Inside why global TIPS ETFs can see solid trading in 2017.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled $2 billion of net cash from the Pimco Total Return Fund, once the world's largest bond fund, in November, bringing year-to-date total cash withdrawals to $12.9...
Pimco Total Return Fund, который на протяжении двух десятилетий являлся крупнейшим фондом активных инвестиций в американские облигации, уступил лидерство Metropolitan West Total Return Bond Fund, пишет The Wall Street Journal.
PIMCO Total Return Fund, который на протяжении двух десятилетий являлся крупнейшим фондом активных инвестиций в американские облигации, уступил лидерство Metropolitan West Total Return Bond Fund, пишет The Wall Street Journal.
This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.
This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.
This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.
Pimco to pay $20 million to settle charges it misled investors about the performance of the PIMCO Total Return Active ETF
Inside the top ETF Stories of November.
PIMCO All Asset All Authority A Fund (PAUAX) a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) was incepted in July 2005
Conduit CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Security) debt outstanding is down from $740 billion in 2007 to $400 billion currently according a recent note from Goldman Sachs. The Non-Agency RMBS (Residential Mortgage Backed Security) Market, not backed by the US Government, has been contracting at a rate of 10 percent year, mostly due to prepayments and studious lenders paying off their loans. Agency RMBS (loans backed by the US Government) have been steadily climbing, reaching a level of $200 billion in issuance for the trailing 12 months. When it comes to refinancing, 40% of conventional refinances have involved cash-out transactions according to Goldman's Marty Young. Low Rates Have Skewed Lender Incentives The growth in agency RMBS has overshadowed by the growth in US Treasury debt which is expanding at rate of $1 trillion over the trailing 12 months. This growth has led Mr. Young's team to forecast the US Fed will "put off shrinking the balance sheet until mid-2018." DoubleLine's Jeffery Gundlach warned about 2018 debt bombs, something central bank balance sheets have morphed into, at Charles Schwab's 2016 Impact conference saying "We're in the eye of a hurricane for the next three to four years" according to Bloomberg. He added "come 2018, 2019, and 2020, look out!" If 2016 is not 2008 then 2018 surely will be, although on a much grander scale as global finance has transitioned away from Non-Agency risk (IE: Lehman, AIG) to Agency risk (IE: Fannie, Freddie, and Gennie) so as to more easily allow the Fed to buy toxic paper from the banks since the Fed is literally the only remaining source for any form for finance strength because they can generate money. Gundlach is right to be concerned. Agency RMBS has just pushed a new four-year high as of September according to Goldman's Young. Debt issuance has been rising thanks to lower rates and looser mortgage loan standards according to TheMortgageReports.com which noted minimum credit scores required for loan approvals have declined while the maximum threshold for loan-to-values have increased. Makes it pretty darn easy to ramp your national debt 100% with all these easier credit now floating around. While it is true that the year-over-year percent change in US debt has contracted from the 2008 surge, it still remains around 5 percent using data from the St. Louis Fred: The US Government (on behave of the citizens) is not the only paper issuer going hogwild either. Societe General's Andrew Lapthorne showed in a October 21 note that US Corporate debt issuance "is still out of control", which is exactly what caused valuation metrics to skew, as I previously wrote. Non-agency RMBS has been shunned relative to Agency likely for two reasons: the first being that Agency loans are backed by the US government and the second being the convoluted environment which Non-Agency paper exists coupled with a lack of demand of home loans due to the shift in demand to rentals: Non-Agency lenders inherently must account for the risks associated with the various trances embedded in the multiple offerings of non-Agency securities and also worry over the possibility of no repayment. PIMCO wrote back in 2014 that non-Agency paper traders also need very specific analysis to account for the variables involved in making the optimal relative value decision. PIMCO wrote about the need for granular housing analysis required to truely find value in the non-Agency market, saying: "This means that an investor’s view on the trajectory of home prices needs to be extremely granular. To develop a forecast on national home prices, PIMCO uses macroeconomic conclusions from its quarterly forums, as well as forecasts tailored by zip code, based on key factors including local income and unemployment trends, market dynamics (foreclosure laws, backlog of distressed supply), data and anecdotal information from our non-performing loans business and local market qualitative research (PIMCO “ride-alongs”)" Ok, so maybe the Non-Agency trading world isn't for everyone but it does impact us as emotions sway during prosperous times and difficult times. Rising Rate Environment Bad For Financially Stretched Borrowers Even as Wall Street tries to predict the next Fed rate hike and while the US 10-year yield slowly creeps higher, home-owners looking to refinance steadily trends higher according to Goldman: There remains little reason to believe that refis will ramp up before the December rate hike, which has a 50 percent chance of happening but none-the-less has not stopped Wall Street from betting on the percent probability of an event that has a 50-50 outcome. If rates begin to rise, the FRBNY shows that borrowers incentives to refi and prepay decreases: If anything increases the demand for refis it will be the destressed borrowers still lingering around. The studious borrowers have fallen off record and the remaining paper left to track is essentially the remaining delinquent borrowers, which results in the spikes below for 2005 and 2006 as loans come due: Weak loans, weak financial dynamics among borrowers, low-rates and a chase for yield have generated a perfect storm again as the world's efforts to hide-the-debt are beginning to fail. The New York Federal Reserve Bank shared a presentation in May 2016 highlighting the near $9.5 trillion mortgage credit line the US has, which makes up about 24 percent of the country's total non-financial debt: The Fed is making it worse as each forgone opportunity to raise rates continues to erode the long-standing base on which financial market trust has historically stood. On October 21 Societe General's Andrew Lapthorne highlighted the collapsing yield impact on assets. Yield is what gives money value and as it dissipates, fiat currency is seen as what it really is - paper with no intrinsic value. When yields or more specific, returns, are depressed, savers lose incentive to save. The Takeaway Macro policy has failed depending on how you want to look at it. In hindsight one could assume things would be better today if the Fed had just allowed the market to establish fair-market prices in an effort to account for the excessive lending fraud the US experienced at the turn of the millennium. Or one could assume if the Fed did nothing we would not have the pleasure of 8 years of manipulated markets because global markets would have spiraled out of control. Complexity demands trust. If it did not, then the rational understanding we have in the markets would be reflected in the prices. Yet, as economic activity dissipates prices keep rising because the Fed is there to buy up assets and create value through anchored adjustments. Psychology is an age old Fed tool and they've recently used it to control inflation as the money supply swelled following the Great Manipulation Recession.
Below we share with you three best-rated PIMCO mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
Below we share with you three best-rated real estate mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy)
Trump shapes White House, hires establishment figure, firebrand (Reuters) The Trump Effect: Rout in Global Bonds and Emerging Markets Intensifies (BBG); Government Bond Rout Deepens (WSJ); Dollar soars as U.S. yields spike; global shares divided (Reuters) Oil pinned near three-month lows as gloom grows over OPEC (Reuters) Thin Rank of Donors May Contend for Top Posts (WSJ) Trump’s Election Upends Agenda for Obama’s Last Foreign Trip (BBG) Britain building contacts with President-elect Trump: PM's spokeswoman (Reuters) How Trump’s Plans Could Be Stymied by Fiscal Hawks (BBG) China's Xi tells Trump cooperation is only choice (Reuters) China Pumps the Brakes on U.S. Dealmaking After Trump Win (BBG) China October crude oil output drops to lowest since May 2009 (Reuters) 'Utter devastation' after major quake, aftershocks hit New Zealand (Reuters) Double tectonic shifts may have teamed in New Zealand quake (Reuters) Election over, Congress pivots to lame-duck debate over spending (Reuters) Where Have All the Activists Gone? Down-Market (WSJ) UniCredit, SocGen decline to comment on merger rumor (Reuters) The end of the era of central bank independence (FT) American Apparel files for second bankruptcy in just over a year (Reuters) U.S. Two-Year Yield Tops 1%; Pimco Says Rates May Be Bottoming (BBG) Sterling slips back below $1.25 as dollar rallies (Reuters) Goldman Sees the Possibility of Stagflation Under Trump Presidency (BBG) Saudi central bank: hopes money rates to keep falling, not worried by U.S. (Reuters) It’s Not Just Deutsche Bank; German Banking Gloom in Charts (BBG) Global Warming Nears Tipping Point (BBG) Federal Reserve’s vice-chair readies markets for rate rise (FT) Samsung to buy car tech firm Harman for $8 billion, South Korea's biggest overseas deal (Reuters) Siemens to buy Mentor Graphics in $4.5 billion deal (Reuters) One Less Haven for Investors as Trump Damages Denmark’s Appeal (BBG) Trudeau Clears Path for Canada to Approve Kinder Morgan Pipeline (BBG) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - President-elect Donald Trump named Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus as his chief of staff, a selection that suggests the Republican is interested in a more conventional approach to governing after his insurgent campaign. http://on.wsj.com/2f6vPnb - Central-bank moves are pulling down returns for government-run funds, making it difficult to meet mounting obligations to workers and retirees. Low rates are exacerbating existing cash problems. http://on.wsj.com/2eRYtHR - The presidency of Donald Trump is poised to usher in a new era for the U.S. economy that forecasters say could boost economic growth, bring higher interest rates and inflation, and a new set of potential risks including international trade wars. http://on.wsj.com/2ev9GCP - Iraqi troops pushed deeper into the country's second largest city on Sunday, securing densely populated areas as commanders said Islamic State resistance began to buckle. http://on.wsj.com/2foY7wa - As the battle for control of the $40 billion media empire spanning Viacom Inc and CBS Corp was escalating over the summer, the 30-year-old grandson of controlling shareholder Sumner Redstone secretly reached out to Viacom's embattled chief executive, Philippe Dauman, to begin settlement talks. http://on.wsj.com/2fNSXXq - Orange County, Southern California's cradle of conservatism, voted for Hillary Clinton, the first time the county supported a Democratic presidential candidate since 1936 and signaling the state is now a political outlier. http://on.wsj.com/2fofE7R - The fund that manages Alaska's oil royalties made $300 million with a bet on rental homes, part of a drive to diversify investments that has helped offset the blow to revenue caused by the falling price of crude. http://on.wsj.com/2fQmbqk - Shareholders are set to vote Tuesday on a $1.2 billion deal for AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc to acquire Carmike Cinemas Inc. If that is cleared, and combined with AMC's $650 million purchase of Europe's Odeon & UCI Cinemas, AMC's theatrical footprint would expand to about 900 locations, from about 388. http://on.wsj.com/2fp2kjj - Volkswagen AG and its Audi AG luxury unit on Saturday confirmed that U.S. and European investigators are looking into fresh irregularities related to carbon dioxide emissions levels in certain Audi automatic-transmission vehicles. http://on.wsj.com/2fMpEVa FT Volkswagen AG confirmed over the weekend that US and European regulators have been investigating emissions irregularities in petrol-engine cars made by Audi, its luxury unit. Rolls-Royce Holdings Plc profits would have been more than 700 million pounds lower last year if lucrative revenues from long-term service contracts had not been pulled forward, management is expected to tell shareholders this week. Lars Andersson, the dealmaker who helped Morgan Stanley earn up to $120 million for advising the U.S. agribusiness Monsanto Co on its $66 billion sale to Germany's Bayer AG in September, is leaving the U.S. investment bank Morgan Stanley to launch a new boutique advisory firm. Tesco Bank ignored warning signs that its vulnerable software was being targeted by cyber criminals for months before thousands of its customers had money stolen a week ago, according to internet security experts NYT - President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday chose Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee and a loyal campaign adviser, to be his White House chief of staff. nyti.ms/2fQMSeA - Trump appeared to soften some of his hardest-line campaign positions on immigration on Sunday, but he also restated his pledge to roll back abortion rights. nyti.ms/2fQQVaW - A powerful earthquake measuring 7.8 magnitude hit the east coast of New Zealand's South Island early Monday, causing tsunami waves and killing at least two people. nyti.ms/2fQRUrq - A penetrating silence enveloped Paris on Sunday morning as thousands of people across the city gathered for the anniversary of the deadliest terrorist attacks in France's postwar history. nyti.ms/2fQNEs - The town of Mountain View, Google Inc's home, is looking to increase its housing stock by as much as 50 percent - including as many as 10,000 units in the area around Google's main campus. (nyti.ms/2fQP7hV) - There is talk of Breitbart bureaus opening in Paris, Berlin and Cairo, spots where the populist right is on the rise, and a bigger newsroom is also expected in Washington. nyti.ms/2fQTuJX - Chelsea Manning has formally petitioned President Barack Obama to reduce the remainder of her 35-year sentence to the more than six years she has already served. nyti.ms/2fQTbPe Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Rogers Communications Inc says it will cut down on the frustration of waiting for the cable guy by letting customers track their technician's location in real time as a service van makes its way to their home. The new service will be launched on Monday in Hamilton, Ontario. https://tgam.ca/2eSnOkR ** Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and some of his senior cabinet ministers will spend Monday behind closed doors at Toronto's Shangri-La hotel, pitching investors on why they should park their billions in Canada. https://tgam.ca/2eSq8Z6 ** Canadian security experts are increasing their vigilance against activists' threats to the country's energy infrastructure, as civil-liberties advocates worry about the use of improper surveillance on peaceful opponents to major projects. https://tgam.ca/2eSqcIe NATIONAL POST ** Canadian doctors are increasingly medicating children with antidepressants and antipsychotics, suggests a new study. Experts worry this is the latest sign of using drugs to achieve "behavioural control". http://natpo.st/2eSkPcd ** Quebec's provincial Liberal Party has a reputation as a disciplined election-winning machine. But after holding power for 11 of the last 13 years, there are growing signs of decay in the party of Premier Philippe Couillard. http://natpo.st/2eSqUFr Britain The Times The former high court judge who will oversee RBS's compensation scheme for thousands of companies mistreated by its restructuring unit was misled by the bank in a court case over a business dispute. http://bit.ly/2fQ9ifQ The former finance director of Autonomy has been indicted in America over claims he worked with others to deceive Hewlett Packard and investors ahead of its $11 billion sale. http://bit.ly/2fQfeWl The Guardian GlaxoSmithKline has come top of a league table that monitors the availability of medicine in developing countries, with fellow UK drugmaker AstraZeneca making it into the top 10. http://bit.ly/2fQ9Kei The chairman of Royal Bank of Scotland has warned that banks could pull operations out of Britain unless Theresa May draws up transitional arrangements for the country's exit from the EU. http://bit.ly/2fQ9Z9c The Telegraph Dominic Chappell, the former owner of BHS, has been arrested for unpaid bills, it emerged, on the eve of a High Court deadline for him to provide evidence about why 6 million pounds is missing from BHS's balance sheet. http://bit.ly/2fQcCri Nissan Motor Co Ltd and other big Japanese manufacturers can only work in the UK if they are free to import parts from the EU, the country's ambassador said, warning the government not to slap taxes on the trade post-Brexit. http://bit.ly/2fQfTqR Sky News The former chairman of ARM Holdings, the British chip designer sold this year in a 24 billion pound deal, is making a rapid return to the technology sector with a new role at Ve Interactive, a fast-growing software company. http://bit.ly/2fQj8yv Energy firms have been accused of making "six times" the profit they admit to publicly , following an investigation into their finances. The claims are based on a report for Energy UK, which represents power firms, by respected accountancy firm PWC, according to the Sun newspaper. http://bit.ly/2fQfwMS The Independent The former bankrupt who bought BHS from Sir Philip Green for a pound has been reportedly arrested over unpaid tax. Dominic Chappell, 49, is alleged to have been arrested by HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) for failing to pay more than 500,000 pounds in tax on money from the doomed department store chain. http://ind.pn/2fQjx43
Monday started off where Friday left off, with the global reflation/stagflation trade in full swing as the dollar surge continues, pushing the DXY above 100 for the first time since December, global bond yields soaring, emerging market currencies tumbling, and the Yuan slammed below 6.85 for the first time. However, where Monday is different is that while European stocks and US index futures started off far higher, E-minis have now faded the entire overnight rally and are now red for the session, on concerns that the spike in yields will cap any more stock upside. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.7 percent, rising for a fourth-straight day, and set for the largest gain over such a period since 2009. As the dollar surges, emerging markets are getting crushed again and the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slid 0.2 percent, extending last week’s 2.27 percent drop, the deepest five-day loss since June 2013. The lira and Hungarian forint tumbled more than 0.9 percent. However, while market cheerleaders will point to the imminent new all time highs in the DJIA, it is the rout in bond markets that is the real story as both UK 10Y gilts, Spanish 10Y and Italian 10Y bonds all plunging by the biggest intraday amount in almost a year. As Bloomberg notes, the global bond rout is intensifying, sending U.S. 30-year yields above 3 percent for the first time since January, and the 2-year yield above 1% for the first time since January on speculation that inflation will quicken as Donald Trump tries to increase spending to boost the world’s largest economy. “Yields will continue to rise over the next year,” said Hiroki Shimazu, an economist and strategist at the Japanese unit of MCP Asset Management in Tokyo. “The fundamentals are very strong, particularly in the U.S. There are some signs of higher inflation pressures. Trump is pushing this phenomenon.” Benchmark German 10-year bonds headed for their longest losing streak since May, and those on similar-maturity Italian debt climbed to the highest since July 2015. U.K. 10-year gilts extended their slide to a sixth day, pushing yields to a five-month high. Portuguese yields rose above 3.6 percent for the first time since October. Since the Nov. 8 election, developing-nation local-currency bonds tumbled 7.3 percent through Nov. 11, the biggest three-day slump since October 2008. The decline cut the bonds’ return this year to 8.5 percent. Thirty-year bond yields climbed six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 3.00 percent as of 10:08 a.m. in London, and earlier touched 3.03 percent, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 2.875 percent security due in November 2046 fell 1 3/32, or $10.94 per $1,000 face amount, to 97 21/32. Government bonds also extended losses across the Asia-Pacific region. Thailand’s 10-year yield jumped by the most since May after foreign investors pulled a record 27 billion baht ($763 million) from the nation’s bond market on Friday, while similar-maturity debt in China dropped for a seventh day, the longest losing streak in three years. “Trump has introduced so much uncertainty -- around the fiscal outlook, the outlook for foreign demand for Treasuries given his protectionism and his views on China, uncertainty around the outlook for the Fed,” said John Davies, an interest-rate strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in London, which adjusted its forecast for 10-year Treasuries yields to 3 percent in the end of 2017 from below 2 percent previously. “There’s an uncertainty premium, rather than just expectations of much more Fed tightening,” being priced into Treasuries, he said. “We think there’s room for this to continue.” U.S. 10-year note yields jumped seven basis points to 2.23 percent. The selloff wiped a record $1.2 trillion off the value of bonds around the world last week when Trump was elected U.S. president. Investors rotated into stocks, as global developed-market shares beat investment-grade debt by the most since 2011 amid concern the stimulus will stoke inflation and lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Pacific Investment Management Co. said the central bank may move three times by the end of 2017. “Yields will continue to rise over the next year,” said Hiroki Shimazu, an economist and strategist at the Japanese unit of MCP Asset Management in Tokyo. “The fundamentals are very strong, particularly in the U.S. There are some signs of higher inflation pressures. Trump is pushing this phenomenon.” The move marks a reversal from four months ago when benchmark Treasury yields fell to a record low of 1.318 percent. “Long-term interest rates seem to be bottoming out,” Pimco, which runs the world’s biggest actively managed bond fund, said in a post on Twitter Nov. 11. As Goldman and Deutsche Bank both warned on Friday, keep an eye on yields: while it is unclear what the level is, with GS expecting around 2.50% while DB suggesting "somewhere around here", the US 10 Year will soon reach that level which makes further equity gains impossible due to both concerns imminent Fed rate hikes will tighten financial conditions, while growing fears that inflation will sap corporate profits will likely also result in equity selling in the near future. “In the short-term the election of Donald Trump as president is causing a bit of uncertainty and markets tend to overreact to that,” said Shane Oliver, Sydney-based head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors Ltd., which manages about $121 billion. “I suspect the dust will settle down in the next couple of months and this sort of market overreaction will provide opportunities.” S&P 500 Index futures were down modestly, wiping out a gain of as much as 0.5%, The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is likewise fading its early gains of 0.9%, after rallying last week by the most since July. The Index was supported by advances in miners and banks, seen as beneficiaries of Trump’s policies, with merger-and-acquisition activity also providing a fillip. Among the deals being discussed: Siemens AG climbed 1.7 percent after agreeing to buy Mentor Graphics Corp. for $4.5 billion to expand its industrial software capabilities. Intrum Justitia AB jumped 12 percent after Europe’s biggest debt collector said it is acquiring competitor Lindorff in a $1.96 billion deal. Harman International Industries Inc. agreed to be acquired by Samsung Electronics Co. Novartis AG was little changed after people familiar with the matter said the Swiss health-care company is in talks to acquire U.S. generic-drugs maker Amneal Pharmaceuticals LLC. Meanwhile, with the Dow Jones flirting with all time highs again, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.9 percent, headed for its lowest close since July 8. * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities trade higher across the board with financials once again leading the way higher with markets eyeing Trump's latest key appointments USD strength continues to be the main theme of FX markets with the USD-index breaking above 100.00 to the upside Looking ahead, highlights include ECB's Draghi, Praet, Fed's Kaplan, Lacker and Williams Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2169 Stoxx 600 up 0.9% to 341 FTSE 100 up 1% to 6800 DAX up 1% to 10770 German 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.36% Italian 10Yr yield up 12bps to 2.14% Spanish 10Yr yield up 12bps to 1.59% S&P GSCI Index up less than 0.1% to 351.5 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.5% to 135 Nikkei 225 up 1.7% to 17673 Hang Seng down 1.4% to 22222 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3210 S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5346 US 10-yr yield up 7bps to 2.22% Dollar Index up 0.73% to 99.78 WTI Crude futures down 0.3% to $43.27 Brent Futures down 0.1% to $44.69 Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,227 Silver spot down 0.1% to $17.35 Global Headline News Samsung to Buy Harman for $8 Billion Cash in Automotive Push: Harman gets more than 65% of sales from automotive sector Siemens Buys Software Maker Mentor Graphics for $4.5 Billion: Deal is Siemens’s biggest since Dresser-Rand two years ago as it seeks to expand in industrial software Priebus Named Trump’s Chief of Staff, Bannon as Strategist: Twin appointments are an attempt to balance the alternative right, represented by Stephen Bannon, with the establishment Republican Party, represented by Reince Priebus Trump’s Infrastructure Plan to Cost $1t, Scaramucci Writes in FT Trump Says May Deport Up to 3 Million Undocumented Immigrants Novartis Said to Hold Talks to Buy Generics Maker Amneal: Amneal could be valued at as much as $8 billion in a sale China Economy Holds Ground Amid Curbs to Cool Housing Market: Industrial production, fixed-asset investment remain resilient Trudeau Clears Path for Canada to Approve Kinder Morgan Pipeline: Green measures give PM political cover for Dec. 19 decision ‘Dr. Strange’ Beats 3 New Releases to Hold Box-Office Lead * * * Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks traded mixed following a similar close last Friday on Wall St, where post-election gains lost steam amid weakness across the energy complex, in which both WTI and Brent crude futures declined by over USD 1.00/bbl. Nikkei 225 (+1.7%) outperformed amid JPY weakness and a firm Q3 GDP release. ASX 200 (-0.6%) closed in the red as energy and mining sectors weighed on the index after gold extended on Friday's USD 30/oz slump. Hang Seng (-1.4%) conformed to the downbeat market conditions following gains in HK money market rates and disappointing Chinese data in which New Yuan Loans, Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all missed expectations, while Shanghai Comp (+0.5%) was underpinned from a firm liquidity injection by the PBoC. Elsewhere, a story in the WSJ that President-elect Trump chose Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus as White House Chief of Staff has led US equity futures higher with Mini Dow Jones trading higher by nearly 100 points, as some have suggested that this move by Trump is positive and hinted of a more conventional approach. 10yr JGBs extended on Friday's lows amid the advances seen in Japanese stocks, while a firm GDP release also dampened hopes for BoJ action. Japanese GDP (Q3 P) Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prey. 0.2%); Annualized Y/Y 2.2% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prey. 0.7%).Chinese Industrial Production (Oct) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prey. 6.1%); YTD 6.0% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prey. 6.0%). Chinese Retail Sales (Oct) Y/Y 10.0% vs. Exp. 10.7% (Prey. 10.7%); YTD 10.3% vs. Exp. 10.4% (Prey. 10.4%). Top Asian News Exports Drive Japan’s Economy to Unexpectedly Strong Growth: Net exports, or shipments less imports, added 0.5 ppt to GDP Hong Kong Said to Plan to Allow Leveraged ETFs of Local Stocks: Regulator plans to approve local indexes in 2017 after review Mizuho Profit Beats Estimates as Tax Gain Offsets Loan Slump: 2Q net 225.5b yen vs est. 182.2b yen Alibaba Wants Its $18 Billion Singles’ Day to Be More, Mean Less: Company has been downplaying gross merchandise volume metric PLDT to Complete December Refinancing Facilities for 2017 Debt: $470m of committed refinancing already signed In Europe, the risk on sentiment has seen equities spend the morning in the green (DAX: +1.1%), with financials outperforming as has been the case since the Trump transition team confirmed that the president elect remains keen to repeal Dodd Frank Act. Outperformance in financials has been exacerbated by the latest merger talk, with Ansa noting source reports of a potential merger between Unicredit (+2.5%) and SocGen (+1.9%), although both companies have refused to comment on any rumours. Finally, fixed income markets have continued to see pressure as with T-notes running in to sellers amid reports of 1480 block trade sell order overnight, keeping the price around the lows. Bunds opened below the psychological 160.00 level to head into mid-morning lower by 60 ticks. The periphery has seen the 10Y PGB/Bono spread widen this morning as EU's Moscovici reiterated that they are waiting for a new draft for the Spanish budget, in order to confirm to 2017 deficit targets, with reports suggesting PM Rajoy could call a snap election if congress were to refuse to pass his budget. Top European News EU Offers Trump Cooperation While Signaling Policy Firmness: Europe draws red lines on climate, Iran, Russia positions Brexit Threatens to Ignite European Skirmishes Over EU Budget: Focus on 12.8 billion euros of spending shifts in 2017-2020 Brexit Costs U.K. $82 Billion in Lost Company Spending: Study shows more than 40% of U.K. businesses have delayed or canceled investments since the vote to leave the European Union CME Said to Consider Dublin Clearing Options Amid Brexit Fallout: Exchange’s European clearinghouse considers links in Ireland as part of effort to maintain access to European Union customers In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index jumped 0.7 percent, rising for a fourth-straight day, and set for the largest gain over such a period since 2009. The euro fell versus the greenback for a sixth day, its longest run of declines in six months, dropping 0.9 percent to $1.0760, a level last seen in January. The yen sank 1.2 percent and touched its weakest level since early June. Japan’s economy expanded by an annualized 2.2 percent in the last quarter, data showed Monday, exceeding the 0.8 percent expansion forecast in a Bloomberg survey and easing pressure on the Bank of Japan to add stimulus.“The dollar is strengthening along with the rise in U.S. yields, reflecting expectations for economic expansion from fiscal spending,” said Yunosuke Ikeda, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s head of Japan foreign-exchange research in Tokyo. “Japan’s 2 percent growth can be used as a reason for the BOJ not lowering interest rates for a while.” The pound fell 0.7 percent to $1.2514, wiping out a 0.6 percent gain last week. The Swiss franc advanced to the strongest level since June 24 against the euro. New Zealand’s dollar dropped to a one-month low after an earthquake rocked the country early Monday. South Korea’s won dropped to its weakest level since June amid growing calls for President Park Geun-hye to be impeached over an influence-peddling scandal, while China’s yuan slid to a six-year low. Mexico’s peso fluctuated after a Trump adviser hinted in a Financial Times opinion piece that the president-elect is open to negotiations before imposing import barriers. It tumbled 12 percent in the three days following the election of Trump, who had campaigned on promises to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement, crack down on illegal immigration, and build a wall along the southern U.S. border. In commodities, copper rallied as much as 3.4 percent in London. It surged 11 percent last week as Trump pledged to spend more than $500 billion rebuilding U.S. infrastructure and Chinese investors stepped up purchases. All base metals except tin advanced on the London Metal Exchange. Iron ore climbed to a two-year high on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as data showed rising steel output in China, the world’s largest steelmaker. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the initial reaction of iron ore and copper prices to the infrastructure spending proposed by Trump has been excessive and analysts reiterated their view for sequentially lower prices. Gold touched a five-month low, after sliding last week by the most in three years as the prospect of Fed rate increases strengthened the dollar. Oil slipped 0.4 percent as Iran boosted output and as U.S. explorers raised the number of active rigs to the most since February, signaling the persistence of a global supply glut. On today's US economic calendar there is little of note, however there will be a lot of Fed speakers with Kaplan, Lacker and Williams all speaking later today. US Event Calendar 10am: ECB’s Draghi speaks in Rome 1:20pm: Fed’s Kaplan speaks in Wichita Falls, Texas 5pm: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Chestertown, Md. 6:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Francisco 7:30pm: Reserve Bank of Australia issues meeting minutes * * * DB's Jim Reid completes the overnight event wrap If you're feeling irritable, depressed, with aggressive tendencies this morning it might have nothing to do with the events of last week. Instead it could be today's 'super' supermoon which adorns the night sky and brings our satellite 31,068 miles closer to us than it's furthest point in its orbit to what will be the shortest distance away from earth since 1948. If you feel the urge to howl like a werewolf try to hold it in until the moon starts retreating tomorrow or risk blowing your cover. This week will really all be about President-elect Trump's public comments and also those of his Republican party. The market is this morning reacting to Trump's appearance on CBS's 60 minutes program last night and also the significant early personnel appointments within Trump’s team, also announced late last night. With regards to the former, much is being made of the fact that Trump said he may be willing to compromise and leave certain parts of the existing Affordable Care Act as is, when he starts on his own initiative, and so indicating a slight softening on his initial views that Obamacare would be repealed. Unsurprisingly the TV interview also had a big focus on Trump’s immigration plans. The President-elect confirmed his intentions to deport or jail up to 3 million undocumented immigrants who had a criminal record but at the same time ‘make a determination’ on the remaining 8 to 9 million undocumented immigrants whom he also called ‘terrific people’. There was also a focus on financial regulation which he intends to make an urgent priority, reiterating that the Dodd-Frank Act will be ripped up or made smaller to allow ‘banks to lend again’. That other important news to highlight this morning is the announcement of the key appointment of Reince Preibus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, as Trump’s chief of staff. Campaign chairman, Stephen Bannon, has also been appointed as Trump’s chief strategist and senior counsellor. The suggestion is that the appointment of Preibus in particular will be seen as a somewhat market-friendly outcome, given his strong ties with Paul Ryan. He is also the candidate most likely seen as co-operating with Congress and promoting strong ties in Washington, alongside having a softer stance on certain policy matters. As the Washington Post made mention to, the ‘choice signals Trump’s willingness to work within the very establishment he assailed on the campaign trail’. The appointment of Bannon on the other hand is, as the BBC aptly presents, Trump ‘keeping an outsider devil on his shoulder’. It’ll be interesting then to see how the balance between the two appointments plays out in reality. Staying with this subject, tomorrow the House Republican Conference will hold its closed door leadership election. The chatter is that Speaker Paul Ryan will hold onto his current post following the clean sweep by the Republicans after there had been some question marks in the run up to the election. Tomorrow Ryan will need a majority of only-elected and new Republicans to be nominated, before then facing a vote by the full House in early January where a majority is needed.So as we refresh our screens this morning it’s been a broadly mixed start across Asia, although bourses have also had some important economic data releases to contend with. In Japan the Nikkei is +1.58%, helped by a better than expected Q3 GDP print for the country (+0.5% qoq vs. +0.3% expected) which was boosted by a bounce in net exports. In China the Shanghai Comp is +0.35% following more mixed data there. Industrial production in October was unchanged at 6.1% yoy but missed relative to the 6.2% consensus, while retail sales softened from 10.7% to 10.0% yoy (vs. 10.7% expected). There was better news with the fixed asset investment data however, where investment rose one-tenth to 8.3% yoy (vs. 8.2% expected). It’s worth also noting that the PBoC fixed the trading band for the renminbi at its weakest level since September 2009 this morning, following the recent bounce for the Greenback. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-1.17%), Kospi (-0.22%) and ASX (-0.80%) are all in the red, although US equity futures are up about +0.40%. Having been closed on Friday, 10y Treasury yields are up 4.6bps at 2.196% and Gold (-0.66%) has continued to weaken. Moving on. We will soon all be focused on the upcoming Italian Senate reform which would have been a big deal even without a Trump victory but has now got even greater focus. DB's Marco Stringa has upped his probability of a rejection to 60% from 55% previously. He also has just published a joint note with our fixed income and equity strategists which looks at every scenario imaginable in the weeks and months after the vote in 3 weeks. Marco still feels that even with a rejection being his central-case scenario, there is unlikely to be an immediate general election but a muddle-through government formed with limited scope and limited duration. Even a victory for Renzi might only postpone the risk (not remove it) of the worst case scenario for markets of a 5SM Government/coalition, a non-binding referendum on Euro membership and an 'out' vote (remember the Brexit referendum is technically non-binding too). The note puts the probability of this 3 stage worse case scenario somewhere between 2-15% depending on the different outcomes. If you love flow charts and scenario analysis then this is the research report for you. When thinking of these probabilities our take is to remember that in the middle of 2015 some were suggesting the probability of Trump winning the Republican nomination alone were around 1% and his probability of being President 150-1 at a similar time. So we live in unpredictable times. Thankfully my job isn't to make predictions.... oh hang on it is!! Another note that we want to highlight for readers this morning comes from our HouseView team. In light of the Election result, they have published a report entitled “A potential game changer”. They note that despite criticism of some of Trump’s policies, they could provide a material boost for growth and, in return, for risk assets, if they are implemented well. The team highlights that he has pledged a large fiscal stimulus, ambitious tax cuts and reduced regulation. The fiscal plan would represent the first tangible shift away from the policy mix that has prevailed since the crisis -- very accommodative monetary policy compensating for tight fiscal policy -- and that many investors have been hoping for this over the last year. At the same time the team also note that there is a risk that these policies will not be fully implemented, especially given that Trump’s fiscal plans could lead to a larger deficit than Congress will allow. This means that policy uncertainty will prevail for the time being. Moreover, not all of Trump’s proposals are positive. The biggest threat to growth is a possible protectionist turn, which could depress global trade and even trigger trade wars. A further risk is that Trump’s successes result in political spillovers to the upcoming elections in Europe by strengthening the fringes of the political spectrum. Back to markets and quickly reviewing Friday which, following an exhausting week and despite a US holiday, was still a turbulent day for bond markets. It was the periphery which really suffered with 10y BTP’s finishing +12.2bps higher in yield and closing above 2% (2.018% to be exact) for the first time since July 2015. The post election move for BTP’s is just shy of +27bps higher, while Spain and Portugal were +8.4bps and +8.7bps higher in yield on Friday respectively taking the post election move to around +20bps. 10y Bunds finished at 0.305% on Friday and a little over 3bps higher on the day (10.5bps since the election) but still the highest yield since March this year. The pain in EM continued meanwhile. 10y local currency Mexican bonds were +17.9bps higher in yield on Friday and over +100bps higher post election. In FX there were losses of greater than 1% on Friday for the likes of the Mexican Peso, South African Rand, Chilean Peso and Argentine Peso while equity markets in Mexico (-0.54%), Brazil (-3.30%), Chile (-1.51%) and Colombia (-1.55%) were sold in tow. That compared to a smaller -0.14% loss for the S&P 500 although the Dow did close +0.21% and extended its record highs. The wide dislocation across sectors is dominating still though. Industrials gained again on Friday while the S&P 500 banks index rose +0.40% and took its post election gain to an impressive +9.8%. Energy stocks were weak on both sides of the pond however with WTI plummeting -2.80% to close below $44/bbl as OPEC supply concerns remain elevated. It was the moves across the metals complex which really stood out on Friday though. Gold plummeted -2.51% and so capped the worst week (-5.93%) for the precious metal since June 2013. The intraday high to low range for Gold last week was actually a fairly incredible 8.83%. Meanwhile, Silver plummeted -6.68% on Friday and across base metals Copper (-1.65%) finally weakened for amazingly the first time in 3 weeks. Other base metals also weakened with the exception of Iron ore which rallied +7.68% to take its weekly gain to nearly +23% with the China credit stimulus story in full flow. Away from the market moves, datawise it was another fairly quiet day. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey appeared positive at first glance with the November headline consumer confidence reading rising 4.4pts to 91.6 (vs. 87.9 expected) with both the current conditions and expectations components up, but it was noted that the survey period covered October 28th through to election day so we’ll have to wait for further revisions to get the full impact from the result. That said, inflation expectations also moved up encouragingly while Fed Vice-Chair Fischer also highlighted on Friday that in his view the Fed is moving closer to achieving both the inflation and employment components of its dual mandate and so ‘accordingly, the case for removing accommodation gradually is quite strong, keeping in mind that the future is uncertain and that monetary policy is not on a preset course’. Turning over to the week ahead now. In terms of data, it’s a very quiet start to the week today with the only data this morning in Europe being the industrial production report for the Euro area. There’s nothing due out in the US this afternoon. We kick off tomorrow morning in Germany where the preliminary Q3 GDP report will be released. Shortly after that we get CPI in France and the full inflation data dump in the UK. Thereafter we get Q3 GDP for the Euro area and the November ZEW survey out of Germany. We’ve got important data in the US tomorrow too with October retail sales, September business inventories, November empire manufacturing and also the October import price index. Turning to Wednesday, the early data comes from the UK again with the September and October employment report. It’s another busy session in the US on Wednesday with October PPI, industrial and manufacturing production and also the NAHB housing market index print for this month. We kick off Thursday in France again where we’ll get Q3 employment numbers. Thereafter the UK reports October retail sales data before we get the final October CPI revisions for the Euro area. Over in the US on Thursday the big focus will be on the October CPI report, while housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed PMI round off another busy day. Friday morning it’s the turn of China where the October property prices data will be out. Over in Europe the only data of note is the PPI report in Germany while in the US we finish the week with the leading index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Away from the data, it’s an absolutely packed week for Fedspeak. Today we have Kaplan, Lacker and Williams all speaking tonight. Tomorrow we have Rosengren, Tarullo, Fischer and Kaplan all speaking from midday. On Wednesday it’s the turns of Bullard, Kashkari and Harker. Thursday is the big one with Fed Chair Yellen testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, while Brainard will also speak. On Friday we’ve also got Bullard, George and Kaplan on the cards. Meanwhile, over at the ECB we will hear from President Draghi today when he attends an event in Rome. With it also being Euro Finance week there is a steady stream of speakers throughout the week in Frankfurt. This year’s conference is called “Brexit, Banking, Bubbles – Chances and Risks in the New Normal”. If that wasn’t enough, in the UK BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to testify before Parliament on Tuesday. The other event to note is the scheduled meeting between President-elect Trump and Japanese PM Abe on Thursday.
Курс американского доллара в пятницу снижается относительно основных мировых валют после роста днем ранее.
06.03.2016 г. на ресурсе China Matters появилась публикация, очень точно нацеленная на нанесение репутационного ущерба Х.Клинтон в контексте предвыборной кампании в США Название статьи: «Ливия: хуже, чем Ирак. Прости, Хиллари». Ливийское фиаско может оказаться камнем преткновения в президентских притязаниях Хиллари Клинтон.
Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.
Вкладчики забирают свои деньги из американского фонда PIMCO . он потерял больше 20 миллиардов долларов. Так инвесторы реагируют на уход из компании одного из основателей Билла Гросса. А вот акции фонда Janus Capital, в который легендарный инвестор устроился на работу, стали пользоваться повышенным спросом. Как на этом заработать?
Pacific Investment Management Co. привлек средства клиентов, для того чтобы вложиться в "токсичные" активы, пишут западные СМИ со ссылкой на свои источники. Сейчас самое время для покупки "токсичных" активовТаким образом, Билл Гросс, глава PIMCO, одной из крупнейших в мире компаний по управлению активами, наконец сдался. Он стал, наверно, последним управляющим, который признал, что при доходности десятилетних трежерис в 2,5% покупать нужно акции, а не облигации. Многие коллеги по цеху уже давно сместили свои аппетиты в пользу более высокодоходных активов. Об этом свидетельствуют и последние данные по доходности, согласно которым самый большой фонд PIMCO уступает 70% своих конкурентов. Мало того, что Гросс изменил самому себе, так еще и активы для инвестиций, если верить источникам, выбраны самые что ни на есть "токсичные". Но обо всем по порядку. Речь идет о фонде Bravo II, в который было привлечено ни много ни мало $5,5 млрд. На данный момент он уже закрыт для новых клиентов. Так вот, эти деньги планируется вложить в банковский сектор США и Европы, но это будут не акции или облигации, это будут на самом деле "токсичные" активы, то есть те, от которых банкам в срочном порядке нужно избавиться. Иными словами, списать их со своих балансов. Commerzbank уже успел продать часть просроченных кредитовПо сути, это просроченные кредиты, выданные банками как на покупку жилья, так и на другие цели. Такого "добра" у европейских кредиторов, что называется, выше крыши. Недаром МВФ еще в 2012 г. обязал банкиров избавиться от этих "плохих" кредитов до 2014 г. По подсчетам валютного фонда, тогда объем "мусора" составлял порядка $4,5 млрд. Если взглянуть на календарь, то становится ясно - банки уже выбиваются из графика. Конечно, глупо полагать, что они еще не притрагивались к расчистке балансов, но найти достаточно покупателей на эти активы задача не из легких. Поскольку время на исходе, диктовать цену теперь будут исключительно покупатели. Банки же в свою очередь будут молить о покупке. И все же, это же "токсичный" долг, то есть кредиты, просроченные уже по нескольку раз. Как такой актив может стать хорошей инвестицией? Вероятно, может. Расчет делается на то, что цена, уплаченная за такие активы, ничтожно мала относительно ее номинала, а на фоне восстановления экономики есть шанс, что те безработные, которые и являются должниками, наконец найдут себе новое место на рынке труда и тогда "мертвый" кредит оживет. Платежи по нему быстро сделают такой долг прибыльным для держателя. Среди хедж-фондов есть даже специальная классификация для тех, кто занимается подобными инвестициями. Можно вспомнить, например, как фонд Марка Мобиуса вложился в бонды Греции практически на минимальных отметках. Заработок в итоге превысил 200%. Билл Гросс открывает новые идеиС поиском продавцов у PIMCO проблем возникнуть не должно. Предложение достаточно велико. Так, по информации The Wall Street Journal, Commerzbank в феврале продал свой портфель ипотечных кредитов, выданных в Испании за 710 млн евро. Британский RBS продал портфель кредитов под постройку коммерческой недвижимости хедж-фонду Varde Partners. А частная инвестиционная компания KKR из США совсем недавно завершила переговоры о покупки "токсических" активов у итальянских банков Intesa Sanpaolo и UniCredit. Остается вопрос, зачем PIMCO занимается несвойственной для себя работой? Ответ лежит на поверхности: из-за низкой доходности уже несколько месяцев подряд из фондов компании наблюдается отток средств. Для того чтобы наверстать упущенное, Билл Гросс и решился на этот поступок.