Индекс деловой активности в производственном секторе Японии от Nikkei в марте составил 52,6 пункта после роста в феврале до 53,3. Несмотря на снижение, индекс остается выше значения 50, которое разделяет пессимистов от оптимистов. В отчете Nikkei отмечено, производственный сектор в Японии продолжает расширяться в марте, хотя и более медленными темпами. Производство, новые заказы, новые экспортные заказы, занятость, цены на сырье и запасы готовой продукции демонстрируют рост. Старший экономист IHS Markit Пол Смит отмечает, несмотря на то, что данные свидетельствуют о более медленной скорости расширения производственного индекса в марте, последние данные PMI снова указываю, что японская производственная экономика расширяется. Действительно, данные согласуются с промышленным производством расширяется на базовой скорости тренда чуть ниже 2,0%. Новые заказы остаются на твердой территории роста, доходы, казалось бы, получают поддержку от слабой иены, однако, это происходит за счет роста затрат на покупку. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei +43.93 19085.31 +0.23% TOPIX +0.21 1530.41 +0.01% Hang Seng +7.29 24327.70 +0.03% CSI 300 +11.93 3461.98 +0.35% Euro Stoxx 50 +31.48 3452.18 +0.92% FTSE 100 +15.99 7340.71 +0.22% DAX +135.56 12039.68 +1.14% CAC 40 +38.06 5032.76 +0.76% DJIA -4.72 20656.58 -0.02% S&P 500 -2.49 2345.96 -0.11% NASDAQ -3.95 5817.69 -0.07% S&P/TSX +85.15 15433.61 +0.55% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,346.25 (+0.16%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.07% до уровня 5,369.75. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют преимущественно позитивную динамику. Nikkei 19,085.31 +43.93 +0.23% Hang Seng 24,327.70 +7.29 +0.03% Shanghai 3,248.91 +3.69 +0.11% FTSE 7,320.01 -4.71 -0.06% CAC 5,001.99 +7.29 +0.15% DAX 11,945.59 +41.47 +0.35% Майские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $48.19 за баррель (+0.31%) Золото торгуется по $1,250.30 за унцию (+0.05%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения, так как инвесторы ожидают голосования по законопроекту о здравоохранении в США - первому знаменательному политическому тесту для президента Дональда Трампа. Трамп и республиканцы заявили в среду, что у них достаточно голосов, чтобы отменить закон о здравоохранении, принятый Обамой. Любые сложности в процессе отмены реформы могут быть восприняты как сигнал о недоверии Конгресса к президенту Трампу и усилят вероятность возможной неудачи обещанных администрацией США налоговой реформы и увеличения инфраструктурных расходов, которые должны подстегнуть экономический рост в стране, Это, в свою очередь, может оказать понижательное давление на американский фондовый рынок, так как именно ожидания стимулирующих мер способствовали повышению индексов до рекордных максимумов. Голосование в Конгрессе должно состояться сегодня вечером по восточно-американскому времени. В фокусе внимания также находится отчет Министерства труда, который показал, что первичные обращения за пособием по безработице на прошлой неделе выросли до 258 тыс., тогда как аналитики прогнозировали 240 тыс. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные по продажам новостроек в США (14:00 GMT), а также выступление члена FOMC Нила Кашкари (16:30 GMT).Источник: FxTeam
Тем не менее данные по отдельных странам отражают трудности, с которыми сталкивается крупнейший производитель нефти ОПЕК. Так, доля Саудовской Аравии на рынке Китая составила 13,6% в 2016 г., что на 1,7 пункта меньше, чем годом ранее. При этом доля на рынке Индии сократилась на 0,2 пункта до 19,5%.
Как сообщает японское издание Nikkei Business Publications, в феврале японская компания Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp (NTT) на домашнем мероприятии NTT R&D Forum 2017 представила технологию, которая без сложных манипуляций автоматически следит за диетой человека. Сегодня для оценки калорийности пищи используются либо записи вручную (как вариант — извлечение информации из баз данных), либо загружаются фотографии блюда для анализа калорийности в облачных сервисах, либо используются смарт-устройства (весы, тарелки и прочее). Во всех известных случаях требуются определённые действия пользователя, что несколько неудобно. Предложенная компанией NTT технология определения блюд свободна от этих недостатков и работает в фоновом (автоматическом) режиме. Технология «Dietary Content Recognition Technology» (по-русски, технология распознавания содержимого рациона) опирается на обычные датчики фитнес-браслетов, такие как акселерометры, гироскопы и другие. Дело в том, что браслет на руке пользователя совершает достаточно повторяющиеся движения в воздухе в зависимости от вида принимаемой пищи. Так, предложенный NTT алгоритм распознавания жестов однозначно определяет, ест человек хлеб, суши, лапшу, стейк или воспользовался соусом. Данные о приёме пищи автоматически вносятся в базу данных и дают возможность вести учёт приёма пищи (калорий) без участия человека.
European and Asian stocks were modestly in the green, with U.S. futures higher, before a critical procedural vote on a Republican health-care bill to repeal Obamacare, while Janet Yellen is set to speak in Washington at 8:45am. S&P 500 Index futures were 3 points in the green as of 6:45am ET as European shares edged higher, underpinned by the first gains for miners and health care stocks all week. Bonds of periphery countries gained before the European Central Bank’s last dose of free long-term cash through the final round of Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations, which moments ago was announced at €233.5BN from 474 bidders, nearly double the €125BN expected. The yen gained for an eighth day, the longest winning streak in six years. As Bloomberg notes, calm returned to the market after Tuesday’s selloff sparked by positioning ahead of the Republican health-care bill, set for a vote in Congress around 7pm ET on Thursday, which the market appears confident will pass despite numerous holdouts remaining into the 11th hour. Any setback could delay enactment of tax cuts and spending increases, the prospects for which have underpinned the rally in risk assets since Trump’s election in November. Below is a good summary of what is at stake from DB's Jim Reid: Often in life and indeed in markets there are forks in the road with the knock-on impact and ultimate outcomes likely to be quite different depending on the initial path taken. Today's vote on AHCA in the House could be such an event. This might be slightly over dramatising things but it will give us big clues as to how revolutionary a Trump administration can be. If in the honeymoon period of the new administration they can't pass a bill replacing Obamacare (very unpopular with the GOP) then it clearly will dramatically reduce expectations of wider tax reform. Pass it and Trump trades may get back some of their recent lost energy. The update yesterday was that more than 25 members of the Freedom Caucus still remain opposed to the bill, according to FT, which is enough to mean that there would be insufficient votes to pass (the general assumption is more 20 dissenters will result in it failing). This followed a day of extensive lobbying from Trump and House speaker Paul Ryan yesterday. According to multiple news reports, the suggestion however is that talks are still going on behind the scenes including discussions over revisions to the “essential benefits” requirements which appears to be the sticking point. Indeed the House Freedom Caucus is expected to come to the White House today prior to the vote and Mark Meadows, chair of the Caucus, said that “I’m very encouraged that we might be seeing some real headway” and also that “we are working very diligently tonight to try and get there”. So things are hanging in the balance and its set up to be an interesting day. While it’s clear that a loss for Trump would be a major legislative defeat with likely big ramifications for policies further down the line, what is less clear is what happens in the days following today’s vote if it fails and whether Trump would be prepared to go away and make the changes to allow the bill to pass in another vote. Indeed White House press secretary Sean Spicer offered zero hints on this front by saying that “there is no plan B” and instead “there’s a plan A and a plan A and we’re gonna get this done”. When asked if he would keep on pushing healthcare in the event of the House not passing the bill, President Trump also replied saying that he would “see what happens”. So that only adds to the uncertainty. Trump and Republican leaders of the House of Representatives have said they were making progress in their efforts to win over conservative Republicans who have demanded changes to the legislation. The vote on the bill, Trump's first major legislation since he took office, is expected later on Thursday. Perhaps only a successful passage of the vote provides some hope for a return to the Trump reflation trade, which has been almost entirely unwound by now, can come back: “The reflation rally in the U.S. stock markets appeared to have topped in March, causing a pullback after four months of unprecedented rise,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a market analyst at London Capital Group Ltd., wrote in a note. “Trump’s failure to push his plans through Congress dented investors’ appetite. Any positive news from today’s vote has the potential to revive the stock bulls.” "If he can't push through the bill, it would further damage stocks. It also raises the risk of his other policies, like tax cuts, being delayed," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. So heading into today's critical vote, stocks and sterling hold their ground as markets took the latest European terror attack, this time in London, one of the world's financial capitals, largely in their stride. The FTSEurofirst 300 barely budged as London, Frankfurt and Paris started flat and the pound fared better than most as the dollar began to muscle higher again in the currency markets. The history of these attacks, including those in France, Germany and Belgium last year as well those in London and Madrid more than 10 years ago, show little lasting impact on economic confidence or financial markets in isolation. Overnight in Asia MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei closed 0.2 percent higher, as a weaker yen offset a political scandal over the relationship of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife with a Japanese nationalist education group that bought state-owned land. China's CSI 300 rose early on hopes that index compiler MSCI may include A-shares in its indices, but those gains were lost as money began flowing out of the mainland market through link to the Hong Kong exchange. Wall Street futures were pointing to modest gains later too. On Wednesday the Nasdaq .IXIC jumped 0.5 percent and the S&P 500 closed 0.2 percent higher, while the Dow Jones was flat, after all three touched their lowest levels in about five weeks earlier in the session. [.N] Having weakened as much as 0.4 percent after news of the London attack which killed five, sterling held steady overnight and then climbed swiftly above $1.25 after more-resilient-than-expected UK retail sales data The dollar was also creeping higher again with attention firmly on Donald Trump's first significant U.S. policy test, as he looks to gets a healthcare bill passed in U.S. congress. "What we are getting this week is a questioning of how much of the risk rally is predicated on future Trump policy," said Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. "There are concerns that this vote (on healthcare reform) will be a litmus test of how much fiscal expansion he can get through." After losing 3.5 percent in the past 10 days, the dollar was roughly steady at 111.19 yen. It gained 0.1 percent to $1.0786 per euro and up 0.15 percent against the basket of currencies used to measure its broader strength. The euro and euro zone bond markets' focus was also on what the European Central Bank hopes will be its last offering of cheap, 3-year 'TLTRO' funding, once its main crisis fighting tool, and which today the ECB announced would amount to €233.5 billion. Yields on Portuguese, Spanish and Italian debt fell 1-3 basis points ahead of the handout, continuing along with French bonds to close the spread on German Bunds. The bigger question for markets though is will it matter once these kinds of ECB loans are no longer available to banks. From now on they will only be able to get either 1-week or 3-month loans from Frankfurt. "Overall I do not think the absence of further longer-term operations will make much of a difference," said Francesco Papadia, the former head of ECB market operations who launched the offerings back in late 2011. "LTROs (long term lending operations) are among the easiest measures to take, much easier than QE, so if there was a need for them the ECB Governing Council would not have too much of a problem in reinstating them." With several major currency pairs steadying after a week of losses for the dollar, the biggest mover of the day was Australia's dollar, down half a percent on the back of nerves in China's money market and a slump in prices for its iron ore exports. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.7046 after its central bank held interest rates at a record low 1.75 percent, and reiterated it would remain there for a "considerable" period of time. In commodities markets, gold dipped lower and oil prices rebounded, after touching their lowest level since November overnight on data that showed U.S. inventories, already at a record high, grew by far more than forecast. Analysts said oil had found technical support and was being pushed up as traders took new long positions after the overnight low, but supply concerns kept the gains in check. U.S. crude CLc1 added 0.75 percent to $48.40 a barrel and global benchmark Brent LCOc1 climbed 0.7 percent to $50.99. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Subdued affair in equity and bond markets, while focus in the latter will be the final TLTRO 2 release. GBP pops higher on the back of UK retail sales beating expectations Looking ahead, highlights include comments from Fed's Yellen, Kashkari and Kaplan as well as US Weekly Jobless data. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,346.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 374.6 MXAP up 0.06% to 147.40 MXAPJ up 0.1% to 477.93 Nikkei up 0.2% to 19,085.31 Topix up 0.01% to 1,530.41 Hang Seng Index up 0.03% to 24,327.70 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,248.55 Sensex up 0.3% to 29,262.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,707.95 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,172.72 German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.407% Euro down 0.1% to 1.0785 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.4% to $50.82/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 5.7 bps to 2.263% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 1.705% Brent Futures up 0.4% to $50.82/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,247.51 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 99.78 Top Overnight News Trump Discusses Changes to Health Bill to Win Over Conservatives U.K. Police: Seven Arrested in Westminster Terror Probe Apple Acquires Productivity App Workflow for Undisclosed Sum Arbitrage for U.S. Gas to Europe and Asia ‘Wide-Open’: Citi Amazon Plans to Enter Online Retail of Food in India, Badal Says Google Ad Crisis Spreads as Biggest Marketers Halt Spending Glaxo, Regeneron, Biobank Plan Largest Gene-Sequencing Program Microsoft, Toyota Form Patent Pact on Connected-Car Technologies Energy Transfer Seeks to Place Trans-Pecos Gas Line in Service Asian equities traded mostly higher after the positive Wall St. close where tech names outperformed and US markets found reprieve from Tuesday's worst performance YTD. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was underpinned by strength in the utilities and energy sectors, while Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was kept afloat as USD/JPY recouped losses. Elsewhere, earnings were in focus in China with financials supported after Ping An Insurance reported its FY net rose by 15% Y/Y. However, the Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) pared gains amid weakness in telecoms and after a lacklustre liquidity operation by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs edged marginally higher despite the recovery of sentiment in Japan, with prices supported amid the BoJ presence in the market under its bond buying programme. PBoC injected CNY 10bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 10bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bIn in 28-day reverse repos. Top Asian News MSCI Pares Down China Stock Inclusion Proposal as Hurdles Remain India Said to Plan Using New Tool From April to Manage Cash Templeton Said to Buy About $1.2 Billion of Indian Bonds Tencent-Led Funding Round Said to Value Kuaishou at Around $3b Activist Hedge Fund Effissimo Becomes Toshiba’s Top Shareholder India Tribunal Approves Vedanta, Cairn India Merger; Stocks Rise Toyota Industries to Buy Netherlands’ Vanderlande for EU1.16b TonenGeneral, Kansai Elec. Abandon Coal Plant Project Top Buffalo Meat Exporter on Edge Amid Pledge to Cut Slaughter It thas been a quiet start to trading in European bourses, where large moves are unlikely to happen ahead of today's House vote on Obamacare repeal. Although, the notable mover this morning has been Next with shares higher by over 8% after their earnings update subsequently boosting related names. The price rise came despite a 3.8% annual fall in profits, however, the Co. did maintain guidance it issued in its January trading statement for the 2017-18 year - full price sales, at constant currency, while weakness in earnings would have been priced in given the gloomy outlook they announced over Christmas. In credit markets, price action has also been somewhat muted with the German benchmark up a modest 8 ticks as participants await the final TLTRO. Outperformance has been seen in BTPs as the GER-ITA spread tightening some 3.5bps. Top European News ECB Ending Four-Year Loans Makes Banks Focus on Stimulus Exit Banks Trimming Compliance Staff as $321 Billion in Fines Abate Trump’s Associates May Have Coordinated With Russians: CNN Vienna Insurance Outperforms; Baader-Helvea Flags Valuation Avoid ‘Expensive’ German Stocks, Deutsche Bank Recommends U.K. Police Revise Death Toll of London Attack Down to Four Nets Stuck With Private Equity Overhang Longer After Share Slide Intesa Has Rerating Potential, ‘Premium’ Dividend Safe: Barclays Next Warns of Tough Year Ahead as Britons Cut Clothing Outlays Danish Government Reaches North Sea Tax Deal With Maersk In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was 0.1 percent higher, rising the first time in seven days. The euro was down by 0.2 percent at $1.0778, following a 0.1 percent drop.the major movers on the week continue to grab the headlines this morning, and starting with the Pound, the UK retail sales data show the inflationary impact of the heavy GBP losses seen post Brexit are not having a detrimental effect — yet. Feb's rise of 1.4% was a full 1% above consensus expectations, and this naturally put a fresh bid under Sterling, but the Cable move through is proving hard fought, with a move to 1.2527 swiftly reversed. EUR/GBP also stopped just shy of 0.8600, but with Article 50 set to be triggered next week, it is no surprise to see buyers taking profit on what are moderate moves as yet. In commodities, gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,246.06, after a six-day advance that totaled 4.2 percent. WTI Crude added 0.8 percent to $48.41 a barrel on speculation record U.S. crude stockpiles that have undermined OPEC’s output cuts may finally be set to shrink. Supply (and demand) issues are continually lurking in the background in all commodity classes with the exception of precious metals. Gold has hit levels just above USD1250 but failed to close above here — represents a key target/resistance levels. The rise in US treasuries alongside the fall in stocks/risk off have had a combined positive impact, but this may stabilise near term. Base metals prices have been under scrutiny given levels attained on future demand expectations, with iron ore price tumbling as China usage/stockpiles are brought to question — again. Copper and Nickel prices have been tempered by disruptions at some of the world's leading mines, but union leaders at Escondida set for a fresh meeting with BHP heads. Oil prices have again stabilised after fresh lows tested in WTI and Brent — the latter dipping under USD50.00. Pressure unlikely to subside as doubts over an agreement extension continue. Inventory levels unlikely to be moderated without this. Looking at today’s calendar, this morning in Europe we get the last 4y ECB TLTRO II auction which is being highlighted as worth keeping an eye on for further signs of take-up. Bloomberg consensus is running at €110bn. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll get the latest weekly initial jobless claims print along with new home sales data in February and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey for March. Away from the data, as mentioned earlier Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak at 8:45am while Kashkari (at 1pm ET) and Kaplan (at 7pm GMT) are also scheduled today. BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent is also due to speak this morning. The biggest event though for markets will likely be the House vote concerning the AHCA. Timing for this is still to be confirmed. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 241,000; Continuing Claims, est. 2.04m, prior 2.03m 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51 10am: New Home Sales, est. 564,000, prior 555,000; New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.62%, prior 3.7% 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 14, prior 14 Central Banks 8:45am: Fed’s Yellen Speaks at Community Development Conference 1pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks on U.S. Education Outcomes in D.C. 7pm: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan Speaks on Economy in Chicago DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Often in life and indeed in markets there are forks in the road with the knock-on impact and ultimate outcomes likely to be quite different depending on the initial path taken. Today's vote on AHCA in the House could be such an event. This might be slightly over dramatising things but it will give us big clues as to how revolutionary a Trump administration can be. If in the honeymoon period of the new administration they can't pass a bill replacing Obamacare (very unpopular with the GOP) then it clearly will dramatically reduce expectations of wider tax reform. Pass it and Trump trades may get back some of their recent lost energy. The update yesterday was that more than 25 members of the Freedom Caucus still remain opposed to the bill, according to FT, which is enough to mean that there would be insufficient votes to pass (the general assumption is more 20 dissenters will result in it failing). This followed a day of extensive lobbying from Trump and House speaker Paul Ryan yesterday. According to multiple news reports, the suggestion however is that talks are still going on behind the scenes including discussions over revisions to the “essential benefits” requirements which appears to be the sticking point. Indeed the House Freedom Caucus is expected to come to the White House today prior to the vote and Mark Meadows, chair of the Caucus, said that “I’m very encouraged that we might be seeing some real headway” and also that “we are working very diligently tonight to try and get there”. So things are hanging in the balance and its set up to be an interesting day. While it’s clear that a loss for Trump would be a major legislative defeat with likely big ramifications for policies further down the line, what is less clear is what happens in the days following today’s vote if it fails and whether Trump would be prepared to go away and make the changes to allow the bill to pass in another vote. Indeed White House press secretary Sean Spicer offered zero hints on this front by saying that “there is no plan B” and instead “there’s a plan A and a plan A and we’re gonna get this done”. When asked if he would keep on pushing healthcare in the event of the House not passing the bill, President Trump also replied saying that he would “see what happens”. So that only adds to the uncertainty. As we mentioned yesterday our US economists place a low probability on the bill being blocked and instead their base case remains for it being passed. This is primarily based on their view that since much of the Trump agenda rests on the ability of the Republicans to pass healthcare reform, its failure would seriously dent the party’s political capital and imperil other legislative actions. They also believe that Senate opposition should lessen should the House pass the bill given it should become easier for more moderate Republican senators to support. It is worth noting though that the timeframe for all this is fairly tight. The effective deadline for the legislation to be passed by both chambers of Congress is April 28th. However with Congress effectively not in session from April 6th to April 24th there will only be four days to pass FY2017 budget legislation before the current continuing resolution expires. Otherwise the government could potentially shut down. This means that they expect the contours of the AHCA to take shape before April 6th. Markets in the US are set to go into the vote in a slightly better mood following the steep selloff on Tuesday. While still well down over 2 days, the S&P 500 did close up +0.19% last night and so putting an end to that run of four consecutive down days. US Banks (-0.24%) did finish a bit weaker, not helped by a further decline for Treasury yields with the 10y (-1.3bps) down for the fourth day in a row and to a new three week low of 2.406%. That had a greater supporting impact on credit indices though with CDX IG closing 1.3bps tighter and completely reversing Tuesday’s move wider. The same can’t be said for US HY energy cash spreads however which were another 10bps wider yesterday at 486bps, despite a bit of bounce for WTI back above $48/bbl. Spreads have now widened for 12 of the last 14 sessions and are at 3-month wides again. These moves are certainly worth keeping an eye on. Meanwhile equity markets in Europe had previously finished a bit softer likely also reflecting some catch up from the prior US session. The Stoxx 600 closed -0.44% while in the UK the FTSE 100 ended -0.73% following the tragic attacks outside UK Parliament which authorities are treating as a terror attack. Sterling was weaker in the aftermath but reversed losses into the close to finish little changed. Before we look at the latest in Asia this morning its worth highlighting that Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak at lunchtime today (12.45pm GMT to be precise). She will speak at a community development research conference in Washington so it remains to be seen if she addresses monetary policy at all, but nevertheless it is worth keeping an eye on. Refreshing our screens now, markets in Asia have largely followed the lead from the US with most major bourses posting small gains. The Nikkei (+0.12%), Hang Seng (+0.35%), Shanghai Comp (+0.31%), Kospi (+0.32%) and ASX (+0.29%) are amongst those higher. US equity index futures are posting similar gains while the Yen and Gold have both eased back about -0.20%. Moving on. It’s flown under the radar a little recently given the focus on France but the latest polls in Italy are hinting at some rising support for the anti-establishment 5-Star movement. Indeed an Ipsos poll in the Corriere della Sera newspaper puts the 5-Star at 32.3% and 5.5% ahead of the Democratic Party at 26.8%. That is the highest reading we can find for the 5-Star movement. Other polls in recent days run by Demopolis, IPR and EMG show the margin lead for 5-Star at between 3% and 7% over the Democratic Party with the overall percentage for 5-Star between 30% and 31%. The vast majority of polls run in February showed the Democrats as holding a marginal lead. Unsurprisingly there are plenty of question marks about 5-Star actually being able to create a government given its aversion to forging coalitions but the moves in the polls are worth keeping an eye on. Staying with politics, yesterday’s notable Brexit update was the comments from EU negotiator Michel Barnier. He said in a meeting of EU commissioners that there will be no talks on a future deal without agreement on the Brexit bill which runs against the UK government’s strategy of conducting talks on the exit and a deal at the same time. He also said that a transitional deal is possible but that it will still be governed by European law. Some interesting early signs then of the EU’s negotiating stance. Away from politics, yesterday’s data was once again fairly second tier in nature and had little impact on markets. There was little to note in Europe while in the US existing home sales were reported as falling -3.7% mom in February and a bit more than expected. The FHFA house price index was also flat in January versus consensus expectations for a +0.4% mom rise. Before we wrap up, yesterday our Global Economics Perspectives team published their latest note looking at how the US economy is performing in Q1. They argue that whilst indicators are suggesting that another Q1 growth disappointment is possible, there are five reasons why it should not be feared: (1) GDP growth is likely to be understated due to lingering issues with seasonal adjustment, perhaps depressing reported growth by 1pp; (2) the weak growth signal from hard data is inconsistent with more supportive indications from surveys, sentiment data, and financial conditions; (3) even if real GDP growth slows, private domestic demand growth looks solid, with capex and housing improving; (4) slowing real consumer spending growth is driven in part by an uptick in inflation and should thus prove temporary; and (5) prospects for President Trump's policy agenda will remain the key driver of shifts in the US growth outlook. Looking at today’s calendar, this morning in Europe we’re kicking off shortly after this hits your emails with consumer confidence indicators in both Germany and France. Shortly after that we will get the February retail sales data in the UK before we then get the last 4y ECB TLTRO II auction which is being highlighted as worth keeping an eye on for further signs of take-up. Bloomberg consensus is running at €110bn. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll get the latest weekly initial jobless claims print along with new home sales data in February and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey for March. Away from the data, as mentioned earlier Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak shortly after lunch, while Kashkari (at 5pm GMT) and Kaplan (at 11pm GMT) are also scheduled today. BoE deputy governor Ben Broadbent is also due to speak this morning. The biggest event though for markets will likely be the House vote concerning the AHCA. Timing for this is still to be confirmed.
Торги на Токийской фондовой бирже (ТФБ) завершились сегодня минимальным ростом ведущих индексов, которые достигли максимального уровня за последние 15 месяцев на фоне стремительного ослабления японской валюты.Ключевой для Японии индекс Nikkei, отражающий курсы акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, к окончанию операций поднялся на...
Саудовская Аравия перестала быть крупнейшим поставщиком нефти в Китай и Индию в 2016 г., сократив свою долю на рынке из-за жесткой ценовой конкуренции со стороны России и Ирака, сообщает Nikkei Asian Review.
Саудовская Аравия перестала быть крупнейшим поставщиком нефти в Китай и Индию в 2016 г., сократив свою долю на рынке из-за жесткой ценовой конкуренции со стороны России и Ирака, сообщает Nikkei Asian Review.
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По итогам торгов среды в Америке индекс Dow Jones снизился на 0,03%, S&P вырос на 0,19%, Nasdaq окреп на 0,48%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 20661,3 пункта, S&P – 2348,45 пункта, Nasdaq – 5821,64 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND поднялся на 0,86% и составил 63521,34 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 снизился на 0,73% и закрылся на уровне 7324,72 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 потерял 0,15% и закрылся на уровне 4094,7 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX упал на 0,48% и к закрытию составил 11 904,12 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei поднялось к настоящему времени на 0,13% и составило 19066,89 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 вырос на 0,05% и находится на уровне 3451,84 пунктов. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG не изменился и остался на уровне 24320,03 пункта.
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei -414.50 19041.38 -2.13% TOPIX -33.22 1530.20 -2.12% Hang Seng -272.71 24320.41 -1.11% CSI 300 -16.30 3450.05 -0.47% Euro Stoxx 50 -8.92 3420.70 -0.26% FTSE 100 -53.62 7324.72 -0.73% DAX -58.01 11904.12 -0.48% CAC 40 -7.73 4994.70 -0.15% DJIA -6.71 20661.30 -0.03% S&P 500 +4.43 2348.45 +0.19% NASDAQ +27.82 5821.64 +0.48% S&P/TSX +35.33 15348.46 +0.23% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,341.00 (-0.05%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.04% до уровня 5,336.25. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в минусе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют негативную динамику. Nikkei 19,041.38 -414.50 -2.13% Hang Seng 24,320.41 -272.71 -1.11% Shanghai 3,245.45 -16.16 -0.50% FTSE 7,317.21 -61.13 -0.83% CAC 4,979.75 -22.68 -0.45% DAX 11,903.82 -58.31 -0.49% Майские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $47.57 за баррель (-1.39%) Золото торгуется по $1,247.00 за унцию (+0.04%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения после существенного снижения рынка на предыдущей сессии, ставшего крупнейшим однодневным падением после ноябрьских выборов. Инвесторы все больше беспокоятся о способности президента Дональда Трампа выполнить свои предвыборные обещания по сокращению налогов. Сейчас инвесторы ждут голосования в Конгрессе США по отмене реформы здравоохранения Obamacare. Опасения того, что это предложение не будет одобрено, усиливают и вероятность возможной неудачи обещанной администрацией США налоговой реформы. В фокусе внимания находятся акции компаний FedEx (FDX) и Nike (NKE), которые обнародовали свои квартальные результаты вчера после закрытия торгов. Компания FedEx сообщила о получении прибыли на уровне $2.35 в расчете на одну акцию по итогам последнего отчетного периода, что оказалось на $0.27 ниже, чем усредненный прогноз аналитиков. В то же время выручка компании выросла на 18.1% г/г до $15 млрд., как и предполагал средний прогноз аналитиков. В компании также подтвердили прогноз показателя прибыль на акцию на 2017 ФГ на уровне $11.85-12.35 против среднего прогноза аналитиков $11.93. Акции FDX на премаркете подскочили на 3.1%. Квартальные результаты Nike также оказались неоднозначными: ее прибыль составила $0.68 в расчете на одну акцию против среднего прогноза аналитиков на уровне $0.53; выручка достигла $8.432 млрд. (+5% г/г), что лишь на 0.4% меньше среднего прогноза аналитиков. Вместе с тем, как сообщили в Nike, мировые будущие заказы (количество товаров, запланированных на поставку в течение следующих шести месяцев) снизились на 4%. В компании рассчитывают на, что темп рост выручки в четвертом квартале составит 4-6% (незначительно ниже, чем в третьем квартале). Акции NKE на премаркете обвалились на 6%. Важных статистических данных, которые смогли бы оказать влияние на настроения участников рынка, перед открытием не публиковалось. После начала торгов влияние на их ход может оказать статистика по продажам жилья на вторичном рынке США (14:00 GMT), а также данные министерства энергетики по запасам сырой нефти (14:30 GMT).Источник: FxTeam
Все фондовые биржи Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР), кроме биржи Лаоса, завершили в минусе торги в среду после падения американских фондовых индексов во вторник рекордными темпами с сентября.
"Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot." That's how Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid begins his morning wrap note, and sure enough after months of warnings that the market has gotten way ahead of itself in pricing in the success of Trump's various domestic policies (confused? read last week's preview of just this event occurring from JPM), global markets are waking up to a sea of red as the US risk rout spreads, leading to a slide in European stocks for the third consecutive day led by banks and miners, Asian markets suffering their worst day of the year, and S&P 500 futures pointing to a modestly lower open again as the yen and gold rise. The catalyst, it will come as no surprise, is the end of the Trump rally which yesterday finally ended with a bang, not a whimper, as investors questioned the U.S. president’s ability to enact his pro-growth policies, casting doubt on the so-called reflation trade. Equities dropped across the globe as safe-haven assets advanced. A rally in government bonds continued and gold and the yen both extended gains. Base metals tumbled, with iron ore approaching a bear market. Investors’ flight to safety pushed down U.S. Treasury yields. The closely watched gap between U.S. and German 10-year yields touched its narrowest since November at around 195 basis points. German 10-year yields fell further and were last down 4.8 basis points at 0.41 percent. "Market participants are worried about the effects and feasibility of Donald Trump's growth program," DZ Bank strategist Birgit Figge said. As noted last night, bank and commodity shares led the selloff as the benchmark index in Europe fell a third day, following markets in Asia. Futures on the S&P 500, down 3% as of 6:15am ET, showed the broad US stock market index to extend its decline from Tuesday, when it sank more than 1% for the first time since October. Emerging-market stocks halted an eight-day winning streak. The dollar touched a four-month low against the Japanese currency, whose strength helped push Tokyo stocks to a three-week low, while the euro held close to its highest since early February at around $1.08. As Bloomberg puts it, "volatility in financial markets is soaring after a period of relative calm as concern mounts that Donald Trump’s flagship policies, which have underpinned a global rally since his election, won’t sail through Congress." Attention will next turn to Thursday’s crucial vote on the plan to repeal and replace Obamacare; top Republicans have warned failure to pass the health-care bill could imperil tax and spending reforms. “This bill has wide implications for President Trump’s plans for the U.S. economy as it is due to reduce government spending, with the freed up funds being used for the proposed tax cuts/reform and infrastructure spending” Rabobank wrote in a note to clients. Societe Generale currency strategist Alvin Tan, in London, said an FBI investigation into possible ties between Trump's campaign and Russia was also adding to investor worries. "All in all, that’s adding to a picture that the much hoped-for and hyped fiscal stimulus package may not be coming as soon as markets would like it to come, if at all," he said. The dollar swung between gains and losses as a slump in stock markets spurred haven demand for the yen, while investors reduced their exposure. Risk aversion was evident in both the spot and options markets: dollar-yen was lower a seventh day, set for its longest losing streak in two months, while bearish sentiment as expressed through risk reversals touched its strongest level in six weeks. Aussie-yen, a common risk barometer, was lower by the most in three months on a two-day basis. Refuge seeking amid equities tumble and the possibility that President Donald Trump’s fiscal policies will be delayed until Autumn didn’t result in a sharp drop for the greenback. According to Europe-based traders, quoted by BLoomberg, opposing market forces kept the greenback in consolidation mode. Some investors were seen cutting back on their longs given the currency’s latest weakness while others, mainly short-term accounts and fast-money names, faded the latest dip. The greenback as measured by the Dollar Index may be due for a rebound, a relief one at least. DeMark’s TD Sequential points to a recovery as a Buy Countdown was completed on March 17 while Wednesday price action also satisfies a Buy Setup series. Meanwhile, in equities, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.4 percent as benchmark indexes in Tokyo and Sydney slid the most since Trump’s election. Japan’s Topix lost 2.1 percent as the yen rose for a seventh day, touching the highest since November. A measure of Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong lost 1.8 percent after closing at the highest in almost 17 months on Tuesday. Japanese stocks fell 2 percent, Australian shares tumbled 1.6 percent and mainland Chinese shares closed down 0.5 percent. MSCI's main measure of emerging market equities slid nearly 1 percent. In Europe, the MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 1 percent in its first retreat in almost two weeks. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.4 percent at one point, its biggest intraday percentage fall since Dec. 15. In the previous session, the index hit its highest level since June 2015. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.8 percent as of 9:51 a.m. in London, the biggest decrease in a month. The European STOXX 600 index fell 0.9% to a two-week low, led lower by banks and miners. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.9 percent. E-mini futures on the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average indicated Wall Street would open lower and the CBOE VIX index topped 13 percent for the first time since mid-January. "Alongside this, speculation is persisting ... that the ECB may possibly scale back its ultra-expansionary policy stance to some extent at an earlier point in time than is currently being assumed." Gold hit a three-week peak of $1,248.47 and last traded up 0.2 percent at $1,247 an ounce. It has rallied almost $50 from last Wednesday's low after a less hawkish policy statement than many investors had expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Waning risk appetite also hit commodities: Brent crude oil fell 20 cents to $50.76 a barrel, while copper fell 0.5 percent to $5.747 a ton. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Risk off tone across EU bourses with stocks led lower by softness in financial and commodity names JPY remaining firm against its major counterparts as USD/JPY touches 4-month lows Looking ahead, highlights include US existing home sales and DoE Crude Oil Report Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,339.5 Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.9% to 372.29 MXAP down 1.4% to 147.11 MXAPJ down 1.2% to 477.10 Nikkei down 2.1% to 19,041.38 Topix down 2.1% to 1,530.20 Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 24,320.41 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,245.22 Sensex down 0.7% to 29,275.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.6% to 5,684.51 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,168.30 German 10Y yield fell 3.8 bps to 0.421% Euro down 0.1% to 1.0796 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.7% to $50.63/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 4.5 bps to 2.319% Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.8 bps to 1.767% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $50.63/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,248.02 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.02% to 99.79 Top Overnight News from RanSquawk Akzo Nobel Rejects PPG’s Sweetened, $24 Billion Takeover Bid Nike Gives Doubters Fresh Ammunition as Sales Miss Estimates FedEx Sees Rebound in Ground Unit as E-Commerce Fuels Expansion Takata Said to Be Ready to Let Carmakers Decide on Revamp Blackrock Reports New Stakes in Nintendo, 12 Others; Raises Sony Bats Indexes to Measure Brexit Impact on U.K. Companies Movado CFO Says Watchmaker in Talks to Reduce Swiss Job Cuts Galapagos Starts Phase 1 Study With Cystic Fibrosis Potentiator Indonesia to Own Majority Stake in Local Freeport Unit 2019 Gemalto Warning on U.S. Payment Business Drags Down Ingenico Amazon’s Alexa Takes Its Fight With Siri to Marriott Hotel Rooms Billionaire Lifts Stake in L.A. Times Publisher, Exits Board Meredith Boosts 3Q EPS View on Strong Advertising Novartis Heart Medicine Fails in Late-Stage Clinical Trial Apple May Invest in China Phone Apps Besides Didi: Caixin Sun Basket Said to Hire BofA, Jefferies for IPO: Reuters Asian equity markets traded negative as the downbeat tone rolled over from the US where stocks posted their worst day YTD amid a slump in financials. ASX 200 (-1.6%) suffered from the weak financial sector as well as declines in commodities, while Nikkei 225 (-2.1%) underperformed amid a firmer currency with USD/JPY below the 112.00 handle. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) conformed to the negative tone with earnings in focus, despite the PBoC's efforts to inject liquidity. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher as they benefited from safe-haven flows, with support also seen following a well-received 40yr bond auction. PBoC injected CNY 50bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.8889. BoJ minutes from January 30th-31st meeting stated that Japan's economy continues its moderate recovery trend and that most members agreed that price momentum is not firm yet. The minutes stated that exports picked up led by auto-related exports and that industrial production picked up reflecting moderate increase in demand at home and abroad, while 1 member suggested the BoJ should accommodate rising yields. Top Asian News PBOC Injects Funds for Third Day After Money-Market Rates Climb China Shadow Banks Squeezed by Record Premium for One-Week Cash Japanese Exports Jump Most in Two Years, Led by Sales to China Asia Trade Talks Chief Warns Against Turning Pact Into New TPP China H Shares Join Regional Selloff to Fall the Most This Year MediaTek Cuts 1Q Operating Profit Forecast, Raises Pretax View PHP Falls Before BSP Meeting as INR, TWD Consolidate: Asian NDFs European equity indices are down an average of 0.8% in early trade as risk off sentiment bites. The financial and materials sector are the amongst the worst performers with the latter being hit by poor performing commodities prices today. In equity specific news, Gemalto (GTO NA) are by far the worst performer this morning, down 22% after the Co. downgraded its forecasts for both profit and revenue. Fixed Income markets have benefitted from the aforementioned risk off sentiment as bunds now trade and are approaching the 160.46 resistance level. In line with this price action the USD 10yr yield is also falling down to 2.40% ahead of the 2.30% base which was noted in Feb and Jan this year. Top European News Goldman, Morgan Stanley Signal London Job Moves as Brexit Looms Hermes 2016 Profit Climbs on Handbag Sales, Europe Growth (1) Warburg to Buy Stake in Swiss Banking Software Maker Avaloq BBVA Completes Acquisition of Additional Garanti Stake In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent in its first advance in more than a week. The British pound fell 0.2 percent. The euro decreased 0.3 percent to $1.0783. The Japanese yen rose 0.4 percent to 111.26 per dollar, hitting the strongest in almost four months with its seventh straight advance. USD/JPY broke through 111.60 as stock markets in the US sold off yesterday, subsequently spurring safe haven flow back into the JPY. Today we get the latest from the RBNZ with rates expected to remain at all-time lows, the key note for today will be the tone of the accompanying statement. The market will be looking for clues regarding the future path of policy but this is also expected to be neutral. Commodities currency have been hit in general with morning in line with both copper and oil, USD/CAD has retraced some of its recent losses and is looking to test 1.34. AUD/USD rejected the 0.7740 area which had been tested on the 23rd Feb and the next significant area of support is the psychological 0.76 level. In commodities, the big mover was gold which pushed firmly through the USD 1245/oz resistance level with the next resistance higher up at the 27th Feb high of roughly USD 1263/oz. WTI and Brent crude trade near session lows amid no real fundamental data but today we look out for the DOE inventory levels after the API's produced a build of 4529k barrels. Copper is looking heavy after a poor day yesterday the next level of support on the downside USD 2.552 after US policy doubts loom. Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is again fairly sparse today. There is nothing of note in the European session this morning while in the US we’ll get the January FHFA house price index reading followed then by the February existing home sales data. Away from the data the ECB’s Villeroy and Lautenschlaeger are both scheduled to speak this morning. The EIA weekly crude oil inventory report is also due out. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.1% 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4% 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.55m, prior 5.69m 10am: Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -2.46%, prior 3.3% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot. Yesterday actually saw the fourth consecutive daily decline for the S&P 500 and the first > -1% down day since October 11th after the index tumbled -1.24%. It was a streak which lasted 109 days and fell just short of the 110 day streak in 1995. For those interested, there have only been 8 instances of a longer run than the one that just ended with the longest being 184 days set all the way back in 1963. There didn't seem to be one overriding issue for the market but US banks were weak (-3.86%) on lower yields and perhaps a relatively measured update from Morgan Stanley. The sector had its worst day since June 27th . Stretched valuations were also cited as a factor while markets were also concerned about the increasingly fractious health care debate in the US with a bill struggling to get the numbers to pass at the moment. This in turn leaves the market wondering about the efficacy and timing of tax reform plans supposedly coming over the coming months. The noise over the FBI probe into Trump and possible Russian connections isn't helping and neither is the bad run for oil with yesterday seeing the tenth fall in twelve days with WTI tumbling -1.82% to $47.34/bbl. That is the lowest closing price since November 29th. Just on the health care bill quickly, it was House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows who said that “currently there are not enough votes to pass the legalisation” after House conservatives were said to have not gotten the changes that they were demanding. The House is expected to vote on the repeal of Obamacare on Thursday and President Trump fired back at those critics yesterday by telling lawmakers that “the danger of your not voting for the bill is people could lose their seats”. Losing more than 21 Republican lawmakers through the 435-seat House is likely to result in the bill not getting through, assuming all Democrats vote against. So it’s one to watch given the potential implications for other reforms further down the line. It’s worth highlighting that our US economists do think that the health care reform will pass however. They highlight that while there is some concern that the Freedom Caucus, a group of roughly 40 House conservatives who have not endorsed the bill, may indeed block, this is a low probability event. Since much of the Trump agenda rests on the ability of the Republicans to pass healthcare reform, its failure would seriously dent the party’s political capital and imperil other legislative actions. For this reason, they expect Republicans to ultimately come together, even in the Senate, with the contours of the health care act to take shape before April 6th. Meanwhile, adding to the string of risk-off news and helping to push the selloff into the US close was a Reuters article suggesting that North Korea is to pursue an “acceleration” of its nuclear and missile programs. This is said to include a “preemptive first-strike capability”. The article also cited a US official in Washington as saying that Trump is considering sweeping sanctions to counter North Korea’s nuclear threat. Back to markets where, as well as that fall for the S&P, the Dow closed last night -1.14% and fell to its lowest level since February 17th. The Russell 2000 index also tumbled -2.71% and had its worst day since September 9th. That index is now actually into negative territory YTD (-0.78%) which seems hard to believe given the optimism that has prevailed in 2017. In contrast the MSCI EM index closed up a very modest +0.08% yesterday, but still finished higher for the eighth consecutive session. This morning in Asia the risk off tone has continued with heavy falls across most major bourses including the Nikkei (-1.82%), Hang Seng (-1.16%), Shanghai Comp (-0.46%), Kospi (-0.67%) and ASX (-1.35%). Credit markets also got swept up in the selloff yesterday in the US with CDX IG 1.3bps wider and CDX HY 9bps wider. Those moves came despite a backdrop of falling Treasury yields. The 10y dropped 4.3bps to 2.418% and has now fallen at least 4bps in each of the last 3 sessions. In fact the 10y is now trading at the lowest yield since March 1st. In FX the USD index (-0.59%) fell for the fourth time in the last five sessions and closed below 100 for the first time since February 6th. Elsewhere in commodities, Iron Ore (-4.26%) suffered its biggest one-day fall since December 14th while Copper (-1.77%) and Zinc (-1.22%) also fell sharply. Gold (+0.86%) was the clear outlier benefiting from a safe haven bid. Over in Europe yesterday equity markets were much more of a tale of two halves. Sentiment was generally positive for the most part in the morning session and into the early afternoon before the US led markets lower into the close. The Stoxx 600 finished -0.53% having been up as much as +0.40%. There was a similar pattern in credit with iTraxx Main finishing unchanged on the day but trading in a 2.5bp range after doing a roundtrip. Meanwhile in bonds 10y OAT yields were just over 2bps lower following that first presidential debate in France. We noted yesterday that a snap poll following the debate found that Macron was seen as the victor at 29%, while Le Pen was seen as most favoured by 19% of respondents. Following that an Elabe poll last night found that first round support for Macron has grown to 26% while support for Le Pen has dipped to 24.5%. That 1.5% advantage for Macron compares to a 0.5% margin advantage in an Elabe poll from a few days ago. Filllon is running at 17% (from 17.5%) and Melenchon at 13.5% (from 13%). In the second round a Macron Le Pen race has the former coming out on top at 64% to 36%. That is up from 63% versus 37% previously. The odds on Fillon getting through the first round have fallen but nevertheless a second round head to head between Fillon and Le Pen has the former coming out on top at 54% to 46%. That is down from 56% to 44% previously and that is now the tightest margin of victory in polls that we have seen. Before we look at today’s calendar, despite politics largely dominating the front pages yesterday there was also some interesting data in the UK to comb through. It was the latest inflation data which really caught investors’ attention after headline CPI was reported as rising +0.7% mom in February, exceeding expectations for a +0.5% rise. That has pushed the annual rate up five-tenths to +2.3% yoy and the highest since September 2013 while the core also rose fourtenths to +2.0% yoy and so equalling the high mark set back in June 2014. The consensus was only for a one-tenth rise in the core. Meanwhile headline RPI also rose more than expected (+1.1% mom vs. +0.8% expected) last month while at the upstream level the PPI outputs index rose +0.2% mom. Away from that the CBI’s industrial trends survey for March edged down 3pts to 29 but still remains at elevated levels. Sterling was the big winner in currencies yesterday, closing up +0.97% versus the US Dollar and edging closer to $1.250. Gilt yields also ticked higher, particularly at the short end of the curve where 2y and 5y yields were up 5.5bps and 4.1bps respectively. This morning in Asia the data has largely been focused in Japan with the latest trade numbers out. In February, exports were reported as rising +11.3% yoy (vs. +10.1% expected) which is up notably from +1.3% in January. Imports also declined to +1.2% yoy from +8.5% helping to fuel a larger than expected surplus. Sales into China were reported as increasing +28.2% yoy from +3.1% in January although that will likely be impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year celebrations. Finally, the BoJ minutes from the January meeting were also out this morning with the most interesting takeaway being a slight change in inflation perceptions between members with the latest minutes revealing that only “a few members” expected CPI not to reach 2% during the projected period, compared to “many members” in December. The Yen is little changed this morning after rallying +0.75% yesterday. Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is again fairly sparse today. There is nothing of note in the European session this morning while in the US we’ll get the January FHFA house price index reading followed then by the February existing home sales data. Away from the data the ECB’s Villeroy and Lautenschlaeger are both scheduled to speak this morning. The EIA weekly crude oil inventory report is also due out.
Министерство финансов Японии планирует увеличить минимальный процент облигаций, на которые первичные дилеры должны подать заявки на аукционах государственных облигаций, чтобы новый долг хорошо абсорбировался рынком, сообщает Nikkei Asian Review.
Министерство финансов Японии планирует увеличить минимальный процент облигаций, на которые первичные дилеры должны подать заявки на аукционах государственных облигаций, чтобы новый долг хорошо абсорбировался рынком, сообщает Nikkei Asian Review.
Торги на крупнейшей в Азии Токийской фондовой бирже завершились снижением котировок на фоне укрепления иены, а также опасений по поводу экономической политики администрации президента США Дональда Трампа.Ключевой фондовый индекс Nikkei, отражающий колебания курсов акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, опустился на 2,13%, до 19...
Испытания северокорейской ракеты закончились неудачей. По данным США, она взорвалась через пять секунд после старта. И хотя не известно, на какую цель направлял Пхеньян ракетную установку, биржевой индекс Nikkei сразу упал более чем на 2%. Пуск ракеты был произведен в среду, 22 марта, с восточного побережья КНДР в районе города Вонсан. Буквально сразу после старта она взорвалась в воздухе, что зафиксировали военные специалисты Японии, Южной Кореи и США. Тип ракеты пока им не известен, как не установлена еще траектория намечавшегося полета и, соответственно, цель, сообщает агентство "Ренхап". Впрочем, на всех последних испытаниях Пхеньян направлял ракетные установки в сторону Японии. Так, в начале марта КНДР уже совершила 4 запуска. Одна из ракет упала в 200 км от префектуры Акита на северо-западе острова Хонсю, остальные - чуть дальше, примерно в 300-500 км от первой, но через равные промежутки по 80 километров. По мнению экспертов, это может свидетельствовать о том, что Пхеньян работает над возможностью нанесения сразу нескольких ударов по близлежащим целям из одной точки.Позже из Северной Кореи пришло сообщение, что Республика тренируется наносить удары по американским военным базам на территории Японии. В администрации президента США Дональда Трампа ответили на это заявлениями, что намерены жестко пресечь агрессию Пхеньяна, и не исключили военного решения ядерной проблемы полуострова.Между тем пока Токио воздерживается от резких заявлений, осторожно отмечая, что ее военные изучают информацию. "Мы собираем данные, уделяя этому пристальное внимание", - сообщил генеральный секретарь кабинета министров Японии Ёсихидэ Суга, указав, что подтвержденных данных о ракетах, которые летели бы в сторону Страны восходящего солнца, нет. "Непосредственной угрозы безопасности не возникало", - подчеркнул он.Однако мировой рынок отреагировал на произошедшее более нервно. После сообщений о новых северокорейских пусках японский индекс Nikkei снизился более чем на 2% до 19 041,38 пункта.(https://utro.ru/articles/...)
2013 г. стал лучшим для японского фондового рынка с 1972 г. Индекс Nikkei 225 вырос на по итогам уходящего года на 57%, чему способствовали удешевление иены и рост прибыльности японских корпораций. Этот год запомнится экономическими экспериментами, которые проводили многие страны. Самый грандиозный из них проходит в Японии. Японская валюта потеряла около 21% с начала года, что стало одним из главных катализаторов роста. Последний раз подобное удешевление иены наблюдалось только в 1979 г. Чистая прибыль выросла до 5,5 трлн иен ($55 млрд) в целом по 1280 крупнейшим нефинансовым компаниям Японии. Прибыль росла самыми быстрыми темпами с 2010 г., показатель в прошлом году составил 2,25 трлн иен. Рост прибыли был зафиксирован у таких компаний, как Panasonic, которая сократила 71 тыс. рабочих мест, Mazda Motor, перенесшей производство автомобилей в Мексику, и Toyota Motor, которая остановила строительство нового завода. Изменение ВВП Японии, г/г В настоящий момент ситуация на иностранных рынках складывается в пользу японских компаний. Однако ситуация с внутренним спросом остается сложной. По опросу экономистов, проведенном агентством Bloomberg, в следующем году темпы роста зарплат составят лишь 0,6%, в то время как уровень инфляции может превысить 3%. Таким образом, заработные платы будут расти в пять раз медленнее уровня цен. Это дополнительно сократит покупательную способность японцев и может сделать курс экономической политики, проводимый премьер-министром Синдзо Абэ, непопулярным.