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29 марта, 22:11

Two Fed Presidents Warn Markets Getting "Frothy", Valuations "May Come Down"

In what was the clearest sign to date that the Fed is targeting the stock market bubble with its rate hikes (recall two weeks ago Goldman caused a stir when it suggested that the Fed had made a policy error by being overly dovish with its rate hike, which instead of tightening financial conditions, had the effect of a 25bps rate cut), today not one but two Fed presidents warned that the market is getting "a little rich", that "valuations may be a little frothy", and that the record "wealth to income ratio is a reason to keep raising rates." First, it was Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren who during an interview with Bloomberg, said some asset markets are "a little rich", with an emphasis on commercial real-estate valuations, which he said are “pretty ebullient." And while the Boston Fed president repeated what Neel Kashkari told Zero Hedge last week, when he said that "stock market values aren’t a driving force for monetary policy", he made it quite clear that one of the reasons why the Fed is pushing with as many as 4 rate hikes in 2017 is precisely to push stocks lower, saying that "rich asset prices are another reason for the central bank to tighten faster." Achieving the gradual deflating of asset prices would likely require more rate hikes than the market is currently pricing in, and Rosengren hinted as much when he said that four hikes in 2017 may be needed to guard against economic overheating, Then, it was San Fran Fed President John Williams's turn, double down on the caution saying stock market valuations “may be a little frothy in that way, and come down” on fiscal policy disappointment. Suggesting that the market is overvalued, Williams told reporters during a Q&A in New York that “I do think that the market’s perceptions of what’s going to happen ... kind of got ahead of reality” on fiscal policy. Williams also echoed Rosengren saying he “would not rule out more than three increases total for this year.” The median estimate of Fed officials in their mid-March forecasts was for three quarter-point rate increases in 2017. Williams also warned those who are confident that the Fed will not sell Treasuries saying that the Fed can begin shrinking balance sheet before knowing size it should ultimately be: “We could start a normalization of the balance sheet and then make a decision, do we stop at X or Y.” “I think the floor system has been effective” for controlling short-term interest rates and it’s “not that critical” which one Fed uses in the future because it has shown it can control rates with both floor and corridor systems. In effect what the Fed is hoping to do is to avoid a flattening or even inversion of the yield curve by pushing short rates higher while selling long-dated treasuries, in effect prompting an even more aggressive selling in the long-dated part of the curve, in effect undertaking a parallel curve shift, or even one where the curve steepens further. As a reminder, this is something the BOJ is currently attempting with its "Yield Curve Control" program. That said, “we’re not at that point yet” where we can communicate what size we think it will be in the end. But while Williams emphasized the it is the strong economy that gives him confidence that the US can sustain 3 or more rate hikes in 2017, which is surprising because as we have repeatedly shown, the bulk of the economic improvement has been only as a result of sentiment and confidence surveys... ... and not in terms of actual hard data, Williams let the real reason for the Fed's sudden rush to hike rates slip when he said that the "growing wealth-to-income ratio is another reason to keep raising rates." Williams was referring to the following chart we showed three weeks ago:   ... a chart which clearly shows that at least when looked at on a "wealth-to-income" ratio - which now is at an all time high - assets are above the peak-bubble levels that marked both the Greenspan and Bernanke peaks. So is the Fed suddenly, finally, worried about the consequences of its bubble-reflating actions over the past 8 years? If so, good luck trying to put that particular genie back in the bottle, and "deflate" risk assets in a calm, cool and collected manner. In any case, if indeed the Fed is hoping to orchestrate a market drop, it will be a useful and timely test of Kashkari's statement from last week, when the Fed president said a "stock market drop unlikely to trigger crisis."

27 марта, 15:59

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Elsewhere, on Wednesday, the UK is expected to trigger Article 50 starting the European Union exit process. In EM we have monetary policy meetings in Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Mexico and South Africa. Banxico to hike by 25bp. Recap of key global events: Article 50 to be triggered on Wednesday The hawkish BoE and the short market position support GBP, but analysts see negative risks in the months ahead and expect a very slow start of the negotiations after the UK government activates Article 50 next week. Europe will be busy with the elections in France and Germany, while their immediate Brexit focus will be on the UK's EU budget contributions. Markets may have to wait until the end of this year, or even early next year, to have a better view on the negotiations and the chances of a transition period. US data and European CPI & conf. indicators dominate US: Expect a slight upward revision of 4Q GDP (final) to 2.0% from 1.9% previously. On Friday, we also look for personal spending growth of 0.2% m/m for February, unchanged from growth in January (just +0.1% in real terms). BofA looks for personal income growth of 0.4% mom, also unchanged from growth in the prior month. EA: Markets We expect March inflation at 1.7% driven by developments in Spanish electricity prices and liquid fuel prices in the Euro area. On PMIs we continue to interpret them carefully given the disconnect between 'soft' survey data and 'hard' activity data. We have argued before that when this is the case, other soft data (like national sentiment indicators) and hard data are usually more reliable for economic forecasting. The week ahead in Emerging Markets There will be monetary policy meetings in Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, Mexico and South Africa. We forecast Banxico hiking 25bp. Rating reviews in Russia and Bahrain. * * * A breakdown of daily key events in the coming week courtesy of Deutsche Bank: We’re kicking off things this morning in Europe with Germany where the March IFO survey is due out. The latest M3 money supply reading for the Euro area is also due this morning. Over in the US this afternoon the sole release is the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey for March. With little to highlight in Europe tomorrow, the focus will be on the US where we get the advance goods trade balance for February, wholesale inventories for February, consumer confidence for March, S&P/Case-Shiller house price index for January and Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for March are due. Wednesday kicks off in Japan where retail sales and small business confidence data is due. Over in Europe the focus will be on the UK with the February money and credit aggregates data. In the US on Wednesday the only data due out is pending home sales. Turning to Thursday, during the European session the most notable data is due out of Germany where the first estimate of CPI in March is due. Also due out are various March confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the US on Thursday the early data is the third estimate of Q4 GDP and Core PCE, while initial jobless claims data is also due. The busiest day looks set to be reserved for Friday. In Japan we will get February CPI, industrial production and employment data, while in China the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI’s for March are due. In Europe we’ll get CPI reports for France and the Euro area along with Q4 GDP in the UK and unemployment in Germany. In the US data due includes February personal income and spending reports, PCE core and deflator readings, the Chicago PMI for March and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading revision. Away from the data the Fedspeak diary this week is packed. Today we see Evans and Kaplan speak, tomorrow we have George, Kaplan and Powell speaking along with Fed Chair Yellen (albeit at a conference which doesn’t suggest a focus on the economy or monetary policy), Wednesday see’s Evans, Rosengren and Williams speak, Thursday has Mester, Williams and Kaplan scheduled and Friday finishes with Kashkari. Away from that other important events this week include the BoE bank stress test scenarios today, a Scottish Parliament debate * * * Finally, focusing on the US events with consensus estimates, courtesy of Goldman Monday, March 27 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +22.0, last +24.5) 01:15 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will participate in a panel discussion on “Monetary Policy in a New Economic Environment” at the Global Interdependence Center’s Central Banking conference in Madrid. 06:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a panel on economic conditions and the role of monetary policy hosted by the Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy at the Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Tuesday, March 28 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advance goods trade balance, February preliminary (GS -$64.5bn, consensus -$66.6bn, last -$68.8bn): We estimate the goods trade deficit narrowed $4.3bn to $64.5bn in February, following last month’s $4.4bn widening that we believe reflected a pronounced impact from the relatively early Chinese New Year, which likely shifted the timing of imports from February to January. Available port statistics in February suggest a sharp pullback in inbound container traffic, further evidence of the Chinese New Year shift; Wholesale inventories, February preliminary (consensus +0.2%, last -0.2%) 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.9%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 0.7% in the January report following a 0.9% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which rose to 5.6% from 5.2% in December. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 115.0, consensus 114.0, last 114.8): We forecast that consumer confidence edged up to 115 following last month’s 3.2pt rise to a new cycle high. Our forecast reflects encouraging consumer sentiment data in February as well as recent stock market strength during most of the survey period. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +15, last +17) 12:45 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give the keynote speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a forum on “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking” in Midwest City, Oklahoma. Audience Q&A is expected. 12:50 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech titled “Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities” at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s annual conference in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected. 01:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated discussion at an event hosted by the Dallas Committee on Foreign Relations in Dallas, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:30 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on the history and structure of the Federal Reserve as a part of the West Virginia University College of Business Economics’ Distinguished Speaker Series. Audience Q&A is expected. Wednesday, March 29 09:20 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a lecture on current economic conditions and monetary policy as a part of the DZ Bank's International Capital Market’s Conference in Frankfurt, Germany. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS +4.0%, consensus +2.1%, last -2.8%): Regional housing data released so far suggest a fairly strong rebound in contract signings for existing homes in February, possibly reflecting the unseasonably warm temperatures and limited snowfall during the month. We expect a 4.0% increase in the pending homes sales index that would fully reverse January’s 2.8% pullback. An increase of that magnitude would be particularly encouraging in the context of higher mortgage rates. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. 11:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will discuss the economic outlook at a Boston Economic Club luncheon. 01:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give a presentation titled “From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth; What a Different Four Years Makes” to the Forecasters Club of New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Thursday, March 30 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q4 (GS +1.9%, consensus +2.0%, last +1.9%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +3.0%, consensus +3.0%, last +3.0%): We do not expect a revision on an unrounded basis in the third estimate of Q4 GDP, where growth is currently reported at a 1.9% pace (qoq ar). While our base case entails an unchanged reading for headline GDP, we believe there is some risk of an upward revision to the personal consumption and business fixed investment components. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 25 (GS 240k, consensus 247k, last 261k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 18 (consensus 2,037k, last 1,990k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline sharply to 240k, reversing last week’s sharp rise that we believe largely reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella. State-level details suggest an impact from the storm on the order of 15k during the week. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent weeks, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue. 09:45 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech on payment system improvement at the 10th Annual Risk Conference, hosted jointly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and DePaul University’s Center for Financial Services in Chicago. 11:15 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give a speech at the launch and learning community event for the Strong, Prosperous and Resilient Communities Challenge in New York. 03:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will take part in a moderated Q&A on economic conditions and the role of monetary policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Capital Markets Summit in Washington D.C. 04:30 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech on “The Importance of Financial Conditions in the Conduct of Monetary Policy” at a Financial Literacy Day & Laboratory Dedication event at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Audience Q&A is expected. Friday, March 31 8:30 AM Personal income, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PCE price index, February (GS +0.12%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.4%); Core PCE price index, February (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PCE price index (yoy), February (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.9%); Core PCE price index (yoy), February (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose 0.17% month-over-month in February, or 1.7% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.12% in February, or 2.1% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.5% increase in February personal income and a 0.3% rise in personal spending. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, March (GS 56.0, consensus 56.9, last 57.4): We expect the Chicago PMI to edge down to 56.0 in March, following a sharp 7.1pt increase in February. The index is likely to remain at a level consistent with solid manufacturing growth, in line with incoming reports from other regional manufacturing surveys. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March preliminary (GS 97.8 consensus 97.6, last 97.6): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up an additional 0.2pt to 97.8 in the March final estimate, reflecting some further improvement among more timely measures of consumer confidence. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations declined three tenths to 2.2%, a new record low. However, median 5-year gas price expectations also dropped to a 12-year low, and in past research we’ve found a short-term relationship between these two measures that often results in a reversal in subsequent months. While we cannot rule out the possibility of a step-down in underlying views about the long-term inflation outlook, we see this as a tentative reason to expect a rebound over the next couple months. 10:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a moderated discussion on the economy and the Federal Reserve system at the Annual Banking Law Institute seminar in Minneapolis. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will participate in an interview on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at a Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education forum in New York. No media Q&A is expected. Source: Goldman, Bofa, DB

27 марта, 04:40

"They're Baaack! And Why You Should Be Worried – Very Worried"

Authored by Mark St.Cyr, Bubbles are easy to spot – pinpointing when they’ll pop – is quite another. I coined that phrase a while back which is nothing more than adding my own spin combining two very old catch phrases used by seasoned traders and investors. I use the word “seasoned” for a reason. Why? Because they’re the ones that have been around (and been burned themselves) yet lived to trade, or invest, another day. Those who remained wedded (usually the novice or one who’s never experienced true volatility) to the more prominent and specious claims of “you can’t tell when you’re in a bubble” followed with “you can always get out in time” for the most part are long gone. i.e.,The bubble popped into the ether – along with their money. Nowhere was this phenom more apparent than the real-estate boom of the early 2000’s, which followed the prior phenom only 10 years prior (e.g., the dot-com crash) that should have seared into people’s memory for millennia just how “bubbles” take shape – and the resulting financial devastation that happens rapidly once they’ve popped. Guess what? (actually you already know) nobody seems too care. Yet, here’s something you may not know, but should: It’s all happening again, and in the same time frame. We are once again (you’re going to see that phrase a lot) hovering in and around the all-time highs in the “markets.” And, once again, all the warning signs are coming into place that should be the tell-tale signs for prudence and caution. Here are three, but they’re a very big 3 when combined. Ready? Tony Robbins has authored another financial book. Suze Orman has once again reemerged to deliver her brand of financial advice. They’re both delivering their insights at a venue titled (wait for it) Real Estate Wealth Expo™, where you too can learn how to become a millionaire via real estate. So, let me make this statement right-off-the-bat: This isn’t a hit piece about either Tony, Suze, or The Expo. What I’m strictly relating my argument too is the phenom and psychology that reemerges with a vengeance during what is known as “the topping process.” aka “The late stages of a bubble mentality.” This is the moment in time where generic, over simplified advice, that sounds so good (and too good) shouted too an adoring crowd  – should be taken as the siren, and clarion call to those who are diligent in preserving their wealth to buckle up, buckle down, and prepare in earnest. For once this show is over? “Over” is going to be something many of those attending these types of seminars are going to pray for – as in “Please make it stop!” To re-aquaint you with a little ancient history, let’s remember Tony’s first book (Money: Master the Game) and when it emerged: November 2014. Do you remember what else took place at that point? Hint: QE (quantitative easing) ended in earnest. Remember what followed for the next 2 full years? Again, hint: The “markets” ping pong’d between “all time highs” and “Holy S–t! This thing is all about to collapse – again!” Which is precisely why we now have something called the “Bullard Bottom.” What were the markets doing prior to this?: A straight up, one-way, rocket-ship ride since the origination of the “Bernanke Put” then reiterated in 2010 by its namesake chairman in his now famous (or infamous) 2010 Jackson Hole speech, where he basically announced QE “forever” would remain under his tutelage until he retired in late 2014. Since then what’s remained and is still prevalent today (maybe even more so) is that other phenom now known as “Buy The F’n Dip” (BTFD.) When Tony’s book first emerged I made my opinion of it quite clear in the article, “Why Tony Robbins Is Asking The Wrong Questions” One of the main points I tried to express was the following. To wit: “The real issue at hand from my point of view is this: Looking for answers to both financial safety as well as financial freedom in the same light or viewpoint where it seems one only needs to “think like a billionaire” or “tweak” or “slightly modify” perceptions on how one approaches these financial markets today – will hurt more than it will help.   The markets for all intents and purposes are no longer for the “average” person looking to make gains in any form today. What is needed now more than ever is a direct understanding that safety – safety above all else – is paramount. And exactly how one can achieve it. Or get as close to the proverbial “cash in the mattress” understanding of it as humanly possible.   The idea of “diversification” is a great sounding idea in principle and theory. However, it is one of the greatest myths when it comes to protecting one’s assets in today’s financial market place aka Wall Street.” Not only do I still feel the same today as I did then. My opinion has become far more steadfast. I had even expressed this a year later in Nov. of 2015 when (once again) Tony was appearing on many of main stream financial/business media outlets as the “markets” kept up the appearance of “gains” as they ping pong’d between “near death” experiences and ” new all time highs.” Even if those “highs” many times were only by a mere point or such, yet, the headline was the only thing that seemed to matter. In the article “Why Tony Robbins Is Still Asking The Wrong Questions” I laid out my argument using charts, and current data, as to try to drive this singular point across. Again, to wit: “First: The answers to the questions Tony realized are far from groundbreaking. They’ve been around for some time. Yet, it’s the second part that has the most troubling aspect in my view, and that problem is this: Although fees are a very important aspect of financial planning at any level. Where prudence in reducing them should always be sought with vigor. In markets such as these, just one year since Tony’s book “Money Master The Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom,” (2014 Simon & Schuster) The most probing questions that should remain front-of-mind, everyday, with no respite should be focused squarely to: The surety for the return of one’s money. Then the proverbial “on.” Period. Confusing that sequence today is a recipe for financial disaster waiting to happen in my view.   Safety today is paramount. I am ever-the-more resolute of the opinion: Everything else is playing around the edges. And as I watched or listened – I heard nothing addressing the preponderance of possible systemic failures or upheavals. Let alone how one might safeguard themselves from one. Oh wait, yes there was one: “diversification.” All I’ll point to on that note, is what I pointed to last time – 2008. For diversification in the markets was, for all intents and purposes; a meaningless exercise during the panic. Why? Lest I remind you during the panic how everything was going down the drain simultaneously?” As illustrative of what the “markets” were doing back then. What I would like to remind you of is this: During this period (e.g., 2015-16 and still present today) there’s a very little discussed fact: Many of the experts couldn’t do the one thing the least informed “investors” been doing in spades and “winning!” e.g., BTFD horns-over-hooves, forget fundamentals, forget diversification, forget the experts, forget everything. Just buy an ETF or Index (just make sure if has a central bank’s bullseye on it) and spend the rest of that time once used for “research” in researching and picking out your desired options in your new Rolls!” Bam! For those who are questioning my assertions, may I remind you that even Paul Tudor Jones during 2016 was battling losses (yes – losing great amounts of money resulting in $2.1 Billion in redemptions alone.) The reason? (in my opinion) Hedge funds (you know, where that term “diversification” is the root of its meaning) can’t hedge in a “market” without amassing losses for those hedges. Combine that with fees and more? And the best of the best can’t compete with a chimp throwing darts at a board full of ticker symbols supported via central bank intervention. Making the whole idea that one can simply “diversify” to safety pure poppycock. Period. To repeat – if hedging is now pretty much a losing battle (see preceding paragraph) and hedge ultimately means diversify, as to hedge against losses – where even the professional money manager can no longer “hedge” without incurring losses (even those once considered “the best”) what does “diversify” currently mean to the unskilled or average investor? Where even going to “cash” which was once thought the ultimate “safety” as in a “Money Market” account no longer applies to that once thought “safety” zone. Why some might ask? Easy… Your “Money Market” fund today is basically nothing more than a stock with a different name. In other words: it can be gated without notice other than telling you – it’s been gated. (e.g.,you won’t be able to get at it. And who knows for how long, if ever.) Since the rule change. Also: it can “break the buck” e.g., It’s no longer guaranteed to be worth what you’ve deposited. e.g., $1.00 can now fluctuate to be worth what ever the “market” states it to be. Just like a stock. Hint: Think Snapchat™ for clues. As alarming as the above might sound. (And I’ll bet dollars-to-donuts you wont hear that coming from the stage) You know who else was perplexed and calling for any help no matter how stupefying it sounded? You guessed it – today’s (once again) “financial expert” Suze Orman. For those who may not remember how precarious and outright terrifying the “markets” were gyrating back during 2015 (you know, back in the ancient history) it was none other than Ms. Orman that took the Twitter-verse to call for the one. and only, great hope the “markets” seemed to have left, when she called to the heavens for none other than CNBC™ host James Cramer to plead with Janet Yellen as to not raise interest rates. From the article, “The Week That Laid The Experts Bare” To wit: “Then there was Suze Orman’s taking to Twitter™ pleading to none other than the Fed. and Jim Cramer.   Of Fed. Chair Yellen she pleads “help us out. Commit to no rate increases.” And to Mr. Cramer, “Jim do something” and more. This is coming from someone who self describes themselves as “America’s Most Trusted Personal Finance Expert.” I’ll let this stand on its own, and let you be the judge. I’m at a loss for lost for words, and for anyone who knows me – that’s saying something. For one can only surmise by her pleads, those that were taking her advice of late were caught and blindsided by the events of the day much like she appears to have been.” I guess time heals all wounds, and BTFD investing advice heals all 401K balances. That is – until it doesn’t – but no one cares. Why? Let me express it this way for this is what now seems to be the current meme for creating wealth. Ready? “Just BTFD, or flip that house! It’s so darn easy, and the music is playing so loud I can hardly hear myself think, but that’s the point – I don’t have too! It’s a win-win!! And Yes -you too! can become a millionaire easy-peasy. The only hard part? Are you willing to take the risk – and decide today?” That’s about it as far as I can tell. However, since I’m also in the business/motivation business let me offer you up this little tidbit of caution if you’re planning on attending one of these so-called “wealth” seminars. And it’s this… As you jump, cheer, and shout as Tony or any other speaker there screams from the stage for you to shout in unison, or to the person directly adjacent to you, “I own you!” as some mantra for you to remember as to help solidify your reasoning, and wherewithal as to commit to your decision making process. Let me add this one note of caution… That is precisely what the banks, mortgage holders, credit card companies, city, and county real estate tax authorities, IRS, bankruptcy courts, lawyers, and more will be shouting at you if there’s even a hiccup in this current BTFD “market” stampede. And if you think there’s no true “market” indigestion forth coming? Here’s just two as of late to consider. First: Canada (you know, where the latest “Wealth Expo” just concluded March 18th in Toronto) is showing the beginning effects when “hot money” flows are seen (as in confused) as “proof” of investment prowess. Yes – Toronto is booming. But there’s a reason, and it’s not a good one. That reason? Because Vancouver values are collapsing. Now down some 40% and growing as Chinese “hot money” needed to find another spot to park, and quick! How do you think all those newly minted “investors” in Vancouver currently feel? Second: The Federal Reserve has now openly stated not only are they going to raise rates – they are going to raise far faster than anyone just 4 months ago thought plausible, while also openly discussing the need (and want) for balance sheet reduction to go hand in hand, all while the economic reports such as Atlanta Fed. estimates Q1 GDP have crashed to now below the previously revised down 1.2%, to now just .9%. And if that wasn’t enough to make one think twice? Add to that the now professed answer by Minneapolis Fed. president Neel Kashkari when questioned about Fed. responses to any potential sell-off. To wit: “Don’t care about stock market fall itself. Care abt potential financial instability. Stock market drop unlikely to trigger crisis.” Remember: He was the only dissenter in the latest March hike. And appears to be not worried in the least. Which is precisely why you should, for “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes” no longer appears purely anecdotal with the above for context, does it?

24 марта, 12:40

Голосование по Obamacare отложено в связи с разногласиями республиканцев

Влияние на рынок:2Devata TsengГолосование по первому законопроекту Трампа об отмене и замене Obamacare новой системой медицинского страхования в США было внезапно перенесено с вечера четверга на пятницу в связи с серьёзными разногласиями внутри республиканской партии.Президент Трамп и республиканские лидеры пытаются убедить больше республиканцев поддержать новый законопроект. Тем не менее, похоже, что будет достаточно сложно развернуть ситуацию за короткий период. Трамп заявлял, что в случае провала отмены, он может оставить Obamacare (что идёт полностью вразрез с его предвыборными обещаниями).Партия республиканцев удерживает большинство в Конгрессе США, Палате представителей и Сенате. Демократическое меньшинство будет голосовать против законопроекта. Чтобы его утвердить, понадобится, по меньшей мере, 215 голосов из 430 текущих членов. Таким образом, максимальное количество “отступников” в партии ограничено 22 голосами из 237 представителей республиканцев.Индекс доллара колебался в диапазоне 99.30 – 99.80 в течение последних трёх дней. Если законопроект провалится, рынки потеряют доверие к администрации Трампа и его политическим намерениям (снижение налогов и реформа регуляции), что определённо скажется на долларе и американских акциях. Индекс доллара, вероятно, будет снижаться и протестирует важный уровень поддержки на 99.00.Председатель ФРС Йеллен выступила в четверг на Community Development Research. Неожиданно она в основном говорила о финансовом образовании детей и подростков, ничего не упоминая о денежно-кредитной политике и/или экономических перспективах.Президент ФРБ Далласа Роберт Каплан (голосующий член FOMC) заявил в четверг, что ФРС следует потенциально серьёзно задуматься об отказе от мягкой монетарной политики, так как американская экономика все же прогрессирует, условия на рынке труда улучшаются, и это указывает на три повышения процентных ставок в этом году”. С учётом всего сказанного, ФРС, вероятно, повысит процентные ставки дважды до конца этого года.И напротив, президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари (голосующий член FOMC) заявил, что “инфляция остаётся ниже целей ФРС”. Он был единственным противником повышения ставок FOMC на прошлой неделе.Шотландский парламент отложил утверждение второго шотландского референдума по независимости в связи с террористической атакой в Лондоне. Голосование было отложено до вторника 28 марта, таким образом, оно пройдёт всего за день до официального запуска процесса Brexit. В связи с этим можно ожидать роста волатильности по фунту и кроссам с валютой в течение этого периода.Сегодня мы увидим публикацию статистики по объёму заказов на товары длительного пользования в США, а также базовым заказам на товары длительного пользования за февраль вместе с индексом потребительских цен в Канаде, а также базовым индексом CPI за февраль в 12:30 GMT.Президенты ФРБ будут выступать сегодня в следующем порядке:12:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Чикаго, голосующий член FOMC Чарльз Эванс,13:05 GMT Президент ФРБ Сент-Луиса, голосующий член FOMC Джеймс Буллард,14:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка, постоянный голосующий член FOMC Уильям Дадли.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/24032017-golosovanie-po-obamacare-otlozheno-v-svyazi-s-raznoglasiyami-respublikantsev/ ..Источник: FxTeam

24 марта, 12:12

Healthcare Vote Postponed Due To Republican Disagreement

The vote on President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office, to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the American Health Care Act, was postponed abruptly from Thursday evening to Friday March 24, due to severe disagreements within the Republican party. President Trump and Republican leaders have been attempting to convince more Republicans to support the new bill. However, it seems to be difficult to reverse the situation in a short time period. Trump stated that if the bill fails to pass he would leave the Obamacare in place (against his election pledge). The Republican party holds the majority in the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democratic minority will vote against the Bill. The Bill requires at least 215 votes to pass from the House’s 430 current members. Therefore, the maximum of defections is limited to 22 votes from the Republican party’s 237 representatives. The dollar index has been oscillating in a range between 99.30 – 99.80 set in the past two days. If the Bill fails to pass, markets would likely lose confidence in Trump’s administration and his other policies (such as tax-cuts and regulation reform) which will likely weigh on USD and US equities. The dollar index will likely fall and test the significant support level at 99.00. Fed Chair Yellen made a speech on Thursday at the Community Development Research. Unexpectedly, she mainly talked about financial education for children and teenagers without mentioning monetary policy and/or the economic outlook. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (an FOMC voting member) said on Thursday that “the Fed should patiently remove monetary policy accommodation, as the US economy is making progress and the job market is tight, and suggesting three rate hikes this year”. With that said, the Fed will likely raise rates two times more until the end of the year. Conversely, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (an FOMC voting member) commented that “inflation remains below the Fed’s target”. He was the only one who dissented a rate hike in last week’s FOMC rate decision. The Scottish parliament postponed a second Scottish independence referendum vote due to the terror attack at Westminster. The vote was postponed until Tuesday 28 March, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. We can expect volatility on GBP and GBP crosses over the period. Today we will see the release of US durable goods orders and core durable goods (Fed), accompanied by Canadian CPI and core CPI (Feb), at 12:30 GMT. Fed presidents are scheduled to deliver speeches today per the following schedule: 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, an FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, an FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, an FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley

24 марта, 12:12

Healthcare Vote Postponed Due To Republican Disagreement

The vote on President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office, to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the American Health Care Act, was postponed abruptly from Thursday evening to Friday March 24, due to severe disagreements within the Republican party. President Trump and Republican leaders have been attempting to convince more Republicans to support the new bill. However, it seems to be difficult to reverse the situation in a short time period. Trump stated that if the bill fails to pass he would leave the Obamacare in place (against his election pledge). The Republican party holds the majority in the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democratic minority will vote against the Bill. The Bill requires at least 215 votes to pass from the House’s 430 current members. Therefore, the maximum of defections is limited to 22 votes from the Republican party’s 237 representatives. The dollar index has been oscillating in a range between 99.30 – 99.80 set in the past two days. If the Bill fails to pass, markets would likely lose confidence in Trump’s administration and his other policies (such as tax-cuts and regulation reform) which will likely weigh on USD and US equities. The dollar index will likely fall and test the significant support level at 99.00. Fed Chair Yellen made a speech on Thursday at the Community Development Research. Unexpectedly, she mainly talked about financial education for children and teenagers without mentioning monetary policy and/or the economic outlook. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (an FOMC voting member) said on Thursday that “the Fed should patiently remove monetary policy accommodation, as the US economy is making progress and the job market is tight, and suggesting three rate hikes this year”. With that said, the Fed will likely raise rates two times more until the end of the year. Conversely, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (an FOMC voting member) commented that “inflation remains below the Fed’s target”. He was the only one who dissented a rate hike in last week’s FOMC rate decision. The Scottish parliament postponed a second Scottish independence referendum vote due to the terror attack at Westminster. The vote was postponed until Tuesday 28 March, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. We can expect volatility on GBP and GBP crosses over the period. Today we will see the release of US durable goods orders and core durable goods (Fed), accompanied by Canadian CPI and core CPI (Feb), at 12:30 GMT. Fed presidents are scheduled to deliver speeches today per the following schedule: 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, an FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, an FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, an FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley

23 марта, 16:27

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,346.25 (+0.16%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.07% до уровня 5,369.75. Внешний фон позитивный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют преимущественно позитивную динамику. Nikkei 19,085.31 +43.93 +0.23% Hang Seng 24,327.70 +7.29 +0.03% Shanghai 3,248.91 +3.69 +0.11% FTSE 7,320.01 -4.71 -0.06% CAC 5,001.99 +7.29 +0.15% DAX 11,945.59 +41.47 +0.35% Майские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $48.19 за баррель (+0.31%) Золото торгуется по $1,250.30 за унцию (+0.05%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительные изменения, так как инвесторы ожидают голосования по законопроекту о здравоохранении в США - первому знаменательному политическому тесту для президента Дональда Трампа. Трамп и республиканцы заявили в среду, что у них достаточно голосов, чтобы отменить закон о здравоохранении, принятый Обамой. Любые сложности в процессе отмены реформы могут быть восприняты как сигнал о недоверии Конгресса к президенту Трампу и усилят вероятность возможной неудачи обещанных администрацией США налоговой реформы и увеличения инфраструктурных расходов, которые должны подстегнуть экономический рост в стране, Это, в свою очередь, может оказать понижательное давление на американский фондовый рынок, так как именно ожидания стимулирующих мер способствовали повышению индексов до рекордных максимумов. Голосование в Конгрессе должно состояться сегодня вечером по восточно-американскому времени. В фокусе внимания также находится отчет Министерства труда, который показал, что первичные обращения за пособием по безработице на прошлой неделе выросли до 258 тыс., тогда как аналитики прогнозировали 240 тыс. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать данные по продажам новостроек в США (14:00 GMT), а также выступление члена FOMC Нила Кашкари (16:30 GMT).Источник: FxTeam

23 марта, 13:39

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация двух важных показателей

В четверг, 23 марта, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация двух важных макроэкономических показателей. Так, в 15:30 МСК станет известно количество первичных обращений за пособиями по безработице за минувшую неделю. Согласно прогнозам, показатель составил 240000 после 241000 неделей ранее. В 17:00 МСК выйдут данные по продажам нового жилья за февраль. Ожидается, что показатель составил 0,565 млн по сравнению с 0,555 млн в январе. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить недельное изменение запасов природного газа, а также индекс деловой активности в промышленности ФРБ Канзаса. Кроме того, в 15:00 МСК выступит глава ФРС Джанет Йеллен, а в 19:00 МСК состоится выступление главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари. В календаре корпоративных отчетностей значатся Gamestop, KB Home и Micron Technology, которые представят свои финансовые результаты после закрытия рынка.

23 марта, 13:08

Золото тестирует зону сопротивления перед выступлением Йеллен

Влияние на рынок:1Devata TsengЗолото было в состоянии ралли шесть дней подряд с 15 марта, таким образом, это была наиболее длинная бычья череда роста с января после тестирования важной зоны сопротивления между 1195 – 1200 в середине марта. Рыночные опасения в отношении политики Трампа и французских президентских выборов толкнули инвесторов в сторону безопасных активов. Снижение доллара также подтолкнуло вверх стоимость золота. Стоимость золота на спотовом рынке достигла трехнедельного максимума на уровне 1251.20. Быки протестировали в среду вечером важный уровень сопротивления на 1250, тем не менее, цена скорректировалась. Диапазон 1250–1260 – важная краткосрочная зона сопротивления, где давление распродажи достаточно сильно. Быки по золоту, вероятно, столкнутся со сложностями в этой зоне. Линии Стохастика на дневном графике около 90, указывая на коррекцию. Уровень сопротивления на 1248, следом идут 1250 и 1253.50. Уровень поддержки на 1245, следом идут 1243 и 1240.50. Председатель ФРС Йеллен выступит с речью сегодня в 12:45 GMT на Community Development Research, и ее комментарии станут основными среди всех представителей ФРС на этой неделе. Президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари (голосующий член FOMC) выступит с речью в 16:30 GMT, следом комментарии даст президент ФРБ Далласа Роберт Каплан (голосующий член FOMC) в 23:00 GMT. Сегодня выходят данные по первичным обращениям за пособиями по безработице в США (за неделю по 10 марта) в 12:30 GMT, после выходят данные по продажам новых домов в США за февраль в 14:00 GMT. Выступления представителей ФРС и экономические данные, вероятно, повлияют на курс доллара, кроссы с валютой и стоимость золота.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/market-snapshots/23032017-zoloto-testiruet-zonu-soprotivleniya-pered-vyistupleniem-yellen/ ..Источник: FxTeam

23 марта, 12:34

Доллар колеблется около уровней поддержки перед выступлением Йеллен

Влияние на рынок:2Devata TsengСегодня американский Конгресс проголосует по отмене Obamacare, что стало первой законотворческой инициативой Трампа с момента вступления в должность. Президент Трамп предупредил республиканцев, что в случае отклонения его предложения, они попросту потеряют свои места. Если же предложение пройдет, это означает, что многие американцы станут платить за медицину гораздо больше.Рынки же волнует, что в случае провала инициативы Трампа это поставит под вопрос и другие намерения, например, снижение налогов или ослабление регуляции. Эти опасения давят на доллар и американские акции, американский доллар продолжал снижение в среду. Индекс доллара пробил важный уровень поддержки на 99.50, а также минимум за 7 недель на уровне 99.32. Быки по доллару попытались восстановить этот уровень в начале торгов этим утром. Следующий важный уровень поддержки находится на 99.00; если этот уровень будет пробит, вероятно, мы увидим дальнейшую распродажу доллара.Председатель ФРС Йеллен выступит сегодня в 12:45 на Community Development Research, и ее комментарии станут главными среди многих представителей ФРС на этой неделе.Последние опросы на тему французских выборов показывают жесткое противостояние между 3 кандидатами: Макроном, Ле Пен и Фийоном. При этом Фийон обвиняется в создании фиктивных рабочих мест, и сейчас идет официальное расследование. Кандидат от правых Ле Пен строит свою кампанию на том, что она выведет Францию из ЕС следом за Brexit.Рыночные опасения в отношении политики Трампа и французских выборов толкнули инвесторов в сторону безопасных активов. Снижение доллара также подтолкнуло вверх стоимость золота. Стоимость золота на спотовом рынке превысила максимальное значение за 3 недели на уровне 1251.20, тестируя важный уровень сопротивления на 1250 в среду вечером.Резервный Банк Новой Зеландии сохранил ставки неизменными на уровне 1.75%, что соответствовало ожиданиям. Пара NZD/USD сохраняет неизменную динамику, так как РБНЗ придерживается позиции, что денежно-кредитная политика остается адаптивной в обозримом будущем из-за существенной глобальной неопределенности, указывающей на необходимость не спешить с решениями.Сегодня выйдут данные по британским розничным продажам за февраль в 09:30 GMT. За ними последуют данные по первоначальным заявкам на пособия по безработице в США (за неделю по 10 марта) в 12:30 GMT, а также выступление Йеллен в 12:45 GMT, а также данные по продажам новых домов за февраль в 14:00 GMT.Президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари (голосующий член FOMC) выступит в 16:30 GMT, следом президент ФРБ Далласа Роберт Каплан (голосующий член FOMC) в 23:00 GMT.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/23032017-dollar-kolebletsya-okolo-urovney-podderzhki-pered-vyistupleniem-yellen/ ..Источник: FxTeam

23 марта, 12:14

USD Hovers Around Support Levels Ahead of Yellen’s Speech and Health Care Bill

Today the US Congress will vote on whether to repeal Obamacare, which is President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office. President Trump has warned Republicans that, if the healthcare reform bill fails to pass, they will lose their seats. However, if the new healthcare bill passes, that means many Americans pay a much higher amount of money on medical spending. For the markets the concern is, that if the bill fails to pass, President Trump’s other policies, such as tax-cuts and regulation reform would also encounter hurdles. These concerns weigh on USD and US equities. USD continued falling on Wednesday. The dollar index broke a significant support line at 99.50 and hitting a 7-week low of 99.32. USD bulls attempted to recover the level early this morning. The next significant support is at 99.00; if this level is broken we will likely see a further USD sell-off. Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to make a speech at 12:45 GMT today, Thursday March 23rd, at the Community Development Research, which is the major focus amongst this week’s Fed speeches. The latest French presidential election polls show a tight race between the three candidates: Macron, Le Pen and Fillon. Even with Fillon being charged with creating fake jobs and being put under formal investigation. The right-wing candidate, Le Pen, has stated her attempt to take France out of the EU following Brexit. Market concerns, over President Trump’s policies and the French presidential election, are resulting in Investors turning to safe havens. The weakening of USD has also pushed gold prices up. Spot gold hit a 3-week high of 1251.20, testing a significant resistance level at 1250 on Wednesday evening. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged at 1.75% which was in line with expectations. NZD/USD remains unchanged as the RBNZ stated that “monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period because the global economic uncertainties remain substantial and there is no hurry to alter policies”. Today will see the release of UK retail sales for February at 09:30 GMT. This is followed by US initial jobless claims (for the week ending March 10) at 12:30 GMT, Yellen’s speech at 12:45 GMT and US new home sales for February at 14:00 GMT. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (a FOMC voting member) will make a speech at 16:30 GMT followed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (a FOMC voting member) at 23:00 GMT.

23 марта, 12:14

USD Hovers Around Support Levels Ahead of Yellen’s Speech and Health Care Bill

Today the US Congress will vote on whether to repeal Obamacare, which is President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office. President Trump has warned Republicans that, if the healthcare reform bill fails to pass, they will lose their seats. However, if the new healthcare bill passes, that means many Americans pay a much higher amount of money on medical spending. For the markets the concern is, that if the bill fails to pass, President Trump’s other policies, such as tax-cuts and regulation reform would also encounter hurdles. These concerns weigh on USD and US equities. USD continued falling on Wednesday. The dollar index broke a significant support line at 99.50 and hitting a 7-week low of 99.32. USD bulls attempted to recover the level early this morning. The next significant support is at 99.00; if this level is broken we will likely see a further USD sell-off. Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to make a speech at 12:45 GMT today, Thursday March 23rd, at the Community Development Research, which is the major focus amongst this week’s Fed speeches. The latest French presidential election polls show a tight race between the three candidates: Macron, Le Pen and Fillon. Even with Fillon being charged with creating fake jobs and being put under formal investigation. The right-wing candidate, Le Pen, has stated her attempt to take France out of the EU following Brexit. Market concerns, over President Trump’s policies and the French presidential election, are resulting in Investors turning to safe havens. The weakening of USD has also pushed gold prices up. Spot gold hit a 3-week high of 1251.20, testing a significant resistance level at 1250 on Wednesday evening. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept rates unchanged at 1.75% which was in line with expectations. NZD/USD remains unchanged as the RBNZ stated that “monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period because the global economic uncertainties remain substantial and there is no hurry to alter policies”. Today will see the release of UK retail sales for February at 09:30 GMT. This is followed by US initial jobless claims (for the week ending March 10) at 12:30 GMT, Yellen’s speech at 12:45 GMT and US new home sales for February at 14:00 GMT. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (a FOMC voting member) will make a speech at 16:30 GMT followed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (a FOMC voting member) at 23:00 GMT.

23 марта, 12:11

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация двух важных показателей

В четверг, 23 марта, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация двух важных макроэкономических показателей. Так, в 15:30 МСК станет известно количество первичных обращений за пособиями по безработице за минувшую неделю. Согласно прогнозам, показатель составил 240000 после 241000 неделей ранее. В 17:00 МСК выйдут данные по продажам нового жилья за февраль. Ожидается, что показатель составил 0,565 млн по сравнению с 0,555 млн в январе. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить недельное изменение запасов природного газа, а также индекс деловой активности в промышленности ФРБ Канзаса. Кроме того, в 15:00 МСК выступит глава ФРС Джанет Йеллен, а в 19:00 МСК состоится выступление главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари. В календаре корпоративных отчетностей значатся Gamestop, KB Home и Micron Technology, которые представят свои финансовые результаты после закрытия рынка.

23 марта, 10:29

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 09:15 GMT Заместитель губернатора Банка Англии по монетарной политике Бен Броадбент выступит с речью В 12:45 GMT Председатель совета управляющих ФРС Джанет Йеллен выступит с речью В 15:00 GMT Член исполнительного совета ЕЦБ Сабине Лаутеншлегер выступит с речью В 16:30 GMT Член FOMC Нил Кашкари выступит с речью В 17:00 GMT Член правления НБШ Андреа Мехлер выступит с речью В 17:00 GMT Альтернативный член правления НБШ Дюве Мосер выступит с речью В 23:00 GMT Член FOMC Роберт Каплан выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

22 марта, 09:05

S&P 500 впервые за последние 109 сессий снизился более чем на 1%

Во вторник, 21 марта, фондовый рынок Соединенных Штатов Америки продемонстрировал отрицательную динамику по итогам торговой сессии в связи с тем, что администрация Дональда Трампа медлит с оглашением налоговой реформы. Также стоит отметить, что индекс S&P 500 прервал серию из 109 торговых сессий без коррекции более чем на 1%. Из важной макроэкономической статистики вчера был опубликован дефицит счета текущих операций, который в четвертом квартале составил $112,4 млрд по сравнению со $116 млрд в третьем квартале. Аналитики прогнозировали, что дефицит составит $128,2 млрд. Также вчера состоялись выступления ряда представителей ФРС, в частности, Нила Кашкари, Эстер Джордж и Лоретты Местер, но в целом все комментарии оказались нейтральными и не содержали намеков на дальнейшие действия ФРС относительно повышения процентной ставки. По итогам сессии индикатор

21 марта, 18:57

Fed's Kashkari Responds To Zero Hedge: "A Market Drop Is Unlikely To Trigger A Crisis"

Former Goldmanite and current Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari, conducted another #AskNeel session on Twitter where the dovish FOMC voter (he was the only one to dissent in last week's rate hike decision) received numerous question. Among them was the following one from Zero Hedge: .@neelkashkari You recently admitted the Fed has a "third mandate." What is the biggest S&P drop the Fed will accept before intervening? — zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 21, 2017 His response: Don't care about stock market fall itself. Care abt potential financial instability. Stock market drop unlikely to trigger crisis. #AskNeel https://t.co/Cv7ENuJuqU — Neel Kashkari (@neelkashkari) March 21, 2017 At this point we would like to "timestamp" Kashkari's claim that a "stock market drop is unlikely to trigger a crisis" It was not clear just how the Fed president separates a market crash from "financial instability", but Kashkari's response that the Fed is not concerned about the level of the S&P500, and instead is more focused on comprehensive market stability, is not being taken well by the market which has continued to sell off as Kashkari responds to further questions, among which the following exchanges: In response to a question about rising inflation, Kashkari said he would tolerate 2.3% inflation for as long as U.S. has had below-target inflation, “if we really believe 2% is a target. That is what a target means" and adds that “Not sure if my colleagues wld really buy into that however." We wonder how that question would look like if instead 2.3% inflation one used 3.6%, which is the current true level of inflation according to PriceStats. At least the Fed has been polite enough to advise America it will tolerate a material "overshoot" in its inflation target. When asked about the two latest rate increases, he said that “data didn’t support a hike. Data basically hasn’t changed. Moving sideways rather than toward dual mandate.” He also said that he would like to see plan on balance sheet normalization soon, adding: “I would prefer to see it before we increase the federal funds rate again” and added that the balance sheet “needs to grow as economy and demand for dollars grows. We will shrink but not to 2006 levels.” In shor, Kashkarhi - who allegedly does not care about the level of the  S&P500 - is willing to risk a market crash and a Fed balance sheet-driven bond tantrum. Or, to paraphrase Richard Breslow, "The Fed Is Making This Up As They Go Along""

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21 марта, 18:40

110-Day Streak Is Over - S&P Drops 1% For First Time Since October

The S&P 500 is down over 1% this morning. While in the old normal that would be nothing much to note, in the new normal, this is the biggest drop since October 11th!   The 110-day streak without a 1% drop is over... this was the longest streak since May 1995 Below is a look at historical streaks of trading days without a 1%+ decline going back to 1928: VIX topped 12.5 for the first time since february and is breaking towards its 100DMA...   And for those expecting The Fed to step in and save the day... Don't hold your breath! Don't care about stock market fall itself. Care abt potential financial instability. Stock market drop unlikely to trigger crisis. #AskNeel https://t.co/Cv7ENuJuqU — Neel Kashkari (@neelkashkari) March 21, 2017 And sure enough

21 марта, 16:28

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют позитивную динамику

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,374.25 (+0.17%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 0.21% до уровня 5,429.75. Внешний фон нейтральный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют смешанную динамику. Nikkei 19,455.88 -65.71 -0.34% Hang Seng 24,593.12 +91.13 +0.37% Shanghai 3,262.20 +11.39 +0.35% FTSE 7,414.66 -15.15 -0.20% CAC 5,037.78 +25.62 +0.51% DAX 12,070.04 +17.14 +0.14% Майские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $49.05 за баррель (+0.29%) Золото торгуется по $1,232.50 за унцию (-0.12%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют позитивную динамику на фоне отскока нефтяных котировок и в преддверии выступлений представителей ФРС, а именно Джордж и Местер, чьи комментарии будут тщательно анализироваться на предмет сигналов о темпах повышения процентных ставок в дальнейшем. Напомним, вчерашние выступления представителей ФРС показали, что среди членов FOMC существуют разногласия относительно темпов повышения ставок в текущем году. Так, глава ФРБ Чикаго Эванс сообщил, что в этом году ФРС может начать повышать процентные ставки быстрее на фоне позитивных перспектив экономики. "Если перспективы роста экономики улучшатся, а уверенность в росте инфляции укрепится, три повышения ставок в этом году вполне возможны", - отметил Эванс. Также он добавил, что сейчас экономика находится на верном пути, рынок труда очень силен, а инфляция движется к целевому уровню ФРС в 2%, и данные факторы являются предпосылками для роста процентной ставки. В то же время его коллега из ФБР Миннеаполис Нил Кашкари отметил, что поскольку инфляция сейчас ниже 2% и сохраняется неясность касаемо слабости рынка есть предпосылки для более осторожного повышения ставок. Инвесторы также анализируют данные Министерства торговли, которые показали, что отрицательное сальдо платежного баланса США сократилось до $112.4 млрд. в четвертом квартале 2016 года с $116 млрд. в третьем квартале. Экономисты прогнозировали дефицит на уровне $128.3 млрд. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. После закрытия торговой сессии ожидается публикация квартальной отчетности FedEx (FDX) и Nike (NKE).Источник: FxTeam

21 марта, 12:18

Brexit будет запущен 29 марта

Влияние на рынок:2Devata TsengВчера была окончательна утверждена дата официального старта процедуры Brexit.Премьер-министр Британии Тереза Мэй обратиться к 50 статье Лиссабонского договора в среду 29 марта, начав тем самым двухлетний процесс переговоров по выходу из состава ЕС. Утвержденная дата соответствует ее плану по началу “процесса развода” к концу марта.Тереза Мэй официальным письмом уведомит председателя Европейского Совета Дональда Туска в следующую среду. Туск, как ожидается, представит странам ЕС проект руководящих принципов Brexit в течение 48 часов после обращения к 50 статье. Государства-члены, как ожидается, проведут саммит Brexit в течение 4-6 недель.Следом за этими новостями фунт падал против доллара и евро. В среду пара GBP/USD просела примерно на 100 пунктов с максимального значения за 3 недели на уровне 1.2435, пробив уровень поддержки на 1.2400 и внутридневной минимум на 1.2334. Этим утром цена отскочила после тестирования уровня поддержки на 1.2340.Сегодня в 09:30 GMT выйдет серия данных по британской инфляции за февраль. Вероятно, они повлияют на динамику фунта и кроссов с валютой.На этой неделе запланированы выступления 9 президентов ФРС и членов FOMC по следующему графику:Вторник 21 марта 10:00 – 11:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка, постоянный член Федерального комитета открытого рынка (FOMC) с правом голоса Уильям Дадли 16:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Канзаса Истер Джордж 22:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Кливленда, член FOMC Местер Четверг 23 марта 12:00 GMT Председатель ФРБ Йеллен 18:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса, член FOMC с правом голоса Нил Кашкари 23:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Далласа, голосующий член FOMC Роберт Каплан Пятница 24 марта 12:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Чикаго, голосующий член FOMC Чарльз Эванс 13:05 GMT Президент ФРБ Сент-Луиса, голосующий член FOMC Джеймс Буллард 14:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка, член FOMC с постоянным правом голоса Уильям Дадли Президент ФРБ Чикаго Эванс заявил в понедельник, что “экономика на правильном пути”, и ФРС на пути ещё двух повышений ставки в этом году. При ускорении инфляции, возможны четыре повышения. Действия администрации Трампа и фискальная политика могут повлиять на перспективы дальнейшего повышения ставок. Эта неделя относительно свободная в контексте релизов данных. Таким образом, ястребиные / голубиные заявления президентов ФРС могут стать основным драйвером динамики доллара. Этим утром индекс доллара торгуется ниже важного уровня на 100.00. Ястребы ФРС Джордж и Местер, вероятно, усилят свою риторику сегодня. Несмотря на это, нисходящее давление на доллар все еще сильно.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/21032017-brexit-budet-zapushhen-29-marta/ ..Источник: FxTeam

21 марта, 12:03

Brexit to be Triggered on March 29

The date to officially start the Brexit procedure was finally confirmed yesterday. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. The timetable is in line with her plan to begin “divorce proceedings” by the end of March. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk, with a letter next Wednesday. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s 27 member states, within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. The member states are expected to hold a Brexit summit within 4-6 weeks. Following the news, GBP dropped against USD and EUR. On Monday, GBPUSD fell approximately 100 points from a 3-week high of 1.2435, breaking a support level at 1.2400, hitting the intra-day low of 1.2334. This morning the price has rebounded after testing the support line at 1.2340. Today, at 9:30 GMT, we will see the release of a series of UK inflation data for February. It will likely affect the strength of GBP and GBP crosses. There are 9 Fed presidents and FOMC members scheduled to have a speech this week per the following schedule: Tuesday March 21 10:00 – 11:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley 16:00 GMT Kansas Fed President, Esther George 22:00 GMT Cleveland Fed President, a FOMC member, Mester Thursday March 23 12:00 GMT The Fed Chair Yellen 18:00 GMT Minneapolis Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Neel Kashkari 23:00 GMT Dallas Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Robert Kaplan Friday March 24 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, a FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley Chicago Fed President Evans stated on Monday that “the economy is on a good course”, with the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. If inflation picks up, four consecutive rate hikes could be possible. President Trump’s administration and fiscal policy would add to further rate hikes. This week is relatively light on economic data releases. Therefore, the Fed presidents’ prospective hawkish / dovish comments are likely to become the major driver of USD moves. This morning, the USD index is trading below the significant level at 100.00. The Fed hawks, George and Mester, will likely make more hawkish comments today. Regardless, downward pressure on USD is still heavy.

10 ноября 2015, 20:59

Бывший банкир Goldman Sachs и PIMCO вошел в ФРС США

Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.