Одна из крупнейших компаний на рынке сотовой связи в США AT&T предоставляет властям страны доступ к своей базе записей телефонных разговоров за отдельную плату без распоряжения суда, пишет Daily Beast. «AT&T выполняет работу Агентства национальной безопасности (АНБ) для правоохранительных органов, не требуя при этом судебного ордера, но получая за свою помощь ежегодно миллионы долларов из карманов налогоплательщиков», - передает ТАСС текст статьи. Власти сотрудничают с компанией в рамках секретной программы «Полушарие» (The Hemisphere), целью которой изначально была борьба с наркоторговлей на территории США. Но затем возможности программы расширились, американские структуры получили доступ к телефонным базам в рамках расследований других преступлений: «от убийств до махинаций с медицинскими страховками». В статье подчеркивается, что, согласно американскому законодательству, заниматься прослушкой и сбором такого рода информации разведывательные структуры могут только лишь по решению суда. Власти США получили доступ к «триллионам записей разговоров, осуществленных через мобильный интернет». С помощью таких данных можно, в частности, установить местоположение абонента, отмечает издание. «Полушарие» не является партнерской программой, это, скорее всего, продукт, который разработала и продает AT&T за миллионы долларов в год, выплачиваемых налогоплательщиками, - подчеркивает издание. - Для доступа к крупнейшим телефонным базам не требуется судебный ордер. В соответствии с документами компании правоохранительные органы должны лишь дать обещание, что если расследование станет достоянием общественности, то какая-либо информация о «Полушарии» не будет обнародована». По данным издания, программа была запущена в 2003 году, когда AT&T начала сотрудничать с АНБ. В рамках «Полушария» по всей стране действуют около 28 центров, в которых работают как сотрудники федеральных служб и местных правоохранительных органов, так и самой компании. Однако, как подчеркивает издание, анализом и обработкой данных занимаются только специалисты AT&T «по заказу» госструктур. «Так что правоохранительные органы не имеют прямого доступа к самой базе», - поясняет издание. Отмечается, что AT&T «хотела сохранить в секрете» эту программу, особенно в преддверии приобретения конгломерата Time Warner, в состав которого входят телекомпания CNN, телеканалы TNT, TBS, HBO, а также различные кино- и телестудии. Основанная в 1983 году AT&T является самой крупной компанией, оказывающей услуги местной и международной телефонной связи в США. Это также один из крупнейших американских сотовых операторов и интернет-провайдеров. Число клиентов компании со штаб-квартирой в Далласе (штат Техас) - более 150 млн человек. Напомним, в июне 2013 года экс-сотрудник американских спецслужб Эдвард Сноуден передал газетам Washington Post и Guardian ряд секретных материалов о программах слежки спецслужб США и Великобритании в интернете. Россия предоставила Сноудену временное убежище сроком на год при условии, что он прекратит свою деятельность против США.
As AT&T and Time Warner prepare to make their pitch to lawmakers and regulators, both companies will be leaning on lobbyists to convince congressional leaders of the deal's value to the industry and the public.
Chipotle (CMG) is set to report after the bell today and, given the tough time it has had recuperating from an E.coli outbreak a year ago, the burrito maker’s earnings are likely to be of high interest to investors. Yet, it’s the post-release conference call at AT&T that may generate [...]
* Sprint Corp CEO Marcelo Claure on AT&T-Time Warner deal says its a bold move by AT&T- CNBC
Hilsenrath: Fed’s Task Ahead: How Best to Signal Year-End Rate Move (WSJ) Fed Inclined to Raise Rates If Next President Pumps Up Budget (BBG) World stocks, commodities climb as economic confidence lifts (Reuters) Ahead of earnings: Apple Boosted by IPhone 7 Demand, Slowing Pace of Sales Decline (BBG) Campaigns Brace for Election-Day Legal Battles (WSJ) Philippines Duterte tells U.S. to forget about defense deal 'if I stay longer' (Reuters) China’s Aggressive New Deal Makers: $199 Billion This Year and Counting (WSJ) Inside Trump Tower, the Skyscraper Where Trump Is Already King (BBG) On the ballot: two clashing visions of how America will powers its cars, homes (Reuters) Sunni Arabs forced to leave Kirkuk after Islamic State attack, residents say (Reuters) Xiaomi Goes Upmarket With New Devices to Arrest Sales Slide (BBG) Credit-Card Scammers Flock to Online Shopping (WSJ) Ratings Inflation Is Back, Subprime Style (BBG) Islamic State claims attack on Pakistan police academy, 59 dead (Reuters) Four killed on river ride at Australia's biggest theme park (Reuters) DuPont Raises Profit Forecast as Margins Widen Before Dow Merger (BBG) 'Siri, catch market cheats': Wall Street watchdogs turn to A.I. (Reuters) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - AT&T Inc's $85.4 billion deal to buy Time Warner Inc sails toward two cresting waves of opposition: resurgent antitrust enforcement in Washington and politicians fired by a new bipartisan populist rage. on.wsj.com/2f26v6h - Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella is pushing the company to shed its not-invented-here approach and learn where it can improve. on.wsj.com/2eG9XQL - TD Ameritrade agreed to acquire Scottrade Financial Services for $4 billion in a deal that merges two online discount brokerages facing pressures from declining trading volumes and shifts in technology. on.wsj.com/2f8xE6L - Federal Reserve officials, wary of raising short-term interest rates amid the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election, are likely to stand pat at their November policy meeting and remain focused on lifting them in December. on.wsj.com/2eE5qz0 - Former Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane was sentenced Monday to 10 to 23 months in prison, in a rebuke for the state's former top prosecutor following her recent conviction for engaging in a political payback scheme. on.wsj.com/2dETlGm - Genworth Financial Inc's proposed buyout by a Chinese conglomerate drew skepticism in the market that the deal would get done, even as some state regulators are privately embracing the possible acquisition. on.wsj.com/2f2L2dc - Melinda Gates says she is concerned about the fact that more than a billion women in the developing world don't have access to cellphones. on.wsj.com/2e5Y6K4 - Militants stormed a police academy in southwestern Pakistan late Monday, killing at least 59 and injuring more than 100, government officials said. on.wsj.com/2ezUvYh - Belgium said it would not support a trade deal between the European Union and Canada after one of its regions continued to block the pact, dashing hopes of signing the accord later this week. on.wsj.com/2ezX6Br - The Venezuelan government and the leading opposition alliance said they would meet to resolve the country's deep economic and political crisis. on.wsj.com/2ezX8co FT - China based HNA Group is buying a 25 percent stake in Hilton for $6.5 billion. The deal to buy the stake from Blackstone values the US hotel chain at a 14 percent premium to Hilton's closing price. - World's largest independent oil trader Vitol said it is selling a 50 percent stake in its VTTI oil tank business to Buckeye Partners for $1.15 billion. - Rating agency S&P warned that it may cut AT&T's credit rating by one notch because of its deal to buy Time Warner, that would add to its debt. - Easyjet shares rallied on Monday after UBS turned positive on the company. UBS said that since expectation have already fallen more than 40 percent from recent peak, earnings risk is now "at least neutral". NYT - Three judges at Washington's federal appeals court on Monday questioned the government's analysis that led to MetLife's designation as a "too big to fail" financial company, as the Justice Department appeals a lower court's decision to strip the insurance giant of that label. http://nyti.ms/2dExRy9 - TD Ameritrade announced on Monday that it would acquire Scottrade Financial Services, a rival discount brokerage, for $4 billion, in a bid for scale at a time when small investors are losing their taste for stock trading. http://nyti.ms/2dEyI1X - The New York Times has made another bet on so-called service journalism, with the acquisition of the product recommendation site the Wirecutter and its sibling, the Sweethome. The all-cash transaction, worth slightly more than $30 million, closed on Monday. http://nyti.ms/2dEzxI1 - In a surprise move on Monday, the German authorities withdrew approval for the takeover of Aixtron SE, a domestic semiconductor firm, by a Chinese bidder - a deal that was set to be an emblem of a new push by Chinese companies to acquire cutting-edge technology businesses and a sign of Berlin's tolerance for such moves. http://nyti.ms/2dEwteW Britain The Times A group of Australian farming families have launched an eleventh-hour bid to keep the world's largest parcel of privately owned land, a string of cattle stations, out of Chinese hands. http://bit.ly/2dDXJu1 Steelworkers at Port Talbot face fresh uncertainty after the chairman of Tata Sons was ousted amid tensions over the conglomerate's poor performance. He has been replaced by Ratan Tata, the magnate who oversaw the group's international expansion. http://bit.ly/2dE05cx The Guardian Microsoft Corp will increase the prices it charges British businesses by up to 22 percent to account for the slump in the value of the pound following the EU referendum result. http://bit.ly/2dE00oY ITV Plc has announced plans to cut 120 jobs due to political and economic uncertainty, particularly concerns over the possible impact of Brexit. http://bit.ly/2dDXHCs The Telegraph Cobham Plc, the troubled aerospace and defence manufacturer, has cut its profit forecast for the second time this year, sending its shares plunging. http://bit.ly/2dDY9k8 Donald Trump's presidential campaign is facing a fundraising scandal after a Telegraph investigation exposed how key supporters were prepared to accept illicit donations from foreign backers. http://bit.ly/2dE2iVg Sky News A series of huge fines from U.S. regulators for mis-selling mortgage securities could be delayed until after next month's presidential election, dealing a blow to Royal Bank of Scotland's hopes of finalising a settlement by the end of the year. http://bit.ly/2dE2jZo The UK government will make the decision of expanding an airport in southeast England on Tuesday. It is widely expected that Heathrow will be the winner but that Gatwick will be allowed to expand at a later date. http://bit.ly/2dE3pUK The Independent Banks are planning to move business overseas in the first few months of 2017, Anthony Browne, chief executive officer of the British Bankers' Association, warned on Sunday, and some property investment companies are already looking to acquire new offices for their clients. http://ind.pn/2dE2Tq0
European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held near its highest level since March as fed fund futures prices Monday indicated there’s a 71 percent chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68 percent last week. The dollar rose after Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said it’s likely that interest rates will be hiked three times by the end of 2017 (although one year ago we were supposed to get 4 rate hikes in 2016). “If we look at the health of the U.S. economy, it just makes absolute sense to hike in December,” said James Woods, a strategist at Rivkin Securities in Sydney. While stocks may head higher, “it would not be a significant rally until we get the U.S. presidential election and rates out of the way,” he said. Factory surveys in the United States and Europe had boasted the best readings of the year so far on Monday and a six-month high for Japanese stocks in Tokyo overnight had followed a record close for the tech-heavy U.S. Nasdaq. European markets started with Germany's Dax nudging its highest level of the year as the closely-watch Ifo sentiment survey beat expectations a day after purchasing manager numbers had done the same. "We are seeing a pick up of economic activity against the backdrop of only one central bank -- the Fed -- that is likely to tighten policy and that is supporting asset markets," said CMC Markets senior analyst Michael Hewson. German business confidence rose to a 2 year high after the German IFO business climate survey rose +1.0pt in October, rising from 109.5 to 110.5. Today's print builds on the strong gain in the previous month and takes the level of the IFO to the highest it has been since April 2014. Yesterday's PMI also showed robust improvement in Germany. As the following chart shows, the various German confidence indices are on a tear recently after yesterday's stronger than expected PMI data. Now if only hard data can confirm the booming "soft" surveys. Attention has turned to commodities, and especially the metals complex, after iron ore surged by the daily 6% limit on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, and rising steel prices in China spurred a rally from aluminum to zinc. This boosted the currencies of resource-exporting nations, with South Africa and Australia leading gains versus the dollar. Industrial metals have gained steadily this year with an index of London Metal Exchange contracts poised for the first annual increase since 2012 as a pickup in manufacturing in the U.S. and euro area point to an economy that’s getting more robust. A report Tuesday showing German business sentiment rose to the highest level in more than two years in October added to the sense of optimism. “We’ve had a whole host of better-than-expected manufacturing data,” said Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Hellerup, a Copenhagen suburb. “Strong gains in China, led by steel and iron ore, are supporting the sentiment, which in turn has attracted increased speculative trading across the metals space.” What is curious is that the recent bout of strength - compounded with a lack of market volatility - comes at a time when the Chinese currency is plunging again, and just yesterday the offshore traded Yuan tumbled to the lowest on record since it began trading in 2010. The onshore exchange rate declined in all but one of this month’s 11 trading sessions through Monday, a sign the central bank has reduced support since the currency’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights on Oct. 1. Confused traders are wondering if this time really is different or if the market will simply react to this latest sign of deterioration in China's fund flows with its usual delayed reaction time. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its strongest close in three weeks as earnings reports fueled optimism about the profitability of the region’s companies. Spanish and Italian bonds outperformed top-rated German bunds as the region’s improving political and economic outlook sapped demand for haven assets. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1 percent, with miners leading gains; 14 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise with basic resources, banks outperforming and autos, health care underperforming; 59% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 40% decline. Orange SA led the charge among telecommunications stocks, adding 4.7 percent after posting an increase in quarterly profit. Randstad Holding NV rose 1.2 percent after announcing better-than-estimated revenue and saying growth trends were resilient across regions. Luxottica Group SpA jumped 7.7 percent after the maker of Ray-Ban sunglasses said sales growth will accelerate in 2017. S&P 500 Index futures climbed 0.2%. U.S. equities added 0.5 percent on Monday as deal activity boosted sentiment. Earnings remain in focus this week. Visa Inc. posted higher-than-expected profit after the close, and investors will be looking Tuesday to reports from Procter & Gamble Co. and General Motors Co. for indications of the health of corporate America. Caterpillar Inc. is among companies scheduled to release earnings that may provide more insight on the sustainability of the recovery in energy and mining. Apple Inc. is due to announce earnings after markets close Tuesday. In rates, the yield on Italian 10-year bonds declined two basis points to 1.37%, while Spanish 10Y bonds fell three basis points to 1.08%. The yield on benchmark German bunds fell one basis point to 0.17%. Yields on Treasuries due in a decade were steady at 1.76%, after climbing three basis points on Monday. U.S. yields will have to rise if Evans proves to be correct in his 3 rate hikes predictions for 2017, according to Kim Youngsung, head of overseas investment at South Korea’s Government Employees Pension Service in Seoul. After one increase “for sure” in December, two more in 2017 will send the 10-year yield past 2.5 percent, Kim said. Economists predict the benchmark will end next year at 2.14 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings. Japan’s 20-year government bonds rose for a fourth day after demand picked up at an auction of the securities on Tuesday. The yield fell 1/2 a basis point to 0.37 percent, matching its lowest level of the past three weeks. * * * Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities trade higher across the board as positive earnings continue to guide sentiment The German IFO survey came in higher than expected on all three readings. However, the reaction from the EUR was a tame one at best Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Lockhart, BoE's Carney and ECB's Draghi Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2149 Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 345 FTSE 100 up 0.5% to 7019 DAX up 0.5% to 10814 German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.02% Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.37% Spanish 10Yr yield down 3bps to 1.08% S&P GSCI Index up 0.7% to 377.4 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 141 Nikkei 225 up 0.8% to 17365 Hang Seng down 0.2% to 23565 Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 3132 S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5443 US 10-yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.76% Dollar Index down 0.09% to 98.66 WTI Crude futures up 0.8% to $50.92 Brent Futures up 0.7% to $51.82 Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,270 Silver spot up 1.1% to $17.79 Global Headline News Fed Inclined to Raise Rates If Next President Pumps Up Budget: Shift in policy mix could prove troublesome for markets Monte Paschi Jumps as CEO Pledges to Boost Profit, Cut Branches: Lender targeting annual profit of 1.1 billion euros in 2019 Dow Chemical CEO Says DuPont Merger May Be Delayed to February: Regulators’ biggest concern is impact on farming, Liveris says Visa Checkout Opening Its Platform; Android Pay Will Offer: Issuers, digital wallets, payment app providers will have access to APIs to integrate with Visa Checkout open platform; can access Visa Checkout open platform in 1H 2017 ASM International Could Be a Potential Takeover Target: Mega-mergers no longer seem feasible in the sector, with two large mergers having been blocked, Kepler says Syngenta Sees ChemChina Approval Delays on Deeper EU Prob U.S. Said to Be Closing in on Venezuelan Asset Seizures, Charges * * * Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks were lifted by the improved sentiment globally following the latest batch of firm earnings, which looks set to continue to dictate price action with Apple due to report later today. Nikkei 225 (+0.8%) is trading with modest gains, while the index has also supported by the weaker JPY. ASX 200 (+0.6%) follows suit with shares paring yesterday's healthcare triggered losses while Chinese markets were indecisive with Shanghai Comp (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) down on mild profit taking after yesterday's outperformance which saw the mainland index print 2-month highs. KOSPI (-0.5%) underperformed on the back of lower than prior Q3 prelim GDP figures, which comes despite beating expectations. Japanese bond yields continued to flatten across the curve, with outperformance yet again in the long end, with JGB's tracking higher post the firm 20-yr auction. Asian Top News Offshore Yuan Trades Near Record Low as PBOC Seen Allowing Drop: Authorities are delinking yuan from dollar, focusing on basket China Money Rate Rises to 18-Month High as Yuan Spurs Outflows: Central bank adds most funds in six months to counter drain JR Kyushu Shares Surge in Tokyo Debut After $4 Billion IPO: Stock climbs as much as 20% from sale price of 2,600 yen Lotte Revives Hotel IPO as Group Seeks to Regain Confidence: Group is also plans listings of other Lotte affiliates Turmoil Erupts at Tata as India’s Top Group Ousts Chairman: Ratan Tata returns as interim chairman to fill in for Mistry SK Hynix Profit Beats Estimates as Memory Chip Prices Rally: DRAM shipments rose on demand for mobile devices, PCs In Europe, bourses trade in positive territory as a slew of earnings help push equities higher (EuroStoxx +0.25%) with macro newsflow otherwise relatively light. In terms of sectors, the outperformer today is telecommunications, after Orange (ORA FP) posted a beat on expectations and is currently the notable outperformer in the CAC 40 (+0.33%). Also of note, the Wind and Italia 3 merger has been approved by the EU commission which could also contribute to sector bullishness. Fixed income markets have been capped by the gains in equities and supply may also be a factor with a number or corporates entering the market notably, Danone offering a 5 part EUR-deal. PGB's are still benefitting from the positive effects of that DBRS rating and Bono (Spanish) yields continue to perform well after Spanish PM Rajoy announced the formation of a ruling government and the Tesoro confirmed there will be EUR 5bIn less issuance this year. Furthermore, this morning has also seen UK open books on their 2065 Gilt with Austria opening books for their 7 and 70yr issuance. European Top News Novartis 3Q Core EPS Beats, Net Sales in Line; Keeps FY Outlook German Ifo Business Confidence Increases to Highest Since 2014: Gauges for current situation, expectations both improve Orange Earnings Rise 1.6% on Mobile Demand in Spain, Africa: Growth outside France helps offset effects of domestic rivalry Julius Baer, DBS Said to Vie for ABN Amro’s Asia Wealth Arm: LGT Bank also weighing bid for Asia private-banking business U.K. to Show Sharpest Slowdown in Europe in Third Quarter: May see growth slow to 0.3 percent from 0.7 percent -- and then to just 0.1 percent in the last three months of the year Swedbank Beats Estimates as Third-Quarter Profit Jumps 23%: CEO says Swedbank will speed up its digital banking push In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index held near its highest level since March as fed fund futures prices Monday indicated there’s a 71 percent chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68 percent last week. The gauge gained in the last session as Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said it’s likely that interest rates will be hiked three times by the end of 2017. South Africa’s rand rose 0.5 percent, followed by a 0.4 percent gain for the Australian dollar amid a pickup in commodities prices. They were among the few to advance versus the greenback, which is being supported by speculation that the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. Canada’s dollar weakened 0.4 percent, erasing most of the last session’s rebound from a seven-month low, after central bank Governor Stephen Poloz clarified earlier remarks that had curbed speculation interest rates will be cut. Poloz said he wasn’t referring to monetary policy when he told lawmakers that the best plan was “to wait for the next 18 months or so.” The yuan held near a six-year low in Shanghai and reached its weakest level on record in the offshore market, which began trading in 2010. The onshore exchange rate declined in all but one of this month’s 11 trading sessions through Monday, a sign the central bank has reduced support since the currency’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights on October 1. In commodities, after three years of slumping prices as mine supply rose and Chinese growth slowed, iron ore has gained 36 percent in 2016. China steelmakers, which produce half the world’s output, have fired up plants after stronger demand boosted prices and expanded profit margins. Zinc, used to galvanize steel, jumped 2.1 percent at 10:53 a.m. in London after surging to a five-year high on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while hot rolled steel coil climbed to levels last seen in April. Coking coal, necessary for steel production, rallied to an all-time high on tight supplies. Aluminum, copper and nickel all gained more than 2 percent on the LME. Crude oil rose 0.5 percent to $50.79 a barrel in New York, having declined 0.7 percent on Monday after Iraq said it should be exempted from planned production cuts being orchestrated by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The head of OPEC is set to visit Baghdad on Tuesday for talks aimed at resolving the matter. Looking at the day ahead, it’s mainly second tier data due out in the US today although the highlight will be the October consumer confidence reading. As a reminder the September print unexpectedly surged to 104.1 which is the highest since August 2007 with the improvement fairly evenly split between current conditions and future expectations. The market does expect some moderation in the October level (101.5 expected) although that will still keep it near the top end of the recent range. Also due out this afternoon in the US will be housing market data in the form of the FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for October is expected to show some improvement, while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading is other the data point today. Fedspeak wise the Fed’s Lockhart is scheduled to speak on ‘lending and investing in community development’ at 6pm BST, although the title suggests that it won’t be particularly monetary policy focused. * * * US Event Calendar 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales 9am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Aug., est 0.4% (prior 0.5%) 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS Home Price Index m/m (prior 0.41%) 10am: Consumer Confidence Index, Oct., est. 101.5 (prior 104.1) 10am: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Oct., est. -4 (prior -8) 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Oct., est. 47.5 (prior 46.7) 1:20pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap This week hasn’t really got going yet and to be honest there’s not a huge amount of news to report of in the last 24 hours. With the ECB meeting behind us and the bigger macro events still to come it does feel like markets are in a bit of a holding pattern right now. Earnings ramp up today though and are headlined by the Apple numbers tonight which are always a bit of a spectacle for markets. So there’s that to look forward to. If there’s one area which has been kept busy in recent days though, it’s M&A. Indeed, hot on the heels of the AT&T/Time Warner and BAT/Reynolds American announcements last week it was very much ‘Merger Monday’ yesterday following a flurry of further deal announcements. Yesterday we saw Chinese conglomerate HNA Group agree to a deal to acquire a stake in Hilton for $6.5bn. Aircraft component maker Rockwell Collins has announced that it is to purchase B/E Aerospace for $6.4bn and in the financial sector TD Ameritrade has agreed to buy Scottrade Financial Services for $4bn. Indeed the window of opportunity for corporates might be narrowing as we approach year-end what with the number of potential risk events on the horizon. The US election is hovering just around the corner now while we’ve also got the Italy referendum to deal with, along with all things Fed, ECB and BoJ related. Not forgetting also the Brexit High Court case which is slowly bubbling below the surface, as well as the ongoing OPEC saga. So it might still be too early to call for any resurgence in animal spirits but yesterday’s announcements still helped to lift US equities. The S&P 500 closed +0.47% with the telecoms sector leading the charge. The Nasdaq (+1.00%) was the standout however after better than expected results from T-Mobile saw the US mobile carrier’s shares rally near 10%. European equities were initially stronger but faded into the close with the Stoxx 600 closing -0.01%. However the news that Rajoy is to take office for a second term in Spain and so ending the political impasse helped the IBEX to climb +1.27% while a decent performance for Spanish Banks also helped wider European Banks (+1.38%) continue their recent strong performance. Refreshing our screens this morning, it’s been a fairly mixed but all-in-all quiet start in Asia. The Nikkei (+0.62%) and ASX (+0.69%) are both tracking higher however the Hang Seng (-0.19%), Shanghai Comp (-0.11%) and Kospi (-0.68%) are all struggling for traction somewhat. Oil has struggled so far this week with WTI down -0.81% from Friday’s close with the focus turning to comments from Iraq’s Oil Minister who suggested that Iraq should be exempt from a production cut deal. More interesting in Asia however is the continued focus on the weakening Chinese Renminbi. The offshore Yuan is hovering around a six-year low of 6.7836 this morning and in the 17 trading days in October so far, has weakened on 14 of them now. Clearly the market and investors have become a lot more accustomed to allowing greater flexibility in China’s currency moves but the latest weakening is starting to attract more and more headlines. Moving on. Away from all things M&A related yesterday, the focus data-wise was on the October flash PMI’s. The data was particularly positive in Europe. Indeed the composite Euro area reading rose 1.1pts to 53.7 (vs. 52.8 expected). Both manufacturing (+0.7pts to 53.3) and services (+1.3pts to 53.5) readings edged higher while by country it was the composite reading for Germany (+2.3pts to 55.1) which impressed. France (-0.5pts to 52.2) was a little more disappointing although there was some upside in the latest manufacturing data there. Our European economists also highlighted that those PMI’s and other indicators suggest some upside risks of 0.1pp to their +0.3% qoq growth forecast for Q4 in the Euro area. Across the pond the flash manufacturing PMI in the US was also up this month after printing at 53.2 (vs. 51.5 expected) following a 51.5 reading in September. Treasuries faded a little with that data, the benchmark 10y yield finishing 3bps lower at 1.766% which is bang in line with where it was this time a week ago. The USD rally took a pause for breath although it was noted that the December Fed hike probability has now crept above 70% versus 66% this time last week. It was a similar story for core government bond markets in Europe yesterday although the periphery outperformed. 10y yields in Portugal were 3.8bps lower yesterday at 3.121% following the DBRS rating announcement we highlighted yesterday, while Spain (-1.2bps) also outperformed slightly on the weekend news. While we’re in the periphery, the latest Italian referendum poll run by EMG Acqua for TG La7 showed that 34.7% of Italians would vote to approve Renzi’s constitutional reform versus 37.8% who would reject. That leaves a sizeable 27.5% that are still undecided and underlines what we have said previously in that the number of undecided voters is still very much elevated. Elsewhere, the Fedspeak didn’t offer a huge amount to the debate yesterday. The usually dovish Chicago Fed President Evans said that ‘I think that there is room for the economy to continue to grow before we see inflation really pick up’ while the St Louis Fed President Bullard reiterated his view that there is no urgency in the Fed’s framework but that a single rate rise, likely in December, is all that is necessary for the time being. Meanwhile, over at the ECB the latest CSPP holdings data is in. The ECB confirmed that it held €35.886bn of bonds as of the end of last week which implies net purchases settled last week of €2.089bn. On a daily run rate basis that works out at €418m per day which is slightly above the €378m average since the start of the program. So another solid week of purchases. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe the day kicks off in France where the various October confidence indicators are due out. Shortly following that we’ll get the October IFO readings in Germany where the market is expecting little change in the headline business climate print. It’s mainly second tier data due out in the US this afternoon although the highlight will be the October consumer confidence reading. As a reminder the September print unexpectedly surged to 104.1 which is the highest since August 2007 with the improvement fairly evenly split between current conditions and future expectations. The market does expect some moderation in the October level (101.5 expected) although that will still keep it near the top end of the recent range. Also due out this afternoon in the US will be housing market data in the form of the FHFA and S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey for October is expected to show some improvement, while the IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading is other the data point today. Fedspeak wise the Fed’s Lockhart is scheduled to speak on ‘lending and investing in community development’ at 6pm BST, although the title suggests that it won’t be particularly monetary policy focused. In Europe there are a couple of important speakers however. ECB President Draghi speaks at 4.30pm BST on ‘stability, equity and monetary policy’ while BoE Governor Carney is due to appear in front of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee on the economic consequences of the Brexit vote. Earnings will be the other big focus today. 51 S&P companies are due to report with the ighlight being Apple after the close. Merck, Caterpillar and P&G will also be worth watching while in Europe Fiat Chrysler report.
Antitrust cops are sure to question the AT&T/Time Warner merger, especially for its effects on programming markets.
Наверное, впервые за последние несколько недель на рынке появилась более-менее внятная идея. Вернее - более-менее внятный настрой. Тому причиной несколько факторов.
Zerohedge.com: Manic Merger Monday Saves Stocks As China Currency Crashes To Record Low Маниакальное поглощение спасло акции в понедельник, а китайская валюта обвались к рекордным низам Оффшорный юань обрушился к рекордным низам… И огромное поглощение Time-Warner… (Nasdaq 100 достиг рекордных вершин)
The tech industry could come under new scrutiny.
Глава стриминговой компании Netflix Рид Хастингс частично поддержал сделку AT & amp;T и Time Warner, сообщает Reuters. По словам Хастингса, он настроен в пользу того, чтобы AT & amp;T купила Time Warner за $85,4 млрд, но при условии, что к ...
Oct 24 (Reuters) - Netflix Chief Executive Reed Hastings said he was in favor of AT&T Inc's planned $85.4 billion acquisition of Time Warner Inc, provided that his popular media streaming company continued to be treated fairly.
Now that the U.S. Census has released its newest estimate of median household income in the United States, it's time to consider where the U.S. federal government spending per U.S. household stands with respect to the Zero Deficit Line, which is the amount of spending that the typical American household can actually afford. The chart below shows those two measures for each year since 1967, when the Census first began reporting its median household income figure: Looking at the chart, we see that for the third year in a row, the amount of U.S. federal government spending per household is hovering just below $30,000 per U.S. household. Our tool below will reveal how much spending can actually be supported by the typical American household given its annual income of $50,054 (or whatever median household income level you might choose to enter!) Median Household Income Data Input Data Values Median Household Income How Much Federal Spending Per Household Can the U.S. Really Afford? Estimated Results Values Federal Spending per U.S. Household Using our tool, we find that in reality, the typical American household can only afford to have the federal government spend no more than $21,059. On a side note, do you remember the old Warner Brothers' Road Runner cartoons? The ones where Wile E. Coyote would be chasing after the bird, then suddenly find himself suspended in mid-air beyond the edge of a cliff, until he looked down and finally crashed back to earth? The level of federal spending per household since 2008 and the lack of meaningful growth in the incomes of U.S. households under President Obama, combined with all the talk these days of the approaching "fiscal cliff" suggests that there is one giant "splat" sound in the near future for the U.S.