• Теги
    • избранные теги
    • Компании51
      • Показать ещё
      Разное32
      • Показать ещё
      Страны / Регионы22
      • Показать ещё
      Формат3
      Показатели7
      Издания5
      Сферы1
      Люди3
      Международные организации2
Nomura Research Institute
Выбор редакции
26 декабря 2016, 05:59

BRIEF-Nomura Research Institute completes acquisition of ASG Group

* Says it completes full acquisition of 100 percent stake in ASG Group Ltd for totaling 27.43 billion yen on Dec. 23

12 декабря 2016, 12:48

BRIEF-Asg Group says court approved scheme of arrangement

* court approved scheme of arrangement under which nomura research institute will acquire 100% of issued capital of asg (scheme) Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

08 декабря 2016, 21:48

Власть денег: главные вызовы для мировой экономики в 2017 году

Результаты президентских выборов в США, брексит, девальвация юаня и усиление роли России на международной арене окажут ключевое влияние на мировую экономику в 2017 году. Это утверждают аналитики одного из самых влиятельных консалтинговых агентств Nomura Research Institute в ежегодном рейтинге «10 серых лебедей: Главные вызовы для мировой экономики». RT рассказывает о значимых событиях в экономике, которые должны понять, принять и переосмыслить как аналитики, так и участники рынка.Читать далее

08 декабря 2016, 21:15

Власть денег: главные вызовы для мировой экономики в 2017 году

Результаты президентских выборов в США, брексит, девальвация юаня и усиление роли России на международной арене окажут ключевое влияние на мировую экономику в 2017 году. Это утверждают аналитики одного из самых влиятельных консалтинговых агентств Nomura Research Institute в ежегодном рейтинге «10 серых лебедей: Главные вызовы для мировой экономики». RT рассказывает о значимых событиях в экономике, которые должны понять, принять и переосмыслить как аналитики, так и участники рынка. Читать далее

Выбор редакции
08 декабря 2016, 09:45

BRIEF-ASG says shareholders voted in favour of Nomura Research Institute's acquisition proposal

* Eligible ASG shareholders voted in favour of proposal by Nomura Research Institute to acquire all of ordinary shares in ASG Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage:

19 сентября 2016, 23:46

The World’s Most Important Central Bank (It’s Not The Fed)

Ever since the Great Recession, the world economy has been suffering from a malaise that has come to be known as the “New Normal”; one where real activity is weaker

22 июля 2016, 01:05

Текст: Стереотип о всемогущем центральном банке поддерживать все сложнее ( Тим Прайс )

Первой была Япония. Пятнадцать лет назад мы встречались с японским управляющим акциями, который сделал поразительное предсказание: «В Японии была генеральная репетиция. Основное представление развернется в остальном мире». Сегодня это предположение уже не кажется чем-то из ряда вон выходящим. После того как в Японии лопнул надувшийся в конце 1980-х гг. гигантский пузырь на рынках недвижимости и акций, а затем разразился банковский кризис, страна стала гигантской лабораторией для невиданного ранее эксперимента с денежной политикой. Процентные ставки были снижены почти до нуля. А в 2001 г. Банк Японии попробовал денежное стимулирование, или количественное смягчение (QE). Ричард Ку из Nomura Research Institute назвал это «самым бессмысленным меропр...

19 июля 2016, 11:52

Sovereignman.com: Вся финансовая система подвергается риску со стороны этого рынка “мусорных” облигаций

Автор Tim Price. Япония была пионером. Пятнадцать лет назад мы встречались с японским управляющим активами, и он сделал шокирующий прогноз: “Япония – это генеральная репетиция. Главным спектаклем станет остальной мир.” Тогда это заявление казалось преувеличением. Сегодня так больше не кажется.…читать далее →

30 декабря 2014, 00:30

25 Years After The "Top" In Japan, Have We Learned Anything?

The Japanese stock market reached its all-time-high on December 29th 1998, and as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts were still looking forward to another strong year for shares in 1990, despite some signs of danger. Reading through the headline on that day suggests, 25 years later, investors and talking-heads have learned absolutely nothing...  h/t @RudyHavenstein The article was published Jan. 2, 1990. Tokyo Stocks: Japan’s Believers Expect Surge in Stocks to Continue  TOKYO–Japan’s stock market spawns two kinds of investors: believers and skeptics. The believers are getting rich. The skeptics are getting sore. For much of the past decade, the world’s biggest stock market has stumped the skeptics. Price-earnings ratios are astronomical. The differential between interest rates and corporate earnings is wide. Yet just when the market seems most top-heavy, it heads even higher. The skeptics’ experience has been a litany of missed opportunities, and last year was no exception. The year-end rout many analysts feared in the bumpy days after the Oct. 13 slump turned into a record-stomping rally. For believers, Japan’s stock market has been a money-spinner. Daiwa Securities Co. estimates that $100 invested in Japan’s market in 1981 would have generated capital gains worth nearly $650 today at prevailing exchange rates. The same amount invested on Wall Street would have earned $185 above the initial $100 invested. As Tokyo’s market gallops into the Year of the Horse, the skeptics once again are wondering how long the market’s advance can continue. The believers are betting that it won’t slow anytime soon-and the consensus emerging from 1990 forecasts supports them. Even cautious predictions call for the Nikkei Index to end 1990 above the 45000-point level, climbing from its 1989 close of 38916. Other markets may perform better — and many did in 1989 — but few trend so chronically higher. “We’re looking for another good year,” says Lawrence S. Praeger, chief strategist for Nikko Securities Co. Adds Christopher Russell, manager of research at Jardine Fleming Securities Co.: “The market looks well set.” Behind such uniform optimism are many of the same fundamental struts that supported the 1989 market. The economy is expected to grow nearly 5% in the year ending March 30, and many economists already are predicting growth of more than 4% for the following year. Also, recurring corporate profits will grow about 11% in both years, according to forecasts by Nomura Research Institute 4307.TO +0.13%. “The outlook is extremely good,” says Pelham Smithers, a research analyst at Shearson Lehman Hutton Inc.’s Tokyo office. Even the risk of a long-term decline, he notes, appears more limited than it was in 1989. That’s mainly because some of the key negatives that sapped the market’s strength at times won’t recur. Last year, for instance, the market was hurt by a prolonged slowdown in market speculation and economic activity caused by the January death and February funeral of Emperor Hirohito. The market was then dragged lower at midyear by a series of political scandals. And external events took a toll, with the crackdown in Beijing weakening investor confidence in companies with ties to China. Most of those market pitfalls were temporary. True, there is the chance of political trouble in February, when Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu is expected to call a general election. But polls suggest his Liberal Democratic Party has been getting stronger, not weaker. Any gain by the party surely would aid market sentiment. Yet there are a handful of danger signs that investors must guard against, analysts say. “The biggest negative for the market would be if the dollar picks up,” says Shearson’s Mr. Smithers. A weaker yen would increase the price of imports, fueling consumer-price inflation — which is expected to rise more than the government’s estimate of 2% this year in Japan. That might force the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, which would tend to discourage stock market investment. Moreover, some analysts worry that a weaker yen would exacerbate Japan’s trade surplus with the U.S. and might trigger protectionist measures by Washington. That kind of fight could hurt a lot of companies and send the market into a slide. Any signs of these factors could be enough to send Japan’s institutional investors scurrying into cash. And because big investors, who tend to act in unison in Japan, are such major forces, that could set off a broad decline. It’s that vulnerability that has caused some skeptics to miss out on some of the Tokyo market’s broad gains. The skeptics fret that the price of Japanese stocks averages more than 60 times the issuing company’s per-share earnings. That price-earnings ratio is more than four times the U.S. average. And the differential between the yield available on short-term interest-bearing instruments, such as certificates of deposit, and the average earnings yield of Japanese stocks, is nearly 4% — high by historical standards. These days, though, instead of analyzing why those numbers point to a collapse in share prices, more analysts are trying to explain how, with no wires apparently attached, stocks are still flying. For instance, Paul H. Aron, vice chairman emeritus of Daiwa Securities America Inc., is the beacon of a movement that aims to show that differences in corporate accounting and business practices account for most of Japan’s high P-E ratios. If the ratios were adjusted for the differences, he says, Japan’s average P-E ratio would have been about 17.5 at the end of August, against a U.S. average of 13.5. Another factor that boosts stocks is rotational buying. Instead of buying across all sectors, Japanese investors tend to look for special circumstances that will help one sector or another. Stocks that might benefit from a reduction in tensions with the East bloc or from economic cooperation with the Soviet Union rallied strongly in the last quarter of 1989 and are expected to continue advancing. “In between the sector rallies, there could be some cooling down,” says Robert Jameson, an executive at Dresdner Bank’s Tokyo brokerage unit. “But a year is a long time in the Tokyo market, and it won’t stay cool for long.” * * * It's never different this time     

17 декабря 2014, 17:11

Buttonwood: Let’s get fiscal

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  Past and future tense Fly Title:  Buttonwood Rubric:  A new book from a prescient economist Main image:  20141220_FND001_0.jpg WHAT is the Japanese word for Schadenfreude? For much of the late 1990s and early 2000s, Western economists and politicians were happy to lecture the Japanese government about the mistakes it made in the aftermath of its asset bubble. But six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank whose demise triggered the financial crisis, many Western economies are still struggling to generate decent growth. Their central banks are being forced to keep interest rates close to zero. Yields on government bonds in Europe, as in Japan, have sunk to record lows. Some economists are talking of a new era of “secular stagnation”. A new book* from Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute argues that the West has made glaring errors too. “We are experiencing not only an economic crisis but also a crisis in economics,” he ...

17 декабря 2014, 17:11

Buttonwood: Let’s get fiscal

UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  Past and future tense Fly Title:  Buttonwood Rubric:  A new book from a prescient economist Main image:  20141220_FND001_0.jpg WHAT is the Japanese word for Schadenfreude? For much of the late 1990s and early 2000s, Western economists and politicians were happy to lecture the Japanese government about the mistakes it made in the aftermath of its asset bubble. But six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank whose demise triggered the financial crisis, many Western economies are still struggling to generate decent growth. Their central banks are being forced to keep interest rates close to zero. Yields on government bonds in Europe, as in Japan, have sunk to record lows. Some economists are talking of a new era of “secular stagnation”. A new book* from Richard Koo of the Nomura Research Institute argues that the West has made glaring errors too. “We are experiencing not only an economic crisis but also a crisis in economics,” he ...

Выбор редакции
04 декабря 2014, 11:59

Europe’s Remedies for Japanization

Weak growth and slowing inflation could have Europeans afraid of repeating Japan’s mistakes. While the symptoms are similar, Europe’s remedy must be a little different, says Nomura Research Institute’s chief economist Richard Koo.

22 января 2014, 17:01

BOJ Approaches Limit Of Its Existing Bond Buys, As Doubts Spread It Will Boost QE

One of the conventionally accepted "truths" (as wrong as they may end up in retrospect) for 2014 is that in addition to the ECB eventually commencing Fed-style QE (and if it doesn't, anyone holding peripheral bonds at these idiotic levels - watch out), the BOJ will launch an expanded dose of bond monetization as soon as April (certainly not last night, despite what some were expecting) maybe because so far Abenomics has failed to boost wages for 18 consecutive month, maybe because the coming sales tax hike is sure to crush any fleeting nominal economic gains, or maybe energy import prices just aren't stratospheric enough yet and those record monthly trade deficits could be... record-er. So yes: a new QE may or may not happen, but in the meantime, a new development is emerging: Japan is near the limit for the bond buys it can do under its current mandate. As Japan Times explains, the BOJ bought ¥6.8 trillion worth of sovereign notes in December, the least since it boosted the program to more than ¥7 trillion a month in April, data compiled by Totan Research Co. show. The buys may slow further to avoid exceeding the average annual target of a ¥50 trillion increase in the BOJ’s holdings for the year, said Tokai Tokyo Securities Co. and Totan, a Tokyo-based research unit of money-market broker Tokyo Tanshi Co. The holdings swelled by ¥50.3 trillion in the nine months that ended Dec. 31. Looks like the BOJ was in such a hurry to boost the Nikkei and crush the Yen, it already surpassed its annual monetization quota! So what happens if we do get a slowdown? Well, the JPY, which since early November has been selling off by the boatload, pricing in expectations of at least one more QE in April will soar. And then the verbal diarrhea will really begun as Kuroda "could signal to the market that a slowdown does not represent a scaling back of his accommodative policy or he could raise the holdings ceiling, according to Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp." In other words, forward guidance is about to come to Japan. Alas, forward guidance does not work, and should the last dynamo of real unsterilized monetary injection, Japan, flicker then die, all bets would be off. “The BOJ’s monthly purchases will decline to about ¥6.4 trillion,” Kazuhiko Sano, the chief bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities, told reporters and institutional investors Wednesday. “I don’t think the decreases would have a large impact on the market, considering investors paid little attention to the decline that we saw in December.” Well, now that you pointed it out, investors - which these days are mostly clueless algos programmed by 19 year old math PhD's will be paying very close attention. In the meantime, everyone is hoping and praying that any slowdown in purchases resulting in a market drop, would be met with a prompt pick up: The BOJ will boost stimulus by the end of September, 80 percent of the 35 economists polled last month estimated.   “The amount the BOJ needs to buy this year is about ¥6.5 trillion a month” after taking into account its bond holdings that come due, Izuru Kato, the president of Totan, wrote in a research note on Jan. 9. “The BOJ is more likely to boost purchases should the decrease destabilize bond yields.”   “Investors think the BOJ is just taking a break and will increase buying when the effect of the sales tax hike comes in,” said Tadashi Matsukawa, the head of fixed-income investment at PineBridge Investments Japan Co. “Japan’s yields are staying at these levels because of this assumption.” Well, maybe not. In a note released overnight, Bloomberg is reporting what we have said all along: epic QE in Japan may not be driving up the right inflation - namely wages - but it sure is sending the bad kind of inflation higher, that of import prices for food and energy, and other commodities. Which is why for the first time, many are refuting the rumor first launched in early November that a BOJ expansion in QE is just around the corner, and may instead be delayed. From Bloomberg: Accelerating inflation is prompting analysts from HSBC Holdings Plc. to Daiwa Securities Co. to push back forecasts for when the Bank of Japan may add to record monetary easing.   The percentage of economists predicting an expansion of already unprecedented stimulus between April and June fell to 33 percent from 56 percent three months ago in a Bloomberg News survey of 36 economists conducted Jan. 10-15.   With the BOJ’s preferred benchmark gauge showing inflation at more than half of its target 2 percent pace, the central bank may wait to assess trends in wages and the effects of a sales-tax increase in April before deciding on any extra stimulus. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and his board will keep policy on hold when a two-day meeting ends today, according to all economists in the survey.   “The speed of inflation is the main reason for pushing back my forecast,” said Maiko Noguchi, senior economist at Daiwa Securities and a former central bank official. “The BOJ can take a breath and watch developments in prices and the impact of the sales-tax increase.”   Consumer prices excluding fresh food rose 1.2 percent in November from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2008. For the final quarter of 2013, analysts estimate inflation was 1.1 percent, according to a separate poll, nearly three times economists’ 0.4 percent forecast in a survey in April last year. Needless to say, a delay in QE would crush Abenomics, as it would mean a surge in the Yen, a plunge in the Nikkei - really his only accomplishments so far - even as wages never rose, pushing the economy back in the deflationary limbo from whence it came as everyone rushes to sell financial assets. What happens then? Well... "The BOJ’s total assets have climbed to ¥229 trillion, or 48 percent of the nation’s nominal gross domestic product. The central bank aims to increase its balance sheet further to ¥290 trillion by the end of this year." Richard Koo adds, "It may be too late to prevent long-term rates doing something crazy” should the BOJ hold off on tapering before inflation reaches the target, said Richard Koo, the chief economist in Tokyo at Nomura Research Institute Ltd. The stimulus is leaving Japan at risk of falling into a quantitative-easing “trap” of being unable to taper without a surge in long-term rates and subsequent damage to the recovery, according to Koo, a former Federal Reserve economist." Good luck Japan. You will need it very soon.        

Выбор редакции
16 ноября 2013, 02:04

Asset Managers in Japan Shift to E-Trading: Survey

Asset management institutions in Japan are shifting to electronic trading, as 50% of respondents are using electronic trading and more than 75% of those firms have increased their use since 2010, according to a survey by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd....

Выбор редакции
07 ноября 2013, 12:51

Японцы заинтересовались технопарком «Точмаша»

Генеральный директор ВПО «Точмаш» Владимир Ахмадышев встретился с главой московского представительства Исследовательского института Номура (Nomura Research Institute - NRI) Ивао Охаси. Речь шла о развитии промышленного парка на территории ВПО «Точмаш»  и возможности организации во Владимире сборочных производств японских предприятий. Институт Номура называют «мозговым центром» японского бизнеса, который оказывает помощь японским предприятиям при вхождении на российский рынок и оценивает крупные инфраструктурные проекты. Генеральный директор Владимир Ахмадышев и глава представительства NRI Ивао Охаси обсудили возможные варианты сотрудничества. В частности, аналитики NRI предложили руководству ВПО «Точмаш» свой проект развития индустриального парка, который предполагает строительство дополнительных корпусов и привлечение резидентов. читать далее

01 июня 2013, 20:27

Stephen Roach: "The American Consumer Is Not Okay"

Authored by Stephen Roach, originally posted at Project Syndicate, The spin-doctors are hard at work talking up America’s subpar economic recovery. All eyes are on households. Thanks to falling unemployment, rising home values, and record stock prices, an emerging consensus of forecasters, market participants, and policymakers has now concluded that the American consumer is finally back. Don’t believe it. First, consider the facts: Over the 21 quarters since the beginning of 2008, real (inflation-adjusted) personal consumption has risen at an average annual rate of just 0.9%. That is by far the most protracted period of weakness in real US consumer demand since the end of World War II – and a massive slowdown from the pre-crisis pace of 3.6% annual real consumption growth from 1996 to 2007. With household consumption accounting for about 70% of the US economy, that 2.7-percentage-point gap between pre-crisis and post-crisis trends has been enough to knock 1.9 percentage points off the post-crisis trend in real GDP growth. Look no further for the cause of unacceptably high US unemployment. To appreciate fully the unique character of this consumer-demand shortfall, trends over the past 21 quarters need to be broken down into two distinct sub-periods. First, there was a 2.2% annualized decline from the first quarter of 2008 through the second quarter of 2009. This was crisis-driven carnage, highlighted by a 4.5% annualized collapse in the final two quarters of 2008. Second, this six-quarter plunge was followed, from mid-2009 through early 2013, by 15 quarters of annualized consumption growth averaging just 2% – an upturn that pales in comparison with what would have been expected based on past consumer-spending cycles. That key point appears all but lost on the consumer-recovery crowd. In recent speeches and discussions with current and former central bankers, I have been criticized for focusing too much on the 0.9% trend of the past 21 quarters and paying too little attention to the 2% recovery phase of the post-crisis period. At least it’s a recovery, they claim, and a sign of healing that can be attributed mainly to the heroic, unconventional efforts of the US Federal Reserve. This brings us to the second part of the argument against optimism: analytics. One of the first concepts to which an economics student is exposed in a basic macro course is “pent-up” consumer demand. Discretionary consumption is typically deferred during recessions, especially for long-lasting durable goods such as motor vehicles, furniture, and appliances. Once the recession ends and recovery begins, a “stock-adjustment” response takes hold, as households compensate for foregone replacement and update their aging durable goods. Over most of the postwar period, this post-recession release of pent-up consumer demand has been a powerful source of support for economic recovery. In the eight recoveries since the early 1950’s (excluding the brief pop following the credit-controls-induced slump in the 1980’s), the stock-adjustment response lifted real consumption growth by 6.1%, on average, for five quarters following business-cycle downturns; spurts of 7-8% growth were not uncommon for a quarter or two. By contrast, the release of pent-up demand in the current cycle amounted to just 3% annualized growth in the five quarters from early 2010 to early 2011. Moreover, the strongest quarterly gain was a 4.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2010. This is a stunning result. The worst consumer recession in modern history, featuring a record collapse in durable-goods expenditures in 2008-2009, should have triggered an outsize surge of pent-up demand. Yet it did anything but that. Instead, the release of pent-up consumer demand was literally half that of previous business cycles. The third point is more diagnostic: The shockingly anemic pattern of post-crisis US consumer demand has resulted from a deep Japan-like balance-sheet recession. With the benefit of hindsight, we now know that the 12-year pre-crisis US consumer-spending binge was built on a precarious foundation of asset and credit bubbles. When those bubbles burst, consumers were left with a massive overhang of excess debt and subpar saving. The post-bubble aversion to spending, and the related focus on balance-sheet repair, reflects what Nomura Research Institute economist Richard Koo has called a powerful “debt rejection” syndrome. While Koo applied this framework to Japanese firms in Japan’s first lost decade of the 1990’s, it rings true for America’s crisis-battered consumers, who are still struggling with the lingering pressures of excessive debt loads, underwater mortgages, and woefully inadequate personal saving. Through its unconventional monetary easing, the Fed is attempting to create a shortcut around the imperative of household sector balance-sheet repair. This is where the wealth effects of now-rebounding housing prices and a surging stock market come into play. But are these newfound wealth effects really all that they are made out to be? Yes, the stock market is now at an all-time high – but only in current dollars. In real terms, the S&P 500 is still 20% below its January 2000 peak. Similarly, while the Case-Shiller index of US home prices is now up 10.2% over the year ending March 2013, it remains 28% below its 2006 peak. Wealth creation matters, but not until it recoups the wealth destruction that preceded it. Sadly, most American households are still far from recovery on the asset side of their balance sheets. Moreover, though the US unemployment rate has fallen, this largely reflects an alarming decline in labor-force participation, with more than 6.5 million Americans since 2006 having given up looking for work. At the same time, while consumer confidence is on the mend, it remains well below pre-crisis readings. In short, the American consumer’s nightmare is far from over. Spin and frothy markets aside, the healing has only just begun.