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19 декабря 2017, 02:21

The 10 "Grey Swans" Events For 2018

One of the traditional push backs against attempts to predict "black swan" events is that they are by default unpredictable, rendering the entire exercise moot. However, for the second year in a row, Nomura's Bilal Hafeez has found a loophole, or rather loop-animal: the grey swan. As Hafeez writes, while he would like to be able to predict black swans, by definition that is impossible. "However, its close cousin the grey swan can be foreseen. These are the unlikely but impactful events that, in our opinion, lie outside the usual base case and risk scenarios of the analyst community. So as we did last year we have put on our creative hats and have come up with 10 potential grey swan events for 2018." For the purpose of this exercise, Nomura avoided the more widely discussed - and more probable scenarios such as the Italian elections, US Impeachment risk, North Korea conflict, which it covered in its event risk radar series, and has instead selected topics that have not been as widely discussed. "Needless to say, none of them are our base case, but we think it is better to be prepared than not." So without further adoNomura's potential grey swan events for 2018 include: Shock 1: What the movies tell us about 2018 Shock 2: The “Amazonification” of inflation Shock 3: 2% inflation targeting goes out of style Shock 4: A United States of Europe Shock 5: Another UK political turnaround Shock 6: Bitcoin starts moving other markets Shock 7: Housing market decline = rate cuts? Shock 8: A bigger proxy war in the Middle East Shock 9: “Get to the chopper!” Shock 10: Credit: stealth leverage pops? Here are the details for each of the swans: 1. What the movies tell us about 2018 Films may end up being better predictors of grey swans than research analysts. Remember it was a film that first predicted a black president of the US (The Man, 1972), the rise of China as an economic powerhouse (Americathon, 1979) and the rise of tabloid TV (Network, 1976). As it happens, we’ve found three notable movies that are based in 2018, and here’s what they foretell. The 2009 film, Terminator Salvation, is set specifically in 2018. The backdrop is a conflict between Skynet and the human resistance. For the uninitiated Skynet is a computer system developed for the US military by Cyberdyne Systems. The system was intended to safeguard the world by pre-empting attacks. However, it soon developed artificial general intelligence and decided that humans were the biggest threat to the planet. Skynet among other things could control mobile phones, drones and cyborgs/ Terminators (or as Arnie says in Terminator 2: “I'm a cybernetic organism. Living tissue over a metal endoskeleton”). It would be easy to dismiss this 2018 scenario, but let’s run through the necessary ingredients for it to emerge. We would need the existence of drones, computer-controlled power grids and networked transportation and food systems. Layered on top of this, we would need AI/machine learning capabilities. What would make the system much more fragile would be the replacement of all physical forms of mediums of exchange such as gold by say a cryptocurrency …hmmm, is Skynet reading this? If this isn’t scary enough then 2018 could prove to be like it was depicted in the 1975 film Rollerball. This is when the world is run by a global energy monopoly, Energy Corporation. Energy Corp wishes to replace warfare with a violent sport called Rollerball, which consists of two teams racing around a circular track on roller skates attacking each other. The plot of the movie hinges around the star player of Rollerball becoming too popular for Energy Corp and they try to get him killed in a match. He, of course, survives and reveals the nature of Energy Corp to the world. The essence of the movie is that behind any veneer of democracy and competition, there lays a corporate imperative to distract the masses with mindless and often violent entertainment. To be honest, many would subscribe to this view already! But to reach the scales of Rollerball control, we would need one or two global companies emerging to dominate the world – ideally in sectors that can distract us with fake news, fun games and constant distractions. Surely we’re not close to that are we? Finally, I can’t ignore the 2012 film Iron Sky. Don’t laugh, but the plot revolves around a manned mission to the dark side of moon in 2018, where the descendants of Nazis are discovered. These Moon Nazis take some technology from the astronauts and invade Earth. Film connoisseurs will know that this is an unlikely scenario as the 2011 film Transformers Dark Side of the Movie already told us that the Decepticon transformers are on the dark side of the moon. They would have easily wiped out the Moon Nazis. But hang on, it would also mean that there would now be a fleet of Decepticons ready to invade the Earth in 2018… * * * 2. The “Amazonification” of inflation 2018 is expected to be the year when inflation kicks back. But the recent drag on US inflation has been caused by the sharp decline in goods price inflation and perhaps the “Amazon effect” won’t stop there. If you look at the amount of column inches dedicated to the disruption Amazon has brought upon industry you’d be surprised to learn that it still only operates in 14 countries. For two of them the focus until recently has been on just selling books. But to focus on this one company would do disservice to how far the deflationary force of technological disruption can go on a global basis. Alibaba’s sales on “singles day” is four times bigger than Amazon’s Cyber Monday or Black Friday. Latin America’s Mercado Libre operates in far more countries and Silicon Valley is yet to replicate the take-up rate of Kenya’s M-pesa or scope of services offered by China’s Wechat. Innovation and disruption take place in many forms and under many different banners, so to quantify their impact we need to think bigger. There are now more mobile phone subscriptions in the world than people, rising to a level where the world’s poorest households are more likely to have access to a mobile phone than to clean water. But the internet is still in its early growth phase. The number of active mobile broadband subscriptions in the world has only just breached the 50% mark. We are still far away from the world being truly “connected.” The first wave of global internet connectivity coincided with the rise of globalisation when China joined the WTO. This saw a marked moderation in goods price inflation in the developed economies. Right now there has been an impressive rise in smartphone ownership in the developing world; there is clearly a second wave of internet connectivity taking place. The argument for lower goods price inflation is clear; with smart phones, not only is online shopping more convenient, but while trying out goods in typical bricks and mortar stores you can decide to buy online for less (“Showrooming”). It’s no wonder the rate of online retail sales in the developed world is picking up at a pace (Figure 2). But there is an argument to say that the technological dampening of inflation may be more persistent than before. The outsourcing of services abroad is easier, the gig economy seems here to stay, AI is on the rise and the disruption from the widespread adoption of 3D printers or indeed cryptocurrencies is yet to be witnessed. Policymakers are split on the matter though, the ECB’s Mario Draghi said there was little evidence that e-commerce was depressing inflation, while the Kansas City Fed’s work (from 2004) on the matter points to clear higher productivity gains and therefore lower inflation. But FOMC members are still using a shotgun-like approach to explaining why inflation has been persistently low with long lists of possible but unquantifiable reasons. Further disruption and disinflationary pressures remain a clear risk into 2018. Our focus would be in Australia, where mobile broadband speeds are the second highest among the G10, inflation remains historically low and … Amazon has just opened its doors for one-day delivery services. * * * 3. 2% inflation targeting goes out of style “We may need to adjust monetary policy frameworks accordingly” (BIS, 2017). While inflation targets of around 2% are often viewed by markets to be an immutable force of nature, the truth is they are a relatively new phenomenon. First adopted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in 1989, as recently as 1997 there were only five recognised inflation targeters – New Zealand, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Australia. According to the Bank of England, there are currently 29 countries that are fully-fledged inflation targeters (not including the ECB, which avoids describing itself as such). So while we may take it as a given that inflation targeting is here to stay, a longer view could reveal it to be nothing more than an economic fad. In time, inflation targeting may either be jettisoned or modified. Since the GFC, price-level targeting or nominal GDP targeting have been popular subjects of debate since the GFC hit. In the US in particular, an active discussion has been taking place on  these fronts. One reason for the discussions are that given the low natural rate of interest, and hence a low terminal rate, the Fed would have limited ability to use short rates to battle the next downturn. Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has advocated a hybrid inflation-target/price level target approach, especially for times when short rates are near the zero bound. Elsewhere, consideration has been given to lowering the inflation target. There are two key reasons for doing this. The first is the lack of success in hitting an inflation target over recent years. If we look at key inflation targets for the G4, US core PCE inflation has averaged 1.7% since 2000 (and 1.5% since 2010). In the euro area CPI inflation has managed 1.75% (1.3%) and Japanese core CPI -0.1% (1.1%). Only the UK seems to be hitting its target with 2% since 2000 (2.2% since 2010). The whole point of an inflation target is that it builds confidence in where inflation will be in the future. Constant misses, consistent in direction will erode that trust and at some point it become better to admit defeat and shift lower. The other reason for considering a lower inflation target is demographics. According to the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing, within 20 years many countries in Asia and Europe will see a situation where the largest population cohort is 65+ and the average age approaches 50. For those in their sunset years, is inflation a pure cost eroding the purchasing power of their savings with little benefit for the economically inactive? So while central banks will (for now) likely retain their independence on the means to hit inflation targets, the executive / legislative powers in some countries could see political benefits in lowering this to 1%. * * * 4: A United States of Europe 2018 presents a unique political opportunity for the European Union and in particular those countries within the euro area to forge closer ties and perhaps embark upon a political journey that will end with the creation of a ‘United States of Europe’ – the longstanding dream of many federalists within the continent. The reasons for the propitious backdrop are threefold. Less focus on domestic politics: There are still some near-term hurdles to be overcome (Germany actually getting a government, an Italian election in H1 2018 and Catalonian elections next week). If these are resolved, we have a decent gap with no major elections in major countries for some time (Germany 2021, France 2022, the Netherlands 2021, Spain 2020 and Italy…?). Not only does this free up bandwidth for key European political actors to think about European matters, but may also end the de facto ban on any European treaty change that has been in place in recent years. Against the backdrop of waning support for populist parties, an axis of Merkel / Macron, supported by pro-European leaders in other countries could look to define their legacies by driving forwards with an agenda of European federalism (it probably will not be called that though). Brexit in the background: With one of the European Union’s largest countries deciding to go its own way (kind of) it naturally raises the question of what relationship other European countries want to have. If the answer is to have more integration and provide a positive case for a United States of Europe this would be the perfect riposte to Brexit and some of the nationalist, populist politics that have afflicted parts of the continent in recent years as well. Fixing the roof while the sun is shining: One of the lessons learnt from the global financial crisis and the euro crisis that followed is to fix the roof while the sun is shining and don’t wait for when it rains. European growth is at its strongest in years. The EU unemployment rate has fallen from 11% in 2013 to 7.4% currently and shows no signs of stopping. The low in the previous boom period was 6.8% and at the current run rate that could be achieved in under 12 months. Increasing the pace of integration will bring with it some risks and possibly even some J-curve impacts. This suggests there is no better time to undertake this project than now. Something like a United States of Europe cannot be built in a year. But steps on a path that the market understands to be leading there can be taken. A grey swan event for 2018 is that European politicians understand the temporal opportunity they have been given, and undertaking such a path starting with a treaty change that leads to increased mutualisation of debts and sharing of risks. It is important to note that comments from key European leaders are heading in this direction. You can see it in the rhetoric of Jean-Claude Juncker’s State of the Union address, Macron’s united defence speech and in Martin Schulz’s latest, looking for a United States of Europe by 2025. * * * 5: Another UK political turnaround In a speech earlier this year at a regular spring conference, we boldly stated that having spent the 2014 edition of the conference discussing the Scottish referendum, the 2015 edition discussing the general election and the 2016 edition discussing the Brexit referendum, at least in 2017 there were no UK political events to discuss. Just over two weeks after this statement was made, Theresa May announced the 2017 general election. Once bitten and twice shy and all that. So even if the REAL grey swan for UK politics in 2018 would be if nothing interesting happened, that would not give us much to write about. The tail risk we consider, therefore, is if political instability gets so bad that either / or another general election or a second Brexit referendum occurs in 2018. While it is ex-post easy to see why Theresa May called the 2017 general election (a 20 point opinion poll lead is catnip to any politician), there is no such case now. Under the Fixed Term Parliament Act there are two ways to call an early election. The first, à la 2017, where the government chooses to dissolve parliament with a two-thirds majority in the Commons can be ruled out, we think. So if it did happen it would be because the government has lost a vote of no confidence (and not being able to win another one within two weeks). Ordinarily, this would be unlikely, but the government’s wafer-thin effective majority makes it a possibility and public attempts have been made before. In particular, we would highlight that all it needs is some Conservative (or DUP) lawmakers to get annoyed with the way Brexit is going that they are prepared to bring down the government and risk (from their perspective) a Jeremy Corbyn-led government. Because of how polarising Brexit has become in the UK, this is a risk that cannot be ruled out. The other potential political event is a second Brexit referendum. Again parliamentary mathematics is the key here. Around 75% of MPs (including a slim majority of Conservative ones) are pro Remain. So why are they pushing through Brexit legislation? They are enacting the will of the people as set out in the 2016 referendum. Of course, the will of the people can change. Over recent months we have seen a slim majority in the polls saying in hindsight it was wrong for Britain to vote to leave the EU. If this trend continues and that slim majority becomes a commanding one this may embolden Remain MPs on all sides of the house to push for a second referendum, perhaps on the outline of the actual deal the UK agrees with the EU. There is an issue of timing here – as things stand there is not a huge amount of time to fit in a referendum. This is why it would be a tail risk. The really interesting question is what sort of tail risk because there are two different options here. The question could ask whether to accept any deal or instead remain in the EU. Or it could ask whether to accept any deal or crash out of the EU altogether. The market implications of these two different questions would be very different! * * * 6: Bitcoin starts moving other markets Are you a coiner? It’s hard not to be at least interested with the sharp rise in cryptocurrencies. The level of speculative mania has reached a point where stock prices have been boosted by companies simply inserting “Blockchain” onto the end of their names (yes that happened). This phenomenon echoes the dot-com era, but that's all we will say about bubbles today. The arrival of Bitcoin futures will likely see Bitcoin exchange traded funds expand in 2018. Now that cryptocurrencies are entering the “mainstream” could Bitcoin’s high volatility start to move other markets? As it stands the market cap of Bitcoin is $280bn and that number rises to $523bn when all other 1358 cryptocurrencies are included (a number that seems to be ever rising too). Half a trillion dollars is no mean feat, but it is far away from the $79trn total world market cap or indeed the peak $2.9trn dot-com valuation in 2000. It may be too early for Bitcoin to have a global impact on other asset markets at this stage. Instead, we need to look where investors are most exposed on a regional basis for where this cross-market correlation could bite. With Japan accounting for nearly half of global trade in Bitcoin compared with just 25% in the US, it could be in Asia where Mrs. Watanabe pulls back. Beyond the price action there is the issue of longevity of cryptocurrencies to consider. We admit we didn’t ‘coin’ the phrase but “before you climb the ladder make sure it’s leaning against the right building” applies here. In the crypto world or “crypto valley” as it’s coined in Switzerland its well understood that Bitcoin is unlikely to be the future of coins. Proof-of-work (POW) cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are energy intensive and time consuming, while proof-of-stake (POS) coins such as the coming Ethereum-Casper are much less so. There are a host of reasons why we have not yet moved on from Bitcoin, POS is in its early stages with security still a concern and people, in general, are not that good with change. When they get used to something, it is very difficult for them to get out of that comfort zone and for most they have only just got their heads around Bitcoin. But for as long as POW is the most common form of cryptocurrency, this could start to have an economic and environmental cost. Bitcoin’s current estimated annual electricity consumption is 33.2TWh at an estimated cost of $1.6bn, while only 0.15% of the world’s current electricity consumption the rise in Bitcoin has been nothing but underestimated and is somewhat exponential in an age of exponential technologies. Estimates were made in March 2016 expecting Bitcoin’s energy consumption to match that of Denmark by 2020. Today Bitcoin already has matched that, three years ahead of schedule. So if it’s not risk-off inspired price action from Bitcoin that moves other markets how about higher energy costs? 71% of Bitcoin mining takes place in China powered by cheap coal electricity. So perhaps the grey swan of next year is not Bitcoin’s bubble bursting, as so many commentators tend to suggest, but instead it’s continued rise and a surging demand for coal. * * * 7: Housing market decline = rate cuts? Solid growth, low interest rates and hot money inflows from overseas have fuelled rapid house price gains in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden (Figure 8). As discussed in Residential speed limits, these growing imbalances cannot be ignored by policymakers. Investors have been calling for a downturn for some time in these markets. 2018 could be the year – indeed we are already seeing declines in Norway and Sweden. Residential investment has soared, driving increased supply which could outstrip housing demand and see prices move lower. Furthermore, to offset growing housing imbalances, regulators have tightened macroprudential policy through stricter lending standards and measures to deter foreign inflows. With limited historical precedent, there is a risk that policymakers have over-tightened and driven a slowdown. The consumption share of GDP in these economies is large. Falling house prices (and negative wealth effects) could see the consumer hold back on discretionary spending, particularly with real wage growth still low/subdued. Moreover, debt-to-income levels are at historical highs, meaning households are more sensitive to adverse changes in income, asset prices and interest rates than usual. A recent BIS study argued that in a high debt economy, “interest hikes could be more contractionary than cuts are expansionary”, making it difficult for policy makers to use monetary policy to curb these imbalances from building. A house price collapse would have significant market implications. Rates markets currently price these economies’ central banks normalising policy significantly over the next two years, with the Fed being the only central bank to outpace them (see Figure 9). If this grey swan materialises, expectations for normalisation would be significantly reduced. In fact, central banks may cut under this scenario. The RBNZ has already flagged weaker domestic demand as a downward scenario that could lead to rate cuts. The RBA, BoC, Norges Bank and Riksbank have all noted that the housing market is a key risk to their outlook. A significant house price decline could push them towards much more dovish monetary policy stances with further rate cuts still on the table. If this negative scenario unfolds, a substantial market repricing is likely. The timing for the first interest rate hikes in the Antipodeans and Scandies would be shifted back and even removed. Further hikes from the BoC would be priced out. Under extreme scenarios, rates markets may move to pricing cuts rather than hikes. Respective bond yields would move lower and currencies will depreciate versus the majors. * * * 8: A bigger proxy war in the Middle East In recent years the conflicts in the Middle East have tended to start with a bang, but then assumed a “low intensity” character. The underlying problem that gave way to the conflict in the first place is not resolved, but the conflict remains relatively contained without degenerating into a flare up of tensions that engulf the whole region. This is what happened in Yemen, Qatar and more recently in Lebanon. Our baseline is that this pattern will hold in 2018 too and these conflicts will remain “frozen”. However, 2018 may be different and the tensions may intensify in a manner to threaten regional stability. We see two theatres where the risks of imminent escalation are most significant (even though not part of the baseline): Yemen: Houthi rebels have already shown that they can fire missiles targeting Riyadh, although they failed to inflict significant damage. If such attacks continue and prove more costly for Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom may decide to increase its military involvement in Yemen, increasing the risk of a direct clash with Iran. Lebanon/Palestine: The immediate risk of a proxy war in Lebanon that emerged after the unexpected resignation of PM Hariri seems to have been defused. However, President Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel may increase this risk again as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestine’s Hamas have called for a renewed “intifada” in response to Trump’s decision. Against Hezbollah involvement in a possible intifada, Israel might decide to take the battle to the Lebanese territory, directly clashing with Iranian proxies/forces, with tacit support for Israel from some of the Sunni  countries. If these risks materialise, CDS spreads and the currencies of the countries involved may come under pressure. However, one other point to consider will be the impact on oil prices and global inflation. If tensions reach the point where markets become concerned about oil supplies, then there might have a notable increase in global energy prices. It is difficult to forecast where oil prices will settle in such a scenario, but we stress-tested our baseline forecasts with the Brent oil price at $80, an increase of around 30% from its current price level. With all the usual caveats that apply to such simulations, we find that an oil price shock of this magnitude would add 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points to 2018 headline inflation in the US and eurozone, respectively. Our colleagues in Japan see core inflation breaching 1.5% if the Brent oil price stays above $80/bbl, although they think it would be premature for the BOJ to modify its 10yr JGB yield target in response to such a shock. In EM, we recently looked at the winners and losers of an oil price shock. Outside the countries that are directly affected by regional tensions, Russia, Colombia, Malaysia and Brazil would be among the winners, while China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, South Africa and Turkey would be among the losers of a high oil price. The bottomline is with output gaps in major economies dwindling, an energy price shock may more easily lead to second-round effects on inflation, which may require a monetary policy response with knock-on effects on risk assets. * * * 9: “Get to the chopper!” Helicopter money is now disappearing from investors’ minds (Figure 11). However, we may finally observe helicopters dropping money in 2018. 2018 is expected to be a year of further monetary policy normalisation globally. Inflation has been disappointing globally, but markets now expect central banks to stress the economic recovery and financial stability (higher equity prices), not inflation. However, investors may be surprised by how strongly a few central banks can adhere to their inflation mandate. The BOJ is one of the most likely candidates. In the Abe cabinet, conditions for the BOJ have completely changed, and a further dovish shift cannot be ruled out in 2018, as Prime Minister Abe is now deciding on the next BOJ governor and two deputy governors. Although our central case is that Governor Kuroda will be re-appointed, an appointment of Mr. Honda, ex-economics advisor to PM Abe and currently ambassador to Switzerland, will be a significant shock to the market. The latest survey among FX investors shows that only 5% of them expect Mr. Honda to be the next governor, but the risk is higher to us (10-15%). Mr. Honda may be also appointed as one of the deputy governors to support Governor Kuroda, shifting the direction of monetary and fiscal policies to the more accommodative side. What can the BOJ do? We think clearer cooperation with government deficit financing is likely. The government and BOJ released a Joint Statement in January 2013, which can be re-written to loosen fiscal discipline further. In his interview with Reuters on 8 November, Mr. Honda said that the joint statement must be rewritten to have a joint goal of JPY600trn of nominal GDP. The BOJ’s policy target will thus be revised to make the policy mix more accommodative. Mr. Honda also said current fiscal policy management is tight, while he also said the BOJ may accelerate its JGB purchases to JPY100trn per year if an economic shock occurs. The government has already given up its target of achieving a primary balance surplus by FY2020, loosening its fiscal discipline. Further loosening of fiscal discipline is possible, and the appointment of Mr. Honda will be viewed as a clearer sign of further delays of the sales tax hike. If Mr. Honda is appointed, expectations for a much looser fiscal and monetary policy, i.e. helicopter money, may be ignited. This is not just a story of Japanese politics. A step towards helicopter money is actually recommended by ex-Fed Chair Bernanke. At the conference held by the BOJ in May 2017, he stated that “if more stimulus is needed, the most promising direction would be through fiscal and monetary cooperation, in which the BOJ agrees to temporarily raise its inflation target as needed to offset the effects of new fiscal spending or tax cuts on the debt-to-GDP ratio.” For central banks facing policy limitations, helicopter money can be a natural step towards further easing. We should remember another major central bank, the ECB, also faces limited policy options for resolving negative shocks * * * 10: Credit: stealth leverage pops? After years of accommodative policy, we think the risk is that leverage has built up in the system and as the Fed drains liquidity via the B/S and higher rates, the potential imbalance that may have been up could be exposed. So does US credit pop in 2018? Policymakers are always fighting the last war and in many ways, that has been a good thing because from a variety metrics, the US banking system is now more sound. Years of re-stocking the capital base, lower overall leverage (versus other periods) and less reliance on short-term funding no longer put banks in the cross-hairs. Granted if there was a severe enough recession or sharp repricing in financial assets, US banks would be affected. However, the stress tests suggest the majority would come out ok. Where is the leverage? It lurks in various forms; let’s call it stealth leverage Commercial Real Estate: During 2008-12, banks with high concentrations of CRE loans were about three times more likely to fail than all banks nationwide, according to Richmond Fed research. As specialized knowledge on local real estate markets is often key to CRE loan markets, community and regional banks are major credit providers. Risks associated with construction and land  development loans (CLD), the riskiest component of CRE loans (Figure 12), appear concentrated in small banks, which may not have the stuffiest buffers to absorb potential losses associated with CRE loans. In addition, CRE valuation remains at the highs when compared with residential real estate. Subprime Auto Loans: One area of consumer credit that has resurfaced on the radar is subprime, but this time in the auto loan sector. The recent peak in 2015 saw nearly 40% of all US auto loans go to subprime borrowers. There has been a slowdown since and  new origination versus total auto loans has decelerated (thus a lower flag). However, the total existing debt load of the past few years is about $0.4trn. During the oil fallout, defaults picked up quickly in shale-producing states. If the economy slows, the risk is that auto sector would get hit, but overall a pop here is not likely to be systemic. Student Loans: Another concern among those worried about the consumer is the high levels of student debt. Instead, it has led to more of a behavioural shift of less home buying. But as wages rise, these debts will not all pop at once. This too is less systemic. Financial Leverage: This is where the embedded leverage is in the system. Over the  past 10 years, the fastest-growing debt was in capital markets, as seen in corporate debt up roughly $3trn, as highlighted in our Fed QT Supply/Demand study (see link). Some of this was smart usage of debt, terming out to lock-in low costs of funding, but much of this went into stock buybacks and/or to highly leveraged corporates. In fact, the credit quality of the universe has moved towards BBB and higher duration (see link). A reprice of corporate credit when balance sheets are still thin could indicate that meaningful risk lies ahead. Deeper under the surface margin debt for stock purchases are also at all-time highs. Finally, some vol selling strategies in ETF form could be the pin prick to passive investing.

15 декабря 2017, 07:45

Australian Central Bank - Bitcoin Is Bad But You'd Love A Digital "e-AUD"

Sweden’s Riksbank, the world’s oldest central bank, is exploring the possibility of a digital register-based e-krona; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is researching whether its physical currency could be replaced by a digital alternative; the Bank of England is trialling blockchain-like systems; the Monetary Authority of Singapore is examining the use of distributed ledger technology for clearing and settlement of payments; and the PBoC said in October that it had completed tests on algorithms for a prototype of its own digital currency. Now the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has entered the fray with an all too familiar refrain. We’re paraphrasing…Bitcoin is bad, the realm of criminals and little more than a speculative mania, but the technology underlying Bitcoin has great potential, which we can exploit in time with our own “superior” digital currency. This is what Philip Lowe, the RBA’s Governor, actually said about Bitcoin at the Australian Payment Summit, which took place today at the Hyatt Sydney Regency in Sydney Harbour. When thought of purely as a payment instrument, (Bitcoin) seems more likely to be attractive to those who want to make transactions in the black or illegal economy, rather than everyday transactions. So the current fascination with these currencies feels more like a speculative mania than it has to do with their use as an efficient and convenient form of electronic payment. No surprise there, just more of the same from banking Mafiosi like Lowe, the ECB’s Constancio (“tulip”) and most notably, JPM’s Dimon. The Financial Times article outlining the RBA’s thinking sets out the case for blockchain/distributed ledger technology. Central banks, commercial banks and other financial institutions are exploring how to use private distributed ledgers to make financial transactions cheaper, more transparent, and less vulnerable to fraud. Banks and settlement systems currently use central electronic ledgers to track money transfers. But these systems can be slow, often rely on manual input and are open to hacking. Distributed ledger records transactions through a network of computers rather than a single central party…The attractions of the technology include the ability to make fast digital money transfers that do not carry the cost of handling cash, tracked securely by the network. But…there’s just one thing missing, which is where we “need” our central banking friends. However, a potential drawback of bitcoin-style systems is the lack of a central entity standing behind the liability, Mr Lowe said. Philip Lowe’s and his RBA colleagues are examining the potential for an eAUD, which would be issued alongside physical banknotes - although the FT article neglects to add the word “initially” (if you’ll excuse our cynicism). Australia’s central bank is exploring creating electronic banknotes using the technology underpinning bitcoin, as major central banks around the world race to bring cash into the digital age. Philip Lowe, governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, said in a speech on Wednesday that the bank was analysing the benefits and drawbacks of issuing an electronic form of the Australian dollar — the “eAUD” — alongside traditional banknotes. Speaking at the Australian Payment Summit, Mr Lowe said: “It is possible that the RBA might, in time, issue a new form of digital money…perhaps using distributed ledger technology.” He added that although the RBA has “no immediate plans” to issue digital dollars, the central bank is “continuing to look at the pros and cons”. The central bank also is exploring a new digital dollar settlement system based on the use of distributed ledger technology, or blockchain, the technology behind bitcoin. Digital dollars could take the form of a “token” that is issued and stored in consumers’ digital wallets, which can then be used for payments in a similar way to physical bank notes. Perhaps in a classic case of “problem, reaction, solution”, we’re speculating of course, the RBA will introduce an eAUD and phase out physical currency during the next financial crisis. In the case of Australia we may not have too long to wait as we discussed last month in “The Party’s Over For Australia’s $5.6 Trillion Housing Frenzy”. However, we noted the best analogy for the “Down Under” economy in “Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards” in which Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale argued that the three decades long expansion was mostly the result of “dumb-luck”. As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble. Browsing through the speaker biographies at the Australian Payment Summit, besides being RBA Governor, Philip Lowe is also (we can’t help but smile) a member of Australia’s Financial Stability Board and “spent two years at the Bank for International Settlements working on financial stability issues”. On a serious note, we know the direction which central banks want to lead us, as we argued a week ago with regard to the nomination of Marvin Goodfriend as Fed governor. It’s clear from reading between the lines that although central bankers are not engaging in a public discussion, the architects of the boom-bust cycles are considering their policy options for the next crisis…the one where their latest credit/asset bubble bursts in horrendous fashion. It’s also clear that the preferred solution is negative interest rates and either abolishing paper currency or taxing it in line with a depreciating digital currency standard. The RBA’s Philip Lowe is another minion seeking to control the narrative for the banking Mafiosi.

12 декабря 2017, 08:06

Доллар торгуется около двухнедельного максимума

Доллар держится около двухнедельных максимумах против корзины основных валют во вторник, так как инвесторы ожидают результатов встречи федеральной резервной системе США на этой неделе для новых катализаторов. Ожидается, что ФРС повысит процентные ставки на своем двухдневном совещании по вопросам политики, которое завершится в среду, и ожидается, что в следующем году она продолжит ужесточать политику. Большинство экономистов, опрошенных Reuters, теперь ожидают еще три повышения ставок в следующем году по сравнению с двумя, по результатам опроса всего несколько недель назад, хотя перспективы остаются омраченными упрямой подавленной инфляцией. Поскольку повышение курса на этой неделе было оценено, доллар может провисать сначала после объявления политики ФРС, сказал Стивен Дули, валютный стратег для Western Union Business Solutions в Мельбурне. Однако ФРС, вероятно, будет оптимистично настроен по поводу экономических перспектив и, вероятно, поможет подкрепить доллар, добавил он. Новозеландский доллар установил новый двухнедельный максимум, поскольку инвесторы приветствовали назначение начальника Национального пенсионного фонда Адриана Орра, бывшего сотрудника центрального банка, возглавить Резервный банк Новой Зеландии с марта 2018 года. Новозеландский доллар, который поднялся почти на 1,1% в понедельник, увеличил свой доход во вторник до самого высокого показателя с 28 ноября. Биткойн подешевел на 1,4% и составил около $16 247 на базе Люксембургской биржи Bitstamp, установив рекордный максимум в $17 270 на бирже в понедельник. Недавно запущенные фьючерсы на биткойны на биржах в Чикаго Cboe Global Markets предположили, что трейдеры ожидают, что рост цен на криптовалюту замедлится в ближайшие месяцы, даже когда он взорвался выше $17 000 долларов в понедельник до рекордного максимума. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

05 декабря 2017, 09:47

Заместитель главы РБНЗ, Грант Спенсер: Резервный банк Новой Зеландии становится более гибким в таргетинге по инфляции

Хронически низкая инфляция побудила руководство РБНЗ задуматься о том, нужно ли им менять денежно-кредитную политику и свой подход к ней Возможно, настало время, когда монетарная политика страны должна коррелировать по занятости и финансовой стабильности государства, а не на инфляцию Нужно ли при этом использовать процентные ставки? Если смотреть глобально, имеет смысл делать что-то, что сдерживало бы пузыри раздутых активов. Однако, это скорее проблема для высших эшелонов власти, а не для руководства ЦБ Тем не менее, мне очень хотелось бы увидеть будущее, где центральные банки контролируют инфляцию. При этом я не знаю периода в истории, когда банковские регуляторы затрачивали на это столько усилий, как последние десять лет РБНЗ следует проявлять осторожность в отношении вынесения каких-либо рекомендаций относительно изменения существующей системы Мы в ЦБ считаем, что слабая глобальная инфляция будет сохраняться, но она не угрожает экономическому росту Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

09 ноября 2017, 15:13

Global Markets Stumble, Spooked By Japanese Stock Fireworks

The overnight fireworks in Japan, which saw the Nikkei plunge by 860 intraday points and sent vol and volumes soaring (before recovering most losses), spooked traders in Asia and around the globe, and U.S. equity futures are red this morning, along with European shares and oil. As one early riser sellside desk notes, the Nikkei 225 provided the latest example of choppy markets and the 860 point intraday plunge "got us worried.  Is this a warning sign for risk assets?" President Trump's challenge of China for "unfair trading practices" (which he blamed on his predecessors) did not help the calm mood. “The stock market has run out of a little momentum since the blow-out on the (Japanese) topix so it feels like it’s temporarily paused,” said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. “We are waiting for some news from the Republicans on the tax plans, there is a bond market that has stalled and we’ve got rather soggy looking emerging markets... We probably need to get U.S. Treasury yields higher to get things going again.” In the aftermath of the Japanese vol spike, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index turned briefly negative having earlier climbed to all-time record. Most of Europe’s main bourses also drifted in and out of the red after Japan's disturbance spooked traders and after mixed earnings and as Brexit talks resumed with low expectations in Brussels. There were a series of ECB speeches and what should be buoyant new growth forecasts due later from the European Commission, though bond markets were mostly quiet following a rally this week in benchmark U.S. Treasuries and Bunds. In fact, German Bunds were sharply offered, with yields rising 9% on the day an approaching 0.36%: the move has dragged the rest of the European bonds lower, with OATs and Gilts also moving. According to some desks, this may be due to some rotation from the European equity markets, which are broadly trading into the red today and could be following in the footsteps of Nikkei. Already shaken by events in Japan, basic-resources shares weighed on the Stoxx Europe 600 index following a decline in industrial-metals prices. An increase in growth expectations from the European Commission failed to lift stocks as disappointing results from companies including Siemens AG and Vestas Wind Systems A/S added to the malaise. Banks gained, led by Italian lenders after BPER Banca S.p.A. earnings beat estimates. Stocks in Asia earlier rose above their 2007 peak before an intraday reversal in Japanese shares on technically-driven trading pared gains in the region. Sterling edged lower as Brexit talks resumed, while oil halted a two-day drop. Understandably, the yen was the dominant theme of the overnight session as investors rushed to buy the Japanese currency following the Nikkei plunge; the euro found support after the European Commission raised its growth outlook for the common area, while the pound reversed earlier gains as some hedge funds turned sellers; Investor attention has been focused on Asia this week, where Trump has embarked on an 11-day tour. In Beijing Thursday, he said China is taking advantage of American workers and companies with unfair trade practices, but he blamed his predecessors in the White House rather than China for allowing the massive U.S. trade deficit to grow. A year after Trump was elected to president, investors are also reflecting on how financial markets have fared in the interim, and a rally that has outperformed all but 4 "new president" markets in US history. As Bloomberg adds, elsewhere in the overnight session, the New Zealand dollar held onto Wednesday’s gains after the central bank flagged it may raise interest rates earlier than expected. The Kiwi was the day's big mover, surging about 1 percent to a two-week high of before dipping to trade at $0.6956. The kiwi soared after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said the country’s fiscal stimulus and the currency’s recent fall would lead to faster inflation and likely an earlier rise in interest rates. Treasury yields were range-bound as markets wait to see the U.S. tax proposal that will serve as the basis for further discussions. The kiwi was near two-week high after more hawkish RBNZ sends New Zealand’s 10-year yield eight basis points higher. Aussie dips briefly following surprise drop in housing finance activity and a subseqent short squeeze sent it to session highs; Australian sovereign bonds drift lower with 10-year yield up three basis points at 2.60%. JGB futures dip after mediocre 30-year auction tails 1.1bps. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was 0.1 percent lower at 94.803 meanwhile, as it drifted further from the three-month high of 95.150 set in late October. A U.S. Senate tax-cut bill, differing from one already in the House of Representatives, was expected to be unveiled on Thursday, complicating a Republican tax overhaul push and increasing scepticism on Wall Street about the effort. Some also focused on fallout from Democrat wins in regional U.S. elections this week as signal for next year’s mid-term Congressional elections for U.S. President Donald Trump. “There’s very much a risk of disappointment. The U.S. dollar could go through a weakening phase on the back of uncertainty around that tax reform,” said Steven Dooley, currency strategist for Western Union Business Solutions in Melbourne. Meanwhile, stalled Brexit talks resume on Thursday in Brussels with no indication that a breakthrough is in reach. In commodity markets, Brent and U.S. crude oil futures were modestly lower, having hit two-year highs earlier in the week following a 40% surge since July. U.S. data showing a rise in domestic crude production had weighed on sentiment overnight but the Middle East uncertainty in Saudi Arabia limited the losses. Gold added 0.2 percent to $1,283.45 an ounce after rising to a three-week high of $1,287.13 an ounce the previous day. Palladium hovered near a 16-year high of $1,019 while nickel fell by more than 2 percent in London to its weakest since October as hype over potential electric vehicle demand that has been driving it higher eased. The nickel market had been ignoring downside risks from policy developments in supply markets Indonesia and the Philippines, and instead focusing on potential future demand from electric vehicle batteries, said Morgan Stanley in a report. “We (have) heard little to alter our view that producing NiSO (nickel sulphate) isn’t particularly challenging/costly and we see near-term downside risk to price,” it said. On today's calendar, the ECB said economic growth in the U.K. is headed for a prolonged slowdown even as the euro-area economy is forecast to expand at the fastest pace in a decade this year. And in the U.S., tax reform discussions continue. The Senate is due to release a “conceptual mark” of a proposal Thursday, according to a spokeswoman. Expected economic data include jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Dish, Disney, Johnson Controls and TransCanada are among companies reporting earnings. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European markets remain subdued, as equities trade mixed with a lack of any real direction GBP weaker amid a late follow-through of concerning Brexit commentary Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobs, ECB’s Lautenschlaeger and Constancio Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,588.30 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 393.82 MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 171.99 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.3% to 561.79 Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,868.71 Topix down 0.3% to 1,813.11 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 29,136.57 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,427.80 Sensex up 0.06% to 33,239.47 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 6,049.43 Kospi down 0.07% to 2,550.57 German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.328% Euro up 0.05% to $1.1601 Italian 10Y yield rose 4.5 bps to 1.482% Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 1.515% Brent futures down 0.1% to $63.41/bbl Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,283.82 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 94.81 Top Overnight News President Trump said China is taking advantage of American workers and American companies with unfair trade practices, but blamed his predecessors in the White House for allowing the U.S. trade deficit to grow The European Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, and U.K. Brexit Secretary David Davis resume talks on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU. Timing and duration in Brussels to be determined ECB’s head of banking supervision, Daniele Nouy, signaled that she’s willing to compromise on controversial plans to toughen rules on bad loans after criticism from the European Parliament that sent Italian bank shares soaring EU is giving U.K. an informal deadline of two to three weeks to set out how much it is prepared to pay in the Brexit divorce settlement, the Financial Times reports, citing an unidentified senior EU negotiator Hearing on Powell for Fed Chair set for Nov. 28 Saudi Billionaires Said to Move Funds to Escape Asset Freeze AT&T CEO Says He Won’t Sell CNN as Antitrust Tension Rises Boeing Wins China Orders for 300 Planes Worth $37 Billion London House-Price Slump Persists as Brokers See Sales Tumble Vestas Plunges Most in 6 Years on Tougher Wind Competition BOE’s McCafferty Says Banks May Leave Before Brexit Deal Agreed Risk on sentiment had been in full swing in Asia as stocks continued to edge higher at the beginning of the session, before later paring initial advances, particularly in Japanese assets. Nikkei 225 had been the notable outperformer although reversed gains of 2% as US equity futures dipped, subsequently sparking safe haven flow in the JPY, while some investors also touted profit taking. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 hovered around 10yr highs with iron ore prices seeing another day of gains, consequently supporting miners. Chinese markets traded in mixed fashion with the Hang Seng keeping afloat after encouraging Chinese CPI and PPI data which tops analyst estimates, while the Shanghai Comp fluctuated between gains and losses. 10yr JGBs are a tad lower, while underperformance has been observed in the belly of the curve with the 10yr yield ticking up 0.1bps. Top Asia News Noble Group Posts $3 Billion Year-to-Date Loss as Crisis Deepens Inside Noble-Vitol Deal Shows Colonial Pipeline as Top Asset Malaysia Says It May Consider Review of Monetary Accommodation Malaysian Bonds Face Specter of First Rate Hike Since 2014 Philippines Holds Benchmark Rate as Inflation Seen on Target Bakrieland Says Singapore Court Approves Debt Restructuring Plan European equities trade with little in the way of any notable price action after a directionless lead from Asia after initial gains were erased. On a sector specific basis, performance has largely been off the back of individual earnings from across the continent with notable movers including Vestas Wind Systems (-16.9%), Burberry (-10.5%), Sainsbury’s (-2.9%), Siemens (-2.6%) and Commerzbank (+2.6%). Upside in Commerzbank shares has subsequently lead to some outperformance in financial names with Italian banks also providing some support amid UniCredit’s latest trading update and a sector bounceback from yesterday’s losses. No sign of any investor angst or dampened demand whatsoever, as 2023 supply was snapped up with only a 1 tick price tail. This, despite a sharp retreat in yields following the BoE rate hike and not much in the way of concession going in to the DMO  tap. Note also, the issue does not fall into the more normal 5 year bucket until next year and the average auction yield was just a shade below yesterday’s closing level. However, 10 year benchmark Liffe futures have retreated from best levels to marginal new lows for the session (125.45), albeit largely alongside a general downturn in fixed (Bunds just off a new Eurex base of 163.23). In truth, debt markets are lacking clear direction and consolidating recent gains/yield declines/curve flattening. Top European News Denmark’s Negative Rates Are Seen Persisting Into Next Decade ECB’s Nouy Bends on Bad-Loan Plan as Italian Bank Shares Soar U.K. Likely to See More Utility Mergers If SSE Deal Approved Euro-Area Growth Forecast Lifted Again as U.K. Outlook Dims In FX, a broadly softer Greenback, largely due to ongoing US tax reform uncertainty, and supportive RBNZ impulses has enabled the Kiwi to recoup more lost ground after the RBNZ stood pat on rates at 1.75%. Accordingly, it brought forward rate hike projections to June 2019 from Q3 previously, while Governor Spencer also contended that the NZD is now fair value (although his deputy McDermott thinks a bit more depreciation is desirable). EUR is back to pivoting around the 1.1600 level vs the Dollar where large (1.7 bn) option expiries reside. USD/JPY has seen very choppy trade in line with the Nikkei, but ultimately firmer on safe-haven grounds, as USD/JJPY retreats from 114.00 again towards November lows. Currently around 113.50, bids are seen at 113.40 and then 113.00, while offers are said to be layered from 114.00-20. Riksbank meeting minutes see several members emphasising the importance of the exchange rate for the economic outlook and inflation prospects. In commodities, iron ore prices continued to surge higher overnight with Dalian iron ore rising as much as 2% amid the persistent rise in steel prices. Precious metals gained a slight bid following the turnaround in risk sentiment, where Japan equities reversed its 2% rise to trade with losses of 1.5%. WTI and Brent crude futures trade relatively sideways with little in the way of notable newsflow other than Goldman Sachs sticking to their USD 58bbl year-end call for Brent whilst noting the ‘potential for high spot price volatility in the coming weeks’. Looking at today's calendar, data wise, September Germany trade data along with UK industrial production are due. Elsewhere, US initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories are also due. We’ll also receive the latest EC economic forecasts while the ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau, Coerue, Mersch, Lautenschlaeger and Constancio are due to speak. Brexit talks are due to resume between Barnier and Davis while President Trump holds meetings with China’s Xi and Li Keqiang. US event calendar 7:45am: Bloomberg Nov. United States Economic Survey 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 231,500, prior 229,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.88m 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.7 10am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.9%, prior 1.7%;  Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Needless to say that the focus for markets today will be on what details emerge from the Senate’s version of the GOP tax bill. It’s unclear just how much detail we’ll get though with some conflicting reports out there. Axios reported that the release of the bill will be delayed however Politico reported separately that GOP leaders are ready to walk through the bill with the GOP conference at 11.30 EST. Thereafter it will be released to the public but the timing is a bit up in the air so we might have to wait and see. Overnight, a spokeswoman for the Senate Finance Committee, Ms Lawless, noted that today’s tax proposal will be a “conceptual mark” rather than the legislative details. Over in markets, the one year Trump anniversary was one of the less exciting days that we’ve had so far. Initially the tone felt a bit more risk-off with European markets generally closing a bit softer. US markets did however pare early losses into the close at least with the S&P 500 ending +0.14%. That masked another difficult day for banks however, partly influenced by the Washington Post article that did the rounds suggesting that the Senate GOP tax  bill could delay the cut in the corporate tax rate by one year. Later in the day, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also refused to rule out a possible phase-in of corporate tax cuts. Meanwhile victory for the Democrats in the two Governor races in New Jersey and especially Virginia also appeared to play a factor given the midterm elections next year. It remains to be seen whether that will transpire into taking back votes across the rest of the country but nevertheless it was a statement of intent. Meanwhile EM tensions continue to bubble under the surface with headlines never too far from the front pages. EM sovereign debt has certainty had a tough time of it in the last week or so but we’re also starting to see some signs of selling pressure in DM HY credit with Crossover and CDX HY 11bps and 7bps wider this week, respectively. All the talk in bond markets at the moment though is the flattening across the Treasury curve. Yesterday saw both the 2s10s and 5s30s curves flatten for the 9th and 10th successive day respectively. The former dropped to 68bps and has now flattened by 16bps during that run. The latter was only modestly flatter at 78bps but is still also 12bps flatter over the same time. So as we know the Treasury curve is the flattest it’s been in 10 years and there is plenty of ongoing debate as to what is driving the recent price action. Various reasons have been suggested. Our US rates strategists have  previously noted that even with a tax plan, overseas investors and pension buying of the long-end is depressing term premium and yields. Another suggestion is that with 2y yields somewhat anchored relative to the Fed’s effective rate and therefore further rate hikes, the long-end is instead being weighed down by long-end Euro rates. Unsurprisingly there is plenty of discussion about how the recent moves are indicating late cycle tendencies. One thing we would note though is that the NY Fed recession model is only showing a 9% probability of a recession in the next 12 months. While that’s up from 3% at the end of last year the overall level is still clearly fairly low based on their model but it’s worth keeping an eye on. Also worth monitoring perhaps is the whether the flattening has had much impact on bank lending when we receive the next Fed Senior Loan Survey. In the last 3 days, US  banks have dropped -3.53%, so the sector has certainly materially underperformed. This morning in Asia, China’s October CPI was slightly above consensus at +1.9% yoy (vs. +1.8% expected) and also up from +1.6% the month prior, while PPI was steady but well above expectations at +6.9% yoy (vs. +6.6% expected). Markets are trading higher in Asia, with the Nikkei powering ahead (+0.58%) to a fresh 25 year high following sound corporate results, while the Hang Seng (+0.52%) and ASX 200 (+0.55%) are also up, but the Kospi is down 0.33%. Last night Bloomberg ran an article suggesting that the White House plans to announce $250bn of business deals with China this week based on comments from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. As we go to print President Trump and China President Xi Jingping are about to hold a joint briefing. This comes after Trump called the trade relationship between the two “very one sided” and the deficit “shockingly high”. Xi said that China is to become more open to foreign investment and that the nation is “unswervingly committed” to opening up. Moving on. In the UK, PM May’s cabinet has now lost two ministers within one week after the International Development Secretary Priti Patel offered her resignation, shortly after she admitted to holding a series of unauthorised meetings with Israeli officials without the PM’s knowledge and suggested giving British aid money to an Israeli army project. In view of the increased instability around PM May’s government, some suggested this may have knock on impacts on the progress of Brexit talks. Nonetheless, the Irish PM Varadkar has signalled that Brexit talks could have a breakthrough by December, noting that “I’m more optimistic than I was in the weeks before the October Summit”. The current round of Brexit talks will resume today in Brussels. Following on, BoE policy maker McCafferty has warned that clarity on Brexit will be needed by early next year to better allow businesses to forward plan. He noted businesses “cannot wait until the last minute”, adding that “there’s a point…even when it becomes clear what the final deal will be – whether it’s no deal or some sort of deal – the banks will have to act”. Elsewhere, the BoE’s banking regulator Mr Woods had earlier noted that it was “plausible” the UK could lose up to 75,000 jobs in the banking and insurance sector if it left the EU bloc without a trade deal. Staying in the UK, according to a network of UK businesses monitored by the BoE, the latest agents’ summary suggest wage growth in 2018 should improve further, now likely to be 2.5%-3.5% yoy growth (up 0.5% from prior  readings), in part due to a slow-down in the availability of workers, which in some ways is not too surprising given UK’s unemployment is at a 42 year low. However, while the survey noted modest growth in spending is expected to continue for the coming year, expectations in the following two years were “weaker”. Across the pond, the Fed’s Harker noted he has “not at this point” seen anything that would push him away from a rate hike in December, which is in line with the consensus view with the odds of rate hike unchanged at 92% (per Bloomberg). Looking ahead, he has “pencilled in three (rate) increases in 2018” but noted that this is somewhat evolving as he “will reassess that as the data comes in”. On potential tax cuts, he noted “we need more specificity as to what those programs would entail”, and that “we have not put any fiscal stimulus” in our forecasts at this stage. Before we look at the day ahead, a quick recap of the minimal economic data from yesterday. In the US, the weekly MBA mortgage applications was flat (vs. -2.6% previous). Over in Europe, Spain’s September industrial production was above expectations at +0.1% mom (vs. -0.2% expected), leading to annual growth of +3.4% yoy (vs. +3.1% expected). In France, the September trade deficit was broadly in line at -$4.67bln, although there was a $0.3bn positive revision to the prior month’s reading. Elsewhere, the current account balance was lower than expected at -$3.1bn (vs. -$1.5bn expected). This morning in New Zealand, the central bank has the left cash rate on hold at 1.75% and noted that “monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly”. Elsewhere, inflation is now expected to trough at 1.5% yoy in 1Q18 but rebound to 2.1% yoy in 2Q. Looking at the day ahead, data wise, September Germany trade data along with UK industrial production are due. Elsewhere, US initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories are also due. We’ll also receive the latest EC economic forecasts while the ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau, Coerue, Mersch, Lautenschlaeger and Constancio are due to speak. Brexit talks are due to resume between Barnier and Davis while President Trump holds meetings with China’s Xi and Li Keqiang.

09 ноября 2017, 08:23

Ситуация на фондовых площадках Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона:

Фондовые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона в основном растут, так как скромная прибыль на Уолл-стрит и сильные корпоративные сезонные прибыли региональных компаний повышают настроения инвесторов. Также инвесторы наблюдают за визитом Президента Дональда Трампа в Китай. Новозеландский доллар вырос после того, как Резервный банк Новой Зеландии оставил процентную ставку без изменений и намекнул, что может повысить ставки раньше, чем ожидалось. Австралийский рынок растет вслед за прибылью на Уолл-стрит и более высоких цен на сырьевые товары. Также на динамику торгов повлияли данные по инфляции в Китае, которые оказались выше прогноза. Акции BHP Billiton и Rio Tinto подорожали почти 1% каждый, а Fortescue Metals - на 0,3% после скачка цен на железную руду. Среди нефтяных запасов, бумаги Woodside Petroleum выросли в цене на 0,3%, а Oil Search - на 0,4%, несмотря на то, что цены на сырую нефть упали с двухлетних максимумов. Японский рынок растет на сильных данных по доходам внутренних компаний. Инвесторы проигнорировали более слабые, чем ожидалось, данных по заказам на продукцию машиностроения. Основные экспортеры торгуются в основном выше на фоне более слабой иены. Акции Panasonic выросли в цене почти на 1%, Mitsubishi Electric - на 0,5 процента, Canon - почти на 4%, а Sony - на 0,5%. NIKKEI 23150.30 +236.48 +1.03% SHANGHAI 3416.32 +0.86 +0.03% HSI 29170.22 +262.62 +0.91% ASX 200 6046.00 +29.74 +0.49% KOSPI 2551.04 -1.36 -0.05% NZ50 8021.09 -19.33 -0.24% Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam

09 ноября 2017, 07:46

Австралийский и новозеландский доллары растут

Новозеландский доллар продолжил рост против доллара США после того, как Резервный банк Новой Зеландии, как и ожидалось, оставил свою официальную процентную ставку не прежнем уровне в 1,75%, несмотря на снижение безработицы в Новой Зеландии до самого низкого уровня с момента окончания мирового финансового кризиса и ускорение темпов инфляции. Новозеландский доллар вырос на решении РБНЗ, поскольку центральный банк перенес сроки планируемого повышения ставки с 3-го квартала 2019 года на 2-й квартал 2019 года. В РБНЗ также заявили, что продолжат проводить мягкую денежно-кредитную политику. Ослабление новозеландского доллара, по мнению регулятора, будет способствовать ускорению инфляции в Новой Зеландии. Годовая инфляция в стране в сентябре ускорилась до 1,9%, приблизившись к целевому уровню РБНЗ, хотя базовая инфляция была несколько медленнее. В РБНЗ ждут, что инфляция в среднесрочной перспективе останется вблизи середины целевого диапазона 1%-3%. "Денежно-кредитная политика будет оставаться мягкой еще в течение длительного времени. Неопределенность по-прежнему окружает перспективы политики", - сказал Грант Спенсер, исполняющий обязанности управляющего РБНЗ. Австралийский доллар снизился после публикации данных по числу ипотечных кредитов выданных в Австралии, которые резко снизились в сентябре после роста в августе. Однако вскоре австралийская валюта вернула утраченные позиции и выросла выше максимума вчерашней торговой сессии, чему способствовали данные по инфляции в Китае. Отчет по ипотечным кредитам, публикуемый Австралийским бюро статистики, показал, что число ипотечных кредитов в сентябре снизилось на -2,3% после роста на 1,0% в августе. Отметим, что экономисты ожидали рост показателя на 3,0%. В свою очередь индекс потребительских цен, публикуемый Национальным бюро статистики Китая, в октябре в годовом исчислении вырос на 1,9% после роста на 1,6% в сентябре. Экономисты ожидали рост показателя на 1,8%. На ежемесячной основе инфляция выросла в октябре на 0,1% после роста на 0,5% месяцем ранее. Бюро также сообщило, что цены производителей выросли на 6,9% - без изменений по сравнению с предыдущим месяцем, но выше прогнозов экономистов 6,6%. В течение первых девяти месяцев этого года экономика Китая продемонстрировала более высокий, чем ожидалось, прирост почти на 6,9%, в основном на фоне восстановления в производственном и промышленном секторах благодаря сильным расходам на государственную инфраструктуру, устойчивому рынку недвижимости и неожиданной силе в экспорте. Но активность в сфере недвижимости и строительства, две из основных движущих сил роста экономики, начинают замедляться под тяжестью правительственных мер, принятых чтобы охлаждать цены жилье и более высокие затраты по займам. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

08 ноября 2017, 10:15

Прогноз предстоящего заседания Резервного банка Новой Зеландии 9 ноября

Уже сегодня в 20:00 по времени GMT или завтра по местному времени Резервный банк Новой Зеландии огласит свое решение по процентным ставкам. Большинство экономистов уверены, что ЦБ не станет менять процентную ставку и сохранит ее на уровне 1.75%. Дело в том, что в последнее время стоимость молочной продукции, составляющей основной экспорт Новой Зеландии, снизилась на последнем аукционе GDT на 3.5%. Более того, это уже третье снижение цены на молочку и наиболее масштабное с января 2017. Также за последний месяц просели розничные продажи, настроения потребителей и предпринимателей и активность на рынке жилья Новой Зеландии. В связи с этим у Резервного банка Новой Зеландии уже есть серьезная причина для того, чтоб сохранять мягкую денежную политику несмотря на относительно позитивные данные на рынке занятости и рост потребительских цен в 3-м кв. «Вероятность того, что РБНЗ изменит ставку наличных денег в этом заявлении по денежно-кредитной политике близка к нулю. Но большой интерес будут вызывать комментарии и прогнозы Банка, особенно вокруг его процентной ставки. В то же время, почти наверняка РБНЗ пересмотрит свой курс инфляции. Мы также полагаем, что политика нового правительства выводит негативное давление на инфляцию , которую РБНЗ также будет обсуждать на этой неделе» - высказали свое мнение в банке National Bank of Australia. Таким образом, подавляющее большинство экономистов ожидает, что вероятность изменения ставки со стороны Резервного банка Новой Зеландии близка к нулю. ЦБ вероятно поддержит нейтральный тон в своем сопроводительном заявлении. Скорее всего денежно-кредитная политика ЦБ будет оставаться мягкой на протяжении еще значительного периода времени. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

08 ноября 2017, 06:01

Обзор предстоящего заседания РБНЗ от NBA

Сегодня 8 ноября в 20.00 GMT Резервный банк Новой Зеландии объявит свое решение по процентной ставке и опубликует сопроводительное заявление о денежно-кредитной политике Предварительній обзор от National Bank of Australia: Вероятность того, что РБНЗ изменит ставку наличных денег в этом заявлении по денежно-кредитной политике близка к нулю. Но большой интерес будут вызывать комментарии и прогнозы Банка, особенно вокруг его процентной ставки . Резервный банк должен будет учитывать ряд инфляционных «позитивных» событий с момента его августовского заседания, включая более высокую, чем ожидалось, начальную точку инфляции ИПЦ, намного более слабый курс NZD, более сильный, чем прогнозируется, рынок труда и перспективы более высоких минимальных заработных плат и улучшение глобального экономического фона. Мы также полагаем, что политика нового правительства выводит негативное давление на инфляцию , которую РБНЗ также будет обсуждать на этой неделе. С другой стороны, деловая уверенность упала, и рынок жилья выглядит мягче, чем прогнозировал Банк. В то же время, почти наверняка РБНЗ пересмотрит свой курс инфляции . То, что менее очевидно, будет тем, что он будет делать с отслеживанием процентных ставок (который в августе MPS был плоским до конца 2019 года до того, как он достиг более высокого уровня), поскольку это будет зависеть от мнения Банка относительно стабильности вышеуказанного чистого инфляционного давления. Учитывая все обстоятельства, мы полагаем, что очень мало шансов, что Банк будет более доходчивым, чем в августе, и он может быть заметно более ястребиным. Что касается пресс-конференции, то , несомненно, будет много вопросов о том, какие потенциальные изменения в Законе о РБНЗ или Соглашении о целевых показателях политики могут иметь значение для денежно-кредитной политики. Но мы не ожидаем, что Банк даст какие-либо окончательные ответы, отчасти потому, что для этого потребуется некоторое время, чтобы это стало ясным для самого Банка. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

07 ноября 2017, 14:44

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Royal Caribbean, Macy's, Exxon Mobil, Intel and Mastercard

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Royal Caribbean, Macy's, Exxon Mobil, Intel and Mastercard

07 ноября 2017, 10:55

Обзор рынка акций на неделю с 6 по 10 ноября 2017 года

Андрей Кочетков, аналитик «Открытие Брокер»Немного итогов предыдущей недели. За прошедшую неделю индекс ММВБ подрос с 2068,76 п. до 2081,15 п., а РТС снизился с 1118,62 п. до 1109,38 п. Пара USD/RUB подросла за неделю с 58,06 до 59,08, а EUR/RUB с 67,41 до 68,60. Нефть Brent подорожала за неделю с $60,44 до $62,07. Американский индекс широкого рынка S&P 500 повысился с 2581,07 п. до 2587,84 п.Пока российский рынок отдыхал, на мировых площадках преимущественно преобладал оптимизм. Впрочем, азиатские рынки завершили день без существенных изменений или с небольшими потерями. Stoox 600 закончил торговый день в небольшом плюсе. Сводный индекс деловой активности в еврозоне подрос до 56 при ожиданиях 55,9. Индекс цен производителей показал рост до 2,9% при ожиданиях 2,8% и предыдущем значении в августе 2,5%. Таким образом, европейская валюта получила небольшую поддержку и осталась вблизи значения $1,161. Американские торги проходили под аккомпанемент разговоров по поводу слияний и поглощений. Предстоящая неделя уже не будет столь нагружена важной статистикой. Во вторник стоит обратить внимание на статистику по оплате труда в Японии, так как во многом она показывает возможные будущие тенденции с инфляцией в этой стране. Далее Резервный Банк Австралии примет решение по ставке, но прогнозы говорят о сохранении её на уровне 1,5%. Германия опубликует статистику по промышленному производству. Далее в еврозоне опубликуют данные по розничным продажам. Ожидается выступление президента ЕЦБ Марио Драги, а также встреча министров финансов. Из событий за океаном стоит отметить выступление председателя Банка Канады Полоза и председателя ФРС Джаннет Йеллен. В России выйдет статистика по инфляции за октябрь. Ожидается её замедление до 2,8%. «Мегафон» закроет реестр на участие в ВОСА. «Юнипро» отчитается по МСФО за 9 месяцев.Ночью в среду Американский институт нефти опубликует отчёт по запасам нефти и нефтепродуктов в США. Кстати, стоит уточнить, что в США на минувших выходных перевели часы, поэтому теперь американская статистика сдвинется на один час по сравнению с московским временем. В этот день Япония также опубликует индекс опережающих экономических индикаторов. Однако наиболее интересными новостями из Азии будут данные по китайской внешней торговле. Из вечерних событий стоит отметить отчёт Минэнерго США по запасам и потреблению нефти и нефтепродуктов. Поздно вечером Резервный Банк Новой Зеландии примет решение по ставке, но изменений не ожидается. В России пройдёт совет директоров «Газпрома». Сбербанк отчитается по РСБУ за 10 месяцев.В четверг Япония публикует данные по машиностроительным заказам. Китай поделится статистикой по инфляции. Ожидается, что она ускорилась до 1,8% в октябре по сравнению с 1,6% в сентябре. Между тем, цены производителей снизились до 6,6% по сравнению с 6,9% в сентябре. На европейском отрезке торгов стоит обратить внимание на здоровье германской внешней торговли, а затем на доклад и прогнозы ЕЦБ. Американский календарь в этот день предусматривает публикацию традиционной статистики по первичным обращениям за пособием по безработице. Поздно вечером выступит глава Национального банка Швейцарии. И, к слову, в течение дня также будет повышенная речевая активность представителей ЕЦБ. В России «Газпром нефть» проведёт совет директоров, «ЛУКОЙЛ» закроет реестр на участие в ВОСА. VimpelCom отчитается по МСФО за III квартал.Пятничные торги будут проходить на фоне второстепенной статистики из европейских стран. Из важного можно отметить объёмы строительства и промышленное производство в Великобритании. Банк Англии совсем недавно повысил ставку и многие на рынке будут ждать реакции экономики на подобные действия. Из американских событий стоит отметить индекс потребительской уверенности от Университета Мичигана, отчёт Baker Hughes по активным буровым и отчёт Минфина США по исполнению бюджета. Из российских событий стоит обратить внимание на торговый баланс.Американские торги проходили преимущественно в плюсе на разговорах о слиянии Broadcom и QUALCOMM (+1,15%). Впрочем, на рынке считают, что предложение Broadcom по покупке Qualcomm оказалось недостаточным и несерьёзным. Другое событие из той же сферы, но уже с негативным окрасом, касалось сотовой компании Sprint (-11,54%), которая не будет сливаться с T-Mobile USA Inc. (-5,72%). Intel (+1,37%) и AMD (+7,28%) объявили об альянсе против Nvidia (+0,45%) в сфере портативных компьютеров. Впрочем, американские индексы продолжают капитализироваться на ожиданиях налоговой реформы. На текущей неделе свой вариант предложит Сенат, а затем палата представителей и Сенат начнут согласовывать свои позиции. По итогам торгов все три основных индекса завершили день с рекордами, что случилось уже 26-ой раз в текущем году – DJIA укрепился на 0,04% до 23548,42 п, а S&P 500 вырос на 0,13% до 2591,13 п., NASDAQ подрос на 0,33% до 6786,44 п.Настроения на азиатских площадках также были позитивными. Nikkei 225 обновил свои максимумы за 25 лет. Этому способствовала иена, которая ослабла до 113,96 за доллар, но в большей степени всё же стоит говорить об отсутствии существенных рисков снижения. Визит Д. Трампа в Японию продолжает демонстрировать американскую поддержку Токио, хотя и связан с настойчивыми просьбами расширить военные закупки. Австралийский S&P/ASX 200 продолжает наращивать свой рост. За октябрь индекс подрос на 4%, за первую неделю ноября – на 1,5%, а также во вторник прибавлял почти 0,7% за счёт благоприятной ситуации на сырьевом рынке. Стоит отметить, что энергетический сектор был одним из главных двигателей повышения азиатских индексов. Из статистики дня стоит отметить, что рост средней заработной платы в Японии составил в октябре 0,9% в годовом выражении при ожиданиях 0,6%. Резервный банк Австралии сохранил ключевую ставку без изменения на уровне 1,5%. К 8:40 (мск) Shanghai Composite – 3400,66 п. (+0,37%), Nikkei 225 – 22924,90 п. (+1,67%).Нефть в последние торговые сессии получала множество поводов для роста. Во-первых, три месяца подряд в США снижается число активных нефтяных буровых установок. На прошлой неделе количество снизилось на 8 единиц до 729 штук. Во-вторых, в Саудовской Аравии происходят аресты десятков представителей правящей династии и чиновников по обвинениям в коррупции. Международные обозреватели считают это признаками усиления власти коронованного принца Мухаммада Бин Салмана. Впрочем, это усиливает позиции сторонников продления соглашения об ограничении добычи. Фактически уже сейчас на рынке наблюдается некоторый дефицит поставок, что позволяет снижать мировые коммерческие запасы. Если же соглашение будет продлено до конца2018 года, то этот процесс лишь усилится. И, наконец, нельзя отметить тот факт, что столь серьёзные внутриполитические события в Саудовской Аравии повышают вероятность роста нестабильности в данной стране и противодействия части элиты нынешнему руководству. Однако после двух дней резкого повышения на рынке может состояться небольшая коррекция. И немного о золоте. Относительная стабильность котировок объясняется относительной стабильностью в настроениях долгосрочных инвесторов. Резервы SPDR Gold Trust сократились за неделю с 850,77 тонн до 845,46 тонн. К 9:00 (мск) Brent – $64,2 (-0,11%), WTI – $57,31 (-0,07%), золото – $1279,4 (-0,17%), медь – $6942,38 (-0,27%), никель – $12785 (-1,04%), палладий – $995,9 (+0,08%).Фьючерс на индекс доллара подрастал в пределах 0,1% до 94,68. К 9:00 (мск) EUR/USD – $1,16 (-0,04%), GBP/USD – $1,316 (-0,04%), USD/JPY – 113,99 (+0,27%).Российский рынок пытался расти, но неблагоприятный внешний фон сдерживал покупательский порыв. Более того, на валютном рынке наблюдалась явная потеря интереса к российскому рублю. После снижения ключевой ставки ЦБ и возможного повышения ставки ФРС до конца года условия для Carry Trade ухудшились. Кроме того, Минфин существенно увеличил плановые объёмы закупки валюты до 122,8 млрд рублей в ближайший месяц с 8 по 6 декабря. Поэтому рубль весьма неохотно следовал за нефтью, хотя без её поддержки ослабление российской валюты могло быть и более сильным. В ближайшее время рубль будет находиться под взаимным влиянием указанных факторов. Нефть удержит его от чрезмерной слабости, а вывод «горячих» денег будет оказывать давление. Разумным будет ожидать то, что на рынке акций спросом будут пользоваться бумаги нефтегазового сектора, а также, если рубль ещё ослабнет, акции металлургов. Впрочем, последние были существенно перегреты. Стоит также обратить внимание на отчётность Сбербанка, который должен постоянно подтверждать высокие темпы роста прибыли, чтобы оправдать завышенные котировки своих акций.

06 ноября 2017, 18:50

Not Rewarding Surprises Like It Used To: Global Week Ahead

To date, the market has been rewarding upside earnings surprises less than average and is punishing downside earnings surprises more than average.

03 ноября 2017, 16:50

EU Shadow Rate Madness

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, The other day I stumbled upon this great tweet from Holger Zschaepitz, the senior editor of the financial desk of the German newspaper, Die Welt. I have often said the last thing any equity bull should hope for is a strong economy, especially one accompanied with an uptick in inflation. A near perfect nirvana environment would be one with low inflation and, decent, but not exploding growth. And low and behold, this is exactly what Europe is experiencing. Inflation is stumbling just enough for the ECB to err on slowing the pace of their tapering, but meanwhile, the economy is ticking slightly above expectations. What’s the result of this combination? Quantitative easing for slightly longer. Nothing like the Central Bank goosing financial markets higher with more blue tickets. If the economy and inflation were both running a percentage point higher, what do you think would be the ECB’s response? They would be tapering (and maybe even tightening) at a much quicker pace. So ironically, a slightly below target economy could well be the absolute best environment for stocks. When Holger describes the current EU economic numbers as Goldilocks, I must admit, I concur completely. Shadow rates Over the past decade, as more and more countries have adopted ZIRP (zero interest rate policy), with some even pushing down to NIRP (negative interest rate policy), economists have struggled with a way to measure the degree of accommodation that their unconventional policies were exerting on the economy. First introduced by Fisher Black in 1995, the concept of a shadow rate gained widespread adoption in days following the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. There are various models, with the Wu-Xia model gaining prominence in the United States. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has created models for a wider swath of countries, and these series are rising in popularity. Although the math for these shadow rates is complicated, the important thing to realize is that if rates are positive, shadow rates are essentially the same as the actual rate. But when rates hit zero (or below), the shadow rate measures the theoretical negative rate. Even though US rates never went below zero in the last cycle, the shadow rate was deep into negative territory at the height of Bernanke’s quantitative easing madness. If we combine inflation to these short-term shadow rates, we get a crude sense of the real rate. This is the amount that monetary policy is set above or below inflation. Let’s have a look at these variables for the European economy over the past couple of decades. From 1997 to 2008, the real rate drifted around between 2% and -0.50%. But then look what happened after 2008. Real rates broke down and fell deeply into negative territory. If you look closely at the white line, the shadow rate, you will notice that it wasn’t until 2011 that it broke zero. But then over the next half dozen years, the shadow rate went from 0% all the way down to minus 8%! Think about that for a second. According to this model, the actual short-term rate is minus 8%! I know I am repeating myself, but it bears repeating. That’s nuts. At the time, inflation was basically zero, so the real rate was also minus 8%. Nutball Mario, right? Well, not so fast. Here is the same graph for the United States. Look closely at the period around 2011. Although the shadow rate only declined to minus 5%, inflation was running positive. Therefore in the depths of the quantitative easing, the real rate bottomed at minus 8%! Coincidence? What has happened to the US stock market since that crazy monetary extreme? It’s rocketed higher. I know there are differences between the US and Europe, and there is much more than just monetary policy to factor into an investment decision, but sometimes it’s just this easy. Monetary policy acts with a long lag. In the years following Bernanke’s stimulus, investors were skeptical of the American stock market rally, but it kept going, and going, and going. My guess is that the same will happen with Europe today. They are just a few years behind the Americans. Just like Japan The current situation in Europe reminds me a lot of Japan from a couple of months ago. I remember the Nikkei breaking out, and even though it was a clean chart pattern, tons of investors had all sorts of reasons why Japanese stocks wouldn’t rise. The rally was quiet, and filled with skepticism. Well, I suspect there is a good chance the same thing will happen in Europe. So don’t bother sending me all the reasons why Europe can’t rally, it will only make me think it looks all the more like Japan. And for those of a more bearish persuasion, I think long European / short US stocks makes tons of sense in here. You have one Central Bank that refuses to ease up on the accelerator, while the other is looking to raise rates more quickly than the market has priced in. If for no other reason than that, it’s worth having a gander at the trade.

02 ноября 2017, 17:08

New Zealand Interest Rate

The benchmark interest rate in New Zealand was last recorded at 1.75 percent. Interest Rate in New Zealand averaged 7.53 percent from 1985 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 67.32 percent in March of 1985 and a record low of 1.75 percent in November of 2016. In New Zealand, interest rates decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The official interest rate is the Official Cash Rate (OCR). The OCR was introduced in March 1999 and is reviewed eight times a year by the Bank. The OCR influences the price of borrowing money in New Zealand and provides the Reserve Bank with a means of influencing the level of economic activity and inflation. This page provides - New Zealand Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

31 октября 2017, 07:31

Австралийский доллар снизился на данных из Китая

Австралийский доллар упал после того, как данные показали, что в октябре индекс активности производственного сектора китайской экономики вырос в более медленном темпе. Доллар Новой Зеландии также снизился после двух редких дней роста. В октябре индекс официальных менеджеров по закупкам в Китае упал до 51,6, с 52,4 пункта в сентябре, тогда как индекс сектора услуг снизился до 54,3 с 55,4 в сентябре. Рост промышленного производства в Китае снизился более чем ожидалось в октябре в условиях ослабления рынка недвижимости и ужесточения правил загрязнения, которые заставляют многие сталелитейные заводы, металлургические заводы и фабрики сокращать производство в течение зимы. Китай является крупнейшим торговым партнером Австралии, занимая большую часть своей добычи железной руды, в то время как сектор услуг составляет более половины экономики Китая и имеет важное значение для Пекина, поскольку он уравновешивает рост от инвестиций и экспорта. В последние недели австралийский доллар упал более чем на 4,5% в основном за счет возрождающегося доллара. Австралиец готовится к третьему прямому месяцу потерь в октябре, но некоторые аналитики менее пессимистичны. "Мы считаем, что AUD, скорее всего, достигнет своего значения", - сказали аналитики ANZ в примечании к клиентам. "Некоторая консолидация в долларах США, наряду с сильным глобальным ростом и избыточной макро-ликвидностью, должна продолжать повышать настроения и обеспечивать подъем AUD". Резервный банк Австралии (RBA), как полагают, будет удерживать ставки на рекордных минимумах еще много месяцев, в то время как Федеральный резерв США находится на четком пути ужесточения. Новозеландский доллар находится на пути к худшему месячному показателю с января 2016 года. Иностранные инвесторы обеспокоены тем, что новое легальное правительство Лейбористской партии страны займет жесткую позицию в отношении иммиграции и иностранных инвестиций и пересмотрит правила, регулирующие Резервный банк Новой Зеландии. Местный бизнес также казался неуверенным в настроениях, показал опрос ANZ Bank. Индекс уверенности в деловых кругах от ANZ в октябре снизился на -10.1% Иена отреагировала незначительным снижением на решение Банка Японии сохранить денежно-кредитную политика без изменений. На совещании по денежно-кредитной политике, состоявшемся сегодня, Правление Банка Японии приняло решение большинством голосов 8 против 1 Сохранить отрицательную процентную ставку -0,1% к остаткам процентных ставок на текущих счетах, проводимых финансовыми учреждениями в Банке. Также Банк будет покупать японские государственные облигации (JGB), чтобы их доходность в течение 10 лет оставалась на уровне около нуля. Прогнозы реального ВВП Банка Японии повысился на 2017/18 финансовый год на +1,9% против +1,8%, прогнозируемого в июле. На 2018/19 и 2019/20 финансовые годы сохранили без изменений 1,4% и 0,7% соответственно. Прогнозы по инфляции снизился также как ожидалось. Базовый ИПЦ на 2017 / 18 финансовый год увеличится на +0,8% против +1,1% прогнозированного в июле. Ожидания по инфляции на 2018 / 19 финансовый год - +1,4% против +1,5%, прогнозируемого в июле, на 2019 / 20 - остается на уровне 1,8%. Также сегодня стало известно, объемы промышленного производства в Японии в сентябре в годовом исчислении упали на -1,1% после роста на 2,0% в августе, хотя экономисты ожидали снижение показателя на -1,5%. В месячном исчислении промпроизводство в Японии выросло на 2,5%, что выше прогноза роста на 2,0%, но ниже предыдущего значения 5,3%. Промышленное производство упало на в сентябре из-за падения выпуска микросхем памяти, оборудования для производства плоских дисплеев и тяжелой техники, используемой в строительстве. Падение было самым большим за четыре месяца. "Объемы промпроизводства снизилась из-за временной слабости в экономике Китая, но глобальный спрос остается солидным, поэтому объем производства будет расти в будущем", - сказал Дай Аоки, региональный главный инвестиционный директор UBS Securities в Японии. - Спрос на рабочую силу оставался самым сильным за последние 43 года. Безработица в сентябре осталась на уровне 2,8%. В сентябре в месячном эквиваленте соотношение числа открытых вакансий и числа кандидатов на них соответствует 1,52, как и в августе В сентябре расходы на домашнее хозяйство неожиданно упали, что вызвало некоторую озабоченность по поводу отсутствия влияния на рынок рабочей силы на потребительские расходы. Расходы домохозяйств, публикуемые Министерством внутренних дел и коммуникаций Японии, снизились в сентябре в годовом исчислении на -0,3% после роста на 0,6% в августе. Экономисты ожидали рост показателя на 0,7%. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

26 сентября 2017, 09:16

Прогноз по предстоящему на этой неделе заседанию РБНЗ

На этой неделе, 27 сентября в 20:00 GMT, состоится очередное заседание Резервного банка Новой Зеландии, посвященное монетарной политике регулятора. Примечательно, что эта встреча пройдет уже под управлением нового руководителя Центрального банка. Грэм Уилер уже не будет главой РБНЗ, его срок истек, и его место займет Грант Спенсер. После выборов в минувшие выходные переговоры между правительством, Центральным банком и парламентом ведутся без перерывов. Еще до конца не понятен исход выборов, т.к. окончательные результаты будут представлены только 7 октября, а 380 тыс голосов все еще не подсчитаны и они могут полностью изменить текущие промежуточные результаты. На данный момент официальная учетная ставка ЦБ составляет 1.75%, и никаких изменений от этого заседания аналитики не ждут. Большинство экспертов уверено, что пока политические вопросы в стране не урегулируются руководство РБНЗ не станет брать на себя ответственность и менять текущую монетарную политику. Таким образом, большинство экономистов ожидает, что Резервный банк Новой Зеландии оставит ставку на уровне 1,75% и поддержит нейтральный тон в своем сопроводительном заявлении. Скорее всего денежно-кредитная политика ЦБ будет оставаться мягкой на протяжении еще значительного периода времени. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

02 июля 2017, 08:45

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Don’t Expect the RBA to Join the Hawkish Central Banks

A weaker U.S. Dollar was primarily behind the surge by the Australian and New Zealand Dollars last week. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand made no comments about future rate hikes last week, their respective currencies posted strong rallies because investors felt that rising global interest rates would push … Continue reading AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Don’t Expect the RBA to Join the Hawkish Central Banks

24 июня 2017, 09:00

Банковские вклады будут конфисковывать

В марте 2013 года на острове Кипр произошли события, о которых сегодня знает весь мир. Суть их – конфискация части банковских депозитов кипрских банков. Иногда пытались представить эту конфискацию как чрезвычайную меру, исключение из правил банковского дела и рыночной экономики. Однако многое говорит о том, что такие конфискации скоро станут нормой жизни. Конфискация депозитов как […]

23 июня 2017, 22:46

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Holds Rates: ETFs in Focus

RBNZ held its Official Cash Rate steady at 1.75%.

23 июня 2017, 06:01

Форекс: Мнение СВА по паре AUD/NZD

С начала сегодняшних торгов пара AUD/NZD немного выросла, после того как вчера снизилась до четырехмесячного минимума NZ$1,0372 На фоне укрепления новозеландской валюты и некоторого ослабления австралийского доллара. В четверг Резервный банк Новой Зеландии оставил процентную ставку без изменений на уровне 1,75% и выпустил оптимистичный прогноз по экономике страны. По мнению аналитиков СВА пара AUD/NZD подвержена понижательным рискам на фоне укрепления новозеландского доллара. "Рост мировой экономики ускорился и стал более обширным, тогда как экономика Новой Зеландии оказалась более открытой для мировых рынков по сравнению с австралийской", - говорят в банке. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam