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20 сентября, 12:25

Market Voice: Hurricane Harvey Casts No Gail Force on Oil Markets but the Electric Car Just Might

In addition to the devastating loss in life and property that Hurricane Harvey inflicted on the Gulf region, it also disrupted operations of several refineries creating shortages, particularly in gasoline

19 сентября, 09:24

Stocks move up, dollar dips as investors await Fed

Global stock markets edged higher on Tuesday and the dollar dipped as investors awaited signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on when it will hike interest rates again and start shrinking its balance sheet. Wall Street stocks gained slightly, with the Dow climbing to a fresh record, while an index of stocks across the globe also inched higher. The Fed is widely expected to announce on Wednesday that it will begin paring its bond holdings, with reductions likely to start in the coming months.

19 сентября, 07:27

Stocks move up, dollar dips as investors await Fed

Global stock markets edged higher on Tuesday and the dollar dipped as investors awaited signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve on when it will hike interest rates again and start shrinking its balance sheet. Wall Street stocks gained slightly, with the Dow climbing to a fresh record, while an index of stocks across the globe also inched higher. The Fed is widely expected to announce on Wednesday that it will begin paring its bond holdings, with reductions likely to start in the coming months.

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16 сентября, 00:17

New Highs Turn S&P 500 (SPY) Technicals Firmly Positive

From Larry McMillan: On Monday, September 11th (a date we will never forget), the S&P 500 (SPX) broke out to new all-time highs. There hasn’t been a lot of follow-through after that, but those highs have been retained. The importance… Read more ›

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13 сентября, 20:00

Remembering Steve Jobs: 3 Quotes for Investors

In honor of the opening of the Steve Jobs Theater and Apple's monumental event last night, we've decided to look at a few Jobs quotes in today's edition of Wednesday Wisdom. What can investors learn from this legendary tech industry leader? Check it out!

11 сентября, 16:28

Mint Partners: "What's Going On Is That Strong Hands Are Selling To Weak Hands"

Instead of the daily Bill Blain commentary (who today is caught in a deeply introspective debate whether or not climate change is or is not man-made) here are some observations from his Mint Partners stock-picking colleague, Steve Pervis, on where we are, and where the market may be going next. MARKET-TECHNICAL PICTURE   Friday was another one of those days when the market basically went nowhere. Therefore, as we have stated time and time again, when the market doesn’t move, the technical picture doesn’t change.    The conventional technical indicators remain mixed with fresh buy signals on the daily time frame and sell signals on the weekly time frame. Meanwhile, sentiment indicators remain as optimistic as ever.    While speaking about sentiment, we have received some push-back from readers who have questioned our comments about just how optimistic sentiment is. We can assure you, without a doubt, that it is very optimistic. But don’t just take our word for it.   We suggest you click on the following link that will take you to the Gallup web site. As you will see, investor optimism is at a 17 year high. In fact, at 68%, optimism about the stock market is tied for the highest percentage on record! Just take a thorough read and let us know what you think.     Otherwise, in case you haven’t noticed, the SPX remains firmly ensconced between 2400 and 2500 where it has been since late May. So it’s going on four months that the market has been stuck in this range. We believe what we are experiencing is distribution.   By that we mean strong hands are selling to weak hands. The strong hands represent the smart money while the weak hands represent the less informed money. We’ve seen this many times in the past.  And believe us, the smart money usually comes out on top.   As we write, the December S&P 500 future contract is up 11.80 points indicating the bulls are rarin’ to go. If the market stays at this level or higher going into the open in N.Y. we will likely see a big rally day.

11 августа, 16:37

What's Next For The VIX? RBC Explains

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Yesterday, as the VIX was setting up for one of its biggest one day jumps in history, we reminded readers just how massive the short-vol overhang was courtesy of the following chart from JPMorgan showing that the net Vega on VIX-related ETFs was at an all time high, suggesting that the risk of a vol-buying feedback loop was significant, because as VIX rose and markets fell, it would prompt more vol-shorters to cover, selling more risk assets in the process, leading to an even higher VIX, and so on. So what happens next to the VIX, and the vol-complex in general? Below we share the latest thoughts from RBC's head of cross-asset strategy, Charlie McElligott, who notes WITH THIS MUCH NEGATIVE CONVEXITY FROM A LOW ABSOLUTE LEVEL…IT SURE DIDN’T TAKE MUCH TO ‘SET IT OFF’: So this is awkward: the hedges pushed last week ‘hit’…but with the ‘wrong’ event-risk catalyst.   Yesterday was pure ‘comeuppance’ for the ‘short vol’ / ‘negative convexity’ crowd, off of the crescendo-ing cacophony of self-fulfilling expectations for a market ‘volatility event.’  I know this sounds ‘chicken or the egg,’ but I truly believe that it was this volatility positioning which was the core of the issue yesterday, and not wholesale buyside de-risking of underlying core portfolio longs as the catalyst.    Yes, crowded trades and themes came off sharply in some cases--but relatively-speaking, the index move was rather small (from a ratio of index % move vs move in vols), especially considering the nose-bleed levels of index returns YTD.  And client conversations certainly weren’t indicative of ‘panic’ or liquidation.  In fact, shorts were pressed and performed very well…this wasn’t ‘gross down’ stuff.   Under the hood, stretched positioning in SPX leading ‘Tech’ sector / ‘Growth’ factor was the ‘right’ place to look for asymmetry (S&P Tech’s worst day since the June 9th ‘Momentum Unwind,’ while 12m Growth market-neutral experienced its worst day since January 31st).  China Internet, Biotech, Internet, Semiconductors / Equip/ Semicaps, SMID Cap Software, Cloud were all areas which saw outsized underperformance…but of course coming from very strong YTD levels.  The impact of this ‘crowding’ (as I have been highlighting risk of ‘tipping’) was seen in my model equity L/S hedge fund model, which not surprisingly generated its 3rd worst drawdown of the year (following the May 17th and June 9th unwinds), but really just from longs due to still-high net exposure levels (shorts were pressed and did travel lower, offsetting the long losses).   But in this case, the ‘butterfly flapping its wings’ moment—beyond the aforementioned market ‘anticipation’ / almost ‘willing’ of a vol event, as ‘short volatility’ had crowded itself into a tight corner—actually came via the mounting geopolitical discomfort in the Korean Penninsula…and not an ‘interest rate volatility’ blast which I had predicated my thesis around.  Instead / conversely, the still relatively-tame FTQ-bid in fixed income has seen 10s push through 2.20 with bull-flattening in curves.     WHERE TO FROM HERE ON VOL TRICKLE-DOWN:   After the crazy move around the US equities open in VIX, it looked as if VIX hedges were likely later being monetized in the US session afternoon yesterday.  This makes sense, as we’ve become conditioned to shorter-and-shorter ‘half-lives’ of these ‘negative gamma’ bursts in recent years, because the Pavlovian response of ‘selling more vol into the squeezes’ has been rewarded with very handsome returns.   But the final hour and a half in the US cash equities trade again saw an acceleration of short convexity ‘stop-ins’ likely generated from the VIX ETP universe (leveraged and inverse VIX ETFs, in addition to dealer gamma), which had to buy a ton of futures to rebalance on account of the massive percentage change in spot.  It’s painfully clear that these products have contributed to a huge amount of ‘vega’ in the marketplace (driving large ‘feedback’ in both VIX futures AND SPX index options).  As mentioned earlier, VIX has again continued higher this morning. Indeed it did when this note was sent out just before 7am... However, following another disappointing CPI miss, the 5th in a row, the VIX has plunged as expectations of a December rate hike now been firmly off the table, sending the VIX sharply lower and futures in the green. McElligott's conclusion: It should be noted however that from a ‘vol control’ fund deleveraging perspective, we still aren’t likely to have seen heavy de-risking flows from the masses yet (many targets at 8 or 10), as SPX realized vol—even of the short-term 20d varietal—remains painfully low at 6.5.  So, in order to ‘trigger’ it would either require another violent jump in vol, or a few more days further in this 15-16-17 vols level to ‘drag up’ the trailing number. Which, of course, won't happen if the Swiss National Bank, BOJ... or Fed, ECB, and BOE for that matter, have anything to say about it.

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26 июня, 17:29

Running Out of Steam

Since SPX touched 2440 in early June, it has been trading sideways in a 30-point range which very much looks like distribution

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26 июня, 17:25

Does it matter if Government bonds are stronger than S&P 500?

  Stocks have done well this year and the past 90-days. Which would you rather have owned the past 90-days and Year to date, the S&P 500 or Bond fund ZROZ? Below looks at the performance of the S&P and ZROZ over the past 90-days. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Over the past 90-days, bond ETF ZROZ has nearly doubled the returns of the S&P 500. Despite the S&P doing well this year to date, ZROZ has done even better than the S&P 500, gaining around 3% more. Below looks at the Stock/Bond Ratio (SPX/ZROZ) over the past few years.   CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Does it matter that bonds are stronger than stocks? Do bond traders know something that stock traders don’t? Maybe it doesn’t matter until it matters applies to stock & bond performance of late! So far, the bond strength the past 90-days, doesn’t seem to matter to the stock market. If the stock/bond ratio would happen to keep heading south, in time I humbly feel it will matter and will send an important message, if it does. Full Disclosure- Premium Members have been long bonds since around Christmas of last year. .   This information is coming to you from Kimble Charting Solutions.  Home of the Power of the Pattern where we provide Concise, Timely and Actionable chart pattern analysis and commentary so in very little time you know the pattern at hand and action to take  Send us an email if you would like to see a sample or trial to our research   Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM Blog:  KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM/BLOG   Questions: Email [email protected] or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

22 июня, 16:30

CBOE Holdings, U.S. Steel, Amazon.com and Whole Foods Market highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

CBOE Holdings, U.S. Steel, Amazon.com and Whole Foods Market highlighted as Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day

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22 июня, 14:22

Bull of the Day: CBOE Holdings (CBOE)

Bull of the Day: CBOE Holdings (CBOE)

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20 июня, 10:23

The Uptrend Continues But Loses Momentum

Although SPX was more affected than the Dow (which closed at a new high on Friday) by the tech correction it, too, is expected to continue its uptrend for a while longer

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19 июня, 21:07

Quick Airpocket Ahead, Miners Look Good

The stock market is due for a sudden air pocket, likely from Tuesday to Thursday this week. My downside target is 2398 +/-. We are due for the 10 week low from April 13, 2017. The SPX is making an irregular abc type (y) wave top that is ...

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16 июня, 22:28

Second Half Stock Market Outlook

Learn about three ingredients that will help you outperform in whatever the rest of 2017 has in store for the market.

15 июня, 21:11

Trader: "The Downside Doesn't Get Interesting Until S&P Hits 2,400..."

"Keep It Simple Stupid," is the key lesson from Bloomberg's Richard Breslow note this morning as he conjures doves, snakes, hawks and starfish to make his point. Simply put, don't panic... yet. Here are the assets he's watching and levels to trade... Sometimes when you just can’t keep the story simple, it’s best to do so in your trading. The world is a complicated place and there’s great risk in trying to reduce all causality to one factor. There’s a tug of war going on and the rope resembles a starfish not a snake. Although I’d have to admit, a lot of what we’re witnessing has a distinctly reptilian aura about it.   So what are some of the things we need to factor in?   Chair Yellen was hawkish. Why various assets responded to her in the way they did is a story about them. And well worth considering. But it doesn’t change the underlying fact. Bonds being bid doesn’t mean they don’t believe her or we’re watching a different press conference than precious metals traders.   Other developed market central banks are looking for the opportunity to reduce monetary largesse. Even if they aren’t ready to make the move, and despite any protestations to the contrary, doing less not more is what they are strategizing about. This is going to keep the dollar knocking back and forth based on the latest news that grabs everyone’s attention for a news cycle.   Be mindful of taking USD/JPY’s struggle with reclaiming the 110 level as a risk-off move until after you hear what the BOJ has to say tonight.     Politics remains a messy business, even if it’s being cited less often as the global headwind that allows rates to stay forever low. And anyone who claims to know how this populism, saber-rattling and scandals will play out is fooling you as well as themselves. There just isn’t going to be an escape from headline surprises. But not all of these revelations are created equal nor their outcomes destined to fit your personal preferences.   You can talk breakout trades as long as you accept that we are in violent ranges with nothing trading at levels we haven’t seen before during the last year. Yet think about how great the emotional swings have been. Look for ranges both short and medium-term. It will save a lot of heartache.   Moving averages are great, but in this environment focus on the horizontal lines that emphasize no-go zones. How many times over the last few weeks does EUR/USD have to fail under 1.13 before we realize there really is something up there?     And if you really want to look at an asset that screams don’t get carried away, put up a gold chart.     Even oil warrants caution rather than full-speed ahead.   How many times have moves stopped in their tracks because disaster is the savory and carry the sweet? Breslow concludes with a 'simple' message for the day... ...two people said to me this morning that equities are getting killed. They’re down.   That’s about all that can be said at this point. We saw these prices at the end of last week.   The downside doesn’t get even remotely interesting until we break below 2400 in the SPX. Who knows, the day is young...

15 июня, 18:45

Межрыночный анализ. Посмотрим что происходит.

Сегодня интересный день. Вола подпрыгнула, а индекс ММВБ проколол минимумы с февраля прошлого года.  Чтобы загрузить свои межрыночные шаблоны, я захожу в Tradingview, и захожу в свои сохраненные шаблоны. Первый мой шаблон, это относительный аппетит к российскому риску. Отношение RSX/EEM показывает как российский индекс чувствует себя относительно развивающихся рынков: Отношение RSX/EEM резко выросло после выборов в США. Сейчас оно вернулось на нормальный уровень 2015 года. Аппетит к риску выраженный через JNK/TLT начал расходится с рублем до сегодняшнего дня. Эта дивергенция кстати могла дать опережающий сигнал на продажу рубля против доллара. Обычно рубль растет когда растет аппетит к риску, и соответственно растет индекс мусорных облигаций против трежерей (JNK/TLT). Но этот индекс под давлением и он же кстати вошел в дивергенцию с SPX. Это может ничего не значить, но может и значить, так как считается что рынок облигаций с опережением все таки идет к рынку акций. По моим наблюдениям валюта наша всегда с запаздыванием реагирует на тренды по сравнению с рынком акций. Поэтому возможно с некоторым лагом валюта все-таки последует наверх. Это моя личная субъективная гипотеза, являющаяся частью моей персональной инвест-стратегии. Тем не менее, у валюты есть свои отдельные факторы, такие как платежный баланс. Реально, баксорубль на дне, особенно если посмотреть на нефть в рублях: А какие еще интересные графики можно построить? Может что-то с участием российских ОФЗ?

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15 июня, 17:04

Stock/Bond ratio creating a historic peak again?

When it come to performance so far this year, would one be better off owning the S&P 500 or Long-Term Zero coupon bonds? Below compares the S&P 500 to Pimco’s Zero Coupon Bond ETF (ZROZ). So far this year, both have done well and pretty much have the same returns! CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio (SPX/ZROZ), using the two assets from above. The ratio in our humble opinion, could be creating an important pattern, that could impact stocks and bonds. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The ratio put in a high back in 2014 and when it broke support at (1), bonds out performed stocks by a large percentage for the next year. Moving forward to the past few months, the ratio could be creating a topping pattern (head & shoulders top) at the same highs at it hit in 2014, at line (2). A dual support test is in play at (3) above, that needs to hold to send a bullish message to the ratio and stocks. If support would give way at (3), it could be suggesting that bonds could out perform stocks for a period of time. The Power of the Pattern is of the opinion that what happens at (3), could send an important message about portfolio construction going forward.     Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM Blog:  KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM/BLOG   Questions: Email [email protected] or call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381                                          

14 июня, 17:00

CBOE Holdings (CBOE) Hits 52-Week High, Will it Rally Ahead?

Shares of CBOE Holdings, Inc. (CBOE) have been on an uptrend (gaining 3.6%) since the company announced an improvement in May volumes.

13 июня, 16:30

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet

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13 июня, 13:09

Market Turning Points - Tech Shakeout!

Friday’s spontaneous profit-taking in the overbought tech sector affected SPX more than it did the DJIA, because the former contains many more high flyers

26 февраля 2013, 17:00

США. Бюджетный секвестр. Подробности.

Итак, если Конгрессмены не договорятся до 1 марта 2013 г., то выглядеть американское бюджетное секвестирование на 2013 фин. год будет следующим образом.Общий объем автоматического сокращения госрасходов = -$85,4 млрд.Из них:- оборонная промышленность: -$42,7 млрд. - не связанные с оборонной промышленностью дискреционные расходы: -$27,6 млрд. - не связанные с оборонной промышленностью обязательные расходы: -$15 млрд.Здесь еще вопрос в мультипликативном эффекте, т.е. эти $85 млрд. на самом деле обернутся куда большими потерями для экономики.Если все останется как есть после 1 марта 2013 г., то на 2014 фин. год. госрасходы ужмут уже на $109 млрд. На текущий момент настроения по поводу достижения компромисса во властных структурах Вашингтона не очень оптимистичные:Как видно, наибольший удар при секвестре понесет оборонная промышленность. При этом, 40% из $42,7 млрд. урезаний расходов на оборонку в 2013 фин. году. приходятся на 1 марта, т.к. шесть месяцев секвестра (сентябрь-март) ужимаются в один.Сокращения госраходов также коснутся следующих отраслей:Так ведет себя SPX при упоминании слова "Sequester"....хотя надо отметить, что скорее движения рынка пытаются объяснить этим словом, т.е. сначала есть движение в SPX, а потом уже СМИ раздувают эту тему.Show must go on....