Выбор редакции
14 ноября, 10:00

Винегрет прогнозов и нефтяные горки в преддверии зимы

Октябрь завершился сильнейшим падением цен на нефть. Однако американские санкции в отношении Ирана все еще могут оказать им поддержку. Еще в начале октября этого года доминировали прогнозы роста стоимости нефти марки Brent до 85 или даже 100 за баррель к концу 2018 г. Тем не менее к концу прошлого месяца цена на этот сырьевой товар продемонстрировала максимальное месячное […]

Выбор редакции
28 сентября, 12:00

Нефтяной рынок и ценовое ралли

По данным Reuters, цены на нефть демонстрируют положительную динамику. Утром во вторник, 25 сентября, фьючерсы на нефть марки Brent поднялись на 0,28% до 81,43 долларов за баррель. Возобновление американских санкций против энергетического сектора Ирана, ожидаемое в ноябре 2018 г., и сомнения участников рынка относительно способности других нефтепроизводителей компенсировать выпадение объемов иранского сырья, поддерживают цены на […]

Выбор редакции
15 августа, 11:17

Нефть в тисках торговой войны и санкций против Ирана

В августе на рынках, как правило, наступает затишье, но в этом году ничего подобного мы не наблюдаем. Рынки находятся в замешательстве из-за продолжительной эскалации риторики торговой войны между Соединенными Штатами и Китаем. Инвесторы опасаются, что в будущем это поставит под угрозу рост мировой экономики и спроса. Мы наблюдаем рост геополитической напряженности после введения США дополнительных […]

Выбор редакции
31 июля, 10:00

Кредитный импульс: что ждет Россию после чемпионата мира по футболу

Вопреки тому, что мы могли бы предположить благодаря притоку валюты и более высоким ценам на нефть, чемпионат мира не оказал значительной поддержки рублю. Собственно, мы наблюдаем «отвязку» курса рубля от цен на нефть, которую мы наблюдали в 2017 г. в результате введения санкций Соединенных Штатов против России. С середины апреля цена на нефть марки Brent увеличилась более […]

10 июля, 09:00

Игра на повышение. Дефицит нефти и баррель за 150 долларов

Новые прогнозы, вбросы и факторы для анализа нефтяного рынка появились за последние несколько дней. Большинство из них играет на руку повышению цен на нефть. Самый свежий прогноз принадлежит главе Saudi Aramco Амину Насcеру, предупредившему о недостатке инвестиций в проекты по разработке традиционных запасов нефти, чрезмерной увлеченности крупных игроков сланцевыми и другими краткосрочными проектами, а также […]

08 июня, 16:29

Рынок нефти погряз в противоречивых новостях

Сырая нефть WTI, цена которой упала на 10% с недавнего пика, сейчас находится под влиянием множества противоречивых новостей. Добыча в Венесуэле перешла в свободное падение, в связи с чем США попросили Саудовскую Аравию и другие страны увеличить добычу.  Хотя цена сырой нефти начала снижаться только пару недель назад, давление на рынок растет с апреля, когда Дональд […]

Выбор редакции
18 апреля, 12:01

Saxo Bank предупреждает

К прогнозам, по моему мнению стоит вообще относится скептически, но иногда «Датские товарищи» попадают прямо в цель. Как говорится в прогнозе, «мы приближаемся к окончанию величайшего эксперимента в монетарной политике за всю историю. Это происходит на фоне усиления националистических настроений, продолжающегося неравенства и все большего разочарования и потери надежд среди представителей молодого поколения». Оригинал статьи: Суровые годы приходят борьбы за доходы страны

03 апреля, 14:43

США уничтожат мировую экономику

Глобальную финансовую катастрофу спровоцирует торговая война Вашингтона и Пекина

03 апреля, 14:05

Liquidation Panic Fades, Futures Rebound As Tech, Trade Turmoil Eases

Global trade concerns and the "tech wreck" remained the focus as European markets reopen from Easter break, however the selling turmoil that sent the Dow tumbling as much as 700 points on Monday has eased off with S&P futures set for a gentle rebound, if still below the 200DMA of 2,590... ... as Asian benchmarks pared much of their decline, and European stocks well off session lows. And while global markets which were closed on Monday are generally catching up to yesterday's liquidation in the US amid a sea of red... ... the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow were all poised to open in the green following Monday’s selloff, while Treasuries fell (and yields rose) alongside the dollar.  It's worth noting that the correlation between S&P 500 and Treasuries appears to be breaking down short-term, as 10-yr yields fall 1bp despite the stock index declining more than 2% and closing below 200-DMA for first time since June 2016 "There is actually very little contagion from all the equity market moves that are grabbing all the headlines," said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its first decline in four days as markets reopened after the long weekend, though the drop was less than half that of the S&P 500 a day earlier. Europe’s main markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt were all down more than 0.5%, after being closed on Monday when the pace of selling pushed U.S. markets below the key 200DMA support level. Meanwhile, not helping matters was the weakest euro-area manufacturing figures in eight months which added to the gloom and fears that the European economy is now rolling over, resulting in the euro paring almost all of its advance, helping exporters. As shown below, today's sentiment disappointment was across the board. Eurozone March manufacturing PMI 56.6, down from 58.6 in Feb. Germany March manufacturing PMI 58.2, down from 60.6 in Feb. France March manufacturing PMI 53.7, down from 55.9 in Feb. As Bloomberg notes, a similar rollover in business climate indicator last week was seen as sell signal for European stocks. Earlier, Asian shares also stumbled overnight, although less than Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei ended down 0.45 percent, after falling as much as 1.6 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite index eased 0.9% and the blue-chip CSI300 was off 0.7%. Australian stocks recovered as mining stocks and energy names outperformed. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the tech-related losses and after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for an 8th consecutive occasion, while markets in Hong Kong also took their 1st opportunity to react to  China’s tariffs on US products and reports of the government pressuring banks to halt local government lending. Meanwhile, despite today's risk rebound, it may be too early to declare victory over the selloff: recall that on Monday the S&P 500 closed at a seven-week low of 2,581.88 on Monday, and below its 200-DMA for the first time since Brexit (and Gartman has yet to go short, again). And while some, such as JPM have again reiterated their long-running and incorrect mantra to buy the dip, others are no longer buying the KoolAid such as French bank Kepler Cheuvreux: "This phase of correction has not yet reached its climax and that investors should sell market bounces from this point. The final stage of this correction should be characterized by authentic investor pain and panic and by a shift into defensive assets, which should be visible by the end of April. We would start to buy stocks when we see the S&P 500 at the 2,500 threshold." Others are more lukewarm: "What we are really seeing across the economies and markets are opposing forces playing out: in the economy you are seeing Fed versus inflation, in markets you are seeing momentum versus fundamental supports,” JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Hannah Anderson told Bloomberg TV. “Investors need to be aware of these opposing forces along with a lot of the headline risk we are seeing come through when it comes to trade and regulation and how that’s going to impact their portfolios." In other overnight developments, overnight BoJ Governor Kuroda said the bank is internally discussing an exit from current monetary policy but will not communicate it with the markets until policy normalising timing draws near. He added the BoJ will patiently continue easing of current monetary policy as there is still a distance to the price target. Also overnight, the RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 1.50% as expected and reiterated that steady policy is consistent with growth and inflation goals. RBA also repeated that a strengthening currency would result to slower pace of economic pick-up but that the currency remains in the range seen prior years, while it also commented that inflation likely to stay low for some time.  U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds and UK Gilts all saw a bit of selling, with yields on 10-year notes off two- to three-month lows. “The big question is how far the current tremor in the equity market will affect bonds, given it is driven by a single company - even if it is a tech giant having a huge market weight,” said DZ Bank strategist Christian Lenk. Among the main commodities, Brent oil futures nudged back up towards $68 a barrel. They had fallen more than 3.7% on Monday after news of rising Russian output and the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute weighed on sentiment. WTI gained 14 cents to $63.15, copper jumped 1.4% for its fourth straight gain and spot gold ticked down 0.2 percent to $1,338.08 an ounce. Expected data include auto sales for March. International Speedway, Cloudera, and Dave & Buster’s are among companies reporting earnings. Despite the ongoing tech turmoil, music-streamer Spotify Technology is set to launch its alternative IPO on the NYSE. As noted previously, the trading price will remain a mystery until existing holders sell shares. Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk European bourses are lower after losses on Wall St. and Asia overnight (Eurostoxx -0.9%) as Chinese trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across the bourses. The broad Dollar remains on the back foot amidst heighted US vs China tit-for-tat import tariff impositions, but off worst levels vs G10 and other major counterparts. Looking ahead, highlights include APIs and Fed’s Kashkari Top Overnight News China will respond to any tariffs imposed by the U.S. against alleged violations of intellectual property rights with the same proportion, scale and intensity, said its U.S. ambassador Cui Tiankai The Bank of Japan is talking about how to eventually exit from its massive monetary stimulus program, but it’s still too early to reveal details, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament Tuesday Trains and planes were canceled across France as unions pushed forward with protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to strip benefits from some state workers The pound has appreciated versus the dollar every April during the last 13 years in what Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes as the strongest seasonal trend among Group-of-10 currencies The Trump administration is pushing for a preliminary Nafta deal to announce at a summit in Peru next week, and will host cabinet ministers in Washington to try to achieve a breakthrough, according to three people familiar with the talks Oil held losses after the biggest decline in almost two months as fears of a trade war prompted investors to flee commodities and other risky assets President Donald Trump’s imported steel and aluminum tariff announcement helped send a measure of raw-material prices paid to an almost seven-year high in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey The New York Fed is set to begin publishing its three new reference rates at 8am ET on Tuesday, including the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR), the rate selected by the Alternative Reference Rates Committee to replace USD Libor Sterling appreciated versus the dollar every April during the last 13 years in what Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes as the strongest seasonal trend among Group-of-10 currencies Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,584.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 367.12 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.05% to 172.41 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.07% to 564.15 Nikkei down 0.5% to 21,292.29 Topix down 0.3% to 1,703.80 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 30,180.10 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,136.63 Sensex down 0.06% to 33,236.17 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,751.92 Kospi down 0.07% to 2,442.43 German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.507% Euro up 0.2% to $1.2329 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $68.18/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 5.4 bps to 1.532% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.18% Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,337.34 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 89.86 Asian stocks were mostly lower as the downbeat tone rolled over from Wall St where China’s trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across all bourses, with losses in the S&P 500 (-2.2%) exacerbated on technical selling after a break below the 200DMA while the Nasdaq underperformed as it slipped into the red YTD and into correction territory. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) both opened lower with the latter suffering the brunt of a firmer currency and with losses seen across tech names following similar underperformance in their US counterparts, which was led by selling in Amazon after President Trump’s tirade on the online giant. Conversely, Australian stocks then recovered as mining stocks and energy names outperformed. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) conformed to the tech-related losses and after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for an 8th consecutive occasion, while markets in Hong Kong also took their 1st opportunity to react to China’s tariffs on US products and reports of the government pressuring banks to halt local government lending. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they tracked the prior session’s gains in T-notes amid the risk-averse tone, while the 10yr JGB auction results were inconclusive with the results mixed as the b/c fell but accepted prices surged from prior. Top Asian News Renesas Tumbles as Top Shareholders Plan to Unload Stakes China’s Xi Turns Deleveraging Sights on Local Governments, SOEs Xiaomi CEO Calls China’s Plan to Lure Tech Listings ‘Excellent’ Indian Bonds Rally After RBI Allows Banks to Spread Debt Losses Turkey Overheating Means Race Against Time for President Erdogan European bourses have opened lower after losses on Wall St. and Asia overnight (Eurostoxx -0.9%), Chinese trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across the bourses. The tech sell-off rolled over from the previous  sessions with the sector currently underperforming. Semi-conductors are amongst the worst performers as names take a hit on the news that Apple is looking to steer away from Intel chips to create their own by 2020. On the flip side, Barclays was initially higher after reports the bank is planning a multi-million GBP share buyback. Miners are amongst the top performers after feeling the boost from firmer base metal prices. Finally, Sky (+1.3%) is at the top of the FTSE 100 amid news that Fox is offering to sell Sky News to Disney as it seeks to obtain regulatory clearings for its proposed takeover of Sky Top European News TomTom Shares Climb in Amsterdam as Deal Speculation Continues U.K. Factories Sustain Growth After Entering ‘Softer’ Phase Euro-Area Manufacturers Rein in Output Amid Capacity Constraints May Faces Industrial Quicksand Again in Melrose’s GKN Deal In FX, we look at the DXY first: the broad Dollar remains on the back foot amidst heighted US vs China tit-for-tat import tariff impositions, but off worst levels vs G10 and other major counterparts to leave the Index close to the 90.000 mark within a 89.850-90.070 approximate range. JPY: One of the more lively currencies as EU markets return from their extended Easter break amidst some mixed and contradictory comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda (at least in terms of the wire headline interpretations). He initially underscored easy policy guidance and appeared to quell any speculation about an exit given that inflation is still some distance from target, but then revealed that internal discussions about unwinding the balance sheet and raising rates are underway, though nothing will be communicated to the markets until such time that economic growth and prices are right. Usd/Jpy fell abruptly from just above 106.00 towards the 105.70 low before rebounding to around 106.20 and a slightly higher peak vs yesterday’s 105.66 base. CAD (and MXN). The Loonie is gleaning support from latest NAFTA reports suggesting that US President Trump is keen on nailing down a deal by the middle of the month, with Usd/Cad back under 1.2900. GBP. Cable is extending gains above 1.4050 towards 1.4100 and Eur/Gbp is looking at bids/support around 0.8750 in wake of a firmer than forecast UK manufacturing PMI and amidst UK press reports claiming that PM May is looking at a customs partnership as a resolution for the Irish border. EUR. Eur/Usd is back above 1.2300 after mixed Eurozone national manufacturing PMIs left the pan print unchanged from the preliminary reading, and with little real reaction to an FT story putting Liikanen in pole spot to replace Draghi as next head of the ECB. In commodities, oil prices posted gains despite Russia’s production for March climbing to 10.97mln bpd making the country the largest oil producer in the world. Prices also held gains, ignoring potential reductions in Saudi Arabian oil  prices. Gold prices inched lower, despite softer equities which continued to sell-off. Elsewhere, profit taking sent Chinese steel futures lower for the first time in six trading sessions. London copper hits its highest level in more than a week, lifted by better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMIs. US Event Calendar Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.1m, prior 12.9m; Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.9m, prior 17m 9:30am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Regional Economic Forum 4:30pm: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on Financial Stability DB's Jim Reid, who has just returned from a 2 week vacation, concludes the overnight wrap While I was away markets have certainly been as moody as a temperamental toddler and the first trading day of the quarter yesterday started pretty badly as well. In my absence I’ve had to catch up with the tariff/protectionism developments, White House personnel changes, the tech sector/Facebook woes and weaker PMIs to name but a few of the headwinds facing markets. Indeed it’s been a bit of a perfect storm. The drivers above are unrelated but have all bubbled up to the surface at a similar time. As today is the first EMR of the month we recap both March and Q1 2018 from a performance point of view at the end with all the graphs and tables in the full report if you click on the link in our email. As you’ll see March saw 22 of our 39 regularly tracked global asset with a negative total return with 21 seeing the same in Q1. All this after a stomping January. As an example the S&P 500’s total return has dropped from +5.72% at the end of January to -0.76% by the end of Q1 and after yesterday the index is actually down over 10% from the January highs. So as discussed US markets were one of the few open yesterday and it wasn’t particularly pretty with the S&P 500 (-2.23%) and the NASDAQ (-2.74%) down to the lows seen in early February, although both did recover from intra-day lows of -3.30% and -3.65% respectively. Within tech, Intel dropped the most in 2 years (-6.07%) as Bloomberg reported that Apple is planning to use its own chips in Mac computers from 2020, while Amazon fell -5.21% as President Trump noted that “only fools…are saying our money losing Post office makes money with Amazon….and this will be changed…” and Senator Rubio also tweeted “potential new economy monopolies will require close monitoring”. Adding to the negative sentiment, on Sunday China announced retaliatory tariffs on 128 US products including a 25% charge on pork and seamless steel pipes, broadly in line with prior press articles that tariffs would apply to c$3bn worth of US goods. Notably, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that “…both sides should use dialogue and consultation to resolve their mutual concerns”. Elsewhere, the VIX jumped 18.28% to 23.62 and yields on UST 10y fell 0.9bp, while all sectors within the S&P were down with losses led by the tech, consumers and materials sector. This morning in Asia, markets have followed the negative US lead with the Nikkei (-0.52%), Kospi (-0.47%), Hang Seng (-0.61%), and Shanghai Comp. (-0.87%) all down as we type. The futures on S&P are up c0.3% while yields on UST 10y are c1bp higher. Elsewhere, unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that the White House wants Canada and Mexico to join in unveiling the broad outlines of a new NAFTA deal at the Summit of the Americas next week,  while finer technical details could continue later on. For the week ahead, outside of the PMIs today and Thursday, and European CPI (tomorrow) the big events are back loaded to Friday with the release of the March employment report in the US, followed by Fed Chair Powell's speech on the Economic Outlook. With regards to the March employment report, the market consensus is currently pegged at a 189k payrolls print, while our US economists are slightly above this at 200k. Remember that this follows that bumper 313k reading in February. Our economists also note that March has historically been a difficult forecast month as the median consensus estimate has overestimated the initial March nonfarm payrolls print in four of the last five years by an average of 62k. For the crucial average hourly earnings, our economists expect a +0.2% mom reading, which would be sufficient to raise the annual rate by one-tenth to +2.66% yoy - still about 10bps below the January high of +2.77% yoy. It's worth noting that we have only seen the average hourly earnings print match consensus on one occasion in the last six months (three of those months have been above consensus, and two have been misses). Before we take a look at the full week ahead calendar and the performance review, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March ISM manufacturing index fell 1.5pts mom from its 13 year high to 59.3 and was modestly below expectations (vs. 59.6). Notably, the ISM prices paid measure rose 3.9pts to the highest since April 2011 (78.1 vs. 72.5 expected) with price increases across 17 of 18 industry sectors last month. The ISM noted there were indications that labour and skill shortages were affecting production. Over the Easter break, the February PCE core was in line at 0.2% mom and 1.6% yoy, which leads to a 6 month annualised rate of 2.1%. The February personal income (0.4% mom) and personal spending (0.2% mom) were also both in line. Elsewhere, the March Chicago PMI was below expectations at 57.4 (vs. 62). In Europe, Germany’s March unemployment rate was in line at 5.3% while the March CPI was below market at 1.5% yoy (vs 1.6% expected). Elsewhere, France’s March CPI (1.7% yoy vs. 1.5%) and Italy’s CPI were both above expectations (1.1% yoy vs 0.8%). In China, its March manufacturing PMI rose for the first time since November and was above market at 51.5 (vs. 50.6 expected). The release of the manufacturing PMIs in Europe should dominate the morning session with final March revisions due, as well as a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. In the US the only data due is March vehicle sales. The Fed's Kashkari is also due to speak again. Away from this, President Trump is due to meet with leaders of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia at the White House.

03 апреля, 11:26

Апокалипсис уже завтра: Трамп добьет глобальную экономику

Глобальная экономика показывает "признаки замедления". И это еще – "оптимистичный сценарий", предупреждают эксперты Saxo Bank. Алармистский же сценарий, свидетельствующий о завершении восстановительного цикла, выглядит так: в любой момент "может рвануть" -- и повторится кризисный 2008 год. Причем, с какого сектора экономики начнется обвал рынков, неизвестно. Но если торговая война между США и Китаем перейдет в реальную фазу, это будет началом конца.

03 апреля, 11:26

Эксперты: мировая экономика может обвалиться "в любой момент"

Глобальная экономика показывает "признаки замедления". И это еще – "оптимистичный сценарий", предупреждают эксперты Saxo Bank. Алармистский же сценарий, свидетельствующий о завершении восстановительного цикла, выглядит так: в любой момент "может рвануть" - и повторится кризисный 2008 год. Причем, с какого сектора экономики начнется обвал рынков, неизвестно. Но если торговая война между США и Китаем перейдет в реальную фазу, это будет началом конца.

30 марта, 03:00

Saxo Chief Economist Warns Consumers "Maxed Out", Fears 30% Plunge In Stock Market

"I think overall we have been pricing in for Goldilocks and we are closer to Frankenstein to be honest," warned Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank's outspoken chief economist, during an interview with CNBC, and that divergence from reality could mean markets face a 25-30% correction from a potential sudden recession scenario. Jakobsen cited several factors including growing credit-card loans (and soaring delinquencies), a widening fiscal deficit in the U.S., doubts over infrastructure spending plans, and a potential trade war. "All the data we've seen over the last few weeks has basically been that the consumer is maxed out, we've seen that in credit card loans as well, so I think the consumer is done spending the money." The Saxo Bank economist appears to have noticed what we highlighted earlier in the month, that while the larger U.S. banks that dominate credit card issuance have focused on prime and super prime consumers post the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and have enjoyed a prolonged period of low charge off rates concurrent with the Fed’s almost decade long ZIRP. As TCW's Chet Melhotra notes, it is America's smaller banks - those not in the Top 100 by asset size - that have experienced in just the recent months a surge in charge off deterioration, which at 7.9% is on par with the last financial crisis!  In other words, to find where the next consumer credit crisis hides - and will erupt next - ignore the big banks and focus on the smaller ones.   And as we also noted here, judging by the collapse in household "buying plans," the consumer is indeed "maxed out" as Steen notes.   As CNBC details, Jakobsen highlighted a "Goldilocks" scenario that he feels traders are mistakenly pricing in to markets, where fresh economic data are either not too hot or not too cold. Overall, the global economy is currently experiencing lower levels of unemployment and higher growth. Looking at 2018 in particular, many analysts hoped for strong global growth on the back of higher inflation and higher investment, but according to Jakobsen, these drivers "aren't actually materializing." Instead, Jakobsen made a reference to the novel "Frankenstein," arguing that the economy had been skewed by central bankers, who have injected trillions of dollars into the global economy to boost growth and investment. Estimates for the first quarter of 2018 "started at more than 5 percent expected GDP (gross domestic product); we are now significantly less than 2 percent for the (first quarter) expected, so I don't really see things happening in the growth area," Jacobsen added. "We've been at 2 percent exactly since the financial crisis, I don't think we're going to deviate from that," he said. And Jakobsen warns that in a scenario of a potential sudden economic recession, he sees a possible market correction of between 25 and 30 percent.

Выбор редакции
26 марта, 12:30

Нефтеюань, ставлю на коллапс.

Saxo bank: — с переходом на нефтеюани курс юаня подскочит на 10% к американской валюте home.saxo/campaigns/outrageous-predictions-2018  USDCNY below 6.0 Китай убьет нефтедоллар, до начала X осталось ...  maxpark.com/community/5392/content/6269646  Ну и здесь на смарт лабе китайской валюте пророчат доминирование в мире, над всеми остальными валютами smart-lab.ru/blog/460075.php  Прогнозов много, но я склонен проверять на астро гороскоп, перед входом  в позиции.   Итак гороскоп Юаня, только  кратко, а краткость это сестра:- 16 мая Уран у нас переходит в Телец и соединяется с Меркурием, это первый удар по Шанхай композит. Далее в конце июня Марс станет R и в начале июля 2018 начнет двигаться на асцендент натала Китая, в июле в китайской экономики долговые проблемы начнут усложняться, а с августа давление на Юань нарастает. 2 июля 2019 солнечное затмение попадает тенью на Пекин, плюс действует орбис оппозиции тр Нептуна к Сатурну Китая, этот аспект был гороскопе Таиланда в 1997 — 1998 годах, когда бат и экономика Таиланда пострадали больше всех в кризисе тихоокеанской азии.  В декабре 2019 — январе 2020 в гороскопе Китая мы видим Юпитер в оппозиции Урана Китая, юань будет девальвирован, по аналогии 2 июля 1997 бата Таиланда. В общем текущий аспект соединение Сатурн — Плутон 12 января 2020 года в орбисе до и после вызовет хаос не только в Китае, но и на развитых биржах мира. Резуме: ничего не имею против новой мировой резервной валюты Юань, будет обвал USDCNY как предсказывает Saxo Bank, сниму шляпу, но к сожалению мой анализ не подтверждает прогнозы аналитиков банков, инвестиционных домов и смарт — лаба. Моя прогноз -  рост USDCNY.       

20 марта, 21:06

Steen Jakobsen: Now Is The Time To Be In Capital-Preservation Mode

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com, Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist of Saxo Bank, is sounding a clear warning of an arriving market correction. Over-inflated asset prices, over-crowded trades, anemic market liquidity, and a continued decline in the credit impulse set the table for a banquet of consequences, in Steen's view. Confident a market correction of at least 15% lies ahead, Jakobsen urges investors to exit leveraged positions and build cash. As for a longer view, he predicts commodities will be one of the best asset classes to own over the next five to ten years: Every single product available to investors today at has less liquidity than is perceived. I think one of the biggest gaps between perception and reality right now is the ability to actually exit the portfolio you're in. Whether that's an ETF, whether that's credit, or whether that's even some of the small cap stocks. We already have a proof of this because the spike in February. Think about it: it was just a 5% move in terms of price, but it created almost a 10,000% increase in volatility. If a 5% move creates that sort of noise in the system, it shows that we're playing musical chairs. And when the music stops we're not missing one chair, but we're going to be missing three chairs in a ten-chair race. It's pretty clear that the liquidity side is a concern. This afternoon a un-named Central Bank called me up and wanted to talk about liquidity in ETFs and the bigger risk of the market itself. If you look at the breadth of the stock market over the last couple of weeks, it's very, very, very narrow. So we're all chasing the same investments, we're chasing the same themes. We're assume everything is benign when we talk about risk. But I'm very concerned. My quantitative model supports this caution; it's saying we really have to be in the mode of capital preservation now. This is the time for capital preservation. Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Steen Jakobsen (45m:44s).

07 марта, 18:35

WTI/RBOB Rebound After Inventory Data Despite Record Production

RBOB has given up its post-API gains and RBOB is sliding into the DOE data but both jumped as Gasoline inventories drew down and crude's build was bigger than the whisper number. Production jumped to a new record high. Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle points out that the prospect of a trade war raised by U.S. President Donald Trump is narrowing distillate crack spreads even as demand remains robust. The fear is that a dispute would dampen industrial activity, reducing demand for diesel fuel that powers trucks and machinery.   API Crude +5.66mm (+3mm exp) Cushing -790k exp Gasoline -4.536mm - biggest draw since Oct 2017 Distillates +1.487mm DOE Crude +2.408m (+3mm exp, whisper +2mm) Cushing -605k (-600k exp) Gasoline -788k (+1mm exp) Distillates -559k Inventories are just 2% above the five-year norm, with Cushing stockpiles more than 45% below the average.   All eyes are again on US crude production after EIA upped its forecasts and OPEC begged for Shale to stop... but production jumped 86k last week to a new record high... Despite a kneejerk higher after API's big gasoline draw, RBOB has pushed lower along with WTI ahead of the DOE data, but both rebounded after (though RBOB is fading the initial jump) “Oil fundamentals have been showing signs of weakening,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Strong non-OPEC oil-production growth looks set to challenge OPEC and Russia’s ability to maintain price stability.”

24 февраля, 16:25

Kitco: обзор рынка золота с 19 по 23 февраля 2018 г.

Хотя на рынке золота сохраняется "бычий" тренд, аналитики, тем не менее, всё равно рекомендуют инвесторам быть на следующей неделе осторожными с наращиванием позиций в драгметалле по ряду причин...

14 февраля, 14:58

US Futures, Global Stocks Rise Before The "Most Important CPI Print Ever"

As we previewed earlier this week, only one number matters for the markets - both stocks and bonds - this week, and it will be released at 8:30am this morning, when the BLS unveils the January CPI print, dubbed by various trading desks as "the most important CPI print ever", with every trader, both carbon and semiconductor based, focusing only on whether core CPI comes at 0.2% as expected, or higher. If it's the latter, TSY yields will spike - conventional wisdom goes - while the second leg of the equity rout could be unleashed. Inversely, if the core CPI disappoints, we may see a sharp move lower in 10Y yields and the dollar, while stocks prepare to retest all time highs. “Since the last payrolls about two weeks ago, inflation is the obsession of traders,” Pierre Martin, a trader at Saxo Bank in Zurich, told Bloomberg. “Given the selloff in stocks and with a lot of brokers pushing clients to buy the dip, people are trying to position themselves ahead of the CPI figures today. The sentiment is that a lot has been priced in already, but I’m a bit more cautious and wouldn’t be surprised to see volatility aftershocks in the coming days,” Martin said. There have been no volatility shocks for now, however, as one look at the futures and global stocks ahead of today's CPI shows not only the inverse of yesterday's early sea of red (which quickly turned green) but broad consensus - for now at least - that either the CPI number will disappoint or the market will promptly decide it does not matter if it indicates the economy is overheating. Following another day of strong gains around the globe, S&P index futures extended gains, hitting a session high as European opened when the E-mini ran upside stops through Monday highs, although gains have since been somewhat pared back. March contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent just after 6am ET, fluctuating during Asian trading hours. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.6 percent, while the Nasdaq 100 Index was up 0.6 percent. Also keep in mind that even if the CPI proves to be a dud, today is the monthly VIX options expiration. Counting puts and calls, there are 15.4 million VIX options outstanding, and 40% of them mature today. The move has the potential to spark substantial market volatility. Ahead of the CPI, traders were again keenly focused on the second day of drama in the USDJPY which as noted overnight, took out a huge barrier as the Japanese currency hit a fresh 15-month high only to see dollar buyers emerge on break below 107.00 amid concerns faster U.S. inflation will drive down stocks. Both the Nikkei (-0.4%) and Topix (-0.8%) closed red as a result. However, after the European open, the Yen lost some ground as the dollar rebounded after its 4th consecutive day of losses, and at last check the USDJPY was trading around 107.40. As Bloomberg notes, USD/JPY recovered back to 107.50 after breaking below 107.00 in Asian session, leading to broader recovery for USD across G-10, DXY comes back to flat. In other currencies, the ZAR rallied after ANC confirmed a no-confidence vote in Zuma for tomorrow, while the SEK eventually weakened as Riksbank stresses lack of confidence in inflation levels. Equity trading during the Asian session was mixed as the region failed to sustain upward US. Australia's ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued amid underperformance in its largest weighted financial sector as banks mulled over the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority’s discussion paper on the application of a future leverage ratio, while Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) underperformed after disappointing Q4 GDP data and as exporters suffered the ill-effects of the soaring Yen.  Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+2.3%) were resilient with Hong Kong propped up by strength among financials.  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.6% - it biggest daily gain since May 2016 - and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 2.8%, with banks leading the gains as U.S. futures jumped. Hang Seng Bank was the best performer on Hang Seng, rising 7.3% and heading for biggest daily gain since May 2009; co.’s rating and price target raised at Goldman. The mainland Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indexes were cautiously higher as Chinese markets wind down for lunar new year break. European stocks also advanced as investors assess earnings figures from companies including Natixis and Credit Suisse. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rosw 0.6% in a broad rally. Banks were the best-performing industry group as Natixis and Credit Suisse lead gains. Sky climbed 3.2%, among the best gainers on the Stoxx 600, after the company secured its position as leading broadcaster of Premier League soccer for the next three-year cycle, reducing the cost per match by 16%. Meanwhile, after 10Y yields sunk to session lows around midnight, just above 2.80%, treasuries rebounded with futures and the dollar, rising to 2.84%; there was bull-flattening observed in both JGB and Aussie curves amid wider risk-off. Once again, if the CPI surprises to the upside, watch as the 10Y yield jumps above 2.90% on its way to 3.00% and beyond. Elsewhere, WTI and Brent crude futures traded lower in the wake of yesterday’s build in API inventories ahead of today’s DoE release with focus on US production figures which climbed above the 10mln bpd level last week and surpassed that of Saudi Arabia. In terms of recent energy commentary, the Saudi Oil Minister Al Falih says Saudi Arabia will invest for maximum oil output capacity and thus shows no signing of caving to the ongoing surge in US production. In metals markets, spot gold is modestly firmer, tracking fluctuations in the USD, while Copper saw its largest jump since October during Asia-Pac trade as shorts were covered ahead of the Lunar New Year and Dalian Iron Ore printed 3-week highs. In other news, the South African police have raided Gupta family's home. Ajay, Atul and Tony Gupta are accused of using their friendship with Mr Zuma to control state appointments and contracts, claims they and the president have denied, the FT reported. . There were also reports that Zuma was arrested but this was dismissed as fake news by the South African police minister Mbalula. Later it was reported that South African ANC have pushed for a motion of no confidence against Zuma for tomorrow. Figures on inflation and retail sales are set to face closer scrutiny than usual after the recent market plunge.  Scheduled earnings include Cisco Systems, Applied Materials and Marriott. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,673.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 373.40 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.3% to 172.95 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 1% to 569.23 Nikkei down 0.4% to 21,154.17 Topix down 0.8% to 1,702.72 Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 30,515.60 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,199.16 Sensex down 0.05% to 34,281.61 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,841.24 Kospi up 1.1% to 2,421.83 German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.736% Euro up 0.06% to $1.2360 Brent Futures down 0.7% to $62.30/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 4.8 bps to 1.815% Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 1.498% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $62.30/bbl Gold spot up 0.08% to $1,330.59 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 89.65 Top Overnight News Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell suggested that the U.S. central bank would push ahead with gradual interest-rate increases even as it remains on the lookout for threats to the financial system in the wake of the recent stock market rout. China tightened restrictions on equity-linked options trading, people familiar with the matter said, the latest sign that authorities are acting to contain market turbulence after the biggest stock slump in two years The euro-area economy expanded 0.6% q/q in the fourth quarter, in line with estimates, while industrial output expanded 0.4% m/m in December, versus +0.1% estimate Portugal, Malta, Slovakia and Latvia already have said they intend to support Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos over Irish central bank governor Philip Lane to be the next vice president of the ECB. Officials from Austria, Cyprus and Finland told Bloomberg they are leaning toward supporting Guindos Japan’s economy expanded for an eighth quarter, but the pace of growth fell sharply and missed expectations Michael D. Cohen, President Trump’s longtime personal lawyer, said on Tuesday that he paid $130,000 out of his own pocket to a pornographic-film actress who had once claimed to have had an affair with Mr. Trump Economists who were slow to predict the first Bank of England interest-rate hike in a decade last year now expect the next one to come in May, but the decision is seen as being on a knife-edge Dutch Foreign Minister Halbe Zijlstra quit his post after admitting he lied about attending a 2006 meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, stepping down the same day he had been scheduled to travel to Moscow to meet his Russian counterpart U.S. forces killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria last week in what may be the deadliest clash between citizens of the former foes since the Cold War, according to one U.S. official and three Russians familiar with the matter. Asian sentiment was mixed as region failed to sustain the momentum from US, where stocks continued their rebound and posted a 3rd consecutive gain. ASX 200 (-0.3%) was subdued amid underperformance in its largest weighted financial sector as banks mulled over the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority’s discussion paper on the application of a future leverage ratio, while Nikkei 225 (-0.4%) underperformed after disappointing Q4 GDP data and as exporters suffered the ill-effects of a firmer currency. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+2.3%) were resilient with Hong Kong propped up by strength amongst financials. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher amid a risk-averse tone in Japan and alongside overnight gains in USTs, while the 5yr JGB auction results were somewhat inconclusive and failed to impact prices. PBoC skipped open market operations. Top Asian News Japan’s Slower Growth, Surging Yen Tie the BOJ to Stimulus Singapore Economy Grows at Slower Pace Than Previously Estimated Hong Kong Stocks Set for Boost After Double Whammy Bruising Late Rally Spurs Hong Kong Shares to Biggest Gain Since May 2016 Malaysia Set for Solid, But Moderating Growth in 2018 European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.7%) trade higher across the board as sentiment remains supported in the wake of a firmer Wall St. close and mixed Asia-Pac session with macro newsflow otherwise relatively light for the region. In terms of sector specifics, financials have been in focus following earnings from Credit Suisse (+3.2%) who sit at the top of the SMI with gains for the sector mildly offset by Credit Agricole (-2.1%) who failed to appease investors with their latest statement. Elsewhere, energy names lag their peers alongside price action for WTI and Brent in the wake of yesterday’s API build. Top European News Euro-Area Economy Keeps Cruising Speed as 2018 Outlook Improves H&M Forecasts Physical Stores to Return to Growth Next Year Melrose Say Would Keep GKN’s Powder Metallurgy Unit German Economy Zips Along as Trade and Spending Drive Growth Five Star’s Pay Pledge Backfires: Italy Campaign Trail In currencies, the early focus on the Swedish Krona and a knee-jerk reaction to Riksbank Ohlsson’s objection against holding the repo rate steady at -0.5%. Eur/Sek briefly dropped below 9.8750 as the hawkish Board member dissented in favour of a 25 basis point hike before rebounding towards pre-policy verdict session highs (around 9.9200) on the unchanged guidance for tightening in H2 this year, slightly softer inflation outlook and caveat that more easing remains an option if favourable economic conditions change. Thereafter, SEK was placed under pressure during Jansson’s presser after stating that the Bank discussed whether to delat the first rate hike path.Meanwhile, the Jpy continued its sharp appreciation vs the Dollar and other major currency counterparts overnight, with Usd/Jpy taking out the 2017 low circa 107.30, and reported big barriers at 107.00 to record a fresh multi-year base around 106.85. However, spec short covering has subsequently pushed the pair back up over the 107.00 level to test offers around 107.50, and this has helped the DXY recover 89.500+ status. Eur/Usd looks flanked by bids and offers at 1.2350 and 1.2400 respectively, with hefty option expiries in the vicinity of those range extremes also likely to provide support and resistance (2.6 bn between 1.2335-50 and 2 bn from 1.2400-05). Other Usd/G10s are also relatively rangebound, but the Kiwi is outperforming after a rise in NZ inflation expectations, with Nzd/Usd back above 0.7300. In the EM region, Usd/Zar remains in the spotlight and back  near recent lows around 11.8500 awaiting a response from President Zuma to the latest ANC party ‘requests’ to stand down, while raids on Gupta family residences have resulted in several arrests. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures trade lower in the wake of yesterday’s build in API inventories ahead of today’s DoE release with focus on US production figures which climbed above the 10mln bpd level last week and surpassed that of Saudi Arabia. In terms of recent energy commentary, the Saudi Oil Minister Al Falih says Saudi Arabia will invest for maximum oil output capacity and thus shows no signing of caving to the ongoing surge in US production. In metals markets, spot gold is modestly firmer, tracking fluctuations in the USD, while Copper saw its largest jump since October during Asia-Pac trade as shorts were covered ahead of the Lunar New Year and Dalian Iron Ore printed 3-week highs. US API Weekly Crude Stocks (Feb 9) 3.947M vs. Exp. 2.800M (Prev. -1.05M). CME raised crude oil future margins to USD 2100 from 1950 per contract for next month. Saudi Oil Minister Al Falih stated that Saudi Arabia will invest for maximum oil output capacity. (Newswires) As a guide, maximum sustainable oil capacity is 12.5mln bpd. Saudi Oil exports will be kept below 7mln bpd in March despite maintenance shutdown of Samref Refinery, while Aramco oil production will be 100K bpd below February levels; according to Saudi Oil Minister Looking at the day ahead, the key focus is clearly the January CPI report in the US, while January retail sales will also be released alongside it. December business inventories is the other data release due in the US while in Europe we’ll get Q4 GDP in Germany (second estimate) and the final January CPI revisions, along with Q4 GDP for the Euro area (second estimate). Away from data the Bundesbank’s Weidmann is due to speak in the morning, followed by the ECB’s Mersch. German Chancellor Merkel is also due to speak at a CDU event. CISCO, and Credit Agricole will report earnings US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.7% 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3% US CPI YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.1%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 1.7%, prior 1.8% 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%; Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4% Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%; Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3% 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.67%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.4% 10am: Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4% * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Will today provide a Valentine’s Day heartbreak for markets or will we feel the warm fuzzy embrace of a soft US CPI print that reminds people of the halcyon days of 2017? This really is going to be the main focal point every month this year we think. We are torn here at DB as 2018 has long been targeted by us as the year of the inflation comeback,  however there are reasons why today’s number may not see this materialise yet. If it doesn’t we’d still be confident that the year will be marked by higher inflation than expected though. The official house forecast is for a slightly softer core inflation print for January (0.16% m/m), which would lower the year-over-year rate by one-tenth to 1.7%, due to the negative base effect from a strong print in January 2017. Nevertheless the 6-month annualised growth rate for core CPI would rise further to 2.2% under DB’s forecast. What adds to the uncertainty about today’s print is that the BLS have just updated their seasonal adjustments which may iron out what has been a consistent beat in recent years for January’s print. The new seasonal factors imply that January CPI will be 4 bps lower than it would have been under the previous seasonal assumptions and could easily be the difference between it rounding up or down a tenth. Our economists note that this risk may not be fully reflected in consensus expectations, which may have been submitted prior to the release of these factors. Staying with CPI, Craig and I put a short "Macro Bites" out this morning which follows on from our economists' work comparing the 1960s to the current decade. Their work looks at factors leading to a sudden breakout in inflation in the former period and how there are similarities to today. We show how various asset prices behaved pre and post the inflation surge in 1966 and compare it to today. As England football fans let’s hope the economic similarities aren't the only ones in 2018. Markets are again quiet leading into today's number. It's almost as if last week didn't happen. However the fact that the VIX and VStoxx remain at 24.97 (-2.5%) and 25.95 (-7.9%) respectively reminds us of the shock. In equities, European markets were broadly lower, partly reversing Monday’s gains with the Stoxx (-0.63%), DAX (-0.70%) and FTSE (-0.13%) all down modestly. The S&P initially traded c0.7% lower, but recovered throughout the day to be +0.26% higher with modest gains from the real estate, financials and discretionary consumer sectors. The Dow (+0.16%) and Nasdaq (+0.45%) also advanced modestly. Staying in the US, in the prepared remarks at his ceremonial swearing in, the new Fed Chair Powell reiterated that “we are in the process of gradually normalising both interest rate policy and our balance sheet with a view to extending the recovery…” Elsewhere, he noted that “we will remain alert to any developing risks to financial stability”, which to us sounds all very comforting, but imagine the potential carnage had he suggested that the Fed ‘won't’ be paying any attention to risks to financial stability. Finally, he indicated the “financial system is incomparably stronger and safer, with much higher capital and liquidity” and that “we will also preserve the essential gains in financial regulation while seeking to ensure that our policies are as efficient as possible”. Following on, the WSJ noted unnamed sources suggesting the Fed’s Mester impressed the selection team and that the White House is considering her for the Vice Fed Chair role, although also conceded there was currently no front runner for the job. Earlier on, Ms Mester reiterated her views that tax cuts could add 0.25%-0.5% of extra economic growth over this year and next, but given what she has seen so far, there could be “salient upside risks to the forecasts”. On rates, she reiterated that “if economic conditions evolve as expected, we’ll need to make some further increases in rates this year and next, at a pace similar to last year” when the Fed raised rates three times. This morning in Asia, markets are mixed. The Hang Seng (+1.25%), Kopsi (+0.93%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.51%) are all up while Nikkei (-0.46%) is down modestly as we type. The latter partly impacted by the stronger YEN as it’s up c0.8% this morning back to mid-November 16 levels. Datawise, Japan’s 4Q GDP was below market and the lowest in two years at 0.5% annualised (vs 1% expected), with both private consumption and business spending lower than forecasts. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. In government bonds, slight risk aversion seemed to help core bonds with 10yr UST and Bunds yields down 2.9bp and 0.7bp respectively while Gilts rose 1.7bp following theb eat on CPI. Elsewhere, peripherals yields rose 4-6bp with losses led by Portugal. Turning to currencies, the US dollar  index retreated for the second straight day (-0.56%), while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.49% and 0.40% respectively. In commodities, WTI oil dipped 0.17% while precious metals strengthened c0.4% (Gold +0.52%; Silver +0.21%). Other base metals broadly rebounded as the dollar weakened (Copper 1.37%; Zinc +1.96%; Aluminium -0.2%). In Germany, the potential for a new grand coalition government seems to have increased. Overnight, the SPD has elected a new party leader Andrea Nahles. She noted “I’ll lobby in favour of entering into a grand coalition” with Ms Mekel’s bloc and that “….I’m going to put everything I have into getting a successful outcome”. Looking ahead, the earlier agreement between Ms Merkel and the SPD needs to be approved by the c460,000 SPD members, which is expected to wrap up in early March. Elsewhere, the UK PM May will meet with Ms Merkel this Friday at Berlin to discuss Brexit with a press briefing afterwards. In the US, after President Trump call for a “reciprocal tax” on imports against higher tariff countries earlier in the week as part of his 2019 budget speech, an unnamed senior White House official told Bloomberg that no proposals for such tax was in the works and the President may be simply reiterating his long held sentiments. Notably, President Trump has the power to impose such trade penalties on his own. Back in Europe, the ECB’s Draghi noted the blockchain technology is “quite promising” and the ECB is “very interested” in its potential usage. However, for now “it’s still not secure for central banking and we need to investigate it more”. Elsewhere, he reiterated that bitcoins are not considered as a proper currency. Finally, our European economics team have provided an update on what recent market developments means for the ECB. They note that their euro area financial conditions index is at the lowest level since mid-2014, just before the start of ECB unconventional monetary policy. However, they argue that strong economic momentum and the maturing economic cycle may add resilience in the face of tighter financial conditions, and they find that core inflation will continue to  satisfy the policy exit criteria if the current level of financial conditions is maintained. Overall, they note that a gradual tightening in financial conditions is the ECB’s objective. Refer to their note for more details. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January NFIB small business optimism index was above market at 106.9 (vs. 105.3) and slightly below the 34 year  high of 107.5 back in November. In the UK, the January CPI was also above market at -0.5% mom (vs. -0.6%) and core CPI at 2.7% yoy (vs 2.6% expected). Elsewhere, both the core PPI and RPI were slightly lower than expectations. The core PPI was 2.2% yoy (vs. 2.3%), while the RPI was -0.8% mom (vs. -0.7%) with annual growth of 4%. Finally, the December house price index rose 5.2% yoy (vs. 4.9% expected) driven by Scotland and Southwest England, while London was the weakest at +2.5%. In France, its 4Q wages index was slightly below  market at 0.1% qoq (vs. 0.2%) but still up 1.3% yoy. Looking at the day ahead, the key focus is clearly the January CPI report in the US, while January retail sales will also be released alongside it. December business inventories is the other data release due in the US while in Europe we’ll get Q4 GDP in Germany (second estimate) and the final January CPI revisions, along with Q4 GDP for the Euro area (second estimate). Away from data the Bundesbank’s Weidmann is due to speak in the morning, followed by the ECB’s Mersch. German Chancellor Merkel is also due to speak at a CDU event. CISCO, and Credit Agricole will report earnings

Выбор редакции
13 февраля, 07:28

Saxo Bank: Динамика цен на нефть меняет направление

На прошлой неделе все основные сырьевые товары - от золота и меди до сырой нефти - пострадали от длительной ликвидации, поскольку инвесторы были вынуждены сокращать свою зависимость от них на фоне изменений краткосрочных технических и фундаментальных ...

06 февраля, 15:26

Мировые рынки обрушились вслед за падением бирж США

Рекордный с 2011 года обвал на американском фондовом рынке вызвал цепную реакцию и перекинулся на биржи Азии и Европы, передает "Интерфакс". Инвесторов беспокоят признаки роста инфляции и процентных ставок, отмечают аналитики.Японский индекс Nikkei, отражающий стоимость 225 крупнейших компаний страны, на торгах во вторник падал максимально за 18 лет, теряя на минимуме 6,4%. В Гонконге акции упали на 4,84% по индексу Hang Seng. Китайский Shanghai Composite потерял 3,35%. Торги в Европе стартовали с падения панъевропейского индекса EuroStoxx600 на 2,8%, ставшего максимальным с июня 2016 года.Российский рынок акций открылся падением на 2% по индексу Московской биржи и 2,8% по индексу РТС, но к 12.07 по московскому времени сократил потери до 1,26% и 1,78% соответственно.Цены на нефть обновили минимумы с начала года: сорт Brent дешевел до 66,82 доллара за баррель, теряя 1,1% за день и 7,9% по сравнению с пиком двухнедельной давности.Накануне промышленный индекс Dow Jones в ходе торгов Нью-йоркской фондовой биржи опустился на 1175 пунктов, что стало рекордным падением за день в истории. В процентном отношении Dow Jones опустился на 4,6%, продолжая снижение, начавшееся в прошлую пятницу. Последний раз подобное снижение было зафиксировано в августе 2011 года. Индекс S&P 500 упал более чем на 4% в рамках торговой сессии, a Nasdaq - на 3,8%. На рынках идет полноценное бегство от риска, цитирует Finanz.ru главу стратегии Saxo Bank Питера Гарнри. Капитал уходит из акций и сырья и возвращается в "тихие гавани", констатирует эксперт.Дорожают гособлигации США (доходность 10-летних бумаг опустилась с 2,86% до 2,68% годовых), а также золото и валюты, за счет которых фондируются рисковые операции: накануне прибавил в цене доллар, во вторник в моменте на 0,8% дорожала японская иена, напоминает он.Обвал, скорее всего, будет краткосрочным, считает Гарнри, так как выросшая доходность 10-летних гособлигаций США все еще не достигла опасной зоны в 3,5-4%.Источником обвала стал стержневой рынок для глобальной финансовой системы - рынок госодолга США, отмечает управляющий директор Solaris Asset Management Тим Гриски. На ожиданиях ускорения инфляции и ужесточения политики ФРС доходности американский суверенных бумаг росли с сентября, а к концу прошлой недели достигли 2,9% по 10-летним бондам.Спред между доходностью индекса S&P500 (4,1%) и гособлигациями сузился до минимумов с 2008 года, что дало инвесторам повод вывести деньги с фондового рынка и перевложить их в американский госдолг, поясняет Гриски.(http://txt.newsru.com/fin...)

06 февраля, 15:26

Мировые рынки обрушились вслед за падением бирж США

Рекордный с 2011 года обвал на американском фондовом рынке вызвал цепную реакцию и перекинулся на биржи Азии и Европы, передает "Интерфакс". Инвесторов беспокоят признаки роста инфляции и процентных ставок, отмечают аналитики.Японский индекс Nikkei, отражающий стоимость 225 крупнейших компаний страны, на торгах во вторник падал максимально за 18 лет, теряя на минимуме 6,4%. В Гонконге акции упали на 4,84% по индексу Hang Seng. Китайский Shanghai Composite потерял 3,35%. Торги в Европе стартовали с падения панъевропейского индекса EuroStoxx600 на 2,8%, ставшего максимальным с июня 2016 года.Российский рынок акций открылся падением на 2% по индексу Московской биржи и 2,8% по индексу РТС, но к 12.07 по московскому времени сократил потери до 1,26% и 1,78% соответственно.Цены на нефть обновили минимумы с начала года: сорт Brent дешевел до 66,82 доллара за баррель, теряя 1,1% за день и 7,9% по сравнению с пиком двухнедельной давности.Накануне промышленный индекс Dow Jones в ходе торгов Нью-йоркской фондовой биржи опустился на 1175 пунктов, что стало рекордным падением за день в истории. В процентном отношении Dow Jones опустился на 4,6%, продолжая снижение, начавшееся в прошлую пятницу. Последний раз подобное снижение было зафиксировано в августе 2011 года. Индекс S&P 500 упал более чем на 4% в рамках торговой сессии, a Nasdaq - на 3,8%. На рынках идет полноценное бегство от риска, цитирует Finanz.ru главу стратегии Saxo Bank Питера Гарнри. Капитал уходит из акций и сырья и возвращается в "тихие гавани", констатирует эксперт.Дорожают гособлигации США (доходность 10-летних бумаг опустилась с 2,86% до 2,68% годовых), а также золото и валюты, за счет которых фондируются рисковые операции: накануне прибавил в цене доллар, во вторник в моменте на 0,8% дорожала японская иена, напоминает он.Обвал, скорее всего, будет краткосрочным, считает Гарнри, так как выросшая доходность 10-летних гособлигаций США все еще не достигла опасной зоны в 3,5-4%.Источником обвала стал стержневой рынок для глобальной финансовой системы - рынок госодолга США, отмечает управляющий директор Solaris Asset Management Тим Гриски. На ожиданиях ускорения инфляции и ужесточения политики ФРС доходности американский суверенных бумаг росли с сентября, а к концу прошлой недели достигли 2,9% по 10-летним бондам.Спред между доходностью индекса S&P500 (4,1%) и гособлигациями сузился до минимумов с 2008 года, что дало инвесторам повод вывести деньги с фондового рынка и перевложить их в американский госдолг, поясняет Гриски.(http://txt.newsru.com/fin...)