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09 апреля, 15:50

International Joint Ventures and Internal vs. External Technology Transfer: Evidence from China -- by Kun Jiang, Wolfgang Keller, Larry D. Qiu, William Ridley

This paper studies international joint ventures, where foreign direct investment is performed by a foreign and a domestic firm that together set up a new firm, the joint venture. Employing administrative data on all international joint ventures in China from 1998 to 2007--roughly a quarter of all international joint ventures in the world--we find, first, that Chinese firms chosen to be partners of foreign investors tend to be larger, more productive, and more likely subsidized than other Chinese firms. Second, there is substantial technology transfer both to the joint venture and to the Chinese joint venture partner, an external, intergenerational technology transfer effect that this paper introduces. Third, with technology spillovers typically outweighing negative competition effects, joint ventures generate on net positive externalities to other Chinese firms in the same industry. Joint venture externalities are large, perhaps twice the size of wholly-owned FDI spillovers, and it is R&D-intensive firms, including the joint ventures themselves, that benefit most from these externalities. Furthermore, the positive external joint venture effect is larger if the foreign firm is from the U.S. rather than from Japan or Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, while this effect is virtually absent in broad sectors that include economic activities for which China's FDI policy has prohibited joint ventures.

03 апреля, 14:34

Does The Stock Market’s Slide Signal Regime Shift?

This much is clear: the sharp decline in the S&P 500 yesterday (April 2) confirms that the downside bias in the first three months of the year has spilled over into the second quarter. It’s also obvious that the latest market stumble has inspired a new round of warnings from analysts. CNBC, for example, reports […]

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03 апреля, 13:46

Spotify's secret weapon

After a series of Spotify executives gave presentations for nearly two hours at an investor event last month, the company brought out its closer: Barry McCarthy.

03 апреля, 12:02

Democrats fund start-ups to leapfrog RNC technology

They want to be like the Koch Brothers and the Mercers for campaign tech, but much cheaper, faster and smarter — and for Democrats.Higher Ground Labs, the incubator fund that last year put $2.5 million behind 12 start-up companies specifically focused on pumping up Democratic campaigns, says its beta test worked, so it will unveil its second round of financing on Tuesday for 11 new companies. Each is getting $100,000 of seed capital, with the rest of the money on reserve for programming and follow-up funding for successes.The fund takes 6 to 8 percent equity in each company, and says profits will be reinvested in future expansion.“People who have given money before are craving a different way to participate and a different way to invest in the Democratic Party,” said Betsy Hoover, a Higher Ground Labs co-founder and the digital organizing director for the Obama 2012 campaign.The list of investors includes Reid Hoffman, co-founder of LinkedIn, SoulCycle founders Alan and Elizabeth Cutler, and big Silicon Valley investors Tamim Mourad, Ron Conway and Scott Mason.Of the new groups, one provides software to automate the process for fundraising calls. Another streamlines online polling for faster, more accurate online polls. Still another connects people to activism through analyzing their social media interests, while a fourth uses that public information to tailor ads and other voter appeals.The idea was simple when it started to come together last year: while groups like Indivisible and Swing Left emerged to channel the explosion of Democratic activity after President Donald Trump’s election, Higher Ground Labs would tackle the widespread recognition that Republicans in 2016 had smoked the Democrats in an area that for a decade had been their main electoral advantage.All of it comes as the Democratic National Committee has been racing to rebuild its own tech operation, left atrophied after years of mismanagement.“Where innovation is at its healthiest, there are a bunch of really smart people trying a bunch of cutting edge things. The party is not equipped to provide that space, either in resources or in speed and agility of strategy,” Hoover said. “What the party is equipped to do is take the things that are working well and quickly scale that.”Perhaps more important than the seed money has been the network and connections provided by Higher Ground Labs. It’s board is stocked with prominent alumni of the Obama campaign, offering a seal of approval to start-ups looking to attract clients and new investors.They’re looking to win races, but they’re also looking to turn a profit.“It’s not just that were investing in these companies, but able to provide them with the kinds of contacts and relationships and expertise that also helps them grow,” said Ron Klain, the former Al Gore, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton adviser who serves as Higher Ground Labs board chairman.Several of the companies originally financed and nurtured by the small fund were cited as providing crucial help in last year’s races in Virginia. Eight of the initial round of companies were active in the state’s elections, and claim to have been involved in reaching out three million times to voters.One of those, Mobilize America, provides an online platform to help connect campaigns with interested volunteers, to work both locally and remotely. For 11 Virginia House of Delegates candidates last year, they say they connected about 6,000 “shifts” of time — each two or three hours of knocking on doors or making phone calls. For Rep. Conor Lamb’s special election win in Pennsylvania last month, they tracked 4,000 shifts, including 1,300 just on the Friday before the election, which he went on to win by a very tight 670 votes.The start-up’s overhead is low, and so is the cost: depending on campaign size, the charge is between several hundred and several thousand dollars per month.“By virtue of connecting directly to the online community that wants to help candidates, we can win races. We can figure out how to mobilize the movement into an electoral force,” said Mobilize America co-founder and CEO Alfred Johnson.Johnson said that for 2018, the company is expecting to work with 10-20 campaigns, as well as some of the newer grassroots groups, coordinated campaigns at the state level and Democratic campaign committees out of Washington. None of it would be possible, he said, without the initial help from Higher Ground Labs and the continued advice they’re getting. Some of the incubator fund’s investors have since turned around and invested in the company directly.The rest of the companies in the first round have similar stories, like one that taps social networks to help people make more personal voting appeals in campaigns or another that has built an updated database of every candidate running for every office around the country to create custom voter guides.The goal is to add 10-15 companies each year, with about the same amount of investment in each to retain the boutique, hands-on approach to the accelerator. But the goal is also to keep making profitable companies.“HGL has become category-defining institutional capital for innovation in the progressive movement,” said Shomik Dutta, the fund’s other co-founder and a former Obama fundraiser.Once Higher Ground Labs invests, they bring in the companies for three days per month of training around understanding the world of contemporary political technology, then building products and marketing within it. Companies will head to Washington June 11-14 for a series of pitch meetings hosted by the DNC that all the major party committees will attend, and then to San Francisco July 16-19 for a demonstration day with investors.The DNC is happy to have the help, and the competition. They desperately need it.“If we had infinite funds and infinite resources, it would be great to build this all in-house. We have none of those,” said Raffi Krikorian, an alum of Twitter and Uber who was hired as the DNC’s chief technology officer last year to start getting the party headquarters back up to speed. “Let people do some of the R&D work with a different set of funds.”

03 апреля, 10:08

Markets fall as China-US tariffs spat fuels trade war fears - business live

All the day’s economic and financial news, as European markets fall following last night’s Wall Street routAnalyst: Trade worries and tech angst hit marketsUK factory growth stable, but eurozone slowsWhy Trump’s attacks on Amazon are worryingThe agenda: Traders anxious after US stocks fallComing up: Spotify IPO 12.15pm BST Bad news: another 97 workers at the collapsed UK construction and outsourcing group Carillion have lost their jobs.That take the total redundancies at the company to 1,802, since it was liquidated in January in one of the biggest UK corporate failures in years. Some 9,946 jobs have been saved (because other companies have taken on the contracts they work on). 11.44am BST Sky is bucking today’s selloff, after a cunning scheme to help Rupert Murdoch take full control of the broadcaster emerged.We think the news and today’s comments from Sky point to a revised bid from Fox/Disney to trump Comcast’s 1250p bid. Related: Disney offers to buy Sky News to ease Murdoch's £11.7bn takeover Continue reading...

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03 апреля, 08:43

Spotify aims to strike chord in stock market debut

Spotify on Tuesday debuts as a publicly traded company, hoping that its streaming music model will be a hit with investors and a boon to artists. In an…

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03 апреля, 08:42

Asian stocks slip on trade woes, tech sector pain

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares slipped on Tuesday amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about tech firms, although regional index declines were modest compared with those of their Wall Street counterparts as investors focused on global growth prospects.

03 апреля, 07:10

More Market Pain: The VIX, Swaption Vol, EMFX And Some Investing Philosophy

The Market: “Good morning!! How was the long weekend?”Trader: “Great I guess, party at the in-laws. How ‘bout you?” The Market: “I spent the last 72 hours furthering my plans to cause you more pain.” Trader: “Really...Why?” The Market: “Bwaahhhhhhaaaaa….assume the position!!”We can get into the cycle of looking for where the next bounce is going to come from, or if this is the second inning of a larger market collapse. What seems clear to me is that this is what we can expect from the market--far greater swings and moves on lesser news. That is an indication that liquidity is drying up and there isn’t new money coming in to chase valuations higher. The high valuations and tight credit spreads that practically every market commentator highlighted in 2017 are finally taking their toll. Don’t take my word for it, take a look at the 5yr chat on the VIX. I can name from memory each of the events that are north of current levels. That’s not showing off my grasp on market history--it is an illustration of the fact that they were all *big* events. Or just *events”. They had a name. They had a story. This market seems like just the opposite. It is a selloff looking for a story. Is it anxiety over tech? Is it fear about the impact of a trade war?  Or...is there just nobody on the bid anymore? My money is on the latter….yet what continues to befuddle me is the lack of movement or realized volatility in other asset classes. This is a regression of the vix against 3m/10yr swaption volatility. Quite frankly it is a pretty worthless regression analysis but I wanted to pull up a chart that illustrates just how low interest rate volatility is compared to equity volatility. There are also those that are looking for a USD to move higher as market stress increases. These two factors are probably two sides of the same coin. I went over some of the factors driving CAD and AUD last week. JPY has also traded by its own twisted logic...strengthening earlier this year on the back of of optimism about global manufacturing demand, local growth, and BoJ stealth tapering--and then as market stress increases, which has usually put a bid into the yen, it simply does nothing. What about the spicy stuff...high-beta EMFX? Surely the high risk/high carry currencies have sold off? Meh….not really. TRY has its own problems...if we throw that one out, the big “loser” in this chart is BRL at -1.5% YTD….a loss in the spot price you made up in carry!FTQ assets like treasuries aren’t rallying...rate vol isn’t moving much...and EMFX is showing unseasonable warmth. The rest of the picture isn’t quite adding up to me--at these levels I’d lean towards some combination of these assets--like buying receiver swaptions and selling EMFX as a better expression of a bearish view than simply selling stocks. On a more philosophical note, over the weekend I came across the excellent “Behavioural Investment” blog. It is a succinct, well-written set of posts on various investing issues that animate me--like cognitive biases, misplaced incentives, and the perils of generating alpha. The most recent post was entitled, “Things That Fund Managers Don’t Say Enough.” Here are a few of my favorites, with my editorial comments in italics:  “It was a genuine mistake – our analysis was incorrect, but I will make sure I learn from this for future decisions.”  CIOs don’t appreciate this level of humility from the PMs. Most would respond with “And next time I’ll make sure to hire someone that isn’t learning on my dime.” “Although the trade was profitable, the situation did not develop as I had imagined and its success was actually just a dose of good fortune” I always appreciated the bloomberg header of a good friend…”Better lucky than good!” There’s a guy that fears nothing. “I appreciate that recent market volatility feels significant, but I don’t want to focus on it because, on a ten year view, it is likely to seem meaningless”.  More PMs would be willing to say this if they had a ten year lockup on their investors’ money. “I appreciate that I previously held a high level of confidence in this view, but, after careful analysis of new evidence, I realised that I was wrong”. There are dissertations to be written about this one...if you’re hired to manage money you’re self-selecting as smarter than the market--so when the market shows you that you’re wrong, it is hard to admit….because some important people think you’re smarter than the market!!  How often do you see a professional athletes publicly admit they got worked by the competition? Pedro Martinez once said the Yankees treated him like they were “his Daddy,” and he literally never heard the end it. The lesson: know what you’re good at, stick to it. Stay humble, and don’t be afraid to admit mistakes within that circle of competence. And while there is good reason to stray outside of that circle from time to time--don’t allow you’re mistakes (and thus by definition, you’re successes) there to be big enough to have to be explained to someone more important that you.

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03 апреля, 07:00

Equity and credit investors face challenging second quarter

Burning question is whether tech can recover from last month’s stumble

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03 апреля, 06:50

Asian investors stay calm amid Wall Street sell-off

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares slipped on Tuesday amid escalating trade tensions and worries over the fading outlook for global tech giants, but investors held their nerves to focus instead on prospects for stronger world growth.

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03 апреля, 05:07

Stocks slide, yen rises in flight to safety on trade war anxiety

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks extended a global selloff and the yen rose on Tuesday as investors fled for safety as an escalating trade spat between the United States and China and a renewed slump in tech shares such as Amazon.com sapped investor confidence.

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03 апреля, 04:05

These Companies Are Most Vulnerable To The Surge In LIBOR

Over the weekend, we looked at the notional amount of non-financial Libor-linked debt (so excluding the roughly $200 trillion in floating-rate derivatives which have little practical impact on the real world until there is a Lehman-like collateral chain break, of course at which point everyone is on the hook), to see what the real-world impact of the recent blow out in 3M USD Libor is on the business and household sector. To this end, JPM calculated that based on Fed data, there is a little under $8 trillion in pure Libor-related debt... ... and that a 35bps widening in the LIBOR-OIS spread could raise the business sector interest burden by $21 billion. As we wondered previously, "whether or not that modest amount in monetary tightening is enough to "break" the market remains to be seen." In other words, unless the Fed - and JPMorgan - have massively miscalculated how much floating-rate debt is outstanding, and how much more interest expense the rising LIBOR will prompt, the ongoing surge in Libor and Libor-OIS, should not have a systemic impact on the financial system, or economy. What about at the corporate borrower level? In an analysis released on Monday afternoon, Goldman's Ben Snider writes that while for equities in aggregate, rising borrowing costs pose only a modest headwind, "stocks with high variable rate debt have recently lagged in response to the move in borrowing costs." Goldman cautions that these stocks should struggle if borrowing costs continue to climb - which they will unless the Fed completely reverses course on its tightening strategy - amid a backdrop of elevated corporate leverage and tightening financial conditions. Indeed, while various macro Polyannas have said to ignore the blowout in both Libor and Libor-OIS because, drumroll, they are based on "technicals" and thus not a system risk to the banking sector (former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan once called the Libor-OIS "a barometer of fears of bank insolvency"), what they forget, and what Goldman demonstrates is what many traders already know well: the share prices of companies with high floating rate debt has mirrored the sharp fluctuation in short-term borrowing costs. This is shown below in the chart of 50 S&P 500 companies with floating rate bond debt (i.e. linked to Libor) amounting to more than 5% of total. Here are some details on how Goldman constructed the screen: We exclude Financials and Real Estate, and the screen captures stocks from every remaining sector except for Telecommunication Services. So far in 2018, as short-term rates have climbed, these stocks have lagged the S&P 500 by 320 bp (-4% vs. -1%). The group now trades at a 10% P/E multiple discount to the median S&P 500 stock (16.0x vs. 17.6x). These stocks should struggle if borrowing costs continue to climb, but may present a tactical value opportunity for investors who expect a reversion in spreads. The tightening in late March of the forward-looking FRA/OIS spread has been accompanied by a rebound of floating rate debt stocks and suggests investors expect some mean-reversion in borrowing costs. Goldman also notes that small-caps generally carry a larger share of floating rate debt than do large-caps, which may lead to a higher beta for the data set due to size considerations. In any event, the inverse correlation between tighter funding conditions (higher Libor spreads) and the stock underperformance of floating debt-heavy companies is unmistakable. Finally, traders who wish to hedge rising Libor by shorting those companies whose interest expense will keep rising alongside 3M USD Libor, in the process impairing their equity value, here is a list of the most vulnerable names.

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03 апреля, 02:00

Wall Street’s Favorite Shale Stocks

Caution, capital discipline, cash flow, shareholder returns – these buzzwords are thrown around a lot these days, much more so than details about aggressive production growth. After years of a debt-fueled shale boom, drillers are under intense pressure to only spend within their means. For years, investors and shareholders have been demanding prudence from shale companies rather than growth-at-all-costs. But over the past year, the changes have finally become visible in the shale patch. Shale profits have been elusive, but the industry could…

20 июля 2014, 20:24

Emerging market bond sales hit record high

International sovereign bond sales by emerging markets hit $69.47bn, a year-on-year jump of 54%, as low rates push investors into riskier assets

20 июля 2014, 20:24

Emerging market bond sales hit record high

International sovereign bond sales by emerging markets hit $69.47bn, a year-on-year jump of 54%, as low rates push investors into riskier assets

24 апреля 2013, 08:00

Potential and actual FDI spillovers in global value chains : the role of foreign investor characteristics, absorptive capacity and transmission channels

Using newly collected survey data on direct supplier-multinational linkages in Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Vietnam, this paper first evaluates whether foreign investors differ from domestic producers in terms of their potential to generate positive spillovers for local suppliers. It finds that foreign firms outperform domestic producers on several indicators, but have fewer linkages with the local economy and offer less supplier assistance, resulting in offsetting effects on the spillover potential. The paper also studies the relationship between foreign investor characteristics and linkages with the local economy as well as assistance extended to local suppliers. It finds that foreign investor characteristics matter for both. The paper also examines the role of suppliers' absorptive capacities in determining the intensity of their linkages with multinationals. The results indicate that several supplier characteristics matter, but these effects also depend on the length of the supplier relationship. Finally, the paper assesses whether assistance or requirements from a multinational influence spillovers on suppliers. The results confirm the existence of positive effects of assistance (including technical audits, joint product development, and technology licensing) on foreign direct investment spillovers, while the analysis finds no evidence of demand effects.

24 апреля 2013, 08:00

Potential and actual FDI spillovers in global value chains : the role of foreign investor characteristics, absorptive capacity and transmission channels

Using newly collected survey data on direct supplier-multinational linkages in Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Vietnam, this paper first evaluates whether foreign investors differ from domestic producers in terms of their potential to generate positive spillovers for local suppliers. It finds that foreign firms outperform domestic producers on several indicators, but have fewer linkages with the local economy and offer less supplier assistance, resulting in offsetting effects on the spillover potential. The paper also studies the relationship between foreign investor characteristics and linkages with the local economy as well as assistance extended to local suppliers. It finds that foreign investor characteristics matter for both. The paper also examines the role of suppliers' absorptive capacities in determining the intensity of their linkages with multinationals. The results indicate that several supplier characteristics matter, but these effects also depend on the length of the supplier relationship. Finally, the paper assesses whether assistance or requirements from a multinational influence spillovers on suppliers. The results confirm the existence of positive effects of assistance (including technical audits, joint product development, and technology licensing) on foreign direct investment spillovers, while the analysis finds no evidence of demand effects.