At the invitation of the Italian Presidency of the Group of Seven (G7) in 2017, the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) conducted a research project on “Major Challenges for Global Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of the G7” together with a major policy think tank in each of the other G7 member countries: Center for International […]
"Недавно два члена совета управляющих ЕЦБ, Эвальд Новотны (Ewald Nowotny) и Игнацио Виско (Ignazio Visco), поддержали разговоры о том, что ставки в еврозоне могут подняться раньше, чем ожидалось, - отмечает главный стратег по валютам и Глава экономического отдела по Германии Julius Baer Дэвид Коль. - Мы полагаем, что такие ожидания обоснованы, но важно отметить, что оба представителя руководства ЕЦБ говорят об отрицательной ставке по депозитам, которая сейчас находится на уровне -0,4%, а не об основной ставке рефинансирования, которая установлена на нулевой отметке. Отрицательная ставка по депозитам, вместе со стратегией обнародования прогнозов дальнейшей политики и программой закупки активов, является частью нетрадиционной монетарной политики ЕЦБ. Несомненно, в последнее время активизировались споры внутри самого ЕЦБ о порядке, в котором банк будет сворачивать эти меры. Определенно, ЕЦБ хочет всеми возможными способами избежать что-то вроде ситуации в США в мае 2013 года, когда доходы по государственным облигациям выросли на более чем 100 базисных пунктов за очень короткий период времени".
**Must-Read:** Human smiles and human truly creative thought look to remain economically valuable. So learn how to smile! **Duncan Weldon**: [Are the Robots Taking Enough Jobs?](http://equitablegrowth.org/?p=16086): "Andy Haldane has warned that new technologies could replace up to 15 million British jobs... >...Ignazio Visco, trod much the same ground. Both policymakers are taking the threat of computerisation... seriously.... Historically... waves of new technology have created as many jobs as they have destroyed.... This time might be different, the next wave of labour-saving technology looks to be replacing human brains, rather than human brawn, and the impact could be far more wide-reaching. And, even if this time isn't different... adjustments... in the past led to a generation or more of economic pain... >
Euro Crash Continues Sending Stocks Higher, Yields To Record Lows; Crude Stabilizes On New King's Comments
Today's market action is largely a continuation of the QE relief rally, where - at least for the time being - the market bought the rumor for over 2 years and is desperate to show it can aslo buy the news. As a result, the European multiple-expansion based stock ramp has resumed with the Eurostoxx advancing for a 7th day to extend their highest level since Dec. 2007. As we showed yesterday, none of the equity action in Europe is based on fundamentals, but is the result of multiple expansion, with the PE on European equities now approaching 20x, a surge of nearly 70% in the past 2 years. But the real story is not in equities but in bonds where the perfectly expected frontrunning, as well as backrunning, of some €800 billion in European debt issuance over the next year, taking more than 100% of European net supply, has hit new record levels just as forecast: YIELD ON US 10Y DROPS 6BPS TO 1.80% GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD LOW 0.37% BELGIAN 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD LOW 0.685% FRENCH 10 YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD LOW 0.585% SPANISH 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD LOW 1.365% ITALIAN 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD LOW 1.512% HUNGARIAN 10 YEAR BOND YIELD DROPS TO RECORD LOW 2.92% POLISH 10 YEAR BOND YIELD FALLS TO RECORD LOW 2.06% The rush into risk is further facilitates by the crashing Euro which has just tumbled below 1.12 , the lowest level in 11 years, and is now sure to lead to major FX losses for US multinationals, as well as a collapse in Chinese exports, further intensifying the global deflationary wave. Perhaps just as notable is that following yesterday's expected, but still surprising, announcement of 91-year-old King Abdullah's death, which sent Brent briefly higher, the crude complex has come back down to earth after his successor, Prince Salman, said he would maintain policies on oil. To think: just 6 months ago the Saudi news would have likley sent the oil complex limit up... Over in Asia, stock markets rose across the board following suit from sharp rallies across the globe after the ECB’s larger-than-expected QE announcement. The Nikkei 225 (+1.05%) traded close to 1-month high although unable to finish around best levels weighed by a modest JPY rebound. Shanghai Comp (+0.25%) and Hang Seng (+1.3%) were further bolstered by a better than Exp. Chinese HSBC Flash Mfg. PMI (49.8 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.6), despite the number showing the 2nd consecutive month of contraction. As noted above, European equities (Eurostoxx50 +1.43) reside firmly in the green in a continuation of yesterday’s gains following the larger than expected ECB quantitative easing programme which is providing support for the DAX, currently trading near record highs. However, Italian banks remain under pressure weighing on the FTSE MIB following news today that the Populari banks' lobby will oppose new legislation imposing change into joint-stock companies. In Fixed income, the unveiling of the sovereign bond programme has led to Eurozone bond yields continuing to print fresh record lows with the bund future up 87 ticks heading into the North American session, with T-notes up 19 ticks in sympathy with the move. Of note, the Prelim Barclays month end extensions for US Treasury is at +0.09y (Prev. +0.09yrs). European risk got a modest tailwind from today's flash PMI report, which was fractionally better than expected, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 51.0 from 50.6, the highest in 6 months. Goldman explains: "The Euro area composite PMI rose from 51.4 to 52.2 in January, more than our and consensus expectations of a smaller increase (Cons: 51.7, GS: 51.6). The expansion in the composite PMI was driven by a 0.7pt increase in the services component to 52.3 and by a 0.4pt rise in the manufacturing component to 51.0. The German composite PMI continued to rise, by 0.6pt to 52.6, while the French composite PMI fell back by 0.2pt to stand at 49.5. In addition to the Euro area aggregate PMI, Flash PMIs were released for Germany and France. The German composite PMI came in stronger than expected at 52.6 in January (Cons: 52.4). The 0.6pt increase in the services PMI (to 52.7) more than offset the 0.2pt contraction in the manufacturing component. The German composite PMI has been volatile in the past year and declined during 2014 as a whole but, in the past three months it has displayed positive momentum. By contrast, the French composite PMI declined by 0.2pt to 49.5, against consensus expectations of a small increase (Cons: 50.1). While the French manufacturing PMI expanded by a notable 2.0pt (to 49.5), the French services PMI lost 1.1pt (to 49.5). The French manufacturing PMI has been below the 50 mark for 9 consecutive months, pointing to lingering weaknesses. As also noted previously, WTI (+1.2%) and Brent crude (+1.9%) futures traded higher overnight following news of the death of King Abdullah, who was an advocate for lower prices. However, oil prices have since pulled away from best levels throughout the morning due to reports that his successor Prince Salman would maintain policies on oil. Elsewhere, copper (-1.8%) prices fell after speculation over aggressive Chinese hedge fund selling and China’s second contractionary PMI reading also weighing on the base metal. Finally, and most importantly in a world in which just central banks, and the occasional robot, are left trading FX with each other, EUR/USD extended on its decline following yesterday’s news of the ECB’s larger than expected QE programme, which caused the pair to breach 1.1300 to hit Sep. 2003 lows. The weaker EUR has also weighed on EUR/CHF as it descended to its lowest level in 12 years and lifted the USD-index (+0.6%) which is trading around 11yr highs. Moreover, in response to the weaker EUR, analysts this morning have been hypothesizing that the SNB could well cut rates again in the near-term in a similar fashion to the Danish cut yesterday. Analysts at IFR further state that the front month EuroSwiss interest rate futures are almost fully priced for a 50bps cut. In terms of the day ahead, focus this morning will be the manufacturing and services PMI’s for the Euro-area as well as regionally in Germany and France. We are also expecting business and manufacturing confidence in the latter as well as December retail sales out of the UK where consensus is for an energy related decline in the headline (-0.7% mom from 1.7% previously). The Chicago Fed national activity index will be the notable read out of the US but we suspect focus will still be on how much follow through we will get from markets on the back of the ECB action yesterday. In Summary: European shares stay higher, advancing for a 7th day to extend their highest level since Dec. 2007. Currently close to intraday highs, with the food & beverage and autos sectors outperforming and basic resources, oil & gas underperforming. Euro weakens to 11-year low against dollar, heading for a sixth weekly decline before the Greek vote on Sunday. European bond yields fall to records. Crude oil gains after the death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah, with half- brother Salman named as his successor. Euro-area composite PMI data above estimates. German January manufacturing PMI, French services PMI below estimates, French manufacturing PMI above. U.K. retail sales above expectations. The French and German markets are the best-performing larger bourses, U.K. the worst. Commodities gain, with nickel, zinc underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. manufacturing PMI, Chicago Fed index, existing home sales, leading index due later. Market Wrap S&P 500 futures up 0% to 2056.5 Stoxx 600 up 1.4% to 369 US 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.81% German 10Yr yield down 8bps to 0.37% MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.9% to 140.9 Gold spot down 0.6% to $1294.1/oz Euro down 1.15% to $1.1235 Dollar Index up 0.85% to 94.87 Italian 10Yr yield down 10bps to 1.45% Spanish 10Yr yield down 11bps to 1.3% French 10Yr yield down 9bps to 0.53% S&P GSCI Index up 0.7% to 384.4 Brent Futures up 2% to $49.5/bbl, WTI Futures up 1.4% to $47/bbl LME 3m Copper down 1% to $5610.5/MT LME 3m Nickel down 1.8% to $14590/MT Wheat futures down 0.6% to 530.5 USd/bu Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg EUR/USD (-130 pips) underperforms its neighbouring pairs in a continuation of yesterday’s downward trend to reach Sep. 2003 lows in the wake of the ECB QE announcement. In addition European yields continue to tumble lifting T-notes (+19 ticks) in sympathy with the move higher in bund futures (+89 ticks) The death of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah lifts WTI and Brent crude overnight, however gains have been capped as his successor Prince Salman has said he would maintain policies on oil Looking ahead, sees US Manufacturing PMI, Existing Home Sales, Leading Index and earnings from General Electric and McDonalds Treasuries gain led by long end as Europe’s bonds surge after ECB pledge to buy the currency bloc’s sovereigns; German 10Y yield falls to new record low, Italy 10Y yield fell below 1.5% for first time on record. ECB’s asset-purchase program will continue past September 2016 if it hasn’t met its inflation objectives by then, Governing Council member Ignazio Visco said Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said that central bankers around the world have no shortage of tools to address deflation risks and that in Japan policy makers may need to look at fresh options if further stimulus is needed Denmark’s central bank signaled it is ready to step up currency interventions and continue cutting rates to stamp out any lingering speculation it may be unable to defend its euro peg The fight for power in Greece enters its final hours, with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras making a last-ditch appeal to voters as he tries to defy opinion polls showing a victory for his anti-austerity opponent ECB set limits on accessing its bond-buying program that will exclude Greece for at least six months, raising pressure on whichever party wins Jan. 25 elections to heed the demands of official creditors China preliminary PMI from from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at 49.8 in January, exceeding the median estimate of 49.5 in a Bloomberg survey and up from December’s 49.6 U.K. retail sales unexpectedly increased in December led by sales of food, computers and auto fuel as the plunge in oil prices boosted Britons’ spending power Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud ascended to the throne of Saudi Arabia after the death of his half-brother King Abdullah, taking the helm of the biggest Arab economy amid political turmoil in the Middle East and tumbling oil prices Sovereign yields fall, led bu EU periphery with Greece 10Y -42bps, Portugal -22bps, Italy and Spain each lower by ~10bps. Asian, European stocks surge, U.S. equity-index futures steady. Brent and WTI rise; copper and gold fall US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dec., est. 0.48 (prior 0.73) 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Jan preliminary, est. 54 (prior 53.9) 10:00am: Existing Home Sales, Dec., est. 5.08m (prior 4.93m) Existing Home Sales m/m, Dec., est. 3% (prior -6.1%) 10:00am: Leading Index, Dec., est. 0.4% (prior 0.6%) * * * DB's Jim Reid Concludes the overnight recap To use our 2015 analogy, yesterday saw the plates spun very hard and it will be difficult to stand in the way of its impact. Yesterday’s program was at the same time bigger, faster and more explicit than what had been promised before and what the market had come to expect. The ECB announced an expansion of its purchase program so that now the ECB will be buying €60bn of assets a month including the current ABS and covered bond programs and the new purchase program for “euro-denominated investment-grade securities issued by euro area governments and agencies and European institutions”. The program looks set to carry on until the end of September 2016 at least. This alone will expand the ECB balance sheet by about €1.1tr and our European economist’s Mark Wall and Marco Stringa think this will be made up of around €700-800bn of euro government bond purchases. More specifically on the duration of the plan, the statement went on to say that these purchases, “are intended to be carried out until end-September 2016 and will in any case be conducted until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term." This was "whatever it takes" in everything but name. To our eye this implies that if inflation continues to run below target with few signs of it sustainably rebounding back the ECB will continue purchasing beyond next September. While they of course could end it early if inflation picks up it’s interesting to highlight that even after 6 years of on-and-off QE programs in the US, core inflation there has (with only a brief period in 2012) continued to run notably below its 2% target. As our economist’s wrote, “this means the ECB have rotated from an intention to expand the balance sheet by up to EUR 1 trillion to a position of EUR 1 trillion at least, particularly if the TLTRO turns out to be a source of balance sheet expansion.” As we wrote in yesterday's EMR, at present it is hard to see the date at which ECB QE ends so this program could end up exceeding all previous forecasts by a large amount. For more detail on the specifics of the program you can read their note here: http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1891-07D9/99218332/DB_DataFlash_2015-01-.... With the ECB now committed to a large and sustained QE program we continue to believe that this will be a good environment for European equities and European credit whether you like the fundamentals or not or whether you think it makes any difference to the economy longer-term. Indeed if you believe a lack of structural reform, increasing inequality and low fiscal injections are holding back growth then yesterday's announcement hardly changes the long-term picture. Indeed it could even prevent improvements here. We continue to think Oil, the Fed and Greece will cause early year volatility but we continue to expect European assets to out-perform. They aren't going to be buying IG credit (after much speculation over the last few months) but this shouldn't prevent the asset class from benefiting from the liquidity. The immediate price action post the ECB decision was one where we saw further weakness in the euro but clear outperformance in European equity and bond markets. We'll recap these in a little more detail below but Asian risk markets have largely followed suit with a firmer bias overnight. The Nikkei, Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite and the ASX 200 are up +1.00%, +1.35%, +1.78% and +1.51%, respectively. The Euro is hovering at around 1.132 against the Dollar, Gold is easing off a little at just below $1300/oz while the 10yr UST yield is a tad lower from the US close at around 1.858% as we go to print. The positive tone is also driving Asian credit spreads tighter overnight with the Asia and Australian iTraxx indices 4bps and 3bps tighter, respectively. Meanwhile oil markets have rallied some 1.5% overnight possibly on the news that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has died with his half brother succeeding him as King. The HSBC flash manufacturing PMI for China came in sub-50 for the second consecutive month (49.8 v 49.5 expected) but the impending glut of central bank liquidity is perhaps overriding any fundamental concerns for now. On the corporate news front, Hutchison Whampoa has entered into exclusive talks with Telefonica for an indicative cash price of £9.25bn and deferred upside interest payments to a further £1bn. The deal has been reported by the media for sometime but looks like a deal completion is not expected until mid-2016 (Bloomberg). Recapping the European price action yesterday the Stoxx 600 closed +1.66% higher having been relatively subdued in the build up to the announcement. Elsewhere the DAX (+1.32%), CAC (+1.52%), FTSE MIB (+2.44%) and IBEX (+1.70%) all closed stronger. The Stoxx has now risen for six consecutive days and rallied nearly 8% off the levels from two weeks ago. Credit markets also firmed. Crossover closed 11bps tighter and is now 60bps off the wides earlier this month. Meanwhile the Euro dropped to a fresh 11-year low versus the Dollar, finishing 2.1% lower at $1.137 having touched intraday lows of $1.132. Having initially traded weaker in the morning, bonds rallied across the Euro-area. Benchmark 10y Bunds closed nearly 8bps tighter whilst 10y yields in France (-8.7bps), Spain (-12.6bps) and Italy (-14.2bps) struck fresh record lows at 0.617%, 1.404% and 1.549% respectively - although in reality the majority of government bonds are trading at or near record lows now. US risk assets fed off the better tone. Indeed, both the S&P 500 (+1.53%) and Dow (+1.48%) closed firmer with the former now moving back into positive territory for 2015 (+0.21%). This was despite what was generally a mixed set of economic data prints. Jobless claims dropped 10k to 307k but this raised the four-week average to 307k - the highest reading since June last year. However our US colleagues point out that nonfarm payrolls still grew 267k that month suggesting that a relatively elevated reading on the moving average is not necessarily a signal of a slowing labour market. Elsewhere, the FHFA house price index rose to +0.8% mom (from 0.6%) and ahead of expectations of 0.3%. The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index disappointed however (3 vs. 8 expected). Treasuries were volatile. 10y yields are one point hit an intraday high of 1.947% before falling to 1.809% immediately post the announcement. They eventually settled back more or less where they started the day at 1.86%. With much of the focus on ECB, further falls in oil markets went largely unnoticed. Indeed both WTI (-3.08%) and Brent (-1.04%) dropped to $46.31/bbl and $48.52/bbl respectively. With the ECB decision out of the way, attention will now move to Greece this Sunday where we should have an indication of the election results by 10pm GMT. Yesterday’s decision was a boost for Greek assets. Sub-investment grade Sovereigns will be included in the ECB plan although we note these will have to be under a programme. The main caveat centers around the 33% issuer limit which means that the ECB will not be able to purchase Greek bonds before July given the volume of Greek bonds held in the SMP. Recent opinion polls have pointed towards further support for Syriza with the lead widening anywhere from 3% to 4-6% depending on the poll. Perhaps of more interest is what yesterday’s decision would mean for a Syriza outright win in terms of dealing with the Troika and whether or not this makes the negotiation process easier? The Eurogroup meeting next week could well offer some clues into the near term outlook for Greece. 10y Greek yields closed some 50bps tighter yesterday whilst Greek equities (+1.14%) halted two days of previous declines. In terms of the day ahead, focus this morning will be the manufacturing and services PMI’s for the Euro-area as well as regionally in Germany and France. We are also expecting business and manufacturing confidence in the latter as well as December retail sales out of the UK where consensus is for an energy related decline in the headline (-0.7% mom from 1.7% previously). The Chicago Fed national activity index will be the notable read out of the US but we suspect focus will still be on how much follow through we will get from markets on the back of the ECB action yesterday.
Blasts, tear gas, chaos: Bologna protests against banker & nationalist party Clashes occurred in Bologna Saturday after 500 people held a demonstration in the city to protest a lecture by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco. The demonstrators also took the opportunity to... [[ This is a content summary only. Visit http://FinanceArmageddon.blogspot.com or http://www.newsbooze.com or http://www.figanews.com for full links, other content, and more! ]] FREE SILVER ROUNDS sent directly to you when you subscribe to - and refer friends to - the SILVER SNOWBALL (click for free info) http://www.SlayTheBankster.com
Clashes occurred in Bologna Saturday after 500 people held a demonstration in the city to protest a lecture by the Governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco. The demonstrators also took the opportunity to denounce a rally held the city centre by 'Forza Nuova' (New Force far-right political party) MEP Roberto Fiore. COURTESY: RT's RUPTLY video agency, NO RE-UPLOAD, NO REUSE - FOR LICENSING, PLEASE, CONTACT http://ruptly.tv RT LIVE http://rt.com/on-air Subscribe to RT! http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=RussiaToday Like us on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/RTnews Follow us on Twitter http://twitter.com/RT_com Follow us on Instagram http://instagram.com/rt Follow us on Google+ http://plus.google.com/+RT RT (Russia Today) is a global news network broadcasting from Moscow and Washington studios. RT is the first news channel to break the 1 billion YouTube views benchmark.
We, like Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, were bemused this weekend by the communiques from the wisest men in the room at the G-20 meeting. On one side of their mouths they warned of "excessive risk-taking," in markets noting that there were "mounting economic risks" also. On the other hand, stories continue to print of US equity strength implying optimism over global growth - despite the ongoing collapse in consensus GDP expectations. However, away from this hope and fear, it was the almost coordinated responses of the PBOC (Chinese Finmin Lou Jiwei signaling not to get carried away with stimulus expectations), ECB (Visco saying may not need additional QE step since EUR had dropped 'enough'), and finally the BOJ (Iwata saying Abenomics misunderstood, USDJPY 90-100 'fair); all dashing market expectations of a smooth hand over from a feckless Fed to a free-printing rest-of-the-world. Stocks (and carry) responded by selling off. As Bloomberg's Richard Breslow notes, I was amused/bemused this weekend when I saw two stories literally next to each other on my newsfeed. FEARS - The first said “global finance chiefs said to warn of mounting economic risks.” HOPE - The next story, same dateline: U.S. stocks increase for week over optimism on economic growth. Unfortunately, that’s the sort of talking out of both sides of their mouths that’s done whenever it suits them, so we need to be careful of the shelf life of these commentaries, who is speaking in what venue and what is the sound bite meant to satisfy. G-20, we talked at end of last wk on how the G-20 mtg was an opportunity to do something special, but what came out of it was the French and Germans telling everyone to chill, while the Italians said the TLTRO takeup means nothing until we see what happens in December. The overall conclusion was that the ministers agree on many goals, with little agreement on the means to those ends. DASHED EXPECTATIONS - Probably the most interesting and actionable of the economic comments came from the Chinese Finmin Lou Jiwei, who signaled not to get too carried away with the stimulus China implemented last wk, this isn’t the start of a major ongoing program. That comment is what really got equity mkts to swoon over the weekend and people to be a little bit dour. * * * Add to that ECB's warning not to expect QE... (as Bloomberg reports) The European Central Bank may not need to add stimulus measures after steps in the past three months pushed down the euro, said Governing Council member Ignazio Visco “Inflation expectations have to be back where they were,” Visco said in an interview in Cairns, Australia, where he is attending a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs. “This doesn’t mean that there will be a next step. We have been bold enough to reduce interest rates to a level that was unexpected to the market.” The single currency has dropped about 6 percent since early June, when the ECB introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves and presented a four-year lending program to fuel credit. Policy makers reduced borrowing costs further earlier this month and committed to buying asset-backed securities and covered bonds to boost the ECB’s balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion). The extent of the exchange rate’s fall is “more or less, given the moves that were done between June and September, the right response,” said Visco, who also heads Italy’s central bank. The ECB isn’t targeting any exchange-rate level, he said. * * * And The BOJ's warning not to expect more QQE... *FORMER BOJ DEPUTY GOVERNOR KAZUMASA IWATA SPEAKS IN INTERVIEW *DAMAGE TO JAPAN FROM WEAK YEN MAY OUTWEIGH MERITS: IWATA *WEAK YEN PUTS JAPAN AT RECESSION RISK: EX-BOJ'S IWATA *DOLLAR/YEN AT 90-100 REFLECTS JAPAN FUNDAMENTALS: IWATA *CURRENT YEN WEAKNESS SLIGHTLY EXCESSIVE: IWATA Are the world's central banks re-co-ordinating on a tightening path as various bodies from the IMF to BIS warn that they have gone too far? * * * And the markert reacted with risk-off despite the G-20's best efforts to happy-talk the future.
While some were wondering if last night's sudden, commodity-liquidation driven selloff would last, most were not, expecting that the perfectly predictable levitation in the USDJPY around a round "tractor beam" number would provide a floor under the market .Sure enough, starting around midnight eastern, the USDJPY BTFDers emerged, oblivious to comments from former BOJ deputy governor Iwata who late last night said the obvious, and what we have been saying since January 2013, namely that a weak yen puts Japan at recession risk, and that a USDJPY in the 90-100 range reflects Japan fundamentals. And, as expected, the 109 level is where the algos have hone in today as a strange FX attractor, which also means that ES has reverse sharper overnight losses and was down just 7 points at last check even as the poundage in the commodity sector continues over rising fears of a sharp Chinese slowdown driven by its imploding housing sector (most recently observed here) without an offsetting stimulus program, following several comments by high-ranked Chinese individuals who poured cold water on any hopes of an imminent Chinese mega-QE or even modest rate cut. And speaking of pouring cold water on easing plans, the ECB did just that, when several of its governing council members, but most notably Ignazio Visco, said that the ECB may not do further easing after all because it had managed to punk the market once again, and the EURUSD is low enough to where the whole point of QE is now moot. In other words, the market once again discounted action by the ECB... which now will never come. It remains to be seen if the central bank FX traders (which as we now know are openly trading via the CME) will allow the EURUSD to return to its pre "discounting" levels as the ECB returns to full "jawbone Off" mode. European, Asian stocks fall with oil, metals after China declines to make policy changes in response to slower growth. Miners among largest underperformers, iron ore prices lower. U.S. equity index futures decline. Yields on 10-year U.K. gilts, German bunds fall. Tesco leads FTSE 100 declines after saying it overstated 1H profit by GBP250m. Australian stocks (-1.3%) erased all YTD gains and fell over 1.5% in their sharpest decline since mid-March as the USD strength and subsequent iron ore and gold weakness has weighed heavily on Australian mining stocks. Over in China, the renewed growth concerns sent the Hang Seng Index (-1.4%) lower, hitting its lowest level since late July at the midday break. Asian stocks fall with Shanghai Composite underperforming and Sensex, NZX outperforming. MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.8% to 143.35. Nikkei 225 down 0.7%, Hang Seng down 1.4%, Kospi down 0.7%, Shanghai Composite down 1.7%, ASX down 1.3%, Sensex up 0.2%. 0 out of 10 sectors rise with telecom, infotech, materials underperforming. European equity markets trade softer, with the FTSE-100 underperforming as Tesco shares slumped as much as 12% after finding accounting irregularities on Friday that have trimmed their H1 profit guidance by GBP 250mln. As such, the UK’s largest retailer has erased the entirety of the gains seen over the past eleven years. Elsewhere, mining stocks fell sharply from the open, as the slide in commodities prices overnight hit profit margin expectations. Looking ahead, US stock futures are indicating a lower open, with the e-Mini S&P below the 2,000 mark as attention shifts to Alibaba’s second day of trading and preliminary sales figures for Apple’s newest iPhone 6 and 6+. 6 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; basic resources, retail underperform; utilities, insurance outperform. 32.5% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 64.2% decline. Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%, FTSE 100 -0.5%, CAC 40 +0%, DAX -0.2%, Looking at the day ahead and beyond, US existing home sales and eurp-area consumer confidence for September are the main release for today although we’ll also pay some attention to any soundbites from the Fed’s Dudley at a Bloomberg summit today. Draghi will also speak before the EU parliament in Brussels at 3pm local time. Then we have PMI Tuesday with the release of the Markit/HSBC PMI manufacturing September readings for China and the Eurozone. The former should provide us with further clues in light of the recent downward momentum in China data flow. On Wednesday, we’ll get US new home sales, Italian consumer confidence, and the German IFO report. The US durable goods data in August will be a highlight on Thursday on top of the usual weekly jobless claims report. We will wrap up the week on Friday with the third revision to the Q2 US GDP data where consensus is looking for a small upward revision. On top of all, this week also sees a handful of Fedspeak (Kocherlakota, Bullard, Powell, George, Mester, Evans and Lockhart) right on the heels of the FOMC meeting last week so we should get more Fed-related news flow in the coming days. Market Wrap S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 1994.9 Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 347.6 US 10Yr yield down 1bps to 2.57% German 10Yr yield down 1bps to 1.04% MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.7% to 143.4 Gold spot down 0% to $1215.3/oz Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg: Commodities slide as markets nervously look ahead to tomorrow’s preliminary Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI after the country’s finance minister warned growth risks remain to the downside EUR regains some poise after ECB’s Visco, Noyer and Coeure downplayed the prospect of QE at the weekend’s G20 summit in Cairns, Australia Focus shifts to an appearance from ECB’s Draghi at EU Parliament today at 1400BST/0800CDT Treasury yields drop overnight as investors prepare for $106b in U.S. auctions this week; 2Y closed Friday at highest yield since May 2011, 30Y at its lowest level in a week after FOMC meeting offered a dovish statement and more hawkish “dots.” Shares fell around the world and commodities tumbled to a five-year low amid speculation China will accept slower growth after Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said there won’t be major changes in policy in response to individual economic indicators U.S. dollar has climbed to its highest level since 2010 against a broad range of currencies, transforming losses into gains for most foreign holders, who own $6t Treasuries Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s initial public offering became the biggest ever at $25b, after bankers exercised an option to boost the deal size by 15% on strong demand, a person familiar with the matter said Hedge funds extended this year’s longest exit from bullish gold bets as slumping prices and investor outflows since June erased $7.16b from the value of exchange-traded funds backed by the metal G-20 finance chiefs and central bankers said low interest rates could lead to a potential increase in financial-market risk, as major economies rely on monetary stimulus to bolster uneven growth The World Bank warned that the economic costs of the Ebola outbreak in West Africa will escalate to “catastrophic” proportions if the virus spreads Sovereign yields mostly lower except for Greece and Spain. Asian, European stocks drop, U.S. equity-index futures fall. WTI crude, gold and copper fall US Economic Data 8:30am: Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Aug., est. 33 (prior 0.39) 10:00am: Existing Home Sales, Aug., est. 5.20m (prior 5.15m) Existing Home Sales m/m, Aug., est. 1% (prior 2.4%) Central Banks 9:00am: ECB’s Draghi speaks in Brussels 10:05am: Fed’s Dudley speaks in New York 7:30pm: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks in Marquette, Mich. ASIA Australian stocks (-1.3%) erased all YTD gains and fell over 1.5% in their sharpest decline since mid-March as the USD strength and subsequent iron ore and gold weakness has weighed heavily on Australian mining stocks. Over in China, the renewed growth concerns sent the Hang Seng Index (-1.4%) lower, hitting its lowest level since late July at the midday break. FIXED INCOME Bund futures gapped higher at the open, taking the lead from T-notes overnight, who rallied alongside softer Asia-Pacific stocks and lower US equity futures. The French/German spread has tightened by approx. 1.5bps (4.5% equivalent) after the French sovereign rating was affirmed at Aa1 at Moody’s on Friday, despite speculation that the government could suffer a downgrade. The Spanish bond market is the worst performer of the day as reports of domestic accounts selling lift Spain’s 10yr yields towards 2.25%. EQUITIES European equity markets trade softer, with the FTSE-100 underperforming as Tesco shares slumped as much as 12% after finding accounting irregularities on Friday that have trimmed their H1 profit guidance by GBP 250mln. As such, the UK’s largest retailer has erased the entirety of the gains seen over the past eleven years. Elsewhere, mining stocks fell sharply from the open, as the slide in commodities prices overnight hit profit margin expectations. Looking ahead, US stock futures are indicating a lower open, with the e-Mini S&P below the 2,000 mark as attention shifts to Alibaba’s second day of trading and preliminary sales figures for Apple’s newest iPhone 6 and 6+. FX AUD and CAD underperform as the downside in commodities strikes currencies, however NZD slightly outperforms as NZ PM Key has secured the first government parliamentary majority in just under two decades at the weekend’s elections. His pro-fiscal prudence stance and history of infrastructure rejuvenation has buoyed the currency today, with NZD/AUD now targeting the 100DMA at 0.9158. Elsewhere, EUR trades stronger against the USD as various ECB members including Noyer, Visco and Coeure highlighted the weak efficacy of outright QE at the weekend’s G20 conference. COMMODITIES Commodities fell from the open, as renewed issues surrounding Chinese growth emerged after the Chinese finance minister Lou highlighted the downside risks to Chinese growth ahead of tomorrow’s preliminary HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Exp. 50.0, prev. 50.2). This, allied with renewed focus on Fed tightening has weighed on metals across the globe, with Dalian iron ore futures printing contract lows for the second consecutive session and hitting five-year generic contract lows as silver slides to 2010’s levels. Gold still remains just above the YTD lows but has traded within USD 15.00 of the key USD 1,200/oz support, last convincingly broken in late December. * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight Recap After a couple of weeks of focusing a lot of attention on the FOMC and the Scotland vote, markets will no doubt move on and start finding something else to think about this week. The themes bubbling under the surface at the moment are that the low TLTRO take up might encourage full European QE, that global inflation is again edging lower and that China's economy looks to be slowing. The G20 meeting in Australia was the main source of weekend headlines. The world’s finance ministers and central bankers once again reaffirmed their commitments on global economic growth with investment seemingly a key theme this time. Indeed the leaders agreed that investment is critical to boost demand and collectively have agreed to a Global infrastructure initiative to increase quality investments. In implementing this initiative, leaders have reaffirmed support to quality public and private investments which will include the optimal use of government’s balance sheet while maintaining appropriate risk controls. They hope this will eventually facilitate the normalisation of monetary policy in advanced economies. The communiqué suggested that they were mindful of the potential build up of financial market risk given the environment of low interest rates and low asset price vol. One has to be guarded when reading such statements as the practice of implementing such initiatives has proved to be much more challenging than the promise of them since the GFC. In synch with this infrastructure investment theme, the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was on a Fox programme on Sunday urging for a major plan to boost the US economic growth by more infrastructure investments. He is of the view that government borrowing at these Treasury yields now for the renewal of ageing infrastructure would be beneficial in the long run. In terms of markets, Dollar strength has been one of the key themes over the last few months although we seem to be taking a breather overnight. Indeed that and a rebound in JPY seems to be adding some negative pressure on Japanese equities overnight. The Nikkei is around 0.8% lower as we type although relatively speaking still outperforming a very weak session in China. The Shanghai Composite, HSCEI and Hang Seng indices are -1.4%, -1.8% and -1.3% lower. In reality we’ve seen a run of very weak Chinese economic data of late which for August included a meaningful drop in the growth rate of investment and industrial production (which hit a post-2008 low) and a further drop in property sales (which contracted at a rate of 9% YoY). In the same month we learnt that China’s imports contracted -2.4% YoY leaving the 6m moving average rate at its lowest level since the GFC and subsequent global slowdown. Chinese iron ore import prices have also fallen to lows also not seen since 2009 on the back of this. Clearly one has to be careful not to call a trend on the back of a month’s worth of data (especially given that this is China), however two points make these recent developments worrying. First the fact data has been so bad across a range of statistics (including power consumption) suggests a very real slowdown in growth. Second the Chinese economy is breaking out of a pattern it has followed each year for the past few, with a weak start to the year prompting government growth policies which in turn helped growth to pick up. This year the government once again announced policies to rev up growth after a slow start to the year however their positive effects appear to have been more short lived (lasting just a month or so) and it looks like major stimulus is not on the cards right now. At the G20 meeting China’s finance minister Lou Jiwei said that the country faces downward pressure and reiterated that there will not be any major policy change in response to individual economic indicators. There was news that Nanjing has lifted home purchase restriction over the weekend in a latest effort by local governments to stimulate housing demand. So China could be a story to watch in the coming weeks. Back to markets, Asian IG spreads are 1-2bp tighter across key benchmarks which pretty much took the lead from the fairly firm US session on Friday. Indeed the CDX IG was nearly 1bp tighter which was a relative outperformer against a softer finish to the week in equities. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ were both modestly lower on the day which also saw further gains in Treasuries. The 10yr UST yield finished Friday 4bps lower and is another 1-2bp lower in Asia overnight at 2.56%. Looking at the day ahead and beyond, US existing home sales and eurp-area consumer confidence for September are the main release for today although we’ll also pay some attention to any soundbites from the Fed’s Dudley at a Bloomberg summit today. Draghi will also speak before the EU parliament in Brussels at 3pm local time. Then we have PMI Tuesday with the release of the Markit/HSBC PMI manufacturing September readings for China and the Eurozone. The former should provide us with further clues in light of the recent downward momentum in China data flow. On Wednesday, we’ll get US new home sales, Italian consumer confidence, and the German IFO report. The US durable goods data in August will be a highlight on Thursday on top of the usual weekly jobless claims report. We will wrap up the week on Friday with the third revision to the Q2 US GDP data where consensus is looking for a small upward revision. On top of all, this week also sees a handful of Fedspeak (Kocherlakota, Bullard, Powell, George, Mester, Evans and Lockhart) right on the heels of the FOMC meeting last week so we should get more Fed-related news flow in the coming days.
USDJPY has been on a tear in recent weeks. Since China unleashed QE-lite, JPY and CNY have greatly diverged with USDJPY breaking above 109 and pushing six-year highs. This recent 'relative strength' is the most extreme overbought for the currency pair since early 2001 - which saw USDJPY plunge 30% in the following six months. The tick-for-tick rise in Japan's stock market also broke a 9-month almost-perfect analog with the last time the nation raised its consumption tax. Perhaps even more worrying in the world of FX trading, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco told the G-20 that it may not need to add stimulus measures after steps in the past three months pushed down the euro noting that "there may not be a next step," since he explains, the ECB was "bold enough to reduce interest rates to a level that was unexpected to the market." The extent of the exchange rate’s fall is "more or less, given the moves that were done between June and September, the right response," said Visco, who also heads Italy’s central bank, but added very Japan-like, "the ECB isn’t targeting any exchange-rate level." That is not what the EUR shorts will want to hear. USDJPY is at six-year highs with RSI at its most extreme overbought since 2001 - which saw a 30% decline in the next 6 months. 9 months of almost perfect correlation with the period 17 years ago when Japan last raised its consumption tax has diverged dramatically in thge last few days as USDJPY exploded higher... Its different this time... for now. * * * Then there is the EUR, which it appears was played by the ECB once again... (as Bloomberg reports) The European Central Bank may not need to add stimulus measures after steps in the past three months pushed down the euro, said Governing Council member Ignazio Visco “Inflation expectations have to be back where they were,” Visco said in an interview in Cairns, Australia, where he is attending a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs. “This doesn’t mean that there will be a next step. We have been bold enough to reduce interest rates to a level that was unexpected to the market.” The single currency has dropped about 6 percent since early June, when the ECB introduced a negative interest rate on excess reserves and presented a four-year lending program to fuel credit. Policy makers reduced borrowing costs further earlier this month and committed to buying asset-backed securities and covered bonds to boost the ECB’s balance sheet by as much as 1 trillion euros ($1.3 trillion). The extent of the exchange rate’s fall is “more or less, given the moves that were done between June and September, the right response,” said Visco, who also heads Italy’s central bank. The ECB isn’t targeting any exchange-rate level, he said. * * * Of course, when have these markets ever reacted in negative response to the fact that what was promised by a central banker (drove massive momentum shifts) does not occur...
CERNOBBIO Italy (Reuters) - The European Central Bank should be ready to take further measures to guarantee monetary stability if needed, Ignazio Visco, the governor of the Bank of Italy and a member...
ROME (Reuters) - The risk of excessively low price expectations in the euro zone must be tackled decisively, European Central Bank Governing Council Member Ignazio Visco said on Tuesday.
Following the financial crisis of 2008, many voices used "capitalism" as if it were a dirty word. We can understand why. The short-term, purely self-interested thinking that contributed to the crisis and subsequent recession has also contributed to a long list of human tragedies: Thousands of workers killed when unregulated factories collapse; a growing income inequality where one billion people barely survive on less than $1 a day; and dangerous climate changes pressuring the supply of basic commodities. Some blame "capitalism" for these problems and, by extension, condemn capitalism as inherently unethical. At the World Economic Forum in Davos this year, a group of business, NGO and government leaders discussed this question in a panel titled "Ethical Capitalism - Worth a Try?": I was fortunate to serve on the panel, which was moderated by Zanny Minton Beddoes, Economics Editor of The Economist, alongside Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, Chairman of the Board, Nestlé SA; Sir Martin Sorrell, CEO, WPP Plc; Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy; Jasmine Whitbread, CEO, Save the Children International; and Muhammad Yunus, Chairman, Yunus Centre and a recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. From my perspective, this notion that "capitalism" is inherently unethical is not only philosophically wrong but factually refutable. The problem is not with capitalism; the problem is with those capitalists who focus on the present without caring for the future. Consider the extraordinary human achievement of the past two centuries generated by capitalism. As John Mackey reminds us in his book, Conscious Capitalism, 85 percent of the globe lived in extreme poverty just 200 years ago. Today, that number is 16 percent. Life expectancy has more than doubled, individual freedom has bloomed across the globe, and extraordinary innovation spurred by capitalism has changed daily life immeasurably. No other economic system yet devised has the power to create such positive change. The heart of the issue is this: Capitalism is only as good as capitalists. For any system to be sustained -- political, governmental, social or economic -- its leaders must be rooted in ethics. So what does this mean? Ethical Capitalism has at least two essential ingredients: A focus on creating long-term economic and social value, and a commitment by business to act as stewards of the full spectrum of its constituencies -- customers, employees, suppliers, investors and society. Ethical Capitalism seeks to build deep, trust-based relationships in the service of society as well as the bottom line. In other words, it is a business model with a "higher purpose." The benefits are real and long-lasting. Companies committed to this higher purpose attract more customers, minimize operating costs through energy efficiency and reduced waste, improve employee retention rates and benefit from an experienced workforce that has a stake in the company's long-term success. Ethical Capitalism is not some idealistic dream; it is a powerful engine that drives long-term value creation. We are one example. At Henry Schein, our commitment to balancing the needs of our five constituents -- Team Schein Members, our customers, our suppliers, our investors, and society -- has been central to our success. Our market valuation, now at $10 billion, has grown at a 23 percent rate compounded annually since the company went public in 1995. We are equally proud of our contributions to society, especially our efforts to enhance access to health care for the underserved through Henry Schein Cares, our global corporate social responsibility program. For example, since 2003, we have helped almost 4.5 million children receive free oral health care as a partner in the Give Kids a Smile program of the American Dental Association. We view being named as a FORTUNE "World's Most Admired" Company each of the past 12 consecutive years as powerful proof that a company can truly "do well by doing good." Of course, we are not alone. Recent studies by Harvard Business School, Babson College and others have demonstrated that firms that prioritize stakeholder engagement and have a long-term orientation significantly outperform their counterparts in the stock market over time. Capitalism is far from perfect; no system is. But capitalism is the best system we have come up with so far, and when combined with a real commitment to ethics, offers society the best opportunity to create wealth and lift people out of poverty. As business leaders, we must do more. Our task, in concert with government, academia, NGOs and civic society, is to work together to underpin the capitalist model with a strong ethical base. We must infuse the public dialogue with the understanding that self-interest and the interest of society are integrally intertwined. It is as simple as this: The success of businesses depends on a healthy, thriving society. This year's World Economic Forum began with a message from Pope Francis, delivered by Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana. The Pope implored the world's business leaders "to ensure that humanity is served by wealth and not ruled by it." That is the essence of Ethical Capitalism. We have no choice but to give it a try. Stanley M. Bergman is Chairman of the Board and CEO of Henry Schein, Inc., a Fortune 500® company and the world's largest provider of health care products and services to office-based dental, animal health and medical practitioners, with nearly 17,000 employees and operations or affiliates in 25 countries. www.henryschein.com.
The ECB's Ignazio Visco revives the discussion of negative deposit rates after Ewald Nowotny sought to dismiss the notion as largely out of the realm of near-term possibilities earlier this month. Visco tells CNBC that the ECB is "technically prepared" to institute the policy and goes so far as to say that in his opinion, "the economy is now capable of taking it on board." In the wake of the ECB's most recent policy meeting, Mario Draghi said he has an "open mind" to the policy, a statement which sent the euro (FXE) tumbling.
The ECB's Ignazio Visco revives the discussion of negative deposit rates after Ewald Nowotny sought to dismiss the notion as largely out of the realm of near-term possibilities earlier this month. Visco tells CNBC that the ECB is "technically prepared" to institute the policy and goes so far as to say that in his opinion, "the economy is now capable of taking it on board." In the wake of the ECB's most recent policy meeting, Mario Draghi said he has an "open mind" to the policy, a statement which sent the euro (FXE) tumbling. Post your comment!
Несколько дней назад попалась мне на глаза заметка из «Ведомостей»:«Российским медикам необходимо отвоевать часть рынка у зарубежных коллег, колдунов и экстрасенсов, заявил главный кардиолог Москвы Юрий Бузиашвили. По его данным, на лечение за границей население тратит около $17 млрд, а на услуги экстрасенсов и колдунов уходит более $30 млрд. Если бы удалось отвоевать хотя бы 10% от общей суммы таких затрат, российская медицина могла бы подняться, считает Бузиашвили.Недавно «Левада-центр» сообщил, что с 2000 г. доля россиян, которые хотя бы раз обращались к услугам гадалок, ворожей, магов и народных целителей для снятия сглаза, порчи и других целей, остается неизменной — 20%. Из них доля тех, кто считает, что хотя бы иногда такие специалисты действительно помогли им решить проблемы, выросла с 41 до 47%».Ну, как вам наша одухотворенность? Почувствовали? 30 миллиардов долларов в год на экстрасенсов! Пресса пишет, что до 70% всех женщин России хотя бы однажды обращались к экстрасенсам!Я часто слышу, что книги стоят дорого, недопустимо дорого, что у людей нет денег на жизнь и сейчас многим не до книг вовсе. Всякий раз удивляюсь таким словам. Если у людей есть $30 млрд на «паранормальное лечение» и прочий шаманизм оккультистов и шарлатанов, то тут скорее нужно говорить об отсутствии чего угодно, но только не денег.Мы все болеем и вынуждены лечиться, оплачивать дорогостоящие операции, покупать иногда очень дорогие лекарства. А знаете, сколько россияне тратят на лекарства? Оборот российского коммерческого рынка лекарств в прошедшем году вырос по сравнению с предыдущим годом на 13,6% и составил 405,1 млрд рублей ($13 млрд).Посмотрим, на что еще мы тратим свои миллиарды. В 2011 г. оборот рынка туристических услуг России вырос на 7,9% и достиг 183 млрд руб ($5,9 млрд). Но это только оборот турбизнеса, а есть еще наши расходы во время поездок. В 2011 г. 40 миллионов жителей России отдыхали за границей (бизнес-поездки составляют лишь 4% от общего числа поездок), и только в европейских странах мы потратили около $24 млрд. А сколько оставляем в Турции с Египтом?А сколько мы тратим на мобильную связь? Давайте трезво оценим — часто на пустые разговоры ни о чем. Оборот МТС — $12,32 млрд. Смело умножаем на три (три оператора примерно равные) и получаем $32 млрд.Россияне все больше пьют дорогих импортных алкогольных напитков. Каждая десятая бутылка крепкого алкоголя, покупаемая в России, — иностранного происхождения. Рост объема поставок в 2012 г. составил 25,78% против 8,52% годом ранее. Поставки виски в 2012 г. выросли на 17,7%, до 1,5 млн дал (1 дал = 10 литров) за семь месяцев. По итогам 2011 г. прирост составил 66,02%. Импорт рома, в прошлом году выросший на 56,93%, в этом году практически не растет (лишь на 4,64%, до 233,5 тыс. дал в январе-июле).15 млн литров виски за семь месяцев! И всего 2 млн 335 тысяч литров рома. Непорядок. Догоним своим пивком и водочкой.В 2011 г. в России было продано свыше 10 млрд литров пива. Если считать в среднем по 55 рублей за литр, то оборот отрасли будет около 550 млрд рублей ($17,7 млрд).За год в России производится 120 млн дал спиртных напитков крепче 25 градусов, что, переводя на понятные всем поллитровки, соответствует 2,4 млрд бутылок крепких напитков.Cтрана богатеет на глазах. Всюду прирост. Читаешь — и сердце ликует: десятки и сотни миллиардов рублей, десятки миллиардов долларов! Виски с ромом рекой текут и в пивные да водочные моря впадают. Во всем прирост: 24% в плюсе, 48%, 72%!!! Все выше и выше. Как так — денег нет? Есть!А теперь давайте посмотрим, сколько мы тратим на книги. Тут словно про другую страну читаешь: книжный рынок России сократился на 9,53% к итогам 2011 г., и по оценкам экспертов оценивается примерно в 82 млрд рублей ($2,54 млрд).Ежегодные темпы динамики книжного рынка России в денежном ($) и натуральном выражении. % Источник: аналитика «КИ»Внимание! Не православный, а весь книжный рынок России меньше десятой части того, что мы отдаем экстрасенсам. Мы тратим в пять раз больше на лекарства и в шесть раз больше на пиво, нежели на учебники, справочники, прикладные и детские книги, художественную литературу.Какой дивный рост потребления сигарет — 201 млрд штук в 1985 г., 413,8 млрд в 2006 г., 628,2 млрд в 2009 г. Прирост в три раза!А что с книжками?В 1985 г. выходило около 2 млрд книг в год, а в прошлом выпустили около 500 млн книг (включая маленькие брошюры, рефераты, диссертации и пр.). Падение в четыре раза. Денег нет?Почти в пять раз больше мы потребляем бутылок, чем книжек. Причем читают далеко не все книги, а вот больших запасов водки в домах почти не встретишь. Сколько выпускают — столько и потребляют, лишнее в библиотеку не несут.Из 40 самых дорогих брендов России 8 — алкогольные. Из 200 самых богатых частных компаний только 2 издательства, да и они в самом конце списка. Впрочем, эти данные трехлетней давности, вполне допускаю, что вылетели уже издатели из рейтинга.О теле мы заботимся, а о душе, о своем образовании и самообразовании? Что же с нами происходит? Почему книг мы производим и продаем все меньше, а на водку, пиво, сигареты, развлечения тратим все больше? Согласитесь, странный портрет современного россиянина: на фоне огромного портрета любимой ясновидящей сидит на бочке с пивом человек. В карманах денег полно, турпутевка в Египет из пиджака торчит, в зубах сразу десяток сигарет дымятся, а в руках он держит пять бутылок водки и одну брошюрку. Тонюсенькую. Да, еще у него лицо ну очень духовное. Он же не такой, как безбожник-француз или еретик-итальянец. Он же православный (напоминаю, что более 80% россиян считают себя православными). Но только что он знает о Православии, если миллиарды тратит на походы к шаманам да шарлатанам?А знаете, сколько издается православных книг? По моим оценкам, оборот рынка православной литературы не превышает 2 млрд рублей (никто не оценивал его объемов, но с уверенностью можно сказать, что сейчас он находится между 1,3 и 2 млрд рублей), т.е. от 45 до 65 млн долларов, что соответствует 2% от светского. (Интересно, что многие знатоки наших церковных реалий говорят, что примерно такой же процент составляют т.н. «воцерковленные» православные (очень глупый термин, но для социологической оценки подходит)).Возгордимся, возлюбленные: рынок православной книги равен 0,2% от рынка услуг экстрасенсов и колдунов. Катастрофа?Россия действительно тянется к духовному. Мы и правда меньше думаем о материальном мире и больше уделяем внимания миру духовному. По крайней мере, больше говорим о нем. И даже эти $30 млрд потрачены потому, что народ убежден — «все болезни в основе своей имеют духовную причину». Глупость, невежество, незнание основ нашей веры, своей веры, с которой себя ассоциируют, отождествляют. Это не их вина, а наша, братья и сестры. Именно мы, православные христиане, ничего не рассказали нашему виртуальному обывателю о христианской вере. Это мы, вместо того, чтобы распространять христианскую литературу, делаем все, чтобы ее стало меньше, создаем трудности и преграды издателям, воспринимаем их исключительно бизнесменами, наживающимся на Церкви.Почаще вспоминайте про 0,2%. Эти крохи делят между собой 1300 издательств, выпускающих сейчас православные книги. Мы — карлики для светского книжного мира. Хотя могли бы быть ведущими издателями в России. Если 80% населения считает себя православными, то почему наш сегмент равен 2%? Если всего в России 3 тысячи книжных магазинов, а у нас 20 тысяч приходов, то почему мы с трудом продаем 10-тысячный тираж? Если в кафедральном соборе областного центра в лавке не более 50 наименований, то почему издателю без всяких объяснений причин отказывают в том, чтобы просто выставить книги на реализацию?Что делать? Ответ прост.Первое. Если мы хотим построить дом, то нужно исследовать почву, на которой он будет стоять. Если хотим вылечить человека, то прежде нужно правильно поставить диагноз. Если хотим чему-либо научить, то первым делом следует определить начальный уровень развития.Необходимо для начала исследовать рынок православной литературы. Светский книгоиздательский мир каждый год публикует подробные отчеты о состоянии дел в отрасли. Надо последовать примеру.Второе. Нельзя построить дом без плана. Но его нет. Хотя подробный и детальный список задач был поставлен Святейшим Патриархом Кириллом еще три года назад. Если бы за эти три года удалось реализовать хотя бы 15% того, о чем говорил Патриарх, то мы, православные издатели, уже вздохнули бы с облегчением. Нужна радикальная реформа сложившейся системы. Церковь должна помогать православному издателю, как он помогает Церкви, проповедуя Евангелие всем народам, рассказывая о нашей вере, о наших святынях и святых.Конечно, издателям могли бы помочь и богатые люди. Ведь есть множество людей, которые покупают иконы и утварь для храмов, но почти нет людей, которые покупают и дарят храму книги. Почему-то считается, что иконописец, продающий икону за многие тысячи рублей, или золотошвейная мастерская, изготавливающая облачение за многие десятки тысяч, — это не бизнес, а вот православный издатель без кола и двора — бизнесмен. (Все православные издатели, даже те, кто десятки лет издают книги, арендуют помещения у храмов да по подвалам сидят. Нет ни одного, кто купил бы или построил дом).Третье. Нужно решительно поменять отношение к издателям. У нас есть православные электронные и печатные СМИ. Некоторые журналы имеют рубрики «Книжная полка» и рассказывают читателям о книжных новинках. Особо хочу поблагодарить журнал «Фома», который в каждом номере публикует рецензии на книги. Но как часто вы встречаете интервью с издателями? Есть замечательная телепередача «Православная энциклопедия». Кого там только не было: православные писатели, православные искусствоведы, десятки иконописцев и архитекторов. Были даже православные артисты, но — поправьте меня, если я не прав, — никогда в студию не приглашали издателей православной литературы. Почему? Неужели для нашей Церкви больше приносят пользы православные артисты, чем издатели? Несколько лет назад я обращался на телеканал «Спас» с предложением сделать передачу, посвященную отрасли. Ответ был прост: вы, издатели, люди богатые, дайте денег, и будет вам передача. При этом в студию приглашают людей, написавших одну книгу. Мнение даже начинающего автора почему-то интересно больше, чем мнение издателя, десятки лет эти книги выпускающего.Почему так поступают светские СМИ, понять еще как-то можно, но почему православные живут по закону «гоним рейтинг»? Почему проблемы православных книг для детей и подростков известный церковный журнал обходит стороной, но активно освещает хулиганскую деятельность известного «православного активиста»? Неужели, чтобы привлечь внимание православных СМИ, издателю необходимо не книги делать или проблемы отрасли обсуждать, а обливать кого-нибудь мочой или стоять на улице с дурацким плакатом? Еще раз: понятно, почему так поступают некоторые светские СМИ. Но в чем тогда наше отличие? Или давайте тогда прямо признаем, что желтая пресса есть и у нас.Труд православного издателя — это апостольское служение. Мы проповедуем народу, только делаем это не своими словами, а размножая и разнося в дальние уголки мира Слово Божие и слова святых. Какой была бы наша вера без книг? Представьте наш современный православный мир без книг святителей Иоанна Златоуста или Игнатия (Брянчанинова), святых оптинских старцев или житий новомучеников. Хотели бы вы жить в таком мире? Хотели бы быть чадом Церкви, в которой Евангелие не читают, а только пересказывают по памяти. А ведь у нас уже есть храмы, в которых нет Евангелия в церковной лавке, зато много китайских сувениров и польских ангелков. Разве это правильно, что издатель просит архиерея взять на реализацию православные книги, а ему ставят условие — постройте магазин, подарите его епархии, и тогда сможете выставить в нем Евангелие? Как такое возможно? Да и построили бы, будь оборот как у оккультистов! Да что там оккультистов. Эпиграфом к статье стала цитата из учебника, напоминающая начало известной юмористической передачи «Comedy Club» («Мы живем в самой прекрасной стране на свете, и все остальные страны нам завидуют»). Совокупный оборот компании «Comedy Club Production» в 2010 г. составил $136 млн (почти в три раза больше православного сегмента книжного рынка России).Помните, что православный рынок равен 0,2% наших расходов на экстрасенсов?В этой статье 14727 знака.0,2% — это 29 знаков.В моем имени 23 знака.Гупало Георгий Михайлович.Мы, православные, пока только представились России.PS.Знаете, что самое отвратительное? Эта статья ничего не даст. Наши власти (в том числе церковные) давно научились не реагировать на любую критику. Могут только во враги записать и пакость автору сделать. Часть народа усмотрит лишь корыстный интерес автора-издателя, не заметив сути проблемы. А большей части народа все пофиг. Проблемы книжной отрасли даже православных волнуют не более затруднений учета количества выхухоли в нашей стране, «в самой прекрасной стране на свете», в которой стали более лучше одеваться.А одна книжка у нас уже давно есть.Православный нанофильтр очень тонкий. Очистить страну от экстрасенсов мы не сможем.www.pravmir.ruГеоргий Гупало