After a barrage of breaking, surprise headlines and geopolitical developments, markets fall back to the familiar rhythm of trading the monthly payrolls (+205K exp), or rather, the far more important average hourly earnings (+2.8% Y/Y exp.) report. This morning, global shares hit a one-week high before easing a touch, as caution ahead of jobs data, and a potential disappointment in wage inflation outweighed a potential breakthrough in nuclear tensions over the Korean peninsula. As a result, futures are somewhat mixed, with Asia trading higher, while Europe started off on the back foot but has recovered losses. The MSCI All-Country World index was 0.1% higher and set for a weekly gain of almost 2%. As is traditionally the case ahead of payrolls, S&P futures have hugged the flatline. Gains came mostly from Asian stocks which staged sharp rallies after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was prepared to meet North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, potentially marking a major breakthrough in nuclear tensions between the two countries. The summit news overshadowed a warning from China that it will take “strong” measures to counter U.S. trade tariffs. “While it is easy to be cynical, one can’t help feeling these talks could well go the same way as previous attempts. But nonetheless it will be interesting to see how this one plays out,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets. Commenting on Trump's two main announcement this week, one desk had the following interestinh commentary: President Trump must be delighted that his policies are paying off. His bellicose tweets have brought North Korea to the negotiating table and his use of cold war steel tariffs is effectively an invitation for trading partners to make him their best offer in order to secured tariff exemption. A weaker dollar is clearly part of Trump's protectionist agenda as well and we believe investors will be looking to sell into any near-term dollar rallies. As previewed, the market now will focus onto today's employment report in the US. The consensus is for a 205k February payrolls number, which follows 200k in January. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.0% from 4.1%. But it’s the average hourly earnings print which is the bigger component focus for the market right now given the obsession with inflation. The market forecasts a +0.2% mom print (which should lower than annual rate by one-tenth to +2.8% yoy, driven by base effects). Going into payrolls, Asian stocks were higher across the board after the lead from US where Trump confirmed aluminium and steel tariffs, but exempted NAFTA partners and was also said to be open to providing relief for allies. In addition, Asia-Pac risk appetite was further bolstered by geopolitical developments in which the South Korean National Security Office chief announced that North Korean Leader Kim is committed to denuclearization and will refrain from conducting further tests, with President Trump and North Korea's Kim to meet by May. Overnight, in its latest announcement, the BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%. The decision was made by 8-1 vote with board member Kataoka the sold dissenter, who called for the BoJ to buy JGBs so 10yr yields or longer drop further and repeated that the BoJ should clarify it will ease further if domestic factors delay reaching price target. At the post-meeting press conference, Governor Kuroda faced a barrage of questions about the so-called exit from the current monetary easing scheme, but according to Goldman, the governor damped expectations for the exit for the foreseeable future. In fact, Goldman adds, and we agree, that it will be difficult for the BOJ to normalize interest rates before the impact of the next consumption tax hike, slated for October 2019, has run its course, given the weakness of upward pricing pressures and the strong intentions of the government. Australia's ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were positive but with upside capped by a subdued commodities sector and weakness across steel names on Trump tariffs, while KOSPI (+1.0%) outperformed on the further appeasement in the Korean peninsula. Not helping the growth narrative was China's CPI which came in blistering hot, surging 2.9%, or the most in 5 years. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.1%) was underpinned amid the broad positivity in the region, while the Shanghai Composite (+0.6%) somewhat lagged after PBoC inaction led to a net weekly drain of CNY 240bln. Also overnight, outgoing PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said market-access reforms should be accelerated and that the world’s second-largest economy “can be bolder in opening up”; Deputy Governor Yi Gang said stable progress will be made on capital-account convertibility. Other key Chinese data: Chinese CPI (Feb) Y/Y 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.5%); highest in over 4 years. (Newswires) Chinese PPI (Feb) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.3%) Chinese New Yuan Loans (CNY)(Feb) 839B vs. Exp. 900B (Prev. 2900B). (Newswires) Chinese Aggregate Financing (CNY)(Feb) 1.17tln vs. Exp. 1.07tln (Prev. 3.06tln) Chinese Money Supply M2 (Feb) Y/Y 8.8% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 8.6%) Chinese commodities were hit hard by the jump in inflation and trade war announcement, with iron ore plunging 5%, now down 14% from February peak; steel rebar futures -7.8% this week in Shanghai, on course for biggest slump in a year. DCE Iron Ore European equities erased earlier losses before edging higher, chasing gains in the U.S. and Asia as the U.S. non-farm payrolls report draws near. Automakers remain underperformers as trade-related concerns linger. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was fractionally higher (+0.1%) and heading for a weekly advance of 2.6%. GVC Holdings is one of the best performers on the gauge after the company said it made a strong start to 2018. Lagardere drags media shares to the worst industry group performance after posting weaker-than-expected full-year results. German Jan. ind. production fell 0.1% m/m; est. +0.6% m/m. U.K. February retail sales drop as BDO sees more ‘casualties.’ In global macro, the overnight narrative was dominated by the yen and the Norwegian krone, with the USDJPY jumping after Trump agreed to meet Kim Jong Un in an unprecedented summit; meanwhile, Norway’s headline inflation print beat every single estimate and came in higher than the central bank’s newly reduced target, providing fodder to krone bulls. The EUR/USD dropped below 1.2300, while MXN and CAD among the strongest major currencies after Mexico and Canada’s tariff exemption. Asia’s emerging currencies were mixed as concern over U.S. metals tariffs and possible retaliation from other nations was offset by news of the first ever meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and North Korea. Meanwhile, few investors sought the safety of Treasuries ahead of February’s non-farm payrolls data. Treasury yields rise across the curve, led by 7Y-10Y sector. Core euro-area bonds extend losses as traders build concession ahead of large supply next week. In the commodities complex, WTI and Brent crude futures remain in close proximity to yesterday’s lows with energy newsflow relatively light ahead of today’s Baker Hughes rig count. In metals markets, spot gold remains modestly softer after yesterday’s sell-off with prices suffering from an apparent easing in geopolitical tensions. Chinese steel futures were pushed to their lowest level since November as domestic producers call on the Chinese government to increase its efforts in retaliating to Trump’s tariff plans whilst sentiment also hampered for copper prices which were seen at their lowest level since September 2017. Expected data include non-farm payrolls, unemployment and wholesale inventories. Big Lots and American Woodmark are among companies reporting earnings. The Fed’s Evans (1.40pm, 3.45pm and 5.45pm GMT) and Rosengren (5.40pm GMT) are both expected to speak on monetary policy and the outlook following the report so that’s worth also keeping an eye on. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,744.25 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 376.93 MXAP up 0.3% to 175.49 MXAPJ up 0.6% to 579.41 Nikkei up 0.5% to 21,469.20 Topix up 0.3% to 1,715.48 Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 30,996.21 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,307.17 Sensex down 0.3% to 33,266.66 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,963.23 Kospi up 1.1% to 2,459.45 German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.648% Euro up 0.02% to $1.2314 Italian 10Y yield rose 4.1 bps to 1.728% Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 1.428% Brent futures up 0.6% to $63.96/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,319.11 U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 90.23 Top Overnight News Trump hailed “great progress” in talks with North Korea. While a South Korean official said the meeting would take place by May, the White House indicated no timing has been set U.S. slapped a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum on Thursday. The U.S. excluded Mexico and Canada, a concession that will remain in place as long as they reach agreement on a new North American Free Trade Agreement that meets U.S. satisfaction People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said market-access reforms should be accelerated and that the world’s second-largest economy “can be bolder in opening up”; Deputy Governor Yi Gang said stable progress will be made on capital- account convertibility. Data released Friday showed Chinese consumer inflation climbed 2.9% in February, beating a forecast of 2.5% President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are being forced to put their political muscle into the race for a Pennsylvania House seat that should be theirs for the taking; it would be an embarrassing defeat for the president and yet another sign of a weakened GOP heading into the November midterm elections that will decide control of Congress U.K. officials don’t expect to clinch a Brexit deal until two months before exit day, in March 2019, increasing the chances of chaos for executives and lawmakers While news on the tariff exemption and Korean talks were seen as positive, analysts and investors said they’re waiting on follow-through actions on the summit and possible trade measures from other countries The Bank of Japan stayed the course with its monetary stimulus U.K. officials don’t expect to clinch a Brexit deal by the end of the year and privately think January is the real deadline to get an accord in time for exit day, according to people familiar with the negotiations Asian stocks were higher across the board after the positive lead from US where on one hand President Trump confirmed aluminium and steel tariffs, but exempted NAFTA partners and was also said to be open to providing relief for allies. In addition, Asia-Pac risk appetite was further bolstered by geopolitical developments in which the South Korean National Security Office chief announced that North Korean Leader Kim is committed to denuclearization and will refrain from conducting further tests, with President Trump and North Korea's Kim to meet by May. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) were positive but with upside capped by a subdued commodities sector and weakness across steel names on Trump tariffs, while KOSPI (+1.0%) outperformed on the further appeasement in the Korean peninsula. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.1%) was underpinned amid the broad positivity in the region, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) somewhat lagged after PBoC inaction led to a net weekly drain of CNY 240bln, while participants also digested US tariffs alongside mixed Chinese lending and inflation data. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with markets focused on riskier assets and after an uneventful BoJ announcement. The PBoC skipped open market operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 240bln vs. last week's CNY 120bln net injection. Overnight, outgoing PBoC Governor Zhou said China's economy will be less reliant on quantitative stimulus and that China may reduce reliance on money supply to boost growth. Responding to Trump's tariffs, China Mofcom said it firmly opposes US trade measures and urged the US to withdraw tariffs on steel and aluminium, while it added it will take strong measures to safeguard its own interests. Other Chinese data: Chinese CPI (Feb) Y/Y 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 1.5%); highest in over 4 years. (Newswires) Chinese PPI (Feb) Y/Y 3.7% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 4.3%) Chinese New Yuan Loans (CNY)(Feb) 839B vs. Exp. 900B (Prev. 2900B). (Newswires) Chinese Aggregate Financing (CNY)(Feb) 1.17tln vs. Exp. 1.07tln (Prev. 3.06tln) Chinese Money Supply M2 (Feb) Y/Y 8.8% vs. Exp. 8.7% (Prev. 8.6%) The BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP held at -0.1% and 10yr JGB yield target at around 0%. The decision was made by 8-1 vote with board member Kataoka the dissenter, who called for the BoJ to buy JGBs so 10yr yields or longer drop further and repeated that the BoJ should clarify it will ease further if domestic factors delay reaching price target. Top Asian News HNA Unloads More Land in Hong Kong as Selling Spree Picks Up Indonesia Orders Coal Price Cut to Shield Power Producers Diabetes Drug Developer Hua Is Said to Pick Hong Kong for IPO BOJ Keeps Stimulus Unchanged Ahead of New Term for Kuroda China Looks to Claw Back $1.4 Trillion in Lost Tech Listings European bourses have seen a tame start to the session as is often the case during pre-NFP trade (Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%) with EU stocks not joining in on the gains seen overnight that came amid potential reprieve for US allies on the tariff front and a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions. Sector specific performance has been relatively broad-based thus far with some slight underperformance in material names following price action seen overnight in the metals complex. In terms of individual movers, GVC (+3.1%) leads the Stoxx 600 following their latest earnings report with Lagardere the laggard (-6.4%) after their earnings statement was met with a cold reception by the market. Top European News U.K. Industry Output Jumps Amid Oil Rebound, Record Factory Run German Economic Momentum Moderates as Production, Exports Slip Czech Inflation Dips Under Target as Central Bank Halts on Rates Rotate Out of European Tech and Into Financials, UBS Says In FX, USD majors are broadly split down the middle as the safer-havens underperform on latest US-NK developments and further signs that President Trump is willing to approach import tariffs on a country by country basis. Usd/Jpy has now broken free from its recent 106.00 anchor to the upside, above 106.50 and through the 20 DMA around 106.75-80, but could be contained by hefty option expiries within a new 106.50-107.00 range (1.2 bn and 3.8 bn respectively), with the upper end not just more alluring due to the size of interest at the strike, but also perhaps compelling if US jobs data is strong (wages especially). Usd/Chf is testing 0.9500, while Eur/Usd is trading either side of the 1.2300 handle and remaining lower after Thursday’s sharp reversal from initial postECB/Draghi presser peaks. In terms of tech analysis, 1.2334 seems to be capping the upside (21 DMA), while support is seen down at 1.2245 and there is also big expiry interest in close proximity with 1.8 bn running off at 1.2300 and 2.3 bn at 1.2350. The Loonie is amongst the G10 outperformers and back below 1.2900 vs the Greenback after Canada (and Mexico) got an indefinite exemption from steel and aluminium taxes pending NAFTA negotiations. However, today’s employment report offers plenty of scope for independent impetus and there are some decent option expiries that could come into play around 1.2815-25 (1.1 bn) and 1.3000 (1.6 bn). Elsewhere, Eur/Nok dropped (to sub-9.600) on stronger than expected Norwegian inflation data, with headline CPI above the new 2% target level just ahead of next week's policy meeting. Looking at the Dollar Index, yesterday’s close above the 21 DMA at 89.820 bodes well for further recovery gains and a breach of the topside from the current circa 90.100-300 range. In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures remain in close proximity to yesterday’s lows with energy newsflow relatively light ahead of today’s Baker Hughes rig count. In metals markets, spot gold remains modestly softer after yesterday’s sell-off with prices suffering from an apparent easing in geopolitical tensions. Chinese steel futures were pushed to their lowest level since November as domestic producers call on the Chinese government to increase its efforts in retaliating to Trump’s tariff plans whilst sentiment also hampered for copper prices which were seen at their lowest level since September 2017 US Event Calendar 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 205,000, prior 200,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.0%, prior 4.1% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3% Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9% Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.3 Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7% 10:00am: Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, prior 1.2%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7% Central Banks: 8:40am: Fed’s Evans live TV interview 10:45am: Fed’s Evans live TV interview 12:40pm: Fed’s Rosengren Speaks on Outlook 12:45pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Monetary Policy DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap I spent the last night before holidays at a big DB macro dinner with most people fixated about rates, inflation, and risks to the dollar weakness view. The risks to growth due to a China slowdown did come up a few times as well which it hadn’t as much at previous similar events I’ve been at. Usually at these dinners there tends to be quite consensual themes running through the core of it. However there didn’t seem to be high conviction last night. It’s seems a combination of the vol shock, the subsequent recovery, confusion about whether yields have peaked for now and Trump’s tariff plan have left conviction low. Before the dinner, Deutsche Bank held its 8th annual Global Bank Capital Forum in London. Every year, it brings together major investors, issuers and senior regulators to discuss the latest market and regulatory developments in banking. This year, the event was attended by 120 investors and 70 representatives of banks from Europe, North America and APAC. The keynote address was delivered by William Coen, Secretary General of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and the closing speech was given by Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve in 2014-2017. Moving on to today, it’s the 9th anniversary of the closing low for the S&P 500 from the GFC. How time flies. In the PDF today we show our usual performance review chart for this period. There’s also some accompanying text further down the page to mark this occasion. Today is also payrolls day and in particular we’ll get the next instalment of the averagely hourly earnings saga that last month created mayhem in financial markets (full preview below). Ahead of that we’ve just had news of the BoJ policy meeting where members voted 8-1 to keep its yield curve settings and asset purchases unchanged while the statement reiterated that inflation expectations have been “more or less unchanged”. We shall hopefully learn more from Governor Kuroda’s press conference at 3:30pm local time which is just before our note goes to print. The other big news this morning - that could lead to lower geopolitical risks - is that the US and North Korean leaders may meet for the first time after the South Korean National Security Council Chief Chung Eui-yong said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible”, while Trump said he would meet Kim “by May to achieve permanent denuclearization” by the North. In Asia, markets have pared back larger gains but remain higher with the Nikkei (+0.48%), Kospi (+0.92%), Hang Seng (+0.87%) and China’s CSI 300 (+0.55%) all up. Elsewhere, China’s departing PBOC Governor Zhou noted that “when we’re pursuing quality-oriented (economic) growth, we’ll depend less heavily on the credit-base growth model”. Datawise, China’s February CPI was above market at 2.9% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected) while the PPI moderated further to 3.7% yoy (vs. 3.8% expected). The BoJ this morning follows a market moving ECB meeting yesterday where hawkish language was spun dovishly by Draghi in the press conference leading to a big round trip for the Euro and Government bonds. In terms of language, the most significant development yesterday was the ECB dropping the pledge to increase the asset purchase programme if needed following the policy meeting. Specifically the March statement removed the sentence “if the outlook becomes less favourable, or if financial conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation, the Governing Council stands ready to increase the asset purchase programme (APP) in terms of size and/or duration”. While a change to the easing guidance was expected, the complete removal rather than toning down or change in reaction function was a bit more of a surprise to markets. To be fair the press conference wasn’t hugely eventful but markets reacted in a way which suggested a more dovish Draghi. When questioned on the dropping of the pledge to increase stimulus Draghi said that it was long overdue (a way of perhaps downplaying the language) and also unanimous across the council. He confirmed that the removal reflects the fact that stimulus is an “unlikely contingency now” and emphasised the improved economic backdrop now compared to 2016 when guidance was initially tinkered. Away from that, there wasn’t much change in staff economic forecasts. For growth, GDP was revised up one-tenth to 2.4% for 2018 and left unchanged in 2019 and 2020 at 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. For inflation, CPI was left unchanged in 2018 at 1.4%, revised down one-tenth in 2019 to 1.4% and left unchanged in 2020 at 1.7%. Unsurprisingly the recent escalation in tariffs and protectionist rhetoric was bought up with Draghi saying that “we are convinced that disputes should be discussed and resolved in a multilateral framework and unilateral decisions are dangerous”. He also confirmed that the ECB would assess the response of the exchange rate on the tariff discussion”. The price action through the press conference is a little challenging to explain but clearly Draghi’s words and tone had a massive impact on changing the interpretation of the hawkish initial announcement. Indeed euro and bond yields first rose while equities sold-off however by the time Draghi was finished speaking much of those moves had fully reversed, before accelerating further in that direction into the European close. By the end of play, the euro had weakened -0.80% with a post meeting high to low range between 1.2298 and 1.2446. 10y Bunds finished 2.8bps lower at 0.625% with a post ECB range between 0.6236% and 0.700%. The ranges on BTPs and Spanish Bonds were 9bps and 8bps respectively. That weaker euro helped the likes of the Stoxx 600 and DAX to +1.05% and +0.90% respectively, as it gained from being broadly unchanged before Draghi spoke. In the US the S&P 500 fluctuated before ending +0.45% higher and Treasuries -2.6bps lower to 2.858%. Overnight, President Trump has signed a proclamation authorising a levy of 25% duty on imported steel and 10% on aluminium, with the tariffs to take effect in 15 days. He has also warned of more “reciprocal taxes” on imports from countries that charge higher duties on US goods. That said, the market seemed to have taken some comfort that Canada and Mexico is exempt from the tariffs due to their status as key regional allies and Trump’s comments of “…we’re going to be very flexible” and that “I’ll have a right to (go) up or down (on the level of tariffs) depending on the country and I’ll have a right to drop out or add countries...” In terms of initial reactions, House Speak Ryan noted “I disagree with this action and fear its unintended consequences” while Senator Flake noted the so-called flexible tariffs are a marriage of two lethal poisons to economic growth – protectionism and uncertainty. So with the central banks now out of the way the market divert its focus onto this afternoon’s employment report in the US. The consensus is for a 205k February payrolls number, which follows 200k in January. Our economists are slightly below the market at 185k, which they still expect will be enough to drive down the unemployment rate to 4.0% from 4.1% (market also expects a 4.0% reading). Arguably it’s the average hourly earnings print which is the bigger component focus for the market right now given the obsession with inflation. Both the market and our economists forecast a +0.2% mom print (which should lower than annual rate by one-tenth to +2.8% yoy, driven by base effects). Keep an eye on the data due out at 1.30pm GMT. The Fed’s Evans (1.40pm, 3.45pm and 5.45pm GMT) and Rosengren (5.40pm GMT) are both expected to speak on monetary policy and the outlook following the report so that’s worth also keeping an eye on. Finally onto Brexit. The EU Council President Tusk noted that “if in London someone assumes that the negotiations will deal with other issues first, before moving to the Irish (border) issue, my response would be – Ireland first”. DB’s Oliver Harvey believes that this is a negative and if agreement on Ireland has to happen before transition then the chance of getting to a transition deal this month are low. Notably, unnamed UK officials told Bloomberg that they now don’t expect a full Brexit deal by the end of the year. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the weekly initial jobless claims rose from last weeks’ 48 year low and was higher than expected at 231k (vs. 220k), while continuing claims was below market (1,870k vs. 1,919k expected). Elsewhere, a Fed report showed US household debt jumped 5.2% in 4Q, the fastest pace of this expansion while net worth rose $2.1trn to $98.7trn. Over in Europe, Germany’s January factory orders fell more than expected at -3.9% mom (vs. -1.8% expected) but annual growth was still solid at 8.2% yoy (vs 11.5% expected). The February Bank of France industry sentiment index was slightly above at 105 (vs. 104 expected) while the UK’s February RICS survey noted respondents had on net seen no change in home prices over the past three months and there was little expectation of change over the next three months. Looking at the day ahead, January trade data in Germany will be due along with January industrial production reports for Germany, France and the UK. In the US, the aforementioned February employment report will be out. Following that report, the Fed’s Rosengren and Evans will speak as mentioned earlier.
О том, что такой сценарий весьма вероятен, я написал вот здесь http://voprosik.net/v-chem-protivorechiya-tramp-i-klinton/ 10 месяцев назад, и объяснил – почему. В тот момент Трамп и ФРС обменялись двумя очень резкими выпадами, и уже тогда стало понятно, что только этим дело не ограничится. Трамп затаил обидку и решил действовать просто, не выдвигать Джанет Йеллен на очередной срок, […]
С чего обычно начинает свою деятельность новый шериф (начальник государственной исполнительной службы) в любом американском городе? Если ситуация из рук вон плохая, он укрепляет свою власть и показывает, кто в доме хозяин.
С чего обычно начинает свою деятельность новый шериф (начальник государственной исполнительной службы) в любом американском городе? Если ситуация из рук вон плохая, он укрепляет свою власть и показывает кто в доме хозяин.
Последнее время смотря на силу фунта, евро, йены к доллару невольно начинают появляться мысли, что есть какие-то закулисные договоренности между ЕЦБ, ФРС, Бнаком Англии и Банком Японии насчет курсов своих валют. Иначе просто сложно, например, объяснить силу фунта. Ставка в Великобритании сейчас находится на уровне 0.5%. Доходность по 2-х летним облигациям правительства Великобритании составляет 0.7%, а по Американским уже 2.2%. Почувствуйте разницу! А давайте посмотрим на реальные ставки, а не на номинальные. Тут еще интересней, инфляция в UK 3%, т.е. просидев год в облигациях, вы реально теряете почти 2.3%. Отличное вложение! Привлекательное! Можно предположить, что деньги идут на фондовый рынок. Смотрим на поведение британского индекса FTSE. Никакого роста там нет и в помине. (см. график ниже) Да, на уровне 1.20 фунт был слишком перепродан на месячном графике после падения с 1.72. Но как-то сильно затягивается отскок по времени. Никакой привлекательности у фунта нет. У меня просто мозг взрывается, когда читаю, очередной прогноз от западного инвестбанка о том, что надо покупать фунт, как он привлекателен и какой у него потенциал роста. Чем привлекателен??? О, Боги, подскажите мне, чем он привлекателен??? Тоже самое происходит с евро и с йеной! Чем они привлекательны??? По факту, доллар сейчас является одной из самых высокодоходных валют среди G10. Складывается впечатление, что исходя из каких-то закулисных договоренностей, доллар просто взяли и принудительно опустили. Конечно же есть какая-то координация между ведущими Цб мира. Приведу еще раз факты, которые 100% доказывают гипотезу о координации их действий! Кто возглавлял Банк Израиля с 2005 по 2013 год? Стэнли Фишер! А где было его следующее место работы? Он до последнего времени был вице-председателем ФРС!!! Кто возглавляет сейчас Банк Англии? Марк Карни! А где он до этого работал? Возглавлял Банк Канады!!! Как вам???? Про банк Японии и курс йена/доллар. Просто напомню про одну встречу, которая была прошлым летом. В Японию прилетал бывший глава ФРС Бен Бернанке и встречался с премьер-министром Абэ и главой Банка Японии Куродой. О чем интересно они говорили??? Думаю, что понятно, о чем был разговор. А то, что Бен — бывший глава ФРС, не имеет значение. «Бывших» в таких вопросах не бывает.И таких примеров очень много. Можно вспомнить соглашение в отеле «Плаза» в 1985 году, когда было принято решение об ослаблении доллара к основным валютам. Можно вспоминать и дальше. Всё это абсолютно открытая информация. Т.е. и раньше главные мировые ЦБ координировали свои действия между собой, а сейчас и подавно.Только представьте на минутку, как все эти ЦБ связаны между собой, если один и тот же человек может возглавлять ЦБ сначала одной страны, а потом другой. И, стало быть, до какой степени они сообща определяют мировую повестку дня и регулируют курсы валют?Хотя сейчас это дико непопулярная точка зрения, но мне кажется, что в какой-то момент нас ждет резкий и беспощадный рост доллара. Учитывая сентимент (писал в телеграмме про конференцию в Майами https://t.me/MarketDumki/166 ), что быков по доллару больше не осталось, разворот может произойти в любой момент, наподобие того, как произошла коррекция на американском рынке акций несколько недель назад.
Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog, If you wonder why things are going to get a lot worse before they get better---just consider the following tidbit from this week's political gleanings. It essentially cements the case that Washington is heading straight into a bond market conflagration that will wreak havoc on the Wall Street end of the Acela Corridor. It seems that the secret force inside the White House for Janet Yellen's reappointment last year, and source of Trump's favorable nods in her direction on several occasions, was none other than the scourge of the Yellen-loving Washington/Wall Street ruling class, Steve Bannon. That's right. In another new insider account of the Trump White House, we learn that: .......the former White House chief strategist and nationalist standard-bearer revealed that he urged Trump to reappoint former Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen....The former chief strategist had expressed concerns that a more hawkish Fed chairman could hinder economic growth. "The Breitbart posse is in love with Janet Yellen. If we get behind her, that is the signal of signals -- the realignment of American politics, ” Bannon told the book’s author, Bloomberg’s Joshua Green, in September, several months before he stepped down from the conservative media outlet. "Yellen’s my girl." As it happened, of course, Bannon got his walking papers. But Trump did end up with his "girl", albeit attired in Jerome Powell's trousers and tie. Still, the implications are staggering: The cult of central banking has now thoroughly buffaloed politicians from one end of the ideological spectrum to the other. Apparently, even the most intellectualized voice of anti-establishment populism of recent times does not know that "low interest rates" are not a gift for the state to properly give; and most certainly not the key to sustainable long-term growth. Indeed, if there were one single thing a Republican government could do to stop the nation's slide toward economic stasis, it would be to liberate the delicate mainspring of capitalism----the money and capital markets----from the suffocating and deforming rule of central bankers. The latter have destroyed honest price discovery, yet free market pricing of credit, carry, capital and risk is the sine qua none of vibrant capitalism and broad societal prosperity. To be sure, the mainstream GOP lost track of that cardinal truth decades ago during the reign of Richard Nixon. Tricky Dick famously slammed shut the US gold window at Camp David in August 1971, thereby defaulting on the US obligation to keep the dollar convertible at $35 per ounce and the world currency system anchored to the ultimate monetary asset. But the subsequent drift to fiat currency, dirty floats and the massive, worldwide expansion of central bank credit wasn't really Nixon's doing----even if it did, in the first instance, conveniently liberate the Fed to gun the US economy into Nixon's short-lived landslide of 1972. In truth, however, the evil genius behind the catastrophic error of Camp David was Milton Friedman, and his errand boy in Nixon's cabinet, George Schultz. The two were apostles of the free market when it came to commodities, wages, rents, goods, services and most anything else including gambling, prostitution and drugs. But not money. Friedman had been dead wrong about the Fed's culpability for the Great Depression of 1930-1933, and from that error he erected a theory of state control of money that eventually evolved into today's baleful regime of Keynesian central banking. To be sure, Friedman had an austere view of the job of central bankers that was akin to the Maytag repairman commercial of the era. They were to mostly sit around the Eccles Building reading book reviews and playing scrabble, while occasionally nudging the monetary deals to keep M1 growing at precisely 3.00% per annum. Get that modest job done right and you would have ebullient capitalist prosperity forever, world without end. The problem with this Friedmanite monetary postulate was two-fold: It was wrong in theory and impossible in practice! Thus, there is no possible fixed rule of monetary growth. As demographics, technology, enterprise and social mores change, among others, only the market can discern their impact on the optimum quantity and velocity of money. Likewise, in response to banking innovation the parameters of any given monetary aggregate can change substantially, making consistent measurement impossible. That happened, in fact, when overnight sweep accounts proliferated in the mid-1990s, thereby causing the level of "demand deposits" to drop by 50% or more and the growth rate of Friedman's M1 to be thrown into a cocked hat. Worse still, there was no chance that politicians on both end of Pennsylvania Avenue could possibly identify, nominate and confirm for service on the Federal Reserve Board the kind of monetary eunuchs Friedman's theory implied. Inexorably, therefore, the Fed became populated not with 3.00% M1 purists, but with bankers, academics and lifetime government apparatchik with an ax to grind. Arthur Burns was the first Fed chairman out of the gate after Camp David, and after obsequiously submitting to Nixon's demands for a booming election year economy in 1972, he spent the rest of his term attempting to repair his reputation----sending the US economy through violent cycles of boom and boost during the mid-1970s. Then came William Miller, erstwhile manufacturer of gears, pumps, helicopters and golf carts, who thought inflation was caused by high oil prices, not the prodigious expansion of central bank credit over which he presided. Fortunately, however, Paul Volcker knew better, mercilessly crushed the roaring commodity and wage inflation with 20% interest rates and earned the undying enmity of GOP pols, who tricked the Gipper into getting rid of him at the first opportunity (August 1987). Ironically, Ronald Reagan was a monetary antediluvian who really did believe in the gold standard. But, unfortunately, had neglected to read the fine print addendum to Alan Greenspan's resume. That was the place where he claimed to be a life-long hard money man whose goldbug views had never waivered from the days of Ayn Rand's salons, but had merely "evolved". As he told your editor at the time, he saw no reason why the FOMC couldn't be a next best substitute for the gold standard itself. Incidentally, at this same time in the summer of 1987, he also offered to sell his well-known economic consulting firm, Townsend-Greenspan, to your editor. As it happened, the due diligence didn't pan out. It seems that Townsend-Greenspan persistently lost money selling macroeconomic forecasts to corporate America, which were generally wrong. Alas, the money-making side of the firm was a prodigious flow of speech honorariums---a talent that didn't attach to the business unit on offer, and which was destined to become the essence of the Maestro of central banking. Needless to say, Greenspan's talent for financial bloviation was every bit as efficacious in the Imperial City as it had been during his decades hustling the Fortune 100. At length, he transformed Friedman's Maytag repairmen into a monetary politburo, and the Fed into an all-powerful vehicle of monetary central planning. In truth, there had never really been a dimes worth of difference between "saltwater" Keynesians of the Samuelson-Heller-Tobin generation and the "freshwater" monetarists of the Friedman school. At the core, they both believed that capitalism tended toward business cycle instability, and that unchecked this instability would eventually plunge the economy into a deathly depressionary spiral. In truth, capitalism makes errors and proficiently and timely corrects them. There is no cycling toward the drain or death wish toward depression. Moreover, as we demonstrated at length in The Great Deformation, the 1930's was a consequence of the monetary policy aberrations of the Great War and the Roaring Twenties, not the alleged cyclical instability of capitalism. In any event, the only original difference back in the day (1955-1987) was that first generation Keynesians thought activist counter-cyclical fiscal policy would cure this endemic maladay, while Friedman thought rule-bound monetary policy would do the trick. In this context, Greenspan became the great synthesizer and evangelist, too. He essentially tossed Friedman's 3% rule on the scrap heap in a fog of technical mumbo jumbo about the immeasurability of the monetary aggregates----even as took up the old fashioned mantle of Humphrey-Hawkins full employment as the essential mission of the Fed. And then he sold the whole package to the hapless GOP establishment. Henceforth, rather than being narrowly focussed on relative price stability and financial discipline as had been the Fed under the post-war greats----William McChesney Martin and Paul Volcker---the central bank's remit became plenary. Even the level of the stock market and the paper net worth of American society became fair game for its focus and intervention-----matters which were unthinkable even when Nixon's posse struck down the old monetary order at Camp David. The final inflection point came after the first Greenspan bubble crashed in the great dotcom meltdown of April 2000 and after. By all rights, the US economy should have taken its lumps after the unsustainable debt and financial asset fueled binges of the 1990's. But Greenspan was now in full-Humphrey-Hawkins modality, determined to use the crude tools of money market price-pegging and Fed balance sheet expansion to prevent a macroeconomic correction (aka recession). At length, he lowered the funds rate for 30 straight months, pushing it from 6.5% in November 2000 to an unheard of 1.0% by June 2003. Thereafter, logically and inexorably, came the great mortgage bubble, rampant housing price inflation, the Wall Street securitization and derivatives orgy and the Great Financial Crisis that flowed therefrom. By the time the dust had settled on Greenspan's exit in January 2006, the balance sheet of the Fed had grown from $200 billion to nearly $700 billion during his 19-year tenure. By contrast, by the lights of Friedman's fixed rule it should have been only $350 billion (3% per year); and under a regime of sound money it probably would not have grown at all. As we will address further in Part 3, the rise of the Asian mercantile exporters after 1980 meant that the US needed to pursue secular deflation of costs, prices and wages in order to remain competitive with the newly mobilized labor forces from the rice paddies of East Asia, not inflate its general price level by nearly 50% as it did during Greenspan's tenure. And the former is exactly what would have happened under a sound money regime, such as the classic gold standard. More importantly, not only did Greenspan implant an out-and-out Keynesian policy regime in the Eccles Building, but he also transplanted it into the mainstream Republican party itself. After all, you can't find a more by the books Keynesian than Ben Bernanke. Yet Greenspan ushered Bubbles Ben into the George W. Bush White House from his perch at the Fed to become the President's chief economic advisor. From there it was a short-leap to the Chairmanship of the Fed, and his hair-on-fire money-pumping campaign when the market again tried to correct the Fed's rampant housing and credit bubbles in September 2008. Fittingly, Bernanke's PhD had been supervised at MIT by Stanley Fischer, the leading second generation Keynesian economist of the modern era; and the topic had been the Fed's error, according to Milton Friedman, of not flooding the market with liquidity and buying up all the government bonds in sight during 1930-1932! In that context, Janet Yellen, the 1970 PhD student of James Tobin, fit into the Fed's top chair like a hand-in-glove. It was now a completely Keynesian/statist institution, and while she didn't get a second term, she might as well have. During his ceremonial swearing-in yesterday, here is what the Yellen in trousers and tie had to say: When I joined the Board of Governors in 2012, unemployment was 8.2 percent. Many millions of Americans were still suffering from the ravages of the crisis. Since then, monetary policy has continued to support a full recovery in labor markets and a return to our inflation target; we have made great progress in moving much closer to those statutory objectives. In addition, the financial system is incomparably stronger and safer, with much higher capital and liquidity, better risk management, and other improvements. Much credit for these results should go to Chairman Bernanke and Chair Yellen. I am grateful for their leadership and for their example and advice as colleagues. But there is more to the story than successful leadership. The success of our institution is really the result of the way all of us carry out our responsibilities. We approach every issue through a rigorous evaluation of the facts, theory, empirical analysis and relevant research. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The foundation of the US economy has been battered and bruised by 30 years of central bank suffocation. And, as we will elaborate upon in Part 3, there is no better evidence than the utter collapse of the net national savings rate. The latter measures it all: To wit, it's the sum of household, corporate and government net savings or dissavings. Compared to an average of 11% of national income during the heyday of US economic prosperity between 1954 and 1970, it has been in steady decline---which accelerated sharply after the era of Bubble Finance incepted in 1987. At present, the net national savings rate is barely 2%, but with the ill-timed explosion of Trumpian/GOP fiscal deficits, it is destined toward the zero bound and through to the negative side. So there is this: An economy that does not generate net national savings can't grow or even remain stable over the longer run. You can't borrow from the rest of the world forever. And that get's us to the great stinking skunk in the woodpile. The same Keynesians at the Fed who presided over the fiasco depicted in the chart below, have now determined to embark on a crushing regime of QT (quantitative tightening) in order to reload their dry powder and insure their hold on plenary financial power when the US economy next hits the skids. We think they are way too late. That's why there will be financial mayhem in the years ahead. However, by appointing Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, the bet noire of the ruling Keynesian-statist establishment, will end up bringing down the financial house of cards Washington has built over the last three decades. At least that much the Donald will surely accomplish before he is finally shown the way to his one-way trip on the Dick Nixon Memorial Helicopter. If we are lucky, both eventualities will materialize some time soon.
Another day, another rout in the USD index, with the Bloomberg dollar index sliding for the 4th consecutive day to the lowest level since December 2014 after Asian participants were able to react to yesterday’s comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, which he refused to deny in follow up Davos commentary on Thursday. With the dollar tumbling, the EUR hit a new three year high ahead of the ECB's policy decision this morning (full preview here) before stabilizing around 1.24 as investors wait to see if ECB President Draghi can stem its advance later today when explaining the central bank’s rate decision. Concerns about U.S. protectionism kept the dollar weak after its worst day in six months, but it was the ECB’s first meeting of 2018, and when it will end its 2.6 trillion euro stimulus programme, that was attracting attention. Another challenge facing policymakers is how to address the euro’s surge - it hit a three-year high of over $1.24 on Thursday - as this could dampen inflation and endanger the work done by years of unprecedented stimulus. The USDJPY treaded water just below 109, where a number of stops are said to be waiting. Kiwi dropped lower on weaker-than-expected 4Q CPI data only to pare losses as dollar selling resumes across the board. With offshore currencies surging it was a mixed picture across European stocks, as investors digested the weakening dollar and a protectionist push from the U.S. that helped spur declines in Asian equities. Still, not even the soaring Euro was enough to dent risk optimism, and Europe was trading modestly in the green, while S&P futures were about 0.2% higher at 2,847, just shy of all time melt up high. Germany's DAX underperforms as large trade union threatens walkout over wage negotiations. In Europe, media and travel companies dragged on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index after the MSCI Asia Pacific posted losses earlier. Tech names the underperforming sector this morning having taken the impetus from their US counterparts. Additionally, in terms of specific stocks, Aryzta is the worst performing stock after the company announced a profit warning, while Smith and Nephew sit at the top of the FTSE 100 following a broker upgrade at JP Morgan Chase. Top Stoxx 600 outperformers include: Elior Group +3.4%, Daily Mail & General Trust +2.9%, Smith & Nephew +2.9%, Elekta +2.8%, STMicro +2.4% Some additional developments out of Europe this morning: German Ifo Business Climate (Jan) 117.6 vs. Exp. 117.1 (Prev. 117.2) German Ifo Expectations (Jan) 108.4 vs. Exp. 109.4 (Prev. 109.5, Rev. 109.4) German Ifo Current Conditions (Jan) 127.7 vs. Exp. 125.4 (Prev. 125.4, Rev. 125.5) Norwegian Cenbank Rate Decision (N/A) 0.50% vs. Exp. 0.50% (Prev. 0.50%) The assessment of the outlook and the balance of risks suggested that the key policy rate would remain at 0.5% in the period ahead. The outlook and the balance of risks for the Norwegian economy do not appear to have changed substantially since the December Report. Japanese shares fell as the yen traded at the strongest since September; it’s one of a host of major currencies at elevated levels thanks to the dollar slump. The euro edged higher before the European Central Bank’s first policy decision of 2018, and after data showed improving business confidence in Germany. In Asian geopolitcs, North Korea is said to be calling for rapid improvement in North-South relations and said it will smash all challenges against reunification of the Korean peninsula. As pointed out last night, the onshore yuan strengthens toward the level before its one-off devaluation in August 2015, as the dollar heads for a three-year low. The onshore yuan rose 0.4% to 6.3335 after an overnight gain of 0.8%, the most since February 2016. At this rate the PBOC will need another Yuantervention soon. Following Lula's failure to get approval to run for president, the Brazilian real strengthened the most in eight months and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed for a tenth day, hitting the strongest on record. Dollar weakness continues to boost commodities: Bloomberg's index of raw materials is at the highest since October 2015, and gold traded at about the strongest in more than a year. Indeed, it was onward and upwards for commodity prices which have benefitted from the aforementioned USD weakness. Brent crude futures briefly took out the $71.00 handle. Elsewhere, gold rose to levels not seen since mid-2013 and copper also rallied despite the risk averse tone, as the greenback’s woes solely fuelled gains across the complex. Looking ahead, highlights include the ECB rate decision and press conference, US weekly jobs, Japanese CPI Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,846.50 Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.02% to 3648 MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.4% to 186.17 MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan down 0.07% to 608.34 Nikkei down 1.1% to 23,669.49 Topix down 0.9% to 1,884.56 Hang Seng Index down 0.9% to 32,654.45 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,548.31 Sensex down 0.3% to 36,044.24 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.08% to 6,050.02 Kospi up 1% to 2,562.23 German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.587% Euro up 0.1% to $1.2422 Italian 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 1.641% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.2 bps to 1.37% Brent futures up 0.4% to $70.78/bbl Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,359.70 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.06 Top Overnight News “I thought my comment on the dollar was actually quite clear yesterday, I thought it was balanced and consistent with what I said before” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told reporters in Davos Special Counsel Robert Mueller is moving at a far faster pace than previously known and appears to be wrapping up at least one key part of his investigation -- whether President Donald Trump obstructed justice, according to current and former U.S. officials The U.K. will be able to negotiate trade deals during the transition period, but those would not be applicable before the end of the transition, according to an EU official German business confidence unexpectedly improved to 117.6 in January, from 117.2 in December, suggesting Europe’s largest economy is off to a strong start IMF’s Lagarde Urges Mnuchin to Clarify Remarks on Weak Dollar Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index recovers after sliding to fresh lows in late Asia session EUR/USD steady after earlier rising as much as 0.4% to 1.2459 GBP/USD pares gains after rising to 1.4329 high; U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond said: “We’re very happy with where the currency is at the moment” EUR/NOK bounces off 100-DMA at 9.58; Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged at -0.5% and said the outlook and balance of risks for the Norwegian economy haven’t changed substantially since December NZD/USD climbs, shrugging off an unexpected inflation slowdown which sparked an immediate response of leveraged selling; NZ inflation slowed to 1.6% y/y in 4Q from 1.9% in 3Q; est. 1.9%; on annual basis, consumer prices rise 0.1% q/q; est. 0.4% China’s yuan has rallied so hard against the dollar it’s almost back to levels last seen before the 2015 devaluation A subdued tone was seen across Asia stock markets following a lacklustre lead from Wall St, where the Nasdaq underperformed on tech weakness and most major indices finished negative despite hitting fresh intraday all-time highs. ASX 200 (-0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) were lower in which Japanese exporters felt the brunt after USD/JPY briefly slipped to below 109.00, while losses in Australia were stemmed as miners benefited from the recent USD-induced commodity rally. Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) were cautious after the PBoC skipped open market operations and amid trade war concerns due to protectionist messages from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross at Davos. Finally, 10yr JGBs weakened on spill-over selling from their US counterparts and with demand also dampened by weaker 20yr auction results. PBoC skipped open market operations for today to safeguard bank liquidity stability, while it stated that targeted RRR cut is to offset reverse repo demand. Top Asia News Malaysia Raises Key Rate as Analysts Bet No More This Year Vietnam’s World-Beating Stock Market Reopens After Two-Day Halt China’s Yuan Nears Pre-Devaluation Levels as Rally Accelerates A Chinese Car Built in Western Europe? Geely Could Be First A majority of European bourses are trading with minor gains, aside from the DAX (-0.1%) which has faltered amid the rising EUR weighing on exporters. Tech names the underperforming sector this morning having taken the impetus from their US counterparts. Additionally, in terms of stock specific, Aryzta is the worst performing stock after the company announced a profit warning, while Smith and Nephew sit at the top of the FTSE 100 following a broker upgrade at JP Morgan Chase. Top European News Fingerprint Loses Nearly a Third of Value After Profit Warning German Business Confidence Jumps on Strong Start Into 2018 German Parties Weigh Diesel Hardware Fix in Blow to Automakers Polish Refiner Orlen Slumps on Margins Outlook After Record Year In FX, the selling of the dollar continued for a 4th day as Asian participants were able to react to yesterday’s comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who stated that USD weakness is good for the US in the short term. Overnight, the USD printed a fresh 3yr low after dipping through 89.00 and moving towards key support situated at 88.25 (50% Fib retrace of rally from 72.65 to 109.89). Subsequently, GBP continued its stellar gains to move above 1.43, while USD/CHF briefly broke through the 94.25/50 support area which has been in place for 2yrs. However, the USD has found some slight reprieve amid talk of suspected FX intervention in Asian currencies (CNH and JPY) and as such has reclaimed 89.00. As many begin to ask the question of potential currency wars, participants will look to Draghi’s post rate decision press conference on whether he will address recent EUR strength. Elsewhere, NZD had been hit by much weaker than expected Q4 NZ inflation data, which has prompted analysts to push back their rate hike expectations to mid-19. NOK relatively unfazed by the latest Norges Decision which saw the bank stand pat on rates and reiterate the findings of the December analysis In commodities, onward and upwards for commodity prices which have benefitted from the aforementioned USD weakness. Brent crude futures briefly took out the USD 71.00 handle, in terms of levels to the upside, 71.66 (50% Fib retrace of decline from USD 116.1 to USD 27.23 may provide near term resistance. Elsewhere, gold rose to levels not seen since mid-2013 and copper also rallied despite the risk averse tone, as the greenback’s woes solely fuelled gains across the complex. Looking at the day ahead, the main event is the ECB monetary policy meeting. President Draghi is scheduled to hold a press conference following the meeting outcome. Data releases include February consumer confidence and the January IFO readings in Germany, as well as the December advance goods trade balance, weekly initial jobless claims, December new home sales, December leading index and January Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index in the US. Before tomorrow morning Japan will print December CPI and publish the latest BoJ meeting minutes. Intel and Caterpillar are scheduled to release earnings with the latter always a good bellwether for the global economy. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 220,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.93m, prior 1.95m 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 53.8 10am: New Home Sales, est. 675,000, prior 733,000; MoM, est. -7.91%, prior 17.5% 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.5%, prior 0.4% 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 14, prior 14 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap It was a big day of headlines yesterday from the highest town in Europe as the news rolled down the mountain as destructively as me on skis and created reverberations around the financial world. Today we will need to switch some of the attention 1448 meters lower and 526km away as the ECB meeting in Frankfurt competes for headlines with the show in the snow in Davos. My impression of Davos events in the past is that they’ve generally not had much market moving newsflow associated with them. However as we’ll see below yesterday was an eventful day and we still have yet to see the main event which is Mr Trump addressing the gathering tomorrow after his arrival today. Before that, today we will hear from PM May on the UK’s relationship with Europe and EC President Juncker on a view from the heart of the EU. Before we jump into what was said in Davos, in terms of markets the end result was another rough day for the Greenback and a notable sell-off across the bond market that did rally back a bit before the close. On the former, the broad USD index closed last night down -1.03% for the biggest daily decline since June 2017. That is also the 8th down day for the Dollar in the last 10 trading days. On the other side of that, the Euro (+0.89%) closed at the highest level since December 2014 and Sterling (+1.73%) rallied to a new 19 month high after surging through $1.40, $1.41 and $1.42 over the last 24 hours and touching $1.43 this morning in the Asian session which makes the next 5th Avenue Apple store binge ever so slightly more tolerable. In fact every G10 currency rallied at least +0.50% yesterday against the USD while the only EM currency we could find which weakened (out of 23 pairs) was the Argentine Peso. So this was a broad dollar sell-off. Meanwhile in bonds, 10y Treasuries closed +3.3bps higher at 2.647% while long-dated 30y bonds were also +3.4bps higher at 2.929%. Yields in Europe were a few basis points higher while Gilts sold-off 5.4bps to hit the highest since February 2017. Gold (+1.29%) seemed to be the big beneficiary of the bond move. It was the comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin which appeared to trigger the latest tumble for the Dollar. Speaking in Davos, Mnuchin said to reporters that “obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities”. He also said that the short term value of the Dollar is “not a concern of ours at all”. As a reminder, these comments came a day after President Trump slapped tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines. Whilst not a material economic impact, it didn’t go unnoticed that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross also said in Davos that “trade wars are fought every single day” and that “a trade war has been in place for quite a little while”. Ross did however seemingly attempt to play down Mnuchin’s comments by saying that “he wasn’t advocating anything” and that “he was simply saying it’s not the world’s biggest concern to us right now”. The White House press secretary Sanders also softened the blow a bit later as well by praising a “stable” currency. However it’s certainly been a week of markets fearing a renewed protectionist push. Mr Trump’s speech tomorrow could be a key moment on this theme. DB’s Alan Ruskin noted the context in which Mnuchin made his remark matters a great deal and looks at least three ways in which context matters. Overall, Ruskin argues that it is going to be hard for the market not to conclude that the US FX policy extends beyond a simple benign neglect, to something a little more active in its encouragement of currency weakness. As a reminder, one Fed trade model cited by Stanley Fischer suggests a 10% USD TWI decline can support real GDP by 1.5% over 1 years, but add only 0.25% - 0.5% to core inflation over a year. Elsewhere, spooking the bond market seemed to be hedge fund mogul Ray Dalio’s echoing of Bill Gates recent comments, with Dalio saying that the bond market is now in a bear phase and that a “1 percent rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have ever seen since 1980 to 1981”. Dalio also said that he expects the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster than what they have forecast according to the dots and that he expects the solid growth environment to persist for another two years. As discussed at the top, today will see a lot of attention diverted towards the ECB meeting. Post the taper announcement last year it had looked like ECB meetings would be uneventful for much of the start of this year however the December ECB minutes and some of the subsequent news reports have at least added a fair bit of anticipation to today’s meeting. Our European Economists expect Mario Draghi to prepare the ground for changes to forward guidance at today’s press conference by differentiating policy expectations from the policy reaction function within forward guidance. The internal committees may be tasked with studying the options for guidance. Otherwise the team expect the January press conference to contain the same rhetoric as December – rising confidence but no change to the policy stance. EUR appreciation will probably be a talking point, however like in September, our colleagues anticipate tough rhetoric (the currency is “very important” to growth and inflation; volatility needs to be avoided). Given the momentum of the economy, the endogenous appreciation defense remains valid and the policy exit debate will remain live. A quick glance at our screens this morning and markets in Asia are broadly lower. The Nikkei (-1.08%), Hang Seng (-0.20%) and China’s CSI300 (-0.36%) are all down while the Kospi is bucking the trend to be up 0.93%. Elsewhere, HK’s H shares index may close lower for the first time in 20 consecutive days as it is down c0.7% as we type. President Trump said his plans to help rebuild the nation’s infrastructure “will probably end up being about $1.7trn” versus the $1trn figure he noted previously. More details of his infrastructure plans are expected in next Wednesday’s State of the Union address. Those moves in Asia follow a slightly divergent day for equities yesterday with Europe closing down and the US just about holding onto gains. The currency moves certainly appeared to more than play a part. The Stoxx 600 closed -0.50% to finish lower for the first time in a week while the DAX (-1.07%), CAC (-0.72%) and peripheral bourses also fell (0.5%-1%). The FTSE 100 (-1.14%) also felt the weight of the Sterling rally and had its worst day since October. By contrast the S&P 500 closed marginally lower (-0.06%) while the Dow rose 0.16% and Nasdaq fell 0.61%, weighed down by the softer result from Texas Instruments earlier. In commodities, WTI oil jumped 2.19% to $65.88/bbl after EIA data showed US crude stockpiles fell for the tenth week to the lowest level since February 2015. Brent oil also rose to $70.75/bbl – the highest since June 2015. Elsewhere, silver was up 2.95% and other base metals were all higher, partly benefiting from the weaker dollar (Copper +2.03%; Zinc +0.67%; Aluminium +0.65%). Away from markets and back to Davos, Germany’s Merkel warned against “right-wing populism” as it is “a poison that appears whenever you have unresolved problems”. She noted Germany has its own difficulties, such as “national polarization that we haven’t witnessed for decades” due to the financial crisis and migration. On globalisation, she said we need to be “patient and look for multilateral solutions rather than slip into the easier solution of pursing national interests, as unilateral solutions …simply promote isolation and protectionism”. Elsewhere, she stood firm on Brexit, noting “….the issue of access to the internal market is linked to freedom of movement…..we can’t make any compromises there”. Staying with trade, Canada’s Chief negotiator Verheul told Reuters he had “a constructive conversion” with his US counterpart re the NAFTA deal and will unveil ideas on how to meet a US demand for higher North American auto content soon. In our US economists note, they detail the political state-of-play for the NAFTA talks and provide an assessment of the potential impact on the US, Canadian, and Mexican economies in the unlikely event that a NAFTA breakup occurs. In the UK, Brexit Secretary Davis has signalled a desire for some kind of status quo post Brexit which may have helped Sterling yesterday. He noted Britain will stay close to EU’s regulatory regime after it leaves the EU bloc and sees his task as “…maintaining the maximum possible access to the European market..” and creating “the freedom” to allow the government to diverge later on if it choose to do so. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the December existing home sales fell 3.6% mom to 5.57m (vs. 5.70m expected), partly affected by lower housing inventory. The November FHFA house price index was also softer than expected at 0.4% mom (vs. 0.5%). Elsewhere, the January composite PMI was lower than last month’s reading at 53.8 (vs. 54.1), with a stronger manufacturing PMI (55.5 vs. 55 expected) offset by a lower than expected services PMI (53.3 vs. 54.3). The Eurozone’s January composite PMI was above market at 58.6 (vs. 57.9) and broadly consistent with a quarterly GDP growth of c1% in the Euro area. The manufacturing PMI fell from last month’s 21 year high to 59.6 (vs. 60.3 expected) but the services PMI was stronger than expected at 57.6 (vs. 56.4). Across the countries, there seemed to be a theme of weaker manufacturing PMI offset by stronger services PMI. In Germany, the composite PMI was above expectations and near the highest in c7 years at 58.8 (vs. 58.5 expected), with manufacturing PMI retreating from last month’s record high to 61.2 (vs. 63 expected) while the services PMI beat (57 vs. 55.5). In France, the composite PMI was also above market (59.7 vs. 59.2) with the weakness in manufacturing PMI offset by a stronger services PMI (57 vs. 55 expected). In the UK, labour market conditions remain strong with the November unemployment rate remaining at a 43 year low and steady at 4.3%, while the labour force employment change grew 102k (vs. -12k expected). Elsewhere, the average weekly earnings ex-bonus grew slightly more than expected at 2.4% yoy (vs. 2.3%) in the three months through November. Looking at the day ahead, the main event is the ECB monetary policy meeting. President Draghi is scheduled to hold a press conference following the meeting outcome. Data releases include February consumer confidence and the January IFO readings in Germany, as well as the December advance goods trade balance, weekly initial jobless claims, December new home sales, December leading index and January Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index in the US. Before tomorrow morning Japan will print December CPI and publish the latest BoJ meeting minutes. Intel and Caterpillar are scheduled to release earnings with the latter always a good bellwether for the global economy.
Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners, As most people know, the Kansas City Fed has been holding its annual symposium in Jackson, WY, for a very long time. Supposedly a draw for Paul Volcker’s fly fishing hobby when he was Chairman, the conference came to include heavyweights on a regular basis. Most of them, especially those in the early years, however, were duds. It wasn’t until 1985 that there was anything of real substance discussed, the topic finally the dollar six years after its great crisis had concluded. The most notable contribution to that one came from Paul Krugman who started his presentation noting that he was for five years by then confused and befuddled by its movements. Some things, it seems, never change (including those who refused to listen to Robert Solomon, also there in ’85). One of the more interesting gatherings took place in 1999. The year and the reasons need no introduction. What most people remember about 1999 can be summed up by the acronym NASDAQ. Try as they might, even central bankers and economists were feeling some desire, maybe need, to address the situation. The line up was a who’s who of top tier Economists: Alan Greenspan giving the introduction, Allan Meltzer talking zero inflation, Martin Feldstein fretting about currency, and Stanley Fischer actually recalling, “Well, everybody has his or her own view of what it is that Adam and Eve did in the Garden of Eden. Mundell’s version is that the original sin was that Eve told Adam about central banking, about the notion that you can create value with a stroke of the pen.” On top of all that there was the obligatory paper from Ben Bernanke (co-author with Mark Gertler). While not all talked about or focused on the dot-com bubble, the topic in general could not be avoided. Bernanke’s position was easily summed up: The principal conclusion of this paper has been stated several times. In brief, it is that flexible inflation-targeting provides an effective, unified framework for achieving both general macroeconomic stability and financial stability. Given a strong commitment to stabilizing expected inflation, it is neither necessary nor desirable for monetary policy to respond to changes in asset prices, except to the extent that they help forecast inflationary or deflationary pressures. It was, as you may recognize, typical Bernanke arrogance. In plain language he was saying “don’t worry, the Fed will easily fix whatever damage might result from a bubble with the flick of its federal funds target wand.” For him, there is never an upper limit for central banking. Greenspan, however, was more practical in his approach. He knew what it was that was always behind asset bubbles. It’s the same stuff that has worried central bankers from the very start: Collapsing confidence is generally described as a bursting bubble, an event incontrovertibly evident only in retrospect. To anticipate a bubble about to burst requires the forecast of a plunge in the prices of assets previously set by the judgments of millions of investors, many of whom are highly knowledgeable about the prospects for the specific companies that make up our broad stock price indexes. Who are we to argue with market prices? Well, history suggests there are times when we must. The issue isn’t really about confidence, rather it’s about what it is that so many people become confident about. Between the Asian flu low in early October 1998 and the 1999 Jackson Hole conference held at the end of that August, the NASDAQ rose 90%. From October 1999 to March 2000, it rose by another 85%. The former took about eleven months to achieve, the latter a mere five. In hindsight, it was clearly a blow-off top. There were many reasons for it, of course, as nothing is ever so simple, but in a lot of ways they all traced back to a similar idea. The no-profit startups represented in the NASDAQ were given value based on, as Greenspan said earlier in his presentation, discounted future cash flows. They had negative cash flows at the time, so everyone believed that positive value was derived more exclusively by what was sure to come further in the future. There was even by 1999 little evidence to support the idea. In fact, as far as earnings were concerned, there wasn’t any. Instead, it seems, people got the idea that the “new economy” was close at hand simply because it had been so long to that point without its appearance. Time worked in the bubble’s favor, which seems counterintuitive. If something doesn’t happen for a long enough period of time, it would be rational to conclude that it is has become more likely that isn’t going to. In the stock market, indeed all history’s asset bubbles, the common element is that the premise is always fixed, and therefore it gets amplified in the course of time. What I mean by that is people really believed the “new economy” of the computer/internet/telecom revolution just had to pay off, big time. There was no wiggle room on that assumption. The longer it went on without the payoff, indeed the more contrary evidence started to build up against it, the more (not less) certain people became that it was even closer to reality. If you believe wholeheartedly (emotionally) that it shouldn’t take more than five years for what you expect to occur, and it gets to the start of Year 5 without it having occurred, in this perverse sense you become even more confident that it’s right there in front of you (this thing is about to take off!!). Not only do you hold your bets that you made in the past, you might even add significantly to them at just insane valuations. After all, the thing survived through Year 4, so there is no way it could fail now. Asset bubbles are inefficient markets and in one sense these modern versions have turned the premise of efficient markets on its ear. As large and as deep as markets have become, they have also exhibited a startling tendency toward this kind of herding. And it’s no wonder, starting with the “maestro” himself. What was, after all, the Greenspan put? It wasn’t ever a real thing (dot-com bust and 2008 panic proved that conclusively), but it did reveal what was in the context of asset bubbles an irrational commonality. In other words, efficient markets as Greenspan described them in Wyoming in 1999 are predicated on millions upon millions of people reacting very differently to diverse and even conflicting data, and then bringing market prices to reflect a very broad consensus decision. What if, instead, a huge proportion of the market all starts believing in the same myth at the same time? And it didn’t have to be the Greenspan put, either. In a very important way, that was the least of it. By the late nineties in particular, economic forecasting had become more and more centralized. What was going on in the economy was described by the Federal Reserve first and foremost (how did markets react to the Chairman’s optimism, or really perceived optimism at any given event?). If stock investors were extremely confident about the “new economy” and all its massive benefits, where might they all have gotten that idea? Thus, if people were so sure the awesome potential was a real thing and that it had a chalk probability of lasting, the idea if it didn’t come directly from the Economists it was at least given an official seal of approval that at that time carried far more weight than was really rational. Just like the dot-com’s “new economy”, this current “boom” or “globally synchronized growth” doesn’t actually exist right now; it’s for tomorrow and people are absolutely certain that has to be the case in full part because Economists keep claiming with 100% certainty that very thing. Starting with central bankers, the characterization of every economic situation filters downhill from there. The economic malaise has gone on so long that there is zero chance it can go any longer, right? There is a pervasive top-down belief that the aftereffects of the Great “Recession” can only last until Year 10 (for instance), at most, and here we are starting Year 10. The big payoff must be tomorrow, or the next day. I can’t help but wonder if we aren’t just repeating the same process, only replacing “new economy” with “minimally functioning economy” this time around. It sure looks like a blow-off top to my eye, but as Keynes once said, paraphrasing, your clients will literally kill you before you find out for sure. As noted previously, though, at some point the boom will have to boom. But what if it doesn’t?
**Should-Read**: I disagree with the very sharp Gavyn Davies about the potential confirmation of the honorable and professional Marvin Goodfriend to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. I think he would be a bad choice. Gavyn does not: **Gavyn Davies**: [Marvin Goodfriend would be good for the Fed](https://www.ft.com/content/932b001f-e14d-378d-a975-b2c3d3e67f0c): "Prof Goodfriend has recently argued that the FOMC should explicitly compare its policy actions with the recommendations from... a rule... >...because this would reduce the tendency to wait too long before tightening policy. This places more emphasis on rules-based policies than Ms Yellen or Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer would like, but he is not really a hardliner on this debate. Overall, Marvin Goodfriend would be a very good appointment to the board. He is in no way a political crony, and would stand up for the Fed’s basic role in maintaining stable prices. He is less of a gradualist on interest rate changes than Ms Yellen, and he may lean towards earlier monetary tightening than the current regime. [Marvin Goodfriend](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/11/on-the-negative-information-revealed-by-marvin-goodfriends-i-dont-teach-is-lm-hoisted-from-the-archives.html) was one of those [so wrong](http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/11/in-which-i-try-and-fail-to-understand-the-current-state-of-right-wing-monetary-economics-hoisted-from-2014.html) about the state of the economy and about what good monetary policy would have been in the first half of the 2010s that :I...
Москва, 30 ноября - "Вести.Экономика". Марвин Гудфренд, уважаемый монетарный экономист и некогда критик Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) под председательством Джанет Йеллен, был выдвинут президентом Дональдом Трампом на пост губернатора центрального банка США, заявил Белый дом, пишет Bloomberg.
Марвин Гудфренд, уважаемый монетарный экономист и некогда критик Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) под председательством Джанет Йеллен, был выдвинут президентом Дональдом Трампом на пост губернатора центрального банка США, заявил Белый дом.
Марвин Гудфренд, уважаемый монетарный экономист и некогда критик Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) под председательством Джанет Йеллен, был выдвинут президентом Дональдом Трампом на пост губернатора центрального банка США, заявил Белый дом.
One of the Fed's recurring arguments meant to explain why the financial system is more stable now than it was 10 years ago, and is therefore less prone to a Lehman or "Black monday"-type event, (which in turn is meant to justify the Fed's blowing of a 31x Shiller PE bubble) is that there is generally less leverage in the system, and as a result a sudden, explosive leverage unwind is far less likely... or at least that's what the Fed's recently departed vice Chair, and top macroprudential regulator, Stanley Fischer has claimed. But is Fischer right? Is systemic leverage truly lower? The answer is "of course not" as anyone who has observed the trends not only among vol trading products, where vega has never been higher, but also among corporate leverage, sovereign debt, and the record duration exposure can confirm. It's just not where the Fed usually would look... Which is why in the excerpt below, taken from the latest One River asset management weekend notes, CIO Eric Peters explains to US central bankers - and everyone else - not only why the Fed is yet again so precariously wrong, but also where all the record leverage is to be found this time around. This Time, by Eric Peters “People ask, ‘Where’s the leverage this time?’” said the investor. Last cycle it was housing, banks. “People ask, ‘Where will we get a loss in value severe enough to sustain an asset price decline?’” he continued. Banks deleveraged, the economy is reasonably healthy. “People say, ‘What’s good for the economy is good for the stock market,’” he said. “People say, ‘I can see that there may be real market liquidity problems, but that’s a short-lived price shock, not a value shock,’” he explained. “You see, people generally look for things they’ve seen before.” “There’s less concentrated leverage in the economy than in 2008, but more leverage spread broadly across the economy this time,” said the same investor. “The leverage is in risk parity strategies. There is greater duration and structural leverage.” As volatility declines and Sharpe ratios rise, investors can expand leverage without the appearance of increasing risk. “People move from senior-secured debt to unsecured. They buy 10yr Italian telecom debt instead of 5yr. This time, the rise in system-wide risk is not explicit leverage, it is implicit leverage.” “Companies are leveraging themselves this cycle,” explained the same investor, marveling at the scale of bond issuance to fund stock buybacks. “When people buy the stock of a company that is highly geared, they have more risk.” It is inescapable. “It is not so much that a few sectors are insanely overvalued or explicitly overleveraged this time, it is that everything is overvalued and implicitly overleveraged,” he said. “And what people struggle to see is that this time it will be a financial accident with economic consequences, not the other way around.”
Die Welt Китай улыбается - и презирает Трампа Си Цзиньпин устроил Дональду Трампу по-настоящему королевский прием. Однако, если вчитаться в то, что пишет верная линии партии пресса, становится очевидным, как на деле китайское руководство относится к американскому президенту, пишет Die Welt. "Пекинское руководство невысокого мнения о президенте Трампе, но виду не подает, - утверждает автор публикации Джони Эрлинг. - Исключение было сделано в преддверии недавнего партийного съезда: пропагандисты генерального секретаря ЦК КПК Си Цзиньпина из Высшей партийной школы писали о том, что за границей никто и в подметки не годится Си и это отражает "превосходство" политической системы Китая". New York Times Трамп уступает мировое лидерство Китаю "На фоне той помпезности, которой председатель КНР Си Цзиньпин окружил приехавшего с визитом американского коллегу, президента Трампа, трудно не заметить, что два лидера - и две страны - идут в совершенно различных направлениях", - пишет обозреватель The New York Times Энтони Дж.Блинкен. "В то время как Трамп помешан на строительстве стен, Си занят наведением мостов", - отмечает он. Минюст США предложил Time Warner продать CNN Минюст США предложил конгломерату Time Warner продать несколько телеканалов, включая CNN, чтобы получить одобрение на слияние с телекоммуникационной компанией AT&T. Об этом пишет The New York Times со ссылкой на осведомленные источники. В качестве альтернативы минюст также предложил продать компанию DirecTV, входящую в конгломерат. Американское министерство обеспокоено сделкой AT&T и Time Warner, которая оценивается в $85,4 млрд, поскольку ищет нарушения антимонопольного законодательства. Project Syndicate Опасности ФРС под управлением Трампа Президент Дональд Трамп пытается радикально изменить американскую налоговую, торговую и иммиграционную политику. В октябре вышел на пенсию вице-председатель ФРС Стэнли Фишер, поэтому в Совете управляющих ФРС вакантными стали уже три места из семи. Перед Трампом открывается уникальная возможность поставить данное учреждение под свой контроль. ВВС США выделяют $4,6 млрд на противодействие "российской агрессии" Комитеты сената и палаты представителей США по вооруженным силам решили выделить 5 млрд долларов на "противодействие российской агрессии". Общий военный бюджет, согласно законопроекту, составит рекордные 700 млрд - это почти на 15 процентов больше, чем в прошлом году. На размещение войск в Европе ("Европейскую инициативу сдерживания") выделяется 4,6 млрд долларов. Это делается, чтобы "успокоить союзников НАТО и укрепить позиции США по сдерживанию и защите в Европе", говорится в документе. Gazeta.ru Goldman Sachs приобрел часть акций «Северстали» Американский банк Goldman Sachs приобрел у Pearlgreen Limited 2,1% акций компании предпринимателя Алексея Мордашова «Северстали». Об этом сообщает RNS. Как стало известно, стоимость одной акции в рамках сделки составила 885,35 руб., а стоимость одной Глобальной депозитарной расписки (ГДР) - $14,97. РБК Boeing подписал контракт с Китаем на $37 млрд в ходе визита Трампа Boeing поставит в Китай 300 самолетов на сумму $37 млрд - соответствующий контракт был подписан в Пекине между американской компанией и китайской государственной China Aviation Suppliers Holding Company (CASC) в присутствии президента США Дональда Трампа и лидера Китая Си Цзиньпина, сообщается на сайте Boeing. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTrade Источник: FxTeam
Barry Eichengreen: Trade Policy and the Macroeconomy, by Barry Eichengreen, IMF: It’s an honor and privilege to have been asked to deliver the Mundell-Fleming Lecture. It’s also a bit intimidating. I won’t read off the entire list of luminaries who...
1. Относительно руководства ФРС и вообще происходящего процесса.FOMC (комитет по операциям на открытом рынке, который принимает решение по ставкам) состоит из 12 человек, которые определяют монетарную ситуацию в США: 7 членов Совета управляющих ФРС + глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка + 4 руководителя региональных резервных банков (регулярно меняется состав). Таким образом, есть 8 постоянных членов FOMC и 4 регулярно меняющихся.На данный момент Совет управляющих ФРС состоит из 4 (Йеллен, Брейнард, Пауэл, Кварлс) + 3 вакантных места, если Йеллен уходит (у нее срок до 2024 года формально, но учитывая предшествующий уход Фишера и она скорее всего уйдет), из 7 мест вакантными будут 4 места из 7.Пауэл и Кварлс – продвинутые республиканцами кандидатуры (первый в результате политического торга Обамы и республиканцев, второй уже в этом году в условиях доминирования республиканцев в Конгрессе), кстати, по иронии судьбы оба в прошлом из Carlyle Group. Таким образом, уже двое, в том числе глава ФРС утверждены республиканцами. Особенность ситуации в том, что Трамп и республиканцы могут заполнить ещё 3, а при уходе Йеллен 4 вакансии в Совет управляющих ФРС, т.е. половину общего состава FOMC и 3/4 (6 из 8) постоянного состава. Это означает, что республиканцы получат действительно уникальные возможности влияния на политику ФРС, как мне кажется, рынки сейчас совершенно недооценивают риски складывающейся конструкции и грядущего роста волатильности…2. Глава ключевого в системе ФРС резервного банка ФРБ Нью-Йорка У. Дадли объявил о том, что уйдёт раньше срока в середине 2018 года. Таким образом, ФРС покинет один из основных архитекторов монетарной политики последнего десятилетия и сменится ещё один постоянный член FOMC (зам. главы комитета). Т.о. к середине года мы увидим полное обновление всего ключевого руководства ФРС. Будет крайне интересно…********Впрочем, Трамп официально объявил, что назначит главой ФРС Гора Джерома Пауэлла взамен Джанет Йеллен. Трамп выбрал Джерома Пауэлла новым главой ФРС?Москва, 2 ноября - "Вести.Экономика". Еще несколько месяцев назад Джером Пауэлл считался слишком жестким в отношении банков, чтобы привлечь внимание Дональда Трампа к своей кандидатуре на пост главы ФРС. Теперь, судя по всему, именно он займет кресло Джанет Йеллен. Впервые о том, что Трамп выбрал Пауэлла, написала газета Wall Street Journal. Затем эту информацию подтвердило издание Bloomberg, ссылаясь на источники. В Белом доме и ФРС эту информация не подтверждает, сам Пауэлл также молчит, но, как ожидается, официальное объявление состоится в четверг.На прошлой неделе Трамп отметил, что у него на примете "кто-то очень специфический" для этой работы."Это будет человек, который, надеюсь, выполнит фантастическую работу, - сказал Трамп. – Я думаю, что все будут очень впечатлены".При этом источники западных СМИ предупреждают, что Трамп еще может передумать.Джером Пауэлл станет первым бывшим инвестиционным банкиром, который станет председателем ФРС, и первым кандидатом, не являющимся экономистом в 40 лет.Пауэлл является губернатором ФРС. Вступил на пост 25 мая 2012 г., повторно назначен 16 июня 2014 г. на срок, заканчивающийся 31 января 2028 г. До своего назначения в совет управляющих Пауэлл был приглашенным ученым в Центре политики Бипартиса в Вашингтоне, округ Колумбия, где сосредоточился на фискальных вопросах федерального уровня и уровня штата. С 1997 по 2005 гг. был партнером Carlyle Group.Пауэлл служил помощником секретаря и заместителем министра финансов при президенте Джордже Буше, отвечая за политику в отношении финансовых институтов, рынка долговых обязательств казначейства. Николас Ф. Брэди, бывший коллега Dillon, Read & Co., был тогда секретарем казначейства. До прихода в администрацию Буша он работал юристом и инвестиционным банкиром в Нью-Йорке. В 1985 г. Пауэлл был помощником Dillon Read, и во время его утверждения сенатом в сентябре 1990 г. он был старшим вице-президентом фирмы. Пауэлл был назначен в совет управляющих ФРС президентом Бараком Обамой и Джереми Штейном. Назначение Штейна ранее было приостановлено. Пауэлл был назначен на другой срок в январе 2014 г. наряду со Стэнли Фишером и Лаэлем Брейнардом. Работа Пауэлла часто фокусировалась на вопросах финансового регулирования.Он также, вероятно, будет самым богатым руководителем ФРС: активы Пауэлла оцениваются в диапазоне $21-61 млн в соответствии с данными по раскрытию финансовой информации, так как должностные лица должны оценивать стоимость своих различных активов. О процентных ставкахПауэлл поддерживает политику Йеллен по постепенному повышению процентных ставок, если экономика будет расти, как прогнозировалось.В своих публичных высказываниях он озвучил оптимистичную точку зрения, заявив, что ожидает достижения цели по инфляции в 2%, экономический рост останется стабильным, и уровень безработицы будет падать дальше. ИНФОГРАФИКАСтавка ФРС США и динамика 10-летних гособлигаций с 1982 годаО сокращении портфеля ФРСВ сентябре Пауэлл проголосовал за начало многолетнего процесса сокращения баланса ФРС на $4,5 трлн.Как и Йеллен, Пауэлл сказал, что ФРС может прибегнуть к новым раундам покупок активов в случае кризиса, если экономике нужно будет больше стимулов.Ввод новых активов на баланс ФРС должен быть вариантом "только в чрезвычайных обстоятельствах", сказал он в феврале. Активы на балансе ФРС США vs денежная масса М2 с 1970 годаО правилах денежно-кредитной политикиПауэлл присоединился к нескольким его коллегам из ФРС, предупреждая о том, что нельзя полагаться слишком сильно на математические правила, такие как правило Тейлора для изменения денежно-кредитной политики. Это может поставить его в противоречие с республиканцами конгресса, которые подтолкнули ФРС принять такую формулу, пытаясь сделать политику ФРС более прозрачной и предсказуемой."Простые правила политики широко считаются интересными и полезными, но представляют собой лишь небольшую часть анализа, необходимого для оценки соответствующего пути политики, - сказал он. - Я не могу думать о какой-либо критической, сложной человеческой деятельности, которая может быть сведена к простому сводному уравнению". О законе Додда - ФранкаПауэлл выразил готовность облегчить часть бремени, налагаемого на финансовые учреждения, в соответствии с законом Додда - Франка от 2010 г.Выступая перед законодателями в июне, Пауэлл сказал, что он изучает смягчение правила Волкера, запрещающего банкам делать слишком рискованные инвестиции.Он также сказал, что было бы целесообразно облегчить некоторые ежегодные стресс-тесты, которые должны выполнять крупные банки.Пауэлл также призвал пересмотреть новые надзорные требования, предъявляемые к советам банков после кризиса. По его мнению, роль совета "заключается в надзоре, а не управлении".Это, как он сказал в речи 2015 г., означает, что управляющие не должны быть обременены "постоянно растущим контрольным списком". О Fannie Mae и Freddie MacПауэлл призвал конгресс пересмотреть систему финансирования жилья, заявив, что он хотел бы, чтобы две крупные компании по ипотечному финансированию страны, Fannie Mae и Freddie Mac, вышли из-под государственной опеки. Частный капитал в этих компаниях снизил бы риск того, что в случае нового кризиса спасать их вновь придется налогоплательщикам.Хотя ФРС не несет ответственности за жилищное финансирование, она контролирует некоторые из крупнейших кредиторов страны, которые часто продают свои кредиты двум агентствам. "Ни один институт жилищного финансирования не должен быть слишком большим, чтобы обанкротиться", - сказал он.Подробнее: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/93273
Еще несколько месяцев назад Джером Пауэлл считался слишком жестким в отношении банков, чтобы привлечь внимание Дональда Трампа к своей кандидатуре на пост главы ФРС. Теперь, судя по всему, именно он займет кресло Джанет Йеллен.
кто-то будет первым, но не я… (песня) Как сообщают СМИ, Citigroup удалось сделать своего бывшего вице-председателя, президента Citigroup International и главу по работе с госструктурами, гражданина Израиля Стэнли Фишера замом Джанет Йеллен. Это лучше, чем неуклюжая попытка финансового монстра пропихнуть в ФРС Саммерса ВМЕСТО Йеллен. Это, конечно, глупая ШУТКА. Думаю, что сегодня даже сам Стиглиц не решился бы повторно обвинить Фишера в его согласии работать на Citigroup и высказать подозрения в конфликте интересов. Если верить СМИ, то сама бабушка Йеллен сначала уговорила Фишера стать самым могущественным (после нее) человеком в мире. Потом она сама попросила Белый дом номинировать Фишера на пост ее зама. Почему эта номинация "голубя" Фишера сулит счастье? Потому что ФРС становится еще более предсказуемым и надежным, а это в сегодняшнем хрупком мире, ослабленном глобальным финансовым кризисом, очень важно для всех стран и народов. С весенними попытками тэйперинга в ФРС мы увидели, насколько недостаточно полагаться на способности ФРС объяснять, что же цб Америки планирует делать (forward guidance). Для укрепления доверия к ФРС важно верить еще и в квалификацию руководителей цб, их опыт и умение дипломатично доносить сложные мысли до всех-всех-всех слушателей. Йеллен сама обладает этими нужными качествами, но у нее нет такого обширного международного опыта и связей, как у Стэнли Фишера. Она знает, как управлять США, но хуже знает, как управлять всем миром. Фишера же прекрасно знают в Москве, Бразилии, Мехико, Стамбуле и Сеуле, как и во всех других блее или менее важных столицах. Его будут внимательно и доброжелательно слушать центральные банки всего мира. Очень важно, что своего бывшего научного руководителя будет слушать Марио Драги, как и его коллеги, не говоря уже о лицах, принимающих решения в ФРС. Фишер - опытный прагматик, который в период всемирной тряски доказал в цб Израиля, что готов идти на неординарные и даже противоречивые меры, если считает их эффективными. В этом появляется бОльшая предсказуемость политики ФРС. На картинке и записи Гавина Дэвиса в ФТ видно, как гадают инвесторы и все заинтересованные лица о раскладе сил в ФРС. Как я уже записывал здесь, 2014 год понятен и обещал быть счастливым. Теперь же мощный тандем бабушки Йеллен и дедушки Фишера при ее лидирующей роли еще больше укрепляет эти ожидания на 2014 и на будущие годы. "Умеренные голуби" в ФРС пусть здравствуют и обеспечивают финансовую стабильность в мире.
Глава Банка Израиля Стэнли Фишер считает, что мир как никогда близок к рецессии. На его взгляд, решение Федеральной резервной системы США начать очередной этап количественного смягчения своевременно."Несмотря на значительный прогресс в попытках восстановить мировую экономику, эффект от них еще не проявился", - заявил Фишер.Он также поддержал решение ФРС не устанавливать конкретную дату завершения программы и максимальную сумму покупок облигаций. Однако, на его взгляд, несмотря на то что это решение упрощает задачу, оно может помешать достижению целей."Мы очень близки к глобальной рецессии. Мир сталкивается с замедлением экономического роста. Европа находится в состоянии технической рецессии, а экономика США, скорее всего, вырастет менее чем на 2% в течение следующих нескольких месяцев", - отмечает Фишер.