Москва. Датский инвестиционный банк Saxo Bank прогнозирует стоимость североморской нефти марки Brent в 2018 году на уровне 60 долларов за баррель, WTI - 57 долларов. Об этом говорится в обзоре главного стратега по товарно-сырьевым рынкам банка Оле ...
Cryptocurrency prices are tumbling once again overnight with Ripple getting smashed... Bitcoin is back below $12,000 and Ethereum testing down towards $1000... There are no clear catalysts but @IamJosephYoung notes that the South Korean government previously announced that under-aged investors and foreigners will be prohibited from trading cryptocurrency. Korbit is the first one to comply with that policy. Bithumb and Coinone yet to comment on it. Date expected to be February 1, not confirmed yet. Kookmin Bank and some other banks will not provide support for exchanges. But, Shinhan Bank will. Soon, they'll regret giving the entire market to their competitor. And perhaps the pre-emptive impact of that speculative capital leaving the market is triggering these drops. Additionally, headlines in the SCMP suggest further pressures from China... The People’s Bank of China has ordered financial institutions to stop providing banking or funding to any activity related to cryptocurrencies, further tightening the noose since its shutdown of crypto exchanges last September sent digital currency enthusiasts fleeing overseas. “Every bank and branch must carry out self-inspection and rectification, starting from today,” according to a document issued by the central bank on Wednesday. “Service for cryptocurrency trading is strictly prohibited. Effective measures should be adopted to prevent payment channels from being used for cryptocurrency settlement.” The Chinese-language document, as seen by the South China Morning Post, was distributed as an internal document among banks, and not published on the central bank’s official website. However, Government crackdowns, often meant to protect against excessive speculation, also end up dousing the fire of technological innovation, said Kay Van-Petersen, an analyst at Saxo Bank. Decentralised systems like capital cannot be killed because “it will flow to where it is appreciated globally,” he said. “So you can choose to be part of that technological innovation or on the other side of the table.” “Most of the trading is taking place via US dollar now, as some big accounts active in digital currency trading are already on China’s official watch list and payment channel already blocked,” said Zhao Dong, an individual bitcoin investor who spends most of his time in Japan now. “This move by the PBOC is further pushing capital and innovation out of China.” However, as Bonner & Partner's Bill Bonner notes, there's one simple reason why this latest crypto crash is temporary... 3.5 million… That’s the estimate for how many “ghost accounts” were created by banking giant Wells Fargo. That’s about 1% of the total U.S. population. It’s also roughly the population of the state of Connecticut. You’ve likely heard the story already, so I won’t go into all the details. But here’s the gist… Wells Fargo created millions of fake accounts for its customers… to charge them fees for services that they never requested. It was later discovered that Wells Fargo was signing customers up for unwanted insurance policies as well – again, to charge customers for services that they never requested. This was outright fraud. It’s for reasons like this that a new type of technology has burst onto the scene. It enables secure, reliable, and transparent transactions… without the potential for manipulation by big financial institutions. As an investor, this technology needs to be on your radar. Here’s why… You Can’t Trust the “Trusted” Intermediaries Recently, I wrote to you to give you an “inside look” at the world of cryptocurrencies. I told you that the crypto market would experience some pullbacks and high volatility. We’re seeing that today. Bitcoin, the world’s first cryptocurrency, dropped about 30% this week. But despite these pullbacks, I’ve also told you that these new crypto assets still have a long way to run in the years ahead. And the reason why can be summed up in one word: blockchain. You’ve likely heard the term “blockchain” associated with the popular cryptocurrency bitcoin. You may even know it as the decentralized ledger technology underpinning cryptocurrencies. But that’s only part of the story… Blockchain technology is also known as distributed ledger technology. We can think of a distributed ledger in its simplest form as a distributed database – distributed in the sense that there are complete copies of this database (or ledger) scattered around the world. Historically, companies, governments, and individuals all keep their records in one centralized database. Imagine a room with racks of computers that store information. But centralized databases can be manipulated… Records can be changed, hard drives can fail, data can be lost, and the records represent only one party’s view of any given transaction. In the world of blockchains and distributed ledger technology, the exact opposite is true. The transactions recorded on the ledger represent a transaction that takes place between the parties involved and is confirmed by the blockchain network via a consensus. Once a transaction is written to the ledger, it is immutable. It cannot be changed. The image below gives you an idea of the difference between these two network types. The value and utility that a well-designed blockchain provides is remarkable. Immutability, secure transactions, privacy, transparency, the reduction or elimination of fraud… That last part is key. That’s because in a centralized system, we depend on “trusted” intermediaries (banks and other financial institutions) to conduct transactions. But as we’ve learned time and time again, these “trusted” intermediaries are not at all trustworthy. It wasn’t long ago when the LIBOR scandal uncovered that many of the most “trusted” financial institutions in the world were manipulating interest rates for their own benefit, and of course at the expense of others. Banks like Barclays, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase, UBS, Citigroup, Bank of America, and the Royal Bank of Scotland were found to be right in the middle of these manipulations. And we’ve already discussed Wells Fargo… The corruption is seemingly endless. The New Internet By design, blockchain technology removes the potential for manipulation to take place. You can think of this as a “new” internet. Today’s internet is how we send pictures, stream videos and music, and send emails. But blockchain networks are different. They are all about transferring value. The internet of value will allow you to send money, fulfill smart contracts, confirm your identity without sending sensitive information, and so much more. The way that value is transferred is typically through a blockchain’s own cryptocurrency. Each blockchain usually has a controlled, finite supply of it by design. For example, in the case of the bitcoin blockchain, bitcoin is its cryptocurrency… its means of transferring value and incentivizing network participants. And the bitcoin supply is finite – only 21 million will ever be produced. Think about that… a blockchain has its own monetary policy written into its software. It’s Not Too Late That’s why I’m so excited about this technology. It has the potential to rewrite our entire society the way the internet did more than 20 years ago. And the assets associated with this technology – cryptocurrency and digital tokens – will continue to soar in value. You may think that the cryptocurrency boom has already peaked. You may think you’re too late. But consider this… I recently came back from a blockchain conference in New York. One of the most remarkable comments made was that the “big money” (hedge funds and large money managers) isn’t really in the cryptocurrency market yet. The total cryptocurrency market sits at around $500 billion. But the institutional funds need the market to hit $1 trillion before they can start investing heavily. And when that happens… most likely sometime this year… the crypto market will really take off. And the institutional money will first put their dollars to work in the cryptocurrencies that have the largest market capitalizations. That means investors should be looking closely at bitcoin, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and Bitcoin Cash, to start. There will certainly be some pullbacks and high volatility along the way, like we’re seeing today. But I’m here to tell you… now’s the time to get in.
Согласно прогнозам аналитиков Saxo Bank, в 2018 году Bitcoin продемонстрирует хороший рост — до 100 000 долларов. Укрепление будет вызвано повышенным интересом к нему институциональных инвесторов.
Биткоин может достичь уровня $100 000 в 2018 году, сообщил в интервью CNBC аналитик, который правильно предсказал ралли криптовалюты в начале 2017 года. Кай Ван-Петерсен, аналитик Saxo Bank, добавил, что другие конкурирующие цифровые монеты также могут сильно вырасти в цене. Ван-Петерсен прогнозировал в декабре 2016 года, что биткоин достигнет $2000 в 2017 году. В то время биткоин торговался ниже $900, согласно CoinDesk, веб-сайту, который отслеживает цену цифровых валют на разных биржах. Биткоин преодолел отметку $2000 в мае. Ван-Петерсен заявил, что биткоин может торговаться в диапазоне $50 000 - $100 000 в 2018 году. "Во-первых, вы можете утверждать, что у нас была правильная коррекция в биткоине, у него был 50-процентный откат в какой-то момент, что здорово. Но до сих пор не видели полного эффекта фьючерсных контрактов", - сказал Ван-Петерсен. В прошлом году CME и Cboe запустили фьючерсную торговлю биткоином. Этот шаг рассматривался как способ привлечь больше институциональных инвесторов на криптовалютный рынок, и узаконить его. Но торговая активность оказалась ниже ожиданий. Ван-Петерсен сказал, что с течением времени на рынок выйдет больше учреждений, но это произойдет не быстро. Согласно CoinDesk, для достижения отметки $100 000 биткоину нужно будет вырасти на 635% от своей самой высокой цены во вторник на уровне $13 601. Ранее Ван-Петерсен отмечал, что для достижения уровня $100 000 может потребоваться десять лет. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
Вместе с экспертами АиФ.ru выделил основные риски, угрожающие стабильности курса рубля.
Kay Van-Petersen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said in December 2016 that bitcoin would reach $2,000 in 2017, a feat achieved in May.
Спрос в сегменте сырьевых товаров, стимулируемом энергетической отраслью, продолжается на протяжении первых торговых недель 2018 года. Отрасль выигрывает из-за повышенного внимания к инфляции при том, что текущий цикл расширения переходит в позднюю ...
Может ли Вашингтон помирить Варшаву и Берлин и что скажет Вена?. Швейцарская газета Le Temps, анализируя уходящий 2017 год, делает прогноз на год 2018: «польский кризис» может сдвинуть центр Европейского союза на восток. Схожего мнения придерживаются аналитики Saxo Bank...
Азиатские акции в пятницу возобновили подъем на фоне оптимизма в отношении прибыли корпораций в США и роста цен на нефть. Евро укрепился после публикации протоколов декабрьского заседания Европейского центробанка (ЕЦБ), пишет Reuters.
Азиатские акции в пятницу возобновили подъем на фоне оптимизма в отношении прибыли корпораций в США и роста цен на нефть. Евро укрепился после публикации протоколов декабрьского заседания Европейского центробанка (ЕЦБ), пишет Reuters.
Валютные кризисы и новички фондового рынка, китайские экономические причуды и мода на женское в деловом дресс-коде. Чего ждать в 2018 году и надо ли бояться? «Мир накопил энергию для ошеломляющего и полного потрясений 2018 года». Так считает Saxo Bank. 15 лет подряд датский инвестиционный ...
Какие экономические «страшилки», по мнению финансистов из датского Saxo Bank, могут произойти в мире в следующем году, рассказывает АиФ.ru.
Компании и страны ищут способ, как можно использовать блокчейн не только на финансовых рынках.
One day after the Fed hiked rates by 25 bps as part of Janet Yellen's final news conference, it is central bank bonanza day, with rate decisions coming from the rest of the world's most important central banks, including the ECB, BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, HKMA, Turkey and others. And while US equity futures are once again in record territory, stocks in Europe dropped amid a weaker dollar as investors awaited the outcome of the last ECB meeting of the year: the Stoxx 600 falls 0.4% as market shows signs of caution before the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are due to make monetary policy decisions as technology, industrial goods and chemicals among biggest sector decliners, while miners outperform, heading for a 5th consecutive day of gains. “The Federal Reserve raised interest rates last night, but they weren’t overly hawkish in their outlook. This has led to traders being subdued this morning,” CMC Markets analyst David Madden writes in note. The stronger euro pressured exporters on Thursday although overnight the dollar halted a decline sparked by the Fed's unchanged outlook for rate increases in 2018, suggesting "Yellen Isn't Buying Trump's Tax Cut Talk of an Economic Miracle." That said, it has been a very busy European session due to large amount of economic data and central bank meetings, with the NOK spiking higher after the Norges Bank lifted its rate path, while the EURCHF jumped to session highs after SNB comments on CHF depreciation over last few months. The AUD holds strong overnight performance after a monster jobs report which will almost certainly be confirmed to be a statistical error in the coming weeks, while the Turkish Lira plummets as the central bank delivers less tightening than expected. Meanwhile, the USD attempts a slow grind away from post-FOMC lows. In tates, bunds sell off from the open, with the 2s5s10s butterfly again highlights pressure in 5y sector, strong European PMI prints and possible bearish ECB set-up drive the move. USTs lower in tandem, steepening noted in Eurodollar curve. Divergence seen in equity markets as U.S. equity futures are supported from overnight levels whereas European indices sell-off across the board, move higher in EUR/USD after fed decision weighs on some exporters. Some of the most notable developments via BBG: China: PBOC raises rates on reverse repo and MLF operations by 5bps; Reuters later reports SLF rate is also raised by 5bps Norges Bank: holds rates at 0.5% as expected; rate path changed to imply first hike in autumn 2018 from summer 2019 U.K Nov. Retail Sales m/m: 1.1% vs 0.4% est; ONS says seasonal adjustments capture only an element of the Black Friday effect, with retailers now offering discounts over a two-week period rather than a single day SNB holds rates at -0.75% as expected with 3M Target LIBOR Rate at -0.75% vs. Exp. -0.75%. SNB says swiss franc overvaluation has thus continued to decrease, yet the franc remains highly valued. HKMA increased its base rate by 25bps to 1.75% in response to the Fed hike. (Newswires) Turkey holds benchmark rates at 8.00% as expected; late liquidity rate hiked by 50bps vs 100bps est. Adding to the optimistic mood were PMIs across the major European economies, with German and French composite PMI indexes smashing estimates. The December flash aggregate euro-zone PMI rose to an almost seven-year high of 58 vs 57.2 median forecast and 57.5 in Nov. In the ongoing Brexit daram, on Wednesday the UK government was defeated in parliament in a 309-305 vote, meaning MP's will get a meaningful vote on the final Brexit deal. PM May now heads to Brussels to the European Summit, where she is expected to stall for time to find unity on the exact trade deal Britain wants from Brussels. Looking at stocks, a slide in technology stocks led the decline in Europe's Stoxx 600 Index, with most industry sectors in the red. U.S. equity-index futures inched higher. In Asia earlier, China’s domestic equity markets were lower and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell, while Japanese and South Korean equities were also down. Core European bond yields ticked higher and the euro pared a drop after manufacturing data from Germany and France underscored the resilience of the region’s economy. Sterling was steady before the Bank of England’s policy decision. Brent crude held above $60 a barrel. As a reminder, the ECB and BOE’s rate meeting are also set for today. Firstly on the ECB, the likely focus will be for more clues about plans to start weaning investors off its monthly bond purchases next year as well as on the latest staff macroeconomic forecasts, with the first outlook for 2020 due to be revealed. DB expects the core inflation 2020 forecast to be 1.6%/1/7% - consistent with previous 3-year ahead staff views. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Draghi’s press conference and particularly if he addresses some of the internal divisions which have been hinted at on forward guidance. “The ECB is the next big point of focus in the process of moving from quantitative easing to tapering,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark said via email. “That could have an impact on currencies, bond yields and stocks.” The BoE meeting could be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature. Meanwhile, as reported yesterday, the Fed stuck with a projection for three rate hikes in the coming year after raising its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point. While the U.S. central bank lifted its estimate for growth in 2018 to 2.5 percent from 2.1 percent, it still didn’t see inflation accelerating. Also reported overnight was that in response to the Fed's rate hike, the People’s Bank of China unveiled a five basis-point boost to some reverse-repurchase rates, minutes before the country’s release of its main economic data for November. While most economists had anticipated the PBOC to hold off on any move in the wake of the Fed, as they did when the U.S. lifted borrowing costs in June, we disagreed, and we were right when the PBOC instead moved in tandem, as it did March. The yuan was slightly higher against the dollar in Thursday trading, though it advanced less than the won and other Asian currencies. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Central Bank Christmas party: Norges Bank brings forward rate hike exp., SNB unchanged with focus now on ECB and BoE UK Retail Sales boosted by Black Friday with readings above analyst estimates. Looking ahead, rate decisions from ECB and BoE. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,673.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 389.92 MSCI Asia up 0.1% to 171.01 MSCi Asia Ex Japan up 0.2% to 556.56 Nikkei down 0.3% to 22,694.45 Topix down 0.2% to 1,808.14 Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 29,166.38 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,292.44 Sensex up 0.4% to 33,168.14 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 6,011.26 Kospi down 0.5% to 2,469.48 German 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.33% Euro up 0.01% to $1.1827 Italian 10Y yield rose 8.9 bps to 1.532% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 1.517% Brent futures up 0.2% to $62.58/bbl Gold spot down 0.03% to $1,255.14 U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 93.43 Top Overnight News China’s central bank unexpectedly raised borrowing costs following the Fed’s decision to tighten monetary policy Yellen Isn’t Buying Trump’s Tax Cut Talk of an Economic Miracle Shell Is Said to Sell Argentine Fuel Assets to Brazil’s Raizen China Tightens After Fed as Policy Makers Seek to Soothe Markets UBS Wealth Chief Zeltner Replaced by Blessing in Revamp Fox’s Workaround for Troubled Sky Takeover? Get Disney to Buy It YPF Is Said to Be Near to Selling Unit Stake to GE, Blackstone Atos Pushes On With $5.1 Billion Gemalto Bid After Rebuff Traders Brace for ‘Explosive’ Rand Moves After ANC Election Asia equity markets were mostly subdued as the regional bourses and central banks reacted to a hike from the Fed in Yellen’s last meeting. ASX 200 (-0.2%) was indecisive and pared the early mining-led gains, while Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) was hampered by USD/JPY woes post-FOMC. Hang Seng (-0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) traded subdued as participants mulled over Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales figures which either printed inline or below estimates. Furthermore, the HKMA and PBoC responded to the FOMC with the base rate in Hong Kong raised by 25bps in lockstep with the Fed, while the PBoC increased rates by 5bps on 1-year MLF loans and on its Reverse Repo operations. Finally, 10yr JGBs were rangebound despite the subdued risk tone in Japan, while the 20yr auction also failed to spur demand with most metrics inline with the previous month. After three days of injections, the PBoC drained a net 190BN yuan in liquidity via reverse repos, while it also announced to lend CNY 288bln through MLF 1yr loans. PBoC raised rates on reverse repos and its MLF by 5bps each following the Fed rate hike with 7-day reverse repo at yield of 2.50% (Prev. 2.45%), 28-day at 2.80% (Prev. 2.75%) and 1yr MLF loan at 3.25% (Prev. 3.20%). Source reports also stated that SLF loan will be raised 3.35% (Prev. 3.30%) In other data, Chinese Industrial Output (Nov) Y/Y 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.2% (Prev. 6.2%); YTD 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.7%), Chinese Retail Sales (Nov) Y/Y 10.2% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 10.0%); Y/Y 10.3% vs. Exp. 10.3% (Prev. 10.3%). The Australian dollar soared after the Australian Employment Change printed at 61.6k for November vs. Exp. 19.0k (Prev. 3.7k, Rev. 7.8K), while the New Zealand Treasury lowered GDP forecasts for 2017/18 to 3.3% from 3.5% and cuts 2018/19 forecast to 3.4% from 3.5%. Top Asian News China Factory Output, Investment Slow While Consumption Firms China Shares Drop as PBOC Raises Borrowing Costs After Fed Hike Teva Braces for Nationwide Strikes by Israeli Union on Job Cuts Japan Plans Carrot-and-Stick Tax Changes to Drive Wage Gains MUFG Brokerage Sued by Manager as Harassment Dispute Escalates Philippines Holds Rate With Economists Predicting Hike in 2018 Russia Dreams Big as U.S. Fails to Kill $27 Billion Gas Project European equities have seen little in the way of firm direction in what is set to be a busy day for markets ahead of tier 1 data and a slew of central bank activity; most notably the ECB rate decision and press conference for European traders. Focus for the event will centre around the ongoing debate at the Bank on whether to impose an end date on asset purchases with the release also due to be accompanied by the latest staff economic projections. In terms of sector specifics, utilities have posted some modest outperformance with E.ON (+2.4%) top of the DAX leaderboard amid a positive broker upgrade at Exane. Other individual movers include Peugeot (+1.5%) amid a broker upgrade at HSBC and encouraging Eurozone car registration figures. Top European News Euro-Area Activity Surges as Manufacturing Posts Record Growth Housing Slump Gathers Pace in Sweden After Buyers Lose Faith Draghi’s 2020 Vision for Euro-Area Economy Is Key to QE Exit Norway Signals an Earlier Exit From Extreme Monetary Stimulus World Record in Negative Rates Transforms a Whole Generation May Heads Back to Brussels After Brexit Defeat by Her Own Party In fixed income, the initial Fed/US Treasury inspired bid always looked tentative and the cautious buying has proved prudent in wake of some strong EU fundamentals ahead of the BoE and ECB policy announcements etc. Bunds and Gilts were already on the turn in truth, but have recoiled further to lows of 162.98 and 124.77 respectively following flash PMIs that lived up to their name in the main, and a significant UK retail sales beat vs consensus, albeit in large part due to Black Friday. So, the 10 year debt futures have been 29 and 15 ticks adrift vs +10 and +13 ticks at one stage and Gilts saw a 2k lot clip sale at 124.90 on the way down. Technically, Bunds will now be wary of Wednesday’s 162.91 Eurex base, and if that yields then bears will target 162.79-74. Meanwhile, USTs have declined in sympathy to unwind more of their post-FOMC gains and the curve continues to re-steepen as the 2 year yield derives more comfort (relief) from no hawkish change to the 2018 tightening profile. In FX, it's been a busy morning for markets with European participants arriving at their desks to a softer USD post-FOMC with Yellen failing to deliver any hawkish surprises while the rate path trajectory was kept broadly the same despite fiscal stimulus being incorporated into forecasts. First up in terms of major European central bank decisions was the SNB which prompted a little traction in the CHF after the Bank stood pat on rates and reiterated that the CHF remains ‘highly valued’. Thereafter, the Norges Bank dealt NOK a big helping hand after keeping rates unchanged this time round, but bringing forward expectations for a hike to autumn 2018 from summer 2019; subsequently knocking EUR/NOK firmly back below 9.80. GBP remains a key focus for markets with initial modest strength following PM May’s Parliamentary failure yesterday which will give Parliament a ‘meaningful’ vote on the terms of the UK’s departure from the EU. Thereafter, UK retail sales painted a more upbeat picture for the economy with all readings exceeding expectations and some upward revisions to the previous’. However, limited reaction seen in GBP amid seasonal factors and ongoing Brexit focus. In commodities, gold prices have retreated from their post-FOMC gains during European trade, while Chinese primary aluminium production showed declines for the 5th consecutive month with domestic crude steel output slipping to a 9-month low amid curbing efforts. WTI crude futures were lacklustre and failed to make any meaningful recovery from the prior day’s losses which were partly triggered by the DOE report which showed increased US production and a large build in gasoline inventories. IEA Monthly Report: Our forecast for global demand growth remains unchanged at 1.5 mb/d in 2017 (or 1.6%) and 1.3 mb/d in 2018 (or 1.3%). Global oil supply rose 0.2 mb/d in November to 97.8 mb/d, the highest in a year, on the back of rising US production. OPEC crude supply fell in November for the fourth consecutive month to 32.36 mb/d, down 1.3 mb/d on a year ago. OECD commercial stocks fell 40.3 mb in October to 2 940 mb, their lowest level since July 2015. Benchmark crude prices rose by $4-5/bbl on average in November and traded at their highest level in more than two years in early December. Global refinery throughput in 3Q17 reached a record high at 81.2 mb/d, even including the impact of Hurricane Harvey, but has fallen back in 4Q17 due to maintenance. Looking at the day ahead, there is the European Council meeting in Brussels which continues into Friday with Brexit high on the agenda with Mrs May arriving after her voting loss last night. We’ve also got two central bank meetings due with both the BoE and ECB set to hold their last monetary policy meetings of the year. Datawise we’ll get the flash December PMIs in both Europe and the US, as well as the November retail sales data for the UK and US (0.6% mom expected for ex-auto). Other notable data prints include the final November CPI revisions in France, November import price index reading and weekly initial jobless claims data in the US. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 236,000, prior 236,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.9m, prior 1.91m 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.1%; Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Import Price Index MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.2%; Import Price Index YoY, est. 3.24%, prior 2.5% 8:30am: Export Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%; Export Price Index YoY, prior 2.7% 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 53.9, prior 53.9; Services PMI, est. 54.7, prior 54.5; Composite PMI, prior 54.5 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 52.3 10am: Business Inventories, est. -0.1%, prior 0.0% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A busy evening last night with the Fed rate hike and the UK Government losing a vote (305-309) in the Commons that makes it more likely that the final Brexit deal will have to get approved by Parliament and thus decreases the possibility of a hard Brexit but complicates the negotiation process. Before all this, the highlight of the day was yet another slightly weaker than expected CPI print. The 7th miss in 9 months. 10 year Treasuries traded as high as 2.425% before the number, then dropped to 2.367%, before ending the day at 2.342% after the dovish FOMC. To be honest this suits our short-term belief in carry and tighter spreads (through Q1) but we do expect inflation to start to misbehave more from Q2 onwards. However every inflation miss in the interim makes us more nervous as to whether we get the expected turn around. We still think we do by the time we get to the Spring but it’s fair to say that for us to be correct inflation now has to be sitting in the departure lounge waiting to board a flight taking off pretty soon. Turning to the FOMC, the Fed raised rates by 25bp as expected, on a 7-2 vote with both the Fed’s Kashkari and Evans dissenting. The market seems to have taken a slightly dovish take on the FOMC with 10y treasury yields lower (see above) and the US dollar index down 0.71% for the day. In the details, the Fed now projects the labour market to remain strong with a lower unemployment rate of 3.9% and stronger GDP growth across the forecast horizon, particularly next year where growth is expected to be 2.5% (vs. 2.1% previous), in part due to the expected tax plans. Despite these positive revisions, the Fed’s forecast for core inflation and the dot plots are unchanged, with median expectations of three more hikes in 2018 and CPI of 1.9% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019 & 2020. Moving onto Ms Yellen’s last press conference as the Fed Chair where she was fairly positive on a range of topics. On the economy, she said “I feel good about the economic outlook…risks are balanced and there’s less to lose sleep about now…” On US equities, she noted “the fact that those valuations are high doesn’t mean that they are necessarily overvalued” and on broader financial stability risks, no indicators she monitors “are flashing red or possibly even orange”. On the flatter yield curve, she noted “the yield curve is likely to be flatter than it’s been in the past” and that “it could more easily invert if the Fed were to even move to a slightly restrictive policy stance”. This is important as it indicates that the Fed aren’t as concerned as we would be about an inverted yield curve and could carry on hiking even if longer end yields stay low. Finally on tax, she noted FOMC members “generally identified changes in tax policy as a factor supporting modestly stronger (economic) outlook, although many noted much uncertainty remains about the macro-economic effects of the specific measures”. Further, she added that the economic uplift from tax cuts “it’s not a gigantic increase in growth” and could be mostly short term. Talking of tax reform, the plans are tracking well and could still become law by Christmas. President Trump noted the Senate and House negotiators have reached a tentative agreement and he hopes to sign the tax bill “in a very short period of time”. Some of the compromises noted by Bloomberg include: i) corporate tax rate of 21%, but begins from 2018, ii) mortgage deduction limit of $750k, iii) top individual tax rate of 37%, iv) 20% deduction on pass through business income, and v) repeal the alternative minimum tax. Earlier yesterday, the Senate Democratic leader Schumer called on Republicans to delay their tax bill vote until Doug Jones (winner of the Alabama election) can vote on the legislation. However, the earliest that Mr Jones can be seated is sometime between 26 December to 3 January, but the Republicans expect a full House and Senate vote on the final bill around next Tuesday (19 December), with the President expected to sign the "Tax Cut and Jobs Act" into law shortly after. Notably, Republican Senator McCain is currently away as he undergoes medical treatment, so things can still change given his crucial vote. In China, the November macro data just released was broadly in line but slightly lower than the prior month. Both the IP and fixed assets investments matched expectations at 6.1% yoy and 7.2% respectively, but were 0.1ppt lower than the prior month. Retail sales were softer than expectations at 10.2% yoy (vs. 10.3%). Elsewhere, China’s central bank has slightly increased the borrowing costs it charges in open market operations following the Fed’s move, lifting the cost of the 7 and 28 day reverse repo agreement by 5bp. This morning in Asia, markets are trading broadly weaker. The Nikkei (-0.31%), Hang Seng (-0.45%), and China’s CSI 300 (-0.64%) are modestly down but the Kospi is up 0.51% as we type. Treasuries have partly reversed yesterday’s gains and are up 2bps this morning. As a reminder, the ECB and BOE’s rate meeting are set for today. Firstly on the ECB, the likely focus will be on the latest staff macroeconomic forecasts, with the first outlook for 2020 due to be revealed. DB’s Mark Wall expects the core inflation 2020 forecast to be 1.6%/1/7% - consistent with previous 3-year ahead staff views. It’s also worth keeping an eye on Draghi’s press conference and particularly if he addresses some of the internal divisions which have been hinted at on forward guidance. The BoE meeting could be a non event as recent inflation prints and macro data were broadly in line with consensus. Notably, any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy could be the most interesting feature. Now recapping other market performance from yesterday. US equities were mixed but little changed after bouncing around following the mix of news from the softer CPI, the FOMC meeting and progress on the tax plans. The S&P ended 0.05% lower while the Nasdaq and Dow rose 0.20% and 0.33% respectively. Within the S&P, financials led the losses (-1.27%), partly impacted by the dovish FOMC, while modest gains came from consumer staples and industrials stocks. European markets were all lower, with key bourses down 0.1%-0.4% as losses in utilities offset gains from tech stocks. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (-0.24%), DAX (-0.44%) and FTSE (-0.05%) all fell modestly while Italy’s FTSE MIB led the losses, ending the day 1.44% lower. The VIX rose for the secondconsecutive day to 10.18 (+2.6%). Over in government bonds, treasuries firmed with UST 10y yields down 5.7bp while other core bond yields were little changed (Bunds flat; Gilts -0.7bp). Italy’s 10y BTP yields jumped 9bp after newspapers including Corriere della Sera and Messaggero reported that Italian elections could be held earlier at 4 March next year, with President Mattarella expected to dissolve the Parliament on 28 or 29 December to clear the way for elections. Notably, the potential for earlier elections is not new, but perhaps the increased support for the Five Star Movement party may have focused the mind. We note a recent Ipsos opinion poll showed the 5SM leading with 29.1% support versus 24.4% for the ruling Democratic party. Having said that it’s still very difficult for them to be a power broker given the new electoral law so it’s not altogether clear why Italy underperformed so much yesterday. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index dropped 0.71% following the dovish FOMC, while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.72% and 0.73% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil fell 0.82% following a rise in gasoline stockpiles and OPEC raised its outlook for non-OPEC supply in 2018. Elsewhere, precious metals increased modestly (Gold +0.88%; Silver +2.16%) while other base metals also edged higher (Aluminium flat; Zinc +0.08%; Copper +0.67%). Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the November core CPI (ex food and energy) was weaker than expectations at 0.12% mom (vs. 0.2%) and 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.8%), partly impacted by a 1.3% mom decline in the price of apparel (the biggest monthly decline in 19 years). Notably, inflation on a three month and six month annualised basis was a tad firmer at 1.9%, but at this point there is limited evidence that the trend in core CPI is reaching the Fed’s target of 2%. Looking ahead, our US economists expect core CPI to be slightly softer near term, but should remain near recent levels in yoy terms. Longer term, they expect core inflation to normalise next year. Refer to their note for more details. Elsewhere, the November real average hourly earnings growth was in line with the prior month’s reading of 0.2% yoy. In the UK, the October unemployment print was slightly higher than expectations at 4.3% (vs. 4.2% expected) with the number of people in work down 56k (vs. -40k expected) - the fastest pace in almost 2.5 years. Elsewhere, wage growth rose the most since January but was in line with expectations at 2.5% yoy, while the claimant count rate was steady mom at 2.3%. In Europe, the October Industrial Production was above market at 0.2% mom (vs. 0% expected) and 3.7% yoy (vs. 3.2% expected), but Italy’s IP was below consensus at 3.1% yoy (vs. 3.4%). Finally, the final reading of Germany’s November CPI was unrevised at 0.3% mom and 1.8% yoy. Looking at the day ahead, there is the European Council meeting in Brussels which continues into Friday with Brexit high on the agenda with Mrs May arriving after her voting loss last night. We’ve also got two central bank meetings due with both the BoE and ECB set to hold their last monetary policy meetings of the year. Datawise we’ll get the flash December PMIs in both Europe and the US, as well as the November retail sales data for the UK and US (0.6% mom expected for ex-auto). Other notable data prints include the final November CPI revisions in France, November import price index reading and weekly initial jobless claims data in the US.
Экономисты опасаются, что нынешние тенденции продолжатся в следующем году.
На прошлой неделе сырьевой индекс Bloomberg продемонстрировал самое существенное падение с марта, поскольку продажи ударили по всем секторам, в особенности по лидирующим отраслям: энергетике и промышленным металлам, сказал Trend в понедельник глава отдела ...
Despite broadly-spewed sentiment last week that Bitcoin futures would herald the end of Bitcoin as 'shorts' could finally capitalize on the 'tulipmania', for now, they have failed to turn up as the January-expiring futures are holding a 8% premium to spot prices and remain up around 19% from their opening print overnight. Futures are holding around a $1000-$1300 premium to spot for the last few hours - implying quite a serious 'term structure' for Bitcoin credit. Furthermore, instead of stabilizing Bitcoin as some had suggested, futures were actually more volatile than spot... “It is rare that you see something more volatile than bitcoin, but we found it: bitcoin futures,” said Zennon Kapron, managing director of Shanghai-based consulting firm Kapronasia. As Reuters reports, The roughly $1300 difference reflects not only the novelty of the asset but also the difficulty of using the cash-settled futures to trade against the spot, strategists said. “In a normal, functioning market, good old arbitrage would settle this,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark, said by email. “If they were deliverable you could arbitrage the life out of it.” Having crashed the CBOE website and been haklted twice in its first 24 hours, it has been anexciting debut for sure, but not quite what the 'experts' in the status quo expected... “The premiums have so far been very high, demonstrating that few want to take the short side of the trade,” said Altana Digital Currency Fund manager Alistair Milne, whose fund has $35 million in assets under management. Volume remains de minimus for now - around 2,878 contracts traded so far (or around $50 million notional)... That is around 2% of global Bitcoin trading volume since the open. “We’re in the early stages here, and there’s not enough professional liquidity from the big market makers who can provide depth and hold in the movements,” said Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda Corp. “It’s going to be a learning curve.”
Bitcoin - Plan Your Exit Strategy Now - Maybe With Gold Made money in bitcoin? Well done. Don’t wait until the stampede starts. Here’s what you must do now. by Dominic Frisby in Money Week So there I was on Sunday afternoon, doing what it is one does on a Sunday – very little in my case – and a notification comes up on my phone: “Bitcoin rises over 10% to $11,800”. Bitcoin in USD (1 Year). Source: CoinDesk On a Sunday. When every other market is closed. It’s bad enough that bitcoin is making every other market in the world look like a dirge when they’re open. But to carry on rising even when they’re closed! What is happening is almost incredible… I wrote the book on bitcoin – I understand why it’s a big deal. But… I get all the bitcoin arguments. It’s the money of the future. There’s a finite supply in the face of increasing demand, a demand which is global. The technology goes far beyond alternative cash systems. This is about the “S curve” adoption of a new tech – like TVs or mobile phones – a tech, which also happens to be money. I get all of that. I wrote a book about it, the first by a recognised publisher. All that stuff is true and more besides. The arguments for bitcoin get stronger and stronger as the narrative of the bull market evolves. But this is now a mania. All the messages I’m getting about it – and having written that book a lot of people contact me with questions – are not from people who are interested in the new tech. They’re from people who want in on what is proving to be the most epic bull market in history. They do not want to miss out. FOMO is rife. One arrived just as I was writing this article. The title read “Urgent Advice Please!” Note the exclamation mark. It was from an old school friend. Want to go into Bitcoin big right now. I have started small using Coinbase. What are your views on this and what exchange(s) would you recommend? Many thanks and hope to catch up properly before long! This guy is intelligent, experienced financier with 20 years experience in the private banking department at HSBC in Zurich, now working freelance in other fields. Is now, with the mania this evolved, the time to be going big? He clearly thinks so. How much research has he done? I’m not calling the top. There is a bubble of people calling bitcoin a bubble. Normally bubbles end when the shoe shine boy gets in. This one is the other way round. The shoe shine boys got in early. This one will pop when the institutions get in. That’s the remarkable reversed psychology of this story. The idea of an alternative money system, a money without governments, appealed first to anyone on the outside. It was especially appealing to those for whom, perhaps, life hadn’t worked out quite as well as they hoped (which is, let’s face it, most of us). Anyone who feels even slightly overlooked, alienated, left out or discontent. Playing this bull market, a bit like voting for Brexit or even Trump, is a bit like getting one back. There was a similar trait common amongst gold bugs in that bull market. “Haha! Screw you, establishment! Your money system’s going to die. We are the new millionaires!” The more bitcoin has risen, the more this narrative has taken hold. The mania has caught the zeitgeist of dissatisfaction that is currently sweeping the world. I’ve made the bullish case for bitcoin many times. I’ve shown how bitcoin could go to $100,000. But I’m no permabull either (although ultimately perma-bullish buy and hold, or HODL as it’s known in bitcoin circles, has been the best investment strategy so far – it always is in bull markets). In my book back in 2014, I said get familiar with the tech, try it out with small amounts of money, but as an investment the timing is not quite right. I was right with the call. Bitcoin was in a bear market. When I was writing the book, bitcoin was trading above $500, the bear market took it below $200 a coin. In spring 2016, with bitcoin around $450, I said it’s time to buy. I’ve made both bullish and bearish cases at different times. But there is something about now – and maybe it’s that email from my friend that did it – that has made me start thinking about what happens when this mania ends. Plan your exit strategy now. Don’t wait until the stampede starts When manias end, what is currently euphoria turns to pain. Another person emailed yesterday happily saying they’ve made $2,000 in two weeks, smiley face. How will they feel when they start losing $2,000 in two weeks? Such pain will be spread among the hordes – and I mean hordes – of inexperienced investors who have only recently got into Bitcoin. Many of these people are kids who've never lived through bear markets before. The pain will turn to panic. The Achilles heel in the whole crypto infrastructure is the point of transfer between fiat and crypto – getting your money in and getting it out. It's got better, but it is still not easy. One reason so many people have not invested as much as they would have liked has been the simple practical difficulty of actually buying the coins in the first place. Selling them for fiat, when everybody is trying to do the same thing, and getting your money out, will be harder.The deeper you're into crypto – perhaps you're into monero or dash or some other altcoin – the harder it will be to get out into fiat. The diehards will tell you you never need to leave crypto. That may be so, but many will not feel the same way in a bear market. If there is a rush into the arms of fiat, the point of transfer from crypto to fiat is where the issues are going to be. At present there is a plethora of buyers. There won't be when sentiment changes. When Bitcoin comes down, they will all come down. The sector moves as one. The very liquidity issues that have driven the Bitcoin price so high so quickly could work in reverse. So if you are long Bitcoin or any other crypto, my first bit of advice is this: sell a small amount now. Practise selling. Identify the obstacles in moving your money from crypto to fiat, and learn how to deal with them.Have your escape strategy clearly mapped out so that, when there is a rush for the exit – and there will be one day – you know exactly what you're doing and you won't get caught out. When liquidity dries up and the tide goes out, that's the point at which you realise who has been swimming naked. That's when the scams emerge, the frauds, the excessive debt and margin. Do the exchanges you use have the wherewithal to deal with an 80% crash (there have been five of these in Bitcoin's history) and the overwhelming traffic that accompanies a stampede for the exit? Which of these ICOs and altcoins are the genuine article and which are just hype and BS? Which are the ones people will hold onto and which will they drop? These are the questions you need to be asking now, during the euphoria stage of a bull market. Like I say, I'm not calling the top. I'm saying prepare for the top. What happens in the aftermath of a bubble such as this bursting? A lot of pain, a lot of recrimination, a lot of new demands for new laws and regulations to make it impossible for such a thing to happen again. And maybe that forgotten asset will start to look shiny and attractive once again: gold. Read the full article by Dominic Frisby on MoneyWeek here News and Commentary Gold little changed amid firm dollar (Reuters.com) Bitcoin Futures Trading Brings Crypto Into Mainstream (Reuters.com) Bitcoin exchange warns customers of system collapse if prices crash (CityAM.com) Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006 (Bloomberg.com) Malaysia 'ready' to send military to Jerusalem if needed (CNBC.com) US forces could potentially lose next war to Russia or China, warns sobering Rand report (CNBC.com) Gold’s Time Is Nigh (Bloomberg.com) Could gold do a bitcoin and hit $10,000 an ounce in 2018? (TheNational.ae) Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018 (DollarCollapse.com) Saxo Bank predicts Bitcoin at $60,000 before collapse to $1,000 in 2018 (CryptoCoinsNews.com) Bitcoin Futures Trading Brings Crypto Into Mainstream (Bloomberg.com) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 11 Dec: USD 1,251.40, GBP 935.80 & EUR 1,061.19 per ounce08 Dec: USD 1,245.85, GBP 924.42 & EUR 1,061.09 per ounce07 Dec: USD 1,256.80, GBP 937.57 & EUR 1,066.77 per ounce06 Dec: USD 1,268.55, GBP 948.37 & EUR 1,072.31 per ounce05 Dec: USD 1,275.90, GBP 950.29 & EUR 1,075.71 per ounce04 Dec: USD 1,279.10, GBP 952.67 & EUR 1,079.43 per ounce01 Dec: USD 1,277.25, GBP 946.57 & EUR 1,072.51 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 11 Dec: USD 15.84, GBP 11.84 & EUR 13.43 per ounce08 Dec: USD 15.83, GBP 11.76 & EUR 13.48 per ounce07 Dec: USD 15.91, GBP 11.94 & EUR 13.49 per ounce06 Dec: USD 16.12, GBP 12.06 & EUR 13.64 per ounce05 Dec: USD 16.29, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.72 per ounce04 Dec: USD 16.33, GBP 12.09 & EUR 13.77 per ounce01 Dec: USD 16.42, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.80 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Gold Demand Increases Along with Uncertainty Thanks to Trump, Brexit and North Korea- UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold- Bailins Coming In EU – 114 Italian Banks Have NP Loans Exceeding Tangible Assets- Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries- An Interview with GoldCore Founder, Mark O’Byrne- Risk Of Online Accounts Seen As One of Largest Brokerages In World Halts Online Trading After “Glitch”- Low Cost Gold In The Age Of QE, AI, Trump and War- Own Gold Bullion To “Support National Security” – Russian Central Bank- Bitcoin $10,000 – Huge Volatility of Cryptocurrencies and Risky Fiat Making Gold Attractive- Financial Advice from Dr Wayne Dyer- Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’- Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded- Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.