Authored by Fred Reed via Fred On Everything blog, I have followed China’s development, its stunning advance in forty years from impoverished Third World to a huge economy, its rapid scientific progress. Coming from nowhere it now runs neck and neck with the US in supercomputers, does world-class work in genetic engineering and genomics (the Beijing Genomics Institutes), quantum computing and quantum radar, in scientific publications. It lags in many things, but the speed of advance, the intense focus on progress, is remarkable. Recently, after twelve years away, I returned for a couple of weeks to Chungdu and Chong Quing, which I found amazing. American patriots of the lightly read but growly sort will bristle at the thought that the Chinese may have political and economic systems superior to ours, but, well, China rises while the US flounders. They must be doing something right. In terms of economic systems, the Chinese are clearly superior. China runs a large economic surplus, allowing it to invest heavily in infrastructure and in resources abroad. America runs a large deficit. China invests in China, America in the military. China’s infrastructure is new, of high quality, and growing. America’s slowly deteriorates. China has an adult government that gets things done. America has an essentially absentee Congress and a kaleidoscopically shifting cast of pathologically aggressive curiosities in the White House. America cannot compete with a country far more populous of more-intelligent people with competent leadership and the geographic advantage of being in Eurasia. Washington’s choices are either to start a major war while it can, perhaps force the world to submit through sanctions, or resign itself to America’s becoming just another country. Given the goiterous egos inside the Beltway Bubble, this is not encouraging. To compare the two countries, look at them as they are, not as we are told they are. We are told that dictatorships, which China is, are nightmarish, brutal, do not allow the practice of religion or freedom of expression and so on. The usual examples are Pol Pot, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, and North Korea, of whom the criticisms are true. By contrast, we are told, America is envied by the world for its democracy, freedom of speech, free press, high moral values, and freedom of religion. This is nonsense. In fact the two countries are more similar than we might like to believe, with America converging fast on the Chinese model. The US is at best barely democratic. Yes, every four years we have a hotly contested presidential election, full of sound and fury signifying nothing. The public has no influence over anything of importance: the wars, the military budget, immigration, offshoring of jobs, what our children are taught in school, or foreign or racial policy We do not really have freedom of speech. Say “nigger” once and you can lose a job of thirty years. Or criticize Jews, Isreal, blacks, homosexuals, Muslims, feminists, or transexuals. The media strictly prohibit any criticism of these groups, or anything against abortion or in favor of gun rights, or any coverage of highly profitable wars that might turn the public against them, or corruption in Congress or Wall Street, or research on the genetics of intelligence. Religion? Christianity is not illegal, but heavily repressed under the Constitutionally nonexistent doctrine of separation of church and state. Surveillance? Monitoring of the population is intense in China and getting worse. It is hard to say just how much NSA monitors us, but America is now a land of cameras, electronic readers of license plates, recording of emails and telephone conversations. The tech giants increasingly censor political sites, and surveillance in our homes appears about to get much worse. Here we might contemplate Lincoln’s famous dictum, “You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.” Being a politician, he did not add a final clause that is the bedrock of American government, “But you can fool enough of the people enough of the time.” You don’t have to keep websites of low circulation from being politically incorrect. You just have to tell the majority, via the mass media, over and over and over, what you wnat them to believe. The dictatorship in China is somewhat onerous, but has little in common with the sadistic lunacy of Pol Pot’s Cambodia. In China you do not buck the government, propaganda is heavy, and communications monitored. If people accept this, as most do, they are free to start businesses, bar hop, smoke dope (which a friend there tells me is common though illegal) engage in such consumerism as they increasingly can afford and lead what an American would call normal lives. A hellhole it is not. Socially China has a great advantage over America in that, except for the Muslims of Xinjiang, it is pretty much a Han monoculture. Lacking America’s racial diversity, its cities do not burn, no pressure exists to infantilize the schools for the benefit of incompetent minorities, racial mobs do not loot stores, and there is very little street crime. America’s huge urban pockets of illiteracy do not exist. There is not the virulent political division that has gangs of uncontrolled Antifa hoodlums stalking public officials. China takes education seriously, as America does not. Students study, behave as maturely as their age would suggest, and do not engage in middle-school politics. In short, China does not appear to be in irremediable decadence. America does. An intelligent dictatorship has crucial advantages over a chaotic pseudo-democracy. One is stability of policy. In America, we look to the next election in two, four, or six years. Businesses focus on the next quarter’s bottom line. Consequently policy flipflops. One administration has no interest in national health care, the next administration institutes it, and the third wants to eliminate it. Because policies are pulled and hauled in different directions by special interests–in this case Big Pharma, insurance companies, the American Medical Association, and so on–the result is an automobile with five wheels, an electric motor but no batteries, and a catalytic converter that doesn’t work. After twenty-four years, from Bush II until Trump leaves, we will neither have nor not have national health care. China’s approach to empire is primarily commercial, America’s military. The former turns a profit without firing a shot, and the latter generates a huge loss as the US tries to garrison the world. Always favoring coercion, Washington now tries to batter the planet into submission via tariffs, sanctions, embargoes, and so on. Whether it will work, or force the rest of the world to band together against America, remains to be seen. Meanwhile the Chinese economy grows. America builds aircraft carriers. China builds railroads, this one in Laos. A dictatorship can simply do things. It can plan twenty, or fifty, years down the road. If some massive engineering project will produce great advantages in thirty years, but be a dead loss until then, China can just do it. And often has. When I was in Chengdu, Beijing opened the Hongkong–Zhuhai-Macau oceanic bridge, thirty-our miles long. The bridge. The US would take longer to decide to build it than the Chinese took actually to build it. In the US? California wants high-speed rail from LA to San Fran. It has talked and wrangled for years without issue. The price keeps rising. The state can’t get rights of way because too many private owners have title to the land. Eminent domain? Conservatives would scream about sacred rights to property, liberals that Hispanic families were in the path, and airlines would bribe Congress to block it. America does not know how to build high-speed rail and hiring China would arouse howling about national security, balance of payments, and the danger to motherhood and virginity. There will be no high speed rail, there or, probably, anywhere else. Wreckage from the 8.0 earthquake. This is not un-repaired devastation but, weirdly, is kept as a tourist attraction and actually propped up so it won’t collapse further. Phredfoto. China has a government that can do things: In 2008 an 8.0 quake devastated the region near the Tibetan border, killing, according to the Chinese government, some 100,000 people. Buildings put up long before simply collapsed. Some years ago everything–the town, the local dam, and roads and houses–had been completely rebuilt, with structural steel so as, says the government, to withstand another such quake. Compare this with the unremedied wreckage in New Orleans due to Katrina. Here we come to an important cultural or philosophical difference between the two countries. Many Orientals, to include the Chinese, view society as a collective instead of as a Wild West of individuals. In the East, one hears sayings like, “The nail that stands up is hammered down,” or “The high-standing flower is cut.” Americans who teach school in China report that students will not question a professor, even if he spouts arrant nonsense to see how they will react. They are not stupid. They know that the Neanderthals did not build a moon base in the early Triassic. But they say nothing. This collectivism, highly disagreeable to Westerners (me, for example) has pros and cons. It makes for domestic tranquility and ability to work together, and probably accounts in large part for China’s stunning advances. On the other hand, it is said to reduce inventiveness. There may be something to this. If you look at centuries of Chinese painting, you will see that each generation largely made copies of earlier masters. As nearly as I, a non-expert, can tell, there is more variety and imagination in the Corcoran Gallery’s annual exhibition of high-school artists than in all of of Chinese paining. People alarmed at China’s growth point out hopefully that the Chinese in America have not founded Googles or Microsofts. No, though certainly have founded huge companies: Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, for example. However, the distinction between inventiveness and really good engineering is not always clear, and the Chinese are fine engineers. With American education crashing under the attacks of Social Justice Warriors, basing the future on a lack of Chinese imagination seems maybe a bit too adventurous.
WE HAVE THE WORST POLITICAL CLASS IN OUR HISTORY: Michael Barone: Who’s to blame? Weak leaders, weak institutions, weak voters? In the wake of the midterm elections, conservative analyst Yuval Levin saw no winners. “It is the weakness of all sides, and the strength of none, that shapes this moment.” You can see what he […]
Most of the British Royal Family are poised and polite. However, Queen Elizabeth's cousin by marriage, Princess Michael of Kent is rather embarrassing.
Zachary Keck Security, Asia Or, as Seoul calls them, "amphibious assault ship". Compared to the Izumos, the Dokdos would have to undergo significant renovations to be able to carry the F-35Bs—should Seoul purchase them. In fact, Robert Farley has suggested that the Dokdos probably could not be converted to F-35B carriers without losing their amphibious capabilities. South Korea has launched its second amphibious assault ship. (This first appeared earlier in the year.) On May 14, South Korean officials launched the second Dokdo-class helicopter carrier. The ceremony took place in Busan at the shipyard of Hanjin Heavy Industries and Construction, the company that built the vessel. Among those in attendance were Defense Minister Song Young-moo and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Um Hyun-seong, according to local news outlets. Construction of the second Dokdo-class amphibious assault ship, named Marado, began in 2016. The ship will be the second largest ship in the Republic of Korea’s Navy, after the first Dokdo-class ship. Displacing 14,500 tons, the ship has a width of thirty-one meters and a length of 199 meters. The Marado can also sail at speeds approaching forty-one kilometers per hour. According to Yonhap News Agency, “It has a 20-mm Phalanx close-in weapons system, as well, while the Dokdo [the first ship in the class] is installed with the 30-mm Goalkeeper gun.” The Marado will be delivered to the South Korean Navy in late 2020 following testing. Recommended: The World’s Most Secretive Nuclear Weapons Program. Recommended: The Fatal Flaw That Could Take Down an F-22 or F-35. Read full article
Forty-six million children in India are stunted because of malnutrition and 25 million more defined as 'wasted'.
David Axe Security, The Air Force just massed an amazing array of fire power. It just might have been in the wrong place. On Nov. 19, 2018, two U.S. Air Force wings in Utah launched thirty-five F-35 stealth fighters in a short span of time. The air force lauded the display as evidence of America's overwhelming military might. At least one critic dismissed it as a publicity stunt. In fact, there's one region where mass-takeoffs are an important military procedure: the Korean Peninsula. Ironically, that's the one region where the Trump administration is deliberately limiting the flying branch's authority to organize large-scale warplane-launches. The November group-takeoff, which the air force calls an "elephant walk," involved F-35As from the 388th and 419th Fighter Wings at Hill Air Force Base. The active-duty 388th and reserve 419th train air force F-35 pilots. The 388th's 34th Fighter Squadron, whose F-35s have the latest Block 3F software, also has a front-line role. In late 2017, it became the first air force F-35 unit to deploy overseas, to Japan. At the time of the elephant walk—the first for the F-35—the Utah wings possessed around forty F-35s. The wings are on track to receive a combined seventy-two F-35s by 2019. The Hill stealth fighters took off one at a time in roughly 30-second intervals. In just a few minutes, the wings launched as many F-35 sorties as they normally do in a full day of routine training. "Exercising with multiple squadrons of F-35s can demonstrate our ability to defeat potential adversaries wherever they may arise," Maj. Caleb Guthmann, the 34th Fighter Squadron's assistant director of operations, said in a statement. But Valerie Insinna, a reporter for Defense News, echoed a more cynical sentiment when, on Twitter, she described the elephant walk as "cool" but "very choreographed." “Call me when they fix all the ALIS problems and then we'll talk,” Insinna added, referring to the F-35's buggy Autonomic Logistics Information System, a computer network for the type's maintainers. Read full article
Forty-one percent of students report incidents ranging from sexualised comments to rape, according to surveyHave you been affected by sexual harassment at university?Sexual misconduct by university staff is rife on campuses, with more than four in 10 students reporting that they have suffered unwelcome advances and assault, including sexualised comments, inappropriate touching and rape, research shows.In a survey of 1,839 current and former students by the National Union of Students (NUS) and campaigners the 1752 Group, to be published on Tuesday, 41% of respondents said they had faced unwelcome sexual advances and innuendo from university staff. Continue reading...
More than forty senior academics write to condemn what they see as an anti-Corbyn bias in media coverage of the antisemitism debateOne of the main concepts in journalism education is that of framing: the highlighting of particular issues, and the avoidance of others, in order to produce a desired interpretation. We have been reminded of the importance of framing when considering the vast amounts of media coverage of Jeremy Corbyn’s alleged failure to deal with antisemitism inside the Labour party. On Sunday, three national titles led with the story while news bulletins focused on the allegations all last week. Dominant sections of the media have framed the story in such a way as to suggest that antisemitism is a problem mostly to do with Labour and that Corbyn is personally responsible for failing to deal with it. The coverage has relied on a handful of sources such as the Board of Deputies, the Jewish Leadership Council and well-known political opponents of Corbyn himself.Yet where are the Jewish voices who support Corbyn and who welcome his long-established anti-racist record? Where are the pieces that look at the political motivations of some of Corbyn’s most vocal critics? Where is the fuss in your news columns about the rising tide of antisemitism in Europe, such as in Hungary, where the Fidesz government has used antisemitic tropes to bolster its support, or in Poland, where the government is attempting to criminalise revelations about the country’s antisemitic past? Where are the columns condemning the links between Conservative MEPs and rightwing parties across Europe in the European Conservatives and Reformists Group which trade on antisemitism? Continue reading...
These popular celebrities took weight loss to the extreme. We definitely don't recommend following their diets.
Sebastien Roblin History, Europe Thought to be carrying V-2 ballistic missiles, the U.S. Navy hunted for Attack Group Seewolf, a U-boat wolfpack destined for the U.S. East Coast. In the closing weeks of World War II in Europe, American intelligence determined that a detachment of German submarines had been dispatched to launch a cruise missile attack on the East Coast of the United States. The U.S. Navy deployed forty-six ships and dozens of aircraft to annihilate the incoming submarine wolf pack. The battle that followed saw hundreds of lives lost at sea, and showed American intelligence services at their very best—and worst. Nazi Germany was the first nation to deploy cruise and ballistic missiles in combat. The V1 “Buzz Bomb” could fly more than 180 miles powered by a pulse jet before slamming into its target. The slightly longer-range V-2 could shoot up to fifty-five miles high in its ballistic trajectory before plunging unstoppably towards the ground. Both weapons killed thousands of civilians in London and Western European cities. However, the United States remained far out of reach. Nonetheless, the possibility that the so-called “vengeance weapons” might be mounted on submarines and used to sow chaos along the eastern seaboard of the United States did not escape Allied commanders. After the FBI interrogated a German spy rescued from a destroyed U-Boat, J. Edgar Hoover warned Washington on October 25, 1944, that Germany was planning a submarine-launched buzz bomb attack on the United States. Supposedly, reconnaissance photos depicted what appeared to be launch rails on U-Boats penned in Norway. Two more spies, arrested in December 1944, gave similar accounts of a submarine-launched missile program. In Berlin, minister of war production Albert Speer promised that missiles would fall on New York by February. Recommended: This Is How China Would Invade Taiwan (And How to Stop It). Recommended: The Story of the F-52 Fighter. Recommended: The 5 Biggest Nuclear Bomb Tests (From All 6 Nuclear Powers). Read full article
Kyle Mizokami Security, Today Patriot is on the front lines across the world, from South Korea and Taiwan to Turkey, Israel and Yemen. For nearly forty years, one air-defense system has protected the airspace above U.S. forces. Continuously upgraded since introduction, today the Patriot missile system protects against the full spectrum of flying threats, from ballistic missiles to consumer-grade quadcopter drones. The design of Patriot goes back as far as 1965, when then secretary of defense Robert McNamara authorized development of a new air-defense missile, SAM-D. SAM-D was set to replace the Nike Hercules surface-to-air missile systems and protect against medium- to high-altitude threats. Patriot was intended to be a new-generation system that would incorporate new technologies, including computer control, multiple target engagement, and the ability to operate in an electronic-countermeasures-heavy environment. As ambitious as SAM-D was, it had a lengthy development cycle. In 1973 it was nearly terminated by Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger, who, among other things, believed that a long-range surface-to-air missile was an Air Force responsibility and that the system was overly complicated. By 1975, it had proved its ability to shoot down targets, and around then was renamed MIM-104 Patriot. Patriot stands for Phased Array Tracking Intercept of Target, although it’s unclear what came first—the name or the acronym. Patriot entered low-rate production in 1980, with the missile first fielded in 1985. (This first appeared last year.) Unlike the older Nike Hercules system, Patriot was truck-mounted and mobile. A firing battery could roll into position and be ready to fire in a less than an hour. A battery consisted of a phased array radar set, engagement control station, electric power plant, an antenna mast group, communications relay group, and up to eight launching stations controlling four missiles each. Recommended: The Story of the F-52 Fighter. Recommended: The 5 Biggest Nuclear Bomb Tests (From All 6 Nuclear Powers). Read full article
RASMUSSEN: Most Voters Aren’t Swayed by Stormy Daniels’ Claims. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters closely followed news reports about the Daniels interview, with 21% who followed those reports Very Closely. Forty-five percent (45%) didn’t pay close attention to the “60 Minutes” interview, including another […]
This is why it's called tit-for-tat. The Kremlin had vowed to retaliate against the "provocative gesture", denying it had any role in the attack; and now it has. Just days after Trump announced he - together with much of the Western world - would expel 60 Russian diplomats from the US, and close the Russian consulate in Seattle, moments ago the Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said U.S. Ambassador Jon Huntsman has been summoned to the Foreign Ministry. Huntsman was given notice that Russia is responding quid pro quo to the U.S. decision to order 60 Russian diplomats out. Lavrov said Moscow will also retaliate to the U.S. decision to shut the Russian consulate in Seattle by closing the U.S. consulate in St. Petersburg. Earlier this week, Haaretz reports that the Russian Embassy in the United States tweeted a poll quickly after the U.S. announcement asking which U.S. consulate they should close in retaliation. Forty-seven percent of the responders said the U.S. consulate in St. Petersburg should be closed. However, that is just the response to Washington. In total, dozens more Russian diplomats were expelled from numerous other nations: You will find more infographics at Statista And Lavrov said the same approach will be applied to other nations that expelled Russian diplomats this week.
In what Reuters has dubbed a massive "show of force", dozens of Chinese warships have been observed on satellite imagery, exercising with an aircraft carrier and warplanes above the heavily-disputed South China Sea, as part of the previously noted massive military drills, which the PLA ominously said were "in preparation for war." The four images, provided by Planet Labs for Reuters confirms the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning joined the annual naval war drill earlier this week. Our Doves caught stunning naval exercises in the open ocean. Read more @reuters and zoom for an enhanced view. https://t.co/7McG2qtNWw pic.twitter.com/FnbNLVN5yk — Planet (@planetlabs) March 27, 2018 According to the Taiwan Defense & National Security ministry, late last week Taiwan sent two ships and military aircraft to shadow the Chinese aircraft carrier group through the narrow Taiwan Strait. The images, taken on Monday by Planet Labs flock of miniature satellites, show at least forty naval vessels, submarines, and aircraft in what some military strategist “described as an unusually large display of the Chinese military’s growing naval might,” said Reuters. Up to forty naval vessels can be seen in a line formation, while submarines flank the aircraft carrier called Liaoning labeled below. Jeffrey Lewis, the director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), told Reuters: “It is an incredible picture. That is the big news to me. Confirmation that, yes, the carrier participated in the exercise.” Liaoning, a Type 001 aircraft carrier, is the first aircraft carrier commissioned into the People’s Liberation Army Navy Surface Force, a branch of the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Some military strategists believe that China could use the carrier group and its militarized islands to defend its maritime territorial and exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as well as claims in the East China (ECS) and the South China Sea (SCS). Collin Koh, a security expert at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, told Reuters that the deployment of warships is “unusual for its size and scope.” “Judging by the images, it does seem they are keen to show that elements of the South Sea Fleet are able to routinely join up with the carrier strike group from Dalian in the north,” he said. “It does seem they want to show inter-fleet interoperability – something the (Chinese) navy has been quietly working on for some time.” Koh further said the show of naval force was also accompanied by “destroyers, frigates and submarines” that would normally support a carrier group, the flotilla even included a “large oiler for re-supply as well as smaller corvettes and possibly fast attack catamarans.” “While it highlights an extensive ability to deploy, we are still left to guess at China’s combat readiness,” Koh said. There are still many unknowns surrounding the final destination and duration of the exercise. Nevertheless, Marine Traffic shows that the drill is being conducted in some of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. The drill comes amid increasing tensions in the South China Sea, with Vietnam, China, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan; which all have overlapping claims to the resource-rich waterway. Claims on the South China Sea explained below: What does this all mean? For China to keep peace in the South China Sea, it requires Beijing to conduct continuous large-scale deterrence naval operations in the region. This will be the first of many such "deterrence" ops in which China will parade its massive fleet of warships throughout the heavily contested waters. However, neither Beijing nor Washington want war in the region; at least for the foreseeable future. Still, China’s worst-case scenario, in which someone does take it on its dare, might have been realized with the new addition of President Trump’s new National Security Advisor John Bolton. For that reason, the situation in the South China Sea will continue becoming tenser in the months ahead.
Forty-five percent of those surveyed said global warming would pose a serious threat in their lifetimes, the highest level recorded since Gallup first asked in 1997.
This is for another friend, here are my pointers: 1. Find a very good food street/corner and take many of your meals there. I’ve used Rue Daguerre and around Rue des Arts (Left Bank) for this purpose, but there are many others. Spend most of your money in the cheese shop, asking them to choose for […] The post My advice for a Paris visit appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
This morning, residents of the city of Kemerovo made a rally to the building of the regional administration. The protesters demanded that all the regional government must retire at once, and they wanted to know the exact number of victims of fire. Many townspeople do not believe in the official numbers of victims. On top of that - the local people are dissatisfied with the fact that, in their opinion, too few firefighters were involved in extinguishing the fire. "The expulsion of Russian diplomats from the United States and EU countries is a hostile act" - such was the statement of the permanent representative of Russia in the UN Vasily Nebenzia. He added that the USA dared to send out diplomats from the territory that is not under their jurisdiction, by which Vasily meant the 12 diplomats working in the UN. Moscow is currently preparing an official response to this event. The Turkish Armed Forces General Staff reported that as a result of the air strike of the Turkish Air Forces in the Kandil area in northern Iraq - forty-one members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party were neutralized. "Our air forces attacked the objects of members of a separatist terrorist organization, that was preparing attacks on March 22 in the Kandil district of northern Iraq. As a result - 41 terrorists were neutralized," - The Turkish Armed Forces General Staff announced on Twitter. Syrian army is preparing an assault on the city of Duma. The flanking units of the army have finished the redeployment to the outer areas of the city. At the moment, negotiations of freeing the city peacefully are continuing, but the terrorists still reject the proposals of the government. The German Federal Office for Shipping and Hydrography authorized the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline in the German exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea. The official notification of March 27th states that the agency did not find any obstacles for the pipeline laying on the seabed area of 31 km in length. Russian president Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which March 28th of 2018 was declared the day of nationwide mourning in Russia, in connection with the tragedy in the city of Kemerovo, which killed 64 people, the Kremlin press service reported. ___________________________ Агентство ANNA-News это волонтерский проект. Волонтеры ANNA-News ведут свои репортажи с мест событий, снимают видеоролики и публикуют аналитические статьи по проблеме национальной безопасности России и ее союзников в современных военно-политических условиях. ANNA-News это самые последние и актуальные новости из районов боевых действий Более подробно на сайте http://anna-news.info Помочь материально: http://anna-news.info/помощь-агентству-anna-news/ Мы в соцсетях: Вконтакте https://vk.com/anna_news Facebooke https://www.facebook.com/newsanna/ Twitter https://twitter.com/annanews_info Instagram https://www.instagram.com/anna_news.info/
Via GEFIRA, The speed with which the German population is shrinking seems to be even too much for the statisticians of Destatis, the official German bureau of statistics, who posit that by 2060, with a zero level of net immigration, the German population will have declined to 60,2 million. However, our research team has found out that this number is far too optimistic: in 40 years Germany will have a population of 52,6 million people, a considerable 34% drop from the current 81 million inhabitants, and by the end of the century the native German population, the indigenous people without a migration background, will have shrunk even further and be approaching 21,6 million. The explanation that Destatis has mailed us is tantamount to admitting that their projections are unrealistic. If the German elites succeed in maintaining their population at 80 million, in 2060 the majority of naturalized Germans will have no historical relation to the nation’s ancestors who were once proud subjects of the Holy Roman Empire. Moreover, they will stand in the same relation to Albert Schweitzer, Johann Sebastian Bach, Karl Benz and Friedrich Nietzsche as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stands to the Byzantine emperors. The excessive numbers of migrants will have altered the German nation forever. There will be no relation between future Germans and the German past By 2050 many of the German historical figures, like Albert Schweitzer mentioned above, will be unmasked as racists and consequently removed from street names and history books and replaced with new heroes, a process that is already taking place in the US and the Netherlands. In the former, monuments to southern generals are under attack, whereas in the latter, migrant parties are pressing for Dutch historical figures to be eradicated from public spaces, streets to be renamed and their most important traditions, which are allegedly not inclusive, oppressive or insulting to national, racial or religious minorities to be prohibited. A country’s history should be about the past deeds of its people, but when people are replaced there is no connection with the past and it may happen that before this century is out, the majority of German citizens will have their cultural roots and their ancestors outside Germany or even outside Europe. While one may label these predictions as scaremongering, this does not make them unreliable. Demographic forecasts, granting there are no unpredictable changes like outbreaks of epidemics or famine, are remarkably accurate. Consider the comparison of the results obtained by Destatis and us for the zero-migration model. In Germany, an average woman gives birth to 1.4 children, this is below the replacement fertility level and it has not changed much since the 1970s. This is why the German population began to shrink. The trend has been reversed due to the 1.3 million non EU-immigrants who have arrived in the country since 2015. Cerberus 2.0 computes the future of the German population The Gefira team developed Cerberus 2.0, a software program, to calculate how a population grows or declines in the absence of migration. Using only death and birth rates, Cerberus 2.0 can compute what the size of the German society should be without the influx of foreigners and their offspring. The application begins by doing the calculations on the basis of the 1965 census taken from Destatis. We started with the year 1965 because we wanted to measure the German population growth without immigration, and we assumed that in that year there were not that many immigrants. We did not use the official detailed Destatis data for the subsequent years because these included immigrants i.e. the factor we wanted to exclude. While Destatis gives the total numbers of migrants currently living in Germany, Cerberus 2.0 independently computes the development of each age group of the indigenous German population starting with 1965 and ending in 2100, and for all years in between. We are aware that there are mixed relations and that there are also Germans who have left the country. Because some mixed parents will Germanize their children, while others will do the opposite, we assume that this will not affect our results. Thus, with the aid of Cerberus 2.0 we calculated that if there had been no migration, the German population of 1965 would have been 64,99 million people strong in 2013. This is confirmed by Destatis, which puts the number of Germans without a migration background for the same year at 64.29 million. It shows that our computations are extremely accurate but also that there are hardly any third generation migrants in Germany who are regarded as native Germans. The Destatis demographic model is a mere fantasy We also did the calculation for the years 2013-2060, taking the population of 2013 as a starting point, and compared our results with those forecast by Destatis for the same period. According to Destatis, in 2060 the population will be 60.2, while Cerberus 2.0 predicts only 52,6 million inhabitants in Germany. The enormous difference of nearly 8 million between the two forecasts can only be explained by assuming that Destatis is very creative in their demographic forecasting, as we will explain shortly. For Germany, Cerberus 2.0 processed the death and birth rates provided by Destatis. The demographic data – the percentage of mothers who gave birth, that is the Age-Specific Fertility Rate, and the percentage of people who died – were broken down into age groups. The Age-Specific Fertility Rate for 1965 allowed Cerberus 2.0 to calculate the number of children born in the next year, which is the number of women in a particular age group multiplied by the said rate for the relevant age group. The death rate for the same year was also taken into account. Having calculated the births and deaths, the application increased the ages of each age group by one year to create the entire population of 1966 without the influence of immigration. Then the program began the whole process again to compute the data for the year 1967, the consecutive year, and so on and so forth. For the calculations beyond 2015, Cerberus 2.0 used the age-specific death and fertility rates for 2015. We then compared the Cerberus 2.0 projections with those of Destatis. Both Destatis and our research team began with the initial population of 2013, which was 81 million, and we both used the same fertility rate of 1.4. Neither took into account the 1.3 million non-Western immigrants that entered Germany after 2014. The obtained results differed significantly: Cerberus 2.0 forecast 52,6 whereas Destatis – 60,2 million inhabitants in Germany in 2060. Populations grow and shrink due to only four factors; births, deaths, immigration and emigration. The Cerberus 2.0 zero-migration model only uses the death and birth rates, whereas Destatis adds 600.000 young immigrants and removes 600.000 old emigrants every year from its model. That means that every year 600.000 young men and women arrive in Germany, bear children and when those children come of age the parents leave the country like cuckoos, a rather strange assumption. The consequence is that immigrants themselves do not add to the population, but their children do. In the Destatis model the immigration and emigration balance is kept at zero. How does Destatis arrive at these numbers? In 2014 there were 331 thousand women born. After seven years this same group of women is projected by Destatis to grow to 333 thousand, and after 27 years, in 2041, it is projected to reach a peak of 350 thousand, in other words in 2021 there will be fewer women born than in 2041! How is this possible? Only if immigrant women are included in the statistics. Since in this model there are as many migrants entering the country as leaving it, the first generation migrants do not add to the total population. However, these migrants have on average 170 thousand children annually. These children enlarge the German population, but Destatis does not regard them as foreigners. Hence, the Destatis zero immigration prognosis is false and yields a far too “rosy” projection for the future of Germany. The response from Destatis on the difference between our findings and theirs is that their projection is formally accurate and the difference is a result of the fact that we assumed a zero migration model – no migration at all, whereas they assumed a balance zero migration model. Germany, like most of the West, is subjected to mass immigration on an unprecedented scale, and according to the new German government the process will continue for the foreseeable future. Due to the refugee relocation, the number of the non-EU population increased by 1.3 million between January 2015 and June 2017. The new government has decided that the country should grow by 200 thousand asylum seekers annually. To understand the effect of this policy on German society, one has to compare this number with the number of German newborns. According to Cerberus 2.0, the number of native Germans that are born will decrease from about 450 thousand in 2020 to 315 thousand within the following twenty years. The addition of 200 thousand relatively young asylum seekers year after year, plus their offspring, will alter the German society profoundly within 40 to 60 years and Germany will cease to be a German country. By the end of the century there will be 22 million Germans left The 1965 German population will shrink to 37.8 million within the coming forty years, and to 21,6 million by the end of the century. In 2060, the number of indigenous Germans will amount to half of that of East and West Germany combined in 1945. Given the below-replacement birth rates among the indigenous people, the German governments can only keep the current number of inhabitants at 80 million by importing immigrants, thus in the long run, for all practical purposes, replacing indigenous Germans. The idea that the new arrivals will integrate or assimilate is complete nonsense i.e. the new Germans are not going to be German. The main reason people relocate to Germany is for personal welfare rather than German culture. Immigrants maintain their religion and heritage, form political parties, build religious institutions, have their separate shops and even want to have their own legal system. Given the sheer numbers that are flocking into Germany, there is no way that the Germans can uphold their political structure, language and cultural identity. It takes a long time for a super tanker to change course. Similarly, demographic changes are not visible until after at least 15 to 30 years. Accepting 1.3 million foreigners within two years and adding 200 thousand non-European migrants annually to the rapidly shrinking German population will already have had a devastating effect on the German population by 2030. The results of Cerberus 2.0 show us that the discussion about migration is not about accepting and protecting the right of minorities; rather, it is about an existential question, it is about the preservation of the Germans. When the German ruling elites begin to understand their failing policies, it will be too late. There are no examples in history when these kinds of massive changes have ended well.
Sebastien Roblin Security, Asia But will it happen? When the Times of India revealed that the Indian air force was revising its single-engine fighter competition to encompass twin-engine jet designs, a collective groan likely rang from New Delhi to Washington—and even Stockholm. The competition was meant to acquire a new generation of short-range jets suitable for defending India’s borders. The Indian air force is gradually retiring its 1950s-era MiG-21 single-engine fighter jets over the next few decades. Currently, it has only thirty-three squadrons of combat aircraft out of a planned forty-four, with ten more squadrons set to retire their aircraft over the coming decade. An analyst quoted by the Times of India characterized India’s Ministry of Defense as “constantly changing their rules, changing their minds” and having a “knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.” The exasperation stems from two factors. The first is that the single-engine competition had narrowed down to just two choices, the American F-16 and Swedish JAS 39 Gripen. If the government had simply stuck to the original guidelines, the Indian air force could have begun receiving 115 new fighters by the early 2020s and retained domestic production facilities to build even more if desired. Recommended: We Went Aboard the Most Powerful Aircraft Carrier Ever Built. Recommended: This Is How China Would Invade Taiwan (And How to Stop It). Recommended: The Story of the F-52 Fighter. Read full article
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