Чистая прибыль нидерландской банковско-страховой корпорации ING Group N.V. по итогам первого квартала 2017 года составила 1,143 миллиарда евро, сократившись в годовом выражении на 9,1%, говорится в отчетности группы.
Just two work days after we reported that Home Capital had already used up half of its C$2 billion emergency "lifeline" credit facility (yielding 22.5%) and was seeking additional emergency funding, on Monday Canada's most troubled alt-mortgage lender provided a liquidity update in which it said that it had drawn an addition C$400 million on its loan, leaving just C$600 million available. At the same time, the company confirmed that the bank run at subsidiary Home Trust has failed to slowdown, and as of May 8 "deposit balances are expected to be approximately $192 million." According to the latest data, another 50% of deposits have been pulled in the past week, and are now down over 90% since March 28. Additionally, the company announced that its all important Total Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) deposits, including Oaken and broker GICs, stood at $12.64 billion as at May 5, 2017 compared with $12.86 billion as at April 28, 2017. Oaken savings accounts stood at $167 million as at May 5, 2017 compared $222 million as at April 28, 2017. As a reminder, Home Capital's GICs are the final lifeline that keeps it alive: as they mature, unless replaced with frash liquidity, the company's day of reckoning gets dangerously close. Home Capital also said that as of the close of Friday, its total liquid assets stood at $1.160 billion, a number which is shrinking rapidly with each passing day. In an amusing addition, the company said that "its advisers continue to work towards seeking lower cost sustainable funding solutions and to evaluate strategic alternatives to solidify and strengthen its successful mortgage origination platform. " Good luck with that. Full statement below: Home Capital Group Inc. (“The Company” TSX: HCG) today announced that it has drawn down a total of $1.4 billion from its $2 billion credit line, the terms of which were announced by the Company on April 27, 2017. The Company and its advisers continue to work towards seeking lower cost sustainable funding solutions and to evaluate strategic alternatives to solidify and strengthen its successful mortgage origination platform. In addition, the Company announced the suspension of its quarterly dividend to prudently manage liquidity. The Company’s existing mortgage portfolio continues to perform well. The Company’s liquid assets stood at $1.160 billion as of end of day May 5, 2017. Home Trust’s High Interest Savings Account (HISA) deposit balances are expected to be approximately $192 million on Monday, May 8, 2017 after the settlement of transactions that took place on Friday, May 5, 2017. Total Guaranteed Investment Certificate (GIC) deposits, including Oaken and broker GICs, stood at $12.64 billion as at May 5, 2017 compared with $12.86 billion as at April 28, 2017. Oaken savings accounts stood at $167 million as at May 5, 2017 compared $222 million as at April 28, 2017. Home Trust’s GICs and HISA deposits are eligible for Canada Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage. In a separate release, Home Capital announced that it was adding 3 new members to its board as it was continuing “governance renewal process,” adding Claude Lamoureux, former Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan CEO/co-founder of Canadian Coalition for Good Governance, Paul Haggis, former Omers CEO, and Sharon Sallows to board. HCG also appointed Brenda Eprile board chair; Eprile joined board as an independent director in 2016; replaces Kevin Smith, who remains on board as independent director. HCG confirmed that as reported previously, William Falk stepping down. Finally, HCG set the annual meeting for June 29 in Toronto. It is sure to be an exciting affair.
Is ING Groep a great pick from the value investor's perspective right now? Read on to know more.
The relationship between interest rates and insurance companies is linear and straightforward, meaning the higher the rate, the greater the growth.
Despite its widely telegraphed $8.5 billion public offering with another $2 billion expected to be raised from asset sales, Germany's biggest lender is down sharply this morning as much as 6.9% (currently 6.1% lower) as Wall Street analysts dig through the details of the bank's latest massive restructuring, which as reported yesterday seeks to undo many of the changes implemented by CEO John Cryan over the past two years (and which will lead to an 80% reduction in the bank's 2016 bonus pool). The key concern, as some analysts most notably Citi have noted, is that DB's attempt to shore up capital may not be enough with the bank potentially needing another €2 billion to a grand total of €12.8 billion, while some have pointed out that DB may have opened a Pandora's Box for other, similarly undercapitalized European banks. Here are some of the early reactions this morning from a wide selection of sellside analysts: Citigroup (sell/high risk) In a worst -case scenario Deutsche Bank may need EU12.8b in additional capital instead of EU10b that’s currently planned Leverage ratio is the key capital constraint, saw 2018 leverage ratio at 4.0% before announcement of latest capital increase, says that’s a shortfall of ~EU5.8b to leverage ratio target of 4.5% Says that estimate included EU1.8b from successful sale of 70% stake in Postbank Also Deutsche has announced additional revamp costs of EU2b New cost target for 2018 adj. costs is still EU22b, but now includes reintegration of Postbank that will cost about EU3b; target for 2021 costs is EU21b Plan to keep all of Postbank and IPO 25% stake in asset management will boost analysts’ estimates for EPS by 2% Says rights issue will push CET1 ratio to 14.1% which is above the company’s target of more than 13% and above SREP requirement of 12.25% Goldman Sachs (neutral) Says the management actions as necessary and sufficient to decisively conclude the capital debate and thus have an overall positive impact on the financial stability of the group. That said, expect the market to scrutinize implied dilution and ongoing profitability challenges. Need for capital: known and necessary. The fact that DBK needed to improve its capital position was widely understood – we had estimated DBK’s capital shortfall at €6.7 bn (most recently in our January 27 report: “Deutsche Bank: Franchise damage, capital gap and need to detail recap path”). Therefore, the announced recap action, in itself, will not come as a surprise. Quantum of cap hike: high, but puts an end to capital debate. The total targeted increase in capital is ~€10 bn, consisting of an €8 bn rights issue and >€2 bn from planned asset disposals. In our view, the quantum of capital targeted is sufficient for this (long running) capital debate to conclude. Strategic and profitability debates will continue. DBK has been faced with two basic challenges: (1) its capital position, which has now been addressed; and (2) lack of a high-ROE platform, which continues. In this context, we view the 10% “normalized” ROTE target as ambitious. Morgan Stanley Details of the strategic plan will be key from here New cost target looks tough at first glance, is 5% better than MS’s estimate for EU23.1b that it considered optimistic and 11% better than consensus Dividend plan is signal of confidence in rehabilitation of business, capital position Reversal of negative flows in Asset Management in past 2 months is encouraging Litigation is not over yet with long list of smaller cases outstanding Management needs to address "credible integration of Postbank," provide clarity on revamp of Investment Banking and new CIB portfolio, stabilize outflows and restore confidence in Wealth and asset management businesses Equinet (buy) Capital increase is unexpected, should end investor debate about low capitalization Holding on to Postbank makes sense strategically, also given low valuation in current market Partial IPO of Deutsche Asset Management is negative as it means bank is giving up some of its stable business with low capital consumption New financial targets look achievable, unchanged ROTE target of at least 10% is more ambitious given higher capital base Higher capital ratios, low cost base should be well received by investors JPMorgan (neutral) Sees economic earnings dilution of 23% from capital increase of EU8b, or ~687.5m shares Sees that partly compensated by ~17% earnings benefit from lower costs Assumed minority stake in IPO in Asset Management is ~4% earnings dilutive All-in-all sees 2018 earnings dilution at 11% Sees 2018 fully-loaded CET1 ratio at 14.1%, if additional EU40b in Basel 4 Risk Weighted Assets are included, pro-forma 2018 CET1 seen at 12.8% New cost targets are a "material improvement" on old targets Cost details matter, including divisional breakdown, how much hinges on agreement of works council, what impact they’ll have on revenue Kepler Cheuvreux (not rated) Sees new market price of EU16.7%/share given EU8b rights issue at likely discount of 39% vs Friday’s close for price of EU11.65/share with issuance of 637.5m new shares CET1 ratio of 14.1% post capital increase plus EU2b in capital accretion over 2 years "seems solid" All-in-all new financial targets see profitability target of ~10% post-tax ROTE vs former target of >1 0% post-tax ROTE Says revenues and/or increased restructuring costs seem damp financial results Notes positive developments in terms of adj. costs of less than EU21b including Postbank Finally, as WSJ writes, in an interesting sales desk note to clients over the weekend, Bernstein Research, which does not officially cover Deutsche Bank, said candidly that Deutsche has opened the Pandora’s Box and European banks are more than an ocean apart from their American counterparts, which are much healthier. Bernstein wrote: IS DBK DOING THE RIGHT THING? Of course it is. But the right thing in banks doesn’t mean you’re a “buy”. Cost control (esp at bonus time) was the right thing for shareholders. Interesting, and if you recall, they also didn’t clean up in FICC in 4Q – something the world and its wife had expected them to do. Remember cleaning up in FICC is like going to the casino: even if the odds are heavily in your favour (which they were in 4Q) you still need to bet big, and this consumes RWAs and capital – which they don’t have. DBK’s in retrenchment mode and if these headlines are correct, it cements a core view amongst many that DBK’s capital bridge really can not be met by organic earnings alone. More importantly, European bank tailwinds in the past 9 months are being met with capital raises where needed. All at a time when JPM is close to paying 100% of its earnings. We’re world’s apart. The biggest bank in Germany, the country that’s the biggest subsidiser of the European project, the home of the European regulator, is raising equity. For everyone else, what’s their get-out-of-jail free card now? Until now, the counter-argument will always have been that DBK was short – so pick on your own country’s banks before you pick on mine! Well that doesn’t work anymore. Whilst it’s easy to be sensationalist here, it’s definitely worth thinking about what responses the more levered plays (French/CBK/Weaker Southern Europeans) will have now. On balance, I don’t think we quite head in such an extreme direction so quickly – but the divergence between US and European Financials becomes even greater. Tailwinds in Europe are much more likely to be met with raises… Source: Bloomberg, primary sources
Confirming last week's report of an imminent share sale, on Sunday the biggest German lender announced it would raise €8 billion ($8.5 billion) in new capital through a rights offering sale of 687.5 million new shares, and sell parts of its asset management business in its latest attempt to shore capital following €8 billion in losses in the past two years after a major operational and balance sheet restructuring was launched by CEO John Cryan in 2015, settling misconduct investigations and scaling back capital-intensive debt-trading businesses. The bank also announced that CFO Marcus Schenck, 51, and Christian Sewing, who oversees wealth management and consumer banking, would become co-deputy CEOs. The company will find a new CFO “in due course.” “A strong capital base is essential if we’re to succeed in charting this strategy,” Cryan wrote in a letter to employees. The share sale will “remove a major source of uncertainty. That should make us significantly more attractive for our clients.” The timing of the share sale takes advantage of the recent resurgence in Deutsche Bank’s share price, which has almost doubled from multiyear lows near €10 in September. The shares closed Friday at €19.14 in European trading. Last year, corporate clients and hedge funds pulled balances and other business from Deutsche Bank over concerns about its legal costs and weak capital position. Deutsche Bank on Friday night confirmed investor expectations that it needs a capital injection, saying it was doing “preparatory work” for a share sale and considering other strategic moves. The announcement marks the bank's third time to tap capital markets since early 2013. Since taking over in mid-2015, Mr. Cryan said he wanted to avoid selling shares, which will hurt existing shareholders, however it was concerns over the bank's capitalization, and at time liquidty, that prompted a vicious selloff in August and September of 2016, sending DB's shares to all time lows on concerns the bank's RMBS settlement with the DOJ would drain the company's funding to dangerously low levels. According to the bank, the share sale would boost its common equity Tier 1 ratio to 14.1% and set a new target of “comfortably above” 13%. The measure stood at 11.9% at the end of 2016, shy of the then-target of 12.5% for the end of 2018. In an amusing twist, during a media call, DB CEO said the Bank hopes to return to attractive dividend ratio from 2018, suggesting that while the bank is raising capital now, it hopes to return it back to shareholders next year. As part of the restructuring, the firm plans to cut more than €2 billion of costs from the €24.1 billion in adjusted expenses it had last year. The bank will cut another 1 billion euros by 2021. It expects €2 billion of severance and restructuring costs, most of which will come over the next two years. Deutsche Bank also said it would reconfigure its business structure, combining its global markets and its corporate and investment bank, reversing a separation of the investment bank a year and a half ago. The bank said it will keep its Postbank consumer division and still aims to reduce total costs to €22 billion by 2018. The megabank also said it will sell a minority stake in its asset management unit through an initial public offering in the next two years. That, along with asset disposals at the investment bank, will help raise another 2 billion euros of capital. The bank will propose a dividend in May of 0.19 euros per share. As the WSJ notes, Cryan has tried to preserve capital by cutting costs, axing employee bonuses and canceling annual shareholder dividend payouts. But those steps haven’t done enough. Cryan’s hopes were overwhelmed by multibillion-dollar legal bills, toughening capital regulations and sagging profits in key businesses ranging from German retail banking to deal-advising and trading. The bank said it expects around €2 billion in restructuring and severance costs in connection with its plans. On Sunday afternoon, after a meeting of the supervisory board, Deutsche Bank also said as expected that it plans to sell a minority piece of its asset-management business via a public sale of shares. The plan is part of a bid to stabilize that business after it has suffered a long spate of asset declines. Selling a stake would dent the advantage Deutsche Bank gains from the asset-management division’s profits, which are predictable compared with more-volatile investment-banking and trading profits. A stake sale would allow the lender to hold on to a business that Deutsche Bank officials including Mr. Cryan have praised as an important part of the bank. A partial float could help the bank once again expand the division while boosting its capital incrementally, some investors say. Deutsche Bank also said Sunday it plans to fold its German retail-banking unit, Postbank, back into its ongoing operations. That is a reversal of costly plans announced in 2015 to separate the business in preparation for a spinoff. The bank was unable to find buyers willing to pay an attractive price for the unit in a crowded market where low interest rates have hurt retail-banking profits. As part of Sunday's announcement, DB said that Jeff Urwin, who led the investment banking division, will retire from the management board after a transition period, according to Bloomberg. Cryan will take direct oversight for the U.S. operations, and the firm is recombining its investment banking and trading units after splitting the two in 2015. Schenck will run the combined unit with Garth Ritchie, who currently leads the trading division. While the stock has largely priced in the recent share offering, made possible by the recent near double in the stock price, among the other winners of today's announcement are holders of the bank's Contingent Converts, which has soared from a low of 70 during the selling panic in September to just shy of par. The bank also announced the following new financial targets: 2018 Adjusted Costs of approximately EUR 22 billion and a further reduction to approximately EUR 21 billion by 2021, both include Postbank’s Adjusted Costs Post-tax RoTE of approximately 10% in a normalized operating environment Targeting a competitive dividend payout ratio for fiscal year 2018 and thereafter Fully loaded CET1 ratio to be comfortably above 13% Leverage ratio of 4.5% In addition to the capital raise, operational restructuring and fine-tuned projections, Deutsche Bank also provided an update on current trading activity. The bank said it "has made a positive start in the first two trading months of 2017." Among the highlights: Global Markets has performed strongly against a weaker comparable period in 2016 with Debt Sales & Trading revenues up over 30% while Equities Sales & Trading was flat year on year. Corporate Finance year to date performance was strong with revenues up over 15% year on year reflecting positive momentum in primary markets that drove significant increases in debt and equity issuance. Global Transaction Banking saw resilience in its client franchise, but single digit lower revenue performance in a macro environment that remains challenging and from the consequences of intentional reductions in client perimeter during 2016. In Private Wealth & Commercial Clients (PW&CC), revenues were flat versus the comparable period in 2016 as the impact of low interest rates was mainly offset by positive developments in investment products supported by asset and deposit inflows. In Postbank, operating performance was flat, but reported revenues were slightly down given the absence of one-off gains in the prior year and weaker hedging results. Deutsche Asset Management had a modest improvement in revenues as well as the reversal of negative asset flows seen in 2016. DB announced an analyst event will take place tomorrow, March 6, at 14:00 GMT in London to detail these actions and updated targets.
Following unconfirmed sources earlier warning about a major capital raise for the world's most sysetmically dangerous bank, Bloomberg reports that Deutsche Bank AG is nearing a plan to boost capital by more than 10 billion euros ($10.6 billion) through an equity offering and the partial sale of its asset management unit, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. The measures, which executives may review as soon as this weekend, would be a way for the bank to boost capital buffers instead of by selling its Postbank unit, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans haven’t been announced. Deutsche Bank is now leaning toward reintegrating the consumer banking business, the people said. It’s also studying management changes, including a new role for Chief Financial Officer Marcus Schenck, some of the people said. The firm is weighing recombining its investment banking and trading divisions, with Schenck gaining some oversight of the business, some of the people said. The supervisory board is scheduled to meet for two days starting March 16 to discuss potential measures, three people said earlier Friday. The bounce back from the earlier drop has been erased...
After some strength in Europe overnight, Deutsche Bank shares are tumbling this morning after reports that the world's most systemically dangerous bank plans to review strategic options over coming weeks that include a capital increase and the partial sale of its asset management business. As Bloomberg reports, the supervisory board is scheduled to meet on March 16 and March 17 to discuss potential measures, according to three people with knowledge of the plans, who asked not to be identified because they weren’t authorized to speak publicly. A stock sale would help Germany’s biggest bank replenish buffers that may come under pressure if it decides to reintegrate its Postbank subsidiary, said the people. No decision has been made on whether to sell its own stock or hold an initial public offering of the asset management unit, said the people. A majority of the supervisory board favors reintegrating Postbank, accompanied by a capital increase, one of the people said. A spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank declined to comment. Chief Financial Officer Marcus Schenck last month said the lender would only sell Postbank if a deal provided “meaningful capital relief” to Deutsche Bank. Deutsche Bank’s management board earlier planned to wait for the completion of new banking standards that could force the bank to hold yet more capital, including for Postbank, before finalizing fresh measures. After failing to deliver a deal in early January, global regulators meeting at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision once again left the table this week without an agreement, fueling uncertainty over the timing. At 11.9 percent at the end of 2016, the bank’s common equity Tier 1 ratio is still 60 basis points shy of its end-2018 target. With revenue under pressure from low interest rates, Deutsche Bank is also trying to build capital up organically by improving profitability. The lender has withdrawn from several countries and it recently announced that it will drastically cut bonuses for about a quarter of its staff.
Some of hedge fund billionaire George Soros' short positions dating back to 2012 were published on the Dutch financial market regulator’s website this week due to "human error" according to the regulator AFM, according to Bloomberg. Dutch bank ING is among the positions exposed and its stock price is tumbling... As Bloomberg notes, the short positions, bets on a stock declining, were “between 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent,” of shares outstanding in the companies shorted, AFM spokesman Ward Snijders said by phone on Thursday. The Dutch regulator publishes shorts of 0.5 percent or higher on its website on a daily basis. The smaller amounts were posted by mistake, he said. The Financial Times earlier reported that some of the positions, including bets against Dutch banks, including ING Groep NV, appeared briefly on the website on Tuesday evening. ING declined to comment on Thursday. Short positions, which are typically closely guarded, in Deutsche Bank AG jumped when it was revealed in June that Soros had bet that the stock would fall after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union. The German bank fell 14 percent on the first day after the ballot. The Dutch regulator’s spokesman couldn’t disclose whether there has been contact with Soros following Tuesday’s error. A spokesman for Soros didn’t immediately respond to an e-mail seeking comment.
Подробнее читайте на нашем сайте www.oilru.com
На прошлой неделе евро достиг минимума 1,0364 против доллара, самого низкого уровня с августа 2003 года, когда он торговался на отметке 1,0357. Укрепление доллара – ключевой фактор, так как инвесторы считают, что ФРС возьмет курс на повышение ставки в 2017 году. С другой стороны, ЕЦБ только что объявил о продлении программы количественного смягчения, в рамках которой на рынок будут влиты дополнительные 540 млрд евро. Аналитики ING считают, что паритет доллара и евро уже виден на горизонте, учитывая растущую инфляцию в Европе. "Американская экономика близка к повышению ставки и устойчивой инфляции в 2%, так что это лишь усилит риски для паритета доллара и евро. Можно ожидать некоторого укрепления до отметок 1,0450-1,0500, однако, движение к паритету – лишь вопрос времени", - отмечается в записке. Аналитическая группа из Unicredit заявила, что, несмотря на распродажу евро, малые объемы торгов на Рождество могут свидетельствовать о падении.
Расхождение в денежно-кредитной политике между США и Европой приведет к паритету между долларом и евро, считают аналитики банка ING Group.
Расхождение в денежно-кредитной политике между США и Европой приведет к паритету между долларом и евро, считают аналитики банка ING Group.
На заре 2015/начала 2016 я уже писал, что экономическая ситуация в России будет только улучшаться, ВВП в 2016 упадёт не столь сильно как в 2015, а в 2017 будет рост, о чём свидетельствовали данные МВФ, Всемирного банка и других авторитетных организаций. Но некоторые упорно нагоняли пессимизм речами о том, что всё будет только хуже, что экономика порвана в клочья. И вообще, мол, нас ждёт тотальная изоляция. Посмотрим, что на сегодяшний день представляет «изолента» вокруг России. Пруфы специально подобрал из западных/либеральных источников, чтобы показать непредвзятость своих суждений. ----------------------------------------- Bloomberg отметил возвращение в Россию миллиардных западных инвестиций Forbes, 23.11.2016 http://www.forbes.ru/news/333549-bloomberg-otmetil-vozvrashchenie-v-rossiyu-milliardnykh-zapadnykh-investitsii ----------------------------------------- Немецкий бизнес возвращается в Россию, не смотря на угрозу новых санкций The Wall Street Journal, 08.12.2016 http://www.wsj.com/articles/german-firms-place-new-bets-on-russia-1481193003 ----------------------------------------- Климатический рекорд. Портфельные инвесторы устремились на российский рынок Коммерсант, 09.12.2016 http://kommersant.ru/doc/3168278 ----------------------------------------- Немецкие инвестиции в Россию достигли рекордных показателей Spiegel, 21.10.2016 http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsche-firmen-investieren-stark-in-russland-a-1117752.html ----------------------------------------- И это лишь беглый взгляд обывателя, думаю можно найти с десяток таких новостей, но лично мне уже стало понятно, что изоляция, которой нас так пугали и продолжают пугать — оборвалась. Теперь, что касается экономики: ----------------------------------------- Всемирный банк: экономика России постепенно медленно продвигается вперед 9 ноября 2016В 2016 году ожидается, что экономика сократится на 0,6%, в 2017 году — вырастет на 1,5%, а в 2018 году – на 1,7 на фоне дальнейшего прогнозируемого восстановления цен на углеводороды, что окажет положительное влияние на внутренний спрос, говорится в новом «Докладе об экономике России», представленном сегодня Всемирным банком в Москве.http://www.vsemirnyjbank.org/ru/news/press-release/2016/11/09/russian-economy-inches-forward-says-world-bank ----------------------------------------- Отчёт МВФ по состоянию на 29 ноября 2016Russia’s economy has absorbed the shocks from oil and sanctions, and there are signs of a nascent turnaround, although economic activity will still contract by 0.6 percent this year (спад экономики на 0.6% в 2016, прим. перевод.) The recovery of the Russian economy should be on a stronger footing in 2017, with the economy forecasted to expand by 1.1 percent (рост экономики в 2017 году на 1.1%, прим. перевод).http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/11/29/PR16529-Russian-Federation-IMF-Staff-Concludes-Visit ----------------------------------------- Moody's оценило рост экономики России в 2017 году Реальный ВВП России вырастет на 1,5 процента в 2017 году, тогда как в текущем будет зафиксирован спад на один процент Отчёт от 12 сентября 2016:Asset quality will see improvements next year as Russia pulls out of recession: Moody's forecasts that the 1% economic contraction in 2016 will be followed by a modest 1.5% real GDP growth in 2017, which should bolster corporate credit profiles.https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Russian-banks-asset-quality-bottoms-out-as-economy-looks--PR_354920 ----------------------------------------- Fitch улучшило прогноз по кредитному рейтингу России 14 октября 2016 Международное агентство Fitch улучшило прогноз по кредитному рейтингу РФ с «негативного» до «стабильного» и оставило его на инвестиционном уровне BBB-. Примечание для любителей сравнивать Россию с недоразвитыми африканскими старнами: На такой же ступени, что и рейтинг России, находятся рейтинги от Fitch таких стран, как Турция, Румыния (страна Евросоюза), Венгрия (страна Евросоюза), Индонезия. https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1013171 ----------------------------------------- Также нашёл отличную сводную таблицу на сайте http://www.factosphere.com/macro/gdp/forecasts. В ней указаны прогнозы по ВВП России от ведущих банков, аналитических агентств и подобных организаций.Russian GDP Growth Forecasts Datasheet Institution / Company Updated 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 International Organisations International Monetary Fund (IMF) 29.11.2016 -0.6 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.5 The World Bank 09.11.2016 -0.6 1.5 1.7 - - OECD 28.11.2016 -0.8 0.8 1.0 - - OPEC 05.12.2016 -0.6 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.0 UN Development Policy and Analysis Division (DESA) 12.05.2016 -1.9 0.6 - - - European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) 03.11.2016 -0.6 1.2 - - - European Commission 09.11.2016 -1.0 0.6 0.8 - - Eurasian Development Bank 14.10.2016 -0.7 0.3 1.2 - - State Authorities Ministry of Economic Development of Russia (baseline scenario) 25.11.2016 -0.6 1.0 1.7 2.1 - Ministry of Finance of Russia (baseline scenario) 28.10.2016 -0.6 0.6 1.7 2.1 - Central Bank of Russia (baseline scenario) 01.12.2016 -0.5 ÷ -0.7 0.5 ÷ 1.0 1.5 ÷ 2.0 1.5 ÷ 2.0 - Rating Agencies Moody’s 12.09.2016 -1.0 1.5 - - - Fitch Ratings 14.10.2016 -0.5 1.3 2.0 - - S&P 23.11.2016 -1.0 1.4 1.7 1.7 - Dagong rating agency (China) 22.09.2016 -0.8 1.0 - - - Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) 12.09.2016 -1.5 -0.1 0.5 0.7 0.9 Results of Expert Polls Higher School of Economics (experts’ poll) 28.11.2016 -0.7 1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 Reuters Polls (consensus forecast) 05.12.2016 -0.5 1.1 - - - RosBusinessConsulting (consensus forecast) 28.12.2015 -0.2 - - - - Vedomosti Newspaper Polls (consensus forecast) 24.12.2015 -0.5 - - - - Interfax Polls 30.07.2016 -0.8 - - - - FocusEconomics Polls (consensus forecast) 29.11.2016 -0.6 1.2 - - - Bloomberg Polls 27.09.2016 -0.9 1.2 1.5 - - The Economist Polls 12.11.2016 -0.8 1.3 - - - International Economic Research Institutions The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) 10.11.2016 -0.8 0.8 1.8 - - DIW Berlin 14.09.2016 -0.8 1.2 1.9 - - CESifo Group Munich 29.09.2016 -0.8 1.1 1.7 - - Kiel Institute for the World Economy 08.09.2016 -0.8 1.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 Halle Institute for Economic Research 09.06.2016 -1.2 1.2 - - - BOFIT (Bank of Finland) 29.09.2016 -1.0 1.0 1.5 - - German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat) 02.11.2016 -1.4 1.2 - - - International Banks, Investment Banks and Corporate Players Economist Intelligence Unit 16.11.2016 -0.8 0.7 1.1 1.4 1.6 PwC 14.06.2016 -1.9 0.9 1.5 - - Morgan Stanley 28.11.2016 -0.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.8 JP Morgan 21.09.2016 -0.6 1.1 - - - Bank of America Merrill Lynch (baseline scenario) 03.10.2016 -0.5 1.1 - - - Deutsche Bank 24.01.2016 -0.7 0.4 - - - Citigroup 11.01.2016 -0.5 - - - - HSBC 01.10.2015 -2.0 - - - - ING Group 09.02.2016 -1.7 1.1 - - - Barclays 08.02.2016 -1.0 - - - - UniCredit Group 21.01.2016 -0.9 - - - - Raiffeisen Bank 28.09.2016 -0.5 1.0 1.5 - - Societe Generale 15.01.2016 -1.0 - - - - Nomura Securities 22.01.2016 -1.0 - - - - BNP Paribas 11.10.2016 0.0 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.5 CommerzBank 02.12.2016 -0.6 1.3 2.0 - - ABN Amro 21.01.2016 0.5 - - - - Allianz Group 28.10.2016 -0.6 1.5 - - - Euler Hermes 18.03.2016 -0.9 1.0 - - - Berenberg Bank 21.11.2016 -0.6 1.0 1.8 - - Danske Bank 20.10.2016 -0.6 1.2 - - - Nordea 06.09.2016 -1.0 1.1 1.3 - - SEB Group 22.11.2016 -0.6 1.0 1.5 - - Goldman Sachs 08.04.2016 0.5 - - - - Deka Group 10.11.2016 -0.8 1.1 - - - DNB 19.02.2016 -1.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 - Credit Suisse 06.06.2016 -0.3 1.7 - - - Wells Fargo 09.09.2016 0.0 1.8 2.1 - - Rabobank 02.12.2016 -0.7 +0.9 - - - COFACE 14.10.2016 -1.0 0.8 - - - Лень считать, но в среднем можно прикинуть по данной таблице, что по прогнозам авторитетных организаций рост ВВП России в 2017 году примерно составит 1-2%. Так что смело делаю вывод — экономика России не порвана в клочья, поэтому любители гнать сплошной негатив на нашу страну должны утереться, поскольку информация целиком взята из западных источников, а не с телевизора, раши тудей и госсми. И кстати, я не считаю, что проблем в стране нет. Я просто разоблачаю вопли тех злопыхателей и горе-аналитиков, которые говорят, что в принципе в России всё плохо и будет только хуже. Как видите, ведущие западные издания, банки и рейтинговые агентства так не считают.
Submitted by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, Less than a week after India’s surprise move to scrap its highest denomination cash notes, another front in the War on Cash has intensified down under in Australia. Yesterday, banking giant UBS proposed that eliminating Australia’s $100 and $50 bills would be “good for the economy and good for the banks.” (How convenient that a bank would propose something that’s good for banks!) This isn’t the first time that the financial establishment has pushed for a cashless society in Australia (or anywhere else). In September 2015, Australian bank Westpac published its “Cash Free Report”, suggesting that the country would become cashless by 2022. In July 2016, Australian payments firm Tyro published an enormously self-serving blog post touting the benefits of a cashless society and saying, “it’s only a matter of time.” Most notably, two days ago, Citibank (yes, THAT Citibank) announced that it was going cashless at some of its Australian branches. The media and political establishments have chimed in as well. In February of this year, the Sydney Morning Herald released a series of articles, some of which were written by officials from Australia’s Department of the Treasury, suggesting that eliminating cash will “save billions”, and that “moving to a cashless society is the next step for the Australian dollar”. This is how it works. The government, media, banks, and even academia have formed a single, unified chorus to push this idea out to consumers that “cashless” is good for everyone. And it’s happening across the planet, from Australia to India to Europe to North America. They’re partially right. Going cashless probably will save a lot of money; paper currency is costly to transport in large quantities due to the need for security. It’s also accurate to suggest that going cashless will be “good for the banks.” As UBS pointed out yesterday, “de-monetizing” Australia’s $50 and $100 bills would force anyone holding those notes to deposit them back in the banking system. Bank deposits would rise as a result, and consequently, so would bank profits. Governments would benefit from a cashless society because all savings would be in the banking system, and they have full regulatory control over the banks. This means that your politicians would have more control over your savings and fewer obstacles to impose capital controls or engage in Civil Asset Forfeiture. Even policy wonk academics would have a rare opportunity to take their lousy theories and PhD dissertations for a test drive. Everyone benefits from a cashless society… except for you. For individuals, cash still has plenty of important advantages. Cash is one of the few remaining options for financial privacy that doesn’t create a permanent record of every purchase or transaction you make. It’s also an easy way to reduce your exposure to risks in the broader financial system. Think about it– the banking system is full of institutions that never miss an opportunity to demonstrate they cannot be trusted with our money. Hardly a month goes by without some major banking scandal; they’re caught colluding on exchange rates, manipulating interest rates, fraudulently establishing fake accounts without customer consent (and then charging us fees on top of that). It’s disgraceful. In addition, bank safety is far from certain. In many banking systems across the world (especially in Europe right now), banks have precariously low levels of capital and are already suffering the effects of negative interest rates. Even in the United States, banks routinely employ very clever accounting tricks to conceal their true financial condition. There’s also the fact that, the moment you make a deposit at a bank, it’s no longer your money. It becomes the bank’s money. And they can do with it as they please, whether it’s freezing you out of your account or making idiotic investments with minimal reserve requirements. You have no say in the matter. As a bank depositor, you’re nothing more than an unsecured creditor of a financial institution which may or may not allow you to withdraw your own savings. If you don’t believe me, take a trip down to your bank and ask to withdraw $25,000. See how quickly they treat you like a criminal terrorist. Bottom line, conventional banking is not risk-free. And holding cash is one way to reduce that risk. Cash essentially eliminates the middleman between you and your savings… at least, the portion of your savings that can be easily exchanged for goods and services in the economy. Cash is a pitiful store of value over the long-term. Precious metals and other real assets are much better alternatives. But we still can’t walk into Starbucks and pay for a cup of coffee with a quarter-ounce silver coin. So until that day comes, cash remains an asset that you’ll want to hold. Just make sure you don’t go overboard. The War on Cash is very real. So if you have more than a couple of months worth of living expenses, you’re taking on unnecessary risk. Also, keep the denominations low. As the case with India shows (see the photo), governments have no compunction about violating the public trust with immediate effect and without warning. So if you’re in the US, don’t keep a mountain of $100 bills in your safe. Keep 10s, 20s, and 50s. If you’re in Europe, definitely avoid the 500 and 200 euro notes, opt for 20s and 50s.
Издание не исключает, что в Кремле началась борьба между лагерями "силовиков" и либералов.