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28 июня, 03:59

Президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари: Незачем спешить с повышением ставок прямо сейчас

Президент Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари, выступая на мероприятии в мэрии Мичигана заявил, что не стоит спешить с повышением ставок ФРС прямо сейчас и что он пока не видит убедительных аргументов в пользу повышения ставок. Г-н Кашкари также отметил отсутствие признаков того, что очередной кризис в стиле 2008 года может вновь наступить. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

28 июня, 00:30

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В среду, 28 июня, ожидается публикация небольшого количества важной для валютного рынка статистики. В 09:00 МСК появится динамика импортных цен Германии за май, на которую советуем обратить внимание любителям евро. Согласно прогнозам, показатель снизился на 0,6% м/м, но увеличился н 4,6% г/г. В 11:00 МСК станет известен индекс экономических ожиданий инвесторов ZEW Швейцарии за июнь, который составил в минувшем месяце 30,8 пункта. Наконец, в 17:30 МСК выйдут недельные запасы нефти, рассчитываемые EIA. Ожидается, что показатель снизился на 2,298 млн баррелей после сокращения на 2,451 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Кроме того, в 00:30 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари, в 10:30 МСК состоится выступление члена FOMC Джона Уильямса, а на 16:30 МСК запланированы выступления главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги, главы Банка Англии Марка Карни, главы Банка Японии Харухико Куроды и главы Банка Канады С.

27 июня, 22:55

Why The Fed Will Fail Once Again

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” Truer words were never spoken, although if you updated Keynes today, the quote would begin with “practical women” to take account of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The “defunct economist” in question would be William Phillips, inventor of the Phillips curve, who died in 1975. In its simplest form, the Phillips curve is a single-equation model that describes an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. As unemployment declines, inflation goes up, and vice versa. The equation was put forward in an academic paper in 1958 and was considered a useful guide to policy in the 1960s and early 1970s. By the mid-1970s the Phillips curve broke down. The U.S. had high unemployment and high inflation at the same time, something called “stagflation.” Milton Friedman advanced the idea that the Phillips curve could only be valid in the short run because inflation in the long run is always determined by money supply. Economists began to tweak the original equation to add factors — some of which were not empirical at all but model-based. It became a mess of models based on models, none of which bore any particular relationship to reality. By the early 1980s, the Phillips curve was no longer taken seriously even by academics and seemed buried once and for all. RIP. But like a zombie from The Walking Dead, the Phillips curve is baaaack! And the person who has done the most to revive it is none other than Janet Yellen, the 70-year-old liberal labor economist who also happens to be chair of the Federal Reserve. Unemployment in the U.S. today is 4.3%, the lowest rate since the early 2000s. Yellen assumes this must result in inflation as scarce labor demands a pay raise and the economy pushes up against the limits of real growth. Yellen also agrees with Friedman that monetary policy works with a lag. If you believe that inflation is coming soon and that policy works with a lag, you better raise interest rates now to keep the inflation from getting out of control. That’s exactly what Yellen and her colleagues have been doing. Meanwhile, back in the real world, all signs point not to inflation but to deflation. Oil prices are declining, intermediate-term interest rates are falling, labor force participation is falling, demographics favor saving over spending and logistics and supply-chain giants like Wal-Mart and Amazon are relentlessly squashing price increases wherever they appear. Even traditional high-price sectors like college tuition and health care have been cooling off lately. Yellen and a small group of Fed insiders, including Bill Dudley and Stan Fischer, are keeping up the drumbeat for more rate hikes later this year. Opposition to more rate hikes among Fed officials is growing, including from Neel Kashkari, Lael Brainard and Charles Evans. This intellectual tug of war is coming to a head. First, bonds are rallying because the bond market expects a recession or slowdown due to unnecessary tightening by the Fed. Which brings me to Bill Gross… Practically every investor has heard of Bill Gross. For decades he was the head of PIMCO and ran the world’s largest bond fund. His specialty was U.S. Treasury debt.. PIMCO was always a “bigfoot” in the bond marketplace. In the 1980s and 1990s, I was chief credit officer at a major U.S. Treasury bond dealer, one of the so-called “primary dealers” who get to trade directly with the Federal Reserve open market operations trading desk. PIMCO had dedicated lines and a dedicated sales team at our firm. When they called to buy or sell, it would move markets. Every primary dealer wanted to be the first firm to get the call. Gross is famous for outperforming major bond indices by a wide margin. The way to do that is market timing. If you sell bonds just ahead of a rising rate environment, and buy them back when the Fed is ready to reverse course you not only capture most of the coupon and par value at maturity, you can book huge capital gains besides. Now Gross has issued one of his most stark warnings yet. He says that market risk levels today are higher than any time since just before the 2008 panic. We all know what happened then. Gross says it could happen again, and soon. No one reads the market better than Bill Gross. So, when he issues a warning, investors are wise to pay attention. The stock market is giving a different signal. Stocks are rallying because markets interpret Fed rate hikes as a signal that the economy is getting stronger.   Both markets cannot be right. Either stocks or bonds will crash in the weeks ahead. Gold is watching and waiting, moving down on deflation fears and then up again on the view that the Fed will have to reverse course once the economy cools down. My models show that bonds, Bill Gross and gold have it right and that stocks are heading for a fall. The stock market correction won’t come right away, because the Fed is still in a mode to talk up rate hikes and strong growth and to dismiss disinflation as “transitory.” Yet even Janet Yellen can’t ignore reality forever. The Atlanta Fed GDP growth forecast for the second quarter has gone from 4.3% on May 1, to 3.4% on June 2, to 2.9% on June 15. Today it released its latest growth forecast, which remains unchanged from its June 15 reading — 2.9%. Something is slowing down the economy, and that something is Fed rate hikes. By August, even the Fed will get the message. But by then it may be too late. If Q2 growth comes in at 2.5% combined with Q1 growth of 1.2%, that would put 2017 first-half growth at about 1.85%. That’s even weaker than the historically weak 2.0% growth of the current expansion since June 2009. This is not the stuff of which inflation is made. The Fed’s bungling should come as no surprise. The Federal Reserve has done almost nothing right for at least the past twenty years, if not longer. The Fed organized a bailout of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, which arguably should have been allowed to fail (with a Lehman failure right behind) as a cautionary tale for Wall Street. Instead the bubbles got bigger, leading to a more catastrophic collapse in 2008. Greenspan kept rates too low for too long from 2002-2006, which led to the housing bubble and collapse. Bernanke conducted an “experiment” (his word) in quantitative easing from 2008-2013, which did not produce expected growth, but did produce new asset bubbles in stocks and emerging markets debt. Yellen is now raising rates in a weak economy, which should produce the same recessionary reaction as 1937, the last time the Fed raised into weakness. Why this trail of blunders? The answer is that the Fed is using obsolete and defective models such as the Phillips Curve and the so-called “wealth effect” to guide policy. None of this is new; I’ve been saying it for years in books, interviews and speeches. What is new is that even the mainstream media is beginning to see things the same way. Fed leaders have been exposed as charlatans, like the Professor in the Wizard of Oz. The Fed’s latest failure will cause policy to shift to ease before September in the form of forward guidance on no further rate hikes this year. Just one more failure in a long list. It’s time to load up on Treasury notes, gold and cash and lighten up on stocks. The Fed may be the last to learn about deflation, but when they do, the policy response could be instantaneous and markets could suffer whiplash. That’s what happens when zombies are on the loose.

27 июня, 19:44

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В среду, 28 июня, ожидается публикация небольшого количества важной для валютного рынка статистики. В 09:00 МСК появится динамика импортных цен Германии за май, на которую советуем обратить внимание любителям евро. Согласно прогнозам, показатель снизился на 0,6% м/м, но увеличился н 4,6% г/г. В 11:00 МСК станет известен индекс экономических ожиданий инвесторов ZEW Швейцарии за июнь, который составил в минувшем месяце 30,8 пункта. Наконец, в 17:30 МСК выйдут недельные запасы нефти, рассчитываемые EIA. Ожидается, что показатель снизился на 2,298 млн баррелей после сокращения на 2,451 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Кроме того, в 00:30 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари, в 10:30 МСК состоится выступление члена FOMC Джона Уильямса, а на 16:30 МСК запланированы выступления главы ЕЦБ Марио Драги, главы Банка Англии Марка Карни, главы Банка Японии Харухико Куроды и главы Банка Канады С.

27 июня, 18:30

Анонс основных событий и данных макростатистики на вторник, 27 июня

Москва, 27 июня. /МФД-ИнфоЦентр, MFD.RU/00:30 мск: Выступление президента ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари; 09:00 мск: Цены на импорт в Германии за май; 09:00 мск: Индикатор потребления в Швейцарии от UBS за май; 09:00 мск: Индекс цен на дома в Великобритании за июнь; 11:00 мск: Денежная масса М3 в евр...

27 июня, 16:28

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете незначительно снижаются

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,434.50 (-0.06%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.40% до уровня 5,755.25. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют негативную динамику. Nikkei 20,225.09 +71.74 +0.36% Hang Seng 25,839.99 -31.90 -0.12% Shanghai 3,191.51 +6.07 +0.19% S&P/ASX 5,714.19 -5.97 -0.10% FTSE 7,433.86 -12.94 -0.17% CAC 5,259.10 -36.65 -0.69% DAX 12,689.72 -81.11 -0.64% Августовские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $43.98 за баррель (+1.38%) Золото торгуется по $1,249.80 за унцию (+0.27%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете незначительно снижаются, так как распродажа акций технологических компаний продолжается, тогда как инвесторы готовятся к выступлению главы Федеральной резервной системы США Йеллен (17:00 GMT). Речь Йеллен представляет особый интерес для участников рынка, так как многих интересует, считает ли она, что ослабление экономики США в последнее время является не более чем временным явлением. Кроме того, инвесторы надеются получить подсказку поддерживает ли глава американского регулятора прогноз FOMC относительно еще одного повышения ставки в этом году. Акции технологического сектора испытывают давление со стороны продавцов из-за опасений относительно высоких валюаций. Это побуждает инвесторов переключаться на так называемые "оборонительные" акции с высокими дивидендными выплатами, такие как акции компаний сектора коммунальных услуг. Кроме того, в фокусе находится отчет S&P, который показал, что цены на дома на одну семью в США ускорились более медленными темпами, чем ожидалось в апреле. Сводный индекс S&P / Case-Shiller для 20 мегаполисов вырос в апреле на 5.7% по сравнению с предыдущим годом, после увеличения на 5.9% в марте. Результаты апреля оказались ниже прогноза экономистов роста на 5.9%. Среди сообщений корпоративного характера стоит отметить новость о том, что ЕК оштрафовала Google Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) на рекордные 2.4 млрд. евро ($2.7 млрд.) за нарушение антимонопольного законодательства, так как компания систематически предлогала собственные результаты поиска выше, чем конкурентов. Антимонопольный регулятор ЕС заявил, что Google должен внести изменения в параметры работы в течение 90 дней или получит дополнительный штраф. В Google сообщили, что не согласны с выводами ЕК и рассматривают возможность подачи апелляции. Акции GOOG на премаркете снизились на 1%. После начала торгов влияние на их ход (помимо выступления главы ФРС) могут оказать данные по индикатору уверенности потребителей (14:00 GMT), а также комментарии президента ФРБ Филадельфии Патрика Харкера (15:15). После закрытия торговой сессии инвесторы обратят внимание на выступление президента ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари (21:30 GMT). Информационно-аналитический отдел ТелеТрейдИсточник: FxTeam

27 июня, 08:46

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 08:00 GMT Президент ЕЦБ Марио Драги выступит с речью В 08:05 GMT Член FOMC Джон Уильямс выступит с речью В 08:30 GMT Член правления ЕЦБ Бенуа Керре выступит с речью В 08:30 GMT Заместитель губернатора РБА Гай Дебелл выступит с речью В 10:00 GMT Губернатор Банка Англии Марк Карни выступит с речью В 11:00 GMT Член правления ЕЦБ Питер Прат выступит с речью В 15:15 GMT Член FOMC Патрик Т. Харкер выступит с речью В 17:00 GMT Председатель совета управляющих ФРС Джанет Йеллен выступит с речью В 21:30 GMT Член FOMC Нил Кашкари выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел ТелеТрейдИсточник: FxTeam

26 июня, 19:15

The Fed's Third Mandate Is Official

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, There has been a whole lot of ink spilled on the reason for the Fed’s recent break from data dependence. Many pundits believe the Federal Reserve’s hawkish guidance, even in the face of low inflation readings, is a partisan attempt by Yellen & Co. to derail the weak recovery. I don’t buy that argument. To think the FOMC board would leave rates easy for Obama or Hillary, but raise them for Trump is just foolish. The Fed might be incompetent, but they aren’t so blatantly biased. I have speculated the Federal Reserve’s deviance from data dependence can better be explained by the adoption of a third mandate - financial conditions (Rejoining the Dark Side), but my theory involved a fair amount of reading in between the lines. Until now… This morning, at a speech at the BIS Annual General Meeting, Bill Dudley came right out and stated unequivocally that the Federal Reserve was targeting financial conditions. As I see it, financial conditions are a key transmission channel of monetary policy because they affect households’ and firms’ saving and investment plans and thus influence economic activity and the economic outlook. If the response of financial conditions to changes in short-term interest rates were rigid and predictable, then there would be no need to pay such close attention to financial conditions. But, as we all know, the linkage is in fact quite loose and variable.   For example, during the mid-2000s, financial conditions failed to tighten even as the Federal Reserve pushed its federal funds rate target up from 1 percent to 5¼ percent. Conversely, at the height of the crisis, financial conditions tightened sharply even as the Federal Reserve aggressively pushed its federal funds rate target down toward zero. As a result, monetary policymakers need to take the evolution of financial conditions into consideration. For example, when financial conditions tighten sharply, this may mean that monetary policy may need to be tightened by less or even loosened. On the other hand, when financial conditions ease — as has been the case recently — this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation. There is no ambiguity there. That’s as clear as Central Bankers get. Dudley, who is generally considered the third most influential FOMC board member (behind Yellen and Fischer), is telling you plainly - as long as financial conditions keep easing (and employment doesn’t collapse), the Fed will keep raising. Look closely at the last line of Dudley’s quote, “when financial conditions ease — as has been the case recently—this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation.” The FOMC wants stocks to stop rising, and they will keep raising rates until they stop. Although Neel Kashkari has gone rogue, as one pundit so eloquently put it, the rest of the board are all on the same page. This weekend the San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams made a speech in Australia that was surprisingly hawkish: I once had a T-shirt printed up that reminded folks that the decisions we make at the Fed are “data-driven,” and they are. Although we live in a hyper-political era, the Fed is strictly apolitical…and as one of America’s great exports, Lady Gaga, would say, we were “born this way.” Our enterprise is unique within the U.S. government in both function and structure, and our design allows us to make decisions independent of short-term political influence. We base our decisions on what’s best for the long-term health of the economy, rather than “living for today.”   The U.S. Congress has mandated that our job is to keep the economy stable and on track, with a focus on two big goals: maximum employment and price stability. We want everyone who wants a job to be able to find one and for inflation to average 2 percent per year over the long run.   Today, the U.S. economy is about as close to these goals as we’ve ever been. Among other things, we’ve fully recovered from the recession.   When it comes to our employment goal, this is typically viewed in terms of the unemployment rate relative to the natural rate of unemployment—by this I mean the level consistent with an economy that is running neither too hot nor too cold. We can’t know precisely where this magic number is, but I put it at about 4¾ percent.   Today, the U.S. unemployment rate is 4.3 percent—meaning that we’ve not only reached the full employment mark, we’ve exceeded it by a fair amount. Given the strong job growth we’ve been seeing in the United States, I expect the unemployment rate to edge down a bit further and remain a little above 4 percent through next year.   Meanwhile, inflation has been running somewhat below the Fed’s goal of 2 percent for the past few years. In the past, this low rate of inflation was the product of a number of factors—the recession and the strength of the U.S. dollar being the two main ones. Recently, some special transitory factors have being pulling inflation down. But with some of these factors now waning and with the economy doing well, I expect we’ll reach our 2 percent goal sometime next year.   Now, I’d love to be able to tell you that the news is all rosy and that our work here is done. Unfortunately, they don’t call economics “the dismal science” for nothing. I’m paid to consider what potholes may be dotting the road ahead.   For starters, the very strong labor market actually carries with it the risk of the economy exceeding its safe speed limit and overheating, which could eventually undermine the sustainability of the expansion.   When you’re docking a boat in Sydney Harbour, the San Francisco Bay, or elsewhere, you don’t run it in fast towards shore and hope you can reverse the engine hard later on. That looks cool in a James Bond movie, but in the real world it relies on everything going perfectly and can easily run afoul. Instead, the cardinal rule of docking is: Never approach a dock any faster than you’re willing to hit it. Similarly, in achieving sustainable growth, it is better to close in on the target carefully and avoid substantial overshooting.   What this means is that we do not want our economy to run too hot or too cold. Like Goldilocks, we want our porridge to be just right.   During the recession and recovery, jump-starting and speeding the recovery required historically low interest rates. Today, interest rates in the United States remain low—and this is even true after the most recent Fed action, which I’ll get to in a moment.   I’m sometimes asked why we don’t just leave things as they are and not raise interest rates. After all, if things are going well, why change? The answer is that gradually raising interest rates to bring monetary policy back to normal helps us keep the economy growing at a rate that can be sustained for a longer time.   If we delay too long, the economy will eventually overheat, causing inflation or some other problem. At some point, that would put us in the position of having to quickly reverse course to slow the economy. That risks stalling the expansion and setting us back into recession.   My goal is to keep the economic expansion on a sound footing that can be sustained for as long as possible. The last thing any of us want is to undermine the hard-won gains we’ve made since the dark days of 2008 and 2009, when it seemed like the U.S. and world economies were on the verge of collapse.   Therefore, we’re in the process of normalization. At our June meeting, the FOMC undertook the second ¼ percentage point increase in our main policy interest rate this year. And we announced that we expect that economic conditions will warrant further gradual increases in the future. Re-read the paragraph about docking in a harbour. These are not the words of a Fed President willing to let growth run. He is on the same page as Dudley. It is stunning that markets are not taking these words more seriously. I don’t know if it was too many times crying wolf, but we have hit a point where markets are ignoring extremely hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials. The Fed seems to have lost credibility, and I fear that when the market finally realizes the Fed might in fact follow words with deeds, an abrupt repricing of financial assets will be on deck.

25 июня, 01:40

An Open Letter To The Fed's William Dudley

Authored by MN Gordon via EconomicPrism.com, Dear Mr. Dudley, Your recent remarks in the wake of last week’s FOMC statement were notably unhelpful. In particular, your excuses for further rate hikes to prevent crashing unemployment and rising inflation stunk of rotten eggs. Crashing Unemployment Quite frankly, crashing unemployment is a construct that’s new to popular economic discourse, and a suspect one at that. Years ago, prior to the nirvana of globalization, the potential for wage inflation stemming from full employment was the going concern.  Now that the official unemployment rate’s just 4.3 percent, and wages are still down in the dumps, it appears the Fed has fabricated a new bugaboo to rally around.  What to make of it? For starters, the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy has successfully pushed the financial order completely out of the economy’s orbit.  The once impossible is now commonplace. For example, the absurdity of negative interest rates was unfathomable until very recently. But that was before years of central bank asset purchases made this a reality. Perhaps, the imminent danger of crashing unemployment will give way to the impossibility of negative unemployment.  Crazy things can happen, you know, especially considering the design limitations of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ birth-death model. Secondly, muddying up the Fed’s message with inane nonsense like crashing unemployment severely diminishes the Fed’s goal of providing transparent communication.  In short, Fed communication has regressed from backassward to assbackward. During the halcyon days of Alan Greenspan’s Goldilocks economy, for instance, the Fed regularly used jawboning as a tactic to manage inflation expectations.  Through smiling teeth Greenspan would talk out of the side of his neck.  He’d jawbone down inflation expectations while cutting rates. Certainly, a lot has changed over the years.  So, too, the Fed seems to have reversed its jawboning tactic.  By all accounts, including your Monday remarks, the Fed is now jawboning up inflation expectations while raising rates. Congratulations and Thank You! History will prove this policy tactic to be a complete fiasco.  But at least the Fed is consistent in one respect.  The Fed has a consistent record of getting everything dead wrong. If you recall, on January 10, 2008, a full month after the onset of the Great Recession, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated that “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”  Granted, a recession is generally identified by two successive quarters of declining GDP; so, you don’t technically know you’re in a recession until after it is underway.  But, come on, what good is a forecast if it can’t discern a recession when you’re in the midst of one? Bernanke’s quote ranks up there in sheer idiocy with Irving Fisher’s public declaration in October 1929, on the eve of the 1929 stock market crash and onset of the Great Depression, that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”  By the month’s end the stock market had crashed and crashed again, never to return to its prior highs in Fisher’s lifetime. To be fair, Fisher wasn’t a Fed man.  However, he was a dyed-in-the-wool central planner cut from the same cloth.  Moreover, it is bloopers like these from the supposed experts like Bernanke and Fisher that make life so amiably pleasurable.  Do you agree? Hence, Mr. Dudley, words of congratulations are in order!  Because on Monday you added what’ll most definitely be a sidesplitting quote to the annals of economic banter: “I’m actually very confident that even though the expansion is relatively long in the tooth, we still have quite a long way to go.  This is actually a pretty good place to be.” – William Dudley, June 19, 2017 Thank you, sir, for your shrewd insights.  They’ll offer up countless laughs through the many dreary years ahead. Too Little, Too Late When it comes down to it, your excuses for raising rates are not about some unfounded fear of a crashing unemployment rate.  Nor are they about controlling price inflation.  These are mere cover for past mistakes. The esteemed James Rickards, in an article titled The Fed’s Road Ahead, recently boiled present Fed policy down to its very core: “Now we’re at a very delicate point, because the Fed missed the opportunity to raise rates five years ago.  They’re trying to play catch-up, and yesterday’s [June 14] was the third rate hike in six months.   “Economic research shows that in a recession, they [the Fed] have to cut interest rates 300 basis points or more, or 3 percent, to lift the economy out of recession.  I’m not saying we are in a recession now, although we’re probably close.   “But if a recession arrives a few months or even a year from now, how is the Fed going to cut rates 3 percent if they’re only at 1.25 percent?   “The answer is, they can’t.   “So the Fed’s desperately trying to raise interest rates up to 300 basis points, or 3 percent, before the next recession, so they have room to start cutting again.  In other words, they are raising rates so they can cut them.” Unfortunately, Mr. Dudley, the Fed miscalculated.  Efforts to now raise rates will be too little, too late.  To be clear, there ain’t a snowball’s chance in hell the Fed will get the federal funds rate up to 3 percent before the next recession.  You likely won’t even get it up to 2 percent. Nonetheless, you should stay the course.  If you’re gonna raise rates, then raise rates.  Don’t cut them.  Raise them.  Then raise them some more. Crash stocks.  Crash bonds.  Crash real estate.  Crush asset prices.  Purge the debt and speculative excesses from financial markets. Let marginal businesses go broke.  Let too big to fail banks, fail.  You can even consult with Dick “The Gorilla” Fuld, if needed.  Then let nature do its work. In essence, bring the paper money experiment to a close and shutter the doors of the Federal Reserve.  No doubt, the economy and millions of people will suffer a painful multi-decade restructuring.  But what choice is there, really? Let’s face it.  The Fed can’t hold the financial order together much longer anyway.  Why pretend you can with utter nonsense like crashing unemployment?  It’s insulting. Your credibility’s shot.  Better to get on with it now, before it’s forced upon you. P.S.  What’s up with Neel Kashkari?  The man has gone rogue.

22 июня, 16:30

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: H&R Block, Telephone & Data Systems, M.D.C. Holdings and Avista

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: H&R Block, Telephone & Data Systems, M.D.C. Holdings and Avista

21 июня, 20:53

Inflation Worries to Stall Rate Hikes? 4 Great Picks

Investing in stocks benefiting from a soft interest rate environment may be a prudent option.

20 июня, 22:24

Procrastinating on June 20, 2017

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must- and Should-Reads:** * Hoisted from the Archives from 2007: How Supply-Side Economics Trickled Down… * **Donald A. Yerxa**: AN INTERVIEW WITH BRYAN WARD-PERKINS ON THE FALL OF ROME : "'AT THE HOUR OF MIDNIGHT THE SALERIAN GATE WAS silently opened, and the inhabitants were awakened by the tremendous sound of the Gothic trumpet... * **Heather Boushey**: The unfortunate power of stereotypes: "If stereotypes lead judges to snap judgements that are racially biased... * **Nick Bunker**: Weekend Reading: Shifting Targets Edition: "Some critics of the disability insurance system in the United States think it is too easy to access... * **Ben Thompson**: Amazon’s New Customer: "the key to understanding the purchase of Whole Foods... is that Amazon is buying a customer—the first-and-best customer that will instantly bring its grocery efforts to scale... * **Mark Thoma**: Trump’s Apprenticeships are Based upon a Problem That Doesn’t Exist: "The evidence... points to a skills mismatch... * **Izabella Kaminska**: On the rise of unproductive entrepreneurs like Travis Kalanick : "Robert E. Litan and Ian Hathaway... citing the work of William Baumol, who passed away last month... * **Paul Krugman**: A Finger Exercise On Hyperglobalization: "I find myself trying to find...

19 июня, 18:14

Links for the Week of June 19, 2017

**Must-Reads**: * **David Glasner**: FIFTEEN THOUSAND WORDS ON TEMPORARY EQUILIBRIUM, EXPECTATIONS, AND CONSISTENCY OF PLANS * **Neel Kashkari**: Why I Dissented Again: "The economy is sending mixed signals: a tight labor market and weakening inflation... * **Janet Yellen and Nancy Marchall Genzer**: Janet Yellen Interested in Reevaluating 2% : "Nancy Marchall Genzer, Marketplace: 'Recently, a group of economists sent the Fed a letter... * **Lawrence Summers**: 5 reasons the Fed may be making a mistake : "The... paradigm... is highly problematic. Much better would be a “shoot only when you see the whites of the eyes of inflation” paradigm... * **David Grabowski, Jonathan Gruber, and Vincent Mor**: You’re Probably Going to Need Medicaid: "Imagine your mother needs to move into a nursing home... * **Barry Ritholtz**: Tax Reform Is Dead: "The long-awaited 'pivot towards being presidential' hasn’t arrived, and by all indications never will... * **Nick Bunker**: On Twitter: "That staffer was probably looking for a long time..." * **Robert Waldmann** (2007): The Simple Analytics of Progressive Income Redistribution: "Economists generally agree that redistribution reduces money-metric welfare... ---- **Should-Reads:** * **Brad DeLong** (2007): Tom Grubisich Is One Unhappy Camper: "Tom Grubisich... a former _Washington Post_ reporter and editor [says]... *...

18 июня, 17:00

Форекс прогноз на неделю | 18.06.2017

Подписывайтесь на канал: http://goo.gl/Rpsm62 Смотрите видео по Форекс: https://goo.gl/SNF0Ho Как предполагалось, евро/доллар снизился на прошедшей неделе, хотя мы ожидали более существенного падения пары. Главным событием на рынках стало прошедшее заседание ФРС, на котором во второй раз в этом году была повышена процентная ставка в США. Впрочем, это событие уже было заложено в текущие котировки, а более важным стало сопроводительное заявление и пресс-конференция главы ФРС Джанет Йеллен после заседания. Довольно неожиданно тон заявления по процентной ставке оказался предельно жестким. FOMC сохранил прогноз еще одного повышения в 2017 году и предположил начало процесса по нормализации баланса уже в текущем году. FOMC незначительно снизил прогноз по экономическому росту на текущий год и оставил без изменения прогноз по инфляции. Единственным, кто проголосовал против повышения ставки стал Нил Кашкари, который заявил позже, что ФРС следовало бы подождать восстановления темпов инфляции, которая снижается уже третий месяц. Джанет Йеллен на традиционной пресс-конференции после заседания сказала о снижение инфляции, однако отметила, что показатель имеет тенденцию к колебаниям и не нужно реагировать на несколько значений. Кроме этого, Йеллен заявила, что она ожидает дальнейшего укрепления рынка труда и дополнительного повышения ставок в следующие несколько лет. Американская валюта укрепилась после заседания, однако отрицательные экономические отчеты не позволяют доллару полноценно перехватить инициативу. Уже после заседания вышли данные о снижении промышленного производства за май, а также о падении активности в строительном секторе и ухудшении индекса условий на рынке труда. Оптимизм представителей ФРС в очередной раз обгоняет реальную экономическую ситуацию в США. Прогнозы экономического восстановления на второй квартал текущего года по-прежнему достаточно высокие и если фактические данные выйдут в соответствии с прогнозами, американский доллар получит существенный импульс для роста. Очень хорошее состояние на рынке труда США должно способствовать этому. В нашем прогнозе на предстоящую неделю предполагаем дальнейшее снижение котировок евро/доллара к уровням поддержки 1.1150, 1.1120, 1.1100 и, возможно, 1.1050.

17 июня, 02:59

Без заголовка

**Must-Read**: Even if people are unconvinced by Neal Kashkari's other arguments, I truly do not understand why his risk management argument is not decisively convincing: **Neel Kashkari**: Why I Dissented Again: "The economy is sending mixed signals: a tight labor market and weakening inflation... >...For me, deciding whether to raise rates or hold steady came down to a tension between faith and data.... I am inclined to believe in the logic of the Phillips curve...[but] the data aren’t supporting this story, with the FOMC coming up short on its inflation target for many years in a row, and now with core inflation actually falling even as the labor market is tightening. If we base our outlook for inflation on these actual data, we shouldn’t have raised rates this week. Instead, we should have waited to see if the recent drop in inflation is transitory to ensure that we are fulfilling our inflation mandate. >When I’m torn between faith and data, I look at decisions from a risk management perspective. The risk of raising rates too soon is a continuation of the FOMC’s track record of coming up short of our inflation objective.... If inflation expectations drop, as we’ve seen in...

16 июня, 21:38

Кашкари критикует решение ФРС США по ставке

Президент Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари выступил против решения ФРС США о повышении процентных ставок на этой неделе. Он не считает, что последние данные по инфляции позволяют ужесточать денежно-кредитную политику.

16 июня, 21:38

Кашкари критикует решение ФРС США по ставке

Президент Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари выступил против решения ФРС США о повышении процентных ставок на этой неделе. Он не считает, что последние данные по инфляции позволяют ужесточать денежно-кредитную политику.

16 июня, 18:56

One Fed President Says The Rate Hike Decision Was A Choice "Between Faith And Data"

Over the years many have accused central banking of being the world's latest (and most profitable) religion, with central bankers the only modern day priests left that still matter (to the tune of $75 trillion, the market cap of all stocks in the world). Today, in a blog post from Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari explaining why he dissented from the latest Fed rate hike decision, he admits as much when he says "for me, deciding whether to raise rates or hold steady came down to a tension between faith and data. On one hand, intuitively, I am inclined to believe in the logic of the Phillips curve: A tight labor market should lead to competition for workers, which should lead to higher wages. Eventually, firms will have to pass some of those costs on to their customers, which should lead to higher inflation. That makes intuitive sense. That’s the faith part." In a surprisingly honest assessment, he then says that "unfortunately, the data aren’t supporting this story, with the FOMC coming up short on its inflation target for many years in a row, and now with core inflation actually falling even as the labor market is tightening. If we base our outlook for inflation on these actual data, we shouldn’t have raised rates this week. Instead, we should have waited to see if the recent drop in inflation is transitory to ensure that we are fulfilling our inflation mandate." Which inductively suggests that the rest of the FOMC is still driven by, well, faith alone. Unfortunately, this time the faith has consequences, and as Citi's Matt King explained earlier, the Fed's decision to not only hike rates but also to begin a $450 billion annual reduction in its balance sheet, will have "significant adjustment in valuations." Which is perhaps ironic, because while Kashkari's opinion is quite objective on the topic of America's economic realities, he continues to be disappointing blind about the Fed's true purpose, namely to prop up asset prices, to wit: "while some asset prices appear elevated, I don’t see a correction as being likely to trigger financial instability. Investors would face losses from a stock market correction, but it’s not the Fed’s job to protect investors from losses. Our jobs are to achieve our dual mandate and to promote financial stability." Which is funny, because while the priests over at the Fed continue to live in their ivory towers, everyone figured out what was going on, and as Citi said earlier this week,"the principal transmission channel to the real economy has been lifting asset prices." Kashkari's full Kashsplainer can be found here.

15 июня, 11:07

ФРС подняла ставку. Станет ли это последним решением Джанет Йеллен?

Руководство ФРС США по итогам заседания 13-14 июня приняло решение повысить базовую процентную ставку на 25 п.п. до 1-1,25%. Почему теперь могут испортиться отношения президента и главы Федеральной резервной системы?

15 июня, 09:32

ФРС ожидаемо подняла ставку на 25 б.п.

Федеральная резервная система (ФРС) США по итогам заседания 13-14 июня приняла решение повысить целевой диапазон процентной ставки по федеральным кредитным средствам (federal funds rate) на 25 базисных пунктов - до 1-1,25% годовых, говорится в коммюнике по результатам июньского заседания Федерального комитета по открытым рынкам (FOMC).

10 ноября 2015, 20:59

Бывший банкир Goldman Sachs и PIMCO вошел в ФРС США

Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.