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Нerbert Henzler: "В качестве приглашенного профессора и сооснователя Московской школы управления Сколково и члена координационного комитета Германо-российского энергетического форума я недавно вновь побывал в Москве и Санкт-Петербурге. Разговоры с множеством менеджеров, коллегами из компании McKinsey, профессорами, а также разнообразные впечатления вовсе не однозначны, вернее, они противоречивы. Хотя ВВП третий год подряд снижается, не возникает ощущения, что кризис занимает прочные позиции в обоих крупных городах.
К сожалению, в основной своей массе общество мыслит шаблонами, которые ему искусственно навязываются современными средствами массовой так называемой информации. И эти шаблоны часто мешают ему видеть и правильно понимать происходящее. 1. Газовый обзор от Азии до Африки http://naspravdi.info/novosti/gazovyy-obzor-ot-azii-do-afriki Замечательное обозрение Павла Богомолова о положении дел с разработкой, добычей, переработкой и транспортировкой газа в регионах, о которых мы нечасто вспоминаем.Результат такого невнимания – то, что некоторые внешнеполитические и экономические события внезапно становятся «сенсацией», которые, на самом деле, «готовятся» долгие годы, подчиняясь собственной логике, живущей в совершенно нормальной динамике. В наше время планета стала настолько маленькой, что события, происходящие в далекой Африке, в Центральной Азии вполне способны менять расклад сил в Европе, в Америке, влиять на дела в нашей России. 2. Washington Post: Германия уже устала расплачиваться за санкции против России http://naspravdi.info/novosti/washington-post-germaniya-uzhe-ustala-rasplachivatsya-za-sankcii-protiv-rossii «На Германию приходится почти 40% от потерь западных стран. В то время как другие геополитически значимые участники рынка, такие как Великобритания, Франция и Соединённые Штаты, затронуты санкциям в гораздо меньшей степени» 3. А туда ли мы идем? http://naspravdi.info/novosti/tuda-li-my-idem Без лишнего жонглирования словесами. Просто – выдержки, цитаты из недавнего доклада «О неравенстве в мире», который стал плодом работы сотни экономистов из самых разных стран. Просто цифры… 4. Впечатления из России http://naspravdi.info/novosti/vpechatleniya-iz-rossii Нerbert Henzler: "В качестве приглашенного профессора и сооснователя Московской школы управления Сколково и члена координационного комитета Германо-российского энергетического форума я недавно вновь побывал в Москве и Санкт-Петербурге. Разговоры с множеством менеджеров, коллегами из компании McKinsey, профессорами, а также разнообразные впечатления вовсе не однозначны, вернее, они противоречивы. Хотя ВВП третий год подряд снижается, не возникает ощущения, что кризис занимает прочные позиции в обоих крупных городах.
joshua sortino/unsplash Technological innovations have radically transformed the business landscape in many ways over the last two centuries, from the introduction of steam power to the market conquest of radial-ply tires. Research by McKinsey & Company and the McKinsey Global Institute shows that digitization is having the same radical impact. In particular, our research shows how digitization can significantly hurt incumbent firms in many industries — depleting as much as half the revenue growth and one-third of earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) growth of companies that neglect to embrace digital innovations. It is not too late for incumbents to reverse the digital curse and re-create a more profitable growth path if they are willing and able to invest more in digital than their peers and take the offensive by reshuffling their activity portfolios and beefing up remaining activities with new business models. On top of that, incumbents would be wise to choose a “platform play” — creating value by intermediating in transactions between other parties, such as suppliers and consumers — because it opens the way to capture more value in disrupted industry chains. Despite the demonstrated benefits of this path, which we call “digital reinvention,” only a minority of companies have fully embraced it. In our early research on 2016 data we had found that only 16% of companies had taken steps toward reinvention, meaning they restructured their portfolios (shedding declining businesses and expanding profitable ones) and poured more money than their peers into an aggressive digital strategy based on new platform business models. In more recent research in mid-2017, our data from 1,650 firms around the world still confirms that still less than 20% of companies take the path of “digital reinvention.” We conclude that, despite warnings from ourselves and others, most incumbent firms are failing to adjust to the digital era. Hence, our new research, which focuses on understanding how to encourage more frequent (and more profitable) digital reinvention. We found six important and statistically robust factors that predict the probability that an incumbent company will choose the path of being a reinventor. They are, in order of importance: 1. Obsess about turbulence on the horizon. In general, incumbents tend to be disrupted because they neglect signals of turbulence. On the contrary, companies that understand the degree of digital turbulence are the most eager to go on the offensive. Those in the most digitally advanced sectors, such as high tech, already feel the pressure of digitization and are more inclined to take the offensive. In our survey, we found that one-fourth of high-tech companies are on the offensive, 2.5 times more than across all firms and sectors. In contrast, the automotive industry has barely half the rate of digital reinventors. Even more interesting are differences within industries, where the perception of risk drives action. In the high-tech industry, we found that when companies conclude that their current model is not viable and must be fully adapted (versus making only marginal digital adjustments to the existing model), they digitally reinvent themselves 40% more often than the industry average. The tipping point for action is different by industry — in high-tech, companies often make the leap when cannibalization is perceived to hit 25% of their traditional revenue; in banking, the tipping point of perceived cannibalization risk is about 35%. In any case, at those tipping points the decision becomes relatively easy, as digital rules. 2. Understand all risks, not only those from startups. One mistake incumbents often make is to look at turbulence signals only from digital entrants. But for every digital startup in an industry, there also is likely be an incumbent reinventor in the making. Imagine a firm in an industry with nine competitors. One competitor is a digital startup within the industry, one is a digital startup from an adjacent industry. The remaining seven are incumbents within the industry. These examples aren’t purely hypothetical; they’re estimates of a typical industry structure, based on our data. Companies typically face a mix of traditional competitors, new entrants within their industry, and entrants from adjacent fields. However, we also found that, on average, three of these traditional rivals are likely to have already chosen to forcefully engage in digitization, and one of them is probably already morphing into a digital reinventor. In total this means the company in question faces offensive attacks from three digital players, not just one, and one of the attackers is a known competitor that has chosen to break from the established conduct of the industry — the so-called “red queen effect.” Furthermore, the more digitized an industry, the more often incumbent companies have jumped into digital reinvention. From an average of three offensive players, we found that grows to 5.5, or more than 50% of total competition in highly digitized high-tech industries. To become a reinventor itself, a corporation would be wise not only to track new digital entrants but take a good look at traditional competitors that can become digital reinventors and must keep an eye out for established companies crossing their industry border. 3. Deliver a dual offensive: core and diversification. Today, many companies have in mind to defend their core business first and attack via diversification second. A typical incumbent focuses only about 30% of its resources on activities outside its core business. By contrast, true digital reinventors devote an equal amount of resources to revising core business models and investing outside the core. However, we found that focusing only on non-core activities may be a mistake. First, revenue and, to a lesser extent, profit growth tend to be diluted though diversification as companies take time to build a presence in each new field. Further, companies’ assets and competencies outside the core are not yet as comprehensive and established, as they are in an incumbent market. Second, as discussed, core businesses are still the bread and butter for many companies; a digital reinvention in the core may still lead to a better growth path. When digital reinventors increase offensive actions in both core and digital, we find that total revenue as well as profit growth is enhanced. The effect is not large, statistically — it is in the range of 0.5% to 1% of yearly revenue growth on top of base line depending on industry — but the effect is three times larger on profit, and further such an increase builds up over the years. 4. Fix leadership skills first. Many incumbents still face major roadblocks in their digitization journeys. In one way, this is natural, as incumbents have succeeded by establishing robust routines and competencies over the years. In general, the more successful those competencies were at providing non-replicable assets, the more difficult it is to let them go. What we find in our statistical analysis, however, is that companies are more likely to take the path of digital reinvention when leaders are committed to taking action, e.g. CEO sponsoring the program heavily, executive board appointing specific managers in charge of the transformation, etc. 5. Prioritize demand-centered business play. We mentioned earlier that incumbents see higher returns when they shift business models to a platform play – this effect is even greater for incumbents who show the other indicators of digital reinvention. Our new survey reconfirms the finding, but we also find two new nuances. The first is that one reason why digital attackers are often more successful than incumbents is that they select the platform play as their top priority two and an half times as often as incumbents choosing to go for digital reinvention. The second is that a platform model re-centered on the demand side increases the chance of being a digital reinventor, and making better profit inroads. This recipe for digital profitability is the consequence of the potential of large demand network effects, as it is emphasized in the management literature of platforms. 6. Experiment with frontier technologies. Digital reinvention only works if companies master the right digital technology architecture. Consistent with findings in parallel research, we found that digital reinventors ensure that they have adopted the full range of digital technologies, and diffused them across their organization to support mission critical applications and processes. Further, they are already investigating emerging artificial intelligence technologies, such as upgrading machine learning algorithms to deep learning ones, or investing in new generation of smart robotics, as a way to have an edge. Surprisingly, we see no evidence of leapfrogging in our data: companies that kickstart AI without mastering the first wave of digital technologies, such as social media or mobile, are not only rare but also do not get full return on their investments. Companies must master each generation of technology, and fast, in order to become digital reinventors and obtain good returns on their technology investments.
Консалтинговая компания McKinsey и сервис заказа такси Gett подвели итоги хакатона по анализу и обработке больших данных, рассказали vc.ru организаторы мероприятия. Главный приз в 500 тысяч рублей получила команда MacDacHack.
Свежие тренды американского криптосообщества по итогам конференции Blockchain Expo 2017
Joed Barallas/EyeEm/Getty Images Some years ago, we worked with a director of a multinational pharma company who’d been receiving poor grades for engagement and leadership effectiveness. Although he tried to change, nothing seemed to work. As his frustration grew, he started tracking the time he spent with each of his direct reports – and every time he received bad feedback, he pulled out his data and exclaimed, ”But look how much time I spend with everyone!” Things improved when he began a daily, ten-minute mindfulness practice. After a couple of months, people found him more engaging, nicer to work with, and more inspiring. He was surprised and elated by the results. The real surprise? When he pulled out his time-tracking spreadsheet, he saw that he was spending, on average, 21 percent less time with his people. The difference? He was actually there. He came to understand that, even though he was in the same room with someone, he wasn’t always fully present. He let himself become preoccupied with other activities or let his mind drift to other things. And, most of all, he’d listen to his own inner voice when someone was talking. Because of his lack of presence, people felt unheard and frustrated. Our inner voices are the commentaries we lend to our experiences. They often says things like, “I wish he would stop talking.” Or, “I know what she’s going to say next.” Or, “I’ve heard this all before.” Or, “I wonder if Joe has responded to my text?” To truly engage other human beings and create meaningful connections, we need to silence our inner voices and be fully present — and being more mindful can help. As part of the research for our forthcoming book, The Mind of the Leader, we surveyed more than a thousand leaders who indicated that a more mindful presence is the optimal strategy to engage their people, create better connections, and improve performance. Other research bears this out. In a survey of two thousand employees, Bain & Company found that among thirty-three leadership traits — including creating compelling objectives, expressing ideas clearly, and being receptive to input – the ability to be mindfully present (also called centeredness) is the most essential of all. Research also suggests that there’s a direct correlation between leaders’ mindfulness and the well-being and performance of their people. In other words, the more a leader is present with his or her people, the better they will perform. Based on our work, here are some tips and strategies that may help in your quest to be more present in your daily life. Be Here Now Like all CEOs, Dominic Barton, global managing director of McKinsey & Company, has a daily schedule of back-to-back meetings. All of these meetings are important, all include complex information, and most require far-reaching decisions. Under these conditions, being present moment-to-moment, meeting after meeting, is a challenge. But in Dominic’s experience, presence is not a choice. It’s a necessity. “When I’m with people during the day, I’m doing my best to be focused, I’m present with them,” he told us. “Part of this is because I get energy from being with people. But the other part is because if you’re not focused, if you’re not present, it’s discouraging to the other people. They lose motivation. If you’re not present, I think you may as well not have the meeting. It can sometimes be difficult to do, but it’s always important.” The current person in front of you does not know what you were dealing with a moment ago, nor should they. It’s your responsibility to show up and be fully present to effectively utilize the limited time you have with each person you meet. Dominic believes being mindfully present requires discipline and skill. It takes discipline to stay on task—not letting yourself be affected by nagging challenges or distracted by mental chatter. And it requires skill to have the mental ability to stay laser focused and present. When he’s present throughout his day, he finds it deeply gratifying. Being present becomes the cornerstone to getting the most out of every moment with each person. Plan for Presence In his decade as CEO of Campbell Soup Company, Doug Conant developed rituals for physically and psychologically connecting with people at all levels in the company, which he called touchpoints. Further Reading The Mind of the Leader Leadership & Managing People Book Harvard Business Review 30.00 Add to Cart Save Share Every morning, Doug allocated a good chunk of his time to walking around the plant, greeting people, and getting to know them. He would memorize their names and the names of their family members. He would take a genuine interest in their lives. He also wrote handwritten letters of gratitude to recognize extraordinary efforts. And when people in the company were having tough times, he wrote them personal messages of encouragement. During his tenure, he sent more than thirty thousand such letters. To Doug, these behaviors were not just strategies to enhance productivity; they were heartfelt efforts to support his people. Do Less, Be More Gabrielle Thompson, senior vice president at Cisco, has found that when an employee comes to her with a challenge, sometimes it needs a simple solution. But often, the problem just needs to be heard. “Many situations simply need an ear, not action. Oftentimes, problems don’t need solutions, they need presence and time.” As leaders, having the ability to be fully present and listen with an open mind is often the most powerful way to solve issues. As a leader, your role can be simply to create the safe space for people to air their frustrations and process their problems. Through mindful presence, you become the container in which they have space to process the issue, without you stepping in to solve, fix, manipulate, or control the situation. Presence in itself can help resolve the issue. This kind of presence not only solves the problem but also creates greater connection and engagement. Embodied Presence Loren Shuster, chief people officer at the LEGO group, explained that when he has very important meetings or presentations, he takes five minutes to ground himself in his body. He visualizes coming fully alive in each cell of his body. As he explained to us, “When you’re not grounded, when you’re not connected to your body and surrounding environment, you don’t have a strong sense of direction or purpose. You’re just floating. The smallest thing can distract you. This grounding technique helps me clear my mind, recharge my energy, strengthen my instincts, and calm my emotions.” After this five-minute practice, he walks differently, he talks differently. With more gravitas. With more weight. With more vigor. And as a result, he’s able to be more fully present mentally and physically with those around him. It grounds him in the room like a rock. When we have embodied presence, our posture shifts. Rather than slouching, crossing our arms, and literally closing in on ourselves, we assume a more balanced, uplifted, open, and inclusive posture. This includes sitting up straight, with our arms open. This shift in posture can influence how we think, behave, and communicate. In the same way that we can catalyze qualities like confidence through assuming a bold posture, we can induce qualities like awareness, focus, inclusion, and compassion through an uplifted, dignified posture. The act of sitting up and opening up has a positive effect on the chemistry of our brains. It cultivates our capacity for higher functioning thought processes. It gives us access to wisdom that comes from heightened awareness, compassion that comes from increased openness, and confidence that comes from the strength of vertical alignment.
Китай твердо зарекомендовал себя как мировой лидер в области цифровых технологий, ориентированных на потребителя. Это крупнейший в мире рынок электронной торговли, на который приходится более 40% глобальных транзакций, входящий в топ тройку стран, по инвестициям венчурного капитала в автономные транспортные средства, трехмерную печать, робототехнику, дроны и искусственный интеллект (ИИ). Каждый третий из мировых единорогов (стартапы стоимостью более 1 миллиарда долларов) китайский, а облачные провайдеры страны удерживают мировой рекорд по эффективности вычислений. В то время как Китай испытывает дефицит торгового баланса услуг в целом, в последнее время он зарегистрировал положительное сальдо торгового баланса цифровых услуг до $15 млрд. в год.
michael suriano/unsplash We have all heard about a gap when it comes to participation of women in the tech industry. Facebook, Google, and Apple have 17%, 19% and 23% women in their technology staffs, respectively. Multiple surveys, such as the “The Elephant in the Valley,” have documented systematic discrimination against women. And there’s a continuous barrage of news stories regarding the challenges that women face across a raft of iconic Silicon Valley firms. No more than a quarter of U.S. computing and mathematical jobs are held by women, consistent with the data that around 26% of the STEM workforce in developed countries is female. In developing countries, those differences are even greater. But the gender gap problem doesn’t stop there. There’s also a shortage of women using some of the industry’s products. The International Telecommunications Union reports that the proportion of women using the internet is 12% lower than the proportion of men; this gender gap widens to 32.9% in the least developed countries. And even when a woman gets on a phone or is online, she might face additional hostility. A World Wide Web Foundation report says “women around the world report being bombarded by a culture of misogyny online, including aggressive, often sexualized hate speech, direct threats of violence, harassment, and revenge porn involving use of personal/private information for defamation.” What this speaks to is an opportunity for the tech industry — both to address internal diversity issues and to address how companies think about the products they create around the world. Consider the benefits of narrowing the gender gap. When women are locked out of digital products, businesses lose customers and product development gets stymied. For example, the Connected Women report from the GSMA shows that women are less likely to be financially independent when the digital gender gap is wide. Closing this gap would disproportionately help women and the global economy; a recent Accenture study suggests that women derive greater value from “digital fluency” in the workplace than men do. And a study of Kenya’s popular M-PESA mobile money service suggests that digital financial services can increase the participation of women in the workforce and create opportunities for women in the formal market economy. Plus, consider the new generation of unlikely entrepreneurs – on Facebook-owned Instagram – in socially conservative Saudi Arabia: a growing number of women are turning to the app to start businesses that can bypass both bureaucracies and social restrictions. Thousands of women have established Instagram businesses selling handicrafts, food, clothing and accessories. Moreover, women tend to have a disproportionate influence on decisions around family, community, and children. They tend to invest more of their earnings in their families than men do – almost 10 times more. So closing the digital gender gap would likely have far-reaching benefits. Of course, this story is bigger then any one business goal. To quote the World Economic Forum’s founder, Dr. Klaus Schwab, “Achieving gender equality is obviously necessary for economic reasons. Only those economies (that) have full access to all their talent will remain competitive and will prosper. But even more important, gender equality is a matter of justice. As a humanity, we also have the obligation to ensure a balanced set of values.” Understanding the opportunity in digital inclusion Apart from the many benefits of the uptake of digital technology, can the industry’s advances actually help address this gender disparity? Can it help close the gender gap and set the many multiplier effects in motion? As part of our global study of the patterns of digital evolution, a collaboration between The Fletcher School and Mastercard, we set out to ask a related question: what is the impact of an increase in digital uptake across countries on gender inclusion? We created two measures. One is a measure of gender inclusion, an index that combines several indicators of female participation, including female literacy rates, the proportion of women with accounts at a financial institution, female labor force participation rates, and the proportion of seats held by women in national parliament. The second measure is one of digital uptake, an index comprising adoption of the internet, mobile or landline connections, digital consumption, and use of digital technology for commercial purposes. Our analyses of the relationship between these measures point to an interesting result. We find that every percentage in growth of digital uptake over the period 2008-2011 leads to a positive growth rate of gender digital inclusion over the period 2011-15 by about 2.3%. When the 60 countries analyzed are limited to only those in the developing world, every percentage in growth of digital uptake over the period 2008-2011 leads to a positive growth rate of gender digital inclusion over the period 2011-15 by about 2%. We see this as further evidence that digital uptake contributes to wider benefits across the economy and in narrowing the gender gap. According to the McKinsey Global Institute, when we remove the obstacles that constrain women from reaching parity with men, $28 trillion of new value is added to global GDP in 10 years. Surely, this should make us feel more encouraged about the positive impact of digital technology in helping reduce a key form of social, political and economic imbalance. If the makers of digital technologies can better focus on creating products and virtual environments where women feel more included, more women will use the industry’s products, which, in turn, create these multiplier effects across society. It will also help drive the need to hire more women to participate in building and selling those products. It is useful to remember that all six programmers of Eniac, the world’s first digital computer, were women; it is time the industry caught up with its own history. We will now need to watch and see if the tech industry can find better ways to both close the gender gap in its own ranks as well as the gender gap in its customers.
**Should-Read: Laura Tyson and Susan Lund**: [Rage Against the Machine?](https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/automation-displaced-workers-transition-by-laura-tyson-and-susan-lund-2017-12): "Almost every aspect of our economies will be transformed by automation in the coming years... >...But history and economic theory suggest that fears about technological unemployment, a term coined by John Maynard Keynes nearly a century ago, are misplaced.... Marvelous new technologies promise higher productivity, greater efficiency, and more safety, flexibility, and convenience. But they are also stoking fears about their effects on jobs, skills, and wages. Feeding these fears is a recent study by the University of Oxford’s Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, and another by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), which find that large shares of employment in both developing and developed countries could technically be automated.... >Under a moderate scenario for the speed and breadth of automation, about 15% of the global workforce, or 400 million workers, could be displaced between now and 2030.... The good news is... projected increases in demand... rising incomes, the growing health-care needs of aging populations, and investment in infrastructure, energy efficiency, and renewables.... But the new jobs will differ mightily from the jobs displaced by automation, imposing painful transition costs.... Jobs in major occupational categories like production and office support, and...
This prominent tech company is the best place to work, according to research from Glassdoor.
Bitcoin Collapse, Equity 'Flash Crash', & The Fed Loses Control: Saxo's 'Outrageous Predictions' For 2018
Via Saxo Bank: We’ve delved deep again this year in penning our annual list of 10 Outrageous Predictions. As usual, we roam the world and ride roughshod over consensus in sniffing out these supposedly highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential – events that could have tremendous implications if they come to pass. Enjoy! 2017 was supposed to be the year of volatility. We entered the year with existential concerns in Europe ahead of key national elections, US policy concerns due to bull-in-the-china-shop President-elect Donald Trump, and Chinese policy concerns as markets eyed October’s 19th Party Congress. All in all, it seemed as if this would be the year we would see more a more rambunctious monetary policy impulse and more dramatic gyrations in global markets. Instead, the EU elections went off smoothly on balance while the European Central Bank’s supply of quantitative easing morphine kept Continental equities on a pleasant high despite a sharply stronger euro. In the US, Trump floundered from one scandal and gaffe to the next, entirely failing to pull any policy levers that impacted markets even as he took personal responsibility for a stellar year in equity markets with record low volatility. In Asia, China’s desire to keep everything orderly until at least the other side of the Party Congress kept fears of a renminbi devaluation on ice and the economy in reasonable shape even as the country’s dangerous credit bubble inflated further. In short, with few exceptions, global risk assets enjoyed a very good year with very low volatility – the kind of year very few predicted and thus an outrageous one indeed, especially for bears and gold bugs. Who would have thought that, 12 months after the 2016 Election Day earthquake in the US, a classic fear indicator like gold would be near-precisely unchanged! Our suspicion is that the complacency and low volatility in 2017 will not repeat and may indeed have stored energy for a spectacular and outrageous 2018. Thus, a number of our predictions point squarely at the risk that this accumulation of excess complacency may have blown a pent-up bubble of volatility. But do keep in mind, as always, that these are not forecasts. Rather, they are a list of supposed “1% likelihood” events that should really be considered as 10% likely… or higher. Besides our prediction of an ugly end to the complacency bubble, we place our European focus on the increasingly stark political faultline between “Austro-Hungarian Europe” and its feasible allies, and the traditional EU core. In China, we look at the potential for enormous gains in consumption-linked equities as China transitions from an investment to a consumption-focused growth model. We wax outrageously bullish on sub-Saharan Africa and equally bearish on central banks, who risk having their independence taken away next year. It’s safe to say that if any of our predictions see the light of day in 2018, the world will feel like a new place this time next year. 1. Fed loses independence as US Treasury takes charge - Treasury enacts 2.5% yield cap after massive spike The independence of the US Federal Reserve has historically fluctuated according to the needs and policies of the federal government. In 2018, it will lose significant ground as Washington moves to cap government yields in the face of a bond market meltdown. The independence of the US Federal Reserve Bank was restored by the 1951 Accord after it lost much of its independence in the post-World War II period due to the government’s need to cap yields. This yield-capping came as wartime price controls were lifted and in light of the government having taken on enormous wartime debts. Indeed, the 104-year history of the Fed shows a number of smaller and larger swings in its power and ability to act independently. In 2018, the pendulum swings away from the Fed’s favour as the Treasury takes on emergency powers and forces the central bank to cap US government yields to prevent a bond market meltdown. Both the Republican and Democratic parties will increasingly vie for their share of the populist vote heading into 2018’s mid-term elections, and budget discipline is entirely absent with GOP tax cuts bringing a massive revenue shortfall that will only be made worse as the US heads into recession. The double whammy of a weak economy and higher interest rates/inflation will leave the Fed with no answers on monetary policy. The hapless Fed will be scapegoated by politicians for the economy’s weak performance, a bond market in vicious turmoil, and the aggravation of already worsening inequality brought on by years of post-global financial crisis quantitative easing. In order to maintain federal spending and nominal growth, as well as to stabilise the bond market and save face into the 2018 mid-terms, the US Treasury seizes the reins as it did after World War II, enacting the same 2.5% yield cap on long bonds after a massive spike in yields. 2. Bank of Japan loses control of its monetary policy - USDJPY rises to 150 and then collapses to 100 The Bank of Japan’s policy of yield curve control depends on soft global interest rates and low yields, and in 2018 this centre will simply not hold. As inflation rises, yields too will spike, and the result will be a fantastical plunge in the yen. Ultimately, the central bank will need to resort to QE-style measures, but not before USDJPY hits 150. The Bank of Japan’s yield curve control policy was always a luxury predicated on interest rates remaining orderly elsewhere in the world. After all, a continued rise in global yields would eventually mean that maintaining the 10-year JGB “peg” would transfer all of the pressure onto the yen. The Bank of Japan was already forced to defend the peg twice in 2017. In market history, pegs are like rules – they are made to be broken. The world enters 2018 completely complacent on inflation risks, and these rise as spare capacity in key skilled wage industries disappears and China preserves yuan strength while maintaining high nominal growth rates in an effort to devalue its credit excess via inflation. With inflation rising and global bond yields (led by US Treasuries) surging, the BoJ nevertheless digs in its heels on the 10-year yield peg and even tries to make a show of moving the peg slightly to accommodate market pressures. The JPY is crushed all the way to 150 versus USD in an aggravated spike to absorb the pressure of higher yields. Then, amidst criticism from global peers on the BoJ’s policy and the competitive advantages that the weak yen provides Japan – as well as ugly popular resentment due to an imports-driven spike in the cost of living – the BoJ is forced to capitulate and revert to simple, “mopping up”-style quantitative easing operations to prevent JGB yields from surging out of control. USDJPY hits 150 before the BoJ capitulates, after which it rapidly devalues to 100. 3. China issues CNY-denominated oil futures contract - Petro-renminbi surges, USDCNY below 6.0 China is by far the world’s largest oil importer, and many producer nations are already more than happy to transact in yuan terms. With the US’ global power and reach waning, and given the success of CNY-based commodity futures in general, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange’s decision to launch a yuan-based crude oil future is a runaway success. 2018 marks the year in which the Shanghai International Energy Exchange finally launches an oil contract denominated in Chinese yuan, a move with tremendous geopolitical and financial consequences. The global futures market for oil trading has for years been governed by the dollar-denominated benchmarks of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude. Combined, these represent a daily turnover of more than two billion barrels – some 20 times the total daily world oil demand. In recent years, the US WTI crude oil contract has been increasingly sidelined by the seaborne Brent crude oil contract as the global benchmark against which many other oil qualities are priced. China, meanwhile, has already become far and away the world’s largest crude oil importer and many key exporters – led by Iran and Russia – are more than happy to transact in yuan terms. This is both because China has effectively allayed fears that it will devalue its currency and to thumb their noses at the US due to fraught relations with the declining superpower. Reserve managers in these countries diversify currency holdings into yuan at the cost of USD in particular, but also the euro as China maintains a stable, high value for its currency. As with other CNY-based commodity futures launched over the past few years (especially in metals), the oil contract becomes a raging success. The introduction of the petro-yuan sees CNY appreciate more than 10% versus the dollar, taking the USDCNY rate below 6.0 for the first time ever. 4. Volatility spikes on sudden S&P 500 ‘flash crash’ - S&P 500 drops 25% in spectacular plunge World markets are increasingly full of signs and wonders, and the collapse of volatility seen across asset classes in 2017 was no exception. The historic lows in the VIX and MOVE indices are matched by record highs in stocks and real estate, and the result is a powder keg that is set to blow sky-high as the S&P 500 loses 25% of its value in a rapid, 1987-esque flash crash. Investors have experienced many extraordinary events over the past 10 years and 2017 was no exception. In fact, it was truly extraordinary year as volatility across asset classes collapsed and the MOVE index of bond market volatility and VIX index of equity volatility posted all-time-lows during the year. At the same time, credit and government bonds are historically very expensive. Equities and real estate are also flirting with record levels... good times, right? Not really, because the drivers of bubbly asset prices – quantitative easing, interest rate targeting, and low/negative rates – are aggravating imbalances and weakening the financial system. It’s no secret that 2018 will see the Federal Reserve reduce its balance sheet at an accelerating pace while the European Central bank halves its QE purchases from January 1. Another layer of danger can be found in the fact that much of the upside in assets has been driven by blind and massive inflows into passive investment vehicles, smart beta funds, “risk parity” asset allocation funds, and highly risky short volatility strategies. It’s estimated that around $800 billion sits in risk parity strategies across funds and discretionary accounts. With low returns offered in bonds and given the flattening yield curve, risk parity funds will have to increase leverage to meet volatility targets, causing underlying risk to go up. In short, it’s a powder keg – any policy or shock could trigger a flash crash in multiple markets with risk parity funds acting as an amplifier as investors pile into cash. For these reasons, the S&P 500 suffers a flash crash of 25% (peak-to-trough) in a spectacular, one-off move reminiscent of 1987. A whole swathe of short volatility funds are completely wiped out and a formerly unknown long volatility trader realises a 1000% gain and instantly becomes a legend. 5. US voters push left in 2018 mid-terms, bonds spike - US 30-year Treasury yields rip beyond 5% Changing demographics in the US which already have the under-35 millennials in place as a larger cohort than the post-war baby boomers will have a dramatic impact on politics in 2018.One outcome will be a spiralling public deficit. Much has been made of the Trump brand of populism. But let’s not forget the Bernie Sanders revolution that was nearly as popular and was only short-circuited by the Clinton political machine in the 2016 primaries. In 2018, populism on both sides won’t be denied and the US mid-term elections see a hard turn left as a strong majority go all-in for European-inspired democratic socialism, the largest political earthquake in a generation. As Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon stated in a 60 Minutes interview on the political lay of the land: “the only question before us is whether it’s going to be a left-wing populism or a right-wing populism… and that is the question that will be answered in 2020.” We agree, except that it is already crunch time in 2018 and the Democrats easily take back both houses of Congress. The future of any country is in its younger generation, and the under-35 millennials are now American’s largest generation, larger even than the vaunted baby boomers. They also wear a very different set of political stripes as they showed in a groundswell of support for social democrat Bernie Sanders in 2016. The general revulsion of younger voters for Trump’s persona, the widening inequality gap aggravated even further by the Republicans’ cynical tax reform, and a new breed of Democratic candidates who are unafraid to tap into Sanders-style populism from the left see millennials turning out in droves at the polls in November. The Democrats pull the debate away from tax reform to spending stimulus for the masses. True populism means breaking out the chequebook for the 90%, and that means fiscal stimulus, deficits be damned. US 30-year Treasury yields rip beyond 5% 6. ‘Austro-Hungarians’ launch hostile EU takeover - EURUSD to 1.00 after hitting new highs The divide between old core EU members and the more sceptical and newer members of the bloc will widen to an impassable chasm in 2018 and will shift the centre of gravity from the Franco-German axis to Visegrad-and-friends .The consequences for the euro will be severe. Diplomatic tensions between Western and Eastern Europe spiked in 2017 on the issues of expatriate workers, migrant quotas, and democratic values. In 2018, the tensions go from bad to worse. The ambitious French leader, Emmanuel Macron, who is already planning to run for president of Europe, convinces Germany and its weakened chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as the three Benelux countries, to integrate further and create a joint treasury and a common defence budget. Opposed to further integration, CEE leaders fear that such a move would significantly reduce their political influence within the European Union. Echoing the old outlines of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the new Austrian chancellor – who has successfully formed an ÖVP–FPÖ coalition government – decides to join the Visegrad Group, which gathers the four least Europhile members of the EU (besides the exiting UK). He moves closer to Hungary’s populist premier Viktor Orban on economic and migration issues which results in a Franco-German diplomatic boycott against Austria. Tensions reach a climax when the European Commission, urged on by France, Belgium and Germany, launches an Article 7 procedure against Poland for its disrespect for the rule of law. Looking for further weight to counter the Franco-German led “core EU”, Austria and the Visegrad 4 lobby to take the union in a pro-stimulus and anti-immigration direction. They successfully manage to gather a group of 13 EU countries, including Italy (once again led by Silvio Berlusconi) and Slovenia, to form a blocking minority at the European Council. For the first time since 1951, Europe’s political centre of gravity shifts from the Franco-German couple to CEE. The EU’s institutional blockage does not take long to worry financial markets. After spiking to new highs versus the G10 and many EM currencies by late in 2018, the euro rapidly weakens towards parity with USD. 7. Investors flee Bitcoin as governments strike back - Bitcoin @ $1,000 The rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has been one of the most spectacular phenomena of financial markets in recent years. Bitcoin will continue to rise – and rise high – during most of 2018 but Russia and China will together engineer a crash. Bitcoin peaks in 2018 with Bitcoin above $60,000 and a market capitalisation of over $1 trillion as the advent of the Bitcoin futures contract in December 2017 leads to a groundswell of involvement by investors and funds that are more comfortable trading futures than tying up funds on cryptocurrency exchanges. Before long, however, the Bitcoin phenomenon finds the rug torn out from under it as Russia and China move deftly to sideline and even prohibit non-sanctioned cryptocurrencies domestically. Russia officially enters the cryptocurrency mining space to influence protocol developments and shift the focus away from Bitcoin in an effort to keep more Russian capital onshore. China makes a similar move, cracking down on cryptocurrencies by banning the mining of the most popular ones within China, citing energy waste and environmental concerns, but likewise fearing the risk of Bitcoin as a vehicle for capital flight. Instead, China launches an officially backed cryptocurrency that entails less energy-intensive mining. The smoother functioning of the state-run protocols for actual payments and price stability, as well as the the heavy hand of state intervention, drives a decreasing interest in all cryptocurrencies and completely sidelines the Bitcoin and crypto phenomenon from a price speculation angle even as the technological promise of the blockchain gallops on. After its spectacular peak in 2018, Bitcoin crashes and limps into 2019 close to its fundamental “production cost” of $1,000 8. South Africa resurgent after ‘African Spring’ - ZAR gains 30% versus EM currencies The Arab Spring, which was once a harbinger of hope for many millions of people across North Africa, has now faded to dust. But Africa always has the potential to surprise us and 2018 will see South Africa lead an unexpected renaissance that will see it and its neighbours blossom politically and economically. The democratic uprisings of the Arab Spring of 2010-2011 were supposed to bring peace and prosperity to North Africa and the Middle East but some six years after the old leaders were thrown out, Egypt is mired in turmoil and inflation and Tunisia faces mass unemployment. In 2018, after a surprising turn of events, a wave of democratic transition spreads across sub-Saharan Africa. The forced resignation of Zimbabwe’s long-term president Robert Mugabe at the end of 2017 triggers a wave of political change in other African countries upset with their leaders’ out-of-touch and ineffective leadership. South Africa’s Jacob Zuma is forced out of power and Congo’s Joseph Kabila faces unprecedented demonstrations pushing him to flee the country. New leaders take power and announce that free and fair elections monitored by international organisations will take place in the course of the year. In the meantime, the international business community, faced with a dearth of growth prospects in advanced and emerging economies, pours money into investments in the rapidly liberalising region. Good governance and social progress are the watchwords as Africa begins to realise its tremendous potential. The first positive economic consequences do not take long to fully materialise for these three countries: Zimbabwe rapidly emerges from hyperinflation and once again becomes Africa’s agricultural breadbasket. FDI inward flows in the Democratic Republic of the Congo reach a record high of $10 billion in 2018, driven particularly by the country’s cobalt reserves. South Africa, however, is the main winner as the ZAR becomes the EM darling and returns 30% against the G3 currencies. It brings the world’s strongest rates of growth in South Africa and the satellite frontier economies of the region. 9. Tencent topples Apple as market cap king - Tencent shares gain 100% China is opening up its capital markets, and the country’s enormous size and surging living standards are attracting investors from across the globe. Given this, it’s no surprise that tech-sector leader Tencent is bumping up against some of the world’s largest companies by market capitalisation. In 2018, though, all of this jostling for position will become a thing of the past as Tencent leaves its US rivals in the dust. China, still the world’s most populous country and one with a rapidly rising standard of living, is opening up its capital markets and its reform programmes are driving a fresh rise in investor sentiment after missteps in 2015. The focus is particularly intense when it comes to Chinese technology stocks with market leader Tencent’s shares rocketing 120% higher in 2017. The exorbitant rally was fuelled by explosive topline revenue growth of over 60% (year-on-year) in Q3 and a rise of some 50% in operating income. In fact, Tencent is the only $100 billion-plus market capitalisation giant in the world that is generating this kind of growth. It’s not surprising, however, given that the firm is a world leader in the red-hot eSports market (with 60 million viewers of its League of Legends games) and continues to surprise the market in successfully monetising Facebook-equivalent WeChat’s billion-plus active user base. In late 2017, Tencent moved into the global top five in market cap terms, nearing $500 billion and even eclipsing Facebook at one point. In 2018, though, Tencent leaves the other giants in the dust – even if a wildly successful iPhone X takes Apple’s market cap to $1 trillion. On top of its own successful business model, Tencent’s success is driven by China’s transition to a more consumption-led economy. Tencent shares advance another 100% despite the company’s already enormous size and in 2018 the firm steals the world market cap crown from Apple at well above $1 trillion. 10. Women take the reins of corporate power - Female CEOs at more than 60 Fortune 500 companies Women have long been underrepresented in the corridors of power but this will change and change fast in 2018 as more and more females get to lead the world’s biggest companies. The revolution will be sparked not by a desire to right an historical wrong but rather, by an incontestable economic imperative. In 2018, the trend towards increasing female representation in the boardroom level goes super-exponential, with twice as many women rising to the level of CEO at Fortune 500 companies. Over the last generation, women have started achieving higher education levels than men, with US universities now graduating some 50% more women than men at the bachelor’s degree level. Women also now comprise nearly half of all business graduates. Additionally, women in developed countries vote 7-10% more than men, meaning that they are already the deciding factor at the polls. And yet in 2017, only 6.4% of the CEOs in the Fortune 500 list are women – though on average they earn more than their male peers. That must be because they are better! The Power of Parity, a 2015 report by McKinsey & Company, concluded that best-in-class practices with regard to gender equality would add another $12 trillion, or 10%, to global GDP through 2025. And if we had true equality, it would net a total an economic windfall of $28 trillion, or about a full year of US’ and China’s combined GDP. Change is coming – not because it is “fair”, but for the practical reason that women realising their desired potential is the last way left to grow the pie without growing the population in our low-productivity and aging developed economies. Perhaps the trigger for all of this was the rediscovery in 2017 of the gross harassment women deal with every day when knuckle-dragging alpha males run the show. In 2018, the chauvinist old boys’ clubs are shaken to their core by shareholders and enlightened self-reflective purges and a woman occupies the top spot at more than 60 Fortune 500 companies by the end of the year. With that, here is the full report from Saxo Group:
That might not be a bad thing.
But the upturn comes as the markets face increased political assault.
(Bloomberg) -- Индустрия управления активами вступает в период "новых аномалий", прогнозирует консалтинговая фирма McKinsey & Co.В ближайшие два десятилетия компании отрасли столкнутся с рядом вызовов, включая "более умеренные" доходы от долгосрочных инвестиций, старение клиентов, которые на пенсии переходят от сбережений к тратам, и давление на...
Каким будет мир в 2025 году? Картина, которая откроется перед нашими глазами, будет грандиозна – хотя ничего экстраординарного консалтинговые агентства, аналитические центры и международные организации не предвидят. Ни полетов на Марс, ни прилета марсиан. Просто всего будет больше – и, прежде всего, людей. Население земли к 2025 году, по прогнозам ООН, превысит 8 млрд человек. Жить мы будем дольше, поэтому вырастет количество пожилых: к 2025 году 1,2 миллиарда людей перешагнут шестидесятилетний рубеж. Совокупные активы богачей, обладающих состоянием, превышающим $1 млн, к 2025 году, согласно прогнозу Capgemini, скакнут с $63,5 трлн в прошлом году к $100 трлн.Темпы урбанизации замедлятся. В McKinsey&Company считают, что рождаемость в городах неуклонно снижается, а приток мигрантов иссякает. Таким образом, по прогнозу компании, к 2025 число жителей мегаполисов в развитых странах снизится еще на 17%. В США темпы урбанизации сократятся до 1 % в год, в Европе – до 0,5% (с нынешних 0,7%). С другой стороны, по мнению Nielsen, вырастет значение глобального среднего класса – сейчас он составляет около 20% мирового населения, а к 2025 г. будет уже 37-40%. Но при этом на него станет приходиться 53% общих потребительских расходов. К середине текущего века половина населения планеты будет сконцентрирована всего в 9 странах мира: США, Эфиопия, Танзания, Конго, Индия, Нигерия, Индонезия, Пакистан и – конечно – Китай.( Читать дальше... )Вы также можете подписаться на мои страницы:- в фейсбуке: https://www.facebook.com/podosokorskiy- в твиттере: https://twitter.com/podosokorsky- в контакте: http://vk.com/podosokorskiy- в инстаграм: https://www.instagram.com/podosokorsky/- в телеграм: http://telegram.me/podosokorsky- в одноклассниках: https://ok.ru/podosokorsky
Бестселлер Мартина Форда "Восхождение роботов: технологии и угроза будущего без работы" назван лучшей книгой для бизнеса 2015 г. по версии издания Financial Times и консалтинговой компании McKinsey & Company.
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