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15 сентября, 22:13

The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart

Based on the teardown of a Chevy Bolt, this chart reveals how annual commodity demand would be affected in a hypothetical 100% EV world. The post The Massive Impact of EVs on Commodities in One Chart appeared first on Visual Capitalist.

15 сентября, 14:58

Учетные цены Банка России на драгметаллы с 16 сентября

15 сентября. FINMARKET.RU - ЦБ РФ с 16 сентября установил следующие учетные цены на драгоценные металлы: на золото - 2450,91 (-6,39) руб./грамм; на серебро - 32,74 (-0,23) руб./грамм; на платину - 1809,05 (-7,45) руб./грамм; на палладий - 1718,41 (-29,37) руб./грамм.

15 сентября, 13:57

Рынок драгметаллов сегодня: 15 сентября 2017 г.

Рынки драгоценных металлов сегодня вновь корректируются вниз, несмотря на слабеющий курс доллара США и запуск очередной баллистической ракеты над Японией с территории Северной Кореи...

15 сентября, 10:00

Палладий 2017: рост цен из-за дизельного скандала

Драгоценный металл палладий показывает стабильную динамику роста с начала текущего 2017 года. Росту цен на палладий также способствовал дизельный скандал, связанный с немецким концерном Volkswagen...

14 сентября, 15:23

Рынок драгметаллов сегодня: 14 сентября 2017 г.

Рынки золота и платины сегодня подрастают, а рынки серебра и палладия снижаются, курс доллара значительно укрепился. Американский фондовый рынок продолжает корректироваться вниз от установленного рекорда...

14 сентября, 14:58

Учетные цены Банка России на драгметаллы с 15 сентября

14 сентября. FINMARKET.RU - ЦБ РФ с 15 сентября установил следующие учетные цены на драгоценные металлы: на золото - 2457,3 (-12,78) руб./грамм; на серебро - 32,97 (-0,24) руб./грамм; на платину - 1816,5 (-11,61) руб./грамм; на палладий - 1747,78 (-6,17) руб./грамм.

14 сентября, 10:30

Потенциал ГМК Норникеля и цена никеля.

Мне часто задают вопрос о ГМК Норникеле. О том, что цена на никель падает и как это отразится на котировках производителя. Этот вопрос очень объемный и сложный в понимании, но я постараюсь все максимально упростить. Для того чтобы это было проще понимать, давайте обратимся к такому инструменту как нефть. В начале 2016 года нефть находилась на невероятной цене – порядка 27,1 долларов за баррель. В СМИ шли панические дискуссии о том, что мы не сможем сформировать бюджет при таких ценах, «все пропало», «нам конец», придется потратить Стабфонд и все прочее в том же духе. Тогда я писал, что бюджет формируется не по текущим ценам за 1-2 дня и что в году 365 дней, из которых большая часть приходится на рабочие дни. Поводов для паники не было, так как снижение до минимумов не являлось длительным по времени и не могло проходить допустимые уровни. Но видя цену ниже 30 долларов за баррель, у инвесторов была настоящая паника. Что же мы увидели на практике?  Нефть спокойно взяла мою цель 50 долларов и в итоге мы, как оказалось, можем жить и по 40 долларов за баррель, а на все что выше этой суммы, Минфин сейчас покупает валюту. Теперь перейдем к графику сырья: никеля. Как видим, в 2016 году никель половину времени провел ниже 9500, а вторую половину выше 9500. Давайте условно возьмем среднюю цену как 9500. Акции ГМК Норникеля при этом чувствовали себя нормально и к концу года добрались до 11199. ГМК Норникель это не только никель, разумеется, тут и медь и платина и палладий и много всего другого. А также много прочих важных деталей, к примеру, вопросы низкой себестоимости производства никеля в отличие от конкурентов. Но для понимания возьмем это сырье и то, может ли влиять его текущее снижение на котировки акций ГМК. Если же брать 2017 год, то пока большую часть времени цены на никель находятся значительно выше 9500. А сейчас уже середина сентября. При этом кто-то умудряется заявлять, что цена на никель падает. Посмотрите на этот график: где локальный минимум и где цена на никель. На графике типичная растущая картина и поэтому даже если цена на никель снизится значительно, средняя цена за год пострадает незначительно и прибыль в долларах будет достаточно высокой. Почему же мы смотрим именно среднюю цену никеля по итогам года. Потому что компании продают произведенную продукцию не пару недель, а весь год!!! и отчитываются по результатам за год и только годовой отчет является основным в понимании показателей, а также напрямую влияет на величину дивидендов. Кстати, 17 октября пройдет новая отсечка по Т+2 в акциях эмитента, 224,2 рубля в копилку инвесторов.https://vk.com/ramlcity_liteЖелаю всем успешной и профитной торговли!

13 сентября, 22:05

Former UBS Trader Arrested, Charged With Rigging Gold Prices

Three years after we first identified the former head of UBS's gold desk in Zurich as someone directly implicated in the rigging of precious metals prices, Bloomberg reports that Andre Flotron, a Swiss resident, was arrested while visiting the U.S., according to people familiar with the matter. Having been "on leave" since 2014, it appears Andre's hope that he was gone but "keen to return in due time" are now up in smoke.   As Bloomberg reports, Flotron was charged with conspiracy, wire fraud, commodities fraud and spoofing, according to a prepared complaint, and is the second person publicly charged in the U.S. investigation into the fixing of gold, silver, platinum and palladium prices. As a a reminder, in June, David Liew, a former Deutsche Bank AG trader, pleaded guilty to fraud in federal court in Chicago for his role in the spoofing of contracts for gold, silver, platinum and palladium, according to court papers. Along with spoofing, he also acknowledged front-running customers’ orders. Flotron’s arrest extends the Justice Department’s examination of whether bank traders conspired to rig interest-rate benchmarks and manipulate currency exchanges. The probes, which led to guilty pleas and billions of dollars in payouts by some of the world’s biggest banks, also led prosecutors to begin investigating whether metals traders were placing orders without the intent of executing them in an attempt to move prices in their favor, a tactic known as spoofing. “Flotron and his co-conspirators placed one or more large orders for precious metals futures contracts on one side of the market which, at the time Flotron and his co-conspirators placed the orders, they intended to cancel before execution,” the complaint said. Swiss regulators have also shown an interest in Flotron, telling him in a2014 letter of a possible enforcement action, two people told Bloomberg News at the time. It’s unclear whether Switzerland’s Financial Market Supervisory Authority disciplined him. So it seems another conspiracy theory becoems conspiracy fact. Thank you Monsieur Flotron for teaching us how market manipulators "trade" gold -  Recall from 2013, when Flotron was 'trading', what "a humble block of 2000 gold futs (GC) taking out the bid stack, and slamming the price of gold, managed to halt the gold market: one of the largest "asset" markets in the world in terms of total notional, for 20 seconds" looks like:

13 сентября, 15:02

Учетные цены Банка России на драгметаллы с 14 сентября

13 сентября. FINMARKET.RU - ЦБ РФ с 14 сентября установил следующие учетные цены на драгоценные металлы: на золото - 2470,08 (+28,28) руб./грамм; на серебро - 33,21 (+0,53) руб./грамм; на платину - 1828,11 (+12,76) руб./грамм; на палладий - 1753,95 (+25,13) руб./грамм.

13 сентября, 13:03

Рынок драгметаллов сегодня: 13 сентября 2017 г.

Сегодня рынки драгоценных металлов корректируются вверх, снимая вчерашнюю перепроданность под влиянием продолжающегося ослабления курса доллара США. Американский фондовый рынок также снижается...

12 сентября, 15:28

Рынок драгметаллов сегодня: 12 сентября 2017 г.

Сегодня рынки драгоценных металлов продолжают снижаться под влиянием охватившего мир оптимизма. Американский фондовый рынок устанавливает новые рекорды, а курс доллара США вновь начал укрепляться...

12 сентября, 15:00

Учетные цены Банка России на драгметаллы с 13 сентября

12 сентября. FINMARKET.RU - ЦБ РФ с 13 сентября установил следующие учетные цены на драгоценные металлы: на золото - 2441,8 (-18,87) руб./грамм; на серебро - 32,68 (-0,13) руб./грамм; на платину - 1815,35 (-28,2) руб./грамм; на палладий - 1728,82 (-15,48) руб./грамм.

11 сентября, 15:08

Учетные цены Банка России на драгметаллы с 12 сентября

11 сентября. FINMARKET.RU - ЦБ РФ с 12 сентября установил следующие учетные цены на драгоценные металлы: на золото - 2460,67 (-14,83) руб./грамм; на серебро - 32,81 (-0,56) руб./грамм; на платину - 1843,55 (-14,59) руб./грамм; на палладий - 1744,3 (+5,27) руб./грамм.

11 сентября, 14:25

Рынок драгметаллов сегодня: 11 сентября 2017 г.

Сегодня рынки драгоценных металлов корректируются вниз под влиянием ослабления геополитической напряжённости вокруг Северной Кореи, а также в связи с некоторым укреплением курса американского доллара...

02 сентября, 05:00

Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%

Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%  - All four precious metals outperform markets in August- Gold posts best month since January, up nearly 4%- Gold reaches highest price since US election, climbs due to uncertainty and safe haven demand- S&P 500 marginally higher; Euro Stoxx, Nikkei lower for month- Platinum is best performing metal climbing over 5%- Palladium climbs over 4% thanks to seven year supply squeeze- Fear, uncertainty and political sanctions are amongst biggest drivers for precious metals- Never been a better time to diversify and rebalance portfolios with stocks and bonds near record highs and looking vulnerable Editor: Mark O'Byrne Market Performance in August (Finviz.com) All four precious metals have made gains in the month of August. Whilst platinum and palladium's leading performances can largely be attributed to industrial factors they have also benefited from the safe haven demand which is driving gold and silver prices. Safe haven demand really came into its own this last month. Issues with North Korea have stepped up a level whilst markets have finally begun to question the complacency they have been feeling in regard to the US political and financial situation, geopolitical risk and the increasingly uncertain outlook for the global economy. Ultimately very little is known about what will happen with the US debt ceiling, increasingly overvalued stocks (both the NASDAQ and  the S&P500), Trump's plans for corporate tax, dealings with North Korea and (not forgetting) Venezuela. We are living in very uncertain times indeed and investors decided to allocate funds to the ultimate safe havens - the precious metals. Gold shines as investors rush into safe havens This week gold rose to its highest point so far in 2017 as tensions between North Korea (but really, the rest of the world) and the US ramped up. For the month of August the price is up 3.59%. Silver was also up thanks to safe haven demand, but its 5% climb was also in part due to manufacturing demand. Currently, about 55% of all silver consumed is for industrial use. Gold has so far risen in every month, bar June. Gold's climb has in part been due to ongoing demand from countries such as China and India, but it has primarily been driven by the desire in the West to own a safe haven. This is not surprising given the ongoing concerns regarding North Korea, Venezuela, the Middle East and a lack of cohesion in the Trump administration. One of the dampeners on gold and silver has been the Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates. However, when they did so it had little effect. Expectations for further hikes are falling. Going forward Yellen and team are expected to slow down on further interest-rate increases which has provided an additional boost for the gold price. In the very short-term storm Harvey in Houston, Texas has also impacted the price of gold and silver. As a result of lost income and recovery operations, US GDP is expected to be lower in the third-quarter than was initially expected. In the long-term investors will look to gold and silver as they begin to price risk into the market. Yesterday we expressed our concerns over market complacency whilst other financial organisations have begun to warn clients about the overpriced equity markets and lack of perceived risk. It is also worth noting an expected climb in demand from China. Mark Tinker, Head of AXA Framlington wrote in a note that China’s pricing of assets in yuan (together with the plan by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to  sell yuan-priced physical gold contracts) could allow them to trade out of the banking system in the US “Having accepted payment for oil or gas in RMB, the seller, be it Russia or Saudi Arabia or anyone else for that matter, does not have to worry about having excess RMB, they can simply trade it back into gold,” Tinker said. “We are moving to a multi-polar world.” Platinum gains as Russia feels the pain Platinum has performed very well so far in the second half of the year. This most recent surge has likely come about thanks to further sanctions being placed on Russia by the US. Russia is the world's second biggest producer of the metal. The World Platinum Investment Council outlined the following arguments for platinum's role as a safe haven investment asset: - Supply demand fundamentals are strong and ETF holdings are stable, despite price volatility- Risks of supply declines are underestimated - cost pressure and falling mining investment continue - Downside risks to platinum automotive demand are overestimated- Futures positioning follows poor sentiment with high correlation to price- Platinum is undervalued against its past, its production cost and against gold Palladium climbs on Vauxhall’s woes Palladium is currently at a 16 year high. There is a major tightening in the supply of palladium because of increased demand for it in engines. 67% of palladium supply is used in car engines to clean exhaust gases from gasoline engines. There is obviously a major push for ‘clean’ transport and the Vauxhall emissions scandal and obviously helped boost demand. Inventories of palladium supply are down by abut 45% this year, whilst supply trails demand by the most in the seven years. Despite the increase in supply, there has been a significant number of redemptions in the the two main U.S. and European palladium ETFs - the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares and the ZKB Palladium. By the 22nd August $49 million had been traded in. Supply in the spot market is reportedly so tight that companies are being forced to trade in multiple ETF shares in order to redeem them with the issuer in exchange for physical palladium. ETFs are now being treated like palladium warehouses. It is also important to note that, like platinum, palladium is also hugely affected by the sanctions on Russia. It is also important to note that ETFs are a risky way to invest in precious metals and most investors would be better served owning actual precious metals rather than paper or digital proxies. Conclusion: Stars aligning? Outlook good for rest of 2017 Earlier this week we explained how investors shouldn't always be focused on price. Whilst it is nice to look at the metrics for August and see that all precious metals are up, we should instead focus on why they are up and most importantly the diversification benefits for our portfolios. Precious metals are largely climbing because the perceived risk in the political and financial system is also climbing. Interestingly many commentators do not feel some risky issues have been wholly appreciated by the markets. Problems such as North Korea are such serious risks that even someone who pays no attention to markets could spot it. The issue is that you have an overvalued stock market and a US President who cannot get his people together. This means that the US debt ceiling issue might ground the U.S. government to a halt. These issues are ones which have not yet been fully priced into the markets. They likely will be in the coming months and then the safe haven role of the precious metals and gold in particular will come into its own. News and Commentary Gold up 4% in August - largest monthly gain since January (Marketwatch) Gold steady near 9-1/2 month highs as N.Korea tensions persist (Reuters) Gold Scores Fifth Monthly Increase; US Mint Bullion Sales Slow in August (Coin News) Gold edges lower, but N.Korea worries lend support (Nasdaq) Massive wartime bomb to be defused near German gold reserves (Irish Times) Source: Marketwatch From Stocks to Bonds, the Bear-Market Signals Are Multiplying (Bloomberg) Rothschild reduces exposure to US stocks amid turmoil (Standard) Five charts show why millennials are worse off than their parents (FT.com) When the Butterfly Flaps Its Wings - Kunstler (Zerohedge) Buffett: North Korea situation is very concerning (CNBC) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 01 Sep: USD 1,318.40, GBP 1,020.18 & EUR 1,107.98 per ounce31 Aug: USD 1,305.80, GBP 1,013.17 & EUR 1,098.31 per ounce30 Aug: USD 1,310.60, GBP 1,014.93 & EUR 1,096.71 per ounce29 Aug: USD 1,323.40, GBP 1,020.34 & EUR 1,097.36 per ounce25 Aug: USD 1,287.05, GBP 1,003.90 & EUR 1,090.90 per ounce24 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 1,003.26 & EUR 1,090.44 per ounce23 Aug: USD 1,286.45, GBP 1,004.33 & EUR 1,091.68 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 01 Sep: USD 17.50, GBP 13.53 & EUR 14.69 per ounce31 Aug: USD 17.34, GBP 13.47 & EUR 14.62 per ounce30 Aug: USD 17.44, GBP 13.49 & EUR 14.60 per ounce29 Aug: USD 17.60, GBP 13.59 & EUR 14.62 per ounce25 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.26 & EUR 14.40 per ounce24 Aug: USD 16.93, GBP 13.20 & EUR 14.36 per ounce23 Aug: USD 17.06, GBP 13.32 & EUR 14.48 per ounce Recent Market Updates - 4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders- Gold Reset To $10,000/oz Coming “By January 1, 2018” – Rickards- Gold Surges 2.6% After Jackson Hole and N. Korean Missile- Diversify Into Gold On U.S. “Political Instability” Advise Blackrock- Trump Presidency Is Over – Bannon Is Right- The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S.- Cyberwar Risk – Was U.S. Navy Victim Of Hacking?- Global Financial Crisis 10 Years On: Gold Rises 100% from $650 to $1,300- Mnuchin: I Assume Fort Knox Gold Is Still There- Buffett Sees Market Crash Coming? His Cash Speaks Louder Than Words- Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High- Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since Nixon Ended Gold Standard- World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2 Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

02 сентября, 01:50

Palladium Suddenly Spikes To 16-Year Highs

Amid hope for reinvigorated auto production (after Hurricane Harvey's destruction) and yesterday's escalation in US-Russia tensions (Russia being the world's largest producer), spot Palladium is spiking today, hitting its highest since record highs in January 2001. While the entire gamut of industrial and precious metals have been rising recently (the latter on the back of Chinese demand hype), Palladium prices exploded today out of nowhere (biggest jump in 7 months).   Pushing the precious metal to its highest in 16 years...   There appear to be a few catalysts for the recent trend and today's spike... 1. China's commodity panic-buying trend There just appears to be blind panic-buying momentum from China in any and every industrial metal and along with gold prices surging amid North Korea and debt ceiling drama, we suspect Palladium is catching a bid on the back of that. 2. Renewed hopes for growth in the auto sector As Bloomberg notes, approximately 67 percent of palladium produced is used in catalytic converters, which convert up to 90 percent of the harmful gases in automobile exhaust to less noxious substances. Global auto sales, up 4 percent for the year, are driven by a global increase in SUV sales, the ongoing shift from diesel to gasoline engines in Europe (diesel engines alternatively use platinum), and tightening emission legislation.   Sales of autos fueled by petroleum have been particularly strong in China and India. According to Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, car sales in China have been “borrowed” from future years through the offering of rebates and tax cuts. In the first half of the year, auto sales in China rose 4.3 percent, to 13.4 million units, from a year earlier.   US Auto sales just collapsed though...     ZH: And the recent devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey is prompting companies like Ford to discuss increasing production once again. 3. Tighter supply due to Russian sanctions Russia is the world's largest supplier...   Source   Bloomberg notes that on Aug. 2, Congress passed a bill approving new sanctions on Russia in response to its interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as its human rights violations, annexation of Crimea, and military operations in eastern Ukraine. The measure substantially reduces the president’s power to waive or ease certain sanctions without congressional approval.   The bill lists 12 types of sanctions that can be imposed on people and entities that, for example, conduct “significant” transactions with Russian defense and intelligence agencies and invest or facilitate the investment of $10 million or more in the privatization of any state-owned asset that unfairly benefits government officials or their associates.   So far, Russia has been able to maintain stable palladium supplies in the face of international political issues. Yet since 2014, a bloc of nations -- including Switzerland, Japan, Australia and Canada, as well as the European Union -- has imposed sanctions against Russia.   Norilsk Nickel, a public joint stock company, is the world’s leading producer of palladium and nickel. Its key shareholders are two powerful Russian oligarchs: Vladimir Potanin’s Interros and Oleg Deripaska’s Rusal. Each reportedly owns more than 25 percent of shares. Interros Group is one of the largest private investment companies in Russia. Deripaska has close ties to President Vladimir Putin and a connection to the American political consultant Paul Manafort, whom Deripaska employed from at least 2005 to 2009.   Norilsk Nickel reported that its palladium production fell 2 percent in the first half of the year from a year earlier, to almost 1.3 million metric tons. CPM’s Christian indicated that Norilsk’s stockpiling in the first quarter likely contributed to the tight market in May and June.   Although markets are fairly balanced, showing a small surplus, Norilsk said palladium consumption is expected to reach an all-time high of 10.8 million ounces, and is forecasting a deficit this year of more than 1 million ounces.   ZH: And additionally yesterday saw an escalation in tensions between US and Russia as the state department ordered the San Francisco consulate closed... prompting angry responses from Moscow - and perhaps retaliation. *  *  * We suspect the latter two are the most critical factors for today's spike.

18 августа, 15:29

Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High

Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High - Gold and silver rise as stocks fall sharply after Barcelona attack- Gold, silver 0.6% higher in week after last weeks 2%, 5% rise- Palladium +36% ytd, breaks out & reaches 16 year high (chart)- Gold to silver ratio falls to mid 75s after silver gains last week- Perfect storm of financial and geopolitical tensions is driving safe haven demand and should see higher prices- Weekly close over $1,300 could see gold quickly test $1,400- Palladium at 16 year highs today; gold, silver in coming months? 2017 YTD Relative Performance (Finviz) Editor Mark O'Byrne This morning readers woke to the news that a second attack in 24 hours had taken place in Barcelona. So-called Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks in Spain. Global stocks has fallen and precious metals have eked out gains this morning as investors seek out safe haven assets. Gold has risen to trade at its highest level since the beginning of June. Gold’s reaction to the Barcelona events is likely to last and may continue today. The combination of heightened risk in the global geopolitical sphere is likely to support both gold and silver, pushing them through recent resistance. A weekly close above $1,300 per ounce will be very positive for gold and should see a rapid move to test the $1,400 level. Gold and silver outperforming stocks After losses earlier in the week, gold and silver have come right back and are now up 0.55% and 0.64% respectively. This is very positive as profit taking was to be expected after last weeks strong gains. Gold and silver have consistently remained in the top-performing assets throughout the year and are beginning to outperform stocks. In the year to date, gold is up nearly 13% whilst silver has climbed over 7.5%. The benchmark S&P500 is up 8.6% after weakness last week and this. Both precious metals have performed well thanks to safe haven demand, much of which has been driven by very strong demand in India, China and Asia and ETF-demand in Europe. Palladium at 16 year highs today; gold and silver in coming months Palladium is up over 36% in the year-to-date and is the best performing commodity and market this year. Palladium in USD - 20 Years (Macrotrends.net) Consumption of the rare industrial precious metal is expected to hit 10.8 million ounces this year, an all-time high. Demand from the automotive industry, the biggest buyer of the metal, is up 4% this year. Due to the high demand and limited availability of palladium there is market deficit of over 1 million ounces. The apparent five-year-long market deficit has begun to impact the availability of above-ground stocks. This has prompted leasing rates to dramatically increase, taking the palladium market into backwardation of around 5-10%/year. Much of palladium’s increased demand is thanks to increased demand for SUV vehicles which have to abide by tightening emission legislation from the EU. The latest announcement in the UK regarding a ban on diesel engines will also help to boost demand as consumers shift from diesel to petrol engines. This suggests that there is little let-up for the tight supply conditions the palladium market is currently experiencing. Safe haven demand to last Safe haven demand is coming back and is again one of the firm drivers of precious metal prices. We have seen strong demand in August in what is frequently a quieter month as investors switch off and go on holidays. We are operating in a very nervous financial and geopolitical environment globally. Geopolitical events can lead to price gains and safe haven demand. But the real risk is that a massive terrorist event or a cluster of many such events could impact consumer confidence, markets and the wider global economy. And geopolitical risk is also seen in the complete mess that is U.S. politics and the Trump Presidency. For instance, the latest drama from the Trump camp regarding the collapse of his business councils, is not in itself a reason to rush to precious metals. However, it is another sign of the cracks emerging in Trump’s administration and their complete inability to deliver on campaign promises. The same can be said for the President’s reaction to the Charlottesville tragedy at the weekend. Both events (added to all issues since January) suggest that the current White House administration are perhaps losing sight of what it means to run the world’s declining super power. Leading from struggles in the White House, the combative approaches of President Trump and North Korea ruler Kim Jong Un throughout the year has also helped to provide safe haven support for gold and silver. These aren’t the only issues that are creating nervousness and uncertainty in the marketplace: - Vladimir Putin’s geo-political ambitions combined with Russia's growing closeness with China. - The deteriorating relationship between Iran and the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and significant players in the Middle East - The near impossible problems in the Middle East—including but not limited to ISIS and al Qaeda, Syria, the worsening situation between Israel and Palestine - Increasing divisions between Turkey and Europe - Turkey having previously been seen as an ally for the West, in the Middle East - Signs of growing differences between many Western allies, significantly President Trump and European leaders in regard to how to deal with the above. Will gold break $1,300? In recent months gold has attempted to break through the $1,300 barrier a few times. This level is being touted as a psychological barrier which, when broken, could see gold perform in a way not seen since its 2011 run when the inflows of speculative money drove prices up $500 in just nine months. However, it might not be political events that push it past this barrier. Interestingly if one looks at gold’s behaviour in the last seven or eight years, it has not reacted to political tensions (see graph below). Source: ANZ Instead, it has been mainly affected by monetary policy, QE, the hunt for yield and shifting inflationary / deflationary concerns. An interesting point to consider as it is, arguably, counterintuitive. Therefore, we may see gold break through the $1,300 barrier on account of the US Federal Reserve whose last minutes surprised the markets. Whilst they gave no indication as to how the FOMC might move ahead, they did show a lack of consensus between members. Janet Yellen previously indicated there might be three (or even four) possible interest rate rises for 2017. So far, we have had two of these which have increased U.S. interest rates by 50 basis points.  These latest Fed minutes are perhaps suggesting that the FOMC is unlikely to implement even a third rate rise this year. This should not be surprising given the lack of recovery in the US economy, inflation not meeting the required 2% and employment levels failing to reach targets. However, we should not dismiss political tensions and their push for safe haven demand. Central banks may talk and talk but the bottom line is that ultra loose monetary policies are set to continue and remain very supportive. For many decades we have not seen a geopolitical situation so tense, where it feels so many countries are looking over their shoulders at what could come next both in terms of political and financial threats. The push over $1,300 could be due to a perfect storm of financial, economic and geopolitical risks, each pushing investors to look for a safe haven and time-proven financial insurance. Conclusion Palladium is the best performing precious metal this year. This is not thanks to events which happen today and (sadly) become tomorrow’s news. Palladium’s stellar performance is thanks to a series of decisions and events which have caused a major supply deficit whilst demand continues to climb. The same can be said of gold and silver. Investors must not look to one-off events such as a terrorist attacks or an angry Tweet from Trump. It is when these events are no longer isolated incidents and instead form a much bigger picture about the uncertain state of the world. This picture is taking shape and is slowly impacting the way people look at their finances. Soon, the picture will be much clearer and will drive safe haven investment demand. In the meantime, those with clearer foresight would do well to see the climbing numbers in the performance chart and realise now is a good time to take advantage of low prices and insultate and rebalance your portfolio with some safe haven protection in the form of allocated, segregated gold and silver bullion. Given these many risks, there is no good reason, that gold and silver will not follow palladium's lead and surge to multi year highs in the coming months.   News and Commentary Gold Futures Punch Through $1,300 as Global Stocks Extend Losses (Bloomberg.com) Gold lifted by haven demand; palladium logs 16-year high (MarketWatch.com) Gold steady, buoyed by geopolitical worries (Reuters.com) Nikkei slumps to 3-month low as Asian markets dip (MarketWatch.com) India Bans Gold Exports Above 22 Carats to Plug Trade Loopholes (Bloomberg.com) Futures Now: Gold shines (CNBC.com) Markets Roiled on Trump Stance Tensions: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com) High-Profile Sectors Start To Roll Over (DollarCollapse.com) What can you do about this recurring crisis? (StansBerryChurcHouse.com) New Currency in Race to Remake One of World’s Oldest Markets (Bloomberg.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 18 Aug: USD 1,295.25, GBP 1,004.34 & EUR 1,102.65 per ounce17 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 998.12 & EUR 1,096.74 per ounce16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 & EUR 1,082.29 per ounce15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 18 Aug: USD 17.15, GBP 13.30 & EUR 14.60 per ounce17 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.23 & EUR 14.55 per ounce16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.25 per ounce15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since Nixon Ended Gold Standard- World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2- Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”- Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer- Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold- Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers- Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat- Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners- Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline- Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017- Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”- What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi- Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.

30 июня, 16:32

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30 июня, 01:00

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