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Резервный банк Австралии
28 апреля, 06:23

Австралия: Индекс цен производителей выше в первом квартале выше прогнозов

Индекс цен производителей, публикуемый Австралийским бюро статистики, в первом квартале 2017 года увеличился на 0,5%, как и в предыдущем квартале, однако, показатель выше прогноза экономистов, которые ожидали рост на 0,3%. В годовом исчислении цены производителей выросли на 1,3% после роста на 0,7% в четвертом квартале 2016 года. Индекс цен производителей показывает среднее изменение цен австралийских производителей сырьевых материалов и обычно считается индикатором инфляции на рынке сырья. В отчете статуправлкения Австралии отмечено, что увеличение индекса в основном связано с повышением цен, полученных за поставку электроэнергии, газоснабжения, водоснабжение и канализация и дренажные услуги (+2,9%), строительных конструкции (+0,55) и за переработку нефти и производство нефтепродуктов в качестве топлива (+6,8%). Рост индекса был частично компенсирован падениями цен на специализированную технику и технологическое оборудование (-2,6%), автомашины и изготовление деталей двигателя автомобиля (-0,8%), а также на коммерческое рыболовство (-17,6%). Также сегодня Резервный банк Австралии сообщил, что кредитование частного сектора в Австралии увеличилось на 0,3% в марте, что совпало с предыдущим значением, но ниже ожидаемого роста на 0,5%. В годовом исчислении в марте зафиксирован рост кредитования на 5%, как и ранее в феврале. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

25 апреля, 15:09

Sweden’s Gold Reserves: 10,000 gold bars (pet rocks) shrouded in Official Secrecy

Submitted by Ronan Manly, Bullionstar.com In February 2017 while preparing for a presentation in Gothenburg about central bank gold, I emailed Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, enquiring whether the Riksbank physically audits Sweden’s gold and whether it would provide me with a gold bar weight list of Sweden’s gold reserves (gold bar holdings). The Swedish official gold reserves are significant and amount to 125.7 tonnes, making the Swedish nation the world’s 28th largest official gold holder. Before looking at the questions put to the Riksbank and the Riksbank’s responses, some background information is useful. Sweden’s central bank, Sveriges Riksbank aka Riksbanken or Riksbank, has the distinction of being the world’s oldest central bank (founded in 1668). The bank is responsible for the administration of Swedish monetary policy and the issuance of the Swedish currency, the Krona. Since Sweden is a member of the EU, the Riksbank is a member of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB), but since Sweden does not use the Euro, the Riksbank is not a central bank member of the European Central Bank (ECB). Therefore the Riksbank has a degree of independence that ECB member central banks lack, but still finds itself under the umbrella of the ESCB. Since it issues its own currency, the Riksbank is responsible for the management of the Swedish Krona exchange rate against other currencies, a task which should be borne in mind while reading the below. On 28 October 2013, the Riksbank for the first time revealed the storage locations of its gold reserves via publication of the following list of five storage locations (four of these locations are outside Sweden) and the percentage and gold tonnage stored at each location: Bank of England               61.4 tonnes (48.8%) Bank of Canada               33.2 tonnes (26.4%) Federal Reserve Bank   13.2 tonnes (10.5%) Swiss National Bank        2.8 tonnes (2.2%) Sveriges Riksbank         15.1 tonnes (12.0%) The storage locations of Sweden’s official Gold Reserves: Total 125.7 tonnes Nearly half of Sweden’s gold is stored at the Bank of England in London. Another quarter of the Swedish gold is supposedly stored with the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada’s gold vault was located under it’s headquarters building on Wellington Street in Ottawa. However, this Bank of Canada building has undergone a complete renovation and has been completely empty for a number of years, so wherever Sweden’s gold is in Ottawa, it has not been in the Bank of Canada’s gold vault for the last number of years. Three other central banks claim to hold gold with the Bank of Canada. Thes are the central banks of Switzerland, the Netherlands and Belgium. The Swedish gold in Canada (along with gold holdings owned by the Swiss, Dutch and Belgians) could, however, have been moved to the Royal Canadian Mint’s vault which is also in Ottawa. Bank of Canada staff are now moving back into the Wellington Street building this year. But is the Swedish (and Swiss, Dutch and Belgian) gold moving back also or does it even exist? The location of the Swedish gold in Ottawa is therefore a mystery and is something the Swedish population should be concerned about. Just over 10% of the Swedish gold is supposedly held in the famous (infamous) Manhattan gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) under the 33 Liberty building. Given the complete lack of cooperation of the FRBNY in ever answering any questions about foreign gold holdings in this vault, then good luck to Swedish citizens in trying to ascertain that gold’s whereabouts or even convincing the Riksbank to repatriate that gold. A very tiny 2% of Swedish gold is also listed as being held with the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB gold vault is in Berne under its headquarters building on Bundesplatz. The Riksbank also claims to hold 15.1 tonnes of its gold (12%) in its own storage, i.e. stored domestically in Sweden. Interestingly, on 30 October 2013, just two days after the Riksbank released details of its gold storage locations, Finland’s central bank in neighbouring Helsinki, the Bank of Finland, also released the storage locations of its 49 tonnes gold reserves in a move which looks to have been coordinated with the Riksbank. The Bank of Finland claims its 49 tonnes of gold is spread out as follows: 51% at the Bank of England, 20% at the Riksbank in Sweden, 18% at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 7% in Switzerland at the Swiss National Bank and 4% held in Finland by the Bank of Finland. This means that not only is the Riksbank supposedly storing 15.1 tonnes of Swedish gold, it also apparently is also storing 9.8 tonnes of Finland’s gold, making a grand total of 24.9 tonnes of gold stored with the Riksbank. The storage location of this 24.9 tonnes gold is unknown, but one possibility suggested by the Swedish blogger Cornucopia (Lars Wilderäng) is that this gold is being stored in the recently built Riksbank cash management building beside Stockholm’s Arlanda International Airport, a building which was completed in 2012. On its website, the Riksbank states that its 125.7 tonnes of gold “is equivalent to around 10,000 gold bars”. A rough rule of thumb is that 1 tonne of gold consists of 80 Good Delivery Bars. These Good Delivery Gold gold bars are wholesale market gold bars which, although they are variable weight bars, usually each weigh in the region of 400 troy ounces or 12.5 kilograms. Hence 125.7 tonnes is roughly equal to 125.7 * 80 bars = 10,056 bars, which explains where the Riksbank gets its 10,000 gold bar total figure from. Using Gold for Foreign Exchange Interventions On another page on its web site titled ‘Gold and Foreign Currency Reserve’, the Riksbank is surprisingly open about the uses to which it puts its gold holdings, uses such as foreign exchange interventions and emergency liquidity: “The gold and foreign currency reserve can primarily be used to provide emergency liquidity assistance to banks, to fulfil Sweden’s share of the international lending of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and to intervene on the foreign exchange market, if need be.” This is not a misprint and is not a statement that somehow only applies to the ‘foreign currency reserve’ component of the reserves, since the same web page goes on to specifically say that: “The gold can be used to fund emergency liquidity assistance or foreign exchange interventions, among other things.” Therefore, the Riksbank is conceding that at least some of its gold is actively used in central bank operations and that this gold does not merely sit in quiet unencumbered storage. On the contrary, this gold at times has additional claims and titles attached to it due to being loaned or swapped. When the Riksbank revealed its gold storage locations back in October 2013, this news was covered by a number of Swedish media outlets, one of which was the Stockholm-based financial newspaper Dagens Industri, commonly known as DI. DI’s article on the topic, published in Swedish with a title translated as “Here is the Swedish Gold“,  also featured a series of questions and answers from personnel from the Riksbank asset management department. Some of these answers are worth highlighting here as they touch on the active management of the Swedish gold and also the shockingly poor auditing of the Swedish gold. In the DI article, Göran Robertsson, Deputy Head of Riksbank’s asset management department, noted that historically the Swedish gold was stored at geographically diversified locations for security reasons, but that this same geographic distribution is now primarily aimed at facilitating the rapid exchange of Swedish gold for major foreign currencies, hence the reason that nearly half of the Swedish gold is held in the Bank of England gold vaults – since the Bank of England London vaults are where gold swaps and gold loans take place. Robertsson noted that over the 2008-2009 period, 50 tonnes of gold Swedish gold located at the Bank of England was exchanged for US dollars:  “London is the dominant international marketplace for gold. We used the gold 2008-2009 during the financial crisis when we switched it to the dollar we then lent to Swedish banks” One of these Riskbank gold-US Dollar swap transaction was also referenced in a 2011 World Gold Council report on gold market liquidity. This report stated that in 2008 following the Lehman collapse: “In order to be able to provide liquidity to the Scandinavian banking system, the Swedish Riksbank utilised its gold reserves by swapping some of its gold to obtain dollar liquidity before it was able to gain access to the US dollar swap facilities with the Federal Reserve.”  In the October 2013 DI interview, Göran Robertsson also noted that at some point following this gold – dollar exchange, “the size of the reserve was restored“, which presumably means that the Riksbank received back 50 tonnes of gold. As to whether the restoration of the gold holdings was the exact same 50 tonnes of gold as had been previously held (the same  gold bars) is not clear. Sophie Degenne, Head of the Riksbank’s asset management department, also noted that: “The main purpose of the gold and foreign exchange reserves is to use it when needed, as in the financial crisis” Auditing of the Swedish Gold On the subject of so-called transparency and auditing of the gold, Sophie Degenne said the following in the same DI interview: “Why do you reveal at which central banks the gold is located? It is a part of the Riksbank endeavours to be as transparent as we can. We have engaged in dialogue with the relevant central banks” How do you verify that the gold is really where it should be? “We have our own listings of where it is. We reconcile these against extracts that we receive once a year. From now on, we will also start with our own inspections.” Therefore, the Riksbank gold auditing procedure at that time was one of merely comparing one piece of paper to another piece of paper and in no way involved physically auditing the gold bars in any of the foreign locations. These weak audit methods of the Swedish gold were first highlighted by Liberty Silver CEO, Mikael From in Stockholm-based news daily Aftonbladet’s coverage of the Swedish gold storage locations in an article in early November 2013 titled “Questions about Sweden’s gold reserves persist“. In Aftonbladet’s article, Mikael From stated that while it was welcome that the Riksbank was at that point signalling an ambition to inspect the Swedish gold reserves, it was not clear that the Riksbank would be conducting a proper audit of the gold reserves at the time of inspection, although such a proper audit would be highly desirable. Mikael stated that without such a proper audit, and without witnessing the gold with their own eyes, the Riksbank and the Swedish State could not be certain that the Swedish gold actually existed. He also called for the Riksbank to provide information proving that the Swedish gold actually exists in its claimed storage locations. This was particulaly important due to a portion of the Swedish gold supposedly being stored at the gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NYFED), a storage location which had in the past been non-cooperative and problematic for the German Federal Court of Auditors when they tried to examine the NYFED’s storage arrangements in 2011/2012. Questions to the Swedish Riksbank – February 2017 Turning now to the questions which I posed to the Swedish Riksbank in early February 2017 about its gold reserves. I asked the Riskbank two basic and simple questions as follows: “I am undertaking research into central bank gold reserves, including the gold reserves held by the Riksbank at its 5 storage facilities.  1. Are the gold bars held by the Riksbank in its foreign storage facilities physically audited by the Riksbank (i.e. stored at Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve New York and Swiss National Bank)? In other words, does the Riksbank have a physical audit program for this gold? 2. Secondly, would the Riksbank be able to send me a gold bar weight list which shows the gold bar holdings details for the 125.7 tonnes of gold held by the Riksbank. A weight list being the industry standard list showing bar brand (refiner), serial number, gross weight, fineness, fine weight etc. A few days after I submitted my questions, the Presschef/Chief Press Officer of the Riksbank responded as follows. On the subject of auditing: “Answer 1: Yes, the Riksbank performs regularly physical audits of its gold.“ In response to the question about a gold bar weight list, the Chief Press Officer said: Answer 2: The Riksbank publishes information about where the gold is stored and how much in tonnes is at each place. See table (same distribution table as above). However, the Riksbank does not publish weight lists or other details of the gold holdings.“ So here we have the Riksbank claiming that it personally now performs physical audits of its gold on a regular basis. This is the first time in the public domain, as far as I know, that the Riksbank is claiming to have undertaken physical gold audits of its gold holdings, and it goes beyond the 2013 statement from the Riksbank’s Sophie Degenne when she said “we will also start with our own inspections“. But critically ,there was zero proof offered by the Riksbank to me, or on its website, that it has undertaken any physical gold audits. There is no documentation or evidence whatsoever that any physical audits have ever been conducted on any of the 10,000 gold bars in any of the 5 supposed storage locations that the Riksbank claims to store gold bars at. Contrast this to the bi-annual physical audits which are carried out on the gold bars in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) which are published on the GLD website. In any other industry, there would be an outcry and court cases and litigation if an entity claimed it had conducted audits while offering no proof of said audits. However, in the world of central banking, perversely, this secrecy is allowed to persist. This is outrageous to say the least and Swedish citizens should be very concerned about this lack of transparency of the Swedish gold reserves. Official Secrecy about Swedish Gold Reserves Given the brief and not very useful Riksbank responses to my 2 questions above, I sent a follow on email to the Riksbank asking why the Swedish central bank did not publish a gold bar weight list. My question was as follows: “Is there any specific reason why the Riksbank does not publish a gold bar weight list in the way, for example, that a gold-backed ETF does publish such a weight list every trading day? i.e. Why is the Riksbank not transparent about its gold bar holdings?” This second email was answered by the Riksbank Head of Communications, as follows: “This kind of information is covered by secrecy relating to foreign affairs, as well as security secrecy and surveillance secrecy in accordance with the relevant provisions in the Swedish Public Access to Information and Secrecy Act. As far as we are aware of, the Riksbank is among the most transparent central banks, being public with information about the storage locations and volumes, but do let us know if any other central banks are offering the level of transparency you are asking for (except for Germany of course, which we are aware about).” So here you can see here that gold, which in the words of the Wall Street Journal is just a ‘Pet Rock’, is covered by some very strong secrecy laws in Sweden. Why would a pet rock need ultra strong secrecy laws? An explanatory document on Sweden’s “Public Access to Information and Secrecy Act” can be accessed here. In Sweden, the rules governing public access to official documents are covered by the Freedom of the Press Act. While its beyond topic to go into the details of Swedish secrecy laws right now, there is a short section in the document titled “What official documents may be kept secret?” (Section 2.2) which includes the following: “The Freedom of the Press Act lists the interests that may be protected by keeping official documents secret: National security or Sweden’s relations with a foreign state or an international organisation; The central financial policy, the monetary policy, or the national foreign exchange policy; Inspection, control or other supervisory activities of a public authority; The interest of preventing or prosecuting crime; The public economic interest; The protection of the personal or economic circumstances of private subjects; or The preservation of animal or plant species. Given that the Riksbank stated that the information in its gold bar weight lists was “covered by secrecy relating to foreign affairs, as well as security secrecy and surveillance secrecy”, I would hazard a guess that the Riksbank would try to reject Freedom of Information requests in this area by pointing to central bank gold storage and gold operations as falling under points 1 or 2, i.e. falling under national security or relations with a foreign state or international organisation, or else monetary policy / foreign exchange policy (especially given that the Riksbank uses gold reserves in its foreign currency interventions). Perhaps the Riksbank would also try to twist point 5 as an excuse, i.e. that it wouldn’t be in the public economic interest to release the Swedish gold bar details. As to why the Riksbank and nearly all other central banks are ultra secretive about gold bar weight lists and even physical auditing of gold bar holdings usually boils down to the fact that, like the Riksbank, these gold bar holdings are actively managed and are often used in gold loans, gold swaps and even gold location swaps. If identifiable details of the gold bars of such central banks were in the public domain, given that these bars are involved in loans, currency swaps and location swaps, these gold bar details could begin to show up in the gold bar lists of other central banks or of the gold bar lists of publicly listed gold-backed Exchange Traded Funds. This would then blow the cover of the central banks which continue to maintain the fiction that their loaned and swapped gold is still held in unencumbered custody on their balance sheets, and would blow a hole in their contrived and corrupt accounting policies. A Proposal to the Oldest Central Bank in the World Since the Riksbank happened to ask me were there any central banks “offering the level of transparency [I was] asking for” i.e. providing gold bar weight lists, I decided to send a final response back to the Riksbank in early March highlighting the central banks that I am aware of that have published such gold bar weight lists, and I also took the opportunity of proposing that the Riksbank should follow suit in publishing its gold bar weight list. My letter to the Riksbank was as follows: “You had asked which central banks offered a level of transparency on their gold holdings that include publication of a gold bar weight list. Apart from the Deutsche Bundesbank, which you know about, I can think of 3 central banks which have released weight lists of their gold bar holdings. The 3 examples below (together with the Bundesbank) show that some of the most important central banks and monetary authorities in the world have now deemed it acceptable to include the release of gold bar weight lists as part of their gold communication transparency strategies.  The 4 sets of weight lists below include gold bar holdings at the Bank of England (stored by Mexico, Australia, Germany), and at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (stored by the US Treasury and Bundesbank). Together these two storage locations account for 60% of the Riksbank’s gold holdings (74.6 tonnes). The Riksbank is the world’s oldest central bank and has a long track record of being progressive and transparent. By releasing the Riksbank’s gold bar weight lists for the gold bars stored over the 5 storage locations (London, New York, Ottawa, Berne and in Sweden), the Swedish central bank would be joining an elite group of central banks and monetary institutions that could be considered the early stage adopters of much needed transparency in this area.” 1. Bank of Mexico Most recently in 2017, Bank of Mexico has released a weight list of its earmarked gold bars stored at the Bank of England. This list in pdf format can be downloaded here – > http://www.guillermobarba.com/assets/uploads/2017/03/LT-BM-18703-ok.pdf The Mexican list details 7265 gold bars held (about 90 tonnes), and includes bank of England internal sequence number, refiner brand, gross weight, assay (fineness), and fine weight. See also https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/mexicos-earmarked-gold-bars-bank-englands-vaults/  2. Reserve Bank of Australia In July 2014, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released a weight list of 6313 gold bars (about 79 tonnes) that it has stored at the bank of England in London. See  http://www.rba.gov.au/information/foi/disclosure-log/rbafoi-131418.html The weight list in Excel format can be downloaded here http://www.rba.gov.au/information/foi/disclosure-log/xls/131418.xls The RBA list includes refiner brand, gross weight, assay (fineness), and fine weight, as well as bank of England account number. 3. US Treasury In 2011, the US Treasury’s full detailed schedules of gold bars was published by the US House Committee on Financial Services as part of submissions for its hearing titled “Investigating the Gold: H.R. 1495, the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2011 and the Oversight of United States Gold Holdings”. These US Treasury weight lists are as follows, and are downloadable from the financial services section of the “house.gov” web site. Weight list of all Treasury gold held at Fort Knox, Denver and West Point – 699,515 bars  – pdf format http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/attachment_4_mints_schedule_of_inventory_of_deep_storage_gold_reserves.pdf Weight list of all Treasury gold held at Fort Knox, Denver and West Point – 699,515 bars – xlsformat http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/mints_schedule_of_inventory_of_deep_storage_gold_reserves.xls Weight List of Treasury gold held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) – 31,204 bars. List starts at page 132 of pdf (or page 128 of file) http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/112-41.pdf Deutsche Bundesbank The Bundesbank weight list which you know about. The most recent version of this list was published on 23rd February 2017 and can be downloaded here http://www.bundesbank.de/Redaktion/EN/Downloads/Bundesbank/Organisation/bar_list.pdf?__blob=publicationFile The Bundesbank list show all the German gold bars held at the Bank of England, NY fed and Banque de France as well as in Frankfurt.” Conclusion As of now, the Swedish Riksbank has a) not published a gold bar weight list of any of its gold bar holdings and b) not acknowledged my follow up email where I listed the central banks that have produced such lists and suggested that the Riksbank do likewise. The Swedish Riksbank claims to hold 10,000 large Good Delivery gold bars in 5 locations across the world and now claims to have conducted physical gold audits of this gold. Yet it has never published any physical gold audit results of any of these gold bars nor published any of the serial numbers of any of the 10,000 gold bars it claims to have in storage. For a so-called progressive democracy this is shocking, although not surprising given the arrogance and unaccountability of central bankers. If someone with time on their hands, ideally a Swedish citizen, has an interest in this area, it would be worthwhile for them to research the rules of the Swedish Freedom of Information Act, and then craft a few carefully worded Freedom of Information requests to the Riksbank requesting physical audit documents and gold bar weight lists of Sweden’s 125.7 tonnes of gold that is supposedly held in London, New York, Ottawa, Berne and in Sweden.  While these Freedom of Information requests would probably get rejected due a some spurious secrecy excuse and thrown back at the applicant in short order, at least its worth trying, and might even make a good story for the Swedish media to cover. This article was first published on the BullionStar website as "Sweden’s Gold Reserves: 10,000 gold bars shrouded in Official Secrecy".

18 апреля, 13:44

Global Stocks Slide As Iron Ore Crashes; Pound Jumps After UK Calls Snap Elections

European stocks slide as traders returned from a 4-day Easter holidays, Asian equities likewise drop pressured by the ongoing rout in iron ore, while U.S. stock-index futures point to a lower open. British markets were roiled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek an early election on June 8, in a move aimed at strengthening her hand going into Brexit talks; the FTSE 100 dropped 1.3%, on the news, hitting the lowest since Feb. 24 while 10Y Gilts dropped below 1% for the first time since October. The British pound first tumbled then surged on the news. Tracking today's surprise announcement by the UK PM, sterling swung from gain to loss and back again versus the dollar before May set the vote for June 8. U.K. stocks fell by the most since January. The export-heavy FTSE 100 hits a seven-week low. The broader, more domestically focused FTSE 250, however, doesn't see this as much of a negative: Meanwhile, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped to the lowest level in about three weeks as mining shares plunged, and government bonds in the region mostly rose as the build up to the French election intensified. Iron ore reeled as Citigroup Inc. said it’s bearish on the raw material’s outlook. The catalyst for the overnight selloff came from Asia, where the iron ore rout continued, and after the latest 5% drop, the commodity has plunged 32% from high point in Feb this year. #CHINA'S #IRONORE SELLOFF DEEPENS, TUMBLING 5% NOW pic.twitter.com/lFNyTTwjtY — YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) April 18, 2017 The drop pressured Australian stocks (ASX 200 -1.0%) which declined to a 2-week low, as recent losses in iron ore and gold weighed on mining names. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.7 percent, while Tokyo's Nikkei closed up 0.4 percent on earlier yen weakness. A bounce in U.S. stocks Monday failed to cheer investors in the European session, as the standoff over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program rumbles on and the French presidential vote looms: here two candidates who want to take the country out of Europe’s common currency remain in contention in the most unpredictable race in recent history. As a result, the spread between German and Italian bonds continued to widen.  “Expect a lot of noise and probably elevated volatility this week" as the first round of voting approaches, Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in London, wrote in a note. The dollar dipped fractionally against a basket of major currencies. It earlier lifted off five-month lows versus the yen after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Financial Times a strong dollar was a positive in the long term while agreeing with U.S. President Donald Trump that it hurt exports in the short term. Investors were also watching trade talks between the United States and Japan, whose deputy premier, Taro Aso, said the two sides agreed to combat unfair trade practices. "There was quite strong thinking in the market that the U.S. would maybe put pressure on Japan in terms of currency manipulation," said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund FX sales at Mizuho in London. Investor nervousness ahead of Sunday's French election made itself felt in currency and debt markets. French 10-year government bond yields initially rose while ultra-safe German equivalents dipped, taking the gap between the two close to six-week highs. But French yields later fell and the spread with Germany narrowed to its tightest since April 13 after an opinion poll put centrist Emmanuel Macron first in the first round of voting, just ahead of far-right, anti-euro candidate Marine Le Pen with a bigger gap to far-left representative Jean-Luc Melenchon. The cost of hedging against big moves in the euro against both the dollar and the yen over the next month jumped on Monday to their highest levels since Britain's vote to leave the European Union. "(Euro government bond) investors are going to be very careful this week and clearly the only thing that's going to be on their minds is what happens in France," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets. Implied volatility in the STOXX 600 index hit its highest since early November 2016. Oil prices fell after a U.S. government report indicated U.S. shale production was rising. Brent, the international benchmark crude, fell 29 cents a barrel to $55.07. Copper was down 0.6 percent at $$5,655 a tonne. Gold was marginally higher on the day at $1,283 an ounce, having touched a five-month high of $1,295 on Monday. Economic data include March housing starts, industrial production. Scheduled earnings include J&J, Bank of America, IBM, UnitedHealth, Goldman Sachs. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,336.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 378.44 MXAP down 0.5% to 146.17 MXAPJ down 0.8% to 476.46 Nikkei up 0.4% to 18,418.59 Topix up 0.4% to 1,471.53 Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 23,924.54 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,196.71 Sensex up 0.3% to 29,512.93 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,836.74 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,148.46 Brent Futures down 0.6% to $55.03/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,284.90 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 100.31 German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.178% Euro up 0.07% to 1.0650 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.6% to $55.03/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 2.022% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 1.687% Top Overnight News Trump Seeks Shift in Visa Allotments Crucial to Tech Outsourcing Netflix Trades User Growth for Profits With No ‘House of Cards’ Post to Buy Weetabix From Bright Food in $1.8 Billion Deal U.S. Trade Deal With South Korea Falling Short, Pence Warns Blackwater Founder Erik Prince Said to Have Advised Trump Team CDH Investments Said to Lead Buyout of Shoe Retailer Belle United Gains 1% on 1Q Beat, 2Q Prasm View; Peers AAL, DAL Rise Barracuda Falls After 2018 Revenue View Midpoint Trails Estimate Freeport Workers to Rally Against Grasberg Lay Offs April 20-22 Allergan, Novartis to Run Phase 2b Study for NASH Treatment Arconic Shareholder Orbis Says Board Should Seek New Leadership Gigamon, CBL & Associates, Cytokinetics to Join S&P SmallCap 600 Cardiovascular Systems to Recall 900 Pumps, Sees $1.5m Expense HP CEO Says Import Tax May Boost Prices for Users in Industry AdCare CEO Ousted After Board Says He Lied About MBA From UCLA Cemex to Sell Pacific Northwest Unit to Cadman for $150M Asian equity markets dropped, failing to keep up with the positive momentum from Wall Street, where stocks rebounded as focus shifted to earnings and financials outperformed. ASX 200 (-1.0%) declined to a 2-week low, as recent losses in iron ore and gold weighed on mining names. Conversely, Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was positive as exporter names benefited from a weaker JPY, while the financial sector performed similarly to its US counterparts. Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) and Hang Seng (-1.4%) were subdued despite the PBoC resuming liquidity operations and firm Chinese Property Prices, as a continued rampant property sector could attract funds away from stocks. 10yr JGBs traded lower amid spillover selling from USTs and a somewhat positive risk tone in Japan, although losses were stemmed following a 5yr auction in which the b/c and accepted prices were higher than prior. Chinese House Price Index (Mar) Y/Y 11.3% (Prey. 11.8%). China house prices increased M/M in 62 out of 70 cities (Prey. 56) and increased Y/Y in 68 out of 70 cities (Prey. 67). PBoC injected CNY 40bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos. Top Asian News Stock’s 9,800% Rise Shows Hong Kong Billions Exist Just on Paper Drugs and Booze Shares Benefit as China Investors Turn Defensive Japan, U.S. Eco Talks Should Have Near-Term, Concrete Results Hongqiao Drops $1.6 Billion Loften Purchase Citing New Rules European equities have failed to hold on to opening gains and trade lower across the board with the FTSE 100 the laggard throughout the session. The commodity-heavy FTSE 100 bucked the trend at the open and started the week off on the backfoot alongside softness in energy and materials names with losses in gold overnight and iron ore prices hitting two week lows. Thereafter, European equities followed suit and shed their opening gains amid ongoing key risk factors as participants eye Sunday's first round of voting for the French Presidential election with polls showing an increasingly narrow margin between the four main candidates. Elsewhere, downbeat comments from US treasury secretary Mnuchin on the fate of tax reform and mounting geopolitical tensions have also added to the sombre tone. In fixed income markets, prices saw a relatively tentative start to the session before then being lent a helping hand by some of the softness in European equities. The focus however has been on French paper which trades relatively flat ahead of the 1st round election in which the election polls have narrowed somewhat, indicating the 1st round is a now a 4-horse race amid the surge in support for far-left Melenchon. Additionally, the shock announcement by PM Theresa May that the UK will hold a snap election on June 8 has thrown local traders for a loop, unleashing volatility both in sterling and the FTSE100, which hit its lowest level since Feb. 24 Top European News French Race Up for Grabs Days Before First Ballot Is Cast Bank Brexit Exodus Seen Hastened by Close Regulator Scrutiny London House-Price Growth at Five-Year Low as Luxury End Slumps Deutsche Bank Sees 2017 High-Yield Market Defying Political Risk Swiss Aren’t Manipulating Their Currency, Gasser Tells CNBC JPMorgan Stays Constructive Europe Banks Long Term; Nordics Best European Miners Post Worst Drop on Stoxx 600 as Iron Ore Tumbles In currencies,  a choppy morning for GBP as the early running saw near term 'radio silence' prompting a fresh push higher in  Cable as we pierced 1.2600. This proved short lived however as news that UK PM May announced a snap election sent cable tumbling then rebounding sharply higher. The EURGBP will struggle for upside traction ahead of the French elections, with the first round voting set for Sunday 23      April. The polls are tight, but looking at the EUR across the board, there does not seem to be any major panic, with EUR/USD sticking close to 1.0650 (large expiry here today), and EUR/JPY finding some near-term demand below 116.00. EUR/CHF treads a very tight range under 1.0700, but no prizes for guessing what is behind this. The JPY 'relief' looks to be based on what some perceive to be a near term 'verbal' impasse between the US and North Korea. Further JPY strength may be unwarranted at this stage, but resuming to steady risk on is still further out on the horizon. USD/JPY is back under 109.00 though, but techs point to a strong support zone in the 107.00-108.00 which may be tempting in value buyers irrespective of the mood in equities. AUD has suffered on the RBA minutes overnight as their concerns over the labour market and household indebtedness edge a rate cut back into policy considerations. AUD/USD is languishing in the lower 0.7500's, but downside momentum has faded here for now as traders focuses on AUD/NZD, which has now taken out modest support at 1.0750. NZD/USD propped above 0.7000 as a result. Oil prices take a dip to push USD/CAD back above 1.3350, but as we have seen in recent weeks, selling interest through  1.3400 has been strong, so we may see orders marked down given the domestic data has been supportive in recent  months. In commodities,  Gold has come off better levels in line with a modest uptick in the USD, with the key USD1300.00 having held  amid last week's fall and heightened risk aversion. We see little which would have arrested the drop off in risk  sentiment, but this is not an unfamiliar scenario, but the yellow metal is likely remain underpinned alongside Silver. The latter has comfortably established a foothold above USD18.00. Oil prices continue to turn up and down on inventory data and rig counts, but with WTI inside USD50-55, we again see little cause for concern unless the risk mood in equities turns sharply. The same can be said for base metals with Copper prices largely range bound after coming off better levels in recent weeks. Palladium and aluminium modest outperformers on the day. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.25m, prior 1.29m; MoM, est. -2.95%, prior 3.0% Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.21m; MoM, est. 2.8%, prior -6.2% 9:15am: Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%; Capacity Utilization, est. 76.1%, prior 75.4%; Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. 0.0%, prior 0.5% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap One wonders how many Italian Governments there will be in the next 117 years but in the near-term there will be more focus on this coming Sunday's first round in the French Presidential elections which will dominate a week that also includes the first busy week of US earnings season (46 S&P 500 companies report) and the influential flash PMIs on Friday. In our 2017 outlook written nearly 6 months ago now (how time flies) the French election was one of those events where we thought volatility would increase notably into it even though we thought there'd be a market friendly outcome at the end of it. So far this year vol has been much lower than we anticipated but it has been picking up of late ahead of this election and also due to geopolitical rumblings, some slightly disappointing data and market concerns that Mr Trump's growth agenda may be faltering. We still think 2017 will ultimately be ok from a growth and risk asset point of view but it might be that we're now past the calmest point of the year. As we approach the election, the polls are now incredibly close with all four main candidates within a few percentage points of each other. Indeed the last 3 polls (Elabe, Ifop-Fiducial and OpinionWay) have an average high-low range amongst the top 4 candidates of 4.5% with the most notable trend now being a slight dip in support of Le Pen to around 22-23% from closer to 25% earlier this month. Market friendly candidate Macron remains well ahead of his 3 main rivals in a straight head-to-head run-off (16-26% lead) but obviously there'll be some concern with the first round getting tighter that he'll fail to be in that  run-off with the worst case market scenario a Le Pen/Melenchon battle. So expect a lot of noise and probably elevated vol this week. The VSTOXX index closed at 23.39 on Thursday (double where it was back in mid-March) which as a reminder is the highest level this year and also the highest level since November 8th. Meanwhile the VIX closed at 14.66 last night which is down from Thursday’s YTD high of 15.96 but still well above the 2017 average of 12.01. That move lower in the VIX yesterday reflects what was a fairly calm session on Wall Street last night. Coming off the back of a -1.13% weekly loss last week the S&P 500 bounced back +0.86% yesterday on low volumes while there was a similar rebound for the Dow (+0.90%) and Nasdaq (+0.89%) as well. Ahead of today’s results it was the Banks that led the way with the sector up just over 2% - as a recap both JP Morgan and Citigroup set a decent pace last week with Q1 revenue and earnings both coming in slightly ahead of the consensus estimate. Geopolitics was less of a factor yesterday despite that weekend news of the failed North Korea missile launch. Instead some decent data out of China including the Q1 GDP report helped to support a strong start to the week. Indeed China’s Q1 GDP print of 6.9% came in one-tenth ahead of the consensus estimate and also improved from 6.8% and 6.7% in Q4 and Q3 of 2016 respectively. At the same time all headline activity indicators in March were supportive. Industrial production came in at 7.6% yoy (vs. 6.3% expected) from 6.0% in February. Retail sales stabilised at 10.9% yoy (vs. 9.7% expected) and fixed asset investment grew to 9.2% yoy (vs. 8.8% expected) from 8.9%. It’s worth noting that the latter was driven by property investment growth as opposed to infrastructure investment. Our economists in China also highlighted  that property sales growth moderated slightly in March on a monthly basis but was still picking up if you look at the 3-month moving averages. At the same time growth of land sales and new housing starts also continued to grow. As a result of the data our economists have now revised up their GDP growth forecast to 6.7% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018 (6.5% and 6.0% before revision). Importantly though, our team believe that growth has likely peaked in Q1 as credit growth slows and indeed they maintain the view that growth will drop on a quarterly basis to 6.8%, 6.6% and 6.5% in Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively. That data in China yesterday was attributed to the leg up for Copper (+1.14%), Aluminium (+0.58%) and Zinc (+0.88%) prices although the rest of the commodity complex was a little softer with Gold (-0.08%) and WTI Oil (-1.00%) both easing – although that does follow a decent rally last week. In sovereign bond markets 10y Treasury yields initially dipped below 2.200% at the open before steadily rising back as the session progressed to finish up just over 1bp at 2.251%. The focus in FX meanwhile was on the Turkish Lira which was as much as 2.5% stronger at the open before paring gains into the close. The rally came after President Erdogan secured victory in Turkey’s referendum which will now hand him sweeping powers including economic and monetary policies. Notwithstanding a possible recount as demanded by the opposition parties, our economist in Turkey notes that the bulk of the amendments, including a formal shift to an executive presidency, will kick in with the next dual elections (Parliamentary and Presidential) scheduled to be held in November 2019. The immediate changes post referendum are (i) removal of the current constitutional ban on the President's formal association with a political party, (ii) restructuring of the Supreme Council of Judges and Prosecutors, and (iii) abolishment of military courts. The Parliament will now have six months to make subsequent amendments in the related laws, including the electoral law, as well as Parliamentary bylaws. Before we recap the rest of the news since we’ve been away, this morning in Asia it’s been a fairly mixed start to the day with most major bourses open again following the long weekend. While the Nikkei (+0.23%) and CSI 300 (+0.08%) have edged a bit higher, the Hang Seng (-0.96%), Kospi (-0.18%) and ASX (-1.13%) are all lower while US equity index futures are also slightly in the red. There’s not been much new newsflow to report overnight although the latest house price data is out in China with house prices reported as rising in 62 of the 70 cities tracked by the government in March. That compares to 56 cities in February. Moving on. Another story which attracted a bit of attention yesterday was US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s interview with the FT. In it he said that the target to get tax reforms through Congress by August was “highly aggressive to not realistic at this point” and that “it is fair to say it is probably delayed a bit because of the healthcare (reform pushback)”. Mnuchin also responded to Trump’s statement about the strength of the dollar last week by saying that “the President was making a factual comment about the strength of the dollar in the short term” and that there is “a big difference between talk and action”. Mnuchin also suggested that the border-adjustment tax plan is not off the table but that there may be other ways of raising revenues. Before we look at the week ahead, it’s worth quickly wrapping up what has been a busy last couple of days for US data. The significant release on Friday was the March CPI report where headline inflation came in at a well below market -0.3% mom (vs. 0.0% expected). The core was also softer than expected at -0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). The end result of that is a drop in the annual rates for both the headline (to +2.4% from +2.7%) and core (to +2.0% from +2.2%). Also out on Friday was the March retail sales figures where headline sales were reported as retreating -0.2% mom as expected. Excluding autos and gas,  pending was up +0.1% mom while the control group component was up a more robust +0.5% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) removing the impact of building materials. Meanwhile yesterday we learned that the NY Fed’s empire manufacturing index fell 11.2pts to 5.2 in April and the lowest since November, while the NAHB housing market index declined 3pts to 68 from what had been a 12-year high. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta Fed is now forecasting for Q1 GDP growth of just +0.5% (from +0.6%). Moving now to this week’s calendar. With no data due out in Europe this morning the focus will instead be on the US this afternoon where March housing starts and building permits data is due out alongside the March industrial and manufacturing production reports. Turning to Wednesday, data due out in Europe includes the March CPI report for the Euro area along with the latest trade balance print. In the US tomorrow there is no data due out although in the evening the Fed’s Beige Book will be released. Japan kicks things off on Thursday with the March trade data due out. In Europe we’ll get PPI in Germany as well as the April consumer confidence reading for the Euro area. In the US on Thursday initial jobless claims, Philly Fed business outlook and Conference Board’s leading index are the scheduled releases. We end the week on Friday with a first look at the global flash April PMI’s including the manufacturing print in Japan and manufacturing, services and composite readings in Europe and the US. Also due out is retail sales data in the UK and existing home sales data in the US. Away from the data, this week’s Fedspeak includes George today, Rosengren on Wednesday, Powell on Thursday and Kashkari on Friday. Over at the ECB Hansson, Coeure and Praet are amongst the speakers this week while the BoE’s Carney speaks on Thursday. Also worth highlighting this week is US Vice- President Mike Pence’s meeting with Japan PM Abe and the release of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook today, Italy PM Gentiloni’s meeting with President Trump on Thursday and the annual Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group and IMF kicking off on Friday. Earnings wise this week we’ve got 46 S&P 500 companies accounting for 10% of the index market cap. The highlights include Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Yahoo, Johnson & Johnson and IBM today, eBay and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, Verizon on Thursday and Schlumberger on Friday.

13 апреля, 04:44

Резервный банк Австралии:Риски, связанные с долгами домохозяйст, растут и носят макроэкономический характер

Высокая задолженность домохозяйств больше повышает риски для экономики, чем для финансовых учреждений Австралийские банки хорошо подготовлены на случай экономического спада Введем новые ограничения для ипотечного кредитования в случае необходимости Регуляторы внимательно следят за банковским кредитованием, готовы ужесточить правила в дальнейшем при необходимости Австралийская финансовая система в хорошем состоянии в целом, банки выгодно и хорошо капитализированы Банкам, скорее всего, нужно поднять больше капитала в ближайшие годы, чтобы быть «безусловно, сильнее» РБА видит ограниченный риск в теневом банковском секторе на данный момент, но внимательно наблюдает Риски финансовой стабильности в Китае повышены, долг на очень высоком уровне Некоторые аспекты политики Трампа могут ослабить мировой экономический рост и финансовую стабильность Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

12 апреля, 08:19

Форекс: мнение NAB по паре AUD/USD

Согласно мнению аналитиков известного австралийского банка NAB, пара AUD/USD к окончанию 2017 года будет торговаться около отметки $0.70. В основном такой прогноз экспертов строится на предположение, что Резервный банк Австралии не станет изменять ставки в течение длительного периода времени и, возможно, начнет умеренно повышать их только к концу 2019 года. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

10 апреля, 15:57

Key Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

In this holiday-shortened week (markets closed for Good Friday), focus turns to several inflation prints in G10 in the week ahead, with US and UK inflation data likely to get the most attention. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday. Away from the US, the street expects the Bank of Canada to remain on hold, keeping the overnight rate target at 0.5%. Despite recent improvement in some economic data, slack remains in the economy and there is no evidence of demand pressure on prices. More interesting for the markets will be the message that the BoC chooses to send through the combination of the interest rate announcement, the monetary policy report and the press conference. In Emerging Markets there will be monetary policy meetings in Brazil, Chile, Korea, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Brazil´s BCB is expected to cut the selic rate 100bp. Chile´s BCCH will likely cut the monetary policy rate by 25bp. In other data In the US, after a softer than expected payrolls report, attention turns to inflation and retail sales. Chair Yellen will also be speaking on Monday. In the Eurozone, quiet week with industrial production, the German ZEW and final CPI. Two (and four) weeks to go to French elections. In the UK, focus will be on inflation and the labor market report. BOE Governor Carney is also speaking at a Fintech conference alongside Chancellor Philip Hammond. In Japan, we get trade balance, PPI, machine orders, money supply and governor Kuroda speaking at a BoJ event. In Australia, focus will be on the labor market report, while the RBA also releases its half-yearly Financial Stability Review. We also get housing financing and business and consumer sentiment surveys. A daily breakdown of key events from DB's Jim Reid This morning in Europe the only data of note is the Bank of France business sentiment reading and Sentix investor confidence reading for the Euro area. Over in the US the sole release is the labour market conditions index reading for March. Tuesday kicks off in the UK where we will get the March CPI/RPI/PPI data docket, while Euro area industrial production for February and the April ZEW survey for the Euro area will also be closely watched. Over in the US tomorrow data includes the NFIB small business optimism reading for March and JOLTS job openings in February. Japan gets things going on Wednesday where PPI and machine orders data is due out, while shortly after we’ll get the March CPI and PPI prints in China. During the European session the focus is likely to be on the UK again with the February and March employment indicators due out. In the US the only data is the March import price index and March monthly budget statement. Thursday looks set to be an important morning for data in China with the March trade numbers due out. In Europe we are due to do get CPI reports in Germany and France along with the BoE credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys in the UK. In the US the calendar finally picks up with initial jobless claims, March PPI and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading all due. As a reminder, Friday is Good Friday with equity markets closed in the US and most of Europe (Treasury market shuts at midday too) however there is some important data due in the US still with the March CPI report and also March retail sales data and February business inventories. Away from the data, the only Fedspeak this week is from Fed Chair Yellen this evening when she is due to speak at the University of Michigan (with Q&A expected) and then Kashkari on Tuesday. Away from that, the IMF is due to release the analytical chapters from its April 2017 World Economic Report today. The ECB’s Constancio is also due to present the ECB’s annual report to an EU parliamentary committee today. With regards to earnings, JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report on Thursday. * * * Finally, here is Goldman's breakdown of key events only in the US, together with consensus expectations: The key economic releases this week are the CPI and retail sales reports on Friday. In addition, there are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials, including a speech by Fed Chair Yellen on Monday. Monday, April 10 04:10 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will participate in a moderated conversation with the Dean of Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. Chair Yellen is expected to take questions from the audience and through Twitter. 07:30 PM St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give the opening address at a macro and finance workshop at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia, on the topic of “Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound.” Tuesday, April 11 06:00 AM NFIB small business optimism index, March (consensus 104.9, last 105.3) 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, February (last 5,626) 01:45 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will participate in a moderated discussion as a part of a meeting of the Minnesota Business Partnership in Minneapolis. Audience Q&A is expected. Wednesday, April 12 08:30 AM Import price index, March (consensus -0.2%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects import prices to decline by 0.2% in March (mom nsa). In the February report, the headline index advanced 0.2%, primarily driven by a pickup in the prices of foods, feeds, and beverages. 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations, April (last +2.0%) 10:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan will discuss economic conditions and monetary policy at the annual meeting of the Cornerstone Credit Union League in Fort Worth, Texas. 02:00 PM Monthly budget statement, March (consensus -$167.0bn, last -$108.0bn) Thursday, April 13 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 8 (GS 250k, consensus 245k, last 234k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended April 1 (consensus 2,024k, last 2,028k): We estimate initial jobless claims rebounded 16k to 250k. Last week’s 25k drop fully reversed the elevated readings of the previous two weeks that we believe reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella (which hit the US during the week of March 18). However, the current level of jobless claims now appears abnormally low in a few large states such as California and New York, where we see scope for a rebound. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue. 08:30 AM PPI final demand, March (GS -0.1%, consensus flat, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, March (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We estimate that headline PPI declined 0.1% in March, reflecting lower energy prices. We estimate PPI ex-food, energy and trade services rose by 0.2%. Producer prices rose by 0.3% in February, supported by firming prices of energy and food. The PPI excluding food and energy was also firmer than expected, increasing by 0.3% following +0.4% in January. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, April preliminary (GS 96.0, consensus 96.5, last 96.9): We estimate the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined 0.9pt to 96.0 in April, after pulling back 0.7pt in the March final reading (relative to the preliminary measure from the first half of the month). Our forecast reflects some sequential softness in higher frequency consumer surveys as well as an expected drag from the late-March stock market sell-off. Given the April rebound in gas prices, we also note the possibility of a further rebound in the report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations, which rose to 2.4% in last month’s final reading from a record low 2.2% in the preliminary report. Friday, April 14 US equity and bond markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday.; 08:30 AM CPI (mom), March (GS flat, consensus flat, last +0.1%); Core CPI (mom), March (GS +0.15%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); CPI (yoy), March (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.6%, last +2.7%); Core CPI (yoy), March (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.2%): We expect a below-trend increase in core CPI in the March report, reflecting a second monthly decline in the communications category related to the release of Verizon unlimited data plans. We also expect colder and snowier weather (sa) to weigh on apparel prices, particularly for early-spring merchandise. Additionally, we note the possibility of a drop in airfares given the combination of their sharp recent improvement and the March decline in oil prices. Offsetting these negative factors, we expect second-derivative improvement in used car price inflation. Our estimate of 0.15% (mom) for core CPI would result in the year-over-year rate accelerating a tenth to 2.3%. We expect a decline in seasonally adjusted energy prices to weigh on headline CPI, where we estimate a flat month-to-month reading, though we expect the year-over-year rate to remain stable at 2.7%. 08:30 AM Retail sales, March (GS -0.5%, consensus -0.1%, last +0.1%); Retail sales ex-auto, March (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, March (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Core retail sales, March (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%): Following significant delays in February, tax refund distributions had converged close to normal seasonal levels by the first week of March, a few weeks after the legal deadline constraining the IRS had passed. While this would suggest a sharp reacceleration in March spending activity, industry sources suggest the sequential improvement was fairly muted. Additionally, Winter Storm Stella – which impacted the Midwest and East Coast in the middle of the month – seems likely to weigh on sales in the building materials, food service, and mall-based discretionary categories. On the positive side, storm-related preparations seem likely to boost sales in the grocery category; Factoring in these considerations, we estimate the key retail control gauge rose 0.3% (mom) and expect a more muted 0.1% rise in the ex-auto ex-gas component. We also estimate a 0.2% decline in ex-auto sales reflecting the 6% pullback in gas prices (mom sa). We estimate headline retail sales fell even more sharply (-0.5% mom) due to the pullback in auto SAAR in the month. 10:00 AM Business inventories, February (consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): Consensus expects business inventories to increase 0.3% in February, in line with the pace of growth in January. Source: BofA; DB, GS

09 апреля, 19:01

Australia advised to play it cool in a hot market

IN their struggle to cool red-hot property prices, Australia’s authorities are ratcheting up measures that could dent the whole market but are avoiding more targeted steps that have had some success in

07 апреля, 22:23

Iron Ore Prices Plunge Into Bear Market Amid Record China Glut

Just a week ago we warned of China's record glut of Iron Ore (enough to build 13,000 Eiffel Towers), and following warnings from Barclays and RBA of a likely pullback, futures in Dalian sank to lowest since November as steel sags. Bloomberg reports that iron ore is getting beaten back down in a told-you-so rout after a procession of analysts, Australia’s central bank and miners themselves delivered warnings that gains were unsustainable, with the latest blow landed by the world’s top shipper saying prices are set to revisit the $50s. Ore with 62 percent content in Qingdao fell 6.8 percent to $75.45 a dry ton, entering a bear market after declining more than 20 percent from a Feb. 21 peak, according to Metal Bulletin Ltd. The price has now erased all of this year’s gains, declining 3.1 percent. Earlier in Asia, futures in Dalian plunged 6.2 percent to the lowest close in five months as steel sank.   Iron ore is in retreat after hitting the highest level since 2014 in February amid concern that rising supplies from mines in Brazil, Australia and possibly China will again exceed demand, with warnings from Barclays and BHP Billiton  flagging losses. There’s also concern that additional curbs in China may hurt consumption. “There’s an expectation that tighter credit conditions in China will lead to some downturn in property construction in the second half,” said Ric Spooner, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in Sydney. “At the same time, both seaborne and domestic Chinese iron ore supply looks likely to increase. With Chinese port inventories remaining high, traders are seeing downside risk.” This is certainly not helping the concept of a global reflation trade as yet again, massive credit-fueled capital mis-allocation simply papers over short-term cracks leaving a bigger more damaging hangover in its wake... unless just a little more credit fueled zombification will help.

05 апреля, 13:41

China Surge, Rising Oil Push Global Stocks Higher; S&P Futures Flat As Fed Minutes Loom

European stocks rebounded after a downbeat start, aided by a return to the post-Euro open momentum ignition in the USDJPY while Asian stocks rose after China shares surged 1.5%, the most since August. For now S&P futures are fractionally in the red, although we expect them to turn progressively higher as US traders get to their desks to frontrun the now traditional "post open" ramp. Treasuries steadied ahead of today's Fed Minutes release and tomorrow's key weekly political event, the first meeting between Trump and China's president. Elsewhere, oil continued its rise while gold declined from a multi-week high. In an otherwise quiet session, China was the outlier as the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.48%, the most since August, while Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1.4 percent as both markets reopened after a holiday. China announced Saturday it would develop an economic zone in Xiongan, Hebei province, prompting prospective buyers to throng to the region, snapping up local construction companies many of which soared by the daily 10% limit, while commodities such as coking coal, iron ore and steel rebar soaring. Source: @Yuantalks For once it was not the US but France that grabbed the political spotlight, where last night we had the second of three live televised presidential debates. As DB's Jim Reid recounts, much like the first it tested viewers’ stamina again with the clock running close to 4 hours in the end. In terms of the key takeaways the general feeling was that it was the six less popular candidates which largely stole the show, frequently questioning and attacking the front runners. Of the candidates in contention, Macron was largely on the defensive for most of the night, standing his ground but never seemingly coming under too much pressure. Melenchon was the most attacking. Fillon failed to really standout and took on a barrage of attacks on ethics and Hamon was largely in the shadows. Le Pen was heavily questioned at times and looked under pressure and very much in defence-first mode. Le Pen’s comments were also typically defiant and she closed out by making remarks including to “take back our sovereignty”, “civilisation in danger” and also “the owners of their country with the right to a border”. In terms of the early results an Elabe poll covering 1,024 viewers following the debate found that Melenchon was seen as the most convincing with 25% of the votes followed in order by Macron (21%), Fillon (15%) and Le Pen (11%). A separate Opinionway survey had Melenchon, Macron and Fillon all tied on 18% a piece followed by Le Pen with 11%. So that result would suggest that the debate has done little to further Le Pen’s chances with the Elabe pollster highlighting that the fierce competition on the anti-European issues contributed to Le Pen’s mediocre score. As we said following the first debate though, Hilary Clinton was seen as the comfortable winner in all the US Presidential debates so it’s worth taking these results in context. Interestingly leading into the debate yesterday the 2y OAT-Bund spread hit a near 5-year high at 47bps, surpassing the high from earlier the year in February when the spread hit 42bps. To be fair this might be as much to do with the supply and demand issues for bunds as anything else. In any case, with polls showing Marine Le Pen was far from convincing at the latest French presidential debate, risk-off sentiment has lost momentum and risk reversals in EUR/JPY have kept moving higher. Two-week volatility smile steepens in favor of EUR calls, while puts on two-month tenor flatten slightly. Global markets may have reflected some of this with the the MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 0.1 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 added 0.2 percent after fluctuating between gains and losses. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed. The underlying gauge advanced 0.1 percent on Tuesday. Crude continued its advance before DOE oil inventory data which is expected to show U.S. stockpiles retreated from a record. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.2% to $51.64 a barrel, adding to Tuesday’s advance. Base metals increased after a plan to develop an economic zone near Beijing boosted the outlook for demand, with zinc climbing 1.8 percent as a smelter in Peru was also affected by flooding Oil and gas companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index toward a second day of gains after the gauge fluctuated in early trading. The greenback, 10-year U.S. Treasuries and futures for the S&P 500 were all  little changed. South Africa’s rand reversed gains after President Jacob Zuma survived calls to quit. As Bloomberg reiterates, investors and markets remain in a holding pattern, awaiting the next major catalyst to either end or extend the global rally that pushed stocks to a record last month. A series of major data releases this week, culminating in a payrolls report Friday forecast to show 175,000 jobs added by U.S. employers in March,  is offering clues to the strength of the world’s biggest economy. As Reuters notes, the dollar lost its grip on earlier gains as concerns over a North Korean missile test worsened sentiment ahead of the summit between the U.S. and Chinese leaders. Topping the agenda at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida will be whether he makes good on his threat to use U.S.-China trade ties to pressure Beijing to do more to rein in its nuclear-armed neighbor North Korea, which is working to develop missiles capable of hitting the United States. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a trade-weighted basket of six peers, was down on the day at 100.48 , as slumping U.S. Treasury yields also gave investors little incentive to buy dollars. "The meetings are expected to be informal, unscripted discussions of how the two countries will address, but not immediately resolve, their differences," said strategists at Morgan Stanley in a note to clients. "Any commentary on how the US specifically wants to try to reduce the trade deficit with China will be watched by FX investors," the strategists wrote. Meanwhile, oil climbed to a near one-month high on signs of a gradual tightening in global oil inventories and on concern about a supply outage at a field in the United Kingdom's North Sea that feeds into an international benchmark price. Brent crude futures the international benchmark for oil, were up 1 percent at $54.73 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures was also up 1 percent. London copper rallied as Chinese traders returned from a two-day break to buy up metals following brighter global manufacturing reports. Zinc and nickel tracked a rally in steel. Safe-haven gold steadied helped by sluggish moves in riskier assets. Spot gold edged up 0.1 percent. Key near-term catalyst include minutes from the Fed’s March meeting, scheduled to be released Wednesday, and a similar account of the ECB’s latest policy gathering is due Thursday. China’s president will meet his U.S. counterpart for two days starting Thursday. U.S. non-farm payrolls are due Friday. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Energy and material names have soared in early trade to see the commodity-heavy FTSE outperform its European counterparts The big data release this morning was the UK services PMI number, which exceeded expectations to print 55.0. Looking ahead, highlights include US Services PMI, ADP Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, DoEs and FOMC Minutes Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,354.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.06% to 380.24 MXAP up 0.3% to 147.61 MXAPJ up 0.5% to 482.40 Nikkei up 0.3% to 18,861.27 Topix up 0.01% to 1,504.66 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 24,400.80 Shanghai Composite up 1.5% to 3,270.31 Sensex up 0.1% to 29,949.61 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,876.20 Kospi down 0.01% to 2,160.85 German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.25% Euro up 0.04% to 1.0678 per US$ Brent Futures up 1.1% to $54.77/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 4.7 bps to 1.981% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 1.607% Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,254.00 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.09% to 100.45 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Trump Officials Alarmed China May Bid for Westinghouse Unit North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Before Xi-Trump Meeting Fed Leak Probe Dooms Lacker But Leaves Key Question: Who Leaked? Deutsche Bank Loses Senior Executives After Bonuses Slashed Zuma Said to Survive Calls to Quit in South Africa’s ANC ChemChina Wins U.S. Approval for $43 Billion Syngenta Deal Taser CEO to Make Announcement in Live Broadcast Tomorrow JAB Holding Said in Advanced Talks to Acquire Panera Bread Euronet-MoneyGram Talks Said to Progress Slowly on Data Access McDonald’s Names Morgan Flatley as U.S. Chief Marketing Officer Cheniere Head Sees 30 New LNG Trains Needed to Meet 2030 Demand Energy Transfer Expects Dakota Access in Service in Coming Weeks Devon, Chesapeake Get Sierra Club’s Quake Fracking Suit Tossed CME Cuts Margin Requirement for Front-Month WTI Oil by 6.9% Plains Files Rate for Bridger-to-DAPL Service Effective April 15 Euro-Area Economy Accelerates Less Than Forecast on Services Asia equity markets traded choppy following the mild gains on Wall St. which was led by the energy sector after WTI crude futures reclaimed the USD 51/bbl level to the upside. ASX 200 (+0.3%) swung between gains and losses as strength in commodity-related sectors was counterbalanced by losses in financials, while Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) saw a similar indecisive tone as USD/JPY and JPY-crosses teetered. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.5%) were higher on return from holiday despite the PBoC refraining from liquidity injections, with the mainland outperforming amid strength in materials after a 7% surge in coking coal prices due to supply concerns following Cyclone Debbie. 10yr JGBs traded flat amid an indecisive tone in the region, while the BoJ's presence in the market for a respectable JPY 1.135t1n of JGBs failed to spur demand, as the bank also slightly reduced its buying in 1yr-3yr maturities. PBoC refrained from conducting open market operations today, for a net drain of CNY 90bIn. Top Asia News China Market Access in Spotlight as First Trump-Xi Meeting Nears China Likely to Be Named Currency Manipulator by U.S.: StanChart Energy and material names have soared in early trade to see the commodity-heavy FTSE outperform its European counterparts on what has been an otherwise dreary morning for equities. Other than the FTSE 100, indices are flat across Europe, with little in the terms of a tangible trend in direction so far this week. On a more macro scale, services PMIs have been the main focus of the session, with French and Eurozone readings both printing lower than the preliminary readings, however any impact on financial markets has been offset by the German composite beating on Exp. As such fixed income markets have been particularly muted, with Bunds lower by a modest 10 ticks. Gilts slipped on the latest services PMIs, with the stellar reading seeing the June'17 futures slips below yesterday's 128.22 nadir with bears now eyeing a potential test of a minor Fib retracement level at 127.91. Top European News U.K. Services Grow Faster Than Forecast; Price Surge Intensifies Sick of Brexit Limbo, Foreign Bankers Are Asking to Be Sent Home German Cabinet Backs Facebook Bill to Counter Fake News, Hate Wood Group Gains After Raising Expected Synergies From Amec Deal EU’s Juncker Says No Brexit Deal Would Mean Everyone Loses Serb Protests Against ‘Dictatorship’ Spread After Vucic Elected OATs Gain With Small Relief Rally as Le Pen Struggles in Debate EU’s Verhofstadt: Brexit Is a Cat-Fight That Got Out of Hand Seadrill Plunges for Second Day Amid Speculation Over Bankruptcy In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after a two-day gain. The euro edged lower to $1.0668. The pound climbed 0.3 percent to $1.248, advancing for the first time in three days as U.K services grew faster than economists expected. The South African rand jumped as much as 1.1 percent before falling 1.1 percent. The big data release this morning was the UK services PMI number, which exceeded expectations to print 55.0. This went against the manufacturing and construction components as new orders were attracted by the weak exchange rate, but despite this, thin market conditions have made for a tight range in Cable, as support ahead of 1.2400 has been tempered by sellers coming in ahead of 1.2500. Similarly in EUR/GBP, .8545-50 and 0.8600 limits contain. Range bound markets further highlighted by a 25 tick range in EUR/USD, where a test of 1.0700 on the upside was rebuffed. The USD perspective has been largely behind this, with US Treasury yields grinding higher, but to a modest degree as yet. This has produced a tentative move higher in USD/JPY, but we continue to trade south of the 111.00 level, but we have now twice survived a test on 110.00. A modest recovery in Copper has given AUD some relief after yesterday's selling across the board. No real change in sentiment at the RBA, citing concerns over domestic debt levels but cautiously optimistic on the global outlook, so yield plays will carry favour here when the risk mood is calm. The same goes for the NZD, but we are getting pulled further away from 0.7000, but 0.6900 will be hard fought. In commodities, the Bloomberg Commodities Index rose to a one-month high, buoyed by oil and base metals. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.2 percent to $51.64 a barrel, adding to Tuesday’s advance. Base metals increased after a plan to develop an economic zone near Beijing boosted the outlook for demand, with zinc climbing 1.8 percent as a smelter in Peru was also affected by flooding. With oil tipping above the $51.50 mark, we could see some renewed consolidation inside these limits, but traders will be looking ever closely to the inventory data for signs of further impact from the production cuts. The market is still hoping for an extension to the agreement, and this hope reflects some of the recent gains seen. Base metals are up right across the board, with Copper up another 1.5% today, but outpaced by Nickel which is up near 2.0% so far. Gold has come back off the highs, where $1260 looks to be providing some clear resistance. Silver continues to stall ahead of the USD18.40-50 area, with USD resilience weighing on both. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus should be on the final March services and composite PMI revisions where we’ll also get a look at the data for the UK and periphery. This afternoon in the US we will also get the final PMI revisions along with the ISM non-manufacturing for March (expected to decline to 57.0 from 57.6) and the ADP employment change print for March. The consensus for the latter is 185k while our US economists are forecasting a below market 140k. Later this evening we will also get the aforementioned FOMC minutes from the March 15th meeting. Away from that there is no Fedspeak today although over at the BoE policy maker Vlieghe is due to speak this afternoon in London. US event calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.8% 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 185,000, prior 298,000 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 53.1, prior 52.9; US Composite PMI, prior 53.2 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 57, prior 57.6 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap We’re kicking off in France this morning where last night we had the second of three live televised presidential debates. Much like the first it tested viewers’ stamina again with the clock running close to 4 hours in the end. In terms of the key takeaways the general feeling was that it was the six less popular candidates which largely stole the show, frequently questioning and attacking the front runners. Of the candidates in contention, Macron was largely on the defensive for most of the night, standing his ground but never seemingly coming under too much pressure. Melenchon was the most attacking. Fillon failed to really standout and took on a barrage of attacks on ethics and Hamon was largely in the shadows. Le Pen was heavily questioned at times and looked under pressure and very much in defence first mode. Le Pen’s comments were also typically defiant and she closed out by making remarks including to “take back our sovereignty”, “civilisation in danger” and also “the owners of their country with the right to a border”. In terms of the early results an Elabe poll covering 1,024 viewers following the debate found that Melenchon was seen as the most convincing with 25% of the votes followed in order by Macron (21%), Fillon (15%) and Le Pen (11%). A separate Opinionway survey had Melenchon, Macron and Fillon all tied on 18% a piece followed by Le Pen with 11%. So that result would suggest that the debate has done little to further Le Pen’s chances with the Elabe pollster highlighting that the fierce competition on the anti-European issues contributed to Le Pen’s mediocre score. As we said following the first debate though, Hilary Clinton was seen as the comfortable winner in all the US Presidential debates so it’s worth taking these results in context. Interestingly leading into the debate yesterday the 2y OAT-Bund spread hit a near 5-year high at 47bps, surpassing the high from earlier the year in February when the spread hit 42bps. To be fair this  might be as much to do with the supply and demand issues for bunds as anything else. The ECB isn't helping as we'll see below. Price action in and around the debate hasn’t been particularly material however and if anything the Euro is firmer and is in fact up about +0.40% from yesterday’s intraday low. We’ll wait to see if there is much of a reaction in markets in Europe when they open this morning but the focus in the Asia session has for the most part turned over to the news of another missile launch by North Korea into the Sea of Japan. This has been confirmed by the Pentagon and as a reminder comes just before President Trump is due to host China’s President Xi Jinping tomorrow. That news hasn’t failed to stem what has been a mostly positive start to trading led by the reopening of bourses in China where the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up over 1%. The Hang Seng is also +0.29% while the Nikkei is +0.27%. The Kospi and ASX are currently flat, as are US equity futures. The moves in Asia this morning follow a fairly directionless session on Wall Street last night. The S&P 500 passed between gains and losses 28 times during the day before finishing with a modest +0.06% gain. While Banks underperformed (-0.34%) they did recover from heavier losses at the open helped by some comments from President Trump around Dodd-Frank, and on separate reports on tax talks. The President confirmed that his administration is working on changes to the Dodd-Frank act which is intended to make it easier for banks to lend and which will include a “very major haircut”. On the tax front  the debate was about an article in the Washington Post which suggested that the Trump administration is exploring a VAT and carbon tax as part of the tax code overhaul, although this has been somewhat downplayed by a White House spokesman since. Meanwhile energy stocks had a decent session after energy prices crept higher. Despite no data or newsflow, WTI Oil (+1.57%) rose for the fifth time in the last six sessions to close above $51/bbl for the first time since March 7th. Natural Gas (+5.27%) also had its strongest day in almost three months and closed at the highest since January 27th. It’s worth noting that US HY energy spreads have now hit the tightest (446bps) since March 8th and are about 40bps tighter relative to the wides of the year made just last week. Elsewhere, Treasuries did their best to reverse much of Monday’s rally with the 10y yield rising +4.1bps to close at 2.361%. It’s hovering around similar levels this morning. Instead of the usual focus on deciphering Fedspeak the focus was instead on the resignation of the Richmond Fed’s Jeffrey Lacker with immediate effect following the news that he had disclosed confidential information in an analyst meeting. Lacker was due to retire later this year and while the news should have no real monetary policy impact (he was a non-voter) one would expect the Fed Chair to be questioned about the issue. While we’re on the Fed today we will get the FOMC minutes from last month’s meeting where it’ll be interesting to see how much of a debate around tapering of the balance sheet there was given all the recent forward guidance. The most significant news yesterday for credit was the latest ECB CSPP data which was released a day later than usual yesterday and incorporated the data up to month end and was the last release before we see the first impact of tapering. Last week they bought an average of €335mn corporates per day which was up from the prior week's non-holiday period low (€308mn) but below the daily average of €365mn since the program started. So a continuation in the slowdown in the run-up to QE tapering. We'll see next week if there is more trimming as the overall buying program officially reduces. One could argue credit easing via CSPP makes more sense than PSPP, given scarcity issues in government bonds, and so they could decide to continue CSPP at the usual pace even as the broader QE gets trimmed. On the other hand, making the QE cut fall squarely on govies might send the wrong signal to the periphery/semi-core. There are no clues at the moment as to how they split the taper other than perhaps the hint of a slowdown in corporate purchases in the last two weeks. My personal view is that they do taper CSPP as well as PSPP. Related to this we learnt that the average maturity of German bund purchases (the benchmark for Euro credit) remained at very low levels (4.72 vs. 4.34 last month) in March. In December and January this was over 12 and 9 respectively. This matters for credit as if the ECB buying is concentrated at this maturity bucket it's more competing with the average life of the credit index and as such makes it more difficult for credit to keep up with the performance of bunds in what is essentially a risk on environment. For more on this see our credit bite (https://goo.gl/ddv05Y) we published last month after the initial shock shortening of average life of bund purchases. The rest of the macro data did little to really move the dial. In the US, the February trade balance revealed a deficit of $43.6bn which was a little narrower than the consensus had expected and also $4.6bn narrower than the January deficit. Meanwhile factory orders were reported as rising +1.0% mom in February which was in line with expectations and so putting them up +7.3% yoy. Durable goods orders in February were revised up one-tenth at the final count to +1.8% mom however core capex orders were confirmed as declining -0.1% mom. In Europe the only data concerned the retail sales numbers for February which printed at +0.7% mom for the Euro area and more than expected. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the main focus should be on the final March services and composite PMI revisions where we’ll also get a look at the data for the UK and periphery. This afternoon in the US we will also get the final PMI revisions along with the ISM non-manufacturing for March (expected to decline to 57.0 from 57.6) and the ADP employment change print for March. The consensus for the latter is 185k while our US economists are forecasting a below market 140k. Later this evening we will also get the aforementioned FOMC minutes from the March 15th meeting. Away from that there is no Fedspeak today although over at the BoE policy maker Vlieghe is due to speak this afternoon in London.

04 апреля, 21:25

Australia Keeps Rates Unchanged: ETFs in Focus

Australia forced to continue its 'do nothing' strategy on interest rates, as it battles rising house prices and subdued economic growth.

04 апреля, 16:02

Резервный банк Австралии оставил основную процентную ставку на отметке 1,5%

Во вторник Резервный банк Австралии объявил о решении сохранить ключевую процентную ставку без изменений на рекордно низкой отметке 1,5%. Отметим, что основная процентная ставка в Австралии находится на текущем уровне уже восьмой месяц подряд. Как отмечается в заявлении Резервного банка, текущий уровень процентных ставок поддерживается благодаря повышению уверенности в деловой среде, а также показателям роста занятости даже несмотря на некоторое повышение уровня безработицы и умеренные темпы роста новых рабочих мест. Что касается ситуации на рынке жилья, Резервный банк Австралии считает, что объемы ипотечного кредитования по-прежнему превосходят доходы населения. "Установление строгих стандартов кредитования, о которых недавно было объявлено в рамках регуляционных мер, должно помочь снизить риски связанные с растущим уровнем кредиторской задолженности", - заявил председатель Резервного банка Филип Лоу. Источник: FxTeam

04 апреля, 13:39

Futures Slide As Weak Start To Q2 Continues Amid Global Growth, Political Jitters

Global stocks were pressured by a poor start to the second quarter in the US, where carmakers reported disappointing sales data, slamming auto stocks around the globe. The selling has persisted for a second day, with Asian stocks and European shares all partially in the red today after their biggest decline in two weeks. Car sector is biggest mover in Europe, offsetting gains in financial services and media. A modest flight to safety saw gold strengthen with the dollar edging up against a basket of major currencies but losing ground against the safe-haven Japanese yen while South Africa’s dropped on a ratings downgrade. U.S. index futures declined after stocks fell close to their 50-day moving average and as investors weigh risks to the economy’s outlook, including whether fiscal stimulus will be carried out. S&P 500 contracts expiring in June slipped 0.2 percent to 2,351.50 at 6:36 a.m. in New York. The benchmark dropped Monday, the first day of the second quarter, with falling bond yields weighing on banks and energy companies, while automakers slid as a collapse in monthly sales offered a warning that Americans may have become more thrifty. A gauge of stocks around the world fell a third day after auto companies’ monthly sales offered a warning that Americans may be spending less on cars even with record auto debt available. South Africa’s rand extended declines for a seventh day after the country lost its investment-grade credit rating from S&P Global Ratings for the first time in 17 years; on Tuesday the ZAR fell as much as 1.9 percent before recovering to trade down 1.1 percent at 13.83 per dollar while bank shares tumbled after the credit rating cut in response to President Jacob Zuma's dismissal of his finance minister, Pravin Gordhan, last week. Yields on South African dollar-denominated government bonds rose, with the 10-year benchmark yielding nearly 5 percent. The concerns surrounding the big picture, and specifically reflation trade, remain the same: as Bloomberg summarizes, investors are taking stock ahead of a key U.S. payrolls report on Friday and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting on Wednesday. After the best quarter for U.S. equities since 2013, traders are starting to question whether optimism about U.S. President Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies has gone too far. Veteran money manager Bob Doll wrote in an April 3 letter to clients that sentiment on the economy may be too high, leaving investors vulnerable to negative surprises. “The hard data is beginning to wobble and that’s going to cause some of the Trump trades to come under pressure,” Tim Haywood, investment director at GAM (UK) Ltd. said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “Dents in car sales are perhaps an early warning of a little bit of weakness in the U.S. economy.” Automaker stocks were the main drag on Tokyo shares on Tuesday; the Nikkei fell 0.9 percent to a 10-week low, also hit by the impact of the strong yen on exporters. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3 percent, having hit a 21-month high last week. The MSCI All Country World Index fell 0.1%, extending its longest decline in almost two weeks. The Stoxx Europe 600 index was unchanged, as gains in energy shares offset declines in auto stocks. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.2% . The S&P cash index slid 0.2% on Monday after a persistent rebound was catalyzed by relentless selling of VIX futs. Gold topped $1,260 and is headed for the highest close since the aftermath of the U.S. election and the yen was the top performer among major currencies. The dollar rallied versus all of its Group-of-10 peers except the yen as risk-off sentiment gained traction with French elections firmly back in traders’ focus. On the European political front, today we get the second live and televised French presidential debate tonight so that is worth keeping an eye on. While first round polls still heavily favour a Macron-Le Pen one-two, Melenchon has gained additional support in recent weeks largely at the expense of Fillon and Hamon. Indeed the Ifop-Fiducial poll from Mar  30th-3rd April shows Macron and Le Pen as taking home 26% and 25.5% of the votes in the first round, followed then by Fillon with 17% and Melenchon with 15%. The same pollster had Melenchon with 11.5% of the votes back on March 20th and Fillon with 18%. Japan’s currency strengthened, with local banks adding longs as the new fiscal year got under way, according to foreign- exchange traders in Europe quoted by Bloomberg. With French presidential elections getting airtime and global equities under pressure this week, the yen drew haven demand. Risk-off-dominated flows meant the Swiss franc was also stronger, albeit in tighter ranges. "(The yen buying) is based on broad-based risk-off since yesterday. There was a tragedy in Russia and there may be some hedging-type buying ahead of the French presidential debate and also French elections in three weeks," said Yujiro Gato, currency analyst with Nomura in London. Dollar-yen was lower a third day as increased bearish momentum threatened February lows above the psychological level of 110. The euro and the Australian dollar fell to their lowest levels versus the yen in more than four months, with price action dropping below important technical levels. Moves in yen crosses may have been partially driven by a steepening in low-delta option structures. Implied volatilities were bid as demand for long vega positions gained traction on the back of increased risk-off sentiment, said the traders. Upcoming tier-one data out of the U.S. coupled with a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have also caused a lift of bids in options. The Bloomberg dollar index, or BBDXY, rose 0.2%, higher a second day; support came as Treasury yields attempted to rebound and pare Monday’s decline. Yields on low risk U.S. and German government bonds fell. falls. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were down 2 basis points at 2.33 percent after falling as low as 2.31 percent, its lowest in more than a month, in Asian trade. German 10-year yields touched their lowest level since March 1 and last stood at 0.26 percent, down 1.6 bps. Italy's bonds outperformed the rest of the euro zone on the prospect of help for two struggling Italian lenders. Yields on the bonds of Banca Popolare di Vincenza and Veneto Banca fell sharply after a European Commission spokesperson said late on Monday said there could be a solution on a bailout. talian 10-year government bond yields fell 2.7 bps to 2.3 percent. "Italy's banking sector has been a never-ending story, so any news pointing towards state support reduces the risk of a more severe development that could be the beginning of a banking crisis," said DZ Bank strategist Daniel Lenz. Today we get factory orders and durable goods data while the sole Fed spearker, Tarullo speaks in Princeton. * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk The subdued start to Q2 continues today, with equities picking up today where they left off yesterday, trading mixed with little in terms of firm direction Mixed trade across the board in FX to a larger degree, with the JPY buying finding its limits, notably ahead of 110.00 against the USD as Treasuries top out for now. Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade Balance, ECB's Draghi, ECB's Liikanen and Fed's Tarullo Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,351.5 STOXX Europe 600 donw 0.03% to 379.19 MXAP down 0.3% to 147.25 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 479.88 Nikkei down 0.9% to 18,810.25 Topix down 0.8% to 1,504.54 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 24,261.48 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,222.51 Sensex up 1% to 29,910.22 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,856.55 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,161.10 German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.262% Euro down 0.1% to 1.0657 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.4% to $52.92/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 2.028% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.637% Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,258.85 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 100.70 Top Overnight Nights Trump Cracks Down on Visa Program That Feeds Silicon Valley Seadrill Drops to Record Low as It Warns of Shareholder Losses ECB Said to See Vicenza, Veneto as Solvent, Needing $6.8 Billion Amazon Launches Business Procurement Service in U.K. Microsoft Reports Licensing Partnership With Casio CenterPoint Proposes $250m Transmission Project to Regulator Celgene Says Teva Submitted Application to Make Pomalyst Generic Kate Spade Falls on Report That Takeover Process Is Bogging Down BMW’s First 2017 Win Over Mercedes Narrows U.S. Luxury Race Bob Diamond Mounts Latest Comeback From U.K.’s Minor Leagues Intesa Insurance Unit Signs Partnership Deal With Aon Indonesia to Grant Freeport 8-Month License to Resume Exports Asian equity markets traded subdued amid holiday-thinned trade and following a lacklustre US close where sentiment was dampened by poor auto sales data for March. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was weighed by weakness in telecoms and financials, although the downside has been stemmed by buoyant commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 (-0.9%) lagged in the region amid a stronger JPY with Japanese auto makers also feeling the brunt from poor US sales, while markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong remained closed due to public holiday. 10yr JGBs trade higher with demand supported by safe-haven flows and after an encouraging 10yr auction where the b/c and accepted prices increased from last month, while the curve steepened with underperformance observed in the super long end. RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50% as expected and commented that unchanged policy is in line with growth and inflation targets. RBA also stated that the pick-up in inflation is expected to be gradual and that China faces medium term economic risks. Top Asian News U.S. Car Demand Collapses in Threat to Trump’s Factory Push FX OPTIONS: Yen Volatility Spread Shows France Risks Dominate CYBG/Virgin Money Have Strategic Reasons for Buying Co-Op: Citi Investa Office Gets Non-Binding Offer From Cromwell Property Topix Drops to Four-Month Low as Stronger Yen Pummels Exporters U.S. Curve Flattest in 5 Months as Fed Outlook Lifts Short End In European bourses, the subdued start to Q2 continues today, with equities picking up today where they left off yesterday, trading mixed with little in terms of firm direction. The energy sector continues its strong start to the quarter, with financials weighed on today by Deutsche Bank (-2.8%) as they enter their final day of their rights issuance, while Investec and Old Mutual are also at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 as they continue to feel the damage of their South African exposure. Fixed income markets have been pushing up across the board so far today, with European participants keeping an eye out for this evenings second French presidential election. With Macron seen as firm favourite after his performance in the last debate, a poor performance or any doubts of his ability to cross the finish line could see a widening of the GE/FR spread. Top European News French Candidates Return to Debate With Macron the Target Merkel’s Party in Dead Heat With SPD as Schulz Sustains Momentum WS Atkins May Be Subject to a Counterbid, Liberum Says Novo CEO Says He’s Interested in Biopharmaceutical Acquisitions Prysmian Top Italian Gainer; Goldman Raises PT on Market Trends Nordea Wins Competition Authority Backing in Bank Fee Dispute Mercedes, Bosch Join Forces to Accelerate Rollout of Robo- Taxis Gibraltar Spat Shows How Bumpy the Road to Brexit Will Likely Be In currencies, it has been mixed trade across the board in FX to a larger degree, with the JPY buying finding its limits, notably ahead of 110.00 against the USD as Treasuries top out for now. 10Yr yields have found support again ahead of 2.30%, and this serves as a firm prop, though we are watching Wall Street from here. The yen rose 0.3% to 110.50 per dollar, after climbing at least 0.4% in each of the previous two sessions. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2 percent. The South African rand dropped 1.1 percent. The currency has tumbled 11 percent over the past seven days, the longest streak since August, amid a cabinet purge by President Jacob Zuma. The euro fell 0.1 percent and the British pound was 0.3 percent weaker. EUR/USD has been tight on 1.0650 however, with EUR/JPY sales taking the cross rate below 118.00. GBP/JPY has dropped under 138.00 accordingly, but is finding some support here as cross rate sellers coming in ahead of 0.8600 in EUR/GBP. This is in line with Cable support into the low 1.2400's, and despite another PMI miss (construction — not a big one!), overstretched short positioning in the Pound is starting to tell. EU retail sales saw a marked pick up, but is of limited relevance in the current climate. The ECB's head Draghi is speaking in Frankfurt later today, but few are expecting any verbiage on monetary policy. In commodities, oil markets are looking a little resilient at present, seeing limited movement as Libyan output resumed. Inventory data is still a concern, but as OPEC have been pointing out, the impact of the production cuts have yet to hit levels, and there is the ongoing hope that the output agreement can be extended into H1. WTI sticks close to USD50.00, while Brent has traded a touch over $53.00. Weakness in base metals on the back of the softer than expected Caixin manufacturing PMIs. Copper has dipped back below USD2.60, but little momentum through here as yet. Precious metals are doing considerably better however, as the USD drop off pushes Gold back to USD1260. Silver has solidified its footing above USD18.00, and is now pushing higher again.  Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is fairly thin in Europe this morning with Euro area retail sales data the only release of note, and which printed a modest beat coming in at 0.7% vs Exp. 0.5%. In the US this afternoon we’ll get the February trade balance reading as well as February factory orders (+1.0% mom expected) and the final revisions to the February durable and capital goods orders data. Away from the data the Fed’s Tarullo is scheduled to speak at 4.30pm while the ECB’s Draghi speaks this afternoon at 2.30pm BST. Away from that we’ll get the second live and televised French presidential debate tonight so that is worth keeping an eye on. While first round polls still heavily favour a Macron-Le Pen one-two, Melenchon has gained additional support in recent weeks largely at the expense of Fillon and Hamon. Indeed the Ifop-Fiducial poll from Mar  30th-3rd April shows Macron and Le Pen as taking home 26% and 25.5% of the votes in the first round, followed then by Fillon with 17% and Melenchon with 15%. The same pollster had Melenchon with 11.5% of the votes back on March 20th and Fillon with 18%. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $44.6b deficit, prior $48.5b deficit 10am: Factory Orders, est. 1.0%, prior 1.2% Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.3% Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.7%, prior 1.7% Durables Ex Transportation, prior 0.4% Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.1% Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 1.0% 4:30pm: Fed’s Tarullo speaks at Princeton University DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap In markets a new month and new quarter has so far been a bit of an unwelcome sight for risk assets. There didn’t appear to be one specific driver yesterday but a combination of some soft US data, the headlines around Trump and North Korea over the weekend and the news of a subway explosion in Russia all appeared to play a part in contributing to a slightly risk off tone to start the week. Following a fairly uneventful first half of the session the Stoxx 600 declined as the US session kicked into gear and eventually finished -0.49% to bring to an end a run of four consecutive gains. The S&P 500 closed -0.16% although in fairness did pare a bigger decline near the open. Even the VIX index hit the highest level in a week at one stage, before eventually ending the day flat. The more significant price action yesterday though was in bonds. Indeed on the day that the ECB kicked off its tapering process from €80bn to €60bn it was ironic to see govies rally sharply across the board in Europe. 10y Bund yields finished the day down 5.1bps at 0.273% - the strongest day since February 8th and the lowest closing yield since February 28th. Yields in Spain and Portugal were also 2.4bps and 6.9bps lower while yields in the likes of Switzerland, Netherlands and France were down anywhere from 2-5bps. It appears that this was partly to do with ECB board member Peter Praet’s comments which were the latest in the line of the depo hike backtracking. Praet said in an interview with Expansion that the ECB is not yet ready to signal any change in its policy stance and that there is “no number, period of time in months or anything like that which will determine when interest rates go up after the debt purchases end”. Meanwhile 10y Treasury yields also fell 6.8bps to 2.320% with the yield now the lowest since February 24th. A lot of focus in the US was on the soft auto sales data which showed that annualized sales fell to 16.53m in March (vs. 17.30m expected) from 17.47m. That is also the lowest print since February 2015. The other big data focus yesterday was the final March manufacturing PMI’s. In Europe there was no change to the final Euro area reading of 56.2 and so confirming a 0.8pt rise from February. Germany was also unrevised at 58.3 while France was revised down 0.1pts to 53.3. The UK data disappointed a little after dipping 0.3pts to 54.2 while in the periphery Italy rose to 55.7 (up 0.7pts) while Spain declined to 53.9 (down 0.9pts). In the US the PMI was revised down 0.1pts to 53.3 although the ISM dipped half a point to a still elevated 57.2. The ‘global’ March PMI was confirmed at 53.0 which is unchanged from the 69-month high February reading. To the latest in Asia now where with a number of markets closed, it’s been a fairly quiet overnight session. That said bourses are largely following the lead from Wall Street still with the Nikkei (-0.92%), Kospi (-0.23%) and ASX (-0.36%) all in the red. China and Hong Kong are both closed today. US equity index futures are also slightly in the red while there isn’t much to report in either FX or commodities. There has been a central bank meeting this morning however with the RBA, although as expected there were no surprises with the 1.5% cash rate left unchanged. Elsewhere, there wasn’t a huge amount more to report from yesterday’s session. The Fedspeak continued with the Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterating that 3 hikes this year remains appropriate as long as “things stay on track”. In EM the big story was in South Africa where S&P moved to downgrade South Africa’s foreign currency rating by one notch to junk (BB+) in the wake of the cabinet purge by President Zuma. Moody’s has also placed the sovereign’s rating on review for downgrade. The Rand sold off another -2.04% yesterday which follows the -7.88% tumble for the currency last week. Looking at the day ahead, the calendar is fairly thin in Europe this morning with Euro area retail sales data the only release of note. In the US this afternoon we’ll get the February trade balance reading as well as February factory orders (+1.0% mom expected) and the final revisions to the February durable and capital goods orders data. Away from the data the Fed’s Tarullo is scheduled to speak at 9.30pm BST while the ECB’s Draghi speaks this afternoon at 2.30pm BST. Away from that we’ll get the second live and televised French presidential debate tonight so that is worth keeping an eye on. While first round polls still heavily favour a Macron-Le Pen one-two, Melenchon has gained additional support in recent weeks largely at the expense of Fillon and Hamon. Indeed the Ifop-Fiducial poll from Mar  30th-3rd April shows Macron and Le Pen as taking home 26% and 25.5% of the votes in the first round, followed then by Fillon with 17% and Melenchon with 15%. The same pollster had Melenchon with 11.5% of the votes back on March 20th and Fillon with 18%.

04 апреля, 13:00

Главные новости

Главные новости- Представитель ФРС Харкер (скорее ястреб с правом голоса) ожидает еще два повышения ставки в этом году, но, по его мнению, нет аргументов для еще одного повышения ставки уже на следующем заседании. Он не ожидает резкого прекращения практики реинвестирования портфеля ФРС. Предпочел бы в большей степени сокращать портфель Treasuries, нежели портфель обеспеченных ипотекой бумаг (MBS). - Представитель ФРС Дадли (скорее голубь с правом голоса) заявил, что прогнозные материалы ФРС по ставкам являются прогнозами, а не обязательствами. - Аналитический отчет ФРБ Сан-Франциско заключил, что ставки имеют более значимое влияние на экономику, чем ранее предполагалось и “даже небольшой цикл ужесточения может произвести существенное воздействие”. - ЕС считает переговоры по превентивной рекапитализации итальянских банков Popolare Vicenza и Veneto Banca конструктивными, ожидает решения “в течение ближайших недель”. ЕЦБ видит необходимость в наращивании капитала на 6.4 млрд. евро. - Бундесбанк и германский регулятор BaFin проведут стресс-тесты более чем 1500 мелких германских банков в ближайшие месяцы. - Помощь от фондов ЕС для Греции составила более чем 10 млрд. евро с июля 2015 года, или 6% греческого ВВП, сообщает Bild. - Продажи автомобилей в США в марте упали сильнее, чем ожидалось, с 17.47 млн. в год до 16.53 млн. в год (прогноз 17.3 млн.) - ЦБ Австралии оставил ставку неизменной на уровне 1.5%, как и ожидалось.Источник: FxTeam

04 апреля, 11:20

Dollar Gains Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

US President Trump and the Chinese president Xi Jinping, are scheduled to meet in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, this Thursday April 6. There are some sensitive issues between the US and China, such as trade protectionism, currency manipulation, South China Sea claims and North Korea’s nuclear program. Trump stated that if China doesn’t take actions to rein in the development of nuclear strength in North Korea then the US will act alone. President Xi expressed in mid-March that “the mutual benefits between the two nations outweighs the conflicts with cooperation as the only right choice for long term development”. On Monday evening, FOMC voting member Harker stated that “the Fed is likely to raise rates twice more this year” which is in line with the Fed’s “gradual” rate hike pace. USD strengthened this morning during early European session with the dollar index testing the 100.50 resistance level. US non-farm payroll and unemployment for March will be released this Friday at 13:30 BST. The US labour market has remained solid, seeing more than 200,000 job gains per month in average over the past six months. This morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that rates will remain unchanged at 1.5% in line with expectations. However, the RBA made a dovish statement as the latest unemployment rate rose to a 13-month high. AUD/USD hit a 3-week low of 0.7561 this morning breaking the significant psychological support level at 0.7600. Economic data for today is thin. UK construction PMI (Mar) to be released at 09:30 BST will likely affect GBP and GBP crosses. The US trade balance is released at 13:30 BST with Fed governor Tarullo making a speech at 21:30 BST. The European Central Bank president Draghi will make a speech at 15:30 BST today, it will likely affect the Euro and Euro crosses. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will make a speech at 08:15 BST on Wednesday April 5. Yen has been one of the best performing currencies over the past few months, as the recent risk events such as Trump’s healthcare bill and the triggering of Brexit, has resulted in the rallying of safe havens.

04 апреля, 11:20

Dollar Gains Ahead of Trump-Xi Meeting

US President Trump and the Chinese president Xi Jinping, are scheduled to meet in Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, this Thursday April 6. There are some sensitive issues between the US and China, such as trade protectionism, currency manipulation, South China Sea claims and North Korea’s nuclear program. Trump stated that if China doesn’t take actions to rein in the development of nuclear strength in North Korea then the US will act alone. President Xi expressed in mid-March that “the mutual benefits between the two nations outweighs the conflicts with cooperation as the only right choice for long term development”. On Monday evening, FOMC voting member Harker stated that “the Fed is likely to raise rates twice more this year” which is in line with the Fed’s “gradual” rate hike pace. USD strengthened this morning during early European session with the dollar index testing the 100.50 resistance level. US non-farm payroll and unemployment for March will be released this Friday at 13:30 BST. The US labour market has remained solid, seeing more than 200,000 job gains per month in average over the past six months. This morning the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced that rates will remain unchanged at 1.5% in line with expectations. However, the RBA made a dovish statement as the latest unemployment rate rose to a 13-month high. AUD/USD hit a 3-week low of 0.7561 this morning breaking the significant psychological support level at 0.7600. Economic data for today is thin. UK construction PMI (Mar) to be released at 09:30 BST will likely affect GBP and GBP crosses. The US trade balance is released at 13:30 BST with Fed governor Tarullo making a speech at 21:30 BST. The European Central Bank president Draghi will make a speech at 15:30 BST today, it will likely affect the Euro and Euro crosses. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will make a speech at 08:15 BST on Wednesday April 5. Yen has been one of the best performing currencies over the past few months, as the recent risk events such as Trump’s healthcare bill and the triggering of Brexit, has resulted in the rallying of safe havens.

04 апреля, 11:19

Доллар растёт перед встречей Трампа и Цзиньпина

Влияние на рынок:3Devata TsengПрезидент США Трамп и китайский лидер Си Цзиньпин запланировали встречу во Флориде в Mar-a-Lago в четверг, 6 апреля.Между странами есть весьма чувствительные вопросы, например, торговый протекционизм, валютные манипуляции, территориальные притязания в Южно-Китайском море, а также северокорейская ядерная программа. Трамп настаивает на том, что Китай не предпринимает необходимых действий для того, чтобы сдержать развитие ядерной программы Северной Кореи, и, если так будет и дальше, США будут действовать в одиночку. Президент Си заявил в середине марта о том, что “взаимная выгода двух стран перевешивает расхождения, и совместная работа – это единственный правильный выбор для долгосрочного сотрудничества”.В понедельник вечером голосующий член FOMC Харкер заявил о том, что “ФРС, вероятно, ещё дважды повысит ставки в этом году”, что соответствует политическому курсу постепенного ужесточения политики ЦБ. Доллар укреплялся этим утром в ходе европейской сессии, индекс доллара тестирует уровень сопротивления на 100.50.Статистика по несельскохозяйственной занятости в США, а также уровень безработицы за март будут опубликованы в эту пятницу в 13:30 BST. Американский рынок труда сохранял устойчивость, и ожидается более 200k рабочих мест за месяц в среднем в течение прошедших 6 месяцев.Этим утром Резервный Банк Австралии заявил, что ставки останутся неизменными на уровне 1.5%, что соответствует ожиданиям. Тем не менее, сопроводительное заявление РБА было мягким, так как последние данные по уровню безработицы показали рост до максимального значения за 13 месяцев. Пара AUD/USD пробила минимальное значение за 3 недели на уровне 0.7561 этим утром, пробивая важный психологический уровень поддержки на 0.7600.Экономический календарь на сегодня достаточно свободный. Индекс деловой активности (PMI) для британского строительного сектора за март будет опубликован в 09:30 BST, вероятно, он окажет влияние на динамику фунта и кроссов с валютой. Данные по американскому внешнеторговому балансу будет опубликованы в 13:30 BST, тогда как один из пяти действующих членов совета, управляющих Федеральной резервной системы США Дэниел Тарулло выступит с речью в 21:30 BST.Председатель Банка Японии Курода выступит в 08:15 BST в среду 5 апреля. Иена была одной из лучших по производительности валют в течение последних нескольких месяцев, так как последние рисковые события, например, провал Трампа с отменой и заменой Obamacare, а также официальный запуск Brexit, вылились в ралли безопасных валют.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/04042017-dollar-rastyot-pered-vstrechey-trampa-i-tszinpina/ ..Источник: FxTeam

04 апреля, 09:14

Пара AUD/USD падает после комментариев РБА

Австралийский доллар снижается и сейчас уже находится на отметке $0.7567, обновив сессионный минимум после того, как Резервный банк Австралии пожаловался на высокий и неоправданный курс австралийской валюты и слабость на рынке труда. Это означает, что ЦБ еще долгое время не станет повышать учетную ставку, что оказывает давление на пару AUD/USD. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

04 апреля, 08:13

Резервный банк Австралии оставил ключевую процентную ставку без изменения, на уровне 1.50%

Как и прогнозировалось большинством аналитиков, по итогам своего сегодняшнего заседания Резервный банк Австралии принял решение оставить ключевую процентную ставку без изменения, на уровне 1.50%. В резюме ЦБ было сказано, что текущая процентная ставка соответствуют целям для экономического роста и инфляции. «Перспективы экономики получают поддержку со стороны низких процентных ставок. Последние данные указывают на умеренный рост ВВП. Что касается инфляции, то мы ожидаем, что она будет постепенно расти» - заявили в ЦБ. Также регулятор прокомментировал ситуацию на рынке жилья. «Ситуация на рынке жилья сильно разнится. На некоторых рынках жилья наблюдается быстрый рост цен. Рост заимствований домохозяйств опережает рост доходов домохозяйств. Новые ограничения для кредитования должны помочь сдержать риски, связанные с ипотечным долгом. Кредиторы должны быть уверены в том, что ипотечные кредиты будут погашаться. Финансовые институты находятся в хорошей ситуации для кредитования» - отметили в РБА. Также в Центральном банке в очередной раз пожаловались на высокий курс австралийского доллара и занятость. «Индикаторы рынка труда ухудшились и занятость растет умеренными темпами. Тем не менее, по-прежнему ожидаем рост занятости» - отметили в Резервном банке Австралии. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

03 апреля, 18:00

Основные события завтрашнего дня

Во вторник выйдет умеренное количество данных. В 01:30 GMT Австралия заявит об изменении сальдо торгового баланса за февраль. Показатель отражает все торговые операций Австралии. Сальдо торгового баланса - это разницу между объемом произведенной и вывезенной из страны продукции (экспорт) и объемом продукции, ввезенной в страну (импорт). Позитивное сальдо называется профицитом, негативное дефицитом. Ожидается, что профицит вырос до A$1,7 млрд. с A$1,3 млрд. в январе. В 04:30 GMT в Австралии РБА огласит решение по основной процентной ставке и опубликует сопроводительное заявление. Первый показатель - это процент, под который Резервный Банк Австралии предоставляет кредиты коммерческим банкам. Отталкиваясь от данного значения, коммерческие банки устанавливают свои проценты по кредитам и вкладам. Основная учетная ставка - один из самых важных механизмов, с помощью которого осуществляется регуляция экономики страны. Согласно прогнозам, ставка останется на уровне 1,5%. В 08:30 GMT Британия выпустит индекс PMI для строительного сектора за март. Показатель отображает деловой оптимизм в строительной сфере экономики страны. Рассчитывается на основе опроса представителей руководящих должностей. В опросе участвует около 170 человек, которые оценивают ситуацию в отрасли, в т.ч. относительно занятости, производства, новых заказов, цен, поставок и запасов. Превышение отметки 50 означает рост в секторе. Если индикатор выходит ниже отметки 50 - в секторе наблюдается снижение активности. Ожидается, что индекс остался на уровне 52,5 пункта. В 09:00 GMT еврозона сообщит об изменении розничных продаж за февраль. Индекс показывает изменение объема продаж в сфере розничной торговли. Поскольку объемы розничной торговли являются одним из показателей потребительских расходов, данный индикатор может служить показателем потребительского спроса и уверенности потребителя, что позволяет точнее определить поворотные точки экономического цикла. Ожидается. что продажи выросли на 0,5%. В 09:15 GMT в Австралии состоится выступление главы РБА Ф. Лоу. Филлип Лоу является главой Резервного Банка Австралии (РБА) с сентября 2016 года. Его комментарии имеют высокую важность и всегда отслеживаются участниками рынка, поскольку могут дать сигналы относительно дальнейших решений по денежно-кредитной политике РБА. В 12:30 GMT Канада и США отчитаются по изменению сальдо торгового баланса за февраль. Согласно прогнозам, дефицит торгового баланса США сократился до $45 млрд. с $48,5 млрд. в январе, а профицит торгового баланса Канады уменьшился до C$0,64 млрд. с C$0,81 млрд. В 14:00 GMT США заявит об изменении объема производственных заказов за февраль. Данный индикатор отображает изменение общего объема промышленных заказов, полученных промышленными предприятиями к предыдущему месяцу. Часто является опережающим индикатором динамики промышленного производства на несколько месяцев. Ожидается, что заказы выросли на 1% после повышения на 1,2% в январе. В 20:30 GMT в США состоится выступление члена FOMC ФРС Д. Тарулло. В 23:30 GMT Австралия выпустит индекс услуг от AiG за март. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

03 апреля, 17:32

The U.S.A. and China Start Talking: Global Week Ahead

China's President Xi meets President Trump in Florida later this week, and traders will watch it closely.