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25 апреля, 22:50

Seven Years Of College Down The Drain

Authored by Nicholas Colas via Convergex.com, Last week’s Beige Book highlighted labor shortages for both skilled and unskilled workers, but perhaps employers are asking too much from certain applicants.   That’s the upshot from a report conducted by the Rockefeller Foundation and Edelman Intelligence, which surveyed C-suite executives, human resource officers, and individuals aged 18 to 26 about the entry-level job market. While the majority of employers (69%) screen entry-level job candidates for a bachelor’s degree, almost half (49%) of college graduates didn’t believe they had to attend college to acquire the skills needed for their job. In fact, most college graduates (86%) said they are learning skills outside of their college degree.   Now this isn’t to undercut the credibility or value of a college degree, but only a little over one-third of millennials actually have one. Therefore, employers need to update their screening techniques to focus on an applicants’ fit within the company culture rather than depending heavily on a bachelor’s degree to help hire and retain millennials. Note from Nick:  How many of your coworkers have a college degree?  If the answer is “Most” or “all”, you might assume that most American adults have one.  At that would be…  Wrong.  Today Jessica reviews the actual role of the 4-year degree in US labor markets.  No surprise: many employers are “Doing it wrong”. We often hear about the bloated student debt crisis, but how many millennials actually have a college degree? It may be fewer than you think. A little over a third (36.1%) of 25 to 34 year olds had at least a bachelor’s degree as of 2015, according to the Census Bureau. Still above those older than 25 overall at 32.5%, but slightly lower than 35 to 44 year olds (36.3%). More data here if you’d like to see the report. The national unemployment rate may be at 4.5% as of March, but this number can be cut several ways looking at the unemployment rates for various degrees or lack thereof. Those workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher have an unemployment rate of just 2.5%. Even individuals with some college or an associate degree have an unemployment rate below the national average (3.7%). The less educated one is, the higher this figure registers: high school graduates (4.9%) and less than a high school diploma (6.8%). Even with a low national rate, looking at these figures helps show why some Fed officials still believe there is slack in the labor market as reflected in the last central bank minutes. “A couple of participants reported that the ongoing mismatch between the skill requirements of available jobs and the qualifications of job applicants was a factor boosting the number of unfilled positions.” We understand that most Fed officials think the “U.S. economy was operating at or near maximum employment,” but remaining slack in the labor force was a contributing factor for Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s lone dissent in March. Minutes of the Fed’s last meeting. Additionally, a major takeaway from the last Beige Book emphasized labor shortages for both skilled and unskilled workers. Link to report. Moreover, Fed Chair Yellen devotes much of her policy focus on unemployment. She gave a speech titled “Creating a Just Economy” at the end of March, where she explained how “the educational disparity matters because, among many reasons, people with less education experience both higher unemployment and lower average earnings.” She followed up that “while high school graduates earn somewhat more than people who did not finish high school, the big payoff comes with a four-year college or advanced degree.” Of course economic theory suggests the better the economy, the more work opportunities less educated workers will receive.  Yet we continue to read about shortages of labor in anecdotal Fed reports like the Beige Books. It even shows up in the data looking at the number of hires and job openings each month in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Traditionally, there are more hires than job openings, at least since the data was first tracked in December 2000. This crossed over, however, in August 2014. For the last 14 straight months, there have been more job openings than hires. Please see the chart in the pdf to this note. Clearly there is a mismatch in qualifications that has contributed to labor shortages. Typically economists look to older workers and blame their outdated skillsets, which may be true in part. But younger adults, namely millennials, are another vector of the equation. One key problem is that the qualifications millennials believe they need for certain jobs do not always match what employers expect, according to a recent study by the Rockefeller Foundation and Edelman Intelligence. Here’s what Rockefeller/Edelman found from a survey of +1,200 C-suite executives, human-resource officers, and individuals aged 18 to 26 on their perspective of the entry-level job market: Ninety-seven percent of employers think “entry-level positions are important to the success of their organization,” but 43% “cite sourcing enough candidates as a top challenge around hiring and retaining entry-level jobs.”   Sixty-nine percent of employer respondents said a “college degree is a primary screening criteria for many entry-level jobs.” This response was even higher for C-suite executives (81%), but lower for HR professionals (56%).   Consequently, employers’ most difficult hiring challenge is “retaining strong talent.” This is not surprising given that 52% of “recent college graduates agree that they are too skilled for their current job.” Employers may expect a college degree, but the work they offer may not be challenging enough to retain the minority of millennials that actually have one.   Even still, employers think a college degree “is the most effective way to employ someone with the right skills required for the position.” They also use it as a screen to speed up the hiring process, pick the most qualified candidate, and assess the applicant’s work ethic, personal skills, and mental capacity, according to the survey. C-suite executives, for example, favor hiring candidates without relevant experience (63%) over those with no college degree (60%).   Here’s the wrinkle: almost half (49%) of college graduates “agree they didn’t need to go to college to have the skills needed for their job,” while “86% of recent college graduates are learning skills outside of their college degree.” Even still, “75% of opportunity youth (unemployed people aged 18 to 24 not enrolled in high school or college with no college degree) agree not having a college degree limits their job options.” So how can employers solve the difficulties of hiring and retaining millennials? Some important points from the study: Employers should use other screening metrics, such as behavioral algorithms, rather than focusing solely on college degrees: “The top metric for evaluating the success of entry-level employers is how well the employee fits with company culture” after all. Employers hire opportunity youth because they are motivated, have applicable skill sets, the salary fits the offered role, they have a strong work ethic, and are professional.   In terms of retaining employees, current benefits for entry-level employees include: health care plan for full-time employees; 401k, other retirement plans, or some form of financial literacy/management training or resources for employees; paid-time off; employer-provided education/training programs to enhance job skills; supervisor support to ensure job success; and offering reimbursement for classes/programs taken outside of the office.   Companies should, however, “consider offering benefits that meet [opportunity youth’s] unique needs.” The most important benefits to staying in a job include: livable hourly wage/salary; a respectful/fair manager; work/life balance; skills training specific to the job; and consistent schedule.   The most difficult challenges young individuals face when finding a job include: lack of relevant industry experience for the position, slow job market with very small amount of jobs listed; difficulty finding jobs and/or companies I am interested in; hourly wage/salary doesn’t meet needs; and lack of skills-specific training. In other words, employers may not be “reaching opportunity youth with their open job opportunities” and may not be “marketing (and developing) their company culture in a way that is attractive and inclusive of opportunity youth.”   Link to the full report. In sum, labor shortages exist at both ends of the spectrum, for both younger and older workers. In order for companies to fill in the gaps for entry-level employees, they’ll need to adopt more evolved screening metrics that focus on how a candidate will fit within the company culture rather than relying heavily on college degrees. Some work is not challenging enough to warrant a college degree for entry level positions and loosening this requirement could help worker retention rates. Zeroing in on benefits that younger works care about the most can also keep them at their current jobs. As our labor market evolves, companies will have to follow suit as to how they go about hiring employees. Otherwise, they will fail to develop a major chunk of the next generation of workers.

24 апреля, 16:49

Обзор рынка: Азиатские и европейские биржи растут, пара EUR/USD пробила отметку 1,09, золото дешевеет

Во второй тур президентских выборов во Франции вышли Эммануэль Макрон и Марин Ле Пен, набрав наибольшее количество голосов в первом туре.Пара EUR/USD пробила отметку 1,09000 и выросла до максимального уровня за пять месяцев, азиатские и европейские биржи отреагировали ростом на итоги выборов во Франции.События дня: выступление президента Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари.Читать дальше

24 апреля, 16:28

Перед открытием фондовых рынков США: фьючерсы на премаркете демонстрируют существенный рост

Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,373.75 (+1.12%), фьючерс NASDAQ повысился на 1.12% до уровня 5,503.00. Внешний фон нейтральный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию преимущественно в плюсе. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют значительное повышение. Nikkei 18,875.88 +255.13 +1.37% Hang Seng 24,139.48 +97.46 +0.41% Shanghai 3,129.78 -43.38 -1.37% FTSE 7,248.65 +134.10 +1.88% CAC 5,285.13 +225.93 +4.47% DAX 12,422.70 +374.13 +3.11% Июньские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $49.95 за баррель (+0.67%) Золото торгуется по $1,270.00 за унцию (-1.48%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют существенный рост, воодушевленные динамикой европейских площадок в ответ на результаты первого тура президентских выборов во Франции, который состоялся в воскресенье. Согласно окончательным данным, во второй тур выборов, намеченный на 7 мая, прошли лидер движения "Вперед!" Эммануэль Макрон, получивший 23.75% голосов, и лидер партии "Национальный Фронт" Марин Ле Пен, за которую проголосовало 21.53% избирателей. Два других кандидата, имевшие, согласно опросам, шансы пройти во второй тур, - представитель правого движения "Республиканцы" Франсуа Фийон и кандидат от крайне левого движения "Непокорившаяся Франция" Жан-Люк Меланшон - набрали 19.91% и 19.64% голосов соответственно. Согласно опросам, г-н Макрон, выступающий за сохранение ЕС и его дальнейшую интеграцию, имеет все шансы победить г-жу Ле Пен, которая поддерживает протекционизм, отказ от евро, приостановку действия Шенгенского соглашения и выход с ЕС. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. Инвесторы продолжают внимательно следить за выходящими квартальными отчетами компаний, сезон публикации которых продолжается в США. В частности, на этой неделе в фокусе внимания инвесторов будет находиться отчетность таких компаний как McDonald's (MCD), AT&T (T), Procter & Gamble (PG), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) и т.д. Стоить отметить, что уже обнародованные отчеты способствовали улучшению ожиданий аналитиков в отношении прибыли компаний первом квартале. Согласно последним прогнозам аналитиков, за первые три месяца текущего года прибыль компаний S&P 500 выросла на 11.2% г/г, тогда как в начале сезона корпоративной отчетности ожидалось увеличение прибыли на 10.1%. В сегменте макроэкономических новостей следует отметить сообщение ФРБ Чикаго о том, что индекс экономической активности в регионе в мерте снизился до 0.08 с пересмотренных 0.27 в апреле. После начала торгов влияние на их ход могут оказать два выступления главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари, запланированные на 15:30 GMT и 19:15 GMT. После закрытия торговой сессии ожидается публикация квартальной отчетности Alcoa (AA) и Barrick Gold (ABX).Источник: FxTeam

24 апреля, 13:44

Сегодня в США ожидается спокойный день

В понедельник, 24 апреля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь второстепенной макроэкономической статистики, а именно индекса деловой активности в промышленности ФРБ Чикаго за март. Сегодня до открытия рынка будут опубликованы финансовые результаты Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly Clark, а после закрытия – Alcoa, Express Scripts, Newmont Mining, Whirpool. Кроме того, сегодня состоится выступление президента ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари. К 13:35 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повешнием на 1,03%.

24 апреля, 12:12

Neel down

Two top bankers can’t agree on whether lenders are too big to fail. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon reckons the problem is solved. Fed banker Neel Kashkari disagrees, because using debt to

24 апреля, 11:51

Сегодня в США ожидается спокойный день

В понедельник, 24 апреля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь второстепенной макроэкономической статистики, а именно индекса деловой активности в промышленности ФРБ Чикаго за март. Сегодня до открытия рынка будут опубликованы финансовые результаты Halliburton, Hasbro, Kimberly Clark, а после закрытия – Alcoa, Express Scripts, Newmont Mining, Whirpool. Кроме того, сегодня состоится выступление президента ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари. К 13:35 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повешнием на 1,03%.

Выбор редакции
24 апреля, 09:13

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 10:00 GMT Ежемесячный отчет Бундесбанка В 15:30 GMT Член FOMC Нил Кашкари выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam

24 апреля, 04:08

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US GDP; ECB & BOJ Meetings, And Lots Of Earnings

The key economic releases this week are the durable goods report on Thursday and Q1 GDP on Friday.  It iweek is the busiest week of earnings season, with 40%  of S&P 500 equity cap reporting. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.  Further, as SocGen notes, this week, markets will digest the French election results, with data releases focusing on the strength of the euro area recovery. The ECB may signal upside risks to near-term growth ahead of higher core inflation on Friday. EU leaders will meet to adopt Brexit negotiation guidelines. In the US, softer 1Q GDP data will be scrutinized, while rising inflation in the UK may have a longer term impact on growth. In Asia, GDP data should be boosted by net exports while the BoJ may upgrade it economic assessment. United States: Q1 GDP likely to show weak growth This week, consensus expects broadly unchanged new home sales as well as subdued business investment (ex aircraft orders). Most of the focus will be on Friday’s Q1 GDP where the Atlanta Fed expects growth to tumble to just 0.5%. Still, the Fed (and markets) is used to softness in Q1 growth that at least in the past has snapped back in the second half. Lastly, a one- or two-week bill looks likely to keep the government open past the Friday deadline, giving Congress a bit more time to work on a longer-term deal. Euro area: ECB to acknowledge upside risks to near-term growth. While markets will digest the French election results, the ECB will likely acknowledge upside risks to growth in 1H on Thursday while remaining on hold. Both headline and core inflation should recover by two-tenths on Friday, while the first 1Q GDP estimates for France (0.2% qoq) and Spain (0.7%) will give an early indication for the euro area (next Wednesday). Both the EC confidence indicators and the German Ifo will probably moderate but are expected to remain high. A special summit of EU-27 leaders (Saturday) will set the guidelines for the EU in the upcoming negotiations with the UK. Asia Pacific: Solid 1Q GDP gains in Korea and Taiwan; BoJ may upgrade assessment First quarter GDP data from South Korea and Taiwan are likely to have been boosted by net trade, as suggested by the strong external trade recovery across the region. The BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current policy stance and make no meaningful changes to its economic forecasts, but may upgrade its assessment of the economy. In Australia, annual rates of headline and core inflation are likely to have moved up, but not quite into target. JPM lays out the Calendar of events to watch for in the week of Mon Apr 24 The big focus this week will be on earnings (the week of 4/24 is the peak of the CQ1 season), central banks (decisions from the BOJ and ECB), Eurozone eco data (Eurozone Arp CPI on Friday 4/28), US eco data (Q1 US GDP and ECI both hit Fri 4/28), and US gov’t funding (legislation to fund the gov’t expires on Apr 28 – a shutdown is considered unlikely). Calendar for Mon Apr 24 – the main focus on Mon will be earnings (HAL, HAS, ITW KMB, LII, and TCB pre-open and AA, AMP, CCI, CDNS, CR, ESRX, NEM, RE, RMBS, RRC, SANM, TMUS, UDR, WHR, WNC, WRB, and ZION after the close).  Calendar for Tues Apr 25 – the main focus will be on US FHFA/Case-Shiller home prices for Feb (9amET), US new home sales for Mar (10amET), US conf. board confidence figures for Apr (10amET), and earnings (AKS, AN, BHI, BIIB, CAT, CIT, CNC, DD, Ericsson, FCX, FITB, GLW, KO, LH, LLY, LMT, MAS, MCD, MMM, NLSN, Novartis, NTRS, OI, PCAR, PHM, PNR, R, SAP, SPGI, ST, TROW, TRU, TUP, VLO, WAT, WSO, and XRX pre-open and ARNC, BHP, BXP, CB, CENX, CHRW, CMG, COF, CREE, DFS, EQR, EW, ILMN, JNPR, SYK, T, TSS, TXN, UHS, and ULTI after the close). Calendar for Wed Apr 26 – the main focus will be on earnings (ALK, ANTM, APH, AVY, BA, BAX, Credit Suisse, Daimler, DPS, GD, HES, HSY, IR, NDAQ, NSC, PEP, PG, ROK, Santander, Standard Chartered, STT, STX, TEL, TWTR, UTX, X, WRK, and WYN pre-open and AMGN, AVB, CAVM, EQIX, FFIV, FISV, KIM, MAA, NOW, NTGR, ORLY, PYPL, SAM, UNM, VAR, XL, and XLNX after the close). Calendar for Thurs Apr 27 – the main focus will be on central banks (BOJ, Riksbank, and ECB decisions), China industrial profits for Mar (Wed night/Thurs morning), US advanced goods trade balance for Mar and durable goods for Mar (8:30amET), US pending home sales for Mar (10amET), the expiration of the FCC anti-collusion rules (related to the recent spectrum auction), Trump’s press conf., and earnings (ABBV, Airbus, ALLE, ALLY, AMT, APD, BASF, BMY, BSX, CBG, CELG, CMCSA, CME, Deutsche Bank, DOW, F, IP, IVZ, JCI, LAZ, LLL, LUV, MMC, MPC, Nokia, NOV, POT, PX, Roche, RS, SIRI, SPG, STM, UAA, UNP, UPS, USG, VC, WCC, and ZBH pre-open and AFL, AIV, AMZN, BIDU, CERN, ESS, EXPE, FLEX, FTNT, GOOGL, GPRO, HIG, INTC, KLAC, LPLA, MHK, MSFT, PFG, Samsung Electronics, SBUX, SWKS, SYNA, VRSN, VRTX, and WDC after the close). Calendar for Fri Apr 28 – the main focus will be on Eurozone eco data (including Eurozone Apr CPI at 5amET), US Q1 GDP and ECI (8:30amET), US Chicago PMI for Apr (9:45amET), Michigan Sentiment for Apr (10amET), and earnings (CL, CVX, GM, GT, HST, LYB, PSX, SYF, VFC, WY, and XOM pre-open). Global Economics Calendar: Week of Mon April 24th, also via JPM Monday, April 24th: US (Chicago./Dallas Fed Indices); Eurozone (Germany IFO Current Assessment, UK CBI Business Optimism); Other (Taiwan Unemployment Rate, Japan Leading/Coincident Index, Taiwan Industrial production, Taiwan Money Supply, China Conference Board China March Leading Economic Index, Japan PPI Services) Tuesday, April 25th: US (FHFA House Price Index, S&P/CoreLogic 20-City HPI, New Home Sales, Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, Richmond Fed); Eurozone (France Business Confidence, Spain PPI, ECB Bank Lending Survey, UK Public Finances, Euro Area Fourth Quarter Government Debt); Other (Hong Kong Trade Balance) Wednesday, April 26th: US (MBA Mortgage Applications); Eurozone (France Consumer Confidence, Spain Total Mortgage Lending, France Jobseekers); Other (Japan All Industry Activity Index, Japan Machine Tool Orders, Japan Buying/Selling Foreign Stocks/Bonds, China Swift Global Payments, China Industrial Profits, BOJ 10-Yr Yield Target, BOJ Policy Balance Rate) Thursday, April 27th: US (Advance Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale/Retail Inventories, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index); Eurozone (Germany GfK Consumer Confidence, Spain Unemployment Rate, Spain CPI, Germany CPI, Italy Economic Sentiment, Eurozone Economic Confidence, ECB Main Refinancing Rate, ECB Asset Purchase Target, UK GfK Consumer Confidence, Spain Budget Balance); Other (Taiwan Monitoring Indicator, Taiwan Bounced Check Ratio, Japan Jobless Rate, Japan National CPI, Japan Industrial Production, Japan Retail Sales) Friday, April 28th: US (Employment Cost Index, GDP Annualized, Core PCE, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan Survey); Eurozone (France GDP, France CPI, Eurozone M3 Money Supply, Spain GDP, Spain Retail Sales, UK GDP, Eurozone CPI, Italy PPI, , UK Nationwide House Prices); Other (Japan Vehicle Production, Japan Housing Starts) A look at the upcoming busiest week of Q1 earning season: The CQ1 season isn’t even half over although several important companies posted numbers over the last 1.5 weeks.  As is the case with any given earnings period, the most “important” sectors from the perspective of the macro narrative are banks, semis, capital goods, and credit cards.  The US bank season is nearly over and numbers were pretty healthy, esp. relative to reduced expectations.  Loan growth wasn’t as bad as the weekly Fed data suggested, NII/NIM was inline-to-better, expenses and credit remain under control (there were some pockets of credit deterioration but nothing that suggests a broader systemic problem), and trading was healthy (the one notable exception was GS which badly lagged its peers in FICC; GS mgmt. didn’t sound concerned and cited the latter two letters, i.e. currencies and commodities, for the shortfall).  At the moment for bank stocks the direction of TSY yields (and the shape of the curve) is having a greater influence than earnings.  In semis only a handful of companies reported but the early results are solid, esp. semi equipment (ASML and LRCX).  MXIM’s report Thurs night was more controversial – the headline income statement figures were solid for Mar actuals and June guide but mgmt. on the call acknowledged some softness in the US auto market (although MXIM really wasn’t outright negative on autos and while SAAR is drifting lower the amount of silicon per unit continues to experience strong growth).  The initial indications from the capital goods companies w/DOV, GE, and HON all posting healthy organic growth (both revs and orders) while Eurozone reports were decent too (Schneider, ABB, etc.).  GE was controversial as very strong orders and income statement numbers were offset by very weak cash flow.  GWW was the one notable disappointment within the industrial space although the problem was competition/pricing (and not necessarily end-market demand).  The best sector for assessing the health of “the consumer” isn’t retail but instead the credit cards (the key is the amount of card swipes, not where those swipes are occurring) and numbers out of that group so far in CQ1 have been positive (w/upside reports out of AXP and V/Visa).  Other earnings highlights over the last week include CSX (solid Q and Hunter Harrison provided positive guidance), IBM (pretty weak all around w/soft revs and margin downside), EBAY (decent Q1 but weaker Q2 guide), NFLX (some noise w/Q1 subs light and better Q2 guide but the H1 numbers in aggregate were about inline), and VZ (the big focus was the very weak subscriber metrics; the sub results would have been even worse had VZ not unveiled its unlimited data plans in the middle of the Q). * * * Finally, a focus just on US events in the coming week, together with consensus and Goldman estimates Monday, April 24 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, April (consensus +17.0, last +16.9) 11:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will give the keynote speech at the 6th Annual Fink Investing Conference at UCLA in California. Audience Q&A is expected. 03:15 PM Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated discussion at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont. Audience Q&A is expected. Tuesday, April 25 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, February (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.7%, last +0.9%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 1.1% in the February report following a 0.9% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which rose to 5.7% from 5.5% in January. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, February (consensus +0.4%, last flat): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% (mom sa) in February, after a flat reading in January. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 5.7% in January, down from 6.2% in December. 10:00 AM New home sales, March (GS -2.0%, consensus -1.4%, last +6.1%): We expect new home sales to fall 2.0% in March, retracing some of its 6.1% February increase, as we expect the negative impact of Winter Storm Stella in the Midwest and Northeast to be partially offset by a favorable fundamental backdrop and an elevated level of single-family building permits. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, April (GS 121.0, consensus 123.0, last 125.6): We forecast that consumer confidence declined 4.6pt to 121.0 in April from the cycle high in March. Our forecast reflects some sequential deterioration in consumer surveys in late March and early April, as well as recent stock market weakness. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +16, last +22) Wednesday, April 26 There are no major data releases. Thursday, April 27 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report: Advance goods trade balance, March preliminary (GS -$65.9bn, consensus -$65.4bn, last -$63.9bn); We estimate the goods trade deficit widened $2.0bn to $65.9bn in March, following February’s sharp narrowing that we believe reflected a pronounced impact from the relatively early Chinese New Year, which likely shifted the timing of imports from February to January. Based on our expectation of a partial reversal of these effects as well as a (likely related) sharp rebound in March inbound container traffic, we expect renewed deterioration in the trade balance. At the same time, lower March oil prices should reduce the nominal petroleum deficit, providing a partial offset. 08:30 AM Wholesale inventories, March preliminary (consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, March preliminary (GS +2.1%, consensus +1.3%, last +1.8%) ; Durable goods orders ex-transportation, March preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods orders, March preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, March preliminary (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.0%): We estimate durable goods orders rose 2.1% in March, driven by higher non-defense aircraft orders indicated by stronger company-reported data. We believe the details of the report are likely to be mixed. Manufacturing production was soft in March, exhibiting a 0.2% pullback in ex-auto manufacturing and a 0.4% drop in the capex-sensitive business equipment category. Chinese New Year effects may also weigh on core capital goods shipments growth, to the extent that they boosted the February level. At the same time, capital goods company results and commentary have been encouraging, with mounting evidence of accelerating growth in the industrial economy. Accordingly, we estimate softer shipments, but firmer orders in March, with month-to-month growth rates of -0.1% and +0.5%, respectively. We estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation rose 0.4%. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 22 (GS 245k, consensus 243k, last 244k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 15 (consensus 2,010k, last 1,979k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged up 1k to 245k. Claims have returned to normal levels following two weeks of temporary elevation in mid-to-late March that likely reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, March (GS +0.5%, consensus -1.0%, last +5.5%): Regional housing data released so far suggest the improvement in February contract signings continued into March, despite unseasonably cold temperatures and above-average snowfall. We expect a 0.5% increase in the pending homes sales index, adding to the 5.5% increase in the prior month. Stable-to-higher March pending homes sales would be particularly encouraging in the context of higher mortgage rates, which incidentally have declined so far in April after reaching a two-year high in mid-March. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, April (consensus +16, last +20) Friday, April 28 08:30 AM GDP (advance), Q1 (GS +1.4%, consensus +1.1%, last +2.1%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +1.3%, consensus +0.9%, last +3.5%): We expect a +1.4% increase in the first vintage of Q1 GDP (qoq saar), driven by a double-digit increase in residential investment (+12.6%) and a robust pace of growth in business fixed investment (+6.9%), partially offset by a negative growth contribution from inventory investment (-0.7pp) and net exports (-0.1pp). Accordingly, our growth estimate for the domestic final sales component is somewhat firmer at +2.1%. We look for real personal consumption to rise 1.3%, aided by a late-quarter boost to utilities consumption that reflects the impact of unseasonably cold weather in March. 08:30 AM Employment cost index, Q1 (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.5%); We estimate that growth in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated to 0.7% in Q1 (qoq sa) from 0.5% in Q4, with the year-over-year pace rising to 2.3% (from 2.2%). Our forecast mainly reflects firming wage growth in an economy at or near full employment. The ECI rose a softer-than-expected 0.5% in the fourth quarter, and the headline measure appears to have overshot to the downside relative to underlying wage growth in the ECI sample. Wages and salaries excluding incentive-paid occupations actually firmed last quarter, rising 2.5% year over year vs. 2.4% in Q3. This suggests some scope for the gap to close (or overshoot in the other direction) in Q1. Relatedly, we see scope for improving wage growth in sales and related occupations and in the administrative and support services industries, where wages and salaries exhibited rare outright declines last quarter.  Wage growth data has generally been stable-to-higher so far in 2017, most notably the Atlanta Fed wage tracker, which rose to 3.4% year over year in March. Our broader Q1 wage tracker rose 2.9% year over year in Q1, up from 2.8% in Q4 and compared to the Q4 ECI of +2.2% (yoy). Taken together, our base case expectation is that growth in the Employment Cost Index will round up to +0.7%. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, April (GS 57.0, consensus 56.5, last 57.7): We expect the Chicago PMI to decrease to 57.0 in April after the index edged up to 57.7 in March. Despite expected sequential softness, the index is likely to remain at a level consistent with growth in the manufacturing sector, in line with the reports of other regional manufacturing surveys in April. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, April final (GS 97.5, consensus 98.0, last 98.0): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to pull back 0.5pt to 97.5 in the April final estimate, reflecting some sequential deterioration in April consumer surveys. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations was unchanged at 2.4%. With gas prices rebounding in April, the related technical drag on reported inflation expectations should be limited. 01:15 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “Fintech and the Future of Finance” at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in Illinois. Audience Q&A is expected. 02:30 Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will give a speech on “How STEM Can Get You Anywhere” at the X-STEM Symposium in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. Source: JPM, Goldman, SocGen

24 апреля, 00:30

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В понедельник, 24 апреля, ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 11:00 МСК мы узнаем апрельское значение индекса делового оптимизма Ifo Германии. Ожидается, что значение показателя вырастет с 112,3 пункта месяцем ранее до 112,5 пункта. Стоит отметить, что в 18:30 МСК и 22:15 МСК состоятся выступления главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари.

21 апреля, 17:37

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В понедельник, 24 апреля, ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 11:00 МСК мы узнаем апрельское значение индекса делового оптимизма Ifo Германии. Ожидается, что значение показателя вырастет с 112,3 пункта месяцем ранее до 112,5 пункта. Стоит отметить, что в 18:30 МСК и 23:15 МСК состоятся выступления главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари.

21 апреля, 13:46

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация данных по рынку недвижимости, нескольких отчетностей

В пятницу, 21 апреля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 17:00 МСК выйдут данные по продажам домов на вторичном рынке за март. Ожидается, что показатель составил 5,60 млн после 5,48 млн в феврале. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить индекс деловой активности в промышленности за апрель. Кроме того, в 16:30 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари. Что касается календаря корпоративных отчетностей, то здесь следует отметить General Electric, Honeywell International, Manpower, Schlumberger и SunTrust Banks, которые представят свои финансовые результаты до открытия торгов. К 13:25 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повышением на 0,06%.

21 апреля, 12:30

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация данных по рынку недвижимости, нескольких отчетностей

В пятницу, 21 апреля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 17:00 МСК выйдут данные по продажам домов на вторичном рынке за март. Ожидается, что показатель составил 5,60 млн после 5,48 млн в феврале. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить индекс деловой активности в промышленности за апрель. Кроме того, в 16:30 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари. Что касается календаря корпоративных отчетностей, то здесь следует отметить General Electric, Honeywell International, Manpower, Schlumberger и SunTrust Banks, которые представят свои финансовые результаты до открытия торгов. К 13:25 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повышением на 0,06%.

21 апреля, 09:16

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 11:45 GMT Член КМП Банка Англии Майкл Сондерс выступит с речью В 12:00 GMT Член правления ЕЦБ Йенс Вайдман выступит с речью В 13:30 GMT Член FOMC Нил Кашкари выступит с речью В 16:30 GMT Член правления ЕЦБ Йенс Вайдман выступит с речью Также сегодня пройдет второй день встречи МВФ и состоится выступление президента ЕЦБ Марио Драги Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

21 апреля, 00:30

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В пятницу, 21 апреля, ожидается довольно насыщенный в плане макроэкономической статистики день. В частности, в Европе будет опубликован блок предварительных данных по деловой активности в промышленности и секторе услуг за апрель. Так, в 10:30 МСК соответствующие индексы выйдут в Германии, а в 11:00 МСК – в еврозоне. С прогнозами и историческими данными по индикаторам можно ознакомиться у нас на сайте в разделе "Календарь статистики". Далее в 11:30 МСК мы узнаем о мартовской динамике продаж в Великобритании. Ожидается, что показатель снизился на 0,2% м/м и вырос на 3,4% г/г после повышения на 1,4% м/м и 3,7% г/г соответственно. В 17:00 МСК выйдут мартовские данные по продажам домов на вторичном рынке США. Согласно нашим прогнозам, значение показателя увеличилось с 5,48 млн в феврале до 5,60 млн. Стоит отметить, что в 16:30 МСК состоится выступление главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари.

20 апреля, 13:06

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В пятницу, 21 апреля, ожидается довольно насыщенный в плане макроэкономической статистики день. В частности, в Европе будет опубликован блок предварительных данных по деловой активности в промышленности и секторе услуг за апрель. Так, в 10:30 МСК соответствующие индексы выйдут в Германии, а в 11:00 МСК – в еврозоне. С прогнозами и историческими данными по индикаторам можно ознакомиться у нас на сайте в разделе "Календарь статистики". Далее в 11:30 МСК мы узнаем о мартовской динамике продаж в Великобритании. Ожидается, что показатель снизился на 0,2% м/м и вырос на 3,4% г/г после повышения на 1,4% м/м и 3,7% г/г соответственно. В 17:00 МСК выйдут мартовские данные по продажам домов на вторичном рынке США. Согласно нашим прогнозам, значение показателя увеличилось с 5,48 млн в феврале до 5,60 млн. Стоит отметить, что в 16:30 МСК состоится выступление главы ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари.

17 апреля, 15:48

Key Events In The Coming Week: French Election, Earnings, Manufacturing, Housing

This week will be dominated by the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. With the number of undecided voters remaining high, four candidates look set to fight for the two places in the second round on 7 May. On the data side, following China's strong economic report, attention will focus on US industrial production growth on Tuesday. In the euro area, flash PMIs for April due on Friday could point to moderation. In the UK, retail sales (Friday) should have dropped in March as rising inflation eats into real income growth. On Friday, the World Bank and IMF Spring meetings also start. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Monday. Focusing on the US, after lacklustre readings in January and February, industrial production data in March may finally have exhibited the kind of strength seen in the ISM factory index. Output readings early this year were held down by sharp declines in utilities output, which reflected unseasonably warm weather, but utilities output looks set to have jumped noticeably, which should help to drive the headline figure higher. Meanwhile, existing home sales may have climbed in March, although the expected gain was likely due in part to the unusually warm temperatures in February, which boosted demand in that month and may have propelling contract closings higher last month. The key this week will be in France on Sunday where the first round of the French Presidential election takes place. Official exit polls are due at 8PM CET. The 11 candidates are then whittled down to two, with the second round runoff held two weeks later on 7 May. On the data front, it looks to be a quiet week. We expect softer numbers in Friday’s flash PMI release while consumer confidence should also moderate. Finally, this is the first busy week for earnings season: with the following companies expected to report results: Energy: SLB Heatlhcare: JNJ, UNH, ISRG, ABT Tech: NFLX, IBM, EBAY, QCOM, VZ Real Estate: D.R. Horton, SL Green Materials: CCK, KALU, PPG, SHW, STLD Industrials: United Air, CSX, GE, Honeywell Financials: BAC, GS, RF Consumer: GNC, MAT, PM, SHOO Finally, a full breakdown of the key daily events with consensus estimates, via Goldman Monday, April 17 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, April (consensus +15.0, last +16.4) 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, April (consensus 70, last 71): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index to edge down by 1pt in April from a post-crisis high of 71, after a strong report in March showed broad-based strengthening across all components and regions. 05:00 PM Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give the Inaugural Lecture on Central Banking at the Columbia School of International and Public Affairs. The topic of his remarks will be “Monetary Policy Communication”. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, February (last +$110.4bn) Tuesday, April 18 08:30 AM Housing starts, March (GS -6.0%, consensus -2.8%, last +3.0%); Building permits, March (consensus +2.8%, last -6.0%): March weather featured above-average snowfall and a drop in seasonally adjusted temperatures. Additionally, the level of multifamily starts now appears elevated relative to permits, and we see signs of potential oversupply in that segment. At the same time, we believe favorable single-family fundamentals should help mitigate the winter storm impact as well as the negative impact of higher interest rates on single-family starts. Taken together, we expect a 6% drop in housing starts, reversing the 3.0% rise in February. 09:00 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on “The Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy” at the 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference at the Levy Economic Institute of Bard College in New York. 09:15 AM Industrial production, March (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.1%); Manufacturing production, March (GS -0.1%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.5%); Capacity utilization, March (GS +76.4 %, consensus +76.2%, last +75.9%): We estimate industrial production increased 0.9% in March, likely reflecting a sharp pickup in utilities output due to a sharp drop in seasonally adjusted temperatures. We estimate manufacturing production declined 0.1%, reflecting a pullback in motor vehicle production partially offset by modest growth in ex-auto manufacturing output. Wednesday, April 19 12:30 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren will give a speech on “The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and Monetary Policy” at the 26th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference at the Levy Economic Institute of Bard College in New York. 02:00 PM Beige Book, May FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The March Beige Book reported that activity continued to expand across all districts, showing steady improvement. Consumer spending improved modestly, manufacturing activity strengthened somewhat, and the energy sector showed modest signs of improvement. In the May Beige Book, we look for additional anecdotes related to the state of consumption, manufacturing activity, price inflation, and wage growth. Thursday, April 20 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 15 (GS 245k, consensus 240k, last 234k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 8 (last 2,028k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 11k to 245k. Claims have returned to normal levels following two weeks of temporary elevation that likely reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella (which hit the US during the week of March 18). However, the current level of jobless claims now appears abnormally low in a few large states such as New York and Pennsylvania, where we see scope for a rebound. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue. 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, April (GS +26.0, consensus +25.0, last +32.8): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to decline for a second month to +26.0 in April. In the March report, the headline index declined by 10.5pt to +32.8 while all underlying components improved in the March report. The index is likely to remain at levels suggestive of solid expansion in manufacturing activity. 08:00 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated Q&A on “Capital Markets, Growth & the Economy of Tomorrow” at the Global Finance Forum in Washington, D.C. Friday, April 21 09:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a Q&A on the state of the economy and the role of community developers in the financial system at the Hamline University Community Economic Development Symposium in St. Paul, Minnesota. Audience Q&A is expected. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US manufacturing PMI, April preliminary (consensus 53.8, last 53.3) 09:45 AM Markit Flash US services PMI, April preliminary (consensus 53.6, last 52.8) 10:00 AM Existing home sales, March (GS +3.0%, consensus +2.1%, last -3.7%): We look for a 3.0% rebound in March existing homes sales, following last month’s 3.7% drop. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate rebound in closed homes sales, consistent with improvement in February pending homes sales (which represent contract signings). Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Source: SocGen, GS

15 апреля, 00:00

Jamie Dimon is Wrong. Taxpayers Still On Hook for Wall St.

Neel Kashkari, MediumOn April 4, JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon published his annual shareholder letter, much of which focused on public policy and…

13 апреля, 17:08

Trump Talks Down U.S. Dollar: What Lies Ahead for ETFs?

Dollar ETF in focus as Trump talks down U.S. currency again.

12 апреля, 15:11

"The Fed Is Once Again Making A Policy Error"

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Remember a few years back, in the midst of the U.S. QE programs, all the negative talk about how “the Fed would never be able to taper their bond buying?” When Yellen & Co. successfully navigated that hurdle, the doomsayers moved over to, “raising rates will be a disaster for the U.S. economy.” Well, a year and a half later (and after two hikes), the world has not ended. Faced with these two defeats, the chicken little crowd has adopted a new motto. “The Federal Reserve will never be able to reduce their balance sheet,” has now become the war cry for those of bearish persuasion. At times during Yellen’s tenure, I have become concerned when the Federal Reserve tightened too quickly. When the Fed’s rhetoric pushed the U.S. dollar higher at a destabilizing rate, or when the tighter American policy caused oil to crash, I warned the Federal Reserve did not seem to realize their policies’ effect on the rest of the global financial system. I know the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, and yet the Federal Reserve tunes monetary policy for American economic conditions, but there can be no denying the Fed’s relatively hawkish path (especially when compared to other Central Banks), has caused a great degree of stress throughout the world. But here we are; two hikes under the Fed’s belt, the front end of the yield curve pricing in another two for the remainder of the year, and FOMC members introducing plans for a balance sheet wind down. Who’d thunk the S&P 500 would be within spitting distance of all time highs after all of that? If I didn’t know better, I would say the Federal Reserve is accomplishing their goal of withdrawing accommodation without having the whole financial system come crashing down. In a creeping fashion, the Fed is doing what the naysayers said couldn’t be done. I must admit, I am a little surprised it has gone so smoothly. But I wonder if the Federal Reserve isn’t pushing their luck. Last FOMC meeting Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented against the rate hike in part because he felt the Federal Reserve should concentrate on winding down their balance sheet. Given that during the 2008 credit crisis the Fed argued bond purchases during Quantitative Easing was accommodative, it follows that unwinding their balance sheet would be restrictive. Instead of raising rates, Neel felt the Fed should substitute rate hikes with portfolio unwind. Makes sense, and in the week after the meeting, many Fed officials came right out and acknowledged this was a path they were preparing for. Then last week, the third most important person at the Fed (right behind Yellen and Fischer), NY Fed President Bill Dudley said the following: “It wouldn’t surprise me if sometime later this year or sometime in 2018, should the economy perform in line with our expectations, that we’ll start to gradually let securities mature rather than reinvesting them.” “If we start to normalize the balance sheet, that’s a substitute for short-term rate hikes because it would also work in the direction of tightening financial conditions.” “If and when we decide to begin to normalize the balance sheet we might actually decide at the same time to take a little pause in terms of raising short-term interest rates.” I (and many others) wrote a piece about how the Fed was shifting from rate hikes to balance sheet wind down. I argued the Fed would most likely raise two more times (since that was pretty much all baked in) and then proceed to focus on withdrawing accommodation by letting their balance sheet run off. This sort of prudence seemed logical. After all, there has never been a successful winding down of a balance sheet by a Central Bank. We are in uncharted territory. Gently taking their foot off the brake during this dangerous period makes complete sense for the Federal Reserve. No one knows how markets and the economy will react. Better to err on the side of doing no harm, than instead slamming the economy with too much braking. Dudley’s remarks made perfect sense to me, and obviously to the rest of the market as the yield curve steepened and priced in this new reality. Yet for some reason, Dudley did not like the way they were interpreted. In an absolute harebrained move, on Friday Dudley redirected the market. From Bloomberg: Dudley said his March 31 comments that caused bonds to rally and steepened the curve were “misconstrued” by some. A pause “at the time you make the decision on the balance sheet” would be to make sure it “doesn’t turn out to be a bigger decision than you thought you were making. So, I would emphasize the words ‘little pause,”’ Dudley said Talk about sending the market scurrying back. Suddenly the market was no longer just worrying about Fed rate hikes, but the added burden of rate hikes along with balance sheet wind down loom large. So far it seems as if financial markets are taking it in stride, but I wonder how long before the U.S. economy reels from the pressure. Right now we are in an environment where all news, is good news. I understand that the markets make the news, but I was perplexed by Friday’s reaction to the employment report. Even in the face of a terrible number, market participants found ways to spin it bullishly. But famed ex-Merrill Lynch strategist David Rosenberg’s interpretation seems more credible. From Business Insider: The warmest February on record boosted construction jobs two months ago, but hiring cooled again in March, reducing overall employment by 10,000, according to Rosenberg. Winter Storm Stella, which blasted through the Northeast in mid-March, also shaved up to 20,000 jobs off the headline on Friday. “So strip out all the weather impacts, and the payroll figure still would have ended up being well short of the consensus at a mere +128,000,” Rosenberg said. Economists had forecast 180,000 nonfarm payrolls. “Then tack on the downward revisions of 38,000 to the first two months of the year, and the bottom line is that there is no possible way to put lipstick on this pig of a report,” Rosenberg said. “Full stop.” Rosenberg also noted that some of the weaker sectors were those that catered to final consumer demand. Retail lost 29,700 jobs in March after a loss of 34,700 in February. Hiring has declined amid a wave of store closures — about 3,500 stores are expected to close over the next few months. “It may well be that retailing accounts for barely more than 10% of the total employment pie, but keep in mind that it is a sector that caters to 70% of the overall economy known as the American consumer,” Rosenberg said. Heck, even the Fed’s own GDP modeling tool “GDP Now” has been trending lower over the past month. It is now predicting a mere 0.6% growth rate for the 1st quarter. And it’s easy to see why. Loan growth is rolling over. I found this great chart on Twitter from HansMrkts: That’s what raising rates will do. The Fed’s policies are having their effect, but the members of the FOMC are ignoring the data staring them in their face about the actual economy. Instead, they are fretting over the price of stocks and other financial instruments. Yeah, I get it. They let a bubble brew out of control last time, so now they are determined to not let it happen again. So much so, that when Dudley insinuates that the Fed will take a pause in hiking to allow the balance sheet to run down, and instead of the stock market selling off on that news, it rallies, Dudley rushes out to take back the portion of the plan that involves reducing the tightening. Do you really think that if spooz gave up 50 handles on that announcement, Dudley would have bothered to “clarify” his comments about a “little” pause on Friday? Not a f’ng chance. Over the past few years, many market participants have complained that the Federal Reserve changed policy too quickly based on the stock market reaction. I would agree that they seem way too focused on that one aspect of the economy. But if they were too quick to ease on an S&P dip, it’s not unrealistic to expect them to be too quick to tighten on an S&P rip. It’s a ridiculous policy, yet why should we expect anything different from these knobs? We are in the process of the stock market diverging from the economy. Given the Fed’s over eagerness to set monetary policy based on the S&P 500 level, they are pushing too hard on the brake right now. The Fed is once again making a policy error. They are tightening too hard, taking every little bit the market will give them. This occurred in March when they realized they could speed up the tightening pace without upsetting markets. And now it is happening again with Dudley backtracking because he understood the markets could withstand tighter policy. Yet, even though financial markets are rocketing higher, this Fed tightening will hurt the real economy. And it’s only a matter of time before the two converge. Just remember, eventually the alligator got Chubbs… You can’t outrun your destiny.

12 апреля, 12:26

Розничные продажи в Британии снижаются на росте инфляции и медленном росте заработной платы

Влияние на рынок:2Devata TsengДанные рынка труда в Британии за март будут опубликованы в 11:30 МСК, включая изменение числа заявок на пособия по безработице, уровень безработицы ILO (с декабря по февраль), а также данные по среднему уровню заработной платы (с декабря по февраль). Данные, вероятно, повлияют на курс фунта и кроссов с валютой. Пара GBP/USD превышает максимум за 1 месяц на уровне 1.2500 этим утром, чему помогло снижение доллара.Председатель Банка Англии Карни выступит в 11:40 МСК этим утром. Вероятно, его речь даст какие-то намёки о возможных действиях Банка Англии против растущей инфляции, замедления роста оплаты труда и неопределённости вокруг Brexit.Уровень безработицы ILO демонстрировал тренд на снижение с начала 2012 года. Данные по средней заработной плате включая премии и без них (с декабря и по февраль) находились в тренде на рост с 2016 году. Тем не менее в начала этого года, рост среднего уровня оплаты труда исключая премии (с декабря по февраль) замедлился.Британская инфляция в феврале превысила целевые 2% Банка Англии впервые с 2014 года. Опубликованный вчера индекс потребительских цен CPI за март оказался на уровне 2.3%, что соответствовало ожиданиям и прошлой оценке. Базовый CPI за март снизился до 1.8% в марте с 2% в феврале. Последние данные по инфляции показали небольшое замедление тренда на рост; вероятно, этот процесс продолжится и далее. Если темпы роста оплаты труда ниже темпов роста инфляции, в результате потребители будут сокращать свои расходы на одежду, непродовольственные товары и предметы первой необходимости. Это приведёт к замедлению экономического роста.Британский консорциум предприятий розничной торговли (BRC) заявил во вторник о том, что британские розничные продажи упали на 1% в марте в годовом исчислении. Суммарный объем продаж в Британии подрос лишь на 0.1% за период с января по март, таким образом, это минимальный темп роста со времён финансового кризиса. Непродовольственные продажи упали на 0.8% за период с января по март, указывая на крупнейшее снижение почти за 6 лет.Индекс доллара снизился примерно на 0.31% во вторник, отойдя от психологического уровня сопротивления на 101.00 и пробив минимум за 2 дня на уровне 100.49. Этим утром индекс доллара продолжает снижаться, подталкивая стоимость золота вверх; стоимость драгоценного металла на спотовом рынке превысила максимум за 5 месяцев на 1279.67. Голосующий член Комитета по операциям на открытом рынке ФРС США Нил Кашкари был единственным членом, проголосовавшим против повышения ставки в марте. Он настаивал во вторник, что “рынок труда все ещё недостаточно силён, а инфляции ещё нужно вырасти”.Банк Канады объявит своё решение по ставкам после обеда в 17:00 МСК. После выступит председатель Банка Канады Полоз в 23:15 МСК. Хотя канадская экономика демонстрирует улучшения, американские экономические перспективы все ещё окружает неопределённость из-за решений администрации Трампа. Банк Канады, вероятно, сохранит ставки неизменными в ближайшем будущем. В четверг выйдут данные по изменениям в количестве занятых в Австралии, а также уровень безработицы за март в 04:30 МСК. Немецкий индекс потребительских цен CPI за март будет опубликован в 09:00 МСК; вероятно, он повлияет на динамику евро и тренд индекса DAX.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/12042017-roznichnyie-prodazhi-v-britanii-snizhayutsya-na-roste-inflyatsii-i-medlennom-roste-zarabotnoy-platyi/ ..Источник: FxTeam

10 ноября 2015, 20:59

Бывший банкир Goldman Sachs и PIMCO вошел в ФРС США

Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.