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21 апреля, 23:44

Weekend Roundup: Amid Great Cultural Shifts, Voting Settles Little

In an era of profound cultural transformation, elections and referendums have very real consequences ― such as the repeal of environmental regulations or crackdowns on press freedom. But as much as they reveal how markedly divided societies are at this historical moment, they settle little. For those who are nostalgic for an ideal past, the challenges of a complex future wrought by globalization, digital disruption and increasing cultural diversity remain unresolved. For those looking ahead, there is no going back. The present political reaction is only the first act, not the last. It is the beginning, not the end, of the story of societies in fluid transition. The recent Turkish referendum, like Brexit and U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, fits a pattern of a territorial divide. Residents in large cities and coastal zones linked to global integration and cosmopolitan culture represented just under half of the vote; rural, small-town and Rust Belt regions linked more to the traditions and economic structures of the past were just over half. But there is also a major difference. The populist, nationalist narrative that won the day in Great Britain and the United States championed the “left behind” and splintered the unresponsive mainstream political parties. In Turkey, the day was won by a conservative, pious and upwardly mobile constituency already empowered by some 15 years of rule by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party. The cultural duel there, backed up by neo-Islamist and nationalist statism, will thus be more intense than elsewhere. In an interview following the historic vote in her country, novelist Elif Shafak says, “The referendum has not solved anything. If anything, it deepened the existing cultural and ideological divisions.” She also laments the decline of Turkey’s long experiment as a majority-Muslim country attempting to balance culture, secularism and Western democracy. “This is the most significant turning point in Turkey’s modern political history,” she declares. “It is a shift backwards; the end of parliamentary democracy. It is also a dangerous discontinuation of decades of Westernization, secularism and modernization; the discontinuation of Atatürk’s modern Turkey.” Writing from Istanbul, Behlül Özkan explains the details of the constitutional referendum, how the playing field was tilted in Erdoğan’s favor and how it will have massive implications for Turkey’s future. He also emphasizes the historic importance of Turkey’s reverse. Özkan cites the political theorist Samuel Huntington who, in an essay decades ago on transitions from authoritarian rule, once defined Turkey as a clear example of a one-party system becoming more open and competitive under the constitution put in place by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. It is rare in history to move in the other direction, as Erdoğan has now accomplished. Also writing from Istanbul, Alev Scott believes Turkey is in for “a decade of paranoia under a modern-day Sultan” who was unnerved by the slim margin of his victory. Noting a widely circulated photograph of the president at his moment of triumph, she saw a man not “celebrating victory” but “a man alarmed by near-defeat.” Even as critics within Turkey and others abroad expressed concern over the extinguishing of democracy, Trump again showed his affinity for strongman politics by calling to congratulate Erdoğan on his victory. Yet, as with other countries from India to Argentina, there is likely another element as well to this potentially budding bromance. Sam Stein and Igor Bobic report on ethical issues raised by Trump’s business ties with Turkey. In 2012, Erdoğan joined Trump and his family to mark the opening of Trump Towers Istanbul.  Here are a few additional highlights from The WorldPost this week: 11 Things To Know About North Korea’s Secret Nuclear Program North Korea’s Simple But Deadly Artillery Holds Seoul And U.S. Hostage Bill Clinton’s Secretary Of Defense Likes Trump’s North Korea Strategy Photo Series Show The People Of North Korea You Rarely Get To See 4 Reasons Why France’s Presidential Election Is So Important France’s Youth Are Turning To The Far-Right National Front Can American Democracy Survive The Era Of Inequality? Trump Shouldn’t Mess With The Clean Air Act, American Lung Association Warns Amazing Photos Capture How Flowers Look Under Ultraviolet Light  WHO WE ARE     EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar(First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherlandand Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

21 апреля, 23:44

Weekend Roundup: Amid Great Cultural Shifts, Voting Settles Little

In an era of profound cultural transformation, elections and referendums have very real consequences ― such as the repeal of environmental regulations or crackdowns on press freedom. But as much as they reveal how markedly divided societies are at this historical moment, they settle little. For those who are nostalgic for an ideal past, the challenges of a complex future wrought by globalization, digital disruption and increasing cultural diversity remain unresolved. For those looking ahead, there is no going back. The present political reaction is only the first act, not the last. It is the beginning, not the end, of the story of societies in fluid transition. The recent Turkish referendum, like Brexit and U.S. President Donald Trump’s election, fits a pattern of a territorial divide. Residents in large cities and coastal zones linked to global integration and cosmopolitan culture represented just under half of the vote; rural, small-town and Rust Belt regions linked more to the traditions and economic structures of the past were just over half. But there is also a major difference. The populist, nationalist narrative that won the day in Great Britain and the United States championed the “left behind” and splintered the unresponsive mainstream political parties. In Turkey, the day was won by a conservative, pious and upwardly mobile constituency already empowered by some 15 years of rule by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party. The cultural duel there, backed up by neo-Islamist and nationalist statism, will thus be more intense than elsewhere. In an interview following the historic vote in her country, novelist Elif Shafak says, “The referendum has not solved anything. If anything, it deepened the existing cultural and ideological divisions.” She also laments the decline of Turkey’s long experiment as a majority-Muslim country attempting to balance culture, secularism and Western democracy. “This is the most significant turning point in Turkey’s modern political history,” she declares. “It is a shift backwards; the end of parliamentary democracy. It is also a dangerous discontinuation of decades of Westernization, secularism and modernization; the discontinuation of Atatürk’s modern Turkey.” Writing from Istanbul, Behlül Özkan explains the details of the constitutional referendum, how the playing field was tilted in Erdoğan’s favor and how it will have massive implications for Turkey’s future. He also emphasizes the historic importance of Turkey’s reverse. Özkan cites the political theorist Samuel Huntington who, in an essay decades ago on transitions from authoritarian rule, once defined Turkey as a clear example of a one-party system becoming more open and competitive under the constitution put in place by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. It is rare in history to move in the other direction, as Erdoğan has now accomplished. Also writing from Istanbul, Alev Scott believes Turkey is in for “a decade of paranoia under a modern-day Sultan” who was unnerved by the slim margin of his victory. Noting a widely circulated photograph of the president at his moment of triumph, she saw a man not “celebrating victory” but “a man alarmed by near-defeat.” Even as critics within Turkey and others abroad expressed concern over the extinguishing of democracy, Trump again showed his affinity for strongman politics by calling to congratulate Erdoğan on his victory. Yet, as with other countries from India to Argentina, there is likely another element as well to this potentially budding bromance. Sam Stein and Igor Bobic report on ethical issues raised by Trump’s business ties with Turkey. In 2012, Erdoğan joined Trump and his family to mark the opening of Trump Towers Istanbul.  Here are a few additional highlights from The WorldPost this week: 11 Things To Know About North Korea’s Secret Nuclear Program North Korea’s Simple But Deadly Artillery Holds Seoul And U.S. Hostage Bill Clinton’s Secretary Of Defense Likes Trump’s North Korea Strategy Photo Series Show The People Of North Korea You Rarely Get To See 4 Reasons Why France’s Presidential Election Is So Important France’s Youth Are Turning To The Far-Right National Front Can American Democracy Survive The Era Of Inequality? Trump Shouldn’t Mess With The Clean Air Act, American Lung Association Warns Amazing Photos Capture How Flowers Look Under Ultraviolet Light  WHO WE ARE     EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar(First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherlandand Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

13 апреля, 23:29

Weekend Roundup: Cold War And Quagmire All Over Again

This week, the White House accused Russia of trying to cover up its knowledge of the Syrian chemical attack even as the Senate Intelligence Committee continued its investigation into whether members of the Trump campaign colluded with Russia during the recent U.S. presidential election. Now Russia, which allegedly sought to favorably influence the election in Trump’s direction, is also denying knowledge about the chemical attack in Syria. This is why the ploy and counterploy of “alternative facts” is so corrosive. It engenders paralyzing partisanship at home and provokes cold wars, if not something worse, abroad. Writing from Moscow, Fyodor Lukyanov warns that Russia and the United States are not only back to their old and “normal” ways of confrontation, but could also clash militarily in Syria if the U.S. intervenes further. He is cynical about the impetus of the missile strike on a Syrian air base that boosted Trump’s presidential stature. “Having encountered challenges in implementing his domestic political agenda,” Lukyanov writes, “Trump decided to use foreign policy as an instrument for improving the political atmosphere around his administration.” Lukyanov further cautions against any perception that U.S. actions will force Russian President Vladimir Putin to rein in Syria’s President Bashar Assad: “For Trump, an agreement can only be reached from a position of strength. But for Putin, there can be no agreement under pressure. ... If pressure keeps growing, Russia will respond in its own manner ― asymmetrically and sharply.” Graham Fuller, a former CIA operative with long experience in the Middle East, sees only a quagmire if the U.S. succeeds in removing Assad from power. “A harsh peace under Assad would at least bring the war to an end,” he writes. But if there is regime change, he fears that “warring [extremist] factions would probably promote long-term sectarian cleansing and perpetuate a brutal civil conflict among themselves for years to come.” The National Iranian American Council’s Trita Parsi argues that the U.S. missile strike last week will only lead the Assad regime and its Russian allies “to intensify their assault on the rebel strongholds and the civilians living in those areas. The end result will be a more intensified civil war with more civilian casualties and even greater difficulty for diplomatic efforts to bear fruit.” Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former member of Iran’s National Security Council, also warns that Trump’s Syria strike portends even greater chaos and violence by returning to the U.S. penchant for unilateral military action. “America now stands at the precipice of another Middle Eastern war,” he writes, “one that promises to be even more of a quagmire than Iraq and will only serve to elongate the suffering of the Syrian people. The reality is that for Syria, there is no military solution ― only a political one. And Trump has sadly decided to pursue military action before giving diplomacy a chance.” Tensions are growing in East Asia as well. Writing from South Korea, veteran diplomat David Straub fears the Trump administration’s “all options are on the table” threat against North Korea will only make matters worse. “Where the American threat is having a big impact is on its South Korean ally,” he writes. “The South Korean media now is full of concern that the Trump administration might actually launch a surprise attack on North Korea, as it just did against Syria.” He notes that South Korean progressives who are leading in the polls in upcoming elections “strongly favor unconditional negotiations and engagement with North Korea rather than, as the Trump administration wants, increasing pressure on Pyongyang.” Writing from Hong Kong, Ankit Panda says that the summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping last week at Mar-a-Lago showed the U.S. and China to be only “near-peers” because the U.S. has a scope for military intervention well beyond China’s. “If this wasn’t a moment of humiliation for Xi with nationalistic audiences back home looking for signs of strength against a U.S. leader who had been vocal about pushing back against China,” Panda notes, “it was at least a moment of forced weakness.”  Greg Treverton, who recently stepped down as chairman of the National Intelligence Council, which integrates information from America’s intelligence agencies, takes the long view of our evolving world order. He sees a “reemergence of geopolitics, especially as China and Russia turn to external adventures to shore up internal legitimacy; economic growth slowing or stagnating; individuals and small groups becoming more and more empowered; technology progressing at a dizzying and unequal pace across the globe; conflicts over values; and people becoming more and more disconnected from their governments.” One scenario he and others at NIC imagine emerging out of this constellation is a nuclear attack in South Asia, during which “artificial intelligence systems supporting the military decision makers [make] the crisis worse by misinterpreting signals meant to deter instead as signs of aggressive intent.” A “full nuclear exchange” is averted at the last moment by joint U.S. and Chinese intervention. Writing from Manila, Richard Heydarian ponders the common characteristics between strongman leaders like Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey, Narendra Modi in India and Vladimir Putin in Russia. Populists “have managed to firmly supplant the cold, calculating, rational-technocratic politicians across emerging market democracies,” he writes. WHO WE ARE     EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

18 марта, 12:29

Эксперт: КНР в первую очередь необходимо провести реформу банковского сектора

Правительству Китая необходимо в первую очередь реформировать банковский сектор и снизить контроль над государственными финансовыми институтами. Об этом на открывшем сегодня в Пекине Китайском форуме развития в беседе с корреспондентом ТАСС заявил американский экономист, лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Майкл Спенс.

18 марта, 10:12

Эксперт: КНР в первую очередь необходимо провести реформу банковского сектора

Власти Китая также должны отказаться от строгих и однозначных целевых показателей экономического развития, подчеркнул американский экономист, лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Майкл Спенс

04 марта, 08:16

Пять сценариев развития ситуации в ЕС. Спенс: ЕС в шаге от развала

В среду Еврокомиссия представила "Белую книгу о будущем Европы" — труд, описывающий непростой период выхода Великобритании из ЕС, который, как считает председатель Еврокомиссии Жан-Клод Юнкер, является "основной проблемой и основным источником возможностей для Европы на предстоящее десятилетие". Здесь рассмотрены пять возможных сценариев, по которым Евросоюз мог бы развиваться до 2025 г. с точки зрения влияния новых технологий на общество в целом и на создание рабочих мест. Также в книге поднимаются вопросы глобализации, проблем безопасности и роста популизма. И перед жителями ЕС сейчас стоит выбор: либо пройти мимо этих возможностей, либо воспользоваться ими и получить пользу, которую они могут принести. Население и экономический вес Европы падают, в остальных частях мира, напротив, растут. К 2060 г. ни одна из стран ЕС не будет составлять даже 1% населения мира — веские основания для объединения. Так что процветание Европы будет зависеть от ее открытости и прочных связей со своими партнерами.

04 марта, 01:26

Weekend Roundup: U.S. Founders Entrusted Elites To Save Democracy From Itself

The word “democracy” does not appear in the U.S. Constitution. Nor in the Bill of Rights or the Declaration of Independence. That is because, as most Americans today would likely be surprised to discover, America’s Founding Fathers not only distrusted democracy but, based on their close reading of Greek and Roman history, were actually hostile to the notion that it was the best system for governing society. James Madison, the fourth U.S. president and a key author of the Federalist Papers, famously declared: “Democracy is the most vile form of government ... democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.” John Adams, the second American president, wrote: “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” Taking into account this central lesson of antiquity, the founders instead designed a mixed constitutional republic that, while rooted in consent of the governed, delegated authority to elites ― representative, indirectly elected and appointed bodies ― that could “refine and enlarge the public views” as ballast against the popular passions of prejudice and the narrow horizons of self-interested constituencies. For the founders, popular sovereignty unchecked by the cool and reasoned deliberation of the meritorious few would invite majoritarian intolerance of individual and minority rights, degenerate into mob rule and summon tyranny to restore order. “No political truth is certainly of greater intrinsic value,” Madison wrote in The Federalist Papers No. 47. In an interview with The WorldPost this week, political scientist Francis Fukuyama addresses the conundrum presented to the founders’ idea of governance in the face of 21st century populism. “Populism exists,” he says, “because institutions are elite-driven.” While “institutions in the past have always been controlled by the elites,” he continues, “through the presence of the internet they are losing their power. Maybe democracies don’t work too well without a certain degree of control from elites.” I would add that the great danger today is conflation by fervent populists of corrupt, out-of-touch and unresponsive elites ― that rightly should be overthrown ― with a learned and experienced elite that any large society needs to govern. As a governing ethos, know-nothingness will get you nowhere. Yet, as Pankaj Mishra observes in another WorldPost interview, the very foundation upon which elites might rehabilitate their authority has eroded. The Indian author takes the debate to both a deeper and a more global level by examining how the ressentiment against the cosmopolitan caste that has been gestating in the developing world for decades has now erupted in a mutiny against the governing narrative in “the heart of the modern West.” If the Western “truths” that have dominated the world in modern times at the expense of alternative worldviews are now themselves unraveling, where do we go next? “We are now recognizing that our modern civilization has always been incredibly fragile,” Mishra says, “since it has no recourse to any transcendental truth, as distinct from certain agreed-upon truths. And so while political and economic crises may come and go ― Trump’s presidency may implode tomorrow ― the moral and epistemological breakdown we witness today is more enduring and destructive. I would argue that the naïve people, the free-marketeers and globalizers, responsible for this state of affairs did not know what they were doing ― that they were dismantling a whole system of interlocking and necessary fictions that societies and individuals have needed since the death of God to give a degree of meaning, purpose and stability to their lives.”  The consequence, Mishra argues, is the universalization of nihilism in which the whole notion of “consensual truth” is collapsing. “Nihilism today is the single greatest threat to the modern world since its founding principles of reason, science and progress were formulated,” he concludes. It is not surprising, then, in his view, that “the subjectivization of ‘facts’” and the “fragmentation of ‘truth’” are filling up the vacuum. They are the remainder of the West’s heyday. Nowhere is the truth these days more malleable than in Russia. Writing from Moscow, Ilya Yashin marks the second anniversary this week of the assassination of his friend and opposition leader, Boris Nemstov. Yashin sees a dangerous campaign to revise recent history and roll back post-Soviet advances in the media and the rule of law in the nationalist revival under Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nick Robins-Early reports that Russian disinformation efforts have a lopsided advantage over Europeans trying to defend the integrity of their discourse as elections loom. He also highlights a speech by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban this week in which the leader expressed a new angle on nativism ― that “’ethnic homogeneity’ is key for economic success, and that ‘too much mixing causes problems.’” In a wide-ranging essay, Nicolas Berggruen examines the role of opposition movements. While raucous protests in and of themselves may make a point, he says, they also can create a sense of chaos that “is the greatest gift to parties in power, especially dictators.” Social movements that succeed, by contrast, are characterized by a broadly shared narrative, a plan, organization and leadership, Berggruen argues. This week the Berggruen Institute also hosted a discussion in Los Angeles with Sapiens and Homo Deus author Yuval Harari. The Israeli historian discussed what it means to be human in an era when we are attaining the power of gods to change our own species and create a new one ― AI. “History began when humans invented gods, and will end when humans become gods,” he says.  Former WorldPost China Correspondent Matt Sheehan looks outside the box on the troubled relations between Washington and Beijing. “The engine room of the U.S.-China relationship,” he writes, “has moved from the White House to City Hall.” While the talk in Washington is of tariffs, American mayors are wooing Chinese investors and immigrants for their local projects. Writing from Shanghai, Zhang Weiwei argues that political legitimacy comes fundamentally from the competence of leadership, as in the case of the Chinese Communist Party, that fulfills its contract with the people by delivering prosperity and security ― whether they were elected or not.   Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden see a Trump-inspired shift to China coming to Africa as the continent looks to Beijing for stability in the absence of a clear American Africa policy. Finally, our Singularity series this week asks a question about our pets that we may soon be asking about our children: should we genetically engineer dogs to make them healthier? WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

04 марта, 01:26

Weekend Roundup: U.S. Founders Entrusted Elites To Save Democracy From Itself

The word “democracy” does not appear in the U.S. Constitution. Nor in the Bill of Rights or the Declaration of Independence. That is because, as most Americans today would likely be surprised to discover, America’s Founding Fathers not only distrusted democracy but, based on their close reading of Greek and Roman history, were actually hostile to the notion that it was the best system for governing society. James Madison, the fourth U.S. president and a key author of the Federalist Papers, famously declared: “Democracy is the most vile form of government ... democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.” John Adams, the second American president, wrote: “Democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” Taking into account this central lesson of antiquity, the founders instead designed a mixed constitutional republic that, while rooted in consent of the governed, delegated authority to elites ― representative, indirectly elected and appointed bodies ― that could “refine and enlarge the public views” as ballast against the popular passions of prejudice and the narrow horizons of self-interested constituencies. For the founders, popular sovereignty unchecked by the cool and reasoned deliberation of the meritorious few would invite majoritarian intolerance of individual and minority rights, degenerate into mob rule and summon tyranny to restore order. “No political truth is certainly of greater intrinsic value,” Madison wrote in The Federalist Papers No. 47. In an interview with The WorldPost this week, political scientist Francis Fukuyama addresses the conundrum presented to the founders’ idea of governance in the face of 21st century populism. “Populism exists,” he says, “because institutions are elite-driven.” While “institutions in the past have always been controlled by the elites,” he continues, “through the presence of the internet they are losing their power. Maybe democracies don’t work too well without a certain degree of control from elites.” I would add that the great danger today is conflation by fervent populists of corrupt, out-of-touch and unresponsive elites ― that rightly should be overthrown ― with a learned and experienced elite that any large society needs to govern. As a governing ethos, know-nothingness will get you nowhere. Yet, as Pankaj Mishra observes in another WorldPost interview, the very foundation upon which elites might rehabilitate their authority has eroded. The Indian author takes the debate to both a deeper and a more global level by examining how the ressentiment against the cosmopolitan caste that has been gestating in the developing world for decades has now erupted in a mutiny against the governing narrative in “the heart of the modern West.” If the Western “truths” that have dominated the world in modern times at the expense of alternative worldviews are now themselves unraveling, where do we go next? “We are now recognizing that our modern civilization has always been incredibly fragile,” Mishra says, “since it has no recourse to any transcendental truth, as distinct from certain agreed-upon truths. And so while political and economic crises may come and go ― Trump’s presidency may implode tomorrow ― the moral and epistemological breakdown we witness today is more enduring and destructive. I would argue that the naïve people, the free-marketeers and globalizers, responsible for this state of affairs did not know what they were doing ― that they were dismantling a whole system of interlocking and necessary fictions that societies and individuals have needed since the death of God to give a degree of meaning, purpose and stability to their lives.”  The consequence, Mishra argues, is the universalization of nihilism in which the whole notion of “consensual truth” is collapsing. “Nihilism today is the single greatest threat to the modern world since its founding principles of reason, science and progress were formulated,” he concludes. It is not surprising, then, in his view, that “the subjectivization of ‘facts’” and the “fragmentation of ‘truth’” are filling up the vacuum. They are the remainder of the West’s heyday. Nowhere is the truth these days more malleable than in Russia. Writing from Moscow, Ilya Yashin marks the second anniversary this week of the assassination of his friend and opposition leader, Boris Nemstov. Yashin sees a dangerous campaign to revise recent history and roll back post-Soviet advances in the media and the rule of law in the nationalist revival under Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nick Robins-Early reports that Russian disinformation efforts have a lopsided advantage over Europeans trying to defend the integrity of their discourse as elections loom. He also highlights a speech by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban this week in which the leader expressed a new angle on nativism ― that “’ethnic homogeneity’ is key for economic success, and that ‘too much mixing causes problems.’” In a wide-ranging essay, Nicolas Berggruen examines the role of opposition movements. While raucous protests in and of themselves may make a point, he says, they also can create a sense of chaos that “is the greatest gift to parties in power, especially dictators.” Social movements that succeed, by contrast, are characterized by a broadly shared narrative, a plan, organization and leadership, Berggruen argues. This week the Berggruen Institute also hosted a discussion in Los Angeles with Sapiens and Homo Deus author Yuval Harari. The Israeli historian discussed what it means to be human in an era when we are attaining the power of gods to change our own species and create a new one ― AI. “History began when humans invented gods, and will end when humans become gods,” he says.  Former WorldPost China Correspondent Matt Sheehan looks outside the box on the troubled relations between Washington and Beijing. “The engine room of the U.S.-China relationship,” he writes, “has moved from the White House to City Hall.” While the talk in Washington is of tariffs, American mayors are wooing Chinese investors and immigrants for their local projects. Writing from Shanghai, Zhang Weiwei argues that political legitimacy comes fundamentally from the competence of leadership, as in the case of the Chinese Communist Party, that fulfills its contract with the people by delivering prosperity and security ― whether they were elected or not.   Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden see a Trump-inspired shift to China coming to Africa as the continent looks to Beijing for stability in the absence of a clear American Africa policy. Finally, our Singularity series this week asks a question about our pets that we may soon be asking about our children: should we genetically engineer dogs to make them healthier? WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

03 марта, 00:42

Спенс: ЕС в шаге от развала

Европейский союз в последние годы стал целью для критики со стороны экономистов, и для этого есть существенные причины.

02 марта, 10:57

Project Syndicate: Европа или Анти-Европа?

  Один умный знакомый в Милане недавно задал мне следующий вопрос: «Если иностранный инвестор, например из США, захочет инвестировать значительную сумму в итальянскую экономику, что бы вы ему посоветовали?» Я ответил, что, хотя здесь есть много возможностей для инвестиций в различные компании и отрасли, инвестиционный климат в целом очень запутанный. Я бы порекомендовал инвестировать вместе с хорошо осведомленным местным партнером, который может лавировать в этой системе и различать неявные риски. Конечно, такой же совет можно дать и по поводу многих других стран, например, Китая, Индии и Бразилии. Однако еврозона всё больше превращается в экономических блок стран, движущихся на двух разных скоростях, причём потенциальные политические последствия этой тенденции вызывают у инвесторов повышенную тревогу.  

01 марта, 11:43

Текст: Европа или Анти-Европа? ( Майкл Спенс )

Один умный знакомый в Милане недавно задал мне следующий вопрос: «Если иностранный инвестор, например, из США, захочет инвестировать значительную сумму в итальянскую экономику, что бы вы ему посоветовали?» Я ответил, что, хотя здесь есть много возможностей для инвестиций в различные компании и отрасли, инвестиционный климат в целом очень запутанный. Я бы порекомендовал инвестировать вместе с хорошо осведомлённым местным партнёром, который может лавировать в этой системе и различать неявные риски. Конечно, такой же совет можно дать и по поводу многих других стран, например, Китая, Индии и Бразилии. Однако еврозона всё больше превращается в экономических блок стран, движущихся на двух разных скоростях, причём потенциальные политические последствия этой тенденц...

17 февраля, 20:31

Без заголовка

**Should-Read: Wing Thye Woo**: _[China’s Growth Odyssey][]_: "Former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin is sanguine... [China’s Growth Odyssey]: https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/china-s-growth-odyssey-2017-02 >...Lin is confident that policies to boost domestic demand – including “improvements in infrastructure, urbanization efforts, environmental management, and high-tech industries” – will prove sufficient to meet the government’s...

03 февраля, 21:52

A Super Bowl Ad Is the Equivalent of Lighting Money on Fire (Which Can Be More Strategic Than It Sounds)

Everyone knows that whispering “I love you” to someone you just met over some bangin’ beats in the club at 3 AM stands no chance of success. Similarly, suspect claims of honesty or authenticity in business will likely be heavily discounted as cheap talk by a skeptical counterpart. So why make these overtures? Because while the upside is limited, the cost isn’t just cheap, it’s nil; give it a try and hope there’s someone out there who’ll believe you. The challenge facing sellers of some genuine product — be it true late-night love or a Tiffany necklace on eBay — and the buyers in search of them is to prove that they’re not just full of empty words. This is where Super Bowl ads come in. Airtime during the game is, of course, fantastically expensive. So why do companies bother buying it? For the same reason that gang members get face tattoos: to prove that they’re in it for the long haul. The classic formulation of this idea comes from Michael Spence’s PhD thesis, published in 1973, which helped win him a Nobel prize, in 2001. The thesis focused not on clubs or ads, but on how good workers reveal themselves as smart or dependable. In Spence’s formulation, hiring a worker is essentially a spin of the roulette wheel: Depending on what comes up, you might get a conscientious, productive worker or an incompetent, shirking one. There are plenty of steps that employers can and do take to make the hiring decision less of a gamble. They may consider, consciously or not, whether the applicant is short or tall, black or white, male or female. Based on prior experiences or stereotypes they’ve formed, recruiters may make a judgment of what the applicant would probably be like once he starts showing up for work. Whether it’s legal or moral (or even correct), we judge people based on all sorts of characteristics that a person is essentially born into. Then there are the choices we make in presenting ourselves to a prospective employer: Short or tall, black or white, male or female, you need to decide whether to wear a suit or jeans, or to show up clean-cut or shaggy, or covered in tattoos. On your résumé you can choose to offer up your undergraduate GPA, and mention that it was from an Ivy League institution, or you can avoid saying much of anything about your education. You might counter that lots of these aren’t exactly choices: Harvard chooses you, not the other way around. That’s correct, sort of. But think of it this way: The cost of adding a credential to your résumé or presenting yourself in a particular way at an interview is higher for some applicants than for others. In a sense, the “cost” for many of getting into Harvard and making it to graduation is just not within the realm of possibility. But for the candidate with the right characteristics – drive, conscientiousness, intelligence — it may not be that difficult to apply, get in, and coast through whatever the Harvard curriculum might throw at them. In Spence’s model, the attributes that make it relatively easy to get a Harvard degree are the same characteristics that make for a productive employee. If that’s the case, then companies will do well to hire Harvard math majors, even if no one learns anything of practical use, or even any math, at Harvard. In contrast to telling a recruiter, “I’m smart,” a Harvard math degree is not something that less-able applicants can mimic or would even want to, because the cost is too great. It is a “signal,” in economics parlance. Stripped to its essentials, the Spence signaling model simply requires that there be a link between a desirable yet hidden attribute and the cost of doing something. And that something can be anything, as long as everyone knows it’s cheap for the smart and virtuous to do it, and difficult for anyone else. For companies, one way of sending a strong signal of commitment to the long run would be to convert the company’s savings into hard currency, cart it out to the street, and put a lit match to it. Only a company that expects to do repeat business with lots of customers is going to be willing to pay this up front “money-burning” cost. If we don’t see many companies lighting cash-fueled bonfires, economists have argued they do the equivalent — both more credibly and more publicly — through advertising. In a classic article on advertising as money burning, “Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality,” economists Paul Milgrom and John Roberts describe a 1983 ad announcing the introduction of Diet Coke: “a large concert hall full of people, a long chorus line kicking, a remarkable number of (high-priced) celebrities over whom the camera pans, and a simple announcement that Diet Coke is the reason for this assemblage.” They also give the example of an even more literal take on advertising-as-pointless-destruction in a Ford Ranger ad from 1984 that “features these trucks being thrown out of airplanes (followed by a half dozen skydivers) or driven off high cliffs.” In both cases the ad is a deliberate act of pointless excess and waste — money burning. Milgrom and Roberts, in substantiating their analysis of product launch ads as money burning, observe, “These ads carry little or no direct information other than that the product in question exists. But if that is the message being sent, these ads seem an inordinately expensive way to transmit the information. Indeed, the clearest message they carry is, ‘We are spending an astronomical amount of money on this ad campaign.’” The lavish destruction of value is the only way the signal can’t be copied by someone who doesn’t really have the money to burn. Signaling can produce perverse incentives that can cause those without the hidden quality to try to fake it. That might help explain why, in the year 2000, 19 internet startups spent millions buying advertising time during the Super Bowl. It’s also telling that eight of the 19 — including, famously, Pets.com, with its sock puppet mascot — no longer exist. Ironically, their efforts to signal they had the deep pockets and quality offerings that would allow them to survive the internet’s winner-take-all economy may have helped to drive these big spenders into bankruptcy. You might think that such a failure rate would discourage a repeat, but the trend continues: During the 2015 Super Bowl, startups including Wix.com (a company that helps users build websites) and Loctite (a glue maker) spent $4.5 million each for a 30-second spot. This year, the price has gone up to $5 million. Signaling is a useful theory for helping us understand why getting a face tattoo is a great decision if you want to show everyone — your rivals, the police, potential employers — that you’ve thrown your lot in with your gang forever. But it’s harder to come up with a signal of your own to show some hidden, but valuable, quality. And even if you have the ingenuity to figure out a strong signal, like Ford burning money on an ad buy, you have to have customers who are smart enough to understand what, by driving a bunch of trucks off a cliff, you’re trying to tell them.

30 января, 04:27

Лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Майкл Спенс: «Один Пояс, один Путь» стимулирует рост мировой экономики

«Китайская инициатива “Один пояс, один путь”, создание Азиатского банка инфраструктурных инвестиций (АБИИ) и другие действия стимулируют рост мировой экономики» - сказал на днях известный американский экономист, лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Майкл Спенс.

28 января, 19:38

Текст: Четыре признака экономики популизма ( MICHAEL SPENCE )

Для успешной экономической глобализации необходимы достаточно успешные модели роста в отдельных странах. Такая динамика была характерна примерно для первых 30 лет после Второй мировой войны: темпы роста были сравнительно высокими в самых разных странах; выгоды этого роста широко распределялись внутри этих стран; при этом подъём развивающихся стран приводил к снижению уровня глобального неравенства. Этот период, наверное, можно назвать лучшими днями глобализации. Конечно, глобализация продолжалась и в 1970-е годы, и далее. Но лежащие в её основе модели роста изменились. Из-за арбитражных операций на рынке труда, ставших неотъемлемым компонентом экономической глобализации, а также из-за развития революционных цифровых технологий, рабочие места в промышленности, которые в ...

28 января, 04:14

Weekend Roundup: A New 'Nationalist International' Challenges The Old Globalization

No sooner did “the party of Davos” ― as top White House aide Stephen Bannon calls the global elite ― end its annual conclave in the Swiss Alps late last week than the “Nationalist International” was born down in the Rhine Valley city of Koblenz, Germany. All the main populist movements from across Europe gathered together there to celebrate the Brexit and Trump victories as a premonition of their own expected success in elections over the coming year. They called on their fellow Europeans to “wake up” like the Americans and British and take back control of their national destinies.  What animates these movements for national sovereignty, and paradoxically ties them together across borders, is a double antipathy. Their revolt is against both the faceless forces of global integration represented by trade agreements or Brussels “Eurocrats” and the face-to-face presence of immigrants whom they see as despoiling their own national identities. Scott Malcomson insightfully points out that these movements in Europe see their cultural nationalism not as intolerance of others, but as a defense of diversity in the form of their unique, familiar and cherished way of life they now see as under assault. In their conflated anxieties over Muslim immigrants and terrorism, which they share with President Donald Trump and his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, populists are demonstrating what political scientist Samuel Huntington said after the 9/11 attack by Osama bin Laden about that terrorist leader: “Just as he seeks to rally Muslims by declaring war on the West, he has given back to the West its sense of common identity in defending itself.”  More so than in the U.S., the European nationalist’s idea of belonging bears some very worrying baggage. As novelist Elif Shafak says in an interview with The WorldPost, “I am far more concerned about the rise of populism across Europe than the rise of populism in the U.S. Here in the old continent, there is almost a visceral fear of diversity and ‘the other.’” She goes on to say that, “we need to bear in mind that this history is still alive in a fractured, fragmented and uneven continent where we do not always encounter the checks and balances that exist in the U.S. Constitution.” Mimicking the cry of the Koblenz meeting, Shafak concludes, “So, yes, it is a ‘wake up’ call. But not for the tribalists. It is a wake-up call for democrats and liberals and cosmopolitans, for anyone and everyone who holds democracy and pluralism dear. It is a wake-up call for us.” As Nick Visser reports, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing back against the nationalist upsurge. Speaking to church leaders in Germany on Monday, she declared, “We won’t get anywhere by trying to solve problems with polarization and populism. We’ve got to show that we’re committed to the basic principles of our nation.” Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says he thinks it is Germany’s insistence on Europe-wide austerity policies that are at the root of the problem. To defeat the nationalist resurgence he proposes a “New Deal” for Europe that is an alternative to those policies which he sees as a, “gift to today’s coalition of European right-wing parties called the ‘Nationalist International.’” He continues: “Europe can survive neither as a free-for-all nor as an Austerity Union in which some countries ... are condemned to permanent depression.”  President Trump this week also took the first steps toward fulfilling his campaign promise of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border and proposed cuts in federal funding for “sanctuary cities” across the U.S. On Thursday, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto insisted once again that Mexico would not pay for a border wall ― which he said undermined the “respect” of his “sovereign nation”― and cancelled his upcoming trip to Washington. The two have since spoken by phone.  Former Mexican president and chair of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council, Ernesto Zedillo, goes further. He said to me this week that Trump’s proposals toward his country have “defied legal and economic rationality” from the start and that now, “the time has come to admit that the actions of the new administration have cancelled, at least for the foreseeable future, any agreement stemming from dialogue and negotiation that could satisfy the legitimate interests of both parties.” Labelling the American president’s actions “aggression,” Zedillo joins the rallying cry of his countrymen: “What we reject under any circumstances is any attempt to use a single inch of our territory to build such an abominable structure. It goes without saying that all Mexicans are behind President Peña Nieto when he tells President Trump that we will not pay for his extravagant, offensive and useless project.” In addition to his directives on Mexico, the American president also delivered on his pledge to limit Muslims entering the U.S., signing a document late Friday whose full details still remain unclear at the time of this article’s publish. Charles Kurzman argues that the the proposed limits are “absurd” and counterproductive. It is the strategy of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, he writes “to take advantage of the West’s hypersensitivity to small scale Islamist attacks.” He continues: “Since 2001, there have been zero fatalities in the U.S. by extremists from the countries on Trump’s list.” As Trump crosses off executive order after executive order and as Syria talks sideline America yet again, many wonder if the U.S. president will go easy on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders are slated to speak this weekend, but already, Ukrainians are on edge. From Kiev, just days after Trump’s inauguration, Ian Bateson reports that many there fear the special relationship between Putin and Trump could leave Ukraine in the cold. “We have seen the rhetoric. Now we are waiting for performance,” one politician says.  Back in America, millions of demonstrators took to the streets across the U.S. and elsewhere to protest Trump’s policies even before executive orders had been signed. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz, who participated in the Washington march, sees a correspondence with resistance in her home country and other countries across the world. “Women (and men) share the same concerns about gender inequality and sexual harassment,” she writes, “regardless of if they live middle class lives in Manhattan or face discrimination on the subways of Istanbul.” Aykan Erdemir and Merve Tahiroglu score new moves by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to consolidate executive power. “An overly centralized polity, a weak legislature and Erdogan’s authoritarianism have brought Turkey to the brink,” they write.  Also reflecting on the massive demonstrations, Margaret Levi reviews the experience of how social movements in American history have ultimately shifted the political agenda. These photos document the scope of demonstration that took place last weekend around the world. Hayley Miller reports that despite the Trump administration’s renewed focus on fossil fuels, a new Pew poll says two-thirds of Americans favor a path to a renewable energy future.  Writing from Hong Kong, Li Jing reports that Chinese officials say they are prepared “to take a leadership role” in defending the Paris climate accord no matter what the new Trump administration decides to do. Following the splash of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s defense of globalization in Davos last week, Minxin Pei sees trouble for him at home as adversaries resist his anti-corruption crackdown and economic reform agenda. “2017 will be a dangerous year for Xi,” he says. In South Africa, in fact, attempts to model government off of China have already created tension among political parties, explain Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden, with one mayor taking a controversial trip to Taiwan, sparking a Trump-esque “one China” policy violation backlash.  Looking to the far future, Deep Space advocate Mary Lynne Dittmar imagines how a full-fledged effort to settle on Mars can help us in our troubled home planet. “Why Mars?” she asks, “Why not the Moon? Simply put, Mars is the best place to develop a ‘local’ infrastructure enabling us to live on another planet, albeit one millions of miles away. In a very real sense Mars is at the far end of the infrastructure we are preparing to revitalize in this country.”  Finally, our Singularity series looks at the moral dilemmas posed by new advances in genetic screening that further enable “designer babies” whose characteristics can be selected. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor.   EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

28 января, 04:14

Weekend Roundup: A New 'Nationalist International' Challenges The Old Globalization

No sooner did “the party of Davos” ― as top White House aide Stephen Bannon calls the global elite ― end its annual conclave in the Swiss Alps late last week than the “Nationalist International” was born down in the Rhine Valley city of Koblenz, Germany. All the main populist movements from across Europe gathered together there to celebrate the Brexit and Trump victories as a premonition of their own expected success in elections over the coming year. They called on their fellow Europeans to “wake up” like the Americans and British and take back control of their national destinies.  What animates these movements for national sovereignty, and paradoxically ties them together across borders, is a double antipathy. Their revolt is against both the faceless forces of global integration represented by trade agreements or Brussels “Eurocrats” and the face-to-face presence of immigrants whom they see as despoiling their own national identities. Scott Malcomson insightfully points out that these movements in Europe see their cultural nationalism not as intolerance of others, but as a defense of diversity in the form of their unique, familiar and cherished way of life they now see as under assault. In their conflated anxieties over Muslim immigrants and terrorism, which they share with President Donald Trump and his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, populists are demonstrating what political scientist Samuel Huntington said after the 9/11 attack by Osama bin Laden about that terrorist leader: “Just as he seeks to rally Muslims by declaring war on the West, he has given back to the West its sense of common identity in defending itself.”  More so than in the U.S., the European nationalist’s idea of belonging bears some very worrying baggage. As novelist Elif Shafak says in an interview with The WorldPost, “I am far more concerned about the rise of populism across Europe than the rise of populism in the U.S. Here in the old continent, there is almost a visceral fear of diversity and ‘the other.’” She goes on to say that, “we need to bear in mind that this history is still alive in a fractured, fragmented and uneven continent where we do not always encounter the checks and balances that exist in the U.S. Constitution.” Mimicking the cry of the Koblenz meeting, Shafak concludes, “So, yes, it is a ‘wake up’ call. But not for the tribalists. It is a wake-up call for democrats and liberals and cosmopolitans, for anyone and everyone who holds democracy and pluralism dear. It is a wake-up call for us.” As Nick Visser reports, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing back against the nationalist upsurge. Speaking to church leaders in Germany on Monday, she declared, “We won’t get anywhere by trying to solve problems with polarization and populism. We’ve got to show that we’re committed to the basic principles of our nation.” Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says he thinks it is Germany’s insistence on Europe-wide austerity policies that are at the root of the problem. To defeat the nationalist resurgence he proposes a “New Deal” for Europe that is an alternative to those policies which he sees as a, “gift to today’s coalition of European right-wing parties called the ‘Nationalist International.’” He continues: “Europe can survive neither as a free-for-all nor as an Austerity Union in which some countries ... are condemned to permanent depression.”  President Trump this week also took the first steps toward fulfilling his campaign promise of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border and proposed cuts in federal funding for “sanctuary cities” across the U.S. On Thursday, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto insisted once again that Mexico would not pay for a border wall ― which he said undermined the “respect” of his “sovereign nation”― and cancelled his upcoming trip to Washington. The two have since spoken by phone.  Former Mexican president and chair of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council, Ernesto Zedillo, goes further. He said to me this week that Trump’s proposals toward his country have “defied legal and economic rationality” from the start and that now, “the time has come to admit that the actions of the new administration have cancelled, at least for the foreseeable future, any agreement stemming from dialogue and negotiation that could satisfy the legitimate interests of both parties.” Labelling the American president’s actions “aggression,” Zedillo joins the rallying cry of his countrymen: “What we reject under any circumstances is any attempt to use a single inch of our territory to build such an abominable structure. It goes without saying that all Mexicans are behind President Peña Nieto when he tells President Trump that we will not pay for his extravagant, offensive and useless project.” In addition to his directives on Mexico, the American president also delivered on his pledge to limit Muslims entering the U.S., signing a document late Friday whose full details still remain unclear at the time of this article’s publish. Charles Kurzman argues that the the proposed limits are “absurd” and counterproductive. It is the strategy of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, he writes “to take advantage of the West’s hypersensitivity to small scale Islamist attacks.” He continues: “Since 2001, there have been zero fatalities in the U.S. by extremists from the countries on Trump’s list.” As Trump crosses off executive order after executive order and as Syria talks sideline America yet again, many wonder if the U.S. president will go easy on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders are slated to speak this weekend, but already, Ukrainians are on edge. From Kiev, just days after Trump’s inauguration, Ian Bateson reports that many there fear the special relationship between Putin and Trump could leave Ukraine in the cold. “We have seen the rhetoric. Now we are waiting for performance,” one politician says.  Back in America, millions of demonstrators took to the streets across the U.S. and elsewhere to protest Trump’s policies even before executive orders had been signed. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz, who participated in the Washington march, sees a correspondence with resistance in her home country and other countries across the world. “Women (and men) share the same concerns about gender inequality and sexual harassment,” she writes, “regardless of if they live middle class lives in Manhattan or face discrimination on the subways of Istanbul.” Aykan Erdemir and Merve Tahiroglu score new moves by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to consolidate executive power. “An overly centralized polity, a weak legislature and Erdogan’s authoritarianism have brought Turkey to the brink,” they write.  Also reflecting on the massive demonstrations, Margaret Levi reviews the experience of how social movements in American history have ultimately shifted the political agenda. These photos document the scope of demonstration that took place last weekend around the world. Hayley Miller reports that despite the Trump administration’s renewed focus on fossil fuels, a new Pew poll says two-thirds of Americans favor a path to a renewable energy future.  Writing from Hong Kong, Li Jing reports that Chinese officials say they are prepared “to take a leadership role” in defending the Paris climate accord no matter what the new Trump administration decides to do. Following the splash of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s defense of globalization in Davos last week, Minxin Pei sees trouble for him at home as adversaries resist his anti-corruption crackdown and economic reform agenda. “2017 will be a dangerous year for Xi,” he says. In South Africa, in fact, attempts to model government off of China have already created tension among political parties, explain Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden, with one mayor taking a controversial trip to Taiwan, sparking a Trump-esque “one China” policy violation backlash.  Looking to the far future, Deep Space advocate Mary Lynne Dittmar imagines how a full-fledged effort to settle on Mars can help us in our troubled home planet. “Why Mars?” she asks, “Why not the Moon? Simply put, Mars is the best place to develop a ‘local’ infrastructure enabling us to live on another planet, albeit one millions of miles away. In a very real sense Mars is at the far end of the infrastructure we are preparing to revitalize in this country.”  Finally, our Singularity series looks at the moral dilemmas posed by new advances in genetic screening that further enable “designer babies” whose characteristics can be selected. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor.   EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

25 января, 12:45

Заседание попечительского совета МГУ

Под председательством Владимира Путина прошло заседание попечительского совета Московского государственного университета имени М.В.Ломоносова.

07 января, 03:11

Weekend Roundup: America’s Crisis Of Social Intelligence

If the recent U.S. presidential election campaign was about defining American reality, little has been decided. The ongoing inability to arrive at a shared worldview or even to agree on basic facts, abetted by a media that thrives on adversity to monetize attention, is deadly for the discourse in any democracy. This crisis of social intelligence in which the perception of reality is unmoored from objective observation is even more consequential than the highly damaging quarrel between the official U.S. intelligence agencies and President-elect Donald Trump over Russian influence meddling. But the two are linked. None of the intelligence professionals I know would ever consider themselves infallible. Yet they do strive mightily to establish the facts and resist partisan pressures to slant their findings. Professional intelligence analysis seeks to root out false signals, disinformation, unfounded rumor and subjective opinion. It is, in effect, the opposite of peer-driven social media which now has the most influence over American hearts and minds including, apparently, over the incoming commander-in-chief. While the joint report on the Russian hacks released last week by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security was scored by some as less than conclusive, former NATO commander James Stavridis and cybersecurity expert Dave Weinstein believe it was highly effective. “Publicly laying this level of detail out sets a dramatic precedent that could serve a significant blow to Russia’s current and future cyberoperations in the U.S. and elsewhere,” they write. “The technical details of the report constitute an intelligence windfall for ordinary network defenders who have been starving for rich real-time threat information from the federal government to protect their systems against sophisticated actors.” A further report released Friday by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Russia aimed “to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency” and that “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.” Writing from Moscow, Maria Snegovaya reports that most commentators there have greeted President Barack Obama’s recently announced sanctions in response to Russian hacking with “mockery and derision.” Official Russia, she says, has offered the usual retort: deny then distort.  If identifying and shutting down hackers has become a key task of intelligence agencies in these cyber times, the new challenge for education is to provide young people with the tools of social intelligence so they can tell fact from fabrication on social media. Stanford professor Sam Wineburg lays out the steps educators need to take to help students discern what is fake news or not. “The tools we’ve invented are handling us,“ he says, “not the other way around.” Teacher Lynn Kelley tells her students they fall victim to fake news when they lack the critical distance to be aware of their own biases and assumptions or when they are unable to evaluate claims without the relevant historical knowledge. Natalie Jackson reports on a poll that says most Americans think tweets are not the way a president should communicate.  The scientific consensus on climate change is perhaps the most contested fact by the new powers to be in Washington. These stunning motion graphics compiled by James Warner illustrate the toll a warming climate took on the planet in 2016. Dominique Mosbergen reports that, indeed, 2016 was the hottest year on record.  Nicolas Berggruen and I suggest how the incoming U.S. administration can promote renewable energy while creating jobs and security for Americans by jointly investing with China and Mexico in the infrastructure of a “solar border” instead of a wall. Guy Standing argues that a universal basic income would be a bulwark against far-right populism because it provides a secure economic base in people’s lives. “The response to these darkening times,” he writes, “must be to devise and rally support for a new income distribution system.” In other global developments, yet another terror attack hit Istanbul on New Year’s Eve at a fashionable nightclub on the banks of the Bosphorus. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz reports that, despite the aims of the terrorists, the responses to the attack are serving to unite a divided country. Mercy Corps’ Michael Bowers looks ahead to the humanitarian crises that should garner more attention in 2017 – in Yemen, South Sudan and Lake Chad. Ali Rodriguez reports that the economic situation has become so dire in Venezuela that even talented artists committed to the opposition can’t afford to stay and are fleeing. Former Iranian National Security Council member Seyed Hossein Mousavian sees the potential for hope in the incoming U.S. administration. “While it might sound counterintuitive,” he writes, “Republican control of Congress and the presidency presents an opportunity for successful U.S.- Iran diplomacy. The U.S. government is now able to act in unison, enabling for novel approaches towards the region that may have previously been politically impossible.” In his piece, Mousavian also lists what he believes President-elect Donald Trump should know about Iran. One point is that America’s military presence in the Middle East has created instability there. Interestingly, while chaos gripping much of the Mideast is leading to disengagement by world powers, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden explore why China is actually looking to invest more in the region. In recent years, China was also always the poster child for the worst pollution in the world that came along with rapid growth. Now that China is trying to clean up its act, and India has joined the club of rapid growth, it is facing its own challenges. Bhargav Krishna writes from New Delhi that, “India’s under-funded public health system is straining to cope with the increasing burden of pollution-driven illnesses.” Writing from Hong Kong Wang Xiangwei reports that President Xi Jinping, recently donned “a core leader,” denounced resistance to his reforms by local officials at a Politburo meeting this week after which his comments were splashed across national media. Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei argues that, despite Brexit and the Trump election, globalization is not doomed; it is just shifting East with China in a leading position. Taking a comprehensive strategic view of world events, Zbigniew Brzezinski proposes that the only effective response to the present crisis of global power is trilateral cooperation among the U.S., China and Russia. He warns that, “The U.S. should not act towards China as if it were already an enemy; significantly, it should not favor India as America’s principal ally in Asia. This would almost guarantee a closer connection between China and Russia. Nothing is more dangerous to the U.S. than such a close connection.” Our Singularity series this week looks at the technological developments to watch in 2017 – artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, decentralized peer-to-peer networks, biosynthetic labs and autonomous vehicles. Finally, our latest column by the Future of Life Institute reminds us that, in many ways, 2016 was a year of hope with advances in AI and health as well as new moves to reduce the global number of nuclear weapons. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 января, 03:11

Weekend Roundup: America’s Crisis Of Social Intelligence

If the recent U.S. presidential election campaign was about defining American reality, little has been decided. The ongoing inability to arrive at a shared worldview or even to agree on basic facts, abetted by a media that thrives on adversity to monetize attention, is deadly for the discourse in any democracy. This crisis of social intelligence in which the perception of reality is unmoored from objective observation is even more consequential than the highly damaging quarrel between the official U.S. intelligence agencies and President-elect Donald Trump over Russian influence meddling. But the two are linked. None of the intelligence professionals I know would ever consider themselves infallible. Yet they do strive mightily to establish the facts and resist partisan pressures to slant their findings. Professional intelligence analysis seeks to root out false signals, disinformation, unfounded rumor and subjective opinion. It is, in effect, the opposite of peer-driven social media which now has the most influence over American hearts and minds including, apparently, over the incoming commander-in-chief. While the joint report on the Russian hacks released last week by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security was scored by some as less than conclusive, former NATO commander James Stavridis and cybersecurity expert Dave Weinstein believe it was highly effective. “Publicly laying this level of detail out sets a dramatic precedent that could serve a significant blow to Russia’s current and future cyberoperations in the U.S. and elsewhere,” they write. “The technical details of the report constitute an intelligence windfall for ordinary network defenders who have been starving for rich real-time threat information from the federal government to protect their systems against sophisticated actors.” A further report released Friday by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Russia aimed “to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency” and that “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.” Writing from Moscow, Maria Snegovaya reports that most commentators there have greeted President Barack Obama’s recently announced sanctions in response to Russian hacking with “mockery and derision.” Official Russia, she says, has offered the usual retort: deny then distort.  If identifying and shutting down hackers has become a key task of intelligence agencies in these cyber times, the new challenge for education is to provide young people with the tools of social intelligence so they can tell fact from fabrication on social media. Stanford professor Sam Wineburg lays out the steps educators need to take to help students discern what is fake news or not. “The tools we’ve invented are handling us,“ he says, “not the other way around.” Teacher Lynn Kelley tells her students they fall victim to fake news when they lack the critical distance to be aware of their own biases and assumptions or when they are unable to evaluate claims without the relevant historical knowledge. Natalie Jackson reports on a poll that says most American’s think tweets are not the way a president should communicate.  The scientific consensus on climate change is perhaps the most contested fact by the new powers to be in Washington. These stunning motion graphics compiled by James Warner illustrate the toll a warming climate took on the planet in 2016. Dominique Mosbergen reports that, indeed, 2016 was the hottest year on record.  Nicolas Berggruen and I suggest how the incoming U.S. administration can promote renewable energy while creating jobs and security for Americans by jointly investing with China and Mexico in the infrastructure of a “solar border” instead of a wall. Guy Standing argues that a universal basic income would be a bulwark against far-right populism because it provides a secure economic base in people’s lives. “The response to these darkening times,” he writes, “must be to devise and rally support for a new income distribution system.” In other global developments, yet another terror attack hit Istanbul on New Year’s Eve at a fashionable nightclub on the banks of the Bosphorus. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz reports that, despite the aims of the terrorists, the responses to the attack are serving to unite a divided country. Mercy Corps’ Michael Bowers looks ahead to the humanitarian crises that should garner more attention in 2017 – in Yemen, South Sudan and Lake Chad. Ali Rodriguez reports that the economic situation has become so dire in Venezuela that even talented artists committed to the opposition can’t afford to stay and are fleeing. Former Iranian National Security Council member Seyed Hossein Mousavian sees the potential for hope in the incoming U.S. administration. “While it might sound counterintuitive,” he writes, “Republican control of Congress and the presidency presents an opportunity for successful U.S.- Iran diplomacy. The U.S. government is now able to act in unison, enabling for novel approaches towards the region that may have previously been politically impossible.” In his piece, Mousavian also lists what he believes President-elect Donald Trump should know about Iran. One point is that America’s military presence in the Middle East has created instability there. Interestingly, while chaos gripping much of the Mideast is leading to disengagement by world powers, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden explore why China is actually looking to invest more in the region. In recent years, China was also always the poster child for the worst pollution in the world that came along with rapid growth. Now that China is trying to clean up its act, and India has joined the club of rapid growth, it is facing its own challenges. Bhargav Krishna writes from New Delhi that, “India’s under-funded public health system is straining to cope with the increasing burden of pollution-driven illnesses.” Writing from Hong Kong Wang Xiangwei reports that President Xi Jinping, recently donned “a core leader,” denounced resistance to his reforms by local officials at a Politburo meeting this week after which his comments were splashed across national media. Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei argues that, despite Brexit and the Trump election, globalization is not doomed; it is just shifting East with China in a leading position. Taking a comprehensive strategic view of world events, Zbigniew Brzezinski proposes that the only effective response to the present crisis of global power is trilateral cooperation among the U.S., China and Russia. He warns that, “The U.S. should not act towards China as if it were already an enemy; significantly, it should not favor India as America’s principal ally in Asia. This would almost guarantee a closer connection between China and Russia. Nothing is more dangerous to the U.S. than such a close connection.” Our Singularity series this week looks at the technological developments to watch in 2017 – artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, decentralized peer-to-peer networks, biosynthetic labs and autonomous vehicles. Finally, our latest column by the Future of Life Institute reminds us that, in many ways, 2016 was a year of hope with advances in AI and health as well as new moves to reduce the global number of nuclear weapons. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

05 мая 2016, 01:03

Гросс: роботизация приведет к "социализму поневоле"

Билл Гросс, один из самых успешных управляющих за всю историю современных рынков облигаций, считает, что власти западных стран в дальнейшем будут вынуждены все активнее печатать деньги для поддержки своих экономик и населения.