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Выбор редакции
08 декабря, 14:38

Global Equity Euphoria Prepares To Meet Mario Draghi

There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day. The exception was Shanghai, despite better-than-expected Chinese trade data, which suggested strengthening domestic and global demand, and thus a lower likelihood for future stimulus. November exports rose 0.1% (October -1.4%) year-on-year versus the consensus forecast of -5.0% and imports rose 6.7% (October -7.3%) versus consensus of a 1.3% fall. As the title suggests, all eyes are on Draghi and the ECB which in one hour will provide a glimpse into how the ECB's QE program will continue into 2017: “Today’s ECB meeting is expected to settle on an extension of asset purchases beyond the March 2017 end-date - perhaps for a further six months - but the decision to extend exceptional monetary support may not be unanimous,” Davy Research’s David McNamara writes in note. “Mario Draghi may signal the ECB’s intention to begin tapering when conditions allow, although explicit forward guidance is unlikely at this point. The rhetoric rather than the policy may therefore be the most interesting element of the announcement.” Needless to say, the market has been optimistic that anything Draghi says will be favorable for risk assets. A good summary of prevailing sentiment came from Ayako Sera, strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui, who told Bloomberg that globally, “we’re seeing a euphoric state continue, and investors will also be heading into the Christmas break soon, so we’re seeing some final moves to get into the market or close off positions.” Markets remain optimistic that Draghi will extend the ECB’s €80BN a month of bond buying at today’s ECB meeting, although technical difficulties associated with the bond purchases and new economic forecasts could complicate the ECB’s justification. Walking this tightrope will present a challenge for Draghi, with memories of last December’s debacle still in the mind (when market expectations of “more” were temporarily dashed, sending the Euro soaring). Indeed, perhaps getting a case of cold feet, bonds dipped in the 11th hour on concern Mario Draghi may fail to deliver after all on stimulus that’s already priced into the market. The euro gained for a second day. Italian bonds retreated after a rally sent 10-year yields to a three-week low ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting where it may announce it will prolong unprecedented quantitative easing. “The market is just in general a little bit nervous whether Draghi will actually get this extension of QE through and whether it will be the same amount as before,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “So we see a bit of anxiety ahead of the decision but it has been quite volatile. The liquidity right now is not great. A lot of people are sidelined, so I don’t think it takes big trades to move the market.” Perhaps driven higher by worries of a surprise tightening hint, the euro approached a one-month high against the dollar on a closing basis. A gauge of European stocks moved higher toward a three-month peak while S&P 500 Index futures fluctuated after closing at a record high.  European stocks opened firmer this morning, led by the DAX (+0.50%) and Spain’s IBEX (+0.5%). US equity futures are marginally higher (+0.07%) in early European trade. The dollar index (DXY) briefly dipped back beneath 100.0 level as the Yen continued to recover from its recent low of 114.72. The sagging dollar also helped to revive gold after its recent trip to the woodshed, which saw it fall from $1,305/oz to a low of $1160/oz. It was trading at $1,176/oz. in the European open.    Bond markets in Asia Pacific were generally stronger, led by Australia and South Korea, although the yield on 10-year JGBs was 1.4bp higher at 3.6bp.  European bond markets are opening up weaker, but only marginally with yields up 1-2bp. Following the British Parliament’s vote to back PM Theresa May’s decision to trigger Brexit by 31 March 2017, Gilts are bucking the trend. The yield on the 10-year Gilt is 5.8bp lower at 1.354%. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds climbed seven basis points to 1.95 percent at 10:45 a.m. in London. The euro advanced 0.3 percent to $1.0790. The Stoxx 600 increased 0.3 percent after trading little changed and S&P 500 futures added less than 0.1 percent. Oil traded near $50 a barrel in New York. Spain’s 10-year bond yield increased five basis points to 1.47 percent and Germany’s was three basis points higher at 0.38 percent. Yields on Treasuries due in a decade rose three basis points to 2.37 percent, after falling five basis points on Wednesday. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures flat at 2,232 Stoxx 600 up 0.2% to 348.3 FTSE 100 up 0.1% to 6907.8 DAX up 0.5% to 11,040 German 10Yr yield up 0.7bp to 0.345% Italian 10Yr yield up 3bp to 1.91% Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bp to 1.45% S&P GSCI Index down 1% to 383.4 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 137.1 Nikkei 225 up 1.5% to 18,765.5 Hang Seng up 0.3% to 22,861 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,215 S&P/ASX 200 up 1.2% to 5,543.6 US 10-yr yield up 1bp to 2.35% Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.0 WTI Crude futures up 0.1% to $49.82 Brent Futures flat to $53.07 Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,176.6 Silver spot flat at $17.12 Global Headlines Europe Stocks Advance as Global Stocks Rally Before ECB Decision            Russia Sells $11 Billion Stake in Rosneft to Glencore, Qatar                      Draghi’s Stimulus Message Set to Be Scanned for Ultimate QE Plan           Samsung Said to Plan All-Screen Design in Galaxy S8 Phones                    Volkswagen Engineers Change in the Eye of the Diesel Storm                     UniCredit Sells Pekao Stake for $2.6 Billion to Lift Capital                         Monte Paschi Asks ECB for More Time to Finish Capital Hike                       Sports Direct’s Ashley Waits on Corporate Plane as Profit Slumps              U.K.’s Capita to Sell Units, Cut 2,000 Jobs as Brexit Weighs                       Glencore Dealmaking King Returns With Wager on Oil and Putin                 Kremlin Gold Paves Way to Billionaire Fortune for Tito’s Valet Looking at Asian stocks, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8% to 137.09, its third successive rise. The KOSPI led the way (+1.97%), followed by the Philippines (+1.54%) and the Nikkei (+1.45%). The Shanghai Composite was the only faller, by a marginal 0.21%. In Japan, the TOPIX index closed at a 2016 high of 1512.7 with Financials and Utilities seeing the strongest gains. The resurgent Softbank gained a further 5.5% (highest level for two years and 13% up on the week) in the wake of Chairman Masayoshi Son’s meeting with Donald Trump. Chinese stocks were mixed despite the solid trade data with gains in Financials and Telecoms offset by losses in Industrials and Tech. The strength in Financials was also evident in Australia with ANZ 2.53% better. Rio Tinto was also a strong market, rising 3.12% on optimism regarding dividend prospects. Asia Top News China Exports Snap Seven-Month Losing Streak as Imports Surge                                Singapore Suffers Another Market Disruption as Futures Open Late                              India Outflow: Deutsche Bank Says You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet                                    Michael Jordan Scores Victory in Legal Battle for Chinese Name                                  China Wraps Up 26th Straight Car Sales Record With Month to Go                                  China’s Bouyant Appetite for Iron And Copper Bodes Well for 2017                              Macau Gaming Watchdog Says Revenue Growth May Revive in 2017                              Faster Frappuccinos in China as Starbucks Joins WeChat Payments                              In Modest India, This Startup Hawks Edible Body Paint, Lingerie                                  China Pays Record Yields on Dim Sum Bond Sale as Yuan Sinks                                   European stocks are trading in positive territory, albeit marginally, ahead of the ECB. As Bloomberg notes “Traders are pinning their hopes on Mario Draghi to deliver a so-called Santa rally that has eluded European stocks for the past two years.” The European Banks sector (SX7E) is 0.5% higher at 115.1 with Monte Paschi gaining 3.9%. The ECB’s Supervisory Board is expected to discuss extending the capital raising plan – from 31 December 2016 to 20 January 2017 - at today’s meeting. Ericcson’s shares were down slightly after management updated investors on its cost and efficiency programme. The programme is proceeding ahead of plan which is front-loading more of the costs into 2016. In the UK, Sports Direct, the scandal plagued sports retailer, saw its shares fall 7% after it reported a 57% fall in underlying pre-tax profits to £71.6m and a pause in its buyback programme. Europe Top News European Stocks in Longest Rally in 2 Months With ECB in Focus                                   UniCredit Sells Pekao Stake for $2.6 Billion to Lift Capital                                           Deutsche Bank Records Said to Show Silver Rigging at Other Banks                             Draghi’s Stimulus Message Set to Be Scanned for Ultimate QE Plan                              European Stock Traders Look to Draghi to Break Santa Curse                                       U.K. House Prices Rise as Supply Fails to Match Demand Growth                                  Deutsche Bank May Have Rigged Index in Paschi Deal, Audit Shows                             Fingerprint Shares Plunge After Company Cuts Sales Guidance                                     At Volkswagen, Engineering Change in the Eye of the Diesel Storm                              Glencore Dealmaking King Returns With Wager on Oil and Putin                                    In currencies, the DXY continued to slip back from its 24 November 2014 high of 101.93 and was trading at 100.11 as European markets opened. The pause in the surge in US Treasury yields helped the Yen (via carry trades) to claw back further ground to 113.60 after its recent sharp fall. The Euro was little changed at 1.076 as markets await Draghi’s comments following today’s ECB policy decision. CNY is essentially flat at 6.879, although we might have expected some modest strength after today’s data.  In commodities, the Dalian iron ore futures contract rose 1.0% to CNY634.5 after China announced that November 2016 imports jumped to the third highest on record (+12% year-on-year and 14% month-on-month). Oil prices are basically unchanged with WTI struggling to cling on to $50/bbl at $49.92/bbl. The platinum price, along with other precious metals, is clawing back some of its recent sharp losses and last traded at $949.0/oz (versus a recent low of $900/oz. on 1 December 2016. Glencore and Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund have agreed to buy a 19.5% stake in Russian oil producer, Rosneft, for $11.0bn. Looking at the day ahead, the main event is the ECB policy decision due at 1.45pm Frankfurt time (7.45am EST). Mr Draghi will be speaking 45 minutes afterwards. Despite some hints to the contrary, the consensus expectation is that the Eur80bn QE programme will be extended by a further 6 months to September 2017. However, some amendments to the programme are possible. For example, there could be a reduction in the Eur80bn per month volume, the deposit rate yield cut-off could be removed and the ECB could increase the maximum amount it can buy of any individual bond issue. Furthermore, the ECB will publish economic forecasts for 2019 for the first time today. A 2019 CPI forecast close to the 2.0% target might complicate the justification for extending the existing QE programme. On the US Events Calendar, we have Weekly Jobless Claims which are expected to come in at 257k versus last week’s 268k. Global Event Calendar 7:45am: ECB Refinancing Rate decision, est. 0% (prior 0%) 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 3, est. 257k (prior 268k); Continuing Claims, Nov. 26 (prior 2.048m) 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Dec. 4 (prior 44.9) 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 3Q (prior $1.075b) DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Given the size of the Santa Claus rally these last couple of days one wonders where markets would be today if the Italian referendum had actually seen a 'yes' vote. It seems the market was short financials and Italian risk going into the vote and when nothing much happened immediately after we've seen a very big squeeze. Italy’s FTSE MIB rose +2.10% yesterday (+6.34% over two days) and once again outperformed other benchmarks across Europe including the Stoxx 600 +0.91% (+1.88%) and the DAX +1.96% (+2.83%). It’s all about the banks however and while the Stoxx 600 banks index edged up an impressive +2.46% (+6.94%) yesterday the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks index rallied another +4.46% (+13.83%). The positive sentiment didn’t stop in Europe however as we saw both the Dow +1.55% (+1.73%) and S&P 500 +1.32% (+1.66%) rally to fresh all time highs. It’s a similar story in credit markets where yesterday we saw the iTraxx Senior Fins index tighten another 2bps (-9bps over two days) and the Sub Fins index rally -12bps (-19bps). Picking out the Italian constituents, within the Sub Fins index yesterday we saw Unicredit (-18bps), Generali (-16bps), Intesa (-15bps) and to a lesser extent Mediobanca (-3bps) storm tighter. In doing so it takes the two-day move for those names now to -36bps, -32bps, -30bps and -11bps respectively. Much like the performance across equity markets, US credit indices surged tighter too with CDX IG another 1.5bps (-3.9bps) tighter. Meanwhile 10y BTP yields were also down another 5.7bps yesterday at 1.883% and so meaning yields are 10bps lower in the last two days. I find it ironic that the market has been desperate for some kind of private sector recapitalisation for months and stressing for sometime about whether this could get done, especially if we had a 'no' vote at the weekend. Ironic because the market response in the last couple of days has indicated that a government/EU bailout is suddenly even better news. The latest twist appears to be the ESM aid story which came out early yesterday morning. While it was subsequently downplayed by the Italian Treasury, La Stampa newspaper reported that the Treasury was preparing to apply for a loan, suggested to be worth €15bn, from the ESM to support the country’s banking system. The positive aspect of the report was that it referred to multiple banks suggesting a possible systematic solution rather than specifically targeting one financial lender. Clearly it would also send a positive signal about European institutions’ willingness to support as well. Remember that a similar bailout from the ESM to Spain was made in 2012. So while it was downplayed, we’d note that there’s no smoke without fire so it’s worth following. Separately there was also some focus on an FT report that Italy had requested more time from the ECB’s supervisory arm (specifically to mid-January) to complete a private recapitalization. If that wasn’t enough then late in the evening we got the announcement that rating agency Moody’s had revised the outlook on Italy’s Baa2 rating to Negative from Stable post the rejection of the referendum. Plenty of moving parts then. Today’s focus however will switch over to the outcome of the ECB Governing Council meeting. As a reminder, our economists expect the ECB to announce a 6 month extension of the current €80bn QE programme from March 2017 to September 2017. They also expect this to be complemented by a move to improve the supply of eligible bonds, for example, the removal or softening of the yield floor. This would as a result facilitate a steeper yield curve. An extension seems to be the wider consensus view in the market too. A Bloomberg survey conducted November 29th to December 2nd found that 89% expect the ECB to take action today and 64% to extend QE at the current pace. 86% expect the QE parameters to be changed. Ahead of the meeting, in Asia this morning the positive sentiment from Europe and Wall Street yesterday has continued into this morning. The Nikkei (+0.82%), Hang Seng (+0.65%), Kospi (+1.24%) and ASX (+1.23%) are all up. The exception is China where bourses are unchanged despite export data surprising to the upside. Boosted by the weakening currency, exports in USD terms rose +0.1% yoy in November, bettering expectations (-5.3% expected) and up from -7.3% in October. Exports in CNY terms were also up more than expected (+5.9% yoy vs. -1.0% expected; -3.2% expected). A surge in imports however has seen the trade surplus in both USD and CNY terms shrink. Meanwhile in Japan late last night Q3 GDP was revised down at the final reading from +0.5% qoq to +0.3%. With regards to the rest of the politics based newsflow yesterday, as had been expected UK PM Theresa May won the backing of her fellow MP’s to start the process of the UK leaving the EU by the end of March next year but only after allowing for Parliament to scrutinize the details of her plan first. How much of her negotiation tactics she gives away though remains to be seen. Meanwhile in France the chief of the National Front and presidential election candidate, Marine Le Pen, confirmed in a televised interview that should would call for a referendum on France’s EU membership. Across the pond, President-elect Trump vowed that he would ‘bring down drug prices’ which weighed unsurprisingly on the healthcare sector yesterday. Indeed the Nasdaq Biotech (-2.91%) index was the notable underperformer. Moving on. The data continues to take a bit of a backseat but for completeness, in the US yesterday we learned that JOLTS job openings in the month of October declined to 5.53m (vs. 5.50m expected) from 5.63m in the month prior. Despite declining, openings continue to hover around elevated levels however while the details revealed that both the job openings rate and quits rates held steady at 3.7% and 2.1% respectively. Meanwhile, consumer credit rose by a seasonally adjusted $16.0bn in October versus the prior month, although that was a little less than expected (vs. $18.7bn expected). That put the annual growth rate at +5.2% in October which is down from +7.1% in the month prior. Over in the UK yesterday there were some notable misses in the October industrial and manufacturing production reports. Industrial production printed at -1.3% mom for the month (vs. +0.2% expected), with the fall largely driven by the energy sector and which has had the effect of lowering the YoY rate to -1.1% from +0.4%. Manufacturing production was also down (-0.9% mom vs. +0.2% expected) and as a result also dragged the YoY rate into negative territory at -0.4% from +0.1%. Sterling (-0.43%) edged down for a second consecutive day following that data. Meanwhile in Germany we learned that industrial production rose +0.3% mom in October which was also a miss versus the consensus (+0.8% expected). Our economists in Europe noted that the data corroborates their argument that that the massive rise in October orders strongly overstated underlying demand. Looking at the day ahead now, this morning in Europe the only data due out is from France where we’ll get the final revision to Q3 non-farm payrolls and also the Bank of France business sentiment reading. Thereafter all eyes turn to the aforementioned ECB meeting at 12.45pm GMT. It’s a quiet afternoon for data in the US with the only release due being the latest weekly initial jobless claims print.    

Выбор редакции
07 декабря, 23:57

The Trouble with DTI as an Underwriting Variable

Richard Green: The Trouble with DTI as an Underwriting Variable--and as an Overlay: Access to mortgage credit continues to be a problem. Laurie Goodman at the Urban Institute shows that, under normal circumstances (say those of the pre-2002 period), we...

07 декабря, 13:42

What's Ahead for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Under Mnuchin?

Shares of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) jumped over 40% last Wednesday triggered by the comments of Steven Mnuchin, Donald Trump's nominee for Treasury Secretary, favoring the privatization of these two companies

06 декабря, 18:10

Making Mortgages More Manageable - The Flexible Payment Mortgage

The standard mortgage in the US has two major weaknesses. Because of the rigid payment obligation, it is very difficult to manage the repayment process efficiently. And because the loan balance that the borrower pledges to repay is not affected by any changes that occur in the economy, the borrower is forced to assume a risk that her equity in the property will decline. The first problem is discussed below, the second one is considered next week. One of the things I have learned from many years of answering questions from consumers is that often they try to manage their mortgage in one way or another, often without success. The existing instrument was not designed to be managed. An instrument that could be effectively managed would result in more rapid pay-down of loan balances and fewer defaults. The Problems The Borrower's Payment Obligation Is Rigid: Perhaps the feature that causes the most problems is the absolute rigidity of the payment obligation. The current mortgage does not allow a borrower to skip any part of a payment under any circumstances. A borrower who skips a payment but pays regularly thereafter stays delinquent (and accumulates late fees) until the skipped payment is made good. Making Advance Payments to Avoid Future Delinquency is Costly: A way to avoid becoming delinquent when funds are scarce is to make advance payments when funds are available, but the standard mortgage discourages that. If the payment is used to reduce the balance, the borrower saves on interest but the future payment obligation is unchanged. The borrower who wants to use the cash for future payments must make these payments in advance, losing the interest saving. There is no way to do both. Required Payments Are Not Affected by Extra Payments on a Fixed-rate Mortgage: The borrower who wants to use a cash windfall to reduce his monthly payment can't do it on a fixed-rate mortgage except by inducing the lender to recast the loan contract -- at a price. On an adjustable-rate mortgage, the payment will decline automatically at the next rate adjustment date, but that could be years away. Limited Lender Feedback Discourages Extra Payments to Reduce the Balance: Typically the borrower who makes an extra payment has to wait for the next financial statement before seeing any evidence that her balance is lower. The Solution A Flexible Payment Mortgage Would Base the Borrower's Contractual Obligation on the Loan Balance. A schedule of required balances, declining month by month over the life of the loan, would be part of the contract. If the borrower made all the scheduled payments, his balances month by month would correspond exactly to the required balances. But if he paid more in some months, his actual balance would fall below the required balance, the difference constituting a "reserve account" which he could draw on by paying less later on. Some Examples: The loan is for $160,000 at 5.5% for 15 years, with a monthly payment of $1307.34. The borrower receives a bonus every Christmas from which he pays an extra $1,000 on his mortgage. With each extra payment, the gap between his actual balance and the required balance widens. If he does this 5 years running and then loses his job, he can skip his payment entirely in months 72, 73, 74, and 75, and in month 76 he can pay only $575. At that point, the actual balance and required balance are equal, so his "reserve" is exhausted. Or suppose the borrower inherits $10,000, which he decides to use as an extra payment in month 12. If he falls sick in month 37, he can skip 8 payments and most of a ninth before his reserve is exhausted. In many cases, a borrower wants only to reduce the payment, as opposed to skipping it entirely. If the borrower who prepaid $10,000 in month 12 needed to cut his payment from $1307.34 to $1,000 starting in year 4, he could do it for 39 months before exhausting his reserve. The beauty of the flexible mortgage from a borrower's perspective is that once he gets ahead of the game, his payment can be anything he wishes. The only limitation is that the actual balance must stay below the maximum balance each month. The Flexible Mortgage Requires Simulation Capacity For Maximum Effectiveness: For borrowers to use the flexible mortgage in the most effective way possible, they need access to their account and to a program that allows them to experiment with "what if" scenarios of the types illustrated above. This is not rocket science. The numbers cited above were drawn from an Excel spreadsheet that required only minor add-ons to an existing amortization spreadsheet. There have been some attempts to create a flexible mortgage, of which the most interesting was the CMG plan which I wrote about several years ago. For various reasons it never took off. Given the dominant role of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the FHA in our current system, one or all of those agencies probably has to be involved to make the flexible mortgage widely available. For more advice on selecting the best mortgage in the current environment or for more information on mortgages in general, visit my website The Mortgage Professor. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

06 декабря, 03:04

Carson’s nonexistent governing experience? Not a problem.

Ben Carson has no background in government or housing policy. And that’s just fine with Republicans senators responsible for vetting his nomination to lead the Housing and Urban Development Department.Based on early reviews from GOP senators, the neurosurgeon is on a glide path to confirmation next year after President-elect Donald Trump selected him to lead the department. Everyone from Trump’s former presidential foes to longtime veteran GOP senators said they have no qualms with Carson’s thin resume. “He’s one of the smartest people I’ve ever met,” said Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah), the most senior GOP senator. Asked about Carson’s lack of experience in the agency’s areas of expertise, Hatch replied: “No, but he has medical experience … he’ll pick it up so fast their heads will be spinning.”Like all of Trump’s nominations thus far, Republicans quickly fell in line behind Carson, who grew up poor in Detroit before making a career as a renowned surgeon who helped pioneer cutting edge medical techniques. "If you can get a brain surgeon that wants to run housing, that's a good idea," said Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) , who sits on the Banking Committee that will consider Carson’s nomination. "The American people had no concern electing President Trump without experience in government. Maybe what we'll get out of this is a new set of eyes looking at old processes."Indeed, in interviews on Monday evening, GOP senators said that his complete lack of government experience could actually be a selling point. They suggested that Carson is a quick study who will rapidly pick up how to run a cabinet agency with more than 8,000 employees that oversees public housing and housing finance and is currently run by Julian Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio. Despite Carson's lack of credentials, Republicans privately said that they see no reason to antagonize Trump right now when they need to work with him next year on policy issues and capitalize on the party’s momentum. And despite Carson’s protestations earlier this year that he wasn’t qualified to lead a cabinet-level department, Republicans said they expected Carson to serve in the Trump administration somewhere. “We figured he’d have a fairly high profile role,” said Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the No. 3 Senate Republican. “I’m sure he’ll be very interested in making sure those programs work efficiently and effectively. Particularly, I would think, the minority community.”Democrats took a far dimmer view. Incoming Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said he had “serious concerns” about Carson’s lack of preparedness for the job and that “someone who is as anti-government as him is a strange fit for housing secretary.”"You know, I thought he was a neurosurgeon,” said Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), a member of the Banking Committee. "It'd be like putting somebody like me as a secretary of defense. It's not where his expertise is."Still, Democrats are unable to block Carson after the 2013 rules change. All cabinet appointments can now be confirmed by a simple majority and Republicans would have to turn on Carson for his nomination to fail. Not all Republicans were willing to immediately bless Carson. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), a longtime Trump critic, said he hadn’t thought about Carson’s nomination and Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who was proposed sweeping changes to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said he would meet with Carson Thursday and avoid discussing his credentials until then.“I like Ben. I haven’t ever talked to him about any housing issues,” said Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). He said he had no qualms about Carson’s resume."He's a brain surgeon, neurosurgeon. He'll pick it all up,” added Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who chairs the Banking Committee. He'll meet with Carson on Tuesday. Trump’s outsider status and his own lack of governing experience has longtime senators taking an anti-government view of how Trump should staff his administration. While they praise Trump’s selection of former Gen. James Mattis as his defense secretary, given his sterling service record, they're taking the opposite tack with Carson: That he’s someone like Trump that could shake things up.“That may be a plus in some ways. Sometimes you like people to come in with a fresh outlook and new ideas and all of that,” said Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.). Lack of experience in the field, McCain added, “doesn’t matter.”

06 декабря, 01:15

The Deepening Of The Deep State

Submitted by Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com, One amusing angle on the news media broadside about Russia “hacking” the US election is the failure to mention - or even imagine! - that the US incessantly and continually runs propaganda psy-ops against every other country in the world. And I’m not even including the venerable, old, out-in-the-open propaganda organs like Voice of America and Radio Free Europe (reminder: the Iron Curtain came down a quarter century ago). Do you suppose that nobody at Langley, or the Pentagon, or the NSA’s sprawling 1.5 million square foot Utah Data Center is laboring night and day to sow confusion among other societies to push our various agendas? The main offensive started with The Washington Post’s publication on Nov 26 of “The List,” a story calling out dozens of blogs and web news-sites as purveyors of “fake news” fronting for Russian disinformation forces. The list included Zero Hedge, Naked Capitalism, and David Stockman’s blog. There were several whack-job sites mixed in the list for seasoning — The Daily Stormer (Nazis), Endtime.com (Evangelical apocalyptic), GalacticConnection (UFO shit). The rest range between tabloid-silly and genuine, valuable news commentary. What else would you expect in a society with an Internet AND a completely incoherent consensus about reality? Pretty obviously, the struggle between mainstream news and Web news climaxed over the election, with the mainstream overwhelmingly pimping for Hillary, and then having a nervous breakdown when she lost. Desperate to explain the loss, the two leading old-line newspapers, The New York Times and The Washington Post, ran with the Russia-Hacks-Election story — because only Satanic intervention could explain the fall of Ms. It’s-My-Turn / I’m-With-Her. Thus, the story went, Russia hacked the Democratic National Committee (DNC), gave the hacked emails to Wikileaks, and sabotaged not only Hillary herself but the livelihoods of every myrmidon in the American Deep State termite mound, an unforgivable act. Also interestingly, these newspapers and their handmaidens on TV, were far less concerned as to whether the leaked information was true or not — e.g. the Clinton Foundation donors’ influence-peddling around arms deals made in the State Department; the DNC’s campaign to undermine Bernie Sanders in the primaries; DNC temporary chair (and CNN employee) Donna Brazille conveying debate questions to HRC; the content of HRC’s quarter-million-dollar speeches to Wall Street banks. All of that turned out to be true, of course. Then, a few weeks after the election, the US House of Representatives passed H.R. 6393, the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017. Blogger Ronald Thomas West reports: Section 501 calls for the government to “counter active measures by Russia to exert covert influence … carried out in coordination with, or at the behest of, political leaders or the security services of the Russian Federation and the role of the Russian Federation has been hidden or not acknowledged publicly.” The measure has not been passed by the Senate or signed into law yet, and the holiday recess may prevent that. But it is easy to see how it would empower the Deep State to shut down whichever websites they happened to not like. My reference to the Deep State might even imply to some readers that I’m infected by the paranoia virus. But I’m simply talking about the massive “security” and surveillance matrix that has unquestionably expanded since the 9/11 airplane attacks, creating a gigantic NSA superstructure above and beyond the Central Intelligence Agency, the Department of Defense’s DIA, and the hoary old FBI. A little paranoia about the growing fascist behavior of the US government is a useful corrective to trends that citizens ought to be concerned about - for instance, the militarization of police; the outrageous “civil forfeiture” scam that allows police to steal citizens cash and property without any due process of law; the preferential application of law as seen in the handling of the Clinton Foundation activities and the misconduct of banking executives; the attempt to impose a “cashless society” that would herd all citizens into a financial surveillance hub and eliminate their economic liberty. These matters are especially crucial as the nation stumbles into the next financial crisis and the Deep State becomes desperate to harvest every nickel it can to rescue itself plus the cast of “systemically important” (Too-Big-To-Fail) banks and related institutions like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are about to once again be left holding colossal bags of worthless non-performing mortgages, not to mention the pension funds and insurance companies that will also founder in the Great Unwind that is likely to commence as Trump hangs his golden logo over the White House portico.

05 декабря, 20:59

2017 Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  It looks like analysts are optimistic on New Home sales for 2017.First a review of the previous four years ...Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016. In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts.Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts.The table below shows several forecasts for 2017:From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2016 From Freddie Mac: Interest Rates Headed Higher. What that Means for HousingFrom NAHB: NAHB’s housing and economic forecastFrom Wells Fargo: Monthly Economic Outlook From NAR: U.S. Economic Outlook: November 2016Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2016 will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.175 million.Housing Forecasts for 2017New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1Bloomberg1,250Blue Chip1,260CoreLogic4.7%Fannie Mae6718831,3084.8%2Freddie Mac1,2604.7%2Goldman Sachs6488931,3333.7%HomeAdvisor56148931,2363.5%Merrill Lynch6258251,2253.2%MBA8601,268NAHB6478731,258NAR6238381,2214.2%3Wells Fargo1,180Zillow3.6%41Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise2FHFA Purchase-Only Index3NAR Median Prices4Zillow Home Prices5Brad Hunter, chief economist, formerly of MetroStudy

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05 декабря, 15:24

Frontrunning: December 5

Italy Sinks Into Political Limbo as Defeat Sweeps Renzi Away (BBG) Investors Shrug Off Italy Referendum Result (WSJ); Markets Rise After Italy Turns Down Referendum (BBG) Italy’s ‘No’ Poses Trouble for Eurozone (WSJ) Oil tops $55 for first time in 16 months as OPEC deal fuels buying (Reuters) Merkel regrets Renzi resignation but will work with new Italy government (Reuters) Rescue of Italian bank Monte Paschi in danger after Renzi's defeat (Reuters) Euro rebounds after hitting 21-month low on Italian referendum defeat (Reuters) New Zealand Prime Minister John Key Resigns (WSJ) Trump has broad power to implement immigration policies: legal experts (Reuters) Trump Takes On China in Tweets on Currency, South China Sea (BBG) China says Trump clear about Taiwan, in touch with his team (Reuters) Don't Hold Your Breath on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (WSJ) Greenspan’s Irrational Exuberance Looks Entrenched, 20 Years On (BBG) Dakota Pipeline Project Halted as Permit for Last Leg Is Denied (WSJ) Trump advisors aim to privatize oil-rich Indian reservations  (Reuters) Credit Restrictions Cost Home Buyers ‘Deal of a Lifetime’ (WSJ) Fake US embassy in Ghana shut down after 10 years issuing visas (Guardian) Airbnb Ends Fight With New York City Over Fines (NYT) Never-Trump Senate Republicans Grapple With His Upset Victory (BBG) Brussels ‘close’ to free-trade deal with Japan (FT) SFO Probes Israeli Billionaire, Ex-ENRC Directors on Congo Deals (BBG) Rich Colleges’ Endowments Targeted by Trump Backer in U.S. House (BBG)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ - The Obama administration said Sunday that it had denied a permit needed to complete the last leg of an oil pipeline across the Midwest, prompting cheers from opponents but warnings that the move could be short-lived since President-elect Donald Trump supports the project. http://on.wsj.com/2h8S5kX - President-elect Donald Trump widens the circle of candidates for the nation's top diplomatic job, a list that now includes Exxon Mobil Corp CEO Rex Tillerson. http://on.wsj.com/2gpBEg5 - Authorities said Sunday the death toll has risen to 33 people from a fire that broke out Friday night during a party and electronic-music performance at a warehouse in this San Francisco suburb. http://on.wsj.com/2gpMS46 - Italian voters on Sunday rejected constitutional changes backed by the government, prompting Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to announce his resignation and handing populists a victory in the heartland of Europe. http://on.wsj.com/2g96cVV - Donald Trump criticized Rexnord Corp for its plans to move a factory from Indianapolis to Mexico, the second time the president-elect has pressed an attack against a U.S. company set to shift production abroad. http://on.wsj.com/2g0Nmgb - The euro fell after Italian voters rejected constitutional reform in a referendum Sunday, but contained losses are a sign that investors had already anticipated an unfavorable result for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. http://on.wsj.com/2gX3zVX - Former New York City mayor and billionaire philanthropist Michael Bloomberg has spent hundreds of millions of dollars of his fortune over the past decade fighting tobacco use in the developing world. Now, with cigarette use declining globally, he is deepening his campaign. http://on.wsj.com/2gr83ml - International Business Machines Corp CEO Ginni Rometty is one of 16 business leaders who will advise President-elect Donald Trump as members of the President's Strategic and Policy Forum, Trump said Friday. http://on.wsj.com/2fYunrs   FT British luxury fashion brand Burberry has rejected multiple takeover offers from U.S. handbag maker Coach Inc , the Financial Times reported on Sunday. Apple Inc is wading in to the debate over regulation of self-driving cars, declaring it is excited about the potential for automated transportation and calling on U.S. regulators not to restrict testing of such vehicles. France's Amundi is the likely winner in the bidding race to buy UniCredit's asset manager Pioneer, beating a consortium led by Italy's post office and Ameriprise Financial .   NYT - Airbnb has agreed to drop the lawsuit that it filed against New York City two months ago. The suit challenged a New York law that called for fines of as much as $7500 for illegally listing a property on a rental platform such as Airbnb. It agreed to drop the suit as long as New York City enforces the new law only against hosts and does not fine Airbnb. http://nyti.ms/2gEZGqn - Duet Group said Cheung Kong Infrastructure , an investment vehicle controlled by Li Ka-shing, has offered to acquire the Australian pipeline and electricity company for roughly $5.4 billion. The company said it was evaluating the offer. http://nyti.ms/2gF8YTd - The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe won a major victory on Sunday in its battle to block an oil pipeline being built near its reservation when the Department of the Army announced that it would not allow the pipeline to be drilled under a dammed section of the Missouri River.The Army said it would look for alternative routes for the Dakota Access pipeline. http://nyti.ms/2gF0tYz - Top Democratic lawmakers in California are moving to enact sweeping legislation to protect undocumented immigrants from deportation, the first sign of what they say will be an effort to resist immigration policies championed by President-elect Donald Trump. The measures would provide free legal help to undocumented immigrants during deportation proceedings, offer more assistance in criminal court, and further limit local law enforcement's cooperation with federal immigration agents. http://nyti.ms/2gEZhEt   Britain The Times * Prudential has begun a review of its 45 billion pounds ($57.05 billion) pension liabilities business in a move that could lead to the sale of the division and a potential restructuring of the entire company. http://bit.ly/2h8uqRF * Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc has struck a deal to pay about 40p a share to settle claims over its ill-fated rights issue in 2008 but has yet to reach settlement with thousands of retail investors. http://bit.ly/2gqcZIk The Guardian * Britain's information commissioner has reopened the file on construction industry blacklisting amid fears that the malpractice is still taking place. http://bit.ly/2gWjE0y * AstraZeneca has said it will move some back office jobs from the UK to Costa Rica, Poland and Malaysia in a drive to cut costs following a slide in profits. http://bit.ly/2fZVCNx The Telegraph * Formula One is locked in a dispute with authorities in India over 41.1 million pounds of unpaid Grand Prix fees dating back to 2012, according to company documents. http://bit.ly/2g0jPDw * The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), which regulates accountants, said Theresa May "should not waste this opportunity to modernise UK corporate governance". http://bit.ly/2gq5OA1 Sky News * Sky News has learnt that Greenergy, which claims to transport a quarter of the road fuel used in the UK, has been in negotiations with the infrastructure group Brookfield for several months. http://bit.ly/2h7y2Dl * Boris Johnson has outlined the four-point blueprint the government wants to achieve when it negotiates the UK's exit from the European Union (EU). http://bit.ly/2gWp8WG The Independent * Boris Johnson has risked igniting a row with Downing Street after revealing he believes international students should be exempt from the government's immigration figures. http://ind.pn/2fZ1EOm * Arron Banks, United Kingdom Independence Party's biggest donor and one of the first Britons to meet Donald Trump after his election victory, has denied claims he offered a "bribe" to a major UK political party in exchange for support for his Leave.EU Brexit campaign. http://ind.pn/2g96tYU

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04 декабря, 22:31

Don't Hold Your Breath on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Comments by Steven Mnuchin have excited holders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares, but the two companies’ fates are far from decided.

03 декабря, 17:00

Trump Pick to Sell Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac

We look at the good, bad & ugly of Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary and his possible pick for Secretary of State. Petraeus is still mentioned as 1 of 4 possibilities for Sec State, a man who said TPP was a National Security issue, Climate Change was a National Security issue, but National Security? Not an issue for him. Petraeus’ conviction for violating National Security would mean that he would have to notify his parole officer of his new job, get permission from the parole officer whenever he travels and have all his personal effects subject to warrantless searches without notice. Trump would have to issue a pardon for Petraeus to be able to do his job. Besides bad optics, it would send a message that powerful people like Hillary & her co-conspirator Petraeus (who shared 1,000 missing emails with her while commander of CENTCOM), have a different standard applied to them than the rest of us who would be jailed for life if we did the same things. Help us spread the word about the liberty movement, we're reaching millions help us reach millions more. Share the free live video feed link with your friends & family: http://www.infowars.com/show Follow Alex on TWITTER - https://twitter.com/RealAlexJones Like Alex on FACEBOOK - https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones Infowars on G+ - https://plus.google.com/+infowars/ :Web: http://www.infowars.com/ http://www.prisonplanet.com/ http://www.infowars.net/ :Subscribe and share your login with 20 friends: http://www.prisonplanet.tv http://www.InfowarsNews.com Visit http://www.InfowarsLife.com to get the products Alex Jones and his family trust, while supporting the growth of our expanding media operation. [http://bit.ly/2dhnhbS] Biome Defense™ [http://bit.ly/2bnEj91] Bio-True Selenium™ [http://bit.ly/1WYw8jp] Vitamin Mineral Fusion™ [http://bit.ly/1QYBNBv] Joint Formula™ [http://bit.ly/1nNuR3r] Anthroplex™ [http://bit.ly/1ljfWfJ] Living Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1Iobcj2] Deep Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1DsyQ6i] Knockout™ [http://bit.ly/1Kr1yfz] Brain Force™ [http://bit.ly/1R5gsqk] Liver Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1cOwQix] ProstaGuard™ [http://bit.ly/1mnchEz3] Child Ease™ [http://bit.ly/1xs9F6t] WinterSunD3™ [http://bit.ly/1L3gDSO] Ancient Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1EHbA6E] Secret-12™ [http://bit.ly/1txsOge] Oxy Powder™ [http://bit.ly/1s6cphV] Occu Power™ [http://bit.ly/1rGOLsG] DNA Force™ [http://bit.ly/1nIngBb] X2 Survival Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1kaXxKL] Super Female Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1mhAKCO] Lung Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1mGbikx] Silver-Bullet - Colloidal Silver™ [http://bit.ly/1xcoUfo] Super Male Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1z5BCP9] Survival Shield - Nascent Iodine™ [http://bit.ly/1o4sQtc] Patriot Blend 100% Organic Coffee™ [http://bit.ly/1iVL6HB] Immune Support 100% Organic Coffee™ All available at - http://www.infowarsshop.com/ INFOWARS HEALTH - START GETTING HEALTHY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE - http://www.infowarshealth.com/ Newsletter Sign up / Infowars Underground Insider : http://www.infowars.com/newsletter

02 декабря, 21:20

Settling the Fannie Freddie Fiasco: Steven Mnuchin Reverse the Obama Administration Scorched Earth Litigation Strategy If They Hope to Privatize Fannie and Freddie

Earlier this week, Steven Mnuchin, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Treasury, surprised the financial markets when he announced on Fox Business Network that the United States government should end the conservatorship for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two behemoth government-sponsored enterprises that the government under its control [...]

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02 декабря, 19:41

Trump's Treasury Pick Steven Mnuchin Is Best Hope Yet For Fannie And Freddie Hedge Fund Billionaires

Incoming Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he will get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of government control.

02 декабря, 00:16

4 big areas where Steven Mnuchin could change policy at Treasury

After President-elect Donald Trump nominated Steven Mnuchin as secretary of the Treasury Department, the outrage from Democrats came quickly. The superwealthy former banker has faced heavy criticism on the left for his bank’s actions during the financial crisis, including foreclosing on homeowners. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders put out a rare joint statement calling the nomination “hypocrisy at the worst,” saying that the nomination violated Trump’s pledge to drain the swamp and fearing that a Treasury under Mnuchin could be very favorable to Wall Street.So what could Mnuchin actually do for Wall Street? He’s on the record as supporting rolling back Dodd-Frank, the financial regulatory law passed in response to the financial crisis, and simplifying the tax code. Although Treasury is considered a top Cabinet post, its power to single-handedly affect American policy is more limited than those of, say, the attorney general. Treasury isn’t a bank regulator, so many financial regulations aren’t under its jurisdiction. And while the Internal Revenue Service is located within Treasury, tax laws are set by Congress. But Treasury is still a huge department, with more than 80,000 employees and agencies ranging from the IRS to the U.S. Mint to the Office of Foreign Assets Control, which implements and enforces economic and trade sanctions. And it plays an important advisory role: The White House often relies on Treasury for dispassionate analysis of domestic policy proposals from other departments. “Often the White House turns to the Treasury Department and says, ‘What do you think?’” said Aaron Klein, a fellow at the Brookings Institution who previously worked in the Treasury Department. “When I went into Treasury, I totally underrated that lever of power and authority.”As Treasury secretary, Mnuchin could do quite a bit to push whatever Trump prioritizes, even without congressional approval—from regulatory decisions on some of the largest nonbank financial institutions to going after China through trade policies to lowering the tax bill of corporations. To get an idea of where his power at Treasury would lie, POLITICO talked with a number of former officials and tax and finance experts. Here are four areas where he would have the most authority to change policy.1. Financial regulationMnuchin is a critic of Dodd-Frank, saying it has reduced lending and impeded economic growth but he can’t repeal the law, which can be accomplished only through legislation. However, the law itself gives the Treasury secretary significant authority over the financial system. One powerful lever comes as the head of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, an organization of the top financial regulators created by Dodd-Frank to identify and address systemic financial risks. Mnuchin, as head of FSOC, couldn’t unilaterally dictate the actions of the council. But he would have significant influence over its agenda. Among other powers, the council is responsible for designating nonbank financial institutions as systemically important, which results in much tighter regulations and oversight of the designated institutions. Mnuchin could upend that process. “He could basically shut down the FSOC designation process,” said Dennis Kelleher, head of Better Markets, a financial reform group. “Nobody would say it was shutting it down. What any Treasury secretary could do is direct the FSOC staff to look at nonbank threats in such a rigorous, onerous way that virtually no entity would ever be designated again.” That’s good news for companies that FSOC had been rumored to be considering designating as systemically important, including asset managers. They are “almost certainly popping champagne corks at this unexpected turn of events,” said Kelleher.Beyond FSOC, Mnuchin’s influence over Dodd-Frank is more limited. He has said the financial regulatory law is “too complicated” and intends to reform it. But Treasury is not a regulator, so it was largely not responsible for drafting Dodd-Frank rules and thus can’t undo them. One partial exception is the “Volcker rule,” which prevents banks from making bets with their own money. Treasury did have a role in writing that rule—but so did a number of other agencies. So any changes to the rule will have to be done in cooperation with the other regulators.That’s where Mnuchin could run into limits on his authority to roll back Dodd-Frank. The main bank regulators, such as the OCC, FDIC and Federal Reserve, are independent, so he cannot dictate their policy choices. But he can retain influence in one other way—By advising Trump on who should lead the bank regulators.“The single biggest influence the Treasury secretary has as the chief financial policy adviser is in the selection of regulators themselves,” said Bartlett Naylor, a financial policy expert at Public Citizen.2. Fannie and FreddieMnuchin wants to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage giants the government put into conservatorship during the financial crisis and that currently remain in limbo. But he will not be able to privatize the companies outright—at least, not just yet.Legislation passed in 2015 banned the federal government from ending the conservatorship without approval from Congress through 2017. After that year, he may have more leeway to make changes to the mortgage giants. Conservatives specifically want him to end the so-called profit sweeps under which Fannie and Freddie send their profits each quarter to the Treasury. It’s been a lucrative agreement for the federal government in recent years, but it prevented the mortgage giants from building up any capital, said James Glassman, a former undersecretary of state. He argued that Mnuchin should end the sweeps and allow Fannie and Freddie to be recapitalized. “That would make things better for taxpayers,” he said. However, that won’t be entirely up to Mnuchin, as the conservator—the Federal Housing Finance Agency—would also have to agree to any deal. “I remember during my time at Treasury unsuccessfully arguing for FHFA to adopt certain policies,” said Klein. “It was frustrating that Treasury owned 80 percent of Fannie and Freddie but couldn’t dictate business decisions.” The term of the current head of the FHFA, Mel Watt, doesn’t end until January, 2019. So unless Watt leaves early, Trump won’t be able to install a favored person at the agency for a few years.3. Taxes Republicans are eager to overhaul the tax code, and Mnuchin has reiterated that tax reform is a top priority, but that will have to be done through the legislative process. Mnuchin will undoubtedly have a significant role in drafting legislation—he was involved in writing Trump’s tax plan during the campaign—but he has no official power to lower tax rates or eliminate tax breaks.However, he does have some power over various regulations relating to the tax code. This past year, Treasury issued one particularly controversial regulation intended to stop companies from avoiding U.S. taxes by moving their official jurisdiction of residence to a low-tax country (known as an inversion). Republicans have sharply criticized that rule, and Mnuchin could look to roll it back. That won’t be quite so easy, expert said, as the rule was issued by both the Treasury and IRS. Though the IRS is housed within Treasury, it still retains a decent amount of working independence. “The IRS stuff takes a little more time than you think,” said Klein. “The IRS has a fair amount of structural independence, for good reason. Some of those policy things, once they are set in motion, are difficult to unwind.”Of course, Trump will select the next head of the IRS; Mnuchin will likely have a role in that decision. And the would-be Treasury secretary and the White House could garner more influence over the IRS if it so chose by modifying a series of memos, some of which date back decades, that limited oversight over regulations issued by the agency. “It certainly is independent, but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be less independent if they wanted it to be,” said Sam Batkins, a regulatory expert at the American Action Forum.4. TradeWhile the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has the biggest role over trade policy, Treasury has significant authority, as well. Most importantly, the department puts out a report every six months on countries that manipulate their currency. Trump promised during his campaign to designate China as a currency manipulator—a task that would fall on Mnuchin at Treasury.Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, said labeling China a currency manipulator and handling other international institutions like the World Bank and World Trade Organization could be very time-consuming, sucking up resources and crowding out other priorities. During the campaign, Trump threatened to pull out of the WTO and some of his proposed trade policies, such as enacting high tariffs on foreign countries, could violate WTO rules. Navigating these complex financial and diplomatic relationships will fall on Mnuchin.“That’s one area where he might get bogged down in a swamp,” said Zandi. “And that’s not good for anybody. But politically he may have no choice but to go into the swamp.”Correction: The story originally misspelled the name of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and said the wrong end date of FHFA Director Mel Watt's term.

01 декабря, 14:37

S&P Futures, Europe, Dollar Drop; Yields Rise As WTI Advances Above $50

Following a November to remember, which saw tremendous market gains following the election of Donald Trump, December has started off on the back foot, with US equity futures lower, European stocks halting a two day advance ahead of the Italian referendum, US Treasury yields higher and the US dollar backing away from a 9 month high. One place where recent euphoria has continued was oil, where following yesterday's OPEC oil deal and 9% surge in crude, WTI continued its ascent and was trading above $50 in early trading, however skepticism about the rally is building with stories such as "Oil price rally likely short-lived as OPEC deal not enough to reduce glut" from Reuters and "Hangover Awaits as OPEC Celebrates Its Biggest Accord in Years" from Bloomberg. Analyst were also skeptical: “Oil could go up to $60, but then the shale drillers come out and the price will likely come back down,” Keigo Matsubara, chief financial officer of the Japanese trading house said in an interview Thursday. “Oil can’t continue over $50.”  "The question is whether this (production cut) is going to put a floor under the oil price from here. The answer to that could well depend on what happens with the global economy in the coming year," said Simon Smith, chief economist at FXPro. All eyes are now on whether the OPEC deal will hold together. If the bounce in oil prices gathers pace after the OPEC deal it was expected to have a broad implication on the global economy. OPEC's output cut is also seen as a boon for U.S. shale producers, rivals to the oil cartel. The S&P energy index .SPNY jumped nearly 5 percent on Wednesday. While November may have been one of the most unforgettable months in markets in years, December is shaping up just as exciting: this is the month of the Italian referendum, the Austrian election (where Europe's first far right leader since WWII could be elected), a probable Fed hike (only the second in 10 and a half years) and a big ECB decision on what next for QE. Ahead of these events, the U.S. dollar declined against most of its 16 major peers before a payrolls report on Friday, while a measure of euro volatility jumped to the highest since before the Brexit vote as investors brace for Italy’s referendum and Austria’s presidential election on Dec. 4 and the European Central Bank’s policy decision in a week’s time. The jump in oil prices added to inflation expectations in the United States, which were already rising on prospects that president-elect Donald Trump would adopt reflationary policies using a large fiscal stimulus. As a result the rout in U.S. Treasuries resumed, with yields pushing higher, especially on longer-dated bonds.  The overnight slump in Treasuries extended the biggest climb in 10-year yields since 2009. The 10Y Treasury yield increased three basis points to 2.41% after surging nine basis points Wednesday to their highest close since July last year. It jumped 56 basis points last month. The 30-year yield has climbed more than 40 basis points since the Nov. 8 presidential election, heading back towards a 14-month peak of 3.09 percent marked last week. "Higher oil prices, talk of ultra-long issuance in the U.S. and strong U.S. data all helped push U.S. yields higher," RBC Capital markets said in a note to clients on Thursday. "This remains our key theme for next year as well – we believe U.S. yields will keep leading the charge higher on improving macro backdrop and rising inflation expectations." 10Y German bunds added 4 bps to 0.31%. Not surprisingly, according to Roger Bridges, the chief global strategist for interest rates and currencies in Sydney at Nikko Asset Management’s Australia unit, "a lot of people are beginning to think that it is the end of the bull rally." The Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Total Return Index of bonds fell 4 percent in November, biggest decline since index started in 1990. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5% as all but three of the 19 industry groups retreated. S&P 500 Index futures slid 0.1 percent, signaling U.S. shares may continue their Wednesday decline. Glencore Plc gained 3 percent after saying its debt reduction plan is on track and it will reinstate its dividend next year. Banco Popular Espanol SA rose 3.5 percent after a report the lender is weighing a potential merger with another bank and has approached Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, among others. Daily Mail and General Trust Plc rose 6.4 percent after it reported 2016 revenue that beat estimates. "We are all waiting for the NFP tomorrow, the referendum in Italy this weekend and the ECB next week,” Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G-10 currency strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in an email. “It’s consolidation ahead of key events." Today, traders will be looking to non-farm payrolls data for more clues on the pace of interest-rate increases, after ADP Research Institute reported the biggest jump in private-sector workers since June. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2196 Stoxx 600 down 0.5% to 340 DAX down 0.7% to 10569 German 10Yr yield up 4bps to 0.31% Italian 10Yr yield up 1bp to 2% Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.57% S&P GSCI Index up 0.5% to 378.9 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.6% to 137 Nikkei 225 up 1.1% to 18513 Hang Seng up 0.4% to 22878 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3273 S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 5500 US 10-yr yield up 3bps to 2.41% Dollar Index down 0.27% to 101.23 WTI Crude futures up 0.5% to $49.70 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $52.21 Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,168 Silver spot down 0.8% to $16.38 Top Global News Starboard Said to Push Rockwell Collins to Reassess B/E Deal: Activist said to take Rockwell Collins stake to push for sale Destructive Hacks Strike Saudi Arabia, Posing Challenge to Trump: Multiple attacks eminated from Iran, digital evidence suggests China Factory Gauge Jumps as Borrowing Boosts Old Drivers: Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.7, services advance to 54.7 Credit Suisse Said to Freeze Accounts in Search for U.S. Assets: U.S. prosecutors now asking why $200 million was hidden Goldman Sees Oil Breaking $60 If OPEC Deal Done as Promised: Full OPEC compliance, Russia’s curb bullish for oil United May Amend $12.4 Billion Airbus Deal to Take Smaller Jets: CFO Levy says A350-1000s may be swapped for smaller aircraft SAC Capital to Pay $135 Million to End Last Insider Case: Steve Cohen’s old firm agrees to settle with Elan shareholders Georgia Won’t Publish Chicken Price This Week on Lack of Data: Agriculture department says too few producers participating Russia Weaponized Social Media in U.S. Election, FireEye Says: Senate Democrats want data on Russian hacking declassified * * * Looking at regional markets, Asia stocks shrugged off the weak close in the US and traded higher across the board amid encouraging Chinese PMIs and strength in energy following the OPEC output deal. Energy names led in the ASX 200 (+1.1%) on the back of an almost 10% surge in oil prices after OPEC reached an agreement to cut output by 1.2mln bpd to 32.5mln bpd starting in January. Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) initially soared to its best level this year on JPY weakness after USD/JPY broke above 114.00 in the prior session, although the index failed to maintain YTD highs on profit taking and a pull-back in USD/JPY. Shanghai Comp (+0.7%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) were underpinned after Chinese Official Mfg PMI topped estimates to post its highest since July 2014 and although the Caixin Mfg PMI was at a slight miss, it still represented a 5th consecutive month of expansion. 10yr JGBs saw spill-over selling from USTs, with demand for JGBs also dampened amid gains in stocks. However, 10yr JGBs pared some losses despite a softer 10yr auction than the previous month, as the results were deemed roughly consistent with this year's averages. Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 51.7 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prey. 51.2), highest level since July 2014. Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 54.7 (Prey. 54.0) highest level since June 2014. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 50.9 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prey. 51.2). Top Asian News PBOC Seen Shifting Focus in Yuan Battle as Foreign Reserves Drop: China said to have set up new hurdles for yuan, M&A outflows India Manufacturing PMI Slips From 22-Month High After Cash Ban: Nov. reading was 52.3, first indicator since cash decision Rupee’s November Swoon Casts Shadow on India Unhedged Debts: India Inc. due to repay $10 billion of overseas debt by March Alphadyne Said to Spin Off $2 Billion Singapore Hedge Fund Unit: Transition to new firm said to start in first half of 2017 DBS Eliminates a Dozen Jobs at Brokerage as Trading Slumps: Value of shares traded in city-state down 24% from 2013 European equities have spent the session in the red (Euro Stoxx: -0.4%) with underperformance seen in defensive names. This comes after the significant strength seen during yesterday's session in tandem with the OPEC deal, with energy names continuing to outperform today. Financials are also higher this morning, with Deutsche Bank leading the way higher in the DAX, Italian Banks the best performers in the FTSE MIB and Banco Popular the best performer in Europe after dual reports of potential interest from BBVA and reports that the chairman may be replaced. Fixed income markets have seen yields rise, with the US 10Y breaking above 2.4% to reach its highest level since July 2015, while over in Europe outperformance has been seen in the periphery. Also of note, today sees supply from both Spain and France. Top European News Glencore’s Reversal of Fortune Marked by Return to Dividends: Investors weren’t expecting a dividend reinstatement, Goldman says Maersk Line Teams Up With Oetker Group to Buy Hamburg Süd: World’s No. 1 shipping line will take over the industry’s seventh biggest container liner Euro-Area Manufacturing Picks Up as Weaker Euro Bolsters Exports: Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing rose to 53.7 from 53.5 in October In currencies, the dollar slipped 0.2 percent to 114.27 yen at 10:15 a.m. in London. It weakened 0.3 percent versus the euro to $1.0616, while the pound was also up 0.3 percent to $1.2544. Bloomberg’s Dollar Spot Index slid 0.2 percent after advancing 0.5 percent Wednesday, leaving it up 3.9 percent in November, the most since September 2014.  Traders are paying the most since June’s peak to protect against price swings in the euro versus the dollar, according to one-week implied volatility in the currency pair. The yuan dropped 0.1 percent onshore, reflecting dollar strength, and gained 0.2 percent offshore amid strengthening factory gauges and a crackdown on capital flow. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.9 percent to $49.87 a barrel after trading as high as $50.24 earlier. It surged 9.3 percent last session, the biggest one-day gain since Feb. 12. It ended November up 5.5 percent. The OPEC-led deal was broader than many people had expected, given that it extended beyond the bloc with Russia agreeing to unprecedented cuts to its own output. U.S. natural gas futures for January rose to highest for front-month contract since December 2014 as cold weather seen sweeping west. Gold slipped 0.3 percent to the lowest level since February. Zinc gained 0.6 percent, while copper fell 0.8 percent. Metals in London in November had their best month since 2010. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll firstly get the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading, followed then by the final manufacturing PMI revision, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing print for November (market consensus is for 52.5 versus 51.9 in October). Later the November vehicle sales numbers will also be released (expected to decline modestly). Away from the data the Fed’s Mester and Kaplan are both due to speak again, while the ECB’s Coeure is also scheduled to speak. US Event Calendar 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts y/y, Nov. (prior -39.1%) 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 26, est. 253k (prior 251k) 8:30am: Fed’s Mester speaks in Washington 9am: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in San Antonio 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Nov. 27 (prior 44.8) 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Nov. F, est. 53.9 (prior 53.9) 10am: ISM Manufacturing, Nov., est. 52.5 (prior 51.9) 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to December the month of the Italian referendum, the Austrian election (where Europe's first far right leader since WWII could be elected), a probable Fed hike (only the second in 10 and a half years) and a big ECB decision on what next for QE. So it is unlikely to be quiet. Ahead of this today I find out whether my second knee operation in 18 months was a success or not as the 5-month MRI results will be reviewed by the consultant. Last night I spent an hour on YouTube learning to self diagnose the CD of the scan which was probably a very silly thing to do. All I know is there is a river of swelling still slushing around my knee and that my meniscus doesn't look anything like the 25-year olds I saw on the YouTube clip. One asset that made a very late run towards the top was Oil. OPEC yesterday announced their first oil production agreement in 8 years which will see production cut by 1.2 mmb/d to about 32.5 mmb/d for six months from the start of January 2017, with the option to extend the agreement to the end of 2017. Aggregate production has been stated in terms of the 14 OEPC members including Indonesia, although Indonesia is no longer a member as of this meeting. Non-OPEC members including Russia have also agreed to lower production by 600 kb/d. The heavy lifting though looks set to be done by Saudi Arabia who has agreed to reduce output by 486 kb/d. At the same time the Saudi’s appear to have softened their stance on Iran somewhat with the latter now freezing production at just shy of 3.8 mmb/d and marginally higher than current levels. Iraq, who had previously disputed cutting, agreed to a cut of 210 kb/d. By the end of play WTI had closed up +9.31% at $49.44/bbl. It had been up a little more than 10% at one stage although just failed to break the $50/bbl mark. Brent had no such issue though and smashed through $50 to close +9.55% or $4.50 higher on the day at $51.84/bbl. The move for WTI in particular is the biggest one-day gain since February 12th. In fact we thought it would be interesting to see how many times WTI has risen more than yesterday on a single day. Bloomberg pricing data goes back to 1983 and in the 8435 trading days since then, yesterday ranks 33rd by largest one day moves in both percentage terms and also in Dollar terms. Our commodity strategists pointed out in their note last night that the agreement is more bullish than market expectations in that first, the 33.0 mmb/d upper limit in the range has been omitted, leaving the 32.5 mmb/d as the sole target level. Second, the non-OPEC contributions of 600 kb/d have been described as nearly agreed, with Russia and Oman having been named as key contributors. That said while the agreement is clearly a big help for the demand-supply rebalancing, our colleagues still remain sceptical that the full non-OPEC reduction will be realised. They retain their pre-existing expectation of OPEC-14 production at 33.2 mmb/d in 2017 (32.46 mmb/d excluding Indonesia which has now left the organisation) and reaffirm their price forecasts for next year at $55/bbl for Brent and $53/bbl for WTI. The biggest feed through to other asset classes from the Oil move was in sovereign bond markets where the reflationary effect had yields spiking higher. 10y Treasury yields surged 9bps to 2.382% after peaking a little above 2.400%, and in the process closed at the highest yield since July 2015. Yields are now over 100bps higher than where they were just 5 months ago. There was a similar move for EM sovereigns while in Europe 10y Bund yields edged up just over 5bps to 0.271%. BTP’s outperformed again with 10y yields ‘only’ 4bps higher. Aiding the bond-selloff though was some decent data in the US. In particular the ADP employment change reading which came in ahead of consensus at 216k (vs. 170k expected) ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. More on the other data shortly. Meanwhile it was a much more mixed performance across equity markets. Despite a near 5% rally for the energy sector and also a strong day for financials following a positive reaction to the appointment of Steven Mnuchin as US Treasury Secretary – who has since told CNBC to expect ‘the largest tax change since Reagan’ – and the move for rates, those gains were more than offset by weakness across utilities, telecoms and the consumer staples sectors resulting in the index closing down -0.27% by the final bell. It was a slightly better tone in Europe though with the Stoxx 600 edging up +0.31% while the Italian FTSE MIB (+2.23%) concluded its second consecutive >2% bounce ahead of this Sunday’s referendum. This morning in Asia, with Oil largely consolidating gains, a surge for energy stocks has led bourses higher in the region. The standout is the Nikkei (+2.15%) which has also benefited from a much weaker Yen yesterday, while the Hang Seng (+0.69%), Shanghai Comp (+0.52%), Kospi (+0.08%) and ASX (+0.91%) have also edged higher. Helping sentiment too was the release of the November PMI’s in China this morning. The official manufacturing PMI has risen 0.5pts to 51.7 (vs. 51.0 expected) and to the highest since July 2014, while the non-official PMI rose 0.7pts to 54.7 which is the highest since June 2014. The independent Caixin survey did however paint a slightly different picture with the manufacturing reading edging down 0.3pts to 50.9 with most sub indices also softening. Back to the remaining US data yesterday. There was a positive readthrough from the latest personal income print which rose +0.6% mom in October (vs. +0.4% expected), with data in the month prior also revised up. Personal income rose +0.3% mom during the month (vs. +0.5% expected) but September data was revised up two-tenths meaning the YoY rate rose to +4.2% and the most since January 2015. The PCE core rose +0.1% mom as expected while the deflator rose a little bit less than expected (+0.2% mom vs. +0.3% expected). Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI rose a bumper 7pts to 57.6 (vs. 52.5 expected) which is the highest since January 2015 and a positive read across for today’s ISM manufacturing. The final data to note was the October pending home sales data where sales were reported as rising +0.1% mom as expected in October. Before we move to today’s diary, a quick wrap up of yesterday’s data in Europe. The highlight was perhaps the flash Euro area CPI report for November which revealed headline inflation of +0.6% yoy which is up one-tenth from October and in fact the highest reading since April 2014. The core was unchanged at +0.8% yoy. In Germany retail sales rose a bumper +2.4% mom in October (vs. +1.0% expected) while Germany’s unemployment was reported as holding steady last month at 6%. In France, CPI came in slightly ahead of consensus for last month in the flash reading (0.0% mom vs. -0.1% expected), helping to raise the YoY rate to +0.5% from +0.4%. The last thing to note is the BoE’s Financial Stability Report and the latest round of stress test results. According to the report the ‘the economy has entered a period of adjustment following the EU referendum’ and so ‘the likelihood that some UK specific risks to financial stability could materialize remains elevated’. Meanwhile the stress tests revealed that there are some ‘capital inadequacies’ at three institutions. It was noted however that ‘the banking system is in aggregate capitalised to support the real economy in a severe, broad and synchronised stress scenario’. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we kick off with the November Nationwide House price index reading for the UK. After that it’s all about the manufacturing PMI’s where we’ll get final revisions for Germany, France and the Euro area as well as a first look at the data for the non-core and the UK. Also due out today is the latest unemployment rate print for the Euro area. This afternoon in the US we’ll firstly get the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading, followed then by the final manufacturing PMI revision, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing print for November (market consensus is for 52.5 versus 51.9 in October). Later this evening the November vehicle sales numbers will also be released (expected to decline modestly). Away from the data the Fed’s Mester (1.30pm GMT) and Kaplan (2pm GMT) are both due to speak again, while the ECB’s Coeure is also scheduled to speak.

01 декабря, 13:14

Trump Treasury pick made millions after his bank foreclosed on homeowners

Steven Mnuchin's OneWest filed to take a 90-year-old woman's house after a 27-cent payment error.

01 декабря, 13:00

Trump's Tax Cuts Imply Billions Worth Of Deferred Tax Asset Writedowns For Wall Street Banks

Corporate tax reform has been a key policy initiative of Trump's as he has called for slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% down to 15%.  While this is welcome news for most companies, it would result in some fairly staggering writedowns for Wall Street's largest banks that amassed substantial net operating losses in 2008 and 2009. According to Bloomberg, Citibank would be hardest hit with writedowns that could hit earnings for up to $12 billion or more.  Donald Trump’s planned U.S. corporate tax cuts could translate to a big one-time earnings hit for many of the biggest U.S. banks, thanks to tax benefits they generated during the 2008 financial crisis.   Citigroup Inc. would take the deepest earnings hit -- perhaps $12 billion or more, according to recent estimates by the bank’s chief financial officer and several banking analysts. Mark Costiglio, a Citigroup spokesman, declined to comment. Others, including Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co. could face multibillion-dollar writedowns.   The banks might have to write down deferred tax assets, which often pile up when a company loses money and can’t immediately enjoy the tax benefits of those losses. Any writedowns won’t have much impact on capital levels for the banks for regulatory purposes, and lower taxes will allow for higher earnings in the long run. But a one-time hit to earnings can make for a bruising quarter -- and even year -- for a bank’s results.   “It’s a traumatic experience for companies with large” amounts of such assets, said Robert Willens, an independent tax and accounting expert in New York. “In one fell swoop, a significant part of their net worth goes up in smoke.” Among other things, Trump's major tax policy proposals for businesses include slashing the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35%, providing a one-time repatriation holiday of 10% for cash held overseas and allowing businesses with manufacturing operations in the United States to expense capital expenditures.  While it's unlikely that he'll get all of those proposals through Congress, even a rate reduction to 25% would result a meaningful earnings hit for the banks. Trump and House Republicans, led by Speaker Paul Ryan, have proposed dramatic corporate tax-rate cuts -- part of what they pledge will be the biggest tax overhaul since President Ronald Reagan’s era. Trump has called for cutting the rate to 15 percent, while the House Republican “blueprint” for tax changes proposes 20 percent.   It’s unclear which rate might prevail -- or whether a deal might be reached for a wholly different rate. Amid that uncertainty, some analysts and executives have calculated the potential effects of a 25 percent rate -- roughly the average corporate tax rate of the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.   Even if the U.S. corporate rate declines to 25%, Citigroup could have to take an earnings hit of $12BN while Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Goldman would all be looking at multi-billion dollar writedowns as well. At a 25 percent rate, Citigroup would be required to lower its earnings by $6 billion to reflect the reduced value of its tax-deferred assets, John Gerspach, the bank’s chief financial officer, told investors at a conference hosted by Bank of America on Nov. 16.   But that could change if a Republican call for exempting overseas corporate earnings from U.S. taxation is enacted as part of the tax overhaul. Under that scenario, Gerspach said, Citigroup would have to write down as much as $12 billion -- because a large part of its deferred tax assets consist of unused foreign tax credits.   Calculations by Brian Kleinhanzl, a financial-sector analyst at KBW, show that at a 25 percent corporate tax rate, Bank of America would face a $6.6 billion writedown, while Wells Fargo’s would be $4 billion. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s would be $1.6 billion, according to KBW’s estimates. Meanwhile, Fannie and Freddie could also be looking at writedowns of over $15BN in aggregate.  According to KBW, that level of earnings hit may be sufficient to trigger the need for another capital infusion from the Treasury Department. The implications might also reach mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which could see write downs of $10 billion and $5.4 billion respectively, according to a Nov. 27 KBW research note. Those hits would be large enough to potentially require both of them to seek a new infusion of money from the Treasury Department, the note said. Peter Garuccio, a spokesman for the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees the government-backed lenders, declined to comment. Of course, in reality these 1x charges will most likely be dismissed by investors, to the extent they don't trigger incremental capital requirements, as the long-term impact of lower tax rates is universally positive for corporate cash flow.  Meanwhile, companies with deferred tax liabilities, including AT&T and Apple, will enjoy the reciprocal benefits of 1x paper gains. “Over time, any impact will be offset by lower rates,” said Jerry Dubrowski, a spokesman for Bank of America. Ancel Martinez, a spokesman for Wells Fargo, declined to comment. “It is impossible for us to comment until we have seen legislative detail,” said Jake Siewert, a Goldman Sachs spokesman.   To be sure, any federal tax overhaul might include rules allowing companies more time to generate taxable income and fully harvest their deferred tax assets. Also, the one-time hit to earnings would be followed by higher income over the longer term, which would allow many banks to build capital faster.   “Long-term, it’s positive, because companies will report increased earnings-per-share,” said KBW’s Cannon. “Short-term, tax reform won’t have as large a positive effect on banks -- Citi is the 800-pound gorilla.”   The short-term bad news has a financial flipside: Companies with so-called deferred tax liabilities -- future tax bills that they now expect to pay at the 35 percent rate -- would get a sudden windfall if the corporate rate is cut. Winners would include AT&T Inc., which could see an immediate, one-time earnings boost of as much as $30 billion, and Apple Inc., which could see an extra $15 billion, Willens said. AT&T’s tax liabilities stem from depreciation and amortization tied to investments in equipment, he said, while Apple’s relate to anticipated U.S. tax bills on overseas earnings. Like all other financial news these days, the market's ultimate takeaway from Trump's tax plan will be to buy more of everything...that said, you have to appreciate the irony here.

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14 января 2014, 08:56

Профицит бюджета США в декабре достиг рекорда

  Профицит бюджета США в декабре стал рекордным на фоне более высоких налогов на заработную плату, выплат со стороны Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, а также снижения уровня безработицы. Доходы превысили расходы в прошлом месяце на $53,2 млрд по сравнению с дефицитом на уровне $1,19 млрд в декабре 2012 г., свидетельствуют данные Минфина США. Экономисты, опрошенные Bloomberg, ожидали показатель на уровне $44 млрд. В 2013 г. безработица в стране сократилась на 1,2 процентного пункта до 6,7%, и это самое сильное падение в годовом выражении с 1983 г. Укрепление экономики и увеличение налоговых поступлений позволили сократить дефицит страны в прошлом финансовом году, закончившемся 30 сентября, более чем наполовину: до $680,3 млрд по сравнению с рекордным показателем в $1,42 трлн в 2009 г. "Мы продолжаем видеть улучшение экономических условий, которое в настоящее время отражено в сокращении бюджетного дефицита", - отметил экономист Wells Fargo Securities LLC Майкл Браун. Доходность 10-летних казначейских облигаций снизилась до 2,83%, приблизившись к самому низкому уровню за месяц.  Доходы бюджета составили $283,2 млрд в прошлом месяце по сравнению с $269,5 млрд в декабре 2012 г. Расходы составил $230 млрд по сравнению с $270,7 млрд в прошлом году. В течение первых трех месяцев текущего финансового года дефицит составил $176,3 млрд, тогда как с октября по декабрь 2012 г. показатель составлял $293,3 млрд. Платежи в казну от Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac выросли за год примерно на $34 млрд.

10 мая 2013, 06:16

Про MBS и ипотечные кредиты

Мы совсем как то эту тему забросили, а зря. Все же на этот рынок много завязано. О каких суммах идет речь? Объем ипотечных кредитов (для жилой недвижимости, коммерческой, сельскохозяйственной) составляет 13.1 трлн долл на конец 2012 года. Из этих 13.1 трлн более 9.4 трлн записано на домохозяйства. Под эти кредиты выпускали тоннами всякого MBS’осного шлака, процесс полностью остановился в 2008 году. Сейчас совокупный объем MBS составляет 7.54 трлн, т.е. почти 58% всех ипотечных кредитов было секьюритизировано. На пике зверства было под 70%. Из 7.54 трлн около 80% эмитировано Government-sponsored enterprises (GSE) всякие там fannie mae и freddie mac, остальное остальное на частные структуры. Причем стоит обратить внимание на то, что в 2009 году более 4.4 трлн дефолтных бумаг (!) было изъято из частных структур в пользу государственных. Не будь этого, то все рухнуло. Программа TARP, кредитование ФРС и QE здесь не учитываются.Как это было...Чтобы оценить тенденции и масштабы, то лучше всего на графике.Как видно, процесс сокращения ипотечных кредитов продолжается. Низкие процентные ставки не помогают, кредиты не берут. А выкуп MBS не помогает тем более, т.к. сам процесс выкупа не имеет ни малейшего отношения к способностям и желаниям заемщиков получать кредит. Все, к чему имеет отношение ФРС - это стимуляция дальнейшей активности бангстеров по секьюритизации ипотечных кредитов, но если нет роста кредитов, то и чисто теоретически не может быть никакого роста активности в MBS. Поэтому проблема не в предложении кредитов, т.е не в банках, а в спросе (заемщиках). Нет спроса на кредиты, а банки бы рады опять шарманку запустить.Максимум, что может получиться из этой безумной затеи ФРС - так это провоцирование отрыва башни у бангстеров . С тем, чтобы условия получения займов были столь простыми, что получить займ мог бы любой, кто имеет в активах хотя бы один чупа чупс и половину недопитой банки коки. Возврат к тому, от чего пришли. Ничего этих людей не исправит.Кто держит весь этот мусор?Разумеется больше всех у ФРС – 1 трлн на конец 2012 и 1.15 трлн в настоящий момент. Ни одна структура единолично столько не держит. Это 15% рынка на 2012, к концу 2013 будет держать все 20% рынка. Тем самым это означает, что ценообразование на этом рынке под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Проще говоря, вторичного рынка больше не существует.Почти 4.5 трлн у финансовых структур (1.6 трлн коммерческие банки, 350 млрд ипотечные трасты, 347 млрд страховые фонды, 223 млрд пенсионные фонды, 170 млрд у брокеров и так далее).Частный сектор (домохозяйства и корпорации) сократили вложения почти в ноль. Причем домохозяйства по каким то загадочным причинам начали скупать MBS тогда, когда они наиболее активно падали в цене. На тот момент (2007-2008) они были самым крупным покупателем на рынке, нарастив всего за 1.5 года объем MBS на 500 млрд до 1.02 трлн, а потом в период с 2009 по 2010 все продали, когда ФРС запустил QE1Я раньше вам говорил, но повторю. Эта операция была похожа на хорошо спланированный инсайд. Группа лиц инсайдеров и аффилированных лиц с ФРС примерно в конце 2007-середине 2008 знала, что будет неизбежный выкуп MBS со стороны ФРС для поддержания рынка и примерно тогда готовился план по банкротству Лемана. Учитывая, что бумаги продавались с дисконтом, то предположительно через частные счета и некоммерческие организации был проведен выкуп на 300-400 млрд бумаг, которые по рыночной цене не стоили и половину от номинала. А потом продавали по номиналу ФРС, заработав сотни процентов чистой прибыли. Также поступали и дилеры, но в отличие от юридических лиц, физиков и НКО никто проверять не будет, т.к. об этом никто даже не догадывается. Т.е. более, чем вероятно, что на инсайде смогли отмыть через мошеннические схемы более 150 млрд чистой прибыли.Основные выводы1. Роста кредитования нет.2. Эмиссии MBS нет, т.к. нет роста кредитования.3. Рынок MBS под полным контролем ФРС и дилеров. Еще никогда в истории одна структура не держала такую долю рынка. 15% на 2012 и 20% на конец 2013. Вторичного рынка больше не существует в свободном формате. Цены регулируются ФРС.4. ФРС частная лавочка бангстеров и инсайдеров, которая действует прежде всего в интересах бангстеров и инсайдеров.5. По множеству косвенных и прямых признаков, инсайд о вероятном запуске QE1 был еще в начале 2008 года. Много подозрительных теневых операций по переброски средств в НКО. Откуда у НКО пол триллиона баксов, которые выкупали это говно в момент острой паники и краха. По моим оценка отмыли не менее 150 млрд чистой прибыли.6. Когда MBS в объеме не увеличиваются, а ФРС выкупает под 40 млрд в месяц + когда ФРС монетизирует гос.долг США, то избыточная ликвидность абсорбируется на рынке акций. Реципиентом являются дилеры – те, кто работает с ФРС и получает ликвидность от ФРС. НЕ нужно питать иллюзий, что рост фондового рынка чем то фундаментально обоснован. Очередная гнусная операция по перекачки ликвидности и поддержанию рентабельности фин.сектора в условиях, когда активность клиентов спала на рекордно низкий уровень. Не будет QE = не будет роста рынка.7. Единственной хорошей новостью является то, что этот бардак выходит на финишную прямую. Когда они сосредоточили в руках почти всю возможную власть и активы, то прорыв этого чуда-юда неизбежен. Учитывая то, насколько все ухудшилось за последний год, то ждать осталось не так и долго. Еще никогда контроль над активыми не был столь тотальным и всеобъемлющим.Более детальная таблица держателей MBS

25 сентября 2012, 13:50

ФРС может расширить список выкупаемых активов

Федеральная резервная система может увеличить объемы и расширить список активов, выкупаемых в рамках проведения третей программы количественного смягчения. Об этом заявил президент Федерального резервного банка Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс.Такие действия возможны в ответ на слабую реакцию экономики США на текущий формат стимулирования экономики."В отличие от наших прошлых программ по выкупу активов у этой нет заранее определенной даты завершения. Вместо этого она напрямую привязана к тому, что происходит с экономикой. Мы можем даже расширить наши покупки, с тем чтобы включить в них другие активы", - заявил Уильямс.Уильямс также отметил, что хоть и согласно мандату ФРС список бумаг, который может быть на балансе регулятора, ограничен, однако все еще есть возможность выкупа казначейских облигаций всех сроков обращения, долговых обязательств ипотечных агентств Freddie Mac и Fannie Mae.Помимо этого, Уильямс также ожидает продления сроков программы "Твист". "Я ожидаю, что мы продолжим эту программу в 2013 году, и я также думаю, что существуют сильные предпосылки для увеличения объемов или продолжения выкупа других активов в 2013 году, включая Treasuries с более длительными сроками обращения", - отметил Уильямс.По прогнозам представителя регулятора, ФРС удастся добиться снижения безработицы до 7,25% уже в 2014 г., поэтому программа выкупа активов будет завершена до конца 2014 г.