Резервный банк Австралии
31 октября, 07:31

Австралийский доллар снизился на данных из Китая

Австралийский доллар упал после того, как данные показали, что в октябре индекс активности производственного сектора китайской экономики вырос в более медленном темпе. Доллар Новой Зеландии также снизился после двух редких дней роста. В октябре индекс официальных менеджеров по закупкам в Китае упал до 51,6, с 52,4 пункта в сентябре, тогда как индекс сектора услуг снизился до 54,3 с 55,4 в сентябре. Рост промышленного производства в Китае снизился более чем ожидалось в октябре в условиях ослабления рынка недвижимости и ужесточения правил загрязнения, которые заставляют многие сталелитейные заводы, металлургические заводы и фабрики сокращать производство в течение зимы. Китай является крупнейшим торговым партнером Австралии, занимая большую часть своей добычи железной руды, в то время как сектор услуг составляет более половины экономики Китая и имеет важное значение для Пекина, поскольку он уравновешивает рост от инвестиций и экспорта. В последние недели австралийский доллар упал более чем на 4,5% в основном за счет возрождающегося доллара. Австралиец готовится к третьему прямому месяцу потерь в октябре, но некоторые аналитики менее пессимистичны. "Мы считаем, что AUD, скорее всего, достигнет своего значения", - сказали аналитики ANZ в примечании к клиентам. "Некоторая консолидация в долларах США, наряду с сильным глобальным ростом и избыточной макро-ликвидностью, должна продолжать повышать настроения и обеспечивать подъем AUD". Резервный банк Австралии (RBA), как полагают, будет удерживать ставки на рекордных минимумах еще много месяцев, в то время как Федеральный резерв США находится на четком пути ужесточения. Новозеландский доллар находится на пути к худшему месячному показателю с января 2016 года. Иностранные инвесторы обеспокоены тем, что новое легальное правительство Лейбористской партии страны займет жесткую позицию в отношении иммиграции и иностранных инвестиций и пересмотрит правила, регулирующие Резервный банк Новой Зеландии. Местный бизнес также казался неуверенным в настроениях, показал опрос ANZ Bank. Индекс уверенности в деловых кругах от ANZ в октябре снизился на -10.1% Иена отреагировала незначительным снижением на решение Банка Японии сохранить денежно-кредитную политика без изменений. На совещании по денежно-кредитной политике, состоявшемся сегодня, Правление Банка Японии приняло решение большинством голосов 8 против 1 Сохранить отрицательную процентную ставку -0,1% к остаткам процентных ставок на текущих счетах, проводимых финансовыми учреждениями в Банке. Также Банк будет покупать японские государственные облигации (JGB), чтобы их доходность в течение 10 лет оставалась на уровне около нуля. Прогнозы реального ВВП Банка Японии повысился на 2017/18 финансовый год на +1,9% против +1,8%, прогнозируемого в июле. На 2018/19 и 2019/20 финансовые годы сохранили без изменений 1,4% и 0,7% соответственно. Прогнозы по инфляции снизился также как ожидалось. Базовый ИПЦ на 2017 / 18 финансовый год увеличится на +0,8% против +1,1% прогнозированного в июле. Ожидания по инфляции на 2018 / 19 финансовый год - +1,4% против +1,5%, прогнозируемого в июле, на 2019 / 20 - остается на уровне 1,8%. Также сегодня стало известно, объемы промышленного производства в Японии в сентябре в годовом исчислении упали на -1,1% после роста на 2,0% в августе, хотя экономисты ожидали снижение показателя на -1,5%. В месячном исчислении промпроизводство в Японии выросло на 2,5%, что выше прогноза роста на 2,0%, но ниже предыдущего значения 5,3%. Промышленное производство упало на в сентябре из-за падения выпуска микросхем памяти, оборудования для производства плоских дисплеев и тяжелой техники, используемой в строительстве. Падение было самым большим за четыре месяца. "Объемы промпроизводства снизилась из-за временной слабости в экономике Китая, но глобальный спрос остается солидным, поэтому объем производства будет расти в будущем", - сказал Дай Аоки, региональный главный инвестиционный директор UBS Securities в Японии. - Спрос на рабочую силу оставался самым сильным за последние 43 года. Безработица в сентябре осталась на уровне 2,8%. В сентябре в месячном эквиваленте соотношение числа открытых вакансий и числа кандидатов на них соответствует 1,52, как и в августе В сентябре расходы на домашнее хозяйство неожиданно упали, что вызвало некоторую озабоченность по поводу отсутствия влияния на рынок рабочей силы на потребительские расходы. Расходы домохозяйств, публикуемые Министерством внутренних дел и коммуникаций Японии, снизились в сентябре в годовом исчислении на -0,3% после роста на 0,6% в августе. Экономисты ожидали рост показателя на 0,7%. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

30 октября, 00:58

FX Weekly Preview: All Eyes On Yellen, Trump And The Yield Curve

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Submitted by Shant Movsesian and Rajan Dhall MSTA from fxdaily.co.uk Looking to the week ahead, we have the FOMC meeting midweek, and for all the expectations that there will no change this time around, the market will be sensitive - to the downside - on any rhetoric in the statement which puts Dec in doubt.  This looks unlikely as the Fed are keen to press on with normalisation, and with the market now well prepped for a move, it would be a pretty dovish sign if Yellen and Co did not 'take advantage'.  From 2018 on however, we can see that there is scepticism over whether 3 more rate hikes can be accommodated, the base-line case for up to 2 hikes of 25bps reflected in the 5-10yr Treasuries.  For some reason, there was key resistance at 2.40% in the 10yr, but we saw the psychological draw of 2.50% more likely, and this latter level has held firm, and we expect to do so into the Fed announcement, if not longer.  Policy reform in the US has clearly stuttered - badly - and even if this is revived, questions over how the Trump administration plan to fund tax cuts in particular are not going to go away, and this will also rein in USD strength from here.  Looking over the past 12 months, the Trump reflated trade saw Treasuries topping out at 2.65% in the 10yr - twice - and this was when long run rates were assumed to be closer to 3.0%.  The Fed themselves have marked this down to 2.75-2.80%, so this adds further substance to 2.50% as a key top.   For Trump himself, Robert Mueller's US/Russian election probe has now led to the first charges being filed by the special counsel, and according to some of the leading news wires, anyone charged could be taken into custody as soon as Monday.  He is also set to name the new Fed chair, which looks increasingly like Jerome Powell who errs on the side of Yellen in the gradual approach to normalisation. USD/JPY resistance in the 114.25-50 area aligns with the above rates scenario but may see a gap lower on the Russian probe news, but on the weekly charts, a push above 114.50 would run into more (tech-based) selling in the 115.00-50 area, so we attach a high probability to this pair having reached some notable limits unless the US data continues to outperform - recall, Q3 hit 3.0% on Friday.  At the end of the week we have the Oct employment report which is expected to show a rebound in headline jobs after the hurricane hit south hit jobs growth to the tune of (only) 33k.  The headline number is expect to show in excess of 200k this time, with wage growth again in focus.   At the start of the week we also have personal spending and income and the core PCE, while accompanying Wednesday's usual ADP survey, we also have ISM manufacturing PMIs for Oct and construction spending leading up to the FOMC climax that evening.  ISM services come out after the jobs report on Friday, so it will be busy week for the spot rates, with policy intentions and economic data all crowded into one week.   Early Tuesday sees the BoJ deliver their latest musings on the economy, and followed up by a widely anticipated continuation of their stimulus measures which will remain in place until inflation picks up.  Abe's win underpins the current fiscal and monetary stance, but the domestic data is showing gradual recovery.  Pre election divestment from Japanese fund managers are not going to give JPY shorts any further momentum on the downside, and in the case of the likes of EUR/JPY in particular, ECB policy and political unrest across the region could reinforce a down side bias here in the short term.   Thursday's ECB meeting was met with disappointment, but it is not as if this was not foreseen. The governing council have been hinting at gradual adjustment, if only to curb the EUR effect. Traders continued to support EUR/USD and the rest of the crosses into the announcement, but with the reduced APP effectively open ended, buyers had to throw the towel in, and the lead spot rate dropped under 1.1660 and later 1.1600.   Looking to the stand off between Spain and Catalonia, we have seen limited concerns in the price action, and given the weekend rally in support of unity, this relaxed approach looks to have been justified for now.  Overall unrest in most member states - France, under Le Pen, the AfD in Germany and Kurz and his courting of the far right Freedom Party - does anything but paint a picture of stability.  It will not be long before Italy is in the spotlight, and we have already seen Lombardy and Veneto seeking greater autonomy.   Suddenly the EUR bulls are not so confident, and calls for fair value at 1.2500 in EUR/USD have also gone quiet.  Circa 1.1500 looks set to be tested, but we would not be surprised to see the coming weeks and months producing levels back in the 1.1100-1.1300 range, especially after such aggressive buying over the summer.  EUR/CHF will likely follow lower to some degree, with the SNB open about their intentions to 'smooth out' CHF strength.   Date focus will be on Tuesday preliminary inflation reading for Oct, where the headline rate is expected to slip from 1.5% to 1.4% while the core rate sticks at 1.1%.  Q3 GDP is released at the same time with median forecasts looking for another 0.6% rise.  A big week for the BoE, who have been hinting at a 25bp rate hike and the market taking this to heart despite the obvious concerns over EU negotiations. As we see it, the MPC's hands are tied, and if they do not move this month, governor Carney in particular will come under fire given many believe his conviction is lacking, turning swiftly from dove to hawk over late summer.  The gov has also admitted that there is a trade off between growth and inflation, so he looks to have been swayed by the consensus moving in favour of a hike. Others at the BoE including McCafferty, Saunders and Broadbent seem to think the economy is on the cusp of a tightening cycle, but the data is already showing cracks.   Last week's Q3 GDP print of 0.4% (beating 0.3% expected) was little to get excited about, but Cable went on another surge higher, only to be snuffed out again, but sub 1.3100 is proving resilient and looks set to contain the downside until the decision on Thursday.  Probability lies with a one off hike at best at the present time, and in this instance, any post move reaction is likely to be faded - 1.3250-60 again to slow gains, coming in ahead of the 1.3300 level, 1.3340-50 is strong, but the higher we go the more intense the selling will get.  We just cannot see where the momentum on the upside will come from unless the UK government buckle in the negotiations and given in to EU demands to commit to the exit payment before trade talks.  Even then, single market access isn't going to come cheap. For us, the only soft Brexit is no Brexit, and the hard liners in parliament will not allow that to happen!  In Canada, the BoC's gov Poloz and his deputy Wilkins again put the market straight on rate policy going forward.  In another example of overstretching, or reading more into forward guidance, the central bank has clearly been unnerved by the rapid pace of appreciation in the currency, as well as long end rates, but we have seen a decent moderation in USD/CAD tipping 1.2900 on Friday from the mid 1.2000's seen in early Sep.  Data dependency is not something which is heeded in a market hell-bent of volatility and/or momentum, but this week, we get the employment stats alongside that of the US, but closer in, the GDP figures for Aug are also released. Gov Poloz is again speaking this week, and his comments may reflect on the growth numbers from Tuesday's session.   1.2900-1.3000 is a strong area of resistance which we anticipated would hold in the near term at least, and Friday's price action saw just that with the strong US data only able to push this USD pair as far as 1.2915-20 - we finished the session just above 1.2800.  In Australia, it was the inflation miss which saw the AUD under-perform, losing ground against the NZD which is plagued by the prospects of a less business friendly approach to governance by the new Labour led coalition.  At 1.8%, both the headline and trimmed mean rates are slipping away from the RBA's 2-3% target range, but if tightening labour markets in the other major economies are to augur well for a pick in asset prices, then I don't see why Australia should be excluded. Support seen ahead of 0.7600 in the spot rate was largely USD based, so with AUD/NZD in particular ending the week near the lows, we expect rate hike expectations have been pushed out a little, so there may be some further weakness to suffer here.  Retail sales and trade are the stand out releases ahead.  Labour stats for Q3 are the key focus in NZ, and with the new PM reforming the RBNZ mandate to incorporate targeting full employment, their are dovish implications going forward, and these could be emphasised by any weakness in the numbers.  Unemployment currently stands at 4.8% at however, which compares favourably with Australia at 5.5%.  Employment in NZ is expected to have risen around 0.7% over the quarter.  In the meantime, NZD/USD based out at 0.6815-20, matching levels seen in May this year, and this may form a near term base for now - 0.6680-0.6700 next if we haven't.   Looking at the SEK and NOK vs the USD and EUR respectively, we continue to see near identical patterns, and there looks to be little interest to differentiate here with Norwegian data dipping a little but the Riksbank refusing to let go of their cautious stance.  We are still keeping half any eye in the NOK/SEK rate which has moved back into the mid 1.0200's again, and there is little key data ahead which could jolt the cross rate to any material degree.   Manufacturing PMIs in both countries out on Wednesday.   In Switzerland, the KoF Leading indicators are on Monday, but all data here has lost its relevance with the SNB sticking to task and watching the CHF like a hawk.  USD/CHF through parity again suits their cause.  

27 октября, 17:16

Credit Agricole рекомендует покупать австралийский доллар ...

Инвесторы должны покупать австралийский доллар за иены (AUD/JPY), так как Резервный банк Австралии «вряд ли окаже… читать далее…

27 октября, 17:13

RBA looking to handle uncertainty better, says Debelle

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Reserve Bank of Australia to change way it presents forecasts in order to avoid false impression of precision

26 октября, 23:33

Australia ETFs in Focus as Rate Hike Hopes Fade

Australia's inflation weaker than expected in the third quarter; Australian dollar sinks.

26 октября, 14:06

Traders Paralyzed, Markets Flat Ahead Of Today's Main Event: The ECB's Taper Announcement

US equity futures and Asian shares are flat this morning with European shares treading water ahead of the ECB's policy meeting in which it’s expected to announce a tapering to its €60bn in monthly QE. On this busiest day of Q3 earnings season, companies set to report earnings include Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Intel, while we also get data on jobless claims and wholesale inventories. In a pre-ECB appetizer, Sweden and Norway’s central banks both kept their interest rates on hold as they too look forward to see what the ECB does first. Their currencies barely budged though as attention remained firmly on a euro rose to a 1-week high of $1.1820, up 12.5% for the year, before hitting an air pocket ahead of the European open. Ahead of today's main event, traders waited for formal confirmation from the ECB that will take its biggest step yet in unwinding years of loose monetary policy before committing capital and volumes were abysmal and price action has been tentative. In terms of sector specific moves, performance is relatively mixed with a bulk of the outliers coming in the form of individual companies given we are in the thick of earnings season. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed with bank shares underperforming after earnings reports from Deutsche Bank AG and Barclays Plc. Spanish shares rebounded sharply following a Bloomberg report that instead of Independence, Catalonia may seek election instead. In any case, Catalonia’s President Carles Puigdemont will address the regional parliament on Thursday afternoon. Notable movers include Barclays (-5.9%), Bayer (-3.4%), AB Inbev (-2.6%), Deutsche Bank (-2.03%, STMicroelectronics (+6.4%). Typically tight and light trade in Bunds ahead of an ECB meeting, and especially one that is widely expected to herald a change in policy. The 10 year German bond briefly attempted to trade higher off the Eurex open, but swiftly reversed course and revisited sub-161.00 territory (ie yield staying close, albeit just below 0.5%). Volume so far only a little more than 100k lots, with many market participants sitting tight until the ECB reveals its QE hand amidst a range of potential tapering options and opinions. Gilts largely side-lined, but firmer for choice having underperformed yesterday on UK data that supports near term tightening (November BoE hike prospects up to between 80-90% as a result). Some respite for US Treasuries also, after recent bear steepening, on a Wall Street downturn and reports that dove Yellen may yet be reappointed by President Trump for a further term. Eurozone bonds trade in tight ranges: the German curve has flattened as the long-end outperforms. In the US, Treasuries rebound, with 10Y yields pulling back from yesterday’s seven-month high, declining to 2.42%, the level that sparked yesterday's stop loss driven selloff. SEK and NOK were slightly weaker versus EUR after both Riksbank and Norges Bank left policy unchanged as expected while the Turkish Lira is among the biggest losers in EM ahead of Turkey’s central bank decision. European stocks slightly stronger, with Italian equities leading regional gains. WTI extends gain above $52/bbl as Saudi Arabia’s crown prince backs extending OPEC production cuts beyond March 2018. The pound fell and South Africa’s rand extended its decline amid worries of a rating downgrade after the country’s finance minister on Wednesday signaled more borrowing. West Texas crude slipped a second day. As a reminder, the ECB is expected to announce a reduction in the size of its monthly bond buying at its policy meeting. Any deviation from the expected nine-month extension of quantitative easing at around 30 billion euros a month, could impact markets, in particular the euro and German bunds.   In Asia, despite an overall muted tone to trading, the Nikkei 225 resumed its winning ways (+0.2%) after ending the longest stretch of gains on record, dismissing a strong yen, and traded positive with Daiwa Securities and Fanuc among the biggest gainers after encouraging earnings. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were mixed ahead of updates from the blue-chip financials with the mainland lifted after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC. The Kospi underperformed even as data showed South Korea’s economic growth picked up more than expected in the third quarter. China began marketing its first sovereign dollar bonds since 2004 on the heels of the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with early mild upside seen alongside a rebound in USTs, while today’s 2yr JGB auction failed to inspire demand despite stronger than prior results as price action conformed to the mundane tone seen across overnight asset classes. While the bond rout eased in Europe and the US, China’s 10Y sov bond briefly rose to the highest in three years amid concerns over the nation’s deleveraging campaign, although it pared the advance to stay little changed at 3.79% as of close in Shanghai after surging 6bps on Wednesday in the biggest jump since May. Bond strategists point to 4% as next level to watch for 10-year yield, as sentiment is fragile and market tends to be moved by negative news. In rates, the yield on 10Y Treasuries fell 1bp to 2.42%; Germany’s 10Y yield decreased 2 bps to 0.47%. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude dipped less than 0.05 percent to $52.17 a barrel. Gold advanced less than 0.05 percent to $1,277.56 an ounce. Copper fell 0.4 percent to $6,984.50 per metric ton, the biggest fall in more than a week. Bulletin Headline Summaary from RanSquawk European equity markets subdued, as eyes on Draghi The range bound theme has been evident across markets, with FX also seeing light trade Looking ahead, the highlight will be the ECB and Draghi press conference, followed by US trade data and weekly jobs Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.03% to 2,557.75 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.04% to 387.27 MSCI Asia down 0.1% to 166.77 MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.2% to 546.50 Nikkei up 0.2% to 21,739.78 Topix up 0.1% to 1,753.90 Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 28,202.38 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,407.57 Sensex up 0.3% to 33,132.34 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,916.30 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,480.63 German 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 0.476% Euro up 0.03% to $1.1817 Brent Futures down 0.2% to $58.33/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 2.2 bps to 1.77% Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.647% Brent Futures down 0.2% to $58.33/bbl Gold spot up 0.03% to $1,277.96 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.04% to 93.67 Top Overnight News President Donald Trump said he’s thinking about giving Janet Yellen another term as U.S. Federal Reserve chair as he balances the desire to put his stamp on the central bank with the risk of changing leadership amid a stock market rally. A federal judge rejected a bid by Democratic state officials to temporarily block the White House from ending so-called cost-sharing reduction payments to health insurers under the Affordable Care Act. To make a fair deal with Nafta you have to ’terminate’ it, Trump says Sweden’s Riksbank keeps key rate at -0.50%, says still sees first rate hike in mid-2018 Norges Bank keeps deposit rate at 0.50%, says balance of economic risks unchanged since September Catalonia may call regional elections this week, rather than declaring independence from Spain Italy passes new law that sets stage for general elections in 1H 2018 Saudi’s crown prince says “of course” he wanted to extend the cuts into 2018; there’s a need to “continue stabilizing the market,” he adds RBA’s Debelle says Australia inflation could be weaker than recent data showed Asia stocks were indecisive for most of the session following the worst performance in their US counterparts since early September, where losses were led by telecoms and industrials amid a slump in AT&T and Boeing shares post-earnings. Corporate updates were in focus in Asia with ASX 200 (+0.1%) initially pressured by weakness in its largest weighted financials sector after ‘Big 4’ ANZ Bank missed on FY results. However, a late rebound in other banking names in Australia lifted the index into the green heading into the close. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) dismissed a firmer JPY and traded positive with Daiwa Securities and Fanuc among the biggest gainers after encouraging earnings. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) were mixed ahead of updates from the blue-chip financials with the mainland lifted after another respectable liquidity operation by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were relatively flat with early mild upside seen alongside a rebound in USTs, while today’s 2yr JGB auction failed to inspire demand despite stronger than prior results as price action conformed to the mundane tone seen across overnight asset classes. PBoC injected CNY 80bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 40bln via 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6288 (Prev. 6.6322) Top Asian News Japan Post Insurance Preparing to Invest in Foreign Real Estate Vietnam’s Biggest-Ever Initial Public Offering Prices at Top End No Good News for India’s Bonds Means Yields Set to Grind Higher Sri Lanka Large Lenders Rise as Rule Changed for Minimum Capital Kobe Steel Finds Four Additional Cases of Suspected Fake Data RBA’s Debelle Says Inflation May Be Even Weaker Than Data Show In Europe, price action has also been tentative with traders looking to take the lead from events in Frankfurt today. In terms of sector specific moves, performance is relatively mixed with a bulk of the outliers coming in the form of individual companies given we are in the thick of earnings season. Notable movers include Barclays (-5.9%), Bayer (-3.4%), AB Inbev (-2.6%), Deutsche Bank (-2.03%, STMicroelectronics (+6.4%). Typically tight and light trade in Bunds ahead of an ECB meeting, and especially one that is widely expected to herald a change in policy. The 10 year German bond briefly attempted to trade higher off the Eurex open, but swiftly reversed course and revisited sub-161.00 territory (ie yield staying close, albeit just below 0.5%). Volume so far only a little more than 100k lots, with many market participants sitting tight until the ECB reveals its QE hand amidst a range of potential tapering options and opinions. Gilts largely side-lined, but firmer for choice having underperformed yesterday on UK data that supports near term tightening (November BoE hike prospects up to between 80-90% as a result). Some respite for US Treasuries also, after recent bear steepening, on a Wall Street downturn and reports that dove Yellen may yet be reappointed by President Trump for a further term. Top European News Santander Underlying Profit Gains as Charges Hurt Net Income Liberty Global-Ziggo Deal Approval Annulled by EU Court Hungarian Central Bankers Reiterate Extra Euro Entry Conditions IMF Tells Central Banks to Keep Policy Accomodative If Possible Norway Keeps Rates at Record Low to Back Recovery From Oil Slump In FX, RBA Deputy Governor Debelle says they are alert to risk that wages will remain subdued even as spare capacity is reduced. US President Trump says his people negotiating NAFTA will have to get tougher and that to make a fair deal with NAFTA, it has to be terminated n a session set to be dominated by central bank action, notable announcements thus far have included rate decisions from the Riksbank and Norges bank. Kicking off with the Swedes, as expected the governing council stood pat on rates at -0.5% whilst maintaining their current size of asset purchases and repo rate path. The bulk of the reaction emanated from the Bank not paying too much credence to recent disappointing inflation data which led to appreciation of the SEK. However, this move was short-lived after the Bank extended their mandate for FX interventions. Elsewhere in the Scandi’s NOK saw little in the way of a reaction after the Norges bank kept rates on hold as expected and maintained existing rhetoric. AUD slipped below 0.7700 after RBA Debelle highlighted risks that wages could remain subdued. Finally, most other majors have traded in a relatively tight-range ahead of the ECB. In commodities, in the commodity complex, price action has also been particularly tight with WTI reclaiming USD 52/bbl with little in the way of newsflow other than comments from the Saudi Crown Prince backing extending OPEC output cuts into 2018. In metals markets, copper has traded relatively flat while Gold has largely been tracking movements in the USD which has been kept in a range ahead of key risk events. Looking at the day ahead, the ECB meeting at 12.45pm BST and Draghi press conference shortly after are likely to be front and center today. Data wise this morning we’ll receive German consumer confidence for November, Euro area M3 money supply for September and UK CBI retailing reporting sales for October. In the afternoon across the pond wholesale inventories for September, initial jobless claims, September advance goods trade balance, September pending home sales and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity data are all due. Barclays, Twitter, Amazon and Alphabet are amongst those due to report results. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 222,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $64.0b deficit, prior $62.9b deficit, revised $63.3b deficit 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.9%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.7%, revised 0.7% 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.1 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior -2.6% 10am: Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. -4.2%, prior -3.1% 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 17, prior 17 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap So today is the day we’ve all been waiting for. It’s not an exaggeration to say some people have waited all their life for this moment. What will the announcement bring? Will the conspiracy theorists be working overtime? And will we get closure on a number of issues? Yes today sees the release of the final classified files on the JFK assassination nearly 54 years after the event. As someone who knows most of what he knows about the event from the film JFK I’m looking forward to being educated. Fortunately the minutes of today’s blockbuster ECB meeting will be available in only a few weeks so there’ll be no need for a film to be made speculating on how we got to the decision (who would play Mr Draghi?). Ahead of this, in a year of ultra-low volatility, yesterday threatened to leave you with a bit of motion sickness given the comparatively large swings seen and decent pick up in volumes. Given how well flagged today’s much anticipated ECB meeting is, it’s possible that yesterday was the storm before the calm. However there are still ways that Mr Draghi and co could surprise. Overall DB expect a cut in purchase at the start of 2018 from EU60bn per month to EU30bn and for this to be confirmed for 9 months. The consensus (guided by informed articles and commentary from the ECB) seems to have migrated lower towards EU25-30bn over the last month and from a 6 to a 9 month extension. However with reinvestments expected to be EU15bn per month on average next year, this could yet lead to a number at the lower end of expectations if the ECB focus on this. Our rates strategists think an explicit mention of gross purchases from the ECB could be quite hawkish as it would acknowledge the reinvestment issue that would naturally keep policy looser if they recycled all proceeds. Another hawkish signal could be mention of an explicit end date for purchases but this is not expected at the moment. Nevertheless our strategists think the current market pricing of the first rate hike being pushed back to early 2020 is too far. They think it’s more likely to be between Q2 and Q3 2019. Elsewhere for credit investors it’s unlikely they'll explicitly mention the specifics of the CSPP/ PSPP split but we think there's a good chance that when the data comes through in early 2018 it will show no or limited CSPP tapering relatively to PSPP. See the note we did on this last week for more details. We’ve mentioned a few times recently that bonds were looking like they were getting more volatile with the ranges picking up. Yesterday this trend increased as the intra-day range in 10yr USTs, Bunds and Gilts were 6.2bp, 3.7bp and 10.1bps respectively, before closing +1.3bp, 0.6bp and 4.8bp higher. USTs saw the biggest round trip closing at 2.433% having retraced nearly all of the sell-off up to 2.473% earlier on. Driving the swing seemed to be ECB hawkishness (growing chatter about a cut to EU20bn) and stronger IFO, UK GDP and US durables (more later) on one hand before a response to weaker earnings (again more later) and a delayed reaction to the prior day’s disagreement between Senator Flake and Corker and Mr Trump seemed to swing the pendulum the other way. Over in the US, the House of Representatives votes today on whether to adopt the 2018 budget that has already passed in the Senate. The House Republicans holds 239 seats and need only 217 votes to pass the budget, but potential defections may rock the boat. If passed, this will clear another hurdle before the finer tax plans are released, (expected to be 1 November) which will then lead to further debates. Elsewhere and adding to the bumper Thursday, Italy’s Senate is expected to hold a final vote on its new electoral bill (11am local time). Moving onto the search for the next Fed Chair, President Trump told Fox network he has narrowed his search to 2 or 3 people, and when asked if Ms Yellen “might be worth keeping”, he said “I would certainly think about that”.He added a decision will come in “the next very short period of time” and that “it won’t be a big shock”. Elsewhere, Bloomberg reports that Trump has privately told people that he would not appoint Gary Cohn to be the Fed Chair, in part to better allow him to focus on the tax reform efforts. Back in equities yesterday, both the S&P (-0.47%) and Dow (-0.48%) fell the most since early September, while the Nasdaq also retreated 0.52%. The weakness was impacted by softer corporate results from AMD (share price- 13.47%), Chipotle Mexican Grill (-14.58%) and even Boeing (-2.85%) after beating consensus forecasts. Within the S&P, all sectors were in the red, led by losses from the telco (-2.28%) and industrials sectors. The VIX rose to 11.23, back towards its recent highs in early September. It’s not clear whether some of the risk off was a response to the recent surge in yields. So far markets have shrugged it off but as we approached 2.5% and 0.5% on Treasuries and Bunds perhaps there was an appreciation that most of the recent move has been an increase in real yields and not inflation expectations moving notably higher. So financial conditions have tightened slightly as a result. It’s not clear whether that was an issue but whatever the cause there’s no doubt activity and vol increased. This morning in Asia, markets are mixed but little changed. The Hang Seng (-0.17%), Kospi (-0.12%) and ASX 200 (-0.10%) are down slightly, but the Nikkei (+0.16%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) are up as we type. Now quickly recapping other markets performance for yesterday. European bourses were all lower, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.57%), DAX (-0.46%) and CAC (-0.37%) down c0.5%, while the FTSE (-1.05%) underperformed, partly impacted by higher Sterling and  GlaxoSmithKline’s weaker results (shares -5.52%, biggest daily fall in 9 years). Turning to currencies, the US dollar index dipped marginally (-0.07%), while Euro republic, while the region’s foreign affairs chief suggested they would consider dropping their bid for independence if the central government offered them a way out. We should find out soon, with the Catalan President Puidgemont due to address Parliament this afternoon (from 5pm local time). Over to the UK, Brexit secretary Davis had to back track earlier comments where he suggested the UK Parliament may not be able to vote on the final EU divorce term before Brexit happens, as “it (voting) can’t come before we have the deal”. Later on, his office emailed a statement and noted “we are working to reach an agreement on the final deal in good time before we leave the EU in March 19”. Elsewhere, EU Chief negotiator Barnier noted that talks should be wrapped up by October 2018. In Canada, the cash rate was left unchanged at 1%, in line with consensus. Looking ahead, comments sounded a bit dovish, with the BOC noting “while less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, the Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. In particular, the Bank will be guided by (the) incoming data…” Further, Governor Poloz noted “given our recent history with inflation running below target, we continue to be more preoccupied with the downside risks to inflation”. The odds of a December rate hike fell c11ppt to 33%. Turning to China, where the new Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) was unveiled yesterday. Our China Chief economist noted that President Xi has gained more political power in this reshuffle. Stronger political power is a necessary condition for faster structural reforms, but not a sufficient one. It remains to be seen how effective the reforms will be implemented, particularly regarding state owned enterprises, fiscal and property market issues. For more details, refer to link. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the September durable goods orders report beat expectations, even with 0.2ppt upward revisions to the prior month’s reading. Core durable goods orders was 0.7% mom (vs. 0.5% expected) while capital goods orders (core) rose 1.3% mom for a third consecutive month (vs. 0.3% expected) - now up 7.8% yoy. Elsewhere, housing market readings were also higher than expectations. New home sales for September rebounded after two months of decline to 667k (vs. 554k expected). The FHFA house price index for August was up 0.7% mom (vs. 0.4% expected) and the four-week average of the MBA’s new purchase mortgage applications index is now up 7.7% yoy, roughly double that reported a month earlier. In Germany, the October IFO business climate rose to a new post-unification high at 116.7 (vs. 115.1 expected), while the expectations index also rose to 109.3 (vs. 107.3 expected) – the highest since December 2010. In the UK, 3Q GDP beat expectations at 0.4% qoq (vs. 0.3% expected), which is the highest growth this year, while annual growth was in line at 1.5% yoy. Looking at the day ahead, the ECB meeting at 12.45pm BST and Draghi press conference shortly after are likely to be front and center today. Data wise this morning we’ll receive German consumer confidence for November, Euro area M3 money supply for September and UK CBI retailing reporting sales for October. In the afternoon across the pond wholesale inventories for September, initial jobless claims, September advance goods trade balance, September pending home sales and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity data are all due. Barclays, Twitter, Amazon and Alphabet are amongst those due to report results.

13 октября, 05:41

Обзор финансовой стабильности от РБА за октябрь: основные риски от роста задолженности домашних хозяйств

Сегодня Резервный банк Австралии опубликовал обзор финансовой стабильности за октябрь 2017 года. Краткие выдержки из обзора РБА: Финансовая система Австралии остается сильной и устойчивой Основные риски связаны с ростом задолженности домашних хозяйств на фоне низких ставок и слабого роста доходов Более высокие темпы падения доходов могут свидетельствовать о том, что некоторые высокодоходные домохозяйства борются за обслуживание долга Более жесткие правила кредитования обусловливают интерес инвесторов Видны признаки ослабления условий на рынках жилья в Сиднее и Мельбурне Боле активное строительство новых квартир, оказывает давление на цены в Брисбене, части Мельбурна Мало кто еще говорит о проблемах заселения в новые квартиры, но внимательно следят за этим Банки хорошо капитализированы, плохие и сомнительные долги находятся около исторических минимумов Регуляторы стремятся укрепить банковскую подотчетность и контроль рисков, учитывая недавние провалы Местные банки возвращаются к коммерческим кредитам, азиатское банковское кредитование все еще сильно растет Небольшой рост в теневом банкинге пока еще наблюдается, но область находится под присмотром Риск остается повышенным в Китае, учитывая высокий уровень задолженности и непрозрачные заимствования Озабоченность чрезмерным риском на глобальных финансовых рынках рискует «разрушительной коррекцией», Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

11 октября, 23:52

What Lies Ahead for Australia ETFs?

Australia's retail sales suffer highest decline in more than four years, while business activity remains strong.

10 октября, 08:21

Мнение Goldman Sachs по паре AUD/USD

Согласно мнению Филипа Моффитта, руководителя одного из подразделений американского банка Goldman Sachs, курс австралийской валюты должен быть ниже текущего. Эксперт считает, что Резервный банк Австралии решится повысить учетную ставку, но не так скоро и не такими темпами как считает большинство аналитиков-коллег из других банков. Моффитт уверен, что Центральный банк Австралии очень боится удивить участников рынков неожиданным повышением ставок, т.к. это тут же приведет к резкому укреплению австралийского доллара, что крайне неприемлемо для правительства Австралии и РБА. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

05 октября, 11:22

10 самых авторитетных городов мира

Консалтинговая фирма Reputation Institute (RI) опубликовала результаты исследования, в рамках которых был составлен рейтинг самых влиятельных и авторитетных городов мира.

05 октября, 11:22

10 самых авторитетных городов мира

Консалтинговая фирма Reputation Institute (RI) опубликовала результаты исследования, в рамках которых был составлен рейтинг самых влиятельных и авторитетных городов мира.

05 октября, 10:03

Валютный рынок. Австралии идти только вниз

AUD/USD будет падать и дальше. Курс валюты дошел до той точки, когда он вредит национальной экономике. Сегодня были опубликованы данные по розничным продажам. И они подтвердили падение на 0,6% м/м против прогнозного прироста на 0,3%. Причем слабый спрос отмечается по всем категориям товаров. И это уже опасный тренд: экспорт промышленных металлов сейчас не в лучшей форме, поэтому проблемы в сфере внутреннего потребления воспринимаются еще более остро. И ЦБ Австралии вынужден будет и дальше упрашивать рынки ослабить национальную валюту. Если не получится - то пойдет на снижение ставки. В таких условиях мы ждем дальнейшего падения AUD/USD. После пробоя отметки 0,78 целью станет 0,7740. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата. Игры престолов. Битва кубов. Прогноз на 4 квартал 2017 года «Зима близко…» Это фраза не только главный посыл сериала Игра Престолов, но и посыл нового квартального прогноза. Мы приближаемся не только к календарной зиме, но и к пику геополитических рисков и глобальных вызовов. И в новом порядке победу одержат только самые сильные или объединенные силы. Какая валюта станет самой слабой в 4 квартале? На какой индекс делать основную ставку? Какие металлы будут в цене? Стоит ли покупать агроактивы? На все эти вопросы вам ответят аналитики ГК Forex Club в очередном квартальном прогнозе. Подключиться aud/usd, форекс клуб Не найдены экономические события с 2017-10-05 по 2017-10-05 USDRUB

04 октября, 16:16

EUR/AUD: цель роста 1,5055

   EUR/AUD   Стратегия совершения сделки Направление сделкиПокупкаВход (цена открытия)1,4960Цель (цена закрытия)1,5055Stop Loss1,4895Горизонтдо 19.00 мск 05.10.2017* - Инфляция в еврозоне удерживается на уровне 1,5% - ЕЦБ уже в октябре может объявить о сворачивании мер стимулирования и нормализации монетарной политики - Резервный Банк Австралии обеспокоен ростом австралийского доллара. Рост экономики и инфляции может замедлиться на фоне укрепления валюты - На часовом графике MACD формирует бычью дивергенцию Параметры сделки Необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на покупку EUR/AUD по цене 1,4960 не позднее 05.10.2017 10:00 мск: В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток не превысит 2,1%. Если вы хотите получить размер позиции, мультипликатора, потенциальной прибыли и убытка для Libertex, подключайтесь к сервису Утро с Forex Club. * Если сделка не закрылась по ордерам (take-profit, stop-loss), рекомендуем закрыть вручную не позднее указанной даты. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.Источник: ГК Forex Club: https://www.fxclub.org/markets-data/reviews/euraud-tsiel-rosta-15055/

04 октября, 16:16

EUR/AUD: цель роста 1,5055

   EUR/AUD   Стратегия совершения сделки Направление сделкиПокупкаВход (цена открытия)1,4960Цель (цена закрытия)1,5055Stop Loss1,4895Горизонтдо 19.00 мск 05.10.2017* - Инфляция в еврозоне удерживается на уровне 1,5% - ЕЦБ уже в октябре может объявить о сворачивании мер стимулирования и нормализации монетарной политики - Резервный Банк Австралии обеспокоен ростом австралийского доллара. Рост экономики и инфляции может замедлиться на фоне укрепления валюты - На часовом графике MACD формирует бычью дивергенцию Параметры сделки Необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на покупку EUR/AUD по цене 1,4960 не позднее 05.10.2017 10:00 мск: В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток не превысит 2,1%. Если вы хотите получить размер позиции, мультипликатора, потенциальной прибыли и убытка для Libertex, подключайтесь к сервису Утро с Forex Club. * Если сделка не закрылась по ордерам (take-profit, stop-loss), рекомендуем закрыть вручную не позднее указанной даты. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.Источник: ГК Forex Club: https://www.fxclub.org/markets-data/reviews/euraud-tsiel-rosta-15055/Источник: FxTeam

04 октября, 16:16

EUR/AUD: цель роста 1,5055

   EUR/AUD   Стратегия совершения сделки Направление сделкиПокупкаВход (цена открытия)1,4960Цель (цена закрытия)1,5055Stop Loss1,4895Горизонтдо 19.00 мск 05.10.2017* - Инфляция в еврозоне удерживается на уровне 1,5% - ЕЦБ уже в октябре может объявить о сворачивании мер стимулирования и нормализации монетарной политики - Резервный Банк Австралии обеспокоен ростом австралийского доллара. Рост экономики и инфляции может замедлиться на фоне укрепления валюты - На часовом графике MACD формирует бычью дивергенцию Параметры сделки Необходимо открыть сделку в Libertex на покупку EUR/AUD по цене 1,4960 не позднее 05.10.2017 10:00 мск: В случае негативного развития ситуации убыток не превысит 2,1%. Если вы хотите получить размер позиции, мультипликатора, потенциальной прибыли и убытка для Libertex, подключайтесь к сервису Утро с Forex Club. * Если сделка не закрылась по ордерам (take-profit, stop-loss), рекомендуем закрыть вручную не позднее указанной даты. Предупреждение: Прибыльность в прошлом не означает прибыльность в будущем. Любые прогнозы носят информационный характер и не гарантируют получение результата.Источник: ГК Forex Club: https://www.fxclub.org:443/markets-data/reviews/euraud-tsiel-rosta-15055/Источник: FxTeam

04 октября, 13:54

Spanish Stocks Tumble On Growing Catalan Crisis; Dollar Weakens As China Jumps

While U.S. equity futures were little changed in a rerun of every other morning this month ahead of a diagonal ramp that closes the S&P at daily all time highs, things were more volatile elsewhere with the dollar sliding as investors weighed the possibility that current Fed Governor Jerome Powell, seen widely as far more dovish than Kevin Warsh, might take the reins from Janet Yellen, who Bloomberg reported was said to be getting the cold shoulder. Both the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and 10-year Treasury yields retreated from recent highs following the a Bloomberg report that Trump had been presented with a shortlist of Fed chair candidates, among them, ex-board member Kevin Warsh has criticized the central bank for trying to do too much with monetary policy while current Governor Jerome Powell has voted in sync with Chair Janet Yellen, who’s term is up in February and who was said to have gotten little support from Trump's group of close advisors. Following the report, Jerome Powell's odds of replacing Yellen soared to second behind Kevin Warsh, and were at 35% most recently, ahead of John Taylor and Gary Cohn, with Janet Yellen in 5th spot. While the latest September econ data out of Europe was solid, pushing the euro higher, Spanish assets tumbled as a Catalan spokesperson reiterates commitment to becoming a republic and the regional leader scheduled a press conference; the bund/bono spread was wider by 7bps and Spanish IBEX heavily underperforms as domestic banks decline. Spanish notes slumped on news that Catalonia’s leader Carles Puigdemont would release a statement at 9 p.m. CET after promising a formal announcement to regional lawmakers of the referendum results, triggering a 48-hour countdown to a unilateral declaration of independence. This prompted a sharp drop in Spanish assets, with the IBEX sliding as much as 2.5% on surging volumes more than twice 30DMA, led lower by Catalan exposed banks such as Banco de Sabadell (4.7%), CaixaBank (4.5%), Banco Santander (2.7%) and BBVA (2.7%); the drop sent the IBEX into correction territory now down 10% from intraday peak on May 8. "As far as market reaction is concerned the short-term effect is that investors would be reluctant to hold Spanish exposure ahead of this event risk,” said Antoine Bouvet, an interest-rate strategist at Mizuho. Others chimed in with a bearish take: "A pause in the global stock market rally is necessary and the political stress coming from Spain could become one of the triggers", said Jerome Troin-Lajous, cross-asset sales trader at Louis Capital Markets. "This could revive the grim view of some U.S. investors that Europe is a political can of worms." The deteriorating Spanish politics acted as a drag on positive read-across from the record highs on Wall Street, says Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group The EUR/USD continued to find bullish pressure, following the support seen yesterday around the 1.17 handle, triggered by option expiries in the pair, with around 4.6bln between 1.17 and 1.18. EUR has seen subdued price action through early European trade, as much anticipation lies on pending European Markit PMI data, alongside later commentary from ECB’s Draghi. Meanwhile, as Spain tumbled, Chinese (offshore) stocks soared and Hong Kong equities added to yesterday’s surge on optimism about monetary loosening. With the mainland closed this week for holiday, offshore Chinese shares extended gains to the highest in almost a decade, as most lenders continued to climb following the central bank’s decision to reduce their RRR in 2018, while real-estate developers rallied.  MSCI China Index rises 0.5%, at highest since December 2007; Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advances 0.8% in Hong Kong, taking 3-day gain to 4.8%; Hang Seng Index adds 0.7% for 3-day advance of 3.5%, most since July 2016. Property developers were among main gainers in Hong Kong, with Country Garden Holdings Co. rising 7.2% for 3-day gain of 9.1%. Sunac China Holdings Ltd, Shimao Property Holdings Ltd, China Vanke Co., Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. among top 10 performers on MSCI China, all rising at least 3.8%. Elsewhere in Asia, Japanese stocks were little changed, while Australia stocks declined -0.8%. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries decreased one basis point to 2.32 percent. Germany’s 10-year yield dipped two basis points to 0.45 percent, the lowest in more than a week. Britain’s 10-year yield advanced less than one basis point to 1.355 percent. Spain’s 10-year yield climbed five basis points to 1.77 percent. In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dipped 0.2 percent. The euro advanced 0.1 percent to $1.1756. The British pound gained 0.3 percent to $1.3272. The Japanese yen increased 0.3 percent to 112.56 per dollar. The DXY suffered overnight, as reports of President Trump’s shortlist for the forthcoming available Fed Chair seat began to price into markets. The likelihood of a banker with a dovish skew in their views is growing, with the candidates being spoken about: Current Fed Chair Yellen, Warsh, Powell, Cohn, and outside calls of notable dove Kashkari, alongside University of Stanford’s Taylor. Despite no official announcement, a Presidential aide declared that Trump is set to deliver a shortlist in the near future. DXY broke through its hourly ‘head and shoulders’ formation, trading below the neckline and consolidating just above 93.30. WTI and Brent crude futures remain pressured after yesterday’s API report which showed large builds in gasoline and cushing, despite the large than expected draw in the headline figure. Libya's Sharara oilfield (280k bpd) restarted this morning, according to a Libyan oil source. Libya National Oil Corp lifts force majeure on loadings of Sharara crude oil from Zawiya, according to sources.  Gold advanced 0.3 percent to $1,275.86 an ounce. Copper decreased 0.4 percent to $2.95 a pound, the lowest in a week. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.05% to 2,531.50 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 390.06 MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 162.97 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.3% to 537.25 Nikkei up 0.06% to 20,626.66 Topix up 0.01% to 1,684.56 Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 28,379.18 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,348.94 Sensex up 0.5% to 31,657.11 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,652.06 Kospi up 0.9% to 2,394.47 German 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 0.453% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1763 Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 1.872% Spanish 10Y yield rose 4.1 bps to 1.764% Brent Futures down 0.9% to $55.52/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,275.61 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.42 Bulletin Headline Summary Spanish assets slump amid the rift between Spain and Catalonia GBP supported by firm Services PMI Looking ahead, highlights include, US ADP as well as comments from Fed’s Yellen and ECB’s Draghi Top Overnight News Trump is heading to Las Vegas in the wake of a massacre, where he will confront recurring questions of whether restrictions on firearms can prevent another tragedy As part of an investigation into how Russian-linked operatives harnessed social media during the 2016 U.S. election, lawmakers are focusing on Google services including YouTube and Gmail Crisis in Spain: While King Felipe VI criticized Catalan separatists for “unacceptable disloyalty,” Catalan President Carles Puigdemont has promised a formal announcement of the referendum results, triggering a 48- hour countdown to a unilateral declaration of independence Punters see ex-Fed board member Kevin Warsh as the most likely nominee to take over from Janet Yellen, who is also running for another term: PredictIt.org Euro-zone composite PMI climbed to a four-month high 56.7 in September as new orders rose to a six- year high, a final reading showed; services PMI increased to 55.8, beating the flash number of 55.6 Spain’s King Felipe VI came to PM Rajoy’s support by telling Catalan separatists trying to break up his country that their “unacceptable disloyalty” has no place in any democratic state, as he vowed to keep Spain together Iron ore shipments from Australia are rising as miners boost cargoes, with vessel-tracking data signaling that nationwide flows expanded again last month to near an all-time high of 74.36 million metric tons Trading of European stocks on dark markets will probably triple as a result of MiFID II overhaul, the opposite of what architects of the law intended, as the new rules give some venues flexibility in how they price sharesTrump Aides Are Said to Deliver Shortlist of Fed Candidates; Fed Chair Hopeful Warsh Draws Opposition From Left and Right  Trump Suggests Puerto Rico’s Debt Will Need to Be Wiped Out MiFID Is Seen Tripling Dark Trading in Europe as New Venues Soar Asia stocks traded mostly higher after another record setting session in the US where all major indices printed fresh all-time highs for a consecutive day and automakers advanced on strong September car sales data. The positive momentum supported the Nikkei 225 (+0.1%) but with gains capped on a firmer JPY. Hang Seng (+0.8%) continued to lead the upside in the region as financials remained underpinned by lower reserve requirements for next year and ASX 200 (-0.8%) lagged with energy names reeling after oil briefly slipped below USD 50/bbl to a 2-week low. 10yr JGBs traded higher from the open as yields declined across the curve and with prices also supported by the BoJ’s presence for JPY 990bln in JGBs ranging from 1yr-10yr maturities. World Bank raised 2017 China GDP growth forecast to 6.7% from 6.5% and raised 2018 forecast to 6.4% from 6.3%. Top Asian News China’s Reserve Cut Excites Investors as Analysts Cautious HSBC Lowers Hong Kong Stocks to Underweight Amid Tightening India Seeks to Rework More LNG Contracts Amid Surplus, GAIL Says RBA May Raise Rates Even If Inflation Below Target, Edwards Says Russia to Challenge U.S. LNG Wave With Sevenfold Boost in Output Unusual Ltd. Shares Rise to Record High; Co. Receives SGX Query In Europe, the IBEX is the underperformer, slipping 2% with Spanish banks leading the declines. Aside from Spain, European bourses are trading higher marginally, with the FTSE 100 supported by the rise in Tesco shares, following positive earnings and the supermarket restoring their dividend. DAX outperforming as German participants play catch up after the market closure for Unity day. Spanish bonds taking a whack this morning as the stand-off between Spain and Catalonia looks to take a turn for the worse with the Catalonian Leader Puidgemont holding a news conference at 8pm London time. 10yr Bono’s rose as much as 7bps to levels last seen in March, moving within close proximity to 1.8%. Bono’s unsurprisingly underperform against all major counterparts with the GE-SP spread widening by 6.6bps. Top European News Catalans Dismiss Spanish King’s Attacks as Police Chief Probed Pirelli Shares Fall After Return to Stock Market Following IPO Stoxx 600 Turns Negative as Spanish Stock Selloff Intensifies In currencies, the US Dollar suffered overnight, as reports of President Trump’s shortlist for the forthcoming available Fed Chair seat began to price into markets. The likelihood of a banker with a dovish skew in their views is growing, with the candidates being spoken about: Current Fed Chair Yellen, Warsh, Powell, Cohn, and outside calls of notable dove Kashkari, alongside University of Stanford’s Taylor.Despite no official announcement, a Presidential aide declared that Trump is set to deliver a shortlist in the near future. DXY broke through its hourly ‘head and shoulders’ formation, trading below the neckline and consolidating just above 93.30. The EUR/USD continued to find bullish pressure, following the support seen yesterday around the 1.17 handle, triggered by option expiries in the pair, with around 4.6bln between 1.17 and 1.18. EUR has seen subdued price action through early European trade, as much anticipation lies on pending European Markit PMI data, alongside later commentary from ECB’s Draghi. In the UK, political uncertainties have once again flooded into Sterling, with contradicting reports, as yesterday saw David Davis stick to past rhetoric, stating that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’. However, some positive developments are evident in terms of Brexit negotiations as FT reports circulated that the UK and EU have struck an agreement on dividing up WTO quotas that govern the import of farm products. GBP is marginally higher against its major counterparts, EUR/GBP has held yesterday’s high, with offers likely stacked at the 0.8880 level and trades inside the previous day’s trading range. Cable sees similar action, residing inside of Tuesday’s range, with offers touted between 1.3300-13350. Today’s services PMI reading printed firmer than analyst estimates, subsequently pushing GBP to intraday highs of 1.3281, while focus is now turning to PM May’s closing Tory conference remarks at circa 11:30. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures remain pressured after yesterday’s API report which showed large builds in gasoline and cushing, despite the large than expected draw in the headline figure. Libya's Sharara oilfield (280k bpd) restarted this morning, according to a Libyan oil source. Libya National Oil Corp lifts force majeure on loadings of Sharara crude oil from Zawiya, according to sources. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.5% 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 135,000, prior 237,000 9:45am: Markit US Services PMI, est. 55.1, prior 55.1 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, prior 54.6 10am: ISM Non-Manf. Composite, est. 55.5, prior 55.3 3:15pm: Yellen Gives Welcoming Remarks at Community Banking Event    

03 октября, 16:05

Malibu Boats, Campbell Soup, Toyota Motor, Micron Tech and Luxoticca Group highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

Malibu Boats, Campbell Soup, Toyota Motor, Micron Tech and Luxoticca Group highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

03 октября, 13:57

Global Stocks Hit Fresh Record High As Dollar Rally Fizzles

It's deja vu all over again. In a repeat of yesterday's session, where US equities and the dollar levitated in a one-way trade, Tuesday's muted session - where in addition to closed China and South Korean markets, Germany's Dax is also shut for holiday - has seen early dollar and European equity strength, while the S&P is set for new record highs amid higher E-minis and a VIX that is again lower after 5 consecutive days of declines. It is also another day for global records: world shares hit their latest all time high on Tuesday, while the dollar was the highest in 6 weeks as encouraging U.S. data lifted it in tandem with global bond yields. MSCI’s 47-country ‘All-World’ index was pushed to the fresh peak as Europe’s main bourses added to gains made in Asia and after Wall Street set its own record close again overnight. It was the tenth new high since late July alone and extends the year’s blizzard of records that started in February to more than 40 according to Reuters, with no sign it is about to run out of steam yet. That said, both European stocks and the dollar lost some momentum on Tuesday as concerns reemerged about the probability of Trump's tax cuts. The euro drifted as tensions bubbled in Catalonia, with the common currency sliding briefly below 1.16 before rebounding. Europe's Stoxx 600 Index was mixed, and unchanged so far on Tuesday despite US stocks hitting new all time highs and amid a rally in Asian markets. Materials found a bid in Europe, as the sectoroutperforms, led by Anglo American, buoyed by its upgrade at HSBC. Yesterday’s volatility seen in Spain, and in the IBEX has slowed, with the Spanish stock index trading marginally lower this morning, as many investors await clarification and insight into further developments in regards to the Catalonian region. Japanese shares closed at their highest in more than two years, while Chinese stocks in Hong Kong surged, reopening after a one day vacation and boosted by the weekend's targeted RRR-cut by the PBOC. Developing nation equities also jumped. SEB investment management’s global head of asset allocation Hans Peterson pointed to strong economic and trade data and signs that firms in large economies like the United States and Europe were finally increasing investment spending. “The fun thing about that is that is will take over from the consumption cycle and means the (global business growth) cycle will be longer than consensus. So I think that is the mechanism that is driving equities at the moment. So we are long equities, we are long emerging markets and we are long Europe. We are risk on.” The greenback pared an increase but remained higher against almost all its major counterparts. As Bloomberg's FX strategist Vassilis Karamanlis writes this morning, dollar bulls may need to wait for U.S. jobs data and a speech by Janet Yellen to find the fresh catalyst that could finally push the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index above its 2017 trendline resistance. The gauge pared early gains as it failed to escape this year’s downtrend. Further hawkish remarks by the Federal Reserve chair or strong employment data due Wednesday may do the trick, yet for now investors are happy to take some chips off the table. The dollar's inability to breach the technical resistance weighed on sentiment as the euro and pound decisively rose from their day lows, which saw the common currency below $1.1700 for the first time since Aug. 17, and sterling at the lowest in nearly three weeks. The market remains long gamma in euro-dollar and thus any dips are bound to find fading interest. As a result, profit taking was the name of the game as soon as London trading was underway, according to currency traders. Still, Goldman analysts released a report overnight, in which they see the greenback as having more room to run, thanks to solid growth prospects and the chance that Fed interest-rate hikes will prove more aggressive than market players currently anticipate. As a result, Goldman sees the dollar rising particularly against the euro, which could be hurt by political concerns amid the Spanish woes over Catalonia and by elections in Austria and Italy in coming months. Meanwhile, the yen weakened to 113.20 per dollar, just a breath away from its Sept. 27 low at 113.26. While USD/JPY follows the market’s latest narrative of a strong dollar, risk reversals buck the trend, diving further into bearish territory for the greenback. Yen calls find good demand on structures expiring post the Oct. 22 election in Japan, while calendar trades are also in play. “Investors have capacity to buy as the fiscal second half begins, with dip- buying potential for 10-year yields around 0.8%," says Tadashi Matsukawa, head of fixed-income investment at PineBridge Investments Japan; "Even with strong data, inflation is subdued.” "With views strongly intact that BOJ will cap the 10- year yield around 11 basis points, 8 basis points is where most investors are looking to buy as there is very little downside risk," says Satoshi Shimamura, head of rates and markets in the investment strategy department at MassMutual Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo; "Some may even wait until 9 basis points. Until all this appetite has been met, it’s hard to see yields falling.” Cable traded near session lows in the mid 1.32 range after EU's Barnier said there is "still a serious divergence on financial settlement on Brexit" while European president Jean-Claude Juncker said the UK "have not yet made sufficient progress" in Brexit talks. Not helping was news that U.K. construction unexpectedly shrank in September, moving below the the 50 level that divides expansion from contraction. Japanese bonds were mixed after a soft auction for benchmark 10-year notes as investors remained cautious about buying at the start of the fiscal second-half. Borrowing costs across the euro zone nudged higher too. Southern European bonds continued to underperform meanwhile as political tensions remained in Spain after Sunday’s independence vote in Catalonia was marred by police violence. In the US, the 10Y yield rose 2bps to 2.36%, while a stronger view that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rate for a third time this year in December kept two-year U.S. government bond yields hovering at a 9-year high. WTI and Brent crude futures have seen subdued trade following the 2% sell-off seen in oil markets yesterday, which many touted to be on the news that OPEC oil output had risen last month by 50,000 BPD. The bearish push was halted by resting bids ahead of 50.00/bbl, as the support level was evident. "The fourth quarter is not too kind to the price of oil, as we switch from summer demand to expectations of winter demand,” said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance in Sydney. Gold’s bearish September continued into October, as safe haven flows further reverse, with the market now testing the1268.00 area, which was prevalent before the North Korea related rally. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.06% to 2,527.75 E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.1% VIX Index drops 1.2% after five days of declines MSCI Asia up 0.5% to 162.19 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.6% to 534.62 Nikkei up 1.1% to 20,614.07 Topix up 0.7% to 1,684.46 Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 28,173.21 Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,348.94 Sensex up 0.6% to 31,483.30 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,701.44 Kospi up 0.9% to 2,394.47 STOXX Europe 600 unchanged at 390.12 German 10Y yield rose 3.4 bps to 0.485% Euro up 0.08% to $1.1742 Italian 10Y yield rose 4.5 bps to 1.863% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 1.711% Brent Futures up 0.04% to $56.14/bbl Gold spot down 0.01% to $1,270.96 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 93.65 Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk In FX, the Greenback’s gains have slowed against its major counterparts. RBA kept rates unchanged as expected and highlighted the firmer currency EU equities trade subdued following the Nikkei seeing highest level since Aug’16, as a weaker JPY aids the push Looking ahead, highlights include: US vehicle sales and APIs Top Headline News The president will travel on Wednesday to Las Vegas after the mass shooting there. The 64-year-old gunman had no connection to international militant groups, the FBI said, rebutting a claim of responsibility by Islamic State. The White House ruled out talks with North Korea over its nuclear arsenal just days after Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said U.S. was in direct communication with Pyongyang. This was the latest sign that Trump and his top diplomat have different views on the best way to address North Korea’s accelerating nuclear and ballistic missile programs The White House is showing "softness" on ending a $1.3 trillion federal tax deduction filers get for their state and local taxes, Senator Bob Corker said Monday, questioning whether GOP has fortitude for tax overhaul Tesla Falters With Model 3 as Initial Output Trails Forecast Qatar Fund Is Said to Weigh Asset Sales as It Looks Homeward Equifax Says Additional 2.5m U.S. Consumers Potentially Impacted Crisis in Spain: separatist activists are taking to the streets of Barcelona to protest the police violence that marked Sunday’s vote and reinforce their demands for a split with Spain after winning an illegal referendum at the weekend Some analysts are projecting a small increase in auto sales for the month, which would be a first in 2017. September has one more selling day than a year ago, though, so even if the actual number of vehicles sold ticks up, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) probably will drop again Equifax Inc.’s former CEO Richard Smith, who stepped down on Sept. 26, is expected to be the sole witness at a U.S. House Energy and Commerce subcommittee hearing to examine the company’s massive data breach The dollar rose for a second day after U.S. factory data released Monday beat estimates, supporting the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The Catalan independence vote and speculation about a more hawkish new Fed chief continued to support the dollar Asia equity markets were mostly higher with Hang Seng (+2.25%) the outperformer as it played catch up on return from holiday and took its first opportunity to celebrate news of the PBoC’s targeted RRR cut which according to sellside calculations will release hundreds of billions of liquidity into the (stock) market. The Nikkei 225 (+1.05%) was also positive with sentiment underpinned amid upside in USD/JPY and after the fresh intraday records set by all the major US indices. Conversely, Shanghai Comp and KOSPI are shut for the entire week, while ASX 200 (-0.6%) underperformed with weakness in energy names after oil slipped over 2% yesterday and with financials dampened after QBE raised it catastrophe claims allowance due to the recent hurricanes. Top Asian News Anil Ambani’s Telecom Unit Heads for Record Low as Merger Fails Kansai Electric Bellwether for Koike’s ‘Party of Hope’ China Stock Rally Finds a New Gear as Shares Soar Most in a Year Mobike, Ofo Investors Are Said in Talks to Merge China Startups Steel Boom Drives 400% Surge for Suppliers of Critical Niche India Bond-Related Flows Keeping Rupee Losses in Check: Traders Japan’s Corporate Foreign Bond Issuance Hits Record on M&A In Europe, equity markets trade largely sideways across the board, as many Eurex participants are off their desks amid the German holiday. European bourses have failed to gain traction from Asian and American sessions, where the Nikkei hit its highest level since August 2015, following another record for the S&P500. Materials have however found a bid in Europe, as the sector outperforms, led by Anglo American, buoyed by its upgrade at HSBC. Elsewhere, yesterday’s volatility seen in Spain, and in the IBEX has slowed, with the Spanish stock index trading marginally lower this morning, as many investors await clarification and insight into further developments in regards to the Catalonian region. Fixed Income markets have continued to trade bearishly, although volumes are lighter due to the German Unity Day Holiday, alongside a day that lacks much in the way of underlying tier one data releases. Gilts did nudge higher on the back of the surprise contraction in the UK construction PMI. Top European News Ryanair Adds Fewest Customers Since March After Scrapped Flights Spain’s Crisis Deepens as Catalonia Secession Clock Ticks Down May’s Brexit Budget Offer Is Said to Be Conditional on Trade EU Demands More U.K. Brexit Clarity Before Approving Trade Talks U.K. Construction Unexpectedly Shrinks as Confidence Weakens UBS Starts French JV for Family Office, Private Equity In currencies, cable was offered following the UK Markit Construction PMI, falling below 50.00 and printing the lowest figure since July 2016, at 48.1. Cable fell through yesterday’s low as a result, and August’s high could now behave as temporary support for the pair. The USD has given back ground against its major counterparts, following the bullish pressure seen through yesterday’s European and US sessions. The DXY fell short of the push toward 94.00, as EUR/USD found support at the 1.17 handle. USD/JPY saw a surge post European trade yesterday, with the pair breaching 113.00, as a clear break of the long-term 2017 resistance trendline has been confirmed. Investors will look toward July highs around 114.50 as the next bullish target. The outperformance in the Nikkei was spurred by the increased bullish pressure in USD/JPY, with talk of large fund interest in the pair, which continues to look towards September’s high, with further resistance likely at the 114.50 area. For the Euro, global political conditions have aided to the support seen in the EUR this morning, as Spanish/ Catalonian unrest wanes, with aforementioned bids arriving in EUR/USD. EUR/GBP has largely moved sideways as the greenback’s volatility dictated trade. Meanwhile for the OZ and Kiwi, the RBA was the headline of the Asian session, where rates were kept on hold at 1.50%, as expected. Concerns of the economy continued, with the bank stating that a strengthening AUD would slow economy and restrain price pressure. Further reiterating ‘it judges steady policy is consistent with the growth and inflation target. AUD saw a bearish push on the comments, as the growing currency concerns further diminish the likelihood for a RBA move. AUD/USD slipped through 0.78 and looks back toward the 2016 trading range. Kiwi suffered overnight, as New Zealand NZIER Confidence fell to an 18-month low, triggering some early Asian selling, as further pressure was witnessed as a result of the dovish skew from the RBA In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen subdued trade following the 2% sell-off seen in oil markets yesterday, which many touted to be on the news that OPEC oil output had risen last month by 50,000 BPD. The bearish push was halted by resting bids ahead of 50.00/bbl, as the support level was evident. Gold’s bearish September continued into October, as safe haven flows further reverse, with the market now testing the 1268.00 area, which was prevalent before the North Korea related rally. Looking at the day ahead, we have the Eurozone PPI (0.3%, Exp. 0.1% mom,; 2.5% Y/Y, exp. 2.3%) and UK’s Markit construction PMI this morning (48.1, Exp. 51.0, Last 51.1). Over in the US, there is total and domestic vehicle sales stats for September. The BOE will publish its record of the Financial policy committee. Over in the US, the Fed’s Powell will speak on regulatory reform. US Event Calendar Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.2m, prior 16m; Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13m, prior 12.5m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Yesterday saw a battle between safe haven core bond markets wanting to rally or hold in after the Catalonian vote and equities wanting to rally due to the generally strong PMIs/ISMs. Below we update our PMI vs YoY equity analysis after yesterday's numbers and on balance many equity markets are now 'cheap' albeit with the usual caveats. Before we get there let’s recap the main market moves and stories. Turning first to the initial reactions following Catalonia’s independence vote. The EU spokesman Margaritis Schinas noted “under the Spanish constitution, the vote was not legal” and as President Juncker noted earlier “this is an internal matter for Spain that has to be dealt with in line with the constitutional order of Spain”. Locally, the leader of the Ciudadanos party (Albert Rivera – ally of PM Rajoy) called for new regional elections as “this is the only possible way we can truly go to vote and not be kidnapped as we are at the moment by this coup against democracy”. In terms of the markets reactions, Spain’s IBEX sold off 1.21% (the weakest day since August) - led by the financials sector, the Euro dropped -0.69% and Spain’s 10y bond yields jumped 8.8bp. Elsewhere, peripheral bonds were also impacted, with Italian and Portugal’s 10y yields up c4bp, but core bond yields were lower to little changed, with UST 10y up +0.7bp, while Bunds (-1.3bp), OATs (-1bp) and Gilts (-3.5bp) fell slightly. Notably, Bunds traded with an intraday range of c5bp, before the spread between Bunds and Spanish 10y yields settled at 124bp – highest since early June. For those who may have missed it, DB’s Marc’s De-Muzion published a report “Catalonia: What next?” He notes that if Catalan government declares independence (potentially on 6 October), then the Spanish government has little choice but to trigger Article 155 and withdraw regional government’s authority in Catalonia and call for early regional elections. If the Catalan government does not declare independence, the regional government would most likely dissolve and early regional elections would be called. Ultimately, the solution to the Catalan situation has to come via lengthy, constructive  dialogue and negotiations. Overnight, White House spokeswoman Sanders has said “now is not the time to talk” with North Korea over its nuclear arsenal but that’s not really having much impact. Markets are trading on the firmer side in Asia with the ASX 200 down -0.41% being an exception while the Nikkei is up +0.77%. The Hang Seng has jumped +1.59%, partly reflecting a catch up effect as the market reopened post holidays as well the delayed positive reactions following cuts to bank reserve requirements (Banks +2.87%) and stronger than expected Chinese manufacturing PMI over the weekend. Note that Chinese bourses and the Kospi are closed for the week. Turning to President Trump's tax plan. National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn has provided a bit more clarity, noting that the cUS$2.6trln of offshore profits sitting in lower tax countries may be subjected to a one-time tax in the “10% range”, although tax industry experts suggest 15% may be more likely. Elsewhere, Moody’s has confirmed that the current tax plan is “likely credit negative” for the US government as “tax cuts would not be offset by equivalent cuts to spending”. Quickly recapping yesterday’s market performance now. US bourses strengthened further, with the S&P up +0.39% to another record high, with gains led by the materials, health care and financials sector. Elsewhere, the Dow (+0.68%) and Nasdaq (+0.32%) also advanced modestly. Over in Europe, excluding Spain’s IBEX (-1.21%), other regional indices were all higher, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.51%), DAX (+0.58%), FTSE 100 (+0.90%) and FTSE MIB (+0.51%) seeing firm days. Notably, the VIX has remained below 10 for the fourth consecutive day and is now (9.45) the lowest since late July and getting closer to the all time lows again after the North Korea wobbles destroyed the peace in early August. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index gained 0.52% following the stronger than expected ISMs, while Sterling fell 0.91% versus the Greenback, likely impacted by the softer manufacturing PMIs and concerns on political stability as the annual Conservative Party conference began. In commodities, WTI oil fell -2.11% following reports of higher OPEC output last month, in part as Libya’s oil fields are back online coupled with a lower OPEC production compliance rate of 82% (vs. 88% previous). Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly lower (Gold -0.67%; Silver -0.42%), while other LME base metals (Zinc +2.34%; Copper +0.19%; Aluminium -0.05%) were broadly higher yesterday. Away from the markets and onto central banker’s commentaries. On inflation, the ECB’s Praet noted the “overall inflation developments, despite the solid (economic) growth, have remained subdued” and that “a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressure to gradually build-up”. Notably, he was quite vocal on forward guidance, saying “….in conditions in which uncertainty is high, frontloading the accumulation of a given stock of purchases more forcefully signals the central bank’s commitment to inject the degree of accommodation necessary to support the recovery..”. Over in the US, the Fed’s Kashkari reiterated his preference to “not to raise rates again until we actually hit 2% core PCE inflation” and that “I believe the most likely cause of persistently low inflation are additional domestic labour market slack and falling inflation expectations”. Elsewhere, data wise yesterday the most significant releases of note were the September manufacturing PMIs and ISM data in Europe and the US. With regards to the former, the final print for the Euro area was revised down a very modest 0.1pts to 58.1 however that print still puts it at the highest level in more than six and a half years. As a reminder, the August reading was 57.4. What was perhaps most notable was the lack of any negative impact of a stronger euro which you would expect to have the most impact on the manufacturing sector. Indeed the new orders component rose another 0.2pts to 58.5 and a 3-month high. The employment component also hit a 20-year high at 56.5 and the backlog of work was also up at a new cyclical high. At a country level, Germany was left unrevised at 60.6 and France was revised up 0.1pts to 56.1 – putting both at 77- month highs. There were also significant milestones hit for the Netherlands (79- month high) and Greece (111-month high). Meanwhile, the data for the periphery revealed a much better than expected reading for Spain (+1.9pts to 54.3 vs. 53.0 expected – a 3 month high) offset by a slightly softer than expected reading for Italy (unchanged at 56.3 vs. 56.8 expected). The UK also saw a 0.8pt decline to 55.9 (vs. 56.2 expected). Across the pond, there was a huge positive surprise in the ISM reading for the US which came in at 60.8 which compares to expectations for 58.1. The reading was also up a full 2pts from August and is the highest since May 2004. New orders also surged to 64.6 (from 60.3) and hit the highest in 7- months while employment printed at 60.3 and the highest since March 2011. The manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 53.1 (+0.1pts from the flash). Notably, the two recent storms had a modestly positive impact on the index by causing longer lead times for supplier deliveries and additional new orders, yet  the underlying improvement was still broad-based across the survey. Looking at the day ahead, we have the Eurozone PPI (0.1% mom, 2.3% yoy expected) and UK’s Markit construction PMI this morning. Over in the US, there is total and domestic vehicle sales stats for September. Onto other events, there will be numerous speakers at the UK’s Conservative Party conference, including: Home secretary Rudd, Trade secretary Fox, Brexit secretary David Davis and Foreign secretary Johnson. Then the BOE will publish its record of the Financial policy committee. Over in the US, the Fed’s Powell will speak on regulatory reform.

03 октября, 13:12

Главные новости

Главные новости- Европарламент обсудит ситуацию с Каталонией на сегодняшнем саммите. Лидер испанских социалистов Санчез призывает премьера Рахоя начать прямые переговоры с главой Каталонии Пучдемонтом. Агентство Moody’s оценивает эскалацию как негатив для кредитного рейтинга Испании, но видит низкую вероятность независимости Каталонии. - Представитель ФРС Каплан (скорее ястреб с правом голоса) без предубеждений относится к декабрьскому заседанию, не считает, что необходимо увидеть больше инфляции перед повышением ставки, но “верит” в приближение инфляции к цели в ближайшие 2-3 года. - Министр Брекзита Дэвис “планирует уйти в отставку” в 2019 году и хочет, чтобы министр иностранных дел Борис Джонсон управлял дальнейшим переходным периодом. - Дефицит бюджета Италии во 2-ом квартале с начала года составил 2.4% ВВП против 2.59% год назад. - Глава ЦБ Греции Стоурнарас хочет привлечь 12 млрд. евро за счет приватизаций до 2022 года, чтобы понизить цель по первичному дефициту бюджета до 2%. Глава Еврогруппы Диссельблюм заявил, что необходимо избежать ранних выборов в Греции. - Европейская Банковская Ассоциация начнет работу во Франкфурте (переедет из Лондона) в следующем августе, сообщает Boersenzeitung . - Агентство Moody’s оценивает налоговые планы Трампа как “скорее кредитно-негативные”. - ЦБ Австралии оставил ставку неизменной на уровне 1.5%, как и ожидалось.Источник: FxTeam

03 октября, 12:20

Резервный банк Австралии оставил процентную ставку на отметке 1,5%

Во вторник Резервный банк Австралии объявил о решении сохранить основную процентную ставку без изменений на рекордно низком уровне 1,5%. Данное решение соответствовало рыночным ожиданиям. Отметим, что процентная ставка в Австралии находится на текущей отметке с сентября 2016 года. Резервный банк Австралии поэтапно понижал процентную ставку на 25 базисных пункта в мае и августе прошлого года. "С учетом имеющейся информации Совет банка считает, что сохранение текущего курса денежно-кредитной политики будет соответствовать достижению устойчивого роста экономики и целевого уровня инфляции с течением времени", - отмечается в заявлении центрального банка. Резервный банк Австралии ожидает постепенное ускорение темпов инфляции по мере роста национальной экономики. Также центральный банк ожидает небольшое снижение уровня безработицы в течение ближайших нескольких лет. "Рост обменного курса будет способствовать продолжающемуся снижению ценового давления в экономике. Этот фактор также может оказать влияние на объем промышленного производства и занятость. Мы ожидаем, что повышение обменного курса приведет к тому, что темпы экономической активности и инфляции окажутся ниже текущих прогнозов", - заявил председатель Резервного банка Австралии Филип Лоу. Источник: FxTeam