America continues to increase sanctions against Russia, specifically trying to limit foreign investment into its energy sector.
Мы продолжаем весеннюю серию рейтингов акций, которые сильнее всего подорожали за год. Наш сегодняшний обзор посвящен акциям из Евросоюза. Мы включили в него только компании с капитализацией от €4B и коэффициентом оцененности P/E (отношение капитализации к годовой прибыли) не выше 61. Таким образом, все эти акции довольно известны на фондовом рынке и при этом не являются откровенными пузырями.Первое место. WirecardБанковская карта WirecardТикер: WDIБиржа: XETRAСтрана: ГерманияВалюта торгов: евроКапитализация: €12BГодовой оборот: €1,0BP/E: 56Дивиденды за год: 0,2%Изменение котировок за год: +115%О компании. Изготовитель приложений для электронных платежей и управления финансовыми рисками. Имеет собственный банк Wirecard Bank, выпускающий кредитные карты, оптимизированные под работу с программными продуктами компании. На графике. Котировки компании доступны с 2011 года, и почти все это время наблюдается явный положительный тренд. Общий рост за это время — примерно в 10 раз. В 2018 году котировки установили новый исторический рекорд. Дивиденды компания выплачивает раз в год, но размер их крайне мал.Плюсы для инвестора. Рекордный годовой рост котировок, отличный многолетний тренд котировок.Минусы для инвестора. Относительно высокий P/E (дальнейший рост котировок под сомнением), крайне низкие дивиденды, невысокий оборот в сравнении с капитализацией.Второе место. Deutsche LufthansaСамолет LufthansaТикер: LHAБиржа: XETRAСтрана: ГерманияВалюта торгов: евроКапитализация: €13BГодовой оборот: €32BP/E: 7,3Дивиденды за год: 1,8%Изменение котировок за год: +105%О компании. Знаменитая немецкая авиакомпания, крупнейший авиаперевозчик в Европе. Была основана в 1926 году, быстро собрала парк из 162 самолетов и прославилась первым трансконтинентальным перелётом в Китай. В 1940-х годах большинство самолетов Lufthansa были задействованы на военные нужды, а после войны деятельность компании была вовсе приостановлена. Работа Lufthansa была возобновлена в 1950-х годах. В 1960-х годах она почти целиком перешла на реактивную тягу. До 1994 года Lufthansa была полностью государственным предприятием, но к 1997 приватизирована. Сегодня она выполняет рейсы в 78 стран, владеет парком из 620 самолетов, а годовой пассажиропоток превышает 100 миллионов.На графике. Deutsche Lufthansa торгуется на бирже давно. В течение многих лет котировки компании были довольно стабильны и почти не выходили за рамки коридора 10-20 евро. Но в 2017 году они далеко пробили верхнюю планку, установив рекорд в 31 евро. Дивиденды компания платит раз в год, но делает это нерегулярно.Плюсы для инвестора. Отличный годовой рост котировок, невысокий P/E (что делает весьма вероятным продолжение роста).Минусы для инвестора. Существенных минусов выделить не удалось.Третье место. Ubisoft EntertainmentИгра Rayman OriginsТикер: UBIБиржа: Euronext ParisСтрана: ФранцияВалюта торгов: евроКапитализация: €7,5BГодовой оборот: €1,5BP/E: 57Дивиденды за год: —Изменение котировок за год: +95%О компании. Разработчик и издатель компьютерных игр, один из крупнейших в Европе. Был основан в 1986 году преимущественно как издатель. С 1994 года стал разрабатывать собственные игры. Первой и одной из самых известных стала серия Rayman. Широкую известность также получили серии Assassin’s Creed, Prince of Persia, Tom Clancy’s и др. У Ubisoft офисы в 20 странах, включая США, Канаду, Испанию, Китай, Германию, Россию.На графике. Ubisoft торгуется на бирже с 1999 года, и ее котировки в основном следовали мировым экономическим трендам: пузырь в 2000 году, глубокое снижение к 2003, новый пузырь в 2008, новое снижение до 2011. С 2012 года котировки компании стабильно растут. В 2016 году они побили рекорд 2008 года, а в 2017 — превысили его вдвое.Плюсы для инвестора. Многолетний положительный тренд котировок.Минусы для инвестора. Относительно высокий P/E (вероятна глубокая коррекция после недавнего рекорда), отсутствие дивидендов.Четвёртое место. UniperСотрудники UniperТикер: UN01Биржа: XETRAСтрана: ГерманияВалюта торгов: евроКапитализация: €8,8BГодовой оборот: €67BP/E: 5,4Дивиденды за год: 2,3%Изменение котировок за год: +93%О компании. Энергетическая компания, работающая как в Европе, так и на внешнем рынке. Является подразделением более крупной немецкой компании E.ON. В Европе владеет электростанциями множества типов — тепловых, гидроэнергетических, атомных (Швеция), биотопливных (Франция), солнечных, ветровых. Внутри Евросоюза основные инвестиции осуществляет в Чехии, а за его пределами — в России и Бразилии.На графике. Информация о котировках компании доступна лишь с 2016 года. Все это время наблюдается положительный тренд, общий рост составил 2,5 раза. Дивиденды компания выплачивала пока лишь один раз — в 2017 году.Плюсы для инвестора. Положительный тренд котировок с 2016 года, относительно приемлемые дивиденды и низкий P/E. Огромный оборот компании в сравнении с капитализацией говорит о том, что этим акциям явно есть куда дорожать.Минусы для инвестора. Существенных минусов выделить не удалось.Пятое место. NMC HealthБольница NMCТикер: NMCБиржа: London Stock ExchangeСтрана: Великобритания, ОАЭ, ИспанияВалюта торгов: фунт стерлинговКапитализация: €8,3BГодовой оборот: €993MP/E: 61Дивиденды за год: 0,5%Изменение котировок за год: +92%О компании. Британская медицинская компания, предоставляющая услуги преимущественно в Объединенных Арабских Эмиратах, а также в Испании. Основные направления деятельности — диагностика, исследования в области гинекологии и репродукции, аптечная торговля, управление медучреждениями. Владеет больницами, поликлиниками, аптеками. Также осуществляет оптовую торговлю лекарствами, медицинским оборудованием, косметикой и продуктами питания.На графике. Информация о котировках компании доступна с 2011 года, и все это время наблюдается положительный тренд. Общий рост — почти в 16 раз. Каждый год происходило почти двукратное удорожание компании. Дивиденды NMC Health платит раз в год, но размер из крайне мал.Плюсы для инвестора. Отличный многолетний рост котировок.Минусы для инвестора. Крайне низкие дивиденды, высокий P/E и низкий оборот в сравнении с капитализацией. Возможно, компания переоценена.Шестое место. Banco Comercial PortuguesОтделение Banco Comercial PortuguesТикер: BCPБиржа: Euronext LisbonСтрана: ПортугалияВалюта торгов: евроКапитализация: €4,4BГодовой оборот: €1,9BP/E: 24Дивиденды за год: —Изменение котировок за год: +92%О компании. Крупнейший коммерческий банк Португалии с широким спектром финансовых услуг для частных лиц и компаний. Занимается инвестиционной деятельностью, в том числе в недвижимость. У компании филиалы в Польше, Португалии, Мозамбике, Анголе, Швейцарии.На графике. Этот банк существует давно, но информация о его котировках в начале 2017 года содержит ошибку, поэтому мы приводим лишь дальнейшие данные. Долгое время до 2017 котировки банка падали, но сейчас активно восстанавливаются.Плюсы для инвестора. Хороший годовой рост котировок при умеренном P/E.Минусы для инвестора. Отсутствие дивидендов.Седьмое место. FinecoBankЛоготип FinecoBankТикер: FBKБиржа: Borsa ItalianaСтрана: ИталияВалюта торгов: евроКапитализация: €6,0BГодовой оборот: €265MP/E: 28Дивиденды за год: 2,9%Изменение котировок за год: +83%О компании. Коммерческий банк, подразделение знаменитой банковской группы UniCredit. Фокусируется на внутреннем рынке Италии. Помимо традиционных банковских услуг, предоставляет брокерские услуги, торгует финансовыми инструментами, оказывает услуги по управлению активами.На графике. С 2014 года котировки банка выросли в 2,5 раза, хотя этот рост не был равномерным: большой подъем в 2015, спад в 2016, еще более быстрый подъем в 2017, исторический рекорд в 2018. Дивиденды банк платит раз в год, и размер их относительно велик по меркам этого обзора.Плюсы для инвестора. Хороший годовой рост котировок, рекордные в обзоре дивиденды.Минусы для инвестора. Крайне низкий оборот в сравнении с капитализацией.При составлении обзора мы использовали данные с сайта finance.google.com. Буква «M» означает миллионы, «B» — миллиарды. Котировки даны в валютах торгов, остальные данные — в пересчете на евро.
For more than two years, investment bankers in the US and London have been salivating over the prospect that Aramco, the state-owned Saudi oil company that’s believed to be one of the most valuable companies in the world, could choose to list shares representing a 5% stake in the company on the London Stock Exchange, New York Stock Exchange, or Nasdaq. But despite reports that the royal family had “shortlisted” New York, London and Hong Kong as possible venues for the offering - news that intensified an already escalating geopolitical “Game of Thrones” between bankers and politicians - the Kingdom is continuing with a Financial Times-assisted campaign of mixed messaging, suggesting that the IPO could either be delayed for another year or two, or possibly being shelved indefinitely in favor of a direct sale to a coterie of Asian sovereign wealth funds or possibly even directly to the Chinese government (much to the US's chagrin). In its latest inside-baseball report on the endlessly fraught back-and-forth, the Financial Times is saying a public offering won’t happen until 2019 at the earliest - if it happens at all. However, in an unusual twist, the paper is sourcing its story to UK officials, not the Saudis, as has often been the case in the recent past. Saudi Aramco’s listing is unlikely to go ahead this year, according to British officials who have been warned by their Saudi counterparts that the world’s biggest flotation was expected to be delayed. Several people briefed on the talks said London still had a good chance of securing the listing, which Riyadh said could value the state energy company at $2tn, but any foreign flotation was likely to happen in 2019 at the earliest. Saudi Arabia wants to sell 5 per cent of the world’s largest oil-producing company as part of an economic reform programme driven by Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, who visited the UK this week. As we’ve pointed out many times in the recent past, there is one overwhelming impediment to the deal, and that’s the price of oil. Saudi Arabia has dominated world oil supply for half a century, but in recent weeks, US crude production has overtaken The Kingdonm. With global oil prices repeatedly faltering around the $60 a barrel mark, bankers are having a hard time swallowing the $2 trillion valuation that the Saudis have ascribed to what many consider to be the Kingdom’s “crown jewel” asset. At that valuation, a 5% stake would be worth $100 billion - but bankers in all three potential venues have raised doubts about this price, with some reportedly claiming the stake would be worth half that number. Delays on IPO decision-making come as advisers have struggled to achieve the $2tn valuation that Prince Mohammed wants. Saudi Aramco’s finances and internal operations have been shrouded in secrecy for decades and its close relationship with the state has raised financial, legal and regulatory challenges. MbS visited the UK last week - a visit that undoubtedly included some discussion about the IPO - and is planning to embark on his second Trump-era White House visit later this month. But despite President Trump doing everything he can to lobby on the US’s behalf (who could ever forget that indelible shot of him touching the orb?) the chances of an offering coming to the US are looking increasingly remote...as Aramco’s leaders have expressed reservations about the possibility of a legal crackdown, as OPEC price cuts and other state-sanctioned maneuvers to bolster the price of oil could be interpreted by US regulators as blatant market manipulation. Plus, there’s also the question of that pesky lawsuit brought by the families of 9/11 survivors who are seeking to hold the Kingdom accountable amid suspicions about its role in the World Trade Center attacks. Khalid al-Falih, the energy minister, told CNN this week: “I would say litigation and liability are a big concern in the US... ...Saudi Aramco is too big and too important to be subjected to that kind of risk.” Initially, Aramco had targeted a late-2018 offering, with shares slated to list on both the Tadawal - Saudi Arabia’s domestic exchange, which was only recently opened to foreign investors - and one of the three venues mentioned above. The FT also broke the news about the possibility of a sale to the Chinese government, or possibly a group of private investors. UK officials said if Riyadh decided to list abroad they expected a domestic and foreign listing to take place around the same time. One person close to the talks said this could take place in the first or second quarter of 2019. ... London, New York and Hong Kong are among foreign bourses competing for the share sale. A private sale to strategic investors has been another option under consideration. Saudi officials have been split on where to list. Prince Mohammed, ultimate head of the kingdom’s oil affairs, has ambitions to list in New York and is hoping US officials will make regulatory concessions to pave the way for a deal there when he visits this month. But senior ministers and Saudi Aramco executives have said privately that London might be a better fit. Aside from low oil prices, a dispute between MbS and the officials in charge of Aramco has also contributed to the sale’s delay: Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive, said at a conference of British and Saudi business leaders on Thursday in London that all preparatory work required from the company would be completed in the latter half of 2018. This is a shift from previous comments from the kingdom’s officials who had said that preparations had already been completed and any final decision lay with the highest authorities in Saudi Arabia. Indecision in Riyadh about the IPO structure has caused frustration among company executives and advisers. Decision-making timelines have slipped and other options for a privatisation have emerged, as the complexities of executing the IPO have become clear — from legal risks to disclosure rules. Of course, these details are probably a distraction; the price of oil is the paramount factor. As it climbs, Saudi officials will have more leverage to demand the coveted $2 trillion valuation. Given MbS’s strongman posturing (remember his “corruption purge”) it’s likely that Saudi Arabia will resort to increasingly desperate measures to push the price of oil higher. ...And what better way to boost the oil price than an armed conflict between KSA and its regional archrival Iran. The two powers are already engaged in a proxy war in Yemen, and Saudi has reportedly been developing an unlikely partnership with Israel to counter Iran’s growing influence in the region. Indeed, the money gleaned from MbS’s shakedown of the country’s corporate elite (including dozens of his own family members) will quickly run out as the $100 billion he’s believed to have acquired is barely enough to plug this year’s budget shortfall. With MbS's US visit looming, look out for some more “developments” pertaining to this conflict in the coming weeks... As Bloomberg notes, Aramco’s IPO will put a price tag on the future of petroleum just as Saudi Arabia is fixing its sights on the end of its own oil age.
With all the money that's seemingly being minted from thin air in the initial coin offering market, enterprising financial fraudsters have found a perfect vessel for earning millions of dollars from gullible investors hoping to hit it big by investing in the next bitcoin. But in the world of penny stocks, the model for ICOs, old-fashioned pump-and-dump operations still proliferate. Indeed, US prosecutors just unveiled a string of indictments against four companies and a half dozen individuals for their involvement in a multinational operation to defraud penny-stock investors and launder the profits. The scam involved a shady stock brokerage based in the Virgin Islands which would organize penny-stock IPOs on the AIM market, a lightly-regulated junior exchange run by London Stock Exchange Group Plc, according to Bloomberg. It netted its perpetrators a cool $50 million payday (though they presumably won't be free to enjoy it). The FBI first caught wind of the scheme in October 2016 - only a few months before ICOs exploded in popularity, seemingly becoming a billion-dollar business overnight. A breakthrough arrived when one of the scheme's ringleaders suggested to an undercover FBI agent that they should launder their money with purchases of fine art - linking the operation with a London art dealer who was also charged. Eventually they decided on Picasso's "Personnage, 1965"... but the scheme was thwarted before the purchase could be made. Later they proposed buying "Personnage, 1965" - a Picasso - for $6.7 million pounds ($9.2 million). Matthew Green, the owner of Mayfair, agreed to arrange the resale of the painting, according to the U.S. The money-laundering scam was stopped before the sale was completed, prosecutors said. Contact information for Green, or Mayfair, couldn’t be immediately found. Green was charged in the case. Mayfair wasn’t. The financial backers of Beaufort Securities, the brokerage used by the schemers to manipulate the price of their penny stocks, said they were unpleasantly surprised by news that the firm had been indicted and would be forced into bankruptcy. Both Beaufort Securities and Beaufort Asset Clearing are owned by Beaufort International Associates, which is based in an iconic building in downtown London. The U.K. Financial Conduct Authority placed Beaufort Securities and Beaufort Asset Clearing Services into administration, a form of bankruptcy. Both firms are owned by Beaufort International Associates Plc, which is based near the iconic “Gherkin” building in the heart of London and where the chief executive and biggest single shareholder is Tanvier Malik, according to company filings. He wasn’t charged. The parent company isn’t in administration. “I’m just as flabbergasted as everyone else,” said Nick Piazza, chief executive of Kiev-based SP Advisors, which bought a stake in Beaufort in 2014. “We were just kind of a passive shareholder but we were hoping they’d do well and we’d get our investment back. Unfortunately, something has gone haywire.” A manager at the firm was also arrested... Arvinsingh Canaye, of Mauritius, a Beaufort manager, was arrested Thursday. He pleaded not guilty in federal court in Brooklyn. A bail hearing is scheduled for March 6. Beaufort officials didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment. The chief executive of Loyal Bank, a St. Vincent-based bank, was also indicted. Given the recent revelation that the SEC has begun subpoenaing companies involved in ICOs, we imagine a flurry of securities fraud indictments is imminent. It’s the “only market that is unregulated,” one of the alleged wrongdoers boasted in a conversation that was secretly recorded, U.S. prosecutors said as they handed down an indictment in Brooklyn, New York, against six people on Friday. But like penny stocks, evidence of pervasive fraud hasn't cooled investor interest in ICOs. And despite the popularity of "The Wolf of Wall Street", ordinary people - the postmen, construction workers and teachers of the world - are just as willing as ever to wade into the shady world of penny stock pump-and-dumps.
Exchange continues to look at large deals as it reports double-digit earnings growth
Оператор Лондонской фондовой биржи London Stock Exchange (LSE) представил финансовые результаты за минувший год, в соответствии с которыми прибыль до уплаты налогов увеличилась с 364 млн фунтов стерлингов годом ранее до 564 млн фунтов ($776,8 млн). Выручка, тем временем, возросла на 17% г/г и достигла 1,77 млрд фунтов стерлингов. Кроме того, LSE заявила, что выплатит окончательные дивиденды в размере 37,2 пенса на акцию, доведя годовой из размер до 51,6 пенса на бумагу, что на 19% выше, чем было выплачено по итогам 2016 года.
Оператор Лондонской фондовой биржи London Stock Exchange (LSE) представил финансовые результаты за минувший год, в соответствии с которыми прибыль до уплаты налогов увеличилась с 364 млн фунтов стерлингов годом ранее до 564 млн фунтов ($776,8 млн). Выручка, тем временем, возросла на 17% г/г и достигла 1,77 млрд фунтов стерлингов. Кроме того, LSE заявила, что выплатит окончательные дивиденды в размере 37,2 пенса на акцию, доведя годовой из размер до 51,6 пенса на бумагу, что на 19% выше, чем было выплачено по итогам 2016 года.
Британская биржевая группа London Stock Exchange Group plc. (LSE), являющаяся оператором Лондонской фондовой биржи, по итогам 2017 года нарастила общую прибыль от продолжающихся операций на 18% в годовом выражении - до 1,955 миллиарда британских фунтов стерлингов (около 2,691 миллиарда долларов), сообщается в отчетности группы.
After a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week, the coming five days are shaping up to be volatile and extremely busy on the political, data and speaker front, where a barrage of economic updates is set to hit in both the US and across the globe, while Fed Chair Jay Powell will dominate the highlights on Tuesday with his testimony before the House, the week will culminate on March 4 with the Italian election and the SPD "Grand Coalition" vote. On the political side, while many expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favour of a Grand Coalition in Germany, uncertainty remains high. Meanwhile, in the US, Fed chair Powell's testimony will be closely watched on Tuesday, as will Draghi's appearance in Brussels on Monday. Core inflation in the euro area should rise slightly while confidence should fall, while spending in the US could see a weak start to the year. In the US: Fed Chair Powell's first semi-annual monetary policy testimony is on Tues. The speech will likely have a similar tone as the FOMC minutes, noting that growth has picked up and the FOMC has become more convinced of continued momentum. Powell is expected to sound cautiously optimistic, reiterating the need for patience when it comes to the hiking cycle. This will not be the place for Powell to hint at 4 hikes for this year. Meanwhile, there are a number of data releases this week, with the most important being Thursday’s personal income report. Real spending may have posted a drop in January, which would get Q1 real GDP off to a weak start versus consensus expectations of a sustained 3% pace this year. Euro area: Italian and German politics to take the limelight away from muted inflation This week looks set to be a long wait for the Italian election and the German SPD vote on a new Grand Coalition on Sunday. While most analysts expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favour in Germany, uncertainty remains high. Euro area headline inflation is likely to continue to decrease for a third straight month to 1.2% yoy in February, which would be the trough this year. Otherwise, credit growth should accelerate above 3.0% yoy. United Kingdom: Finally, the Brexit plan? The long-awaited speech by the Prime Minister, finally spelling out the “Road to Brexit: A Future Partnership” will surely be delivered this week. It was originally scheduled for last week, but, like so many of the UK’s plans on Brexit, has been delayed. Time is running out. Trade talks are meant to start after the 22, 23 March EU summit. Emerging Markets: There are monetary policy meetings in Korea, Israel and Ukraine. Sovereign rating reviews in Romania and Lebanon. Real GDP releases in Brazil, India and Poland. Bloomberg highlights the key weekly events: ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels on Monday. Bank of Korea has policy decision and briefing on Tuesday. Powell testifies before a House panel on Tuesday. He’ll discuss the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and the state of the economy. Powell returns on March 1 before a Senate committee. Companies announcing earnings this week include: Vale, BASF, Standard Chartered, Bayer, Lowe’s, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Peugeot, WPP, and London Stock Exchange Group. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech on Britain’s relationship with the European Union after Brexit. A barrage of data is expected out of Japan including retail sales and industrial production Wednesday, and capital spending Thursday. In China, the official and Caixin purchasing managers’ indexes on Wednesday and Thursday respectively may show growth momentum slowed slightly in February, though the signal may be clouded by the holidays. Deutsche Bank with its usual breakdown of key daily events: Monday: We start the week with the UK’s January Finance loans for housing. Across the pond, the January Chicago Fed National activity, February Dallas Fed manufacturing index and new home sales data are also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Draghi will addresses the EU Parliament while the incoming ECB VP Mr De Guindos will also attend his confirmation hearing at the Parliament. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Coeure, BOE’s Cunliffe and the Fed’s Bullard will speak. The UK’s opposition leader Corbyn is expected to set out the Labour Party’s Brexit position today with the party set to announce that they would stay in the Customs Union. This will cause problems for Mrs May who has said the country will leave. Parliament is generally in favour of staying so this raises the possibility of a lost vote somewhere down the line. Tuesday: Germany’s flash February CPI and the Euro area’s money supply and credit aggregates are due. Then a range of February confidence indicators are due for the Euro area, France and Italy. In the US, the February Richmond Fed and CB consumer confidence index are due. Further, a range of data including: January advanced goods trade balance, wholesale and retail inventories, durable and capital goods orders along with the December FHFA and S&P corelogic house price index are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell testifies in front of the House Financial services committee. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Weidmann and Mersch as well as BOE’s Sam Woods will speak. The Brookings Institution will host a conversation with the former Fed Governor Yellen and Bernanke. Finally, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief European affairs ministers. Wednesday: Overnight, Japan’s January IP and retail sales along with China’s February composite and manufacturing PMI will be out. In early morning, the GfK consumer confidence index for the UK (Feb.) and Germany (March) are also due. Later on, the flash February CPI readings for the Euro area, France and Italy will also be out. Elsewhere, France’s January PPI and 4Q GDP along with Germany’s February unemployment rate are also due. In the US, the February Chicago PMI, second reading on the 4Q GDP and Core PCE as well the January pending home sales data will be due. Onto other events, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief permanent EU representatives on Brexit and the withdrawal text is also expected to be published. Thursday: In Asia, the February manufacturing PMI for Japan (Nikkei) and China (Caixin) along with Japan’s consumer confidence index will be due. Then the final readings on February manufacturing PMIs across Europe are also due. Elsewhere, the Euro area and Italy January unemployment rate will be out. In the UK, the January net consumer credit lending and mortgage approvals along with the February flash manufacturing PMI are all due. In the US, a range of data will be out, including: January PCE Core, February ISM manufacturing index, personal income and spending, weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell is back again in front of the US Senate while the US Transportation Secretary Ms Chao also testifies before the Senate on Trump’s infrastructure plan. The ECB’s Nouy and Lane along with the BOJ’s Kataoka will speak. Elsewhere, senior officials from Euro area finance ministries discuss the banking union and the future role of the ESM. Friday: Overnight, Japan’s January unemployment rate and February CPI will be out. Then the Euro area’s January PPI, Germany retail sales and the final reading for Italy’s 4Q GDP are due. In the US, the final reading for the February Uni. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment will also be out. Onto other events, the BOE’s Carney and the ECB’s Mersch will speak. The UK’s PM May is expected to outline her vision for a post Brexit trade deal with the EU. Then on Saturday, China’s annual national legislative meetings will start and expected to run for two more weeks. Finally, here is Goldman with a detailed look at the key US events together with consensus estimates: The key economic releases this week are the second vintage of Q4 GDP on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing on Thursday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Thursday. Monday, February 26 08:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 34th annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, January (GS +4.0%, consensus +3.6%, last -9.3%): We expect new home sales to rebound 4.0% in January, following a 9.3% drop last month that we believe was partially weather-related. We expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the solid trend in single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, February (consensus +30.0, last +33.4) 03:15 PM Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will give a speech titled “An Assessment of the U.S. Economy” at the 34th annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Q&A is expected. Tuesday, February 27 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, January preliminary (GS -1.3%, consensus -2.5%, last +2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, January preliminary (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, January preliminary (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, January preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus flat, last +0.4%): We estimate durable goods orders fell 1.3% in January, reflecting a sharp pullback in commercial aircraft orders. However, we expect the core measures to firm, reflecting the timing of the Chinese New Year and the scope for core orders to rebound. Industrial production of the capex-sensitive business equipment was also quite strong in January. 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advanced goods trade balance, January (GS -$71.0bn, consensus -$72.0bn, last -$72.3bn); Wholesale inventories, January preliminary (last +0.4%): We expect the goods trade deficit to narrow $1.3bn to $71.0bn in January, reflecting a pullback in imports related to the relatively late Chinese New Year, which is likely shifting the timing of imports from January to February/March and could also pull forward some capital goods exports. 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, December (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.7%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 1.0% in the December report following a 0.7% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which climbed to 6.4% in November. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, December (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% month-over-month, in line with the December pace. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose at a 6.5% pace in November. 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee in the first of two days of testimony to deliver the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and answer questions from lawmakers. The text of his prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 AM ahead of his testimony. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, February (GS 127.0, consensus 126.0, last 125.4); We expect consumer confidence to move up 1.6pt to 127.0 in February. Our forecast reflects encouraging consumer sentiment measures in February as well as a rebound in the stock market. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, February (consensus +15, last +14) Wednesday, February 28 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q4 (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.6%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +3.7%, consensus +3.6%, last 3.8%): We expect a two-tenths downward revision in the second estimate of Q4 GDP to +2.4%, featuring a one tenth downward revision to personal consumption (to +3.7%) and additional downward revisions to government spending and exports. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, February (GS 65.5, consensus 65.0, last 65.7); We expect the Chicago PMI to decline 0.2pt to 65.5 after moving down 2.1pt in the January report. Our above-consensus forecast reflects the mixed performance of manufacturing surveys balanced against firmer business confidence reports and encouraging commentary from industrial firms. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, January (GS flat, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%): Regional housing data released so far were mixed in January. We estimate pending home sales were flat in January, and we note the current level looks elevated relative to other home sales measures. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. Thursday, March 1 8:30 AM Personal income, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, January (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PCE price index, January (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, January (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3, last +0.2%); PCE price index (yoy), January (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%); Core PCE price index (yoy), January (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.5%): Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose +0.30% month-over-month in January, which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.5%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.39% in January, or 1.7% from a year earlier. We forecast a 0.3% increase in January personal income and a 0.2% gain in personal spending. 09:45 AM Markit US Manufacturing PMI, February (last 55.9) 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 24 (GS 225k, consensus 226k, last 222k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 17 (consensus 1,915k, last 1,875k); We estimate initial jobless claims moved back up 3k to 225k in the week ended February 24, after a sizeable decline in the prior week. The trend in initial claims appears to be falling, and we look for another low reading. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined sharply by 73k in the prior week. 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, February (GS 59.2, consensus 59.0, last 59.1): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in February, and we expect ISM manufacturing to tick up to 59.2 in the February report. The Philly Fed (+3.6pt to 25.8) and Kansas City Fed (+1pt to 17) manufacturing sector surveys both strengthened while the Empire State manufacturing survey pulled back (-4.6pt to 13.1). On net, our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—edged down 0.3pt to 58.7. 10:00 AM Construction spending, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%): We expect construction spending to increase 0.6% in February, following a 0.7% increase in December that reflected stronger total private construction and public nonresidential construction activity. 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee in the second day of testimony to deliver the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and answer questions from lawmakers. 11:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech on trade and globalization at an event hosted by the Central Bank of Brazil. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:00 PM Total vehicle sales, February (GS 17.3mn, consensus 17.2mn, last 17.1mn): Domestic vehicle sales, February (consensus 13.2mn, last 13.1mn) Friday, March 2 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, February final (GS 100.0, consensus 99.0, last 99.9): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up 0.1pt to 100 in the February final estimate, reflecting continued improvement among more timely measures of consumer confidence as well as the favorable stock market performance over the last two weeks. The University of Michigan’s survey of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations was stable at 2.5% in the preliminary February report. Source: SocGen, Deutsche bank, BofA, Goldman
Any hopes that the dollar may have halted its recent tumble have been, for now, dashed, when the greenback resumed its slide overnight, the DXY falling below 90 again and down for a third day against all G-10 peers ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s first Congressional testimony in which investors bet the new head of the Federal Reserve will steer a steady course on policy. “Given he’s speaking on behalf of the committee it would be a big surprise to see much deviation from recent Fed commentary, but much will probably be made of how he handles the scrutiny,” said Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid in preview of Powell's comments. “Powell’s testimony on Tuesday could be key in determining whether the recent market reluctance to price Fed much more aggressively despite inflationary impulses is warranted or not,” said Christin Tuxen, chief currency analyst at Danske Bank. “If Powell comes out hawkish, the potential for EUR/USD downside would be non-negligible. Possible downside EUR risks loom this weekend with the general election in Italy and the SPD vote.” Dollar weakness has pushed the euro higher and the yen strengthens after Governor Kuroda said "prices are gradually rising more and more" even as the BOJ has no plans to overhaul its current form of easing. U.S. 10-yr yields are little changed after falling 5bps Friday, while global stocks have all sprinted out of the gate in what right now is a sea of green... ... and S&P futures are currently at session highs, up 12 points or 0.4%. With the dollar slumping, and 10Y TSY yields failing to rise above 2.90%, European shares followed their Asian counterparts higher amid some modest concerns what Jay Powell may say tomorrow. In other macro news, the pound advanced, finding some support after the BOE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said in an interview that rates may need to be raised sooner than previously thought due to signs of accelerating pay growth. The euro rose ahead of ECB President Draghi’s statement before European lawmakers. Russia’s ruble appreciated the most in emerging markets after S&P Global Ratings boosted its credit score to investment grade. The yen firmed to a one-week high, gold climbed and European sovereign bonds were mixed. Asia’s emerging-market currencies rose as regional stocks tracked U.S. equities higher and lower Treasury yields supported demand for developing-nation assets. Most sovereign bonds also climbed. FX recap from BBG: The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls for a third day as the euro grinds higher from a session low of 1.2280 to touch 1.2355. Treasuries pushed higher in Asian hours as Yen rallied, before sticking in tight range. Yield are lower by 1-1.5bps across the curve, with 7-year sector outperforming as futures lead gains The cable rose to a 10-day high ahead of a speech by opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn that is expected to see him back a softer Brexit The yen reversed earlier declines after BOJ Governor Kuroda said Japanese prices are rising; he also reaffirmed his view that the BOJ needs to continue with the current powerful monetary easing program to achieve its 2% inflation target New Zealand dollar reverses losses after fund-related sales against Aussie have filtered through the market Looking at global equities, the Europe Stoxx 600 Index jumped to its highest level in more than three weeks, with nearly all major industry groups rallying. The gains this morning have been largely broad-based across all major sectors, while material names outperform with miners tracking the moves higher in commodity prices which have been buoyed by the softer USD. Moves higher in the FTSE 100 have been capped by the GBP strength which had been given a boost by surprisingly hawkish comments from BoE’s Ramsden, while election risks have contained the upside in the FTSE MIB. All of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; financial services sector has the biggest volume at 128% of its 30-day average; 529 Stoxx 600 members gain, 60 decline. Top Stoxx 600 outperformers include: Steinhoff International Holdings +6.5%, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson +3.8%, Nokia +3.8%, Swedish Orphan Biovitrum +3.5%, Suez +2.4%. "This week looks set to be a long wait for the Italian election and the German SPD vote on a new Grand Coalition on Sunday," Societe Generale strategists write in note. "While we expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favor in Germany, uncertainty remains high." Asia was also green across the board, with Australia's ASX 200 (+0.7%) and the Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) both higher as earnings fuelled the biggest gainers in Australia, while Japanese exporters weathered a firmer JPY and led the region’s advances. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were in the green with Geely Auto the outperformer after reports its parent amassed a near 10% stake in Daimler, although Chinese property names were less fortunate with the Shanghai Comp. Property Index slumping 3% in early trade after the latest House data showed efforts to curb the sector were gaining fruition. Elsewhere, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the central bank has no plan to overhaul its current form of easing, adding that he saw no need to do another comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of the bank’s policies. Over in the US, as stocks rebound from their early February correction, the S&P P/E ratio is almost back to where it was when yields took off, which however is clearly not bothering investors for now. Much of the market’s focus during the coming week will be on monetary policy, with the heads of the European Central Bank and Bank of England set to give speeches. But they are likely to be overshadowed by Fed chair Jerome Powell. U.S. stock markets calmed on Friday after the Fed said it saw steady economic growth continuing and no serious risks on the horizon. Powell may help set a new direction for investors at a time when some of the biggest names in markets are at odds over the implications of this month’s surge in U.S. bond yields. Morgan Stanley put out a bullish call on Treasuries Monday, countering warnings on the securities from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Warren Buffett. Bond traders are still pricing less than the three quarter-point interest-rate hikes that Fed officials have signaled as likely this year. A quick look at the latest Brexit events, where the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility is set for an embarrassing U-turn as it prepares to dramatically hike forecasts for UK growth just months after they were suddenly downgraded. Also, media reports suggested that three cabinet ministers warned PM May during private talks on Brexit at her Chequers retreat last week that her government could collapse this year. According to a report in the Sunday Times, senior ministers said there are discussions about whether the prime minister should turn the vote into a confidence issue, threatening a general election if Tory MPs vote with the opposition. Finally, the FT reported that opposition leader Corbyn is set to confirm today that the Labour Party will oppose PM May’s plans to take Britain out of the customs union with the EU. Also, the EU is said to stand firm over Northern Ireland border and that the Brexit treaty text is to not include crucial compromise language secured by UK PM May. In central bank speakers, BoE's Ramsden said there seems to be more impetus on wages and that they will keep a close eye on what happens through the early part of this year to see if that forecast [in a Bank survey] of wage growth picking up to 3% is realised. Ramsden also commented that certainly relative to where he was, he now sees the case for rates rising somewhat sooner rather than somewhat later. (Sunday Times) Note: Ramsden was one of the two dissenters on the MPC when the BoE decided to hike rates in November 2017, citing concerns over wage growth prospects as a reason to refrain from lifting rates. In commodities, oil prices steadied after hitting their highest level in nearly three weeks, supported by comments from Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih who said OPEC and its allies may ease output curbs in 2019 in a way that won’t disturb the market. Bitcoin fluctuated around $9,500. Investors will watch for new home sales data, while Dean Foods, Fitbit and Tenet are among companies reporting results. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,757.50 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 383.02 MXAP up 0.8% to 179.58 MXAPJ up 0.8% to 587.87 Nikkei up 1.2% to 22,153.63 Topix up 0.8% to 1,774.81 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 31,498.60 Shanghai Composite up 1.2% to 3,329.57 Sensex up 1% to 34,465.98 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 6,042.18 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,457.65 German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.655% Euro up 0.4% to $1.2339 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $67.16/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.797% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 1.565% Brent Futures down 0.2% to $67.16/bbl Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,339.00 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 89.59 Bulletin Headline Summary from Ransquawk A positive start to the week for European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.5%), which have taken the impetus from Asian equities overnight. The DXY is back below 90.000 yet again, and on broad losses for the Greenback vs G10 peers bar the Loonie (Usd/Cad holding above 1.2600 towards the middle of a 1.2615-60 range) Looking ahead, highlights include US New Home Sales and a slew of speakers from the ECB, BoE and Fed Top Overnight News China’s Communist Party is set to repeal presidential term limits in a move that would allow Xi Jinping to rule beyond 2023, completing the country’s move away from a political system based on collective leadership. For pound traders seeking some degree of clarity on Brexit negotiations, speeches by Britain’s Prime Minister and the leader of the opposition will prove crucial in the coming week. Theresa May is scheduled to outline her plan on the future relationship in a speech on March 2, after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn sets out his party’s Brexit position on Monday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reaffirms his view that the BOJ needs to continue with the current powerful monetary easing program to achieve its 2% inflation target. The White House said “we will see” after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un indicated he may be willing to hold talks, while reaffirming the U.S. insistence on Pyongyang’s “verifiable” denuclearization Angela Merkel nominated an up-and- coming conservative to a post in Germany’s new cabinet, part of a bid to reassert control of the party by placating critics while maintaining her centrist approach to policy NEX Group’s recently designed trading platform for China’s foreign exchange market saw 307 institutions conduct deals on Feb. 5 when phase 2 of the platform went live, the firm said in a statement Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden says in an interview with The Sunday Times that interest rates might need to be raised sooner than he previously thought due to signs of accelerating wage growth Asian stock markets began the week on the front-foot as the region took impetus from last Friday’s late rally on Wall St and with energy names underpinned by recent strength in crude prices. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) were both higher in which earnings fuelled the biggest gainers in Australia, while Japanese exporters weathered a firmer JPY and led the region’s advances. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.7%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.2%) were in the green with Geely Auto the outperformer after reports its parent amassed a near 10% stake in Daimler, although Chinese property names were less fortunate with the Shanghai Comp. Property Index slumping 3% in early trade after the latest House data showed efforts to curb the sector were gaining fruition. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher amid mild gains in USTs, while the Japanese yield curve was mixed as longer-dated bonds underperforming after the BoJ kept its operations concentrated in the belly. PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day, CNY 30bln via 28-day and CNY 20bln via 63-day reverse repos. Chinese President Xi Jinping’s policy advisor Liu He is said to emerge as the front runner to head the PBoC when current Governor Zhou retires. China’s Communist Party is said to propose to drop limits on presidential terms which would allow President Xi Jinping to remain as the nation’s president indefinitely. BoJ Governor Kuroda reiterated that the BoJ will continue with powerful monetary easing to achieve the price target. Furthermore, Kuroda also commented that Japan's economy needs persistent monetary easing and that there is currently no plan for a new comprehensive assessment. Top Asian News Kuroda Vows to Keep Stimulus Unchanged, Won’t Reassess Policy China’s Xi Follows Putin in Laying Ground to Rule for Decades SoftBank Outlook Cut to Negative at S&P on Fund Investments Exxon Shuts Papua New Guinea Output to Inspect Quake Damage A positive start to the week for European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.5%), which have taken the impetus from Asian equities overnight. The gains this morning have been largely broad-based across all major sectors, while material names outperform with miners tracking the moves higher in commodity prices which have been buoyed by the softer USD. Moves higher in the FTSE 100 have been capped by the GBP strength which had been given a boost by surprisingly hawkish comments from BoE’s Ramsden, while election risks have contained the upside in the FTSE MIB. In stock specific news, the troubled lender, Profident Financial are trading with losses of over 13% ahead of their earnings tomorrow. Top European News Deutsche Bank Presses Ahead With Asset Management Stock Sale Renzi Cold Shoulder for Five Star Flirting: Italy Campaign Trail With Daimler Deal, Geely Puts China Flag in German Heartland PostNL Plunges as Profit Toll of Regulator’s Measures Increases It’s Dalio Versus Everyone Else as Money Flows to Europe Stocks In FX, the DXY is back below 90.000 yet again, and on broad losses for the Greenback vs G10 peers bar the Loonie (Usd/Cad holding above 1.2600 towards the middle of a 1.2615-60 range). Some market observers say the renewed bout of weakness reflects a pullback in yields, but that correlation remains tenuous given the fact that the Dollar did not rally in tandem with 10 year cash hitting peaks around 2.95% (circa 10 basis points above current levels) at the heights last week, or at least not to the same degree. Hence, it is concerns about the US fiscal situation and rising deficits that are still weighing on sentiment alongside some political angst as President Trump continues to push protectionist policies. Even month end demand has not given the Usd much of a boost, as yet anyway, with Eur/Usd firmly back above 1.2300 and testing 1.2346 DMA resistance despite bearish cross flow via Eur/Jpy that has tested near term chart support just ahead of 131.00. Cable has breached its 21 DMA and 1.4050 amidst ongoing Brexit uncertainty, and Usd/Jpy has retreated to 106.50 from 107.00+. The Greenback may derive some support from big option expiries, with circa 2 bn in both Cable and Usd/Jpy at 1.4000 and 107.00-05 respectively In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures pulled off best levels with WTI running into resistance around USD 64 to move back down to the mid-USD 63s. Over the weekend, Saudi Energy Miniset Al Falih stated that he expects production cuts to ease next year (Current OPEC/ Non-OPEC production cut due to expire at year-end). Elsewhere, Barclays sees a significant risk of a market correction in H2 as a result of builds in inventories. Barclays says 2018 crude forecast of USD 60bbl for Brent and USD 55bbl for WTI is unchanged -Barclays expects backwardation in WTI and Brent Futures curves to subside later this year -Barclays also sees a significant risk of market correction in H2 2018 due to builds in inventories We start the week with the January Chicago Fed National activity, February Dallas Fed manufacturing index and new home sales data are also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Draghi will addresses the EU Parliament while the incoming ECB VP Mr De Guindos will also attend his confirmation hearing at the Parliament. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Coeure, BOE’s Cunliffe and the Fed’s Bullard will speak. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.3 8am: Fed’s Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy 10am: New Home Sales, est. 647,500, prior 625,000 10am: New Home Sales MoM, est. 3.6%, prior -9.3% 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 30, prior 33.4 3:15pm: Fed’s Quarles Gives Assessment of U.S. Economy Key events on deck this week: ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels on Monday. Bank of Korea has policy decision and briefing on Tuesday. Powell testifies before a House panel on Tuesday. He’ll discuss the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and the state of the economy. Powell returns on March 1 before a Senate committee. Companies announcing earnings this week include: Vale, BASF, Standard Chartered, Bayer, Lowe’s, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Peugeot, WPP, and London Stock Exchange Group. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech on Britain’s relationship with the European Union after Brexit. A barrage of data is expected out of Japan including retail sales and industrial production Wednesday, and capital spending Thursday. In China, the official and Caixin purchasing managers’ indexes on Wednesday and Thursday respectively may show growth momentum slowed slightly in February, though the signal may be clouded by the holidays. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The highlight this week is new Fed Chair Powell’s inaugural testimony before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Given he's speaking on behalf of the committee it would be a big surprise to see much deviation from recent Fed commentary (the recent Fed minutes the best template even if before recent inflation surprises) but much will probably be made of how he handles the scrutiny and grilling. Staying with the US, Thursday also brings the core PCE deflator which is the Fed's preferred inflation series and therefore an important release given the current market focus on prices. DB expect a pick-up (+0.3% forecast vs. +0.2% previously; +0.3% expected) with medical and healthcare increases in the recent CPI and PPI reports providing some impetus. Also on inflation, Tuesday sees Germany's latest numbers with the various European country and composite readings over the following 24 hours. Thursday sees the first of the month with the usual PMIs. The rest of the week's highlights are printed at the end but remember that next Sunday sees the long awaited Italian election with no one really sure what the outcome will be but not many people being that concerned about a particularly negative scenario. Our economists have suggested that a hung parliament is slightly more likely than a centre-right coalition with the latter potentially more positive in the short-term but with risks to debt levels and the European/Brussels relationships later down the road given the likelihood of it being associated with fiscal easing. The former is likely to lead to a grand coalition (more likely) or fresh elections with both scenarios only likely to play out slowly and could therefore increase uncertainty in the short-term. See DB’s report here for more. Over the weekend in China, the Party’s Central Committee announced it is seeking to change the Constitution to allow the President and VP to serve more than ten years, potentially enabling President Xi to stay beyond 2023. Ahead of the National People’s Congress meetings from 5th March, our Chinese economists highlight ten issues for investors to watch. These include: amendments of the constitution, economic growth targets, fiscal and monetary policy and property market policy. Turning to central bankers commentaries. In the UK, the BOE’s Ramsden who was against the November rate hike, now “see(s) the case for rates rising somewhat sooner rather than later”, in part as he is “more confident than (he) was that wages are picking up”. Back on Friday, the Fed’s Williams said that “we should be moving ahead with a rate increase relatively soon, in the near future” and that “it makes sense to think about three or four rate increases in 2018”. This morning in Asia, markets are trading broadly higher, with the Nikkei (+1.2%), Hang Seng (+0.72%), China’s CSI 300 (+1.25%) and the Kospi (+0.18%) all up as we type. Elsewhere, BOJ’s Kuroda noted the Japanese economy is expanding smoothly and “its’ essential for the BOJ to continue monetary stimulus so as to hit the price target” and there is “no plan for a new comprehensive assessment (of the bank’s monetary policy) at this point”. The YEN is up c0.3% against the USD this morning. Now recapping market performance from Friday. Core government bonds were firmer with the UST 10y and Bunds both c5.4bp lower while Gilts fell 2.4bp, in part as the Fed’s semi-annual report on monetary policy didn’t seem to add to the relatively hawkish Fed Minutes earlier in the week. The weaker European PMIs last week also put a dampener on the recent rises in yields. Elsewhere US equities rebounded c1.5% (S&P +1.60%, Dow +1.39%; Nasdaq +1.77%) with all sectors within the S&P up and gains led by the utilities, tech and energy stocks. The VIX fell 11.9% to 16.49. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 and DAX edged up c0.2% while the FTSE and Spain’s IBEX fell 0.11% and 0.55% respectively. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling strengthened 0.16% and 0.11% respectively while the Euro fell 0.28%. In commodities, WTI oil was up 1.24% to $63.55/bbl. Elsewhere, precious metals weakened c0.3% (Gold -0.25%; Silver -0.46%) and other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper -0.41%; Zinc -0.30%; Aluminium +0.39%). Staying in the US, three unnamed sources noted to Bloomberg that President Trump wants the impose the harshest tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which could include a global tariff of 24% on steel imports and up to 10% duty on aluminium imports. The process is ongoing and a final decision by President Trump on the recommendations made by the US Commerce Department is due before April. Before we take a look at this week’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In Europe, the final reading for Euro area’s January core CPI was unrevised at 1% yoy (headline CPI at 1.3% yoy). In Germany, the final reading of the 4Q GDP was also unrevised at 0.6% qoq and 2.9% yoy. Elsewhere, China reported January new home prices rose in 52 of 70 cities, down from 57 cities in December. According to a Reuters, the average rise across all cities was 0.3% mom and 5% yoy after excluding data on affordable housing (vs. 5.3% yoy previous if including affordable housing). We start the week with the UK’s January Finance loans for housing. Across the pond, the January Chicago Fed National activity, February Dallas Fed manufacturing index and new home sales data are also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Draghi will addresses the EU Parliament while the incoming ECB VP Mr De Guindos will also attend his confirmation hearing at the Parliament. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Coeure, BOE’s Cunliffe and the Fed’s Bullard will speak. The UK’s opposition leader Corbyn is expected to set out the Labour Party’s Brexit position today with the party set to announce that they would stay in the Customs Union. This will cause problems for Mrs May who has said the country will leave. Parliament is generally in favour of staying so this raises the possibility of a lost vote somewhere down the line.
Only 5 percent of Fortune 500 companies are run by women. Why? Research shows that female executives are more likely to be put in charge of firms that are already in crisis. Are they being set up to fail? (Part 5 of a special series, “The Secret Life of C.E.O.’s.”) The post After the Glass Ceiling, a Glass Cliff appeared first on Freakonomics.
Volatility Inc.: Inside Wall Street’s $8 Billion Bomb (BBG) Wall Street set to fall again after Tuesday's recovery (Reuters) Congress Seeking Bigger Budget Deal While Avoiding Shutdown (BBG) Merkel's conservatives make big concessions to SPD in coalition deal (Reuters) What were the chances? U.S. stock selloff sinks Probabilities Fund among others (Reuters) An Inventor of the VIX: ‘I Don’t Know Why These Products Exist’ (BBG) Oil World Turned Upside Down as America Sells Oil in Middle East (BBG) With Yellen Out of the Picture, Get Ready for Trump vs. Powell (BBG) Democratic House Hopefuls Out-Raise Vulnerable GOP Candidates (WSJ) Get Ready for Most Cryptocurrencies to Hit Zero, Goldman Says (BBG UK crops left to rot after drop in EU farm workers in Britain after Brexit referendum (Indep)) Navy Presses Mattis to Delay ‘Shock Testing’ Costliest Carrier (BBG) Snap surges 24 percent after user growth bounce (Reuters) Kim Jong Un's Sister to Become First Dynasty Member to Enter South Korea (BBG) Musk’s Big Questions: Can Tesla Make Model 3s and Burn Less Cash? (BBG) German pay deal heralds end of wage restraint in Europe's largest economy (Reuters) Kushner, Trump Jr. May Escape Public Hearings With Help From GOP (BBG) Chinese Police Go RoboCop With Facial-Recognition Glasses (WSJ) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Steve Wynn, the billionaire casino visionary considered to be the architect of modern Las Vegas, resigned Tuesday as chairman and chief executive of Wynn Resorts Ltd in the wake of sexual-misconduct allegations detailed in a Wall Street Journal investigation last month. on.wsj.com/2BZkK1Z - Tronc Inc is in advanced talks to sell its troubled flagship newspaper, the Los Angeles Times, to billionaire biotech investor Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong for around $500 million, a person familiar with the matter said. on.wsj.com/2C0s0us - Space Exploration Technologies Corp successfully launched the Falcon Heavy rocket Tuesday on its initial test flight, marking another coup for founder Elon Musk. on.wsj.com/2C0Q5RX - The White House signaled little flexibility on immigration on Tuesday, saying lawmakers must pass a bill on President Donald Trump's terms and offering no relief on the tight timeline for Congress. on.wsj.com/2C1fevy - After years of considering the European Union's external borders set, Brussels is proposing to add some of the continent's poorest countries to check the influence of Russia, China and Turkey in the Balkans. on.wsj.com/2C28opz - Apple Inc's acquisition of the popular song-recognition app Shazam Entertainment Ltd may adversely impact competition in Europe, European Union antitrust authorities said Tuesday, announcing they would take over the merger review from national regulators in Austria. on.wsj.com/2BZmCb1 FT BP Plc’s fourth-quarter earnings more than quadrupled from the year before as the UK oil and gas group benefited from higher crude prices and a surge in production from new projects. A multimillion pound criminal trial of three former Tesco Plc executives accused of fraud and false accounting in a 250 million pound ($349.05 million) scandal at the retailer has been abandoned after one of the defendants had a heart attack. Tronc Inc is expected to sell the Los Angeles Times to Patrick Soon-Shiong, the pharmaceuticals billionaire who invested in the U.S. publisher in 2016, capping a tumultuous period for its flagship newspaper. NYT - U.S. casino mogul Steve Wynn resigned Tuesday as chairman and chief executive of his company, Wynn Resorts Ltd, in response to sexual misconduct allegations. (nyti.ms/2C06xSu) - Tronc Inc, the owner of the Los Angeles Times, is close to a deal to sell the newspaper to Patrick Soon-Shiong, a billionaire Los Angeles doctor and one of Tronc's major shareholders. (nyti.ms/2nNCzvO) - German carmaker Daimler AG publicly apologized on Tuesday after its Mercedes-Benz brand caused an outcry in China by quoting the Dalai Lama in a social media post. (nyti.ms/2nJkm39) - SpaceX's Falcon Heavy roared into space in its debut test flight on Tuesday from a Florida launch site, in another milestone for billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk's private rocket service. (nyti.ms/2BKkwQI) Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Premier Rachel Notley has instructed Alberta's alcohol regulator to block about C$70 million ($56 million) worth of wine imports from British Columbia in retaliation for proposed rules that would effectively prevent Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. (tgam.ca/2Ep67Kl) ** Barrick Gold Corp says it will incur a pretax charge of C$429 million ($343 million) in its upcoming fourth-quarter results as a result of downgrading a portion of its gold reserves at its troubled Pascua-Lama project. (tgam.ca/2Es6mok) ** WestJet Airlines Ltd plans to increase capacity in the first quarter and full year of 2018 as it expands domestically, internationally and with its ultralow-cost carrier taking flight later this year. (tgam.ca/2Es7xnK) NATIONAL POST ** Nutrien Ltd, the newly formed company from the merger of Potash Corp of Saskatchewan and Agrium Inc, is well on course to achieve savings of half a billion dollars in synergies annually, according to its CEO Chuck Magro. (bit.ly/2EnDAVz) ** Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission is once more asking America's tech giants for coveted online streaming data to help it plot the future of Canadian content consumption, a move that could test its clout with U.S. companies that previously refused to hand over their subscriber information. (bit.ly/2Epb4Tr) Britain The Times Ocado Group Plc has raised 144 million pounds ($200.94 million) to invest in its international licensing division, despite admitting that it "didn't have to". bit.ly/2BJc0RP Frustrated customers defecting from Barclays Plc boosted the number of net new clients won by Hargreaves Lansdown Plc to 61,000 in the six months to December. bit.ly/2BJXjy7 The Guardian Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc misled parliament over the extent of its mistreatment of struggling business customers, the shadow Treasury minister has claimed. bit.ly/2BIv0jf An 18-week fraud trial involving three former directors of Tesco Plc's UK business has been abandoned after one of the defendants was taken ill. bit.ly/2BIGO54 The Telegraph MI6 has raised concerns after a Russian oligarch with links to military hardware production was able to use the London Stock Exchange to raise an estimated 1 billion pounds. bit.ly/2BIeY9e European regulators will assess Apple Inc's takeover of British song-recognition app Shazam, after seven countries argued the deal could limit competition. bit.ly/2BKdH1t Sky News An American hedge fund H/2 Capital Partners will this week hand Four Seasons Healthcare Group, Britain's biggest care home operator, a 70 million pounds ($97.68 million) lifeline even as the deadline for a long-term rescue deal is pushed back by two months. bit.ly/2BIGu6j Eat, one of Britain's biggest sandwich chains, is considering a wave of shop closures as it becomes the latest retailer to be forced to react to a rising high street cost-base. bit.ly/2BKvG7V The Independent Robert Chote, the chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, has said it was a mistake for ministers to have tried to keep the Treasury forecast, which shows Brexit is likely to do long-term harm to the UK economy, secret. ind.pn/2BIzu9Q
стр.62 В конце XVII века была образована Лондонская фондовая биржа (London Stock Exchange — LSE), которая на сегодня является второй биржей в мире по величине объемов торговли фондовыми инструментами. На LSE впервые стали использовать слова "бык" ("bull") и "медведь" ("bear") применительно к торговцам ценными бумагами. Значение слова «медведь» в данном случае было таким же, как и в поговорке «делить шкуру неубитого медведя» (в английском варианте — "to sell bear's skin before one has caught the bear"). Хотя некоторые считают, что возникновение аналогии с животными было связано с их естественным поведением. Когда медведь охотится, он старается повалить добычу, наваливаясь на нее всем телом сверху вниз. Когда же атакует бык, то он подкидывает врага своими рогами снизу вверх. Поэтому быки ассоциируются с игроками на повышение. Кроме этого, на рынках распознают "свиней" (иногда говорят "кабаны") и "овец", которые «зарезаются» опытными быками и медведями. Свиньи жадные и на этой жадности ловятся. Обычно свиней сначала откармливают и дают им неплохо заработать, стимулируя увеличивать ставки. Аналогично поступают карточные шулеры, распаляющие жадность неопытных противников небольшими выигрышами и видом «живых» выигранных денег. Обычно свиней зарезают, когда они, входя в азарт, доводят ставки до неприлично больших размеров. В таких случаях достаточно небольшого движения рынка, чтобы «подать свинью на блюде». Кроме этого, свиньи часто передерживают позиции, стремясь забрать с рынка все деньги и не умея вовремя остановиться. Овцы являются типичными представителями пассивной толпы — боязливыми и безропотными. Они не могут и шага ступить без «пастуха», коих на рынке вы всегда найдете достаточно. Такие любят прислушиваться к чужому мнению, тщательно пережевывают поданную информацию и идут туда, куда им указывают. Овцы способны зарабатывать только в периоды спокойного рынка, торгуя слепо по тенденции. Когда же рынок волатилен и не имеет тренда, овцы послушно дают себя стричь. Впрочем, овец стригут всегда. _______________________ Добрый день зоопарк!!!)))
FTSE 100 slumps 2.6% to 7,141 to wipe all gains on year’s trading but New York recovers late onShares in London plunged for a sixth day and by the largest amount since the Brexit vote as concerns grew that febrile global stock markets, which have lost $4tn (£2.9tn) in value since Friday, were in the grip of panic-selling.The FTSE 100 slumped 2.6% to 7,141 to wipe out all the gains from this year’s trading and set the index of Britain’s most valuable companies on course for a second week of losses. Investors took fright elsewhere in Europe, with markets in Germany, France and Spain all closing down by more than 2%. Continue reading...
В этом году вступают в силу важные изменения в валютном законодательстве, которые способны облегчить жизнь частным инвесторам. Надо лишь знать закон и безукоризненно его соблюдать
After a London Stock Exchange EGM sees a shareholder resolution brought by Sir Chris Hohn's TCI hedge fund defeated, which had called for "removal" of the bourse's chairman Donald Brydon, the question now turns to who will become the exchange's next permanent CEO.
Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman is a crown prince in a hurry. Besides detaining members of his family in a corruption sweep and painting a high-tech vision of the kingdom’s
Toys R Us can’t find £9m to help save 3,200 jobs. So what went on when the UK arm wrote off a £584m loan to its US parent?It looks terrible for the Pension Protection Fund (PPF): the pensions lifeboat fund is planning to vote against a restructuring of the UK arm of Toys R Us, an action that could mean 3,200 people lose their jobs. On the company’s proposal, only 800 employees would depart and the others would resume the fight against Amazon’s invasion of the toy market.The PPF, however, is not to blame for this mess. Its hands are tied. The PPF’s jobis to look out for the interests of pensioners in Toys R Us’s defined benefit scheme and bargain accordingly. It has put forward a plan that looks more than reasonable: Toys R Us, as the price of support for its self-help plan, should put £9m into a pension fund that is showing a £30m deficit. Continue reading...
TCI motion to remove Donald Brydon gets only 20% support
There are limits to how far regulators are obliged to save individuals from their own stupidity, but binary options are a clear case for interventionThe most useless financial product invented this century is probably the binary option. It is a fancy name for the opportunity to guess whether the value of a share, a commodity, an index or a currency will rise or fall over a short period of time. Absurdly, such periods can be just 30 seconds.Since price movements over such a timeframe are virtually random, trading binary options is really equivalent to betting on the fall of a coin – although the odds, inevitably, are worse than 50:50. By no stretch of the imagination can this activity be considered investment. Continue reading...