Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,591.75 (+0.38%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.49% до уровня 6,347.25. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют рост. Nikkei 22,416.48 +154.72 +0.70% Hang Seng 29,818.07 +557.76 +1.91% Shanghai 3,411.09 +18.69 +0.55% S&P/ASX 5,963.52 +17.85 +0.30% FTSE 7,412.05 +22.59 +0.31% CAC 5,380.62 +40.17 +0.75% DAX 13,187.63 +128.97 +0.99% Январские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $56.45 за баррель (+0.05%) Золото торгуется по $1,276.50 за унцию (+0.09%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют позитивную динамику. Поддержку рынку оказали несколько позитивных квартальных отчетов корпоративного сегмента, особенно ритейлеров. Акции Hormel Foods (HRL), Urban Outfitters (URBN) и Dollar Tree (DLTR) подорожали после публикации квартальной отчетности. Кроме того, в фокусе участников рынка остаются акции компаний AT&T Inc. (T) и Time Warner (TWX). Напомним, вчера появилось сообщение о том, что Министерство юстиции США подало иск о блокировании сделки слияния компаний, стоимость которой оценивается в $85.4 млрд. По словам Минюста, сделка негативно скажется на конкуренции в отрасли и приведет к росту тарифов для операторов кабельных сетей. В AT&T заявили о готовности решать данный вопрос в суде. На премаркете акции T снизились на 0.2%, тогда как акции TWX повысились на 0.4%. Важных статистических данных, которые смогли бы оказать влияние на настроения участников рынка, перед открытием не публиковалось. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные по продажам жилья на вторичном рынке, которые выйдут в 15:00 GMT. Стоит учесть, что эта неделя является сокращенной - в четверг финансовые рынки США будут закрыты в связи с празднованием Дня благодарения, а в пятницу торги на основных американских рыночных площадках завершаться раньше обычного. Это может наложить определенный отпечаток на ход торгов в ближайшие дни.Источник: FxTeam
Bonds, Futures, Global Stocks All Rise, Boosted By "Germany's Brexit Moment"; TSY Curve Collapse Continues
S&P 500 futures are higher, continuing on yesterday's momentum, after European and Asian shares also rose alongside a rebound in oil, as the year-end performance chase appears to be accelerating. There were several different moving parts in a mixed European session, in which early Euro strength gave way to weakness... ... which in turn pushed the Stoxx 600 and US index futures higher, rising above yesterday's session high on negligible volumes. Global equity futures rallied with Hang Seng futures outperforming and flash smashing to close the session, after a strong finish for Chinese equities following a report out of MNI that Chinese deleveraging may not be as stringent next year. European stocks rose this morning (Stoxx 600 +0.3%) as the Euro sank, helped by positive notes out from Goldman Sachs, who are overweight European automakers. Goldman said in a Europe strategy note that “deep value sectors” (autos, oil, and utilities) will help Stoxx Europe to return 12% in next 12 months. As a result, European automakers outperform led by VW for a second straight day, with the SXAP index advancing as much as 1.9%, best of 19 groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark (Volkswagen +3.8%, Porsche +2.7%, BMW +2%, Daimler +1.7%). Additionally, Imperial Brand shares rallied after their CEO change, as analysts speculate that this could increase the likelihood that the company will be taken over by Japan Tobacco. Airliner EasyJet is flying high this morning following strong financial results. Bunds are taking another look at 163.00+ levels having faded rallies above the big figure on several occasions recently. Stocks have already moved on from this weekend's German government crisis: German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Germany was facing its worst governing crisis in the 68-year history of its post-World War Two democracy and pressed all parties in parliament “to serve our country” and try to form a government. “The events have already been likened to Germany’s Brexit-moment,” said Daniel van Schoot, an economist at Rabobank. “That is perhaps exaggerated, but the German political situation is now very unpredictable, more than in the past three decades.” Bonds across the region followed a rise in Treasuries after the European Central Bank was said to be likely to make only small adjustments to its guidance on monetary policy next year. EGBs rallied led by gilts which are supported ahead of index extension tomorrow, additionally some focus from European traders on dovish ECB sources piece from yesterday. The dollar stayed within relatively tight ranges versus its major peers, with average volumes. The euro and the pound edged higher, backed by leveraged interest, only to be capped by their respective 55-DMAs before shedding gains. The Swedish krona led G-10 losses on the back of record low interbank rate fixings, while the Turkish lira pared a drop to an all-time low after the central bank raised borrowing costs. Meanwhile, sterling was steady and gilts advanced amid reports Prime Minister Theresa May has the backing of ministers to offer the European Union more money to break the Brexit deadlock. The Australian dollar dropped to a five-month low after suggestions from the central bank that interest rates will stay lower for longer; EUR/SEK breache'd 10.00 briefly before fading back. Turkey’s lira hit a new record low against the dollar but pared some of the drop after its central bank tightened liquidity, as the standoff between Erodogan and central bank continues. In overnight central bank announcements, the Bank of England's Deputy Governor Cunliffe said inflation has been a bit lower than BoE forecast in Autumn and that it’s possible to wait before tightening policy until there is clear evidence that pay growth is responding to unemployment level. Elsewhere, RBA minutes from November 7th meeting stated that any further appreciation in AUD would slow expected pick-up in inflation and the economy. The minutes also stated that there is considerable uncertainty on how fast wages might pick up and add to inflation, while it added that a pass through to inflation may be delayed by many factors. RBA's Lowe stated that there is 'not a strong case' for near-term change in interest rates with the bank paying attention to soft wage growth. In the U.S., confirmation that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will leave the board in February creates a fourth vacancy for President Trump to fill, making it trickier for investors to bet on the central bank’s interest rate trajectory next year. While the Thanksgiving holiday gives traders an excuse to pause, equities are heading into the end of the year near their peaks, with investors optimistic about global growth and company earnings. Meanwhile the collapse in the US Treasury curve continued, with 2s10s moving below 60bps, and screaming inversion as soon as early next year. At the same time, The gap between French and German borrowing costs on Tuesday narrowed to its tightest level since before the euro zone debt crisis of 2010-2012. Germany’s 10-year yield fell two basis points to 0.34%, the lowest in almost two weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield decreased four basis points to 1.257%, the lowest in almost two weeks. Japan’s 10-year yield dipped one basis point to 0.033%, the lowest in more than a week. Oil prices rose on expectations of an extended OPEC-led production cut, although rising output in the United States capped gains. Brent crude futures were up 0.78 percent to $62.72. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.6 percent to $56.09 a barrel. Gold increased 0.3 percent to $1,280.39 an ounce. Copper gained 0.3 percent to $3.13 a pound, the highest in more than a week. Expected economic data include Chicago Fed National Activity Index and existing home sales. Companies including Medtronic, Lowe’s, Salesforce, Analog Devices, HP Enterprise and HP Inc. are reporting earnings Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk EU bourses firmer this morning with auto names racing away amid a positive note from Goldman Sachs FX price action fairly tepid thus far. Looking ahead, highlights include US existing home sales, APIs, ECB’s Coeure and Fed’s Yellen Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 2,586.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% at 387.49 MSCI Asia up 0.9% to 171.57 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 1.1% to 565.37 Nikkei up 0.7% to 22,416.48 Topix up 0.7% to 1,771.13 Hang Seng Index up 1.9% to 29,818.07 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,410.50 Sensex up 0.4% to 33,492.20 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,963.52 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,530.70 German 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 0.346% Euro down 0.08% to $1.1724 Italian 10Y yield fell 2.7 bps to 1.543% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.4 bps to 1.491% Brent futures up 0.8% to $62.69/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,280.53 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 94.08 Top Overnight News U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won the backing of ministers on both sides of her divided cabinet to offer the European Union more money to break the Brexit talks deadlock; Barring some major breakthrough, global banks will implement their relocation plans early next year to guarantee they’re able to have new offices inside the EU running by the time the U.K. exits German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she’s ready to face voters again to break the country’s political stalemate, betting they won’t blame her for failed talks on forming a coalition Germany: FDP chairman reaffirms rejection of four-party talks; SPD reiterates they will not be part of a grand coalition Putin held a surprise meeting with Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, kicking off a diplomatic drive this week to outline the terms of an end to the Middle Eastern country’s civil war; Putin will speak by phone with Trump later Tuesday, the Kremlin said The ECB is likely to make multiple small adjustments to its guidance on monetary policy next year rather than any major change in language as it ends quantitative easing, according to euro-area officials familiar with the thinking of policy makers BOE: Cunliffe says CPI will peak in 4Q 2017, it’s possible to wait before tightening; McCafferty says equilibrium unemployment rate may be below 4.5% RBA’s Lowe: no strong case for a near-term adjustment in policy, more likely that next move in rates will be higher; increasingly likely that inflation will be subdued for some time yet MNI: PBOC deleveraging campaign may ease somewhat in 2018; PBOC will continue to manage currency and capital controls for at least another decade, according to people familiar Turkey Central Bank: has decided to provide all funding from its late liquidity window effective Wednesday, which will raise the weighted average cost of funding by 25bps Nestle Is Said to Be Among Potential Hain Celestial Suitors AT&T, U.S. Prepare to Battle in Court Over Time Warner Merger Cannabis Grower Aurora Plans to Go Hostile With CanniMed Bid ECB Is Said Likely to Take Small Steps in QE Exit Guidance Asian equity markets were higher across the board as the region took the impetus from the positive close on Wall St, with Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) underpinned as exporters benefitted from JPY weakness. The benchmark Japanese index briefly broke above the 22,500 level as stocks coat-tailed on the rebound in USD/JPY, with Toshiba reprieved from yesterday’s slump to sit among the biggest gainers. ASX 200 (+0.3%) also traded with broad-based optimism across its sectors albeit to a lesser extent and Chinese markets completed the upbeat picture following another significant liquidity operation by the PBoC, with the Hang Seng (+1.5%) leading on continued gains in its largest weighted stock Tencent which recently became a member of the exclusive USD 500bln market-cap-club. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat throughout the session with demand subdued by the broad positive risk tone and a tepid longer-dated enhanced liquidity auction, although a mild uptick was seen in late trade as prices broke above 151.00. PBoC injected CNY 130bln in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 40bln in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln in 63-day reverse repos. Net of maturities, the injection was only CNY 10bn however. PBoC also set the CNY mid-point weaker at 6.6356 vs Prev. 6.6271. Elsewhere, the Japanese Government to cut 30 and 40 year JGB supply in FY 2018/2019. Top Japanese News; Top Fund Backs Tencent to Drive Hong Kong Index Even Higher China H Shares Jump to Two-Year High as Financial Firms Rally Richest Asian Banker Sees Once-in-Lifetime India Opportunity Turkey Lifts Bank-Funding Costs as Lira Weakens to All-Time Low European equities modestly higher this morning (Stoxx 600 +0.2%), with positive notes out from Goldman Sachs, who are overweight European automakers. Goldman said in a Europe strategy note that “deep value sectors” (autos, oil, and utilities) will help Stoxx Europe to return 12% in next 12 months. As a result, European automakers outperform led by VW for a second straight day, with the SXAP index advancing as much as 1.9%, best of 19 groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 benchmark (Volkswagen +3.8%, Porsche +2.7%, BMW +2%, Daimler +1.7%). Additionally, Imperial Brand shares rallied after their CEO change, as analysts speculate that this could increase the likelihood that the company will be taken over by Japan Tobacco. Airliner EasyJet is flying high this morning following strong financial results. Bunds are taking another look at 163.00+ levels having faded rallies above the big figure on several occasions recently. The bullish fundamentals and flow/positioning motives are well known and documented, but chart-wise market contacts note that support around 162.86 (rising trendline and Monday’s late Eurex base) held on the downside, prompting some intraday buying for a bounce to 163.06 resistance initially and then 163.16 (yesterday’s session peak) vs a high so far at 163.15. Beyond that, 163.22 needs to be breached to expose 163.40 and this month’s 163.63 peak. However, another retreat and failure to retain grasp of the 163.00 handle will bring 162.82 back into play as support (Monday’s actual intraday low), and on a break those short term longs not booking profit at 163.06 are expected to bail. Turning to Gilts, more upside also seen and a return to the 125-plus zone, at 125.29 for a 33 tick gain on the day vs 12 tick loss at one stage, before easing back slightly on larger than forecast UK PSNB shortfalls. Top European News Brexit-Hit Banks Said to Start Moving Staff Abroad in Early 2018 Paris, Amsterdam Brexit Winners as Coin Toss Assigns EU Agencies May Prepares New Brexit Offer After Talks With Ministers U.K. Budget Deficit Widens as Inflation Boosts Debt Costs Uniper Tells Shareholders to Reject Fortum’s Takeover Offer EasyJet Reaping Benefit of Ryanair Retreat as Winter Prices Gain In FX markets, price action has been relatively contained thus far. The USD index is firmer around the 94.000 handle in thin holiday-impacted trade, with the USD gaining ground vs most major counterparts on a generally more risk-on mood. EUR has been resilient in the face of Germany’s struggles to form a new Government and the threat of another election. EUR/USD continues to find support ahead of stops around 1.1720 and bids at 1.1700, with reported fixing demand in Asia propping the pair, but the 100 DMA around 1.1745-50 capping recovery gains. Elsewhere, AUD has rebounded from overnight lows post-RBA minutes, as Governor Lowe underlined that the next move in rates will be up, although the lead time to any tightening remains lengthy. Meanwhile, GBP was unreactive to the latest public borrowing data as markets look to see whether or not PM May will get the green-light for an enhanced divorce bill offer to the EU. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have continued to climb through the European session with energy related newsflow on the light-side as prices retrace some of the declines seen in the early stages of yesterday’s session. Energy markets are looking ahead to next week’s OPEC meeting, however, markets are firmly expecting an extension to existing production cuts in lieu of recent rhetoric from the cartel. In metals markets, gold only managed to nurse some of yesterday’s losses overnight as a broad positive risk tone kept safe-haven demand subdued. Copper maintained most of the prior session’s gains with prices supported by the risk appetite and amid gains in Chinese steel and iron ore prices on optimism for increased demand following the winter season. Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers will likely be the centre of attention again with Fed Chair Yellen due to speak in the evening as part of a series with former BoE governor Mervyn King, while the ECB’s Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt in the afternoon. Datawise, UK public sector net borrowing and CBI trends data for October and November are due, while in the US the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales data for October is due. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.2 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.4m, prior 5.39m 10am: Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.19%, prior 0.7% 6pm: Fed’s Yellen Speaks at Stern Business School DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap There wasn't much contagion yesterday after the surprise collapse in German coalition talks late on Sunday night. Over the last couple of years negative market reaction to political shocks has often been over before you can digest it fully. Examples being the Greek and Brexit referendums and the Trump election results. Although the German coalition talks collapsing is much lower key than these events, it was still interesting that the DAX was only negative for 1 hour 16mins and that the Euro had snapped back into positive territory 37 minutes earlier even if it did soften again as the day progressed closing -0.49% against the dollar. The DAX closed +0.50% (high to low had been as much as +1.23%) and the Stoxx 600 +0.67% (range 0.91%). Overall it’s hard to see what the solution is to the gridlock in Germany but it’s also hard to see it being that negative for markets other than at the margin. Mrs Merkel yesterday effectively ruled out a minority government and the SPD continue to rule out a return to a Grand Coalition so unless talks can be reignited, a snap election early next year seems increasingly likely. As an outsider not as familiar with the German election process as many of my readers I can't help wondering how a fresh election will help much with recent polls seemingly not changing that much from the September 24th election. However, perhaps the campaigning would persuade enough voters to change their mind that the coalition math might be easier. Unlikely but possible. The good news from our economists in Germany is that the political system means there's no power vacuum and thus no time pressure to progress things. This probably helped prevent the market reacting too negatively yesterday although it can’t be too positive at the margin for Brexit talks and for fresh Macron/ Merkel European initiatives in the near-term. For more on the technicalities and options open now see the note "Coalition talks collapsed - unchartered territory ahead" from our German economists yesterday. Overnight, the Fed’s Yellen has confirmed that she will be stepping down from the Board of Governors once Mr Powell is sworn into the office. Her vacancy will give President Trump a fourth spot to fill in the new Fed, including the Vice Chairman spot. Elsewhere, Trump has redesignated North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism and the Treasury department is expected to announce additional sanctions today. Notably, Secretary of State Tillerson “still hopes for diplomacy” with the State. We wonder whether North Korea will retaliate with some form of defiance after this so watch out for that. This morning in Asia, markets have followed the positive lead from the US. The Hang Seng (+1.30%), Nikkei (+0.93%), Kospi (+0.15%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.40%) are all up as we type. Turning to Brexit headlines, it seems that in addition to the stalemate on UK’s financial settlement to the EU, there are other unresolved issues before talks can move onto trade and a transition deal. Chief EU Brexit negotiator Barnier has noted that the Irish border will require a specific solution and it’s up to “those who wanted Brexit” to come up with those solutions. Elsewhere, he has warned “the legal consequence of Brexit is that the UK financial services providers lose their passport (rights to the EU bloc)”. Also press reports last night suggested that PM May has cabinet approval to double the settlement offer from the current EUR20bln. Moving onto central bankers’ commentaries now. The ECB’s Draghi reiterated that despite the sound economic recovery, “underlying inflation pressures are still subdued as labour market slack remains significant….(and that we) still need time to translate into dynamic wage growth”. On non-performing loans in the EU bloc, he cautioned that we need to “…work together to cope with this problem….but at the same time doesn’t create the destabilizing effects that people fear”. On Brexit, he noted it was difficult to properly analyse, mainly because “we don’t have yet a precise or even imprecise view of what the negotiating platform will be”. Notably, he said that the Brexit “transition can be managed in a smooth way…but it should be done without compromising over the integrity of the single market”, although “this is easier to be said than done”. Following on, BOE policy maker Mr Ramsden has warned that Brexit could put the economy in an “unusual” slow down for years. He noted “given the long horizon over which the effects of Brexit could play out, we’re likely to be on the flat part of the saucer for some time”. On his decision to dissent on the recent rate hike, he noted there may be more room for the economy to grow without price gains, noting “…one must pay close attention to any signs that above target inflation is feeding through to second-round effects in domestic costs…so far, that doesn’t seem to be the case”. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. US equities all strengthened, with both the S&P and Nasdaq up c0.1% and Dow up 0.31%. Within the S&P, telco (+0.97%) and financials stocks rebounded and led the gains, with partial offsets from health care and utilities names. European markets were all modestly higher despite the German political instability. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (+0.67%), DAX (+0.50%) and CAC (+0.40%) rose modestly, while the FTSE 100 was the relative underperformer (+0.12%). The modest risk on bias was evident in volatility measures, with the VIX down for the third consecutive day (-6.8% to 10.65) while the VSTOXX also fell -7.05% after spending only 43 minutes higher at the open. Over in government bonds, core bond yields were mixed but little changed (UST 10y: +2.3bp; Bunds +0.2bp; Gilts -0.3bp), while peripherals outperformed with Italy and Spanish yields down 3-4bp. Elsewhere, the flattening across the Treasury curve has continued with the 5s30s curve c3bp flatter to 68.8bp, marking a fresh 10 year low. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling gained 0.44% and 0.12% respectively, while Euro fell 0.49% following the aforementioned developments in Germany. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.58%, in part as investors await potential confirmation of production cuts in the upcoming OPEC meeting on 30th November. Elsewhere, precious metals weakened (Gold -1.20%;Silver -2.30%), with Gold down the most since late September, while other base metals were mixed (Copper +0.91%; Zinc -0.06%; Aluminium -1.44%). Away from the markets, DB’s China research team have published another note looking at China’s macro risks. They have noticed new signs of a tightening in fiscal and monetary policies over the past week. For example, on the fiscal front, the Ministry of Finance issued a document to tighten control over public private partnership projects. On monetary front, the government released draft guidelines on the asset management sector, which from a macro perspective could structurally constrain financial leverage and further tighten credit growth. Overall, the team believes these new measures are positive for China in the long term, but in the next 6 months they will likely cause the economy to slow. Elsewhere the latest ECB holdings were released yesterday. Net CSPP purchases last week was €2.33bn and Net PSPP purchases €12.27bn. This left the CSPP/PSPP ratio at 19.0% last week (15.4% over the last 4 weeks vs. 11.5% before QE was trimmed in April 2017). Although we don’t think CSPP will be trimmed much after the January taper last week’s buying seemed anomalous in part as issuance was high over the period and the ECB may have taken advantage of this, particularly as the upcoming holiday season might bring liquidity challenges later on. Moving to the limited macro data releases from yesterday. In the US, the October Conference board leading index was above expectations at 1.2% mom (vs. 0.8% expected) and 5.2% yoy - the highest since May 2015. In Germany, the October PPI was in line at 0.3% mom and 2.7% yoy. In Japan, we saw a trade surplus of JPY323bn in October, which was modestly larger than expected. Looking at the day ahead, central bank speakers will likely be the centre of attention again with Fed Chair Yellen due to speak late in the evening as part of a series with former BoE governor Mervyn King, while the ECB’s Coeure chairs a panel in Frankfurt in the afternoon. Datawise, UK public sector net borrowing and CBI trends data for October and November are due, while in the US the Chicago Fed national activity index and existing home sales data for October is due.
Основные индексы Азиатско-тихоокеанского региона закрылись в целом выше, так как рост прибыли на Wall Street и высокие экономические данные из Германии и США помогли инвесторам избавиться от новых опасений по поводу политической неопределенности в Германии. Японские акции заметно выросли, так как доллар по-прежнему поддерживался ростом доходности облигаций США. Автопроизводители опубликовали значительную прибыль; акции Honda Motor подорожали на 0,7%, а Toyota Motor - на 1,4%. Производитель роботов Fanuc увеличил капитализацию на 1,8%, а кредитор Mitsubishi UFJ Financial - на 1,2%. Производитель оборонного оборудования Ishikawa Seisakusho добавил 9,3%, а Howa Machinery - 17,4% стоимости акций после того, как президент США Дональд Трамп назвал Северную Корею государственным спонсором терроризма. Австралийские акции выросли незначительно, поскольку более сильные фьючерсы на сталь в Китае помогли увеличить стоимость акций горнорудных компаний и повысить доходность облигаций. Акции ANZ, Westpac, BHP Billiton и Rio Tinto выросли в цене на 0,2% и 0,4%. Рыночная стоимость Crown Resorts увеличилась на 1,2% после объявления об изменении в руководстве компании. Отдельно, протоколы ноябрьского заседания Резервного банка Австралии показали, что руководство центробанка по-прежнему обеспокоено медленным ростом заработной платы и инфляцией. NIKKEI 22416.48 +154.72 +0.70% SHANGHAI 3411.09 +18.69 +0.55% HSI 29818.07 +557.76 +1.91% ASX 200 5963.52 +17.85 +0.30% KOSPI 2530.70 +3.03 +0.12% NZ50 8088.48 -1.32 -0.02% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Во вторник, 21 ноября, азиатские фондовые индексы продемонстрировали преимущественно положительную динамику по итогам сессии благодаря росту акций автомобильного сектора, а также бумаг, относящихся к IT-сектору. Из макроэкономической статистики в Японии был опубликован индекс деловой активности во всех отраслях, который в сентябре упал на 0,5%, тогда как аналитики прогнозировали снижение показателя на 0,4%. Также сегодня был опубликован протокол заседания Резервного банка Австралии, в котором было отмечено, что текущая денежно-кредитная политика полностью соответствует целям по темпам роста ВВП и уровню инфляции. Помимо этого, представители регулятора сообщили, что дальнейший рост курса австралийского доллара замедлит темпы роста инфляции. Японский индекс Nikkei 225 подскочил на 0,73%, китайский Shanghai Composite подрос на 0,53%, гонконгский Hang Seng позеленел на 1,91%, южнокорейский KOSPI вырос на 0,12%, а австралийский ASX 200 увеличился на 0,30%.
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По итогам торгов понедельника США индекс Dow Jones вырос на 0,31%, S&P – на 0,13%, Nasdaq – на 0,12%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 23430,33 пункта, S&P – 2582,14 пункта, Nasdaq – 6790,71 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND вырос на 1,28% и составил 73 437,28 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 прибавил 0,19% и закрылся на уровне 7394,8 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 вырос на 0,44% и закрылся на уровне 5 342,83 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX вырос на 0,64% и к закрытию составил 13 077,41 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei поднялось к настоящему времени на 0,86% и составило 22 453,76 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 вырос на 1,82% и находится на уровне 4 218,747 пункта. Индекс фондовой биржи Гонконга HANG SENG поднялся на 1,36% и находится на уровне 29 658,9 пункта.
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei -135.04 22261.76 -0.60% TOPIX -4.11 1759.65 -0.23% Hang Seng +61.27 29260.31 +0.21% CSI 300 +22.98 4143.83 +0.56% Euro Stoxx 50 +13.95 3561.41 +0.39% FTSE 100 +8.78 7389.46 +0.12% DAX +64.93 13058.66 +0.50% CAC 40 +21.28 5340.45 +0.40% DJIA +72.09 23430.33 +0.31% S&P 500 +3.29 2582.14 +0.13% NASDAQ +7.92 6790.72 +0.12% S&P/TSX +5.83 16004.40 +0.04% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,578.25 (+0.10%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.13% до уровня 6,321.25. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют повышение. Nikkei 22,261.76 -135.04 -0.60% Hang Seng 29,260.31 +61.27 +0.21% Shanghai 3,393.02 +10.12 +0.30% S&P/ASX 5,945.67 -11.58 -0.19% FTSE 7,388.28 +7.60 +0.10% CAC 5,332.88 +13.71 +0.26% DAX 13,028.08 +34.35 +0.26% Январские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $56.37 за баррель (-0.60%) Золото торгуется по $1,287.90 за унцию (-0.66%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения в первый день новой недели, которая будет укороченной ввиду празднования Дня благодарения. В фокусе внимания участников рынка находятся сообщения о ситуации с формированием немецкого правительства. Напомним, сегодня утром поступили сообщения о провале переговоров по формированию правящей коалиции в Германии, что поставило под угрозу четвертый срок правления нынешнего канцлера Ангелы Меркель. На этой неделе публикации макроэкономических данных высокой степени важности не запланированы и, как ожидается, объемы торгов будут с каждым днем все больше сокращаться по мере приближения выходного: в четверг в США будут праздновать День благодарения. Уолл-стрит зафиксировал снижение по итогам предыдущей недели, так как инвесторы беспокоились о перспективах плана налоговой реформы республиканцев. На прошлой неделе Палата представителей США одобрила свою версию налогового законопроекта, тогда как Сенат, как ожидается, проголосует за свою версию законопроекта после Дня благодарения. Стоит отметить, что версии налоговой реформы Сената и Палаты представителей существенно отличаются. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить новость о том, что компания Alibaba (BABA; +1.3%) намерена инвестировать $2.87 млрд. в Art Retail Group, крупнейшего оператора гипермаркетов в Китае. На этом фоне акции Wal-Mart снизились на 1%. Дополнительное давление на WMT оказало сообщение о снижении рейтинга акций компании аналитиками Goldman до уровня Neutral с Buy. Сезон корпоративной отчетности добегает конца: почти 95% компаний S&P 500 уже представили свои результаты по итогам работы в третьем квартале. Тем не менее, все еще осталось несколько значимых эмитентов, которым предстоит обнародовать свои финрезультаты на этой неделе, среди которых Urban Outfitters (URBN), Lowe's (LOW), Dollar Tree (DLTR), HP (HPQ), Salesforce (CRM), GameStop ( GME) и Deere (DE).Источник: FxTeam
Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom and commodity prices weighed on Europe's stocks over last week.
US index futures are unchanged, having recovered virtually all overnight session losses alongside the EURUSD following Merkel's failure to form a government, while European shares rise despite Angela Merkel's failure to form a new government. In the span of just hours, the goalseeked "hot take" consensus was that Germany’s collapsed coalition talks aren’t expected be a deal breaker for European equities due to the "strength of the German economy." As we pointed out earlier, the euro reversed losses as the London session unwound a sell-off in Asian time exacerbated by thin liquidity, while early strength in bunds was also faded. According to Citi, there were 3 possible reasons for the brief dip and subsequent strong rebound: 1. Merkel's failure was already discounted; 2. The market was positioned short ahead of the announcement; 3. There is too little clarity to trade. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index shed gains and stood little changed as the pound found a steady bid amid optimism that the U.K. is willing to move toward EU demands on a Brexit divorce bill. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose as Germany’s DAX rebounded from a seven-week low; the Stoxx 600 rose 0.3% while Germany’s benchmark DAX Index climbed 0.2%; DAX futures earlier were down nearly -1%, on concerns surrounding the failed coalition talks in the country. Among European stocks, Automakers and health-care shares outperform after Volkswagen raised sales forecasts, while insurers are worst decliners on the European gauge. European equity traders and analysts say that the political uncertainty in Germany will likely not serve as a trigger for a broader market correction. Still, some were concerned: “You can imagine this will be bearish for the euro, at least in the tactical near-term, while the market comes to grips with what’s going on and will take a look at what her options are,” Kay Van-Petersen, global macro strategist at Saxo Capital Market, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “I’m fairly confident though that she’ll be able to come up with a different coalition at some point over the next few weeks.” Asia began the week subdued following the losses on Wall St. last Friday and with focus on political uncertainty after Trump campaigners were subpoenaed and German coalition talks broke down. Japanese sentiment was dampened by a firmer JPY and a miss on trade data. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were initially negative with underperformance in the mainland as Shenzhen stocks resumed Friday’s sell off and amid reports that China tightened asset management rules to curb risky lending. However, prices then recovered heading into the close as markets took a closer look at plans to curb shadow banking. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful with prices flat, as demand from the dampened risk appetite in the region was counterbalanced by the absence of a BoJ Rinban announcement. The recent pause in the relentless global rally which only cost central banks $2 trillion in liquidity in 2017 comes as investors gauge whether there are sufficient drivers to continue the march to historic highs. Solid earnings are offset by record valuations in virtually all markets, meanwhile red warning signs are being issued by the flattening U.S. yield curve: on Friday, the 2s10s again hit the tightest level in a decade, adding to concern about the pace of future economic growth. On the domestic agenda where recent euphoria was boosted by the momentum of GOP tax reform, over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he can’t guarantee Congress would preserve tax cuts (let Congress pass them first before worrying about preserving them), while Senator Susan Collins said the Senate tax plan passed by Committee needs work. In international geopolitics, German coalition talks broke down after FDP pulled out of discussions with German Chancellor Merkel's conservatives due to unrealistic differences. S&P affirmed Switzerland at AAA; Outlook Stable and affirmed Netherlands at AAA; Outlook Stable. UK Chancellor Hammond stated that UK is on the brink of serious progress in Brexit discussions, while he also stated the UK will finally begin to see a reduction in public debt and that they will seek to curb health service measures in a balanced way. Reports further suggested that Hammond has put PM May under pressure to promise more money for the Brexit “divorce bill” by suggesting an improved offer will be made to Brussels within three weeks; an offer that the Times believe will be unveiled today. The dollar was steady, while West Texas oil held above $56 a barrel. Meanwhile, pound and gilts traders will focus on a potential downgrade to the U.K. growth outlook this week and the government’s efforts toward agreeing a Brexit divorce bill. Sterling was boosted on Monday by reports that the U.K. was preparing to make an enhanced divorce bill offer to the EU ahead of crucial talks starting next month. South Korea spy agency says North Korea can conduct nuke test at anytime, although there is no sign of an imminent test according to reports in Yonhap, reports also suggest that the North conducted engine tests. This week may see lower than normal volumes due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting are due Tuesday, while those from the European Central Bank’s October meeting due out on Thursday could show dissent in the discussion about tapering. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives a talk at New York University. Later in the week, reports on sales of previously owned homes and durable goods orders for October are due in the U.S. The minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting are out on Wednesday. Market participants will gauge Fed officials’ eagerness to boost the benchmark interest rate in December, which is widely expected by the market. On Wednesday, the U.K. announces its budget Wednesday; that could see a significant economic downgrade amid a continued impasse in its negotiations with the EU on Brexit. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk German concerns short - lived with EUR paring back losses seen in the wake of coalition talks breaking down Weekend press reports in the UK suggest that UK PM May could be on the cusp of promising more money to the EU in order settle the "Brexit Bill" Looking ahead, highlights include potential comments from ECB’s Lautenschlaeger, Draghi, Constancio and BoE’s Ramsden Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,572.25 MSCI Asia down 0.07% to 170.29 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.09% to 559.78 Nikkei down 0.6% to 22,261.76 Topix down 0.2% to 1,759.65 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 29,260.31 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,392.40 Sensex up 0.2% to 33,396.87 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,945.67 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,527.67 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.01% to 383.85 German 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 0.365% Euro up 0.08% to $1.1799 Italian 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.57% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.547% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $62.46/bbl Gold spot down 0.03% to $1,292.09 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.05% to 93.61 Top Overnight news German Chancellor Angela Merkel declared failure in her bid to form a new government, throwing the future of Europe’s longest- serving leader into doubt and potentially pointing toward new elections Possibilities now include setting up a minority government headed by her Christian Democratic-led bloc or asking President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to order a national election just months after the last one in September Special Counsel Robert Mueller directed the Justice Department to turn over a broad array of documents, ABC reports; Mueller’s investigators seek emails related to firing of FBI Director James Comey and the decision of Attorney General Jeff Sessions to recuse himself from the entire matter U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he doesn’t know whether Congress would extend individual tax cuts that would expire after 2025 in current tax proposal; White House chief economist Kevin Hassett argues that the tax overhaul will boost productivity Chile’s presidential election is heading for a hotly contested second round after billionaire Sebastian Pinera took a smaller-than-expected lead in Sunday’s vote The value of Japan’s exports rose 14% y/y (forecast +15.7%) in Oct.; imports increased 18.9% (forecast +20.2%); the trade surplus was 285.4b yen, less than the forecast of 330 billion yen After nine years, two presidential decisions, multiple lawsuits and environmental protests, TransCanada Corp. is about to learn whether it will receive the final state permit needed to build the Keystone XL oil pipeline The Republican tax-overhaul effort is in for a marathon debate on the Senate floor at the end of this month, with dozens of doomed Democratic amendments. But the real action will be elsewhere, behind closed doors Global investment banking revenues may decline 9 percent this quarter on low volatility and a selloff of high-yield debt, analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Marvell Technology Group Ltd., a chipmaker looking to build itself a future outside of a declining area of the market, agreed to buy Cavium Inc. for about $6 billion President Robert Mugabe shocked Zimbabwe on Sunday night with a televised address that failed to announce his highly anticipated resignation, a dramatic twist that means the 93-year-old may face immediate impeachment hearings The U.K. could be about to improve its financial offer to the European Union ahead of a crucial meeting of the bloc’s leaders in December HNA CEO Casts Doubts on SkyBridge Deal Completion, WSJ Says Novomet Purchase by Halliburton Said to Be Delayed: Kommersant U.S. Businesswoman Said to Bid for Weinstein Co.: WSJ Some Chrysler Pacifica Owners Complain of Engine Issues: NYT ProSieben Is ‘Obvious’ M&A Target, Possibly for NBC: Liberum Cellcom in Talks With Partner Comm to Deploy Fiber Network Eurocastle Reports NPL Transaction, Reschedules Results Release Goldman CEO Sees Frankfurt, Paris As His Bank’s EU Hubs: Figaro Asia began the week subdued following the losses on Wall St. last Friday and with focus on political uncertainty after Trump campaigners were subpoenaed and German coalition talks broke down. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) were in the red although recent strength across commodities helped stem losses in Australia, while Japanese sentiment was dampened by a firmer JPY and a miss on trade data. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) were initially negative with underperformance in the mainland as Shenzhen stocks resumed Friday’s sell off and amid reports that China tightened asset management rules to curb risky lending. However, prices then recovered heading into the close. Finally, 10yr JGBs were uneventful with prices flat, as demand from the dampened risk appetite in the region was counterbalanced by the absence of a BoJ Rinban announcement. PBoC injected CNY 70bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bln via 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6271 (Prev. 6.6277). Chinese Property Prices (Oct) Y/Y 5.4% (Prev. 6.3%). Chinese Property Prices rose M/M in 50 out of 70 cities (Prev. 44) and rose Y/Y in 60 out of 70 cities (Prev. 67). Japanese Exports (Oct) Y/Y 14.0% vs. Exp. 15.8% (Prev. 14.1%) Japanese Imports (Oct) Y/Y 18.9% vs. Exp. 20.2% (Prev. 12.0%) Top Asian News Soros’ Wang Said to Leave to Start Hedge Fund in Hong Kong Thailand’s Economic Growth Beats Forecasts as Exports Rise Barcelo Makes Offer for NH in Bid to Create Spanish Hotel Giant Zarrab Case Aims to Implicate Turkish Leaders, Erdogan Aide Says Alibaba Bets $2.9 Billion It Can Take on Wal-Mart in China Asia Shares Fall as Investors Lock in Gain Amid U.S. Tax Wrangle Toshiba’s Share Sale Plan Cheers Bond Market as Stocks Fall European bourses have had a mixed start for the week, with the EuroStoxx 50 relatively flat amid the collapse of German government coalition talks, while on the corporate front, German Utilities RWE and Innogy are rising over divestiture speculation. Roche are among the best performing stocks this morning after the drugmaker announced a double dose of trial wins. No further political news or fundamental inputs to spark movement, but Bunds are back in the black and it looks like short term or intraday chart levels are impacting. Contacts were flagging 162.82 on the downside and that just held in to keep sellstops intact and the 10 year German bond has subsequently bounced towards 163.00 again. Back to the Government coalition impasse, the President will address the nation at 13.30GMT and could call another election given the failure of talks and Chancellor Merkel to form a new regime, but there is a train of thought that he might make a last ditch effort to get the parties back around the table. Meanwhile, Gilts continue to track moves elsewhere awaiting more concrete Brexit developments and Wednesday’s Budget, ticking back up to 124.65 from a 124.53 low. US Treasuries maintaining a firmer bias, and with the long bond outperforming yet again – so even more flattening. Top European News Merkel’s Attempt to Form a New German Government Collapses German Liberals Would Support a Merkel Minority Government: Bild Michael Spencer’s NEX Group Picks Amsterdam as Post- Brexit Base Vestas Shares Fall; Goldman Sees Margin Pressure in 2018 Jana Novotna, Former Wimbledon Champion, Dies at 49 Akbank’s Rota Is Said to Become Bank Audi’s Turkey Unit CEO In FX, the EUR roundtriped as Germany’s FDP walks out of talks to form a 4-party Jamaican coalition after a month of negotiations, citing irretrievable differences. Chancellor Merkel must now inform the President of the situation and the risk is a snap election and failure to secure a 4th term in office. EUR/USD slumped to a 1.1723 base before recovering, with bids touted at 1.1710, while EUR/GBP held key support at 0.8871 (21 DMA) despite filling bids at 0.8875 before rebounding towards 0.8900. GBP: A firmer tone independent of the EUR’s travails on latest reports suggesting material progress in Brexit negotiations in the offing, while UK Chancellor Hammond is apparently encouraging PM May to up her divorce settlement offer to the EU. Cable back up near 1.3250. Benefiting from broad risk-off sentiment, with USD/JPY briefly/marginally below 112.00, but now pivoting the big figure and likely to be eyeing a spread of option expiries in nearby proximity (300 mn at 111.90, 901 mn at 112.00, 2.3 bn at 112.30 and 1 bn from 112.50-60). In commodities, price action WTI and Brent has been relatively tepid with investors turning their attention to the bi-annual OPEC meeting, in which it is expect that the cartel will extend production cuts to cover the whole of next year. On Friday, the latest Baker Hughes showed that rig counts were unchanged in week to November 17th. WTI slightly off best levels having run into resistance just ahead of USD 57. US Event Calendar 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.7%, prior -0.2% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The most interesting thing to get your teeth stuck in to this week is likely to be the turkey on Thankgiving on Thursday. As such it'll likely be a quietish week unless we see a renewed bout of the Wednesday to Wednesday sell-off of last week. Things calmed down from the lows during Wednesday's session even if we closed out the week on Friday with a softer session for equities. That said, things have already got to an interesting start as talks to form the next coalition German government have failed after a 12 hour negotiation session ended at around midnight last night, with the pro-market FDP walking out citing large differences with the environmentalist Green party. The head of the FDP Mr Lindner noted “it’s better not to govern than to govern badly”. If no compromise is eventually found, Germany may enter into unchartered territory, potentially involving a new election or even a minority led government. The Euro is down c0.5% this morning. This morning in Asia, markets are trading modestly lower. The Nikkei (-0.45%), Kospi (-0.01%) and Hang Seng (-0.07%) are weaker, while Chinese bourses have pared back bigger losses to be down c0.7% as we type, with the underperformance in part due to Chinese regulators announcing new measures to regulate asset management products from June 2019. The draft measures include: i) an end to short-term investment products with (implicit) guaranteed fixed rates of return and ii) uniform guidance for banks, trust, insurers and brokerages. Elsewhere, over the weekend, Reuters noted Chinese home prices rose in 50 of 70 cities in October (vs. 44 cities previous). The average price rise was stronger for the month at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2% previous), but annual growth still slowed to 5.4% yoy (vs. 6.3% previous). Back to the days ahead, in this holiday shortened week, the highlights will likely be the EU Foreign and European affairs ministers discussing Brexit today (with a Barnier briefing after), the UK budget on Wednesday (look out for looser fiscal policy), the flash European PMIs on Thursday and the first store sales numbers coming through on 'Black Friday' as we close out the week. These numbers are perhaps less relevant than they used to be as internet shopping increases but it’s always a focal point nonetheless. Turning to US tax reforms, where a step change does not seem likely until the revised tax package goes to a full Senate chamber vote, potentially in the week after Thanksgiving (week from 27th Nov.). Before then, there was more rhetoric over the weekend. Republican Senator Collins said the tax package “needs work” and “want to see changes in that bill”, although she has not reached a conclusion on whether to vote for the current plans or not. One of the issues is the new provision to remove the individual mandate of the Obamacare care, which she noted was a “problem” and that “I don’t think that provision should be in the bill”. In response, Director of the Office of Management and budget Mr Mulvaney noted that the White House is “ok” in removing the mandate if it was an impediment to passing the Senate tax bill, although White House legislative Director Mr Short said “we like the fact that the Senate has included it”. As a reminder, the Republicans need >50 votes to pass the Senate bill and currently control 52 of the 100 seats in the Chamber. Moving onto Brexit, there appears to be more signs that the UK may be willing to concede to an improved Brexit settlement offer to kick start the Brexit talks. The FT has reported that PM May could get cabinet approval today to as much as double her prior settlement offer of EUR$20bln. Elsewhere, Chancellor Hammond noted “we’ve always been clear it won’t be easy to work out that number, but whatever is due, we will pay” and that “we will make our proposals to the EU in time for the council (meeting in c3 weeks). I’m sure about that”. On the other side, the EC President Tusk was firm when he met with PM May last Friday, as he noted “I made it clear to PM May that this progress needs to happen at the beginning of December at the latest” and that “if there is no sufficient progress, I will not be in a position to propose new guidelines on transition (and trade talks)”. Elsewhere, in a preview to the UK budget this week, Chancellor Hammond has noted the government will announce a plan to increase house building by c40% to 300k new homes being built each year. Now quickly recapping market performance on Friday. Ahead of the quieter Thanksgiving week, US bourses weakened. The S&P (-0.26%), Dow (-0.43%) and Nasdaq (-0.15%) all down modestly. Within the S&P, modest gains in the telco and discretionary consumer sectors were more than offset by losses from utilities and tech stocks. European markets also trended lower, with Stoxx 600 (-0.29%), DAX (-0.41%) and FTSE (-0.08%) all down slightly. Over in government bonds, core yields were 1-3bp lower (UST 10y -3.2bp; Bunds -1.6bp; Gilts -1.4bp) while peripherals were little changed. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index weakened 0.29% while Sterling and the Euro gained 0.15% and 0.17% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil rose 2.56% following Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its willingness to extend oil cuts at the November 30 OPEC meeting. Elsewhere, precious metals gained c1% (Gold +1.08%; Silver +1.29%) and other base metals also advanced slightly (Copper +0.13%; Zinc 1.06%; Aluminium flat). Now onto a fascinating story of our times namely Bitcoin. The crypto currency has not only recovered from recent losses, it has now moved to a fresh all-time high of cUS$8,007 a piece this morning. To put this in context, Bitcoin is up c23% over the last week and up 136% since its recent lows back in mid-September. Going back further, it is up c8.4x YTD and up 679x from 5 years ago. Away from the markets now and onto central bankers’ commentaries back on Friday. The ECB’s Draghi noted that “as the labour market tightens and uncertainty falls, the relationship between slack and wage growth should begin reasserting itself. But we have to remain patient.” Elsewhere, the ECB’s Weidmann echoed those sentiments, noting “domestic price pressure will gradually increase in keeping with a path towards our definition of price stability”. Turning to Catalonia, the latest opinion poll by GAD3 suggests voter participation could be a record high of 82% for the upcoming regional election on 21st December but the pro-independence coalition may only win 66-69 of the seats, falling short of a clear majority which requires 68 seats. Staying with polls, the latest Ifop poll suggest France President Macron’s popularity has improved 4ppt to 46% - the highest in four months, in part as Bloomberg noted voters are crediting their President with keeping some of his campaign promises. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the November Kansas Fed manufacturing activity was below expectations at 16 (vs. 21), but is still reasonably solid. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate of 4Q GDP growth ended the week at 3.4% (+0.2pps following the strong IP data). The October housing starts were above expectations at 13.7% mom (vs. 5.6% expected), with increases seen in all major regions with the exception of the West. Housing permits were slightly lower at 1,250k (vs. 1,297k expected). Elsewhere, 3Q mortgage delinquencies rose from the post-GFC low in 2Q to 4.88% (vs. 4.24% previous), while foreclosure rate continues to trend down, now to a new post-GFC low of 1.23%. In the Eurozone, the September current account surplus widened to 37.8bln (vs. 33.3bln previous). Elsewhere, Canada’s headline October inflation measure was in line at 0.1% mom and 1.4% yoy, while the core median reading was slightly lower at 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.8% previous).
Основные индексы Азиатско-тихоокеанского региона закрылись разнонаправленно. Неопределенность с налоговой реформой в США и политический тупик в Германии снизили аппетит инвесторов к риску и способствовали росту спроса на активы убежища. Китайский фондовый рынок закрылся в зеленой зоне после негативного начала торгов. Банки начали движение вперед после того, как Пекин решил перейти к более рисковому управлению активами. Японские акции упали по мере укрепления курса иены, а экономические данные показали, что рост экспорта Японии неожиданно ослабел в октябре. Акции Nomura Holdings, Tokyo Electron и Advantest Corp подешевели на -1-3%. Бумаги Toshiba Corp упали в цене на -5,8%. Рыночная стоимость Toyota Motor увеличилась на 0,2%, а Suzuki Motor Corp - на 0,7% после того, как они объявили о намерении продать электромобили в Индию. NIKKEI 22396.80 +45.68 +0.20% SHANGHAI 3382.34 -16.91 -0.50% HSI 29199.04 +180.28 +0.62% ASX 200 5957.25 +13.74 +0.23% KOSPI 2533.99 -0.80 -0.03% NZ50 8061.98 +27.28 +0.34% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Евро развернулся после первоначального снижения, так как инвесторы пришли к выводу, что провал Меркель в формировании коалиции вряд ли сильно ударит по экономике региона. Немецкие акции продолжали снижаться вместе с другими европейскими. Доллар демонстрировал относительно неизменную динамику, трежерис подросли. Индекс Stoxx Europe 600 снижался, немецкий DAX коснулся минимума за 7 недель, единая валюта подросла. Ранее китайские акции развернулись после снижения, так как рынки более пристально рассмотрели планы по борьбе с теневым банковским сектором. В США спрэд между доходностью двухлеток и десятилеток вновь оказался наиболее узким за последнее десятилетие, что усилило опасения в отношении темпов будущего роста экономики. Фунт укреплялся после новостей о том, что Британия может увеличить размер своих отступных ЕС перед важной встречей лидеров в декабре. Индекс Stoxx Europe 600 снизился менее чем на 0.05%. Британский FTSE 100 снизился 0.4% до минимума более чем за 7 недель. Немецкий DAX снизился на 0.2% до минимума почти за 4 недель. Японский Nikkei 225 снизился на 0.6%. Индекс Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона MSCI вырос на 0.1% до максимума более чем за 6 лет. Фьючерсы S&P 500 снизился 0.2% до 2,572.00. Доходность десятилеток снизилась на 1 базисный пункт до 2.34%. Euro Shrugs Off German Impasse as Stocks Struggle, Bloomberg, Nov 20Источник: FxTeam
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По итогам торгов пятницы в США индекс Dow Jones снизился на 0,43%, S&P - на 0,26%, Nasdaq упал на 0,15%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 23 358,24 пункта, S&P – 2 578,85 пункта, Nasdaq – 6782,79 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND по итогам дня вырос на 1,28%, достигнув 73 437,28 пункта. Индекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 потерял 0,08% и закрылся на уровне 7 380,68 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 просел на 0,32% и закрылся на уровне 5 319,17 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX ослаб на 0,41% и к закрытию составил 12 993,73 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei опустилось к настоящему времени на 0,5% и составило 22 282,72 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 опустился на 0,91% и находится на уровне 4 083,341 пункта.
Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона в целом снижаются, так как рост японского экспорта в октябре неожиданно ослабел, а политический тупик в Германии снизил аппетит инвесторов к риску и помог увеличить спрос на активы в убежище. Цены на золото упали в преддверии праздника Дня благодарения на этой неделе, в то время как цены на нефть торгуются неоднозначно после восхождения более чем на 2% в пятницу. Евро достиг двухмесячного минимума по сравнению с иеной после того, как усилия германского канцлера Ангелы Меркель по формированию трехстороннего коалиционного правительства потерпели неудачу. Индекс Nikkei в Японии снизился на фоне более сильной коррекции иены. Также среди автопроизводителей акции упали в цене после сообщений о том, что Toyota Motor и Suzuki Motor Corp формируют связь для продажи электромобилей в Индии. Toshiba Corp снизила капитализацию на -4,5% на фоне беспокойства по поводу ослабления акций. Австралийские акции были незначительно ниже на фоне неопределенности в отношении планов по налоговой реформе в США. Индекс Новой Зеландии S & P / NZX-50 вырос. Молочная компания A2 Milk снизила капитализацию на -1,3% после получения прибыли в течений трех дней подряд. NIKKEI 22258.17 -138.63 -0.62% SHANGHAI 3355.58 -27.32 -0.81% HSI 29151.10 -47.94 -0.16% ASX 200 5951.50 -5.75 -0.10% KOSPI 2531.61 -2.38 -0.09% NZ50 8089.80 +27.82 +0.34% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
(индекс/цена закрытия/изменение, пункты/изменение, %) Nikkei +45.68 22396.80 +0.20% TOPIX +2.05 1763.76 +0.12% Hang Seng +180.28 29199.04 +0.62% CSI 300 +15.84 4120.85 +0.39% Euro Stoxx 50 -17.34 3547.46 -0.49% FTSE 100 -6.26 7380.68 -0.08% DAX -53.49 12993.73 -0.41% CAC 40 -17.22 5319.17 -0.32% DJIA -100.12 23358.24 -0.43% S&P 500 -6.79 2578.85 -0.26% NASDAQ -10.50 6782.79 -0.15% S&P/TSX +63.20 15998.57 +0.40% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
On 31 October 2017, we discussed the announcement that the CME Group was responding to client interest and launching a Bitcoin Futures contract before the end of this year. CME stated that the contract would be cash settled based on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference rate, a once-a-day reference rate of the US dollar Bitcoin price at 4.00pm London time. In the run-up to the launch of the futures contract, the Financial Times has written a piece on the likely impact of futures trading on the Bitcoin price. The title of the piece makes the FT’s view clear, “Prepare to bet against bitcoin as it becomes civilised”. We disagree with using the word “civilised” in this context (see below), but here is the FT’s take. In recent years, bitcoin has been the wild west of the financial world. Now, however, it is being civilised — a touch. In the coming weeks, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to start listing bitcoin futures, with a centralised clearing mechanism. Cboe Global Markets may follow suit. That will enable investors to bet on the coin’s future value without actually holding it — just as investors can use the Chicago exchange to bet on hog prices, say, without ever handling a pig. To its credit, the FT reflects the concerns from some CME participants that there is insufficient regulatory oversight and Bitcoin’s stratospheric vol could lead to significant losses for some traders. Is this a good idea? Some of the CME’s members do not think so. This week Interactive Brokers, an important clearing firm in the exchange, took the extraordinary step of using a newspaper advertisement to ask for more regulatory oversight. It fears that bitcoin is potentially so volatile that these futures will create huge losses for traders, which might then undermine the health of the CME and hurt other brokers, given its part-mutualised structure. The CME — unsurprisingly — dismisses this as poppycock: it argues that any risks will be contained by rules that allow traders to charge more so as to generate fat margins (of about 30 per cent) and thus absorb losses, and by circuit breakers that would stop a trade in the event of wild price swings. Our suspicion is that CME Group has seen the volume of Bitcoin trading and is determined to get its “cut”, whether or not some of its members take some big hits or not. It can deal with those issues if or when they occur. Anyway, the FT moves on to the more interesting subject of the impact on Bitcoin’s price. We should note that when the futures contract was announced the price surged more than $100 to a then all-time high of $645. But while the regulatory debate bubbles on, there is a more immediate question facing investors: bitcoin prices. Until now, it has been an article of faith among bitcoin evangelists that if — or when — the currency became more “civilised”, this will boost the price. After all, the argument goes, assimilating bitcoin into the mainstream investment world should boost its appeal and demand, making it more valuable. As the FT alludes to in the articles title, it expects the Bitcoin price to fall. It is highly likely there will be an opposite effect. Until now, investors have not had an easy way to bet against bitcoin — the only “short” was to sell coins. But the CME futures contract will let investors place those negative bets. You do not need to be a conspiracy theorist to imagine that some bitcoin cynics will be doing just that. To support its case, the FT cites the example of Japan launching equity derivatives in 1989, just before the bubble burst. Think, for example, about Japan. Before the mid-1980s, its stock market seemed to exist on a planet of its own, subject to its own valuation rules. But when Japanese equity derivative contracts were launched, and then integrated within the wider global market system as a result of financial reform, that sense of “otherness” broke down. The change in how Japan was seen through a comparative investment lens was not the only reason for the 1990 Nikkei crash, but it contributed. We have a slight problem with using this as an analogy for Bitcoin. Firstly, an ultra-hawkish BOJ-governor was nominated in mid-1989 who announced his intention to crackdown on house price inflation and the shadow banking system which was facilitating much of the leverage. Secondly, all bubbles burst and Japan’s was extreme. For example, depending on whether you use the highest per square metre property deal in the Ginza district, or one in the Chiyoda district, the land underneath the Imperial Palace was valued between $852 billion and $5.1 trillion at the time. Futures trading, we would suggest, played a tiny role. The FT cites the launch of trading in the ABX Index prior to the sub-prime crisis, as another example. So too with US mortgages. Until 2005 or so, outsiders could not easily assess or price the risks of America’s subprime mortgages: mortgage-backed bond prices were opaque, and the only way to short the market was to sell bonds. But when mortgage derivatives, such as the ABX index, were launched, it suddenly became easy to make negative bets. Then, the ABX index was published in newspapers, such as the Financial Times, in 2007, creating a visible barometer of sentiment. That helped a sense of panic to feed on itself after 2008. Once again, we would suggest the FT is confusing the impact of derivatives with an inevitable reversion of market price of an asset in a bubble as expectations regarding the outlook changed. In the case of sub-prime, housing prices in the US had never fallen, then they did, the AAA-ratings of the bonds were manifestly incorrect and the dramatically overpriced sub-prime bonds were pledged as collateral in all manner of other risky, leveraged trades. From our perspective, the impact of the futures launch is difficult to gauge as it depends on the interaction of two opposing forces. Firstly, as cryptocurrencies gradually become accepted as an asset class, more institutional money is likely to enter the sector and holding long futures positions is one way to do it. Secondly, as the article notes, Bitcoin futures will be settled in cash, which means there is potential for the volume of futures trading to vastly outweigh the buying and selling of “actual” Bitcoins. If this occurs, then the “tail can wag the dog” as price discovery is dominated by futures trading. This permits all manner of market abuse via naked short selling by investors, major banks and any “official” players who deem it necessary to manipulate the Bitcoin price. For this reason, we don’t agree that adding a futures contract will necessarily “civilise” Bitcoin, indeed, it might have the opposite effect. The second scenario precisely describes the state of the “gold” market today. According to the Reserve Bank of India’s estimate, the ratio of “paper gold” trading to physical gold trading is 92:1, meaning that the price of gold on the screens has almost nothing to do with the buying and selling of physical gold. This makes the gold market and, therefore, the gold price something of a mockery. As Zero Hedge has highlighted time after time, the gold price has frequently been subject to waterfall declines, as huge volumes of gold futures are dumped on the market with no regard for price. See "Gold Slammed After Someone Pukes $4bn Notional In Gold Futures" on 10 November 2017. Perhaps the FT journalist, Gillian Tett, could write an article on gold, instead of Bitcoin, explaining how the price of the former – a widely viewed indicator of financial risk – is being suppressed by derivative trading. Indeed, Tett was present at a private dinner in Scott’s of Mayfair several years ago when the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee gave a presentation on exactly the same process which she expects to lower the Bitcoin price.
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,582.75 (-0.09%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.03% до уровня 6,342.75. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в преимущественно в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют преимущественно повышение. Nikkei 22,396.80 +45.68 +0.20% Hang Seng 29,199.04 +180.28 +0.62% Shanghai 3,382.34 -16.91 -0.50% S&P/ASX 5,957.25 +13.74 +0.23% FTSE 7,388.39 +1.45 +0.02% CAC 5,335.65 -0.74 -0.01% DAX 13,055.99 +8.77 +0.07% Декабрьские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $56.09 за баррель (+1.72%) Золото торгуется по $1,283.90 за унцию (+0.45%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения после существенного роста рынка акций накануне, вызванного сильной корпоративной отчетностью компаний Wal-Mart (WMT) и Cisco (CSCO), а также сообщением о том, что Палата представителей США приняла налоговый законопроект. Некоторое давление на настроения инвесторов оказывает сообщение Wall Street Journal о том, что специальный следователь Роберт Мюллер выдал повестку в суд для членов предвыборной кампании президента Трампа, чтобы получить документы связанные с Россией. По информации источников издания, команда Мюллера выдала повестку еще в середине октября, обратившись с просьбой предоставить документы и электронные письма более чем десятка высокопоставленных чиновников кампании Трампа, которые включают в себя несколько ключевых слов, связанных с Россией. Инвесторы также анализируют блок данных по рынку жилья. Как стало известно закладки новых домов увеличились до 1290 тыс. в октябре с 1135 тыс. в сентябре против прогноза 1180 тыс. В то же время разрешения на строительство выросли до 1297 тыс. с 1225 тыс. против прогноза 1240 тыс. В фокусе внимания рынка находятся акции компании Tesla (TSLA), которая представила два новых автомобиля - электрический грузовик Tesla Semi и спорткар Tesla Roadster, который, как заявил гендиректор компании Илон Маск, станет самым быстрым серийным автомобилем. По словам Илона Маска, спорткары поступят в продажу в 2020 году. Первые 1000 автомобилей Roadster обойдутся в $250 000 каждый, тогда как последующие авто будут стоить $200 000. В то же время Маск не назвал цену за Semi и не сообщил, как и где будут производится грузовики, но сообщил, что их производство начнется в 2019 году. Акции TSLA на премаркете подскочили на 4.7%. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит также отметить новость о том, что компания NIKE (NKE) решила повысить квартальные дивиденды на 11% до $0.20/акцию. Акции NKE на премаркете выросли на 1.9%.Источник: FxTeam
Yesterday's torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October. And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U.S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting 'aggressive' work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating. The dollar was pressured even as tax reform moved a step forward given Trump-Russia probe came back into focus. Two-year Treasury yield hit a fresh high and bonds slipped. The euro stayed on course to its best week in two months as Draghi remains bullish on prospects of higher wages; the kiwi hit its lowest level since June 2016. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remained on investors’ radar, reaching its flattest levels in a decade, reflecting a belief that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a tax overhaul expected to boost share prices if it becomes law. The legislative battle now shifts to the Senate. As Bloomberg notes, as "Washington took one step closer to tax reform and China’s central bank injected the most cash since January into its financial system this week, investors have been trying to decide if resilient global growth and strong earnings forecasts warrant sticking it out in equities. Lofty valuations contributed to fund managers paring back some exposure after global shares reached record highs earlier this month." As earnings season drew to a close with 90 percent of U.S. and European companies having reported, analysts said results were supportive but weaker than the previous quarters. “While they look good overall, the strong momentum apparent since Q1 is now fading,” said Societe Generale analysts, adding that consensus earnings estimates are no longer being raised for U.S. or euro zone stocks. As also reported on Thursday, Fed's Williams suggested that central banks should consider unconventional policy tools for use in the future, including higher inflation targets and income targeting. Williams also suggested that negative rates need to be on list of potential tools if the US enters a recession, even as he said that a December hike, followed by 3 hikes in 2018 is perfectly reasonable. "What really matters is gradual normalisation not timing, should raise rates to around 2.5% in the next couple of years" he said adding that "Low inflation in a way is lucky as it allows strong growth, however, if it does not pick up over the next few years he will re-think the rate path." Oil prices were on track for weekly losses, slipping from two-year highs hit last week on signs that U.S. supply is rising and could potentially undermine OPEC’s efforts to tighten the market. U.S. light crude stood at $55.53 a barrel, up 0.7 percent on the day but still within its trading range in the past couple of days. It was down 2.1 percent on the week. Brent futures hit a two-week low of $61.08 a barrel but last stood 0.3 percent higher at $61.53. It was down 3.1 percent for the week. Economic data today includes housing starts, building permits. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,583.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 384.06 MSCI Asia up 0.4% to 170.15 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 558.90 Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,396.80 Topix up 0.1% to 1,763.76 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 29,199.04 Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 3,382.91 Sensex up 0.8% to 33,377.55 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,957.25 Kospi down 0.03% to 2,533.99 German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.387% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1795 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $61.78/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 1.572% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.548% Brent Futures up 0.7% to $61.78/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,282.59 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 93.69 Top Overnight News House Republicans pass tax bill, while Senate Finance Committee approves different version Special Counsel Robert Mueller is said to have served President Donald Trump’s election campaign a subpoena in mid-October seeking documents related to Russia contacts ECB President Mario Draghi said he was confident for wage growth in the euro area While U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis said there would be some clarity on the Britain’s divorce bill with the European Union in a “a few more weeks,” there are signs that talks with EU leaders are in a new stand-off Japanese PM Shinzo Abe says he will push through initiatives to boost productivity and compile a new economic policy package next month Canada is open to a Mexican proposal to review the North American Free Trade Agreement every five years instead of ending the deal automatically if not renegotiated, which the U.S. had demanded, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified government sources Senate Panel Approves Tax Plan as GOP Leaders Gird for Battle Murdoch Has His Pick of Suitors as He Ponders Fox’s Fate; Sky Rises Most Since June on Interest From Comcast, Verizon Chinese Stocks Tumble as State Media Warning Triggers Selloff India’s First Moody’s Upgrade in 14 Years Bets on Reforms Draghi Says Confidence on Inflation Will Help Drive Wage Gains China Issues Draft Rules to Curb Asset Management Product Risks Bitcoin Flirts With Record $8,000 High, Leaving Sell-Off Behind PDVSA Looks Like a ‘Zero’ to Man Who Ran Elliott’s Argentina Bet Manafort Spent Millions on Home Updates But Numbers Don’t Add Up Tesla Seals Order From Michigan Grocery Chain for Semi Trucks Luxoft Holding Second Quarter Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates JPMorgan’s Gu Sees ‘Very Robust’ Pipeline for Hong Kong IPOs In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to a report suggesting that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting 'aggressive' work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine probably helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2%. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.4% as the PBoC’s injections have done little to underscore risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. The PBoC injected a net CNY 810bln this week, against a net drain of CNY 230bln last week. Japanese PM Abe promised to rid the country of deflation once and for all. He pledged to use all policy tools, including tax reforms and deregulation, to push up wages in order to put an end to the country's persistent deflation he also noted that he wants to increase pressure on North Korea along with the international community. Japanese Finance Minister Aso stated that Japan is to continue to firmly escape deflation. South Korea's FX authority warned that the pace of the KRW's gains has been fast. A BoK official warned that the KRW has appreciated fast in a short time, and reiterates that FX authorities are monitoring the situation. Moody’s raised India's sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3, outlook to stable from positive. Top Asian News India Rating Raised by Moody’s as Reforms Boost Growth Potential China to Rein Risks in Asset Management Industry China Warning Wipes $6 Billion From Stock Loved by Goldman Erdogan Says Turkey Has Withdrawn Troops From NATO Exercise China Stocks Cap Worst Week Since August as Moutai Battered European bourses trading modestly lower this morning, with downbeat earnings weighing sentiment, while the spill-over from a soft Asian session has dented risk in Europe. Vivendi shares had been lower as much as 2% after a weak earnings update. FTSE 100 slipping slight amid the strength in GBP, which is back above 1.32 against the greenback. Comments from ECB’s Draghi have sparked some additional movement, as while largely sticking to the post-October 26 policy meeting presser he appeared more confident about the growth and inflation outlook (economic activity more self-propelling, underlying inflation to converge with headline etc). Hence, a decline in Bunds below parity to a 162.50 low, but again not yet posing a real threat to more substantial downside targets/supports. Market contacts suggest that 162.48 needs to be breached from an intraday chart perspective to bring Thursday’s 162.38 Eurex base into contention, and recall there are more/bigger stops anticipated below 162.36. On the upside, assuming 162.48 holds, yesterday’s 162.82 session high is the first proper line of resistance. Gilts have also retreated into negative territory alongside Bunds and USTs, to 124.45 vs 124.77 at best and their 124.72 previous settlement. Top European News We’ll Wait for U.K. Brexit Concessions, EU Leaders Tell May From EON to Fortum: How to Save Nasdaq’s Fading Power Market Carige Talks With Underwriters Continue as Deadline Looms Elior Plunges Most on Record as Hurricane Irma Wrecks Party Norway Idea to Exit Oil Stocks Is ‘Shot Heard Around the World’ In FX, the USD is down again, but off worst levels seen so far this week as the Index holds within a 93.500-93.900 broad range. Some respite for Dollar from progress on the tax reform bill, but another Russian-related probe into Trump’s election campaign has capped the upside. The Euro was underpinned by upbeat comments from ECB President Draghi, and holding close to 1.1800 vs the Usd. Hefty option expiries still in play from 1.1790-1.1800 through 1.18250 and up to 1.1840-50. The Yen regaining a safe-haven bid amid the latest US political challenge against the President, with Usd/Jpy down to new multi-weeklows sub-112.50. AUD/NZD is the biggest G10 losers on broad risk-off sentiment and the recovering Greenback, with Aud/Usd back below 0.7600 and Nzd/Usd even weaker under the 0.6800 handle. Note, cross flow also weakening the Kiwi as Aud/Nzd trades back at 1.1100+ levels. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude futures trading higher by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, the latter making a break above yesterday’s at USD 55.59, however has met resistance at the USD 56 handle. Iraq/Kurd oil flow to Ceyhan rises to 254k bpd, according to Port Agent Looking at the day ahead, a slightly quieter end to the week although the ECB’s Draghi is due to give a keynote address on “Europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also slated to speak while the Fed’s Williams speaks in the evening. US housing starts for October and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for November are the data highlights. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.19m, prior 1.13m; MoM, est. 5.59%, prior -4.7% 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.22m; MoM, est. 2.04%, prior -4.5% 10am: MBA Mortgage Foreclosures, prior 1.29%; Mortgage Delinquencies, prior 4.24% 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 20.5, prior 23 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Maybe the S&P 500 will be the new hard currency of the world as nothing seems to break it at the moment. After a very nervous last week (longer in HY and EM) for markets, the S&P 500 closed +0.82% last night (best day since September 11th) and for all the recent fury and angst is only 0.34% off its’ all-time closing high. The Nasdaq gained 1.30% to a fresh all time high and the Stoxx 600 was also up for the first time in eight days. The positive reaction seems to have started in Asia yesterday, in part as commodity prices stabilised somewhat and news that China’s PBoC injected cash with the largest reverse repo operation since January. Then US markets got an additional boost from Cisco guiding to its first revenue gain in eight quarters and Wal-Mart posting its strongest US sales in more than eight years. There was also a little sentiment boost from the House passing its tax bill. This morning in Asia, markets are strengthening further. The Nikkei (+0.11%), Hang Seng (+0.78%) and Kospi (+0.28%) are all modestly up while the Shanghai Comp. is down 0.55% as we type. Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign bond rating for the first time since 2004. It’s one notch higher to Baa2/Stable (also one notch higher than S&P’s BBB-) with the agency citing ongoing progress in economic and institutional reforms. India’s 10y bond yields is down c10bp this morning to 6.96%. Elsewhere, UST 10y has partly reversed yesterday’s moves and is trading c2bp lower. Now back to US tax reforms, which is a small step closer to resolution. The House has voted (227-205) to pass its version of the tax reform bill despite 13 Republicans dissenting. President Trump tweeted “a big step toward fulfilling our promise to deliver historic tax cuts…by the end of the year”. Notably, the more challenging task may now begin in terms of passing the Senate’s version where fiscal constraints are tighter and the Republicans only have 52 of the 100 seats in the Chamber. Overnight, the Senate Finance Committee voted to approve its revised tax package, so a full chamber vote could come as early as the week after Thanksgiving. If passed, the two versions of the tax bill will need to be somehow reconciled. Our US economist believes there is a decent chance that some version of tax reform can be achieved, but this is likely to be a Q1 event with potential stumbling blocks along the way. Turning to the various Brexit headlines, PM May flew out last night to Sweden for an informal summit with European leaders seeking to kick start the stalled Brexit talks. She is expected to meet with the Swedish Premier and Irish counterpart before meeting with EU President Tusk on Friday. Following on, the Brexit Secretary Davis noted that we have to “wait a few more weeks” for clarity on how much UK is willing to pay in the divorce settlement. Elsewhere, Goldman Sachs CEO Blankfein tweeted “many (fellow business leaders) wish for a confirming vote on (Brexit)…so much at stake, why not make sure consensus still there?” Moving onto central bankers’ commentaries. In the US, the Fed’s Mester sounded reasonably balanced and remains supportive of continued gradual policy tightening. She noted “anecdotal feedback from business contacts suggest they are increasing wages”, but it’s going to be hard to see strong wage growth because productivity growth is low. Overall, she sees “good reasons” that inflation will rise back to 2% goal, but “it’s going to take a little longer…” The Fed’s Williams noted one more rate hike this year and three more in 2018 remains a “reasonable guess” subject to incoming data. Finally, the Fed’s Kaplan reiterated the Fed would continue to make progress towards achieving its 2% inflation target, but noted that the neutral fed funds rate is “not that far away”. In the UK, BOE Governor Carney reiterated that interest rates would probably rise “a couple of times over the next few years” if the economy evolved in line with the Bank’s projections, but also cautioned that the fundamental economic impacts of Brexit will only be “known over a very long period of time”. That said, he noted the BOE will remain nimble and support the economy no matter what the result of the Brexit negotiations will be. Elsewhere, Chancellor Hammond has confirmed that the Treasury does not plan to change the inflation gauge that the BOE targets from CPI to CPIH – which includes owner occupied housing costs and is the new preferred price measure by the Office for National Statistics. Now recapping other markets performance yesterday. Within the S&P, only the energy and utilities sector were modestly in the red (-0.58%), partly weighed down by Norway’s sovereign wealth fund plans to sell c$40bln of energy related stocks to make it less vulnerable to the sector. Elsewhere, gains were led by telco, consumer staples and tech stocks. European markets were all higher, with the DAX and CAC up c0.6% while the FTSE 100 was the relative underperformer at +0.19%. The VIX index dropped 10.4% to 11.76. Over in government bonds, UST 10y yields rose 5.3bp following the House’s approval of the tax plans and a solid beat for industrial production, while Gilts also rose 2.3bp, in part due to slightly stronger retail sales figures. Other core bond yields were little changed (10y Bunds flat, OATs -0.4bp), while Italian yields marginally underperformed (+0.5bp), partly reflecting that Banca Carige has failed to get banks to underwrite its planned share sale - making a bail in more likely, as well as recent polls (eg: Ipsos) showing the 5SM party taking a modest lead versus peers. Elsewhere, some of the recent pressure in the HY space appears to be reversing with the Crossover index 9.2bp tighter. Key currencies were little changed, with the US dollar index up 0.13% while Sterling gained 0.18% and Euro fell 0.18%. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.34% yesterday but is trading marginally higher this morning after Saudi Arabia reaffirmed its willingness to extend oil cuts at the November 30 OPEC meeting. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly higher (Gold +0.03%; Silver +0.54%) while other base metals continue to softened, although losses are moderating (Copper -0.17%; Zinc -0.84%; Aluminium -0.35%). Away from the markets, our US economists have published their latest outlook for the US economy. They note the US economy is on good footing for continued above-trend growth in 2018 and beyond. Overall, they believe private sector fundamentals are broadly sound, the labour market has more than achieved full employment and financial conditions are highly supportive of growth. On real GDP growth, their forecast for 2018 is unchanged at 2.3%, but 2019 is up a tenth to 2.1% while growth in 2020 is expected to slow to 1.5% as monetary policy tightening gains traction. The Unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5% by early 2019, so although inflation should remain low through year-end, our team’s medium-term view that core inflation should normalise is intact. Hence, in terms of rates outlook, they still expect the next rate increase in December, followed by three hikes in 2018 and four more in 2019. Elsewhere, tax reform is a wild card, though it faces significant political challenges. Conversely, potential disruptions to trade policy would be a negative development. For more detail, refer to their note. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the October IP was above expectations at 0.9% mom (vs. 0.5%) and 2.9% yoy – the highest since January 2015, in part as the post storm recovery efforts gets underway. Aggregate capacity utilization was also beat at 77% (vs. 76.3% expected) – highest since April 2015 and the NAHB housing market index was also above at 70 (vs. 67) – highest since March. Elsewhere, the November Philly Fed index was slightly below expectations but still solid at 22.7 (vs. 24.6 expected), with both the new orders and employment indices above 20. Finally, the weekly initial jobless claims was slightly higher (249k vs. 235k expected), perhaps impacted by the delayed filings following the storms and the Veteran’s day holiday, while continuing claims fell to a new 44 year low (1,860k vs. 1,900k expected). In the UK, core retail sales (ex-auto fuel) for October slightly beat expectations, at 0.1% mom (vs. flat expected) and -0.3% yoy (vs. -0.4% expected). In the Eurozone, the final reading for October CPI was unrevised at 0.1% mom and 1.4% yoy, but France’s 3Q unemployment was slightly higher than expected at 9.7% (vs. 9.5%). Looking at the day ahead, a slightly quieter end to the week although the ECB’s Draghi is due to give a keynote address on “Europe into a new era – how to seize the opportunities”. The Bundesbank’s Weidmann is also slated to speak while the Fed’s Williams speaks in the evening. US housing starts for October and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index for November are the data highlights.
Основные индексы Азиатско-тихоокеанского региона закрылись в основном в зеленой зоне, после того, как республиканцы проголосовали за утверждение законопроекта о налоговой реформе, что является шагом вперед по плану реформы президента Дональда Трампа. Доллар ослабел против иены, в то время как нефть держалась стабильно, но была на пути к своему первому недельному падению на фоне проблем с поставками. Китайские акции упали на опасения по поводу замедления роста экономики Поднебесной. Японские акции увеличили прибыль от предыдущей сессии, хотя сила иены немного ограничивала рост. Австралийские акции выросли скромно, а во главе роста были финансовые и энергетические компании. Банки ANZ, NAB и Westpac торговались в диапазоне 0,3% и 0,6%, а энергоносители Origin Energy и Santos увеличили капитализацию примерно на 1%. Акции BHP Billiton упали в цене на -0,5% после того, как компания выразила надежду на то, что в ближайшие два года полностью прекратит свою деятельность в сфере сланцевого бизнеса в США . Акции Новой Зеландии вышли на скромные завоевания благодаря таким компаниям как Genesis Energy и Mercury New Zealand. NIKKEI 22396.80 +45.68 +0.20% SHANGHAI 3382.34 -16.91 -0.50% HSI 29199.04 +180.28 +0.62% ASX 200 5957.25 +13.74 +0.23% KOSPI 2533.99 -0.80 -0.03% NZ50 8061.98 +27.28 +0.34% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
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По итогам торгов четверга в США индекс Dow Jones увеличился на 0,8%, S&P прибавил 0,82%, Nasdaq поднялся на 1,3%. В результате значение Dow Jones достигло уровня 23 458,36 пункта, S&P – 2 585,64 пункта, Nasdaq – 6793,29 пункта. Фондовый индекс Бразилии BRSP BOVESPA IND по итогам дня вырос на 2,38%, достигнув 72 511,79 пункта. Идекс Лондонской фондовой биржи FTSE 100 вырос на 0,19% и закрылся на уровне 7386,94 пункта. Индекс Парижской фондовой биржи CAC 40 прибавил 0,66% и закрылся на уровне 5 336,39 пункта. Индекс Франкфуртской фондовой биржи DAX вырос на 0,55% и к закрытию составил 13 047,22 пункта. Значение японского индекса Nikkei поднялось к настоящему времени на 0,06% и составило 22 364,73 пункта. На текущий момент индекс Китая CSI-300 опустился на 0,07% и находится на уровне 4 103,009 пункта.
it has been a rocky session for the dollar which has dumped to a 4-week low, dragging with it USDJPY, the Nikkei and Treasury yields - and to a lesser extend US equity futures - all of which have slumped in the Japanese am session, following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller’s team "caught the Trump campaign by surprise" in mid-October by issuing a document subpoena to more than a dozen top officials. The campaign had previously been voluntarily complying with the special counsel’s requests for information, and had been sharing with Mr. Mueller’s team the documents it provided to congressional committees as part of their probes of Russian interference into the 2016 presidential election. The Trump campaign is providing documents in response to the subpoena on an “ongoing” basis, the person said. If confirmed, this would be the first time Trump’s campaign has been ordered to turn over information to Mueller’s investigation, even if subpoena has not - for now - compelled any officials to testify before Mueller’s grand jury. According to Citi, and a handful of other desks,the news of the report is what initially sent the USDJPY below 113, at which point stop loss selling accelerated and has seen the pair tumble to 112.50 at last check. While it took the other major currencies a while to catch on, the dollar eventually did selloff across the board, with cable and EUR leading the AUD and kiwi. Meanwhile, the Korean won has surged, sending the USDKRW below 1,100, ignoring the latest jawboning and verbal intervention from Korean central bankers. Still, not everyone is convinced and Citi for one, thinks the sell-off in US assets has been exaggerated due to diminished liquidity conditions and stop runs, especially since the news that Mueller issued a subpoena "doesn't really have any implications for markets." Others, such as Westpac's FX strategist Sean Callow, agree: “USD/JPY’s apparent fatigue is consistent with a speculative market already very short yen”he said, adding that “USD/JPY seems to have already factored in not only a Fed hike in December but some form of tax cut package as well.” Furthermore, while the subpoena news may seem surprising, Citi's Ding notes that "we already know that the investigation is ongoing and links between Russia and the Trump campaign are under scrutiny", in other words the WSJ report was to be expected, even if the market appears to be overplaying it for the time being. In any case, at least for now the mood is one of risk off, and in addition to the dollar, Nikkei, yields and US futures all heavy, Chinese stocks are also down with the Shanghai Comp -0.7% lower, although that may be more a function of the sharp reversal in PBOC liquidity injections, because after yesterday's gargantuan 310Bn net reverse repo - and 810Bn net this week - today's 10Bn liquidity drain once again prompted fears that the PBOC just may be serious about the deleveraging after all.
2013 г. стал лучшим для японского фондового рынка с 1972 г. Индекс Nikkei 225 вырос на по итогам уходящего года на 57%, чему способствовали удешевление иены и рост прибыльности японских корпораций. Этот год запомнится экономическими экспериментами, которые проводили многие страны. Самый грандиозный из них проходит в Японии. Японская валюта потеряла около 21% с начала года, что стало одним из главных катализаторов роста. Последний раз подобное удешевление иены наблюдалось только в 1979 г. Чистая прибыль выросла до 5,5 трлн иен ($55 млрд) в целом по 1280 крупнейшим нефинансовым компаниям Японии. Прибыль росла самыми быстрыми темпами с 2010 г., показатель в прошлом году составил 2,25 трлн иен. Рост прибыли был зафиксирован у таких компаний, как Panasonic, которая сократила 71 тыс. рабочих мест, Mazda Motor, перенесшей производство автомобилей в Мексику, и Toyota Motor, которая остановила строительство нового завода. Изменение ВВП Японии, г/г В настоящий момент ситуация на иностранных рынках складывается в пользу японских компаний. Однако ситуация с внутренним спросом остается сложной. По опросу экономистов, проведенном агентством Bloomberg, в следующем году темпы роста зарплат составят лишь 0,6%, в то время как уровень инфляции может превысить 3%. Таким образом, заработные платы будут расти в пять раз медленнее уровня цен. Это дополнительно сократит покупательную способность японцев и может сделать курс экономической политики, проводимый премьер-министром Синдзо Абэ, непопулярным.