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Talisman Energy
21 октября 2016, 13:16

Инвесторы-активисты: кто станет новой жертвой?

Активисты-инвесторы за последние годы оправдывали свое название, запуская кампании против самых разных компаний.

21 октября 2016, 13:16

Инвесторы-активисты: кто станет новой жертвой?

Активисты-инвесторы за последние году оправдывали свое название, запуская кампании против самых разных компаний.

Выбор редакции
03 мая 2016, 18:56

Woodside, Talisman complete sale of Timor Sea fields

Partners Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and Talisman Energy Ltd. have completed their joint 2015 deal to sell mature Laminaria and Corallina oil fields in the western Timor Sea.

Выбор редакции
20 декабря 2014, 07:50

Крупные инвесторы в США понесли потери из-за нефти

Падение мировых цен на нефть привело к серьезным финансовым потерям для ряда крупных американских инвесторов. По данным финансовой отчетности на декабрь 2013 г., хедж-фонд Icahn Associates во главе с известным инвестором-миллиардером Карлом Айканом являлся втором по величине акционером канадской нефтегазовой компании Talisman Energy, владея пакетом в 76 млн акций (более 7% акций компании), который оценивался в $894,5 млн. Карл Айкан, глава Icahn Associates На фоне обвала нефтяных котировок, начавшегося в июне 2014 г., к декабрю 2014 г. стоимость пакета рухнула на $540 млн. Часть потерь была нивелирована после согласия Talisman на поглощение со стороны испанской нефтяной компании Repsol, новости о котором были озвучены 16 декабря. В Repsol согласились заплатить за Talisman Energy $8,3 млрд, а также взять на себя долги компании в объеме $4,7 млрд. Cтоимость пакета акций Icahn Associates в Talisman Energy была оценена в $608,5 млн, что на $286 млн меньше прежней стоимости пакета. Айкан прокомментировал сделку: "В текущих условиях рынка нефти я, разумеется, рад тому, что у Talisman Energy нашелся покупатель. Цены на нефть могут снизиться еще сильнее. Однако в долгосрочной перспективе, я думаю, нефтяные инвестиции имеют огромный потенциал". Инвесткомпания миллиардера Джона Полсона Paulson & Co., которой принадлежит ряд хедж-фондов, по сведениям источников издания Wall Street Journal (WSJ), в 2014 г. сделала большую ставку на инвестиции в различных небольших нефтяных компаниях. Джон Полсон, глава Paulson & Co В Paulson & Co. рассчитывали, что крупные нефтяные компании начнут в массовом порядке скупать более мелких игроков. В частности, по данным компании FactSet, на конец III квартала 2014 г. Paulson & Co являлась крупнейшим акционером в таких компаниях, как Whiting Petroleum и Oasis Petroleum, которые активно разрабатывают участки на сланцевом месторождении Баккен. Стратегия еще может оправдаться в дальнейшем, однако пока что рыночная капитализация этих компаний резко упала. Котировки Whiting Petroleum обвалились с уровня $77,55 за акцию (по данным на 30 сентября) в район $32 за акцию (по данным на 19 декабря). Котировки Oasis Petroleum за тот же период обвалились с $41,81 за акцию до $16,57 за акцию. По данным агентства Bloomberg, на начало декабря потери Paulson & Co. с начала года составили 27%.

20 декабря 2014, 03:04

Без заголовка

ФРС лопает пузырь долгов сланцевой нефти. Ч.II. Конец украинской «энергонезависимости» и «калифорнийского сланцевого чуда»  Вашингтонский режим обманул и предал всех. Нефть стремительно дешевеет, обрушивая разрекламированное «сланцевое чудо». Рецепт по обрушению экономики России ударил как по нефтяной отрасли США, так и по их «сланцевым» саттелитам, включая бывшую Украину (часть I) Для многих нефтяных компаний месторождений добыча нефти стала бесприбыльной уже при цене $70/баррель. И практически не останется тех, для кого добыча нефти не будет убыточной при цене $50/баррель. КОНЕЦ ПОЛЬСКОЙ «ЭНЕРГОНЕЗАВИСИМОСТИ» Проблемы со сланцевыми технологиями в Европе начались давно, в частности, свернув проект добычи в Польше, которой пообещали энергонезависимость от поставок Москвы. Польские власти вложили в попытку начать добычу сланцевого газа огромные усилия. «Если у США получилось, то получится и у нас», - рассуждали они. Увы, чуда не произошло. За несколько последних лет в Польше было заключено 113 концессионных соглашений с примерно 30 компаниями – на площади порядка трети страны. Ожидалось, что промышленное производство сланцевого газа начнется в 2015 году. Проблемы – в сложной геологии (польский сланцевый газ расположен в среднем в полтора раза глубже, чем американский), а также в более слабой инфраструктуре страны (в частности, мало дорог, способных выдержать перевозку тяжелого оборудования). В целом, цену каждой скважины в Польше газета The Miami Herald оценивала в $15 млн. – по сравнению с $4 млн. в Barnett Shale в Техасе. Подсчет запасов сланцевого потенциала Польши на базе фактических данных так и не состоялся/ Поначалу американский куратор проекта в лице Управления по энергетической информации при Министерстве энергетики США (Energy Information Administration, EIA) оценила запасы страны в 5,3 трлн куб м, затем Польский геологический институт совместно с USGS оценили запасы в сумму, на порядок меньшую. В Институте Костюшко подсчитали, что Польше нужно бурить 500 скважин ежегодно. При этом Oxford Institute for Energy Studies оценила количество скважин, необходимых для добычи 28 млрд. куб м сланцевого газа к 2020 году, в 700-1000 штук, на которые понадобится 100 млн. баррелей воды. В настоящее время Польша добывает порядка 4,3 млрд куб м газа в год. Компания ExxonMobil свернула свою деятельность в Польше в 2012 году, указав, что коммерчески значимого притока газа в двух пробуренных скважинах не получено. Канадская Talisman Energy пытается продать свои польские лицензии. Кроме того, на убивающих свои земли «самостийную» Польшу давит Еврокомиссия - предлагая запретить добычу сланцевого газа из экологических соображений. УКРАИНА - ВЕНЕЦ СЛАНЦЕВОГО ФИАСКО Но венцом этого фиаско стала Украина, которой США так же долго внушали идею «энергонезависимости» от «клятих москалей». Контракты, предполагавшие уничтожение экологии и лишение жителей их недвижимости, подписал В.Янукович. Уничтожать людей «согласно контракта» начали его последыши, захватившие власть в результате вооруженного переворота. Однако в июне Shell Oil остановила свои новые скважины, добывающие сланцевый газ на Юзовском месторождении на Юго-восточной Украине. Учитывая тот факт, что даже просто пробурить эти скважины компания смогла только после того, как карательные подразделения еврейских олигархов изгнали и уничтожили местных жителей (которые выступали против добычи), исход Shell Oil из региона стал «сюрпризом для многих». Судя по всему, американо-голландская нефтяная компания поняла экономическую бесперспективность добычи, и теперь ищет способы выхода из проекта, ради которого было уничтожено множество людей.    Другое крупное газовое соглашение бывшей Украины было заключено с Chevron – по разработке месторождений в Ивано-Франковском регионе. В ночь на понедельник 15 декабря 2014 года агентство Reuters сообщило, что «Chevron планирует выйти из 10-миллиардного соглашения по сланцевому газу», и что компания «отказалась дать дальнейшие комментарии». Таким образом, февральский переворот на Украине, проходивший в том числе под лозунгом «энергонезависимости от клятих москалей», превратился в кампанию по звериному геноциду не потерявших свою национальную идентичность русских Новороссии. Одновременно, оставив режим еврейских олигархов без энергоресурсов. КОНЕЦ «КАЛИФОРНИЙСКОГО СЛАНЦЕВОГО ЧУДА» На другой стороне Атлантики, эксперт в нефтяной отрасли Дэвид Хагис собрал и проанализировал огромный объём данных, связанных с перспективами американских сланцевых месторождений. Анализ показал стремительное их истощение, - когда с каждым годом объёмы добычи с каждой скважины снижаются на 45% (при среднем снижении до 70%) и продолжает далее падать (до 85% на третий год). Поэтому необходимо бурить по 1,5 тыс. скважин в год только для того, чтобы поддерживать объёмы добычи на одном уровне. Кроме того, качество новых месторождений становится много хуже, поэтому скоро придется бурить не 1,5 тыс., а 3 тыс. новых скважин в год. Но стоимость разработки каждой скважины остаётся той же. Поэтому для того, чтобы добыча являлась прибыльной, цены на нефть должны быть намного выше сегодняшних. Тем более учитывая, что в настоящее время ведётся разработка наиболее перспективных месторождений — т.е. с годами результаты будут только ухудшаться, поэтому цены должны постоянно расти. По той же причине планы США по «энергетической независимости» на основе сланцевых месторождений, как минимум базируются на ошибочных предпосылках. Управление энергетической информации США составило неоправданно оптимистические прогнозы, касающиеся добычи сланцевой нефти, и дало чрезмерно оптимистичные оценки, касающиеся её цены. Как мы помним, уже в мае оценка общих запасов нефти в США была радикально снижена. По данным издания Los Angeles Times, Управление по энергоинформации при Минэнергетики США (EIA) так же пересмотрело свои прежние оценки по промышленным запасам сланцевой нефти месторождения Монтерей, Калифорния, снизив их на 96%. В результате общий объем запасов промышленной нефти в США сократился на 39%. Ранее в EIA считали, что в геологических пластах Центральной Калифорнии содержится в общей сложности 13,7 млрд. баррелей нефти, которую можно добыть с использованием текущего уровня технологии гидроразрыва пласта (ГРП, hydraulic fracturing). Это в несколько раз больше объемов в крупнейших сланцевых месторождениях нефти, которые активно разрабатываются в США: Баккен (Bakken) в штате Северная Дакота (3,65 млрд. баррелей) и Игл Форд (Eagle Ford) в Техасе (3 млрд. баррелей). По ряду оптимистичных оценок, в частности, опубликованных в 2013 г. в докладе Университета Южной Калифорнии «The Monterey Shale & California’s Economic Future» (PDF), разработка сланцевой нефти к 2020 г. должна была создать 2,8 млн. новых рабочих мест и принести Калифорнии $24,6 млрд. в виде налогов. Однако, сланцевое месторождение Монтерей оказалась намного более «разбросанным» из-за более высокой сейсмической активности, при этом нефть залегает в более глубоких слоях пласта.  Таким образом, была проведена уже вторая переоценка нефтезапасов месторождения. Изначально, в 2011 г. в EIA заявили, что в формации содержится 15,4 млрд. баррелей доступной нефти. В 2012 г. эта оценка была понижена до 13,7 млрд. баррелей.  По новым подсчетам промышленные запасы нефти в Калифорнии составляют всего 600 млн. баррелей нефти. Это повлекло масштабную переоценку объема запасов нефти в США. Если по апрельским оценкам EIA – «U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, 2012» (PDF), – общий объем запасов нефти по итогам 2012 г. составлял 33,4 млрд. баррелей, то с учётом объявленного со стороны экспертов EIA сокращения запасов в Калифорнии, общий объем запасов нефти упал почти на 40% - с 33,4 млрд. до 20,3 млрд. баррелей. Таким образом, США  не удалось стать «нефтяной сверхдержавой». «СЛАНЦЕВОЕ ЧУДО» - МАХИНАЦИЯ РАДИ РАЗДУТИЯ ОЧЕРЕДНОГО ДОЛГОВОГО ПУЗЫРЯ И ПОКАЗАТЕЛЬ ДЕГЕНЕРАЦИИ ВАШИНГТОНА Есть основания считать, что завышение оценок запасов нефти и излишний оптимизм по поводу их добычи – не только в Калифорнии, но и в Техасе, - был сугубо политическим шагом, направленным на поднятие «градуса оптимизма» в обществе и очередным поводом влить эмиссионные миллиарды и триллионные долларов в неминуемо падающую экономику. Как мы отмечали в первой части, техасские компании по добыче сланцевой нефти сегодня так же убыточны – тратя на бурение на 15% больше, чем получая от продажи добытой нефти. Таким образом, добыча сланцевой нефти сегодня несет планово убыточный характер. Кроме того, сами нефтяники отмечают, что «нефтяные компании, которые имеют высокие затраты на финансирование месторождений в Eagle Ford и Bakken, наиболее подвержены риску прямо сейчас из-за снижения цен на нефть». Зато через эту сомнительную отрасль ФРС влила в экономику США порядка 550 млрд. эмиссионных долларов – который должен лопнуть в марте-апреле, когда банки начнут переоценивать кредитные риски от вложений. «СКОЛЬКО ВЕРЕВОЧКИ НЕ ВИТЬСЯ…» Между тем, очевидная идея использовать договоренность с саудитами о понижении стоимости нефти – примененная в 1980-х для подрыва экономики Советского Союза – сегодня ударила по самим Соединенным Штатам и их сателлитам. Но это говорит не только об абсолютной безжалостности вашингтонского режима, но и о его дегенерации. Впрочем, тут стоит вспомнить и слова  (названного публично администрацией Обамы «куриным дерьмом») «израильского» премьер-министра Б.Нетаньху, который после посещения находящегося в американской тюрьме провалившегося агента израильской разведки Дж.Поларда, в кругу своих сотрудников заявил буквально следующее: «Когда мы выжмем из Америки всё, что можно, пусть она катится ко всем чертям». С тем учетом, что даже на оккупированной иудейским олигархами Украине предпочитают убивать советников Нетаньяху, своей фразой об Америке «израильский» премьер невольно напомнил «еврейский» анекдот, заканчивающийся вопросом – «А есть ли у вас другой глобус?» - поскольку очень сложно сказать, кто будет рад принять это сатанинское племя…

19 декабря 2014, 18:11

Крупные инвесторы в США понесли потери из-за нефти

  Падение мировых цен на нефть привело к серьезным финансовым потерям для ряда крупных американских инвесторов.  По данным финансовой отчетности на декабрь 2013 г., хедж-фонд Icahn Associates во главе с известным инвестором-миллиардером Карлом Айканом являлся втором по величине акционером канадской нефтегазовой компании Talisman Energy, владея пакетом в 76 млн акций (более 7% акций компании), который оценивался в $894,5 млн. Карл Айкан, глава Icahn Associates На фоне обвала нефтяных котировок, начавшегося в июне 2014 г., к декабрю 2014 г. стоимость пакета рухнула на $540 млн. Часть потерь была нивелирована после согласия Talisman на поглощение со стороны испанской нефтяной компании Repsol, новости о котором были озвучены 16 декабря. В Repsol согласились заплатить за Talisman Energy $8,3 млрд, а также взять на себя долги компании в объеме $4,7 млрд. Cтоимость пакета акций Icahn Associates в Talisman Energy была оценена в $608,5 млн, что на $286 млн меньше прежней стоимости пакета. Айкан прокомментировал сделку: "В текущих условиях рынка нефти я, разумеется, рад тому, что у Talisman Energy нашелся покупатель. Цены на нефть могут снизиться еще сильнее. Однако в долгосрочной перспективе, я думаю, нефтяные инвестиции имеют огромный потенциал". Инвесткомпания миллиардера Джона Полсона Paulson & Co., которой принадлежит ряд хедж-фондов, по сведениям источников издания Wall Street Journal (WSJ), в 2014 г. сделала большую ставку на инвестиции в различных небольших нефтяных компаниях. Джон Полсон, глава Paulson & Co В Paulson & Co. рассчитывали, что крупные нефтяные компании начнут в массовом порядке скупать более мелких игроков. В частности, по данным компании FactSet, на конец III квартала 2014 г. Paulson & Co являлась крупнейшим акционером в таких компаниях, как Whiting Petroleum и Oasis Petroleum, которые активно разрабатывают участки на сланцевом месторождении Баккен. Стратегия еще может оправдаться в дальнейшем, однако пока что рыночная капитализация этих компаний резко упала. Котировки Whiting Petroleum обвалились с уровня $77,55 за акцию (по данным на 30 сентября) в район $32 за акцию (по данным на 19 декабря). Котировки Oasis Petroleum за тот же период обвалились с $41,81 за акцию до $16,57 за акцию. По данным агентства Bloomberg, на начало декабря потери Paulson & Co. с начала года составили 27%.

Выбор редакции
18 декабря 2014, 19:37

Repsol договорилась о поглощении Talisman за $8,3 млрд

Испанская компания Repsol заплатит $8,3 млрд за покупку канадской Talisman Energy и в результате, по её утверждению, станет одной из крупнейших энергетических групп мира, сообщает нефтегазовый интернет-портал Rigzone. Подробнее читайте на нашем сайте www.oilru.com

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17 декабря 2014, 23:01

By Buying Canada’s Talisman, Spain’s Repsol Nearly Doubles In Size

The Spanish energy company Repsol will buy Canada’s Talisman Energy Inc. for $8.3 billion in cash in a deal that would immediately double Repsol’s oil production and staff. Repsol and Talisman said Dec. 16 that the sale had been unanimously approved and recommended by the boards of both companies. The transaction is expected to be completed in mid-2015. If so, Repsol would pay $8 for each share in Talisman, 60 percent more than the stock’s average price over the past month, Talisman said, and the Spanish company would assume $4.7…Read more...

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16 декабря 2014, 20:30

Talisman Energy Soars on $13 Billion Acquisition by Repsol - Analyst Blog

Shares of Talisman Energy (TLM) jumped nearly 47% in the pre-market trading session following its confirmation of being acquired by Repsol S.A. (REPYY).

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16 декабря 2014, 19:20

Испания/Канада: компания Repsol договорилась о приобретении Talisman Energy за $13 млрд

Крупнейший в Испании нефтяник Repsol договорился о приобретении всего пакета акций канадской нефтегазовой компании Talisman Energy за $13 млрд. Отметим, что в рамках сделки Repsol заплатит $8,3 млрд, что предполагает премию к рыночной цене в размере 56%, а также погасит долг Talisman на сумму $4,7 млрд.

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16 декабря 2014, 18:55

Oil & Gas Stock Roundup: Repsol to Buy Talisman in $13B Deal Amid Oil Tumble - Analyst Blog

Taking advantage of the crude slump, Spain's Repsol S.A. (REPYY) has agreed to buy Canada's Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) in a $13 billion transaction.

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16 декабря 2014, 18:24

Испания/Канада: компания Repsol договорилась о приобретении Talisman Energy за $13 млрд

Крупнейший в Испании нефтяник Repsol договорился о приобретении всего пакета акций канадской нефтегазовой компании Talisman Energy за $13 млрд. Отметим, что в рамках сделки Repsol заплатит $8,3 млрд, что предполагает премию к рыночной цене в размере 56%, а также погасит долг Talisman на сумму $4,7 млрд.

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16 декабря 2014, 17:21

Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) in Focus: Stock Soars 19.3% - Tale of the Tape

Talisman Energy Inc. (TLM) was a big mover last session, as the company saw its shares rise by over 19% on the day.

16 декабря 2014, 15:34

Frontrunning: December 16

Ruble Sinks to 80 a Dollar Defying Surprise Russia Rate Increase (BBG) Oil slumps near $59 for first time since 2009 on oversupply (Reuters) Oil sinks, Russian moves fail to quell nerves (Reuters) Fed Seen Looking Past Low Inflation to Drop ‘Considerable Time (BBG) At least Europe is "fixed" - Eurozone PMI picks up gingerly in December (FT) Students Among Dead as Pakistan Gunmen Kill 126 at Army School (BBG) Repsol to buy Talisman Energy for $13 billion (Reuters) Indonesia’s Rupiah Erases Decline After Central Bank Intervenes (BBG) Anti-Islam Rally Grows as Immigrant Backlash Hits Europe (BBG) Saudi Arabia is playing chicken with its oil (Reuters) China industrial activity shrinks in December, calls grow for more stimulus (Reuters) Obama's Surgeon General Pick May Defeat the Gun Lobby (BBG) EU funds help Poland build 'ghost' airports (Reuters) Billions in German Family Wealth Threatened by Tax Ruling (BBG)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ * Google Inc plans to push deeper into online commerce by enhancing its Google Shopping service with features that more directly challenge Amazon.com Inc. (http://on.wsj.com/1uPkFDX) * NBC is launching a live stream of its broadcast network, part of a broader effort at parent NBCUniversal to make more of its content available online via computers and mobile devices. (http://on.wsj.com/1BRMcMr) * Two tech startups, Hortonworks Inc and New Relic Inc, have proposed to sell shares to the public at a 25 percent to 50 percent discount to the roughly $1 billion valuations that some venture-capital firms and big mutual funds paid earlier this year. (http://on.wsj.com/1u7sqok) * U.S. cattle exports have fallen by a third this year, hurting businesses from cattle haulers to the port in Wilmington, Delaware. (http://on.wsj.com/1BO72cJ) * Repsol SA is preparing an US$8.3 billion bid for Talisman Energy Inc of Canada, a takeover that would roughly double the Spanish company's oil output. (http://on.wsj.com/1GpQYAC) * InterContinental Hotels Group Plc has agreed to buy Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants for $430 million in cash. (http://on.wsj.com/1BNmbLu) * U.S. manufacturing output climbed past its prerecession peak this fall, suggesting the American economy is on solid footing despite growing signs of weakness abroad. (http://on.wsj.com/1Gp6tZq) * Riverbed Technology Inc agreed to be acquired by private-equity firm Thoma Bravo LLC for about $3.6 billion, following more than a year of pressure from activist investor Elliott Management Corp. (http://on.wsj.com/16ofvcG) * The South Korean government said it plans to impose penalties on Korean Air Lines Co Ltd in response to a recent incident involving an executive who delayed a flight to eject a crew member in a protest at the way she was served macadamia nuts. (http://on.wsj.com/1sxXsuF) * Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co, which is controlled by Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin, has raised US$3.7 billion in a Hong Kong initial public offering after pricing the deal near the high end of an indicative price range, according to people familiar with the situation. (http://on.wsj.com/1wAIh3x) * GT Advanced Technologies Inc has won bankruptcy court approval of a settlement with Apple Inc that wards off the threat of litigation over a failed effort to produce large quantities of scratch-and shatter-resistant smartphone screen materials. (http://on.wsj.com/16oLvND) * Cement companies Holcim Ltd and Lafarge SA cleared a major hurdle toward their planned $43 billion merger after antitrust authorities in Europe said the deal could go ahead, subject to significant asset sales across the region. (http://on.wsj.com/1wUO7P4)   FT Youth-focused digital content company Vice Media will go ahead with a "deal spree" in 2015, and if market conditions remain favourable, it may also go ahead with an initial public offering, Chief Executive Shane Smith said. European regulator Dutch Data Protection Agency may slap Google with a 15 million euro ($18.66 million) fine for usage and storage of personal data. The regulator demanded that the Mountain View headquartered-company ask for unambiguous consent for using users' personal data between its services like Google Maps and YouTube. UK-based company Audioboom has struck a deal with Audible, a subsidiary of Amazon, to offer audiobook snippets. Audioboom, which distributes audio content for media organisations like BBC and Reuters, will receive upfront payment for any new users registering with Audible through the platform and a percentage of the online retail sales. Bank of Cyprus' shares are set to resume trading, 22 months after the lender was rattled by a financial crisis that struck the mediterranean country.   NYT * The gunman who seized hostages in downtown Sydney was known as a deeply troubled man with a pending case involving the murder of his former wife. (http://nyti.ms/1wCOhY7) * Billionaire investor Steven A. Cohen, who managed to fend off a criminal insider trading investigation of himself, if not of his former hedge fund, is looking for a former prosecutor and several agents from the Federal Bureau of Investigation to join his new $10 billion investment firm, Point72 Asset Management, said several people briefed on the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. (http://nyti.ms/1yU3UbZ) * Risking his political standing, Iran's president has stressed he was determined to clinch a nuclear deal and take on the conservative forces who would prefer not to see an agreement with the West, even if that means continued economic sanctions on Iran. (http://nyti.ms/1GK3YiQ) * Russia's government is in the middle of an all-out fight to preserve the value of the ruble in the face of plummeting oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. In the boldest move yet to stanch the bleeding, the Central Bank of Russia has announced a stunning interest rate increase. (http://nyti.ms/13ssQ2l) * The French government has announced that the company's lower-priced UberPop service would be banned on Jan. 1, the latest in a number of setbacks for Uber, which is facing bans in several cities worldwide. (http://nyti.ms/1wD7fhd) * Activity in China's factory sector contracted in December for the first time in seven months as new orders declined, a preliminary private survey has showed, fuelling expectations that more stimulus will be needed to avert a sharper economic slowdown. (http://nyti.ms/1305Hn3) * British Telecom, the former telecommunications monopoly in Britain, which spun off its previous mobile carrier unit in 2001, has said that it had entered into exclusive talks to acquire EE, the British mobile phone business of Orange of France and Deutsche Telekom of Germany, for about 12.5 billion pounds ($19.56 billion). (http://nyti.ms/1yWPrkx)   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Export Development Canada is lending British telecom giant Vodafone Group PLC $850 million, the bulk of which will be used to finance the purchase of BlackBerry Ltd handsets and services. The financing package comes at an opportune time for BlackBerry, which is poised this week to unveil its latest smartphone. (http://bit.ly/1Gq7osL) ** Talisman Energy Inc has agreed to be acquired by Spain's Repsol SA in an $8.3 billion deal that allows Respol to expand in Canada and internationally at a time of weak energy markets. (http://bit.ly/1xoeDzU) ** A report to be released on Tuesday by the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society says the animals, which roam the northern forests that stretch from British Columbia to Alberta, continue to die off as their ranges are eroded by human activity. (http://bit.ly/1BSDJsv) NATIONAL POST ** After a year and a half in which the Liberals led in the national polls by six to 10 points, the gap has narrowed appreciably in recent weeks. As of last month, an average of polls compiled by threehundredeight.com put the Grits ahead of the governing Conservatives by just three points, 35-32. The latest Ekos poll has them closer still, just a point apart: effectively, a tie. (http://bit.ly/1svVqFU) ** Canadian heavy crude traded below $40 a barrel for the first time in five years just as a surge of new projects are scheduled to start operation. A total of 14 new oilsands projects are scheduled to start next year, with a combined capacity of 266,240 barrels a day, according to data published by Oilsands Review. That's 36 percent more than was started in 2014. (http://bit.ly/1zkILMd)   China CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL - China is pushing forward with the development of the new free trade zone in Guangdong province, with a new trade and service agreement with neighbouring Hong Kong and Macau likely to be signed soon, the paper said. SECURITIES TIMES - China Securities Regulatory Commision (CSRC) fined Ping An Securities 37 million yuan ($5.98 million) for failing to perform due diligence when underwriting Shenzhen Hirisun Technology Inc's IPO. PEOPLE'S DAILY - Reform, the country's key task for economic work next year, is also crucial to promote healthy economic development and social harmony, the paper, which acts as a mouthpiece for the ruling Communist Party, said in a commentary.   Britain The Times BT IN EXCLUSIVE TALKS TO BUY EE FOR 12.5 BLN STG The British mobile phone sector is set for its biggest shake-up since the turn of the century after BT Group Plc entered exclusive negotiations to acquire EE for 12.5 billion pounds. (http://thetim.es/1suKoAv) The Guardian UK FACTORY ORDERS CLIMB TO FOUR-MONTH HIGH, SAYS CBI Britain's manufacturers have had a decent end to the year, but a tough global economy is making life difficult for UK exporters, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said. (http://bit.ly/1Af4WSi) ALISTAIR DARLING'S 5 AM PLEA TO PM IGNORED AFTER SCOTTISH NO VOTE David Cameron ignored a 5 am plea from Alistair Darling in the immediate aftermath of the Scottish referendum to avoid throwing the Scottish National party a lifeline by announcing plans to restrict the voting rights of Scottish MPs. (http://bit.ly/1sxedpX) The Telegraph BGC BUYS BRITISH BROKER RP MARTIN BGC Partners plans to take over rival brokerage RP Martin's British assets before buying out its European offices next year for an undisclosed sum. (http://bit.ly/1wbvnsR) FINANCIAL FUND MANAGER WHO DODGED THOUSANDS IN TRAIN FARES BANNED FROM FINANCIAL INDUSTRY The former BlackRock Inc fund manager who exploited a loophole to dodge thousands of pounds in train fares has been banned from working in financial services. The Financial Conduct Authority said Jonathan Burrows had been barred "from performing any function in relation to any regulated activities for not being fit and proper". (http://bit.ly/1GJHluN) Sky News EX-JJB SPORTS CEO JAILED OVER 1 MLN STG FRAUD The former boss of JJB Sports Plc has been jailed for four years, after pocketing about 1 million pounds in what was described as a "very greedy fraud". A court heard that Chris Ronnie owed more than 10 million pounds to an Icelandic bank when he diverted funds from suppliers going to the sportswear firm. (http://bit.ly/12YRTcE) The Independent ITV AND SATELLITE RIVALS BUTT HEADS OVER PAY-TV FEES FOR FREE CHANNELS A war of words broke out between ITV and its cable and satellite rivals over the X Factor broadcaster's demand that it receive fees from pay-TV platforms for airing its free channels. (http://ind.pn/1yTTdGv)     Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz ECONOMIC REPORTS Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include: Housing starts for November at 8:30--consensus up 3.1% to 1.04M rate Housing permits for November at 8:30--consensus down 2.5% to 1.06M rate Markit flash manufacturing PMI for December at 9:45--consensus 55.2 ANALYST RESEARCH Upgrades Apollo Global (APO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup Camden Property (CPT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup Cirrus Logic (CRUS) upgraded to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer Equity Residential (EQR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup Flagstar Bancorp (FBC) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette GrubHub (GRUB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman Parkway Properties (PKY) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup Plexus (PLXS) upgraded to Strong Buy from Buy at Needham RCS Capital (RCAP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup Range Resources (RRC) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays Rite Aid (RAD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS SunPower (SPWR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley Vulcan Materials (VMC) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman Downgrades Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird American Eagle Energy (AMZG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich Approach Resources (AREX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich Autodesk (ADSK) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill Basic Energy (BAS) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Wunderlich Canadian Oil Sands (COSWF) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays Dollar Tree (DLTR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank Douglas Emmett (DEI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup Eclipse Resources (ECR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays Emerald Oil (EOX) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Wunderlich Entravision (EVC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Evercore ISI Essent Group (ESNT) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette Fifth Street Senior (FSFR) downgraded to Market Perform at JMP Securities First American (FAF) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette General Motors (GM) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Genesee & Wyoming (GWR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill Jones Energy (JONE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays MGIC Investment (MTG) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette Macerich (MAC) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup Martin Marietta (MLM) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman Microsemi (MSCC) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer Microsoft (MSFT) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich Oasis Petroleum (OAS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich Pioneer Energy (PES) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich Priceline (PCLN) downgraded to Buy from Conviction Buy at Goldman Resolute Energy (REN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich SandRidge Energy (SD) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Wunderlich Shutterfly (SFLY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Tanger Factory (SKT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup Weingarten Realty (WRI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup Initiations Antero Resources (AR) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer BB&T (BBT) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Bank of America (BAC) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim CIT Group (CIT) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim Ciena (CIEN) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush Cimarex Energy (XEC) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer Citigroup (C) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Cooper Companies (COO) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer Coty (COTY) initiated with a Hold at KeyBanc DURECT (DRRX) initiated with a Hold at Cantor Escalade (ESCA) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital Extended Stay America (STAY) initiated with a Market Perform at JMP Securities F.N.B. (FNB) Corp. initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan First Horizon (FHN) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim Goldman Sachs (GS) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim Green Plains (GPRE) initiated with a Neutral at Goldman Infinera (INFN) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush JPMorgan (JPM) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Morgan Stanley (MS) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim Neff (NEFF) Corporation initiated with a Buy at Jefferies Neff (NEFF) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray Newfield Exploration (NFX) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer Nike (NKE) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen PNC Financial (PNC) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Peak Resorts (SKIS) initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital Peak Resorts (SKIS) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer Ralph Lauren (RL) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen Regions Financial (RF) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Rexnord (RXN) initiated with a Buy at KeyBanc Santander Consumer (SC) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities ServiceNow (NOW) initiated with a Buy at Goldman Standex (SXI) initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich SunTrust (STI) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Surgical Care Affiliates (SCAI) initiated with a Hold at KeyBanc U.S. Bancorp (USB) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Under Armour (UA) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen Wells Fargo (WFC) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim Whiting Petroleum (WLL) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer COMPANY NEWS Repsol (REPYY) to acquire Talisman (TLM) for $8 per share in cash, for a total transaction value of approximately $13B, including debt Archer Daniels (ADM) to sell global cocoa business to Olam (OLMIY) for $1.3B Boeing (BA) raised its dividend 25%, authorized $12B share repurchase plan Sony Pictures Entertainment confirmed a significant system disruption on Monday, November 24. The company believes names, addresses, social security numbers are among the personally identifiable information individuals provided to SPE that potentially may have been obtained by unauthorized individuals Bank of England said seven of eight banks passed stress test. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), Lloyds (LYG) and Co-operative were found to be the most susceptible to a housing crash and spike in unemployment Prothena (PRTA) received FDA fast track designation for NEOD001 Yamana Gold (AUY) reported new discoveries at Chapada, El Penon Abraxas Petroleum (AXAS) forecast Q4 volumes 6,700-6,800 Boepd and FY15 production 7,200-7,300 Boepd EARNINGS Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include: Fifth Street Asset (FSAM), VeriFone (PAY) Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include: Willbros Group (WG), Willbros Group (WG) Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include: FuelCell (FCEL), PolyMet Mining (PLM) Coca-Cola (KO) forecast FY14 comparable currency neutral EPS growth of 4%-5% and a currency headwind of 7%. The company sees Q4 comparable currency neutral EPS growth to be even to slightly positive, with a 9 point currency headwind on EPS. The company sees  FY15 comparable currency neutral EPS growth similar to FY14 Magellan Health (MGLN) reaffirms FY14 guidance, sees FY 15 adj. EPS $3.28-$3.73, consensus $2.67 3M Company (MMM) backs long-term EPS objective of up 9%-11% per year, sees FY15 EPS $8.00-$8.30, consensus $8.20 Whirlpool (WHR) sees FY14 ongoing EPS $10.90-$11.10, consensus $11.65, sees FY15 ongoing EPS $14.00-$15.00, consensus $14.50 VeriFone (PAY) sees Q1 EPS 40c, consensus 45c, sees FY15 EPS $1.85-$1.90, consensus $1.97 NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES Google (GOOG) to step up challenge to Amazon (AMZN) with new shopping features, WSJ reports Sony (SNE) says film studio's business remains strong, WSJ reports Regulator finds deficiencies with Ocwen (OCN), NY Times reports More companies signing up for Apple Pay (AAPL), NY Times reports Google (GOOG) facing Dutch privacy fine of up to $19M, WSJ reports SYNDICATE Exact Sciences (EXAS) files to sell 4M shares of common stock Millennial Media (MM) files to sell 30.73M shares for holders Solar Power (SOPW) enters definitive agreements on up to $140M in private placement bluebird bio (BLUE) files to sell $150M in common stock    

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16 декабря 2014, 15:09

Repsol покупает канадскую нефтяную фирму Talisman Energy за $8,3 млрд

Испанская энергетическая компания Repsol покупает канадскую нефтяную фирму Talisman Energy за $8,3 млрд, сообщает Associated Press. Образовавшийся конгломерат войдет в число 15 крупнейших частных нефтяных и газовых компаний в мире. ...

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16 декабря 2014, 14:41

Испанская Repsol покупает канадскую Talisman Energy за $13 млрд

Мадрид.    Испанская нефтяная компания Repsol объявила о приобретении канадской энергетической компании Talisman Energy.   Из 13 млрд долларов 8, 3 млрд будет потрачено на покупку, кроме того, Repsol возьмет на себя долги канадской фирмы в размере 4, 7 млрд долларов. Траты будут покрыты за счет ...

16 декабря 2014, 14:39

Turmoil Spreads: Ruble Replunges, Crude Craters, Yen Surges, Emerging Markets Tumbling

For those wondering if the CBR's intervention in the Russian FX market with its shocking emergency rate hike to 17% overnight calmed things, the answer is yes... for about two minutes. The USDRUB indeed tumbled nearly 10% to 59 and then promptly blew right back out, the Ruble crashing in panic selling and seemingly without any CBR market interventions, and at last check was freefalling through 72, and sending the Russian stock market plummeting by over 15%. It is so bad, US equity futures which had jumped earlier on hopes of more Chinese intervention following the latest disastrous Chinese PMI print, as well as a French manufacturing PMI beat (don't laugh), are back to unchanged. The latest rout continues to be driven by the relentless plunge in Brent which also continued crashing overnight to fresh 5 year lows, sliding decidedly under $60 as WTI dropped well under $55 as well. And as we previewed over a month ago, it is not just Russia, but every single petroleum exporting country that is suddenly seeing a currency crisis, and spreading to all EMs with the Indian Rupee weakening the most since 2013, Indonesia lowering the Rupiah's reference rate by the most on record, and so on. Ironically, this happens as the USDJPY is also crashing and dropping moments ago to 116.25, the lowest level since mid-November. At this rate the Fed will have no choice but to intervene, however in the opposite direction, and admit that despite all its best intentions, the US can not decouple from the rest of the world and a rate hike - so very priced in by everyone - is just no going to happen in the coming years (which sadly means that the latest subprime debt driven "recovery" is about to be called off). A quick look at the oil market where Brent drops for 5th day, falls below $60 for 1st time since July 7, 2009 as the market continues to look for signs that falling prices is crimping production. WTI breaks below $55, drops to lowest since May 6, 2009.  "The race to the bottom continues, we are still not seeing any signs of supply disruption,” says Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen. “There is very big negative momentum in the mkt and the fact people are starting to talk about breakeven levels of $35-$40 has put up a new red flag for mkts to aim at.... Jan. WTI options expire today and there is quite a lot of open interest ~$55 put strikes, that is probably the key level of potential support today.” Not helping things was Russia's announcement that it too like the Saudis will not cut production: Russia agrees with OPEC that market will determine crude price, Energy Minister Alexander Novak tells reporters at meeting of Gas Exporting Countries Forum in Doha, Qatar. Novak says that he met with OPEC energy ministers in Vienna; "The participants of that meeting concurred that the situation will be fixed by the market itself in terms of supple and demand balance.  Russia is not a country that changes its supply. We will maintain our production unchanged.” Looking at the Markets, first in Asia, the Nikkei 225 tumbled -2% fell for a 2nd day to breach the key psychological 17,000 level for the first time since the 17th Nov. as the JPY continued to strengthen. In China bad news was good, and the Shanghai Comp surged higher som +2.3% on renewed easing calls following disappointing Chinese data. December HSBC flash Manufacturing PMI printed a contractionary reading for the first time in 7 months (49.5 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 50.0), with both output and new orders components slipping, the latter contracting for the first time since April. Hang Seng traded down 1.55% weighed on by weakness across energy stocks. Despite opening higher, European stocks took a turn lower in early trade, with the move to the downside led by energy names after Brent crude futures broke below USD 60/bbl pre-market and WTI broke below USD 54/bbl. Furthermore, the softness in stocks lifted European fixed income products with the Bund tripping stops through 154.73, leading the German 10yr yield to once again print record lows and slip below 0.6%. Overall global sentiment remains relatively negative with Saudi Arabian (-5.5%) and Dubai (-8%) stock indexes also placed under further pressure as the fall in oil prices continue to dent domestic profits. Furthermore, concerns were also placed on Russia as despite the Russian central bank hiking their rate by 650bps, the RUB hit record lows vs the USD and the MICEX was down as much as 7%. This then triggered fears over the ramifications for the Eurozone economy, given the close trade ties to Russia, particularly for Germany. Nonetheless, European equities then reversed earlier losses, with the move higher led by utility and consumer discretionary names, while Russian asset classes began to stabilise. Additionally, from a data perspective, Eurozone PMIs also painted a less dreary than expected picture with the headline manufacturing and services Eurozone PMIs exceeding expectations. This was then later exacerbated by a particularly strong German ZEW survey (Expectations 34.9 vs. Exp. 20.0), which also subsequently saw Bunds pull away from their best levels. In Summary: European stocks rise led by carmakers after German investor expectations increased more than estimated. Shares with exposure to Russia dropped as the ruble continues its decline. Asian stocks fall as Hong Kong shares enter a correction, U.S. stock index futures gain. Brent crude oil price falls through $60 a barrel for the first time in 5 years. Euro rises against the dollar. S&P 500 futures unchanged, after being up 0.5% Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.7% to 325.44 US 10Y yield down 2bps to 2.1% German 10Y yield down 1bps to 0.61% MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.7% to 134.73 Gold spot up 0.4% to $1198.55/oz M&A Repsol Agrees to Buy Canada’s Talisman for $8.3b RBS Sells Irish Property-Loans Portfolio to Cerberus InterContinental to Purchase Kimpton Hotels for $430m Wanda Said to Be Poised to Raise $3.7b in Hong Kong IPO Woodside to Pay $2.75b for Apache LNG Project Stakes Olam to Buy Archer-Daniels-Midland Cocoa Unit for $1.3b FX/BONDS USDJPY down to 116.290 Euro up 0.5% to $1.25065 Dollar Index down 0.4% to 88.064 Italian 10Y yield up 2bps to 2.02% Spanish 10Y yield up 1bps to 1.8% 3m Euribor/OIS down 1bps to 9.38bps COMMODITIES S&P GSCI index down 1.7% to 434.07 Brent futures down 2.8% to $59.33/bbl, WTI futures down 2.6% to $54.46/bbl LME 3m copper down 0.7% to $6357.25/MT LME 3m nickel down 1.6% to $16192/MT Wheat futures down 0.1% to $618.25/bu Bulleting Headline Summary European stocks rebound from earlier energy/Russia-inspired losses as Eurozone data helps to lift investor sentiment. The USD-index trades in negative territory, with the move lower in US yields hitting the greenback and seeing EUR/USD break above 1.2500. Looking ahead, attention turns towards US housing starts, building permits, manufacturing PMI and API crude oil inventories. Treasuries gain as Brent crude plunges though $60/bbl for first time in five years, ruble slides to record low as investors shrug off surprise Bank of Russia decision to hike its key rate to 17% from 10.5%. HSBC/Markit’s China PMI fell to 49.5 in Dec., lowest in seven months, from 50 in Nov., even after PBOC efforts to ease monetary conditions Manufacturing and services in the 18-nation euro area barely expanded in December as sluggish growth in Germany and France kept business activity subdued Bundesbank’s Jens Weidmann said there’s no need for the ECB to expand monetary stimulus, and argued that sovereign-debt purchases aren’t a solution even if slumping oil prices cause deflation German investor confidence rose for a second month, with ZEW Center’s index rising to 34.9 in Dec. from 11.5 in Nov. U.K. inflation fell to 1% in Nov., lowest in more than a decade, as tumbling oil prices pushed down transport costs and food prices dropped; U.K. 30Y yields fell below 2.5% for the first time on record Sweden’s central bank kept its main interest rate at zero and said it’s preparing more measures to jolt the largest Nordic economy out of a deflationary spiral Norway’s krone dropped to parity with Sweden for the first time since 2000 Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the selloff in emerging markets may worsen, posing the risk of higher borrowing costs and weaker growth in core markets China’s U.S. Treasury holdings fell to a 20-month low in October, as yuan appreciation indicated less of an impetus to buy the government securities Pakistan militants killed 84 children after storming an army-run school in the northwestern city of Peshawar, one of the country’s worst terrorist attacks in years Sovereign yields mostly lower. Nikkei falls 2% as most Asian equity indexes fall; Shanghai +2.3%. European stocks mostly higher, U.S. equity-index futures gain. Brent crude falls 3%, trades below $60/bbl level; copper falls, gold gains US Event Calendar 8:30am: Housing Starts, Nov., est. 1.040m (prior 1.009m) Housing Starts m/m, Nov., est. 3.1% (prior -2.8%) Building Permits, Nov., est. 1.065m (prior 1.080m,  revised 1.092m) Building Permits m/m, Nov., est. -2.5% (prior 4.8%, prior 5.9%) 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Dec. preliminary, est. 55.2 (prior 54.8) Central Banks FOMC two-day meeting begins in Washington Supply FX The main focus has been on the RUB as despite the Russian central bank hiking their key rate by 650bps, USD/RUB has erased its opening losses, with RUB printing a record lows vs. USD and breaking above the 66.00 handle. Allied to this, the USD-index has weakened throughout the morning and made a technical break below 88.00 alongside the move lower in US yields as USTs benefited from a flight to quality. This has also benefited JPY and CHF in a safe-haven Bid, while EUR/USD broke above 1.2500 for the 1st time since 1st Dec. UK inflation data came in at 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.2% and printed its lowest reading since 2002. This subsequently saw a fast-money move lower in GBP/USD of around 46 pips. However, this move to the downside was later reversed, as market participants focused on the fact these numbers do not change the course of BoE action. Finally, the SEK has also weakened throughout the session after the Riksbank this morning kept their key rate on hold at 0.0% as expected but warned the repo rate needs to remain at zero for longer than initially forecast and are preparing further measures that can be used to make monetary policy more expansionary. This has also weighed on neighbouring currency NOK, which also falling victim to the slide in oil prices. COMMODITIES In the commodity complex, energy prices have once again been a key focus after Brent crude futures broke below USD 60/bbl pre-market and WTI broke below USD 54/bbl. This has been a continuation of the bearish rhetoric we’ve seen for the sector following comments yesterday from the UAE oil minister who said OPEC stands by their decision not to cut output even if oil prices fall as low as USD 40/bbl and will wait at least three months before considering an emergency meeting, while Saudi reiterated they have no plans to cut output. In metals markets, precious metals have been granted some reprieve with spot gold breaking above USD 1,200 following the cautious sentiment throughout the session while copper has remained under pressure following lacklustre Chinese HSBC manufacturing data and comments from Deutsche Bank who said the copper market is moving into surplus and the lagged effects of the weaker Chinese property market will hit copper demand. * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight recap We were expecting difficult times before tighter spreads in 2015 but this is already proving to be such a tough December that 2015's returns across many asset classes are going to be influenced by where we end the year. For example, as recently as December 5th many equity markets were trading at YTD or multi month highs. 6 business days later and the turmoil is being seen in Greece, Russia, Oil, many areas of EM and in DM equity and credit markets. In Europe virtually all equity markets are comfortably down for the year now. Some markets have lost a few years of normal sized returns in the last few days alone so this has to impact 2015. Given the mini turmoil, we will truly learn a lot about the Fed tomorrow night as if they become more hawkish we can see that they're comfortable that financial markets are not the primary concern. If they end up being dovish then it's probably a sign that they will struggle to have the confidence to upset markets in 2015 and will only raise rates if both the economy merits it and markets are calm. As we state in the outlook we think they will struggle to raise rates but this might not stop them from signalling an intention to do so in advance. So definitely more volatility than the QE3 period we've now left far behind. Oil continues to dominate headlines with further sharp declines yesterday, extending the 5-year lows and pairing an earlier rally. Indeed both WTI (-3.29%) and Brent (-1.28%) declined to $55.91/bbl and $61.06/bbl and have continued to trade some 0.5-0.6% lower overnight. The oil-sensitive Russian Rouble continues to suffer and yesterday it closed 10.22% lower versus the Dollar at 64.24. The move marked the biggest one-day decline since 1998 taking the year to date decline to nearly 96%. The move appears to have sparked the nation’s Central Bank into action who, post the U.S. close, raised benchmark interest rates by 650bps to 17%. The rate rise marks the sixth hike this year and comes just five days since the last rate move with the Central Bank stating that ‘the decision was driven by the need to limit the risks of devaluation and inflation, which have recently significantly increased’. The move also corresponds with an expansion in foreign currency repo auctions of $3.5bn to $5bn as well as further statements from the Central Bank that GDP may shrink 4.5% to 4.7% next year should oil prices average $60/bbl. The MICEX closed 2.38% lower yesterday and 10y benchmark local government bond yields finished 20bps wider at 13.02%. Expect big moves again this morning. The Russian central bank will no doubt be hoping they can repeat the success of the Turkish central bank earlier this year where they raised rates from 7.75% to 12%. If the new rate is sustained for any length of time it will surely have huge implications for the economy though so it's certainly high risk. Ironically when Russia collapsed in 1998, the Fed slashed rates and arguably started the era of 'moral hazard'. So it'll be interesting if the Fed choose to ignore international events this time round. I suspect they'll find it tough. Returning to markets, in the US the S&P 500 closed 0.63% lower at the close after a volatile day which saw a near 2% intraday range. Energy stocks continued to weigh on the overall index with the component declining 0.71% although in reality all sectors finished weaker. Credit markets softened, CDX IG closing 2bps and CDX HY around half a point lower and spreads on US HY energy names widening a further 18bps. Pressure on smaller oil and gas producers continues with US-based Apache reporting yesterday that it has agreed to sell its stake in a natural gas project whilst the Canadian oil and gas company Talisman Energy confirmed it’s in talks with various targets over a potential sale of the company. Macro data was perhaps a bright spot in an otherwise weaker day. An initially weaker December NY Fed manufacturing reading (-3.58 vs. +12.4 expected) was followed up by a stronger November industrial production (+1.3% vs. +0.7% expected) print and capacity utilization (80.1% vs. 79.4%) reading. On the firmer industrial production print in particular, the reading was the highest since May 2010 and our US colleagues note that at its current level, production is growing at a near 8% annualized rate relative to its Q3 average, supporting the case for a strong Q4 GDP number. Just rounding off the data prints in the US yesterday, the NAHB housing market notched down slightly to 57 for December. Treasuries took something of a back seat, the yield on the 10y benchmark bouncing off Friday’s lows to close 1.8bps higher at 2.118%. Closer to home and with a lack of data releases, risk assets took a sharp leg lower in Europe with the Stoxx 600 closing 2.08% lower - with similar weakness in energy names (-2.95%) – the index now 1.5% in negative territory YTD. There was similar weakness in credit markets with Xover finishing 19bps wider. Whilst core yields closed largely unchanged, supportive comments from ECB officials Visco and Nowotny helped support peripheral bonds with 10y benchmark yields in Spain (-9.1bps), Italy (-6.8bps) and Portugal (-5.6bps) all closing tighter at 1.789%, 1.996% and 2.916% respectively. Recapping the comments, the ECB’s Visco commented in Rome that the central bank could begin large-scale asset purchases ‘rather quickly’ if deflation risks continue citing the threat from oil price declines. This was followed up by Austria’s central bank governor Nowotny who stated that any further QE measures would be the ‘prospect of missing our target on price stability in the longer term’. One of the ECB’s preferred measure of inflation expectations - the EUR 5y5y inflation swap rate - extended declines to close at 1.67% yesterday and mark a 10-year low. With chatter around further ECB broad-based asset purchases likely to attract more headlines in the new-year, a Bloomberg survey yesterday showed that 90% of respondents expect sovereign QE in 2015 from 57% last month. Interestingly with the large sell off in risk assets in Europe yesterday, Greek equities closed firmer ahead of tomorrow’s election with the ASE ending +1.45% stronger at the end of play. Greek government bonds also recovered somewhat with 3y and 5y yields tightening 87bps and 34bps respectively. DB’s resident expert George Saravelos noted that there is little change in terms of current government support ahead of tomorrow’s first-round presidential election (due 5.00pm GMT) with initial ‘bean-count’ estimates still below the 180 votes required for the final vote. Turning our attention over to markets this morning, following the disturbing scenes in Sydney yesterday, the ASX 200 is -0.65% and AUD is holding in at 0.82 to the Dollar. With the exception of China, equities are weaker in Asia this morning with the Nikkei, Hang Seng and KOSPI -1.85%, -1.40% and -0.83% respectively. The CSI 300 (+1.03%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.85%) have strengthened despite a weak flash HSBC manufacturing PMI print. The 49.5 reading for December is below the 49.8 consensus and down from 50 last month with the print the first below 50 since May. Looking ahead to today’s calendar and away from the start of the FOMC meeting, we kick this morning off in Europe with the flash manufacturing and services PMI prints for the Eurozone as well as regionally for both France and Germany. Elsewhere we’ll keep an eye on the BoE statement on the financial stability report due out this morning with Carney speaking shortly after, as well as UK inflation data. We round off the key releases this morning with the ZEW survey out of Germany. Across the Atlantic this afternoon we’ve got housing data to keep an eye on with both building and November housing starts due. This is followed up later in the US with the flash manufacturing PMI print.     

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16 декабря 2014, 14:36

Repsol купит канадскую Talisman Energy за $13 млрд

Испанская нефтяная компания Repsol договорилась о покупке канадской Talisman Energy за $13 млрд вместе с ее долгами, которые составляют $4,7 млрд. Об этом сообщает Reuters со ссылкой на пресс-релиз Repsol.