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25 мая, 05:40

The Trump Collapse Scapegoat Narrative Has Now Been Launched

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com, Last week was a rather crazy one for the news feeds, with cyber attacks and “Comey memos” and a host of other wild mayhem, it may have been difficult for many people to keep track of it all. That said, there was one event that I think went partly under the radar, and I think it is an important signal for anyone concerned with the ongoing process of economic collapse in the U.S. Generally, the American public holds very little vigilance when it comes to economics. They are distinctly unaware of fundamental indicators such as commodities demand, energy usage, manufacturing, imports, exports and international shipping, etc. What they do take note of, and what the mainstream news will tell them about in 30 second blurbs, is the state of unemployment and whether stock markets were down for the day or up for the day. These two “indicators” are the extent of the average person’s exposure to fiscal health. This is why the Federal Reserve and the establishment have been meticulous over the past several years in their efforts to keep employment statistics highly manipulated to the positive side and why they have been injecting untold trillions into stocks around the world through various measures including no cost overnight loans. However, over the past couple of years something has changed. As I warned they would do in 2015 in my article The Real Reasons Why The Fed Will Hike Interest Rates, central banks including the Fed have been backing off of stimulus measures and they have now begun a series of interest rate hikes. Look at it this way — imagine the economy has a terminal disease and the only thing keeping it alive is a highly addictive drug called “free money.” It’s a rather terrible life, barely worth living, but the economy still has a faint pulse as long as the drug is administered. Now, what would happen if the Fed suddenly cuts off the drug supply? Well, the economy will die in a very frantic and horrible way. Low interest rates and Federal Reserve loans represent the purest form of the free money drug, even more so than the bailouts and QE. And now, those interest rates are rising, and the drug is being taken away. These marginal rate hikes might not seem like much — .25 basis points here and .25 basis points there. And they are not much, unless you are a corporation borrowing billions of dollars at a time so that you can stave off your exposure to quadrillions in derivatives debt and so that you can purchase massive shares in your own stock to keep its value artificially elevated. Cycling this borrowed cash and paying the Fed back is rather easy for such corporations as long as the loans are essentially free. But when they have to start paying interest on that cash, even at a low rate, the costs add up at lightning speed. ANY interest rate hikes in this environment make borrowing from the Fed untenable for corporations seeking to prop up their stocks and the stock market at large. In my estimation, based on previous Fed measures such as the removal of QE from the system in 2014, it takes around six to eight months for the effects of policy shifts by the Fed to become visible on the main street economy and in equities. I believe we are about to see the effects of interest rate hikes on our system within the next couple of months. I put very little value in stock markets as an indicator of anything. In reality, stocks are a fraudulent circus based on perceived value and perceived demand rather than true value and demand. In most cases, stocks crash in the FINAL phase of an economic collapse, not in the beginning phase. If you decide to start preparing for a crisis after a stock market decline then you are probably too late. I am revisiting this topic here because I want to remind people that the full and tantamount blame for any economic crisis (and the final phase market crash) in the near future is placed on the Federal Reserve and international banks. All future shocks to the financial system were made possible because the establishment and the Fed have gutted our economy, stuffed it with the fluff of fiat stimulus and left it to lumber aimlessly since 2009. Now, because of the Fed’s efforts, stocks have been rising for quite some time with only a few moments of obstruction, due again, to their policy shifts. These efforts have conjured a 20,000 point Dow Jones, but nothing else positive for the economy. The one constant, though, has always been low interest rates. With interest rates increasing, I would point out that market behavior has changed. The meteoric rise has stalled. In the past few months stocks have barely budged 1 percent either up or down per week. Except for last week when something strange happened; markets suddenly dropped nearly 400 points in a single day. Why? Well, that is a subject up for debate, but the majority of mainstream news outlets will tell you that it was all Donald Trump’s fault. I have been warning since long before the election that Trump’s presidency would be the perfect vehicle for central banks and international financiers to divert blame for the economic crisis that would inevitably explode once the Fed moved firmly into interest rate hikes. Every indication since my initial prediction shows that this is the case. The media was building the foundation of the narrative from the moment Trump won the election. Bloomberg was quick to publish its rather hilariously skewed propaganda on the matter, asserting that Trump was lucky to inherit an economy in ascendance and recovery because of the fiscal ingenuity of Barack Obama. This is of course utter nonsense. Obama and the Fed have created a zombie economy rotting from the inside out, nothing more. But, as Bloomberg noted rightly, any downturn within the system will indeed be blamed on the Trump administration. Fortune Magazine, adding to the narrative, outlined the view that the initial stock rally surrounding Trump’s election win was merely setting the stage for a surprise market crash. I continue to go one further than the mainstream media and say that the Trump administration is a giant cement shoe designed (deliberately) to drag conservatives and conservative principles down into the abyss as we are blamed by association for the financial calamity that will occur on Trump’s watch. Last week’s sudden market bloodletting is important in this regard; 400 points down is hardly a flesh wound to a 20,000 point Dow, but the media’s reaction to it was very revealing on what the future has in store. Multiple news outlets responded by immediately connecting the drop to Trump and the absurdity surrounding the “Comey memo” — a memo which no one in the public has seen proof of. The claim is that this level of turmoil around Trump might lead to impeachment and that the threat of impeachment would kill the stock market bounce which the media also claims was driven by Trump’s promises of corporate tax cuts. It's a lie built on another lie. It is interesting to me that the mainstream media never said the market drop was caused by “Comey’s turmoil,” or by “The Washington Post and The New York Times’ turmoil.” No, they called it “Trump’s turmoil.” Last week’s stock dive was, in my opinion, the official launch of the Trump collapse narrative. The establishment was beta testing it for months, but now, the program has gone live. Every single stock decline from now on, as well as the ultimate economic crash, which will become visible to the public in short order, will be blamed on Donald Trump and conservatives by extension. As I said, he is the perfect scapegoat. I have been very critical of Donald Trump recently, and it is my view, according to the evidence and his swift retraction of nearly every promise he made to the voters during his campaign, that Trump is controlled opposition. But, I would never lay the blame for our fiscal decline at his feet. Trump does not have the power to create that kind of disaster; only the global banks have that power. I’ll say it again — the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates into a major financial downturn. This will be the trigger for the next phase of collapse, not any drama surrounding Donald Trump. Everything else, from Comey to North Korea, is distraction. The Fed has done this before. In fact, the Fed has a habit of raising interest rates at the onset of economic instability or right in the middle of a downturn, as it did in 1928-1929 triggering the Great Depression, and in 1931, adding fuel to the fire of financial catastrophe. These particular catalyzing policy actions are partly what Ben Bernanke was referring to on Nov. 8, 2002, in a speech given at "A Conference to Honor Milton Friedman, the Paul Snowden Russell Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus, On the Occasion of his 90th Birthday.” “In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.   Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.” Ben Bernanke finished his astonishingly honest assessment with a lie. They are indeed doing it again… but this time they have made sure they have a president and an entire political ideal to blame it on.

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24 мая, 18:28

The Manchester Attack and the Difficulty of Prevention

What does it mean that the bomber was “known to security services”?

24 мая, 17:38

New Home Sales In Focus

New Home Sales In Focus

24 мая, 17:10

New Home Sales Fall 11.4%, Worse than Expected

Analysts had been looking for a much more modest 1% drop.

24 мая, 14:06

Why China's Slick Strategy to Dominate the South China Sea Is Working

Michael Vatikiotis Security, Asia And is unlikely to be challenged. A year ago, there were real fears that contested claims over tiny specks of coral in the South China Sea could spark a war in Southeast Asia involving China, the 10 ASEAN member states and the US. The risks greatly multiplied after a special tribunal convened in The Hague under the Law of the Sea ruled in July 2016 that China’s territorial claims in Philippine waters had no legal basis. What has transpired since then demonstrates the pragmatism of regional states, the limited extent of US influence in Asia, and says a lot about how China intends to wield power. There was some dangerous brinkmanship in the lead-up to the July ruling. The US and China postured aggressively, using a mixture of rhetoric and sabre-rattling. China showed no sign of backing down from its claims, swiftly building runways and installing weaponry on some of the disputed islands. The US sailed warships and flew aircraft close to some of the islands, claiming the right to conduct freedom of navigation operations. For ASEAN member states, these belligerent maneuvers were deeply unsettling. Much as China’s militarization of the South China Sea alarms the littoral states, there’s no desire to either pick a fight or choose sides. Nor was there much faith in the Obama administration’s much-touted pivot towards East Asia. The US expected ASEAN to stand up to China and wholeheartedly endorse the Law of the Sea tribunal’s ruling, but some governments were unsure whether the US had their back in case China refused to comply. Instead, under heavy pressure from Beijing, ASEAN blinked and issued a series of watered-down statements—or took no position at all. Against this volatile background, there was considerable relief when towards the end of 2016 Rodrigo Duterte, the maverick newly elected President of the Philippines, who campaigned on taking a firm stand against China, unexpectedly decided to shelve the ruing and vie for better relations with Beijing. What happened next was instructive about China’s behaviour towards the region. First, China’s belligerent tone subsided. Next, Chinese officials fanned out across the region, offering bilateral cooperation on maritime security. Then, to everyone’s surprise, Beijing promised progress on a code of conduct for the South China Sea—a quest that’s been languishing for more than a decade. Read full article

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24 мая, 14:00

The World's Largest Retailers 2017: Amazon & Alibaba Are Closing In On Wal-Mart

Amid a rash of retail bankruptcies and store closings, the online giants are continuing to swiftly and unapologetically gain ground.

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24 мая, 13:00

Apple Extends Swift Programming Education Program To High School And Community Colleges

Apple announced it is expanding its Swift education program the company kicked off last year targeted to younger students, called “Learning To Code”, now to high schoolers and community college students. Will this new move put middle-America back to work?

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24 мая, 11:40

SWIFT запускает новую функцию отслеживания платежей

Tracker доступен через открытый API-интерфейс и может быть интегрирован в банковские системы по всему миру.

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23 мая, 14:00

Theresa May’s U-turn is a chance to rethink social care | David Brindle

The swiftly introduced cap on care liability underlines the need for a green paper that deals with the quality of care, not just the costWere it not so serious, the Conservatives’ remarkably ham-fisted approach to deciding how we should pay for care and support in our old age would win high marks for entertainment value. How did they miss the signs warning: “Danger – quicksand”? Related: Theresa May ditches manifesto plan with 'dementia tax' U-turn Continue reading...

23 мая, 12:31

French unions urge Macron not to rush through labor reform

PARIS (Reuters) - French unions urged President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday not to try to hustle through his labor reform plans this summer, in contrast with calls from the main employers' group for swift measures to reinforce rising business optimism.

23 мая, 03:45

Why The Chinese Yuan Won't Be The World's Reserve Currency

Authored by Valentin Schmid via The Epoch Times, Whenever someone gets too big and too important, the other players who can’t compete by themselves call for a challenger. This is true in sports, business, and even for currencies. Because the dollar is so big and important, smaller countries were happy when the euro was launched to provide a counterbalance, if not to challenge the dollar’s position outright. The euro ultimately provided that counterbalance, but never managed to dethrone the dollar as the world’s foremost reserve currency. The euro is used in 30 percent of all global payments, according to payment provider SWIFT; the dollar is still number one, at 40 percent. But what about the Chinese currency, the yuan, the one that investment bank HSBC predicted would become the third-largest global trade currency by 2015—is it the ultimate challenger to the dollar’s top status? Not so much. Only 16 percent of Chinese trade is settled in yuan, or renminbi (RMB), and the share of global payments ranks sixth at only 1.78 percent, behind the dollar, euro, pound, yen, and even the Canadian dollar. To be fair, China’s leadership never called for the yuan to overtake the dollar. It was mainly Western cheerleaders like HSBC that looked at the country’s economic growth and applied it to the currency.  Many pundits also thought the yuan would take a stronger role after Donald Trump’s election last November. “No longer is the U.S. dollar the only haven of safety. There is an alternative—renminbi,” Daryl Guppy, CEO of the Guppytraders financial market training platform, told CNBC in November.  Reserve Qualities But what does a currency have to be or do to become the world’s reserve currency? Will the yuan ever qualify, and is the Chinese leadership pushing to replace the dollar? According to a report by investment bank Natixis, there are four functions a successful currency needs to fulfill for both the private and the public sectors. The first is being a medium of exchange. For private sector payments, we already saw that the RMB’s share is minuscule compared to the euro and dollar. Even the RMB’s use in trade with and investment into China is relatively small and no longer growing, according to the report.   Public sector payments between governments and central banks are conducted via central bank swap lines. They allow central banks of different countries to issue money that is not their own. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, the Federal Reserve provided the world’s central bank with as much as $620 billion in liquidity. China’s swap lines amount to $430 billion, but are hardly ever used.   The second function is being a store of value, so that private players can invest their money in yuan assets like stocks and bonds and preserve their purchasing power. Also here, foreign ownership of Chinese equities is not very large, at around 0.8 percent, and for Chinese bonds, only slightly larger at 2 percent. Foreign bank deposits and loans into China have also been falling since 2014.   For the public sector store of value, that is, global central banks’ holding of foreign currency, the yuan’s share is 1 percent, despite the admission to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) special drawing rights (SDR) basket late in 2016. The dollar still takes the lion’s share at 64 percent.   The third function is the so-called unit of account. This means that trade invoices, for example, are issued in RMB and then paid in RMB rather than dollars. Also here, even for Australia, one of China’s biggest trading partners, only 0.5 percent of exports to China are invoiced in RMB.   For the official unit of account, another country would need to peg its currency to the RMB, but given China’s relatively closed capital account, this hasn’t happened yet. At least the RMB is now part of the SDR, which functions as a unit of account for the IMF, but it only has a 10.9 percent weight.   Lastly, the currency needs to have developed fixed income markets where payments can be parked in the form of bank deposits or bonds.   And while local Chinese corporate bond issuance is strong, foreigners aren’t buying into it, and the Chinese government bond market remains small in comparison to those in the United States and Europe.   Furthermore, bank deposits in RMB in the so-called global clearing centers are also falling. In Hong Kong, for example, only 5 percent of all bank deposits are in RMB and 37 percent in dollars. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, in Beijing on March12, 2015. Unlike Western pundits, the Chinese central bank never wanted the yuan to replace the dollar.  (Feng Li/Getty Images) This, however, is not a disappointment for the Chinese regime, but rather for their Western cheerleaders. The Chinese have always favored an international solution to replace the U.S. dollar, namely in the form of the SDR, as China’s central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan called for in a 2009 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations. “The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations,” he said. Disconnected from the dollar, yes - but not connected to the yuan.

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23 мая, 00:08

Cyprus president: Talks proposal could bring swift results

The Greek Cypriot president of ethnically divided Cyprus on Monday urged Turkish Cypriots to accept his proposal to deal first with the toughest issues holding back progress in troubled reunification talks rather than trying to address everything in one go.

22 мая, 20:56

As Trump Unravels, So Do Fox News' Ratings

When Fox News architect Roger Ailes died last Thursday, one of the common threads through the coverage of his career was the ratings success he produced at the conservative news channel. “Roger Ailes, who built Fox News into a powerhouse, dies at 77,” read the CNN headline. The Associated Press agreed: “He helped start Fox News in 1996 and built it into a conservative news beacon and cable ratings powerhouse.” While Ailes was heavily (and deservedly) criticized over both the political legacy he left behind and the reports of serial sexual harassment that defined the end of his career, there was heated agreement within the press that Ailes was a television marketing master whose ratings success was untouched -- and that the Ailes model would outlive even his own presence as at the network. (He was forced out last July as reports of harassment snowballed.) All of which made Fox News’ ratings performance on the night Ailes died even more shocking: On Thursday, Fox News came in last place among the three cable news channels among viewers between the ages of 25 and 54. And it wasn’t a fluke. In a development that has sparked murmurs throughout the cable news business, Fox News in recent weeks has regularly finished in last place among advertising-friendly viewers between the ages of 25 and 54, or “demo” viewers, as they’re known in the industry. (In terms of total viewers, Fox News does better, thanks to its large stable of viewers over the age of 54.) “For first time this century, they aren’t in first place,” noted MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough last week. “In fact, for the first time this century, they are in third place.” Added CNN’s Brian Stelter, “This is an extraordinary moment in the cable news race.” And yes, a lot of this is President Donald Trump’s fault. Ever since Trump fired FBI Director James Comey on May 9, which seemed to then unleash an unending stream of breaking-news bombshells that rattled White House windows day after day, Fox News has seen its mighty ratings prowess threatened by MSNBC and CNN. Basically, the ongoing and ever-expanding list of scandals involving the Trump administration -- many revolving around Russia -- has depressed Fox News viewers while simultaneously spiking interest at CNN and MSNBC, driving Fox into the ratings basement.  Are we witnessing a sea change in cable news? Or is this simply an extended blip that’s drawing back the curtain and revealing Fox News’ programming flaws -- flaws that could be, at least in part, the result of endless personnel turmoil at the network for the last year. Whether it’s permanent or temporary, the current ratings malaise certainly raises larger questions for Fox News as it confronts a key transition period and figures out how to cover the Trump administration. So far, its "defend everything Trump does while complaining about liberal media bias" strategy doesn't seem to be paying off.  Keep in mind, last year Bill O’Reilly and Megyn Kelly were posting blockbuster numbers at 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. for Fox News. Today, they’re both gone and their replacement shows are struggling. Tucker Carlson Tonight is having trouble at 8 p.m., and The Five’s move to 9 p.m. has been, by Fox News standards, a ratings disappointment. Carlson’s decline at 8 p.m. must be especially troubling for Fox News executives since it’s a valuable time slot the network absolutely dominated for more than a decade with O’Reilly at the helm.   Nothing Carlson has tried in recent weeks amid the Trump scandal season has worked. Tucker has tried downplaying or ignoring the pile-up of bad news for Trump. And he’s also tried claiming the scandal coverage is all “hysteria.” Keep in mind, O’Reilly had posted some staggering numbers earlier this year for Fox News at 8 p.m. -- numbers that, as of now, Carlson can only dream of equaling. (O’Reilly averaged nearly 4 million viewers during the first quarter of 2017; Carlson is routinely coming in 30-40 percent under those numbers.)  Carlson has also repeatedly finished behind CNN’s Anderson Cooper 360 in the 25-54 demo, and twice last week landed in third place behind both Cooper and MSNBC’s All in with Chris Hayes. Overall, The Rachel Maddow Show at 9 p.m. has emerged as a ratings juggernaut for MSNBC this year, and especially this month. Meanwhile, MSNBC’s The Last Word With Lawrence O’Donnell has topped Hannity several times at 10 p.m. – both in the key demo and in overall ratings. That's the same Sean Hannity who, in the post-O’Reilly era, was supposed to be the network’s most powerful and influential attraction. Hannity’s “the alpha anchor right now,” Bloomberg suggested after O’Reilly’s departure.  But that hasn’t worked out. What’s so shocking about Fox News’ ratings woes is how swift the downward movement has been. “Through the first six months of 2016, FNC is enjoying the highest-rated year in its history in total day and primetime viewership,” The Wrap reported last June. One month later, in July 2016, Fox News’ implosion started when then-anchor Gretchen Carlson sued Ailes for sexual harassment. Since then, numerous key players have been publicly forced out at Fox, while others have walked away from the network. I can’t say I’m shocked by Fox News’ current ratings slump. Earlier this month, in the wake of O’Reilly’s forced departure, which was then followed by the forced departure of the channel’s co-president, I noted that Fox was poised for some tough times: “I also think the drip, drip, drip of on-air changes and off-camera firings and departures could unquestionably alter the dynamics for the long-running ratings winner." That internal turmoil, coupled with Trump’s scandal-plagued presidency, which shows no signs of abating, could signal a new ratings era in cable news. Crossposted at Media Matters for America. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

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22 мая, 19:36

Trump Saves Obamacare Again... For Now

The Trump administration and the House have officially asked for another 90 days to work out a lawsuit over subsidies that help poorer people afford to use their Obamacare insurance plans, further delaying a long-running legal fight that’s already destabilizing the health law. As Axio snotes, the key point is - "The parties continue to discuss measures that would obviate the need for judicial determination of this appeal, including potential legislative action." Full motion below... Bloomberg continues... Without the payments, insurers have threatened to drop out of Obamacare or substantially raise premiums, and customers could face thousands of dollars in unexpected costs. The Trump administration could still choose to drop the appeal, though other parties are attempting to take up defense of the payments. State officials, the health industry and Democrats in Congress have pushed for the payments to continue, saying that ending them would upend the insurance market and cost millions of people their health insurance. “We need swift action and long-term certainty on this critical program,” Cathryn Donaldson, a spokeswoman for America’s Health Insurance Plans, said in an email.   “It is the single most destabilizing factor in the individual market, and millions of Americans could soon feel the impact of fewer choices, higher costs, and reduced access to care.” The group is one of the main lobbying associations for health insurers. However, as Bloomberg reports, while the latest delay is a reprieve for Obamacare, it does little to resolve the underlying uncertainty created by the case and by Republican efforts in Congress to repeal and replace large parts of the law. Health insurers are in the midst of deciding whether to participate in the Affordable Care Act next year, and what to charge customers. Some have already said they’ll raise premiums in 2018 because of uncertainty around the subsidies. Trump previously threatened to use the CSR payments as a bargaining chip to bring Democrats to the table on health care if Republicans can’t muster enough repeal votes in the Senate. He also tried to use them as leverage to gain funding for a border wall with Mexico, saying he’d give Democrats a dollar in CSR money for every dollar for the wall. Of course,  the Democrats had plenty to say... Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the decision to continue the funding showed the administration knows that continuing the payments is the right thing to do. He criticized the uncertainty from Trump on their future. "Unfortunately, by kicking the can down the road once again, the administration is continuing to sow uncertainty in the markets that will hurt millions of Americans," Schumer said in a statement. "Instead of hemming and hawing, they ought to step up to the plate and say once and for all that they will make these payments permanently, which help millions of Americans pay less for their health care." House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, of California, criticized the action to delay the lawsuit further rather than resolve it once and for all. “Republicans cynically continue to sow uncertainty in the health coverage of millions of Americans,” Pelosi said in a statement. “At a critical period when insurers are deciding premiums for next year, Republicans are pouring uncertainty into the health insurance marketplaces.” While the delay will move the next update for the case to mid-August, the deadline for insurers to submit their 2018 plans for Obamacare' exchanges in most states is June 21.

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22 мая, 19:31

UN condemns North Korea missile launch, vows new sanctions

The Security Council strongly condemned North Korea’s “flagrant and provocative defiance” of U.N. sanctions banning ballistic missile tests on Monday and again vowed to impose new sanctions in response to its latest launch.

22 мая, 19:01

Bangkok hospital bomb leaves 24 injured

A bomb at a hospital in the Thai capital wounded 24 people on the third anniversary of a 2014 military coup, the government said, with the army chief blaming groups opposed to the junta. There was no

22 мая, 18:51

In Sweeping Leadership Change, Ford Replaces CEO Mark Fields With James Hackett

Executive Chairman Bill Ford and the board name raft of new top executives, moving swiftly to oust a CEO who they never had total faith in, replacing him with someone who the great-grandson of the automaker's founder believes is a 'proven transformational leader' and 'visionary thinker.'

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22 мая, 16:17

Clariant/Huntsman Deal Shows Friendly Mergers Can Work If Firms Set Own Agenda

Clariant and Huntsman unveiled a speciality chemicals tie-up in a friendly and fast merger that shows that companies can remain masters of their destiny in a consolidating industry provided they act timely and swift.

22 мая, 16:07

Trump's encounter with glowing orb sets alight social media

IMAGES of US President Donald Trump placing his hands on a glowing orb has set alight the internet, prompting comparisons to science fiction and fantasy villains. The pictures were taken while Trump

16 января 2015, 16:07

Итоги 2014 и прогноз на 2015

Не могла пройти мимо статьи в Ведомостях: На чем заработали и сколько потеряли инвесторы в 2014 году.  Судя по этой статье, самый высокий доход показывает т.н."инвестиции в доллар" или долларовые депозиты или наличные. Это и понятно- за счет резкого обесценения рубля против доллара , как нам говорится в статье," долларовые депозиты оказались самыми доходными (+78,7%)". Иными словами, в статье как бы намекают,что лучше доллара вы ничего не найдете,чтобы сберечь свои накопления. Я уже как-то говорила о том,что доллар - это не деньги, вот сейчас всем нам эту разницу- разницу между деньгами и финансовым иструментом- мы и узнаем. Деньги помимо расчетной функции обладают функцией накопления капитала, финансовый инструмент  обладает "инвестиционной возможностью" , являясь "инвестицией". Инвестиция в финансовый инструмент- это спекуляция, риск неизвестности получения дохода и возможной полной его потери вместе с "инвестицией", который берет на себя обладатель "инвестиции",т.е. это предпринимательский риск, который вы берете на себя, оперируя теми же валютами. Пример такого риска нам показал только что банк Швейцарии и валютные брокеры. Читаем Зерохедж Numerous FX Brokers Shutter After Suffering "Significant Losses" Following SNB Stunnerили на русском это ВестифинансШторм от Банка Швейцарии. Есть пострадавшие "Большое количество клиентов с позициями в швейцарском франке оказались в проигрышной ситуации и понесли потери намного большие, чем объем их депозитов.Брокер также сообщает, что тем клиентам, которые не смогли вовремя закрыть позиции из-за отсутствия ликвидности, он не может компенсировать потери. В Excel Markets обращают внимание на то, что даже на межбанковском рынке франк был неликвидным в течение нескольких часов после решения Банка Швейцарии". Разница валютного депозита с валютной спекуляцией на рынке форексе будет заключатся в том,что вы участвуете в этом ввиду полной интеграции российской банковской системы в валютную расчетную систему SWIFT- Россия на втором месте по интеграции банков в эту систему, поэтому все общания ЦБ РФ в том,что они подготовят альтернативу SWIFT так и останутся обещаниями. Напомню,что глава ЦБ РФ входит в американский долларовый институт Бреттон-Вуда- МВФ, поэтому ничего удивительного нет в том,что ЦБ РФ тупо выполняет все инструкции МВФ- ЦБ РФ- это одна из марионеток американской системы.МОСКВА, 16 января. /ТАСС/. "Период резких изменений курса рубля завершается, правительственные меры по поддержке национальной валюты заработали, сказал ТАСС глава российского представительства Международного валютного фонда Бикас Джоши".  Десятка стран, лидирующих по числу кредитных организаций, подключенных к SWIFT (по данным SWIFT, 2013) по факту Россия слишком глубоко интегрирована в западную систему, зависима от нее. У страны нет возможностей создать собственную альтернативную сеть (разве только на двусторонней основе с Китаем), а разговоры о переходе расчетов на внутреннюю систему, как и в случаях других предложений  власти, останутся разговорами. Вчера было озвучено,что европарламентарии требуют от Совета ЕС распространить уже действующие санкции на предприятия атомной промышленности России, а также ограничить все международные финансовые транзакции РФ. Сегодня продолжили: БРЮССЕЛЬ, 16 января. /Корр. ТАСС Александр Шишло/. Действующие санкции Евросоюза против России могут быть усилены в случае значительного ухудшения ситуации на востоке Украины. Об этом заявил в пятницу высокопоставленный чиновник ЕС, близкий к руководству институтов сообщества. Давление усиливается и разговор идет уже о полной капитуляции России перед США. Как это принято у бандитов, клиента "поставили на счетчик", например, это дело ЮКОСА МОСКВА, 16 января. /ТАСС/. С сегодняшнего дня начинается начисление процентов за несвоевременное исполнение арбитражных решений о выплате РФ $50,1 млрд бывшим акционерам ЮКОСа. Но наездом на государство дело не ограничивается. Уже против Лукойла возбудили дело о "коррупции в рамках финансирования терроризма":КИЕВ, 16 января. /ТАСС/. Служба безопасности Украины (СБУ) возбудила уголовное дело по статье "Финансирование терроризма" против бизнес-структур, входящих в группы компаний ЛУКОЙЛ и ВЕТЭК.   Если внимательно смотреть за происходящим во Франции, то можно увидеть,что Франция на этот раз выполнила роль этакого подопытного кролика, где начинают претворяться идеи будущей Европы- будущего фашизма- зомбированные марионеточные европейские чиновники и послушное население, готовое быть рабом и идти в этом на все. Все,кто мог более-менее осмыслить происходящее, были жестоко не только подавлены, но и наказаны за "инакомыслие", включая несовершенолетних. Или еще можно так сказать,что фашизм начинается с Франции и с Великобритании. В целом,на мой взгляд, глава Raiffeisen прав, говоря, что Америка не пойдет на уступки и «будет сражаться с Путиным до последнего европейца». При этом можно обратить внимание на очень похожие случаи в Армении и в Германии. В Германии, в Дрездене, активно выступала PEDIGA против мусульманской колонизации Европы. Недавно там был зарезан чернокожий юноша на фоне вот этого антиисламского движения,что послужило обвинением антиисламского движения в экстремизме. В Армении произошел очень странный случай в Гюмри, закончившийся беспорядками, при этом мы читаем: ЕРЕВАН, 16 января. /Корр.ТАСС Тигран Лилоян/. Европейский союз предоставил Армении 77,5 млн евро на продолжение реформ, проводимых при его помощи.В правительстве республики состоялась церемония "запуска" восьми соглашений, которые были заключены месяц назад по различным направлениям сотрудничества - от сельского хозяйства до территориального развития. Иными словами, похожие процессы на Украине ,с высокой вероятностью, будут запущены в Армении. Поэтому, никакого разговора не может быть ни о каком ЕВРАЗЭС- это пустышка, если никто всерьез этим не собирался заниматься. Все это фантазии россиянской элиты, которая сама никогда ничего не создавала. Военная обстановка, к которой прибавится Казказ и Азия: Сегодня США оказывают жесткое давление на Россию по трем направлениям: северному – из Прибалтики, центральному – из Польши и южному – через Румынию. То есть мы с вами наблюдаем то,как США защищают собственные интересы- вполне себе бандитскими способами, не чураясь никаких угроз и шантажа, используя в своих приемах гражданское население, убив его , запугав террором, превратив послушных в своих рабов, чтобы получить желаемое. А что Россия? Вопрос уже всем понятный- дни нынешней России уже сочтены, поэтому нам с вами стоит приготовиться к разным вариантам. Например, это отключение банков от SWIFT и попыткой переключения на внутреннюю систему. Я не исключаю невозможности работать банкам в стандартном режиме, поэтому запас  наличности должен быть дома- у каждого по возможностям. Скорее всего, в этом случае вклады получить будет проблематично. Далее. Очень вероятно,что появится натуральный обмен и бартер. Например, вспоминаем, всем известную валюту- водку. Значит, делаем запасы этой натуральной валюты. В общем, вспоминаем советское время и готовимся к сложным временам. 

26 декабря 2014, 11:49

ЦБ запустил аналог SWIFT для операций внутри России

Банк России с декабря предоставил кредитным организациям новую услугу по передаче финансовых сообщений в формате SWIFT по внутрироссийским операциям. Банки подключаются к услуге на основе договоров с Банком России.   "Новый сервис реализован в целях обеспечения бесперебойности и безопасности передачи финансовых сообщений внутри страны и является очередным шагом в направлении совершенствования системы услуг, предоставляемых Банком России", - сообщает ЦБ. Новая услуга позволит кредитным организациям передавать сообщения в форматах SWIFT через Банк России во всех регионах страны и без ограничений. ЦБ намерен обезопасить банки от возможных проблем в случае отключения системы международных расчетов SWIFT. ЕС в сентябре призвал к новым ограничительным мерам в отношении России, в том числе к отключению России от системы SWIFT. Однако сама компания SWIFT неоднократно заявляла, что не собирается отключать Россию от своих услуг. ЦБ заявил ранее, что цены на новую услугу окажутся конкурентоспособными.

05 июня 2014, 17:29

США все активнее используют юань во внешней торговле

  США вышли на третье место в мире после Сингапура и Великобритании по объемам использования китайской валюты. Все больше американских компаний переходят на юань при оплате импорта из КНР. Международная межбанковской системы передачи информации и совершения платежей SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) опубликовала пресс-релиз "The United States jumps ahead of Taiwan as an offshore RMB clearing centre". По данным организации, со стороны США наблюдается заметная активизация в использовании китайской валюты. Общая доля юаней в торговле между США и Китаем остается сравнительно небольшой, однако динамика использования юаня в расчетах со стороны США говорит сама за себя. По сравнению с апрелем 2013 г. в этом году доля использования юаня в сделках между США и Китаем выросла с 0,7% до 2,4%. При этом, в апреле 2014 г. объем платежей США с использованием китайской валюты в годовом отношении увеличился на 327%. Общая доля платежей в юанях с американской стороны в общемировом контексте выросла с 1,3% в апреле 2013 г. до 2,6% к апрелю 2014 г. Юань в торговле США – Китай/Гонконг; США – остальной мир: Графика: SWIFT США опередили Тайвань и вышли на третье место в мире – после Сингапура и Великобритании – по использованию юаня. Майкл Мун, директор подразделения платежей SWIFT в Азиатско-тихоокеанском регионе отметил, что это очередное свидетельство растущей роли юаня в международной торговле:  “На мой взгляд, повышение объемов платежей в юанях в сделках между США и Китаем/Гонконгом – это серьезный сигнал, который будет способствовать дальнейшему использованию китайской валюты. Хотя американский доллар все еще занимает доминирующее положение в торговле между странами, тем не менее, данные говорят о том, что США все более активно используют юань для того, чтобы поддержать свои корпорации, которые хотят расширять свои производственные мощности в Китае и все чаще оплачивают продукцию своих китайских поставщиков в юанях. Это хорошие новости для дальнейшей глобализации юаня в качестве мировой валюты”.

04 декабря 2013, 01:06

Сенсация! Юань - вторая торгуемая валюта... точно? )))

Китайский юань обошел евро в рейтинге самых торгуемых мировых валют, следует из отчета Международной межбанковской электронной системы платежей (SWIFT). Коэффициент использования юаня поднялся с 1,89% в январе 2012г. до 8,66% в октябре 2013г. Опережает китайскую национальную валюту лишь доллар США, который лидирует с коэффициентом 81,08%. Между тем доля евро упала с 7,87% в январе 2012г. до 6,64% в октябре 2013г.: сейчас единая европейская валюта занимает третье место в рейтинге самых торгуемых. По данным на октябрь 2013г., больше всего в финансовой торговле юанем пользовались Китай, Гонконг, Сингапур, Германия и Австралия. Так, на долю КНР приходится 59% сделок с юанем, на Гонконг - 21%, Сингапур - 12%, Германию и Австралию - по 2%. http://top.rbc.ru/economics/03/12/2013/892600.shtml _______________________________________ РБК, мягко говоря, отжигает .... Если реально SWIFT очень любит юань и публикует ежемесячно отчеты о расчетах в нем (надеясь на активный рост роли юаня). Собственно сам отчет на основе которого и появился материал. Читаем внимательно: RMB now 2nd most used currency in trade finance, overtaking the Euro, with a activity share of 8.66%. Что именно имеет ввиду SWIFT смотрим здесь "traditional trade finance - Letters of Credit and Collections" Торговое финансирование, конкретно инкассо и аккредитивы ...как бы это далеко не "рейтинг самых торгуемых валют". 59% из них - сам Китай, ещё 21% - Гонконг, ещё 12% - Сигнапур и только оставшиеся 8% - остальные страны из которых по 2% Германия и Австралия. Причем бурный рост, скорее всего, обусловлен во многом более корректным учетом операций самого континентального Китая. Доля Китая в международных платежах в отчете на 6-й странице и составляет в октябре0.84%. Она выросла с 0.25% в январе 2012 года, до 0.63% в январе 2013 года (когда юань обогнал рубль), после этого рост несколько затормозился: март - 0.74%, июнь - 0.87%, сентябрь - 0.86%, октябрь - 0.84%. По-хорошему, с лета экспансия юаня в общем объеме платежей прекратилась ... но все ищут сенсации. P.S.: В перспективе доля юаня в платежах, конечно, должна существенно вырасти (при либерализации рынка юаню есть куда расти), но только в перспективе. P.P.S.: Кому интересно: ссылка на раздел с отчетами SWIFT