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Резервный банк Австралии
19 января, 10:13

Мнение Goldman Sachs о сегодняшних данных из Австралии и следующих шагах РБА

Сегодня были опубликованы важные данные по занятости и инфляции в Австралии. Уровень безработицы в декабре увеличился до 5.8% с 5.7% в ноябре. При этом число рабочих мест в Австралии в декабре увеличилось на 13.5 тыс, что выше прогноза экономистов 10 тыс. Также сегодня стало известно, что ожидания по инфляции в январе составили 4.3%, что выше предыдущего 3.4%. Аналитики банка Goldman Sachs заявили, что рост безработицы за последний месяц еще ни о чем не говорит. Занятость в Австралии укреплялась 9 месяцев подряд и, по мнению экспертов, общие данные за 4 квартал также будут позитивными. В то же аналитики подчеркнули рост инфляции. В Goldman Sachs считают, что при такой динамике занятости и роста инфляции Резервный банк Австралии повысит ставку на 25 базисных пункта, но вряд ли раньше 1-го квартала 2018 года. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

03 января, 11:55

Темпы роста цен на жилье в Австралии в 2016 г. стали максимальными за 7 лет

Цены на жилье в Австралии в 2016 году выросли максимальными темпами за 7 лет благодаря низким процентным ставкам, поддержавшим спрос на недвижимость.

21 декабря 2016, 20:43

Нефть развернулась и будет падать

Лидеры роста и падения в среду       WHEAT: погода толкнет цены вверхТоварно-сырьевой рынокВ среду министр энергетики России Новак заявил, что между нефтедобытчиками должно быть доверие – только в таких условиях можно достигнуть результатов в ограничении объемов добычи нефти. Причем звучал он довольно оптимистично, что тоже подогревает интерес к углеводороду на рынке.Однако пока мы не дождемся первых данных по январской добыче, мы не сможем с уверенностью сказать, насколько «честны» представители ОПЕК. А, значит, сейчас рынок будет ориентироваться исключительно на данные по коммерческим запасам США и отчет от Baker Hughes.После данных от Американского института нефти (API) рынок поверил, что сокращение коммерческих запасов продолжается. Поэтому опубликованные в среду данные от Минэнерго стали громом среди ясного неба. Показатель вырос на 2,256 млн, показав максимальный за последние 5 неделю прирост. И мы об этом предупреждали.Brent уже развернулась вниз, пробив 56,00 долл./барр и двигаясь вниз. Не исключено, что и в четверг движение продолжится на ожиданиях новой порции  негативных данных от Baker Hughes. Следующей целью на пути вниз может стать отметка 54,40.Валютный рынокAUD/USD долгое время падала под давлением сильного доллара и страхов по поводу Китая. Приход Трампа сулит угрозу для торговли КНР с США, так как были разговоры о повышении пошлин на 45% для защиты американских интересов. Насколько эти угрозы реальны, нам предстоит узнать только после 20 января (инаугурация Трампа), однако тот факт, что страхи уже полностью заложены в цену стоит учесть. Это создает условия для коррекции AUD/USD даже на технических факторах. Однако есть и фундамент – Резервный Банк Австралии дал понять своим недавним выступлением, что понижать в ближайшее время ставку не намерен. А это значит, что у пары есть все шансы добраться до отметки 0,7330.USD/RUB не успела в среду полностью отыграть резкий разворот котировок Brent. Рост коммерческих запасов нефти в подземных хранилищах США удивил и разочаровал сырьевые рынки, поддержав умеренные продажи российского рубля. Так как все это время фактором поддержки выступал и спрос экспортеров на российскую валюту в рамках налогового периода, неудивительно достижение парой USD/RUB 5-дневного минимума.Однако именно в этой точке мы ждем разворота пары вверх, о котором говорили в начале недели. Теперь на рынке созданы все условия, чтобы пара начала расти. Во-первых, Brent вступила в режим распродаж. Во-вторых, спрос на рубль со стороны экспортеров постепенно падает. В результате, пара готова пойти вверх с целью на 61,70 и далее на 62,40.Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.С новым Трампом! Прогноз на 1 квартал 2017 годаПрошедший год оказался полон сюрпризов. Первым подарком стало июньское голосование Великобритании о выходе из Евросоюза. Вторым – победа Дональда Трампа на президентских выборах в США в ноябре 2016 года. И теперь уже новоявленный президент США будет готовить подарки для финансового рынка. Главный вопрос – с чего же он начнет? Какой индекс выиграет больше остальных? Вернут ли металлы популярность? Кто станет главным конкурентом доллара? Что теперь делать с пшеницей?Узнать больше нефть, доллар, aud/usd, форекс клуб, рубль Времяи Страна Время и событие Событие и волатильность Прошлое Прогноз Факт Единицы четверг, 22 декабря 00:01 GBR 00:01 Индекс потребительского доверия от Gfk (декабрь) -8 -8 -7   -8,00 Прошлое значение -8,00 Прогноз -7,00 Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Индекс потребительского доверия от GfK Group является опережающим индикатором, отражающим уровень доверия потребителей к экономической активности. Высокий уровень потребительского доверия стимулирует рост экономики, а низкий –ее падение. Обычно высокий показатель считается позитивным (или бычьим) для GBP, а низкий – негативным (или медвежьим).Официальный отчет(www.gfk.com) Исторические данные График Таблица 02:00 NZL 02:00 Агрегат денежной массы M3 (г/г) (ноябрь) 7.1 5.9 % 7,10% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 5,90% Фактическое значение Агрегат денежной массы M3, публикуемый Резервным Банком Новой Зеландии, отражает сумму денег, находящуюся в обращении, включая банкноты и мелкие монеты, а также денежные средства на банковских счетах. Данный показатель считается важным индикатором инфляции, так как рост денежной массы способствует увеличению давления на валютный курс. Обычно рост денежной массы М3 является позитивным фактором для NZD, а ее снижение – негативным.Официальный отчет(www.rbnz.govt.nz) Исторические данные График Таблица 07:00 DEU 07:00 Индекс цен на импорт (г/г) (ноябрь) -0.6 0.3 % -0,60% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,30% Фактическое значение Индекс цен на импорт, публикуемый Бундесбанком, отражает изменение цен на товары, импортируемые Германией. Индекс цен на импорт играет важную роль в определении соотношения изменений объема торговли и цен. В то время как рост объемов импорта говорит об увеличении потребительского спроса и экономического роста, повышение цен на импорт предполагает рост производственных расходов и инфляционного давления.Официальный отчет(www.bundesbank.de) Исторические данные График Таблица 07:00 DEU 07:00 Индекс цен на импорт (м/м) (ноябрь) 0.9 0.7 % 0,90% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,70% Фактическое значение Индекс цен на импорт, публикуемый Бундесбанком, отражает изменение цен на товары, импортируемые Германией. Индекс цен на импорт играет важную роль в определении соотношения изменений объема торговли и цен. В то время как рост объемов импорта говорит об увеличении потребительского спроса и экономического роста, повышение цен на импорт предполагает рост производственных расходов и инфляционного давления.Официальный отчет(www.bundesbank.de) Исторические данные График Таблица 08:30 SWE 08:30 Индекс цен производителей (м/м) (ноябрь) 2 1.3 % 2,00% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 1,30% Фактическое значение Индекс оценивает среднее изменение оптовых цен, определяемых производителями на всех этапах изготовления. Высокий результат укрепляет шведскую крону, низкий - ослабляет. Исторические данные График Таблица 08:30 SWE 08:30 Индекс цен производителей (г/г) (ноябрь) 2.2 3.6 % 2,20% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 3,60% Фактическое значение Индекс оценивает среднее изменение оптовых цен, определяемых производителями на всех этапах изготовления. Высокий результат укрепляет шведскую крону, низкий - ослабляет. Исторические данные График Таблица 08:30 SWE 08:30 Розничные продажи (г/г) (ноябрь) 2.4 3.6 % 2,40% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 3,60% Фактическое значение Изменение объема продаж в сфере розничной торговли, основной индикатор потребительских расходов. Высокий результат укрепляет SEK, низкий - ослабляет. Исторические данные График Таблица 08:30 SWE 08:30 Розничные продажи (м/м) (ноябрь) 0.7 0.9 % 0,70% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,90% Фактическое значение Изменение объема продаж в сфере розничной торговли, основной индикатор потребительских расходов. Высокий результат укрепляет SEK, низкий - ослабляет. Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 EMU 09:00 Экономический бюллетень   Европейский центральный банк начинает публикацию нового экономического бюллетеня, который заменит ежемесячный отчет. Бюллетень публикуется через две недели после заседания Совета Управляющих.Официальный отчет(www.ecb.europa.eu) Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 ISL 09:00 Индекс потребительских цен (г/г) (декабрь) 2.1 1.9 % 2,10% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 1,90% Фактическое значение Индекс потребительских цен (CPI) – показатель, публикуемый Статистической организацией Исландии и отражающий динамику розничных цен на группутоваров и услуг, входящих в состав потребительской корзины. Инфляция подрывает покупательную способность исландской кроны. Индекс CPI является ключевым показателем инфляции и индикатором изменений покупательских трендов. В целом, его высокое значение является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для исландской кроны, а низкое – негативным (или медвежьим). Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 ISL 09:00 Индекс потребительских цен (м/м) (декабрь) 0 0.1 % 0,00% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,10% Фактическое значение Индекс потребительских цен (CPI) – показатель, публикуемый Статистической организацией Исландии и отражающий динамику розничных цен на группутоваров и услуг, входящих в состав потребительской корзины. Инфляция подрывает покупательную способность исландской кроны. Индекс CPI является ключевым показателем инфляции и индикатором изменений покупательских трендов. В целом, его высокое значение является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для исландской кроны, а низкое – негативным (или медвежьим). Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 ITA 09:00 Продажи в промышленном секторе (м/м) (октябрь) -4.6 0.8 % -4,60% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,80% Фактическое значение Продажи в промышленном секторе, публикуемые Национальным институтом статистики, отражают объем производства, выпускаемого итальянскими промышленными предприятиями, такими как заводы и производственные объекты. Рост объемов производства может спровоцировать ускорение темпов инфляции, что может обусловить повышение процентной ставки. Высокий объем промышленного производства является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для евро. Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 ITA 09:00 Продажи в промышленном секторе (г/г) (октябрь) -0.3 -0.9 % -0,30% Прошлое значение - Прогноз -0,90% Фактическое значение Продажи в промышленном секторе, публикуемые Национальным институтом статистики, отражают объем производства, выпускаемого итальянскими промышленными предприятиями, такими как заводы и производственные объекты. Рост объемов производства может спровоцировать ускорение темпов инфляции, что может обусловить повышение процентной ставки. Высокий объем промышленного производства является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для евро. Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 ITA 09:00 Промышленные заказы (г/г) (октябрь) 2.6 -3.2 % 2,60% Прошлое значение - Прогноз -3,20% Фактическое значение Промышленные заказы, публикуемые Национальным институтом статистики, представляют собой индикатор, включающий в себя отгрузки, складские запасы, а также новые и невыполненные заказы. Рост общего числа производственных заказов может указывать на укрепление итальянской экономики, а также является инфляционным фактором. Высокое значение показателя является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для EUR, а низкое – негативным (или медвежьим).Официальный отчет(www.istat.it) Исторические данные График Таблица 09:00 ITA 09:00 Промышленные заказы (м/м) (октябрь) -6.8 0.9 % -6,80% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,90% Фактическое значение Промышленные заказы, публикуемые Национальным институтом статистики, представляют собой индикатор, включающий в себя отгрузки, складские запасы, а также новые и невыполненные заказы. Рост общего числа производственных заказов может указывать на укрепление итальянской экономики, а также является инфляционным фактором. Высокое значение показателя является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для EUR, а низкое – негативным (или медвежьим).Официальный отчет(www.istat.it) Исторические данные График Таблица 10:00 ITA 10:00 Розничные продажи (м/м) (октябрь) -0.6 0.4 1.2 % -0,60% Прошлое значение 0,40% Прогноз 1,20% Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Розничные продажи, публикуемые Национальным институтом статистики, оценивают изменения объемов продаж в розничном секторе Италии. Процентное изменение отражает масштаб изменения розничных продаж. Индикатор отражает состояние розничного сектора в ближайшей перспективе. Изменение розничных продаж обычно считается индикатором потребительских расходов. В целом высокое значение показателя является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для EUR, а низкое – негативным (или медвежьим).Официальный отчет(www.istat.it) Исторические данные График Таблица 10:00 ITA 10:00 Розничные продажи без учета сезонных колебаний (г/г) (октябрь) -1.4 -0.2 % -1,40% Прошлое значение - Прогноз -0,20% Фактическое значение Розничные продажи, публикуемые Национальным институтом статистики, оценивают изменения объемов продаж в розничном секторе Италии. Процентное изменение отражает масштаб изменения розничных продаж. Индикатор отражает состояние розничного сектора в ближайшей перспективе. Изменение розничных продаж обычно считается индикатором потребительских расходов. В целом высокое значение показателя является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для EUR, а низкое – негативным (или медвежьим).Официальный отчет(www.istat.it) Исторические данные График Таблица 11:00 ITA 11:00 Торговый баланс со странами вне ЕС (ноябрь) 3.848B B 3.97B € 3,848€ Прошлое значение - Прогноз 3,97€ Фактическое значение Торговый баланс, публикуемый Национальным институтом статистики, представляет собой баланс между экспортом и импортом товаров и услуг. Положительное значение указывает на торговый профицит, а отрицательное – на торговый дефицит. Данный индикатор вызывает волатильность курса евро. Уверенный спрос на экспорт из Италии способствует росту профицита торгового баланса и является позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для евро.Официальный отчет(www.istat.it) Исторические данные График Таблица 12:00 RUS 12:00 Международные резервы Банка России ($) 387B B 379B $ 387,00$ Прошлое значение - Прогноз 379,00$ Фактическое значение Банк России публикует данные по международным резервам Российской Федерации. Резервы могут использоваться для контроля обменных курсов валют. Обыкновенно увеличение показателя укрепляет российский рубль. Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Базовый индекс потребительских цен от Банка Канады, г/г (ноябрь) 1.7 1.8 1.5 % 1,70% Прошлое значение 1,80% Прогноз 1,50% Фактическое значение (Хуже прогноза) Базовый индекс потребительских цен публикуется Банком Канады и не учитывает такие волатильные компоненты, как фрукты, овощи, бензин, топливное масло, природный газ, проценты по ипотеке, междугородное транспортное сообщение и табачные изделия. Данный показатель считается ключевым индикатором инфляции в Канаде. В целом его высокие показатели предполагают ястребиную реакцию Банка Канады и потому являются позитивными (бычьими) для CAD.Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Базовый индекс потребительских цен от Банка Канады, м/м (ноябрь) 0.2 -0.1 -0.5 % 0,20% Прошлое значение -0,10% Прогноз -0,50% Фактическое значение (Хуже прогноза) Базовый индекс потребительских цен публикуется Банком Канады и не учитывает такие волатильные компоненты, как фрукты, овощи, бензин, топливное масло, природный газ, проценты по ипотеке, междугородное транспортное сообщение и табачные изделия. Данный показатель считается ключевым индикатором инфляции в Канаде. В целом его высокие показатели предполагают ястребиную реакцию Банка Канады и потому являются позитивными (бычьими) для CAD. Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Базовый индекс потребительских цен (м/м) (ноябрь) 0.2 -0.4 % 0,20% Прошлое значение - Прогноз -0,40% Фактическое значение Базовый индекс потребительских цен, публикуемый Статистической службой Канады, отражает оценку ценовой динамики, полученную в результате сравнения розничных цен соответствующей корзины товаров и услуг без учета таких волатильных компонентов, как продукты питания, энергоносители, алкоголь и табачные изделия. Базовый CPI является ключевым индикатором определения уровня инфляции и изменения в трендах покупок. Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Индекс потребительских цен (г/г) (ноябрь) 1.5 1.4 1.2 % 1,50% Прошлое значение 1,40% Прогноз 1,20% Фактическое значение (Хуже прогноза) Индекс потребительских цен (CPI), публикуемый Бюро статистики, отражает оценку ценовой динамики, полученную в результате сравнения розничных цен соответствующей корзины товаров и услуг. Инфляция снижает покупательную способность CAD. Банк Канады нацелен на достижение диапазона инфляции (1%-3%). В целом высокое значение показателя является предвестником повышения ставки и позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для CAD.Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Индекс потребительских цен (м/м) (ноябрь) 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 % 0,20% Прошлое значение -0,20% Прогноз -0,40% Фактическое значение (Хуже прогноза) Индекс потребительских цен (CPI), публикуемый Бюро статистики, отражает оценку ценовой динамики, полученную в результате сравнения розничных цен соответствующей корзины товаров и услуг. Инфляция снижает покупательную способность CAD. Банк Канады нацелен на достижение диапазона инфляции (1%-3%). В целом высокое значение показателя является предвестником повышения ставки и позитивным (или бычьим) фактором для CAD.Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Розничные продажи (м/м) (октябрь) 0.6 0.2 1.1 % 0,60% Прошлое значение 0,20% Прогноз 1,10% Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Розничные продажи - ежемесячный показатель, публикуемый Статистической службой Канады и оценивающий совокупный объем розничных продаж через торговые точки различных типов и размеров, представленные на основе репрезентативной выборки. Индекс розничных продаж часто считается индикатором потребительского доверия. Он отражает состояние розничного сектора в ближайшей перспективе. Обычно положительный экономический рост является бычьим фактором для CAD.Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 CAN 13:30 Розничные продажи без учета продаж автомобилей (м/м) (октябрь) 0 0.7 1.4 % 0,00% Прошлое значение 0,70% Прогноз 1,40% Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Ежемесячный показатель, публикуемый Статистической службой Канады и оценивающий совокупный объем розничных продаж через торговые точки различных типов и размеров (за исключением автомобильного сектора), представленные на основе репрезентативной выборки. Индекс розничных продаж часто считается индикатором потребительского доверия. Он отражает состояние розничного сектора в ближайшей перспективе. Обычно положительный экономический рост является бычьим фактором для CAD.Официальный отчет(www.statcan.gc.ca) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Ценовой индекс ВВП (третий квартал) 1.4 1.4 1.4 % 1,40% Прошлое значение 1,40% Прогноз 1,40% Фактическое значение Индекс, публикуемый Бюро экономического анализа Министерства торговли США, характеризует изменение цен на товары и услуги. Его используют как индикатор инфляции и, как следствие, увеличения процентных ставок. Высокий результат укрепляет USD, низкий - ослабляет.Официальный отчет(www.bea.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Годовые данные по ВВП (третий квартал) 3.2 3.3 3.5 % 3,20% Прошлое значение 3,30% Прогноз 3,50% Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Данные публикуются Бюро экономического анализа и выражают стоимость всех товаров и услуг, реализованных в стране за указанный период. Годовые данные указывают тенденцию развития экономики, ее рост или сокращение. Высокий результат укрепляет USD, низкий - ослабляет.Официальный отчет(www.bea.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Заказы на товары длительного пользования без учета транспорта (ноябрь) 1 0.2 0.5 % 1,00% Прошлое значение 0,20% Прогноз 0,50% Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Индикатор публикуется Бюро переписи населения США, и отражает стоимость заказов, полученных производителями товаров длительного пользования. Под ними понимаются те, чей срок службы превышает 3 года, к примеру, автомобили. Поскольку производство таких товаров предусматривает крупные инвестиции, высокий результат укрепляет USD.Официальный отчет(www.census.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Заказы на товары длительного пользования (ноябрь) 4.8 -4.7 -4.6 % 4,80% Прошлое значение -4,70% Прогноз -4,60% Фактическое значение (лучше прогноза) Индикатор публикуется Бюро переписи населения и отражает стоимость заказов, полученных производителями товаров длительного пользования. Под ними понимаются те, чей срок службы превышает 3 года, к примеру, автомобили. Поскольку производство таких товаров предусматривает крупные инвестиции, высокий результат укрепляет USD.Официальный отчет(www.census.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Первичные заявки на пособия по безработице (16 декабря) 254K 256K 275K   254,00 Прошлое значение 256,00 Прогноз 275,00 Фактическое значение (Хуже прогноза) Данные Министерства труда по числу новых заявок на получение пособия по безработице. Определяет состояние рынка труда. Результат выше ожидаемого указывает на слабость рынка труда, что негативно отражается на долларе США. Низкий результат, напротив, укрепляет USD.Официальный отчет(www.dol.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Число повторных заявок на пособия по безработице (9 декабря) 2.018M 2.015M 2.036M   2,018 Прошлое значение 2,015 Прогноз 2,036 Фактическое значение (Хуже прогноза) Повторные заявки на пособия по безработице - показатель, публикуемый Министерством труда США. Отражают число незанятых в данный момент граждан и получающих пособия по безработице. Индикатор отражает состояние рынка труда. Рост значения негативно отражается на уровне потребления и экономическом росте. Высокий результат ослабляет доллар США, а низкий - укрепляет.Официальный отчет(www.dol.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Индекс национальной активности ФРБ Чикаго (ноябрь) -0.08 -0.27   -0,08 Прошлое значение - Прогноз -0,27 Фактическое значение Индекс национальной активности ФРБ Чикаго - это индекс, оценивающий экономическую активность в целом, а также инфляционные риски. Обновляется ежемесячно.Официальный отчет(www.chicagofed.org) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Индекс цен расходов на личное потребление (кв/кв) (третий квартал) 1.4 1.5 % 1,40% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 1,50% Фактическое значение Данные по расходам на личное потребление публикуются Бюро экономического анализа Министерства торговли США. Отражают среднюю сумму денег, которую потребители тратят в месяц на товары длительного пользования, потребительские товары и услуги. Базовый индекс не учитывает такие волатильные категории товаров, как продукты питания и энергоносители. Является важным индикатором инфляции.Высокий результат укрепляет доллар США, а низкий - ослабляет.Официальный отчет(www.bea.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 13:30 USA 13:30 Основной индекс расходов на личное потребление (кв/кв) (третий квартал) 1.7 1.7 1.7 % 1,70% Прошлое значение 1,70% Прогноз 1,70% Фактическое значение Данные по реальным расходам на личное потребление публикуются Бюро экономического анализа Министерства торговли США. Отражают среднюю сумму денег, которую потребители тратят в месяц на товары длительного пользования, потребительские товары и услуги. Являются важным индикатором инфляции.Высокий результат укрепляет доллар США, а низкий - ослабляет.Официальный отчет(www.bea.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 14:00 MEX 14:00 Базовая инфляция за 1-ую половину месяца (декабрь) 0.23 0.47 % 0,23% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,47% Фактическое значение Базовая инфляция за 1-ую половину месяца, публикуемая Банком Мексики, отражает колебания розничных цен в рамках цен на товары и услуги, формирующих потребительскую корзину (без учета налогов и энергоносителей). Покупательная способность мексиканского песо снижается под воздействием инфляции. CPI - это ключевой индикатор инфляции, поскольку используется Центробанком для установления уровня процентных ставок. В целом высокое значение является позитивным (или бычьим) для мексиканского песо, а низкое - негативным (или медвежьим). Исторические данные График Таблица 14:00 MEX 14:00 Инфляция за 1-ю половину месяца (декабрь) 0.77 0.42 % 0,77% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,42% Фактическое значение Инфляция за 1-ую половину месяца, публикуемая Банком Мексики, отражает колебания розничных цен в рамках цен на товары и услуги, формирующих потребительскую корзину. Покупательная способность мексиканского песо снижается под воздействием инфляции. CPI - это ключевой индикатор инфляции, поскольку используется Центробанком для установления уровня процентных ставок. В целом высокое значение является позитивным (или бычьим) для мексиканского песо, а низкое - негативным (или медвежьим). Исторические данные График Таблица 14:00 USA 14:00 Индекс цен на жилье (м/м) (октябрь) 0.6 0.4 % 0,60% Прошлое значение - Прогноз 0,40% Фактическое значение Индекс изменения цен на жилые здания и помещения публикуется Управлением ФРС США по надзору за жилищным сектором. Характеризует динамику рынка жилья, который является важной частью американской экономики. Высокий результат укрепляет USD, низкий -ослабляет.Официальный отчет(www.fhfa.gov) Исторические данные График Таблица 15:00 USA 15:00 Расходы на личное потребление - Базовый ценовой индекс (г/г) (ноябрь) 1.7 1.6 % 1,70% Прошлое значение -

20 декабря 2016, 14:33

S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop

It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as has been the case for the past few weeks, US traders walk in with futures higher, propelled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the dollar rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to a series of geopolitical shocks following terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the Bank of Japan maintained its stimulus plan even as the central bank touted improving economic prospects for the Japanese economy. "There was no particular surprise from the policy meeting, but investors are happy that the economy's fundamentals are finally rising after the BOJ expressed an upbeat view," said Takuya Takahashi, a strategist at Daiwa Securities. In an amusing interlude during today's Kuroda press conference, in which the BOJ head said the BOJ is far from its target, Kuroda said that the BOJ continues to target 10 Year yield at "about 0%" and then added that it is meaningless to try to discuss "what about 0%" is, hinting to markets that as long as US yields keep rising, the Yen will keep falling. European shares were steady with unease over the attacks balanced by gains by bank shares and the Milan market after Italy's government said it wanted approval for up to €20 billion to rescue troubled lenders. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1% to 360, pushed higher by deal activity in media and credit card services. Treasuries and gold reversed gains from Monday following a probable terror attack in Berlin, while Turkey’s lira pared losses sustained after the killing of Russia’s envoy to the country. The yen approached the weakest since February, rising above 118 versus the dollar after the central bank closed a tumultuous year for monetary policy by keeping its yield-curve and asset-purchase programs unchanged. The dollar and rising bond yields again dominated, after Janet Yellen flagged the strength of the U.S. jobs market in a speech to students on Monday. That sent the greenback bouncing towards last week's 14-year high and it was at 103.40 on the index that measures it against other leading currencies, just short of its recent peak of 103.56. "The biggest impact you see from the attacks in Berlin and Istanbul is the Swiss franc/euro," said Societe Generale FX strategist Alvin Tan. "But apart from that the dollar continues to be strong after we had some rather positive comments from Janet Yellen," China's CSI 300 index slid 0.6 percent, on Beijing's move to tighten supervision of shadow banking activities and on liquidity concerns, while Japan's Nikkei .N225 closed up 0.5 percent after the BOJ meeting.  U.S. stock-index futures were also fractionally higher following a rally that sent equities to record levels. S&P 500 futures expiring in March up 0.1 percent to 2,263 at 6:03 a.m. in New York, while those on the Dow rise 24 points to 19,861. VIX dropped for fourth day, set for lowest close since August. Energy markets were trading at session highs, with Brent rising above $55/bbl before U.S. stockpiles data due Tuesday, Wednesday. DOE inventories data to be published on Wednesday are forecast to show 5th week of reductions. January WTI near $52/bbl before expiry.  “We’re moving sideways as a whole, liquidity is lower at the moment,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS in Zurich. “It’s range-trading still.” The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasuries climbed four basis points to 2.58 percent, while gold slid 0.5 percent. The most notable feature of overnight trading, according to Bloomberg, is the remarkable immunity demonstrated by markets to terror incidents this year, with initial knee-jerk reactions to buy haven assets after attacks fading quickly. “The market response to each new terror event is less and less pronounced,” said Mike van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets. The move in European stocks “confirms ever-thickening investor skin.” That said, with trading volumes decreasing before December holidays and year-end, investors may be loath to veer too far from the underlying market trends that have prevailed since the election of Donald Trump in November, namely favoring stocks and shunning bonds. Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk In a similar fashion to yesterday, European equities trade with little in the way of firm direction as newsflow remains light after the BoJ kept policy on hold Very quiet in the FX markets today, but the USD has received yet another push as North American players responded to comments from Fed chair Yellen Looking ahead, highlights include Turkish Rate Decision, Fonterra GDT auction as well as earnings from Nike and General Mills Markets Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2263 Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.1% to 360.0 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.5% to 135.27 Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 19,494.53 US 10Yr yield up 4 bps to 2.58% Dollar index up 0.2% to 103.38 WTI oil futures up 0.1% to $52.17/bbl Brent crude up 0.1% to $54.99/bbl Gold spot down 0.4% to $1133.69/oz German 10yr yield up 3bps to 0.28% Portuguese 10yr yield up 5bps to 3.81% Italian 10yr yield up 6bps to 1.88% iTraxx Main down 0.3bps to 70.88 iTraxx Crossover up 0.5bps to 290.36 Euro spot down 0.17% to 1.0384 Yen spot -0.7% to 117.90 Copper down 0.06% to $5492/MT Looking at Asian stocks, markets traded mixed despite a positive lead from Wall St where telecoms outperformed and sentiment was supported by hopes a Santa rally would push the Dow above 20,000. ASX 200 (+0.5%) took the impetus from US and was underpinned higher by miners after gold recouped some of the 2% declines it suffered last week. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) shrugged-off early cautiousness as a weaker JPY post-BoJ kept the index afloat, while Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.5%) traded subdued as a firm CNY 250b1n liquidity injection by the PBoC was overshadowed by reports that China may tighten licensing procedures for insurance firms and could also increase financial and asset requirements for shareholders. 10yr JGBs traded higher with support seen following the BoJ policy decision to maintain the 10yr JGB yield target at around 0% as this raises speculation the BoJ could continue restricting rapid advances in yields as seen last week. However, prices then pulled back, while the yield curve also steepened amid underperformance in the super-long end. The BOJ kept its bank rate unchanged at -0.1% as expected and maintained its target for the 10yr JGB yield at around 0%. The decision to maintain policy was conducted by 7-2 vote with Sato and Kiuchi as the dissenters, while the BoJ also raised its economic assessment for the 1st time in 18 months as it stated that the economy is likely to turn to a moderate expansion. RBA minutes from December 6th meeting stated that reducing rates further could carry risks for debt that outweighed any economic benefit but also added that domestic data has not been that encouraging. In Europe, equities continue to trade flat on the session with muted price action across the board. On a sector specific basis, defensive sectors outperform in the form of Healthcare names while materials are the notable laggards. Mediaset (17%) continue their recent ramp, with Vivendi continuing to grow their stake in the Co. and stating they are looking to increase to 30%. Fixed income markets have seen similarly muted trade, with bunds marginally lower on the day, however remaining above the 163.00 level. Periphery spreads are marginally wider against the German benchmark for the most part amid the thin liquidity, with Italy continuing to remain in focus after the government took the first step for a bailout of their banking system. In currencies, FX markets are very quiet but the USD has received yet another push as North American players responded to comments from Fed chair Yellen on the strength of the US labour market. USD/JPY has recovered back onto a 118.00 handle, but along with EUR/USD under 1.0400, we are seeing a severe lack of momentum in the market. This is not deterring USD bulls, who remain vulnerable to a short squeeze, but against GBP, we are seeing another push on the mid 1.2300's as EUR/GBP gets a fresh bid through .8400. Into year end, we have to expect some Euro based buying here. The commodity currencies are also under pressure against the greenback, with AUD looking to .7200, NZD sub .6900 and USD/CAD shaping up for a retest on the resilient 1.3500-1.3600 area. Only one trade in town at the moment and that is to buy USD dips, but proving strained at the present time despite the offered tone in USTs. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we kicked off with German November PPI data came in at 0.1%, hotter than the -0.2% expected, and well above the -0.4% print in October. There’s no data due out in the US although later today though we are due to get China’s Conference Board leading economic index for November. It’s fairly quiet away from the data too although it’ll be worth keeping an eye on events in the UK where PM Theresa May is due to be questioned by the House of Commons Liaison Committee about her plans for leaving the EU, amongst other things * *  * DB concludes the overnight wrap Sadly our final recap of the year is tainted by the sombre events in Germany, Turkey and Switzerland yesterday. The news of the assassination of Russia’s ambassador in Ankara came as Turkey and Russia were striving to rebuild their relationship over the conflict in Syria however the incident will now have the potential to reignite tensions again in the region. Meanwhile in Germany investigations are underway after a truck drove into a number of innocent bystanders at a Christmas market in Berlin. In Zurich three men have also been seriously injured following a shooting in an Islamic centre near the city’s main station. These events come after geopolitical concerns were already coming back into the spotlight following the seizure of a US drone in the South China Sea last week. The biggest impact in markets from the events was in FX where the Turkish Lira (-0.75%) in particular underperformed, along with a number of other EM currencies. The MSCI EM equity index also closed -0.62% and so declining for the fourth consecutive session. In developed markets the feeling was generally cautious but resilient. The Stoxx 600 (-0.12%) closed a touch lower while the S&P 500 (+0.20%) edged slightly higher although unsurprisingly on seasonally thin trading volumes. The most interesting price action continues to be in sovereign bond markets. 10y Bund yields closed 6.9bps lower yesterday at 0.241% and have now moved up or down by at least 3.3bps for each of the last six sessions. 10y Treasury yields also dipped 5.3bps lower to close at 2.539%. While there was some suggestion that the moves reflected safe haven flows it appears that the blame was more last minute position clearing into year-end than anything else. Before we go any further, this morning in Asia the focus has turned over to the BoJ meeting outcome. As expected there were no last minute holiday season surprises with the various policy measures all kept as is. Significantly, that also means that the BoJ will continue with its yield curve control policy which means targeting 10y JGB yields around zero percent. Where the BoJ was a bit more upbeat however was on its assessment of the economy. The BoJ now expects Japan’s economy to “turn to a moderate expansion” following a pickup in exports, improved domestic demand and business sentiment. Inflation forecasts are however expected to continue to be benign while the BoJ also pointed towards the risks to the outlook as including developments in EM and commodity exporting economics, developments in the US economy, Brexit and geopolitical risks. Governor Kuroda is scheduled to speak just after we go to print. The Yen has weakened -0.40% following that while Japanese equity markets have rebounded following early modest losses. The Nikkei and Topix are currently +0.46% and +0.14% respectively. 10y JGB yields are also 0.6bps lower at 0.061% after touching a high of 0.090% last week. As we’ve highlighted a few times, it’ll be interesting to see how much the yield cap gets tested by the market next year. Elsewhere in Asia it’s a bit more mixed. The Hang Seng (-0.32%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.52%) are both in the red although the Kospi (+0.23%) and ASX (+0.43%) have both edged higher. US equity index futures are little changed meanwhile along with Gold and most of the commodity complex. Moving on. The Italian banking sector was also back in the spotlight again yesterday following the news that the Italian government has asked Parliament to authorise up to €20bn through increasing public debt to rescue the nation’s ailing banks. Expect this story to rumble on today. Elsewhere, Fed Chair Yellen also spoke yesterday at the University of Baltimore. However, as we were expecting there wasn’t a huge amount of new information. Speaking primarily on the labour market, Yellen said that “after years of a slow economic recovery, you are entering the strongest job market in nearly a decade” and that “there are also indicators that wage growth is picking up, and weekly earnings for younger workers have made strong gains over the past couple of years”. There was also a bit of data to highlight yesterday. In the US we got the flash services PMI for December which came in weaker than expected at 53.4 (vs. 55.2 expected and 54.6 in the month prior). Combined with the manufacturing print from last week, that leaves the flash composite reading at 53.7 which is down 1.2pts from November. Elsewhere, in Germany the December IFO business climate index printed at 111.0 (vs. 110.6 expected) which is up 0.6pts from last month. The current assessment reading was reported as rising 1pt to 116.6 while the expectations component was little changed around 105.6. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’re kicking off in Germany where the November PPI data will be released followed thereafter by the UK’s CBI distributive trends survey for this month. There’s no data due out in the US although later this afternoon we are due to get China’s Conference Board leading economic index for November. It’s fairly quiet away from the data too although it’ll be worth keeping an eye on events in the UK where PM Theresa May is due to be questioned by the House of Commons Liaison Committee about her plans for leaving the EU, amongst other things.

19 декабря 2016, 17:01

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention. While the calendar gets quieter in the weeks ahead over the holiday season, there are a few notable macro events to keep traders occupied. This week, the Bank of Japan and Riksbank deliver their latest policy verdicts, and we also get the RBA Minutes, while in the first week of the new year attention turns to FOMC Minutes and NFP, as well as Eurozone inflation. BoJ: Maintaining status quo Consensus expects the BoJ to maintain the status quo, keeping the short rate and JGB 10yr yield target unchanged. The MPM will be watched for clues whether the BoJ still envisions the yield curve as it did in Sep. We expect the governor to quash expectations of an early rate hike, reiterating that the BoJ is prepared to pledge to use fixed-rate operations as needed, with unlimited capacity for purchases. Riksbank: QE extension but no rate cut Rates are expected to remain on hold with a small extension of QE of SEK20-30bn in nominal and real bonds. There are limited options left in the monetary policy toolbox, and diminishing returns to even more easing, suggesting that further QE may function more as a tool to prevent excessive strength rather than as a path to further SEK weakness. In other data In the US, the main releases this week include existing and new home sales, the final print of Q3 GDP, personal income & spending as well as U. of Michigan sentiment data. After the Christmas break, we get pending home sales, consumer confidence, ISM and trade balance in addition to the FOMC Minutes and NFP.  In the Eurozone, a quiet calendar ahead. In the first week of 2017, we get December inflation data and final PMIs.  A light UK calendar, with public finances data, the final print of Q3 GDP and current account balance this week. We start 2017 with PMIs and the latest Gilt purchase data. In Japan, focus will be on the BoJ, but we also get minutes, labor market data, CPI, industrial production and retail sales in the coming weeks. * * * A breakdown of global events on a daily basis, courtesy of Deutsche Bank: The sole release in Europe this morning comes from Germany where the December IFO survey will be released. This afternoon in the US the only data of note are the remaining December flash PMI’s (services and composite readings). Tomorrow morning we kick off in Japan with the BoJ decision followed just after by Governor Kuroda’s press conference. Over in Europe we start with Germany again with the latest PPI print while in the UK the latest CBI reported retail sales data for this month will be out. There’s nothing of note in the US tomorrow afternoon. Wednesday is another quiet day with France PPI, UK public sector net borrowing data, Euro area consumer confidence and US existing home sales data due up. We’ll finally get a bit of action on Thursday. While the morning session is quiet, with Germany’s import price index reading the only data, during the afternoon in the US we’ll get the third reading for Q3 GDP along with a first look at the November durable and capital goods orders data. Also due out will be the November personal income and spending reports, core and deflator PCE readings, initial jobless claims, FHFA house price index, Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey and the Conference Board’s leading index. We close out the week in Asia on Friday with the MNI business indicator in China. During the European session we’ll get consumer confidence data in Germany along with the final UK and France Q3 GDP revisions. We finish the week in the US on Friday with new home sales data and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. * * * Courtesy of Goldman, here is a US focused breakdown, with full consensus estimates: Monday, December 19 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, December preliminary (consensus 55.2, last 54.6) 1:30 PM Federal Reserve Chair Yellen Speaks (FOMC Voter): Federal Reserve Chair Yellen will address the University of Baltimore Commencement on the subject of “The State of the Job Market.” In her FOMC press conference last Wednesday (12/14), Yellen referenced the possibility of “some additional slack in labor markets,” but judged that the overall degree of slack “has diminished,” with broader measures such as the U6 having “come down considerably.” Indeed, she compared the current state of the labor market to that of 2007, which she characterized as “in the vicinity of maximum employment.” The text of the speech is expected to be published online, but there will be no audience/media Q&A. Tuesday, December 20 No major data releases. Wednesday, December 21 10:00 AM Existing home sales, November (GS -0.5%, consensus -1.8%, last +2.0%): Regional housing data released so far suggest a sharp acceleration in closed homes sales in November. However, most of this expected strength is attributable to a favorable calendar shift that the NAR seasonal factors should anticipate (one extra selling day in November and one fewer selling day in October). On a seasonally adjusted basis, we therefore expect a modest decline of -0.5% (mom) following last month’s 2.0% increase. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Thursday, December 22 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, November preliminary (GS -3.0%, consensus -4.5%, last +4.6%):  Durable goods orders ex-transportation, November preliminary (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last +0.8%); Core capital goods orders, November preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.2%); Core capital goods shipments, November preliminary (GS flat, consensus n.a., last -0.1%): We expect durable goods orders to fall 3.0%, primarily due to retrenchment in commercial aircraft orders following an above-trend reading in October. We expect core capital goods orders to increase 0.5% based on resilience in manufacturing surveys and encouraging commentary from industrial firms. However, November industrial production of business equipment softened at -0.3% mom, so we expect a flat reading for core capital goods shipments. Finally, we expect unchanged durable goods orders ex-transportation, weighed down by a stronger dollar and falling durable goods prices. Over the last year, core capital goods orders declined by 4.3%, while core capital goods shipments declined by 5.0%. 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q3 (GS +3.2%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.2%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +2.8%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%); The BEA on Thursday will publish the third vintage of Q3 GDP, which we expect to remain at +3.2%. Consensus expects a modest 0.1pp upward revision to 3.3%. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 17 (GS 255k, consensus 259k, last 254k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended December 10 (consensus 2,010k, last 2,018k); We expect initial jobless claims to remain essentially flat at 255k after 254k last week. Initial claims can be difficult to seasonally adjust around this time of the year, and we see the underlying trend in recent claims reports as fairly stable, reflecting a subdued pace of layoff activity. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, October (consensus +0.4%, last +0.6%): Consensus expects a 0.4% gain in the FHFA house price index in October, which has risen 6.1% over the past year. FHFA home prices increased 0.6% in September, in line with consensus expectations. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. 10:00 AM Personal income, November (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Personal spending, November (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PCE price index, November (GS +0.05%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.24%); Core PCE price index, November (GS +0.05%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.11%); PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.2%); Core PCE price index (yoy), November (GS +1.8%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% and personal spending to rise by 0.3% in November. Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we expect core PCE prices to increase by 0.05% in November, or 1.7% from a year ago; we believe risks to this estimate are skewed to the downside. In the November report, core CPI increased by 0.15% month-over-month, or 2.1% from a year ago. Continued relatively moderate inflation readings may temper concerns that Fed policy has fallen behind the curve. 10:00 AM Leading indicators, November (consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%) 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, December (consensus 1, last 1) Friday, December 23 SIFMA recommends an early 2:00 PM close to bond markets. 10:00 AM New home sales, November (GS +3.0%, consensus 2.1%, last -1.9%): We expect new home sales to rise 3% in November, driven by unseasonably warm weather and a favorable fundamental backdrop. New home sales are highly volatile on a month-to-month basis. While headline housing starts and building permits fell sharply in November, the single-family components remained relatively stable, consistent with continued improvement in homebuilder activity. We plan to closely monitor housing releases in the coming months for signs that higher interest and mortgage rates are constraining home sales, which could in turn affect the outlook for residential fixed investment. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December final (GS 98.5, consensus 98.0, last 98.0): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to increase further to 98.5 in the December final estimate, following a 4.2pt improvement in the preliminary reading. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to a new cyclical high in the November report. Source: DB, BofA, GS

16 декабря 2016, 09:30

Главный экономист РБА, Люси Эллис: Основная задача РБА - избегание рецессий

В своем недавнем интервью главный экономист РБА, Люси Эллис заявила, что основная задача РБА - избегание рецессий. Госпожа Эллис напомнила о том, что события последних лет четко продемонстрировали, что экономический спад может иметь долгосрочные негативные последствия для рынка труда. В то же время, экономист отказалась комментировать возможность того, что экономика Австралии во втором квартале может снова сократиться. Как понимаем, сейчас Резервный банк Австралии старается не говорить о рецессии в стране. Также Люси Эллис сослалась на медленное восстановление в США, подчеркнув, что во всем мире экономические спады становятся все более затяжными и сложными с точки зрения восстановления количества рабочие мест. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

13 декабря 2016, 17:30

Applied Material, Express, Las Vegas Sands, Northrup Grumman and Billiton highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

Applied Material, Express, Las Vegas Sands, Northrup Grumman and Billiton highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

12 декабря 2016, 16:47

Time to Play Rates Tit-for-Tat: Global Week Ahead

Central banks dominate the trader game. Watch with care. No matter the geography, USA policy rates lead others inside this tit-for-tat central bank matrix.

08 декабря 2016, 00:08

Will Downbeat Australian GDP Data Pull These ETFs Down?

The Australian economy has contracted for the first time in the last five year.

07 декабря 2016, 19:01

Foreigners pile back into Australian property

AUSTRALIA’S “spring-selling” real estate season is seeing a defiant return of Chinese buyers, undaunted by lending restrictions aimed at curbing their interest in the country’s sky-rocketing housing market. Financiers

07 декабря 2016, 14:35

Longest Winning Streak For Global Stocks Since September On Monte Paschi Bailout Hopes, ECB Optimism

Global stocks extended the longest winning streak since September, with Asia up 0.8% and Europe rising 0.7% while bonds and credit markets strengthened amid hopes that the European Central Bank will prolong quantitative easing, while optimism an Italian bailout of Monte Paschi will prevent European bank contagion, has pushed European financial stocks higher. US equity futures were little changed. A note from Goldman's David Kostin overnight perhaps summarized it best: "Large-cap fund managers embrace Hope over Fear." For now hope is certainly in the driver's seat, leading European equities higher for a third day, with the Bloomberg World Banks Index trading at the highest level in more than a year. Bonds rose across the euro area, with the yield on the benchmark German bund falling from the highest in almost three weeks, while perceived investment-grade credit risk fell for a seventh day, the longest run since May. The pound fell after an unexpected decline in manufacturing output. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.7% as of 10:46 a.m. in London as mining companies and banks rallied. Credit Suisse AG gained 8 percent, while Banca Monte Paschi rose 7.1 percent after La Stampa reported Italy will ask for a 15 billion euro ESM loan for the lender, among other banks. Investors' concerns were that a defeat for Renzi in a referendum on constitutional reforms could further undermine faith in the European Union - following Britain's decision to quit the bloc - as well as confidence in the euro currency. Market reaction to Renzi's defeat and his resignations was relatively muted, partly as a consequence of a pledge by the ECB to buy Italian government debt if markets became unsettled. "Despite the fact that the probability of early elections has risen, the market is focusing on the banking sector and the fact the government seems to be showing more urgency in dealing with that problem," Mizuho strategist Antoine Bouvet said. "People had gone into the referendum with a very pessimistic view and I think the last five years have taught us that, as far as the euro is concerned, political issues often don't have a lasting impact," DZ Bank currency analyst Sonja Marten said. Ahead of tomorrow's ECB announcement (previewed here), investors are positioned for an extension of monthly asset purchases of 80 billion euros ($86 billion) past March even as uncertainty lingers that Draghi may inject an element of hawkishness and hint at tapering or even ending QE at some point in the future. With overnight volatility on the euro at the highest since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in June, traders are hedging bets that ECB President Mario Draghi will carry on with accommodative policies. Last year he defied weeks of anticipation for more support with underwhelming stimulus that sent bond yields and the euro surging. “The base expectation is that we are going to get an extension of the stimulus program by another six to nine months,” said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “Broad sentiment is starting to turn around -- we are getting some repositioning for a better 2017 in terms of growth.” Japan’s Topix index gained 0.9% in Tokyo as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed after the measure posted a 0.3% advance on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 percent to close at another record. Brent and WTI rose after the Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin personally agreed to output cuts with the nation’s oil companies. Brent above $54/bbl, WTI above $51/bbl.  “The headlines that Putin personally agreed to the oil output cut sent prices higher,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “This adds to the pressure on OPEC to deliver their own cuts.” “The market is taking that at face value and looking for at least half of the 600k b/d non-OPEC cut to be assured.” The one-minute trading volume in WTI hit day-high >1,900 lots at 9:17am London time, shortly after Russia headlines. One of the biggest movers in the currency markets was the Australian dollar, down 0.4 percent after data showed the Australian economy shrank by 0.5 percent, its biggest contraction since 2008, in the third quarter. Australian stocks, however, closed 0.9 percent higher in anticipation of more fiscal and monetary stimulus. While rate futures imply scant chance of a Reserve Bank interest rate cut in the coming months, prospects of a hike vanished. China's foreign exchange reserves fell by more than expected last month to $3.05 trillion, their lowest since 2011, the central bank said. The yuan currency last stood at 6.8850 to the dollar compared to a mid-point of 6.8808 set by the central bank. The currency is down 5 percent so far this year. In rates, Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell two basis points to 0.34 percent, after climbing to 0.38 percent, the highest since Nov. 14. The government plans to sell 3 billion euros of 2018 securities. Italian sovereign debt securities due in a decade advanced for a second day, almost erasing losses suffered in the aftermath of Sunday’s referendum. The nation’s 10-year bond yield fell four basis points to 1.91 percent, adding to a four-basis point drop from Tuesday. Portugal’s 10-year bond yield reached the lowest level since Nov. 15. Treasury 10-year note yields were little changed at 2.37 percent. The Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps on investment-grade companies dropped one basis point to 74 basis points, the lowest since Nov. 9. A gauge of swaps on junk-rated companies fell to a three-month low. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up less than 0.1% to 2211 Stoxx 600 up 0.7% to 347 FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 6742 DAX up 0.1% to 10698 German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.34% Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.92% Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.5% S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 389.6 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 136 Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 18361 Hang Seng up 0.8% to 22675 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3200 S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5429 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.38% Dollar Indexunchanged at 100.09 WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $51.59 Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $54.91 Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,172 Silver spot up 0.4% to $16.82 Global Headlines Credit Suisse Steps Up Cost Cuts as Revenue Eludes CEO Thiam: Lowers target for operating costs by 1 billion francs Linde Chairman Said to Pitch Praxair Merger Plan to Board: Jobs in Germany said part of deliberations about Praxair plan JPMorgan, HSBC, Credit Agricole Fined $521 Million Over Euribor: Banks fined by the European Commission for rigging the Euribor benchmark Shell and Total Said to Sign Initial Oil Deals With Iran: Deals for S. Azadegan, Yadavaran, Kish fields, oil official says Lilly Threatens Sanofi’s Dominance in Insulin With Knockoff Drug: Novo sees U.S. drugmaker as its ‘most formidable’ rival ahead Blackstone to Buy Solvay’s Acetow Business for $1.1 Billion: Buyout firm agreed to pay about seven times earnings for a business supplying materials for cigarette filters Western Digital in Samsung License Deal, Boosts 2Q Forecast: CFO Mark Long spoke in analyst day presentation FirstEnergy Seeks to Sell $885 Million Worth of Power Plants: AE Supply unit looking to sell gas-fired, hydro power plants Exxon Sees 175 Million Ton LNG Shortage by 2030 Without Spending: Financing challenges seen for new LNG developments Pfizer, Flynn Fined Record $113 Million Over Epilepsy Drug: U.K. CMA imposes record fines for abusing dominant position Asian stocks markets traded mostly higher following a positive lead from Wall St where strength in financials and telecoms underpinned sentiment and resulted in the Dow posting a second consecutive record close. ASX 200 (+0.9%) outperformed despite a poor GDP release as the recent slew of weak data keeps prospects of future easing alive, while Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) was also higher led by SoftBank shares after reports it is to invest USD 50bIn in the US and create 50,000 US jobs. Markets in China conformed to the tone, although upside in the Shanghai Comp (+0.7%) was capped after the PBoC conducted a poor liquidity operation for the third consecutive day, while Jakarta stock markets were negative after Indonesia was hit by a magnitude 6.5 earthquake. 10yr JGBs traded with marginal gains despite the mostly heightened risk appetite in the region, as the BoJ were present in the market for over JPY 1.3trl under its bond buying program, while participants also digested unwaveringly dovish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata. PBoC injected CNY 30bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set the mid-point at 6.8808 (Prey. 6.8575). BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata stated that the BoJ will continue to expand monetary base, while he also added that they will not hesitate to take further measures if required and that yield control can only be achieved by large JGB buying by the central bank. Asian Top News Hong Kong Faces Housing Risks as Fed Tightening Looms, IMF Says: Stretched property valuations mean Hong Kong’s economy is vulnerable if interest rates rise faster than expected Investors Lose 99% as Hong Kong Rights Offerings Go Badly Wrong: Repeat rights issuers under scrutiny as bourse link expands RBA Will Look Through Australia’s Economic Shocker, Traders Bet: Swaps still see more than 75% chance RBA on hold through 2017 Chinese Regulators Fined Medtronic $17 Million for Price- Fixing: Penalties for fixing prices with dealers extending to 2014 Jho Low Family Digs in to Stop 1MDB Asset Seizure by U.S.: Relatives seek to replace trustees who refused to fight U.S. Soros Alumnus Shiozumi Says Bears on Abenomics Have It All Wrong: Shiozumi, T. Rowe Price’s Ciganer see Japan stock rally European stocks trade in positive territory this morning (Euro Stox: +1.2%) as Santa gives an early Christmas present to Banca Monte Paschi (+7.9%) in the form of source reports of the state taking a controlling stake in the Co. for EUR 2bIn as soon as this weekend. As such, the Italian bellwether lifted sentiment for financials across the continent. Material names were also among the best performers, while energy names outperformed amid positive reports suggesting Russia could be on board with the OPEC production cuts. Elsewhere, fixed income markets remain relatively muted, with the German 10Y continuing to hover just above the 160 level and trading in a tight range throughout the morning. European Top News •    Ahold Delhaize Plans $1.1 Billion Buyback as Cash Piles Up: Europe’s top retailer forecasts 23% increase in free cash flow•    PostNL Rejects New Bpost Takeover Bid on Governance Concerns: Belgian state’s role prompted Dutch authorities’ objections•    U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Drops Most in Eight Months: Total production falls, led by oil and gas extraction In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed. The pound dropped 0.6 percent to $1.2597 after industrial production in October fell 1.3 percent, driven by a slide in oil and gas extraction. The euro was little changed at $1.0726 after posting a 0.4 percent drop on Tuesday. Overnight volatility in the common currency versus its U.S. counterpart jumped to 23 percent, the most since June 23, based on closing prices. The Australian dollar traded as low as 74.17 U.S. cents before paring its drop to 0.1% after the statistics bureau said third-quarter gross domestic product decreased 0.5 percent from the prior quarter, the first contraction since 2011. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In commodities, oil traded near $51 a barrel amid speculation a production boost from U.S. shale producers will counter the first output cuts from OPEC in eight years. Copper gained 0.6%, recouping an earlier decline. Steel rebar in China climbed with iron ore to the highest in more than two years, as reports of a crackdown on illegal plants spurred speculation that the government is stepping up supply-side reforms. Spot gold was little changed at $1,171.62 an ounce. Looking at the day ahead, we got the October industrial and manufacturing production reports for the UK, which both missed sharply printing -1.1% and -0.4% YoY, on expectations of a 0.5% and 0.2% rebound respectively. It’s fairly quiet in the US where we'll get the October JOLTS job openings report along with the October consumer credit print. China released November foreign reserves which showed a surprisingly steep drop of $70 billion, the biggest since January. We’ll also get central bank decisions today from the Reserve Bank of India, which unexpectedly kept rates unchanged even as it warned the economy would slow down. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Dec. 2 (prior -9.4%) 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, Oct. est. 5.50m (prior 5.486m) 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories 3pm: Consumer Credit, Oct., est. $18.650b (prior $19.292b) DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Although there is little uncertainty in the alpine weather forecast this morning, I must admit to being quite confused by financial markets this week. In our 2017 credit outlook we suggested that we like European financial over non-financial credit as the outlook has changed markedly since the sector's nadir in late summer where it priced in almost permanent negative yields and flat yield curves. Rising yields and a steeper yield curve partly due to Kuroda's new policy framework helped. President-elect Trump has since given this trade a further boost with additional hopes on easier regulation ahead. However we've been struggling with reconciling our optimistic view with our thoughts that a 'no' was likely in the Italian referendum and a period of turbulence possible for the sector given the country's banking sector problems. We thought it would be more difficult to solve them quickly and safely with a 'no'. However we decided to ride out this expected volatility and take any near-term stresses and losses that this would entail. Given yesterday's price action we needn't have even bothered getting stressed as European financials saw a remarkable day in spite of (or perhaps strangely because of) the speculation of imminent government intervention in the sector that might be necessary after the 'no' vote. Indeed the Stoxx 600 Banks index rallied to the tune of +5.61% yesterday for its biggest one-day gain since April. The main driver was that remarkable rebound for Italian Banks. Unicredit (+12.81%), Mediobanca (+9.94%), Unione di Banche Italiane (+9.70%), Banco Popolare di Milano (+9.03%), and Intesa Sanpaolo (+8.16%) all more than wiping out the previous day losses. With those moves the FTSE Italia All-Share Banks index rallied +8.97% and had its best day since July while the FTSE MIB closed up +4.15%. That compares to gains of +0.97% for the Stoxx 600 and +0.34% for the S&P 500. It was much the same in credit markets. While the iTraxx Main index tightened an impressive 4bps, more eye catching were the moves for the iTraxx Senior and Sub Financials indices which ended the day 7bps and 7.5bps tighter respectively. Within the Sub-Fins constituents, spreads for Unicredit, Generali, Intesa and Mediobanca were 18bps, 16bps, 15bps and 7bps tighter respectively. There was a similar outperformance for BTP’s too where 10y yields ended the day just over 4bps lower at 1.940% which compared to a move of 4bps higher for 10y Bund yields. US Treasury yields on the other hand were little changed around 2.389%. Although the above suits our sector view I'm still scratching my head this morning explaining the strength of the move given the week's news. All help very welcome with aggressively short covering perhaps a big catalyst. For now then the political focus in Italy turns over to the elections and as DB’s Marco Stringa summarised yesterday in his report, the key question is not ‘when’ Italy goes to elections but ‘how’. In other words which electoral law. Since the weekend this has now become a focal point for investors and yesterday’s report from Marco has helped to summarise some of the key Q&A’s on the more specific details of the process. Away from all things Italy related there was an important development to note on the Brexit front last night. Yesterday PM May accepted a Labour Party motion which will be debated in the House of Commons today, calling on the government to publish its plans for the leaving the EU prior to triggering Article 50. According to the BBC as many as 40 Tories were said to be prepared to support the Labour Party in demanding more parliamentary scrutiny of the government’s plans. One to watch. To the latest in Asia now where for the most part bourses in Asia have strengthened and so following the generally positive sentiment over the last 24 hours. Indeed when will we start to hear talk of a Santa Claus rally? The Nikkei (+0.54%), Hang Seng (+0.35%), Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) and ASX (+0.87%) in particular are all firmer although the Kospi (-0.10%) is a touch weaker. Those moves have come despite WTI Oil retreating a further -0.65% this morning which follows the -1.66% decline yesterday and the first down day since the OPEC meeting last week. Meanwhile in FX markets the Aussie Dollar has weakened close to half a percent following a much weaker than expected Q3 GDP print (-0.5% qoq vs. -0.1% expected). In fact it was the first negative quarterly contraction since 2011 and the joint worst since 2008. Moving on. Just as you might have expected primary issuance to slow down into year end, it was interesting to note the relatively busy day for issuance in the HY energy space yesterday. Indeed Chesapeake, Matador Resources, Rowan Companies and Parsley Energy priced deals after Cheniere Energy had priced a decent sized deal on Monday. The timing follows a decent rally in spreads following the OPEC meeting. Indeed based on DB pricing to the close on Monday, cash spreads for US HY energy are 32bps tighter at 510bps since OPEC. In fact that is now the tightest spread since November 2014 after spreads peaked above 1900bps back in February. Elsewhere, with regards to the data yesterday, in the US the trade deficit was reported as widening to $42.6bn in October from $36.2bn in the month prior. That was as a result of a -1.8% mom drop in exports while imports were reported as rising +1.3% mom. Meanwhile factory orders rose a slightly above market +2.7% mom in October (vs. +2.6% expected) while durable goods orders were revised down to a still strong +4.6% mom from +4.8% in the initial flash estimate. Elsewhere nonfarm productivity was confirmed at +3.1% qoq in Q3 while unit labour costs were revised up to +0.7% qoq from +0.3%. Finally the IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading for December was reported as rising 3.4pts in December to 54.8. That’s actually the highest reading since November 2006. The Atlanta Fed did downgrade their Q4 GDP forecast to 2.6% from 2.9% yesterday although that reflected the employment and auto sales data last week. As far as the data was concerned in Europe, Q3 GDP growth for the Euro area was confirmed at +0.3% qoq although the annual rate was revised up by one tenth to +1.7% yoy which left it unchanged versus Q2. The most eye catching print in Europe yesterday was the October factory orders reading in Germany where orders were reported as rising a bumper +4.9% mom (vs. +0.6% expected) and so helping to raise the YoY rate to +6.3% from +2.9%. That was the largest monthly jump since July 2014 although our European economists did warn that a combination of several factors likely overstates the underlying improvement. This includes a very large workday adjustment, the impact of the Paris autoshow during the month, and a post Brexit recovery. In terms of the day ahead, this morning in Europe the early data comes from Germany where the October industrial production data is due (expected to rise +0.8% mom). Shortly after we’ll get the October trade data out of France before we then get the Halifax house price index data for the UK for last month. We’ll then get the October industrial and manufacturing production reports for the UK where both are expected to have risen +0.2% mom. It’s fairly quiet in the US this afternoon. We’ll get the October JOLTS job openings report along with the October consumer credit print. China is also due to release November foreign reserves data at some stage today. We’ll also get central bank decisions today from the Reserve Bank of India (expected to cut by 25bps) and Bank of Canada (expected to hold).

07 декабря 2016, 10:05

Экономика Австралии сокращается быстрее ожиданий

ВВП Австралии в III квартале 2016 г. сократился на 0,5% по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом, свидетельствуют официальные данные. Спад зафиксирован впервые с января-марта 2011 г.

07 декабря 2016, 00:05

Резервный Банк Австралии оставил основную процентную ставку без изменений

Как и ожидалось, на заседании 6 декабря Комитет по кредитно-денежной политике Резервного Банка Австралии оставил основную процентную ставку без изменений на уровне 1,50%. Вероятно некоторое замедление темпов роста экономике в конце года, за которым последует подъем, сказал после заседания глава РБА  Филип Лоуи. Показатели рынка труда продолжают демонстрировать относительно смешанную картину. Частичная занятость сильно выросла, а рост занятости в целом замедлился. Опережающие индикаторы указывают на продолжение роста занятости в краткосрочном периоде. Инфляция остается достаточно низкой и, учитывая продолжающийся сдержанный рост затрат на оплату труда, будет оставаться на этом уровне некоторое время. Низкие процентные ставки, низкий курс австралийского доллара и наличие возможности у финансовых учреждений выдавать кредиты на оправданные цели способствуют осуществлению необходимых корректировок в экономике, хотя ситуация может осложниться при повышении обменного курса. С учетом имеющейся информации, а также после смягчения кредитно-денежной политики ранее в этом году, сохранение основной процентной ставки на данном заседании соответствует целям по обеспечению устойчивого роста экономики и достижению целевого ориентира по инфляции в долгосрочной перспективе.   Источник: FxTeam

06 декабря 2016, 16:54

EUR/AUD: евро выглядит слабее оззи

  EUR/AUD  Стратегия совершения сделкиНаправление сделкиПродажаВход (цена открытия)1,4370Цель (цена закрытия)1,4305Stop Loss1,4415Горизонтдо 19:00 мск 08.12.2016Фундаментальные основанияПара EUR/AUD может продолжить падение. Многое будет зависеть от поступающей информации.  Сегодня Резервный Банк Австралии принял решение сохранить ставку на уровне 1,5%. В целом, это можно воспринимать как сигнал того, что в целом регулятор пока не видит достаточно угроз для экономики, чтобы проводить смягчение монетарной политики. Если еще и завтра данные по ВВП за 3 квартал выйдут не ниже 3,3% (что будет соответствовать росту во 2 квартале), оззи получит дополнительный повод для роста.Что касается евро, то у него причин для слабости больше. Во-первых, это итоги референдума в Италии. Страна стоит на пороге большой политической неопределенности. Во-вторых, предстоящее 8 декабря заседание ЕЦБ. Со стороны европейского регулятора не исключают мер дополнительного стимулирования, что вряд ли пойдет на пользу евро.     Технические основания В районе уровня 1,4370 цены сформировали поддержку. Если этот уровень будет преодолен, активность продавцов может усилиться, что приведет к ускорению снижения пары.  Тем более, что уровень совпадает с 50-интервальной скользящей средней.Рекомендации по управлению капиталом в сделке При депозите $500 необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на продажу пары EUR/AUD со следующими параметрами:В случае, если ваш депозит отличается в большую сторону от 500$, необходимо пропорционально увеличить размер сделки в Libertex. Мультипликатор при этом остается неизменным.В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток по сделке не составит более 5% от размера Вашего депозита. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.  *В случае, если в течение указанного периода ордер открылся, но не были достигнуты цель take-profit или stop-loss, рекомендуем закрыть позицию по рынку в 19.00 мск в последний торговый день срока действия сигнала. Открывать позицию не позднее 08.12.2016 10:00 мск.  Источник: ГК Forex Club: https://www.fxclub.org/markets-data/reviews/euraud-ievro-vyghliadit-slabieie-ozzi/

06 декабря 2016, 16:54

EUR/AUD: евро выглядит слабее оззи

  EUR/AUD  Стратегия совершения сделкиНаправление сделкиПродажаВход (цена открытия)1,4370Цель (цена закрытия)1,4305Stop Loss1,4415Горизонтдо 19:00 мск 08.12.2016Фундаментальные основанияПара EUR/AUD может продолжить падение. Многое будет зависеть от поступающей информации.  Сегодня Резервный Банк Австралии принял решение сохранить ставку на уровне 1,5%. В целом, это можно воспринимать как сигнал того, что в целом регулятор пока не видит достаточно угроз для экономики, чтобы проводить смягчение монетарной политики. Если еще и завтра данные по ВВП за 3 квартал выйдут не ниже 3,3% (что будет соответствовать росту во 2 квартале), оззи получит дополнительный повод для роста.Что касается евро, то у него причин для слабости больше. Во-первых, это итоги референдума в Италии. Страна стоит на пороге большой политической неопределенности. Во-вторых, предстоящее 8 декабря заседание ЕЦБ. Со стороны европейского регулятора не исключают мер дополнительного стимулирования, что вряд ли пойдет на пользу евро.     Технические основания В районе уровня 1,4370 цены сформировали поддержку. Если этот уровень будет преодолен, активность продавцов может усилиться, что приведет к ускорению снижения пары.  Тем более, что уровень совпадает с 50-интервальной скользящей средней.Рекомендации по управлению капиталом в сделке При депозите $500 необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на продажу пары EUR/AUD со следующими параметрами:В случае, если ваш депозит отличается в большую сторону от 500$, необходимо пропорционально увеличить размер сделки в Libertex. Мультипликатор при этом остается неизменным.В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток по сделке не составит более 5% от размера Вашего депозита. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.  *В случае, если в течение указанного периода ордер открылся, но не были достигнуты цель take-profit или stop-loss, рекомендуем закрыть позицию по рынку в 19.00 мск в последний торговый день срока действия сигнала. Открывать позицию не позднее 08.12.2016 10:00 мск.   евро, оззи, форекс клуб, РБА, экономика EURAUD

06 декабря 2016, 16:08

Внимание – на мировые центробанки

В середине декабря в центре внимания будут заседания центральных банков развитых стран. В последние недели в мире на фоне роста цен на нефть (и в некоторой степени, президентства Трампа) в мире выросли инфляционные ожидания, так что риторика регуляторов может несколько измениться. Сегодня старт сезону заседаний дал Резервный Банк Австралии, ожидаемо оставивший ставку на уровне 1,5%. На этой неделе также пройдут заседания Банка Канады (7 декабря), Банка Швейцарии и ЕЦБ (8 декабря). От первых двух сюрпризов не ожидается, так что основной фокус – на ЕЦБ, находящийся сейчас в непростой ситуации. Прошедший в воскресенье референдум в Италии, по итогам которого правительство уйдёт в отставку, привёл к тому, что доходности 10-летних итальянских облигаций выросли до 2 , акции банков продолжают находится под давлением. На этом фоне, возможно, ЕЦБ расширит квоту на покупку итальянских облигаций. В то же время, в текущий ситуации европейский регулятор вряд ли решится на более активные действия - изменение ставки или расширение объёма программы выкупа активов. Наконец, 13-14 декабря пройдёт заседание ФРС США. Эксперты и рынки на 99% уверены, что по его итогам ключевая ставка будет поднята на 0,25%. Более важны комментарии Джаннет Йеллен о состоянии экономики и том, каких темпов подъёма ставки ожидать в дальнейшем. На текущий момент рынки закладывают вероятность 45%, что следующее повышение ставки будет до июля 2017 года.

06 декабря 2016, 14:36

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Dips; US Stock Futures And Dollar Flat

European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session.  Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains, as doubts emerged about how OPEC will implement the first supply curbs in eight years. European bonds gained with stocks. The euro held firm on Tuesday, having seen a wild 3-cent swing in the wake of Italy's referendum, while the region's bond yields dipped in line with U.S. peers as oil saw its first fall for five days. Asian stocks saw their strongest day for 2 weeks overnight after Wall Street's Dow Jones index hit a record high, and Europe's main bourses struggled into positive territory as bumper German data helped settle an early wobble. As concerns about Italy subsided for the time being, Italian bond yields were back below levels seen before Sunday's referendum defeat for the government, while the euro held at $1.0767 having bounced strongly from as low as $1.0505 on Monday, two days ahead of an ECB decision in which Mario Draghi is expected to extend QE by 6 months with little other adjustments.  "The referendum result could put the ECB under pressure not to taper the asset purchase program but to extend it for six months beyond March (in its current form)," ING strategist Benjamin Schroeder said. European shares rose on news that German industrial orders soared at the fastest pace for more than two years, stoking hopes that Europe's largest economy is set for an acceleration in the coming months.  Factories saw demand climb 4.9 percent on the month despite bulk orders being lower than usual, the German economy ministry said. That was the biggest increase since July 2014 and far above the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.6 percent rise.  "The reading was very strong even without large-scale orders and that suggests it's more than just a flash in the pan," BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar said, noting that some firms might have brought orders forward. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3%, adding to its 0.6% advance from Monday. Italy’s FTSE MIB Index gained ground, up 1.3%, helped by gains of more than 3 percent each by UniCredit SpA and Mediobanca SpA. Stoxx 600 energy producers tracked declines in oil prices, which retreated from the highest close in 16 months. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped 0.9 percent.  Financial shares in China weakened again, however, after the country's insurance regulator suspended an unlisted firm from selling some products a day after a warning about "barbaric" share acquisitions by asset managers. In emerging markets, Turkey, where the lira has slumped to record lows in recent weeks, saw a warning from the head of the central bank that the weakness could cause the bank to miss its inflation targets early next year. In Asia, gold nudged off a 10-month low. MSCI's broadest index for the region bounced 0.7 percent, its biggest daily rise since Nov. 22, as Korea climbed 1.4 percent and Japan rose 0.4 percent. The Australian dollar led declines among major economies, falling 0.5 percent to 74.38 U.S. cents, after the nation’s central bank central bank kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In an otherwise quiet session, where E-minis are currently unchanged before Tuesday’s release of factory and durable goods orders, which may confirm the U.S. economy is gaining strength and giving the Federal Reserve more reason to raise interest rates, and after the Dow Average swung back to gains Monday, increasing 0.2 percent to an all-time high, early trader focus was on crude. Ending a 4-day winning streak, oil prices slipped on Tuesday as crude output rose in virtually every major export region despite plans by OPEC and Russia to cut production, triggering fears that a fuel glut that has dogged markets for over two years might last well into 2017. Brent futures were trading at $54.64 per barrel at 0935 GMT, down 30 cents from Monday's close; WTI was at $51.39 a barrel, down 40 cents. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters said the boost from last week's decision by OPEC to cut crude production had faded and the cartel's promise had been undermined by data showing rising production from within its member countries and Russia. "Most of the position adjustments that the OPEC decision forced upon traders have now run their course and it leaves the market exposed to profit taking," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, citing surveys pointing to record production from OPEC during November. "What's troubling is that the rise is coming from African producers, two of which are exempt from cutting production," he said. "The meeting on Saturday between OPEC and non-OPEC producers will be crucial in order to maintain the bullish sentiment seen since last Wednesday." OPEC's oil output set another record high in November, rising to 34.19 million barrels per day (bpd) from 33.82 million bpd in October, according to a Reuters survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources. “It’s a headache for OPEC in terms of increase in production for Libya and Nigeria, definitely that’s a tricky part,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets. “A lot of buying went on following the OPEC decision and now it’s sort of taking it quietly.” In rates, Italy’s 10-year bond yield declined six basis points to 1.93 percent, almost erasing Monday’s increase of eight basis points. Yields on Portugal’s bonds with a similar due date decreased nine basis points to 3.61 percent, while Germany’s rose one basis point to 0.34 percent. Almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the ECB to announce on Thursday that its bond-buying program will be extended after March, and most foresee an extension of about six months at the current 80 billion euros ($85 billion) a month. Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 2.39%. * * * Bulletin Market Summary From RanSquawk European indices are mixed this morning with more news filtering through from the Italian banking sector A much calmer FX market today, but we continue to see Cable pushing higher, with a view to challenging the post Brexit lows seen just under 1.2800 Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and API Crude Oil Inventories Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2205.5 Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 342 FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 6742 DAX up 0.1% to 10698 German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.34% Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.92% Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.5% S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 389.6 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 136 Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 18361 Hang Seng up 0.8% to 22675 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3200 S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5429 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.38% Dollar Index unchanged at 100.09 WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $51.59 Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $54.91 Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,172 Silver spot up 0.4% to $16.82 Top Headlines: Sanofi Said to Mull Counterbid for Actelion Amid J&J Talks: French drugmaker said to work with advisers to weigh options Utilities Entitled to Damages for Germany’s Atomic Exit: German constitutional court issues ruling in landmark case Total, ExxonMobil, Cnooc, Pemex Win Mexico Deep-Water Blocks: Oil majors win blocks in Mexico’s first competitive deep-water oil auction Drugmaker Genfit Said to Explore Options Including a Sale: NASH treatment maker said in talks with other drug companies SoftBank’s Son Said to Plan Meeting With Trump in New York: Japanese tech company had sought to merge Sprint and T- Mobile Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Hike See Path Tied to Fiscal Policies: Fed presidents from New York, Chicago, St. Louis spoke Monday, indicating Fed is close to meeting inflation, job goals South Africa to Allow U.S. GM Corn Imports for First Time: Import clearance comes after worst drought since records began South Korea’s Park Is Willing to Resign in April, Party Says: Opposition lawmakers still pressing for Park’s impeachment United Technologies CEO Says Government Ties Affected Trump Deal: Regulatory, tax reform would benefit company, CEO Hayes says Lookinag at Asian markets, stocks carried on the momentum from Wall St where Dow posted fresh record highs amid strength in tech and financials, while contagion fears in Europe had also dissipated. ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded higher and was led higher by the materials and mining sectors, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was underpinned by financials. Chinese markets were mixed with Hang Seng (+0.8%) outperforming, while Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) lagged following a weak liquidity operation by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded lower amid the heightened risk appetite in the region, with demand also dampened following an enhanced liquidity auction for 20yr, 30yr and 40yr JGBs which drew a lower b/c and wider spreads. RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50% as unanimously expected and stated that maintaining policy is consistent with sustainable economic growth and achieving the inflation target over time. RBA commented that the economy is continuing its transition from the mining investment boom and that some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again. Top Asian News Singapore and Australia Margin Rules to Start in March 2017: Australia has six-month transition period for variation margin ICAP Showing Yuan Tumbling 8.8% Against Dollar Fuels Jitters: CFETS data show onshore spot rate rose amid weakening dollar Samsung’s Lee in Crosshairs as Tycoons Grilled Over Scandal: Tycoons testify in connection with influence-peddling case China’s Robot Boom Raises Yaskawa’s Prospects and Profile: Yaskawa President says he’s rejected several deal offers RBA Holds Key Rate as Commodity Upswing Outweighs Slowdown: Annual growth figures predicted to slow in 3Q Half-Point India Rate Cut Seen by Economist Amid Cash Chaos: Call by IIFL’s Datar is more aggressive than consensus outlook In Europe, indices are slightly higher this morning (EUROSTOXX 50 +0.2%) with more news filtering through from the Italian banking sector, as sources suggest that Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) (-2.2%) board meeting is said to be delayed until Wednesday Or Thursday. Elsewhere, financials are bouncing back after losses seen yesterday, but this did coincide with broker upgrades for HSBC and SocGen. Also in equity markets spreadbetters are taking a hit (IG Group -30%) after FCA look to announce new rules for CFD trading accounts including increased margins and amendments to new customer bonus rules.In fixed income markets, Bunds trade largely flat this morning as participants await the ECB meeting. Today we have also seen outperformance in peripheral yields and some narrowing of the German/French spread following reports of more French government stability as Bernard Cazeneuve named is French PM. Top European News EU Said to Mull Seeking Post-Brexit Deal Before Transition Talk: Consensus forming on bloc’s Brexit position, EU officials say ABN Amro to Sell $20 Billion of Private Banking Assets to LGT: ABN Amro agreed to sell its private-banking assets in Asia and the Middle East to Liechtenstein-based LGT to focus on its European operations Monte Paschi Recapitalization Hangs in Balance After Debt Swap: Troubled lender releases final results of debt conversion, set to decide in coming days whether to proceed with plan In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed after falling 0.4 percent Monday. The euro traded at $1.0773 after ending Monday up 0.9 percent, erasing an earlier slide of as much as 1.5 percent in the wake of the Italian vote. The Australian dollar led declines among major economies, falling 0.5 percent to 74.38 U.S. cents, after the nation’s central bank central bank kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In commodities, oil prices slipped on Tuesday as crude output rose in virtually every major export region despite plans by OPEC and Russia to cut production, triggering fears that a fuel glut that has dogged markets for over two years might last well into 2017. Brent futures were trading at $54.64 per barrel at 0935 GMT, down 30 cents from Monday's close; WTI was at $51.39 a barrel, down 40 cents. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters said the boost from last week's decision by OPEC to cut crude production had faded and the cartel's promise had been undermined by data showing rising production from within its member countries and Russia. "Most of the position adjustments that the OPEC decision forced upon traders have now run their course and it leaves the market exposed to profit taking," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, citing surveys pointing to record production from OPEC during November. "What's troubling is that the rise is coming from African producers, two of which are exempt from cutting production," he said. Aluminum fell 1.2 percent to $1,713 a metric ton, the biggest drop in a week. The metal will probably tumble next month as an “irrational” increase in prices prompts companies to restart plants, while new capacity also ramps up in the world’s largest supplier, according to China’s top metals industry group. Copper lost 1.4 percent and zinc slid 0.7 percent. Looking at the day ahead, the early data out this morning in Europe came from Germany where the October factory orders data was released, and came in an unexpectedly hot 6.3% Y/Y vs Exp. 1.6%, up from 2.9%. The final revisionsto Q3 GDP in the Euro area also came in and as expected, it remained at +0.3% qoq. In the US we’ll get the October trade balance reading, with the final Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data also scheduled for release. Factory orders data for the month of October is also due along with this month’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index reading. Lastly, final durable and capital goods orders revisions for October will be released. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Trade Balance, Oct., est. -$42.0b (prior -$36.4b) 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 3Q F, est. 3.3% (prior 3.1%) 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales 10am: Factory Orders, Oct., est. 2.6% (prior 0.3%) ; Durable Goods Orders, Oct. F, est. 3.4% (prior 4.8%); Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Aircraft, Oct F (prior 0.4%) 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Dec. (est. 51.4) 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Had you known in advance the outcomes of all the three big events of the year (Brexit, US elections and the Italian referendum) would it have helped you make money? It's not obvious that it would, especially if your timing was slightly off. Clearly there are some assets where the impact would have been fairly obvious but the wider markets have been more difficult to second guess. For us the Italy 'no' result was relatively well priced in given the likely immediate ramifications but we still would have expected the jitters for longer than the 2 minutes the European markets took to bottom out yesterday morning. With Italy it's still possible that post the rejection everything stays similar in the government apart from PM Renzi who as we know tendered his resignation yesterday. So the market is giving Italy the benefit of the doubt for now even if there was some underperformance of Italian risk yesterday. Indeed the FTSE MIB initially dropped -2.20% at the open but that fall proved short lived with the index then rebounding and peaking a shade above +1.50% a short time later. Thereafter, the index swung in and out of positive and negative territory before finishing the day down a modest -0.21%. That was in the context of a +0.56% gain for the Stoxx 600 and an impressive +1.63% jump for the DAX. Unsurprisingly much of the focus was on how banks would fare. While the Stoxx 600 banks index closed up a fairly resilient +0.76% there were notable heavy falls for the likes of Banco Popolare di Milano (-7.91%), Banco Popolare (-7.44%), Mediobanca (-4.24%) and Unicredit (-3.36%) as the market questioned the likelihood of some of the ongoing bank recapitalisation plans going ahead.It was a similar story in credit markets although the underperformance of financials generally was more obvious. The iTraxx Main index ended the day little changed but did wipe out an early 3bp move wider, while the iTraxx Crossover index finished 5bps tighter. Senior financials did end 3bps wider however while subordinated financials were over 6bps wider by the end of play. Of the four Italian banks within the latter index, Mediobanca spreads were 3bps wider while spreads for Intesa Sanpaolo, Generali and Unicredit were 8bps to 10bps wider. So some underperformance but as we mentioned at the top perhaps some signs that the market is giving Italy the benefit of the doubt for now. Over in sovereign bond markets 10y BTP yields finished the day 8.3bps higher at 1.981% which compares to a 5.0bp move higher for similar maturity Bund yields. The remainder of the periphery was actually little changed. Elsewhere the Euro traded in a near 3% range. After tumbling as much as -1.50% early in the Asia session it then rallied as Europe kicked into gear and actually closed up +0.94% on the day. The US session was for the most part a reflection of the reasonably positive sentiment. The S&P 500 closed up +0.58% and 10y Treasury yields ended a modest 1bp higher at a shade below 2.400%.While we expect the political situation to move fairly swiftly it’s still worth considering the medium-term consequences for Italy in the wake of the result. In his note following the result yesterday, DB’s Marco Stringa made the important reminder that the referendum was a catalyst rather than the cause of Italy’s complex situation. The complexity is due to disappointing growth, concerns about the banking system and the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. At least initially, Marco does not expect to revise down GDP projections as the "No" outcome was his central case scenario. The likelihood of a systemic solution for the NPL issue will influence the medium-term evolution of the Italian banking sector and banks' ability to support investment growth. Marco expects no pro-active systemic solution for the banking sector before the next election. He also expects a new electoral law for both Houses of the Parliament. In his opinion, it is important that a compromise on a new electoral law does not lead to a system that encourages the formation of governments supported by overly heterogeneous coalitions. Politics was the overwhelmingly dominating theme throughout yesterday. Along with digesting the Italian referendum outcome, there was also some focus on a Sunday Times article confirming the UK Government’s plans to potentially pay into the EU budget for access to the single market, something which PM May is calling a ‘grey Brexit’, i.e. in between the black and white demands of leave and remain hardliners. So further evidence that the UK government is becoming increasingly pragmatic from the early hard line stance. As a reminder the Supreme Court hearing continues today. Elsewhere, news also tricked in late in the day that Eurozone finance ministers had agreed to provide short term debt relief measures for Greece prepared by the European Stability Mechanism, although they seemingly failed to form a consensus on a broader accord for various reform targets and measures. Significantly, the participation of the IMF in the bailout program appears to still be up in the air with talks breaking up last night over splits in the various reform targets. According to the FT, Eurogroup President, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, confirmed that getting the IMF on board by the end of the year is unlikely and that instead talks will continue into the New Year. Meanwhile over in France, the latest update there is that Prime Minister Manuel Valls has declared that he will run for presidency as had been somewhat expected following the news that Hollande had ruled himself out of contention. Refreshing our screens this morning it’s been a broadly positive session in Asia this morning. Markets have largely followed the lead from the moves in Europe and on Wall Street last night with the Nikkei (+0.53%), Hang Seng (+0.86%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%), Kospi (+1.32%) and ASX (+0.81%) all edging higher. EM currencies are also generally a touch stronger, while the Aussie Dollar has weakened modestly (about -0.17% as type) after the RBA left rates on hold as expected. Moving on. As far as the economic data was concerned yesterday, it was on the whole relatively positive. The primary focus in the US was on the November ISM non-manufacturing print which was reported as rising 2.4pts to 57.2 and well exceeding expectations for a rise to 55.5. That is in fact the best reading since October 2015 and whilst the details revealed a modest decline in new orders (by 0.7pts to 57.0) there were gains across components of business activity, employment and new export orders. It was noted that the employment component in particular, which came in at 58.2, is the 5th largest print since the start of the series in 1997. Meanwhile, the final services PMI reading for November was revised down a modest 0.1pts to 54.6 which puts the composite at 54.9 and unchanged versus October. Lastly the labour market conditions index for November was reported as rising by 1.5pts in November which is the best monthly gain since July. In Europe the data was focused on the final November PMI readings. There was a bit of disappointment in the final services revision for the Euro area which was revised down from 54.1 to 53.8 largely as a result of a 1pt downward revision in France to 51.6. Putting it in context however that reading for the Euro area is still the highest this year while the composite level of 53.9 is also the highest in 2016. The most interesting takeaway was the data for the non-core and specifically Italy where the services reading printed at a bumper 53.3 (vs. 51.6 expected), up 2.3pts from October and the highest level since February. Our European economists highlighted that, should the data for the Euro area remain unchanged in December, then the composite PMI would point to GDP growth of +0.4% qoq in Q4 and so represents some upside to their current estimate. Before we look at today’s calendar, yesterday also marked the last day for Fedspeak prior the blackout period kicking in, although again there was little new that could move the dial. NY Fed President William Dudley opined that ‘it is important that fiscal and monetary policy are well aligned going forward’ and that ‘there appears to be few imbalances in the economy that could lead to the current expansion ending’. Perhaps more interestingly, Dudley acknowledged the recent tightening in financial conditions but also suggested that that he does not see this as prompting great concern and instead said that it seems broadly consistent given that it’s being driven by a greater likelihood of stronger near-term aggregate demand and less downside risk to the growth outlook. Meanwhile Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Fed needs to be patient to ‘see what fiscal program emerges’ but that he see’s every reason to think that the economy is to ‘stay strong for the next few years given Trump administration’s planned policies’. Looking at the day ahead, the early data out this morning in Europe comes from Germany where the October factory orders data will be released. Later this morning we’ll get the final revisions to Q3 GDP in the Euro area along with the growth components. No change from the +0.3% qoq flash print is expected. This afternoon in the US we’ll firstly get the October trade balance reading, with the final Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data also scheduled for release. Factory orders data for the month of October is also due along with this month’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index reading. Lastly, final durable and capital goods orders revisions for October will be released.

06 декабря 2016, 14:26

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06 декабря 2016, 13:35

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06 декабря 2016, 10:23

Фондовые индексы АТР растут благодаря восстановлению аппетита к риску

Азиатские фондовые индексы, продемонстрировавшие падение в понедельник из-за результатов референдума в Италии, во вторник растут благодаря восстановлению аппетита к риску, стабилизации евро и сильным статданным из США, передает CNBC.