11 февраля, 08:36

Глубина падения. Сможет ли Украина выбраться из экономической пропасти?

В Украине попытка в 2014 г. реформировать руководство силами самого правительства показательно провалилась, потому что были нарушены оба указанных выше принципа: люди, призванные реформировать государственный аппарат, погрязли в административной текучке, а доступ к первым лицам в государстве получили совсем другие люди, для которых экономические реформы были пустым звуком. Было ли это следствием невежества политического руководства или же сознательным актом имитации реформ для обмана общественного мнения, в данном случае несущественно, потому что результат одинаков.

09 февраля, 18:17

Глубина падения

Сможет ли Украина выбраться из экономической пропасти?

30 января, 19:01

Students scoff at Australian varsity’s sex-consent course

A COMPULSORY sexual harassment course at a top Australian university which tells students they must get an “enthusiastic yes” before kissing someone was ridiculed yesterday as a box-ticking exercise.

25 января, 22:06

My Interview with Princeton University Press, by Bryan Caplan

Highlights:The "signaling model of education" is the foundation of your argument. What is this model? The standard view of education, often called the "human capital model," says that education raises income by training students for their future jobs. The signaling model, in contrast, says that education raises income by certifying students for their future jobs. Doing well in school is a great way to convince employers that you're smart, hard-working, and conformist. Once they're convinced, career rewards naturally follow. Could you give an analogy? Sure. There are two ways to raise the value of a diamond. One is to hand it to an expert gem smith so he can beautifully cut the stone. The other is to hand it to a reputable appraiser with a high-powered eyepiece so he can certify the pre-existing excellence of the stone. The first story is like human capital; the second story is like signaling. Is it really either/or? Of course not. The human capital and signaling models both explain part of education's career benefits. But I say signaling is at least half the story--and probably more.[...]In 2001, Michael Spence won a Nobel Prize for his work on educational signaling. Can the idea really be so neglected?  What is your value-added here? Signaling enjoys high status in pure economic theory. But most empirical labor and education economists are dismissive. Either they ignore signaling, cursorily acknowledge it in a throw-away footnote, or hastily conclude it's quantitatively trivial. My book argues that there's overwhelming evidence that signaling is a mighty force in the real world. There's strong evidence inside of economics--and even stronger evidence in educational psychology, sociology of education, and education research. And finally, signaling has abundant support from common sense.[...]Given today's political climate, who do you think will be most receptive to your message?  The most hostile? Support for education is bipartisan. Most people, regardless of party, favor more and better education. It's no accident that both Bushes wanted to be known as "education presidents." That said, I think my biggest supporters will be pragmatists and fiscal hawks. And my biggest opponents will be ideological fans of education and fiscal doves. Most progressives will probably dislike my book, but they really shouldn't. If you care about social justice, you should be looking for reforms that help people get good jobs without fancy degrees. You're a full professor at George Mason and a Princeton Ph.D. How can you of all people possibly challenge the social value of education? I see myself as a whistleblower. Personally, I've got nothing to complain about; the education system has given me a dream job for life. However, when I look around, I see a huge waste of students' time and taxpayers' money. If I don't let them know their time and money's being misspent, who will? And if I wasn't a professor, who would take me seriously? (1 COMMENTS)

17 января, 08:55

Do markets underprovide genetic insurance?

Perhaps you know that both mainstream bananas and chocolate are threatened by blights.  There is even talk of “bananas as we know them” going under, although I believe the hardier (and tastier) Brazilian bananas are in much less danger.  They are also harder to grow, stack, and transport to the United States. More generally, to […] The post Do markets underprovide genetic insurance? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

05 декабря 2017, 00:52

Спенс: мировая экономика на пороге кризиса

В развитом мире 2017 г., вероятно, будут вспоминать как период резкого контраста, когда экономика многих стран ускоренно росла, но вместе с тем усиливались и политическая фрагментация, поляризация и напряженность как внутри стран, так и в мире.

05 декабря 2017, 00:52

Спенс: мировая экономика на пороге кризиса

В развитом мире 2017 год, вероятно, будут вспоминать как период резкого контраста, когда экономика многих стран ускоренно росла, но вместе с тем усиливались и политическая фрагментация, поляризация и напряженность как внутри стран, так и в мире.

02 декабря 2017, 10:49

Глобальная экономика в 2018 году

Экономистам вроде меня постоянно задают множество вопросов, ответы на которые помогли бы фирмам, частным лицам и учреждениям сделать выбор в таких областях, как инвестиции, образование и рабочие места, а также пролить свет на то, чего […]

04 ноября 2017, 17:19

Sustainable Development Goals: No Longer Fresh at Project Syndicate

**[Politics in the Way of Progress](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/populist-politics-block-development-goals-by-j--bradford-delong-2017-10)**: The seventeen—seventeen!—sustainable development goals are: No Poverty, Zero Hunger, Good Health and Well-being, Quality Education, Gender Equality, Clean Water and Sanitation, Affordable and Clean Energy, Decent Work and Economic Growth, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, Reduced Inequalities, Sustainable Cities and Communities, Responsible Consumption and Production, Climate Action, Life Below Water, Life on Land, Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions, and "Partnerships for the Goals . It is clear to me that seventeen is too many. Napoleon is supposed to have said: "he who defends everything defends nothing". Similarly, those who prioritize everything prioritize nothing. The point to having goals and forging a consensus about what those goals are is to find goals working toward which carries you onto and then rapidly along the turnpike: you make faster progress in key areas, and then, when you later get off the turnpike and head to your various final destinations, you find you have gotten there faster and easier than if you had not taken the turnpike. Consensus goals should not be a wish list of everything that will be when the New Jerusalem descends. Consensus goals should be directions to the turnpike. Can we make progress by taking...

26 октября 2017, 23:53

Where To Invest When (Almost) Everything's In A Bubble

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace. Now that almost every asset class is in a bubble, the question of where to invest one's capital has become particularly vexing. The ashes of wealth consumed by the 2008-09 Global Financial Meltdown are still warm, at least to those who never recovered, and so buying assets at nosebleed valuations in the hopes of earning another 5% aren't very compelling to anyone pursuing common-sense risk management. As it happens, I wrote a whole book on this vexing question, An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times. I can't summarize all the ideas presented in the book in one brief blog entry, but some basic principles will serve us well when bubbles abound. 1. Risk cannot be disappeared, it can only be masked or transferred to others. When anyone claims an investment is low-risk, they're actually claiming either A) the risk has been obscured by fancy footwork or false claims, or B) the risk has been transferred to some mark, chump or bagholder--nowadays, that usually means the taxpayer, as profits are private and losses are socialized. 2. Value flows to what's scarce. As economist Michael Spence and his colleagues have noted, conventional capital--the kind issued by central banks and private banks--is not scarce and therefore has little value. Ditto for conventional labor. This is why the returns on conventional capital and labor are so low. Spence et al. suggest that what's scarce in today's global economy are ideas that create new business models, new productivity tools and new goods/services: Labor, Capital, and Ideas in the Power Law Economy. This suggests an investment strategy of identifying what's scarce, or what will soon be scarce, before everyone else. 3. Many things that are scarce and thus valuable cannot be bought on the global marketplace. The number one example of this is of course health, which is priceless because even having millions won't buy your health back when it's been lost. Yes, you can get patched up with stents or costly meds or maybe score a black-market organ harvested from some unfortunate prisoner somewhere, but all this sort of thing merely keeps you alive; it doesn't actually restore health. So any investment in health will pay extremely high dividends. It doesn't take a ton of cash to invest in one's health; most of the investment is behavioral. Other examples of what can't be bought in the same way stocks, bonds and housing can be purchased: meaningful work, communities with a collective memory of how to get things done in the real world, a functioning community economy, etc. Investing in work you find fulfilling and meaningful pays dividends that can't be bought on the marketplace. Once again, investing in one's skills and social/intellectual capital doesn't require much cash; thanks to YouTube University and many other free or low-cost sources, anyone can start acquiring the eight essential skills I lay out in my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy. The basic idea is to learn how to build your own career and job. 4. Comparing the relative value of various assets helps identify what's relatively overvalued and undervalued. The key word here is relative: to say something is absolutely undervalued is trickier than concluding something is undervalued compared to other asset classes. For example, compare housing in the U.S. and global commodities. Based on the national Case-Shiller Index, house prices have reached new bubblicious levels. Thanks, Federal Reserve! It's not much of a stretch to reckon that, hmm, valuations are looking a bit more likely to be overvalued here rather than undervalued. Now ponder this chart of global commodity prices. It seems commodities are looking decidedly unbubblicious at these levels. Many commentators have noted that commodities such as precious metals, agricultural products, fertilizers etc. are considerably lower than their recent peaks. So one possible strategy here would be to sell that apartment complex you bought in Seattle that's doubled in value over the past few years and use the proceeds to start nibbling on some commodities that look beaten up, ignored, scorned or simply low in their historic range. This doesn't mean commodities can't or won't go much lower, or the Seattle apartments can't or won't go much higher; remember, risk cannot be disappeared. It's an exercise in risk management, and making an assessment of what's more or less likely to happen over the next few years. It's an exercise in hedging gains by seeking exposure in assets that may become scarce and thus more valuable in the near future. (This is not a recommendation to pursue this strategy; I mention it only as an example of the principle of comparing relative value.) There's more in the book, have a look: here's the Intro and Chapter One, and the Amazon page: An Unconventional Guide to Investing in Troubled Times. *  *  * If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print, $5.95 audiobook) For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

26 октября 2017, 01:14

Новый лидеры Китая: технократы берут власть

Среди событий на XIX Всекитайском съезде Коммунистической партии Китая основное внимание уделяется вопросу о том, кто займет ключевые должности в администрации председателя Си Цзиньпина на следующие пять лет.

26 октября 2017, 01:14

Новый лидеры Китая: технократы берут власть

Среди событий на XIX Всекитайском съезде Коммунистической партии Китая основное внимание уделяется вопросу, кто займёт ключевые должности в администрации председателя Си Цзиньпина на следующие пять лет.

21 октября 2017, 04:15

Weekend Reading: Melissa Kearney: How Should Governments Address Inequality?

**Melissa S. Kearney**: [How Should Governments Address Inequality?](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2017-10-16/how-should-governments-address-inequality): "In 2014, an unusual book topped bestseller lists around the world: _Capital in the Twenty-first Century_... >...an 816-page scholarly tome by the French economist Thomas Piketty that examined the massive increase in the proportion of income and wealth accruing to the world’s richest people. Drawing on an unprecedented amount of historical economic data from 20 countries, Piketty showed that wealth concentration had returned to a peak not seen since the early twentieth century. Today in the United States, the top one percent of households earn around 20 percent of the nation’s income, a dramatic change from the middle of the twentieth century, when income was spread more evenly and the top one percent’s share hovered at around ten percent. Piketty predicted that without corrective action, the trend toward ever more concentrated income and wealth would continue, and so he called for a global tax on wealth. >Like much of the popular commentary about inequality, Piketty’s book rested on an implicit moral claim—that wealth concentration beyond a certain degree violates the inherent sense of fairness on which a just society depends. But antipathy toward inequality alone cannot drive a policy agenda that will...

21 сентября 2017, 00:01

Российская стабильность: почему благосостояние страны трудно превратить в благополучие граждан

Если судить по наиболее важным показателям благополучия граждан, России так и не удается сократить отставание от наиболее развитых западных стран, отмечается в исследовании Boston Consulting Group

Выбор редакции
30 августа 2017, 22:57

Китай — новый создатель правил глобальной экономики

Рост среднего класса Китая, конечно, не является новостью. Однако масштаб влияния интернет-ориентированных молодых потребителей на ускорение роста сектора услуг в Китае пока что не привлекал широкого внимания. А между тем, сектор услуг поможет структурной трансформации […]

17 июля 2017, 19:19

Links for the Week of July 18, 2017

**Must-Reads:** * **Ann Marie Marciarille**: More Than One Way to Say "No": "When I teach my students about the concept of guaranteed issue in health insurance I always make it clear that without some constraints on individual underwriting it can mean very little... * **Adam Ozimek**: There Is No U.S. Wage Growth Mystery: "Economists... puzzled over U.S. wage growth... wondering why it has been so slow despite a labor market that is allegedly back to or close to full employment... * **Dani Rodrik**: Economics of the populist backlash: The populist backlash to globalisation should not have come as a surprise, in light of economic history and economic theory... * **Matthew Yglesias**: On Twitter: "Nostalgia-drenched anti-intellectual populism can be a cause rather than a consequence of community economic decline" * **Paul Krugman**: When Was The Golden Age Of Conservative Intellectuals?: "Bret Stephens’s... [on] the intellectual decline of conservatism... the modern degeneracy... * **Larry Summers**: Donald Trump’s alarming G20 performance: "the content of the [of the G-20] communiqué [is] a confirmation of the breakdown of international order that many have feared since the election of Donald Trump... ---- **Should-Reads:** * **Paul Krugman**: Formerly True Theories (Wonkish and Self-Indulgent): "Are there other examples?...

14 июля 2017, 17:16

Procrastination on July 14, 2017

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Ezra Klein** (2015): "I have sat down a couple of times to write up what's worked and what's failed at Vox... * **Austin Frakt**: Don’t Assume That Private Insurance Is Better Than Medicaid: "The RAND study... shows... people are terrible discriminators of what care is needed and what’s not... * **Martin Wolf**: Britain is incapable of managing Brexit and calamity will follow: "The UK once had a deserved reputation for pragmatic and stable politics... * **Jeff Mackie-Mason**: Scholarly Publishing Landscape: "We are optimistic about our ability to collaborate and partner to achieve a sustainable open publishing universe... * **IGM Forum**: Inflation Target : ---- **Interesting Reads:** * **Jeff Mackie-Mason and Company**: * Scholarly Communication Services | UC Berkeley Library * Library launches new Scholarly Communications website – UC Berkeley Library News * Zoom * Participate in an Affordable Course Content Pilot Program! – UC Berkeley Library News * Scholarly Publishing Landscape | UC Berkeley Library * **Andrew Sabl**: Liberalism Beyond Markets * Video Conferencing, Web Conferencing, Webinars, Screen Sharing - Zoom * **Jamie Dimon**: JPM's Jamie Dimon blows up at Washington on earnings call: "It's almost embarrassing being an American citizen... and...

23 июня 2017, 22:01

Weekend Roundup: Spotlight On The Apprentice

It is where Donald Trump’s reality-TV persona from “The Apprentice” meets his presidency that he can make the most significant difference for the “left behind” constituencies that voted for him. Last week, President Trump issued an executive order calling for the doubling of funding for apprenticeship grants in the United States ― a key area, like infrastructure, where a consensus can be built across America’s divided politics. In an interview with The WorldPost this week, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers makes Trump’s case: “We don’t do anything for people who don’t go to college. They are left to either sink or swim, and mostly they sink. I’m thinking here of the kind of vocational apprentice arrangements that Germany has implemented successfully.” Summers also argues for international economic policies that benefit the average person more than the global corporations, such as closing tax loopholes and shutting down tax havens as a priority over securing intellectual property protection for pharmaceutical companies. “Right now,” he says, “when we discuss the global economy, we mainly talk about things that improve ‘competitiveness’ and are painful to the regular worker.” Alongside greater investment in public higher education, on-the-job vocational training is essential to creating workforce opportunities not only in a global economy, but, more importantly, when faced with the perpetual disruptions of digital capitalism. As economist Laura Tyson points out, “about 80 percent of the loss in U.S. manufacturing jobs over the last three decades was a result of labor-saving and productivity-enhancing technological change, with trade coming a distant second.” Constantly adjusting to an ever-shifting recomposition of the knowledge-driven innovation economy is only possible if skills remain aligned to the needs of employers. Brookings Institution policy analyst Mark Muro thinks the president managed to get the big things right with his executive order. “In noting that a four-year college degree isn’t for everyone,” Muro writes, “he spoke reasonably about the potential of paid, hands-on workplace experiences that train workers and link them to employers. In addition, Trump rightly underscored the need for industry — rather than the government — to play the largest role in structuring those experiences.” Tamar Jacoby, president of Opportunity America, a Washington-based nonprofit working to promote economic mobility, concurs that industry, not government, knows best what skills they need. “After more than two years of unlikely promises — to restore coal mining, end offshoring and recreate the manufacturing jobs of a bygone era,” writes Jacoby, “the president is finally focusing on a solution that could make a difference for the working-class voters who elected him: skills.”  Writing from Munich on her way to an international gathering on apprenticeships, Jobs for the Future’s Nancy Hoffman emphasizes that the most successful programs “combine structured learning in a workplace with credit-bearing community college course-taking so that a student arrives at completion of the apprenticeship not just with job-related skills, but with a useable transferable credential as well.” Joshua Pearce, who heads Michigan Tech’s Open Sustainability Technology Lab, completes the picture. “A relatively minor investment in retraining,” he says, “would allow the majority of coal workers to switch to solar-related positions.” But not everyone is completely on board. McKinsey & Company’s Mona Mourshed offers a cautious note: only around 30 percent of youth employment programs have proven effective, according to World Bank estimates. “The hallmarks of an effective program,” she writes, “are employer engagement, a practice-based curriculum, student support services and a commitment to measuring results post-program.” Stanford University economist Eric Hanushek is even more skeptical that the U.S. can replicate the successful German model of apprenticeship, because failing K-12 schools in America are not providing young people entering the workforce with the requisite cognitive skills to effectively prepare them for an uncertain future. Bolstering vocational apprenticeship programs in the U.S. is imperative to enabling non-college-educated Americans to find work in a continually churning economy. But, clearly, much work will have to be done to realize that imperative itself. Other highlights in The WorldPost this week: Asian ‘Boat People,’ Once Opposed More Than Syrian Refugees Today, Speak Out  The Fastest-Growing Refugee Crisis Is The One You’ve Probably Heard The Least About How Obama Won The French Election It’s Been A Long, Crazy Year Since Britain’s Shocking Brexit Vote How The British Media Helps Radicalize People Against Islam Here’s What Happens When A President Doesn’t Have A Clear Foreign Policy WHO WE ARE     EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Rosa O’Hara is the Social Editor of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at HuffPost, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

22 июня 2017, 00:40

Automation's Destruction Of Jobs: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet...

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog, Employers have no choice: it's innovate/automate or die. Automation--networked robotics, software and processes--has already had a major impact on jobs. As this chart from my colleague Gordon T. Long illustrates, the rise of Internet technologies is reflected in the steady, long-term decline of the labor force participation rate-- the percentage of the populace that is actively in the labor market. The oft-repeated fantasy is that every new wave of technological innovation creates more jobs than it destroys. Not this time: the total number of full-time jobs has stagnated for years, and most of the new jobs that have been created are in low-wage, moderate-skill positions that cannot move the productivity needle much: jobs such as those in the retail and restaurant sectors. Real wealth isn't created by printing currency or jacking up stock valuations--it's created by increasing productivity. As this chart reveals, productivity has stagnated for years. This is a complex dynamic, but we can surmise that the low-hanging fruit of automation has already been harvested, and the addition of jobs that are inherently limited in the productivity gains that can be achieved are core components in stagnating/declining productivity. I have often discussed productivity and economist Michael Spence's framework of tradable and non-tradable labor. You want a beer-bottling machine? That's a tradable good; it can be manufactured anywhere in the world. You want a beer at the local tavern? That is non-tradable--it is a service that can only be provided locally. The problem is non-tradable labor is typically impervious to productivity gains: even the most experienced bartenders can only draw so many beers and mix so many drinks in an hour. A retail salesperson can only help so many customers in an hours, a gardener can only mow so much lawn in an hour, and so on. As Gordon and I discuss in our new video program, Robotics & Chronic Unemployment, automation is now entering these non-tradable sectors with a vengeance. Sectors dominated by non-tradable labor include taxis, local trucking, long-haul trucking, delivery services, courier services, retail, restaurants, fast food, and so on. Every one of these sectors is perched on the precipice of dramatic disruption by automation. Self-driving vehicles, drone deliveries, self-serve kiosks, robotic store clerks that have the entire store inventory available to answer customer questions--the list of automation advances in once-safe sectors is almost endless. The driver is the need for productivity increases. Labor costs keep rising, especially for labor-overhead expenses such as healthcare insurance and pensions. The cost of living keeps rising, pushing wages higher. If productivity can't be increased, the only alternative is to raise prices. But consumers, even at the high end, are reaching their limits. When meals that cost $20 now cost $30, consumers start opting for cheaper alternatives. Corporations and small businesses alike can only trim production costs and keep prices fixed for so long before profits vanish. Enter automation. The new technologies are now giving enterprises the tools to increase productivity in these previously low-productivity non-tradable sectors. While we can collectively fret over this need to increase productivity and the resulting decline in paid labor, the employers have no choice: it's innovate/automate or die. Even local, state and federal government agencies and contractors, heretofore impervious to soaring labor and overhead costs, are about to feel the urgent need to automate as a survival technique as budgets turn red in rising deficits and taxpayers revolt against ever-higher taxes. There are no safe sectors any more because unrestrained cost increases are killing the economy. Healthcare is a runaway train, and all the buffers that enables prices to go to the moon are gone: we can't even afford the limited Medicare we have now, much less Medicare for All. It's not just low-skill jobs that are being destroyed. Look at the automation of financial services and trading. In the near future, if you want human service, you'll have to pay extra--if it's available at all. There is a self-reinforcing dynamic to job losses and stagnating wages. As households receive less income, they must tighten their belts, further pressuring government and private enterprise alike to do more with less costly labor. Given a choice between a lower-cost automated service and a higher-cost human-labor service, the bottom 95% will have to choose the automated service. If a fast-food meal at a kiosk is $5 and the one served by a human is $6, which will people choose? I have described the difference in my book Get a Job, Build a Real Career and Defy a Bewildering Economy: this setting is low-touch--the human interaction doesn't create much value for the customer, so they aren't willing to pay a premium for it. The same is true of most non-tradable sectors. The coming destruction of jobs will be monumental, unstoppable and long-term. Gordon Long and I discuss the effects of robotics and automation on jobs in this 27-minute program:

17 июня 2017, 00:58

Weekend Roundup: Islam Through The Eyes Of Western Converts

To discover the other within ourselves, for empathy to turn the soul, is a mark of common humanity. Religious converts who take the full journey to another faith offer insights and wisdom from the inside out beyond what can be gained from the outside looking in. This week, we publish two profiles in the latest of a remarkable series for The WorldPost by Islamic scholar Akbar Ahmed on Western converts to Islam. The first profile is of Tim Winter, a Londoner who joined the faith back in 1979, long before the present paroxysm of Islamophobia that identifies Islam with terrorism. Winter recounts the experience of previous converts in Great Britain, going back to the Victorian age, and takes a critical look at the disconnect between the preoccupations of Muslim leaders in the West today and the needs of their flock. To bridge the gap between both of his identities, Winter dedicates his days to preparing the next generation of Muslim thinkers to be better equipped to engage with British society as dean of the Cambridge Muslim College. He hopes to showcase what he already believes to be true ― Muslims are an important contribution to what makes Europe great and will only continue to be so. “The moral resources in Islamic tradition are limitless,” Ahmed quotes Winter as saying, “in terms of love for neighbor, love for the other, solid family values and respecting the old ― all these things that Europe is starting to lose are present in the ethical teachings of Islam.” Ahmed also profiles 58-year-old Annette Bellaoui, who converted to Islam nearly two decades ago. The Dane proudly wears the hijab and through her “Missing Voices” program, tries to challenge “the media-enhanced idea” of Muslim women as “poor benighted creatures who sit at home shrouded in black.” In fact, Bellaoui is the opposite of that, Ahmed says, openly confronting her family’s disapproval of her decision to convert and Islamophobic actions with brave humor rather than hostility. Previous articles in the series include Ahmed’s introduction to his project in which he defines his mission: “In sharing these stories of people who have chosen to adopt my faith,” he writes, “I aspire to shake up people’s perceptions of Muslims and Islam.” We also published last week the tale of a self-proclaimed “hillbilly,” also from Denmark, who has become a popular imam in his country. Next week, in the final installment, we’ll look at the journey of a female German convert who was once a well-known presenter on MTV Europe. Reporting from Tunis, Ioana Moldovan surveys the many factors ― joblessness, poverty, corruption, injustice and a sense of indignity, to name a few ― driving some youth in Tunisia to become radicalized. Speaking to those who have returned from terrorist camps, families of those whose sons’ turned to extremism and activists working to help rehabilitate militants who come back, she paints a picture of the complexity of a country still grappling with how to respond to the poisoned promises of the Tunisian revolution and the Arab Spring it helped kickstart. She also depicts the worries of many that fighters returning from Syria or Iraq will foment terrorism at home. Ultimately, though, she finds that, “One of the most influential ways to counter terrorism stems from a mother’s effort to keep her son from the arms of radicalization.” Whether it’s text messages, phone calls or sheer guilt, terrorists all seem to have a “weak spot” for their mothers. In another indication that Europe is turning away from populism, the British electorate last week vastly weakened the mandate for Brexit by failing to give British Prime Minister Theresa May a parliamentary majority. Taking in the results, HuffPost UK contributor Ali Reza Naraghi writes that “there has been a political eruption of historic proportions in British politics” as the Labour Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, “defied the odds without resorting to the politics of cynicism that has defined our politics” by advancing solidly in the election. “Whichever way you slice it,” says Naraghi, “Theresa May is finished. The Labour victory in this election is the fact that we now know that there is a viable alternative to Tory austerity. ... [Corbyn] has recharged democracy with offering a genuine choice that ignites the hope that has made Labour electable again. He has opened the political space for a debate about a range of progressive platforms that will transform this country. Whatever happens, such a fundamental shift cannot be reversed.” Other highlights in The WorldPost this week: Sessions Launches Team Trump’s Russia Counteroffensive In Russia, State TV And The Internet Tell A Tale Of Two Protests Trump’s War To ‘Annihilate’ ISIS Is Raising Civilian Casualties The ‘Tale Of Two Kensingtons’: London’s Borough Of Extreme Rich And Poor Artificial Intelligence And The Future Of Work WHO WE ARE     EDITORS: Nathan Gardels, Co-Founder and Executive Advisor to the Berggruen Institute, is the Editor-in-Chief of The WorldPost. Kathleen Miles is the Executive Editor of The WorldPost. Farah Mohamed is the Managing Editor of The WorldPost. Alex Gardels and Peter Mellgard are the Associate Editors of The WorldPost. Suzanne Gaber is the Editorial Assistant of The WorldPost. Rosa O’Hara is the Social Editor of The WorldPost. Katie Nelson is News Director at HuffPost, overseeing The WorldPost and HuffPost’s news coverage. Nick Robins-Early and Jesselyn Cook are World Reporters. EDITORIAL BOARD: Nicolas Berggruen, Nathan Gardels, Arianna Huffington, Eric Schmidt (Google Inc.), Pierre Omidyar (First Look Media), Juan Luis Cebrian (El Pais/PRISA), Walter Isaacson (Aspen Institute/TIME-CNN), John Elkann (Corriere della Sera, La Stampa), Wadah Khanfar (Al Jazeera) and Yoichi Funabashi (Asahi Shimbun). VICE PRESIDENT OF OPERATIONS: Dawn Nakagawa. CONTRIBUTING EDITORS: Moises Naim (former editor of Foreign Policy), Nayan Chanda (Yale/Global; Far Eastern Economic Review) and Katherine Keating (One-On-One). Sergio Munoz Bata and Parag Khanna are Contributing Editors-At-Large. The Asia Society and its ChinaFile, edited by Orville Schell, is our primary partner on Asia coverage. Eric X. Li and the Chunqiu Institute/Fudan University in Shanghai and Guancha.cn also provide first person voices from China. We also draw on the content of China Digital Times. Seung-yoon Lee is The WorldPost link in South Korea. Jared Cohen of Google Ideas provides regular commentary from young thinkers, leaders and activists around the globe. Bruce Mau provides regular columns from MassiveChangeNetwork.com on the “whole mind” way of thinking. Patrick Soon-Shiong is Contributing Editor for Health and Medicine. ADVISORY COUNCIL: Members of the Berggruen Institute’s 21st Century Council and Council for the Future of Europe serve as theAdvisory Council — as well as regular contributors — to the site. These include, Jacques Attali, Shaukat Aziz, Gordon Brown, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Juan Luis Cebrian, Jack Dorsey, Mohamed El-Erian, Francis Fukuyama, Felipe Gonzalez, John Gray, Reid Hoffman, Fred Hu, Mo Ibrahim, Alexei Kudrin, Pascal Lamy, Kishore Mahbubani, Alain Minc, Dambisa Moyo, Laura Tyson, Elon Musk, Pierre Omidyar, Raghuram Rajan, Nouriel Roubini, Nicolas Sarkozy, Eric Schmidt, Gerhard Schroeder, Peter Schwartz, Amartya Sen, Jeff Skoll, Michael Spence, Joe Stiglitz, Larry Summers, Wu Jianmin, George Yeo, Fareed Zakaria, Ernesto Zedillo, Ahmed Zewail and Zheng Bijian. From the Europe group, these include: Marek Belka, Tony Blair, Jacques Delors, Niall Ferguson, Anthony Giddens, Otmar Issing, Mario Monti, Robert Mundell, Peter Sutherland and Guy Verhofstadt. MISSION STATEMENT The WorldPost is a global media bridge that seeks to connect the world and connect the dots. Gathering together top editors and first person contributors from all corners of the planet, we aspire to be the one publication where the whole world meets. We not only deliver breaking news from the best sources with original reportage on the ground and user-generated content; we bring the best minds and most authoritative as well as fresh and new voices together to make sense of events from a global perspective looking around, not a national perspective looking out. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

05 мая 2016, 01:03

Гросс: роботизация приведет к "социализму поневоле"

Билл Гросс, один из самых успешных управляющих за всю историю современных рынков облигаций, считает, что власти западных стран в дальнейшем будут вынуждены все активнее печатать деньги для поддержки своих экономик и населения.