Просим вас обратить внимание на изменение торгового времени по ряду инструментов, которое произойдет 4 июля в связи с празднованием Дня независимости в США. ИнструментИзменения в расписании торговBrent Crude OilWTI Crude Oil04.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:30 GMT05.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 00:05 GMTRussell 200003.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:15 GMT04.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 00:00 GMT04.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:00 GMT05.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 00:00 GMTCOFFEE, COCOA, SUGAR04.07 - торги закрытыWHEAT, CORN, SOYBEAN03.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:00 GMT04.07 - торги закрыты05.07 - открытие в 13:30 GMTCrude OilHeating OilHenry Hub Natural GasPlatinumPalladiumCopper04.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:00 GMT04.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 22:05 GMT S&P 500,Nasdaq 100Dow JonesNikkei 22503.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:15 GMT03.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 22:00 GMT04.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:00 GMT04.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 22:00 GMTGold, Silver04.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:00 GMT04.07 - открытие в обычном режиме в 22:05 GMT CHILE04.07 - торги закрытыCFD на американские акции03.07 - раннее закрытие в 17:00 GMT04.07 - торги закрыты Напоминаем вам, что расписание торгов в праздники по различным инструментам во многом зависит от наличия ликвидности, в связи с чем торговые часы могут измениться. Пожалуйста, учитывайте данный момент в своей торговле.
В среду, 28 июня, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали отрицательную динамику по итогам торговой сессии на фоне падения акций фармацевтических компаний, а также бумаг, относящихся к сектору IT. Тем не менее, поддержку азиатским рынкам пытались оказать бумаги сырьевого и банковского сектора. Также стоит отметить, что участники рынка негативно восприняли комментарии президента ФРБ Филадельфии Партика Харкера, который сообщил, что ФРС ожидает еще одного повышения процентной ставки до конца текущего года. Важной макроэкономической статистики по региону сегодня опубликовано не было. Сводный индекс региона MSCI Asia Pacific закрылся на отрицательной территории, просев на 0,2%. Японский Nikkei 225 упал на 0,49%, китайский Shanghai Composite уменьшился на 0,56%, гонконгский Hang Seng покраснел на 0,61%, южнокорейский KOSPI снизился на 0,39%, а австралийский ASX 200 увеличился на 0,73%.
Торги на Токийской фондовой бирже завершились снижением ведущих индексов на фоне фиксации прибыли.Ключевой для Японии индекс Nikkei, отражающий курсы акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, к окончанию операций опустился на 0,47%, до 20 130,41 пункта. Более широкий TOPIX, фиксирующий курсы акций всех компаний в элитной первой секции...
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По итогам торгов США во вторник индекс Dow Jones снизился на 0,46%, S&P – на 0,81%, Nasdaq – на 1,61%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 21 310,66 пункта, S&P – 2 419,38 пункта, Nasdaq – 6 146,62 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND упал на 0,82% и составил 61 675,46 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 потерял 0,17% и закрылся на уровне 7 434,36 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 снизился на 0,7% и закрылся на уровне 5 258,58 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX ослаб на 0,78% и к закрытию составил 12 671,02 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei опустилось к настоящему времени на 0,35% и составило 20 154,33 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 снизился на 0,48% и находится на уровне 3 657,21 пункта. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG упал на 0,41% и находится на уровне 25 734,1 пункта.
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei +71.74 20225.09 +0.36% TOPIX +6.81 1619.02 +0.42% Hang Seng -31.90 25839.99 -0.12% CSI 300 +6.63 3674.72 +0.18% Euro Stoxx 50 -23.44 3538.32 -0.66% FTSE 100 -12.44 7434.36 -0.17% DAX -99.81 12671.02 -0.78% CAC 40 -37.17 5258.58 -0.70% DJIA -98.89 21310.66 -0.46% S&P 500 -19.69 2419.38 -0.81% NASDAQ -100.53 6146.62 -1.61% S&P/TSX -34.80 15281.22 -0.23% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,434.50 (-0.06%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.40% до уровня 5,755.25. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют негативную динамику. Nikkei 20,225.09 +71.74 +0.36% Hang Seng 25,839.99 -31.90 -0.12% Shanghai 3,191.51 +6.07 +0.19% S&P/ASX 5,714.19 -5.97 -0.10% FTSE 7,433.86 -12.94 -0.17% CAC 5,259.10 -36.65 -0.69% DAX 12,689.72 -81.11 -0.64% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $43.98 за баррель (+1.38%) Золото торгуется по $1,249.80 за унцию (+0.27%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете незначительно снижаются, так как распродажа акций технологических компаний продолжается, тогда как инвесторы готовятся к выступлению главы Федеральной резервной системы США Йеллен (17:00 GMT). Речь Йеллен представляет особый интерес для участников рынка, так как многих интересует, считает ли она, что ослабление экономики США в последнее время является не более чем временным явлением. Кроме того, инвесторы надеются получить подсказку поддерживает ли глава американского регулятора прогноз FOMC относительно еще одного повышения ставки в этом году. Акции технологического сектора испытывают давление со стороны продавцов из-за опасений относительно высоких валюаций. Это побуждает инвесторов переключаться на так называемые "оборонительные" акции с высокими дивидендными выплатами, такие как акции компаний сектора коммунальных услуг. Кроме того, в фокусе находится отчет S&P, который показал, что цены на дома на одну семью в США ускорились более медленными темпами, чем ожидалось в апреле. Сводный индекс S&P / Case-Shiller для 20 мегаполисов вырос в апреле на 5.7% по сравнению с предыдущим годом, после увеличения на 5.9% в марте. Результаты апреля оказались ниже прогноза экономистов роста на 5.9%. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить новость о том, что ЕК оштрафовала Google Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) на рекордные 2.4 млрд. евро ($2.7 млрд.) за нарушение антимонопольного законодательства, так как компания систематически предлогала собственные результаты поиска выше, чем конкурентов. Антимонопольный регулятор ЕС заявил, что Google должен внести изменения в параметры работы в течение 90 дней или получит дополнительный штраф. В Google сообщили, что не согласны с выводами ЕК и рассматривают возможность подачи апелляции. Акции GOOG на премаркете снизились на 1%. После начала торгов влияние на их ход (помимо выступления главы ФРС) могут оказать данные по индикатору уверенности потребителей (14:00 GMT), а также комментарии президента ФРБ Филадельфии Патрика Харкера (15:15). После закрытия торговой сессии инвесторы обратят внимание на выступление президента ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари (21:30 GMT). Информационно-аналитический отдел ТелеТрейдИсточник: FxTeam
S&P futures were fractionally in the red, pressured by a drop in European shares following what several desks called a "hawkish shock" speech by Mario Draghi at the annual ECB forum in Portugal, even as oil rose for a fourth day, boosted by favoriable remarks from China's premier Li, while the Yuan surged 0.4% amid speculation of more PBOC interference in the yuan. The overnight session was divided in two parts: the early European focus on a spike higher in Chinese yuan, with some speculating on PBOC intervention, others cite tightening in yuan forward curve. Metals and crude both rallied broadly in response, USD pushed weaker against G-10. Speaking of the sharp move in both the onshore and offshore Yuan, Ken Cheung, a currency strategist at Mizuho told Bloomberg “This seems like intervention" and added that "They may be eager to keep the onshore yuan quarter-close to near 6.8 per dollar. The quarter-end rate may be an important indicator for foreign central bank reserve managers to consider adding the yuan as assets. Other reasons could be maintaining a strong yuan outlook before the launch of the Hong Kong bond connect." The initial PBOC-inspired euphoria was later doused by another central bank, this time the ECB, when a hawkish Draghi speech drove markets, sending the EUR/USD back to YTD highs, and leading to a sharp steepening in German 2s10s and Euribor curves. With the help of the sliding dollar, the Euro is now on pace for its best quarter in six years. European equity markets open lower led by sector-specific news. As noted earlier, the German auto sector was hit after supplier Schaeffler issued a surprisingly ugly profit warning, Deutsche Telekom weighed on Telecoms sector though basic resources shares were among those bucking the trend as commodities advanced. U.K. banks briefly sold off after BOE raises countercyclical capital buffer to 0.5% (and 1.0% as of November), while Google was down -2.6% in premarket trading after the EU competition commissioner announced a record €2.4BN fine for antitrust issues and skewing search results. Gold rebounded after an apparently erroneous order triggered a plunge in the price on Monday. The Chinese yuan surged both onshore and overseas amid speculation of central bank intervention. Treasuries slipped before an appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. With Draghi's hawkish outlook shocking markets, it is now up to Yellen. As Bloomberg notes, "traders will be looking to Yellen for clues on the outlook for interest rates and the American economy, especially after weakness in data yesterday added to concerns about the strength of growth. Some investors worry the Fed is taking too rosy a view as it sets the path for increasing borrowing costs. European Central Bank President Draghi struck a cautiously optimistic tone for the euro area, noting a “strengthening and broadening recovery” but stressing the need for prudence in adjusting policy." Elsewhere, as reported overnight, Brazilian President Michel Temer was charged with corruption in a highly anticipated development that may put the embattled leader of Latin America’s largest economy on trial. Temer, who has denied the charges, could lose his job if indicted and found guilty. India and Singapore reopened after holidays but many markets, including in Malaysia, Indonesia and most of the Middle East remain closed. Futures on the S&P 500 Index fell 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge rose less than one point on Monday. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4 percent. In currencies, the euro surged 0.6 percent to $1.1251. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent after gaining 0.1 percent in the previous session. The British pound added 0.1 percent to $1.2737. In commodities, WTI rose 0.8% to $43.73 a barrel, adding to a three-day rally following oil’s drop into a bear market. Gold increased 0.5 percent to $1,250.71 an ounce. The precious metal sank almost 1 percent on Monday. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 2.16%, after dropping less than one basis point on Monday. European government bonds dropped across the board, with the yield on benchmark French bonds climbing six basis points and that of Germany four basis points. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk: European equity markets trade lower amid hawkish comments from ECB's Draghi Bank of England Financial Stability Report; Countercyclical buffer for UK banks raised from 0.00% to 0.50% Highlights include Fed's Yellen, Harker and Kashkari Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,432.80 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 387.31 MXAP up 0.1% to 155.78 MXAPJ unchanged at 507.63 Nikkei up 0.4% to 20,225.09 Topix up 0.4% to 1,619.02 Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 25,839.99 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,191.20 Sensex down 0.9% to 30,864.71 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,714.19 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,391.95 Brent futures up 0.8% to $46.19/bbl Gold spot up 0.6% to $1,252.19 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 97.01 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 385.62 German 10Y yield rose 3.4 bps to 0.279% Euro up 0.6% to 1.1243 per US$ Italian 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 1.609% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bp to 1.382% Top Overnight News ECB’s Draghi: factors dampening inflation are on the whole temporary; the central bank can accompany the recovery by adjusting the parameters of its policy instruments, not in order to tighten the policy stance, but to keep it broadly unchanged U.S. GSEs: senators Corker and Warner working on a plan to break up Fannie and Freddie BOE: raises countercyclical capital buffer to 0.5% from 0.0%, plans further raise to 1.0% in November Canada: U.S. to impose additional tariffs on Canadian lumber imports China Premier Li: economy keeps steady growth with improvement in 2Q; continues stable positive trend in 2017 Brazil: President Temer charged with corruption by top prosecutor Hong Kong small-cap stock plunge wipes out $6.1 billion in value Dimon Says JPMorgan Headcount to Keep Rising Despite Automation Sprint Jumps on Report Deutsche Telekom Favors T-Mobile Merger; Sprint Said in Talks With Charter, Comcast on Wireless Deal Stada Plunges as $5.9 Billion Bid Fails to Lure Investors Li Says China to Meet Growth Goals, Vows Free Trade Support Draghi Defends ECB Stimulus Saying Jobs Matter Most for Equality Deutsche Telekom Won’t Sell BT Group Stake, CEO Hoettges Says Deutsche Bank Wasn’t Only ‘Mirror’ Trader: Russian Central Bank Germany Asks Opel to Update Zafira 1.6l Diesel Engine Software Volkswagen, Nvidia to Cooperate on Mobility Services Volvo Cars, Autoliv Add Nvidia as Partner on Self- Driving Autos Spanish Lender Bankia Agrees to Buy BMN in All- Stock Deal Chemicals M&A Still Hot Topic in Europe, U.S., Citi Says Hollywood Said to Be Auditing China’s Box-Office for First Time Jorge Mas Plans to Bid $1b-$1.1b for Miami Marlins: Fox Business Morgan Stanley Raises Alcoa Price Target, Cuts Cliffs Apple Acquires Eye-Tracking Company SensoMotoric For AR Tech Asia equities traded mostly in the green following a similar close on wall St., where financials outperformed as Fed comments backed the FOMC to continue hiking rates gradually, while the tech sector lagged after the US Supreme Court reinstated much of Trump's travel ban. ASX 200 (-0.2%) saw broad-based weakness with gold miners also suffering from yesterday's selling in the precious metal, while Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was buoyed by a weaker JPY. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (-0.1%) were indecisive with stronger Industrial Profit growth counterbalanced by the PBoC refraining from liquidity injections for a 3rd consecutive day. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with some mild upside seen despite the positive risk tone in Japan. Furthermore, the curve steepened with outperformance in the short-end following a 2yr bond auction which saw increased demand from prior as the b/c surged to 6.79 vs. Prey. 5.06. Chinese Premier Li stated that China is able to meet major economic targets this year and that China will ease market entry restrictions, as well as deepen reforms. Furthermore, Premier Li also stated that will maintain stable macro-policies and will not resort to massive stimulus. (Newswires) Top Asian News Hong Kong Small Cap Stock Plunge Wipes Out $6.1 Billion in Value Cotton Crop in Top Grower Seen at 3-Year High on Local Price China Stocks Reverse Drop in Afternoon as Consumer Shares Gain Russia Has Plan for North Korea to Give Up Nuclear Program: RIA China Said to Discuss VAT Exemption for Asset Management Firms Noble Group Slides as Fitch Sees Real Possibility of Default Exporters Lead Advance in Japanese Stocks as Yen Maintained Loss EU bourses saw some bearish pressure on the back of Draghi's comments, as all European majors trade in the red. Telecoms lag amid morning reports stating that Sprint said to be in exclusive talks with Charter, subsequently putting talks with T-Mobile US (TMUS) on hold (DTE GY holds a stake in TMUS). Fixed Income markets saw a subdued morning; however, a somewhat hawkish Draghi has weighed on European paper. The 10y Bund has been the main driver in the move, trading at session lows, down now over 20 ticks on the session. Bond trading is likely to focus on central bank speech today, with Yellen set to speak later in the session. Top European News Bankia, Banco Mare Nostrum Boards Sign Merger Agreement Nomura to Set Up German Unit in Preparation for Brexit Euro Jumps; Draghi Sees Temporary Factors Weighing on Inflation U.K. Grocers Back in Growth as Brits Pay More for Their Shopping Italian Business Confidence Unexpectedly Rises On Better Outlook European Miners Advance as Iron Ore Jumps Most in Four Months North Korea Sanctions Violations Trigger Fines at Latvian Banks Petrofac Not Getting Paid for Oil Sales From Greater Stella Area In currencies, it has been a lively morning for the EUR as the speech from president Draghi at the ECB forum on central banking was met positively. Traders took their cue from the comments highlighting the strengthening and broadening Euro area recovery and that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones. He also stated — again — that monetary accommodation is still required and that adjustment to policy will need to be gradual. Nevertheless, the market is still positioning for an eventual reining in of stimulus, and will continue to buy dips in EUR/USD and EUR/GBP, with EUR/JPY back at the session highs after a brief dip this morning. EUR/USD still faces as wall of selling interest into 1.1300, but for EUR/GBP, uncertain future in the UK makes for a comfortable buy in the near term, with the market having bid this cross rate well off the pre 0.8700 support highlighted in the past week or so. Still no major direction to discern in Cable, and we remain right in the middle of the broader 1.2400-1.3000 limits we see playing out until we get some fresh colour/news on Brexit. The rate policy ahead is being discounted to a larger degree despite the anticipated shift on the vote split. Pre 1.2800 still very well offered, but demand ahead of 1.2700 to note also. In commodities, gold has recovered some of the heavy drop suffered in early Monday trade, in what is believed to have been a stop chase or errant volumes entered. We are back above USD1250.00 this morning, but we see the USD based weakness tempered by the steady risk tone. Silver is also steady in the upper USD16's for now. Base metals show modest gains on the day, having seen decent gains over the last few days, and with reports of steel mill closures in China, iron ore has recovered a little more today. Copper is still holding circa USD2.64-5 this morning, so net little changed over the last 24 hours, with Zinc and Lead outperforming on the morning so far. Oil prices have also stabilised in the near term, but with little change to the overall backdrop of rising US production, traders will be wary of riding this latest move higher. WTI has held off USD44 so far. Looking at the day ahead, we will receive the June consumer confidence reading (expected to edge down to 116.0 from 117.9) along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index print for June and S&P/Case-Shiller house price index reading for April. Also of note today will be comments from Fed Chair Yellen at 6pm BST when she is due to speak in London on “Global Economic Issues”. Q&A is also expected to follow. The Fed’s Harker is also due to speak in London at 4pm while Williams speaks this morning at 9am BST and Kashkari also speaks at 10.30pm BST. US Event and Central Bank Calendar 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA, est. 0.5%, prior 0.87%; YoY NSA, est. 5.9%, prior 5.89% 10am: Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, est. 116, prior 117.9; Present Situation, prior 140.7; Expectations, prior 102.6 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 5, prior 1 11am: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economy in London 1pm: Fed’s Yellen Speaks on Global Economic Issues in London 5:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Townhall Event in Houghton, Michigan DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap While there wasn’t too much song and dance in markets yesterday, US politics was more of a talking point. Early in the day we learnt firstly that President Trump’s travel ban had been mostly cleared by the US Supreme Court which in turn allows it to take effect this week. Press reports were calling it a ‘partial victory’ for Trump insofar as the ban will take effect on people from the 6 nations concerned who lack a “bona fide relationship” in the US. After the close the focus then swiftly turned over to the healthcare debate with the findings from the CBO on the proposed bill. The headlines were largely dominated by the finding that an additional 22 million Americans would be left without insurance in a decade under the proposal, compared to 23 million in the House plan that passed in May. The CBO also found that the bill would lower the deficit by $321bn over the same period which compares to a $119bn reduction under the House bill. Significantly, following the CBO findings 3 Republican senators announced that they would block the bill from advancing. As a reminder, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can only afford a maximum of two dissenters. McConnell is still aiming for a vote on the measures before the July 4th recess so it’ll be worth keeping an eye on how things progress. Closer to home in the UK we finally learned that PM May’s Conservatives party had agreed to a pact with Northern Ireland’s DUP. The BBC reported that the pact included an extra £1bn in funding for Northern Ireland over the next 2 years. Staying with the UK, yesterday May’s government published the citizen’s rights plans in a 20 page report following talks last week. The EU’s Chief Negotiator Michal Barnier did however respond to the plan by saying that “more ambition, clarity and guarantees needed than in today’s UK position”. The EU’s Tusk also called it “below expectations” while Germany’s Merkel said it was a “good start” but “not a breakthrough”. So those talks will likely drag on. Over in markets yesterday, the Italy bank rescue over the weekend coupled with some decent data in Germany (more on that later) combined to help European equities start the week on the front foot. The Stoxx 600 firmed +0.37% while Italy’s FTSE MIB rallied +0.81% (with Italian Banks up +2.43%). BTPs also rallied 3bps at the 10y which compared to a much more mixed session for the rest of the periphery. US equities got off to an equally positive start however faded as the session drew to a close. The S&P 500 ended +0.03% with the VIX also closing below 10 (at 9.90) for the seventh time this year, while in bond land Treasuries were a basis point or two lower across the curve not helped by some soft durable and capital goods orders data (again more on that later). The Fed’s Dudley also spoke although largely focused his remarks about effective communication so far around balance sheet strategy and the lack of any market response. Coming back to Italy, in credit yesterday we saw a notable rally in Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca senior bonds after the weekend rescue package. After trading around 86c on Friday the news over the week helped Vicenza’s 2.75% 2020 senior bonds rally all the way back above par yesterday and in fact close just above 102c. Veneto’s 4% 2019 senior bonds also rallied 19pts yesterday to close at 104c. The latter traded as low as 74c just a couple of weeks ago. The move to protect senior bondholders was also reflected in a 2bp rally for the iTraxx Senior Fins index to 51.7bps while Sub Fins underperformed (+0.5bps to 129.5bps) with Vicenza and Vento sub debt largely getting wiped out. This news hopefully continues to help support our financials over non-financials trade. We still think the former offer value. As a reminder our other big trade at the moment is Euro IG over HY. As discussed yesterday we wonder whether the recent US energy sector sell-off will help this trade too by creating a little contagion into other HY sectors and currencies. Staying with credit. The latest weekly ECB CSPP holdings data was out yesterday. They are not being very predictable at the moment and it was another week of below par purchases averaging €300mn/day vs. the long-term average of €365mn/day. However although the CSPP/PSPP ratio was down to 12.1% (from the previous week's 12.7%), the average since April has been 13.2% which still compares favourably with 11.6% before then. After a strong May for CSPP, perhaps corresponding with high supply, June has seen below average purchases. So the more recent data suggests that the ECB are tapering corporate purchases but perhaps not as much as government equivalents. Refreshing our screens this morning, there’s not a huge amount of direction for bourses in Asia as we type. While the Nikkei (+0.30%), Hang Seng (+0.14%) and Kospi (+0.17%) are posting modest gains, bourses in China are flat and the ASX is -0.33%. Data in China this morning, without moving the dial, was supportive with industrial profits rising to +16.7% yoy in May (from +14.0% in April). Elsewhere Oil (+0.37%) has continued to build on the recent bounce-back from last week’s lows (currently at $43.53/bbl after touching $42.05/bbl on Wednesday). There is also some news to report out of Brazil with the announcement early this morning that President Michel Temer has been indicted for corruption. Jumping back to that macro data we mentioned earlier, yesterday in the US we learned that headline durable goods fell -1.1% mom in May and a bit more than expected (-0.6% expected). A big decline in aircraft orders played a part although the ex-transportation reading also disappointed after revealing that orders rose just +0.1% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). The closely watched core capex orders print was also soft (-0.2% mom vs. +0.4% expected). Away from that, the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index fell 2.2pts in June to +15.0 (vs. +16.0 expected) with the new orders index in particular declining a fairly steep 8.5pts. As alluded to earlier, there was however some better news in Germany. The headline IFO business climate reading for June climbed 0.5pts to 115.1 (vs. 114.5 expected) and in doing so hit a new post reunification high. Components for expectations and current assessment were also firmer. Our economists in Germany noted that the data points to a solid rise in Q2 GDP and have now lifted their forecast to +0.6% qoq from +0.4%. That has also had the effect of lifting their 2017 forecast to +1.6% yoy from +1.3%. In terms of the day ahead, this morning in Europe the only data of note due out is from the UK where the CBI’s distributive trades survey for June is released. Also of note is the BoE’s Financial Stability Report due at 10.30am BST with Governor Carney then scheduled to speak shortly after. In the US this afternoon we will receive the June consumer confidence reading (expected to edge down to 116.0 from 117.9) along with the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index print for June and S&P/Case-Shiller house price index reading for April. Also of note today will be comments from Fed Chair Yellen at 6pm BST when she is due to speak in London on “Global Economic Issues”. Q&A is also expected to follow. The Fed’s Harker is also due to speak in London at 4pm while Williams speaks this morning at 9am BST and Kashkari also speaks at 10.30pm BST. The ECB’s Draghi will make an introductory speech at the ECB forum in Sintra too.
Торги на Токийской фондовой бирже (ТФБ) завершились ростом ведущих показателей. Ключевой для Японии индекс Nikkei, отражающий курсы акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, к окончанию операций поднялся на 0,36%, до 20225,09 пункта. Более широкий TOPIX, фиксирующий курсы акций всех компаний в элитной первой секции биржи, вырос на 0,42%, до 1619,02...
Во вторник, 27 июня, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали слабоположительную динамику по итогам торговой сессии. Стоит отметить, что участники рынка ждут выступления главы ФРС Джанет Йеллен, которое состоится сегодня в Лондоне. Из макроэкономической статистики в Южной Кореи был опубликован индекс потребительских настроений, который в июне составил 111,1 пункта по сравнению с 108 пунктами в мае. В Новой Зеландии был обнародован профицит торгового баланса, который в мае составил 103 млн новозеландских долларов, тогда как аналитики прогнозировали профицит на уровне 420 млн новозеландских долларов. В то же время, в годовом выражении в мае дефицит торгового баланса достиг 3,75 млрд новозеландских долларов. Сводный индекс региона MSCI Asia Pacific закрылся на положительной территории. Японский Nikkei 225 увеличился на 0,26%, китайский
Японская экономика растет, но заработная плата остается довольно низкой... рост номинальной зарплаты в апреле составил всего 0,5%, - пишет японское издание Nikkei . Дело в том, что японское правительство и Банк Японии хотят видеть более высокую заработную плату, чтобы помочь подтолкнуть инфляцию к целевому уровню 2%. Пока что этого не происходит. В статье указываются три причины по которым зарплата в Японии может возрасти в этом году: Первое - это изменение в корпоративном мышлении. Компании серьезно относятся к повышению производительности. "Производительность должна улучшиться - говорят в компаниях. - Мы будет платить более высокую заработную плату, когда производительность начнет повышаться". Вторая причина заключается в том, что все большее число временных сотрудников переходят на постоянные контракты. Многие постоянные, квалифицированные работники уходят на пенсию, что приведет к недостатку рабочих мест для долгосрочных работников с более высокой оплатой труда. В апреле соотношение рабочих мест к соискателям достигло 43-летнего максимума в 1,48, а уровень безработицы снизился до 22-летнего минимума, примерно до 2,8%. Многие работники достигли пенсионного возраста и как только они уйдут, нехватка рабочей силы в Японии станет еще более острой. Информационно-аналитический отдел ТелеТрейдИсточник: FxTeam
Российский рынок стартовал в минусе при нейтральном внешнем фоне. В первые минуты ММВБ опустился на 0,38% и составлял 1853, 31 пункта, РТС прибавил 0,15% (994,37 пункта). В числе аутсайдеров на открытии находились бумаги "Системы", падающие на 12,27% на фоне судебных разбирательств. Доля АФК "Система" в МТС вчера была арестована по иску "Роснефти". А сегодня Арбитражный суд Республики Башкортостан рассмотрит по существу иск "Роснефти" к АФК, касающийся убытков "Башнефти" при реорганизации в 2014 году. МТС падают на 3,5%. Снижались также "Энел Россия" (-3,8%), "Распадская" (-1,3%), "РУСАЛ" (-1,1%), "Мечел" (-0,9%). В лидерах роста были: ОГК-2 (+0,7%), "Россети" (+1,2%), ПИК (+0,4%), ТМК (+0,5%), Уралкалий" (+0,4%). Фондовый рынок США завершил вчерашний день незначительным изменением. В Азии настроения разнонаправленные. Nikkei 225 вырос до почти мак
Toshiba на грани делистинга с Токийской фондовой биржи, Western Digital не соглашается на продажу полупроводникового бизнеса Toshiba группе компаний, в который входят южнокорейский производитель памяти SK Hynix
Доброе утро! Информационная группа Finam.Ru и Инвестиционная компания "ФИНАМ" рады приветствовать Ва
По итогам торгов в понедельник в США индекс Dow Jones вырос на 0,07%, S&P поднялся на 0,03%, Nasdaq потерял 0,29%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 21 409,55 пункта, S&P – 2 439,07 пункта, Nasdaq – 6247,15 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND увеличился на 1,8% составил 62 188,09 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 вырос на 0,3% и закрылся на уровне 7 446,8 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 подрос на 0,5% и закрылся на уровне 5 295,75 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX окреп на 0,3% и к закрытию составил 12 770,83 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei поднялось к настоящему времени на 0,36% и составило 20 226,03 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 опустился на 0,4% и находится на уровне 3 653,454 пункта.
Большинство фондовых площадок Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона (АТР) во вторник утром торгуется с положительной динамикой, в то время как японский Nikkei 225 вырос до почти максимального значения за два года из-за удешевления иены к доллару, вызванного ожиданиями выступления председателя Федрезерва США Джанет Йеллен, свидетельствуют данные торгов.
By Chris at www.CapitalistExploits.at I warn you... I'll get hate mail for this. I am a bad person. Perhaps, I spent too much time in European cities because Athens and Greece in particular always failed to impress me. Ok, they have a lot of crumbly buildings. But so do every other country in the region. Ephesus is more impressive than the Panthenon. The Colosseum more impressive than the Valley of the Temples. And then there's the food. It's terrible. Leaves or cheese, sometimes both, double soaked in oil pretty much sums it up. If you're not into crumbling buildings, they offer the islands, which are quite nice, laid back, and fun with those little hilltop villages you see in the postcards, riddled with cobbled streets and fat ladies with missing teeth, smiling at you. Unfortunately, all this novelty wears thin after about 48 hours and so after some water sports, which you can only do for so long, you're left exhausted by sex - because let's face it, you've run out of anything else worth doing. It's easily the best thing about Greece and I highly recommend it for that reason. It's cheap, sunny, warm, dysfunctional, and boring... which makes it the perfect place to go for a dirty weekend away. I realise my tastes are unique, and plenty of people love Greece for all the reasons I don't. In particular, the Chinese... which is really what this article is about. Unless you've been living under a rock, you'll have heard of China's ambitious One Belt, One Road initiative. It is essentially the restoring of the historic Silk Road established by Genghis Kahn with his arrival in Europe and Alexander the Great who almost reached the Chinese province of Xinjiang. There is a long history here with the Hellenic world and Eastern Europe having carved mathematics and Indo-European languages along the old Silk Road, and the Greek-Buddhist syncretism which influenced the development of both art and philosophy in China and India. While Brussels farts around with Brexit and Draghi puzzles a catchy name for the next batshit crazy money printing initiative, China has been steadily and quietly using their massive FX reserves ($3 trillion) to lay the groundwork for future trade and their subsequent geopolitical power that will accompany it. Take a look at where the money is flowing and why. When it comes to maritime links, first stop once out of the Suez is Greece. It is for all purposes perfectly located as a gateway to the rest of Europe. The Chinese, being fiendishly smart, realise this. It's why they're going to rule the world within a couple decades. Ports China's COSCO Shipping, owner of the world's fourth largest container fleet, took a 67% percent stake in Greece's largest port last year. As reported by the Nikkei Asian Review: "The port's container-handling volume surged more than fivefold in seven years, totaling 3.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units, or TEUs, in 2016. When the terminal was still state-run, the Port of Piraeus did not even crack the global top 100 in terms of container volume. Today, it ranks among the world's 50 biggest container ports. According to Greek media reports, the port authority's management team will soon announce new investment plans. The pillars are expected to be a new cruise ship terminal -- aimed primarily at wealthy Chinese tourists -- and a vessel repair center. One Cosco source said investment over the next five years will "exceed 600 million euros." Energy In December, State Grid Corp., a Chinese power transmission company, agreed to acquire a 24% stake in a subsidiary of Greek state utility Public Power Corp. And this from Reuters: "Greek infrastructure development group Copelouzos has signed a deal with China's Shenhua Group to cooperate in green energy projects and the upgrade of power plants in Greece and other countries, the Greek company said on Friday. The deal will involve total investment of 3 billion euros ($3.28 billion), Copelouzos said in a statement, without providing further details." Military And last year, a deal was struck whereby (through the Fujian Shipbuilding company) China accesses European technology - in particular, financing naval armament agreements valued at more than $3 billion, which, by the way, represents 7 percent of Greek GDP. Not small. Greece likes it since it provides another 190,000 new jobs. Air As reported by Bloomberg: "Fosun International Ltd., the Chinese conglomerate that’s part of a venture to transform the former Athens airport site into one of the biggest real-estate projects in Europe, is now turning its attention to Greek tourism." And Reuters elaborates: "China - which has already submitted a bid to buy a majority stake in Piraeus - is also eyeing the construction of an 800 million-euro airport in Crete and the main airport in Athens when the government puts it on sale later this year, Greek officials said. Development Minister Nikos Dendias said the two sides also discussed a high-speed rail project. China attaches great importance to Greece's unique geographic advantage of being a gateway to Europe and, in that light, is prepared to intensify its cooperation with Greece in basic infrastructure such as ports, roads, (and) railways." Now here's what's interesting... I speak to a lot of money managers every week, and I can count on my hand just two who, like us, are acquiring Greek assets. This is one extremely uncrowded trade. It's oh so lonely, which brings an additional level of comfort. Don't believe me? I present to you the Greek Stock market: Here's small caps: Chinese travel to Greece has been surging since around 2013 but this entire party looks like it's only just getting started. You tell me what's going to happen when 1.5 million Chinese tourists start showing up in Athens every year looking for crumbling buildings and fat, toothless, charming ladies selling oil soaked cheese and leaves? - Chris "In a world of growing interdependency and challenges, no country can tackle the challenges, also the world's problems, on its own." — Xi Jinping -------------------------------------- Liked this article? Don't miss our future missives and podcasts, and get access to free subscriber-only content here. --------------------------------------
The following article by David Haggith was first published on The Great Recession Blog: Central banks buying stocks are effectively nationalizing US corporations just to maintain the illusion that their “recovery” plan is working because they have become the banks that are too big to fail. At first, their novel entry into the stock market was only intended to rescue imperiled corporations, such as General Motors during the first plunge into the Great Recession, but recently their efforts have shifted to propping up the entire stock market via major purchases of the most healthy companies on the market. Brian Rich, writing for Forbes, describes the economic illusion created by central banks buying stocks during a time of presidential prosecution: The chaos and dysfunction message is loud, but markets aren’t hearing it. The real story is very different. Stocks continue to surge; stock market volatility continues to sit at ten–year (pre–crisis) lows. The interest rate market is much higher than it was before the election, but now quiet and stable. Gold, the fear–of–the–unknown trade, is relatively quiet. This all looks very much like a world that believes a real economic expansion is underway, and that a long–term sustainable global economic recovery has supplanted the shaky post-crisis (central bank–driven) recovery that was teetering back toward recession. In other words, political chaos in the regime is not denting the stock market, because central banks buying stocks are eliminating volatility. Indeed, if you were to gauge the economy at this point by the US stock market, everything must be grand because the Trump Rally has been one of our most exuberant stock rallies. According to Rich, all of that is a central-bank-created slight of hand intended to distract you from what is happening in politics and throughout the macro economy: Remember, the financial media and Wall Street are easily distractible. Not only do they have short attention spans, but they’ve been trained throughout their careers to find new stories to obsess about…. We have major central banks around the world that continue to print money. These central banks buy assets with that freshly printed money. That means, stocks, bonds and commodities go higher. Distract you from what? Distract you via the roaring success of stocks from the fact that the central banks’ recovery is failing everywhere. As Rich says, the fate of the world now rests on the successful outcome of these new policies because the banks that are now too big to fail are the central banks, themselves. The Fed and its central proxies are creating a grand distraction from a story that would chill America to the bone … if the truth were told. Proofs of central banks buying stocks to rig the market The Federal Reserve already confessed it rigged the stock market last January in hopes of creating a “wealth effect” throughout the US economy. Its plan, confessed by ex-Fed governor Richard Fisher was to front-run the stock market with its forward messaging about bond purchases though which it created massive liquidity that would be invested in stocks. It worked like this: By promising overnight profits on bonds to its member banks, the Fed knew they would soak up tons of bonds. From there, the Fed hoped the member banks would take the money they made off of buying US bonds and selling them immediately to the Fed for a profit and invest that money in stocks, which they did. (Whether the Fed was just hoping or was secretly directing its member banks to do so could be speculated about endlessly; but they expressed it as “hoping to create a wealth effect.”) Until now I have been speculating about central banks buying stocks, claiming that was all that was supporting the stock market; but I was also just speculating for years that the Federal Reserve was intentionally front-running the stock market throughout its “recovery.” Now those interventions in the stock market, which fueled the Fed’s recovery throughout the market’s long climb, are a well-known fact, admitted to by the Federal Reserve. My speculation that the long bull market was driven almost entirely by banks was much doubted years ago when I and other writers gathered at Zero Hedge, were claiming that was exactly what the Fed was doing. I couldn’t prove it back then, but everything clearly pointed in that direction, even as many experts denied it. Last year, I upped my claims to saying that I believed the only thing that terminated the stock crash in January was a move toward even more direct Fed rigging of stock prices via having proxies buy oil (one significant cause of the January crash) and stocks directly. All year long, I speculated that the Fed was merely holding the illusion of recovery together by directly buying select commodities and stocks to drive the markets back up because it was an election year in which they would “pull out all the stops,” In this case that expression doesn’t mean organ stops, but all the market stops, but particularly the biggest stop of all that said central banks should not buy stocks because their capacity to rig the markets is infinite, and they have no investment risk. They can buy and hold forever, and they can create new money to replace any they lose. As if to confirm my suspicions, the Fed began talking early last year about the possibilityof buying stocks directly. However, they implied that would only happen, if at all, in some distant future should the economy crash again. I stated that this thing they would like to be able to do overtly and with everyone’s blessing was something they were already doing covertly. They were merely running the flag up the pole to see if they could move from working through proxies to being able to work openly — testing the nation’s response by putting the idea out there. Recently Bank of America, the Wall Street Journal and others have begun to state that central banks are buying stocks in huge quantities. The only questions remaining is whether they are doing so at the Fed’s bidding and whether they are doing it primarily to prop up an otherwise failing stock market. By definition, cornering enough of the market to push it where they want it to go is called “rigging.” What is the scale of central banks buying stocks? The Forbes article from May continues, Among the reports on portfolio holdings yesterday, we heard from the Swiss National Bank…. Switzerland’s central bank has more freshly printed money to put to work every quarter, and has been increasing their allocation to equities dramatically–$80 billion of which is now (as of the end of the first quarter) in U.S. stocks! That’s a 29% bigger stake than they had at the end of 2016. The SNB is the world’s eighth biggest public investor. In one quarter, they upped their stake in US stocks by almost a third, and they are only the eighth-largest public investor! What are the other big guys doing? Back in April, Bank of America noted that central banks had purchased $1 trillion in assets this year alone. Now, that includes bonds more than it does stocks; but globally it tells us that quantitative easing continues at a massive scale, even as the Fed is unwinding its stimulus (or says it is). Now, you have to know that a lot of that trillion dollars in less than a year is flowing across the ocean to the United States because the US remains the best looking horse in the glue factory. In fact, Marketwatch summed up BofA’s analysis of the situation by saying, “that might be all you need to knowabout stock and bond market performance in 2017.” Indeed, that one fact by itself may sum up everything there is to say about why stocks are still rising and why the Trump Rally was as steep as it was and why it is trying for a third time to push a hole through the ceiling. Market watch notes that central banks have gobbled up a “record amount of financial assets” this year. At the time the research was conducted, this would translate into well over $3 trillion annualized, making this the strongest period of central-bank stimulus since 2007! No small claim, since that earlier period was the most extraordinary stimulus burst history had ever seen. Ask yourself an honest question if you believe in the Fed’s continual recovery narrative: “Is this what recovery looks like — continued record amounts of stimulus forever?” Yet, the story only gets richer. (Well, for some.) The newly created money invested by the Swiss National Bank didn’t attempt to buy important but dying companies. It went predominantly to Facebook, Alphabet (Google) and Apple. Is it any wonder, then, that these stocks, known as the FAANG stocks, are the ones that drove the NASDAQ to new heights? The Swiss National Bank has gone from having about 9% of its holdings in stocks back in 2007 to currently having 22% of its much larger balance sheet in stocks. Last year, when I speculated about all of this, the SNB had already increased its stock holdings by 41% in a year’s time! By the third quarter of 2016, when I was just speculating the central banks were the major driver, the SNB owned $1.7 billion of Apple, $1.2 billion of Microsoft and $1.08 billion of Exxon. (Remember my speculations on the oil connection?) Reuters reported last year that … Switzerland’s central bank now owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg, part of a mushrooming stock portfolio that is likely to grow yet further. The tech giant’s founder and CEO has other ways to control his company: Zuckerberg holds most of his stake in a different class of stock. Nevertheless this example illustrates how the Swiss National Bank has become a multi-billion-dollar equity investor due to its campaign to hold down the Swiss franc. In 2017, it stepped up its purchases! Is this situation of central banks buying stocks insignificant to US stock prices? Not according to Bank of America: BofA’s analysts called this “supernova of liquidity” the “only one flow that matters”and the “best explanation” for the double-digit gains in stocks that was happing in the first half of the year. They called it the “the $1 trillion flow that conquers all.” So, now we have moved from my speculating all of last year that central banks buying stocks were the sole factor that was pushing up stocks to Bank of America now proclaiming outright that it is the sole factor that matters in the rise of US stocks — a factor so huge that it dwarfs all other drivers. More evidence of central banks buying stocks in the US Is the Fed in bed with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange? I owe the following research to Chris Martenson on his Peak Prosperity website in an article titled “Where There’s Smoke … There’s central bank manipulation” and to Zero Hedge. I’ll summarize Martenson’s findings here, and you can check out the article if you want more detail: After Hurricane Sandy, the New York Fed moved part of its markets group to Chicago where the CME is located. The Fed reported that the move was being done as a safety precaution so that all US central-banking operations would not be on a hurricane-prone coast. The move received very little coverage. (Only MSM organization reporting it was Reuters.) Besides selling commodities and derivatives that central banks might naturally want to trade in (such as gold by which they manipulate the price of gold in order to secure their proprietary product — money), the CME sells futures on US stocks. The algorithms used by the bots that now do 80% of the driving in the US stock market peer into futures like a fortune teller looking into her crystal ball. So, the CME offers a lot of leverage for moving stock prices by steering the bots. The largest investors the CME markets its operations to are central banks. The CME has a program specifically designed to entice central banks and to facilitate their purchases through discounted fees. That program doesn’t even try to hide its purpose as it is called the “Central Bank Incentive Program.” Incentive programs are reserved for the CMEs highest volume traders. This past January, the CME wrote the following marketing summary of its Central Bank Incentive Program: The Central Bank Incentive Program (“CBIP”) allows Qualified Participants [notice the caps, indicating the term has a legal definition] to receive discounted fees for their proprietary trading of CME Group Products. (CME Group) They legally define “Qualified Participants” as A non-US central bank, multilateral development bank, multilateral financial institution … or an international organization of central banks. [Said institutions must] execute all trades in the Qualified Participants name. After all, you wouldn’t want a proxy using the name of the ultimate money source if that were the Fed or if it were acting on behalf of the Fed. You wouldn’t want the Fed’s name in any way associated with the trade. Did the Fed move its markets group to the same place as the CME in order to develop proxy trading relationships with all of the central banks in the world that use the CME for trading in oil and stock futures? Strangely, not a single central bank on earth shows any CME products on its balance sheet; but surely the CME does not have this dedicated program for the sake of serving no one. Since CME incentive programs are reserved for the CME’s highest-volume traders (basically offering a bulk discount), central banks must be purchasing CME products and not disclosing so on their balance sheets. Why the apparent secrecy on the part of central banks as to their participation? Not long after the Fed’s move to CME Land, Zero Hedge reported finding this little tidbit in one of the job descriptions at the Fed’s new market trading office: “Perform account services to foreign central banks, international agencies, and U.S. government agencies.” Hmm. The CME group requires that central banks open accounts in their own name but that those accounts must be managed by a … CME Group clearing firm or FCM (Futures Commission Merchant) for their proprietary trades and/or trades done on their behalf by an asset manager. I wonder if people working in the Federal Reserves “markets group” engaged in “account services to foreign central banks” could serve as asset managers for a central bank with an account at the CME.” Just wondering. In which case, might they not help manage those central banks’ purchases in a manner that serves the aims of the Federal Reserve? Just a thought. Maybe the Fed is just nearby to counsel them or urge them or provide incentives to make certain stock trades at certain times. Maybe the Fed’s move to the place where central banks of the world trade at a time when central banks buying stocks in the US has become a new phenomenon is all one big coincidence. Regardless, central banks are clearly engaged in massive US stock trades. You don’t get those bulk fee discounts any other way. According to the Reuters article above, The satellite office in the Midwest readies the New York Fed for perhaps the most delicate U.S. interest-rate hike ever. With rates having been near zero for more than six years, and markets flooded with reserves, the Fed will rely on an array of new tools to help it tighten policy, likely later this year. MAYBE the move had less to do with fear created by Hurricane Sandy than it had to do with establishing the new tools that would help the New York Fed achieve intervention readiness for managing its first interest-rate increase without crashing stocks. I suppose one way to safely avoid a market crash when making your much-feared first interest-rate increase would be to get other central banks to jump in with rescue stock purchases if the stock market dared to respond negatively. Remember how the market leaped upward for a few days after the first increase? Was that the central banks jumping in before their new machine was fully calibrated or maybe giving a more-than-necessary boost just to err’ on the safe side? We may never know, but we now certainly do know that central banks trade US stocks and a lot of it. We also know the CME’s “incentive” program for facilitating central bank stock futures trades (and other kinds of trade) was created in July of 2013, so it, too, is a recent innovation. Interestingly, the program lists one of its core principles as “Prevention of Market Disruption.” (“Plunge Protection Team,” anyone?) Another sliver of proof comes from the Bank of Finland, which states that it started buying stocks in 2014, still a recent innovation and that it plans to ramp that up: “When yields started to get really low and closer to zero in 2014, we decided to start equity investments,” said Jarno Ilves, head of investments at the Bank of Finland, who said he plans to increase his allocation to stocks. (Zero Hedge) Oh, a couple of other parts of that job description: Interfaces with market participants to obtain context for asset price movements…. Relates developments in financial markets to issues pertaining to financial stability.… Plans and executes transactions in foreign exchange or fixed income markets on behalf of the U.S. monetary authorities, foreign central banks, and other customers. Would those “market participants” be the central banks that are the “Qualified Participants” in the CME’s incentive program, and would the “asset price movements” be intentionally targeted asset price movements, and not just observations of natural market movements? Just asking. Follow the money to see where central-bank rigging of sticks all ends up The precarious part of this equation is what it shows of the Law of Diminishing returns that I keep harping about as an economic fundamental that cannot be averted even by central banks. The further we have gone into the “recovery,” the greater the amount of global stimulus that has been needed to keep the recovery afloat and the more direct and broad the intervention has had to become. There is no global reduction of stimulus so far. The only thing that has shifted is where the stimulus is coming from. I have always stated that the recovery program is completely unsustainable and that all signs of life end as soon as the artificial life support is removed. The patient has been dead since 2008. We have gone from the Fed and/or US Treasury buying stocks to save a few key companies (an innovation at the time that was worrisome to many) to numerous central banks buying up large swaths of the market. The stock intervention has become greater, not smaller, because of the Law of Diminishing returns. You have to ask yourself, as I did about Carmageddon, “What is the end game here?” What happens when central banks need to unwind from these positions and, so, start to flood the market with these stocks. I think the answer is they can no more do that than they can bring their recovery to a successful conclusion (hence the continued massive stimulus a decade after it all began, even as they talk of unwinding). It is absurd that anyone thinks the Fed is unwinding successfully when everyone else has been maintaining or increasing stimulus and when much of that flows to the US. To see where this all goes, we have only to look at Japan where, again, the Law of Diminishing Returns erodes endlessly at their goals. Japan entered the game of rigging its stock market back in the 1990s, and it is still as desperately stuck in this liquidity trap as ever. There is no end game. A recent poll of currency reserve managers at reserve banks showed that 80% of the 18 central banks polled plan to increase their investment in stocks. That was almost double the number of those interested in buying corporate bonds. These people are flying by the seats of their pants to go where no man (or one Yellen) has ever gone before. They are trying to figure their way out as they go, just like Japan, which finds itself endlessly pitched back into new and greater rounds of QE every time it tries to taper. As a result, the Bank of Japan has now become one of the top-five owners in eighty-one companies on the Japan Nikkei 225 index and is close to being the number-one owner in fifty of those companies. (Effectively nationalizing those stocks.) The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been purchasing assets including exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and thus, indirectly, company stocks…. From a policy perspective, efforts to weaken Japan’s currency by lowering interest rates to negative levels has not worked and has attracted criticism, particularly from financial institutions. It seems that now the emphasis will be on weakening the yen as well as propping up stock prices. In the parlance of the gambling community, the BOJ has become the biggest “whale” in the market, holding a large share of stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Market. Therefore, many investors have become increasingly focused not on company fundamentals but on the BOJ’s daily purchases…. It’s estimated that the BOJ now owns about 60% of Japan’s domestic ETFs and it’s expected the BOJ could continue purchasing more ETFs through 2017…. Market bulls are happy with the BOJ purchases, but opponents say the central bank is artificially inflating valuations and ironically discouraging companies from becoming more efficient. Interestingly, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average is actually down more than 8% year-to-date [diminishing returns, anyone?], although one might argue its fate could have been worse without central-bank buying…. Of course, the BOJ’s program is not unique. The Bank of England has a corporate debt purchase program worth about US$13 billion, and the European Central Bank has a similar program. (Franklin Templeton Investments) The Bank of Japan is already buying ETFs at an annual pace of 300 billion yen ($2.4 billion), in addition to its existing annual purchase program worth about 3 trillion yen. The Swiss, Israeli and Hong Kong central banks have also been or are small-scale investors in stock markets, but more aggressive buying may now be called for…. This could mean ramping up purchases of Japanese stocks to 10 percent of the outstanding total, or about 50 trillion yen, from around 0.5 percent currently. Such a move would contribute to “pushing up equity prices…. “If the BOJ expands its ETF purchasing plan in June or July, then that could be the trigger for the ECB to look more closely at this,” said JP Morgan’s Panigirtzoglou. Purchasing stocks would also go some way to supporting bank valuations, which have been hammered in recent months by the low and negative yields and a dismal first quarter trading environment. (Reuters) The hope of central banks is to create a self-sustaining illusion, wherein people will see a market that appears healthy and growing and then jump in and take off where the central bank leaves off. As we can see from Japan, the results are not that positive, and the illusion certainly has never become self-sustaining. It is more of delusion. No central bank has navigated its way out of this so far. China, for having done the same thing, is probably worse off than Japan, truth be known beyond the always-deceptive cover of its double bookkeeping system. You see, at the end of the day, this is not just stock manipulation; it is CYA time. The Fed’s recovery is a failure because it was never sustainable from its onset. It was a bankrupt idea. For the recovery to be called a success, GDP would have to have improved, and it has done nothing but doggedly follow a downward path for years. CLEARLY NOT A RECOVERY! GDP growth well that is now under 2% can hardly be called “recovery.” The end game was supposed to be that a thriving economy would be able to absorb the Fed’s very gradual unwinding, but that vital economy never emerged. The central banks have painted themselves into a corner. By their own designs, they get no interest off all the bonds they hold. They cannot sell them without substantially raising the interest on the national debts of the nations they are obligated by charter to serve. (The ECB now owns 40% of Europe’s national debts.) So, they buy stocks to maintain the illusion of recovery and to have someplace to put the money they keep on their balance sheets. Then they cannot sell those without crashing their own stock markets. So, the game continues to spiral upward in terms of the aggregate of CB investments … as seen in Japan and in China and now the US. Some call it the liquidity trap. History of central banks buying stocks Twenty years ago central banks didn’t even think of buying stocks. It may have happened in odd instances, but it was an anomaly if it did as a way to save a specific bank or credit union. During our first plunge into the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury bought up large amounts of stock in order to save companies that were either vital to US employment or to financial markets that were dying from their own mistakes. Those were efforts to save specific key corporations. In subsequent years, the Bank of Japan and the Peoples Bank of China soaked up stocks in massive amounts more or less across the board, not to save specific vital companies but to save their stock markets. The Chinese seized total central control of their market, even mandating that certain speculators stay out of the market, mandating that various proxies buy large volumes of stocks and locking the stocks that were falling worst out of trading. As a result, they created a perfectly healthy and real stock market, right? No, they created a centrally controlled illusion that is not a free market at all; it is merely a fatalistically predetermined game in which the government has decided “the market,” a term that now requires air quotes, will do well. To achieve that end, the government or its central bank does whatever it needs to in order to keep stocks up. We all know China’s market became completely rigged. We are just now seeing in the mainstream media that the US stock market is also increasingly rigged by central banks buying stocks. What about the official reason banks give for central banks buying stocks? The main reason presented for central banks buying stocks is that all of their economic stimulus has resulted in hugely bloated balance sheets, and they need to invest that money somewhere. To which, I ask, “Why? When did making a profit become an operating objective of central banks, which like to claim they are not about profit making?” Since central banks are the first to claim they are not about making profits, that is a completely illegitimate reason for buying stocks; but that’s the CYA reason banksters give: According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, nearly $11 trillion in global assets yielded negative interest last year. Thus, central banks are forced to reach for yield in riskier assets like everyone else. Really? That was all their doing. Central banks created that situation intentionally, and the Federal Reserve has been saying it wants to unwind its balance sheet. If so, why does it want to make bigger profits on the money it supposedly wants to unwind? It’s a completely self-contradictory argument. Yet, the experts are readily buying into it. If you buy their argument, then you have to admit that central-bank policies are hurting the central banks just like they are hurting retirees and everyone else who needs yield in order to survive But why does the bank, which has the power to print money at will, care about earning it the hard way? No, I think it is really entirely about propping up their own stock markets. We know that is why Japan and China have been doing it. Why would the US be any different, even if the Fed hides behind proxies? In the National Bank of Switzerland’s case, a different reason altogether is presented, which has some truth to it: The Swiss franc is hugely popular when times are bad. When everyone wants to buy francs, the value of the franc is driven up relative to other currencies, which makes it hard for Swiss companies to compete for international trade. To offset this, the Swiss National Bank tries to buy up other currencies. They have to put the foreign money somewhere, so they are investing it in top US companies. In proportion to the size of its national economy, the Swiss National Bank’s balance sheet is the most bloated of any major central bank … and still growing with no end in sight. A convenient alignment of Fed interests with francish interests. The problems with central banks investing in stocks With central banks having the capacity to create money by decree anytime they want to, investment risk means little to nothing. Lose your money, it ceases to exist. In that case, just crete more of it. With their ability to create unlimited amounts at zero cost (just add some ones and zeros to an account somewhere), their capacity to move markets they choose to invest in is almost unlimited. Essentially, the only limit on how much they can do is inflation, which throughout the Great Recession has never posed as a limiting factor. As Zero Hedge wrote at the beginning of this year, For those few who are still unfamiliar, this is how central banks who create fiat money out of thin air and for whom “acquisition cost” is a meaningless term, are increasingly nationalizing the equity capital markets. As the WSJ puts it “these central banks care relatively little about whether such investments make profits or losses—though they can matter politically—because they can always print more of their currency. So risk is less important, analysts say.” And since risk was no longer part of the equation, leaving only return, central banks started buying stocks…. So between central banks outbidding each other to buy “risky” assets with “money” that is constantly created at no cost, very soon all other private investors will be crowded out but not before every stock is trading at valuations that even CNBC guests won’t be able to justify…. The bad news, is that as more people realize that a free “market” now only exists in textbooks, and that Soviet-style central planning is the only game in town, confident in price formation will evaporate, in turn pushing even more market participants out of the quote-unquote market, until only central banks are left bidding on each other’s otherwise worthless stock certificates. At the same time, efforts to invest reserve funds more broadly mean that more markets will be subject to what some critics describe as central-bank distortion, as large and often price-insensitive buyers run the risk of driving up prices and reducing prospective returns for other market participants. For virtually all central banks, however, the grotesque central planning shift of the past decade means that instead of engaging in monetary policy, the world’s central banks are now activist hedge funds, who are focused first and foremost on “investment management.” … and at the current rate of expansion, within a few years the world’s monetary authorities who are tasked with “financial stability”, will have acquired a majority of the world’s equity tranche, effectively nationalizing it. Even the Wall Street Journal denies the argument that central banks have to care at all about making a profit. As Russia became more of a free-market economy, the United States has started to look more like the centrally-planned economy of the former Soviet Union. Markets have been centrally manipulated beyond the repair. As always, the central planners have the arrogance of the elite that causes them to think they have the brilliance to guide and control the markets of entire nations and even the entire world. How can anyone believe that such hubris will not end in total financial collapse?
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,441.25 (+0.26%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.47% до уровня 5,839.75. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют позитивную динамику. Nikkei 20,153.35 +20.68 +0.10% Hang Seng 25,871.89 +201.84 +0.79% Shanghai 3,186.05 +28.17 +0.89% S&P/ASX 5,720.16 +4.29 +0.08% FTSE 7,471.97 +47.84 +0.64% CAC 5,318.50 +52.38 +0.99% DAX 12,818.73 +85.32 +0.67% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $43.12 за баррель (+0.26%) Золото торгуется по $1,239.70 за унцию (-1.33%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете умеренно повышаются на фоне роста нефтяных котировок и слабых данных по заказам на товары длительного пользования за май. Как показал отчет Министерства торговли, новые заказы на основные капитальные товары произведенные в США неожиданно упали в мае, тогда как поставки также снизились, что говорит о потере импульса в обрабатывающем секторе на полпути во втором квартале. Согласно данным отчета, заказы на необоронные капитальные товары, за исключением самолетов, внимательно отслеживаемого датчика для планов деловых расходов, снизились на 0.2%. Эти так называемые основные заказы на капитальные товары были пересмотрены, и показали увеличение на 0.2% за апрель. Ранее сообщалось, что они выросли на 0.1%. В то же время, поставки капитальных товаров, используемые для расчета расходов на оборудование в государственном измерении ВВП, снизились на 0.2% в прошлом месяце после роста на 0.1% в апреле. Экономисты прогнозировали, что основные заказы на капитальные товары в мае вырастут на 0.3%. Общие заказы на товары длительного пользования, товары от тостеров до самолетов, которые рассчитаны на срок службы три года или дольше, упали на 1.1% после снижения на 0.9% в апреле. Цены на нефть отскочили от семимесячных минимумов на прошлой неделе. Однако их дальнейший рост продолжают сдерживать данные, свидетельствующие о неуклонном ростом поставок в США и существенных глобальных запасах. Недавнее падение нефтяных котировок также вызвало обеспокоенность по поводу низкой инфляции в США, которая упорно остается ниже целевого показателя ФРС в 2%. Напомним, ФРС повысил ставки в этом месяце во второй раз в этом году и, как ожидается, снова поднимет их. Фьючерсы оценивают шансы повышение ставок к декабрю близко 50%. Глава ФРС Джанет Йеллен выступит в Лондоне во вторник, и инвесторы будут искать в ее словах подсказки относительно перспектив дальнейшего ужесточения политики центробанка, после того, как в последние дни другие представители ФРС высказали неоднозначные мнения. В понедельник президент ФРБ Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс заявил, что регулятору необходимо постепенно повышать ставки, или экономика рискует перегреться. Глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли отметил, что недавнее сужение кредитных спрэдов, рекордные цены акций и падение доходности облигаций могут побудить ФРС продолжать ужесточать политику США. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было.Источник: FxTeam
Очень вероятно, что ближайшее время мы увидим сильное движение по паре usd/jpy. Откуда я это придумал? Мне приснилось сегодня. Прочитал сегодня статью http://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Capital-Markets/Japan-s-government-bond-market-grinding-to-a-halt?n_cid=NARAN012, что творится на облигационном рынке Японии. Скорее всего почти все смартлабовцы в курсе, что там происходит? -))) Кто не в курсе, в 2 -х словах, там полнейший застой. Последние дни там просто не было колебаний по 10 -летним гособлигациям. Рынок в замороженном состоянии. Пружину сжали до предела! Минимальные колебания с 1994 года. В какой-то момент там начнется сильное движение. И это естественно отразится на паре usd/jpy.А куда же рванет пара usd/jpy? Напишу как среднестатистический аналитик — то ли вверх, то вниз. Просмотрел разные таймфреймы, сопоставил с другими парами, с фондовым рынком Японии и пока не смог определиться до конца. Что планирую делать с этой парой? Подожду, пока определится направление этого мощного движения и буду запрыгивать в поезд.
S&P futures point to a higher open following gains in Asian markets supported by stronger commodities but mostly European bourses, which are sharply higher following the €17 billion bailout of the two Veneto banks in Italy, the biggest taxpayer funded bank rescue in modern Italian history, as well as Dan Loeb's activist campaign of the world's biggest food company, Nestle which sent the stock up 5%, and finally Germany's Ifo business climate index which hit new all time highs. Risk sentiment is broadly higher thanks to European equity markets which have rallied strongly from the open led by the Italian banking sector following the Veneto banks resolution. As shown in the chart below, EutoStoxx banks are about 2% higher as markets celebrate the return of taxpayer bailouts and the apparent death of Europe's bail-in regime. The bailout capped a weekend in which Italy's center-right parties were the big winners in mayoral elections on Sunday, in a vote likely to put pressure on the center-left government ahead of national elections due in less than a year. In the most closely watched contest, the northern port city of Genoa - a traditional left-wing stronghold - seemed certain to pass to the center-right for the first time in more than 50 years. The candidate backed by the anti-immigrant Northern League and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia party will get around 54 percent of the vote, compared with 46 percent for the candidate backed by the ruling Democratic Party (PD), according to final projections based on the vote count. However Italian BTPs rallied with domestic banks, ignoring mayoral election results, BTP/bund spread tightens 2.0bps and iTraxx Crossover tightens 2.5bps. As a result of Italy's historic bailouts, default probabilities across virtually all Italian banks tumbled. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 0.7% led by food and beverage shares and Nestle SA after hedge fund Third Point announced on Sunday it had amassed a $3.5 billion stake in the region’s biggest company and was going activist. Nestle (25% of SMI) rose ~5% after Third Point took a $3.5b stake, providing further lift to risk sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent, with Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. jumping 6.7 percent to lead an advance among technology shares. Taiwan’s Taiex index rallied 1.3 percent to the highest since 1990, while South Korea’s Kospi increased 0.4 percent to a record. Markets in India, Singapore and throughout much of Southeast Asia were closed for a holiday. Sterling declined as battle lines appeared to harden just a week into Brexit negotiations, and as Theresa May prepared to spell out how EU citizens living in the U.K. will be protected in Brexit. Large spike lower in spot gold, amid little news, became a market focus with USD rallying in tandem. USD/JPY well supported breaking towards 100DMA at 111.80. USTs consequently pressured lower with Eurodollar curve bear steepening. As noted earlier, the big story in commodities this morning was the larger order in Gold futures going through the CME, with up to 20k contracts hitting the yellow metal USD20.0 lower to hit levels just under USD1240. The timing of the move created the volatility, as in terms of volume, this was a relatively moderate amount when taking into account daily volumes, and many see this little more than an exercise in tripping stops through some notable levels on the charts. The 200dma circa USD1237.00 held firm though. On the day, we are still down net 1%, as is Silver, with Platinum and Palladium are also lower by a similar amount. Crude futures hold overnight gain, up 0.8% to trade around $43.35bbl. In FX, the yen fell 0.4 percent to 111.68 per dollar. The pound increased slipped 0.1 percent to $1.2710. The euro weakened 0.1 percent to $1.1182. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1 percent after three days of declines. In economic news, the German June IFO Business Climate rose to new all time highs, hitting 115.1 vs 114.5 est; Expectations also beat (106.8 vs 106.4 est); as did the Current Assessment at 124.1 vs 123.2 est. Over in the UK, a deal between Theresa May and the DUP was finally confirmed according to Bloomberg. Brexit Minister Davis stated he opposes EU demands that its judges retain ability to safeguard 3.2mln EU nationals living in UK after 2019 Brexit. Davis added that tourists will be guaranteed free health cover when they are on holiday in the EU. UK Press also reports that PM May will ensure that thousands of EU criminals will face deportation after Brexit as a key demand when she publishes a 15 page document detailing how she intends to protect the rights of 3.2mln EU nationals residing in Britain. ECB's Weidmann said an extension of QE has not been discussed and that the time may be approaching for the ECB to exit stimulus if the Euro area economy develops as expected. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose one basis point to 2.16 percent. U.K. benchmark yields were little changed at 1.03 percent. Italian yields fell three basis points to 1.88 percent. Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities begin the week on the front foot led by Italian banking names and Nestle GBP has pre-empted source reports suggesting a deal between the Conservatives and the DUP will be announced later today Looking ahead, highlights include German IFO, US Durables and ECB's Draghi Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,440.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 390.32 MXAP up 0.2% to 155.45 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 507.53 Nikkei up 0.1% to 20,153.35 Topix up 0.05% to 1,612.21 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 25,871.89 Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,185.44 Sensex down 0.5% to 31,138.21 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.08% to 5,720.16 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,388.66 German 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 0.252% Euro down 0.03% to 1.1191 per US$ Brent Futures up 1% to $46.01/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 1.627% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.385% Gold spot down 0.9% to $1,244.94 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.08% to 97.34 Top Overnight News Italian banks: govt. commits up to EU17b to clean up failed Veneto banks; will be split into good and bad banks, Intesa Sanpaolo acquires good assets for token amount Italy: Berlusconi party and center right allies perform well in second round of local mayoral elections; of 16 larger cities which had Renzi party-backed mayors, 12 switched to the centre-right German Jun. IFO Business Climate: 115.1 vs 114.5 est; Expectations 106.8 vs 106.4 est; Curr. Assessment 124.1 vs 123.2 est. Fed’s Williams: transitory factors have been pulling inflation lower recently; very strong labor market actually carries with it the risk of the economy overheating ECB’s Weidmann: ECB must resist any outside pressure to continue loose monetary policy longer than needed; council hasn’t discussed possible extension of bond- buying program U.K.: Deal between Conservatives and DUP expected by “lunchtime” today: BBC House Defense Panel Proposes $18.4b Boost to Pentagon Budget Modi Meets Top U.S. CEOs Including Apple’s Cook, Amazon’s Bezos Fed’s Williams Sees Interest Rates Rising as Inflation Moves Up EU Said to Decide on EU1B Fine for Google on Wednesday: FT These Are the U.S. Cities Where It Costs Too Much to Build Corporate Tax Rate at 28% Seen as More Likely Than Historic Cut McConnell’s Health Bill Gamble Hinges on Converting GOP Holdouts Lithuania’s LDT Buys LNG Cargo From U.S. Cheniere Marketing Enterprise’s Seaway Legacy Crude Pipeline Said to Resume Service Bristol-Myers Phase 3 Follow-Up Shows L/T Efficacy of ELd U.S. Asks Supreme Court to Overturn Microsoft Email Ruling Nasdaq Offers Data on Russell Reconstitution for Listed Shares Asian equity markets traded higher across the board, following the mostly positive Wall St. close on Friday where tech outperformed and energy snapped a 4-day losing streak. In Asia, Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) saw minor upside after USD/JPY recovered from opening losses and ASX 200 (+0.1%) was also in the green as utilities and consumer staples kept the index afloat. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) and Hang Seng (+0.4%) led the positive tone in the regions as financials outperformed, despite the PBoC refraining from OMOs for the 2nd consecutive session. 10yr JGBs saw minor gains amid the BoJ's presence in the market for JPY 550b1n of JGBs mostly concentrated in the 5yr-10yr range, while the curve was mixed with outperformance in the belly. BoJ Summary of Opinions from June 15-16th said that Japan's economy has been turning towards a moderate expansion and that the most effective way to reach inflation goal is to continue with the current monetary policy. BoC skipped open market operations Top Asian News As Airbag Crisis Spirals, Takata Files for Bankruptcy Protection Rio Backs Yancoal’s Improved Offer for Coal Mines Over Glencore Naver, Mirae Asset to Buy 500b Won of Shares in Each Other Japanese Banks at Risk as Dollar Borrowing Doubles, BIS Says Takashimaya Reports 1st Qtr Group Earnings Result China to Step Up Scrutiny of Outbound Investments, Xinhua Says Nomura CEO Nagai Gets Record Pay After Reviving Overseas Profit Thai Airways Aims to Buy Almost 30 Planes to Modernize Fleet Toshiba Chip-Unit Bidders Said to Push Back Final Agreement European equities begin the week on the front foot led by banking names after Italy began winding up two failed regional banks over the weekend in a deal that could cost the state as much as EUR 17bIn. Elsewhere, Nestle shares are at record highs this morning following reports that Third Point have purchased a USD 3.5bIn stake in the Co., also supporting L'Oreal shares as Nestle holds a 23% holding. This comes despite reports that Third Point may urge Nestle to offload their stake in L'Oreal. Across fixed income markets, EGB's have been slightly dented by the risk on appetite, which the German curve has seen some modest underperformance in the belly of the curve. Within peripheral markets, BTP's are outperforming Bono's following the weekend bailouts of the troubled Italian banks. Top European News Nestle Targeted by Activist Third Point With $3.5 Billion Stake NN Mis-Selling Case May Require EU500m in Compensation, CS Says Romanian Ruling Party Head Says He Has 5-6 Candidates for New PM ‘Overvalued’ U.K. Bonds Running Out of Reasons to Rally Further Hammerson Rises After Report That Whittaker Builds Stake What One Premier’s Demise Says About Who Runs Europe’s East Russia Tycoon to Buy Holland & Barrett for $2.3 Billion Investment Funds Said to Show Interest in Cortefiel:Confidencial Morgan Stanley May Add 200 Jobs in Frankfurt Over Brexit: WamS In currencies, Monday has seen the usual order testing flow in the markets, with few leads to go off as the bulk of the data slate is stacked up towards the end of the week. Early EUR/USD tests through 1.1200 have failed to generate any fresh momentum, but this has come through a fresh bid in USD/JPY, taking the lead over the cross rates to a modest degree. GBP has pre-empted source reports suggesting a deal between the Conservatives and the DUP will be announced later today, Cable has struggled through the 1.2750 level as there is plenty of interest to sell on the upside with such a lengthy period of uncertainty ahead. EUR/GBP is pushing back to 0.8800 also, but in both cases, we can only see tight ranges — in relative terms playing out, but any announcement alluding to the above will see a GBP bid, temporarily at the very least. In the commodity linked currencies, we have seen some early signs of exhaustion in the NZD, but this may be coming through the AUD/NZD rate as we suggested, but the move above 1.0400 is sluggish as yet. NZD/USD continues to struggle ahead of 0.7300, but AUD/USD also faces resistance closer 0.7600. In commodities, the big story in commodities this morning was the larger order in Gold futures going through the CME, with up to 20k contracts hitting the yellow metal USD20.0 lower to hit levels just under USD1240. The timing of the move created the volatility, as in terms of volume, this was a relatively moderate amount when taking into account daily volumes, and many see this little more than an exercise in tripping stops through some notable levels on the charts. The 200dma circa USD1237.00 held firm though. On the day, we are still down net 1%, as is Silver, with Platinum and Palladium are also lower by a similar amount. Copper has given back some ground, but only after tipping USD2.65 in the move higher. Zinc and Lead outperform on the day however. Oil prices stabilising thankfully, with WTI now settling in the mid USD43.00's, with Brent back above USD46.00 for now. No change in the overall drivers (US shale) in sentiment however, so we remain wary of the sustainability in current levels. Looking at the day ahead, this afternoon in the US the most significant release is the May durable and capital goods orders reports, while the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey will also be released later this afternoon. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.6%, prior -0.8%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.4%, prior -0.5% 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1% 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.5 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 16, prior 17.2 1:20am: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Sydney June 26-June 28: ECB Forum in Sintra With Draghi, BOE’s Carney, BOJ’s Kuroda June 26- June 28: ECB’s Draghi and Former FRB Chair Bernanke Gives A Speech DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As we approach the dog days of summer it's a real struggle to get very excited about much in financial markets at the moment with volatility so low. However there are a few things to watch for this week outside of the usual data points discussed at the end in the week ahead. One of the things to watch out for this week is a potential vote on the Republican’s healthcare bill. According to the FT the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office could release its assessment of the bill as soon as today. The Republican Senate majority leader McConnell suggested a vote could follow later this week. However it remains to be seen if McConnell has enough Republican senators on board with 5 senators supposedly still against the bill in its current form (can only afford 2 dissenters). One of the dissenters, Susan Collins, confirmed that she will wait to see what the CBO analysis today shows. So it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. It’s worth noting that this also follows calls from House Speaker Ryan last week to push ahead with tax reform. So a potential spotlight is being placed back on Washington. Oil is another one to watch with all sorts of micro and macro consequences. WTI is now down -20.72% since closing at its YTD highs towards the end of February and actually -16.13% in the last 23 trading sessions (it is up 1% in the early going this morning however). Obviously this has huge medium term implications for the economy and central banks and with it asset prices. However of more immediate concern is the impact it's having on US Energy credit again. The sector has now given up 6 months of tightening over the last month with our US strategist Oleg Melentyev detailing that spreads have widened by 55bps over the last 2 weeks adding to their previous widening of 50bps from early-May. Ex Energy there are small signs of contagion with US HY spreads 5bp wider over the last two weeks. However pretty much all of this is in effect driven by retail. At $43 oil, Oleg's model shows fair value energy HY spreads being about 50-75bps wider from here. Every further $1 move lower in oil should produce 10bps in energy HY spread widening on top of the stated move to fair value. In their note from Friday they discuss how much lower oil can go before it becomes problematic to the broader HY market? To answer this question, they use a model they created in late 2014 to estimate the breaking point between WTI and potential pickup in credit losses and scatter the oil price to HY Energy Debt/ Enterprise Values. This relationship shows that D/EV is expected to stay inside 50% with oil over $40, and it could reach 55% at $35 oil. Historical evidence suggests that D/EV ratios at 60% or higher lead to a material jump in expected credit losses. See the following note for more on this. A reminder that in Europe we much prefer IG over HY on a valuation basis so perhaps the recent weakness in US HY may help this trade a little. Away from Oil the main piece of news to report from the weekend is the rescue of two Italian Banks. Both Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca are to have €5bn of taxpayer money pumped in to them with their “good” assets transferred to Intesa Sanpaolo for a token price. The vast majority of the €5bn will be for Intesa to allow it to maintain capital ratios. In addition Italy’s government confirmed that the state will make a further €12bn in additional guarantees available. The European Commission has since approved the plan. Italy’s PM confirmed that the lenders will be split into “good” and “bad” banks. Remember that this comes two weeks after Spain’s Banco Popular was rescued by Santander which presented the first test for Europe’s new European bank resolution mechanism. Bloomberg is reporting that senior bondholders for the 2 failed Veneto Banks will be protected while retail sub bondholders (who can be reimbursed up to 80% according to rules) will be fully refunded with Intesa filling the gap. The FT is reporting that around €4bn in shareholder equity and €1.2bn in junior debt will be kept in the liquidated bank and wiped out. Staying with Italy, exit polls and early projections from vote counts reveal that candidates from the centre right including former PM Berlusconi and Salvini (leader of far right Northern League) have won contests for muni elections in the cities of Verona and Genoa (a traditional left-wing stronghold) amongst other smaller towns. The early counts appear to mark a setback for the ruling Democratic Party with the Berlusconi bloc running at about 30% in nationwide polls and tied with the PD, although there is no suggestion yet that Berluscino and Salvini would be willing to form a coalition at the national level. In terms of other things to keep an eye on this week, one event which could be interesting is the annual ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. The forum kicks off this evening and continues through to Wednesday and is more or less equivalent to the Fed’s Jackson Hole event. Mario Draghi is due to speak 3 times over the next couple of days however perhaps the most interesting part of it will be a policy panel on Wednesday afternoon (1.30pm BST) between the ECB’s Draghi, BoE’s Carney, BoJ’s Kuroda and BoC’s Poloz. Given that two of these Central Banks (ECB and BoE) have been the subject of much debate of late this could perhaps throw up one or two interesting snippets. Also of note on Wednesday is the results of the second part of the Fed’s annual bank stress test. The results of this test determine whether or not banks can increase dividends and share repurchases. As a reminder all 34 banks passed the first part of the stress test last week. So all that to look forward to. Before we get there though, the highlight of an otherwise fairly quiet session last Friday was the release of the global flash PMIs for June. Driven by a steep fall in the services reading (-1.6pts to 54.7; 56.1 expected), the composite reading for the Euro area declined to 55.7 for June versus 56.8 in May. That is in fact the lowest reading since January. That said the manufacturing PMI did surpass expectations after rising another 0.3pts to 57.3 (vs. 56.8 expected) and to the highest since April 2011. Regionally services sector declines saw composite readings for both Germany (-1.3pts to 56.1) and France (-1.6pts to 55.3) edge lower while the implied read-through to the non-core countries is an average 0.4pt decline. Our economists in Europe note that the data is however consistent with 0.7% to 0.8% qoq GDP growth in Q2 in the Euro area which represents upside relative to their 0.5% forecast. They also see the weaker June PMIs as a normalisation from elevated levels that overstated the underlying domestic momentum. That said, with evidence of some upward revisions to Q1 GDP data it may be that the survey-hard data gap is closing from both sides. Across the pond the flash PMIs in the US were also a little disappointing. Both the manufacturing and services readings slipped 0.6pts to 52.1 and 53.0 respectively, which resulted in an equal decline in the composite reading to 53.0 which matches March’s level. The only other data in the US on Friday was new home sales for May which rose +2.9% mom and a little less than expected. The end result of that data for markets was a modest gain for US equities with the S&P 500 closing up +0.16% and snapping a run of three consecutive declines. A more stable session for Oil prices (WTI +0.63%) was enough to help energy stocks bounce back and lead gains however in Europe we did see markets close a little off the pace with the Stoxx 600 ending -0.23%. This morning in Asia we’ve seen most bourses kick off the week on the front foot, helped in part by that further bounce back for Oil. The Nikkei (+0.12%), Hang Seng (+0.39%), Shanghai Comp (+0.56%), ASX (+0.06%) and Kospi (+0.37%) are all currently up while US equity index futures are also pointing towards a small positive start. With regards to the other news from Friday, there was a bit more Fedspeak to take note of. The Cleveland Fed’s Mester said that the recent soft inflation data had not changed her view that inflation is on a “gradual path upward”. The St Louis Fed’s Bullard spoke again and reiterated his concerns about the Fed’s projection of another 200bps of policy tightening, but indicated that the Fed could kick off the process of reducing its balance sheet as soon as September. Over to the week ahead now. This morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where the June IFO survey is due out. This afternoon in the US the most significant release is the May durable and capital goods orders reports, while the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey will also be released later this afternoon. Tuesday kicks off in China with industrial profits data. In the UK we’ll then get the CBI retailing sales data before we then get the conference board consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index and S&P/Case-Shiller house prices readings in the US. Turning to Wednesday, the early data in Europe includes France consumer confidence and Euro area M3 money supply. Over in the US on Wednesday we are due to get the advance goods trade balance for May, wholesale inventories for May and pending home sales for May. Thursday kicks off early in Japan with the latest retail trade report. In Europe we’ll then get consumer confidence in Germany, UK money and credit aggregates and confidence indicators for the Euro area. The afternoon will then see Germany release its flash June CPI print while in the US we’ll receive the third and final Q1 GDP report revisions and initial jobless claims data. We end the week on Friday with Japan employment data and CPI along with the China PMIs for June. It’s a busy end to the week in Europe too on Friday with CPI in France, unemployment in Germany, Q1 GDP in the UK (final revision) and a first look at Euro area CPI in June. A busy day concludes in the US with personal income and spending in May, core and deflator PCE readings, Chicago PMI and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for June. Away from the data the Fedspeak this week consists of Fed Chair Yellen tomorrow evening along with Williams, Harker and Kashkari also at various stages tomorrow, and Williams again on Wednesday and Bullard on Thursday. China Premier Li Keqiang speaks early tomorrow morning. Meanwhile the ECB forum which kicks off today will see Carney, Draghi and Kuroda all speak on Wednesday. Other things to note this week is the UK PM May’s speech this afternoon, US Supreme Court decision on Trump’s travel ban today, BoE stability report on Tuesday, the result of the second part of the Fed’s bank stress tests on Wednesday and UK House of Commons vote on Thursday.
2013 г. стал лучшим для японского фондового рынка с 1972 г. Индекс Nikkei 225 вырос на по итогам уходящего года на 57%, чему способствовали удешевление иены и рост прибыльности японских корпораций. Этот год запомнится экономическими экспериментами, которые проводили многие страны. Самый грандиозный из них проходит в Японии. Японская валюта потеряла около 21% с начала года, что стало одним из главных катализаторов роста. Последний раз подобное удешевление иены наблюдалось только в 1979 г. Чистая прибыль выросла до 5,5 трлн иен ($55 млрд) в целом по 1280 крупнейшим нефинансовым компаниям Японии. Прибыль росла самыми быстрыми темпами с 2010 г., показатель в прошлом году составил 2,25 трлн иен. Рост прибыли был зафиксирован у таких компаний, как Panasonic, которая сократила 71 тыс. рабочих мест, Mazda Motor, перенесшей производство автомобилей в Мексику, и Toyota Motor, которая остановила строительство нового завода. Изменение ВВП Японии, г/г В настоящий момент ситуация на иностранных рынках складывается в пользу японских компаний. Однако ситуация с внутренним спросом остается сложной. По опросу экономистов, проведенном агентством Bloomberg, в следующем году темпы роста зарплат составят лишь 0,6%, в то время как уровень инфляции может превысить 3%. Таким образом, заработные платы будут расти в пять раз медленнее уровня цен. Это дополнительно сократит покупательную способность японцев и может сделать курс экономической политики, проводимый премьер-министром Синдзо Абэ, непопулярным.