The Australian economy has contracted for the first time in the last five year.
AUSTRALIA’S “spring-selling” real estate season is seeing a defiant return of Chinese buyers, undaunted by lending restrictions aimed at curbing their interest in the country’s sky-rocketing housing market. Financiers
Longest Winning Streak For Global Stocks Since September On Monte Paschi Bailout Hopes, ECB Optimism
Global stocks extended the longest winning streak since September, with Asia up 0.8% and Europe rising 0.7% while bonds and credit markets strengthened amid hopes that the European Central Bank will prolong quantitative easing, while optimism an Italian bailout of Monte Paschi will prevent European bank contagion, has pushed European financial stocks higher. US equity futures were little changed. A note from Goldman's David Kostin overnight perhaps summarized it best: "Large-cap fund managers embrace Hope over Fear." For now hope is certainly in the driver's seat, leading European equities higher for a third day, with the Bloomberg World Banks Index trading at the highest level in more than a year. Bonds rose across the euro area, with the yield on the benchmark German bund falling from the highest in almost three weeks, while perceived investment-grade credit risk fell for a seventh day, the longest run since May. The pound fell after an unexpected decline in manufacturing output. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.7% as of 10:46 a.m. in London as mining companies and banks rallied. Credit Suisse AG gained 8 percent, while Banca Monte Paschi rose 7.1 percent after La Stampa reported Italy will ask for a 15 billion euro ESM loan for the lender, among other banks. Investors' concerns were that a defeat for Renzi in a referendum on constitutional reforms could further undermine faith in the European Union - following Britain's decision to quit the bloc - as well as confidence in the euro currency. Market reaction to Renzi's defeat and his resignations was relatively muted, partly as a consequence of a pledge by the ECB to buy Italian government debt if markets became unsettled. "Despite the fact that the probability of early elections has risen, the market is focusing on the banking sector and the fact the government seems to be showing more urgency in dealing with that problem," Mizuho strategist Antoine Bouvet said. "People had gone into the referendum with a very pessimistic view and I think the last five years have taught us that, as far as the euro is concerned, political issues often don't have a lasting impact," DZ Bank currency analyst Sonja Marten said. Ahead of tomorrow's ECB announcement (previewed here), investors are positioned for an extension of monthly asset purchases of 80 billion euros ($86 billion) past March even as uncertainty lingers that Draghi may inject an element of hawkishness and hint at tapering or even ending QE at some point in the future. With overnight volatility on the euro at the highest since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in June, traders are hedging bets that ECB President Mario Draghi will carry on with accommodative policies. Last year he defied weeks of anticipation for more support with underwhelming stimulus that sent bond yields and the euro surging. “The base expectation is that we are going to get an extension of the stimulus program by another six to nine months,” said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Broad sentiment is starting to turn around -- we are getting some repositioning for a better 2017 in terms of growth.” Japan’s Topix index gained 0.9% in Tokyo as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed after the measure posted a 0.3% advance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 percent to close at another record. Brent and WTI rose after the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin personally agreed to output cuts with the nation’s oil companies. Brent above $54/bbl, WTI above $51/bbl. “The headlines that Putin personally agreed to the oil output cut sent prices higher,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “This adds to the pressure on OPEC to deliver their own cuts.” “The market is taking that at face value and looking for at least half of the 600k b/d non-OPEC cut to be assured.” The one-minute trading volume in WTI hit day-high >1,900 lots at 9:17am London time, shortly after Russia headlines. One of the biggest movers in the currency markets was the Australian dollar, down 0.4 percent after data showed the Australian economy shrank by 0.5 percent, its biggest contraction since 2008, in the third quarter. Australian stocks, however, closed 0.9 percent higher in anticipation of more fiscal and monetary stimulus. While rate futures imply scant chance of a Reserve Bank interest rate cut in the coming months, prospects of a hike vanished. China's foreign exchange reserves fell by more than expected last month to $3.05 trillion, their lowest since 2011, the central bank said. The yuan currency last stood at 6.8850 to the dollar compared to a mid-point of 6.8808 set by the central bank. The currency is down 5 percent so far this year. In rates, Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points to 0.34 percent, after climbing to 0.38 percent, the highest since Nov. 14. The government plans to sell 3 billion euros of 2018 securities. Italian sovereign debt securities due in a decade advanced for a second day, almost erasing losses suffered in the aftermath of Sunday’s referendum. The nation’s 10-year bond yield fell four basis points to 1.91 percent, adding to a four-basis point drop from Tuesday. Portugal’s 10-year bond yield reached the lowest level since Nov. 15. Treasury 10-year note yields were little changed at 2.37 percent. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps on investment-grade companies dropped one basis point to 74 basis points, the lowest since Nov. 9. A gauge of swaps on junk-rated companies fell to a three-month low. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up less than 0.1% to 2211 Stoxx 600 up 0.7% to 347 FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 6742 DAX up 0.1% to 10698 German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.34% Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.92% Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.5% S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 389.6 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 136 Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 18361 Hang Seng up 0.8% to 22675 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3200 S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5429 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.38% Dollar Indexunchanged at 100.09 WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $51.59 Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $54.91 Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,172 Silver spot up 0.4% to $16.82 Global Headlines Credit Suisse Steps Up Cost Cuts as Revenue Eludes CEO Thiam: Lowers target for operating costs by 1 billion francs Linde Chairman Said to Pitch Praxair Merger Plan to Board: Jobs in Germany said part of deliberations about Praxair plan JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole Fined $521 Million Over Euribor: Banks fined by the European Commission for rigging the Euribor benchmark Shell and Total Said to Sign Initial Oil Deals With Iran: Deals for S. Azadegan, Yadavaran, Kish fields, oil official says Lilly Threatens Sanofi’s Dominance in Insulin With Knockoff Drug: Novo sees U.S. drugmaker as its ‘most formidable’ rival ahead Blackstone to Buy Solvay’s Acetow Business for $1.1 Billion: Buyout firm agreed to pay about seven times earnings for a business supplying materials for cigarette filters Western Digital in Samsung License Deal, Boosts 2Q Forecast: CFO Mark Long spoke in analyst day presentation FirstEnergy Seeks to Sell $885 Million Worth of Power Plants: AE Supply unit looking to sell gas-fired, hydro power plants Exxon Sees 175 Million Ton LNG Shortage by 2030 Without Spending: Financing challenges seen for new LNG developments Pfizer, Flynn Fined Record $113 Million Over Epilepsy Drug: U.K. CMA imposes record fines for abusing dominant position Asian stocks markets traded mostly higher following a positive lead from Wall St where strength in financials and telecoms underpinned sentiment and resulted in the Dow posting a second consecutive record close. ASX 200 (+0.9%) outperformed despite a poor GDP release as the recent slew of weak data keeps prospects of future easing alive, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was also higher led by SoftBank shares after reports it is to invest USD 50bIn in the US and create 50,000 US jobs. Markets in China conformed to the tone, although upside in the Shanghai Comp (+0.7%) was capped after the PBoC conducted a poor liquidity operation for the third consecutive day, while Jakarta stock markets were negative after Indonesia was hit by a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. 10yr JGBs traded with marginal gains despite the mostly heightened risk appetite in the region, as the BoJ were present in the market for over JPY 1.3trl under its bond buying program, while participants also digested unwaveringly dovish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata. PBoC injected CNY 30bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set the mid-point at 6.8808 (Prey. 6.8575). BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata stated that the BoJ will continue to expand monetary base, while he also added that they will not hesitate to take further measures if required and that yield control can only be achieved by large JGB buying by the central bank. Asian Top News Hong Kong Faces Housing Risks as Fed Tightening Looms, IMF Says: Stretched property valuations mean Hong Kong’s economy is vulnerable if interest rates rise faster than expected Investors Lose 99% as Hong Kong Rights Offerings Go Badly Wrong: Repeat rights issuers under scrutiny as bourse link expands RBA Will Look Through Australia’s Economic Shocker, Traders Bet: Swaps still see more than 75% chance RBA on hold through 2017 Chinese Regulators Fined Medtronic $17 Million for Price- Fixing: Penalties for fixing prices with dealers extending to 2014 Jho Low Family Digs in to Stop 1MDB Asset Seizure by U.S.: Relatives seek to replace trustees who refused to fight U.S. Soros Alumnus Shiozumi Says Bears on Abenomics Have It All Wrong: Shiozumi, T. Rowe Price’s Ciganer see Japan stock rally European stocks trade in positive territory this morning (Euro Stox: +1.2%) as Santa gives an early Christmas present to Banca Monte Paschi (+7.9%) in the form of source reports of the state taking a controlling stake in the Co. for EUR 2bIn as soon as this weekend. As such, the Italian bellwether lifted sentiment for financials across the continent. Material names were also among the best performers, while energy names outperformed amid positive reports suggesting Russia could be on board with the OPEC production cuts. Elsewhere, fixed income markets remain relatively muted, with the German 10Y continuing to hover just above the 160 level and trading in a tight range throughout the morning. European Top News • Ahold Delhaize Plans $1.1 Billion Buyback as Cash Piles Up: Europe’s top retailer forecasts 23% increase in free cash flow• PostNL Rejects New Bpost Takeover Bid on Governance Concerns: Belgian state’s role prompted Dutch authorities’ objections• U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Drops Most in Eight Months: Total production falls, led by oil and gas extraction In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed. The pound dropped 0.6 percent to $1.2597 after industrial production in October fell 1.3 percent, driven by a slide in oil and gas extraction. The euro was little changed at $1.0726 after posting a 0.4 percent drop on Tuesday. Overnight volatility in the common currency versus its U.S. counterpart jumped to 23 percent, the most since June 23, based on closing prices. The Australian dollar traded as low as 74.17 U.S. cents before paring its drop to 0.1% after the statistics bureau said third-quarter gross domestic product decreased 0.5 percent from the prior quarter, the first contraction since 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In commodities, oil traded near $51 a barrel amid speculation a production boost from U.S. shale producers will counter the first output cuts from OPEC in eight years. Copper gained 0.6%, recouping an earlier decline. Steel rebar in China climbed with iron ore to the highest in more than two years, as reports of a crackdown on illegal plants spurred speculation that the government is stepping up supply-side reforms. Spot gold was little changed at $1,171.62 an ounce. Looking at the day ahead, we got the October industrial and manufacturing production reports for the UK, which both missed sharply printing -1.1% and -0.4% YoY, on expectations of a 0.5% and 0.2% rebound respectively. It’s fairly quiet in the US where we'll get the October JOLTS job openings report along with the October consumer credit print. China released November foreign reserves which showed a surprisingly steep drop of $70 billion, the biggest since January. We’ll also get central bank decisions today from the Reserve Bank of India, which unexpectedly kept rates unchanged even as it warned the economy would slow down. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec. 2 (prior -9.4%) 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, Oct. est. 5.50m (prior 5.486m) 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories 3pm: Consumer Credit, Oct., est. $18.650b (prior $19.292b) DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Although there is little uncertainty in the alpine weather forecast this morning, I must admit to being quite confused by financial markets this week. In our 2017 credit outlook we suggested that we like European financial over non-financial credit as the outlook has changed markedly since the sector's nadir in late summer where it priced in almost permanent negative yields and flat yield curves. Rising yields and a steeper yield curve partly due to Kuroda's new policy framework helped. President-elect Trump has since given this trade a further boost with additional hopes on easier regulation ahead. However we've been struggling with reconciling our optimistic view with our thoughts that a 'no' was likely in the Italian referendum and a period of turbulence possible for the sector given the country's banking sector problems. We thought it would be more difficult to solve them quickly and safely with a 'no'. However we decided to ride out this expected volatility and take any near-term stresses and losses that this would entail. Given yesterday's price action we needn't have even bothered getting stressed as European financials saw a remarkable day in spite of (or perhaps strangely because of) the speculation of imminent government intervention in the sector that might be necessary after the 'no' vote. Indeed the Stoxx 600 Banks index rallied to the tune of +5.61% yesterday for its biggest one-day gain since April. The main driver was that remarkable rebound for Italian Banks. Unicredit (+12.81%), Mediobanca (+9.94%), Unione di Banche Italiane (+9.70%), Banco Popolare di Milano (+9.03%), and Intesa Sanpaolo (+8.16%) all more than wiping out the previous day losses. With those moves the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks index rallied +8.97% and had its best day since July while the FTSE MIB closed up +4.15%. That compares to gains of +0.97% for the Stoxx 600 and +0.34% for the S&P 500. It was much the same in credit markets. While the iTraxx Main index tightened an impressive 4bps, more eye catching were the moves for the iTraxx Senior and Sub Financials indices which ended the day 7bps and 7.5bps tighter respectively. Within the Sub-Fins constituents, spreads for Unicredit, Generali, Intesa and Mediobanca were 18bps, 16bps, 15bps and 7bps tighter respectively. There was a similar outperformance for BTP’s too where 10y yields ended the day just over 4bps lower at 1.940% which compared to a move of 4bps higher for 10y Bund yields. US Treasury yields on the other hand were little changed around 2.389%. Although the above suits our sector view I'm still scratching my head this morning explaining the strength of the move given the week's news. All help very welcome with aggressively short covering perhaps a big catalyst. For now then the political focus in Italy turns over to the elections and as DB’s Marco Stringa summarised yesterday in his report, the key question is not ‘when’ Italy goes to elections but ‘how’. In other words which electoral law. Since the weekend this has now become a focal point for investors and yesterday’s report from Marco has helped to summarise some of the key Q&A’s on the more specific details of the process. Away from all things Italy related there was an important development to note on the Brexit front last night. Yesterday PM May accepted a Labour Party motion which will be debated in the House of Commons today, calling on the government to publish its plans for the leaving the EU prior to triggering Article 50. According to the BBC as many as 40 Tories were said to be prepared to support the Labour Party in demanding more parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s plans. One to watch. To the latest in Asia now where for the most part bourses in Asia have strengthened and so following the generally positive sentiment over the last 24 hours. Indeed when will we start to hear talk of a Santa Claus rally? The Nikkei (+0.54%), Hang Seng (+0.35%), Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) and ASX (+0.87%) in particular are all firmer although the Kospi (-0.10%) is a touch weaker. Those moves have come despite WTI Oil retreating a further -0.65% this morning which follows the -1.66% decline yesterday and the first down day since the OPEC meeting last week. Meanwhile in FX markets the Aussie Dollar has weakened close to half a percent following a much weaker than expected Q3 GDP print (-0.5% qoq vs. -0.1% expected). In fact it was the first negative quarterly contraction since 2011 and the joint worst since 2008. Moving on. Just as you might have expected primary issuance to slow down into year end, it was interesting to note the relatively busy day for issuance in the HY energy space yesterday. Indeed Chesapeake, Matador Resources, Rowan Companies and Parsley Energy priced deals after Cheniere Energy had priced a decent sized deal on Monday. The timing follows a decent rally in spreads following the OPEC meeting. Indeed based on DB pricing to the close on Monday, cash spreads for US HY energy are 32bps tighter at 510bps since OPEC. In fact that is now the tightest spread since November 2014 after spreads peaked above 1900bps back in February. Elsewhere, with regards to the data yesterday, in the US the trade deficit was reported as widening to $42.6bn in October from $36.2bn in the month prior. That was as a result of a -1.8% mom drop in exports while imports were reported as rising +1.3% mom. Meanwhile factory orders rose a slightly above market +2.7% mom in October (vs. +2.6% expected) while durable goods orders were revised down to a still strong +4.6% mom from +4.8% in the initial flash estimate. Elsewhere nonfarm productivity was confirmed at +3.1% qoq in Q3 while unit labour costs were revised up to +0.7% qoq from +0.3%. Finally the IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading for December was reported as rising 3.4pts in December to 54.8. That’s actually the highest reading since November 2006. The Atlanta Fed did downgrade their Q4 GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.9% yesterday although that reflected the employment and auto sales data last week. As far as the data was concerned in Europe, Q3 GDP growth for the Euro area was confirmed at +0.3% qoq although the annual rate was revised up by one tenth to +1.7% yoy which left it unchanged versus Q2. The most eye catching print in Europe yesterday was the October factory orders reading in Germany where orders were reported as rising a bumper +4.9% mom (vs. +0.6% expected) and so helping to raise the YoY rate to +6.3% from +2.9%. That was the largest monthly jump since July 2014 although our European economists did warn that a combination of several factors likely overstates the underlying improvement. This includes a very large workday adjustment, the impact of the Paris autoshow during the month, and a post Brexit recovery. In terms of the day ahead, this morning in Europe the early data comes from Germany where the October industrial production data is due (expected to rise +0.8% mom). Shortly after we’ll get the October trade data out of France before we then get the Halifax house price index data for the UK for last month. We’ll then get the October industrial and manufacturing production reports for the UK where both are expected to have risen +0.2% mom. It’s fairly quiet in the US this afternoon. We’ll get the October JOLTS job openings report along with the October consumer credit print. China is also due to release November foreign reserves data at some stage today. We’ll also get central bank decisions today from the Reserve Bank of India (expected to cut by 25bps) and Bank of Canada (expected to hold).
Как и ожидалось, на заседании 6 декабря Комитет по кредитно-денежной политике Резервного Банка Австралии оставил основную процентную ставку без изменений на уровне 1,50%. Вероятно некоторое замедление темпов роста экономике в конце года, за которым последует подъем, сказал после заседания глава РБА Филип Лоуи. Показатели рынка труда продолжают демонстрировать относительно смешанную картину. Частичная занятость сильно выросла, а рост занятости в целом замедлился. Опережающие индикаторы указывают на продолжение роста занятости в краткосрочном периоде. Инфляция остается достаточно низкой и, учитывая продолжающийся сдержанный рост затрат на оплату труда, будет оставаться на этом уровне некоторое время. Низкие процентные ставки, низкий курс австралийского доллара и наличие возможности у финансовых учреждений выдавать кредиты на оправданные цели способствуют осуществлению необходимых корректировок в экономике, хотя ситуация может осложниться при повышении обменного курса. С учетом имеющейся информации, а также после смягчения кредитно-денежной политики ранее в этом году, сохранение основной процентной ставки на данном заседании соответствует целям по обеспечению устойчивого роста экономики и достижению целевого ориентира по инфляции в долгосрочной перспективе. Источник: FxTeam
EUR/AUD Стратегия совершения сделкиНаправление сделкиПродажаВход (цена открытия)1,4370Цель (цена закрытия)1,4305Stop Loss1,4415Горизонтдо 19:00 мск 08.12.2016Фундаментальные основанияПара EUR/AUD может продолжить падение. Многое будет зависеть от поступающей информации. Сегодня Резервный Банк Австралии принял решение сохранить ставку на уровне 1,5%. В целом, это можно воспринимать как сигнал того, что в целом регулятор пока не видит достаточно угроз для экономики, чтобы проводить смягчение монетарной политики. Если еще и завтра данные по ВВП за 3 квартал выйдут не ниже 3,3% (что будет соответствовать росту во 2 квартале), оззи получит дополнительный повод для роста.Что касается евро, то у него причин для слабости больше. Во-первых, это итоги референдума в Италии. Страна стоит на пороге большой политической неопределенности. Во-вторых, предстоящее 8 декабря заседание ЕЦБ. Со стороны европейского регулятора не исключают мер дополнительного стимулирования, что вряд ли пойдет на пользу евро. Технические основания В районе уровня 1,4370 цены сформировали поддержку. Если этот уровень будет преодолен, активность продавцов может усилиться, что приведет к ускорению снижения пары. Тем более, что уровень совпадает с 50-интервальной скользящей средней.Рекомендации по управлению капиталом в сделке При депозите $500 необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на продажу пары EUR/AUD со следующими параметрами:В случае, если ваш депозит отличается в большую сторону от 500$, необходимо пропорционально увеличить размер сделки в Libertex. Мультипликатор при этом остается неизменным.В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток по сделке не составит более 5% от размера Вашего депозита. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата. *В случае, если в течение указанного периода ордер открылся, но не были достигнуты цель take-profit или stop-loss, рекомендуем закрыть позицию по рынку в 19.00 мск в последний торговый день срока действия сигнала. Открывать позицию не позднее 08.12.2016 10:00 мск. Источник: ГК Forex Club: https://www.fxclub.org/markets-data/reviews/euraud-ievro-vyghliadit-slabieie-ozzi/
EUR/AUD Стратегия совершения сделкиНаправление сделкиПродажаВход (цена открытия)1,4370Цель (цена закрытия)1,4305Stop Loss1,4415Горизонтдо 19:00 мск 08.12.2016Фундаментальные основанияПара EUR/AUD может продолжить падение. Многое будет зависеть от поступающей информации. Сегодня Резервный Банк Австралии принял решение сохранить ставку на уровне 1,5%. В целом, это можно воспринимать как сигнал того, что в целом регулятор пока не видит достаточно угроз для экономики, чтобы проводить смягчение монетарной политики. Если еще и завтра данные по ВВП за 3 квартал выйдут не ниже 3,3% (что будет соответствовать росту во 2 квартале), оззи получит дополнительный повод для роста.Что касается евро, то у него причин для слабости больше. Во-первых, это итоги референдума в Италии. Страна стоит на пороге большой политической неопределенности. Во-вторых, предстоящее 8 декабря заседание ЕЦБ. Со стороны европейского регулятора не исключают мер дополнительного стимулирования, что вряд ли пойдет на пользу евро. Технические основания В районе уровня 1,4370 цены сформировали поддержку. Если этот уровень будет преодолен, активность продавцов может усилиться, что приведет к ускорению снижения пары. Тем более, что уровень совпадает с 50-интервальной скользящей средней.Рекомендации по управлению капиталом в сделке При депозите $500 необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на продажу пары EUR/AUD со следующими параметрами:В случае, если ваш депозит отличается в большую сторону от 500$, необходимо пропорционально увеличить размер сделки в Libertex. Мультипликатор при этом остается неизменным.В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток по сделке не составит более 5% от размера Вашего депозита. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата. *В случае, если в течение указанного периода ордер открылся, но не были достигнуты цель take-profit или stop-loss, рекомендуем закрыть позицию по рынку в 19.00 мск в последний торговый день срока действия сигнала. Открывать позицию не позднее 08.12.2016 10:00 мск. евро, оззи, форекс клуб, РБА, экономика EURAUD
В середине декабря в центре внимания будут заседания центральных банков развитых стран. В последние недели в мире на фоне роста цен на нефть (и в некоторой степени, президентства Трампа) в мире выросли инфляционные ожидания, так что риторика регуляторов может несколько измениться. Сегодня старт сезону заседаний дал Резервный Банк Австралии, ожидаемо оставивший ставку на уровне 1,5%. На этой неделе также пройдут заседания Банка Канады (7 декабря), Банка Швейцарии и ЕЦБ (8 декабря). От первых двух сюрпризов не ожидается, так что основной фокус – на ЕЦБ, находящийся сейчас в непростой ситуации. Прошедший в воскресенье референдум в Италии, по итогам которого правительство уйдёт в отставку, привёл к тому, что доходности 10-летних итальянских облигаций выросли до 2 , акции банков продолжают находится под давлением. На этом фоне, возможно, ЕЦБ расширит квоту на покупку итальянских облигаций. В то же время, в текущий ситуации европейский регулятор вряд ли решится на более активные действия - изменение ставки или расширение объёма программы выкупа активов. Наконец, 13-14 декабря пройдёт заседание ФРС США. Эксперты и рынки на 99% уверены, что по его итогам ключевая ставка будет поднята на 0,25%. Более важны комментарии Джаннет Йеллен о состоянии экономики и том, каких темпов подъёма ставки ожидать в дальнейшем. На текущий момент рынки закладывают вероятность 45%, что следующее повышение ставки будет до июля 2017 года.
European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session. Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains, as doubts emerged about how OPEC will implement the first supply curbs in eight years. European bonds gained with stocks. The euro held firm on Tuesday, having seen a wild 3-cent swing in the wake of Italy's referendum, while the region's bond yields dipped in line with U.S. peers as oil saw its first fall for five days. Asian stocks saw their strongest day for 2 weeks overnight after Wall Street's Dow Jones index hit a record high, and Europe's main bourses struggled into positive territory as bumper German data helped settle an early wobble. As concerns about Italy subsided for the time being, Italian bond yields were back below levels seen before Sunday's referendum defeat for the government, while the euro held at $1.0767 having bounced strongly from as low as $1.0505 on Monday, two days ahead of an ECB decision in which Mario Draghi is expected to extend QE by 6 months with little other adjustments. "The referendum result could put the ECB under pressure not to taper the asset purchase program but to extend it for six months beyond March (in its current form)," ING strategist Benjamin Schroeder said. European shares rose on news that German industrial orders soared at the fastest pace for more than two years, stoking hopes that Europe's largest economy is set for an acceleration in the coming months. Factories saw demand climb 4.9 percent on the month despite bulk orders being lower than usual, the German economy ministry said. That was the biggest increase since July 2014 and far above the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.6 percent rise. "The reading was very strong even without large-scale orders and that suggests it's more than just a flash in the pan," BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar said, noting that some firms might have brought orders forward. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3%, adding to its 0.6% advance from Monday. Italy’s FTSE MIB Index gained ground, up 1.3%, helped by gains of more than 3 percent each by UniCredit SpA and Mediobanca SpA. Stoxx 600 energy producers tracked declines in oil prices, which retreated from the highest close in 16 months. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped 0.9 percent. Financial shares in China weakened again, however, after the country's insurance regulator suspended an unlisted firm from selling some products a day after a warning about "barbaric" share acquisitions by asset managers. In emerging markets, Turkey, where the lira has slumped to record lows in recent weeks, saw a warning from the head of the central bank that the weakness could cause the bank to miss its inflation targets early next year. In Asia, gold nudged off a 10-month low. MSCI's broadest index for the region bounced 0.7 percent, its biggest daily rise since Nov. 22, as Korea climbed 1.4 percent and Japan rose 0.4 percent. The Australian dollar led declines among major economies, falling 0.5 percent to 74.38 U.S. cents, after the nation’s central bank central bank kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In an otherwise quiet session, where E-minis are currently unchanged before Tuesday’s release of factory and durable goods orders, which may confirm the U.S. economy is gaining strength and giving the Federal Reserve more reason to raise interest rates, and after the Dow Average swung back to gains Monday, increasing 0.2 percent to an all-time high, early trader focus was on crude. Ending a 4-day winning streak, oil prices slipped on Tuesday as crude output rose in virtually every major export region despite plans by OPEC and Russia to cut production, triggering fears that a fuel glut that has dogged markets for over two years might last well into 2017. Brent futures were trading at $54.64 per barrel at 0935 GMT, down 30 cents from Monday's close; WTI was at $51.39 a barrel, down 40 cents. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters said the boost from last week's decision by OPEC to cut crude production had faded and the cartel's promise had been undermined by data showing rising production from within its member countries and Russia. "Most of the position adjustments that the OPEC decision forced upon traders have now run their course and it leaves the market exposed to profit taking," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, citing surveys pointing to record production from OPEC during November. "What's troubling is that the rise is coming from African producers, two of which are exempt from cutting production," he said. "The meeting on Saturday between OPEC and non-OPEC producers will be crucial in order to maintain the bullish sentiment seen since last Wednesday." OPEC's oil output set another record high in November, rising to 34.19 million barrels per day (bpd) from 33.82 million bpd in October, according to a Reuters survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources. “It’s a headache for OPEC in terms of increase in production for Libya and Nigeria, definitely that’s a tricky part,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets. “A lot of buying went on following the OPEC decision and now it’s sort of taking it quietly.” In rates, Italy’s 10-year bond yield declined six basis points to 1.93 percent, almost erasing Monday’s increase of eight basis points. Yields on Portugal’s bonds with a similar due date decreased nine basis points to 3.61 percent, while Germany’s rose one basis point to 0.34 percent. Almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the ECB to announce on Thursday that its bond-buying program will be extended after March, and most foresee an extension of about six months at the current 80 billion euros ($85 billion) a month. Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 2.39%. * * * Bulletin Market Summary From RanSquawk European indices are mixed this morning with more news filtering through from the Italian banking sector A much calmer FX market today, but we continue to see Cable pushing higher, with a view to challenging the post Brexit lows seen just under 1.2800 Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and API Crude Oil Inventories Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2205.5 Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 342 FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 6742 DAX up 0.1% to 10698 German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.34% Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.92% Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.5% S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 389.6 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 136 Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 18361 Hang Seng up 0.8% to 22675 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3200 S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5429 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.38% Dollar Index unchanged at 100.09 WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $51.59 Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $54.91 Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,172 Silver spot up 0.4% to $16.82 Top Headlines: Sanofi Said to Mull Counterbid for Actelion Amid J&J Talks: French drugmaker said to work with advisers to weigh options Utilities Entitled to Damages for Germany’s Atomic Exit: German constitutional court issues ruling in landmark case Total, ExxonMobil, Cnooc, Pemex Win Mexico Deep-Water Blocks: Oil majors win blocks in Mexico’s first competitive deep-water oil auction Drugmaker Genfit Said to Explore Options Including a Sale: NASH treatment maker said in talks with other drug companies SoftBank’s Son Said to Plan Meeting With Trump in New York: Japanese tech company had sought to merge Sprint and T- Mobile Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Hike See Path Tied to Fiscal Policies: Fed presidents from New York, Chicago, St. Louis spoke Monday, indicating Fed is close to meeting inflation, job goals South Africa to Allow U.S. GM Corn Imports for First Time: Import clearance comes after worst drought since records began South Korea’s Park Is Willing to Resign in April, Party Says: Opposition lawmakers still pressing for Park’s impeachment United Technologies CEO Says Government Ties Affected Trump Deal: Regulatory, tax reform would benefit company, CEO Hayes says Lookinag at Asian markets, stocks carried on the momentum from Wall St where Dow posted fresh record highs amid strength in tech and financials, while contagion fears in Europe had also dissipated. ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded higher and was led higher by the materials and mining sectors, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was underpinned by financials. Chinese markets were mixed with Hang Seng (+0.8%) outperforming, while Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) lagged following a weak liquidity operation by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded lower amid the heightened risk appetite in the region, with demand also dampened following an enhanced liquidity auction for 20yr, 30yr and 40yr JGBs which drew a lower b/c and wider spreads. RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50% as unanimously expected and stated that maintaining policy is consistent with sustainable economic growth and achieving the inflation target over time. RBA commented that the economy is continuing its transition from the mining investment boom and that some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again. Top Asian News Singapore and Australia Margin Rules to Start in March 2017: Australia has six-month transition period for variation margin ICAP Showing Yuan Tumbling 8.8% Against Dollar Fuels Jitters: CFETS data show onshore spot rate rose amid weakening dollar Samsung’s Lee in Crosshairs as Tycoons Grilled Over Scandal: Tycoons testify in connection with influence-peddling case China’s Robot Boom Raises Yaskawa’s Prospects and Profile: Yaskawa President says he’s rejected several deal offers RBA Holds Key Rate as Commodity Upswing Outweighs Slowdown: Annual growth figures predicted to slow in 3Q Half-Point India Rate Cut Seen by Economist Amid Cash Chaos: Call by IIFL’s Datar is more aggressive than consensus outlook In Europe, indices are slightly higher this morning (EUROSTOXX 50 +0.2%) with more news filtering through from the Italian banking sector, as sources suggest that Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) (-2.2%) board meeting is said to be delayed until Wednesday Or Thursday. Elsewhere, financials are bouncing back after losses seen yesterday, but this did coincide with broker upgrades for HSBC and SocGen. Also in equity markets spreadbetters are taking a hit (IG Group -30%) after FCA look to announce new rules for CFD trading accounts including increased margins and amendments to new customer bonus rules.In fixed income markets, Bunds trade largely flat this morning as participants await the ECB meeting. Today we have also seen outperformance in peripheral yields and some narrowing of the German/French spread following reports of more French government stability as Bernard Cazeneuve named is French PM. Top European News EU Said to Mull Seeking Post-Brexit Deal Before Transition Talk: Consensus forming on bloc’s Brexit position, EU officials say ABN Amro to Sell $20 Billion of Private Banking Assets to LGT: ABN Amro agreed to sell its private-banking assets in Asia and the Middle East to Liechtenstein-based LGT to focus on its European operations Monte Paschi Recapitalization Hangs in Balance After Debt Swap: Troubled lender releases final results of debt conversion, set to decide in coming days whether to proceed with plan In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed after falling 0.4 percent Monday. The euro traded at $1.0773 after ending Monday up 0.9 percent, erasing an earlier slide of as much as 1.5 percent in the wake of the Italian vote. The Australian dollar led declines among major economies, falling 0.5 percent to 74.38 U.S. cents, after the nation’s central bank central bank kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In commodities, oil prices slipped on Tuesday as crude output rose in virtually every major export region despite plans by OPEC and Russia to cut production, triggering fears that a fuel glut that has dogged markets for over two years might last well into 2017. Brent futures were trading at $54.64 per barrel at 0935 GMT, down 30 cents from Monday's close; WTI was at $51.39 a barrel, down 40 cents. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters said the boost from last week's decision by OPEC to cut crude production had faded and the cartel's promise had been undermined by data showing rising production from within its member countries and Russia. "Most of the position adjustments that the OPEC decision forced upon traders have now run their course and it leaves the market exposed to profit taking," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, citing surveys pointing to record production from OPEC during November. "What's troubling is that the rise is coming from African producers, two of which are exempt from cutting production," he said. Aluminum fell 1.2 percent to $1,713 a metric ton, the biggest drop in a week. The metal will probably tumble next month as an “irrational” increase in prices prompts companies to restart plants, while new capacity also ramps up in the world’s largest supplier, according to China’s top metals industry group. Copper lost 1.4 percent and zinc slid 0.7 percent. Looking at the day ahead, the early data out this morning in Europe came from Germany where the October factory orders data was released, and came in an unexpectedly hot 6.3% Y/Y vs Exp. 1.6%, up from 2.9%. The final revisionsto Q3 GDP in the Euro area also came in and as expected, it remained at +0.3% qoq. In the US we’ll get the October trade balance reading, with the final Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data also scheduled for release. Factory orders data for the month of October is also due along with this month’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index reading. Lastly, final durable and capital goods orders revisions for October will be released. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Trade Balance, Oct., est. -$42.0b (prior -$36.4b) 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 3Q F, est. 3.3% (prior 3.1%) 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales 10am: Factory Orders, Oct., est. 2.6% (prior 0.3%) ; Durable Goods Orders, Oct. F, est. 3.4% (prior 4.8%); Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Aircraft, Oct F (prior 0.4%) 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Dec. (est. 51.4) 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Had you known in advance the outcomes of all the three big events of the year (Brexit, US elections and the Italian referendum) would it have helped you make money? It's not obvious that it would, especially if your timing was slightly off. Clearly there are some assets where the impact would have been fairly obvious but the wider markets have been more difficult to second guess. For us the Italy 'no' result was relatively well priced in given the likely immediate ramifications but we still would have expected the jitters for longer than the 2 minutes the European markets took to bottom out yesterday morning. With Italy it's still possible that post the rejection everything stays similar in the government apart from PM Renzi who as we know tendered his resignation yesterday. So the market is giving Italy the benefit of the doubt for now even if there was some underperformance of Italian risk yesterday. Indeed the FTSE MIB initially dropped -2.20% at the open but that fall proved short lived with the index then rebounding and peaking a shade above +1.50% a short time later. Thereafter, the index swung in and out of positive and negative territory before finishing the day down a modest -0.21%. That was in the context of a +0.56% gain for the Stoxx 600 and an impressive +1.63% jump for the DAX. Unsurprisingly much of the focus was on how banks would fare. While the Stoxx 600 banks index closed up a fairly resilient +0.76% there were notable heavy falls for the likes of Banco Popolare di Milano (-7.91%), Banco Popolare (-7.44%), Mediobanca (-4.24%) and Unicredit (-3.36%) as the market questioned the likelihood of some of the ongoing bank recapitalisation plans going ahead.It was a similar story in credit markets although the underperformance of financials generally was more obvious. The iTraxx Main index ended the day little changed but did wipe out an early 3bp move wider, while the iTraxx Crossover index finished 5bps tighter. Senior financials did end 3bps wider however while subordinated financials were over 6bps wider by the end of play. Of the four Italian banks within the latter index, Mediobanca spreads were 3bps wider while spreads for Intesa Sanpaolo, Generali and Unicredit were 8bps to 10bps wider. So some underperformance but as we mentioned at the top perhaps some signs that the market is giving Italy the benefit of the doubt for now. Over in sovereign bond markets 10y BTP yields finished the day 8.3bps higher at 1.981% which compares to a 5.0bp move higher for similar maturity Bund yields. The remainder of the periphery was actually little changed. Elsewhere the Euro traded in a near 3% range. After tumbling as much as -1.50% early in the Asia session it then rallied as Europe kicked into gear and actually closed up +0.94% on the day. The US session was for the most part a reflection of the reasonably positive sentiment. The S&P 500 closed up +0.58% and 10y Treasury yields ended a modest 1bp higher at a shade below 2.400%.While we expect the political situation to move fairly swiftly it’s still worth considering the medium-term consequences for Italy in the wake of the result. In his note following the result yesterday, DB’s Marco Stringa made the important reminder that the referendum was a catalyst rather than the cause of Italy’s complex situation. The complexity is due to disappointing growth, concerns about the banking system and the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. At least initially, Marco does not expect to revise down GDP projections as the "No" outcome was his central case scenario. The likelihood of a systemic solution for the NPL issue will influence the medium-term evolution of the Italian banking sector and banks' ability to support investment growth. Marco expects no pro-active systemic solution for the banking sector before the next election. He also expects a new electoral law for both Houses of the Parliament. In his opinion, it is important that a compromise on a new electoral law does not lead to a system that encourages the formation of governments supported by overly heterogeneous coalitions. Politics was the overwhelmingly dominating theme throughout yesterday. Along with digesting the Italian referendum outcome, there was also some focus on a Sunday Times article confirming the UK Government’s plans to potentially pay into the EU budget for access to the single market, something which PM May is calling a ‘grey Brexit’, i.e. in between the black and white demands of leave and remain hardliners. So further evidence that the UK government is becoming increasingly pragmatic from the early hard line stance. As a reminder the Supreme Court hearing continues today. Elsewhere, news also tricked in late in the day that Eurozone finance ministers had agreed to provide short term debt relief measures for Greece prepared by the European Stability Mechanism, although they seemingly failed to form a consensus on a broader accord for various reform targets and measures. Significantly, the participation of the IMF in the bailout program appears to still be up in the air with talks breaking up last night over splits in the various reform targets. According to the FT, Eurogroup President, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, confirmed that getting the IMF on board by the end of the year is unlikely and that instead talks will continue into the New Year. Meanwhile over in France, the latest update there is that Prime Minister Manuel Valls has declared that he will run for presidency as had been somewhat expected following the news that Hollande had ruled himself out of contention. Refreshing our screens this morning it’s been a broadly positive session in Asia this morning. Markets have largely followed the lead from the moves in Europe and on Wall Street last night with the Nikkei (+0.53%), Hang Seng (+0.86%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%), Kospi (+1.32%) and ASX (+0.81%) all edging higher. EM currencies are also generally a touch stronger, while the Aussie Dollar has weakened modestly (about -0.17% as type) after the RBA left rates on hold as expected. Moving on. As far as the economic data was concerned yesterday, it was on the whole relatively positive. The primary focus in the US was on the November ISM non-manufacturing print which was reported as rising 2.4pts to 57.2 and well exceeding expectations for a rise to 55.5. That is in fact the best reading since October 2015 and whilst the details revealed a modest decline in new orders (by 0.7pts to 57.0) there were gains across components of business activity, employment and new export orders. It was noted that the employment component in particular, which came in at 58.2, is the 5th largest print since the start of the series in 1997. Meanwhile, the final services PMI reading for November was revised down a modest 0.1pts to 54.6 which puts the composite at 54.9 and unchanged versus October. Lastly the labour market conditions index for November was reported as rising by 1.5pts in November which is the best monthly gain since July. In Europe the data was focused on the final November PMI readings. There was a bit of disappointment in the final services revision for the Euro area which was revised down from 54.1 to 53.8 largely as a result of a 1pt downward revision in France to 51.6. Putting it in context however that reading for the Euro area is still the highest this year while the composite level of 53.9 is also the highest in 2016. The most interesting takeaway was the data for the non-core and specifically Italy where the services reading printed at a bumper 53.3 (vs. 51.6 expected), up 2.3pts from October and the highest level since February. Our European economists highlighted that, should the data for the Euro area remain unchanged in December, then the composite PMI would point to GDP growth of +0.4% qoq in Q4 and so represents some upside to their current estimate. Before we look at today’s calendar, yesterday also marked the last day for Fedspeak prior the blackout period kicking in, although again there was little new that could move the dial. NY Fed President William Dudley opined that ‘it is important that fiscal and monetary policy are well aligned going forward’ and that ‘there appears to be few imbalances in the economy that could lead to the current expansion ending’. Perhaps more interestingly, Dudley acknowledged the recent tightening in financial conditions but also suggested that that he does not see this as prompting great concern and instead said that it seems broadly consistent given that it’s being driven by a greater likelihood of stronger near-term aggregate demand and less downside risk to the growth outlook. Meanwhile Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Fed needs to be patient to ‘see what fiscal program emerges’ but that he see’s every reason to think that the economy is to ‘stay strong for the next few years given Trump administration’s planned policies’. Looking at the day ahead, the early data out this morning in Europe comes from Germany where the October factory orders data will be released. Later this morning we’ll get the final revisions to Q3 GDP in the Euro area along with the growth components. No change from the +0.3% qoq flash print is expected. This afternoon in the US we’ll firstly get the October trade balance reading, with the final Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data also scheduled for release. Factory orders data for the month of October is also due along with this month’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index reading. Lastly, final durable and capital goods orders revisions for October will be released.
Азиатские фондовые индексы, продемонстрировавшие падение в понедельник из-за результатов референдума в Италии, во вторник выросли благодаря восстановлению аппетита к риску, стабилизации евро и сильным статданным из США, передает CNBC.
В середине декабря в центре внимания будут заседания центральных банков развитых стран. В последние недели в мире на фоне роста цен на нефть (и в некоторой степени, президентства Дональда Трампа) в мире выросли инфляционные ожидания, так что риторика регуляторов может несколько измениться. Сегодня старт сезону заседаний дал Резервный Банк Австралии, ожидаемо оставивший ставку на уровне
Азиатские фондовые индексы, продемонстрировавшие падение в понедельник из-за результатов референдума в Италии, во вторник растут благодаря восстановлению аппетита к риску, стабилизации евро и сильным статданным из США, передает CNBC.
Резервный банк Австралии (РБА) во вторник оставил базовую процентную ставку на рекордно низкой отметке - 1,5%, говорится в сообщении ЦБ.
Резервный банк Австралии: Процентные ставки соответствуют целям в отношении экономического роста и инфляции
Вероятно некоторое замедление экономического роста в конце года, прежде чем он снова ускорится Рынок жилья укрепился, однако ситуация различается по стране. Цены на жилье можно назвать оживленными на некоторых рынках Индикаторы рынка труда несколько неоднозначные, однако указывают на рост занятости в краткосрочной перспективе Инфляция довольно низкая и остается низкой длительное время Условия в экономике Китая стабилизировались, среднесрочные риски сохраняются Вероятно некоторое замедление роста ВВП в конце года Высокий курс австралийского доллара может осложнить переходный период в экономике Источник: FxTeam
Во вторник состоится последнее в этом году заседание Резервного банка Австралии, от которого эксперты не ожидают изменений в параметрах денежно-кредитной политики. На заседании в ноябре Резервный банк Австралии оставил ключевую процентную ставку на рекордно низком уровне 1,50%, воздержавшись от принятия дополнительных мер. Руководители банка приняли это решение на фоне опасений по поводу слабости инфляции и противоречивых данных по рынку труда, а также перегрева рынка недвижимости. "С учетом имеющейся информации и после смягчения денежно-кредитной политики на заседаниях в мае и в августе правление сочло, что сохранение прежней политики на этом заседании соответствовало бы устойчивому росту экономики и достижению со временем целевого уровня инфляции", - сказано в заявлении центрального банка по итогам заседания. В 3-м квартале инфляция была сильнее, чем ожидалось, но РБА отметил, что она остается низкой и ее резкое ускорение в течение некоторого времени маловероятно. По сравнению со 2-м кварталом потребительские цены выросли на 0,7% при прогнозе роста на 0,5%. Годовая инфляция ускорилась до 1,3%, но пока не достигла установленного центральным банком целевого диапазона 2%-3%. Экономисты отмечают слабость базовой инфляции, считая, что РБА должен с большим вниманием относиться к этому индикатору, чем к общей инфляции. Вместе с тем управляющий РБА Филип Лоуи недавно дал понять, что центральный банк может позволить инфляции оставаться ниже целевого диапазона более продолжительное время. Заместитель управляющего Резервного банка Австралии (РБА) Крис Кент заявил в ноябре, что сокращение безработицы маскирует слабость, но перспективы остаются позитивными. Уровень безработицы в этом году упал до 5,6% с более чем 6% в 2015 году, но данное снижение почти исключительно вызвано созданием рабочих мест с частичной занятостью. Это вызвало опасения в отношении экономической ситуации. Некоторые экономисты считают, что избыток незадействованных ресурсов на рынке труда дает РБА пространство для снижения ключевой процентной ставки, которая сейчас находится на рекордном минимуме в 1,5%. Тем не менее, в последнее время центральный банк сигнализирует о растущем нежелании смягчать политику. "Ухудшение ситуации с полной занятостью в стране за последние несколько лет в значительной мере вызвано слабым спросом на рабочую силу в горнодобывающих штатах. Но эти факторы сходят на нет", - сказал Кент во вторник. Между тем занятость в восточных штатах, где численность населения значительно больше, нацелена на умеренный рост, добавил он. "Опережающие индикаторы занятости - объявления о найме и количество вакансий - показывают, что занятость в предстоящие месяцы будет умеренно расти в штатах, где не развита горнодобывающая отрасль, но будет оставаться слабой в горнодобывающих штатах", - сказал он. "Существует неплохая перспектива ускорения роста номинального спроса в горнодобывающих штатах, а значит, и в экономике в целом, - сказал Кент. - Это будет способствовать усилению инфляционного давления в стране и постепенному возврату инфляции к более нормальным уровням". Согласно опросу, проведенному информационным агентством Reuters, Резервный банк Австралии, на заседании 6 декабря, оставит процентную ставку на рекордно низком уровне 1,5%. 17 из 29 опрошенных респондентов прогнозируют ослабление политики РБА к середине 2017 года. 20 прогнозируют повышение ставок на 1 квартал 2018 года. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which already appears to have been largely digested by the market, despite a variety of unknown consequences still to emerge. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting. As BofA notes, Mario Draghi's interview in El Pais on the last day before the ECB starts its pre-meeting "quiet period" sets the landscape quite clearly. The decisions will come next week (in direct contrast with those who advocated waiting until January), tapering "proper" (i.e., winding down the programme) is not on the table, and the discussion on QE ultimately boils down to either continuing with the current pace of buying of EUR80bn for a relatively short period of time, or reducing the pace but buying for a longer period of time. Draghi did not hint at any personal preference there. It seems that both options would be consistent with "preserving the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation" that is needed. BofA, as well as Goldman and many other banks, expect Draghi to continue monetizing debt at a pace of €80bn per month until Sept. 2017 at the earliest, with flexibility on the capital key and moving the issue limit on non-CAC bonds. Back to key economic events, the breakdown is as follows: In the US we have ISM survey, trade balance, durable goods, wholesale inventories and U.Michigan index. Fed speakers currently on schedule are concentrated on Monday. In the Eurozone, beyond the Italian referendum result and the ECB important releases include Eurozone PMIs (Final), October retail sales and 3Q GDP (Final). In the UK, the main releases are PMIs, industrial production, trade balance and housing. We also highlight the court hearings concerning government’s appeal against A50 ruling. In Australia, the focus is on the RBA meeting as well as on the economic releases including trade balance, GDP and foreign reserves. In Japan, we await releases on PMIs, GDP, trade balance and money supply. In China, the main releases are trade balance and inflation. * * * A quick look at the global week ahead on a daily basis: This morning in Europe we’re kicking off the week with the remainder of the November PMI’s which includes the final services and composite revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France, as well as a first look at the data for the UK and non-core. Euro area retail sales data for the month of October is also out today. In the US we’ll get the remaining PMI’s as well as the ISM non-manufacturing print for November and labour market conditions index. Tuesday kicks off in Germany with the latest factory orders data before we then get the final Q3 GDP reading for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the October trade balance reading, Q3 unit labour costs and nonfarm productivity, October factory orders, December IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading and the final durable and capital goods orders revisions. Germany gets things going again on Wednesday when we’ll get the latest industrial production report. French trade data and UK industrial and manufacturing production will also be released. The only data due out in the US on Wednesday is JOLTS job openings and consumer credit for October. China will also release November foreign reserves data at some stage. The early data to get things going on Thursday comes from Japan where the final Q3 GDP reading will be released. China will then be following with important November trade data. There’s no data in Europe on Thursday but all eyes will be on the main event of the week, the ECB policy meeting outcome just after midday. The only data out of the US on Thursday will be initial jobless claims. We close out the week in Asia on Friday with the November CPI and PPI prints in China. In Europe we’ll get trade data in Germany, industrial production data in France and trade data in the UK. Over in the US we’ll get the final October wholesale inventories report along with a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. Away from the data the Fedspeak this week all comes today with Dudley, Evans and Bullard scheduled. * * * Finally, here is a full summary of key US events, together with consensus and estimates from Goldman Sachs Monday, December 5 08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Association for a Better New York. 09:11 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the Executives’ Club of Chicago’s CEO Breakfast. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, November final (consensus 54.7, last 54.7) 10:00 AM Labor market conditions index, November (consensus -0.2, last +0.7) 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, November (GS 55.0, consensus 55.5, last 54.8): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to edge up to 55.0 in the November report, up from 54.8. While non-manufacturing surveys were mixed at the headline level, underlying details from the reports suggest that business activity improved modestly on net in November. The Dallas Fed (+9.6pt to +12.6) and the New York Fed (+6.4pt to -6.8, not seasonally adjusted) service sector surveys both strengthened, while the Philly Fed (-10.7pt to +10.6) and Richmond Fed (-4pt to +3) surveys softened. The Markit Services PMI also ticked down in November. Our non-manufacturing tracker stands at 53.3 for November, from 52.9 in October. 02:05 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the W.P. Carey School of Business’ Economic Forecast luncheon at Arizona State University. Media Q&A is expected. Tuesday, December 6 08:30 AM Trade balance, October (GS -$41.1bn, consensus -$42.0bn, last -$36.4bn): We expect the trade balance to widen in October to -$41.1bn. The Census Bureau’s new Advance Economic Indicators report showed a larger than anticipated trade deficit in October. 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 final (GS +3.4%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.1%): Unit labor costs (qoq), Q3 final (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We expect Q3 nonfarm productivity to be revised up to +3.4% (qoq ar) from 3.1%, primarily reflecting upward revisions to output. Unit labor costs are likely to be revised up to 0.8%. 10:00 AM Factory orders, October (GS +2.9%, consensus +2.5%, last +0.3%): Factory orders likely moved up in October, following last week’s durable goods report which showed new durable goods orders were firmer than expected. 10:00 AM Durable goods orders, October final (consensus +4.8%, last +4.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October final (last +1.0%); Core capital goods orders, October final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, October final (last +0.2%) Wednesday, December 7 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, October (consensus 5,445, last 5,486): Consensus expects job openings to edge down in October following a slight gain in the September report. The layoff and discharge rate moved down to an all-time low for the series. 03:00 PM Consumer credit, October (consensus $18.5bn, last $19.3bn) Thursday, December 8 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 3 (GS 260k, consensus 255k, last 268k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 26 (consensus 2,048k, last 2,081k): We expect initial jobless claims to decrease to 260k from 268k last week. Last week, initial claims rose more than expected, most likely due to temporary volatility resulting from the Thanksgiving holiday during the reference week. Friday, December 9 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, October final (consensus -0.4%, last -0.4%) 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 94.5, consensus 94.4, last 93.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to increase further to 94.5 in the December preliminary estimate, following an improvement in the November report. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to a new cyclical high in the December report. Source: BofA, Goldman, DB
Согласно опросу, проведенному информационным агентством Reuters, Резервный банк Австралии, на заседании 6 декабря, оставит процентную ставку на рекордно низком уровне 1,5%. 17 из 29 опрошенных респондентов прогнозируют ослабление политики РБА к середине 2017 года. 20 прогнозируют повышение ставок на 1 квартал 2018 года.Источник: FxTeam
Following September's 9.3% MoM plunge in Aussie home approvals, hopes were high that October would see a bounce (expectations were for a 2% gain) as central bankers jawboned confidence higher. However, it didn't... Building approvals collapsed 12.6% MoM and a shocking 24.9% year-over-year decline is equal to the worst drop since Lehman. Ironically, just this month Aussie Treasurer eased restrictions on foreign buyers (otherwise known as bag holders it would seem). It's been weak year anyway but this is an utter disaster as the Aussie housing bubble finally pops... (on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis the year-over-year drop is 28% - the biggest since Nov 2008) This is the lowest level of building approvals per capita in 2 years as it seems China's credit impulse has faded entirely. The cracks have been showing with default rates on the rise (as AFR reports) Mirvac said it experienced a rise in the default rate for the settlement of off-the-plan residential sales, above its historic average of 1 per cent. On top of defaults, the Australian apartment markets – which boomed in the last four years – are facing other fresh risks... On Friday, HSBC said an oversupply of apartments in Melbourne and Brisbane could send unit prices down by as much as 6 per cent in 2017. The apartment building boom, an ongoing concern for the Reserve Bank of Australia, especially in inner city Melbourne is likely to "start showing through" in price drops of between 2 per cent and 6 per cent in that city next year, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said in a note. It's a similar story in Brisbane where apartment prices are forecast to fall by as much as 4 per cent. "A national apartment building boom, which has been part of the rebalancing act, is likely to deliver some oversupply in the Melbourne and Brisbane apartment markets, which is expected to see apartment price falls in these markets," Mr Bloxham said. "A modest shakeout in the inner-city apartment markets in Brisbane and Melbourne, as we are forecasting, is not expected to have a broad-based impact on the overall housing market or economy." Which perhaps explains why Aussie Treasurer Scott Morrison said the government will make changes to the foreign investment framework to allow foreign buyers to buy an off-the-plan dwelling that another foreign buyer has failed to settle as a new dwelling. The federal government has announced it will make it easier for foreigners to buy new apartments amid concerns of a looming glut that will drive down prices. Previously, on-sale of a purchased off the plan apartment was regarded as a second hand sale, which is not open to foreign buyers. Foreign buyers can only buy new dwellings. The move effectively opens up the pool of buyers who can soak a potential flood of apartments hitting the residential markets due to failed settlements. Hoping for some of the capital taking flight from China to rush down, we are sure. By way of reminder, here is David Llewellyn-Smith via Acting-Man.com, to explain why the Australian property bubble is on a scale like no other... Yesterday Citi produced a new index which pinned the Australian property bubble at 16 year highs: Bubble trouble. Whether we label them bubbles, the Australian economy has experienced a series of developments that potentially could have the economy lurching from boom to bust and back. In recent years these have included: the record run up in commodity prices and subsequent correction; the associated boom in mining investment and current reversal; record low bond yields; the boom in housing construction, specifically apartments, that was spurred by the low interest rates. Housing indicators in the bubble meter are at record highs but interest rates remain at record lows. Typically monetary policy is well into tightening mode at this stage in the housing cycle. A destabilizing housing burst (both in activity and prices) is a clear risk, particularly the longer the upswing runs. Click to enlarge. The size of the Australian property bubble is old news. It’s extreme in valuation terms: Click to enlarge. Click to enlarge. Underpinned by world-beating household debt: Click to enlarge. And nose-bleed levels of foreign borrowing: Click to enlarge. What is less well understood is how such a large and sustained bubble has distorted the Australian political economy. The bubble has been running for twenty years (which some argue proves it is no such thing) and every time it has been threatened it was saved by luck or a bailout which sold off a little more of Australia’s liberal democracy. In 2003, the bubble first threatened to burst as the Reserve Bank raised interest rates. But the bubble was rescued by the combined forces of demand side fiscal stimulus for first home buyers in the form of large cash grants, and the arrival the Chinese commodity boom that flooded the economy with people and income. The government of the day learned its lesson and economic reform has been dead ever since! In 2008, the bubble was jeopardised again when the pipeline of offshore debt froze solid and major Australian banks were rendered insolvent given they could not roll over their enormous foreign debts. The government of the day rode to their rescue with guarantees to all offshore funding, directly bought mortgage backed securities (which it still holds), unleashed the largest proportional fiscal stimulus in the world, doubled the first home buyer grants, opened the spigots on foreign investor buying, and other measures. Almost all of it violated existing financial sector architecture and governance and virtually none of it has been wound back. No housing market in the world enjoyed such wholesale and limitless support. In 2011, the bubble again faltered when the China commodity boom returned and raised interest rates. But, when threatened, the bubble was bailed out, this time by a central bank that desperately cut interest rates to all-time lows because it had over-estimated the durability of the commodities boom, and an influx of Chinese capital that was allowed to price-out local buyers with barely a word of protest from regulatory authorities. While those three saves of the bubble have been widely admired as solid Keynesian policy-making, and have allowed Australia to claim a “miracle” economic expansion of 25 years, they have also transformed its economy and political economy. The Australian economy is now structurally uncompetitive as capital inflows persistently keep its currency too high, usually chasing land prices that ensure input costs are amazingly inflated as well. Unsurprisingly, Australian manufacturing’s share of outlook has collapsed to 5.8% of GDP (even before the exit of car manufacturing scheduled for the next 12 months) half that of the supposedly “hollowed out” US and UK economies, and on a par with the financial haven of Luxembourg. Wider tradables sectors have been hit hard as well and Australian exports are now a lousy 20% of GDP despite the largest mining boom in history. The other major economic casualty has been multi-factor productivity. It has been virtually zero for fifteen years as capital was consistently and massively mis-allocated into unproductive assets. To grow at all today, the nation now runs chronic twin deficits with the current account at -4% and Budget deficit of -3% of GDP. But the damage is in some ways even worse in the political economy. How have Australian authorities responded to this growing crisis? By egging it on. Not only are they running unsustainable deficits into looming sovereign downgrades, they have sustained historically very high rates of immigration to attempt to back-fill and support property prices. These levels have been so aggressive in the major eastern cities, which are now projecting a near doubling of their populations within 40 years (from four-plus to eight million), that elections are now routinely won and lost on issues of choked infrastructure, and a vehemently anti-immigration movement is afoot in the polity. Younger generations are also boiling over with anger at being locked out of housing markets. A full half of first home buyers rely upon parents for equity and their numbers have collapsed to just 12% of total sales. Five prime ministers in six years have come and gone as standards of living fall in part owing to massive immigration inappropriate to economic circumstances and other property-friendly policy. The most recent national election boiled down to a virtual referendum on real estate taxation subsidies. The victor, the conservative Coalition party, betrayed every market principle its possesses by mounting an extreme fear campaign against the Labor party’s proposal to remove negative gearing. This tax policy allows more than one million Australians to engage in a negative carry into property in the hope of capital gains. In a nation of just 24 million, 1.3 million Australians lose an average of $9k per annum on this strategy thanks to the tax break. The campaign against tax reform was led by former head of Goldman Sachs Australia, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who is a large Australian property-holder, and Treasurer Scott Morrison, who is the former head of research at the Property Council of Australia, the nation’s leading realty lobby. Australia’s 225 politicians hold a combined property portfolio worth over $300m. The property corruption has even undermined the nation’s strategic outlook. The large wave of Chinese immigrants and investors have been accompanied by a hard-edged soft power drive from Beijing that is sorely undermining Australia’s commitment to its traditional US alliance partner. Chinese bribery scandals have erupted in the parliament, usually from property-based sources, and have clearly perverted policy-making. So much so, that Australia’s defence and espionage agencies are in a rising panic that Australia is literally auctioning its strategic outlook to Chinese property speculators. How could all of this happen without the media holding it to account? As the economy gets ever more reliant upon its great foreign-funded housing ponzi scheme, and the political economy wraps ever more tightly around it, Australian media has been engulfed as well. Aussie media is a duopoly divided between a conservative Murdoch press and liberal Fairfax press. But both are largely loss-making old media empires whose only major growth profit centres are the nation’s two largest real estate portals, realestate.com.au and Domain. Thus neither reports real estate with any objective other than the further inflation of prices. Indeed newspaper (print and online) operations are nothing more than loss-leaders for over-excited real estate eyeballs. In the event that the Australian bubble were to pop then Australians will certainly be the last to know and the propaganda is so thick that they may never find out until they actually try to sell! Before the year 2000, the Australian economy was a vibrant mix of world-leading productivity growth, liberalised tradable sectors balanced between commodities, services and manufacturing, solid household wealth, a reasonable external position, a clean public balance sheet and reliable institutions. Today, it is a wildly imbalanced propertocracy with enormous offshore debts, a polity soaked by a Goebbels-like property propaganda machine, and a government run by realty carpet-baggers willing to sell their children to Chinese communists so long long as they pick up a three bedroom apartment along with little Johnny. In a world replete with bubbles, rarely has one been quite so complete!