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14 сентября, 18:02

JC Penney Stock Up 16% in a Month: Is the Gain Short-Lived?

J. C. Penney Company's (JCP) new loyalty program, top-line growth and store optimization plan bode well. However, decline in comparable sales has been a major concern for the investors.

22 августа, 23:25

Here's How The Next Recession Begins

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Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com, In 1886 there were only 38 states in the United States. Electric power was still cutting edge technology that few people had ever seen. The Statue of Liberty hadn’t even been dedicated yet. But it was that year that a man named Richard Sears founded a small retail company in Minneapolis, Minnesota that would grow into a retail juggernaut. Sears was truly the Amazon of its day. Even in the late 1800s the company was able to deliver just about any product you wanted right to your doorstep. This was no small feat considering the first delivery truck wouldn’t be invented until 1895. There was no transportation infrastructure. And two-thirds of the population lived in remote rural areas. Yet despite those challenges, Sears was still able to put any product you wanted in your hands. Over time as consumer trends changed, the company started opening physical retail stores. And once the concept of the ‘shopping mall’ became popular, Sears department stores became a mainstay at malls across America. To give you an idea of the size and dominance of Sears back at its peak– the company owned stock broker Dean Witter Reynolds (now part of Morgan Stanley), Coldwell Banker (real estate brokerage), Allstate Insurance (currently a $33 billion company) and it started the Discover card (a $22 billion company). Sears seemed unstoppable… a company so large and powerful that it would rule retail forever. Then Wal-Mart entered the scene. And after years of focusing on efficient logistics and cost savings, Wal Mart eventually outmaneuvered Sears to become the world’s largest retailer. By 2001, Wal-Mart’s revenues were about five times that of Sears. Then Amazon was founded… and consumers began changing their tastes to shop online. Sears totally missed the trend. And today the company is a tiny shell of its former self. Over the past three years alone, Sears has lost more than $5 billion. And its stock price is down nearly 75% since 2014. Plus the company has had to lay off more than half of its peak workforce, around 200,000 employees. To add insult to injury, the company spent about $6 billion over the past decade buying back its shares at prices as high as $174 a share. Shares now trade below $9. That’s a 95% loss to shareholders. Sears recently announced it will close an additional 43 stores (on top of the 265 closures it already announced this fiscal year). This will leave the company with 1,140 stores – just above half its 2012 size. This is a death spiral. And it could mean the sudden loss of 140,000 American jobs. And that’s just Sears. We could see several, large retailers shutter causing hundreds of thousands of lost jobs. Retailers have announced more than 3,200 store closures this year. And investment bank Credit Suisse expects that number will increase to more than 8,600 before the end of the year. For the sake of context, the WORST year on record for retail store closures was in 2008 when the global financial crisis kicked off. But even in 2008, only 6,163 retailers closed. Bear in mind that about one in 10 Americans works in retail. And given the rise of e-commerce, most of those retail jobs are going away. Quickly. E-commerce currently accounts for 9% of the approximately $22 trillion in annual retail sales, up from 0.6% in 1999. And that number is only growing. Most retail stores operate very LOW margin businesses. They rely on having LOTS of customers in order to stay profitable. If even a small percentage of their prospective customers stay home and shop online, they’re finished– from Sears all the way down to the small mom and pop stores. We could see hundreds of thousands of retail workers lose their jobs as companies like Sears fail. Sure, e-commerce will pick up some of the jobs. Large e-commerce companies like Amazon have had to quickly build infrastructure and warehouses to serve customers around the country. That requires lots of hiring. But it’s temporary work. Think of it this way: it took a lot of men to lay railroad tracks across the US. It takes far fewer workers to maintain the rail system. And as shipments increase, you simply run more cars across those tracks. Plus, e-commerce warehouses are becoming more automated and efficient, requiring less human labor than ever before. This sort of creative destruction and disruption isn’t anything to be afraid of; there aren’t exactly too many blacksmiths and buggy repairmen anymore either. Progress occasionally requires the decimation of entire industries, and that’s what’s happening now. In the long-run it’s better for everyone. But shorter-term, there’s going to be a lot of pain. Some of the largest and most vulnerable retailers include Sears, Macy’s and JC Penney, and in total those companies employ close to 400,000 people. All three of these companies could – and probably will – go bankrupt. But it would only take one of these stores going under (a near certainty) to roil the US economy. You may remember during the US Presidential campaign that candidates Trump and Clinton made a big deal about the declining number of coal jobs in the US. To put things in perspective, the US coal industry employs just over 76,000 workers. Sears alone employs almost double that amount. And the pace of job losses across the entire retail sector is gaining steam. The US economy has been in ‘recovery’ now for more than eight years, i.e. it’s been nearly 100 months since the end of the last recession. Yet the average time between recessions in modern US history is 57 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. In other words, the economy is overdue for a recession. And the rapid loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs could certainly end up triggering it.

11 августа, 13:43

Global Market Rout Spreads: VIX Marches Higher As China Stocks, Currency Plunge

The global rout resulting from tensions over the North Korean nuclear standoff continued on Friday as world stocks tumbled for the fourth day, on course for their worst week since November following a third day of escalating verbal exchanges between Trump and Kim, as European and Asian shares tumlbed, volatility spiked, and the selloff in US futures continued albeit at a more modest pace as the escalating war of words over North Korea drove investors on Friday to safe havens such as the yen, Swiss franc and gold. In addition to North Korea, attention will be closely focused on today's US CPI print, which could result in even more currency volatility, should it surprise significantly in either direction. "What has changed this time is that the scary threats and war of words between the U.S. and North Korea have intensified to the point that markets can't ignore it," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney. "Of course, it's all come at a time when share markets are due for a correction, so North Korea has provided a perfect trigger." All eyes remained on the sharp short squeeze in the VIX, which exploded more than 50% above 16 on Thursday from single digits the day before - the highest print since Trump's election victory - and extended gains on Friday rising nearly 5% to 16.80, after briefly topping 17, a potential "margin calling" nightmare for countless vol sellers over the past year. Thursday also saw the highest VIX volume day on record as 937K VIX futures traded across the curve. The Global Financial Stress Indicator surged positive after trading in negative territory since April. The global rout that sent the Nasdaq lower by 2% on Thursday, spread to China which saw the Shanghai Composite tumble by 1.6% to 3,208, its biggest drop this year, led by mining and resource stocks, with nearly 20 names halted limit down, after Chinese metals prices tumbled by 5%. The Chinese volatility index jumped by the most since January 2016 to its highest level in more than seven months. While there wasn't a specific catalyst for the rout, a driver for the sharp commodity selling was the announcement by the China Steel Industry Association which said the recent surge in steel futures was not due to market demand but misunderstanding by some institutions. Adding fuel to the fire was a Reuters report that the Shanghai Futures Exchange told its members it may raise margins on steel rebar contracts if market trade volume is too large. As a result, metals also led declines on the mainland CSI 300 Index: Xiamen Tungsten slides as much as 9.3%, most intraday since September; Jiangxi Copper falls as much as 8.3%; China Molybdenum slips as much as 7.7%; the Bloomberg China Steel Producers Valuation Peers Index tumbled 5.9%, with Nanjing Iron & Steel, Maanshan Iron & Steel, Angang Steel dropping at least 6.9%. "Chinese investors locked in profits on commodity shares following strong gains which had been driven by bets that capacity cuts would boost prices", said Helen Lau, Hong Kong-based analyst with Argonaut Securities. "Stock markets are in a risk-off mode due to escalating geopolitical risks, so recent outperformers would be the first to take a hit amid a selloff."  In HK trading Aluminum Corp. of China tumbles as much as 7.4%, the biggest intraday drop since February 2016, while China Shenhua Energy dropped as much as 4.8%, among the worst performers on Hang Seng Index. Also hurting Chinese sentiment was the plunge in Tencent, with the Chinese tech giant dropping as much as 5% in Hong Kong, its biggest intraday decline in more than a month, following news of a Chinese probe into Tencent, Sina and Baidu for cyber-security law violations.  Stocks of related tech companies were all lower with Sina down 3%, Weibo down 4.5%, and Baidu down 2.5%. Earlier in the session, the onshore Chinese yuan dropped as much as 0.43% vs USD to 6.7080, its biggest drop since Jan. 19, after the PBOC set the fixing at a weaker level than expected. As Bloomberg reported overnight, the PBOC strengthened fixing by 0.19% to 6.66420, compared with forecasts of 6.6477 from Commerzbank, 6.6552 from Mizuho Bank, 6.6559 from Scotiabank and 6.6549 from Nomura. At the same time, the offshore yuan dropped as much as 0.28% to 6.6853, most since June 26, although putting the drop in context, just one day earlier, the CNY rose to its strongest level since August 2016 on Thursday, prompting Bloomberg to call the Yuan the new "safe haven" currency. Elsewhere in Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan had skidded 1.55 percent, its biggest one-day loss since mid-December, to leave it down 2.5 percent for the week. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.2 percent at the close in Sydney. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong tumbled 2 percent and China’s Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.6 percent. The Japanese yen rose 0.2 percent to 108.96 per dollar, the strongest in more than 15 weeks. Japanese markets are closed for the Mountain Day public holiday. South Korea's KOSPI fell 1.8 percent to an 11-1/2-week low, but its losses for the week are a relatively modest 3.2 percent; volatility on the Kospi 200 surged as much as 27 percent. "Pretty remarkable, perhaps even extraordinary, considering," said fund manager BlueBay strategist Tim Ash. The Korean won also continued to skid, down 0.45 percent to 1,147.2, falling below its 200-day moving average for the first time in a month. European markets continued sliding into risk-off mode although at a slower pace; even so Europe's where regional indices were set for the worst week of losses this year as sentiment on ongoing fears about escalation between the US and North Korea. Euro zone volatility jumped to the highest since April, when France's election was rattling the region.  Weakness has been seen across the board (Eurostoxx 600 -1.0%), however mining names have notably underperforming amid Chinese metal prices slumping by some 5% overnight. The iTraxx Crossover extended its recent widening, leading sentiment as hedges are placed into the weekend. European equity markets opened lower led by mining sector, as base metals sell off heavily in Asia after a report saying the Shanghai exchange may raise margins on steel rebar contracts, which was later confirmed. DAX futures dip to approach 200-DMA, financials under pressure after HSBC warns low-vol environment could hit 2H revenues. CHF and JPY marginally outperform in G-10, EMFX weaker against USD across the board. Core fixed income extends rally and bund curve flattens further, yet UST/bund spread widens 3bps as USTs lag amid focus on U.S. CPI data which may add to the recent dollar pains should inflation come in weaker than expected. U.S. treasury yields fell to their lowest in more than six weeks ahead of inflation data expected to show a pickup in price growth, which could boost the chances of a further rate hike this year, while the Fed’s Kaplan and Kashkari are due to speak. The dollar declined against the Japanese yen for a fourth day as North Korea tensions remained elevated. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.19 percent, the lowest in more than six weeks. Germany’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to 0.38 percent, the lowest in more than six weeks. Oil was modestly higher even though the IEA cuts its OPEC demand estimates for this year and next year by by 400bpd after revising down its demand estimates going back to 2015, rejecting OPEC's own assessment of rising demand growth for the near future. Aside from North Korea, inflation data is where the market is most sensitive to a surprise at the moment, even if yesterday's weak US PPI doesn't suggest an imminent rise. For the US CPI today, consensus expected core CPI inflation to rise +0.2%, and should finally snap its streak of four consecutive monthly misses which could be important. As recent Fed statements have emphasized, policymakers will be monitoring near-term inflation trends closely. Hence, an in line print would provide tentative evidence that the recent downshift in core inflation may be behind us. New York Fed President William Dudley cautioned that it will “take some time” for inflation to reach the central bank’s 2 percent target, the latest official warning that price pressures remain muted. The Federal Reserve Bank Dallas President Fred Kaplan speaks this afternoon. Also today, Moody’s may publish a review of South Africa’s credit rating, two months after reducing its foreign- and local-currency assessments to one level above junk.  JC Penney, Magna International and Telus are due to release results. July consumer price data is also due later. Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk Geopolitical tensions continue to act as a driving force for markets amid the latest exchange between the US and NK This has seen downside in EU equities (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%) and a FTQ in other assets Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, Fed's Kashkari and Kaplan Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,434.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 1.0% to 372.26 DAX down 0.3% to 11,980 MSCI ASIA down 0.8% to 158.49 MSCI ASIA ex JAPAN down 1.5% to 515.81 Nikkei down 0.05% to 19,729.74 Topix down 0.04% to 1,617.25 Hang Seng Index down 2% to 26,883.51 Shanghai Composite down 1.6% to 3,208.54 Sensex down 1.1% to 31,193.00 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.2% to 5,693.14 Kospi down 1.7% to 2,319.71 German 10Y yield fell 3.5 bps to 0.38% Euro down 0.1% to 1.1759 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.9% to $51.45/bbl US 10Y yields unchanged at  2.19% Italian 10Y yield rose 2.1 bps to 1.743% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.452% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.70/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,287.31 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 93.44 Top Overnight News China Urges Restraint as Futures Slide; FOMC Voters to Speak After CPI Data; Snap Slammed Amid Facebook Pressure The escalating war of words between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un sent Asian markets tumbling as the region braced for more provocations from his regime next week President Donald Trump stepped up his campaign of pressure on North Korea, warning the regime not to follow through with a missile test near Guam and promising massive response to any strike against the U.S. or its allies Treasury yields may climb from a six-week low if Friday’s U.S. consumer- price data merely meet expectations, as the market is on high- alert for evidence that inflation is heating up and supporting the Fed’s case for higher interest rates For all the talk that Chair Janet Yellen’s plan to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet will hurt Treasuries, U.S. mortgage bonds face a bigger test The International Energy Agency cut estimates for the amount of crude needed from OPEC this year and in 2018, after lowering its historical assessments of consumption in emerging nations including China and India All that stands between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and a fourth term is six weeks of campaigning Morgan Stanley added its voice to a growing chorus of skepticism surrounding debt valuations, with Pacific Investment Management Co. writing in a report released Wednesday that investors should pare relatively expensive assets like corporate bonds in favor of safer investments like Treasuries Credit Suisse Group AG is barring its traders from buying or selling certain Venezuelan securities and business as the political and economic crisis in the South American country intensifies Gold advanced to the highest in two months as the spike in tensions between the U.S. and North Korea fanned demand, with hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio flagging rising risks, including “two confrontational, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders playing chicken with each other” President Donald Trump laid out a path for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to get back in his good graces: replace Obamacare, overhaul the U.S. tax code and find a way to pay for big infrastructure improvements RBA’s Lowe says next interest rate move likely up, but could be some time away; RBA prepared to intervene in A$ in ’extreme’ situations Snap, Blue Apron Fall Flat as the Incumbents Smash the Upstarts IEA Cuts Estimates for Crude Needed From OPEC This Year and Next Chinese Regulator Starts Probe Into Tencent, Weibo and Baidu Stolen 1MDB Funds Are Focus of U.S. Criminal Investigation Health Insurers Face Long Odds to Win Reprieve of Obamacare Tax U.S. Stocks Gain, Hong Kong Loses Weight in MSCI Indexes: SocGen FBI Says ISIS Used EBay to Send Cash to U.S.: WSJ Anbang Ownership Secrets Subject of U.S. Workers’ Complaint Hollywood Heads For Its Worst Summer Box Office in a Decade Asia stock markets were heavily pressured amid continued geopolitical tensions after further fighting talk between US and North Korea, which also saw US indices close negative for a 3rd consecutive day. The fresh goading came from both sides as US President Trump suggested his fire and fury comments maybe was not tough enough and warned North Korea to get its act together or it will be in trouble like few nations have ever been. This evoked a response from North Korea which vowed to mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs and stated the US will suffer a shameful defeat. As such, ASX 200 (-1.2%), KOSPI (-1.7%) Hang Seng (-2.0%) and Shanghai Comp (-1.7%) all traded with firm losses, while Nikkei 225 was shut due to public holiday. PBoC injected CNY 70bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 60bln in 14-day reverse repos, for a net weekly drain of CNY 30bln vs. CNY 40bln drain last week. Top Asian News War of Words Between Trump and Kim Has Asia Bracing for Conflict South Korean Banks Follow Won Lower Amid Rising Trump Rhetoric China Data Dump and Alternative Gauges Both Signal Steady Output Maker of India’s Aircraft Carrier Surges 22% on Trading Debut Biggest India Lender Slumps as Bad-Loan Surprise Hits Profit KKR Completes 26 Investments in China as of Aug. 1 Freeport Urged to Reinstate Workers to End Indonesian Strike India July Local Passenger Vehicle Sales Gain 15% Y/y to 298,997 BlackRock’s James Lenton Joins Fidelity as Trader in Hong Kong European indices are set for the worst week of losses this year as sentiment is weighed by the war of words between the US and North Korea. Weakness has been seen across the board (Eurostoxx 50 -1.0%), however mining names have notably underperforming amid Chinese metal prices slumping by some 5% overnight. EGBs supported by flight to quality with Bunds printing fresh session highs, while there had been reports of 5k lots tripping stops at 164.50. Peripherals underperform this morning, led by BTPs, subsequently the GER-ITA spread has widened to 162bps Top European News Morgan Stanley Makes ‘Multi-Year Call’ For Strong Euro on Reform Europe Miners Slump as Metals Fall on China Steel Body’s Warning Tullow Oil, Genel Energy Drop; GMP Cuts Both Stocks to Reduce Old Mutual First-Half Profit Climbs as Insurer’s Split Looms Merkel’s Bloc Holds All the Coalition Options in Latest Poll Buy BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse; Sell Barclays, Goldman Says Nordea Chairman Hints HQ Review Isn’t Limited to the Nordics In currencies, safe-haven support for the currency has continued as USD/JPY made a brief break below 109.00 overnight. Although, with the war of words showing no signs of stopping, JPY could make a push back to the April low at 108.11. So far, the pair have traded in a narrow range with investor focus for the USD shifting to the US inflation figures due out later in the session. AUD softened in Asian trade as commodities prices slipped. Crude prices fell over 0.5%, despite Saudi Arabia and Iraq's announcement to ensure that all major producers comply to the OPEC production cut, while Saudi also left the door open to deeper cuts. Additionally, Chinese iron ore prices fell some 5%, further weighed on the currency, subsequently pushing AUD to the mid 0.78. In commodities, China state run newspaper editorial comments state China will remain neutral if North Korea launches an attack on US, but if US strikes first and tries to overthrow North Korean government, China will stop them. Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Al-Falih stated the possibility for continuation of output cuts is on the table and if the size of cuts need to be adjusted, this will be examined and subject to approval by 24 countries. North Korea vows to mercilessly wipe out the provocateurs, says US will suffer a shameful defeat, according to North Korean state media. IEA raises 2017 global oil demand forecast to 1.5mln bpd vs. 1.4mln bpd, global oil supply rose by 520k, while OPEC compliance fell to 75%. Looking at the day ahead, the main focus will be its inflation stats for July, with expectations at 0.2% mom (for core) and 1.7% yoy. Onto other events, the Fed’s Kaplan and Fed’s Kashkari will also speak today. US Event calendar 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1% US CPI YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 1.6%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7% Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.09%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.8% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I'm hoping I'll be on this planet for as close to 36,525 days as I can get and I'm also hoping tomorrow will be the only day of that stint that I'm stupid enough to be picking up a brand new car with no miles on it. So in some ways it's exciting and in some way it’s very annoying as I vowed never to waste money on a new car. The twins have forced the issue and I'll be figuratively setting light to wads of bank notes as I roll out the forecourt. I'm driving 80 miles to Poole to collect it and I'm setting off very early as I have to get back to make sure everything is ready at home for the new arrival. The excitement is building, I'm very nervous and hopes and dreams come in abundance with such a fresh start. Yes Liverpool kick off their season at lunchtime tomorrow and I need to make sure I'm back in time to watch it. Wish me luck. The markets and more importantly the world is wishing for a bit of luck at the moment and a peaceful solution to the North Korean spat. The nuclear fallout from this week's high stakes geopolitical jaw boning couldn't completely unsettle markets on Wednesday but Thursday was a different story. We finally broke the 15 day run of sub 0.3% closes in either direction with the S&P 500 -1.45% after a day where the news we covered yesterday morning concerning North Korea's threat to attack Guam by mid-August increasingly spooked global investors as the day progressed. Mr Trump then raised the temperature another notch late in the US session last night, saying his ‘fire and fury” comment earlier in the week “wasn’t tough enough” and that “things will happen to them (NK) like they never thought possible..” and has “declined” to rule out a pre-emptive strike on NK, noting “we’ll see what happens”, all of which helped the US close at the lows for the session and shatter the recent low vol environment. Given the previous record low vol run was 10 days in 1966, if I do live to be 100 I'm statistically unlikely to witness anything like what we saw in the 15 days before yesterday. The S&P 500 had its worse day since mid-May this year when it fell 1.8%. Over at the Vix, the fear gauge broadly traded up most of the day and surged 44% higher to close at 16.04, which is actually the first day the index closed above 16 in CY2017. Across the pond, the Vstoxx was up 26% to 18.9, the highest level since April when Europe had heightened political risks in the run up to the French elections. Investors pushed safe haven assets higher again, with gold up 0.7% to a 9 week high, the Swiss franc up 0.1% (was +1.1% the day before) and JPY/USD +0.8% higher. Over in European government bonds, changes in core yields were more tempered following the ~5bp fall the day before. Bunds fell 1bp (2Y: unch; 10Y: -1bps), with Gilts down 3bps (2Y: +0.3bp; 10Y: -3bps) at the long end of the curve, while French OATs were broadly flat (2Y: unch; 10Y: -0.5bp). Peripheral bond yields were up slightly across the curve, with Italian BTPs (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +2bps) and Portuguese yields (2Y: -0.5bp; 10Y: +2bps) not sure whether they  were a flight to quality instrument or a high beta asset. Across the pond, the UST10Y fell 5bps yesterday (2Y -1bp) but is fairly flat this morning. In Asia, markets have continued to fall. The Kospi recovered a little to be 1.6% down as we type, the Won/USD dipping another 0.2%. The Hang Seng fell for the 3rd consecutive day (-1.9%), with Chinese bourses down 1.1% to 1.6%. We also got a glimpse of what China might be thinking, with the Global times (English paper under the People's Daily) writing that China should make clear that: i) it will stay neutral if the US retaliates after NK launches missile that threaten American soil, but ii) if countries try to overthrow the NK regime, China will prevent them from doing so. Moving on, if we can pull out attention away from the nuclear threat, inflation data is probably where the market is most sensitive to a surprise at the moment, even if yesterday's weak US PPI doesn't suggest an imminent rise. For the US CPI today, our economists expect core CPI inflation (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) should finally snap its streak of four consecutive monthly misses which could be important. They also remind us that as recent Fed statements have emphasized, policymakers will be monitoring near-term inflation trends closely. Hence, an in line print would provide tentative evidence that the recent downshift in core inflation may be behind us. Following on the theme of inflation, DB’s Luzzetti examined the impact of recent US dollar depreciation on the inflation outlook. Based on their own inflation models and analysis cited by Fed officials, they think that recent dollar weakness – assuming that it does not reverse – could lift year-over-year core PCE inflation by about 0.2pps by mid-2018 and 0.1pps by mid-2019. More details here. Turning to Europe, the flip-side of recent currency moves is discussed by DB’s Mark Wall who has written on how euro appreciation will be balanced against growth momentum in determining the ECB’s exit from QE. He argue that all else unchanged the euro’s appreciation since June could reduce the ECB staff core inflation forecast for 2019 from 1.7% yoy to 1.5% yoy. More details here Returning to the equity market sell-off in a little more depth, US bourses all weakened yesterday, with the S&P (-1.5%), the Dow (-0.9%) and the Nasdaq (-2.1%) sharply lower. Within the S&P, only the utilities sector was up (+0.3%) versus larger losses elsewhere (IT -2.2%; Financials -1.8%). European markets also fell across the board, the Stoxx 600 was down 1% to the lowest level since March with all sectors in the red. Across the region the FTSE 100 (-1.4%),  the DAX (-1.2%), Italian FTSE MIB (-0.8%) and CAC (-0.6%) were all lower. Currencies were mixed but little changed, the USD dollar index dipped 0.2% post the lower than expected PPI data. The Euro continued to edge ahead against the USD and Sterling, up 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while the Sterling/USD was down 0.2%. In commodities, WTI oil fell 2%, despite OPEC raising its demand forecast for oil and two of the largest OPEC producers (Saudi Arabia & Iraq) agreeing to strengthen their commitments to production cuts. Notably, Iraq's recent compliance to production targets is not exactly great (29% in July). Elsewhere, precious metals were modestly up (Gold +0.7%; Silver +1%) and aluminium continues to gain (Copper -0.3%; Aluminium +0.9%). Agricultural commodities were broadly lower, with corn, wheat and cotton all down ~4%, while soybeans, coffee and sugar were down ~3%. This follows a USDA report which suggest US farmers will produce more corn and soybeans than analyst forecasts. Away from the markets, Trump has made his disappointment with Senate majority leader McConnell well known, tweeting “can you believe that McConnell, who has screamed repeal & replace (Obamacare) for 7 years, couldn’t get it done…” and “…Mitch, get back to work…”. However, Trump was more conciliatory on special counsel Mueller, saying he “hasn’t given it any thought about firing Mueller” and that “I’m not dismissing anybody”. Elsewhere, NY Fed president Dudley cautioned that it will "take some time" for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target, which is consistent with comments made by his colleagues earlier in the week. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the July PPI report was softer than expected. The core measure (ex-food & energy aggregate) was -0.1% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 1.8% yoy (vs. 2.1% expected). The PPI for healthcare services, which is closely correlated with that within the PCE deflator, rose a steady 1.4% yoy. Elsewhere, claims data were mixed, with initial jobless claims up 3k to 244k (vs. 240k expected) and continuing claims at 1,951k (vs. 1,960k expected). In Europe,France’s June industrial production (IP) was modestly lower than expectations at -1.1% mom (vs. -0.6% expected, 1.9% previous) and 2.6% yoy (vs. 3.1% expected), while manufacturing production was slightly better at -0.9% mom (vs. -1% expected) and 3.3% yoy (vs. 3.2% expected), which is just a bit weaker than Markit PMI readings had foreshadowed. Over in UK, IP for June was higher than expectations at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 0.3% yoy (vs. -0.1% expected), while June manufacturing production was flat and in line, at 0% mom and 0.6% yoy. The UK’s trade deficit also unexpectedly widened in June as exports fell but imports rose. Looking at the day ahead, the final CPI figures for Germany (1.5% yoy expected), France (0.8% yoy expected) and Italy (1.2% yoy expected) will be released. Over in the US, the main focus will be its inflation stats for July, with expectations at 0.2% mom (for core) and 1.7% yoy. Onto other events, the Fed’s Kaplan and Fed’s Kashkari will also speak today.

10 августа, 17:36

Fourth Turning's Neil Howe Warns The Amazon-Walmart Rivalry Will Determine The Future Of Retail

Authored by Saeculum Research's Neil Howe, via MauldinEconomics.com, The two firms are aggressively scaling up and branching out: Who will rise as the rest of retail sinks? Amazon turned heads last month when it acquired Whole Foods for $13.7 billion. On the exact same day, Walmart announced its own $310 million purchase of clothing e-tailer Bonobos. The timing is no coincidence: As the de facto leaders of U.S. retail, Amazon and Walmart are each spending heavily in an attempt to unseat the other. Which company has the advantage? Amazon is a forward-thinking e-commerce heavyweight with many far-flung (if not profitable) business lines. Walmart is unmatched in brick-and-mortar retail, with a surging (if still small) e-commerce business. With the future headed online, investors are betting heavily on Amazon—but is this a mistake? The two retail giants have been stepping on each other’s toes lately. Amazon’s Whole Foods deal has been widely interpreted as a defensive move against Walmart’s thriving grocery business. Amazon is also playing offense: The company is going after Walmart’s predominately lower-income customer base by offering a discounted Amazon Prime membership to U.S. consumers who rely on government assistance. Walmart, meanwhile, has been even more aggressive. It all started when Walmart bought e-commerce firm Jet.com for $3.3 billion back in 2016. The company earlier this year rolled out free two-day shipping for all orders over $35, and is testing a pilot program that pays work­ers overtime for delivering packages on their commute home. Walmart is even barring some prospective tech vendors from building apps and services on top of Amazon’s cloud—and is telling its for-hire truck drivers that they cannot haul Amazon goods on the side. Each company has scored some direct hits in this battle. But which one is positioned to win the war? Amazon’s utter dominance of e-commerce sets it apart in an era when ever-more sales are moving online. As the leading e-tailer, Amazon has been the largest beneficiary of a massive shift online: Nearly half (43 percent) of all U.S. online retail sales take place on Amazon.com. One key ingredient to this success has been Prime, which now tallies 66 million subscribers—equal to roughly one in five U.S. consumers. Arguably the company’s greatest strength is its ability to build successful tech-enabled businesses seemingly from scratch. Take cloud computing. In a few short years, Amazon has transformed from a cloud newcomer to the unques­tioned market leader: Fully 57 percent of survey respondents say that their business is currently running appli­cations in Amazon Web Services, 23 percentage points ahead of Microsoft Azure. Meanwhile, Amazon Home Services—a platform on which home­owners can find credentialed experts to carry out a rebuild—is now competing with the likes of Lowe’s and Home Depot. (See 77: “Home Services, At Your Serv­ice.”) In 2012, Amazon even began renting out excess warehouses to create yet another profit stream. But for all of its success, Amazon has yet to generate much in the way of actual profits. Jeff Bezos is not interested in growing the company’s profit margin, but rather in keeping prices low in order to steadily gain market share—that is, grow faster than its competitors. With a lofty P/E ratio of 187.8, Amazon is clearly benefitting from investors who believe that the company will eventually focus on profitability. Such a huge bet on deferred earnings is fraught with downside risk. So what’s the argument for Walmart? First, it is still a much larger company, with revenues of nearly half a trillion dollars—nearly four times Amazon’s. That scale alone enables it to put a much bigger squeeze on suppliers than Amazon. Second, Walmart generates a large profit—and generates it today. Walmart (P/E of 17.0) is a better value proposition than the majority of the S&P 500 (average P/E of 21.6). The company is also a reliable dividend machine: Walmart will pay out dividends of $2.04 per share in 2018, marking the 44th consecutive year of dividend growth. Walmart’s main revenue driver is its brick-and-mortar retail business, which continues to gain steam amid a collapsing retail space. According to Credit Suisse, 2,800 U.S. brick-and-mortar retail stores closed up shop in Q1 2017, a record full-year pace. Commercial real estate firm CoStar reports that U.S. retailers must eliminate 1 million square feet of brick-and-mortar space just to grow their sales per square foot back to where it was a decade ago. In this low-margin environment, cost efficiency is key—and nobody does cost efficiency better than Walmart, a company that uses its clout to negotiate favorable deals with suppliers and finance its “Everyday Low Prices.” While mall anchors like Macy’s and JC Penney continue to announce store closures, Walmart plans to add 10,000 retail jobs and 59 new/renovated properties by the end of the fiscal year. So what does the future hold? Amazon certainly has the look and feel of a winner in the digital age. The company epitomizes a blue-zone, mold-breaking, Silicon Valley mindset. Its leaders aren’t afraid to spend big today to solve tomorrow’s problems. Walmart, on the other hand, was founded in the deep-red, lower-middle class Bentonville, Arkansas (where it still keeps its headquarters) and built upon the paradigm of penny-pinching—hardly the type of company that inspires effusive praise as a forward-thinking leader. But this line of thinking may be off the mark. For one, both companies acknowledge that tomorrow’s retail likely will be a blend of online and brick-and-mortar. As TechCrunch columnist Sarah Perez puts it, “Amazon wants to become Walmart before Walmart can become Amazon.” And the fact is that it may be easier—and cheaper—for Walmart to become Amazon. Walmart has already shown that it is willing to spend big on top tech talent. It would be a lot tougher, on the other hand, for Amazon to pour enough concrete to become a brick-and-mortar powerhouse while still maintaining the company’s culture. The assumption that Amazon is far ahead in the court of public opinion is also untrue. Decades ago, Walmart was panned for decimating communities with bargain-bin consumerism. But today, Amazon is reviled by many consumer advocates who say that its e-commerce dominance—powered by its robot-filled warehouses—is killing retail jobs. In an era when consumers pride themselves on buying local to support their community (see SI: “The New Localism”), Amazon represents a faceless global entity without roots. Even Millennials, who at first glance should be overwhelmingly pro-Amazon, show strong support for Walmart. According to YouGov BrandIndex, Walmart ranks as the fifth-favorite brand among Millennial consumers—just one spot behind Amazon and ahead of brands such as Netflix (#6) and Apple (#8). Why? Community-oriented Millennials likely realize the value of a company that creates 1.5 million U.S. jobs—and are won over by its ultra-low prices. Both companies may very well outperform the broader market in the years to come. But don’t be surprised if Walmart eventually emerges on top. And even if the homely Bentonville retailer does no more than stick around, that makes it a big long-short winner relative to its Seattle-based rival. TAKEAWAYS Take notice: The Amazon-Walmart rivalry will determine the future of retail. Each firm is making moves in the other’s area of expertise: Amazon bought Whole Foods to scale up in the grocery business, while Walmart is ramping up its own e-commerce capabilities. Which company has the upper hand? Conventional wisdom points to Amazon, which has a dominant foothold in a surging e-commerce space and owns a reputation as a forward-thinking market leader. But the future of retail will likely be a blend of online and brick-and-mortar—which favors Walmart. Why? It may be easier to acquire tech capabilities (i.e., buying talent) than a physical footprint (i.e., building thousands of stores). Keep in mind that market “duopolies” can save consumers money. Look at Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, two companies that together control roughly three-quarters of the soda market. Their duopoly status has helped to keep prices lower: The CPI for carbonated beverages has risen less than half as quickly as the CPI for all food since the early 1980s. Similarly, it’s easy to see how the Amazon-Walmart price wars are already benefitting consumers. In February, shoppers had to buy $49 worth of Amazon goods to qualify for free shipping. Today, that same perk costs just $25. Walmart.com shoppers can now save up to 5 percent on more than 1 million items through in-store pickup. Expect Amazon and Walmart to continue to play hardball with suppliers. All of these discounts come at a price—to vendors. Walmart recently told suppliers that it wants to offer the lowest price on 80 percent of the products that it sells—a feat that would require some suppliers to shave 15 percent off of their rates. Amazon is equally notorious for its tough negotiations. The company often threatens to boot unprofitable products (known as “CRaP,” short for “can’t realize a profit”) from its virtual store shelves if the vendor won’t budge on prices. Insiders suspect that this is why all Pampers products mysteriously disappeared from Amazon.com earlier this year. Keep tabs on the hotly contested grocery market. Today, Walmart controls more than one-quarter of the U.S. grocery market—more than double the share of its closest competitor (Kroger). But an influx of competition, especially from abroad, threatens this market share. German discount chain Lidl recently opened its first U.S. outposts, and its fellow German competitor Aldi is planning a $5 billion, 900-store U.S. expansion. Amazon’s Whole Foods acquisition will further turn up the heat on Walmart—though the move may be far more damaging to Target, which has been trying to get into the fresh grocery game for ages.

29 июня, 04:08

President Donald J. Trump Announces Intent to Nominate Personnel to Key Administration Posts

President Donald J. Trump today announced his intent to nominate the following individuals to key positions in his Administration: Brendan Carr of Virginia to be a Member of the Federal Communications Commission for the remainder of a 5-year term expiring June 13, 2018 and an additional term of 5 years expiring June 13, 2023.  Mr. Carr is currently the General Counsel of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). In that role, he serves as the chief legal advisor to the Commission and FCC staff on all matters within the agency’s jurisdiction.  Previously, he served as the lead advisor to FCC Commissioner Ajit Pai on wireless, public safety, and international issues.  Before that, Mr. Carr worked as an attorney in the FCC’s Office of General Counsel, where he provided advice on a broad range of wireless, public safety, and international matters.  Mr. Carr previously worked as an attorney at Wiley Rein LLP. Earlier in his career, Mr. Carr clerked for Judge Dennis W. Shedd of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit.  Mr. Carr holds a B.A. in Government from Georgetown University and a J.D., magna cum laude, as well as a Certificate in Communications Law Studies, from the Catholic University of America. Janet Dhillon of Pennsylvania to be a Member of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission for a 5-year term expiring on July 1, 2022, and designate chair upon confirmation.  Ms. Dhillon has served as General Counsel for three Fortune 500 companies.  She is currently Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of Burlington Stores, Inc.  Previously, Ms. Dhillon served as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of JC Penney Company, Inc., and before that, as Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer of US Airways Group, Inc.  Ms. Dhillon began her legal career at the law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP, where she practiced for thirteen years.  Ms. Dhillon is a graduate of Occidental College, magna cum laude, and the UCLA School of Law, where she was awarded Order of the Coif and ranked first in her class.  Ms. Dhillon lives in Newtown, Pennsylvania.  Richard Glick of Virginia to be a Member of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the remainder of a 5-year term expiring June 30, 2022.  Mr. Glick is General Counsel for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.  Prior to joining the Committee staff in February 2016, Mr. Glick was Vice President, Government Affairs for Iberdrola’s renewable energy, electric and gas utility, and natural gas storage businesses in the United States.  Mr. Glick previously served as a Director of Government Affairs for PPM Energy and before that was a Director, Government Affairs for PacifiCorp— a multistate electric utility company.  Between 1998 and 2001 Mr. Glick served as a Senior Policy Advisor to Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson.  Before that he was the Legislative Director and Chief Counsel to Senator Dale Bumpers, of Arkansas.  From 1988 to1992 Mr. Glick was an Associate with the law firm of Verner, Liipfert, Bernhard, McPherson and Hand.  Mr. Glick received a B.A. from George Washington University and a J.D. from the Georgetown University Law Center. Susan M. Gordon of Virginia to be Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence.  Ms. Gordon is the Deputy Director for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), assisting the Director in leading the agency and in managing the National System for Geospatial Intelligence.  Before joining NGA, Ms. Gordon served concurrently as Director of the CIA’s Information Operations Center and as the CIA Director’s senior advisor on cyber.  She was responsible for fully integrating advanced cyber capabilities into all of CIA’s mission areas, while protecting against the cyber threat to the CIA’s information, operations, and officers.  Ms. Gordon also served as Deputy Chief of the Information Operations Center from September 2009 to December 2011 and then as the CIA’s Director for Support from January 2012 to November 2013.  Ms. Gordon holds a B.S. in Zoology from Duke University.  She and her husband live in Northern Virginia, and have two grown children. Krishna R. Urs of Connecticut to be Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the United States of America to the Republic of Peru.  Mr. Urs, a career member of the Senior Foreign Service, class of Minister-Counselor, has served as an American diplomat since 1986.  He is currently Charge d’ Affaires of the U.S. Embassy in Madrid, Spain, where he was also the Deputy Chief of Mission.  During three decades of State Department service, Mr. Urs has specialized in economic issues and developed extensive policy experience in the Andean region of South America.  He has served at seven United States embassies as well in senior leadership positions in Washington, D.C.  Mr. Urs earned a M.S. from the University of Texas and a B.S. from Georgetown University.  He speaks fluent Spanish as well as some Hindi and Telegu.

27 июня, 18:13

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks At Bank's Annual Forum

ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks At Bank's Annual Forum

27 июня, 17:02

AWS 6/27: Central Bank Speeches and Google

EU fines Google $2.7 billion

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25 июня, 20:45

Amazon Didn't Kill JC Penney And Sears Jobs, Bad Leadership Did

The biggest job killer in American retailing isn’t the Amazon technology that features stores without cashiers. It’s bad leadership, which distances itself from its core customers; and the wave of store closures that sends everyone straight to the unemployment lines.

22 июня, 00:59

JC Penney Down 48% in 6 Months, What Are the Chances of Revival?

JC Penney's shares have declined a meager 0.4% in the past one month, which is an indication of possible recovery if the company continues to implement effective strategies.

15 июня, 10:45

Why Is J.C. Penney (JCP) Down 7.9% Since the Last Earnings Report?

J.C. Penney (JCP) reported earnings 30 days ago. What's next for the stock? We take a look at earnings estimates for some clues.

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09 июня, 20:20

"It's A Perfect Storm": List Of Retailers In Danger Of Bankruptcy Hits Record 22

The US retail sector continues to sink at an alarming rate, and according to the latest iteration of Moody's list of retailers who are in danger of filing for bankruptcy, there are now 22 distressed retailers whose troubled financials the rating agency believes could make them potential bankruptcy candidates in the near future, up substantially from just two months ago, and topping the 19 recorded at the peak of the Great Recession. According to Moody's analyst Charles O'Shea, legacy retailers such as Sears, Neiman Marcus and others on the rating agency's retail distress list, face a "perfect storm" and warned that "you're on the Andrea Gail right now, and the water's starting to get very choppy." The worst could be yet to come as the Moody's analyst writes that "the ranks of distressed retailers is set to keep growing over the next 12 to 18 months amid a secular shift in the industry." Moody's list consists of all retailers which have ratings of Caa or lower. That number has grown to 22, or approximately 15%, of the firm's retail and apparel universe. "When you're down there in C-a land, bankruptcy is a real possibility," O'Shea said. "The majority of retailers remain fundamentally healthy," said O'Shea, "But as select groups of retailers continue to deteriorate -- in particular department stores and specialty retailers -- we believe the distressed ranks will keep growing, fueled in part by distinct vulnerabilities within the B2/B3 retail population." Focusing on those retailers with imminent default risk, Moody's adds that of 42 B2/B3 rated issuers (as of April 30, 2017), seven face $1.1 billion of maturities for asset-based loans and revolving credit facilities over the next year- elevating the risk of default for already-stressed and distressed issuers should the strong refinancing pace driving recent high-yield issuance recede. Such a risk is underscored by Moody's US speculative-grade default forecast, which predicts a decline in the overall US speculative-grade default rate to 3% by April 2018 from 4.5% today, even as spec-grade retail and apparel default forecasts trend significantly higher, at 6.7% and 6.8%, respectively. Some of the highliights from the latest Moody's report Competitive challenges are intensifying and the credit erosion among more challenged retail sectors and individual retailers is crystallizing rapidly as more issuers file for bankruptcy and miss payments The competitive challenges weighing on earnings performance for bigger retailers like Amazon.com, Walmart Stores, Best Buy and Target will have potentially devastating ripple effects for smaller, more challenged retailers over the next several quarters Common characteristics of retail and apparel companies with lower credit ratings include stressed liquidity, weak quantitative credit profiles, challenged competitive positions, sponsor ownership and erratic management structure Liquidity is typically the driving force in the assessment of credit risk, and a key determinant in any drop into Caa/Ca territory. “Risk becomes more acute when a company is facing a meaningful debt maturity." Some names that figured previously on Moody's list have already filed for Chapter 11 protoection: among them discount footwear company Payless ShoeSource and Rue21, a teen fashion retailer, both filed for bankruptcy recently, while Gymboree, a specialty seller of children's apparel, missed its June 1 interest payment and is expected to announce its bankruptcy filing shortly. While landing on the distressed list of "super fallen angels" is not a death sentence, recently JC Penney managed to crawl out of it, the probability that a company will end up in bankruptcy rather than get its financial in orders is orders of magnitude greater.  "There are companies that come out of that," said O'Shea, who noted that iconic retailer J.C. Penney "was down there, and is now out," with an improved rating. Doing the math here, with one company "out" and everyone else eventually filing, restructuring lawyers are finally going to be busy after a nearly decade-long hiatus. Below is the full list of deeply distressed retailers: Boardriders SA  - sporting subsidiary of Quiksilver The Bon-Ton Stores - parent of department store chain Fairway Group Holdings - food retailer Tops Holding II - supermarket operator 99 Cents Only Stores - discount retailer TOMS Shoes - footwear company David's Bridal - wedding dresses and formalwear seller Evergreen AcqCo 1 LP - parent of thrift chain Savers Charming Charlie - women's jewelry and accessories Vince LLC - clothing retailer Calceus Acquisition - owner of Cole Haan footwear firm Charlotte Russe - women's clothing Neiman Marcus Group - luxury department store Sears Holdings - owner of Sears and Kmart. Indra Holdings - holding company owner of Totes Isotoner Velocity Pooling Vehicle - does business as MAG, Motorsport Aftermarket Group Chinos Intermediate Holdings - parent of J. Crew Group Everest Holdings - manages Eddie Bauer brand Nine West Holdings - clothing, shoes and accessories Claire's Stores - accessories and jewelry True Religion Apparel - men's and women's clothing Gymboree - children's apparel

02 июня, 15:53

США: рост занятости замедлился в мае, уровень безработицы упал до 16-летнего минимума

Рост занятости в США замедлился в мае, а рост занятости в предыдущие два месяца был не таким сильным, как сообщалось ранее, что свидетельствует о том, что рынок труда теряет импульс, несмотря на то, что уровень безработицы упал до 16-летнего минимума в 4,3 процента. В прошлом месяце количество рабочих мест в несельскохозяйственном секторе увеличилось на 138 000, поскольку производственные, правительственные и розничные сектора потеряли рабочие места, сообщило в пятницу Министерство труда. Данные за март и апрель были пересмотрены, чтобы показать на 66 000 меньше рабочих мест, чем сообщалось ранее. Число рабочих мест в мае отметилось резким замедлением с 181 000 среднемесячных значений за последние 12 месяцев. В то время как прирост за прошлый месяц может быть достаточным для того, чтобы Федрезерв повысил процентные ставки в этом месяце, скромный рост может вызвать озабоченность по поводу состояния экономики после того, как рост замедлился в первом квартале. Экономика должна создавать от 75 000 до 100 000 рабочих мест в месяц, чтобы не отставать от роста численности населения трудоспособного возраста. Рост рабочих мест замедляется, поскольку рынок труда приближается к полной занятости. Уровень безработицы упал на одну десятую процентного пункта до самого низкого уровня с мая 2001 года. В этом году он снизился на пять десятых процента. Падение в прошлом месяце произошло, когда люди покинули рабочую силу. Более мелкие и более неустойчивые обследования домашних хозяйств также показали снижение занятости. Отчет о занятости, который внимательно отслеживается, был опубликован менее чем за две недели до заседания ФРС 13-14 июня. Экономисты прогнозировали рост числа занятых на 182 000 рабочих мест в прошлом месяце, а уровень безработицы на уровне 4,4 процента. Протоколы заседания ФРС от 2-3 мая, которые были опубликованы на прошлой неделе, показали, что, хотя политики согласны с тем, что они должны удерживать ставки на повышение, пока не появится доказательство того, что замедление темпов роста является временным, «большинство участников» считают, что «скоро будет целесообразно» увеличить затрата по займам. Центральный банк США повысил процентные ставки на 25 базисных пунктов в марте. Данные о потребительских расходах и производстве свидетельствуют о том, что экономика начала расти в начале второго квартала после того, как валовой внутренний продукт в начале года увеличился на 1,2 процента в годовом исчислении. Федеральная резервная система Атланты прогнозирует рост ВВП со скоростью 4,0 процента во втором квартале. Но устойчиво вялый рост заработной платы может отбросить тень на дальнейшее ужесточение денежно-кредитной политики. Средний почасовой доход вырос на четыре цента или на 0,2 процента в мае после аналогичного повышения в апреле. Это привело к увеличению заработной платы в годовом исчислении на 2,5 процента. Среднестатистическое ежечасное повышение доходов происходит потому, что годовые темпы инфляции отступили в последние месяцы. Но в этом году рынок труда, как ожидается, достигнет полной занятости, и есть оптимизм в том, что рост заработной платы ускорится. Растет неопровержимое доказательство того, что компании пытаются найти квалифицированных рабочих. ФРС в своей Бежевой книге в среду заявила, что производственные фирмы в районе Чикаго сообщили о повышении заработной платы для неквалифицированных рабочих на 10 процентов для привлечения более качественных работников и сохранения своей рабочей силы. Президент от Республиканской партии Дональд Трамп, унаследовавший сильный рынок труда от администрации Обамы, пообещал резко повысить экономический рост и еще больше укрепить рынок труда, сократив налоги и сократив регулирование. Однако есть опасения, что политические скандалы могут сорвать экономическую повестку дня администрации Трампа. Доля участия рабочей силы или доля трудоспособных американцев, которые наняты или, по крайней мере, ищут работу, снизилась на две десятых процента до 62,7 процента. Показатель отскочил от многолетнего минимума в 62,4 процента в сентябре 2015 года, и экономисты видят ограниченные возможности для дальнейших успехов, так как пул разочарованных работников сокращается. В прошлом месяце занятость в производстве сократилась на 1000 рабочих мест, так как в автомобильном секторе зарплаты сократились на 1,5 тыс. при падении продаж. Ford Motor Co заявила, что в прошлом месяце она планировала сократить 1 400 рабочих мест в Северной Америке и Азии за счет добровольного досрочного выхода на пенсию и других финансовых стимулов. В прошлом месяце количество рабочих мест в сфере строительства выросло на 11 000 человек. Розничная занятость упала на 6 100, снизившись четвертый месяц подряд. Операторы универмагов, такие как JC Penney Co Inc, Macy's Inc и Abercrombie & Fitch борются с жесткой конкуренцией со стороны интернет-магазинов во главе с Amazon. В прошлом месяце правительственная занятость сократилась на 9 тыс. человек. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

28 мая, 23:45

Who Accepts Bitcoins As Payment? List Of Companies, Stores, Shops...

Submitted by Jonas Chokun via 99Bitcoins.com, Who accept bitcoins as payment? Bitcoins are taking over the crypto-currency marketplace. They’re the largest and most well-known digital currency. Many large companies are accepting bitcoins as a legitimate source of funds. They allow their online products to be bought with bitcoins. With the extreme facilitation of transfer and earning of bitcoins, it would be a mistake not to accept these new-found online coins as cash. With a fluctuating value, the funds can either help or hurt the company. This fluctuation of inflation can be a boon to business, unless the market is valuing the coins insanely high, sometimes reaching 1000$! So really who accepts bitcoins? List of Companies Who Accepts Bitcoins as Payment! Many companies are accepting bitcoins, many are not. Here is a list of the biggest (and smaller) names who accepts bitcoins as a currency. WordPress.com – An online company that allows user to create free blogs Overstock.com – A company that sells big ticket items at lower prices due to overstocking Subway – Eat fresh Microsoft – Users can buy content with Bitcoin on Xbox and Windows store Reddit – You can buy premium features there with bitcoins Virgin Galactic – Richard Branson company that includes Virgin Mobile and Virgin Airline OkCupid – Online dating site Tigerdirect – Major electronic online retailer Namecheap – Domain name registrar CheapAir.com – Travel booking site for airline tickets, car rentals, hotels Expedia.com – Online travel booking agency Gyft – Buy giftcards using Bitcoin Newegg.com – Online electronics retailer now uses bitpay to accept bitcoin as payment Dell – American privately owned multinational computer technology company  Wikipedia –  The Free Encyclopedia with 4 570 000+ article Steam – Desktop gaming platform Alza – Largest Czech online retailer The Internet Archive – web documatation company Bitcoin.Travel – a travel site that provides accommodation, apartments, attractions, bars, and beauty salons around the world Pembury Tavern – A pub in London, England  Old Fitzroy – A pub in Sydney, Australia The Pink Cow – A diner in Tokyo, Japan The Pirate Bay – BitTorrent directories Zynga – Mobile gaming 4Chan.org – For premium services EZTV – Torrents TV shows provider Mega.co.nz – The new venture started by the former owner of MegaUpload Kim Dotcom Lumfile – Free cloud base file server – pay for premium services Etsy Vendors – 93 of them PizzaForCoins.com – Domino’s Pizza signed up – pay for their pizza with bitcons Whole Foods – Organic food store (by purchasing gift card from Gyft) Bitcoincoffee.com – Buy your favorite coffee online Grass Hill Alpacas – A local farm in Haydenville, MA Jeffersons Store – A street wear clothing store in Bergenfield, N.J Helen’s Pizza – Jersey City, N.J., you can get a slice  of pizza for 0.00339 bitcoin by pointing your phone at a sign next to the cash register A Class Limousine – Pick you up and drop you off at Newark (N.J.) Airport Seoclerks.com – Get SEO work done on your site cheap Mint.com – Mint pulls all your financial accounts into one place. Set a budget, track your goals and do more Fancy.com – Discover amazing stuff, collect the things you love, buy it all in one place (Source: Fancy) Bloomberg.com – Online newspaper Humblebundle.com – Indie game site BigFishGames.com – Games for PC, Mac and Smartphones (iPhone, Android, Windows) Suntimes.com – Chicago based online newspaper San Jose Earthquakes – San Jose California Professional Soccer Team (MLS) Square – Payment processor that help small businesses accept credit cards using iPhone, Android or iPad Crowdtilt.com – The fastest and easiest way to pool funds with family and friends (Source: crowdtilt) Lumfile – Server company that offers free cloud-based servers Museum of the Coastal Bend – 2200 East Red River Street, Victoria, Texas 77901, USA Gap, GameStop and JC Penney – have to use eGifter.com Etsy Vendors – Original art and Jewelry creations Fight for the Future – Leading organization finding for Internet freedom i-Pmart (ipmart.com.my) – A Malaysian online mobile phone and electronic parts retailer curryupnow.com – A total of 12 restaurants on the list of restaurants accept bitcoins in San Francisco Bay Area Dish Network – An American direct-broadcast satellite service provider The Libertarian Party – United States political party Yacht-base.com – Croatian yacht charter company Euro Pacific – A major precious metal dealer CEX – The trade-in chain has a shop in Glasgow, Scotland that accepts bitcoin Straub Auto Repairs – 477 Warburton Ave, Hastings-on-Hudson, NY 10706 – (914) 478-1177 PSP Mollie – Dutch Payment Service Intuit – an American software company that develops financial and tax preparation software and related services for small businesses, accountants and individuals. ShopJoy – An Australian online retailer that sells novelty and unique gifts Lv.net – Las Vegas high speed internet services ExpressVPN.com – High speed, ultra secure VPN network Grooveshark – Online music streaming service based in the United States Braintree – Well known payments processor MIT Coop Store – Massachusetts Institute of Technology student bookstore SimplePay – Nigeria’s most popular web and mobile-based wallet service SFU bookstore – Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, Canada State Republican Party – First State Republican Party to accept bitcoin donations (http://www.lagop.com/bitcoin-donate) mspinc.com – Respiratory medical equipment supplies store Shopify.com – An online store that allows anyone to sell their products Famsa – Mexico’s biggest retailer Naughty America – Adult entertainment provider Mexico’s Universidad de las Américas Puebla – A major university in Mexico LOT Polish Airlines – A worldwide airline based in Poland MovieTickets.com – Online movie ticket exchange/retailer Dream Lover – Online relationship service Lionsgate Films – The production studio behind titles such as The Hunger Games and The Day After Tomorrow Rakutan – A Japanese e-commerce giant Badoo – Online dating network RE/MAX London – UK-based franchisee of the global real estate network T-Mobile Poland – T-Mobile’s Poland-based mobile phone top-up company Stripe – San Francisco-based payments company WebJet – Online travel agency Green Man Gaming – Popular digital game reseller Save the Children  – Global charity organization NCR Silver – Point of sales systems One Shot Hotels – Spanish hotel chain Coupa Café in Palo Alto PureVPN – VPN provider That’s my face – create action figures Foodler – North American restaurant delivery company Amagi Metals – Precious metal furnisher Note: More who accepts bitcoins companies, stores, merchants will be added as they’re announced! With many companies accepting the change and others getting ready to, bitcoins are an extremely fast-spreading currency. Small businesses aren’t missing out on the action; many small shops have made the switch as well. QR codes are the biggest help in real-world bitcoin transfers. Using a smartphone and a Bitcoin wallet app, a user scans a label and presses a small buttoned aptly named “spend.” The list above is a current list of who accepts bitcoins. We’ll keep adding to this list as more companies get on board! Transferring digital funds is becoming easier with the day by the use of growing technology. Smartphones and tablets make a cold, online transfer of money a more personal one. Many retail stores carry gift cards that can be bought with paper money. You plug a code into an online wallet, and the funds will be transferred to you. Though not all companies have made the switch, most have taken notice of the quick trend. The New York Times, a newspaper company, is currently looking for third party affiliates to help host the bitcoin currency. This is just a small example, there is no doubt many more companies are making the switch. Even newly legal pot shops in Washington are beginning to back the bitcoin as a viable currency. Some companies have lingering doubt, due to the infancy of the market. Only introduced 5 years ago, Bitcoin is still growing. Without a government backing the cash, the value fluctuates rapidly. Though some companies have taken the risk, some still doubt the currency. Additional SMBs that accept Bitcoin can be found here.

24 мая, 16:30

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights: Spirit Realty Capital, CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, New Senior Investment Group and FelCor Lodging Trust

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights: Spirit Realty Capital, CorEnergy Infrastructure Trust, New Senior Investment Group and FelCor Lodging Trust

24 мая, 00:48

Why Betting on REITs Could Be Risky Now

Why Betting on REITs Could Be Risky Now

23 мая, 17:02

All the Ways Retail's Decline Could Hurt American Towns

As brick-and-mortar stores close, local governments in struggling regions lose much-needed tax revenues.

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18 мая, 15:34

JC Penney to expand mattress showrooms, adding 300 stores by early fall

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

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18 мая, 15:33

JC Penney is staffing outside sales force to work on hotel business

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

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18 мая, 15:33

JC Penney says U.S. hospitality industry is worth about $200 bln annually

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

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18 мая, 15:32

JC Penney to expand its home refresh initiative to hotel and lodging industry

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.