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22 февраля, 02:31

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares plunge after court's ruling

Shares of the two government-backed mortgage backers fell more than 30 percent.

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22 февраля, 02:31

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares plunge after court's ruling

Shares of the two government-backed mortgage backers fell more than 30 percent.

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22 февраля, 00:14

Government Wins Flexibility on Fannie and Freddie

A major court ruling underscores that what to do with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is a political question.

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21 февраля, 20:52

Fannie, Freddie shares dive after U.S. appeals court ruling

(Reuters) - Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled more than 30 percent on Tuesday after a U.S. appeals court shut down efforts by hedge funds and other investors to pursue numerous legal...

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21 февраля, 19:37

Fannie, Freddie Plunge After Court Rules Hedge Funds Can't Sue

Moments ago, the stocks of the nationalized GSEs - Fannies and Freddie - tumbled by over 30%, after a federal appeals court upheld a ruling that barred hedge funds from suing to overturn the U.S. government’s 2012 decision to capture billions of dollars in the profits generated by the mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after their bailout. According to Bloomberg, which first reported the ruling, some Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac investors still have a shot at money damages, based on when they acquired their shares and whether they did so before or after the Federal Housing Finance Agency was created and then imposed its control over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They can pursue breach of contract claims, the appeals panel said in a split 2-1 decision Tuesday. “It’s a little too early for me to announce what our response will be other than to say what these breach of contract claims were always the central claims in this case,” said Hamish Hume, a Washington-based attorney with Boies Schiller Flexner LLP, who represented some of the prevailing shareholders. In place since January 2013, the controversial net worth sweep allowed the U.S. to recapture all of the $187 billion in taxpayer money it spent to stave off the companies’ collapse during the global fiscal crisis and as of 2016, at least $56 billion more. All of that without reducing Treasury’s liquidation stake in either firm. As Bloomberg adds, the court, which included two judges selected by Republican presidents and one picked by a Democrat, heard arguments on April 15. It later allowed additional friend-of-the-court briefs to be filed by allies on each side, solicited still more submissions concerning a jurisdictional question and permitted the investors’ filing of evidence produced in sweep-related cases pending before other courts. Their ruling may yet be subject to U.S. Supreme Court review. The U.S. Treasury Department press office did not immediately reply to an e-mailed request for comment. David Thompson, an attorney for the suing Fairholme Funds Inc. did not immediately respond to a voice-mail message seeking comment. The appellate decision follows Fannie Mae’s Nov. 3 report in which it said it made a $3.2 billion profit in the third quarter of 2016, the company’s 19th straight quarterly profit. Those profits were more than the $1.96 billion earned in the same quarter a year earlier. The company had said it would send $3 billion to the Treasury in December, bringing its total payments to $154.4 billion.   Two days earlier, the smaller Freddie Mac said it made a $2.3 billion profit during the third quarter of this year and would send the same amount to the U.S.   Sweep terms let the companies retain an annually diminishing capital buffer that phases out in 2018, meaning any losses later sustained will require one or both to draw on taxpayer funds. Meanwhile, some prominent hedge funds investors - most notably Bill Ackman and Richard Perry -  have been actively pushing the government to revert to the GSE status quo, as existed prior to the 2008 bailouts, convinced it would unlock substantial stakeholder value. Today, however, that won't be the case.

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20 февраля, 18:36

Fannie and Freddie: REO inventory declined in Q4, Down 33% Year-over-year

Fannie and Freddie reported results last week. Here is some information on Real Estate Owned (REOs).Freddie Mac reported the number of REO declined to 11,418 at the end of Q4 2106 compared to 17,004 at the end of Q4 2015.For Freddie, this is down 85% from the 74,897 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. For Freddie, this is the lowest since at least 2007.Fannie Mae reported the number of REO declined to 38,093 at the end of Q4 2016 compared to 57,253 at the end of Q4 2015.For Fannie, this is down 77% from the 166,787 peak number of REOs in Q3 2010. For Fannie, this is the lowest since Q4 2007. Click on graph for larger image.Here is a graph of Fannie and Freddie Real Estate Owned (REO). REO inventory decreased in Q4 for both Fannie and Freddie, and combined inventory is down 33% year-over-year. Delinquencies are falling, but there are still a number of properties in the foreclosure process with long time lines in judicial foreclosure states - but this is getting close to normal levels of REOs.

20 февраля, 12:00

Regions Financial (RF) Up 10% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Regions Financial (RF) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stopck? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.

11 февраля, 20:34

7 ДТП за час

авто Sat, 11 Feb 2017 23:39:47 +0600 ramstor 514146 Про финансовый отчет Минфина США за 2016 год http://news2.ru/story/514145/   В США бюджетный год заканчивается 30 сентября. Т.е. 30 сентября 2016 года закончился 2016-й бюджетный год. Потом Минфин США делал отчет об исполнении бюджета и на этой неделе его опубликовал. Отчет интересен тем, что включает баланс федерального правительства. Такой же баланс, который сдают все коммерческие организации. У нас такой практики нет, у нас Минфин не делает баланс. Соответственно, мы не знаем сколько у федерального правительства активов, сколько пассивов. А американцы знают.      Вот баланс.            Активы за год выросли с 3,2 до 3,4 трлн. долларов. Пассивы выросли с 21,5 до 22,7 трлн. долларов. Т.е. чистые активы Правительства США отрицательны. Дырка в балансе составляет 19,3 трлн. долларов. По российскому и по американскому законодательству организация с отрицательными чистыми активами подлежит ликвидации. Но Правительство США это не организация и потому ликвидирована не будет.      Как видите, за год дырка в балансе выросла на 1,05 трлн. долларов. Это означает,  что из-за бездарной экономической и бюджетной политики, США потеряли 1 трлн. долларов. Как так получилось? Ну во-первых, как видите, вырос долг. Долг вырос с 13,1 до 14,2 трлн. долларов. Мы все хорошо знаем, что долг Правительства США составляет 20 трлн. долларов. Почему здесь меньше? Потому что на балансе Правительства США отражается не весь долг. Часть долга висит на балансе Госкорпораций, типа Freddie Mac и Fanny Mae. Как мы знаем рост долга сам по себе не сокращает чистые активы. Если в долг брать с умом, то на заемные средства приобретаются активы (как правило, основные средства) и чистые активы не страдают. Но в США финансы давно разрушены и в долг они берут не на кап вложения (например, на ремонт дорог), а на исполнение соц. обязательств. Поэтому дырка в балансе растет.      Кроме того, на 0,5 трл. долларов выросли обязательства перед госслужащими (пенсии). Это будущие обязательства перед нынешними госслужащими. Финансироваться они будут из будущих налогов, НО в балансе они отражены сейчас, потому что по уму они должны были бы финансироваться из нынешних налогов (работают госслужащие сейчас). Т.е. это долг.      Активы тоже росли,  но не сильно. Выросли выданнные кредиты - 1,27 трлн. долларов. Из этой суммы 1 трлн долларов это образовательные кредиты. В США кредиты на получение высшего образования выдает Правительство, а не банки. Студенты, естественно, эти кредиты не возвращают. Собираемость по этим кредитам только 50%.      1 трлн. долларов стоят основные фонды Правительства (за вычетом амортизации). Это дороги, военные корабли, танки, здание Конгресса и Белый Дом и др.      Как цифра 1,05 трлн. долларов соотносится с дефицитом бюджета США? Никак. Есть другое понятие - Net operating cost, которе нужно соотносить с дефицитом бюджета. Net operating cost это разница между доходами и расходами, но не дефицит. Дефицит бюджета не включает изменение стоимости будущих обязательств Правительства. Смотрите таблицу.             Дефицит бюджета в 2016 году был 587 млрд. долларов, а Net Operating Cost - минус 1,047 трл. долларов. Чистая разница между доходами и расходами выросла с 2015 года вдвое, с минус 514 до минус 1047 млрд. долларов. Если учесть, что все доходы бюджета США - 3,3 трлн. долларов, то 1,05 трлн. долларов это много. Это 30%. Т.е. расходы США в 2016 году превысили доходы на 30%. Вот таков реально масштаб бедствия.      Вот, кстати, доходы бюджета             Как видите, доходы бюджета США на 80% это подоходный налог.      Но это еще не всё. Есть еще разница между будущими соц обязательствами и будущими доходами фондов соц страхования.             Чистая приведенная стоимость разницы будущих доходов и расходов фондов соц. страхования составляет минус 46,7 трлн. долларов. И за год дырка выросла на 5 трлн. долларов. Это пенсии нефедеральных служащих, мед обслуживание пенсионеров, детей и т. д.      Что означат дырка в 46,7 трлн. долларов? Она означает, что нынешнее поколение пенсионеров, малоимущих, детей, инвалидов живет в долг у будущих поколений. На них Правительство США тратит больше, чем может позволить себе при нынешнем уровне процентных ставок.       Т.е. за 2016 год США нарастили свои долги на 6 трлн. долларов при доходах 3,3 трлн. долларов. Вот такая у амеров арифметика. Может ли такое государство долго протянуть? Очевидно,  что нет. Нужно агрессивно резать расходы и социалку. Иначе кирдык. А если порезать социалку, это что ж получится? Получится что США это не страна всеобщего благоденствия, а страна третьего мира. Особенно с учетом того, что инфраструктура изношена и денег на ремонт нет.      P.S.  И да, забыл сказать что Минфин США провалил аудит этого отчета. В Правительстве США есть орган власти - GAO - который проводит аудит отчета Минфина об исполнении бюджета. В этом году аудитор не подтвердил достоверность отчета. В прошлом году было тоже самое. В коммерческих организациях за такое увольняют генерального директора и директора по финансам.(http://monetary-policy.li...)

11 февраля, 18:41

Looking For a Safe Investment With a High Yield? Pay Off Your Mortgage Insurance!

Home purchasers who were obliged to take out private mortgage insurance (PMI) because their down payment was less than 20% of the price have the right to cancel it, ridding themselves of the monthly premium. Borrowers should take advantage of the opportunity if they can but they must meet the cancellation rules. Cancellation Rules Under Federal law, lenders are required to cancel private mortgage insurance on most home mortgage loans made after July 29, 1999. Cancellation will occur automatically when amortization has reduced the loan balance to 78% of the value of the property at the time the loan was made. The borrower cannot accelerate this process with extra payments. Under another provision of this law, lenders must terminate insurance at the borrower's request when the loan balance hits 80% of the original value. Borrowers can accelerate the process of getting to 80% by making extra payments. Warning: A lender need not accept a request for cancellation if the borrower has taken out a second mortgage or had an excessive number of delinquencies in the prior two years, or if the property has declined in value. If Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac own the mortgage, the cancellation rules apply to the current appraised value of the property rather than the value at the time the loan was made. Borrowers can request cancellation after two years if the loan balance is no more than 75% of current appraised value, and after 5 years if it is no more than 80%. The ratios are lower if there is a second mortgage, if the property is held for investment rather than occupancy, if the property is other than single-family, or if the borrower has had recent delinquencies. Paying Off PMI as an Investment Homeowners should view paying off PMI as a potential investment that can yield a high return. Until now, figuring out how large that return was exceeded the capacities of almost all borrowers, but no longer. My colleague Allan Redstone has developed a PMI payoff spreadsheet, which shows the investment required to eliminate PMI, and the rate of return on that investment, for each of three rules: 80% of original value, 75% of current value after 2 years, and 80% of current value after 5 years. The spreadsheet is on my web site and is available for anyone to download. A unique feature of PMI payoff as an investment is that the amount of the investment is a specific dollar amount. Hence, the borrower's decision must consider not only the rate of return but also whether or not they have the exact amount required. Here is an example. Three years ago, the borrower purchased a house for $200,000 with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage of $190,000 at 4%, and a monthly mortgage insurance premium of $65. She expects to be in the house another 4 years. The house is now worth $225,000, requiring an investment of $11,098 to bring the loan balance down to $168,750, which is 75% of $225,000. The return on investment in dollars is the $65 a month insurance premium for 68 months, plus the $14,280 difference in the loan balance in month 84 when the owner expects to sell the house. The rate of return is 8.96% Note that the $65 monthly saving in mortgage insurance extends for only 68 months because in month 69, the ratio of loan balance to original property value falls below 78%, which under the law requires the lender to cancel the policy. Borrowers Paying Higher Premiums Earn a Higher Return The example described above applied to a relatively low-risk transaction that carried a very modest mortgage insurance premium. The transaction assumed a single-family home, a purchase for occupancy, and a credit score of 800. Borrowers with poor credit pay more when they borrow, but there is a reverse side to that coin. When they invest in reducing their obligations, the rate of return is correspondingly high. If the purchaser in my example intended to rent the house rather than occupy it, and if her credit score was 620 rather than 800, her insurance premium would be almost 6 times larger. In that event, the rate of return on the investment required to eliminate the insurance would be 39.26%. How the Passage of Time Affects the Investment Intuitively, it would appear that the sooner you pay down the balance and rid yourself of the PMI premium, the better off you will be, but this may or may not be the case. It depends on the circumstances and preferences of the borrower. Consider the example given earlier where after three years the borrower earns 8.55% on an investment of $11,098. If the same borrower decided to make the investment after 4 years instead of 3, her dollar savings would be smaller because both the number of PMI premium payments and the balance reduction in the payoff month would be smaller. On the other hand, the required investment would be $7326 instead of $11,098, which might make it affordable, and the rate of return on investment would be 10.52% as compared to 8.55%. In general, the longer the borrower waits to pay down the balance to the point where the PMI is eliminated, the smaller is the savings in dollars and in the investment required, but the higher is the rate of return on investment. The power of the spreadsheet is that it allows each individual borrower to adopt the payoff strategy that best fits her needs and capacities. Comparison with Other Investments In comparison to other investments, an investment in PMI payoff ranks very high on default risk, because there is none, and on expected return. The drawback has been the complexity of the process, which has made it difficult to determine exactly what the rate of return is. Eliminating this uncertainty is the reason we developed the spreadsheet. For more unbiased advice on mortgages, visit my website The Mortgage Professor. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

09 февраля, 19:24

Pence hires libertarian Calabria as chief economist

Before joining Cato in 2009, Calabria worked for the Senate Banking Committee,

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09 февраля, 14:42

Asian Stocks Hit 18 Month High; Europe, US Futures Bounce As Dollar Rises

Asian stocks hit their highest level in 18 months, with positive momentum lifting European shares which were helped by Societe Generale earnings. Yields fell on some of the euro zone's battered low-rated bonds as investors put aside the political risks that have dominated markets this week. After trading flat, S&P futures bounced as US traders walked boosted by a spike in the USDJPY, ahead of earnings reports from Coca-Cola, Reynolds American, CVS Health, Nvidia and Twitter. Rising oil prices pushed energy company shares higher in Europe on a busy day of corporate earnings while Asian stocks hit their highest in one and a  half years. "The stabilization of the oil price after its recent wobbles, together with solid earnings, for example, Soc Gen today, is driving the positive sentiment," said Andy Sullivan, portfolio manager with GL Asset Management UK in London. The Euro STOXX 600 index rose 0.4 percent. Bank shares also rose after French lender Societe Generale reported lower fourth-quarter net income that nonetheless beat analysts forecasts. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.3 percent to their highest since July 2015 with Hong Kong, Taiwan and China among the region's best performing markets. Japanese shares, however, fell 0.5 percent, hit by earlier yen strength the day before Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets U.S. President Donald Trump. "We have some relief with investors shrugging off some of their concerns with a feeling that things went too far, too fast," said Martin Van Vliet, senior rates strategist at ING. With much attention recently on global rates, yields on Spanish and Italian 10-year government bonds fell. Earlier this week, concern over the impact of elections this year in countries including France and Germany saw investors sell bonds of lower-rated euro zone countries. Spanish 10-year yields fell 4 basis points to 1.66 percent while Italian equivalents fell 3 bps to 2.2 percent. French yields dipped 1 bps to 1.01 percent. The premium investors demand to hold French rather than German debt hit its highest in four years on Wednesday, three months before the final round of a presidential election expected to include far-right, anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen. Yields on German 10-year bonds, seen as among the world's safest assets, rose 0.5 bps to 0.31 percent. In addition to political worries, bond investors are contemplating the impact of the ECB eventually winding down its bond-buying stimulus scheme, which has driven down borrowing costs in the bloc for the past two years. ECB President Mario Draghi and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, bidding for re-election later this year, meet on Thursday. A number of German officials have called on the ECB to unwind its monetary stimulus. The euro steadied just below $1.07 after falling on Wednesday to a two-week low of $1.0640. The yen fell 0.3 percent to 112.39 per dollar, having earlier traded as strong as 111.70. The dollar index was unchanged. In the US, 10Y yields fell to their lowest since mid-January on Wednesday as investors re-assess how many interest rate rises can be expected from the Federal Reserve and look for clarity over whether Trump will make good on his campaign pledges for tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Ten-year Treasuries yielded 2.36% in European trade on Thursday, up 1.2 bps. Oil prices rose after an unexpected draw down in U.S. gasoline inventories. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 51 cents a barrel, or 0.9 percent, to $55.63. In a sign that political risks are still on the radar, gold held close to three-month highs touched on Wednesday. Spot gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,243 an ounce, compared with from Wednesday's high of $1,244.67. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Major European indices trade positively this morning and general sentiment leans toward risk on The USD continues to trade in limbo, and while traders continue to look across the spectrum of major counterparts, we see there is reluctance to reinstate the US reflation trade, with USD/JPY notably restricted Highlights include Initial Jobless Claims, Speakers include: BoE Govenor Carney, Feds Evans, and Feds Bullard Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,295 Brent Futures up 0.9% to $55.62/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,243.30 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.12 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 364.95 German 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 0.308% Euro up 0.07% to 1.0705 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.9% to $55.62/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 12.1 bps to 2.246% Spanish 10Y yield fell 6.7 bps to 1.629% MXAP down 0.2% to 143.03 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 459.43 Nikkei down 0.5% to 18,907.67 Topix down 0.7% to 1,513.55 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 23,525.14 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,183.18 Sensex up 0.1% to 28,330.91 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,664.62 Kospi up 0.04% to 2,065.88 Top BBG News Anthem Inc.’s $48 billion deal to buy Cigna Corp. was blocked by a federal judge, putting an end to the second of two massive mergers that would have reshaped the U.S. health-care landscape Deutsche Bank AG is shutting down its U.S. swaps-clearing business as part of an overhaul of its investment bank to improve profitability, according to a person briefed on the decision The Senate confirmed one of its own, Jeff Sessions, as attorney general after more than a day of contentious debate that took an unusual turn when Republicans silenced Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren President Donald Trump is injecting himself into the daily business of U.S. companies to an unprecedented extent, spurring investors and executives to weigh their exposure to his wrath when making decisions SoftBank Group Corp. is aiming to close the first round of investment in its planned $100 billion technology fund by the end of this month, giving Chief Executive Officer Masayoshi Son an enormous war chest to go on the hunt for deals, according to people familiar with the matter Boeing Co. is the front-runner as Singapore Airlines Ltd. closes in on an order for at least 35 wide-body aircraft amid a battle with Chinese and Middle Eastern carriers, people familiar with the matter said The global oil market’s march to equilibrium won’t be deterred by the increasing volume of crude being poured into U.S. storage tanks, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Asia equity markets continued its recent choppy trade following a mixed lead from the US where stocks closed mostly higher, although the DJIA underperformed amid weakness in financials. ASX 200 (+0.2%) pared opening losses and finished marginally higher as gains in defensive stocks overshadowed weakness in mining names, while Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was dampened by recent JPY strength although the index finished off worse levels alongside a recovery in USD/JPY. Chinese markets ignored the absence of a PBoC's liquidity injection for the 5th consecutive day as Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) traded positive with the latter led by financials and gambling names. 10yr JGBs were uneventful with prices relatively flat throughout the session, while today's 30yr JGB auction failed to inspire as b/c, prices and the tail-in price deteriorated from the prior month. PBoC refrained from open markets operations for the 5th consecutive day due to high liquidity conditions, which brings the total amount of funds drained so far this week to CNY 715bn. Top Asia News Nissan Operating Profit Falls 15% on Rise in U.S. Incentives Philippines Holds Benchmark Rate as Inflation Pressure Mounts China Car Sales Decline 9.8% After Tax Increase, Lunar New Year China H Shares Rally to 14-Month High as Autos, Financials Climb Banks in Some Chinese Cities Said to Increase Mortgage Rates MTN Close to Buying Stake in Iranian State Internet Provider India’s Jan. Passenger Vehicle Sales Rise 14.4% to 265,320 Units In Europe this morning, major indices trade positively and general sentiment leans toward risk on. In terms of sectors, healthcare is the best performing up 1.1% with materials retracing some of yesterday's gains. Energy names started off on the front foot after Total posted a strong set of results better than those seen by BP earlier on in the week and in the financial sector Commerzbank also reported well but subsequently shares have fallen and are now trading lower by around 3%. In Fixed income markets, UST are in demand due to geopolitical risks hitting the belly with 5YR yield eyeing 180bps and 10 YR yield struggling around 235bps. German paper still in demand due to the internal EU demand away from periphery. Interestingly the GE/FR spread has tightened to 66bps a move of 14bps over the last two day. In terms of this morning's Gilt auction, the line provided a solid bid/cover and smaller tail than previous, although failed to sway Gilts. Top European News SocGen Posts Net That Tops Estimates, Plans Car-Leasing IPO Mediobanca Rises After Second-Quarter Profit Almost Doubles MiFID II Market-Rule Overhaul Faces Crucial Parliament Vote HSBC Said to Seek Wealth Management Asset Acquisitions This Year Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Fined by U.K. for Failing to Be Open Draghi Meets Merkel as Populist Concerns Trump ECB Criticism In currencies, the USD continues to trade in limbo, and while traders continue to look across the spectrum of major counterparts, we see there is reluctance to reinstate the US reflation trade, with USDJPY notably restricted. As such, geopolitical risk dominates, and the lead (risk on) trade maintains a tight range below 112.50. EURUSD has also managed to brush off the EU wide political risks weighing on the single unit. This comes with the Bund spreads (with France) narrowing, but through 1.0700, we are seeing plenty of supply coming in with initial resistance at 1.0715-20 holding. The big move in Asia was NZD on the back of the exchange rate related comments from the central bank, but after a series of losses which saw 0.7200 eventually taken out, we have seen some moderation since as the USD continues to flounder. Comments from RBA gov Lowe was a little more non committal on the AUD exchange rate, saying it is hard to say whether the AUD is overvalued or not, and this gave the spot rate some support and saw a modest, but tentative move higher through 0.7650. Some modest outperformance in GBP, as EURGBP is pressed back down to 0.8500, and given the above flow, Cable through 1.2550. Resistance in the latter seen ahead of 1.2600, allies with real money and tech based demand in the cross rate below the above mentioned figure level. In commodities, oil rose 1.2 percent to $52.94 per barrel. The global oil market’s march to equilibrium won’t be deterred by the increasing volume of crude being poured into U.S. storage tanks, according to Goldman Sachs. Copper three-month forwards fell 0.4 percent. The metal jumped 1.7 percent Wednesday after workers at the biggest mine in Chile vowed to strike. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast what would be the first deficit of the metal since 2011. Gold was flat at $1,241.93 an ounce, after touching the highest level since November on Wednesday. Oil prices are back to the fore as the significant rise in inventory (Cushing) caused a moderate sell off in WTI in relative terms, with the latest rise potentially signalling the longer term impacts of the OPEC agreements on supply made last year. WTI tested towards USD53.00 earlier today, but this just puts us back into the middle of the near term range. Natural Gas higher though due to US seasonal factors. Elsewhere, base and precious metals all modestly higher in response to USD caution. Looking at the day ahead, the calendar continues to remain fairly sparse for the most part today. The highlight this morning in Europe is likely to be the December trade data in Germany, where exports declined by -3.3%, well below the -1.10% expected (down from +3.9%) while over in the US the only data of note is the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading and the December wholesale trade and inventories report. Away from the data we are due to hear from the Fed’s Bullard and the Fed’s Evans. BoE Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak in London this evening at 6.30pm GMT. Finally on the earnings front we’ve got 27 S&P 500 companies due to report including Coca-Cola and CVS Health Corp. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 249,000, prior 246,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.06m, prior 2.06m 9:05am: Fed’s Bullard Speaks in St. Louis9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 46.6 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 0.4%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0% 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change 12pm: Monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates 1:10pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Policy in Chicago DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday saw a big rally in global bonds especially in the European periphery and France. Indeed 10y OAT’s finished the day 10.8bps lower in yield at 0.998%, the strongest day in fact since September 2015. In the periphery we also saw yields in Italy (-11.7bps), Spain (-7.2bps) and Portugal (-12.8bps) finish sharply lower while 10y Bunds (-5.5bps) – while underperforming – closed below 0.300% for the first time since January 10th. That meant the OAT-Bund spread eased back to 71bps from the recent 77bps wide mark. The rally really kicked into the gear straight from the open and steadily continued over much of the session. While much of the suggestion was that it was just an unwinding of some of the recent selloff, boosted also by strong auction demand in Germany and Portugal, there was a story also doing the rounds on Bloomberg concerning an internal ECB meeting in which Draghi supposedly said that he sees the ECB maintaining an accommodative policy until the end of his mandate in 2019. Given the imminent taper is a big part of the recent sovereign underperformance then one can see why markets responded to this. The positive momentum for bonds kicked on into the US session too and we saw 10y Treasury yields end the day 5.7bps lower at 2.336%, despite a temporary move higher following a soft 10y auction which seemed to be overshadowed by comments from Larry Fink after he said that there’s a rising chance of 10y yields going back below 2% given that fiscal stimulus policies won’t be in place until 2018. Yesterday’s closing level means Treasury yields are nearly 13bps lower this week alone and are only just above the YTD low made intraday on the 17th January of 2.306%. Yields have also fallen for 4 days in a  row now which is the longest run since June last year. So while it was a busy day for bonds, it was once again another indifferent session for risk assets. In Europe the Stoxx 600 edged up +0.33%, meaning it is pretty much back to flat for the week, while European Banks (-0.77%) lagged with the move lower for bond yields. Meanwhile at the closing bell last night the S&P 500 finished +0.07%. Incredibly that’s yet another day where the index has moved up or down by less than 0.10%, taking the tally to 7 in the last 10 sessions. That isn’t the only remarkable stat however. Yesterday’s move means the index has now gone 82 sessions without falling more than 1% which is the longest streak since 2006. In addition, the index has now also gone 37 days in a row with an intraday range of less than 1% - the longest run that we can find. Needless to say then that equity vol stayed low again yesterday with the VIX at 11.45 (versus the 10.58 low at the end of January) and the VSTOXX at 16.83 (versus the recent low of 14.60). It was a similar story in credit too with the iTraxx Main just 0.5bps tighter despite the big moves in bonds, while CDX IG finished just over 1bp wider. This morning in Asia we’ve seen a continuation of the bond rally for the most part. The most notable have been the moves for 10y yields in Australia (-5.6bps) and New Zealand (-9.5bps) with the latter outperforming after the RBNZ left rates on hold and the associated statement said that monetary policy would remain accommodative for some time. JGB’s are little changed but we’ve also seen yields fall in Hong Kong (-3.7bps), South Korea (-2.5pbs) and Singapore (-2.5bps). The Greenback is little changed as we go to print, as is Gold and Oil, while it’s been another fairly uninspiring session for risk assets. The Nikkei (-0.28%) and ASX (-0.11%) are a shade lower while the Hang Seng (+0.39%), Shanghai Comp (+0.37%) and Kospi (+0.20%) are up. Truth be told there really wasn’t a great deal more that was interesting yesterday. Last night we got confirmation that MP’s in the House of Commons had voted overwhelmingly in favour of a draft law to trigger Article 50 by 494 votes to 122. The legislation now moves on to the House of Lords for further scrutiny with the FT highlighting that the peers are under big pressure to approve without any amendments. Staying in Europe, yesterday we also got another political poll out of France, which largely confirmed some of the recent trends. The Elabe poll for BFMTV showed Le Pen coming out on top in the first round at 25.5-26% versus 22-23.5% for Macron, 17-18% for Fillon and 15-15.5% for Hamon. A second round vote between Le Pen and Macron had Macron coming out on top at 63% to 37% and a vote between Le Pen and Fillon showed the latter coming out on top at 56% to 44%. Looking at the day ahead, the calendar continues to remain fairly sparse for the most part today. The highlight this morning in Europe is likely to be the December trade data in Germany while over in the US this afternoon the only data of note is the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading and the December wholesale trade and inventories report. Away from the data we are due to hear from the Fed’s Bullard at 2.05pm GMT and then the Fed’s Evans at 6.10pm GMT. BoE Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak in London this evening at 6.30pm GMT. Finally on the earnings front we’ve got 27 S&P 500 companies due to report including Coca-Cola and CVS Health Corp.

09 февраля, 10:01

Без пузыря: мировой рынок недвижимости в застое

Глобальный риск — это огромный пузырь в Китае, который может лопнуть в любой момент и повлиять на мировой рынок недвижимости

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07 февраля, 20:21

10 Years Ago Today, The Financial Crisis Started With An Announcement By HSBC

10 years ago today, HSBC Holdings, the world's third-largest bank at the time (and one of the most aggressive players in the U.S. market for low-quality mortgages), sent a chill through the financial world with news that its bad-debt charges will be 20% higher than forecast... and became the first canary in the coalmine of what would become the worst financial crisis of a generation. "This is a material negative surprise for HSBC," said John-Paul Crutchley, an analyst at Merrill Lynch.   Foreclosures jumped 35% in December versus a year earlier, according to recent data from RealtyTrac. For the fifth straight month, more than 100,000 properties entered foreclosure because the owner couldn't keep up with their loan payments, the firm noted.   For its part, HSBC said its overall charge will be about $10.56 billion, about 20% higher than the average analyst forecast of $8.8 billion.   In explaining the outcome, the bank said its own risk projections had failed to predict how many borrowers would fall behind on mortgages as interest rates climbed and saddled them with higher monthly payments.   HSBC's warning comes just weeks ahead of its planned report of annual results and follows a December trading update that was already bearish on U.S. mortgage debt.   The problem is with HSBC's portfolio of sub-prime mortgages, which it snapped up in 2005 and 2006, before the U.S. housing slowdown began to bite. Sub-prime loans are sold to home buyers who fail to meet the strictest lending standards. And that set the ball rolling... The Global Economic & Financial Crisis: A Timeline Wednesday, February 7, 2007: HSBC announces losses linked to US subprime mortgages. Tuesday, April 3, 2007: New Century Financial, which specializes in sub-prime mortgages, files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and cuts half of its workforce. Thursday, May 17, 2007: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says growing number of mortgage defaults will not seriously harm the US economy. Wednesday, June 2007: Two Bear Stearns-run hedge funds with large holdings of subprime mortgages run into large losses and are forced to dump assets. The trouble spreads to major Wall Street firms such as Merrill Lynch, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs which had loaned the firms money. July 2007: Investment bank Bear Stearns tells investors they will get little, if any, of the money invested in two of its hedge funds after rival banks refuse to help it bail them out. Thursday, August 9, 2007: Investment bank BNP Paribas tells investors they will not be able to take money out of two of its funds because it cannot value the assets in them, owing to a "complete evaporation of liquidity" in the market. The European Central Bank pumps €95bn (£63bn) into the banking market to try to improve liquidity. It adds a further €108.7bn over the next few days. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan also begin to intervene. Friday, August 17, 2007: The Fed cuts the rate at which it lends to banks by half of a percentage point to 5.75%, warning the credit crunch could be a risk to economic growth... ... Here is Ben Bernanke's responses to these events... Feb. 15, 2007 - "Despite the ongoing adjustments in the housing sector, overall economic prospects for households remain good. Household finances appear generally solid, and delinquency rates on most types of consumer loans and residential mortgages remain low." March 28, 2007 - "At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained. In particular, mortgages to prime borrowers and fixed-rate mortgages to all classes of borrowers continue to perform well, with low rates of delinquency." May 17, 2007 - "All that said, given the fundamental factors in place that should support the demand for housing, we believe the effect of the troubles in the subprime sector on the broader housing market will likely be limited, and we do not expect significant spillovers from the subprime market to the rest of the economy or to the financial system.  The vast majority of mortgages, including even subprime mortgages, continue to perform well.  Past gains in house prices have left most homeowners with significant amounts of home equity, and growth in jobs and incomes should help keep the financial obligations of most households manageable." Oct. 31, 2007 - "It is not the responsibility of the Federal Reserve – nor would it be appropriate – to protect lenders and investors from the consequences of their financial decisions." Jan. 10, 2008 - "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession." Jan. 18, 2008 - (Two months before Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsed and were nationalized) "They will make it through the storm." Jan. 18, 2008 - "[The U.S. economy] has a strong labor force, excellent productivity and technology, and a deep and liquid financial market that is in the process of repairing itself." As Adriano Lucatelli details for finews, on February 7 of 2007, British banking giant HSBC surprised markets with a profit warning connected to write-downs on US subprime mortgages. No-one had any inkling that this was the opening act of what would be the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression began in 1929. The 2007 crisis even eclipsed Black Monday, the stock market crash of 1987, and the collapse of the dotcom bubble of 2000. After HSBC’s loss report, the disaster gathered pace. On August 9 of the same year, the French bank BNP Paribas announced that it was ceasing activity in three investment funds that specialized in U.S. mortgage debt, and were de facto insolvent. The following month saw a  bank run on the British mortgage lender Northern Rock. Customers queued outside branches for hours, hoping to withdraw their savings. Northern Rock could no longer survive alone and was taken into public ownership by the British state on February 22 of the following year. In March of 2008, the once-proud investment bank Bear Stearns allowed itself to be taken over by J.P. Morgan Chase for $236 million, to avoid bankruptcy. The crisis reached its peak on September 15 with a fury of events. Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, and Merrill Lynch was taken over by Bank of America for $50 billion. The Dow Jones Index suffered its worst single-day loss since the terror attacks of September 11, tumbling 777.68 points to close just over 10,000 points. Stock Market Movement During the Crisis   (Source: Bloomberg) How do things look ten years later? Judging by the situation in the U.S., everything seems to be in order. The normalization of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve late in 2015 marked the official end of the financial crisis. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones have long overtaken pre-crisis values. Since Donald Trump’s election, they’ve even reached new all-time highs. All’s well that ends well? Not quite. In the eurozone, the outlook is still predominantly gloomy. To save the crumbling banks, governments have had to inject billions. This created a sovereign debt crisis that threatens the survival of Europe's single currency. In Europe, the crisis has already claimed its first victim: Greece. The country lies in ruins, and it is not clear how Greece will ever pay back its debts. Without debt relief, Greece would hardly be able to stand on its own feet again, and Grexit would be inevitable. Trouble is also brewing in Italy. After ten years of stagnation and three of recession, rates of prosperity, employment and savings are on the floor. As a result, populist powers have gained political weight, and the «five-star movement» has even promised a referendum on eurozone membership. It is still too soon to say that Europe has overcome the financial crisis. Instead, Europe's unity project remains under threat. The eurozone countries must therefore face up to the removal of the structural weaknesses that were uncovered by the crisis, and introduce sustainable reforms. If they do not manage to do that, there will be extremely stormy years ahead. If no effective action is taken, the collapse of the eurozone, if not the entire European Union, could well be the delayed result of the 2007 global financial crisis.

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07 февраля, 07:13

Mnuchin Could Surprise Wall Street And Main Street

The reform of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has been stuck in gear for some time and with President Trump setting his sights on pushing through reform, potential Treasury Secretary Mnuchin could be the Washington outsider and industry insider to get the job done.

03 февраля, 15:21

Trump To Sign Executive Orders Undoing Dodd-Frank, "Fiduciary Rule"

On Friday, President Donald Trump plans to sign an executive action to scale back the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial-overhaul law, in a sweeping plan to dismantle much of the regulatory system put in place after the financial crisis. The order won't have any immediate impact. But it directs the Treasury secretary to consult with members of different regulatory agencies and the Financial Stability Oversight Council and report back on potential changes.  "There are quite a few things that we could do on Dodd-Frank ... that we think will have fairly immediate and dramatic impact," the official said, including personnel changes at regulatory agencies and additional executive orders. That likely includes a review of the CFPB, which vastly expanded regulators' ability to police consumer products — from mortgages to credit cards to student loans. Trump administration officials, like other critics, argue Dodd-Frank did not achieve what it set out to do and portray it as an example of massive government over-reach. Trump will also sign a presidential memorandum Friday that instructs the Labor Department to delay implementing the so-called "fiduciary rule" - an Obama-era rule that requires financial professionals who charge commissions to put their clients' best interests first when giving advice on retirement investments. The "fiduciary rule" was aimed at blocking financial advisers from steering clients toward investments with higher commissions and fees that can eat away at retirement savings. The retirement advice rule was issued by the Obama administration and was set to take effect in April. It has been staunchly opposed by the financial services industry, who argue the rule limits retirees' investment choices by forcing asset managers to steer them to the lowest-risk options. Opponents of the rule argued that the rule would result in high costs that will ultimately make small accounts unprofitable. While some lawsuits were filed against the rule, companies like Bank of America Corp's Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley had announced plans to cooperate with the rule. The Labor Department had estimated that it could cost firms as much as $31 billion over the next decade to comply. “Americans are going to have better choices and Americans are going to have better products because we’re not going to burden the banks with literally hundreds of billions of dollars of regulatory costs every year,” White House National Economic Council Director, and former Goldman president, Gary Cohn said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “The banks are going to be able to price product more efficiently and more effectively to consumers.” A senior White House official outlined the measures in a background briefing with reporters Thursday. "We think that they have exceeded their authority with this rule and we think this is something that is completely overreaching," the official told reporters at a briefing on Thursday. Trump pledged during the campaign to repeal and replace the law, which also created the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. "Dodd-Frank is a disaster," Trump said earlier this week during a meeting with small business owners. "We're going to be doing a big number on Dodd-Frank." Cohn said the actions are intended to pave the way for additional orders that would affect the postcrisis Financial Stability Oversight Council, the mechanism for winding down a giant faltering financial company, and the way the government supervises big financial firms that aren’t traditional banks, often referred to as systemically important financial institutions. More from the WSJ: Trump blamed the political establishment and Wall Street banks for leaving behind many Americans and vowed to break up both. Those promises have already been called into question as he has filled his administration with members of Congress and Wall Street executives, including Mr. Cohn, who retired as president of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to join the Trump administration.   Adding to the potentially difficult optics for Mr. Trump, he will sign the actions on the same day he meets with a group of business executives, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive James Dimon and BlackRock Inc. CEO Laurence Fink. Asked about the potential political pushback because of his Wall Street past, Mr. Cohn said the administration’s goal of deregulating financial markets “has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs.”   “It has nothing to do with J.P. Morgan,” he said. “It has nothing to do with Citigroup. It has nothing to do with Bank of America. It has to do with being a player in a global market where we should, could and will have a dominant position as long as we don’t regulate ourselves out of that.” The changes Cohn described are sure to face a fight from consumer groups and Democrats, who say postcrisis regulations are protecting average borrowers and investors from abusive practices, while making the financial system more resilient and bailouts less likely. This path also may create political problems for Mr. Trump, whose campaign was successful in swaths of the Midwest where homeowners were hit hardest by the housing crash sparked by the financial crisis. Meanwhile, asked about the potential political pushback because of his Wall Street past, in his WSJ interview Cohn said the administration’s goal of deregulating financial markets “has nothing to do with Goldman Sachs.” “It has nothing to do with J.P. Morgan,” he said. “It has nothing to do with Citigroup. It has nothing to do with Bank of America. It has to do with being a player in a global market where we should, could and will have a dominant position as long as we don’t regulate ourselves out of that.” Cohn said existing regulations put in place by Dodd-Frank are so sweeping that it is too hard for banks to lend, and consumers’ choice of financial products is too limited. Democrats and consumer groups have pushed for tighter controls on banks and other lenders, particularly after the subprime mortgage crisis that helped fuel the global financial crisis. But Cohn said that many of the postcrisis rules haven’t solved the problems they were supposed to be addressing. He said, for example, that there still isn’t a solid process to safely wind down the collapse of a giant faltering financial company or to ensure that those firms have access to short-term liquidity. “I’m not sitting here saying we want to go back to the good old days,” Cohn said. “We have the best, most highly capitalized banks in the world, and we should use that to our competitive advantage,” he added. “But on the flip side, we also have the most highly regulated, overburdened banks in the world.” Cohn also laid out a road map for how the Trump administration plans to target new financial rules. He said the Treasury Department would lead an effort to overhaul mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were put into government conservatorship after the crisis. He also said that the White House wouldn’t need a change in the law to redirect the mission of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, created by the 2010 law and which governs things like mortgage and credit-card rules. (Please see related article on B10.) He suggested the White House could influence the mission of the bureau, set up as an independent agency, by putting a new person at its helm to replace Richard Cordray, the agency’s director. Asked about potential changes at the agency, he said, “Personnel is policy.” * * * Trump said repeatedly during the presidential campaign that the Dodd-Frank overhaul law was preventing banks from lending, which he said made it harder for consumers to access credit and get the economy to grow. Financial analysts have had mixed views on this assessment. Some believe that low demand from consumers has hurt the ability of banks to lend, and low interest rates have hurt the returns banks make on these loans. But smaller banks have said they are dealing with a crush of new regulations spurred by Dodd-Frank, something regulators have struggled to address. Cohn didn’t specify how all of these regulations should be rewritten, but he said that financial markets have made their own corrections and that the environment that fueled the financial crisis no longer existed. He said, for example, that even if mortgage restrictions are rolled back, it doesn’t mean that there would be another boom in the subprime lending market. That is because, he said, those loans can’t be securitized and sold like they were before the financial crisis because the market for those products isn’t the same. “We don’t want to do it an unregulated way,” he said. “We want to do it in a smart, regulated way.” Translation: we want our bubble, we want to be able to securitize, package and sell it, we want to offload risky exposure to momentum-chasing retail investors and, potentially, widows and orphans.

03 февраля, 14:26

Trump plots overhaul of financial market rules

It marks the first time the new administration has weighed in substantively in the debate over how to regulate the world’s largest financial markets.

02 февраля, 14:36

Dollar Slide Accelerates After Fed Fails To Boost Confidence, Pressures US Futures

European shares and S&P futures fell amid mixed earnings from corporate heavyweights, while Asian stocks were fractionally higher. The dollar slump continued against all its major peers after the Federal Reserve gave dollar bulls little to be optimistic about.  The U.S. currency dropped toward the lowest close since November after the Fed reiterated its intention on Wednesday to lift rates only gradually. Dollar bulls had hoped that Yellen would provide a stronger signal about the pace of interest-rate increases this year after comments by the new Trump administration overshadowed data showing economic growth is picking up steam, prompting some skeptics to ask "what does the Fed know that we don't." With all the political uncertainties about, the big central banks appear to be lying low – or at least trying not to add to the volatility. It sent the dollar to its lowest level since mid-November against a six-strong group of other top world currencies, to add to January's worst start to a year in three decades. As DB's Jim Reid put it, "the message from the Fed overnight was a fairly steady one which acknowledged improvements in the outlook but didn't really further the debate on when the next rate rise will occur. There was a mention of improving “measures of consumer and business sentiment” although interestingly there was a notable omission of the recent improvement in business fixed investment which they continue to say “remained soft”. We also got the usual “some further strengthening” in the labour market while on the inflation front the Fed noted that “inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the committee’s 2% longer-run objective”. There was nothing new to take from the language concerning the rates path or balance sheet policy – the latter having been a fairly topical discussion amongst Fed officials recently. One thing that is worth noting though is the change in the composition of the voting members this year. Both George and Mester have dropped off and both were previously seen as having a strong hawkish leaning and so implying a more dovish Fed overall." Others were more cheerful: "this is a confirmation of the strength of the U.S. economy and an affirmation rate increases will be gradual," said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc. in Manila. "It’s a silver lining for Asia and the rest of the world against the dark clouds brought by the lack of clarification in the policies and direction of" U.S. President Donald Trump. Investors will now be keeping one eye on Friday’s jobs report and another on the narrative from the White House for signs of pro-growth policies. “The dollar and other currencies are in a push-pull situation,” said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments Ltd. in Edinburgh. “On the one hand economic fundamentals imply the dollar should rise, but on the other hand there is political risk. If the political risk premium rises too much, then it’s contrary to what the fundamentals are actually saying.” Back in the currency market, sterling also pounced on the weakened dollar to hit a 12-week high as construction sector data showed builders, like manufacturers the day before, are seeing a sharp rise in their costs. It set the stage nicely for the Bank of England's first meeting and economic forecasts of the year. With Brexit looming it may take a leaf out of the Fed's book and choose to play a straight bat, although it may implicitly send a less dovish signal than normal as it’s likely to be forced to upgrade growth and inflation forecasts. In markets, European stocks dropped with S&P 500 futures. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.2 percent at 10:39 a.m. in London as investors assessed disappointing corporate outlooks with health-care shares falling the most. Deutsche Bank tumbled 5.4 percent after its quarterly trading revenue missed analysts’ estimates. Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc added 2.9 percent after saying it’s in advanced talks to acquire baby-food maker Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent, after the underlying gauge rose less than one point to close at 2,279.42 on Wednesday. That was also despite Asian shares ex-Japan hitting their highest since mid-October as Korea's markets climbed to their best level since July 2015. In commodities, oil began to edge higher again after news of a sharp rise in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles triggered a pause overnight. Brent crude futures nudged up 8 cents to $57.02 a barrel threatening its highest level of the year, while key industrial metals like copper and nickel, but also safe-haven gold, moved higher too. Earnings are coming thick and fast, with mixed results clouding the picture on the state of the global economy. While Facebook Inc.’s sales topped forecasts, Sony Corp. and Mazda Motor Corp. cut their profit outlooks. In Europe, Deutsche Bank AG and Royal Dutch Shell Plc missed estimates. "There was a clear impact from the negative news flow around Deutsche Bank in the fall, especially on the global markets unit,” said Daniel Regli, an analyst with MainFirst whose recommendation on the stock is under review. “It remains to be seen whether this effect will be reversed in 2017.” The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.2 percent at 10:39 a.m. in London as investors assessed disappointing corporate outlooks with health-care shares falling the most. Deutsche Bank tumbled 5.4 percent after its quarterly trading revenue missed analysts’ estimates. Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc added 2.9 percent after saying it’s in advanced talks to acquire baby-food maker Mead Johnson Nutrition Co. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent, after the underlying gauge rose less than one point to close at 2,279.42 on Wednesday. Rattled euro zone bond market drew some comfort from the Fed's apparent lack of urgency to push up rates. Yields, which move inverse to price, drifted down across the board with those on benchmark Bunds down to 0.48 percent. France's bonds went with the flow but the gap over German peers was near its widest level in three years on nerves about far-right Marine Le Pen polling strongly ahead of elections in April and May. The yield on Spanish 10-year bond added two basis points to 1.7 percent, the highest level in almost a year. German bunds gained, with the yield on the benchmark note due in a decade dropping two basis points to 0.45 percent. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was little changed at 2.46 percent, after adding two basis points on Wednesday. * * * Overnight bulletin summary Earnings dictate play in Europe this morning, with Deutsche Bank the notable underperformer after their report, with Daimler and Shell also among the large caps to have announced their results FX markets have continued to see USD softness, with participants looking ahead to BoE rate decision and QIR Looking ahead, as well as the BoE QIR, today also sees weekly US jobless data and possible comments from ECB's Draghi as well as earnings from Amazon and Visa Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2267 Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 363 FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 7104 DAX down 0.3% to 11623 German 10Yr yield down 1bp to 0.46% Italian 10Yr yield up 1bp to 2.33% Spanish 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.72% S&P GSCI Index up 0.2% to 402.7 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.1% to 142 Nikkei 225 down 1.2% to 18915 Hang Seng down 0.6% to 23185 S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5645 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.46% Dollar Index down 0.37% to 99.27 WTI Crude futures up 0.2% to $53.98 Brent Futures up 0.4% to $57.03 Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,218 Silver spot up 0.8% to $17.68 Top Global News Fed Waiting to See Economic Results From Flurry of Trump Actions: Economic impact of executive orders still hard to gauge Reckitt Targets Mead Johnson With Surprise $16.7 Billion Bid: $90-a-share offer represents 29% premium for shares Facebook Invests for Future After Posting Another Revenue Beat: Mobile ad revenue made up 84% of company’s total ad sales MetLife Pins Hopes on Trump as Kandarian Reshapes Insurer: Operating profit of $1.28 a share misses analysts’ estimates NXP’s Revenue Rises Ahead of Qualcomm’s $47 Billion Purchase: Fourth-quarter revenue rose 52 percent to $2.44 billion Deutsche Bank Misses Estimates as Client Jitters Hit Trading: CEO Cryan is cutting assets, jobs, bonuses to shore up capital AstraZeneca Sees 2017 Profit Drop, With Elusive Sales Growth: Revenue in 2016 fell as sales of Crestor blockbuster plunged Rio Said to Get Approaches on Last $1.5b of Coal Assets: Company weighs options including sale for Hail Creek, Kestrel Hexagon to Buy California’s MSC Software for $834 Million: Private equity including CVC, Veritas said to have been outbid BC Partners, Bain Said to Weigh Offers for Nature’s Bounty: Entire company could fetch a value of as much as $6 billion Asian markets were subdued amid a lack of drivers, despite the upbeat close on Wall St where the S&P 500 snapped a 4-day losing streak and tech outperformed following strong Apple results, while the FOMC meeting was also perceived as somewhat dovish. ASX 200 (-0.1%) traded indecisively, although gold and resource names stemmed losses in the index, while Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) suffered from a firmer JPY. The Taiwanese Taiex (-0.2%) was lower on return from its week-long closure but still the Apple supply chain mildly supported in reaction to the tech giant's encouraging Q1 results, while the Hang Seng (-0.6%) was dampened amid underperformance in property stocks and a lack of drivers with mainland Chinese participants still away before reopening tomorrow. 10yr JGBs were initially higher alongside weakness in riskier Japanese assets, although gains were later wiped out following a weak 10yr auction in which average and lowest accepted prices slumped from last month and the tail in price also widened. Top Asian News Singapore Sees Little Growth in Investment This Year: Investment in 2016 was lowest since at least 2007 China Oil Trader’s Mideast Spree Shakes Up World Crude Flows: Chinaoil buys Mideast crude as part of Platts pricing process Sony Cuts Outlook on Film Unit Writedown, Profit Decline: Struggling movie division weighs on full-year profit outlook European Indices trade mixed this morning (DAX -0.4%) as earnings dictate play, Deutsche Bank (-5%) after poor earnings although revenues did slightly improve. Shell also underperformed against analyst expectations, however shares are trading higher this morning by 1.7% as the market was buoyed by comments from the CEO who stated with higher oil prices the companies fate may turn. In terms of sectors, IT outperform after Facebook posted a stellar set of results. Core fixed income markets gapped lower at the open but have subsequently pared those losses now up over 40 ticks and above the 162 level. Heading in to the auction, Spanish paper was weighed on with the GE/SP 10Y spread widening around 3.2bps. Top European News Shell’s Falling Debt Burden Shows Worst of Oil Slump May Be Over: Investors look beyond earnings miss, shares rise Novo Nordisk Trims Outlook, Expects Lower Prices in U.S.: Environment is ‘increasingly volatile,’ new CEO says Delta Lloyd Boards Recommend NN’s $2.7 Billion Takeover Offer: Extraordinary general meeting to be held on March 29 Vodafone Falls as Indian Competition Crimps Profit Forecast: Full-year Ebitda will be at lower end of 3%-6% growth range Daimler Gives Cautious 2017 Profit Outlook Amid Spending Push: 4Q profit rose 3% as trucks slump hurt results UniCredit Sets Discount for $14 Billion Rights Offer at 38%: Bank selling shares at 8.09 euros each and offers 13 for 5 Swatch Profitability Falls to Lowest in 20 Years on Glut: CEO Hayek sees growth in 2017 after recent improvement Nokia Quarterly Earnings Beat Estimates as Decline Slows: CEO Rajeev Suri sees stabilization after sharp decline in 2016 In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost 0.5 percent as of 11:02 a.m. in London, extending its decline this year to 2.9 percent. The euro added 0.4 percent to $1.0810 and the pound reversed earlier gains. The follow through from last night's FOMC reaction continued in early London, with USD losses seen across the board after the statement highlighted low inflation and gave a slightly 'less hawkish' (rather than dovish), view of the rate profile ahead. The pendulum edges back to 2 rather than 3 hikes through 2017 as a result, and this has pushed EUR/USD back above 1.0800, while USD/JPY is back testing yesterday's lows ahead of 112.00. USD/CHF remains below 0.9900. The risk ahead if for the GBP as we wait for the BoE announcement and QIR. Many anticipate revisions (higher) to both growth and inflation, and a significant chunk of this may be priced in as Cable has tipped 1.2700 but faces heavy resistance through here. The Brexit White Paper brings another layer of risk into the equation, so caution at the highs looks to be in play as EUR/GBP also pulls away from 0.8500 — partially in the wake of the higher than expect EU PPI numbers — topical due to the (re)focusing on inflation levels. UK construction PMIs came in south of consensus, but discounted due to seasonal factors, while input prices also rose. In commodities, nickel led industrial metals higher, advancing 2.2 percent to $10,480 a metric ton after the Philippines announced mine closures and suspensions. Coppers prices are also buoyant, in anticipation of China's return, pushing better levels but struggling ahead of USD6000p/t.  Gold rose 1 percent to $1,222.42 an ounce, the fourth gain in five sessions. Silver also added 1 percent. Oil rose as the biggest expansion of U.S. stockpiles in three months countered output cuts by Russia, the largest non-OPEC member that’s joined the group in trimming supply. West Texas Intermediate climbed 0.7 percent to $54.26 a barrel. The weaker dollar has also played a role. Looking at the day ahead, we'll get the BoE meeting outcome at 12pm GMT where we’ll also get the release of the inflation report and also the post meeting press conference with BoE Governor Carney. In a quick preview, the BoE is at or close to the limits of its tolerance of above-target inflation. Recent strength in activity indicators could tip the MPC in favour of a tightening bias. A case can be made for waiting though. The Brexit forecast error may be about to resolve itself as evidence of the real income shock and business relocations begin to appear; the cost of a policy mistake is asymmetric; the role of easy financial conditions in buffering the economy from uncertainty should not be underestimated; and with the latest QE tranche wrapping up this month, the BOE has all the more reason to proceed slowly as the post-referendum monetary stimulus unwinds. Elsewhere in the US the only data of note is the Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labour cost readings, as well as the latest initial jobless claims print. Earnings wise we’ve also got 36 S&P 500 companies set to report including Amazon (after the close) and Merck (prior to the open). US Event Calendar 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Jan. (prior 42.4%) 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, 4Q P, est. 1.0% (prior 3.1%) 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Jan. 28, est. 250k (prior 259k) 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 21, est. 2.063m (prior 2.100m) 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change US Government docket: President Trump meets with Harley-Davidson executives at White House 10am: House Budget Cmte hears from CBO Director Keith Hall on the economic outlook 10am: House Homeland Security panel holds hearing on future of TSA 11am: Senate Budget Cmte votes on confirmation of Rep. Mick Mulvaney, R-S.C., to be OMB director DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The message from the Fed overnight was a fairly steady one which acknowledged improvements in the outlook but didn't really further the debate on when the next rate rise will occur. There was a mention of improving “measures of consumer and business sentiment” although interestingly there was a notable omission of the recent improvement in business fixed investment which they continue to say “remained soft”. We also got the usual “some further strengthening” in the labour market while on the inflation front the Fed noted that “inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the committee’s 2% longer-run objective”. There was nothing new to take from the language concerning the rates path or balance sheet policy – the latter having been a fairly topical discussion amongst Fed officials recently. One thing that is worth noting though is the change in the composition of the voting members this year. Both George and Mester have dropped off and both were previously seen as having a strong hawkish leaning and so implying a more dovish Fed overall. The lack of anything materially new coming out of the Fed last night meant that the Greenback, which had been staging a decent rebound, pared most of the pre- FOMC gains. The Dollar index had been trading as high as +0.53% in the minutes prior but actually wiped out all of that move in the 30 minutes or so following the meeting, before rebounding modestly into the close to finish +0.13%. There was a similar move for Treasuries with the 10y yield peaking at 2.516% intraday before then closing at 2.476%. Equity markets were a bit more subdued with the S&P 500 (+0.03%) generally passing between gains and losses, although it did end up snapping a four-day losing streak. That was largely as a result of a decent rally for tech names with Apple (+6.19%) leading the charge following those better than expected revenue and earnings numbers the evening before. The Nasdaq finished the day up +0.50%. Prior to that in Europe the Stoxx 600 had finished +0.86%. Meanwhile, in comparison to the last few days, yesterday was actually a fairly Trump newsflow free day aside from some headlines suggesting that Trump had “humiliated” Mexico President Nieto last week with more chatter about Trump supposedly forcing Mexico to pay for the wall with a tax on Mexican exports. That aside, the market was instead able to turn some of the focus over to what was a broadly decent day for data. In the US the most notable was the ADP employment change reading which came in at 246k in January (vs. 168k expected). That’s actually the biggest gain since June last year and should point to some upside risk in tomorrow’s payrolls. Meanwhile the manufacturing data was also positive. The final manufacturing PMI revision for January was set at a solid 55.0 (from 55.1 in the initial flash) while the ISM manufacturing reading rose 1.5pts to 56.0 (vs. 55.0) with both new orders (+0.1pts to 60.4) and employment (+3.3pts to 56.1) components higher. Elsewhere total vehicle sales in January were pretty much bang on the money at 17.5m annualised but construction spending weakened unexpectedly (-0.2% mom vs. +0.2% expected). The Atlanta Fed shifted their Q1 GDP forecast up fairly significantly post the ISM data to 3.4% from 2.3%. Over in Europe we also got the final January manufacturing numbers and a first look at the data for the periphery. The Euro area reading was nudged up marginally to 55.2 while a slightly softer reading for Italy (-0.2pts to 53.0) was offset by a similar gain for Spain (+0.3pts to 55.6). The UK printed at 55.9, a fall of -0.2pts. So with it being ISM and PMI manufacturing day we thought we'd update our numbers looking at the manufacturing print through history versus the YoY change in equity markets for the US, Germany, France, the UK and Italy. The numbers do a good job of showing why equity markets remain resilient in the face of rising political risk. On this crude measure equities are just 1% over priced in the US relative to activity, 3% cheap in both France and Germany, 5% too expensive in the U.K. (obviously this can't adjust for the big fx moves over the last 12 months), and 5% cheap for Italy (likely due to elevated political  risk). We try to not to be overly country specific when looking at this analysis and prefer to use it as a broader starting point as to whether equities are cheap or expensive. Very simplistically it appears like they are broadly in line with where they should be given the data but perhaps being a touch cheap in Europe at the moment. Elsewhere, the other notable news to report yesterday was the announcement that UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit law had been approved in the House of Commons by 498 votes to 114. That allows May to commence divorce talks with the EU although as the FT pointed out, dozens of pro-EU MP’s were said to refuse to back the bill suggesting a tense road ahead still. May is set to release a “substantial” white paper today detailing her negotiating objectives, so we will be keeping a close eye on that. This morning in Asia it has for the most part been a fairly weak session with bourses largely edging lower. The Nikkei (-0.72%), Hang Seng (-0.62%), Kospi (-0.47%) and ASX (-0.25%) are all in the red. The Dollar has continued its move lower post the FOMC with the Dollar index down -0.14% while commodities are mixed (Gold +0.46% and WTI Oil -0.58%). Moving on. As discussed at the top, overnight we have published our latest HY monthly where we highlight that despite rising government bond yields in Europe the measures of financial market volatility that we follow have generally fallen in the past month or so. We don't think such a low vol environment will last. A potential risk to our view is that it remains stubbornly low even in the face of some fairly aggressive moves in rates. We show how HY credit spreads have outpaced these moves lower in volatility with BB and B spreads now 35bps and 55bps tighter than the volatility implied levels. IG credit spreads have actually underperformed the same volatility implied measures and the spread ratio between HY and IG is at its lowest level in more than a decade with our analysis suggesting that relative returns in the coming months are likely to favour IG credit over HY. Although absolute returns for both asset classes might be negative in 2017. We also show that there are limited attractive yield opportunities within the higher rated part of the HY spectrum although yields do rise with duration. For lower rated HY (B, CCC) there is no evidence that extending duration provides more attractive yield opportunities. In fact short-dated single-Bs still provide upside vs. longer-dated BBs. So we would argue that investors are still presented with the dilemma of whether they prefer increased credit risk or increased duration risk. For now with a still benign default outlook and the potential for higher government bond yields it might continue to benefit shorterdated / lower rated credit. Before we look at today’s calendar, the saga in France’s presidential race continued yesterday with the spotlight still firmly placed on Francois Fillon. Reuters suggested that his party may consider substitute candidates in the wake of the revelations about his wife’s employment. In the mean time another poll was released yesterday (Elabe poll for Les Echos and Radio Classique). It showed that that Le Pen would lead the first round of voting at 27% versus 20% for Fillon and 23% for Macron. The second round voting shows that Macron would defeat Le Pen by 65% to 35% while Fillon versus Le Pen comes out at 59% to 41% in favour of Fillon (Pollster). French bonds underperformed again yesterday with the 10y yield edging up 4.9bps to 1.080% (versus 3.2bps for Bunds). France’s 10y bond yields are now 40bps above where they started the year and at the highest since September 2015. The spread between France and German 10y bonds (at 62bps) has also now reached a 3-year high. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’s fairly quiet data wise with just the Euro area PPI reading in December due. That clears the path for the BoE meeting outcome at 12pm GMT however where we’ll also get the release of the inflation report and also the post meeting press conference with BoE Governor Carney. In a quick preview, DB’s Mark Wall believes that the BoE is at or close to the limits of its tolerance of above-target inflation. Recent strength in activity indicators could tip the MPC in favour of a tightening bias. Mark also thinks that a case can be made for waiting though. The Brexit forecast error may be about to resolve itself as evidence of the real income shock and business relocations begin to appear; the cost of a policy mistake is asymmetric; the role of easy financial conditions in buffering the economy from uncertainty should not be underestimated; and with the latest QE tranche wrapping up this month, the BOE has all the more reason to proceed slowly as the post-referendum monetary stimulus unwinds. Elsewhere this afternoon in the US the only data of note is the Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labour cost readings, as well as the latest initial jobless claims print. Earnings wise we’ve also got 36 S&P 500 companies set to report including Amazon (after the close) and Merck (prior to the open). Royal Dutch Shell headlines the reporters in Europe.

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31 января, 18:30

США: индекс цен на жилье от S&P/Case-Shiller заметно вырос в ноябре

Цены на жилье сильно выросли в ноябре, при этом рост цен не показал никаких признаков замедления, даже после того, как ипотечные ставки начали расти в течение месяца. Индекс цен на жилье от S&P/Case-Shiller, охватывающий всю страну, вырос на 5,6% за 12 месяцев, закончившихся в ноябре, чуть выше пересмотренного роста на 5,5% по сравнению с прошлым годом, о котором сообщалось в октябре. Индекс цен на жилье для 10 городов вырос на 4,5% за год, по сравнению с 4,3% в прошлом месяце, а индекс для 20 городов вырос на 5,3% в годовом исчислении, по сравнению с ростом в октябре на 5,1%. Самые горячие рынки в стране по-прежнему сосредоточены на северо-западе, так как многие покупатели, вытесненные из Силиконовой долины, бежали во вторичные технологические концентраторы. Сиэтл возглавил рост с увеличением на 10,4%, Портленд сообщил о росте на 10,1% в годовом исчислении. Годовой прирост цен на жилье в Денвере составил 8,7%. Цены на жилье установили рекорд в сентябре и продолжили восхождение более чем на 5% по сравнению с прошлым годом с тех пор. "Можно утверждать, что рынок жилья оправился от цикла подъема-спада, который начался десяток лет назад," сказал Дэвид Блицер, управляющий директор S & P Dow Jones Indices. Объем продаж замедлился в последние месяцы, так как рост ставок по ипотечным кредитам столкнулся с ростом цен и нехваткой запасов. Продажи жилья на вторичном рынке упали на 2,8% в декабре по сравнению с месяцем ранее, Национальная ассоциация риелторов сообщила в прошлый вторник. В США продажи новостроек упали на 10,4% в декабре, Министерство торговли США заявило в четверг. Case-Shiller предлагает запаздывающий индикатор рынка жилья и ноябрьские числа отражают лишь начало резкого увеличения ипотечных ставок, которое началось во время президентских выборов в США в ноябре. Средние ставки по 30-летней фиксированной ипотеки выросли с примерно 3,5% в день выборов до около 4,32% в конце декабря, согласно данным ипотечной компании Freddie Mac. На прошлой неделе они составляли в среднем 4,19%, сообщила Freddie Mac в прошлый четверг. Более высокие ипотечные ставки аренды, как правило, демпфируют рост цен, так как они отягощают ежемесячные расходы на ипотеку. Этот факт, в сочетании с тем, что цены росли быстрее, чем доходы, мог бы создать проблемы для рынка в этом году. Индекс цен за месяц в США вырос на 0,2% в ноябре до сезонной корректировки, в то время как индекс цен для 10 городов и индекс для 20 городов также увеличился на 0,2% с октября по ноябрь. После сезонной корректировки, национальный индекс вырос на 0,8% за месяц, в то время как индекс цен для 10 городов и индекс для 20 городов вырос на 0,9% за месяц. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

14 января 2014, 08:56

Профицит бюджета США в декабре достиг рекорда

  Профицит бюджета США в декабре стал рекордным на фоне более высоких налогов на заработную плату, выплат со стороны Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, а также снижения уровня безработицы. Доходы превысили расходы в прошлом месяце на $53,2 млрд по сравнению с дефицитом на уровне $1,19 млрд в декабре 2012 г., свидетельствуют данные Минфина США. Экономисты, опрошенные Bloomberg, ожидали показатель на уровне $44 млрд. В 2013 г. безработица в стране сократилась на 1,2 процентного пункта до 6,7%, и это самое сильное падение в годовом выражении с 1983 г. Укрепление экономики и увеличение налоговых поступлений позволили сократить дефицит страны в прошлом финансовом году, закончившемся 30 сентября, более чем наполовину: до $680,3 млрд по сравнению с рекордным показателем в $1,42 трлн в 2009 г. "Мы продолжаем видеть улучшение экономических условий, которое в настоящее время отражено в сокращении бюджетного дефицита", - отметил экономист Wells Fargo Securities LLC Майкл Браун. Доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций снизилась до 2,83%, приблизившись к самому низкому уровню за месяц.  Доходы бюджета составили $283,2 млрд в прошлом месяце по сравнению с $269,5 млрд в декабре 2012 г. Расходы составил $230 млрд по сравнению с $270,7 млрд в прошлом году. В течение первых трех месяцев текущего финансового года дефицит составил $176,3 млрд, тогда как с октября по декабрь 2012 г. показатель составлял $293,3 млрд. Платежи в казну от Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac выросли за год примерно на $34 млрд.

10 мая 2013, 06:16

Про MBS и ипотечные кредиты

Мы совсем как то эту тему забросили, а зря. Все же на этот рынок много завязано. О каких суммах идет речь? Объем ипотечных кредитов (для жилой недвижимости, коммерческой, сельскохозяйственной) составляет 13.1 трлн долл на конец 2012 года. Из этих 13.1 трлн более 9.4 трлн записано на домохозяйства. Под эти кредиты выпускали тоннами всякого MBS’осного шлака, процесс полностью остановился в 2008 году. Сейчас совокупный объем MBS составляет 7.54 трлн, т.е. почти 58% всех ипотечных кредитов было секьюритизировано. На пике зверства было под 70%. Из 7.54 трлн около 80% эмитировано Government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) всякие там fannie mae и freddie mac, остальное остальное на частные структуры. Причем стоит обратить внимание на то, что в 2009 году более 4.4 трлн дефолтных бумаг (!) было изъято из частных структур в пользу государственных. Не будь этого, то все рухнуло. Программа TARP, кредитование ФРС и QE здесь не учитываются.Как это было...Чтобы оценить тенденции и масштабы, то лучше всего на графике.Как видно, процесс сокращения ипотечных кредитов продолжается. Низкие процентные ставки не помогают, кредиты не берут. А выкуп MBS не помогает тем более, т.к. сам процесс выкупа не имеет ни малейшего отношения к способностям и желаниям заемщиков получать кредит. Все, к чему имеет отношение ФРС - это стимуляция дальнейшей активности бангстеров по секьюритизации ипотечных кредитов, но если нет роста кредитов, то и чисто теоретически не может быть никакого роста активности в MBS. Поэтому проблема не в предложении кредитов, т.е не в банках, а в спросе (заемщиках). Нет спроса на кредиты, а банки бы рады опять шарманку запустить.Максимум, что может получиться из этой безумной затеи ФРС - так это провоцирование отрыва башни у бангстеров . С тем, чтобы условия получения займов были столь простыми, что получить займ мог бы любой, кто имеет в активах хотя бы один чупа чупс и половину недопитой банки коки. Возврат к тому, от чего пришли. Ничего этих людей не исправит.Кто держит весь этот мусор?Разумеется больше всех у ФРС – 1 трлн на конец 2012 и 1.15 трлн в настоящий момент. Ни одна структура единолично столько не держит. Это 15% рынка на 2012, к концу 2013 будет держать все 20% рынка. Тем самым это означает, что ценообразование на этом рынке под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Проще говоря, вторичного рынка больше не существует.Почти 4.5 трлн у финансовых структур (1.6 трлн коммерческие банки, 350 млрд ипотечные трасты, 347 млрд страховые фонды, 223 млрд пенсионные фонды, 170 млрд у брокеров и так далее).Частный сектор (домохозяйства и корпорации) сократили вложения почти в ноль. Причем домохозяйства по каким то загадочным причинам начали скупать MBS тогда, когда они наиболее активно падали в цене. На тот момент (2007-2008) они были самым крупным покупателем на рынке, нарастив всего за 1.5 года объем MBS на 500 млрд до 1.02 трлн, а потом в период с 2009 по 2010 все продали, когда ФРС запустил QE1Я раньше вам говорил, но повторю. Эта операция была похожа на хорошо спланированный инсайд. Группа лиц инсайдеров и аффилированных лиц с ФРС примерно в конце 2007-середине 2008 знала, что будет неизбежный выкуп MBS со стороны ФРС для поддержания рынка и примерно тогда готовился план по банкротству Лемана. Учитывая, что бумаги продавались с дисконтом, то предположительно через частные счета и некоммерческие организации был проведен выкуп на 300-400 млрд бумаг, которые по рыночной цене не стоили и половину от номинала. А потом продавали по номиналу ФРС, заработав сотни процентов чистой прибыли. Также поступали и дилеры, но в отличие от юридических лиц, физиков и НКО никто проверять не будет, т.к. об этом никто даже не догадывается. Т.е. более, чем вероятно, что на инсайде смогли отмыть через мошеннические схемы более 150 млрд чистой прибыли.Основные выводы1. Роста кредитования нет.2. Эмиссии MBS нет, т.к. нет роста кредитования.3. Рынок MBS под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Еще никогда в истории одна структура не держала такую долю рынка. 15% на 2012 и 20% на конец 2013. Вторичного рынка больше не существует в свободном формате. Цены регулируются ФРС.4. ФРС частная лавочка бангстеров и инсайдеров, которая действует прежде всего в интересах бангстеров и инсайдеров.5. По множеству косвенных и прямых признаков, инсайд о вероятном запуске QE1 был еще в начале 2008 года. Много подозрительных теневых операций по переброски средств в НКО. Откуда у НКО пол триллиона баксов, которые выкупали это говно в момент острой паники и краха. По моим оценка отмыли не менее 150 млрд чистой прибыли.6. Когда MBS в объеме не увеличиваются, а ФРС выкупает под 40 млрд в месяц + когда ФРС монетизирует гос.долг США, то избыточная ликвидность абсорбируется на рынке акций. Реципиентом являются дилеры – те, кто работает с ФРС и получает ликвидность от ФРС. НЕ нужно питать иллюзий, что рост фондового рынка чем то фундаментально обоснован. Очередная гнусная операция по перекачки ликвидности и поддержанию рентабельности фин.сектора в условиях, когда активность клиентов спала на рекордно низкий уровень. Не будет QE = не будет роста рынка.7. Единственной хорошей новостью является то, что этот бардак выходит на финишную прямую. Когда они сосредоточили в руках почти всю возможную власть и активы, то прорыв этого чуда-юда неизбежен. Учитывая то, насколько все ухудшилось за последний год, то ждать осталось не так и долго. Еще никогда контроль над активыми не был столь тотальным и всеобъемлющим.Более детальная таблица держателей MBS

25 сентября 2012, 13:50

ФРС может расширить список выкупаемых активов

Федеральная резервная система может увеличить объемы и расширить список активов, выкупаемых в рамках проведения третей программы количественного смягчения. Об этом заявил президент Федерального резервного банка Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс.Такие действия возможны в ответ на слабую реакцию экономики США на текущий формат стимулирования экономики."В отличие от наших прошлых программ по выкупу активов у этой нет заранее определенной даты завершения. Вместо этого она напрямую привязана к тому, что происходит с экономикой. Мы можем даже расширить наши покупки, с тем чтобы включить в них другие активы", - заявил Уильямс.Уильямс также отметил, что хоть и согласно мандату ФРС список бумаг, который может быть на балансе регулятора, ограничен, однако все еще есть возможность выкупа казначейских облигаций всех сроков обращения, долговых обязательств ипотечных агентств Freddie Mac и Fannie Mae.Помимо этого, Уильямс также ожидает продления сроков программы "Твист". "Я ожидаю, что мы продолжим эту программу в 2013 году, и я также думаю, что существуют сильные предпосылки для увеличения объемов или продолжения выкупа других активов в 2013 году, включая Treasuries с более длительными сроками обращения", - отметил Уильямс.По прогнозам представителя регулятора, ФРС удастся добиться снижения безработицы до 7,25% уже в 2014 г., поэтому программа выкупа активов будет завершена до конца 2014 г.