Energean объявила о начале разработки месторождений "Кариш" и "Танин"
Joe LaVorgna, Natixis CIB Americas chief economist, and Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton chief economist, discuss the GOP’s efforts to push a ‘phase two’ of tax reform and the impact of a trade war on the market. CNBC’s Steve Liesman weighs in.
По словам Патрика Артуса, аналитика Natixis, очевидно, что инфляция в еврозоне будет очень низкой до конца 2018 года. «Финансовые рынки и ЕЦБ ожидают постепенного повышения инфляции в еврозоне. Однако: Удельные затраты на рабочую силу, определяющие базовую инфляцию, не собираются повышаться и увеличились менее чем на 1% за год; Цены на нефть вряд ли будут расти намного больше, а это означает, что дополнительная (основная) инфляция, вызванная ростом цен на нефть, постепенно исчезнет; Евро выглядит явно переоцененным (учитывая приток капитала в еврозону, внешний долг США и рост доли евро в валютных резервах), что привело к импортной дезинфляции». «В сценарии, когда цены на нефть останутся стабильными в 2018 году, а курс евро подорожает до 1,30 против доллара (что подразумевает устранение эффекта цен на нефть и обменного курса USD/EUR), основная инфляция будет ниже 1% до конца 2018 года, что значительно ниже консенсус-прогноза». Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Патрик Артус, аналитик Natixis, объясняет, что все начинается с "парадокса Триффина", описанного Робертом Триффином в 1960 году: Соединенные Штаты выпускают резервную валюту, которая заставляет их иметь внешний дефицит и внешний долг, поскольку они должны быть способны обеспечивать активы в долларах для инвесторов в остальном мире. "Результатом увеличения внешнего долга США является ухудшения качества доллара, что приводит к финансовой уязвимости, и следовательно, к "проклятию резервной валюты". Евро также является резервной валютой, но в зоне евро нет ни внешнего дефицита, ни внешнего долга. Это означает, что финансовые активы в евро недоступны для покупки нерезидентами, в то время как они должны быть, учитывая статус евро в качестве резервной валюты. В результате, как только мир накапливает валютные резервы, и экономическая и политическая ситуация в зоне евро уже не вызывает беспокойства, евро резко дорожает. Существует положительная корреляция между ценами на нефть и обменным курсом евро, поскольку рост цен на нефть приводит к увеличению спроса на евро в странах-экспортерах нефти. Поэтому важно, чтобы политические и экономические власти еврозоны понимали, что статус евро в качестве резервной валюты несовместим с тем, что еврозона не имеет внешнего долга, и эта ситуация порождает структурную переоценку обменного курса евро", - сообщил Артус. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
В начале 1960-х годов американский экономист Роберт Триффин сформулировал дилемму, которая носит его имя и формулируется так: «Для того, чтобы обеспечить центральные банки других стран необходимым количеством долларов для формирования национальных валютных резервов, необходимо, чтобы в США постоянно наблюдался дефицит платёжного баланса (и большой внешний долг). Но дефицит платёжного баланса читать далее…
Amid horror stories of crashing vol-selling funds and entire VIX-linked products getting decimated, like the now infamous XIV, an occasional success story emerges. Take Global Sigma: the fund, which is run by CIO Hanming Rao formerly a stat arb quant, and macro futures and options trader at Millennium and SAC, has a Vol Arb strategy that is absolutely crushing it at a time when most of its vol-selling peers are getting hammered. The reason: GS Hedge is a systematic long VIX directional trading strategy. Here is its technical description: The strategy’s prediction models are informed by Global Sigma’s history as an early trader of the weekly options on the S&P500 futures contract launched by the CME in Q3 2009. The option strategy's risk management framework has been driven by the model’s 1-day price distribution prediction forecast of VIX that was first utilized by Global Sigmain 2009. Some more on the fund's history: Global Sigma began trading managed accounts in late 2009. Global Sigma employs a model-driven, high turn-over approach to trading options. Global Sigma has become one of the most active managers of the weekly expiry S&P500 options contract in the CTA industry and generally seeks to trade inefficiently priced Puts and Calls. The strategy partially hedges the portfolio’s Delta/Gamma exposures in a discretionary manner by taking positions in the S&P500 futures market and by buying under priced Puts and Calls. The average daily Delta exposure of the portfolio since inception has been -0.13, -0.23 since January 2013. Technicals aside, what the fund does - in simple English - is simple: it is long both the VIX and long S&P futures, or as it states, "Long VIX, beta-hedged with Long S&P 500, i.e. a tail risk hedge." Approximately 40% of the time a long VIX position is established that is beta-hedged with 6 to 10 eMini S&P500 contracts. 60% of the time, a 1-day normal price distribution is predicted and the portfolio remains 100% in cash. What makes Global Sigma unique is that unlike other fat-tail funds who are mostly long the VIX and suffer constant theta decay in hopes of striking it rich on day when the VIX soars, this fund pair trades the VIX and the S&P with little if any day-to-day decay. Instead, what it hopes for is days like Monday when as Natixis pointed out on Tuesday, the "VIX spike corresponded to a 15% market crash", and instead the S&P dropped "only" 4%. As a result, the otherwise unspectacular pair trade generated unprecedented returns, and as can be seen in the table below, just had its best month every, generating a 18.1% return in just the first week of February, and is now up 26.8% YTD. Curious to learn more? Here is an Opalesque interview with Global Sigma's founder, Hanming Rao. First some more background: He began his career in finance in 2005 as a Quantitative Researcher at Ellington Management. From 2006 to 2009, he was a Global Macro trader at SAC Capital where he managed a exposure in global futures and OTC products including short-term OTC options on the S&P500 Index. In early 2009 Hanming joined Millennium Partners which he left on friendly terms to set up his own firm having obtained seed capital from an X-Harvard Professor. Today, Global Sigma manages approximately $300m in two main strategies involving options and futures on the S&P500 and Treasury Bond/Note contracts. The original program has a track record of six and a half years. Over this time, the program has generated an average annual return of 14% with a 2.6 Sharpe with 92% profitable months. The correlation to the S&P500 has been -0.04.
Broadridge Financial (BR) is expected to gain from acquisitions and an enhanced client base in second-quarter fiscal 2018.
Still shocked by the VIX surging over 50? Well, here's some good news: it could be worse, much worse. In fact, as Natixis' William Imbrogno calculates this morning, the VIX spike - the largest in history, and still rising - should correspond to a 15% market crash. Here is the note from the director of equity derivatives flow at Natixis: The VIX spike was the largest in history and should correspond to a 15% market move, the drop of 4% on the SPX should correspond to an increase in the VIX of 5 points. Showing the asymmetrical impact of the short squeeze on volatility given the dominance of Algo's, vol control, CTA's and short volatility strategies. Perhaps this is a strong case to reduce the reliance on systematic automated strategies in favour of active management? Yes, "perhaps." Or then again, perhaps it just shows that when the market is going up, nobody cares how or why - whether it's due to the Fed, algos, quants, machines or Joe Sixpack. However, when it all goes terribly wrong, the fingerpointing immediately begins, with the first culprit - naturally - the robots, algos and quants. After all one must defend, distract and scapegoat away from that ultimate bubble blower, the Fed, at all costs.
Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May has recently been in China to forge new trade partnerships for the time after Brexit. May hopes to secure a free trade agreement before leaving the European Union in 2019. The UK sends 3.1 percent of its exports to China, while just seven percent of its imports are from China, according to the Office for National Statistics. Doing business with the UK post-Brexit will not be easy for China, according to Jianwei Xu, a senior economist for China Natixis. "It's not going to be as easy as people may think because after Brexit, the UK will have to go through a lot of procedures to sign any contracts, to sign any trade deals with a third country. First, it needs to settle its Brexit deal ... before that, it cannot even discuss multilateral tariff schemes." Thus any UK-China deal could take years to bare fruit. "For China, if the UK doesn't settle its Brexit deal with the European Union, it doesn't want to involve itself too early in [trade] negotiations," says Xu. The wait-and-see approach is currently the card China is playing. "The golden era between the UK and China was established while the UK was still part of the European Union," says Xu who explains that the UK was China's gateway into the EU. Without that access, "the attraction made from the UK is less so for China at the moment. So that's basically the general framework China faces when they negotiate with the UK - it's less attractive at the moment." More from Counting the Cost on: YouTube - http://aje.io/countingthecostYT Website - http://aljazeera.com/countingthecost/
As society struggles to to catch up with the pace of technological change, governments around the world are waking up to the fact that our internet economy and how it operates is unaccountable and undertaxed. The European Union is reviewing Google for allegedly abusing its dominant market position in search. Germany is already investigating how Facebook profits from user data. The US is looking at whether Apple broke laws with software updates which slowed older iPhones. And Congress is holding more hearings on the use of social media platforms to allegedly disrupt US elections. Even so, with the increased scrutiny over disinformation, fake news and malicious actors buying ads, the internet companies could still find themselves hit by regulation sparked by the big tech backlash. Consumers, too, are asking if things like smartphones, designed to keep us online for longer are just making companies richer at the expense of children's mental health. "Since the Russia meddling and fake news, you're seeing a lot more heat on Facebook, Twitter and Alphabet - not just on Capitol Hill, but the EU and abroad," says Daniel Ives, chief investment officer at GBH Insights. Facebook has recently changed its news feed algorithm to reflect communication from friends and family, as opposed to news outlets, and Ives believes "they're definitely in the crosshairs of legislatures. And I think you're seeing Twitter, Alpha, and Youtube be a lot more strict and a lot more focused on some of the content that's coming through as we're seeing the double-edged sword of social media." European regulators aren't shy against tech giants, explains Ives. "There's a boxing match between Silicon Valley and the EU that's getting more intense. Part of the focus has been on Apple and Microsoft, but now you're seeing stricter potential for regulatory oversight. I think part of it is, these companies need to play nice in the sandbox. They need to have an olive branch to the EU. You've seen that with Facebook and their change to the tax code and what they've done in Ireland." According to Ives, "these companies, at this point, basically own the consumer kingdom...I don't think their core business model will change, but ... transparency and a lot more oversight around content" could be one example in extending the olive branch. "Facebook said they're going to stop crypto advertising and bitcoin advertising, so they said if this could be an issue [for the EU] then they're going to take it off." Also on this episode of Counting the Cost: UK-China relations: Britain's Prime Minister Theresa May has been in China this week to boost trade between the two nations as the UK looks to forge new partnerships for when it leaves the EU. But China will want to see what a final Brexit deal looks like before making any big commitments. There's a great deal at stake for both countries, as Adrian Brown reports from Beijing. Jianwei Xu, a senior economist for Natixis in China, offers his take. German car scandal: In Germany, opposition MPs are demanding answers from the government about a scandal involving well-known carmakers and diesel fume tests. A research group funded by BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen reportedly exposed volunteers and monkeys to toxic exhaust gasses. VW's suspended one of its senior executives following the public outcry about the secret tests, as Dominic Kane reports from Berlin. Thailand canal: Panama has its famous canal, the Suez canal cuts through Egypt, and now there's a plan to resurrect a 400-year-old plan for a sea link in the south of Thailand. The waterway would link the Indian Ocean and Andaman Sea, with the Gulf of Thailand and the South China Sea. Wayne Hay reports from Si Kao, which is home to a coastal community. Myanmar economy: Myanmar's economic prospects with the West are at risk, after mounting international criticism over its handling of the Rohingya crisis, as Scott Heidler reports from Yangon. Recently, a top US diplomat quit the government's advisory panel after a heated exchange with Myanmar's leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Bill Richardson's departure shows how Aung San Suu Kyi appears to be pushing away critics - and relying on old allies for support. Chinese medicine: Scientists in the West have long disputed the therapeutic value of traditional Chinese medicine, but it seems the ancient craft is gaining popularity at home and abroad. It's even been hailed by Xi Jinping's government as "the gem of Chinese science". Rob McBride reports from the country's biggest traditional medicine market in the city of Bozhou, where business has never been better. More from Counting the Cost on: YouTube - http://aje.io/countingthecostYT Website - http://aljazeera.com/countingthecost/ - Subscribe to our channel: http://aje.io/AJSubscribe - Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AJEnglish - Find us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/aljazeera - Check our website: http://www.aljazeera.com/
РУСАЛ разместил 5-летние еврооблигации на $500 млн. Ставка купона была установлена в размере 4,85% годовых. "Более 100 инвесторов из Европы, Америки, России и Азии вошли в книгу заявок в новом выпуске еврооблигаций, размер которой превысил $1,5 млрд.", - сообщила компания. Средства от размещения еврооблигаций планируется преимущественно направить на рефинансирование существующих кредитов, что будет способствовать дальнейшей оптимизации параметров кредитного портфеля и снижению стоимости заимствований. "Успешное размещение третьего выпуска еврооблигаций говорит о том, что компания по-прежнему является привлекательным объектом для инвесторов, доверие которых постоянно укрепляется. Это способствует улучшению условий наших заимствований, соответственно, появлению дополнительных возможностей для развития бизнеса, которые мы активно используем", - заявил Владислав Соловьев, генеральный директор РУСАЛа. Организаторы размещения: Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, VTB Capital, Credit Bank of Moscow, Credit Suisse, Gazprombank, NATIXIS, Renaissance Capital, Sberbank CIB, Sovcombank и UniCredit Bank
После того как цена палладия достигла отметки в 1139,68$ за одну унцию, которая является рекордной отметкой за всё время, некоторые аналитики говорят о риске наступления коррекции цены драгметалла...
The price of oil has hit $70 a barrel for the first time since 2014. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, jumped after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it would continue to limit supplies. The organisation accounts for 40 percent of the world's output. Naeem Aslam, the chief market analyst with London-based Think Markets says there are three major factors driving prices up: a supply cut, stability in demand and most importantly, the Aramco IPO. "The entire reason Saudi Arabia is behind price stability is mainly because of this IPO ... [it is] because of that we have seen the consistency of the supply cut throughout that supply cut decision," says Aslam. "[This trend] is highly likely to continue. The price could certainly continue to the upside. Why? Because I think there is a stability in terms of demand, especially Chinese demand ... we have seen a 10 percent growth in the last year; over 8 million barrels per day," continues Aslam. But what does this mean for the average consumer? Will prices for goods and services like transport and flights increase? Aslam believes inflation is inevitable. "Over in the UK, we have already seen that [price increase affecting our daily lives] in a number of different factors. From a global perspective, higher oil prices have already begun to feed into different parts of the equation." With US oil production reportedly now set to rival that of Saudi Arabia, how will this prediction affect the global oil production landscape? Aslam says, "Higher oil production is not the problem as long as the demand is there ... and the stability." A new equilibrium: China and France The presidents of France and China have signed trade deals worth billions during a partnership-building exercise, including aerospace and nuclear energy projects. The three-day visit, aimed at deepening economic ties, was hailed by the two parties as the start of a new era of strategic partnership between the two nations. It also saw a mutual consensus reached on important issues such as global security, promoting free trade and combatting climate change - a vision that's completely at odds with that of US President Donald Trump. As relationships with the US are fraught with tension and Brexit looms over the UK, is a free trade relationship with China looking evermore appealing to Europe? "It is really an attractive market," says Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Natixis Bank. "We are in a recovery period and Brexit is something we have to manage. Recovery in Europe is important to everyone: from the US, to Africa, to Asia." Will Macron's attempts to push for more freedom for French and, ultimately, European businesses to trade in Chinese markets succeed? "This was the first step in a European strategy," says Waechter. "When we look at world trade, there are three champions: the US, China and Europe ... we have to draw a new equilibrium between China and Europe." More from Counting the Cost on: YouTube - http://aje.io/countingthecostYT Website - http://aljazeera.com/countingthecost/
Mutual Fund Report for LGRRX
В то время, как весь мир наблюдает за «американскими горками» курса биткоина, все меньше внимания уделяется технологии, которая за ним стоит – блокчейну. При этом в правильных руках блокчейн может принести существенную прибыль не только владельцам криптовалют или выходящим на ICO стартаперам, но и, например, рынку торговли нефтью