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23 июня, 04:57

A Homeless ‘Safe Space’ Challenges Australia’s Power Brokers

In downtown Sydney, opposite the Reserve Bank of Australia, the needy and outraged gather in an unsanctioned shelter to sleep, cook, read and question inequality.

21 июня, 22:13

Moody's Downgrades Australian Banks: ETFs in Focus

Moody's downgraded ratings of a dozen Australian banks, including the big four.

19 июня, 13:32

Global Stocks Jump, Dow Futs At New All Time Highs As Brexit Talks Begin

S&P futures rose 0.3% in subdued trading with Dow Jones futs once again in record territory as European stocks jump 0.6% following Sunday's landslide victory for Macron's party in the French parliamentary elections and as Brexit negotiations are set to officially roll out on Monday. In the latest terrorist incident in London overnight, a man drove a van into pedestrians as people left their mosque following prayers, with UK PM May stating that UK police have confirmed the incident is being treated as a potential terrorist attack. Later updates stated that the one fatality could have been dead before being run-over while 2 others are considered to be seriously injured. Asian equities opened on the front foot led by a rebound in tech stocks while benchmark sovereign yields and FX remains little changed; kiwi outperforms following solid domestic data; yen slightly lower. Australian bonds modestly softer, T-note futures unchanged with the AUDUSD sliding, but then recouping all losses after Moody's cut the long-term ratings of Australia’s four major banks, ANZ, CBA, NAB and Westpac, to Aa3 from Aa2. In China, the PBOC kept daily CNY fixing little changed and conducted net 110 billion yuan of open market operations, injecting liquidity for a fifth straight day and boosting cash injections in the past two days to the most since January. 7-day repo rate fell 23 basis points. Boosted by the sudden bout of PBOC liquidity generosity, Chinese 10-year sovereign bond yield declined 8 basis points, the most since Dec. 29, to 3.50%, sending the yield to the lowest since early May, however the 1-year yield dropped just 4 basis points to 3.58%, sending the Chinese 1s10s yield curve even more inverted. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks jumped 0.7% and 1.2% ahead of a decision by index provider MSCI on Tuesday, expected to see it add mainland-listed Chinese stocks to its top share benchmarks for the first time. Chinese data had also helped, with Reuters noting that liquidity conditions appear to have eased and home prices up 10.4% in May from a year ago, although slowing from April's 10.7% gain. "Generally, the environment still remains fairly positive for risk appetite," said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group in Singapore. In Europe, stocks headed for their biggest rise in seven weeks on Monday as investors snapped up slammed retail, tech and automaker stocks and France's shares and bonds cheered an absolute parliamentary majority for President Emmanuel Macron as the Stoxx Europe 600 gained for a second day. Europe's retailers also clawed back some ground having been clobbered along with U.S. peers like Wal-Mart and Target on Friday by Amazon's $13.7 billion deal to buy upscale grocer Whole Foods Market. The CAC 40 jumped after President Emmanuel Macron’s government claimed a historic majority in France’s legislature, although marred by a record low turnout, which perhaps is why the German-French spread moved just fractionally on monday. "We expect the Macron reforms to transform France like the Thatcher reforms had cured the erstwhile sick man of Europe, the United Kingdom, some 35 years ago," said Berenberg European economist Holger Schmieding. "And like the 'Agenda 2010' reforms had turned Germany from one of the weakest into one of the strongest economies in Europe almost 15 years ago." As Bloomberg notes, investors are once again in risk-on mode as the week begins, even as a cloud of uncertainty swirls around both U.K. leadership and the outlook for Brexit negotiations. “Risk assets around the world are rallying again as the ‘carry party’ resumes,” Societe Generale SA strategist Kit Juckes wrote in a client note. Fed Chair Janet Yellen “did nothing to persuade the market” to take its hawkish outlook for the path of interest rates seriously, he said. Sterling rose with cable just above $1.28 ahead of the formal start of negotiations on Britain's planned exit from the European Union, expected to generate plenty of headlines for the currency in the weeks ahead. Brexit Secretary David Davis starts negotiations in Brussels on Monday, which will be followed by a Brussels summit on Thursday and Friday where Prime Minister Theresa May will meet - but not negotiate with - fellow European Union leaders. Davis's agreement to Monday's agenda led some EU officials to believe that May's government may at last be coming around to Brussels' view of how negotiations should be run. May's own political survival is in doubt after she lost her parliamentary majority in an election this month. On the topic of Brexit negotiations, which officially kick off today, SocGen's Juckes said "we expect nothing because the UK position is as clear as mud' beyond growing signs that the UK wants free trade without being part of the customs union or conceding grounds on borer controls. Sterling's probably range-bound. Any rally triggered by ‘soft Brexit' hopes is probably temporary." With no macro data on today's calendar, the market will await comments by New York Fed President William Dudley when he speaks at a business roundtable in New York state. "In the wake of Friday's weak U.S. data, Dudley could provide insight into whether the Fed is still poised to continue normalizing monetary policy," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo. The euro was steady as talks begin on the U.K.’s split from the European Union, while the British pound strengthened after dropping early in the session. In commodities, oil futures lingered near six-week lows over concerns about a supply glut amid faltering demand. WTI slipped 0.35% to $44.58 a barrel, while Brent dropped 0.3% to $47.21. Iron ore rallied 2.8% after snapping a three-week losing streak.  Gold touched a 3-1/2-week low earlier in the session and was trading down slightly at $1,250 an ounce. In rates, two-year gilts underperform the rest of the curve after the Sunday Times reported the BOE is considering ending its term funding scheme; euro-area periphery bonds outperform core peers. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 2.15 percent. Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities enter the North American open in positive territory, continuing from Asia, buoyed by Macron's convincing parliamentary election victory. A quiet morning in FX land, with all focus on GBP, GBP/USD has pivoted around the 1.28 handle, as participants await the Brexit negotiations. Looking ahead, the highlight will be the fallout of day one of Brexit Negotiations, with Barnier and Davis set to brief the press at 17:00BST Global Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,437.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 391.35 MXAP up 0.6% to 155.18 MXAPJ up 0.7% to 505.44 Nikkei up 0.6% to 20,067.75 Topix up 0.6% to 1,606.07 Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 25,924.55 Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,144.37 Sensex up 0.8% to 31,303.70 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,805.17 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,370.90 German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.278% Euro down 0.04% to 1.1193 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.4% to $47.17/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.695% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 1.431% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $47.17/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,250.84 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.01% to 97.18 Key Overnight Headlines London police say one dead, eight injured after van hits pedestrians BOE said to consider ending the Term Funding Scheme at a meeting this week Macron’s party secures French parliamentary majority, turnout plummets Trump isn’t under investigation for obstruction of justice, his lawyer says RBA’s Lowe repeats growth likely a bit stronger over next couple of years Japan May trade balance -203.4 billion yen vs +43.3 billion estimate Oil Declines as U.S. Adds Yet More Rigs in Oversupplied Market Amazon Said to Plan Cuts to Shed Whole Foods’ Pricey Image Basic Energy Said to Be in Talks to Merge With Rival Key Energy Boeing Takes Aim at Airbus Single-Aisle Edge With Stretched 737 GE Won’t Participate on New Boeing If Three Engine Providers JD Takes $17.6b of Orders During ‘618’ Online Shopping Gala Ocado Jumps as Amazon Deal Seen Positive by Credit Suisse Clovis to Seek Broader Label as Ovarian Cancer Study Meets Goals Myriad Genetics, Foundation Medicine May Fall on Clovis Plans Pentagon Sees Saving $2b From 445-Jet Contract for F-35 Fighter In Asia, equity markets began the week on the front-foot with all major indices in the green, as participants eyed the political landscape in Europe including the start of Brexit negotiations today and after French President Macron's party and its allies won a clear majority in the 2nd round parliamentary elections. Nikkei 225 (+0.62%) gained as JPY softened across the board, while ASX 200 (+0.54%) was led higher by outperformance in utilities and financials. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) and Hang Seng (+1.1%) are also upbeat following a firm liquidity operation by the PBoC, while the region also awaits MSCI's verdict tomorrow on whether to add China A-shares to its Emerging Markets Index in the nation's 4th attempt for inclusion. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued alongside gains in riskier assets and after the BoJ's Rinban announcement, in which it refrained from JGB purchases and instead concentrated on treasury bills. Top Asian News Hong Kong Wants to Win the Next Alibaba With Exchange Revamp China’s Home Prices Increase in Fewer Cities as Curbs Bite Japan’s Recovery Creates Room for Bolder Reforms, IMF Says Aussie Extends Drop After Moody’s Cuts Ratings on Nation’s Banks CRCC May Eye Up to $2b From Shanghai, Hong Kong Share Sales: IFR Why the Qatar Crisis Defies Rapid Resolution: QuickTake Q&A Taiwan Watchdog Fines SinoPac, Ousts Chairman for Lax Oversight In Prohibition Pakistan, Brewery Plans Soft Drink Switch Abe’s Popularity Slides as Mounting Japan Scandals Take Toll Toshiba Finalizing Chip Sale to Group With Bain: Nikkan Kogyo In Europe, equities likewise have kicked-off the week on the front foot, with all major European bourses firmly in the green (Eurostoxx 600 +0.6%) in a continuation of the positive sentiment seen during Asia-Pac trade. The CAC 40 (+1 %) is trading broadly in-line with the market as Macron's victory in the French parliamentary elections was largely priced in given the results seen in the first round. In terms of sector performance, gains have been relatively broad-based with modest underperformance for RWE following a broker downgrade while Ocado (+6.5%) trade higher in the wake of Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods. In fixed income markets, prices have largely been swayed by the upside in equities as paper trades lower this morning (albeit modestly so) in what will be a quieter week with regards to sovereign supply (Belgium comes to market today with 3 OLO offerings). Peripheral yields are marginally lower this morning with Greek paper also taking a bit of a breather after the nation managed to strike a deal with creditors last week. Top European News Macron Under Pressure to Deliver as Turnout Plummets in France Brexit Talks Begin With May Under Pressure to Get Soft Split London Home Sellers Cut Price for Second Time in Three Months ECB’s Smets Says Start of Brexit Negotiations a ‘Sad Day’ ECB’s Smets Says Inflation Expectations Must Be Solidly Anchored Buyers Line Up as Europe’s Biggest Debt Collector Divests Units Kazakhstan Says Eni-Shell Venture Offers Settlement to End Spat Astra, Tesaro May Move on Clovis Oncology’s Ovarian Cancer Data U.K.’s Johnson: ‘Realistic Prospect’ of Brexit Deal With EU SNCF Mandates Lazard to Sell Ermewa, Les Echos Says In currencies, GBP will be a focus throughout the session as today sees the beginning of negotiations between EU's Barnier and Brexit Secretary Davis. That said, GBP remains firmer against the greenback and back above 1.2800 even despite weekend reports of a potential attack on May's leadership which could further add to the political uncertainty gripping the nation. Elsewhere, the broader risk sentiment has supported the USD with USD/JPY gaining traction in early trade. However, some remain cynical about how much room there is to the upside with hearty offers at 111.50. Finally, AUD saw some selling pressure this morning amid news that Moody's has downgraded the nation's big four banks. In commodities, this morning has been a quieter one for the commodity complex with energy prices stuck in a tight range amid light newsflow, other than reports that oil output has been increasing at Libya's Sharara oil-field. In metals, copper eked mild gains overnight amid the positive risk sentiment in Asia, although upside was limited alongside subdued trade across the complex, while the risk sentiment has acted as a downward force for gold prices. There were new details released by Jodi about Saudi Arabian oil data as follows: Crude exports fell by 0.226min BPD M/M to 7.006min BPD in April Crude Stocks fell 3.927min BBLS TO 263.927min BBLS in April Domestic refinery crude throughput rose 0.390min BPD to 2.651 min BPD in April Crude output rose by 0.046min BPD M/M to 9.946min BPD in April Looking at the day ahead, there are no data releases scheduled in the US, although we have two Fed speakers: at 8am, Fed’s Dudley holds a business rountable in Plattsburgh, NY; while later at 7pm Fed’s Evans speaks in New York. * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Politics remains a hotbed of activity at the moment. There may only be around 20 miles between France and the UK but the fascinating thing about these two very different countries at the moment is that while the French seem to be rejecting socialism in their droves the momentum in the UK seems to be leading the country in the opposite direction. While Macron talks of sweeping labour market reform, the buoyant UK opposition (ahead in the polls now) talk of renationalisation, higher taxes and higher spending. As expected Macron's En Marche party swept the board in the second round of the parliamentary election yesterday winning 350 out of 577 seats - perhaps slightly short of expectations but still a commanding victory. The record low turnout (estimated at 44%) will also be a disappointment and already Melonchon has suggested that this doesn't give Macron legitimacy to tear up worker's rights. Indeed Melenchon said that “this bloated majority in the National Assembly does not in our eyes have the legitimacy to perpetrate the anticipated social coup, the destruction of all public social order by the repeal of the labour law”. Elsewhere the ruling Socialist party fell from 280 to an estimated 45 seats though and were firmly defeated. It's easy to forget that it was only 14 months ago that the En Marche party was formed and how remarkable it is that they've come from nowhere to secure such a victory and banish the two main parties. Europe is going through a buoyant patch economically at the moment which is taking the edge off populism but under the surface huge political change is still occurring. Meanwhile in the UK politics is as decisive as at any point I can remember with Brexit, the recent elections and the tragic fire last week in a tower block in London creating anger, resentment, activism and at times scenes descending into what seems like mob behaviour. The overnight breaking news of another vehicle striking into pedestrians in North London is sadly another talking point. When the opposition party leader Jeremy Corbyn suggests that empty privately owned houses in the region of the Grenfell Tower fire should be subject to requisition orders to house the homeless and that a YouGov poll suggests that 59% of the population agrees with the idea in theory then you can see that a political tide is turning. Added to this, PM May has had such a difficult 10 days that opinion polls now give the Labour Party (led by a socialist core) a lead in the polls (recent Survation poll being evidence) a couple of months after being 20% behind and written off by many and expected to see one of the worst election results by an opposition party in history. For now PM May stumbles on without an official political understanding with the DUP as yet and only 2 days before the Queen's Speech where she will lay out the Government's legislative agenda for the next Parliamentary session (now lasting 2 years). On the same day there seems to  be momentum building for a "day of rage" against the Government with marches and protests planned. Those on the left of the political spectrum have really been emboldened over the last few weeks. Wednesday could be an interesting day in the UK. As we've been saying a lot over the last year we think the Brexit and Trump vote will be seen in years to come as an inflexion point across the world where Governments had to spend more to appease the bottom half of the population on the income scale or risk getting voted out. The recent political developments in the UK make me more convinced of this. Europe is not immune from this but as discussed above populism is seeing a slight retracement as growth edges towards the upper end of the post financial crisis range. If and when growth fades Europe will again likely face these issues. Staying with the UK today sees Brexit negotiations officially begin. Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond suggested yesterday in a TV interview that a gentle departure from the EU should be targeted. The Chancellor indicated that “transactional structures” would be needed to help smooth the process and that “we need to get there via a slope, not via a cliff edge” - suggesting a softer tone in negotiations. In contrast to the PM, Hammond also rejected the mantra “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Hammond also said that his position was one of a “jobs first” Brexit which is also a slight shift in tone compared to the PM. Separately, Hammond said that the UK government had “heard a message last week in the general election” and that ways to soften austerity were being looked at with voters seemingly growing “weary” of it. Hammond did however also say that he will still look to balance the budget by the middle of the next decade and that the UK had to “live within our means”. It’s worth noting that Hammond is due to deliver his Mansion House speech tomorrow after it was delayed from last week. Away from politics, the big story in markets on Friday and over the weekend was that of Amazon’s $14bn bid for Whole Foods. The headlines sparked ripple effects of selling through the retail sector on Friday with investors quick to dump shares over fears of a potential huge new entrant in the market, potential further disruption and more fears of narrower margins. Bricks and mortar food retailers like Wal-Mart (-4.65%) and Kroger (-9.24%) were hit but it didn’t stop there with other general US bricks and mortar retailers under pressure. Costco (-7.19%), Walgreens Boots (-4.99%), CVS (-3.78%) and Target (-5.14%) all stood out. It was a similar story in CDS with spreads for the likes of Nordstrom (+6bps), Target (+4bps) and Wal-Mart (+3bps) all wider. Europe wasn’t immune with Tesco (-4.92%), Sainsbury (-3.85%) and Carrefour (-3.22%) also seeing big moves lower. Since the bid was made there have been plenty of articles over the weekend questioning whether this is deflationary for food prices and as such overall inflation. So it’s sure to be a talking point for a while. While the retail sector did its best to drag markets down on Friday the S&P 500 actually managed to eke out a small +0.03% gain by the end of play after steadily rising into the close. A decent day for the energy sector had a lot to do with that after Oil (+0.63%) pared some of last week’s heavy fall. The Nasdaq (-0.22%) did however close in the red for the fifth time in the last six sessions. Prior to this the Stoxx 600 (+0.66%) had actually put up its best day since May 4th supported in part by the positive progress made in Greece to some degree. This morning in Asia it’s been a fairly positive start to the week for risk. In equity markets the Nikkei (+0.60%), Hang Seng (+0.87%), Shanghai Comp (+0.33%), Kospi (+0.41%) and ASX (+0.20%) appear to all be feeding off the positive momentum into the Wall Street close on Friday. US equity index futures are also up +0.20%. It’s worth adding that there are some eyes already looking ahead to tomorrow’s decision from the MSCI as to whether or not China’s domestic A-shares will be included in its globally tracked EM index. The MSCI has previously delayed the decision over concerns about regulation worries and accessibility. Staying with China, house prices data out this morning revealed that new home prices rose in 56 of the 70 cities tracked by the government, down slightly from 58 in April. Meanwhile in Japan this morning our economists noted that customs trade stats for May confirmed stagnant international trade growth with a seasonally +0.9% mom rise in export volumes, a +0.4% mom rise in import volumes, flat growth in export value and +0.3% mom rise in import value. Other markets were relatively quiet on Friday. Treasuries were a bit stronger at the margin (10y -1.2bps to 2.152%) and the USD softer (-0.28%) following some soft US data and dovish Fedspeak. In terms of the former both housing starts (-5.5% mom vs. +4.1% expected) and building permits (-4.9% mom vs. +1.7%) declined unexpectedly in May while the labour markets conditions index also rose a little less than expected (+2.3 vs. +3.0 expected). The flash June University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading was also a little disappointing after falling 2.6pts to 94.5 and the lowest since November. Both current conditions and expectations weakened although inflation expectations 1-year ahead did hold steady at 2.6% while 5-10 year expectations actually rose two-tenths to 2.6%. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta Fed’s Q2 GDPNow forecast is down to 2.9% (a 0.3% downward revision versus Wednesday) and at the lowest so far. Meanwhile the Fedspeak consisted of comments from Kashkari and Kaplan. The former (who dissented last week) reiterated his view that the Fed should not have hiked rates last week given recent inflation data, preferring instead to wait and see if the data is transitory or not. The latter meanwhile told reporters that before he is comfortable taking the next step in tightening, “I’m going to want to see more evidence that we’re making progress in reaching our 2% inflation objective”. In terms of the data in Europe on Friday, the only release of note was the confirmation of the final inflation readings for the Euro area in May. Headline CPI was unrevised at -0.1% mom which has in turn confirmed an annual reading of +1.4% yoy and down from +1.9% in April. The more significant core reading was confirmed at +0.9% yoy which compares to +1.2% the month prior. To the week ahead now. It’s a quiet start to the week today with no data of note in either Europe of the US. It’s not looking likely to be much busier on Tuesday with only Germany PPI and the US current account balance in Q1 due. On Wednesday the early focus will be on the UK with May public sector net borrowing data due out. In the US we’ll get existing home sales for May. The calendar finally picks up a bit on Thursday. In France we’ll receive June confidence indicators while in the UK we’ll get CBI total orders data for June. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index, FHFA house price index and the conference board’s leading index. The busiest day for data looks set to be Friday. In Asia we’ll receive the flash June manufacturing PMI for Japan while in Europe we’ll get the flash PMIs for the Euro area, Germany and France. Also due out is the final revisions to Q1 GDP in France. Over in the US on Friday we’ll also receive the flash PMIs along with May new home sales. Away from the data there are a bunch of Fedspeakers scheduled over the week including Dudley (Monday), Evans, Fischer, Rosengren and Kaplan (Tuesday), Powell (Thursday) and Mester, Bullard and Powell (Friday). Away from that we’ll receive BoJ minutes from the April meeting on Wednesday while the BoJ’s Kuroda (Wednesday) and Iwata (Thursday) are also due to speak. Also of note is the Queen’s speech scheduled for Wednesday which officially marks the state opening of the new parliamentary session in the UK. EU leaders are also due to gather for a 2-day meeting beginning Thursday to discuss the relocation of European agencies after Brexit.

19 июня, 11:32

Brexit Negotiations to be Triggered

The Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU is set to start today, June 19th. Although Theresa May has stated before “no deal is better than a bad deal”, Chancellor said on Sunday that “no deal would be a very, very bad outcome for Britain”. A Hung Parliament will likely cause both a positive and a negative impact on the Brexit process, as the Tories now have less dominance in the Parliament, the UK will likely be at a weaker position, resulting in a softer Brexit. However, different opinions and stances between different political parties will likely cause conflicts on some Brexit associated issues. The focuses on the Brexit issues include whether the UK will be able to stay in the custom union, trade agreements, financial services, the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British nationals living in the EU etc. In the short term, the GBP prospects will likely subject to the progression and situation of the Brexit process. GBP has seen a rebound post the general election. GBP/USD has rebounded around 1.15% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls are attempting to breach the psychological level at 1.2800. GBP/JPY has rebounded 2.3% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls broke the resistance level at 142.00. EUR/GBP has retraced 1.3% since June 12th. After the release of the UK general election outcome, markets’ risk-off sentiment has waned. The VIX (volatility) index fell to a low of 9.37, last seen in 1993, after the election. It was followed by a moderate rebound, trading around 10.38. It appears to be that markets’ risk-on sentiment will likely last an extended period. Gold has retreated around 1.27% since the Fed addressed a hawkish statement last Wednesday. This morning in early European session, spot gold fell to a low of 1250.06, last seen on May 24th.. There is stronger support at the zone between 1245 – 1250, if the zone is broken, we will likely see an extended downtrend. In the short term, gold prices likely remain bearish unless some unexpected market events happen to push it up. The economic data is relatively thin this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes will be released at 02:30 BST on Tuesday morning, it will likely affect AUD crosses.

19 июня, 11:32

Brexit Negotiations to be Triggered

The Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU is set to start today, June 19th. Although Theresa May has stated before “no deal is better than a bad deal”, Chancellor said on Sunday that “no deal would be a very, very bad outcome for Britain”. A Hung Parliament will likely cause both a positive and a negative impact on the Brexit process, as the Tories now have less dominance in the Parliament, the UK will likely be at a weaker position, resulting in a softer Brexit. However, different opinions and stances between different political parties will likely cause conflicts on some Brexit associated issues. The focuses on the Brexit issues include whether the UK will be able to stay in the custom union, trade agreements, financial services, the rights of EU citizens living in the UK and British nationals living in the EU etc. In the short term, the GBP prospects will likely subject to the progression and situation of the Brexit process. GBP has seen a rebound post the general election. GBP/USD has rebounded around 1.15% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls are attempting to breach the psychological level at 1.2800. GBP/JPY has rebounded 2.3% since June 12th. This morning, in early European session, the bulls broke the resistance level at 142.00. EUR/GBP has retraced 1.3% since June 12th. After the release of the UK general election outcome, markets’ risk-off sentiment has waned. The VIX (volatility) index fell to a low of 9.37, last seen in 1993, after the election. It was followed by a moderate rebound, trading around 10.38. It appears to be that markets’ risk-on sentiment will likely last an extended period. Gold has retreated around 1.27% since the Fed addressed a hawkish statement last Wednesday. This morning in early European session, spot gold fell to a low of 1250.06, last seen on May 24th.. There is stronger support at the zone between 1245 – 1250, if the zone is broken, we will likely see an extended downtrend. In the short term, gold prices likely remain bearish unless some unexpected market events happen to push it up. The economic data is relatively thin this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes will be released at 02:30 BST on Tuesday morning, it will likely affect AUD crosses.

19 июня, 10:10

Вероятность коррекции вверх по ММВБ высокая

Миновали важные заседания центральных банков, на которых были изменены ставки. Поэтому значение макроэкономических данных для валютных торгов снижается. Тем не менее статистика показывает состояние экономической среды, в которой компании могут рассчитывать на улучшение финансовых показателей или готовиться к более сложным временам. Соответственно, можно рассчитывать на реакцию рынков акций. В понедельник Япония опубликует цифры по торговому балансу. Однако на азиатском отрезке внимание инвесторов будет обращено на китайские данные по ценам на недвижимость. Китайские власти оказались в ловушке. С одной стороны, весьма активный рост цен на жилье раздувает "пузырь", а с другой – все новые и новые ограничения могут негативно сказаться на темпах экономического развития. В России выйдет статистика по ценам производителей. Пройдут ГОСА ТГК-1, "Ростелеком". Резервный банк Австралии опубликует протокол крайнего заседания во вторник.

16 июня, 22:56

Australia Unemployment at 4 Year Low: ETFs in Focus

Australia's unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% in May, compared with 5.7% in April.

14 июня, 08:43

Мнение JP Morgan по монетарной политике РБА

Согласно мнению аналитиков крупнейшего американского банка JP Morgan, Резервный банк Австралии примет решение снизить учетную ставку на 50 базисных пунктов в первой половине 2018 года, тогда как ранее аналитики этого банка ждали сокращение процента ЦБ во второй половине 2017 года. Как и ранее эксперты отмечают недостаточность финансовых возможностей правительства для поддержания нужного уровня инфляции. Также в JP Morgan ждут выхода неблагоприятной макроэкономической статистики и растущих рисков по ценам на жилье в регионе. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

12 июня, 01:24

FX Week Ahead Preview: Focus Returns To The US Economy As Politics Run Riot Once Again

Submitted by Rajan Dhall FXDaily.co.uk and Shant Movsesian of RANSquawk FX Week Ahead: Focus returns to the US economy as politics have run riot once again. Theresa May clearly made a big mistake in calling the snap election, and the Pound has suffered accordingly, though gains had perhaps run their course. NZD still looks good, while CAD weathers Oil price drop as domestic data supports. It is a key week for central banks next week, headlined by the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, which is widely expected to result in a 25bp rate hike as the Fed maintain course for ‘normalisation’.  In recent weeks, the run of data has been less than encouraging on the face of it, with wage growth sluggish given the average pace in job gains seen in the last year or so.  We had some tenuous signs that this may change over the course of the following few months with this week’s JOLTS rising significantly - above the 6 million mark – and there is a case to be made that employers could be struggling to find requisite skilled workers. The above alone will do little to revive the more aggressive rate path we had been looking to beyond June, and ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday, we have the latest CPI and retail sales figures for May, which will be something to consider alongside the rhetoric from the accompanying press conference.  Industrial and manufacturing production stats on Thursday also due.  Little down on the political schedule which could impact on risk sentiment per say.  The JPY and CHF having retreated some way – partly down to the ‘tame’ Comey testimony - but the market should be on watch for any fresh ramifications after the ex-FBI director (and indeed some of the questioning Senators) ‘highlighted’ his impromptu dismissal by president Trump. Having survived 109.00, Friday trade saw USD/JPY pushing through the half way mark in the 110.00’s, but north of 111.00, we expect sellers to overwhelm once again.  This may prove to be a temporary affair, but with Wall Street still near record highs, the correlation with stocks may prompt buyers a little more actively into dips.  There are more comfortable carry trades out there, with NZD/JPY seemingly top of the pile.  In NZ next week, we have the Q1 GDP release on Wednesday which is seen rising from 0.4% to 0.7%, but the yoy rate is expected to remain at 2.7%.  Amid the backdrop of the budget surpluses announced last month, the current account numbers may be of little interest the day before. Across the waters, the Australian week kicks off with a holiday on Monday, in observance of the Queen’s holiday.  Even so, the RBA’s assistant governor Debelle is down to speak that day, but data-wise Thursday’s employment report is the main event.  With this relatively modest line-up of events, we expect a period of consolidation for AUD, with downside exhaustion largely behind the recovery.  This ran out of steam well ahead of the 0.7600 mark, and this in spite of a strong pullback in copper price at the end of the week. AUD/NZD is also at a key crossroads as fundamental differentials fight against the technical support from the weekly trend line seen below 1.0400.  A break under 1.0300 will see the market focusing on parity again! Out of China, it is also worth noting industrial production for May, due out alongside retail sales which should remain strong given import data seen this week.  Fixed Asset Investment data also out.   In Japan, we cannot get excited above BoJ policy meetings these days, as the persistent flow of communication points to ongoing stimulus measures remaining in place amid subdued inflation.  We also saw GDP slowing as Q1 recorded a 0.3% rise vs 0.6% in Q4 2016, but CapEx rose more than expected.  Even so, economic traction looks some way off, and we are certainly nowhere near policy change any time soon. In Europe, EU wide CPI at the end of the week (final reading) is standout, but after this week’s ECB meeting, where inflation forecasts have been downgraded, any weakness here will have been weathered to some degree, with the lead EUR/USD rate still garnering bids on modest dips lower.  This is in anticipation of an eventual reining in of the extraordinary measures in place, deemed appropriate at the present time, but which was previously forecast (to change) in late Q3 before some of the more eager proponents suggested we may have seen a stronger signal yesterday (Thursday). This should also underpin EUR/GBP, if not the general election result which proved to be a horrendous decision by Theresa May.  Far from providing stability into the Brexit negotiations, which are (were?) scheduled to start on 19 June, the Tories are now in a position where they needed to form an alliance, with the DUP lining up as the number one contender despite their insistence on a more policy focused collaboration.  For the Pound, we see little light on the horizon near term, though going into the election we saw limited upside in Cable given the already-tense relationship with Europe after some of the recent exchanges, notably from Brexit minister David Davis (for now?) as well as the PM herself.  The spot rate had already run into a wall of selling interest north of 1.3000 in the weeks running up to the Jun 8 vote, and despite the resilient tone overall, we could see a sea-change which could eventually return the pair back to circa 1.2400-1.2500 initially.  It will take a major breakthrough in the (eventual) talks ahead to see us get back to levels near 1.3000 again.   EUR/GBP levels of note on the upside lie ahead of 0.9000, with the large chunk of the resistance zone from 0.8800-60 worked through in the aftermath of the election result. Pre 0.8650 looks strong on the downside, though any break below here will run into even stronger demand in the mid 0.8500’s. Inflation, employment and retail sales stats all due for release out next week in the UK, and all are due out ahead of the BoE meeting, with the central bank stance set to edge back towards a more neutral stance (lower for longer?) due to fresh political uncertainty. This week will have been another headache that governor Carney and co could do well without, but if the Pound can avoid any renewed bouts of sharp devaluation, the current policy stance will suffice.  Finally in Canada, Friday’s strong job report was further evidence that a moderate, slow-paced recovery could be developing.  There are a number of external factors weighing on the domestic economy and the CAD, but losses in Oil price should be, and perhaps have been tempered by the recent BoC statement which suggests the adjustment to current levels is largely complete. With WTI falling back into the middle of the USD40-50 range, we have seen upturns in USD/CAD to be a little more reluctant.  This was certainly the case towards 1.3600, so we are not averse to seeing a push lower towards 1.3100-1.3200, but demand either side of 1.3400 has been restrictive.  The NAFTA reset has also been a dark cloud hanging over Canada, but we believe this will have greater ramifications for Mexico, as the benefits of the accord have been largely beneficial to the US and Canada in equal measure. No data of note next week in Canada, so traders will focus more on Oil price, but with a justifiable bias towards a more positive CAD tone. CAD/JPY has tested the support levels just under 81.00 again, and as we saw in mid-Apr and mid-May, has found good support here to join NZD/JPY in showing healthy promise in the weeks ahead.

12 июня, 00:30

The Inconvenient Truth... Of Consumer Debt

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth via Bloomberg.com, Oh, but for the days the hawks had a hero in Sydney. Against the backdrop of a de facto currency war, the Reserve Bank of Australia stood as a steady pillar of strength. The RBA held the line on interest rates, maintaining a floor of 2.5 percent, even as its global central bank peers drove rates to the zero bound and beyond into negative territory. The abrupt end to the commodities supercycle drove the RBA to join the global currency war. The mining-dependent nation’s economy was so debilitated that policy makers felt they had no choice but to ease financial conditions. In February 2015, after an 18-month honeymoon, the RBA reduced its official rate to 2.25 percent, marking the start of a cycle that ended last August with the fourth cut to a record low of 1.5 percent. The Bank of Canada has taken a similar journey in recent years. It embarked upon a mild tightening campaign in 2010 that raised the overnight loan rate from a record low of 0.25 percent to 1 percent in September 2010. The bank maintained that level until early 2015. Two weeks before the RBA’s first cut, the Bank of Canada lowered rates to 0.75 percent. The January move, which shocked the markets, was followed in July 2015 with an additional ease to 0.5 percent, where it remains today. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz, who replaced Mark Carney after he departed to head the Bank of England, explained the moves as necessary to counter the downside risks to inflation emanating from the oil price shock to the country's economy. Two resource-rich economies reacting similarly to body blows is intuitive enough. They eased the pressure on their given economies. How they’ve landed in their current predicaments is less easy to explain. Propelled by soaring home prices from Sydney to Toronto to Melbourne to Vancouver, Australia’s household debt-to-income has hit a record 190 percent, the highest among developed nations; it is trailed closely by Canada, which has a 167 percent ratio. To put this in perspective, at the peak of the housing bubble, debt-to-income in the U.S. peaked at 130 percent. Then, economists took perverse pleasure in squelching the alarm these frightening figures elicited. “It’s not the level of debt that matters, it’s the cost to service that debt.” Is it a surprise that economists today are equally dismissive of households’ heavy debt burdens? Mortgages take a lifetime to expunge; incomes flow in every year. That myopic mindset best captures the shackles that bind today’s global economy. Of course it’s acceptable to build infinitely high levels of debt -- as long as rates never rise. But then there's the inconvenient truth that when the price of the collateral backing those millions of subprime mortgages cratered, those irrelevant debt loads became relevant overnight. The same can be said of today’s delicate dynamic. Australia and Canada will be just fine so long as they don’t suffer a shock in any form to their respective economies. Some policy makers have begun to push back against the conventional stupidity. “Sometime between now and Armageddon, interest rates will go up,” warned Australia’s Treasury Secretary John Fraser on May 30. “That’s something people need to be mindful of.” Bear in mind that household debt has been growing at multiples of income, a disconnect that can only exist in a wonderland of permanently low interest rates. Call it a global cultural tectonic shift. For close to a decade, the almighty Federal Reserve’s holding interest rates near the zero bound and its unconventional monetary maneuvers have bled into every nook and cranny of the global economy; it has altered the way investors of all stripes approach the very idea of debt. Asset pricing, the way it was taught in Finance 101 courses, has no place in the new unreal world. And sadly, the impetus to save has died in the wake of the end of compound interest. All the while, governments and major corporations have borrowed without a thought about potential ramifications. Demographics add to the problem: We don't die as young as we once did. What to do? Close our eyes and make a wish that the world’s central bankers maintain the illusion of debt service being the only thing that ever has to matter. We ride the coattails of record levels of global quantitative easing being pumped into the system to keep the patient on life support. We tell ourselves that risky asset prices are at the precipice of the rally of the century, even though the run-up is the second-longest on record. Without the comforting embrace of such delusions we could hardly dismiss as hysterical hyperbole reports such as that recently released by the World Economic Forum, which said longevity and lackluster investment returns will viciously collude to create a $400 trillion retirement savings shortfall in 30 years’ time. That figure is five times global output. At the very least, Fraser has an optimistic take on how far out the day of reckoning will be. Debt is, “all fine until it ain’t. When interest rates do, in the centuries to come, go up, it’s something to watch.” Pray you aren’t the lucky soul with front-row seat tickets.

07 июня, 20:45

The U.K. Election: An Outsider Looking In

Authored by Danielle DiMartino Booth, Talk about making hay if the sun shines through and through. In 1696, William III introduced the ‘window tax.’ It was crystal clear that this dark tax was viewed with great disfavor being as it was based on the number of windows in a given home. Think of it as a first-generation progressive tax, which suited the extravagant era’s buildout of country estates. The more windows in a home, the wealthier the ostentatious occupants were, to say nothing of cheerier and healthier (did Vitamin D supplements exist back then?). So why not pony up more in taxes to help your sovereign offset the scourge of coin clipping? Coin what? Back in the day, coins were minted in pure precious metals. This prompted petty pilfers to shave, file and clip the edges off those coveted coins. Combine enduring effort with a red-hot melting pot and voila, fraudulent fortunes followed. The pinchers’ progeny were no doubt among the pioneers committing counterfeit currency capers. These days we embrace the despicable denigration of our currencies. We go so far as to lavish the loftiest positions in the modern world on those whose most lauded accomplishments have been earned in laureates, not the legal authority to levy, well, anything. ‘Tis true, central bankers have assumed more power than our politicians. The question is where this will lead us all against the backdrop of a world where inequality has boiled over into illegality and depravity for our fellow man. As all market watchers are aware, the British general elections are to be held Thursday. Intriguingly, some three million newly-registered voters will cast their calls for the first time. This should be a worrying factoid for Theresa May; the UK’s youngest voters were largely opposed to exiting the European Union last June. The arguably inconsistent and unreliable polls will have certainly given Prime Minister Theresa May pause. One June 4th, May’s Conservative party looked to secure 354 seats, above and beyond the 326 needed for a Parliamentary majority. By Tuesday, other polls showed her party’s prospects had dwindled to 305 seats. Intuition suggests Saturday night’s horrific terrorist attacks on London Bridge (pictured front and center in this week’s image) and a nearby neighborhood would have solidified Conservative’s lead. But the polls counterintuitively indicate a move in the opposite direction. Though impossible to predict, the least hyperbolic within the political analyst arena give the Conservatives better than even odds of winning a majority, or at the very least forming a coalition that accomplishes the next best thing. It’s notable that May’s lead did not initially narrow based solely on events that were out of her control, as in three terrorist attacks in three months. Rather, it was her vow to make pensioners’ benefits progressive (just took a huge amount of license in simplifying her proposal) - as in those who have more can expect to collect less from the state – was met with about as much derision as William III’s window tax. While it’s never wise to judge from the outside, some of the wisest and most patriotic suggestions floated in the United States have been from wealthy retirees who’ve suggested they need not collect Social Security to help balance the nation’s books. Moreover, May was magnanimous in her aim; she intends to use the saved state expenditures to funnel funds into raising productivity by closing the skills gap that has crippled the economy (sound familiar?) Somehow the liberal media managed to paint May as a pariah (is it yours truly, or are the parallels multiplying?) In one of May’s latest interviews, she reiterated her focus on what she hopes is to come: “It’s about young people’s future, it’s about ensuring we take the opportunities that will be opened up to us when we leave the EU to be a really global nation bringing more jobs, more investment into the UK. I want to see proper technical education for the first time for young people for whom that’s right.” Connecting warm bodies with much-needed skills-sets to UK’s corporate sector could well do the economy some good. Let’s hope she has wise economic counsel to help her execute her plan if the Conservatives prevail at the polls. Luckily, one of Britain’s savviest economists is free to pursue his next career gig. Of course, the reference is to Andy Haldane, the Bank of England’s chief economist, whose term technically ended May 31st (he will remain at his post until his replacement is secured.) How to sum up Haldane? A central banker who gets it right half the time is about as close to genius as you can ever hope for in the field given the de facto requirement that Keynesian Kool-Aid be drank before the threshold is crossed into the inner sanctum sanctorum. That applies whether you refer to the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan or especially the Federal Reserve (though hawks may just get their chance to storm the temple – stay tuned on that count). Of punk UK productivity, for one, Haldane has this to say in a recent speech: It wasn’t low interest rates that kept middling companies in business since the crisis hit, but rather delusions of operational grandeur. Haldane prodded the UK government to provide global benchmarks to UK firms so they could better appreciate their standing among their international peers. “As Olympic athletes have shown, marginal improvements accumulated over time can deliver world-beating performance,” Haldane said. “Applying those marginal gains to the population of UK companies could significantly improve UK living standards.” Sounds like May and Haldane are on the same page, though it goes without saying that low interest rates assisted in keeping ‘zombie’ companies alive in addition to an abject denial of mediocrity. Most importantly for May, if she’s in the market for an economic advisor, Haldane is not beholden to the modern-day economics profession. Haldane likened economists’ failure to foresee the financial crisis to a, “Michael Fish moment.” Fish, for you non-Anglophiles, dismissed the chances that a massive hurricane would hit southern England in 1987. You know how this story ends. The Great Storm did indeed hit and how, wreaking mass destruction and casualties. After describing his profession as being in, “some degree of crisis,” Haldane went on to suggest that his peers abandon their, “narrow and fragile” models in favor of a broader analysis that incorporated the perspectives of other disciplines. Hear, hear! To be fair, Haldane went on to say that Brexit would crash the UK economy but with a lag, hence the above-referenced only ‘gets it right half the time’ bit. If providence is propitious, May is also channeling the ghost of Margaret Thatcher, who made all manner of enemies going against the conventional wisdom of her day, especially as it pertained to the economy. No doubt it will take radical ideas to cure what ails the UK economy today. In what can only be described as twisted irony, Mark Carney’s Bank of England (BoE) was recently taken to task for the pay raises recently ‘awarded’ to his employees which failed to keep pace with inflation. At around one percent, the most recent annual BoE employee pay raise is a pittance of the current 2.7 percent inflation rate. The average British worker bested that, with average wages increasing by 2.4 percent, which still fails to keep pace with the rising cost of living. And yet, as is the case with his European and American counterparts, Carney is more likely to get caught out gnashing his teeth about inflation being too low, despite it clearly being too high for the average working man and woman. The fact is Carney’s in a mighty tight corner with inflation running too hot, wages running too cold and a corporate sector petrified at the potentially poisonous ramifications of Brexit. For the moment, exports are a relative outperformer with a big boost from the weaker pound. It’s the ‘what’s next’ that matters most though — the impossible tradeoff between raising interest rates and the higher real wages that would follow, or lower for longer and the boost to short-term growth prospects too offset any Brexit fallout. And that’s just for starters when it comes to threading needles on Threadneedle Street. As has been the case in Australia and Canada, residential real estate prices have run wild since quantitative easing unleashed animal spirits in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As a result, British households’ debt loads vis-à-vis the size of the economy have made a full round trip to record highs. But here’s the wrinkle:  mortgages in the UK tend to be of the variable rate variety, In other words, Carney has to tread more lightly than his counterpart Janet Yellen if he’s inclined to tighten. And so they straddle the Atlantic, both weighed by impossible choices, rendered more intractable yet by their own misguided foregone follies that insisted more was more, lower was better. What good has that done? To add to their intellectual egos’ injuries, both Carney and Yellen have to contend with political leaders who’ve neither the appetite nor the intent to compromise, much less kowtow, to their theoretical end games. Looking back, it’s hard to believe the window tax withstood its own political backlash for over 150 years. But believe you me, the tax was not abolished until 1851. By then, so despised was the levy, it had assumed a new name — Daylight Robbery. Is it so hard to see that the current crop of central bankers has also managed to destroy the vista, to suck the oxygen out of the world economy as closed up homes did back then, albeit with much more sophisticated means? We can only hope our elected leaders don’t have to wait another 150 years to see the light.

07 июня, 09:20

"Stressed" Australians Struggle With Record Debts As Housing Market Overheats

Australians are dialing back their spending on everything from clothes to cars as sky-high housing costs, the result of a housing bubble fueled by Chinese buyers, threaten to finally derail the country’s twin asset bubbles - housing and stocks. But rising mortgage debt isn’t the only thing squeezing Australian customers, as Reuters reports. Inflation on essential items like food, electricity and insurance is accelerating, meaning Australians are also paying higher prices for basic consumer goods. Australia’s real-estate prices have been rising for more than 25 years with hardly a pause – the last time real estate prices saw a meaningful pullback was during its last recession, in 1987. Reuters reported Tuesday that Australia’s debt-to-income ratio has climbed to an all-time peak of 189%, according to the Reserve Bank of Australia. While sky-high home prices are, in part, responsible for Australians’ record debt, a sudden drop in valuations would only exacerbate the problem by squeezing those who paid a premium for their homes when the market was at or near the top. Many of these buyers are now saddled with high mortgage payments and little equity in their homes. "We are seeing a considerable spike in stress even in more affluent households. Large mortgages, big commitments but no income growth," said Digital Finance Analytics Principal Martin North. "Stressed households are less likely to spend at the shops, which acts as a drag anchor on future growth." North estimates that a record 52,000 households risk default in the next 12 months, and that 23.4 percent of Australian families are under mortgage stress, meaning their income does not cover ongoing costs. That compares with about 19 percent from a year ago. "People are up to their ears in mortgages," said Brad Smith, a car sales consultant at MotorPoint Sydney which has seen a stark slowdown in sales in the past six months. "They are all on a budget. Everyone's got all their money in houses, that's how it is." For an economy that has achieved a remarkable winning streak – it has avoided a recession for more than 25 years – circumstances are looking bleak. "As the housing market slows, we see consumption growth as a major risk amid record-low wages growth and ongoing headwinds to discretionary cash flows," Morgan Stanley economist Daniel Blake said. Retail sales have hardly grown in the past few months. Even online sales have slowed, with all major categories including homeware, games and toys, daily deals and takeaway food shrinking in April, according to the NAB Online Retail Sales Index. Car sales have flattened this year after solid growth in 2016 while sales of luxury cars and sports utility vehicles are at a four-year low. For consumers like Sydney resident Marie-Aimee Guillermin, there's little 'play money' left after stepping into Sydney's housing market with a A$1.4 million 3-bedroom house last month. "We thought once we had the house we could take our foot off the brake a little bit but now that we have it I feel even less certain in terms of stability and financial security," she told Reuters. "So whether we'll end up spending a bit more on clothes and restaurants and going out and what have you I don't see that happening." Stock valuations have gotten so out of hand that one firm, Altair Asset Management, made the extraordinary decision to liquidate its Australia-focused fund and return "hundreds of millions" of dollars to its clients.

06 июня, 13:49

Gold Surges, Global Stocks Slide As "Super Thursday" Risks Loom

With traders realizing that the "Thursday Turmoil Trifecta" looms, world stocks dropped and safe-haven assets rose as investors focused on the growing tension in the Middle East, while caution spread across markets in a week full of risk events including James Comey’s congressional testimony to the ECB’s policy meeting and Britain’s increasingly uncertain election, all in the span of 24 hours. As a result, European and Asian stocks as well as S&P futures all fell, while gold, yen and Treasuries gained. World stocks edged further away from record highs hit last week, the MSCI world equity index fell 0.12%. Crude continued to decline despite OPEC's best efforts to stabilize its price, with WTI edging lower by 0.2% to $47.33 a barrel, after dropping as much as 1% and rising as much as 0.7% earlier. Quick recap of the trading action so far courtesy of Bloomberg's macro squawk wrap:  Europe follows defensive Asian session with little appetite for risk before events later in the week. USTs continue overnight rally, Eurodollar curve bull-flattens, bund and gilt futures move higher in tandem. DAX reopens after Whit Monday holiday and underperforms other European equity markets, construction sector lags; Banco Popular trades with small gains +1.8% after recent heavy losses. USD/JPY at overnight lows amid broad risk-off, USD grinds marginally higher from overnight lows against G-10; spot gold trades approximately $5 away from YTD high, EMFX led lower by ZAR, which spikes lower after South African economy enters recession. Focus overnight on PBOC conducting a 498b yuan 1-year MLF operation, Hibor rates continue to normalize after recent spike higher. In an otherwise quiet session, the big FX outlier was the yen which rose 0.7% to 109.70 per dollar, reaching the strongest level in six weeks, since April 21. The yen outperformed G10 currencies on haven demand while the pound also gained against the dollar ahead of Thursday’s U.K. election.  Declines in stocks and U.S. Treasury yields prompted yen buying, leading it to break the key 110 level against the dollar in Asian trading. “Investors appear nervous ahead of several key events on Thursday including the U.K. election, former FBI Director James Comey’s testimony before the U.S. Senate and the ECB meeting,” Credit Agricole SA strategists including Manuel Oliveri said in a note to clients Gold, which has become an inverse trade on the USDJPY, spiked above $1,290, advancing for a third day to the highest since April 18. 10-year Treasury yields fell to near the lowest since November. The dollar traded at an eight-month low. Europe’s benchmark share index dropped the most in a week led by Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG after one of its drug studies disappointed. Miners were among the biggest losers again as Bloomberg’s commodities index declined a sixth day. In Asia, Japan’s Topix index fell 0.8 percent after the yen strengthened. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 tumbled 1.5 percent, the most in more than two months and reaching the lowest since February. The Aussie dollar swung between gains and losses after the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.4 percent and the FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dropped 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge slid 0.1 percent Monday. Qatari stocks steadied after plunging the most since 2009 on Monday. Saudi Arabia and three other Arab countries severed most diplomatic and economic ties to the country. As first warned yesterday, Bloomberg again reminds us that all three major events - Comey, the ECB meet and British election - are set for Thursday, and as a result investors’ risk-off mood this week is understandable. It’s been compounded by a diplomatic spat among energy producing nations in the Middle East and a terror attack in London. “There is not much scheduled today that could potentially inspire the markets as the main focus this week is on ‘Super Thursday,”’ Piotr Matys, a London-based currency strategist at Rabobank, wrote in a client note. “Essentially, we brace for a volatile session on Thursday and Friday as at least one of those crucial events could trigger sharp moves in the markets.” Then there was Reuters, which notes that on what BayernLB analysts called "Super Thursday", British voters will go to polls in an increasingly unpredictable general election, the European Central Bank is due to meet and later the same day former FBI director James Comey will testify before Congress. "We have a big week or so ahead of us with the UK heading to the polls and the ECB announcing its latest monetary policy decision on Thursday and the Federal Reserve doing the same next Wednesday," said Craig Erlam, a market analyst for OANDA securities. "Once these events pass, we may have a little more clarity and therefore see a little less caution in the markets." The dollar, meanwhile, touched a seven-month low ahead of Comey's testimony. Reports suggest the former FBI chief plans to talk about conversations in which U.S. President Trump pressured him to drop his investigation into former national security adviser Mike Flynn, who was fired for failing to disclose conversations with Russian officials. The dollar index which tracks the currency against a basket of trade-weighted peers, fell to its lowest level since the November U.S. election. A quick look at the latest polls in the UK. There were a couple released overnight, the first was another YouGov poll (conducted 29 May-4 June) with a sample size of over 50,000 (8,000 votes were taken on 4 June) which showed the Conservatives as holding a 4% lead over Labour at 42-38%. The model also suggested that the Conservatives are on track to take between 268-344 seats which again suggested that the Tories could lose their majority (326 needed). Shortly after that an ICM/Guardian poll (2-4 June) of 2000 respondents showed the Conservatives as holding an 11% lead over Labour at 45-34%. That’s unchanged versus the same poll just under a week ago. Last night a Survation Poll for ITV showed the Conservatives as holding a 1% lead at 41% to 40%. It was noted that this poll was conducted over June 2-3 and prior to the weekend terror attack. Data on Monday of U.S. services sector activity slowing in May as new orders tumbled also hit the greenback.  JOLTS April job openings data due. Michaels, Keysight, HD Supply are among companies reporting earnings Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities enter the North American crossover in negative territory with underperformance in health care names, led by Roche Cable has tested 1.2950 but ran into a wall of selling interest here, but the pullback has found some support ahead of 1.2900 for now Looking ahead, US APIs and NZ GDT Index Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,431.75 MXAP down 0.2% to 155.09 MXAPJ down 0.3% to 502.27 Nikkei down 1% to 19,979.90 Topix down 0.8% to 1,596.44 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 25,997.14 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,102.13 Sensex down 0.3% to 31,223.91 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.5% to 5,667.47 Kospi down 0.1% to 2,368.62 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 390.43 German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.271% Euro down 0.03% to 1.1251 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.4% to $49.27/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 1.979% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.0 bps to 1.549% Gold spot up 0.8% to $1,289.46 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.71 Top Overnight News From Bloomberg U.K. Conservatives at 41.5%, Labour at 40.4%: Survation/GMB poll, Conservative lead falls from 17 points in Survation’s first poll in early May Spain: Banco Popular is preparing the sale of a real estate portfolio worth EU1.5b-EU2b according to Vozpopuli. Bank official says ECB is “perfectly informed” of the current situation Italy: lower house of parliament to start debate on new electoral law today after Constitutional Affairs Committee gave assent South Africa 1Q GDP q/q: -0.7% vs +1.0% est; economy in recession for the first time since 2009 RBA keeps cash rate at 1.50% as expected; says GDP expected to have slowed in the March quarter Qatar Crisis Draws Mediation Effort as Saudis Tighten Screws China Rebuffs U.S. Over Detainees Probing Ivanka Shoe Supplier Harvard Man Mindich Loses Out in Endowment Hedge Fund Overhaul Airbus to Cut A380 Output Below One a Month If No New Orders Brevan Howard’s Main Hedge Fund Loses Money for Third Month Anonymous Analytics Says Short-Selling Rival Got It Wrong on AAC Deutsche Bank Says It Can’t Share Details of Trump Relationship Asia traded mostly lower following a subdued Wall St. close where all 3 major indices finished with minor losses amid range-bound trade. ASX 200 (-1.4%) underperformed as the utilities, REIT and IT sectors weighed down the index, whilst Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) suffered as the JPY firmed across the board. Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.5%) were initially negative after the PBoC refrained from conducting repo operations, although the Chinese bourses attempted to recover following a CNY 498b1n medium lending term facility operation. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with only minimal gains seen amid a cautious risk tone, while the 30yr JGB auction also failed to spur firm demand despite the b/c printing its highest in 8 months of 3.63 (Prey. 3.35), as this was only a mild increase and other metrics were relatively stable from prior. PBoC skipped open market operations today, but conducted a CNY 498b1n Medium-Term Lending Facility operation. Top Asian News With 260-to-1 Leverage, A Chinese Giant Takes On Goldman in Repo Billionaire Draper Shuns China Investments Amid Capital Controls China Said to Give Banks More Time to Report on Exposures Beijing Jingyuntong Rises After Solar Pact with Wuhai Government Indian Power Surplus Outlook Signals Lagging Electrification Souring sentiment this morning in Europe with equities weighed by oil and healthcare names. The big story this morning, is Roche (-4.5%) shares on course for its worst day in 2'/ years after investors were disappointed with the company's Aphinity study results. Elsewhere, oil prices continue to slip due to the deepening diplomatic rift in the Middle East, this has also impacted the likes of Norsk Hydro who stated that exports from its Qatar-based JV aluminium plant were blocked. Fixed income markets at elevated levels amid the risk off tone, while the German curve has shown some bull flattening. Additionally, peripheral debt has been outperforming, with the Italian and Spanish 10yr widening against the German benchmark. Of note, supply kicked up a notch with Austria tapping 6s and 10s, while the UK issued 5yr debt which was well-digested by the market and caused little of the way in a reaction for UK paper. Top European News May Sends Johnson to Labour Heartland as Terror Shapes Campaign Popular in Fight to Survive as Bank Updates ECB on Situation German Top Court to Issue Nuclear-Fuel Tax Ruling June 7 Rocket-Backed Delivery Hero Targets $500 Million in IPO In currencies, the yen rose 0.7 percent to 109.70 per dollar as of 10:07 a.m. in London, reaching the strongest level since April 21. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent, trading at the lowest since October. The euro was little changed at $1.1254 and the British pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.2923. Watching USD/JPY, European markets have desisted from extending the USD/JPY push lower, and as we noted yesterday, 109.50-60 support here has been noteworthy, though we suspect a warranted push lower would have made light work of this. More support seen lower down at 109.00, but dealers report stops below here. Mid curve treasury yields have stabilised a little, so this is providing a near term prop, but Wall Street will likely dictate from current levels. In GBP, Cable has tested 1.2950 but ran into a wall of selling interest here, but the pullback has found some support ahead of 1.2900 for now. This will likely come under pressure as the election jitters are cranked up, and we suspect some of this is being reflected in the buoyant tone in EUR/GBP. Traders however, are also loath to sell out EUR/USD from current levels, as we await the ECB press conference on Thursday. The market is pre-empting some of communication leading to a change in tack in ECB policy, but expect Draghi and co to be as vague as possible, given their awareness of market eagerness to get 'ahead' of an eventual signal to reining in stimulus. In commodities, gold climbed 0.7 percent to $1,289.04 an ounce, advancing for a third day to the highest since April 18. WTI crude edged lower by 0.2 percent to $47.33 a barrel, after dropping as much as 1 percent and rising as much as 0.7 percent earlier. The notable mover today is Gold, pushing up towards USD1290+ levels on the back of the risk tone which is have been worsening over a combination of factors, but which until now, have done little to put a dent in the Wall Street climb higher. In spite of the gains seen in the S&P, Dow and NASDAQ, buyers of the safe haven have been `following' the yellow metal higher, with Silver lagging as we were trading on an USD18 handle the last time Gold was up here. Consequently, base metals are sporting a heavy tone, with Copper edging back to the lower end of the USD2.50-2.60 range. This is the underperformer on the day, with Platinum and Palladium showing modest gains on the day. Oil prices will remain heavy for the foreseeable future with focus on US shale production, but we continue to watch the API's (tonight) and the DoE report tomorrow. WTI struggles in the low USD47.00's, though we saw a snap up from sub figure levels this morning. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’s fairly quiet with the only releases scheduled being the Sentix investor confidence reading for June (expected to hold steady) and Euro area retail sales data for April (+0.2% mom expected). In the US the sole release is JOLTS job openings for April. Away from that we are expecting to receive the ECB’s latest CSPP and PSPP holdings data after technical issues yesterday delayed the release. US Event Calendar 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 5,750, prior 5,743 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap With bigger events to come later this week including a potential ‘super’ Thursday, markets never really got out of the starting blocks on Monday. Unsurprisingly much of the focus was of a political nature following the terrible London attack over the weekend and then the Qatar and Gulf news this time yesterday. The White House confirmed last night that President Trump is committed to holding talks with all parties in the Gulf in a bid to “de-escalate” the crisis. Qatar’s main stock exchange plummeted -7.27% and by the most since 2009. Oil was initially +1.50% higher as we went to print yesterday with WTI trading up at $48.42/bbl however that move was quickly reversed as the news was seen as having a limited impact on Gulf energy supplies. In the end WTI eventually closed last night at $47.40/bbl and over 2% off the highs and it is down another half a percent this morning. That was largely the limit of the excitement for markets though. The S&P 500 (-0.12%), Dow (-0.10%) and Stoxx 600 (-0.13%) all faded to small losses. The Nasdaq briefly touched a new intraday record high before also fading later in the session too to close -0.16%. Alphabet’s share pricing passing the $1,000 mark less than a week after Amazon achieved such a feat was a notable landmark however. If you are lucky enough to have bought and held since Google IPO’d then that’s a total return of 2260%. Meanwhile bond markets were also a bit weaker at the margin yesterday which more than likely reflected a fairly busy day for issuance in the US. 10y Treasury yields edged up 2.3bps to close at 2.183% while yields in Europe were up 1-2bps generally. Elsewhere, in FX Sterling recovered from early losses to close up +0.12% as markets digested the latest set of opinion polls (more on that shortly). Finally the rest of the commodities complex away from Oil was soft, particularly base metals like Aluminium (-1.45%), Zinc (-1.74%) and Iron Ore (-3.27%). It’s worth noting that Iron Ore is now down to the lowest level since October last year and over 41% off the February highs. In terms of the macro, yesterday’s US economic data wasn’t hugely inspiring. In a busier than usual day for releases following a Friday employment report, the main focus was on the ISM and PMIs. The  non-manufacturing ISM came in at 56.9 for May which was both down 0.6pts versus April and also a shade lower than the consensus of 57.1. The details were a bit more mixed. While new orders fell 5.6pts to 57.7 the employment component interestingly rose 6.4pts to 57.8 and to the highest since July 2015 which was a bit of a head scratcher given the soft payrolls report. Meanwhile the services PMI was revised down 0.6pts to 53.6 which has left the composite at 53.6 and up for the second month in a row (although below the January high of 55.8). Away from that there were some revisions made to both Q1 nonfarm productivity – which is now reported as being flat as opposed to the initial -0.6% reading – and unit labour costs (which were revised down to 2.2% from 3.0%). In other news factory orders were reported as falling -0.2% mom in April while core capex orders were revised up one-tenth to +0.1% mom. In Europe the main focus was on the remaining PMIs for May. The final services PMI for the Euro area was revised up one-tenth to 56.3 which means it is down just 0.1pts from the April high. That left the composite unrevised at 56.8 which is flat versus April. At a country level the services reading for France was revised down 0.8pts to a still relatively solid 57.2 while Germany was revised up 0.2pts to 55.4. In the periphery we saw small misses for both Spain and Italy. Our European economists made the important note that the details of the PMIs revealed that both input and output prices indices were revised slightly lower in the May data. This means PMI prices indices have retreated for the past 2-3 months and while they expect core inflation to begin to recover as we move into H2, much like the CPI report last month, these figures will do little to change the ECB’s cautious assessment. At a broad level however our economists also note that the PMIs are consistent with Q2 GDP growth of around +0.8% qoq assumingJune is unchanged which represents clear upside to their +0.5% qoq view. All eyes will be on the incoming Q2 hard data flow including some of the industrial data later this week. Switching over to the latest in Asia now where markets for the most part appear to be following the soft lead from Wall Street last night and trading slightly weaker. The Nikkei (-0.72%), Shanghai Comp (-0.20%), Kospi (-0.13%) and ASX (-1.07%) have all dipped lower with most sectors under pressure. The Hang Seng (+0.20%) is the only index current tracking higher. Gold (+0.39%) and the Yen (+0.52%) are also a little firmer reflecting the risk off moves while the Aussie Dollar is a little weaker ahead of the RBA meeting where no change in policy is expected. Back to the latest polls in the UK. There were a couple released in the morning. The first was another YouGov poll (conducted 29 May-4 June) with a sample size of over 50,000 (8,000 votes were taken on 4 June) which showed the Conservatives as holding a 4% lead over Labour at 42-38%. The model also suggested that the Conservatives are on track to take between 268-344 seats which again suggested that the Tories could lose their majority (326 needed). Shortly after that an ICM/Guardian poll (2-4 June) of 2000 respondents showed the Conservatives as holding an 11% lead over Labour at 45-34%. That’s unchanged versus the same poll just under a week ago. Last night a Survation Poll for ITV showed the Conservatives as holding a 1% lead at 41% to 40%. It was noted that this poll was conducted over June 2-3 and prior to  the weekend terror attack. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe it’s fairly quiet with the only releases scheduled being the Sentix investor confidence reading for June (expected to hold steady) and Euro area retail sales data for April (+0.2% mom expected). Over in the US this afternoon the sole release is JOLTS job openings for April. Away from that we are expecting to receive the ECB’s latest CSPP and PSPP holdings data after technical issues yesterday delayed the release. UK PM Theresa May is also due to take part in a live ITV interview this evening at 7.30pm BST.

06 июня, 12:50

Резервный Банк Австралии оставил основную процентную ставку на уровне 1,50%

На заседании 6 июня Комитет по кредитно-денежной политике Резервного Банка Австралии оставил основную процентную ставку без изменений на уровне 1,50%. Решение было ожидаемым для аналитиков и участников рынка.Деловые условия в Австралии улучшились, а уровень использования производственного потенциала увеличился, сказал в сопроводительном заявлении глава РБА Филип Лоуи. Годовой рост ВВП замедлился в первом квартале, отражая поквартальные изменения показателей роста. В течение следующих двух лет все также ожидается постепенное увеличение темпов экономического роста до уровня чуть выше 3%. Индикаторы рынка труда остаются смешанными. Различные опережающие индикаторы указывают на продолжение роста занятости в ближайшем будущем. Предполагается, что уровень инфляции будет повышаться постепенно по мере роста экономики. Этот прогноз по-прежнему базируется на низком уровне процентных ставок. При этом нежелательно, чтобы повышался курс австралийского доллара. Сохранение прежнего курса кредитно-денежной политики необходимо для устойчивого роста экономики и достижения инфляционной цели в долгосрочной перспективе, отмечено в заявлении. Источник: FxTeam

06 июня, 11:36

ЦБ Австралии оставил ставку без изменения

Резервный банк Австралии опроверг вероятное замедление в экономике, оставив базовую процентную ставку на прежнем уровне 10 месяц подряд во вторник, пишет Bloomberg.

06 июня, 11:36

ЦБ Австралии оставил ставку без изменения

Резервный банк Австралии опроверг вероятное замедление в экономике, оставив базовую процентную ставку на прежнем уровне 10-й месяц подряд во вторник, пишет Bloomberg.

06 июня, 09:32

Фондовые индексы АТР снижаются во вторник

Фондовые рынки стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона преимущественно опускаются во вторник, инвесторы с опасением ждут результатов парламентских выборов в Великобритании и заседания Европейского центрального банка (ЕЦБ).

06 июня, 09:01

Резервный банк Австралии помог австралийскому ...

Резервный банк Австралии ничем не удивил: ставка осталась прежней, на рекордном минимуме 1.5%; текст сопроводительного заявления также не изменился, несмотря на растущее беспокойство по поводу экономической динамики. Ранее сегодня был опубликован отчет по торговому балансу, который не оправдал ожиданий и заставил многих экономистов снизить прогнозы по ВВП за первый квартал. В сопроводи… читать далее…

06 июня, 08:18

Резервный банк Австралии оставил ключевую процентную ставку без изм, на уровне 1.50%

Сохранение ставок без изменений соответствует целям в отношении ВВП, инфляции Подъем в мировой экономике продолжается Условия на рынке жилья существенно варьируются Высокие уровни задолженности Китая представляют собой среднесрочный фактор риска Наблюдаются некоторые признаки ослабления роста цен на жилье Рост задолженности домохозяйств опережает их доходы Рост ВВП, вероятно, замедлился в 1-м квартале РБА ожидает, что рост ВВП будет постепенно усиливаться в следующие 2 года и составит чуть выше 3% Инфляция, вероятно, будет расти постепенно по мере укрепления экономики Укрепление австралийского доллара осложнит корректировку экономики Индикаторы рынка труда остаются неоднозначными Опережающие индикаторы рынка труда указывают на рост занятости Условия для ведения бизнеса улучшились, загруженность производственных мощностей выросла Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

06 июня, 08:13

Резервный банк Австралии оставил учетную ставку ...

Резервный банк Австралии оставил учетную ставку без изменений на уровне 1.5% Источник: Forexpf.Ru - Новости рынка Форекс