The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Winklevoss Bitcoin, Reality Shares, Shares PHLX and VanEck Vectors
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Winklevoss Bitcoin, Reality Shares, Shares PHLX and VanEck Vectors
В среду индекс CPI, вероятно, покажет, что инфляционное давление в австралийской экономике стабилизировалось, говорят в ANZ. И это означает, что банк придерживается своего мнения о том, что Резервный банк Австралии находится на пути к повышению ставок в мае этого года. Банк прогнозирует небольшой рост квартальных темпов роста базовой инфляции, ожидая, что базовая инфляция останется стабильной, что, скорее всего, будет обусловлено более высокими ценами на бензин, внутренние поездки и табачные изделия. И хотя прогноз банка на 1,8% -ный рост базовой инфляции остается ниже целевого диапазона РБА, который составляет 2-3%, старший экономист ANZ Джо Мастерс сказал, что эти цифры должны придать определенный вес аргументу о том, что инфляционные силы растут. «Наши прогнозы соответствуют тем, которые опубликованы в заявлении РБА по денежно-кредитной политике, и согласуются с мнением о том, что инфляция стабилизировалась и постепенно будет расти со временем», - сказал экономист. - «Результат, соответствующий нашему прогнозу, будет, по нашему мнению, обеспечивать достаточный комфорт вокруг прогноза инфляции, чтобы проложить путь для повышения ставок на 25 базисных пунктов в мае». Текущий прогноз ANZ находится в противоречии с инвестиционными банками Morgan Stanley , UBS и Westpac, которые ожидают, что ставки останутся в силе в течение 2018 года, в то время как аналитики Credit Suisse подняли перспективу дальнейшего снижения ставок в исследовательской записке на прошлой неделе. Владельцы объяснили вялый рост инфляции в Австралии двумя знакомыми темами: неизменно низкий рост заработной платы и усиление конкуренции в секторе розничной торговли. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Данные по инфляции в Австралии от TD Securities в декабре в годовом исчислении показали уровень 2,3% и это более медленный рост чем в ноябре ( 2,7%). В месячном исчислении инфляция снизилась в декабре до 0,1% с 0,2% в ноябре. Данные по инфляции от TD Securities публикуются факультетом экономики и торговли Университета Мельбурна и оценивают уровень инфляции в австралийской экономике. Чем он выше, тем более сильное влияние он потенциально способен оказать на РБА при определении необходимости повышения ставки. В отчете TD Securities отмечено, что рост инфляции в декабре был в более медленном темп, чем в ноябре, но все же выше ключевого уровня 2% Австралийский доллар вырос, несмотря на некоторое ослабление внутреннего ценового индекса инфляции потребительских цен. Официальные цифры австралийской инфляции выпускаются только один раз в квартал, поэтому данные TD Securities служат своего рода ежемесячным показателем. Самые последние официальные данные за третий квартал показали годовой уровень инфляции в 1,8%, продолжая тенденцию к снижению ставок с первого квартала, когда рост составил 2,1%. Показатель любого индикатора инфляции выше ключевого уровня 2%, вероятно, является хорошей новостью для быков по австралийскому доллару и пара AUD / USD действительно выиграла после выхода данных. Ошибочно сказать, что цифры вызвали выигрыш, поскольку доллар США уже находился под повсеместным давлением, поскольку рынки смотрят на восстановление мировой экономики и на перспективу роста процентной ставки ФРС. Резервный банк Австралии удерживает инфляцию в диапазоне 2% до 3% в течение экономического цикла, и ее установщики ставок могут найти какую-то причину для повышения уровня ставок. Тем не менее, официальная инфляция, как ожидается, останется по меньшей мере относительно стабильной, поскольку фьючерсные рынки не смогут полностью оценить любое увеличение основной процентной ставки Австралии до начала 2019 года. Сейчас ставка РБА находится на рекордном минимуме 1,50%. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
It might be the last full week before Christmas - with both newsflow and trading volumes set to slide substantially - but there’s still a few interesting events and data releases to look forward to next week. Among the relatively sparse data releases schedule, we get US GDP, core PCE, housing and durable goods orders in the US, as well as CPI and GDP across Euro area and UK PMI. After last week's central bank deluge, there are a handful of leftover DM central bank meetings include the BOJ and Riksbank, with rates expected to remain on hold for both. In Emerging markets, there will be monetary policy meetings in Czech Republic, Hungary, Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Perhaps the most significant will be in China when on Monday the three-day Central Economic Work Conference kicks off. This event will see Party leaders discuss economic policies for the next year and the market will probably be most interested in the GDP growth target. Deutsche Bank economists have noted that it will be interesting to see if the government will change the tone on its growth target by lowering it explicitly from 6.5% to 6% or fine-tuning the wording to reflect more tolerance for slower growth. Away from this, tax reform in the US will once again be a topic for markets to keep an eye on with final votes on the Republican legislation in the Senate (possibly Monday or Tuesday) and House (possibly Tuesday or Wednesday) tentatively scheduled. Also worth flagging in the US is Friday’s release of the November personal income and spending reports and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – the core PCE print. Current market expectations are for a modest +0.1% mom rise in the core PCE which translates into a one-tenth uptick in the YoY rate to +1.5%. Away from that other data releases in the US include November housing starts (Tuesday), the final Q3 GDP revisions (Thursday) and flash November durable and capital goods orders data (Friday). In Europe, Brexit related headlines should rumble on with the European Commission due to publish its directives for the Brexit transition phase on Wednesday and Heads of mission from EU member states also due to meet on the same day. UK PM Theresa May is also due to meet with her Cabinet on Tuesday. Also worth flagging are the Catalonia regional elections due on Thursday. According to polls, Podemos could emerge as the potential king-maker with ~10 seats. This ambitious positioning could allow them to support an ERC and Junts pel Cat minority government while keeping the unilateral agenda in check. Alternatively, if Citizens continues on its strong momentum and ends up being the first party accompanied by a strong performance of the Socialists, Podemos could decide to support a minority unionist government. Meanwhile, data releases next week in Europe include the final November CPI report for the Euro area (Monday), December IFO survey in Germany (Tuesday) and final Q3 GDP reports for France and the UK (Friday). Finally the last of the big four central bank meetings of the year is scheduled for Thursday with the Bank of Japan monetary policy outcome due. No policy changes are expected but given the evidence of a recent new dissenter on the BoJ board calling for more stimulus, it’ll be interesting to see if there is any change in tone. Summary weekly events from BofA: In the US, we have GDP, PCE and housing data. In the Eurozone, we mainly wait for CPI, consumer confidence, labor costs and construction output. ECB speakers are also on the agenda. In the UK, the main focus is on GDP and public sector net borrowing. In Japan, we wait for the BoJ's monetary policy decision and trade balance. In Canada, we have GDP, CPI, retails sales and the consumer price index. In Australia, RBA December rate meeting minutes, leading index and new home sales will be released. In New Zealand, GDP, trade balance, consumer confidence are on the schedule. In the Scandies, we have the Riksbank rate decision, retail sales and consumer & manufacturing confidence in Sweden while in Norway we wait for the unemployment rate and a speech by Central Bank Governor Olsen. In Switzerland, we wait for sight deposits, trade balance and leading indicator. A breakdown of key events by day from Deutsche Bank: Monday: Much of the focus on Monday will be on China where the annual Central Economic Work Conference is due to kick off and continue into Wednesday. Also worth watching out for is a possible Senate vote on the Republican tax legislation (this could also come on Tuesday). Datawise the final Euro area CPI report for November is due, along with UK CBI trends orders data for December and the December NAHB housing market index in the US. November property prices data in China will be out in the early morning. Tuesday: Politics is likely to be the main focus on Tuesday too with a possible US House vote on the tax legislation (may also come on Wednesday) and UK PM Theresa May due to sit down with her Cabinet to hash out further Brexit details. Away from that the data calendar is fairly light with the December IFO survey in Germany, Q3 labour costs for the Euro area and November housing starts and building permits data in the US due. The ECB’s Hansson is also due to speak. Wednesday: Expect Brexit headlines to continue on Wednesday with the European Commission due to publish its directives for the Brexit transition phase and heads of mission from EU member states due to meet to discuss Brexit. Away from that data releases include November PPI in Germany, December CBI retail sales in the UK and November existing home sales in the US. Thursday: All eyes will be on Japan in the early morning with the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting outcome due, followed by Governor Kuroda’s press conference. Away from that we’ll get the third and final revision for Q3 GDP in the US, while the October FHFA house price index and November leading index ill also be out across the pond. In Europe December confidence indicators in France and November public sector net borrowing data in the UK are due. Also worth keeping an eye on will be the regional elections in Catalonia. Friday: A fairly busy end to the week with the main data of note being the November personal income and spending data and core PCE data in the US. Also due out in the US is the flash November durable and capital goods orders data, November new home sales and the final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. In Europe we’ll receive final Q3 GDP revisions for France and the UK and January consumer confidence data for Germany. Finally, here is Goldman with a focus on key US events and consensus estimates: The key economic releases next week are the third vintage of Q3 GDP on Thursday and personal income and spending report on Friday. There are no scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Monday, December 18 10:00 AM NAHB homebuilder sentiment, December (consensus 70, last 70) Tuesday, December 19 08:30 AM Housing starts, November (GS -2.5%, consensus -3.2%, last +13.7%): We estimate housing starts edged 2.5% lower in November, reflecting some correction from the sharp rise in the more volatile multifamily starts category in October. We could see a moderate boost from ongoing rebuilding in the South following the Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. While the impact of higher mortgage rates has likely weighed on single family demand and construction earlier this year, we suspect this drag has now largely faded. 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q3 (consensus -$116.5bn, last -$123.1bn) Wednesday, December 20 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, December (GS 20.5, consensus 20.8, last 22.7): We estimate the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index edged lower in December, though remaining at expansionary levels, consistent with the Empire State manufacturing report last week. 10:00 AM Existing home sales, November (GS +2.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +2.0%): We estimate existing home sales rose 2.5% in November (mom sa) following a 2.0% increase last month that likely reflected continued post-hurricane strength. Our forecast reflects firming in regional housing data tracking closed homes sales in November and strong pending home sales data in October. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Thursday, December 21 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q3 (GS +3.3%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.3%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.3%); The BEA on Thursday will publish the third vintage of Q3 GDP, which we expect to remain at +3.3%, in line with consensus expectations. 8:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 16 (GS 230k, consensus 234k, last 225k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 9 (last 1,886k): We estimate initial jobless claims rose 5k to 230k in the week ended December 16, reflecting a pickup in filings in some states where the level looks abnormally low. However, we expect the overall trend of layoff activity to remain subdued. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined in the previous week, another encouraging sign that the extent of job loss has remained low. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, October (consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%) Friday, December 22 8:30 AM Personal income, November (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, November (GS + 0.6%, Consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); PCE price index, November (GS + 0.26%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, November (GS + 0.11%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +1.79%, consensus +1.8%, last +1.6%); Core PCE price index (yoy), November (GS + 1.52%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.4%): We estimate a 0.6% increase in November personal spending (nominal, mom sa). Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index increased 0.11% month-over-month in November, or +1.52% from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index rose 0.26% in November, or +1.79% from a year earlier. We estimate a 0.5% increase in personal income. 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, November preliminary (GS +2.0%, consensus +2.2%, last -0.8%); Durable goods orders, ex-transportation, November preliminary (GS +0.6 %, consensus +0.5%, last +0.9%); Core capital goods orders, November preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.3%); Core capital goods shipments, November preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +1.1%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 2.0% in the preliminary November report (mom sa), reflecting a pickup in commercial aircraft orders and a deceleration in core measures. Industrial production of business equipment rose a firm 0.5% in the month, and broader manufacturing trends remain strong, according to November- and December-to-date manufacturing surveys. Accordingly, we forecast a 0.5% increase in orders and a 0.4% increase in shipments of core capital goods, and we estimate a 0.6% rise in durable goods orders ex-transportation. 10:00 AM New home sales, November (GS -4.0%, consensus -5.1%, last +6.2%): We estimate new home sales pulled back 4.0% in November after rising to a cycle-high in October. We expect only a partial retracement, consistent with robust regional pending homes sales. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December final (GS 96.5, consensus 97.2, last 96.8): We expect a modest decrease in the final reading of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for December (-0.3pt to 96.5), reflecting some softness in higher frequency measures of consumer sentiment despite higher equity prices. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rose by one tenth to 2.5% in the preliminary reading. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, December (consensus +15, last +16) Source: BofA, Deutsche, Goldman
Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from fxdailyterminal.com Over the past week, the argument that the tax reform aimed at corporates specifically could prompt a period of USD repatriation - much like an amnesty - has been growing in sentiment, and whether one believes in this, remains an upside risk we shouldn't ignore. Since the Fed's much anticipated rate hike, we have seen a moderate hit on the USD reversed in full, but put in perspective, the overall ranges traded so far have been modest to say the least. We also shouldn't ignore the time of year, where liquidity is not at its best, though has been enough to send the major indices on Wall Street to new record highs. There was a time this would have sent USD/JPY soaring, but it hasn't, but times have changed and most of us can see that global growth reflected in the stock markets is a far cry from that seen through wage growth and inflation. There has also been some focus on cross currency basis, turning negative to further signal year end USD demand and into early 2018, which can be tied-in in part to the repatriation story above. Some will attribute it to regulatory pressures in Europe (derivatives market) as well as Japan, and although immeasurable for the most part, is a risk worth noting given our focus for the week ahead. As such, we look for concurrent moves in EUR/USD and USD/JPY, with a move in the former through 1.1700 likely to correspond with a USD/JPY push for 113.50-114.00 again. Once again, in light of the illiquid period ahead, these are merely risks we are highlighting, and given where the respective spot rates ended up on Friday night, it is noteworthy risk at this stage. Through 1.1700, EUR/USD will test the band of support seen in the 1.1650-1.1550 area, where the longer term interest based on the Euro zone recovery continues to carry favour. Based on the rising PMIs in Germany and other leading states, notably France, few can argue that there is momentum here, but this is largely priced in for now as we can see in some of the relative performance in the cross rates. Even a supported EUR/CHF rate is struggling at 1.1700. In the final week into Christmas, we should see the EU wide inflation reading for Nov confirmed at 1.5% while the German IFO survey will likely continue with a healthy business climate. Italian industrial production and orders later in the week will give us some insight into whether the rest of Europe is keeping up pace, but all of the above - as we have already alluded to - will do little to materially better the EUR position for now. USD/JPY in the meantime survived the short lived post FOMC sell off, in a move which was seemingly pre-empted as 'dovish hike fade', but that lasted for all of a day at best. We held 112.00 on the downside, with 111.50-60 the strong base lower down, and despite the longer term bias for USD weakness and a return through 110.00 at some stage, the consolidation phase looks set to continue with 114.00-115.00 yet to be retested in any substantial way. The BoJ meeting towards the end of the week will again maintain current policy stance aimed at getting inflation back to 2.0% target, so the only interesting potential is of any dissenters to the persistent asset purchasing and an eventual unwind. Domestic data is improving, albeit slowly, but the central bank have their mandate - the markets have their own take, and it is one which looks likely to test the BoJ's tolerance for JPY strength at some point down the line. When rather than if! In the UK, GBP looks capped now that the EU-UK passage to the round of talks on trade have been secured. Once again, the agreements made to facilitate this are nothing more than a 'statement of intent' - as David Davis put it - so we are now at the crux of the negotiation, and this should start to weigh on some of the (blind) optimism which has driven GBP to better levels across the board. To temper this, we are not advocating a return to the doom and gloom scenario, rather some moderation which would put Cable back to levels closer to 1.3000-1.3100 rather than creating a platform for a move through 1.3500-1.3600 for 1.4000 as some have suggested. It is all sentiment here for now. EUR/GBP has found good support in the mid 0.8700's, but we also see limited scope for an aggressive push through 0.9000 unless Brexit cordiality breaks down completely. On the UK economy, notable was the lack of positive response to the bumper spending results seen for Nov. Naturally there will be a discounting factor in pre Xmas buying incorporating the Back Friday sales, and next year's numbers will make for a far better reading on consumer appetite and more importantly disposable income. The final Q3 GDP print is the only notable data point next week including business investment numbers. We also saw some reprieve for the AUD and NZD last week, with both consistently getting hammered into their recent lows with very little breathing space. NZD had recovered first, again, largely down to over-exhaustion and traders throwing the towel in, so suggestions that the market have eased up on their bearish sentiment on the new coalition government look a little premature, not to say 'convenient' at this stage. This is not to say that the recovery does not have a little more to run, and could be generated through the EUR and GBP crosses, with over-extensions here - much in the same way as we have seen in EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD - redressed into year end at least. Lots of data in NZ next week, with more business confidence surveys (ANZ), current account and trade all leading up to Friday's Q3 GDP number. Little in the way of stats to consider in Australia, so markets will focus on the RBA minutes and what the central bank take is on the economy. With bearish sentiment emanating on low wage growth, low inflation and high household debt, the AUD got a welcome boost from a 60k+ rise in jobs, which keeps hopes alive for the Phillips Curve kicking in. Little evidence of that in the US, but hope is hope and the AUD has weakened enough for now, with 0.7500 proving a strong base. AUD/NZD is now the one to watch, where we took out pre 1.0900 demand, but the late Sep lows ahead of 1.0800 remain intact as yet. CAD traders have some hard data to feed on rather than hang on every speech and reported rhetoric from the BoC. Accused of a hard turnaround from the post rate hike hawkishness, the market was once again wrong-footed on governor Poloz's statements this week, who stated that he saw the need for less stimulus going forward. The CAD push up was brief however, and found fresh buyers looking for an eventual push through 1.2900 based on the retrenchment in CAD rates. The jobs report for Nov was strong however, and if CPI, retail sales and ultimately GBP can can improve on the moderate expectations (0.2% growth seen for Oct), then perhaps USD/CAD can survive a push on the heavily offered 1.2900-1.3000 area. Fear of long(s) liquidation by some banks suggest this could facilitate a move through the above mentioned area, but this assumes intent, which again, is immeasurable. We could also say this about strong positioning in the market for (long) EUR's!
Филипп Лоу, глава центробанка Австралии, отсыпал толику здравого смысла про криптодвиж: "Криптовалюты окружены спекулятивной манией, но если рассматривать их как средство расчета, они неэффективны и интересны лишь криминальному миру. Для повседневных расчетов они малопригодны. К примеру, если вы решите купить чашку кофе, стоимость самой транзакции превысит стоимость самого кофе. Стоимость самой транзакции экстраординарна. Кроме того, хотите ли вы использовать в качестве средства платежа сущность, котировки которой может колебаться на 20% за одни сутки?". Авторство: Авторская работа / переводика Использованные источники: Sydney Morning Herald
ЦБ Австралии: Криптовалюты окружены "спекулятивной манией" и непригодны как средство расчета (alexsword)
Филипп Лоу, глава центробанка Австралии, отсыпал толику здравого смысла про криптодвиж: 45 комментариев
Sweden’s Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, is exploring the possibility of a digital register-based e-krona; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is researching whether its physical currency could be replaced by a digital alternative; the Bank of England is trialling blockchain-like systems; the Monetary Authority of Singapore is examining the use of distributed ledger technology for clearing and settlement of payments; and the PBoC said in October that it had completed tests on algorithms for a prototype of its own digital currency. Now the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has entered the fray with an all too familiar refrain. We’re paraphrasing…Bitcoin is bad, the realm of criminals and little more than a speculative mania, but the technology underlying Bitcoin has great potential, which we can exploit in time with our own “superior” digital currency. This is what Philip Lowe, the RBA’s Governor, actually said about Bitcoin at the Australian Payment Summit, which took place today at the Hyatt Sydney Regency in Sydney Harbour. When thought of purely as a payment instrument, (Bitcoin) seems more likely to be attractive to those who want to make transactions in the black or illegal economy, rather than everyday transactions. So the current fascination with these currencies feels more like a speculative mania than it has to do with their use as an efficient and convenient form of electronic payment. No surprise there, just more of the same from banking Mafiosi like Lowe, the ECB’s Constancio (“tulip”) and most notably, JPM’s Dimon. The Financial Times article outlining the RBA’s thinking sets out the case for blockchain/distributed ledger technology. Central banks, commercial banks and other financial institutions are exploring how to use private distributed ledgers to make financial transactions cheaper, more transparent, and less vulnerable to fraud. Banks and settlement systems currently use central electronic ledgers to track money transfers. But these systems can be slow, often rely on manual input and are open to hacking. Distributed ledger records transactions through a network of computers rather than a single central party…The attractions of the technology include the ability to make fast digital money transfers that do not carry the cost of handling cash, tracked securely by the network. But…there’s just one thing missing, which is where we “need” our central banking friends. However, a potential drawback of bitcoin-style systems is the lack of a central entity standing behind the liability, Mr Lowe said. Philip Lowe’s and his RBA colleagues are examining the potential for an eAUD, which would be issued alongside physical banknotes - although the FT article neglects to add the word “initially” (if you’ll excuse our cynicism). Australia’s central bank is exploring creating electronic banknotes using the technology underpinning bitcoin, as major central banks around the world race to bring cash into the digital age. Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said in a speech on Wednesday that the bank was analysing the benefits and drawbacks of issuing an electronic form of the Australian dollar — the “eAUD” — alongside traditional banknotes. Speaking at the Australian Payment Summit, Mr Lowe said: “It is possible that the RBA might, in time, issue a new form of digital money…perhaps using distributed ledger technology.” He added that although the RBA has “no immediate plans” to issue digital dollars, the central bank is “continuing to look at the pros and cons”. The central bank also is exploring a new digital dollar settlement system based on the use of distributed ledger technology, or blockchain, the technology behind bitcoin. Digital dollars could take the form of a “token” that is issued and stored in consumers’ digital wallets, which can then be used for payments in a similar way to physical bank notes. Perhaps in a classic case of “problem, reaction, solution”, we’re speculating of course, the RBA will introduce an eAUD and phase out physical currency during the next financial crisis. In the case of Australia we may not have too long to wait as we discussed last month in “The Party’s Over For Australia’s $5.6 Trillion Housing Frenzy”. However, we noted the best analogy for the “Down Under” economy in “Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards” in which Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale argued that the three decades long expansion was mostly the result of “dumb-luck”. As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble. Browsing through the speaker biographies at the Australian Payment Summit, besides being RBA Governor, Philip Lowe is also (we can’t help but smile) a member of Australia’s Financial Stability Board and “spent two years at the Bank for International Settlements working on financial stability issues”. On a serious note, we know the direction which central banks want to lead us, as we argued a week ago with regard to the nomination of Marvin Goodfriend as Fed governor. It’s clear from reading between the lines that although central bankers are not engaging in a public discussion, the architects of the boom-bust cycles are considering their policy options for the next crisis…the one where their latest credit/asset bubble bursts in horrendous fashion. It’s also clear that the preferred solution is negative interest rates and either abolishing paper currency or taxing it in line with a depreciating digital currency standard. The RBA’s Philip Lowe is another minion seeking to control the narrative for the banking Mafiosi.
Больше остальных на слабости доллара США отработала именно AUD/USD. И у пары на это было несколько причин.Во-первых, конечно, неопределенность дальнейших планов ФРС в плане ставки вновь возвращает интерес к AUD, так как появляется надежда, что именно Резервный Банк Австралии первым повысит ставку, а не американский регулятор.Во-вторых, экономические отчеты из Австралии. Сегодня мы увидели рост числа новых рабочих мест на 61 тысячу, хотя прогнозировалось увеличение лишь на 19 тыс. Более того, около 80% работающего населения - занятые полный рабочий день.Такой резкий рост рабочих мест должен вылиться в увеличение потребительских расходов, что способно запустить инфляцию. А, значит, РБА придется делать шаги. И это на пользу австралийскому доллару. Ближайшей целью на пути AUD/USD может стать отметка 0.7720.Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.Управляй аналитиками!Вы долгое время делились своими мыслями, а аналитики вас не слушали? Вы точно знаете, что принесет прибыль в ближайшем месяце? Вы умеете делать правильный выбор? Тогда вам пора на страницу «Инвестиционные идеи». Теперь вы сами выбираете, какую идею сделать инвестиционной. А очень скоро вы сможете и добавлять свои! Каждую неделю новые идеи для голосования и инвестиций!Пойду проголосую aud/usd, форекс клуб Не найдены экономические события с 2017-12-14 по 2017-12-14 AUDUSD
While Ethereum remains solidly higher on the day, the entire crypto space just took a notable leg lower. The day's slide started around 9amET, when a burst of gold buying appears to have reset the correlation between XAU and BTC: Just a few hours later, Bitcoin is back below $16,000 Litecoin - yesterday's big winner - is tumbling... And while Ethereum is up 11% still, it is roling over... Futures are underperforming spot and collapsing the arbitrage... Close up, the pressure has completely erased the Bitcoin futures premium over spot... While no immediate catalyst for the moves is obvious, we note that Interactive Brokers has allowed clients to short Bitcoin futures (with a massive $40,000 margin) and South Korea said on Wednesday it may tax capital gains from cryptocurrency trading as global regulators worried about a bubble, with Australia’s central bank chief warning of a ‘speculative mania” that has seen the digital asset making rip-roaring gains.
Резервный банк Австралии (РБА) изучает идею создать электронную версию национальной валюты. Для этого может быть использована технология блокчейн, применяемая в биткойнах. При этом руководитель центробанка Филип Лоу считает нынешнюю популярность биткойна «спекулятивной манией».
After an early slide last night following the stunning news that Doug Jones had defeated Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special election, becoming the first Democratic senator from Alabama in a quarter century and reducing the GOP's Senate majority to the absolute minimum 51-49, US equity futures have quickly rebounded and are once again in the green with the S&P index set for another record high, as European stocks ease slightly, and Asian stocks gain ahead of today's Fed rate hike and US CPI print. “The big issue now is whether Republicans will push through their tax bill before Christmas,” said Sue Trinh, head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at RBC Capital Markets in Hong Kong. “And more broadly, U.S. dollar bulls will be more worried that this marks a Democratic revival into 2018 mid-term Congressional elections.” The negative sentiment faded quick, however, because according to Bloomberg, despite the loss of a Senate seat, it probably won’t affect the expected vote on business-friendly tax cuts, however, as the winner won’t be certified until late December. Yet despite the bullish reversal in equities where the BTFD algos quickly arrived, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the first time in eight days after the Jones victory, ending its longest winning streak since January 2016. That said, the market has largely forgotten Alabama by now, and will focus on the Fed’s forward guidance as the central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, with Treasuries slipping in the London session. The USD Index is just clinging on to the 94.000 marker and paring broad basket losses made in the wake of Alabama’s election result. However, the next major directional move (towards 94.500 or 93.500) will likely come from the FOMC tonight, notwithstanding CPI data after Tuesday’s firmer than forecast PPI readings Ironically, the narrative that a Democrat won Alabama for the first time in decades is bullish for stocks did not reach Europe on time, and the continent struggled to match Asian gains as investors awaited policy decisions by central banks on the continent and in America. Most European bonds followed Treasuries lower as the dollar retreated. European stocks were fractionally lower (Stoxx 600 -0.1%) with a gain in retail shares, led by U.K. electronics retailer Dixons Carphone Plc, was offset by a drop in food and beverage companies and household goods names. Zara owner Inditex SA is among the best performers on the European gauge after signaling that sales growth is rebounding this quarter after weakening to the slowest pace in more than three years. An earlier technical problem that delayed the opening of all futures and options trading on Eurex, Europe’s largest derivatives market, has been resolved. Earlier, solid gains in Asia overnight inched MSCI’s 47-country world index up for a fifth day running and while the pre-Fed anticipation meant Europe’s main bourses were barely budged, there was action elsewhere as stocks in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong rose, while stocks in Tokyo fell. U.S. equities posted fresh all-time highs overnight after data showed signs of inflation in producer prices. Australia's ASX closed +0.1%, kept in a tight range while Japan's Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was dampened by a firmer JPY, as focus centred on the developments in US which was a blow for President Trump and effectively tightens the passage for tax reforms. Hang Seng (+1.1%) outperformed and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) was choppy as liquidity efforts by the PBoC - which injected net funds via reverse repo for a 3rd day - were counterbalanced amid the backdrop of the risk events stateside. The Alabama vote temporarily seized the spotlight away from the Fed, which will raise rates later by 25bps to between 1.25 and 1.50 percent, its third hike of the year and fifth since the financial crisis. Oppenheimer's Brian Levitt suspects the Fed will also revise up its growth forecast, adding upside risk to the “dot plot” forecasts on interest rates, though he does not expect as many hikes next year as some economists. “We are going to see a Fed that continues to attempt to tighten policy next year,” he said. “But fortunately with inflation low in the U.S. the Fed has the cover to go slowly... I know people have hopes for the tax cuts (planned by Trump), but I don’t think they will be able to push ahead with 3-4 rate hikes.” As a result, comments on the outlook for 2018 will be the focus for investors as they weigh the impact of coming policy normalization on global asset prices, while it’s anticipated that the ECB will reveal details of plans to taper asset purchases on Thursday. Meanwhile, more Brexit drama as UK PM May is being urged by some of her allies to consider the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle in order to build on her recent Brexit success, the FT reports, with the Times adding that the BoE should leave interest rates unchanged this month following November’s historic increase. Italian PM Gentiloni was on the wires saying that the next Brexit talk phase will be more challenging and called for a tailor-made trade deal between EU and UK. Separately, Labour said it will back Dominic Grieve's amendment giving Parliament a proper say on the Brexit deal if he pushes it to a vote tonight. The terms of our future are not for the government alone to determine, according to the shadow Brexit secretary Elsewhere in Europe, La Repubblica reported that Italian parties have agreed to hold elections on March 4th. With the Fed looming, global rates were largely unchanged: the yield on 10-year Treasuries increased one basis point to 2.41%, reaching the highest in almost seven weeks as 10-year Bund yields gained two basis points to 0.33%, the highest in more than a week; Britain’s 10Y Gilt yield climbed one basis point to 1.202%. In commodity markets, oil was nudging back towards two-year highs hit in the previous session on an unplanned closure of the pipeline that carries the largest volume of North Sea crude oil. Brent crude added 0.8 percent, or 51 cents, to $63.85 a barrel, after shedding 2 percent on Tuesday. U.S. crude added 0.7 percent, or 38 cents, to $57.52, after slipping 1.4 percent overnight. Gold was near its weakest level in almost five months at $1,242.18 an ounce. It is often seen as a safe-haven play and can perform poorly when central bank’s like the Fed feel confident enough to raise interest rates. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.02% to 2,668.25 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 391.17 MSCI Asia up 0.3% to 170.33 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.4% to 553.80 Nikkei down 0.5% to 22,758.07 Topix down 0.2% to 1,810.84 Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 29,222.10 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,303.04 Sensex down 0.7% to 32,999.64 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,021.83 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,480.55 German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.319% Euro up 0.08% to $1.1751 Brent Futures up 1.5% to $64.28/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 5.2 bps to 1.443% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 1.489% Brent Futures up 1.5% to $64.28/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,242.18 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.98 Top News from Bloomberg Democrat Doug Jones delivered an upset defeat to Republican Roy Moore in deep-red Alabama. Jones’s victory cuts the GOP’s Senate majority to just 51-49, which will make it harder for the party to enact its agenda; Moore says Alabama senate election ‘not over’; doesn’t concede Cutting the top individual income tax rate to 37%, setting the corporate tax rate at 21% and capping the mortgage interest deduction at loans of $750,000 or less are among the issues being considered as congressional Republicans consider last-minute revisions to key provisions in tax-overhaul legislation With many believing the a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark federal funds rate is a given, investors will focus on the Fed’s projections for future rate hikes in today’s FOMC meeting The EU warned the U.K. against rowing back on the agreements it made last week as leaders prepare to hand Britain its first reward in the Brexit negotiations China and the U.K. will assess the feasibility of a bond-trading link that would mark a fresh step in opening up the world’s third-largest debt market, according to people familiar with the matter German Social Democrat leader Martin Schulz, who last week secured an endorsement to hold talks with Merkel, has told members the party will explore a “cooperation coalition,” which would include cabinet posts for the SPD but fall short of a traditional government partnership Sentiment among chief financial officers in the U.S. advanced to a 13-year high on optimism surrounding proposed corporate-tax cuts, indicating the economy will continue to make strides next year President Trump plans to make what his staff members called a “closing argument” for tax- overhaul legislation Wednesday as congressional Republicans consider last-minute revisions to key provisions Eurozone industrial output expanded 0.2% m/m in October, beating the estimate for a flat reading Despite a recent bounce back, analysts and investors say the dollar could lose more ground against the euro and yen as the prospect of strong economic growth and tighter monetary policy outside the U.S. more than offsets higher interest rates at home U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s flagship Brexit Bill returns to the House of Commons Wednesday for a seventh day of detailed scrutiny. Conservative pro-Europeans want a line in the bill requiring the government to pass full legislation before it attempts to implement any Brexit deal it reaches with the European Union. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. is prepared to negotiate with North Korea without preconditions, but the Trump administration would first want a “quiet period” without nuclear or missile tests for discussions with Kim Jong Un’s regime to begin Asia equity markets were mostly positive on what was an indecisive trading day with the region cautious throughout most of the session ahead of the looming FOMC and amid the Alabama Senate election results, in which the GOP’s US Senate majority was trimmed to 51-49 seats after Doug Jones won the race to be the state’s first Democratic Senator in 25 years. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was kept in a tight range and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was dampened by a firmer JPY, as focus centred on the developments in US which was a blow for President Trump and effectively tightens the passage for tax reforms. Hang Seng (+1.1%) outperformed and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) was choppy as liquidity efforts by the PBoC were counterbalanced amid the backdrop of the risk events stateside. Finally, 10yr JGBs were range-bound with early support seen amid weakness in Japanese stocks and after the BoJ Rinban announcement for JPY 960bln in 1yr-10yr JGBs, although this was later pared in 2nd half of trade in which prices returned flat. PBoC injected CNY 70bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 60bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6251. CASS official Yin said Chinese interbank liquidity will remain tight until the Lunar New Year due to wealth management business restrictions and expected Fed hikes, while Yin added the solution to liquidity problems is to lower RRR. Top Asian News China Is Said to Plan U.K. Bond-Connect Joint Feasibility Study Carlsberg Says It Reaches ‘Understandings’ on Habeco Deal Talks In Europe, equities trade slightly in the red (Stoxx 600 -0.1%) with little in the way of firm direction with the reduction in the GOP’s Senate majority following Democrat Doug Jones’ victory in Alabama seeing little follow through into European trade. The FSTE MIB (-0.4%) lags its peers amid political concerns after Italian parties have agreed to hold elections on March 4th, subsequently reinvigorating concerns over the rise of anti-establishment sentiment in the nation via the 5Star movement. In terms of sector specific performance, consumer discretionary names are the notable outperformers, bolstered by Spanish heavyweight Inditex which had been up as much as 4% in the wake of their latest earning release. Another relatively tame reaction to UK data, and this time for good (fundamental) reason as the latest labour and wage update is somewhat contradictory. Gilts have slipped to a marginal new Liffe low at 124.63 (13 ticks under yesterday’s close, albeit 23 ticks below best levels seen so far) and the Short Sterling strip has reversed earlier gains of 1 tick and a tad more. However, these losses are far more contained compared to the downside seen in the Eurozone where Bunds appear to have been dragged down by more pronounced selling in peripheral bonds, and especially Italian BTPs on political jitters – president to dissolve Government at the end of the month and elections to be held in early March 2018. The 10 year German benchmark has been down to 162.91 (-36 ticks vs +13 ticks at best), while its Italian peer traded at 138.90 (-85 ticks) and the yield 5+ bp higher pushing the spread to Germany over 4 bp wider. From a tech perspective, Bunds may look towards 162.79-74 next. Elsewhere, US Treasuries are inching lower (through Tuesday’s lows) and the curve is fractionally steeper in typically defensive pre-FOMC fashion. Top European News U.K. Loses Most Jobs Since 2015 as Labor Market Shows Strain U.K. Minister Hints at Concessions to Tory Rebels: Brexit Update German Social Democrats Weigh Coalition-Lite Tie-Up With Merkel Investec Provides U.K. Fintech With $67 Million for Online Loans In FX markets, the USD Index is just clinging on to the 94.000 marker and paring broad basket losses made in the wake of Alabama’s election result. However, the next major directional move (towards 94.500 or 93.500) will likely come from the FOMC tonight, notwithstanding CPI data after Tuesday’s firmer than forecast PPI readings. GBP is Holding above lows vs the USD and EUR with GBP not swayed too much by the latest UK jobs report which saw a slightly higher unemployment rate and an unexpected uptick in ex-bonus earnings. Focus for GBP will likely continue to centre on politics with today’s parliamentary vote on the Brexit bill, with the opposition Labour Party affirming that it will side with Tory rebels wanting a say on the divorce deal. AUD continues to outperform (just) after upbeat survey news overnight (Westpac consumer index at 100+ multi-year high and sentiment rebounding to positive territory). In commodities , energy prices trade modestly higher in the wake of yesterday’s API report which showed a larger than expected drawdown in headline crude stockpiles (-7.382mln vs. Exp. -3.8mln). Elsewhere, spot gold trades with little in the way of notable direction, whilst copper has seen some support from the broadly softer USD during London trade in what was otherwise a relatively subdued session overnight for the complex. Looking at the day ahead, all eyes will be on the US with the November CPI report due out, and also the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Yellen will follow with her last press conference. Also of significance is a scheduled discussion between European parliamentarians and European Commission President Juncker and European Council President Tusk around the state of Brexit negotiations. Other data releases include the final November CPI revisions in Germany, October and November employment data in the UK, and October industrial production data for the Euro area. Finally, President Trump may speak on tax reforms today and Germany’s Merkel and SPD will also start formal coalition talks. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 4.7% 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2% 8:30am: US CPI YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.0%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8% 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.38%; 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision 2:30pm: Yellen Holds Her Final Press Conference Following FOMC Meeting 6pm: Fed’s Brainard Makes Opening Remarks at Awards Ceremony DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A pretty big day ahead with US CPI and Yellen’s last press conference and the associated latest Fed economic projections (including the dots) overshadowing what is now a near slam dunk US rate hike. With regards to inflation, the house view is that inflation trends are beginning to firm and should continue in today’s CPI for both headline (0.4% mom vs. 0.1% previously) as well as core (0.2% mom vs. 0.2%). Watch out for those three decimal place numbers which are all in vogue at the moment as inflation holds the key to pretty much everything in 2018. Prints in line with DB forecasts would boost the six-month annualized change in core CPI about 25 bps over October’s number of 1.8%, which would provide further evidence of firming inflation. Staying on inflation the US’s November core PPI (ex food and energy) was above market yesterday at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2% expected), while the annual increase of 2.4% yoy was in line. Our US economists noted the healthcare component of PPI - which is highly correlated with the healthcare component of the core PCE deflator – rose a solid 0.15% mom. In the UK, the headline November CPI was above expectations at 0.3% mom (vs. 0.2% expected), but the core annual CPI was in line and steady at 2.7% yoy – the highest since 2012. The core PPI was also in line at 2.2% yoy while the closely watched Sweden’s CPI was above market at 1.9% yoy (vs. 1.7% expected). All this came on a day where Brent futures initially rallied to $65.83 on the previous day’s news of the crack shutting down a North Sea oil pipeline, but then reversed those gains to close 1.31% lower to $63.84/bbl. Elsewhere, the Jan 18 futures on UK natural gas prices jumped as much as 20% following an explosion at an Austrian hub, but closed c11% higher after news that natural gas flows in Europe are expected to resume soon. So it’s been a big 24 hours for all things price related and with today’s US inflation report, this is set to continue. As for the FOMC meeting, the main focus will be on the messaging around the outlook for rate increases in 2018 and beyond. Although our economists recently shifted to expecting four rate increases next year, they think it is likely too early for this message to be solidified in a higher median “dot” for 2018. However, they still expect the signal from the meeting to be that with growthwell above potential, the labour market at full employment, record easy financial conditions, rising odds of fiscal stimulus, and early evidence that inflation is recovering, a gradual pace of rate hikes is warranted, and indeed risks have risen somewhat that the Fed could need to move more aggressively. They think this could be reflected in some upward migration in the dots, revisions to growth and unemployment forecasts, and the overall tone from the statement and press conference. The interpretation should be that if the economy remains broadly in line with the Fed’s and DB’s forecasts, tightening once per quarter should continue, with the next rate increase likely in March. Given Mrs Yellen’s history of being a team player and a consensus builder one would imagine her last press conference will not see any surprises left for her successor though. In the US, momentum on the tax plans appears to be going reasonably well. The House Ways and Means Chairman Brady noted the conference panel could deliver the written agreement on the final tax legislations by Friday, noting “we’re on track for this week”. Looking ahead, the House Majority leader McCarthy told GOP members that the goal is for the House to vote on the reconciled tax bill next Tuesday (19th December), which is also confirmed by Senator Reed of NY, who noted “the time frame of a vote next week is very realistic”. Elsewhere, the final bill is evolving but some of the compromises noted by Washington Post include: i) mortgage deduction limit of $750k, ii) corporate tax rate of 21% and iii) top individual tax rate of 37%. We shall find out the details soon. Staying in the US, Doug Jones will be the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Alabama in almost 25 years. With c98% of precincts reporting, the Associated Press projects Jones as the winner with 49.5% of the votes versus 48.8% for the Republican candidate Mr Moore. Mr Jones is scheduled to take office before 3 January, so should not scuttle the tax votes too much if they proceed to plan but it could if delayed to 2018. Once the potential win is confirmed, it will reduce the Republican’s Senate majority to a thin margin of 51-49 (from 52-48) and could impact the prospects of future bills being passed. CNN noted that one in every 20 votes so far this year in the Senate would have had a different outcome if just one vote had flipped to the opposite side. This morning in Asia, markets are mixed ahead of the upcoming central bank meetings. The Kospi (+0.50%), China's CSI 300 (+0.41%) and Hang Seng (+1.08%) is up modestly, while the Nikkei (-0.55%) is down as we type. Elsewhere, the US dollar index is down 0.2% following the Alabama voting developments while WTI oil is trading c0.7% higher after API data showed US crude stockpiles dropped for the fourth week. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. US equities broadly rose to fresh highs following further progress on the tax bill, although gains were pared back after Senator Paul tweeted “I cannot in good conscience vote to add more to the already massive $20trn debt”. The S&P (+0.15%) and Dow (+0.49%) both rose modestly while Nasdaq dipped -0.19%. Within the S&P, gains in the telco and financials sector were partly offset by losses from utilities and energy stocks. European markets also trended higher, with Stoxx 600 up +0.66% to the highest in three months – supported by energy and tech stocks. Across the region, key bourses rose c0.5% (DAX +0.46%; FTSE +0.63%) while Spain’s IBEX fell 0.18%. The VIX rose for the first time in six days to 9.92 (+6.2%). Following the aforementioned UK CPI and US PPI stats, government bonds weakened with core yields up 1-2bp (UST 10yr +1.3bp; Bunds & Gilts +2.1bp), while peripherals underperformed with yields up 4-5bp. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index firmed 0.23%, while Euro and Sterling fell 0.23% and 0.17% respectively. In commodities, precious metals edged c0.2% higher (Gold +0.20%; Silver +0.13%) while other base metals were mixed but also little changed (Copper +0.56%; Zinc +1.11%; Aluminium -0.70%). Away from the markets and onto Brexit where the rhetoric continues. The EU Chief negotiator Barnier cautioned the UK against reneging on the agreements made last Friday, noting “we will not accept any backtracking from the UK”. Elsewhere, the EU Parliament lawmaker Guy Verhofstadt tweeted that it was time for the UK government to “restore trust” after the “unacceptable remarks” by Brexit Secretary Davis who noted the Brexit deal last week was more of a “statement of intent”. Nonetheless, the draft European Council guidelines seems to suggests trade talks between UK and EU could formally start in March 2018 as it noted “….the EC will continue to follow the (Brexit) negotiations closely and adopt additional guidelines in March 2018, in particular as regards the framework for the future relationship”. Finally, Australia’s central bank governor Lowe has also added to the debate on Bitcoin. He noted “the current fascination with these currencies feels more like a speculative mania than it has to with their use as an efficient and convenient form of electronic payment”. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the November NFIB small business optimism index was above market at 107.5 (vs. 104 expected) – the highest reading since 1983. In the UK, the RPI was slightly below expectations at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.3%) and 3.9% yoy (vs. 4.0%). In Europe, the December ZEW survey on expectations was slightly below the prior month’s reading at 29 (vs. 30.9 previous). In Germany, the ZEW survey on current situations was above market at 89.3 (vs. 88.7 expected) but expectations were a tad below market at 17.4 (vs. 18 expected). Looking at the day ahead, all eyes will be on the US with the November CPI report due out, and also the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting. Fed Chair Yellen will follow with her last press conference. Also of significance is a scheduled discussion between European parliamentarians and European Commission President Juncker and European Council President Tusk around the state of Brexit negotiations. Other data releases include the final November CPI revisions in Germany, October and November employment data in the UK, and October industrial production data for the Euro area. Finally, President Trump may speak on tax reforms today and Germany’s Merkel and SPD will also start formal coalition talks.
FX Weekly Preview: Looking For A Rise In Vol As The Fed Finally Makes Their Move - So We Can All Move On
Submitted by Rajan Dhall MSTA and Shant Movsesian from fxdailyterminal.com In the absence of key economic data, we tend to see heightened levels of containment in the FX markets, where the heavy presence of system (algo) traders require constant direction in order to drive price action one way or the other. We have also been in a period of stasis given the prospect of a Dec rate hike from the Fed next week, and one which we feel the market is looking to fade given there is less momentum in the US economy to generate the three (more) hikes the Fed dot plot has been suggesting. Caught between a rock and a hard place, ranges in the key major pairings have been exceptionally tight, albeit with some notable adjustments in previous months. Now that EUR/USD has moved up into a fresh range after breaking above the 1.1500-1.1700 area, the market has naturally tried to push as far as it can, with the positive longer term outlook on the Euro zone driving the single currency higher almost as a 'default' mode. Having reached the 1.2000 objective for this year, the prospects for levels closer to 1.2500 next year have driven the familiar overstretch we are used to seeing in the market these days, but we clearly need to undergo a period of consolidation to see who we progress from here, and above 1.2000, the market has been fading some of this over-enthusiasm for now. There are also interest rate differentials to consider, and from the start of the year, the US curve has lost ground to tighten spreads, though safe haven demand for German paper distorts this traditional backdrop, which in effect maintains a level of uncertainty in the efficacy of ECB policy for the region as a whole. Price action here will largely be dictated by the US perspective, and alongside the FOMC announcement Wednesday night, we also have key inflation data as well as consumer spending to consider, with production stats thrown into the mix at the end of the week. We will naturally get a better picture on how the market views the USD going forward through USD/JPY and USD/CHF, and the cautious nature of the gains seen in the past week or so further signal to us that the USD upturn of late remains corrective more than anything else. For all the focus on tax reform, we saw a mute response to the Senate vote to the Tax cut bill, which will continue to come under scrutiny as we look to agreement between House and Senate, but more so on the supposed economic pass through this will generate, which has drawn plenty of scepticism. Key levels vs the JPY remain in the 114.00-115.00 area, and next week may well see this tested along with parity+ against the CHF. Those fading gains will point to the limited upside in long end US yields, which have already slipped this year, as well as the ever present deficit concerns - no surprise then that the light balance sheet reduction process has swiftly faded out of general attention. The ECB also meet next week, but given the much awaited tapering announcement has already been made, this is largely a non event which should pass without much fuss this time around. Expect more optimism in the economic outlook, but he plenty of this from no end of ECB speakers on a weekly basis, so we continue to watch the data series from the key member states. Germany's ZEW survey for Dec should tame a little, as did production (including orders) and trade last week, with manufacturing PMIs for the EU (as well as Germany also due. As above, it will take a notable period of weakness here to dislodge the embedded positive view in the market at present. For GBP, it should be a very interesting week ahead with the Brexit saga mixed in with the BoE meeting and some key data releases. The algos' made hay' on a constant stream of ups and downs in the lead up to the agreement in principle on the key issues which it needed to satisfy in EU negotiators to propose a move on to phase 2 talks at the EU Summit this week. This was highlighted by the modest pullback in the Pound after we got the confirmation on Friday. No more fun and games in this respect from hereon out however, as we have to look at what PM May and Brexit minister have actually achieved. Based on the fact that all now hinges on how the trade talks develop - and this is the hard part - the initial agreements will count for nothing unless the UK feel they can get a favourable trade deal. Over the weekend, EU trade partners have made their unease over a 'special deal' known to the (EU) commission, and the 27 member union are already expected to take a hard stance. Any ideas or hopes of a 'bespoke' agreement from the UK still look overly optimistic, and David Davis has admitted this weekend that the agreement is more a 'statement of intent'. The agreement is not 'legally enforceable' so in effect, the 'deal' is not binding. As we have noted throughout the GBP rise, we have achieved relatively little in terms of actual progress in the talks themselves, and in turn, we expect the Pound to give back some of these gains unless we get some significantly positive data on jobs and retail sales, while Tuesday's inflation report will also be interesting as a backdrop to the BoE announcement later in the week - another non event on the face of it, but we have seen the market move erratically to rate projections from the MPC. Cable topped out in the mid 1.3500's last week, but we still need to see levels below 1.300 before we can cement this on any notable time frame. At the same time, EUR/GBP has dropped to new lows just under 0.8700, but the reversal was emphatic, though not enough to suggest the EUR side of the equation could not take it a little lower, but on balance, the momentum under the lows looks unlikely to develop based on what we have seen so far. GBP/JPY is also pretty vulnerable given strong buying here seen in the past few months, and will have in itself been supportive to the spot JPY rate recently. For the JPY itself, plenty more data to give us a sense of the level of recovery from the export perspective - manufacturing PMIs, industrial production, the Tankan indices and machinery orders all offering an insight into whether this can continue to prop up growth and expansion which is currently on a positive run. It is however the focus on consumer spending and the follow through on inflation which continues to dominate government and BoJ thinking, and JPY weakness naturally 'plays its part'. More evidence of positioning against the JPY last week, and this will continue as part of the carry trade theme which is egged on by yet more gains seen in the major global stock indices!The CHF is also getting pushed lower on the back of this premise, and much to the contentment of the SNB who also meet this week. Gov Jordan and Co will continue to cite the Franc as 'highly valued' and will keep the base rate at +0.75% accordingly. For the AUD, traders are watching this 0.7450-0.7500 area with keen interest as it could determine a break in the longer term cycle higher. There are current reasons to keep the pressure on the mining/commodity based currency, though not on commodity prices themselves. From the economic perspective, inflation has fallen out of the RBA's target range, and despite a low level of concern within the board, is proving a clear negative with wage growth also tame. Add to that a drop in the trade balance and the prospect of a tech based break back to the upside remains unlikely as yet, but we have the NAB business survey next week ahead Nov employment report, which could tip the balance to some degree. Good to see however that the GDP miss of 0.7% for Q3 to print just a tenth lower was effectively dismissed, given an annualised growth rate of 2.8% is nothing to scoff at in this environment! Business confidence is what has knocked the NZD in the past few weeks, but forgotten all too quickly as focus on the AUD took the cross rate back under 1.1000 again to keep NZD/USD camped in the mid 0.6800's for now. The new Labour led coalition is clearly behind this nervousness in the business community, and despite the latest budget and debt forecasts to be delivered next week, any surpluses (if) announced will should have a limited impact compared to those released in the summer given the change in government and what they do with it. Finally in Canada, BoC gov Poloz is speaking again in the week, and this will be another prompt for CAD traders given little tier 1 data to consider. Irrespective of whether there was any other data, this would still be the primary factor, as the BoC statement failed to live up to the hype after the employment report the week before last, as well as seeing GDP levels at an annualised 3.0%. Even so, the market will continue to push for 1.2900+, but once again, it is all about the USD and momentum above here should be limited despite the restrained BoC speak on rates, which the market over-reacted to in the first instance after the second 25bp hike at the start of Sep.
Australia's GDP grows at slower pace on weak growth in consumer spending.
Сегодня Резервный банк Австралии (РБА) сохранил ключевую ставку на уровне 1,50% годовых. В решении Центробанка, которое было опубликовано в 6:30 (GMT+3), указано, что экономическая ситуация в стране улучшается, наблюдается рост занятости, что в свою очередь должно привести к росту заработной плате. РБА прогнозирует, что в 2018 году австралийская экономика выйдет на траекторию стабильного роста в 3%. Читать больше обзоров: https://alpari.com/ru/analytics/reviews/ Альпари - крупный международный финансовый бренд, владельцем которого является российский предприниматель Андрей Дашин. Alpari was founded in 1998 and today is one of the largest brands in the global Forex industry, owned by russian entrepreneur Andrey Dashin. Международный форекс-брокер Альпари: https://alpari.com/ru/ Российский лицензированный форекс-дилер: https://www.alpariforexdealer.ru/ Белорусский лицензированный форекс-дилер: https://www.alpari.by/ Благотворительный фонд Альпари: https://alpari-charity.ru/ Фонд Андрея и Юлии Дашиных: http://www.dashinfoundation.org/ru/ Альпари в социальных сетях: VK: https://vk.com/alpari_forex Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/AlpariRU Google+: https://plus.google.com/+AlpariWs?hl=ru Twitter: https://twitter.com/RUAlpari OK: https://ok.ru/forexalpari Телеграмм: https://t.me/alpariltd Viber: http://chats.viber.com/alpariltd/+/ru
One look at S&P futures this morning reveals an unchanged market, however it is again the violent sector rotation that is taking place behind the scenes that is the real story, with defensive sectors real estate, retail, food, utilities outperforming while investors continue to bail and book profits on tech stocks after sharp gains since the start of the year. Monday's Nasdaq rout also spread to European and Asian markets which fall on last minute changes to the tax plan, most notably the retaining of AMT which could prevent companies from making use of intellectual property tax breaks, effectively raising their tax rates. As a reminder, on Monday the Nasdaq fell 1.2% following broad based hedge fund liquidation from the most crowded sector, after tax experts said Senate Republicans unwittingly passed a bill that would mean higher-than-intended taxes for technology firms and other corporations; in sympathy Europe's Stoxx tech sector index SX8P hit the lowest since late September, down 8% since mid-November European stocks dipped, trimming the previous session’s sharp gains amid a renewed selloff in tech stocks globally and as weaker industrial metal prices weighed on mining shares which slumped “due to a marked slowdown in China’s metal consumption growth, with market participants foreseeing weaker public infrastructure spending growth extending into 2018,” SP Angel analysts including John Meyer, Simon Beardsmore and Sergey Raevskiy write in note. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.2%, remaining in a range between its 50-DMA and 200-DMA started in mid-November. The Stoxx tech sector SX8P index falls 0.6%, mirroring a drop in the Nasdaq Monday. As noted above, Europe's tec sector is down about 8% since a peak in early November, amid a sharp sector rotation out of momentum stocks and into potential winners of the U.S. tax reform. UK's FTSE 100 outperforms peers amid the weaker pound which had briefly tripped through 1.34 as Brexit talks had been unravelled over disagreements from the DUP in regards to a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. UK grocery retailers are among the top movers in the FTSE 100 after a positive note from Goldman Sachs. Elsewhere, to the downside, health care and material names lag. Another sharp drop in UK car buying also dampened the mood though analysts said the pound's drop might only be temporary. “The immediate fallout should be limited as markets have become well versed with the idea that Brexit won’t be solved overnight,” said ING. “We remain constructive on GBP.” Earlier, benchmark indexes fluctuated in Tokyo, while shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai fell even as a report showed China’s service sector expanded more firmly last month than in October. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were negative as tech names tracked the weakness of their US counterparts. Hang Seng (-1.0%) was also subdued by tech woes, while Shanghai Comp (-0.2%) traded indecisive after encouraging Caixin Services and Composite PMIs were counterbalanced by continued PBoC inaction, which resulted to net daily drain of CNY 170bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre with demand sapped amid a 10yr auction, which showed weaker demand and lower accepted prices than prior. In macro, sterling continued to weaken, at one point triggering stops below 1.34, as Brexit talks continued to resolve the Irish border question and retail sales and services data disappointed. The euro pared losses as indicators showed economic momentum accelerated to its fastest pace in over six years in November. The early blitz of European data included the best Spanish industrial production numbers in 14 months a rebound in Italy’s services sector, a private sector jump in Sweden and signs of a hiring boom in France. Most European government bonds rose, with Greek bonds outperforming after progress on the country’s bailout. The Australian dollar strengthens to a three-week high on stronger-than-expected retail sales data and after the central bank signaled inflation is set to quicken. Overnight, the RBA kept the Cash Rate at a record low 1.50% as expected and reiterated it judged steady policy is consistent with growth and inflation targets, and while noting that wage growth remains weak, the RBA said that “some employers are finding it more difficult to hire workers with the necessary skills”. Furthermore, the central bank repeated that rising AUD would slow economy and inflation, while it also commented that forecast remains for inflation to increase gradually and that the outlook for non-mining business investment further improved. RBNZ Acting Governor Spencer said should be cautious on making any recommendations for changes to current policy framework and that there remains broad confidence in effectiveness of current framework. Spencer also commented that weak global inflation is assumed to persist in line with the forecasts of the international institutions, which now puts some risk on the upside for inflationand interest rates. Going back to the tax bill and the reason behind the tech rout, Bloomberg explained that as amended, the Senate tax bill would preserve the existing 20 percent corporate alternative minimum tax, a levy designed to stymie companies’ tax avoidance that applies to fewer than 1 percent of U.S. companies under current law. But under the Senate plan, retaining the AMT could prevent companies from making use of planned tax breaks related to intellectual property, to spending on new equipment and to research and development. The AMT may fall hardest on technology and utilities companies -- though the snag would apply broadly, experts say. “The fact is, almost everyone who’s a corporate taxpayer is going to be an AMT taxpayer” under the bill, said Bret Wells, a tax law professor at the University of Houston. In the U.S., House and Senate lawmakers are now poised to begin working on compromise tax-overhaul legislation -- a key step in their drive to send a bill with tax cuts for corporations and individuals to President Donald Trump by the end of the year. A global stock rally that has led indexes to record highs has stalled so far this month as investors lock in profits in tech stocks, the year’s best performers, and switch to firms seen benefiting most from a potential reduction in the corporate tax rate such as banks. “It’s been noticeable that there has been a distinct sector rotation over the last week which is impacting the momentum of the market,” Jim Reid, global head of credit strategy at Deutsche Bank AG in London, wrote in a note to clients. In bond markets, U.S. Treasuries were still lingering below 2.4%, while the euro zone data and signs the ECB’s bond buying continues to have favorites cut Italian-German spread to its smallest in more than a year. France and Italy each enjoyed ECB purchases last month that were nearly a billion euros above their ‘capital key’ at 10.439 billion euros and 9.077 billion euros. “The latest ECB buying data underscores the flexibility of the scheme that tends to benefit the periphery,” said Commerzbank rates strategist Christoph Rieger. The day’s other significant moves came in metal markets on a retreat. Copper, which is often jumpy around key China data, dropped over 2 percent to a near two-month low. Nickel took a similar hit and zinc dropped 1 percent. That was despite UBS raising its forecast for electric vehicles, which eventually led to an upgrade in the 2020-2021 nickel outlook. However, the Swiss brokerage warned there remained at a vast inventory pile of the metal and its ore. Crude prices softened further this morning with investors weighing the impact of rising US output in light of last week’s deal between OPEC and Non-OPEC members; WTI extended losses below $58 a barrel before U.S. government data forecast to show crude stockpiles decreased for a third week. Energy newsflow for energy markets remains light with markets looking ahead to an expected decline in inventories in the API report. Some market players fear the killing of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh on Monday may destabilize the impoverished and worn-torn country even further, threatening the safety of a major shipping route through the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb on the Red Sea off the Yemeni coast. In the precious metals complex, gold prices have held within a tight range with support from a slightly weaker USD. Elsewhere, base metals prices saw some modest softness overnight despite encouraging Chinese data amid touted profit-taking. Looking at the day ahead, a fairly packed day for data including the final November services and composite PMIs in Europe and the US. Also, in the US, the October trade balance and November ISM non-manufacturing will be out (59 expected). Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,637.50 MSCI Asia down 0.07% to 169.67 MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.3% to 551.75 Nikkei down 0.4% to 22,622.38 Topix up 0.2% to 1,790.97 Hang Seng Index down 1% to 28,842.80 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,303.68 Sensex down 0.2% to 32,815.64 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,971.82 Kospi up 0.3% to 2,510.12 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 386.80 German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.325% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1853 Italian 10Y yield unchanged at 1.452% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.403% Brent Futures down 0.3% to $62.29/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,275.93 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% at 93.13 Top Overnight news One of the last-minute, late-night changes Senate Republicans made to their tax-overhaul plan may mean higher taxes for corporations, including technology firms, than the bill’s drafters intended, experts say. U.S. House votes to go to conference with Senate to reconcile tax bills A divided U.S. Supreme Court let President Donald Trump’s travel ban take full effect while legal challenges go forward, handing him a major victory and suggesting the court ultimately will uphold the restrictions Special prosecutor Robert Mueller zeroed in on President Donald Trump’s business dealings with Deutsche Bank AG as his investigation into alleged Russian meddling in U.S. elections widens Theresa May came closer than ever on Monday to the Brexit deal she’s been working on for months. A last-minute upset over the Irish border left all parties embarrassed and doesn’t bode well for a second run at a breakthrough; no meeting planned between PM May and DUP leader Foster today, according to people familiar European Union finance ministers will discuss the U.S. plan to slash taxes at a meeting in Brussels Tuesday and whether the new plan violates international trade rules Geopolitics: Saudi Arabia says U.S. administration’s intention to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital could have “grave consequences”; Turkish President Erdogan calls Jerusalem a red line RBA keeps rate unchanged; notes non-mining outlook improvement, says inflation likely to pick up as economy strengthens OPEC crude production dropped again in November to a six-month low of 32.47 million barrels a day as Angola led declines The inflation miss is likely to trouble Marvin Goodfriend, President Donald Trump’s latest nominee to serve as a Fed Board governor, say people who know him, and he is the kind of scholar who will seek innovative ways to address it Trump’s legal team says it’s no longer a question of whether Trump’s firing of FBI director James Comey could be considered obstruction of justice; they now say it’s impossible for the president to be charged with that crime at all Brevan Howard AM is readying two funds to bet on a recovery in Greek assets as it branches out to stem an investor exodus European Nov. Service PMIs: Spain 54.4 vs 55.0 est; Italy 4.7 vs 53.2 est; France 60.4 vs 60.2 est; Germany 54.3 vs 54.9 est; U.K. 53.8 vs 55.0 est; Markit note wage pressures within Italy, France and German service sectors; Eurozone November composite PMI 57.5 vs flash reading 57.5 China November Caixin Services PMI 51.9 vs 51.2 prev. U.K. services PMI fell to 53.8 in November, from 55.6 in October as price pressures intensified Asia equity markets were subdued following a similar close on Wall St where the S&P 500 and DJIA pulled back from intraday record levels and tech underperformed as rotation out of the sector resumed. ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) were negative as tech names tracked the weakness of their US counterparts. Hang Seng (-1.0%) was also subdued by tech woes, while Shanghai Comp. (-0.2%) traded indecisive after encouraging Caixin Services and Composite PMIs were counterbalanced by continued PBoC inaction, which resulted to net daily drain of CNY 170bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre with demand sapped amid a 10yr auction, which showed weaker demand and lower accepted prices than prior. In overnight Chinese data, the Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Nov) printed 51.9 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.2); Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Nov) 51.6 (Prev. 51.0); More notably, the PBoC skipped open market operations again for a third day, for a net daily drain of CNY 170bln. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6113 (Prev. 6.6105). Top Asian News Foreign Investors Find Handful of Gems Among Shenzhen Stocks China Large Caps Jump as Investors Shy Away From Riskier Stocks India Govt Cash Position Was ’Somewhat Stressed’ in 2Q: Finmin FamilyMart Uny Is Said to Mull Sale of Hong Kong Retail Business Wary China Eyes U.S. Tax Cut as Currency Risk and Reform Chance European bourses relatively mixed this morning. FTSE 100 outperforms peers amid the weaker pound which had briefly tripped through 1.34 as Brexit talks had been unravelled over disagreements from the DUP in regards to a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. UK grocery retailers are among the top movers in the FTSE 100 after a positive note from Goldman Sachs. Elsewhere, to the downside, health care and material names lag. Amidst ongoing doubts about a Brexit deal in time for the mid-month EU Summit, some evidence of investor caution via the latest 6 year cash offering that was only just twice oversubscribed and came with a 0.3 bp tail. However, the 10 year benchmark future is maintaining the bulk of its recovery gains and holding near the top of its trading parameters as Bunds inch up again to probe a marginal new Eurex high at 163.49. Market contacts flag another upside chart hole to plug up to 163.54, and if follow through buying lifts prices through 163.58 then stops could carry the core German bond up towards 163.73 before any revisit of last Friday’s 163.92 Dec17 contract best. Elsewhere, US Treasuries also grinding high and recouping overnight losses, just. Top European News BOE Discussed Unexpected Increase in Banks’ Buffers on Brexit Tod’s, Moncler Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, LVMH Downgraded In FX, another ‘deadline’ day failure to secure an EU divorce agreement has pushed the Pound off its lofty pedestal, with Cable now testing support around 1.3380 having rallied to within striking distance of recent peaks (1.3550). From a USD perspective, aside from recovery gains vs Sterling, the Dollar has lost some of its US tax reform bullish momentum, as the Index consolidates on comeback gains in the low 93.000s. USD/JPY back below 113.00 and rangebound between 112.30-70 after light bids noted near the overnight base, while offers are said to be housed from 113.00-10. Elsewhere, a fillip overnight for both antipodeans, as Australian retail sales data beat consensus (RBA unchanged and not much new in terms of forward guidance) and RBNZ Governor Stevens said that the persistence of low global inflation poses risks to the upside for prices and rates. AUD/USD back up near 0.7650 and NZD/USD just under 0.6900 having briefly reclaimed big figure-plus status at one stage. Note, option expiries from 0.7645 to 0.7655-60 (600 and 300 mn approx.), and in the 0.6825/0.6900 strikes (circa 350 and 390 mn respectively). In currencies, crude prices softer this morning with investors weighing the impact of rising US output in light of last week’s deal between OPEC and Non-OPEC members. Energy newsflow for energy markets remains light with markets looking ahead to an expected decline in inventories in the API report. In the precious metals complex, gold prices have held within a tight range with support from a slightly weaker USD. Elsewhere, base metals prices saw some modest softness overnight despite encouraging Chinese data amid touted profit-taking. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $47.5b deficit, prior $43.5b deficit 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 54.7 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.6 10am: ISM Non- Manf. Composite, est. 59, prior 60.1 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap As the S&P 500 (-0.11%) reversed strong gains from the opening (+0.87% at the day’s early highs), it's been noticeable that there has been a distinct sector rotation over the last week which is impacting the momentum of the market. The NASDAQ fell -1.05% yesterday and more recently, the ‘FANG’ names have sold off -5.61% in last 5 sessions and were -1.83% lower yesterday. Within the S&P, the IT sector fell -1.93% and has fallen -3.9% over the same 5 days and is at c5 week lows. Meanwhile Telecoms (+1.60%) and US Financials (+1.55%) were the star performers yesterday and are now up 7.99% and 6.84% respectively over the last 5 days. For Financials the rally seemed to coincide with incoming Fed Chair Mr Powell confirming his belief that bank regulation shouldn’t go any further and also with momentum building that the tax reform package would pass the senate. The sector is at the highest level since October 2007. Elsewhere, Telcos were seen as big beneficiaries from proposed corporate tax cuts. So there’s a fair bit going on internally in US equities at the moment. There’s also a fair bit going on with regards to Brexit this week and yesterday was an emotional rollercoaster for everyone involved and those following it. To cut a long story short, hopes built throughout the day that a deal had been reached. However these hopes were dashed c.40 minutes before the European close, most likely because of the Irish question and possibly because of the minutiae around the ECJ powers. The DUP party seem to be the biggest roadblock as they want Northern Ireland to leave on the same terms as the rest of the UK. This seemed to put pay to the idea that the UK could offer some kind of special case scenario to avoid a hard border. Given the DUP effectively prop up the minority UK government, it’s a fascinating one. Do the Conservative Party play hard ball and gamble on the DUP folding knowing that the alternative is fresh elections and them likely losing their power? Or is there a political compromise coming after posturing and a brief cooling off period? It might be that today’s UK cabinet meeting is a chance for Mrs May to regroup and get the authority to move in either direction. The most likely scenario is we do get a compromise this week to at least postpone this hard decision on Ireland to allow talks to progress. However it really is getting close to make or break. If no compromise is possible it could be difficult for the current administration to continue and new elections could be around the corner in the NY. So a pivotal week still. The GBPUSD also went on a mini roller coaster ride yesterday, initially up c0.9% and then falling back down c0.9% before inching higher to close broadly flat for the day. Across the pond, the reconciliation of the House and Senate’s versions of the tax bill is likely to formally start this week once the conference committee members are named. Overnight, the House has named nine Republican and five Democrat lawmakers. However, the Senate will take “a couple of days” to appoint its members because of Senate procedures. Elsewhere, the Richmond Fed has confirmed they had chosen Thomas Barkin from McKinsey & Co as the institutions next President. Mr Barkin is a senior partner and chief risk officer at Mckinsey and is a 30 year veteran at the firm. Bloomberg noted the appointment may be controversial as Mr Barkin has plenty of consulting experience but has no background in monetary policy making. Note the Richmond’s President willbe a FOMC voter in 2018. Elsewhere, given how topical the low vol environment is, DB’s equity derivative strategy team yesterday published their 2018 outlook called ‘O’VIX Spikes Where Art Thou?’ They find it difficult to argue for a regime change for now with bullish drivers for US equities in place and robust global growth anticipated. They expect equity vol in the US to remain relatively subdued - albeit above current levels - in Q1 next year and forecast the VIX to average 12-14 during the quarter. That said, they caveat that the market could see spikes in the range of 18-20 in H1, above the high of 16 in 2017. However in their view these spikes would be the cause of higher average volatility, rather than slowing economic growth. That said they do also highlight a few factors that have changed throughout 2017 and point to greater volatility spike potential going forward. This includes; (1) A greater risk of a 5% pullback for the S&P 500 (based on DB’s Binky Chadha’s 2018 US equity outlook) which can be intensified by crowded carry trades, (2) Short vol positioning which has grown and rapid de-risking which would exacerbate a downturn, (3) Leverage continuing to build in the long-running bull market and low levels of cash in retail accounts, (4) Less investor protection to limit losses after the pain trade of burning through options premiums in the rally. You can find the link to the report here. This morning in Asia, markets are mixed but little changed. The Kospi (+0.21%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.44%) are both up modestly, while the Hang Seng (-0.45%) and Nikkei (-0.18%) are down as we type. China’s November Caixin composite PMI was slightly above last month at 51.6 (vs. 51) while Japan’s Nikkei composite PMI retreated from October’s five month high to 52.2 (vs. 53.4 previous). Elsewhere, the US Supreme Court has let President Trump’s travel ban to take effect while the case is on appeal. The ban will allow Trump to restrict the entry of those people from countries such as Iran, Syria, Chad, Somalia, Libya, Yemen and North Korea. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. European equities were broadly higher, up 0.5%-1.5% in key markets and largely reversing Friday’s losses. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (+0.91%), CAC (+1.36%), FTSE (+0.53%) and DAX (+1.53%) all advanced, with the latter up the most for c5 weeks, likely helped by increased prospects of forming the next coalition government. The VIX rose for the sixth consecutive day to 11.68 (+2.2%). Government bonds sold off modestly, reversing much of the changes on Friday. The UST 10y yields was up 1.1bp, while core European bond yields were up 4-5bp (Bunds +3.8bp; OATs +4.2bp; Gilts +5.4bp) and peripherals were little changed. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index and Sterling gained 0.22% and 0.02% respectively while the Euro weakened 0.25%. In commodities, WTI oil fell 1.53% as some investors were concerned that the higher oil price may induce more supply from US shale assets. Elsewhere, precious metal weakened slightly (Gold -0.35%; Silver -0.74%) and other base metals were little changed (Copper +0.08%; Aluminium -0.31%; Zinc -0.76%). Higher grade Iron ore jumped 3.67% (c24% since 31 Oct) and is up for the fifth consecutive day with prices continuing to benefit from higher demand from Chinese steel mills. Away from markets and back to Germany. The prospects of forming a new coalition government appear to be higher with the National leadership of the SPD endorsing “open ended” talks with Ms Merkel’s Party to explore “whether and in which form the SPD can support a new federal government” and that we’ll conduct these talks “without prejudging the outcome”. Staying in politics, House minority leader Ms Pelosi and Senate minority leader Mr Schumer have rescheduled their cancelled meeting and will meet with President Trump on Thursday to discuss the federal spending deal to avoid a partial US government shutdown. Finally, the latest ECB holdings were released yesterday. Net CSPP purchases last week were €1.4bn and Net PSPP purchases €10.9bn. This left the CSPP/ PSPP ratio at 12.8% last week (14.1% over last 4 weeks vs. 11.5% before QE was trimmed in April 2017). We still think the ECB will likely keep CSPP relatively unscathed when they halve their APP in January. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the macro data was modestly above expectations. The October factory orders fell less than expected, at -0.1% mom (vs. -0.4% expected) and the prior reading was revised upwards by 0.3ppt. Elsewhere, the final reading for the October durable goods orders was also above market at -0.8% mom (vs. -1.1% expected), along with core capital goods orders at 0.3% mom (vs. -0.5% previous), leading to annual growth of 9.3% yoy. In Europe, the October PPI was a touch higher than expectations at 0.4% mom (vs. 0.3%), but the prior reading was revised down by 0.1ppt. Elsewhere, the Sentix investor confidence for December fell from last month’s decade high to a still solid level of 31.1 (vs. 33.4 expected). Investors appear to be a little more positive about the current situation but a bit less positive about the outlook. Looking at the day ahead, a fairly packed day for data including the final November services and composite PMIs in Europe and the US. Also, in the US, the October trade balance and November ISM non-manufacturing will be out (59 expected).
Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона закрылись со снижением после того, как цены на нефть упали более чем на 1%, а переговоры по Brexit зашли в тупик. Премьер- министру Великобритании Тереза Мэй так и не удалось договориться о начале торговых переговоров с ЕС. Она покинула Брюссель, после того как Демократическая юнионистская партия заявила о том, что не потерпит, чтобы Северная Ирландия после Brexit оказалась в условиях, отличающихся от условий для остальной Великобритании. Китайские акции закрылись со снижением, даже несмотря на то, что результаты опроса IHS Markit показали, что темпы роста сектора услуг в стране улучшились в ноябре. Индекс деловой активности сектора услуг Китая от Markit/Caixin вырос до 51,6 с 16-месячного минимума октября 51,0, что говорит о стабильности китайской экономики. Котировки на Токийской фондовой бирже упали, так как акции технологических компании Японии поддались сильному давлению со стороны продаж аналогичных компаний на Уолл-стрит . Сталевары JFE Holdings, Kobe Steel и Nisshin Steel увеличили капитализацию на 2-3%. Акции Nidec подорожали на 1,2% после сообщения, что компания создаст совместное предприятие с французским автопроизводителем PSA для производства двигателей для электромобилей. Австралийские акции закрылись со снижением, после того, как Резервный банк Австралии оставил процентную ставку на уровне 1,5% 16-тый месяц подряд, как и ожидалось, ссылаясь на низкий рост заработной платы и пониженную инфляцию. Акции ANZ и Westpac упали в цене примерно на 1%, в то время как горнодобывающие компании BHP Billiton и Rio Tinto потеряли 1-2% стоимости бумаг. Рыночная стоимость South32 увеличилась на 3,7% после того, как компания спрогнозировала более низкие объемы производства и более высокие удельные затраты на своих заводах в Иллаварре на 2017-18 годы. Телекоммуникационный провайдер Telstra увеличил капитализацию на 3%, а бумаги энергетических компаний Origin Energy, Woodside Petroleum и Oil Search подорожали на 0,2%- 0,8%. NIKKEI 22622.38 -84.78 -0.37% SHANGHAI 3303.04 -6.58 -0.20% HSI 28842.80 -295.48 -1.01% ASX 200 5971.82 -13.77 -0.23% KOSPI 2510.12 +8.45 +0.34% NZ50 8176.21 -8.66 -0.11% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Во вторник выйдет значительное число важных данных. В 00:30 GMT Австралия заявит об изменении сальдо платежного баланса за 3-й квартал и изменении розничных продаж за октябрь. Первый показатель отражает баланс платежей страны за границу и поступлений из-за границы. Наиболее распространенный вид балансов международных расчетов. Если поступления превышают платежи, баланс считается активным (имеет активное сальдо); в противном случае он пассивен (имеет пассивное сальдо). Второй показатель отражает изменение объема продаж в сфере розничной торговли. Поскольку объемы розничной торговли являются одним из показателей потребительских расходов, данный индикатор может служить показателем потребительского спроса и уверенности потребителя, что позволяет точнее определить поворотные точки экономического цикла. Ожидается, что дефицит торгового баланса сократился до A$9,2 млрд. с A$9,6 млрд., а розничные продажи увеличились на 0,3%. В 01:45 GMT Китай представит индекс деловой активности в секторе услуг от Caixin/Markit за ноябрь. Индекс представляет собой опережающий индикатор состояния сектора услуг Китая, и рассчитывается на основании опроса около 400 менеджеров по закупкам, которые оценивают уровень условий ведения бизнеса, включая занятость, производство, новые заказы, поставки и запасы. Значение выше уровня 50 пунктов указывает на расширение промышленности. В 03:30 GMT в Австралии будет оглашено решение РБА по процентной ставке, а также выйдет Сопроводительное заявление РБА. Это процент, под который Резервный Банк Австралии предоставляет кредиты коммерческим банкам. Отталкиваясь от данного значения, коммерческие банки устанавливают свои проценты по кредитам и вкладам. Основная учетная ставка - один из самых важных механизмов, с помощью которого осуществляется регуляция экономики страны. Согласно прогнозам, процентная ставка останется на уровне 1,50%. В 09:30 GMT Британия выпустит индекс PMI в секторе услуг за ноябрь. Индекс отображает изменение настроений в сфере услуг. Вычисляется на основе опроса представителей руководящих должностей. Значение индикатора выше уровня 50 пунктов свидетельствует о том, что в секторе произошло расширение. Ожидается, что индекс упал до 55,0 с 55,6 в октябре. В 10:00 GMT еврозона заявит об изменении розничных продаж за октябрь. Индекс показывает изменение объема продаж в сфере розничной торговли. Поскольку объемы розничной торговли являются одним из показателей потребительских расходов, данный индикатор может служить показателем потребительского спроса и уверенности потребителя, что позволяет точнее определить поворотные точки экономического цикла. Прогнозируется, что продажи снизились на 0,7% за месяц, и выросли на 1,7% в годовом выражении. В 13:30 GMT Канада и США объявят об изменении сальдо торгового баланса за октябрь. Показатель отражает все торговые операций. Сальдо торгового баланса - это разницу между объемом произведенной и вывезенной из страны продукции (экспорт) и объемом продукции, ввезенной в страну (импорт). Позитивное сальдо называется профицитом, негативное дефицитом. Стоит также отметить, что около 65% канадского экспорта приходится на США. Ожидается, что дефицит торгового баланса США расширился до $47,5 млрд. с $43,50 млрд. в сентябре. В 15:00 GMT США представят индекс деловой активности в сфере услуг от Института управления поставками (ISM) за ноябрь. Показатель является результатом опроса около 400 фирм из 60 секторов по всем США, включая сельское хозяйство, добычу, строительство, транспортную сферу, связь, оптовые и розничные компании. Индекс состоит из четырех равновзвешенных компонент: деловая активность, новые заказы, занятость и отгрузки поставщиков. Значение индекса ISM, превышающее 50, обычно рассматривается как показатель роста активности. Прогнозируется, что индекс снизился до 59,2 с 60,1 в октябре. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam