Submitted by Shant Movsesian (RANSquawk) and Rajan Dhall MSTA Weekly FX Outlook: Politics dominate yet again, as focus on Comey testimony set to determine Trump and USD fate. Fed minutes and OPEC meeting on the same day with the BoC thrown in! EUR on the front foot and leading the pack as growth and inflation stats heighten tapering expectations, greenback flagging. Late Thursday, social media released a video suggesting the ex-FBI director denied any experience of interference to any ‘bureau’ investigations, but questioning was not inferred on Donald Trump. As such, the president is not off the hook – far from it. Thin market conditions at the time produced some sharp USD moves to the upside, but have been all but reversed in full as US Treasury yields remain on the heavy side. Based on economic considerations, where the data has been tailing off of late, politics now ‘overlap’ as delays on tax reform will be seen to be exacerbated by the allegations on the head of state. Next week’s schedule picks up midweek, with the Fed meeting minutes making for a volatile North American session at the very least. The FOMC are likely to see recent softness (in growth, inflation and wages) as transient – a popular word of late – so expectations over a June hike may have receded from 90%+ to 74%+, but the yield curve has been wilting in the mid curve to signal market focus beyond next month and 2017. Of the data releases seen, Friday’s Q1 GDP seconding reading is standout, along with real consumer spending and the price index. Durable goods are also out at this time, with Q1 corporate profits also noteworthy. The day before we get the latest trade data, with housing data and the Markit PMIs set to be ‘lost’ in the Trump and Fed circumstance. For now, USD/JPY has tested some key levels and rebuffed them, with 114.50 holding on the upside, while pre-110.00 bids set the base after the recovery through 111.00. We see little prospect of a retest on the upper levels in the current climate, so it is not hard to see the rationale behind the near-term resistance ahead of 112.00. USD/CAD has also been confined to some relatively narrow ranges in the last few days, with the rejection of the 1.3800+ resistance levels we highlighted, largely down to exhaustion more than anything else. Yes, there are plenty of reasons to stay cautious on Canada, with the overhang of NAFTA renegotiations along with heavy Oil prices – which have since recovered some – and the Home Capital Group fiasco, but as we have seen in selling on uncertainty, there is clearly a limit, and we have gone past fair value levels, especially with some healthy data reads. Inflation is the exception to this, as today’s release confirmed. Core yoy CPI dipped back to 1.1% from 1.3% with the headline unchanged at 1.6%. This is something the BoC have consistently highlighted, in their seemingly perennial cautiousness, but this has been mirrored by the RBNZ and to a lesser degree the RBA. The Canadian central bank meeting is on Wednesday, so the volatility metrics are totting up (!), especially with OPEC scheduled to meet. Oil traders are looking for the major producers to extend the existing output deal, with consistent OPEC rhetoric suggesting an agreement has been made in principle. Saudi Arabia and Russia have touted a 9 month extension to the current production levels, so this would be the minimum which would appease the market, with WTI already struggling to reclaim the USD50.00 handle. Nb, Monday is a Canada day holiday. Onto Europe, and from a data perspective, there seems to be little which can deviate the market away from looking to a change in policy communication later in the year, perhaps next month? The rate of EUR gains seen against the USD may suggest this to a degree, but a large part of the move has been USD related. As such, barring any significant weakness in the PMI reports through the week and the German IFO survey on Tuesday, we can assume the single currency will remain near or at the top of the ‘destination flow’ list; the strong current account status adding appeal also. This has been a major detractor for the Pound over the years, but somewhat selectively so; coincidentally when Brexit fears were at their peak. This does not seem to be an issue at the moment though, with the data holding up well in the face of the uncertainty of life outside of the EU. Fears over the negotiations have also subsided to a significant degree, but EUR/GBP is pushing higher to suggest the tide may be turning again. Key trading partners Germany have been a little more conciliatory than some of the other member states, but the UK are adamant that they will walk away with no deal if it proves unfavourable. This would have hit GBP hard either side of the new year, but with the larger fund managers now looking at the UK with a positive light on a longer-term basis – as we suggested when Cable was trading nearer to 1.2000 – the mood on the Pound has changed, more so against the greenback. Key levels in the spot rate now lie at 1.3060-70 to upside, which has been initially rejected, but 1.3170 (ish) is next up should we push through this. EUR/GBP is struggling ahead of the 0.8600, briefly piercing this level over Wednesday and Thursday, but through here could see a run up to 0.8700, though pre-0.8800 is where the stronger selling interest lies. Thursday next week sees the preliminary GDP for Q1 (second reading), with business investment also one to watch. BoE head Carney testifies on inflation and the economic outlook to the TSC on Tuesday. For the Antipodeans, there is only the Q1 construction work done to look to in Australia, but this is the first metric to be incorporated into the GDP stats. Other than this, all eyes are on metals and the iron ore markets - demand from China ever a concern - which saw a modest relief recovery on Friday. Copper is back above USD2.55 for now, having survived a test on the band of support seen from USD2.50 to USD2.45. In NZ, the focus will be on the domestic Budget, but there will be relatively little towards business policies, and looks skewed towards social investment – teaching to get a large chunk. As such, there is unlikely to be much here to impact on the NZD, so broader risk sentiment and AUD/NZD trade will dictate.
Согласно мнению аналитиков банка Societe Generale австралийский доллар находится в устойчивом нисходящем движении и вскоре может добраться к важной поддержки в области $0.70. С одной стороны эксперты говорят о том, что индекс американского доллара достиг своего пика и в ближайшие несколько месяцев будет снижаться. С другой стороны, Резервный банк Австралии будет получать хорошие макроэкономические данные, что заставить ужесточить риторику регулятора. Это приведет к определенному укреплению австралийской валюты. С технической точки зрения, в районе цены $0.70 проходит очень сильная поддержка, которая может развернуть движение по AUD/USD. Учитывая все вышесказанное, аналитики Societe Generale рекомендуют покупать пару от $0.70 с прицелом на долгосрочное восстановление австралийского доллара. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
По данным ЦБ Австралии индекс делового доверия в стране в 1-м квартале повысился до 6 пунктов с 5 пунктов в 4-м квартале.
По данным ЦБ Австралии индекс делового доверия в стране в 1-м квартале повысился до 6 пунктов с 5 пунктов в 4-м квартале.
Australia Business confidence and conditions have reached record highs in April 2017.
Submitted by Shant Movsesian (RANSquawk) and Rajan Dhall MSTA All eyes on Sunday’s French election result, but little evidence of defensive positioning in the EUR. GBP continues to fly the flag, batting off the negative mood over the latest Brexit exchanges. Commodities in focus, but tentative signs of some near term relief. CAD overstretched. US jobs report mixed at best. The week after the US non-farm payrolls is usually a quiet affair, but by the time the Asian session Sunday is up and running, we should have a good idea of the outright winner of this weekend’s French election. Given the extremist stance of Macron’s opponent, who still has carries a near 40% vote according to the polls, the markets are pretty comfortable with his lead, and this has been telling in the lack of defensive pre-weekend positioning in the EUR. Should this confidence be vindicated in the result, then we would assume the lead spot rate would make easy work of the 1.1000 level, which was/is still vulnerable into the weekend. We saw the 1.0950 top removed on Thursday on the back of the stronger EU wide stats, which sees the periphery showing some encouraging signs according to the Italian PMIs and Spanish employment numbers in particular. Anecdotal evidence shows hedge funds are looking a little more favourably on the Euro zone, with inflation also on the rise again, but in the interests of moderation (not an easy one for the current market make-up), we would expect 1.1100-1.1200 would be cause for a pause unless US Treasury yields take off. There was little evidence of this after Friday’s Apr US jobs report, with the headline rise of 211k offset by the revision lower to Mar. Wage growth, as ever in focus, but coming in line with the +0.3% expected, Mar was also revised lower to contained the immediate excitement. We continue to monitor productivity, which fell 0.6% in Q1 and has been consistently highlighted by Fed chair Yellen. Taking this into account, USD bulls are surely getting frustrated, and are, or should be looking past 2017 which is still in the balance for 1 or 2 rate hikes - June or otherwise. Next week’s US data is stacked up on Friday, comprising of Apr CPI and retail sales. In Europe, we have a series of industrial production releases through the week, with German GDP on Friday, and seen rising 0.7% over Q1. USD/JPY in the meantime, is also ‘riding’ on hopes of a stronger revival in the reflation trade, and at circa 112.00-50, looks a little elevated in the 108.00-115.00 range, but having rejected 113.00. BoJ’s Kuroda has struck a more optimistic tone as he pointed to a narrowing output gap, as well as tightening labour market which should push wages higher. This saw a minor blip lower, but with no changes in the pipeline on yield control, this pair remains a pure USD trade for now. In the UK, the Brexit joust with Europe is well under way. However, rising valuations on the exit payment this week passed with limited damage on the Pound, though Theresa May’s exclusion from EU meetings from hereon out prompted a mini sell off which was swiftly reversed. We hear greater numbers of fund managers showing increased confidence in the economy outside of the EU, with dips in Cable of late noticeably shallower. 1.2800 looks to be the latest base in formation, while in EUR/GBP, sellers above 0.8500 will have been a little more confident - certainly this side of the weekend. Away from all things Brexit, we look to Super Thursday, with the Quarterly Inflation report keenly eyed. The consensus is still for the MPC to stand pat on rates, and this is light of some members leaning towards lone hawk Forbes. The meeting minutes will tell us more. We should expect some volatility around BoE governor’s press conference, as we anticipate questioning on the timing of the next rate move (higher), but those arguing to temper an inflation overshoot should take into account the recent GBP gains, albeit still undervalued on WPI. Weakness in the commodity markets have had a pronounced impact on AUD and CAD. Copper & iron ore prices have been on the slide to pull the former below 0.7400, but through the figure level, there looks to be limited momentum. This aligns with the support coming in on the underlying, as Copper grapples with range lows in the USD2.50-2.45 area. The RBA statement this week made it clear that interest rates are on hold with the mix of concerns offering limited scope either way, and household debt is firmly on the radar as well as global demand in general. Retail sales and housing/building stats next week are unlikely to be game changers – all eyes fixed on metals. Oil markets are clearly taking a dim view, as the sell off this week saw WTI falling to levels just under USD44.00 before stabilising, with momentum generated from the Brent snap through USD50.00 which saw USD47.00 breached. Both grades have since recovered by USD1.5-2.0 or so, while OPEC continue to talk up hopes of an extension to the production cuts into H1. USD/CAD has been on a one way ramp which saw us getting to within touching distance of 1.3800 after the latest leg down to Oil. NAFTA worries have receded a little, but will continue to weigh. On the domestic data front, we saw a very modest rise in Apr jobs, and all in part time, but the unemployment rate eased back to 6.5%. Even so, the CAD is overstretched and undervalued vs the USD, and our highlighted resistance zone at 1.3800-50 remains intact – for now. The BoC quarterly review is due out on Monday, and given their perennial cautiousness, will make for some interesting reading given the (net) encouraging data run of late, barring sluggish inflation. The RBNZ (Wednesday) may give some support to the ailing NZD, which has been hit in tandem with the leading risk currencies, but has outperformed its counterpart across the waters. The cross rate eyes sub 1.0700 again, but we noted strong demand in the mid 1.0600’s last month which may dissuade aggressive sales from here. Against this however, we have seen Q1 employment gaining by a larger than expected 1.2%, while dairy prices are holding up, so governor Wheeler has cause for optimism.
Фондовые индексы Гонконга, Китая и Австралии снизились в пятницу вслед за падением цен на сырье, пишет MarketWatch.
With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report (full preview here). In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed. The main in the overnight session was oil's sudden slide below $45 a barrel for the first time since OPEC agreed to cut output in November. As noted earlier, in less than 10 minutes on Friday, U.S. futures slumped more than $1 amid a surge in volume, launching a modest scramble into safe haven assets such as Treasurys, yen and gold. They have collapsed 8.6 percent this week, erasing all gains since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries signed a six-month deal in November to curb production and ease a global glut. Things only began to stabilize when Saudi Arabia's OPEC chief did the usual jawboning routine, hitting the wires in European hours and saying there was a growing consensus among oil pumping countries that they needed to continue to "rebalance" the market. Specifically, the Saudi OPEC governor's comments that: "A six-month extension (to production cuts) may be needed to rebalance the market, but the length of the extension is not firm yet." Which while nothing new, provided a floor to the overnight dump and a signal to BTD. As a result of the plunge, which has since mostly recovered, the Bloomberg Commodity Index slumped to lowest in a year, weighed by oil and iron ore. "Markets are losing faith that the global inventory glut will disappear on OPEC’s cuts,” said Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. Following the unexpected snap, stocks flinched both in Asia and Europe, catching investors that had been expecting to spend the day mostly looking ahead to U.S. jobs data and Sunday's French elections, on the back foot. "The whole commodity complex has been affected by this and it could have some pretty big implications if it continues for much longer," said Saxo bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy. "If you look at global risk appetite, equities have been pretty quiet and that feeds into FX as well if carries on and there is a risk switch." As Reuters adds, oil wasn't the only commodity that suffered, with Chinese iron ore futures falling almost 7% in Shanghai after tumbling 8% on Thursday. The Canadian dollar, the Australian dollar and Russia's rouble - the world's commodity- sensitive currencies - were all sent spinning, falling respectively to 14-month, four-month and seven-week lows. Today's key event is the April payrolls number. Following that soft 98k reading in March (which was more than likely weather-related) the market consensus for today’s print is a more sturdy 190k number. DB expects this rebound to be driven by two main factors. The first is initial jobless claims remaining near a roughly four-decade low and the second being that employee tax withholding receipts are growing at a very healthy rate, indicating a pick-up in income growth. It is worth adding though that while the ADP print earlier this week was fairly solid the employment components from the two ISMs has revealed some softening so that might sound some caution. As always keep an eye on the other components of the employment report including unemployment (expected to nudge up one-tenth to 4.6%), average hourly earnings (+0.3% mom expected) and the participation rate. The report is due out at 8.30am. European shares declined and the dollar was mixed against its peers ahead of U.S. employment report. The Stoxx 600 index’s fall tracked declines in much of Asia and in U.S. futures. Gold climbed from a seven-week low and iron ore fell for a third day. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.8 percent at 3,103 after earlier dropping below 3,100. The gauge neared its lowest close this year S&P 500 futures were steady ahead of the U.S. monthly jobs report, with energy shares understandably in the spotlight as oil prices remained volatile after dropping below $45 a barrel for the first time since November. S&P 500 contracts expiring in June were little changed at 2,386 at 6:30 a.m. ET. The benchmark has been moving in a tight range this week, despite relatively strong corporate results. Contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were steady at 20,857. The euro meanwhile touched six-months highs of almost $1.10 ahead of France's weekend election, in which polls now expect centrist Emmanuel Macron to convincingly beat right-wing and anti-euro rival Marine Le Pen. The gap between French and German 10-year government borrowing costs also hit a six-month low and despite the dip on the day, European shares were heading for a healthy 1.2 percent rise for the week. The dollar and U.S. government bond yields had both been nudged lower by the commodity market worries. It is set to be the fourth weekly fall on the trot for the greenback which is now at its lowest since November. The yen and gold rose in tandem as investors took refuge in safe havens, though the latter remained on track for its biggest weekly decline in nearly six months on bets that U.S. interest rates will rise again in the coming months. A handful of bearish comments emerged overnight, such as Hermes chief economist Neil Williams who said that "I think the payrolls will be under consensus. It fits with my view that the U.S. is going to peak out at a far lower interest rate than markets expect. The Fed's dot plots says 3 percent, but I'm going closer to 1.5 percent." Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities trading in tentative fashion ahead of US NFP report. GBP slightly firmer with the Conservative party receiving strong support in local elections. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, Canadian jobs report as well as a slew of Fed speak. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,386.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 391.42 MXAP down 0.3% to 148.64 MXAPJ down 0.7% to 483.87 Nikkei up 0.7% to 19,445.70 Topix up 0.7% to 1,550.30 Hang Seng Index down 0.8% to 24,476.35 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,103.04 Sensex down 0.7% to 29,909.09 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,836.56 Kospi up 1% to 2,241.24 German 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 0.376% Euro down 0.2% to 1.0969 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.9% to $48.79/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.958% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 1.582% Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,232.79 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 98.81 Top Overnight News from Bloomberg Within minutes of U.S. crude-oil futures tumbling through $45/barrel, signs of broader risk-off emerged, exacerbating what was already brewing as worrying week for commodities Chinese stocks sank in Shanghai and Hong Kong as concern over Beijing’s efforts to reduce leverage in financial system persisted and as selloff in commodities spilled into equity Trump Takeaway From Health Bill Fight: Do Your Own Arm- Twisting Bosch Said to Win Some IPhone Orders in Blow to InvenSense BHP Said Planning to Meet Tribeca in Investor Talks This Month Nickel Drops to Lowest Since June as Supply Worries Fade U.K. Local Votes Bode Well for May’s Bid for Bigger Majority Decision Time for France as Polls Show Macron’s Lead Holding InterContinental 1Q Revpar Grows, Names Keith Barr as CEO VW Brand Sees ‘Substantial’ Improvement as Turnaround Takes Hold Vestas Rises to 9-Year High as Quarterly Profit Quadruples Thai Internet Providers to Pressure Facebook on Content: Nation Asia equity markets traded negative amid commodity weakness in which oil continued its sell-off, while the looming US NFP data also added to the subdued tone. ASX 200 (-0.8%) was led lower by miners and energy names after metals remained weak and WTI crude futures extended on yesterday's 5% drop amid oversupply concerns. However, telecoms outperformed as Telstra shares surged after ACCC ruled the Co. doesn't need to share its network infrastructure with competitors. Shanghai Comp. (-0.7%) and Hang Seng (-0.4%) also reflected the downbeat tone amid tighter liquidity by the PBoC, after it refrained from open market operations which resulted to a CNY 60bIn net daily drain. Finally, Japan and South Korea remained closed for Children's Day. PBoC refrained from open market operations today, for a net injection of CNY 10bIn vs. Prey. CNY 70bIn net injection last week. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.8884 (Prey. 6.8957) Top Asian News India Said to Be Concerned on Potential INR Carry Trade Reversal Chinese Shares Tumble as Oil Slump Exacerbates Drop on Crackdown China’s New Jet Takes Off to Challenge Boeing and Bolster Xi BHP Hit With New Activist Plan From Top Hedge Fund Performer Kuroda Confident Can Raise Wages, Prices ’Significantly’: CNBC European equities have kicked off the final trading session of the week in modest negative territory (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) amid tentative trade ahead of NFP later today. In terms of sector specifics, energy names are the notable outperformers as European trade has seen a modest recovery in energy prices despite the market appearing to lose confidence in OPEC's ability to continue to prop up prices. Elsewhere, European earnings have been on the light side today with markets pausing for breath ahead of NFP. Similar rangebound price action has also been observed in fixed income markets with Bunds trading in close proximity to recent losses seen in the wake of the FOMC on Wednesday. OATs are also relatively stable ahead of this weekend's French election. Top European News Capital Levels Slide at Italy’s Paschi After Run of Losses Czech Premier Withdraws His Offer to Resign in Surprise Move European Company 1Q EPS Rises 27%, Heads for Beat: Deutsche Bank Saxo Bank Co-Founder Agrees to Sell His 25% Stake to Geely BofAML Expects Euro, Dollar Gain This Summer, Sees Sterling Dip Vestas Climbs to 9-Year High After Quarterly Profit Quadruples Iron Ore’s Brutal Week Opens Pathway for Retreat Into the $50s In currencies, focus early was on GBP with the Conservatives cleaning up in local elections at the expense of their rivals ahead of next month's general election with prices moving ever closer towards 1.3000. USD/JPY continues to attract the bulk of US data driven trade, but we saw 113.00 holding firm on Thursday before fading risk sentiment added to the pullback which now sees us trading in the low 112.00's. AUD continues to edge lower, now sub 0.74, but momentum has been slowing. Base metals and Copper in particular have been the primary drag with Dalion iron ore futures slipping yet again, and this in light of an RBA strongly suggesting rates will stay on hold. In commodities, a bulk of the focus has been on energy markets with WTI crude futures falling off a cliff overnight in extension of Thursday's 4.8% losses. There was no fresh immediate catalyst for the decline but there are currently a multitude of bearish factors in the market, most notably; Increasing cynicism about OPEC's ability to ease the global supply glut, Increasing output from US shale producers, Increasing production from Libya and demand-side concerns. That said, European hours have seen a modest recovery as buyers have entered the market ahead of the touted support zone seen in WTI at USD 44.00. Elsewhere, the majority of commodities remained subdued with Dalian iron futures down a further 6% in early trade to a near 4-month low, although gold found slight reprieve as the oil sell-off spurred safe-haven flows. Looking at the day ahead, all eyes will be on the aforementioned US April employment report. Also due out today is the March consumer credit reading for the US. Away from the data both the EU’s Juncker and Tusk are scheduled to speak today while over at the Fed it is a packed day for Fedspeak with Fischer (4.30pm BST), Williams (5.45pm BST) and Yellen (6.30pm BST) all speaking at separate. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 98,000 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Change in Private Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 89,000 Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 10,000, prior 11,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.6%, prior 4.5% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2% Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.7% Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.3 Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 63.0% Underemployment Rate, prior 8.9% 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $14.0b, prior $15.2b Central Banks 11:30am: Fed’s Fischer Speaks at Hoover Event in Stanford 12:45pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks in Keynote in New York 1:30pm: Fed’s Rosengren, Evans and Bullard on Hoover Institution Panel 1:30pm: Fed’s Yellen Speaks at Brown University DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The biggest news in the UK yesterday was that of Prince Philip who announced his retirement later this year at the age of 96 after seven decades of being at the Queen's side. At this stage I can't imagine still writing research for another 53 years but over the last few weeks I've compiled a spreadsheet of the extra costs that having twins will entail over the coming years (and maybe decades) and I can only conclude that I might need to marry the Queen myself to afford retirement. So here's to the Early Morning Reid of 2070 where we'll probably still be explaining that Bund yields are too low, US equities are overvalued, defaults remain structurally low and pondering why England haven't won the World Cup for 104 years. Back to the present and there's been a fascinating face-off in markets over the last 24 hours between tumbling commodity prices but rising bond yields. On a day when 10y Bunds climbed +6.8bps to the highest yield in 5 and a bit weeks we saw WTI Oil slump -4.81%. It’s tumbled a further -2.99% this morning as well and at one stage went below $44/bbl for the first time since November last year. Needless to say the moves over the last 24 hours has seen Oil more than wipe out the post OPEC supply cut agreement gains (its currently at the lowest level since November 15th at $44.19/bbl). A few factors seem to be contributing to the move. Wednesday’s weekly EIA data provided further evidence of historically high crude stockpiles levels. Increasing production out of Libya is also contributing in addition to the shale production growth story in the US. There was also some chatter about Brent and WTI slicing through key support levels yesterday which only seemed to add fuel to fire. It’s not just Oil which is having a rough time of late though as metals are also feeling the pain. Iron Ore tumbled -5.07% yesterday, Copper fell -1.02%, Aluminium -0.57% and Nickel -2.33% with the soft China PMIs in April following a soft Q1 GDP print in the US being billed as the main justification for the move, while tighter liquidity conditions in China is also contributing with onshore money-market rates at two-year highs. Gold (-0.81%) and Silver (-0.89%) also fell for a second day post the FOMC yesterday. Indeed the broad CRB commodity index closed down -1.88% last night and has now fallen 11 times in the last 14 trading days to the lowest level since April 2016. In terms of the move in Bunds, the early rise for yields can be attributed to some catch-up to the Treasury move following the FOMC however there was some interesting ECB speak yesterday which also caught the bond market’s attention. Specifically it was the comments from ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet who, on the topic of when a tightening in rates might follow the end of QE, said “we say ‘well past’ but this is a judgement which will be very much data dependent” and that “it can be long, it can be short”. The most important element of his speech however was his well highlighted flag that June is the meeting where the ECB is likely to formally change its balance of risk assessment and possibly forward guidance. Indeed Praet said that “looking forward to our next monetary policy in June, we will be able to draw on a more expanded information set than is available today, organised around new projections and including an updated assessment of the distribution of risks surrounding the economic outlook”. ECB President Draghi also spoke yesterday but his comments were a bit of a nonevent for markets. As well as the move for Bunds, Treasury yields edged up another 3.6bps to 2.355% and are now at the highest since April 10th. At the other end of the spectrum risk assets have proved to be incredibly resilient to the selloff in commodities. Despite the energy sector doing its best to drag the broader index lower the S&P 500 closed +0.06% last night and has now moved up or down by less than 0.20% for each of the last 7 sessions which ties the longest ever run of such narrow ranges according to Bloomberg, set in 1972. US credit markets were similarly subdued with CDX IG fading into the close but still only closing 0.6bps wider. On the politics front, as expected the healthcare bill was voted on and was passed by House Republicans by a small majority of 217-213 votes, and so scoring a first big legislative victory for President Trump. The real test will now come in the Senate however where the bill’s passage is far from certain to be passed. So these have been the key themes over the last 24 hours. A reminder that this Sunday brings the second round of the French elections with markets pricing in a very very low probability of anything other than a Macron victory which according to all the polls is fair enough. More immediate though is today's US payrolls number. Following that soft 98k reading in March (which was more than likely weather-related) the market consensus for today’s print is a more sturdy 190k number while our US economists are a little bit above market at 200k. The team expect this rebound to be driven by two main factors. The first is initial jobless claims remaining near a roughly four-decade low and the second being that employee tax withholding receipts are growing at a very healthy rate, indicating a pick-up in income growth. It is worth adding though that while the ADP print earlier this week was fairly solid the employment components from the two ISMs has revealed some softening so that might sound some caution. As always keep an eye on the other components of the employment report including unemployment (expected to nudge up one-tenth to 4.6%), average hourly earnings (+0.3% mom expected) and the participation rate. The report is due out at 1.30pm BST. Before we get there, overnight in Asia we’ve continued to see base metals remain under pressure and that, along with the move for Oil, is weighing on equity bourses with the ASX (-0.76%), Hang Seng (-1.07%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.85%) all in the red. Markets in Japan and South Korea are closed. Commodity sensitive currencies including the Aussie Dollar (-0.47%), Norwegian Krone (-0.42%) and Canadian Dollar (-0.27%) are also weaker in the early going. US equity index futures are also pointing towards a softer start. With regards to the economic data yesterday, also helping the Bund move (and a strong session for European equities with the Stoxx 600 firming +0.67%) was a slight upward revision to the services PMI for the Euro area in April to 56.4 from 56.2, led by a big upward revision for Germany to 55.4 from 54.7. France was revised down 1pt to 56.7 while data in Italy (56.2 vs. 53.6 expected; 52.9 previously) was also a big upward surprise. Over in the UK the services PMI also printed at a better than expected 55.8 which was an increase of 0.8pts. That helped to push the composite to 56.2 and the highest since December. Over in the the US yesterday Q1 non-farm productivity came in at a softer than expected -0.6% qoq (vs. -0.1% expected) which leaves through-year growth at just +1.1% yoy. Meanwhile unit labour costs were reported as rising +3.0% qoq which was a little more than expected. Away from that the March trade deficit of $43.7bn was marginally lower than what it was in February. Factory orders rose +0.2% mom in March (vs. +0.4% expected) while February orders were also revised up. Finally initial jobless claims were reported as declining 19k to 238k last week. Meanwhile the only other data in Europe aside from those MIs came from the UK. Mortgage approvals in March fell to 66.8k (-1.1k decline) and a little bit more than expected while the M4 money supply rose +0.3% mom and +6.6% yoy (from +5.9%). Looking at the day ahead, there’s nothing to report of in Europe this morning. Instead all eyes will be on the aforementioned US April employment report this afternoon. Also due out this evening is the March consumer credit reading for the US. Away from the data both the EU’s Juncker and Tusk are scheduled to speak today while over at the Fed it is a packed day for Fedspeak with Fischer (4.30pm BST), Williams (5.45pm BST) and Yellen (6.30pm BST) all speaking at separate events while Rosengren, Evans and Bullard are scheduled to take part in a panel debate on monetary policy at 6.30pm BST. On the earnings front it’s a quiet end to the week with Berkshire Hathaway the most notable release. Before we sign off, it goes without saying that the big event this weekend is the French election on Sunday. In terms of timing polls are due to close at 8pm BST in most of France and 9pm BST in the big cities.
Сегодня Резервный банк Австралии оставил прогнозы по инфляции без изменений. Согласно комментариям РБА, инфляция в Австралии составит 2%-3% в течение прогнозного периода, а базовая инфляция достигнет 2% в начале 2018 года. В целом, по мнению руководства центробанка наблюдается большая уверенность в прогнозе о повышении инфляции. "Мы ожидали, что прогноз РБА в отношении базовой инфляции останется прежним, но это стало неожиданностью для показателя общей инфляции ", - говорят в ANZ. В ANZ отмечают, оптимистичный комментарий РБА в отношении общей инфляции не соответствует тому, что соответствующий прогноз не был пересмотрен в сторону повышения. Также по прогнозу ANZ, ключевая процентная ставка австралийского центробанка будет оставаться без изменений в течение длительного периода времени. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
В своем последнем ежеквартальном заявлении Резервный банк Австралии не выразил существенной обеспокоенности низким уровнем инфляции. Согласно мнению аналитиков Capital Economics, это означает что дальнейшее снижение учетной ставки стало менее вероятно. Тем не менее, в регуляторе не ждут достаточного роста инфляции, чтобы начать повышать ставку, которая на данный момент находится на историческом минимуме 1.5%. Эксперты Capital Economics заявили, что опираясь на слабый рост ВВП и инфляции ожидать повышение учетной ставки до 2020 года не стоит. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Согласно опубликованным сегодня комментариям, РБА ожидает, что инфляция в Австралии составит 2%-3% в течение пргнозного периода и что базовая инфляция достигнет 2% в начале 2018 года. Наблюдается большая уверенность в прогнозе о повышении инфляции Также в центробанке отметили, что незначительное замедление роста ВВП Австралии вызвано циклоном Дебби и снижением экспорта угля Ожидается падение цен на насыпные сырьевые товары, но сейчас влияние низких инвестиций в горнодобывающую отрасль на ВВП в основном сошло на нет, говорится в заявлении. Ограничения ипотечного кредитования, как ожидается, снизят риски рынка жилья. Рост жилищного кредитования в основном устойчив Мировая экономика в начале 2017 года окрепла. Экономический рост Китая остается сильным. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Австралия. Резервный Банк Австралии: прогнозы по инфляции и ВВП не претерпели существенных изменений с февраля, уверенность в том, что инфляция постепенно будет расти, усилилась. Китай остается ключевым фактором неопределенности для цен на сырье, экспортного сектора. Прогнозы РБА: По ВВП: 1.5% - 2.5% на июнь 2017 2.5% - 3.5% на декабрь 2017 2.75% - 3.75% на середину 2018, декабрь 2018 и июнь 2019 По уровню безработицы: читать далее…
Руководство Резервного банка Австралии сообщило о решении сохранить основную процентную ставку без изменений на рекордно низком уровне на фоне существующего оптимизма по поводу достаточно высоких темпов роста национальной экономики. Совет Резервного банка Австралии во главе с председателем Филипом Лоу принял решение оставить ключевую процентную ставку на отметке 1,5%. Отметим, что ставка рефинансирования в Австралии находится на текущем уровне уже восьмой месяц подряд. По прогнозам центрального банка, темпы экономического роста в Австралии должны постепенно достигнуть и немного превысить отметку 3% в течение ближайших нескольких лет. Как отмечается в заявлении банка, улучшение ситуации в мировой экономики привело к повышению цен на сырье, что, в свою очередь, обеспечило значительный рост национального дохода Австралии. Также Резервный банк Австралии отметил, что различные опережающие индикаторы свидетельствуют о продолжающемся росте занятости. Центральный банк прогнозирует постепенное снижение уровня безработицы в стране. При этом темпы роста уровня оплаты труда остаются медленными, и данная ситуация будет сохраняться в течение еще некоторого времени. Кроме того, центральный банк заявил о росте инфляции выше отметки 2% в первом квартале. Резервный банк Австралии ожидает дальнейшее ускорение темпов инфляции по мере усиления национальной экономики. Источник: FxTeam
This morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates on hold at 1.5% which was in line with market expectations. The RBA sees an upswing in the global economy and foresees Australian economic growth to increase gradually at around 3% over the next couple of years, helped by rising in mining in-vestment and higher exports of resources. In terms of the labour market the unemployment rate is expected to drop over time, but wage growth remains slow. Overall, the economic outlook is sound, nevertheless, the bullish momentum of the Aussie will likely be restrained due to the concern over the slow wage growth. AUD/USD has rebounded after hitting a low of 0.7439 on April 27, last seen on January 12. The RBA’s sound economic outlook lifted AUD/USD touching a 1-week high of 0.7555 in early hours of this morning, testing the near-term major downtrend line resistance. That said, the price has retraced as the pressure at these levels is heavy. The 4-hourly Stochastic Oscillator Is heading downward, suggesting further retracement. The resistance level is at 0.7530, followed by 0.7550 and 0.7560. The support line is at 0.7510, followed by the psychological level at 0.7500 and 0.7485. The FOMC meeting will be held on Wednesday May 3. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates in June instead of May. Nevertheless, we might get further clues about the probability of a rate hike in June from Fed Chair Yellen’s tone of her speech. The recent weak US economic data might make Yellen’s speech less hawkish. Per the CME’s FedWach tool, the probability for a rate hike in June is 67.4%.
Влияние на рынок:1Devata TsengЭтим утром Резервный Банк Австралии (РБА) заявил, что сохранит ключевую ставку на уровне 1.5%, что соответствует рыночным ожиданиям.РБА ожидает подъёма мировой экономики, а также прогнозирует, что экономический рост Австралии постепенно будет увеличиваться до уровня около 3% в течение следующих нескольких лет, чему поможет рост инвестиций в горнодобывающий сектор, а также экспорт ресурсов.Уровень безработицы, как прогнозируется, снизится с течением времени. Тем не менее, рост зарплат остается низким.В целом же, экономические перспективы остаются неплохими, тем не менее, бычий импульс по осси, вероятно, будет сдержан в связи с опасениями вокруг слабого роста оплаты труда.Пара AUD/USD отскакивала после пробивания 27 апреля минимума с 12 января на 0.7439.Благоприятные экономические перспективы РБА толкнули вверх пару AUD/USD, и она коснулась максимума на 0.7555 в первые торговые часы, тестируя важный краткосрочный уровень сопротивления.Тем не менее, цена скорректировалась, так как давление на этом уровне достаточно сильно.Линии Стохастика на 4-часовом графике направляются вниз, указывая на коррекцию.Уровень сопротивления находится на 0.7530, следом идут 0.7550 и 0.7560.Уровень поддержки находится на 0.7510, следом идёт психологический уровень 0.7500 и 0.7485.Заседание Федерального комитета по операциям на открытом рынке ФРС США состоится в среду 3 мая. Рынки ожидают, что ФРС повысит ставки в июне. Тем не менее, мы сможем услышать новые подробности в отношении вероятности повышения ставки в июне от Йеллен во время её выступления. Последние слабые экономические данные из США могут сделать выступление Йеллен менее ястребиным. Инструмент FedWatch Tool показывает вероятность повышения процентных ставок в июне на уровне 67.4%.Имейте в виду, что выступление Йеллен, вероятно, вызовет волатильность по доллару и кроссам с валютой. Мягкое заявление, вероятно, окажет давление на доллар, толкнёт пару AUD/USD вверх. В случае ястребиного заявления, вероятно, это укрепит американский доллар и толкнёт вниз AUD/USD.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/market-snapshots/02052017-byiki-po-aud-usd-otstupayut-posle-testirovaniya-urovnya-soprotivleniya/ ..Источник: FxTeam
With the Fed set to begin its latest 2-day meeting (no rate hike is expected), S&P futures are little changed with European and Asian stocks higher after the VIX dropped to a 10 year low and the Nasdaq rose to record highs, sending the MSCI All-Country Index back to all time highs, as global markets reopen after holiday with investors focusing on stronger corporate earnings, while ignoring weaker than expected "hard" economic data and geopolitical concerns. The yen extended losses, with the USDJPY rising to the highest since March 21; gold slid and WTI crude futures rose while Treasury yields climbed after Steven Mnuchin said it “could absolutely make sense” for the U.S. to sell ultra-long bonds. The MSCI All-Country World Index was poised for another all time high, as global market cap once again rose above $50 trillion. European shares advanced after the May 1 holiday, as BP jumped after posting stronger than expected earnings. European government bonds fell across the board. The Nasdaq Composite index hit a record high on Monday as the world's five largest companies by market capitalization -- Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Facebook -- all hit intraday or closing highs. “Risk assets are performing well and investors are clearly bullish,” Claudio Piron, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a client note. “Nevertheless, we advise caution and this month is especially notorious for its refrain to ’Sell in May’,” he added, although lately it appears that nothing can dent the bullish mood on Wall Street, where the VIX "fear gauge" closed at its lowest since before the global financial crisis on Monday. The MSCI All-Country World Index rose 0.1 percent as of 10:35 a.m. in London. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.2 percent, with BP climbing 1.6 percent, and the banking sub-index was up 0.4 percent, showing no reaction to comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who told Bloomberg Television he was actively considering breaking up big banks. The Topix index rose 0.7 percent to the highest since March 21 as the yen weakened. Japanese markets will be closed for holidays over the next three days. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.5 percent to its highest level since June 2015, as many of the region's markets also reopened after a long holiday weekend. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.7 percent after some robust earnings. South Korea paced gains, with the Kospi briefly topping its 2011 peak. Much of the market's attention has fallen on forecast-beating corporate earnings which have helped push shares higher across the globe this year. First-quarter profits at S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 13.6 percent, the strongest rise since 2011, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. European equivalents are seen up 13.9 percent. "Higher corporate earnings and tax reform seem to be more important to the market than any off-the-cuff remark from Trump. That means people are not buying protection in the options market to protect themselves from a drop in the market," said Neil Wilson, senior market analyst at ETX Capital. Strong earnings have outweighed concern over patches of weak economic data. An official survey on Tuesday showed Chinese factory activity growth slowed more than expected in April. The ISM measure of U.S. manufacturing activity also undershot forecasts on Monday. "Soft" data in Europe was better with Euro-area factories expanding output at the fastest pace since 2011. The Markit Manufacturing PMI gauge rose to 56.7 in April from 56.2 the previous month, IHS Markit reported on Tuesday. An April 21 preliminary estimate was for an increase to 56.8. “Companies are benefiting from the historically weak euro, improved growth in key export markets, rising domestic demand and ongoing central-bank stimulus including record-low interest rates,” said Chris Williamson, chief economist at IHS Markit. “Optimism about the year ahead, meanwhile, appears unaffected by political worries.” The dollar hit a one-month high against the safe-haven Japanese yen on some signs of easing tensions over North Korea and as U.S. bond yields rose after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the government was looking into issuing ultra-long debt of maturities in excess of 30 years. Greek government bond yields fell after Greece and its lenders reached a long-awaited deal on reforms required to release further bailout funds. U.S. 30-year Treasury yield were 1 basis point higher at 3.02 percent, just below Monday's three-week high, after Mnuchin told Bloomberg issuing ultra-long bonds "can absolutely make sense". "Mnuchin's comments have at least stabilized the long end of the curve," said Lee Hardman, a currency economist with Japan's MUFG. "But the dollar is still on the defensive in the near term. The data from the U.S. has been coming in on the disappointing side and the Fed is likely to acknowledge that at this week's meeting." The yield on 10-year Greek government bonds fell 30 basis points to 6.18 percent, their lowest since October 2014, after the deal with its lenders, which followed half a year of talks. Oil prices rose as investors weighed rising production in Libya and elsewhere and expectations that the OPEC producers group and others will extend output curbs. Brent crude last traded 29 cents higher at $51.81. Companies due to report earnings include Apple, Pfizer, Merck and Aetna. Wards total vehicle sales may rise. Global Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,384.75 MXAP up 0.4% to 150.04 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 490.83 Nikkei up 0.7% to 19,445.70 Topix up 0.7% to 1,550.30 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 24,696.13 Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,143.71 Sensex up 0.02% to 29,924.82 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,950.37 Kospi up 0.7% to 2,219.67 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 387.44 German 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 0.329% Euro up 0.2% to 1.0915 per US$ Brent Futures up 0.6% to $51.81/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 1.987% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.67% Brent Futures up 0.6% to $51.81/bbl Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,255.34 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.02% to 99.05 Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities trade modestly higher with BP earnings helping to lift the FTSE 100 GBP finds support after surprise rise in UK Mfg. PMI Looking ahead, highlights include US vehicle sales data Top Overnight News From Bloomberg Trump Says He’d Meet North Korea’s Kim If Conditions Right Trump Weighs Breaking Up Wall Street Banks, Raising Gas Tax Barclays Falls for Third Day as Trump Suggests Bank Breakup IAC to Buy Angie’s List in Deal Valued at Over $500 Million Soros Says It’s ‘Disappointed’ by Terms of Proposed KWE Deal Euro-Area Manufacturing Expands at Fastest Pace in Six Years Monsanto Abandons Deal With Deere as Merger With Bayer Looms Boeing Had 15 Orders Incl. 13 for 737s in Week Ended April 30 McDonald’s Japan Says ‘Gran’ Burger, McFlurry Drove April Sales Discovery, ProSiebenSat.1 Start Joint German Streaming Service Infosys Plans to Hire 10,000 American Workers Over Next 2 Years AstraZeneca Approval Unlikely a Big Commercial Opportunity: JPM Liberty Interactive Buying HSN May Lead to 10% Accretion: BofAML Asian equities traded mixed as the majority of the region returned from public holiday and digested the weaker than expected Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was led lower by miners and financials after gold prices declined and following earnings from Big 4 bank ANZ Bank which missed expectations despite showing H1 cash earnings rose 23%. Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) traded positive on a weaker currency, while Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) and Hang Seng (+0.3%) were mixed with the mainland bourse pressured after the PBoC refrained from open market operations and as participants mulled over the latest PMI data in which the Official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs missed estimates to print 6-month and 7-month lows, respectively. 10yr JGBs traded flat with slightly weaker demand seen in today's enhanced-liquidity auction for 2yr, 5yr, 10yr and 20yr JGBs, while the curve was mixed with mild underperformance seen in the long-end. RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50% vs. Exp. 1.50% (Prey. 1.50%), while it reiterated that unchanged policy is consistent with sustainable growth and achieving inflation target. RBA also commented that higher commodity prices give significant support to Australia's national income and that a broad-based pick up was seen globally since last year. Top Asian News China’s $11 Trillion Economy and Markets Are in a Tug of War DBS Profit Beats Forecasts, Helped by Wealth-Management Fees Pimco Warns of Credit Risks as Asia Bond Sales at Record Guangzhou R&F Halted Pending 1Q Results Release Hong Kong Stocks Fluctuate; Belle Surges While Developers Drop India’s Sensex Holds Close to Record; Reliance, Tata Motors Fall Asia’s FX Laggards Turn Leaders of Pack as Ringgit Rebounds Modi Adviser Says Bad Bank Not Needed to Solve Loan Mess Japan Stocks Rise to 6-Week High as Yen Weakens Before Holiday RBA Statement’s Unwritten Line: Baton Handed to Fiscal Stimulus European equities have started the holiday-shortened week on the front-foot in the wake of the largely positive sentiment seen on Wall Street yesterday. More specifically, the FTSE 100 (+0.5%) outperforms its peers as a positive earnings update from BP (+1.4%) props up energy names across the continent with gains otherwise relatively broad-based in what has otherwise been a relatively light morning for stock specific newsflow. Fixed income markets trade modestly lower alongside some of the upside seen in European bourses with prices also relatively unreactive to the latest slew of largely in-line core Eurozone manufacturing PMIs. More specifically, French paper has been relatively steady as Macron continues to maintain his lead over Le Pen ahead of tomorrow's televised debate and Sunday's election results. Elsewhere, peripheral focus has been on Greece with a notable decline in yields after the Greek government has managed to strike a deal with creditors regarding austerity measures. Top European News Greek Debt-Relief Talks Move Closer After Late-Night Athens Deal May Says Juncker Clash Shows Brexit Talks Will ‘Not Be Easy’ Italian Joblessness Unexpectedly Increases as More Seek Work U.K. Manufacturing Growth Surges to Fastest in Three Years Soros Says It’s ‘Disappointed’ by Terms of Proposed KWE Deal Macron Tells Le Pen, Melenchon Voters He Hears Their Anger A $1 Trillion Asset Management Boom Is a Guide to Nordic Banking In currencies, the yen slid 0.3 percent to 112.21 per dollar, the lowest since March 21, following a 0.3 percent slide on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.0917, while the British pound was little changed. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat. The early price action in London this morning favoured the USD despite some data misses reported in yesterday's holiday thinned markets. USD personal income and spending and ISM manufacturing PMIs all came in softer than expected, buy we saw the greenback on the front foot against a selection of currencies. USD/JPY was standout as we broke above 112.00, with some suggesting this was partly in the short term plug in the US finding gap, though we prefer the correlation to equities. UST yields still looking buoyed to maintain support through the figure, but upside momentum is clearly lacking. Gains also seen against the CAD and GBP, but Oil prices have recovered modestly to fend off a move to 1.3700 for now, but the spot rate remains poised for another push higher. GBP was trading on the backfoot as all things Brexit are back at the fore. Cable had slipped below 1.2880 from the mid-upper 1.2900's seen late last week, but was given a boost this morning from the much better than expected UK manufacturing PMIs — at 57.3. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4 percent to $49.04, erasing earlier losses. Oil fell 1 percent Monday as Libyan output surged, more rigs were added in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia cut prices to Asian customers. Oil prices initially took another dip, and any support coming in for WTI and Brent at predominantly based on hopes of the production cut agreement being extended into H2. Plenty of talk that there is strong intent, but we are unlikely to see a notable pick up until this is rubber stamped. Copper prices have risen on fresh strikes in Indonesia, with supply concerns outweighing demand issues emanating from the softer China PMIs. Nickel and Zinc keeping up with Copper this morning. Gold will likely find some support as the market looks to the French election this weekend, but little negative impact on the EUR as Le Pen softens her tone on the single unit. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll get the final April manufacturing PMI readings along with a first look at the data for the UK and the periphery. We’ll also get the Euro area wide unemployment rate for March. The only data due out in the US this evening is vehicle sales data for April. Away from the data the ECB’s Nouy is set to speak at two separate events today while Nowotny also speaks this evening. Germany’s Merkel is also due to meet Russia’s Putin which might be worth keeping an eye on. On the earnings front we’ve got 43 S&P 500 companies reporting including Merck, Pfizer (both at the open) and Apple (after the close). US Event Calendar Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.1m, prior 16.5m Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.3m, prior 13m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Perhaps the highlight of a light US session last night was the VIX closing at the lowest level since February 16th 2007, a span of nearly 123 months. The index closed at 10.11 which compares to the close on Friday of 10.82. It did actually touch an intraday low of 9.90 yesterday which is only the second time this year that the index has fallen below 10.00 (it touched 9.97 intraday in early February). To put yesterday’s closing level in context, in the 6871 business days since the inception of the VIX (going back to 1990) we have only ever seen the index close lower than last night’s level on 14 occasions. Quite impressive stats. Given the holidays around the globe it won’t come as a surprise to hear then that price action in US equities wasn’t hugely exciting yesterday. The S&P 500 (+0.17%) and Dow (-0.13%) both faded into the close despite the Nasdaq (+0.73%) notching up a new record high. Initially sentiment was boosted by that news of a tentative agreement by Congress on a near $1.2tn spending bill, which is likely to be voted on in the coming days. In fact politics largely dominated yesterday’s session with banks under the spotlight after President Trump said in an interview with Bloomberg News that he is actively considering a breakup of Wall Street Banks and specifically calling for a “21st century” version of the 1933 Glass-Steagall law. Any weakness in bank stocks was short lived however with JP Morgan (+0.10%), Morgan Stanley (+0.88%) and Bank of America (+1.24%) all finishing up. In addition to the bank comments, Trump also added that he is open to increasing the US gasoline tax rate with additional revenues to be used to fund infrastructure development. Away from this Treasury yields crept higher as the session progressed with the curve steepening too. 10y yields finished the day up 3.8bps at 2.319% while 30y yields rose a little over 5bps to close back above 3.000% again. Much of that move reflected comments from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who said that ultralong bond issuance “could absolutely make sense”. He added that the Treasury currently “have a working group looking at it”. Meanwhile, following the soft Q1 GDP print last week the Atlanta Fed released their initial first estimate of Q2 growth which they have pegged at 4.3%. Staying with the macro, the main focus of the data yesterday was the ISM manufacturing reading which came in at a slightly disappointing 54.8 for April (vs. 56.5 expected) from 57.2 in March. At face value the index still remains firmly in expansion territory and points to much stronger growth than what the initial Q1 real GDP figures suggest. However there were some disappointing aspects within the details of the report. Ahead of payrolls this week the employment component tumbled 6.9pts to 52.0 which is essentially the biggest one-month decline since July 2011 when there were concerns about the US debt ceiling. The new orders component was soft too, falling 7.0pts to 57.5, albeit still at an elevated level. There was however some improvement seen in components for production and exports. In terms of other data, the final manufacturing PMI for April was confirmed at 52.8 which was unchanged relative to the flash reading. Away from that personal spending in March came in flat after consensus was for a +0.2% mom rise. The February reading was also revised down a tenth while personal income was also below market (+0.2% mom vs. +0.3% expected). Meanwhile, as expected the PCE deflator (-0.2% mom) fell while the PCE core (-0.1% mom) was also down and in line with expectations. That has pushed the YoY rate down two-tenths to +1.6%. This morning in Asia and with the exception of China we’ve seen most major bourses advance in early trading. The Nikkei (+0.70%), Hang Seng (+0.27%) and Kospi (+0.84%) are all up with the latter briefly edging above its all time record close at one stage. In China the Shanghai Comp (-0.35%) is in the red perhaps in response to a disappointing run of data in recent days. After the official PMIs were confirmed as weakening in April over the weekend this morning we saw the Caixin manufacturing PMI come in at 50.3 for April which is both down from 51.2 the month prior and also well below expectations for 51.3. Meanwhile in Australia the Aussie Dollar (+0.34%) is firmer after the RBA left rates on hold as expected. Moving on. Today brings the latest monthly ECB purchasing data where hopefully we'll get a much better guide to how the ECB is splitting their taper between corporate and government bonds. April was full of holidays which distorted the weekly data but viewed over the month we should get some guidance. Given the bank holidays yesterday in Europe we thought it would be worth quickly recapping some of the main news from the weekend which we touched on in yesterday’s EMR. In Italy former PM Renzi won the Democratic Party Primary with over 70% of votes which will likely be seen as a strong mandate ahead of next year’s general election. In France recent polls still point to a 20pp lead for Macron over Le Pen ahead of this weekend’s second round election. Finally the European Council released the guidelines intended to govern the EU’s Brexit negotiations with the UK after they were unanimously backed in Brussels. EU President Tusk noted that the unanimous support gives the EU a “strong political mandate for negotiations”. We also had a wrap up of what has been a decent earnings season so far on both sides of the pond. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll get the final April manufacturing PMI readings along with a first look at the data for the UK and the periphery. We’ll also get the Euro area wide unemployment rate for March. The only data due out in the US this evening is vehicle sales data for April. Away from the data the ECB’s Nouy is set to speak at two separate events today while Nowotny also speaks this evening. Germany’s Merkel is also due to meet Russia’s Putin which might be worth keeping an eye on. On the earnings front we’ve got 43 S&P 500 companies reporting including Merck, Pfizer (both at the open) and Apple (after the close). In terms of the remainder of this week, kicking things off tomorrow will be Germany where the April unemployment numbers are due to be released. Shortly after that we’ll get Euro area PPI for March and then the advanced Q1 GDP report for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the ADP employment change report in April and the final April PMIs and ISM non-manufacturing reading. In the evening on Wednesday all eyes then turn over to the Fed meeting. In Asia on Thursday the early data is out of China with the remaining April Caixin PMIs. In Europe we’ll also get the remaining April services and composite PMIs as well as Euro area retail sales in March and UK money and credit aggregates data. In the US on Thursday the data includes initial jobless claims, Q1 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, March trade balance, March factory orders and the final revisions to March durable and capital goods orders. With little of note in Europe on Friday the main focus will be on the US where we’ll get the April employment report including nonfarm payrolls. Away from the data, this week’s Fedspeak is reserved for Friday when we’ll hear separately from Fischer, Williams and Yellen, as well as a panel debate with Rosengren, Evans and Bullard. Over at the ECB, in the remainder of this week we are due to hear from Lautenschlaeger, Praet, Draghi and Mersch on Thursday. Other important events this week include Wednesday’s live televised debate between French presidential candidates Macron and Le Pen, Wednesday’s meeting between President Trump and Palestinian Authority President Abbas and UK local elections on Thursday. Finally, on the earnings front a total of 131 S&P 500 companies report this week and 85 Stoxx 600 companies report. Amongst those still to report from tomorrow are BNP Paribas, Facebook, Tesla, Time Warner, HSBC, BMW, Shell and VW.
Сегодня Резервный банк Австралии оставил денежно- кредитную политику без изменений. По мнению аналитиков AMP Capital РБА не видит необходимости снижать процентную ставку, так как экономика Австралии в последнее время демонстрирует рост, а инфляция опять вернулась в целевой диапазон центробанка, который составляет 2-3%. "Также пока мало поводов и для повышения ставки: уровень безработицы по-прежнему довольно высок, зарплаты растут, но медленными темпами, а австралийский доллар все еще слишком силен" - говорят в AMP Capital. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Эксперты из Aberdeen Asset Management заявили, что сегодня ЦБ Австралии придерживался более оптимистичной риторики. Аналитики считают, что в будущем Резервный банк Австралии будет демонстрировать склонность к ужесточению денежно-кредитной политики, так как текущий низкий уровень ключевой процентной ставки вызывает "перегрев" рынка жилья в крупных австралийских городах, таких как Сидней. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam