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Североамериканская зона свободной торговли
23 июня, 16:21

Беннет: пришло время проявить милосердие к Ольмерту

Министр образования призвал правительство освободить бывшего премьер-министра Израиля Эхуду Ольмерта.

23 июня, 11:01

Ирак: шиитское ополчение начало наступление на ИГ в Дияле

Шиитское ополчение «Хашд аш-Шааби» объявило о начале полномасштабного наступления на боевиков «Исламского государства» в район Нафт-Хана.

23 июня, 02:09

Венесуэльская PDVSA хочет купить на рынке более 6 млн баррелей нефтепродуктов

Венесуэльская государственная нефтегазовая компания PDVSA планирует купить на рынке до 6,32 млн баррелей различных видов нефтепродуктов. PDVSA намерена закупить 17 партий смеси для бензина, каталитической нафты, низкосернистого дизтоплива, вакуумного газойля и компонентов. Поставки должны быть осуществлены в июле–декабре, следует из условий торгов. Это будет крупнейшая за последние годы закупка, отмечает Reuters.

23 июня, 01:52

Trudeau on Trump: ‘He Actually Does Listen’

The Canadian prime minister spoke about President Trump, Twitter and Nafta at an event in Toronto organized by The New York Times and the Rotman School of Management of the University of Toronto.

20 июня, 12:05

What a Changing NAFTA Could Mean for Doing Business in Mexico

Multinational companies operating in Mexico are facing a great deal of uncertainty. The possibility of a contentious renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has led to delayed or canceled investments in what has been one of Latin America’s most economically stable markets. Mexico’s fast-approaching July 2018 general election, of which the populist leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the current frontrunner, is further making the case for incremental investments by multinationals corporations. While consumer spending has proven resilient, with same-store retail sales rising 6% YOY in April, most multinational corporations are developing contingency plans to mitigate risks to their businesses and reassessing the country’s role in their global market portfolio and supply chains. Renegotiating NAFTA With the confirmation of Robert Lighthizer as United States trade representative, the long-delayed start of the formal process to begin renegotiation of NAFTA with Canada and Mexico can move forward. Indeed, on May 18 the Trump administration notified the U.S. Congress of its intent to begin the process. My firm, Frontier Strategy Group (FSG), expects that formal talks will begin in late August or early September, after the required 90-day waiting period. Both Canada and Mexico are hoping that adjustments to the trade agreement will deepen integration rather than promote protectionist economic policies; the Trump administration has provided conflicting signals over what kind of measures it will pursue. The Trump administration may no longer be advocating for 25% tariffs on manufacturing imports from Mexico, but it is likely to push hard for trade policies that would severely cripple the benefits offered for multinationals under the current trade agreement. For example, a key source of concern for some companies is more-restrictive rules of origin, which would reduce the amount of materials allowed to be used tariff-free for products traded to and from NAFTA member countries. This would amount to higher tariffs for inputs or final goods, which, though unlikely to reach the 25% tariff levels suggested during Trump’s campaign, would still raise costs for multinationals and further inhibit cross-national supply chain integration. However, new tariffs or more-restrictive rules of origin would likely only fall on a few industries, such as the automotive sector. More companies are concerned that their current supply chain would be more vulnerable to unilateral protectionist measures, such as lower standards for import safeguards. So, if a company manufactures products in Mexico to export to Canada and the U.S. (and vice versa) and can no longer take for granted continued and uninterrupted access to each other’s markets, it would need to radically rethink its localization and sourcing strategy. That would likely lead to closing factories, seeking new sources for inputs, and raising prices to mitigate higher production cuts. Multinationals are heavily pushing for either minor tweaking to the agreement or a modernization of NAFTA. Companies would like to see process improvements and better infrastructure at the border to reduce costs to import. Firms in innovation-driven industries, such as pharmaceuticals and medical devices, have long supported greater standardization across borders, with stronger intellectual property protections and enforcement of regulatory standards. Possibly the greatest improvement to the current trade agreement would come from incorporating industries that were relatively nascent when NAFTA was first negotiated (such as e-commerce and the digital industry), industries that were nationalized at the time (such as Mexico’s energy sector), or industries in the service sector (such as the insurance, accounting, and express delivery industries). These changes would allow for greater standardization across borders, allowing for better access to each other’s markets and increased trade. A revamped NAFTA that incorporates even some of these changes would make renegotiation a net plus for most multinationals — but this would be somewhat counter to the protectionist rhetoric that the Trump administration has previously voiced. An agreement that expands NAFTA is more likely to be negotiated and implemented relatively quickly, while an agreement that incorporates new protectionist measures, especially on discretionary import safeguards and tariffs, would likely be prolonged and contentious. FSG predicts that the renegotiation of NAFTA will incorporate at least some modernization measures mentioned before, particularly those that were previously negotiated under the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but that the Trump administration will push for new import controls, which would prolong a final agreement. The bottom line is, multinationals will not know what will be in the final agreement for years. Growing Populist Movement in Mexico Multinational executives are also paying attention to the country’s upcoming presidential elections. Mediocre growth, continued narco-related violence, and persistent corruption have crippled the electorate’s confidence in the status quo. The current government of Enrique Peña Nieto suffers from record-low approval ratings (link in Spanish), making the ruling party, the PRI, unlikely to retain the presidency. In mid-February FSG surveyed 25 Mexico country managers of multinationals and found that half of them expected the center-right’s candidate, which is likely to be either Margarita Zavala, the first lady during Felipe Calderon’s presidency (from 2006 to 2012), or Ricardo Anaya, the current president of center-right National Action Party (PAN), to win the next presidential election in Mexico. However, leftist candidate and former mayor of Mexico City Andrés Manuel López Obrador is considered the frontrunner in most recent polls, and his populist agenda is considered to be at least somewhat harmful by most of these same executives. Multinational executives fear that his populist programs (such as to implement massive increases in social spending while eschewing tax increases) would severely destabilize Mexico’s already fragile public finances, and that his opposition to the current administration’s structural reforms, particularly in energy and labor, will drive down investments in the market, cause further peso devaluations, and lead to greater confrontation with the Trump administration. FSG believes that López Obrador is the prohibitive favorite, but companies should avoid panicking over his election. If he wins with only a narrow victory, as seems likely, his administration would have a limited mandate for populist reforms that would severely damage foreign investment flows and public finances. His MORENA party remains unlikely to win a clear majority in Mexico’s Congress, which would force him to either moderate his expansionary fiscal policy or face perpetual legislative gridlock from a more conservative Congress. Mexico’s economic performance isn’t likely to significantly improve over the 2% YOY average of the last few decades, but this would not necessarily lead to a major economic downturn. Of course, a narrow victory for López Obrador is not guaranteed. If the center-right PAN candidate wins, whether it is Zavala or Anaya, it would likely help cement business’s confidence in the country’s economic and political stability. Navigating the Next Two Years in Mexico Many of the companies we work with that have operations in Mexico have taken up scenario planning to prepare for a range of potential economic and political changes in the country that could affect their businesses. Most Mexico country managers believe one of the following scenarios is likely: A long period of populist-driven uncertainty. In this case, prolonged and contentious negotiations over NAFTA and a close victory for López Obrador leaves executives confronting a long period of uncertainty, which will fuel depreciation of the Mexican peso and reduce investment. FSG expects that the Mexican peso would depreciate to 22 MXP/US$ over the next two years and that the economy would average growth of 1.8% YOY in 2017–2018. Multinationals anticipating this scenario have delayed major capital investments (including new factories and distribution centers), pursued a cautious approach to price increases (despite rising pressure on margins from a stronger dollar), and increased investments in monitoring customer spending patterns and on lobbying and regulatory support in Mexico and the U.S. The status quo persists. In this case, NAFTA negotiations remain undecided beyond Mexico’s 2018 elections, but the populist surge fails to materialize in the country and the center-right PAN narrowly defeats López Obrador. In this scenario the Mexican peso would likely only depreciate to 20.5 MXP/US$ over the next two years and the economy should grow closer to 2.1% YOY in 2017–2018. Executives who are planning against this scenario are continuing to urge corporate headquarters to invest in the Mexican market, while monitoring the evolution of trade talks and resourcing lobbying efforts in Mexico and the United States. Beyond these two scenarios, most multinationals want their teams to prepare for potential upside and downside scenarios: A pro-business turn. If NAFTA is renegotiated relatively quickly and largely avoids protectionist measures, this would help shore up investments in Mexico and boost prospects for a center-right PAN candidacy to win next year’s elections. This would help keep the peso at an average 19.5 MXP/US$, while economic growth could increase to an average of 2.7% YOY over the next two years. Under this scenario, multinationals would redouble on previously paused investments, increasing manufacturing and supply chain capacity in Mexico in particular and integrating shared services across the border. Furthermore, sales and profitability targets would need to be raised, especially if foreign exchange stability and a broad-based recovery in domestic demand were to occur. A tit-for-tat trade war. If negotiations break down over NAFTA, it would create severe disruptions for the Mexican economy and open the door for populism to take hold. Economic growth would fall to -1.5% YOY in 2017–2018, while the Mexican peso would fall to 25 MXP/US$ over the next two years. In this scenario, which most now deem highly unlikely, multinationals would require a full strategic reset for their short-term operating plans. Companies would have to reassess the weakness of their current supply chain structure, raise prices due to the higher cost of imported goods, and significantly reduce sales targets. If trade conflict persisted, multinationals would need to begin reducing head count and deprioritizing the Mexican market, not just as a manufacturing platform for the U.S. market but also as a priority market in their global portfolios.

19 июня, 13:00

What is the future of the Texas cowboy?

Being a cattleman is tough, and the job is changing fast: drones are now used, cowhands are hard to find, and Trump’s Nafta plans could harm exports. But bravery, hard work and solidarity still define this line of workIt’s spring roundup time here on Texas’s Spade ranch, when calves are branded and castrated and given their shots. In a time of big ranch conglomerates using drones and helicopters to move herds from above, the Spade cowboys pride themselves on being an old breed. They still gather their cattle by horseback, and they rope and drag their calves with tight, practiced loops. Their branding irons are still heated over a mesquite fire dug out of the red sand. And when it comes to their horses, each man can ride like a bandit. Continue reading...

19 июня, 12:09

Экспортная пошлина на нефть с июля вырастет до 80,9 долл. за тонну

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ с 1 июля 2017 г., согласно расчётам Минфина России, повысится на 0,9 долл. и составит 80,9 долл. за тонну.

17 июня, 02:58

Foreign Carmakers Invoke Reagan To Sway Trump On Trade

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― President Donald Trump’s promises to radically rewrite American trade policy helped him win in the industrial Midwest, dealing a blow to the elite, business-friendly consensus on the issue. But thus far, Trump’s protectionist talk has been more bark than bite ― and now big businesses with a key stake in the status quo are fighting to keep it that way.  Most recently, leading Asian and European carmakers, most of whom have large U.S. workforces, released a video advertisement touting their contributions to the U.S. economy that makes the case for keeping international trade barriers low. The minute-long ad by the Association of Global Automakers, a trade group that represents foreign car companies, shows footage of workers producing cars at facilities for several of the manufacturers ― Toyota, Hyundai, Kia, Honda, Volkswagon, Subaru and Nissan ― as a narrator extols the accomplishments of the auto manufacturers.   What’s more, it explicitly emulates the famous “Morning in America” television spot from former Republican President Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election campaign.  “It’s morning again ― for auto manufacturing in America,” the narrator begins, with the music from Reagan’s original ad in the background. The conceit of the ad is that “international” carmakers, as the Association of Global Automakers calls its member companies with headquarters in non-American locales, are now as integral a part of the American landscape as the suburban families in Reagan’s ad. The ad debuted during NBC’s “Meet the Press” earlier this month. The AGA declined to say how large of an ad buy it was making other than by noting it is the largest purchase in the trade group’s history. To accompany the ad, the trade group erected a website, HereForAmerica.com, which features more of the data demonstrating the importance of foreign automakers in the United States economy.  Foreign carmakers now produce 47 percent of the cars made in the United States ― up from 1 percent in 1979, according to the AGA’s analysis of its members’ data available on the new site. As a result, those German, Swedish, Japanese and South Korean companies with U.S. production plants directly employ 130,000 workers, the trade association states.  Any trade policies that result in more limited market access for foreign carmakers either directly or as a result of foreign retaliation for U.S. actions, the ad implies, will ultimately hurt Americans most. “Thanks to trade and open markets, our auto industry is stronger, prouder and better than ever before,” the video concludes as auto workers of diverse backgrounds raise the American flag up the pole at the foreign carmakers’ U.S. plants. “Why would we ever want to return to a time of less competition and less choice for consumers?” Notwithstanding foreign carmakers’ employment of American workers, their critics lament that they have largely fought off unionization efforts and deliberately located most of their facilities in the American South, where laws and political culture are more hostile to union formation. Unionized auto manufacturing jobs at American carmakers in the Midwest typically offer higher pay and safer working conditions than their non-union counterparts in the South.  When asked about this critique, John Bozzella, president of the Association of Global Automakers, said, “International auto manufacturers have invested billions in the United States to create high-paying, high-tech jobs all across the country.” In other respects, foreign carmakers are promoting a trade agenda that is similar to that of their American competitors: protecting access to international labor and supply chains in Mexico and Canada enabled by the North American Free Trade Agreement.  “NAFTA has been an absolute success story for the U.S. auto industry. There’s just no question about that,” Bozzella said. What is less clear is whether carmakers, domestic and foreign alike, support NAFTA for reasons that American workers would consider positive. Thanks to the 1994 accord, U.S.-based carmakers have easier access to Canadian and Mexican consumer markets, and parts suppliers elsewhere in North America. But in practice, it has also increased the offshoring of manufacturing jobs to Mexico, where labor costs and regulations are dramatically lower. Mexico exported $75 billion worth of vehicles to the U.S. in 2016, compared with $21 billion in vehicles the U.S. exported to Mexico, according to the office of the United States Trade Representative. Of course, experts disagree about the net employment effects of this bilateral trade, let alone its benefits for consumers. Some 17 percent of the value of Mexican automotive exports to the U.S. comes from components, chemicals and services that originated in the United States, according to an estimate by the economic think tank Bruegel. NAFTA has been an absolute success story for the U.S. auto industry. There’s just no question about that. John Bozzella, Association of Global Automakers The type of NAFTA reform that Bozzella said the AGA supports involves “modernization and revitalization,” suggesting it would back changes to the agreement removing remaining barriers to trade, particularly in areas of the economy that did not yet exist when NAFTA was brokered.  Representatives of two major industries that benefit from NAFTA ― corn growers and oil producers ― hammered home a similar message at a May 31 event on NAFTA reform featuring Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C. “It works very well for us right now. You can always strengthen an agreement,” said Chip Bowling, chairman of the National Corn Growers Association in remarks before Ross spoke. Ross did his best to reassure big business interests like Bowling’s ― that fear NAFTA reforms that could restrict access to foreign goods or markets ― that the Trump administration is prioritizing changes that are more likely to help them. Bringing NAFTA up to speed with the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would have created intellectual property protections and removed barriers to digital trade, would take precedence, Ross said. Mexico and Canada already agreed to the TPP, a 12-nation Pacific Rim trade agreement that Trump campaigned against and formally withdrew the U.S. from shortly after taking office. “There were a number of concessions to NAFTA countries made in connection with the TPP. And so we would view those as a starting point for discussion,” he said. That is likely a relief to pro-NAFTA elements of big business, but it is alarming to progressive trade skeptics who had hoped that trade reforms aimed at saving American jobs would be an area of common interest with the Trump administration. Job-saving reforms would entail making it harder to offshore production to Mexico, rather than extending its open trade channels to other sectors of the economy. Leading liberal experts like Lori Wallach, director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, are already concerned that the Trump administration is content to merely turbo-charge NAFTA under the guise of “repairing” it, all while hoping that voters eager for change of any kind won’t know the difference. “They’d take the pieces of TPP that Mexico, the U.S. and Canada had agreed to and enact them bit by bit through the NAFTA renegotiation,” Wallach warned in April. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

16 июня, 15:12

US-Mexico sugar deal brings relief but trade risks remain

Broader Nafta negotiation seen as a threat to cross-border deals

16 июня, 15:12

US-Mexico sugar deal brings relief but trade risks remain

Broader Nafta negotiation seen as a threat to cross-border deals

16 июня, 13:49

U.S. Exports to Mexico Fall as Uncertainty Over Nafta Lingers

Friction between the U.S. and Mexico over trade is starting to cut into sales for U.S. farmers and agricultural companies, adding uncertainty for an industry struggling with low commodity prices and excess supply.

16 июня, 09:57

На раздел Иерусалима потребуется согласие 80 депутатов

Согласно поправкам Беннета к Закону об Иерусалиме, столица также будет защищена от референдума

16 июня, 05:33

Make Mbonos Great Again

As I noted last week, Mexico was ground zero in 2016 due to Trump’s double-barreled promise to build “a beautiful wall” and rip up NAFTA. The panic set off by Trump’s rise to power last year only threw gas on the fire in Mexico, which was already burning due to the pain in EM and falling commodity prices.  In local rates, 10y TIIE blew out above 8% in January when Trump twitter-bombed the market--claiming he would rip up NAFTA, implement a border tax on auto imports, and pressure foreign car companies to build factories in the US rather than Mexico. Since mid-February, Trump has become a paper tiger for Mexican risk, and 10y TIIE has retraced nearly 100bps from the wides. The charts below show that rates are indeed lower, but mostly due to lower US rates and lower credit risk. A reasonable proxy for local rate/FX risk is 10y TIIE, less 10y US and 10y CDS. This spread is still roughly 75bps above mid-2017 levels, despite a reform agenda that has successfully plugged the fiscal gap left behind by the drop in oil prices and production. I believe local rates are lagging due to a combo of high inflation this year, residual reluctance of locals to move back into the nominal curve, and 2018 election risks--but given the full retracement of other Mexican assets, high real rates,  and the potential for an end to hikes or even rate cuts from Banxico, there is still good value in local nominal rates. 10y TIIE and 10y mex/us still much higher than pre-election......Despite full retracement in CDS--reforms are working, but local rates are lagging.… and despite a full retracement in MXN….which still screens cheap to EMFX on a REER basis Why has the Mex/US spread been so sticky? The big depreciation in MXN coincided with some local factors to cause a big spike in inflation. The central bank reacted by increasing the overnight rate to 6.75%, a rate reminiscent of the pre-GCF days.This aggressive hiking cycle has led to very high ex-ante real rates as the central bank seeks to anchor long-term inflation expectations around their 3% +/-1% target--yet breakevens imply no future reversal from current levels of real rates. Mudi25/mbono24 benchmark breakevens still at 3.8%Some would claim Banxico still has some wood to chop there with medium term inflation breakevens still at 3.8%. I see a medium-term breakeven of 3.5% to be a more reasonable inflation risk premium given the high real rate, institutional strength of Banxico and what is still priced into the front end--that leaves 20-30bps in upside in the nominal curve even if you don’t get any love out of lower real rates, which isn’t out of the question given trends in the US and oil. The long rates trade could also work if the central bank moves to reverse the tightening cycle in the near future. The big reversal in MXN has extinguished the risk that pass-through inflation will contaminate long-term inflation expectations, but nominal rates and breakevens are still pricing in some of that risk. Also, some of the exogenous factors that pushed inflation higher this year are one-offs that will reverse out next year (gas prices and mass transit hikes being the biggest culprits).  There is also a persistent output gap-- with still listless growth, a flat curve in the US, and a weakening USD, there aren’t many external factors to change that. The important point on this graph below is not only the negative output gap, but also the negative slope in the central bank’s forecast--That is a signal Banxico will cut rates aggressively if and when headline inflation or inflation projections revert to their target range.And that isn’t priced into the market now--the 1y1y fwd rate is flat to the overnight, despite easing cycles priced in elsewhere in EM. What’s next? Another 25bp hike at next week’s Banxico meeting looks baked in. The fundamentals argue that could be the end of the hiking cycle--usually that’s a good time to receive rates. Inflation will need to cooperate, but continued slack in the local labor market combined with trends in the US, China, MXN, and commodity prices are supportive of lower CPI figures ahead. More on this in future episodes.Depending on your global view, the three best expressions of the long Mex rates trade are: Receive 5-10yr TIIE or Buy mbono24 or higher; curve is flat but term premiums are attractive, buy CDS leg tactically as an AMLO hedgeReceive 10y mex/us spread in swapsReceive 10y mex/us spread and buy 10y CDS What are the risks? You know the drill: EM has had a great run, a reversal in US inflation could put the fed in (real) hiking mode, which would push local rates and inflation higher and MXN lowerNot to beat a dead horse but vol is in the gutter, which is a powderkeg. I wouldn’t hedge with MXN puts but continue to like the hedges noted last week, or selling COP, CLP or ZAR to lay off EM risk.Trump crawling out of his political grave before midterms or Muller drive a stake through his heart, and/or Trump setting fire to NAFTA in desperation.The biggest risk is Mexico’s presidential election--the left-wing populist Manuel Andres Lopez Obrador is leading polls, likely part of the reasons locals are hesitant to increase risk.  AMLO can, and will, cause more volatility in Mexican assets in the run up to the election in July 2018. The risk to the theme here is that the election will make Banxico slow to cut rates in  2018, even if financial conditions call for it. I’m comfortable with this risk because 1) AMLO’s relatively lackluster showing the the state elections last week, and 2) the political implosion of Trump negates AMLO’s biggest rallying cry.  That said, vol will return in 2018. Buying Mex CDS is the best hedge here.

15 июня, 21:00

2:00PM Water Cooler 6/15/2017

Today's Water Cooler: London meet-up, NAFTA, Ossoff v Handel, Belleville shooting, surveys v stats, industial production, state tax receipts, Five Horsemen, MMT

15 июня, 19:06

На $0,9 повысится экспортная пошлина на нефть в России с 1 июля

Льготная ставка пошлины остается для месторождений Восточной Сибири, каспийских месторождений и Приразломного месторождения

15 июня, 17:54

Build pipelines, not walls: American energy firms are enjoying a bonanza south of the border

Print section Print Rubric:  American energy firms enjoy a bonanza south of the border Print Headline:  Build pipelines, not walls Print Fly Title:  NAFTA and energy UK Only Article:  standard article Issue:  A landslide legislative victory would make France’s president a potent force Fly Title:  Build pipelines, not walls Location:  KU-MALOOB-ZAAP Main image:  Supply chain in action Supply chain in action A CHEMICAL engineer at Pemex, Mexico’s state-owned oil company, opens a tap atop a maritime platform in this offshore oilfield in the southern part of the Gulf of Mexico. She decants a jar of heavy Mexican crude that comes, hot to the touch, from 3,500 metres below the seabed. It looks like a succulent chocolate sauce, but smells like the back end of a cow. “Taste it,” she laughs. The crude that ...

15 июня, 13:13

Some Links

(Don Boudreaux) TweetArnold Kling argues that today’s economy – so very different from the one of the mid-20th century – is increasingly illegible with the concepts and tools of national income accounting.  A slice: The Department of Commerce hums along, producing a number for GDP. And many economists read a lot into the behavior of this number. […]

15 июня, 12:33

Пошлина на нефть в РФ выросла на 1% до $80,9 за т

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ повышается с 1 июля 2017 г. на $0,9 до $80,9 за тонну, сообщается на сайте Минфина.

15 июня, 12:33

Пошлина на нефть в РФ выросла на 1% до $80,9 за т

Экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ повышается с 1 июля 2017 г. на $0,9 до $80,9 за тонну, сообщается на сайте Минфина.

14 апреля 2015, 00:30

Хиллари – 2016. Что готовит России клан Клинтонов?

Хиллари Клинтон объявила о том, что будет участвовать в президентских выборах, которые пройдут в США в следующем году. Стоит ли России ожидать очередной "перезагрузки" или нового витка обострения отношений, в случае если Клинтон победит на выборах?

24 декабря 2013, 21:02

WikiLeaks: США принуждают членов будущего Тихоокеанского партнёрства заключить невыгодную сделку

Сайт WikiLeaks опубликовал два документа, из которых следует, что переговоры по созданию Тихоокеанского партнёрства близки к тупику. В них участвуют 12 стран: США, Япония, Мексика, Канада, Австралия, Малайзия, Чили, Сингапур, Перу, Вьетнам, Новая Зеландия и Бруней. Вместе они производят более 40% мирового ВВП, сообщает RT  На этой неделе представители перечисленных государств собрались в Сингапуре, чтобы обсудить будущее торговое соглашение. После встречи за закрытыми дверями министр торговли Японии Ясутоси Нисимура заявил прессе, что США, по его мнению, должны продемонстрировать «большую гибкость». Документы, обнародованные WikiLeaks, показывают, что стороны не могут договориться по 119 пунктам, в том числе и из-за жёсткой позиции США. Пока остаётся неясным, какая именно страна из двенадцати, участвующих в переговорах, допустила утечку. «США оказывает серьёзное давление, чтобы за эту неделю закрыть вопросы по максимально возможному количеству спорных пунктов», - утверждает один из опубликованных документов. «Одно из государств указывает, что до сих пор не было сделано никаких существенных шагов со стороны США, что и явилось причиной создавшейся ситуации». Администрация Обамы призвала все стороны, участвующие в переговорах, достичь соглашения до конца этого года. Однако споры вокруг ключевых вопросов могут привести в декабре к «частичному прекращению переговоров или даже к их срыву». Создание транстихоокеанского торгового партнерства в Вашингтоне расценивают в качестве приоритета. Подчёркивается, что оно даст импульс экономикам всех стран-участниц. Однако существует мнение, что некоторые пункты соглашения могут привести к подрыву национальных интересов ряда государств этого региона. Среди спорных вопросов, в частности, право транснациональных корпораций оспаривать законодательство отдельных стран в наднациональных трибуналах. Ранее Вашингтон уже одобрил такие полномочия в предыдущих торговых соглашениях, например, в рамках Североамериканской зоны свободной торговли. Однако условия, предлагаемые тихоокеанским партнёрством, могут предоставить транснациональным корпорациям возможность оспаривать более широкий круг законов. 30 августа 2013 года WikiLeaks опубликовал документ, который касается прав интеллектуальной собственности и вызывает сильнейшие опасения у гражданских активистов. Так, организация Electronic Frontier Foundation предупреждает, что меры, перечисленные в договоре, «нанесут огромный вред свободе слова, праву на частную жизнь, а также существенно снизят возможность для создания инноваций». «По сравнению с существующими многосторонними соглашениями, глава соглашения ТРР предлагает выдачу большего числа патентов, создание дополнительных прав собственности на данные, расширение защиты патентов и авторских прав, расширение привилегий правообладателей. Наказания для нарушителей становятся строже, - сказал эксперт Джеймс Лав из международной организации «Экология Знания». – Данный текст существенно урезает существующие исключения в международном законодательстве по авторскому праву. Он обсуждался секретно и мешает распространению знаний, развитию медицины и инновационной деятельности». Данное соглашение, в случае его принятия, может усилить и расширить власть фармацевтических монополий в том, что касается лекарств от рака, ВИЧ, сердечных заболеваний, в особенности – в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Монополисты получат беспрецедентные права, не допуская на рынок других производителей. Последующий рост цен на жизненно важные лекарства, возможно, затронет каждого. «Данная глава соглашения о ТРР – это рождественский подарок для крупнейших корпораций, - сообщил газете Sydney Morning Herald доктор Мэтью Риммер, эксперт по законодательству в сфере интеллектуальной собственности. – Голливуд, звукозаписывающие компании, такие IT-гиганты, как Microsoft, фармацевтические компании – все получат свой кусок пирога». 

30 апреля 2013, 18:11

Доктрина Обамы. Властелин двух колец

Сергей РоговДиректор Института США и Канады РАН, академик РАН, член РСМД12 февраля президент США Барак Обама выступил в Конгрессе с посланием «О положении страны», в котором изложил приоритеты американской политики на второй срок своего пребывания у власти. На мировой арене Обама намерен поставить США во главе двух гигантских экономических блоков – Трансатлантического и Транстихоокеанского. Это должно обеспечить Вашингтону лидерство в полицентрической системе международных отношений. Такая схема стала одним из ключевых компонентов «доктрины Обамы».Читать статью