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Marks & Spencer
14 сентября, 17:08

Pound rallies as Bank of England targets rate rise in coming months to combat inflation

Majority of Bank of England's MPC believes "some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months" to combat inflation MPC voted 7-2 in favour of leaving interest rates at 0.25pc Pound jumps on currency markets as traders digest the hawkish hint on rates in the BoE's statement; sterling is trading 1.4pc higher at $1.34 FTSE 100 plummets on stronger pound; miners weigh heavily after disappointing Chinese data The Bank of England has laid the groundwork in its latest policy decision to raise interest rates before the end of the year to combat rising inflation squeezing UK households. The central bank said that "some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months" to bring inflation back down to its 2pc target and ease the pressure on consumer spending. The Monetary Policy Committee's 7-2 split in favour of leaving interest rates at 0.25pc initially sunk the pound before it soared as traders found the hawkish hint deep in the central bank's statement. Against the dollar, sterling jumped 0.8pc higher to above $1.33 following the release with the markets caught off guard by the surprise shift. Pantheon Macro UK economist Samuel Tombs said that the rhetoric was a "clear communication shift" from governor Mark Carney and the MPC. "While there has not been a rate rise today, over the next 12-24 months rates will rise higher and faster than market expectations," said Nick Dixon, investment director at Aegon. "This will be good news for those seeking annuity income or with cash savings and bad news for mortgage holders." 6:59PM Market report Mining stocks tumbled on the FTSE 100 yesterday as concerns of an economic slowdown in China were reignited by stuttering industrial production in the Asian powerhouse. Industrial output growth, which underpins demand for base metal and their prices, slowed in August to 6pc, far weaker than expected and a drop from July’s already sluggish figures. London’s miners reliant on a strong Chinese economy slumped alongside metal prices as the joint-worst industrial output figure in 20 months played into fears that economic activity in the world’s second largest economy is decelerating. A marked slowdown in infrastructure investment was the main culprit for the slowdown, according to Capital Economics’ China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard. “The decline was driven by private firms, who appear to have been hardest hit by the government’s efforts to cut industrial capacity,” he explained, adding that China’s economy will suffer in coming quarters from the government front-loading fiscal spending this year and tighter monetary conditions. After rallying during the summer, copper prices suffered a third day of decline, slipping 1.3pc to $6,457 per tonne, a four-week low. Jittery investors pulled out of huge miners exposed to the Chinese economy with Rio Tinto weighing heaviest on the FTSE 100, slipping 124.5p to £35. Rivals Glencore and BHP Billiton weakened 12p to 351.6p and 47p to £13.62, respectively, while Anglo American outperformed its peers, dipping just 32.5p to £13.17. The pound’s surge after the Bank of England surprised markets by giving its strongest hint yet that it will hike interest rates before the end of the year punctured the blue-chip index already treading water. Also weakened by a spate of individual fallers, the FTSE 100 retreated 84.31 points to 7295.39. Experian dived 74p to £14.59 on a read across from troubled US rival Equifax as Democratic senator Mark Warner asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate the credit-reporting agencies’ cybersecurity defenses. The probe into the huge data leak at Equifax, which included details on 143m Americans, was widened to include Experian yesterday afternoon with Republican Carolyn Maloney sending a letter to the company asking what steps it had taken to protect consumers’ data. Retailer Next, a rare bright spot in London, skyrocketed 577p to £49.94 on a brighter outlook following a challenging first half of 2017, pulling up peers Marks & Spencer and Debenhams 9.1p to 333.6p and 0.5p to 42p, respectively. On the FTSE 250, Spire Healthcare crashed 57.7p to 252.2p, a 19pc plummet, after cutting its guidance on softer NHS referral figures with blue-chip peer Mediclinic International, which has a 30pc stake in Spire and is persistently linked with a full takeover of the company, dropping 23.5p to 711p. 5:12PM Markets wrap: Bank of England prepares the markets for an interest rate hike before the end of the year Mark Carney with the new £10 note featuring Jane Austen The Bank of England has given its strongest hint yet that it will raise interest rates before the end of the year to curb climbing inflation tightening the squeeze on UK households.  Governor Mark Carney and the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at 0.25pc but added that "some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months" to bring down inflation. The pound initially dived on the dovish 7-2 split in favour of keeping monetary policy unchanged but traders soon found the headline grabber hidden deep in the Bank of England's statement, sending it soaring on currency markets.  Against the dollar, it surged 1.4pc to a fresh one-year high at $1.3390 while against the euro it pushed up to an eight-week high. Sterling's jump dragged down the FTSE 100 already treading water as miners retreated on China economic worries. Blue-chip firm Next, a rare bright spot in London, skyrocketed 13pc on a brighter outlook after a challenging first half of the year with retailing peers Marks & Spencer and Debenhams pulled up from a read across. IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said this on today's hint from the BoE: "According to the Bank of England, markets and UK consumers should now be on watch for a rate rise in coming months, but those with long memories will remember that we have been here before, in 2014 and 2016. "If it was not appropriate to raise rates then, without the uncertainty of Brexit hanging over the UK economy and an ongoing wage squeeze on consumers, it does not seem  particularly likely that we will see one now. But for now the bank has succeeded in talking up the currency, which will at least alleviate some inflation pressures." 3:40PM Bank of England reaction: Hike forecasts will need to be reviewed GS break cover and join Nomura in calling for Nov hike from #BOE— stewart hampton (@stewhampton) September 14, 2017 Let's have one final look at what the experts are saying in reaction to the Bank of England's strongest hint yet that interest rates will rise before the end of the year. Investec economist Philip Shaw has said he will have to put his forecast of a hike in 2019 under review following today's statement. He explained: "It seems abundantly clear from the minutes that the Monetary Policy Committee is seriously considering a rate hike at its next meeting in November. We are less concerned over medium-term inflation developments than the MPC. "We view domestic price pressures as remaining muted over the next couple of years and judge that inflation will decline noticeably over the next 12-18 months as the effects of the fall in the pound on inflation begin to fade. Hence our baseline case has been (and just about still is) that the first hike will not occur until well into 2019. But after today’s minutes, we will have to put this forecast seriously under review." Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell said this on how it affected markets: "While some analysts aren’t convinced that this does bring a potential November or December hike into play – mainly for reasons associated with Mark Carney’s personal dovishness and the ongoing fall in real wages – the pound was unambiguous in its response. "The currency rocketed 1.3% higher against the dollar and 1.1% against the euro, striking a $1.335-crossing one year high against the former and, at one point, an 8 week peak against the latter. This made for a miserable Thursday for the FTSE, which plunged more than 1% to sit only a handful of points above 7300." 3:14PM Spire shares dive as NHS referrals fall and £27m is paid out to victims of rogue surgeon  Rogue surgeon Ian Paterson was sentenced in May Spire Healthcare shares have dived on a double blow for the private hospitals group, with NHS referrals down and £27m having to be set aside for compensating victims of rogue breast cancer surgeon Ian Paterson. Shares in the FTSE 250 firm were down 18pc in lunchtime trading after it revised down forecasts for the full-year following an abrupt fall in NHS referrals this summer. The UK’s second largest private healthcare provider said the drop in July and August had led to “significantly lower than anticipated revenues” and it now expects second half revenues to be flat on the previous year, while margins are forecast to be as much as 0.7pc lower at around 16.1pc. The downbeat outlook came after Spire yesterday said it will pay £27.2m in compensation to around 750 private patients who suffered physical and mental pain at the hands of Mr Paterson. Read Iain Withers' full report here Spire Healthcare 3:08PM Bank of England reaction: Pound supported without need to resort to more blunt tools @bankofengland Governor Mark Carney shows sight impaired children at Joseph Clarke school the new £10 note and its new brail feature. #£10 pic.twitter.com/fZZqfJoC6b— Imogen Barrer (@imogenbarrer) September 14, 2017 Sterling has now steadied on currency markets at its one-year high against the dollar and a two-month high against the euro. It's quite ironic that a stronger pound will pull down inflation and thus reduce the need to hike rates to combat rising prices. Maybe that's all Mark Carney and co wanted all along? Head of FX strategy at Rabobank Jane Foley takes a more skeptical view on today's rhetoric shift, saying that Mr Carney and the central bank have been able to support the pound without having "to resort to the more significant tools at its disposal". She said: "Many will understandably now think that a rate rise in imminent, but in fact our view is that it is more likely to be next summer. This is because the MPC is still dominated by doves, such as Mark Carney, who are concerned about the impact higher rates could have on real wages so dependent on consumer spending.   "Of course, the risks could change, particularly if sterling were to devalue further, but for now the Bank’s rhetoric appears to have done its job." 2:41PM FTSE 100 suffering on buoyant pound The FTSE 100 has retreated 1pc following the pound's surge The pound's surge as the Bank of England prepares markets for an interest rate rise in the coming months has weakened the big exporters on the FTSE 100, which rely heavily on overseas earnings. After bobbing around flat territory this morning, the UK's benchmark index has sunk 1pc as the pound soars and the prospect of higher borrowing costs increases. Miners continue to lag as metal prices retreat on the disappointing Chinese industrial production figures pointing to a slowing economy in Asia while Next has held onto to its 10pc gain on its brighter outlook. Troubled doorstep lender Provident Financial has dived another 4.6pc on a broker downgrade while Morrisons has suffered its worst fall in six months as operating margins narrow. 2:20PM Carney surprises markets with suggestion Bank of England could raise interest rates this year The Bank of England surprised markets by indicating that interest rates could go up sooner and more quickly than expected, as it said hikes may be needed to keep inflation under control. Mark Carney and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates on hold at 0.25pc, but said investors do not fully appreciate that rates could rise "over the coming months". Sterling rose by 1pc against the dollar to $1.3341 as a result. The MPC voted by a margin of seven members to two against changing rates, arguing that the Bank of England should be supporting economic growth and employment at a time of economic uncertainty. Read our economics correspondent Tim Wallace's full report on the Bank of England here 2:06PM Bank of England reaction: Minutes struck an upbeat tone on the economy Life in the old bulldog yet - sterling bears getting mauled by hawkish BoE#GBPUSDpic.twitter.com/1c8mDLqcyG— Tom Porter (@TomPorterEE) September 14, 2017 So the question for the BOE now is how long does any hike last before the economic conditions necessitate a cut?— World First (@World_First) September 14, 2017 Today's hawkish talk of an interest rate rise in the coming months did come with its usual side of caveats from the Bank of England but it adopted a cheery tone on the economy. Monetary policy will only be tightened if the economy "follows a path broadly consistent with the August Inflation Report central projection", the central bank said.  The BoE also highlighted the reaction of households and business to developments in the EU withdrawal process as one of the main risks to the outlook. The central bank appeared upbeat on wage growth, however, says Capital Economics UK economist Paul Hollingsworth. He said: "The minutes struck a fairly upbeat tone on the economy too, suggesting that the activity data released since the August meeting points to a slightly stronger picture than anticipated, in the labour market in particular.  "And while regular (i.e. excluding bonuses) pay growth was a bit weaker than the MPC had forecast back in August, this was largely due to the public sector, with private sector pay growth holding up as expected. The news this week that the 1% pay cap is to be lifted for some public sector workers might give the MPC more confidence that some of the weakness will be unwound." Analysts seem to agree that November will be when the Bank of England moves rates rather than the December meeting. 1:44PM Markets are not entirely convinced by the Bank of England's hawkish turn BoE talking tough, clearly trying to steer market rate expectations to a rise sooner rather than later. But talk is cheap. Will it act?— Jamie McGeever (@ReutersJamie) September 14, 2017 The markets are not entirely convinced by today's hawkish turn at the Bank of England and are now pricing in just a 54.7pc chance of a hike before the end of the year. Part of that thinking could be that despite the shift in rhetoric only two policymakers voted for a hike, long-term dissidents Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders. The central bank's chief economist Andy Haldane hinted earlier this summer that he was ready to back a change in monetary policy but he is yet to put his money where his mouth is. Action speaks louder than words, says Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM. He commented: "It should be kept in mind that the unsavoury combination of rising inflation, subdued wage growth and Brexit uncertainty has placed the central bank in a very tight spot. "It becomes a question - will the BoE eventually raise rates to tame inflation, which is currently squeezing UK household? Or will tepid wage growth, concerns over the health of the UK economy and Brexit uncertainty keep the central bank on standby?" 1:35PM Pound eases off on dollar as US inflation comes in stronger than expected Today's CPI figure in the US has boosted the US' own chance of a rate rise The pound's gains on the dollar have eased off in the last few moments after US inflation jumped up to 1.9pc, boosting the chance of an interest rate rise across the Atlantic. One of the prerequisites to a rate hike in the US is that persistently weak inflation figures improve and today's better-than-expected data has bumped up the chance of the Fed also raising rates before the end of the year. 1:12PM November meeting the next opportunity for the Bank of England to raise rates Can I get a rewind!.....Back to June 2014, Mark Carney's Mansion House speech....39 months and counting #RateHike#BankOfEnglandpic.twitter.com/fZFkqyu0XU— CoxeyLoxey (@CoxeyLoxey) September 14, 2017 Mark Carney June 2014 An interest-rate rise " could happen sooner than markets currently expect. " #ForwardGuidance#BoE— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) September 14, 2017 Some analysts are pointing out that Mark Carney and co have teased the markets on interest rate rises before to no avail but this time could be different. Under his reign at the Bank of England inflation has never been higher and, with the European Central Bank and US Federal Reserve also beginning to unwind their monetary stimulus, thinking among the central banking top tier is undoubtedly shifting. The next MPC meeting on November 2 is now the date for the diary of BoE watchers. Global strategist at ADMISI Marc Ostwald has provided this list of what's changed in the Bank of England's assessment of the UK economy: a) GDP no longer needs to be above the pace forecast in August in order to prompt change in their rate trajectory, as Carney then implied, even if he did make it clear that that was his, rather the committee's opinion. b) They note that the July Average Earnings (the 'disappointing' data from yesterday) were above the pace assumed that they were assuming in the Q3 Inflation report, though they suggest that this is probably not signalling a sustained uptrend c) They add that labour market slack is being absorbed at a faster pace than they had been assuming, which gives them less scope to look through above target inflation  d) They now expected CPI to breach 3.0% y/y in October, as against previously expecting it to peak at 3.0% Hamish Muress, currency analyst at OFX, said this on today's decision: "Clearly the Bank isn’t overly concerned about yesterday’s poor wage growth data, and sees the UK economy picking up more quickly than expected. All eyes will be on the Bank in November, to see if it follows through on its promise to raise interest rates.   "The market favours today’s hawkish stance, and the pound rallying against the dollar in anticipation of a coming rate rise." 12:54PM Pound soars on currency markets; improving economic indicators persuaded MPC Against a basket of the leading global currencies, the pound has jumped 0.9pc higher The pound has lit up in luminous green on forex traders' screens and is back up to a fresh one-year high against the dollar, trading at $1.3318. As we predicted, the devil was indeed in the detail but, like the traders that initially sold off sterling on the dovish look to the vote split, I wasn't expecting the headline grabber to be hidden that deep into the Bank of England's statement.  Delving back into the text, indicators pointing a stronger economy is why the Bank of England has been persuaded to take a hawkish turn. Here's the relevant part of the text: Since the August Report, the relatively limited news on activity points, if anything, to a slightly stronger picture than anticipated.  GDP rose by 0.3% in the second quarter, as expected in the MPC’s August projections, although initial estimates of private final demand were softer than anticipated.  The unemployment rate has continued to decline, to 4.3%, its lowest in over 40 years and a little lower than forecast in August.   Survey indicators are consistent with continued strength in employment growth.  Evidence continues to accumulate that the rate of potential supply growth has slowed in recent years.  Overall, the latest indicators are consistent with UK demand growing a little in excess of this diminished rate of potential supply growth, and the continued erosion of what is now a fairly limited degree of spare capacity.  Underlying pay growth has shown some signs of recovery, albeit remaining modest. The #MPC holds fire but hints at future rate rises. Why should anyone believe this when they have been doing the same since 2013?— Andrew Sentance (@asentance) September 14, 2017 12:41PM Snap reaction to Bank of England hint at withdrawal of monetary stimulus #MPC's headline grabber. The words "Majority of MPC members", "some withdrawal of monetary stimulus" & "coming months" in the same sentence. pic.twitter.com/magfoQvnpX— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 14, 2017 Bank of England Minutes Summary: MPC voted 7-2 in favour of keeping rates unchanged at 0.25% as exp; is a November hike on the cards?— RANsquawk (@RANsquawk) September 14, 2017 For the sake of my email inbox, let's have a quick look through the snap reaction to today's Bank of England release. Savers are today's winners and mortgage holders the losers, according to Nick Dixon, investment director at Aegon. He said: "With increasing demand for pay rises to make up declining real income, the inflation challenge is becoming structural. The pressure is on to increase public sector wages to counter inflation, but with a slim majority the government will be wary about matching wage increases with a tax rise. "Hence fiscal policy will loosen and monetary policy will tighten to maintain macro-balance. While there has not been a rate rise today, over the next 12-24 months rates will rise higher and faster than market expectations. This will be good news for those seeking annuity income or with cash savings and bad news for mortgage holders."  The Bank of England has told the markets that the bar to a hike is not that high, says ETX Capital analyst Neil Wilson. He commented: "The Bank of England kept rates on hold as expected but there was a clear signal that the bar to a hike is not that high. On the one hand the decision was a little more dovish with many expecting a 6-3 vote. At 7-2 the doves appear very much in control and this seemed to be taken as a trigger to sell sterling at the moment the vote count was released. "We saw a sharp plunge in cable to 1.31547, before it reversed course and turned higher as the minutes revealed a more hawkish tone than the vote suggested. Sterling jumped back to $1.33 as traders digested the details. Indeed delving deeper into the minutes there are more hawkish tendencies coming to the fore." 12:13PM Bank of England: 'Some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months' Mark Carney and the MPC is targeting a rate rise in the coming months to combat inflation The pound had a bit of a rollercoaster on that one. It initially dipped after traders saw the dovish 7-2 split in the vote and then rallied as traders found the hawkish hint on a rate rise deep in the Bank of England's text. Here's the relevant part on withdrawing monetary stimulus: A majority of MPC members judge that, if the economy continues to follow a path consistent with the prospect of a continued erosion of slack and a gradual rise in underlying inflationary pressure then, with the further lessening in the trade-off that this would imply, some withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months in order to return inflation sustainably to target.   12:03PM Interest rates remain at 0.25pc; stimulus reduction in the coming months MPC holds #BankRate at 0.25%, maintains government bond purchases at £435bn and corporate bond purchases at £10bn. pic.twitter.com/D1w1kcvgrz— Bank of England (@bankofengland) September 14, 2017 The Bank of England's MPC has voted to leave interest rates at 0.25pc with a 7-2 split in the vote. The central bank added that it would target reducing stimulus in the coming months, pushing the pound up 0.5pc against the dollar to $1.3263. 11:30AM Lunchtime (ish) update: Miners weigh on FTSE 100; Next soars 11pc Next upped its profit forecast for the year and said that it has seen "encouraging" trading in the last three months With the Bank of England's decision on interest rates dominating after 12pm, let's have a quick markets update a little earlier than usual. The FTSE 100 has recovered from a poor start and nudged up into positive territory this morning as the global relief rally on stock markets fizzles out. Miners are weighing heaviest on the index this morning after metal prices retreated on disappointing industrial production data while the oil giants have jumped as Brent crude rallies over the $55 per barrel mark. Clothing store Next has soared nearly 11pc after reporting on "somewhat less challenging" trading and the brighter outlook is pulling up M&S and Debenhams On the currency markets, the pound is steady ahead of the Bank of England's decision with markets expecting no change in policy at the central bank. Sterling is trading flat against the dollar, just above $1.32, with the main focus of the MPC's decision today on the split in the vote. 11:13AM Bank of England decision: what the experts say Mark Carney said that the markets were underestimating the chance of a rate hike The consensus of analysts seem to believe that today's decision at the Bank of England could be much ado about nothing if Andy Haldane stays on the side of the doves. There is a rumour on fountain of knowledge Twitter, however, that the split was a lot tighter than expected, 5-4. That would be very intriguing  and the pound would undoubtedly soar if that was the case but a lot of things are said on Twitter.  Someone say MPC split with Carney having deciding vote?— David Belle (@David__Belle) September 14, 2017 Let's have a quick round-up of what the experts are saying ahead of today's Bank of England decision. Lee Wild, head of equity strategy at Interactive Investor doesn't think we'll get a rise until well into next year. He said: "Higher borrowing costs are inevitable, and this week’s inflation data was certainly a surprise to currency markets, but interest rates will not increase this month. At best there will likely be no more than three votes for a hike at today’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Anything more would be a complete shock and put a rocket under sterling.   "It will require another fall in the pound and far bigger overshoot on inflation to make the doves switch sides. Don’t expect a sufficient conversion until well into 2018." The pound is most likely to move lower after today's decision, according to Caxton currency analyst Alexandra Russell-Oliver. She said: "Following the acceleration in inflation last month, investors will look for a more hawkish shift in the overall tone taken or in the vote breakdown. "Any additional dissent amongst the MPC would likely give the pound a boost, but the greater risk is to the downside should those expectations be disappointed. This could see the pound retreat further from the one-year high struck against the dollar yesterday." Marathon Man Carney going into the BoE Meeting like... Let the race begin! https://t.co/dEHOLTpsZhpic.twitter.com/2wTjwIDQID— FXStreet Team (@FXstreetUpdate) September 14, 2017 10:45AM Next soars on sunny outlook after 'difficult' six months Retailers have been weakened by the squeeze on consumer spending Bellwether clothing store Next has soared to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard this morning after indicating that trading has improved following a "difficult" six months. Accendo Markets analyst Mike Van Dulken believes the company could even surprise again in the future: "Shareholders may even be wondering whether today’s upgraded guidance figures are conservative, destined for a beat to ensure a 2016-17 run of downgrades is water under the bridge. Especially with an earlier than usual arrival of cooler weather that could kick-start the run-in to the key Christmas period via increased sales of bigger ticket heavier Autumn/Winter items.   "First half performance was poor to say the least with Retail profits -33.3% on Retail Sales -8.3%, however, this was in line with already cautious guidance. Encouraging, less challenging trends over the last three months (directory sales growth even stronger in Q2) has left management confident enough to be more optimistic about the rest of the year. This bolsters revived summer bullishness towards the shares (despite a still squeezed UK consumer). Elsewhere in the retail sector, John Lewis' 50pc profit fall is also the talk of the town with Guy Ellison, head of UK equities at Investec Wealth & Investment saying that the drop indicates "the scale of the restructuring task it faces". John Lewis blaming Brexit for its poor performance. This morning @Morrisons and @nextofficial have reported rising sales and profits.— Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) September 14, 2017 10:24AM John Lewis profits fall by more than half Pre-tax profits tumbled by 53.3pc to £26.6m at John Lewis Profits at John Lewis Partnership have more than halved in the past six months as the group behind the department store chain and Waitrose has been hit by costs associated with overhauling the business and weakened customer demand from inflationary pressures and political uncertainty. Pre-tax profits tumbled by 53.3pc to £26.6m during the six months to 29 July after it had to absorb £56.4m of costs from making a number of redundancies related to restructuring staff roles at Waitrose and John Lewis as it adapts to changing shopping behaviours. At John Lewis, total sales grew by 2.3pc, helped by the launch of its new exclusive brand AND/OR, while like-for-like sales edged 0.1pc higher. Operating profits before the exceptional items jumped by 38.7pc to £50.2m. Read Ashley Armstrong's full report here 10:15AM Sky takeover referred to the regulator by the Government The Government has referred the Sky takeover to the regulators  21st Century Fox's £11.7bn takeover of Sky has been referred to the regulators by culture secretary Karen Bradley, it has been announced in the last few moments. She said that the CMA will have six months to conduct the phase 2 investigation on broadcasting standards and media plurality grounds. 10:08AM Dissenting voices at BoE will have grown louder this week as inflation rises The fragility of the UK economy is holding back Mark Carney and co from voting for a hike The dissenting voices at the Bank of England will have been a little louder this week as ONS figures indicated that the squeeze on households shows no sign of easing with inflation jumping higher than expected to 2.9pc and wage growth stagnant at 2.1pc. The fragility of the UK economy is holding back Mark Carney and co from backing an interest rate hike but the slowdown in inflation over the summer proved to be a temporary blip. The markets are currently pricing in a 42.7pc chance of an rate rise before the end of the year and Bank of England governor Mark Carney hinted at the last meeting that the markets had underestimated the chance of a hike. #UK - #BoE / #Brexit: Data shows price growth quickening, subdued wage growth. There’s certainly a fair chance that Haldane joins the hawks.— Marc-Andre Fongern (@SkandiStreet) September 14, 2017 MUFG currency analyst Lee Hardman believes that the central bank needs to send a hawkish signal to markets to maintain the pound's upward momentum. He said: "For the recent pound rally to extend further in the near-term, the BoE will need to send a strong signal today that a hike could be imminent. We doubt such a strong hawkish signal will be delivered today and therefore the pound’s recent upward momentum could start to peter out in the near-term. "The latest stronger than expected inflation reading for August will have made uncomfortable reading for the BoE. The BoE will also be concerned by the ongoing tightening in the UK labour market which poses upside risks to domestic inflation pressures in the medium-term." 9:33AM Disappointing Chinese production data pulls down UK miners Chinese industrial production misses in August, up 6.0% y/y and 6.7% ytd y/y pic.twitter.com/0CKZ92Mr3A— Sigma Squawk (@SigmaSquawk) September 14, 2017 copper futures (-1.48%), zinc (-1.20%) and steel rebar (-2.81%) after weak Chinese industrial production data via @IpekOzkardeskay— Jasper Lawler (@jasperlawler) September 14, 2017 The relief rally on stock markets has skidded to a halt this morning with the FTSE 100 pulled down into the red by its huge industrial metal miners. Glencore, Anglo American and Rio Tinto are all among the biggest laggards this morning as metal prices retreated on poor Chinese production data. Chinese industrial output grew by 6pc in August, far below the 6.6pc increase expected by economists and bucking the trend shown in recent PMI surveys. Liberum analyst Richard Knights commented: "Chinese headline macro data for August was surprisingly weak with headline figures missing survey estimates and falling MoM. We had expected momentum to carry the economy for at least a month longer, given the strong PMIs and recent price action in commodities. "Following the strong run in the equities since April and the extended positioning in copper and size of iron ore in port stocks (especially with Indian output returning post monsoon), we believe the risks are firmly to the downside for the sector." 9:21AM Next profits fall 10pc after 'difficult' six months   Pre-tax profits fell 9.5pc to £309.4m Profits at Next have slumped by almost 10pc after a “difficult” six months for the bellwether retailer in which shop sales continued to be eclipsed by its online business. Pre-tax profits fell 9.5pc to £309.4m while total Next sales dropped by 2.2pc to £1.9bn during the six months to the end of July, dragged lower by an 8.3pc drop in store sales. Meanwhile, the group’s online business, Next Directory, grew sales by 5.7pc over the past six months to £868.4m following a big investment boost, although the bulk of the growth was driven by selling third-party brands rather than Next’s own label. Despite the fall in profits, the retailer said it had been “encouraged” by trading over the last three months. Chief executive Lord Simon Wolfson said “our prospects going forward seem to be somewhat less challenging than they did six months ago.” As a result, Next said it would be “modestly upgrading” its sales and profit guidance for the full year. Shares have jumped over 11pc in early trading. Read Ashley Armstrong's full report here 9:05AM Divide at the Bank of England the focus for the markets Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane The divide at the Bank of England over whether to hike interest rates to curb rising inflation will be the focus for the markets at the central bank's latest decision later today. The departure of Kristin Forbes from the Monetary Policy Committee earlier this year left just two dissenting voices at the central bank calling for an interest rate hike, Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty.  Weaker wage data from the UK will continue to restrict the BoE turning to hawkish tomorrow... Haldane unlikely to switch sides— Anthony Cheung (@AWMCheung) September 13, 2017 The BoE's chief economist Andy Haldane hinted earlier in the summer, however, that he could be tempted to vote for a hike but a temporary easing of inflation persuaded him to remain with the doves. Inflation jumping higher than the central bank expected earlier this week to 2.9pc sent the pound soaring on the currency markets as hopes of a hike before the end of the year were reignited. This week's wage growth figures have killed off any chance of a hike this month, however, according to Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell. He said: "Wednesday’s worse than forecast average earnings index figure – which came in at just 2.1%, far lower than the 2.6% and 2.9% inflation readings in July and August respectively – likely puts the kibosh on any BoE rate hike this month. However, investors are still interested in hearing any hints as to what exactly it will take to push Mark Carney and co. to act. "Along those lines, whether anyone joins Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty on the hawkish side of the divide could be the biggest talking point coming out of the meeting, especially if that person if chief economist Andy Haldane." 8:36AM Agenda: Bank of England decision under scrutiny by the markets Mark Carney and the MPC are expected to vote for no change in monetary policy The devil will be in the detail at the Bank of England's latest policy decision due at noon today with the markets expecting no change to the central bank's monetary policy. Sterling could still be in for a bumpy ride, however, as traders scrutinise how many dissidents voted for a rate hike at the BoE. Data showing earlier this week that rising inflation is tightening the squeeze on UK households has cranked up the pressure on BoE rate-setters and that could be enough to persuade chief economist Andy Haldane to jump ship to the hawks.  US CPI will be worth keeping an eye on this afternoon as investors stateside fret over their own rate hike worries. Ahead of a packed day of macro releases, the pound is steady on the forex markets, nudging up to $1.3216 against the dollar. Stock mkt rally fizzles out after disappointing data from China & N Korea threatened Japan w/nuclear weapons. Bond ylds rise ahead of US CPI pic.twitter.com/iAjrcJtsJD— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 14, 2017 Disappointing Chinese production data means the mining stocks are weighing heavily on a flat FTSE  100 this morning. Retailer Next has soared 9pc after "modestly upgrading" its sales and profit guidance for the full year. Its chief executtive Lord Simon Wolfson said that the bellwether store's prospects "seem to be somewhat less challenging than they did six months ago".  Interim results: Gresham House, WM Morrison Supermarkets, Corero Network Security, Next, Ophir Energy, Property Franchise Group, GVC Holdings, Regional REIT AGM: Columbus Energy Resources, Falcon Oil & Gas, JPMorgan Brazil Inv Trust, Miton UK Microcap Trust, Worldwide Healthcare Trust, Colefax Group, Mobeus Income & Growth 2, Datatec, Xafinity, Abzena, Arian Silver Corporation Full-year results: Ricardo Trading statement: Booker Group, Safestore Holdings Economics: Retail Sales m/m (UK), Official Bank Rate (UK), MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes (UK), MPC Official Bank Rate Votes (UK), Asset Purchase Facility (UK), Monetary Policy Summary (UK),  Unemployment Claims (US), CPI m/m (US)

13 сентября, 14:51

Gap between rising prices and pay widens as wage growth figures disappoint; unemployment drops to 4.3pc

Wage growth remains steady at 2.1pc; disappointing figures pull pound back down to flat territory against the dollar Unemployment nudges down to 4.3pc, its lowest rate since 1975 FTSE 100 lurches into the red; global relief rally on stock markets stutters Miners weigh heavily on blue-chip index early on; housebuilder Galliford Try edges up after posting profits at the higher end of estimates 4:20PM US markets lose steam after jumping to record closes Apple and energy shares are engaging in a tug of war in the US After jumping to record all-time closes yesterday, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 have lost their steam slightly over in the US this afternoon. Both indices are in flat territory with the tug of war between Apple's 1.2pc retreat and energy stocks buoyed by stronger prices resulting in a flat finish. Buyers are running out of steam, according to CMC Markets analyst David Madden. He commented: "Stock markets in Europe are experiencing low volatility as the rally that we saw at the start of the week has lost momentum. "The bullish sentiment on the back of Hurricane Irma not being as severe as predicted, and no new tensions in relation to North Korea, has been replaced with a lacklustre attitude. You could say traders are pausing for breath, after the positive run." 3:52PM Blackpool Airport returns to public ownership after 13 years as Balfour Beatty sells stake Simon Blackburn, leader of Blackpool Council, said today’s sale would protect the 30 people currently employed by the airport Balfour Beatty has agreed to sell its majority stake in Blackpool Airport to the council, as the local authority looks to protect the future of the site. Construction company Balfour agreed the deal to sell 95pc of the airport for £4.25m, saying that it “further simplifies the portfolio, in line with the group's strategy”. Blackpool Council had originally owned the airport until 2004, when it sold the stake to a consortium led by City Hopper Airports and Mar Properties for £13m. The council retained the remaining 5pc, while the rest was sold to Balfour Beatty in 2008. However, falling passenger numbers and a legal dispute with operator Jet2 over the opening hours of the airport led to the site falling into administration in 2014. Read Rhiannon Bury's full report here 3:25PM Jobs growth accelerates but pay disappoints in interest rate dilemma for Carney  Unemployment tumbled to a new 42-year low in July, with more Britons than ever before in work. Private and public hiring picked up in the three months to July with employment rising by 181,364, the fastest pace of jobs growth since 2015. More than 31.2m people are now in work, while joblessness dropped to 1.46m, or 4.3pc - a low not seen since mid-1975. Employers appear keen to keep on hiring as the Office for National Statistics found 774,000 vacancies in August, a modest rise on the month. The number of public sector workers also rose for the first time in a year to 5.44m. Read Tim Wallace's full report here 2:58PM Galliford Try avoids large infrastructure projects as charge on legacy contracts hits profits   Peter Truscott, Galliford's chief executive, said that the company was remaining "cautious" about the impact of political uncertainty and the outlook for the macro economy The developer and construction company Galliford Try has said it will no longer bid for large fixed-price infrastructure contracts after its profits were hit by a charge on legacy contracts.  Pre-tax profits fell nearly 60pc to £59m due to the £98m charge it announced in May, relating to problem legacy contracts for the the Queensferry Crossing and part of a road in Aberdeen. But the company posted a 7pc rise in revenues to £2.7bn in the 12 months to June 30, and a 9pc increase in pre-tax profits excluding exceptional items including the charge. Galliford added that the amount set aside was unchanged and it was making "good progress" on its target to increase profits by 60pc by 2021. Its housebuilding arm, Linden Homes, and the regeneration division both reported stronger results, with operating profits up 16pc and 27pc respectively, but the construction side suffered, with margins on its underlying business squeezed to virtually nothing.  Read Isabelle Fraser's full report here Galliford Try 2:40PM Pound and dollar await crucial Thursday Weak inflation is holding back interest rates rises in the US Sterling has dipped into the red against the dollar in the last half an hour but today's movements could be small fry compared to a big day for the two currencies tomorrow. While sterling has the Bank of England's Super Thursday to contend with, the US's own inflation and interest rate hike worries will be the focal point for traders stateside. Persistently sluggish inflation in the US has dampened hike hopes but a pick-up could reignite expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates for a third time in the cycle before the end of the year. Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, said this on tomorrow's US figures: "Thursday’s CPI report is a big deal, especially when considering how concerns over stubbornly low inflation rates remain one of the key culprits weighing heavily on US rate hike expectations. "Price action suggests that dollar bears still remain in control, as investors become increasingly sceptical over the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates again before the end of the year. A soft inflation figure on Thursday that falls below market estimates is likely to dent the prospect of higher US rates, consequently punishing the vulnerable dollar further." 2:01PM Brent crude rallies close to $55 per barrel on upgraded demand forecast Oil stocks have been boosted by the IEA's upgraded forecast Oil demand will pick-up faster than expected this year, the International Energy Agency has forecast today, boosting the price of Brent crude to close to $55 per barrel. The IEA said that the market is beginning to rebalance as oil demand grows and production among OPEC members begins to fall. Brent crude jumped 0.8pc to its highest level since late May after the report bumped up its demand growth forecast by 1.6m barrels per day. Oil stocks have lagged behind crude’s rally in recent months but today the two oil giants on the FTSE 100, BP and Shell, have advanced 0.5pc and 0.6pc, respectively. 1:27PM UK funds back DNA data miner that can diagnose disease Sophia Genetics holds a database of 125,000 human genomes A biotech offering artificial intelligence that can diagnose diseases by mining hundreds of thousands of patients’ DNA data has completed a $30m (£22.6m) fundraising, backed by names including UK venture capital giant Balderton Capital. Sophia Genetics said it would use the cash to expand its network of hospital tie-ups, which already stands at 330 hospitals in 53 countries, including nine in the UK. The push will be focused on expansion outside Europe. It will also help fund a move into cancer diagnostics, with the latest therapies from drugmakers increasingly being tailored to suit a patient’s genetic profile. Swiss-based Sophia Genetics has already analysed the genomic profiles of over 125,000 patients, providing a database that aids doctors in diagnosing a range of conditions from cystic fibrosis and hereditary heart problems. Read Iain Withers' full report here 1:02PM Halfords names Dixons Carphone software boss as new chief executive Halfords said summer sales had been boosted by a rise in the number of Brits choosing to vacation closer to home Halfords has appointed the boss of Dixons Carphone’s software business as it new chief executive. Graham Stapleton has been hired to replace Jill McDonald, who is taking the reigns at Marks & Spencer’s clothing, home and beauty business next month. Mr Stapleton, who joins the company in January, has previously served as chief executive of Dixons Carphone’s Connect World Services division. Prior to that, he was chief executive of Carphone Warehouse UK & Ireland. Earlier in his career he held senior positions at Kingfisher and Marks & Spencer. Read Sam Dean's full report here 12:48PM Lunchtime update: Squeeze on households confirmed by stagnant wage growth The gap between inflation and wage growth has continued to widen The squeeze on UK households got a little tighter today as the ONS confirmed that wage growth lags far behind rising inflation. Unemployment dropped to its lowest level in 42 years but the tighter labour market failed to translate to earnings with wage growth stagnating at 2.1pc. The fall has knocked hawkish hopes of an earlier-than-expected interest rate rise at the Bank of England and the pound has pared its early gains on the currency markets. Sterling remains at a one-year high against the dollar, however, trading at $1.3274. The FTSE 100's losses have eased but it is still stuck in the red, bucking the trend on markets. Miners weighed heavily on the blue-chip index as copper slipped to a three-week low while Tesco is the sharpest faller on a broker downgrade. Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell commented on this morning's action: "While sterling’s slide took the edge off the FTSE’s losses it couldn’t fully lift it out of the red. Instead the index is still down 30 or so points, weighed down by its mining stocks. As for the Eurozone, the euro’s bounce against the pound meant there was little for the DAX and CAC to enjoy, instead both indices sitting flat as the morning went on.   "Looking to this afternoon and for now the Dow Jones seems to have stalled at 22100. The index is set to start the US session flat at that level, with little on the agenda – bar the latest PPI reading – to help it on its way to a fresh all-time high." 12:26PM Slow wage growth a global problem A reminder that some pay squeezes are more equal than others... pic.twitter.com/lc4xAEEU6V— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 13, 2017 Today's wage growth figures are proving a bit of a head scratcher for economists. The normal connection between a tight labour market and wage growth just hasn't been feeding through into the figures recently. Real wage growth has fallen in almost all sectors with only a handful, including finance and arts, enjoying a rise.  Looking at the employment figures by region, Northern Ireland lags behind with just 68.2pc of its population in work compared to 79.6pc in the South East.   Investec economist Philip Shaw points out that slow wage growth is not just a UK problem: "Both basic economic theory and common sense suggest that pay growth is likely to be bid up as labour becomes scarcer and shortages become more commonplace. "However, soft wage growth is not just a feature of the UK economy, but an international phenomenon, with the authorities in the US, the euro area and Japan attempting to make sense of similar developments, despite tight, or at least tightening labour markets there." Ashurst employment partner Crowley Woodford believes that confidence is key to sluggish wage growth: "There is still a lack of confidence amongst employers with regards to the longer term future whilst workers still feel insecure in their jobs. This dampens the pressure on employers to offer higher pay and employee representative bodies to demand it." 11:57AM Apple's iPhone X unveiling pulls down European suppliers The iPhone X will be released in November and cost £999 Unless you've been living under the rock or taken a vow against capitalism, you may have noticed that Apple unveiled its new iPhone X yesterday and the markets are of course not immune to the latest release from the world's largest listed company. Disappointment that the iPhone X will not hit stores until November dragged down Apple shares 0.4pc last night in the US with the new £999 phone available to buy on November 3, a considerable delay compared to previous releases. Given that Apple left its fourth quarter guidance in tact, it suggests that the tech giant expects to compensate for the delay with sales of its new iPhone 8, which will be released later this month. Apple's share price knock has had a read across to its suppliers with British semiconductor firm IQE falling nearly 6pc while in Europe suppliers AMS and Dialog have both retreated. Imagination Tech shares, which have plummeted since Apple announced that it would soon stop using the company's chips, have fallen 4.5pc. 11:28AM Markets update: easyJet jumps on new long-haul booking service EasyJet has moved into long-haul through its 'Worldwide by easyJet' service All that wage growth excitement has led me to neglect the big movers in London this morning so let's take a quick look at the laggards and leaders. On the FTSE 100, easyJet has been propelled to the top of the leaderboard after making the move into long-haul through a new service that allows passengers to book connecting flights on partner airlines. At the other end, Tesco has dropped 1.9pc on a broker downgrade from Exane BNP Paribas while mining stocks are struggling as the price of copper falls to a three-week low. On the mid-cap FTSE 250, homeware store Dunelm has popped over 7pc after it told shareholders of a strong start to its financial year while wholesale retailer Booker has retreated 2.5pc following a broker downgrade. 10:58AM Dunelm sales drop as it warns of difficult trading climate in the UK Dunelm like-for-like sales were down last year Homewares retailer Dunelm has warned that it expects trading conditions to remain difficult in the UK as it reported a drop in like-for-like sales. In its full-year results, Dunelm said like-for-like sales in its stores were down 2.4pc in the year to the start of July. Overall like-for-like sales were down 0.5pc, and pre-tax profits fell to £92.4m from £128.9m in the previous year. The decrease came despite an 8.5pc jump in total revenues, from £881m to £956m.   The FTSE 250 company said the sales drop in its stores was the result of lower footfall as a result of “unusually warm weather”. Shares jumped 40p to 650.5p, a 6.6pc increase, following the update. Read Sam Dean's full report here Dunelm 10:48AM Job figures reaction: link between wages and unemployment weakening Minister for Employment Damian Hinds said today's figures show employers investing Britain The link between wages and unemployment is weakening, according to Deloitte's chief economist Ian Stewart. He said: "Job creation is a huge UK success story. Despite Brexit uncertainties and slower growth, the UK continues to generate ever lower unemployment and ever more jobs.   " "But the recession, and its aftermath, has weakened the link between unemployment and wages. In the past this degree of tightness in the jobs market would be pushing wages higher. Instead earnings growth has flat lined in the last couple of years." Here's the reaction of the Minister for Employment Damian Hinds to today's job figures: "The strength of the economy is helping people of all ages find work, from someone starting their first job after leaving education, to those who might be starting a new career later in life. "Britain’s employment success is largely about a growth in full-time and permanent work, as employers invest in Britain and offer quality job opportunities that put more money into people’s pockets. "But there is more to do, and we will continue to build on our achievements through our employment programmes and the work of Jobcentre Plus." Unfortunately that extra money in people pockets is being pinched by high inflation. Real (excl. bonuses) pay fell -0.4%y/y in July using CPIH. If you prefer CPI, then the fall was -0.7%y/y. Total pay 3.2% below 2008 peak pic.twitter.com/h6IAEqlKA4— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 13, 2017 10:34AM Job figures reaction: high inflation and weak wage growth muddies BoE decision UK real wages down 0.5% YoY in July, set to decline faster in August after y'days 2.9% CPI. Continued strong employment growth: +181,000 QoQ pic.twitter.com/068T4vKKKd— Simon French (@shjfrench) September 13, 2017 Av earnings miss changes the conversation for the Bank of England after inflation was higher than exp. Real wages negative and worsening.— Richard Perry (@HantecRich) September 13, 2017 The Bank of England is stuck between a rock and a hard place ahead of tomorrow's monetary policy meeting after wage growth failed to keep up with inflation. While high inflation boosts hopes that the central bank will soon take a hawkish turn, today's poor wage growth figures in a tight labour market has added another layer of uncertainty.  Ranko Berich, head of market analysis at Monex Europe, believes today's figures have put the central bank in an uneviable position: "Looking at the across the board inflation increase reported in August and low unemployment rate, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the BoE’s policy decision will be a no brainer in favour of higher rates at some stage in the next 12 months. But today’s miss on average earnings highlights the fact that this is just not the case: wage growth remains sluggish, and real wages are in deep contraction in the UK. "The BoE is in an unenviable position heading into tomorrow’s MPC meeting, given that inflation is above target but the latest wage and investment data show that the economy is hardly going through a demand driven boom that needs an immediate monetary response." Wage growth failing to keep pace with inflation has muddied the decision at the Bank of England, according to ETX Capital analyst Neil Wilson. He explained:  "At the same time inflation is exchange rate rather than demand driven and therefore expected to retreat soon enough. Hopes of a hike by year-end may well be dashed on the rocks of economic uncertainty. "In the short-term, cable may find it hard to hold onto gains if there is no additional indications from the Bank that it is prepared to hike this year. Today’s wage growth data would appear to temper any hawkish inclination, proving bearish for sterling in the near-term." 10:06AM Wage growth reaction: today's disappointing figures pull down early interest rate hike hopes Wage growth has weakened this year despite the decline in job market slack, according to Pantheon Macro Has today's disappointing wage growth wounded hopes of an early interest rate hike? The chance of an early rate rise have been dealt a blow this morning, according to Jake Trask, FX Research Director at OFX. He said: "Before this morning’s data, there had been some speculation that the Bank of England’s Chief Economist would switch tack tomorrow, and address above-target inflation by voting for a rate hike. "But this morning’s sluggish reading will likely see him sit on his hands a while longer, to avoid adding pressure to consumers already facing rising prices." Pantheon Macro UK economist Samuel Tombs agrees that today's job figures weaken the argument of monetary policy hawks. He explained: "The latest labour market data are, on balance, a setback for the hawks on the MPC arguing for higher interest rates. Admittedly, employment rose by 181K, or 0.6%, in the three months to July, the fastest growth since the end of 2015. "But the three-month average number of job vacancies in August was 0.9% lower than in the previous three months, pointing to a slowdown in employment growth ahead." 9:57AM Gap between wages and inflation widens UK economy in a bad place. Rising inflation, wages going nowhere and a BoE that cannot raise interest rates. !!?? stuck— Mark Shapland (@spencershapland) September 13, 2017 UK:CPI at highest level since 2013, Unemployment is at 42yr low but real wages still negative.Does Haldane bite the hawkish bullet tomorrow?— Joumanna Bercetche (@CNBCJou) September 13, 2017 Today's wage growth figures will reignite concerns that the tightening labour market is still failing to feed through to wage growth. Wage growth was expected to nudge up to 2.2pc but the figures remained steady at 2.1pc. The figures mean that the gap between wages and inflation, which rose to 2.9pc yesterday, has widened even further to tighten the squeeze on UK households. London Capital Group analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya believes the pound's retreat following today's data could be short-lived, however. She added: "The widening price-wage inflation gap is becoming a serious headache for the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers as lower wages require a dovish monetary policy, but only as long as the inflation allows.  "Despite the slow improvement in wages and street protests from several sector workers, the rising inflationary pressures could encourage some Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote in favour of an interest rate hike in the coming months." 9:44AM Job figures key takeaways Wage growth now lags far behind inflation Wage growth remains steady at 2.1pc, lower than expectations. The disappointing figures widen the gap between pay and rising prices. Unemployment nudges down to 4.3pc, its lowest rate since 1975. 32.14m people were in work in the three months to July, 181,000 more than the period between February to April. Pound retreats back to flat territory on the currency markets following sluggish wage growth data. 9:33AM Wage growth disappoints; unemployment nudges down to 4.3pc Wage growth disappoints, remaining steady at 2.1pc to widen the gap between rising prices and pay. Unemployment nudges down to 4.3pc, a 0.1 percentage point drop. Pound slips back towards flat territory against dollar, trading 0.1pc higher at $1.3280. 9:20AM Pound eases off morning highs; still firmly in positive territory against most major currencies The pound has jumped 0.3pc higher against the dollar this morning The pound's ascent on the currency markets has eased off a little as we approach the job figures at the bottom of the hour with sterling flirting with flat territory against the euro. The FTSE 100 is continuing to suffer at the expense of the stronger pound, according to Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell. He said: "With the UK jobs report on the way the FTSE continued to suffer in the shadow of sterling’s September rise.   The FTSE plunged more than 50 points after the bell, swiftly falling to a 7350-grazing near one week low. The miners have all moved lower, while BP and Shell are both down half a percent. "However, the main reason for the UK index’s decline was the pound’s latest climb. Though only up 0.2%, that takes cable to a fresh, $1.33-plus one year peak; it has also risen 0.1% against the euro, cementing a 6 week high." 9:05AM Job figures preview: what the experts say 4.The (rough) historical relationship between wage growth & unemployment may still be there. Sort of. Light at the end of the pay squeeze? pic.twitter.com/iDDXr8rmIi— Rupert Seggins (@Rupert_Seggins) September 13, 2017 Let's have a quick round-up of what the experts are saying ahead of today's job figures. CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson believes strong figures today will lift interest rate hike hopes. He said: "A solid wages number could shift the calculus on the MPC further towards a rate rise with Chief economist Andrew Haldane likely to join the other two hawks Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty in pushing for a rate rise, given recent comments he made during the summer, when inflation ticked up to the same level it is now. "He suggested that “beginning the process of withdrawing some of the incremental stimulus provided last August would be prudent moving into the second part of the year”, though the caveat was that the data supported such a move."   He added that it would have been a "delicious irony" if inflation had pushed past 3pc and Bank of England governor Mark Carney had been forced to write a letter to chancellor Philip Hammond to explain why the figures had so badly missed the central bank's 2pc target. Many blame Mr Carney and co's emergency monetary policy change after the EU referendum for knocking down the value of the pound and pushing up inflation. Disappointing wage figures will only complicate matters at the central bank, according to Accendo Markets head of research Mike Van Dulken. He commented: "Following yesterday’s much hotter than expected inflation prints, the Bank of England will be hoping for a reciprocal surprise from wages too. "A disappointment, however, will add yet another level of complexity to their current interest rate quandary, with policymakers hesitant to increase rates which consumers  are subject to an extended pinch on their pockets." For all the millenials in the queue to buy a £1,000 #iPhoneX don't forget you were moaning about student debt, low wages and rent yesterday.— Steve Sedgwick (@steve_sedgwick) September 12, 2017 8:48AM Job figures preview: what to expect Unemployment is expected to remain at a 42-year low Yesterday's jump in inflation reignited hawkish hopes of an interest rate hike before the end of the year, sending the pound soaring on currency markets. There are concerns at the dovish end of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, however, that the UK economy is too fragile to withstand a rate rise. Could today's figures be enough to persuade wavering MPC members, such as chief economist Andy Haldane, to back a hike? What to expect Wage growth is expected to nudge up to 2.2pc in the three months to July, a 0.1 percentage point rise on last month's figures and lagging far behind inflation. Meanwhile, unemployment will remain unchanged at 4.4pc, a 42-year low, according to economists. 8:27AM Agenda: Pound pushes past $1.33 against dollar ahead of wage growth data Housebuilder Galliford Try posted profits at the upper end of estimates Lagging wage growth is the focal point for the markets this morning with the ONS' figures expected to show the gap between pay and rising prices continuing to widen. Average earnings growth will nudge up to 2.2pc, according to the consensus of economists, cranking up the pressure on households and marking another knock-back for real wages. The pound this morning has built on yesterday's post-inflation data gains against the dollar, rising 0.4pc at $1.3326, a one-year high.  Asia stocks extending gains as reflation trade takes hold. Global bond yields rebounded w/upside inflation surprises from CN, India, UK, SWE pic.twitter.com/RsCthL55GA— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 13, 2017 The FTSE 100 under pressure from the buoyant pound missed out on the relief rally pulling up equities globally yesterday. This morning it has lurched into the red while European stocks' rally has stuttered with the CAC 40 in flat territory and the DAX nudging down. Galliford Try's full-year results are the highlight on a slightly lighter corporate calendar. The housebuilder, which was hit by a £98m provision to cover legacy contract costs earlier this year, posted profits at the upper end of estimates, pushing its shares 1.3pc higher earlier on. Interim results: Alliance Pharma, Ten Entertainment Group, Just Group, Soco International, Gaming Realms, Ingenta, Epwin Group, SQS Software Quality Systems AG, Advanced Medical Solutions Group, Columbus Energy Resources, MyCelx Technologies Corporation Full-year results: Wilmington, Dunelm Group, Town Centre Securities, Galliford Try, Haynes Publishing Group AGM: Marechale Capital, Versarien, Tricorn Group, Argo Group, Games Workshop Group, Intercede Group, Hardy Oil & Gas Economics: Unemployment Rate (UK), Claimant Count Change (UK), Average Earnings Index 3m/y (UK), PPI m/m (US), Industrial Production m/m (EU)Employment Change q/q (EU)

31 августа, 02:01

Slowdown in consumer credit growth spells trouble for UK economy | Phillip Inman

With investment in the doldrums and exports ailing, the shopper is the linchpin stopping the economy from stallingIt is too early to tell whether the slowdown in UK consumer credit growth in July was the result of waning confidence among the nation’s shoppers or the restraints placed on banks by the regulator.Either way it spells trouble for an economy dependent on consumer spending to drive GDP growth. With business investment in the doldrums and exports unable to make much headway despite the low pound, the consumer is the linchpin preventing the economy stalling altogether. Continue reading...

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30 августа, 14:26

Asos poised to overtake M&S in 'seminal moment' for UK fashion

Website’s market valuation is just £100m below its older rival and City analysts say shift in retail power is inevitable Marks & Spencer is poised to lose its crown in the British fashion industry to its younger online rival Asos, in what is being described as a seminal moment for UK retail.In the latest sign of traditional corporate powerhouses being overtaken by newer technology-focused firms, the market value of 17-year-old Asos is just shy of £100m below that of the 113-year-old mainstay of the UK high street. M&S has a market value of £5.08bn, compared with Asos’s £4.98bn. Continue reading...

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26 июня, 13:35

'It’s up to us': why business needs to take a stand on #palmoil

Consumers have long been encouraged to shop with sustainability in mind. But when it comes to palm oil, the power to effect industry-wide change is in the hands of businessFor many ethical consumers, palm oil is a dirty word. Its association with deforestation, the destruction of local communities and forced labour – particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia – makes buying a jar of peanut butter no easy task. Some choose to look for assurances on the label that the palm oil inside has been ethically sourced, while others simply try to avoid buying products made using the commodity. Palm oil is in more than half of all packaged goods, including makeup, cleaning products and numerous household-favourite foods. And its derivatives are often hidden on product labels under obscure names, such as “ethyl palmitate”. But even if you buy palm oil certified as sustainable, there are criticisms that the current industry standards still allow for rainforest destruction and poor practices. Continue reading...

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23 июня, 20:09

Tattooing avocados helps keep up supply of smash hit

Appetite for creamy green fruit shows no sign of abating as growers and retailers struggle to keep up with demandWe’ve smashed them, scooped them, sliced them and blended them. Now we have started tattooing avocados as retailers battle to feed the UK’s growing obsession with the creamy green fruit.Fruit supplier Mack, based in Kent, handles 1.3m avocados a week for a number of British retailers, and is testing a new Spanish-developed machine for labelling fruit destined for Marks & Spencer’s shelves. Continue reading...

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23 июня, 09:38

Hinkley Point C: watchdog confirms fears of political vanity project | Nils Pratley

NAO report condemns ‘risky and expensive’ nuclear project that went ahead despite the economic case crumblingThe National Audit Office does not use excitable phrases like “utter shambles.” But the spending watchdog’s verdict on Hinkley Point C, the nuclear power plant in Somerset that is supposedly inevitable, amounts to the same thing. The government “has locked consumers into a risky and expensive project with uncertain strategic and economic benefits”.The 80-page report confirms one’s worst fears about how ministers fell in love with Hinkley. First, they wedded themselves to an inflexible financial model. Then they agreed commercial terms with developer EDF in 2013, when energy prices were sky-high, and ploughed on regardless when the economic case for Hinkley started to crumble. Continue reading...

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23 июня, 03:33

British retailer says laser-etched avocados will cut packaging.

British retailer Marks & Spencer has started selling avocados marked by laser rather than stickers, in a bid to cut packaging waste and improve efficiency. Simon Thompson reports. Subscribe: http://smarturl.it/reuterssubscribe More updates and breaking news: http://smarturl.it/BreakingNews Reuters tells the world's stories like no one else. As the largest international multimedia news provider, Reuters provides coverage around the globe and across topics including business, financial, national, and international news. For over 160 years, Reuters has maintained its reputation for speed, accuracy, and impact while providing exclusives, incisive commentary and forward-looking analysis. http://reuters.com/ https://www.facebook.com/Reuters https://plus.google.com/u/0/s/reuters https://twitter.com/Reuters

20 июня, 09:40

Фондовые индексы Европы выросли в понедельник

Европейские фондовые индексы выросли в понедельник, французский индикатор показал максимальный скачок более чем за месяц на результатах парламентских выборов в стране.

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15 июня, 19:00

Wine: Tasmania has more in common with Burgundy than with the Barossa

Tasmanian wine can be hard to track down, but it’s well worth the effortThe frustrating thing about this column is that many of the more interesting wines I come across aren’t very easy to track down. Tasmania is a case in point. This unique region of Australia is far cooler than anywhere else on the continent, and it has more in common with Champagne and Burgundy than with the Barossa Valley. Go there, and you’ll come across some stunning wines (as well as a beautiful, wild and almost deserted island). As befits a cool wine region, about half Tasmania’s production is sparkling, and there’s a crisp, lean minerality to the wines that makes them a delicious match with seafood, especially oysters. Marks & Spencer has decided in its wisdom to de-list the medal-winning Josef Chromy (£22; 12% abv), though if you’re lucky, you may still find the odd bottle in store, but it does have the bright, citrussy Pure South Sauvignon Blanc 2015 and the delicate, pretty Pure South Pinot Noir 2015 (in store only), both on offer at £12 and 13.5% abv. Continue reading...

13 июня, 15:24

H&M, Zara and Marks & Spencer linked to polluting viscose factories in Asia

Major fashion brands are sourcing viscose from factories in China, Indonesia and India which are polluting and damaging health, according to new reportMajor fashion brands have been linked to viscose produced in polluting factories, according to a new report by the Changing Markets Foundation.Viscose, touted as a sustainable alternative to cotton or polyester, is often used as a cheaper and more durable alternative to silk, commonly in skirts and dresses. Experts say it is just as likely to be found in a £10 t-shirt as a £2,000 suit. Continue reading...

09 июня, 08:20

Pound claws back some losses after hung parliament spooks the City – as it happened

Sterling has fallen on the foreign exchanges after a night of sensational election dramaPound inches up on possible Tory-DUP dealCity sees instability after May’s election gamble backfiresPound plunged to $1.265 from $1.295 on ThursdaySterling hit seven-month low against the euroIntroduction: Pound slides after election shockHow the night unfolded in the CityElection results live: Theresa May under fire 5.06pm BST The pound initially fell 2.5% against the dollar after the shock election result, but had recovered some ground by the time London markets closed. It was still down 1.6% at $1.2740 but was off its eight week lows against the US currency. Even so the decline gave some support to the FTSE 100 and its overseas earners, while news that Theresa May was forming a government - even if with the help of the DUP - provided some support for shares and the pound. European and US markets shrugged off the UK result, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new peak as investors preferred to concentrate on the latest twists in the Donald Trump saga.Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, said:Although the pound fell, the FTSE 100 as well as other global indices opened higher on election result day. Traditional havens like gold and the Japanese yen dropped as global markets shook off the result as a UK-only affair. Related: Election 2017: May postpones reshuffle and will 'reflect' on why Tories lost seats – live 3.29pm BST The ratings agency also warns another election could be on the horizon (!):Prime Minister Theresa May will seek to form a government with support from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, known as the DUP, after her governing Conservative Party fell short of a parliamentary majority. While this would avoid a prolonged period of coalition talks, the terms of the agreement are unclear and another election in the near term is possible. Continue reading...

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07 июня, 18:37

No flip-flopping: 10 of the best city sandals – in pictures

From tan to tassels, here’s our pick of the best sturdy but stylish summer shoes to keep you cool in the concrete jungle Continue reading...

06 июня, 15:51

Renault предлагает конкурента Tesla Powerwall с ранее использовавшимися батареями

После анонса компанией Tesla аккумуляторных блоков Powerwall для использования в домашних хозяйствах многие автопроизводители, включая Mercedes-Benz, Nissan и BMW, последовали её примеру, начав предлагать аккумуляторные батареи, применяемые в своих электромобилях, для хранения энергии в жилых помещениях. Одним из последних крупных автопроизводителей, заинтересовавшихся этим направлением, стала французская корпорация Renault. Вместе с поставщиками систем хранения энергии Powervault и Marks & Spencer (M&S) корпорация запустила в Великобритании пилотный проект по использованию бывших в употреблении аккумуляторных батарей электрических автомобилей в системах хранения энергии домашних хозяйств.

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06 июня, 08:00

Anna Meredith: the avant-pop composer bringing meaning to lift music

Meredith’s musical makeover of the Arndale centre elevators is just one of Manchester international festival’s site-specific compositionsFresh from the success of her critically lauded album, Varmints (2016), Scottish composer Anna Meredith embarks on an immersive urban performance project as part of this year’s Manchester international festival.In Music for a Busy City, you and five other composers have written works that will be played in situ at different places around Manchester. Where’s your spot?It’s a windowless pathway that runs from one side of the [Arndale] shopping centre to the other and in the middle has entrances to Marks & Spencer and Selfridges opposite each other, with lifts. Continue reading...

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26 мая, 19:43

Manchester will recover, but some victims will not. Don't forget them

The message we hear is of cleaning up, carrying on, rebuilding – but for a few people life will never return to normalIt was an unusually beautiful day in Manchester, not a cloud in a deep blue sky, when that huge IRA bomb blasted the heart of the city 21 years ago; and this week when terror struck it turned out eerily sunny again. But as the devastating news of so many deaths and injuries hit on Tuesday, and people made their way quietly along Cross Street to the evening vigil held in Albert Square, the differences from what happened last time were dreadfully clear.Back then, on a busy Saturday, 15 June 1996, the explosives in a truck parked outside Marks & Spencer wreaked astonishing damage to buildings, but there was a warning, and 75,000 people were evacuated. Although people suffered injuries, some of them serious, from the debris and glass that rained beyond the cordon, miraculously nobody was killed. The Mancunian pride and make-a-brew spirit that has been broadcast to the world this week could get on with a story which has become straightforward in the telling since: clean up, carry on, rebuild. Continue reading...

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24 мая, 16:40

Is M&S being radical enough as it slips out of fashion? | Nils Pratley

The retailer is to axe 10% of the space devoted to its struggling clothing and homewares – but the market is moving onMarks & Spencer’s share price has improved 10% since Archie Norman, lately of ITV and once of Asda, was named as the next chairman earlier this month. This show of faith in one non-executive is remarkable, but one can almost understand why it’s happened.After a decade of modernisation programmes under former chief executives Stuart Rose and Marc Bolland – and another five years in prospect under Steve Rowe – poor old M&S shareholders must be crying out for a proven outsider’s analysis of where it’s all leading, and how quickly. Since 2012, M&S has clocked up an astonishing £890m in “adjustments to reported profit”, of which the latest £437m is the biggest contributor. Needless to say, the adjustments have all been downwards. Continue reading...

24 мая, 13:21

Годовая прибыль Marks & Spencer превысила прогнозы аналитиков

Британский ритейлер Marks & Spencer Group (M&S) отчитался о превысившей прогнозы аналитиков годовой доналоговой прибыли благодаря успешным результатам подразделения пищевых продуктов, а также снижению издержек, компенсировавшим неудачи направления по продаже одежды. Так, по итогам фискального года с окончанием 1 апреля, чистая прибыль компании снизилась с 406,9 млн фунтов стерлингов годом ранее до 117,1 млн фунтов ($152,2 млн). При этом прибыль до налогообложения уменьшилась в отчетном периоде на 10,3% г/г до 613,8 млн фунтов стерлингов ($795,9 млн), однако превысила среднерыночные ожидания на уровне 596 млн фунтов. Выручка за рассматриваемый период увеличилась с 10,56 млрд фунтов до 10,62 млрд фунтов. При этом, в четвертом квартале сопоставимые продажи подразделения по продаже одежды и товаров для дома снизились на 5,9%, тогда как аналитики в среднем ожидали снижения лишь на 3,7%.

24 мая, 11:56

Годовая прибыль Marks & Spencer превысила прогнозы аналитиков

Британский ритейлер Marks & Spencer Group (M&S) отчитался о превысившей прогнозы аналитиков годовой доналоговой прибыли благодаря успешным результатам подразделения пищевых продуктов, а также снижению издержек, компенсировавшим неудачи направления по продаже одежды. Так, по итогам фискального года с окончанием 1 апреля, чистая прибыль компании снизилась с 406,9 млн фунтов стерлингов годом ранее до 117,1 млн фунтов ($152,2 млн). При этом прибыль до налогообложения уменьшилась в отчетном периоде на 10,3% г/г до 613,8 млн фунтов стерлингов ($795,9 млн), однако превысила среднерыночные ожидания на уровне 596 млн фунтов. Выручка за рассматриваемый период увеличилась с 10,56 млрд фунтов до 10,62 млрд фунтов. При этом, в четвертом квартале сопоставимые продажи подразделения по продаже одежды и товаров для дома снизились на 5,9%, тогда как аналитики в среднем ожидали снижения лишь на 3,7%.

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24 мая, 10:12

Marks & Spencer falls 1.6% after earnings report

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