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Japan Securities
09 декабря 2016, 18:45

Russia and the Threat to Liberal Democracy

How Vladimir Putin is making the world safe for autocracy

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01 декабря 2016, 10:36

BRIEF-Techno Alpha says shareholding structure change; wins bid worth 170 mln yen

* Says its president Tsutomu Aoshima's stake in co raised back to 11.4 percent as 94,500 shares returned by Japan Securities Finance Co LTD on Dec. 1

18 ноября 2016, 05:56

В 1968 году американская атомная субмарина отправилась со сверхсекретной миссией в Россию (и не вернулась)

В мае 1968 года американская ударная атомная подводная лодка отправилась с секретной миссией шпионить за советским военно-морским флотом. Через семь дней после получения этого приказа, когда семьи членов экипажа ждали у причала возвращения лодки «Скорпион», которая три месяца пробыла на боевой службе в море, командование ВМС поняло, что субмарина пропала. «Скорпион» стал жертвой таинственного инцидента, о характере которого спорят по сей день. Атомная подводная лодка ВМС США Scorpion была ударной субмариной типа Skipjack. Она стала одной из первых в Америке подводных лодок с «альбакоровской», или каплевидной формой корпуса, в отличие от более массивных лодок времен Второй мировой войны и послевоенного периода. Лодку заложили в августе 1958 года, а в строй она вошла в июле 1960 года. Субмарины типа Skipjack были меньше современных атомных подлодок. Они имели водоизмещение 3 075 тонн, длину 77 метров и ширину 9,5 метра. Экипаж насчитывал 99 человек, включая 12 офицеров и 87 матросов и старшин. В лодках этого типа впервые был применен атомный реактор фирмы Westinghouse S5W, который обеспечивал им максимальную надводную скорость 15 узлов, и подводную 33 узла. Основным вооружением лодок этого типа были самонаводящиеся противолодочные торпеды Mk-37. Лодка была оснащена гидролокатором активного самонаведения, имела дальность пуска 9 тысяч метров и скорость 26 узлов. Боевой заряд состоял из бинарных взрывчатых веществ с маркировкой HBX-3 и весом 150 килограммов. На момент пропажи лодке «Скорпион» было всего восемь лет, и по современным меркам она была довольно новой. Тем не менее экипаж довольно часто жаловался на нее, показывая тем самым, что субмарина уже устаревает. В 1998 году в журнале U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings появилась статья, в которой говорилось о том, что у лодки «Скорпион» на момент последнего похода было 109 невыполненных технических заданий. У нее имелись «хронические проблемы» с гидравликой, не работала система аварийного продувания, а аварийные запорные вентили забортной воды еще не были децентрализованы. В начале последнего похода из боевой рубки субмарины вытекло 5 680 литров масла, когда она вышла из залива Хэмптон Роудс. За два месяца до исчезновения лодки командир «Скорпиона» капитан третьего ранга Фрэнсис Этвуд Слэттери (Francis Atwood Slattery) подал срочную заявку на ремонт корпуса, отметив в своем рапорте, что он «находится в очень плохом состоянии». Он также выразил обеспокоенность в связи с протечкой вентилей, из-за чего субмарина не могла погружаться глубже 100 метров, хотя ее предельная глубина погружения была в три раза больше. Многие в ВМС называли эту лодку металлоломом. 20 мая командующий подводным флотом США в Атлантике отдал экипажу «Скорпиона» приказ вести наблюдение за соединением советских кораблей вблизи Канарских островов. Это соединение включало в свой состав подводную лодку проекта 675, спасательное судно, два гидрографических судна, эсминец и судно-заправщик. Командование считало, что это соединение осуществляет сейсмоакустические исследования надводных и подводных кораблей НАТО. 21 мая «Скорпион» доложил по радио свое местонахождение, сообщив ориентировочную дату возвращения в Норфолк — 27 мая. В докладе не было ничего необычного. К 28 мая командование ВМС поняло, что подводная лодка погибла. Предназначенная для обнаружения советских субмарин гидроакустическая противолодочная система SOSUS засекла мощный взрыв под водой. Позднее затонувшую лодку нашли на глубине 3 047 метров при помощи глубоководного батискафа. Обломки корпуса были разбросаны на площади 1 000×600 метров. Что же случилось со «Скорпионом»? В докладе ВМС США по этому инциденту не было окончательных выводов. Возникло несколько теорий по поводу гибели лодки и 99 членов ее экипажа, причем одна из них была конспирологической. Но все они были неубедительны и не имели твердых доказательств. Техническая консультативная группа, собранная в ВМС для изучения вещественных доказательств, выдвинула теорию о том, что лодка стала жертвой торпеды, которая случайно пришла в боевое состояние внутри торпедного аппарата. В отличие от других торпед, выбрасываемых газовой струей, эта Mk-37 медленнее и тише выплывала из торпедного аппарата, благодаря чему засечь лодку было невозможно. Эта теория подтверждается рядом сообщений о том, что в момент разрушения субмарина двигалась не в том направлении, которым должна была следовать для того, чтобы пришедшая в боевое состояние торпеда не могла развернуться на 180 градусов и навестись на собственную лодку. Согласно другой теории, сломался блок утилизации мусора, из-за чего в лодку попала вода и вошла в контакт с 69-тонной электрической батареей, что вызвало взрыв. На «Скорпионе» действительно должны были установить новый запор для системы утилизации мусора, и из-за сбоев в ее работе забортная вода в прошлом уже попадала внутрь корпуса. И наконец, согласно последней теории, на борту лодки произошел взрыв водорода во время или сразу после зарядки батарей. В момент взрыва субмарина находилась на перископной глубине, и вполне вероятно, что именно в том момент происходило запирание водонепроницаемых люков. Это был анахронизм из доядерной эпохи, и из-за запирания люков в аккумуляторном отсеке мог накопиться вызрывоопасный водород, что случается во время зарядки батарей. Одной-единственной искры достаточно, чтобы вызвать взрыв газа водорода, она и могла привести к детонации батарей. Это соответствует данным с шумопеленгаторов, которые зафиксировали два небольших взрыва с разницей в полсекунды. Конспирологическая теория состоит в том, что «Скорпион» ввязался в некую драку в манере холодной войны, и что лодку потопило соединение советских кораблей. В 1968 году затонуло необычайно много подводных лодок, в том числе израильская Dakar, французская Minerve и советская K-129. По мнению конспирологов, холодная война в морской пучине время от времени превращалась в войну вполне реальную, из-за чего было потеряно несколько субмарин. К сожалению, доказательств нет, как нет и объяснений того, каким образом советское соединение, в составе которого было всего два боевых корабля, сумело потопить довольно современную лодку «Скорпион». Убедительного и исчерпывающего объяснения гибели подводной лодки «Скорпион» скорее всего не будет никогда. Это вызывает сожаление, однако после того случая ВМС США не потеряли ни одной субмарины. Гибель «Трешера» и «Скорпиона» с 228 членами экипажа на борту стала тяжелым уроком для ВМС, но они его усвоили. От этого выиграли десятки тысяч подводников, которые благополучно вернулись домой из походов. Кайл Мизоками — специалист в области обороны и национальной безопасности. Живет и работает в Сан-Франциско, а его статьи публикуются в таких изданиях как Diplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring и Daily Beast. В 2009 году он стал одним из создателей блога Japan Security Watch.

17 ноября 2016, 10:38

Japan's Abe meets President-elect Trump: Implications for climate action in the Asia-Pacific and the Paris Agreement

Japan's Abe meets with President-elect Trump: Implications for climate action in the Asia-Pacific and the Paris Agreement Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit President-elect Trump this Thursday on 17 November in New York, on his way to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders' meeting to be held in Peru from 19-20 November. Such an early visit from a sitting Japanese Prime Minister to a President-elect of the United States is unprecedented. Why is Abe so eager to establish friendly relations with the President-to-be Trump and his Cabinet in waiting? There will be two major agenda items on Abe's wish list, both of which provide a turning point for US-Japan relations and the potential for a truly sustainable development path in the Asia-Pacific region. 1. The Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement A key plank of Prime Minister Abe's geo-strategic ambition and economic agenda for the Asia Pacific has been the fast-track of the TPP agreement. So much so, the Abe administration forced an early consideration of the draft legislation through Japan's lower house during the US election campaign at the expense of ratifying the Paris Climate Agreement, which was subsequently delayed. While Obama was a strong supporter and sponsor of the TPP, Trump has stated clearly his administration would promptly send the TPP to the dustbin. Without US ratification, the trade agreement will not meet the threshold for validity, which requires ratification among at least 6 signatories representing 85% of the GDP of all negotiating parties. Even party stalwarts in the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan have now come out saying the Agreement is likely dead in the water. This leaves Prime Minister Abe with no credible strategy to set the economic and trade agenda in the Asia Pacific in response to China's rising ascendancy. So what can Abe do on the economic front? First, give up on the TPP. Greater freedom for multi-national corporations will only serve to hasten the race to the bottom, increase inequality, while restricting the ability of states to reduce carbon pollution. Furthermore, excluding China from such a framework will only serve to increase tensions in East Asia, creating greater reason for China to pursue its own rule-making - just look at the South China Sea - and create an economic agenda centered around Chinese sponsored institutions (ie the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). Instead, Abe should take this opportunity to set an alternative regional economic path that does not rely on the United States and top-down rule making for the benefit of the few, but contributes to broad-based benefits for all. Such a framework must include cooperation with China in line with the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Climate Agreement. A new economic agenda needs to be set that will hasten the transition to a zero-emission economy by 2050 - engendering regional cooperation and technology transfer for a sustainable future. To do this, Abe will need to give up on so called "clean coal" and invest heavily in renewable energy technology. While Abe may be tempted to follow Trump's lead and dig in on coal and fossil fuel expansion - this will only serve to further isolate Japan and the US as climate laggards against the majority of global opinion, jeopardizing the success of the Paris Climate Agreement and a safe liveable planet for all. In the US case, Trump may act to lift carbon pollution restrictions under Obama's Clean Power Plan affecting the most dirty coal-fired power plants and ease leasing restrictions on public lands, however this will not in large impact the broader economics of coal - decreasing demand and rising costs versus increasing demands and lower costs for renewable energy development. In Japan's case, continuing massive government subsidies for coal development overseas may prolong its decline as the energy choice of the past, however soon enough the growing economies of Southeast Asia will demand cleaner, healthier alternatives. Domestically, plans to build 48 new coals plants are completely inconsistent with Japan's obligations under the Paris Agreement and will expose Japan to increasing international criticism for its intransigence. Following Trump's fossil fuel agenda is a sure path to climate catastrophe, economic decline, and stranded assets. Furthermore, deepening Japan's fossil fuel reliance will give a substantial boost to China's global leadership in renewable energy - giving China further soft power and market share as a champion for sustainable development in the region. Instead, Abe could utilize Japan Inc's reputation for reliable, high value technology and apply it to expanding Japan's market share of renewable energy technology and exports - an expanding need in the Asia-Pacific. This could be done in cooperation with progressive US States like California and global technology leaders who despite a Trump presidency will continue to aggressively support renewable energy development and innovation. This would at once put Japan in a leadership position in international affairs and improve its economic prospects as renewable energy demands grow throughout the region. This brings us to the second big-ticket item on Abe's checklist. 2. China and the US-Japan Alliance With Trump's victory, it is almost inevitable that the United States will move toward Trump style "America first" protectionism. This will antagonize China, and may negatively affect markets including Japan as China may be forced to retaliate if trade restrictions escalate. Trump's views on the US role in Asia is at best ambivalent, and a key concern for Abe is Trump's repeated calls for Japan to pay the full price for the United States protection, and off-the-cuff remarks that Japan and South Korea should hold nuclear weapons to counter the threat of North Korea. Whether this rhetoric will lead to any substantive change in bilateral relations with Japan is a moot point, however the Abe administration is anxious to emphasize the importance of the US-Japan Security Treaty and maintain the US presence in East Asia to counter China's growing power and influence. A cold reception from Trump on defence cooperation in Asia may force Abe to re-think strategic relations towards a more independent foreign policy. So what to do with China? Forget about "containment" - build regional security through cooperative action to stop climate change. China is already much too powerful for a zero-sum game. Instead of using trade as a weapon and maintaining antagonistic relations through military build up, move Japan towards greater cooperation with China for mutual economic prosperity and regional security. Rather than try to control trade rules without China's participation, Japan should work with China to bring about a more prosperous, sustainable and peaceful Asia Pacific region through increasing transparency and social and environmental protections for international investment in resilient zero carbon infrastructure - a win-win-win for national, bilateral and planetary good. Using the Paris Agreement coming into force as the catalyst, Abe could start with re-evaluating Japan's engagement with the AIIB as a new opportunity for Japanese firms to engage in building a 100% renewable energy-based Asia-Pacific. Continuing down the path of fossil fuel expansion will only lock in a dangerous warming world - the biggest threat to global security and economic welfare humans have faced. Repositioning Japan as a renewable energy leader in the Asia-Pacific The election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States gives Prime Minister Abe an opportunity to set an alternative geo-political and regional economic path that goes beyond the US-Japan alliance, and incorporates an ascendant China into a sustainable collective future for the Asia-Pacific. This means giving up on the TPP and coal technology exports while working with China to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement toward a more sustainable, peaceful and prosperous Asia-Pacific region - based on the renewable technologies of the future. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

17 ноября 2016, 06:40

Japan’s leader Abe heads to New York to meet Trump

Japan’s leader will likely seek reassurances that President-elect Donald Trump remains committed to the U.S.-Japan security alliance when the two meet in New York on Thursday.

23 августа 2016, 15:09

Доллар США дешевеет во вторник в ожидании выступления главы ФРС

Курс доллара США во вторник слабо снижается по отношению к большинству основных мировых валют, однако в целом трейдеры занимают осторожную позицию в ожидании новых сигналов от Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС), сообщает MarketWatch.

08 августа 2016, 05:29

The High Costs and Limited Benefits of America’s Alliances

Barry R. Posen Security, United States At at least $100 billion a year, and with all kinds of risks attached, they're a bad deal. The United States stands at the center of a far flung global alliance system, which commits it to defend the security of countries rich and poor, great and small, liberal and illiberal. The principal U.S. formal alliances are the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the U.S.-Japan security treaty, the Republic of Korea Treaty, and the Australia-New Zealand (ANZUS) treaty. The United States has less formal relationships with Israel and several Arab states, and many others around the world. The foreign-policy establishment insists that all of these alliances are central to our security. The reasons offered since the end of the Cold War to support this judgment are seldom clear, and the costs are always buried, if acknowledged at all. The value of U.S. alliances should be judged on their contribution to U.S. security--the ability to defend the safety, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of the United States. The combination of the inherent strengths of the U.S. economy, the nature of modern military technology--both nuclear and conventional, along with the American military's mastery of those technologies--and two vast ocean barriers, make it either unbelievably foolhardy or hugely difficult for others to constitute a major threat to the U.S. homeland. Given the relative ease of ensuring U.S. security without extensive help from others, it is a challenge to show that the security value of these alliances exceeds the costs and risks incurred for them. In no case do current allies directly "defend" the United States, though some do occupy important strategic geography, which contributes to our military power. At best, our allies defend themselves with vast assistance from the United States. What does this assistance cost? Costs The United States bears four principal costs for these alliances: 1) the direct military costs; 2) the costs of wars waged mainly for the purpose of reassuring these allies; 3) the nuclear risks necessary to "extend" nuclear deterrence to these allies and 4) the "moral hazard" consequences of security guarantees, which have the perverse effect of driving down the defense efforts of allies and further driving up U.S. military costs. Read full article

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23 июля 2016, 23:14

Business › Japan’s securities industry moves to tackle material information leaks

Japan's securities industry body will tackle leaks of unpublished corporate information with a new set of guidelines, day, a move that comes as the country grapples with how to ensure fair access to market-sensitive information. Under the Japan Securities Dealers Association's (JSDA) guidelines, analysts at brokerages will be banned from…

04 июля 2016, 15:15

The National Interest: как Варшавский пакт планировал победить Европу в третьей мировой войне

Представьте себе, как советские боевые дивизии в огромных количествах устремляются на территорию Германии...

05 мая 2016, 08:12

Почему Россия загнала НАТО в угол

Американский аналитик и военный эксперт Кайл Мизоками полагает, что самой страшной угрозой для существования НАТО является даже не сокращение военных расходов большинства стран альянса, а отсутствие общественной поддержки его основного принципа – концепции коллективной безопасностиThe post Почему Россия загнала НАТО в угол appeared first on MixedNews.

05 мая 2016, 08:12

Почему Россия загнала НАТО в угол

Американский аналитик и военный эксперт Кайл Мизоками полагает, что самой страшной угрозой для существования НАТО является даже не сокращение военных расходов большинства стран альянса, а отсутствие общественной поддержки его основного принципа – концепции коллективной безопасностиThe post Почему Россия загнала НАТО в угол appeared first on MixedNews.

05 мая 2016, 08:12

Почему Россия загнала НАТО в угол

Американский аналитик и военный эксперт Кайл Мизоками полагает, что самой страшной угрозой для существования НАТО является даже не сокращение военных расходов большинства стран альянса, а отсутствие общественной поддержки его основного принципа – концепции коллективной безопасностиThe post Почему Россия загнала НАТО в угол appeared first on MixedNews.

Выбор редакции
22 апреля 2016, 20:24

Is the Japan-U.S. Relationship Stronger than Isolationist Rhetoric?

japan_us.jpg Home Page News Page Signed in 1951, the US–Japan Security Treaty and the alliance it established have endured for over six decades and continue to play an instrumental role in shaping the regional security order. However, with Republican presidential nominee frontrunner Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ isolationist foreign policy views gaining traction in the United States, concerns are mounting over the future of the alliance. Signed in 1951, the US–Japan Security Treaty and the alliance it established have endured for over six decades and continue to play an instrumental role in shaping the regional security order. However, with Republican presidential nominee frontrunner Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ isolationist foreign policy views gaining traction in the United States, concerns are mounting over the future of the alliance. Signed in 1951, the US–Japan Security Treaty and the alliance it established have endured for over six decades and continue to play an instrumental role in shaping the regional security order. However, with Republican presidential nominee frontrunner Donald Trump’s ‘America first’ isolationist foreign policy views gaining traction in the United States, concerns are mounting over the future of the alliance. read more

16 марта 2016, 21:29

Not News: Saudi Arabia Objects to Being Called a 'Free Rider'

Christopher A. Preble Diplomacy, Middle East The case for America’s close alliance with Saudi Arabia is flimsy, at best. President Obama’s interview with the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg has generated a slew of commentary, including from some of America’s allies who came in for some rough treatment. Several were particularly stung by Obama’s characterization of them as “free riders.” Not all of America’s allies are content with forever being wards of Uncle Sam. For example, in a new Cato paper, Dartmouth’s Jennifer Lind describes Japan’s shift from buck-passing to burden-sharing. Lind will be visiting Cato later this month to discuss her findings and the implications for U.S. policy in East Asia. I’ll write more about the evolving U.S.-Japan security relationship next week. For now, I’d like to dwell on a very different U.S. ally: Saudi Arabia. Of all the cries of indignation over Obama’s comments regarding U.S. allies, perhaps none was as unintentionally amusing as the essay by Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal. Under the title “Mr. Obama, We Are not 'Free Riders'” the prince explains that the Saudis: “initiated the support—military, political and humanitarian—that is helping the Yemeni people reclaim their country from the murderous militia, the Houthis”; “are the biggest contributors to the humanitarian relief efforts to help refugees from Syria, Yemen and Iraq”; and “combat extremist ideology that attempts to hijack our religion, on all levels.” I suspect that the Yemeni people have a different view of the Saudi bombing campaign. But my personal favorite was this not very subtle dig, directed at President Obama: “Could it be that you are petulant about the Kingdom's efforts to support the Egyptian people when they rose against the Muslim Brothers' government and you supported it?” Read full article

07 февраля 2016, 18:35

UN Security Council condemns N Korea rocket launch

Council pledges to adopt new resolution with "significant" new sanctions following Pyongyang's launch.

29 декабря 2014, 10:00

A Six Point Plan to Solve the Senkaku Island Dispute

Michael O'Hanlon Diplomacy, Northeast Asia Before the next big flare up, here’s how Japan and China can solve the Senkaku/Diaoyu Island Dispute. What to do about those half dozen or so rock formations in the East China Sea, some of them previously used by encampments of fishermen but none presently inhabited and none truly inhabitable?   Although Japan and China seem to have temporarily calmed their headline-making disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islets, disagreement over sovereignty remains intense, and the pace of Chinese incursions into the immediate waters of the islands reportedly has not slowed. For China, the fact that Japan still controls the islands reflects an unfair post-World War II settlement over which it had no influence, and Japan’s current intransigence on the matter also suggests a lack of Japanese repentance for its WWII-era aggression. For Japan, China’s decision to invent new crises over a matter that had been solved, and that would seem to have little larger importance, suggests that a rising People’s Republic of China will be a potentially aggressive force in the region, not only about this issue but many others, for years and decades to come. Thus, compromise becomes difficult for both sides. Last month, I wrote an opinion article with Professor Akikazu Hashimoto of the J.F.Oberlin University Graduate School and Wu Xinbo of China’s Fudan University in Shanghai proposing a path forward.  I admire the courage of Hashimoto and Wu given how fraught, and emotional, this issue has become in the relations between their two countries.  And, of course, it concerns the United States as well.  Washington does not take a position on the question of who really owns the islands, but does recognize that Japan currently administers them and acknowledges that therefore the U.S.-Japan security treaty applies over these territories. This fact does not obligate the United States to any particular response in the event of a crisis but certainly implicates it in how any further flare-up might play out. Read full article

18 ноября 2014, 00:04

"Mystery of the Unexpected" Explained; Japan Slides Into Recession Yet Again; Blue Ribbon Panel in Review

With two consecutive quarters of contracting Gross Domestic Product, Japan is officially back in recession. GDP shrank 1.6% annualized. Unadjusted for price changes, the Japanese economy contracted an annualized 3 percent, the Cabinet Office said. None of this was "expected". We will explore "why" in a moment. First consider some headlines. Bloomberg: Japan Unexpectedly Enters Recession as Abe Weighs Tax. Wall Street Journal: Japan Falls Into Recession. GDP Declines 1.6%, Setting Stage for Delay in [Another] Sales-Tax Increase. Time: Japan Sinks Into Recession (Again). Time Reports ... An unexpected contraction in quarterly GDP shows that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s radical economic program is badly broken. GDP in the quarter ended September shrank by an annualized 1.6% — far, far worse than the consensus forecasts. That followed a disastrous 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter. Speculation in Japan is that the bad results will push Abe to call a snap election only two years after taking office. Financial Times: Sales Tax Tips Japan Back Into Recession Financial Times Reports ... Japan is poised for a snap election after its economy tipped into a technical recession, increasing the odds that prime minister Shinzo Abe will delay plans to raise the country’s sales tax next year and appeal for a fresh mandate. Monday’s preliminary data for the period between July and September was far worse than markets expected, showing the economy shrank 1.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter on an annualised basis. Analysts had expected growth of 2.2 per cent. The dip is a blow for “Abenomics”, the most ambitious attempt to revive Japan’s economy since it fell into stagnation two decades ago.Expectation vs. Reality Expectation: Last quarter's huge plunge was a one-time affair. Expectation: 2.2% growth this quarter.  Instead, Japan's economy shrank 1.6% and last quarter was revised lower from negative 7.1% to negative 7.3%. Blue Ribbon Panel in Review Flashback August 31, 2013: Japan Seeks to Hike Taxes then Waste Money on Stimulus to Make Up for Decline in Spending. My comment: "When you cherry pick a panel, and the panel has a pre-determined outcome, the answer always comes out the way you expect. Thus Abe's blue ribbon panel concluded tax hikes won't hurt. And for good measure, if by some chance they do, the panel suggested wasting those tax dollars on stimulus. Good grief!" Flashback April 30, 2014: Japan Output and New Orders Decline at Fastest Pace Since 2012; Abenomics in Review My Comment: "Abenomics said Japanese stimulus efforts would offset tax hikes. I disagreed. Although one month is not proof, Markit reports Japanese Output and New Orders Decline For First Time in 14 Months Following Tax Hike." Flashback September 8, 2014: Japanese Economy Contracts Bigger than Expected 7.1% in 2nd Quarter; Really Bad Theories My Comment: "By now it should be pretty clear that Abenomics is a complete failure. Abenomics did not spur lending, investment, hiring, or wage growth. It's one touted 'success' is that prices have gone up. And for cash-strapped consumers facing higher taxes, that alleged "success" is actually a disaster." In September, I also commented on "really bad theories". Really Bad Theories  "Theoretically, there should be no impact from the consumption tax increase on corporate spending or long-term corporate planning, but a large number of Japanese corporations seemed to see a large impact from the hike on final demand," said Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS Japan Securities in Tokyo. Good grief. Nishioka has theories, but they are as sound as a home foundation in a swamp. Here's an easy to understand explanation. Eight Point Explanation Japan's sales tax increased from 5% to 8%.Wages did not go up.Consumers have 3% less money to spend.Consumers with less money, spend less.Businesses faced with a slowdown in consumer spending reduce future plans.Abe plans to hike the sales tax again and businesses know that as well.Business sentiment sours.Japanese demographics are such that businesses already have substantial worries. What is it about those eight points that economist Nishioka fails to understand?Mystery Explained Why all of this is so "unexpected" is an apparent mystery. Sales tax hikes do not spur the economy, no matter how much of it government wastes. And it should not take a genius or an 8-point synopsis to figure that out. So why was this news so "unexpected" in nearly every quarter? I have two answers. Economists are the most optimistic lot on the planet. They believe what they want to believe.The average economist also believes in Monetarist and Keynesian fairy tales.  Japan is living proof of the absolute stupidity of Abenomics (a combination of Keynesian and Monetarist stupidity), yet academia, let by economist Paul Krugman concludes "Japan did not do enough". Apparently, debt to the tune of 250% of GDP fighting deflation was not enough. 500% would not have been enough either, for obvious reasons. But don't expect any Keynesian or Monetarist clowns to admit that. They will never stop believing in fairy tales. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comMike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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22 октября 2014, 01:45

Politics › Japan security adviser urges thaw in frosty ties with S Korea

Japan's top security adviser Shotaro Yachi called Tuesday for a thaw in relations with South Korea, which have soured over historical and territorial disputes. The visiting official also told his South Korean counterpart Kim Kwan-Jin that Tokyo would "closely cooperate" with Seoul in handling North Korea's nuclear program or in…

01 октября 2014, 15:25

Japan Stunned After Biggest Ever, $617 Billion "Fat Finger" Trading Error Slams Stocks

A few days ago, Bloomberg had a fascinating profile of the person, pardon degenerate Pachinko gambler, who goes under the name CIS, and who is the "mystery man who moves the Japanese market." In a nutshell, CIS, a momentum day trader and living proof of survivorship bias in finance (because for every CIS who has, allegedly, made it some 999,999 have failed) has amassed a fortune that he says now exceeds 16 billion yen after having traded 1.7 trillion yen in his career, generating an after tax profit of 6 billion yen in 2013 alone. Of course, the numbers are likely wildly fabricated for pageview purposes becuase as Bloomberg itself admits, "CIS didn’t offer a complete accounting of his investing returns and his wealth for this story, and some of his claims can’t be verified." That said, it is indeed the case that Japan has increasingly become a cartoon market in which while days can go by without a single trade taking place in its rigged bond market, where the BOJ has soaked up all the liquidity, when it comes to equities, it has become a free for all for "Mr. Watanabes" who have never taken finance, accounting or economics, but who know all about heatmaps and chasing momentum, and as a result, in a rising market/tide environment, have all grown ridiculously rich. The problem, of course, is that what some may call a market is anything but, and has become a fragile playground for a few technicians who move massive sums of money from Point A to Point B, hoping to outsmart the few remaining others, while in the process earning the rents that the BOJ is eagerly handing out by injecting liquidity at a pace that dwarfs what the Fed did for the past 2 years. The other problem is that it is a merely of time before everything crashes into a pile of smoldering rubble thanks to the unprecedented fragility that is now embedded in every market, although most likely in Japan first. Which leads us to what just happened in Japan when as Bloomberg reports, stock orders amounting to a whopping $617 billion (yes Bilion with a B) or more than the size of Sweden’s economy, were canceled in Japan earlier today, for reasons unknown although the early culprit is that this was one of the biggest trading errors of all time. Of course, since this trade was noted, and DKed, one can assume that a major whale was on the losing end of the trade: recall that this is precisely what happened to Goldman time and again, when some errant algo caused the firm to lose millions on several occasions in 2012 and 2013. There is one tiny difference: this time it was not Goldman, and the total amount was not a few paltry million but over half a trillion dollars! From Bloomberg: At 9:25 a.m. Tokyo time, orders for shares in 42 companies totaling 67.78 trillion yen ($617 billion) were canceled, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from the Japan Securities Dealers Association. A representative at the organization wasn’t immediately available to comment.   The biggest order was for 1.96 billion shares of Toyota Motor Corp., or 57 percent of outstanding shares at the world’s biggest carmaker, for 12.68 trillion yen through an off-exchange transaction. Toyota declined to comment. Other stocks with scrapped transactions included Honda Motor Co. (7267), Canon Inc., Sony Corp. and Nomura Holdings Inc.   “Fat finger” trading mistakes occur periodically. In 2009, UBS AG mistakenly ordered 3 trillion yen of Capcom Co. convertible bonds. Still, today’s scrapped trades were of a different magnitude.   “I’ve never heard of orders this big being canceled before,” said Ayako Sera, a Tokyo-based market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank Ltd., which oversees about $474 billion in assets. “There must have been an error.”   While no harm’s been done because the orders were canceled, there should be an explanation to alleviate concerns, Sera said.   “It’s not rocket science that there was a fat finger here, but it reopens the question about accountability,” said Gavin Parry, managing director at Hong Kong-based brokerage Parry International Trading Ltd. It may not be rocket science, but one wonders: just who has the potential to trade over half a trillion in market orders, let alone screw it up? Is it the Pachinko gambler... or the central bank itself screwing up its market orders? And just how much longer before such recurring incidents, whether in Japan or the US or Europe, force everyone to finally realize that the market is an HFT-rigged, central bank-manipulated and, now, completely broken casino. Actually, judging by retail participation in the recent "bull market"... ... the answer is: it already has.     

10 сентября 2014, 04:57

A Historic First: Bank Of Japan Monetizes Debt At Negative Rates

First, Europe infamously shifted to a NIRP and now Japan has begun NIRP monetization. As WSJ reports, Tuesday marked another milestone in the topsy-turvy world of monetary easing in Japan: The Bank of Japan bought short-term Japanese government debt at a negative yield for the first time. In the understatement of the decade, one Japanese bank strategist noted, "The BOJ probably didn't expect this would happen, and T-bill rates staying negative should be a cause of concern for them." The BoJ's decision to scoop up these negative-yielding bills appears to confirm they will meet the QQE-buying demands no matter what the cost (to the Japanese people). The bottom line, the Bank of Japan is now implicitly issuing debt to the Japanese Treasury.   As WSJ reports, The BOJ scooped up some of the three-month No. 477 Treasury bill, which has traded at a negative yield for the past two trading days amid strong demand, the market participants said.   ...   Traders said the bank wanted to show the market that it would meet its asset purchase goals–literally at whatever the cost.   ...   Market participants say the bank probably didn’t foresee buying Japanese debt at negative yields. But the European Central Bank’s easing has created demand for short-term Japanese debt from European investors, to the extent that interest rates have turned negative.   “The BOJ probably didn’t expect this would happen, and T-bill rates staying negative should be a cause of concern for them,” said Shogo Fujita, chief Japan bond strategist at Merrill Lynch Japan Securities Co. *  *  * So, in summary, normally, people who buy debt expect to get their money back plus some interest. Negative yield means the buyer gets back less than he or she puts in. In other words, the Bank of Japan is now ISSUING debt TO the Japanese Treasury.