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Выбор редакции
29 марта, 15:44

S

Приветствую всех своих читателей!                 Последние два дня рынок получил мощное импульсное движение обратно в зону от куда практически все начиналось и тут как говорится надо разобраться — это ретест пробитого вниз клина или все же ценник зайдет выше нивелировав все падение с прошлой среды и установит новый LH. От этого и зависит глубина последующего движения вниз.                 Посмотрим пару графиков с возможным сценарием. На первом как мы видим выше есть четыре подволны и сейчас как раз заканчивается четвертая, после чего пойдет движение вниз с целью около 2290-80, это дополнительно подтверждается и по ФИБО. Разумеется при условии, что вчерашний хай будет сегодня подтвержден и не переписан.                 Другой вариант разволновки рассчитывает, что уже есть 5 волн вниз и сейчас мы получим движение вверх, которое установит новый LH где-то на уровне 2380-82.                 При любом раскладе дальнейшее движение будет вниз. Только вот глубина его будет разной на мой взгляд. Если рынки двинутся вниз от текущих уровней то это будут цели 2290-80 в перспективе пары недель.                 Если же от 2380-82 то глубина коррекции будет больше и займет большее количество времени.                 Уровни сопротивлений: 2361, 2366, 2378-80                 Уровни поддержек: 2350-48, 2344-42, 2332, 2325-23, 2313, 2307, 2302                                   Всем удачных торгов. КСТАТИ, если сегодня будет еще один трендовый день вверх то на SPX будет свечная формация «Три индейца» да не даст мне соврать господин Гусев, который меня читает.                  Для желающих присоединиться к чату, координаты ниже.                  Итоги работы чата: январь +70 пунктов по ES, февраль + 48,75 по ES.                  Для связи:                 Whatsapp +792827944 ( ноль девять )                 skype: ivandashkov                 instagram: idashkov P.S. Вчера я заметил, что мои посты перестали выводить на главную, вне зависимости от того что они набирают нужное количество лайков. Тимофей Мартынов сказал мне, что дескать мои посты уводят людей с форума в какой-то чат, что не есть хорошо. На что я ему объяснил, что ни кого с сайта я не увожу, и ни кто не против общения внутри поста.  Но позвольте, если пост не выводят на главную, то с кем его обсуждать?. Новый раздел же на СЛ, который мне показал Тимофей не заменит чат ибо в нем не реально писать то, что я пишу в чате — скорость подачи информации будет бесполезной для читателей этой ветки. Кроме того теряется и смысл лично для меня. По этому или мы находим общий язык, или я как в прошлый раз ухожу с форума снова (последний раз это было на 1,5 года) и пусть контент создают околополитические пустобрехи. Просто я не вижу смысле создавать человеку контент, когда меня принижают в правах, хотя я не нарушаю правил форума.

Выбор редакции
28 марта, 09:01

Sell the Rumor and Buy the Fact

In terms of the stock market, this next advance should see our 2450 Fibonacci resonance target on the SP500 (SPX) hit, and then sold for all the reasons discussed in our last commentary; however, I will warn you again, this does not mean ...

Выбор редакции
27 марта, 19:24

JPM: "Until Market Abandons Hope For A Tax Deal, There Will Be No Significant Weakness"

Monday's session started off poorly, with one of the biggest pre-opening selloffs of 2017 on fears surrounding the implementation of Trump's fiscal agenda. Since then, however, the Friday gap has been almost filled as a new batch of "buy the dippers" came out and did what they have done so well over the past 8 years. Why the intraday bout of hope that this morning's low is as bad as it gets?  According to the intraday market update from JPM, the answer is simple: "the market isn’t abandoning hope of action on the tax front by any means and until that happens the SPX will struggle to sustain sig. weakness." The result: as shown in the chart below, the S&P is now just barely in the red, after being over 20 points lower earlier in the session. Below is the full intraday note from JPM's Adam Crisafull: Market update – it’s been a very quiet session so far. Stocks are obviously weak but flows are orderly and not particularly busy (and the major indices have bounced well off their opening lows). Recalibrating political expectations is the main reason for the softness as investors debate the timing and scope of a tax bill, although the market isn’t abandoning hope of action on the tax front by any means and until that happens the SPX will struggle to sustain significant weakness.   It seems like many are circling ~2300 as an approximate area of support (premised on the SPX’s ability to earn ~$133-135 in ’18 w/o anything happening in Washington) and thus sentiment isn’t alarmed or panicked.   One of the biggest problems for this tape is the lack of scheduled catalysts – there isn’t anything major on the calendar over the next few days and weeks (Mar jobs Fri 4/7, CQ1 earnings season beginning Thurs 4/13, etc.). Work is underway on a tax bill but it will likely be several weeks before even rough signs of a consensus begin to emerge in the press (and in the meantime a gov’t shutdown is possible at the end of Apr). At this point the SPX is down ~2.6% from its recent high (2400) and ~1.1% from where it stood before Trump made his address to Congress on 2/28 (2363). The index is still up ~4% YTD and ~9% from where it closed on 11/8 (2139).   * * * US sector trends – the weakest groups include banks (esp. regional banks), cap goods, autos, and steel while retail, healthcare, tech, and staples are outperforming. Within healthcare a lot of stocks levered to ACA are rallying following the demise of ACHA (HCA, UHS, CNC, etc.).   Retail is a notable bright spot as expectations for BATs fall further (BBY, SIG, DLTR, KSS, TGT, JWN, GPS, LB, etc., are all doing well). Some of the bond proxy groups bounced at the open although they have weakened from their morning highs. Most of the leading laggards within the SPX are either financial or material/industrial-related (FCX, MS, HBAN, CMA, SCHW, ZION, RF, etc.).

Выбор редакции
24 марта, 23:08

Master Your Emotions to Beat the Market

Learn how to overcome this common obstacle for consistent trading success.

Выбор редакции
22 марта, 18:08

Banks Stocks could underperform for years (Update)

90-days ago Joe Friday shared that if history was a guide, banks could under perform the broad market going forward. The chart below was shared on 12/23/16 (See Post Here). It highlighted that since the highs in 2007, when the Bank/SPY ratio became very over bought, banks lagged the broad market for a good while. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Since the highs in the financial crisis, each time banks have attempted to out perform the S&P and momentum was very high, banks struggled going forward and the broad market didn’t have tons to brag about. Below looks at the performance of the S&P, Banks (XLF) and Regional Banks (KRE), since the Joe Friday post on 12/23/16. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE The post election “reflation theme” needs the banks to do well going forward, keep up with the S&P or out performing it. If banks would continue to under perform or decline in price, it will raise questions if the reflation theme has peaked out. Really important what banks do going forward friends, keep a close eye on them! The reflation theme wants the Bank/SPX ratio (top chart) to breakout! If it would, positive price message for Banks and the bullish case for stocks.   Blog:  KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM/BLOG Get our daily research posts delivered to your inbox here Website: KIMBLECHARTINGSOLUTIONS.COM Questions:[email protected] call us toll free 877-721-7217 international 714-941-9381

22 марта, 16:30

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Lear, Michelin, Fiat Chrysler, SPX and Honda Motor

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Lear, Michelin, Fiat Chrysler, SPX and Honda Motor

21 марта, 20:05

Slump In Financials Sends Wall St. Lower

Wall Street fell sharply on Tuesday as investors worried that President Donald Trump will struggle to deliver promised tax cuts that propelled the market to record highs in recent months, with nervousness increasing ahead of a key healthcare vote. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were on track for their worst one-day percentage drops since Trump’s election victory in November. The S&P financial index dropped 2.43 percent and was on track for the biggest daily fall since June. That added to losses in the sector since the Federal Reserve last week raised interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled it would remain on a gradual pace of hikes, a less aggressive stance than some investors expected. Banks benefit from higher interest rates and their stocks are sensitive to changes in expectations of how quickly the Fed will change rates. Bank of America slumped 5.07 percent, the biggest drag on the S&P 500, while a 2.7 percent drop in Goldman Sachs pulled the Dow lower. “There was a feeling the Fed was going to possibly be more hawkish last week. That didn’t happen,” said Mark Kepner, managing director at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. “That takes a little out of the higher rates that the banks want.” Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries were last up 9/32 in price to yield 2.441 percent, the lowest yield since March 1. Republican party leaders aim to move controversial healthcare legislation to the House floor for debate as early as Thursday. But they can only afford to lose about 20 votes from Republican ranks, or risk the bill failing, since minority Democrats are united against it. With valuations stretched, investors see the Trump administration’s recent struggles to push through the healthcare overhaul as a sign he may also face setbacks delivering promised corporate tax cuts. Expectations of those tax cuts are a major reason for the 10-percent surge in the S&P 500 since Trump’s election in November. “Republicans should have prioritized tax reform ahead of healthcare reform. They’re coming across as a motley crew rather than a party that can get things done,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. The Russell 2000 index of smallcap stocks was down 2.03 percent, on pace for its worst day since September. The financial sector has been the best performing of the 11 major S&P sectors since Trump’s election, surging nearly 20 percent on his proposals to cut bank regulations and reduce taxes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.81 percent at 20,737.44 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.88 percent to 2,352.6, on track for its fourth down session. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.25 percent to 5,827.86. The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, jumped 10.3 percent. Investors have grown concerned about elevated valuations, with stocks hovering near record highs for most of the month. The S&P 500 is trading at about 18 times forward earnings estimates against the long-term average of 15, according to Thomson Reuters data. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.45-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 4.53-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 68 new lows. (Editing by Nick Zieminski) -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Выбор редакции
19 марта, 20:02

Market Turning Points

SPX started a correction after it reached the 2400 target. Until now, it was not certain if it wanted to continue to the 2410 extension before correcting. Friday’s action strongly implies that it is preparing to continue the corrective ...

Выбор редакции
17 марта, 21:46

Will You Be Part of the Next Tech Revolution?

Tech industries on the verge of their critical mass hold explosive profit potential for investors. Eric Dutram has more.

Выбор редакции
17 марта, 21:46

The Next World-Changing Industry is Taking Off Right Now

Tech industries on the verge of their critical mass hold explosive profit potential for investors. Eric Dutram has more.

14 марта, 08:14

Сентимент SP500, WTI и GOLD - Нефть и золото ждут топлива для движения

Date Smart Money Dumb Money SPX 2017-03-13 0.26 0.63 2373.47 2017-03-10 0.25 0.62 2372.6 2017-03-09 0.27 0.61 2364.87 2017-03-08 0.26 0.63 2362.98 2017-03-07 0.28 0.65 2368.39 2017-03-06 0.26 0.66 2375.31 2017-03-03 0.23 0.72 2383.12 2017-03-02 0.27 0.71 2381.92 2017-03-01 0.26 0.73 2395.96 2017-02-28 0.26 0.72 2363.64 Date CRUDE Risk Levels 2017-03-10 48.39 5 2017-03-09 49.28 5 2017-03-08 50.28 5 2017-03-07 53.14 5 2017-03-06 53.2 8 2017-03-03 53.33 7 2017-03-02 52.61 8 2017-03-01 53.83 8 2017-02-28 54.01 8 2017-02-27 54.05 8 Date GOLD Risk Levels 2017-03-13 1204.3 2 2017-03-10 1204.64 2 2017-03-09 1201.24 4 2017-03-08 1208.31 4 2017-03-07 1215.86 4 2017-03-06 1225.29 5 2017-03-03 1234.81 5 2017-03-02 1234.25 5 2017-03-01 1249.69 5 2017-02-28 1248.44 5 По акциями среднесрочно бычий сентимент, деньги пытаются повторно входить в акции. Краткосрочно сентимент нейтральный, ждём решения ФРС. По нефти сентимент нейтральный, падение нефти замедлилось, нефть чего-то ждёт. По золоту явно медвежий сентимент, но граница падения образовалось в районе 1200, стоит присмотреться к покупкам, стоп 1190-1200.

Выбор редакции
13 марта, 16:13

Elliott Wave Target: 2,700 SPX

Looking at the bull market advance since 2009, we can see at least two options for counting. The options are that wave 3 ended in May'15 (blue) or wave 3 is ongoing (green). The late 2015 decline certainly looks like a potential wave 4 ...

Выбор редакции
12 марта, 18:04

Market Turning Points

Filling the 2400 count has caused the expected profit-taking which sent SPX into a quick retracement of 45 points. This brought it to the trend line from 2084 which must be broken before we can extend the correction into something more intermediate.

Выбор редакции
10 марта, 21:36

Stock Investing Strategy When at All Time Highs

If you want to participate in the next round of new highs, then NOW is the time to develop a game plan. Jeremy Mullin will show you how.

Выбор редакции
08 марта, 09:22

Elliott Wave Analysis of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)

I have been monitoring this stock for while for an edge to the INDU/SPX. Back in Jan 2017 I was expecting at least a new high for wave [v] to end wave 3. Fast forward, not only has BRK.B made a new high for wave [v] of 3 ...

Выбор редакции
08 марта, 07:56

Сентимент SP500, WTI и GOLD - Нефть нейтральный сентимент!!!

Date Smart Money Dumb Money SPX 2017-03-07 0.28 0.65 2368.39 2017-03-06 0.26 0.66 2375.31 2017-03-03 0.23 0.72 2383.12 2017-03-02 0.27 0.71 2381.92 2017-03-01 0.26 0.73 2395.96 2017-02-28 0.26 0.72 2363.64 2017-02-27 0.27 0.73 2369.75 2017-02-24 0.32 0.71 2367.34 2017-02-23 0.32 0.73 2363.81 2017-02-22 0.32 0.72 2362.82 По акциям глупые деньги ушли под линию экстремума, если умные пройдут линию экстремума, то есть вероятность, что сейчас начало сильной коррекции. Date CRUDE Risk Levels 2017-03-07 52.79 5 2017-03-06 53.2 8 2017-03-03 53.33 7 2017-03-02 52.61 8 2017-03-01 53.83 8 2017-02-28 54.01 8 2017-02-27 54.05 8 2017-02-24 53.99 8 2017-02-23 54.45 8 2017-02-22 53.59 8 Нефть впервые за 3 месяца заняло нейтральный сентимент, да не просто, а резко с 8 уровня на 5. Это серьёзный признак того, что цена на нефть может просесть. Date GOLD Risk Levels 2017-03-07 1215.86 4 2017-03-06 1225.29 5 2017-03-03 1234.81 5 2017-03-02 1234.25 5 2017-03-01 1249.69 5 2017-02-28 1248.44 5 2017-02-27 1252.73 5 2017-02-24 1257.19 3 2017-02-23 1249.56 3 2017-02-22 1237.44 3 Золото заняло медвежью позицию и цена падает. --- Поздравляю с 8 марта, женщины! :)

Выбор редакции
07 марта, 17:40

Jeff Saut Asks "What Do Insider-Sellers Know That We Don't Know?"

Via Jeff Saut of Raymond James, Andrew and I are at the 38th Annual Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference in Orlando, where there will be some 1,000 portfolio managers and approximately 300 presenting companies. We will be seeing companies’ CEOs, CFOs, COOs, etc. Interestingly, such corporate insiders sold $7.8 billion of their companies’ stock in February, which was the most in roughly six years. What do they know that we don’t know? Maybe they know that the Daily Sentiment Survey of Futures Traders shows a 92% Bulls reading. In the three times the reading has been that high since 2011 it has led to declines of 7% (2/11), 8% (5/13), and 3% (11/13). Also of note is that late last week the number of stocks making new 52-week highs on the NYSE collapsed by some 80%. Then there are the bullish sentiment figures that are at danger levels. All of this continues to leave us in a cautionary stance despite the fact that stance has been wrong for three weeks. An important point to watch, however, is the upside gap in the charts created by last Wednesday’s “Moon Shot.” Usually such gaps are filled within three sessions, which would be today. That single-point number to watch is 2363.64 on the SPX. That “gap” was not filled on Friday. This morning the SPX preopening futures are off 7 points at 5:00 a.m. as North Korea launches four missiles, one of which is capable of reaching the U.S., and DJT’s escalating war on the Deep State, the intelligence community, and now BHO. We think the equity markets are at an inflection point. The next few sessions should tell if this is the case.

Выбор редакции
07 марта, 10:18

Market Turning Points

SPX has reached its primary objective of 2400 and pulled back. There is a 2410 adjunct which could still be reached if the index can regain its upside momentum starting Monday. The daily indicators have still not given a sell signal ...

Выбор редакции
07 марта, 09:34

SPX Elliott Wave View: Wave 4 Started

Short term Elliott Wave view in SPX suggests that the rally from 1/23 low is unfolding as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulse structure where Minor wave 1 ended at 2301, Minor wave 2 ended at 2267, and Minor wave 3 ended at 2400.98.

06 марта, 17:14

CBOE Holdings (CBOE) Reports Increase in February Volumes

CBOE Holdings, Inc. (CBOE) recently announced that its average daily volume (ADV) for February has increased 16% year over year to 5.4 million contracts.

26 февраля 2013, 17:00

США. Бюджетный секвестр. Подробности.

Итак, если Конгрессмены не договорятся до 1 марта 2013 г., то выглядеть американское бюджетное секвестирование на 2013 фин. год будет следующим образом.Общий объем автоматического сокращения госрасходов = -$85,4 млрд.Из них:- оборонная промышленность: -$42,7 млрд. - не связанные с оборонной промышленностью дискреционные расходы: -$27,6 млрд. - не связанные с оборонной промышленностью обязательные расходы: -$15 млрд.Здесь еще вопрос в мультипликативном эффекте, т.е. эти $85 млрд. на самом деле обернутся куда большими потерями для экономики.Если все останется как есть после 1 марта 2013 г., то на 2014 фин. год. госрасходы ужмут уже на $109 млрд. На текущий момент настроения по поводу достижения компромисса во властных структурах Вашингтона не очень оптимистичные:Как видно, наибольший удар при секвестре понесет оборонная промышленность. При этом, 40% из $42,7 млрд. урезаний расходов на оборонку в 2013 фин. году. приходятся на 1 марта, т.к. шесть месяцев секвестра (сентябрь-март) ужимаются в один.Сокращения госраходов также коснутся следующих отраслей:Так ведет себя SPX при упоминании слова "Sequester"....хотя надо отметить, что скорее движения рынка пытаются объяснить этим словом, т.е. сначала есть движение в SPX, а потом уже СМИ раздувают эту тему.Show must go on....