Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,478.75 (+0.22%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.69% до уровня 5,989.25. Внешний фон нейтральный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют снижение. Nikkei 20,079.64 +29.48 +0.15% Hang Seng 27,131.17 +190.15 +0.71% Shanghai 3,249.29 +1.62 +0.05% S&P/ASX 5,785.01 +8.39 +0.15% FTSE 7,438.58 -13.74 -0.18% CAC 5,185.78 -4.39 -0.08% DAX 12,228.24 -76.87 -0.62% Сентябрьский нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $48.50 за баррель (-0.51%) Золото торгуется по $1,263.10 за унцию (+1.10%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете повышаются на фоне озвученного накануне решения ФРС оставить ставки без изменений и свежего блока корпоративных отчетов. Напомним, по итогам июльской встречи ФРС ожидаемо не стал менять параметры денежно-кредитной политики, оставив целевой диапазон ставки по федеральным фондам в пределах 1.00-1.25%. Несмотря на то, что в федрезерве заявили о "сравнительно скором" начале процесса сокращения баланса, сопроводительное заявление в целом оказалось мягче, чем ожидалось. Так, в ФРС отметили, что в ближайшей перспективе темпы инфляции будут оставаться несколько ниже целевого уровня в 2% и регулятор продолжит внимательно наблюдать за развитием инфляционной динамики. Инвесторы оценивают квартальные результаты множества компаний, в том числе таких как Barrick Gold (ABX), Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), Procter & Gamble (PG), Verizon (VZ), Intl Paper (IP) и Altria (MO). Первые четыре компании - Barrick Gold, Facebook, Twitter и Procter & Gamble - отчитались лучше, чем прогнозировали аналитики. На этом фоне акции FB взлетели на премаркете на 6.2%, акции PG и ABX прибавили по 2%. В то же время акции TWTR обвалились на 10%, так как инвесторы остались разочарованы динамикой показателя ежемесячные активные пользователи (Monthly Active Users, MAU): в компании сообщили, что среднее количество активных пользователей не изменилось по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом и составило 328 млн. пользователей. Обнародованная Verizon прибыль на уровне $0.96 в расчете на одну акцию совпала с прогнозом аналитиков, тогда как заявленная выручка компании в $30.548 млрд. оказалась на 2.4% выше усредненного прогноза аналитиков. Акции VZ на премаркете выросли на 3.6%. Квартальные результаты Intl Paper (прибыль на уровне $0.65 и выручка в размере$5.772 млрд. (+8.5% г/г)) совпали со средними оценками аналитиков. Акции IP на премаркете подешевели на 0.9%. Отчет Altria оказался разочаровывающим: прибыль компании по итогам отчетного периода достигла $0.85 в расчете на одну акцию, что оказалось ниже среднего прогноза аналитиков на уровне $0.86; ее выручка компании составила $4.366 млрд. (+3.2% г/г), тогда как средний прогноз аналитиков предполагал $5.021 млрд. Акции MO на премаркете снизились на 0.5%. Кроме того, в фокусе находятся данные по заказам на товары длительного пользования и первичным обращения за пособием по безработице. Согласно отчету Министерства труда, первичные обращения за пособием по безработице в период с 16 июля по 22 июля увеличились на 10 000 до 244 000 с учетом сезонных колебаний. В то же время среднее количество первичных обращений за последний месяц, что дает более стабильную картину тенденций увольнения, не изменилось на уровне 244 000. Таким образом, первичные обращения были ниже 300 000 в течение 125 недель подряд, это самый продолжительный период с начала 1970-х годов. В Министерстве торговли сообщили, что в прошлом месяце заказы на товары длительного пользования выросли на 6.5%, тогда как экономисты прогнозировали увеличение на 3%. Тем не менее, за исключением самолетов и автомобилей, заказы выросли на 0.2%, а ключевой показатель инвестиций в бизнес упал впервые в 2017 году. Так называемые основные заказы на капитальные товары в июне снизились на 0.1%. После закрытия торговой сессии ожидается публикация квартальной отчетности Amazon (AMZN), Intel (INTC) и Starbucks (SBUX).Источник: FxTeam
The levitation continues with S&P futures pointing to - what else - another higher open while European stocks swung between gains and losses on the busiest earnings days of the year (85 of the Stoxx 600 report) which has seen European pharma giant AstraZeneca plunge 15%, the most on record, after its flagship lung cancer trial Mystic failed to show benefits, while Deutsche Bank slumped 4% on a 12% plunge in FICC revenue. Asian shares rose spurred by results and alongside a surge in China's small-cap ChiNext index which surged 3.6%, its biggest one day gain since last August, after earnings reports revealed that the Chinese "National Team" aka PPT had bought 2 ChiNext shares. Europe's Stoxx Europe 600 Index fluctuated before edging lower amid the wave of company reports, with the likes of Nokia and BASF beating estimates but Deutsche Bank and Airbus disappointing. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.1 percent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index decreased less than 0.1 percent. Germany’s DAX Index fell 0.5 percent. The MSCI Emerging Market Index rose 0.9 percent to the highest in about three years. In Asia, solid earnings from giants Samsung and Nintendo helped the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to the highest since December 2007. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.4 percent, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.4 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index added 0.7 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.1 percent. Meanwhile, the MSCI's 47-country All World share index cheered its latest record high. The big story remains the relentless drop in the greenback which however may have paused for the time being, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index paring an earlier drop, but still trading near the lowest in more than a year after the Fed once again surprised on the dovish side by altering its wording around inflation, suggesting recent inflationary weakness may be more persistent than expected. "The dollar's biggest problem is it can't expect help from the Fed for a long time," said Alan Ruskin, global head of forex at Deutsche Bank. "In the short term we are still in a risk-favorable loop, whereby subdued goods and services inflation supports a well-behaved bond market and asset inflation. It's just another day in paradise." Elsewhere in currencies, the yen traded at 111.35 per dollar, while the Aussie extended gains above 80 US cents, rising 0.4 percent after jumping 0.9 percent Wednesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped less than 0.05 percent to the lowest in about 15 months as of 9:40 a.m. in London. The euro declined 0.1 percent to $1.1727. The British pound rose 0.1 percent to $1.3138, the strongest in more than 10 months. The Swiss franc decreased 0.3 percent to $0.9542, the weakest in more than a week. Oil prices paused near eight-week highs after a surprisingly sharp drop in U.S. inventories encouraged speculation a global crude glut would recede. A bout of profit-taking saw Brent crude futures ease 7 cents to $50.90 a barrel, while U.S. crude dipped 5 cents to $48.70. In rates, Germany’s 10-year yield decreased five basis points to 0.52 percent. France’s 10-year yield fell four basis points to 0.772 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.191 percent. Economic data include jobless claims, durable goods orders. Scheduled earnings include Amazon, Procter & Gamble, Comcast, Verizon, Intel. U.S. Bulletin Headline Summary Swedish PM, Lofven is said to not call a snap election and is to re-arrange cabinet Yields have continued to soften across Europe Looking ahead, highlights include US Durables, Wholesale Inventories and Weekly Jobs Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,477.75 MXAP up 1% to 160.81 MXAPJ up 0.9% to 532.31 Nikkei up 0.2% to 20,079.64 Topix up 0.4% to 1,626.84 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 27,131.17 Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,249.78 Sensex up 0.4% to 32,524.37 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,785.01 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,443.24 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.08% to 382.44 German 10Y yield fell 4.7 bps to 0.514% Euro down 0.08% to 1.1725 per US$ Italian 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.836% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.2 bps to 1.515% Brent Futures down 0.3% to $50.84/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,261.95 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.52 Top Overnight News Deutsche Bank’s Trading Outlook Dims; AstraZeneca Plummets After Failed Trial; Big Oil Earnings Beat Across the Board Libor will be phased out by the end of 2021, as U.K. regulators and banks look to replace the scandal- tarred indicator with a more reliable system Senate Republicans who have promised to demolish Obamacare are swerving toward a bare-bones approach that might eliminate just a few pieces of the landmark health-care law Hedge funds which had built up an unprecedented bet against two-year U.S. notes in the futures market, left battered by the dovish Fed With House members planning to leave Washington Friday for a five-week recess, the lack of a budget is raising doubts that a tax rewrite -- one of President Donald Trump’s top priorities -- can get done this year, or even before the 2018 elections Schneider Electric SE agreed to buy U.S. power-systems maker ASCO Power Technologies for $1.25 billion as the French company expands in North America and seeks to offset falling sales at its infrastructure division Energy Capital Partners, the private equity firm that owns the largest stake in U.S. power generator Dynegy Inc., is now in advanced talks to buy its rival Calpine Corp. Apollo Global Management LLC amassed $24.6 billion for the largest fund ever raised by a leveraged-buyout firm, crowning a string of record-setting war chests as investors hunt for better returns Just four months into his latest turnaround plan, Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan is already dialing back ambitions Viacom has dropped out of the bidding to buy Scripps; Discovery remains in talks for deal, WSJ reports Ex-PBOC adviser sees capital outflow as biggest potential threat: Caixin Moody’s changes China banking system outlook to stable from negative Japan doesn’t need fiscal stimulus, economic adviser Takahashi says Brazil cuts benchmark lending rate by 100bps to 9.25% Asia equity markets were mostly higher following the US gains, where stocks marginally extended on advances amid earnings and following a somewhat dovish-perceived FOMC. As such, mild upside was observed in ASX 200 and Nikkei 225, with the former led by strength across the commodities complex. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng. traded mixed with underperformance in the mainland bourse after the PBoC reduced its liquidity operations, while participants also digested mixed Industrial Profits data. 10yr JGBs were higher despite the mostly positive tone in the region, as yields tracked the declines in their US counterparts following the aforementioned FOMC, while today's 2yr auction results failed to impact prices as the results were mixed. China Industrial Profits in June rose Y/Y 19.1%, above May's 16.7%. The PBoC injected CNY 60bln 7-day reverse repos, while the PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.7307 (Prey. 6.7529) Top Asia News Noble Group Shares Collapse After Warning of $1.8 Billion Loss Glencore Is Said In Talks to Share Assets Yancoal Won From Rio India Said to Mull Allowing Funds to Lend Bonds in Repo Market Queensland Sees Adani Tapping Equipment Firms to Fund Giant Mine Japan’s Main Opposition Leader Resigns Amid Turmoil in Her Party European equities are pretty choppy this morning with today being without a doubt the busiest session so far in Europe on the earnings front, as the majority of Europe's largest reported before the open. All eyes on AstraZeneca (-15%) as they look set for their worst day on record after initial reports in their lung cancer trial failed to meet primary objectives. Consequently, the healthcare sector underperforms noticeably with the sector slipping 1.5%. On a brighter note, AB InBev and Diageo are enjoying sizeable gains after firm financial results. EGBs higher this morning with the German curve slightly flatter this morning, notable activity has been seen going through in futures with reports of one black trade of 5k at 162.29 with some believing this to be a buyer of Bunds. The EU has warned that the next phase of Brexit negotiations will be delayed for two months because of the UK's refusal to engage with Brussels on the so-called 'Brexit divorce bill', according to the Telegraph. UK Home Secretary Rudd said the government would seek a transitional Brexit arrangement, which would likely to include free movement to avoid a "cliff edge" for employers or EU nationals in the country. Top European News London Walkie Talkie Skyscraper Sells for a Record $1.7 Billion Macron Unleashes a Decade of Italian Anger Since Zidane Headbutt Price Shock Too Big to Ignore Seen Halting Russian Rate Cuts Norway Gas Outage Keeps EU Traders Busy Before Summer Lull U.K. Commissions Study Into Impact of EU Workers on Economy In currencies, USD selling continued last night post the FOMC meeting in which the central bank was slightly more downbeat on inflation. Subsequently, this prompt the USD sell-off to benefit major FX pairs, with the greenback at 2Y lows against the EUR. Notable size in the options market with 1.3bln worth of vanilla options situated at 1.17. Sweden are currently gripped by a political crisis after opposition parties called for a no confidence vote in PM Lofven's minority government (potentially for August) following handling of an IT out-sourcing deal. With suggestions that the option on the table were possibly for the PM to call a snap election EURSEK broke the early morning range of 9.5680-9.5870 to breach 9.6000. However, the weakness in SEK had been pared after the PM announced that he would reshuffle cabinet. Looking at the day today, we will see June data on durable (+3.7% mom expected) and capital goods orders (+0.3% mom expected) as well as wholesale inventories (+0.3% mom expected). We will also see jobless claims numbers and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index (11 expected) due. Notable US companies reporting include: Intel, Western Digital, Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Procter & Gamble, Conocophillips and Amazon. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 233,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.96m, prior 1.98m 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 3.7%, prior -0.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.25%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $65.5b deficit, prior $65.9b deficit, revised $66.3b deficit 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.4%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.6% 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.4, prior -0.3 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 47.6 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11, prior 11 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Before we review a broadly in-line FOMC, albeit one that led to a sharpish fall in yields and the dollar its worth reminiscing that it was 5 years ago yesterday that Draghi gave his infamous "Whatever it takes..." speech. So what did it take and what did it achieve? Well the depo rate was cut 4 times to -0.4% and ECB balance sheet has expanded to €4.24tn from just over €3tn 5 years ago. However in September 2014 this had dropped to c.€2tn. So in just under 3 years the ECB has acquired around €2.25tn of securities which interestingly is roughly the size of the entire annual output of France (population 67mn) and only a bit more than that of India (population 1.32bn). Over that 5 year period of 39 major global assets we track on a regular basis the IBEX (+109%), S&P 500 (+106%), FTSE-MIB (+93%) and the DAX (+84%) are the best performers in USD terms. As one would expect Spanish (+52%) and Italian (+44%) government bonds have dramatically outperformed Bunds (+6%), Treasuries (+5%) and Gilts (+2%). The Euro is actually 'only' -4% lower against the USD over the period. Actually it's interesting that in this world of extreme QE and the perception that bonds are in a semi-permanent low yield environment with inflation at rock bottom levels, that the core bond market returns above are actually pretty uninspiring and would have given investors a negative real return over 5 years. Probably our strongest held medium-term view continues to be that core bond markets have very little chance of giving investors a positive real return over any medium-long term horizon. Anyway Draghi clearly did what it took to avert a European financial disaster but only history will tell us whether the huge asset purchases, negative rates and yields were a price worth paying for such a dramatic turnaround in the peripheral asset class complex. It will also be interesting to see what history makes of the Fed's huge balance sheet expansion in recent years and also their decision to start the reduction process. It will be a journey into the unknown from a historical perspective. On that topic last night's FOMC outcome was broadly inline with expectations but the market must have thought it more dovish than expected as 10 year US yields fell around 4.5bps after the statement and by the same amount on the day. The Dollar index fell by -0.5% immediately after too. Our US economists saw two minor surprises in the statement. One was the more explicit firming in the Committee’s guidance about the timing to start its balance sheet unwind, which they now expect to begin “relatively soon.” Secondly, it was how the Committee described the inflation outlook. They now acknowledged the further decline in (PCE) inflation since the June meeting, and now view inflation as running “below” rather than “somewhat below” their inflation target (2% in the medium term). Elsewhere, the committee upgraded their view on job gains post solid June employment stats. On the back of this, DB’s rate expectations remain unchanged, where we expect the Fed to announce it will begin a gradual tapering of its balance sheet reinvestment purchases in October and see the next rate hike coming in December. Looking at market pricing from Bloomberg, traders appear to have taken a very slightly dovish outlook, with the chance of a rate hike in Dec 17 slightly lowered to 43% vs. 45% pre the FOMC. Global equity markets continued to post small gains yesterday. Over in the US, the FOMC didn't seem to have much impact and generally strong earnings pushed the S&P 500 (+0.03%), Dow (+0.45%) and the NASDAQ (+0.17%) to slightly higher brand new highs. In Europe the STOXX 600 index posted strong gains of +0.5%, with nearly every single sector ending the day in positive territory. Regional markets were also broadly positive, as the DAX (+0.33%), FTSE (+0.24%), CAC (+0.56%) and FTSE MIB (+0.56%) were all up on the day as well. This morning in Asia, markets are broadly up, with the Nikkei (+0.1%), Kospi (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.5%) higher, but two of the three main Chinese bourses have fallen -0.6% with the Shenzhen bucking the trend (+0.6%). Back to bonds yesterday, in Europe we saw German Bund yields (2Y -1bp; 10Y -1bp) lower. Elsewhere Gilt yields fell across all maturities (2Y -3bps; 10Y -3bps) following a fairly lacklustre (if expected) Q2 GDP growth number of +0.3% (+0.2% last quarter) or +1.7% YoY (+2.0% previous). In other FX markets the Euro/USD climbed by 0.7% - all after the FOMC - and to a fresh 30-month high. Sterling/USD also climbed a similar amount at the same point (+0.6%) to 10-month highs. Both are also a couple of tenths of a percent higher again in Asian trading. In commodity markets the energy sector saw broad based gains as oil continued to rally (WTI +1.8% - although most of this was holding onto levels from the after hours performance the night before), with gains of +6.2% on the week so far. Precious metals were mostly flat on the day while industrial metals gained (Copper +3.3%; Aluminium +0.9%). Agricultural commodities also posted broad based gains. Away from markets, the voting drama to repeal Obamacare continues. Overnight, the Senate rejected a simple repeal of the plan on votes of 45-55. Senator Cornyn is now exploring a scaled back repeal plan that may be easier to pass, but the House Freedom Caucus Chairman Meadows said there was “zero” chance the house would go for a skinny repeal of Obamacare even if the Senate pass it first. Forward plans are still unclear and it is possible that this could lead to an all-night voting event at some point soon, featuring dozens of amendment votes. Elsewhere, Treasury secretary Mnuchin reiterated the government can finance tself through September but warned that there is a cost to delaying an increase to the government debt limit. Staying with US fiscal policy, the Washington Post ran a story that White House officials may be looking to pass a sharp short-term tax cut if President Trump’s broader tax reform plans falter. These contingency plans could be pursued as soon as September and highlight the challenges faced by a broader tax overhaul. According to the story, the top advocates for the targeted tax cut are Larry Kudlow and Steve Moore, both top economic advisers during Trump’s campaign who remain in contact with White House officials. Their pitch is a plan called “Three Easy Pieces” which would (i) cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15% for 10 years, (ii) double the standardized deduction that Americans claim in their taxes and (iii) allow companies to bring money back from overseas without a significant tax penalty. While Moore expects the changes to cost between U$2-3tn over 10 years, they could ramp up economic growth and give Congress more time to plan out a broader overhaul of the tax code. This is however a departure from the tax plan crafted by Mnuchin and Cohn over several months, and neither has reportedly entertained the idea much so far. This should become an important story to follow contingent on how tax reform discussions proceed. Taking a look now at some of the other data out yesterday. Europe saw the July consumer confidence reading out of France disappoint (104 vs. 108 expected; 108 previous). Over in the US the only data ahead of the FOMC rate decision was new home sales data which held steady at 610k against expectations of an increase (615k expected; 610 previous). For Thursday, the morning session looks quiet with only the German GfK Consumer Confidence indicator for August (10.6 expected; 10.6 previous) and the Euro area M3 money supply number due. Across the pond it’s a busier day over in the US as we will see June data on durable (+3.7% mom expected) and capital goods orders (+0.3% mom expected) as well as wholesale inventories (+0.3% mom expected). We will also see jobless claims numbers and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index (11 expected) due. Notable US companies reporting include: Intel, Western Digital, Dow Chemical, Mastercard, Procter & Gamble, Conocophillips and Amazon. Notable European companies reporting include: Nestle, Shell, Fiat, Volkswagen and Bayer AG. Indeed this is set to be the busiest day for European earnings with 85 of the Stoxx 600 reporting.
Акции, облигации и сырьевые товары выросли в четверг, после того как заявления Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) США снизились ожидания повышения процентных ставок в США.процентных ставок в США, сообщает Reuters.
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По итогам торгов среды США индекс Dow Jones вырос на 0,45%, S&P – на 0,03%, Nasdaq – на 0,16 %. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло 21 715,43 уровня пункта, S&P – 2 477,83 пункта, Nasdaq – 6 422,75 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND упал на 1,02% и составил 64 996,11 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 прибавил 0,24% и закрылся на уровне 7 452,32 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 вырос на 0,56% и закрылся на уровне 5 190,17 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX вырос на 0,33% и к закрытию составил 12 305,11 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei поднялось к настоящему времени на 0,07% и составило 20 069,19 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 вырос на 0,16% и находится на уровне 3 711,425 пункта. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG поднялся на 0,49% и находится на уровне 27 072,67 пункта.
Торги на крупнейшей в Азии Токийской фондовой бирже завершились в четверг ростом основных индексов на фоне публикации компаниями положительной финансовой отчетности за апрель - июнь.Ключевой индекс Nikkei, отражающий колебания курсов акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, вырос на 0,15%, до 20 079,64 пункта. Более широкий индекс...
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei +94.96 20050.16 +0.48% TOPIX +3.81 1620.88 +0.24% Hang Seng +88.97 26941.02 +0.33% CSI 300 -14.17 3705.39 -0.38% Euro Stoxx 50 +17.65 3491.19 +0.51% FTSE 100 +17.50 7452.32 +0.24% DAX +40.80 12305.11 +0.33% CAC 40 +29.09 5190.17 +0.56% DJIA +97.58 21711.01 +0.45% S&P 500 +0.70 2477.83 +0.03% NASDAQ +10.57 6422.75 +0.16% S&P/TSX -30.98 15171.39 -0.20% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Via Global Macro Monitor, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.” – Mark Twain (maybe) We have been speaking a lot about how the liquidity in the market today is different than in the past. The chart below reflects this better than anything we have seen. The monetary base in the U.S. has exceeded M1, the most narrow definiton of money, since the financial crisis. The monetary base consists of money in circulation and reserves held at the Fed (see definition below). The M1 money multiplier is still less than one, which reflects that for every dollar created by the Fed – an increase in the monetary base – results in a less than one dollar increase in the money supply (M1). Credit and deposit creation of commercial banks is thus still impaired, though improving and its repairment may be one reason why the Fed is a bit nervous and in tightening mode. Watch This Space A rapid turnaround and improvement in the money multiplier, which may be also be reflected in improving bank net interest margins and growing balance sheets, could act as an early indicator of potential inflationary pressures and a flag that the massive amount of high powered money in the financial system is being converted to credit based money. The Fed is therefore walking a tightrope of an unstable equilibrium with inflation on one side and deflation on the other, especially if your main policy tool is to pay interest on a large portion of that high powered money. This, as the markets become increasingly convinced the global economy is now in a “Goldilocks” scenario, justifying extreme asset valuations and the record low volatility. Note, the secular decline in the money multiplier, which reflects many factors, including the almost irrelevance of M1, foreign capital flows, financial innovation, technology and the rise of non-bank banks. For example, private direct lending is all the rage now with hedge funds and other non-bank banks. Different Kind of Liquidity The above illustrates why we are in a period of mainly central bank based liquidity rather than credit based liquidity — which can evaporate almost over night with, say, a financial or economic shock — as it did in 2008. Upshot? It’s all up to the central banks, mainly the Fed and ECB, and when markets perceive it matters that they are removing money/liquidity from the system. And there is a lot of it out there, folks. Flooding the reservoirs with nowhere to go but to overflow into the asset and financial markets. The stock of reserves in the financial system are what matter now (the Fed’s position), but flows will dominate when the market perceives they are approaching drought level conditions. There is also a tipping point policy interest rate that will bite the economy and destabilize the markets, but we believe that is at least 100-200 basis points higher. After all, “John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand 2.0 , [-1.5 or 1.25] percent” – Bagehot Maybe Caterpillar’s earnings release this morning reflects that the excess liquidity is starting to kick into the global economy. Take a look at Dr. Copper breaking out to a two-year high today, though is doesn’t take much copper to write an AI program, does it? In additon, the future trajectory of the economy and risk markets are also dependent on how and how much credit, liquidity, and “money” — economists can’t even agree on what is money — are now being created. Good luck measuring that. Markets are acting as if “money” is far from “tight” or nowhere close to getting there. And central banks are too nervous to tighten up monetary conditions to any significant level. That, in our opinion, is another reason why volatility is breaking to record lows and risk markets are so elevated experiencing only just very shallow pullbacks. And it can, and is, lasting longer than many have expected. October Correction Is Our Best Guess We are are waiting for Mr. October to step up and knock the risk markes for a loop, however, resulting in a nice fall correction (pun intended). We believe many factors will be converging by then, including: 1) seasonality; 2) the Fed balance sheet should, or could be shrinking ; 3) China’s Party Congress may have concluded, removing the country’s implicit policy put, and thus increasing the risk of a China policy or economic shock; 4) the new U.S. Federal government fiscal year begins October 1 and if the Trump administration has not passed any significant economic legislation, the markets may begin to throw in the towel; 5) there will be more clarity on ECB tapering; 6) even more elevated asset prices as the risk markets grind higher through the rest of summer as we suspect, setting up for a potential blow-off by the end of September; 7) nervousness over the debt ceiling; and, finally, 8) by then, the souffle now being baked and puffed up by the markets should barely be able to withstand the slamming of the oven door. Will it kill the bull? Not until monetary conditions tighten up significantly in our opinion, and the Fed believes the economy can survive a prolonged bear or sideways market, which probably won’t happen unless John Taylor replaces Janet Yellen. Central banks now, not even with the undercover of, say, a plunge protection team, buy equities outright if they think it will help stimulate aggregate demand. The Bank of Japan is now set to become the number one shareholder in 55 of the Nikkei 225 companies How did we ever get to this place? A Caveat: Difficulty of Fully Understanding The Global Monetary System Trying to understand the global monetary system, a black box, in our opinion, is similar to watching shadow puppets dancing on the side of the wall of a cave or seeing through a glass darkly. The monetary system is too complex and too dynamic for you to understand it all. So it’s better to understand enough that you can be competent, but not so much that you become a danger to yourself. – Cullen Roche A good friend of mine and great economist, David Herstle Jones, describes the execution of monetary policy as, “…driving on a narrow mountain road in the fog.” – DHJ Good luck. * * * Appendix: M1 Money Supply M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of non bank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler’s checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately. – St. Louis Fed, FRED Monetary Base The Adjusted Monetary Base is the sum of currency (including coin) in circulation outside Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Treasury, plus deposits held by depository institutions at Federal Reserve Banks. These data are adjusted for the effects of changes in statutory reserve requirements on the quantity of base money held by depositories.– St. Louis Fed, FRED Money Multiplier The M1 multiplier is the ratio of M1 to the St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base. For further information on monetary aggregates, please refer to the Definitions, Notes, and Sources at http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/. – St. Louis Fed, FRED
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,478.75 (+0.19%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.23% до уровня 5,947.25. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют рост. Nikkei 20,050.16 +94.96 +0.48% Hang Seng 26,941.02 +88.97 +0.33% Shanghai 3,247.58 +3.89 +0.12% S&P/ASX 5,776.63 +50.03 +0.87% FTSE 7,466.44 +31.62 +0.43% CAC 5,188.24 +27.16 +0.53% DAX 12,299.68 +35.37 +0.29% Сентябрьский нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $48.38 за баррель (+1.02%) Золото торгуется по $1,247.10 за унцию (-0.40%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете повышаются. Инвесторы анализируют свежий блок корпоративных отчетов, ожидая итогов заседания Федерального комитета открытого рынка (FOMC), которые будут озвучены в 19:00 GMT. Поскольку заседание не будет сопровождаться обновлением экономических прогнозов и пресс-конференцией, рынки считают маловероятным, что на нем будут приняты какие-либо важные решения. Ожидается, что регулятор сохранит целевой показатель для федеральных фондов без изменений, на уровне 1-1.25%, и, вполне вероятно, просигнализирует о готовности приступить к сокращению баланса объемом $4.5 трлн. Инвесторы оценивают квартальные результаты множества компаний, в том числе таких как AT&T (T) , Coca-Cola (KO), Ford Motor (F) и Boeing (BA). Первые три компании - AT&T, Coca-Cola и Ford Motor - сообщили о получении по итогам отчетного квартала прибыли, которая оказалась выше, чем прогнозировали аналитики, тогда как их выручки совпали с ожиданиями рынка. Стоить отметить, что показатели выручки всех трех компаний показали г/г сокращение (на 1.6%, 15.9% и 0.5%, соответственно). В то же время, результаты Boeing оказались неоднозначными: показатель компани прибыль на акцию значительно (на $0.24) превысив прогноз и составил $2.55, что ознаменовало существенно г/г улучшение (по итогам второго квартала предыдущего года компания получила убыток на уровне $0.44 в расчете на акцию); выручка компании составила $22.739, что оказалось на 8.1% меньше, чем во втором квартале 2016 года, и на 1% ниже прогнозируемого аналитиками результата. На премаркете акции F и KO подешевели на 1.5% и 0.3%, соответственно, тогда как акции BA и T подскочили на 3.9% и 3%. После начала торгов в фокусе внимания инвесторов будут также находиться данные по продажам новостроек (14:00 GMT) и изменениям запасов нефти (14:30 GMT). После закрытия торговой сессии ожидается публикация квартальной отчетности Barrick Gold (ABX) и Facebook (FB).Источник: FxTeam
S&P futures were fractionally higher (+0.1% to 2,476) with all eyes on the Fed's rate decision as investors await another earnings deluge from companies including Facebook, Coca-Cola and Boeing. Asian and European shares were also higher, prompted by momentum from the latest US record high; the Dollar rebound continued while oil rose above $48 as copper hit a two year high. Risk appetite improved yesterday as oil prices kept climbing following Saudi Arabia’s commitment to export cuts. Safe-haven assets sold off, the VIX reached a new historic low, equities were up across the board, and the USD outperformed after a consumer confidence measure was higher than expected. Asian markets were mixed at midday local time. WTI advanced 0.8% to $48.26 a barrel, extending gains from the highest close in seven weeks. Crude inventories slumped by a whopping 10.2 million barrels last week according to the latest API data. Copper gained 0.6 percent in its fifth consecutive advance, hitting the highest in two years, lifting shares of producers including Glencore on expectations that demand in China will fuel a global shortage, with plans in the country to curb metal-rich waste imports reinforcing a bullish outlook. In the overnight session, sovereign bonds opened lower in Asia following yesterday's sharp Treasuries sell off where several selling blocks slammed futures; the Australian 10-year yield rose as much as seven basis points before easing well off the highs on an unexpected miss in headline inflation (Q2 CPI 0.2%, Exp. 0.4%) followed by a dovish speech by the RBA's Lowe; Yield were softer at 2.32% after Senate healthcare debate gets off to a difficult start. Stocks gained in Sydney and Tokyo, fall in Shanghai and Seoul. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.2 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.9 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index fell 0.2 percent, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 0.3 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index added 0.1 percent. The Aussie fell 0.4 percent to 79.09 U.S. cents after as noted above Australia’s Q2 headline inflation rose less than expected. 10-year Australian government notes saw yields climb four basis points to 2.73 percent. WTI crude slips below $48.50 after surging the most since November on Tuesday; Dalian iron ore futures flat. A broad rally in commodities from oil to copper boosted European stock momentum with the Stoxx 600 index jumping 0.6%, its biggest gain in a week, as positive results from energy firms such as Subsea 7 and Tullow Oil continued to feed into markets. Energy stocks joined the broad-based global rally as oil rose above $48 a barrel for the first time since early June. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased 0.6 percent. Germany’s DAX Index increased 0.5 percent, the biggest climb in two weeks. "The indications are more positive on the outlook for energy stocks. While there was a lot of kitchen sinking from firms in Q2 numbers, they have reset the expectations over the valuations now, they have cleaned up balance sheets," said Angelo Meda, head of equities at Banor SIM in Milan. "The outlook is not so bad (...) We are still missing one component which is the commentary from big oil firms Total, BP, Royal Dutch Shell." Copper reached a two-year high on expectations of increasing demand from China. Treasuries and European government bonds rose following Tuesday’s selloff, while boosting the dollar. While there are some nerves ahead of today's Fed statement, Yellen is not expected to "rock the boat" in what many anticipate will be a non-event announcement. Meanwhile, earnings continue to be a source of optimism, as more than 80% of reporting S&P 500 companies beaten earnings forecasts so far this reporting period, helping to support optimism in the global economy and pushing volatility to record lows. As Bloomberg notes, "Investors are looking for guidance from the Fed on how it plans to unwind its bond portfolio, with policy makers seen keeping interest rates on hold as the U.S. central bank meeting concludes on Wednesday." “Top of our mind is whether there will be more clarity on efforts to unwind the US$4.5 trillion portfolio of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Isaah Mhlanga, an economist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg, said in a client note. “We think the bank will give more clarity on its intention to do so but without the specifics of timing. When the Fed eventually introduces Taper 2.0, that will be the return of volatility.” In previewing today's FOMC announcement, DB's Jim Reid writes that given its late July and given the Fed will likely announce an end to balance sheet reinvestment in September (starting from October), this could be a relatively dull meeting. DB believes the Fed is unlikely to take any action in a policy firming direction at the meeting this week, partly because inflation has continued to surprise to the downside as of late. The bank expects the statement to focus on how the Fed will handle the dichotomy between a resumption of moderate growth and continuing improvement in the labour market on one hand and ongoing softness in inflation on the other. On the topic of the timing of the initial taper of balance sheet reinvestment DB writes that it will be a September announcement and October commencement remains most likely (in line with consensus), and the Committee can get by without giving any more specific guidance on timing even within this week’s statement given these relatively strongly held market expectations. In FX, the dollar rose against most major peers ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, though options show traders are betting the euro will see more upside. The euro dropped as much as 0.3 percent to $1.1613, the lowest in nearly a week before rebounding back to 1.65 as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for a third day. And yet, as discussed on Monday, three-month 25-delta risk-reversal for Euro options - insurance against a sharp drop in the USD - was at the highest since 2009 “There is a bit of temptation to get caught up in the current wave of euro optimism by revising our baseline forecasts higher,” ING's Viraj Patel wrote. The strategists prefer to view the $1.16-$1.17 range as “a near-term overshoot.” On the political front, on Tuesday the US Senate received sufficient votes to proceed on GOP healthcare legislation motion debate, although the plan to repeal and replace Obamacare later failed to get enough votes for approval (43-57). More votes are expected. Elsewhere, the euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.1626. The British pound decreased 0.1 percent to $1.3018 after data showed the U.K. economy expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter, matching estimates. The yen was little changed at 111.84 per dollar after declining 0.7 percent on Tuesday. In commodities, as noted above West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.8% to $48.26 a barrel, the highest in seven weeks. Crude inventories declined by 10.2 million barrels last week according to the latest weekly API data. Copper gained 0.6 percent in its fifth consecutive advance. The Bloomberg Commodity Index climbed 0.1 percent while gold dipped 0.3 percent to $1,246.32 an ounce. In rates, 10Y TSY yields dipped two basis points to 2.31 percent, after surging eight basis points in the previous session. Germany’s 10-year yield decreased one basis point to 0.56 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 1.231 percent. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities enter the North American crossover in positive territory in what is set to be a busy day for earnings across the Atlantic UK GDP printed in-line with Exp. with all eyes now on today's FOMC announcement Looking ahead, highlights include DoE's and the FOMC rate decision Market Snpashot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,476.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 382.95 MXAP up 0.01% to 159.06 MXAPJ down 0.02% to 526.28 Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,050.16 Topix up 0.2% to 1,620.88 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 26,941.02 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,247.68 Sensex up 0.4% to 32,358.18 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 5,776.63 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,434.51 German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 0.549% Euro down 0.3% to 1.1617 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.7% to $50.56/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 9.0 bps to 1.853% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.525% Brent Futures up 0.7% to $50.56/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,245.36 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 94.27 Top Overnight News from BBG Senate Republicans have embarked on an unpredictable and potentially chaotic floor debate aimed at repealing Obamacare amid significant doubts that they can muster 50 votes to pass any kind of health bill Oil extended gains from the highest close in seven weeks as industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles plunged, easing a glut Copper surged to the highest level in more than two years, lifting shares of producers including Glencore Plc, on expectations that demand in China will fuel a global shortage, with plans in the country to curb metal-rich waste imports reinforcing a bullish outlook. Viacom has informed Scripps Networks Interactive that it is willing to pay all cash to buy the network operator, Reuters reports HNA Group Co.’s proposed $416 million investment in an in- flight entertainment and Internet-services provider collapsed after the two companies failed to get regulatory approval from the U.S. The U.K. economy’s lackluster performance extended into the second quarter, with growth only modestly picking up in the period The U.K. became the latest European country to mark the end of the line for diesel and gasoline fueled cars as automakers such as Volvo race to build electric vehicles or face the consequences of getting left behind ECB’s Nowotny sees no need to set timetable to end bond buying; BOJ’s Nakaso pledges to ’persistently continue’ powerful easing RBA’s Lowe says some coverage of neutral rate misinterpreted intention; doesn’t need to move in lockstep with other central banks; global tightening has no automatic implications for RBA Australia 2Q CPI 0.2% vs 0.4% est; trimmed mean 0.5% vs 0.5% est RBNZ’s McDermott says inflation pressures ’relatively moderate’; neutral interest rate estimated to be 3.5% API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude -10.2m; Cushing -2.6m; Gasoline +1.9m; Distillates -0.1m Russia Says New U.S. Sanctions Killing Chances for Improved Ties Russian Senator Suggests ‘Sanitary Sanctions’ Against McDonald’s SoftBank Is Said to Take Stake in Roomba Maker in Tech Buildout Luxury Brands Can Block Online Retailers: EU Court Aide Lawmakers Negotiating Self-Driving Car Bills Ahead of Markup Apple Judgment Increased to $506 Mln in Wisconsin Patent Case Ford Says to Challenge ACCC Allegation on Transmissions Issue Transwestern Has Force Majeure in N.M. After Mechanical Failure KKR’s Rockecharlie Sees Energy Asset-Sales Mkt Reaching $90B UniCredit Says 400,000 Clients Affected by Security Breach Asia equity markets were mostly higher following a record setting day on Wall St. where the S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted fresh all-time highs as earnings buoyed sentiment, with gains led by strength in financials and energy sectors. ASX 200 (+0.6%) outperformed in Asia as the commodity sector shined with copper at 26-month highs and after oil gained over 2% amid a larger than expected drawdown in API crude inventories. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) was bolstered by a softer JPY, while Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (+0.35%) both initially conformed to the advances after the IMF's recent upgrade on China growth forecasts and alongside the PBoC's continued liquidity efforts with a CNY 130b1n injection today. However, mainland stocks then pulled back on regulatory concerns. Finally, 10yr JGBs tracked the softness in T-notes with demand also dampened as participants shifted positions into riskier Japanese assets, while today's Rinban announcement was for a relatively modest JPY 400bn. PBoC injected CNY 80bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 50bln in 28-day reverse repos. Australian CPI (Q2) Q/Q 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prey. 0.5%). (Newswires) Australian CPI (Q2) Y/Y 1.9% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prey. 2.1%) Top Asian News Bankers Ditch Fat Salaries to Chase Digital Currency Riches Vietnam 7-Month Disbursed FDI Seen at $9.05B, up 5.8% Y/Y China Plans to Begin Trial of Spot Power Trading, Daily Says Investors ’Cautiously Opportunistic’ on Asia Hedge Funds: DB European bourses have followed their US counterparts (Eurostoxx 50 +0.3%) and have begun their Q2 earnings season on the front foot. EU major equity markets all trade in the green; with sector support coming from Energy, as the oil heavyweights have seen a bid following the unexpected 10m1n draw in last night's API report. European auto names have seen mixed performance with Peugeot (+5.3%) and Daimler (-0.2%); post-earnings. European fixed income future markets followed the risk tone overnight and ground lower throughout trade. However, a marginal bid has been seen through the European morning, following the slight gap up seen in German and UK paper. In the periphery, Spanish front-end bonds have seen modest selling pressure with some attributing this to speculation over selling this week from international real money accounts, according to IFR. Top European News EU to Update Poland Sanctions Stance After Court-Revamp Veto Italy Confidence Gauges Rise, While Jobless Worries Keep Growing U.K. FCA Extends Senior Managers Regime to All Financial Firms ITV Gains as Stable Outlook Soothes Brexit Advertising Concerns Swedish Government Faces No Confidence Votes After IT Scandal ASMI Slides on ASM Pacific Unit 3Q Bookings Outlook In currencies, all eyes for GBP were placed on domestic UK GDP figures ahead of next week's 'Super Thursday' at the BoE. However, markets were left relatively unfazed after in-line readings for both the Y/Y and Q/Q. In terms of components of the release, construction and manufacturing were the largest downward pulls on quarterly GDP growth, following 2 consecutive quarters of growth. CAD buying looks to have petered out given the relatively unfazed reaction to the huge 10mln drawdown in US crude oil inventories, as shown by last night's API's. 1.25 support in USD/CAD remaining firm with 1.2461 (2016 low) another level to the downside offering near term support. USD-index a touch higher heading into FOMC meeting having consolidated above 94.00. In commodities, crude oil was the noticeable mover following the US closing bell yesterday in the wake of the 10.2mln bpd draw seen during last night's API release which saw WTI futures break through USD 48.00/bbl. The long-term 2017 range continues, as the 42.00/bbl level acted as support, if a firm break through the 49 handle can be seen, markets could eye a test of 52/bbl. Gold and other precious metals have seen marginal selling pressure over the week, as gold failed to test 1260/oz. The risk on sentiment has also weighed on the market, largely trading in tandem with treasury markets, as many await tonight's FOMC.The API Crude Oil Inventory Report saw a huge drawdown of -10,200K (Prey. 1628K). Will it be confirmed by today's DOE report? Turning to today’s data releases, the focus will turn to the US with the July FOMC rate decision due. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 6.3% 10am: New Home Sales, est. 615,000, prior 610,000; MoM, est. 0.82%, prior 2.9% 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to another FOMC decision day, although given its late July and given the Fed will likely announce an end to balance sheet reinvestment in September (starting from October), this could be a relatively dull meeting. Famous last words. We'll provide a slightly more detailed preview in the day ahead at the end. Before this excitement ahead, global equity markets picked up steam yesterday with both US (S&P +0.3%) and European (STOXX 600 +0.4%) equities posting gains. Decent earnings, a strong German IFO and the promise of Saudi oil production cuts underpinned risk markets and led to a notable sell-off in bonds. The uptick in the US drove the S&P 500 to a new all-time high, with the Energy (+1.3%) and Financials (+1.3%) sectors the biggest gainers in the US. At one stage the VIX hit what would have been an all-time closing low of 9.04 before retracing into the close to be unchanged at 9.43 and the 9th successive close below 10 - the longest ever streak, comfortably beating the 4 days it spent below 10 in December 1993. Over in Europe the STOXX 600 index was led by large gains in Basic Resources (+2.6%) and Banks (+1.6%). European equity performance was consistently strong across regions as well, with the DAX (+0.5%), FTSE (+0.8%), CAC (+0.7%) and FTSE MIB (+0.6%) all rising on the day. As touched on above, the commodity complex was helped as oil prices jumped by 3.3% - first on news that Saudi Arabia is planning deep crude export cuts next month and then climbed another 1.5% immediately after the US close on news that API was reporting Crude inventories falling 10.2m barrels last week. It has retracted around half a percent this morning. Over in government bond markets, yields rose across all maturities for both German Bunds (2Y: unch; 10Y: +6bps) and US Treasuries (2Y: +3bps; 10Y: +8bps). Both curves saw a general steepening which likely helped drive the strong bank equity performance yesterday. Gilts (2Y: +3bps; 10Y: +7bps), OATs (2Y +2bps; 10Y +7bps) and BTPs (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +9bps) also exhibited similar moves. Turning to currency markets, the US dollar index was up a touch (0.1%) yesterday while the Euro (vs USD) was flat at 1.1646 having climbed to a high of 1.171 intraday. Sterling was flat on the day following larger intra-day gains of around 0.5%. A tweet from Donald Trump suggesting that the US was working on a trade deal with the UK seemed to help for a while. Precious metals were lower on the day (Gold -0.4%; Silver -0.1%) while industrial metals were mixed (Copper +0.4%; Aluminium -0.2%). Agricultural commodities were broadly lower on the day. Away from the data, Trump’s efforts to repeal Obamacare took a small step forward yesterday, securing enough votes (51 to 50) to allow senators to start debating on the healthcare legislation. The narrow win was sealed with the help of Vice President Pence and the ailing Senator McCain flying in to help. Trump has called the win a “giant step”, but this morning, the senate has rejected Senator’s McConnell’s replacement plan by a vote of 43-57. More attempts will be made today to find a proposal that will pass. Elsewhere, in an interview with the WSJ, Trump said he may reappoint Yellen for a second term (expires in Feb) and noted that “I like her” and “I like to see rates stay low…she’s historically been a low rate person…” Gary Cohn was also touted as a potential contender. Mr Trump also said in the interview that his next priority is overhauling the tax code. This morning in Asia, markets have been a little more mixed after yesterday's US/European strength, with the Nikkei (+0.4%), Kospi (-0.3%), Hang Seng (unch) and the 3 Chinese bourses down -0.4 to 0.8%. Treasuries have given up -1.5bps of their climb yesterday. Also, AU’s headline 2Q CPI missed expectations (1.9% yoy, vs 2.2% expected; 2.1% previous), with the miss mainly in the food group. However, the more important weighted median inflation came in at 1.8% yoy (vs 1.7% expected; 1.7% previous). DB’s Adam Boyton believes the data will be largely viewed as 'in line with RBA’s expectations'. The AUDUSD fell 0.3%. Taking a look at yesterday’s calendar, data out of Europe was broadly positive. In Germany we saw the IFO business climate reading unexpectedly tick up (116 vs. 114.9 expected; 115.1 previous) to hit its highest levels since the German reunification. This increase was driven by unexpected positive surprises in both the expectations index (107.3 vs. 106.5 expected; 106.8 previous) and current assessment index (125.4 vs. 123.8 expected; 124.1 previous), the latter of which was also at its historical high. We also saw the latest set of confidence indicators out of France, with the both the business (108 vs. 106 expected) and manufacturing (109 vs. 108 expected) confidence indicators for July beating expectations. Over in the US we saw some soft housing market data for May with the FHFA House Price Index (+0.4% mom vs. +0.5% expected) and the S&P 20- City House Price index (+0.10% mom vs. +0.30% expected) both disappointing. On a more positive note we also got the July readings for the conference board consumer confidence indicator which unexpectedly surprised on the upside (121.1 vs.116.5 expected; 118.9 previous), as the present conditions measure rose to a 16-year high of 147.8 (146.3 previous) and consumer expectations for the next six months rose to 103.3 (100.6 previous). The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (14 vs. 7 expected) also rose against expectations of holding steady in July. Before we look at the day ahead, yesterday saw the DB House View team publish their latest report yesterday highlighting their key views on global macro and markets. They note that the global economy is in better shape than it has been in several years and this has allowed global central banks to follow the Fed and gradually start to normalise monetary policy. While inflation is still below target, the House View team expects that labour market tightness will soon feed into wages, driving core inflation higher over the medium-term in the US and Europe and thus supporting further monetary tightening and a normalisation of yield curves. On this note they expect that the Fed will likely announce a taper of balance sheet reinvestment in September and will hike rates again in December. As for the ECB, they note that rate hikes are still far off and expect the announcement of another QE extension and tapering in October. Away from central banks, the team notes that their global macro outlook is little changed for this year as they expect growth to rebound from post-crisis lows seen in 2016. With regard to markets they remain constructive on risk assets expecting material upside to US equities and positive but more balanced performance in EM. In FX they note that there are signs the dollar has peaked, but do not expect a material devaluation yet. They are more positive on the euro, seeing upside versus the dollar and sterling. In rates they expect yield curves to normalise gradually, but there is risk of a more sudden upward shift, depending on the path of core inflation. A link to the full report is https://goo.gl/e5SKDP Turning to today’s data releases, Europe will see the consumer confidence reading out of France (108 expected; 108 previous) followed by UK Q2 GDP (1.7% YoY expected). Thereafter the focus will turn to the US with the July FOMC rate decision due. We recap the views of US economists (as highlighted in Monday’s EMR) who expect that the Fed is unlikely to take any action in a policy firming direction at the meeting this week, partly because inflation has continued to surprise to the downside as of late. They do expect the statement to focus on how the Fed will handle the dichotomy between a resumption of moderate growth and continuing improvement in the labour market on one hand and ongoing softness in inflation on the other. On the topic of the timing of the initial taper of balance sheet reinvestment the team believes that a September announcement and October commencement remains most likely (in line with consensus), and the Committee can get by without giving any more specific guidance on timing even within this week’s statement given these relatively strongly held market expectations. Away from data, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will be the first speaker following the FOMC decision. On the earnings front Coca-Cola, Ford, Boeing and Facebook are due to report today
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По итогам торгов вторника США индекс Dow Jones вырос на 0.47%, S&P – на 0.29%, Nasdaq – на 0.02%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло 21617.83 уровня пункта, S&P – 2477.13 пункта, Nasdaq – 6412.17 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND вырос на 0,66% и составил 65 527,87 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 прибавил 0.77% и закрылся на уровне 7434, 82 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 вырос на 0,65% и закрылся на уровне 5 161, 08 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX вырос на 0,45% и к закрытию составил 12 264, 31 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei поднялось к настоящему времени на 0,43% и составило 20 041,5 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 опустился на 0,38% и находится на уровне 3 705,388 пункта. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG поднялся на 0,15% и находится на уровне 26 892,8 пункта.
Торги на крупнейшей в Азии Токийской фондовой бирже завершились ростом основных индексов на фоне ослабления иены и в ожидании публикации отчетности японских корпораций.Ключевой индекс Nikkei, отражающий колебания курсов акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, вырос на 0,48%, до 20 050,16 пункта. Более широкий индекс TOPIX, отражающий...
Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона в основном повышаются, поскольку сильные результаты корпоративной прибыли и оптимистичные экономические данные повысили уверенность в силе мировой экономики. Кроме того, более высокие цены на сырьевые товары подняли акции горнорудных и энергетических компаний. Тем не менее, инвесторы осторожно перед публикацией решения Федерального резерва США по денежно-кредитной политике в будущем. Ожидается, что ФРС оставит процентные ставки без изменений, но инвесторы будут уделять пристальное внимание сопроводительному заявлению относительно подсказок по касательно будущих повышений ставок. Австралийский рынок растет, в основном за счет увеличения цен на акции горнорудных и энергетических компаний. Бумаги BHP Billion и Rio Tinto подорожали более чем на 3% каждый, в то время как акции Fortescue Metals выросли в цене более чем на 5% после того, как цены на медь увеличились до самого высокого уровня за последние два года. Рыночная стоимость Oil Search и Woodside Petroleum увеличилась более чем на 2%, а бумаги Santos подорожали более чем на 3% после скачка цен на сырую нефть. Японский рынок продвигается, а настроения инвесторов подкрепляются положительными результатами торгов на Уолл-стрит и более слабой иеной. Акции Toshiba и Sony подорожали на 1%, Panasonic - на 0,5%, а Canon - 0,4%. Среди автопроизводителей, рыночная стоимость Toyota увеличилась более чем на 1%, а Honda - почти на 1%, в то время как акции Mazda Motor и Mitsubishi Motors выросли в цене более чем на 5% каждый. NIKKEI 20048.62 +93.42 +0.47% SHANGHAI 3231.74 -11.95 -0.37% HSI 26850.34 -1.71 -0.01% ASX 200 5782.30 +55.70 +0.97% KOSPI 2435.18 -4.72 -0.19% NZ50 7708.02 -5.04 -0.06% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei -20.47 19955.20 -0.10% TOPIX -4.50 1617.07 -0.28% Hang Seng +5.22 26852.05 +0.02% CSI 300 -23.91 3719.56 -0.64% Euro Stoxx 50 +20.37 3473.54 +0.59% FTSE 100 +57.09 7434.82 +0.77% DAX +55.36 12264.31 +0.45% CAC 40 +33.38 5161.08 +0.65% DJIA +100.26 21613.43 +0.47% S&P 500 +7.22 2477.13 +0.29% NASDAQ +1.36 6412.17 +0.02% S&P/TSX +73.68 15202.37 +0.49% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,468.25 (-0.12%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.28% до уровня 5,908.50. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют рост. Nikkei 20,099.75 -44.84 -0.22% Hang Seng 26,706.09 -34.12 -0.13% Shanghai 3,238.16 -6.71 -0.21% S&P/ASX 5,722.84 38.61 -0.67% FTSE 7,477.81 -10.06 -0.13% CAC 5,147.73 -51.49 -0.99% DAX 12,255.53 -191.72 -1.54% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $46.50 за баррель (-0.90%) Золото торгуется по $1,251.70 за унцию (+0.50%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительное снижение. Инвесторы анализируют множество квартальных отчетов от важных американских компаний, в том числе Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Honeywell (HON) и Visa (V) и другие. Все четыри компании показали превысившие ожидания показатели выручки и прибыли, но только акции V демонстрируют повышение (на 0.7%), тогда как акции MSFT, HON и GE упали на 0.9%, 0.1% и 3% соответственно. На следующей недели свои отчеты представят Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Verizon (VZ), Boeing (BA), Procter & Gamble (PG), Intel (INTC), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), Coca-Cola (KO), 3M (MMM) и многие другие. Важная макростатистика перед открытием торговой сессии не публиковалась; не будет таковой и после начала торгов.Источник: FxTeam
Основные фондовые площадки Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР) завершили торги пятницы преимущественно в минусе; японский фондовый индекс Nikkei 225 оказался к концу торгов также в "красной зоне" из-за удорожания иены, свидетельствуют данные торгов.
The euro's surge to an almost two-year high put a cap on the global market rally in Friday's quiet session, with most major exchanges consolidating after a second strong week of gains. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index declined for first time in ten days while the European Stoxx 600 index was fractionally in the green as were US equity futures ahead of earnings reports from General Electric, Honeywell, Schlumberger and others. Oil gained with Brent flirting with $50, zinc rallied along with most base metals. European stocks are little changed, while Asian stocks decline with Tokyo shares falling for first time in three days. Also overnight, AUD traders were caught wrongfooted for the second time in one week after the Aussie fell sharply following an unexpectedly dovish speech from RBA Deputy Governor Debelle, who said there’s no significance in the board’s neutral rate discussion, which earlier this week sent the Aussie surging. "No significance should be read into the fact the neutral rate was discussed at this particular meeting," Debelle said in text of speech. "Most meetings, the board allocates some time to discussing a policy-relevant issue in more detail, and on this occasion it was the neutral rate." In addition to the drop in AUDUSD, Australian sovereign yields all dropped 5-7 basis points in bull steepening move; three-year yield drops as much as nine basis points to 2.00% - the steepest decline since March on a closing basis. Kiwi rallied to highest since September 2016 on Finance Minister Joyce comments; yen little changed. S&P futures near unchanged. WTI crude holds near $47; Dalian iron ore falls 0.7%. But most of the attention was on the EUR in the aftermath of Thursday's paradoxical Draghi press conference, which led to a "bipolar" market reaction, seen as dovish by rates while hawkish by FX. Summarizing the market reaction, Yann Quelenn, a market strategist at Swissquote Bank said,“Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged. But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise." As a result, bonds jumped even as the euro headed for its strongest level against the dollar in almost two years on bets the European Central Bank will start tapering its stimulus program despite Draghi's sounding particularly dovish, with the greenback already under pressure from U.S. political developments. Yields on Italian bonds dropped... ... while the EUR surged to the highest since August of 2015, and is up 11% for 2017... ... while the US dollar dropped to the lowest since August amid growing political concerns after reports that U.S. special counsel Robert Mueller expanded his investigation of Trump less than a day after the president told the New York Times that any digging into his finances would cross a red line. “Everything speaks in favor of further EUR appreciation -- increasing portfolio inflows, changing monetary policy, improved political risks,” according to Peter Kinsella, a London-based senior foreign-exchange and rates strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “It’s an armor-plated rally and it won’t stop” Euro zone stock markets were modestly lower on the day, as some analysts against expressing concerns a stronger euro may do more to undermine growth going forward. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe was steady after rising for a 10th straight session on Thursday, its longest such streak since February 2015. It has advanced around 3 percent in the latest rally. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, which has gained about 5 percent in the past two weeks, eased 0.2 percent, dragged down by a fall in material and financial shares. Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.2 percent. "We can be pretty sure that when Draghi sat down for his press conference yesterday the last thing he expected to see was the euro hit its highest level in over two years and for equity markets to slide back," said CMC Markets analyst Michael Hewson. "The strength of the euro does appear to be acting as a bit of a headwind for European stocks as they look to close the week sharply lower, in contrast to the performance of UK and US stocks this week." As of 6:10am ET, S&P500 futures were little-changed close to a record-high level as investors looked forward to a Federal Reserve meeting and manufacturing data next week. E-mini contracts were almost flat at 2,472.25 after the cash index ended Thursday within one point of its record-high close. Nasdaq 100 futures were also little-changed as the benchmark index climbed to all-time intraday highs for the second consecutive day. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average also held steady on Friday. European stocks are little changed, while Asian stocks decline with Tokyo shares falling for first time in three days. In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Index was down 0.1 percent, in line for a weekly loss of 0.8 percent, at 10:41 a.m. in London, as the greenback weakened against most of its G-10 peers. The yen was up 0.2 percent at 111.71 per dollar. The euro climbed 0.1 percent to $1.1642 after reaching a 23-month high earlier in the session. The common currency has gained 1.6 percent this week, its second straight five-day advance. In commodities, oil headed for a second weekly increase as U.S. crude inventories continued to shrink. West Texas Intermediate was 0.4 percent higher at $47.09 a barrel. Copper advanced 1.3 percent to $6,033 a ton, a four month high, leading a rally in industrial metals. Gold was poised for its first back-to-back weekly advance since June 2. Bullion for immediate delivery added 0.2 percent to $1,247.25 an ounce. In rates, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries fell two basis points to 2.24 percent. Benchmark yields in Germany dropped three basis points to 0.5 percent, down nine points this week. Yields in France dipped three basis points. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg RBA speakers temper AUD appreciation EU equities trade subdued following yesterday's volatility Germany and Turkey traded barbs over democratic values as relations between the NATO allies slumped to their lowest ebb of the postwar period. The International Monetary Fund agreed to a new conditional bailout for Greece, ending two years of speculation on whether it would join in another rescue and giving the seal of approval demanded by many of the country’s euro-area creditors. As Parliament breaks for the summer, Prime Minister Theresa May needs to come up with answers to the political drama unfolding at home and threatening her Brexit strategy as investors predict more trouble on the horizon for a country once seen as the stable counterpoint to European turmoil. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures rise 0.2% to 2475.20 STOXX Europe 600 unchanged at 384.07 MXAP down 0.2% to 159.13 MXAPJ down 0.2% to 524.46 Nikkei down 0.2% to 20,099.75 Topix down 0.2% to 1,629.99 Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 26,706.09 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,237.98 Sensex up 0.04% to 31,918.38 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,722.84 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,450.06 EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.1641 USD/JPY: -0.2% at 111.71 GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.3005 German 10Y yield fell 2.3 bps to 0.507% Italian 10Y yield fell 7.8 bps to 1.821% Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.4 bps to 1.441% Brent Futures up 0.7% to $49.62/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,247.58 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 94.17 Top Overnight News Trump Inquires About Power to Pardon; Aussie Tumbles After RBA Comments; Power Struggle at Guggenheim Trump Removal of Mueller Likely Would Trigger Justice Purge Ten of the nation’s biggest lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. together made $30 billion last quarter, just a few hundred million short of the record in the second quarter of 2007 Mario Draghi said policy makers are still waiting for inflation to catch up with the economic recovery as they put off discussions on winding back stimulus until after the summer President Donald Trump’s interview with the New York Times on stirred speculation he may consider firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller for investigating Trump’s business dealings as part of the Russia probe The International Monetary Fund agreed to a new conditional bailout for Greece, ending two years of speculation on whether it would join in another rescue and giving the seal of approval demanded by many of the country’s euro-area creditors OPEC and Russia’s plan to clear the global oil glut hasn’t worked as they hoped, but there’s little expectation the world’s largest producers will act more aggressively when they meet this weekend Investors may turn to equity at the expense of debt given he rolling five-year return on global stocks has outpaced government debt over the past three months as weighted by the standard deviation of gains ACS Studies Counterbid to Atlantia’s $19 Billion Abertis Offer Paysafe Gets 590p/Share Takeover Proposal from CVC, Blackstone Microsoft Regains Turnaround Momentum on Strong Cloud Growth EBay Rattles Investor Faith With Slow Merchandise Growth Visa’s Kelly Extends First-Year Win Streak as Outlook Raised Zinc’s Rally Set to Endure as Top Producer Predicts $3,000 Google Says Russia Leads in State Requests to Remove Content Exxon to Challenge Treasury Finding It Violated Russia Sanctions Credit Suisse’s Once-Mighty Stocks Unit Withers Under Thiam Delta Wins Lease Deal for Air Terminal at New York’s LaGuardia Asia equity markets traded marginally in the red, following the lacklustre close on Wall St. amid a slew of earnings releases which were ultimately mixed. ASX 200 underperformed, led by the soft resources, metals and energy sectors, whilst Nikkei 225 also traded in the red to conform to the tone in the region, as JPY's indecision during the session offered no direction for the currency. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. and Hang Seng both traded subdued, with the PBoC's increased open market operations of CNY 140bln failing to lift the Chinese bourses. Finally, 10yr JGBs trade marginally higher amid the cautiousness in the region, with the curve steepening as the super-long end underperforms. Participants also await the auction for 10yr, 20yr and 30yr government paper. Top Asian News HNA Group’s Dealings With U.S. Travel Startup to Be Probed OZ Minerals Says CFO Luke Anderson to Leave Co. in September Bank Indonesia Says Rate Review Delayed by Swearing-in Ceremony RBA’s Aussie Dollar Rollercoaster Shows Dilemma for Global Peers Reliance to Give One Free Share for Each Held After 8-Year Gap Huhtamaki Shares Fall as Indian Tax Reform Hits Demand China Artificial Intelligence Bid Seeks $59 Billion Industry AAC Drops Most in 7 Years as Jefferies Cites Revenue Warning European equity markets trade mixed amid currency influence. Subdued trade has been evident, following yesterday's ECB press conference, with EU bourses trading range bound for the morning. The FTSE out-performs as it benefits from the weaker GBP. Telecoms out-perform as earnings continue to dictate the state of play, following a strong report from T-Mobile US being followed by a beat for Vodafone. Fixed Income markets have been led by bunds, with the latest ECB survey being responsible for a second round of bidding in German paper. The survey cut the inflation forecast by 0.10% for 2017 — 2019, with the statement stating that risks are still tilted to the downside. Top European News U.K. Government Borrowing Jumps as Inflation Boosts Debt Costs Landis+Gyr Trades Below Offer in Largest Swiss IPO Since 2006 European Banks’ 2Q Likely to Be Better Than U.S. Peers: HSBC SKF CEO Says Electric Cars May Hurt Part of Bearing Business ECB: Professional Forecasters Cut Inflation Outlook Through 2019 Siemens Slams Brakes on Russia After Turbines Spotted in Crimea Hochtief Slumps as ACS Mulling Abertis Bid Lowers Buyout Chance Swatch’s Strong Forecast Bolsters Decision to Keep Workers In currencies, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle stated no automatic reason to conform to recent hikes abroad. New Zealand Finance Minister Joyce stated NZ firms are coping well with NZD at current levels, added NZD reflects strong NZ economy. FX markets have slowed this morning, as FX traders seem non-excitant following yesterday's volatility. The price action largely came overnight from the antipodeans. Comments from New Zealand's Finance Minister Joyce stated that NZ firms are coping well with NZD at current levels further adding that a strong NZD reflects strong NZ economy and he is unperturbed by NZD strength. NZD/AUD broke through 0.94 as bulls arrived, consolidating just below at 0.9390, a firm break of this level could see a test of 0.9480. Further, Aussie weakness aided the NZD/AUD push, as RBA Deputy Governor Debelle stated that there is no automatic reason to conform to recent hikes abroad. In commodities, precious metals have continued their bullish grind, spurred by the Trump reports yesterday. Gold looks toward 1250.00, as July's recovery continues. Oil continues to struggle to find any real direction, however, WTI's July 43.65 upward trendline continues to provide support, WTI bulls would need to see a firm break of 48.50 to indicate a change in momentum No economic data is scheduled in the US. DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Good practise today for the arrival of the twins as a late night work dinner coupled with waking 45 minutes before my already early alarm has left me feeling decidedly sleep deprived. It was an interesting macro dinner with 26 clients and DB representatives including our own CEO. The consensus from clients seemed to be that the carry trade would survive the summer but with question marks about what happens once both the ECB and the Fed start their imminent balance sheet changes. There was plenty of optimism on Europe with the Euro seen as likely to appreciate further with perhaps that appreciation eventually being the risk to growth. On the other hand there was plenty of negativity on the UK with Brexit seen as a potential disaster for the economy, Gilts and Sterling. I'm not quite so sure on the Brexit impact but there is certainly huge execution risk. Curveballs that could derail the short-term carry party were that Mr Trump might decide to turn to the delicate geo-political issues (e.g. North Korea) to divert attention away from the legislative challenges and also that the upcoming debt ceiling deadline around October could be really interesting. The latter being another test of Mr Trump's relationship with Congress. Finally on the dinner, one client remarked that this was the first of such gatherings in a long time where nobody had really mentioned buying very historically cheap volatility. That he thought might be a sign that now might be the time. So an interesting night and given that it occurred on an important Draghi day it was interesting that there wasn't much discussion on what he said at his press conference. All the talk yesterday leading into the event was on whether or not we would get an affirmation of the hawkish signals made in Sintra last month. In the end it felt like Draghi was checking in for his summer holiday, not pulling back from the Sintra sentiments but also not wanting to rock the boat with new info and risk being called back from hols to deal with a disturbed market in illiquid conditions. In fairness it wasn’t a completely damp squib and we thought our European chief economist Mark Wall summed it up nicely with a “two steps forward, one step back” conclusion. Mark noted a few dovish elements from the meeting including the unchanged language on inflation in the press statement, the fact that the committees have not yet been tasked with studying the policy options, the use of Praet’s more cautious “patience” watchword, the technical reinterpretation of the word “reflation” he used in Sintra, and once again the confidence in the flexibility of the asset purchase programme which in Mark’s mind is a hint that if it needs to continue it can. On the other hand, Draghi appeared fairly undeterred by the post-Sintra tightening of markets which seemed to give the green light for the Euro to surge another 1% yesterday and break-through 1.160 for the first time since August 2015. Govies chopped around but the range for core markets wasn’t particularly ground breaking. 10y Bunds traded as high at 0.557% and as low as 0.520% in a short space of time before eventually finishing near the bottom of that range and 1.2bps lower on the day. French and Dutch 10y bonds were also 2.6bps and 1.4bps lower. There was a decent rally for the periphery however with yields in Italy and Spain 8.4bps and 9.6bps lower, respectively. It was notable that the move for latter now means that the Spain-Germany 10y spread is at the narrowest since 2015. So where does that leave the ECB? With the council deliberately avoiding setting expectations for the timing of a policy decision, Mark believes that this reduces the probability of a decision as soon as September. December might however also be considered too late and so in Mark’s view an announcement on October 26th now feels most likely with committees tasked on September 7th. The onus now will be on the inflation data in the coming months. Financial conditions and of course economic growth shouldn’t be underestimated either. Next month’s Jackson Hole speech will benefit from another month of inflation data and is likely to be the next big event for markets. That rally for the Euro appeared to weigh on equity bourses in Europe with the Stoxx 600 eventually closing -0.38%. Across the pond the S&P 500 slipped into the red in the first hour of trading after US special counsel Robert Mueller announced that he was examining a broad range of financial transactions involving President Trump. That story broke one day after Trump told the NY Times that any investigations around his personal finances would be crossing a red line. Markets recovered however and the S&P 500 (-0.02%) eventually ended little changed. The Dollar index ended the session down -0.50% while Gold was +0.26%. This morning in Asia it’s been a fairly quiet end to the week although the tone is slightly risk off. The Nikkei (-0.25%), Hang Seng (-0.24%), Shanghai Comp (-0.11%) and ASX (-0.40%) have all slipped into the red. Commodities are broadly unchanged along with the USD. Jumping to the latest on Brexit, this morning the Guardian are reporting that the UK cabinet will agree to the free movement of EU citizens for up to 4 years as part of a transitional deal. The article suggests that a consensus in the cabinet has been secured, with the news likely to help the softer-Brexit camp. One to watch today potentially. Yesterday’s economic data was a bit of a sideshow but for completeness, in the UK, June retail sales (ex-auto fuel) was slightly higher than expectations (+0.9% mom vs. +0.5% expected). Over in the US initial jobless claims fell 15k to 233k last week, lower than expectations of 245k while the Philadelphia Fed’s headline manufacturing index fell 8.1pts to a still solid 19.5 in July, albeit a bit below market expectations (23.0), with many of the key component indices also weaker (including shipments and new orders index). Before we take a look at today’s calendar, this morning our European equity strategy team have published a first take on Q2 earnings season. DB’s Wolf von Rotberg highlights that so far Q2 is off to a weak start: with around 20% of Stoxx 600 companies having reported, only 47% of companies have beaten on EPS, down from the stellar 63% in Q1 and below the historical average of 53%. Most of the reports so far are from non-euro earners – and with the euro up 4% during Q2, FX pressures are likely to keep the Q2 beat ratio subdued once the euro earners start reporting. FX strength is also leaving its mark on the full-yearconsensus earnings expectations, with Euro area earnings revisions having turned sharply negative over the past two weeks. The team see downside risk to their expectation of 10% EPS growth this year, given our FX strategists’ recent 14% upward revision to their year-end projection for the EUR trade-weighted index (every 10% rise in the EUR TWI lowers EPS by 5%). Looking at what is a very quiet day ahead now. In the UK, public sector net borrowing data for June is due. Across the Atlantic, there are no prints due in the US, however Canada will release data on June CPI (Bloomberg est: 1.1% yoy) which could worth a watch given the recent focus on global inflation. Away from the data, US earnings seasons remains a focus, with General Electric, Honeywell International, Colgate-Palmolive and Fifth Third Bancorp schedule to report.
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По итогам торгов четверга США индекс Dow Jones снизился на 0,13%, S&P опустился– на 0,02%, Nasdaq прибавил 0,08%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 21 616,18 пункта, S&P – 2 473,45 пункта, Nasdaq – 6 390 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND упал на 0,31% и составил 64 980,96 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 вырос на 0,77% и закрылся на уровне 7 487,87 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 упал на 0,32% и закрылся на уровне 5 199,22 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX снизился на 0,04% и к закрытию составил 12,447.25 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei опустилось к настоящему времени на 0,25% и составило 20 093,9 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 опустился на 0,12% и находится на уровне 3 743, 387 пункта.
Торги на крупнейшей в Азии Токийской фондовой бирже завершились в пятницу снижением основных индексов на фоне фиксации прибыли после двухдневного роста и ослабления курса доллара к иене.Ключевой индекс Nikkei, отражающий колебания курсов акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, снизился на 0,22%, до 20 099,75 пункта. Более широкий...
2013 г. стал лучшим для японского фондового рынка с 1972 г. Индекс Nikkei 225 вырос на по итогам уходящего года на 57%, чему способствовали удешевление иены и рост прибыльности японских корпораций. Этот год запомнится экономическими экспериментами, которые проводили многие страны. Самый грандиозный из них проходит в Японии. Японская валюта потеряла около 21% с начала года, что стало одним из главных катализаторов роста. Последний раз подобное удешевление иены наблюдалось только в 1979 г. Чистая прибыль выросла до 5,5 трлн иен ($55 млрд) в целом по 1280 крупнейшим нефинансовым компаниям Японии. Прибыль росла самыми быстрыми темпами с 2010 г., показатель в прошлом году составил 2,25 трлн иен. Рост прибыли был зафиксирован у таких компаний, как Panasonic, которая сократила 71 тыс. рабочих мест, Mazda Motor, перенесшей производство автомобилей в Мексику, и Toyota Motor, которая остановила строительство нового завода. Изменение ВВП Японии, г/г В настоящий момент ситуация на иностранных рынках складывается в пользу японских компаний. Однако ситуация с внутренним спросом остается сложной. По опросу экономистов, проведенном агентством Bloomberg, в следующем году темпы роста зарплат составят лишь 0,6%, в то время как уровень инфляции может превысить 3%. Таким образом, заработные платы будут расти в пять раз медленнее уровня цен. Это дополнительно сократит покупательную способность японцев и может сделать курс экономической политики, проводимый премьер-министром Синдзо Абэ, непопулярным.