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15 сентября, 17:15

Could North Korea Shoot Down the U.S. Air Force in a War?

Dave Majumdar Security, Is this possible?  It is not clear how many KN-06 SAM batteries Pyongyang has built, but the North Korean weapon is a surprisingly capable system that is similar to early model versions of the Russian-built S-300. “No one knows exactly how many such systems exist,” Kashin said. “The KN-06 has phased array radar and tracks via missile guidance system and maybe equivalent to the early S-300P versions but with greater range.” If the Trump Administration chooses to intervene in North Korea, the White House may discover that Pyongyang is a more formidable adversary than many might expect. Aside from the reclusive regime’s nuclear weapons, Kim Jong-un’s hermit kingdom boasts air defenses that are more advanced than many might realize. Moreover, Pyongyang has also taken steps to increase its resilience against any aerial onslaught that that United States might launch in the event of war. The so-called Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has not forgotten the lessons of the Korean War–which technically has not yet ended. “Between 1950 and 1953, the U.S. Air Force and Navy flattened North Korea, so the NORKS have had 65 years to think about how to make sure that does not happen again and dig lots of bomb proof shelters and tunnels,” retired Rear Adm. Mike McDevitt, a senior fellow at the Center for Naval Analyses, told The National Interest. But aside from hardening its facilities, Pyongyang fields more advanced air defenses than one might assume. While the overwhelming majority of North Korean air defenses are older Soviet systems, Pyongyang does field some surprisingly capable indigenous weapons. “They have a mix of old Soviet SAMs [surface-to-air missiles], including the S-75, S-125, S-200 and Kvadrat, which are likely in more or less good condition,” Vasily Kashin, a senior fellow at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics told The National Interest. “They used to produce the S-75 themselves—and those could have received some significant upgrades. In addition to them, since early the 2010s they are fielding an indigenous modern SAM system which is called KN-06 by South Korea and the U.S.” Read full article

15 сентября, 17:08

Is North Korea's Air Force a Big Threat or Totally Obsolete?

Dave Majumdar Security, Asia What we know.  While old, the An-2 is one still an effective SOF support machines due to its low radar cross-section, ability to fly low and slow under the radar and rugged construction. “North Korean SOF are among the most highly trained, well-equipped, best-fed, and highly motivated forces in the KPA. As North Korea’s conventional capabilities decline relative to the ROK and United States, North Korea appears to increasingly regard SOF capabilities as vital for asymmetric coercion,” the report states. “SOF may be airlifted by An-2 COLT or helicopters (and possibly Civil Air Administration transports), moved by maritime insertion platforms, or travel on foot over land or via suspected underground, cross-DMZ tunnels to attack high-value targets like command and control nodes or air bases in the ROK.” The Korean People's Army Air Force is perhaps the least threatening branch of Pyongyang’s military forces. However, while technologically backwards and often lacking the level of proficiency of Western air forces (with pilots often receiving fewer than 20 annual flight hours), the KPAAF does have a few strong points. As with many North Korean facilities, most KPAAF air bases are hardened to withstand air attacks and the country has a large number of aircraft available. “The North Korean Air Force (NKAF), a fleet of more than 1,300 aircraft that are primarily legacy Soviet models, is primarily responsible for defending North Korean air space,” reads a Pentagon report to the Congress on the state of North Korea’s military in 2015. “Its other missions include SOF insertion, transportation and logistics support, reconnaissance, and tactical air support for KPA [Korean People’s Army] ground forces. However, because of the technological inferiority of most of its aircraft fleet and rigid air defense command and control structure, much of North Korea’s air defense is provided by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and antiaircraft artillery (AAA).” Read full article

27 июня, 16:33

Delta Air Lines & Korean Air Ink Trans-Pacific Joint Venture

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) and Korean Air have recently signed an agreement to create a leading trans-Pacific joint venture connecting the U.S. and Asia.

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23 июня, 13:32

Большинство фондовых индексов Азии выросли

Большинство фондовых индексов Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР) по итогам торгов в пятницу выросли, рынок материкового Китая развернулся из-за вмешательства госфондов в ход торгов и к закрытию сессии вышел в плюс, сообщает агентство Bloomberg.

23 июня, 03:18

To Deal with the Russians, America Must Think Like the Russians

Bruce Allyn Security, Europe The risk of nuclear miscalculation is now higher than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis. There’s a simple way to avoid it. THE CURRENT low point in U.S.-Russia relations echoes the worst days of the Cold War. In March 1983, President Ronald Reagan called the USSR an “evil empire,” provoking a bitter reaction from Soviet leader Yuri Andropov and the Politburo, which declared in June that the U.S. media was at the “highest, most hysterical pitch.” In September, a MIG fighter shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, which had strayed into Soviet airspace, killing 269 innocent people. In November, according to a declassified top-secret U.S. intelligence review, Andropov put Soviet nuclear forces on a “hair trigger,” fearing that the United States was about to launch a first strike under cover of the NATO military exercise “Able Archer.” Recent studies suggest that the November event was not as dangerous as often portrayed, but experts agree that the risk of inadvertent war was extremely high. Fear of a nuclear war unleashed by miscalculation, Russian insecurity or an accident in time of crisis was a factor that pushed Reagan and Margaret Thatcher to engage the Russians to end the Cold War. This June, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin angrily denounced the “hysteria” in Washington and in the U.S. media. Again, bitter accusations and scorn abound. Both U.S. and Russian experts now agree that once again there is a heightened risk of unintended nuclear war—much higher than in the early 1980s—but this danger is not as widely perceived as it was back then. There is less awareness, less alarm. Few people know as much about nuclear policy as William J. Perry, a former secretary of defense. He has been on a crusade this year, warning, “We are starting a new Cold War. We seem to be sleepwalking into this new nuclear arms race. . . . We and the Russians and others don’t understand what we are doing.” Read full article

22 июня, 16:40

Экономика: Америка обошла Европу на авиасалоне в Ле Бурже

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Впервые с 2012 года американскому Boeing удалось обойти европейский Airbus по объемам заказов на авиасалоне в Ле Бурже. Американцы заключили контракты на вдвое большую сумму. Российская новинка МС-21, которая призвана разрушить дуополию американцев и европейцев на мировом рынке, пока теряется рядом с акулами рынка. Американская компания Boeing впервые за пять лет опередила европейский Airbus по объему заказов на авиасалоне в Ле Бурже. За три дня авиасалона Boeing получил заказы и предварительные заявки на 370 самолетов общей стоимостью 52 млрд долларов. Тогда как Airbus – заказы лишь на 229 самолетов общей стоимостью 25 млрд долларов. Это произошло впервые с 2012 года, сообщает Bloomberg. Boeing выиграла благодаря повышенному интересу покупателей к Max 10, число заказов и предварительных заявок на который достигло 336. Самолет 737 Max 10 – это новая версия узкофюзеляжного лайнера. Это крупнейший самолет в своем классе. Сделать самолет больше попросили Boeing сами клиенты. Американцы изначально сделали ставку на этот лайнер в надежде вернуть себе рыночную долю, которую ранее отвоевал Airbus. И не прогадали. Еще в первый день авиасалона в Boeing рассчитывали на получение заказов на 240 самолетов Max 10. Однако спрос оказался значительно выше: подписаны контракты на поставку 336 Max 10. Каталожная цена лайнера составляет 124,7 млн долларов, но покупатели часто получают скидки. Самолет должен поступить в обслуживание авиакомпаний в 2020 году. Крупные узкофюзеляжные лайнеры завоевали популярность у покупателей. В прошлом году около 65% контрактов европейского Airbus на узкофюзеляжные лайнеры были представлены наиболее крупной версией – A321neo. Airbus надеялся и в этом году сохранить лидерство в этом сегменте. Однако Boeing со своей новой моделью наносит сокрушительный удар. По исследованиям Boeing, в ближайшие 20 лет рост продаж будет отмечаться именно в узкофюзеляжном сегменте – благодаря лоукостерам и развивающимся рынкам. Чем более крупные узкофюзеляжные самолеты привлекают авиакомпании? Во-первых, их стоимость значительно меньше, чем у широкофюзеляжных самолетов. Во-вторых, они могут летать по таким привлекательным маршрутам, как от побережья до побережья США, и даже совершать менее длительные трансатлантические перелеты. В-третьих, это экономически выгодней. Авиакомпании предпочитают модели с увеличенным количеством кресел, поскольку это позволяет им распределять издержки на большее число пассажиров, что, как правило, увеличивает выручку, когда самолеты заполнены полностью. Модель Max 10 от Boeing может перевозить до 230 пассажиров. Самолет Airbus вмещает 240 пассажиров. И хотя в Airbus уверяли, что их самолет будет иметь большую дальность полета и более низкие издержки в расчете на одно кресло, чем конкурент Boeing, судя по продажам, это не сработало. Да и самим Boeing и Airbus выгодней продавать более крупные узкофюзеляжные лайнеры. Расходы на разработку и производство нового самолета относительно низкие из-за сходства с менее крупными версиями, зато при продаже авиакомпании могут получить премию за чуть более большой самолет. «Boeing сделал то, чего ждал от него рынок, в частности Korean Air и другие лояльные клиенты: создал мощный самолет в узкофюзеляжном сегменте, который дешевле широкофюзеляжного и пользуется большим спросом у покупателей. Max 10 позволит сэкономить 5% на перелете по сравнению с ближайшим конкурентом – A321neo, притом что число мест у него почти такое же. Новые двигатели и улучшение аэродинамических показателей должны снизить расход топлива на 14%», – говорит первый вице-президент Российского союза инженеров Иван Андриевский. Еще один важный итог авиасалона в Ле Бурже – это серьезный общий объем заказов двух авиастроителей, чуть менее чем на 80 млрд долларов. Для сравнения: на авиасалоне в Фарнборо в прошлом году объем заказов и предварительных заявок на самолеты Boeing и Airbus составил только 50 млрд долларов, что стало минимальным уровнем с 2010 года. Это значит, что участники рынка стали более оптимистично смотреть в будущее и ждут восстановления рынка авиаперевозок. Особенно активными покупателями в Ле Бурже стали азиатские компании, которые реагируют на бум в области путешествий из-за выгодности курсов валют.  Россия вклинится в борьбу позже Российская гражданская техника на французском авиасалоне не может пока похвастаться такими же успехами, как крупнейшие мировые авиаконструкторы. Однако в перспективе Россия намерена разрушить многолетнюю дуополию Boeing и Airbus. Это призван сделать полностью новейший лайнер с огромным количеством ноу-хау МС-21, совершивший свой первый испытательный полет в конце мая 2017 года. И, в отличие от популярных узкофюзеляжных лайнеров Boeing и Airbus, Россия выйдет на мировой рынок в сегменте широкофюзеляжных, где, впрочем, конкуренция не менее жесткая. Новых подписанных контрактов из Ле Бурже МС-21 не привезет. «МС-21 пока не успел проявить себя как следует. Несколько испытательных полетов, и все. Малоизвестная российская разработка рядом с акулами рынка просто теряется. Кроме того, в Ле Бурже была представлена только модель самолета. Это, конечно, не самое главное, но все равно влияет на общее восприятие», – говорит Иван Андриевский. Впрочем, в конце июля в подмосковном Жуковском состоится авиасалон МАКС, где МС-21 будет чувствовать себя увереннее. На МАКС контракты должны быть подписаны, уверен Андриевский. При этом портфель заказов на самолеты семейства МС-21 уже составляет 285 машин. Из них на 175 самолетов заключены твердые заказы, то есть покупатели внесли авансовые платежи. «Этого достаточно для разворачивания серийного производства», – уверил президент Объединенной авиастроительной корпорации (ОАК) Юрий Слюсарь в Ле Бурже, передает RNS. В основном заказчики российские. Крупнейшим покупателем является «Аэрофлот», который заказал 50 МС-21. Однако, по словам Слюсаря, есть также твердые контракты с авиакомпаниями из Юго-Восточной Азии, Северной Африки и стран СНГ. «Когда самолет начнет летать, безусловно, интерес к нему вырастет, и появятся новые заказчики. Мы считаем, что, помимо новых клиентов, для тех стран и компаний, в парке которых уже активно эксплуатируется SSJ100, будет интересно развить линейку и дополнить парк самолетом МС-21», – считает Слюсарь. Первые три самолета МС-21 «Аэрофлот» должен получить уже в 2019-м. К 2018 году корпорация «Иркут» соберет четыре таких самолета, а к 2020 году, по плану, выйдет на выпуск 20 МС-21 в год, к 2023 году – на 70 лайнеров. Выйти на производство 60–70 машин в год вполне возможно, потому что параллельно созданию МС-21 происходила и модернизация завода для его производства, считает директор «Авиа.ру» Роман Гусаров. И продать, по его мнению, такой объем не составит большого труда. Главное, чтобы производитель предоставил весь комплекс услуг, так как продается не просто машина, а жизненный цикл самолета – от его поставки до утилизации. По словам Слюсаря, с помощью государства будет создана система поддержки продаж и эксплуатации самолетов в России и за рубежом. «Сегодня Boeing и Airbus производят более 600 самолетов на пару. Мы с нашими 60–70 самолетами легко вклинимся, они даже особо эту конкуренцию с нашей стороны и не заметят», – говорит Гусаров. А вот чтобы разогнаться до таких же объемов выпуска, как Boeing и Airbus, потребуется куда больше времени. Сами западные авиастроители доходили до таких объемов десятилетиями. «Российским авиаконструкторам, конечно, хотелось бы получить подобную популярность для своей модели, какую имеют сегодня новейшие Boeing и Airbus, но, учитывая, как долго российская гражданская авиация была в загоне, этого придется ждать много лет. МС-21 имеет свои преимущества и сильные стороны, но необходимо время, чтобы покупатели, привыкшие к дуополии Boeing и Airbus, по-настоящему открыли для себя российскую модель», – согласен первый вице-президент Российского союза инженеров. Но в перспективе МС-21 имеет все шансы откусить часть мирового пирога. «Доверие и уважение к российской авиационной промышленности имеется во всем мире, в частности благодаря «Су» и «МиГ», так что MC-21 вполне может занять свою долю мирового рынка гражданской авиации. Можно, конечно, поставить амбициозную цель выбиться в топ и потеснить двух лидеров, но лучше сосредоточиться пока на другом – поиске первых лояльных клиентов в развитых странах. Большая дорога начинается с первого шага», – заключает Андриевский. Теги:  авиакомпании, Airbus, Boeing, авиасалон

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20 июня, 05:03

South Korea military to conduct joint drill with U.S. B-1B bombers on Tuesday

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea's military plans to conduct a joint drill with two U.S. supersonic B-1B Lancer bombers on Tuesday as part of a scheduled exercise, a South Korean air force official said.

19 июня, 13:00

How to Deal With North Korea

There are no good options. But some are worse than others.

11 июня, 17:08

In 1983, A NATO Military Exercise Almost Started a Nuclear World War III

Warfare History Network History, On the night of November 20, 1983, Armageddon went prime time. Over 100 million Americans tuned in to the ABC television network to watch the two-hour drama The Day After. This depiction of a hypothetical nuclear attack on the United States attracted a great deal of publicity and controversy. Schools made watching the film a homework assignment, discussion groups were organized in communities across the country, and even the secretary of state at the time, George Schulz, took part in a question-and-answer session hosted by ABC after the film’s broadcast. That a mere made-for-TV movie could garner such attention from a leading figure in the Reagan administration indicates how real the fear of a nuclear apocalypse was at the time. But almost no one watching that Sunday night realized just how close fiction came to reality in the fall of 1983. The possibility of the world’s two greatest military powers destroying each other and the earth in a full-scale thermonuclear war was a fear shared by many throughout the world. At the time, both the United States and the USSR maintained huge nuclear arsenals of over 20,000 nuclear warheads each. In North America and Western Europe, nuclear freeze movements were gaining new members daily, with mass demonstrations that routinely numbered in the tens of thousands. World events seemed to only reaffirm people’s fears. It was the third year of the presidency of Ronald Reagan, a man who had built his political career on a virulent hatred for all things communist. His 1980 victory over incumbent President Jimmy Carter had largely been the result of his hard-line stance against the Russians. A former film actor with a natural flair for the dramatic, Reagan both inspired and shocked people with his hardcore rhetoric, such as his statement before the British House of Commons in 1982 that the Marxist ideology would be relegated to the “ash heap of history.” Perhaps his most memorable and antagonistic remarks came on March 8, 1983, when Reagan referred to the Soviet Union as the “focus of evil in the modern world” and an “evil empire.” The actions of the Reagan administration in its first three years backed up his uncompromising rhetoric. To match the USSR’s huge expenditures on its armed forces, Reagan and Secretary of Defense Casper Weinberger initiated one of the largest peacetime military buildups in American history. Weapons programs such as the M1 Abrams tank, Trident nuclear submarine, and Stealth bomber were accelerated, while previously cancelled programs such as the B1 Lancer strategic bomber and the MX Missile were resurrected. To achieve the goal of creating a 600-ship navy, the Defense Department brought all four of its mammoth World War II-era Iowa-class battleships out of mothballs and returned them to active duty. “Star Wars” and Fleetex 83: On the Brink of Nuclear War On March 23, 1983, Reagan took the superpower rivalry to a new level when he unveiled the Strategic Defense Initiative Program during a live television address. The SDI program, more popularly referred to as “Star Wars,” was to provide an orbital shield that would protect the United States—at least partly—from a nuclear strike. Reagan and supporters of the project argued that such a defense network, while not being able to completely block a full-scale strike from Russia, would at least cut down its effectiveness considerably and would be able to destroy smaller scale strikes, accidental nuclear launches, or missile attacks from rogue states. Reagan proposed to share the technology with the Soviets in a bid to eliminate the threat of nuclear war altogether. To Yuri Andropov, then general secretary of the USSR, Reagan’s intentions spelled trouble. Andropov had dedicated his entire life to defending the Soviet Union, whether as a member of the partisans fighting behind German lines during World War II or as head of the Soviet secret police, the KGB. His supreme ambition to lead the nation had been realized with the death of Leonid Brezhnev in November 1982. Andropov was scared to death of Ronald Reagan. He sincerely believed that Reagan meant what he said about the Soviet Union being an evil empire and seeing himself as a crusader who would not have any qualms in ordering the USSR’s destruction. During the summer and fall of 1983, events only served to add fuel to Andropov’s burning fears. In Western Europe, the United States prepared to deploy the latest generation of Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM), the Pershing II. The Pershing missiles were a countermove to the Soviet deployment of the larger SS-20 IRBMs. But while the SS-20s could only reach targets in Western Europe, the Pershing IIs had the range to hit targets inside the USSR itself. It represented a new threat that the Soviets found intolerable. In April and May of that year, as the rhetoric between Washington and Moscow escalated, the United States Navy conducted a series of fleet exercises in the Northwest Pacific known as FLEETEX 83. With more than 40 warships massed into three carrier battle groups, it was the largest concentration of American naval might in the Western Pacific since World War II. The massive exercise involved the counterclockwise sweep of these waters with the extreme right flank of the formation coming close to Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula. Round-the-clock air operations from the carriers Enterprise, Coral Sea, and Midway were meant to make the Soviets respond by putting their eastern air bases on constant alert. During the course of the maneuvers, a combined flight of six F-14 Tomcat fighters from Midway and Enterprise flew over Zelyony Island in the Kuril Archipelago, a violation of Soviet airspace that the U.S. Navy later insisted was an accident, an explanation that the Soviets obviously did not accept. FLEETEX 83 was only the largest effort to taunt and tease the Russian bear. Throughout the summer, Navy and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft repeatedly violated Soviet airspace, forcing the Soviet Air Force to constantly scramble its fighter planes to intercept violators. By the time the Soviet planes were in the air, the American planes would already have left the USSR and been on their way back to base. Furious leaders in Moscow put increasing pressure on their pilots to be more aggressive with the American intruders. This increasingly tense game of cat-and-mouse laid the groundwork for one of the most tragic episodes of the Cold War. “The Target is Destroyed” On the night of September 1, Soviet fighters scrambled yet again, this time because an American RC-135 reconnaissance plane had flown into Soviet airspace in the area of the Sakhalin Islands. The RC-135 was a modified Boeing 707, an aircraft regularly used as a commercial air liner but also used by the Air Force for communications, refueling, and intelligence gathering. The planes were based in the Aleutian Islands, and their principal mission was to monitor Soviet missile tests on the Kamchatka Peninsula. On this particular night, not all of the radar installations on Sakhalin were functioning properly, and they would repeatedly break down during the night. Nevertheless, Soviet radar operators detected what they thought was the RC-135 before a pair of Sukhoi Su-15 fighters made visual contact with the plane. The lead pilot, Lt. Col. Gennady Osipovich got close enough to see that the plane was a large, four-engine configuration. After trying to signal the aircraft, Osipovich received instructions from the air defense command to shoot down the plane. After firing warning tracers at the aircraft to try and get its attention, Osipovich followed his orders and launched two R98 air-to-air missiles at the huge plane. Upon seeing the missiles connect with the target and explode, Osipovich radioed back in his trained, professional tone, “The target is destroyed.” However, the plane that Osipovich brought down was not an RC-135. The reconnaissance plane had already completed its mission and left Soviet airspace on its way back to the Aleutians. The malfunctioning radar installations had instead picked up another flight, a commercial airliner that was off course from its scheduled flight to Seoul. It was Korean Air Lines Flight 007, a 747 jumbo jet with a four-engine configuration similar to that of the RC-135. Two missiles hit the rear fuselage of the plane and sent it spiraling into the Sea of Japan, taking all 269 passengers and crew to a watery grave. Ironically, one of those passengers was a fiercely anticommunist conservative congressman from Georgia, Lawrence McDonald. As news broke of the catastrophe, the world reacted with shock and outrage. Reagan, a man usually known for his gentle manner and good humor, was enraged. In a nationally televised address that same night, he condemned the shootdown as an “act of barbarism, born of a society which wantonly disregards individual rights and the value of human life and seeks constantly to expand and dominate other nations.” Radio exchanges between the Russian pilots and their base had been monitored and recorded by the Japanese Ministry of Defense, which in turn passed the recordings on to Washington. That evening Reagan played a portion of the recordings, and Osipovich’s infamous four words, “The target is destroyed,” would be played and replayed on news programs throughout the world. Moscow’s reaction to the outrage further hurt Soviet credibility. At first, Moscow refused even to admit that a shootdown had taken place. Then they conceded only that an “incident” had occurred. When the Kremlin finally admitted that one of its planes had shot down an aircraft, it was insisted that the plane was on a reconnaissance mission and that blowing it out of the sky was completely justified. Osipovich himself was never reprimanded for shooting down the civilian airliner; in fact, he was awarded a salary bonus of 200 rubles. Able Archer and Grenada On September 29, nearly a month after the KAL 007 tragedy, Andropov issued an official declaration to the Soviet people, stating that as long as Ronald Reagan occupied the Oval Office there could be no chance of negotiating with the United States. According to the general secretary, the United States was embarking on “a militarist course that represents a serious threat to peace.” Angry rhetoric between the United States and the USSR was nothing new, but never before had the leader of either superpower declared that he would not negotiate with the other. On October 25, international tensions were ratcheted up further when the United States launched an invasion of the small Caribbean island of Grenada. The official purpose was to rescue 250 American students at St. George’s School of Medicine who were caught in the middle of a power struggle between two communist factions. It took little more than 48 hours for the American invasion force to overwhelm the 1,200-man Peoples’ Revolutionary Army and a 780-man Cuban contingent. The fighting, while brief, was fierce, with the Americans suffering 134 casualties to 500 Grenadan and Cuban losses. The invasion was the largest American military operation since Vietnam and the first time that a communist nation had been invaded since North Korea. The invasion seemed to confirm in Andropov’s mind what he had most feared. He saw in Grenada an example of the American president’s willingness to use force. A week after the landings in Grenada, NATO commenced a 10-day exercise codenamed Able Archer 83. It involved most of Western Europe and was directed from Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) at Casteau, Belgium. Able Archer was a complex simulation of a hypothetical war with the Warsaw Pact that included a series of fictional military exercises escalating to the launch of nuclear weapons. As Able Archer commenced, NATO vehicles rumbled throughout the West German countryside sending simulated radio reports about Soviet and East German forces crossing the border and invading the Federal Republic. SHAPE received these reports and relayed them to the various situation rooms, where NATO leaders analyzed and considered their reactions. While Able Archer went through imaginary alert stages for the next several days, the center issued to its agents a checklist of specific events that would indicate that a nuclear attack was imminent. NATO leaders surmised that it would take 7 to 10 days for the United States to fully prepare for a nuclear war from the time such a decision was made. Five days into the Able Archer exercise, Moscow appeared to believe that actual preparations were being made for such a war. The Soviets Prepare to Strike On November 9, the seventh day of Able Archer, Western intelligence reported that pilots of the Soviet 4th Air Army had been placed on alert at their air bases in East Germany and Poland. The warplanes included Sukhoi Su-24 “Fencer” precision-strike bombers capable of delivering tactical nuclear weapons. Their two-man crews sat ready in their cockpits, waiting for the order to stand down or the order to take off and proceed to their designated targets in Western Europe. NATO intelligence also reported the movement of the Soviet Red Banner Fleet from its bases in the Baltic and the North Sea. Information was coming in that the Soviets were preparing their most powerful weapons, their 300 ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) for immediate launch on Andropov’s order. The general secretary sent messages to his counterparts in the Warsaw Pact warning them of the high probability of war breaking out and ordered Soviet ballistic submarines at sea to go into firing positions off the coast of the United States. As these reports filtered in to Western intelligence agencies, there initially was little alarm. Analysts and experts who examined the information simply could not believe that the Soviets seriously thought that NATO was preparing a nuclear first strike. At this point, the West did not have any real clue just how dangerous the situation had become. It would take the warnings of a double agent to finally get the West suitably alarmed. Oleg Gordievsky came from a family of spies. His brother had joined the KGB in 1957, and his father had served in the KGB’s Stalinist predecessor, the NKVD. Gordievsky himself had joined in 1962. By 1983, he was a KGB colonel, serving in London as the resident delegate to the KGB mission, the highest ranking KGB officer in the United Kingdom. His decision to work for the other side came from his thorough disillusionment with Soviet communism. In 1974, while serving in the KGB mission in Copenhagen, Denmark, he started to actively cooperate with Great Britain’s MI6. Gordievsky understood the depth of suspicion, paranoia, and downright panic that was seizing the Kremlin. As he received directives from Moscow about the imminence of a nuclear attack, he did not hesitate to inform his British handlers. “When I told the British,” he later recalled, “they simply could not believe that the Soviet leadership was so stupid and narrow-minded as to believe in something so impossible.” It was not until Gordievsky passed along the directives he had received that the British really started to pay attention. Copies of these directives made it into the hands of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who forwarded the documents to the Central Intelligence Agency. At CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia, the documents landed on the desk of the agency’s mercurial director, William Casey, who personally delivered the documents to the White House, where they were first glimpsed by Reagan’s National Security Adviser Robert McFarlane. At first, McFarlane was skeptical, but the urgent reports by Gordievsky, Britain’s highest-placed spy in the KGB, were enough to finally convince him. McFarlane took the problem to the president. Defusing the Crisis A flurry of diplomatic cables flashed from Washington to Moscow, giving repeated and wholehearted assurances that Able Archer was simply an exercise. Reagan sent presidential adviser Brent Scowcroft to the Soviet capital to give further assurances, face to face, on behalf of the president that the United States would never launch a surprise attack on the USSR. The effort was not enough to convince Andropov of Reagan’s good intentions, but it was enough for him to watch and wait. Throughout the rest of the Able Archer exercise, Soviet forces stayed on alert, braced and ready to move at a moment’s notice. Only when the exercise finally concluded on November 11 did the Soviet Union give the order for its strategic forces to stand down. In the end, simple human reasoning overcame the ideology and overheated rhetoric of the age. The deep mistrust and animosity between the two sides were not enough to trump the staggering price that would have been paid for acting upon them. Nuclear winter was averted—for the time being at least—but the chill had come uncomfortably close. This piece was written by Todd Avery Raffensperger for the Warfare History Network, where this first appeared.

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09 июня, 08:12

Самолет Korean Air экстренно приземлился в Японии

В тот момент на борту воздушного судна находились около 160 пассажиров и членов экипажа

09 июня, 08:10

Аварийная посадка: у южнокорейского Boeing задымилась кабина

Дым в кабине при подлете к японскому Фукуоку обнаружили пилоты южнокорейской авиакомпании Korean Air Lines. Boeing737 летел из Пусана. Посадку в японском аэропорту пилоты выполняли с задымленной кабиной.

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09 июня, 07:25

Smoke detected in cockpit of Korean Air jet approaching Fukuoka

Smoke was detected in the cockpit of a Korean Air Lines flight on Friday as it approached Fukuoka airport, but there was no fire reported and no injuries…

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09 июня, 06:38

Самолет Korean Air экстренно приземлился в Японии

Самолет Korean Air экстренно приземлился в Японии

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09 июня, 06:30

Самолет Korean Air экстренно сел в японской Фукуоке

Экстренную посадку в японском аэропорту Фукуока вынужден был совершить самолет южнокорейской авиакомпании Korean Air. Об этом заявило японское ведомство, ответственное за транспорт. Лайнер выполнял рейс Пусан – Фукуока, но перед заходом на посадку экипаж сигнализировал о задымлении в кабине, сообщает ТАСС. На взлетно-посадочной полосе самолет встретили пожарные расчеты. К счастью, никто из 160 пассажиров и членов экипажа не пострадал. Причины задымления выясняются.

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09 июня, 06:22

Smoke detected in cockpit of Korean Air jet as it approached Japan; no fire or injuries reported

TOKYO (Reuters) - Smoke was detected in the cockpit of a Korean Air Lines flight on Friday as it approached Fukuoka airport in southern Japan, but there was no fire reported and no injuries among the passengers, civil aviation and transport officials said.

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09 июня, 05:58

Самолёт Korean Air совершил экстренную посадку в Японии

Самолёт южнокорейской авиакомпании Korean Air экстренно сел в аэропорту прибытия японского города Фукуока. Согласно данным, причиной произошедшего стало задымление в кабине пилота. Как сообщает NHK, на борту судна находилось около 160 человек, никто не пострадал.

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09 июня, 05:50

Самолет Korean Air совершил экстренную посадку в Японии

Самолет южнокорейской Korean Air был вынужден совершить аварийную посадку в аэропорту японской Фукуоки.

09 июня, 05:48

Самолет Korean Air экстренно сел в Японии из-за задымления в кабине

Лайнер южнокорейской авиакомпании, летевший из Пусана в Фукуоку, совершил экстренную посадку в пункте назначения из-за задымления в кабине пилота, сообщает ТАСС со ссылкой на Министерство государственных земель, инфраструктуры, транспорта и туризма Японии.

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09 июня, 05:38

Самолет Korean Air экстренно сел в японской Фукуоке

В кабине пилота произошло задымление