Standard Life
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06 марта, 22:38

FCA quizzes investment groups over Carillion sales

Standard Life Aberdeen among those called in for interviews by watchdog

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26 февраля, 16:59

Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-insurance, and Welfare -- by Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella, Gonzalo Paz Pardo

Earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with heterogenous agents. This holds for individual-pre-tax and household-post-tax earnings and across administrative (Social Security Administration) and survey (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) data. We study the implications of two household-post-tax earnings processes in a standard life-cycle model: the canonical earnings process (that includes a persistent and a transitory shock) and a rich earnings dynamics process (that allows for age-dependence of moments, non-normality, and nonlinearity in previous earnings and age). Allowing for richer earnings dynamics implies a substantially better fit of the evolution of the cross-sectional consumption inequality over the life cycle and of the individual-level degree of consumption insurance against persistent earnings shocks. Richer earnings dynamics also imply lower welfare costs of earnings risk, but, as the canonical earnings process, do not generate enough concentration at the upper tail of the wealth distribution.

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23 февраля, 16:36

Who Wins From Standard Life Aberdeen-Phoenix Deal

Standard Life Aberdeen thinks shedding its insurance arm will unlock value. But what is left behind is an asset manager with high costs and investor outflows. Both need fixing, fast.

23 февраля, 16:34

Frontrunning: February 23

China seizes control of Anbang Insurance as chairman prosecuted (Reuters) How Deal-Hungry Anbang Went From Waldorf to Woe (BBG) Anbang and the Financialization of China’s Economy (WSJ) Trump’s Stance on Gun Laws Raises Pressure on Congress (WSJ) Chance of halting Brexit now close to 50:50, says leading campaigner (Reuters) May’s Cabinet Backs the Brexit Plan the EU Is Poised to Reject (BBG) VIX Funds Face Fresh Scrutiny From U.S. Regulators (BBG) ‘There was a mistake made’: No. 2 FBI official addresses criticism over fumbled tip on Nikolas Cruz (WaPo) How Tesla and Google Jets Could Enrich a Money-Losing Gold Miner (BBG) Trump to announce new sanctions against North Korea as South prepares for talks (Reuters) Walmart’s Big Bet on Home Delivery Hasn’t Paid Off Yet (BBG) Wall Street May Be Rethinking Its Relationship With Guns (BBG) Numbers starting to add up for Tesla trucks (Reuters) When ‘Married, Filing Separately’ Lowers Your Tax Bill (WSJ) Turkish forces shell convoy headed to Syria's Afrin region (Reuters) Watch Wall Street Analysts Lose Their Mind Over Free Candy (BBG) Global watchdog to put Pakistan back on terrorist financing watchlist (Reuters) Trump calls meeting on biofuels policy after refiner bankruptcy (Reuters) General Mills to buy pet food maker Blue Buffalo for $8 billion (BBG) Figure skating: Zagitova gives OAR first Pyeongchang gold (Reuters) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - China's insurance regulatory agency Friday took control of hard-charging, acquisitive Anbang Insurance Group, saying the action is needed to avoid a collapse of the firm following suspected illegal activity and the downfall of its once-highflying chairman. on.wsj.com/2GESTaa - Securities regulators plan to pare back Obama-era requirements that would require mutual funds to tell shareholders about large holdings of hard-to-sell assets, in what would be a significant concession to the industry. on.wsj.com/2GF3Gkj - Dina Powell, who until recently served as a top national-security adviser in the White House, is talking to Goldman Sachs Group Inc about returning to the firm. on.wsj.com/2GEdmf7 - President Donald Trump's calls for changes to gun laws in the wake of last week's Florida school shooting push Congress toward a new politically fraught debate just months before the midterm elections. on.wsj.com/2GD2m1w - Airbnb Inc looking to solidify sales ahead of an initial public offering expected as soon as next year, is adding more hotels to its site, along with a loyalty program and new tiers of listings that include luxury and more budget-friendly offerings. on.wsj.com/2GF4oOv   FT Members of parliament were critical of senior partners at KPMG and Deloitte in a hearing on Thursday for their work for collapsed outsourcing firm Carillion Plc. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit inner cabinet broke up following talks that lasted for eight hours on Thursday with claims from Brexiters that Britain was on track to make a clean break with the European Union. Channel 4 has been given a March 12 deadline to present a plan to move out of London, in the absence of which the government will intervene, according to people familiar with the talks.   NYT - After a barrage of customer complaints this week, the First National Bank of Omaha said on Thursday that it would withdraw its National Rifle Association-branded Visa credit card. "Customer feedback has caused us to review our relationship with the N.R.A.," Kevin C. Langin, a bank spokesman, said in a statement. nyti.ms/2BNIIAW - President Donald Trump on Thursday enthusiastically embraced a National Rifle Association position to arm highly trained teachers to fortify schools against mass shootings like the one last week. Trump, who said the armed teachers should receive extra pay as an incentive, promoted his idea as demands for stronger gun control intensified across the country. nyti.ms/2Gz61NR - The Chinese government said on Friday it had seized control of Anbang Insurance Group, the troubled Chinese company that owns the Waldorf Astoria hotel and other marquee properties around the world, and it had charged the company's former chairman with economic crimes. nyti.ms/2CDoWEL - Returns for college and university endowments in the United States for the 2017 fiscal year are in, and while they averaged a respectable 12.2 percent for the year, over the last decade they have underperformed funds offering a simple 60-40 or 70-30 stock-fixed income allocation. nyti.ms/2CDUH0H   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Ontario's real estate regulatory body, the Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO), is raising serious concerns about whether brokerages should be allowed to facilitate transactions in cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin. tgam.ca/2HBTH0A ** New housing taxes in the B.C. NDP's provincial budget have left municipal officials in the Okanagan confused and worried about the impact on their region, which has some cities - but not others - designated for both levies. tgam.ca/2HEZ8Mo ** Export Development Canada says it is facing "enormous" risk of "serious and potentially irremediable harm" because the controversial Gupta family is refusing to return a Bombardier Inc luxury jet that could be used in criminal activity. tgam.ca/2ok9QQl NATIONAL POST ** Defence department bureaucrats rejected a plan to outfit the navy's new supply ship with high-tech guns needed for its protection because they wanted to save money, officials with a Quebec shipyard say. bit.ly/2EXKW2n   Britain The Times - EU citizens who arrive in Britain during the post-Brexit transition period will be allowed to stay permanently under a U-turn planned by Prime Minister Theresa May. bit.ly/2HEyanV - Euro-zone rate setters have accused Washington of trying to talk down the dollar and start a currency war, in a rare attack from the European Central Bank that comes after the U.S. Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, said that a weak dollar was good for the U.S. economy. bit.ly/2HGpVb1 The Guardian - Carillion Plc’s former finance director considered putting cash into the firm’s pension deficit a “waste of money”, according to the minutes of a meeting written by the pension scheme trustees. - Men working for Barclays Plc's international division got paid bonuses that were more than double those of their female colleagues last year, with far fewer women occupying senior roles, the bank's 2017 gender pay gap report shows. bit.ly/2HDmlyo The Telegraph - Tech giants could face sweeping new taxes in the UK as the Treasury is considering taking a share of their revenues, with politicians claiming the current level of payments to the Exchequer is not fair. bit.ly/2HDTNER - Southern Rail operator Go-Ahead Group Plc will bid to run the contract again after its chief executive said his company had achieved everything asked of it by the government. bit.ly/2HFQTQi Sky News - British Gas owner Centrica Plc said it will shed 4,000 jobs by 2020 following a big fall in operating profits. bit.ly/2HGtjmf - The chairman of Standard Life Aberdeen Plc is to step down within two years of helping to create one of Britain's biggest fund managers in an 11 billion pound ($15.35 billion)merger. bit.ly/2HDG1lP The Independent Millions of Sky TV and broadband customers are set to pay more from April as the telecoms giant introduces a hike in prices, but can avoid doing so if they leave outside of the minimum term of their contracts – penalty free. ind.pn/2HEBn6X

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23 февраля, 16:12

Standard Life Aberdeen продала свое подразделение страхования фирме Phoenix Group

Британская компания Standard Life Aberdeen договорилась о продаже своего подразделения страхования фирме Phoenix Group. Стоит отметить, что стоимость соглашения составила 3,24 млрд фунтов стерлингов ($4,5 млрд). Сообщается, что в рамках сделки Standard Life Aberdeen, созданная в прошлом году путем слияния Standard Life и Aberdeen Asset Management, получит 2,3 млрд фунтов наличными и 19,9% акций Phoenix. Кроме того, Standard Life Aberdeen сообщила о том, что выплатит своим акционерам годовые дивиденды в размере 21,3 пенса на акцию, что на 7,5% выше, чем годом ранее.

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23 февраля, 16:07

Standard Life Aberdeen продала свое подразделение страхования фирме Phoenix Group

Британская компания Standard Life Aberdeen договорилась о продаже своего подразделения страхования фирме Phoenix Group. Стоит отметить, что стоимость соглашения составила 3,24 млрд фунтов стерлингов ($4,5 млрд). Сообщается, что в рамках сделки Standard Life Aberdeen, созданная в прошлом году путем слияния Standard Life и Aberdeen Asset Management, получит 2,3 млрд фунтов наличными и 19,9% акций Phoenix. Кроме того, Standard Life Aberdeen сообщила о том, что выплатит своим акционерам годовые дивиденды в размере 21,3 пенса на акцию, что на 7,5% выше, чем годом ранее.

23 февраля, 15:00

US Futures Hold To Gains In Nervous, Jittery Session Following Anbang Blowup

After a second consecutive disappointing cash close in the day session, in which futures spiked at the open only to close at the lows, we may be set for day 3 as S&P index futures again point to a higher open after Asian stocks gained despite some mixed trading in Europe. Will they once again fade what is set to be a 150 point higher open in the Dow and if so, will we finally see selling next week? What is most surprising about the overnight session is how little attention the market paid the collapse and bailout of China's $315 billion mega conglomerate and offshore M&A titan, insurer Anbang Insurance, which as we reported last night was effectively nationalized in the most high profile Chinese blowup in history. A quick recap for those who missed it, via BBG: When New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel was sold for $1.95 billion in 2014, it shot the Chinese buyer - Anbang Insurance Group Co. - and its chairman Wu Xiaohui to international prominence. That was the first deal in a $13.4 billion acquisition spree that lifted Anbang’s profile while raising questions about its ownership and financing. Those questions only deepened after Wu was detained last year by Chinese authorities investigating the firm’s acquisitions funding, market manipulation by insurers and unspecified “economic crimes.” Now, Wu is being prosecuted and China’s insurance regulator is taking over the company. And yet, despite this critical development, which effectively confirms that China's conglomerates are insolvent, the Shanghai Composite closed in the green and S&P futures are well well bid. Commenting on the market's bizarre reaction, Stock-market gains in China and Hong Kong today provide a fairly revealing insight into the market's view of Xi Jinping's policies. Gone are the days when something like the seizure of insurer Anbang would rattle investors, when every yuan fixing was highly anticipated and when fears of leverage, inflated property prices or military activity in the South China Sea were at the back of everyone's minds. Now, something like Anbang is being seen as a positive. When I talk about China with investors these days, the perspective is a lot more positive. The belt and road initiative is viewed favorably, as are the efforts to get debt under control. Maybe... or maybe China's halting the local VIX yesterday was an indication that something big was coming. And what better way to prevent panic from spreading than blocking the one indicator measuring panic. Although Bloomberg's point is noted: in China, there was no panic; maybe that's because in China there is also no longer a market? * * * In any case, back to the rest of the world, where the Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower as declines in car makers offset gains in telecom shares. n. terms of sector specific moves, telecoms are the clear outperformer with BT Group (BT/A LN) shares at the top of the FSTE 100 following a positive broker upgrade at Berenberg. The biggest story in the UK equity space comes from RBS (-4.5%) who are one of the notable laggards in the FSTE 100 as a return to profit for the Co. was not enough to soothe investor concerns over restructuring costs and a lack of clarity from the DoJ investigation. Other notable movers include Valeo (-9.5%), IAG (-4.7%), Swiss Re (+1.8%) and Pearson (+1.1%) post-earnings, while Standard Life Aberdeen (+2.2%) have been granted some reprieve after offloading their insurance unit to Phoenix (+5.4%). Asia was decidedly more bullish, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising 1%, underpinned by gains in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney and Seoul equity markets. The Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) edged higher with the gains led by defensive stocks with investors seemingly content to shrug off the notion of a more aggressive Fed unwinding stimulus more rapidly than expected. Chinese markets had been positive for much of the session with the Hang Seng (+1%), while the Shanghai Comp (+0.6%) had a somewhat choppy session. JGB yields dipped overnight, with the curve modestly flatter. As noted above, US equity futures seemed to forget Thursday's pitiful close and spiked ahead of the European open, only to fade most of the gains: the E-mini was up +7 at last check, but back to bottom of overnight range, as European equity markets led lower. It seems one piece of bad news today and the house of cards could topple for the 3rd consecutive day. Indeed, as Bloomberg notes markets have been creeping into risk-off mode across the board; sentiment not helped by a sudden GBP clash crash cited to incorrect trade value. Elsewhere, credit spreads continue widen, iTraxx Crossover back within range of widest levels seen during VIX-related volatility. USD holds small gains; apart from sharp GBP move, most pairs stay in tight range. SEK weaker after Riksbank minutes highlight inflation worries. Yields on Treasury 10-year notes fell, though were still near their highest since 2014, while those on German bunds, the benchmark for European debt, dropped to the lowest since January, while the common currency slipped. The dollar came under pressure following the Tokyo fix, in a repeat of Thursday’s price action. The greenback’s correlation with U.S. yields seems to be back, as Treasuries extended recent gains with the 10-year yield steadying around 2.9%. Volumes were below recent averages in the majors, with unwinds of short-term positions in typical Friday fashion. In bunds, flows spiked after futures broke the 159 threshold. European stock markets traded mixed and commodities retreated. In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen a mild pullback from yesterday’s post-DoE surge, albeit in close proximity to yesterday’s best levels. Energy newsflow remains light with traders awaiting today’s Baker Hughes release which has recently seen a trend of climbing rig counts. In metals markets, gold prices are marginally softer alongside the firmer USD and remains on track for its worst weekly performance since late last year. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures staged a rebound overnight as traders eye a potential pick-up in demand next week as Chinese participants fully return to market. US is said to announce new sanctions on North Korea later today, according to sources. Federal Reserve releases semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. Fed officials John Williams, Bill Dudley and Eric Rosengren speak. European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester participate in panel discussion. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,718.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.02% to 380.42 MSCI Asia Pacific up 1% to 177.79 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 1.1% to 582.45 Nikkei up 0.7% to 21,892.78 Topix up 0.8% to 1,760.53 Hang Seng Index up 1% to 31,267.17 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,289.02 Sensex up 1% to 34,149.05 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 5,999.79 Kospi up 1.5% to 2,451.52 German 10Y yield fell 2.5 bps to 0.681% Euro down 0.2% to $1.2312 Brent Futures down 0.5% to $66.07/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 1.805% Spanish 10Y yield rose 7.6 bps to 1.594% Brent Futures down 0.5% to $66.07/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,328.59 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 89.85 Top Overnight News China Seizes Anbang, Charges Dealmaking Founder With Fraud; Billions of Dollars of Anbang Assets That Could Go on the Block U.S. regulators are scrutinizing this month’s implosion of investments that track stock-market turmoil, including whether wrongdoing contributed to steep losses for VIX exchange-traded products offered by Credit Suisse Group AG and other firms, several people familiar with the matter said The Trump administration plans to announce on Friday what is said to be the largest package of sanctions against North Korea, Reuters says, citing a senior govt official it didn’t identify The Trump administration’s policies will raise U.S. wages without causing broader inflation, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in an interview, brushing aside signs that investors are growing nervous about rising prices Japan’s key inflation gauge stalled at 0.9%, highlighting the challenge ahead for BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda as he starts another five-year term. The European Union is set to oppose turning Theresa May’s pledge to avoid a border in the Irish Sea after Brexit into a legal guarantee, according to a diplomat familiar with the matter; Prime Minister Theresa May gathered her top ministers for an eight-hour session to get them to back her Brexit strategy, as the European Commission preempted the outcome by saying that what it’s heard of her plan won’t work. Barnaby Joyce quit as Australia’s deputy prime minister after having an extramarital affair with his former media adviser. President Xi Jinping will convene a Communist Party meeting within days to select China’s next government. ECB’s Smets says the events we’ve seen in the past few weeks are unlikely to affect the economic fundamentals, which are sound, on condition political leaders stay the course and continue to enact policies that are adequate for their own economies U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won the backing of her divided Brexit “war cabinet” to ask for an ambitious trade deal with the European Union after a marathon eight-hour meeting at her country house, but the EU isn’t buying it Asian equities closed the week on a positive note as major bourses traded in the green amid the uptick in crude prices. ASX 200 (+0.8%) had been buoyed by energy and material names, moving within closing just shy of 6,000. Miners were led by BHP (+1.5%) and South 32 (+5%), while oil prices rose throughout the US session after the latest DoE crude inventory data showed US oil output had dropped. Elsewhere, the Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) edged higher with the gains led by defensive stocks with investors seemingly content to shrug off the notion of a more aggressive Fed unwinding stimulus more rapidly than expected. Chinese markets had been positive for much of the session with the Hang Seng (+1%), while the Shanghai Comp (+0.6%) had a somewhat choppy session. JGB yields dipped overnight, with the curve modestly flatter.  Japanese inflation data: Japanese CPI, Ex Food and Energy YY (Jan) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%) Japanese CPI, Core Nationwide YY (Jan) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.9%) Japanese CPI, Overall Nationwide (Jan) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.0%); Highest since March 2015 Top Asian News As Volatility Returns, This Is How Emerging Markets Stack Up Hong Kong Moves Closer to Dual-Class Shares With New Rules India Is Said to Plan Asking PNB to Pay Banks for Jeweler Fraud European bourses are trading on the back foot (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) despite calls for a slightly firmer open. In terms of sector specific moves, telecoms are the clear outperformer with BT Group (BT/A LN) shares at the top of the FSTE 100 following a positive broker upgrade at Berenberg. However, the biggest story in the UK equity space comes from RBS (-4.5%) who are one of the notable laggards in the FSTE 100 as a return to profit for the Co. was not enough to soothe investor concerns over restructuring costs and a lack of clarity from the DoJ investigation. Other notable movers include Valeo (-9.5%), IAG (-4.7%), Swiss Re (+1.8%) and Pearson (+1.1%) post-earnings, while Standard Life Aberdeen (+2.2%) have been granted some reprieve after offloading their insurance unit to Phoenix (+5.4%). Top European News May’s Cabinet Backs the Brexit Plan the EU Is Poised to Reject RBS’s Female Employees Paid 37% Less on Average Than Men Riksbank Inflation Caution Sends Krona to 15-Month Low Bund Futures Jump in Large Volumes After Breaking Key Threshold What to Watch for in Gadgets, Deals From the Biggest Mobile Show In FX, the DXY has slipped further below the 90.000 level, and it remains a very close call whether the Greenback can continue its recent ‘winning’ run to make it 5 out of 5 trading days and a first complete week of gains this year. Technically, the index needs to close above 90.500-600, so quite a bit above the upper end of the 90.060-89.750 range thus far, and much may depend on the overall tone that emerges from the latest round of Fed rhetoric via a slew of speakers and Powell’s first semi-annual monetary policy report. However, Usd/Jpy still looks pivotal for the Dollar’s overall direction with the pair now heavy around 107.00 having failed to rebound to 108.00 at the height of its rebound from 105.55 lows. Note also, a large 107.00 option expiry strike for next Monday (1.6 bn) may act like an anchor. Eur/Usd straddles 1.2300, with no reaction to final Eurozone CPI and Cable continues to be drawn towards 1.4000 while holding in above solid support ahead of 1.3800 on Brexit-related weakness (similarly 0.8800 is a pivot in Eur/Gbp). In terms of crosses, Eur/Sek has been a mover in wake of cautious and dovish Riksbank minutes as several Board members registered concerns about weak inflation at the January policy meeting, and the pair has eclipsed the 10.0333 peak  from 2017, with the previous year’s high at 10.0833 next on the charts. Back to G10s, the Nzd gained little lasting traction from better NZ retail sales overnight, with a breakdown revealing discretionary items providing a major boost, and Aud/Nzd stop-buying also working against the Kiwi. In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures have seen a mild pullback from yesterday’s post-DoE surge, albeit in close proximity to yesterday’s best levels. Energy newsflow remains light with traders awaiting today’s Baker Hughes release which has recently seen a trend of climbing rig counts. In metals markets, gold prices are marginally softer alongside the firmer USD and remains on track for its worst weekly performance since late last year. Elsewhere, Chinese steel futures staged a rebound overnight as traders eye a potential pick-up in demand next week as Chinese participants fully return to market. Looking at the day ahead, there is the final revisions to Q4 GDP in Germany and also the final revisions to January CPI in the Euro area. The Fed's Williams, Mester and Dudley are due to speak, along with the ECB's Coeure. Away from that, EU leaders are scheduled to hold an informal meeting in Brussels to discuss the composition of the European Parliament and also the bloc's next budget. Finally the Fed is expected to publish its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. US Event Calendar Nothing major scheduled 10:15am: Fed’s Dudley and Rosengren Speak on Panel on Fed Balance Sheet 11am: Fed Releases February 2018 Monetary Policy Report to Congress 1:30pm: ECB’s Coeure, Fed’s Mester Participate in Panel in New York 3:40pm: Fed’s Williams Speaks on Outlook for U.S. Economy DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap. Markets lacked a bit of leadership yesterday as the S&P 500 couldn’t hang onto 1% gains for the second day but just about ended higher (+0.1%). It appears the initial gains were spurred by a rebound in the WTI oil price (+1.77%) and the Fed’s Bullard’s more dovish words on the rates outlook. He told CNBC that raising rates too quickly could restrict economic growth and that market expectations of four rate hikes this year would be “priced to perfection”. Further he added “100bp (rate increase) in 2018 seems a lot to me” while there was a “way to go” in terms of sustainable upward move on inflation. Within the S&P, gains were led by the real estate, energy and materials sectors with partial offsets from financials. The VIX fell for the second day to 18.72 (-6.5%). Staying in the US, Matt Luzzetti and others in the US economics team published an update to DB’s analysis that looks at the parallels between the current period and the 1960s in the US. This is work we’ve often referred to in our work. Similar to today, inflation was subdued for a protracted period during the first half of the 1960s even as the unemployment rate fell sharply. Inflation then jumped in 1966. Recent developments – most importantly a replay of the 1960s fiscal expansion – have increased the similarities with the 1960s episode. Their updated analysis suggests that while we are unlikely to see a spike in inflation as large as the 1960s, the risks around DB’s inflation view are likely titled to the upside. As such, we would not downplay the possibility that core inflation hits 2.5% or above in the coming years, exceeding the last cycle’s peak and rising to the highest level since the early 1990s. Turning back to Europe and the latest ECB minutes. They broadly reiterated a wait and see approach. On rates, the minutes indicated “changes in communication were generally seen to be premature” and that “monetary policy would continue to develop….with a view to avoiding abruptly or disorderly adjustments at a later stage”. On QE, “some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias…but it was concluded that such adjustment was premature”. On FX, “there was broad agreement among members that the recent volatility in…..the Euro was a source of uncertainty that required monitoring”. Looking ahead, “the language pertaining to the monetary policy stance could be revisited early this year as part of the regular assessment at the forthcoming policy meetings”. Over in government bonds, core 10y bonds yields were 1-3bp lower while peripherals modestly underperformed (1-3bp higher), in part reversing the prior day’s gains. 10y Bunds and Gilts yields fell 1.6bp and 0.9bp respectively while UST 10y also fell 2.9bp. Elsewhere, the US treasury sold $29bn of 7 year notes at a yield of 2.839% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.49x (vs. 2.73x previous). This morning in Asia, markets are in positive territory with the Kospi (+1.23%), Hang Seng (+0.89%), Nikkei (+0.71%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.02%) all up as we type. Datawise, Japan’s January core CPI (ex-food) was above expectations at 0.9% yoy (vs. 0.8%) but flat for the third consecutive month. Staying with inflation, the US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has discussed prices overnight and believes rising US wage gains may not cause broader inflation. He noted that “you can have wage inflation and not necessarily have inflation concerns in general”. Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. Key European bourses weakened modestly, with the Stoxx 600 (-0.20%), DAX (-0.07%) and FTSE (-0.40%) all lower. In FX, the US dollar index fell for the first time in five days (-0.28%), while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.37% and 0.27% respectively. Over reiterated that three rate hikes seems appropriate but his views could change if there was greater evidence of rising inflation or employment. Elsewhere, he noted “the Fed’s policy is accommodative, but the path to neutral may be flatter and not as far away as some think”. Finally, the Fed’s Quarles noted “with a strong labour market and likely only temporary softness in inflation, I view it as appropriate that monetary policy should continue to be gradually normalized.” Back in Europe and ahead of the Italian election on 4thMarch, the EC President Juncker warned “we have to brace ourselves for the worst scenario….(which) could be no operational government” and that he was “more worried by the result of Italian election than the result of the vote by SPD members” in Germany. Later on in a statement, he did softened his message and noted “whatever the outcome, I’m confident that we’ll have a government that makes sure that Italy remains a central player in Europe”. Staying in politics, the Times reported that the UK may allow EU citizens who arrives during the Brexit transition period to stay permanently. Elsewhere, before PM May outlines her vision for a post-Brexit trade deal, a presentation on the European Commission website has reiterated the potential difficulties she faces with the stance her cabinet seem to be moving towards. It noted the “UK’s views on regulatory issues in the future relationship including the three basket approach are not compatible with the principles in the EC guidelines”. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the January Conference board leading index was above market at 1% (vs. 0.7% expected) with large positive contributions from the firming of the ISM new orders index and building permits in the month. The Kansas Fed manufacturing index was slightly below at 17 (vs. 18 expected). Elsewhere, the weekly continuing claims (1,875k vs. 1,935k expected) and initial jobless claims (222k vs. 230k expected) were both below expectations, with the latter near a c44 year low and adds to the view that the labour market is tightening further. In Germany, the February IFO Business Climate Index fell to 115.4 from its record high in January (117.6). The drop was driven by a fall in business current assessment (126.3 vs. 127 expected) and the expectations index (105.4 vs. 107.9 expected). Overall DB’s Marc Schattenberg believes a pull-back was not surprising and the sentiment surveys are still at very high levels, signaling a continued strong economic expansion in Q1. In France, the February manufacturing confidence (112 vs. 113 expected) and business confidence (109 vs. 110 expected) were both softer than expectations. The final reading of France’s January CPI was unrevised at 1.5% yoy, while Italy’s print was revised 0.1ppt higher to 1.2% yoy. Finally, the UK’s 4Q GDP was revised down 0.1ppt to 0.4% qoq and 1.4% yoy (vs 1.5% expected). Looking at the day ahead, there is the final revisions to Q4 GDP in Germany and also the final revisions to January CPI in the Euro area. The Fed's Williams, Mester and Dudley are due to speak, along with the ECB's Coeure. Away from that, EU leaders are scheduled to hold an informal meeting in Brussels to discuss the composition of the European Parliament and also the bloc's next budget. Finally the Fed is expected to publish its semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

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23 февраля, 12:39

Standard Life Aberdeen sells insurance unit for £3.2bn

Cash-and-stock sale to Phoenix Group turns SLA into pure play asset manager

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23 февраля, 11:04

Standard Life Aberdeen sells insurance business for over £3bn

Standard Life Aberdeen reaches a deal with Phoenix Group to sell one of the UK's oldest insurance companies.

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23 февраля, 10:30

Standard Life Aberdeen to quit insurance business in £3.2bn deal

The sale to Phoenix Group marks the merged company’s move away from its roots

Выбор редакции
23 февраля, 10:30

Standard Life Aberdeen to quit insurance business in £3.2bn deal

The sale to Phoenix Group marks the merged company’s move away from its roots

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22 февраля, 23:37

Standard Life Aberdeen to quit insurance in £3bn deal

Asset manager poised for sale of unit to Phoenix

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19 февраля, 09:01

Carillion shareholders considered suing after profit warning

Major investor Kiltearn has sent evidence to committees holding inquiry into contractor’s collapseA major investment firm that owned 10% of Carillion has told MPs it considered suing the the collapsed government contractor over suspicions that directors knew it was in difficulty earlier than they admitted in public.Kiltearn Partners says it “considered participation in civil legal action against Carillion with a view to recovering a proportion of its clients’ crystallised losses” following its profits warning last summer. Continue reading...

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17 февраля, 01:47

Week in Review, February 17

Standard Life Aberdeen hit by client loss; GKN and Credit Suisse also in the news

16 февраля, 19:12

Best of Lex: your weekly round-up

Uber, Baidu, Sky, Barclays, Standard Life Aberdeen, Credit Suisse and South Africa

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15 февраля, 18:08

Standard Life Aberdeen: the one that got away

Pessimism deepens over merger as Lloyds casts off