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Выбор редакции
28 апреля, 22:34

"Buy Low, Sell High" is a Lie

Before you call me a heretic, learn about my method for finding momentum stocks trading at discounted prices.

Выбор редакции
23 апреля, 20:21

Market Turning Points

SPX ended the week in a near-term neutral position as it probably awaits the result of the French election to decide on its next move. Whatever it turns out to be, the intermediate correction is still in force, and lower prices ...

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21 апреля, 21:59

4 Healthcare Megatrends for Investors

One sector combines the best of science and technology with our dreams for healthier and wealthier lives.

21 апреля, 18:10

When to Dump the Trump Bump?

When to Dump the Trump Bump? While US equity prices have declined over the past week, they are still up more than 10% since Trump was elected President. On the

20 апреля, 22:11

It's Goin' Down In The DM, Hit Me Up On The EM

Quick update on DM and EM divergence today. I know it has been a well-documented topic for the last few years, but wanted to point to people's attention again, as I feel like we are close to the precipice for a reversal.I'm sure Bloomberg has shown this chart in the past in its regularly scheduled programming. But digging into the fundamentals, things become even more eye opening.A quick look at fundamentals, obviously EM is cheap - I picked a few indices that generally people put in "EM" and "DM" buckets. For the most part, DM is expensive. For the most part, EM feels cheap. Valuation below - (by the way, Eurostoxx was used for Europe, FYI)I'm sure we've all seen US equity and growth divergence charts on Zerohedge.com. I wanted to dig deeper myself, to look at the differences between EM (MXEF as the proxy) vs DM (US/SPX as the proxy) in terms of growth vs equity performance.Despite EM outgrowing DM - the underperformance has been palpable.Please mind the gap. The divergence has been evident, yet it seems to be bottoming. I hate to bring everything back to Trump but I think that will be the catalyst. Remember from the last post, trades go in and out of favor. The EM trade has been out of favor for 7 years. The Trump trade has been 7 weeks. Both of which might be making a resurgence soon. Yo Gotti knows it's going down in the DM. But, but, but, but...Protectionism and other Trump stuff!Well, interestingly, after all the populist rhetoric, EM equities have actually outperformed DM in 2017 YTD.  EM currencies have been ripping as well against the dollar during the same period. Inflationary pressures can be good for EM exporters can temporarily soften any blows from protectionism.  Additionally, the potential lack of access to the US and other DM can lead to meaningful reform in emerging economies. The world runs on unintended consequences. Trump's actions can unintentionally manifest as incentives for EM to take on reforms that will drive wage growth, productivity growth and domestic consumption that ultimately leads to economic resilience. A number of EMs are in crisis/post-crisis mode, where their domestic issues are being aggressively addressed (Brazil, Turkey, Argentina, and Russia come to mind). Although I like most EMs, a caveat must be noted. There should be a distinction made between good and bad EMs. Zuma's debacle that is South Africa - bad EM. Real reform and progress made in Argentina - good EM.As always, good luck out there.

20 апреля, 18:02

Snap-On (SNA) Beats on Q1 Earnings, Organic Growth Strong

Snap-On's (SNA) first-quarter 2017 earnings and revenues trumped estimates.

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16 апреля, 14:53

Market Turning Points

After adhering to the scenario projected in the last letter, SPX may be ready to reverse course again with a rally in a downtrend which could retrace a minimum of 50% of the decline from 2378 to 2353 before resuming its downtrend.

Выбор редакции
14 апреля, 01:00

When a "Whisper" Becomes a Scream

If you know how to listen, you can find the signs that point to dramatic surprises...even in a tough earnings season.

13 апреля, 04:03

Earnings Roundup: Will 17Q1 be the S&P 500’s Best Qtr. in Over 5 Years?

The unofficial kickoff to the Q1 2017 earnings season is set for Apr. 13, 2017, when several of the Financials sector’s banks are expected to report results for the quarter.

13 апреля, 00:55

Industrials Rise to the Top: 5 Best Stocks in the Sector

We have picked five stocks from the industrial sector based on their favorable ranking, growth projections and impressive returns.

08 апреля, 10:42

Приготовьтесь к паникам и крахам: зловещие предупреждения от Bank Of America

Как объясняет Харнетт, катализатором бычьего ралли на рынках акций и ранках кредита с 2009 года выступила "революционная монетарная политика центральных банков”, которые, начиная с краха Lehman, "понизили процентные ставки 679 раз и купили финансовых активов на сумму $14,2 трлн.” Он вновь предупреждает, что центробанковская "супернова ликвидности” подходит к своему концу, как подходит к концу и "период чрезмерных доходов от акций и корпоративных облигаций, а также период подавленной волатильности.”

Выбор редакции
07 апреля, 21:57

A Wider Net Catches More Winners

Early trends are telling us which stocks will outperform in the next bull run, and Brian will show you how to capture as many of the outsized gainers as possible.

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07 апреля, 10:18

SPX and GDX in Perspective

Below are daily charts of the SP500 and the gold miners index ETF, GDX. Right now, it seems as though these two are trading inversely for the most part. Odds are we see a gap down Friday in the stock market and a gap up in GDX.

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05 апреля, 23:13

S&P 500 17Q1 Earnings Dashboard – Apr. 28

Click here to view the dashboard in detail. Last Update: April 28, 2017 Download the full S&P 500 Earnings Scorecard report here. S&P 500 Aggregate Estimates and Revisions First quarter earnings are expected

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05 апреля, 20:23

RBC On Today's "Remarkable" Market Move: "Suddenly Treasuries Can Not Sell Off"

With stocks blasting off the moment today's stellar ADP report hit (even if subsequent PMI and ISM soft data roundly refuted the highest surge in private payrolls in over two years), pushed higher by the momentum ignition in USDJPY, some traders have declared today the day the reflation trade has (again) come back. Perhaps, however as RBC's Charlie McElligott correctly points out, something sticks out: "conversations with a number of clients shows me that many have been recently debating internally on ‘throwing in the towel’ on the trade—especially after the brutal start to the week with the US rates rally.  That is what makes today’s move in US rates after the strong headline ADP print so remarkable and FURTHER anxiety-inducing for said ‘reflationistas.’  Treasuries suddenly cannot sell-off." And without both the 10Y - and crude - validating the move in stocks, it is only a matter of time before the anti-reflation trade takes hold in stocks. Here are some thoughts from RBC's McElligott  as to what may be causing today's persistent bid in the Treasury complex. RBC Big Picture: THINKING OUT LOUD #HOTTAKE: Crude +2.8% off WTD lows.  Breakevens ‘firming’ after their recent weakness.  Energy leading S&P sectors MTD / ‘value’ factor and cyclical ‘longs’ outperforming WTD in equities, while HY has led IG in credit over the same period.  US banks index BKX is +2.0% off its lows made Monday morning.  Booyah.  These are the things that the ‘reflationists’ have so desperately needed to see, as PNL from the trade in 2017 has been quite ugly relative to generic ‘index’ and / or ‘peer’ returns—whether for macro or ‘unconstrained’ funds.  In fact, conversations with a number of clients shows me that many have been recently debating internally on ‘throwing in the towel’ on the trade—especially after the brutal start to the week with the US rates rally. That is what makes today’s move in US rates after the strong headline ADP print so remarkable and FURTHER anxiety-inducing for said ‘reflationistas.’  Treasuries suddenly cannot sell-off. The ADP number should speak positively of course for potential upside in Friday’s NFP and thus, likely higher US rates (labor mkt impact on Fed hike trajectory)….yet on the day, TY is now FLAT (aided by an ISM non-manu which mean-reverted modestly lower on the headline print, as the ISM employment component printed weakest in 6m—although the ‘export orders’ index jumped to 62.5 from 57 prior and best since 2007, per RBC Econ Jacob Oubina).  So what is happening here?  I believe that the Asian buyers of USTs are back—especially the Japanese—in conjunction with the start of their new fiscal year.  Posit: they are ready to deploy cash after having significantly scaled-back activity over the past months into YE.  The year-end Yen repatriation flows are done with…so they are back ‘buying dollars’ as USTs look cheap, especially with hedging costs so low (as cross-currency basis has cheapened enormously since January) and USDJPY at year’s lows (USD assets attractive).    Makes some sense right?  New incremental buyer returns to market, especially after having missed a buying opportunity at the start of their fiscal year, as the rally forced them to miss the move yet again.  Back to ‘reflation’ though and the funds who’ve been ‘long it.’  With USTs currently unable to sell-off (admittedly aided by heavy US IG issuance as well, and what is I’m sure ongoing short-covers from ‘late-comers’ to the ‘short rates’ trade), it’s going to again be getting nervy from the PNL side.  IF these folks were to commence ‘capitulation,’ we’d likely see that ‘Maginot line’ at 2.30 level in 10s challenged and likely, broken.  Obviously a break lower in yields would then impact the cross-asset world, with a thematic “up in quality” move, with money rotating into defensives and out of ‘high beta.’  In credit, this is an IG +++ move with HY as source of funds.  In equities, this would only perpetuate the YTD trend of “into growth, out of value” / “out of cyclicals into seculars,” and also drive further strong performance in ‘low vol’ bond proxy sectors (Utes, Staples, REITS, Telcos). All of this said, I still wouldn’t be throwing in the towel on ‘reflation’ completely at this point, simply on account of the sudden ‘one-sidedness’ of the sentiment shift AWAY from ‘reflation’ over the course of the year (especially post the ACA repeal failure).  The two keys: oil and / or tax-policy ‘optionality.’  This is why I pushed the thematic ‘XLF upside / XLK downside’ trade earlier in the week, at the chance you get an upside surprise ‘trigger’ in either of the two x-factors.  This trade would look interesting too bc of the positioning ‘kicker,’ with so much crowded into ‘secular growth’ tech as a new ‘safe haven’ free of business cycle and Trump policy risk, while conversely, $$$ is tactically coming out of banks as rates reverse lower.  The key for ‘higher oil’ is to see the ‘rest of world’ inventory drawdown to ‘flow through’ to US.  Currently, that’s a nothing-done.  The good news though (as noted the other day here) is that WTI Cushing crack-spreads remain at year plus highs, showing strong demand for refined product like gasoline ahead of the Summer driving season.  And of course too, I believe the market is already in motion working to ‘price-in’ an OPEC extension, or even-better, larger inventories increase the likelihood for perhaps even DEEPER OPEC cuts which could get crude (and inflation expectations) again ‘going’—taking stocks higher, credit tighter and equity vol lower.  We’d then see a new ‘kicker’ as the crude-triggered inflation impulse YoY gets new ‘legs.’ Tax policy ‘optionality’ is a MUCH hazier dynamic…because just as the market began sniffing potential movement for VAT compromise, the White House stated that last night it was off the table.  Ugh.  Nonetheless, because it’s ‘growthy’ and ‘reflationary’ impact is so theoretically massive, very few are going to ‘short’ it with a desperate Trump and GOP likely to pull out all stops to get something done that WILL at the very-least lower rates from current effective levels. So now to the flipside: lower crude and NO tax policy movement.  This would almost certainly-drive the full ‘reflation liquidation,’ with rates seeing NEW LONGS (already being built per open interest breakdowns, but likely to then catch systematic / CTA buyers on the momentum of the rally) while too driving further money into ‘defensives’ and ‘secular growth’ stocks, which almost by themselves can keep the SPX at the index-level supported (think Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google and their embarrassingly high contribution to SPX index return YTD).  Energy, Financials, Materials and Industrials would be in a truly bad spot.  Add in concerns around the read on the state of the US auto industry (-4.0% in the past week) and you get a really bad sentiment swing.  And as per the nearly two-year macro factor regime, any swoon in ‘inflation expectations’ via 1) a move lower in crude and alongside 2) the impact of potential slowing of economic confidence (reversion of data as ‘fiscal policy / deregulation joy’ were to fade with ‘no news’ on taxes), it’s almost certain that FINALLY, stocks would see a repricing in risky-assets.  As for now though and as discussed with a colleague and client today, the ‘TINA’ regime remains: equities on a relative basis are perceived to be the most attractive vehicle to capture a view on ‘directionally better US economic’ trend and earnings growth—especially versus such distorted risk / reward in credit.

Выбор редакции
31 марта, 20:50

How Over-Valued Are Stocks?

Pay attention to history for clues about the peak of the bull market.

31 марта, 18:40

Eaton (ETN) Hits 52-Week High: What's Driving the Stock?

Eaton Corporation (ETN) hit a new 52-week high of $74.53 on Mar 30, before closing the trading session a tad lower at $74.20.

Выбор редакции
29 марта, 15:44

S

Приветствую всех своих читателей!                 Последние два дня рынок получил мощное импульсное движение обратно в зону от куда практически все начиналось и тут как говорится надо разобраться — это ретест пробитого вниз клина или все же ценник зайдет выше нивелировав все падение с прошлой среды и установит новый LH. От этого и зависит глубина последующего движения вниз.                 Посмотрим пару графиков с возможным сценарием. На первом как мы видим выше есть четыре подволны и сейчас как раз заканчивается четвертая, после чего пойдет движение вниз с целью около 2290-80, это дополнительно подтверждается и по ФИБО. Разумеется при условии, что вчерашний хай будет сегодня подтвержден и не переписан.                 Другой вариант разволновки рассчитывает, что уже есть 5 волн вниз и сейчас мы получим движение вверх, которое установит новый LH где-то на уровне 2380-82.                 При любом раскладе дальнейшее движение будет вниз. Только вот глубина его будет разной на мой взгляд. Если рынки двинутся вниз от текущих уровней то это будут цели 2290-80 в перспективе пары недель.                 Если же от 2380-82 то глубина коррекции будет больше и займет большее количество времени.                 Уровни сопротивлений: 2361, 2366, 2378-80                 Уровни поддержек: 2350-48, 2344-42, 2332, 2325-23, 2313, 2307, 2302                                   Всем удачных торгов. КСТАТИ, если сегодня будет еще один трендовый день вверх то на SPX будет свечная формация «Три индейца» да не даст мне соврать господин Гусев, который меня читает.                  Для желающих присоединиться к чату, координаты ниже.                  Итоги работы чата: январь +70 пунктов по ES, февраль + 48,75 по ES.                  Для связи:                 Whatsapp +792827944 ( ноль девять )                 skype: ivandashkov                 instagram: idashkov P.S. Вчера я заметил, что мои посты перестали выводить на главную, вне зависимости от того что они набирают нужное количество лайков. Тимофей Мартынов сказал мне, что дескать мои посты уводят людей с форума в какой-то чат, что не есть хорошо. На что я ему объяснил, что ни кого с сайта я не увожу, и ни кто не против общения внутри поста.  Но позвольте, если пост не выводят на главную, то с кем его обсуждать?. Новый раздел же на СЛ, который мне показал Тимофей не заменит чат ибо в нем не реально писать то, что я пишу в чате — скорость подачи информации будет бесполезной для читателей этой ветки. Кроме того теряется и смысл лично для меня. По этому или мы находим общий язык, или я как в прошлый раз ухожу с форума снова (последний раз это было на 1,5 года) и пусть контент создают околополитические пустобрехи. Просто я не вижу смысле создавать человеку контент, когда меня принижают в правах, хотя я не нарушаю правил форума.

Выбор редакции
28 марта, 09:01

Sell the Rumor and Buy the Fact

In terms of the stock market, this next advance should see our 2450 Fibonacci resonance target on the SP500 (SPX) hit, and then sold for all the reasons discussed in our last commentary; however, I will warn you again, this does not mean ...

Выбор редакции
27 марта, 19:24

JPM: "Until Market Abandons Hope For A Tax Deal, There Will Be No Significant Weakness"

Monday's session started off poorly, with one of the biggest pre-opening selloffs of 2017 on fears surrounding the implementation of Trump's fiscal agenda. Since then, however, the Friday gap has been almost filled as a new batch of "buy the dippers" came out and did what they have done so well over the past 8 years. Why the intraday bout of hope that this morning's low is as bad as it gets?  According to the intraday market update from JPM, the answer is simple: "the market isn’t abandoning hope of action on the tax front by any means and until that happens the SPX will struggle to sustain sig. weakness." The result: as shown in the chart below, the S&P is now just barely in the red, after being over 20 points lower earlier in the session. Below is the full intraday note from JPM's Adam Crisafull: Market update – it’s been a very quiet session so far. Stocks are obviously weak but flows are orderly and not particularly busy (and the major indices have bounced well off their opening lows). Recalibrating political expectations is the main reason for the softness as investors debate the timing and scope of a tax bill, although the market isn’t abandoning hope of action on the tax front by any means and until that happens the SPX will struggle to sustain significant weakness.   It seems like many are circling ~2300 as an approximate area of support (premised on the SPX’s ability to earn ~$133-135 in ’18 w/o anything happening in Washington) and thus sentiment isn’t alarmed or panicked.   One of the biggest problems for this tape is the lack of scheduled catalysts – there isn’t anything major on the calendar over the next few days and weeks (Mar jobs Fri 4/7, CQ1 earnings season beginning Thurs 4/13, etc.). Work is underway on a tax bill but it will likely be several weeks before even rough signs of a consensus begin to emerge in the press (and in the meantime a gov’t shutdown is possible at the end of Apr). At this point the SPX is down ~2.6% from its recent high (2400) and ~1.1% from where it stood before Trump made his address to Congress on 2/28 (2363). The index is still up ~4% YTD and ~9% from where it closed on 11/8 (2139).   * * * US sector trends – the weakest groups include banks (esp. regional banks), cap goods, autos, and steel while retail, healthcare, tech, and staples are outperforming. Within healthcare a lot of stocks levered to ACA are rallying following the demise of ACHA (HCA, UHS, CNC, etc.).   Retail is a notable bright spot as expectations for BATs fall further (BBY, SIG, DLTR, KSS, TGT, JWN, GPS, LB, etc., are all doing well). Some of the bond proxy groups bounced at the open although they have weakened from their morning highs. Most of the leading laggards within the SPX are either financial or material/industrial-related (FCX, MS, HBAN, CMA, SCHW, ZION, RF, etc.).

26 февраля 2013, 17:00

США. Бюджетный секвестр. Подробности.

Итак, если Конгрессмены не договорятся до 1 марта 2013 г., то выглядеть американское бюджетное секвестирование на 2013 фин. год будет следующим образом.Общий объем автоматического сокращения госрасходов = -$85,4 млрд.Из них:- оборонная промышленность: -$42,7 млрд. - не связанные с оборонной промышленностью дискреционные расходы: -$27,6 млрд. - не связанные с оборонной промышленностью обязательные расходы: -$15 млрд.Здесь еще вопрос в мультипликативном эффекте, т.е. эти $85 млрд. на самом деле обернутся куда большими потерями для экономики.Если все останется как есть после 1 марта 2013 г., то на 2014 фин. год. госрасходы ужмут уже на $109 млрд. На текущий момент настроения по поводу достижения компромисса во властных структурах Вашингтона не очень оптимистичные:Как видно, наибольший удар при секвестре понесет оборонная промышленность. При этом, 40% из $42,7 млрд. урезаний расходов на оборонку в 2013 фин. году. приходятся на 1 марта, т.к. шесть месяцев секвестра (сентябрь-март) ужимаются в один.Сокращения госраходов также коснутся следующих отраслей:Так ведет себя SPX при упоминании слова "Sequester"....хотя надо отметить, что скорее движения рынка пытаются объяснить этим словом, т.е. сначала есть движение в SPX, а потом уже СМИ раздувают эту тему.Show must go on....