22 ноября, 15:01

Asian Stocks Smash Records; Dollar Slides As Crude Surges To July 2015 Highs

  • 0

Global shares hit another record high on Wednesday, propelled higher by what increasingly more call (ir)rational exuberance, and investors’ unflagging enthusiasm for tech stocks. That said, S&P futures are unchanged the morning before Thanksgiving (at least before the market open ramp), as are European stocks (Stoxx 600 is flat), despite the euphoria in the Asian session which saw the MSCI Asia Pac index hit a new all time high... ... as oil jumped, rising as much as $1.15 to $57.98/bbl, the highest since July 2015, following yesterday's API report which showed crude stocks fell another 6.4mmbbls and a Keystone pipeline outage shaprly tightened the market, while the dollar fell after Janet Yellen warned against raising rates too fast and the euro gained amid new moves to end Germany’s political impasse. Emerging markets too were on a roll, lifted by a weaker dollar and inflows into Asian assets, with little sign of spillover from Turkey where the lira plumbed a new record low. As SocGen previews today's action, "the US has durable goods orders, U-Mich consumer sentiment, jobless claims and FOMC Minutes out today, but none of these matters as much as Thanksgiving preparations." In other words, expect a much slower trading day, with the key event - the Fed minutes - delivered at 2pm to trading desks staffed by the sub-30 year old team. So as we prepare for even more all time highs amid the stock euphoria, the bond market has been showing fixed-income traders are more concerned that the U.S. economy may slow, with the 2s10s flattening further below 60 bps. Outgoing Fed chair Yellen warned Tuesday that tightening too quickly risked stranding inflation below the Fed’s 2 percent target, with investors awaiting the release of minutes from the last FOMC meeting for more clues about the policy path. As a result, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2%, hitting a one-month as cautious Yellen and curve flattening underpin selling momentum. As we noted earlier, Asian stocks hit new all time highs, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng jumping 1%, and rising above 30,000 for the first time in 10 years, as Hong Kong-listed Tencent leapt past Facebook this week to become the world's fifth-most valuable company. The mood was slightly less buoyant on European shares which opened flat to marginally firmer. Britain's benchmark rose 0.2 percent just before finance minister Philip Hammond presents a crucial budget to a country facing faltering economic growth. After yesterday's jump, European stocks struggled to follow the global rally that drove global benchmarks to record highs. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tracked sideways amid mixed fortunes for regional bourses. Earlier, we noted that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed above its 2007 peak, with shares up from Tokyo to Sydney, and the major American equity indexes reached all-time highs. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4%; South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4%; . The Hang Seng Index jumped 0.8% as Chinese financial shares climbed. The Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.6% . The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.6 percent. The MSCI Emerging Market Index extended a rally that took it to the highest in more than six years. The only fly in the Asian ointment was that China’s government bonds extended declines, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising 4 basis points to 4.03% to head for the highest close since 2014. How much longer before China finds itself in a funding squeeze and the recent euphoria crashes? “The earnings picture is dominant and that’s of course what has, and will continue, to move markets,” Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at Nuveen Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “Icing on the cake is the tax bill and that does boost earnings but a lot of people are already baking that into their assumption.” While there was little of note in global bond or equity markets, the biggest overnight story is the on-going strength of oil prices, jumping to more than 2 year highs as a result of the latest API inventory numbers and the Transcanada pipeline interruption, which helped NOK and CAD within G10 currencies.  Haven currencies also outperform on potential hedging amid a global stocks and oil rally; euro gains to stay below pivotal 55-DMA resistance amid chances that a German grand coalition may be achieved. “WTI is, for a change, in the driving seat,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “The spread is tightening and if we have a prolonged disruption then that will play its part in bringing down inventories further in the US.” On the US political front, US Senator Murkowski who is seen as a key moderate swing vote, is said to support repealing of ObamaCare's individual mandate. Earlier, Janet Yellen said the Fed must keep an open view and not be trapped by forecasts and said so far so good in terms of reducing the balance sheet. Yellen also commented that she is uncertain whether low inflation is transitory and is keeping an open view that it could be long-lasting. In Europe, Angela Merkel’s party is betting on a revived alliance with the Social Democrats to dodge the risk of new elections after coalition talks with two other parties broke down, Bloomberg reported although other news sources were skeptical. The goal is to avoid new elections and appeal to the need for German stability at a critical time for the country and the European Union "amid nationalist pressures and challenges posed by Brexit." The yield curve in Germany, the euro zone’s benchmark government bond issuer, flattened to its lowest in more than two months, catching up with the U.S. curve. According to Bloomberg, there was heavy bear flattening seen in early trade, with the 5Y sector underperforming with focus on Coeure’s speech yesterday which suggested moving forward guidance away from QE and onto rate hikes. USTs were dragged lower in tandem, however U.S. curve is marginally steeper. Morgan Stanley analysts said flattening curves were not cause for concern just yet. “Those looking at U.S. yield curve flatness as a potential bearish risk factor may be reminded that during the last 30 years, it has taken at least a year after the initial inversion before the recession set in,” they told clients. While most currencies did little overnight, the Turkish lira plunged to fresh record low. Fears are growing for Turkey where expectations are growing of emergency central bank action to counter the lira's slide to record lows. Will the next emerging market crisis start in Turkey, and if so when? Commodity markets too are benefited from the improved global growth outlook, with copper futures rising to two-week highs CMCU3. Oil prices too jumped, with Brent crude up almost $1 a barrel due to cuts in piped Canadian crude and expectations of a prolonged OPEC-led production cut. Bulletin headline Summary from RanSquawk European stocks are relatively directionless with the EuroStoxx 50 trading flat in what has been a light session of macro newsflow thus far Fixed income markets feel the squeeze in Europe amid a rapid turnaround with the front end of the curve giving way first Looking ahead, highlights include the UK budget, US durables, weekly jobs, DoEs, FOMC minutes and Baker Hughes Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,597.70 Stoxx Europe 600 little changed at 387.97 MSCI Asia up 0.6% to 172.62 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 568.44 Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,523.15 Topix up 0.3% to 1,777.08 Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 30,003.49 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,430.46 Sensex up 0.3% to 33,563.33 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 5,986.41 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,540.51 German 10Y yield rose 1bp to 0.36% Euro up 0.2% to $1.1763 Italian 10Y yield fell 3bps to 1.51% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1bp to 1.49% Brent futures up 0.7% to $63.03/bbl Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,284.35 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.78 Top Overnight News Fed officials have penciled in a gradual path for raising interest rates, but minutes of their last meeting may show increasing concern that the U.S. labor market is overheating Yellen however cautioned against raising interest rates too quickly and said it was dangerous to allow inflation to drift lower German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party is betting on a revived alliance with the Social Democrats to dodge the risk of new elections, according to people familiar with discussions in Berlin Uber Concealed Hack That Exposed 57 Million People’s Data For the U.K. government, which has already been weakened by infighting over Brexit and the hasty departure of two cabinet ministers, a badly-received Budget could put Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s political future in doubt; Hammond is constrained by reduced growth forecasts while he has been tasked to wow voters disillusioned by years of austerityRussian President Vladimir Putin meets his Turkish and Iranian counterparts, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Hassan Rouhani respectively, in Sochi for summit talks on Syria Tax bill update: bill contains future tax traps for multinationals German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party is betting on an alliance with the Social Democrats even as she publicly stated she’s open to another election Fed Debate Over Rate-Hike Pace in Focus Amid Strong Job Market Disney Animation Legend Lasseter Takes Leave Over Misconduct Nippon Paint Derails Akzo Bid for Axalta in Surprise Counter MiFID Myth Is That Rules Will Benefit Savers, Money Managers Say Asia equity markets were higher across the board as the regional bourses received a lift from their US counterparts, where tech outperformed and all major indices posted fresh record levels. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was led by energy names as crude prices extended on post-API gains after the latest inventory report showed the largest drawdown in 3 months, while Nikkei 225  (+0.5%) shrugged off a firmer currency and jumped aboard the tech-rally ahead of tomorrow’s market closure. Elsewhere, the Taiex (+0.4%) posted a 27-year high, while Hang Seng (+0.6%) rose to its highest in a decade above the 30,000 level after the PBoC upped its liquidity operations again, with blue-chip energy names also underpinned. Finally, 10yr JGBs  shrugged off the positive risk tone across the region and traded higher with mild support seen amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for nearly JPY 1tln of JGBs ranging from 1yr-10yr maturities. PBoC Governor Zhou said China should allow markets to play a decisive role in financial resource allocation, while he added they will reduce FX intervention and push ahead on CNY internationalization. PBoC injected CNY 100bln via 7-day reverse repos, CNY 80bln via 14-day reverse repos & CNY 10bln via 63-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6290 (Prev. 6.6356). Sources state that although the BoJ sees no immediate need to withdraw stimulus, officials are now more vocal on increasing costs of prolonged ultra-loose policy which could be a hint that the next move would be to cut back stimulus rather than widen it. Top Asian News Hedge Funds Are Demanding China Buyers Pay More in M&A Deals Indian Steel Tycoon Is Said to Hire StanChart Banker to Lead M&A Yuan Interbank Rates Jump in Hong Kong Amid Year-End Demand Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index Rises Above 30,000 to Decade- High Anbang Is Said to Be Required to Cut Bank Stakes Under New Rules Gulf Energy Prices $733 Million Thailand IPO at Top End of Range European stocks are relatively directionless with the EuroStoxx 50 trading flat. Newsflow has also been on the lighter side ahead of the UK Autumn Budget. Among the biggest movers is Thomas Cook, slipping some 13% after its earnings report. Although, profit figures had come in-line or ahead of analyst estimates, focus was on the tighter margins and aggressive  discounts, signalling potential warnings over heightened competition. On a sector basis, basic materials and oil names are faring better, with the latter bolstered by the rise in oil prices, in which WTI is now at fresh 2-yr highs. More colour and analysis around the rapid turnaround in bonds courtesy of market contacts, as we hear that the front end caved first. Dec 2 year contracts breached the pre-October ECB QE tapering low at 112.2400 (low now 112.200), while 5 year Bobls have been underperforming since the off on spreads and some positioning after Coeure hinted at more forward guidance before September 2018 to flag the end of bond buying. There is also talk about 10s vs 30s flattening trades, and block sales of Bunds in 10k lot clips, one at the 162.67 low, but set more than 10 ticks higher, and the other vs an option strategy (162.50/160.50 put spread against 163.50 calls). Some consolidation off the lows in Eurex contracts in wake of a strong 30 year German auction, with the retention at the lower end of norms, albeit not a big offering to place. Top European News Germany Heaps Pressure on SPD to Bow to Call for New Merkel Pact Riksbank Takes On Housing Correction Fears, Sees Krona Gains Poland’s ‘Wait-and-Sleep’ Stance on Rates Alarms Zubelewicz Oil Dealmakers Seek Boost in U.K. From North Sea Tax Change Denmark’s Nationalists Suffer Surprising Blow in Local Elections In currencies, the DXY dollar Index is back below 94.000 yet again on broad USD losses ahead of Thanksgiving, with comments from outgoing Fed Chair Yellen weighing as she expresses serious doubts about inflation reaching target due to factors that may not be transitory. The DXY is holding around 93.770, but in danger of revisiting recent multi-week lows under  93.500 if the Greenback succumbs to more selling pressure in holiday-thinned volumes. The EUR/USD has trimmed its early gains after initially rebounding strongly from sub-1.1720 lows as residual offers from 1.1780-1.1800 continue to obstruct re-tests of the highs above 1.1800. Option expiries could exert more direction influence as Thanksgiving approaches and nearest strikes to watch in decent size are at 1.1750-75 (1.2 bn) then 1.1800-30 (2.4 bn). Cable also firmer and just under 0.8900, with potential for volatility around the Frankfurt fix (385 mn expiry at the figure too). Yen was initially the firmest of the G10 vs the Dollar, with the pair chopping and changing above 112.00 (1.4bln expiry), and a market contact also noting selling in the GBP/JPY cross through 148.50 (program offers reportedly) and key chart support at 147.50. In commodities, brent and WTI crude futures are firmer this morning, with sentiment bolstered by the sizeable drawdown in last night’s API crude report (largest drawdown in 3-months). As such, WTI rose to a fresh 2-yr high, however did fail to push through USD 58. Elsewhere, gold prices are modestly higher amid the support from the softer greenback. US API weekly crude stocks (Nov 17) -6.356M (Prev. 6.513M). Looking at the day ahead, we will get the FOMC minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting, while in the UK the big focus will be Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s Budget statement in Parliament. The most significant release of note is the flash October durable and capital goods orders data in the US. The latest weekly initial jobless claims data is also due along with the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.1% 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 249,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.86m 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 2.0%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.7% Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 1.7%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 0.9% 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 52.1 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98, prior 97.8; Current Conditions, prior 113.6; Expectations, prior 87.6 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap The highlight today is likely to be the UK budget where I’ll find out how much more tax I’ll have to pay over the next 12 months and beyond. As our economists highlight, a stronger fiscal starting point over the last six months is likely to be wiped out by downward revisions to productivity from the OBR, leaving the chancellor slightly less space in meeting his fiscal mandate. Nevertheless, DB anticipate Hammond will spend at least some of what remains, in response to political pressure over austerity and in anticipation of slowing growth next year. See the full preview here. In terms of markets, can I be the first to declare the start of this year’s Santa Clause rally? Yesterday saw the S&P 500 (+0.65%) cross 2600 for the first time ever, before closing at a fresh record high just below that mark. In fact the DOW (+0.69%) and Nasdaq (+1.06%) were also at record highs. The one spoke in the wheel as far as I’m concerned is the continued flattening of the US yield curve. 2s10 closed at 58.4bps and below 60bps for the first time in a decade. We still get worried by a flat yield curve as we think it risks cutting off animal spirits. The flatter the yield, the less attractive longer-term investments/activity becomes. The opportunity cost of keeping money safe at the front end gets lower and the risk is economic participants/investors become more defensive. In more recent cycles (since the early 80s) we’ve needed it to invertfor it to be a precursor to a recession but virtually all recessions over the last 70 plus years have followed a flattening of the yield curve. In a low yield world markets may keep reaching for every last bit of carry as the curve flattens but the closer the yield curve gets to zero the more the risks build. Obviously the Fed have to be conscious of this in 2018. It’s difficult to plough through and raise rates if the back end doesn’t budge. Our base case is that it does as inflation increases but a risk is that long end rates get anchored at low levels by BoJ/ECB buying elsewhere and we could see an inverted curve if the Fed dots are accurate. So one to keep an eye on. Staying with the Fed, our economists put out a piece last night suggesting that in recent weeks, many Fed officials have raised the possibility of re-considering the Fed's current policy framework of targeting a 2% inflation rate. Today’s minutes could provide further indications that this is becoming a lively debate among Fed officials. Given the breadth and the increase in the intensity of this discussion, our guys think markets should take note and they go through the pros and cons of all the possible alternatives to the 2% inflation target. In Germany, the political gridlock continues but behind the scenes there has been more initiatives to avoid a new election with sources (per Bloomberg) claiming a grand coalition between Merkel’s party with the Social democrats may still be possible even though SPD’s leaders have been publicly against this. The German President Steinmeier has also met with the FDP and Greens party, asking them to consider re-joining the coalition talks with Chancellor Merkel. Elsewhere, the longest serving Finance minister Mr Schaeuble has urged German political parties to work together and start building a government, while the FDP leader Mr Lindner has noted “the experiment of a four-party coalition is unfortunately finished”. Across the pond, the US Senate Finance Committee has released the text of its draft tax bill yesterday, with Republican leaders expecting a full chamber vote on it, potentially as soon as next week on the 30th November. This morning in Asia, markets are trading higher again, with the MSCI Asia Pac. index c0.7pts away from its 29 year high. The Nikkei (+0.72%), Kospi (+0.31%) and ASX 200 (+0.54%) are all up modestly, while the Hang Seng (+0.90%) jumped above 30,000 to a fresh decade high as we type. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. As discussed earlier US bourses strengthened to record highs with little material new news flow, although trading volumes in the S&P were c15% below average. Within the S&P, all sectors excluding telco (-0.54%) were in the green, with gains led by tech (+1.19%) and heath care stocks. European markets were broadly higher, with the Stoxx 600 (+0.44%), DAX (+0.83%) and FTSE (+0.30%) all up modestly, while Spain’s IBEX fell 0.32%. The risk on bias was evident again with the VIX index down for the fourth consecutive day and now back below 10 (-8.64% to 9.73). Sovereign bond markets were slightly firmer with core bond yields down 1-3bp (UST 10y & Bunds -1.2bp; Gilts -1.8bp; OATs -2.6bp) while peripherals modestly outperformed (down c3bp). In currencies, the US dollar index dipped 0.13% while both the Euro and Sterling rose 0.08%. The Turkish Lira pared losses to be down 0.7% vs. the greenback (c14% down since September) after its central bank took steps to strengthen the currency by providing funding from its late liquidity window which will raise the weighted average cost of funding by 25bp. In commodities, WTI oil rose 0.83% yesterday and is trading c1.7% higher this morning as API data show crude stockpiles continuing to decline. Precious metal rebounded slightly (Gold +0.31%; Silver +0.37%) while most other base metals advanced (Copper +1.39%; Zinc +2.23%) but aluminium fell 0.83%. In Europe the ECB’s Coeure reiterated his expectations that interest rate guidance rather than QE bond purchase will “gain importance over time”, he noted “I expect the link (between inflation and QE) to change when the governing council is sufficiently confident that net asset purchases are less needed” to support inflation and that “I expect it will come at some point between now and September 2018”. Elsewhere, when asked if QE should end in September, he noted “for me, it’s the logical conclusion”, although he reiterated that he is part of the large majority of council members that believe a substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed. In the UK, Brexit Secretary Davis pushed back on EU negotiator Barnier’s earlier claims for an unique solution on the Irish border, Mr Davis noted “we must start talking about our future (trade) relationships…the Northern Ireland border cannot be fully addressed if we’re not taking into account the shape of our future…with the EU”. We wait and see if a breakthrough occurs before the EU summit on 14th December but it’s increasingly seems likely that the UK will up its settlement offer soon. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the October Chicago Fed national activity index was materially above expectations at 0.65 (vs. 0.20) – the highest since January 2012, with the strength likely aided by the post storm rebuild efforts. The existing home sales also beat at 5.48m (vs. 5.40m expected) – a four month high. Sales grew 2% mom, with modest growth seen across all four regions, although annual growth was still down 0.9% yoy. In the UK, both the October underlying private sector net borrowing (8.0bln vs. 7.1bln expected) and public sector net borrowing (7.5bln vs. 6.5bln expected) was modestly higher than expectations. Elsewhere, the CBI’s Industrial trends survey posted a 19pt mom rebound in the new orders index to +17 in November – the strongest reading since 1988. The export orders index also rose to its highest level since 1995. Looking at the day ahead, the big focus in the UK will be Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond’s Budget statement in Parliament, due at midday. In the evening we will also receive the FOMC minutes from the latest monetary policy meeting. Datawise, the most significant release of note is the flash October durable and capital goods orders data in the US. The latest weekly initial jobless claims data is also due along with the final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading.

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
16 ноября, 18:58

Guns v money: Fuelled by Middle East tension, the oil market has got ahead of itself

Print section Print Rubric:  Fuelled by Middle East tension, the oil market has got ahead of itself Print Headline:  Guns v money Print Fly Title:  Oil UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  The army sidelines Robert Mugabe, Africa’s great dictator Fly Title:  Guns v money Main image:  20171118_FNP508.jpg ONLY one thing spooks the oil market as much as hot-headed despots in the Middle East, and that is hot-headed hedge-fund managers. For the second time this year, record speculative bets on rising oil prices in American and European futures have made the market vulnerable to a sell-off. “You don’t want to be the last man standing,” says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank. On November 15th, the widely traded Brent crude futures benchmark, which had hit a two-year high of $64 a barrel on November 7th, fell below $62. America’s West Texas Intermediate also fell. The ...

Выбор редакции
13 ноября, 18:13

Нефтяной рынок. Пять недель роста

  • 0

Энергетика привлекает к себе повышенный интерес со стороны инвесторов. Индекс товаров энергетического сектора агентства Bloomberg достиг максимального за 10 месяцев значения. В условиях приближающейся зимы цены на природный газ наконец-то вышли из многомесячного периода стагнации, а сырая нефть дорожает вот уже пятую неделю подряд на фоне возросших геополитических рисков. Даже цены на уран подскочили после […]

Выбор редакции
10 ноября, 15:12

"This Looks More Frightening": Global Stock, Bond Selloff Accelerates Amid Risk-Parity Rumblings

Yesterday's Japan flash-crash inspired selling continues for a second day, with global equities - and bonds - sliding early Friday on concerns U.S. tax reform - and corporate tax cuts - will be delayed after Senate Republicans unveiled a plan that differed significantly from the House of Representatives’ version. After suffering their biggest plunge in 4 months on Thursday, European stocks failed to find a bid along with Asian stocks, while U.S. index futures pointed to a lower open (ES -0.5%, or -10), the Nikkei 225 ended 0.8% lower, Treasuries yields are up 1-4bps across the curve in steepening fashion, with the 10y at 2.370%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined for a third day. The VIX has jumped 6% this morning trading through 11 while WTI crude oil is little changed trading north of $57/bbl. And here is one for the streak watchers: on Thursday the global MSCI index failed by one day to post its longest winning streak since 2003 as it fell 0.4% following 10 days straight of gains. The MSCI world index gained more than 18% so far this year and some investors believe a pullback is due. “I think there’s a feeling out there that there’s a long awaited correction, and no one wants to be caught by surprise,” said Emmanuel Cau, global equity strategist at JP Morgan.  “When the market is down a bit people tend to extrapolate. But I think it’s simply a bit of profit taking and digesting from a very strong September and October.” Europe's benchmark Stoxx 600 reversed an early rebound, falling 0.2% on high volume;  It is on track for its worst week in three months, if it falls on Friday , its fourth drop in row. Carmakers and retailers led the index to its biggest two-day drop since August as third-quarter earnings season continues, with aerospace-electronics maker Leonardo SpA crashing 20% after cutting sales forecasts. In Asia it was more of the same, with stocks declining after a rally that saw them touch a record high less than 48 hours earlier, as shares in Japan extended losses following abrupt swings on Thursday. Asian stocks fell, tracking weakness in U.S. equities after the U.S. Senate released a tax plan that would delay cuts to the corporate rate until 2019, defying President Donald Trump. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 171.18, trimming its weekly advance to 0.8%; The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index fell 0.3%, while Japan's Nikkei lost 0.8%, slipping off Thursday's 21-year high after a 16% rally in the past two months. The decline was led by Japanese equities, which extended a loss Thursday on the heels of the largest one-day swing in a year. The Asian benchmark gauge has risen for six straight weeks, posting gains in 16 of the past 18 weeks. Thursday’s close was less than half a point from a record. “Investors are unwinding expectations on Trump’s ambitious tax reform,” Margaret Yang, a Singapore-based strategist at CMC, said by phone. “Delay in tax cuts is the perfect excuse to book profits, but long-term fundamentals remain positive for Asian equities.” While most Asian markets fell, Hong Kong stocks traded higher, and Shanghai’s benchmark index headed for its best week since August, led by brokerages. Meanwhile, in a move that smacks of a risk-parity deleveraging unwind, instead of dipping - as a risk-haven - 10Y TSY yields rose a third day, and core European bond yields followed suit not to mention the ongoing rout in junk bonds. Indeed, as the Stoxx 600 dropped, Germany leads the bond market lower, sending 10-year Bund yield to a two-week high. Treasuries decline in tandem with the long-end underperforming and finally steepening the 5s30s curve from the narrowest level in a decade. “The world looks, if anything, more frightening given declines in both bonds and stocks,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, Denmark, said by email. “Higher lows and lower highs following the U.S. presidential election a year ago shows a market in need of a proper spark. So far that spark remains illusive.” In macro, majors FX pairs were trapped in familiar ranges, while bonds stole the spotlight yet again as yields ticked up steadily across traders’ screens; the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index attempted a feeble recovery after short-term accounts took profit on shorts, but the gains lacked conviction; the pound flapped about, seeking a decisive direction, ahead of a key Brexit briefing; Treasury 10-year yields were inching closer toward the key 2.40% level. WTI crude was steady above $57 a barrel. The catalyst for the move was yesterday's tax reform fireworks, where Republican senators said they wanted to slash the corporate tax rate in 2019, later than the House’s proposed schedule of 2018, complicating a push for the biggest overhaul of U.S. tax law since the 1980s. The House was set to vote on its measure next week. But the Senate’s timetable was less clear. “Things look fluid, including on when the tax cut deal will be reached,” said Hirokazu Kabeya, chief global strategist at Daiwa Securities.  “I would say a compromise will be reached ...But if they indeed decide to delay the tax cut by a year, there is likely to be some disappointment.” In FX, the euro declined 0.1% to 1.1641, while sterling was 0.1% higher  at 1.3162. In rates, the 10y TSY rose to 2.3753% , while Bund yields, as noted above, climbed to their highest level in over a week as euro zone bonds sold off across the board for a second consecutive day. The yield on Germany’s 10-year bund hit 0.40% for the first time since Oct. 27. Among commodities, oil prices steadied on expectations of supply cuts by major exporters as well as continuing concern about political developments in Saudi Arabia. A spokesman for Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry said the kingdom planned to cut crude exports by 120,000 barrels per day in December from November. Brent crude was at $64.01 per barrel, close to the 2-year high of $64.65 reached earlier this week. WTI traded at $57.17, also just shy of this week’s more than two-year high of $57.69. Concerns about the stability of Saudi Arabia, sparked after the purge of 11 princes and arrests of dozen other influential figures since last week, are intensifying. Sources told Reuters that Lebanon believes the country’s former prime minister, Saad al-Hariri, was being held in Saudi Arabia, although Saudi Arabia denied reports he was under house arrest. Saudi Arabia accused Beirut earlier this week of declaring war against the kingdom. Bulletin Headline Summary from Ransquawk Subdued Trade across European equities GBP uncertainty remerges, as Brexit concerns grow Looking ahead, highlights include Uni. Of Michigan and Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,572.70 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 389.09 MSCI Asia down 0.4% to 171.18 MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.3% to 559.89 Nikkei down 0.8% to 22,681.42 Topix down 0.7% to 1,800.44 Hang Seng Index down 0.05% to 29,120.92 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3,432.67 Sensex down 0.3% to 33,160.16 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,029.37 Kospi down 0.3% to 2,542.95 German 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 0.386% Euro up 0.04% to $1.1647 Italian 10Y yield rose 6.8 bps to 1.55% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.525% Brent futures up 0.4% to $64.20/bbl Gold spot down 0.02% to $1,284.81 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.04% to 94.48 Top Overnight News China took a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial system, saying it will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and insurers Senate Republicans released their vision for a tax-cut plan Thursday that would cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent, with a one-year delay to 2019, as Congress moves quickly to fulfill one of the GOP’s biggest and most long-awaited goals President Donald Trump will not meet formally with Russian President Vladimir Putin at an Asia- Pacific summit in Vietnam this week due to a scheduling conflict, the White House said Friday, amid U.S. concerns that the meeting wouldn’t create genuine progress on key issues Alibaba is expected to announce a USD bond mandate next week and price the transaction before Nov. 23, Reuters’s IFR says As U.S. markets swim in sea of red, trading in the largest high-yield exchange-traded funds has skyrocketed to dizzying levels San Francisco Fed President John Williams expects a December hike and three more in 2018 and that U.S. interest rate will return to “a normal level” of about 2.5%, BBC reports;He expects incoming Fed chair Powell to continue “making sure that we have a strong consensus around our policy decisions and strategy” Australia’s central bank used its quarterly statement on monetary policy to flesh out its consistent recent view of accelerating growth and sluggish inflation, suggesting interest rates will stay at a record-low 1.5% Oil heads for best weekly run in a year as political upheaval in Saudi Arabia roils markets China Big Bang Moment Opens Banks, Funds to Foreign Control Pacific Nations Scramble to Save Trade Pact After Trump Exit China Says Foreign Firms Won’t Be Forced to Turn Over Technology StanChart Unit Offers to Buy Stake in Singapore Crane Firm World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Calls for Better FX Market Practices Drahi Takes Back Control of Altice as CEO Quits Amid Debt Woes ECB Warns of Complacency Risks in Surging Euro-Area Economy GOP’s Dueling Tax Overhauls Struggle to Pass a Key Red Ink Test Asian equities are set to close out the week in the red with risk sentiment dented by US tax doubts. Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) notably underperforms, extending on the losses seen from yesterday’s dramatic swing which had come ahead of the closely watch options settlement price, which settled at 22,531. Toshiba shares fell as much as 8% following reports that they are looking to raise around JPY 600bln worth of capital. ASX 200 (-0.3%) slightly pressured, however the 6000 level has been holding, while the biggest weight has come from mining stocks. Chinese markets pared initial declines following reports that China are to relax the limit on foreign ownership. JGBs are a touch weaker with the curve showing a flattening bias. The long end-outperforming with the 40-yr yield lower by 1.6bps. Top Asian News Singapore’s Stocks Haven’t Lured This Much Cash in a Decade Noble Group Needs More Funds as Default Risk Persists, S&P Warns Kobe Steel Blames Lax Controls, Focus on Profits for Scandal State Bank of India Surges as Margins, Bad-Loan Ratio Improve Brewer Sabeco to Sell Stake of at Least $2.9 Billion in 2017 China Fintech IPO Fever Wanes as Regulators Weigh Crackdown Jewelers Say Haven’t Smiled in the Year Since India Cash Ban Once again, European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.1%) have seen little in the way of noteworthy price action in what has been a week void of substantial European-specific macro events. In terms of sector-wide moves, financial names were granted some modest support at the open in the wake of earnings from Allianz (+1.2%) with material names also higher given the latest trading update from steel heavy-weight ArcelorMittal. To the downside, utility names in the UK have seen some pressure in the wake of reports that Ofgem is to stop gas and electricity suppliers from charging as much as GBP 900 when they forcibly install pre-payment meters in households struggling to pay bills. Bonds have continued to retreat, initially in corrective trade, but then as more sell-stops were triggered on a break of technical support levels. However, some respite amidst dip-buying has helped Bunds and Gilts  recoup losses. 10 year benchmark yields have flirted with sensitive if not particularly key cash markers – UK through 1.25% and up to 1.30%, Germany resisting 0.4%. The overall trend remains bearish and curves are retracing broad flattening patterns in thinner trading conditions. Top European News Catalan Speaker’s Bail Set as Rajoy Seeks Release of Separatists Germany Could Escape Carbon Hole at Home by Investing Abroad U.K. Industrial Output Jumps, Construction Shrinks in September Richemont Finalizes Management Revamp by Promoting Lambert Telecom Italia Earnings Decline Amid Tough Wireless Competition In FX, GBP has been a key focus for FX markets once again with a slew of potentially negative Brexit reports overnight, including a potential curve ball from Ireland regarding the Northern Ireland border as well as pressure from UK and European business bodies. It was also reported, that May could up her Brexit bill offer, which would be an increased cost to the UK but potentially a positive step in terms of getting the ball rolling in negotiations. Thereafter, GBP then took the lead from the main UK data releases of the week which saw manufacturing and industrial numbers exceed expectations and sent GBP/USD back into positive territory before later paring a bulk of the move. Elsewhere, AUD remains under pressure after the RBA’s SOMP (Statement On Monetary Policy) saw the central bank cut their inflation outlook, while they also saw underlying inflation not reaching their 2% target until 2019. USD remains steady after seeing a bid early doors which saw the DXY bounce off worse levels ahead of 94.40 (Last week’s low). The RBA's Quarterly Statement On Monetary Policy (SOMP) lowered inflation forecasts, while underlying inflation is not expected to reach 2% until 2019. i) Forecasts CPI at 2% to June 2018, then 2.25% to December 2019. ii) Forecasts GDP 2.5% to December 2017 and 3.25% for December 2018/19. iii) Further rise in AUD would slow pick-up in economic growth and inflation. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures continue to remain firm and are on course to log their fifth straight week of gains, on hopes of supply cuts by major exporters as well as continuing concern about political developments in Saudi Arabia. This morning has also seen comments from the UAE energy minister who stated that he is optimistic about 2018 and does not expect any big challenges against OPEC's decision to extend the output cut deal. Dalian iron ore futures slipped up for a third session overnight amid concerns over a reduction in consumption as Chinese producers slash production over winter. Analysts also note that iron ore prices could drift even lower over the coming months as cuts to steel output and other industrial activity could last until mid-March. Looking at the day ahead, a fairly quiet end to the week with September industrial production data in France and the flash November University of Michigan consumer sentiment print and October monthly budget statement in the US due. With it being Veterans Day in the US, bond markets will be closed however stock markets remain open. The ECB’s Mersch is slated to make comments while President Trump will take part in the APEC summit US Event Calendar: 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 100.9, prior 100.7; Current Conditions, est. 116.3, prior 116.5; Expectations, est. 91, prior 90.5 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap In a low vol world, yesterday was fascinating and a small shock to the system. Equities, bonds and spreads were all weaker which can happen when everything is expensive but perhaps markets had given up on the short-term possibility of it. Since the ECB’s dovish taper two weeks ago, the general perception was that one of the last chances to see vol in 2017 outside of the US tax plan had gone. As such we’ve seen carry trades get yet another lease of life with the assumption that they’ll be low risk into year end. However this week has seen some flies in the ointment. The US YC had hit the flattest for 10 years, there has been more widespread expectation that US tax reform may get pushed back, the Saudi anti-corruption drive has unsettled some, the oil price rise is starting to influence carry expectations, EMFX has been  weak, a couple of high profile US HY ETFs have fallen to 8-months lows with heavy volumes yesterday, Japanese equities saw a 3.6% swing yesterday (largest for a year) and European bond yields rose unexpectedly. The Japan swing was the talk of the town yesterday with lots happening late in the session after we went to print. Some suggested it was due to profit taking after a strong run to a 25 year high, others pointed to position adjustments ahead of Friday’s special quotation of some futures and options. This morning in Asia, markets have followed the negative leads from US and are trading lower. The Nikkei is down -0.85%, led by losses from telco and utilities stocks but is trading close to where it opened so no real acceleration of selling has occurred so far. Elsewhere, the Kospi (-0.35%) and ASX 200 (-0.3%) are down slightly while Hang Seng is up 0.11% as we type. Chinese stocks are slightly higher and this morning, China’s Vice Finance minister Zhu has confirmed that foreign firms will be allowed to own controlling stakes (up to 51%) in local Chinese securities joint ventures. This is another step towards liberalisation of the economy. Before all this late in the US session last night, the Senate has released their version of the draft tax bill which does not stray too much from prior press reports but is still quite different to the House’s bill. In the details, the plansincluded: i) corporate tax cuts to 20% delayed by one year (vs. Jan. 2018 as per the House’s tax bill), ii) existing mortgage interest deduction for home purchases up to $1m will be retained (vs. a cut to $0.5m) , iii) state and local tax deductions for individuals will be entirely repealed (vs. mostly repealed), iv) seven individual tax brackets will be retained with the top tax bracket reduced 0.9ppt to 38.5% (vs. consolidate to 4 tax brackets and unchanged top tax rate of 39.6%), while v) the standard deductions for individuals ($12k and $24k couples) are the same. Elsewhere, in the mark up of the House tax bill, the House Ways Committee is reportedly considering lifting the one-time tax rate on US companies’ accumulated offshore earnings, from 12% to 14% if the income was held as cash (vs. 10% as per the Senate tax plan). Looking ahead, the two versions of the tax bill will be further debated, negotiated and then somehow reconciled before final voting, which was expected to be before Thanksgivings (23 November). The market is having a lot of doubts about this timetable. Over in government bonds, UST 10y yields rose modestly (+0.7bp) yesterday before moving slightly higher this morning after the Senate tax plans were formally released. However, European bonds experienced a mini-sell off from nowhere yesterday with core 10y yields up 4-5bp (Bunds +5bp; OATs +5.3bp; Gilts +3.7bp) – the biggest moves in three weeks. Peripherals also rose 4-7bp, led by Italian bonds. We are scratching our heads a little on this, perhaps it was driven by a combination of the following; marginally higher inflation forecasts by the European Commission, more hawkish ECB talk and profit taking after the stronger bonds performance post the October ECB meeting. Following on from this, the European Commission raised its GDP and inflation forecasts for the Euro area yesterday. GDP growth in 2017 is now expected to be the highest in a decade at 2.2% (+0.5ppt) and 2.1% (+0.3ppt) in  2018, with Germany and Spain expected to perform strongly, while forecasts for the UK have been lowered to 1.3% next year (vs. DB estimate of 1%). Elsewhere, the inflation forecasts for 2018 was marginally increased (+0.1ppt) to 1.4% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. The Bank of France Governor Villeroy noted “Euro area growth will be sustained in the next two years thanks to strong investment and thanks to increased convergence among countries”. Moving onto central bankers’ commentaries. ECB’s Governing council member Lane sounded a bit hawkish, noting “there are some signs that inflation is snapping back” and that “inflation does not have to reach our goal before we discuss changing our policy”. Further “if we have enough signals, we can get active and move on” as “our monetary policy does not always have to follow such a gradual and incremental approach”. On QE tapering, he noted that as we approach the time when net bond purchases end, we will “develop a clearer communication strategy on what ECB means by well past” in its guidance on interest rates. Elsewhere, commentary by others on the economy were fairly upbeat too. ECB’s executive board member Coeure noted “we’re now at a stage in the economic cycle where the recovery is strong….in terms of robustness and balance….probably (the strongest) in almost 20 years”. The ECB VP Constancio also noted ‘we’re encouraged by the way the economy continues to grow” and that “all the new indicators…mostly so far…indicate that growth could be indeed stronger”. On QE, he noted we should not expect “very dramatic change or development” on CSPP size in any case. Moving to geopolitics, the official Saudi Press Agency has advised its nationals to leave Lebanon due to the “situation” without elaborating more. With the ongoing tensions regarding Iran and Saudi’s own internal anti-corruption drive heating up, we watch and see how this situation will evolve. Now recapping the rest of market performance from yesterday. US bourses pared back early losses to close modestly weaker, in part following the Senate tax plan. The S&P traded down around -1% intraday before ending the day -0.38%. The Dow (-0.43%) and Nasdaq (-0.58%) also fell modestly. Within the S&P, losses were led by the industrials (-1.28%) and materials sector, with partial offset from energy and telco stocks. European market were all lower, with the Stoxx 600 (-1.11%) and DAX (-1.49%) down the most since 21st July, with losses driven by industrials and tech stocks. The FTSE was actually the relative outperformer, only down 0.61%. After five consecutive days of

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
08 ноября, 09:00

Золото и нефть: геополитическая напряженность и стихийные бедствия способствуют росту на сырьевых рынках

Стремительно ухудшающиеся отношения между Северной Кореей и остальным миром оказывают ощутимое влияние на все сферы экономики, включая сырьевые рынки. Геополитическая нестабильность служит стимулом для роста цен на драгоценные металлы, а подорожавшая нефть стала следствием пронесшегося в США урагана Харви. Сырьевые рынки значительно улучшили показатели в III квартале 2017 года. Доллар продолжил свое падение, что в целом благотворно сказалось на динамике большинства сегментов сырьевых рынков. Нефть восстановила позиции под влиянием перебоев в производстве и снабжении в связи с погодой, а также наконец-то возымевших действие усилий ОПЕК и других добывающих стран по ограничению добычи, что положительно повлияло на баланс спроса и предложения. Однако положительная ценовая динамика на сырьевом рынке вряд ли сохранится в IV квартале 2017 года, потому что доллар может взять паузу в своем падении, а фундаментальные факторы сейчас не настолько сильны, чтобы поддержать рост цен на нефть. Угрозу для мировой экономики по-прежнему представляют риски, связанные с геополитической обстановкой, потому что они могут повлиять на предложение и спрос на основные сырьевые товары. В стремлении добиться для американских производителей справедливых условий торговли президент Дональд Трамп может задействовать политические механизмы по ее защите, что почти наверняка приведет к нескольким торговым войнам. Отношения между Северной Кореей и остальным миром ухудшаются на глазах, что является фактором нарастающей опасности. Кроме того, невозможно игнорировать назревающий конфликт на Ближнем Востоке. Крайне рискованная геополитическая обстановка наряду с нерациональным поведением и комментариями президента США в III квартале 2017 года оказывала поддержку сегментам драгоценных металлов и прежде всего золоту, так как инвесторы активно защищали свои инвестиции от растущих рисков. Благодаря такой поддержке, а также падающему курсу доллара, прогнозам ставок, инфляции и роста экономики цены в этом секторе продолжат повышаться до конца года. Мы сохраняем наш прогноз по золоту на конец года на уровне $1325 за унцию, оставляя его неизменным с декабря 2016 года, и на данном этапе не видим веских оснований для пересмотра. Золото (драгоценные металлы) Факторы роста цен Факторы снижения цен В цены на рынке заложены завышенные показатели роста экономики США Федеральный комитет открытого рынка (Federal Open Market Committee – FOMC) начнет ужесточать условия и переключится с инфляции на контроль над ценами «дорогих» активов Ошибочная оценка финансовых рисков; неопределенность вокруг позиции центральных банков и геополитической обстановки растет Инициативы президента Трампа по сокращению налогов и росту расходов на инфраструктуру и, как следствие, укрепление доллара и повышение ставок доходности по облигациям Стремление инвесторов к диверсификации и хеджированию против событий типа «черный лебедь» на фондовом рынке после многомесячного роста Помимо курса доллара и ставок доходности, скорректированных на инфляцию, на цену золота также влияют общий ценовой тренд на сырьевом рынке и уровень уверенности в политической и финансовой системе. В целом мы считаем, что упомянутые факторы продолжат действовать и поддерживать драгоценные металлы с наступлением 2018 года. Рынок нефти может завершить 2017 год с лучшим результатом с тех пор, как на фоне избытка предложения в 2014 году на нем произошел спад. В первом полугодии подъем производства в Ливии и Нигерии, а также среди американских компаний, разрабатывающих сланцевые месторождения, отрицательно сказался на стоимости нефти. Низкие цены, вероятно, отразились на предложении этого энергоносителя в США сильнее, чем ожидалось. Ливии и Нигерии после непродолжительного роста так и не удалось существенно нарастить объемы добычи. Сырая нефть Факторы роста цен Факторы снижения цен ОПЕК может поддержать цены, если продлит срок действия соглашения о сокращении добычи после марта 2018 года Несоблюдение взятых на себя обязательств странами ОПЕК и другими добывающими странами Рост геополитической нестабильности в ключевых странах-экспортерах (Ливия, Ирак, Венесуэла) Увеличение объемов добычи в Нигерии, Ливии и особенно в США Для того чтобы остановить негативное воздействие на предложение, нефть должна стоить $50-60 за баррель Остановка роста спроса в связи с замедлением мировой экономики, в первую очередь в Соединенных Штатах и Китае Дальнейшее снижение курса доллара Увеличение предложения от поставщиков, не входящих в ОПЕК, а именно Канады, Бразилии и Казахстана Предпринятые в 2017 году усилия ОПЕК и других добывающих стран по ограничению производства нефти наконец возымели действие, и избыток мирового предложения сырой нефти начал снижаться. Во время бушевавшего на побережье Мексиканского залива в штате Техас урагана Харви запасы топлива в США существенно сократились, и это обстоятельство способствовало росту доходов нефтеперерабатывающих предприятий и поддержало спрос на нефть именно в тот период, когда на рынке обычно наблюдается сезонный спад. В течение месяца после стихийного бедствия запасы бензина и дизельного топлива в США сократились на 24 млн баррелей. Тогда как, согласно среднему за пять лет показателю, обычно в этот период наблюдался их прирост на 2,5 млн баррелей. НПЗ отложили профилактические и ремонтные работы, чтобы воспользоваться спросом, резко выросшим после урагана Харви. ОПЕК и другие добывающие страны будут рады тому, что ценовая разница между сортами нефти WTI и Brent увеличилась и на момент написания этой статьи составляет около $6 за баррель. Возвращение рынка Brent в состояние бэквардации не только повышает доходность тех производителей, которые используют для расчета спотовую цену, но и привлекает на нефтяной рынок финансовых инвесторов, желающих заработать на пролонгации позиций. Отставание цены сорта WTI почти на $6 также дает некоторую гарантию, что американские сланцевые компании вряд ли будут наращивать производство нефти. Тем не менее перспективы спроса на сырую нефть в 2018 году не оставляют шансов ОПЕК и другим добывающим странам на наращивание производства. Чтобы обеспечить нефтяному рынку дальнейшую поддержку, им придется продлить срок действия соглашения, который истекает в марте следующего года. Принимая во внимание перспективы возможного снижения повышенного спроса со стороны НПЗ, мы прогнозируем, что по состоянию на конец года нефть Brent будет стоить приблизительно $55 за баррель. Нефть WTI вряд ли поднимется выше $51 за баррель, что окажет сдерживающее влияние на стремление американских добывающих компаний увеличивать объемы добычи. В 2018 году многое зависит от того, удастся ли сохранить рост спроса. Принимая во внимание наши опасения, связанные с развитием экономики в США и Китае, увеличение потребления нефти может оказаться несущественным. Оле Хансен, глава отдела стратегий на товарно-сырьевых рынках Saxo Bank, специально для «НиК»

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
06 ноября, 14:02

Прикол от Саксо банка

Счета у меня там нет, когда то переписывался с ними и видимо решили включить меня в свои рассылки. Вот это просто убило. === С 1 января 2018 года мы вводим плату в размере 50 долларов США для классических клиентов, за рассылку онлайн отчетов по почте или электронной почте (email). ==== Клиенты здесь есть? 50 баксов за емейлы. Саксо дико жжот. Рубят бабло на неанглоговорящих физиках из РФ. Тарифы у них АД, но они не останавливаются.

01 ноября, 18:02

О чем не молчат другие

В развитие поста https://smart-lab.ru/blog/428621.php В России в полной мере не осознали последствия новых санкций США, заявил глава Центра стратегических разработок Алексей Кудрин, сообщает finanz.ru.По его словам, санкционный режим, который вступит в силу в конце года в рамках закона, подписанного Дональдом Трампом летом, — это «совершенно новый, качественно более жесткий вариант».«Теперь любая компания мира, если она будет вести операции с этими российскими компаниями (попавшими в санкционный список), она попадет в этот санкционный список», — объяснил Кудрин.Фактически США хотят запретить работать с подсанкционными структурами не только своим компаниям, но и «выставляют угрозу компаниям других стран», сказал Кудрин.В результате в зону «больших рисков» попадают все операции в твердой валюте — вероятно, внешнеторговые сделки придется осуществлять в рублях, хотя это и дороже, предположил глава ЦСР. Страшное предупреждение для всех россиян открыто читается между строк: как только на кремлевской башне пробьют куранты и Россия войдет в 2018 год, начнутся необратимые экономические процессы. Количество отказов от контрактов со стороны иностранных партнеров приобретет массовый характер, хотя уже зафиксированы несколько разрывов договоров. Предвестники настолько пугают, что россияне даже боятся представить, что будет на самом деле после принятия Белым домом новых санкций. Теперь им придется не только отдавать часть бюджета на содержание Крыма и оплачивать прихоть президента РФ Владимира Путина — Керченский мост. В новом году РФ окажется на грани невиданного экономического кризиса. К слову, спастись, взяв деньги из Резервного фонда, не удастся. За последние годы Кремль значительно опустошил его войной на Донбассе и в Сирии.Напомним, новые санкции США будут вводить в три этапа: с 28 ноября срок валютных кредитов для уже находящихся под ограничениями госбанков и госкорпораций будет сокращен до 14 и 60 дней соответственно.С 30 января будет ужесточен запрет на предоставление технологий для добычи нефти и газа и введены санкции в отношении 39 российских структур, включая ГРУ, ФСБ и СВР, большинство оборонных предприятий («Калашников», Алмаз-Антей), авиастроительные концерны («Туполев», «Сухой»).Начало третьего этапа должен определить по своему усмотрению Белый дом: он включает запрет на инвестиции во все трубопроводные проекты РФ (включая Nord Stream 2, «Силу Сибири» и «Турецкий поток»); расширение санкционных списков на металлургов, РЖД, запрет на участие в сделках по приватизации, а также — новые персональные санкции в отношении богатейших людей РФ.Перечень близких Кремлю олигархов Минфин США должен подготовить к февралю. Тогда же ведомство отчитается перед конгрессом о возможности запрета на инвестиции в российские гособлигации.Принципиальное отличие этих мер в том, что теперь наказание может применяться к любым контрагентам компании из санкционного списка, заключившим с ней существенную сделку, объясняет партнер компании Debevoise & Plimpton LLP Алан Карташкин. Им грозит ограничение на экспорт товаров из США, запрет на получение любых финансовых услуг в США и привлечение финансирования с участием американских банков и инвесторов, введение ограничений на владение имуществом в США и запрет на выдачу виз и на въезд в США руководству компании и ее контрольным акционерам.Определять, является ли сделка существенной, каждый раз будет Госдеп.При этом подпавшим под санкции будет почти невозможно выйти из-под них. CAATS дает возможность конгрессу заблокировать решение президента о снятии санкций. Такие же условия содержала поправка Джексона — Вэника, которая была принята в разгар холодной войны в 1974 году и вводила ограничения на торговлю между США и СССР. Поправка была отменена лишь спустя 38 лет.Самый неприятный для России пункт — это запрет на инвестиции в госдолг. Если эта часть санкций будет принята, начнется бегство спекулятивного капитала из рубля и облигаций федерального займа, говорит главный экономист Saxo Bank Стин Якобсен.«Такой шаг ударит по экономике РФ больше, чем все предыдущие, вместе взятые», — предупреждает он: за два года нерезиденты вложили в ОФЗ 25 млрд долларов, и эта сумма «впечатляет», но при малейших рисках отток будет «стремительным». Диалог 1 ноября 2017 16:51

01 ноября, 11:49

Saxo Bank: «Нефть за 25–30 долларов в 2018–2019»

  • 0

Стин Якобсен, главный экономист датского Saxo Bank, вновь выступил в Москве и предсказал молниеносную войну американцев с Северной Кореей, новые санкции со стороны США в отношении России (худшие по сравнению со всеми ранее введенными) и падение цен на энергетические ресурсы более чем на 50% в ближайшие 10 лет. По словам экономиста из страны с самым большим […]

27 октября, 15:00

Saxo Bank предсказывает войну и всемирный кризис

С вероятностью 60% в начале 2018 года в мировой экономике случится рецессия. Об этом 27 сентября в ходе своего визита в Москву заявил главный экономист Saxo Bank Стин Якобсен. По его словам, важнейшим предвестником замедления экономического роста является снижение кредитного импульса (т.е. скорость создания кредитных денег). Обычно через 9 месяцев после снижения кредитного импульса происходит снижение темпов роста ВВП. В первой половине 2016 наблюдалось второе в истории по масштабу падение кредитного импульса – первое было накануне всемирного финансового кризиса 2008-2009 гг. В частности, большое снижение кредитного импульса наблюдается в России и Китае.По оценкам Стина Якобсена, если в России рост ВВП в 2017 году вряд ли превысит 1%, а в США – 2%, то в 2018 году эти параметры снизятся до 0% и 1,5% соответственно. Снижение уровня кредитования в России, по мнению Якобсена, несомненно может привести к неприятностям в российской банковской системе, и неприятные ситуации с банком «Открытие» и «Бинбанком», вероятно, будут, не последними. Якобсен высоко оценил политику Центрального банка России, который пошел на снижение учетной ставки и «не побоялся быть в оппозиции ФРС». Однако когда в стране наблюдается низкая производительность труда и есть проблемы с доходами населения, это не может не отразиться на банковской системе.Якобсен считает высоковероятным снижение цены нефти марки Brent до 30 долларов за баррель «в течение 13 месяцев, максимум в течение 2 лет», поскольку наряду с общим ухудшением экономической ситуации на нефтяные цены давят два фактора: электрификация автотранспорта и избыток нефтяных мощностей на Ближнем Востоке. По данным экономиста, уже 2018 году от 2% до 10% всех автомобилей в мире будут электрическими, а в 2019 году уровне электрификации автотранспорта может достичь 25%. Нельзя также забывать объявленный Китаем запрет на углеводородный автотранспорт с 2030 года и решение китайских властей о снижении выбросов. Многие ближневосточные страны – в частности Ирак, Иран и Алжир – могли бы увеличить поставки нефти на мировой рынок, и, вероятно, сделают это сразу после проведения IPO Саудовской нефтяной компании. Верхней границей колебаний цен на нефть Стин Якобсен считает уровень в 60 долларов за баррель – выше нефти не даст подняться рост поставок сланцевой и ближневосточной нефти.Общее замедление экономики и снижение цен на нефть может привести к падению рубля до уровня в 70 рублей за доллар.«Я начинаю нервничать», – заявил Якобсен.Кроме того, по прогнозу Стина Якобсена, велика вероятность военной операции США против КНДР в октябре.«Это мое личное мнение, но это я слышал от людей, которые глубоко знают ситуацию», – заявил экономист.Военные, с которыми беседовал Якобсен, высказывали предположение, что операция может длиться не более 48 часов, причем наземная атака не предполагается. По оценке аналитика, влияние военной операции в Северной Корее на курс доллара и фондовый рынок, скорее всего, будет краткосрочным и породит снижение в масштабе 2,5-5%. Однако если масштаб краткосрочного снижения перейдет границу 5%, это вызовет волну хеджирований; общий негативный тренд может длиться до года, и падение финансовых рынков может в итоге составить 20-25% – при параллельном росте цен на золото.Между тем, аналитики Citi 26 сентября в Москве дали свой прогноз развития экономической ситуации в мире и в России. Так, по словам главного экономиста Citi Уиллема Баутера, во всех экономиках ожидается чуть заметный рост, несмотря на риск торговых войн с Северной Кореей, Катаром и Ираном.2018 год станет лакмусовой бумажкой на стабильность макроэкономической ситуации. Худший сценарий – повторение глобальной распродажи на рынках ценных бумаг.Эксперты отмечают, что в третьем квартале произошла переоценка развивающихся рынков: аналитики ожидают роста в России и Бразилии. В эти страны уже увеличился поток капитала. На рынки за пределами западных стран хорошо влияет снижение волатильности. Положительный импульс идет и со стороны Китая.Директор Citi по стратегии на глобальных сырьевых рынках Энтони Юн уверен, что нефть не будет стоить дороже $54 за баррель в следующем году, но в четвертом квартале стоит ожидать недлительного подорожания до $58 из-за снижения добычи.По прогнозам Citi, инфляция в России не вернется к двузначным показателям в ближайшие два года и в среднем будет на уровне 3,5% (что ниже официального прогноза этого года – 3,9%). Аналитики прочат российскому ВВП рост на 2,3%, а процентная ставка остановится на уровне 19%.Уиллем Баутер считает: вряд ли стоит ждать ужесточения санкций по отношению к России, в том числе потому что для американских инвесторов ограничительные меры обернутся большими финансовыми потерями. Экономист подчеркивает: существующие санкции не были для нашей страны такими же ощутимыми, как, например, ограничения для Ирана.Авторы: Константин Фрумкин, Анна ОрешкинаИсточник

Выбор редакции
Выбор редакции
24 октября, 08:49

Инвесторы бегут из нефтяных фондов

Высокие цены на нефть - отличная возможность зафиксировать прибыль. Инвесторы массово выводят средства из фондов, инвестирующих в нефтяные фьючерсы.

24 октября, 08:49

Инвесторы бегут из нефтяных фондов

Высокие цены на нефть - отличная возможность зафиксировать прибыль. Инвесторы массово выводят средства из фондов, инвестирующих в нефтяные фьючерсы.

Выбор редакции
14 октября, 02:56

Мир готов отвернуться от доллара, — уверены финансовые эксперты

Главный валютный стратег Saxo Bank Джон Харди представил макроэкономический обзор валютного рынка, в котором назвал три основные фактора ослабления влияния американского доллара на мировом финансовом рынке.