Выбор редакции
25 декабря 2018, 10:00

Ориентир роста – 70 долларов за баррель

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В ближайшие месяцы постепенный уход с рынка Ирана вместе с потенциальным замедлением роста добычи нефти в Соединенных Штатах могут вернуть нефть марки Brent к уровню 70 долларов за баррель. После потери половины завоеванного с минимума начала 2016 г. нефти Brent наконец-то удалось найти от чего можно оттолкнуться. Мы считаем, что сокращение добычи на 1,2 млн баррелей в […]

29 ноября 2018, 14:33

У американской экономики нашли тормоз

Глава отдела макроэкономического прогнозирования датского инвестиционного Saxo Bank Кристофер Дембик обнаружил «тормоз» у экономики США — им стал рынок недвижимости, который в 2007-2008 годах обвалил американский фондовый рынок и стал предвестником глобального финансового кризиса.

29 ноября 2018, 09:45

Рынок жилья в США достиг пика, и его замедление означает снижение роста американской экономики - Saxo Bank

Геополитические события, происходившие в последние месяцы в Вашингтоне, Лондоне и Пекине, привлекали огромное внимание, а другие аналитические показатели - особенно рынок недвижимости США - оказались забыты, подчеркивает глава отдела макроэкономического анализа Saxo Bank Кристофер Дембик. Однако американский рынок жилья является надежным барометром для всей экономики, и пренебрегать им нельзя. Пока что рынок обращал очень мало внимания на ускоряющееся замедление в сегменте жилья, ведь инвесторы были слишком заняты, изучая последние геополитические события по обе стороны Атлантического океана. Между тем Национальный индекс Кейса-Шиллера почти достиг уровня, на котором находился перед мировым финансовым кризисом. Место Майами и Лас-Вегаса, где цены на жилье опустились ниже уровня 2007 года, заняли другие города, где наблюдается строительный бум. Однако, в отличие от 2007 года, долговая нагрузка на домохозяйства более устойчива: отношение задолженности к чистому располагаемому доходу близко к 109% против 142% в 2007 году. Нынешнее замедление происходит на фоне взрывного роста потребительской уверенности. В последние месяцы на рынке жилья наблюдалось всё больше и больше признаков замедления. Последние данные показывают, что настроение американских домостроителей упало до 60 пунктов - самого низкого уровня с лета 2016 года.

Выбор редакции
28 ноября 2018, 10:00

Финал нефтяной капитуляции

Saxo Bank прогнозирует отскок нефтяных котировок и возвращение цены на нефть сорта Brent до уровня 73 долларов США за баррель и даже выше в краткосрочной перспективе. ОПЕК и Россия усилят действия по стабилизации рынка и нацелены на рост нефтяных цен. Российская Федерация, заложившая в бюджет 2019 г. цену нефти в 40 долларов США за баррель, […]

Выбор редакции
14 ноября 2018, 10:00

Винегрет прогнозов и нефтяные горки в преддверии зимы

Октябрь завершился сильнейшим падением цен на нефть. Однако американские санкции в отношении Ирана все еще могут оказать им поддержку. Еще в начале октября этого года доминировали прогнозы роста стоимости нефти марки Brent до 85 или даже 100 за баррель к концу 2018 г. Тем не менее к концу прошлого месяца цена на этот сырьевой товар продемонстрировала максимальное месячное […]

Выбор редакции
28 сентября 2018, 12:00

Нефтяной рынок и ценовое ралли

По данным Reuters, цены на нефть демонстрируют положительную динамику. Утром во вторник, 25 сентября, фьючерсы на нефть марки Brent поднялись на 0,28% до 81,43 долларов за баррель. Возобновление американских санкций против энергетического сектора Ирана, ожидаемое в ноябре 2018 г., и сомнения участников рынка относительно способности других нефтепроизводителей компенсировать выпадение объемов иранского сырья, поддерживают цены на […]

Выбор редакции
15 августа 2018, 11:17

Нефть в тисках торговой войны и санкций против Ирана

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В августе на рынках, как правило, наступает затишье, но в этом году ничего подобного мы не наблюдаем. Рынки находятся в замешательстве из-за продолжительной эскалации риторики торговой войны между Соединенными Штатами и Китаем. Инвесторы опасаются, что в будущем это поставит под угрозу рост мировой экономики и спроса. Мы наблюдаем рост геополитической напряженности после введения США дополнительных […]

Выбор редакции
31 июля 2018, 10:00

Кредитный импульс: что ждет Россию после чемпионата мира по футболу

Вопреки тому, что мы могли бы предположить благодаря притоку валюты и более высоким ценам на нефть, чемпионат мира не оказал значительной поддержки рублю. Собственно, мы наблюдаем «отвязку» курса рубля от цен на нефть, которую мы наблюдали в 2017 г. в результате введения санкций Соединенных Штатов против России. С середины апреля цена на нефть марки Brent увеличилась более […]

10 июля 2018, 09:00

Игра на повышение. Дефицит нефти и баррель за 150 долларов

Новые прогнозы, вбросы и факторы для анализа нефтяного рынка появились за последние несколько дней. Большинство из них играет на руку повышению цен на нефть. Самый свежий прогноз принадлежит главе Saudi Aramco Амину Насcеру, предупредившему о недостатке инвестиций в проекты по разработке традиционных запасов нефти, чрезмерной увлеченности крупных игроков сланцевыми и другими краткосрочными проектами, а также […]

08 июня 2018, 16:29

Рынок нефти погряз в противоречивых новостях

Сырая нефть WTI, цена которой упала на 10% с недавнего пика, сейчас находится под влиянием множества противоречивых новостей. Добыча в Венесуэле перешла в свободное падение, в связи с чем США попросили Саудовскую Аравию и другие страны увеличить добычу.  Хотя цена сырой нефти начала снижаться только пару недель назад, давление на рынок растет с апреля, когда Дональд […]

Выбор редакции
18 апреля 2018, 12:01

Saxo Bank предупреждает

К прогнозам, по моему мнению стоит вообще относится скептически, но иногда «Датские товарищи» попадают прямо в цель. Как говорится в прогнозе, «мы приближаемся к окончанию величайшего эксперимента в монетарной политике за всю историю. Это происходит на фоне усиления националистических настроений, продолжающегося неравенства и все большего разочарования и потери надежд среди представителей молодого поколения». Оригинал статьи: Суровые годы приходят борьбы за доходы страны

03 апреля 2018, 14:43

США уничтожат мировую экономику

Глобальную финансовую катастрофу спровоцирует торговая война Вашингтона и Пекина

03 апреля 2018, 14:05

Liquidation Panic Fades, Futures Rebound As Tech, Trade Turmoil Eases

Global trade concerns and the "tech wreck" remained the focus as European markets reopen from Easter break, however the selling turmoil that sent the Dow tumbling as much as 700 points on Monday has eased off with S&P futures set for a gentle rebound, if still below the 200DMA of 2,590... ... as Asian benchmarks pared much of their decline, and European stocks well off session lows. And while global markets which were closed on Monday are generally catching up to yesterday's liquidation in the US amid a sea of red... ... the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow were all poised to open in the green following Monday’s selloff, while Treasuries fell (and yields rose) alongside the dollar.  It's worth noting that the correlation between S&P 500 and Treasuries appears to be breaking down short-term, as 10-yr yields fall 1bp despite the stock index declining more than 2% and closing below 200-DMA for first time since June 2016 "There is actually very little contagion from all the equity market moves that are grabbing all the headlines," said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its first decline in four days as markets reopened after the long weekend, though the drop was less than half that of the S&P 500 a day earlier. Europe’s main markets in London, Paris and Frankfurt were all down more than 0.5%, after being closed on Monday when the pace of selling pushed U.S. markets below the key 200DMA support level. Meanwhile, not helping matters was the weakest euro-area manufacturing figures in eight months which added to the gloom and fears that the European economy is now rolling over, resulting in the euro paring almost all of its advance, helping exporters. As shown below, today's sentiment disappointment was across the board. Eurozone March manufacturing PMI 56.6, down from 58.6 in Feb. Germany March manufacturing PMI 58.2, down from 60.6 in Feb. France March manufacturing PMI 53.7, down from 55.9 in Feb. As Bloomberg notes, a similar rollover in business climate indicator last week was seen as sell signal for European stocks. Earlier, Asian shares also stumbled overnight, although less than Wall Street. Japan’s Nikkei ended down 0.45 percent, after falling as much as 1.6 percent. China’s Shanghai Composite index eased 0.9% and the blue-chip CSI300 was off 0.7%. Australian stocks recovered as mining stocks and energy names outperformed. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the tech-related losses and after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for an 8th consecutive occasion, while markets in Hong Kong also took their 1st opportunity to react to  China’s tariffs on US products and reports of the government pressuring banks to halt local government lending. Meanwhile, despite today's risk rebound, it may be too early to declare victory over the selloff: recall that on Monday the S&P 500 closed at a seven-week low of 2,581.88 on Monday, and below its 200-DMA for the first time since Brexit (and Gartman has yet to go short, again). And while some, such as JPM have again reiterated their long-running and incorrect mantra to buy the dip, others are no longer buying the KoolAid such as French bank Kepler Cheuvreux: "This phase of correction has not yet reached its climax and that investors should sell market bounces from this point. The final stage of this correction should be characterized by authentic investor pain and panic and by a shift into defensive assets, which should be visible by the end of April. We would start to buy stocks when we see the S&P 500 at the 2,500 threshold." Others are more lukewarm: "What we are really seeing across the economies and markets are opposing forces playing out: in the economy you are seeing Fed versus inflation, in markets you are seeing momentum versus fundamental supports,” JPMorgan Asset Management Global Market Strategist Hannah Anderson told Bloomberg TV. “Investors need to be aware of these opposing forces along with a lot of the headline risk we are seeing come through when it comes to trade and regulation and how that’s going to impact their portfolios." In other overnight developments, overnight BoJ Governor Kuroda said the bank is internally discussing an exit from current monetary policy but will not communicate it with the markets until policy normalising timing draws near. He added the BoJ will patiently continue easing of current monetary policy as there is still a distance to the price target. Also overnight, the RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 1.50% as expected and reiterated that steady policy is consistent with growth and inflation goals. RBA also repeated that a strengthening currency would result to slower pace of economic pick-up but that the currency remains in the range seen prior years, while it also commented that inflation likely to stay low for some time.  U.S. Treasuries, German Bunds and UK Gilts all saw a bit of selling, with yields on 10-year notes off two- to three-month lows. “The big question is how far the current tremor in the equity market will affect bonds, given it is driven by a single company - even if it is a tech giant having a huge market weight,” said DZ Bank strategist Christian Lenk. Among the main commodities, Brent oil futures nudged back up towards $68 a barrel. They had fallen more than 3.7% on Monday after news of rising Russian output and the escalating U.S.-China trade dispute weighed on sentiment. WTI gained 14 cents to $63.15, copper jumped 1.4% for its fourth straight gain and spot gold ticked down 0.2 percent to $1,338.08 an ounce. Expected data include auto sales for March. International Speedway, Cloudera, and Dave & Buster’s are among companies reporting earnings. Despite the ongoing tech turmoil, music-streamer Spotify Technology is set to launch its alternative IPO on the NYSE. As noted previously, the trading price will remain a mystery until existing holders sell shares. Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk European bourses are lower after losses on Wall St. and Asia overnight (Eurostoxx -0.9%) as Chinese trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across the bourses. The broad Dollar remains on the back foot amidst heighted US vs China tit-for-tat import tariff impositions, but off worst levels vs G10 and other major counterparts. Looking ahead, highlights include APIs and Fed’s Kashkari Top Overnight News China will respond to any tariffs imposed by the U.S. against alleged violations of intellectual property rights with the same proportion, scale and intensity, said its U.S. ambassador Cui Tiankai The Bank of Japan is talking about how to eventually exit from its massive monetary stimulus program, but it’s still too early to reveal details, Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament Tuesday Trains and planes were canceled across France as unions pushed forward with protests against President Emmanuel Macron’s plans to strip benefits from some state workers The pound has appreciated versus the dollar every April during the last 13 years in what Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes as the strongest seasonal trend among Group-of-10 currencies The Trump administration is pushing for a preliminary Nafta deal to announce at a summit in Peru next week, and will host cabinet ministers in Washington to try to achieve a breakthrough, according to three people familiar with the talks Oil held losses after the biggest decline in almost two months as fears of a trade war prompted investors to flee commodities and other risky assets President Donald Trump’s imported steel and aluminum tariff announcement helped send a measure of raw-material prices paid to an almost seven-year high in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey The New York Fed is set to begin publishing its three new reference rates at 8am ET on Tuesday, including the Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR), the rate selected by the Alternative Reference Rates Committee to replace USD Libor Sterling appreciated versus the dollar every April during the last 13 years in what Bank of America Merrill Lynch describes as the strongest seasonal trend among Group-of-10 currencies Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2,584.00 STOXX Europe 600 down 1% to 367.12 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.05% to 172.41 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.07% to 564.15 Nikkei down 0.5% to 21,292.29 Topix down 0.3% to 1,703.80 Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 30,180.10 Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3,136.63 Sensex down 0.06% to 33,236.17 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 5,751.92 Kospi down 0.07% to 2,442.43 German 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 0.507% Euro up 0.2% to $1.2329 Brent Futures up 0.8% to $68.18/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 5.4 bps to 1.532% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.18% Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,337.34 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 89.86 Asian stocks were mostly lower as the downbeat tone rolled over from Wall St where China’s trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across all bourses, with losses in the S&P 500 (-2.2%) exacerbated on technical selling after a break below the 200DMA while the Nasdaq underperformed as it slipped into the red YTD and into correction territory. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) both opened lower with the latter suffering the brunt of a firmer currency and with losses seen across tech names following similar underperformance in their US counterparts, which was led by selling in Amazon after President Trump’s tirade on the online giant. Conversely, Australian stocks then recovered as mining stocks and energy names outperformed. Hang Seng (+0.3%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.8%) conformed to the tech-related losses and after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations for an 8th consecutive occasion, while markets in Hong Kong also took their 1st opportunity to react to China’s tariffs on US products and reports of the government pressuring banks to halt local government lending. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher as they tracked the prior session’s gains in T-notes amid the risk-averse tone, while the 10yr JGB auction results were inconclusive with the results mixed as the b/c fell but accepted prices surged from prior. Top Asian News Renesas Tumbles as Top Shareholders Plan to Unload Stakes China’s Xi Turns Deleveraging Sights on Local Governments, SOEs Xiaomi CEO Calls China’s Plan to Lure Tech Listings ‘Excellent’ Indian Bonds Rally After RBI Allows Banks to Spread Debt Losses Turkey Overheating Means Race Against Time for President Erdogan European bourses have opened lower after losses on Wall St. and Asia overnight (Eurostoxx -0.9%), Chinese trade retaliation and tech woes weighed heavily across the bourses. The tech sell-off rolled over from the previous  sessions with the sector currently underperforming. Semi-conductors are amongst the worst performers as names take a hit on the news that Apple is looking to steer away from Intel chips to create their own by 2020. On the flip side, Barclays was initially higher after reports the bank is planning a multi-million GBP share buyback. Miners are amongst the top performers after feeling the boost from firmer base metal prices. Finally, Sky (+1.3%) is at the top of the FTSE 100 amid news that Fox is offering to sell Sky News to Disney as it seeks to obtain regulatory clearings for its proposed takeover of Sky Top European News TomTom Shares Climb in Amsterdam as Deal Speculation Continues U.K. Factories Sustain Growth After Entering ‘Softer’ Phase Euro-Area Manufacturers Rein in Output Amid Capacity Constraints May Faces Industrial Quicksand Again in Melrose’s GKN Deal In FX, we look at the DXY first: the broad Dollar remains on the back foot amidst heighted US vs China tit-for-tat import tariff impositions, but off worst levels vs G10 and other major counterparts to leave the Index close to the 90.000 mark within a 89.850-90.070 approximate range. JPY: One of the more lively currencies as EU markets return from their extended Easter break amidst some mixed and contradictory comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda (at least in terms of the wire headline interpretations). He initially underscored easy policy guidance and appeared to quell any speculation about an exit given that inflation is still some distance from target, but then revealed that internal discussions about unwinding the balance sheet and raising rates are underway, though nothing will be communicated to the markets until such time that economic growth and prices are right. Usd/Jpy fell abruptly from just above 106.00 towards the 105.70 low before rebounding to around 106.20 and a slightly higher peak vs yesterday’s 105.66 base. CAD (and MXN). The Loonie is gleaning support from latest NAFTA reports suggesting that US President Trump is keen on nailing down a deal by the middle of the month, with Usd/Cad back under 1.2900. GBP. Cable is extending gains above 1.4050 towards 1.4100 and Eur/Gbp is looking at bids/support around 0.8750 in wake of a firmer than forecast UK manufacturing PMI and amidst UK press reports claiming that PM May is looking at a customs partnership as a resolution for the Irish border. EUR. Eur/Usd is back above 1.2300 after mixed Eurozone national manufacturing PMIs left the pan print unchanged from the preliminary reading, and with little real reaction to an FT story putting Liikanen in pole spot to replace Draghi as next head of the ECB. In commodities, oil prices posted gains despite Russia’s production for March climbing to 10.97mln bpd making the country the largest oil producer in the world. Prices also held gains, ignoring potential reductions in Saudi Arabian oil  prices. Gold prices inched lower, despite softer equities which continued to sell-off. Elsewhere, profit taking sent Chinese steel futures lower for the first time in six trading sessions. London copper hits its highest level in more than a week, lifted by better than expected Chinese manufacturing PMIs. US Event Calendar Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.1m, prior 12.9m; Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.9m, prior 17m 9:30am: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Regional Economic Forum 4:30pm: Fed’s Brainard Speaks on Financial Stability DB's Jim Reid, who has just returned from a 2 week vacation, concludes the overnight wrap While I was away markets have certainly been as moody as a temperamental toddler and the first trading day of the quarter yesterday started pretty badly as well. In my absence I’ve had to catch up with the tariff/protectionism developments, White House personnel changes, the tech sector/Facebook woes and weaker PMIs to name but a few of the headwinds facing markets. Indeed it’s been a bit of a perfect storm. The drivers above are unrelated but have all bubbled up to the surface at a similar time. As today is the first EMR of the month we recap both March and Q1 2018 from a performance point of view at the end with all the graphs and tables in the full report if you click on the link in our email. As you’ll see March saw 22 of our 39 regularly tracked global asset with a negative total return with 21 seeing the same in Q1. All this after a stomping January. As an example the S&P 500’s total return has dropped from +5.72% at the end of January to -0.76% by the end of Q1 and after yesterday the index is actually down over 10% from the January highs. So as discussed US markets were one of the few open yesterday and it wasn’t particularly pretty with the S&P 500 (-2.23%) and the NASDAQ (-2.74%) down to the lows seen in early February, although both did recover from intra-day lows of -3.30% and -3.65% respectively. Within tech, Intel dropped the most in 2 years (-6.07%) as Bloomberg reported that Apple is planning to use its own chips in Mac computers from 2020, while Amazon fell -5.21% as President Trump noted that “only fools…are saying our money losing Post office makes money with Amazon….and this will be changed…” and Senator Rubio also tweeted “potential new economy monopolies will require close monitoring”. Adding to the negative sentiment, on Sunday China announced retaliatory tariffs on 128 US products including a 25% charge on pork and seamless steel pipes, broadly in line with prior press articles that tariffs would apply to c$3bn worth of US goods. Notably, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that “…both sides should use dialogue and consultation to resolve their mutual concerns”. Elsewhere, the VIX jumped 18.28% to 23.62 and yields on UST 10y fell 0.9bp, while all sectors within the S&P were down with losses led by the tech, consumers and materials sector. This morning in Asia, markets have followed the negative US lead with the Nikkei (-0.52%), Kospi (-0.47%), Hang Seng (-0.61%), and Shanghai Comp. (-0.87%) all down as we type. The futures on S&P are up c0.3% while yields on UST 10y are c1bp higher. Elsewhere, unnamed sources have told Bloomberg that the White House wants Canada and Mexico to join in unveiling the broad outlines of a new NAFTA deal at the Summit of the Americas next week,  while finer technical details could continue later on. For the week ahead, outside of the PMIs today and Thursday, and European CPI (tomorrow) the big events are back loaded to Friday with the release of the March employment report in the US, followed by Fed Chair Powell's speech on the Economic Outlook. With regards to the March employment report, the market consensus is currently pegged at a 189k payrolls print, while our US economists are slightly above this at 200k. Remember that this follows that bumper 313k reading in February. Our economists also note that March has historically been a difficult forecast month as the median consensus estimate has overestimated the initial March nonfarm payrolls print in four of the last five years by an average of 62k. For the crucial average hourly earnings, our economists expect a +0.2% mom reading, which would be sufficient to raise the annual rate by one-tenth to +2.66% yoy - still about 10bps below the January high of +2.77% yoy. It's worth noting that we have only seen the average hourly earnings print match consensus on one occasion in the last six months (three of those months have been above consensus, and two have been misses). Before we take a look at the full week ahead calendar and the performance review, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March ISM manufacturing index fell 1.5pts mom from its 13 year high to 59.3 and was modestly below expectations (vs. 59.6). Notably, the ISM prices paid measure rose 3.9pts to the highest since April 2011 (78.1 vs. 72.5 expected) with price increases across 17 of 18 industry sectors last month. The ISM noted there were indications that labour and skill shortages were affecting production. Over the Easter break, the February PCE core was in line at 0.2% mom and 1.6% yoy, which leads to a 6 month annualised rate of 2.1%. The February personal income (0.4% mom) and personal spending (0.2% mom) were also both in line. Elsewhere, the March Chicago PMI was below expectations at 57.4 (vs. 62). In Europe, Germany’s March unemployment rate was in line at 5.3% while the March CPI was below market at 1.5% yoy (vs 1.6% expected). Elsewhere, France’s March CPI (1.7% yoy vs. 1.5%) and Italy’s CPI were both above expectations (1.1% yoy vs 0.8%). In China, its March manufacturing PMI rose for the first time since November and was above market at 51.5 (vs. 50.6 expected). The release of the manufacturing PMIs in Europe should dominate the morning session with final March revisions due, as well as a first look at the data for the periphery and UK. In the US the only data due is March vehicle sales. The Fed's Kashkari is also due to speak again. Away from this, President Trump is due to meet with leaders of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia at the White House.

03 апреля 2018, 11:26

Апокалипсис уже завтра: Трамп добьет глобальную экономику

Глобальная экономика показывает "признаки замедления". И это еще – "оптимистичный сценарий", предупреждают эксперты Saxo Bank. Алармистский же сценарий, свидетельствующий о завершении восстановительного цикла, выглядит так: в любой момент "может рвануть" -- и повторится кризисный 2008 год. Причем, с какого сектора экономики начнется обвал рынков, неизвестно. Но если торговая война между США и Китаем перейдет в реальную фазу, это будет началом конца.

03 апреля 2018, 11:26

Эксперты: мировая экономика может обвалиться "в любой момент"

Глобальная экономика показывает "признаки замедления". И это еще – "оптимистичный сценарий", предупреждают эксперты Saxo Bank. Алармистский же сценарий, свидетельствующий о завершении восстановительного цикла, выглядит так: в любой момент "может рвануть" - и повторится кризисный 2008 год. Причем, с какого сектора экономики начнется обвал рынков, неизвестно. Но если торговая война между США и Китаем перейдет в реальную фазу, это будет началом конца.

30 марта 2018, 03:00

Saxo Chief Economist Warns Consumers "Maxed Out", Fears 30% Plunge In Stock Market

"I think overall we have been pricing in for Goldilocks and we are closer to Frankenstein to be honest," warned Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank's outspoken chief economist, during an interview with CNBC, and that divergence from reality could mean markets face a 25-30% correction from a potential sudden recession scenario. Jakobsen cited several factors including growing credit-card loans (and soaring delinquencies), a widening fiscal deficit in the U.S., doubts over infrastructure spending plans, and a potential trade war. "All the data we've seen over the last few weeks has basically been that the consumer is maxed out, we've seen that in credit card loans as well, so I think the consumer is done spending the money." The Saxo Bank economist appears to have noticed what we highlighted earlier in the month, that while the larger U.S. banks that dominate credit card issuance have focused on prime and super prime consumers post the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), and have enjoyed a prolonged period of low charge off rates concurrent with the Fed’s almost decade long ZIRP. As TCW's Chet Melhotra notes, it is America's smaller banks - those not in the Top 100 by asset size - that have experienced in just the recent months a surge in charge off deterioration, which at 7.9% is on par with the last financial crisis!  In other words, to find where the next consumer credit crisis hides - and will erupt next - ignore the big banks and focus on the smaller ones.   And as we also noted here, judging by the collapse in household "buying plans," the consumer is indeed "maxed out" as Steen notes.   As CNBC details, Jakobsen highlighted a "Goldilocks" scenario that he feels traders are mistakenly pricing in to markets, where fresh economic data are either not too hot or not too cold. Overall, the global economy is currently experiencing lower levels of unemployment and higher growth. Looking at 2018 in particular, many analysts hoped for strong global growth on the back of higher inflation and higher investment, but according to Jakobsen, these drivers "aren't actually materializing." Instead, Jakobsen made a reference to the novel "Frankenstein," arguing that the economy had been skewed by central bankers, who have injected trillions of dollars into the global economy to boost growth and investment. Estimates for the first quarter of 2018 "started at more than 5 percent expected GDP (gross domestic product); we are now significantly less than 2 percent for the (first quarter) expected, so I don't really see things happening in the growth area," Jacobsen added. "We've been at 2 percent exactly since the financial crisis, I don't think we're going to deviate from that," he said. And Jakobsen warns that in a scenario of a potential sudden economic recession, he sees a possible market correction of between 25 and 30 percent.

Выбор редакции
26 марта 2018, 12:30

Нефтеюань, ставлю на коллапс.

Saxo bank: — с переходом на нефтеюани курс юаня подскочит на 10% к американской валюте home.saxo/campaigns/outrageous-predictions-2018  USDCNY below 6.0 Китай убьет нефтедоллар, до начала X осталось ...  maxpark.com/community/5392/content/6269646  Ну и здесь на смарт лабе китайской валюте пророчат доминирование в мире, над всеми остальными валютами smart-lab.ru/blog/460075.php  Прогнозов много, но я склонен проверять на астро гороскоп, перед входом  в позиции.   Итак гороскоп Юаня, только  кратко, а краткость это сестра:- 16 мая Уран у нас переходит в Телец и соединяется с Меркурием, это первый удар по Шанхай композит. Далее в конце июня Марс станет R и в начале июля 2018 начнет двигаться на асцендент натала Китая, в июле в китайской экономики долговые проблемы начнут усложняться, а с августа давление на Юань нарастает. 2 июля 2019 солнечное затмение попадает тенью на Пекин, плюс действует орбис оппозиции тр Нептуна к Сатурну Китая, этот аспект был гороскопе Таиланда в 1997 — 1998 годах, когда бат и экономика Таиланда пострадали больше всех в кризисе тихоокеанской азии.  В декабре 2019 — январе 2020 в гороскопе Китая мы видим Юпитер в оппозиции Урана Китая, юань будет девальвирован, по аналогии 2 июля 1997 бата Таиланда. В общем текущий аспект соединение Сатурн — Плутон 12 января 2020 года в орбисе до и после вызовет хаос не только в Китае, но и на развитых биржах мира. Резуме: ничего не имею против новой мировой резервной валюты Юань, будет обвал USDCNY как предсказывает Saxo Bank, сниму шляпу, но к сожалению мой анализ не подтверждает прогнозы аналитиков банков, инвестиционных домов и смарт — лаба. Моя прогноз -  рост USDCNY.       

20 марта 2018, 21:06

Steen Jakobsen: Now Is The Time To Be In Capital-Preservation Mode

Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com, Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer and Chief Economist of Saxo Bank, is sounding a clear warning of an arriving market correction. Over-inflated asset prices, over-crowded trades, anemic market liquidity, and a continued decline in the credit impulse set the table for a banquet of consequences, in Steen's view. Confident a market correction of at least 15% lies ahead, Jakobsen urges investors to exit leveraged positions and build cash. As for a longer view, he predicts commodities will be one of the best asset classes to own over the next five to ten years: Every single product available to investors today at has less liquidity than is perceived. I think one of the biggest gaps between perception and reality right now is the ability to actually exit the portfolio you're in. Whether that's an ETF, whether that's credit, or whether that's even some of the small cap stocks. We already have a proof of this because the spike in February. Think about it: it was just a 5% move in terms of price, but it created almost a 10,000% increase in volatility. If a 5% move creates that sort of noise in the system, it shows that we're playing musical chairs. And when the music stops we're not missing one chair, but we're going to be missing three chairs in a ten-chair race. It's pretty clear that the liquidity side is a concern. This afternoon a un-named Central Bank called me up and wanted to talk about liquidity in ETFs and the bigger risk of the market itself. If you look at the breadth of the stock market over the last couple of weeks, it's very, very, very narrow. So we're all chasing the same investments, we're chasing the same themes. We're assume everything is benign when we talk about risk. But I'm very concerned. My quantitative model supports this caution; it's saying we really have to be in the mode of capital preservation now. This is the time for capital preservation. Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Steen Jakobsen (45m:44s).

07 марта 2018, 18:35

WTI/RBOB Rebound After Inventory Data Despite Record Production

RBOB has given up its post-API gains and RBOB is sliding into the DOE data but both jumped as Gasoline inventories drew down and crude's build was bigger than the whisper number. Production jumped to a new record high. Notably, Bloomberg Intelligence Energy Analyst Fernando Valle points out that the prospect of a trade war raised by U.S. President Donald Trump is narrowing distillate crack spreads even as demand remains robust. The fear is that a dispute would dampen industrial activity, reducing demand for diesel fuel that powers trucks and machinery.   API Crude +5.66mm (+3mm exp) Cushing -790k exp Gasoline -4.536mm - biggest draw since Oct 2017 Distillates +1.487mm DOE Crude +2.408m (+3mm exp, whisper +2mm) Cushing -605k (-600k exp) Gasoline -788k (+1mm exp) Distillates -559k Inventories are just 2% above the five-year norm, with Cushing stockpiles more than 45% below the average.   All eyes are again on US crude production after EIA upped its forecasts and OPEC begged for Shale to stop... but production jumped 86k last week to a new record high... Despite a kneejerk higher after API's big gasoline draw, RBOB has pushed lower along with WTI ahead of the DOE data, but both rebounded after (though RBOB is fading the initial jump) “Oil fundamentals have been showing signs of weakening,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Strong non-OPEC oil-production growth looks set to challenge OPEC and Russia’s ability to maintain price stability.”

24 февраля 2018, 16:25

Kitco: обзор рынка золота с 19 по 23 февраля 2018 г.

Хотя на рынке золота сохраняется "бычий" тренд, аналитики, тем не менее, всё равно рекомендуют инвесторам быть на следующей неделе осторожными с наращиванием позиций в драгметалле по ряду причин...