The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation's (BK) fourth-quarter 2016 adjusted earnings per share of 77 cents increased 13% year over year.
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: UMB Financial, Hancock Holding, State Street, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon
The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: UMB Financial, Hancock Holding, State Street, Citigroup and Bank of New York Mellon
Zacks.com featured highlights: Morgan Stanley, UMB Financial, Wintrust Financial, First Midwest Bancorp and State Street
Zacks.com featured highlights: Morgan Stanley, UMB Financial, Wintrust Financial, First Midwest Bancorp and State Street
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Picking the right stocks not only help to counter short-term market challenges but bode well for long-term investors- Nordstrom Inc. (JWN), Morgan Stanley (MS), UMB Financial Corporation (UMBF), First Midwest Bancorp Inc. (FMBI)
Американские фондовые индексы выросли по итогам торгов во вторник вслед за ралли в Азии и Европе на фоне позитивных статданных, однако к концу сессии подъем замедлился, поскольку повышение цен на нефть сменилось резким падением.
Submitted by Danielle DiMartino Booth via Money Strong, It never pays to be an “afterthought.” That was the word Jackie Gleason used to characterize the proposed reprisal of ‘Minnesota Fats’ in The Color of Money, 1986’s sequel to The Hustler. Chances are Paul Newman himself, who had at least 36 script conferences with the screenwriter, didn’t take offense to Gleason’s rebuff. “We desperately wanted the character to return,” Newman told the New York Times of Gleason’s ‘Fats,’ “but every time we put him in, it seemed like we were trying to glue an arm on a man and make it stick.” Under the brilliant direction of Martin Scorsese, Newman would go on to win an Oscar for his role in Color. Still, as a whole, the sequel simply couldn’t stand up to the 1961 original. Hence the irony of Newman’s Oscar, which critics suggested was in belated recognition of his original performance as an ace pool player in The Hustler. In his young, glory days, Newman so deeply penetrated his characters’ roles that he literally vanished into them. His brilliance as an actor shined brightest in one scene when Eddie lost to Fats; rather than hostility or animus, his fascinated adoration for his idol was unabashedly on display, reflected in his bright eyes and amused expression. Now that’s Hollywood. As for Wall Street, it’s recent performance has also laid the drama on thick and in perfect form as stocks pierce record highs. The investor community, the Street’s audience, couldn’t agree more. According to the latest survey from the Conference Board, retail investors’ enthusiasm for the stock market’s prospects is at the highest level since February 2007. A stroll down memory lane reveals that similar readings on the giddiness gauge were contrarian in nature, aka sell signals. That is, unless you’re referring to 1996 as a step-off point. In that case, today’s positive parallels suggest stocks’ 2017 sequel could best the original rally that culminated in the S&P 500 peaking in 2001. What’s driving the train to stock market stardom? The singular theme since Trump was elected has been happiness bordering on euphoria. The overall December Conference Board survey hit a 15-year high. This echoed the most recent University of Michigan December survey, which hit a 12-year high. But it’s not just your average Joe on the street, as in Main Street. Small business confidence also witnessed its biggest one-month surge since 2009, while regional manufacturing surveys have uniformly topped forecasts. Based on an average of five regional Fed surveys, Morgan Stanley raised to a two-year high its expectations for the upcoming release of the national manufacturing survey. The question is, can the economic fundamentals Trump the (over?)-heated hope? For that to happen, every bit of optimism has to be substantiated. And that supremely sublime stage has yet to be set. The entirety of the Conference Board spike was due to expectations; current conditions, which remain high, actually fell on the month. Similarly, small business owners’ expectations for future sales rose smartly, which runs counter to actual sales, hiring and capital expenditures declining last month. And finally, one red flag that’s popped up in multiple places centers on the jobs market. While consumers’ expectations for income growth rose to the highest level in a decade, their perceptions of jobs being ‘plentiful,’ fell while those lamenting jobs were “hard to get” rose, affirming the recent drift upwards in jobless claims. Some of the regional Fed surveys also showed employment had unexpectedly hit reverse gear, contrary to respondents’ effusive outlook for the future. Most surprising, perhaps, were the losses reported in Texas’ manufacturing sector in November; they defy the recent uptick in rig counts. Renmac’s chief economist Neil Dutta figures the number of operating rigs has surged 120 percent over the third quarter average. That puts the current number of drilling wells at the highest since January; oil maintaining its price gains implies more to come, reflected in Texas manufacturers’ outlook, which hit its highest level in 12 years. Presumably job growth will follow, according to the script, that is, and not just in the Lone Star State. Presumably. Continuing along the contented motif, homebuilders are downright ecstatic – their optimism is ringing in the new year at the highest level since 2005. As per the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB): “Builders are hopeful that President-elect Trump will follow through on his pledge to cut burdensome regulations that are harming small businesses and housing affordability. This is particularly important given that a recent NAHB study shows that regulatory costs for home building have increased 29 percent in the past five years.” Potential homebuyers are also buying in to the potential for falling prices; the NAHB sub-index that measures Prospective Buyers Traffic registered its first print in expansionary territory since August 2005. There’s a good chance the cheery potential homebuyers overlap with the record number of consumers (18 percent) who the University of Michigan reported “spontaneously mentioned the expected favorable impact of Trump’s policies on the economy.” This figure is twice as high as its prior peak, recorded in 1981 as Reagan was taking office. The teensiest of caveats before continuing – all of this rhapsody is not free; it’s been more than reflected in higher interest rates which have notably manifested themselves in the highest mortgage rates since the bond market threw a taper tantrum in the summer of 2013. Not even Yale economist Robert Shiller can predict which way the winds will blow, good or bad, as he told Bloomberg News: “I don’t know how people react to rising mortgage rates. One thought is they want to lock in right now. And that’s why we’ve had good home sales recently. And it might continue as mortgage rates rise. This thing could feed a boom. I’m not saying it will.” Talk about measured! Paradoxically, households’ inflation expectations looking out five years over the horizon sank to their lowest level on record in data going back to 1979, even as businesses whine about the highest input costs in years. If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. Policymakers and politicians have a heck of a lot to make good on when Congress takes to the Hill and the new administration sets foot in the White House next month. We can all hope that breaking the gridlock and freeing businesses to conduct business the old-fashioned American way will unleash animal spirits among employers. Job creation, of a meaningful, high-income-generating sort, would thus beget consumption. This in turn would spur the best sort of economic growth we can hope for, and at the same time reflect businesses carrying through on their stated confidence with actions, by expanding their payrolls, inducing a lovely, virtuous cycle that feeds on itself. How economically endearing indeed. Would you be surprised to discover there are a few skeptics who doubt Goldilocks is primed to whip out those golden locks, validating, well, just about everyone’s cockiness? Though other perpendiculars have already been posited, it’s fair to interject a friendly reminder that we are not in 1982, the last time stocks were trading at a single-digit price-to-earnings multiple and Baby Boomers were less than half their age. Is it relevant that productivity growth was running at eight times its current pace with the saving rate double where it is today and household debt to income half of where it is? Wait…won’t rising rig counts cap oil prices? And does it matter that Uncle Sam’s debt load has grown to 105 percent of GDP compared to 30 percent back then? Does this country and its inhabitants technically have to have a pot that’s growing in size to piss in? Not according to the measured volatility on the stock market, which is near the lowest in recorded history. We have nothing to worry about and that’s that. Hence the perplexing pessimism among institutional investors. The State Street Investor Confidence Index (ICI) peaked in March of this year, and after a wimpy stab at a comeback, has retreated anew. The developers of the ICI observed that 2016 ended on a downbeat note as institutional investors continued to shun the stock market, preferring instead to wait for follow-through from the incoming administration and greater clarity on just how serious the Federal Reserve is about hiking rates in 2017. “While markets increasingly look to be ‘priced for perfection’ over the US economic outlook for 2017, it is interesting that institutional investors are more circumspect,” said Lee Ferridge, State Street’s head of North American strategy. “Most noteworthy for me is the decline in the North American index even as US equities and the US dollar continue to rise.” If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers. Know that they’ve been at this game for long enough to cash out their winnings while they can still be put to good use. What’s the alternative? That would be investors finding themselves in naïve form, as Fast Eddie did, just before he lost to Minnesota Fats, asking, “How can I lose?
Iraqi rapid response forces battle with Islamic State militants in Intisar district of eastern Mosul. Deborah Lutterbeck reports Subscribe: http://smarturl.it/reuterssubscribe More updates and breaking news: http://smarturl.it/BreakingNews Reuters tells the world's stories like no one else. As the largest international multimedia news provider, Reuters provides coverage around the globe and across topics including business, financial, national, and international news. For over 160 years, Reuters has maintained its reputation for speed, accuracy, and impact while providing exclusives, incisive commentary and forward-looking analysis. http://reuters.com/ https://www.facebook.com/Reuters https://plus.google.com/u/0/s/reuters https://twitter.com/Reuters
NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - State Street Corp has tested a blockchain system that it hopes can be used to streamline the securities lending process as the financial industry accelerates efforts to adopt the emerging technology.
Statement by the Press Secretary on H.R. 710, H.R. 875, H.R. 960, H.R. 1150, H.R. 2726, H.R. 3218, H.R. 3784, H.R. 3842, H.R. 4352, H.R. 4465, H.R. 4618, H.R. 4680, H.R. 4887, H.R. 4939, H.R. 5015, H.R. 5065, H.R. 5099, H.R. 5150
On Friday, December 16, 2016, the President signed into law: H.R. 710, the “Essential Transportation Worker Identification Credential Assessment Act,” which requires the Department of Homeland Security to commission a comprehensive assessment and create a corrective action plan to address the effectiveness of the Transportation Worker Identification Credential program at enhancing security and reducing security risks for maritime facilities and vessels. H.R. 875, the “Cross-Border Trade Enhancement Act of 2016,” which authorizes U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to enter into: (1) fee agreements for CBP to provide inspection services at ports of entry; and (2) agreements for the donation of real and personal property with respect to ports of entry at which CBP performs inspection services; H.R. 960, which designates the Department of Veterans Affairs community-based outpatient clinic in Newark, Ohio, as the Daniel L. Kinnard VA Clinic; H.R. 1150, the “Frank R. Wolf International Religious Freedom Act,” which amends the International Religious Freedom Act; H.R. 2726, the “Apollo 11 50th Anniversary Commemorative Coin Act,” which requires the Department of the Treasury to mint and issue coins in recognition of the 50th anniversary of the first manned Moon landing; H.R. 3218, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1221 State Street, Suite 12, Santa Barbara, California, as the Special Warfare Operator Master Chief Petty Officer (SEAL) Louis "Lou" J. Langlais Post Office Building; H.R. 3784, the “SEC Small Business Advocate Act of 2016,” which establishes, within the Securities and Exchange Commission, an Office of the Advocate for Small Business Capital Formation and a Small Business Capital Formation Advisory Committee; H.R. 3842, the “Federal Law Enforcement Training Centers Reform and Improvement Act of 2015,” which authorizes in statute the Federal Law Enforcement Training Centers (FLETC) within the Department of Homeland Security and makes several changes to FLETC's management and operations; H.R. 4352, the “Faster Care for Veterans Act,” which authorizes VA to conduct a pilot program to establish a patient self-scheduling appointment system; H.R. 4465, the “Federal Assets Sale and Transfer Act of 2016,” which establishes an independent board to be known as the Public Buildings Reform Board to identify opportunities for the Government to reduce significantly its inventory of civilian real property and reduce costs to the Government; H.R. 4618, which designates the Federal building and United States courthouse located at 121 Spring Street SE in Gainesville, Georgia, as the Sidney Oslin Smith, Jr. Federal Building and United States Courthouse; H.R. 4680, the “National Park Service Centennial Act,” which authorizes certain programs relating to the National Park Service and for other purposes; H.R. 4887, which designates the United States Postal Service located at 23323 Shelby Road in Shelby, Indiana, as the Richard Allen Cable Post Office; H.R. 4939, the “United States-Caribbean Strategic Engagement Act of 2016,” which enhances engagement with the governments in the Caribbean region and with the Caribbean diaspora community in the United States; H.R. 5015, the “Combat-Injured Veterans Tax Fairness Act of 2016,” which directs the Department of Defense to restore improper tax withholdings from individuals separated from service; H.R. 5065, the “Bottles and Breastfeeding Equipment Screening Act,” which requires the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) to notify air carriers and airport security personnel of TSA's guidelines regarding permitting baby formula, breast milk, and juice on airplanes; H.R. 5099, the “CHIP IN for Vets Act of 2016,” which establishes within the Department of Veterans Affairs a pilot program to enter into partnership agreements to construct new departmental facilities; H.R. 5150, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 3031 Veterans Road West in Staten Island, New York, as the Leonard Montalto Post Office Building; H.R. 5309, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 401 McElroy Drive in Oxford, Mississippi, as the Army First Lieutenant Donald C. Carwile Post Office Building; H.R. 5356, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 14231 TX–150 in Coldspring, Texas, as the E. Marie Youngblood Post Office; H.R. 5591, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 810 N US Highway 83 in Zapata, Texas, as the Zapata Veterans Post Office; H.R. 5612, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 2886 Sandy Plains Road in Marietta, Georgia, as the Marine Lance Corporal Squire "Skip" Wells Post Office Building; H.R. 5676, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 6300 N. Northwest Highway in Chicago, Illinois, as the Officer Joseph P. Cali Post Office Building; H.R. 5687, the “GAO Mandates Revision Act of 2016,” which eliminates or modifies reporting requirements of the Government Accountability Office; H.R. 5790, the “Federal Bureau of Investigation Whistleblower Protection Enhancement Act of 2016,” which expands whistleblower protections for FBI employees who report waste, fraud, or abuse in order to protect them from retaliation; H.R. 5798, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1101 Davis Street in Evanston, Illinois, as the Abner J. Mikva Post Office Building; H.R. 5877, the “United States-Israel Advanced Research Partnership Act of 2016,” which authorizes the Department of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Department of State, to enter into cooperative research activities with Israel to enhance capabilities in cybersecurity; H.R. 5889, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 1 Chalan Kanoa VLG in Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands, as the Segundo T. Sablan and CNMI Fallen Military Heroes Post Office Building; H.R. 5948, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 830 Kuhn Drive in Chula Vista, California, as the Jonathan "J.D." De Guzman Post Office Building; H.R. 6014, which authorizes the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to enter into a reimbursable agreement with a State or local government agency to carry out certain projects at an airport for which notice to the FAA is required by Federal regulation; H.R. 6130, the “Holocaust Expropriated Art Recovery Act of 2016,” which allows civil actions to recover certain artwork or other property that was lost because of Nazi persecution without regard to Federal or State statutes of limitations; H.R. 6138, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 560 East Pleasant Valley Road, Port Hueneme, California, as the U.S. Naval Construction Battalion "Seabees" Fallen Heroes Post Office Building; H.R. 6282, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 2024 Jerome Avenue, in Bronx, New York, as the Dr. Roscoe C. Brown, Jr. Post Office Building; H.R. 6302, the “Overtime Pay for Protective Services Act of 2016,” which raises the cap on premium pay that any U.S. Secret Service employee could be paid for performing protective services during 2016 from level IV of the Executive Schedule to level II the Executive Schedule; H.R. 6304, which designates the facility of the United States Postal Service located at 501 North Main Street in Florence, Arizona, as the Adolfo "Harpo" Celaya Post Office; H.R. 6323, which designates the Department of Veterans Affairs health care system in Long Beach, California, the Tibor Rubin VA Medical Center; H.R. 6400, which revises certain boundaries in the John H. Chafee Coastal Barrier Resources System; H.R. 6416, the “Jeff Miller and Richard Blumenthal Veterans Health Care and Benefits Improvement Act of 2016,” which amends Department of Veterans Affairs authorities related to: (1) health care; (2) homelessness matters; (3) educational assistance and vocational rehabilitation; (4) disability compensation and claims appeals; (5) small business and employment matters; (6) burial and memorial affairs; and (7) construction reforms; H.R. 6431, the "Promoting Travel, Commerce, and National Security Act of 2016,” which establishes United States jurisdiction over offenses committed by employees of the Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice who are stationed in Canada in furtherance of border security initiatives; H.R. 6450, the “Inspector General Empowerment Act of 2016,” which modifies the authorities and responsibilities of agency Inspectors General and the Council of Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency by, among other provisions: (1) granting timely access to agency information and Federal grand jury materials; (2) requiring the Council to resolve jurisdictional disputes between Inspectors General; (3) adjusting the membership and procedures of the Council's Integrity Committee; (4) requiring additional reporting information to the Congress on investigations; (5) expanding certain agencies' authority to restrict access to information to protect national security or interests; and (6) exempting Inspector General investigations from certain statutes; H.R. 6451, the "Federal Property Management Reform Act of 2016” which provides for increased collocation with Postal Service facilities and guidance on Postal Service leasing practices; and (2) establishes a Federal Real Property Council; H.R. 6477, the “Foreign Cultural Exchange Jurisdictional Immunity Clarification Act,” which provides sovereign immunity for a foreign state for certain works of art that are imported into the United States from the foreign state for exhibition or display; S. 8, the “U.S-Norway Nuclear Cooperation Agreement” which provides congressional approval for the Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation between the Government of the United States of America and Government of the Kingdom of Norway; S. 546, the “RESPONSE Act of 2016,” which establishes the Railroad Emergency Services Preparedness, Operational Needs, and Safety Evaluation Subcommittee under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Advisory Council to provide recommendations on emergency responder training and resources relating to hazardous materials incidents involving railroads; S. 612, the “Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act or the “WIN Act”, which authorizes construction of specified Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) water resources projects for flood risk management, navigation, hurricane and storm damage risk reduction, and environmental restoration; (2) modifies previously authorized Corps projects; (3) authorizes several Indian water settlements; (4) amends the Safe Drinking Water Act to authorize several grant programs that address lead and other contaminants in public drinking water systems; and (5) contains numerous other water resources project-related provisions; S. 1635, the “Department of State Authorities Act, Fiscal Year 2017,” which authorizes, modifies, and extends authorities for the Department of State; S. 2577, the “Justice for All Reauthorization Act of 2016,” which reauthorizes several Department of Justice grant programs to assist victims of crime and to enhance analysis of DNA samples related to criminal investigations; S. 2854, the “Emmett Till Unsolved Civil Rights Crimes Reauthorization Act of 2016,” which reauthorizes the Emmett Till Unsolved Civil Rights Crime Act and expands it to apply to certain civil rights crimes that occurred before 1980; and S. 2971, the “National Urban Search and Rescue Response System Act of 2016,” which authorizes in statute the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s National Urban Search and Rescue Response System.
The Federal Reserve Board has adopted a final rule to prevent any future government bailouts of major U.S. banks by using tax-payers money.
Популярность российских активов среди иностранных инвесторов растет как на дрожжах, главные причины – нефть и надежда на потепление отношений с США.
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) has been hit with restrictions by the U.S. regulators as the bank failed to "adequately remedy" deficiencies in its resolution plan, commonly known as 'living will'
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Is it worth buying Raymond James (RJF) stock based on its value enhancing factors?
Top Research Reports for Alphabet, Deere & Bristol-Myers
Two days ago we reported that according to a troubling - for retailers - survey conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, nearly two thirds, or 63% of US adults, did not plan to shop on Black Friday. It is unclear what exactly is causing this sharp slump in US consumerism: according to Christopher Baldwin, CEO of BJ's Wholesale Club, one excuse is that "Black Friday is no longer a one-day event; it has turned into a multi-week event." Another possible reason is that shellshocked by soaring Obamacare premiums, US adults simply have far less disposable cash which to splurge on holiday trinkets. Confirming the pessimistic outlook on this holiday's spending season, Reuters reports that according to its own spot checks as well as those of reporters and industry officials, "store traffic remained subdued across the country." "Initial reports show it's steady and not very busy at stores around the country," said Craig Johnson, president at retail consultancy Customer Growth Partners. The firm deployed 18 people nationwide to observe customer traffic. Rain hurt shopping at stores in the Northeast, Johnson said, but some retailers like Best Buy and Wal-Mart saw improved customer traffic at stores across the country. At a JC Penney store in Manhattan, Terry Bodiford, visiting from South Carolina, said he did not feel deals were better than he had found online over the past few weeks. Macy's and Best Buy on Chicago's Magnificent Mile were packed, but employees said most of the customers were tourists. The lack of enthusiasm is troubling. As Bloomberg reports, a perpetually optimistic National Retail Federation projects that about 137.4 million consumers will make purchases in stores or online over the four-day weekend that starts on Thanksgiving. The amount Americans have spent has declined in the last three years, slipping 26 percent from 2013 to an average of $299.60 per person last year, according to the trade group. To be sure, at least superficially, there should be good news: By most accounts, this holiday season is expected be a boon for retailers. Unemployment, gasoline prices and inflation are low, while wages, home values and the stock market continue to rise. Shoppers have the wherewithal to spend, and now retailers are hoping the holiday season will give them a reason to. Companies such as Kohl’s Corp., Gap Inc. and Barnes & Noble Inc. have said the U.S. presidential election was a major cause of consumers’ recent reluctance to open their wallets. With the outcome settled, they’re expecting the dollars to finally flow. Oh yes, the "I don't know who will be president so I won't buy that TV excuse." It was laughable when it first emerged, and it is even more laughable now that contrary to expectations, Americans are failing to unelash their purchasing animal spirits. Maybe now they are worried about Jill Stein's recount? And yet, nothing will dent the NRF's optimism, which expects that U.S. retail spending is expected to rise 3.6 percent to $655.8 billion in November and December as "retailers are poised to take full advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday period, now known by some as Black Week, which accounts for about 15 percent of holiday spending, according to the trade group." What is even more troubling is that physical retailers have made every possible concession to consumers to get them through the door and spend, spend, spend. J.C. Penney will open its doors at 3 p.m. on Thursday to reach shoppers before they tuck into their Thanksgiving feasts. EBay Inc. is trying to push the selling even earlier: It rebranded the day before Thanksgiving as Mobile Wednesday, using discounts to target traveling Americans. The sales will stretch through the weekend, with online and brick-and-mortar companies offering deals for Cyber Monday. Investors are confident that the retail industry will see strong sales. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retail Index has risen 4.9 percent so far in November and is on pace for its best monthly return since July. Retail stocks have outpaced the broader market since the U.S. presidential election, with the index up 4.7 percent since Nov. 8, compared with the broader S&P 500’s 3 percent rally. Historical studies indicate that elections affect the timing of retail sales rather than the overall volume, said Jerry Storch, CEO of Saks Fifth Avenue owner Hudson’s Bay Co. “Hopefully, when we get to Black Friday, which really tolls the bell of holiday shopping, then the consumer will start looking forward to Christmas,” Storch said. Indeed, while actual revenues may be lacking, optimism is prevalent as retails hope that finally US consumer will beging spending. "That would be a welcome development for merchants that have yet to see a sales bump materialize. Dollar sales in the second week of November were 8 percent lower than in the same period a year earlier, according to research firm NPD Group. The decline was broad-based, too, with drops in apparel, toys, technology, athletic footwear and perfumes, the firm said." * * * However. what appears to be yet another year of pain for traditional, bricks and mortar retailers, will likely result in further gains for online vendors. According to Reuters, Chicago's State Street, a normally bustling shopping area popular with locals, was desolate. Shaun Smith, a 29-year-old restaurant manager, said he only came to the State Street store to take advantage of a deal for a $279 Westinghouse TV which is normally priced over $600. "I will buy most of what I need online," he said. “If Amazon had everything, like everything you need in the world, I would buy everything from there,” said Oscar Viral, a 58-year-old chef in New York. “I wanted something from Macy’s, and I got on the Internet because they didn’t have it available in the store.” Confirming this, moments ago Amazon.com reported that Black Friday is already on pace to surpass Black Friday last year, in terms of items ordered, adding that In first few hours, Amazon customers have ordered >100k toys. Alexa devices are some of the best-selling items on Amazon.com so far today, including Echo Dot, Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote. The company also adds that Instant Pot 7-in-1 Multi-functional Cooker, Hasbro’s Pie Face Game, WeMo Switch Smart Plug (Works with Amazon Alexa) and Sennheiser HD 598 Headphones also among best- selling deals today. * * * Amazon is just one of many alternatives: for shoppers who are ready to spend, they have more ways than ever to do so, with retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. offering exclusive deals to customers who download their mobile applications. Non-store sales may increase 7 percent to 10 percent this year, reaching as much as $117 billion, according to the NRF. Online sales account for the bulk of this measure, the group said. Online spending by U.S. bargain hunters climbed to above $1 billion by Thanksgiving evening, according to Adobe Digital Index, surging almost 14 percent from a year ago and reflecting a broader trend away from brick-and-mortar shopping. At the start of the first holiday shopping season since the election of Donald Trump as president on November 8, U.S. consumers loosened their purse strings and spent $1.15 billion online between midnight and 5 pm ET on Thursday, according to Adobe. The Adobe figure is collected from 21 billion online visits to 4,500 U.S. retail sites since Nov. 1. "We saw one of our strongest days ever online," Brian Cornell, chief executive of discount retailer Target, told reporters on Thursday evening. He added that online sales grew by double digits, without giving further details. "Online discounts are earlier and a lot bigger than last year," said Tamara Gaffney, principal research analyst at Adobe Digital Index. While the surge in online spending is unmistakable, the question is whether the 7-10% increase in online sales to $117 billion will offset what is shaping up to be another tepid holiday season for traditional retailers. If so, with the election now behind us, we wonder just what the next "latest and greatest" excuse used by retail CEOs will be on Q4 conference calls should the always delayed rebound in US spending fail to materialize yet again..
While most global equity markets were subdued due to the US Thaksgiving holiday, the FX world was very busy overnight, marked by the relentless dollar surge on expectations of a rate hike not only in December but further in 2017, sending Asian currencies to the weakest level in 7 years: the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index reached 103.32, the lowest level since March 2009. The regional FX plunge will likely deter regional central banks from easing monetary policies as the prospects of higher U.S. rates spurred capital outflows according to Toru Nishihama, an emerging-market economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute who added that depreciating currencies are making it very hard for central banks to ease on concerns about inflationary pressure and acceleration of fund outflows. The dollar also pushed its way past more of last year's peaks against the euro to hit $1.0550 in early European action, with only the March 2015 high of $1.0457 standing in the way of a drive toward parity, likewise the yen skidded to an eight-month low and China's yuan to an 8-1/2 year low, while the highly sensitive Turkish lira and Indian rupee hit new historic troughs, although the USD has since given up some of the gains. "There doesn't seem to be anything stopping U.S. yields going higher in the near-term so I think people are going to stay on the dollar trend," said Michael Metcalfe, head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. "The only risk to this are that the dislocations in markets outside of the U.S., particularly in emerging markets, get to a point where they start to feed back into concerns (for the Federal Reserve as it looks to raise interest rates)," he said. While so far US equity markets have ignored the jump in the DXY to a near 14 year highs, dollar gains reverberated through emerging markets. India’s rupee and Vietnam’s dong slid to records, while the Philippine peso dropped to its weakest level in eight years. In Turkey, the lira rebounded from an all-time low after the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates, although even that move has now been faded. Copper’s surge pulled a gauge of commodities higher for a fourth day, the longest rally in a month. Rosneft PJSC approved a $17 billion bond program, the biggest ever by a Russian company as the nation’s largest oil producer refinances debt. Copper was set to close at its highest level in more than a year. As Bloomberg writes this morning, central banks worldwide are being pushed to take action in the face of the stronger dollar. In Turkey, policy makers opted to support the nation’s beleaguered currency, while the European Central Bank warned that the risk of an abrupt global market correction on the back of rising political uncertainty has intensified, posing a threat to banks, stability and economic growth. The market odds of a December rate hike in the U.S. are 100 percent and traders are adding to bets that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will lead further action in 2017. U.S. equity benchmarks extended records last session before the Thanksgiving holiday. “The dollar has been really strong in anticipation of Yellen’s move next month and that strength in the U.S. dollar is ultimately going to mean that emerging-market assets would be seen as disadvantaged,” said Nicholas Teo, a strategist at KGI Fraser Securities in Singapore. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.1 percent, while Japan’s Topix index climbed for a 10th straight day, on the back of the ongoing surge in the USDJPY, its longest streak since June 2015. Europe’s top equity market this month, Greece, is giving signs of overheating: A technical indicator hit its most-overbought level since October 2013, meaning that gains might have come too quickly to be maintained. US equity futures were unchanged at 2201. European sovereign bonds were broadly higher as ECB Governing Council Member Francois Villeroy de Galhau was quoted by Expansion as saying the central bank was mulling many options for its debt-purchase program. They partially reversed a selloff from Wednesday that was fueled by a report that the ECB is planning to lend out securities in an effort to boost bond-market liquidity and reduce shortages in the repurchase market. France’s 10-year bond yield fell three basis points to 0.76 percent. Portugal led gains in the region, with the nation’s 10-year yield falling nine basis points to 3.59 percent. Indonesia’s 10-year sovereign bonds retreated for a sixth day, sending yields to the highest since March 2. * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk Subdued trade across major asset classes thus far amid the Thanksgiving holiday with European equities trading relatively flat Thanksgiving day has not stopped FX players pushing the USD higher against the JPY, EUR and CHF, with USD/JPY printing new cycle highs just above 113.50 Looking ahead, highlights include German IFO. Note that US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures unchanged 0% at 2201 Euro Stoxx 50 down -0.1% FTSE 100 down -0.3% CAC 40 down -0.2% DAX down 0% IBEX 35 down -0.1% FTSE MIB up 0% German 10yr yield down -3bps to 0.24% Greek 10yr yield up 0bps to 6.92% Portugal 10yr yield down -6bps to 3.62% Italian 10yr yield down -4bps to 2.08%, Credit: iTraxx Main down 0.4 bps to 81.58 iTraxx Crossover down 2.1 bps to 343.7 Nikkei 225 +0.9% Hang Seng -0.3% Kospi -0.8% Shanghai Composite +0% ASX +0% Sensex -0.6%, Top News Spanish economy grew in line with expectations in 3Q India’s rupee sinks to a record low, Philippine peso falls to 50 per dollar for first time since 2008 Copper, nickel rises, crude oil little changed U.S. individual investor bulls at highest since Jan. 2015: AAII Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks traded mixed following a similar lead from Wall St where S&P 500 and DJIA posted a 3rd consecutive record close, while Nasdaq 100 finished negative. Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) outperformed as the index played catch up to yesterday's gains on return from holiday and was met with further JPY weakness, while ASX 200 (Unch.) was weighed on by commodities after gold slumped below USD 1200/oz amid a firm USD and after the index met resistance around 5,500. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp (flat) were indecisive and traded mixed amid a lack of key drivers. 10yr JGBs were flat with demand dampened as focus was on riskier assets in Japan, while the curve steepened amid underperformance in the super-long end in which 30yr yields rose to its highest in 8 months. PBoC academic Wang Yong said CNY depreciation will lead to a decline in FX positions and money supply, which could result to higher money market rates. The PBoC injected CNY 60bIn 7-day reverse repos, CNY 45b1n in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 10bIn in 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set mid-point at 6.9085, the weakest fixing since June 2008. Top Asian News China Wants Quick Close on Regional Trade Pact After TPP Dashed Asia’s Accelerating Currency Rout Set to Sideline Central Banks Philippine Market in a Funk as Peso Slides to 2008 Crisis Level Thailand Evokes Temasek as Junta Tries to Revive State-Run Firms Singapore Downgrades 2016 Growth Forecast as Exports Remain Weak Ctrip Extends Global Reach With $1.7 Billion Skyscanner Deal In Europe, like in Asia, trade has been subdued across major asset classes thus far amid the Thanksgiving holiday with European equities trading relatively flat. This morning has seen Russia's Energy Novak announcing Russia's support for an output freeze as opposed to a cut, which is largely a reiteration and as such WTI and Brent crude saw a muted reaction. Elsewhere, property names remain pressured after countrywide (typical barometer for housing) stated that profit will hit the lower end of their guidance. Finally, material names have been leant a helping hand by a recent uptick in gold from yesterday's slump and copper prices extending on gains with demand seen from the open of Shanghai metals trade as participants in the region jumped in on the recent advances, alongside iron ore gains which rallied by around 6% to a near-3 year high. Across fixed income markets, Bunds are higher this morning with the curve slightly steeper after a revision lower in the German GDP release, while volumes have been light due to the aforementioned Thanksgiving holiday. OPEC have yet to make a final proposal to Non-OPEC on joint production cut, adding that a discussion is to take place on 28th November, according to sources. Top European News Rio Lowers 2016 Capital Spending to Less Than $3.5b from ~$4b BNP Paribas Plans EU2b-EU3b Investments 2017-20, Les Echos Says Generali CEO Says Merger With Axa Not on Agenda : Les Echos Vinci Confirms Outlook for FY Revenue, Results Thyssenkrupp to Keep Dividend Stable as Profit Matches In Currencies, the greenback advanced 0.4 percent to 113 yen at 6:25 a.m. New York time, having reached an almost eight-month high. It slipped 0.2 percent to $1.0577 per euro, after surging 0.7 percent the previous day. Turkey’s lira strengthened 0.3 percent and stocks rallied after the central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates for the first time since January 2014. Policy makers increased the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 8.50 percent and the repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 8 percent. Economists had predicted no change in either rate. The rupee tumbled as global funds dumped Indian assets. The central bank will take appropriate action to deal with the currency’s decline, a government official said earlier Thursday, asking not to be identified, citing rules. State-run lenders sold dollars, probably on behalf of the central bank, three Mumbai-based traders said, asking not to be named. A gauge of implied price swings in the euro versus dollar over the next two weeks jumped to its highest level since the aftermath of the U.K.’s Brexit vote, as traders await the ECB’s Dec. 8 policy meeting. The euro has slid 4.2 percent against the dollar since the U.S. election amid speculation that the ECB will extend its stimulus, maintaining a policy divergence with the Fed. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index dropped for a second day, heading for the lowest level since June 27, days after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union In commodities, the Bloomberg Commodity Index was up 0.3 percent, extending gains to a fourth day, the longest run since Oct. 19. Copper for deliver in three months rose 1.9 percent to $5,848.50 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange in London, heading for the highest close since June 2015, while zinc and lead also posted gains. The LMEX Index of six base metals on Wednesday closed at the highest level in 18 months. West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed at $48.04 a barrel after retreating 0.2 percent last session. Iraq’s prime minister said the country will cut production as part of a broader OPEC supply deal, while Russia is seen agreeing to a freeze rather than a reduction. Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 0.7 percent to $1,180.38 an ounce, the lowest level since February, on expectations of higher rates and a stronger dollar. * * * US Event Calendar: Closed for Thanksgiving holiday * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap A happy Thanksgiving to all our US readers although if you've got enough time to read this then you obviously haven't got a big enough Turkey to cook. Pre-Thanksgiving trading was a microcosm of the volatility we expect to be a more regular feature of markets in 2017. Indeed the real excitement was in the rates market where yields darted higher on both sides of the pond. It started in Europe though where mid-way through the morning session a Reuters story suggesting that the ECB was looking at ways to lend more bonds in order to address the collateral squeeze in markets. The article suggested that possible changes could include reducing charges for firms which ‘fail to return on time the bonds that they borrowed’ as well as ‘accepting new types of collateral and extending the duration of loans’. The suggestion is that this will be discussed at the ECB meeting next month on the 8thDecember so it’s one to keep an eye on. The move was supported by a strong set of European flash PMI’s and then some bumper durable goods orders data in the US and a set of FOMC minutes which did little to move the needle. 10y Bund yields were at one stage up as much as +10bps from their lows at a shade above 0.300%. A retreat into the close however saw Bunds finish up a more modest +4.4bps at the closing bell at 0.260%. Yields in the periphery were also up between 5bps and 10bps by the end of play with 10y BTP’s trading in a 15bp range while 10y Treasury yields closed 3.8bps higher and just below Friday’s high in yield at 2.351%. Still, the high-to-low range for Treasuries was just over 12bps during the course of the session with the peak in yield of 2.415% intraday actually the highest on an intraday basis since July 2015. Meanwhile here in the UK the Gilt market also had to contend with Chancellor Hammond’s first Autumn and post-Brexit Statement. As our economists noted, their expectation was that the Chancellor would ease the UK fiscal stance modestly and that he would keep some ‘fiscal stance’ in reserve if needed for later and this is what we got with a 0.9% of GDP of fiscal relaxation and 1.2% of GDP of fiscal space in reserve. As our colleagues highlighted in their note last night, the announced relaxation is back-loaded to year three (2019/20), which coincides with the assumed timing of the UK's exit from the EU and the lead up to the next general election, assuming this parliament goes full term. The fiscal relaxation in 2017/18 is just 0.1% of GDP. The Chancellor had said he would create more flexible fiscal rules. The changes were modest though. The deficit target is now defined on a cyclically-adjusted basis and leaves him some modest room for manoeuvre if needed later. However, there was no "golden rule" to protect public investment spending. That said, public investment is the only part of spending expected to grow in cyclically-adjusted terms over the next five years. There were hints of the "new industrial strategy", but it remains a slow-moving work-in-progress. In terms of what this means for the BoE, our economists’ interpretation is that the Autumn Statement has not pushed hard against the 2017 real income shock coming from sterling’s boost to inflation. Their baseline view is BoE policy will be on hold but there is a higher probability of the next move being a loosening of monetary policy rather than a tightening. Gilts were the big underperformer in DM markets yesterday with the 10y yield closing +8.7bps higher at 1.446% with an intraday range of a little over 13bps. Elsewhere, the closing levels across risk assets were a bit more subdued although again not without a similar level of intraday chopping around. Equities were initially a touch weaker in Europe with the Stoxx 600 closing -0.07% albeit in a high to low range which spanned nearly 0.90%. Over in the US, despite REITS and utilities sectors being weighed down by the moves in rates the S&P 500 (+0.08%) did still manage to pare early losses to extend its record closing high for a third consecutive day. The move also came despite a strong day for the US Dollar with the Dollar index (+0.65%) closing at the highest level in more than a decade. On the other hand Gold (-1.98%) closed below the $1,200/oz level for the first time since February. Over in Asia this morning it’s been a fairly directionless session for equity markets. In Japan the Nikkei has reopened with a +1.09% gain despite the flash manufacturing PMI for November deteriorating a touch to 51.1 from 51.4 the month prior. The Shanghai Comp (+0.09%) is also higher however the Hang Seng (-0.35%), Kospi (-0.74%) and ASX (-0.09%) have all dipped lower. Elsewhere EM currencies continue to remain under pressure following the continued strengthening for the Greenback. The Philippine Peso has hit 50 to the Dollar for the first time since 2008 while the Malaysian Ringgit is now at its weakest level since the Asian financial crisis in 1998. Back to that data yesterday. The most significant prints were the flash November PMI’s in Europe. It was revealed that the composite reading for the Euro area rose to 54.1 this month from 53.3 in October after expectations were for no change. The services sector drove the improvement with the PMI rising to 54.1 from 52.8 (vs. 52.9 expected) and the highest since December last year. The manufacturing print was up a more modest 0.2pts to 53.7 (vs. 53.3 expected). Regionally, a slight disappointment in Germany was compensated by a marginal pick-up in France leaving the average for both flat on the month. That suggests that the positive momentum for the Euro area came from the non-core for which we will get the data for at the start of December. Significantly however, the data has led our European economists to adjust their ECB call next month. They have switched their call from a 9-12 month QE extension to a 6 month extension announcement at the December meeting. Elsewhere, there was little in the way of surprise from yesterday’s FOMC minutes. The text confirmed that ‘most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate relatively soon, so long as incoming data provided some further evidence of continued progress toward the Committee’s objectives’. The minutes also showed that members considered that labour market conditions had improved ‘appreciably’ and that some participants had argued that ‘to preserve credibility’ an increase ‘should occur at the next meeting’. Back on the data front, it was the October durable and capital goods orders that really stood out in the US yesterday. Headline durable goods orders printed at +4.8% mom for October following a boost from aircraft orders, well exceeding the +1.7% expected, while September data was also revised up. The ex-transportation reading (+1.0% mom vs. +0.2% expected) also beat while core capex orders rose +0.4% mom and a smidgen ahead of consensus (+0.3% expected). Meanwhile, the flash manufacturing PMI rose 0.5pts this month to 53.9 which is the best reading since October last year. Initial jobless claims rose 18k to 251k last week, the FHFA house price index rose +0.6% mom in September as expected but new home sales weakened more than expected in October (-1.9% mom vs. -0.5% expected). Lastly the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for November was revised up to 93.8 from 91.6 – the best reading since May with both current conditions and expectations components getting revised up. Before we wrap up, one potentially important event which has crept up upon is Austria’s presidential vote re-run on the 4th of December. As a reminder this is a re-run of the vote held back in May which was then overturned on voting irregularities. The Greens-backed Independent candidate Van der Bellen won that by tiny majority of 50.3% to 49.7% over the far-right Freedom party candidate Norbet Hofer. According to the FT, Hofer holds a narrow lead in opinion polls but voting is expected to be close. Notably, in an interview with the BBC and highlighted in an article this morning, Hofer confirmed that he would push for an EU membership referendum should the EU become more centralised after Brexit, particularly in a case where ‘the national parliaments are disempowered and where the union is governed like a state’. One to keep an eye on. Looking at the day ahead, given the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US today where both bond and equity markets will be closed, the data docket is unsurprisingly fairly light this afternoon. The focus will be on the releases this morning in Europe with the spotlight on Germany where we’ll get the details of the Q3 GDP report as well as the November IFO business climate survey. France will also be out with November confidence indicators and jobseekers data. Away from the data we’ll hear from the ECB’s Praet this afternoon in Vienna while the ECB will also publish its Financial Stability Review this morning.
Портфельные менеджеры делают ставку на снижение "мусорных" облигаций. Денежные потоки в последнее время активно поступают в фонды ETF, которые шортят высокодоходные облигации.Сейчас ставки против высокодоходных облигаций достигли максимума за последние 5 лет, а значит, вполне возможно, что на этом сегменте рынка назревают серьезные распродажи, пишет Financial Times.Короткие позиции по ETF от BlackRock и State Street, инвестирующие в "мусорные облигации", за последние несколько недель росли стремительными темпами и достигли самого высокого уровня с октября 2007 года.За последние несколько лет инвесторы привыкли брать на себя риск инвестиций в наименее надежные облигации, причем предпочитают делать это через ETF, так как в этом варианте издержки минимальны. Немаловажная причина выбора "мусорных" облигаций - доходность. В условиях нулевых процентных ставок вложения в надежные активы не приносят желаемого дохода.Спрос на такого рода инструменты привел к снижению доходностей по ним до исторических минимумов. Впрочем, спред с американскими казначейскими облигациями, по историческим меркам, не показал такого сужения.