Солсбери, графство Уилтшир, Англия Британский фонд Investec Asset Management, по данным терминала Bloomberg и февральского отчета компании, в своем портфеле располагает крупными инвестициями в российские облигации федерального займа с купоном 7.7% и читать далее…
Update 3: Some more soundbites out of Russia, via Reuters: RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS BRITISH GOVERNMENT HAS OPTED FOR FURTHER ESCALATION BY EXPELLING RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS BRITISH PM STATEMENT IS A FLAGRANT PROVOCATION RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS BRITISH GOVERNMENT HAS CHOSEN CONFRONTATION WITH RUSSIA * * * Update 2: The head of the Upper House of Parliament in Russia has called the expulsion of diplomats a "provocation". He has promised Russia will react in a "fast, tough and reciprocal way". Separately, Angela Merkel said that the EU is united on Russia but must keep talking to Russia. The German chancellor said: "We take the findings of the British government very seriously ... We will present a common European view here. "Nonetheless, I say we can't break off all contacts now. We must still talk with the Russians despite all differences of opinion." Julian Assange has also chimed in: Theresa May is in a difficult position. If the Kremlin was knowingly behind the claimed nerve agent attack on Sergei and Yulia Skripal then it is likely designed to provoke a UK response with Russian moves already gamed out. Only a highly creative response can avoid such a trap. — Julian Assange ⌛ (@JulianAssange) March 14, 2018 Whilst expelling suspected intelligence agents is showy deterrent (such agents apply pressure towards their government to not engage in action that causes them to booted out) it also has high costs: Better the agent you know. — Julian Assange ⌛ (@JulianAssange) March 14, 2018 * * * Update: As previewed earlier, Theresa May announced that Britain will expel 23 Russian diplomats who are "undeclared intelligence officers", i.e., spies. The retaliation comes as part of a range of measures in response to the poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal. Speaking to parliament, Theresa May said the Russian state was culpable in the nerve agent attack in Salisbury on former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia and is the reason for the expulsion of 23 diplomats: "All who been identified as undeclared intelligence officers. They have just one week to leave," she said. UK will expel 23 Russian diplomats over nerve agent poisoning #Salisbury pic.twitter.com/1geAdkrZ58 — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 14, 2018 "This will be the single biggest expulsion for over 30 years and it will reflect the fact that this is not the first time the Russian state has acted against our country" she added. She says Russia's response "has shown complete disdain" and the country has offered no explanation for the Russian-made novichok nerve agent used in the attack. The PM says the matter has been treated with "sarcasm, contempt and defiance". Russian response has demonstrated "complete disdain" for gravity of events in #Salisbury and they have provided "no credible explanation" says @Theresa_May pic.twitter.com/GYbS7W6Exi — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 14, 2018 Echoing what she said earlier, May said that "Either this was a direct act by the Russian state against our country, or conceivably the Russian government could have lost control of a military grade nerve agent" and added that "In the aftermath of this appalling act against our country, this relationship cannot be the same." "Either this was a direct act by the Russian state against our country, or conceivably the Russian government could have lost control of a military grade nerve agent" - @Theresa_May on #Salisbury pic.twitter.com/57nZbjTK4q — Sky News (@SkyNews) March 14, 2018 The move was among a set of measures announced in retaliation for what Mrs May called the “highly likely” involvement of the Russian state in the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter on British soil. Other highlights from the retaliation include the suspension of some Russian assets, a quasi boycott for the world cup, where no UK officials will be present, a suspension of all high-level contact with Russia, as well as sanctions for human-rights violations. MAY: U.K. TO EXPEL 23 RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS IN RESPONSE TO ATTACK MAY: EXPELLED RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS ARE INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS MAY: EXAMINING NEED FOR NEW COUNTER-ESPIONAGE POWERS MAY: WILL LOOK INTO SANCTIONS FOR HUMAN-RIGHTS VIOLATIONS MAY: WILL FREEZE RUSSIAN ASSETS WHERE POSSIBLE MAY: WILL USE EXISTING POWERS TO MONITOR TRAVELERS TO U.K. MAY: NOT IN OUR INTEREST TO BREAK ALL DIALOGUE WITH RUSSIA MAY: WILL SUSPEND ALL HIGH-LEVEL CONTACT WITH RUSSIA MAY: NO ATTENDANCE BY OFFICIALS AT WORLD CUP MAY: NO MINISTERS, ROYAL FAMILY TO WORLD CUP MAY: SAYS SOME MEASURES AGAINST RUSSIA IT CANNOT DISCLOSE MAY: WON'T TOLERATE FLAGRANT BREACH OF RUSSIA'S OBLIGATIONS MAY: WILL GET OPCW TO VERIFY U.K. ANALYSIS OF NERVE AGENT Furthermore, May said the UK will examine the need for new "counter-espionage" powers and will deploy some measures against Russia which it cannot disclose, although as Bloomberg's Leonid Bershidsky notes, "a secret response, if one is implied, won't do May much good. What the public cannot see isn't happening." As a reminder, following Litvinenko's death several years ago, the UK similarly expelled Russian diplomats, suspended security cooperation, broke off bilateral plans on visas, froze the assets of the suspects and put them on international extradition lists; which makes today's response comparable. Commenting on the response, Julian Rimmer, a London-based emerging-markets trader at Investec, said earlier that "there is no way the investment case for Russia cannot be undermined by whatever constitutes a 'full range of measures' from the U.K. PM," and added that "One can dispute the relative impact of the measures once they have been announced, but the net effect, to a greater or lesser extent, can only be detrimental." Sure enough, the ruble is sliding on the news. As are Russian stocks. Commenting on the action, the Russian ambassador to the UK warned that Britain should expect retaliation for diplomat expulsions Alexander Vladimirovich Yakovenko tells Sky's Senior Political Correspondent Jason Farrell the UK's actions are "unacceptable" and that Moscow considers the expulsion of Russian diplomats "a provocation". He says the measures have "nothing to do with the situation that we have in Salisbury". "This is a really serious provocation." Sure enough, Interfax reports that a Russian senator is calling for even more British diplomats to be expelled than the 23 Russians the U.K. is ousting. And just like that the Cold War has made another return, this time in Russian-UK relations. * * * Courtesy of SkyNews here are the key excerpts from Theresa May's speech: It was right to offer Russia the opportunity to provide an explanation But their response has demonstrated complete disdain for the gravity of these events. They have provided no credible explanation that could suggest they lost control of their nerve agent. No explanation as to how this agent came to be used in the United Kingdom; no explanation as to why Russia has an undeclared chemical weapons programme in contravention of international law. Instead they have treated the use of a military grade nerve agent in Europe with sarcasm, contempt and defiance. There is no alternative conclusion other than that the Russian State was culpable for the attempted murder of Mr Skripal and his daughter - and for threatening the lives of other British citizens in Salisbury, including Detective Sergeant Nick Bailey. This represents an unlawful use of force by the Russian State against the United Kingdom. It has taken place against the backdrop of a well-established pattern of Russian State aggression across Europe and beyond. It must therefore be met with a full and robust response. It is essential that we now come together – with our allies - to defend our security, to stand up for our values and to send a clear message to those who would seek to undermine them. This morning I chaired a further meeting of the National Security Council, where we agreed immediate actions to dismantle the Russian espionage network in the UK… …urgent work to develop new powers to tackle all forms of hostile state activity and to ensure that those seeking to carry out such activity cannot enter the UK… …and additional steps to suspend all planned high-level contacts between the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. Let me start with the immediate actions. Under the Vienna Convention, the United Kingdom will now expel 23 Russian diplomats who have been identified as undeclared intelligence officers. They have just one week to leave. This will be the single biggest expulsion for over thirty years and it reflects the fact that this is not the first time that the Russian State has acted against our country. We will fundamentally degrade Russian intelligence capability We will urgently develop proposals for new legislative powers to harden our defences against all forms of hostile state activity. This will include the addition of a targeted power to detain those suspected of hostile state activity at the UK border. This power is currently only permitted in relation to those suspected of terrorism. And I have asked the Home Secretary to consider whether there is a need for new counter-espionage power We will also table a Government amendment to the Sanctions Bill to strengthen our powers to impose sanctions in response to the violation of human rights We will also make full use of existing powers to enhance our efforts to monitor and track the intentions of those travelling to the UK who could be engaged in activity that threatens the security of the UK and of our allies. So we will increase checks on private flights, customs and freight. We will freeze Russian State assets wherever we have the evidence that they may be used to threaten the life or property of UK nationals or residents. And led by the National Crime Agency, we will continue to bring all the capabilities of UK law enforcement to bear against serious criminals and corrupt elites. There is no place for these people – or their money - in our country. We have had a very simple approach to Russia: Engage but beware. And I continue to believe it is not in our national interest to break off all dialogue between the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. But in the aftermath of this appalling act against our country, this relationship cannot be the same. So we will suspend all planned high level bi-lateral contacts between the United Kingdom and the Russian Federation. This includes revoking the invitation to Foreign Minister Lavrov to pay a reciprocal visit to the United Kingdom... …and confirming there will be no attendance by Ministers - or indeed Members of the Royal Family - at this Summer’s World Cup in Russia. There are some that cannot be shared publicly for reasons of National Security. And, of course, there are other measures we stand ready to deploy at any time, should we face further Russian provocation. Many of us looked at a post-Soviet Russia with hope. We wanted a better relationship and it is tragic that President Putin has chosen to act in this way. But we will not tolerate the threat to life of British people and others on British soil from the Russian Government. Nor will we tolerate such a flagrant breach of Russia’s international obligations. This was not just an act of attempted murder in Salisbury – nor just an act against UK. It is an affront to the prohibition on the use of chemical weapons. And it is an affront to the rules based system on which we and our international partners depend. We will work with our allies and partners to confront such actions wherever they threaten our security, at home and abroad. * * * Earlier: The UK was braced for a showdown with Russia on Wednesday after a midnight deadline set by Prime Minister Theresa May expired without an explanation from Moscow about how a Soviet-era nerve toxin was used to strike down a former Russian double agent. Russia, which denied any involvement in the poisoning of Sergei Skripal and his daughter with Novichok, a nerve agent developed by the Soviet military, said it was not responding to May’s ultimatum until it received samples of the nerve agent, in effect challenging Britain to show what sanctions it would impose against Russian interests. “Moscow had nothing to do with what happened in Britain. It will not accept any totally unfounded accusations directed against it and will also not accept the language of ultimatums,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Wednesday according to Reuters. He added, however, that Russia remained open to cooperating with Britain in investigating the poisoning, blaming the British authorities for refusing to share information. Russia’s Interfax news agency reported the Russian embassy in London planned to ask for consular access to Yulia Skripal, Sergei’s daughter. Britain’s response to the expiry of the deadline and lack of explanation from Moscow was expected to be announced by May in parliament later, after May convened a meeting of the National Security Council at her Downing Street office in the morning. Furthermore, Bloomberg reported that the U.K. has called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to update Council members on the investigation into the nerve agent attack in Salisbury, the U.K. Foreign Office said in a tweet. The UK has called for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to update Council members on the investigation into the nerve agent attack in Salisbury. pic.twitter.com/jFQ2HA4JV0 — Foreign Office 🇬🇧 (@foreignoffice) March 14, 2018 In retaliation, it is possible that London could call on Western allies for a coordinated response, freeze the assets of Russian business leaders and officials, limit their access to London’s financial center, expel diplomats and even launch targeted cyber attacks. Furthermore, as Boris Johnson threatened, the UK may also cut back participation in the soccer World Cup, which Russia is hosting in June and July. Meanwhile, as Reuters notes, the UK has already started its retaliation: BRITAIN TO EXPEL SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS THOUGH NOT AS MANY AS IN 1971 - SKY NEWS REPORTER SAYS This is likely just the start. The official residence of Russia's ambassador to Britain, in central LondonOn Tuesday, President Trump told May by telephone Russia “must provide unambiguous answers regarding how this chemical weapon, developed in Russia, came to be used in the United Kingdom,” the White House said. The White House said Trump and May “agreed on the need for consequences for those who use these heinous weapons in flagrant violation of international norms.” A British readout of the conversation said, “President Trump said the US was with the UK all the way.” As a reminder, Skripal, 66, and his daughter Yulia, 33, were found slumped unconscious on a bench outside a shopping center in the genteel southern English city of Salisbury on March 4. They have been in a critical condition in hospital ever since. British scientists identified the poison as a military-grade nerve agent from a group of chemicals known as Novichok, first developed in the Soviet Union in the 1970s and 1980s. On Monday, Theresa May said either the Russian state had poisoned Skripal, a former Russian military intelligence officer, or Russia had somehow lost control of its chemical weapons. Putin said last year that it had destroyed its last stockpiles of such weapons. May said Russia had shown a pattern of aggression including the annexation of Crimea and the murder of former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko, who died in 2006 after drinking green tea laced with radioactive polonium-210. A public inquiry found the killing of Litvinenko had probably been approved by Putin and carried out by two Russians, one of them a former KGB bodyguard who became a member of the Russian parliament. Both denied responsibility, as did Moscow. Counter-terrorism officers began investigating the death of another Russian in Britain on Tuesday, although police said it was not thought to be linked to the attack on the Skripals. Nikolai Glushkov, 68, who was an associate of late tycoon Boris Berezovsky, was found dead on Monday. Berezovsky was found dead in March 2013 with a scarf tied around his neck in the bathroom of his luxury mansion west of London. And now that the UK has formally commenced retaliation, all eyes are on the Kremlin and how Putin will respond.
Investec turns negative on Metro Bank, citing cash call worries
While inverse vol funds were the immediate catalyst for the February 5 market crash, the market's recent jittery behavior has coincided, and often been blamed on, the recent uptick in inflation. That said, as Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha writes, whether this was cause and effect is debatable. Nonetheless, late in the business cycle with a tight labor market, "strong coordinated growth", a lower dollar, higher oil prices and a fading of one off factors, all point to inflation moving up. As a result, two key questions have emerged: What does higher inflation mean for equities? And how long until higher inflation translates into a recession. Here, Deutsche Bank makes some preliminary observations. First, and conceptually, higher inflation is ambiguous. From a pricing vs cost perspective, whether higher inflation leads to higher or lower margins depends on the relative strengths of price vs wage and other input cost inflation. It depends on the relative importance of variable vs fixed costs. And on the extent to which corporates can increase productivity in response to cost pressures. It is notable that while markets seem to have been surprised by the recent uptick in wage inflation, corporates have been noting it for at least a year. Finally, inflation does not occur in a vacuum. The drivers of higher inflation matter and when it reflects strong growth, it implies not only higher sales but operating leverage from fixed costs can raise margins and amplify the impact on earnings. In other words, inflation in itself is not a death sentence to bull markets. What is just as important is overall economic growth (rising inflation is benign if overall economic growth is higher), as well as the impact of inflation on profit margins - i.e. the ability to pass inflation through to the end consumer - and most importantly, how the Fed reacts to inflation, or namely does the Fed think it is behind the curve. Ultimately, it all boils down to whether future inflation will be higher (or much higher) than currently. Here one of the reasons why the Fed has been gingerly hiking rates at a glacial pace in recent years is that persistent inflationary pressures have largely been absent during this bull market cycle. However, recent data points indicate that any inflation surprises over the coming months will most likely be to the “upside.” And, judging by its quotes, the Fed is also taking noticing as well, potentially realizing that it is behind the curve, as highlighted by the change of tone in the quotes below: Nov 1, 2017: "…the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely" Dec 13, 2017: "…the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely." Jan 31, 2018: "The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal." Making matters worse, while the Fed has raised rates 4 times since Sept. 2016, increasing the discount rate by 1.00%, the 2Y Tsy has increased by 1.70% over the same period, suggesting that bond vigilantes see the Fed as behind the curve, literally. Furthermore, as Investec points out in a recent note, although both headline and core inflation appear tame – a key leading indicator from the New York Fed, the Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG), is pointing towards increased risks ahead, having hit 3.00% in January, up from 2.94% in December and the highest level since 2007. Furthermore, as Investec adds, the UIG has proven especially useful in detecting turning points in inflation trends, and has shown high forecast accuracy when compared with core inflation measures. As shown in the chart below, the UIG has been indicating far higher levels of inflationary pressure relative to Core CPI since over the past year. The divergence between the core CPI and UIG is notable, and reached a differential in excess of 1% in recent months. Based on historical patterns, such a wide divergence has been followed by increasing pressures in official inflation statistics, prompting the Federal Reserve to become more aggressive in their actions. And while one can argue whether higher inflation is bad, one thing is guaranteed: rising interest rates are the nemesis of an aging bull market. Nothing has killed more bull markets than a deteriorating monetary climate with a relentless uptrend in interest rates; in fact, as we have shown previously, virtually every single Fed tightening cycle has always ended with a recession or some "event." Once started down the track of tightening, the conclusion seems all but inevitable. Out of 11 past tightening cycles, nine have resulted in a recession while only two created a soft landing that allowed the Fed to ease and avoid a recession. Here another observation from the historical record: the Fed has a dismal track record of slowing the economy and at the same time avoiding a full blown recession. As investec ominously points out, "while each cycle has its own unique characteristics, the odds are not favorable that the current Fed tightening cycle is going to end happily for investors." * * * Which brings us back to the key question: how long before rising inflation results in a recession? For the answer, we go back to Deutsche Bank, which looks at the role inflation has a leading indicator of recession. Specifically, the German bank asks "Is the inflection in inflation a leading indicator of the end of the cycle? How long is the lead?" It answer: On average 3 years... but the Fed’s reaction is key. Here are the details: If the recent uptick marks the typical mid-to late-cycle inflection up in inflation, how long after did the next recession typically occur? On average 3 years, which would put it in late 2020. But the timing is likely determined critically by the Fed’s reaction. Historically, a Fed rate-hiking cycle preceded most recessions since World War II, with recessions occurring only after the Fed moved rates into contractionary territory. Arguably the Fed did this only after it was convinced the economy was overheating and it continued hiking until the economy slowed sufficiently or went into recession. At the current juncture, core inflation has remained below the Fed’s target of 2% for the last 10 years and several Fed officials have argued for symmetry in inflation outcomes around the target, i.e., to tolerate inflation above 2%. It is thus likely that the Fed will welcome the rise in inflation for now and simply stick to its current guidance, possibly moving it up modestly. It also means that if indeed the Fed intends on running the economy hot, equity investors may want to consider jogging quietly for the exits, especially before the vol-targeting, inverse vol, Risk parities, CTAs and the rest of the systematic funds decide to make another sprint for it.
DRC tax row rattles Randgold, while Redburn eyes bus operators
Южноафриканская медиакорпорация Naspers попросила Investec отозвать свой аналитический доклад о состоянии дел в компании. С точки зрения Naspers, представленный отчет содержит ошибки и наносит урон как самой корпорации, так и ее акционерам.Как сообщает агентство Bloomberg, в самом докладе аналитики Дэвид Смит и Тапело Моконьяне утверждают, что акции Naspers должны стоить на 30% меньше. В качестве обоснования аналитики приводят постепенное сокращение объема акций Naspers, находящихся в свободном обращении, на протяжении 11 последних лет. Кроме того, аналитики обращают внимание на налоговые отчисления и затраты, связанные с финансовыми переводами, которые в докладе указаны как расходы на преодоление факторов, мешающих заключению сделок.Однако Naspers считает, что в докладе содержится ряд фактических ошибок и ошибочных выводов. При этом после его публикации акции корпорации начали снижаться. Компания потеряла в цене с тех пор уже более 16%.Кирилл Сарханянц
Longstanding management team to move to non-executive roles
Инфляция выше целевого уровня и оживленный рынок рабочих мест не заставят Банк Англии ужесточить политику, по крайней мере, до ноября, пока он не увидит, как развиваются переговоры о разводе с ЕС, показали итоги опроса Reuters. Решение Великобритании покинуть Европейский Союз вызвало резкое падение курса фунта и подтолкнуло вверх инфляцию, так как выросла стоимость импорта. До запланированного выхода страны из блока остается чуть больше года, но переговоры достигли незначительного прогресса. Это означает, что существует 20-процентная вероятность того, что страна покинет ЕС без сделки, согласно медианным оценкам опрошенных экспертов, хотя она и снизилась с прогнозируемых 25% в декабре. Это был бы худший результат для экономики и для курса фунта, согласно опросам Reuters. "С учетом сохраняющейся неопределенности в отношении дискуссий по Брекзиту, Банк Англии, возможно, пожелает избежать внесения существенных изменений в оценки по инфляции, которые могут заставить рынки пересмотреть путь повышения ставки", - сказала Виктория Кларк в Investec. С учетом того, что Банк Англии повысил ставку на 25 базисных пунктов в ноябре, до 0,50%, ни один из 75 опрошенных экономистов не ожидает, что ЦБ снова увеличит ставку на ближайшем заседании, которое состоится 8 февраля, и в рамках которого он опубликует прогнозы по росту и инфляции. Согласно медианным прогнозам, следующее повышение ставки Банка Англии, вероятно, произойдет в 4-м квартале этого года - тогда она будет увеличена на 25 базисных пунктов, до 0,75%. Однако, 34 из 71 экономистов не ожидали никаких изменений в 2018 году. Следующее повышение ставки, также на 25 базисных пунктов, было предсказано в последние месяцы 2019 года. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Высокая инфляция и оживленный рынок труда не заставят Банк Англии ужесточать денежно-кредитную политику, по крайней мере до ноября, поскольку регулятор ждет того, как будут продвигаться переговоры по Brexit, показал опрос Reuters.
Высокая инфляция и оживленный рынок труда не заставят Банк Англии ужесточать денежно-кредитную политику по крайней мере до ноября, поскольку регулятор ждет того, как будут продвигаться переговоры по Brexit, показал опрос Reuters.
With US markets closed for holiday, it has been a quiet, low-liquidity European session, with Asia similarly subdued, while continued USD weakness, now in its 4th consecutive day, has been the main focus as Bloomberg’s dollar index approached its lowest level in three years, helping push the euro up to its strongest since 2014. Indeed, in lieu of active equity markets, it's been all about FX and the tumbling dollar and overnight the EURUSD rose to a new three year high just shy of 1.23 before easing off, while cable briefly rose above 1.38 - its highest level since Brexit - and the Mexican Peso was well supported by an unconfirmed Axios reports that was Trump softening his stance on Nafta, at least until Reuters denies it. The Euro was boosted by growing expectations of tighter monetary policy from ECB, while the chance of a pro-European Union coalition in Germany also boosted confidence in the continent. “The latest leg up in the euro has clearly come from optimism that the German government is moving towards an agreement for a coalition government,” said Investec economist Victoria Clarke. The SPD’s pro-European stance - leader Martin Schulz recently argued for a “United States of Europe” - also strengthens the case for investment in the euro. “This follows an earlier move triggered by the crucial line in the ECB account which has got people thinking about when the first move on rates will happen,” said Clarke. Euro zone money markets now price in a 70 percent chance of a 10-basis-point rate increase by the ECB by the end of the year, up from 50 percent a week before. As Bloomberg notes this morning, "the dollar remains under pressure after capping five straight weeks of declines, even against a backdrop of solid U.S. growth. Traders appear to be more excited by potentially hawkish policy shifts from central banks in Europe and Japan, by the improving political outlook in the euro area, and by the synchronized nature of global expansion that’s also propelling emerging-market economies." The strength in the euro pushed European stocks a touch lower, as exporters were hit by the currency strength. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.1%, but still not far from multi-year high hit last week, even after advances in Asian stock markets, as the common currency provided a headwind to the region’s exporter-heavy gauge. The yuan touched a two-year high as the People’s Bank of China raised the currency’s fixing to the strongest since May 2016. European equity markets have started the week in negative territory, taking a breather after the gains seen since the start of the year with the DAX underperforming due to exposure of currency-sensitive stocks amid a surging EURUSD. The UK construction and management company Carillion was in focus after the company was forced to go into voluntary liquidation as talks to rescue the company failed and trading in their shares was suspended. Serco shares rallied over 3% as markets bet that the company should be able to benefit from the collapse of Carillion, while Carillion supplier Speedy Hire fell over 10%. GKN shares have started the week positively after reports that they are considering spinning off a unit to fend off takeover interest and as Melrose said it’s planning to meet with shareholders following their rejected takeover offer. Over in Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index increased 0.6% to the highest on record with the largest climb in more than a week, even as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index posted its first drop after a record 14 days of increases although the benchmark equity index erased a gain of as much as 1% as some of the biggest gainers over the past 12 months tumbled Monday afternoon. The Hang Seng closed down 0.2% after earlier climbing above its record closing high earlier; the index had climbed in the previous 14 sessions, its longest run on record. Meanwhile, on the mainland, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.5% lower, ending its 11-day gaining streak. China's Nasdaq-equivalent Chinext tumbled near 3% to the lowest level in 5 months... ... while big-caps outperformed, and the SSE 50 index tracking 50 biggest stocks in Shanghai, climbed 1%. Asia’s emerging currencies rose amid fund inflows into the region and a weaker dollar. The yuan led the advance after People’s Bank of China boosted the currency fixing to the highest since May 2016. Government bonds were mixed. Strong U.S. stock market will give a tailwind to Asian equity flows, “which should be positive for the regional currency markets,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. A soft U.S. dollar and a stronger Chinese yuan fix bode well for the regional currency sentiment, he said. So, as noted above, the USD has started the week where it left off: lower. USD/JPY bore the brunt of the weakness, dropping below 111.00 before finding support ahead of 110.50. BoJ Governor Kuroda spoke overnight and although he mentioned that QQE with YCC will continue for as long as necessary; the BoJ Governor also offered a positive view on his nation’s economy and inflation on Monday. The weaker USD has benefitted precious metals with gold higher and palladium now trading at a record high. Base metals also gained with LME copper up over 2% on the LME and zinc up to a 10-year high. WTI and Brent crude futures are both a touch lower as Brent failed to make a clean break above USD 70/bbl. Volumes are expected to remain light today owing to the Martin Luther King holiday in the US. In Fixed Income markets, Bunds and Gilts both extended gains before fading to stand some 20 ticks above parity, with the former seeing further strength on a break of Friday’s Eurex session high to reach 160.76 (+38 ticks on the day), but unable to really challenge the next resistance area on some intraday or short term charts between 160.85-90. 0.5% in 10 year cash is now support rather than psychological resistance and the level is holding, while Gilts probably saw some selling ahead of 124.00 as the Liffe high so far is 123.97 (+37 ticks). Turnover remains light and will likely stay subdued without US participants, but this could result in some exaggerated price action/moves. UST futures are trading, but again amidst low volumes and modestly firmer with a slight flattening bias for choice. The cash UST market closed all day; large redemptions across EGB markets potentially underpin. In commodities, precious and industrial metals are well supported by the USD move, while Brent crude edges lower after failing to hold above $70/bbl again. Brent crude futures fell 19 cents to $69.68 a barrel, while U.S. crude was lower 12 cents at $64.19. As a reminder, US markets are closed today for Martin Luther King day. Key Bloomberg Headlines German Coalition: SPD’s Schneider and Nahles both hopeful on future coalition agreement Carillion Files for Liquidation After Failing to Get Bailout German grand coalition deal rejected in state of Saxony by one vote Bundesbank has decided to include yuan in currency reserves U.K. January Rightmove house prices 0.7% vs -2.3% previous Kuroda expects CPI to pick up toward 2% target; BOJ will ’continue easing’ Oil Trades Near Three-Year High as Iraq Joins Call to Keep Cuts China Sovereign Wealth Fund: To gradually increase direct investment in the U.S. President Trump is said to soften his attitude toward Nafta: Axios Middle East: U.A.E. alleges that Qatar fighter jets intercepted a civilian airliner; Qatar denies incident Fed’s Rosengren says inflation could pick up faster than expected; flatter curve a consequence of larger central bank B/S, not sign of recession DB's Jim Reid, who does not have the day off today, summarizes the overnight wrap. It will be a quiet start to the week though with the US out on holiday. However last week felt like the most exciting for some time - especially in bond markets - with a rare US Core CPI beat on Friday being the final twist in the tale. A central theme of our 2018 view is that inflation will come back to be a theme in financial markets so the beat was some encouragement to our thesis. As we've discussed many times, over the last 2-3 decades US inflation has lagged GDP growth by around 18 months (15 months for the PMIs) and we think that in 2017 markets were too impatient waiting for strong growth to immediate impact inflation. The reality was perhaps that disappointing inflation was to a large part responding to the disappointing growth in late 2015/early 2016 when the energy/ commodity crisis was in full swing. This week isn’t a bumper week for events but China’s big monthly data dump on Thursday and the threat of the US shutdown materialising on Friday are the highlights. According to our economists, the consensus remains that Congress will pass another four-week continuing resolution in order to hammer out a comprehensive budget agreement, but the risk of a government shutdown is not negligible. The rest of the week ahead is at the end today. For the full week ahead with a cut out and keep table please see “Next week... this week”. In government bonds on Friday, 10y treasury yields rose to an intraday high of 2.590% (+c.5bp) following the beat on CPI before stabilising back to 2.548% and closing only 1bp up for the day. The UST 2y rose 2bp to 2.0% - the highest since September 2008. European bonds were mixed with 10y Bunds yields up 3.5bp intraday but closed marginally lower (-0.2bp) after the Bundesbank’s Weidmann played down the chance of an imminent rate hike and noted “as far as central bank rates in the Euro area are concerned…the immediate risk of change is currently low”. Elsewhere, Gilts were weaker (10y +3bp) while peripherals outperformed with yields down 3-7bp, led by Italy. The latest poll by Istituto Ixe showed support for Italy’s Democratic Party rose to 23% while support for Five Star Movement fell 1.2ppt to 27.8%. Despite the beat on CPI and retail sales in the US, the US dollar index fell 0.96% while the Euro jumped 1.41% to a fresh three year high of 1.220 as Germany’s Merkel and SPD reached a preliminary accord to form the next coalition government. Sterling also rose 1.40% to a post Brexit vote high, partly supported by a Bloomberg report that noted the Finance Ministers of Spain and the Netherlands are considering a Brexit deal that keeps the UK as close to the EU as possible. As a reminder, our FX team has a target of 1.30 on EUR/USD in 2018. George Saravelos suggests that although the Fed is hiking rates, US rate differentials are widening and the dollar has become a G10 high-yielder, the dollar is not responding. He thinks current dynamics look very similar to the 2004-06 Fed cycle. Back then the dollar weakened even as the dollar became one of the highest-yielding currencies in the world. Weaker flows into the US mattered more than rising rates. Our FX team believe flows will matter more in 2018 too, and these are decidedly EUR/USD positive. Refer to link for more details. This morning in Asia, the BOJ’s Kuroda reiterated that the central bank will continue its stimulus program for as long as needed to achieve its price target. He also noted a moderate economic expansion is now under way which will help accelerate inflation towards the BOJ’s 2% target. Equities are broadly higher. The Hang Seng led the gains and is up for the 15th consecutive day (+0.94%), while the Nikkei (+0.29%), Kospi (+0.24%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.75%) are all modestly higher. Elsewhere, Axios reported that President Trump is softening his stance towards exiting NAFTA according to five unnamed sources who have spoken with the President. In China, the RMBUSD is up 0.71% to the highest since December 2015 after the central bank strengthened the yuan fixing by 0.55% (the biggest increase in fixing in three months). Now recapping other markets performance from Friday. US bourses were all higher with the S&P up 0.67% to a fresh high, marking the 8th up day out of 9 trading days. Within the S&P, gains were led by consumer discretionary and financial stocks, following a solid beat in December retail sales as well as better than expected guidance on tax cuts by JP Morgan. European equities were broadly higher with the Stoxx 600 (+0.31%), DAX (+0.32%) and FTSE (0.20%) all modestly up. Within the Stoxx, gains were broad based with only the consumer staples sector modestly in the red. In commodities, Brent crude consolidated further and rose 0.88% to $69.87/ bbl. Elsewhere, precious metals gained c1.2% (Gold +1.15%; Silver +1.30%) while other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper -0.49%; Zinc flat; Aluminium +0.40%). Palladium jumped 3.62% to a fresh record high. Away from the markets, the Fed’s Rosengren has reiterated his views of potentially changing the Fed’s policy framework. He said this could be done by setting a target range for inflation instead, potentially 1.5%-3% and then deciding on an optimal level within that range, perhaps on a yoy basis or longer. Elsewhere, he conceded the plan could risk generating uncertainty about inflation in the medium and long term. Over in Germany, Ms Merkel has reached a preliminary accord with the SPD to form the next coalition government. The initial agreements between the parties include: modest middle class tax cuts, focus on strengthening the EU and to contribute more to the EU budget and a potential increase in clean power share from 38% to 65%. Over the weekend, SPD delegates in the state of Saxony-Anhalt rejected the potential for another grand coalition with Ms Merkel’s party by one vote. Notably, the vote is non-binding on the SPD party, but partly illustrate the potential hurdles before a final deal can be reached. Looking ahead, the SPD will vote on the preliminary accord in their full party convention on 21 January. If successful, the two sides will move onto another round of formal talks. Turning to Brexit and this week’s Parliamentary vote on PM May’s proposed EU withdrawal bill. Both the Opposition Labour Party leader Corbyn and Scottish First Minister Sturgeon have noted they are against the bill in its current form, with Mr Corbyn noting “if our tests are not met by the government, then we will vote against the bill”. Notably, given PM May’s alliance with Northern Island’s DUP, it is likely she would have sufficient votes to pass the bill. Elsewhere, Mr Corbyn noted Labour is “not supporting or calling for a second referendum” on Brexit. We wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the December core CPI was above expectations at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2%) which lifted annual inflation to 1.8% yoy (vs 1.7% expected). The 3 and 6 month annualized core inflation are higher and now at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. In the details, car prices rose +0.9% mom, housing +0.3% and lodging away from home +0.8% mom, while price of apparel fell 0.5% mom. Elsewhere, the December retail sales (ex-auto) was also above market at 0.4% mom (vs. 0.3% expected) with a strong 0.3ppt upward revision for the prior month. Finally, the November business inventories was in line at 0.4% mom. Factoring the above, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimate 4Q GDP growth of 3.3% saar versus 2.8% saar previously. The final reading for France and Spain’s December CPI was revised 0.1ppt lower to 1.2% yoy (vs. 1.3% expected). Elsewhere, Italy’s November IP was lower than expected at 2.2% yoy (vs. 3.3%).
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Согласно официальным данным, опубликованным в пятницу, британские домохозяйства стали более осторожными в течение трех месяцев до сентября, когда они повысили свои расходы самыми медленными темпами с 2012 года. В цифрах, которые подчеркивают проблемы, стоящие перед шестой по величине экономикой в мире, связанные с приближением Brexit, Управление национальной статистики подтвердило, что валовой внутренний продукт вырос на 0,4 процента за квартал. Это соответствовало медианному прогнозу в опросе экономистов Reuters. Ежегодный рост был неожиданно пересмотрен до 1,7 процента с 1,5 процента, но повышение в основном отражало изменения в данных, относящиеся к началу прошлого года, и это был самый слабый рост с начала 2013 года, говорится в сообщении ONS. Домохозяйства, под давлением растущей инфляции и слабого роста заработной платы, почти не наблюдали роста своих общих доходов, вынуждая их обратиться к своим сбережения. Экономика Британии выросла медленнее, чем в других крупных европейских странах в этом году, поскольку рост инфляции, вызванный главным образом падением стоимости фунта после решения референдума в 2016 году о выходе из Европейского союза, достиг потребителей. «Цифры подтверждают давление на домохозяйства», - сказал Филипп Шоу, экономист Investec. Ожидаемое падение инфляции в следующем году и прогнозы долгожданного роста роста заработной платы должны облегчить некоторую степень сжатия. «Но нам придется подождать, чтобы увидеть, что на самом деле происходит», - сказал Шоу. Он отметил, что, в отличие от нагрузки на потребителей, британские заводы сильно укрепились, а объем производства вырос на 3,3 процента в годовом выражении, чему способствовало восстановление глобальной экономики и более слабый фунт. На производство приходится лишь около 10 процентов экономики Великобритании, по сравнению с 80 процентами от сектора услуг, который вырос на 1,4 процента годовых, что отражает слабую внутреннюю экономику. Банк Англии повысил процентные ставки в прошлом месяце впервые более чем за 10 лет, отчасти потому, что ожидает ускорение роста заработной платы. Ожидается, что в течение ближайших трех лет она увеличится вдвое. На прошлой неделе Банк Англии заявил, что в конце 2017 года экономика немного замедлилась, и Brexit остается большой неопределенностью в будущем. Данные в пятницу показали, что доход домашних хозяйств, скорректированный на инфляцию, вырос на 0,2 процента, по сравнению с ростом на 2,3 процента во втором квартале, хотя то лучше, чем падение в первые три месяца года. Уровень сбережений домашних хозяйств снизился до 5,2 процента с 5,6 процента во втором квартале, но был выше, чем 3,7 процента в январе-марте. Расходы домашних хозяйств выросли на 1,0 процент годовых, что является самым слабым ростом с начала 2012 года. По данным ONS, домохозяйства были чистыми заемщиками, что означает, что их расходы были больше, чем их доходы, - в течение четырех последовательных кварталов впервые с тех пор, как сбор данных начался в 1987 году. Как и потребители, многие предприятия также проявили осторожность из-за неопределенности в отношении того, что выходит из Евросоюза будет означать для их экспорта и их способности нанимать квалифицированных рабочих. Инвестиции в бизнес выросли на 0,5 процента за квартал и выросли на 1,7 процента по сравнению с предыдущим годом. Это отразило чуть более сильный рост, чем предыдущее чтение за третий квартал, но оставалось слабее, чем в последние годы. В знак того, как экономика начала четвертый квартал, ONS заявило, что доминирующий сектор услуг Великобритании вырос в октябре на 0,2 процента после нулевого роста в сентябре. Сопоставляя три месяца до октября с тем же периодом год назад, рост был самым слабым за четыре года на уровне 1,3 процента. Дефицит текущего счета в Великобритании, который достиг годового рекордного уровня в 5,8 процента ВВП в прошлом году, в третьем квартале составил 4,5 процента от ВВП, что ниже показателя 5,1 процента во втором квартале. В денежном выражении дефицит составил 22,8 млрд фунтов, что выше среднего прогноза в 21,2 млрд фунтов в опросе Reuters. Экономисты в основном ожидают, что дефицит будет ограничен, так как падение фунта повышает экспорт и уменьшает дисбаланс между доходностью иностранных инвестиций, осуществляемых в Великобритании, и британскими инвестициями, проводимыми за рубежом. Тем не менее, британские прогнозисты в прошлом месяце ожидали, что дефицит останется высоким. Управляющий Банка Англии Марк Карни сказал, что дефицит означает, что Британия остается зависимой от «доброты незнакомцев», чтобы профинансировать себя. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Anglo-South African lender’s tie-up with MarketInvoice is first such banking venture
Европейские акции выросли в середине торгов в понедельник, в то время, как инвесторы сосредоточились на двух предстоящих встречах по денежно-кредитной политике. Сводный европейский индекс Stoxx 600 был во флэте, и большинство секторов торговалось на положительной территории. Это произошло после того, как индекс был близок к четырехнедельным максимумам на фоне растущего аппетита к банковским акциям. Банки были среди лучших исполнителей с ростом акций HSBC на 2 процента. Британский кредитор был поддержан новостями о том, что Министерство юстиции США будет добиваться отмены обвинений, выдвинутых против него в 2012 году. «Министерство юстиции признало прогресс HSBC в укреплении его возможностей по борьбе с отмыванием денег и санкций за последние пять лет», - говорится в заявлении HSBC. В целом, прирост в банковском секторе был также поддержан ожиданиями более высоких процентных ставок. Федеральный резерв США должен начать двухдневное заседание во вторник и Европейский центральный банк (ЕЦБ) проведет встречу в четверг. Ожидается, что ФРС повысит ставки в последний раз в этом году. Хотя ЕЦБ вряд ли изменит свою политику, он объявит новые экономические прогнозы для региона. Сектор базовых ресурсов вырос более чем на 1 процент после новостей о том, что австралийские Mineral Resources сделали предложение о покупке AWE, превзойдя китайское предложение. Акции Steinhoff подскочили на 13 процентов после трех сессий в минусе из-за бухгалтерского скандала. Investec заявила в понедельник, что, хотя она имеет кредитный риск для южноафриканского розничного продавца, она не ожидает никаких потерь от бухгалтерии. Inmarsat снизился на 4 процента, после того как Goldman Sachs удалил его из своего общеевропейского списка «купить». На текущий момент: FTSE 7435.93 41.97 0.57% DAX 13170.63 16.93 0.13% CAC 5399.21 0.12 0% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Nov.12 -- Philip Saunders, co-head of multi asset growth at Investec Asset Management, discusses the rally in global equities, low volatility and where he sees opportunity. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: Asia."
Manufacturing PMI in Ireland decreased to 54.40 in October from 55.40 in September of 2017. Manufacturing PMI in Ireland is reported by Markit Economics. The Investec Manufacturing PMI Ireland measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of 258 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. This page provides the latest reported value for - Ireland Manufacturing PMI - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.