В Китае 18-24 октября 2017 года прошёл XIX съезд Коммунистической партии — крупнейшее событие в жизни страны, обсуждаемое до сих пор.
For the past couple of months, we've frequently shared our views that Europe's MiFID II regulations, which force investment banks to charge for equity research instead of "giving it away" in return for trading commissions, could be a wake up call for 1,000's of highly paid research analysts who were about to have their true 'value add' subjected to a market bidding test. Here are just a couple of examples: Deutsche Bank Forced To Slash Fixed-Income Research Price By Half On Lackluster Demand New European Regulations Set To Crush Equity Research Budgets By $300 Million Macquarie Identifies The Winners And Losers Of MiFID II Sticker Shock: Small Hedge Funds Seen Ditching I-Banking Research Under MiFID Now, per a note from Reuters, it seems that a growing number of equity research analysts are finally waking up to the fact that hedge funds don't really have a burning desire to drop $400,000 per year on reports drafted by a 23-year-old recent college grad that do little more than summarize free SEC filings. Who could have known? Having covered financial stocks at big and small banks for more than two decades, David Hilder was accustomed to the ebb and flow of Wall Street job cuts and hiring sprees. But he threw in the towel as an analyst last year after deciding customers simply will not pay what it costs to produce research in the years ahead, especially after a regulation called MiFID II upended the pricing model. “It certainly seemed that the difficulty of being paid for research was going to increase, not decrease,” said Hilder, who is now trying to reinvent himself as an investment banker. Many share Hilder’s grim outlook. Reuters spoke to dozens of current and former analysts who moved to independent research shops or investment firms, joined companies in industries they covered, or have launched new careers or are considering doing so, after nearly a decade of cost-cutting that is likely to accelerate under MiFID. Not surprisingly, a study from Frost Consulting recently found that major global investment banks have slashed their equity research budgets by more than half, from a peak of $8.2 billion in 2008 to $3.4 billion in 2017. And, as we noted back in the summer, McKinsey & Co. thinks the pain is just getting started and that banks will have no choice but to fire a ton of equity research analysts who write a bunch of stuff that no one ever reads...which seems like a reasonable guess. Europe’s impending ban on free research will cost hundreds of analysts their jobs with banks set to cut about $1.2 billion of investment on the area, according to a report by McKinsey & Co. The consultancy estimates the $4 billion that the top-10 sell-side banks currently spend on research annually is likely to fall by 30 percent as clients become pickier about what they pay for, McKinsey Partner Roger Rudisuli said in an interview. Investment banks’ cash equity research headcount has fallen 12 percent to 3,900 since 2011 compared with as much as 40 percent in sales and trading, leaving the area facing “big cuts” to catch up, he said. “Two to three global banking players will preserve their status in the new era, winning the execution arms race and dominating trading in equities around the globe,” McKinsey said in a report Wednesday, which Rudisuli helped write. “Over the coming five years, banks will need to make hard choices and play to their strengths. Not only will the top ranks be thinned out, there will be shakeouts in regional markets.” Meanwhile, in light of the MiFID II writing on the wall, Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr admits that his research has become a bit morbid of late... Evercore ISI analyst Glenn Schorr recently titled a research note “Writing My Obituary,” with a follow-up called “Stay of (my) Execution.” “For the last few years, it’s been all about morgue humor like ‘flat is the new up’ and ‘no bonus, but at least you get to keep your job,'” said one former analyst who recently left a large bank but would not be quoted by name to avoid upsetting former or future employers. “Contrast that with Silicon Valley,” he continued. “It’s not even the money; it’s the optimism that I envy. Those guys are building a brighter future and this just feels like death.” Sean McGowan spent 25 years covering consumer stocks at small and mid-size brokers before losing his job early last year amid broad cost-cutting. “The more I started to do research on the impact of MiFID and what was likely to happen to the industry, the more I realized that going back to that world would be like swimming upstream,” said McGowan. “A lot of the jobs on the sell-side are going to disappear and inevitably some of the more enjoyable parts will be peeled back. I don’t want to haggle someone about the price of a phone call.” Of course, the inevitable result of these changes is that the world's hedge funds will have employ their "buy the fucking dip" strategies without the support of 50 research analysts...maybe just 20 instead.
Статья о производителе мороженого Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream Holdings и его утверждении как национального бренда на американском рынке была опубликована в Forbes 14 августа 1995 года
Экономика КНР напоминает профессору Катасонову самолет, который сегодня поднялся на невероятную высоту, а все остальные летают ниже. Руководителям КНР есть чем гордиться. Однако для этого чудо-самолета на земле нет ни одной посадочной полосы. Как китайский самолет будет совершать посадку, не знают даже пилоты, сидящие в кабине этого летательного аппарата.
В Китае 18-24 октября 2017 года прошёл XIX съезд Коммунистической партии – крупнейшее событие в жизни страны, обсуждаемое до сих пор. Оглашённые на партийном съезде планы построения «социализма с китайской спецификой» захватывают дух. В средней перспективе поставлена задача сделать Китай среднезажиточным обществом, ликвидировать к 2020 году остатки бедности (на сегодняшний день в стране 43 млн нуждающихся), продолжать курс...
По оценке McKinsey, к 2020 году рынок охватит 600 городов, а вся индустрия будет оцениваться $400 миллиардов. А к 2025 году на интеллектуальные города будет приходиться 60% мирового ВВП.
Застройщик Belmont Partners, принадлежащий подконтрольной Биллу Гейтсу инвестгруппе Cascade Investment, приобрел огромный участок земли к западу Финикса (штат Аризона) для строительства нового "умного" города Белмонт. Миллиардер и основатель Microsoft вложил в проект $80 миллионов.
Authored by Ronald-Peter Stoferle via The Mises Institute, The vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump has baffled the main stream and the establishment. Most market participants and observers didn't believe ex ante that they were possible, and as a result were completely surprised when the unexpected happened. Ever since the term populism has become socio-politically relevant in modern-day public discourse. Google Trends illustrates that there was a veritable explosion in search queries for the term “populism” last year: Source: Google But, populism - regardless of its political flavor - merely represents a symptom. The generally surprising results were consequences of the economical erosion of the past years. Although there are idiosyncrasies in every country that foster the rise of populist movements, the ailing foundation of the economy provides the fertile soil and is the major driver of people's dissatisfaction and the associated voting decisions. To assert that populism is the reason for this process of political change is in our opinion far too simplistic. An analysis of stating that economic erosion is responsible for the rise in populism is supported by by a McKinsey study, which examines the trend in real household incomes in 25 industrialized nations. McKinsey arrived at the striking conclusion that real incomes of 65 to 70 percent of households in developed countries either stagnated or even declined between 2005 and 2014. The following chart illustrates the trend in household incomes in selected countries. (The y axis shows the percentage of households with stnating or declining income between 2005 and 2014): Source: McKinsey, Incrementum AG The momentousness of this study becomes obvious when considering that the object under review are 25 industrialized countries with a population of more than 800 million people, generating 50 percent of global GDP. Moreover, numerous studies show that the opportunities and expectations of coming generations to earn more than their parents have worsened significantly. While the probability that members of the baby boomer generation would earn more than their parents was 62%, this probability has declined to 50% for generations born since 1980.2 Income equality has deteriorated dramatically over time as well. The share of national income earned by the bottom 90% of the US population has decreased from 66% in 1980 to 50% today. Contrary to the picture painted by numerous macroeconomic statistics, the economic situation is apparently not as bright as it is often portrayed. What cannot be quantified by statistical aggregates is the cause of the economic erosion suffered by the middle class, which can ultimately be traced back to our monetary system. The low interest rate environment orchestrated by central banks has not only failed to solve our economic problems, but is – in keeping with the business cycle theory developed by Mises and Hayek – the very cause of the business cycle. Apart from creating the business cycle, ZIRP and NIRP-policies of central banks also result in an ever more pronounced concentration of incomes and wealth. In this context, it is crucial to understand the so-called Cantillon effect, which we have also discussed comprehensively in our book. As we point out there, when newly created money is introduced, it enters the economy at discrete points, it cannot be distributed evenly across the entire economy. Instead, every expansion of the money supply results in a transfer of wealth: the early receivers of new money can purchase goods at their existing prices and thus gain purchasing power, whereas later receivers of new money can only buy goods at prices that have already increased, and are losing purchasing power as a result. In today's monetary system, it is primarily commercial banks, the government and large corporations with good financial market access that are benefiting as the earliest receivers of newly created money, while all other sectors are losing out – the further removed from the source of money creation they are, the bigger their losses. This concentration effect is inter alia reflected by real estate prices in international financial centers such as London or New York, as well as in large discrepancies between urban and rural areas. Maps showing the distribution of votes in the US election and the Brexit referendum can clearly be interpreted from this perspective as well: Source: Wikimedia Commons, Incrementum AG It is conspicuous that the Trump election and Brexit met with high approval rates in largely rural areas in the US and Great Britain, while metropolitan areas tended to vote in favor of the status quo (i.e., for Hillary Clinton or Remain). The economic situation in these regions undoubtedly plays a role in this. While large cities have often benefited from the fiat money system due to their proximity to politics and financial markets, many rural areas are drying up economically. These regions were often hit the hardest by deindustrialization. The following chart shows the discrepancy between productivity growth and real household incomes. After World War II income and productivity growth tended to track each other closely, but since the 1980s a growing divergence can be observed: Source: EPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Incrementum AG The same applies to hourly wages as well: between 1973 and 2015 net productivity grew by 73.4%, while the hourly wage of the average US worker rose by a mere 11.1% in inflation-adjusted terms, and thus effectively stagnated. Viewed from this perspective, it is not surprising that voters are increasingly warming up to populist ideas.
Председатель ВЭБа Сергей Горьков рассказал Forbes о проблемах банка, его новой стратегии, игре в Го и джиу-джитсу, а также о роли Германа Грефа в своей судьбе
Только что в скольково прошла конфа по распределенной энергетике - http://www.eprussia.ru/news/base/2017/308497.htm,декларируемые выводы по ней: ...для российской экономики распределенная генерация принесет ощутимый экономический эффект, который будет достигнут благодаря снижению затрат на развитие сетевого комплекса и крупной генерации, повышению уровня надежности энергоснабжения в ситуации возможных природных катаклизмов или кибератак, сокращению уровня выбросов парниковых газов и расширению возможностей для потребительского выбора. Данное исследование подготовлено специалистами Энергетического центра бизнес-школы Сколково совместно с ИНЭИ РАН, Центром стратегических разработок, НТЦ ЕЭС и компанией McKinsey.... В этом абзаце прекрасно, как говорится все, чеканность формулировок - эффект за счет дегенерации, катаклизмы и кибератаки, парниковые газы... хм... Если посмотреть конкретику, а не как там они пишут "кейсы". Россия сейчас это несколько узлов и они будут только усиливаться (вот приводил что для нас лорды напланировали), 32 комментария
Trump Declares New World-Trade Order (WSJ) Trump brings tough trade message in vision for Asia (Reuters) Trump Offers Trade to Asian Nations But Only If They Play Fair (BBG) Flynn Probed Over Alleged Plan to Send Back Turkish Cleric (WSJ) GOP’s Dueling Tax Overhauls Struggle to Pass a Key Red Ink Test (BBG) Trump's CNN attacks may hobble legal case to block AT&T-Time Warner deal (Reuters) Bigger Than Black Friday, Alibaba’s ‘Singles Day’ Faces Fatigue in China (WSJ) AT&T's Clash in D.C. Threatens Chill on Consolidation in Media (BBG) Manafort Charges Renew Questions About Skadden’s Work in Ukraine (BBG) McKinsey Hired Officials’ Children in Saudi Arabia (WSJ) Bitcoin slides by over $1000 in less than 48 hours (Reuters) GE’s $100 Billion Wipeout Heralds Reckoning for an American Icon (BBG) Brexit never? Britain can still change its mind, says Article 50 author (Reuters) Toshiba Looks to Raise $5.3 Billion in Share Offering (WSJ) Las Vegas Massacre May Add More Than $1 Billion to Insurer Costs (BBG) Snap’s Rise and Fall: How a Splashy IPO Stifled Its Doubters (WSJ) EU to preserve Iran nuclear deal: Mogherini (Reuters) China Bans Actress Zhao Wei From Stock Trading for Five Years (BBG) Microsoft and Google Turn to AI to Catch Amazon in the Cloud (BBG) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - The acting chief of the Department of Homeland Security Elaine Duke rebuffed the wishes of the White House this week when she refused to end humanitarian protections for immigrants living in the U.S., people familiar with the deliberations said. on.wsj.com/2hpduZ1 - Musical.ly Inc, the maker of a lip-syncing app popular among teens and tweens, has agreed to be acquired by Chinese news and information site Beijing Bytedance Technology Co for as much as $1 billion, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2hnaPyZ - Alabama's special election for a U.S. Senate seat was rattled Thursday by allegations that Republican nominee Roy Moore initiated a sexual encounter with a 14-year-old girl several decades ago, when he was 32. on.wsj.com/2hoMTvc - A day after disagreements between AT&T Inc and the U.S. government over the company's proposed takeover of Time Warner Inc spilled out into the open, AT&T Chief Executive Randall Stephenson said on Thursday he had no reason to believe that antitrust enforcers' examination of the deal was influenced by President Donald Trump. on.wsj.com/2hpMeJJ - News Corp reported a 5 percent increase in revenue in the most recent quarter, with every segment of the company posting gains driven by positive currency fluctuations, acquisitions in Australia and U.K. and continued growth of its digital real-estate business. on.wsj.com/2hnVEWe FT * Britain will provide $2 billion in credit guarantees to Saudi Aramco IPO-ARMO.SE so it can buy British goods and services more easily, but denied it was part of efforts to persuade the energy giant to list its shares in London. * The European Union is asking Britain to accept that Northern Ireland may need to remain in the European customs union after Brexit, according to an update of the negotiations seen by the Financial Times. * British Prime Minister Theresa May is ready to increase Britain’s offer to the European Union over the Brexit divorce bill. NYT - Senate Republicans outlined their vision on Thursday for overhauling the tax code, proposing a one-year delay in U.S. President Donald Trump's top priority of cutting the corporate tax rate while reinstating some prized tax breaks used by middle-class families. nyti.ms/2zvWNQ3 - Randall Stephenson, chief executive of telecommunications giant AT&T Inc, said selling CNN in order to push through his company's $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc has never been and will never be on the table. nyti.ms/2zwPho5 - The Walt Disney Co reported weaker-than-expected quarterly earnings on Thursday, partly because of bleak results at ABC, an animated feature film that ended up on the shelf and light "Cars 3" toy sales. nyti.ms/2zwZUr6 - Reddit Inc has banned the online community of "incels," or men who blame women for their involuntary celibacy and sometimes advocate rape, as part of a new crackdown on forums that glorify and incite violence. nyti.ms/2zx7WAd - Chinese glassmaker Fuyao Glass America beat back a unionization bid at a plant in Ohio, winning a key victory in an important test of the way Chinese companies handle employee relations as they increase their holdings in the United States. nyti.ms/2zz1oRP Britain The Times - Britain's economy will trail the Eurozone for each of the coming three years as its growth falls to the bottom of the European Union's 28 members, according to official forecasts from Brussels. bit.ly/2jeN24C - Britain's Office for National Statistics is planning to ask the public how much time they spend on sharing-economy activities such as Airbnb or Uber Technologies Inc to produce a measure of GDP that is more representative of the modern world. bit.ly/2hq0ORw The Guardian - United Kingdom is finalising arrangements for a $2 billion loan guarantee to Saudi Arabia Oil Co IPO-ARMO.SE, but the UK government has denied the support is in any way linked to the state-owned firm's potential listing on the London Stock Exchange. bit.ly/2hogBjS - British Finance Minister Philip Hammond is being urged to use the budget to reform universal credit to support younger voters, amid growing concerns over the governments flagship benefits programme. bit.ly/2jd4TZL The Telegraph - British Prime Minister Theresa May warned pro-European Tory rebels that she will not "tolerate" any attempts to undermine Brexit as she unveils plans to enshrine in law the date that Britain leaves the EU. bit.ly/2ho74tg - British hopes of opening Brexit trade and transition talks this December were thrown into renewed doubt as it emerged that Ireland is making fresh demands over the Northern Ireland border question. bit.ly/2ho4oLR Sky News - Britain's energy market regulator Ofgem is to stop gas and electricity suppliers from charging as much as 900 pounds ($1,182) when they forcibly install pre-payment meters in households struggling to pay bills. bit.ly/2jewryb - Activist investor TCI Fund Management called for a shareholder meeting to vote on removing London Stock Exchange Group Plc chairman Donald Brydon, saying the company had not explained why chief executive Xavier Rolet was leaving. bit.ly/2jc8R4S The Independent - John Lewis has launched a slew of products off the back of its Christmas advert, hoping to cash in on the campaign which has surged in recent years to become the UK's most hotly anticipated on the high street. ind.pn/2jfaqPB
Президент Петр Порошенко поздравил компанию McKinsey&Company с 15-летием деятельности в Украине и представил основные достижения Украины на пути реформ во время выступления на конференции "Усиление потенциала роста Украины: перспективы будущего поколения", которая была организована компанией по случаю юбилея.
Украинский президент сообщил о том, что судебная реформа должна завершить всю систему борьбы с коррупцией.
Jonathan Knowles/Getty Images The widely accepted view that strategy and execution are separable activities sets companies up for failure in a fast-paced world. One of us (Paul) is a strategy scholar and economist; the other (Amy) studies organizational behavior and operations management. We came together to consider why strategy so often breaks down in the execution stage. While conducting research on recent dramatic cases of strategic failure in different industries, involving vastly different business models and strategies, we discovered a common pattern: What started as small gaps in execution spiraled into business failures when initial strategies were not altered based on new information provided by experience. These companies’ strategies were viewed by their top executives as analytically sound; performance gaps were blamed on execution. Take the notable failure at Wells Fargo last year. Executives formulated a distinctive strategy of cross-selling, which had much to recommend it. Selling additional products to current customers leverages the costs of establishing those relationships in the first place, and serving more and more of their financial service needs (to grab a greater “share of wallet”) is appealing, in theory. Wells Fargo was even good in implementing the strategy — up to a point. Yet the strategy eventually hit the realities of customers’ finite wallets (their spending power) and real needs. Cementing the business failure, salespeople appeared to believe that senior managers would not tolerate underperformance, and found it easier to fabricate false accounts than to report what they were learning in the field. The widespread nature of the behavior strongly suggests that the fraud was not the result of some corrupt salespeople. Rather, it points to a system set up to fail — by the pernicious combination of a fixed strategy and executives who appeared unwilling to hear bad news. (From the perspective of the senior management at many companies, missing sales targets is a failure in the execution of an analytically sound strategy.) Insight center The Gap Between Strategy and Execution Sponsored by the Brightline Initiative Aligning the big picture with the day-to-day. An alternative perspective on strategy and execution — one that we argue is more in tune with the nature of value creation in a world marked by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) — conceives of strategy as a hypothesis rather than a plan. Like all hypotheses, it starts with situation assessment and analysis — strategy’s classic tools. Also like all hypotheses, it must be tested through action. With this lens, encounters with customers provide data that is of ongoing interest to senior executives — vital inputs to dynamic strategy formulation. We call this approach “strategy as learning,” which contrasts sharply with the view of strategy as a stable, analytically rigorous plan for execution in the market. Strategy as learning is an executive activity characterized by ongoing cycles of testing and adjusting, fueled by data that can only be obtained through execution. Imagine if Wells Fargo had adopted a strategy-as-learning perspective. Its top managers would have taken repeated instances of missed targets or false accounts as data to help them assess the efficacy of the cross-selling strategy. This learning would then have triggered a much-needed adjustment of the original hypothesis. The key indicator of a strategy-as-learning approach lies in how managers interpret early signs of gaps between results and plans. Are they seen as evidence that people are underperforming? Or as data that indicates the initial assumptions were flawed, triggering further tests? Volkswagen’s software that allowed diesel engines in its vehicles to cheat on emissions tests is another case of a top-down fixed strategy that suffered in implementation. VW’s strategic ambition to become the largest car company in the world required it to conquer the U.S. market. To help VW stand out and win in the U.S. market, its executives formulated a strategy of developing so-called clean-diesel vehicles that leveraged the company’s core competence. As was the case at Wells Fargo, VW’s culture — specifically, its executives’ lack of tolerance for pushback from people lower in the organization — seems to have played a major role in its diesel-emissions fiasco. Bob Lutz, who held leadership roles at General Motors, BMW, Ford, and Chrysler, describes a “reign of terror” that had long prevailed at VW. This, he says, undoubtedly contributed to VW’s ignoring evidence that the claim that the diesel technology could comply with environmental regulations was too good to be true. In this way, VW leaders lost out on the opportunity to revisit and update the strategy. Meanwhile, engineers had developed software to fool the regulators — postponing the inevitable. Cheating and cover-ups are natural byproducts of a top-down culture that does not accept “No” or “It can’t be done” for an answer. But combining this with the approach that treats strategy and execution as separable is a sure recipe for failure. At both Wells Fargo and VW, disconfirming data was available for a surprisingly long time and was not acted on by senior management. Signs that corners were being cut were ignored. And the illusion that brilliant top-down strategies were working persisted — for a time. We are not saying top-down fixed strategies necessarily lead to fraud. Rather, our point is that these two visible examples of strategic failure illuminate the risks of failing to integrate strategy and execution through a deliberate and continual executive-learning process. Strategy as learning requires senior executives to engage in an ongoing dialogue with operations across all levels and departments. The people who create and deliver products and services for customers are privy to the most important strategic data the company has available. And the strategic learning process involves actively seeking deviations that challenge assumptions underpinning current strategy. Deviations and surprises must be welcomed for their informative value in adapting the strategy. Executives who adopt a strategy-as-learning framework understand that pushing harder on execution may only aggravate the problem if shortcomings are, in fact, evidence of inadequate market intelligence or flawed assumptions about the business model. Companies that fuse strategy and execution, continually making adjustments and periodic dramatic pivots, demonstrate what strategy as learning can look like in action. Consider the steady strategic morphing of Amazon from online bookseller to global retail powerhouse. Or take ING Bank in the Netherlands, which adopted an agile approach to strategy and execution that uses “squads” as the company’s “nervous system” to sense changes in customer needs and competitive realities and to give senior executives the data they need to rethink strategy and respond. These and other cases exemplify a fundamentally different (iterative) approach to strategy making. Of course, embracing a learning approach at the top of the organization is not a new idea. What we suggest has much in common with the notion of execution as learning, introduced in HBR some years ago. Our ideas are also consistent with current work on organizational agility — defined as an ability to sense and respond quickly to changes in the environment. (See these articles by Jeff Gothelf, McKinsey, and the Boston Consulting Group.) What is new is the idea that closing the gap between strategy and execution may not be about better execution after all, but rather about better learning — about more dialogue between strategy and operations, a greater flow of information from customers to executives, and more experiments. In today’s fast-paced world, strategy as learning must go hand-in-hand with execution as learning — bypassing the idea that either a strategy or the execution is flawed — to recognize that both are necessarily flawed and both are valuable sources of learning, improvement, and reinvention. Some of the research for this article was supported by Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management’s Baillet Latour Chair in Error Management and its senior researcher, Vincent Giolito.
Технологический скачок благоприятствует созданию новых проектов, которым достанется большой кусок банковского пирога
Bank and reinsurer have continued to use the professional services firms outside S Africa
US and Canadian shale operators have adjusted completion designs and increased proppant volumes to maximize well productivity. McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI) expects this trend will continue at $50/bbl oil, particularly in the Permian basin.
В Центре Международной Торговли прошло главное событие мира рекламы и бизнеса - второй Национальный рекламный форум-2017. Эксперты и ведущие представители власти, агентств, медиа и брендов обсудили важные отраслевые вопросы и попытались найти способы эффективного сотрудничества.
Бестселлер Мартина Форда "Восхождение роботов: технологии и угроза будущего без работы" назван лучшей книгой для бизнеса 2015 г. по версии издания Financial Times и консалтинговой компании McKinsey & Company.