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29 апреля, 15:05

Book Bits | 29 April 2017

● Adaptive Markets: Financial Evolution at the Speed of Thought By Andrew W. Lo Summary via publisher (Princeton University Press) Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can’t agree on whether investors and markets are rational and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists […]

25 апреля, 19:24

Капитан у руля: как выйти из оперативного управления и не потерять бизнес

90% проданных бизнесов в России умирают, так как никто, кроме основателей не знает, как нужно управлять компанией.

25 апреля, 13:00

Кадры: Росбанк, Дойче Банк, «Росгосстрах», РФПИ

В Дойче Банке может смениться глава, Росбанк усилил команду по работе с малым бизнесом, РФПИ назначил первого заместителя гендиректора, «Росгосстрах» — нового куратора корпоративного страхования.

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24 апреля, 19:56

McKinsey identifies oil supply, demand scenarios to 2030

McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), an energy data and analytics specialist in London, has released its latest Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook to 2030, which identifies five potential supply and demand scenarios.

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24 апреля, 10:22

Страны недоиспользуют потенциал эффективности госрасходов

24 апреля. FINMARKET.RU - Центр исследования для госуправления (MCG) компании McKinsey опубликовал рабочую версию доклада "Продуктивность правительственных структур: разблокировать возможности на $3,5 трлн". В работе McKinsey предполагает создать для госуправления в крупных странах мира независимую систему показателей эффективности госрасходов, пишет "Коммерсант". Если эта попытка будет удачной, система негосударственной оценки сравнительной результативности работы госструктур может быть сопоставлена с уже существующими немногочисленными аналогичными расчетами Всемирного банка.

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24 апреля, 02:19

Государствам необязательно жить в долг // McKinsey обнаружила у мирового правительства потенциал экономии на $4 трлн в год

Правительства 42 стран мира, включая Россию, недоиспользуют потенциал эффективности госрасходов примерно на $3,5 трлн в год, еще от $0,5 трлн до $1,1 трлн госрасходов имеют нулевой или отрицательный эффект, полагают аналитики McKinsey в работе, в которой предпринята попытка проанализировать проблему на глобальном уровне. Цифры потенциальной экономии, полагают авторы, сопоставимы с консолидированным дефицитом бюджета стран, составляющих четыре пятых мирового ВВП.

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24 апреля, 00:21

Государствам необязательно жить в долг // McKinsey обнаружила у мирового правительства потенциал экономии на $4 трлн в год

Правительства 42 стран мира, включая Россию, недоиспользуют потенциал эффективности госрасходов примерно на $3,5 трлн в год, еще от $0,5 трлн до $1,1 трлн госрасходов имеют нулевой или отрицательный эффект, полагают аналитики McKinsey в работе, в которой предпринята попытка проанализировать проблему на глобальном уровне. Цифры потенциальной экономии, полагают авторы, сопоставимы с консолидированным дефицитом бюджета стран, составляющих четыре пятых мирового ВВП.

21 апреля, 01:00

Автоматизацию не остановить, потому что это часть капитализма

Эксперты продолжают спорить о будущем сферы труда. Мартин Форд, автор книги «Восстание роботов», уверен — процесс автоматизации уже не остановить. Роботизация производства выгодна почти всем, кроме рабочих без ученых степеней, и именно их сильнее всего затронет массовая роботизация.Пока весь мир обсуждал автоматизацию фабричного труда, настоящий прорыв пришел с неожиданной стороны — Amazon открыла (видео) продовольственный оффлайн-магазин без касс и продавцов. Сканирующие устройства автоматически пробивают товар на выходе и снимают деньги со счета. Причем покупку даже не нужно прикладывать к датчику. Новость мгновенно вызвала тревожные прогнозы по поводу будущего сотрудников розничной торговли, которые, кстати, реже всего сталкиваются с нехваткой рабочих мест в США.Книжный магазин без касс и продавцовПисатель Мартин Форд в интервью CNBC отметил, что открытие подобных магазинов неизбежно, а автоматизация выгодна всем — как потребителям, так и торговым предприятиям. «Случай с Amazon — это не просто попытки сократить затраты на оплату труда, это настоящий подрыв», — считает Форд.О замене продавцов автоматизированными системами предупреждал отчет McKinsey & Co. Аналитики подчеркивали — для автоматизации магазинов и ресторанов достаточно существующих технологий, ничего изобретать не нужно. Открытие Amazon Go доказало этот тезис. Остановить процесс автоматизации уже не получится, убежден Мартин Форд: «Это часть капитализма — постоянное стремление к повышению производительности».Автоматизация приведет к разрушению некоторых сегментов рынка труда и будет препятствовать созданию новых рабочих мест, особенно для людей «без ученой степени от МТИ». Уже сейчас, по словам Форда, сокращается число рабочих мест в производстве, но занятость среди низкоквалифицированных трудящихся только растет. Однако скоро и этим профессиям придет конец. По данным консалтинговой компании IDC, к 2019 году правительству придется ввести нормы регулирования, направленные на защиту рынка труда от роботизации.Форд также отметил, что хотя технологии всегда создавали почти столько же рабочих мест, сколько уничтожали, сейчас ситуация изменилась: «Технологии становятся умными, у них появляются когнитивные способности, и это может иметь более серьезные последствия».По прогнозам компании Forrester, рост числа умных агентов и ИИ-систем к 2021 году приведет к потере 6% рабочих мест в США. В развивающихся странах этот процесс будет не менее выраженным, а роботы займут две трети рабочих мест, утверждает доклад ООН. Ряд экспертов считает, что страхи по поводу тотальной автоматизации преувеличены. Более того, роботы смогут спасти мировую экономику, которую в ближайшие годы ждет новый вызов — рост продолжительности жизни и сокращение процента трудоспособного населения. [link]

20 апреля, 21:01

Цены на нефть войдут в диапазон $60-70 и застрянут там ...

McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), эксперт по энергетике, являющийся аналитическим подразделением консалтинговой компании McKinsey, опубликовал новый прогноз по перспективам мирового спроса и предложения на рынке нефти. Согласно представленным в нем данным, в ближайшие три года цены на черное золото не выйдут за пределы диапазона 60–70 долларов за баррель. В отчете были рассмотрены 5 потенциаль… читать далее…

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20 апреля, 20:16

Our Delusions About Talent

Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic, professor of business psychology at University College London, dispels some of the myths that have persisted in the 20 years since McKinsey coined the phrase “war for talent.” He argues the science of talent acquisition and retention is still in its early stages. Chamorro-Premuzic is the CEO of Hogan Assessments and the author of the book The Talent Delusion: Why Data, Not Intuition, is the Key to Unlocking Human Potential. Download this podcast

20 апреля, 18:00

Forget IBM, Buy These Thematic Tech ETFs Instead

If you are off by IBM's incessant revenue declines, play its strategic imperative areas by these thematic ETFs.

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19 апреля, 19:19

McKinsey identifies oil supply, demand scenarios to 2030

McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI), an energy data and analytics specialist in London, has released its latest Global Oil Supply and Demand Outlook to 2030, which identifies five potential supply and demand scenarios.

18 апреля, 15:00

The First Wave of Corporate AI Is Doomed to Fail

Artificial intelligence is a hot topic right now. Driven by a fear of losing out, companies in many industries have announced AI-focused initiatives. Unfortunately, most of these efforts will fail. They will fail not because AI is all hype, but because companies are approaching AI-driven innovation incorrectly. And this isn’t the first time companies have made this kind of mistake. Back in the late 1990s, the internet was the big trend. Most companies started online divisions. But there were very few early wins. Once the dot-com bust happened, these companies shut down or significantly downscaled their online efforts. A few years later they were caught napping when online upstarts disrupted industries such as music, travel, news, and video, while transforming scores of others. In the mid-2000s, the buzz was about cloud computing. Once again, several companies decided to test the waters. There were several early issues, ranging from regulatory compliance to security. Many organizations backed off from moving their data and applications to the cloud. The ones that persisted are incredibly well-positioned today, having transformed their business processes and enabled a level of agility that competitors cannot easily mimic. The vast majority are still playing catch-up. Insight Center The Age of AI Sponsored by Accenture How it will impact business, industry, and society. We believe that a similar story of early failures leading to irrational retreats will occur with AI. Already, evidence suggests that early AI pilots are unlikely to produce the dramatic results that technology enthusiasts predict. For example, early efforts of companies developing chatbots for Facebook’s Messenger platform saw 70% failure rates in handling user requests. Yet a reversal on these initiatives among large companies would be a mistake. The potential of AI to transform industries truly is enormous. Recent research from McKinsey Global Institute found that 45% of work activities could potentially be automated by today’s technologies, and 80% of that is enabled by machine learning. The report also highlighted that companies across many sectors, such as manufacturing and health care, have captured less than 30% of the potential from their data and analytics investments. Early failures are often used to slow or completely end these investments. AI is a paradigm shift for organizations that have yet to fully embrace and see results from even basic analytics. So creating organizational learning in the new platform is far more important than seeing a big impact in the short run. But how does a manager justify continuing to invest in AI if the first few initiatives don’t produce results? Related Video A.I. Could Liberate 50% of Managers' Time Here's what they should focus on. Save Share See More Videos > See More Videos > We suggest taking a portfolio approach to AI projects: a mix of projects that might generate quick wins and long-term projects focused on transforming end-to-end workflow. For quick wins, one might focus on changing internal employee touchpoints, using recent advances in speech, vision, and language understanding. Examples of these projects might be a voice interface to help pharmacists look up substitute drugs, or a tool to schedule internal meetings. These are areas in which recently available, off-the-shelf AI tools, such as Google’s Cloud Speech API and Nuance’s speech recognition API, can be used, and they don’t require massive investment in training and hiring. (Disclosure: One of us is an executive at Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google.) They will not be transformational, but they will help build consensus on the potential of AI. Such projects also help organizations gain experience with large-scale data gathering, processing, and labeling, skills that companies must have before embarking on more-ambitious AI projects. For long-term projects, one might go beyond point optimization, to rethinking end-to-end processes, which is the area in which companies are likely to see the greatest impact. For example, an insurer could take a business process such as claims processing and automate it entirely, using speech and vision understanding. Allstate car insurance already allows users to take photos of auto damage and settle their claims on a mobile app. Technology that’s been trained on photos from past claims can accurately estimate the extent of the damage and automate the whole process. As companies such as Google have learned, building such high-value workflow automation requires not just off-the-shelf technology but also organizational skills in training machine learning algorithms. As Google pursued its goal of transitioning into an AI-first company, it followed a similar portfolio-based approach. The initial focus was on incorporating machine learning into a few subcomponents of a system (e.g., spam detection in Gmail), but now the company is using machine learning to replace entire sets of systems. Further, to increase organizational learning, the company is dispersing machine learning experts across product groups and training thousands of software engineers, across all Google products, in basic machine learning. This all leads to the question of how best to recruit the resources for these efforts. The good news is that emerging marketplaces for AI algorithms and datasets, such as Algorithmia and the Google-owned Kaggle, coupled with scalable, cloud-based infrastructure that is custom-built for artificial intelligence, are lowering barriers. Algorithms, data, and IT infrastructure for large-scale machine learning are becoming accessible to even small and medium-size businesses. Further, the cost of artificial intelligence talent is coming down as the supply of trained professionals increases. Just as the cost of building a mobile app went from $200,000–$300,000 in 2010 to less than $10,000 today with better development tools, standardization around few platforms (Android and iOS), and increased supply of mobile developers, similar price deflation in the cost of building AI-powered systems is coming. The implication is that there is no need for firms to frontload their hiring. Hiring slowly, yet consistently, over time and making use of marketplaces for machine learning software and infrastructure can help keep costs manageable. There is little doubt that an AI frenzy is starting to bubble up. We believe AI will indeed transform industries. But the companies that will succeed with AI are the ones that focus on creating organizational learning and changing organizational DNA. And the ones that embrace a portfolio approach rather than concentrating their efforts on that one big win will be best positioned to harness the transformative power of artificial learning.

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17 апреля, 10:39

По международному транспортному коридору "Приморье-2" прошел первый груз

Экономия от перевозки грузов для китайской стороны составит, по оценке компании McKinsey, более $1 млрд

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14 апреля, 16:30

This One Trade Changed 400 Years Of History In Just Four Hours

Authored by Teeka Tiwari via InternationalMan.com, A “secret” currency market has been born. This radical new money is going to change how we buy groceries, pay our bills, and conduct business. It could even completely eliminate paper money.   And yet, most people have no clue this new currency even exists. Meanwhile, the “smart money” is pulling out of traditional investments and piling into this new space… hoping to cash in on “a new virtual gold rush.”   The piece below is from our friend and colleague Teeka Tiwari—editor of The Palm Beach Letter.   Teeka is a true expert on this new currency. He has more connections and expertise on this topic than anyone else that I know of. I think you’ll enjoy it.   As you’ll see, this secret currency is about to turn a $2 trillion industry on its head… but that’s only the beginning. Eventually, this technology could be bigger than email, even the internet.   The good news is that you can get in on this currency revolution without putting a penny in the stock or bond market. On a cold and rainy October day in 1971, Ray Tomlinson sent the first-ever email. At the time, he didn’t think much of it. Nobody told him to do it… He just thought it was neat. Tomlinson was a programmer working on a secret government project called ARPANET… a network of computers that could “talk” to one another. It took two years before people realized just how powerful Tomlinson’s invention was. By then, email had gone from virtually none to 75% of all ARPANET traffic. Today, 2.5 billion people send 2.5 million emails per second on ARPANET’s successor—the internet. More than four decades after Tomlinson’s invention, email is still the single most used application on the internet. It was crucial to the growth of the web. In the early days of the internet, email was its primary draw for users. There was no YouTube, Google, or iTunes Store. Email birthed some of the earliest internet success stories… pioneering online service providers like Prodigy, CompuServe, and America Online that were all built on providing convenient email access. Email was once a disruptive technology. Its use is now so widespread that it’s putting the U.S. Postal Service out of business… It’s contributed to a 35% drop in first-class mail over the past decade. Early investors in email support technology got rich, turning minute investments into millions and millions of dollars today. It’s easy for us to dream what it would have been like to make that sort of fortune from an investment. Had we the right information back in the 1980s and 1990s, would we have invested? Would we have committed those dollars? Today, I’m putting your feet to the fire. Friends, we are on the brink of a budding new technology trend that is of the same scale—possibly bigger—as email and the internet. But this one will revolutionize the way we transact and do business… in the way email revolutionized communication. It’s happening right now with only a few people watching… A Revolutionary Way to Conduct Business On September 7, 2016, Barclays facilitated a $100,000 trade of cheese and butter between Irish food company Ornua and the Seychelles Trading Company. This small trade will be just as revolutionary as the first email sent. Here’s why… When two companies in different countries want to buy and sell from each other, they use a bank to guarantee the transaction… It’s called “trade finance.” According to McKinsey & Co., about $2 trillion is conducted in trade finance each year. For more than 400 years, trade finance hasn’t changed much. Banks act as intermediaries between trading partners. They use letters of credit to guarantee that everyone gets paid. Part of the due diligence process has always involved collecting a mass of paperwork. Both sides have to prove that they truly own what they say they own. They also have to prove that the goods they are selling are of the size, quality, and quantity that the bank is guaranteeing. As you can imagine, trade finance involves sending mounds of paperwork across oceans. Missing a signature? Sorry, please resend the package. It’s a time-consuming process desperately in need of change. Even in today’s digital age, it takes 10 days on average just to handle the paperwork. Sometimes, it can take up to a month. But all of that just changed on September 7. That $100,000 trade for butter and cheese was concluded in less than four hours. That’s a huge time-saver that will significantly reduce the price of international trade. Here’s how the deal was done… British banking giant Barclays used a new technology called the blockchain to transact the trade. The blockchain is a digital ledger that is tamper-proof. No single party has the power to change the records. Instead of sitting in a single central location, the ledger “lives” on thousands of computers that automatically update. The blockchain also has a built-in electronic record-keeping and transaction system. Both trade parties are able to track all documentation via a secure network. That means no third-party verification is required. Barclays’ global head of trade and working capital, Baihas Baghdadi, said that the blockchain will be a game changer: We’ve proved the reality of this technology and the client, Ornua, has asked us when they can do the next transaction in this way, which proves how user-friendly the entire process was. Think about that for a second… Trade finance hasn’t changed since the 1600s. More than $2 trillion a year is conducted via trade finance, and it’s still done with bits of paper flying across the world’s oceans. The first-ever trade deal done exclusively on the blockchain is as big as Ray Tomlinson’s first email. It’s a whole new way for business to get done. In a few short years, most international trade will be conducted through a blockchain… just like most of the world’s communication is done via email. But the blockchain won’t only change trade… Think about real estate. Real estate transactions have been done basically the same way since the Middle Ages. It’s a cumbersome, paperwork-heavy process that takes months. In a few years, the blockchain will allow you to qualify for a loan, conduct a title search, and close on a house in a single day… It’s not that far off. It’s not every day you get to see a life-changing trend happen right before your eyes. In a few short years, the word “blockchain” will be as commonplace as email. And it will spawn entire new industries. What to Do Next Barclays has proven the blockchain works to conduct business… and it won’t take long before this technology becomes widespread. Remember, email took off just two years after its first use. But here’s the thing… The technology is run using cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. I’ve written extensively about how you can use cryptocurrencies to protect your wealth and privacy… but they also act as “shares” in the burgeoning blockchain industry. As more people use the blockchain, the “shares” increase in price. Unlike hedge funds that require you to be an accredited investor (with a net worth over $1 million), you can buy “shares” in a blockchain’s technology by purchasing its cryptocurrency… Some of them trade for less than $15 per coin.

14 апреля, 14:00

How Companies Are Already Using AI

Every few months it seems another study warns that a big slice of the workforce is about to lose their jobs because of artificial intelligence. Four years ago, an Oxford University study predicted 47% of jobs could be automated by 2033. Even the near-term outlook has been quite negative: A 2016 report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said 9% of jobs in the 21 countries that make up its membership could be automated. And in January 2017, McKinsey’s research arm estimated AI-driven job losses at 5%. My own firm released a survey recently of 835 large companies (with an average revenue of $20 billion) that predicts a net job loss of between 4% and 7% in key business functions by the year 2020 due to AI. Yet our research also found that, in the shorter term, these fears may be overblown. The companies we surveyed – in 13 manufacturing and service industries in North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America – are using AI much more frequently in computer-to-computer activities and much less often to automate human activities. “Machine-to-machine” transactions are the low-hanging fruit of AI, not people-displacement. For example, our survey, which asked managers of 13 functions, from sales and marketing to procurement and finance, to indicate whether their departments were using AI in 63 core areas, found AI was used most frequently in detecting and fending off computer security intrusions in the IT department. This task was mentioned by 44% of our respondents. Yet even in this case, we doubt AI is automating the jobs of IT security people out of existence. In fact, we find it’s helping such often severely overloaded IT professionals deal with geometrically increasing hacking attempts. AI is making IT security professionals more valuable to their employers, not less. Insight Center The Age of AI Sponsored by Accenture How it will impact business, industry, and society. In fact, although we saw examples of companies using AI in computer-to-computer transactions such as in recommendation engines that suggest what a customer should buy next or when conducting online securities trading and media buying, we saw that IT was one of the largest adopters of AI. And it wasn’t just to detect a hacker’s moves in the data center. IT was using AI to resolve employees’ tech support problems, automate the work of putting new systems or enhancements into production, and make sure employees used technology from approved vendors. Between 34% and 44% of global companies surveyed are using AI in in their IT departments in these four ways, monitoring huge volumes of machine-to-machine activities.   In stark contrast, very few of the companies we surveyed were using AI to eliminate jobs altogether. For example, only 2% are using artificial intelligence to monitor internal legal compliance, and only 3% to detect procurement fraud (e.g., bribes and kickbacks). What about the automation of the production line? Whether assembling automobiles or insurance policies, only 7% of manufacturing and service companies are using AI to automate production activities. Similarly, only 8% are using AI to allocate budgets across the company. Just 6% are using AI in pricing. Where to Find the Low-Hanging Fruit So where should your company look to find such low-hanging fruit – applications of AI that won’t kill jobs yet could bestow big benefits? From our survey and best-practice research on companies that have already generated significant returns on their AI investments, we identified three patterns that separate the best from the rest when it comes to AI. All three are about using AI first to improve computer-to-computer (or machine-to-machine) activities before using it to eliminate jobs: Put AI to work on activities that have an immediate impact on revenue and cost. When Joseph Sirosh joined Amazon.com in 2004, he began seeing the value of AI to reduce fraud, bad debt, and the number of customers who didn’t get their goods and suppliers who didn’t get their money. By the time he left Amazon in 2013, his group had grown from 35 to more than 1,000 people who used machine learning to make Amazon more operationally efficient and effective. Over the same time period, the company saw a 10-fold increase in revenue. After joining Microsoft Corporation in 2013 as corporate vice president of the Data Group, Sirosh led the charge in using AI in the company’s database, big data, and machine learning offerings. AI wasn’t new at Microsoft. For example, the company had brought in a data scientist in 2008 to develop machine learning tools that would improve its search engine, Bing, in a market dominated by Google. Since then, AI has helped Bing more than double its share of the search engine market (to 20%); as of 2015, Bing generated more than a $1 billion in revenue every quarter. (That was the year Bing became a profitable business for Microsoft.) Microsoft’s use of AI now extends far beyond that, including to its Azure cloud computing service, which puts the company’s AI tools in the hands of Azure customers. (Disclosure: Microsoft is a TCS client.) Related Video A.I. Could Liberate 50% of Managers' Time Here's what they should focus on. Save Share See More Videos > See More Videos > Look for opportunities in which AI could help you produce more products with the same number of people you have today. The AI experience of the 170-year-old news service Associated Press is a great case in point. AP found in 2013 a literally insatiable demand for quarterly earnings stories, but their staff of 65 business reporters could write only 6% of the earnings stories possible, given America’s 5,300 publicly held companies. The earnings news of many small companies thus went unreported on AP’s wire services (other than the automatically published tabular data). So that year, AP began working with an AI firm to train software to automatically write short earnings news stories. By 2015, AP’s AI system was writing 3,700 quarterly earnings stories – 12 times the number written by its business reporters. This is a machine-to-machine application of AI. The AI software is one machine; the other is the digital data feed that AP gets from a financial information provider (Zacks Investment Research). No AP business journalist lost a job. In fact, AI has freed up the staff to write more in-depth stories on business trends. Start in the back office, not the front office. You might think companies will get the greatest returns on AI in business functions that touch customers every day (like marketing, sales, and service) or by embedding it in the products they sell to customers (e.g., the self-driving car, the self-cleaning barbeque grill, the self-replenishing refrigerator, etc.). Our research says otherwise. We asked survey participants to estimate their returns on AI in revenue and cost improvements, and then we compared the survey answers of the companies with the greatest improvements (call them “AI leaders”) to the answers of companies with the smallest improvements (“AI followers”). Some 51% of our AI leaders predicted that by 2020 AI will have its biggest internal impact on their back-office functions of IT and finance/accounting; only 34% of AI followers said the same thing. Conversely, 43% of AI followers said AI’s impact would be greatest in the front-office areas of marketing, sales, and services, yet only 26% of the AI leaders felt it would be there. We believe the leaders have the right idea: Focus your AI initiatives in the back-office, particularly where there are lots of computer-to-computer interactions in IT and finance/accounting. Computers today are far better at managing other computers and, in general, inanimate objects or digital information than they are at managing human interactions. When companies use AI in this sphere, they don’t have to eliminate jobs. Yet the job-destroying applications of AI are what command the headlines: driverless cars and trucks, robotic restaurant order-takers and food preparers, and more. Make no mistake: Automation and artificial intelligence will eliminate some jobs. Chatbots for customer service have proliferated; robots on the factory floor are real. But we believe companies would be wise to use AI first where their computers already interact. There’s plenty of low-hanging fruit there to keep them busy for years.

14 апреля, 10:01

Новые технологии и фастфуд. 6 самых интересных разработок в области food-tech

Роботы уже пекут блины, варят кофе и делают смузи. Почему полностью заменить людей машинами в сфере общепита не получится?

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12 апреля, 17:30

How ‘Made in Russia’ eco-food can win Chinese consumers over

Despite low export prices (and Xi Jinping’s craving for Russian ice cream), Russia's food producers face daunting challenges in entering a highly competitive market. Probably, the biggest problem at the moment is that Russian producers are simply unaware of the specifics of the Chinese market. If Russian exporters are thinking about making a long-term commitment to China, they should come up with a clear strategy and remain patient in their efforts to win over Chinese consumers. ‘Invading’ China’s food market Russian food products were practically absent in the Chinese market for over 20 years. During this period, China became the largest food market in the world. “We have just started to invade the Chinese market,” Alexander Tkachev, Russian Minister of Agriculture, said in a recent interview with state-run TV station Russia24. Russian chocolate is now being exported to Asia. Source: Elena Pochetova The “invasion” Tkachev referred to is a 1.5-million ton grain supply contract signed between China and Russia at the end of March 2017. China accounts for 11 percent of Russian exports (this number has increased from 6 percent in 2013). China is the largest importer of Russian food, mostly in the form of raw food products: frozen seafood (about 60 percent of Chinese imports), soybeans, soy oil and sunflower oil. At the moment, Russia's share of Chinese food imports is relatively small. While the U.S. sells $26 billion worth of food products to China every year, Russian exports to China accounted for just $1.13 billion during the first 9 months of 2016. Rising purchasing power The big question is whether Chinese customers will be interested in Russian food products besides raw fish and unprocessed grain. Most observers in Russia are putting high hopes on the growing purchasing power of the Chinese. “The Chinese are becoming richer and are expanding their demand for basic products. Russian mineral water, wheat, meat (especially pork), fish, and dairy products have good prospects on the Chinese market,” says Oleg Remyga, head of the China Studies Lab at the Skolkovo Moscow School of Management. Russia's main food exports are grain and vegetable oil, and the domestic market is already saturated with poultry, pork and sugar. Photo: Chicken farm in Kabardino-Balkaria, Russia. Source: TASS General statistics back up the expectations of Russian firms and prove that the Chinese have started to consume more, in conjunction with the country’s economy growth. China has almost doubled its GDP per capita since 2007 and the Chinese average annual salary has grown dramatically over the last 6-7 years. Consumer spending in China has shown a 150 percent increase since 2007 and this type of growth is expected to continue. According to McKinsey’s recent research findings, the Chinese have become more sophisticated and selective in all aspects of consumption. In addition to this, they are also becoming more concerned about food safety and nutrition quality. “Upper class Chinese consumers are also becoming interested in 'green' products and higher-quality goods,”Remgya added. “They see Russia's Siberia region as a clean and eco-friendly producer of such goods. In addition to this, sweets such ice-cream from Russia are set to become even more popular in China.” At the moment, Russian food companies bank on low-priced and high-quality products in their quest for carving out a niche in the Chinese market. “Russian products are 10-30 percent cheaper than their European or American counterparts. On the other hand, Russian sweets and cookies boast the same quality and perform even better according to their price-to-quality ratio,” a source from the Russian export industry, who is not authorized to speak to the media, said.  How to make a fortune from banned food products Using this competitive advantage, the largest and oldest confectionery holdings of Russia, have already been trying to win over Chinese consumers for several years with brands ‘Alyonka’ and ‘Korovka’. President Xi Jinping has also paid lip service to the Russian sweets industry by telling Vladimir Putin that he likes Russian ice cream. Low prices are not enough However, even Alexey Gruzdev, Russia’s trade representative in China slightly deters the hopes of Russian exporters. He said in a recent interview  that Russian exporters should build up a long-term strategy to become more recognizable in the Chinese market, because, low prices are insufficient to secure a future for Russia's food industry in China, and there is a need for a strategic business development. Artem Zhdanov, a co-owner and marketing director of the UChina consulting company, is also quite skeptical about the existing appeal of Russian products to Chinese consumers. “Russian products are familiar primarily in Xinjiang and in the northern provinces of China,” Zhdanov said. “In the rest of the country, the visibility of Russian products is virtually zero. I would say that Russian products are losing out to those of the U.S, Australia and New Zealand. To change this situation, years of methodical effort are required.” Adjusting to China’s tastes China's Heilongjiang Province is now the biggest consumer of Russian food products in the country. Russia accounts for about 16.6 percent of all foreign trade of the province that is located right on the Sino-Russian border. Russia to invest $43 bln in Europe-Asia transport corridor Local media there is actually beginning to highlight the advantages of “eco-friendly food” from Russia and to discuss the prospects of trade growth between two countries. But the province itself ranks only 21stin the list of Chinese provinces according to GRP and is not the biggest market there. Apparently, there is no chance for Russian producers to extend their reach beyond the Heilongjiang Province without adapting their products to Chinese tastes. “Most Chinese don't like sweet or fat products, so there needs to be less sugar and oil in these goods,” a source from the Russian export industry said. Big marketing campaigns are also required to win over Chinese consumers, according to Artem Zhdanov. “Only a few Russian companies could afford large advertising campaigns, even in a single province,” he said. Eco-friendly products from Russia Despite the weak representation of Russian food products in the Chinese market, Ivan Zuenko, a research fellow at Center for Asia Pacific Studies of Russian Academy of Sciences’ Far Eastern Branch, believes that there are few steps that Russian authorities could take in order to help improve the situation. “The most important thing that only the authorities are capable of doing is the creation and development of a ‘Made in Russia’ brand which focuses on the ecological advantages of Russian products. Without the government's involvement, even our largest exporters will be unable to develop this brand,” Zuenko said. Artem Zhdanov thinks that the branding process could be initiated by the involvement of the Russian Export Center (REC), a development institution created in 2015 with the support of Russian government and Vnesheconombank (VEB). The REC already makes an effort to help Russian exporters enter the Chinese market by organizing their participation in various trade exhibitions. “The right thing to do is to create some kind of association of exporters aimed at the Chinese market with the support of the REC and the government. Such an association could start working on brand development in the China’s market, for example,” Zhdanov said. Russia-China trade background Despite the close political ties between Moscow and Beijing, bilateral trade has been consistently declining during the past few years. 2016 trade turnover finally showed a 2.2 percent increase and reached $69.5 billion. However, trade turnover between the two countries is comparatively small, and it remains very disproportional. China is the leading exporter to Russia, while Moscow is 16th in the list of China's major trade partners. Russian exports to China are dominated by hydrocarbons, with oil and gas amounting to more than 60 percent of these exports.

12 апреля, 13:38

Сбербанк готов помочь крупнейшему ритейлеру Хорватии

Сбербанк готов предоставлять хорватскому крупнейшему ритейлеру Agrokor новое финансирование для спасения при условии, что статус стабилизационного кредита на 100 млн евро, выданного банком в феврале-марте, будет повышен до "самого старшего долга".

20 ноября 2015, 16:50

Книга о рисках роботизации получила приз FT/McKinsey

Бестселлер Мартина Форда "Восхождение роботов: технологии и угроза будущего без работы" назван лучшей книгой для бизнеса 2015 г. по версии издания Financial Times и консалтинговой компании McKinsey & Company.

18 февраля 2014, 14:14

Успехи Техаса и США: нефть и газ животворящие :)

Richard W. Fisher, President and CEOFederal Reserve Bank of DallasDallas, Texas February 11, 2014             - - - - - - - 05 Февраль 2014 О ценах на газ в США http://iv-g.livejournal.com/997777.html   23 Октябрь 2013 U.S. Natural Gas Proved Reserves, 2011. 2 http://iv-g.livejournal.com/956077.html   28 Август 2013 McKinsey: Five opportunities for US growth and renewal (Energy) http://iv-g.livejournal.com/931584.html  26 Август 2013 API.org: Инфографика о добыче сланцевых нефти и газа. 2 http://iv-g.livejournal.com/931067.html   24 Август 2013 API.org: Инфографика о добыче сланцевых нефти и газа http://iv-g.livejournal.com/929565.html   17 Январь 2013 IEA: World Energy Outlook 2012. Presentation to the press http://iv-g.livejournal.com/818512.html  26 Декабрь 2012 forbes: Влияние нетрадиционных газа и нефти на экономику США http://iv-g.livejournal.com/806390.html   25 Июль 2012 Занятость в США и добыча углеводородов http://iv-g.livejournal.com/715320.html     28 Март 2012 Citigroup report. Energy 2020: North America as the new Middle East http://iv-g.livejournal.com/633928.html