12 Days to go! Our nearly politics-free morning train reads: • Black Monday Revisited: Lessons From 29 Years of Market History (PIMCO) • McCulley: The deficit is too small, not too big (The Hill) • Here’s who bankrolls the fight against marijuana legalization (Vice) • Republicans Rode Waves of Populism Until They Crashed the Party (Wall… Read More The post 10 Thursday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Schlumberger, Halliburton, SM Energy, Petrobras and Royal Dutch Shell
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Schlumberger, Halliburton, SM Energy, Petrobras and Royal Dutch Shell
Еще несколько лет назад многие эксперты призывали к жесткой бюджетной экономии, а инвесторы опасались, что избыточные расходы ударят по рынку гособлигаций. В 2011 г. инвестор Билл Гросс, управлявший тогда в Pimco крупнейшим фондом облигаций в мире, продавал казначейские облигации США и говорил, что британские бонды покоятся «на кровати из нитроглицерина».
Еще несколько лет назад многие эксперты призывали к жесткой бюджетной экономии, а инвесторы опасались, что избыточные расходы ударят по рынку гособлигаций. В 2011 г. инвестор Билл Гросс, управлявший тогда в Pimco крупнейшим фондом облигаций в мире, продавал казначейские облигации США и говорил, что британские бонды покоятся «на кровати из нитроглицерина».
Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting and weighed earnings reports from companies including Microsoft, which soared to all time highs after beating non-GAAP estimates, and Daimler. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010 after the PBOC cut the fixing by most since August; commodities declined on speculation U.S. monetary policy will diverge from stimulus measures in Europe and Asia. Top corporate stories include BAT’s offer to buy the remaining stake in Reynolds American for $47 billion and speculation AT&T is discussing a takeover of Time Warner; NBC is doubling in bet in BuzzFeed by investing another $200 million. S&P 500 Index futures signaled U.S. equities will pare this week’s advance and European stocks fluctuated while Japanese shares fell after the nation was struck by an earthquake. A gauge of commodities fell for a second day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for a third weekly gain after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday that the authority’s bond-buying program will likely be tapered before it is halted, a hint that there will be an extension beyond the scheduled end-date of March 2017. Despite today's muted tone, global stocks were set for their first weekly gain in four weeks. "Weaning markets off easy monetary policy will be a delicate exercise for the ECB, and we think the bank is unlikely to remove its stimulus until inflation is solidly on track to 2 percent," Andrew Bosomworth, managing director and portfolio manager at PIMCO, said in a note. "We thus view tapering as a topic for 2017 and beyond." The euro fell to its lowest since March after Draghi’s guarded appearance on Thursday, and was trading just under $1.09 on Friday morning. Speaking after the Governing Council left its stimulus strategy unchanged, Draghi said that “sometimes it’s important to say what we did not discuss.” The topics deemed out of bounds included future rate cuts, extending bond-buying and tapering the program -- or even whether those topics will be on the December agenda. Prospects for more stimulus contrast with Federal Reserve policy as officials weigh the case for its first interest-rate hike since 2015. Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo and San Francisco Fed President John Williams are scheduled to speak today. “Anybody who had positioned for the risk that Draghi would signal a hard taper took their chips off that particular table,” said Ned Rumpeltin, the head of European currency strategy at Toronto Dominion Bank in London. “This also put emphasis back on the dollar. And the calendar over the next few weeks look dollar friendly.” More troubling than the move in the Euro was the latest plunge in the yuan, whose lower fixing to 6.7558, down 5.8% Y/Y, was the biggest daily move since August, pushing the Chinese currency beyond Bloomberg's year-end forecast of 6.75, CNH hit 6.7666- close to weakest since trading began in 2010. S&P 500 Index futures were down 0.3%. General Electric Co. and McDonald’s Corp. are among American companies reporting results on Friday. Microsoft Corp. surged as much as 6.2% in after-hours trading after first-quarter sales and earnings topped analysts’ estimates. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed near a two-week high. Daimler AG fell 2 percent after the automaker reported a 10 percent increase in third-quarter earnings and SAP SE was up 2 percent following the announcement of sales that topped estimates. Ericsson AB slid 2.2 percent following its first loss in almost four years. British American Tobacco Plc paced gains among retailers, rising 2.7 percent after offering to buy the stake it doesn’t already own in Reynolds American Inc. for $47 billion. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.4 percent and the yen strengthened after a magnitude-6.6 earthquake struck western Japan. The nation’s earnings season ramps up next week, with more than 350 members of the equity gauge set to report results. The yield on benchmark U.S. Treasuries due in a decade fell one basis point to 1.74 percent. It touched a four-month high of 1.81 percent this week as higher oil prices spurred speculation inflation will gather pace. That may boost the case for the Fed to raise rates. China’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points to a record 2.64 percent. Demand for sovereign debt firmed this week as data showed industrial output missed estimates last month and a weakening yuan spurred concern about capital outflows. “It’s still a matter of debate whether economic fundamentals have turned better,” said Luo Yunfeng, a fixed-income analyst at Essence Securities Co. in Beijing. “It’s possible that, some time next year, the economy might show some sort of weakness again.” * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk A rather uninspiring session so far in Europe with equities trading relatively flat as earnings continues to guide price action USD bull theme is largely in play, though EUFt/USD losses through 1.0900 have been slow and steady Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI and Retail Sales, ECB's Weidmann (Hawk) and Fed's Tarullo (Voter, Dove) Speaks Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2130 Stoxx 600 up less than 0.1% to 345 FTSE 100 up less than 0.1% to 7033 DAX up less than 0.1% to 10710 German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.01% Italian 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.36% Spanish 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.11% S&P GSCI Index up less than 0.1% to 374.1 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.3% to 140 Nikkei 225 down 0.3% to 17185 Hang Seng closed Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3091 S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5430 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 1.75% Dollar Index up 0.25% to 98.56 WTI Crude futures up less than 0.1% to $50.67 Brent Futures up 0.3% to $51.51 Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,265 Silver spot down 0.3% to $17.49 TOP NEWS: BAT Offers to Buy Rest of Reynolds American for $47 Billion: Deal would create world’s largest publicly traded tobacco co. AT&T Said to Discuss Takeover Idea in Time Warner Meetings: Executives said to have met in recent weeks for informal talks Shell Sells $1 Billion of Western Canada Assets to Tourmaline: Oil major follows Conoco, EOG in shedding Canadian assets Chesapeake Finds 4.5 Billion-Barrel Oil Field in Appalachia: Rome Trough field holds about 65 percent oil and gas liquids JPMorgan Facing Criticism on Valuation of Complex Bonds It Sold: Bank ignored fees when determining values, consultant says NBCUniversal Said to Near $200 Million Investment in BuzzFeed Microsoft Jumps as Sales, Profit Top Estimates on Cloud Demand PayPal’s Three-Year Forecast Eases Concern About Card Pacts Volvo Profit Falls as North American Truck Orders Plunge Daimler Quarterly Profit Rises 10% on Mercedes E-Class, SUVs Schlumberger Beats Estimates as U.S. Shale Helps Lead Recovery China to Surpass U.S. as World’s Largest Aviation Market by 2024 Asian stocks pared their biggest weekly advance in a month as health-care companies led losses and an earthquake in western Japan weighed on Tokyo equities. Hong Kong markets were shut due to a typhoon. Local markets traded in lackluster fashion following the weak US lead where declines in oil and losses in telecoms dragged sentiment lower. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was initially supported by a weaker JPY before reports of an earthquake in the region dragged the index into the red. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was held back by underperformance in healthcare after Healthscope warned of weaker revenue growth for hospitals, while oil and gold names were pressured by the declines in their respective commodities. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) traded choppy after property prices continued to soar which could increase the attractiveness of real asset investments over stocks, while a stronger PBoC liquidity injection and typhoon which kept Hong Kong markets closed for trade further added to the indecisiveness. 10yr JGBs saw uneventful trade with the BoJ absent from the market while Kuroda comments also failed to provide any new surprises. 9 out of 10 sectors fall with telcos, staples underperforming and materials, energy outperforming. “It’s likely the quake provided a reason for investors to sell ahead of the weekend,” with the index hovering around multi-month highs, said Shinichi Yamamoto, a senior strategist at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. “Stocks appear to have managed to break out of their recent boxed-in range, and are likely to show solid performance next week as well.” Top Asian News Yuan Weakens Beyond Year-End Estimates as PBOC Lowers Fixing: Currency traded offshore declines close to record low China Home Prices Rise in Fewer Cities Amid Tougher Curbs: Authorities in 21 cities have imposed curbs to cool prices China Resources Pharma Said to Raise $1.8 Billion From IPO: Drugmaker prices first-time share sale below midpoint of range Inflation Outlook Rises Everywhere But Japan in Test for BOJ: Japan’s 5-year inflation swap below 0.3%, versus 1.9% in U.S. Duterte Goodbye to U.S. Swelling Costs on $42 Billion Bonds: Middle finger curse of EU also sped up outflows from peso debt Hong Kong Cancels Stock Trading as Typhoon Haima Lashes City: Airport Authority says 689 flights canceled or delayed In Europe, it has likewise been a rather uninspiring session so far with equities trading relatively flat as earnings continues to guide price action. IT names outperform this morning following Microsoft's financial results beating expectations, consequently shares rose over 6% in after-market hours to surge past their dot.com peak, while European listed SAP are among the best performers after the tech giant upgraded their profit forecast. Elsewhere, British American Tobacco leads the FTSE 100 higher on the back of reports that they are to purchase the remaining stake in Reynold American for GBP 47BN. European stocks held on to their biggest weekly gain in a month amid deal activity and mixed earnings report after ECB chief yesterday pushed talks on bond-plan future to later meeting. 10 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors fall with autos, health care underperforming and basic resources, banks outperforming. 50% of Stoxx 600 members decline, 47% gain. The ECB “put a lot of pressure on themselves and on us for the December meeting,” said Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea Markets in Copenhagen. “Markets are pretty dependent on their drugs, so to get out is difficult. There’s a big communication challenge here.” Top European News Draghi’s ‘Did Not Discuss’ Leaves Investors Filling Blanks: ECB chief pushes talks on bond-plan future to later meeting. Bombardier to Scrap 7,500 More Jobs as CEO Deepens Cost Cuts: Bellemare reduces employment for second time in eight months. Nissan Confronts Post-Brexit Reality With SUV Plant Decision: Britain’s top auto producer weighing whether to keep Qashqai. Deutsche Bank Shares Back to Level Before DOJ $14 Billion Demand: Shares traded at 13.10 euros before company confirmed request. Daimler Sees Growth Stalling on North America Truck Market Woes: Weak North America demand burdens Daimler’s trucks division Monte Paschi Heads for Best Week Ever With Fidentiis Skeptical: Monte Paschi climbs as much as 15%, extending this week’s rally to 54% as the Italian bank pressed ahead with plans to boost capital and sell non-performing loans. UBS’s Currency Trading Volume Hit Record as Pound Crashed: ‘We processed our highest volume of trades in a minute’: Hall Fed move, other central bank policy changes to boost trading In FX, the Bloomberg dollar gauge added 0.2 percent. South Korea’s won was the worst performer among major currencies, sliding 0.7 percent. The euro dropped 0.5 percent to $1.0880, falling for the first time through the low recorded on June 24, when the outcome of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union was announced. Draghi’s non-committal stance leaves traders waiting until at least December for news about policy changes. China’s yuan fell as much as 0.2 percent to 6.7605 per dollar in Shanghai, weakening beyond the 6.75 level that it was forecast to reach by year-end. The onshore yuan has declined in all but one session this month as the People’s Bank of China allowed a drop past the 6.7 level that was previously seen as its line in the sand. In offshore trading, the currency was within 0.5 percent of the weakest level recorded since trading began in 2010. In commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Index extended the first weekly decline in a month, falling 0.2 percent as dollar strength made raw materials more expensive to buy in other countries. Crude oil was little changed at $50.64 a barrel in New York, following Thursday’s retreat from a 15-month high. Rosneft PJSC Chief Executive Officer Igor Sechin said Russia is capable of a substantial boost to production less than two weeks after President Vladimir Putin pledged support for international efforts to limit output. Nigeria also said Thursday that it cut the price of every type of crude it sells in an effort to boost its global oil market share. Nickel fell 0.8 percent to $10,045 a ton in London having earlier touched the lowest price in two weeks. The metal came under pressure after China’s top stainless steel producer said it plans to cut output. Aluminum climbed for the first time in six days in London, trimming this week’s loss to 3.5 percent. Gold fell for a second day, dropping 0.2 percent to $1,263.73 an ounce, near its 200-day average, a measure watched by traders and analysts who use chart patterns to make price predictions. Looking at today's calendar, it looks set to be a much quieter end to the week today for data. In fact with no releases due in the US the only prints we’ll get today will be the UK public sector net borrowing data for September, due out this morning and the October consumer confidence print for the Euro area this afternoon. Away from that, the Fed’s Tarullo will speak this afternoon (3.15pm BST) followed by Williams (7.30pm BST) later this evening. The EU leaders will also continue on with the summit in Brussels while the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and Italy’s Padoan are due to speak this morning. Away from the macro, earnings wise we’ve got nine S&P 500 companies due to report including McDonald’s and General Electric (both prior to the open). * * * US Event Calendar No Macro 10:15am: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in New York 2:30pm: Fed’s Williams speaks in San Francisco 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap At a period of time in the current cycle where every other word spoken by central bankers gets debated to the nth degree, we instead find ourselves sitting here this morning mulling over what Draghi didn’t say at the ECB press conference yesterday. In one of the more dull ECB meetings in recent memory, Draghi has instead passed the baton on to December. The main takeaway was that Draghi confirmed that the ECB has not discussed tapering or extending the asset purchase program. Indeed there was no intention of using up the option to completely rule out tapering, or to openly pre-signal a QE extension. That said we don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes and it’s more than possible that his refusal to pre-commit to an extension is because he is trying to build a consensus on the council and that therefore the topic is being actively discussed. Our European economists don’t think that Draghi’s refusal to pre-commit in terms of extending QE and excluding a tapering should be read as the Governing Council thinking about a gradual termination of the QE programme from March 2017. Importantly they note that staff working groups have not yet completed their analysis on how to best tackle the bond scarcity issue were QE to be extended so pre-signalling at the meeting yesterday would have perhaps been premature. They also note that there was some room for an implicitly dovish signal towards the end of the press conference. Draghi seemed to dismiss the idea that markets are becoming too complacent in expecting QE to run indefinitely. One could see this as validating current market pricing of a further extension of QE. In summary, our economists continue to believe that the ECB will announce an extension of the €80bn QE programme in December. The key though to make it credible is how to resolve the eligible bond problem. On that subject, with today’s calendar fairly bare one event worth keeping an eye on is Portugal’s sovereign rating review by DBRS today. Draghi yesterday confirmed that Portugal’s debt would no longer become eligible to buy under the current QE programme in the event of a downgrade to junk today with Moody’s, Fitch and S&P already there. Earlier this month Portugal’s Finance Minister claimed that DRBS had a more positive assessment of the country’s fiscal efforts so that has somewhat tempered concerns. Markets were fairly choppy at and around the ECB. As Draghi spoke the Stoxx 600 dipped and touched an intraday low of -0.84%. However by the end of the press conference the index had pared all of that move lower and in fact as the session crept towards the close it had edged into positive territory (+0.19%) by the time the closing bell sounded. European Banks in particular seemed to enjoy the fact that there were no shocks with the Stoxx 600 Banks index ending +1.26% for its third successive daily gain. That index has quietly gone about climbing over +27% from the lows back in July which compares to a gain of ‘just’ +8% for the broader index. Meanwhile, the Euro (-0.41%) was under a bit of pressure and has touched the lowest level since March in trading this morning while sovereign bond yields – with the exception of Portugal (+1.5bps) – were 1-4bps lower across the board. As we moved into the US session the focus moved on from the ECB and over towards earnings which were on the whole a bit more disappointing. Following the strong results from the Banks, it was the telecom and tech sectors which underwhelmed with earnings reports from Verizon (shares down -2.48%) and eBay (shares down -10.76%) disappointing. That overshadowed better than expected numbers from American Express which sent shares up over 9% and the most in seven years. The S&P 500 (-0.14%) ended with a modest decline. Also not helping sentiment was a reversal in Oil prices. WTI (-2.30%) undid most of the move higher on Wednesday to close back below $51/bbl. The leg lower for Oil was blamed on comments from the CEO of Rosneft – the largest Oil company in Russia – who said that Russia has the capacity to add up to 4m barrels a day if there’s demand and conditions allow for it. Staying with Oil, yesterday Schlumberger became the first of the big Oil companies to report in the US. Q3 results were mixed with earnings beating but revenues a slight miss. The big names report next week. Switching our focus over to Asia this morning where it’s been a fairly directionless session to conclude the week. While the Nikkei (+0.29%) is up, the Shanghai Comp (-0.36%) has reversed earlier gains into the midday break while the Kospi (-0.40%) and ASX (-0.14%) have also edged lower. Markets in Hong Kong are still closed in anticipation of Typhoon Haima drawing closer. Datawise in Asia the focus has been on China. The September property prices data is out and it showed that new home prices (excluding government subsided housing) rose in 63 of the 70 cities last month. That’s down from 64 cities in August while prices dropped in 6 cities versus 4 in August, suggesting a cooling off. It’s worth also highlighting the move in the Chinese Yuan this morning. It’s currently down -0.18% after the fix was set weaker with the current 6.757 level the weakest in six years. Since Golden Week two weeks ago, the Yuan has depreciated on 8 of the last 10 days. Elsewhere this morning US equity index futures are down slightly despite Microsoft reporting better than expected Q3 numbers which sent shares up over 6% in extended trading. Staying with the micro focus briefly, in a report this morning, our European equity strategists highlight that many investors have been scratching their heads about the continued strength of the European mining sector, which has outperformed by 90% since January despite renewed USD strength and copper price weakness. An important driver of the outperformance is the fact that 75% of the sector is listed in the UK, making mining a key beneficiary of the plunge in Sterling. Yet, our strategists are cautious on the sector, as the recent USD strength and the fading Chinese credit impulse point to around 15% downside for metal prices. Given that Sterling only matters when it moves sharply, it would most likely take a renewed bout of political crisis in the UK to offset the impact of softening metal prices. Wrapping up what was a broadly decent day for economic data in the US yesterday. Existing home sales rose a bumper +3.2% mom last month, well exceeding expectations for just a +0.4% rise. Elsewhere the Philly Fed survey did fall 3.1pts at the headline to 9.7 however the market was forecasting for a bigger drop to 5.0. Also the underlying details showed much more improvement than the modest decline in the headline suggested. New orders (16.3 vs. 1.4 in the prior month) and shipments (15.3 vs. -8.8) in particular stood out while the number of employees also improved. Our US economists noted that the six-month outlook for capex also bounced by 12.6pts this month to 21.2. Elsewhere, the Conference Board’s leading index was up +0.2% mom last month as expected. Initial jobless claims rose 13k last week to 260k but there was some suggestion that this was impacted by Hurricane Matthew. The focus data wise in Europe was once again in the UK. The latest retail sales numbers came across as fairly soft with sales flat MoM both excluding and including fuel. That compared to expectations for a +0.2% and +0.3% increase respectively. Sterling was slightly weaker (-0.25%) although the move lower came a few hours after that data. As we glance over today’s calendar, it looks set to be a much quieter end to the week today for data. In fact with no releases due in the US the only prints we’ll get today will be the UK public sector net borrowing data for September, due out this morning and the October consumer confidence print for the Euro area this afternoon. Away from that, the Fed’s Tarullo will speak this afternoon (3.15pm BST) followed by Williams (7.30pm BST) later this evening. The EU leaders will also continue on with the summit in Brussels while the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and Italy’s Padoan are due to speak this morning. Away from the macro, earnings wise we’ve got nine S&P 500 companies due to report including McDonald’s and General Electric (both prior to the open).
Однако Эль-Эриан менее оптимистичен в отношении публично торгуемых ценных бумаг, таких как акции и облигации, поскольку мировые центробанки спровоцировали резкий рост цен на эти активы. Наличные составляют около 30% от его портфеля - больше, чем у большинства других управляющих фондов.
On October 11th, we celebrate Day of the Girl but we have a long way to go before achieving gender parity. Fifteen million girls are married before their 18th birthday; 62 million girls are not in school; and 1.1 billion girls and women around the world are excluded from the formal financial system. Yes, progress has been made over the past several decades, but it hasn’t been enough. And if we want to accomplish Global Goal #5 – achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls – by 2030, we need to make a move now. Just about one year ago, McKinsey & Company released a report entitled “How advancing women’s equality can add $12 trillion to global growth.” Yes, you read that correctly: $12 trillion. So let’s focus for a moment on the financial gender gap. In the U.S., The Census Bureau calculates that the median woman makes 79 cents for every dollar paid to the median man. In developing countries, there are 200 million more male cell phone owners than women, excluding an unprecedented amount of women from access to mobile financial services. Closing the gender gap entails giving women access to employment and financial mechanisms. And giving women the chance to become financially independent and make the most of their talents is the key to higher living standards and stronger economies. But advancement is going to take all of us: the nonprofit, private, and public sectors together. At SHE, we’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how to get women into jobs that are they aren’t usually seen in. We thought of different ways to describe and promote (manufacturing) jobs that are typically filled by men, sourced different recommenders, and pushed back on typical recruitment channels. For example, the head of the national technical we work with in Rwanda initially gave us only male candidates for manufacturing production positions because he assumed manufacturing would only suit men. We pushed back and asked for female candidates (who were only given vocational sewing classes initially). Because we wanted female candidates, the technical schools nationally started including women in more diverse classes like the brickmaking/laying class. There was a ripple effect as more gender balanced recruitment, retention, and promotion came from gatekeepers, but also girls and women themselves started confirming their identity in their new roles. Marie-Louise, our new lead production manager stated, "I never thought I could work in production, but once I did I have such pride in the things I make that are helping my fellow Rwandans." And at PIMCO, cultivating an inclusive and cognitively diverse culture is a top priority. For us, this initiative is not about quotas, affirmative action, or creating special benefits for any group of employees. We believe that our objectives can be achieved through recognizing, learning, and changing our behaviors and beliefs, resulting in better business outcomes. We’ve spent a lot of time working to reduce biases in our talent management processes and ramp up leadership development. We bring in experts like Mahzarin Banaji, Herminia Ibarra, Joanna Barsh, Stewart Friedman, Lori Nishiura Mackenzie, and Scott Page to educate our staff about centered leadership, unconscious bias, cognitive diversity, and seeing/blocking bias. We offer mentoring programs to both women and men, and in our recruitment process, we are more aggressive now about getting women onto the candidate slates and among those who interview. The firm also recently hired a new Inclusion, Diversity and Culture Officer – this position will sit in our Executive Office and report to our president. We are all responsible to change the status quo which is why SHE and the PIMCO Foundation, PIMCO’s philanthropic arm, formed a partnership reinforcing their commitment to gender parity in 2015. While we each take action in our separate institutions, we pursue disruptive innovation together. The PIMCO Foundation provides the financial support for SHE to design opportunities to benefit Rwandan girls and women. But our partnership is not transactional, nor is it limited to check-writing. Team members from the PIMCO Pro Bono Corps are helping SHE create a growth plan for franchising. We also support each other by serving as inspiration catalysts. By partnering together, we're hoping to collectively produce greater returns for women, our organizations, and communities. If we want to live in a world where there are no more child brides, where girls can stay in school and learn, and where girls and women are financially empowered, then we need to work together. We can’t do this work alone and in silos – it’s much too important and much too large. Together, we must pursue a more integrated approach that enables girls and women to thrive. The key to advancing girls and women is partnerships; it’s challenging, and it will make all the difference. So, in honor of Day of the Girl, let us recognize the achievements made and let us forcefully commit to ensuring girls and women live safe, educated and healthy lives. After all, our collective future is tied to the status of girls and women. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
LONDON (Reuters) - One of the world's biggest bond funds said on Thursday that a recent rise in UK government bond yields, which have almost doubled in the last six weeks, had mostly run its course.
Remember when two weeks ago the China Beige Book warned that "It’s A Lot More Negative Than People Think" in the world's second biggest economy? Well after months of complacency about the Chinese economy and financial risks emanating from its $35 trillion financial sector, overnight the world got a rude awakening when China export figures tumbled, signalling a deeper slowdown than many anticipated just as the Fed prepares to raise interest rates. As reported last night, the market was caught by surprise after China exports dropped the most in seven months as imports dropped suggesting the latest Chinese credit impulse has again faded; here is the breakdown of the latest disappointing trade data out of the world's former, and now massively levered, growth dynamo: China Yuan Exports -5.6% YoY (exp. +2.5%) China Yuan Imports +2.2% YoY (exp. +5.5%) China Trade Balance 278.35bn (exp. 364.5bn) China USD Exports -10.0% (exp. -3.3%) China USD Imports -1.9% (exp. +0.6%) China USD Trade balance 41.99bn (exp. 53.00bn) In Dollar terms that is the biggest drop in exports since February. Imports also slid to +2.2% yoy from +10.8%. As DB notes, "while the trade data has a tendency to be quite volatile, the data will pose downside risks to the Q3 GDP print next week and will also likely put the focus back on the currency." The market reaction was swift and unpleasant, as stocks fell around the world, while government bonds climbed. The key carry currency USDJPY plunged on the China news... ... as China's currency continues to weaken substantially, posing a renewed threat to the Chinese elephant in the room: an acceleration in capital outflows. The MSCI All-Country World Index headed for an almost three-month low, while 10-year yields on Treasuries dropped three basis points and the yen gained. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced to its highest level since March. The pound weakened to $1.2151, although it has since rebounded modestly, while Turkey’s lira slid to a record as renewed dollar strength risks send another shockwave among emerging markets. PIMCO said it’s time to reduce risk, with the overseer of the world’s biggest actively managed bond fund expecting the Fed to raise interest rates two or three times by the end of 2017. “Shares are falling on a combination of the prospect of the U.S. raising interest rates and a slowdown in global demand hurting China exports,” said Andrew Sullivan, managing director of sales trading at Haitong International Securities Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. The Stoxx Europe 600 dropped 0.9 percent in early London trading, led by declines in raw material and financial shares. BHP Billiton Plc and Rio Tinto Plc plunged more than 4 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index declined 0.8 percent to 2,115. Shares of Wells Fargo & Co. climbed in extended New York trading after the bank’s chief executive officer, John Stumpf, stepped down amid a public outcry over fake accounts. The Hang Seng Index slumped 1.6 percent in Hong Kong. Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. sank to its lowest level since 2009 after scrapping its profit outlook. Thailand’s benchmark SET Index tumbled 3.2 percent, however in a surprise move it soared from overnight lows and at last check was in the green . The index had fallen every day this week after the royal palace said on Sunday that the king’s condition was unstable. Benchmark U.S. 10-year yields slid to 1.74 percent, after climbing to the highest level since June on Wednesday. Australia’s 10-year yield dropped six basis points. China’s exports fell 10 percent in September from a year earlier, while imports declined 1.9 percent. Lackluster trade data may increase pressure on the yuan at the same time as new property curbs threaten the nation’s growth rate. “The Chinese economy is going to be weaker,” said Kazuaki Oh’E, the head of fixed income at CIBC World Markets Japan Inc. in Tokyo. “There’s a flight to quality.” Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk: European equities enter the North American crossover in negative territory as disappointing Chinese trade data hampers sentiment The Chinese trade figures took their toll on the risk currencies, while the USD remains firm against its major counterparts Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI, US Weekly Jobless Claims, DoE Crude Oil Inventory Report and comments from Fed's Harker Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 2119 Stoxx 600 down 0.7% to 336 FTSE 100 down 0.4% to 6999 DAX down 1.1% to 10407 German 10Yr yield down 2bps to 0.05% Italian 10Yr yield down 3bps to 1.39% Spanish 10Yr yield up 5bps to 1.11% S&P GSCI Index down less than 0.1% to 372.4 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.9% to 137 Nikkei 225 down 0.4% to 16774 Hang Seng down 1.6% to 23031 Shanghai Composite up less than 0.1% to 3061 S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5436 US 10-yr yield down 3bps to 1.74% Dollar Index up 0.11% to 98.08 WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $49.96 Brent Futures down 0.3% to $51.68 Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,257 Silver spot up 0.1% to $17.55 Top Global News Wells Fargo CEO Stumpf Quits in Fallout From Fake Accounts: Leaving CEO, chairman posts effective immediately; COO Tom Sloan to replace Stumpf; Stumpf Departure Doesn’t Quell Congress’ Fury: Legislators Fed Minutes Suggest Yellen Made the Difference in ‘Close Call’; investors will get a chance to hear directly from Yellen on Friday when she speaks at a Boston Fed conference. EBay to Raise More Than $1b Selling Stake in MercadoLibre: Parent offering up to 5.5m, underwriters Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan have option 825k extra MercadoLibre shares. Trump to Intensify Attacks on Clinton Over Bill’s Accusers: Advisers think tactic will make Hillary Clinton appear toxic, depress turnout among young women. U.S. to Double Shale Gas Exports on Cheniere’s Train 2: Co. cleared by U.S. regulators to start loading tankers with LNG from second plant at Sabine Pass, La. Janus-Henderson Sees U.S. Fund Growth Outstripping Others: Cos. expect largest growth in their combined funds management business to come from U.S. after 2 firms join together to oversee >$300b. Tesla Dominates U.S. Luxury Sedan Sales: U.S. sales of Model S jumped 59% y/y in 3Q, according to internal numbers. Sprint “Hail Mary” Financing Buys More Time for Turnaround: Softbanks CEO Son, his team have won raves from Wall Street by mortgaging Sprint’s most valuable assets to buy time to pay off creditors. SunEdison Receives Subpoena as Part of SEC Investigation: bankrupt clean-energy co. received notice Oct. 5 of “non- public, fact-finding investigation.” Apple CEO Tim Cook Visits Nintendo Headquarters in Kyoto: Cook spent about an hour meeting with Nintendo President Tatsumi Kimishima, Super Mario co-creator Shigeru Miyamoto. Hurricane Nicole Extremely Dangerous, Heads for Bermuda: NHC: Maximum winds at 130mph. Looking at regional markets, we start as traditional in Asia where stocks traded mostly lower following a subdued after weak Chinese trade data dampened sentiment, while relatively uneventful FOMC minutes provided little insight into the Fed's thinking. ASX 200 (-0.7%) was dragged by commodity names after oil prices retreated below USD 50.00/bbl following a lack of developments at producer talks in Istanbul and a build in API crude inventories. Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) failed to hold on to early gains alongside swings in USD/JPY, while discouraging Chinese data in which trade balance fell to a 6-month low and exports unexpectedly contracted pressured the Hang Seng (-1.6%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.1%), although the latter narrowly remained afloat following recent announcements to support investment growth in the mainland. The poor trade figures also weighed on US equity futures which saw E-mini S&P retreat below a key 2120.00 support level while Dow futures dropped over 100 points. Top Asian News China Cooling Property Market Is New Economic Growth Threat: High-profile tightening reverses two years of easing cycle. TSMC Profit Rises to Record on Orders for Apple Processors: 3Q net income NT$96.8b beats est. of NT$95.3b. Cathay Pacific Falls to 7-Year Low After Profit Outlook Scrapped: Jefferies expects Cathay to report losses in 2H and 2017. Samsung Stock Meltdown Attracts Investors on Survival Bets: Shares of Samsung trading near cheapest level since Feb. Showa Shell, Idemitsu to Delay Merger, Nikkei Says: Both parties still agree that early merger is necessary. Fast Retailing Forecasts FY Net Income Up 108.1%, Missing Est.: Sees net income of 100b yen for current fiscal year vs 104.7b yen analyst est. In Europe, the re-emergence of Chinese concerns took the limelight from last night's uninspiring FOMC minutes as soft Chinese data dictated price action this morning with weak imports and exports painting the picture that global demand remains sluggish. In reaction to this, US equity futures extended on losses with European equities following suit as Chinese exposed sectors, mainly material names dampened sentiment. As such, FTSE 100 has continued to pull away from its recent intra-day record highs seen earlier this week, while Tesco shares have also been weighing on the index after pulling Unilever products in a dispute over pricing. Government bond yields slipped amid the aforementioned Chinese trade figures with bonds paring the large declines seen from yesterday's session. Additionally, ECB sources resurfaced with reports indicating that the central bank could potentially make technical changes to QE including a temporary deviation from the capital key. Top European News Pound’s Plunge Squeezes U.K. Companies as Brexit Hedges End: Dilemma for merchants: pass on higher cost or hold line on prices that erode profits; London Home Presales Slump 14% as Brexit Compounds Tax Woes U.K. Housing Market Strengthens in Sept. as Brexit Hit Fades Unilever Price Increases Weigh on Demand in 3Q: Volume of 3Q goods sold declined 0.4%, surprising analysts who expected an increase. Brexit May Affect French Race With Juppe Demanding Hard Line: Alain Juppe, consistently ahead in polls, wants EU negotiators to take a harder line with U.K., according to an adviser. Sturgeon to Set Out Scottish Nationalists’ Response to Brexit: Scotland voted in June to stay in EU by 62% to 38%. ING Said to Add London Jobs, Cut Stock Derivatives in Revamp: Bank to move as many as 60 trading jobs to London from Amsterdam, Brussels; also to shut equity derivatives business for financial institutions in NYC, Singapore, Brussels. TomTom Falls After Forecast Cut; Auto Case Intact: Analysts: Personals navigation device (PND) result “is close to irrelevant” for investment case: ABN Amro. Nets Shares Fall; Nordea Teams Up With Danske on MobilePay: Banks to cooperate on developing payment system, which is rival to Nets. In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rose 0.2 percent. Odds on an increase in U.S. borrowing costs by the end of the year are around 68 percent, according to Fed funds futures, up about six percentage points from a week ago.The yen climbed 0.3 percent to 103.95 per dollar. South Korea’s won fell 1.1 percent after the country’s central bank held its key interest rate unchanged. Turkey’s lira depreciated 0.6 percent. Data released on Wednesday showed the nation’s current-account deficit in August was wider than expected, adding to a list of economic and political risks that are weighing on investor sentiment. In commodities, oil dropped, sliding below $50 a barrel in early trading after U.S. industry data showed stockpiles grew and as differences emerge within OPEC over how members will share output cuts, although it has since managed to rebound back over the psychological level. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5 percent to $49.93 a barrel. Base metals slumped amid concerns over China’s economy. Nickel sank as much as 1.9 percent on the London Metal Exchange, reversing earlier gains. While metals have advanced into a bull market this year as China’s economy stabilized, signs of an export slowdown are now clouding the outlook for global demand. Gold rose for a second day, and platinum rebounded after entering a bear market on Wednesday. Looking at the day ahead, we’ll get the September import price index reading along with the latest weekly initial jobless claims number. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Harker at 12;15pm when he speaks on the economic outlook in Philadelphia. Earnings wise we’ve got 3 S&P 500 companies reporting with Delta Airlines the notable name, while Sky is due to report in Europe. * * * US Event Calendar 8:30am: Sept. Import price index 8:30am: Initial jobless claims 8:45am: Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey 9am: DOE crude, diesel, natgas short term outlook 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change 11am: DOE inventories 12:15pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Economic Outlook in Philadelphia 9pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Town Hall in Missoula, Mont. * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Perhaps yesterday was the day that Brexit finally hit home to the British public. Migration debates, a sinking pound, rising gilt yields are a side show to the real distressing story. Yes the biggest food retailer in the U.K. have seemingly removed Marmite from our shelves in response to a dispute with suppliers over who pays for the higher post Brexit costs. Many other brands have been affected with Ben and Jerry's, Magnums and PG Tips some of those that caught my eye. It feels apt that Marmite is one of those impacted as like Brexit it can split opinions. At least the UK's first post-Brexit trade deal could be with Australia who can provide us with some Vegemite to soften the blow. Last night the blow of a hawkish set of FOMC minutes was offset by the fact that a) we knew they were going this way and b) a lot of water can still flow under the bridge before mid-December (assuming we’re ruling out a November hike given its proximity to the election). Indeed the minutes showed that the decision to stay on hold in September was a ‘close call’ while some participants believed that it would be appropriate to hike ‘relatively soon’ should the labour market continue to improve and economic activity strengthened. On the other hand ‘some others preferred to wait for more convincing evidence that inflation was moving toward the committee’s 2% objective’. It was also noted that ‘several participants expressed concern that continuing to delay an increase in the target range implied a further divergence from policy benchmarks based on the committee’s past behaviour or risked eroding its credibility’. There were some other interesting elements to the minutes however with the text revealing disparate views on the state of the labour market. The text showed that ‘participants generally expected the unemployment rate to run somewhat below their estimates of its longer-run normal rate over the next couple of years, but they offered differing views about the extent of slack that currently remained in the labour market’. As the dust settled the market reaction was pretty muted. There was no change in the implied pricing of a Fed rate hike in December at 68%. The Greenback (Dollar index +0.28%) rose for a third consecutive day but closed a smidgen off the pre-minute highs. Treasuries took a similar course with the 10y yield edging a few basis points down from the early afternoon highs to close at 1.770% and little changed on the day. This morning we’ve seen yields fall a further 3bps with risk assets in Asia taking a bit of a hit following the China trade data. Yesterday was however a much weaker day for European bond markets though where yields were broadly 4-7bps higher. The Gilt market appeared to be at the forefront again with the 10y yield up nearly 7bps to 1.042% while Sterling (+0.67%) pared back a big part of the early advance following the Parliamentary session. More on that shortly. In terms of equities meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed +0.11% after being up as much as +0.40%. Volumes have been a bit lower than usual this week but earnings season will start to kick into gear tomorrow when JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup all report so activity should pick up again. Meanwhile, along with a fall for Oil (WTI -1.20%) - with questions continuing to be asked about the commitment of an OPEC production cut - earnings also dictated a much weaker European session yesterday. The Stoxx 600 closed -0.47% with the tech sector (-2.57%) driving that after Ericsson plummeted more than 20% (and the most in 9 years) after the company issued a statement reporting a huge slide in Q3 sales and profits. Before we go any further, as we noted earlier the latest trade data is out in China this morning. It makes for slightly disappointing reading with exports unexpectedly plummeting to -10.0% yoy in September (vs. -3.3% expected) in USD terms from -2.8% in August. In CNY terms exports slid to -5.6% from +5.9% (vs. +2.5% expected). In Dollar terms that is the biggest drop in exports since February. Imports also slid to +2.2% yoy from +10.8%. While the trade data has a tendency to be quite volatile, the data will pose downside risks to the Q3 GDP print next week and will also likely put the focus back on the currency,The biggest impact to markets this morning is actually on bourses outside of China. The Nikkei (-0.39%), Hang Seng (-1.46%), Kospi (-1.18%) and ASX (-0.85%) have all declined while the losses for the CSI 300 (-0.11%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) have been a lot more modest, although markets there have chopped around all morning. The Yen has rallied close to half a percent, while the Aussie Dollar (-0.36%), Korean Won (-0.53%) and Malaysian Ringgit (-0.42%) have seen the biggest impact in the FX market. Moving on. There wasn’t much data released yesterday with the lone print in the US being a slightly underwhelming JOLTS report. The data showed that job openings declined to 5.44m in August from 5.83m in July. Market expectations were for a 5.80m print. The job opening rate declined to 3.6% from 3.9% and while the level of job openings was actually the lowest this year, there wasn’t a great deal of reaction in markets given we have since had that September employment report. In Europe the main highlight datawise was a slightly better than expected industrial production report for the Euro area (+1.6% mom vs. +1.5% expected). Staying with Europe, there was a bit of focus on a Reuters report yesterday suggesting that the ECB may consider technical changes to its asset-buying scheme next week. The article suggested that the ECB could consider proposals on small, temporary deviations from the capital key and buying of bonds with yields below the depo rate. That clearly fits with the mantra of the ECB allowing itself the flexibility to ensure it can continue buying €80bn worth of bonds each month even if it decides to extend the program length. Coming back to the latest Brexit news. Yesterday following the PM’s Questions, UK lawmakers approved the motion from the opposition Labour Party which will give Parliament the right to examine the Government’s exit strategy prior to formal talks. However, PM Theresa May stopped short of allowing for a vote on the strategy which dented hopes that some in the market had of a slight softening in stance. Brexit Secretary David Davis also confirmed that he would allow Parliament to scrutinize details as long as it did not ‘thwart the process of exit’. A reminder that today the High Court will deem whether or not an Act of Parliament is needed for Article 50 to be triggered, with a loss for the government potentially leading to delays or forcing the issue in the House of Commons and House of Lords. As we look at the day ahead now, the calendar is reasonably light over the next 24 hours. This morning in Europe the only data due out is the final September CPI report in Germany. Over in the US this afternoon we’ll get the September import price index reading along with the latest weekly initial jobless claims number. Away from the data we’re due to hear from the Fed’s Harker this evening (5.15pm BST) when he speaks on the economic outlook in Philadelphia. Earnings wise we’ve got 3 S&P 500 companies reporting with Delta Airlines the notable name, while Sky is due to report in Europe.
Когда компании сливаются, то их руководители, как правило, полны невероятного оптимизма. Что-то похожее было и на состоявшейся на пресс-конференции по поводу слияния Henderson Global Investors и Janus Capital.
Курс доллара США к евро поднимается во вторник вторую сессию подряд благодаря росту ожиданий повышения базовой процентной ставки Федеральной резервной системой (ФРС).
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors poured $1.2 billion into the Pimco Income Fund, overseen by group chief investment officer Dan Ivascyn, in September, bringing total assets under management to $66...
06.03.2016 г. на ресурсе China Matters появилась публикация, очень точно нацеленная на нанесение репутационного ущерба Х.Клинтон в контексте предвыборной кампании в США Название статьи: «Ливия: хуже, чем Ирак. Прости, Хиллари». Ливийское фиаско может оказаться камнем преткновения в президентских притязаниях Хиллари Клинтон.
Новым президентом Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса стал бывший топ-менеджер инвестбанка Goldman Sachs и фонда облигаций PIMCO Нил Кашкари.
Вкладчики забирают свои деньги из американского фонда PIMCO . он потерял больше 20 миллиардов долларов. Так инвесторы реагируют на уход из компании одного из основателей Билла Гросса. А вот акции фонда Janus Capital, в который легендарный инвестор устроился на работу, стали пользоваться повышенным спросом. Как на этом заработать?
Pacific Investment Management Co. привлек средства клиентов, для того чтобы вложиться в "токсичные" активы, пишут западные СМИ со ссылкой на свои источники. Сейчас самое время для покупки "токсичных" активовТаким образом, Билл Гросс, глава PIMCO, одной из крупнейших в мире компаний по управлению активами, наконец сдался. Он стал, наверно, последним управляющим, который признал, что при доходности десятилетних трежерис в 2,5% покупать нужно акции, а не облигации. Многие коллеги по цеху уже давно сместили свои аппетиты в пользу более высокодоходных активов. Об этом свидетельствуют и последние данные по доходности, согласно которым самый большой фонд PIMCO уступает 70% своих конкурентов. Мало того, что Гросс изменил самому себе, так еще и активы для инвестиций, если верить источникам, выбраны самые что ни на есть "токсичные". Но обо всем по порядку. Речь идет о фонде Bravo II, в который было привлечено ни много ни мало $5,5 млрд. На данный момент он уже закрыт для новых клиентов. Так вот, эти деньги планируется вложить в банковский сектор США и Европы, но это будут не акции или облигации, это будут на самом деле "токсичные" активы, то есть те, от которых банкам в срочном порядке нужно избавиться. Иными словами, списать их со своих балансов. Commerzbank уже успел продать часть просроченных кредитовПо сути, это просроченные кредиты, выданные банками как на покупку жилья, так и на другие цели. Такого "добра" у европейских кредиторов, что называется, выше крыши. Недаром МВФ еще в 2012 г. обязал банкиров избавиться от этих "плохих" кредитов до 2014 г. По подсчетам валютного фонда, тогда объем "мусора" составлял порядка $4,5 млрд. Если взглянуть на календарь, то становится ясно - банки уже выбиваются из графика. Конечно, глупо полагать, что они еще не притрагивались к расчистке балансов, но найти достаточно покупателей на эти активы задача не из легких. Поскольку время на исходе, диктовать цену теперь будут исключительно покупатели. Банки же в свою очередь будут молить о покупке. И все же, это же "токсичный" долг, то есть кредиты, просроченные уже по нескольку раз. Как такой актив может стать хорошей инвестицией? Вероятно, может. Расчет делается на то, что цена, уплаченная за такие активы, ничтожно мала относительно ее номинала, а на фоне восстановления экономики есть шанс, что те безработные, которые и являются должниками, наконец найдут себе новое место на рынке труда и тогда "мертвый" кредит оживет. Платежи по нему быстро сделают такой долг прибыльным для держателя. Среди хедж-фондов есть даже специальная классификация для тех, кто занимается подобными инвестициями. Можно вспомнить, например, как фонд Марка Мобиуса вложился в бонды Греции практически на минимальных отметках. Заработок в итоге превысил 200%. Билл Гросс открывает новые идеиС поиском продавцов у PIMCO проблем возникнуть не должно. Предложение достаточно велико. Так, по информации The Wall Street Journal, Commerzbank в феврале продал свой портфель ипотечных кредитов, выданных в Испании за 710 млн евро. Британский RBS продал портфель кредитов под постройку коммерческой недвижимости хедж-фонду Varde Partners. А частная инвестиционная компания KKR из США совсем недавно завершила переговоры о покупки "токсических" активов у итальянских банков Intesa Sanpaolo и UniCredit. Остается вопрос, зачем PIMCO занимается несвойственной для себя работой? Ответ лежит на поверхности: из-за низкой доходности уже несколько месяцев подряд из фондов компании наблюдается отток средств. Для того чтобы наверстать упущенное, Билл Гросс и решился на этот поступок.