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08 августа, 14:52

Gundlach Is Quietly Heading For The Exit: "Volatility Is About To Go Up"

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DoubleLine Capital’s Jeff Gundlach has become one of the most visible critics of market complacency, revealing his purchase buy five- and eight-month S&P 500 put options. Now, the legendary bond investor is touting his bet on a spike in equity market volatility as one of his “highest conviction” trades, according to an interview with Bloomberg. "Volatility is about to go up," he said. "That’s my highest-conviction trade right now." As a result, Gundlach - who does not anticipated a crash (yet) - says his fund is quietly moving toward the exits on riskier assets, which is also his recommendation to traders. “I don’t see the big drop, unless there’s something out of left field, like some sort of really escalating conflict,” he said. “I think you’re supposed to be gradualistically moving toward the exits.” Speaking to Erik Shatzker, Gundlach says he’s reducing DoubleLine’s positions in junk bonds and EM debt and moving to safer high-yield credits. With US equities looking increasingly overvalued with each successive all-time high, Gundlach says being defensively positioned is worth sacrificing a few quarters of higher returns. In the interview, Gundlach echod recent bearish views expressed by investing legend Howard Marks, who said that markets have crossed into “too bullish” territory according to his latest investor letter, discussed here previously. “If you’re waiting for the catalyst to show itself, you’re going to be selling at a lower price," he said in a phone interview Monday from DoubleLine’s office in Los Angeles. “This is not the time period where you say, ‘I can buy anything and not worry about the risk of it.’ The time to do that was 18 months ago.” When asked about his business plans, Gundlach revealed that DoubleLine’s AUM increased to an all-time high of $110 billion in 2017. However, he unlike so many other managers, he has no intention of growing his AUM exponentially, and insisted that he may soon close the fund to new money, adding that he doesn’t want DL to become an industry behemoth like BlackRock or Vanguard. “Gundlach is taking a similarly conservative approach to building his eight-year-old firm. While some competitors embrace the mantra “size matters,” he believes there’s a limit to how much DoubleLine can manage well and says the firm may stop marketing altogether once assets reach $150 billion, up from about $110 billion today.   ‘I’ve actually been turning money away in our institutional business,’ Gundlach said. ‘I don’t want to manage $500 billion. I don’t really want to manage $200 billion.’   That attitude is out of step with an industry that prioritizes asset growth, both as a means to generate more revenue and as a way to defray fixed expenses such as technology and compliance. Janus Capital Group and Aberdeen Asset Management Plc each combined with other firms in part to gain scale. Vanguard Group has more than quadrupled its assets to $4.4 trillion in less than a decade, and in an interview in March, Larry Fink, whose BlackRock Inc. oversees $5.7 trillion, said ‘scale has become a greater necessity - and for us a greater advantage.’” As a result, Gundlach may soon shut his flagship $50 billion Total Return Fund to new money, saying that continued growth would make it more difficult to invest in some less-liquid high-yield markets. “Bill Gross once managed a single fund with $293 billion in assets, the Pimco Total Return Fund. By comparison, Gundlach, who co-founded DoubleLine in 2009, said he’s debated whether to close the $54 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the firm’s largest, to new money.” While many hedge funds are slashing fees in a desperate attempt to attract new capital, Gundlach sees high fees as a way to regulate growth. “I don’t want one $150 billion fund, I want 10 $15 billion funds. A diversified business,” Gundlach said in the interview. “We lose business because our fees are too high and I say, ‘Fine, that’s a way of regulating growth.’” Of course, there’s probably no better strategy to ensure that every major institutional investor will show up at your door, check in hand, begging for you to take their money than telling Bloomberg that the door to new money is closing quickly.

05 июля, 15:45

Голландцы ING купили 4% Qiwi при оценке компании в $1,5 млрд

Пакет был приобретен после выхода из капитала Qiwi множества зарубежных инвестиционных фондов.

05 июля, 15:45

Голландцы ING купили 4% Qiwi при оценке компании в $1,5 млрд

Пакет был приобретен после выхода из капитала Qiwi множества зарубежных инвестиционных фондов.

05 июля, 15:45

Голландцы ING купили 4% Qiwi при оценке компании в $1,5 млрд

Пакет был приобретен после выхода из капитала Qiwi множества зарубежных инвестиционных фондов.

09 июня, 19:25

Риски на рынке США стали крайне высокими

Предлагаем читателям рассуждения о будущем мировом кризисе от двух известных американских финансистов.Управляющий одним из облигационных фондов группы Janus Capital, Билл Гросс поделился своими впечатлениями по поводу текущей ситуации в рамках прошедшего форума Bloomberg Invest New York: Я бы оценил текущий уровень риска на американских финансовых рынках сейчас как второй по величине за мою карьеру. Более серьезные риски, чем сейчас, наблюдались только перед финансовым кризисом и крахом Lehman Brothers.Эта ситуация уже вполне очевидна на рынке облигаций, по определенным долговым инструментам мы уже какое-то время видим отрицательные доходности, бессмысленно отрицать это. Пока это еще не так очевидно на фондовом рынке, но все это части финансовой системы, они взаимосвязаны. Надо понимать, что мы уже какое-то время наблюдаем, как риски продолжают расти, а отдача от вложения средства снижается. Это непривлекательная ситуация, но это реальность. Сейчас вместо прежней парадигмы, когда активы покупали на низких уровнях, чтобы продать их подороже, появилась новая: инвесторы покупают дорогие активы, скрещивая пальцы в надежде, что ничего плохого не произойдет. Одна из причин происходящего – увеличение кредитования. Но это не кредиты для реальной экономики, это заемные средства, которые печатают центральные банки. Эти средства активно вливают в финансовую систему. Однако в условиях низкой доходности, когда инвестиции приносят низкую отдачу, большая часть этих средств стремится найти какие-либо защитные активы, причем не только в облигациях, но и в акциях, ценовые уровни которых сегодня завышены”. Подробнее:http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/86594Банковская система развитых стран мира, по мнению главы хедж-фонда Elliott Management Пола Сингера, в настоящий момент стала еще более зависимой от заемных средств, чем до финансового кризиса. В интервьютелеканалу “Блумберг” в рамках форума Bloomberg Invest New York американский миллиардер заявил о том, что он “очень обеспокоен” текущим состоянием финансовой системы.Пол Сингер отметил, что ведущие центральные банки мира напечатали огромное количество денег в качестве экстренных мер на произошедший в 2008 г. кризис. Реализация различных программ количественного смягчения со стороны ФРС, ЕЦБ, Банка Японии привела к тому, что на балансе ЦБ скопилось $15 трлн. Глава Elliot Management, пользующегося репутацией “фонда-стервятника”, который зарабатывает на спекуляциях с неликвидными активами (vulture fund), в свое время стал известен тем, что вел долгую тяжбу с властями Аргентины по поводу дефолта страны по гособлигациям в 2001 г.  Пол Сингер отметил, что экстренные меры мировых ЦБ, часть которых продолжает действовать и сейчас, спустя 9 лет после начала кризиса, поддержали на плаву финансовые рынки, однако при этом усугубили проблему неравенства в мире. – Вы инвестируете в самые различные активы. С учетом этого, как вы сейчас оцениваете ситуацию в экономике США? Вы обеспокоены ее развитием, ожидаете ли вы рецессии в экономике? Я бы отметил, что у меня есть определенные убеждения по поводу состояния определенных элементов макроэкономической картины, но я не позволяю своим убеждениям мешать мне хеджировать потенциальные риски. Наш фонд никогда не делает крупных ставок вокруг конкретного времени начала “медвежьих” циклов на рынке или спада в экономике. Но при этом я очень обеспокоен по поводу сегодняшнего состояния мировых финансовых рынков, экономики США и глобальной экономики в целом. После 9 лет применения искаженного, на мой взгляд, набора мер со стороны центральных банков, которые проводились в духе монетарной политики, которую я называю “монетарным экстремизмом”. Программы количественного смягчения привели к тому, что на балансах мировых ЦБ скопились облигации, акции и другие активы в объеме $15 трлн.Это также касается и монетарного курса нулевых процентных ставок, который только усугубил проблему отрицательных ставок.данный набор экстренных мер монетарной политики, сохраняющийся спустя 9 лет после кризиса, сегодня фактически объединяется с фискальными действиями многих властей, которые фактически подавляют экономический рост. Сюда же относится и посткризисное ужесточение регулятивных мер в финансовом секторе.Все вместе это привело к определенному искаженному восстановлению экономики США после кризиса. “Монетарный экстремизм” и искаженное восстановление обострили проблему неравенства в США и других странах. Это привело к серьезному давлению на средний класс в мире. В итоге мы увидели определенные последствия этого стресса в политическом пространстве – рост крайних настроений, усиление популизма в мире.После 9 лет вот этой искусственной левитации, которую благодаря поддержке мировых ЦБ демонстрируют финансовые активы, жилая недвижимость, предметы искусства и другие вещи, которые покупают богатые люди – я думаю, сегодня мы оказались в ситуации, когда финансовый сектор имеет не меньше долгов, чем в 2008 г., в ряде случаев использование кредитного плеча компаниями стало еще более серьезным. Я не думаю, что финансовая система сегодня более здорова, чем до кризиса. На мой взгляд, те экстренные меры, которые были предприняты после кризиса, сделали финансовую систему более здоровой и устойчивой. Я не считаю, что финансовые власти и центральные банки, которые предприняли эти действия, заслуживают доверия. Очевидно, что они пока не потеряли это доверие. Но в том случае, когда и если доверие утрачивается, это происходит очень быстро и приводит к крайне серьезным последствиям для рынков акций, облигаций и финансовых институтов”.Подробнее:http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/86596 Более подробно: ELLIOTWAVE.ORG

08 июня, 23:45

"I'm Very Concerned" Elliott's Singer Says Market Risks Higher Today Than 2008

Paul Singer just became the latest investing luminary to warn that the unprecedented monetary stimulus adopted by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in Europe and Asia has elevated market risks to their highest levels since before the great financial crisis. “I am very concerned about where we are,” Singer said Wednesday at the Bloomberg Invest New York summit.   “What we have today is a global financial system that’s just about as leveraged - and in many cases more leveraged - than before 2008, and I don’t think the financial system is more sound.” “I don’t think that the fixes that have been put into place have actually created a sound financial system. I don’t believe that confidence is justified in policy makers and central bankers.”   "If and when confidence is lost, it could be lost in a very abrupt fashion causing conceivably a ruckus in bond markets, stock markets and in financial institutions.” Years of rock-bottom interest rates have reduced central banks’ ability to contend with any downturns, Singer said, while “suppressive” fiscal, regulatory and tax policies – along with an “incomplete” recovery - have exacerbated income inequality and led to the rise of populist and fringe political movements, he said. Singer, who says he’s been a conservative since the days of Barry Goldwater, voted for President Donald Trump in November after initially supporting Florida Senator Marco Rubio during the primary. Elliott Management Corp, the activist hedge fund founded by Singer in 1977, made headlines last year when the government of Argentina agreed to pay it and three other funds nearly $5 billion to settle claims on bonds that Argentina had defaulted on 15 years prior. For their part, central bankers have continued to promise more of the same: ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday that the central bank will continue to prop up the eurozone bond market for the foreseeable future.  The ECB, he said, stands ready to expand its program of asset purchases if things get rocky. The VIX, the US market’s preferred gauge of implied volatility, remains near record lows reached last month – a sign that investors are still dangerously complacent about the possibility of a selloff, even with US equities overvalued by every conceivable metric.  Other participants of the Bloomberg Invest summit were similarly gloomy. In addition to the dire warnings from Singer and PIMCO founder and current Janus Capital PM Bill Gross, TPG’s Jon Winkelried said he’s concerned that market investors are "apathetic to growing geopolitical and social unease." “The level of complacency about where markets are today is pretty scary,” the TPG co-CEO said Wednesday.   “People are just sort of assuming it’s OK, that it is what it is, and I have to say that I’m a little bit concerned about it.” Jonathan Beinner, the CIO of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Mmanagement, said he’s "concerned" that people are underestimating the risk of market fluctuations at a time when companies are taking on more debt.

08 июня, 21:15

Гросс: риски на рынке США стали крайне высокими

Финансовые риски в США доситгли максимально высокого уровня с момента кризиса в 2008 г. Об этом в интервью телеканалу "Блумберг" заявил легендарный американский финансист Билл Гросс.

08 июня, 21:15

Гросс: риски на рынке США стали крайне высокими

Финансовые риски в США достигли максимально высокого уровня с момента кризиса в 2008 г. Об этом в интервью телеканалу "Блумберг" заявил легендарный американский финансист Билл Гросс.

22 мая, 13:46

Janus Capital (JNS) Up 8.8% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Janus Capital (JNS) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.

15 мая, 17:21

Janus Capital Keeps Aside Severance Payments for Executives

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (JNS) kept aside around $55.5 million as potential severance payments for its five senior executives,critical in making the Janus-Henderson merger successful, as reported by the Financial Times.

10 мая, 16:45

Should Value Investors Consider Janus Capital (JNS) Stock?

Let's see if Janus Capital Group, Inc. (JNS) stock is a good choice for value-oriented investors right now, or if investors subscribing to this methodology should look elsewhere for top picks.

03 мая, 16:27

Waddell & Reed's (WDR) Stock Down 3.1% on Q1 Earnings Lag

Waddell & Reed Financial Inc.'s (WDR) shares declined 3.1% following the release of the company's first-quarter 2017 results. Earnings of 39 cents per share lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents.

01 мая, 18:45

Affiliated Managers (AMG) Beats on Q1 Earnings, Costs Rise

Affiliated Managers Group Inc. (AMG) reported first-quarter 2017 economic earnings of $3.21 per share, outpacing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.17.

28 апреля, 17:37

Franklin (BEN) Tops Q2 Earnings Estimates on Low Expenses

Driven by prudent cost management, Franklin Resources Inc. (BEN) recorded a positive earnings surprise of 10.4% in second-quarter fiscal 2017. The company reported earnings of 74 cents per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents.

27 апреля, 17:38

Legg Mason (LM) Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on High Revenues

Legg Mason Inc. (LM) reported positive earnings surprise of 46% in fourth-quarter fiscal 2017 (ended Mar 31). The company reported adjusted net income of 92 cents per share, considerably beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 63 cents.

21 апреля, 15:12

Janus Capital's (JNS) Q1 Earnings Beat on High Revenues

Janus Capital Group, Inc. (JNS) recorded a positive earnings surprise of 9.5% in first-quarter 2017. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of 23 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 21 cents.

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19 апреля, 15:00

Is Cash Weighing Down Your Investment Portfolio?

Global economic and geopolitical uncertainty along with low yields in many countries of the developed world have caused fearful investors to hold an excessive amount of unproductive cash in their portfolios. ETFdb.com, in partnership with Janus Capital Group, put together a webinar that discusses a better solution to holding cash. The webinar is hosted by ETFdb.com’s Neelarjo Rakshit, a subject matter expert, and is presented by Dan Siluk, portfolio manager at Janus, and Alex Roitz, senior product specialist.

12 апреля, 00:23

Главный конкурент Uber в США привлек инвестиции на $600 млн

На фоне проблем у Uber для компании Lyft настал решающий момент

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27 марта, 19:49

Bill Gross Awarded $81 Million In PIMCO Lawsuit Settlement

Bill Gross and his former employer PIMCO announced that they have reached an amicable settlement of the breach-of-contract lawsuit filed by Mr. Gross in October 2015, under which Gross would reportedly be awarded $81 million. In a statement regarding the settlement, Gross repeated that his lawsuit had never been about money. Although the settlement’s terms are confidential, Gross and PIMCO confirmed that any proceeds from the suit will be donated to charity, as Gross had promised since the beginning of the suit. “I’ve always been amazed by my success, and grateful for the opportunity to make a difference in the world. I’m glad that can continue today,” Mr. Gross noted. As the WSJ adds, Gross intends to donate the proceeds to charity through his Bill and Sue Gross Family Foundation. Gross alleged that Pimco “wrongly and illegally” denied him hundreds of millions of dollars in earned compensation and damaged his reputation. As a reminder, Gross abruptly left Pimco in September 2014 amid tensions with his colleagues, most notably Mohamed El-Erian, and in 2015 sued the manager for at least $200 million in damages, alleging he was forced out. Gross alleged that Pimco “wrongly and illegally” denied him hundreds of millions of dollars in earned compensation and damaged his reputation. “Driven by a lust for power, greed, and a desire to improve their own financial position and reputation at the expense of investors and decency,” the suit says, “a cabal” of Pimco “managing directors plotted to drive founder Bill Gross out of Pimco.” Gross intends to seek a dismissal Monday in California Superior Court, the people said. Regarding the lawsuit itself, Mr. Gross said in a statement that “PIMCO has always been family to me, and, like any family, sometimes there are disagreements. I’m glad that we have had the opportunity to work through those, and see the PIMCO founders receiving the recognition they deserve. I am honored to be included in their ranks and to know that PIMCO is in capable hands.” Gross left Pimco in September 2014 for Janus Capital Group, where he manages money. * * * Full press release below: NEWPORT BEACH, Calif., March 27, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Bill Gross and Pacific Investment Management Company LLC announce that they have reached an amicable settlement of the lawsuit filed by Mr. Gross in October 2015.   In a statement regarding the settlement, Mr. Gross repeated that his lawsuit had never been about money. Although the settlement’s terms are confidential, Mr. Gross and PIMCO confirmed that any proceeds from the suit will be donated to charity, as Mr. Gross had promised since the beginning of the suit. “I’ve always been amazed by my success, and grateful for the opportunity to make a difference in the world. I’m glad that can continue today,” Mr. Gross noted.   Regarding the lawsuit itself, Mr. Gross said in a statement that “PIMCO has always been family to me, and, like any family, sometimes there are disagreements. I’m glad that we have had the opportunity to work through those, and see the PIMCO founders receiving the recognition they deserve. I am honored to be included in their ranks and to know that PIMCO is in capable hands.”   PIMCO recognizes the enormous contribution to its success made by Mr. Gross and its other founders and leaders, such as James Muzzy, William Podlich, Bill Thompson, Walter Gerken, and Chris Dialynas, the visionaries who created a global investment powerhouse, and an entire industry of fixed-income investments. Over the decades of their leadership and that of those following in their footsteps, PIMCO has helped its clients—including individual investors saving for retirement, pension plans, educational institutions, and charitable foundations and endowments—generate billions of dollars of investment returns. Additionally, through the leadership of the PIMCO Foundation, which was created and originally funded by Mr. Gross, PIMCO donates millions of dollars annually to ensure that communities throughout the world are empowered through education, health support, gender equity, and other programs vital for the connected 21(st) century.   PIMCO is also taking steps to ensure that the legacy and contributions of its founders, as both corporate and charitable citizens, are honored and preserved. To that end, PIMCO is dedicating a new  “Founders Room” in their honor at PIMCO’s Newport Beach headquarters. Additionally, the PIMCO Foundation is naming Mr. Gross a “Director Emeritus” and establishing an annual “Bill Gross Award” in recognition of his career-long dedication to the charitable endeavors that are at the heart of the Foundation’s mission.   “Bill Gross has always been larger-than-life,” said Dan Ivascyn, PIMCO’s Group Chief Investment Officer. “He has a well-deserved stellar reputation as an investor and a philanthropist. Bill has had an  enormous influence on PIMCO and the careers of many who have passed through its halls. He built this business from the ground up and we have great respect and admiration for his talents.”   The case was William H. Gross v. Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, et al., Orange County Superior Court Case No. 30-2015-00813636-CU-BC-CJC. Mr. Gross was represented by Patricia L.  Glaser, G. Jill Basinger and Rory S. Miller of Glaser Weil Fink Howard Avchen & Shapiro. PIMCO and Allianz Asset Management of America were represented by David Boies, Christopher E. Duffy, Scott R. Wilson, and Qian A. Gao of Boies Schiller Flexner LLP.

05 мая 2016, 01:03

Гросс: роботизация приведет к "социализму поневоле"

Билл Гросс, один из самых успешных управляющих за всю историю современных рынков облигаций, считает, что власти западных стран в дальнейшем будут вынуждены все активнее печатать деньги для поддержки своих экономик и населения.