SCOTT JOHNSON: What’s Next? “You have to wonder what comes next after the hysteria manifested by the Democrat/Media Axis in the first 10 days of the Trump administration. They have turned up the ‘resistance’ to 11, Spinal Tap style.” The more they try to “de-normalize” Trump, the less normal they seem.
Having cautioned that the economic macro surprise rally of the past three months... ... has been mostly based on the back of "soft data" surprises, in other words, hope and moistly animal spirits, which "are driving the bulk of the US data surprises"... ... today, RBC's head of cross-asset strategy Charlie McElligott looks at the first sharp selloff, coupled by a vol spike and observes that one week after the first Trumpflation jitters, the Trump trade on Monday appears to be losing policy momentum, and as a result "profit-taking of longs ensues." As McElligott notes, it has been an agitated market to start the week, with VIX seeing its largest intraday move so far in 2017 as we see thematic winners of the past three months being unwound. It's not a puke just yet, as we are "still not getting that ‘FTQ’ bid we’d come to expect in the old “risk-OFF” regime, with USTs (and Dollar) essentially unch. This says to me that it is STOCKS which have discounted the most +++ inputs of potential Trump policy (see last Wednesday’s price-action), and is thus the most ripe for a re-pricing of his ability to ‘steady the ship’ with suddenly-waning policy momentum." The good news for bulls hoping that BTFD will quickly reemerge, is that much of this move is long overdue, and is likely not the precursor of a sharp move lower: "today’s story feels much like that overdue selloff with nervy profit-taking and some recent risk “renters” tapping quickly on tight-stops. From a ‘sustainability of the drawdown’ perspective, this quick blast of volatility off of a historically low-base isn’t enough to trigger much if any mechanical deleveraging from the mechanical ‘vol control’ community in-and-of itself, with 20 day S&P historical vol still sitting (laughably) with a 7-handle." Unless, of course, it is. So what does the RBC strategist say to expect from markets in the coming days? The following 4 points summarize his views: 1) Stocks—much more so than FX or rates—are the asset-class bearing the majority brunt of this weekend’s chief geopolitical consternation. It ‘seems’ that the discombobulated implementation of Trump’s immigration orders has ‘furthered’ the market concerns on protectionism and the potential for Trump’s usage of “executive orders” to have “jumped the shark” just a few weeks into his tenure. The growing list of fellow-Republicans lashing-out at the immigration order—as well as the obvious lack of cohesion with the messaging even with the Trump administration--are raising concerns on ‘lost momentum’ with regards to what the stock market really wants from POTUS: tax policy clarity. As stocks have been the area “quickest” to discount expectations of lower corp tax rates, they “wear it” when markets now begin to reprice Trump’s ability to “get deals done.” As has been stated over the past week in “RBC Big Picture” there is now growing speculation that the tax plan won’t be clarified until well through the Summer (Reuters this weekend http://reut.rs/2kFdaSF), especially as the ‘funding’ side of a BAT remains yet to be seen—which means it currently isn’t ‘revenue neutral’ which is a demand from many GOP lawmakers. As forward earnings estimates are increasingly-contingent upon the ‘corp tax rate cut’ and ‘dereg’ components of his policy, there is thus mounting nervousness about recent buyers at all-time highs in US stocks turning tail (note: Asset Managers are now notionally long $80B of US equity futures , making year-and-a-half cumulative highs) if ‘reality’ weren’t to meet the heavy ‘expectation’ on policy which has been incorporated into current pricing. * * * 2) Today’s particulars show something interesting: both the thematic “reflation” and “Trump winners” (most clearly expressed in 4Q16—border tax beneficiaries, dereg beneficiaries, infrastructure beneficiaries, security beneficiaries, domestic-gearing beneficiaries) and 1Q17’s “mean-reversion” leaders are under pressure. This means that today we see both the “‘cyclical beta’ / ‘small cap’ (large IWM downside trades today) / ‘value’ / ‘high beta’” cohort is trading-off IN CONJUNCTION WITH “‘secular growers’ / ‘momentum’” Q1 leadership selling-off as well (tech sector specific concerns on H1-B impact for workers). What is working should of course not surprise: ‘low vol’ / ‘quality’ / ‘defensives’ / ‘anti-beta.’ Basically, longs are being sold while shorts are added / pressed—thus, today is NOT a ‘gross-down’ or ‘wholesale de-risking’ day. Less tactically / away from the ‘now’ of today’s ugly tape… * * * 3) As has been discussed since mid-December—when anticipation of a “January Effect” saw funds putting on “reversal strategies” in equities factors earlier than usual—“Growth” and “Momentum” factors have been significant outperformers, with both leading all factor market-neutral strategies YTD. The interesting thing here is that this comes following 2016 where “Growth” and “Momentum” were the two worst-performing factor m/n strategies YTD…confirming another victory for the January mean-reversion strategy. More granularly, the performance of “Growth” has helped drive the large YTD gains in Tech and Consumer Discretionary sectors against lagging (former high-flyer) “Value” and “Anti-Beta” factor m/n (representing cyclicals and defensives, respectively). The performance of 1m “Momentum” factor m/n would reasonably reflect this same “Growth vs Value” reversal, as ‘momentum longs’ are led by Tech, Materials (S&P’s best performing sector YTD), Consumer Disc and Industrials, while ‘momentum shorts’ are heavily represented by Cons Disc as well as Healthcare, Tech and Energy (S&P’s worst performing sector YTD, after being last year’s “value” darling). This also highlights the significant move higher in dispersion (or correlation breakdown) as we see sectors representing across both momentum leaders and laggards. * * * 4) On that note, an interesting anecdote picked-up from an astute client and friend this weekend regarding the extreme nature of increasing single-stock dispersion currently being experienced in the market-place, which I will paraphrase: “For over the last month plus, watching our portfolio grind higher it feels like 10- to 20- some basis points on the majority of days, which seems kinda sleepy...but when I look at the individual names in our long and short books, I am seeing HUGE moves daily. Both books at times are riddled with many stocks seeing 2 and 3 standard deviation moves....it is CRAZY what is going on “under the hood,” when on the index level, it’s so optically calm.” Idiosyncratic stock-risk is returning, and that is a sign of a market normalizing from years of central bank volatility suppression = score one for active management. * * * While that would be great news for hedge funds if true, we look forward to learning from bulge bracket prime brokers in a few days time if hedge funds finally managed to outperform the S&P, or if 2017 has started off in familiar fashion, with the "smart money" once again nothing but heavily levered beta.
Everything old is new again in the car business, with nameplates like Continental, Bronco, and even Grand Wagoneer returning to showrooms.
Missing from the marches on Saturday was Saul Alinsky, the legendary organizer of decades ago who, beyond marching, conceived clever campaigns to drive social change in America -- by driving established authorities crazy. Here is a simple example, in the spirit of Alinsky: In the late 1960s, in San Antonio, Texas, people who were fed up with their utility company overpaid their bill by 1¢. That simple cent, multiplied many times over, tied the bureaucracy in knots. It gave in. From schoolyards to the White House to the global marketplace, it is remarkable how easily bullies can be outmaneuvered by a bit of imagination. To quote Alinsky in his book Rules for Radicals: "...the disturbance would [have to] be utterly outside the experience of the establishment, which was expecting the usual stuff of mass meetings, street demonstrations, confrontations and parades." David brought down Goliath with an unexpected stone. (Of course, the Bible tells us that Joshua brought down the walls of Jericho with a march. But don't expect this to happen again.) he president of the United States is big and boastful too -- and no less vulnerable. His offensive proposals can be brought down, not by violence or the breaking of laws, but by plain old ingenuity. While hitting them where it hurts, bear in mind one of Alinsky's basic tactics: "Ridicule is [the] most potent weapon. It is almost impossible to counterattack ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, who then react to your advantage." Trump it is! Well before Saturday, he was aware of the intense resitance to his election. Indeed, the marches may have strengthened his resolve. While millions of women were voting with their feet, on the ground, one man in the White House was consolidating a cabinet that will violate their interests. And quite the cabinet it is: Exxon and Goldman Sachs taking on the establishment! In alternate fact, there are two establishments in America, business and government, and the stronger has just taken control of the weaker. Business no longer need merely lobby government; now it is government. Things will get worse before they can get better. How, then, to get them better? Tap into the energy of Saturday's marches. See them as the foundation on which to build a framework for action. It is telling how many people -- tellingly, mosty women--were prepared to express their concerns publicly, no few marching for the first time. With a taste of acting together, all these people constitute a potent starting point for change -- but only that. Mass action will have to follow, creatively targeted at specific proposals coming out of this administration. Please understand that this is about more than Donald Trump. He is an extreme symptom of problems that have been festering for years, in America and, increasingly, elsewhere: income inequalities, legalized bribery (in the form of political donations), unregulated globalization run rampant, and so much more, resulting in the demise of democracy and the denigration of decency. Some voters, not knowing which way to turn, have brought into power a slew of bullies all over the world. Figuratively and almost literally, these people will be pouring oil on the fires of this planet. It will thus fall to the concerned folks, all over the world, to do something about this. Bear in mind what made America great in the first place: protest turned into inspired action against indecent authority. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
OUCH: Susan Rice, policy wonk and former Dukakis & Clinton aide, who had no military experience whatsoever* before getting tapped as National Security Advisor by the Obama administration in 2013, blasts Trump’s decision to “remove military advice” from the National Security Council. Conveniently not mentioned is that Rice was replaced as National Security Advisor by […]
Bastian Schweinsteiger capped his first Manchester United start in over a year with a goal, whilst Marouane Fellaini, Chris Smalling, Henrikh Mkhitaryan also netted 5.49pm GMT That was comfortable in the end, after Wigan showed some real fight in the first half. Fellaini’s goal just before half-time was a real killer for the Championship side. Mourinho will be pleased with the day’s work, Schweinsteiger and Shaw got a run out, as did the debutants Pereira and Tuanzebe. Martial went from awful as United No9 to arguably their best player when he switched to the left wing. No injuries to any players, and some key players rested for their game against Hull City on Wednesday.For Wigan, the focus is now wholly on avoiding relegation from the Championship. They are two points adrift of safety at present, and play Sheffield Wednesday on Friday. 5.48pm GMT 86 min: Martial scores … no Neil Swarbrick disallows it for a high foot from Schweinsteiger! Martial will have desperately wanted a goal to cap (what turned out to be) a good performance, but it is not to be. Buxton competed for a corner with his head, and was caught by Schweinsteiger, before Martial neatly controlled and powered his effort past Haugaard. Continue reading...
Donald Trump’s first television interview as president has received a glorious “This Is Spinal Tap” makeover. BuzzFeed editor Jesse McLaren dubbed audio from the 1984 comedy’s iconic “up to 11” scene over Wednesday’s footage of Trump discussing the size of the crowds at his inauguration with ABC News anchor David Muir. The resulting clip, which McLaren posted to Twitter on Thursday, is hilarious: Spinal Tap audio under Trump is pic.twitter.com/zXgKNMxWbd— Jesse McLaren (@McJesse) January 26, 2017 McLaren said the inspiration for the parody came from filmmaker BenDavid Grabinski, who posted a joke on the same theme to Twitter. Inspiration for putting Trump under Spinal Tap / early Follow Friday. https://t.co/vL9ePKXixo— Jesse McLaren (@McJesse) January 26, 2017 Watch the clip above, and see the original scene from Rob Reiner’s movie below: type=type=RelatedArticlesblockTitle=Related Coverage + articlesList=58820c24e4b070d8cad1ead2,5888addae4b0441a8f71f0fe,58873f1be4b0e3a7356ba58f,588c46dfe4b08a14f7e60fcf -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
The ritual of double cleansing has become standard for many beauty enthusiastsFew products have been so keenly anticipated as influential blogger Caroline Hirons’ new Double Cleanse (£24), a duo comprising a solid oil cleanser for makeup removal and a cream to cleanse the naked skin beneath. The ritual of double cleansing has become standard for many beauty enthusiasts, who take the view that a single cleanse is akin to bathing fully clothed.I broadly agree, at least when wearing foundation and heavy eye makeup (I practically never use eye makeup remover: there’s no need if your cleanser’s up to the job). Hirons, a fellow cleansing zealot, has been smart to tap into this one sound idea rather than to launch a comprehensive range, and has piggybacked on a popular existing (if sometimes inconsistent) brand, Pixi, instead of starting from scratch. Continue reading...
Scarlett Johansson is set to star in a live-action version of 'Ghost in the Shell' next year. Here's why we are still worried about the film.
SAO PAULO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - General Atlantic LLC has tapped Latin America Managing Director Martín Escobari to become co-chairman of the U.S. private equity firm's global investment committee, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said on Friday.
Mercedes-Benz taps the Coen Brothers for a Super Bowl ad that can only be termed, "born to be wild." See it here.
Investors could tap solid Q4 Intel's results and the upcoming surge in its share price with the help of ETFs that have a large allocation to the biggest semiconductor company.
The electorate consists of just 447 voters, but candidates to be the next Democratic National Committee chair may end up spending a small fortune anyway.The seven Democrats running to lead the national party expect the price of a successful campaign to be over six figures, with some party officials figuring that a winning bid might end up costing more than some congressional races.“The cheapest race — contest, candidate, whatever — is going to be $100,000 and probably as much as half a million or more,” estimated Don Fowler Jr., who ran for DNC chair in 2005.There are no spending figures available for the contest, which will be decided Feb. 23 at the DNC winter meeting in Atlanta. And staffers and candidates are loathe to go on record about exactly how much much money they're specifically aiming to raise or spend. But according to interviews with candidates, their staffers and veterans of past DNC chair races, the price of entry this year is about $100,000, and some candidates could end up spending more than $500,000, depending on the size of the campaign and how long the candidate has been in the hunt for the post.“We’ve raised, I think, around $75,000 so we’re doing good. I’d like to raise another $25,000 in the next two weeks or so. So that piece has been going fine,” said Idaho Democratic Party Executive Director Sally Boynton Brown, who entered the race in mid-December.Simon Rosenberg, who ran for DNC chair against former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean in 2005, guessed that his campaign spent $250,000 to $300,000 in what was essentially a two-month effort."In part, that’s because there was a lot of travel as there is in this one, just moving, going to these regional forums and bringing a handful of staff. We didn't travel with a ton of people but we traveled with some and that cost money,” said Rosenberg. “The structural reason that this is so expensive is that it's actually organizationally very expensive to run for chair because the way the voting happens is that it's very decentralized."That organizational effort includes travel across the country to personally woo undecided DNC members and attending regional candidate forums. There’s also staff costs -- several of this year’s candidates have formal campaign managers and designated fundraising directors running their operations. While none of the candidates travels with a significant entourage, a handful of staffers at the forums is par for the course."Believe it or not, running around the country, takes a lot more arms and legs than you think. We're in a media environment today where it's not just a handful of national newspapers anymore," Mark Longabaugh, a Democratic strategist and former top adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders' presidential campaign, said. "It is much more difficult to servicing the news in a national context today, so that takes a press staff."According to a member of Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison's campaign, his DNC team alone numbers nearly 20. Ellison has moved his district director over to his campaign and brought on Nick Carter to help with DNC member outreach. Some of his staff have participated in mock debates ahead of the DNC forums. The Minnesota congressman, who announced his bid in November, also has a press secretary just for the DNC effort as well as a communications director. Similarly, former Labor Secretary Tom Perez has a campaign manager, multiple communications staffers, and Clayton Cox, the former southern regional finance director for the DNC. Boynton Brown, Buckley, and Harrison have a handful of paid staff each. South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, mayor of a small city, has a campaign manager, general consultant, outreach director and media consultants and communications staffers.Rosenberg recalled that he had a staff of about 30 — and his campaign manager alone was paid about $10,000 a month. His staff included Jill Daschle, the daughter-in-law of the former senator, as a fundraiser to boost his coffers.The methods of raising the cash necessary to compete range from email solicitations to more formal events — for the candidates, it’s good practice for a job in which fundraising is an essential component. Ellison, according to his team, has held fundraisers so far in Minneapolis and San Francisco. Perez held a Washington, D.C. fundraiser on Thursday co-hosted by his team and a host of top names in the Democratic fundraising community — Jeremy Bird, a former top Obama strategist, Sam Brown, a former DNC finance chief of staff, and Meaghan Burdick who ran marketing for Senate and House Democrats' respective campaign arms. South Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jaime Harrison, who has held fundraisers in his home state and is planning to do more in New York and D.C., notes that it's easier for elected officials like Ellison or Buttigieg who have fundraising infrastructures in place than it is for party officials like himself or New Hampshire Democratic Party Chairman Ray Buckley or Boynton Brown."It's a challenge, particularly in such a short time frame after a presidential election when there's so much donor fatigue already. It is an extreme advantage to have a congressional campaign account or whatever account that you can utilize and tap into in order to pay for this," Harrison said.Rosenberg, the founder of the New Democrat Network and one of the last DNC candidates to drop out of the race against Dean, said he lasted as long as he did because of his fundraising strength."In part, I had been raising money for years among party people and it was one of the reasons I was able to raise money very rapidly," he said. "Look, one of the reasons I was competitive, I had already been out raising money among party people. I'd been deeply involved among elections and I got endorsed by people like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom. I had a huge national footprint of elected officials that supported me. But the other piece of it was I worked in 49 out of 50 states so I had somebody who was politically connected who I could call on in every state. Many of these other people [currently] running don't really have a similar footprint."It’s a lot of work for a job that isn’t all that appealing, said Democratic strategist Eric Adelstein. "It's a thankless job. The only benefit is you get floor passes to the Democratic National Convention," Adelstein said. "Other than that, that's a lot of money to spend for floor passes to the convention. You could be a donor to the party and get that."
SAO PAULO, Jan 27 (Reuters) - General Atlantic LLC has tapped Latin America Managing Director Martín Escobari to become co-chairman of the U.S. private equity firm's global investment committee, a Brazilian blog said on Friday.
Diageo plc's (DEO) earnings in first-half fiscal 2017 increased 21% (in local currency) year over year to 61.7 pence (78.4 cents* per share) from 51.3 pence (86 cents* per share) driven by higher sales.
With "fake news" a dominant conversation topic in recent months, we would like to remind readers that "non-GAAP reporting" has only recently became a distinctly political phenomenon, although it has been present in economic and financial circles for a long, long time. Nowehere is this more obvious today, than in the following "headline" revision from MarketWatch, summarizing today's GDP report, before and after the infamous "tap on the shoulder." h/t @marketlizard
Achievement comes from a contempt for pain—from relentlessness. That's the one commonality in the creatives, business icons, and entrepreneurs I know. They stay in when, past some point, as the strain or agony is too high, others tap out. When I want a reminder, I think of horror writer Dean Koontz.