The near-record string of 10 consecutive Dow Industrials record highs, a streak not seen since early 1987, may be about to end if futures, which are currently trading -0.3% lower, fail to stage a rebound. Global markets started off Friday on the back foot, with most Asian markets dropping, while commodity-related sectors and banks led European shares lower for a third straight session on Friday as the dollar was poised for a weekly loss as the latest attempt to spark the "Trumpflation trade" fizzled, sending gold to $1,256, the highest since the US presidential election, as the dollar slumped following Mnuchin's comments. Investors are turning cautious as European political risks remain and ahead of a major speech from U.S. President Donald Trump next week. The big mover in commodities is Gold which has solidly jumped above the $1,250 level, a largely USD-based move, as risk sentiment rose despite the weaker greenback, but sustainability as these levels (Gold) are key over coming sessions. Gold's rise for a fourth week was aided by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said Thursday he expects low borrowing costs to persist, sparking a drop in the dollar. Mnuchin also took the edge off the recent market optimism when he said any policy steps by the Trump administration would probably have only a limited impact this year. The comments, made in his first televised interviews since taking office last week, suggested much work was still needed on a sweeping tax reform plan that Mnuchin called his main priority. "Mnuchin's comments were less belligerently reflationary than they could have been, in a dollar strength context, and that probably did much of the damage (to the dollar)," said UBS Wealth Management currency strategist Geoffrey Yu, in London. Concerns about the credibility of Trump's tax plan also emerged: “Next week it will be three weeks since President Trump promised something ‘phenomenal’ with respect to tax reform and investors are starting to become a little restless,” Michael Hewson, the London-based chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a report. If Trump’s speech next week fails to provide details, “then the rally that we’ve seen in the past three months could become susceptible to some profit-taking,” he said. As a result, a fifth weekly gain for global equities that’s helped push their value above $70 trillion is losing momentum as money managers grapple with political uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s schedule for lifting borrowing costs. Traders are taking profits before Trump’s address to House and Senate lawmakers Tuesday in the U.S. European shares slid after subdued forecasts from European bluechips including BASF and Vivendi and a drop in mining shares, while Standard Chartered was among the worst performers in the FTSE 100 as profits fell short of analyst expectations. RBS also trades in the red after the bank announced a whopping GBP 7bIn loss for 2016. Elsewhere, French telecom giant Vivendi is the notable laggard across Europe amid reports that Milan prosecutors are looking in the company over alleged market manipulation in stake building in MediaSet. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.3 percent as of 10:06 a.m. in London, dropping for a third day and paring a weekly advance. London copper prices recovered slightly from their big overnight fall on the back of fresh doubts about Chinese demand. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 was up 0.8 percent at $5,907 a tonne by 0700 GMT after falling 3 percent in the previous session. Japan’s Topix index lost 0.4 percent. The gauge rose 0.4 percent for the week. Futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent. The index rose less than 0.1 percent on Thursday, while the Dow posted a 10th day of gains, its longest streak of record closes since 1987. Oil prices fell after U.S. crude inventories rose for a seventh week, showing the market is still struggling to ease oversupply despite producers' efforts to rein in output. Benchmark Brent crude oil was down 48 cents at $56.10 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate traded at $54.06 a barrel, down 39 cents. In rates, German bonds were supported as credit spreads widened. German two-year yields dropped three basis points, with the ECB’s bond-buying program seen supporting the sector. Having routed the French bond market recently, sellers are now focusing on Italy where the German-Italian 10Y spread rose above 200 bps. The swap spread rose to new records across the two- to five-year sector. A note from Citigroup suggested that German two-year yields could fall to minus 1 percent or more, as the ECB will be forced to buy more short-dated bonds. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,354 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 371 MXAP down 0.4% to 145.92 MXAPJ down 0.5% to 468.82 Nikkei down 0.5% to 19,283.54 Topix down 0.4% to 1,550.14 Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 23,965.70 Shanghai Composite up 0.06% to 3,253.43 Sensex up 0.1% to 28,892.97 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 5,738.99 Kospi down 0.6% to 2,094.12 German 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 0.204% Euro up 0.07% to 1.0589 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.7% to $56.19/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 2.225% Spanish 10Y yield rose 5.4 bps to 1.74% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $56.19/bbl Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,255.96 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.90 Top Overnight News from BBG Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc laid out a plan to cut costs by 2 billion pounds ($2.5 billion) over the next four years as it posted its ninth straight annual loss and delayed profitability targets After striking deals in Russian oil and Congolese copper mining, Glencore Plc has set its sights on the U.S. grain- trading industry Pimco says Beijing’s “cautious tightening signals” are largely being ignored by banks and at the local level, where attention is focused on maintaining steady economic growth Value Partners, one of the world’s best-performing junk bond funds, is betting on stressed debt New Exxon Chief Darren Woods is focusing on climate change, calling for a carbon tax to discourage use of polluting fuels In Asia, equity markets traded lower following a mixed lead from US where the DJIA and S&P 500 were buoyed by healthcare and utilities. ASX 200 (-0.8%) underperformed and was weighed by the metals & mining sector amid commodity prices sliding lower, after Dalian Iron ore declined 5.5% yesterday. Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) conformed to the downbeat tone despite support from a weakening JPY overnight as well as Toshiba stocks trading higher by around +5%. In China, Hang Seng (-0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) suffered from the PBoC's trend of ever weakening liquidity injections this week, with the daily operation providing only a total of CNY 30bIn. 10yr JGBs traded higher due to the risk averse tone in the region with the curve flattening amid outperformance seen in the super long end. Top Asia News Japan Equity Movers: Komatsu, Kobe Steel, NEG, Morinaga, Line China’s New Banking Regulator Chief Faces Daunting Challenges Calmer Asian Currencies Spell Return of Global Yield Hunters ANA to Spend $270 Million to Raise Stake in Peach Aviation China H Shares Pare Weekly Gain as Anhui Conch, Great Wall Drop Options Traders Make Bullish Bets on HKEX as Earnings Loom Hong Kong Awards Ap Lei Chau Site For HK$16.9b to Logan, KWG Hong Kong Existing Home Prices Climb to Record, Defying Curbs Pearson Weighs Options for English-Language Units in China European bourses have started the last trading session of the week on the backfoot, with Standard Chartered among the worst performers in the FTSE 100 as profits fell short of analyst expectations, while RBS also trades in the red after the bank announced a whopping GBP 7bIn loss for 2016. Elsewhere, French telecom giant Vivendi is the notable laggard across Europe amid reports that Milan prosecutors are looking in the company over alleged market manipulation in stake building in MediaSet. Across fixed income markets, yields in the German 2-yr took another leg lower to print fresh record lows (as a reminder, the ECB previously said that they investigating the squeeze in the Eurozone repo market), the GE-FR spread continues to see some modest widening, while the fixed income space has been supported by the wave of short covering. Top European News RBS Cuts CEO’s Potential Share Award 40% After Ninth Annual Loss Jupiter Fund CEO Says Firm Is Big Enough to Remain Independent Lower Turkish Rate Bets Emerge as Swap Curve Pares Inversion Mnuchin Tells Carney to Expect America-First Push on Regulation UniCredit’s Record $13.8 Billion Rights Offer 99.8% Subscribed Banco BPM Extends Drop; Shares From Withdrawal Right From Feb In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.1% after falling 0.3 percent in the previous session. The yen rose 0.1 percent to 112.3 per dollar, after rising 0.6 percent Thursday. It's been more of the same in the FX markets today as the USD continues to lose ground, but very modestly so given the consensus base line of 2 Fed rate hikes this year. Rather the moves are reflective of the skew moving towards an `on-hold' call at the March meeting, though the odds are mixed among the surveys, stretching form circa 20-40% for a 25bp rate hike. Looking at the USDJPY, TSY yields are grinding towards the lower end of the range established in recent months, with the key 10yr still inside 2.30-2.55%. We have dipped under 2.37% this morning, resulting in a rather reluctant move below 112.50, though no sudden urge to recover. This is much the same for the EUR/USD move towards 1.0600, but with (French/Dutch) election news subsiding, the single unit has moderated since. GBP is in limbo as a result, with EUFt/GBP drawn towards the 0.8450 level. We have attempted a return towards 0.8400 — which may well still materialise — but comments from the Bundesbank's Dombret including the prospects of UK access looking 'rather dim' have, at the very least, curtailed the impromptu rise in GBP. Cable is struggling well ahead of 1.2600, as it did in yesterday's North American session. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate traded 0.6 percent lower at $54.12 a barrel. Brent fell 0.7 percent to $56.22. The big mover in commodities are in precious metals where Gold has now pierced the USD1250 level, though with limited momentum. This is purely USD based, as risk sentiment remains on an even keel, so sustainability as these levels (Gold) are key over coming sessions. Base metals may be showing some gains on the day, but after reports that president Trump's fiscal plans may be delayed into next year, Copper has retreated some way below the USD2.700 level, dragging Iron Ore with it. Adding pressure on the latter are reports of growing stockpiles in China, and this has clear implications on demand forecasts going forward. Oil prices still holding familiar territory on hopes that the agreed production cuts will be followed up by 100% compliance. Yesterday's build reported in the DoE reported a small build, but having a modest impact in the aftermath. Looking at the day ahead, the only data due is January new home sales (expected to bounce back) and the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. US Event Calendar 10am: New Home Sales, est. 570,500, prior 536,000; MoM, est. 6.44%, prior -10.4% 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 96, prior 95.7; Current Conditions, prior 111.2; Expectations, prior 85.7; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.8%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5% * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It's perhaps not the best time to admit that I've no idea why Bunds are rallying so hard at the moment. 10y yields (-4.7bps) hit 0.228% yesterday, down from their YTD peak of 0.495% intraday on the 26th of January. 2y yields also closed another -3.0bps lower yesterday at -0.932%. They traded as ‘high’ as -0.648% back on the same day. The most obvious explanation is of course Euro systemic risk - especially from France and perhaps Italy. However other markets (equities, equity vol, the Euro, broader credit spreads etc) aren't moving much to price in redenomination risk in Europe. A lack of high quality collateral has been cited as an explanation but it's not clear there is much new info on this over recent days to explain the move. Perhaps it's as simple as government bond investors are generally by nature ultra conservative and Bunds seemingly offer complete safety from redenomination risk. Although on this we'd note that yesterday 10 year French OAT yields fell another -3.6bps and hit their lowest yield (0.978%) for 4 weeks. Ironically the latest Q4 Germany GDP numbers yesterday showed the country as ending the year as the fastest growing advanced economy in 2016. Indeed 2016 GDP growth in Germany was +1.9% which compares to +1.8% for the UK, +1.7% for the Eurozone and +1.6% for the US. New US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin does however expect growth in the US to hit a “sustainable growth rate of 3% or more” towards the end of next year following comments in a televised interview with CNBC yesterday. Mnuchin also said that the new administration is looking closely at the border adjustment tax and that the White House wants to pass a “very significant” tax reform by August. There was also some focus on his remarks about possibly issuing 50y or 100y Treasury bonds, saying that they are exploring the option and that they will reach out to the market and investors. On China and the recent FX manipulation chatter Mnuchin stopped short of labelling China a manipulator but said that the Treasury would go through the usual processes of looking at “currency manipulation across the board” suggesting also that no judgments will be made before the Treasury’s April report. On a related note there was also some focus on a Business Insider report suggesting that Trump may be considering delaying a proposed $550bn infrastructure spending plan until 2018. The crux of it was that the administration’s time is being taken up by other big proposed reforms including taxes and the Obamacare repeal and that a timing delay to 2018 would make sense in the context of next year’s mid-term elections. While industrials and materials names did underperform on the back of that report it was still another fairly dull session overall for US equities. The S&P 500 finished +0.04% while the Dow ended +0.17% and took its run of new record highs to ten sessions in a row. By the way that is now 52 days that the S&P 500 hasn’t closed up or down by more than 1%. As a reminder the run in 2014 was 62 days so it’s now within sight. Needless to say that the VIX – little changed at 11.71 yesterday – continues to hover only just above the decade low levels. In rates Treasury yields also marched lower yesterday. 10y yields finished the day -4.1bps lower at 2.373% and are now down some 18bps from the January highs. The curve did however steepen slightly (30y yields finishing -2.0bps lower) probably reflecting those Mnuchin comments about possible ultra long-dated issuance. In commodities WTI Oil (+1.60%) did rise back above $54/bbl following the latest inventory data although base metals took a hit with Iron Ore and Copper in particular both down over 3%. With little new news to report of this morning it appears that those declines in metals are to blame for a soft end to the week for risk in Asia. The Nikkei (-0.49%), Shanghai Comp (-0.35%), Hang Seng (-0.34%) and ASX (-0.85%) are all in the red. Currencies have been relatively flat while rates are stronger. Moving on. The Fedspeak continued again yesterday although it’s clear that the market is failing to price in much more chance of a March move despite a number of Fed officials signalling how “live” the March meeting is. Atlanta Fed President Lockhart was the latest yesterday and he said also that there will be “serious consideration” at the meeting but also that the term “fairly soon” (in reference to the FOMC minutes) “leaves options open for probably the next three meetings”. Lockhart also spoke about the balance sheet and said that he would be in favour of letting “natural runoff gradually shrink the balance sheet”. Late last night Dallas Fed President Kaplan also said that the committee should keep options open for a March move. Bloomberg’s calculator currently sits at a 38% probability for a March rate hike. It’s worth noting that the US data was a bit of a sideshow yesterday. Initial jobless claims came in at 244k and marginally higher than the week before while the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey index rose 5pts to +14 and the highest since June 2011. Meanwhile there were also some comments from Bundesbank President Weidmann yesterday. He opined that “the balance of risks might be more favourable today that it was before” and that possible market anticipations about a lift in interest rates by the ECB in 2019 “don’t sound absurd” and are “in the possibility that I see”. Staying in Europe, in terms of the other data yesterday, in Germany the latest consumer confidence reading revealed a small 0.2pt tick down in confidence to 10.0 although it’s worth highlighting that that is still at relatively elevated levels versus the last few years. In France business confidence was flat in February and in the UK the CBI’s distributive trades survey pointed to some improvement in retailers’ sales in February following a soft January. Just wrapping up, it’s worth noting that following a positive meeting between Merkel and Lagarde on Wednesday concerning Greece, the creditors are now expected to return to Greece next Tuesday where talks should focus on the exact fiscal tightening measures needed over 2018 and 2019, as well as conditional easing. So worth keeping an eye on how things proceed there. Looking at the day ahead, it looks set to be a fairly quiet end to the week. In Europe this morning we’ll get the February consumer confidence reading as well as industrial orders and sales data in Italy. Over in the US the only data due is January new home sales (expected to bounce back) and the final revisions to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.
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По итогам торгов четвергав Америке индекс Dow Jones вырос на 0,17%, S&P – на 0,04%, Nasdaq снизился на 0,43%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 20810,32 пункта, S&P – 2363,81, Nasdaq – 5835,51 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND уменьшился на 1,64% и составил 67461,39 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 опустился на 0,42% и закрылся на уровне 7 271,37 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 снизился на 0,09% и закрылся на уровне 4 891,29 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX в минусе на 0,51% и к закрытию составил 11 934,7 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei опустилось к настоящему времени на 0,47% и составило 19280,71 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 снизился на 0,05% и находится на уровне 3471,437 пункта. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG опустился на 0,44% и находится на уровне 24007,63 пункта.
Основные фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона торгуются в красной зоне, так как, опубликованные на этой неделе, протоколы заседания ФРС показали осторожный подход к повышению процентных ставок в США. Котировки на крупнейшей в Азии токийской фондовой бирже снижаются на фоне роста курса иены. Также на динамику торгов влияет политическая неопределенность в Европе и неясность в политике новой администрации США. Производители электронных компонентов и промышленного оборудования получили прибыль в ходе торгов: акции Alps Electric подорожали на 0,6%, Keyence Corp - на 1,1% и Advantest Corp - на 0,8%. Акции производителей авто продавались хуже, поскольку инвесторы беспокоиться по поводу протекционистской позиции президента США Дональда Трампа: Рыночная стоимость Toyota Motor Corp снизилась на 0,6%, а Mazda Motor Corp - на 0,3%. Nikkei 225 19,258.91 -112.55 -0.58% Shanghai Composite 3,242.12 -9.26 -0.28% S&P/ASX 200 5,736.90 -47.76 -0.83% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Торги на Токийской фондовой бирже (ТФБ) открылись сегодня снижением основных показателей.Ключевой индекс Nikkei, отражающий колебания курсов акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, за первые 15 минут операций (к 03:15 мск) опустился на 0,66%, до отметки 19239,12 пункта. Более широкий индекс TOPIX, отражающий курсы акций всех компаний...
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei -8.41 19371.46 -0.04% TOPIX -0.84 1556.25 -0.05% Hang Seng -87.10 24114.86 -0.36% CSI 300 -16.44 3473.32 -0.47% Euro Stoxx 50 -5.31 3333.96 -0.16% FTSE 100 -30.88 7271.37 -0.42% DAX -50.76 11947.83 -0.42% CAC 40 -4.59 4891.29 -0.09% DJIA +34.72 20810.32 +0.17% S&P 500 +0.99 2363.81 +0.04% NASDAQ -25.12 5835.51 -0.43% S&P/TSX -49.02 15781.20 -0.31% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,365.00 (+0.17%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.11% до уровня 5,357.00. Внешний фон нейтральный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в минусе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент преимущественно повышаются. Nikkei 19,371.46 -8.41 -0.04% Hang Seng 24,114.86 -87.10 -0.36% Shanghai 3,251.09 -10.13 -0.31% FTSE 7,304.06 +1.81 +0.02% CAC 4,911.10 +15.22 +0.31% DAX 11,992.55 -6.04 -0.05% Мартовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $54.72 за баррель (+2.11%) Золото торгуется по $1,249.30 за унцию (+0.82%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительный рост. Инвесторы продолжают анализировать опубликованный накануне протокол последнего заседания Комитета по открытому рынку (FOMC) ФРС, в котором была отмечена возможность дальнейшего ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики ФРС. Кроме того, в фокусе внимания участников рынка находятся данные по количеству обращений за пособиями по безработице в США. Как сообщили в Министерстве труда США, число американцев, претендующих на получение пособий по безработице, выросло чуть больше, чем ожидалось на прошлой неделе, но осталось вблизи исторически низкого уровня, который согласуется со здоровым рынком труда США. Согласно отчету, с учетом сезонных колебаний количество первичных обращений за пособием по безработице на неделе, завершившейся 18 февраля, увеличилось на 6 000, до уровня 244 000. Экономисты ожидали, что число обращений увеличится до 241 000. Показатель за предыдущую неделю (по 11 февраля) был пересмотрен до 238 000 с 239 000. Стоит подчеркнуть, число обращений остается ниже 300 000 в течение 103-и недели подряд, что является самой длительной серией с 1970 года, когда население США и численность рабочей силы были намного меньше, чем сегодня. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить обнародованные накануне квартальные результаты компаний Tesla (TSLA) и HP (HPQ). Tesla показала неоднозначные квартальные результаты. Согласно обнародованному отчету, компания закончила последний квартал 2016 года с убытком на уровне $0.69 в расчете на одну акцию. Данный результат зафиксировал улучшение по сравнению с убытком в $0.87 на акцию в четвертом квартале 2015 года, но оказался хуже среднего прогноза аналитиков, который предполагал убыток на уровне $0.53. Квартальная выручка компании составила $2.285 млрд. (+88.2% г/г), тогда как средний прогноз аналитиков предполагал $2.204 млрд. В компании также сообщили, что запуск производства Model 3 и солнечных крыш состоится, как и прогнозировалось, во второй половине года. Однако отметили, что даже незначительные сдвиги в пару недель в сроках могут оказать существенное влияние на общий объем поставок и инсталляций. Поэтому в компании фокусируются на прогнозах на первое полугодие. Tesla планирует поставить 47000-50000 моделей автомобилей Model S и Model X в первой половине 2017 года, что означает рост поставок транспортных средств на 61%-71% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года. Акции TSLA на премаркете снизились на 2%. В то же время квартальные результаты HP превзошли как оценки аналитиков, так и аналогичные показатели за соответствующий период предыдущего года. Прибыль компании по отчетного периода достигла $0.38 в расчете на одну акцию против зафиксированных $0.36 по итогам аналогичного периода предыдущего года и прогноза аналитиков на уровне $0.37. Выручка компании составила $12.684 млрд., что оказалось на +3.6% больше, чем за аналогичный квартал прошлого года и на 7.3% выше, чем прогнозировали аналитики. В компании подтвердили прогноз показателя прибыль на акцию на 2017 ФГ на уровне $1.55-1.65 против среднего прогноза аналитиков $1.59. Акции HPQ на премаркете выросли на 2.2% . После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные министерства энергетики по изменениям запасов нефти в США на прошлой неделе, которые выйдут в 16:00 GMT.Источник: FxTeam
One day after the FOMC Minutes guided to a rate hike "fairly soon", but not soon enough in the eyes of the market (March hike odds dropped after the release), the dollar has posted minimal gains, while global stocks held near record highs on Thursday; S&P futures were fractionally in the green to start the session; crude climbed back above $54 after API showed U.S. stockpiles fell. US and euro zone government bond yields fell or held steady as concerns of an imminent rate hike faded. The rally that has taken the value of global equities to over $70 trillion and the MSCI All-Country World Index to a record, appears to again be losing momentum as investors grapple with political uncertainty and the Fed’s schedule for lifting borrowing costs. The minutes showed many Fed policymakers said it may be appropriate to raise rates "fairly soon" if jobs and inflation data met expectations. But they also highlighted deep uncertainty over President Donald Trump's economic program and wrestled with uncertainty on issues ranging from the Trump administration’s fiscal stimulus plans to the headwinds a rising dollar may pose. Stocks in Europe were mixed in early trading before rising led by telecommunications companies, following solid earnings from Telefonica SA. Bank stocks were stronger on the back of solid earnings from Barclalsy whose profit before tax of £3.2bn for 2016, rose threefold from the £1.1bn the year before. Its reorganisation has included the sale of its Africa business and selling off "non-core" assets. The STOXX 600 stocks index was marginally higher and close to 14-month highs touched on Tuesday. A 4 percent fall in miner Rio Tinto and a fall of nearly 5 percent in EasyJet, which were among companies whose shares went ex-dividend, weighed on the index. The MSCI Asia index ex-Japan edged up 0.1 percent, trading near the highest level since July 2015 it hit on Wednesday. Earlier, the index lost as much as 0.15%. Japan's Nikkei closed fractionally lower, as banks fell, and Australian shares ended down 0.4 percent. MSCI's world index also nudged higher and was within half a point of Wednesday's record high. The dollar edged up less than 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies but held below highs hit on Wednesday, having fallen immediately after the minutes were released. The euro, which has been buffeted by investor nerves over France's presidential election, to be held in April and May, was flat at $1.0556. The yen was also barely changed at 113.28. Sterling strengthened 0.2 percent to $1.2468. As discussed yesterday, in addition to Trump's policies on taxes, spending and trade, markets are now trying to gauge his attitude to the dollar. Trump said before his inauguration that the dollar's strength against the Chinese yuan was "killing us", raising concern in the "strong dollar" policy espoused by recent U.S. administrations could change. However, in an interview with the WSJ, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin praised the strong dollar on Wednesday, saying it reflected confidence in the economy. French bonds advanced after a pact between independent presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron and centrist Francois Bayrou, which for now has helped ease fears the country could elect a leader who favors leaving the European Union. "Yesterday's developments in France were positive for French bonds and broader risk appetite," said Orlando Green, European fixed income strategist at Credit Agricole in London. Earlier this morning, French OATs extended gains, led by the 10y-30y sector, as 30y bonds fall as much as 4bps following latest OpinionWay poll showing gains for Macron in second round. Poll shows Macron would beat Le Pen 60%-40% in the second round; that compares with 59%-41% spread in Wednesday’s poll. Italian bonds underperform with 10y yields rising 6bps, leading losses, as concession is built ahead of next week’s supply, which include two issues in the 10y bucket for €2-3BN. German 10Year bonds edged up 1 basis point to 0.28%, having closed on Wednesday at 0.27 percent. Stronger-than-expected demand at sale of 20-year debt causes Japan’s sovereign curve to flatten; bonds rise in Singapore ahead of this year’s first 10-year sale. Oil prices rose after data showed a decline in U.S. crude stockpiles as imports fell. Brent crude last traded at $56.56, up 72 cents a barrel. Prices have been rising since the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers agreed output cuts last year. "It's a battle between how quick OPEC can cut without shale catching up," said Tony Nunan, oil risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp in Tokyo. Copper fell almost 1 percent to $5,982 a tonne on concern about fresh regulation that could affect China's property boom. Gold rose less than 0.1 percent to $1,238 an ounce, supported by uncertainty over the Fed rate outlook. Zinc and nickel also fell more than 1 percent. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,362.75 STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 373.55 German 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 0.274% Euro down 0.2% to 1.0542 per US$ Brent Futures up 1.5% to $56.67/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 5.3 bps to 2.194% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.3 bps to 1.69% MXAP little changed at 146.12 MXAPJ little changed at 470.84 Nikkei down 0.04% to 19,371.46 Topix down 0.05% to 1,556.25 Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 24,114.86 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,251.38 Sensex little changed at 28,862.89 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,784.66 Kospi up 0.05% to 2,107.63 Brent Futures up 1.5% to $56.67/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,237.58 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 101.39 Top Overnight News via BBG Barclays shares rose to the highest in more than a year as its capital ratio exceeded expectations and the bank signaled progress in efforts to divest its Africa unit and sell off unwanted assets Carlyle Group is closing the money raising process this week for its fourth fund that will focus on distressed debt and special-situations after reaching its target of $2.5 billion Mohamed El-Erian is warning traders not to get complacent about the prospect of a Fed interest-rate hike next month Germany’s central bank increased risk provisions to manage losses it anticipates to make once ECB starts to raise interest rates Smaller Chinese banks have sold record amounts of short-term debt this month before possible new rules that would constrain their ability to issue the securities The U.K. won’t be able to retake complete control of its destiny though Brexit, European Central Bank chief economist Peter Praet said Allergan has “no interest” in Valeant Pharmaceuticals, most likely not even “in pieces,” Allergan CEO Brent Saunders said during an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York. PSA Ready for ‘Opportunities’ as Profit Gain Helps Opel Stance Tesla Keeping Model 3 Steady Overshadows CFO Exit, Cash Needs HP Sales Soar Past Estimates on Personal-Computer Strength Exxon Caves to Oil Crash With Historic Global Reserves Cut Asia equity markets traded mixed following a weak lead from Wall Street where the Dow Jones outperformed amid rising du Pont and Dow Chemical merger bets. ASX 200 (-0.4%) underperformed amid losses seen in the metals and mining sector as Rio Tinto (-5.2%) shares sunk, while Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) traded in the red amid a firmer JPY and a mild pullback of yesterday's gains in Toshiba (-4.7%) shares. Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) traded in the red following a weak CNY 50bIn liquidity injection by the PBoC, while Hang Seng (-0.3%) was led lower following reports that Chinese banks could pass on higher funding costs to customers amid increasing short-term borrowing rates. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid the risk-off tone in the region with the yield curve beginning to flatten in the super long end, while participants look ahead to the auction for 20yr government paper. Top Asian News SoftBank Denies It’s Looking for Stake in Merged Vodafone- Idea Chinese State Fund’s Broker Says It’s Buying Hong Kong Stocks Emerging-Markets Hedge-Fund Assets Reach Record in ’16, HFR Says Hong Kong Property Stock Rally Gathers Pace on Earnings Outlook Japan Stocks to Watch: NTT Docomo, Takata, Tepco, Mitsui & Co China Said to Appoint Guo Shuqing as Banking Regulator Head: WSJ Adelson’s Sands Missing Stock Rally as Rivals Pull in VIPs China Expands Drug Insurance Coverage in Boost to Pharma Stocks BAT Forecasts Earnings Growth Amid Race for Smoking Alternatives European bourses opened mixed but now trade mostly higher as earnings dictate play, Barclay's (+3.5%) profits almost treble to GBP 3.2bIn and the Co. reported strong progress in restructuring and Glencore (+2.4%) also impressed investors with annual profits rising 48% off the back of higher commodities prices and strong trading results. Telecoms outperform after Orange reported better than expected earnings. Fixed income, underperformance has been noted in the periphery as Italian yields trade wider by 1.7% with Italian press reporting that former PM Renzi is looking to call new elections in early June. Analysts at Citi noting a June election would be challenging but not impossible. The GE/FR spread had tightened post yesterday's news that Centrist Bayrou has pulled out of the French election race lending support to Macron, however there has been a bit of an unwind in recent trade. Top European News Glencore Completes Turnaround as Profit Soars on Trading Copper Strike Poses Supply Threat Even After Miners Return Leviathan Partners Approve $3.75 Billion Gas-Development Plan Downbeat Outlook Eclipses Magyar Telekom Profit as Shares Fall U.K. Claim That Burning Biomass Is Clean Seen as ‘Flawed’ Centrica Sees No Reason for Further Rough Impairments Now: In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1 percent, after falling 0.2 percent on Wednesday. The yen added 0.2 percent to 113.14 per dollar, following a 0.3 percent gain the previous day. The euro weakened 0.2 percent to $1.0538 after gaining 0.2 percent on Wednesday. It's been a very quiet morning in FX, with the FOMC minutes offering little fresh insight into Fed thinking. UST yields hold their ground however, but this may waiver as the count down to the March FOMC looms. This explains the range bound markets seen today, which looks set to continue over coming weeks. EUR/USD has been in focus, but looks reluctant to retest 1.0500 after yesterday's brief dip below here, but all now depends on whether Le Pen's performance in the polls changes to any notable degree. USD/JPY is also largely sidelined, but if stocks hold up, we expect little deviation from 112.50-114.50, and testing these limits looks unlikely any time soon. The crosses have also stabilised, most significantly EUR/JPY, having recovered 1 JPY from yesterday's lows circa 118.50. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.4 percent to $54.33 a barrel, rebounding from a 0.9 percent drop in the previous session. Movement across the spectrum of commodities remains confined to near term ranges, highlighted by the WTI test of USD55.00 earlier in the week - which was swiftly rejected. This may change later today ahead of the DoE report, with prices better supported despite the raft of inventory data to its detriment. Production cuts (and more to come?) are perhaps yet to feed through, and this looks to be driving the support seen on dips. Gold (and Silver) continue to dance to the tune of the USD, but we are ever watchful on equities which relentlessly push higher. Copper is back testing USD2.70 again, but all base metals have slipped a little on the back of the overnight CAPEX data. Less so Nickel as the Philippines environment minister underlined her backing from the president. Looking at today’s calendar, in the US we’ve got initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey. Away from the data the Fedspeak continues with Lockhart (1.35pm GMT) and Kaplan (6.00pm GMT) both scheduled. The ECB’s Praet is also due to speak at various stages through the day. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Jan., est. 0.00, prior 0.14 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Feb. 18, est. 240k, prior 239k; Continuing Claims, Feb. 11, est. 2068k, prior 2076k 9am: House Price Purchase Index QoQ, 4Q, prior 1.5%; FHFA House Price Index MoM, Dec., est. 0.5%, prior 0.5% 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Feb. 19, prior 48.1 11am: Kansas City Fed. Manf. Activity, Feb., est. 9, prior 9 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Fort Worth DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap If you're someone who is disillusioned with global politics at the moment then yesterday you were perhaps offered an escape route assuming you have 39 years of travelling time left in you and you can source a spaceship that can move at the speed of light. If you tick both boxes then hop along to the Trappist-1 star system and its newly discovered seven earth sized planets, three of which scientists have deemed to be in the 'habitable zone'. I read about this last night while watching the 'Brit Awards' (UK version of the Grammys) where tributes were paid to the likes of David Bowie. I couldn't help be thankful that our planets have better names than the ones scientists discovered yesterday. I'm not sure "Is there life on 'E' 'F' or 'G'?" would quite have worked played with a haunting piano line. In markets yesterday planet F referred to the Fed and France as they were the two big macro stories. Starting with the former, the main passage to note from the FOMC minutes last night was that “many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the committee's maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased”. While there was that mention of “many participants” the “fairly soon” aspect of timing makes it hard to argue that March is any closer for the next move. That said it was highlighted that “a few participants noted that continuing to remove policy accommodation in a timely manner, potentially at an upcoming meeting, would allow the Committee greater flexibility in responding to subsequent changes in economic conditions” suggesting that there are a few members who would clearly be happy going next month. In terms of the mention of future balance sheet strategy the only real takeaway was the reference that “participants also generally agreed that the committee should begin discussions at upcoming meetings about the economic conditions that could warrant changes in the existing policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities and principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, as well as how those changes would be implemented and communicated”. So no real new insight on that front. With regards to Trump and the question marks there, the minutes showed that “most participants continued to see heightened uncertainty regarding the size, composition and timing of possible changes to fiscal and other government policies, and about their net effects on the economy and inflation over the medium term, and they thought some time would likely be required for the outlook to become clearer”. All in all then a fairly balanced set of minutes. Bloomberg’s calculator shows the probability of a Fed hike in March at 34% this morning which is actually down slightly from 36% the day before. May is at 62% from 59% - so not particularly big moves. Markets elsewhere didn’t really do much in the aftermath either. 10y Treasury yields closed out at 2.414% which was down 1.6bps on the day, having traded as high as 2.452% earlier on. The Greenback finished slightly lower (-0.15%) while risk assets were subdued. The S&P 500 (-0.11%) suffered only its third negative day in the last 3 weeks although the Dow (+0.16%) did finish higher and in doing so marked a three-decade record of nine consecutive new record closing highs. While we’re on the Fed it’s worth noting that Fed Governor Powell also spoke yesterday and said that a hike is warranted “fairly soon” should the economy continue on its current path. When asked if March is on the table, his reply was “Yes”. Meanwhile in France the latest update is the news that centrist candidate Francois Bayrou will now team up with independent candidate Macron in forming an alliance in the presidential election. The news should be a small positive for Macron. Bayrou had been running at around 5-6% in the recent polls and a portion of that should now transfer to Macron in the first round. An Elabe poll released on Tuesday found that Macron would get 17% of votes in the first round if Bayrou decided to run, and 18.5% without Bayrou running. So that suggests a 1.5% swing in Macron’s favour. The same poll showed Fillon as benefiting from an extra 1% from Bayrou not running with the rest split around the far left and right. So as we noted a very marginal positive for Macron. The suggestion is that Bayrou has a strong influence on the centrist electorate so it could still be a bigger boost to Macron further down the line. European bond markets were notably stronger yesterday including a bounce back for 10y OATs (-7.4bps) to 1.006%. They outperformed Bunds (-2.1bps to 0.275%) while peripherals were a bit more mixed (yields flat to 6bps lower). It’s worth highlighting that 2y Bund yields finished down another 2bps yesterday at -0.902% and so extending their record low. They are in fact now down 24bps from the highs in January which has coincided with political uncertainly steadily climbing higher. European equities were alot more mixed yesterday. The Stoxx 600 finished -0.01%, the DAX +0.26% but the peripherals were much weaker with the IBEX and FTSE MIB -0.88% and -0.83% respectively. This morning bourses in Asia are generally trading in the red with commodity related names in particular underperforming. The Nikkei (-0.27%), Hang Seng (-0.48%), Shanghai Comp (-0.39%) and ASX (-0.26%) are all lower as we goto print. Yesterday’s declines across base metals don’t appear to be helping although Oil (+0.88%) has bounced back over $54/bbl following a -1.36% loss yesterday. Sovereign bond yields in Asia have also generally tracked lower. Staying in Asia it’s worth noting that the National People’s Congress (NPC) in China is now just around the corner with the event kicking off on March 5th. As a reminder this is where the government sets out its working plan for the year. Our China Chief Economist Zhiwei Zhang published a report yesterday previewing the event with what he expects to hear. He thinks that the government will set a growth target broadly unchanged from last year, keeping 6.5% as the floor. He is curious if the government will send signals on how they are going to handle the pressure from the US on trade issues. Further opening up some service sectors may be one option. Zhiwei highlights that investors should also pay close attention to press conferences during the NPC. Experience in the past suggests that messages from those press conferences may have a significant impact on the market. Also worth highlighting yesterday are our published takeaways from DB’s Bank Capital Forum 2017. Every year, the event brings together major investors, issuers and senior regulators to discuss the latest market and regulatory developments in banking. This year’s main topic was bank resolution and the keynote address was delivered by Dr. Elke König, Chair of the EU Single Resolution Board. It was followed by a regulatory outlook panel, issuer panel and investor panel. The report should be in your inbox, contact [email protected] if not. Wrapping up, yesterday’s economic data in the US was reserved to the January existing home sales report which revealed that sales rose a better than expected +3.3% mom in January (vs. +1.1% expected). In Europe the notable data was the Germany IFO survey. The headline business climate reading jumped 1.1pts to 111.0 (vs. 109.6 expected) and so matching the December level again which is the highest since March 2014. Firms were most upbeat about the current assessment of the economy with that component rising 1.5pts to 118.4 while the expectations component rose 0.8pts to 104.0. Meanwhile in the UK Q4 GDP was confirmed at a slightly above market +0.7% qoq (vs. +0.6% expected) but earlier downward revisions meant annual growth was revised down two-tenths to +2.0% yoy. Finally there were no surprises in the final January CPI print for the Euro area at -0.8% mom. That puts the headline annual rate at +1.8% while the core is at +0.9%. Looking at today’s calendar, this morning we’re kicking off in Germany again where we’ll get the final revisions to Q4 GDP (no change from the +0.4% qoq flash expected) along with the various growth components. Also due out will be various confidence indicators in France for February along with the UK’s CBI distributive trades survey for February. This afternoon in the US we’ve got initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey. Away from the data the Fedspeak continues with Lockhart (1.35pm GMT) and Kaplan (6.00pm GMT) both scheduled. The ECB’s Praet is also due to speak at various stages through the day.
Торги на Токийской фондовой бирже (ТФБ) завершились сегодня минимальными колебаниями основных индексов у нулевой черты. Ключевой для Японии индекс Nikkei, отражающий курсы акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, к окончанию операций опустился на 0,04% - до 19371,46 пункта. Более широкий TOPIX, фиксирующий курсы акций всех компаний в элитной первой...
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По итогам торгов среды в Америке индекс Dow Jones вырос на 0,16%, S&P снизился на 0,11%, Nasdaq – на 0,09%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 20779,83 пункта, S&P – 2362,82, Nasdaq – 5860,8 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND уменьшился на 0,67% и составил 68589.54 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 поднялся на 0,38% и закрылся на уровне 7 302,25 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 вырос на 0,15% и закрылся на уровне 4895,88 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX в плюсе на 0,26% и к закрытию составил 11 998,59 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei опустилось к настоящему времени на 0,03% и составило 19373,76 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 опустился на а 0,69% и находится на уровне 3465.82 пункта. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG снизился на 0,35% и находится на уровне 24116.
Основные фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона торгуются в красной зоне, отойдя от 19-ти месячных максимумов, в то время как доллар сделал неравномерное восстановление от потерь, перенесенных после того, как протоколы ФРС показали осторожный подход к повышению процентных ставок в США. Широчайший Индекс MSCI по акциям Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона за пределами Японии понизился почти на -0,1%. Японский Nikkei поскользнулся 0,35%, а австралийские акции отступили на 0,2%. Котировки на токийской фондовой бирже снизились, так как финансовые акции подешевели после того, как доходность казначейских бумаг США упала на протоколе последнего заседания Комитета по денежной политике Федеральной резервной системы, которые показали осторожный подход к повышению процентных ставок в США. Доходность 10-летних США упала до 2.39% - самого низкого уровня с 9 февраля. Акции Nomura Securities упали на 2,1%, а Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group - на 1,2%. Экспортеры также утратили позиции: Toyota Motor Corp потеряли 0,3% стоимости акций и Honda Motor Co - -1,5%. Nikkei 225 19,334.84 -45.03 -0.23% Shanghai Composite 3,248.38 -12.84 -0.39% S&P/ASX 200 5,789.40 -15.70 -0.27% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei -1.57 19379.87 -0.01% TOPIX +1.49 1557.09 +0.10% Hang Seng +238.33 24201.96 +0.99% CSI 300 +6.94 3489.76 +0.20% Euro Stoxx 50 -0.06 3339.27 +0.00% FTSE 100 +27.42 7302.25 +0.38% DAX +31.10 11998.59 +0.26% CAC 40 +7.12 4895.88 +0.15% DJIA +32.60 20775.60 +0.16% S&P 500 -2.56 2362.82 -0.11% NASDAQ -5.32 5860.63 -0.09% S&P/TSX -92.15 15830.22 -0.58% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,358.00 (-0.08%), фьючерс NASDAQ остается без изменений на уровне 5,343.75. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию преимущественно в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент преимущественно повышаются. Nikkei 19,379.87 -1.57 -0.01% Hang Seng 24,201.96 +238.33 +0.99% Shanghai 3,260.94 +7.61 +0.23% FTSE 7,284.65 +9.82 +0.13% CAC 4,886.14 -2.62 -0.05% DAX 11,979.36 +11.87 +0.10% Мартовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $53.97 за баррель (-0.66%) Золото торгуется по $1,240.30 за унцию (+0.11%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения, так как инвесторы ожидают публикацию протокола последнего заседания Комитета по открытому рынку (FOMC), прошедшего 31 января - 1 февраля, который может дать им новое понимание относительно будущего повышения процентной ставки. Представители Федеральной резервной системы, в том числе председатель регулятора Джанет Йеллен уже не раз намекали о возможности повышения ставки раньше, чем позже. Но трейдеры закладывают в цены достаточно незначительные шансы, что ставки будут повышены в период до июня, даже несмотря на сильные экономические показатели. По данным Thomson Reuters, инвесторы оценивают шансы на повышение ставки в марте в 22%, в мае в 47% и в июне в 69%. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные по продажам жилья на вторичном рынке, которые выйдут в 15:00 GMT. Кроме того, важным событием сегодня может стать выступление представителя ФРС Джерома Пауэлла, начало которого запланировано на 18:00 GMT. После закрытия торговой сессии ожидается публикация квартальной отчетности Tesla (TSLA). Аналитики прогнозируют, что по итогам отчетного периода компания покажет убыток на уровне $0.53 в расчете на акцию при выручке в $2.204 млрд.Источник: FxTeam
What started off in familiar fashion, with Asian stocks rising, and Europe hitting multi-month highs and US futures in record territory has stumbled in recent minutes following a continued rush for safety in short-dated German Bunds (the 2Y is now trading at -0.92%) and ongoing selling in the USDJPY, which has pushed Stoxx 600 back to unchanged, and S&P futures to modestly red for the session. The exact catalyst is unclear although traders are citing continued French political risks, as the recent OAT selloff continued this morning on Le Pen fears. Earlier in the session, global stocks hit record highs on Wednesday, pushing gains for the year above those for all of 2016, while the dollar rose before Federal Reserve minutes that will be scoured for clues on the timing of the next U.S. interest rate rise. MSCI's main index of global stocks, which tracks share prices across 46 countries, hit a second successive record high. It has risen some 5.7 percent so far this year, beating the 5.6 percent gains of 2016. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was at the highest level since July 2015 as Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong resumed a rally. Japanese equities managed to end higher even after fluctuations in the yen pressured the Topix. European shares followed Asian bourses higher, buoyed by all main indexes on Wall Street touching record closing highs on Tuesday with Britain's Lloyds Banking Group was up 3 percent after reporting its highest full-year profit in a decade, although that early optimism appears to have faded. As a result, markets painted a mixed picture of investor sentiment on Wednesday, as political risk sent both the euro and German two-year bond yields lower while global equities tracked a U.S. rally. The dollar edged higher before the release of Fed minutes, up 0.3% at 101.64, gaining against the euro and sterling, pressuring oil lower. The day's most anticipated event for markets will be the release of the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week it was likely the central bank would need to raise rates at an upcoming meeting. Markets have priced in only a slim chance of a rise next month but a much greater likelihood in May or June. The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of major currencies and 0.3 percent versus the euro. Economists expect to see further discussion in the minutes of the Fed’s balance sheet strategy given that many monetary policymakers have been publicly discussing the topic, even though it is clear that policymakers have not yet reached a consensus on the particulars of the Fed’s reinvestment policy. Additionally, DB economists expect the Fed to announce tapering of reinvestments this December, effective in January 2018. However they also expect a slower pace of tapering because the Fed will likely want to put as much distance between the Fed funds rate and the zero rate lower bound before risking greater disruptions to the long end of the Treasury curve. Thus, they still see the Fed hiking four times next year. Another key question many will hope to see some clarity on is whether March is "live" despite the Fed's generally less than hawkish announcement: it is not clear how the Fed will bridge its actual dovish statement to hawkish minutes that suddenly make the March meeting in play. Back to markets, where the Euro has dropped for a fourth day, dropping below 1.05 per dollar for the first time in more than six weeks. That lent early momentum to stocks, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index advancing for a fourth session, however the rally has since fizzled. Germany’s Dax Index, already at an almost two-year high, briefly crossed the 12,000 level. Technology stocks outperformed with Ericsson surging following an upbeat Bank of America-Merrill Lynch note. Basic resources sector fell, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in a note commodity markets need proof of demand to rally further. Lloyds Banking Group Plc rose 3.7 percent as the mortgage lender swung to a quarterly profit and boosted its dividend. Futures on the S&P 500 were trading modestly in the red. The index added 0.6 percent Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Russell 200 Index closing at all-time highs. EU data saw the inflation rates as expected: core y/y unchanged at 0.9%. German IFO current conditions and expectations both exceeded consensus forecasts at 118.4 and 104 respectively. European politics and the prospect of higher U.S. rates pushed the gap between short-dated U.S. and German benchmark government bond yields to its widest in nearly 17 years. German two-year yields hit a record low of minus 0.92 percent while U.S. equivalents touched 1.24 percent. Oil prices dipped. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded at $56.50 a barrel, down 17 cents. Copper also fell, as traders reduced their positions before the Fed minutes, though supply disruptions supported prices. The metal last traded at $6,030 a tonne, down 0.5 percent on the day. Gold edged up 0.1 percent to $1,236 an ounce. On today's calendar are the abovementioned minutes from the latest Fed meeting, which traders hope will provide details on whether March is indeed "live" as a bevy of recent Fed speakers have suggested. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% at 2,357.75 STOXX Europe 600 down less than 0.1% to 373.33 MXAP up 0.6% to 146.14 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 470.46 Nikkei down 0.01% to 19,379.87 Topix up 0.1% to 1,557.09 Hang Seng Index up 1% to 24,201.96 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,261.22 Sensex up 0.4% to 28,879.78 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,805.10 Kospi up 0.2% to 2,106.61 German 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 0.275% Euro down 0.3% to 1.0504 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.6% to $56.32/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 6.3 bps to 2.247% Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.683% Brent Futures down 0.6% to $56.32/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,237.29 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 101.64 Top Overnight News from BBG Fed’s $2.5 Trillion Hoard of Treasuries Seen Barely Shrinking McDonald’s to Cut Prices on Drinks as Fast-Food Industry Slumps Toll Brothers Beats Estimates as Company Delivers More Homes Facebook Said in Talks to Stream Major League Baseball Games Samsonite Says Mulling U.S. Manufacturing, But Not Due to Trump UPS Races to Cut Costs as E-Commerce Shifts Deliveries to Homes ConocoPhillips’ Reserves Drop to 15-Year Low as Oil- Sands Fade Ternium to Buy CSA Siderurgica do Atlantico From Thyssenkrupp Mexico and Canada Say Nafta Should Be Re-Negotiated Trilaterally Aramco Picks JPMorgan, HSBC, MS as Lead Underwriters Asian markets traded mostly higher following the positive lead from Wall Street where all 3 major US indices posted gains of at least 0.5%. ASX 200 (+0.2%) saw mild upside amid buoyant consumer staples and healthcare sectors, however upside was limited by gold miners. Nikkei 225 (flat) initially declined amid the risk averse sentiment in the region alongside JPY strength, however double digit gains seen in Toshiba shares helped return the index to flat on the session. China was traded higher as Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) initially lingered in the red following a weak liquidity injection by the PBoC but staged a late recovery, while Hang Seng (+0.8%) outperformed with properties leading the index as China Resources Land and China Overseas shares both surged more than 3%. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid the risk averse tone in the region, while the BoJ bond buying operation also provided support for the Japanese paper. Top Asian News China’s $9 Trillion Moral Hazard Problem Grows Too Big to Ignore China Home Prices Rise in Fewest Cities in a Year Amid Curbs Petron Malaysia 4Q Net Income 112.6m Ringgit Vs 16.2m Rgt Y/y China Insurance Watchdog Vows to Severely Punish Speculators Anta Sports Proposes Higher Dividend; FY Net in Line With Est. Indonesia Debt Attractive for Manulife Even as Yield Gap Narrows China’s $9 Trillion Moral Hazard Grows Too Big to Ignore European bourses have faded early gains, with Price action in equity markets has been dictated by the latest slew of earnings. UK financials have been led higher by Lloyds after the bank reported profits were ahead of analyst expectations, while the DAX broke above 12000 to touch its highest level since Apr'15 with Thyssenkrupp leading the index amid reports that they will divest assets of their Brazilian steel plant. Another day, another record low for the Schatz which is now yielding -0.9% amid signals that the ECB is buying German bonds, in particular those with a yield below the -0.4% deposit rate, which implies strong demand. While investors are seemingly holding off selling their short-end German debt as they are used as collateral to receive cash at the ECB, subsequently reigniting the fears of last year of a collateral squeeze which Draghi and Co. attempted to address in December. Additionally, the decline in the 2-yr yield has been much more pronounced (falling 13bps from Friday) since Le Pen's significant narrowing in the Presidential poll seen at the back-end of last week (now over 40%). Top European News German Business Sentiment Rises as Bundesbank Sees Growth Pickup Airbus Takes $2.3 Billion A400M Hit, Sees Profit Gain This Year RWE Writes Off 4.3 Billion Euros on Sliding Power Prices U.K. Gained Momentum at End of 2016 on Trade, Consumer Spending May Faces Calls to Tighten Takeover Rules After Kraft- Unilever In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent, reversing an earlier drop. The yen led advances in major currencies, strengthening 0.5 percent to 113.17 per dollar, following two days of declines. The British pound weakened 0.3 percent. The EUR is the big mover on the day as the fall out of the recent Le Pen gains (in the polls) continues. This has had a notable impact into short end German paper as investors are driven into 'safe havens' - precious metals also benefiting. EU/USD has now tested below 1.0500 and continues to do so, with the early drivers coming from EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY specifically. This looks set to continue as long as the polls remain where they are, and breaking some notable support levels, the cross rates in particular look vulnerable. EU data saw the inflation rates as expected — core y/y unchanged at 0.9%. German IFO current conditions and expectations both exceeded consensus forecasts at 118.4 and 104 respectively. Both Cable and USD/JPY have been impacted, with the former pushed up through 1.2500 in the early exchanges before 1.2500+ sellers overwhelmed. This pair remains range bound inside 1.2350-1.2600 for now, but the latest Q4 business investment figures disappointed — falling 0.9% vs +0.4% previously, though the GDP rate was revised up slightly to prompt some immediate algo driven buying. USD/JPY has now slipped back to 113.00 as a result, with lacklustre UST yields also playing their pair. The 10yr rate looks pretty stagnant inside the 2.30-2.55% range, but this translates into limited momentum in the spot rate either way In commodities, gains in Gold (up 0.1% to $1,237) are perhaps more of a function of risk sentiment as the political arena in Europe grabs more of the attention. The polls show Le Pen making some notable gains, albeit still behind in the 2nd round, but enough to unnerve EUR holders at the very least if not investors globally. Safe haven flow has prompted significant moves in shorter end Bunds, but given the safe haven aspect, Gold has also benefited alongside Silver. Energy prices have seen some downside in European trade, paring some of yesterday's gains which saw WTI fail to make a sustained break above USD 55.00/bbl. Furthermore, participants will likely be looking ahead to today's rescheduled API release which has recently provided a slew of large builds.. Comments from Barkindo on further compliance have supported, but last night's rhetoric from Iran suggested a move to $60.00 would hurt OPEC — in terms of deterring fresh production (Shale?). Inventory levels for Iron Ore in China are grabbing more of the headlines, and may put the brakes on some of the moves seen in base metals of late. On the day, Lead is the out-performer, while Copper gives back some of its recent gains, though holds comfortably above $2.70. Looking at the day ahead, in the US the lone data release is January existing home sales. Later this evening we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the Jan 31st/Feb 1st meeting. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Powell at 6pm GMT, while BoE deputy governor Cunliffe is due to speak later this morning. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -3.7% 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.55m, prior 5.49m; MoM, est. 1.09%, prior -2.8% 1pm: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook in New York 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets are in a celebratory mood at the moment with the flash European PMI’s for February lending further strength to the argument of an improving growth picture in Europe. Indeed the composite reading for the Euro area surged 1.6pts to 56.0 in February after the consensus was for broadly little change. That is the highest reading since April 2011 while the details revealed a 0.3pt rise in the manufacturing PMI to 55.5 and an even more significant 1.9pt jump in the services reading to 55.6. The country level breakdown also revealed an impressive 1.3pt jump in the composite for Germany to 56.1 and a 2.1pt jump in the composite for France to 56.2. So decent evidence that the European economy is showing signs of strong upward growth momentum in the first quarter of this year with growth also encouragingly broad-based by sector and country. Significantly that data is also coming despite an increasingly uncertain political environment. Much has been made of the recent tightening in the French polls in favour of Le Pen versus Macron and Fillon. Yesterday we got more evidence of that with the release of another poll. The Elabe poll (covering 18-20 Feb) revealed first round support for Le Pen of 27.5% (up from 26% from the same pollster earlier this month) while support for Fillon actually rose 3 points to 20% and support for Macron fell about five points to 18.5%. In the second round a Le Pen – Fillon race has the latter coming out on top at 56% versus 44% which is unchanged, but a Le Pen – Macron race showed the margin of loss for Le Pen as tightening to 18% (59% versus 41%) from 26%. It’s worth noting that a live TV debate between Fillon, Hamon, Le Pen, Macron and Melenchon has been scheduled for March 20th, so that might be one to note in the calendar. In terms of markets, French 10y OATs (+2.9bps to 1.080%) again underperform Bunds (+0.3bps to 0.296%) which in turn sent the spread between the two to a new four-and-a-bit year high of 79bps. The peripherals were also anywhere from 3bps to 7bps higher yesterday although in Greece 2y yields (-102bps) hit their lowest level since January following that news that Greece’s creditors are to return to continue discussions, suggesting a political framework is in place to allow an agreement to proceed. Treasury yields also edged a bit higher with the 10y yield up 1.4bps to 2.429% although that was actually despite some disappointment in the latest PMI’s there (more on that below). Instead it was another day of familiar record highs for US equities which dominated the headlines with the S&P 500 (+0.60%), Dow (+0.58%), Nasdaq (+0.47%) and Russell 2000 (+0.75%) indices all notching up new all time highs. Better than expected results in the retail sector from Wal-Mart and Home Depot seemed to help, as did further gains for Oil with WTI finishing up +1.02% and back above $54/bbl. Looking ahead to today, while there’s not a huge amount of data scheduled we will get the FOMC minutes later this evening from the Jan 31st/Feb 1st meeting. Our US economists noted in their daily that they expect to see further discussion in the minutes of the Fed’s balance sheet strategy given that many monetary policymakers have been publicly discussing the topic. They note though that it’s clear that policymakers have not yet reached a consensus on the particulars of the Fed’s reinvestment policy. Our economists have however re-evaluated the likely path of Fed balance sheet adjustments. They continue to expect the Fed to announce tapering of reinvestments this December, effective in January 2018. However they also expect a slower pace of tapering because the Fed will likely want to put as much distance between the Fed funds rate and the zero rate lower bound before risking greater disruptions to the long end of the Treasury curve. Thus, they still see the Fed hiking four times next year. Keep an eye on the minutes this evening for any more clues. Back to markets where this morning in Asia it’s been a bit of a mixed start. While the Nikkei, Kospi and ASX are little changed, the Hang Seng is up +0.82% following stronger than expected GDP data out of Hong Kong (+1.2% qoq in Q4 versus +0.7% expected). On the other hand bourses in China are modestly in the red (Shanghai Comp -0.15%) following a strong start in the first two days of the week. In other markets the US Dollar is flat after the Fed’s Mester said that the Fed doesn’t want to surprise markets on possible future rate hikes. US equity index futures are also little changed Oil has continued to push on and bonds are mixed, albeit with modest moves. Moving on. Trump related headlines may have abated somewhat in the last week or two but that’s not to say that this will continue. Our FX colleagues pointed out in a piece yesterday that two forthcoming events could bring more clarity to the border adjustment tax debate in particular. Trump is due to address a joint session of Congress on February 28th while the release of the White House’s “phenomenal” tax plan in the next fortnight or so could bring some clarity to the White House’s position. Both occasions could see a definitive endorsement or rejection of the Ryan-Brady BAT proposal and tip the balance in Congress. The team highlight that anecdotally, investors remain unconvinced that border adjustment will happen. Beyond this, it is impossible to derive a market-implied probability. But at least we can gauge the market's fear of border adjustment from a number of instruments which would be idiosyncratically affected. Specifically, the discount of WTI over Brent futures has widened again since almost closing in early January. Since border adjustment would likely result in WTI trading at a premium, the oil market appears to increasingly discount the reform. The US retail sector, moreover, has almost fully closed its underperformance in the stock market since early January, also reflecting diminished fears of a BTA-driven rise in import costs. Lastly, the US breakeven curve still prices a higher risk of a nearterm, transient inflation shock than earlier this year, but this is probably consistent with lingering expectations of some protectionist measures, not just the BAT proposal. In conclusion our colleagues highlight then that the relevant principal component of these proxies suggests that the market has gradually discounted the border adjustment reform over the past three weeks, and expectations are now even below the peak of early January, prior to President Trump's critical remarks in the Wall Street Journal on 15 January. Hence, while the market hasn't fully priced it out, the risk is increasingly skewed toward Trump surprising the market with an endorsement of the Ryan-Brady proposal. Wrapping up the remaining data yesterday, as noted earlier overall the PMI’s in the US were a little disappointing. Both the flash February services (-1.7pts to 53.9; 55.8 expected) and manufacturing (-0.7pts to 54.3; 55.4 expected) readings fell after expectations were for modest gains. That resulted in a dip in the composite to 54.3 from 55.8 although putting it in context that is still above the levels in 10 of the 12 months in 2016. There was also some Fedspeak to take stock of. Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that “at this point I would not take March off the table” while also highlighting that there is still important data to come. Meanwhile comments from BoE Governor Carney seemed to help Sterling to climb slightly after he said that if the Brexit process proceeds “relatively smoothly to an increasingly clear end-point” then that “would be consistent with a higher path of interest rates”. Looking at the day ahead, this morning we’ll be kicking things off in Germany where the February IFO survey will be released. Shortly after that we get preliminary Q4 GDP in the UK with the various growth components also due to be released. The other data due out this morning will be the final January revisions for Euro area CPI. This afternoon in the US the lone data release is January existing home sales. Later this evening we’ll get the FOMC minutes from the Jan 31st/ Feb 1st meeting. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Powell at 6pm GMT, while BoE deputy governor Cunliffe is due to speak later this morning.
Горовосходители. Все выше, и выше, и выше. Нет, пока еще не альпинисты и кошки, крючья и альпенштоки пока не нужны. Участники рынка пока дружною толпой просто поднимаются наверх - уверенно и без особых видимых усилий. И это хорошо.
Торги на крупнейшей в Азии Токийской фондовой бирже (ТФБ) завершились сегодня колебаниями котировок у нулевой черты на фоне укрепления иены.Ключевой индекс Nikkei, отражающий колебания курсов акций 225 ведущих компаний страны, по итогам торгов опустился на 0,01%, до 19 379,87 пункта. Более широкий индекс TOPIX, отражающий курсы...
Китайский фондовый индекс CSI300 теряет 0,16%. Китайские валютные резервы в январе составили $3 трлн долларов, потеряв за месяц приблизительно на $13 млрд. Индекс цен на жилье в КНР в январе составил 12,2% г/г, против 12,4% за предыдущий период. Японский индекс Nikkei 225 демонстрирует нулевую динамику. Фьючерс на индекс S&P 500 прибавляет 0,08%. Котировки поддержали сильные годовые отчетности ритейлеров. В частности, результаты выше ожиданий представила крупнейшая в мире розничная торговая сеть Wal-Mart . Среди ключевых релизов статистики на внешних рынках сегодня стоит отметить данные по динамике пересмотренного ВВП Великобритании за 4 кв. в 12.30 мск. (прогноз +2,2% г/г), окончательные данные по индексу потребцен в еврозоне за январь в 13.00 мск. (прогноз +1,8% г/г) и данные по продажам домов в США за январь в 18.00 мск (прогноз 5,54 млн). К текущему моменту основные сорта нефти дорожают в пределах 0,5%.
Внешний фон для российского рынка выглядит неоднозначно. Китайский фондовый индекс CSI300 теряет 0,16%. Китайские валютные резервы в январе составили $3 трлн долларов, потеряв за месяц приблизительно на $13 млрд. Индекс цен на жилье в КНР в январе составил 12,2% г/г, против 12,4% за предыдущий период. Японский индекс Nikkei 225 демонстрирует нулевую динамику. Фьючерс на индекс S&P 500
Внешний фон для российского рынка выглядит неоднозначно. Китайский фондовый индекс CSI300 теряет 0,16%. Китайские валютные резервы в январе составили $3 трлн долларов, потеряв за месяц приблизительно на $13 млрд. Индекс цен на жилье в КНР в январе составил 12,2% г/г, против 12,4% за предыдущий период. Японский индекс Nikkei 225 демонстрирует нулевую динамику. Фьючерс на индекс S&P 500 прибавляет 0,08%. Котировки поддержали сильные годовые отчетности ритейлеров. В частности, результаты выше ожиданий представила крупнейшая в мире розничная торговая сеть Wal-Mart. Среди ключевых релизов статистики на внешних рынках сегодня стоит отметить данные по динамике пересмотренного ВВП Великобритании за 4 кв. в 12.30 мск. (прогноз +2,2% г/г), окончательные данные по индексу потребления в еврозоне за январь в 13.00 мск. (прогноз +1,8% г/г) и данные по продажам домов в США за январь в 18.00 мск (прогноз 5,54 млн).
2013 г. стал лучшим для японского фондового рынка с 1972 г. Индекс Nikkei 225 вырос на по итогам уходящего года на 57%, чему способствовали удешевление иены и рост прибыльности японских корпораций. Этот год запомнится экономическими экспериментами, которые проводили многие страны. Самый грандиозный из них проходит в Японии. Японская валюта потеряла около 21% с начала года, что стало одним из главных катализаторов роста. Последний раз подобное удешевление иены наблюдалось только в 1979 г. Чистая прибыль выросла до 5,5 трлн иен ($55 млрд) в целом по 1280 крупнейшим нефинансовым компаниям Японии. Прибыль росла самыми быстрыми темпами с 2010 г., показатель в прошлом году составил 2,25 трлн иен. Рост прибыли был зафиксирован у таких компаний, как Panasonic, которая сократила 71 тыс. рабочих мест, Mazda Motor, перенесшей производство автомобилей в Мексику, и Toyota Motor, которая остановила строительство нового завода. Изменение ВВП Японии, г/г В настоящий момент ситуация на иностранных рынках складывается в пользу японских компаний. Однако ситуация с внутренним спросом остается сложной. По опросу экономистов, проведенном агентством Bloomberg, в следующем году темпы роста зарплат составят лишь 0,6%, в то время как уровень инфляции может превысить 3%. Таким образом, заработные платы будут расти в пять раз медленнее уровня цен. Это дополнительно сократит покупательную способность японцев и может сделать курс экономической политики, проводимый премьер-министром Синдзо Абэ, непопулярным.