У всех на слуху привычные аббревиатуры G7 (Group of Seven) и G20 (Group of Twenty). Это неформальные клубы руководителей семи и двадцати государств, которые каждый год проводят встречи в разных точках мира. К слову сказать, в этом году 44-я встреча "Большой семерки" пройдет в канадском курортном городе Мальбе. А 13-й саммит "Большой двадцатки" запланирован в Буэнос-Айресе
It's A Wonderful Life Is A Wonderful Lesson To Hold Gold Outside of The Banking System - Christmas film serves as reminder that savings are not guaranteed protection by banks- Savers are today more exposed to banking risks than ever before- Gold and silver investment reduce exposure to counterparty risks seen in financial system- Basket of Christmas goods has climbed since 2016 thanks to 11% climb in gold price Frank Capra's 1946 film It's A Wonderful Life is one that many families will be settling down to watch this Christmas weekend. A story that is ultimately about a suicidal man is one of the most watched holiday films of all time. Interestingly it wasn't all that big a hit upon its release (despite garnering five Academy Award nominations) and was disliked by some of the highest intelligence authorities and political thinkers. Ayn Rand worked with the FBI to identify Hollywood Communist propaganda and helped them to conclude that the Christmas film contained several subversive tendencies, including "demonising bankers" and "attempting to instigate class warfare", and was "written by Communist sympathisers". 'Demonising bankers' is an interesting accusation and one that doesn't have to come from an anti-communist perspective. In the 70-odd years since the film's release there has been a growing level of evidence for bankers (and banks) to absolutely be demonised. There are some important lessons to be learnt from the film's protagonist George Bailey. For us the main takeaway for cautious investors and savers is in reference to trusting banks and deposit companies with your hard earned cash. It is a lesson on how exposing your wealth to various counterparties is exposing it to an incalculable level of risk. Furthermore it should be a lesson on the importance of having savings and learning how best to protect them. "The money's not here" A famous scene early on in the film sees James Stewart's George Bailey confront a mob of customers who are demanding their money back from his Bailey Building and Loan community bank. It is implied that there is an larger economic crisis going on and Bailey's savers are panicking about the security of their assets. Bailey tells them that they can't have their money for at least two months. ...you’re thinking of this place all wrong.As if I had the money back in a safe. The money’s not here.Your money’s in Joe’s house...that’s right next to yours.And in the Kennedy House, and Mrs. Macklin’s house, and, and a hundred others. Why, you’re lending them the money to build, and then, they’re going to pay it back to you as best they can. Whilst Bailey's bank is unlikely to operate using a fractional reserve system the lesson for depositors today is the same. At a simple level our banking structure and finances are deeply interwoven so when a bank, big or small, fails, lots of people will feel the pain. Viewers should pay attention to this quick lesson in economic fragility. It's a Wonderful Life shows that the economy at both a national and international level can seemingly change from a healthy position to a dangerous and costly one based on the sort of collective, self-fulfilling beliefs that John Maynard Keynes called "animal spirits". For those of you who have seen the scene of Bailey trying to prevent a run on his bank you will recall how similar his customers' lack of understanding as to how a bank works is similar to the majority of those who use the banking system we have today. As we saw with the Northern Rock crisis depositors are convinced their money is sitting there in the safe. And, they are sure it is still 'their' money (it isn't). Additionally they fail to question how the banks are able to distribute so much money, such as for mortgages or car loans. Are the banks and their failures something we should be worried about? Today a bank run looks quite different to the one we see in It's A Wonderful Life. The sign of a bank run is usually indicated by a long line of people queuing at an item (as per Northern Rock). But, the fear is the same. The fear and threat of too much leverage in the system is still very real. The fear that one big loss could take down an entire bank and wipe out the life savings of many—is arguably even scarier than it was back in 1948. Bank failures today are far more serious than Depression-era failures. This is because so many banks are national and international entities, so intertwined with one another. The collapse of Washington Mutual in 2008, triggered by deposit withdrawals, was the largest failure in U.S. banking history. This year marked ten years since both the start of the financial crisis and the first bank run in the UK in 140 years. The Bank of England, UK government and regulators rushed to salvage what they could. It made little difference, the financial system was terminal. Afterwards then Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, reflected: “In the end the big story, when you look back 10 years, is none of this made any difference at all to the ultimate outcome of what was wrong with the banking system...Whatever we did made no difference to the fact that in the autumn of 2008 the entire banking system failed. Although Northern Rock was a great story in the UK it was little more than a bubble on the boiling sea of the failure of the banking system crisis in 2008.” In a major critique of the stress tests carried out on UK banks Kevin Dowd, a professor of finance and economics at Durham University writes, “The stress tests are about as useful as a cancer test that cannot detect cancer. They seek to demonstrate a financial resilience on the part of UK banks that simply isn’t there...Our banking system is an accident waiting to happen..“It is disturbing that 10 years on from Northern Rock, the best measures of leverage – those based on market values – indicate that UK banks are even more leveraged than they were then,” Savers more exposed than ever Savers are exposed to the huge leverage in the system partly thanks to the huge pensions and debt time bombs that are just looking for a spark to light their short fuse. Currently in the UK savers are exposed to a £1 trillion debt time bomb hanging over the country. We are nearing the end of the timebomb’s long fuse and it looks set to explode in the coming months. It is made up of two major components. £710 billion is the terrifying size of the UK pensions deficit £200 billion is the amount of dynamite in the consumer credit time bomb Why is this? It's because we apparently didn’t learn from the massive man made crisis that was the 2008 financial crisis. The ‘we’ is referring to UK individuals who are holding over £1.5 trillion of household debt. It refers to the pension fund managers who are ignoring the fact they hold more liabilities than assets. It refers to banks and mortgage and loan providers who give loans to people who are already indebted and who will struggle to pay the debt back. It refers to a compliant media who do not have ask hard questions about irresponsible lending practices and cheer lead property bubbles due to getting significant revenues from the banking and property sectors. And, ultimately the ‘we’ is the government who peddled such terrible monetary policy that it has brought us as close to nuclear financial disaster as we have been since 2008. Risks from all sides for savers Sadly it is not just struggling borrowers and pensioners who are exposing savers to increased risks and expense. 10 million savers here in the UK have been royally screwed over by a government announcement that they will be taxed on their savings. Buried deep in the 2017 Autumn budget is a a £1.8billion stealth tax raid, discovered by Royal London who explain: '...one group of victims of the tax increase will be those who have savings products such as endowments and 'whole of life' policies with insurance companies. Under current rules, when these investments grow, tax is paid only on the 'real' return, stripping out the effects of inflation. This tax is collected by the insurance companies and passed on to the government. But from January 2018 tax will be payable on the whole return, including anything which simply keeps pace with inflation. Royal London estimates that this could affect up to three million of its own policy holders and many millions more across the whole insurance sector. Yet the Treasury documents accompanying the announcement wrongly claim that it has 'no impact on individuals or households'...This is a 'stealth tax' on millions of people who have made sacrifices and saved hard and are now penalised with extra tax.' Even if you don't have one of the affected financial products you are still being screwed over by the banks. Interest rates in the UK have been increased to 0.5% in recent months. One would naturally expect to feel the benefit of this should they have savings. However, research by the Daily Mail's money arm found that 'hardly any savers in popular easy-access accounts or in easy-access cash Isas with Barclays, NatWest, RBS, Lloyds, HSBC, Halifax and Santander have benefited from the full rise.' Many will experience just a sixth of the rate hike seen last month. What with the tax liability, inflation and negative real rates of interest it is of little question that savers are exposed to risks. The ECB doesn't care too much about this though and is looking to use individuals' savings to help prop up the banking system thanks to unprotected deposits and bank bail-ins. So it seems there is little savers can do rather than look out for number one. It's a Wonderful Life or It's a Horrible Mess? With best wishes I do hope you really do wake up to think that It's a Wonderful Life. But beyond the Christmas cosiness of your own home it really is seemingly a Horrible Mess. According to the PNC's calculations the true cost of the Twelve Days of Christmas basket climbed by 0.7% when (US) inflation-adjusted. The main culprits were the Pear Tree, the Lords-a-leaping and the Five Gold Rings. Of those three it was the Gold Rings which saw the biggest increase in price this last year thanks to gold climbing by over 11% in the last twelve months. This is something to take advantage of and to ensure that yours can be a Wonderful Life and not one of the holiday kind. Savers and prudent spenders can do very little about the current mess of things. All we can do is protect our own finances. This isn't something to be done by rushing to the bank when things go wrong in the hope that you'll be able to withdraw all of your money by some miracle. The level of debt in the financial system in the UK and most western countries is completely unsustainable. For the majority of savers this means personal finances and savings held in deposit accounts are at risk from banks' over-leveraging. This in turn puts them at risk of bail-ins. Bank bail-ins and negative rates seem increasingly inevitable. Make sure your savings are not exposed to these risks by diversifying into counterparty risk free gold and silver coins and bars for insured delivery and secure storage. Related reading Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis UK Pensions and Debt Time Bomb: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection News and Commentary Gold holds steady as U.S. data leaves dollar stable (Reuters.com) Gold struggles for direction as investors sort out tax-cut implications (MarketWatch.com) U.S. third-quarter economic growth trimmed; jobless claims rise (Reuters.com) Leading economic indicators rise 0.4 percent, meet expectations (CNBC.com) FHFA: Home prices continue to soar on West Coast (HouseingWire.com) Source: Bloomberg Ted Butler: A 10-year-deal to let JPM rig silver? (Gata.org) U.K. Consumer Confidence Hits a Four-Year Low (Bloomberg.com) This Dollar Shortage Isn’t Likely to Last (Bloomberg.com) WATCH: Chinese Gold Market Developments and Insights (Youtube.com) Bitcoin is No Substitute for Gold, says CNBC Mad Money Host Jim Cramer (CryptoVest.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 22 Dec: USD 1,268.05, GBP 947.74 & EUR 1,069.85 per ounce21 Dec: USD 1,265.85, GBP 945.97 & EUR 1,065.09 per ounce20 Dec: USD 1,265.95, GBP 944.27 & EUR 1,068.21 per ounce19 Dec: USD 1,263.10, GBP 944.93 & EUR 1,070.10 per ounce18 Dec: USD 1,258.65, GBP 943.11 & EUR 1,067.71 per ounce15 Dec: USD 1,257.25, GBP 937.41 & EUR 1,065.52 per ounce14 Dec: USD 1,255.60, GBP 935.67 & EUR 1,062.49 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 22 Dec: USD 16.18, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.65 per ounce21 Dec: USD 16.15, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.61 per ounce20 Dec: USD 16.19, GBP 12.09 & EUR 13.67 per ounce19 Dec: USD 16.16, GBP 12.08 & EUR 13.68 per ounce18 Dec: USD 16.09, GBP 12.04 & EUR 13.64 per ounce15 Dec: USD 15.99, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.55 per ounce14 Dec: USD 16.01, GBP 11.92 & EUR 13.54 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Goldnomics Podcast – Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin in 2018. Everything Bubble Bursts?- What Peak Gold, Interest Rates And Current Geopolitical Tensions Mean For Gold in 2018- New Rules For Cross-Border Cash and Gold Bullion Movements- ‘Gold Strengthens Public Confidence In The Central Bank’ – Bundesbank- WGC: 2018 Set To Be A Positive Year For Price of Gold and Investors- Year-end Rate Hike Once Again Proves To Be Launchpad For Gold Price- UK Stagflation Risk As Inflation Hits 3.1% and House Prices Fall- Buy Gold, Silver Time After Speculators Reduce Longs and Banks Reduce Shorts- Bitcoin – Plan Your Exit Strategy Now – Maybe With Gold- Gold Demand Increases Along with Uncertainty Thanks to Trump, Brexit and North Korea- UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold- Bailins Coming In EU – 114 Italian Banks Have NP Loans Exceeding Tangible Assets- Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
Ex-Cameron adviser says Mervyn King was strong advocate of opening up immigration without transitional controls, which partly drove Brexit voteMervyn King encouraged Tony Blair to open the doors to immigration from eastern Europe without any transitional controls, according to a former senior diplomat who claims the decision partly drove the Brexit vote more than a decade later.Sir Ivan Rogers, who went on to be David Cameron’s leading adviser on Europe and then Britain’s EU ambassador, called it “an under-appreciated irony” that King – who eventually became a vocal Eurosceptic – was a strong advocate of the move. Continue reading...
The minutes for the FOMC’s Oct/Nov meeting will be released at 2pm today, and are expected to be uneventful, just like the Fed meeting during which the central bank held rates between 1.00% and 1.25% in a unanimous vote, as expected, and where the only notable tweak was the small upgrade in the language used to describe the US economy, which is now seen to be expanding at a “solid rate” (versus “rising moderately” before), despite the disruptions caused by the recent hurricanes. This implicit upgrade prompted the market and economists to assign a virtual certainty to a December rate hike; indeed according to the CME's FedWatch, the odds of a December rate hike are 100%. “In recent weeks,” HSBC says, “many Fed policymakers have said that they are watching inflation closely. Even so, a number of these officials have expressed the view that they would likely be willing to support a rate hike in December.” Still, after yesterday's Q&A by Janet Yellen at NYU Stern, doubts have emerged, and nowhere more so than with Rafiki Capital's Steven Englander, who cautions that today's Minutes "are likely to point to less confidence on an inflation pickup than three hikes in the dots suggest." He references Yellen's comments yesterday, which "suggest that she has less confidence in the three hikes that she very likely put into her 2018 dot plot." Consider Yellen's comments yesterday indicating that she is 'very uncertain' about the inflation path over the next year: "My colleagues and I are very uncertain that it [weak inflation] is transitory." If you read Evans' and Brainard's comments they look close to a dissent on the December hike (along with Kashkari). By contrast, the market has been pricing in more and more 2018 hiking risk. The maroon line in the chart below shows the increase in hiking expectations in recent weeks, with investors pricing in more than 1 1/2 hikes for the first time since April." If Englander is right, we could have "a bit of a reckoning in the two year note yield," which as Jeff Gundlach pointed out, has soared by 15bps in November. 2 Yr UST yield now up > 50 bp in < 3 months. “Fed behind the curve” narrative joining “flattening doesn’t matter” narrative. So predictable! — Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) November 21, 2017 That said, Englander concedes that ultimately tax reform will be more important for bonds "so expect any drop in yields to be temporary" unless of course, tax reform fails. As for equities, Englander states that while "appetite for risk may still be shaky" (one wonders just what about S&P 2,600 suggests risk appetite is shaky) "look for the somewhat dovish tone to the Minutes on inflation along with increased optimism on activity to firm up risk appetite. The long term takeaway for investors is that the Fed is shifting from tightening because it worries about an inflation pickup to opportunistic tightening to move away form the zero bound without damaging activity. This is a positive for risk appetite and expectations of the durability of the expansion." Actually, we disagree: the fact that financial conditions have not tightened one inch since the Fed has started hiking, shows perfectly well that the market is convinced that the moment equities suffer a selloff, the Fed will either back off hiking, or will launch QE4. That is what is positive for risk appetite, and it will be up to the Fed to disabuse the market of this assumption which will lead to the "irrational exuberance" bubble Goldman warned about yesterday. Englander's bottom line: "December is firmly grounded, but quite possibly with dissents, and the there is more open mind on structural disinflation than the three hikes dot plot consensus would suggest." So what are other banks saying? Here is a breakdown courtesy of RanSquawk: BARCLAYS: The only real surprise in the November FOMC statement was the upgrade of the assessment of economic activity relative to prior months. Outside of that modest alteration, the remainder of the statement was in line with our expectation. We believe there is a consensus within the committee for a third rate hike this year in December and look for the minutes to provide confirmation of this intended action. That said, we also believe there is willingness by some committee members to pause and assess where inflation trends are before signalling confidence about the appropriate policy path next year. Hence, we expect language that expresses concern about recent inflation trends and whether disinflation this year is persistent or transitory in nature. DB: While we do not expect anything in the minutes to dissuade market participants from assigning a high likelihood of a December rate hike, several Fed officials, including 2018 FOMC voters Bostic, Mester, and Williams have signalled an openness to rethinking the Fed’s broader operating framework. In turn, we would not be surprised to see officials beginning to discuss potentially major changes to elements of its operating framework that could include the inflation target or other related strategies such as price level targeting. Former Fed chair Bernanke has also recently weighed in on this topic, arguing in favor of temporary price level targeting if the fed funds rate hits the effective lower bound in the future. While Chair Yellen’s appearance on Tuesday evening at NYU Stern Business School is being billed as a conversation with Mervyn King, the debate around inflation targeting, which has been the mantra of most central banks for the last several decades, could be a notable feature of the discussion. HSBC: We do not expect any major surprises to come from the minutes of the 31 October to 1 November meeting. The policy statement released in November described economic activity as "solid", despite the recent hurricanes. In addition, the statement noted that inflation was expected to remain below 2% in the near term but to stabilise around the 2% target over the medium term. In recent weeks, many Fed policymakers have said that they are watching inflation closely. Even so, a number of these officials have expressed the view that they would likely be willing to support a rate hike in December. The November statement had little new to say about the balance sheet normalisation programme initiated by the Fed in October. However, the minutes of the meeting are likely to show some discussion by the Fed staff and policymakers regarding how the programme is proceeding so far. ING: The FOMC minutes (Wed) will continue to allude to diverging views within the committee and is unlikely inspire much upside in US rates or the USD this week. Nonetheless, we expect the markets’ Fed-obsession to come to a halt in 2018 as monetary policy re-pricing opportunities look to be greater elsewhere. MORGAN STANLEY: The FOMC minutes are often revised nearly all the way up until the release and can be edited to stress important points. We look for the Fed to resume its gradual path of rate hikes again in December. RBC: FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed): We don’t expect any significant news from the minutes of the November 1st FOMC meeting, which is fortunate because most market participants will be busy baking pumpkin pies when it is released at 2pm on Wednesday. There will be a brief discussion of the impact of the hurricanes, but the statement already indicated that the FOMC believes “the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term”. There is also a very slim chance that the FOMC begins to discuss the ultimate size of the Fed balance sheet (short answer: unless you know the LCR rules in the future and the relative spread between IOER and short Treasuries, you can’t know the ultimate size of the balance sheet). TD SECURITIES: Markets all but fully expect a Dec rate hike, with around 1.5 hikes priced for 2018. Thus we expect the market to largely look past debates around Dec in the Nov FOMC minutes as old news. The bigger question is whether they give any signal about the path for rates next year. Our base case is that there won’t be enough clarity in the discussion to suggest clear changes to the Dec dot plot.
Бывший глава Банка Англии, лорд Мервин Кинг, повысил свою критику глобального регулирования банковских операций, заявив, что после глобального финансового кризиса 2008 года недостаточно, чтобы банки просто не рухнули. Лорд Кинг говорит, что существует «множество возможностей для переосмысления» банковского регулирования. «Я не думаю, что у нас есть банковская система, которая безопасна», - сказал он в программе ABC The Business . Глобальные регулирующие органы, возглавляемые Базельским комитетом, установили новые минимумы в отношении суммы наличных денег, которую банки должны удерживать в качестве буфера от любого шока, а стандарты кредитования были тщательно изучены и улучшены. Но этого недостаточно, по словам лорда Кинга, который был главой Банка Англии с 2003 по 2013 год. "Идея о том, что мы устранили весь риск от системы, ошибочна", - сказал он. "Мы находимся на рекордных уровнях задолженности домашних хозяйств, но это не просто долг, угрожающий рынку жилья. Сумма задолженности в мире сегодня выше, чем до финансового кризиса, поэтому мы не решили эту проблему", - сказал Кинг. "Волатильность на рынках, похоже, находится на рекордно низком уровне. Это, я думаю, очень тревожно. Если абсолютная шкала долга станет серьезной проблемой или должна произойти переоценка риска, то центральные банки не смогут легко и быстро сделать быстрые и значимые действия, снизив ставки - учитывая, что они все близки к нулю уже" - отметил Кинг. "Кредиторы должны проявлять бдительность, чтобы гарантировать, что их политика и практика являются разумными и ответственными. Короче говоря, повышенный риск требует повышенного благоразумия". Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 249 thousand the previous week.• Also at 8:30 AM, Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for November). The consensus is for a reading of 97.9, up from the preliminary reading 97.8.• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 31- November 1, 2017NYU Stern's "In Conversation with Mervyn King" Series Presents Janet Yellen, Tuesday, November 21, 2017
The NYU Stern school of business is hosting the latest installment of the "In Conversation with Mervyn King" series featuring outgoing Fed chair, ?Janet Yellen, who in just over two months, will depart the Fed, making way for her replacement, former Carlyle partner Jay Powell. While her speech is not expected to provide any market-moving revelations, it will be one of her last public appearances, and as such she is expected to give her perspective on the "4 rate hikes in 2015" fiasco, how central-planning and bubble blowing has changed over the past 4 years, and also her outlook on how this entire experiment in monetary insanity ends. Enjoy.
Bonds, Futures, Global Stocks All Rise, Boosted By "Germany's Brexit Moment"; TSY Curve Collapse Continues
S&P 500 futures are higher, continuing on yesterday's momentum, after European and Asian shares also rose alongside a rebound in oil, as the year-end performance chase appears to be accelerating. There were several different moving parts in a mixed European session, in which early Euro strength gave way to weakness... ... which in turn pushed the Stoxx 600 and US index futures higher, rising above yesterday's session high on negligible volumes. Global equity futures rallied with Hang Seng futures outperforming and flash smashing to close the session, after a strong finish for Chinese equities following a report out of MNI that Chinese deleveraging may not be as stringent next year. European stocks rose this morning (Stoxx 600 +0.3%) as the Euro sank, helped by positive notes out from Goldman Sachs, who are overweight European automakers. Goldman said in a Europe strategy note that “deep value sectors” (autos, oil, and utilities) will help Stoxx Europe to return 12% in next 12 months. As a result, European automakers outperform led by VW for a second straight day, with the SXAP index advancing as much as 1.9%, best of 19 groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark (Volkswagen +3.8%, Porsche +2.7%, BMW +2%, Daimler +1.7%). Additionally, Imperial Brand shares rallied after their CEO change, as analysts speculate that this could increase the likelihood that the company will be taken over by Japan Tobacco. Airliner EasyJet is flying high this morning following strong financial results. Bunds are taking another look at 163.00+ levels having faded rallies above the big figure on several occasions recently. Stocks have already moved on from this weekend's German government crisis: German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Germany was facing its worst governing crisis in the 68-year history of its post-World War Two democracy and pressed all parties in parliament “to serve our country” and try to form a government. “The events have already been likened to Germany’s Brexit-moment,” said Daniel van Schoot, an economist at Rabobank. “That is perhaps exaggerated, but the German political situation is now very unpredictable, more than in the past three decades.” Bonds across the region followed a rise in Treasuries after the European Central Bank was said to be likely to make only small adjustments to its guidance on monetary policy next year. EGBs rallied led by gilts which are supported ahead of index extension tomorrow, additionally some focus from European traders on dovish ECB sources piece from yesterday. The dollar stayed within relatively tight ranges versus its major peers, with average volumes. The euro and the pound edged higher, backed by leveraged interest, only to be capped by their respective 55-DMAs before shedding gains. The Swedish krona led G-10 losses on the back of record low interbank rate fixings, while the Turkish lira pared a drop to an all-time low after the central bank raised borrowing costs. Meanwhile, sterling was steady and gilts advanced amid reports Prime Minister Theresa May has the backing of ministers to offer the European Union more money to break the Brexit deadlock. The Australian dollar dropped to a five-month low after suggestions from the central bank that interest rates will stay lower for longer; EUR/SEK breache'd 10.00 briefly before fading back. Turkey’s lira hit a new record low against the dollar but pared some of the drop after its central bank tightened liquidity, as the standoff between Erodogan and central bank continues. In overnight central bank announcements, the Bank of England's Deputy Governor Cunliffe said inflation has been a bit lower than BoE forecast in Autumn and that it’s possible to wait before tightening policy until there is clear evidence that pay growth is responding to unemployment level. Elsewhere, RBA minutes from November 7th meeting stated that any further appreciation in AUD would slow expected pick-up in inflation and the economy. The minutes also stated that there is considerable uncertainty on how fast wages might pick up and add to inflation, while it added that a pass through to inflation may be delayed by many factors. RBA's Lowe stated that there is 'not a strong case' for near-term change in interest rates with the bank paying attention to soft wage growth. In the U.S., confirmation that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will leave the board in February creates a fourth vacancy for President Trump to fill, making it trickier for investors to bet on the central bank’s interest rate trajectory next year. While the Thanksgiving holiday gives traders an excuse to pause, equities are heading into the end of the year near their peaks, with investors optimistic about global growth and company earnings. Meanwhile the collapse in the US Treasury curve continued, with 2s10s moving below 60bps, and screaming inversion as soon as early next year. At the same time, The gap between French and German borrowing costs on Tuesday narrowed to its tightest level since before the euro zone debt crisis of 2010-2012. Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 0.34%, the lowest in almost two weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield decreased four basis points to 1.257%, the lowest in almost two weeks. Japan’s 10-year yield dipped one basis point to 0.033%, the lowest in more than a week. Oil prices rose on expectations of an extended OPEC-led production cut, although rising output in the United States capped gains. Brent crude futures were up 0.78 percent to $62.72. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6 percent to $56.09 a barrel. Gold increased 0.3 percent to $1,280.39 an ounce. Copper gained 0.3 percent to $3.13 a pound, the highest in more than a week. Expected economic data include Chicago Fed National Activity Index and existing home sales. Companies including Medtronic, Lowe’s, Salesforce, Analog Devices, HP Enterprise and HP Inc. are reporting earnings Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk EU bourses firmer this morning with auto names racing away amid a positive note from Goldman Sachs FX price action fairly tepid thus far. Looking ahead, highlights include US existing home sales, APIs, ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Yellen Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 2,586.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% at 387.49 MSCI Asia up 0.9% to 171.57 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 1.1% to 565.37 Nikkei up 0.7% to 22,416.48 Topix up 0.7% to 1,771.13 Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 29,818.07 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,410.50 Sensex up 0.4% to 33,492.20 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,963.52 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,530.70 German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 0.346% Euro down 0.08% to $1.1724 Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.543% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 1.491% Brent futures up 0.8% to $62.69/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,280.53 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.08 Top Overnight News U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won the backing of ministers on both sides of her divided cabinet to offer the European Union more money to break the Brexit talks deadlock; Barring some major breakthrough, global banks will implement their relocation plans early next year to guarantee they’re able to have new offices inside the EU running by the time the U.K. exits German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’s ready to face voters again to break the country’s political stalemate, betting they won’t blame her for failed talks on forming a coalition Germany: FDP chairman reaffirms rejection of four-party talks; SPD reiterates they will not be part of a grand coalition Putin held a surprise meeting with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, kicking off a diplomatic drive this week to outline the terms of an end to the Middle Eastern country’s civil war; Putin will speak by phone with Trump later Tuesday, the Kremlin said The ECB is likely to make multiple small adjustments to its guidance on monetary policy next year rather than any major change in language as it ends quantitative easing, according to euro-area officials familiar with the thinking of policy makers BOE: Cunliffe says CPI will peak in 4Q 2017, it’s possible to wait before tightening; McCafferty says equilibrium unemployment rate may be below 4.5% RBA’s Lowe: no strong case for a near-term adjustment in policy, more likely that next move in rates will be higher; increasingly likely that inflation will be subdued for some time yet MNI: PBOC deleveraging campaign may ease somewhat in 2018; PBOC will continue to manage currency and capital controls for at least another decade, according to people familiar Turkey Central Bank: has decided to provide all funding from its late liquidity window effective Wednesday, which will raise the weighted average cost of funding by 25bps Nestle Is Said to Be Among Potential Hain Celestial Suitors AT&T, U.S. Prepare to Battle in Court Over Time Warner Merger Cannabis Grower Aurora Plans to Go Hostile With CanniMed Bid ECB Is Said Likely to Take Small Steps in QE Exit Guidance Asian equity markets were higher across the board as the region took the impetus from the positive close on Wall St, with Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) underpinned as exporters benefitted from JPY weakness. The benchmark Japanese index briefly broke above the 22,500 level as stocks coat-tailed on the rebound in USD/JPY, with Toshiba reprieved from yesterday’s slump to sit among the biggest gainers. ASX 200 (+0.3%) also traded with broad-based optimism across its sectors albeit to a lesser extent and Chinese markets completed the upbeat picture following another significant liquidity operation by the PBoC, with the Hang Seng (+1.5%) leading on continued gains in its largest weighted stock Tencent which recently became a member of the exclusive USD 500bln market-cap-club. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat throughout the session with demand subdued by the broad positive risk tone and a tepid longer-dated enhanced liquidity auction, although a mild uptick was seen in late trade as prices broke above 151.00. PBoC injected CNY 130bln in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 40bln in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln in 63-day reverse repos. Net of maturities, the injection was only CNY 10bn however. PBoC also set the CNY mid-point weaker at 6.6356 vs Prev. 6.6271. Elsewhere, the Japanese Government to cut 30 and 40 year JGB supply in FY 2018/2019. Top Japanese News; Top Fund Backs Tencent to Drive Hong Kong Index Even Higher China H Shares Jump to Two-Year High as Financial Firms Rally Richest Asian Banker Sees Once-in-Lifetime India Opportunity Turkey Lifts Bank-Funding Costs as Lira Weakens to All-Time Low European equities modestly higher this morning (Stoxx 600 +0.2%), with positive notes out from Goldman Sachs, who are overweight European automakers. Goldman said in a Europe strategy note that “deep value sectors” (autos, oil, and utilities) will help Stoxx Europe to return 12% in next 12 months. As a result, European automakers outperform led by VW for a second straight day, with the SXAP index advancing as much as 1.9%, best of 19 groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark (Volkswagen +3.8%, Porsche +2.7%, BMW +2%, Daimler +1.7%). Additionally, Imperial Brand shares rallied after their CEO change, as analysts speculate that this could increase the likelihood that the company will be taken over by Japan Tobacco. Airliner EasyJet is flying high this morning following strong financial results. Bunds are taking another look at 163.00+ levels having faded rallies above the big figure on several occasions recently. The bullish fundamentals and flow/positioning motives are well known and documented, but chart-wise market contacts note that support around 162.86 (rising trendline and Monday’s late Eurex base) held on the downside, prompting some intraday buying for a bounce to 163.06 resistance initially and then 163.16 (yesterday’s session peak) vs a high so far at 163.15. Beyond that, 163.22 needs to be breached to expose 163.40 and this month’s 163.63 peak. However, another retreat and failure to retain grasp of the 163.00 handle will bring 162.82 back into play as support (Monday’s actual intraday low), and on a break those short term longs not booking profit at 163.06 are expected to bail. Turning to Gilts, more upside also seen and a return to the 125-plus zone, at 125.29 for a 33 tick gain on the day vs 12 tick loss at one stage, before easing back slightly on larger than forecast UK PSNB shortfalls. Top European News Brexit-Hit Banks Said to Start Moving Staff Abroad in Early 2018 Paris, Amsterdam Brexit Winners as Coin Toss Assigns EU Agencies May Prepares New Brexit Offer After Talks With Ministers U.K. Budget Deficit Widens as Inflation Boosts Debt Costs Uniper Tells Shareholders to Reject Fortum’s Takeover Offer EasyJet Reaping Benefit of Ryanair Retreat as Winter Prices Gain In FX markets, price action has been relatively contained thus far. The USD index is firmer around the 94.000 handle in thin holiday-impacted trade, with the USD gaining ground vs most major counterparts on a generally more risk-on mood. EUR has been resilient in the face of Germany’s struggles to form a new Government and the threat of another election. EUR/USD continues to find support ahead of stops around 1.1720 and bids at 1.1700, with reported fixing demand in Asia propping the pair, but the 100 DMA around 1.1745-50 capping recovery gains. Elsewhere, AUD has rebounded from overnight lows post-RBA minutes, as Governor Lowe underlined that the next move in rates will be up, although the lead time to any tightening remains lengthy. Meanwhile, GBP was unreactive to the latest public borrowing data as markets look to see whether or not PM May will get the green-light for an enhanced divorce bill offer to the EU. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have continued to climb through the European session with energy related newsflow on the light-side as prices retrace some of the declines seen in the early stages of yesterday’s session. Energy markets are looking ahead to next week’s OPEC meeting, however, markets are firmly expecting an extension to existing production cuts in lieu of recent rhetoric from the cartel. In metals markets, gold only managed to nurse some of yesterday’s losses overnight as a broad positive risk tone kept safe-haven demand subdued. Copper maintained most of the prior session’s gains with prices supported by the risk appetite and amid gains in Chinese steel and iron ore prices on optimism for increased demand following the winter season. Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers will likely be the centre of attention again with Fed Chair Yellen due to speak in the evening as part of a series with former BoE governor Mervyn King, while the ECB’s Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt in the afternoon. Datawise, UK public sector net borrowing and CBI trends data for October and November are due, while in the US the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales data for October is due. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.2 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.4m, prior 5.39m 10am: Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.19%, prior 0.7% 6pm: Fed’s Yellen Speaks at Stern Business School DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap There wasn't much contagion yesterday after the surprise collapse in German coalition talks late on Sunday night. Over the last couple of years negative market reaction to political shocks has often been over before you can digest it fully. Examples being the Greek and Brexit referendums and the Trump election results. Although the German coalition talks collapsing is much lower key than these events, it was still interesting that the DAX was only negative for 1 hour 16mins and that the Euro had snapped back into positive territory 37 minutes earlier even if it did soften again as the day progressed closing -0.49% against the dollar. The DAX closed +0.50% (high to low had been as much as +1.23%) and the Stoxx 600 +0.67% (range 0.91%). Overall it’s hard to see what the solution is to the gridlock in Germany but it’s also hard to see it being that negative for markets other than at the margin. Mrs Merkel yesterday effectively ruled out a minority government and the SPD continue to rule out a return to a Grand Coalition so unless talks can be reignited, a snap election early next year seems increasingly likely. As an outsider not as familiar with the German election process as many of my readers I can't help wondering how a fresh election will help much with recent polls seemingly not changing that much from the September 24th election. However, perhaps the campaigning would persuade enough voters to change their mind that the coalition math might be easier. Unlikely but possible. The good news from our economists in Germany is that the political system means there's no power vacuum and thus no time pressure to progress things. This probably helped prevent the market reacting too negatively yesterday although it can’t be too positive at the margin for Brexit talks and for fresh Macron/ Merkel European initiatives in the near-term. For more on the technicalities and options open now see the note "Coalition talks collapsed - unchartered territory ahead" from our German economists yesterday. Overnight, the Fed’s Yellen has confirmed that she will be stepping down from the Board of Governors once Mr Powell is sworn into the office. Her vacancy will give President Trump a fourth spot to fill in the new Fed, including the Vice Chairman spot. Elsewhere, Trump has redesignated North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism and the Treasury department is expected to announce additional sanctions today. Notably, Secretary of State Tillerson “still hopes for diplomacy” with the State. We wonder whether North Korea will retaliate with some form of defiance after this so watch out for that. This morning in Asia, markets have followed the positive lead from the US. The Hang Seng (+1.30%), Nikkei (+0.93%), Kospi (+0.15%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.40%) are all up as we type. Turning to Brexit headlines, it seems that in addition to the stalemate on UK’s financial settlement to the EU, there are other unresolved issues before talks can move onto trade and a transition deal. Chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier has noted that the Irish border will require a specific solution and it’s up to “those who wanted Brexit” to come up with those solutions. Elsewhere, he has warned “the legal consequence of Brexit is that the UK financial services providers lose their passport (rights to the EU bloc)”. Also press reports last night suggested that PM May has cabinet approval to double the settlement offer from the current EUR20bln. Moving onto central bankers’ commentaries now. The ECB’s Draghi reiterated that despite the sound economic recovery, “underlying inflation pressures are still subdued as labour market slack remains significant….(and that we) still need time to translate into dynamic wage growth”. On non-performing loans in the EU bloc, he cautioned that we need to “…work together to cope with this problem….but at the same time doesn’t create the destabilizing effects that people fear”. On Brexit, he noted it was difficult to properly analyse, mainly because “we don’t have yet a precise or even imprecise view of what the negotiating platform will be”. Notably, he said that the Brexit “transition can be managed in a smooth way…but it should be done without compromising over the integrity of the single market”, although “this is easier to be said than done”. Following on, BOE policy maker Mr Ramsden has warned that Brexit could put the economy in an “unusual” slow down for years. He noted “given the long horizon over which the effects of Brexit could play out, we’re likely to be on the flat part of the saucer for some time”. On his decision to dissent on the recent rate hike, he noted there may be more room for the economy to grow without price gains, noting “…one must pay close attention to any signs that above target inflation is feeding through to second-round effects in domestic costs…so far, that doesn’t seem to be the case”. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. US equities all strengthened, with both the S&P and Nasdaq up c0.1% and Dow up 0.31%. Within the S&P, telco (+0.97%) and financials stocks rebounded and led the gains, with partial offsets from health care and utilities names. European markets were all modestly higher despite the German political instability. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (+0.67%), DAX (+0.50%) and CAC (+0.40%) rose modestly, while the FTSE 100 was the relative underperformer (+0.12%). The modest risk on bias was evident in volatility measures, with the VIX down for the third consecutive day (-6.8% to 10.65) while the VSTOXX also fell -7.05% after spending only 43 minutes higher at the open. Over in government bonds, core bond yields were mixed but little changed (UST 10y: +2.3bp; Bunds +0.2bp; Gilts -0.3bp), while peripherals outperformed with Italy and Spanish yields down 3-4bp. Elsewhere, the flattening across the Treasury curve has continued with the 5s30s curve c3bp flatter to 68.8bp, marking a fresh 10 year low. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling gained 0.44% and 0.12% respectively, while Euro fell 0.49% following the aforementioned developments in Germany. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.58%, in part as investors await potential confirmation of production cuts in the upcoming OPEC meeting on 30th November. Elsewhere, precious metals weakened (Gold -1.20%;Silver -2.30%), with Gold down the most since late September, while other base metals were mixed (Copper +0.91%; Zinc -0.06%; Aluminium -1.44%). Away from the markets, DB’s China research team have published another note looking at China’s macro risks. They have noticed new signs of a tightening in fiscal and monetary policies over the past week. For example, on the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance issued a document to tighten control over public private partnership projects. On monetary front, the government released draft guidelines on the asset management sector, which from a macro perspective could structurally constrain financial leverage and further tighten credit growth. Overall, the team believes these new measures are positive for China in the long term, but in the next 6 months they will likely cause the economy to slow. Elsewhere the latest ECB holdings were released yesterday. Net CSPP purchases last week was €2.33bn and Net PSPP purchases €12.27bn. This left the CSPP/PSPP ratio at 19.0% last week (15.4% over the last 4 weeks vs. 11.5% before QE was trimmed in April 2017). Although we don’t think CSPP will be trimmed much after the January taper last week’s buying seemed anomalous in part as issuance was high over the period and the ECB may have taken advantage of this, particularly as the upcoming holiday season might bring liquidity challenges later on. Moving to the limited macro data releases from yesterday. In the US, the October Conference board leading index was above expectations at 1.2% mom (vs. 0.8% expected) and 5.2% yoy - the highest since May 2015. In Germany, the October PPI was in line at 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy. In Japan, we saw a trade surplus of JPY323bn in October, which was modestly larger than expected. Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers will likely be the centre of attention again with Fed Chair Yellen due to speak late in the evening as part of a series with former BoE governor Mervyn King, while the ECB’s Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt in the afternoon. Datawise, UK public sector net borrowing and CBI trends data for October and November are due, while in the US the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales data for October is due.
Сегодня в Нью-Йорке в 23:00 GMT состоится выступление пока еще главы Федеральной Резервной Системы Джанет Йеллен. Во вторник вечером по местному времени в здании NYU Stern Business School состоится дискуссионный разговор между председателем Йеллен и Мервином Кингом (бывшим управляющим Банком Англии). Дискуссия будет проходить вокруг вопроса таргетирования инфляции, которая была «мантрой» большинства центральных банков в течение последних нескольких десятилетий. В Deutsche Bank не исключают вероятности того, что председатель ФРС немного отклонится от темы и даст свои комментарии относительно текущих планов регулятора. В связи с предупреждают своих клиентов быть внимательными с операциями по доллару сегодня поздно вечером, когда рынок «тонкий». Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
From the Federal Reserve: Janet L. Yellen will step down as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective upon the swearing in of her successor as ChairJanet L. Yellen submitted her resignation Monday as a Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, effective upon the swearing in of her successor as Chair.Dr. Yellen, 71, was appointed to the Board by President Obama for an unexpired term ending January 31, 2024. Her term as Chair expires on February 3, 2018. She also serves as Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, the System's principal monetary policymaking body.Prior to her appointment as Chair, Dr. Yellen served as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors, from October 2010 to February 2014, and as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, from June 2004 to October 2010. She was initially appointed to the Board by President Clinton in August 1994 and served until February 1997, when she resigned to serve as Chair of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, until August 1999.Dr. Yellen is Professor Emerita at the University of California at Berkeley, where she has been a member of the faculty since 1980. She was born in Brooklyn, New York, in August 1946 and received her undergraduate degree in economics from Brown University in 1967 and her Ph.D. in economics from Yale University in 1971. Dr. Yellen is married and has an adult son.A copy of her resignation letter is attached.Tuesday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.40 million SAAR, up from 5.39 million in August. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.60 million SAAR for October. Take the Over.• At 6:00 PM, Panel Discussion with Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Moderated discussion with Mervyn King, At the New York University Stern School of Business, New York, New York
It's a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened (in the US) week, in which volumes are expected to grind lower as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday. In the US, existing home sales will be reported on Tues, expected to edge up to 5.4mn saar in Oct from 5.39mn in Sep. One day later, we get the durable goods orders (exp. increase to 0.3% in Oct, slowing from 2.0% in each of the previous two months). Also on Wednesday, the FOMC minutes should reveal a committee that is preparing for another hike before year-end with a generally upbeat assessment of the economy. Chair Yellen will offer remarks in a conversational setting with former Governor of the BOE Mervyn King on Tues. Elsewhere, on Wed, U.K. Chancellor Hammond presents the UK budget to parliament. A worsening fiscal outlook in the Budget on productivity forecast downgrades and pressure to ease austerity will likely mean an early end to the BOE's tightening plans. BofA forecasts a cumulative increase of £46bn in borrowing between 2017-2021. In the short term the news on borrowing should be positive, reflecting recent resilient tax revenues. In the medium term productivity misery dominates. Risks are skewed to more fiscal worsening in future budgets. Here is a breakdown of key global events on a day to day basis, courtesy of DB's Jim Reid Monday: The main focus on Monday will likely be the EU foreign and European affairs ministers discussing Brexit, followed by a briefing from the bloc’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier. The location for the European Banking Authority is also to be decided. Away from that, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to attend a hearing at European Parliament in the afternoon, while the ECB’s Nowotny, Lautenschlaeger and Constancio are also due to speak through the day. The only data release of note is the US conference board’s leading index for October. Tuesday: Central bank speakers will likely be the centre of attention again with Fed Chair Yellen due to speak late in the evening as part of a series with former BoE governor Mervyn King, while the ECB’s Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt in the afternoon. Datawise, UK public sector net borrowing and CBI trends data for October and November is due, while in the US the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales data for October is due. Wednesday: The big focus on Wednesday in the UK will be Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s Budget statement in Parliament, due at midday. In the evening we will also receive the FOMC minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting. Datawise, the most significant release of note is the flash October durable and capital goods orders data in the US. The latest weekly initial jobless claims data is also due along with the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Thursday: With it being Thanksgiving in the US, both bond and stock markets will remain closed across the pond. It’s a fairly packed schedule in Europe however, highlighted by the release of the November flash PMIs for the Euro area, Germany and France. The final Q3 GDP report is also due in Germany while in the UK we’ll get the second reading. ECB speakers on Thursday include Villeroy and Coeure while the ECB minutes from the last policy meeting are also due. Friday: A quiet end to the week. The flash November manufacturing PMI in Japan will be out overnight, while in Germany we’ll receive the November IFO survey. In the US we’ll receive the flash November PMIs. Black Friday also marks the traditional start of the US holiday shopping season. One other event potentially keeping an eye on is S&P and Moody’s scheduled sovereign rating reviews of South Africa, with the country at risk of losing its investment grade status. The ECB’s Supervisory chair Ms Nouy will also speak today. Finally, Goldman focuses on key US events, alongside consensus forecasts. The key economic releases this week are the minutes from the October 31-November 1 FOMC meeting and the durable goods orders report, both on Wednesday. There is one speaking engagement with Chair Yellen this week. Monday, November 20 There are no major economic data releases. Tuesday, November 21 10:00 AM Existing home sales, October (GS +1.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%): We estimate existing home sales rose 1.5% in October (mom sa), adding to the 0.7% post-hurricane rebound that began in September. Our forecast reflects a further improvement in regional housing data tracking closed homes sales. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. 06:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a moderated conversation with Mervyn King at an event hosted by New York University’s Stern School of Business. Audience Q&A is expected. Wednesday, November 22 : 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 18 (GS 240k, consensus 240k, last 249k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 11 (consensus 1,879k, last 1,860k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined 9k to 240k in the week ended November 18 after rising to a six-week high in the previous week. Our forecast reflects a likely pullback in California and New York from elevated levels, partially offset by a further rise in Puerto Rico tied to the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – fell sharply in the previous week, and are trending lower. 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, October preliminary (GS -1.0%, consensus +0.4%, last +2.0%); Durable goods orders, ex-transportation, October preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, October preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.6%, last +1.7%); Core capital goods shipments, October preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.9%): We expect durable goods orders to pull back 1.0% in the October report (mom sa), reflecting a drop in commercial aircraft orders and a moderate increase in core measures. Industrial production of business equipment rose a firm 0.5% in the month, and broader manufacturing trends remain solid on net, despite some modest deterioration in manufacturing surveys November-to-date. Accordingly, we forecast a 0.3% increase in both orders and shipments of core capital goods, and we estimate a 0.5% rise in durable goods orders ex-transportation. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November final (GS 98.3, consensus 98.0, last 97.8): We expect a modest rebound in the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November (+0.5pt to 98.3), reflecting sequential improvement in higher frequency consumer surveys. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations remained stable at 2.5% in the preliminary reading, near the middle of its 12-month range. 02:00 PM Minutes from the October 31- November 1 FOMC meeting: The November FOMC meeting upgraded the growth assessment to “solid” for the first time since January 2015, but it did add that core inflation “remained soft”. In the minutes, we will look for further discussion of the growth and inflation data. Thursday, November 23 Thanksgiving holiday. NYSE closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also close. Friday, November 24 NYSE will close early at 1:00 PM. SIFMA recommends an early 2:00 PM close to bond markets. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, November preliminary (consensus 55.0, last 54.6) 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, November preliminary (consensus 55.4, last 55.3) Source: BofA, DB, Goldman
The key economic report this week is October existing home sales.Happy Thanksgiving!----- Monday, Nov 20th -----No economic releases scheduled.----- Tuesday, Nov 21st -----8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.40 million SAAR, up from 5.39 million in August.The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 5.60 million SAAR for October.6:00 PM ET: Panel Discussion with Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Moderated discussion with Mervyn King, At the New York University Stern School of Business, New York, New York----- Wednesday, Nov 22nd -----7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 249 thousand the previous week.8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in durable goods orders.10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for November). The consensus is for a reading of 97.9, up from the preliminary reading 97.8.2:00 PM: FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 31- November 1, 2017----- Thursday, Nov 23rd -----All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.----- Friday, Nov 24th -----The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.
What really caused the financial crisis - mainly macro Leprechaun Economics and Neo-Lafferism - Paul Krugman Leprechaun Economics, With Numbers - Paul Krugman The Darker Side of Peer-to-Peer Lending - Tim Taylor Central Banks in the Dock - Barry Eichengreen...
Дональд Трамп любит напоминать, что во время его президентства фондовый рынок достиг невиданных ранее высот. Это своеобразный показатель для гордости, и он не силах в полной степени отразить опасения.
Print section Print Rubric: Rates are due to rise. The economy may be more vulnerable than it seems Print Headline: What goes down… Print Fly Title: Interest rates UK Only Article: standard article Issue: A tsar is born Fly Title: What goes down… Main image: 20171028_BRP003_3.jpg IN A meeting room on a cold autumn day, the governor of the Bank of England settled into a witness chair to give evidence to a group of MPs. Worries were mounting about the economy. GDP growth was slowing and households were highly indebted. Nonetheless the Bank of England began raising interest rates. The governor told everyone to relax. Concerns about a “Christmas debt crisis” caused by higher rates were overblown, he said: “People have exaggerated the vulnerability of the economy to likely changes in policy.” That was in 2003, when Mervyn King was the bank’s governor. For the ...
Gold Standard Resulted In “Fewer Catastrophes” – FT - "Going off gold did the opposite of what many people think" - FT Alphaville- "Surprising" findings show benefits of Gold Standard- Study by former Obama advisor in 1999 and speech by Bank of England economist in 2017 make case for gold- UK economy was 'much less prone to extremes' under than the gold standard - research shows- 'Gold standard seems to have produced fewer catastrophes for Britain' - data shows - FT still wary of gold standard arguing 'stability can be overrated and growth is worth having'- Finding is not surprising and joins a wealth of evidence and research that shows gold's importance as money, a store of value and safe haven asset 300 years ago last week on the 21st September, 1717 Sir Isaac Newton, Master of the Royal Mint of Great Britain, accidentally invented the gold standard. Last month it was the 46th anniversary of President Nixon ending the gold standard. Since then the world has existed on a system of fiat paper and digital currency. It works so badly that it has lead to the global financial crisis, unending debt issues and a dramatic devaluation in sovereign currencies. Despite this, much of the media and central banking system remain supporters of the current financial and monetary status quo. They are so convinced that the time before fiat money was a disaster that anyone who suggests otherwise is labelled a gold-bug and told to move along. Last week, there was a glimmer of light when the Financial Times' Matthew C. Klein uncovered some 18-year old research into the gold standard and a recent speech by a Bank of England economist. Mr Klein although a young man has quite an impressive journalistic c.v. He writes for FT Alphaville and Bloomberg View about the economy and financial markets. He previously wrote for the Economist magazine and before that, Klein was a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), where he spent more than two years studying the history of the Federal Reserve and the intellectual history of monetary economics. Going off gold did the opposite of what many people think Klein writing in FT Alphaville draws on research from former economics advisor to President Obama, Christina Romer: Imagine you can choose between living in two kinds of societies: Dynamic world prone to wild swings and big crashes, but ultimately more growth in the long run Safe and stable world with greater consistency, less volatility, and much lower risk of catastrophe You might think that Americans and Europeans effectively decided to move from option 1 to option 2 between the late 19th and mid-20th centuries. Depending on your politics, you might attribute this to the stultification of modernity, or the triumph of the enlightened welfare state. Regardless, you would be wrong. The growth of government as a service provider and guarantor of financial security — backed by fiat money — has actually coincided with faster trend growth and greatervariance around that trend line. Moreover, the likelihood of particularly bad events has increased since the escape from the “golden fetters”. Klein refers to this and subsequent information from Romer as 'surprising findings'. They are not likely suprising to Klein but would be too many FT readers given its generally negative stance towards gold in recent years. The gold standard: Reduced volatility Klein reports that in 1999, Romer made some interesting findings regarding the stability and volatility of various business cycles in the 20h century. The findings initially suggest results that would make modern bankers rest on their laurels in terms of how they manage things today, but dig deeper and things don't look so straight forward. He reports that Romer concluded: that business cycles had roughly the same amplitude both before WWI and after WWII. Volatility was slightly lower in the modern period: Credit: FT, Romer But this was entirely attributable to the unusual calm of 1985-1997: Credit: FT, Romer Given what’s happened since then, the pre-WWI period might look more stable than the era of the “countercylical” Federal Reserve. Romer measured the severity of a downturn by looking at how far industrial production fell from its peak and how long it took to return to its old level. Using her method, the financial crisis was about as painful as the depression of 1920 and the contraction of 1937 — and about 2.5 times as bad as any post-WWII downturn. Bank of England's economist makes case for gold Gertjan Vlieghe, an economist and former economic assistant to Lord Mervyn King at the Bank of England, gave a speech last week entitled 'Real Interest Rates and Risk'. The speech presented research on and linked the history of interest rates, economic volatility, and stock market returns. As Klein points out in the FT the most important part of the speech is most likely to the be most underreported. Vlieghe's research finds that whilst the UK economy off the gold standard was better at allocating resources, the dangers it brought to the financial system made it "more fragile" and "lead to a financial crisis". Vlieghe at the Bank of England says: I suspect the increase in the importance of private sector debt and financial intermediation plays an important role, which in turn was facilitated by moving off the gold standard. An economy where debt and financial intermediation play a more important role can allocate resources more efficiently and achieve a higher growth rate, but also becomes more fragile. Small set-backs can have amplified downside effects and even lead to a financial crisis Klein draws our attention to an interesting chart presented as part of Vlieghe's speech. Credit: FT, Vlieghe Klein explains: The table, based on nearly three centuries of UK data, shows that the economy grew much less (in per person terms) under the gold standard than in the period of fiat money, but was also much less prone to extremes. The distribution of growth performance during the gold standard era was much more tightly concentrated around the average than the distribution in the epoch of fiat money. The comparison is even more stark when comparing average consumption, which is the best single measure of living standards. (That’s what the kurtosis numbers show.) Credit: FT, Vlieghe Klein clearly recognises that this shows the gold standard for what it is: a monetary system which brings far fewer disasters to an economy than one easily manipulated by central bankers and governments. This, says Klein, requires some serious consideration. the gold standard seems to have produced fewer catastrophes for Britain. There is no negative (or positive) skew in the distribution, unlike in the modern period, which has been blighted by several profoundly unpleasant downturns. ...the standard arguments in favour of the flexible and “counter-cyclical” state we have today, need serious revision. Very little desire for serious revision Throughout history, the majority of fiat currencies have met a miserable end, succumbing to hyperinflation after just a few decades. So far the current global fiat monetary system has survived just over 45 years. Few can seriously look at it and argue that it is healthy. It is increasingly unstable and is in terminal decline. It is not unfathomable to expect it to fail in the coming financial crisis. Unfortunately bankers and governments have not woken up to this thought yet. Ignorance is apparently bliss when it comes to believing a decade of money printing can be unwound without serious consequence. Whilst it is refreshing to see the Financial Times take a positive look at the gold standard, it is unfortunate that they have failed to recognise this simple fact from looking at monetary history and at the wealth of research out there which makes very similar arguments. One of the world's most famous bankers, Alan Greenspan, recognised the destructive nature of the fiat system: ‘In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value ...’ (Greenspan, 1967) In a study which used data from 15 countries from as early as 1820 to as late as 1994, Rolnick and Weber (1997) found ‘money growth and inflation are higher’ under fiat standards than those seen in gold and silver standards. They found during the fiat standard the average inflation rate was 9.17% per year compared to 1.75% per-cent found in gold standards. The result of the FT's approach is their readers (you, I, central bankers, finance ministers) are easily swayed into believing that a system of debt, volatility, high returns and high risk is preferable to the gold standard. We come to believe it is 'the norm'. But a system which repeatedly fails cannot be 'the norm.' Surely the one that we ultimately return to after each failure should be 'the norm'? Did we learn anything about money? Following the financial crisis, a 2009 UN report concluded that the disaster was not a result of failures, instead the result of bad political choices: ‘...our multiple crises are not the result of a failure or failures of the system. Rather, the system itself – its organization and principles, and its distorted and flawed institutional mechanisms – is the cause of many these failures... our global economy is but one of many possible economies, and, unlike the laws of physics, we have a political choice to determine when, where, and to what degree the so- called laws of economic behaviour should be allowed to hold sway.’ Luckily gold’s role as a store of value and important monetary asset is being increasingly appreciated. This is happening both on the part of governments and individuals alike. Major holders and buyers of gold include the world's largest central banks, the largest global banks, the largest insurance companies in the world, the largest hedge funds in the world, the largest pension funds in the world and of course many wealthy and prudent investors. The idea of returning gold to the monetary system is clearly not a crazy one - it is already slowly happening and the Chinese look set to take the lead in this regard. The mainstream media should not be surprised by this. After all, the evidence shows gold's ability to protect wealth, reduce volatility and protect us from the policies of central banks and increasingly populist governments. Klein's article can be read in full here Going off gold did the opposite of what many people think - FT Alphaville News and Commentary Gold rises from 1-mth lows; palladium at discount to platinum (Reuters.com) Ex-UBS metals trader indicted over alleged metals price rigging (Reuters.com) Bonds Slide as Dollar Climbs on Tax Plan, Economy (Bloomberg.com) Trump proposal slashes taxes on businesses, the rich amid deficit worries (Reuters.com) Billionaire Paulson Targets CEOs Of Poorly Performing Gold Miners (Bloomberg.com) Source: City AM London house prices to fall this year and next on Brexit - Experts (CityAM.com) This Is Not A Time To Buy Anything - Zell Warns Retail Real Estate Market Is A "Falling Knife" (ZeroHedge.com) A Real Republic of Opportunity would Tax Land and Property to the Hilt (DavidMCWilliams.ie) You're Likely A Lot Less Prepared For Crisis Than You Realize (PeakProsperity.com) Jim Rogers on why you should get “less passive” today (StansBerryChurcHouse.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 28 Sep: USD 1,284.30, GBP 961.04 & EUR 1,091.40 per ounce27 Sep: USD 1,291.30, GBP 963.83 & EUR 1,099.54 per ounce26 Sep: USD 1,306.90, GBP 969.59 & EUR 1,105.38 per ounce25 Sep: USD 1,295.50, GBP 957.89 & EUR 1,089.26 per ounce22 Sep: USD 1,297.00, GBP 956.15 & EUR 1,082.09 per ounce21 Sep: USD 1,297.35, GBP 960.56 & EUR 1,089.00 per ounce20 Sep: USD 1,314.90, GBP 970.53 & EUR 1,094.79 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 28 Sep: USD 16.82, GBP 12.53 & EUR 14.28 per ounce27 Sep: USD 16.89, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.38 per ounce26 Sep: USD 17.01, GBP 12.67 & EUR 14.43 per ounce25 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.57 & EUR 14.27 per ounce22 Sep: USD 16.97, GBP 12.52 & EUR 14.18 per ounce21 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.24 per ounce20 Sep: USD 17.38, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.48 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Financial Advice From Man Who Made $1+ Billion in 1929 – Importance Of Being Patient and “Sitting”- “Gold prices to reach $1,400 before the end of the year” – GoldCore- Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder- Bitcoin “Is A Bubble” but Gold Is Money Says World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Manager- Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms- Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”- “This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From” – Deutsche Bank- Global Debt Bubble Understated By $13 Trillion Warn BIS- Bitcoin Price Falls 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials- Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over- Oil Rich Venezuela Stops Accepting Dollars- Massive Equifax Hack Shows Cyber Risk to Deposits and Investments Today- British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
Sep.20 -- Former Bank of England Governor Mervyn King and Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive officer at WPP Plc, discuss the Brexit endgame and how U.K. businesses are being impacted by negotiations. They speak with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
FTSE 100 snaps losing streak as sterling slips on Mark Carney's warning of gradual and limited interest rate rises
Admiraloutperformed the rebounding FTSE 100 after Deutsche Bank judged that the insurer will be one of the sector’s big winners from the Government proposal to backtrack on its much derided changes to the Ogden discount rate, which punctured the tyres of the sector earlier this year. Admiral and Direct Line were the clear beneficiaries from the plans to reverse changes to the personal injury discount rate, which slashed earnings for UK insurers, Deutsche argued. The motor insurance sector has undergone yet another dramatic shift in its dynamic after the Government said earlier this month that it plans to change the Ogden rate from -0.75p to between 0pc and 1pc and car insurance prices are now likely to remain flat, it told clients The more cautious booked position taken by Admiral was a sensible choice and now that the Ogden rate issue is settling the company can improve profitability from 2018 onwards, its analyst Wajahat Rizvi argued. Admiral, which was also upgraded to “hold” by the broker, climbed 39p to £18.24 while Direct Line nudged up 2.5p to 374p, their shares also benefitting from speculation that rival esure’s biggest shareholder is on the hunt for a buyer. Chatter that a merger could provide Esure founder Sir Peter Wood his ticket out of the FTSE 250 firm sent the insurer to the top of the mid-cap index, its shares gaining 15.9p to 278.5p. Elsewhere, huge blue-chip engineers dominated the top spots on the blue-chip index with BAE Systems advancing 23.5p to 619.5p to the top of the index after securing a new order for its Typhoon jets from Qatar and GKN climbing 8.8p to 347.6p on an analyst note from Exane BNP Paribas saying that conditions are now ripe for the long-awaited separation of its automobile and aerospace divisons. The pound’s decelerating momentum on the currency markets gave the FTSE 100 a respite, the blue-chip index rebounding from its four-month low to rise 37.81 points to 7,253.28. The index was given a late boost by Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s speech at the IMF in Washington pulling down the pound by warning of a limited and gradual pace to interest rates rises. Finally on the junior market, Velocys jumped 2.6p to 34.5p after announcing a partnership with British Airways to prepare a business case to build a plant to convert household waste into jet fuel, using the AIM-listed firm’s gas-to-liquids technology. Numis analyst James Hubbard noted that recent UK jet fuel credit changes have opened the door to the innovation, adding that the renewable jet fuel sector had a “promising future”. The Government confirmed last week that jet fuel will now be eligible for credits under the changes and a final investment decision on the project is due in 2019. 6:17PM Markets wrap: Pound's retreat on Carney speech helps FTSE 100 rebound Mark Carney's speech sent the pound sliding on the currency markets The FTSE 100 has rebounded from a four-month low after the pound's momentum on the currency markets was brought to a halt by a more cautious speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney warning of a gradual and limited pace to interest rate rises. Dropping off from its highest post-EU referendum level against the dollar, the pound retreated 0.7pc to back below $1.35 as Mr Carney struck a more cautious tone on the UK's outlook and warned yet again on the effects of Brexit. Any cynics saying that Mr Carney was using hawkish rhetoric to push up the pound without the need to use the blunter tools at his disposal will be quietened by the governor's negative effect on the currency and the FTSE 100 strengthened to record a 0.5pc following the speech. Josh Mahony said this on the action on stock markets: "European markets are starting the week in optimistic fashion, as market sentiment continues to benefit from the now regular setting of record highs in US markets coupled with a shift away from threatening and escalating rhetoric over North Korea. "US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s desire to find a “peaceful solution” to the ongoing dispute with Kim Jong-Un has provided markets with a significant degree of confidence. Both the Dow and S&P500 have hit fresh highs as the drop in the dollar continues to benefit exporting firms." 4:40PM Carney warns that interest rates will rise at a gradual and limited pace An "unreliable boyfriend" rarely admits that they are! https://t.co/G9TcxLG0yX#Carneyhttps://t.co/VRrBJSO70D— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) September 18, 2017 BBG on Carney: comments that hikes will be limited and gradual -- in other words, not the start of a rapid tightening cycle $GBP— Yogi Chan (@Yogi_Chan) September 18, 2017 Interest rates will "rise a limited extent at what can be expected to be a gradual pace, settling at levels significantly below those seen pre-crisis", Mark Carney has said in his appearance at the IMF this afternoon. It's looking like those concerns that Mr Carney was using hawkish rhetoric to bluff the markets to lift the pound were unfounded. The governor's rhetoric today has done the currency no favours. The speech is littered with anti-Brexit rhetoric. Here's a few lines from the speech on the issue: "The first is the obvious disinflationary impact of Brexit given that the EU takes 44% of UK exports. Whatever is negotiated, in terms of both the final arrangements and the transition to them, the most important influence on demand in the short run will be the degree of access to the single market since the UK runs a 1.5% trade surplus in services and a 5% trade deficit in goods." 4:18PM Pound dips despite Carney reiterating tightening plans Mark Carney delivering Camdessus Lecture at IMF. In audience, Stan Fischer, Ann Kruger, John Lipsky et al. pic.twitter.com/4giV2GjErR— Alessandro Leipold (@ALeipold) September 18, 2017 What about Carney's comments are particularly bearish? Is his vow of 'gradual' surprising? His well-established concerns around Brexit?— John Kicklighter (@JohnKicklighter) September 18, 2017 The text from Mark Carney's speeech at the IMF has just been released and the currency markets have given it a thumbs down. Mr Carney said that monetary policy has to move in order to stand still in the current environment and added that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus is likely to be appropriate over the coming months, using almost identical phrasing to what the Bank of England used last Thursday. He reiterated that there are "considerable risks" to the UK outlook and that caution has sent the pound sliding 0.4pc against the dollar back towards $1.35. Here's the relevant part of the text: "There remain considerable risks to the UK outlook, which include the response of households, businesses and financial markets to developments related to the process of EU withdrawal. The MPC will respond to these developments as they occur insofar as they affect the behaviour of households and businesses, and the outlook for inflation." He also emphasises that the UK growth outlook is sluggish compared to our G7 peers. He said: "The balance of these effects has lead overall UK growth to slow in the first half of 2017, even as growth in the rest of the G7 was picking up, and UK growth looks set to remain weaker than the G7 average until mid- 2018. "The UK has experienced underperformance only twice in the past three decades: once in the depths of the financial crisis and once following the collapse of the Lawson Boom of the late 1980s." 3:44PM US indices hitting highs pulls up European stocks; pound mixed ahead of Carney speech Mark Carney could move sterling in his speech at the top of the hour European stocks have been supported this afternoon by the bright start across the Atlantic, according to Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell. He said on this afternoon's action: "A record-breaking open from the Dow Jones kept the European indices feeling positive this Monday afternoon. "The Dow only needed to rise 0.3% after the bell to hit a new 22300-plus high; the S&P 500 followed suit, climbing above 2500 for the first time in its history. The recent surge from the US indices has lined up with the dollar’s September decline against the pound, where it has shed nearly 5% in the last 18 days. "Over in Europe the US open allowed the FTSE to widen its gains once again. The UK index is now up half a percent, putting some distance between it and its sub-7200 low last Friday." Just a reminder that we'll be bringing you the latest updates from Mark Carney's IMF speech at 4pm. Ahead of the appearance, the pound is putting in a patchy performance, nudging down against both the dollar and euro but moving higher against the currency markets' laggard today, the Japanese yen. 3:13PM Bell Pottinger scandal widens as Rentokil director who introduced the PR firm to the Guptas steps down Bell Pottinger's London office The scandal surrounding public relations firm Bell Pottinger has deepened as the man who introduced the company to the billionaire Gupta family, Chris Geoghegan, has stepped down from his role at Rentokil. Mr Geoghegan, BAE Systems' former chief operating officer, reportedly earned a six-figure sum for brokering the controversial deal between Bell Pottinger and the Guptas, which ultimately led to the firm’s administration last week. Cleaning and hygiene firm Rentokil has announced that Mr Geoghegan will be stepping down with immediate effect. As a result, he also steps down as chairman of the firm’s remuneration committee and senior independent director. He had been on the board for just over a year, having been joint chief operating officer at BAE Systems from 2002 to 2007. Read Rhiannon Bury's full report here 2:48PM Dow Jones on course for another record close The Dow Jones is on course for another record close US stocks have nudged up early on and the Dow Jones is on course for another record close with the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision now in the sights of investors. ING's chief international economist James Knightley believes that that the markets are underestimating the chance of a fasted paced hiking cycle and that Wednesday's meeting may not be the non-event some believe it will be. He added that investors should give more credence to the Fed's forecasts on interest rates: "With just one hike priced in by the end of 2018, the market's view on interest rates is still worlds apart from the Fed's June projections, which pencilled in 100bp of rate hikes over the next 18 months. "Some market scepticism is understandable. The Fed has signalled higher interest rates on numerous occasions over the past couple of years, only to then subsequently not follow through with them. But also with several measures of inflation well below 2%, there is a sense that there is little need for tighter policy. "This latter point, in particular, may see some officials becoming less aggressive on their expectations for the path of interest rates. As such, we would not be surprised to see the dot diagram move closer to our forecast of three rate hikes rather than the four previously indicated." Given the rollercoaster the ECB and Bank of England has given the markets in the last few weeks, it would be naive to rule out any other shocks from the central banking top tier one would think. 2:14PM Britain braces for higher energy prices this winter Winter electricity in the UK market is already 16pc higher than it was at this time last year Energy bills in the UK could be set to rise this winter after the cost of power jumped well above last year's prices. The wholesale cost of winter electricity in the UK market is on average 16pc, or around £7 per megawatt-hour, higher than it was this time last year. The price rises could spell trouble for British bill payers who faced a flurry of tariff hikes over the spring following last winter’s volatile energy trading. Last year market prices surged higher due to safety concerns across almost a fifth of EDF’s 58-strong French nuclear reactor fleet. This year, energy prices are climbing due to ongoing concerns around France’s nuclear plants as well as Germany’s reliance on power from coal, which is trading 50pc higher than last year. Read Jillian Ambrose's full report here 1:59PM Mark Carney speech preview Former BoE governor Mervyn King said that central bankers can use tricks and bluffs to manipulate markets Interest rate forecast revisions have been flooding in since the Bank of England surprised the markets last Thursday by taking a hawkish turn but some have raised doubts that the latest rhetoric coming out of the central bank is little more than monetary policy dark arts. The theory goes that the MPC's hawkish rhetoric is designed to lift the pound, which will in turn bring down inflation without having to resort to the blunter tools at the central bank's disposal. Can Mark Carney reassure any doubters this afternoon in his speech at the IMF? The markets have been here twice before with Mr Carney and the 'Maradona theory', the idea proposed by former governor Mervyn King that the markets can be manipulated by central bankers in the same way that Maradona could beat five defender by walking in a straight line through shoulder shifts and bluffs, could be wearing a little thin if rates aren't raised before the end of the year. Investec's Philip Shaw, who like HSBC this morning and many others, has revised his forecasts since the latest twist believes the BoE is serious this time, however. He said: "The MPC’s latest prognosis has not come out of the blue. Indeed its concerns over tight labour markets and the prospects for inflationary pay increases have been evident since the spring. Accordingly unless the UK is hit by a negative demand shock over the next six weeks, we view the prospect of a 25bp increase in the Bank rate to 0.50% in November as our new baseline case. 1:20PM Study engineering at university if you want to become a billionaire, report suggests Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and the second richest person in the world, studied engineering at university Students who study engineering or business at university are more likely than their peers to become billionaires, a new study suggests. Those who have already entered the job market and are either in a sales career or stock trader role are also among the most likely to become part of the world's richest people club. The findings are based on a study by the recruitment agency Aaron Wallis, which looked into the richest 100 people in the world to see if there was any correlation between their first careers and how wealthy they became. It found that the most common first job among the top billionaires – who started in an organisation that wasn't their own, as opposed to entrepreneurs who started their own company or those employed in a family business – was that of a salesperson. Read Sophie Christie's full report here 12:55PM Lunchtime update: Pound comes off highs ahead of Carney speech Bank of England governor Mark Carney is due to speak at the IMF at 4pm later today The FTSE 100 has snapped its losing streak and rebounded back into positive territory this morning as the pound's rally on currency markets cools. Ahead of Bank of England governor Mark Carney's speech at the IMF this afternoon, sterling has dipped slightly, coming off the highs it hit at the end of last week as hopes of an interest rate hike before the end of the year were reignited by the central bank. A dearth of economics and corporate news means London is devoid of any big stock movements this morning. Engineer GKN has jumped 3.2pc to the top of the FTSE 100 on a bullish broker note while defence specialist BAE Systems securing the sale of 24 Typhoon jets to Qatar has lifted it 2.9pc. At the other end, tobacco stocks are reacting negatively to the FDA changes to its e-cigarette requirements, which broke as trading was closing in Europe on Friday, while gold producers Fresnillo and Randgold Resources trail the blue-chip index as the precious metal's price continues to retreat. It could be the calm before the storm, however. Attention on the markets is beginning to shift to the US Federal Reserve's key policy decision on Wednesday with investors itching for clues over the US's own interest rate hiking plans. Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell gave this preview of the US session: "Looking to this afternoon, and while there’s no data on the cards it still could be a memorable US session. Even something as meagre as a 0.2% is enough for the Dow Jones to hit a fresh high, with the index on track to open above 22300 for the first time in its history. "Given it wasn’t too long ago that it was fretting about North Korea, as well as Donald Trump’s (in)ability to deliver on his tax and infrastructure promises – issues that are still very much on the table – it’s remarkable that the Dow has risen so aggressively in the past week or so." 12:20PM Interserve hires finance director days after devastating profit warning Interserve has recently won a five-year contract to provide spectator seating for the Edinburgh Military Tattoo Support services group Interserve has appointed a new finance director just days after it issued a crippling profit warning. Mark Whiteling will join the company at the beginning of next month, having recently held a number of non-executive roles at firms including Hogg Robinson and Connect Group. Shares in Interserve rallied during Monday morning’s trading on the back of the news, climbing as much as 18.71pc to 96.75p. Mr Whiteling had previously held senior roles at technology firm Premier Farnell. He was also finance director of marketing business Communisis and group finance director of logistics company Tibbett and Britten. Read Rhiannon Bury's full report here Interserve 12:09PM Yen falls as Japanese PM considers calling a snap election Shinzo Abe could call a general election to take advantage of a weaker opposition Another little interesting side-note on the forex markets is the Japanese yen, which has plunged into the red against all the leading currencies ahead of the Bank of Japan's own decision on monetary policy on Thursday. The currency is under pressure after weekend reports that the country's prime minister Shinzo Abe is considering to do a "Theresa May" and call a snap election to take advantage of a weakened opposition. If Mrs May did give the Japanese PM any sage advice on snap elections during her recent state visit, he's obviously ignored it. 12:00PM Sterling comes off highs; attention begins to shift towards Fed meeting All eyes will be on Fed chair Janet Yellen at her press conference on Wednesday evening Sterling has slipped slightly on the currency markets this morning as it comes off the highs it hit on Friday following dovish Bank of England policymaker Gertjan Vlieghe's speech backing the Monetary Policy Committee's plan to hike interest rates to curb inflation if current economic trends continue. The pound could be in for another bumpy ride this week against the dollar with Mark Carney due to speak later today and the US Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday to dictate the dollar's performance on the currency markets later in the week. The Fed is expected to announce that it will begin to unwind its huge $4.5tn balance sheet but investors will be equally as interested in the central bank's thoughts on sluggish inflation, which is weighing on the chance of an interest rate hike across the Atlantic before the end of the year. 11:31AM Petra Diamonds misses targets as Tanzanian worries worsen Petra recently suspended operations at its mine in Tanzania as the East African country looks to take more control of its mining sector Shares in Petra Diamonds have slumped 7pc after the FTSE 250 miner reported a disappointing set of results and warned that legal challenges in Tanzania could mean it breaches its debt covenants once again. The stock slid to 77.50p in early trade after Petra warned that failure to resolve a dispute with the Tanzanian government over diamond exports may result in it breaching two of its covenant measures. The company said it would “monitor the situation very closely and take decisive action if required”. Petra had already warned in June that it was in talks with its lenders after suffering a six-month delay at one of its major projects, resulting in it missing production guidance for the year. Read Jon Yeomans' full report here Petra Diamonds 11:23AM HSBC reverses position on sterling; revises 2017 forecast from $1.20 to $1.35 against the dollar In terms of HSBC and currency forecasts it is a case of "we were wrong again" https://t.co/6Vs7NIETSh— Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) September 18, 2017 "We were very wrong." That's how HSBC's forex team started this morning's note on sterling to clients, its tail between the legs as the currency smashed the bank's forecast. Its strategist David Bloom said that the Bank of England's "unexpected hunger" to join the ECB and Federal Reserve in beginning to tighten monetary policy had lifted sterling above its estimates, adding that the pound has "happily ignored the political intrigue of Brexit". After forecasting the currency to plunge to $1.20 against the dollar by the end of the year, it now believes that it will remain around its current level of $1.35. The bank does, however, believe that the pound is "likely to weaken in 2018 as the market questions the merit of rate hikes and politics belatedly gets a grip on it". 10:44AM Eurozone inflation takes small step in the right direction Euro area annual inflation confirmed at 1.5% in August 2017 (July 1.3%) #Eurostathttps://t.co/rcCZSYalGkpic.twitter.com/jslpebQ5Nm— EU_Eurostat (@EU_Eurostat) September 18, 2017 Eurozone CPI of +1.5% y/y hardly the hawkish report the ECB needs to "taper", but up small sequentially— Keith McCullough (@KeithMcCullough) September 18, 2017 Eurozone inflation picked up to 1.5pc in August, Eurostat has confirmed this morning, reversing the downward trend concerning officials at the European Central Bank. The ECB has been reluctant to signal a shift in monetary policy until inflation starts to rise back towards its 2pc target. After three months of decline or stagnation, the headline figure has finally started to rise again, jumping 0.2 percentage points in the latest estimate. Rising prices for transport fuel and accommodation services lifted the headline figure most while Ireland and Greece weighed heaviest on figures in the currency bloc. The headline rate could begin to fall again in the coming quarters, however, according to Pantheon Macro eurozone economist Claus Vistesen. He argued: "The inflation data in the Eurozone will be driven by two separate stories in the next three-to-six months. The headline likely will fall significantly as base effects push energy inflation lower. The ECB published an estimate earlier today to suggest that headline inflation could fall to 0.9% in the first quarter of 2018. That sounds a little too drastic to us, but we agree with the direction. "If this forecast is right—and it will be unless oil prices soar—it will create an odd backdrop for the expectations of tighter monetary policy. Core inflation, however, likely will rise slightly providing cover for the ECB to reduce the pace of QE. In particular, we think non-energy goods inflation will increase in Q4 as a lagged response to higher PPI inflation. By contrast, risks are then tilted to the downside in Q1. Services inflation also should edge higher, albeit less so. We look for core inflation in France and Italy to deliver the main upside surprises." 10:24AM Mark Carney speech could help kick-start the pound's momentum once again Arch dove Gertjan Vlieghe backing a rise last Friday was seen as an important step towards the Bank of England hiking interest rates Sterling's momentum on the forex markets has slowed to a stop this morning but a speech from Bank of England governor Mark Carney this afternoon could kick-start the currency's recent rally once again. The pound was lifted to its highest post-EU referendum level against the dollar on Friday after a speech from Gertjan Vlieghe, who is considered the most dovish member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, supported raising interest rates if current economic trends continue. The Bank of England's statement on Thursday alongside its decision to hold rates at 0.25pc said that a majority of the central bank's policymakers backed hiking rates to curb inflation in the coming months and the backing of an arch dove like Mr Vlieghe was seen as an important step towards the MPC voting for a rise. Follow Monday’s #CamdessusLecture with @BankofEngland Governor Mark Carney and @Lagarde here: https://t.co/SREKlXVLr4pic.twitter.com/gOAXtDeXTN— IMF (@IMFNews) September 15, 2017 This morning's gains on the FTSE 100 could be short-lived if Mark Carney's speech cements the MPC's position, according to IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp. He said: "While sterling’s weakness is giving it some much-needed respite, the gains could well prove fleeting if Mark Carney delivers further remarks this afternoon that follow up on last week’s hawkish turn. "Having seen such heavy losses at the end of last week there were bound to be plenty of candidates for dip buying on the index, and with UK stocks still broadly out of favour among institutions this rally could easily have legs, especially with Q4’s seasonality just weeks away. However, it will all depend on Mark Carney today." 9:47AM House prices continue to be dragged down by London London continued to drag down the national average London houses continued to plunge in value in September, dragging down the national average a further 1.2pc in September, fresh data from Rightmove has revealed today. Only the North East, Yorkshire and the East Midlands saw an increase in prices while London prices fell by 2.9pc compared to the previous month. Rightmove said that the number of sales agreed was higher than a year ago, showing that demand remains strong. House prices reaching their limit after rising for the last six years will be "unavoidable", said Rightmove director Miles Shipside. However, he did manage to pick out this silver lining in today's figures: "Interest rates cannot realistically drop any further to help buyer affordability, but the potentially good news for buyers’ finances, which have been under attack for years, is that there is some relief from the wage-rise cavalry. "Average wage rises are now running at nearly double the annual rate of property price rises, and the longer any meaningful differential is maintained then the greater the improvement in buyer affordability." 9:30AM Hiscox braces for £110m of Hurricane Harvey claims Chief executive Bronek Masojada said that the industry can cope with the costs from the two hurricanes Hiscox said the devastation wreaked by Hurricane Harvey on the United States will cost the insurer $150m (£110m) in claims. The FTSE 250 firm said the estimate was within the modelled range for a disaster of that scale and was based on an insured market loss of $25bn (£18bn). It came as the company warned that "natural catastrophes" would run up a big bill for the insurance industry this year, but assured that the sector would be able to cope. Alongside the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, America is also grappling with the impact of Hurricane Irma, which made a devastating sweep through the Caribbean before slamming into Florida. Read the full report here 9:21AM Ryanair dives after 'messing up' pilot holidays Ryanair has plunged this morning after announcing the cancellations The fall-out from Ryanair cancelling 40-50 flights every day for the next six weeks after it bungled its pilots' holiday schedule has sent its shares diving 3.5pc this morning. The company's marketing officer Kenny Jacobs said that the airline had "messed up" their pilots' holiday schedule but added that less than 2pc of its flights will be cancelled. Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor said that the error will be "truly damaging" for the company. She commented: "Ryanair is notorious for not caring about what sort of headlines they get, working on the basis that all publicity is good publicity - but not this time. Previously, the carrier was happy to suggest that you get what you pay for and despite negative press lots of flyers embraced the fact that they knew the score and were happy to fly without the frills. "However, the current situation is truly damaging, with flyers left high and dry with last minute cancellations or apprehensive that they might be affected. Is this a planning issue with Ryanair or is it a shortage of pilots? If the former, then it suggests some truly poor processes. If the latter, then we may see wages rise to fill the gaps. Either way, it’s not good news for Ryanair." 9:04AM Global stocks nudge up to fresh all-time high MSCI World Equity Index (USD) hits a record high pic.twitter.com/E3xRXvQ0Ax— Kit Lowe (@kit_lowe) September 18, 2017 The rally on European stock markets following a positive session in Asia has lifted the MSCI World Index to a fresh all-time high as investor sentiment continues to normalise and attention shifts to the US Federal Reserve's latest policy decision on Wednesday. Let's take a quick look at the big movers in London this morning. A quiet morning on the corporate front means engineer GKN and insurer Admiral being lifted by broker notes is enough to take them towards the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard. BAE Systems' rise on a Typhoon jet order from Qatar still leads the index early on, however, while HSBC has clawed back some of the ground it lost last week. Gold's retreat as risk appetite continues to return to normal has pulled precious metal producers Fresnillo and Randgold Resources to the bottom of the FTSE 100. After jumping to $1,347 per ounce on geopolitical worries two weeks ago the price has retreated back down to $1,315 with the markets giving a muted response to the latest escalation on the Korean Peninsula. Spreadex analyst Connor Campbell commented on this morning's rebound: "Having been battered in the wake of last week’s sterling super surge, the FTSE is using a quiet Monday morning to claw back some of its losses. At one point last Friday the UK index hit 7195, its worst price since the end of April. Now it’s trying to push on to 7250, sitting a few points shy of that target after rising around half a percent. "As for the pound, it has had little reason to really move just yet, instead opening relatively flat against both the dollar and the euro. Not to worry though – that means cable is just below last week’s $1.36-crossing 1 year peak, while against the euro sterling is sitting pretty at a 2 month high." 8:27AM Agenda: FTSE 100 rebounds as sterling's momentum slows BAE Systems leads the blue-chip index early on The FTSE 100 has rebounded into positive territory this morning as sterling's dominance on the currency markets eases, pulling the index off the four-month low it plunged to on Friday as the pound jumped to its highest post-EU referendum level. BAE Systems is leading the rally early on after Qatar signed a letter of intent to buy 24 Typhoon jets from the defence specialist while engineering firm GKN is following shortly behind after being lifted by a broker note. Only a handful of stocks have retreated early on with Randgold Resources dropping furthest as gold begins the new week in the red. Markets start week in 'risk-on' mood. Asia stocks hit decade high, Safe haven assets plunge as CenBank hawkish shift appears to be underway. pic.twitter.com/XpKr43doNn— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 18, 2017 There's little of note on the economics calendar today after last week's action-packed diary. House prices continued to nudge down, retreating a further 1.2pc in August compared to the previous month, according to Rightmove's latest data. This morning, the pound has held onto the strong gains it made at the end of last week after the Bank of England's MPC gave its strongest hint yet that interest rates will rise this year. Against the dollar, sterling is in flat territory at $1.3575 while against the euro, it has edged up to €1.1374, a two-month high, ahead of final eurozone CPI figures due at 10am. Interim results: M. P. Evans Group, Secure Income Reit, Concurrent Technologies, Learning Technologies Group, Ergomed, Medica Group Full-year results: Bluefield Solar Income Fund, Green Reit, Finsbury Food Group, City of London Investment Group, Petra Diamonds Trading statement: Dairy Crest Group AGM: Ormonde Mining Economics: Rightmove HPI m/m (UK), NAHB Housing Market Index (US), Final CPI y/y (EU)
На графике ВВП Великобритании (картинка из свежайшей речи одного из лидеров Банка Англии, там другие есть). Красным показан докризисный тренд, а синим жизнь. Вчера все с напряжением ждали, объявят ли народу об уже ТРЕТЬЕЙ по счету рецессии, но бог миловал и объявили о небольшом росте в первом квартале. Почему нет роста в любимом россиянами Лондонграде и его окрестностях?Кругман, ДеЛонг и другие уверяют своих читателей, что это из-за бюджетной консолидации бюджетного аскетизма, как в России. Они видят на этой картинке ошибку в статье Рейнхарт-Рогофф 2010 года, и письмо о бюджетной дисциплине, которое в феврале 2010 года подписал Кеннет Рогофф вместе с другими экономистами. Статья и письмо подтолкнули правительство Камерона на ужасную экономическую политику и лишили британцев благосостояния, измеряемого разницей между красной революционной линией и синей, преступной. Чтобы убедиться, что красная линия является для Кругмана и ДеЛонга критерием успеха, желающие могут почитать свежую заметку ДеЛонга про США или поискать его и Кругмана многочисленные атаки на Великобританию, а про Латвию с Эстонией я лучше промолчу.Вопрос на засыпку про бюджетный аскетизм упирается в Великобританию по ряду причин. У страны своя валюта, которая, как постоянно повторяет Кругман и Ко. необходима для успеха. С начала кризиса фунт стерлингов подешевел процентов на 20-25, что, по мнению Кругмана, должно было привести с скачку экспорта. Инфляция была намного выше 2%, к чему тоже призывали Кругман и другие экономисты. Много чего было в Великобритании в кризисные годы. А роста не было и пока нет. Поэтому для Кругмана, ДеЛонга и их единомышленников главным виновником преступления должен быть бюджетный аскетизм. В Великобритании, по их мнению, нужен был значительный бюджетный стимул, достаточный для быстрого возвращения к красной черте. На всякий случай напомню сразу, что дефицит бюджета в Странглии на автомате сразу скакнул к 10-11% ВВП (картинка). Этого, по мнению борцов с бюджетным аскетизмом, было мало, надо было гораздо больше. По мнению Кругмана, инвесторы бы этого совсем не испугались, потому что никакой "Волшебницы доверие" нет (добавим от себя следствие: нет и "Волшебницы Недоверие"). Вот свежая заметка ДеЛонга, где он обвиняет Камерона и "правых" экономистов в попытке реализовать в Великобритании "стимилирующее сокращение" дефицита бюджета а ля Алесина.Как и в случае российских дебатов о замедлении роста, за более объективным мнением я обратился к уходящему руководителю центрального банка - Банка Англии - Мервину Кингу, коллеге Сергея Игнатьева. В своей январской речи Кинг подробно рассказывал о диагнозе, лечении и будущем экономики Великобритании. Речь советую почитать. В отличие от Банка России, британцы публикуют речи своих руководителей, чтобы каждый желающий не гадал, какие у них мысли, а мог прочитать речь и поглазеть на иллюстрации к ней и даже почитать указанную дополнительную литературу.Кинг сразу же напомнил слушателям об избыточном докризисном энтузиазме:Much of this reflects the inevitable correction of exuberance on the part of borrowers and lenders, the conditions for which were created by the failure to tackle the global imbalances that left most major countries with unsustainable exchange rates, unsustainable paths of consumption, saving and borrowing, and unsustainably low long-term real interest rates.Затем отметил три фактора, сдерживающих рост, некоторые из них внутренние, некоторые внешние. Не буду пересказывать, но среди них упомянуты цены на еду и энергию. Системный финансовый кризис привел к нарушениям в банковском секторе, толкнул банки к осторожности и затруднил доступ к кредиту, особенно для мелких и средних предприятий. Но среди причин анемичного роста у Кинга нет даже намека на излишний бюджетный аскетизм. Единственное упоминание о бюджетной политике во всей речи сводится к ограничениям в ее использовании из-за большого госдолга:In many countries, including the UK, fiscal policy is constrained by the size of government indebtedness, and monetary policy has come to be seen as the only game in town.Нет бюджетного стимулирования и среди нескольких рецептов лечения (помимо денежно-кредитной политики КуЕ). Рецепта три, включая укрепление банков, увеличение экономического потенциала за счет структурных реформ и (все еще надежда на) восстановление еврозоны и слабый фунт стерлингов/экспорт:What are those other policies? They come under three headings: restoring confidence in our banks, reforms to raise the future potential supply of our economy, and changes in the world economy and exchange rates.Этот диагноз, рецепты лечения и прогноз мы услышали от одного из сотен британских экономистов, которые в свое время в открытом письме возмутились преступным бюджетным аскетизмом Маргарет Тэтчер :). Кто-нибудь наверняка скажет мне, что старик Кинг кривит душой, что не хочет осложнять жизнь правительству Камерона. Но ведь он пожилой уже человек, ему нечего терять, кроме своего доброго имени. Не боится же он требовать значительного дополнительного увеличения акционерного капитала у всесильных банков, которые могли бы его подкармливать в старости. Неужели Кинг промолчал бы, если бы действительно верил во вред бюджетной дисциплины?Что такое ужасное делает правительство Великобритании, какой такой особый аскетизм в Лондонграде? Смотрим еще раз на сокращение дефицита, ожидаемое в разных странах за три года 2011-2013, и видим, что у британцев сокращение дефицита очень похоже на небольшое сокращение в других странах, как у Франции или Бельгии, и меньше, чем в США, не говоря уже о больных еврозоны Испании, Ирландии и Ко., которым Кругман, кстати, тоже раньше регулярно предлагал активнее стимулировать экономику дополнительными бюджетными расходами (?!).Можно допустить, что сейчас, когда инвесторы успокоились после испуга 2008-2011 гг., британцы могли бы сокращать дефицит чуть медленнее, как это может себе теперь легко позволить Эстония или Латвия. Сейчас, а не в 2010, когда инвесторы, включая Билла Гросса, буквально тряслись от страха. И американцы могли бы сейчас дать слабину. Но надо же быть реалистами. К красной линии они бы все равно долго не вернулись. И Кругман с ДеЛонгом все равно будут ругать всех и вся во всю силу своих легких. Никакого чрезмерного аскетизма в Великобритании нет, просто не нашли там вовремя сланцевый газ, банковский сектор там побольше и еврозона поближе. Разница между Великобританией и США еще и в том, что в Америке нет никаких бюджетных планов, а есть секвестр, знакомый нам по предкризисным 1990м. Там правит политический паралич. Планы же британцев известны заранее, и за выполнением планов уже давно следят специально обученные независимые люди в Офисе бюджетной ответственности, как и учил реалист Кеннет Рогофф.ДОП: Пока я кропал и выдергивал из интернета чужие мысли и картинки, появился пользительный пост zhu_s...Как я уже заметил в тексте, мы не можем ознакомиться с речью Сергея Игнатьева о причинах замедления роста российской экономики и посмотреть на познавательные картинки-иллюстрации к его увлекательному рассказу. Но у нас есть zhu_s, который думает и пишет на эту важную для экономической политики тему.
Ставка LIBOR должна быть заменена на систему альтернативных ставок, считают главы европейских центробанков.Банки, замешанные в скандале с LIBOR Регуляторы предлагают заменить LIBOR на ряд альтернативных ставок, которые будут формироваться только исходя из рыночной ситуации. Подобное предложение было опубликовано в ежегодном докладе Базельского комитета по банковскому надзору.Помимо этого также предлагается создать механизм, который позволит избежать коллапса рынка межбанковского кредитования, который произошел во время мирового финансового кризиса в 2008 г. В рамках "экстренного" механизма предлагается в кризисной ситуации позволить активное вмешательство регуляторов и центральных банков для поддержки рынка. "Понятно, что центральные банки должны играть важную роль в поддержке развития альтернативных базовых ставок", - заявил глава Банка Англии Мервин Кинг.Ранее сообщалось, что реформу будет проводить Управление по финансовым услугам (FSA) во главе с Мартином Уитли. Изменения будут существенными: ставки будут рассчитываться на основе заключенных сделок, предусмотрена возможность использования альтернативных ставок, а манипулирование ставками станет уголовным преступлением.Уитли представил доклад, согласно которому право расчета LIBOR должно перейти к FSA. Помимо этого, на его взгляд, необходимо снизить количество валют, а также периодов времени, для которых рассчитывается LIBOR. На данный момент в общем итоге рассчитывается 150 ставок (10 валют, 15 периодов). История вопросаСтавка LIBOR - долгожитель рынка. С 1984 г. начали закладываться основы современного принципа ее расчета. Сегодня все выглядит довольно просто: LIBOR задают каждый рабочий день специалисты Британской ассоциации банкиров (British Bankers Association). Они опрашивают 16 крупнейших банков Великобритании по стоимости их заимствований на "сегодня". В расчет принимаются заимствования на 15 разных периодов от овернайта до одного года в долларах, евро, иенах, швейцарских франках - всего в 10 валютах. 4 самых низких и 4 самых высоких значений отбрасывают, из оставшихся 8-ми вычисляется среднее – это и есть LIBOR. Уитли предлагал сократить это число до 20 в течение года, а публикацию LIBOR для австралийского, канадского и новозеландского долларов, а также датской и шведской крон необходимо прекратить. Вероятнее всего, Базельский комитет будет придерживаться именно данной стратегии при внесении предложений отказа от ставки LIBOR.
Великобритания и Китай в ближайшем будущем будут использовать валютные свопы фунтов и юаней для обеспечения экономического сотрудничества между странами.Согласно пресс-релизу Банка Англии трехлетние взаимные свопы будут использоваться для финансирования торговли и прямых инвестиций, что будет способствовать развитию экономических отношений между странами. Глава британского ЦБ Мервин Кинг по итогам своей поездки в Китай пообещал предпринять все меры, чтобы договор вступил в силу в ближайшее время."Создание своп-линии фунт/юань поддержит внутреннюю финансовую стабильность Великобритании", - заявил глава британского Центробанка.Ранее главы британских банков предлагали национальному регулятору решиться на подобный шаг, в рамках программы по укреплению Лондона как мирового финансового центра. В случае успеха юань продолжит уверенное "шествие" по миру, поскольку еще в 2012 г. аналогичные договоры были подписаны с центральными банками 17 стран.
Новым управляющим Банка Англии станет экспат — нынешний глава канадского ЦБ Марк Карни. Карни, работавший ранее в инвестбанке Goldman Sachs, заменит в новой должности Мервина Кинга, который уходит со своего поста в июле. О назначении Карни объявил на заседании парламента британский министр финансов Джордж Осборн. «Я иду туда, где предстоит решать самые сложные задачи», — сказал Карни на пресс-конференции в Оттаве, подчеркнув необходимость «перебалансировки» британской экономики, чрезмерно зависимой от сектора финансовых услуг, сотрясаемого скандалами и убытками. Впервые за более чем 300-летнюю историю Банка Англии его возглавит небританец. До недавнего времени наиболее вероятным претендентом на пост «главного банкира» с зарплатой в 624 тысячи фунтов стерлингов в год считали нынешнего заместителя управляющего Пола Такера, пишет Reuters. В Банке Канады агентству не сообщили точную сумму вознаграждения Карни, но назвали диапазон в 436,2-513 тысяч долларов США. В период кризиса Карни удалось ограничить масштабы рецессии в Канаде, где, по сравнению с другими развитыми странами, спад был самым неглубоким и непродолжительным. Ни одному из банков страны не потребовалась государственная помощь, довольно быстро удалось восстановить все рабочие места, которые были потеряны из-за экономических потрясений. В противоположность этому, Великобритании пришлось спасать Royal Bank of Scotland и Lloyds Banking Group, а экономика, шестая по величине в мире, спустя четыре года после начала кризиса с трудом «приходит в себя» — до сих пор не удалось возобновить нормальный рост, комментирует Reuters. Со следующего года Банк Англии берет на себя функции финансового регулирования, что почти вдвое увеличит структуру организации. Это стало дополнительным аргументом в пользу кандидатуры знающего управленца с опытом работы на финансовых рынках. Экономист из Toronto-Dominion Bank Дерек Берлтон говорит, что Карни — прагматик, не склонный к абстрактным теориям. Карни женат на британке. В свое время он десять лет жил в Великобритании — учился в магистратуре и затем писал докторскую в Оксфорде и работал в Goldman Sachs. Как сообщил министр финансов Великобритании Джордж Осборн, Карни будет подавать на гражданство. Министр финансов Канады Джим Флаэрти признал, что испытывает смешанные чувства по поводу назначения Карни: «Для нас это потеря, нам будет его не хватать». «У нас есть отлаженная система, которая работает очень хорошо. Она подверглась испытанию в период серьезнейших экономических и финансовых потрясений на нашем веку, и она выдержала эту проверку», — говорит Карни. Обозреватели добавляют, что задачу канадского центробанка в некоторой степени упрощал рост цен на важнейшие товары канадского экспорта — нефть, золото и зерно. Карни остается в Банке Канады по май включительно, к работе на новом посту в Великобритании он приступит в июле. Как сообщает Reuters, он назначается на пять лет, хотя предполагалось, что срок полномочий следующего управляющего Банка Англии составит восемь лет.
Вице-премьер Великобритании, глава входящей в коалицию Партии либеральных демократов Никк Клегг призвал следующего главу Банка Англии сохранять дистанцию с банками страны и банковской системы в целом."Очевидно, что нужен человек, понимающий систему работы банковской системы, но не поглощенный ею",- заявил Клегг.Министр финансов Джордж Осборн в этом месяце официально начал поиск кандидата для замены Мервина Кинга на посту главы Бака Англии. Кинг должен покинуть место в июне, после завершения максимально возможного срока пребывания в этом кресле: два срока по 5 лет.Сложность выбора нового главы состоит в том, что глава либеральных демократов Клегг будет иметь решающий голос. Сложно в такой ситуации сказать, кто имеет наиболее высокие шансы, учитывая, что Клегг известен своей крайне жесткой позицией относительно помощи и поддержки финансового сектора.Бывший заместитель главы Банка Англии Джон Гив заявил, что выбор будет очень трудным для правительства, так как кандидатов, репутация которых была бы не запятнана, после ряда скандалов, связанных с манипуляцией ключевой ставкой на рынке межбанковского кредитования, практически нет.Министр по делам бизнеса Винс Кейбл считает, что наиболее подходящая кандидатура на пост главы Банка Англии - Пол Такер, член Комитета по монетарной политике Банка Англии, поскольку по опросам его репутация не пострадала в ходе недавних скандалов, связанных с манипуляцией LIBOR.