The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Amazon, Macy’s, JC Penney’s, Kohl’s and Dillard’s
Most of us are generally familiar with the concept of just-in-time inventory, but ecommerce giant Amazon (AMZN) is now set to take that concept to a whole new level.
David Bartosiak give us his thoughts on Skechers (SKX) before they report earnings with some ideas on how to play the Options Market.
From Transparent to Billions, LGBT characters are more visible than ever. As TV’s first non-binary actor Asia Kate Dillon explains, the future looks brightWhen EastEnders co-creator Tony Holland was a jobbing television producer in 1975, he took a sitcom idea to the head of Thames Television drama, Verity Lambert. The comedy would rest on a gay couple whose emotional wellbeing was complicated by their class divide. It was to be called The Unlikely Lads. Lambert scored a hit later that year with the wonderful TV adaptation of Quentin Crisp’s memoir, The Naked Civil Servant. At the time, Lambert deferred on Holland’s project, contending that two shows with a central gay thread a year would be one too many for the socially conservative British public taste. The idea would come to fruition a decade on in the characters of Colin and Barry on EastEnders, the first gay men to kiss on a British soap opera.Twenty-two years later, Ellen DeGeneres caused shockwaves across America by breaking the glass closet, declaring her lesbianism on her sitcom, Ellen – a first for US TV. The bedding, homeware and clothing giant JC Penney cut its advertising. Death threats followed. Yet in the ensuing 20 years, Ellen has become not just one of the most powerful women in the American entertainment canon but the most recognisable public face of a new vanguard raising visibility and awareness of LGBT people on TV. Continue reading...
Josh Tillman says he has given himself permission to self-destruct again. He talks about turning his latest album, Pure Comedy, into an ‘insane’ musical – and why Trump’s victory was like the Gen-X humour he was weaned on ‘having a cruel orgasm’ in his mindOne wintry evening in London, Josh Tillman, the American singer-songwriter better known as Father John Misty, is sitting on a hotel balcony and talking about Leaving LA, the intensely personal 13-minute-long song he performed on BBC 6 Music a few hours earlier. To be precise, he is talking about the ninth verse, which he wrote after trying to identify the source of his tragicomic worldview. It’s a true story, or as true as any childhood memory can be.He remembers being six, growing up in a repressive, evangelical family in Rockville, Maryland. He remembers choking on a piece of watermelon candy in the department store JC Penney. He remembers his emotionally distant mother holding him tight, for once, and screaming for help. And he remembers Fleetwood Mac’s Little Lies playing over the store’s PA. Continue reading...
The retail sector has the lowest Zacks Sector Rank with more of negative earnings estimate revision in recent past, indicating a bearish outlook and negative investor sentiment.
Authored by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org, Consumerism has long been a defining element of American society, but retail giants are now shutting down thousands of their locations amid a long-anticipated “retail apocalypse." BI reports that over the next couple months, more than 3,500 stores are expected to close: “Department stores like JCPenney, Macy’s, Sears, and Kmart are among the companies shutting down stores, along with middle-of-the-mall chains like Crocs, BCBG, Abercrombie & Fitch, and Guess.” Some stores, like Bebe and The Limited, are closing all of their locations to focus more on online sales. Other larger chains, like JC Penney, are “aggressively paring down their store counts to unload unprofitable locations and try to staunch losses,” Business Insider notes. Sears and K-Mart are following a similar trajectory moving forward. Sears is shutting down 150 Sears and Kmart locations, about 10% of their shops. JCPenney is shutting down 138 stores, about 14% of their total locations. These closures are the consequence of several different factors. First, the United States has more shopping mall square footage per person than other parts of the world. In America, retailers reserve 23.5 square feet per person; in Canada and Australia, the countries with the second- and third-most space have 16.4 and 11.1, respectively. Another reason retail brick and mortars are failing is the growth of e-commerce. Between 2010 and 2013, visits to shopping malls declined 50%, according to data from real estate research firm Cushman and Wakefield. Meanwhile, online sales from huge online outposts, like Amazon, have exploded. Back in 2015, Forbes observed this trend: “Earlier this year, the stock market value of Amazon.com surpassed that of Walmart, a turn of events that many saw as indicative of how badly brick-and-mortar big box retailers have lagged behind in building up their e-commerce.” “Walmart is now hustling to bridge the gap, pouring billions into its tech to claw back some market share. Target, also a laggard, is similarly spending as much on tech as on its 1,800 stores. Both those companies, though, generate digital sales that are still only a small percentage of total sales, and a fraction of Amazon’s.” At that time, Business Insider noted: “The list of failures is getting longer by the day. Macy’s? Cooked – down 42% over the past six months. Nordstrom? Down 20% over the same timeframe. Dick’s Sporting Goods? Awful earnings sent this athletic retailer lower more than 10% yesterday alone. There’s absolutely no way to sugarcoat it—the retail sector is crashing.” Though Americans increasingly prefer to shop online, their preferences are also changing. Shoppers are choosing to spend their money on “restaurants, travel, and technology than ever before, while spending less on apparel and accessories,” Business Insider reports. Further, as longtime retail analyst Howard Davidowitz observed in 2014, “What’s going on is the customers don’t have the fucking money. That’s it. This isn’t rocket science.” As prosperity declines, shopping habits shift, and major retailers like Macy’s, Sears, and JCPenney close their doors, their decisions are likely to have ripple effects on smaller stores in shopping malls. Business Insider explains that in addition to dwindling attendance and income for mall owners, major department store closures can trigger “‘co-tenancy clauses’ that allow the other mall tenants to terminate their leases or renegotiate the terms, typically with a period of lower rents, until another retailer moves into the anchor space.” As fewer retail giants seek retail space, many malls are facing dire fates, and many expect low-performing malls to be hit hardest by the changing scope of retail, noting roughly 30% of malls will face increased risk of shutting down. Shopping malls first became popular in the economically fruitful era of the 1950s and 60s. Inspired by major department stores of the 19th century — like Sears and Macy’s, which are now struggling — 20th-century malls grew rapidly, in part, because of government subsidies provided in the form of tax breaks. Smithsonian Magazine has explained that over the decades, real estate developers overshot their expectations, constructing increasing numbers of malls despite a lack of population growth. By 1999, the downward trend we see intensifying today had already begun: “Shopping centers that hadn’t been renovated in years began to show signs of wear and tear, and the middle-aged, middle-class shoppers that once flooded their shops began to disappear, turning the once sterile suburban shopping centers into perceived havens for crime. Increasingly rundown and redundant, malls started turning into ghost towns—first losing shoppers and then losing stores.” Almost twenty years later, the trend has only intensified, and retailers are evidently bracing for an even deeper plunge. As CNBC noted earlier this year: “At $12.7 billion, U.S. department store revenue is $7.2 billion lower than it was in 2001, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Expect these trends to continue.”
Розничные продажи в США зафиксировали наименьший рост за шесть месяцев в феврале, поскольку домохозяйства сократили закупки автомобилей и дискреционные расходы (сверх жизненно необходимых).
Розничные продажи в США зафиксировали наименьший рост за шесть месяцев в феврале, поскольку домохозяйства сократили закупки автомобилей и дискреционные расходы (сверх жизненно необходимых).
Via Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform blog, “The older I grow, the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.” – H.L. Mencken “The older I get the less I listen to what people say and the more I look at what they do.”– Andrew Carnegie I’m 53 years old. The older I get the less sure I am about things I was sure about when I was 25 years old. I believed stocks for the long run was an unquestioned truth. I believed our economy was based on free market capitalism. I believed stock prices were based upon profits and cash flows. I believed a home was a place to live – not an investment. I believed the Catholic Church was run by good men doing good things. I believed journalists and the media were watchdogs working on behalf of the public. I believed our military was protecting our interests. I believed politicians legislated on behalf of the people. I believed the main purpose of bankers was to loan money to businesses and consumers in order to support economic growth. Boy, was I dumbass. My skeptical nature, reliance on data I’ve personally vetted, and judging our leaders based on what they have done versus what they say, has allowed me to escape the Matrix. I wasn’t truly awakened until I watched Bush, Cheney, Powell, the rest of the neo-con prevaricators and fake news mainstream media utilize propaganda to railroad Americans into a $6 trillion unnecessary war, resulting in 36,000 American casualties, the destruction of a country and the creation of thousands of new Muslim terrorists. I’ve spent the last fourteen years pushing back against the establishment narrative, documenting the fake data published by government apparatchiks, and trying to open the eyes of as many people as possible to the propaganda utilized by the Deep State to keep the ignorant masses dazed, confused and distracted. The country is in deep trouble because what the majority believe regarding the economy, politics, religion, and culture just ain’t so. “What gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know. It’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain Since the start of this year I’ve found myself in a mental funk. I’m tired of the lies. I’m tired of incessant media propaganda. I’m tired of politicians. I’m tired of economic experts. I’m tired of hucksters touting their “the end is near” tale to sell me something. I’m tired of faux mainstream media journalists and their whining about Trump being mean and threatening the First Amendment. They don’t know jack about the First Amendment, as they work for one of the six media conglomerates whose job it is to produce fake news supporting whatever narrative keeps their Deep State benefactors in power. Regurgitating lines written for them by corporate propagandists is not journalism and has absolutely no relationship to the First Amendment. Over the last decade the only place to find some truth has been the alternative media thriving on the uncensored internet. That’s why the establishment wants to regulate the internet. The fake news blitz by a Deep State, flailing about trying to retain their power and wealth, has reached frantic proportions. The left wingers, egged on by Obama and funded by Soros, hold increasingly inane protests with themes like: wear a vagina hat to support feminazis; hug an illegal immigrant; everyone I hate is a Nazi; and women take another day off and no one notices. The traitorous neo-con warmongers like McCain, Graham, and Kristol see their enormously profitable never ending global conflict agenda at risk. The military industrial complex needs enemies. The left wingers and neo-cons have joined forces to utilize the fake Russian election intervention propaganda in a last ditch desperate attempt to derail the Trump presidency before it starts. The relentlessness, bitterness, and blatant disregard for the truth exhibited by Trump’s vast array of opponents have made TV virtually unwatchable. I’ve found myself mentally checking out. Why waste mental energy debating hacks, mental midgets and paid trolls for the establishment? After spending years obliterating fake government statistics on a daily basis, I find continuing to do so is just mental masturbation with no ultimate satisfaction. Confronting left wingers and neo-cons is like wresting with a pig, you both get dirty and the pig likes it. I’ve always been an observer. I’ve been observing how certain both sides are regarding their positions on illegal immigration, Muslims, Russia, Obamacare, Supreme Court nominees, executive orders, jobs, taxes, climate change, school choice, oil pipelines the First Amendment, Second Amendment, the rule of law, and the Bill of Rights. I find it exhausting. We’re lost in a blizzard of lies. I’m not certain about anything. I will remain skeptical of everything uttered by all politicians, all government bureaucrats, all corporate executives, all central bankers, all media pundits, all religious leaders, all corporate paid journalists and especially Wall Street shysters. “Moral certainty is always a sign of cultural inferiority. The more uncivilized the man, the surer he is that he knows precisely what is right and what is wrong. All human progress, even in morals, has been the work of men who have doubted the current moral values, not of men who have whooped them up and tried to enforce them. The truly civilized man is always skeptical and tolerant, in this field as in all others. His culture is based on “I am not too sure.” – H.L. Mencken The dissonance between what I have been observing and what is being flogged by the establishment mouthpieces in the corporate mainstream media has never been greater. Some of my observations are anecdotal, others are based on real unadulterated truthful data, a few are based on simple common sense and the rest are based on my understanding of what happens during Fourth Turnings. When you understand the cyclical nature of history you are not surprised when events lead to reactions among the masses which take the linear thinking status quo by complete surprise. The 2008 global financial implosion and the subsequent election of Donald J. Trump by the deplorable white silent majority completely blindsided the oblivious establishment, but were entirely predictable if you had studied previous Fourth Turnings throughout history. I’ve been making a horrific sixty mile round trip commute into Philly for the last ten years. The average daily commute has been about two hours, as the entire route has been under some sort of construction for the entire decade. A fantastic one way commute is forty five minutes. I regularly have ninety minute commutes, and I’ve experienced a few which breached the two hour mark. It became immediately evident to me something changed as this new year got under way. My morning and evening commute has been consistently in the forty-five minute range for the last two months. There are less cars and trucks on the road. The question is why? This only happened once before over the last decade – during the 2008/2009 recession. In a shocking correlation (especially for brain dead tax and spend liberals), when there are less jobs, there are less drivers on the roads going to work. I tried to think of other reasonable explanations for why traffic appeared to be contracting so dramatically. But lo and behold, certain data can’t be easily manipulated by the government. Gasoline demand is plunging, with the year over year trend crashing to levels last experienced during the 2001 recession. Gasoline demand was higher during the 2008/2009 crisis. Demand was higher when oil was over $100 per barrel. Based on this crash in gasoline demand, Goldman Sachs issued a report saying we should be in a recession. Total miles driven are dramatically slowing down. It’s not because of electric cars or fuel efficiency, as the vast majority of the 17.5 million vehicles being hawked to the math challenged driving public (using low payment leases and six year 0% loans) are pickups, SUVs, or luxury sedans. The Fed induced and subprime debt fueled frenzy of vehicle sales (aka long – term rentals) has seen vehicle sales skyrocket from 10 million in 2010 to an all-time high above 17.5 million in 2016, while auto loan debt has soared from $700 billion to over $1.1 trillion during this same time frame. The truthfulness of the 17.5 million sales number may be in question, as dealer lots are stuffed with record levels of inventory. With a record number of cars in the hands of consumers, how could gasoline usage and miles driven crash? More questions emerge to those with critical thinking skills. If the unemployment rate is really 4.8%, how could 40% of the employable population (102 million) not be working? This explains the lack of cars on the road during my commute. Obama and his minions jabber about the tremendous jobs recovery during his reign of error. In 2007 there were 122 million full-time workers among a working age population of 233 million, or 52.3%. After Obama’s eight year economic “recovery”, there are 125 million full-time workers among a working age population of 254 million, or 49.2%. We’ve added 3 million full-time jobs in the last 9 years, and the captured mainstream media touts this as a success story. The deceitfulness – it burns. When 125 million full-time workers, of which 22 million are non-producing government drones, have to support 102 million non-working Americans, most living on the dole, you have a financially unsustainable paradigm. Trump’s slogan should be Make Americans Get Off Their Fat Asses and Work Again. The explanation for the plunge in gasoline demand and miles driven is quite simple if you haven’t drunk the mainstream media kool-aid about the fantastic economy, low unemployment, and soaring consumer confidence. Americans drive their vehicles to work, to shop, and to eat out. Truckers are the backbone of our just in time big box retail society. If Americans are driving less, there are less people with jobs, less spending at bricks and mortar retailers, and fewer people eating out. If truckers are logging less miles, retailers are ordering less inventory, manufacturers are selling less widgets, and the economy is contracting. The entire economic improvement narrative is based on soft data about feelings from consumer confidence surveys and dozens of other easily manipulated surveys. Propagandists are experts at convincing clueless dolts it’s raining when their government is actually pissing down their backs. Despite government reports about expanding retail sales and strong holiday sales, real info from real retailers tells the true story. Major retailers have announced 1,500 store closings in the first two months of 2017, including: JC Penney – 140 stores Sears – 150 stores Macy’s – 68 stores HHGregg – 88 stores The Limited – 250 stores Abercrombie & Fitch – 60 stores Wet Seal – 171 stores CVS – 70 stores Kohl’s, Target, Macy’s, Sears, and dozens of other retailers reported awful holiday sales. Wal-Mart was lauded for generating a 1% comparable store sales increase. There is virtually no store expansion by large retail chains. During the 2000 to 2007 period these chains were each opening hundreds of new stores per year. We are in the midst of a long term retail contraction which is just picking up steam. The closure of these stores combined with rising interest rates are a toxic concoction for real estate mall developers. The Fed allowed them to extend and pretend for the last eight years. The jig is up. A wave of retail and mall bankruptcies is baked in the cake. The government reported retail sales growth is driven by Fed induced auto sales (leases and loans), home furnishing sales financed at 0% over five years, building materials stores offering 0% financing, Amazon and until recently restaurant and bar sales. Since I don’t go into malls or many retail establishments, and rarely eat at chain restaurants, my observations of retail and restaurant traffic are based on how full their parking lots are at peak hours. When the economy was in bubble mode prior to 2008, mall parking lots were jammed and you had a ninety minute wait to get a seat at Outback or Olive Garden. Today, you can get a parking spot at a big box retailer near the front door on a Saturday afternoon. Malls are ghost towns, with Space Available as the hot new location. Except for peak dinner time on a Friday or Saturday (if then) there are no longer long waits to get a table at one of the struggling chain restaurants. We reached peak retail and peak overpriced restaurants a few years ago. The downward spiral, due to demographics, declining real income, and over-saturation, is irreversible. As usual, with propaganda distributed by the government or industry organizations, they present a positive restaurant performance index based on false hope and delusional expectations. Restaurant chains like Applebees, Outback, Ruby Tuesday, Chilis, Buffalo Wild Wings and many other major chains have been reporting declining same restaurant sales. Industry comparable restaurant sales are lower than two years ago. Outback’s parent company announced it will close more than four dozen locations of Outback Steakhouse, Bonefish Grill, Carrabba’s Italian Grill and Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse. Ruby Tuesday is closing 100 locations. Despite government reports showing strong restaurant sales over the last eight years, annual traffic to U.S. restaurants has been flat or up just 1% since 2009, when there was a 2% drop in the wake of the Fed created financial crisis. The “increase” in sales was generated by price increases of 2% to 3% per year. Now these chains are paying the price for high prices, shitty food, and poor service from their college graduate millennial staff. With higher taxes, soaring Obamacare costs, student loan and auto loan debt up to their eyeballs, and low paying service jobs as their career, even clueless millennials have gotten a clue – they don’t have the money to eat out four times per week. Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows the majority of Americans have fallen further behind since 2009, with only the establishment and those leaching off the establishment profiting from the suffering of senior citizens and the former middle class. When real personal spending plummets at the highest rate since 2009, you just might be in the midst of a recession. As consumer confidence surveys, ISM surveys and Fed surveys provide fake news about consumer and corporate feelings about a glorious future, the hard data tells the truth. How could households feel confident when real median household income fell by $558 in December and is down by $529 year over year? How could Obama and his lapdogs in the mainstream media pontificate about the record economic recovery when real median income is 2% lower than it was nine years ago? How can anyone deny the average American household has been experiencing a depression since 2000, when real median household income is lower today than it was at the turn of the century? Do you think the lack of income growth over the last 17 years may have played a part in the deplorables electing Trump in November? The corporate fake news media will continue to produce the false narrative as directed by their Deep State employers. The credibility of journalists can be summed up in two pithy sentences by Hunter S. Thompson. “The press is a gang of cruel faggots. Journalism is not a profession or a trade. It is a cheap catch-all for fuckoffs and misfits—a false doorway to the backside of life, a filthy piss-ridden little hole nailed off by the building inspector, but just deep enough for a wino to curl up from the sidewalk and masturbate like a chimp in a zoo-cage.” – Hunter S. Thompson – Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas In Part Two of this article I’ll show how the Deep State/establishment/ruling class/status quo have utilized their mastery of propaganda techniques to convince the masses inflation and debt are beneficial to their interests and why Trump’s election is the pushback by a citizenry who are beginning to awake and are mad as hell.
Shares of retail real estate investment trusts (REITs) took a hit on Feb 24 as J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) declared its plan to shut down 130-140 stores over the next few months.
J. C. Penney Company Inc. (JCP) reported mixed quarterly numbers in fourth-quarter fiscal 2016, wherein earnings exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues marginally came in below.
But by far the most important point here is that all of the above applies exactly and equally to trade. It makes us richer and it happens only because we desire it. We don't pass laws insisting that we must buy Bibles from stores not websites, but we do about steel from American plants not foreign.
A strategic mistake made six years ago by celebrity CEO Ron Johnson continues to haunt popular retailer JC Penney, as evidenced by the ongoing sluggish sales growth and store closings that have made the company smaller—a fraction of what it once was.
JC Penney's earnings announcement suggests not only that the company's turnaround efforts aren't gaining sufficient traction, but that the whole sector needs to consolidate further before profits can be sustained.
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