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Industrial Bank China
16 июня 2014, 17:32

Китай: центральный банк снизил резервные требования к коммерческим банкам

Центральный банк Китая объявил о снижении процента обязательных отчислений в резервный фонд на 0,5% для коммерческих банков Industrial Bank, China Minsheng Banking и Bank of Ningbo в рамках поддержки малого бизнеса и экономического роста страны. Стоит отметить, что к данной мере Народный банк Китая прибегает уже второй раз, начиная с 25 апреля 2014 года.

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18 сентября 2013, 18:25

Camelot Information Systems to be taken private by management

Camelot Information Systems (CIS +4.4%) shares jump to $1.91 after the company enters into a take private agreement pursuant to which CEO Simon Yiming Ma and 34 employees will purchase all outstanding ADRs at $2.05/share. The transaction is expected to close in early 2014.The buyout will be financed by $70M in debt from China Development Industrial Bank and $20M in convertible debt from Zoyi Management Consulting. Post your comment!

18 сентября 2013, 14:58

T-Minus Seven Hours Till Taper

The day when the Fed will begin the unwind of its latest QE program (for the fourth time) has finally arrived (as has the day when an impeachment committee will vote whether to ban Berlusconi from public office, but understandably that is getting far less press). In a few short hours the answer to all those questions of whether and how much of the taper was priced in, will be revealed. But while the Taper discussions will dominate the airwaves, as they have for the past five months, there actually were some news in the world that had nothing to do with the US Politburo in charge of capital markets and the US economy, located in the Marriner Eccles building. Here is a brief summary. Market recap from RanSquawk Even though stocks traded higher in Europe this morning, seemingly ignoring the looming risk event (FOMC), safe-haven assets such as CHF and JPY remained bid given the obvious risks surrounding the event. Nevertheless, financials and tech sectors led the move higher, as credit spreads tightened, supported by the release of the minutes of the ECB's money-market contact group, where Draghi told the group the ECB intends to move to simpler collateral framework when fragmentation is significantly reduced. GBP outperformed EUR this morning, with the GBP 1y1y forward swap rate better bid after the minutes of the most recent MPC meeting revealed that no MPC member saw more stimulus needed at present and voted unanimously to keep the benchmark rate, as well as the APF unchanged. The minutes also noted that the expectations of future inflation implied by financial market prices had risen only marginally on the month. However the MPC also noted that GBP strength makes CPI slightly more likely to be below 2.5% in 18-24 months, oil may push up short-run CPI. Even though Gilt yield curve steepened following the release, B/E rates held steady at around 3.083%. Going forward, apart from awaiting the announcement from the Fed, market participants will also get to digest the  release of the latest Housing Starts and Building Permits data. Overnight headline news bulletin from Bloomberg and RanSquawk Treasuries steady before FOMC, with decisions on rates and possible asset purchase reductions and updated economic projections at 2pm in Washington, Bernanke press conference at 2:30pm. Most strategists expect $10b-$15b of tapering, possible changes to forward guidance A drop in demand for home loans may push Fed away from tapering MBS purchases S&P forecasts a 0.7% decline in real GDP in Eurozone this year and sees 0.8% rise in Eurozone real GDP in 2014 and 1.3% in 2015. Wall Street banks, facing a drop in 3Q trading revenue, are counting on today’s Federal Reserve announcement to spark a surge in volume Janet Yellen has won praise from labor leaders for fighting to put unemployment on equal ground with controlling inflation at the core of Fed policy Bank of England policy makers voted unanimously to keep policy unchanged as an improving economic outlook prompted agreement that no more stimulus was needed, minutes of Sept. 3-4 meeting showed New home prices in China’s four major cities rose the most since January 2011 last month, led by a 19% jump in Guangzhou, as the government refrains from imposing further curbs to cool the market Abe’s plan to boost the economy in part by reviving the housing market and encouraging new home construction is in conflict with Japan’s demographics; its population is one of the world’s fastest-aging The borrowing and lending of European bonds in repo market expanded this year, even as U.S. trading contracted, the International Capital Market Association said Sovereign yields mostly higher. EU peripheral spreads tighten. Nikkei +1.35 falls 0.65%, Shanghai Composite +0.3%. European stocks, U.S.  equity-index futures gain. WTI crude and copper higher, gold falls Asian Headlines China is concerned about the potential for volatility in the US Treasury market in the face of Fed tapering but doesn't plan to sell in a falling market and will instead continue to hold to maturity, according to government sources. EU & UK Headlines BoE MPC voted 9-0 to keep QE unchanged at GBP 375bln and 9-0 to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50%, no MPC member saw more stimulus needed at present . - Rise in short-dated Gilt yields reflected US moves, better than expected UK data, possible reaction to BoE guidance. - Need to emphasise that 7% unemployment level not a trigger for higher rates. - GBP strength makes CPI slightly more likely to be below 2.5% in 18-24 months, oil may push up short-run CPI. - UK recovery at least as strong as forecast in August, Eurozone recovery stronger than expected. Minutes of the ECB's money-market contact group says Draghi told the group the ECB intends to move to simpler collateral framework when fragmentation is significantly reduced. ECB's Coeure said he has full confidence that Fed will conduct its exit smoothly and the ECB still needs high level accommodation in monetary policy to safeguard recovery. Germany sold EUR 4.22bln in 0.25% 2015, b/c 1.6 (Prev. 1.8), avg. yield 0.22% (Prev. 0.23%) and retention 15.6% (Prev. 18.16%). RWI forecasts German CPI at 1.6% in 2013 and 1.8% in 2014. Maintains German 2013 GDP forecast at 0.4% and sees 2014 GDP at 1.9%. EU Construction Output (Jul) M/M 0.3% (Prev. 0.7%, Rev. 0.9%) and EU Construction Output (Jul) Y/Y -1.2% (Prev. -3.0%, Rev. 2.7%) US Headlines US Senate Majority Leader Reid said House must act first on stop-gap government funding measure and until then the Senate is going to do nothing. Equities Even though stocks traded higher in Europe this morning, seemingly ignoring the looming risk event (FOMC), safe-haven assets such as CHF and JPY remained bid given the obvious risks surrounding the event. Nevertheless, financials and tech sectors led the move higher, as credit spreads tightened, supported by the release of the minutes of the ECB's money-market contact group, where Draghi told the group the ECB intends to move to simpler collateral framework when fragmentation is significantly reduced. Of note, it was reported by the Spanish central bank that Spanish bad loans ratio at 11.97% in July vs. 11.63% in June. FX Better bid USTs in early trade ahead of the FOMC meeting and consequent interest rate differential flows saw USD/JPY trade under pressure in London this morning. The move lower was also said to have been driven by touted ME selling EUR/JPY. In turn, the pair fell below the 100DMA line and looks set to make a test on the 50DMA line seen at 98.71. Broad based GBP strength following the release of the MPC meeting minutes saw EUR/GBP fall to its lowest levels since mid-Jan, with GBP/USD advancing to its highest since mid-Jan and towards the key 1.6000 level. Commodities Saudi Arabia produces 10.03mln bpd of crude, exports 7.47mln bpd and refineries process 1.8mln bpd for July, beating its prev. of 1.67mln for June according to JODI. US API US Crude Oil Inventories (Sept 13) W/W -252K vs. Prev. -2930K - Cushing Crude Inventory (Sept 13) W/W -889K vs. Prev. -587K - Gasoline Inventories (Sept 13) W/W -641K vs. Prev. 195K - Distillate Inventory (Sept 13) W/W -167K vs. Prev. 807K In northeastern Colorado nearly 1900 wells were shut yesterday whilst operators investigated the impacts of deadly flooding on oil and gas installations. China average daily crude steel output at 2.129mln tonnes during 1st-10th September, which is up by 0.48% from 21st-31st August, according to industry data. - China is to shut 89.3mln tonnes of outdated steel capacity in Hebei, Shanxi and Shandong provinces by 2017, according to the government. Elsewhere, China will cut coal consumption and shut capacity of polluting industries in key northern cities and provinces by 2017. Peru finance minister says the President will ask Congress next week to approve a new package of laws to untangle investments from red tape that has delayed mining projects. * * * Traditionally, we round out the overnight recap with Jim Reid's prior day summary: As we head into today’s all-important FOMC, overnight markets are trading with a cautious tone. S&P 500 futures and the USD index are both trading less than one-tenth of a percent higher as we go to print. 10yr UST yields are also broadly unchanged at 2.84%. The September recovery in the Nikkei (+2%) continues with the index up at two month highs supported by gains in the tech sector following yesterday’s outperformance of the NASDAQ (+0.75%). Other bourses including the Hang Seng (-0.2%), KOSPI (-0.4%) and ASX200 (-0.3%) are trading moderately weaker. The precious metals complex is also trading heavily in anticipation of tapering, led by gold (-1%), platinum (-0.5%) and silver (-1.4%). In the fixed income space, the bond world lost another AAArated issuer overnight with the S&P downgrade of the mining-rich Australian state of Western Australia to AA+ – a gentle reminder of the fiscal pressures facing much of the DM world. In China, there has been a lot of recent press hype about Shanghai’s new free-trade zone. A Bloomberg article says that shares of companies with the word “Shanghai” in their names, including those linked to the free-trade zone, have added US$45bn in market value since August 22nd or a gain of 27%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 5x over the same time period. Yesterday saw US markets record gains for the third consecutive day. The S&P 500 (+0.42%) ended above 1,700 for the first time since the beginning of August as US equities shrugged off a sluggish European session. Technology stocks (+0.54%) were the outperformer on the day helped by Microsoft’s announcement of a US$40bn share buyback and bump-up in dividends while oil & gas stocks (+0.02%) were the laggards following a 1.7% drop in oil prices. Indeed, share buybacks were a common theme across the market yesterday with companies such Philips, DollarTree, Herbalife and AT&T announcing or reportedly considering a stock buyback. US dataflow was largely positive with headline and core CPI below expectations at 0.1% MoM (vs 0.2% expected). September homebuilder sentiment was unchanged at 58—the highest reading since November 2005 – in spite of the continued increase in mortgage rates. Interestingly, the survey of prospective buyer traffic (47) rose to the highest level since October 2005. In Europe, Italian bond yields briefly fell back below those of Spain on Tuesday after political sources said former premier Silvio Berlusconi was likely to step back from moves to bring down the Italian government. Berlusconi was expected to strike a conciliatory tone in a video message on Tuesday but delayed it to Wednesday, according to political sources. After weeks of debate, party doves have apparently persuaded him to avoid provoking a crisis of government (Reuters). Turning to the day ahead, the FOMC statement and the updated economic and financial forecasts will be released at 2:00 pm EDT (7pm London). This will be followed half an hour later by Bernanke’s press conference which will have a Q&A session. The Fed aside, we get more US housing updates in the form of August housing starts, permits and mortgage applications data. The Bank of England publishes their latest minutes. According to Bloomberg, an Italian Senate Committee is expected to vote on a proposal to block Berlusconi’s expulsion from parliament on Wednesday evening. But all eyes will be on the FOMC.        

18 сентября 2013, 10:13

Утренний брифинг от Saxo Bank: обзор рынков на 18 сентября 2013 года

Обзор Форекс: Доллар США торгуется без изменений  Этим утром доллар США торгуется почти без изменений относительно большинства своих главных валютных партнёров в то время, как инвесторы предпочитают занимать выжидательную позицию в преддверии исхода сегодняшнего заседания Федеральной резервной системы США по денежно- кредитной политике, где Федеральный комитет по операциям на открытом рынке (FOMC), судя по всему, сократит программу ежемесячных покупок облигаций. Кроме того, следующая сразу за совещанием пресс-конференция председателя ФРС Бена Бернанке (Ben Bernanke) привлечёт внимание, поскольку может дать некоторые ответы на вопросы относительно долгосрочной стратегии центробанка США по снижению ликвидности. Между тем, интерес для участников рынка представляет и протокол последнего заседания Банка Англии. Так, в 5 часов утра по GMT евро и британский фунт торгуются почти на прежних уровнях против американского доллара по цене 1,3356 доллара и 1,5904 доллара соответственно. Австралийский доллар опустился на 0,1 процента в сравнении с долларом США. Как показали данные, австралийский индекс ведущих экономических индикаторов от Westpac вырос в июле. Европа: Рынок откроется в «плюсе» Открытие германского фондового индекса DAX и французского CAC ожидается на 27 и 8-11 пунктов выше соответственно. Индекс Британской фондовой биржи FTSE100 откроется повышением на 18 пунктов. Публикация данных по объёму строительства в Еврозоны, индексу ожиданий в Швейцарии от института ZEW и балансу счёта текущих операций Греции запланирована на сегодня. Информации по основным индикаторам Великобритании сегодня не будет. Между тем, внимание рынков обращено на сегодняшний релиз протокола последнего заседания Банка Англии по денежно- кредитной политике. Inditex SA (ITX), Le Noble Age SA (LNA), Smiths Group (SMIN), Redrow (RDW), JD Sports Fashion (JD/), M&C Saatchi (SAA), Town Centre Securities (TCSC) и Brightside Group (BRT) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. Как сообщил Bloomberg, сегодня на заседании наблюдательного совета Siemens AG (SIE), вероятно, объявит о назначении Джима Хагемана Снабе (Jim Hagemann Snabe) и Ральфа Томаса (Ralf Thomas) в качестве нового заместителя председателя и главного финансового директора соответственно. Бригитте Эдерер (Brigitte Ederer), глава подразделения Siemens AG (SIE) по работе с персоналом, уйдет в отставку со своей должности до истечения срока контракта, – пишет австрийская газета «Kronen Zeitung». Апелляционный суд США отклонил иск пенсионного фонда США против UBS AG (UBSN), связанный с последним предложением размещения ценных бумаг с ипотечным покрытием, оцениваемых на 2,5 миллиарда американских долларов в 2007 году. По словам французской ежедневной газеты «Les Echos», Peugeot SA (UG) планирует продать свою долю китайскому партнёру Dongfeng Motor Corporation для того, чтобы получить средства на финансирование своей программы расширения. Игнасио Бастаманте (Ignacio Bustamante) – главный исполнительный директор Hochschild Mining (HOC) – сообщил, что два новых проекта, известные как Inmaculada и Crespo, в Перу помогут компании увеличить текущий годовой объём производства серебра в 20,0 миллионов унций на 50,0 процентов в конце 2014 года. Азия: Торги в «красном» Этим утром азиатские рынки торгуются преимущественно с понижением на фоне предстоящего освещения решений ФРС на заседании по монетарной политике. В Японии бумаги Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012) поднялись в цене после сообщения компанией о выигрыше контракта на сумму 180,0 миллиардов японских иен на производство вагонов для Long Island Railroad в Нью-Йорке. Sharp Corporation (6753) продолжили повышение на фоне сообщений о возможном значительном увеличении операционной прибыли компании за первое полугодие. Chubu Electric Power (9502) выросли ввиду сокращения прогноза убытка на текущий финансовый год. В 5 часов утра по GMT индекс токийской фондовой биржи Nikkei 225 прибавил 1,9 процента, торгуясь на отметке 14585,8 пункта. В Китае EGing Photovoltaic Technology (600537) упали на спекуляциях о том, что принятых китайским правительством мер по сокращению избыточных можностей будет недостаточно для повышения цен на солнечные панели. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000) пошли вверх по причине одобрения Cоветом директоров компании плана открытия филиала в зоне свободной торговли Шанхая. В Гонконге Prada SpA (1913) понизились в связи с более низкой, чем ожидалось, прибылью за первое полугодие. В авангарде оказались акции China Foods (506), показав увеличение при назначении Цзяна Гуоджин (Jiang Guojin) своим управляющим с немедленным вступлением в должность. Рынки в Южной Корее сегодня закрыты по случаю праздника Фондовые рынки США: Фьючерсы торгуются выше В 5 часов утра по GMT фьючерсы на S&P 500 торгуются на 0,9 пункта выше. Публикация данных по количеству заложенных фундаментов под строительство домов, числу выданных разрешений на строительство и числа запросов на ипотечное кредитование от Ассоциации ипотечных банков запланирована на сегодня. Кроме того, в этот день рынки будут находиться в ожидании выхода новостей касательно процентных ставок от ФРС. Oracle (ORCL), FedEx Corporation (FDX), General Mills (GIS) и CLARCOR (CLC) отчитаются о результатах своей работы сегодня. Во время продлённой торговой сессии во вторник Adobe Systems (ADBE) поднялись на 5,5 процента на значительном увеличении подписчиков на Creative Cloud в третьем квартале, и это несмотря на то, что компания показала негативные результаты за третий квартал и финансовый прогноз ниже ожиданий на четвёртый. Alliance Fiber Optic Products (AFOP) взлетели на 13,6 процента на фоне повышения прогноза продаж на третий квартал. Dollar Tree (DLTR) выросли на 3,5 процента после того, как Совет директоров компании утвердил обратную покупку акций в размере около двух миллиардов долларов США. Electronic Arts (EA), напротив, опустились на 0,5 процента по причине назначения Эндрю Уилсона (Andrew Wilson) новым генеральным директором.  Вчера во время регулярной торговой сессии американский фондовый индекс S&P 500 поднялся на 0,4 процента в преддвверии начала заседания по кредитно- денежной политике ФРС, которое состоится сегодня. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) прибавили 0,4 процента на сообщении о том, что Совет директоров одобрил программу обратной покупки новых акций на сумму приблизительно 40,0 миллиардов американских долларов, а также вследствие повышения квартальных дивидендных выплат. Intel (INTC) выросли на 1,5 процента ввиду повышения целевой цены на акции брокером. Safeway (SWY) пошли вверх на 9,7 процента после того, как компания сообщила о принятии мер предотвращения нежелательного поглощения организации. Кроме того, было проинформировано о приобретении доли в 6,2 процента в компании активистом-инвестором Jana Partners LLC. Broadcom Corporation (BRCM) увеличились на два процента на повышениях брокера. Mosaic Company (MOS) потеряли 1,2 процента на фоне сокращения продаж и прогноза рентабельности на третий квартал по своим сегментам калийного и фосфатного производства. Сводка последних новостей Цены на жильё в Китае идут вверх На ежегодной основе средние цены на жильё в Китае в августе увеличились в 69 крупных городах из 70, по которым китайским правительством проводился обзор; в предыдущем месяце также наблюдался рост. Ведущий индикатор Австралии демонстирирует повышение Индекс ведущих экономических индикаторов от Мельбурнского иститута и банка Westpac поднялся в июле до отметки 295,1 по сравнению с 293,2 прошлого месяца. Экономические настроения в Австралии улучшаются Индекс ведущих экономических индикаторов от Conference Board в стране вырос до 122,6 в июле; в июне данный показатель составлял 122,2. Дефицит счёта текущих операций в Новой Зеландии увеличивается меньше ожиданий С учётом сезонных корректировок дефицит счёта текущих операций в Новой Зеландии вырос до 2,2 миллиарда новозеландских долларов во втором квартале 2013 года, что оказалось меньше ожиданий; пересмотренный размер дефицита в первом квартале 2013 года показал 2,1 миллиарда новозеландских долларов. Материал предоставлен Saxo Bank http://ru.saxobank.com

16 сентября 2013, 18:20

Anniversary Present for Wall Street Banks: A Financial Speculation Tax

Dean Baker Al Jazeera English, September 16, 2013 See article on original website As we mark the fifth anniversary of the Wall Street bailouts, it is clear that little has changed in the way they do business. They are still engaging in the same sorts of market manipulation and tax gaming as they did before the crisis. The weak conditions on the bailout money had no lasting effect in areas such as executive compensation. The industry itself is more concentrated than ever as the big banks used the crisis to merge with other banks, making themselves even bigger. And the Dodd-Frank reforms have been watered down to the extent that many are now pointless. It’s clear that Wall Street won that round. Their greed and incompetence would have put most, if not all, of the big Wall Street players out of business in the 2008 crisis. Thanks to their power with top figures in both political parties, they were able to count on government handouts to get out of the mess they had themselves created. And, thanks to Wall Street’s ability to influence reporting on financial issues, most people reading about the anniversary of the bailouts will be told that we are lucky things turned out as they did. After all, we didn’t get a Second Great Depression. Avoiding a Second Great Depression, like avoiding the Black Plague, is not much grounds for celebration. We usually don’t expect either. No one should be thanking anyone connected with Wall Street for avoiding a horrible event that never even should have been a possibility. This brings us back to the problem of dealing with an out-of-control financial sector. The efforts to do finely focused fixes in Dodd-Frank largely went nowhere. This calls for a different approach: regulating the industry with a sledge hammer known as a financial speculation tax. The idea is simple and old. We can place a small tax on financial transactions to discourage rapid turnover.  Eleven countries in the European Union are planning to impose a tax of 0.1 percent on stock trades and 0.01 percent on most derivative transactions. Senator Tom Harkin and Representative Peter DeFazio have proposed a tax of 0.03 percent on both types of transactions. Representative Keith Ellison has proposed a somewhat higher tax. Such taxes can raise large amounts of revenue, which would come almost exclusively out of the hides of the Wall Street gang. The Joint Tax Committee of Congress estimated that the Harkin-DeFazio tax would raise close to $40 billion a year. While much of the tax itself would be largely passed on in higher transactions costs, there is considerable research showing that investors and other end users respond to higher trading costs by cutting their transactions in roughly equal proportions. In other words, the research shows that if it costs twice as much to trade a share of stock, most investors will engage in roughly half as much trading. In that case, the amount that investors spend on trading each year will be little changed, even if they pay more per trade. The same story applies to other end users in financial markets. For examples, farmers are likely to buy and sell somewhat fewer futures contracts on their crops. And airlines will buy and sell fewer options on jet fuel. The trades themselves end up a wash since every trade that has a winner also has a loser. The real losers from the reduction in trading volume that would result from a financial transactions tax are the banks. They would both see fewer trades and likely be able to pocket less money on each trade as a result of the tax. This is really a horror story for them. This is why they are pumping out nonsense at record paces, arguing that the world will end if we impose financial transactions taxes. They claim that investors will see enormous increases in costs, because somewhere they will decide to trade more than ever so that they can pay the tax hundreds of times a year. (Seriously, that is what these folks say and business reporters repeat.) They claim that everyone will just move their trades to places like Hong Kong, China, India, and Singapore. They never mention that all these markets already have financial transactions taxes. In fact they somehow forget that the London stock exchange has been taxing stock trades at the rate of 0.5 percent. This tax dates back more than three centuries and raises the equivalent (relative to GDP) of $40 billion a year in the United States. The financial industry guys even claim that trade agreements make the imposition of effective financial transactions taxes illegal. This is an interesting argument. Does anyone remember the politicians pointing out that their trade deals would make it impossible to tax financial transactions in the same way we tax shoes, cars, and nearly everything else we consume? Did the media report this at the time? If trade deals actually do prohibit financial transaction taxes then that would be a great item to amend in current trade negotiations. And we should immediately fire lots of trade reporters and editors for being so ungodly incompetent that they neglected to mention this fact in their coverage of past trade deals. But the reality is that there is no good reason not to tax the Wall Street folks who gave us this crisis. The only reason financial speculation taxes are not front and center on the national agenda is the power of the financial industry. Just as was the case five years ago, they are using this power to get ever richer at the expense of the rest of us.

Выбор редакции
16 сентября 2013, 12:59

UPDATE 1-Alibaba's Ma expands banking foray with China Minsheng tie-up

HONG KONG/BEIJING, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Alibaba Group's founder, Jack Ma, took another stab at shaking up China's banking industry as the country's largest e-commerce firm sealed a strategic pact with mid-sized lender China Minsheng Banking Corp Ltd to offer financial services.    

16 сентября 2013, 10:28

Утренний брифинг от Saxo Bank: обзор рынков на 16 сентября 2013 года

Обзор Форекс: Доллар США торгуется с понижением  Этим утром доллар США торгуется с понижением относительно своих главных валютных партнѐров, когда стало известно, что Федеральная резервная система США сохранит свою политику смягчения в течение более длительного периода после того, как принадлежащий к лагерю «ястребов» Лоуренс Саммерс (Lawrence Summers) отказался от борьбы за место следующего главы Федрезерва. Между тем, внимание рынков сфокусируется на данных по инфляции потребительских цен. Кроме того, интерес для участников биржевой торговли представляет информация из США о деловой активности в секторе обрабатывающей промышленности Нью-Йорка, которая должна сказать об улучшении ситуации в сентябре. Так, в 5 часов утра по GMT британский фунт и евро прибавили 0,8 процента и 0,7 процента против американского доллара, торгуясь по цене 1,5955 доллара и 1,3364 доллара соответственно. Австралийский и канадский доллары выросли на 0,8 процента и 0,5 процента в сравнении с валютой США соответственно. Японская иена поднялась на 0,4 процента по отношению к американскому доллару, и опустилась относительно евро на 0,1 процента. Европа: Рынок откроется в «плюсе» Открытие германского фондового индекса DAX и французского CAC ожидается на 126-131 и 56-57 пунктов выше соответственно. Индекс Британской фондовой биржи FTSE100 откроется повышением на 68-72 пункта. Публикация индекса потребительских цен и индекса стоимости рабочей силы в Еврозоне; счѐта текущих операций и торгового баланса в Италии запланирована за сегодня. Между тем, рынки находятся в ожидании выхода квартального бюллетеня Банка Англии. ABC Arbitrage (ABA), Deutsche Beteiligungs AG (DBAN), Micropole (MUN) Petra Diamonds (PDL), Optimal Payments (OPAY), Waterlogic (WTL), EKF Diagnostics Holdings (EKF), Shore Capital Group (SGR), Plant Health Care (PHC), Allergy Therapeutics (AGY), Corac Group (CRA), TLA Worldwide (TLA) и NetDimensions Holdings (NETD) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. В своѐм интервью немецкой «Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung» генеральный директор Volkswagen AG (VOW3) Мартин Витеркорн (Martin Winterkorn) сказал, что он планирует остаться на своѐм посту до истечения контракта в 2016 году. Израильская холдинговая компания Koor Industries сообщила о продаже дополнительных 5,5 миллиона акций в Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) на сумму приблизительно 157,5 миллиона швейцарских франков. Как пишет германская еженедельная газета «WirtschaftsWoche», Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN) планирует продать свой немецкий бизнес частных клиентов Credit Suisse Deutschland AG. Главный исполнительный директор Vodafone India заявил, что компания Vodafone Group (VOD) планирует сделать некоторые приобретения в Индии, как только правительство Индии внесѐт ясность в закон о слиянии в стране. Mario Negri Institute – один из ведущих медицинских институтов в Италии – прекратил совместные научно-исследовательские работы с GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) после обвинения фармацевтической компании в еѐ «нечестной» и «жѐсткой» политике. Glencore Xstrata (GLEN) дала согласие на ведение поисковых работ на железорудном месторождении в Республике Конго; так, затраты могут составить около 3,0 миллиардов американских долларов.  Азия: Торги преимущественно в «зелѐном» Этим утром азиатские рынки торгуются преимущественно на положительной территории на фоне предположений инвесторов о том, что ФРС будет придерживаться мягкой денежно-кредитной политики после того, как Лоуренс Саммерс (Lawrence Summers) снял свою кандидатуру на место следующего еѐ председателя. Сегодня в Японии рынки закрыты по случаю государственного праздника. В Гонконге акции Tencent Holdings (700) увеличились в цене ввиду того, что компания подала заявку на выдачу банковской лицензии. Metallurgical Corporation of China (1618), напротив, опустились вслед за сокращением недавно подписанных контрактов с января по август 2013 года. В Южной Корее Hyundai Steel (004020) прибавили на повышении брокером целевой цены акции. SK Hynix (000660) пошли вверх после того, как еѐ американский конкурент Micron Technology сократил производственные мощности DRAM. Бумаги Celltrion (068270), напротив, показали резкое падение вниз на сообщениях о том, что южнокорейские органы финансового регулирования расследуют дело еѐ генерального директора Сео Юн-Джин (Seo Jung-jin) касательно недобросовестной торговли акциями. В Китае China Coal Energy Company (601898) опустились несмотря на увеличение коммерческих объѐмов угольного производства в августе. Фондовые рынки США: Фьючерсы торгуются выше В 5 часов утра по GMT фьючерсы на S&P 500 торгуются на 18,8 пункта выше. Публикация промышленного и производственного индексов, индекса деловой активности в производственном секторе Нью-Йорка и индекса использования производственных мощностей в США запланирована сегодня. Cvent Inc. (CVT) и Orthofix International NV (OFIX) объявят о результатах своей работы сегодня. Во время продлѐнной торговой сессии в пятницу цена на бумаги KCAP Financial (KCAP) упала на три процента после снижения компанией квартальных дивидендных выплат. Gold Resource (GORO) и ChemoCentryx (CCXI) также оказались среди отстающих, упав на 6,9 процента и 3,3 процента соответственно. World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), напротив, пошли вверх на 0,4 процента несмотря на понижение еѐ годового прогноза по операционной прибыли AutoNavi Holdings ADS (AMAP), Blyth (BTH) и Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) поднялись на 6,7 процента, 3,4 процента и 2,6 процента соответственно. Американский фондовый индекс S&P 500 во время регулярной пятничной торговой сессии прибавил 0,3 процента. Safeway (SWY) и Intel (INTC) подскочили на 6,1 процента и 3,6 процента соотвественно вслед за повышениями брокера. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) поднялись на шесть процентов после того, как брокер повысил целевую цену акции. GameStop Corporation (GME) пошли вверх на 6,1 процента на фоне значительного роста продаж видеоигр в США в августе. Apple (AAPL) упали на 1,7 процента по причине понижения целевой цены акций брокером. Peabody Energy (BTU), CONSOL Energy (CNX) и Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) также отступили на 3,2 процента, 2,2 процента и 1,6 процента соотвественно на пересмотренных Экологических правилах, которые будут обнародованы на следующей неделе. J. C. Penney (JCP) потеряли 0,7 процента после того, как Vornado Realty Trust сообщил о своих планах продать 20-процентную долю в компании. Сводка последних новостей Л. Саммерс снимает свою кандидатуру с выборов на пост председателя ФРС Лоуренс Саммерс (Lawrence Summers), быший министр финансов США, отказался от участия в предвыборной гонке за место нового президента Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС). США и Россия достигли соглашения в проблеме химоружия Сирии В минувшие выходные США и Россия достигли согласия в вопросе сирийского химического оружия, согласно которому правительству Сирии будет отведено семь дней на декларирование перечня всех имеющихся у них химических запасов, которые необходимо будет уничтожить к середине 2014 года с «немедленным и неограниченным доступом» для международных инспекторов. Кроме того, Барак Обама предупредил, что в случае отказа Сирии выполнить эти условия, США по-прежнему будут готовы действовать. Снижение цен на жильѐ в Великобритании Как сообщило агентство Rightmove, в сентябре средняя запрашиваемая цена на жильѐ сократилась на 1,5 процента относительно снижения на 1,8 процента в предыдущем месяце. Активность в секторе услуг Новой Зеландии замедляется С учѐтом сезонной корректировки индекс деловой активности PMI в сфере услуг Новой Зеландии упал в августе до 53,2 пункта, что стало самым минимальным значением за период с января 2013 года; в июле показатель находился на отметке 58,2 пункта. Продажи жилой недвижимости в Новой Зеландии сокращаются По данным Новозеландского института недвижимости ((REINZ)), в августе общее число продаж жилья в стране уменьшилось на 3,4 процента по сравнению со снижением в 0,5 процента в июле. Ухудшение настроения потребителей в Новой Зеландии Согласно информации от Westpac, в третьем квартале 2013 года индекс уверенности потребителей в Новой Зеландии опустился до 115,4 пункта против 116,6 пункта, зафиксированных во втором квартале 2013 года. Материал предоставлен Saxo Bank http://ru.saxobank.com

13 сентября 2013, 10:21

Утренний брифинг от Saxo Bank: обзор рынков на 13 сентября 2013 года

Обзор Форекс: Доллар США торгуется выше  Этим утром доллар США торгуется с повышением относительно своих конкурентов в то время, как инвесторы внимательно следят за информацией из США по розничным продажам, которая, согласно ожиданиям, скажет о месячном росте в августе. Кроме того, индекс уверенности потребителей от Reuters/Michigan будет находится в поле зрения инвесторов в преддверии заседания Федрезерва США по денежно-кредитной политике на следующей неделе. Между тем, интерес для трейдеров представляет встреча министров финансов европейских стран, на которой они обсудят возможные дальнейшие действия в отношении будущего Греции и Кипра. Так, в 5 часов утра по GMT евро и британский фунт потеряли 0,2 процента и 0,1 процента против американского доллара, торгуясь по цене 1,3281 доллара и 1,5791 доллара соответственно. Австралийский и канадский доллары сократились на 0,2 процента и 0,1 процента в сравнении с валютой США соответственно. Европа: Рынок откроется в основном без изменений Открытие германского фондового индекса DAX и французского CAC ожидается на 0-3 пункта ниже и 3-4 пункта выше соответственно. Индекс Британской фондовой биржи FTSE100 откроется с повышением на 0-1 пункт. Публикация данных по изменению числа занятых, объёму строительства и торговому балансу в Еврозоне; индексу цен производителей и цен на импорт в Швейцарии; а также объёму строительства в Великобритании запланирована на сегодня. Gerry Weber International AG (GWI1), Fimalac (FIM), FFP (FFP), Songbird Estates (SBD) и J D Wetherspoon (JDW) отчитаются о результатах своей деятельности сегодня. Консультационный совет Управления по контролю продуктов питания и лекарственных средств США рекомендовали медицинский препарат Perjeta, разработанный Roche Holding AG (ROG) для уменьшения опухоли в предоперационный период. Председатель Banco Santander SA (SAN) Эмилио Ботин (Emilio Botin) сказал, что компания выделит 10,0 миллиардов долларов США в рамках финансирования проектов по развитию инфрастуктуры в Бразилии. Американский аппеляционный суд федерального округа постановил, что Teva Pharmaceuticals USA и Par Pharmaceutical могут продавать медицинский препарат для лечения болезней сердца Lovaza, разработанный подразделением Pronova компании BASF SE (BAS), на территории США. Helios, подразделение Fresenius SE (FRE), согласилась на приобретение 43 больниц у Rhoen-Klinikum AG (RHK) приблизительно за 3,1 миллиарда евро. Vodafone Group (VOD) получила одобрение от более чем 75,0 процентов акционеров Kabel Deutschland на приобретение последней по цене 87,0 евро за акцию. BP (BP/) сообщила о возобновлении пробного бурения на своём месторождении Тайбер в Мексиканском заливе с 3 августа 2013 года. Британское агентство по стандартизации продуктов питания проинформировала о том, что J Sainsbury (SBRY) отзывает свой бренд упаковок водяного кресса, а также салатов его содержащих в рамках предостережения против возможной вспышки кишечной инфекции, вызванной бактерией E. Coli. Азия: Торги в «красном» Этим утром азиатские рынки торгуются преимущественно на отрицательной территории, отображая ночные потери на Уолл Стрит. В Японии Sharp Corporation (6753) продолжили торговаться под давлением на фоне сообщений о возможном объявлении о публичном размещении акций уже на следующей неделе. Однако, бумаги компаний-акционеров Twitter – Digital Garage (4819) и Yahoo! Japan Corporation (4689) – пошли вверх после того, как Twitter сообщила о подаче заявки на первичное публичное размещение ценных бумаг американских эмитентов и валютных комиссионных сборов. Seven & I Holdings (3382) прибавили в цене вслед за возможным увеличением её операционной прибыли за первое полугодие. В 5 часов утра по GMT индекс токийской фондовой биржи Nikkei 225 отступил на 0,7 процента, торгуясь на отметке 14292,3 пункта. В Китае акции финансового сектора Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000) и Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (601398) торгуются с понижением. В Гонконге Semiconductor Manufacturing International (981) уменьшились на сообщении о планах инвесторов компании продать свои доли. Sun Hung Kai Properties (16) упали в цене ввиду получения более низкой, чем ожидалось, годовой прибыли. В Южной Корее Samsung Fire & Marine Insurance (000810) отступили по причине объявления компанией о своих планах обратной покупки акций на сумму около 354,2 миллиарда южно-корейских вон. Фондовые рынки США: Фьючерсы торгуются выше В 5 часов утра по GMT фьючерсы на S&P 500 торгуются на 0,9 пунктa выше. Публикация данных по индексу настроения потребителей от Reuters/Michigan, изменению объёма розничных продаж, индексу цен производителей и объёму товарно-материальных запасов планируется на сегодня. Farmer Bros (FARM) и Linktone Limited (LTON) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. В четверг в рамках продлённой торговой сессии Ulta Salon Cosmetics & Fragrance (ULTA) и Analogic (ALOG) выросли на 14,3 процента и 3,2 процента соответственно после публикации квартальных результатов, превзошедших консенсус рынка. Компании-акционеры Twitter – GSV Capital (GSVC) и Firsthand Technology Value Fund (SVVC) – пошли вверх на 16,8 процента и 8,8 процента соответственно вслед за объявлением Twitter о подаче заявки на первичное публичное размещение ценных бумаг американских эмитентов и валютных комиссионных сборов. Nanosphere (NSPH), напротив, упали на 5,5 процента на фоне сообщения о начале компании предложения акций путем публичного размещения; информация об их количестве не разглашается. Во время вчерашней регулярной торговой сессии американский фондовый индекс S&P 500 снизился на 0,3 процента; так инвесторы продолжают проявлять осторожность ввиду событий в Сирии, а также в преддверии заседания Федеральной резервной системы по вопросам денежно-кредитной политики, запланированной на следующую неделю. Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) отступили на 5,2 процента вслед за понижениями брокера. Newmont Mining (NEM) потеряли 4,2 процента по причине падения цен на металл. Valero Energy (VLO) подешевели на 3,8 процента после того, как компания спрогнозировала увеличение капитальных расходов на 2014 год и задержку важных проектов на некоторых НПЗ. Apple (AAPL) прибавили 1,1 процента на сообщении инвестора Карла Икана (Carl Icahn) о приобретении дополнительной некоторой доли в компании. Walt Disney (DIS) подорожали на 2,4 процента на новостях компании о планах обратной покупки акций на сумму от шести до восьми миллиардов долларов в следующем году. Kroger (KR) подскочили на 2,5 процента вследствие превысившего ожидания дохода за второй квартал и повышения прогноза роста продаж на полный год. Walgreen (WAG) продвинулись вперёд на 5,0 процентов ввиду увеличения брокером рейтинга с «Buy» до «Conviction Buy». Сводка последних новостей Дефицит бюджета США сокращается Американский бюджетный дефицит сократился в августе до 147,9 миллиарда долларов США со 190,5 миллиарда, зафиксированных в том же периоде прошлого года. Производственная активность в Новой Зеландии замедляется С учётом сезонной корректировки индекс производственной активности PMI в секторе обрабатывающей промышленности в Новой Зеландии снизился в августе до 57,5; в июле данный показатель составлял 59,5 пункта. Ухудшение настроения потребителей в Новой Зеландии В сентябре индекс уверенности потребителей Новой Зеландии от ANZ уменьшился до 118,8 пункта против значения в 123,0 пункта, засвидетельствованного в августе. Цены на продукты питания в Новой Зеландии идут вниз На ежемесячной основе индекс цен на продукты питания в Новой Зеландии упал в августе на 0,5 процента по сравнению с ростом на 0,5 процента в прошлом месяце. Материал предоставлен Saxo Bank http://ru.saxobank.com

11 сентября 2013, 12:00

Wednesday’s ETF Chart To Watch: ENZL In Spotlight After New Zealand Rate Decision

Stocks continued their ascent on Tuesday thanks to upbeat economic data from China. Investors rejoiced over better-than-expected industrial production data as well as retail sales, sending a wave of optimism across emerging markets as well as developed ones, although industrial metals surprisingly didn’t take part in the rally. At home, Syria and the looming Fed meeting remain at the forefront and, as such, volatile trading is likely to persist over the coming weeks [see 3 Market Valuation Indicators ETF Investors Must Know].  Our chart to watch for today is the iShares MSCI New Zealand Capped ETF , which may gap in either direction at the opening bell as investors react to the overnight interest rate decision. Analysts are expecting for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates steady at 2.50%, although commentary after the rate decision itself could still spark a volatile reaction in the equity market. Chart Analysis [...]Click here to read the original article on ETFdb.com.Related Posts:ETFdb Weekly Watchlist: ENZL, EWA, XRT Hinge On Bank of New Zealand, Labor, And Retail DataETF Insider: How To Play Earnings This Week ETF Insider: Correction Pressures Are MountingETF Insider: Bears Lurking In Uncharted Territory3 ETFs To Watch This Week: EWJ, XRT, ENZL 

10 сентября 2013, 10:17

Утренний брифинг от Saxo Bank: обзор рынков на 10 сентября 2013 года

Обзор Форекс: Евро торгуется с повышением  Этим утром евро торгуется с повышением относительно большинства главных валют, в то время как настроение инвесторов повысилось на фоне ослабления обеспокоенности касательно возможных военных действий США против Сирии. Между тем, учитывая ненасыщенность макро экономическими новостями, сегодня, внимание рынков будет сосредоточено на информации по объѐму ВВП в Италии. Так, в 5 часов утра по GMT евро прибавил 0,2 процента против американского доллара, торгуясь по цене 1,3270 доллара, и несколько повысился в сравнении с британским фунтом, составив 0,8449 фунта в цене. Японская иена снизилась на 0,2 процента по отношению к евро. Как показал протокол последнего заседания Банка Японии по вопросам денежно-кредитной политики представители склонны были полагать, что японская экономика начала наблюдать умеренное восстановление. Австралийский доллар пошѐл вверх на 0,4 процента относительно американского доллара благодаря данным за август, показавшим, что индекс предпринимтельской уверенности в Австралии увеличился до самого высокого уровня за два года. Европа: Рынок откроется в «плюсе» Открытие германского фондового индекса DAX и французского CAC ожидается на 30-44 пункта и 14 пунктов выше соответственно. Индекс Британской фондовой биржи FTSE100 откроется повышением на 22 пункта. Публикация данных по индексу промышленного и фабричного производства во Франции и объѐму ВВП в Италии запланирована на сегодня. Внимание рынков сосредоточено на выходе в свет отчѐте от Банка Англии по условиям кредитования. Medica SA (MDCA), Interparfums SA (ITP), GameLoft SE (GFT), Ashmore Group (ASHM), Abcam (ABC), Hilton Food Group (HFG), Craneware (CRW), ISG (ISG), Quixant (QXT), NetPlay TV (NPT), Amara Mining (AMA) и Deltex Medical Group (DEMG) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. Deutsche Telekom AG (DTE) сократила список на четыре частных инвестиционные компании при переходе в следующий раунд продажи своей доли в цифровой Scout24 Holding GmbH, – передаѐт новостное агентство «Bloomberg». По информации газеты «Financial Times», Repsol SA (REP) попросила Citigroup и Deutsche Bank AG (DBK) изучить варианты возможной продажи еѐ 30- процентной доли в Gas Natural SDG SA (GAS). Banco de Sabadell SA (SAB) объявила о своих планах привлечь около 1,3 -1,4 миллиарда евро через продажу акций с целью урегулировать свой баланс и удовлетворить нормативные требования. Французская страховая компания Groupama SA сообщила о размещении около 250,0 миллионов евро путѐм продажи институциональным инвесторам 6,9 процентной доли в Eiffage SA (FGR). В соответствии с регулятором на Гонконгской фондовой бирже, торговля акциями Glencore Xstrata (GLEN) была приостановлена сегодня утром в ожидании выхода обновлений о ходе интеграции и будущего подхода к распределению капитала. Генеральный прокурор штата Массачусетс Марта Коакли (Martha Coakley) объявила, что Barclays (BARC) согласились выплатить 36,1 миллион долларов США в урегулирование обвинений, согласно которым компания сознательно создавала рискованные условия по ипотеке. Азия: Торги в «зелѐном» Этим утром азиатские рынки торгуются на положительной территории. В Японии цены на бумаги Daihatsu Motor (7262) и еѐ материнской компании Toyota Motor (7203) поднялись в цене после того как начали продавать модели, подходящие к условиям индонезийской программы стимулирования по экономичным транспортным средствам. Suntory Beverage & Food (2587) прибавили в цене на фоне подтверждения компанией покупки бренда напитков GlaxoSmithKline — Lucozade и Ribena приблизительно за 2,1 миллиарда долларов США. Komatsu (6301) пошли вверх ввиду того, что компания может отчитаться со значительным увеличением операционной прибыли в своих подразделениях. Tokyo Electric Power (9501), напротив, упали на фоне дополнительной утечки радиационной воды на АЭС «Фукусима». В 5 часов утра по GMT индекс Токийской фондовой биржи Nikkei 225 прибавил 1,3 процента, торгуясь на отметке 14392,8 пункта. В Китае China Shipping Containers (601866) и China Shipping Development (600026) подорожали на фоне надежд о повышении грузовых тарифов. В Гонконге Yanzhou Coal Mining (1171) выросли после того, как контролирующий акционер Yankuang Group Company увеличил свою долю в компании. В Южной Корее POSCO (005490) и Hyundai Steel (004020) также прибавили в цене. Фондовые рынки США: Фьючерсы торгуются выше В 5 часов утра по GMT фьючерсы на S&P 500 торгуются на 1,5 пунктa выше. Публикация данных по индикатору оптимизма в сфере малого предпринимательства от исследовательского фонда Национальной федерации независимого бизнеса (NFIB) и индексу розничных продаж от Johnson Redbook планируется на сегодня. Restoration Hardware Holdings (RH), Oxford Industries (OXM) и AEP Industries (AEPI) объявят о своих результатах сегодня. В понедельник в рамках продлѐнной торговой сессии PVH Corporation (PVH) отступили на 4,4 процента вследствие крупного убытка во втором квартале и осторожного финансового прогноза на третий квартал. Пессимистичный прогноз дохода на первый квартал и полный год привели Model N (MODN) к падению на 29,3 процента. Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) «рухнули» на 29,0 процентов после снижения дозы экспериментального препарата NBI-98854, для лечения редкого расстройства движения, не выполнив свою главную задачу в ходе проведения клинического исследования. Five Below (FIVE), напротив, выросли на 13,7 процента ввиду результатов второго вартала, оказавшихся выше консенсуса рынка и увеличения годового прогноза продаж и чистой прибыли. Palo Alto Networks (PANW) подорожали на 2,6 процента благодаря превзошедшему ожидания доходу за второй квартал. Американский фондовый индекс S&P 500 во время вчерашней регулярной торговой сессии прибавил один процент на фоне оптимистичных данных по экспорту в Китае за август. Apple (AAPL) поднялись на 1,6 процента в преддверии сегодняшнего мероприятия для инвесторов, в котором компания, как ожидается, представит две новые модели iPhone. Цена на бумаги Yum! Brands (YUM) возросла на 2,7 процента после повышения прогноза объѐма сопоставимых продаж в Китае на четвѐртый квартал. Biogen Idec (BIIB) подскочили на 1,6 процента ввиду того, что компания вступила в шестилетнее исследование совместно с Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS) по разработке способов лечения нервных расстройств. Expedia (EXPE) и NetApp (NTAP) пошли вверх на 1,9 процента и 1,2 процента соответственно вслед за увеличениями брокера. Molex (MOLX) «взлетели» на 31,7 процента после согласия частной фирмы Koch Industries приобрести вышеуказанную компанию примерно за 7,2 миллиарда долларов. Сводка последних новостей Экономика Японии наблюдает умеренный рост Как показал протокол последнего заседания Банка Японии по вопросам денежно- кредитной политики, представители склонны были полагать, что японская экономика начала наблюдать умеренное восстановление. Кроме того, члены Совета Центрального банка призвали правительство Японии продвигать финансовые реформы в целях контроля нежелательного роста доходности облигаций. Промышленное производство Китая растѐт, розничные продажи улучшаются В годовом исчислении промышленное производство в Китае увеличилось в августе на 10,4 процента, превысив рыночные прогнозы, в июле, данные свидетельствовали о росте до 9,7 процентов. Тем временем, объѐм розничных продаж в Китае вырос в августе на 13,4 процента, опережая ожидания аналитиков, в июле в годовом выражении прибыль составила 13,2 процента. Цены на жильѐ в Великобритании продоожают расти По информации Королевского института сертифицированных оценщиков (RICS), с учѐтом сезонной корректировки баланс цен на жильѐ в Великобритании увеличился в августе до 40,0 пунктов по сравнению с пересмотренным в сторону повышения показателем в 37,0 пунктов в июле. Увеличение потребительского редитования в США Обѐм потребительского кредитования в США вырос в июле на 10,4 миллиарда американских долларов, отстав от рыночных прогнозов, в то время как в июне, пересмотренные в сторону понижения данные указали на рост до 11,9 миллиардов долларов США. Денежный агрегат M2+CD в Японии остѐтся без изменений Рост денежного агрегата M2+CD в Японии остался без изменений в августе на отметке 3,7 процента, аналогичная картина наблюдалась и в прошлом месяце. Активность в секторе услуг в Японии падает С учѐтом сезонной поправки индекс активности в секторе услуг Японии упал в июле на 0,4 процента, что оказалось ниже рыночных ожиданий, тогда как в предыдущем месяце, пересмотренные в сторону понижения данные констатировали снижение до 0,5 процентов. Признаки улучшения настроения в деловых кругах в Австралии Как сообщил Национальный банк Австралии, индекс настроения в деловых кругах Австралии поднялся в августе до двухлетнего максимума 6,0 пунктов по сравнению с прошлым месяцем в -3,0 пункта. Материал предоставлен Saxo Bank http://ru.saxobank.com

09 сентября 2013, 15:49

Key Events And Issues In The Coming Week

On the global event front, in the week ahead, China retail sales and IP data will be important. In addition, the Indonesia MPC will meet on Thursday. In the intermeeting period, Bank Indonesia hiked policy rates by 50bps to defend its currency and we expect them to announce another 25bp hike this round. That would be 150bps in hikes since June and we will be watching to see how determined they sound to prevent further FX weakness. In Japan, the higher Q2 GDP revision (even if missing expectations) will be an important factor in the decision whether or not to go ahead with the VAT hike. The data will likely be spun as strong enough to support the tax increase as planned. In Europe, watch to see if industrial production registers a yoy increase for the second consecutive month. UK labour statistics will also be key since the BoE adopted a 7% unemployment threshold last month. In the US, retail sales on Friday will be the main data release. In addition, Congress will return from its 5-week recess on Monday and will likely keep their focus on Syria this week. Finally, San Francisco Fed President Williams (who does not vote on FOMC policy this year) will speak on Monday. Last week, Williams argued that the FOMC should maintain its focus on the unemployment rate, despite its limitations. After Friday's employment report saw the unemployment rate drop again due to falling participation, this issue is likely to resurface. The Fed's communication blackout period begins on Tuesday so Williams will be the last FOMC speaker before the September meeting ends on the 18th. The Week Ahead Monday, September 9 Australia Housing Finance (Jul): Consensus +2.0%, Previous +2.7%. Japan GDP Q2, Final 3.8%: Consensus 3.9%, Preliminary 2.6%. China CPI (Aug): Consensus +2.6% yoy, Previous +2.7%. China WPI (Aug): Consensus -1.7% yoy, Previous -2.3%. US Consumer Credit (Jul): Consensus +$12.3bn, Previous +$13.8bn. Also interesting: Fed’s Williams speaks. Tuesday, September 10 Australia Nab Business Survey (Aug): Previous: Business conditions -7pts, Confidence -3pts. China Retail Sales (Aug): Consensus +13.2%, Previous +13.2%. China IP (Aug): Consensus +9.9%, Previous +9.7%. India Trade Balance (Aug): Previous –US$12.3bn. Turkey GDP (Q2): Consensus +4.1%, Previous +3.0%. South Africa Current Account Balance (Q2): Consensus –ZAR196bn, Previous –ZAR191bn. France IP (Jul): Consensus +0.5% mom, Previous -1.4%. Sweden IP (Jul): Consensus +0.5% mom, Previous +3.0%. Italy GDP (Q2, Final): Consensus -0.2% qoq, Preliminary -0.2%. US Small Business Optimism (Aug): Consensus 95.0, Previous 94.1. Also interesting: US JOLTS job openings. Wednesday, September 11 Australia Consumer Sentiment (Sep): Previous 105.7. Hungary CPI (Aug): Consensus +1.6% yoy, Previous +1.8%. Czech Republic Current Account Balance (Jul): Consensus –CZK7.0bn, Previous –CZK3.2bn. Poland Current Account Balance (Jul): Consensus +EUR73mn, Previous +EUR574mn. Germany HCPI (Aug, Final): Flash 1.6% yoy. UK Unemployment (Aug): Consensus -21k, Previous -29.2k. UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Aug): Consensus 7.8%, Previous 7.8%. US Wholesale Inventories (Jul): Consensus +0.3% mom, Previous -0.2%. Thursday, September 12 Australia Employment (Aug): Consensus +10k, Previous -10.2k. Australia Unemployment Rate (Aug): Consensus 5.7%, Previous 5.8%. Australia Participation Rate (Aug): Consensus 65.2%, Previous 65.1%. Korea MPC: Consensus expect the policy rate to remain at 2.5% Philippines MPC: Consensus expect the policy rate to be unchanged at 3.5%. Japan Core Private Machinery Orders (Jul): Consensus +2.2%, Previous -2.7%. Turkey Current Account Balance (Jul): Consensus -$5.4bn, Previous -$4.5bn. Israel Current Account Balance (Q2): Previous +1.8bn. France HCPI (Aug): Consensus +1.0% yoy, Previous +1.2%. Spain HCPI (Aug, Final): Consensus 1.6% yoy. Flash 1.6%. Sweden Unemployment Rate (Aug): Consensus 7.9%, Previous 7.8%. Italy IP (Jul): Consensus +0.3% mom, Previous +0.3%. Euro Area IP (Jul): Consensus -0.3% mom, Previous +0.7%. US Import Price Index (Aug): Consensus +0.5% mom, Previous +0.2%. Also interesting: Mark Carney presents inflation report to Treasury Select Committee. US jobless claims. Friday, September 13 Russia MPC: Consensus expect the policy rate to remain at 5.5%. We continue to expect rates to remain on hold through the end of the year on the basis of a relatively stable inflation outlook. Consensus expects 50bps in cuts through the end of the year. Poland CPI (Aug): Consensus expect 1.1% yoy, Previous 1.1%. Sweden GDP (Q2, Final): Consensus -0.1% qoq, Preliminary -0.1%. US PPI (Aug): Consensus +0.2%, Previous +0.0%. US Core PPI (Aug): Consensus +0.1% mom, Previous +0.1%. US Retail Sales (Aug): Consensus +0.4% mom, Previous +0.2%. US Core Retail Sales (Aug): Consensus +0.3% mom, Previous +0.5%. US Consumer Sentiment (Sep): Consensus 82.0, Previous 82.1. US Business Inventories (Jul): Consensus +0.3% mom, Previous +0.0%. In table format from SocGen: Top issues for the week ahead: UK DATA TO UNDERMINE CARNEY UK data this week, including the August RICS house price balance, August claimant count and July construction, is set to paint a picture of recovery becoming  increasingly broad based. MARKET ISSUES: The better data are set to leave that market increasingly sceptical that Mr Carney will be able to stick to his forward guidance. Good news for Sterling! US CONSUMER STRENGTH July consumer credit is expected to see a slower pace with a gain of $11.1bn, down from $13.8bn in June. If our forecasts are correct, this nonetheless means a year-todate gains in consumer credit of $91bn compared to $79.6bn for the same period last year. The key report this week, however, will be the August retail sales. We look for a gain of 0.5% mom for retail sales ex-autos. MARKET ISSUES: In our opinion, data between now and 17-18 September is unlikely to steer the Fed away from tapering at the upcoming meeting. GOOD ACTIVITY FOR CHINA IN AUGUST As detail by lead China economist, Wei Yao in this edition of the Week Ahead, the August trade data painted a fairly mixed picture. This is the first of a truckload of Chinese data out this week. We expect August new loans to pick up to CNY740bn, but total credit is the more important variable, also capturing the shadow banking system and this is now slowing. Overall, we expect the August activity data (industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investments) to point to a further improvement in August. MARKET ISSUES: Looking ahead, our central scenario continues to look for a structural slowdown of the Chinese economy. Those expecting to see a durable return to 8%+ growth rates will in our opinion be disappointed. WILL GERMANY BE TOUGHER AFTER THE ELECTION? Just two weeks left to the German election and opinion polls have narrowed. An important question for the markets is just how tough a new German government will be on Europe. Will Spain and France be forced to catch up on what appears to be some fiscal slippage? Will Italy be pushed to reform? The consensus is that Chancellor Merkel will show some flexibility, but will nonetheless want to see progress on both austerity and reform. Tougher questions still are whether Greece and Portugal will receive further financial assistance. No surprise; the majority of Germans are opposed to lending more to the European periphery. Our expectation is that compromise will ultimately be reached, but will come with the usual conditionality. The deeper point around the German elections that we also have taken away from recent conversations with experts is the Germany will be politically more volatile over the next four year term as it seems increasingly unlikely that a strong majority will emerge from the German election. Wolfgang Munchau in the FT also makes this point. When it comes to European issues, the risk is that there will be little resolve to advance further on banking and fiscal union and little appetite for new loans. This would be very bad news for the European process. MARKET ISSUES: A less politically stable Germany is not a scenario that we believe is currently discounted by the markets. Risks of such an outcome are growing and all else being equal we see this as bad news for the future growth prospects of both the euro area and Germany. As highlighted in our recent European Themes, Germany urgently needs reform! Source: Goldman and SocGen    

09 сентября 2013, 02:55

Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Ben "Barrel'o'Monkeys" Bernanke

"What's more fun than a Barrel of Monkeys? Nothing!" What could be better than assembling a long chain of tangled monkeys, each reliant on those either side of it for purchase, with just the one person holding onto a single monkey's arm at the top end of the chain, responsible for all those monkeys dangling from his fingers. Of course, with great power comes great responsibility; and that lone hand at the top of the chain of monkeys has to be careful - any slight mistake and the monkeys will tumble, and that, we are afraid, is the end of your turn. You don't get to go again because you screwed it up and the monkeys came crashing down. On May 22nd of this year, Ben Bernanke's game of Barrel of Monkeys was in full swing. It had been his turn for several years, and he looked as though he'd be picking up monkeys for a long time to come. The chain of monkeys hanging from his hand was so long that he had no real idea where it ended... Via Grant Williams, ...That day, in prepared testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress in Washington, DC, Bernanke stated that the Fed could increase or decrease its asset purchases depending on the weakness or strength of data: The program relates the flow of asset purchases to the economic outlook. As the economic outlook — and particularly the outlook for the labor market — improves in a real and sustainable way, the committee will gradually reduce the flow of purchases. To assuage any lingering doubt, he continued: I want to be very clear that a step to reduce the flow of purchases would not be an automatic, mechanistic process of ending the program. Rather, any change in the flow of purchases would depend on the incoming data and our assessment of how the labor market and inflation are evolving. Markets fluttered a little as they tend to do around these carefully stage-managed performances, but remained largely sanguine. However, in the Q&A session that followed his prepared remarks, Bernanke, in response to a fairly innocuous question, went a little offpiste, straying into some improv, making a suggestion that, within minutes, had given rise to a phenomenon which by the end of the day had earned its very own soubriquet: the "Taper Tantrum": If we see continued improvement and we have confidence that that's going to be sustained then we could in the next few meetings ... take a step down in our pace of purchases. If we do that it would not mean that we are automatically aiming towards a complete wind down. Rather we would be looking beyond that to see how the economy evolves and we could either raise or lower our pace of purchases going forward. The statement contained the usual bit about the Fed being open to both decreasing OR increasing bond purchases; but it added one, as it turned out vital, piece of information: "... we could in the next few meetings ... take a step down in our pace of purchases." Boom! That's all it took. The monkeys began to shiver, shake, and screech. Now, I have been saying for the longest time that these days nothing matters to anybody until it matters to everybody, and that is largely down to the Fed themselves (and their peers across the various oceans and borders who are complicit in this era of free money). The proof of my statement is seen in the fact that as soon as Bernanke mentioned that the "taper" — which, let's face it, EVERYBODY knows has to happen sooner or later — would possibly begin before the end of 2013, markets began to crumble. ... Forgotten in the localized euphoria over the S&P's remarkable resilience was the fact that we live in an ever-shrinking world and that there are lots of other monkeys on the long chain dangling from Bernanke's hand. Moves the Federal Reserve makes have repercussions far and wide. Like in Jakarta, for example...  Sigh... But wait, there's more... The root cause of all this instability is, as I said at the beginning of this piece, Benny and the (Ink)Jets and their frivolous generosity. As emerging markets unravel in the face of a taper that was always inevitable at some point, the corner that the free-money Fed has painted other central banks into becomes ever more apparent as it shrinks. There really is no way out now, I'm afraid — not without some kind of organic growth allied with controlled inflation. Emerging-market central bankers need both. They have neither. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard nicely sums up the situation facing the Fed: (UK Daily Telegraph): The Fed has a duty of care to emerging markets, since its own hands are hardly clean. Zero rates and quantitative easing were the cause of dollar liquidity flooding these countries. It was the biggest reason why net capitals flows into emerging markets doubled from $4 trillion to $8 trillion after 2008, much of it wasted in a late cycle blow-off. Yes, China, Brazil, India and others handled the liquidity bath badly. They ramped up credit without generating much worthwhile growth. In China's case the economic return on loan growth has collapsed from a ratio of 0.85 to 0.17. The diminishing returns have shrunk to almost nothing. The credit boom disguised the underlying rot as the BRICS club lost labour competitiveness. Every case is different but nowhere was myth so divorced from reality is in Brazil. The country is languishing at 130th place in the World Bank's rankings for ease of doing business, industrial output is still 3pc below pre-Lehman levels and it has lost its way with dependence on iron ore and commodity exports. As Matt King from Citigroup says in a pithy note, tourists have discovered that "reality is less good than the brochure" in emerging markets and now they are pining for home. "Don't all come home at once. The exits are small," he warned.  One cannot blame the US for the failings of these countries, yet Ben Bernanke and his successor will still have to live with the consequences. Globalisation has entrapped the Fed. Like it or not, the Fed is the world's monetary superpower. The exodus of money from emerging markets that we have seen so far is nothing compared with what could happen if this episode is mishandled. The rapid escalation towards a Western missile strike on Syria is bringing matters to a head fast, with talk of a spike in crude oil prices to $150 a barrel setting off its own chain reaction. If the Fed really thinks that the rest of the world will have to "adjust to us" as it insists on draining global liquidity come what may, it may have a very rude surprise, yet again. Amen again, Brother Ambrose. A rude surprise may well await the world. As Ben Bernanke eyes his own exit, Janet Yellen and Larry Summers wait in the wings to see which of them gets to take the handoff of the ominously swaying monkey chain from the incumbent chairman's hand. One false move and all the monkeys may end up in a heap on the floor. Full Grant Williams Letter below: Ttmygh 03 Sept 2013     

09 сентября 2013, 01:05

Slumping Retail Sales Suggest China Is Tipping Into Recession

Here’s a paradox: Manufacturers are seeing big sales increases in China while retailers in the country are struggling, losing money, closing stores, going out of business.  Car companies, for instance, are in love with the country.  The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported bellwether passenger car sales jumped 13.4% in the first seven months of this year over the same period in 2012. Car dealers, however, are not so enamored.  Look under the hood, and it’s not hard to see why.  Last year, they were selling autos fast and furiously and carried, on average, only two weeks of inventory.  This year, they have at least three months of stock in the showrooms, in part because manufacturers, wanting to keep factory lines humming, are requiring them to hold that amount on hand.  Some unfortunate car retailers are, at the moment, stuck with five months worth of cars. Auto manufacturers are also benefiting from independent dealers gaming the system.  Some of them are actually buying cars shipped to their showrooms so that they qualify for manufacturer incentive payments. In a few instances, desperate dealers are going to absurd lengths to qualify for the bonuses.  One showroom in China will let you drive away a car after making a down payment.  That doesn’t sound unexceptional until you hear the other terms: you will never make another payment on your loan, you will get your down payment back in two years, and you will then own the car free and clear.  The dealer, incredibly, can make this arrangement work through a combination of manufacturer zero-down financing and incentives for reaching sales targets, yet the too-good-to-be-true terms indicate the car industry is approaching shaky ground. The problem in autos also plagues other sectors.  The biggest disparity between manufacturer sales versus dealer sales is among European luxury brands, especially those in high-end fashion and cosmetics.  Luxury sales surveyed by J Capital Research in the period from June to early August show a falloff of 20% across China.  “Durable goods appear to be stacking up in warehouses all over the country, a phenomenon that illustrates some of the distorting effects of engorging an economy on credit,” writes Anne Stevenson-Yang of that survey firm.  Brand owners can manufacture beyond reasonable requirements because credit is available and cheap.  In China, the name of the game is market share, and state banks are willing to support the ambitions of brand owners to produce in excess of demand.  That means, among other things, that Beijing’s retail sales number does not reflect the state of consumerism in China.  In fact, the National Bureau of Statistics includes in this closely watched figure items when they are shipped from the factory, not when they are sold to end users.  That’s one of the reasons why NBS can claim that retail sales climbed a robust 13.2% in July from a year ago. Double-digit growth, month after month?  Don’t tell that to hard-pressed Chinese retailers.  As , a footwear seller with more than 18,000 outlets in 360 Chinese cities, stated recently, “The reality behind the numbers is gloomier.”  And according to China Lilang, a menswear retailer, “Consumer sentiment showed no sign of significant recovery, affecting many businesses.” Consumers are in fact cautious, remaining wary.  Chinese households saved a remarkable 38% of disposable income last year—well up from less than 20% in the mid-1990s—and that percentage should climb even higher this year.  “As a defensive reaction, consumers are becoming more inclined to save and less willing to spend,” said Belle International.  That assessment is consistent with the findings of James Roy of Consultancy China Market Research Group.  Referring to middle-class consumers earning $6,000-$15,000 a year, he said this to Reuters: “Their sentiment and confidence is very negative from what we found and so that is going to hurt some of the mid-tier consumer retail brands.” Unsold inventory counts as gross domestic product, so Chinese growth figures still look healthy.  Eventually, however, overproduction will take its toll on factory output.  In China, that takes about a year according to trend-spotter Stevenson-Yang, who cites the examples of construction equipment makers after the stimulus boom of 2009-2010 and sportswear companies after the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing.  The same is inevitably going to happen to other sectors, probably by around the end of this year if the pattern holds this time. A clue that the economy is decelerating is the dismal performance of companies that either cannot or will not stockpile goods.  As Stevenson-Yang tells us, “the range of reported growth for Chinese supermarkets and restaurant chains since the second half of 2012, as reported by overseas-listed companies, is from -20% to +4.5%, with most showing slightly negative to flat growth.”  Foreign companies in China are definitely feeling the chill.  reported a 20% fall in same-store sales in Q2.  The company blames the avian flu scare that impacted KFC.  McDonald’s—less convincingly—also used that excuse for a 6.1% drop in comparable Q2 sales.  Coca-Cola was “even,” down from 7% growth in the same quarter in 2012 due to “economic slowdown, poor weather, and competitive activity.”  How about world-beater Walmart?  That would be 2.5% growth in comparable store sales, impressive considering there was a 6.8% decline in store traffic. Looking for a bright spot in Chinese retailing?  Try the gold sector, but that is probably due more to hoarding and informal capital flight than anything else.  In reality, the good fortune of gold sellers is not a good sign for anyone else. Analysts, mostly relying on official data, think the Chinese economy is stabilizing.  The country’s consumers, however, are telling us something else.  Follow me on Twitter @GordonGChang

09 сентября 2013, 00:55

UK economy: a miraculous recovery – or a blip in a longer-term decline?

The UK seems to be experiencing a remarkable economic turnaround – but how is it comparing with the US and Europe?In Newcastle-upon-Tyne, property prices are racing ahead. Over the last year it ranks as Britain's top performing city, with an 11% jump in the cost of buying a home.London lags behind the capital of the north-east with a 5.2% increase, though it remains the most expensive region.The forecast is that prices will soar over the next couple of years as the turnaround in Britain's economic fortunes begins to feed into the property market.In the last month, the economy has stepped up a gear. Manufacturing and construction industries have fallen in step with the already resurgent service sector to push the UK well ahead of Germany, France and the rest of the eurozone in the growth stakes.When the latest GDP figures appear next month, the UK could outstrip the US, which has propped up the world economy since the financial crash of 2008.Economists are now asking whether George Osborne has found a magic formula. Such is the confidence in Britain's new-found vigour that some experts are questioning the Bank of England's low-interest policy, which Threadneedle Street said only last month should last until 2016, such is the underlying weakness of key sectors in the economy.So is the UK recovery real? Is it just a short-term burst in property dealing before the longer-term realities of a slow decline reassert themselves? And how does the UK compare with other countries?Employment/paySince the financial crash, workers across the developed world have been forced to price themselves back into work. Workers in Spain, Ireland, Germany and the UK have accepted the equivalent of zero-hour contracts that come with low pay and few benefits.Britain's unemployment rate is now below 8% – although still above the 7% level being targeted by the Bank of England. As a result of immigration, there are almost 2m more people in the UK than in 2008, and many have found jobs.However, this expansion in activity has not fed through into wage packets. The TUC has calculated that in the last five years average pay has fallen by 6.3% in real terms. A worker putting in 40 hours a week is £30.30 a week worse off, taking inflation into account, than in 2008.Studies shows that four in every five jobs created since 2010 have been in low-pay sectors.Wage rises in 2013 are averaging 2%, while inflation is running at 2.8%. A report on Monday by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG shows the sharpest rise in salaries for full-time staff since 2008, but the REC also found that short-term appointments are at their highest since July 1998 – showing that employers are still seeking a flexible workforce.A surge in the number of new jobs in the last 18 months has cut the US unemployment rate to 7.3%, its lowest for four years. But much of the fall is due to people leaving the job market altogether, mainly due to baby boomers retiring, younger people staying in college, and poorer workers claiming disability benefits. The US employment rate is 63.2% compared with 71.5% in the UK. In July a lacklustre 169,000 extra jobs were created, less than the 400,000 needed before the unemployment rate falls meaningfully.In July, EU unemployment was at 11% , with the eurozone at 12.1% – both up half a percentage point on July 2012. That meant 26.6 million unemployed – roughly equal to the entire population of the Netherlands and Belgium combined.The situation is much more concentrated among young people, with 5.5 million under-25-year-olds jobless.Despite the crisis, salary levels have risen everywhere in the EU in recent years, with the notable exception of Britain and the bailed-out countries of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.The EU's highest earners, the Danes, enjoyed gross average earnings of €60,000. Its poorest, the Bulgarians, get €4,668.ExportsThe financial crash of 2008 brought with it an inbuilt spur for recovery – a low exchange rate. While the indebted countries of the eurozone were tied to an exchange rate dictated by Germany, the UK could cash in on a 25% decline in the value of sterling.Exports of goods are up, but the rise has disappointed ministers, who believed manufacturers would grab a golden opportunity to win market share in fast-growing countries such as Brazil, China and Turkey. Manufacturers have increased their output in response to an increase in domestic demand and turned away from cultivating export orders.Without the revenues from North Sea oil and gas production, which have proved insufficient to counter energy imports since 2004, the UK's industrial position looks weak.The service sector, which includes the City, the advertising industry and £9bn education export business, has maintained a surplus over imports throughout the last five years. However, exports of services have remained flat.Maintaining Washington's spending budgets between 2009 and 2012 against attacks from conservative forces in Congress kept the economy growing. That is the Keynesian view inside the White House and among liberal commentators, who argue that the reason the US economy is larger than it was in 2008 (the UK economy is still 2.7% smaller) is the result of government spending and investment.Like Germany, the US has benefited from huge demand from China and the far east for industrial equipment and cars. As a result, exports have grown steadily and proved a major impetus to growth.Germany, along with China, is the global export champion, and while the crisis has hurt purchases of German goods in parts of the EU, its performance continues to excel, helping the EU to a rising exports record.German exports grew 4.3% last year to over €1tn, according to the federal statistics office, with a more than 10% increase in sales to non-EU countries compensating for stagnation in European exports.EU exports collapsed by more than €200bn in 2009 compared with the previous year, but have since recovered.InvestmentIn the four years since the crash, investment and productivity have been low in Britain. In 2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that an 8% rise in business investment in 2011 would help haul the UK out of its slump. It never materialised. Instead businesses have sat on cash and investment was 10% lower in 2012 than 2010.Business investment in the US has been disappointing, although US companies borrowed more in July than they did a year ago – an encouraging sign for the US economy. Foreign direct investment into the US, at $3.5tn, is 17% of the global total in 2011 – down from 39% in 1999.The EU business investment climate remains grim because of the credit crunch, the banks' reluctance to lend and because of the traditional national retrenchment in times of crisis, with the European Central Bank registering a sharp decline in cross-border investment in the Eurozone.According to Eurostat, foreign direct investment in the EU fell to its lowest level since 2005 last year, or by a third on 2011. EU FDI abroad was even worse hit, falling by 54% or to the level of 2004.HousingMortgage approvals are up by 10% over the last year and prices by 5.4%, according to Halifax, while estate agent LSL painted an even more upbeat picture. It said mortgage applications were up 45% on the previous year.The rush of mortgage applications follows the implementation of the Bank of England's funding for lending scheme, which effectively subsidises banks that offer lower mortgage rates, and the Treasury's Help to Buy scheme.The Institute of Directors has described the stimulus to the housing market as "bonkers". But there are counterarguments. With transactions at two-thirds of their 2007 peak, prices are finally reacting as much to pent-up demand as to the prospect of economic growth.The US experienced the biggest property price crash of any developed nation, with prices down by up to 50% in the south-western states and Florida. But the market is now turning around, with the worst-hit states now recording the biggest increases. The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller index showed prices 12.1% higher in June compared with a year earlier.Across southern Europe and Ireland, house prices have fallen by up to 50%, but there are signs that the worst is over. Berlin, Munich and Frankfurt have led a price recovery.The OECD, the Paris-based thinktank, says the UK's property prices are overvalued by around 22% – but that French property is overvalued by 36% and Belgium by 50%.The regionsWorkers in the north-west have been the hardest hit according to the TUC's latest employment study. The average hourly pay fell from £11.43 in 2007 to £10.52 in 2012 – an 8% real-terms drop. Newcastle's property market may be racing ahead, but in nearby Darlington, workers have seen their hourly real-pay rates fall by 16.2% in the last five years – a huge £75.94 real-terms cut in the weekly pay packets of full-time employees.Critics of the White House have said the lack of jobs has allowed the gap between rich and poor to widen and prevented ordinary workers from enjoying the recovery. Detroit sits at the head of a growing list of towns, districts and rust-belt cities that have filed for bankruptcy or declared that they are on the brink of collapse.The regional variations are big, with Austria, Germany, and Luxembourg boasting jobless rates of around 5%, while crisis-hit Greece and Spain have one in four out of work. For young jobless, the figure for Greece was 63% and for Spain 56%, with Croatia at the same level.While EU leaders are sanguine that the worst of the crisis is behind them and Europe is projected to achieve low growth over the next year, analysts and officials warn there the employment pickup will be slower. European Commission officials monitoring the Irish bailout, for example, predict that it job creation could be a decade away.Graduate employmentCheryl Pilbeam, MSc conservation, Surrey, UKI graduated into the heart of recession with a degree in biological sciences from Oxford in 2011. But because I felt like there wasn't really a job that I necessarily knew I wanted to do or could have gone in to, I thought an MSc in conservation and forest protection at Imperial was a better option. After my finishing my masters in ­September 2012, I applied for 20 to 30 what I thought were entry-level jobs. I ended up getting a six-month unpaid internship at a charity in London. I moved in with my mother and was very lucky that her home was a commutable distance to London. I was doing that part-time, so I applied for an internship in science policy at the British Ecological Society, paid minimum wage, which I did at the same time. I spent spare days looking for full time jobs. In February BES offered me a full-time job at £26,000 a year. There were over 100 applications and though I had direct experience of the role, they said I was lucky to get an interview.Geoff Widdison, BSc chemical engineering, United StatesIt's pretty clear that most engineering disciplines have excellent job prospects in the United States, provided that you're willing to relocate. This is ­especially true in the chemical field. I wound up moving to Houston for my current job. This city has chemical manufacturing on a scale I didn't think existed in the US any more. I've never before lived in a city with more than one chemical plant. In Houston, you'll see multiple plants on the same street.The economy certainly seems to be recovering, but the direct effects in my field tend to be limited. Back in 2008, there was a general feeling that we were lucky to have jobs, and even if you didn't like your position very much, you needed to stay where you were. Within a couple of years, though, that feeling more or less went away. I think the chemical industry in particular seems to be less affected by short-term economic swings.After the 2008 crash, a lot of companies seemed to be cancelling or delaying plans for future expansion and new operations. In the last couple of years, though, things seem to be in much better shape. I think companies are showing more confidence in the future, which has a big effect on the confidence of the employees.Carmela García Doval, biology graduate, MadridI'm a graduate student waiting to sit my viva. My scholarship came to an end in July and I'm now collecting unemployment benefit until they give me the date of my viva. When I finished my degree, in biology, I was lucky to get a scholarship for four years. Those who are starting now have to pay €4,500 to study for their masters before they can even ask for a scholarship. I was lucky to start under the old plan, or I would not have been able to afford to do any doctoral studies. The same goes for many friends of mine. Now I can't even think about the ­possibility of staying in Spain. The CSIC (National Science Research Council) cannot offer any new contracts. Universities are the same or worse. I am now planning to go abroad. It's much easier to find work abroad and I've already had several offers, as has my boyfriend, who studied the same as me. There seems to be plenty of work for Spanish scientists. We have not bought a return ticket and will not return if the system does not change. I don't mind whether I get a permanent position – I just want my work to be recognised and to be provided with adequate means to do it.Reporting team: Paul Hamilos, Shiv Malik, Angelique Chrisafis and Katie RogersEconomicsEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyGreen shootsPhillip InmanIan Traynor theguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

06 сентября 2013, 20:09

Chinese statistics bureau accuses county of faking economic data

Companies were reportedly pressured into boosting industrial output figures in LuliangChina's National Bureau of Statistics has accused a county government in southern China of faking economic data by coercing local companies to boost industrial output figures, state media have reported.Luliang county in southern Yunnan province pressured 28 local companies to report 6.34bn yuan (£665m) of industrial output last year, while according to "initial calculations" the true figure was less than half of that, the state newswire Xinhua reported on Thursday night."Companies complained that if they did not fraudulently report higher data their reports would be returned by local government departments," it said, citing a National Bureau of Statistics report. "They also said that fake reports would ensure they would enjoy favourable policies such as securing bank loans."The county government itself reported fake investment data, Xinhua added.Analysts say that phoney economic data is nearly ubiquitous in China, as officials are promoted based on their ability to present favourable numbers."You have an incentive system that encourages the falsification of data," said Fraser Howie, the co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China's Extraordinary Rise."We known that for literally decades provincial GDP figures have never totalled the national GDP figures – you have a fundamental mismatch of those numbers.""Anybody who's working with Chinese statistics runs up against problems, inconstancies, and incomplete data," Howie added. "There are just black holes in information gathering."Howie said that while false data was a long-running national problem, Chinese authorities may launch selective crackdowns every few months to demonstrate vigilance. "It could be that this is a particularly egregious case, it could be that there's political infighting, it could be that this leaked somewhere else first," he said.He drew a parallel to President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption drive, which critics have dismissed both as lip service and as a political purge."Its like the corruption thing – they're not going after nobody, but they're certainly not going after everybody," he said. "Yunnan is far away, nobody really goes there, nobody really cares. It's not like this happened right in Beijing, at the heart of things."ChinaAsia PacificJonathan Kaimantheguardian.com © 2013 Guardian News and Media Limited or its affiliated companies. All rights reserved. | Use of this content is subject to our Terms & Conditions | More Feeds

05 сентября 2013, 18:04

U.S. Silver Coin Sales Top 2012- Record Store Of Value Buying

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,391.75, EUR 1,054.60 and GBP 891.06 per ounce.Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,403.75, EUR 1,065.63 and GBP 899.67 per ounce.   Gold fell $17.90 or 1.27% yesterday, closing at $1,393.90/oz. Silver slid $0.73 or 3.01%, closing at $23.53. Platinum fell $36.72 or 2.4% to $1,492.28/oz, while palladium slipped $20.53 or 2.9% to $696.27/oz. Everything a Family Office needs to know about investing in gold. Download the The Essential Family Office Guide to Investing In Gold. Gold edged off again, on the prospect of a decrease in quantitative easing and the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. military action in Syria. The nonfarm payrolls number on Friday is critical and there is also a private report due out today that may show U.S. employment has increased. This all points to a clear decision on tapering at the FOMC meeting later this month. Silver in U.S. Dollars, 5 Year - (GoldCore) Sales of American Eagle silver coins by the U.S. Mint this year surpassed the total for all of 2012 as store of value buyers  buy silver at a record pace due to continuing inflation and systemic risk . About 33.75 million ounces of the silver coins were sold so far in 2013, compared with 33.74 million in all of 2012 according to data on the mint’s website as reported by Bloomberg. In January, sales reached an all-time high of 7.498 million, and averaged 3.65 million a month since then as demand heads closer to the annual record of 39.868 million reached in 2011. Silver prices surged into a bull market last month and have gained 29% from a 34-month low on June 28, sparked by demand for precious metals as an alternative asset.  Holdings in exchange traded funds backed by silver rose to a record 20,082 metric tons on August 30 and are up 5.9% so far in 2012. Bets on higher prices for the precious metal advanced for the three straight weeks, data from U.S. Commodity Futures Trading show. Imports by China, the world’s biggest consumer after the U.S., rose for three straight months through July. The U.S. Mint suspended sales of silver coins for more than a week in January because of a lack of inventory. Sales of gold and silver coins may rise to a record this year if demand continues at the current pace, Richard Peterson, acting director of the mint, said in an interview on June 5th. The premium charged by dealers surged to 25% in April, the highest since 2008, after the gold and silver price crash. Gold Silver Ratio, 5 Year - (GoldCore) Silver reached a 31-year high of $49.845 an ounce in April 2011 after Lehman Brothers collapsed and as global central banks expanded their balance sheets, boosting the precious metal’s appeal as a hedge against systemic risk, economic collapse and inflation. Silver remains well below its record inflation adjusted high in 1980, it’s important real record high of over $140/oz.  Since 2003, we have consistently said that silver was likely to surpass its real high in the coming years. The gold silver ratio is likely to trend lower and revert to its long term average and its geological ratio of 15 to 1 as a huge amount of silver has been used in industrial applications in recent years. Silver above it’s real record high in 1980 seems likely due to increased industrial, investment and, potentially most importantly, store of value demand for what remains a very rare precious metal in a time of universal currency debasement. Everything a Family Office needs to know about investing in gold. Download the The Essential Family Office Guide to Investing In Gold.