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26 ноября, 01:00

Crisis prevention

One US Federal Reserve bank official, Neel Kashkari, wants his country's banks to keep much higher cash reserves, to reduce the chances of another major financial crisis.

18 ноября, 22:01

President Trump: To Jumpstart the U.S. Economy, Please Honor Your Promise to Break Up the Big Banks!

Donald Trump and the Republican Platform Called for Restoring Glass-Steagall and Breaking Up the Too Big to Fails The Republican platform under Donald Trump called for restoring the Glass-Steagall separation between traditional depository banking and speculative investment banking.  Trump himself has called for it. This would lead to the break up of the giant banks. The New York Times explains: The Republican Party platform calls for breaking up the large banks by restoring the New Deal-era Glass-Steagall Act, which required a separation of investment from commercial banking. The People Want Them Broken Up As Minneapolis Fed President Kaskari points out, a lot of the populist anger which got Donald Trump elected is based on allowing the too big to fail banks to survive: Mr. Kashkari said he traced some of the nation’s current political anger and polarization to how the government responded to the financial crisis — which allowed large banks to survive while thousands of Americans struggled to keep their homes and find new jobs.   “The bailouts violated a core belief that has been handed down from generation to generation in our society that if you take a risk you bear the rewards and consequences of that risk,” he said. “We had to tear that up during the crisis because the biggest banks were going to fail and bring down the U.S. economy. And when you violate the core beliefs of society it does lead to anger and a feeling that this wasn’t fair.” Most Americans opposed the bailouts of the giant banks, and want them broken up. Indeed, the IMF has warned that bank bailouts were so unpopular, that a revolution could occur if more bailouts were given. So Do Economists and Financial Experts Economists and financial experts from across the political spectrum agree that we’ve got to rein in the “too big to fail” banks. Why do so many top bankers, economists, financial experts and politicians say that the big banks should be broken up? Because they’re no longer acting like banks, and are destroying the economy. The best way to jumpstart the economy would be to restore Glass-Steagall and break up the bloated banks. Here’s a sample of economists and financial experts calling for the too big to fails to be broken up or dramatically reined in: Current chair of the Federal reserve, Janet Yellen (and see this) Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker Current President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis – who oversaw the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability – Neel Kashkari Former Secretary of the Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson Former Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich Current Vice Chair and director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – and former 20-year President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Thomas Hoenig (and see this) Nobel prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz Nobel prize-winning economist, Ed Prescott Nobel prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman Chief Stability Officer at the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane (and see this and this) Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York economist and Salomon Brothers vice chairman, Henry Kaufman Dean and professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School, and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, R. Glenn Hubbard Former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, Simon Johnson (and see this) Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher (and see this) President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard Deputy Treasury Secretary, Neal S. Wolin The Congressional panel overseeing the bailout (and see this) The former head of the FDIC, Sheila Bair The head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King The Bank of International Settlements (the “Central Banks’ Central Bank”) The International Monetary Fund The leading monetary economist and co-author with Milton Friedman of the leading treatise on the Great Depression, Anna Schwartz Economics professor and senior regulator during the S & L crisis, William K. Black Leading British economist, John Kay Economics professor, Nouriel Roubini Economist, Marc Faber Professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the Chicago Booth School of Business, Luigi Zingales Economics professor, Thomas F. Cooley Economist Dean Baker Economist Arnold Kling Chairman of the Commons Treasury, John McFall The Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Harvey Rosenblum Director, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn, and Professor of Economics, University of Bonn, Martin Hellwig And the head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank – and former Goldman Sachs chief economist – William Dudley says that we should not tolerate a financial system in which certain financial institutions are deemed to be too big to fail. Federal Reserve Board governor Daniel Tarullo also backs a cap on the size of banks, and Former Treasury secretary under Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Nicolas Brady, says that we need to put a cap on leverage. Top Bankers Call for Big Banks to Be Broken Up While you might assume that bankers themselves don’t want the giant banks to be broken up, many are in fact calling for a break up, including: Former Citi CEO Sandy Weill Former Citi CEO John Reed Former Citi chairman Richard Parsons Former Merrill Lynch chairman and CEO David Komansky Former Morgan Stanley CEO Philip Purcell Former managing director of Goldman Sachs – and head of the international analytics group at Bear Stearns in London- Nomi Prins Numerous other bankers within the mega-banks (see this, for example) Founder and chairman of Signature Bank, Scott Shay Former Natwest and Schroders investment banker, Philip Augar The President of the Independent Community Bankers of America, Camden Fine

17 ноября, 18:48

Banks and “too big to fail”: Kash call

Print section Print Rubric:  A veteran of the financial crisis says banks need much more capital Print Headline:  Kash call Print Fly Title:  Banks and “too big to fail” UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  The new nationalism Fly Title:  Banks and “too big to fail” Location:  NEW YORK Main image:  20161119_fnp004.jpg SINCE Donald Trump won the election, American bank shares have surged on traders’ hopes of a bonfire of financial regulations. So a proposal from Neel Kashkari, head of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, vastly to increase capital requirements looks ill-timed. On the other hand, the plan mimics the direction—if not the extent—of one backed by congressional Republicans. Mr Kashkari is an experienced financial firefighter. An alumnus of Goldman Sachs, best-connected of investment ...

17 ноября, 18:48

Banks and “too big to fail”: Kash call

Print section Print Rubric:  A veteran of the financial crisis says banks need much more capital Print Headline:  Kash call Print Fly Title:  Banks and “too big to fail” UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  The new nationalism Fly Title:  Banks and “too big to fail” Location:  NEW YORK Main image:  20161119_fnp004.jpg SINCE Donald Trump won the election, American bank shares have surged on traders’ hopes of a bonfire of financial regulations. So a proposal from Neel Kashkari, head of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, vastly to increase capital requirements looks ill-timed. On the other hand, the plan mimics the direction—if not the extent—of one backed by congressional Republicans. Mr Kashkari is an experienced financial firefighter. An alumnus of Goldman Sachs, best-connected of investment ...

17 ноября, 15:44

Frontrunning: November 17

Dollar halts charge as bashed bonds steady (Reuters) BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan (BBG) Trump Flouts Traditions Heading Into an Office Defined by Them (BBG) Mr. Hedge Fund Goes to Washington, Looking for Ally in Trump (BBG) Donald Trump’s Son-in-Law, Jared Kushner, Could Get Key White House Role (WSJ) U.S. panel urges ban on China state firms buying U.S. companies (Reuters) Why Bond Vigilantes Are Stirring in Age of Trump: QuickTake Q&A (BBG) AT&T Deal to Test Business Climate Under Trump (WSJ) Theranos Whistleblower Shook the Company—And His Family (WSJ) Republicans Now Control Record Number of State Legislative Chambers (CNSNews) Mexico central bank may deliver big rate hike after peso's Trump tumble (Reuters) The Strange Consequences of India’s Banknote Ban (BBG) Yellen Will Talk Trump in Thursday's Testimony (BBG) Yellen Likely to Be Questioned on Impact of Election (WSJ) The NSA’s Spy Hub in New York, Hidden in Plain Sight (Intercept) Apple Wants Cutting-Edge iPhone Screens, But Most Suppliers Aren’t Ready  (BBG) Deutsche Bank could seek repayment of manager bonuses: sources (Reuters) Brazil arrests former Rio governor in corruption probe: police (Reuters) China's interference in Hong Kong reaching alarming levels: U.S. congressional panel (Reuters) Russia starts blocking LinkedIn website after court ruling (Reuters) Philippines' Duterte says may follow Russia's withdrawal from 'useless' ICC (Reuters) EU delays ChemChina/Syngenta merger decision to March 29 (Reuters) Merkel expected to say on Sunday if she'll run for office in 2017 (Reuters) U.S. opens door to oil exports after year of pressure (Reuters)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Donald Trump's son-in-law, who became a close adviser in the presidential campaign, is likely to take a top White House job, people familiar with the presidential transition say. http://on.wsj.com/2f22ucL - Tyler Shultz says he wanted to shield the reputation of former Secretary of State George Shultz, a Theranos director and his grandfather. His efforts opened a rift in the family. http://on.wsj.com/2fXhYiS - President-elect Donald Trump is making overtures to Democrats as his transition efforts ramp up, meeting with New York Mayor Bill de Blasio and signaling support for a public-works building program similar to one his partisan opponents have long favored. http://on.wsj.com/2eHGKYn - China's currency dropped to the lowest level in eight years Wednesday, extending a rapid decline over the course of a few days and demonstrating what officials and analysts say is the government's increasing tolerance of a cheaper yuan as it combats a lagging economy and growing asset bubbles. http://on.wsj.com/2fVnpjJ - Businesses will watch to see if phone giant AT&T Inc can push its merger with Time Warner Inc through a still-undefined presidency. Cabinet appointments will help determine the outcome. http://on.wsj.com/2eGzOLe - The Minnesota police officer who fatally shot a legally armed black motorist during a traffic stop in a Twin Cities suburb has been charged with second-degree manslaughter, Ramsey County Attorney John Choi said Wednesday. http://on.wsj.com/2ghkq8i - Facebook Inc said it has uncovered several more flawed measurements related to how consumers interact with content, raising more questions about the metrics marketers lean on to decide whether to buy ads on the social media network. http://on.wsj.com/2ggxPxx   FT Saudi Arabia is set to disclose how much crude lies beneath the desert kingdom's sands as it prepares to sell shares in Saudi Aramco. Japanese internet retailer Rakuten Inc signed a new four-year deal with Barcelona worth at least 220 million euros ($235.40 million), sealing one of the world's largest football shirt sponsorships. Rio Tinto Plc's former head of energy and mineral division Alan Davies said he "has been left with no option but to take the strongest possible legal action in response" to his dismissal. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc warned there were challenging conditions ahead for its marine and industrial engine businesses. However, the company said it was on track to meet profit expectations for this year.   NYT - Congressional Democrats, divided and struggling for a path from the electoral wilderness, are constructing an agenda to align with many proposals of President-elect Donald Trump that put him at odds with his own party. http://nyti.ms/2fyMHWX - An emotional Hillary Clinton on Wednesday asked her supporters not to lose heart after a crushing election loss and to continue working for a better country. http://nyti.ms/2fyH0be - President-elect Donald Trump said his transition was not in disarray, assailing news media reports about firings and infighting and insisting in an early-morning Twitter burst that everything was going "so smoothly". http://nyti.ms/2fyMLpw - Over the past few months, a laid-off Wal-Mart employee named Wang Shishu, has helped organize a national movement in China against the retail giant. http://nyti.ms/2fyOniO - The federal authorities will announce a roughly $264 million settlement with the JP Morgan Chase and its Hong Kong subsidiary, according to people briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. tp://nyti.ms/2fyG7zq - Wall Street banks are still too big to fail, and the hundreds of thousands of pages of regulations created in the eight years since the crisis are not adequate protection against another financial shock, says Neel Kashkari of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. http://nyti.ms/2fyOZp1   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Bombardier Inc raised $1.4 billion in its first return to the bond market in 21 months, refinancing some debt and buying more time for its turnaround plan. https://tgam.ca/2fzkaQP ** The Bank of Canada says it won't necessarily move in lockstep with the Federal Reserve if the U.S. central bank moves to hike its key interest rate next month, as widely expected. https://tgam.ca/2fzoJdT ** A committee of Performance Sports Group Ltd's shareholders has filed a legal objection to a proposed auction of the insolvent company's assets, arguing the bidding structure makes it too hard for anyone to compete with an offer tabled by a group led by Sagard Capital Partners LP. https://tgam.ca/2fzkUW1 ** Finance Minister Bill Morneau says Canada is ready to discuss difficult trade issues with the new U.S. administration, including softwood lumber and livestock, and he is confident of finding a "win-win" solution. https://tgam.ca/2fzmWW6 NATIONAL POST ** The International Energy Agency's latest World Energy Outlook expects Canadian output to grow to 6.1 million bpd by 2040 if governments stick to their Paris agreement pledges - but that is 1.5 million bpd lower than the IEA's "Current Policies Scenario", which assumes there are no new international policy measures to combat climate change. http://bit.ly/2fzlmDH ** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was foolish to signal his willingness to re-negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, former U.S. senator and Donald Trump insider Rick Santorum said on Wednesday. http://natpo.st/2fzeiHn ** Canada and Cuba are on a good footing to enhance an already-good relationship with a visit to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau this week, say experts, despite uncertainty around the policy of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. http://natpo.st/2fzlfbg   Britain The Times * Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Warren East, whose company's shares have fallen 27 percent since April last year, said to investors that after thousands of job cuts, including hundreds in senior management, he is focusing his attention on the company's future strategy. http://bit.ly/2f22pWm * UK's Financial Conduct Authority said Wednesday that they would put safeguards in place before launching a new savings product, Lifetime Isas, for the under-40s just days after it was dubbed as 'a mis-selling scandal waiting to happen.' http://bit.ly/2f260UB The Guardian * Labour party parliamentarian Frank Field, also the chairman of the House of Commons work and pensions select committee, has asked HM Revenue & Customs for an immediate probe into tax avoidance scheme used by recruitment agencies that is depriving the taxpayer of "hundreds of millions" of pounds. http://bit.ly/2f2079Z * Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc could face a settlement of more than $12 billion in a decade old mis-selling scandal in the United States, said the UK Financial Investments, which controls the taxpayer's stake in RBS, to the Treasury Select Committee. http://bit.ly/2f1XTXX The Telegraph * Rio Tinto Plc has fired two executives amid an investigation over illegal payments of $10.5 million to a consultant related to an iron ore project in Guinea. http://bit.ly/2f1YKYT * Brexit is unlikely to lead to a sudden decline in London's status as one of the leading centres for the global capital markets, Barclays Plc Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley has predicted. http://bit.ly/2f21uVT Sky News * Ralf Speth, chief executive of Britain's biggest car maker Jaguar Land Rover Ltd, has said that the company would have to "see the facts" before deciding whether to continue manufacturing in the United Kingdom. http://bit.ly/2f1WD78 * Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced closure of its Glasgow operation with the loss of 380 jobs as a new report from the International Energy Agency warns of a "boom/bust" cycle in the oil industry. http://bit.ly/2f1U1pT The Independent * The Treasury said that the Bank of England has been conferred formal powers to control lending in the fast-growing buy-to-let mortgage market. http://ind.pn/2f1W5hR * The United Kingdom's unemployment rate has come down to 4.8 percent in September, from 4.9 percent previously, the lowest since the summer of 2005, according to a report from the Office for National Statistics. http://ind.pn/2f1ZQUo  

16 ноября, 19:15

Fed's Kashkari Releases Plan To End "Too Big To Fail", Compares Banks To Terrorists

In the latest reminder that 7 years after the financial crisis, the US banking system still remains a systemic risk, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari today released four-step plan to end too-big-to-fail problem. In his speech to the economic club of New York, the former Goldman banker said that while significant progress has been made to strengthen U.S. financial system, biggest banks continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to our economy. Under the “Minneapolis Plan,” there would be “fewer mega banks,” community banks would thrive, and mid-sized banks would make up larger share of system. A summary of the proposed Fed plan argues that large banks already under shareholder pressure to reorganize will face increased pressure to consider breaking themselves up. The plan, which will naturally be ignored by the banks themselves and the authorities, is culmination of efforts since February that brought together experts on financial crises and bank regulation, such as former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ex-central bankers Roger Ferguson and Randall Kroszner according to Bloomberg. Largest banks “refused to participate” for fear their presence would be viewed as acknowledgment that TBTF problem exists. The first two steps would be to increase capital requirements for banks with assets of more than $250b to 23.5% of risk- weighted assets, and to have Treasury secretary either certify that large banks are no longer systemically important or subject those institutions to increases in capital requirements of as much as 38% over time. Additionally, the minneapolis Fed plan would only count common equity as capital. The threat of massive increases in capital will provide strong incentives for largest banks to restructure so that they are no longer systemically important. The proposed approach is similar to those regulators have taken with nuclear power plants, imposing such tight restrictions so as to minimize risk of failure. The other two steps would be to impose tax on borrowings of shadow banks with assets over $50b, and reducing regulatory burden on community banks. Kashkari defended his plan by saying that most companies outside financial services industry have much bigger buffers than banks. Under his plan, which requires bigger buffers, “some banks would probably have business models that don’t work. They probably already have business models that don’t work,” he says, adding: “That’s not our problem.” It is however, the banks' problem, and is another reason why the plan will be soundly ignored. "My hope is that there’s interest on both sides of the aisle for this type of work and analysis." Wrong. Undeterred, Kashkari went on to say that his plan “would require legislation” and in case there was confusion, he said that “what we are proposing is a major restructuring of our financial sector." Too bad such a "restructuring" will not take place until after the next crisis. The plan's four proposed steps are the following: Step 1. Dramatically increase common equity capital, substantially reducing the chance of bailouts   We will require covered banks to issue common equity equal to 23.5 percent of risk-weighted assets, with a corresponding leverage ratio of 15 percent. This level of capital nearly maximizes the net benefits to society from higher capital levels. This first step substantially reduces the chance of public bailouts relative to current regulations from 67 percent to 39 percent. This substantial improvement in safety comes at a relatively low cost of gross domestic product (GDP). Covered banks will have five years to come into compliance with this requirement   Step 2. Call on the U.S. Treasury Secretary to certify that covered banks are no longer systemically important, or else subject those banks to extraordinary increases in capital requirements, leading many to fundamentally restructure themselves   Once the new 23.5 percent capital standard has been implemented, we will call on the Treasury Secretary to certify that each covered bank is no longer systemically important. Our proposal gives the Treasury Secretary the discretion to make this determination so that it can rely on the best information and analysis available. We suggest that the Treasury start by reviewing existing metrics of systemic risk used to determine current GSIB surcharges. The Treasury will also have the authority to look beyond covered banks in making its determination. If the Treasury refuses to certify that a covered bank is no longer systemically important, that bank will automatically face increasing common equity capital requirements, an additional 5 percent of risk-weighted assets per year. This process will begin five years after enactment of the Minneapolis Plan. The bank’s capital requirements will continue increasing either until the Treasury certifies it as no longer systemically important or until the bank’s capital reaches 38 percent, the level of capital that reduces the 100-year chance of a crisis below 10 percent.   Step 2 is a critical step for ending TBTF. Under the current regulatory structure, there is no explicit timeline for ending TBTF, and regulators never have to formally certify that large banks and shadow banks are no longer systemically important. Instead, banks and designated nonbank financial firms can continue to operate under their explicit or implicit status as TBTF institutions potentially indefinitely. The Minneapolis Plan reverses this approach and gives the Treasury Secretary a new mandate with a hard deadline. Five years after enactment of the Minneapolis Plan, the Treasury either will certify that large banks are no longer systemically important or those banks will face extraordinary increases in equity capital requirements.   We believe that these automatic increases in capital requirements will lead banks to restructure themselves such that their failure will not pose the spillovers that they do today and lead to future bailouts. We chose the capital level that reduces the probability of a bailout in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to 10 percent or below while keeping total costs below benefits. This level of capital is appropriate for the largest banks that remain systemically important, as their failure alone could bring down the banking system.   The only banks that could remain systemically important after the Minneapolis Plan has been fully implemented would have 38 percent common equity capital, with a risk of failure that is exceptionally low. This is a similar approach regulators have taken with nuclear power plants: While not risk free, they are so highly regulated that the risks of failure are effectively minimized. Step 2 of the Minneapolis Plan reduces the chance of future bailouts to 9 percent over 100 years.   Step 3. Prevent future TBTF problems in the shadow financial sector through a shadow banking tax on leverage   We discourage the movement of activity from the banking to shadow banking sector by levying a shadow bank tax. The tax equalizes the funding costs between the two sectors. The tax will have two rates. To equalize funding costs with a 23.5 minimum equity requirement, we would levy a tax on shadow bank borrowing of 1.2 percent. This tax rate would apply to shadow banks that do not pose systemic risk as judged by the Treasury Secretary. A tax rate equal to 2.2 percent would apply to the shadow banks that the Treasury refuses to certify as not systemically important. Thus, the shadow bank tax regime mirrors our two-tier capital regime. These taxes should reduce the incentive to move banking activity from highly capitalized large banks to less-regulated firms that are not subject to such stringent capital requirements. Nonbank financial firms that fund their activities with equity do not pay the tax. Shadow banks will have five years from enactment of the Minneapolis Plan before they begin paying the shadow bank tax. The Treasury Secretary will start making certifications as to the systemic importance of shadow banks at that point. Here, too, we grant the Treasury discretion to look across all nonbank financial firms in its certification process.   Step 4. Reduce unnecessary regulatory burden on community banks   Ending TBTF means creating a regulatory system that maximizes the benefits from supervision and regulation while minimizing the costs. The final step of the Minneapolis Plan would allow the government to reform its current supervision and regulation of community banks to a system that is simpler and less burdensome while maintaining its ability to identify and address bank risk-taking that threatens solvency. * * * One interesting section lays out the MN Fed's calculation of a probability of bailout in the next 100 years: Alongside this, Kashkari lays out not only the change of a bailout in the next 100 years, but the overall cost of this as a percentage of GDP. We have developed a framework for assessing safety and costs. The first column says “Chance of a Bailout in the Next 100 Years.” The IMF has compiled a database of financial crises around the world that we use to assess how frequently financial crises have happened in the past and what regulations were in place when those crises happened. Fortunately, financial crises are infrequent events, but that makes them hard to predict, like terrorist events or earthquakes. This IMF database contains the best data available to look at the history of financial crises and make informed estimates about their future likelihood. We look at a 100-year time horizon because the Great Depression took place in the 1930s and the recent financial crisis in 2008, approximately 80 years later. Aiming to prevent financial crises over a 100-year time horizon seems like a reasonable goal, given how devastating crises are when they hit.   On the right side of the table, we list costs. Here we calculate the present value of future costs, using a similar method as do regulators around the world.   We set as a baseline the capital regulations that existed in 2007, before the onset of the recent financial crisis. An examination of the IMF database of crises and the regulations that existed in 2007 implies an 84 percent chance of a crisis in the following 100 years. Obviously, the crisis in fact happened the next year. The database offers a view of how likely crises are to happen, not when exactly they will happen. In terms of costs, we set the 2007 regulations as a baseline, so we assume those costs are zero for comparison purposes.   Next we look at the current capital regulations, which have increased capital requirements relative to 2007. As you can see from the table, the probability of a future financial crisis has been reduced, from 84 percent to 67 percent over the next 100 years. That is a modest improvement in safety at a cost of 11 percent of GDP. Is 11 percent of GDP a lot or a little?   Here we see that the Bank for International Settlements’ consensus estimate for the typical cost of a banking crisis is 158 percent of GDP, which for the U.S. economy equals roughly $28 trillion. This is the present value of the long-term effects of a banking crisis. As we have seen since the recent crisis, the U.S. economy has been growing much more slowly than had been previously expected. These long-term effects are fairly typical for financial crises, which as you can see, are extraordinarily costly for society. Against that enormous cost, 11 percent of GDP seems to me to be a small price to pay for a modest increase in safety. * * * Ultimately, the goal of Minneapolis Plan is to "educate public and elected representatives about options." Amusingly, in doing so Kashkari ends up comparing American banks to terrorists: One useful analogy that helps highlight the trade-off of costs and benefits is the risk of terrorism. Intuitively, the public understands that we as a society cannot eliminate all risk of a future terrorist attack. It is simply impossible to make that risk zero. And the public intuitively understands that increased physical safety isn’t free. There are costs associated with hiring additional law enforcement officers, for example, or installing more metal detectors. Since we cannot eliminate all risk, we have to decide how much safety we want and what price we are willing to pay for that safety. The same is true for financial crises. We cannot make the risk zero, and safety isn’t free. Regulations can make the financial system safer, but they come with costs of potentially slower economic growth. Ultimately, the public has to decide how much safety they want in order to protect society from future financial crises and what price they are willing to pay for that safety. An apt analogy, if perhaps not one the banks will be particularly delighted with. Kashkari's full speech can be found here, while readers can access the full 53 page plan at the following URL.

16 ноября, 14:43

Global Bonds Plunge As "Trumpflation" Rally Returns, Dollar Jumps

After taking a one day breather, the "Trumpflation" Rally returned with a vengeance as global government bonds tumbled and the dollar rose on renewed speculation the economic outlook is strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike in December (odds are now 94%). Asian shares rose, industrial metals and crude oil fell, European shares and US equity futures were pressured. As reported last night, the latest bond selloff started in Japan where JGB futures slid after a BOJ buying operation was poorly received, and yields on both the 2Y and 5Y rose to or above the BOJ's -0.1% interest rate. 10 year Japanese yields have edged back above zero intra-day for the first time since September 21st and the market will at some stage focus on whether the BoJ will defend the zero level, especially if the global yield sell-off gathers pace over the coming weeks and months. It would be a strange decision to abandon the new policy so soon after announcing it so assuming global yields remain elevated they may be forced to buy more JGBs than they thought when the new scheme was announced. As DB's Jim Reid observes, if the BoJ sticks to defending zero in a world where the US is likely to increase fiscal spending then you could make an argument that there is full blown helicopter money except that the BoJ is flying the copter over the US and may be about to become the new US government’s best friend. Without them, and without the ECB, it might be that Trump would be less able to spend freely on the fiscal side as yields would be less supported globally. Certainly one way to think of in our opinion. The selling shifted over to Portuguese and Italian debt which led declines in Europe, while Treasuries also fell. Russia’s ruble lost the most among emerging-market currencies as the dollar rallied. Crude oil reversed an earlier gain with U.S. stockpiles forecast to increase and optimism waning that OPEC’s latest push for a production-cutting deal will pay off. Zinc fell from a six-year high as industrial metals sank. European shares advanced for a third day, helped by technology and telecommunications companies.rate. As even Bloomberg notes, the "Trumpflation" move has "defied expectations" and forced Wall Street to make a complete U-turn on its forecasts. While analysts spent early November warning a Trump administration would hurt economic outlook and slow the pace of rate increases, his election has instead made Fed action a near certainty. The odds of an increase in interest rates by December have risen to about a 94 percent probability, the highest level this year, from 68 percent at the start of November, on speculation the Republican’s policies will boost inflation. "The narrative on the dollar is strong," said Simon Smith, chief economist at FXPro. "A move higher in interest rates next month is now a near dead cert, with the implied path for rates next year also moving higher and providing further support for the dollar." “The inflation story is still in play,” said Birgit Figge, a fixed-income strategist at DZ Bank AG in Frankfurt. “The market is expecting an interest-rate hike in December, and there is no fundamental reason for the Fed” to disappoint, she said. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said there’s a chance the U.S. economy could get a medium-term boost if Trump increases infrastructure spending and tax reforms. The overnight session in stocks has been mostly subdued, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2 percent, paring gains of as much as 0.6 percent. Nokia Oyj rebounded from a three-day losing streak, pacing technology stocks higher. Bayer AG sank 1.6 percent, dragging chemical companies to the worst performance on the Stoxx 600, after issuing 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) of convertible bonds. Among stocks moving on corporate news, Wirecard AG, a German payments provider, gained 6.1 percent as the top end of its 2017 profit forecast exceeded some analysts’ estimates. Hugo Boss AG slipped 6.9 percent after saying it will eliminate two brands and slow down expansion of its store network. S&P 500 Index futures slipped 0.1 percent, after the equity gauge rose 0.8 percent Tuesday. As earnings season winds up, Lowe’s Cos. and Target Corp. will be in focus for indications of the health of the U.S. consumer. About 76 percent of S&P 500 members that have reported so far beat profit projections and 56 percent topped sales estimates. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent. Japan’s Topix index rallied to a nine-month high, driven by gains in banking stocks as investors bet earnings at financial companies will benefit from the recent pickup in bond yields. The Topix Banks Index has jumped more than 20 percent in five days, the steepest surge since 2008. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose for a second day, adding 0.3 percent. But the big move was again in bond yields and currencies, which resumed their levitation higher, further pressuring financial conditions, which as reported yesterday tightened to the highest level since Marc. The yield on 10Y Treasuries rose six basis points to 2.28 percent as of 10:41 a.m. London time, after retreating from its highest level of the year in the last session. It’s up more than 40 basis points since Trump’s election, having surged amid growing speculation the Fed will boost interest rates next month and beyond. The bond-market rout pushed Bank of America Corp.’s Global Broad Market Index down 1.5 percent in November, heading for the biggest monthly decline since May 2013. The renewed selloff spread to Europe, with the yield on Portugal’s 10-year bonds adding 19 basis points to 3.68 percent. Italy’s 10-year yield increased nine basis points to 2.05 percent, while that on similar-maturity German bunds climbed three basis points to 0.34 percent. Japan’s 10-year government bonds fell for a fifth day, lifting their yield to 0.035 percent. Tuesday marked the end of almost eight weeks of negative rates, the first time the bond market has tested the Bank of Japan’s resolve to contain 10-year yields since it shifted its focus to controlling the benchmark yield around zero. The BOJ said after its September meeting that it could carry out unlimited bond-buying operations at a set rate, if needed, in order to control yield levels. After that meeting, the bond market rallied in search of a floor for the 10-year note yield, eventually settling just above the minus 0.1 percent policy rate. the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed Tuesday's losses and rose 0.3%. It slipped on Tuesday after surging more than 3 percent in the four trading days following the Nov. 8 U.S. election. A bout of USD buying was observed just around the time of the European open, which send the USDJPY to new highs, rising just why of 110, down some 9% since last election's lows, and last trading at 109.70. Currencies of commodity-producing nations, including the Australian dollar and South African rand, were among the biggest losers. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index declined 0.3 percent and Russia’s ruble dropped 1.9 percent, after jumping 2.9 percent on Tuesday, the most since February. Turkey’s lira, Poland’s zloty and Mexico’s peso all dropped at least 0.7 percent as higher U.S. yields boosted the dollar. The yuan fell to 6.8729 against the dollar, the weakest since December 2008. Fed Presidents Neel Kashkari and Patrick Harker are both scheduled to speak Wednesday and may shed more light on the likely trajectory of borrowing costs in the world’s biggest economy. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress on Thursday. Bulletin Market Summary from RanSquawk European equities enter the North American crossover relatively mixed while fixed income markets have centred around JGB's which slipped overnight following a poor bank buying operation FX trade continues the strong USD theme, led by USD/JPY pressing higher in the quest to test (through) 110.00. Looking ahead, highlights include UK jobs data, US PPI, DoE's, Fed's Bullard, Harker, Kashkari and BoE's Cunliffe Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2176 Stoxx 600 up less than 0.1% to 339 FTSE 100 down 0.3% to 6775 DAX down 0.4% to 10692 German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.33% Italian 10Yr yield up 9bps to 2.05% Spanish 10Yr yield up 8bps to 1.53% S&P GSCI Index down 0.2% to 358.5 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 135 Nikkei 225 up 1.1% to 17862 Hang Seng down 0.2% to 22281 Shanghai Composite down less than 0.1% to 3205 S&P/ASX 200 up less than 0.1% to 5328 US 10-yr yield up 4bps to 2.26% Dollar Index up 0.09% to 100.32 WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $45.50 Brent Futures down 0.4% to $46.78 Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,227 Silver spot down 0.2% to $17.03 Top Global News Snapchat Said to File Confidentially for Public Offering: Company could sell shares as soon as first quarter of 2017 Fed’s Bullard Sees Medium-Term Boost From Trump Economic Policy: Rate increase in December still Bullard’s favored option China’s Yuan Tumbles to Eight-Year Low as Banks Weaken Forecasts: Lenders cite risk of imminent Fed rate increase, Trump concern Another China Red Flag Rises With Loans on Track to Top Deposits: Broad loan-to-deposit ratio at 80% for top 50 China banks, S&P says Modi’s Money Crackdown Threatens India Corporate Profit Recovery: Earnings at consumer companies, developers seen impacted Wesfarmers Said to Start $1.5 Billion Australian Coal Sale: Conglomerate is gauging interest in Curragh, Bengalla mines Trump Takeover Won’t Speed Bank-Mortgage Talks, DOJ’s Baer Says: Deutsche Bank among lenders seeking to resolve mortgage cases Ted Cruz Said to Be Considered by Trump for Attorney General: Cruz was at Trump Tower in New York on Tuesday Microsoft Offers Concessions in EU Review of LinkedIn Bid: Microsoft had Nov. 15 deadline to submit remedies to regulator Options Traders Say Red-Hot Small Cap Rally Has Further to Run: Hedging costs on Russell 2000 subdued despite recent gains Singapore Bond ‘Open Bar’ Ending as Borrowing Costs Surge: Companies face S$28.2 billion of bond maturities in four years * * * Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where markets traded mostly higher following a positive lead from the US where tech rebounded and the energy sector outperformed amid 5.8% gains in oil, while the Dow also posted a 7th consecutive increase, hitting a fresh record high for the 4th straight day. Nikkei 225 (+1.1%) was once again the outperformer in the region on the back of continued JPY weakness, while financials have extended on the moves seen post-US election. ASX 200 (+0.0%) closed flat as weakness in materials and mining names capped upside following a 7% drop in iron ore prices, while China traded mixed as the Hang Seng (+0.1%) conformed to the upbeat tone, while weakness was seen in the Shanghai Comp (-0.1%) amid a slump in iron ore prices and a weaker liquidity operation by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded down by as much as 50 ticks with demand dampened amid gains in riskier assets and after a poor BoJ "rinban" buying operation. This resulted in the 10yr yield rising to as much as 0.034% with the curve flatter amid underperformance in the short-end, while analyst at Informa also noted real-money accounts and Japanese banks selling in 5yr-10yr. PBoC injected CNY 110bIn 7-day reverse repos and CNY 30bIn in 14-day reverse repos and set the mid-point at 6.8592 (Prey. 6.8495). Top Asian News China’s Yuan Tumbles to Eight-Year Low as Banks Weaken Forecasts: Lenders cite risk of imminent Fed rate increase, Trump concern Another China Red Flag Rises With Loans on Track to Top Deposits: Broad loan-to-deposit ratio at 80% for top 50 China banks, S&P says Modi’s Money Crackdown Threatens India Corporate Profit Recovery: Earnings at consumer companies, developers seen impacted Wesfarmers Said to Start $1.5 Billion Australian Coal Sale: Conglomerate is gauging interest in Curragh, Bengalla mines Singapore Bond ‘Open Bar’ Ending as Borrowing Costs Surge: Companies face S$28.2 billion of bond maturities in four years In Europe, equities (Euro Stoxx 50: -0.2%) traded mixed with notable underperformance in the health care sector on the back of Bayer (-5%) issuing EUR 4bIn worth of convertible bonds to help fund its proposed acquisition of Monsanto. Elsewhere, WTI and Brent crude futures have extended on overnight losses amid the fall out of the latest API crude report which showed inventories rose 3.65m1n barrels, subsequently weighing on energy names. Focus in fixed income markets have centred around JGB's which slipped overnight following a poor bank buying operation in 1-3yrs and as such this led to selling in the short-end and the belly of the curve. This led to spillover selling in bunds which slightly dipped below the 160.00 level, consequently this saw a pull back from yesterday's gains. Top European News Hugo Boss to Reduce Brands, Limit Store Expansion in Revamp: Clothesmaker trims luxury ambitions, plans online expansion Delta Lloyd Sees $215 Million Annual Cost Savings From NN Tie-Up: Delta Lloydconfirmed a target for operational expenses of EU610m in 2016, lowering its target for 2018 by EU30m Bouygues Shares Jump on Improved Telecom Profit Margin: CFO says construction may get North America infrastructrure boost Iliad Sales Rise as Niel’s Phone Carrier Wins Mobile Clients: Promotions helped carrier gain 305,000 wireless subscribers U.K. Labor Market Shows Signs of Cooling in Wake of Brexit Vote: Jobless rate fell to 4.8% from 4.9% q/q London Land Values Fall Most in Five Years as Banks Lend Less: Shares in developers with central London home sites lag index In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed Tuesday's losses and rose 0.3%. It slipped on Tuesday after surging more than 3 percent in the four trading days following the Nov. 8 U.S. election. Currencies of commodity-producing nations, including the Australian dollar and South African rand, were among the biggest losers. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index declined 0.3 percent and Russia’s ruble dropped 1.9 percent, after jumping 2.9 percent on Tuesday, the most since February. Turkey’s lira, Poland’s zloty and Mexico’s peso all dropped at least 0.7 percent as higher U.S. yields boosted the dollar. The yuan fell to 6.8729 against the dollar, the weakest since December 2008 and beyond a Bloomberg survey’s year-end median estimate of 6.8. Standard Chartered Plc on Wednesday joined at least four other banks in lowering its forecasts for the yuan, predicting a year-end level of 6.9, compared with 6.75 earlier. In commodities, crude oil fell 0.9 percent to $45.42 a barrel in New York, after earlier rising as much as 0.8 percent. Oil retreated for the past three weeks amid skepticism about the ability of OPEC to implement a deal at its Nov. 30 meeting. The group is seeking to trim output for the first time in eight years as Iran boosts production and Iraq seeks an exemption because of war with Islamic militants. Prices will probably remain around current levels if OPEC fails to cut, according to BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Bob Dudley. U.S. crude stockpiles expanded by 3.65 million barrels last week, the industry-funded American Petroleum Institute was said to report Tuesday. Government data Wednesday is forecast to show supplies rose by 1 million barrels. Copper and aluminum declined in London, extending their retreats from one-year highs reached last week, and zinc retreated from its highest close since 2010. Metals rallied last week on a combination of increased speculative interest in China and optimism Trump’s pledge to spend as much as $1 trillion on infrastructure will boost demand. The 14-day relative strength index for the London Metal Exchange Index climbed as high as 87 last week, well above the 70 threshold that signals to some traders prices may have risen too far, too fast. “Investors took the opportunity to lock in gains after some big moves over the past week,” ANZ Bank said in a note on Wednesday. “Skepticism grew about the impact that Trump’s infrastructure spending program would have on demand.” Looking at US events today, it’s another busy day: we kick off with the October PPI print where expectations are for a +0.3% mom rise in the headline but a slightly lower +0.2% mom print for the core, before we then get last month’s industrial and manufacturing production readings, both of which are expected to have risen modestly, along with the capacity utilization reading. Later on we’ll then get the NAHB housing market index for this month. Away from the data we’ve got Kashkari (7.45am) and Harker (5.30pm) all on the cards for today. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Nov. 11 (prior -1.2%) 7:45am: Fed’s Kashkari speaks in New York 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Oct., est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%); PPI Ex-Food and Energy m/m, Oct., est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%) 9:15am: Industrial Production m/m, Oct., est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%) Capacity Utilization, Oct., est. 75.5% (prior 75.4%) Manufacturing (SIC) Production, Oct., est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%) 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Nov., est., 63 (prior 63) 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories 4pm: Total Net TIC Flows, Sept. (prior $73.8b) 5:30pm: Fed’s Harker speaks in Philadelphia * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap as usual Have been reading a steady stream of commentators speculate in recent days that there could be a global regime shift following Trump’s victory last week. This is something we discussed as our base case back in early September in our latest long-term study "An Ever Changing World". Back then we suggested that a 35-year super cycle of politics, policy, globalisation and ever lower inflation and yields were about to reverse and that 2016 would be seen as an inflection point in years to come. At the time the biggest push back was on inflation and yields with most thinking that they would remain low for many years to come. Whilst we think nominal yields will eventually be capped by central banks at relatively low levels to pay for higher fiscal spending in the years ahead, negative real returns in government bonds should be a regular feature going forward. Staying with yields, although we saw a reversal in the four-day bond sell-off yesterday (more below) there are some interesting dynamics emerging post the sell-off. One such theme is that with 10 year Japanese yields briefly edging back above zero intra-day yesterday and again this morning (currently 0.020%) for the first time since September 21st the market will at some stage focus on whether the BoJ will defend the zero level, especially if the global yield sell-off gathers pace over the coming weeks and months. It would be a strange decision to abandon the new policy so soon after announcing it so assuming global yields remain elevated they may be forced to buy more JGBs than they thought when the new scheme was announced. Where this gets more interesting though is what it means internationally. If the BoJ sticks to defending zero in a world where the US is likely to increase fiscal spending then you could make an argument that there is full blown helicopter money except that the BoJ is flying the copter over the US and may be about to become the new US government’s best friend. Without them, and without the ECB, it might be that Trump would be less able to spend freely on the fiscal side as yields would be less supported globally. Certainly one way to think of in our opinion. Back to those moves for bonds yesterday. Indeed it was the countries that had been most beaten up in the prior four days which saw the biggest reversals yesterday. In Europe that was the case for the periphery where 10y BTP’s rallied back -11.6bps, compared to Bunds which were down just -1.1bps. In the EM space similar tenor hard currency bonds for Mexico (-18.4bps), Brazil (-26.3bps) and Argentina (-18.8bps) were mopped up while across the Treasury curve the peak low in yield for the benchmark 10y actually came during the Asia session yesterday (around 2.180%) before yields finished at 2.220% last night and which is where they hover this morning too, albeit still -4.3bps lower from Monday’s close. Some better than expected US retail sales data – which was good enough to see the Atlanta Fed lift their Q4 GDP forecast to 3.3% from 3.1% - seemingly shut the door on yields drifting much lower. More on the data later. In fact it was a day of reversals across most markets yesterday. With the US Dollar rally taking a breather the outperformers in FX included the Russian Ruble (+2.93%), Mexican Peso (+2.10%), South African Rand (+1.83%) and Canadian Dollar (+0.81%). WTI Oil surged +5.75% and back above $45/bbl for its best-one day gain since April 8th as a fresh set of headlines suggested that OPEC nations were making a final diplomatic push towards sealing an output cut deal. Gold (+0.60%) also rose for the first time since Wednesday while US HY spreads tightened 21bps and are pretty much back to where they were last Tuesday again. Meanwhile equity markets continue to trudge along resiliently. The Stoxx 600 finished up +0.27% while across the pond the Dow (+0.29%) marked a fourth consecutive record high and the S&P 500 finished +0.75% despite Banks finally pausing for breath and being little changed. Instead it was the turn of energy and telecoms stocks to lead the move higher. This morning in Asia most equity markets are generally taking their cue from the gains on Wall Street last night. The Nikkei (+1.21%), Hang Seng (+0.61%) and Kospi (+0.75%) are higher while bourses in China and Australia are little changed. The latter has seen the mining sector take a bit of a hammering this morning after iron ore followed a near -3% decline on Monday with another -7% decline yesterday. Meanwhile, aside from the move higher in yield for JGB’s, most major bond markets are a little firmer this morning while Oil is little changed following the big rally yesterday. Moving on. So with the US signaling a significant rotation towards fiscal policy, there is a chance for a new trend to express itself in the UK Autumn Statement (a mid-year Budget) on 23 November. Overnight our economists published a preview. The Chancellor, Philip Hammond, has reduced expectations for the volume of his fiscal ‘reset’. Resources are not unlimited. Even with a modest relaxation, our economists expect a GBP30bn increase in Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) on average over the 5-year planning period given the general deterioration in public finances (GBP10bn in 2017/18). They also expect Hammond to say there is some “fiscal space” in reserve if needed. There may be some space relative to the UK’s low Gross Financing Needs, but the more Hammond uses this fiscal space, the steeper the debt trajectory. The more credible the fiscal down-payment, the easier it will be to convince the markets of sustainability if the policy needs to be scaled up later. Credibility is a function of how well the policy targets the problems and the balance Hammond’s new fiscal rules achieve between flexibility and commitment. The Chancellor’s ability to target spending at boosting potential GDP growth (e.g. infrastructure spending) and protect it in weaker-than-expected economic scenarios will determine the success and sustainability of the Autumn Statement. Staying with the UK, the October consumer inflation data out yesterday came in a touch on the softer side compared to what most in the market expected. Headline CPI printed at +0.1% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) which had the effect of lowering the YoY rate to +0.9% from +1.0% in September. The core also dropped to +1.2% yoy from +1.5%. Headline RPI also missed (0.0% mom vs. +0.2% expected) although PPI output prices (where Sterling depreciation had a clearer impact) did rise a little bit more than expected (+0.6% mom vs. +0.4% expected) last month. BoE Governor Carney said following the data not to ‘take a steer from the October numbers’ and that instead the consequence of the move in the exchange rate means inflation will go up and that ‘we do want it back towards 2%’ and that ‘we’re willing to tolerate an overshoot for broader reasons’. Yesterday was actually a fairly busy data for newsflow in the UK. There was some early focus on an apparent leaked memo by Deloitte which was picked up by the FT (but later downplayed) suggesting that the UK government has no overall Brexit plan and that given the complexity facing the process of leaving, may need an additional 30,000 civil servants to deal with it. Later on the BBC then reported that the government was looking at drawing up a very narrow bill after the Supreme Court decision to trigger Article 50 which would limit parliament’s ability to attach conditions to their negotiating position and so begin the Brexit process, allowing PM May to meet her March deadline. Finally late last night Sky News was then out with headlines suggesting that Brexit could be delayed for ‘as long as two years’ with a Supreme Court Judge suggesting that “comprehensive” legislation would be required for triggering Article 50. The key takeaway from the story was the suggestion that the Supreme Court ‘could adjudicate not just the validity of the Government’s appeal against the ruling, but also the precise remedy the Government must offer to the claimants if it loses its appeal’. Needless to say, Sterling had a choppy session yesterday but it finished a touch lower (-0.26%) at $1.2457 and is hovering around those levels this morning. Over in the US yesterday it was that aforementioned retail sales data which stood out. Headline sales rose a better than expected +0.8% mom in October (vs. +0.6% expected) while the September data was also revised up to +1.0% from +0.6%. Both the ex-auto (+0.8% mom vs. +0.5% expected) and ex auto and gas (+0.6% mom vs. +0.3% expected) prints surprised to the upside while the GDP sensitive control group component rose a bumper +0.8% mom too (vs. +0.4% expected). Indeed much of the commentary was focused on the impressive breadth in the growth of sales last month. Elsewhere, the NY Fed’s manufacturing survey for November was also better than the market pegged after rising 8.3pts to +1.5 (vs. -2.5 expected) and the highest level since June. The remaining data was largely second tier with business inventories up +0.1% mom in September and the import price index rising +0.5% mom in October. Along with those retail sales numbers, the Fedspeak did little to dampen a now well priced in Fed rate hike next month. The usually dovish Fed Governor Tarullo said that ‘the discussion of when is the appropriate moment for raising rates in order to prevent the economy from overheating too much is now, from my point of view, more on the table than it may have been before’. The Boston Fed’s Rosengren said prior to this that ‘I felt that the changes in the FOMC statement were well aligned with the notion of a high likelihood of tightening in December’ and ‘as a result, I did not dissent’. The market implied December odds for a Fed hike now sit at 94% compared to 84% pre-election. In terms of the other interesting newsflow yesterday, there was some focus on the conflicting reports concerning German Chancellor Merkel and whether or not she had committed to a fourth term as Chancellor at the elections next year. Initially CNN ran a story suggesting that she would run for Chancellor, quoting one of her CDU party lawmakers. Following that however we heard from one of Merkel’s spokesman who denied Merkel had come to such a decision and instead said that Merkel would comment ‘at the appropriate time’. That didn’t come as a huge surprise as our Economists weren’t expecting to hear anything until perhaps the CDU party conference early next month. Meanwhile in Italy another referendum poll was released yesterday (Tecne institute poll) and it showed that 53.5% of Italians would reject the constitutional referendum compared to 46.5% who would vote Yes. That poll was conducted post the US Election on November 12th and shows that the proportion of those who would reject is up 0.5% compared to the previous poll run by the same pollsters on November 8th (and pre election). Wrapping up the remaining economic data yesterday, there were no surprises in the preliminary Q3 GDP print for the Euro area which came in at +0.3% qoq as expected and +1.6% yoy. There was some disappointment in Germany however where Q3 GDP surprised to the downside (+0.2% qoq vs. +0.3% expected) which has had the effect of nudging annual growth down to +1.7% yoy from +1.8%. Meanwhile the November ZEW survey for Germany was a bit more mixed however. While the current situations index was down a modest 0.7pts to 58.8, the expectations component was up a bumper 7.6pts to 13.8 and the highest since June. Looking at today’s calendar, this morning we’re kicking off in the UK where we’ll get the September and October employment data including the ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings and claimant count print. This afternoon in the US it’s another reasonably busy diary. We kick off with the October PPI print where expectations are for a +0.3% mom rise in the headline but a slightly lower +0.2% mom print for the core, before we then get last month’s industrial and manufacturing production readings, both of which are expected to have risen modestly, along with the capacity utilization reading. Later on we’ll then get the NAHB housing market index for this month. Away from the data we’ve got the Fed’s Bullard (8.05am GMT), Kashkari (12.45pm GMT) and Harker (10.30pm GMT) all on the cards for today. The ECB’s Lautenschlaeger is also due to make an appearance this morning. The French National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, is also due to inaugurate her presidential-election campaign headquarters today which could be worth keeping an eye on.

14 ноября, 18:39

Мировые рынки: Дональд Трамп неожиданно нокаутировал Хиллари Клинтон

На текущей неделе участникам рынка стоит обратить внимание на выступления целого ряда представителей ФРС, в частности, Роберта Каплана, Эрик Розенгрена, Нила Кашкари, Джеймса Булларда, Эстер Джордж и Джеффри Лэкера. Вполне вероятно, что тон выступлений большинства членов ФРС будет ястребиным в преддверии декабрьского заседания ФРС. Отметим, что на текущий момент вероятность денежно-кредитного ужесточения в декабре оценивается в 81,1%. Также инвесторам стоит обратить внимание на тон их комментариев относительно победы Дональда Трампа на президентских выборах. . Читать далее... Свои мнения и замечания Вы можете оставлять в рамках чата этого раздела или присылать на наш электронный адрес .

14 ноября, 18:16

Мировые рынки: Дональд Трамп неожиданно нокаутировал Хиллари Клинтон

На текущей неделе участникам рынка стоит обратить внимание на выступления целого ряда представителей ФРС, в частности, Роберта Каплана, Эрик Розенгрена, Нила Кашкари, Джеймса Булларда, Эстер Джордж и Джеффри Лэкера. Вполне вероятно, что тон выступлений большинства членов ФРС будет ястребиным в преддверии декабрьского заседания ФРС. Отметим, что на текущий момент вероятность денежно-кредитного ужесточения в декабре оценивается в 81,1%. Также инвесторам стоит обратить внимание на тон их комментариев относительно победы Дональда Трампа на президентских выборах. . Читать далее... Свои мнения и замечания Вы можете оставлять в рамках чата этого раздела или присылать на наш электронный адрес .

14 ноября, 15:46

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

The key economic releases this week are retail sales on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress on Thursday. As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed. But it's not the data that will be the primary focus this week, it's the Fed speakers who are as follows: Monday: Kaplan; Lacker; Williams Tuesday: Rosengren; Tarullo; Fischer Wednesday: Bullard; Kashkari; Harker Thursday: Dudley; Yellen; Brainard; Evans Friday: Bullard; George; Kaplan; Powell In data: In the US focus will be on inflation data and retail sales, while across the pond we get labor market, inflation and retail sales data from the UK. The Euro area releases are more backward looking so focus will tilt towards ECB communication. Meanwhile in Australia, while the RBA Minutes are unlikely to add much new information, the labor market report will likely show employment growth falling for the third consecutive quarter. This should be an important reminder for the RBA policy outlook that there is still spare capacity in the labor market and weak wages growth. In Central Bank speakers: A wealth of Central Bank speakers on the calendar this week should keep markets busy looking for hints on their intentions and reactions to the US election result. Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee and speeches from ECB President Draghi and BoJ Governor Kuroda will likely gain the most attention. In the US, in addition to a number of Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed. In the Eurozone, data will be predominantly backward looking with the second estimate of EZ 3Q GDP and a first look at Q3 for Germany and Italy. Multiple ECB speakers on the calendar including President Draghi. In the UK, this week's three key data releases are labor market, inflation and retail sales. We also hear from Carney and Shafik testifying on the November QIR. In Australia, the RBA releases the minutes of the November meeting, but labor market data will be more significant. In New Zealand we get a range of activity data – house sales (Oct), retail volumes (3Q), job ads and consumer confidence. In Japan, Q3 GDP the only release of note, but we do hear from BoJ Governor Kuroda. In Canada, inflation and factory sales are the main data releases. * * * DB's Jim Reid breaks down the main events in the coming busy week by day: In terms of data, it’s a very quiet start to the week today with the only data this morning in Europe being the industrial production report for the Euro area. There’s nothing due out in the US this afternoon. We kick off tomorrow morning in Germany where the preliminary Q3 GDP report will be released. Shortly after that we get CPI in France and the full inflation data dump in the UK. Thereafter we get Q3 GDP for the Euro area and the November ZEW survey out of Germany. We’ve got important data in the US tomorrow too with October retail sales, September business inventories, November empire manufacturing and also the October import price index. Turning to Wednesday, the early data comes from the UK again with the September and October employment report. It’s another busy session in the US on Wednesday with October PPI, industrial and manufacturing production and also the NAHB housing market index print for this month. We kick off Thursday in France again where we’ll get Q3 employment numbers. Thereafter the UK reports October retail sales data before we get the final October CPI revisions for the Euro area. Over in the US on Thursday the big focus will be on the October CPI report, while housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed PMI round off another busy day. Friday morning it’s the turn of China where the October property prices data will be out. Over in Europe the only data of note is the PPI report in Germany while in the US we finish the week with the leading index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Away from the data, it’s an absolutely packed week for Fedspeak. Today we have Kaplan, Lacker and Williams all speaking tonight. Tomorrow we have Rosengren, Tarullo, Fischer and Kaplan all speaking from midday. On Wednesday it’s the turns of Bullard, Kashkari and Harker. Thursday is the big one with Fed Chair Yellen testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, while Brainard will also speak. On Friday we’ve also got Bullard, George and Kaplan on the cards. Meanwhile, over at the ECB we will hear from President Draghi today when he attends an event in Rome. With it also being Euro Finance week there is a steady stream of speakers throughout the week in Frankfurt. This year’s conference is called “Brexit, Banking, Bubbles – Chances and Risks in the New Normal”. If that wasn’t enough, in the UK BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to testify before Parliament on Tuesday. The other event to note is the scheduled meeting between President-elect Trump and Japanese PM Abe on Thursday. * * * Focuing only on the US, here is Goldman with a detailed breakdown of US events and expectations: Monday, November 14 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, Q4 01:20 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A focused on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve at the Wichita Falls Annual Economic Forum in Texas. President Kaplan will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. 05:00 PM Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks:  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will take part in a panel discussion on the topic “Our Fiscal Health: How the National Debt Could Impact the Future of America’s Youth” at Washington College in Maryland. Media Q&A is scheduled in advance of the event at 4:30 PM. 06:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will take part in a panel discussion at the Bay Area Council in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected. Tuesday, November 15 07:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will give the keynote address on “The Economy’s Progress and Outlook” at the Portland Chamber of Commerce in Maine. 08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): We expect headline retail sales to rise 0.5% after gasoline prices continued to rise in October. Core retail sales are likely to increase by 0.3% after a soft September figure which reflected modest weakness in a number of categories. For Q3, core retail sales growth slowed notably, rising at an annualized rate of 1.1%, versus 6.7% in Q2. 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, November (consensus -2.0, last -6.8): Consensus expects the Empire manufacturing survey to move up but remain at contractionary levels in November. In the October report, the Empire manufacturing survey weakened and most of the underlying components remained at contractionary levels. 08:30 AM Import price index, October (consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): Consensus expects the import price index to increase by 0.4% in October. In September, the headline index advanced 0.1%, boosted by higher fuel prices. 9:00 AM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will give a speech on “Finance and the Economy” at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council in Washington. 10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects a 0.2% increase in inventory levels in September. 01:30 PM Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give the keynote speech at a Brookings Institution event on the topic, “Do we have a liquidity problem post-crisis?” in Washington D.C. 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter speaks): Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Kaplan will give a speech at the North American Strategy for Competitiveness Conference in Dallas, Texas. Wednesday, November 16 03:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will participate in a panel on “Monetary Policy after QE: Helicopter Money or Back to Raising Rates?” at the UBS European Conference 2016 in London. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 07:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech at the New York Economic Club. President Kashkari will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. 08:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We expect PPI to increase by 0.3% after a firmer than expected September report. The headline PPI index moved higher in part due to higher energy and goods prices. 09:15 AM Industrial production, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%):;  Manufacturing production, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Capacity utilization, October (GS 75.5%, consensus 75.5%, last 75.4%): We expect industrial production to increase 0.3% (mom) in October following a 0.1% gain in the prior month. 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations, November (last +1.7%) 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, October (consensus 63, last 63): The NAHB Housing Market Index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—declined in September but remained near post-crisis highs. Consensus expects the index to be unchanged in October. 4:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, September (last +$73.8bn) 05:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the purposes and function of the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia. Audience and media Q&A is expected. President Harker will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. Thursday, November 17 08:30 AM CPI (mom), October (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.40%, last +0.29%): Core CPI (mom), October (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.20%, last +0.11%); CPI (yoy), October (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.5%) ;Core CPI (yoy), October (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.2%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.21% in October or 2.2% on a year-on-year basis. In September, core CPI rose by a smaller than expected 0.11%, due to a decline in apparel and wireless telephone prices. We estimate headline consumer prices increased by 0.37% last month, partially driven by higher energy prices, after CPI rose 0.29%. On a year-on-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 1.7%. 08:30 AM Housing starts, October (GS +11.0%, consensus +10.3%, last -9.0%); Building permits, October (consensus -2.9%, last +6.3%); We expect that housing starts recovered by 11.0% in October, following a substantial 9.0% decline in September that was largely driven by a 38% drop in the volatile multifamily starts category. Consensus expects new permits to decline by 2.9% after a stronger than expected 6.3% gain in September. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 12 (GS 255k, consensus 256k, last 254k);  Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 5 (last 2,041k): We expect initial jobless claims to tick up to 255k from 254k. Last week, claims declined by more than anticipated. Much of the decline last week was accounted for by drops in Missouri and Kentucky after auto plant shutdowns in the prior week led to a temporary boost in claims. 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, November (GS +8.0, consensus +8.0, last +9.7): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to edge down to +8.0 in November after the index declined by 3.1pt to +9.7 in November. 08:50 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give opening remarks at the New York Fed’s Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance. 10:00 AM Federal Reserve Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook. 12:30 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “The Evolution of Work and the Increase in Alternative Work Arrangements” at the Forum on the Evolution of Work event sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, Freelancers Union, and New York Fed. 02:45 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will give opening remarks at the 11th Annual Community Bankers Symposium in Chicago. President Evans will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. Friday, November 18 05:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will give a speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 09:30 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech at a joint conference held by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City on “Oil and the Economy: Adapting to a New Reality” in Houston, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Leading indicators, October (consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%) 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, November (last +6) 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City’s joint conference on “Oil and the Economy: Adapting to a New Reality” in Houston, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected. President Kaplan will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. 09:45 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on “The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia” at the Center for Pacific Basin Studies 2016 Research Conference held in San Francisco. * * * Source: BofA, DB. GS

09 ноября, 14:21

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация недельных данных по запасам нефти

В среду, 9 ноября, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя, а именно недельное изменение запасов нефти за неделю по данным EIA (в 18:30 МСК). Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель продемонстрировал рост на 1,33 млн баррелей. Среди второстепенной статистики можно выделить ипотечные индексы, а также запасы бензина и дистиллятов. Сегодня до открытия рынка будут опубликованы финансовые результаты Coty, Dish Network, Viacom, а после закрытия Eastman Kodak. Кроме того, сегодня состоятся выступления представителей ФРС Нила Кашкари и Джона Уильямса. К 14:00 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с понижением на 1,7%.

09 ноября, 09:48

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация недельных данных по запасам нефти

В среду, 9 ноября, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя, а именно недельное изменение запасов нефти за неделю по данным EIA (в 18:30 МСК). Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель продемонстрировал рост на 1,33 млн баррелей. Среди второстепенной статистики можно выделить ипотечные индексы, а также запасы бензина и дистиллятов. Сегодня до открытия рынка будут опубликованы финансовые результаты Coty, Dish Network, Viacom, а после закрытия Eastman Kodak. Кроме того, сегодня состоятся выступления представителей ФРС Нила Кашкари и Джона Уильямса. К 14:00 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с понижением на 1,7%.

09 ноября, 00:30

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В среду, 9 ноября, ожидается публикация небольшого количества важной для валютного рынка статистики. В 04:30 МСК станут известны данные по индексу потребительских цен Китая за октябрь. Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель продемонстрировал нулевое изменение по сравнению с сентябрем, но увеличился в минувшем месяце на 2,1% г/г. В 12:30 МСК любителям британского фунта стерлингов следует проследить за сальдо торгового баланса Великобритании за сентябрь. Ожидается, что дефицит торгового баланса сократился с 12,112 млрд фунтов в августе до 11,20 млрд фунтов. Наконец, в 18:30 МСК появятся недельные данные по запасам нефти, рассчитываемые EIA. В соответствии с прогнозами, показатель увеличился на 1,330 млн баррелей после прироста на 14,420 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Кроме того, сегодня станут известны итоги президентских выборов в США, а в 21:30 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари.

08 ноября, 23:32

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В среду, 9 ноября, ожидается публикация небольшого количества важной для валютного рынка статистики. В 04:30 МСК станут известны данные по индексу потребительских цен Китая за октябрь. Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель продемонстрировал нулевое изменение по сравнению с сентябрем, но увеличился в минувшем месяце на 2,1% г/г. В 12:30 МСК любителям британского фунта стерлингов следует проследить за сальдо торгового баланса Великобритании за сентябрь. Ожидается, что дефицит торгового баланса сократился с 12,112 млрд фунтов в августе до 11,20 млрд фунтов. Наконец, в 18:30 МСК появятся недельные данные по запасам нефти, рассчитываемые EIA. В соответствии с прогнозами, показатель увеличился на 1,330 млн баррелей после прироста на 14,420 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Кроме того, сегодня станут известны итоги президентских выборов в США, а в 21:30 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари.

07 ноября, 17:07

Key Events In The Coming Presidential Election Week

The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week.  The timing of poll closings on election night will be important for investors as markets adjust expectations in real-time. Exit polls will start rolling in from 7pm ET (perhaps a bit earlier), and will be staggered until around midnight. The outcome could be apparent much earlier in the evening with key battleground states like Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania all likely to release results by around 8pm. Conversely, a closer race implies a longer timeframe until the winner is known, and therefore, higher volatility on election night. Elsewhere" In the Eurozone, the main events include German Factory Orders and Industrial Production as well as the Ecofin meeting starting on Tuesday. In the UK, we have House Prices, Industrial Production and the Trade Balance. In Australia, the main releases concern confidence indicators and Home Loans. In New Zealand, our focus is on the RBNZ meeting where we expect a 25bp cut. In Japan, beyond BoJ Minutes, we get Current Account, Machine Orders and PPI. In Canada, it’s a light week with only housing data and BoC speakers on schedule. In China, the main releases include trade balance, CPI/PPI and money supply. * * * A day by day breakdown of key events: This morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where factory orders disappointed dropping by 0.6%, well below the expected 0.3% increase, followed thereafter by September retail sales for the Euro area and also the Sentix investor confidence reading. Over in the US it’s fairly quiet datawise with only the labour market conditions index for October and consumer credit data for September due. Also due out is the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey so that’s worth keeping an eye on. China also releases the October foreign reserves data at some stage. It’ll be China who get things started on Tuesday with the October trade data released. In Japan we’ll also get the latest leading index reading. During the European session the focus will be on Germany again where the September trade data and industrial production print is due. Trade data for France is also out tomorrow while there are important releases in the UK too with the September industrial and manufacturing production reports. Over in the US the NFIB small business optimism reading will be due along with the September JOLTS report. Turning to Wednesday, it’s once again China where the early focus will be with the October CPI and PPI reports due out. During the European session we’ll get France business sentiment and UK trade data while the European Commission will also release its latest economic forecasts. It’s quiet in the US on Wednesday with just the final revisions to wholesale inventories and trade sales for September due. Moving to Thursday, there’s not much to report from the morning session in Europe aside from industrial production and wages data in France. It’s similarly quiet in the US with just initial jobless claims and the Monthly Budget Statement due out. Friday is also fairly quiet for data. In Germany we’ll get the final October CPI revisions while in the US we’ll get a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Friday is also Veterans Day in the US meaning that bond markets will be closed, but stock markets remain open. Meanwhile, there’s also some Fedspeak this week with Evans speaking twice on Tuesday, Kashkari on Wednesday, Williams and Bullard on Thursday and finally Fischer on Friday. Another potentially interesting event worth highlighting comes today (at 3.30pm GMT) where the UK Attorney General Jeremy Wright is due to make a statement to the House of Commons about the government’s reaction to the High Court ruling last week. Questions from lawmakers are expected to follow. Finally earnings season winds down with just 30 S&P 500 companies reporting and 91 Stoxx 600 companies due to report. Finally, focusing only on the US, here is Goldman's recap of key events: Monday, November 7 10:00 AM Labor market conditions index, October (last -2.2) 02:00 PM Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, 2016Q4: The Fed will release its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The 2016Q3 release showed further easing in lending standards on residential loans but tightening in lending standards on commercial real estate loans. In past research, we have found the survey to be a valuable predictor of upcoming business investment growth. Tuesday, November 8 U.S. Presidential Election: The 2016 US presidential election will take place on Tuesday. Election results will gradually be released as polls close. Networks will not call a state until the state’s polls close. 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, October (consensus 94.1, last 94.1) 07:45 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will take part in a Q&A on the economy and policy at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. No media Q&A is expected. Recently, President Evans said that he sees three rate increases as likely between now and the end of next year. 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, September (consensus 5,469, last 5,433): The JOLTS measure of job openings declined modestly in August after approaching cyclical highs in July. Consensus expects job openings to edge up in September. 12:20 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will participate in a Q&A at UBS. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Wednesday, November 9 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects wholesale inventories to rise modestly in September. 01:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will take part in a fireside chat in Eau Claire, Wisconsin. Audience Q&A is expected. 09:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give a speech on the U.S. economic outlook at the University of San Francisco. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Thursday, November 10 09:15 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will give a talk on the economy and monetary policy at Commerce Bank in St. Louis, Missouri. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 5 (GS 255k, consensus 260k, last 265k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 29 (consensus 2,020, last 2,026k): We expect initial jobless claims to decrease to 255k from 265k. Last week, claims rose by more than expected and were likely affected by temporary auto plant shutdowns particularly in Missouri and Kentucky. Initial claims in states affected by Hurricane Matthew continued to normalize. Consensus expects continuing jobless claims to edge down further after declining to a new post-crisis low last week. 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, October (consensus -$81.9bn, last +$33.4bn): Consensus expects the federal budget balance to decline to -$81.9bn in October. Friday, November 11 09:00 AM Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give a speech on “U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Economy” via video conference at the Central Bank of Chile’s 20th annual conference. Last week, Vice Chair Fischer reiterated the FOMC’s view that recent economic data showed that the case for a rate hike has strengthened.10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, November preliminary (GS 88.0, consensus 87.5, last 87.2):  We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up to 88.0 in the November preliminary estimate, after the index declined to 87.2 in the final estimate for October. Source: DB, BofA, GS

12 октября, 13:28

Обзор рынка драгметаллов: 12 октября 2016 г.

Сегодня рынки драгоценных металлов в целом подрастают, несмотря на укрепление курса доллара США. Поддержку драгоценным металлам оказывает коррекция американского фондового рынка...

12 октября, 10:11

Нил Кашкари выступает против скорого повышения ставок

Глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари заявил вчера, 11 октября, о том, что у Федеральной резервной системы пока нет причин спешить с повышением ключевой процентной ставки. По мнению Кашкари, нужно позволить экономике США создавать рабочие места до тех пор, пока инфляция находится на низком уровне, который все еще ниже целевого значения.

12 октября, 09:31

Нил Кашкари выступает против скорого повышения ставок

Глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари заявил вчера, 11 октября, о том, что у Федеральной резервной системы пока нет причин спешить с повышением ключевой процентной ставки. По мнению Кашкари, нужно позволить экономике США создавать рабочие места до тех пор, пока инфляция находится на низком уровне, который все еще ниже целевого значения.

12 октября, 08:32

Не будем разочаровывать аналитиков

Вчера индекс ММВБ показал нейтральную динамику. Есть определенные технические проблемы у отечественных фондовых индексов и у индекса развивающихся рынков (о них мы писали вчера). Поэтому, накануне старта сезона отчетности в США инвесторы проявляли пониженную активность. Кстати, старт оказался неудачным — отчет Alcoa разочаровал и акции компании подешевели более чем на 10%. Согласно результатам за квартал выручка компании составила $5,2 млрд, что на 7% ниже аналогичного показателя прошлого года и ниже консенсус прогнозов аналитиков в $5,3 млрд. Цены на нефть также не способствовали росту акций. В Стамбуле проходит Всемирная энергетическая конференция, на которой было сделано множество заявлений касательно плана ОПЕК по ограничению добычи. К сожалению, многие из этих заявлений носят противоречивый характер.  Глава «Роснефти» Игорь Сечин сказал в интервью Reuters, что его компания не будет сокращать или замораживать объемы  нефтедобычи в рамках возможного соглашения с ОПЕК.  Министр энергетики России Александр Новак сказал, что основным сценарием для России является сохранение текущих объемов добычи без изменений. Нефть выросла более чем на 13% за менее чем две недели, с тех пор как ОПЕК переложила план по заморозке добычи впервые за восемь лет и сейчас «нефтебыки» нуждаются в отдыхе. Кроме того, многие эксперты сомневаются на счет эффективности возможного соглашения по заморозке нефтедобычи для решения проблемы перенасыщенности рынка. «Мы считаем, что, хотя вероятность достижения соглашения по сокращению добычи возрастает, сейчас для него еще пока не наступил момент, ввиду сильной неопределенности касательно объемов предложения в 2017 году», – сообщил GoldmanSachs в заметке. Такое соглашение «обречено на провал, если его целью служит существенный рост нефтяных цен», – сказали аналитики GoldmanSachs.  ОПЕК просила экспортеров находящихся за пределами  ОПЕК, помимо России, присоединиться к сокращению добычи, но США, страна-лидер по добыче нефти, не будет участвовать в соглашении. Мы рассматриваем коррекцию рынка как хороший повод для новых покупок акций. Многие инвесторы будут довольные если котировки акций Сбербанка об. «скорректируются». Сентябрьские максимумы котировки сейчас не пробьют – внешний фон не позволит. Тогда что толку буксовать под этими максимумами? Лучше снизиться до локального минимума 144,6 и там «зарядиться энергией» для дальнейшего роста. Еще лучше, если акции снизятся до технической поддержки 141, но желающих купить акции так много, что это из области фантастики. За полгода котировки выросли на 29%. Аналитики  JP Morgan Bank International считают, что справедливая стоимость акций Сбербанка об находится на уровне 195 рублей (при текущем курсе доллара). Не будем их разочаровывать! После коррекции «погоним» котировки наверх.Пока ситуация для развивающихся рынков благоприятна. Большинство чиновников ФРС поддерживают идею повысить ставки к концу года, если показатели по рынку труда и уровню инфляции продолжат улучшаться.  Глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари (не обладает сейчас правом голоса в FOMC) заявил во вторник, что ФРС следует продолжать следить за дальнейшим развитием ситуации на рынке труда США, пока не возникнет инфляционное давление.«На мой взгляд, надо дать возможность для экономики продолжать создавать рабочие места, чтобы их занимали те, кто сейчас вынужден подрабатывать, пока не начнется рост инфляции», – сказал Кашкари на выступлении в Миннесоте. С учетом того, что инфляция находится ниже целевого уровня ФРС 2% уже более четырех лет, не видно причин для срочного повышения ставок, добавил Кашкари.Что касается рисков прилета «черного лебедя», то они, к сожалению существуют. Эта птица может прилететь в ближайшие годы из Поднебесной. Долг стал одной из главнейших проблем Китая. Долговая нагрузка в стране выросла до 250% ВВП. Чрезмерный рост объемов кредита является сигналом увеличения риска банковского кризиса в течение ближайших трех лет, предупредил недавно Банк международных расчетов (БМР). Растущие объемы долгов ухудшат кредитоспособность крупнейших китайских компаний. В этой связи банкам страны придется нарастить капитал до целых 1,7 трлн долларов, чтобы покрыть вероятный резкий рост объемов плохих кредитов (по данным S&PGlobal).    МВФ предупредил Китай о том, что рост кредита в стране на недопустимом уровне. Объем долга компаний составляет 18 трлн долларов, то есть примерно 169% ВВП. По данным Комиссии по регулированию банковской деятельности Китая, в китайских банках неработающие кредиты уже составляют почти 2%. Это самый высокий уровень со времен мирового финансового кризиса в 2009 году. При этом некоторые аналитики оценивают долю неработающих кредитов на уровне 35%, так как многие банки в Китае скрывают проблемы.

10 октября, 16:13

Key Events In The Coming Week

The week ahead turns attention squarely towards the US, with the market's reaction to the second presidential debate on Sunday the key focus during the Columbus Day US session. The other main event will be the September FOMC Minutes, following US data and an employment report that has left many banks comfortable with a December Fed hike. The minutes are likely to reveal a heated debate about the appropriate course of policy, revealing a discussion about the costs and benefits of keeping rates at the current low levels, highlighting the growing divergence of views within the committee. Key data by region: In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday. In the Eurozone, we have a quiet data calendar with IP data and the German ZEW coming up. We do hear from a slew of ECB speakers, with focus on President Draghi over the weekend, especially given the increased taper talk. In the UK, housing data, construction output and BOE speakers including Governor Carney coming up, while political noise around Brexit and Article 50 likely continues. In Australia, we receive business and consumer sentiment surveys, housing finance and the RBA's Financial Stability Review. In Japan, current account and trade balance, machine orders and PPI on tap. In Canada, housing starts the only release of note in a quiet week. Broken down by day: It’s a quiet start to the week today with just Germany trade data, France business sentiment and the Euro area Sentix investor confidence reading due this morning. There’s no data due in the US with it being Columbus Day. US equity markets are open but bond markets are shut. Tuesday kicks off in Germany where the October ZEW survey will be released. In the US the NFIB small business optimism reading and labour market conditions index are due out. We kick off in Japan on Wednesday with the latest machine orders data. Over in Europe we’ll get the final revised September inflation report in France along with the August industrial production print for the Euro area. Over in the US the JOLTS report for August is the sole data release while the September FOMC minutes will then be released in the evening. Thursday kicks off with the September trade data for China. In Europe we’ll then get the final September inflation report in Germany, while in the US session we’ll get initial jobless claims and the import price index. It’s a busier end to the week on Friday. In China the CPI and PPI prints for September will be closely watched. In Europe we’ll then get UK construction output and Euro area trade data, while the BoE will also release its latest credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys. Over in the US it’s all eyes on the September retail sales data, while PPI, business inventories and finally the first estimate of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October will be out. * * * Away from the data, the Fedspeakers during the week include Evans and Kashkari on Tuesday, Dudley and George on Wednesday, Harker on Thursday and Kashkari, Rosengren and Fed Chair Yellen on Friday. The latter is due to speak in Boston on the topic of ‘macroeconomic research after the crisis’. Over at the ECB we’ll hear from ECB officials including Visco, Mersch and Coeure this week. Of course the other big focus is on the unofficial commencement of earnings season in the US. Alcoa report prior to the open tomorrow while JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo headline the banks reporting on Friday. Main events over the week summarized:   And a focus on just the US courtesy of Goldman Sachs. Monday, October 10 Columbus Day holiday observed. SIFMA recommends bond markets remain closed.   09:30 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will give a speech on the economy and policy at an event held by the Australian Business Economists in Sydney, Australia. Last week, President Evans said that he would be fine with the Fed raising rates once this year, adding that the most important issue “is not when the next moves takes place but it’s stating more clearly what the move after that would be based upon.” Tuesday, October 11 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, September (consensus 95.0, last 94.4) 10:00 AM Labor market conditions index, September (last -0.7) 11:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will speak at a town hall forum on ending “Too Big to Fail” and the role of the Federal Reserve in Arden Hill, Minnesota. Media Q&A is not expected. Wednesday, October 12 09:40 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Annual Payments Symposium. Last week, President George, who dissented at the September FOMC meeting, remarked that the September jobs report was encouraging and suggestive of continued momentum. 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, August (consensus 5,800, last 5,871): The JOLTS measure of job openings rose to a new high in July. Consensus expects job openings to edge down in August. 10:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will speak at a fireside chat with the Business Council of New York State in Albany. Last week, President Dudley remarked that monetary policy remains accommodative and he suggested that more effective communication would help the Fed meet its inflation objective. 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, September (consensus $29.3bn, last -$107.1bn): Consensus expects the federal budget balance to rise to $29.3bn in September. 02:00 PM Minutes from the September 20-21 FOMC meeting: The September FOMC meeting statement described risks to the economic outlook as “roughly balanced.” In the minutes, we will be watching for any indications about the committee’s sense of urgency regarding rate increases in the near term. Thursday, October 13 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended October 8 (GS 255k, consensus 253k, last 249k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 1 (last 2,058k):  We expect initial jobless claims to edge up to 255k after claims declined to the lowest level since April last week. The fall in claims last week was relatively widespread across states, with the largest drops in California (-3.1k) and Georgia (-1.9k). 12:15 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the economic outlook to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 09:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will speak at a town hall forum on ending “Too Big to Fail” and the role of the Federal Reserve in Missoula, Montana. Media Q&A is not expected. Friday, October 14 08:30 AM Retail sales, September (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.3%); Retail sales ex-auto, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.1%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); Core retail sales, September (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%): We expect headline retail sales to rise 0.7% after gasoline prices rose and auto sales strengthened in September. Core retail sales are likely to increase by 0.4% after a softer-than-expected August report as the retail components of service sector surveys looked strong September. 08:30 AM PPI final demand, September (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last flat); PPI ex-food and energy, September (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.1%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, September (GS flat, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%): We expect PPI ex-food, energy, and trade to be flat and for headline PPI to increase by 0.3%. Last month, producer prices were softer than anticipated, led by weakness in durable consumer goods and private capital equipment prices. 08:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will give opening remarks at the Boston Fed’s 60th annual economic conference, “The Elusive "Great" Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics.” 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, October preliminary (GS 92.5, consensus 92.0, last 91.2): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to rise to 92.5 in the October preliminary estimate, following a 1.2pt increase in the final September report. The measure remains in the middle of its range over the past year. 10:00 AM Business inventories, August (consensus +0.1%, last flat): Consensus expects a 0.1% increase in inventory levels in August. 01:30 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give the keynote address at the Boston Fed’s 60th annual economic conference, “The Elusive "Great" Recovery: Causes and Implications for Future Business Cycle Dynamics.” Source: DB, GS, BofA

10 ноября 2015, 20:59

Бывший банкир Goldman Sachs и PIMCO вошел в ФРС США

Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.