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15 сентября, 12:52

Saxo Bank: о заседании ФРС США

Вопреки ожиданиям, ФРС не станет повышать ставку, а скорее объявит о сокращении баланса на 10 млрд. долларов ежемесячно, начиная с октября. Это будет выполнятся за счет того, что ЦБ не будет реинвестировать средства после истечения срока действия облигаций. Учитывая то, что президент США Дональд Трамп уладил с Демократами вопрос долгового лимита, ничто не мешает Федрезерву объявить об этом уже

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13 сентября, 17:41

WTI/RBOB Sink After Big Crude Build, Production Jump Offsets Greatest Gasoline Inventory Draw In History

WTI and RBOB prices are higher this morning following API's reported the biggest gasoline draw in history (compared to EIA data). Of course, disruptions (Florida demand and Texas supply) remain dominant but DOE reports a massive 8.4mm draw in Gasoline inventories - the biggest draw ever. The reaction in prices is anti-climactic as production rebounded and crude built dramatically to offset the exuberance. Bloomberg's Javier Blas reminds readers that the report covers the period from 7:01 am on Friday, Sept. 1 to 7:00 am on Friday, Sept. 8. So a lot of disruption from Harvey (particularly from Sept. 1, 2, and 3) will still impact everything from refining intake to crude production and U.S. imports and exports. API Crude +6.181mm (+4.82mm exp) Cushing +1.32mm (+1.6mm exp) Gasoline -7.896mm (-1.5mm exp) - biggest draw ever Distillates-1.805mm DOE Crude +5.888mm (+4.82mm exp) - biggest build in 6 mos Cushing +1.023mm (+1.6mm exp- biggest build in 6 mos Gasoline -8.428mm (-1.5mm exp) - biggest draw ever Distillates -3.215mm - biggest draw in 6 mos Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Vince Piazza notes that the impact from hurricane season will keep crude demand subdued, with roughly two million barrels of daily refining capacity off-line. Depressed gasoline consumption should persist temporarily on lower transportation use and suppressed refining utilization. Gasoline inventories confirmed API's data and saw the biggest draw in history as Crude and Cushing saw major builds... The bearish data point is that total U.S. petroleum inventories (that's crude, refined products, propane and the volatile "other oils" category) have built for the second consecutive week. Total stocks up 1.7 million barrels, driven by big builds in crude, propane and other oils. US Distillate exports fell to their lowest levels since 2010. The massive collapse in US crude production last week - with most of Texas offline - has recovered somewhat with a 572k surge in production this week. However, it is clear that levels of production are well off pre-Harevy levels...   “We’ve had some supportive news from all three major oil industry bodies, OPEC seeing robust demand, IEA seeing the same and the EIA downgrading their outlook for U.S. production,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “These are all things that point to a market that’s been in quite a better place than we’ve been in for a long time," and prices had gained following API's data, heading into the DOE data.   But it appears the biggest draw in history was not enough to hold RBOB prices up...  

13 сентября, 17:01

Доллар США перешел к слабому росту относительно основных мировых валют

Курс американского доллара в ходе торгов в среду перешел к слабому росту после опубликования статистики об изменении цен производителей в США.

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13 сентября, 01:30

Next Up For Venezuela: PDVSA's Inevitable Default

Authored by Saxo Bank's head of macro analysis Christopher Dembik via TradingFloor.com, A Venezuelan default is only a matter of time. While debt servicing has been a government priority, declining external liquidity and a deteriorating domestic situation (three-digit hyperinflation, shortages, and a political crisis between the government and the National Assembly) make it a daunting task. By 2020, the country must repay 30% of the external debt due to expire in the next 23 years. Venezuela can get access to liquidity via three main ways. The first option is to borrow directly on the financial market which implies that the country must pay an increasingly prohibitive risk premium due to investors’ fear of sovereign default. The second option, used intensively in recent years, is to borrow from allies, and especially China. Since 2009, Venezuela has borrowed at least $60 billion from China (through the Venezuelan-China fund) in exchange for selling oil at a discounted price. Loans were used to pay foreign manufacturers and repay external debt, such as in 2015. This exchange of good practices persisted as long as oil prices were quite high and Venezuela’s political situation was fairly stable. Since 2016, China has made a strategic move to reduce exposure to Venezuela which resulted in the repatriation of Chinese oil engineers (who filled local labour shortages), the end of financial aid, and reduced oil imports.  In this context, it is quite unlikely that Venezuela will be able to count on China for repayment of its loans, which increases the probability of sovereign default in the medium term. The last option is through the national oil company, PDVSA (Petróleos de Venezuela SA). As the country’s main source of income and access to foreign currency, PDVSA is key for those seeking to gain a real appreciation of Venezuela’s disarray and economic future. Over the past five years, it has accounted for virtually all of the country’s foreign exchange earnings – about 93%. The financial mechanism is quite simple: PDVSA borrows cash in the US financial market via its local subsidiary Citgo Petroleum Corporation, the sixth-largest US refinery, then the money is transferred to PDVSA and a significant part is allocated to Venezuela’s government budget. As bonds are issued under US law, which offer a good level of protection to investors, borrowing rates are more affordable than if bonds were issued under Venezuelan law. Until very recently, this has been the least costly way for the country to borrow. However, access to liquidity and foreign currency is being called into question by PDVSA’s increasing financial difficulties. This dates back to 2003-2004 when then-president Hugo Chavez decided to transfer the majority of PDVSA's revenues to the government budget in order to finance the Bolivarian missions – a series of social programmes – rather than investing in capex to increase the company’s productivity. The lack of investment did not have an immediate impact on PDVSA’s financial situation as long as oil prices were above $100/barrel. After all, it was enough to cover the cost of producing one barrel of Venezuelan oil (which are among the most expensive barrels in the world to produce at around $23.50 versus $10 in the Arabian Peninsula)... and to balance the government budget. The fall in oil prices from mid-2014 led to a massive drop in oil production, as well as lower profit margins and tax revenues. So far, PDVSA continues to pay its bondholders cash on the barrelhead, which explains why 80% of them buy back bonds when they expire. The company tries to maintain the illusion of a good financial situation, but this is misleading. The company is running out of cash. It keeps repaying bondholders in order not to cut off the Venezuelan government's financing flow but it is already unable to pay the  foreign oil field services companies on which it relies. Since 2015, PDVSA has made extensive use of various financial instruments (credit notes and commercial papers) to settle outstanding bills with foreign companies such as General Electric in order to delay the consequences of this problem. These instruments are not very liquid and are subject to haircuts, but they have two main immediate advantages. First, they give PDVSA additional leeway in repaying its creditors, up to six years. Furthermore, they give creditors the possibility of being reimbursed by the confiscation of PDVSA assets upon decision of the International Chamber of Commerce, an independent international organization whose secretariat is in Paris. In the near term, PDVSA faces a challenging debt repayment schedule since it needs to repay $3.2 billion due mostly in October and November. Based on official reports, the company only has $2 billion in cash to service its debt obligations. Nevertheless, a default is unlikely this year; fighting a political crisis and defaulting at the same time would be too complicated to handle.  Venezuela still seems willing and able to pay. In the worst-case scenario, PDVSA might use a grace period of a few weeks, as it did last year, in order to pull coins out of the sofa to pay these bills. The company can still obtain a new loan from Russian oil company Rosneft and propose as collateral its oilfield stakes; it could get funding from Venezuela's public banks (which has already been done recently for about $500 million); or the government can decide to use the central bank’s foreign reserves which are officially estimated at $10 billion, of which $1 billion is in cash and $9 billion in gold bars. Nonetheless, default seems inevitable in the medium term due to the prolonged period of low oil prices and increased US sanctions. President Trump's executive order of August 24, 2017, strengthened sanctions against PDVSA by prohibiting all transactions related to new debt with a maturity greater than 90 days and by forbidding Citgo from repatriating dividends in Venezuela. By cutting access to an essential source of funding, the Trump administration is precipitating the default of PDVSA and, given the key economic role of the company, of Venezuela. Any exit from the crisis will necessarily involve an increase in oil production. Since 2005, the country has been aiming to produce five million barrels per day but this target has never been reached and has been pushed back from year to year. In the first seven months of 2017, average oil production was 1.9 million barrels/day. The objective of multiplying oil production by 2.5 is achievable provided that the government lets the local private sector step in and signs agreements with foreign companies. In this respect, it can draw inspiration from the US which has increased oil production from 4.3 million to 9.5 million barrels per day over the past five years by relying on numerous small-scale private shale oil companies. However, this also implies full respect of private property, protection of minority investors, and political stability.

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11 сентября, 10:00

"МРСК Центра": Ежедневный обзор фондовых рынков

Перед открытием торгов в пятницу на российском рынке 8 сентября сложился нейтральный внешний фон. Американские индексы DJIA и S&P500 завершили четверг небольшим снижением в пределах 0,1%. По мнению аналитиков, одним из основных факторов давления на фондовый рынок США в последние дни являются ожидания негативных последствий сезона ураганов для экономики страны – ущерб от прошедшего урагана Харви, по некоторым оценкам, может составить до $200 млрд. Кроме того, к побережью Флориды приближается ураган Ирма – один из самых мощных за всю историю наблюдений. По прогнозам Saxo Bank, сумма ущерба от этого урагана может также составить до $200 млрд за счет дорогой недвижимости. В пятницу основные страновые индексы Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона теряли в среднем в пределах половины процента под давлением слабой статистики из Японии и Китая и геополитических рисков, связанных с КНДР

08 сентября, 20:49

"10-Year Treasury Yields Headed To Zero Percent" - Saxo Bank CIO

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, In his latest Email article, Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank Chief economist and CIO has a bold prediction about interest rates. With nearly everyone, even Janet Yellen at the Fed, predicting wage-induced inflation, Jakobsen makes a bold call in the opposite direction. This is a guest post by Steen Jakobsen Steen’s Chronicle: All Great Things are Simple, Except Right Now “All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honour, duty, mercy, hope” — Winston Churchill Let’s start with what is currently simple, and what has been simple all year. The US dollar has peaked and started a multi-year cycle lower as both US and world growth can’t work without a weaker dollar (a stronger dollar kills growth through debt service, emerging markets, and commodities). Everything is deflationary: demographics, technology, energy, and the debt mountain. The credit impulse peaked in late 2016/early 2017 leaving global growth vulnerable in the fourth quarter of 2016 and into Q1’17. US interest rates are headed to 0% in 10-year government yields by the end of 2018, early 2019. I am enclosing the word “simple” between a generously-sized pair of quotation marks because nothing is truly simple. But the themes outlined above have served us well throughout 2017 with the market having now given up on the Federal Reserve hiking rates beyond December.  This is because inflation in the US (and Europe) is more likely to hit 1% than 2%, and because growth – despite certain green shoots – remains considerably below historically normal recovery levels. Meanwhile, most central banks – most prominently the Fed – continue to believe in the old-school Phillips curve model, and through this mistake, they misguide markets on both inflation and growth – a classically dogmatic, bureaucratic way of thinking whose limits in a world of ever-changing technology are obvious. • New call: energy prices to fall by 50% over the next 10 years. For the balance of 2017 and into 2018, we will add that investors should expect considerably lower energy price levels to prevail as the electrification of cars goes mainstream. This will be led by China as electric cars represent a solution to the country’s pollution problems (viewed as “social priority number one” by authorities in Beijing). Petrol and diesel consumption by cars represents 55% of all oil consumption in the world and we deem the recent announcement by Volvo – now owned by China’s Geely (disclaimer: Geely also holds a 30% share in Saxo Bank) to be an indication of new industry standards. These being our main long-term macro themes, let’s look at the far more confusing short- and medium-term picture… USD, Trump  Disapproval Correlated 1:1 This probably comes as no great surprise but the correlation nevertheless confirms that even if Trump were successful in his policies, it would accelerate rather than slow the weakness of the dollar. The US runs an expanding current account deficit. It spends more money than it makes, and Trump says that this needs to be reduced. Fine… let’s do that, but let’s also realize that this would mean US living standards would fall as the current account deficit corrects. More precisely, the ability to spend money will fall as running a deficit is like living beyond your means. A surplus is the opposite. Sometimes facts and understanding can get in the way of politics. I know it’s sad, but a current account is one of the few things that can’t be manipulated as there is an offset with another country at the other end! Trump’s “America First” ethos is also anti-productivity as creating jobs for the mere sake of doing so is not the same as, and cannot compete with, creating productive jobs – and I apologize for stating the obvious! It’s clear that one of the few sectors in which the US remains competitive is technology, but the problem here also partly comes down to Trump. One of his key policies and longest-held views, after all, is that China is the “bad guy”. The US president seems committed to launching a trade war with China that, together with the US technology sector’s lack of a Chinese footprint, will give investors a wake-up call sooner rather than later. Right now, there are four billion people living in Asia (and the Indian subcontinent). By 2050, that number will have swelled to five billion – a five billion-strong market in which the US monopolies (Facebook, Google, and Amazon) have little or no market share. Good luck paying for 30 years of profit in a single share of Amazon given these conditions. Speaking of Amazon, I have to include this next chart. When listening to the younger traders on Saxo’s trading floor, it can seem like they forget that selloffs of 30-50% are the norm, not the exception, when looked at over a generation. This is my Nasdaq long-term chart combined with the crazy explosion of the Fed’s balance sheet. To understand the magnitude of the intervention made in 2008/09, look at the rate-of-change (ROC). Also, note how the Fed’s balance sheet no longer lends support to the market, but of course, negative convexity and reaching for yield carries the market forward by expanding P/Es into bubble territory … for now. BoC leads on bubbles, Phillips curve declared dead (by me!) The most interesting new development in central banking, however, is how some central banks are going it alone. Case in point? The Bank of Canada, which has now made two rate hikes independent of the Fed to deal with the country’s housing bubble. House prices in Canada are up 13% year-to-date and 200% since 2000; most of this is financed by 25-year amortization on five-year terms (i.e., rates are reset at five-year intervals). Two-year Canadian rates are now higher than their US equivalents for the first time ever, and the market is pricing in a 65% chance of another hike in December (and 40% in October). The point? Canada’s central bankers are clearly acting on bubbles and excess while the Fed and the European Central Bank continue to monitor the non-existent link between tight labour markets and inflation. This recent working paper from the Philadelphia Fed is interesting in terms of its relation to central bank policy and show even Fed’s own staff does not find support for the link between employment and inflation. Why is this relevant? Because central banks’ modus operandi is to peg policy to academic papers. Remember how I alerted you to pivot on the change in central banks’ quantitative easing consensus based on new evidence which found that QE without fiscal stimulus was inefficient? Well, I expect this paper to dictate a similar sea change away from reliance on Phillips curves and towards and increased focus on the deflationary effects of technology, demographics, and the debt burden. Don’t Believe Your eyes Don’t believe your eyes. The global economy is cooling. This is Saxo Bank’s global credit impulse monitor (the credit impulse is the “rate of change of change” of credit in the market = velocity of credit). Source: Saxo Bank This indicator leads markets by nine to twelve months and the magnitude of the current slowdown almost mirrors the equivalent slowdown in 2008/2009. I can already hear you protesting … “but the PMIs, the surveys, the data are improving!”. Sure, but these are all lagging indicators despite their fancy names and survey-based questions. Think of all economic and price data as having its own collective sine wave: These sine curves (data points) move forward and will have different peaks and troughs, but what’s interesting is when they all peak or bottom. What our credit impulse model says is that from the peak in Q4’16 there is a high probability of a big slowdown in the global economy 9-12 months later – so from October 2017 to March 2018. As I like to say, today’s economic data were created nine months ago by the amount of credit, the price of credit, and the energy prices seen following Donald Trump’s electoral win. The peak in activity seen in Q4’16/Q1’17, again, was created by massive credit creation post- the worst Q1 start in recent history (and one which drove the ECB and China to go full throttle on credit creation). This call for a significant slowdown coincides with several facts: the ECB’s QE programme will conclude by end-2017 and will at best be scaled down by €10 billion per ECB meeting in 2018. The Fed, for its part, will engage in quantitative tightening with its announced balance sheet runoff. All in all, the market already predicts significant tightening by mid-2018. We argue that the market is always late to the facts, hence the slowdown is now and is manifesting into a political situation where geopolitical risk continues to rise, where Trump is a lame-duck president, and where the debt mountain continues to grow while the repayment burden increases via “too low” inflation. This is a dangerous cocktail, particularly considering the high level of convexity and the low-volatility environment we are in. Asset allocation We have had the same positioning since Q1’17 (we use a Permanent Portfolio approach): Equities: 25% (respecting the momentum) Fixed income: 50% (see attached memo) Commodities: 25% (overweight gold and silver) Cash: zero We have recently reduced some of the risk as we are now: Equities: 10% (mainly gold mining stocks) Fixed Income: 25% (neutral weight) Commodities: 25% (neutral weight) Cash: 40% (overweight) The cash weighting, of course, is “too high” but we want to wait out September and Q4 to see how the credit impulse plays out. It’s been a good investor year and as J.P Morgan once said when asked how he became rich, “I took my profit too early” Conclusion I have purposely avoided discussing North Korea (where I think military escalation is inevitable); ECB tapering (which will be slow if at all); the Fed noise on Gary Cohn, Stanley Fischer and the lack of board members; the German election (major non-event); and Trump (lame-duck from here) to focus on what in my opinion truly drives the market: • The price of credit: Rising due to policy mistakes (read: Phillips curves)• The amount of credit: Dropping hard – contracting indicating slow-down from Q4-2017 into Q2-2018• Energy: The trend is clearly down and year-over-year changes dictate inflation inputs and direction So brace yourself and your portfolio for still-lower government yields, the flattening of yield curves (financial sector underperformance), and expected returns for stocks that on a good day with tailwinds will do 2-3% per annum versus 9-10% historically. When asked for the biggest lesson learned over more than 60 years in business, Vanguard founder John Bogle answered as follows: “reversion to the mean”. What’s hot today isn’t likely to be hot tomorrow, and the stock market reverts to fundamental returns over the long run. Is it simple? Hardly. If anything, we are moving further away from the simplicity embodied by five of Churchill’s six famous words.   We are moving away from freedom in terms of both markets and individual rights.   We are moving away from justice as monopolies continue to expand and inequality rises.   We are moving away from honour as mutual respect and common principles recede from view.   We are watching duty decline as our environment penalizes those who would stand by deals made and blocks those seeking to make necessary changes; increasingly, it even punishes those who would be accepting or merciful towards failure, In the final analysis, we are reduced to the last word: Hope. Here’s hoping. It could get worse before it gets better. Photo: Shutterstock -Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank Mish Comments Asset deflation is coming. Price deflation will accompany or follow. Stocks are not priced for perfection, they are priced well beyond perfection. Reversion to the mean is a theory that I endorse. Stocks are headed for a major decline of 50% or more. How long the decline will take is the key variable. I don’t know, but I suspect many years rather than a 2008-2009 crash. A push is on for electric cars in China and Europe. Even if the US lags, demand for oil will decline. Add in a global slowdown, and the price of crude could easily collapse. I won’t be as bold as to predict 0% yield on 10-year Treasuries, but the idea has considerable merit. The Fed missed an excellent opportunity to hike and now pleads with the market to go along. I did not expect the Fed to get in more than two hikes. They got in four. Odds of a December rate hike, once near 70% are now around 33%. I stick with my prognosis: There won’t be another hike. The next move will be lower. A confrontation with North Korea may not be “inevitable” but any miscalculation by either side will make it so. It’s easy to be complacent about the chance of war, but if Seoul gets hits, an instant global recession will commence. Trump’s tariff policy is a disaster. The only saving grace is he hasn’t done much yet. Confidence in the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of China will again come into question, in a major way. This will be good for gold. Gold vs Faith in Central Banks Related Articles Fed Study Shows Phillips Curve Is Useless: Admitting the Obvious North Korea Explodes Hydrogen Bomb, Triggers 6.3 Magnitude Earthquake: What’s Trump to Do? Disputing Trump’s NAFTA “Catastrophe” with Pictures: What’s the True Source of Trade Imbalances? Moral Outrage Over Low Wages: Canada Joins Trump With Threats of Walking Out on NAFTA Cummins New Electric Semi Truck Takes on Tesla: Another Cog in Autonomous Puzzle “Self Drive Act” Passes House Committee 54-0: Safety Standards Scrapped, 25,000 Driverless Cars Coming Right Up My key call: Asset deflation is coming. Price deflation will accompany or follow. The Fed is likely to panic. Trends in Sentiment, Asset Bubble, Gold As protection against Fed policies, it’s wise to own some gold. In case you missed it, please consider How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own? Finally, please consider my 38 slide powerpoint Venture Alliance Presentation on trends in sentiment, asset bubbles, and gold.

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07 сентября, 18:11

WTI/RBOB Drop After Harvey Prompts US Crude Production Collapse, Biggest Inventory Build In 6 Months

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Last night's first glimpse of Harvey's impact on energy confirmed a sizable crude build but only modest gasoline draw. WTI/RBOB prices slid into the DOE print and extended losses (after a quick kneejerk higher) following a bigger than expected crude build (+4.58mm vs +4mm exp). Gasoline and Distilates saw bigger draws than API reported but it was the collapse in Lower 48 crude production that stood out with most of Texas offline.   API Crude +2.79mm (+4mm exp) - biggest build in 5 months Cushing +669k (+1mm exp) Gasoline -2.544mm (-5.2mm exp) - biggest draw in 6 weeks Distillates -610k DOE Crude +4.58mm (+4mm exp) - biggest build in 5 months Cushing +797k (+1mm exp)- biggest build in 5 months Gasoline -3.20mm (-5.2mm exp)- biggest draw in 2 months Distillates -1.396mm The inventory changes reported by the API were much smaller than those forecast by analysts. As a reminder, Saxo Bank's Ole Hanson notes that "inventory data later is a lot of moving parts which could be quite skewed away from what we’ve seen in recent weeks." Additionally, investors “are going to be skeptical of the data,” James Williams, an economist at energy researcher WTRG Economics, told Bloomberg. “It might be pretty flaky data this week and next, so I don’t expect to see a big market-mover” Bloomberg's Fernando Valle notes energy's past week was all about Hurricane Harvey as refineries shuttered, choking output and hauling down inventories of gasoline and distillates. Bigger than expected crude build and bigger gasoline and distillate draws than API reported... Bloomberg's Fernando Valle points out that the increase in crude inventories was largely expected after the devastating impacts of Hurricane Harvey on the Gulf Coast. The draw on refined product inventories was weaker than expected, as lost demand -- both locally and abroad -- offset lower-than-expected refinery utilization. Investors' focus will now shift to the restart of refineries and export ports. As one might expect, Gulf Coast imports fell to a record low. Bloomberg's David Marino notes that exports tumbled with Texas ports closed. Crude was the lowest since 2014, before the export limits were lifted. Gasoline fell by more than half to 319,000 barrels a day, the least in four years, and distillate shipments were the lowest since 2011. Look for those numbers to rebound as ports and pipelines reopen fully. Production declined in the previous week, and with most of Texas ofline last week - Crude production in the Lower 48 collapsed... This is the biggest week-on-week fall since August 2012, when Hurricane Isaac shut in more than 1.3 million barrels a day of Gulf of Mexico production. WTI and RBOB have drifted lower after last night's API data, heading into the DOE data. The kneejerk reaction to the crude build, gas draw and production crash was higher prices...   But that did not last long... Brent “reached the May high and so far it’s been firmly rejected,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “It’s quite significant if we are getting a decent rejection here as it could indicate a short-term top in the market” “It’s a market that is starting to struggle to move much higher, Brent crude up to $55 is probably as good as it gets at this stage”: Hansen

04 сентября, 21:00

Gasoline Prices Tumble As Refiners Resume Operations

RBOB Gasoline futures tumbled to their lowest level in almost a week overnnight as several US Gulf Coast refineries reported their plans to restart operations after the devastation of Hurricane Harvey forced them to shutdown. While about one-fifth of U.S. refining capacity is halted, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, some plants including those operated by Citgo Petroleum Corp. and Marathon Petroleum Corp. are preparing to restart. The Oct '17 contract was down as much as 4% earlier before a modest bounce. Moreover, compared to the squeeze in the September contract, RBOB prices have really tumbled... Of course, this rather spoils Janet Yellen's transitory hopes for a burst of inflation to help her case when she next raises rates and while concerns had risen that higher gas prices could derail the Trump economy, it appears those risks are overblown. As The Hill reports, Stephen Moore, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former Trump transition energy adviser, said "the negative effect will be not pretty."   “We’re talking about maybe knocking half a percent, or one percent, off GDP for a quarter or two, higher gas prices for sure, because Houston is the energy capital of the country. … So all those things are negative.”   Moore said he follows a rule of thumb that every penny increase in commercial gasoline prices takes $1 billion to $2 billion out of the economy from consumers.   That means that as prices rise after Harvey, the economy could be hit even harder, including from lost economic production in Houston — the country’s fourth biggest city — and the spending needed for a major federal recovery effort.   “It’s a question of how much the prices are already starting to rise,” he said. “I don’t know how fast this industry can recover … Could we see gas prices over $3? Potentially. That would be a big hit to consumer finances.”   A disrupted economy, driven in part by stout gasoline prices, could undercut one of President Trump’s most resonant messages with voters. But with prices tumbling fast, this 'disruption' may merely be a storm in a teacup. “The disruptions from Hurricane Harvey in the U.S. Gulf Coast are gradually clearing,” wrote analysts at JBC Energy GmbH. “In the broader scheme of things, it appears that so far the energy industry was spared major damages to assets and infrastructure.”  The Energy Department also approved the release of 5.3 million barrels of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but hope for refinery reopenings has prompted modest gains in WTI also... “We’re awaiting news of continued normalization along the Texas Gulf Coast,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “Refineries are starting up and the next thing is to gauge the levels in different tanks from crude to gasoline and distillate”

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22 августа, 14:08

Биткоин может вырасти до $25.000 к 2022 году

Аналитики соревнуются за самый высокий прогноз по росту биткоина.Даже последние скептики уже не могут игнорировать тему биткоина. Прогнозированием цены на биткоин сейчас занимаются, кажется, все. Не остаются в стороне и крупнейшие инвестдома вроде Goldman Sachs.Консенсус-прогноз таков, что главнейшая криптовалюта встретит сопротивление около $4 500-$4 800 и начнет коррекцию, но затем продолжит рост. Докуда?Аналитик Pantera Capital Management, американской инвестиционной компании, специализирующейся на криптовалютах, Пол Верадиккатит (Paul Veradittakit) считает, что биткоин вырастет до $6000 уже к концу этого года. Такого же мнения придерживаются основатель Fundstrat Global Advisors Том Ли и главный стратег GFI Group Джон Спалланзани. При этом основатель Standpoint Research Ронни Моас считает, что биткоин продолжит рост до $7500 в 2018 году.   Вератиккатит из Pantera Capital Management говорит, что биткоин задержится около текущих уровней, а затем продолжит рост, после того как в ноябре выйдут обновленные технологии для биткоина, благодаря которым размер блока в биткойн-цепи удвоится до двух мегабайт и увеличится скорость транзакций. Компания Pantera Capital Management  инвестирует в биткоин с 2014 года. Но на пути биткоина могут стоять и трудности. Так, технический аналитик Goldman Sachs Шеба Джафари 13 августа сообщила в заметке клиентам, что биткоин может потерять около 40% в цене, после того как вырастет до $4 827.Спаллазани из GFI Group тоже ожидает серьезного падения, до $3000, если биткоин не сможет пробить уровень $4500, который тестировался на прошлой неделе. Но затем биткоин отскочет и вырастет до $10.000 в 2018 году, ожидает аналитик.Спаллазани рекомендует покупать биткоин, если цена выше $3800, и продавать, если она ниже этого уровня.Стратег Morgan Stanley Том Прайс – один из тех аналитиков, кто пока не решается давать прогнозы по криптовалютам, но всё равно не остается в стороне. Том Прайс говорит, что биткоин сравним с золотом в том смысле, что оба актива представляют схожую ценность как единица хранения, отметив их заменяемость, долговременность, переносимость, делимость и редкость. Тем не менее, он считает, что потребуется еще очень много времени, чтобы биткоин смог получить доверие широкого круга инвесторов.  Криптовалюты, в том числе биткоин, очень волатильны и из-за этого не особенно безопасны, но это может измениться, так как их цены растут, а ликвидность увеличивается, сказали стратеги Bank of America Merrill Lynch.Что касается долгосрочных прогнозов, то биткоин может вырасти до $25.000 к 2022 году, говорит Том Ли из Fundstrat Global Advisors. Американский регулятор недавно одобрил опционную торговлю, и благодаря этому могут существенно вырасти объемы держания биткоина у институциональных инвесторов, ожидает аналитик. А по прогнозу основателя Standpoint Research Ронни Моаса от 14 августа, биткоин может дойти до $50.000 к 2027 году, а число пользователей криптовалютами в ближайшие два года вырастет до 100 миллионов (сейчас оно составляет 10 млн).  «На мой взгляд, на данный момент процесс роста числа пользователей находится на стадии, аналогичной 1995 году для интернета», – говорит Моас. «Криптовалюты принимаются всё больше и чаще с каждым днем».Аналитик Saxo Bank Кай Ван-Петерсон говорил, что цена биткоина может превысить $100.000 через 10 лет. То есть с недавних рекордных максимумов цена вырастет на 3483%. Примечательно, что в декабре прошлого года Saxo Bank опубликовал годовой обзор под названием «Шокирующие  предсказания» («Outrageous Predictions»), и одним из таких предсказаний было, что биткоин в 2017 году дойдет до $2000. На момент публикации этого обзора биткоин торговался в районе $754, так что потенциал роста биткоина у Saxo Bank составлял 165%. Биткоин дошел до $2000 в мае 20 числа…Источники:http://www.fin24.com/Tech/Companies/bitcoin-analysts-compete-for-highest-forecast-as-profile-grows-20170821https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/31/bitcoin-price-forecast-hit-100000-in-10-years.html  (Перевод ИК ЦЕРИХ)

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14 августа, 16:36

Big Red Flag For Crude Bulls: Chinese Oil Refining Tumbles Most In Three Years As Fuel Demand Slides

Slowly but surely, what we have claimed for the past year - that it is the demand side of the oil equation, not the supply, and especially the "Chinese wildcard" that is the critical factor in setting prices - is starting to emerge and be factored in by markets. And so, just days after we posted "Another Red Flag For Oil? China’s Crude Imports Slump To 7-Month Low" arguably catalyzed by the increasingly full Chinese Strategic Petroleum Reserve, overnight we got another major red flag - once again out of China - when Bloomberg reported that China’s oil refining dropped the most in three years for the month of July, while crude output retreated from the highest this year, "as the world’s largest consumer showed signs of losing momentum." According to Bloomberg calculations based on NBS data released on Monday, as shown in the chart below oil processing in July dropped 4.4 percent from the previous month to about 10.76 million barrels a day. While daily refining output typically falls from June to July on maintenance, last month’s fall was the biggest seasonal decline since 2014. Crude oil output fell 3% to 3.84 million barrels a day. Separate data from industry consultant SCI99 revealed that state refineries in northwest and southern China at the end of July cut runs to 66.9% and 64.68% of capacity, respectively, the lowest since 2014, while independent refiners, known as teapots, were operating at around 58.78% near the lowest since May 5. The news has pressured oil prices lower all morning despite a generally risk on tone across global equities. “We’ve been drifting lower in the morning and now are reclaiming some of those losses,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “There’s not a lot to get your teeth into today” Hansen said adding that “Libya could have had a bit more a positive impact on a day where we hadn’t had the Chinese product demand news” The sharp slowdown in Chinese refining comes amid news that the pace of China’s economic expansion slowed last month, as broader data Monday showed factory output and investment moderated amid the government’s push to cool the property sector and reduce leverage. Official figures last week showed crude imports also fell in July, slipping to the lowest in six months, while net product exports jumped 19 percent. “A weaker macro economy has to some extent also affected fuel demand,” Li Li, an analyst with Shanghai-based commodities researcher ICIS-China told Bloomberg. “Runs are low because teapots have done some additional maintenance as they run down stocks and they also lowered runs amid stringent environmental checks.” As Bloomberg reported last month, the world’s largest refiner, state-run China Petroleum & Chemical Copr. known as Sinopec, will process about 1 million metric tons a month (about 240,000 barrels a day) less than it previously planned over June to August because of weaker fuel demand growth and competition from teapots. Suggesting that the weakness is broad based, and not simply a one-time event, Bloomberg also notes that China is on pace to produce the least amount of crude since 2009, even as its three biggest oil companies aim to raise combined spending for the first time in four years after the country’s crude production fell at a record pace in 2016. That contrasts with a surge in natural gas production, which is being encouraged by the President Xi Jinping’s government as an alternative to coal. Crude output from January to July averaged about 3.9 million barrels a day, down about 173,000 barrels a day, according to Bloomberg calculations. The International Energy Agency forecasts full-year output may drop by 150,000 barrels a day. Some additional details revealed in the latest set of data: Total crude production in July was down 2.9 percent from the same month last year at 16.25 million metric tons. Production in the first seven months of the year totaled 112.79 million tons, down 4.8 percent from same period last year. Natural gas output in July rose 14.7 percent year-on-year to 11.7 billion cubic meters. Natural gas output in the first seven months is up 8.8 percent to 85.8 billion cubic meters. Oil refining in July totaled 45.5 million tons, a 0.4 percent year-on-year rise. Refining in the first seven months is up 2.9 percent at 320.71 million tons. Finally, slamming the longer-term outlook for oil was none other than the world's (formerly) biggest oil bull, Andy Hall - who as reported last week is shutting down his flagship commodities fund - saying in his August 1 letter that oil market fundamentals for 2018 "have deteriorated", and adding that OPEC’s talk of extending oil production cuts is a “sign of weakness, not of strength”, while noting that U.S. shale firms can “profitably hedge” extra 2018 output at current prices.

11 августа, 20:03

US Crude Production At Cycle Highs As Rig Count Stabilizes; Desperate Saudis Jawbone Deeper Cuts To Come

A tough week for crude oil, which tumbled after algos tagged $50 stops yesterday following the biggest gasoline inventory build in 7 months. While the US oil rig count has stopped rising in the last few weeks, production continues to hit cycle highs stalling prices, but the Saudis are not giving up on their incessant jawboning - hinting that "deeper cuts" are still on the table. US oil rig counts rose by 3 to 768 last week - it has fallen 3 times in the last 7 weeks and is practically unchanged in the last 2 months... Just as we predicted, the lagged response to the shifting oil price has been a stalling of the rising rig count... But even with the US oil rig count declining for 3 of the last 7 weeks, crude production in the Lower 48 rose once again to 9.048mm b/d - the highest since July 2015...   WTI prices had a disappointing week - not helped by the biggest gasoline inventory build since January... Once WTI algos tagged $50, it was a one-way street lower “We are stuck in a range and having found some support at $48/bbl, it’s moving higher” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “We’re really unable to make a clean break” But as OilPrice.com's Tsvetana Paraskova notes, the Saudis are not giving up on their incessant jawboning. OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have not closed the door to the possibility of extending the production cut agreement or even lowering production levels, Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih told Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat in remarks published on Friday.. Al-Falih’s comments were aired just a day after OPEC confirmed reports that its crude oil production increase last month, reporting a daily rate of 32.869 million barrels, up by 172,600 bpd. Libya, Nigeria, and Saudi Arabia were the main drivers behind the OPEC production increase, with Libya raising its output by 154,300 bpd—by far the biggest increase among the cartel’s members. Nigerian oil production rose by 34,300 bpd to 1.748 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia’s went up by 31,800 bpd to 10.067 million bpd. “The possibility of continued production cuts is on the table, and the door to extension of reduction has not been closed. If further actions are needed by the market, whether to extend or change production levels, they will be examined on time and agreed through 24 countries,” Asharq Al-Awsat quoted the Saudi minister as saying. Saudi Arabia, however, will not take unilateral actions to tweak production and will seek consensus among all parties concerned, according to the most influential of OPEC’s oilmen. Earlier this week, OPEC held a meeting with some of the producers and cited its members Iraq and the UAE, as well as non-OPEC signatories to the deal Kazakhstan and Malaysia, as laggards in compliance, but added that they “all expressed their full support for the existing monitoring mechanism and their willingness to fully cooperate.” “It is too early to predict what will happen following the first quarter of next year,” al-Falih told the Saudi newspaper. Just two months ago, the minister told the same outlet that the oil market had started to show signs that it was headed in the right direction, and expectations pointed to the market returning to balance in the fourth quarter this year. The shrinking contango structure of the oil market has almost disappeared of late, in a sign that the market is tightening.

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29 июня, 17:33

Banks Are Saving Stocks As FANG Flops Again, DAX Hits 2-Month Lows

Yesterday's 'dead cat bounce' in FANG stocks has been erased as broad-based weakness stemming from increasing recognition of hawkish central bank chatter is hitting stocks and bonds. Bank stocks bounce after stress test 'success' are saving some indices from bigger losses. FANG stock erased yesterday's gains... Bank stocks bounced overnight and remain green but are fading as the day progresses...   All major indices are in the red with The Dow holding up better as Nasdaq is hit hard...   And Europe is in trouble too...   And bonds are being hit too...   “Markets are quite nervous about central banks,” said Andrea Tueni, a trader at Saxo Bank. “There is a kind of hawkish pivot by global central bankers that seems to have come in concert”

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22 июня, 17:55

Цены на нефть поднимаются в четверг

Нефть дорожает в четверг, однако все еще торгуется в "медвежьем" тренде на фоне опасений по поводу роста добычи в США.