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03 декабря, 11:46

Understanding the backlist (for everything, including books)

It really ought to be called the core list, because it's fundamentally misunderstood as something in the background, an afterthought. The backlist is the stuff you sell long after you've forgotten all the drama that went into making it. Book publishers make more than 90% of their profit from books they published more than six months ago. And yet they put 2% of their effort into promoting and selling those books. Editors, agents, salespeople all focus on what's new, instead of what works. It's more exciting, more fun and more hopeful to seek out and launch new books. It's the culture of many industries, particularly ones that are seen as creative. Nike and General Mills and the local freelancer all generate a bigger contribution with their classic stuff. It turns out that time spent on packaging, promoting and spreading the ideas in the core list is almost always a solid investment. There's a simple explanation: Successful backlist products have crossed the chasm and are selling to the mass market, the largest chunk of any market. These are people who don't buy a lot of books (or sneakers, or cereals) a year, but when they do buy one, they buy a popular one. And so, every year, year after year, millions of copies of Dr. Seuss books are sold. Not because they're new, but because that's what people buy. On the other hand, frontlist products, the new stuff, are bought by a smaller group, the early adopters, the people who like buying new books. These people are easier to reach, probably more fun to work with, but because they seek variety, they rarely all align and buy the same product. [FWIW, the readers of this blog and followers of my work are almost all in this category--focusing on early adopters is a fine way to build a platform for work you care about—it's something that I do on purpose. But it doesn't always make economic sense.] The way for an enterprise to build a core list, then, is to latch onto those frontlist titles that have proven themselves, to persistently and consistently work with the retail channel and the existing customer base to make them into classics—useful, reliable products or services that the masses can rely on. This takes discipline and effort—product creators like me find this difficult. But publishers of all stripes, the organizations that exist to bring new ideas and useful technologies to the world, need to dig in and do this work.  [Expiring today, Saturday: For the first time ever, Linchpin, one of my backlist books, is on promo on the Kindle. It's less than $2.]        

03 декабря, 11:42

Who needs self-driving cars?

Nike Inc. this week begins selling a pricey sneaker with self-tying laces, a high-stakes test of the company’s technology investments and efforts to sell more products directly to consumers. Since its founding, Nike has predominantly been a wholesaler. But as shopping shifts online, Nike is moving to lessen its reliance on retailers. It wants to […] The post Who needs self-driving cars? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

03 декабря, 00:02

Why Adding Skechers (SKX) May Hurt Your Portfolio's Return

Skechers (SKX) is one such stock which should not be part of your portfolio, at least for the time being.

02 декабря, 23:10

7 Highest-Paid Players in the NHL This Season

According to Forbes, the 10 highest-paid NHL players will earn $132 million this season. Here are the 7 individuals leading the way in 2016-17.

02 декабря, 19:07

The Dark Omen of Those Dow 19,000 Hats

Special baseball caps are made to commemorate bull-market milestones, but when the economy crashes, they become painful reminders of the extent of the fall.

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02 декабря, 17:10

Cristiano Ronaldo's $1 Billion Nike Deal Is A Bargain For Sportswear Giant

The Real Madrid star has generated nearly $500 million in media value for Nike so far this year through mentions, photos and videos on his vast social media network which reaches 249 million fans.

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02 декабря, 16:34

Nike начала продавать самозашнуровывающиеся кроссовки за $720

Nike в четверг начала продавать самозашнуровывающиеся кроссовки HyperAdapt стоимостью $720, сообщает The Wall Street Journal. Приобрести их можно только через приложение Nike+ и в новом магазине Nike в Нью-Йорке. Это связано с тем, что компания хочет снизить зависимость от ритейлеров и продавать больше товаров напрямую потребителям. Такие продажи она хочет удвоить до $16 млрд к 2020 г.

02 декабря, 16:03

SL Green Inks Long-Term Lease with Nike; Raises Dividend

SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG), in association with its partner Jeff Sutton, inked a long-term lease with Shoes and Retail Apparel industry major, NIKE, Inc. (NKE) at 650 Fifth Avenue.

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01 декабря, 20:00

Самозашнуровывающиеся кроссовки Nike поступили в продажу

Компания Nike объявила старт продаж кроссовок HyperAdapt 1.0 с самозатягивающимися шнурками, как у Марти Макфлая из фильма «Назад в будущее-2», сообщает Digital Trends.Кроссовки Nike HyperAdapt 1.0 получили уникальную технологию самозашнуровывания. Пользователю достаточно активировать сенсор давлением стопы и шнурки затянутся сами. Сила затяжки регулируется автоматически, в зависимости от условий. Вручную можно корректировать давление с помощью двух кнопок на обуви. Старт продаж Nike обещала запустить самозашнуровывающиеся кроссовки в продажу 28 ноября, но старт состоялся 1 декабря. Купить HyperAdapt 1.0 могут только те, кто оформил предзаказ. Цена одной пары — 720 долларов (48 тысяч по курсу). 20 декабря кроссовки поступят в открытую продажу в фирменных магазинах Nike в Чикаго, Лос-Анджелесе и Сан-Франциско. Дата старта продаж новинки в других странах пока неизвестна.

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01 декабря, 17:32

В продажу поступили кроссовки из фильма «Назад в будущее»

Самозашнуровывающаяся обувь доступна пока только в США

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01 декабря, 17:20

Началась продажа самозашнуровывающихся кроссовок Nike

Флагманские магазины компании Nike в Нью-Йорке начали продажу самозашнуровывающихся кроссовок модели HyperAdapt 1.0. Пока купить обувь могут лишь те, кто предварительно записался. С 20 декабря модель будет также доступна в магазинах фирмы в Чикаго, Лос-Анджелесе и Сан-Франциско.

30 ноября, 19:38

How to Find Stocks Poised to Grow Dividends Now

In this edition of the Dutram Report, we explore the dividend market with the CEO of Reality Shares, Eric Ervin. However, we don't look at any old segment of the yield world, as we focus in on dividend growth investing and what investors need to watch out for in this market segment. Make sure to listen for a guide to this important market segment!

30 ноября, 18:06

Amazon (AMZN) Gearing Up for a Crackdown on Counterfeits

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has intensified its fight against counterfeits and has made this a major goal for 2017.

30 ноября, 17:50

11 причин торговать в декабре

Декабрь – последний месяц уходящего года, но он богат на важные новости. И одна из них - последнее в этом году решение ФРС США по процентной ставке! Само по себе это событие создает большую интригу на рынке! Ждем, что декабрь позволит побить предыдущие рекорды этого года. Узнайте подробнее об 11 причинах торговать в декабре на семинарах, которые пройдут 1 декабря! Зарегистрироваться на семинар в 11:00 МСКЗарегистрироваться на семинар в 18:00 МСК   2 декабря 16:15 мск. Горячая пятница на бирже. Публикация данных по NonfarmPayrolls — одна из ключевых новостей для финансовых рынков. Каждую первую пятницу месяца рынки замирают в преддверии новости, а цены экстремально меняются после её публикации. Эта новость заставляет трепетать даже опытных трейдеров с большим стажем работы. На семинаре мы расскажем о показателе NonfarmPayrolls, разберём примеры последних событий и совершим сделку с фондовым индексом Dow Jones. 7 декабря 17:45 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на канадском долларе. Изменения процентных ставок от национальных банков никогда не остаются вне внимания инвесторов. Это одно из важнейших событий на валютном рынке. 7 декабря будет принято решения по процентной ставке Банком Канады. Канадский доллар будет в центре внимания и подвержен высокой волатильности. Вместе с нашим аналитиком на блиц-семинаре вы сможете определить оптимальное решение для торговли канадской валютой. 8 декабря 15:30 МСК. Сколько вы можете заработать на единой европейской валюте. 8 декабря состоится заседание правления ЕЦБ. Повестка дня – решение по процентным ставкам. Безусловно, подобное событие не может быть вне внимания трейдеров и инвесторов, а, значит, это отличная возможность заработать на европейской валюте с помощью торговых рекомендаций, полученных на блиц-семинаре. 13 декабря 12:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на британском фунте. Индекс потребительских цен в Великобритании традиционно оказывает серьезное воздействие на валютный рынок. Британский фунт будет в центре внимания и подвержен высокой волатильности. Вместе с нашим аналитиком на блиц-семинаре вы сможете определить оптимальное решение для торговли британским фунтом. 14 декабря 18:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на золоте. Изменение процентной ставки ФРС является одним из важнейших событий на финансовых рынках. И одним из наиболее привлекательных инструментов для торговли на фоне этой новости является золото. На блиц-семинаре вы сможете вместе с нашим аналитиком оценить реакцию рынка на новость и принять оптимальное решение для торговли. 16 декабря 17:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на кофе. Сотни миллионов человек на нашей планете начинают свое утро с чашки кофе. Теперь кофе – это не только любимый напиток по утрам, но и ценный финансовый актив. Forex Club расширяет линейку торговых инструментов, добавляя с/х культуры. На данном блиц-семинаре вы познакомитесь с  кофе как с источником прибыли на финансовых рынках. 21 декабря 18:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на нефти марки Brent. 21 декабря ждем публикацию данных о запасах нефти. Нефтяной рынок сам по себе подвержен высокой волатильности в последнее время. Без всяких сомнений, новость такого порядка не может остаться вне поля зрения инвесторов. На нашем блиц семинаре вы сможете получить оптимальные торговые рекомендации для торговли с нефтью. 22 декабря 16:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на фондовом индексе США S&P500. В этот день будет опубликована статистика по ВВП США. Как правило, это оказывает сильное воздействие на курс доллара и финансовые рынки в целом. Мы оценим реакцию индекса S&P500 на эту новость. На блиц-семинаре вы сможете получить объективный анализ новости и оптимальную торговую рекомендацию. 23 декабря 16:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на золоте. Публикация данных по продажам товаров длительного пользования в США может вызвать высокую подвижность котировок американского доллара на рынке. И одним из наиболее привлекательных инструментов для торговли на фоне этой новости является золото. На блиц-семинаре вы сможете вместе с нашим аналитиком оценить реакцию рынка на новость и принять оптимальное решение для торговли. 28 декабря 17:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на акциях Nike. Акции Nike весьма ослабли за последние пару месяцев и грядущий корпоративный отчет даст ответ на вопрос: ждать ли от Nike еще одно стремительного прыжка вверх, или это будет глубокое приседание вниз? Ответ на этот вопрос вы сможете получить на блиц-семинаре Академии. 29 декабря 18:15 мск. Сколько вы можете заработать на нефти марки Brent. 29 декабря ждем публикацию данных о запасах нефти. Нефтяной рынок сам по себе подвержен высокой волатильности в последнее время. Без всяких сомнений, новость такого порядка не может остаться вне поля зрения инвесторов. На нашем блиц семинаре вы сможете получить оптимальные торговые рекомендации для торговли с нефтью.  

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30 ноября, 17:28

DICK'S Sporting: 11th Washington Store Set for Gala Opening

In line with its store expansion strategy, DICK'S Sporting (DKS) announced plans to inaugurate its eleventh store in Washington.

30 ноября, 16:54

Closing The Loop Amidst the Cobblestones of Malmo

We're gathered in the historic city of Malmo, Sweden this week with six innovators and some of the world's leading experts on sustainability to harness the power of collective solutions. "It's amazing to be here in Malmö with this years innovators," says Sofus Midtgaard the Nordic lead on LAUNCH. Midtgaard says creating real impact means "changing business as usual, scaling innovative solutions and preparing the system to adopt them." Toke Sabroe of LAUNCH helping May Al-Karooni, CEO of Globechain prepare her presentation. To help these innovators succeed and scale, LAUNCH partners IKEA Group, Nike Inc., Novozymes, Kvadrat, as well as leading scientists, investors, and Nordic government representatives will team up with the innovators tomorrow for interactive ideation and mentorship sessions. "It is this coming together of unusual partners from across industry and government where the power of LAUNCH lies to truly change the world," says Jeff Hamaoui of LAUNCH. "Innovation pushes us to think about the future we want and what could be, rather than the future that is coming to us," Hamaoui adds. The 6 LAUNCH Nordic innovators share how their ideas can disrupt the system: BioCellection: a biotech solution that uses bacteria to upcycle plastic. Cofounders Miranda Wang and Jeanny Yao are based in the US: BioCellection's mission is to turn plastic pollution into value and to make this technology globally accessible. We are building a platform technology that will convert mixed plastic waste that is currently going to landfills, incinerators, and oceans into new materials and chemicals that can be used in the value chain of a variety of industries, ranging from construction, textiles, to biotechnology. We are upcycling a currently uncaptured material and closing the plastic economy by bridging previously disparate industries and rethinking the question 'plastics to X?' Globechain: a platform to connect businesses, charities and people to reuse unwanted items. Founder and CEO May Al-Karooni is based in the UK: Globechain is a reuse platform that connects businesses to charities and smes to give and take unwanted items within a supply chain network creating a social impact waste audit for its members. To date, it has helped divert over 1,000,000 kilos from landfill, contributed to over 800,000 in savings/revenue to charitable causes and indirectly helped increase employment and up skilling by around 37%. Infinited Fibre Company: a closed loop solution for the textile industry. Founder Petri Alava is based in Finland: We have sustainable chemical technology to produce new natural and affordable textile fibers equal to cotton from textile and cardboard waste normally ending up to landfills. The fashion industry is excited about this unique technology and many major brands are committed to working with us and helping scale us to markets. The potential impact, if we get this to large markets and people all over the world, could be annually savings of 6.5 billion litres of oil and 65 billion litres of fresh water. Kabadiwalla Connect: a system to help cities manage recyclable waste, by leveraging the informal waste ecosystem. Founder Siddhartha Hande is based in India: Urban India's waste management system is in crisis. Every year our cities generate over 68 million tons of waste and currently over 90% is sent to open landfills. Eventually, our company hopes to help divert 70% of this waste by engaging the informal sector -- helping avoid the emissions of 30 million tons of CO2 and resulting in the savings of at least 3.5 billion USD in expenditures for local municipalities every year. Shrilk: a biodegradable alternative to plastic that is inspired by the insect cuticle. Founder Javier Fernandez is based in Singapore: We believe the age of plastic is coming to its end and a new era based on the integration of biology in manufacturing is coming. Similar to how plastic transformed society and the way we consume and produce, biomaterials will do the same in bringing new methods of production addressing the current societal and sustainability needs. Queen of Raw: an online sustainable materials marketplace for suppliers and designers. CEO and Co-Founder Stephanie Benedetto is based in the US: Brands across industries struggle to find sustainable raw materials and factories around the world struggle to sell their excess stock that sits in a warehouse or eventually ends up in a landfill. Queen of Raw provides the bridge and by 2025 can save over 4 billion gallons of water and 2 million pounds of chemicals while keeping over 2 million tons of textiles out of landfills. BioCellection cofounders Miranda Wang and Jeanny Yao honing their pitch ahead of the Nordic Forum December 1. "We are working to make our whole product range more sustainable, including playing an active role in the transition to a circular economy. We are looking forward to meeting this year's innovators with disruptive ideas and fresh mindsets who can help us on this journey. I'm looking forward to help and interact with this year's six selected innovators." Håkan Nordkvist, Head of Sustainability Innovation, IKEA Group You'll be able to meet all six innovators online today via Twitter at 10:30am EST. Using the hashtag #LAUNCHNordic, the innovators will share insights on their work and innovative ways to give products and materials a second life! Also joining them on Twitter will be NASA Astronaut Cady Coleman, a chemist and former United States Air Force officer, Coleman has been on three space missions and spent 180 days in space. She's eager to learn more about the innovations and says "a sustainable earth" will help inform our future journey to Mars. "While living up on our International Space Station for 6 months, I had a special vantage point," Coleman says. "We are all on a journey and whether we have our feet right here on earth, or we are traveling thru space, we have some problem solving to do. We need to be able to recycle our water, take care of our air, and grow food in places that it is not easy to do that. You can see that space exploration and sustainable earth have a lot in common," she adds. NASA Astronaut Cady Coleman It is especially poignant to have Coleman join on Twitter today on the eve of her retirement from NASA! After 33 years, Cady Coleman is beginning her next journey so be sure to join us on #LAUNCHNordic as we congratulate her on a remarkable career. "Being partners in LAUNCH Nordic has been highly inspirational for us. We are looking forward to helping this year's innovators, but we learn a lot from them as well. We look forward to share knowledge and hopefully find meaningful and relevant technologies and innovation suitable for co-investment." Anders Byriel, CEO, Kvadrat LAUNCH's Sofus Midtgaard and Jeff Hamaoui at High Court in Malmo, Sweden. Following the LAUNCH Nordic Forum, innovators will take part in an accelerator program to help them bring their innovations to scale. The LAUNCH Nordic Council participants include: Håkan Nordkvist, Head of Sustainability Innovation, IKEA Group; Anders Byriel, CEO, Kvadrat; Morten Elkjær, Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Mikkel Stenbæk, Deputy Head of Division, Danish EPA; Carin Daal, Head of Department, Region Skåne; and Mike van der Zanden, Sustainability Director, Supply Chain Innovation Europe, Nike. They will provide access to capital, credibility and capacity to help the six innovators take their innovations to scale. Malmo, Sweden where old red brick factories and historic canals take you back to the city's origins in the 16th century. The multimedia team of Bjarke Myrthu, Davar Ardalan, and Longfei Wang preparing for a live digital event at High Court in Malmo, Sweden. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

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30 ноября, 16:53

Названы лучшие изобретения 2016 года

Список самых впечатляющих изобретений 2016 года составил журнал Time. Hi-Tech Mail.Ru отобрал 15 наиболее технологичных из них — эти разработки уже изменили мир, стали частью настоящего и будущего.Воплощенная фантастика Идеи многих изобретений, которые вошли в список Time, позаимствованы из фантастических произведений. Например, самостоятельно зашнуровывающиеся кроссовки Nike показали в фильме «Назад в будущее», и демонстрация их работы стала одним из самых запоминающихся моментов картины. С некоторыми устройствами будущего Hi-Tech Mail.Ru уже знакомил читателей. Так, левитирующая лампа Flyte дебютировала на KickStarter. Крышу из солнечных панелей лично представил основатель Tesla Илон Маск. Что говорить о PlayStation VR или Apple AirPods!  Левитирующая лампа Flyte состоит из подставки и источника света. Внутри подставки и основания – мощные электромагниты, которые и обеспечивают реализацию эффекта левитации. Энергия лампочке передается без проводов за счет создания электромагнитного поля. Стоит 349 долларов (22,6 тыс. рублей).

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29 ноября, 14:09

Крупнейший интернет-магазин объявил войну подделкам

Поддельные продукты стали большой проблемой для Amazon в последние годы: недавно стало известно, что 90% "оригинальных" зарядных устройств для гаджетов Apple в интернет-магазине оказались фейковыми. Однако администрация сервиса решила положить этому конец, пишет Bloomberg. По информации источников, Amazon готовит специальный реестр для борьбы с мошенниками. Для этого представители интернет-магазина планируют сотрудничать с брендами, чтобы те регистрировались на сайте, даже если они не планируют продавать товары на торговой площадке. Когда реестр будет готов, руководство Amazon потребует у торговцев разрешение от бренда, товары которого они собираются продавать. Сообщается, что представители сервиса уже экспериментировали с Nike и другими компаниями над созданием единого реестра, однако в следующем году Amazon намерен привлечь тысячи новых брендов на свою площадку.

29 ноября, 02:54

On the freight train - how do you value Adidas?

I own a position in Adidas - the German athletic shoe and fashion company.Given how well it has performed the position is nowhere near big enough.I wish all my longs had performed this well.But it poses a fairly typical investment problem for which I have no real answers. --BackgroundI will give you a very stylised history of how we got here.Herzogenaurach in Germany is a funny (and small) town quite close to Nuremberg - and a couple of hours drive north of Munich.Once upon a time two brothers started a sports shoe company (and it was successful). The brothers split up and one brother started another sports shoe company.Those companies are Adidas and Puma. And for a long time they considered each other the enemy.Then along came Nike and especially the Michael Jordan partnership and basketball shoes - and exposed Herzo for what it was - an out-of-touch German backwater.Bluntly the fashion path in shoes was from (mostly African American) street wear, to middle-class white street wear to China (where the affluent to a surprising extent mimicked American fashion). And basketball shoes were the path to cool.Sure there were some people I knew who went to Wharton who thought Puma was some kind of American cool - but frankly the Germans just missed out.I went to Herzo to visit these companies because they were super-cheap (and for no other reason).How did I measure cheap?These stocks were just cheap against revenue really. Nike - by far the leader - has a market cap of $85 billion down from well over $100 billion.It has a bit of net cash (reflecting how insanely profitable it is) and about 33 billion of revenue. The price is about 2.5 times sales - but when I went to visit Herzo Nike was trading over three times sales.By contrast Puma (which is essentially in the same business) has a market cap of €3.5 billion and sales of about the same. It is roughly 1 times sales. When I went to visit Puma was trading at about 0.6 times sales.Relative to sales Nike had something more than five times the valuation of Puma. This gap has now closed a lot.But then again Nike was (and remains) insanely profitable and Puma just wasn't.Adidas was somewhere in the middle of these valuations.If Adidas or Puma could sell shoes at something like Nike's effective margin then the German companies would go up. A lot. An insane lot. Like 5 baggers were on offer.But then Adidas and Puma had just missed the boat. And whilst they had decent positions in European fashion (driven by strong positions in what Australians and Americans call "soccer") they had meaningless positions in America and weak positions in China.Now fashion is not an area I have any expertise. This is obvious if you see how I dress.So I was not likely a buyer. Just kicking the tyres.The Puma shop in BeijingBut I still wanted to kick the tyres. After all cheap is fun - and I am a value investor. So I did make a point of walking around Puma and Adidas shops in various locations, and even counting customers vs. say local Nike shops.Most the shops however are like shops on "Fifth Avenue". They are meant as much as anything to be brand advertising rather than to make a profit in their own right. So this is still only marginally useful research.That said I went to the Puma flagship shop in Beijing - and - with a translator - interviewed the staff. I wrote out the impressions in an email to Michael Lämmermann, Puma's CFO - but mostly because I had his email somewhere in the system. Here is that email:I have just come back from a work trip to China. I wanted to leave you impressions of the Puma Shops in Beijing and Shenzhen which I spent some time looking at. Beijing is a disaster area - very badly run by surly staff. This is a fitness company and the staff were fat. Not obese - just pudgy - but they did not look like they used the products and they did not present an image that would sell the product. We asked them (in Chinese) how they were employed - and it was from a local staff pool. They were Beijing locals (more expensive) but that was the end of it. This is a country where it is legal to ask women to send in photos with their job applications and to just choose the prettiest one.  Whatever - fat staff in a sporting good shop is a really bad image - and you need to fix it.Fat and rude staff is just unforgiveable. -- Shenzhen (Dongman district) was better. The kid behind the counter (only one of them - shop was small) looked the part - and was wearing your shoes and looked young and fit. He was also helpful to our (very fluent) Chinese speakers in the group.However he was wearing non-Puma track clothes. Just saying. -- For the record - I have not been convinced enough to buy your shares - but they look cheap. This was just observation.I did not get a reply.And I have never touched Puma stock.--Enter Kasper Rorsted at AdidasAdidas got an activist shareholder - one with a longer-than-average time horizon. This was Groupe Bruxelles Lambert - the holding company of Albert Frere and the late Paul Desmarais. I have watched GBL for some time.GBL are soft-cooperative activists in the Northern European sense. They tend to get what they want cooperatively and slowly - often very slowly.GBL agitated for and got a new CEO at Adidas - a Dane named Kasper Rorsted.We knew him. And I have thought him pretty darn good for a long time. He was the longtime CEO of Henkel (a Munich based industrial glue and consumer goods conglomerate). Henkel was the second biggest stock at the foundation of Bronte Capital - and we have held it continuously. [Regrettably I sold too much on the way up.]Kasper might not walk on water. But he is still in the top league of CEOs. So we bought Adidas stock purely on the speculation. After all Kasper had experience in American consumer goods, was a generally good guy and the stock was cheap enough on a price to sales basis that the upside was large.And the stock has gone up.In all honesty I do not begin to understand what Kasper has done that has made this company better - but it sure shows in the numbers.Here is an extract from the last quarterly presentation - you can find the link here:This is a little hard to see - so I encourage you to download the original. But note really nice sales growth in all jurisdictions and sales growth above 20 percent in both the USA and China. There is clearly a fashion element here. Adidas has a deal with Kanye re shoes. I am so out of popular culture I needed to educate myself as to who Kanye was. (No I am not joking.) But it can't just be Kanye (as the new Michael Jordan no less) because Reebok shoes (also owned by Adidas) are having similar sales volume growth. Whatever - Adidas is now growing explosively. Take your 20 percent volume growth and stick into a valuation spreadsheet and see what you come up with. This sort of net present value worksheet is like Hubble telescope. Tweak the directions of various variables even a tiny bit and you wind up in a different galaxy. So we can't value it. We have no idea.But we own the stock. The position is still not enormous (the original holding was a suck-it-and-see speculation on the new CEO) but the position is getting bigger and bigger because the stock is doing well.I don't want to get off the train. At least until I see something negative. So I am looking for negative. Comments wanted.Sports rights - the new and increased negativeA re-energized Adidas is the best thing ever if you are high profile sports player looking for a shoe-deal. There are now two rich companies wanting to put shoes on your feet and logos on your body. And that means bidding wars.The insane war for the four big brands of Spanish football (Barcelona, Real Madrid, Ronaldo, Messi) is getting just bizarrely expensive. This is great for people with innate ball skills (which is most certainly not me). It is bad for both Adidas and Nike shareholders. I watch in horror.But apart from that I can't (yet) see the negatives. But then I have no fashion sense (at all) so I might be the last person to see.John

28 ноября, 18:38

A Journey To The President-Elect's Manhattan White House

The Manhattan White House, the Secret Service, and the Painted Bikini Lady Cross-posted with TomDispatch.com High above, somewhere behind the black glass façade, President-elect Donald J. Trump was huddled with his inner circle, plotting just how they would “drain the swamp” and remake Washington, perhaps the world. On the street far below, inside a warren of metal fencing surrounded by hefty concrete barriers with “NYPD” emblazoned on them, two middle-aged women were engaged in a signage skirmish.  One held aloft a battered poster that read “Love Trumps Hate”; just a few feet away, the other brandished a smaller slice of cardboard that said “Get Over It.”  I was somewhere in between... and the Secret Service seemed a little unnerved. Trump Tower is many things -- the crown jewel skyscraper in Donald Trump’s real-estate empire, the site of the Trump Organization’s corporate offices, a long-time setting for his reality television show, The Apprentice, and now, as the New York Times describes it, “a 58-story White House in Midtown Manhattan.”  It is also, as noted above its front entrance: “OPEN TO THE PUBLIC 8 AM to 10 PM.” When planning for the tower began in the late 1970s, Trump -- like other developers of the era -- struck a deal with the city of New York.  In order to add extra floors to the building, he agreed to provide amenities for the public, including access to restrooms, an atrium, and two upper-level gardens.     When I arrived at Trump Tower, less than a week after Election Day, the fourth floor garden was roped off, so I proceeded up the glass escalator, made a right, and headed through a door into an outdoor pocket park on the fifth floor terrace.  Just as I entered, a group of Japanese tourists was leaving and, suddenly, I was alone, a solitary figure in a secluded urban oasis. But not for long.  Taking a seat on a silver aluminum chair at a matching table, I listened closely.  It had been a zoo down on Fifth Avenue just minutes before: demonstrators chanting “love trumps hate,” Trump supporters shouting back, traffic noise echoing in the urban canyon, the “whooooop” of police sirens, and a bikini-clad woman in body paint singing in front of the main entrance.  And yet in this rectangular roof garden, so near to America’s new White House-in-waiting, all was placid and peaceful.  There was no hint of the tourist-powered tumult below or of the potentially world-altering political machinations above, just the unrelenting white noise-hum of the HVAC system.      On His Majesty’s Secret Service The Stars and Stripes flies above the actual White House in Washington, D.C.  Inside the Oval Office, it’s joined by another flag -- the seal of the president of the United States emblazoned on a dark blue field.  Here, however, Old Glory flies side by side with slightly tattered black-and-silver Nike swoosh flags waving lazily above the tony storefronts -- Louis Vuitton and Saint Laurent, Burberry and Chanel -- of Manhattan’s 57th Street, and, of course, Trump Tower-tenant Niketown.  That I was standing beneath those flags gazing down at luxe retailers evidently proved too much to bear for those who had been not-so-subtly surveilling me.  Soon a fit, heavily armed man clad in black tactical gear -- what looked to my eye like a Kevlar assault suit and ballistic vest -- joined me in the garden.  “How’s it going?” I asked, but he only nodded, muttered something incomprehensible, and proceeded to eyeball me hard for several minutes as I sat down at a table and scrawled away in my black Moleskine notepad. My new paramilitary pal fit in perfectly with the armed-camp aesthetic that’s blossomed around Trump Tower.  The addition of fences and concrete barriers to already clogged holiday season sidewalks has brought all the joys of the airport security line to Fifth Avenue.  The scores of police officers now stationed around the skyscraper give it the air of a military outpost in a hostile land.  (All at a bargain basement price of $1 million-plus per day for the city of New York.)  Police Commissioner James O’Neill recently reeled off the forces which -- in addition to traffic cops, beat cops, and bomb-sniffing dogs -- now occupy this posh portion of the city: “specialized units, the critical response command, and the strategic response group, as well as plainclothes officers and counter-surveillance teams working hand-in-hand with our intelligence bureau and our partners in the federal government, specifically the Secret Service.”  The armed man in tactical gear who had joined me belonged to the latter agency.  “You one of the reporters from downstairs?” he finally asked.  “Yeah, I’m a reporter,” I replied and then filled the silence that followed by saying, “This has got to be a new one, huh, having a second White House to contend with?” “Yeah, pretty much,” he answered, and then assured me that most visitors seemed disappointed by this park.  “I think everyone comes up thinking there’ll be a little more, but it’s like ‘yeah, okay.’”  Small talk, however, wasn't the agent’s forte, nor did he seem particularly skilled at intimidation, though it was clear enough that he wasn’t thrilled to have this member of the public in this public space.  Luckily for me (and the lost art of conversation), we were soon joined by “Joe.”  An aging bald man of not insignificant girth, Joe appeared to have made it onto the Secret Service’s managerial track.  He didn’t do commando-chic.  He wasn’t decked out in ridiculous SWAT-style regalia, nor did he have myriad accessories affixed to his clothing or a submachine gun strapped to his body.  He wore a nondescript blue suit with a silver and blue pin on his left lapel.  I introduced myself as he took a seat across from me and, in response, though working for a federal agency, he promptly began a very NYPD-style interrogation with a very NYPD-style accent.  “What’s going on, Nick?” he inquired. “Not too much.” “What are you doing? You’re all by yourself here…” “Yeah, I’m all by my lonesome.” “Kinda strange,” he replied in a voice vaguely reminiscent of Robert De Niro eating a salami sandwich. “How so?” “I don’t know. What are you doing? Taking notes?” he asked.  I had reflexively flipped my notepad to a fresh page as I laid it between us on the table and Joe was doing his best to get a glimpse of what I’d written.       I explained that I was a reporter. Joe wanted to know for whom I worked, so I reeled off a list of outlets where I’d been published. He followed up by asking where I was from. I told him and asked him the same. Joe said he was from Queens. “What do you do for a living?” I asked.  “Secret Service.” “I was just saying to your friend here that it must be a real experience having a second White House to contend with.” “Yeah, you could call it that,” he replied, sounding vaguely annoyed. Joe brushed aside my further attempts at small talk in favor of his own ideas about where our conversation should go.  “You got some ID on you?” he asked.  “I do,” I replied, offering nothing more than a long silence. “Can I see it?” “Do you need to?” “If you don’t mind,” he said politely. Since I didn’t, I handed him my driver’s license and a business card. Looking at the former, with a photo of a younger man with a much thicker head of hair, Joe asked his most important question yet: “What did you do to your hair?” “Ah yes,” I replied with a sigh, rubbing my hand over my thinned-out locks. “It’s actually what my hair did to me.”  He gestured to his own follically challenged head and said, “I remember those days.” Trump Tower’s Public Private Parts Joe asked if there was anything he could do for me, so I wasn’t bashful. I told him that I wanted to know what his job was like -- what it takes to protect President-elect Donald Trump and his soon-to-be second White House. “You do different things. Long hours.  Nothing out of the ordinary. Probably the same as you,” he said. I told him I really doubted that and kept up my reverse interrogation. “Other than talking to me, what did you do today?” I asked.  “I dunno,” he responded. “Look around. Security. We’re Secret Service.” It was, he assured me, a boring job.  “Come on,” I said. “There’s got to be a lot of challenges to securing a place like this. You’ve got open public spaces just like this one.” There are, in fact, more than 500 privately owned public spaces, or POPS, similar to this landscaped terrace, all over the city.  By adding the gardens, atrium, and other amenities way back when, Trump was able to add about 20 extra floors to this building, a deal worth at least $500 million today, according to the New York Times.  And in the post-election era, Trump Tower now boasts a new, one-of-a-kind amenity.  The skies above it have been declared “national defense airspace” by the Federal Aviation Administration.  “The United States government may use deadly force against the airborne aircraft, if it is determined that the aircraft poses an imminent security threat,” the agency warned in a recent notice to pilots.  Back on the fifth floor, a metal plaque mounted on an exterior wall lays out the stipulations of the POPs agreement, namely that this “public garden” is to have nine large trees, four small trees, 148 seats, including 84 moveable chairs, and 21 tables.  None of the trees looked particularly large.  By my count the terrace was also missing three tables -- a type available online starting at $42.99 -- and about 20 chairs, though some were stacked out of view and, of course, just two were needed at the moment since Mr. Tactical Gear remained standing, a short distance away, the whole time. This tiny secluded park seemed a world away from the circus below, the snarl of barricades outside the building, the tourists taking selfies with the big brassy “Trump Tower” sign in the background, and the heavily armed counterterror cops standing guard near the revolving door entrance. I remarked on this massive NYPD presence on the streets. “It’s their city,” Joe replied and quickly changed topics, asking, “So business is good?” “No, business is not too good. I should have picked a different profession,” I responded and asked if the Secret Service was hiring. Joe told me they were and explained what they looked for in an agent: a clean record, college degree, “law experience.” It made me reflect upon the not-so-clean record of that agency in the Obama years, a period during which its agents were repeatedly cited for gaffes, as when a fence-jumper made it all the way to the East Room of the White House, and outrageous behavior, including a prostitution scandal involving agents preparing the way for a presidential visit to Colombia.  “What did you do before the Secret Service?” I inquired. Joe told me that he’d been a cop. At that point, he gave his black-clad compatriot the high sign and the younger man left the garden.  “See, I’m no threat,” I assured him. Joe nodded and said he now understood the allure of the tiny park. Sensing that he was eager to end the interrogation I had turned on its head, I began peppering him with another round of questions.  Instead of answering, he said, “Yeah, so anyway, Nick, I’ll leave you here,” and then offered me a piece of parting advice -- perhaps one that no Secret Service agent protecting a past president-elect has ever had occasion to utter, perhaps one that suggests he’s on the same wavelength as the incoming commander-in-chief, a man with a penchant for ogling women (to say nothing of bragging about sexually assaulting them). “You should come downstairs,” Joe advised, his eyes widening, a large grin spreading across his face as his voice grew animated for the first time. “There was a lady in a bikini with a painted body!” Joe walked off and, just like that, I was alone again, listening to the dull hum of the HVAC, seated in the dying light of the late afternoon.  A short time later, on my way out of the park, I passed the Secret Service agent in tactical gear. “I think you’re the one that found the most entertainment out here all day,” he said, clearly trying to make sense of why anyone would spend his time sitting in an empty park, scribbling in a notebook. I mentioned something about sketching out the scene, but more than that, I was attempting to soak in the atmosphere, capture a feeling, grapple with the uncertain future taking shape on the chaotic avenue below and high above our heads in Manhattan’s very own gilt White House.  I was seeking a preview, you might say, of Donald Trump’s America.     Descending the switchback escalators, I found myself gazing at the lobby where a scrum of reporters stood waiting for golden elevator doors to open, potentially disgorging a Trump family member or some other person hoping to serve at the pleasure of the next president. Behind me water cascaded several stories down a pink marble wall, an overblown monument to a bygone age of excess.  Ahead of me, glass cases filled with Trump/Pence 2016 T-shirts, colognes with the monikers “Empire” and “Success,” the iconic red “Make America Great Again” one-size-fits-all baseball cap, stuffed animals, and other tchotchkes stood next to an overflowing gilded garbage can.  Heading for the door, I thought about all of this and Joe and his commando-chic colleague and Trump’s deserted private-public park, and the army of cops, the metal barricades, and the circus that awaited me on the street.  I felt I’d truly been given some hint of the future, a whisper of what awaits. I also felt certain I’d be returning to Trump Tower -- and soon. Nick Turse is the managing editor of TomDispatch, a fellow at the Nation Institute, and a contributing writer for the Intercept. His book Tomorrow's Battlefield: U.S. Proxy Wars and Secret Ops in Africa recently received an American Book Award. His latest book is Next Time They’ll Come to Count the Dead: War and Survival in South Sudan. His website is NickTurse.com. Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest Dispatch Book, Nick Turse’s Next Time They’ll Come to Count the Dead, and Tom Engelhardt's latest book, Shadow Government: Surveillance, Secret Wars, and a Global Security State in a Single-Superpower World. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

30 марта 2015, 06:48

Оценка состояния американских компаний по секторам

Несколько модифицировал выборку американских компаний, чтобы охватить вообще все существующие в природе американские нефинансовые компании с годовой выручкой не менее 1 млрд долл, которые предоставляют публичные отчеты. Глобальные тенденции не изменились, но выборка стала более репрезентативной. По крайней мере, это покажет куда все движется.Определенные сложности с календарной синхронизацией, т.к среди почти 1 тыс компаний более, чем достаточно компаний с нестандартной формой предоставления отчетов, где квартал заканчивается не на привычные март, июнь, сентябрь и декабрь, а со смещением месяц или два. Более того, у многих уже заканчивается 2015 финансовый год, тогда как синхронизация в настоящий момент должна проводиться на конец 2014 календарного. Некорректная синхронизация может влиять на кривую финансовых показателей. Определенный порядок удалось навести, так что уточненные данные по крупнейшим американским компаниямКапитализация компаний выходит за грань разумного. На графиках ниже – это не индекс S&P 500, а долларовая суммарная капитализация выбранных 980 компаний из нефин.сектора США в сравнении с фундаментальными показателями.Капитализация достигает 16.5 трлн долл под восторженные возгласы об экономическом чуде и превосходных финансовых показателей компаний. Сравнение с ключевыми показателями свидетельствует об обратном.Коэффициент оборачиваемости активов (asset turnover) начал резко ухудшаться сразу, как только рынок приступил к неуправляемому расширению (с конца 2011). Текущее значение минимальное за 10 лет.Отдача на капитал (ROE %) остается стабильной с 2011 с тенденцией на снижение.Чистая прибыль в млрд долл. Прирост прибыли с конца 2011 всего 77 млрд или менее 10%По сути, весь прирост обеспечили всего 4 отрасли из 34.Это технологические отрасли, фармацевтика и медиа. Что касается медиа то в основном это связано с техническим моментом. Из-за перманентных реструктуризации и связанными с этим убытками, медиа сектор вышел в прибыль, тем самым дифференциал показал столь сильный всплеск прибыли, хотя сама по себе отрасль на грани перманентных убытков (как телекомы).Отрицательный вклад у нефтегаза, автопрома и сырьевых компаний.Выручка с 2011 выросла на 10%, что с небольшой погрешностью укладывается в официальный уровень долларовой инфляции за этот период. Т.е. в реальном выражении роста нет.Кто обеспечил прирост выручки и насколько?Почти на 90% прирост обеспечили 5 отраслей – это ритейлеры различного типа, нефтесервисные компании (за счет обеспечения и обслуживания растущей добычи нефти в США), сектор медицинских услуг и технологическая отрасль. Негативный вклад в основном у нефтегазовых компаний.Емкость секторов. Какой вклад каждого сектора в формирование общего результата?Ключевые финансовые и балансовые показатели компаний из США за последние 10 лет для оценки отраслевых сдвигов и динамикиВ целом относительно неплохо смотрятся три сектора – компании из сектора услуг потребительского назначения, здравоохранение и технологический сектор.Consumer Services - это ритейл, медиа, туризм, отели, рестораны и им подобные услуги. Выручка стабильно растет преимущественно за счет инфляционной составляющей, но устойчивость к кризисным явлениям достаточно высокая.  Чистая маржа самая низкая, прибыль в целом стагнирует.Health Care - здравоохранение, мед.услуги. Тут все понятно. Сектор практически не реагирует на кризисы, выручка растет плавно по заданному тренду из-за повышения проникновения медицины в структуре экономики США, тенденции на старение населения, реформы здравоохранения и роста цен на мед.услуги. Однако, прибыль волатильна, маржинальность имеет тенденцию на снижение.Хуже всего нефтегаз и сырьевые компании. В неустойчивом положении пром.сектор коммерческого назначения и телекомы, которые вечно в убытках. Также есть признаки на негативные тенденции в секторе Consumer Goods - т.е. производство товаров потребительского назначения (Ford, Nike, Coca Cola).Оценка финансовых коэффициентов.ПродолжениеКапитализация компаний вышла на запредельные уровни по историческим меркам, а динамика рынка противоречит фундаментальным показателям, как в абсолютном выражении, так и в относительном.Чистая прибыль в млрд долл в квартальной разбивке по нефинансовым секторам для 980 американских компаний.Выручка в млрд долл в квартальной разбивке по нефинансовым секторам для 980 американских компанийКапитализация в млрд долл в квартальной разбивке по нефинансовым секторам для 980 американских компанийОборачиваемость активов в %Отдача на капиталЧистая маржа в %Источник данных: Thomson Reuters Datastream на основе публичных отчетов компаний. Компиляция, синхронизация и интепретация с моей стороны.