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Nomura Research Institute
02 апреля, 21:00

Bitcoin Tops $1100 As Japanese Payments Law Goes Into Effect

After a virtual rollercoaster over the last few weeks, Bitcoin is back above $1100 today as traders anticipate demand with Japan recognizing bitcoin as a legal method of payment starting yesterday. A weak dollar has helped the bounce back from SEC's ETF decision and fears about the fork but demand from Japanese consumers has sparked the most recent push back up to $1100... As Coindesk reports, the country's legislature passed a law, following months of debate, that brought bitcoin exchanges under anti-money laundering/know-your-customer rules, while also categorizing bitcoin as a kind of prepaid payment instrument. It's a debate that began in the wake of the collapse of Mt Gox, the now-defunct bitcoin exchange that shuttered after months of growing complications and, in the end, revelations of insolvency and alleged fraud. According to Japan’s Financial Services Agency, that law went into effect on 1st April, putting in place capital requirements for exchanges as well as cybersecurity and operational stipulations. In addition, those exchanges will also be required to conduct employee training programs and submit to annual audits. Yet there may be more work to come in this area. For example, Nomura Research Institute's Yasutake Okano indicated in a May 2016 report that other Japanese laws may need to change to account for the tech, including the Banking Act and Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Reports indicate that other groups in Japan are moving to plug some of those gaps as well. According to a report from Nikkei, the Accounting Standards Board of Japan decided earlier this week to begin developing standards for digital currencies like bitcoin. Its work mirrors other efforts being undertaken elsewhere, including Australia, which began pushing for such standards late last year.

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26 декабря 2016, 05:59

BRIEF-Nomura Research Institute completes acquisition of ASG Group

* Says it completes full acquisition of 100 percent stake in ASG Group Ltd for totaling 27.43 billion yen on Dec. 23

12 декабря 2016, 12:48

BRIEF-Asg Group says court approved scheme of arrangement

* court approved scheme of arrangement under which nomura research institute will acquire 100% of issued capital of asg (scheme) Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

08 декабря 2016, 21:48

Власть денег: главные вызовы для мировой экономики в 2017 году

Результаты президентских выборов в США, брексит, девальвация юаня и усиление роли России на международной арене окажут ключевое влияние на мировую экономику в 2017 году. Это утверждают аналитики одного из самых влиятельных консалтинговых агентств Nomura Research Institute в ежегодном рейтинге «10 серых лебедей: Главные вызовы для мировой экономики». RT рассказывает о значимых событиях в экономике, которые должны понять, принять и переосмыслить как аналитики, так и участники рынка.Читать далее

08 декабря 2016, 21:15

Власть денег: главные вызовы для мировой экономики в 2017 году

Результаты президентских выборов в США, брексит, девальвация юаня и усиление роли России на международной арене окажут ключевое влияние на мировую экономику в 2017 году. Это утверждают аналитики одного из самых влиятельных консалтинговых агентств Nomura Research Institute в ежегодном рейтинге «10 серых лебедей: Главные вызовы для мировой экономики». RT рассказывает о значимых событиях в экономике, которые должны понять, принять и переосмыслить как аналитики, так и участники рынка. Читать далее

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08 декабря 2016, 09:45

BRIEF-ASG says shareholders voted in favour of Nomura Research Institute's acquisition proposal

* Eligible ASG shareholders voted in favour of proposal by Nomura Research Institute to acquire all of ordinary shares in ASG Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

19 сентября 2016, 23:46

The World’s Most Important Central Bank (It’s Not The Fed)

Ever since the Great Recession, the world economy has been suffering from a malaise that has come to be known as the “New Normal”; one where real activity is weaker

22 июля 2016, 01:05

Текст: Стереотип о всемогущем центральном банке поддерживать все сложнее ( Тим Прайс )

Первой была Япония. Пятнадцать лет назад мы встречались с японским управляющим акциями, который сделал поразительное предсказание: «В Японии была генеральная репетиция. Основное представление развернется в остальном мире». Сегодня это предположение уже не кажется чем-то из ряда вон выходящим. После того как в Японии лопнул надувшийся в конце 1980-х гг. гигантский пузырь на рынках недвижимости и акций, а затем разразился банковский кризис, страна стала гигантской лабораторией для невиданного ранее эксперимента с денежной политикой. Процентные ставки были снижены почти до нуля. А в 2001 г. Банк Японии попробовал денежное стимулирование, или количественное смягчение (QE). Ричард Ку из Nomura Research Institute назвал это «самым бессмысленным меропр...

19 июля 2016, 11:52

Sovereignman.com: Вся финансовая система подвергается риску со стороны этого рынка “мусорных” облигаций

Автор Tim Price. Япония была пионером. Пятнадцать лет назад мы встречались с японским управляющим активами, и он сделал шокирующий прогноз: “Япония – это генеральная репетиция. Главным спектаклем станет остальной мир.” Тогда это заявление казалось преувеличением. Сегодня так больше не кажется.…читать далее →

06 декабря 2015, 21:15

Половину рабочих мест в Японии к 2035 году могут занять роботы

Дата-анализ крупнейшей японской консалтинговой IT-компании Nomura Research Institute (NRI) под руководством Юми Вакао показал, что в течение следующих ближайших 20 лет почти половина рабочих мест в Японии могут быть заняты роботами. Проведя совместную работу с […]

06 декабря 2015, 16:56

ПОЧТИ ПОЛОВИНУ РАБОЧИХ МЕСТ В ЯПОНИИ К 2035 ГОДУ МОГУТ ЗАНЯТЬ РОБОТЫ

Дата-анализ крупнейшей японской консалтинговой IT-компании Nomura Research Institute (NRI) под руководством Юми Вакао показал, что в течение следующих ближайших 20 лет почти половина рабочих мест в Японии могут быть заняты роботами. Проведя совместную работу с профессором Оксфордского университета Майклом Осборном, проводившим аналогичное исследование в США и Великобритании, команда исследователей из NRI изучила более 600 различных профессий. «Мы обнаружили, что до 49 процентов рабочих задач, которые в настоящий момент выполняются человеком, можно будет переложить на компьютерные системы», — говорит Вакао. Команда изучила то, каким образом, в зависимости от требуемой креативности, та или иная профессия может быть автоматизирована. Ученые выяснили, что задачи по обеспечению клиентской поддержки, доставке товаров и продовольствий, а также ведение сельскохозяйственного производства наиболее предрасположены к компьютеризации. Менее всего предрасположены к полной автоматизации, в свою очередь, оказались сфера обучения, литературное творчество, а также медицина. Вероятнее всего, людям с профессиями в этих сферах меньше всего стоит беспокоится о том, что в ближайшем будущем их смогут заменить роботы. Как бы там ни было, результаты анализа NRI оказались выше, чем показали цифры, связанные с рабочими сферами в США (47 процентов рабочих мест можно заменить роботами) и Великобритании (35 процентов рабочих можно заменить на роботов). «Не стоит принимать слишком серьезно этот анализ. Это лишь гипотетические вычисления. В них не учитываются социальные аспекты», — говорит Вакао. Что же касается самих японцев, то, как показывает статистика, люди более-менее спокойно относятся к приближающейся компьютерной и роботехнической революции, считая, что она позволит снизить экономическое давление на быстро стареющее население и в то же время освободит многих людей от неинтересной работы, позволив заниматься более креативными (и более прибыльными) занятиями.

05 июля 2015, 00:17

Quote of the Day › The quality of buildings is high while investment opportunities are abundant, unlike Singapore or Hong Kong where the number of available properties is limited. In that sense, Tokyo is one of the best destinations for investment.

Tomohiko Taniyama, a senior researcher at Nomura Research Institute Ltd. Realty agencies in Beijing are organizing twice-monthly tours to Tokyo and Osaka, where 40 Chinese at a time come for three-day property-shopping trips, seeking safe places to invest their cash abroad. (Bloomberg)

02 января 2015, 22:06

If Quantitative Easing Works, Why Has It Failed to Kick-Start Inflation?

Illustration by William Banzai QE Has Failed to Spark Inflation Quantitative easing (QE) was supposed to stimulate the economy and pull us out of deflation. But the third round of quantitative easing (“QE3″) in the U.S. failed to raise inflation expectations. And QE hasn’t worked in Japan, either. The Wall Street Journal noted in 2010: Nearly a decade after Japan’s central bank first experimented with the policy, the country remains mired in deflation, a general decline in wages and prices that has crippled its economy. *** The BOJ began doing quantitative easing in 2001. It had become clear that pushing interest rates down near zero for an extended period had failed to get the economy moving. After five years of gradually expanding its bond purchases, the bank dropped the effort in 2006. At first, it appeared the program had succeeded in stabilizing the economy and halting the slide in prices. But deflation returned with a vengeance over the past two years, putting the Bank of Japan back on the spot. So why didn’t quantitative easing work in Japan? Critics say the Japanese central bank wasn’t aggressive enough in launching and expanding its bond-buying program—then dropped it too soon. *** Others say Japan simply waited too long to resort to the policy. But Japan has since gone “all in” on staggering levels of quantitative easing … and yet is still mired in deflation. The UK engaged in substantial QE. But inflation rates are falling there as well. And China engaged in massive amounts of QE. But it’s also falling into deflation. Indeed, despite massive QE by the U.S., Japan and China, there is now a worldwide risk of deflation. So why hasn’t it worked? Traders Weigh In Financial commentator, trader, and inventor of high-frequency trading Max Keiser has argued for months that QE’s failure can be explained by the following 4 steps: (1) QE throws easy cash at the zombie banks (2) The big banks use the easy cash to speculate instead of becoming more stable … or lending out to Main Street (3) The speculation and lack of lending decreases the vitality of the real (Main Street) economy (4) This leads to deflation, rather than inflation There’s some evidence that Keiser’s right. Forecaster and trader Martin Armstrong writes today: The evolution of the monetary system of Rome illustrates how empires rise. It also reflects that the dominant economy’s currency is ALWAYS used by surrounding nations. Consequently, history demonstrates WHY in fact QE1-3 failed to produce inflation for the dollars created were absorbed globally. Theories that only view the dollar from a domestic isolated perspective are incorrect and will always fail for that is not what history teaches us if we take the time to listen. In other words, Armstrong argues that QE falsely assumes that printed money will stay in the national economy ... but printed dollars end up abroad. He explained earlier this week: The expansion of the money supply of dollar has FAILED to produce any inflation BECAUSE the old theories have failed to take into consideration the global nature of the world economy and its demand for the currency of the current Financial Capital of the World. *** The US cannot print enough money to meet the world demands. There's some evidence that Armstrong is right. Economists Weigh In Neither Keiser nor Armstrong are trained economists.  But several high-powered economists have weighed in on the question. Ed Yardeni – a former Federal Reserve economist who held positions at the Fed’s Board of Governors and the Treasury Department, who served as Chief Investment Strategist for Deutsche Bank, and was Chief Economist for C.J. Lawrence, Prudential Securities, and E.F. Hutton – notes that economists including Ben Bernanke have known for 20 years that there is no transmission mechanism by which QE stimulates the real economy. The Telegraph noted in June: The question is why the world economy cannot seem to shake off this “lowflation” malaise, even after QE on unprecedented scale by the US, Britain, Japan and in its own way Switzerland. *** Narayana Kocherlakota, the Minneapolis Fed chief, suggested as far back as 2011 that zero rates and QE may perversely be the cause of deflation, not the cure that everybody thought. This caused consternation, and he quickly retreated. Stephen Williamson, from the St Louis Fed, picked up the refrain last November in a paper entitled “Liquidity Premia and the Monetary Policy Trap”, arguing that that the Fed’s actions are pulling down the “liquidity premium” on government bonds (by buying so many). This in turn is pulling down inflation. The more the policy fails – he argues – the more the Fed doubles down, thinking it must do more. That too caused a storm. The theme refuses to go away. India’s central bank chief, Raghuram Rajan, says QE is a beggar-thy-neighbour devaluation policy in thin disguise. The West’s QE caused a flood of hot capital into emerging markets hunting for yield, stoking destructive booms that these countries could not easily control. The result was an interest rate regime that was too lax for the world as a whole, leaving even more economies in a mess than before as they too have to cope with post-bubble hangovers. The West ignored pleas for restraint at the time, then left these countries to fend for themselves. The lesson they have drawn is to tighten policy, hoard demand, hold down their currencies and keep building up foreign reserves as a safety buffer. The net effect is to perpetuate the “global savings glut” that has starved the world of demand, and that some say is the underlying of the cause of the long slump. “I fear that in a world with weak aggregate demand, we may be engaged in a futile competition for a greater share of it,” he said. The Bank for International Settlements [the “central banks’ central bank”] says the world is suffering from addiction to stimulus. “The result is expansionary in the short run but contractionary over the longer term. As policy-makers respond asymmetrically over successive financial cycles, hardly tightening or even easing during booms and easing aggressively and persistently during busts, they run out of ammunition and entrench instability. Low rates, paradoxically, validate themselves,” it said. Claudio Borio, the BIS’s chief economist, says this refusal to let the business cycle run its course and to purge bad debts is corrosive. The habit of turning on the liquidity spigot at the first hint of trouble leads to “time inconsistency”. It steals growth and prosperity from the future, and pulls the interest rate structure far below its (Wicksellian) natural rate. “The risk is that the global economy may be in a deceptively stable disequilibrium,” he said. Mr Borio worries what will happen when the next downturn hits. “So far, institutional set-ups have proved remarkably resilient to the huge shock of the Great Financial Crisis and its tumultuous aftermath. But could (they) withstand yet another shock?” he said. “There are troubling signs that globalisation may be in retreat. There is a risk of yet another epoch-defining and disruptive seismic shift in the underlying economic regimes. This would usher in an era of financial and trade protectionism. It has happened before, and it could happen again,” he said. The Economist reported last year: Is QE deflationary? Yes, quite obviously so. Consider: A central bank that is deploying QE is almost certainly at the zero lower bound. QE will only help get an economy off the zero lower bound if paired with a commitment to higher future inflation. If a central bank is deploying QE over a long period of time, that means it has not paired QE with a commitment to higher future inflation. Prolonged QE is effectively a signal that the central bank is unwilling commit to higher inflation. QE therefore reinforces expectations that economic activity will run below potential and demand shocks will not be completely offset. QE will be associated with a general disinflationary trend. Don’t believe me? Here is a chart of 5-year breakevens since September of 2012, when the Fed began QE3, the first asset-purchase plan with no set end date:  (The article then goes onto say that QE can be deflationary or inflationary depending on what else the central bank is doing.) Michala Marcussen – global head of economics at Société Générale – believes that QE may be deflationary in the long run because: Excess capacity is deflationary and the means to deal with it is to shut it down. Indeed, we expect China [which also engaged in massive QE] for now to exert deflationary pressure on the global economy. *** Unproductive investment is by nature ultimately deflationary. This is a point also worth recalling when investing in paper assets fuelled by QE liquidity and not underpinned by sustainable economic growth. Prominent economist John Cochrane thinks he knows why. As he explained last year: Here I graphed an interest rate rise from 0 to 5% (blue dash) and the possible equilibrium values for inflation (red). (I used ?=1 ?=1 ). As you can see, it’s perfectly possible, despite the price-stickiness of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve, to see the super-neutral result, inflation rises instantly. *** Obviously this is not the last word. But, it’s interesting how easy it is to get positive inflation out of an interest rate rise in this simple new-Keynesian model with price stickiness. So, to sum up, the world is different. Lessons learned in the past do not necessarily apply to the interest on ample excess reserves world to which we are (I hope!) headed. The mechanisms that prescribe a negative response of inflation to interest rate increases are a lot more tenuous than you might have thought. Given the downward drift in inflation, it’s an idea that’s worth playing with. Bloomberg noted in November: Now, the Neo-Fisherites [including Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota] have been joined by a very heavy hitter — University of Chicago economist John Cochrane. In a new paper called “Monetary Policy with Interest on Reserves,” he explains a mechanism by which higher interest rates raise inflation. Unlike Williamson’s model, Cochrane’s model obtains a Neo-Fisherian result without appealing to fiscal policy. In fact, he finds that in some cases, raising interest rates can even stimulate the economy in the short term! He concludes succinctly: The basic logic is pretty simple: raising nominal interest rates either raises inflation or raises real interest rates. If it raises real interest rates, it must raise consumption growth. The prediction is only counterintuitive because for so long we have persuaded ourselves of the opposite[.] Cochrane has a simple explanation of the model’s key predictions on his blog. He hypothesizes that now that the Fed pays interest on the reserves that banks hold with the Fed, monetary policy will be even more Neo-Fisherian — i.e., even more perverse. *** Cochrane’s arguments are based on simple equations that are at the heart of most modern macroeconomic models. If the Neo-Fisherites are right, then everything the Fed has been doing to try to stimulate the economy isn’t just useless — it’s backward. Now, the overwhelming majority of empirical studies tell us that QE, and Fed easing in general, tends to raise inflation in the short term. But what if that’s at the cost of lower inflation in the long term? Japan has been holding interest rates at zero for many years, and its economy has been in and out of deflation. Massive QE has noticeably failed to make the U.S. hit its 2 percent inflation target. What if mainstream macroeconomics has it all upside down, and prolonged periods of low interest rates trap us in a kind of secular stagnation that is totally different from the kind Harvard economist Larry Summers talks about? It’s a disquieting thought. One of the main architects of Japan’s QE program – Richard Koo – Chief Economist at the Nomura Research Institute – explains that QE helps in the short-run … but hurts the economy in the long run (via Business Insider): Initially, long-term interest rates fall much more than they would in a country without such a policy, which means the subsequent economic recovery comes sooner (t1). But as the economy picks up, long-term rates rise sharply as local bond market participants fear the central bank will have to mop up all the excess reserves by unloading its holdings of long-term bonds.  Demand then falls in interest rate sensitive sectors such as automobiles and housing, causing the economy to slow and forcing the central bank to relax its policy stance. The economy heads towards recovery again, but as market participants refocus on the possibility of the central bank absorbing excess reserves, long-term rates surge in a repetitive cycle I have dubbed the QE “trap.” In countries that do not engage in quantitative easing, meanwhile, the decline in long-term rates is more gradual, which delays the start of the recovery (t2). But since there is no need for the central bank to mop up large quantities of funds, everybody is no more relaxed once the recovery starts, and the rise in long-term rates is far more gradual. Once the economy starts to turn around, the pace of recovery is actually faster because interest rates are lower. This is illustrated in Figure 2. Indeed, things which temporarily goose the economy in the short-run often kill it in the long-run … such as suppressing volatility. Postscript: Quantitative easing fails in many other ways, as well … The original inventor of QE – and the former long-term head of the Federal Reserve– say that QE has failed to help the economy. Numerous academic studies confirm this. And see this. Economists also note that QE helps the rich … but hurts the little guy. QE is one of the main causes of inequality (and see this and this). And economists now admit that runaway inequality cripples the economy. So QE indirectly hurts the economy by fueling runaway inequality. A high-level Federal Reserve official says QE is “the greatest backdoor Wall Street bailout of all time”. And the “Godfather” of Japan’s monetary policy admits that it “is a Ponzi game”. Note: Financial experts have been debating since the start of the 2008 financial crisis whether inflation or deflation is the bigger risk. That debate is beyond the scope of this essay. However, it might not be either/or. We might instead have “MixedFlation” … inflation is some asset classes and deflation in others.    

30 декабря 2014, 00:30

25 Years After The "Top" In Japan, Have We Learned Anything?

The Japanese stock market reached its all-time-high on December 29th 1998, and as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts were still looking forward to another strong year for shares in 1990, despite some signs of danger. Reading through the headline on that day suggests, 25 years later, investors and talking-heads have learned absolutely nothing...  h/t @RudyHavenstein The article was published Jan. 2, 1990. Tokyo Stocks: Japan’s Believers Expect Surge in Stocks to Continue  TOKYO–Japan’s stock market spawns two kinds of investors: believers and skeptics. The believers are getting rich. The skeptics are getting sore. For much of the past decade, the world’s biggest stock market has stumped the skeptics. Price-earnings ratios are astronomical. The differential between interest rates and corporate earnings is wide. Yet just when the market seems most top-heavy, it heads even higher. The skeptics’ experience has been a litany of missed opportunities, and last year was no exception. The year-end rout many analysts feared in the bumpy days after the Oct. 13 slump turned into a record-stomping rally. For believers, Japan’s stock market has been a money-spinner. Daiwa Securities Co. estimates that $100 invested in Japan’s market in 1981 would have generated capital gains worth nearly $650 today at prevailing exchange rates. The same amount invested on Wall Street would have earned $185 above the initial $100 invested. As Tokyo’s market gallops into the Year of the Horse, the skeptics once again are wondering how long the market’s advance can continue. The believers are betting that it won’t slow anytime soon-and the consensus emerging from 1990 forecasts supports them. Even cautious predictions call for the Nikkei Index to end 1990 above the 45000-point level, climbing from its 1989 close of 38916. Other markets may perform better — and many did in 1989 — but few trend so chronically higher. “We’re looking for another good year,” says Lawrence S. Praeger, chief strategist for Nikko Securities Co. Adds Christopher Russell, manager of research at Jardine Fleming Securities Co.: “The market looks well set.” Behind such uniform optimism are many of the same fundamental struts that supported the 1989 market. The economy is expected to grow nearly 5% in the year ending March 30, and many economists already are predicting growth of more than 4% for the following year. Also, recurring corporate profits will grow about 11% in both years, according to forecasts by Nomura Research Institute 4307.TO +0.13%. “The outlook is extremely good,” says Pelham Smithers, a research analyst at Shearson Lehman Hutton Inc.’s Tokyo office. Even the risk of a long-term decline, he notes, appears more limited than it was in 1989. That’s mainly because some of the key negatives that sapped the market’s strength at times won’t recur. Last year, for instance, the market was hurt by a prolonged slowdown in market speculation and economic activity caused by the January death and February funeral of Emperor Hirohito. The market was then dragged lower at midyear by a series of political scandals. And external events took a toll, with the crackdown in Beijing weakening investor confidence in companies with ties to China. Most of those market pitfalls were temporary. True, there is the chance of political trouble in February, when Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu is expected to call a general election. But polls suggest his Liberal Democratic Party has been getting stronger, not weaker. Any gain by the party surely would aid market sentiment. Yet there are a handful of danger signs that investors must guard against, analysts say. “The biggest negative for the market would be if the dollar picks up,” says Shearson’s Mr. Smithers. A weaker yen would increase the price of imports, fueling consumer-price inflation — which is expected to rise more than the government’s estimate of 2% this year in Japan. That might force the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which would tend to discourage stock market investment. Moreover, some analysts worry that a weaker yen would exacerbate Japan’s trade surplus with the U.S. and might trigger protectionist measures by Washington. That kind of fight could hurt a lot of companies and send the market into a slide. Any signs of these factors could be enough to send Japan’s institutional investors scurrying into cash. And because big investors, who tend to act in unison in Japan, are such major forces, that could set off a broad decline. It’s that vulnerability that has caused some skeptics to miss out on some of the Tokyo market’s broad gains. The skeptics fret that the price of Japanese stocks averages more than 60 times the issuing company’s per-share earnings. That price-earnings ratio is more than four times the U.S. average. And the differential between the yield available on short-term interest-bearing instruments, such as certificates of deposit, and the average earnings yield of Japanese stocks, is nearly 4% — high by historical standards. These days, though, instead of analyzing why those numbers point to a collapse in share prices, more analysts are trying to explain how, with no wires apparently attached, stocks are still flying. For instance, Paul H. Aron, vice chairman emeritus of Daiwa Securities America Inc., is the beacon of a movement that aims to show that differences in corporate accounting and business practices account for most of Japan’s high P-E ratios. If the ratios were adjusted for the differences, he says, Japan’s average P-E ratio would have been about 17.5 at the end of August, against a U.S. average of 13.5. Another factor that boosts stocks is rotational buying. Instead of buying across all sectors, Japanese investors tend to look for special circumstances that will help one sector or another. Stocks that might benefit from a reduction in tensions with the East bloc or from economic cooperation with the Soviet Union rallied strongly in the last quarter of 1989 and are expected to continue advancing. “In between the sector rallies, there could be some cooling down,” says Robert Jameson, an executive at Dresdner Bank’s Tokyo brokerage unit. “But a year is a long time in the Tokyo market, and it won’t stay cool for long.” * * * It's never different this time     

17 декабря 2014, 17:11

Buttonwood: Let’s get fiscal

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  Past and future tense Fly Title:  Buttonwood Rubric:  A new book from a prescient economist Main image:  20141220_FND001_0.jpg WHAT is the Japanese word for Schadenfreude? For much of the late 1990s and early 2000s, Western economists and politicians were happy to lecture the Japanese government about the mistakes it made in the aftermath of its asset bubble. But six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank whose demise triggered the financial crisis, many Western economies are still struggling to generate decent growth. Their central banks are being forced to keep interest rates close to zero. Yields on government bonds in Europe, as in Japan, have sunk to record lows. Some economists are talking of a new era of “secular stagnation”. A new book* from Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute argues that the West has made glaring errors too. “We are experiencing not only an economic crisis but also a crisis in economics,” he ...

17 декабря 2014, 17:11

Buttonwood: Let’s get fiscal

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  Past and future tense Fly Title:  Buttonwood Rubric:  A new book from a prescient economist Main image:  20141220_FND001_0.jpg WHAT is the Japanese word for Schadenfreude? For much of the late 1990s and early 2000s, Western economists and politicians were happy to lecture the Japanese government about the mistakes it made in the aftermath of its asset bubble. But six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank whose demise triggered the financial crisis, many Western economies are still struggling to generate decent growth. Their central banks are being forced to keep interest rates close to zero. Yields on government bonds in Europe, as in Japan, have sunk to record lows. Some economists are talking of a new era of “secular stagnation”. A new book* from Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute argues that the West has made glaring errors too. “We are experiencing not only an economic crisis but also a crisis in economics,” he ...

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04 декабря 2014, 11:59

Europe’s Remedies for Japanization

Weak growth and slowing inflation could have Europeans afraid of repeating Japan’s mistakes. While the symptoms are similar, Europe’s remedy must be a little different, says Nomura Research Institute’s chief economist Richard Koo.