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17 февраля, 20:31

Без заголовка

**Should-Read: Wing Thye Woo**: _[China’s Growth Odyssey][]_: "Former World Bank Chief Economist Justin Yifu Lin is sanguine... [China’s Growth Odyssey]: https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/china-s-growth-odyssey-2017-02 >...Lin is confident that policies to boost domestic demand – including “improvements in infrastructure, urbanization efforts, environmental management, and high-tech industries” – will prove sufficient to meet the government’s...

03 февраля, 21:52

A Super Bowl Ad Is the Equivalent of Lighting Money on Fire (Which Can Be More Strategic Than It Sounds)

Everyone knows that whispering “I love you” to someone you just met over some bangin’ beats in the club at 3 AM stands no chance of success. Similarly, suspect claims of honesty or authenticity in business will likely be heavily discounted as cheap talk by a skeptical counterpart. So why make these overtures? Because while the upside is limited, the cost isn’t just cheap, it’s nil; give it a try and hope there’s someone out there who’ll believe you. The challenge facing sellers of some genuine product — be it true late-night love or a Tiffany necklace on eBay — and the buyers in search of them is to prove that they’re not just full of empty words. This is where Super Bowl ads come in. Airtime during the game is, of course, fantastically expensive. So why do companies bother buying it? For the same reason that gang members get face tattoos: to prove that they’re in it for the long haul. The classic formulation of this idea comes from Michael Spence’s PhD thesis, published in 1973, which helped win him a Nobel prize, in 2001. The thesis focused not on clubs or ads, but on how good workers reveal themselves as smart or dependable. In Spence’s formulation, hiring a worker is essentially a spin of the roulette wheel: Depending on what comes up, you might get a conscientious, productive worker or an incompetent, shirking one. There are plenty of steps that employers can and do take to make the hiring decision less of a gamble. They may consider, consciously or not, whether the applicant is short or tall, black or white, male or female. Based on prior experiences or stereotypes they’ve formed, recruiters may make a judgment of what the applicant would probably be like once he starts showing up for work. Whether it’s legal or moral (or even correct), we judge people based on all sorts of characteristics that a person is essentially born into. Then there are the choices we make in presenting ourselves to a prospective employer: Short or tall, black or white, male or female, you need to decide whether to wear a suit or jeans, or to show up clean-cut or shaggy, or covered in tattoos. On your résumé you can choose to offer up your undergraduate GPA, and mention that it was from an Ivy League institution, or you can avoid saying much of anything about your education. You might counter that lots of these aren’t exactly choices: Harvard chooses you, not the other way around. That’s correct, sort of. But think of it this way: The cost of adding a credential to your résumé or presenting yourself in a particular way at an interview is higher for some applicants than for others. In a sense, the “cost” for many of getting into Harvard and making it to graduation is just not within the realm of possibility. But for the candidate with the right characteristics – drive, conscientiousness, intelligence — it may not be that difficult to apply, get in, and coast through whatever the Harvard curriculum might throw at them. In Spence’s model, the attributes that make it relatively easy to get a Harvard degree are the same characteristics that make for a productive employee. If that’s the case, then companies will do well to hire Harvard math majors, even if no one learns anything of practical use, or even any math, at Harvard. In contrast to telling a recruiter, “I’m smart,” a Harvard math degree is not something that less-able applicants can mimic or would even want to, because the cost is too great. It is a “signal,” in economics parlance. Stripped to its essentials, the Spence signaling model simply requires that there be a link between a desirable yet hidden attribute and the cost of doing something. And that something can be anything, as long as everyone knows it’s cheap for the smart and virtuous to do it, and difficult for anyone else. For companies, one way of sending a strong signal of commitment to the long run would be to convert the company’s savings into hard currency, cart it out to the street, and put a lit match to it. Only a company that expects to do repeat business with lots of customers is going to be willing to pay this up front “money-burning” cost. If we don’t see many companies lighting cash-fueled bonfires, economists have argued they do the equivalent — both more credibly and more publicly — through advertising. In a classic article on advertising as money burning, “Price and Advertising Signals of Product Quality,” economists Paul Milgrom and John Roberts describe a 1983 ad announcing the introduction of Diet Coke: “a large concert hall full of people, a long chorus line kicking, a remarkable number of (high-priced) celebrities over whom the camera pans, and a simple announcement that Diet Coke is the reason for this assemblage.” They also give the example of an even more literal take on advertising-as-pointless-destruction in a Ford Ranger ad from 1984 that “features these trucks being thrown out of airplanes (followed by a half dozen skydivers) or driven off high cliffs.” In both cases the ad is a deliberate act of pointless excess and waste — money burning. Milgrom and Roberts, in substantiating their analysis of product launch ads as money burning, observe, “These ads carry little or no direct information other than that the product in question exists. But if that is the message being sent, these ads seem an inordinately expensive way to transmit the information. Indeed, the clearest message they carry is, ‘We are spending an astronomical amount of money on this ad campaign.’” The lavish destruction of value is the only way the signal can’t be copied by someone who doesn’t really have the money to burn. Signaling can produce perverse incentives that can cause those without the hidden quality to try to fake it. That might help explain why, in the year 2000, 19 internet startups spent millions buying advertising time during the Super Bowl. It’s also telling that eight of the 19 — including, famously, Pets.com, with its sock puppet mascot — no longer exist. Ironically, their efforts to signal they had the deep pockets and quality offerings that would allow them to survive the internet’s winner-take-all economy may have helped to drive these big spenders into bankruptcy. You might think that such a failure rate would discourage a repeat, but the trend continues: During the 2015 Super Bowl, startups including Wix.com (a company that helps users build websites) and Loctite (a glue maker) spent $4.5 million each for a 30-second spot. This year, the price has gone up to $5 million. Signaling is a useful theory for helping us understand why getting a face tattoo is a great decision if you want to show everyone — your rivals, the police, potential employers — that you’ve thrown your lot in with your gang forever. But it’s harder to come up with a signal of your own to show some hidden, but valuable, quality. And even if you have the ingenuity to figure out a strong signal, like Ford burning money on an ad buy, you have to have customers who are smart enough to understand what, by driving a bunch of trucks off a cliff, you’re trying to tell them.

30 января, 04:27

Лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Майкл Спенс: «Один Пояс, один Путь» стимулирует рост мировой экономики

«Китайская инициатива “Один пояс, один путь”, создание Азиатского банка инфраструктурных инвестиций (АБИИ) и другие действия стимулируют рост мировой экономики» - сказал на днях известный американский экономист, лауреат Нобелевской премии по экономике Майкл Спенс.

28 января, 19:38

Текст: Четыре признака экономики популизма ( MICHAEL SPENCE )

Для успешной экономической глобализации необходимы достаточно успешные модели роста в отдельных странах. Такая динамика была характерна примерно для первых 30 лет после Второй мировой войны: темпы роста были сравнительно высокими в самых разных странах; выгоды этого роста широко распределялись внутри этих стран; при этом подъём развивающихся стран приводил к снижению уровня глобального неравенства. Этот период, наверное, можно назвать лучшими днями глобализации. Конечно, глобализация продолжалась и в 1970-е годы, и далее. Но лежащие в её основе модели роста изменились. Из-за арбитражных операций на рынке труда, ставших неотъемлемым компонентом экономической глобализации, а также из-за развития революционных цифровых технологий, рабочие места в промышленности, которые в ...

28 января, 04:14

Weekend Roundup: A New 'Nationalist International' Challenges The Old Globalization

No sooner did “the party of Davos” ― as top White House aide Stephen Bannon calls the global elite ― end its annual conclave in the Swiss Alps late last week than the “Nationalist International” was born down in the Rhine Valley city of Koblenz, Germany. All the main populist movements from across Europe gathered together there to celebrate the Brexit and Trump victories as a premonition of their own expected success in elections over the coming year. They called on their fellow Europeans to “wake up” like the Americans and British and take back control of their national destinies.  What animates these movements for national sovereignty, and paradoxically ties them together across borders, is a double antipathy. Their revolt is against both the faceless forces of global integration represented by trade agreements or Brussels “Eurocrats” and the face-to-face presence of immigrants whom they see as despoiling their own national identities. Scott Malcomson insightfully points out that these movements in Europe see their cultural nationalism not as intolerance of others, but as a defense of diversity in the form of their unique, familiar and cherished way of life they now see as under assault. In their conflated anxieties over Muslim immigrants and terrorism, which they share with President Donald Trump and his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, populists are demonstrating what political scientist Samuel Huntington said after the 9/11 attack by Osama bin Laden about that terrorist leader: “Just as he seeks to rally Muslims by declaring war on the West, he has given back to the West its sense of common identity in defending itself.”  More so than in the U.S., the European nationalist’s idea of belonging bears some very worrying baggage. As novelist Elif Shafak says in an interview with The WorldPost, “I am far more concerned about the rise of populism across Europe than the rise of populism in the U.S. Here in the old continent, there is almost a visceral fear of diversity and ‘the other.’” She goes on to say that, “we need to bear in mind that this history is still alive in a fractured, fragmented and uneven continent where we do not always encounter the checks and balances that exist in the U.S. Constitution.” Mimicking the cry of the Koblenz meeting, Shafak concludes, “So, yes, it is a ‘wake up’ call. But not for the tribalists. It is a wake-up call for democrats and liberals and cosmopolitans, for anyone and everyone who holds democracy and pluralism dear. It is a wake-up call for us.” As Nick Visser reports, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing back against the nationalist upsurge. Speaking to church leaders in Germany on Monday, she declared, “We won’t get anywhere by trying to solve problems with polarization and populism. We’ve got to show that we’re committed to the basic principles of our nation.” Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says he thinks it is Germany’s insistence on Europe-wide austerity policies that are at the root of the problem. To defeat the nationalist resurgence he proposes a “New Deal” for Europe that is an alternative to those policies which he sees as a, “gift to today’s coalition of European right-wing parties called the ‘Nationalist International.’” He continues: “Europe can survive neither as a free-for-all nor as an Austerity Union in which some countries ... are condemned to permanent depression.”  President Trump this week also took the first steps toward fulfilling his campaign promise of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border and proposed cuts in federal funding for “sanctuary cities” across the U.S. On Thursday, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto insisted once again that Mexico would not pay for a border wall ― which he said undermined the “respect” of his “sovereign nation”― and cancelled his upcoming trip to Washington. The two have since spoken by phone.  Former Mexican president and chair of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council, Ernesto Zedillo, goes further. He said to me this week that Trump’s proposals toward his country have “defied legal and economic rationality” from the start and that now, “the time has come to admit that the actions of the new administration have cancelled, at least for the foreseeable future, any agreement stemming from dialogue and negotiation that could satisfy the legitimate interests of both parties.” Labelling the American president’s actions “aggression,” Zedillo joins the rallying cry of his countrymen: “What we reject under any circumstances is any attempt to use a single inch of our territory to build such an abominable structure. It goes without saying that all Mexicans are behind President Peña Nieto when he tells President Trump that we will not pay for his extravagant, offensive and useless project.” In addition to his directives on Mexico, the American president also delivered on his pledge to limit Muslims entering the U.S., signing a document late Friday whose full details still remain unclear at the time of this article’s publish. Charles Kurzman argues that the the proposed limits are “absurd” and counterproductive. It is the strategy of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, he writes “to take advantage of the West’s hypersensitivity to small scale Islamist attacks.” He continues: “Since 2001, there have been zero fatalities in the U.S. by extremists from the countries on Trump’s list.” As Trump crosses off executive order after executive order and as Syria talks sideline America yet again, many wonder if the U.S. president will go easy on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders are slated to speak this weekend, but already, Ukrainians are on edge. From Kiev, just days after Trump’s inauguration, Ian Bateson reports that many there fear the special relationship between Putin and Trump could leave Ukraine in the cold. “We have seen the rhetoric. Now we are waiting for performance,” one politician says.  Back in America, millions of demonstrators took to the streets across the U.S. and elsewhere to protest Trump’s policies even before executive orders had been signed. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz, who participated in the Washington march, sees a correspondence with resistance in her home country and other countries across the world. “Women (and men) share the same concerns about gender inequality and sexual harassment,” she writes, “regardless of if they live middle class lives in Manhattan or face discrimination on the subways of Istanbul.” Aykan Erdemir and Merve Tahiroglu score new moves by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to consolidate executive power. “An overly centralized polity, a weak legislature and Erdogan’s authoritarianism have brought Turkey to the brink,” they write.  Also reflecting on the massive demonstrations, Margaret Levi reviews the experience of how social movements in American history have ultimately shifted the political agenda. These photos document the scope of demonstration that took place last weekend around the world. Hayley Miller reports that despite the Trump administration’s renewed focus on fossil fuels, a new Pew poll says two-thirds of Americans favor a path to a renewable energy future.  Writing from Hong Kong, Li Jing reports that Chinese officials say they are prepared “to take a leadership role” in defending the Paris climate accord no matter what the new Trump administration decides to do. Following the splash of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s defense of globalization in Davos last week, Minxin Pei sees trouble for him at home as adversaries resist his anti-corruption crackdown and economic reform agenda. “2017 will be a dangerous year for Xi,” he says. In South Africa, in fact, attempts to model government off of China have already created tension among political parties, explain Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden, with one mayor taking a controversial trip to Taiwan, sparking a Trump-esque “one China” policy violation backlash.  Looking to the far future, Deep Space advocate Mary Lynne Dittmar imagines how a full-fledged effort to settle on Mars can help us in our troubled home planet. “Why Mars?” she asks, “Why not the Moon? Simply put, Mars is the best place to develop a ‘local’ infrastructure enabling us to live on another planet, albeit one millions of miles away. In a very real sense Mars is at the far end of the infrastructure we are preparing to revitalize in this country.”  Finally, our Singularity series looks at the moral dilemmas posed by new advances in genetic screening that further enable “designer babies” whose characteristics can be selected. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor.   EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

28 января, 04:14

Weekend Roundup: A New 'Nationalist International' Challenges The Old Globalization

No sooner did “the party of Davos” ― as top White House aide Stephen Bannon calls the global elite ― end its annual conclave in the Swiss Alps late last week than the “Nationalist International” was born down in the Rhine Valley city of Koblenz, Germany. All the main populist movements from across Europe gathered together there to celebrate the Brexit and Trump victories as a premonition of their own expected success in elections over the coming year. They called on their fellow Europeans to “wake up” like the Americans and British and take back control of their national destinies.  What animates these movements for national sovereignty, and paradoxically ties them together across borders, is a double antipathy. Their revolt is against both the faceless forces of global integration represented by trade agreements or Brussels “Eurocrats” and the face-to-face presence of immigrants whom they see as despoiling their own national identities. Scott Malcomson insightfully points out that these movements in Europe see their cultural nationalism not as intolerance of others, but as a defense of diversity in the form of their unique, familiar and cherished way of life they now see as under assault. In their conflated anxieties over Muslim immigrants and terrorism, which they share with President Donald Trump and his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, populists are demonstrating what political scientist Samuel Huntington said after the 9/11 attack by Osama bin Laden about that terrorist leader: “Just as he seeks to rally Muslims by declaring war on the West, he has given back to the West its sense of common identity in defending itself.”  More so than in the U.S., the European nationalist’s idea of belonging bears some very worrying baggage. As novelist Elif Shafak says in an interview with The WorldPost, “I am far more concerned about the rise of populism across Europe than the rise of populism in the U.S. Here in the old continent, there is almost a visceral fear of diversity and ‘the other.’” She goes on to say that, “we need to bear in mind that this history is still alive in a fractured, fragmented and uneven continent where we do not always encounter the checks and balances that exist in the U.S. Constitution.” Mimicking the cry of the Koblenz meeting, Shafak concludes, “So, yes, it is a ‘wake up’ call. But not for the tribalists. It is a wake-up call for democrats and liberals and cosmopolitans, for anyone and everyone who holds democracy and pluralism dear. It is a wake-up call for us.” As Nick Visser reports, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is pushing back against the nationalist upsurge. Speaking to church leaders in Germany on Monday, she declared, “We won’t get anywhere by trying to solve problems with polarization and populism. We’ve got to show that we’re committed to the basic principles of our nation.” Former Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis says he thinks it is Germany’s insistence on Europe-wide austerity policies that are at the root of the problem. To defeat the nationalist resurgence he proposes a “New Deal” for Europe that is an alternative to those policies which he sees as a, “gift to today’s coalition of European right-wing parties called the ‘Nationalist International.’” He continues: “Europe can survive neither as a free-for-all nor as an Austerity Union in which some countries ... are condemned to permanent depression.”  President Trump this week also took the first steps toward fulfilling his campaign promise of building a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border and proposed cuts in federal funding for “sanctuary cities” across the U.S. On Thursday, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto insisted once again that Mexico would not pay for a border wall ― which he said undermined the “respect” of his “sovereign nation”― and cancelled his upcoming trip to Washington. The two have since spoken by phone.  Former Mexican president and chair of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council, Ernesto Zedillo, goes further. He said to me this week that Trump’s proposals toward his country have “defied legal and economic rationality” from the start and that now, “the time has come to admit that the actions of the new administration have cancelled, at least for the foreseeable future, any agreement stemming from dialogue and negotiation that could satisfy the legitimate interests of both parties.” Labelling the American president’s actions “aggression,” Zedillo joins the rallying cry of his countrymen: “What we reject under any circumstances is any attempt to use a single inch of our territory to build such an abominable structure. It goes without saying that all Mexicans are behind President Peña Nieto when he tells President Trump that we will not pay for his extravagant, offensive and useless project.” In addition to his directives on Mexico, the American president also delivered on his pledge to limit Muslims entering the U.S., signing a document late Friday whose full details still remain unclear at the time of this article’s publish. Charles Kurzman argues that the the proposed limits are “absurd” and counterproductive. It is the strategy of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, he writes “to take advantage of the West’s hypersensitivity to small scale Islamist attacks.” He continues: “Since 2001, there have been zero fatalities in the U.S. by extremists from the countries on Trump’s list.” As Trump crosses off executive order after executive order and as Syria talks sideline America yet again, many wonder if the U.S. president will go easy on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders are slated to speak this weekend, but already, Ukrainians are on edge. From Kiev, just days after Trump’s inauguration, Ian Bateson reports that many there fear the special relationship between Putin and Trump could leave Ukraine in the cold. “We have seen the rhetoric. Now we are waiting for performance,” one politician says.  Back in America, millions of demonstrators took to the streets across the U.S. and elsewhere to protest Trump’s policies even before executive orders had been signed. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz, who participated in the Washington march, sees a correspondence with resistance in her home country and other countries across the world. “Women (and men) share the same concerns about gender inequality and sexual harassment,” she writes, “regardless of if they live middle class lives in Manhattan or face discrimination on the subways of Istanbul.” Aykan Erdemir and Merve Tahiroglu score new moves by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to consolidate executive power. “An overly centralized polity, a weak legislature and Erdogan’s authoritarianism have brought Turkey to the brink,” they write.  Also reflecting on the massive demonstrations, Margaret Levi reviews the experience of how social movements in American history have ultimately shifted the political agenda. These photos document the scope of demonstration that took place last weekend around the world. Hayley Miller reports that despite the Trump administration’s renewed focus on fossil fuels, a new Pew poll says two-thirds of Americans favor a path to a renewable energy future.  Writing from Hong Kong, Li Jing reports that Chinese officials say they are prepared “to take a leadership role” in defending the Paris climate accord no matter what the new Trump administration decides to do. Following the splash of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s defense of globalization in Davos last week, Minxin Pei sees trouble for him at home as adversaries resist his anti-corruption crackdown and economic reform agenda. “2017 will be a dangerous year for Xi,” he says. In South Africa, in fact, attempts to model government off of China have already created tension among political parties, explain Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden, with one mayor taking a controversial trip to Taiwan, sparking a Trump-esque “one China” policy violation backlash.  Looking to the far future, Deep Space advocate Mary Lynne Dittmar imagines how a full-fledged effort to settle on Mars can help us in our troubled home planet. “Why Mars?” she asks, “Why not the Moon? Simply put, Mars is the best place to develop a ‘local’ infrastructure enabling us to live on another planet, albeit one millions of miles away. In a very real sense Mars is at the far end of the infrastructure we are preparing to revitalize in this country.”  Finally, our Singularity series looks at the moral dilemmas posed by new advances in genetic screening that further enable “designer babies” whose characteristics can be selected. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor.   EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

25 января, 12:45

Заседание попечительского совета МГУ

Под председательством Владимира Путина прошло заседание попечительского совета Московского государственного университета имени М.В.Ломоносова.

07 января, 03:11

Weekend Roundup: America’s Crisis Of Social Intelligence

If the recent U.S. presidential election campaign was about defining American reality, little has been decided. The ongoing inability to arrive at a shared worldview or even to agree on basic facts, abetted by a media that thrives on adversity to monetize attention, is deadly for the discourse in any democracy. This crisis of social intelligence in which the perception of reality is unmoored from objective observation is even more consequential than the highly damaging quarrel between the official U.S. intelligence agencies and President-elect Donald Trump over Russian influence meddling. But the two are linked. None of the intelligence professionals I know would ever consider themselves infallible. Yet they do strive mightily to establish the facts and resist partisan pressures to slant their findings. Professional intelligence analysis seeks to root out false signals, disinformation, unfounded rumor and subjective opinion. It is, in effect, the opposite of peer-driven social media which now has the most influence over American hearts and minds including, apparently, over the incoming commander-in-chief. While the joint report on the Russian hacks released last week by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security was scored by some as less than conclusive, former NATO commander James Stavridis and cybersecurity expert Dave Weinstein believe it was highly effective. “Publicly laying this level of detail out sets a dramatic precedent that could serve a significant blow to Russia’s current and future cyberoperations in the U.S. and elsewhere,” they write. “The technical details of the report constitute an intelligence windfall for ordinary network defenders who have been starving for rich real-time threat information from the federal government to protect their systems against sophisticated actors.” A further report released Friday by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Russia aimed “to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency” and that “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.” Writing from Moscow, Maria Snegovaya reports that most commentators there have greeted President Barack Obama’s recently announced sanctions in response to Russian hacking with “mockery and derision.” Official Russia, she says, has offered the usual retort: deny then distort.  If identifying and shutting down hackers has become a key task of intelligence agencies in these cyber times, the new challenge for education is to provide young people with the tools of social intelligence so they can tell fact from fabrication on social media. Stanford professor Sam Wineburg lays out the steps educators need to take to help students discern what is fake news or not. “The tools we’ve invented are handling us,“ he says, “not the other way around.” Teacher Lynn Kelley tells her students they fall victim to fake news when they lack the critical distance to be aware of their own biases and assumptions or when they are unable to evaluate claims without the relevant historical knowledge. Natalie Jackson reports on a poll that says most Americans think tweets are not the way a president should communicate.  The scientific consensus on climate change is perhaps the most contested fact by the new powers to be in Washington. These stunning motion graphics compiled by James Warner illustrate the toll a warming climate took on the planet in 2016. Dominique Mosbergen reports that, indeed, 2016 was the hottest year on record.  Nicolas Berggruen and I suggest how the incoming U.S. administration can promote renewable energy while creating jobs and security for Americans by jointly investing with China and Mexico in the infrastructure of a “solar border” instead of a wall. Guy Standing argues that a universal basic income would be a bulwark against far-right populism because it provides a secure economic base in people’s lives. “The response to these darkening times,” he writes, “must be to devise and rally support for a new income distribution system.” In other global developments, yet another terror attack hit Istanbul on New Year’s Eve at a fashionable nightclub on the banks of the Bosphorus. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz reports that, despite the aims of the terrorists, the responses to the attack are serving to unite a divided country. Mercy Corps’ Michael Bowers looks ahead to the humanitarian crises that should garner more attention in 2017 – in Yemen, South Sudan and Lake Chad. Ali Rodriguez reports that the economic situation has become so dire in Venezuela that even talented artists committed to the opposition can’t afford to stay and are fleeing. Former Iranian National Security Council member Seyed Hossein Mousavian sees the potential for hope in the incoming U.S. administration. “While it might sound counterintuitive,” he writes, “Republican control of Congress and the presidency presents an opportunity for successful U.S.- Iran diplomacy. The U.S. government is now able to act in unison, enabling for novel approaches towards the region that may have previously been politically impossible.” In his piece, Mousavian also lists what he believes President-elect Donald Trump should know about Iran. One point is that America’s military presence in the Middle East has created instability there. Interestingly, while chaos gripping much of the Mideast is leading to disengagement by world powers, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden explore why China is actually looking to invest more in the region. In recent years, China was also always the poster child for the worst pollution in the world that came along with rapid growth. Now that China is trying to clean up its act, and India has joined the club of rapid growth, it is facing its own challenges. Bhargav Krishna writes from New Delhi that, “India’s under-funded public health system is straining to cope with the increasing burden of pollution-driven illnesses.” Writing from Hong Kong Wang Xiangwei reports that President Xi Jinping, recently donned “a core leader,” denounced resistance to his reforms by local officials at a Politburo meeting this week after which his comments were splashed across national media. Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei argues that, despite Brexit and the Trump election, globalization is not doomed; it is just shifting East with China in a leading position. Taking a comprehensive strategic view of world events, Zbigniew Brzezinski proposes that the only effective response to the present crisis of global power is trilateral cooperation among the U.S., China and Russia. He warns that, “The U.S. should not act towards China as if it were already an enemy; significantly, it should not favor India as America’s principal ally in Asia. This would almost guarantee a closer connection between China and Russia. Nothing is more dangerous to the U.S. than such a close connection.” Our Singularity series this week looks at the technological developments to watch in 2017 – artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, decentralized peer-to-peer networks, biosynthetic labs and autonomous vehicles. Finally, our latest column by the Future of Life Institute reminds us that, in many ways, 2016 was a year of hope with advances in AI and health as well as new moves to reduce the global number of nuclear weapons. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 января, 03:11

Weekend Roundup: America’s Crisis Of Social Intelligence

If the recent U.S. presidential election campaign was about defining American reality, little has been decided. The ongoing inability to arrive at a shared worldview or even to agree on basic facts, abetted by a media that thrives on adversity to monetize attention, is deadly for the discourse in any democracy. This crisis of social intelligence in which the perception of reality is unmoored from objective observation is even more consequential than the highly damaging quarrel between the official U.S. intelligence agencies and President-elect Donald Trump over Russian influence meddling. But the two are linked. None of the intelligence professionals I know would ever consider themselves infallible. Yet they do strive mightily to establish the facts and resist partisan pressures to slant their findings. Professional intelligence analysis seeks to root out false signals, disinformation, unfounded rumor and subjective opinion. It is, in effect, the opposite of peer-driven social media which now has the most influence over American hearts and minds including, apparently, over the incoming commander-in-chief. While the joint report on the Russian hacks released last week by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security was scored by some as less than conclusive, former NATO commander James Stavridis and cybersecurity expert Dave Weinstein believe it was highly effective. “Publicly laying this level of detail out sets a dramatic precedent that could serve a significant blow to Russia’s current and future cyberoperations in the U.S. and elsewhere,” they write. “The technical details of the report constitute an intelligence windfall for ordinary network defenders who have been starving for rich real-time threat information from the federal government to protect their systems against sophisticated actors.” A further report released Friday by U.S. intelligence agencies concludes that Russia aimed “to undermine public faith in the US democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency” and that “Putin and the Russian government developed a clear preference for President-elect Trump.” Writing from Moscow, Maria Snegovaya reports that most commentators there have greeted President Barack Obama’s recently announced sanctions in response to Russian hacking with “mockery and derision.” Official Russia, she says, has offered the usual retort: deny then distort.  If identifying and shutting down hackers has become a key task of intelligence agencies in these cyber times, the new challenge for education is to provide young people with the tools of social intelligence so they can tell fact from fabrication on social media. Stanford professor Sam Wineburg lays out the steps educators need to take to help students discern what is fake news or not. “The tools we’ve invented are handling us,“ he says, “not the other way around.” Teacher Lynn Kelley tells her students they fall victim to fake news when they lack the critical distance to be aware of their own biases and assumptions or when they are unable to evaluate claims without the relevant historical knowledge. Natalie Jackson reports on a poll that says most American’s think tweets are not the way a president should communicate.  The scientific consensus on climate change is perhaps the most contested fact by the new powers to be in Washington. These stunning motion graphics compiled by James Warner illustrate the toll a warming climate took on the planet in 2016. Dominique Mosbergen reports that, indeed, 2016 was the hottest year on record.  Nicolas Berggruen and I suggest how the incoming U.S. administration can promote renewable energy while creating jobs and security for Americans by jointly investing with China and Mexico in the infrastructure of a “solar border” instead of a wall. Guy Standing argues that a universal basic income would be a bulwark against far-right populism because it provides a secure economic base in people’s lives. “The response to these darkening times,” he writes, “must be to devise and rally support for a new income distribution system.” In other global developments, yet another terror attack hit Istanbul on New Year’s Eve at a fashionable nightclub on the banks of the Bosphorus. Turkish journalist Ilgin Yorulmaz reports that, despite the aims of the terrorists, the responses to the attack are serving to unite a divided country. Mercy Corps’ Michael Bowers looks ahead to the humanitarian crises that should garner more attention in 2017 – in Yemen, South Sudan and Lake Chad. Ali Rodriguez reports that the economic situation has become so dire in Venezuela that even talented artists committed to the opposition can’t afford to stay and are fleeing. Former Iranian National Security Council member Seyed Hossein Mousavian sees the potential for hope in the incoming U.S. administration. “While it might sound counterintuitive,” he writes, “Republican control of Congress and the presidency presents an opportunity for successful U.S.- Iran diplomacy. The U.S. government is now able to act in unison, enabling for novel approaches towards the region that may have previously been politically impossible.” In his piece, Mousavian also lists what he believes President-elect Donald Trump should know about Iran. One point is that America’s military presence in the Middle East has created instability there. Interestingly, while chaos gripping much of the Mideast is leading to disengagement by world powers, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden explore why China is actually looking to invest more in the region. In recent years, China was also always the poster child for the worst pollution in the world that came along with rapid growth. Now that China is trying to clean up its act, and India has joined the club of rapid growth, it is facing its own challenges. Bhargav Krishna writes from New Delhi that, “India’s under-funded public health system is straining to cope with the increasing burden of pollution-driven illnesses.” Writing from Hong Kong Wang Xiangwei reports that President Xi Jinping, recently donned “a core leader,” denounced resistance to his reforms by local officials at a Politburo meeting this week after which his comments were splashed across national media. Former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei argues that, despite Brexit and the Trump election, globalization is not doomed; it is just shifting East with China in a leading position. Taking a comprehensive strategic view of world events, Zbigniew Brzezinski proposes that the only effective response to the present crisis of global power is trilateral cooperation among the U.S., China and Russia. He warns that, “The U.S. should not act towards China as if it were already an enemy; significantly, it should not favor India as America’s principal ally in Asia. This would almost guarantee a closer connection between China and Russia. Nothing is more dangerous to the U.S. than such a close connection.” Our Singularity series this week looks at the technological developments to watch in 2017 – artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, decentralized peer-to-peer networks, biosynthetic labs and autonomous vehicles. Finally, our latest column by the Future of Life Institute reminds us that, in many ways, 2016 was a year of hope with advances in AI and health as well as new moves to reduce the global number of nuclear weapons. WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

03 января, 21:28

Twitter And 'Cheap Talk' Diplomacy

Yesterday, President-Elect Trump responded to Vladimir Putin's response to American sanctions on Russia for espionage with a tweet that read "Great move on delay (by V. Putin) - I always knew he was very smart!". Trump's tweet followed a Russian one, a day earlier, of the word "Lame" over a picture of a duck, also in response to sanctions. In the last couple weeks, the President-Elect has purportedly said "Let it be an arm's race" and otherwise made remarks the flippancy of which has shocked the foreign policy world. "Words," Hillary Clinton, said of Donald Trump's tendency to say outlandish things, "have consequences" and in the chess match of strategic relations where every statement and action historically has been pored over and studied before eliciting the optimal counter-move, his words have been generally condemned. Game theory predates the 20th Century but came into its own during the Cold War-- advanced by geniuses such as John Nash, Michael Spence and Thomas Schelling who would all go on to win Nobel prizes. Though developed at universities, it was applied by the Pentagon and security community to navigate the threat of nuclear annihilation through one false move. In games with frontiers, each move or statement counted and, in the type of games that became known as signaling games, signaling was never cheap. However, in 1982, two economists Vincent Crawford and Joel Sobel proposed a type of game, "Cheap Talk" in which talk is free. In contrast to traditional signals--a costly college degree signaling intelligence to employers, for example, in the classic paper by Spence--in games of cheap talk, people can say anything at no cost. Sending signals or information in the real world had always been expensive. A call on the "red" hotline to Moscow--an idea championed by Schelling before JFK set it up in 1963 was expensive--requiring the resources of government to carry out--though that was far less expensive Schelling realized than an errant plane or bomb. Even in biology, signaling is typically costly--think peacocks and their plumage as a sign of strength. In the age of Twitter, however, information can be translated at minimal cost. Though Donald Trump is not an economist he is a bargaining savant and it is possible he has stumbled on cheap talk as a useful technique. When talk is free--or more specifically costless--it means people can literally say anything. They may tell the truth--or they may not. To be credible, however, there must be some chance that the signal is true. So people may include some signal in a sea of noise. When participants have interests in common, Crawford and Sobel found, they can achieve a better outcome through cheap talk than otherwise. Subsequent work by other economists has confirmed that cheap talk can improve outcomes when two parties to a negotiation have similar interests. However when they have little to gain by cooperating, each will have an incentive to lie that will render the cheap talk increasingly meaningless. The benefits from cheap talk seem to max out when being truthful but also vague. Currently, the President-Elect's Twitter cheap talk approach and the traditional Cold War approach to strategic relations seem diametrically opposed. In the traditional way of doing things, every move is important, every stray word or posture, kabuki-like in its meaning and the best outcome requires carefully calculating each response. No doubt, that approach grew out of hard lessons--World War II, the Korean War and decades of wrangling with Moscow. A long series of proxy conflicts and outright wars in the Congo, Cuba and Vietnam, testify to the high cost of superpowers signaling military strength. In contrast, Cheap Talk is largely untested in strategic relations though the Internet has made it increasingly affordable. When interests align, theory suggests it may lead to higher outcomes. Russia and the US have some interests in common--the costs of war and benefits of peace that are always present in strategic relations--and now the desire to defeat Isis. Whether those interests are adequate to overcome an equally longstanding rivalry, traverse the current rough patch in US-Soviet relations and avert a new Cold War is unknown. However, it would be beneficial for all parties on both sides to grasp that we have entered a new era of virtually free information and cheap talk. In other words, as dangerous as incendiary comments themselves, may be taking those comments literally. Theatrical gestures on both sides should be taken with a large grain of Salt (with apologies for the metaphor) and not treated as strategic moves. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

28 декабря 2016, 10:22

Чего не хватает Китаю для трансформации экономики?

Удастся ли мировой экономике избежать затяжной стагнации во многом зависит от того, сможет ли Китай переориентировать экономику на внутренний спрос. Как пишет в своей статье на Project Syndicate лауреат Нобелевской премии Майкл Спенс, для трансформации Китаю необходимо ликвидировать дисбалансы в финансовой системе.

28 декабря 2016, 00:53

Чего не хватает Китаю для трансформации экономики?

Удастся ли мировой экономике избежать затяжной стагнации, во многом зависит от того, сможет ли Китай переориентировать экономику на внутренний спрос.

28 декабря 2016, 00:53

Чего не хватает Китаю для трансформации экономики?

Удастся ли мировой экономике избежать затяжной стагнации во многом зависит от того, сможет ли Китай переориентировать экономику на внутренний спрос.

02 декабря 2016, 12:18

Трамп — предвестник нового экономического порядка

За последние несколько лет мировая экономика существенно изменилась, произошла кардинальная смена приоритетов. Как пишет в своей статье на Project Syndicate Майкл Спенс, в текущих реалиях на первое место выходят приоритеты по справедливому распределению экономического роста, созданию устойчивых экономических моделей.

02 декабря 2016, 00:03

Трамп - предвестник нового экономического порядка

За последние несколько лет мировая экономика существенно изменилась, произошла кардинальная смена приоритетов.

02 декабря 2016, 00:03

Трамп - предвестник нового экономического порядка

За последние несколько лет мировая экономика существенно изменилась, произошла кардинальная смена приоритетов.

12 ноября 2016, 04:45

Weekend Roundup: Democracy Disrupts Itself

When unresponsive elites forsake the common folk in governing systems anchored in popular sovereignty, demagogues who fashion themselves as tribunes of the people ride the rage to power and wreck it all. As the classicist Philip Freeman observes, that has been the pattern going back more than two millennia to the demise of the Roman republic. So, too, he writes, Donald Trump’s victory could well mark the beginning of the end of the American republic.  The decay of democracy in the United States over recent decades has produced the worst of both worlds. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton embodied an insider establishment captured by the big-money politics of organized special interests. Out of touch inside its smug bubble, her campaign failed to grasp the anger and resentment of the excluded. As Krystal Ball unsparingly writes, “the Democratic Party deserved to die.” Taking a page from the rise of fascism in Europe, Republican nominee Donald Trump poisonously exploited the very real travails of the left behind by blaming it all on the world outside and enemies within. Realizing the worst fears of the American Founding Fathers, the democratic ballot box has now unleashed the darkest forces within the body politic. A populist charlatan will soon take up residence in the White House. Trump’s triumph is not just the turn of another electoral cycle. It reveals a systemic crisis of American democracy. Without reinvigorated institutions and practices that temper passions while embracing diversity and engaging those who have been abandoned, the “Great Reaction” could endure for a long while. Just because Trump won the election, Dean Obeidallah says, the hatred and bigotry he spewed in the campaign cannot simply be absolved and forgotten. Based on their research, psychologists Michele Gelfand and Joshua Conrad Jackson report that, “the strongest Trump supporters were those who felt that America was under grave threat and believed that the country needed tighter rules and less tolerance toward anyone who seemed ‘un-American.’” Howard Fineman points out the paradox that, “Trump ran and won as a change agent who promised to restore the past.” Yet, as he also observes, “a new America will continue to develop; demographics and technology make it inevitable.” Because the U.S. is the leading global power, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt sees the “Great Reaction” reverberating around the planet, weakening the liberal order rooted in tolerance and openness and strengthening those lured by the siren of xenophobia and closed societies. Thomas Weber worries that we are witnessing an erosion of liberal democracy across the West by the kind of revolutionary upheavals that swept the world at the turn of the 20th century. Nick Robins-Early surveys how Trump’s election has plunged the rest of the world into uncertainty over the future of America’s alliances and commitment to global institutions. Philippe Legrain fears that Trump’s “America First,” anti-globalist agenda will add further momentum to a world already sinking into disorder, stoking an intensified clash of civilizations with the Muslim-majority world, inciting confrontation if not violence with Hispanic immigrants and fostering global recession through trade protectionism. And that is not to speak of abandoning the Iran nuclear deal as well as unhinging the balance of power in East Asia and Europe if the U.S. backs away from its security alliances. None of these possibilities, he notes, are likely to be mitigated by a Republican-dominated Congress that arrived on Trump’s coattails. What is missing from these analyses is that Trump’s “America First” policy is willing to let go of the outdated post-World War II international institutions and alliances in a way that the establishment was never willing to do. Paradoxically, that opens the path for a long overdue revamping of the world order to accommodate the rise of the emerging economies, most notably China. The key is making the transition without creating a vacuum. It is encouraging that a top aide to Trump has already said that not joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was a “strategic mistake” for the U.S. that the new administration would seek to correct. Writing from Mexico City, Homero Aridjis describes the mood across the border. “This is a political earthquake for the Mexican government that will require a massive overhaul of every aspect of the relationship between our two countries,” he says. Yet Aridjis also sees a “timid optimism.” It is not impossible, Aridjis muses, that Trump, a deal-maker, could come to terms with Mexico on both trade and immigration. A Trump presidency is surely bad news, though, for the fight against climate change, Kate Sheppard writes, since he has baldly stated in the past that he considers it is all “bullshit” and a “hoax.” Nick Visser reports on the anxiety the U.S. election has introduced at the U.N. climate conference in Morocco this week that is working out the details of implementing the historic Paris accord. UNESCO chief Irina Bokova makes the case for carrying the climate change battle to the classroom. “We need greener societies,” she writes. “To succeed, fundamentally, we need green citizens.” Carolyn Gregoire reports on a groundbreaking experiment in which “psychobiotics” use gut bacteria to treat mental illness. Finally, our Singularity series this week takes you on a virtual ride in a fully autonomous Tesla.  WHO WE ARE   EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at The Huffington Post, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. Rowaida Abdelaziz is World Social Media Editor. CORRESPONDENTS: Sophia Jones in Istanbul. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera), Dileep Padgaonkar (Times of India) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khannaare Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

04 ноября 2016, 12:02

Does the Economy Really Need to Keep Growing Quite So Much?

Questioning a basic orthodoxy

13 октября 2016, 19:53

Aleppo?????

Profound thoughts arise only in debate, with a possibility of counterargument, only when there is a possibility of expressing not only correct ideas but also dubious ideas. Andrei Dmitrievich Sakharov, Progress, Coexistence and Intellectual Freedom They weren't watching the debate. Because of their close quarters, the parents knew that if they were watching, their children would be watching and they knew that what the children didn't hear would be upsetting for the children. They would be unable to explain to the children why they didn't hear what they didn't hear. Those parents' reasons for not letting their children watch were different from those parents who didn't let their children watch because of what might be explicitly said about Mr. Trump's voracious sexual appetite. The parents in the first group would not know how to explain to their children that for almost the first half hour of the debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton on October 9, 2016, the children heard no discussion of their plight. The parents would not know how to explain to their children that when directly asked in the second half hour of the debate what each of them would do to help the few families that may be left when sworn in as president, one at first answered obliquely and only in follow up discussion made more definitive statements as to what she would do. The other made no attempt to answer the question. The question had been submitted by a listener: "[I]f you were president, what would you do about Syria and the humanitarian crisis in Aleppo. Isn't it a lot like the Holocaust when the U.S. waited too long before we helped?" The question might have been inspired by a report in the New York Times that sought to explain why so many children were being killed in Aleppo. As the opening paragraph of the New York Times report said: "They [children] cannot play, sleep or attend school. Increasingly, they cannot eat. Injury or illness could be fatal. Many just huddle with their parents in windowless underground shelters . . . . Among the roughly 250,000 people trapped in the insurgent redoubt of the divided northern Syrian city are 100,000 children. Secretary Clinton gave the first inadequate response. She said that the situation in Aleppo is "catastrophic." As Secretary of State she said she had advocated no-fly and safe zones. She said the United States had to work more closely with its allies on the ground. Mr. Trump responded using 349 words. He never mentioned Aleppo. The moderator repeated the question about Aleppo quoting Michael Spence, the vice-presidential candidate saying that the United States "should be prepared to use military force to strike the military targets of the Assad regime." Mr. Trump's only statement about what the United States should do in Aleppo was to say that he disagreed with Mr. Spence and said: "I think Aleppo is a disaster- "humanitarian-wise." Pressed further, he began discussing events in Mosul, Iraq, at great length. When he had finished, Secretary Clinton was again asked whether she would advocate the use of U.S. military force to back up diplomacy and what she would do differently from what the president was doing. She responded that she would not use ground forces in Syria, but would advocate the use of special forces as was being done in Iraq. With that response, Aleppo went to the back of the discussion, a discussion that concluded with more discussion of the use of forces in Iraq. As Martha Raddatz, one of the moderators, brought that discussion to a close, Mr. Trump, who had only mentioned the word Aleppo once in his answers, concluded his remarks on the subject saying: "You know what's funny? She went over a minute over, and you don't stop her. When I go one second over, it's like a big deal." The parents huddled in the basements of what was left of their houses, did not want their children to hear what the two candidates for the presidency of the strongest country in the world had said in response to the question about their plight. The little boy who had been photographed sitting pitifully in a chair with his bloody face only a few weeks earlier would not have understood when his mother tried to explain to him why only one of the candidates to become president of the United States even attempted to explain what she would do to help him and his family and others like him. The parents of the child who was seen being pulled from the rubble after a bunker bomb had destroyed his safe haven, would not understand why one of the candidates was so concerned about how much time he had to answer a question, when the little boy wondered how much time he had left before another bomb landed on his dwelling. There was one bit of encouraging news the Aleppo parents could have shared with their children had they let them watch. They could tell their children that whereas the word "Aleppo" was used only ten times in the Sunday night debate, it was not mentioned at all in the debate ten days earlier. As a spokeswoman for the American Relief Coalition for Syria said after the first debate, the coalition was "deeply disappointed by the utter failure of last night's debate to even mention Syria." The Coalition's disappointment with the candidates' responses after Sunday night's debate was probably only slightly less than it had been the previous week. Understandably. Imagine how the children in Aleppo would have felt had they only known. Christopher Brauchli can be emailed at [email protected] For political commentary see his web page at http://humanraceandothersports.com -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

11 октября 2016, 14:00

Теория контрактов: в чем суть открытий нобелевских лауреатов-2016

Премию по экономике получили Оливер Харт и Бенгт Хольмстрем

05 мая 2016, 01:03

Гросс: роботизация приведет к "социализму поневоле"

Билл Гросс, один из самых успешных управляющих за всю историю современных рынков облигаций, считает, что власти западных стран в дальнейшем будут вынуждены все активнее печатать деньги для поддержки своих экономик и населения.