Россия примет решение относительно членства в Совете Европы (СЕ) в июне 2019 года. Об этом...
Комитет по регламенту Парламентской ассамблеи Совета Европы в Париже принял процедурные изменения, которые смягчают те...
В случае возобновления санкций против делегации РФ в Парламентской ассамблее Совета Европы, они не могут быть лишены права голоса на выборах судей ЕСПЧ, генсека СЕ и других руководителей организации. Такое решение принял на заседании в […] Сообщение В ПАСЕ ограничили объем санкций, которые могут быть наложены на россиян появились сначала на ХВИЛЯ.
На зимней «Казань Арене» вчера было очень холодно и пусто. Сыграли вничью
В регулярном чемпионате Национальной хоккейной лиги начался очередной игровой день. Обладатель Кубка Стэнли "Вашингтон Кэпиталз" выиграл седьмой матч подряд.
About two months after Bank of America rang the proverbial bell on the US real estate market, indicating existing home sales have peaked, reflecting declining affordability, greater price reductions and deteriorating housing sentiment. It now appears The Wall Street Journal has jumped on the bandwagon in calling the housing market top with a new piece that warns: "US Housing Boom Is Coming To An End, Starting In Dallas." In a piece published Tuesday, the WSJ hones in on Dallas to explain the national slowdown of the housing market alongside Trump's "greatest economy ever." Housing prices have risen far faster than wages, which has triggered an affordability crisis during the same time the Federal Reserve is undergoing monetary tightening - a perfect cocktail that could form a top in the market. More: "Yet even with the booming growth, Dallas’s once vibrant housing market is sputtering. In the high-end subdivisions in the suburb of Frisco, builders are cutting prices on new homes by up to $150,000. On one street alone, $4 million of new homes sat empty on a visit earlier this month. Some home builders are so desperate to attract interest they are offering agents the chance to win Louis Vuitton handbags or Super Bowl tickets with round-trip airfare, if their clients buy a home. Yet fresh-baked cookies sit uneaten at sparsely attended open houses." WSJ notes that affordability has gotten “out of whack with historical norms.” The median home price in Dallas now costs more than 50% than it did in 2007. On Zillow's website, the Dallas market is rated as "cold." Plano, McKinney, and Allen are each rated cold, as well, while Frisco is “very cold." The WSJ interviewed a millennial family who purchased a home earlier this year in the Dallas metro area; they said the market “felt extremely hot,” but struggled to sell their previous home for five months as interest rates surged. In mid-October, they sold it for $16,000 less than their original asking price. Mortgage rates positively correlate to 10-year Treasury notes, which have been all year because of growing inflation fears and massive deficit spending by the Trump admin. “Some [buyers] are adjusting their budget. They’re shopping more for different mortgage companies,” said Amy Downs, a real-estate agent at Keller Williams Realty. “They still think they can find a lender that can get them a better rate, but it doesn’t really exist.” Signs Of A Housing Slump: Housing Starts for single-family Three-month average sales, change from a year earlier Inventory, change from a year earlier in October Home values, change from a year earlier The Dallas market is one of the most sensitive regions in the country to volatility in mortgage rates. The average household finances 83% of its home purchase, slightly higher than the national average of 81%, according to Black Knight Inc., a mortgage data company. "As mortgage rates rise, buyers increasingly look for less-expensive homes. That is pushing builders further out to the fringes in search of lower-cost land where they can try to build more homes priced at $300,000 or less. The median price for a new home in Dallas has dropped by some $3,000 this year compared with last year, according to Metrostudy, which suggests builders are building at lower price points. That can be a risky strategy after the heat has already started to come out of the market. During the last downturn, it was precisely those exurban neighborhoods that got hit the earliest and the hardest as buyers migrated back to more desirable neighborhoods when prices fell." "Dallas has been the “canary in the mine shaft” this housing cycle," said Paige Shipp, regional director for Metrostudy, a consultant to home builders. "Homes are taking longer to sell, bidding wars are rarer and price cuts are more common as buyers absorb the impact of higher rates." And Shipp could be right, new home-price gains data in 20 US cities grew in September at the slowest pace in almost two years, adding to signs that real estate has hit a cyclical peak. "The 20-city index of property values increased 5.1% from a year earlier, the least since November 2016, after rising 5.5% in the prior month, according to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data released Tuesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a gain of 5.2%. Nationally, home prices were up 5.5% from September 2017," said Bloomberg. With BofA and WSJ months apart in calling the US housing top, it seems that the affordability crisis and higher interest rates could have pricked the bubble.
Americans aren't the only ones who love their game shows.
Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities, ...and the Mighty Trump at bat. The game is on the line. The entire world is watching. The count is 3 & 2. Xi just missed catching on the corner on those three pitches. The first strike? Well that will go do in the history of baseball. The pitch was so far outside, it was almost a wild pitch, but the Mighty Trump swung and missed. The ball was so far outside, no one could have hit it. Was a momentary lapse in judgement? Erratic behavior? Did the Mighty Trump want the glory of a hit rather than forcing the tying run with a walk? Or was it some brazen strategy to get the upper hand in the mental game with Xi? We may never know the truth. The second strike was equally memorable. A long, long, long, long, long foul ball. The Mighty Trump got a hold of Xi’s delivery and knocked it out of the park. Heads are still shaking at how far that ball went, but unfortunately for the Mudville 9, it was just foul. Xi checks the runners, goes into the wind up, and here’s the pitch… I have spent this week in constant dialogue with my best contacts on trade. Here is what I am hearing President Trump may have a plan, but few are privy to it and there is a lot of concern whether he will stick to a plan or wing it Many senior people in the Republican party blame weaker than expected showings in some regions as directly attributable to trade policy and tariffs, so there is a push to back away from that strategy. Allegedly the president’s reaction to GM closing plants was to express a desire to double down rather than back-off (which seems to be supported by @realDonaldTrump tweets. The Mueller investigation seems to be generating a lot of headlines again (and I’m hearing a lot more going on behind the scenes). In the past, there is some evidence, the president reacted to Mueller actions and leaks by lashing out with policy of his own. It does also set the stage for the President wanting a major victory heading into the new year as the Democrats take over the House and fears of a subpoena war take hold. The President is a firm believer that a good offence is a good defense (which is good for those hoping for a trade). Now, back to the pitch I see three basic scenarios playing out We walk in a run. The game goes on, possibly to extra innings. The real-world equivalent is some promise by China to reduce the trade deficit, us putting on hold any new or increased tariffs and both sides agreeing that Intellectual Property rights are important and that both sides agree to focus on a plan to protect intellectual property rights. and when coupled with a less dogmatically hawkish Fed, we can get the year-end risk on rally, though people will be looking to fade that rally well ahead of January 1st. This is my highest probability scenario. I think if we get to the dinner, there is a decent chance some formal progress announcement is made. How strong that announcement is will determine the strength of the market reaction. A wild swing and a miss. Game over – we lose. In the real-world, we don’t even get to the dinner. We’ve already cancelled on meeting with Putin (for good reason, but it does show, we aren’t afraid to cancel). We are supposedly bringing Navarro to the dinner, which doesn’t seem like the best idea for a cordial dinner. Chinese papers seem to be downplaying the G-20 as a whole, and the Trump dinner. Could something happen between the sides or to the President’s agenda between now and Saturday that derails the event? Certainly, if the President doesn’t feel we are getting treated as we should, it seems within his nature. It could even be a good negotiating ploy to show China that we are deadly serious. Markets will hate that. I view this as a low probability outcome, but certainly a non-zero probability. Boom! A Grand Slam! A walk-off for the Mighty Trump. China is being hurt more than we know. Xi needs to focus on domestic issues and this trade war with the U.S. isn’t helping him as it is hurting the economy and distracting his focus from urgent matters at home. Leader for life is a good thing until you consider what would end it. Okay, that was over the top, but he has domestic economy that is declining rapidly, possible credit bubbles and wealth inequality at an extreme scale. They need soybeans. They need LNG. Stop being stubborn and agree to buy what you need form us, your largest consumer. Intellectual Property protection might be easier to give up on than we believe, as it can be very difficult to prove and at this point China may believe they have enough IP of their won that they want to protect that too. I don’t think either side has done enough talking to get to this sort of a deal, so it is also a low probability event. Does it even matter... It wouldn’t be the first time that the market fixates on something only to decide that it doesn’t really matter in the end. Maybe a less hawkish Fed, one that is going to slow the pace of hikes and might leave the balance sheet larger (ending QT sooner than later) is all that matters near term for risk? A little bit depressing if nothing else matters, but making me less depressed about what the market reacts to seems low on the Fed’s or the markets’ list of priorities. Have a good month-end, many will be happy to see November done, and I look forward to chatting with many of you on Sunday night as futures open.
Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog, Back in 2009, then Federal Reserve chief, Ben Bernanke, was quite clear and adamant that the Federal Reserve would not monetize the US debt. What did that mean? Simply put, the Fed would not use money creation as a permanent source of financing for US government spending...(nor as a means to artificially boost asset prices???). In his own words, testifying before Congress, on this clip..."The Fed will not monetize the debt...". Subsequently, in a November 2010 speech, then St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said: "The (FOMC) has often stated its intention to return the Fed balance sheet to normal, pre-crisis levels over time. Once that is done, the Fed will be left with just as much debt held by the public as before the Fed took any of these actions." Seems with a bit of hindsight, almost ten years down the road, we should ask: Did the Fed monetize the debt? Yes. Will the Fed return its balance sheet to the $800 billion of publicly held debt it held prior to 2008? Unequivocally, no! The Fed is now communicating their goal is a balance sheet somewhere from 2x's to 3x's larger than in 2008 ($1.6 to $2.4 trillion...but I'll be amazed if they ever get it close to 4x's that of 2008, or $3.2 trillion). At present, the Fed's balance sheet is still over 5x's that of 2008...Fed Chief Powell has signaled that the conclusion to the interest rate hike cycle appears to be dead ahead, with one to two more hikes remaining (perhaps December and March). And from there, the next economic crisis in an acutely interest rate sensitive economy/financial system, will likely be at hand despite the slightest and slowest set of hikes in Fed history. But before the next chapter begins, let's finish the overview on the current chapter, particularly noting the moonshot in public debt (red line, chart below) and then checking the monetization question. 1- Fed holdings of Treasury's (blue line) and MBS (maroon line) versus private bank excess reserves (black line). Since QE ended at year end 2014, Fed combined holdings of Treasury and MBS have fallen by less than $300 billion, bank excess reserves have fallen nearly $1.1 trillion. The point? Bank excess reserves continue falling faster than the Fed's balance sheet...or put otherwise, the banks are a like a sponge and the excess reserves being wrung out faster than the Fed's QT are like an ongoing QE. 2- Fed balance sheet (brown line), bank excess reserves (black line), IOER (Interest paid On private bank Excess Reserves...blue shaded area), and monetization (amount above and beyond QE created and that held as excess reserves by banks...yellow line). Quite noteworthy is the ongoing rise in monetization throughout the QE and post QE periods. 3- Same as above but starting from later half of 2014 with "QE end" and "QT begin" (quantitative tightening) callouts. In 2016, the Fed began regular rate hikes (hiking IOER's), effectively stemming the flood of excess reserves and monetization (at least temporarily) and by late 2017 undertook quantitative tightening. But still, the pace of tightening combined with higher IOER's hasn't kept pace with declining excess reserves resulting in the maintenance of monetization. 4- What impact could declining excess reserves (resulting in monetization...with who knows what amount of leverage) have on asset prices? Chart below shows monetization (yellow line) versus the Wilshire 5000 (black line, representing all publicly traded US stock). FYR - A trillion and a half dollars of monetization sitting with private banks, levered anywhere from 5 to 10 times, is a quick $7.5 to $15 trillion in purchasing power?!? 5- Same as above, but from 2015 (QE end) through present. Note, the quantity of monetization has become rather stable at the present quantity...and the Wilshire has essentially become range-bound. Correlation? Causation? You decide. Conclusion: In the post QE era world, $1.5 trillion in direct monetization has already slipped into the economy/financial assets. Banks still sit on another $1.6 trillion in excess reserves and the Fed pays them billions to neither lend nor invest those trillions. However, as the Fed has now signaled they will soon cease raising rates, which is probably the pre-cursor of the next set of interest rate cuts...what are these mega-banks, presently sitting on trillions of inert dollars, to do? Perhaps the Fed will continue to raise IOER's in an attempt to slow the release of reserves to be more in-line with the Fed's QT? Or will the "sponge", still with $1.6 trillion in excess reserves (awaiting leverage) continue to be wrung out faster than the Fed's QT, rushing of in search of assets? Of course, I don't know the answers but I hope to at least be asking some of the right questions. I am quite confident this is not the cause of our problems but a coping mechanism for a terribly flawed system, as I've described previously, HERE and HERE.
The host of Food Network's "Chopped," Ted Allen, is a fan favorite. Here's his net worth and what he's said about the show in the past.
This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.
Amid sliding national PMIs, plunging home and auto sales data, collapsing oil prices, and disappointing headlines everywhere, the purchasing manager of Chicago are ebullient... Just as the 'soft' survey data was starting to catch down to the reality of hard economic data, Chicago PMI explodes from 58.4 to 66.4 in October... This is well above the forecast range (50.3 - 60) from 28 economists surveyed: The number of components rising vs last month was five. Business barometer rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion New orders rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Employment rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Inventories rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion We await November's crash back to reality.
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The number of murders in London has fallen below that of New York City but could still hit a 10-year high if it continues at the current pace, police data analysed by Reuters shows.
Аргентинский нападающий "Барселоны" Лионель Месси был признан лучшим игроком минувшего 5-го тура Лиги чемпионов по результатам голосования на сайте Союза европейских футбольных ассоциаций (УЕФА). В матче против ПСВ (2:1) аргентинец отметился забитым мячом и голевым пасом.
В Европе отметили заслуги футболистов донецкого клуба.
Матчем между "Тампа-Бэй Лайтиннг" и "Баффало Сейбрз" продолжился очередной игровой день регулярного чемпионата Национальной хоккейной лиги. "Молнии" на своем льду с большим трудом одолели гостей со счетом 5:4. Российский форвард "Тампы" Никита Кучеров забросил шайбу и отдал голевой пас.
В четверг, 29 ноября, «Зенит» на своем поле принял «Копенгаген» в рамках пятого тура группового этапа Лиги Европы. «Зенит» победил, набрал 11 очков и обеспечил себе выход в плей-офф Лиги Европы.
A group of migrant women in the caravan announced Thursday that they would begin a hunger strike to protest the slow pace at which they are being allowed to apply for asylum, as officials from the United States and Mexico are set to meet this weekend to negotiate a plan to process their claims.The fast, which has no set end date, represents a dramatic escalation from the migrants, most of whom have been waiting in Tijuana, Mexico, to cross into the United States through official ports of entry for weeks.The protest raises the stakes for the governments of the United States and Mexico, which have been engaged in a back-and-forth about how to process migrants' asylum claims. On Sunday, President Donald Trump said on Twitter that Mexico would essentially act as a waiting room for migrants as their applications are processed in the United States, though Mexican officials said no deal had been agreed to yet.Fifteen women are set to begin striking, and they expect the number will increase gradually. The women who led the group said they want the governments to expedite humanitarian visas for them, to increase the number of migrants being allowed to cross into the United States, and to halt any deportations against migrants."There is nothing worse than to live on the run, withstanding hunger," one of the women said in a press conference live streamed by immigrant rights group Pueblo Sin Fronteras. "We are not afraid." The women also said they would send a delegate to engage in talks with Mexican immigration authorities. The fast could put pressure on the incoming administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who will be inaugurated as Mexico's president on Saturday. U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kirstjen Nielsen and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are expected to meet with the incoming administration, including soon-to-be Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, to hammer out a plan for processing migrants after disagreements over the weekend.Last month, outgoing Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto announced a plan that provided temporary employment for migrants in two states in southern Mexico aimed at enticing them not to continue trekking northward. U.S. authorities are only allowing between 40 and 100 migrants to claim asylum and there were hundreds of asylum seekers waiting to cross by the time the caravan arrived in Tijuana, across from San Diego, Calif.Further discord over how to deal with the asylum seekers has unleashed internecine fighting in the White House, exposing fault lines among those in the administration who have opposing views on, among other subjects, the use of force against the migrants by troops deployed along the border.While in Tijuana, tensions have risen as self-avowed nationalists have staged marches against the migrants. Last weekend, when some migrants broke away from a peaceful protest to cross the border, U.S. Border Patrol deployed tear gas against them. Irineo Mujica, the director of Pueblo Sin Fronteras, said the hunger strike comes at a breaking point in the caravan's negotiations with immigration authorities."We have been in talks with the new government, with the old government. They haven't fixed anything," Mujica said. "The government just keeps making promises and we just keep waiting."Article originally published on POLITICO Magazine]]>
Today, Speaker Ryan sat down for an extended conversation with The Washington Post’s Paul Kane to discuss his legislative legacy and what he’s most proud of over his two decades in Congress. Watch the full discussion here and check out the excerpts below: Speaker Ryan: “I like to think that I took the opportunity I was given and made a positive difference in people’s lives. . . .I’m proud of the fact that the House since I was Budget Chair, every year, every session, has passed a budget that shows how we would balance the budget and how we would pay off the debt. . . .And then on the poverty issues. People don’t really report this too much but social impact bonds, opportunity zones, I think our members have gotten more attuned to this issue. It’s the stuff that Bob Woodson and I preach about. It’s the stuff I learned from Jack Kemp. Evidence-based policymaking, we’ve made a really good impact on that. And then there are just certain things, like rebuilding the military and the tax system. Those are policy achievements I’m proudest of.” Speaker Ryan: “I think history is going to be very good to this majority. Why? The tax system was atrocious. I spent my adult life working on tax reform. Ever since I did it with Jack Kemp, working on the issue. We really did have the worst tax system in the industrialized world, and it was hollowing out American competitiveness. We have now put underneath the economy a far, far stronger foundation for a healthy economy and growth because of that. I was extremely worried about our national security posture, meaning our military. We have now put underneath that a much stronger foundation. What I have been saying to my staff all along, and our members, is our job in the majority is to improve the health and the antibodies of the American economy, of the American system. So what we were aiming to do was strengthen America’s resilience, America’s health, America’s antibodies…So whatever comes our way, we are stronger and better prepared for those things. I really believe that we have done that in this last two-year session. So there are so many things that we’ve done. I was working on enterprise zones when I was 23 years old. It’s the law of the land now. We call them opportunity zones. I’m so excited about so many of the things we’ve done.” Speaker Ryan: “Take a look at this session we’re completing. We will have passed over a thousand bills out of the House. That is a record pace. You haven’t seen a pace like that since the early 1980s…It doesn’t get a lot of play, but that’s what I would call ‘governing.’ For the first time in 22 years, 75 percent of all discretionary spending is done, it’s passed, it’s in law, it’s on time, ahead of the fiscal year deadline. You know these things. So, I’d say we became a pretty good governing party.”
ПАСЕ проголосовала за решение признать Россию «страной-агрессором» в поправках к резолюции о пропавших без вести в ходе конфликта на Украине. Кроме того, в документе территория Крыма названа «оккупированной»