At Templeton Emerging Markets Group, we believe emerging market (EM) small-capitalization (small-cap) stocks represent an attractive proposition in the current investment climate. However, there are some common misconceptions regarding the asset class that conceal key strengths we believe an active manager could capitalize on. Here, I join my colleagues Stephen Dover, chief investment officer of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, and Chetan Sehgal, director of Global Emerging Markets/Small-Cap Strategies, to talk about investing in this space. Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets - Notes from Mark Mobius Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team based in 15 global emerging markets offices and manages emerging markets portfolios. As he spans the globe in search of investment opportunities, his “Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets” blog gives readers a taste for what he does, when, where, why and how. Dr. Mobius has written several books, including “Trading with China,” “The Investor’s Guide to Emerging Markets,” “Mobius on Emerging Markets,” “Passport to Profits,” “Equities—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” “Mutual Funds—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” ”The Little Book of Emerging Markets,” and “Mark Mobius: An Illustrated Biography."
The famed emerging markets investor sees Brazilian stocks gaining around 50 percent over the next four years. Fred Katayama reports. Subscribe: http://smarturl.it/reuterssubscribe More updates and breaking news: http://smarturl.it/BreakingNews Reuters tells the world's stories like no one else. As the largest international multimedia news provider, Reuters provides coverage around the globe and across topics including business, financial, national, and international news. For over 160 years, Reuters has maintained its reputation for speed, accuracy, and impact while providing exclusives, incisive commentary and forward-looking analysis. http://reuters.com/ https://www.facebook.com/Reuters https://plus.google.com/u/0/s/reuters https://twitter.com/Reuters
Although frontier markets are a small subset of the emerging market universe, we think they represent an important constituency that offer some compelling potential opportunities. Here, I’ve invited my colleague Carlos Hardenberg, senior vice president and director of frontier markets strategies at Templeton Emerging Markets Group, to outline some of the opportunities he sees in these dynamic markets and debunk some of the urban myths. Carlos Hardenberg Senior Vice President and Managing Director Templeton Emerging Markets Group There are a number of urban myths about frontier markets (the less-developed subset of the emerging-market universe). We think these myths may have caused investors to overlook them in favour of developed or traditional emerging-market alternatives. We believe conditions are now ripe for a re-evaluation of this important niche. There are some very compelling reasons why many investors might want to take another look at frontier markets today. These can be summed up as the following, which I will delve into further. Expectations for robust economic growth Continued macro development Deep discounts in valuations Low correlations Busting the Urban Myths But first, let’s address those urban myths about frontier markets. The most persistent are perceived illiquidity, small market capitalisation and poorer corporate governance standards. Each of those accusations might be true if one looks just at a narrow selection of markets, but looking at the global opportunity of the frontier space, as we do, provides a better context in our view. While index providers differ in what each regards as a frontier market, we don’t adhere to those definitions or constraints. This gives us more flexibility to explore opportunities beyond a particular benchmark, and avoid some of those limitations. We view frontier markets more broadly as young or new markets in an earlier stage of economic development than larger emerging markets, generally with higher growth rates, less research coverage and a lesser degree of foreign investment. According to our analysis, the daily turnover traded on stock exchanges in frontier markets is US$2.1 billion every day. So it’s more liquid than many people think. Equally, we estimate the total market cap of frontier companies is $1.7 trillion. Because new companies are constantly coming to market, we’d expect that figure to continue to increase. Active Management as a Force for Good Governance When it comes to concerns about corporate governance in frontier markets, we’d champion what we consider the positive influence of active management. Looking back at the development of emerging markets in general over recent decades, the relationship between ownership and management has been an important one. We believe most of the positive change came because of the close collaboration between shareholders and the businesses, and the constant feedback both ways. This is not something that can typically be achieved through a passive investing approach. If you have a computer program directing investment decisions or an algorithm determining the weighting of shares, it raises the question of who is going to interact with management and who is going to vote at shareholder meetings on matters of corporate governance. We think that is particularly important when one is considering frontier markets. Let’s turn now to the reasons that we think frontier markets pose an interesting potential opportunity for investors today. Economic Growth It shouldn’t come as a surprise to many investors that the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world today fall under the emerging markets banner. But what they might not have expected is that once one strips out China and India, the remaining eight fastest-growers are actually frontier markets. There are economic and demographic reasons why we see that trend of fast growth likely to continue. These include a low median population age, increasing urbanisation in frontier markets compared with emerging and developed counterparts, and low but growing per-capita income. Continued Macro Development Our optimism about the opportunities frontier markets present is underpinned by the evidence we have seen of a real reform agenda across many of them—in marked contrast to the developed world. In the developed world, notably in the United States and Europe, we are seeing signs of a move towards trade restrictions and isolationism that we consider backward economic developments. Meanwhile generally in frontier markets and some emerging markets, we have seen evidence of a quiet but pronounced reform effort taking place. The trajectory of commodity prices has played a part. In the so-called boom years of 2000–2008, when commodity prices were doing well, there was little impetus for reform, especially in those countries that relied on commodity exports. But when the big shock came and commodity prices corrected dramatically, a lot of these countries needed to go back to the drawing board and back to reforms to attract capital to finance development. At the end of the day, in order to attract capital, countries—especially frontier markets—need to show the world they can enact reforms. Argentina is a great example of that. After Mauricio Macri was elected president in December 2015 under the banner of a “Let’s Change” slogan, he implemented a number of reforms including lifting currency controls and settling a decade-long lawsuit that had blocked Argentina from international capital markets. As a result of those reforms, Argentina was again able to access the international capital markets. In April 2016, it launched a US$16.5 billion government bond. Egypt is now going through a similar experience. It floated its currency and subsequently secured a US$12 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund. These examples show us that reform efforts can translate into economic activity. Attractive Valuations with Limited Correlation When we talk about the attractiveness of frontier-market investing, the single most important factor for many investors tends to be valuations. Currently, frontier market equities are trading at what we consider very cheap valuations compared with both developed and emerging market peers, as the first chart below shows. At the same time, as an asset class frontier markets have traditionally had very little correlation1 with emerging markets such as China, Brazil or Indonesia, or with developed markets including the United States,... Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets - Notes from Mark Mobius Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team based in 15 global emerging markets offices and manages emerging markets portfolios. As he spans the globe in search of investment opportunities, his “Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets” blog gives readers a taste for what he does, when, where, why and how. Dr. Mobius has written several books, including “Trading with China,” “The Investor’s Guide to Emerging Markets,” “Mobius on Emerging Markets,” “Passport to Profits,” “Equities—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” “Mutual Funds—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” ”The Little Book of Emerging Markets,” and “Mark Mobius: An Illustrated Biography."
Доброе утро! Американские индексы закончили торги понедельника на положительной территории на фоне подписания соглашения с Саудовской Аравией на 280 миллиардов долларов, в том числе оборонных контрактов на 110 миллиардов долларов. Так же рынки сегодня будут ждать обнародывания проекта бюджета, в рамках которого предполагается выделить 200 млрд долларов в течение 10 лет на стимулирование инвестирования в инфраструктуру. Председатель совета директоров Templeton Emerging Markets Group Марк Мобиус заявил, что Американские активы в следующие два-три года будут показывать более слабые результаты по сравнению с рынками Европы и стран с развивающейся экономикой. Выступая на инвестиционном форуме в Дубае, он сказал, что динамика «доллара США будет отставать от евро и ряда других валют». В целом доверие к emerging markets вернулось, полагает известный инвестор. «Рост EM касается не только акций, но и активов с фиксированной доходностью», — отметил он. М.Мобиус также сказал, что интерес вызывают предприятия малого и среднего бизнеса в Китае, а также местные интернет-компании, сообщило агентство Bloomberg. В Южной Корее должны начаться реформы после смены президента, а также из-за того, что крупные компании похоже «находятся в беде», полагает глава Templeton. Коррупционные скандалы в Бразилии тоже могут привести к изменениям, считает он. Похожего мнения придерживаются и аналитики Julius Baer, которые считают, что инвесторы переключаются с рынка США на ценные бумаги других рынков. «Инвесторы больше не чувствуют необходимости покупать на рынке США и все больше готовы рассматривать ценные бумаги других рынков. Если доллар США не укрепится и ставки не покажут рост, ситуация окажется благоприятной для азиатских рынков». Нефтянной рынок находится в ожидании встречи ОПЕК которая пройдет с 24 по 25 мая. Министр энергетики Саудовской Аравии Халид аль-Фалих и министр нефти Ирака Джабар аль-Лаиби договорились продлить соглашение по сокращению добычи нефти на девять месяцев, пишет агентство Блумберг со ссылкой на заявления министров. «Министр нефти Ирака Джабар аль-Лаиби поддержал предложение Саудовской Аравии и РФ о продлении соглашения по сокращению добычи на девять месяцев после переговоров с министром нефти Саудовской Аравии Халидом аль-Фалихом в Багдаде. Аль-Фалих не ожидает возражений против продления сделки на девять месяцев. По его словам, все члены ОПЕК, с которыми он говорил, поддерживают этот шаг», — пишет агентство. По словам аль-Фалиха, детали сделки практически совпадают с договоренностями, достигнутыми ОПЕК и странами, не входящими в ОПЕК, в декабре. «Два небольших производителя выразили готовность присоединиться к сокращениям, но это не приведет к большим изменениям. Вопрос об увеличении сокращений будет окончательно согласован не раньше встречи ОПЕК 25 мая», — отметил министр энергетики Саудовской Аравии. В свою очередь Генсек ОПЕК М.Баркиндо, отметил высокий уровень выполнения соглашения. «Уровень запасов нефти снижается. Запасы нефти в странах ОЭСР в апреле снизились на 12 млн баррелей, падение происходит третий месяц подряд. Общий уровень запасов на 253 млн баррелей выше среднего пятилетнего уровня, по сравнению с 282 млн баррелей в марте и 329 млн баррелей в феврале. Более того, мы также видим цифры, демонстрирующие снижение запасов в плавучих хранилищах на 40 млн баррелей с начала года», — сказал генеральный секретарь картеля. «За пределами США, мы полагаем, что продолжается мировая тенденция к снижению запасов. США, очевидно, не отражают глобальный тренд, с учетом роста добычи в первом квартале 2017 года, но даже здесь рынок демонстрирует падение запасов нефти благодаря росту переработки», — отметил М.Баркиндо. «Относительно того, как мы видим процесс сегодня, проще сказать: мы видим некоторый свет в конце тоннеля», — добавил он. «И позвольте мне заверить вас, что ОПЕК и страны-участницы соглашения не из числа ОПЕК твердо и решительно нацелены довести до конца процесс ребалансировки рынка, в интересах как производителей, так и потребителей, и в целом мировой экономики», — подчеркнул М.Баркиндо. Сегодня рынки традиционно будут ждать статистики по запасам от API (23.30 мск). Эксперты ждут снижения на 2 млн баррелей. На Российском рынке совокупный чистый приток денежных средств в фонды, инвестирующие в акции РФ, за неделю с 11 по 17 мая 2017 года составил $82,9 млн, по данным Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. Между тем, как сообщается в обзоре Sberbank Investment Research, фонды, специализирующиеся только на акциях РФ (Russia-dedicated funds), за отчетный период потеряли $89,6 млн. В целом фонды акций, инвестирующие в EM (развивающиеся рынки), привлекли за отчетную неделю $3,9 млрд. «Опасения относительно будущего администрации президента США Дональда Трампа, а также обещанного им бюджетного стимулирования, по-видимому, спровоцировали отток инвестиций из США на развивающиеся рынки в последние восемь недель. В результате девятую неделю подряд наблюдался чистый приток средств в фонды развивающихся рынков», — говорится в обзоре. В то же время в нем сообщается, что чистый отток средств из фондов, ориентированных только на Россию, наблюдался шестую неделю подряд, но в целом вложения в российские акции в течение последних четырех недель увеличивались. JPMorgan повысил рейтинг акций РФ с «нейтрально» до «выше рынка», говорится в обзоре инвестбанка. Аналитики JPMorgan повысили рейтинг акций нефтегазового сектора РФ до «выше рынка», акции финансового сектора РФ уже имеют рейтинг «выше рынка». «Мы повысили рекомендуемый вес акций РФ в портфеле до „выше рынка“ после повышения рекомендуемого веса для акций российских компаний энергетического сектора. Акции финансового сектора РФ уже имеют рейтинг „выше рынка“, — говорится в обзоре. Эксперты ожидают, что недавнее ралли на нефтяном рынке станет драйвером роста для российского фондового рынка, который в последнее время был недооценен относительно GEM. Сегодня будут опубликованы финансовые результаты по МСФО за первый квартал МТС. Консенсус-прогноз, на основе ожиданий аналитиков: чистая прибыль снизилась на 16,9% — до 12,059 миллиарда рублей с 14,507 миллиарда рублей за аналогичный период 2016 года. Выручка в январе-марте составила 104,457 миллиарда рублей, что на 3,4% меньше, чем в первом квартале 2016 года. Показатель OIBDA снизился на 1,8% — до 40,520 миллиарда рублей с 41,279 миллиарда рублей. Как мы видим на графике бумаге за 9 лет не удалось обновить максимум 2008 года, но тем не менее МТС может представлять интерес в среднесрочной и краткосрочной перспективе исключительно как спекулятивный инструмент. Индекс ММВБ на прошедшей тороговой сессии продолжил снижение и при дальнейшем развитии негативной тенденции цели внизу остаются прежними 1935п и 1915п. Зона покупок на данный момент находится над 1980п. фРТС здесь зоной сопротивления к росту выступают две отметки 108500 и основная 109000п, закрепление над последней даст шанс подрасти инструменту к 110000п. Ключевые поддержки по прежнему 106000 и 105400п. Для регулярного выхода утреннего обзора ставьте пожалуйста плюсы.
Марк Мобиус, исполнительный председатель Templeton Emerging Markets Group и легендарный инвестор, нашел, кто виноват в падении волатильности.
Сухой порт в специальной экономической зоне Казахстана "Хоргос – Восточные ворота" на границе c Китаем. Фото: KTZE-Khorgos Gateway
Председатель правления Templeton Emerging Markets Group Марк Мобиус заявил о том, что США должны не игнорировать, а принять участие в инфраструктурном проекте Китая "Один пояс один путь".
Председатель правления Templeton Emerging Markets Group Марк Мобиус заявил о том, что США должны не игнорировать, а принять участие в инфраструктурном проекте Китая "Один пояс - один путь".
Председатель правления Templeton Emerging Markets Group Марк Мобиус объяснил, почему на мировых фондовых рынках наблюдается период низкой волатильности. По его мнению, на это влияют социальные сети.
On a recent visit to Argentina, I was interested to see how things have changed under the leadership of a new administration—in many cases, due to constructive policy reforms. Work still remains to be done to address challenges, and the path forward may be a little bumpy at times, but the progress we have seen has been encouraging so far. Here, my Argentina-based colleague Santiago Petri and I weigh in. Mark Mobius Executive Chairman, Templeton Emerging Markets Group President Mauricio Macri has instituted a number of changes, including the removal of currency controls on the Argentinian peso, tax reforms, revisions to how inflation statistics are calculated, new central bank appointments—and perhaps most importantly, settling with foreign creditors on long-ago defaulted debt. In my view, decisive and intelligent decisions have generally marked President Macri’s first year. A particularly positive development has been the tax amnesty law. And recently, ratings agency Standard & Poor’s upgraded the country’s long-term credit rating, citing progress in rectifying several macroeconomic imbalances, which is encouraging. Running the Numbers Argentina’s economic growth has been very spotty and volatile over the years. In the past 10 years, Argentina’s economy has experienced four years of shrinkage: 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2016. But, there have also been some nice rebounds, with gross-domestic-product growth (GDP) surging 10% in 2010 and 2.5% in 2015. After 2016’s contraction, this year GDP growth is expected to recover to 2.7% amid President Macri’s new growth-oriented policies.1 Meanwhile, inflation has been trending higher over the past decade, running below 10% in 2007–2009 but then spiking to around 40% in 2016. Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her administration were accused of tampering with inflation statistics to hide the detrimental impact of big spending programs and an ever-increasing fiscal deficit the central bank had financed through currency printing. The administration attacked the National Statistics Institute, which reports consumer price index (CPI) data, and fired statisticians presenting data viewed as negative or unsupportive. Upon taking office, the new Macri administration immediately normalized the Statistics Institute so that Argentina now has a more reliable instrument to track inflation performance. Macri gave the central bank total autonomy, and the monetary authority seems to be making progress in taming inflation. Reducing inflation temporarily from dramatically high levels is a relatively easier task than bringing inflation down to a more sustainable, long-term, single-digit range. This is currently the central bank’s main challenge. Inflation is expected to decelerate this year to about 22%, but the government still views that as too high. In 2016, poor economic conditions caused Argentina’s unemployment rate to shoot up to slightly above 9%, but it is expected to fall to about 8.5% this year.2 Argentina’s stock market has generally underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the past 10 years, but with the new government, there has been improvement. In 2016, Argentina’s Merval Index surged more than 40% and is up nearly 30% year-to-date.3 Valuations of Argentine stocks have begun to come up from a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of about three times earnings in 2012 to about 12 times earnings in 2016.4 This is still lower than the peak achieved in 2007, when the Argentine market was selling at an average P/E ratio of 24. Like many other emerging-market currencies, the value of the Argentine peso per US dollar has declined. In 2012, one US dollar could purchase about 4.3 Argentine pesos; today, one US dollar can purchase 15.4 pesos.5 Down to Business During our visit to Buenos Aires, my colleagues and I had a meeting with a leading Latin American e-commerce company. They said the potential in countries including Mexico and others in Latin America looks great because of the increasing penetration of the Internet. In particular, smart phones are gradually becoming ubiquitous around the world and allow retailing companies to reach more customers. At one of the Argentine banks, we discussed the impact of Argentina’s high inflation rate. The bank’s loan growth had been running at about 35%, but when the inflation rate is subtracted from that, real growth is only about 15%. Currently the spread between their cost of funds and their lending is wide, aiding the bank’s profitability. Like other major banks in Argentina, profitability has been good. They said they are moving ahead aggressively on digital banking and paying particular attention to the younger generations (below the age of 27) in order to build a clientele for the future. At an Argentine oilfield pipe manufacturer, we learned that after a disastrous few years when oil prices crashed and the demand for pipes used in the oil and gas drilling plummeted, things were beginning to look up and demand for pipe was recovering. The company has global operations and is a testament to the technical, managerial and entrepreneurial abilities of the Argentinians. A leader in high-quality oilfield pipe, the company also has factories in other parts of the world where their oil-drilling clients operate. We marveled at the fortunate timing of a new plant the company built when oil prices were low and going lower; now that oil prices have recovered, the outlook has improved. At a large steel company, our discussion focused on tremendous excess capacity in China, and the closure of a number of steel mills there. In addition to operations in Argentina, the firm also has facilities in other Latin American countries. The company officials mentioned that labor costs in Mexico were much lower than in Brazil and Argentina. We discussed the new US administration and potential policies that would restrict imports and what impact this would have on their business—which could actually be positive in some scenarios. Constructive Reforms In 2001, Argentina defaulted on more than US $90 billion of its external debt and, refusing to negotiate with creditors, the prior Argentine president left the country’s ability to access bond markets in a holding pattern. In 2016, following the Macri Administration’s renewed efforts to pursue an agreement, Argentina was able to return to the capital markets with a bond sale... Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets - Notes from Mark Mobius Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team based in 15 global emerging markets offices and manages emerging markets portfolios. As he spans the globe in search of investment opportunities, his “Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets” blog gives readers a taste for what he does, when, where, why and how. Dr. Mobius has written several books, including “Trading with China,” “The Investor’s Guide to Emerging Markets,” “Mobius on Emerging Markets,” “Passport to Profits,” “Equities—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” “Mutual Funds—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” ”The Little Book of Emerging Markets,” and “Mark Mobius: An Illustrated Biography."
Templeton Emerging Markets Group has a wide investment universe to cover—tens of thousands of companies in markets on nearly every continent. While we are bottom-up investors, we also take into account big-picture context. Here, I share the Templeton Emerging Markets Group’s overview of what happened in the emerging-markets universe in the first quarter of 2017, including some key events, milestones and data points going back a bit further to offer some perspective. Overview Emerging-market stocks advanced in the first three months of 2017, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 11.4%, recording the strongest first-quarter performance since 2012.1 Firming economic data in Asia and diminished concerns over potential US trade policy helped lift emerging-market equities. Frontier markets lagged emerging markets but outperformed developed markets, with the MSCI Frontier Markets Index up 9.1% in US-dollar terms.2 Among commodities, precious and industrial metals advanced the most, while oil and natural gas prices declined during the quarter. High oil inventory levels and US rig counts have led to increased concerns about oversupply. Emerging-market currencies generally gained against the US dollar over the quarter, as waning confidence in the ability of the US government to stimulate growth or impose trade sanctions led investors to adopt a weaker view on the US dollar. The Mexican peso, Russian ruble and South Korean won were among the top-performing currencies. The Turkish lira and Philippine peso, however, depreciated. Country Updates and Key Developments For those who are interested in really diving into the numbers, I am including some country updates that show changes in key economic indicators and measures more recently and going back further. In Asia, Indian and South Korean equity markets made strong advances in the first quarter, as both markets benefited from local currency strength. Several economists trimmed their 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts for India, expecting a temporary negative impact on consumption from cash shortages resulting from last-year’s surprise move to withdraw large-denominated currency notes from circulation. However, growth is still expected to be strong, forecast at 7.2% in 2017 and 7.7% in 2018, making India one of the fasting-growing major economies in the world.3 We continue to favor companies in the consumer sector in India that we feel are well placed to benefit from higher per-capita income and growing demand for goods and services, which, in turn, should support the earnings-growth outlook for consumer-oriented stocks. In addition, India’s ruling party scored gains in state elections, and legislation related to the incoming Goods-and-Services Tax continued to progress. Meanwhile, South Korea saw court approval of the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, who, later in March, was arrested over an ongoing corruption probe. Chinese equities benefited from solid economic data, a stable renminbi and easing capital-outflow concerns. Real estate, consumer discretionary and information-technology (IT) companies outperformed over the quarter. The MSCI Taiwan Index reached a five-year high in March, supported by appreciation in the Taiwanese dollar.4 Industrials, IT and consumer staples were among the top-performing sectors. Thai shares rose on optimism from local institutional buyers, supported by upward revisions to Thailand’s GDP growth forecasts and a neutral monetary policy amid an improved growth outlook. In Indonesia, the central bank kept rates on hold, expecting growth to continue to progress. Foreign investors in particular turned positive on Indonesian equities. In Latin America, a strong appreciation in the Mexican peso (which had reached an all-time low in January), fading concerns about a deterioration in Mexico’s bilateral relationship with the United States, as well as a generally improved outlook in recent months drove the Mexican equity market’s solid performance in the first quarter. We believe the uncertainties of the new US administration have led to lower valuations in Mexico, providing long-term investors an attractive entry point. In our view, the valuations of both Mexico’s currency and stocks are compelling as country risk is falling and unemployment remains at decade lows. Inflation expectations, however, continue to be revised upwards and consumer confidence remains depressed. We believe the financials sector in Mexico looks attractive, with sound asset quality and structural growth opportunities. The Mexican industrial sector is also globally competitive and trading at low valuations. We are also monitoring other sectors, including the consumer sector. In Chile, a positive trend in copper prices and improved sentiment regarding the outcome of the 2017 presidential elections supported equity prices. Expansionary monetary policy and a positive reform outlook supported investor sentiment in the Brazilian market, while Argentina’s equity market responded positively to the Argentine economy’s return to growth in the second half of 2016 following a recession in the first half. A possible upgrade to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index further drove investor sentiment. Emerging markets in Europe saw diverse performances in the first quarter. Major stock indexes in Poland and Turkey ended the quarter with double-digit gains in US-dollar terms, while equities in Russia and Greece generally saw declines. The Polish economy grew at its fastest pace in nine years in the final quarter of 2016, while a decline in natural gas prices pressured investor sentiment in Russia. Turkey’s equity market rose on higher-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth data, despite a weaker lira. In Africa, South African shares underperformed their emerging-market peers largely based on a 9% decline (in US-dollar terms) in the final week of March,5 most of which was driven by depreciation of the rand due to a cabinet reshuffle resulting in the removal of the finance minister. Our Outlook After a return to form in 2016 and following an encouraging start to 2017, many of the factors that originally attracted investors to emerging markets may be coming back into play, including generally stronger earnings growth, higher economic growth and robust consumer trends. Even in regions that are still going through adjustment and rebalancing, we are seeing improved visibility and increasing signs of robust underlying economic conditions such as low debt, stabilizing commodity markets, reduced currency volatility and improving consumer confidence. The general landscape of emerging-market corporations has undergone a significant transformation from the often plain-vanilla business models of the... Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets - Notes from Mark Mobius Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team based in 15 global emerging markets offices and manages emerging markets portfolios. As he spans the globe in search of investment opportunities, his “Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets” blog gives readers a taste for what he does, when, where, why and how. Dr. Mobius has written several books, including “Trading with China,” “The Investor’s Guide to Emerging Markets,” “Mobius on Emerging Markets,” “Passport to Profits,” “Equities—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” “Mutual Funds—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” ”The Little Book of Emerging Markets,” and “Mark Mobius: An Illustrated Biography."
The prospect of stabilizing commodity prices and improving corporate earnings has helped rebuild investor interest in emerging markets over the past year. But returning investors may find the constituents of today’s emerging markets are very different from those of the past. I’ve invited my colleague Carlos Hardenberg to share some of his experiences of how emerging markets are not just emerging but evolving, too. Carlos Hardenberg Senior Vice President and Managing Director Templeton Emerging Markets Group When we look at the emerging-market companies in which we invest today, they are worlds away from the companies we were analysing a decade or two ago. The landscape of emerging-market corporations in general has undergone a significant transformation from the often plain-vanilla business models of the past that tended to focus on infrastructure, telecommunications, classic banking models or commodity-related businesses, to a new generation of very innovative companies that are moving into technology and much higher value-added production processes. Furthermore, we’re starting to see the establishment of some very strong globally represented brands which originate from emerging-market countries. Back in the late 1990s, when I was starting out in the emerging-market investing world, technology-oriented companies made up only around 3% of the universe, as represented by the MCSI Emerging Markets (EM) Index.1 Even six years ago, information technology (IT) represented less than 10% of investable companies in the index.2 Much has changed since then. Today, around a quarter of the MSCI EM Index is in the IT sector, which includes hardware, software, components and suppliers. And while much of this activity is originating in Asia, including Taiwan, South Korea and increasingly China, we are also seeing similar developments in Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe and even Africa. The IT sector can be a difficult space to understand and value. Business models are rapidly changing as they adapt to the shifting demands of consumers, and respond to new environmental requirements. Thus, one needs to spend more time understanding and evaluating individual companies before investing in the right stocks, also based on desired risk tolerance. Currently, we have identified opportunities among some larger-sized companies, but tend to generally favour mid-sized companies we think have the potential to outgrow the market as a whole. We look for companies we believe have the ability to adapt more efficiently and are more flexible in adjusting to a fast-changing environment, run by flexible and well-incentivised management teams. The Value of Active Management in Emerging-Market Investing While there has been a considerable evolution in the emerging-market investing universe over the last decade, we remain adamant in our belief that emerging markets remain an investment asset class in which active management should play a vital role for a number of reasons. Emerging markets tend to have their own business rules and regulations which affect companies, corporations differ largely in their attitude towards minority investors, governance standards vary significantly and local intricacies determine consumer trends and habits. We often need to develop fairly close relationships to gain a better understanding of business prospects and find successful management teams that respect the rules. We think these factors could be an important consideration as attention returns to emerging markets on the back of the generally improving performances we have seen in these markets recently. After more than three years of languishing at depressed levels, earnings in emerging-market companies are showing signs of recovery, and that is reflected in the attitudes of companies and their management as well as in their financial data. Recently, on a trip to Dubai, my team and I met a range of companies from Africa, the Middle East and other emerging markets, which were far more confident and open in sharing their outlook for the next 12-to-24 months. Even in regions that are still going through a phase of adjustment and rebalancing, we see improving visibility and increasingly evident robust underlying economic conditions such as low debt, stabilizing commodity markets, reduced currency volatility and improving consumer confidence. After a relatively bleak period for emerging markets, it seems that many of the factors that have attracted investors to the asset class, including stronger earnings growth, higher gross domestic product growth levels and far more attractive consumer trends, may be coming back into play. Carlos Hardenberg’s comments, opinions and analyses are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. Important Legal Information All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. ____________________________________ 1. Source: MSCI. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 emerging -market countries. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot directly invest in an index. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. See www.franklintempletondataservices.com for additional data provider information. 2. Ibid. Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets - Notes from Mark Mobius Mark Mobius, Ph.D., executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined Templeton in 1987. Currently, he directs the Templeton research team based in 15 global emerging markets offices and manages emerging markets portfolios. As he spans the globe in search of investment opportunities, his “Investment Adventures in Emerging Markets” blog gives readers a taste for what he does, when, where, why and how. Dr. Mobius has written several books, including “Trading with China,” “The Investor’s Guide to Emerging Markets,” “Mobius on Emerging Markets,” “Passport to Profits,” “Equities—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” “Mutual Funds—An Introduction to the Core Concepts,” ”The Little Book of Emerging Markets,” and “Mark Mobius: An Illustrated Biography."
Фондовые индексы АТР выросли в среду на фоне укрепления доллара, сильных статданных из КНР
Эйфория наступила на азатских рынках: акции пошли в рост, но раллии в Азии будут продолжаться, несмотря на угрозу со стороны политики Трампа, считает Марк Мобиус, исполнительный председатель Templeton Emerging Markets Group.
Эйфория наступила на азиатских рынках: акции пошли в рост, но ралли в Азии будут продолжаться, несмотря на угрозу со стороны политики Трампа, считает Марк Мобиус, исполнительный председатель Templeton Emerging Markets Group.