• Теги
    • избранные теги
    • Компании1488
      • Показать ещё
      Разное875
      • Показать ещё
      Международные организации67
      • Показать ещё
      Страны / Регионы811
      • Показать ещё
      Люди159
      • Показать ещё
      Показатели68
      • Показать ещё
      Формат28
      Издания72
      • Показать ещё
24 июня, 12:08

15 Celebrity Flings You Probably Didn’t Know About

Hollywood can bring some pretty unlikely pairs together. Here are 15 surprising celebrity flings that you've probably never heard of.

24 июня, 10:15

GGP: Turkish Stream Déjà Vu

The statements, opinions and data contained in the content published in Global Gas Perspectives are solely those of the individual authors and contributors and not of the publisher and the editor(s) of Natural Gas World. This article by Mikhail Krutikhin was originally published...

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 08:03

Mexico Uses Israeli Spyware to Target Lawyers, Journalists and Activists

"We have an alliance between the Mexican government and the Trump administration against the Mexican people," says John Ackerman, editor-in-chief of the Mexican Law Review. "We're being massacred and spied on systematically in Mexico." Visit http://therealnews.com for more stories and help support our work by donating at http://therealnews.com/donate.

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 07:53

Suicide bomber blows himself up as Saudis foil Mecca plot

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — A suicide bomber blew himself up near the Grand Mosque at Mecca as police disrupted a plot to target the holiest site in Islam just as the fasting month of Ramadan ends, Saudi security forces said Saturday.

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 06:02

The Latest: Lebanon’s Hezbollah condemns Mecca bombing

The Latest on a foiled plot targeting the Grand Mosque in the holy Muslim city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia (all times local):

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 05:29

Suicide bomber blows himself up as Saudis foil Mecca plot

A suicide bomber blew himself up near the Grand Mosque in Mecca as police disrupted a plot to target the holiest site in Islam just as the fasting month of Ramadan ends, Saudi security forces said Saturday.

24 июня, 05:15

Grand Jury's 'Myth' Report On A California Jail Snitch Scandal Draws Criticism

LOS ANGELES ― A grand jury in California that investigated an Orange County jailhouse informant program, which a Superior Court judge and a state appeals court have agreed clearly exists, issued an unsettling report last week claiming that it is a “myth” largely created by the defense in a mass murder case and the media and that there is no widespread cheating by district attorney’s and sheriff’s officials, even though another ruling Friday in a murder case again indicated it is true. At the center of the scandal are allegations that sheriff’s deputies have for decades planted informants next to targeted inmates in the county’s jails and have directed them to fish for incriminating evidence to help secure convictions. While it’s legal for law enforcement authorities to use informants to help bolster cases, in many Orange County trials, it’s alleged that the informants questioned inmates who were represented by lawyers, violating their right to counsel. Prosecutors are accused of presenting damning evidence gathered by the informants in court while withholding other evidence that could have been beneficial to the defense. That would violate a defendant’s right to due process. While the Orange County grand jury conceded that there have been some violations in a “small number” of cases, it’s largely due to “laxness in supervision” at the agencies, which, the grand jury said, have moved to correct course. The grand jury also found that ongoing hearings related to the misuse of informants inside county jails, which are being conducted as part of the penalty phase in the case against mass killer Scott Dekraai, are nothing more than a “witch hunt” that the grand jury suggested should be stopped. Dekraai pleaded guilty to murdering eight people in a Seal Beach hair salon in 2011. He is still awaiting sentencing while the courts wrangle over allegations of malfeasance in the use of a jail informant who was allegedly planted in a cell next to Dekraai. At stake is whether the court will impose a death sentence. The Orange County Sheriff’s Department and Orange County district attorney’s office have long denied that their officials have cheated to secure convictions. And the grand jury indicated that they should be believed. But the grand jury’s findings fly in the face of years of litigation, a mountain of evidence and multiple court rulings. Just Friday, an appeals court unanimously affirmed a ruling that the district attorney’s office improperly withheld records on a jailhouse informant used in the 2005 double-murder trial of Henry Rodriguez, who was freed in May 2016 after spending 18 years in prison. His attorney told the Los Angeles Times that he was never contacted by the grand jury about Rodriguez’s case. The grand jury’s findings have left many legal experts startled and deeply concerned that there must be an outside, independent probe of the allegations, beyond the investigation by the county’s grand jury. “I was surprised and distressed by the grand jury report,” Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of law at the University of California, Berkeley, told HuffPost. Laura Fernandez, a senior Liman Fellow at Yale Law School who studies prosecutorial misconduct around the nation, said that “this situation calls for a genuinely independent inquiry, one that asks real questions in the hopes of getting real answers.” Here’s some of the reasons the report left many feeling that an independent probe is desperately needed now more than ever before.  Grand jury says it’s just “rogue deputies” who worked informants improperly, despite court evidence. While the grand jury accepts that the Orange County Sheriff’s Department may be using jailhouse informants, in its report it advances a narrative that sheriff’s supervisors gave at recent Superior Court hearings linked to the jail informant scandal. They testified that it was merely a small group of rogue deputies who were illegally working with informants that violated the rights of numerous defendants and that it was done behind the backs of their supervisors. But that narrative disintegrated over the last two weeks of testimony as a deputy and a supervisor indicated that the department’s upper management were aware of deputies’ actions with jail informants and that deputies received supervisor approval to do that work. There’s also a stack of internal memos that have been produced in court that detail the clear understanding of widespread use of jailhouse informants all the way up the chain of command at the sheriff’s office for more than a decade. One internal memo, dated March 2007 and sent from a sheriff’s sergeant on up to a captain, celebrates the “intelligence gathering” skills of the Special Handling unit at one county jail. It states that the jail unit “possesses an excellent expertise in the cultivation and management of informants” ― expertise “recognized by the Orange County District Attorney’s Office as well as numerous law enforcement agencies throughout Southern California.”  A 2009 internal OCSD memo sent to command staff requests permission from an assistant sheriff to place an informant next to an inmate charged with murder so the conversation can be recorded. The assistant sheriff granted permission the same day it was requested.  A 2008 memo from deputies to members of the department’s command staff indicates that nearly a decade ago the OCSD admitted it had already cultivated “hundreds of confidential informants.” Another internal memo from 2007 details a large informant presence in the jails, saying there were “in excess of 40 [informants] throughout the facility” at the time. There’s also an internal memo once posted on a wall in the office of the Special Handling unit, which dealt with jail informants. The memo listed deputies’ duties, including “Cultivate/manage Confidential Informants.” Before their report was published, grand jurors heard the testimony and observed the key documents being discussed in the courtroom. Grand jurors also had access to court briefs on the internal OCSD memos and other evidence. But the report doesn’t address that testimony or evidence. The sheriff’s department, responding to a request for comment, directed HuffPost to its statement last week on the release of the grand jury report that says it “validates many past statements made by Sheriff Sandra Hutchens regarding the use of jailhouse informants and confirms a departmentally sanctioned program does not exist.” Report doesn’t address accusations that the D.A.’s office failed to turn over internal informant records. The Orange County district attorney’s office maintains a database of informant records called the Orange County Informant Index, a set of records on jailhouse informants maintained by the prosecutors’ office stretching back decades. But Assistant Public Defender Scott Sanders ― Dekraai’s defense attorney, who, in a series of bombshell motions, has unearthed evidence of a long-concealed snitch program operating inside county jails ― argues that the D.A.’s office has repeatedly failed to turn over those records in various cases and has struggled with producing these records for at least two decades. Sanders obtained a 1999 letter sent to Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas from the California attorney general’s office in which David Druliner, who headed the state attorney general’s criminal division, describes his serious concern about the unwillingness of prosecutors ― including the head of Rackauckas’ homicide unit ― to turn over informant evidence favorable to a man on death row. Druliner threatened to turn the evidence over himself, which ultimately forced the district attorney’s office to comply. The grand jury report does address the existence of an informant database and concedes that some prosecutors have used “flawed legal reasoning” when deciding not to disclose informant information from it, but the report gives little sense of the scope of the problem, it does not address the letter nor what it suggests about Rackauckas’ apparent ambivalence to determining whether other cases were affected.  Sanders told HuffPost that he sat down with the grand jury’s informant committee and its adviser, former U.S. Attorney Andrea Ordin, and raised the issue of the Rackauckas-Druliner exchange but that they appeared disinterested. “Omitting from the report any mention of the letter and the cases in which index entries were hidden over the past three decades corroborates that the grand jury was simply never going to call it straight when it came to the D.A.’s office,” Sanders said. Ordin did not respond to HuffPost’s requests for comment. The D.A.’s office misconduct identified by Superior Court Judge Thomas Goethals in the Dekraai penalty phase, which led to the OCDA office being recused from the case, was affirmed last November by the state’s 4th District Court of Appeal, but that ruling is addressed in the report only as a footnote.  The D.A.’s office was also found to be attempting to steer murder cases away from Goethals, a tactic called “blanket papering.” In 55 of 58 cases over two years, county prosecutors apparently tried to avoid Goethals. Superior Court Judge Richard King said the tactic had “substantially disrupted the orderly administration of criminal justice in the county.” “Remember here the Court of Appeal described the behavior of the OC district attorney as egregious,” Chemerinsky said. “The D.A.’s office abused its power by ‘papering’ Judge Goethals in retaliation in 55 of 58 cases over a two-year period. The D.A.’s own commission made recommendations that have been ignored. None of this is reflected in the grand jury report.” Rackauckas has long maintained that no one in his office intentionally behaved inappropriately in relation to the jailhouse informant program and that no prosecutors have illegally withheld evidence. The district attorney’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment, but in response to the grand jury findings, it said last week that the report “confirms the steadfast position” of the district attorney’s office and that the grand jury “debunked the media ‘witch hunt’ for agency corruption.” Would an illegally operated informant program have “job descriptions” and “calendaring of events”? Grand jury thinks it must. The grand jury strongly condemned the claims of what it called a “structured jailhouse informant program” operating in the Orange County jails and argued that allegations that the district attorney’s office and sheriff’s department conspired to violate inmates’ rights through the use of such a program are “unfounded.” “That narrative does not stand up to factual validation,” the report reads. The grand jury says it found no evidence of a “strategic plan” or “schedule” for jail snitches, no “formal training,” “dedicated budget,” “codified job descriptions” or “calendaring of events” for a jailhouse informant program. Legal experts were puzzled by this insistence that a shadow program in county jails wouldn’t exist without having a formal organization.  “Noting the absence of ‘definitive’ evidence of a ‘structured’ jailhouse informant program, the grand jury simply dismissed outright the possibility of something more covert and loosely organized than what it allegedly set out to find,” Fernandez, the Yale fellow, told HuffPost. The grand jury, Fernandez argued, never stopped to consider “whether evidence of ‘strategic plans,’ ‘dedicated budgets’ and ‘calendared events’ was something one might really hope to find in the context of an (illegal) informant program.” Moreover, the grand jury does not explain why it has focused on determining whether a formally structured informant program existed instead of analyzing case by case how fair trials may have been affected by jail informant evidence.   For instance, court records indicate that one section of the jail, called L-20, which was officially designated a mental health ward but has recently come to be understood as an “informant tank,” appears to have been used for years to obtain evidence in violation of defendants’ rights. The use of informant tanks is not discussed in the grand jury report.  “They omitted everything that would have decimated their conclusions,” Sanders told HuffPost. “For instance, before the ‘rogue’ deputies did their work, supervisors bragged about the cultivation of hundreds of jail informants done by different deputies. Would those deputies qualify as ‘rogue,’ too, even as their bosses gloated about the informant work they orchestrated? This group ... showed not the slightest sign they were concerned about all the evidence kept from indigent defendants.” Grand jury may have overstepped its authority in suggesting Dekraai hearings should end. The grand jury’s report implies that Judge Goethals should cease the ongoing evidentiary hearings in the Dekraai case. “Any further investigation of potential widespread, systemic institutional wrongdoing surrounding discovery or informant issues in Orange County would be far more appropriately addressed by these agencies and not by the trial court for the largest confessed mass murderer in Orange County history,” the report reads. While a grand jury has broad authority granted by statute to investigate matters of local, city or county concern, it does not have the authority to investigate matters of state concern. Superior Courts are considered state courts. So, questioning an ongoing hearing conducted by a Superior Court judge appears to fall outside its mission. The grand jury report must be authorized by the Superior Court, but the court does have the right to refuse the filing if the report “exceeds established legal limits,” according to state statute. The courts are not bound to act upon the grand jury report other than to be informed by it. The public information officer for the Orange County Superior Court system, under which the grand jury falls, told HuffPost in a statement that the Superior Court signed off on the grand jury report before it was published and posted but that the presiding judge can reject a report if it exceeds the grand jury’s authority. When asked if the court believed the grand jury may have exceeded its authority, the office said it could not provide insight “into the judicial decision-making process.” Report’s tone breeds skepticism. The tone of the report, which is dismissive of the years-long efforts by multiple lawyers and judges in the county, has also raised questions about its fairness, particularly with information coming to light that the grand jurors met with dozens of prosecutors but few defense attorneys.  The jail informant program is a “myth,” the grand jury declared. Current investigations of the sheriff’s department and prosecutors are a “witch hunt,” it said. And even when the grand jury argued that just a few deputies might have illegally used jail informants, the deputies were presented as having somewhat noble intensions, that they had gotten “carried away with efforts to be crime-fighters.” “Once I saw them describe the investigation as a ‘witch hunt,’ I was very skeptical of the report,” Chemerinsky said. Fernandez said that the grand jury opting to use such incendiary language was disturbing because it flies in the face of “contrary, carefully reasoned findings by the two courts who have considered the question the most closely.” “That language, like the report’s broader findings, has left everyone familiar with the situation scratching their heads ― including, unfortunately, some of the victims,” Fernandez said. Fernandez referred to the reaction of Paul Wilson, whose wife, Christy, was one of the eight people killed by Dekraai. “A myth? What a slap in the face to each of these families,” Wilson said to the court. “We have had to suffer through this, and they call it a myth.” The Orange County allegations have prompted the U.S. Department of Justice to launch an investigation.  -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

24 июня, 04:00

Illegal Death Threats And A Deep State Coup D'etat Are Rampant America

America. Truly the district of criminals has completely lost any semblance of protecting our Republic. Town Hall writes "In a bizarre The FBI "Totally baffling. This Associated Press write-up of yesterday's FBI press conference makes clear that everyone involved agrees that deceased shooter James Hodgkinson detested Republicans with a fiery passion, yet investigators seem unwilling to call his attack premeditated or specifically targeted -- nor will they comment on his motive at this point. Help us spread the word about the liberty movement, we're reaching millions help us reach millions more. Share the free live video feed link with your friends & family: http://www.infowars.com/show Follow Alex on TWITTER - https://twitter.com/RealAlexJones Like Alex on FACEBOOK - https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones Infowars on G+ - https://plus.google.com/+infowars/ :Web: http://www.infowars.com/ http://www.prisonplanet.com/ http://www.infowars.net/ :Subscribe and share your login with 20 friends: http://www.prisonplanet.tv http://www.InfowarsNews.com Visit http://www.InfowarsLife.com to get the products Alex Jones and his family trust, while supporting the growth of our expanding media operation. [http://bit.ly/2dhnhbS] Biome Defense™ [http://bit.ly/2bnEj91] Bio-True Selenium™ [http://bit.ly/1WYw8jp] Vitamin Mineral Fusion™ [http://bit.ly/1QYBNBv] Joint Formula™ [http://bit.ly/1nNuR3r] Anthroplex™ [http://bit.ly/1ljfWfJ] Living Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1Iobcj2] Deep Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1DsyQ6i] Knockout™ [http://bit.ly/1Kr1yfz] Brain Force™ [http://bit.ly/1R5gsqk] Liver Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1cOwQix] ProstaGuard™ [http://bit.ly/1mnchEz3] Child Ease™ [http://bit.ly/1xs9F6t] WinterSunD3™ [http://bit.ly/1L3gDSO] Ancient Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1EHbA6E] Secret-12™ [http://bit.ly/1txsOge] Oxy Powder™ [http://bit.ly/1s6cphV] Occu Power™ [http://bit.ly/1rGOLsG] DNA Force™ [http://bit.ly/1nIngBb] X2 Survival Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1kaXxKL] Super Female Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1mhAKCO] Lung Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1mGbikx] Silver-Bullet - Colloidal Silver™ [http://bit.ly/1xcoUfo] Super Male Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1z5BCP9] Survival Shield - Nascent Iodine™ [http://bit.ly/1o4sQtc] Patriot Blend 100% Organic Coffee™ [http://bit.ly/1iVL6HB] Immune Support 100% Organic Coffee™ All available at - http://www.infowarsshop.com/ INFOWARS HEALTH - START GETTING HEALTHY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE - http://www.infowarshealth.com/ Newsletter Sign up / Infowars Underground Insider : http://www.infowars.com/newsletter The Alex Jones Show © copyright, Free Speech Systems .LLC 1995 - 2017 All Rights Reserved. May use for fair use and educational purposes

24 июня, 03:03

Saudi says suicide bomber killed in foiled Mecca plot

Saudi security forces foiled a terror plot targeting the Grand Mosque in the Muslim holy city of Mecca, exchanging gunfire with one of the suspects who blew himself up inside a home Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Interior Ministry said.

24 июня, 02:25

The GOP’s one-man fire brigade

After four special election wins, Republicans are relying on the Congressional Leadership Fund’s Corry Bliss to safeguard the House majority.

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 01:48

Paris agreement's 1.5C target 'only way' to save coral reefs, Unesco says

First global assessment of climate change impact on world heritage-listed reefs says local efforts are ‘no longer sufficient’Greater emissions reductions and delivering on the Paris climate agreement are now “the only opportunity” to save coral reefs the world over from decline, with local responses no longer sufficient, a report by Unesco has found.The first global scientific assessment of the impacts of climate change on the 29 world heritage-listed coral reefs, published on Saturday, found that the frequency, intensity and duration of heat-stress events had worsened with increasing global warming, with massive consequences for the 29 world heritage sites. Continue reading...

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 00:42

Saudi Security Forces Foil Terrorist Attack in Mecca

Saudi Arabian security forces foiled a terrorist attack that was targeting the Grand Mosque in the holy city of Mecca, a Saudi interior ministry spokesman said.

24 июня, 00:41

CNN Draws Sean Spicer Like One Of Your French Girls

CNN brought in a courtroom sketch artist to illustrate Sean Spicer’s camera-free briefing — the press secretary will let the illustrator’s craftsmanship speak for itself. Joe Biden called activist investor Bill Ackman an “asshole,” so you can pretty much expect Carl Icahn to bankroll his 2020 presidential campaign. And Donald Trump can’t stop incriminating himself. We swear, if you gave the guy a Cessna with a skywriting smoke dispenser attached to it, vacationers on the Eastern Shore would soon know that he is trying to obstruct a federal investigation. This is HUFFPOST HILL for Friday, June 23rd, 2017: CNN sent Bill Hennessy, the network's regular Supreme Court sketch artist, to the White House briefing today. https://t.co/c0yvofNinq pic.twitter.com/issRqyl9i8— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) June 23, 2017 DEAN HELLER HAS NOTHING NICE TO SAY ABOUT THE HEALTH CARE BILL - He sounded like he’s been reading HuffPost’s health care coverage, tbh. Jeffrey Young: “Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) on Friday offered a harsh assessment of Senate Republicans’ health care bill and vowed to withhold his support for it unless it is altered significantly…. Speaking at a joint press conference with Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) in Las Vegas, Heller said the Senate bill must protect states, like his, that expanded Medicaid and preserve gains in coverage that resulted from the Affordable Care Act. ‘In this form, I will not support it,’ Heller said. ‘It’s going to be very difficult to get me to a yes. They have a lot of work to do.’″ [HuffPost] PRO-TRUMP GROUP TARGETING HELLER - Matthew Nussbaum: “America First Policies, a group started by some of President Donald Trump’s campaign advisers, is set to launch an advertising blitz against Nevada’s Republican Sen. Dean Heller, who on Friday came out against the Senate’s Obamacare repeal bill without significant changes. Heller is up for re-election in 2018 and is seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans in that cycle. The ad blitz is backed by more than a million dollars, according to a source familiar with the planning, and the digital component is set to launch this weekend. The television and radio component will launch next week. Heller, according to the official, has also indicated privately to the White House that he is unlikely to get to ‘yes’ on the current Senate version of the bill.” [Politico] INSIDE THE OBAMA ADMIN’S ATTEMPTS TO PUNISH RUSSIA - Instead, it turned into a pseudo-apology tour. Greg Miller, Ellen Nakashima and Adam Entous: “Early last August, an envelope with extraordinary handling restrictions arrived at the White House. Sent by courier from the CIA, it carried ‘eyes only’ instructions that its contents be shown to just four people: President Barack Obama and three senior aides…. Obama also approved a previously undisclosed covert measure that authorized planting cyber weapons in Russia’s infrastructure, the digital equivalent of bombs that could be detonated if the United States found itself in an escalating exchange with Moscow. The project, which Obama approved in a covert-action finding, was still in its planning stages when Obama left office. It would be up to President Trump to decide whether to use the capability.” [WaPo]  The health care bill is bad, Part I. “You’ve heard consumers say this about their health insurance policies, particularly in the last few years since Obamacare became law. And if you’ve been paying attention to politics, then you’ve heard Republicans promise to bring those deductibles down…. If the GOP proposal becomes law, then it’s likely out-of-pocket costs for people buying coverage through healthcare.gov or one of the state exchanges would tend to be higher, not lower ― unless these people were able and willing to pay even more in premiums.” [HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn] The health care bill is bad, Part II. “The legislation unveiled Thursday, which Republicans dubbed the Better Care Reconciliation Act, aims to preserve the Affordable Care Act’s popular rule forbidding health insurance companies from rejecting people with pre-existing conditions. But the bill also would repeal that law’s unpopular individual mandate that most Americans obtain health coverage or face tax penalties and would significantly scale back financial assistance that helps make health insurance premiums affordable…. In their attempt to appease public sentiment by keeping a widely liked thing, getting rid of a widely loathed thing and scaling back a poorly understood thing, Senate Republicans may have set up their own system to fail.” [HuffPost’s Jeffrey Young] Like what you read below? Sign up for HUFFPOST HILL and get a cheeky dose of political news every evening! Like HuffPost Hill? Then order Eliot’s book, The Beltway Bible: A Totally Serious A-Z Guide To Our No-Good, Corrupt, Incompetent, Terrible, Depressing, and Sometimes Hilarious Government Does somebody keep forwarding you this newsletter? Get your own copy. It’s free! Sign up here. Send tips/stories/photos/events/fundraisers/job movement/juicy miscellanea to [email protected] Follow us on Twitter - @HuffPostHill DONALD TRUMP IS THE LEBRON JAMES OF SELF-INCRIMINATION - It’s like he has Fifth Amendment Tourette’s. Willa Frej: “President Donald Trump admitted this week that he did not tape his conversations with former FBI Director James Comey despite his earlier tweets suggesting he had. When asked why he did this in an interview that aired Friday, he offered the following perplexing explanation: ′When he found out that there may be tapes out there, whether it’s governmental tapes or anything else, I think his story may have changed,′ Trump said in an interview alongside first lady Melania. ‘I mean, you’ll have to take a look at that, because then he has to tell what actually took place at the events.’ While we didn’t exactly follow his logic, ‘Fox & Friends’ co-host Ainsley Earhardt ate it up. ‘It was a smart way to make sure [Comey] stayed honest in those hearings,’ she said. ‘It wasn’t stupid, I can tell you that,’ he replied, adding, ‘You never know what’s out there but I didn’t tape and I don’t have any tapes.’” [HuffPost] TRUMP NOT SAVING YOUR JERB - Dominique Mosbergen: “President Donald Trump proclaimed while visiting a Boeing plant in South Carolina in February that he was there ‘to celebrate jobs.’ Jobs is one of the primary reasons I’m standing here today as your president and I will never, ever disappoint you” he told the crowd in North Charleston that day. ‘Believe me, I will not disappoint you.’ On Thursday, Boeing confirmed that it would be laying off workers at the very plant where Trump had spoken so reassuringly five months ago. The aerospace company told CNNMoney that about 200 jobs at its facilities in South Carolina would be cut.” [HuffPost] WHAT IS REALITY, ANYWAY? KELLYANNE CONWAY REFLECTS - The White House advisor definitely playing into the commander-in-chief’s strong belief that he is living in a simulation. Sam Levine: “Kellyanne Conway, a top adviser to President Donald Trump, attempted to spin a question about Russian interference in the 2016 election by saying people who questioned whether Trump could win had actually meddled with the campaign. ‘The president has said previously, and he stands by that, particularly as president-elect, that he would be concerned about anyone interfering in our democracy,’ she told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota on Friday. ‘We saw a lot of people interfering with our democracy by saying he couldn’t win here at home.’” [HuffPost] TRUMP A GIFT TO INTELLIGENCE - Not the kind you’re thinking about, though. Nada Bakos: ”Trump’s Twitter feed is a gold mine for every foreign intelligence agency. Usually, intelligence officers’ efforts to collect information on world leaders are methodical, painstaking and often covert. CIA operatives have risked their lives to learn about foreign leaders so the United States could devise strategies to counter our adversaries. With Trump, though, secret operations are not necessary to understand what’s on his mind: The president’s unfiltered thoughts are available night and day, broadcast to his 32.7 million Twitter followers immediately and without much obvious mediation by diplomats, strategists or handlers.” [WaPo] JUDGES FINES KOBACH - Sam Levine: “A federal magistrate judge fined Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) $1,000 on Friday for misrepresenting the content of documents he was photographed holding while meeting with President Donald Trump, but will allow Kobach to continue to shield the documents from the public. The ruling came in connection with a lawsuit by the American Civil Liberties Union over a Kansas law requiring people to prove their citizenship when they register to vote. As part of the lawsuit, the ACLU sought documents Kobach was photographed holding when he met with Trump in November that contained proposed changes to the 1993 National Voter Registration Act. Kobach argued the documents were not relevant to the lawsuit, but the ACLU argued they were because Kobach’s proposal of amendments to federal voter registration law signaled he did not have the authority to implement a proof of citizenship requirement.” [HuffPost] BILL ACKMAN’S BAD BET ON VERBAL-STRIFE - Bill Ackman is definitely the guy who responds to “a-dollar-a-day” charity infomercials by wondering why the children don’t just invest in a solid emerging market fund. Charlie Gasparino and Brian Schwartz: “Some say former Vice President Joe Biden is too old to run for president in 2020, but he still knows how to throw a verbal punch — just ask financier Bill Ackman…. [D]uring a private VIP dinner...the question of why Biden didn’t run for president in 2016 was raised once again…. Biden explained that part of the decision stemmed from the death of his son Beau Biden, who died of brain cancer in 2015. The room grew quiet as Biden became emotional, and said: ‘I’m sorry…I’ve said enough.’ That’s when Ackman blurted out ‘Why? That’s never stopped you before.’ The formal, and understated dinner conversation suddenly turned tense, according three people who were present and confirmed both the substance and the wording of Biden’s responses. Biden, these people say, turned to someone seated near him, and asked, ‘who is this asshole?,’ a reference to Ackman.” [Fox Business] Joe Scarborough has a new music video. Please don’t ask us why. BECAUSE YOU’VE READ THIS FAR - Here’s a gorilla splashing about in a tub of water. COMFORT FOOD - A trip inside a World War Two B-17 Flying Fortress. - The richest person in each state. - Acquaint yourself with Justin Trudeau’s socks. TWITTERAMA People who complain about Texas summers, DC right now is like being inside of sweaty wool sock. With worse air conditioning.— Emily Ramshaw (@eramshaw) June 23, 2017 If Jon Ossoff had rented a condo in Sandy Springs six months ago, would we be reading “Dem comeback begins” stories this week?— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) June 23, 2017 *shoves through two enormous double doors and runs into the room panting heavily* more like WEALTHCARE bill— Alexandra Petri (@petridishes) June 22, 2017 Got something to add? Send tips/quotes/stories/photos/events/fundraisers/job movement/juicy miscellanea to Eliot Nelson ([email protected]) -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

24 июня, 00:31

As Ramadan Draws To An End, Mosques Worry About Security

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); The last few days of the holy month of Ramadan are supposed to be a joyous time of the year for American Muslims. Spiritually, it’s believed to be a time when God blesses and forgives. The holiday that marks the end of Ramadan, Eid al-Fitr, is observed with prayers, food, gifts, and community bonding. But this year, as Muslims await the beginning of Eid on Sunday or Monday, some are also full of anxiety about safety. Mosques hold special prayers and other activities during the final days of Ramadan, and attendance at worship centers swells, making mosque leaders especially concerned about security. Against a backdrop of increased anti-Muslim hate crimes and rhetoric, sometimes simply going to a mosque to pray can be an act of courage.  American mosques have been targets for vandalism and other criminal acts for more than a decade. Many have responded by installing elaborate security systems with cameras and alarms in their worship spaces, and training members to watch for suspicious behavior.  But over the past year, there’s been a dramatic uptick in anti-Muslim hate crime and rhetoric. The Council on American-Islamic Relations, an advocacy organization, recorded a 57-percent rise in anti-Muslim bias incidents in 2016 from the year before. This included acts of vandalism and arson against mosques.  Since Ramadan began on May 26, CAIR has recorded eight possible attacks on mosques. Zainab Arain, coordinator of CAIR’s department to monitor and combat Islamophobia, told HuffPost that the frequency of the anti-mosque incidents during Ramadan seemed comparable with the rest of the year.  But recent incidents ― including an attack on a mosque in north London and the baseball-bat killing of Muslim teenager Nabra Hassanen in Virginia ― have made some community leaders especially apprehensive about the coming days.   On Monday, CAIR called on Muslim communities to take extra security measures for the end o Ramadan and for Eid ― including requesting extra police patrols and hiring private security officers authorized to carry firearms.  “Because of the recent spike in hate incidents ― particularly those targeting American Muslim women and girls ― and because Islamic religious institutions have been targeted recently in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom, we urge local communities to implement increased security measures during end-of-Ramadan activities and through the Eid ul-Fitr holiday that follows,” Nihad Awad, CAIR’s national executive director, said in a statement. The Noor Islamic Cultural Center is a large complex in Dublin, Ohio, that serves a diverse community of Muslims in the central part of the state. Imran Malik, the center’s outreach director and president, told HuffPost the center began receiving threatening phone calls and hate mail about three years ago. Mosque leaders have worked hard since then to put safety measures into place, upgrading cameras and alarms, and hiring private armed and unarmed security guards during big events.  Security concerns become even more important during the last few days of Ramadan, when Malik estimated as many as 3,000 people attend services at the mosque daily. During the holy month, security costs reach $600 per night, he said. But during the last 10 nights of the month, costs soar to about $1,000 per night, he said.  Malik said the center spends up to $70,000 per year on security. The added cost has “taken a significant toll on our finances,” Malik said. But mosque leaders want to make sure everyone coming to the center feels safe. “Luckily, so far we haven’t run into any issues,” Malik said. “But we don’t want to stay at ease and then have something bad happen. We always want to be proactive.” Mosque leaders in other parts of the country also prioritize security during Ramadan.   Imam Talib M. Shareef, of The Nation’s Mosque, Masjid Muhammad, in Washington, D.C., said he’s asked local police to be at the mosque during Eid, in addition to a volunteer community-based security team.  Kalim Ahmed, a board member at the Islamic Society of Western Maryland, told HuffPost the attacks in Virginia and London have “escalated” Muslims’ fears about safety, both individually and when they come together.  Ahmed said his mosque has installed security cameras, an alarm system, and a large metal entrance gate. Leaders have asked law enforcement to patrol the area, and have recruited community volunteers to stay on the lookout for suspicious activity.  Saleh M. Sbenaty, a spokesman for the Islamic Center Of Murfreesboro in Tennessee, said the 35-year-old religious congregation began having security troubles after purchasing land for a permanent mosque.  Sbenaty said the mosque, which was completed in 2012, has already installed a video system and door-entry security. During Ramadan, leaders usually take extra security measures, including limiting points of entry, hiring a private security guard, and giving volunteers the task of being vigilant during services.  Sbenaty said that tragic events like the Virginia slaying and the attack on the London mosque put his community “on edge, especially because we live on the outskirt of a small city in Middle Tennessee. “Our center has endured seven years of harassments, bomb threats, arson, threats and so on and so forth,” Sbenaty said.  The Islamic Center of Nashville has taken efforts this year to maintain its close relationship with local law enforcement. Rashed Fakhruddin, the center’s president, told HuffPost that new police cadets visited the center earlier this Ramadan during a bus tour to learn about the city’s diversity.  The center has requested extra patrols during this year’s Ramadan and Eid, Fakhruddin said. Despite the security concerns of American Muslims, President Donald Trump hasn’t addressed the issue.  Some Muslim leaders hope the president speaks against attacks on American mosques in the same way that he condemned a string of phone threats against Jewish community centers nationwide earlier this year. (A suspect was charged with making those threats.) Malik, the leader from Ohio, said that he believes America’s elected leaders are responsible for safeguarding the rights and safety of Muslim Americans and other minorities. “The Muslim community overall, throughout the nation, would appreciate such a [condemnation] from the president,” Malik said. It would be a sign that “the president is concerned about the security of not only one ethnicity, but everyone who has chosen America as their home.” But others, like Sbenaty, believe such talk wouldn’t be enough. What American Muslims need are actions that will correct Islamophobic rhetoric and stop alienating religious minorities, he said. “Words will not be adequate, enough damage has been already done,” Sbenaty said. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

Выбор редакции
24 июня, 00:04

As U.S. Kills ISIS Leaders, a Notorious One Remains Elusive

American officials say they have no concrete evidence on whether the most well-known Islamic State leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the target of a long manhunt, is alive or dead.

23 июня, 23:33

5 ETF Investing Mistakes You Must Avoid

Here is what investors need to know before they start investing in ETFs

23 июня, 23:16

Pro-Trump group to target GOP Sen. Heller over health care bill

America First Policies, a group started by some of President Donald Trump’s campaign advisers, is set to launch an advertising blitz against Nevada's Republican Sen. Dean Heller, who on Friday came out against the Senate's Obamacare repeal bill without significant changes.Heller is up for re-election in 2018 and is seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Republicans in that cycle.The ad blitz is backed by more than a million dollars, according to a source familiar with the planning, and the digital component is set to launch this weekend. The television and radio component will launch next week. Heller, according to the official, has also indicated privately to the White House that he is unlikely to get to “yes” on the current Senate version of the bill.For America First Policies, the ad blitz is an opportunity to show that groups aligned with Trump’s base are ready to go to bat for the president."You do not want to mess with Donald Trump’s base in a primary, particularly in a place like Nevada,” said the source. “This kind of money in Nevada is real. … This is a beginning.”The ad campaign will paint Heller as a “typical politician,” the source said, and will characterize him as standing with Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi against the White House.Heller is one of a group of GOP senators that has voiced wariness about the GOP repeal bill. But, according to the official familiar with the ad planning, other senators have shown more willingness to move to yes than Heller has.America First Policies is led by a group of Trump loyalists including Brian Walsh, former White House official Katie Walsh (no relation to Brian), Brad Parscale and Pence allies Nick Ayers and Marty Obst.

Выбор редакции
23 июня, 23:13

IRS Issues Warning On New Scam Targeting Tax Professionals

Scammers clearly aren't taking a break this summer. The IRS, state tax agencies and the tax industry, as part of the Security Summit, is warning tax professionals to beware of phishing emails claiming to be from a tax software education provider and seeking sensitive preparer data.

23 июня, 22:57

2-Step Method for Whipping the Bull

Earnings momentum plus solid chart analysis can deliver calculated profits while others simply chase their tails.

23 июня, 22:25

Walmart может перебить цену Amazon за Whole Foods

У Amazon может появиться серьезный конкурент в борьбе за бизнес Whole Foods. По информации JPMorgan, американская корпорация Walmart может приобрести сеть супермаркетов за более высокую цену, чем предложил интернет-ретейлер.

02 апреля 2015, 21:40

Нефтегаз США в картинках

Сколько нефти и газа обеспечивает ГРП

25 марта 2014, 00:29

ФРС: рано делать выводы по ставкам

На прошлой неделе прошло заседание по ставкам ФРС и первая пресс-конференция Дж.Йеллен, итоги заседания достаточно интересны с точки зрения риторики ФРС, хотя я бы не стал преувеличивать сказанное. ФРС стала немного осторожнее с прогнозами экономического роста, но крайне оптимистична опо показателю безработицы, по инфляции без особых изменений. Покупки ожидаемо соращаются до $55 млрд в месяц и будут сокращаться далее. Сам стейтмент был очень серьёзно переписан. ФРС отказалась от целевого уровня безработицы (6.5%), мало того, она убрала и ориентир инфляции (ранее ФРС указывала на то, что ставки останутся низкими пока прогнозы по инфляции в разрезе 1-2 лет будут оставаться ниже 2.5%). Вместо этого, для принятия решений по ставкам, ФРС будет использовать широкий спектр показателей, тем самым монетарные власти полностью развязали себе руки и убрали какие-то жесткие целевые ориентиры. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additionalremains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well pastfor a considerable time after the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percentasset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. , and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.  When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.  With the unemployment rate nearing 6-1/2 percent, the Committee has updated its forward guidance. The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements.  Я уже писал, ФРС окончательно решила сворачивать программу QE3 и вряд ли сойдет с этого пути, последнее заседание это только подверило. Более интересен, конечно, вопрос ставок, где первая пресс-конференция Дж.Йеллен наделала много шума. Все дружно напряглись когда она заявила о 6 месяцах после сворачивания QE3, на самом деле она обставила эту цифру таким количеством "если", да и сама фраза относилась скорее к отсраненному "considerable period" (длительный период), который уже не один год ассоциируется с ~полугодом ANN SAPHIR. To be clear. I just wanted to be clear about that. Then once you do wind down the bond buying program, could you tell us how long of a gap we might expect before the rate hikes do begin? CHAIR YELLEN. So, the language that we use in the statement is “considerable period.” So, I, you know, this is the kind of term it's hard to define. But, you know, probably means something on the order of around six months or that type of thing. But, you know, it depends what the statement is saying as it depends what conditions you like. We need to see where the labor market is, how close are we to our full employment goal -- that will be a complicated assessment not just based on a single statistic -- and how rapidly as we moving toward it. Are we really close and moving fast? Or are we getting closer but moving very slowly? And then, what the statement emphasizes and this is the same language we used in December and January, we used the language especially if inflation is running below our 2 percent objective. Inflation matters here, too, and our general principle tries to capture that notion. If we have a substantial short fall in inflation, if inflation is persistently running below our 2 percent objective, that is a very good reason to hold the funds rate at its present range for longer. В целом ФРС развязала себе руки да и только, а паника относительно 6 месяцев (т.е. повышения ставок уже весной-летом 2015 года) скорее результат не совсем осторожныхв ысказываний самой Йеллен (оно и понятно, первая пресс-конференция все же в этой роли) и казуистики рыночных аналитиков. Что является фактом - так это то, что ФРС убрала какие-либо жесткие гориентиры (в общем-то соблюдать она их и не собиралась) и планирует свернуть QE3 пактически безвариантно. Что ещё важно - ФРС в общем-то подтверждает, что основным ориентиром для ставок будет инфляция (о разделении инфляция=ставки, безработица=QE писал ранее). Что ещё интересно - это фраза Дж.Йеллен о том, что смотреть на ставки ФРС планирует где-то через полгодика ("We would be looking at next, next fall. So, I think that's important guidance."). Все обсуждения вопроса ставок до осени будут носить скорее формат "личного мнения". Рынок после заседания ФРС несколько пересмотрел свои ожидания по ставкам ФРС, если раньше фьючерсы показывали ожидания повышения ставки в октябре-ноябре 2015 года, то сейчас это июль-август 2015 года, ИМХО ожидания более раннего повышения (при сохранении текущих тенденций) могут не оправдаться, т.к. ситуация в экономике США несколько хуже того, что запланировали в ФРС (особенно на рынке жилья). В свете сворачивания QE3 крайне интересной остается ситуация с притоком капитала в США, вернее его оттоком ... По данным января приток капитала в долгосрочные активы США (акции и облигации) составил смешные $7.3 млрд, причем все статьи показали отток, едиственное, что вытянуло показатель - это вывод американских капиталов из иностранных облигаций сразу на $33.5 млрд за месяц. В сумме за последние 12 месяцев отток капитала из долгосрочных активов США составил рекордные $157.5 млрд, обусловлено это отсуттствующим интересом иностранцев к корпорптивному сектору США, резким сокращением спроса иностранцев на госбумаги и бумаги госагентсв на фоне достаточно большого объема инвестиций самих американцев в иностранные ценные бумаги. График ниже, на нем все видно.  Что мы имеем в итоге: чистые внешние доходы экономики США отрицательны - дефицит текущего счета, хотя и активно скоращается в послледние годы, но все ещё состаляет около $380 млрд в год, ранее этот дефицит абсорбировался благодаря продажам американских акций и облигаций иностранцам, но сейчас здесь тоже отток капитала. Прямые инвестиции в США тоже дают отрицательные цифры, читый отток капитала по прямым инвестициям $160-170 млрд в год. В этих условиях, что балансирует все эти депозиты остаеются обязательства американских банков перед нерезидентами, чистые долларовые обязательтва банков США перед нерезидентами за последний год выросли на $541 млрд и сейчас составляют $1.03 трлн. Что такое чситые долларовые обязательства - это, по сути и есть безналичные доллары.  Если говорить совсем простым и понятным языком - то основным экспортным товаром США в последние годы стал доллар, эмиссию которого (через выкуп ценных бумаг) проводила ФРС, эти доллары идут на покупку товаров и акивов вне США. Принципиальная разница с тем, что было до сих пор в том - эти доллары не абсорбируются через продажу американских ценных бумаг иностранцам. Казалось бы, в такой ситуации, доллара за пределами США становится существенно больше и он бы должен прилично снизиться, но этого не происходит (хотя частично это присутствует особенно относительно европейских валют, где доллар за последний год понес определенные потери). Это может объясняться тем, что спрос на доллар остается очень и очень приличным и обусловлено это достаточно активным использованием оного вне США, только развивающиеся страны выпустили новых облигаций на внешних рынках в прошлом году на ~$400 млрд и большая часть этой эмиссии бондов в долларах. Это существенно повышает спрос на доллар вне США для осуществления таких операций (в том числе запасов ликвидности для обслуживания этих долгов) и обслуживания выпущенных долгов. Отчасти такая ситуация складывается и по причине прекращения активного накопления резервов развивающимися странами. Ситуация сложилась крайне интересная, с одной стороны долларов много, с другой многие предпочитают поддерживать повышенные уровни долларовой ликвидности, но именно ликидности, не пристраивая доллары обратно в американские активы, хотя и  пристраивая их долларовые активы вне США и накапливая долларовы "кэш". В условиях того, что программа выкупа облигаций (QE3) сворачивается приток свободной ликвидности в систему сокращается и это будет оказывать негативное влияние на соответствующие активы (в которые эта ликвидность с запуском QE полилась). Если верить данным ФРС - то через инвестфонды это: корпоративные и иностранные облигации (+$415 млрд с сентября 2012 года по декабрь 2013 года), американские акции (+$357 млрд с сентября 2012 года по декабрь 2013 года). На первом этапе урезание коснулось в основном больше пострадали иностранные активы, что обусловлено ожиданиями ускорения роста США на фоне ожиданий замедения развивающихся стран. Но уже сейчас рынок акций США активно притормаживает и явно перегрет, рынок корпорптивных бондов США смотрится очень неплохо - доходности низкие, но объемы размещения пошли на спад (январь-февраль 2014 года объем упал на 12% относительно января-февраля 2013 года, причем по Jank-ам падение сразу на 28.5%). По мере сворачивания стимулов от ФРС, особенно, если восстановление экономики не оправдает прогнозов (судя по рынку жилья именно так и просходит) ... США как-то нужно вернуть себе приток капитала, иначе коррекция может получиться жесткой  :) 

10 января 2013, 01:42

Почему Японская экономика перестала расти? (часть 1)

Наконец добрались и до Японии. Перед тем как начать обсуждение монетарной политики Банка Японии, необходимо подробно рассмотреть экономическую составляющую, ведь повсеместная рецессия и дефляция , наблюдаемые в последние десятилетия, и являются ключевыми ориентирами в понимании действий центробанка.Краткость - сестра таланта. Но это ко мне не относится :) Обзор будет состоять из нескольких больших частей. Терпите, извиняйте.ВведениеЯпонская экономика стагнирует уже два десятилетия. Цель данного обзора заключается в объяснении причин стагнации и поиске решений для выхода из этой ситуации. При этом внимание умышленно сфокусировано на долгосрочных тенденциях, а не на краткосрочных изменениях, вызванных сокращением японской экономики по причине глобального финансового кризиса 2008 г.В начале анализа с использованием неоклассической модели роста будет дано объяснение экономического подъема Японии в послевоенный период. Вплоть до 1970-х экономика  страны росла очень высокими темпами. Однако в течение 1970-х важнейшие факторы, поддерживавшие высокий темп экономического расширения, начали исчезать.Во-первых, Япония достигла уровня развитых стран, таких как США. Таким образом, экономика не могла далее расти благодаря замещению или импорту новых технологий из развитых стран. Экономическая практика, методы и институты, хорошо работавшие в период “японского чуда” и гонки за развитыми странами, уже не подходили для зрелой японской экономики.Во-вторых, финансовая глобализация и коллапс режима фиксированных валютных курсов привели к тому, что в конце 1970-х Япония больше не могла полагаться на свою недооцененную валюту для расширения экспортных возможностей. Япония была вынуждена перестроить свою производственную систему и другие экономические институты, чтобы идти в ногу с глобализацией и сокращать свою зависимость от внешнего спроса.В-третьих, структура японского населения изменилась в пользу преобладания людей старшей возрастной группы. Старение означало замедление темпов прироста рабочей силы. Старение вкупе с падением рождаемости в конечном итоге привело к сокращению уровня национальных сбережений, которые поддерживали послевоенное экономическое расширение Японии.Япония не смогла успешно противостоять новым вызовам. Более того, в течение 1990-х появились новые проблемы. Частные инвестиции сократились, уровень производительности упал. В течение одной декады Япония из быстрорастущей экономики превратилась в стагнирующую. Далее ситуацию усугубили ряд ошибок в проводимой экономической политике, которые превратили стагнацию в паралич.К примеру, нежелание регулятора решать проблемы банковской системы в 1990-е привели к тому, что зомби-банки продолжали кредитовать зомби-фирмы, а это сильно ударило по темпам экономического роста через подавление шумпетеровского процесса “созидательного разрушения” (Кабаллеро, Хоши и Кашьяпа, 2008). Ошибки в монетарной политике породили длительную дефляцию. Фискальная политика, направившая деньги на реализацию неэффективных государственных программ и раздувшая государственный долг до невиданных масштабов, сегодня требует срочного, но при этом крайне аккуратного регулирования и реформирования.  Под влиянием этих факторов, в конце 1990-х Япония впала в глубочайшую депрессию, которая отличалась от предыдущих “нормальных” рецессий. К середине 2000-х экономика, казалось, начала набирать обороты благодаря реформам правительства Коидзуми, однако глобальный финансовый кризис 2008 г. вновь отправил Японию в рецессию и дефляцию. Далее, сменяющиеся одни за другими составы правительства предлагали различные методы для восстановления экономического роста, в основном посредством фискальных стимулов, но, в целом, все они оказались неэффективными…Одной из важнейших причин того, почему Япония не смогла успешно противостоять новым вызовам, является тот факт, что по большому счету установившийся во время “японского экономического чуда” статус-кво жителей страны вполне удовлетворял. Благодаря бурному послевоенному экономическому восстановлению, Япония стала богатой страной с одним из самых высоких уровней ВВП на душу населения. Поэтому, за исключением нескольких глубоких кризисов, в стране не ощущалось серьезного внутреннего давления, которое могло бы заставить власти серьезно заниматься решением структурных проблем. Но без ясного понимания того, к чему Япония стремится и чего хочет достичь в будущем, очень сложно оценить то, что она может потерять.Окончание эры быстрого экономического ростаВ течение многих лет экономика Японии росла очень быстрыми темпами. С середины 1950-х по середину 1970-х средние темпы роста реального ВВП Японии держались на уровне 10% в год, однако затем началось замедление (см. график 1).На графике четко отмечено первое серьезное замедление экономики в середине 1970-х и затем второе, более отчетливое, в течение 1990-х. Хотя рост, казалось, возобновился к середине прошлого десятилетия, японская экономика перестала расти снова после глобального финансового кризиса 2008-09 гг. Долгосрочные растущие паттерны обычно описываются так называемой неоклассической моделью роста, которая в упрощенном варианте выражается следующей формулой:Y=AF(K,L) nbsp;        (1)Где Y – объем выпускаемой продукции; F (...) – функция, определяющая зависимость объема выпуска продукции от значений затрат факторов производства; А – переменная, зависящая от эффективности производственных технологий и характеризующая технологический прогресс; L – количество труда; K – количество физического капитала. Согласно данной модели, технологический прогресс повышает выпуск продукции, делая труд и капитал более производительными.Это уравнение является ключевым для расчета темпов развития технологического прогресса. Оно выявляет и позволяет соизмерять три источника роста: изменение в количестве капитала, в количестве труда и в величине совокупной производительности факторов (Total factor productivity, TFP).Поскольку совокупную производительность факторов нельзя выделить непосредственно, её измеряют косвенным образом. Мы имеем данные о росте объёма производства и затрат (капитала и труда); мы также имеем данные о доле капитала в произведённой продукции. Исходя из этих параметров и уравнения для темпа прироста объёма производства, можно вычислить вклад прироста совокупной производительности факторов в экономический рост:%∆Y=%∆A+α%∆K+(1-α)%∆L nbsp;      (2)(темп прироста объема производства = вклад прироста совокупной производительности факторов + вклад капитала + вклад труда),где %∆A - это часть темпа прироста выпуска, которая не может быть объяснена изменением затрат факторов.Используя формулу (2), можно показать изменение объема производства на единицу труда (Y/L, производительность труда) через изменение капиталовооруженности (K/L) уровня технологического прогресса:%∆(Y/L)=%∆A+α%∆(K/L) nbsp;        (3)Если объем используемого капитала на одного рабочего возрастает, то растет также, но в меньшей степени, продукт на одного рабочего (предельная производительность труда).Это наблюдение подразумевает, что изначально бедные страны могут расти очень быстрыми темпами, имея высокие темпы прироста капитала, но, что более важно для нас, рост может регулироваться уровнем технологического прогресса. Исторически, технологический прогресс среди богатых стран был относительно одинаковым, а это означает, что страны имеют тенденцию сближения к единому уровню технологического прогресса. Отчасти это объясняет замедление Японии при переходе от состояния бедной экономики (через  подтягивание к уровню развитых стран посредством аллокации больших инвестиций) в состояние богатой экономики, чей рост ограничен увеличением производительности.Более наглядно это можно увидеть на графике 2, показывающем изменение динамики ВВП на душу населения для стран G7 с 1970 по 2011 гг.На графике 3 показана динамика изменения темпа роста экономики по отношению к уровню благосостояния населения. Динамика тренда ВВП рассчитана с помощью стандартного статистического метода, предложенного Ходриком и Прескоттом (1997). График 3 позволяет сравнивать динамику изменения темпов роста экономики при каждом конкретном значении ВВП на душу населения.График показывает, что большинство стран сталкиваются с замедлением экономического роста, когда уровень реального ВВП на душу населения изменяется от $15 тыс. до $22 тыс. В сравнении с другими странами G7, Япония сохранила высокий темп роста экономики, даже когда уровень ВВП на душу населения  преодолел отметку в $20 тыс., однако затем (при достижении $30 тыс.) темпы роста начали резко замедляться.На графике видно, что страны не всегда показывают одинаковые темпы роста. Когда годовой доход на одного человека достигает $25 тыс., мы наблюдаем, что страны делятся на три большие группы. Первая включает США, Великобританию и Канаду, показывающих стабильный прирост около 1,7% в год. Вторая группа включает Германию и Японию со среднегодовыми темпами в 1,0%. Третью группу представляет Италия с нулевым приростом экономики по достижении указанного рубежа ВВП на душу населения Разница на самом деле очень важна. Когда доход на душу населения растет на 1,7% в год, он удваивается через 41 год. Когда темпы роста составляют 1% в год, удвоение произойдет лишь через 69 лет.Старение населения и экономический ростФактором, объясняющим ускоренное падение темпов экономического роста по отношению к другим развитым странам, является старение населения.На следующем графике показана доля пожилого населения (65 лет и выше) к общему населению стран G7. Япония имела достаточно молодое население в период 1960-х и 1970-х, однако затем доля пожилого населения начала стремительно расти. Согласно прогнозам, к 2022 г. 30% населения Японии будет старше 65 лет, что почти в два раза больше, чем в США.Неоклассическая модель роста предполагает, что долгосрочные темпы роста ВВП на душу населения сокращаются, когда процесс старения ускоряется.Надо отметить, что в формуле (3) мы соотнесли все величины с количеством работников и вклад труда (часы) скорректированы по уровню квалификации работников. Обозначив за N общее население страны, равенство (3) можно записать в следующем виде:%∆((Y/L)*(L/N))=%∆A+α%∆(K/L)+%∆(L/N) (4)Такая формулировка подчеркивает тот факт, что старение вынуждает работников уходить на пенсию или сокращать число рабочих часов, при этом рост выпуска на душу населения сокращается, так как последняя переменная в уравнении становится отрицательной.Вдобавок к эффекту от сокращения уровня экономической активности и рабочих часов, уровень квалификации рабочей силы по понятным причинам также страдает от процесса старения населения. Соммер (2009) показал, что пики по уровню заработной платы в Японии приходятся на работников в возрасте 40 лет. Он также отметил, что в отличие от США, после преодоления этой возрастной границы доходы сокращаются достаточно быстрыми темпами так, что ближе к 50-ти годам доходы японских работников примерно на 30% ниже от своих максимальных значений.Япония и ориентация на экспортНеоклассическая модель роста предполагает, что пока продукция производится эффективно, на нее всегда найдется покупатель, поэтому при формировании ожиданий долгосрочного экономического роста можно абстрагироваться от спроса. Но, если спрос стагнирует, расширяющийся под влиянием технологического прогресса производственный потенциал страны будет использован неэффективно. Проблемы со стороны спроса в Японии существуют более 15 лет. Одним из явных признаков этого – дефляция, которая не отпускает экономику с середины 1990-х. С учетом депрессивного внутреннего спроса, страна вынуждена полагаться на экспорт.Среди стран G7 Япония имеет наибольшую зависимость от внешнего спроса. Это выглядит удивительным, так как объем экспорта к ВВП Японии относительно мал.Высокая зависимость от внешнего спроса является наследством периода высокого экономического роста. Под влиянием Бреттон-вудской валютной системы Япония выигрывала от фиксированного валютного курса и недооцененной иены, что делало экспорт из страны исключительно конкурентоспособным. Комбинация молодой, высококвалифицированной рабочей силы вкупе со стабильной, недооцененной валютой поспособствовала высоким темпам роста экономики. Коллапс Бреттон-вудского режима в начале 1970-х положил конец данной стратегии.Как отмечал Раджан (2010, Глава 2), стратегия экспортно-ориентированного роста, поддерживаемая тесными взаимосвязями между государством, банками, и промышленными компаниями, является хорошим решением для бедных стран в их желании стать богатыми. Япония и другие азиатские страны, в том числе и Китай, успешно использовали подобную стратегию роста. Когда развивающаяся страна составляет достаточно малую часть мировой экономики, она может продолжать расти за счет внешнего спроса. Однако когда экономика становится крупной, поддерживать высокую зависимость от внешнего спроса становится чрезвычайно трудно.Другой проблемой экспортно-ориентированной экономики является отсутствие рыночных сил в процессе аллокации ресурсов. Раджан (2010) отмечает, что защита отечественных фирм против рыночных механизмов имеет смысл на стадии “гонки” за развитыми экономиками, когда страна может расти во многом благодаря импорту новых технологий и аккумуляции капитала. Когда экономика становится зрелой, однако, правильно функционирующий рынок самостоятельно отделяет неэффективное производство от эффективного.Проблема экспортно-ориентированной стратегии заключается в подавлении рыночных механизмов, что обычно создает острые проблемы для непроизводственного сектора, в частности сектора услуг, где нет заградительных барьеров от международной конкуренции.Для Японии только лишь ориентация на экспорт недостаточна для возобновления подъема национальной экономики (Китай, возможно, столкнется с данной проблемой в ближайшем будущем). Япония должна положиться на свой динамичный внутренний рынок, и далее мы рассмотрим некоторые проблемы национального рынка, которые послужили катализатором торможения экономики.Продолжение следует...за основу обзора взят доклад Такео Хоши и Анила Кашияпа "Почему Япония перестала расти?" от 21 января 2011 г.