• Теги
    • избранные теги
    • Страны / Регионы1445
      • Показать ещё
      Международные организации119
      • Показать ещё
      Люди191
      • Показать ещё
      Компании775
      • Показать ещё
      Разное496
      • Показать ещё
      Издания94
      • Показать ещё
      Показатели112
      • Показать ещё
      Формат30
Выбор редакции
27 мая, 00:53

Gatland's Lions face ultimate challenge in New Zealand

The British and Irish Lions arrive in New Zealand next week armed with Kiwi movies and Irish inspiration -- and a belief they can win a series against…

27 мая, 00:13

Procrastinating on May 26, 2017

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must- and Should-Reads:** * **The Future of Education and Lifelong Learning: DeLong Opening DRAFT | Equitable Growth** * **The Benefits of Free Trade: Time to Fly My Neoliberal Freak Flag High!: Hoisted from March 2016 | Equitable Growth** * **Kavya Vaghul**: _Weekend reading: the “fantasy budget” edition_: "Greg Leiserson discusses... fantasy budgeting around policies and plans that have yet to be developed... * **Kavya Vaghul**: _Trump administration 2018 budget swaps heavy cuts to education for focus on school choice_: "The more fundamental problem is that there isn’t much evidence that school choice programs, specifically vouchers, have substantial positive effects... * **Kevin Drum**: _Trump: I'll Put a Stop to Germany Selling Cars in the US_: "This from Der Spiegel... * **Ben Bernanke**: _Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy_: "The BOJ shouldn’t stop its determined pursuit of its inflation target... * **Nicholas MacPherson**: _Joseph Chamberlain sets the Tories a bad example_: "On the big national issues of his day, he was on the wrong side of history... * **Nick Bunker**: _U.S. over-education and underemployment over the course of a lifetime | Equitable Growth_: "Ammar Farooq also finds that almost half of the moves into underemployment—defined as having a...

26 мая, 21:39

Henry Schein (HSIC) Rides on Global Growth, Strategic Deals

On May 25 2017, we issued an updated research report on Melville, NY-based Henry Schein, Inc. (HSIC).

26 мая, 10:25

Разум — эмоции, книга -экран, или прошлое как будущее от Интернета до Джеймса Бонда

Человек и мир движутся в четырех стенах, предопределяющих их мысли и поведение. Это разум и эмоции, которые кодируются в книге и на экране, а затем вновь воспроизводятся в реальности, чтобы вновь записаться в книге или […]

Выбор редакции
26 мая, 04:41

DevOps Drives No-Cost Digital Transformation At Westpac New Zealand

What about the rest of each dollar – the part that doesn’t go toward customer value? That portion represents waste – and eliminating waste was the key to the bank’s entire transformation.

25 мая, 21:50

Foreign Central Banks Are Quietly Scooping Up US Treasurys

Back in February, we wrote that over half a year after we first reported last August that foreign official institutions - central banks, sovereign wealth funds and reserve managers - are liquidating US Treasurys in record amounts, a process that only accelerated into year end when official entities sold a record $405 billion in US paper in the LTM period, Bloomberg decided to catch up to the topic with "America’s Biggest Creditors Dump Treasuries in Warning to Trump." However, by then Bloomberg's report was no longer factual or accurate, because while the 2 month delayed TIC data still showed declines (mostly due to MTM changes in Treasurys amounts), the far more concurrent weekly report of Treasurys held in custody at the Fed showed a substantial rebound in foreign holdings of US Treasurys. And a quick look at the latest Fed data shows that the urgency by foreign central banks to snap up US paper has only grown in the past three months. As the latest custody data from the Fed reveals, in 2017, debt held at the Fed on behalf of foreign central banks has jumped by $61.2 billion to $2.922 trillion, the highest level since June 2016. One of the biggest buyers has, perhaps surprisingly, been China - the second largest foreign holder of US paper after Japan - which after selling $188 billion in Treasurys in 2016 has bought $29 billion YTD according to the latest TIC data. A main driver behind this mini buying spree is that the relentless Chinese reserve outflow, which started in late 2014 and continued for over 2 years, has moderated after the PBOC erected an unprecedented firewall to contain capital inside the country, and which has removed the pressure on the PBOC to liquidate US-denominated assets to offset the capital outflows. As the WSJ observes, China’s foreign reserves slid more than $500 billion between August 2015—when China shocked the world with a one-time devaluation of the yuan—and December 2016. The reserves have since rebounded from $3.01 trillion in December to $3.03 trillion in April. The slowdown in reserve outflows has also afforded the Chinese Yuan with a period of surprising stability, which has been cited by some as the reason why emerging markets have remained very stable in light of the recent geopolitical and commodity volatility. Another factor was the strength of the dollar. as the recent reversal in the greenback has helped fuel central-bank buying of Treasurys. The strengthening USD from mid-2014 until the end of 2016 created a "negative feedback loop in emerging markets, with capital leaving developing economies, which then caused local currencies to tumble." The weaker dollar in 2017 has also helped stabilize local EM currencies and reduced the need for central banks to sell Treasurys and use the open-market proceeds to intervene in the currency market. Through Wednesday, the dollar had fallen 1.4% this year against the Chinese yuan freely traded in the offshore markets, after a 6% rally in 2016. And while the Yuan was barely changed the day of the Moody's downgrade, on Thursday Yuan, both the onshore and offshore, surged by the most in 2 months after at least two Chinese banks sold dollars in the onshore market, in what traders dubbed was a direct manipulation of the currency by Beijing, as the PBOC’s daily fixings had "materially diverged" from the prescribed formula resulting in a gap between the reference rate and currency’s spot value. And according to Khoon Goh of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, instead of sticking to fixing formula, the central bank opted for active intervention to narrow the difference. But back to Treasury flows, where in addition to China other foreign central banks have been bidding up US paper as it continues to offer more attractive yields compared with peers in Germany, Japan and the U.K. During the first quarter, Saudi Arabia’s Treasury holdings rose $11.6 billion. Russia’s holdings rose $13.7 billion, South Korea’s was up $4.2 billion and Singapore’s was up $2.5 billion. Even Japan, which earlier this year dumped the most US Treasurys since May of 2013 is back in the fray, only this time it is no longer hedging its dollar exposure, a decision which may prove painful once currency volatility returns. A further reason for the return of foreign buyers is that after dropping at the start of the year, the price of 10Y TSYs has rebounded sharply, making the purchase a safer proposition. Purchases from foreign central banks had contributed to declines in Treasury yields this year after a big rise in late 2016. That in turn has caused hedge funds and money managers to exit from or pare back bets that bond yields would extend a climb. This  process is now in reverse, just as the Fed is warning of not only a June rate hike but potentially unwinding its balance sheet as soon as September. “There are not a lot of options for foreign central banks’’ to diversify their portfolios away from the Treasury bond market, said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank. Separately, as the WSJ adds, global foreign reserves excluding gold have stabilized. The amount was $10.9 trillion at the end of March, up from $10.8 trillion at the end of December, according to IMF data. Echoing what we said in February, analysts quoted by the WSJ said it was premature to worry about selling Treasurys by the central banks. But should the dollar resume its appreciation, or should Trump's fiscal reform re-emerge, pressure may mount for central banks to sell Treasurys to defend local currencies. There is also the question of China's capital account firewall: “The wild card is the dollar,’’ said Alejandra Grindal, senior international economist at Ned Davis Research. “Whether the stabilization will continue depends on if the dollar strengthens significantly and how well China manages its outflows and its communication about yuan policy." To be sure, should enterprising Chinese oligarchs (i.e., buyers of Vancouver, Toronto and other assorted housing) find another way to bypass China's draconian capital controls, we will revert right back to square one and the selling will resume.

Выбор редакции
25 мая, 20:26

Refining NZ lets contract for Marsden Point refinery

New Zealand Refining Co. Ltd. (Refining NZ) has let a contract to WorleyParsons Ltd. to provide engineering, procurement, shutdown, and construction management (EPCM) services for its 107,000-b/d refinery at Northland, in Marsden Point, New Zealand, near Whangarei.

25 мая, 19:44

Yes. Demographics and Economic Growth Matter for Equity Returns

Quick note... for those not already listening, my buddy Patrick O’Shaughnessy has one of the (if not the) best investing podcasts out there with his podcast Invest Like the Best. Each week he sits down with some of the best capital allocators, investment thinkers, etc... in the world and really allows his guests to share deep insights. I highly recommend it to anyone reading this who isn't already doing so."Real GDP Growth Doesn't Matter for Equity Returns" is Wrong This week's guest was David Salem, the founding president and CIO for The Investment Fund for Foundations. The discussion was great as always, but I would like to focus on one small aspect related to where in the world he currently finds value. He specifically makes the case for Asia ex-Japan ex-China for a number of reasons I agree with (value and alignment of management with shareholders), but he gets one aspect (which he views as a negative) wrong based on his view of what historical analysis reveals. The point of this post is to outline this flaw with supporting data because it's a common theory and one that can be easily dismissed the data itself is viewed. It also happens to makes his case for an allocation to Asia ex-Japan ex-China even stronger.First to David (bold mine):We also have some money allocated under present conditions to I’ll call it Asia ex-Japan ex-China. Here’s where a careful study of long-term capital market history will tell you, and my favorite source of this is of course is Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton’s book Triumph of the Optimist and all the sequels to it, will tell you that high growth economies that are flattered by relatively high growth rates of the GDP level and by favorable demography tend to generate surprisingly, perhaps to many people, sub-par returns. So. You’re a value guy, I’m a value guy. We get that. So, why would we be chasing return for long-term capital in Asia ex-Japan and even ex-China, and it’s because I’d say almost notwithstanding the favorable demographics and the relatively favorable debt profile the prices, the current prices at which interest can be acquired in well managed businesses where the managements have a sufficient, not perfect, but sufficient alignment of interest with outside shareholders, they tend to be family controlled and family dominated.To summarize… he has found value in Asia ex-Japan ex-China DESPITE its favorable growth and demographics. To be blunt… this is a common mistake and flat out wrong. Here are other heavy hitters quoting Dimon, Marsh, and Staunton making the same mistake.The FT Rising GDP not always a boon for equities (bold mine):Analysis by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School of 19 major countries between 1900 and 2011 shows that the correlation between the compound real rate of return on equities and the compound growth rate of real per capita GDP is minus 0.39. Investors would have been best off investing in the most sluggish economies.  Similar analysis of 15 major emerging markets between 1988 and 2011 produces a remarkably similar negative correlation of minus 0.41. To be fair, some other combinations produce correlations nearer to zero. But, to the chagrin of emerging market bulls, whichever way the data are interrogated, a meaningful positive correlation between GDP growth and equity returns remains elusive.The Economist A Puzzling Discrepancy:The annual report on markets by Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh, and Mike Staunton of the London Business School (produced in association with Credit Suisse) is always good value and this year's effort is no exception. The main theme is related to emerging markets and will be the focus of this week's column. But one oddity emerged in the course of the report that is quite difficult to explain and is worth exploring in more detail. An oft-quoted argument for investing in emerging markets is their superior economic growth. But the professors have pointed out in the past that economic growth and equity returns are not correlated at all. This Economist article was in reference to the 2014 Credit Suisse Yearbook (which contains all the pertinent data) and is fortunately still available online. Let's take a look. The data for the following charts were all pulled from Table 1 in the pdf (reproduced below for any of you nerds that wants easy access).Decomposition of Real GDP Growth and Economic Returns (1900-2013) Real GDP Population Growth Per Capita Real GDP Real Return on Equities Canada 3.63% 1.65% 1.95% 5.75% Australia 3.35% 1.61% 1.71% 7.37% USA 3.29% 1.27% 1.99% 6.45% South Africa 3.20% 2.08% 1.10% 7.39% New Zealand 2.89% 1.53% 1.34% 6.01% Mean 3.27% 1.63% 1.62% 6.59% Ireland 2.83% 0.05% 2.77% 4.09% Portugal 2.70% 0.61% 2.08% 3.66% Sweden 2.70% 0.54% 2.15% 5.77% Spain 2.66% 0.82% 1.82% 3.62% Switzerland 2.16% 0.80% 1.36% 4.41% Mean 2.61% 0.56% 2.04% 4.31% Japan 3.68% 0.94% 2.71% 4.11% Norway 3.19% 0.70% 2.47% 4.26% Finland 3.04% 0.63% 2.39% 5.31% Netherlands 2.83% 1.06% 1.75% 4.95% Italy 2.71% 0.53% 2.17% 1.91% Denmark 2.49% 0.70% 1.78% 5.21% France 2.30% 0.43% 1.87% 3.17% Belgium 2.25% 0.43% 1.81% 2.63% Austria 2.21% 0.31% 1.89% 0.67% Germany 2.03% 0.37% 1.66% 3.23% UK 1.84% 0.39% 1.45% 5.33% Source: Dimson, Marsh, and StauntonThe Issue: Per Capita GDP is the Wrong MeasureThe first chart is a reproduction of the chart from the yearbook that is commonly shared to make the case that real GDP and real equity returns have a limited or negative relationship. Even Dimson, Marsh and Staunton state investors do not capture economic growth (bold mine) based on the downward slope and r-square of 0.10.The horizontal axis measures the growth in per capita real GDP, while the vertical axis displays the annualized real return, including reinvested dividends, from each equity market over the entire period since 1900. In the cross section of countries, it appears that equity investors do not capture benefits as a result of economic advancement, as measured by per capita real GDP.Let's quickly think about the issue of apples to oranges issue here. Per capita GDP is the level of GDP per person, whereas equity growth is the equity returns in aggregate. This would be like wondering why you can't lose weight after eating a full pizza every night because it only has 300 calories per slice. What matters isn't the calories per slice, its what the calories (economic output) is in aggregate for the full pie.Real GDP Accounts for THE Most Important Piece... Population GrowthNow let's take a look at an apples to apples comparison... the total real economic output produced (real GDP) vs the total real equity return over the same period. We now see a scatter plot that moves up and to the right (vs down to the right). I would note that this exact chart is produced ON THE SAME PAGE as the above chart in their 2014 yearbook, but has seemingly been ignored.Despite the stronger relationship between real GDP and real equity returns, there is an even stronger relationship out there... population growth (i.e. the piece REMOVED from the per capita GDP calculation). I have not found this specific chart produced anywhere else in their yearbooks, but at a 0.56 r-square it is clearly the strongest relationship of the three (despite the lowest r-square result most often quoted), thus explains when you remove it why you get a non-existent relationship.Summary: The Case for Asia ex-Japan ex-China is even StrongerTo bring this full circle, David Salem outlined that he has found value in Asia ex-Japan ex-China DESPITE its favorable growth and demographics. Instead, there is a case to be made that the allocation could make sense ONLY due to the favorable growth and demographics. Combined with the attractive valuations in these markets, especially relative to the developed world, there is a very strong case to be made for diversifying to emerging / high growth countries.EconomPic Data: Darn Nice Economic Eye Candy

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
25 мая, 19:01

3D printed rocket takes off in NZ’s space foray

ROCKET Lab, a Silicon Valley-funded space launch company, yesterday launched the maiden flight of its battery-powered, 3D-printed rocket from New Zealand’s remote Mahia Peninsula. “Made it to space.

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
25 мая, 17:30

Nepal says bodies of 4 Everest climbers not from this year’s climbing season

NEPAL said on Thursday that four bodies found in tents at the highest camp on Mount Everest were not of mountaineers from this year’s climbing season. Nepali sherpas said they had seen the bodies in

25 мая, 17:30

Nepal says bodies of four Everest climbers not from this year’s climbing season

NEPAL said on Thursday that four bodies found in tents at the highest camp on Mount Everest were not of mountaineers from this year’s climbing season. Nepali sherpas said they had seen the bodies in

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
31 января 2015, 08:17

Новая Зеландия: Блинные скалы

 Punakaiki is a small community on the West Coast of the South Island of New Zealand, between Westport and Greymouth. The community lies on the edge of the Paparoa National Park. The Pancake Rocks are a very popular tourist destination at Dolomite Point south of the main village. The Pancake Rocks are a heavily eroded limestone area where the sea bursts through several vertical blowholes during high tides. Together with the 'pancake'-layering of the limestone (created by immense pressure on alternating hard and soft layers of marine creatures and plant sediments), these form the main attraction of the area. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punakaiki Paparoa National Park is on the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand. It was established in 1987 and encompasses 306 km².[1] The park ranges from on or near the coastline to the peak of the Paparoa Ranges. A separate section of the park lies to the north and is centered at Ananui Creek. The park protects a limestone karst area. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paparoa_National_Park zyalt: Блинные скалы, Новая Зеландия Одно из самых удивительных мест в Новой Зеландии - Блинные скалы (Pancake Rocks). Находятся на западном побережье в нацпарке Папароа. Название свое они получили из-за необычной формы. Скалы напоминают стопки сложенных блинчиков. Образовались они 30 миллионов лет назад в результате эрозии известняковых пород. Их слоистость объясняется тем, что породы, из которых сложены “блинные стопки”, имеют различную плотность. Со временем вода и ветер вытесали на поднявшихся из морских глубин скалах затейливую резьбу. Вид на скалы с моей летающей камеры ). Собственно, блинная часть справа находится.