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07 января, 03:11

Weekend Roundup: America’s Crisis Of Social Intelligence

If the recent U.S. presidential election campaign was about defining American reality, little has been decided. The ongoing inability to arrive at a shared worldview or even to agree on basic facts, abetted by a media that thrives on adversity to monetize attention, is deadly for the discourse in any democracy. This crisis of social intelligence in which the perception of reality is unmoored from objective observation is even more consequential than the highly damaging quarrel between the official U.S. intelligence agencies and President-elect Donald Trump over Russian influence meddling. But the two are linked. None of the intelligence professionals I know would ever consider themselves infallible. Yet they do strive mightily to establish the facts and resist partisan pressures to slant their findings. Professional intelligence analysis seeks to root out false signals, disinformation, unfounded rumor and subjective opinion. It is, in effect, the opposite of peer-driven social media which now has the most influence over American hearts and minds including, apparently, over the incoming commander-in-chief. While the joint report on the Russian hacks released last week by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security was scored by some as less than conclusive, former NATO commander James Stavridis and cybersecurity expert Dave Weinstein believe it was highly effective. “Publicly laying this level of detail out sets a dramatic precedent that could serve a significant blow to Russia’s current and future cyberoperations in the U.S. and elsewhere,” they write. “The technical details of the report constitute an intelligence windfall for ordinary network defenders who have been starving for rich real-time threat information from the federal government to protect their systems against sophisticated actors.” A further report released Friday by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Russia aimed “to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency” and that “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.” Writing from Moscow, Maria Snegovaya reports that most commentators there have greeted President Barack Obama’s recently announced sanctions in response to Russian hacking with “mockery and derision.” Official Russia, she says, has offered the usual retort: deny then distort.  If identifying and shutting down hackers has become a key task of intelligence agencies in these cyber times, the new challenge for education is to provide young people with the tools of social intelligence so they can tell fact from fabrication on social media. Stanford professor Sam Wineburg lays out the steps educators need to take to help students discern what is fake news or not. “The tools we’ve invented are handling us,“ he says, “not the other way around.” Teacher Lynn Kelley tells her students they fall victim to fake news when they lack the critical distance to be aware of their own biases and assumptions or when they are unable to evaluate claims without the relevant historical knowledge. Natalie Jackson reports on a poll that says most Americans think tweets are not the way a president should communicate.  The scientific consensus on climate change is perhaps the most contested fact by the new powers to be in Washington. These stunning motion graphics compiled by James Warner illustrate the toll a warming climate took on the planet in 2016. Dominique Mosbergen reports that, indeed, 2016 was the hottest year on record.  Nicolas Berggruen and I suggest how the incoming U.S. administration can promote renewable energy while creating jobs and security for Americans by jointly investing with China and Mexico in the infrastructure of a “solar border” instead of a wall. Guy Standing argues that a universal basic income would be a bulwark against far-right populism because it provides a secure economic base in people’s lives. “The response to these darkening times,” he writes, “must be to devise and rally support for a new income distribution system.” In other global developments, yet another terror attack hit Istanbul on New Year’s Eve at a fashionable nightclub on the banks of the Bosphorus. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz reports that, despite the aims of the terrorists, the responses to the attack are serving to unite a divided country. Mercy Corps’ Michael Bowers looks ahead to the humanitarian crises that should garner more attention in 2017 – in Yemen, South Sudan and Lake Chad. Ali Rodriguez reports that the economic situation has become so dire in Venezuela that even talented artists committed to the opposition can’t afford to stay and are fleeing. Former Iranian National Security Council member Seyed Hossein Mousavian sees the potential for hope in the incoming U.S. administration. “While it might sound counterintuitive,” he writes, “Republican control of Congress and the presidency presents an opportunity for successful U.S.- Iran diplomacy. The U.S. government is now able to act in unison, enabling for novel approaches towards the region that may have previously been politically impossible.” In his piece, Mousavian also lists what he believes President-elect Donald Trump should know about Iran. One point is that America’s military presence in the Middle East has created instability there. Interestingly, while chaos gripping much of the Mideast is leading to disengagement by world powers, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden explore why China is actually looking to invest more in the region. In recent years, China was also always the poster child for the worst pollution in the world that came along with rapid growth. Now that China is trying to clean up its act, and India has joined the club of rapid growth, it is facing its own challenges. Bhargav Krishna writes from New Delhi that, “India’s under-funded public health system is straining to cope with the increasing burden of pollution-driven illnesses.” Writing from Hong Kong Wang Xiangwei reports that President Xi Jinping, recently donned “a core leader,” denounced resistance to his reforms by local officials at a Politburo meeting this week after which his comments were splashed across national media. Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei argues that, despite Brexit and the Trump election, globalization is not doomed; it is just shifting East with China in a leading position. Taking a comprehensive strategic view of world events, Zbigniew Brzezinski proposes that the only effective response to the present crisis of global power is trilateral cooperation among the U.S., China and Russia. He warns that, “The U.S. should not act towards China as if it were already an enemy; significantly, it should not favor India as America’s principal ally in Asia. This would almost guarantee a closer connection between China and Russia. Nothing is more dangerous to the U.S. than such a close connection.” Our Singularity series this week looks at the technological developments to watch in 2017 – artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, decentralized peer-to-peer networks, biosynthetic labs and autonomous vehicles. Finally, our latest column by the Future of Life Institute reminds us that, in many ways, 2016 was a year of hope with advances in AI and health as well as new moves to reduce the global number of nuclear weapons. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 января, 03:11

Weekend Roundup: America’s Crisis Of Social Intelligence

If the recent U.S. presidential election campaign was about defining American reality, little has been decided. The ongoing inability to arrive at a shared worldview or even to agree on basic facts, abetted by a media that thrives on adversity to monetize attention, is deadly for the discourse in any democracy. This crisis of social intelligence in which the perception of reality is unmoored from objective observation is even more consequential than the highly damaging quarrel between the official U.S. intelligence agencies and President-elect Donald Trump over Russian influence meddling. But the two are linked. None of the intelligence professionals I know would ever consider themselves infallible. Yet they do strive mightily to establish the facts and resist partisan pressures to slant their findings. Professional intelligence analysis seeks to root out false signals, disinformation, unfounded rumor and subjective opinion. It is, in effect, the opposite of peer-driven social media which now has the most influence over American hearts and minds including, apparently, over the incoming commander-in-chief. While the joint report on the Russian hacks released last week by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security was scored by some as less than conclusive, former NATO commander James Stavridis and cybersecurity expert Dave Weinstein believe it was highly effective. “Publicly laying this level of detail out sets a dramatic precedent that could serve a significant blow to Russia’s current and future cyberoperations in the U.S. and elsewhere,” they write. “The technical details of the report constitute an intelligence windfall for ordinary network defenders who have been starving for rich real-time threat information from the federal government to protect their systems against sophisticated actors.” A further report released Friday by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Russia aimed “to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency” and that “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.” Writing from Moscow, Maria Snegovaya reports that most commentators there have greeted President Barack Obama’s recently announced sanctions in response to Russian hacking with “mockery and derision.” Official Russia, she says, has offered the usual retort: deny then distort.  If identifying and shutting down hackers has become a key task of intelligence agencies in these cyber times, the new challenge for education is to provide young people with the tools of social intelligence so they can tell fact from fabrication on social media. Stanford professor Sam Wineburg lays out the steps educators need to take to help students discern what is fake news or not. “The tools we’ve invented are handling us,“ he says, “not the other way around.” Teacher Lynn Kelley tells her students they fall victim to fake news when they lack the critical distance to be aware of their own biases and assumptions or when they are unable to evaluate claims without the relevant historical knowledge. Natalie Jackson reports on a poll that says most American’s think tweets are not the way a president should communicate.  The scientific consensus on climate change is perhaps the most contested fact by the new powers to be in Washington. These stunning motion graphics compiled by James Warner illustrate the toll a warming climate took on the planet in 2016. Dominique Mosbergen reports that, indeed, 2016 was the hottest year on record.  Nicolas Berggruen and I suggest how the incoming U.S. administration can promote renewable energy while creating jobs and security for Americans by jointly investing with China and Mexico in the infrastructure of a “solar border” instead of a wall. Guy Standing argues that a universal basic income would be a bulwark against far-right populism because it provides a secure economic base in people’s lives. “The response to these darkening times,” he writes, “must be to devise and rally support for a new income distribution system.” In other global developments, yet another terror attack hit Istanbul on New Year’s Eve at a fashionable nightclub on the banks of the Bosphorus. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz reports that, despite the aims of the terrorists, the responses to the attack are serving to unite a divided country. Mercy Corps’ Michael Bowers looks ahead to the humanitarian crises that should garner more attention in 2017 – in Yemen, South Sudan and Lake Chad. Ali Rodriguez reports that the economic situation has become so dire in Venezuela that even talented artists committed to the opposition can’t afford to stay and are fleeing. Former Iranian National Security Council member Seyed Hossein Mousavian sees the potential for hope in the incoming U.S. administration. “While it might sound counterintuitive,” he writes, “Republican control of Congress and the presidency presents an opportunity for successful U.S.- Iran diplomacy. The U.S. government is now able to act in unison, enabling for novel approaches towards the region that may have previously been politically impossible.” In his piece, Mousavian also lists what he believes President-elect Donald Trump should know about Iran. One point is that America’s military presence in the Middle East has created instability there. Interestingly, while chaos gripping much of the Mideast is leading to disengagement by world powers, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden explore why China is actually looking to invest more in the region. In recent years, China was also always the poster child for the worst pollution in the world that came along with rapid growth. Now that China is trying to clean up its act, and India has joined the club of rapid growth, it is facing its own challenges. Bhargav Krishna writes from New Delhi that, “India’s under-funded public health system is straining to cope with the increasing burden of pollution-driven illnesses.” Writing from Hong Kong Wang Xiangwei reports that President Xi Jinping, recently donned “a core leader,” denounced resistance to his reforms by local officials at a Politburo meeting this week after which his comments were splashed across national media. Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei argues that, despite Brexit and the Trump election, globalization is not doomed; it is just shifting East with China in a leading position. Taking a comprehensive strategic view of world events, Zbigniew Brzezinski proposes that the only effective response to the present crisis of global power is trilateral cooperation among the U.S., China and Russia. He warns that, “The U.S. should not act towards China as if it were already an enemy; significantly, it should not favor India as America’s principal ally in Asia. This would almost guarantee a closer connection between China and Russia. Nothing is more dangerous to the U.S. than such a close connection.” Our Singularity series this week looks at the technological developments to watch in 2017 – artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, decentralized peer-to-peer networks, biosynthetic labs and autonomous vehicles. Finally, our latest column by the Future of Life Institute reminds us that, in many ways, 2016 was a year of hope with advances in AI and health as well as new moves to reduce the global number of nuclear weapons. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

03 января, 21:28

Twitter And 'Cheap Talk' Diplomacy

Yesterday, President-Elect Trump responded to Vladimir Putin's response to American sanctions on Russia for espionage with a tweet that read "Great move on delay (by V. Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!". Trump's tweet followed a Russian one, a day earlier, of the word "Lame" over a picture of a duck, also in response to sanctions. In the last couple weeks, the President-Elect has purportedly said "Let it be an arm's race" and otherwise made remarks the flippancy of which has shocked the foreign policy world. "Words," Hillary Clinton, said of Donald Trump's tendency to say outlandish things, "have consequences" and in the chess match of strategic relations where every statement and action historically has been pored over and studied before eliciting the optimal counter-move, his words have been generally condemned. Game theory predates the 20th Century but came into its own during the Cold War-- advanced by geniuses such as John Nash, Michael Spence and Thomas Schelling who would all go on to win Nobel prizes. Though developed at universities, it was applied by the Pentagon and security community to navigate the threat of nuclear annihilation through one false move. In games with frontiers, each move or statement counted and, in the type of games that became known as signaling games, signaling was never cheap. However, in 1982, two economists Vincent Crawford and Joel Sobel proposed a type of game, "Cheap Talk" in which talk is free. In contrast to traditional signals--a costly college degree signaling intelligence to employers, for example, in the classic paper by Spence--in games of cheap talk, people can say anything at no cost. Sending signals or information in the real world had always been expensive. A call on the "red" hotline to Moscow--an idea championed by Schelling before JFK set it up in 1963 was expensive--requiring the resources of government to carry out--though that was far less expensive Schelling realized than an errant plane or bomb. Even in biology, signaling is typically costly--think peacocks and their plumage as a sign of strength. In the age of Twitter, however, information can be translated at minimal cost. Though Donald Trump is not an economist he is a bargaining savant and it is possible he has stumbled on cheap talk as a useful technique. When talk is free--or more specifically costless--it means people can literally say anything. They may tell the truth--or they may not. To be credible, however, there must be some chance that the signal is true. So people may include some signal in a sea of noise. When participants have interests in common, Crawford and Sobel found, they can achieve a better outcome through cheap talk than otherwise. Subsequent work by other economists has confirmed that cheap talk can improve outcomes when two parties to a negotiation have similar interests. However when they have little to gain by cooperating, each will have an incentive to lie that will render the cheap talk increasingly meaningless. The benefits from cheap talk seem to max out when being truthful but also vague. Currently, the President-Elect's Twitter cheap talk approach and the traditional Cold War approach to strategic relations seem diametrically opposed. In the traditional way of doing things, every move is important, every stray word or posture, kabuki-like in its meaning and the best outcome requires carefully calculating each response. No doubt, that approach grew out of hard lessons--World War II, the Korean War and decades of wrangling with Moscow. A long series of proxy conflicts and outright wars in the Congo, Cuba and Vietnam, testify to the high cost of superpowers signaling military strength. In contrast, Cheap Talk is largely untested in strategic relations though the Internet has made it increasingly affordable. When interests align, theory suggests it may lead to higher outcomes. Russia and the US have some interests in common--the costs of war and benefits of peace that are always present in strategic relations--and now the desire to defeat Isis. Whether those interests are adequate to overcome an equally longstanding rivalry, traverse the current rough patch in US-Soviet relations and avert a new Cold War is unknown. However, it would be beneficial for all parties on both sides to grasp that we have entered a new era of virtually free information and cheap talk. In other words, as dangerous as incendiary comments themselves, may be taking those comments literally. Theatrical gestures on both sides should be taken with a large grain of Salt (with apologies for the metaphor) and not treated as strategic moves. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

28 декабря 2016, 10:22

Чего не хватает Китаю для трансформации экономики?

Удастся ли мировой экономике избежать затяжной стагнации во многом зависит от того, сможет ли Китай переориентировать экономику на внутренний спрос. Как пишет в своей статье на Project Syndicate лауреат Нобелевской премии Майкл Спенс, для трансформации Китаю необходимо ликвидировать дисбалансы в финансовой системе.

28 декабря 2016, 00:53

Чего не хватает Китаю для трансформации экономики?

Удастся ли мировой экономике избежать затяжной стагнации, во многом зависит от того, сможет ли Китай переориентировать экономику на внутренний спрос.

28 декабря 2016, 00:53

Чего не хватает Китаю для трансформации экономики?

Удастся ли мировой экономике избежать затяжной стагнации во многом зависит от того, сможет ли Китай переориентировать экономику на внутренний спрос.

02 декабря 2016, 12:18

Трамп — предвестник нового экономического порядка

За последние несколько лет мировая экономика существенно изменилась, произошла кардинальная смена приоритетов. Как пишет в своей статье на Project Syndicate Майкл Спенс, в текущих реалиях на первое место выходят приоритеты по справедливому распределению экономического роста, созданию устойчивых экономических моделей.

02 декабря 2016, 00:03

Трамп - предвестник нового экономического порядка

За последние несколько лет мировая экономика существенно изменилась, произошла кардинальная смена приоритетов.

02 декабря 2016, 00:03

Трамп - предвестник нового экономического порядка

За последние несколько лет мировая экономика существенно изменилась, произошла кардинальная смена приоритетов.

12 ноября 2016, 04:45

Weekend Roundup: Democracy Disrupts Itself

When unresponsive elites forsake the common folk in governing systems anchored in popular sovereignty, demagogues who fashion themselves as tribunes of the people ride the rage to power and wreck it all. As the classicist Philip Freeman observes, that has been the pattern going back more than two millennia to the demise of the Roman republic. So, too, he writes, Donald Trump’s victory could well mark the beginning of the end of the American republic.  The decay of democracy in the United States over recent decades has produced the worst of both worlds. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton embodied an insider establishment captured by the big-money politics of organized special interests. Out of touch inside its smug bubble, her campaign failed to grasp the anger and resentment of the excluded. As Krystal Ball unsparingly writes, “the Democratic Party deserved to die.” Taking a page from the rise of fascism in Europe, Republican nominee Donald Trump poisonously exploited the very real travails of the left behind by blaming it all on the world outside and enemies within. Realizing the worst fears of the American Founding Fathers, the democratic ballot box has now unleashed the darkest forces within the body politic. A populist charlatan will soon take up residence in the White House. Trump’s triumph is not just the turn of another electoral cycle. It reveals a systemic crisis of American democracy. Without reinvigorated institutions and practices that temper passions while embracing diversity and engaging those who have been abandoned, the “Great Reaction” could endure for a long while. Just because Trump won the election, Dean Obeidallah says, the hatred and bigotry he spewed in the campaign cannot simply be absolved and forgotten. Based on their research, psychologists Michele Gelfand and Joshua Conrad Jackson report that, “the strongest Trump supporters were those who felt that America was under grave threat and believed that the country needed tighter rules and less tolerance toward anyone who seemed ‘un-American.’” Howard Fineman points out the paradox that, “Trump ran and won as a change agent who promised to restore the past.” Yet, as he also observes, “a new America will continue to develop; demographics and technology make it inevitable.” Because the U.S. is the leading global power, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt sees the “Great Reaction” reverberating around the planet, weakening the liberal order rooted in tolerance and openness and strengthening those lured by the siren of xenophobia and closed societies. Thomas Weber worries that we are witnessing an erosion of liberal democracy across the West by the kind of revolutionary upheavals that swept the world at the turn of the 20th century. Nick Robins-Early surveys how Trump’s election has plunged the rest of the world into uncertainty over the future of America’s alliances and commitment to global institutions. Philippe Legrain fears that Trump’s “America First,” anti-globalist agenda will add further momentum to a world already sinking into disorder, stoking an intensified clash of civilizations with the Muslim-majority world, inciting confrontation if not violence with Hispanic immigrants and fostering global recession through trade protectionism. And that is not to speak of abandoning the Iran nuclear deal as well as unhinging the balance of power in East Asia and Europe if the U.S. backs away from its security alliances. None of these possibilities, he notes, are likely to be mitigated by a Republican-dominated Congress that arrived on Trump’s coattails. What is missing from these analyses is that Trump’s “America First” policy is willing to let go of the outdated post-World War II international institutions and alliances in a way that the establishment was never willing to do. Paradoxically, that opens the path for a long overdue revamping of the world order to accommodate the rise of the emerging economies, most notably China. The key is making the transition without creating a vacuum. It is encouraging that a top aide to Trump has already said that not joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was a “strategic mistake” for the U.S. that the new administration would seek to correct. Writing from Mexico City, Homero Aridjis describes the mood across the border. “This is a political earthquake for the Mexican government that will require a massive overhaul of every aspect of the relationship between our two countries,” he says. Yet Aridjis also sees a “timid optimism.” It is not impossible, Aridjis muses, that Trump, a deal-maker, could come to terms with Mexico on both trade and immigration. A Trump presidency is surely bad news, though, for the fight against climate change, Kate Sheppard writes, since he has baldly stated in the past that he considers it is all “bullshit” and a “hoax.” Nick Visser reports on the anxiety the U.S. election has introduced at the U.N. climate conference in Morocco this week that is working out the details of implementing the historic Paris accord. UNESCO chief Irina Bokova makes the case for carrying the climate change battle to the classroom. “We need greener societies,” she writes. “To succeed, fundamentally, we need green citizens.” Carolyn Gregoire reports on a groundbreaking experiment in which “psychobiotics” use gut bacteria to treat mental illness. Finally, our Singularity series this week takes you on a virtual ride in a fully autonomous Tesla.  WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. CORRESPONDENTS: Sophia Jones in Istanbul. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

04 ноября 2016, 12:02

Does the Economy Really Need to Keep Growing Quite So Much?

Questioning a basic orthodoxy

13 октября 2016, 19:53

Aleppo?????

Profound thoughts arise only in debate, with a possibility of counterargument, only when there is a possibility of expressing not only correct ideas but also dubious ideas. Andrei Dmitrievich Sakharov, Progress, Coexistence and Intellectual Freedom They weren't watching the debate. Because of their close quarters, the parents knew that if they were watching, their children would be watching and they knew that what the children didn't hear would be upsetting for the children. They would be unable to explain to the children why they didn't hear what they didn't hear. Those parents' reasons for not letting their children watch were different from those parents who didn't let their children watch because of what might be explicitly said about Mr. Trump's voracious sexual appetite. The parents in the first group would not know how to explain to their children that for almost the first half hour of the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on October 9, 2016, the children heard no discussion of their plight. The parents would not know how to explain to their children that when directly asked in the second half hour of the debate what each of them would do to help the few families that may be left when sworn in as president, one at first answered obliquely and only in follow up discussion made more definitive statements as to what she would do. The other made no attempt to answer the question. The question had been submitted by a listener: "[I]f you were president, what would you do about Syria and the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo. Isn't it a lot like the Holocaust when the U.S. waited too long before we helped?" The question might have been inspired by a report in the New York Times that sought to explain why so many children were being killed in Aleppo. As the opening paragraph of the New York Times report said: "They [children] cannot play, sleep or attend school. Increasingly, they cannot eat. Injury or illness could be fatal. Many just huddle with their parents in windowless underground shelters . . . . Among the roughly 250,000 people trapped in the insurgent redoubt of the divided northern Syrian city are 100,000 children. Secretary Clinton gave the first inadequate response. She said that the situation in Aleppo is "catastrophic." As Secretary of State she said she had advocated no-fly and safe zones. She said the United States had to work more closely with its allies on the ground. Mr. Trump responded using 349 words. He never mentioned Aleppo. The moderator repeated the question about Aleppo quoting Michael Spence, the vice-presidential candidate saying that the United States "should be prepared to use military force to strike the military targets of the Assad regime." Mr. Trump's only statement about what the United States should do in Aleppo was to say that he disagreed with Mr. Spence and said: "I think Aleppo is a disaster- "humanitarian-wise." Pressed further, he began discussing events in Mosul, Iraq, at great length. When he had finished, Secretary Clinton was again asked whether she would advocate the use of U.S. military force to back up diplomacy and what she would do differently from what the president was doing. She responded that she would not use ground forces in Syria, but would advocate the use of special forces as was being done in Iraq. With that response, Aleppo went to the back of the discussion, a discussion that concluded with more discussion of the use of forces in Iraq. As Martha Raddatz, one of the moderators, brought that discussion to a close, Mr. Trump, who had only mentioned the word Aleppo once in his answers, concluded his remarks on the subject saying: "You know what's funny? She went over a minute over, and you don't stop her. When I go one second over, it's like a big deal." The parents huddled in the basements of what was left of their houses, did not want their children to hear what the two candidates for the presidency of the strongest country in the world had said in response to the question about their plight. The little boy who had been photographed sitting pitifully in a chair with his bloody face only a few weeks earlier would not have understood when his mother tried to explain to him why only one of the candidates to become president of the United States even attempted to explain what she would do to help him and his family and others like him. The parents of the child who was seen being pulled from the rubble after a bunker bomb had destroyed his safe haven, would not understand why one of the candidates was so concerned about how much time he had to answer a question, when the little boy wondered how much time he had left before another bomb landed on his dwelling. There was one bit of encouraging news the Aleppo parents could have shared with their children had they let them watch. They could tell their children that whereas the word "Aleppo" was used only ten times in the Sunday night debate, it was not mentioned at all in the debate ten days earlier. As a spokeswoman for the American Relief Coalition for Syria said after the first debate, the coalition was "deeply disappointed by the utter failure of last night's debate to even mention Syria." The Coalition's disappointment with the candidates' responses after Sunday night's debate was probably only slightly less than it had been the previous week. Understandably. Imagine how the children in Aleppo would have felt had they only known. Christopher Brauchli can be emailed at [email protected] For political commentary see his web page at http://humanraceandothersports.com -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

11 октября 2016, 14:00

Теория контрактов: в чем суть открытий нобелевских лауреатов-2016

Премию по экономике получили Оливер Харт и Бенгт Хольмстрем

21 августа 2016, 23:02

Procrastinating on August 21, 2016

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must-Reads:** * **Michael Spence**: _[Growth in a Time of Disruption][]_: Developing countries are facing major obstacles... * **Michael D. Carr and Emily E. Wiemers**: _[The decline in lifetime earnings mobility in the U.S.: Evidence from survey-linked administrative data][]_: Abstract: There is a sizable literature that examines...

19 августа 2016, 18:17

Без заголовка

**Must-Read:** But what does "developing countries must accept the inevitability of changes to their growth models caused by digital technologies. Instead of viewing these changes as a threat, and trying to resist them, developing economies should be getting ahead of them..." mean, concretely, on the ground? Take advantage of digital...

15 августа 2016, 17:29

Links for the Week of August 21, 2016

**Most-Recent Must-Reads:** * **Justin Fox**: _[Where Median Incomes Have Fallen the Most][]_: Median household income... hit an all-time high in 1999 of $57,843... and as of 2014 stood at $53,657--a 7.2 percent decline... * **Devin Bunten**: _[Is the Rent Too High? Aggregate Implications of Local Land-Use Regulation][]_: Highly productive U.S....

05 августа 2016, 15:35

Без заголовка

**Must-Read: George Akerlof** (2001): _[Writing the "The Market for 'Lemons'": A Personal Interpretive Essay][]_: >Rejections and Acceptance: By June of 1967 the paper was ready... [Writing the "The Market for 'Lemons'": A Personal Interpretive Essay]: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economic-sciences/laureates/2001/akerlof-article.html >...and I sent it to The American Economic Review for publication. I was spending...

Выбор редакции
30 июля 2016, 01:25

Why Does Economics Reject New Thinking?

Hadn't heard this story before: Why Does Economics Reject New Thinking?, by Rick McGahey: The Economist magazine is running a series on six big economic ideas that have shaped the field in recent decades, and they start with one of...

30 июля 2016, 00:10

Weekend Roundup: This Election Is About Defining America

Most presidential elections in America have been contests over different policy solutions and approaches but rooted in a commonly agreed reality. This time around, as the back-to-back Republican and Democratic conventions have demonstrated, the dispute is over what constitutes reality itself. More than anything else, this election is about defining what America is. Nominating conclaves used to be mainly about gritty political tradeoffs among factions in order to reach consensus on a candidate. These conventions were Hollywood-style orchestrations, replete with celebrity testimonials and musical performances, aimed at convincing the larger public of which reality to believe. Donald Trump and company argue we should be afraid, very afraid, because de-nationalized cosmopolitan elites have lost the will to protect the safety and economic well-being of Americans in a dangerous and ruthlessly competitive world. Climate change, which they recklessly deny, doesn't make their list of concerns. Hillary Clinton and company argue that President Obama has set America on the right course, disengaging from a war footing and celebrating diversity as the nation's greatest strength. For them, the real danger is not Trump's Mexicans or Muslims but intolerant and divisive nativism. And for the Democrats, in the end it is the chastised establishment insiders, not disenchanted outsiders, who are the most competent to implement incremental change that will reduce inequality and curb the inordinate influence of the one percent. The contest over defining who we are seems to have come about for two reasons. First, the consciousness of most Americans now dwells in media silos that are echo chambers of their own worldview and not objective platforms that establish a common grasp of the facts. Second, America, like the rest of the world, is in the midst of a Great Transformation in which the established institutions that sustained stability and progress for decades are ill suited to face the social upheaval of rapid technological change and globalization that is creating new classes of winners and losers. Caught in the purgatory of no longer and not yet, a clear path to salvation eludes the unsettled body politic. The left-populist filmmaker Michael Moore lays out several reasons he is convinced that Trump will win the presidency. As Moore sees it, the Republican candidate will triumph in the key economically depressed Midwestern states, an outcome he calls America's "Rust Belt Brexit." Further, white men full of resentment at being left behind in an ever more diverse society will vote in Trump's favor. Hillary is just too unpopular among the general public, says Moore, while the reluctant stance of disappointed Bernie Sanders supporters will translate into a weak showing for her at the polls. Lastly, Moore expects the mischievous "Jesse Ventura effect" of voters who want to upset the applecart "to make Mommy and Daddy mad." An even more bizarre overlay in this year's election is the apparent strongman sympathies between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, compounded by the "high confidence" judgment of American intelligence that the Russian government hacked into the Democratic National Committee emails. Writing from Moscow, Anastasya Manuilova says that while it is "not implausible to say that such government-backed hackers do exist" in Russia, most of her colleagues at the Kommersant newspaper found the allegations "too far-fetched" or lacking enough proof to make such an elaborate scheme believable. Russian chess champion and thorn in Putin's side, Garry Kasparov, is not surprised by alleged Russian meddling in American politics on behalf of "the extraordinarily disruptive and unpredictable" Trump. "Putin wants to stoke chaos and discord in the West," he writes. Writing from Armenia, Armine Sahakyan says she is "convinced that not just Putin but also every other dictator in the former Soviet Union would love a Trump presidency. That way the United States would stop harping on their corruption, human rights abuses and other shortcomings -- and let them kill and imprison political opponents and subjugate neighbors with impunity." Continuing terrorist attacks in Europe, including the brutal throat slitting of an elderly Catholic priest in France by terrorists who claimed allegiance to the so-called Islamic State, are leading to a more urgent reverberation of the divisive American debate. Writing from Paris, Frederic Sicard argues against the state of emergency declared by President Francois Hollande. "Faced with barbarity, can't our democracies choose not to seek safety only by sacrificing the very foundations of our society of law and freedom?" he asks. "By muting our deepest aspirations, are we not playing into the hands of terrorism?" Writing from Germany, Roland Tichy reflects on the recent string of terror acts in his country. "The stark political divisions on display in the U.S.," he says, "now appear in Germany as well. Germany is becoming more colorful, thus becoming more American: It is also growing more violent in its hostilities, more unforgiving. This divide will increase along the ethnic and social fault lines." As a pervasive sense of insecurity spreads across Europe, it is also about to be hit with a new financial crisis over Italy's insolvent banks. Despite EU rules against bailouts, Steve Hanke argues that "an Italian state rescue" is the most sensible way to recapitalize the troubled banks. Europe's tough and powerful commissioner for competition, Margrethe Vestager, lays out why and how markets must work for citizens. Wikileaks is not only roiling the U.S. election through the release of internal DNC emails. It also helped publicize the so-called "Erodgan emails" in the wake of the recent coup attempt in Turkey. Zeynep Tufekci slams Wikileaks and the hackers behind the data dump for irresponsibly publicizing documents that shed no light on the regime but which instead included the identities, addresses and contact details of women who belong to the ruling Justice and Development Party. "Their addresses are out there for every stalker, ex-partner, disapproving relative or random crazy to peruse as they wish," she writes. As a result of our post, the uploaded files to which Wikileaks linked have been removed. James Dorsey scores the anti-Gulenist purge underway in Turkey as strengthening militants and jihadists in Pakistan as the Turkish government demands the closure of the "PakTurkey" schools run by Gulenists there that teach science and moderation instead of extremism. In an interview, sociologist Joshua Hendrik explains what we need to know about Fethullah Gulen and the Hizmet ("service") organization over which he presides. WorldPost correspondent Sophia Jones reports from Istanbul on a major demonstration this week by opposition groups to show solidarity against the recent coup from across the political spectrum. As the Olympics are about to get underway in Brazil, Yale's Joseph Lewnard contends that the fear of the Zika virus spreading as a result of large numbers of people gathering at the Games is highly exaggerated. Criminologist John Carl takes a critical look at the prison system in America, which has the world's largest incarcerated population per capita, tracing its origins to the unforgiving Puritan culture from which it was born. Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden examine China's growing military presence in Africa, ranging from greater engagement in United Nations peacekeeping missions to anti-piracy patrols to its nearly completed navy outpost in Djibouti. This interactive world map reshapes countries and continents if we look at the factor of wealth instead of geography and population. Our Singularity series this week looks at a new bio-robot shaped like a stingray and made of heart cells that can be controlled by light. WHO WE ARE EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost's news coverage. Charlotte Alfred and Nick Robins-Early are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. CORRESPONDENTS: Sophia Jones in Istanbul. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the "whole mind" way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute's 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as the Advisory Council -- as well as regular contributors -- to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

30 июля 2016, 00:10

Weekend Roundup: This Election Is About Defining America

Most presidential elections in America have been contests over different policy solutions and approaches but rooted in a commonly agreed reality. This time around, as the back-to-back Republican and Democratic conventions have demonstrated, the dispute is over what constitutes reality itself. More than anything else, this election is about defining what America is. Nominating conclaves used to be mainly about gritty political tradeoffs among factions in order to reach consensus on a candidate. These conventions were Hollywood-style orchestrations, replete with celebrity testimonials and musical performances, aimed at convincing the larger public of which reality to believe. Donald Trump and company argue we should be afraid, very afraid, because de-nationalized cosmopolitan elites have lost the will to protect the safety and economic well-being of Americans in a dangerous and ruthlessly competitive world. Climate change, which they recklessly deny, doesn't make their list of concerns. Hillary Clinton and company argue that President Obama has set America on the right course, disengaging from a war footing and celebrating diversity as the nation's greatest strength. For them, the real danger is not Trump's Mexicans or Muslims but intolerant and divisive nativism. And for the Democrats, in the end it is the chastised establishment insiders, not disenchanted outsiders, who are the most competent to implement incremental change that will reduce inequality and curb the inordinate influence of the one percent. The contest over defining who we are seems to have come about for two reasons. First, the consciousness of most Americans now dwells in media silos that are echo chambers of their own worldview and not objective platforms that establish a common grasp of the facts. Second, America, like the rest of the world, is in the midst of a Great Transformation in which the established institutions that sustained stability and progress for decades are ill suited to face the social upheaval of rapid technological change and globalization that is creating new classes of winners and losers. Caught in the purgatory of no longer and not yet, a clear path to salvation eludes the unsettled body politic. The left-populist filmmaker Michael Moore lays out several reasons he is convinced that Trump will win the presidency. As Moore sees it, the Republican candidate will triumph in the key economically depressed Midwestern states, an outcome he calls America's "Rust Belt Brexit." Further, white men full of resentment at being left behind in an ever more diverse society will vote in Trump's favor. Hillary is just too unpopular among the general public, says Moore, while the reluctant stance of disappointed Bernie Sanders supporters will translate into a weak showing for her at the polls. Lastly, Moore expects the mischievous "Jesse Ventura effect" of voters who want to upset the applecart "to make Mommy and Daddy mad." An even more bizarre overlay in this year's election is the apparent strongman sympathies between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, compounded by the "high confidence" judgment of American intelligence that the Russian government hacked into the Democratic National Committee emails. Writing from Moscow, Anastasya Manuilova says that while it is "not implausible to say that such government-backed hackers do exist" in Russia, most of her colleagues at the Kommersant newspaper found the allegations "too far-fetched" or lacking enough proof to make such an elaborate scheme believable. Russian chess champion and thorn in Putin's side, Garry Kasparov, is not surprised by alleged Russian meddling in American politics on behalf of "the extraordinarily disruptive and unpredictable" Trump. "Putin wants to stoke chaos and discord in the West," he writes. Writing from Armenia, Armine Sahakyan says she is "convinced that not just Putin but also every other dictator in the former Soviet Union would love a Trump presidency. That way the United States would stop harping on their corruption, human rights abuses and other shortcomings -- and let them kill and imprison political opponents and subjugate neighbors with impunity." Continuing terrorist attacks in Europe, including the brutal throat slitting of an elderly Catholic priest in France by terrorists who claimed allegiance to the so-called Islamic State, are leading to a more urgent reverberation of the divisive American debate. Writing from Paris, Frederic Sicard argues against the state of emergency declared by President Francois Hollande. "Faced with barbarity, can't our democracies choose not to seek safety only by sacrificing the very foundations of our society of law and freedom?" he asks. "By muting our deepest aspirations, are we not playing into the hands of terrorism?" Writing from Germany, Roland Tichy reflects on the recent string of terror acts in his country. "The stark political divisions on display in the U.S.," he says, "now appear in Germany as well. Germany is becoming more colorful, thus becoming more American: It is also growing more violent in its hostilities, more unforgiving. This divide will increase along the ethnic and social fault lines." As a pervasive sense of insecurity spreads across Europe, it is also about to be hit with a new financial crisis over Italy's insolvent banks. Despite EU rules against bailouts, Steve Hanke argues that "an Italian state rescue" is the most sensible way to recapitalize the troubled banks. Europe's tough and powerful commissioner for competition, Margrethe Vestager, lays out why and how markets must work for citizens. Wikileaks is not only roiling the U.S. election through the release of internal DNC emails. It also helped publicize the so-called "Erodgan emails" in the wake of the recent coup attempt in Turkey. Zeynep Tufekci slams Wikileaks and the hackers behind the data dump for irresponsibly publicizing documents that shed no light on the regime but which instead included the identities, addresses and contact details of women who belong to the ruling Justice and Development Party. "Their addresses are out there for every stalker, ex-partner, disapproving relative or random crazy to peruse as they wish," she writes. As a result of our post, the uploaded files to which Wikileaks linked have been removed. James Dorsey scores the anti-Gulenist purge underway in Turkey as strengthening militants and jihadists in Pakistan as the Turkish government demands the closure of the "PakTurkey" schools run by Gulenists there that teach science and moderation instead of extremism. In an interview, sociologist Joshua Hendrik explains what we need to know about Fethullah Gulen and the Hizmet ("service") organization over which he presides. WorldPost correspondent Sophia Jones reports from Istanbul on a major demonstration this week by opposition groups to show solidarity against the recent coup from across the political spectrum. As the Olympics are about to get underway in Brazil, Yale's Joseph Lewnard contends that the fear of the Zika virus spreading as a result of large numbers of people gathering at the Games is highly exaggerated. Criminologist John Carl takes a critical look at the prison system in America, which has the world's largest incarcerated population per capita, tracing its origins to the unforgiving Puritan culture from which it was born. Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden examine China's growing military presence in Africa, ranging from greater engagement in United Nations peacekeeping missions to anti-piracy patrols to its nearly completed navy outpost in Djibouti. This interactive world map reshapes countries and continents if we look at the factor of wealth instead of geography and population. Our Singularity series this week looks at a new bio-robot shaped like a stingray and made of heart cells that can be controlled by light. WHO WE ARE EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost's news coverage. Charlotte Alfred and Nick Robins-Early are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. CORRESPONDENTS: Sophia Jones in Istanbul. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the "whole mind" way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute's 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as the Advisory Council -- as well as regular contributors -- to the site. 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05 мая 2016, 01:03

Гросс: роботизация приведет к "социализму поневоле"

Билл Гросс, один из самых успешных управляющих за всю историю современных рынков облигаций, считает, что власти западных стран в дальнейшем будут вынуждены все активнее печатать деньги для поддержки своих экономик и населения.