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27 июня, 22:55

Why The Fed Will Fail Once Again

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning, John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “Practical men who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist.” Truer words were never spoken, although if you updated Keynes today, the quote would begin with “practical women” to take account of Fed Chair Janet Yellen. The “defunct economist” in question would be William Phillips, inventor of the Phillips curve, who died in 1975. In its simplest form, the Phillips curve is a single-equation model that describes an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment. As unemployment declines, inflation goes up, and vice versa. The equation was put forward in an academic paper in 1958 and was considered a useful guide to policy in the 1960s and early 1970s. By the mid-1970s the Phillips curve broke down. The U.S. had high unemployment and high inflation at the same time, something called “stagflation.” Milton Friedman advanced the idea that the Phillips curve could only be valid in the short run because inflation in the long run is always determined by money supply. Economists began to tweak the original equation to add factors — some of which were not empirical at all but model-based. It became a mess of models based on models, none of which bore any particular relationship to reality. By the early 1980s, the Phillips curve was no longer taken seriously even by academics and seemed buried once and for all. RIP. But like a zombie from The Walking Dead, the Phillips curve is baaaack! And the person who has done the most to revive it is none other than Janet Yellen, the 70-year-old liberal labor economist who also happens to be chair of the Federal Reserve. Unemployment in the U.S. today is 4.3%, the lowest rate since the early 2000s. Yellen assumes this must result in inflation as scarce labor demands a pay raise and the economy pushes up against the limits of real growth. Yellen also agrees with Friedman that monetary policy works with a lag. If you believe that inflation is coming soon and that policy works with a lag, you better raise interest rates now to keep the inflation from getting out of control. That’s exactly what Yellen and her colleagues have been doing. Meanwhile, back in the real world, all signs point not to inflation but to deflation. Oil prices are declining, intermediate-term interest rates are falling, labor force participation is falling, demographics favor saving over spending and logistics and supply-chain giants like Wal-Mart and Amazon are relentlessly squashing price increases wherever they appear. Even traditional high-price sectors like college tuition and health care have been cooling off lately. Yellen and a small group of Fed insiders, including Bill Dudley and Stan Fischer, are keeping up the drumbeat for more rate hikes later this year. Opposition to more rate hikes among Fed officials is growing, including from Neel Kashkari, Lael Brainard and Charles Evans. This intellectual tug of war is coming to a head. First, bonds are rallying because the bond market expects a recession or slowdown due to unnecessary tightening by the Fed. Which brings me to Bill Gross… Practically every investor has heard of Bill Gross. For decades he was the head of PIMCO and ran the world’s largest bond fund. His specialty was U.S. Treasury debt.. PIMCO was always a “bigfoot” in the bond marketplace. In the 1980s and 1990s, I was chief credit officer at a major U.S. Treasury bond dealer, one of the so-called “primary dealers” who get to trade directly with the Federal Reserve open market operations trading desk. PIMCO had dedicated lines and a dedicated sales team at our firm. When they called to buy or sell, it would move markets. Every primary dealer wanted to be the first firm to get the call. Gross is famous for outperforming major bond indices by a wide margin. The way to do that is market timing. If you sell bonds just ahead of a rising rate environment, and buy them back when the Fed is ready to reverse course you not only capture most of the coupon and par value at maturity, you can book huge capital gains besides. Now Gross has issued one of his most stark warnings yet. He says that market risk levels today are higher than any time since just before the 2008 panic. We all know what happened then. Gross says it could happen again, and soon. No one reads the market better than Bill Gross. So, when he issues a warning, investors are wise to pay attention. The stock market is giving a different signal. Stocks are rallying because markets interpret Fed rate hikes as a signal that the economy is getting stronger.   Both markets cannot be right. Either stocks or bonds will crash in the weeks ahead. Gold is watching and waiting, moving down on deflation fears and then up again on the view that the Fed will have to reverse course once the economy cools down. My models show that bonds, Bill Gross and gold have it right and that stocks are heading for a fall. The stock market correction won’t come right away, because the Fed is still in a mode to talk up rate hikes and strong growth and to dismiss disinflation as “transitory.” Yet even Janet Yellen can’t ignore reality forever. The Atlanta Fed GDP growth forecast for the second quarter has gone from 4.3% on May 1, to 3.4% on June 2, to 2.9% on June 15. Today it released its latest growth forecast, which remains unchanged from its June 15 reading — 2.9%. Something is slowing down the economy, and that something is Fed rate hikes. By August, even the Fed will get the message. But by then it may be too late. If Q2 growth comes in at 2.5% combined with Q1 growth of 1.2%, that would put 2017 first-half growth at about 1.85%. That’s even weaker than the historically weak 2.0% growth of the current expansion since June 2009. This is not the stuff of which inflation is made. The Fed’s bungling should come as no surprise. The Federal Reserve has done almost nothing right for at least the past twenty years, if not longer. The Fed organized a bailout of Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, which arguably should have been allowed to fail (with a Lehman failure right behind) as a cautionary tale for Wall Street. Instead the bubbles got bigger, leading to a more catastrophic collapse in 2008. Greenspan kept rates too low for too long from 2002-2006, which led to the housing bubble and collapse. Bernanke conducted an “experiment” (his word) in quantitative easing from 2008-2013, which did not produce expected growth, but did produce new asset bubbles in stocks and emerging markets debt. Yellen is now raising rates in a weak economy, which should produce the same recessionary reaction as 1937, the last time the Fed raised into weakness. Why this trail of blunders? The answer is that the Fed is using obsolete and defective models such as the Phillips Curve and the so-called “wealth effect” to guide policy. None of this is new; I’ve been saying it for years in books, interviews and speeches. What is new is that even the mainstream media is beginning to see things the same way. Fed leaders have been exposed as charlatans, like the Professor in the Wizard of Oz. The Fed’s latest failure will cause policy to shift to ease before September in the form of forward guidance on no further rate hikes this year. Just one more failure in a long list. It’s time to load up on Treasury notes, gold and cash and lighten up on stocks. The Fed may be the last to learn about deflation, but when they do, the policy response could be instantaneous and markets could suffer whiplash. That’s what happens when zombies are on the loose.

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26 июня, 17:38

Why PIMCO Likes Municipal Bonds

David Hammer, Head of Municipal Portfolio Management for PIMCO, says the best opportunity today for municipal bond investors is in the high yield space. That’s not just because of interest rates. It’s got more to do with bond spreads than yield itself.

23 июня, 16:43

3 Top-Ranked PIMCO Mutual Funds to Increase Your Returns

Below we share with you three top-ranked PIMCO mutual funds. Each has earned a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank #1 (Strong Buy)

22 июня, 13:24

If BlackRock And Pimco Are Right, "Another Fed Shock Looms"

Discussing the market's ongoing reaction to the schizophrenic split between the hawkish Fed and a market which now sees a 50% lower terminal Fed Funds rate than the FOMC, yesterday Jeff Gundlach said that the flattening yield curve could become a concern for US economic growth when two and three-year notes yield about the same. "Lower CPI in the next couple of months will be a cold bucket of water for the Fed tightening dreams," Gundlach said. "Commodities are super weak, with the dollar down year-to-date, no less." In not so many words, an error is forming: either "policy error" by the Fed, or one by the market, which will be forced to reconcile its dovish stance, potentially in violent fashion, with the Fed's relentless "data independence." It was this issue that was the topic of a note by Bloomberg's macro commentator Garfield Reynolds, who noted in his overnight Macro View note, that in addition to the Gundlach "quandary", if recent commentary by BlackRock and Pimco is right, then "another Fed shock looms." His full note below: Another Fed Shock Looms If BlackRock, Pimco Right: Macro View   Once bitten, twice eager sounds like a contradiction but it can often seem like standard operating procedure in global markets - just look at the money piling into bets that the Federal Reserve is going nowhere soon with monetary tightening. It’s as if the February shock - when a deluge of Fedspeak made traders realize their bets against a March hike were wrong - never happened.    Even after Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear she anticipates further rate increases, the “policy error” narrative is going full bore. Eurodollar options and fed funds futures signal no more moves for at least three months and no more than one more this year.    Inflation is stubbornly low. Continuing sluggishness in U.S. data (surprise indexes are at about full disappointment settings) could stay the Fed’s hand, especially if employment joins the pity party.    But BlackRock and Pimco, who between them manage more than $6.5 trillion, indicated separately this week that weaker data may not necessarily be the end-all and be-all for the rate outlook.    Fed officials have noted their mandate goes beyond just looking at the current pace of inflation. That means the “excessive obsession some market watchers have with the Fed hewing to its 2% inflation target is shortsighted,” according to Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fixed-income.    Pimco’s Joachim Fels says Yellen may be willing to accept lower inflation as she continues with the Fed’s policy path because for one thing it would then give greater scope for policy action down the road, and it could enhance financial stability amid concerns of rates being too low. And he cites interesting theories about higher nominal rates leading to higher longer-term inflation.    The complacency in the bond market (10-year yields are heading for their narrowest monthly range since 2004!) and elsewhere seems especially brave considering how recently the market completely failed to read the Fed. Of course, there is another explanation, one offered by BofA earlier this week which suggested that the decoupling between the Fed's tightening intentions and the underlying economy has little to do with the data, and everything to do with the market bursting the stock market bubble. As BofA's chief strategist David Woo said, "Can it be the case that its hawkishness was prompted by something other than its reading of the economy? For example, is it possible that the Fed has become concerned about the recent surge in the equity market, especially tech stocks that has been feeding off low interest rates and low volatility?" If so, a "market shock" is indeed inevitable, the question is when.   Then again, the market may be doubly-right: if Yellen does indeed "shock" the market, sending yields surging and risk assets tumbling, then a recession is virtually assured. As such, bond bulls are predicting not only its own near-term demise, but their long-term vindication after the shake out that will follow the "post shock" period.

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21 июня, 21:24

The Reverse Tepper Moment Looms

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, Think back to September of 2010. At the time, most pundits were bearish US equities. There was a ton of doubt about the efficacy of quantitative easing. Many investors were chasing gold, believing the Fed was pushing on a string and another 2008 style collapse was imminent. Yet one hedge fund manager was brave enough to get on TV, and take the other side. I still remember watching David Tepper make the convincing case that stocks were a screaming buy. “Either the economy is going to get better by itself in the next three months…What assets are going to do well? Stocks are going to do well, bonds won’t do so well, gold won’t do as well. Or the economy is not going to pick up in the next three months and the Fed is going to come in with QE. Then what’s going to do well? Everything, in the near term though not bonds…   So let’s see what I got—I got two different situations: One, the economy gets better by itself, stocks are better, bonds are worse, gold is probably worse. The other situation is the fed comes in with money.” The Tepper bottom was formed, and if David was not already in the hedge fund hall of fame, this gutsy call immortalized his spot. The trade was genius because Tepper realized the Fed would ensure a positive outcome for equities regardless of which path the economy took. Fast forward to today. Instead of the Fed bankrolling you with promises of QE, they are tightening monetary policy, and making plans to wind down their balance sheet. And it has not gone unnoticed. Over the past week, plenty of smart guys have warned that the Fed no longer has your back. Whether it is Epsilon Theory’s Ben Hunt or former PIMCO head Mohamed El-Erian, the idea that liquidity is being withdrawn from the financial system, and therefore switching to an underweight risk position is starting to gain traction. Although many of these strategists are preaching caution, at least they have the humility to understand that calling tops is a difficult endeavor. On the other hand, I find it amusing how the recent rise has emboldened a new breed of bulls that know for sure that stocks will continue rising. Or equally funny are those who are 100% convinced we are about to crash. I don’t have a clue how they can be so confident of anything in this environment. We have two of the largest Central Banks in the world (ECB & BoJ) desperately shoveling money into the financial system, with the largest (the Federal Reserve), valiantly trying to mop it up with tighter monetary policies. I understand both sides of the argument, but I am not nearly smart enough to know for sure which way we are headed. If someone tells you they know for certain, you should probably ignore them. The truth of the matter is that this is uncharted territory and how the global financial system will react to these different forces is unknown. But as I sat thinking about the situation, it occurred to me that we might be in the midst of an anti-Tepper moment. The Federal Reserve is concerned about the excessively easy financial conditions. They have already overseen two large bubbles over the past couple of decades, and they don’t want another on their resume. This explains why even in the absence of inflation, they continue to tighten monetary policy. They have adopted a third mandate - financial conditions. What do I mean about an anti-Tepper moment? When Tepper called the bottom, he did so because he believed stocks would rise because either; the economy would improve, or the Fed would come in with QE. Either way would be positive for stocks. In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks). The market is surprised at how the Federal Reserve has not wavered in the face of the recent poor inflation releases. Many market participants believe the Fed will take their foot off the brake. Well, to remove any doubt, a couple of days ago, the Fed’s third most influential member, NY President Bill Dudley made it clear that the Fed’s message from the FOMC meeting would not change. From Bloomberg: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley aligned himself with Chair Janet Yellen in declaring his expectation that a tight labor market will eventually trigger a rebound in inflation data that has been unexpectedly weak in recent months.   “We’re pretty close to what we think is full employment,” Dudley said Monday in Plattsburgh, New York. “Inflation is a little bit lower than what we would like, but we think if the labor market continues to tighten, wages will gradually pick up, and with that, we’ll see inflation get back to 2 percent.”   Yields on U.S. Treasuries rose and the dollar advanced after Dudley’s comments.   Fed officials last week raised their benchmark interest rate for the third time in six months and pushed ahead on plans to begin reducing the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year – a move that may also tighten policy, in the face of growing concerns over stalled inflation. In remarks that Dudley largely echoed, Yellen said at the time she expected the U.S. economy would continue to expand at a moderate pace for “the next few years.”   Dudley, viewed as an influential voice on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, also sounded a positive note on the U.S. economy overall, while saying the central bank wanted to tighten monetary policy “very judiciously” to avoid derailing the expansion that began in mid-2009.   In a Bloomberg survey of economists earlier this month, respondents put a 60 percent probability, based on the median estimate, on the expansion running through at least July 2019 and thereby reaching 121 months, topping the 10 years of gains during the 1990s.   “I’m actually very confident that even though the expansion is relatively long in the tooth, we still have quite a long way to go,” Dudley said Monday. “This is actually a pretty good place to be.”   The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, after stripping out food and energy components, slowed to 1.5 percent in the 12 months through April, well short of the central bank’s 2 percent target. That has puzzled economists because it comes as unemployment has consistently declined and stood at a 16-year low of 4.3 percent in May.   “If we were not to withdraw accommodation, the risk would be that the economy would crash to a very, very low unemployment rate, and generate inflation,” Dudley said.“Then the risk would be that we would have to slam on the brakes and the next stop would be a recession.” The Federal Reserve is not concerned about their inability to meet their inflation mandate over the short run. Instead, they are focused on the possibility of the Phillips Curve causing a spike in inflation they can’t control, but even more importantly, they are petrified about easy financial conditions causing another bubble. As long as employment does not collapse, then regardless of short run inflation readings, the Federal Reserve will continue to tighten 25 basis points every other meeting. I realize this is not a consensus call. In fact, the market has already abandoned this trajectory. Not only that, but the Federal Reserve will implement their plan to gradually wind down their balance sheet at the first available opportunity. They have prepared the market, and there is no sense waiting. Yet the bond market does not agree. The market is looking at recent economic performance and pricing out this possibility. And no wonder. Look at the CitiBank economic surprise index which measures the deviation from consensus for economic releases. The US economy has rolled over hard. And in doing so, the bond market has eased off their expectations of the Federal Reserve tightening The market had previously been pricing in almost a 60% chance of a December Fed Funds hike, but with the recent economic weakness, that has fallen to less than 30%. The bond market is calling the Fed’s bluff. They are in essence saying, “we don’t think you will tighten in the face of a slowing economy.” And here is where I think the market’s miscalculation lies. I agree that in the past the Federal Reserve did in fact blink and failed to tighen. Yet the difference was that during those periods, the economy was rolling over, but financial conditions were worsening at the same time. The stock market was selling off and credit spreads blowing out. That is the exact opposite of today! The way I see it, going forward either one of these two things will happen. The stock market will realize the economy is weak, and risk assets will sell off. Or, the economy will bounce, and the Fed will shock the market by continuing to tighten. All the Fed would need to do is follow through on their guidance and the front end of the bond market would get destroyed. They wouldn’t even need to get more hawkish. Simply not blinking will cause a tremendous amount of pain. Don’t mistake my forecast on a belief the Federal Reserve is suddenly becoming responsible. I fully expect them to ease once financial conditions back up. There is simply too much debt, and there would be too much pain associated with a more traditional level of interest rates. Yet over the short run, the Fed will keep raising until they cause the tightening of financial conditions. I respect the fact that the Federal Reserve does not control the private creation of money. There is a chance the Fed might not be able control a melt up, and that they will find themselves behind the curve. After all, that scenario is what I have been predicting for some time now. That is why I am buying at-the-money puts instead of just shorting outright. I am taking advantage of the fact that vol is so cheap. But where I differ from some of my more bearish brethren, is that I am going to short out of the money puts against my long put position. If we get a decline of 10%, I will no longer be bearish. At that point, the Fed will once again be taking their foot off the brake, and eventually even pushing down on the accelerator. So I will forsake the payoff from a big crash, and play for the smaller correction only. On the other side of the ledger, I am buying bond puts. Although everyone is bearish on the economy, I look at the chart of the Citibank Economic Surprise Index that is being passed around and wonder, who doesn’t realize the economy has underperformed? If I had to guess, I would err on forecasting that this index surprises to the upside in the coming months, not the other way round. The flattening of the yield curve makes this part of the trade tricky, and I am still deciding the best way to play it. But I think you should be short fixed income, not long. And once again, the dirt cheap vol makes buying options a much better play than outright shorts. Seven years ago when Tepper made his bold call, the Fed was trying their best to get stocks higher. At that point, no one believed, and it took guts to ride along in the Fed’s wagon. Today, the Fed is trying to keep financial conditions from becoming too easy, and once again no one believes. As Marty Zweig famously said, “don’t fight the Fed.” Sometimes it’s that simple.

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16 июня, 13:41

Quiet Start To Quad Witching: Stocks Rebound Around The Globe, BOJ Hits Yen

Today is quad-witching opex Friday, and according to JPM, some $1.3 trillion in S&P future will expire. Traditionally quad days are associated with a rise in volatility and a surge in volumes although in light of recent vol trends and overnight markets, today may be the most boring quad-witching in recent history: global stocks have again rebounded from yesterday's tech-driven losses as European shares rose 0.6%, wiping out the week's losses. USD/JPY climbed to two-week high, pushing the Nikkei higher as the BOJ maintained its stimulus and raised its assessment of private consumption without making a reference to tapering plans, all as expected. Asian stocks were mixed with the Shanghai Composite slightly softer despite the PBOC injecting a monster net 250 billion yuan with reverse repos to alleviate seasonal liquidity squeeze, and bringing the net weekly liquidity injection to CNY 410 billion, the highest in 5 months, while weakening the CNY fixing most since May. WTI crude is up fractionally near $44.66; Dalian iron ore rises one percent. Oil rose with metals. Treasuries held losses as traders focused on Yellen hawkish tone. The MSCI All Country World Index was up 0.2%, and after the latest global rebound, the value of global stocks is almost equal to that of the world's GDP, the highest such ratio since th great financial crisis, BBG reported. The key overnight event was the Bank of Japan which concluded the latest round of central bank meetings and maintained its extraordinary stimulus intact. Governor Kuroda calmed market speculation that an exit- plan communication was under way as he noted that the BOJ is only halfway to its inflation target. The yen dropped versus all of its Group-of-10 peers and was down by 0.3 percent to 111.3 per dollar as of 6:00 a.m. EDT.  The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.1175. The dollar stood little changed on a weekly basis as demand for its major peers waned given policy makers outside the U.S. showed no intention of altering their monetary stance European stocks advanced in a broad rally following two days of declines. Investors bought automakers after solid car sales data, while food and beverage makers led the advance which swept across all European industry group, with Nestle S.A. the biggest gainer after it revealed plans to shake up U.S. operations. U.K. retailer Tesco Plc registered its best quarter in seven years. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.6 percent as of 9:58 a.m. in London, paring its weekly decline to 0.6 percent. France’s CAC 40 rose 1 percent, the most among European peers, outperforming ahead of the weekend’s election. As Bloomberg notes, the latest positive change in mood comes at the end of a difficult week for stocks, with the benchmark European index recovering from the lowest close in almost two months. The markets appear to be shacking off bearish sentiment brought about by the Fed’s third interest rate increase since December. In France, newly elected Emmanuel Macron looks set for an historic majority in the National Assembly on Sunday. In rates, 10Y yields rose one basis point to 2.17% after rising four basis points in the previous session. The rate dropped on Wednesday to 2.13%, the lowest level since November. U.K. benchmark yield advanced three basis points after the BOE surprised the market with an unexpectedly hawkish vote split in yesterday's MPC decision. The German 2Y yield jumped to the highest level since November, although it still remains deeply in negative territory. West Texas crude futures rose 0.6 percent to $44.71 a barrel. Oil is down about 2.4 percent for the week. Gold rose 0.1 percent to $1,254.80. The metal is heading for a second weekly loss, falling 0.9 percent. Copper rose 0.1 percent to $5,669 per ton. Housing starts and Michigan consumer sentiment reports are scheduled to come out in the U.S. on Friday. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities enter the North American open in positive territory on quadruple witching day with tech names providing support A quiet morning in FX land, where we see meandering across the board. There was some early focus on the JPY pairs after the BoJ meeting stuck to the script, but through 111.00, the spot rate is starting to struggle Looking ahead, highlights include US housing starts, Uni. Of Michigan and building permits Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,437.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 388.26 MXAP down 0.05% to 153.94 MXAPJ unchanged at 501.51 Nikkei up 0.6% to 19,943.26 Topix up 0.5% to 1,596.04 Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 25,626.49 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,123.17 Sensex up 0.1% to 31,119.92 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,774.03 Kospi up 0.01% to 2,361.83 German 10Y yield rose 2.6 bps to 0.308% Euro up 0.2% to 1.1171 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.9% to $47.33/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 1.676% Spanish 10Y yield rose 4.8 bps to 1.464% Brent Futures up 0.9% to $47.33/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,255.04 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 97.37 Overnight Top News from Bloomberg Mueller said to probe Jared Kushner’s business dealings: Washington Post. Trump Faces Yet Another Senate Probe as Judiciary Panel Gears Up Trump Said to Announce Ban on Doing Business With Cuban Military Eurogroup reaches agreement to approve 8.5 billion euro payout to Greece EU, U.K. Brexit negotiations to start on Monday BOJ keeps policy unchanged; says consumption has ’increased resilience’ China’s holdings of U.S. Treasuries rise to six-month high in April Info Daily: China must monitor Fed’s balance sheet unwind plan Bain, INCJ Said to Offer $19 Billion for Toshiba Chip Unit BlackRock, Elliott and Pimco Want These Changes to Finance Rules GE’s $31 Billion Hangover: Immelt Leaves Behind Big Unfunded Tab U.K. Crohn’s Patients to Get Routine Access to J&J’s Stelara European Car Sales Rebounded in May as Economy Buoyed Buyers Global Fund Managers Voice Support for China’s MSCI Entry Booz Allen Falls 13.8% After Disclosing DOJ Accounting Probe Caterpillar Says Three VPs to Retire Amid Rejig U.S. Navy Can’t Find Why F-18 Pilots Running Short of Oxygen Optical Stocks Fall After Finisar’s 1Q Rev. View Misses Estimate N.Y. Subpoenas Fiat Over Possible Use of Diesel Cheating Devices Elliott Backs New BHP Chair Ken Mackenzie, Renews Change Call Microsoft Must Face Claims Porn Potters Were Traumatized Asian equity markets were mostly higher after the region shrugged off the negative Wall Street price action, where tech resumed its sell-off and participants pondered over the recent Fed rate hike as well as ongoing political woes. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) gained from the open, with exporter names in the latter underpinned by a weaker currency. Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) were mixed with the mainland underperforming as a firm liquidity operation by the PBoC, was overshadowed by credit bubble concerns. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with some marginal upside seen throughout the session, while today's BoJ policy decision also provided no fresh insights with the bank sticking to its policy framework. PBoC injected CNY 30bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 160bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 100bIn in 28-day reverse repos, for a net weekly injection of CNY 410bIn vs. Prey. net drain of CNY 10bIn last week BoJ kept rates unchanged at -0.1% as expected and maintained QQE with Yield Curve Control as expected via 7¬2 votes. BoJ maintained annual pace of JGB holdings at JPY 80tIn and to target 10yr yields at around 0%, while it also kept its economic assessment unchanged in which it stated that the economy turned to moderate expansion. Top Asian News BOJ Maintains Stimulus as Pressure Rises to Talk About Exit Vanke Said in Talks to Join Chinese Consortium in GLP Bidding CIMB Hires Credit Suisse’s Jefferi as Investment Bank Deputy CEO Indonesian Yields Approach Four-Year Low as Carry Draws Demand Buffett’s Favorite Chart Says ‘Have No Fear’ to India Stock Bull China’s Steel Mills Still Seen Struggling Even as Margins Climb European markets have seemingly shrugged off a hawkish, busy week, trading in the green throughout morning trade. Individual stock news has contributed to the bullish open, with positive pre-market figures for Tesco, alongside May's EU new car registrations bolstering the automobile names. The Tech and Energy sectors outperform, with the former supported by the late buying seen in the US tech names yesterday and the latter has been supported by some oil buying from the USD 44/bbl level. Materials trade in the red following continued selling as a result of yesterday's reports stating that South African Miners will need to be 30% back owned. Fixed income markets have grinded lower as a result of the risk on sentiment, with some European unification evident, as Greece is said to have reached a bailout deal with creditors with the full disbursement expected at the beginning of July. The biggest mover in the bond markets has been Greek paper, with the 2y trading at its lowest yield level since October 15, further the Greece/Germany lOy spread heading for 532bps then 519bps again Top European News Greece Wins 8.5 Billion Euro Payout as Debt Clarity Deferred Tesco Targets Cheaper, Healthier Food to Get Back in the Game Brexit Talks To Be Pragmatic, Show Sincere Cooperation: Hammond EU May Tweak Resolution Rule Based on Banco Popular: Dombrovskis In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent, after rising 0.5 percent on Thursday to snap three days of losses. The yen fell 0.4 percent to 111.34 per dollar, after dropping 1.2 percent in the previous session, the most since January.  The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.1175. A quiet morning in FX land, where we see meandering across the board. There was some early focus on the JPY pairs after the BoJ meeting stuck to the script, but through 111.00, the spot rate is starting to struggle a little with sellers coming in ahead of pre 112.00 offers. EUR/USD has redressed some of the losses seen from the aftermath of the FOMC meeting this week, with 'over-positioning' taking its toll with 1.1300 a near term line in the sand. Demand into the lower half of the 1.1100's has supported for now, with a tentative move on 1.1200 in the making. EUR/GBP is trying to base out also, but is struggling against buyers in Cable who take their lead of the hawkish reflections from the BoE vote split yesterday. 1.2800 looks to be well protected in the meantime, but expect pre 0.8800 to also garner some interest as range trading looks to be the order of the day for the most part. In commodities, headlines have been thin on the ground this week, with traders taking their cue from the longer-term backdrop(s). This has been headlined by the ongoing drift lower in Oil prices, with recoveries mute as this broad-based selling interest is deterring bargain hunters for now. This looks to be the only major catalyst for a sustained move higher, but with WTI staying below USD45, a move towards USD40 is now widely anticipated. Metals prices have been mixed, but looking at Copper, we see upside levels also contained, with the foray through USD2.60 short lived. On the day, Zinc is outperforming and showing a 1.0%+ gain on the day. Gold prices look to have further to go on the downside if you believe the USD is set to recoup further ground. Technically, USD1225-30 is the next major support point to watch for. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll receive the May housing starts and building permits data as well as the May labour market conditions index, before ending the week with the flash June University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Kaplan this evening while EU finance ministers are again due to meet in Luxembourg to discuss economic policy coordination and surveillance. It’s worth noting that on Sunday France will complete the election of its new National Assembly with a second round of voting where Macron is expected to achieve a comfortable legislative majority. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.22m, prior 1.17m; MoM, est. 4.1%, prior -2.6% 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.23m; MoM, est. 1.71%, prior -2.5% 10am: Labor Market Conditions Index Change, est. 3, prior 3.5 10am: U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 87.6, prior 87.7; 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.4% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It was a twin move lower for markets yesterday as both bonds and equities sold off. With a more hawkish than expected Fed still very much the focus 10y Treasury yields closed last night up nearly 4bps at 2.165% after touching a low of 2.101% on Wednesday morning immediately following the soft inflation data. Yields are now back to within 4bps of where they were prior to that inflation data. Across the curve, after testing the recent lows in spread, the 2y10y spread was also 2bps higher yesterday at 81bps. It was a similar story in Europe with Bunds (+5.6bps) and OATs (+4.5bps) also making near complete u-turns with European supply congestion also playing a part. Meanwhile it was a weak day for global equities but the S&P 500 (4th down day in 5) pared bigger losses near the open to only close -0.22%. The underperforming Nasdaq (-0.47%) did the same and has now retraced -2.47% in the last week. The Stoxx 600 (-0.39%) and DAX (-0.89%) also finished in the red not helped by a fairly soft day for commodities. WTI Oil (-0.60%) extended declines further below $45/bbl while a softer day for Gold (-0.55%), Copper (-0.67%) and Aluminium (-0.56%) all put pressure on commodity producers. However the big story yesterday in markets was the BoE meeting. A slightly more hawkish than expected tone saw Gilt yields rise sharply with the 10y rising 10.6bps to 1.029% and more or less completely reversing Wednesday’s rally. Sterling also rallied as much as +0.81% from its lows although it finished the day little changed. As expected, the MPC voted in favour of holding current policy steady however by a more marginal 5-3 split. That meant that 2 members joined Kristin Forbes in voting for a hike – Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty. DB’s Mark Wall had been of the view going into the meeting that the mix of data – including the aggravated household real income squeeze via the continuation of accelerating CPI inflation and slowing wage inflation – could see the BoE adopt less hawkish rhetoric, however the opposite happened. Instead the BoE was more hawkish than expected and the risks of a rate hike have increased. That said Mark does not think that this surprisingly hawkish outcome means a rate hike is more likely than not. Indeed he notes that how this 5-3 split resolves itself will depend on three things. First, economic momentum. Any sense of disappointment should entrench the majority. Second, the inflation overshoot. More relevant here is wages than sterling and pass-through. The government’s response to (public sector) pay could be particularly important for how this element of the BoE dilemma resolves. The third point is whether or not the replacements for Forbes and Hogg are hawks. Since this was Forbes’ last meeting the vote being carried forward is a less hawkish 5-2. This will make any upcoming BoE speeches important to keep an eye on. Prior to the BoE we also got May retail sales data in the UK yesterday. Like Wednesday’s wages data the numbers were disappointing with sales including fuel falling more than expected (-1.2% mom vs. -0.8% expected) resulting in the annual rate dropping to just +0.9% yoy from +4.2%. There was similarly disappointing data for sales excluding fuel. Staying with the UK for a second, it’s worth highlighting that yesterday we got confirmation that Brexit talks will begin on Monday with David Davis and Michel Barnier due to open formal negotiations in Brussels. On top of that the UK government confirmed yesterday  that it will press ahead with the State Opening of Parliament next Wednesday. Sky News was reporting yesterday that a deal between the Conservatives and DUP was “95% done”. Before we go any further we’ve got the final big central bank meeting of the week to recap this morning with the BoJ having just wrapped up. As expected the BoJ kept monetary policy on hold while also sticking to its pledge to keep 10y JGB yields around zero. The ¥80tn target on JGB purchases was also maintained. The Bank also used its policy statement to reiterate that Japan’s economy “has been turning toward a moderate expansion”. The Bank was also upbeat on consumption but there was no mention of any exit guidance, which will likely be the focus of Kuroda’s press conference due to start now. The Nikkei and Topix are +0.53% and +0.52% respectively although those gains came prior to the meeting outcome and supported by a weaker Yen (-0.22%) while JGB yields are little moved (10y around 0.048%). Bourses elsewhere in Asia are mixed with the Hang Seng (+0.29%) and ASX (+0.33%) up but the Shanghai Comp (-0.17%) and Kospi (-0.05%) weaker. Moving on. Away from the BoE the other notable update in Europe yesterday was the news that Greece and its creditors have reached a deal on the next stages of its bailout following a finance ministers meeting in Luxembourg last night. A Eurogroup statement after the meeting stated that the deal “paves the way for a successful completion of the second review of the ECM programme” and that a disbursement of €8.5bn is expected to be approved, helping to remove some of the concerns around a heavy debt repayment schedule next month. The deal is expected to include further deferral of EFSF interest and amortization by up to 15 years. The key sticking point over debt relief remains however and while the IMF has agreed to join in principle, a final decision on debt relief is not expected until next year. The IMF’s Lagarde confirmed last night that the deal “allows us to lock in the gains made by Greece in its reforms and it allows for more time for negotiations to be concluded on the required debt relief”. Away from this, there was a fair bit of data released in the US yesterday and which in summary was mostly a mixed bag. Most of it was focused on the factory sector. Notable was the softer than expected industrial production reading for May (0.0% mom vs. +0.2% expected) following a +1.1% reading in April (revised up one-tenth). Capacity utilization also slipped one-tenth to 76.6% while manufacturing production was revealed as falling -0.4% mom (vs. +0.1% expected). June data was a bit more optimistic however. The empire manufacturing reading rose 20.8pts to 19.8 and well ahead of expectations (5.0 expected) – it was also the best reading since September 2014. Meanwhile the Philly Fed manufacturing index slipped 11.2pts but still came in at an elevated and better than expected 27.6 (vs. 24.9 expected). Away from this the NAHB housing market index for June declined 2pts to 67. Initial jobless claims fell a further 8k last week to 237k while finally the import price index reading for May fell -0.3% mom reflecting some of the weakness in energy prices. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus will be on the final May CPI readings for the Euro area. Q1 wages data in France will also be released. This afternoon in the US we’ll receive the May housing starts and building permits data as well as the May labour market conditions index, before ending the week with the flash June University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Kaplan this evening while EU finance ministers are again due to meet in Luxembourg to discuss economic policy coordination and surveillance. Before we wrap up it’s worth noting that on Sunday France will complete the election of its new National Assembly with a second round of voting where Macron is expected to achieve a comfortable legislative majority. We’ll have a full wrap-up of that in Monday’s EMR.

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15 июня, 17:04

Stock/Bond ratio creating a historic peak again?

When it come to performance so far this year, would one be better off owning the S&P 500 or Long-Term Zero coupon bonds? Below compares the S&P 500 to Pimco’s Zero Coupon Bond ETF (ZROZ). So far this year, both have done well and pretty much have the same returns! CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio (SPX/ZROZ), using the two assets from above. The ratio in our humble opinion, could be creating an important pattern, that could impact stocks and bonds. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The ratio put in a high back in 2014 and when it broke support at (1), bonds out performed stocks by a large percentage for the next year. Moving forward to the past few months, the ratio could be creating a topping pattern (head & shoulders top) at the same highs at it hit in 2014, at line (2). A dual support test is in play at (3) above, that needs to hold to send a bullish message to the ratio and stocks. If support would give way at (3), it could be suggesting that bonds could out perform stocks for a period of time. The Power of the Pattern is of the opinion that what happens at (3), could send an important message about portfolio construction going forward.     Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM Blog:  KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM/BLOG   Questions:[email protected] call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381                                          

15 июня, 17:01

Long-Term Treasury ETFs in Play Post Fed Decision

The behavior of the yield curve justifies the bullish trend in long-term Treasuries.

14 июня, 09:46

BofA: крупные инвесторы сторонятся американских бирж

Москва, 14 июня - "Вести.Экономика". Подавляющее число управляющих фондами считают, что фондовый рынок США перегрет, и активно выводят свои средства из рисковых активов. Об этом свидетельствуют результаты опроса управляющих, проведенного сотрудниками Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

14 июня, 09:39

BofA: крупные инвесторы сторонятся американских бирж

Москва, 14 июня - "Вести.Экономика". Подавляющее число управляющих фондами считают, что фондовый рынок США перегрет, и активно выводят свои средства из рисковых активов. Об этом свидетельствуют результаты опроса управляющих, проведенного сотрудниками Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

14 июня, 00:56

BofA: крупные инвесторы сторонятся американских бирж

Подавляющее число управляющих фондами считают, что фондовый рынок США перегрет, и активно выводят свои средства из рисковых активов. Об этом свидетельствуют результаты опроса управляющих, проведенного сотрудниками Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

14 июня, 00:56

BofA: крупные инвесторы сторонятся американских бирж

Подавляющее число управляющих фондами считают, что фондовый рынок США перегрет, и активно выводят свои средства из рисковых активов. Об этом свидетельствуют результаты опроса управляющих, проведенного сотрудниками Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Выбор редакции
09 июня, 23:49

Pimco Income Fund attracts $2.8 billion of inflows in May: Morningstar data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Pimco Income Fund, overseen by Pimco group chief investment officer Dan Ivascyn, attracted $2.8 billion of inflows during the month of May, bringing assets under management...

09 июня, 00:01

UK Election Result: 'Hung Parliament', Farage Warns "Brexit Is In Trouble"

Live Feed: *  *  * In a somewhat shocking shift, Jeremy Corbyn is now the favorite at the bookies to become the next Prime Minister (despite the fact that Tories will likely remain the majority party - unless this is an absolute disaster) Is this a premature call? Or is the market coming around to the idea that Theresa May and the Conservatives have got this horribly wrong? BBC and ITV Forecast a hung parliament It suggests the Conservatives will do slightly better than the exit poll predicted - but will still be just short of an overall majority. Conservatives: 322 (4 short of majority, down 9 from 2015) Labour: 261 (up 19 from 2015) SNP: 32 (down 24 from 2015) Lib Dem: 13 (up 5 from 2015) UKIP: 0 (down 1 from 2015) The election has already seen some big names lose... Former Lib Dem Leader and former deputy PM Nick Clegg lost his Sheffield Hallam seat to Labour's Jared O'Mara Treasury minister Jane Ellison lost her Battersea seat to Labour's Marsha De Cordova, on a 10% swing from the Tories to Labour SNP leader in Westminster, Angus Robertson lost his seat to the Conservatives; Douglas Ross, who won 48% of the vote UKIP's Leader Paul Nuttal came 3rd in his district ITV’s political editor Robert Peston has summed up some important conclusions. The below is all from his Twitter account: 1) the left's grip on Labour now unshakeable, and Blairism totally dead (as I mentioned on Wednesday)   2) we are witnessing the starkest generational split at ballot box for years, with young backing Labour and old the Tories   3) @theresa_may very seriously wounded - and her rivals, such as @BorisJohnson, will be weeping crocodile tears   4) we are back to traditional right-versus-politics of a sort we haven't seen for more than 25 years   5) we are entering a period of chronic political instability, and another general election in the autumn looks almost inevitable   6) sterling and stock market will be under serious downward pressure in the morning   (Some suggest that a hung parliament could actually prove sterling-supportive as it increases the chances of a softer Brexit.)   7) goodness only knows what this means either for the timetable for Brexit or the nature of Brexit   8) what I worry about, more than anything else, is that our nation will be revealed as more divided that at any time since the 1980s Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage said Brexit "is in some trouble" if Jeremy Corbyn forms a coalition and he will "have absolutely no choice" but to come back into British politics *  *  * The Exit Polls UK exit poll projects COnservatives are the largest party but fall short of majority - leaving a hung parliament. Conservative 314 - 12 seats short of majority Labour 266 SNP 34 Lib Dem 14 Plaid 3 Green 1 UKIP 0 Other 18 NOTE: Historically these forecasts have been very accurate (within 15 seats for the winning party) but this means that if the exit poll projections are tight – i.e. within a 20 seat majority for the Tories - the margin of error means we may not know by 10pm which of the potential outcomes across small Conservative majority, Conservative minority or Labour coalition are the most likely. A reminder of 2015's UK election results Con 36.9% (331) Lab 30.4% (232) UKIP 12.7% (1) LD 7.9% (8) SNP 4.7% (56) GP 3.8% (1) Plaid 0.6% (3) BBC ANALYSIS SHOWS 76 UK PARLIAMENTARY SEATS ARE TOO CLOSE TO CALL Citi explains that "The gamble may not have paid off – this could be one of the most extraordinary electoral shocks in UK political history. The Conservatives appear to have actually lost seats." BUT... Remember that this is just an exit poll: In 2015, the exit poll at 20:00 BST announced that the Conservatives were to win 316… by the end of the night, they had actually won 331.   Remember that 316 is a 'working' majority... So Theresa May will have to hope for a couple of tight wins. Cable plunged... Almost erasing the gains post-snap-election... FORMER UK FINANCE MINISTER OSBORNE SAYS EXIT POLL IS "COMPLETELY CATASTROPHIC" FOR MAY AND HER CONSERVATIVE PARTY - ITV   Right now, markets are debating the following two scenario risks outlined by CitiFX Strategy: Hung Parliament – This is what exit polls suggest. CitiFX Strategy has said that a weaker Conservative showing than 2015 would be a big surprise given the polling gap and the expectation that UKIP voters would move to Conservative. As much would considerably complicate Brexit negotiations. This was the most GBP negative scenario in our view.   Small majority (Unchanged or just slightly larger) would be a big blow to Theresa May but may still not totally derail Brexit negotiations. It does however temper optimism that negotiations will go smoothly. Arguably this scenario makes bigger changes in the Cabinet less likely. GBP negative. We still have another exit poll and of course, the real vote. CitiFX Strategy says that if this proves correct, we do expect GBP to have more downside from here. At least another big figure below. *  *  * The Polls heading in showed Labor gaining on the Conservatives... And the bookies had Tories winning with between 358 and 363 seats (They need 326 to govern) The General Election result will be called in the early hours of the morning - could we find out the winner sometime between 10pmET and 11pmET? Here's when broadcasters, more or less, called the result in previous years: 2015 - Tory majority - 5.44am (0044ET) 2010 - Hung Parliament/Coalition - Six days later with the coalition agreement (12 May) 2005 - Labour win - 4.20am (2320ET) 2001 - Labour win - 1.31am (2031ET) - Blair made a speech saying they'd won so the BBC just went along with it. 1997 - Labour landslide - 1.38am (2038ET) 1987 - Tory win - 12:47am (1947ET) 1992 - Tory majority - 2.19am (2119ET) Scenarios Most Likely: PM May to win a larger majority (50+) which would supposedly allow for a much more stable Brexit process, through consolidating power while also making her less vulnerable to remainers within her own party, while the risk of a ‘no deal’ is lower and in turn lead to a cleaner Brexit. This can also suggest that it would be easier for PM May to agree on a transitional deal with the EU, mitigating some of the negative economic effects, as the next election will not take place until May 2022. Market Reaction: Initial spike in GBP, however given the rise in the currency since the announcement (1.2520 to 1.2900), this outcome has largely been priced in which could limit any move to the upside, consequently leading to a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact price action. Stocks to watch: Centrica and SSE likely to take a hit if the Conservatives impose a cap on standard variable tariffs. As it stands, GBP/USD o/n vol is to reside around 29/120 pips. Likely: The conservative party win a slim majority (5-10 more seats) or relatively unchanged from current. This could possibly lead to a less stable government, making Theresa May more vulnerable to Brexit hardliners within her own party, subsequently raising the possibility of a ‘no deal’. Market Reaction: Risks are tilted to the downside and as such, this outcome would likely see GBP met with selling pressure, alongside a fall in UK Gilt yields as some suggest this risks a more confrontational approach to Brexit negotiations, subsequently increasing uncertainty. Unlikely: Labour manage to pull a surprise and form a majority through a coalition with SNP and Lib Dem, this would undoubtedly complicate Brexit negotiations, with analysts at Danske Bank noting that this outcome could potentially lead to Brexit being cancelled altogether or sway to a softer Brexit. Market Reaction: In an immediate reaction, GBP will likely drop off alongside equity markets as a whirlwind of uncertainty lingers over UK political front. Analysts at PIMCO state focus will shift towards a looser fiscal policy and an untested government. Stocks to look out for would be UK utilities (Severn Trent, Centrica, SSE, National Utilities and United Utilities) which would likely drop off amid Labour’s plans of nationalisation. Looking far ahead, under the Act, the next general election is fixed to take place on 5 May 2022. This will change if two-thirds of MPs vote for an early election, or if the government loses a no confidence vote. It could also change if the Tories win and implement their manifesto pledge to renew the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. And finally, here are British cameramen desperately hoping to get a shot of the Russian agents who manipulated the British election... This is cringeworthy. pic.twitter.com/irpYI6k20n — Angry Salmond (@AngrySalmond) June 8, 2017

08 июня, 23:45

"I'm Very Concerned" Elliott's Singer Says Market Risks Higher Today Than 2008

Paul Singer just became the latest investing luminary to warn that the unprecedented monetary stimulus adopted by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks in Europe and Asia has elevated market risks to their highest levels since before the great financial crisis. “I am very concerned about where we are,” Singer said Wednesday at the Bloomberg Invest New York summit.   “What we have today is a global financial system that’s just about as leveraged - and in many cases more leveraged - than before 2008, and I don’t think the financial system is more sound.” “I don’t think that the fixes that have been put into place have actually created a sound financial system. I don’t believe that confidence is justified in policy makers and central bankers.”   "If and when confidence is lost, it could be lost in a very abrupt fashion causing conceivably a ruckus in bond markets, stock markets and in financial institutions.” Years of rock-bottom interest rates have reduced central banks’ ability to contend with any downturns, Singer said, while “suppressive” fiscal, regulatory and tax policies – along with an “incomplete” recovery - have exacerbated income inequality and led to the rise of populist and fringe political movements, he said. Singer, who says he’s been a conservative since the days of Barry Goldwater, voted for President Donald Trump in November after initially supporting Florida Senator Marco Rubio during the primary. Elliott Management Corp, the activist hedge fund founded by Singer in 1977, made headlines last year when the government of Argentina agreed to pay it and three other funds nearly $5 billion to settle claims on bonds that Argentina had defaulted on 15 years prior. For their part, central bankers have continued to promise more of the same: ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday that the central bank will continue to prop up the eurozone bond market for the foreseeable future.  The ECB, he said, stands ready to expand its program of asset purchases if things get rocky. The VIX, the US market’s preferred gauge of implied volatility, remains near record lows reached last month – a sign that investors are still dangerously complacent about the possibility of a selloff, even with US equities overvalued by every conceivable metric.  Other participants of the Bloomberg Invest summit were similarly gloomy. In addition to the dire warnings from Singer and PIMCO founder and current Janus Capital PM Bill Gross, TPG’s Jon Winkelried said he’s concerned that market investors are "apathetic to growing geopolitical and social unease." “The level of complacency about where markets are today is pretty scary,” the TPG co-CEO said Wednesday.   “People are just sort of assuming it’s OK, that it is what it is, and I have to say that I’m a little bit concerned about it.” Jonathan Beinner, the CIO of fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Mmanagement, said he’s "concerned" that people are underestimating the risk of market fluctuations at a time when companies are taking on more debt.

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08 июня, 15:21

PIMCO. Билл Гросс. Финансовые риски США и почему растет рынок.

Фи­нан­со­вые рынки США сейчас ис­пы­ты­ва­ют ве­ли­чай­шие риски после краха 2008 года, ин­ве­сто­ры при­ни­ма­ют все боль­ший риск за все боль­шую цену. Вместо того, чтобы по­ку­пать дешево и про­да­вать дорого, они сейчас по­ку­па­ют дорого и скре­щи­ва­ют пальцы на удачу. Ве­ду­щие цен­тро­бан­ки своей по­ли­ти­кой де­ше­вой лик­вид­но­сти ис­кус­ствен­но раз­ду­ли сто­и­мость ак­ти­вов — с ми­ни­маль­ным ростом ре­аль­ной эко­но­ми­ки и ущер­бом для бан­ков­ских сбе­ре­же­ний и стра­хо­вых ком­па­ний. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-07/bill-gross-says-market-risk-is-highest-since-before-2008-crisis Балансы ЕЦБ, ФРС и Японского ЦБ встретились в одной точке — в районе 4,5 трлн. долларов. Совокупный размер балансов 3 крупнейших ЦБ в динамике. ЕЦБ и Японский ЦБ эмитируют евро и йены по 70-80 млрд. (в долларах) в месяц. Дальше йены и евро меняются на доллары и улетают на фондовый рынок США. Потому что в США ставки выше. Фондовый рынок США пухнет и никто не может понять а чего он пухнет то. А всё не очень сложно. Пока ЕЦБ и Японский ЦБ печатают деньги американский фондовый рынок будет пухнуть. Рост на фондовом рынке это просто побочный эффект. Диаграмма как раз объясняет почему растет американский фондовый рынок. Последнее время говорят о том, что рынок ведет себя непонятно (должен падать, а растет). А чего здесь непонятного? Вон всё понятно как дважды-два.)))

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08 июня, 14:58

Бонды США - меньшее из зол для нынешнего и бывшего боссов Pimco

(Bloomberg) -- Нельзя сказать, что Дэн Айвасин, главный по облигациям в Pacific Investment Management Co., и его предшественник Билл Гросс часто сходятся во взглядах.Однако оба соглашаются в одном: в условиях глобальной погони за доходностью казначейские бумаги США, возможно, являются самым привлекательным активом среди...

25 марта 2016, 11:36

Scofield: Атаки на Х. Клинтон

06.03.2016 г. на ресурсе China Matters появилась публикация, очень точно нацеленная на нанесение репутационного ущерба Х.Клинтон в контексте предвыборной кампании в США Название статьи: «Ливия: хуже, чем Ирак. Прости, Хиллари». Ливийское фиаско может оказаться камнем преткновения в президентских притязаниях Хиллари Клинтон.

10 ноября 2015, 20:59

Бывший банкир Goldman Sachs и PIMCO вошел в ФРС США

Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.

20 октября 2015, 23:32

PIMCO подала иск о мошенничестве к Petrobras

Американская финансовая компания PIMCO подала иск о мошенничестве к бразильскому нефтегазовому концерну Petrobras.

29 апреля 2015, 22:18

Бернанке станет консультировать PIMCO

Бывший глава Федеральной резервной системы США занял пост старшего советника крупнейшего облигационного фонда Pacific Investment Management Co. - PIMCO Total Return.

03 октября 2014, 09:23

Программа "Финансовая стратегия" от 3 октября 2014 года

Вкладчики забирают свои деньги из американского фонда PIMCO . он потерял больше 20 миллиардов долларов. Так инвесторы реагируют на уход из компании одного из основателей Билла Гросса. А вот акции фонда Janus Capital, в который легендарный инвестор устроился на работу, стали пользоваться повышенным спросом. Как на этом заработать?

05 марта 2014, 12:30

Зачем PIMCO понадобились "токсичные" активы?

Pacific Investment Management Co. привлек средства клиентов, для того чтобы вложиться в "токсичные" активы, пишут западные СМИ со ссылкой на свои источники. Сейчас самое время для покупки "токсичных" активовТаким образом, Билл Гросс, глава PIMCO, одной из крупнейших в мире компаний по управлению активами, наконец сдался. Он стал, наверно, последним управляющим, который признал, что при доходности десятилетних трежерис в 2,5% покупать нужно акции, а не облигации. Многие коллеги по цеху уже давно сместили свои аппетиты в пользу более высокодоходных активов. Об этом свидетельствуют и последние данные по доходности, согласно которым самый большой фонд PIMCO уступает 70% своих конкурентов. Мало того, что Гросс изменил самому себе, так еще и активы для инвестиций, если верить источникам, выбраны самые что ни на есть "токсичные". Но обо всем по порядку. Речь идет о фонде Bravo II, в который было привлечено ни много ни мало $5,5 млрд. На данный момент он уже закрыт для новых клиентов. Так вот, эти деньги планируется вложить в банковский сектор США и Европы, но это будут не акции или облигации, это будут на самом деле "токсичные" активы, то есть те, от которых банкам в срочном порядке нужно избавиться. Иными словами, списать их со своих балансов. Commerzbank уже успел продать часть просроченных кредитовПо сути, это просроченные кредиты, выданные банками как на покупку жилья, так и на другие цели. Такого "добра" у европейских кредиторов, что называется, выше крыши. Недаром МВФ еще в 2012 г. обязал банкиров избавиться от этих "плохих" кредитов до 2014 г. По подсчетам валютного фонда, тогда объем "мусора" составлял порядка $4,5 млрд. Если взглянуть на календарь, то становится ясно - банки уже выбиваются из графика. Конечно, глупо полагать, что они еще не притрагивались к расчистке балансов, но найти достаточно покупателей на эти активы задача не из легких. Поскольку время на исходе, диктовать цену теперь будут исключительно покупатели. Банки же в свою очередь будут молить о покупке. И все же, это же "токсичный" долг, то есть кредиты, просроченные уже по нескольку раз. Как такой актив может стать хорошей инвестицией? Вероятно, может. Расчет делается на то, что цена, уплаченная за такие активы, ничтожно мала относительно ее номинала, а на фоне восстановления экономики есть шанс, что те безработные, которые и являются должниками, наконец найдут себе новое место на рынке труда и тогда "мертвый" кредит оживет. Платежи по нему быстро сделают такой долг прибыльным для держателя. Среди хедж-фондов есть даже специальная классификация для тех, кто занимается подобными инвестициями. Можно вспомнить, например, как фонд Марка Мобиуса вложился в бонды Греции практически на минимальных отметках. Заработок в итоге превысил 200%. Билл Гросс открывает новые идеиС поиском продавцов у PIMCO проблем возникнуть не должно. Предложение достаточно велико. Так, по информации The Wall Street Journal, Commerzbank в феврале продал свой портфель ипотечных кредитов, выданных в Испании за 710 млн евро. Британский RBS продал портфель кредитов под постройку коммерческой недвижимости хедж-фонду Varde Partners. А частная инвестиционная компания KKR из США совсем недавно завершила переговоры о покупки "токсических" активов у итальянских банков Intesa Sanpaolo и UniCredit. Остается вопрос, зачем PIMCO занимается несвойственной для себя работой? Ответ лежит на поверхности: из-за низкой доходности уже несколько месяцев подряд из фондов компании наблюдается отток средств. Для того чтобы наверстать упущенное, Билл Гросс и решился на этот поступок.