If nothing else comes of Google suing their former autonomous driving engineer Anthony Levandowski (refresher: he's the guy that split with 14,000 proprietary Google documents, used them to start a new self-driving tech company called Otto and then promptly sold it to Uber for $700 million), the following text messages exchanged between Levandowski and former Uber CEO Travis Kalanick, disclosed as part of the discovery process, will have been well worth the millions in legal fees. In one text from September 2016, Levandowski texted Kalanick to suggest that they should setup a fake twitter handle called "@faketesla" specifically to "give physics lessons about stupid shit Elon says..." Per Recode: "Yo! I'm back at 80%, super pumped... we've got to start calling Elon on his shit. I'm not on social media but let's start "faketesla" and start give physics lessons about stupid shit Elon says like this: "we do not anticipate using lidar. Just to make it clear, lidar essentially is active photon generator in the visible spectrum – radar is active photon generation in essentially the radio spectrum. But lidar doesn’t penetrate intrusions so it does not penetrate rain, fog, dust and snow, whereas a radar does. Radar also bounces and lidar doesn’t bounce very well. You can’t do the “look in front of the car in front of you” thing. So I think the obvious thing is to use radar and not use lidar." "The photons stop acting like photons at 77Ghz we at least need the geeks on our side and start calling the BS out. Any objections?" Clearly Levandowski doesn't subscribe to society's widely observed texting guidelines which clearly mandate extreme brevity be utilized at all times... But it didn't end there. In a series of text messages that clearly demonstrate an extreme obsession with Musk, Levandowski and Kalanick contemplate calling out Tesla on its safety record... Watch first 45seconds... Tesla crash in January which implies Elon is lying about millions of miles without incident. We should have LDP on tesla just to catch all the crashes that are going on. Got this from ford who's debating call him out on his shit ...and also seemingly sought out spies from within Musk's management team... “I'm still with the tesla guys and will try to get more info,” Levandowski texted Kalanick. (Levandowski was at a dinner with 80 or so industry representatives and regulators, including Tesla’s former head of Autopilot, Sterling Anderson. Other attendees included Paul Hemmersbaugh from General Motors; Stefan Heck, CEO of auto tech startup Nauto; and James Kuffner of the Toyota Research Institute.) Of course, Levandowski and Kalanick also kept close tabs on Google's progress in the self-driving car space and at one point even discussed a meeting between Kalanick and the head of Google's self-driving arm, Waymo. Separately, Kalanick and Levandowski talked about someone they refer to as “JK.” Kalanick said JK agreed to meet him and Levandowski said to ask him about Waze and self-driving cars. Uber could not provide clarity on who JK is, but based on context, it appears they are referring to John Krafcik, the CEO of Alphabet’s self-driving arm Waymo. The conversation occurred a few months before Uber announced it was acquiring Otto in August 2016, but three months after Levandowski left Alphabet and founded Otto. With that, tune in next week for an all new episode of Silicon Valley...
David McWilliams: Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers - Every era, every century, every generation has its massive technological disruption- Taxi drivers being "disrupted" by technology of Uber- History shows how "middle men" frequently made redundant- Skill set of many professionals today can be replicated by machines and technology- Technology may make lawyers, accountants, architects and doctors redundant- We risk "cannabalising ourselves" with internet and emerging technologies Jean-Luc Picard "assimilated" by the Borg in Star Trek Looking out to sea at the huge winter waves crashing upon the Cape Town shore, it’s hard to imagine what the first local tribesman thought when he saw, in the distance, Vasco De Gama’s tiny Portuguese ship sail round the Cape of Good Hope, heading out towards the Indian Ocean in search of profit. You wonder what went through the local’s mind? Could he have imagined the calamity that was soon to befall his people and most of the peoples of Africa? Once the Portuguese had opened up the passage to India via the Atlantic, the old Silk Roads, the commercial superhighways of the medieval ages from China to Istanbul, were gradually downgraded in global commerce. Economically, the Earth shifted on its axis from Asia to the Atlantic. This was the great disruption. It took a while, but the commercial earthquake triggered by the Portuguese heading around Africa in 1497 and sailing triumphantly into the port of Calcutta in India is impossible to understate. So much changed, from slavery to mass manufacturing, from the conversion of England’s peasants to proletarian workers and, more traumatically, the mass expropriation of native lands, stemmed from the commercial imperative to trade as much stuff as possible in as many countries as possible. It was the beginning of European domination of the world. In 1497, India was the richest, most commercially sophisticated economy in the world. As Sven Beckert explains in ‘Empire of Cotton’ (well worth a summer read), India’s main produce was cotton and it was one of the most sought after manufacturing products in the world. Cotton was fine, soft, fashionable and durable unlike the smelly, heavy wool that Europeans were used to wearing. Cotton came from India and before the Portuguese opened the Atlantic route, various middlemen held European consumers in ransom. At every stage margin was added, starting with getting the cotton across the Indian Ocean, then the camel transporters in the Arabian desert took a margin, then the Ottoman merchants charged to get the material across the Mediterranean to Italy and then naturally, the Italians took their cut. These guys were yesterday’s middlemen. The fees that cotton generated for these middlemen kept generations of Ottoman, Arab and Indian merchants in clover for centuries. The fees were paid in the high price of cotton forked out by the final consumer in Europe. Then overnight the Portuguese transported cotton directly from India around the Cape, cutting out the various Silk Road middlemen. The price of cotton from India started to fall. The Portuguese made fortunes, even calling this place the Cape of Good Hope because of the riches Indian trade promised. Profits always attract and these fortunes attracted the next two waves of European occupiers to this part of the world. The Dutch arrived soon after the Portuguese and settled here, some becoming the Afrikaaner Tribe. The Afrikanners stayed to farm, but most Dutch adventurers were traders, using Cape Town as an essential port on the long journey from Amsterdam to India and further afield to Indonesia. Of course Cape Town flourished later under the British, whose demand for Indian cotton to feed the mills in Manchester was so insatiable that they rolled out much of their subsequent Empire to guarantee cotton supplies. All these massive shifts in economics had one thing in common: they were driven to cut out the middleman. Cutting out the middleman is, and has always been, one of the major drivers of economic innovation. Whatever the product, profit margins tend to be driven by forcing down costs, making production more efficient and, if possible, maintaining your selling price. This is what capitalism and trade are all about. The relentless pursuit of profit always identifies the middleman and tries to force him out or lower his take. For the producer, the quickest way from production to sale is the most profitable route. The fewer mouths to feed, the higher the margin — this means eliminating the middleman. In the old days the technology that eliminated the Asian, Arab and Ottoman middleman was Portuguese, Dutch and later British naval prowess. Every generation has their technology. Today that technology is the Internet. The only problem is that today we risk cannibalising ourselves. As was pointed out in this column last week, we are all “middlemen” and if today’s technology is about eliminating the middleman, very soon we end up eliminating ourselves. In a mature service economy with easy credit and rampant consumerism, the middleman is what is normally called the white-collar economy. So everyone who doesn’t actually make something is threatened by new technology that cuts out the middleman. In a time of the smartphone and companies like Netflix, Airbnb, Amazon and Uber, these might not so much be regarded as fantastic innovations, but could be seen as the enemy for many who could lose their jobs. Consider London’s famous black taxis. In the old days the London cabbie had to learn “The Knowledge”. This meant that the cabbie had to train for two years to memorise every nook and cranny of London, every backstreet in every area of that vast city. This effort demanded cabbies renting scooters to head out for months on end, committing the city’s streets to memory. Once he had the knowledge in his head, the cabbie did a rigorous exam and got his taxi license. He also had to buy a special black cab, an expensive vehicle, for which London is famous. The knowledge was his pricing power; his cab was his unique asset. Because he had the knowledge, he could demand a fare. This was his value added and his price was his margin. Now consider what has happened with the arrival of Uber. The new Uber driver doesn’t need the knowledge. He has Google maps. He doesn’t need the expensive black cab either. He has a second-hand Toyota. The value of the knowledge is eliminated and the asset is depreciated. In no time the cabbies’ livelihood dwindles. Uber is doing to the cabbie what the Portuguese did to other middlemen: eliminating them. Just wait until technology does this to lawyers, accountants, architects and doctors. Whether they like it or not, the skill set of many of these professionals can be replicated accurately by machines. All the above are functional positions and with the exceptions of possibly doctors, few would lose sleep at their passing. The point is every era, every century, every generation has its massive technological disruption. In the 1980s and 1990s when technology, outsourcing and the relentless drive for profits destroyed working-class manufacturing, the middle classes called it “economic reform”. Now when technology comes after those with white collars and pristine fingernails, what will they call it? The local tribes in South Africa called it ‘Maafa’ from the Swahili word meaning “the great tragedy”. Courtesy of David McWilliams.ie News and Commentary Gold hits over two-month high on N.Korea tensions (Reuters.com) Gold logs biggest one-day jump in nearly 3 months — silver biggest daily climb in 10½ months (MarketWatch.com) Dollar weakens as U.S.-North Korea discord prompts run to safety | August 09, 2017 (MarketWatch.com) Wall Street falls on ramp-up of U.S. tension with North Korea (Reuters.com) Investors rush to gold following rising North Korea tensions (Portfolio-Adviser.com) Gold Spikes on North Korea Crisis – Ira Epstein on Bloomberg (Bloomberg.com) JPM CEO Warns Sovereign Bonds Are Overvalued (Bloomberg.com) Swiss National Bank Mining Share Portofolio Value Falls By 30% Year Over Year (SmaulGld.com) Central Banks Coordinating Manipulations Daily - Dr. Ron Paul (Youtube.com) 10 years since the credit crunch began: are we safe from a repeat of the financial crisis now? (Telegraph.co.uk) Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce09 Aug: USD 1,267.95, GBP 974.80 & EUR 1,079.79 per ounce08 Aug: USD 1,261.45, GBP 967.78 & EUR 1,068.20 per ounce07 Aug: USD 1,257.55, GBP 963.41 & EUR 1,065.90 per ounce04 Aug: USD 1,269.30, GBP 964.92 & EUR 1,068.37 per ounce03 Aug: USD 1,261.80, GBP 952.41 & EUR 1,064.96 per ounce02 Aug: USD 1,266.65, GBP 956.83 & EUR 1,069.56 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce09 Aug: USD 16.59, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.14 per ounce08 Aug: USD 16.39, GBP 12.57 & EUR 13.87 per ounce07 Aug: USD 16.13, GBP 12.35 & EUR 13.67 per ounce04 Aug: USD 16.70, GBP 12.71 & EUR 14.07 per ounce03 Aug: USD 16.47, GBP 12.50 & EUR 13.91 per ounce02 Aug: USD 16.67, GBP 12.60 & EUR 14.09 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat- Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners- Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline- Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017- Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”- What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi- Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver- This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor- Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble- Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis- Gold Seasonal Sweet Spot – August and September – Coming- Commercial Property Market In Dublin Is Inflated and May Burst Again- Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing Important Guides For your perusal, below are our most popular guides in 2017: Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Switzerland Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore Essential Guide to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK) Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.
World stocks hit a new record high on Monday, as U.S. index futures followed Asian stocks on better-than-expected company earnings and strong US jobs data deflected attention from the rising geopolitical tension over North Korea's nuclear program. European stocks traded near session lows while Crude oil prices fall. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed ahead of speeches by the Fed's James Bullard and Neel Kashkari later Monday. Yields on U.S. and German Bunds rose off one-month lows hit at the end of last week, while the yield on China’s 10-year sovereign bonds climbs 3 bps to a two-month high of 3.67%, after Friday’s better-than-expected jobs data brightened investors’ outlook for the U.S. economy. The Dow Jones recorded its eighth consecutive record high on Friday, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan adding 0.5% on Monday. Helping global stocks hit record highs, of the nearly 1000 companies in the MSCI world index that have reported, 67% have beaten expectations, according to Reuters data. Of the MSCI Europe companies having reported, 61% have either met or beat expectations. But focusing on industrial firms – of which many depend on exports, and are sensitive to a stronger euro – the beat ratio is just 37%. Also the U.S. dollar dipped slightly but held on to much of Friday's gains - its biggest daily rise this year - after data showed the United States created more jobs than forecast last month. As a result, the MSCI World index rose above a peak breached late last month, setting a new all-time high of 480.09 on Monday. "The US made the most noise last week ... At the start of the new week, risk sentiment improved in Asia with investors continuing to show a certain degree of risk affinity," DZ Bank strategist Rene Albrecht said. For some analysts, Monday's pull back in the dollar backs some views in markets that Friday's rally may not have legs. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global peers, inched back 0.2 percent to 93.361. It rallied 0.76 percent on Friday, its biggest one-day gain this year. The dollar slipped 0.2 percent against the euro to $1.1796 per euro, after surging 0.8 percent on Friday. "The most logical view here is the moves on Friday were clearly just a sizeable covering of USD shorts, from what was one of the biggest net short positions held against the USD for many years," Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG in Melbourne, wrote in a note. For the dollar rally to gain momentum, the market needs to change its interest rate pricing, Weston added. Despite another drain in liquidity by the PBOC overnight. which soaked up another CNY60 billion in net reverse repos, Chinese industrial commodity metal soared, led by aluminum futures while steel rebar surged as much as 6.4% higher, before closing up 3.0% as iron ore closed up 6.5%. #Steel rebar futures in #China closed 6.4% higher; #IronOre closed 3% higher after surging as much as 6.5% intraday pic.twitter.com/xbFTMQY6Ql — YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) August 7, 2017 In the overnight FX session, kiwi slod 0.6% against greenback to 0.7368 while the euro rose as much as 0.2% to $1.1814, approaching its highest since early 2015, despite an unexpected drop in German industrial production in June. Output fell 1.1% in June after rising 1.2% in May, far below the estimated 0.2% increase and the first drop in six months. Production was up 2.4 percent from a year earlier. Still, with strong orders pointing to a likely pickup in manufacturing, the report is unlikely to mark a turning point for the German economy. Meanwhile, business confidence is at a record high and the Bundesbank sees growth continuing, even as momentum at the start of the third quarter lagged behind that of France, Italy and Spain for the first time in more than 12 years. The common currency rebounded following a slump against the greenback in the wake of U.S. jobs data on Friday. With EUR-USD parity now long forgotten, the next "big thing" on FX traders' minds is whether and when EUR-GBP parity may be achieved (with some penciling in the end of the year). “I’m maxing on the euro at $1.20 at the moment, and I’m happy for it to be poodling along for a little while until something new and different comes long,” David Bloom, global head of currency strategy at HSBC said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It could be tax reform in the U.S.” As Bloomberg writes, "the euro’s continued resilience is a testament to growing investor confidence in the growth story of the European Union amid disappointment over U.S. President Donald Trump’s failure get tax reform and infrastructure spending plans off the ground." Monday’s report from Germany is unlikely to mark a turning point for either the nation’s economy or the wider bloc, which has successfully navigated a series of political challenges while expansion accelerates. Meanwhile, European stocks slumped near session lows after rising 1% on Friday, the most since July 12, thanks to the drop in the Euro. The STOXX Europe 600 Price Index declined 0.3%, led by drop in IT, travel and real-estate shares, offsetting advances for ArcelorMittal, BHP Billiton Plc and Anglo American Plc after iron ore and steel prices climbed. Travel and leisure shares fall 0.6%, tech retreats 0.5%' Basic resources surged 1.1%. Germany’s DAX Index sank 0.2 percent. Earlier, Japan’s Topix index ended at a two-year high, boosted by earnings at Toyota Motor Corp., while benchmarks in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong also gained. Toyota jumped 2 percent after it beat first-quarter profit estimates and raised its full-year forecast on Friday. Australia's ASX 200 (+0.9%) was led higher by commodity names after an early surge in Chinese Iron Ore futures, and as strong Australian Construction PMI (60.5 vs. Prey. 56.0) further contributed to the sector's positivity. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) was boosted by JPY weakness. South Korea’s Kospi index gained 0.1 percent. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.4 percent. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index added 0.5 percent to trade near to its highest since December 2007. The Japanese yen decreased 0.1 percent to 110.80 per dollar. Aside from a slight weakening in the Korean won, there was little financial market reaction to the news over the weekend that the U.N. Security Council unanimously imposed new sanctions on North Korea aimed at pressuring Pyongyang to end its nuclear program. Late on Sunday, Donald Trump tweeted that South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed in a telephone call on Monday to apply maximum pressure and sanctions on North Korea, while China expressed hope that North and South Korea could resume contact soon. Elsewhere, Sir Simon Fraser has warned that Brexit negotiations have not begun well blaming the Government's failure so state clearly its position. The Telegraph reported that the UK is prepared to pay for a Brexit separation bill of as much as €40bln in which it is likely to offer 3 annual payments of €10bn, then finalise the total alongside trade discussions, according to sources. However, later source reports in The Guardian dismissed this as inaccurate speculation. West Texas Crude futures fell away from nine-week highs hit after the strong job data bolstered hopes for growing energy demand, and dropped below $49 a barrel as producers gathered in Abu Dhabi to discuss why some of them are falling behind in pledges to reduce output. Gold fell 0.1 percent to $1,257.80 an ounce, the weakest in a week. Copper declined less than 0.05 percent to $2.88 a pound. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced one basis point to 2.27%. Germany’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point to 0.48%. Britain’s 10-year yield declined less than one basis point to 1.174%. Among the key events this week, OPEC and non-member nations will meet in Abu Dhabi today to discuss supply cut compliance, which fell to 86% in July. It’s a week of industrial data in Europe. U.K. factory output for June is due Thursday. After Monday’s industrial production for Germany, Italy is on Wednesday and France on Friday. Among a number of Fed speakers this week, keep a keen ear out for comments by New York Fed boss Bill Dudley on Thursday. South African President Jacob Zuma faces a no-confidence vote. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte resumes talks to form a coalition government on Wednesday. The Fed’s inflation puzzle means Friday’s CPI data will get close attention. Economists estimate that headline picked up in July to 1.8% from 1.6%, while core stayed at 1.7%. Argentina, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, the Philippines, Serbia and Zambia set monetary policy. Bulletin Headline Summary Most major currencies nursed some of their post-NFP losses against the greenback, in which EUR/USD attempted to reclaim 1.1800 Brexit Back In Focus With Contradicting Reports Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Bullard and Kashkari Global Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,474 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 382.15 MSCI Asia up 0.5% to 161.18 MSCI Asia ex-Japan up 0.5% to 530.95 Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,055.89 Topix up 0.5% to 1,639.27 Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 27,690.36 Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,279.46 Sensex down 0.06% to 32,305.24 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 5,773.56 Kospi up 0.1% to 2,398.75 German 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 0.474% Euro up 0.3% to 1.1803 per US$ Italian 10Y yield rose 3.3 bps to 1.73% Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.478% Brent Futures down 0.7% to $52.05/bbl Gold spot down 0.08% to $1,257.89 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 93.37 Top Overnight News North Korea condemned the latest round of United Nations sanctions and reiterated that it wouldn’t negotiate its nuclear deterrence until the U.S. ceases “hostile” policies Theresa May’s office dismissed as speculation a report that the U.K. is prepared to pay a 40 billion-euro ($47 billion) bill to leave the European Union, while leading Brexit supporters pushed back against paying anything at all German industrial production unexpectedly slipped in June as manufacturing and construction caused a temporary blip in the growth spurt of Europe’s largest economy New Chief of Staff Kelly Moves Quickly to Tame Trump’s Tweets Senate Chairman Demanding Answers Ramps Up Trump Russia Probe United Technologies Is Said to Weigh Rockwell Collins Deal Sprint Is Said to Resume Preliminary Talks on T- Mobile Merger BlackRock Real Assets Acquires Magacela Solar Project Bond Berkshire Second Quarter Operating EPS Misses Lowest Estimate Berkshire Filing Shows Further Reduction in Buffett’s IBM Stake Uber Engineer Told Kalanick of Alibi for Downloaded Files Boeing, U.S. Have Deal for Air Force One Planes Russia Abandoned Eros Said in Talks to Sell Content Library to Apple for $1B: ET SoftBank Talks Were Said to Value Uber at $45b: The Information JPMorgan to Announce Warsaw Office Investment in Sept.: Puls Asian equity markets traded mostly higher following Friday's gains on Wall Street and as the region took its first opportunity to react to the better than expected NFP release. ASX 200 (+1.0%) was led higher by commodity names after an early surge in Chinese Iron Ore futures, and as strong Australian Construction PMI (60.5 vs. Prey. 56.0) further contributed to the sector's positivity. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was boosted by JPY weakness, Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) was the underperformer despite a substantial liquidity injection by the PBoC, as this still amounted to a daily net outflow of CNY 60bn after expiring prior operations were accounted for. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand dampened by the upbeat tone in the region and a lack of BoJ Rinban announcement. Shanghai Stock Exchange is to increase scrutiny of M&A, transfer of control deals and other corporate actions that could lead to financial risk in the market. PBoC injected CNY 130b1n in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 120bln in 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.7228 (Prey. 6.7132). Chinese FX Reserves (Monthly) (Jul) 3.081T vs. Exp. 3.069T (Prey. 3.057T) China Q2 prelim current account USD 52.9bln vs. Prev. USD 18.4bln Top Asian News Correction May Loom for India Bank Stocks, Hedge Fund Warns China’s Foreign Reserves Rise a Sixth Month on Yuan Strength As Results Loom, Noble Group Won’t Reply to Latest Iceberg Barbs North Korea Condemns Latest UN Nuclear Sanctions, Vows Response SoftBank Profit Tops Estimates Amid Shift Into Deals, Investing European bourses trade rangebound following Friday's NFP volatility, and do maintain their highs. European bourses trade mixed, however marginally so, with Stoxx 600 sector seeing any movement greater than 1%. A large position liquidation in the German bund sparked some morning volatility, in otherwise quiet conditions. The future contract came off session highs, however, did manage to find support at the 163.00 handle. Top European News London Home Rents Fall Again After Almost Decade of Growth Halts U.K. House-Price Growth Slows to Weakest Pace in Four Years U.K. Economy Takes a Hit as Consumer Spending Slumps Further German Industrial Output Unexpectedly Falls First Time This Year Euro Climbs to Fresh Day High as Demand on Crosses Supports Paris Aims to Overtake Frankfurt in Race for Brexit Bank Jobs Taking a Long Shot on Cancer, AstraZeneca Defies the Odds Linde Forms Holding Company for Merger With Praxair: Welt In currencies, the EUR saw some early buying pressure this morning, coinciding with the Bund liquidation, as EUR pairs popped through overnight levels. No fundamental factors sparked the movement, with EUR/CHF seeing the main bullish pressure, yet resistance was found at 1.15 and we now trade at largely pre-announced levels. GBP was unmoved following contradicting reports in UK press over reports on Brexit costs and remains comfortably above 1.30. The Telegraph noted that the UK is prepared to pay EUR 40b1n for Brexit divorce bill, however source reports in the Guardian dismissed this as inaccurate speculation. In commodities, copper prices traded choppy with initial upside seen as Dalian Iron Ore and Rebar futures surged at the open of China metals trade, which was due to reduced stockpiles and firm demand. However, copper then failed to hold onto the gains and retreated amid a cautious risk tone in China. WTI futures failed to test the USD 50.00/bbl level and ran into some resistance around USD 49.60 on Friday, following the latest Baker Hughes Rig Count. Oil does continue to trade in this August; 48.50 — 50.00 range, as we are set to see an OPEC compliance meeting this week. Global demand has seemingly picked up of late however, with China now overtaking the United States as the world's largest importer of crude importing an average 8.55m1n BPD in the first half of 2017, above the 8.12mln BPD. WTI has been softer this morning, down 1.20% as we have broken through 49.00/bbl. Libya's Sharara oil field (largest in the country), is said to face stoppage due to protests, according to press reports. Looking at the day ahead, today starts with Germany’s industrial production figures for June in early morning, followed by UK’s July Halifax house price index and then US’s consumer credit stats for July. Also today we have speeches from the Fed’s Bullard and the Fed’s Kashkari, followed by the OPEC/Non-OPEC joint technical committee meeting in Abu Dhabi. US Event Calendar 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.3b, prior $18.4b 10:45am: Fed’s Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy in Nashville, TN 1:25pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks in Bloomington, MN DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap In theory we should now be at the start of the real summer lull that will likely last until the Jackson Hole build-up. The event starts on August 24th so we should now get two weeks of calm. If that statement is not enough to encourage a violent bout of volatility then I don't know what will! I'm hoping I'll be still here to report on the lull as my wife was 33 weeks pregnant yesterday and the consultant last week advised delivery at around 36 weeks. However she has some doubts as to whether we'll get that far though and the average pregnancy length for identical twins is 35 weeks and 2 days. So I'm on standby to panic at any moment. I was desperately hoping we could hold on into September (I say we but....) so they would have an extra year before they start school. All the evidence is that autumn children do better at school and sports than summer children. However I now accept that the mother and twin's health is more important than me being proud that my boys are the best at sport in their year by virtue of being the oldest and biggest!! Back to the summer lull. The week post payrolls is normally quiet anyway but this week could be extra so. There's only really one obvious observable candidate to create a little noise this week and that's the US CPI numbers on Friday (PPI on Thursday). Friday's slightly stronger than expected payroll number and hint of stronger wages (more detail below) did have an impact on markets as we'll see below. Inflation data is probably where the market is most sensitive to a surprise at the moment. Our economists expect gasoline prices to cause headline CPI (+0.1% vs. Unch,) to round down, while core CPI inflation (+0.2% vs. +0.1%) should finally snap its streak of four consecutive monthly misses which could be important. Our economists also remind us that as recent Fed statements have emphasized, policymakers will be monitoring near-term inflation trends closely. Hence, an in line print would provide tentative evidence that the recent downshift in core inflation may be behind us. What we also might hear about this week is the 10-year anniversary of BNP Paribas announcing that they were closing down three hedge funds specialising in US mortgages. This happened on August 9th 2007 and was the catalyst for the inter-bank market to fully shut down as no-one trusted anyone anymore which in turn set off a course of events that led to the bank run on Northern Rock just over a month later and the other nasty events culminating in the Lehman default 12 months down the line. It seems like only yesterday. Also in quieter times its fascinating to see that President Macron's approval rating has dipped sharply and as you can see from the graph in today's PDF, its now not much higher than President Trump's in the US. Our DB Europe economist Marc de Muizon published a note on Friday analysing the implications of Macron’s recent drop in popularity. He notes that while it is common for freshly elected presidents to see their popularity fall post-election, Macron's drop is still relatively large and early by historical standards. With the growth momentum in the euro-area and in France picking up, and given his electoral success, Macron now needs to avoid further controversies to ensure his reform agenda can be pushed through to the end. There could be some wider market interest in this story after the summer ends. Onto markets and the week is generally starting on the front foot in Asia with the Nikkei +0.6%, the Hang Seng +0.4% and Kospi +0.4% all higher as we type. The Shanghai Comp is actually slightly lower (-0.2%). There's not been a lot of fresh news flow and sentiment is following the lead from Friday. Indeed Friday was a strong day for global equity markets (especially in Europe) that capped off an otherwise flat week. Over in the US the S&P 500 ticked up +0.2% following the better than expected payrolls data, with financials leading the way with gains of +0.7% on the day. The S&P 500 has now seen 12 successive closes of less than 0.3% in either direction which is a record with daily data going back to 1927. So quite remarkable really. The Dow (+0.3%) also continued to trade to new highs (+1.2% on the week but creeping up fractions every day!). European markets saw even stronger performance on Friday as the STOXX 600 rallied +1% as every sector ended the day in positive territory. The STOXX Banks index was also up +1.2% on the day. Regional indices also posted strong gains, with the DAX (+1.2%), CAC (+1.4%), FTSE (+0.5%) and FTSE MIB (+0.7%) all up on the day. Over in government bond markets the strong payrolls number led to US treasuries selling off across the curve (2Y +1bps; 10Y +4bps). Over in Europe Bunds yields also ticked up at all maturities beyond the 5Y point (10Y +2bps). Gilt yields rose across all maturities (2Y +3bps; 10Y +3bps) to retrace part of the rally that followed the BoE meeting on Thursday, but 10Y Gilt yields were still lower by -4bps on the week. Elsewhere OATs (10Y +3bps) and BTPs (10Y +3bps) were higher across maturities. Turning to FX markets, the US dollar index (+0.8%) rallied following the strong employment report to end the week higher by +0.4%. On the other side of these moves, EUR (-0.8%) and GBP (-0.8%) both posted losses to end the week roughly flat and down -0.8% respectively. Over in commodity markets the energy sector saw oil pick up gains of about +1.0% on Friday, although it ended the week lower by -0.3% due to bigger losses earlier in the week. Precious Metals were lower on Friday with Gold and Silver down -0.7% and -2.0% respectively, while the industrial metals complex saw copper flat while aluminum dropped by -0.5%. Agricultural commodities were fairly mixed on the day as Cotton (+0.4%) and Corn (+0.8%) while other segments were flat (wheat, soybeans, coffee) to lower (sugar -1.2%). Friday was a fairly quiet data day over in Europe and most of the equity rally came after payrolls. The only data points of note were German factory orders which held steady at +1.0% (vs. +0.5% expected) followed by Italian retail sales that ticked up by +0.6% in June (vs. +0.1% mom expected) following no growth the month before. However the key market moving data was over in the US with the July employment report. Payrolls beat expectations at 209k (vs. 180k expected) while June’s number was revised up to 231k (from 222k). The unemployment rate ticked down one-tenth as expected to 4.3%, while monthly average hourly earnings also came in line with expectations at +0.3% mom but the YoY growth rate was a tenth higher than expected at 2.5%. Finally we also got US trade balance data for June where the trade deficit narrowed more than expected to - $43.6b (vs. -$44.5b expected; -$46.5b previous). To the week ahead now. Today starts with Germany’s industrial production figures for June in early morning, followed by UK’s July Halifax house price index and then US’s consumer credit stats for July. Onto Tuesday, Japan’s balance of payments and trade balance figures for June will be out in early morning. Then Germany’s June trade balance, current account, export and import stats are due. France will also report its June trade balance and current account figures. Over in the US, there is the NFIB small business optimism index for July. Turning to Wednesday, China’s CPI and PPI for July will be out in early morning. Later on, Italy’s June industrial production figures and Bank of France’s business sentiment indicator are also due. Over in the US, there is the 2Q nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data, June wholesale inventories as well as the MBA mortgage applications. For Thursday, the June industrial production and manufacturing production figures for UK and France will be out. Further, June trade balance stats for UK and Italy are also due. Over in the US, we have the July PPI data, the monthly budget statement as well as the initial jobless claims and continuing claims figures. On Friday, the final CPI figures for Germany, France and Italy will be released. Over in the US, CPI stats for July are also due. Onto other events, today starts with speeches from the Fed’s Bullard and the Fed’s Kashkari, followed by the OPEC/Non-OPEC joint technical committee meeting in Abu Dhabi. Then on Thursday, the Fed’s Dudley will speak. Onto Friday, the Fed’s Kaplan and Fed’s Kashkari will also speak. Finally we'll still have earnings season continuing on both sides of the Atlantic but we're now past the peak.
Российский рынок продолжает пополняться новыми моделями, УАЗ намеревается покорить Китай, а ГИБДД занялась разработкой мобильных приложений. Эти и другие автомобильные события — в дайджесте РИА Новости. Восемьсот девяносто миллиардов на тачки За первые шесть месяцев 2017 года россияне потратили на н...
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It’s the Insurance Inspector (WSJ) Duterte Approves Free State College Fees Opposed by Budget Chief (BBG) Insurers Think They’ve Found the Perfect Patients for Profits (BBG) U.S. Heroin Trade Rooted in Mexico’s ‘Corridor of Death’ (WSJ) Keystone XL Foes Don’t Mention Climate in Red State Pipeline Battle (BBG) Uber Knowingly Leased Unsafe Cars to Singapore Drivers (WSJ) How America Dug a $375 Billion Pension Hole (BBG) Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Uber Technologies Inc managers in Singapore were aware of the Honda Motor Co recall when they bought more than 1,000 defective Vezels and rented them to drivers without the needed repairs, according to internal Uber emails and documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. on.wsj.com/2vnvpnN - Special Counsel Robert Mueller has impaneled a grand jury in Washington to investigate Russia's interference in the 2016 elections, a sign that his inquiry is growing in intensity and entering a new phase, according to people familiar with the matter. on.wsj.com/2vn76X8 - Andrew Hall, a legendary trader who made billions betting on oil's rise, confirmed that he is closing the main fund at the firm he founded, Astenbeck Capital Management LLC, after he misjudged the impact of a boom in U.S. production that upended the market. on.wsj.com/2vobwwO - Avon Products Inc pushed out Chief Executive Sheri McCoy after a disappointing five-year tenure during which she oversaw an overhaul of the storied cosmetics seller but ultimately failed to stop its years-long downward spiral. on.wsj.com/2vnoviw - Toyota Motor Corp and Mazda Motor Corp are expected to announce plans to build a $1.6 billion assembly plant in the United States, which would create 4,000 new jobs and be up and running by 2021, according to a person briefed on the plans. on.wsj.com/2vnkydu - West Virginia's Democratic Governor Jim Justice announced at a rally with U.S. President Donald Trump that he was switching parties to join the Republicans. on.wsj.com/2vns0Wb FT Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warned that persistent uncertainty over the UK's future relationship with the EU is holding back business investment and household spending, as the central bank cut its growth forecasts and left interest rates unchanged. Britain's environment secretary, Michael Gove, faced accusations of giving mixed messages about the future of UK fisheries after he spoke positively about the future potential for foreign vessels to fish in British waters. British Gas said that the cost of the British government's energy policies is now a bigger share of household electricity bills than wholesale prices. Georgia Gould, leader of Camden council in north London, has cast doubt on the usefulness of a new batch of fire safety tests ordered by the government, saying they have revealed nothing new. NYT - Federal prosecutors are investigating Kushner Companies, the real estate firm owned by the family of Jared Kushner over its use of a program that grants visas to wealthy overseas investors. The authorities are also looking into the role of Kushner's sister, Nicole Meyer. nyti.ms/2vnlIpm - Avon Products Inc said its chief executive, Sherilyn McCoy, would step down at the end of March as the door-to-door seller of beauty products has faced pressure from activist investors to reshape its management and speed up its turnaround. nyti.ms/2vnYUGa -The Trump administration said it would not delay an Obama-era regulation on smog-forming pollutants from smokestacks and tailpipes, reversing a decision that the EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt made in June, to put off an Oct. 1 deadline for designating which areas of the country met new ozone standards. nyti.ms/2vnQj6g -Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Kering SA, the owner of brands Gucci and Saint Laurent, said they had resolved their differences. Kering would withdraw a 2015 lawsuit charging that counterfeit goods had been sold from the Chinese e-commerce giant's website. nyti.ms/2vnogDW Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** The number of asylum claims in Quebec tripled in recent weeks from an average of 50 a day to 150, according to the province's Immigration Minister Kathleen Weil. The recent spike in claims has clogged short-term housing for new arrivals in Montreal, leading the province to open up to 600 beds in the Olympic Stadium. tgam.ca/2v5dDDr ** A Canadian deal to finance a Bombardier Inc jet for the controversial Gupta family of South Africa has cast a fresh spotlight on secrecy policies at the federal government's export credit agency. tgam.ca/2v4LNHk ** Toronto is considering fast-tracking the opening of three supervised drug-use sites and will ask some police officers to carry a life-saving antidote to fentanyl after a spate of deaths linked to tainted street drugs over the past week. tgam.ca/2v4SXLtNATIONAL POST ** BCE Inc's wireless division once more outshone its traditional wired business in financial results released on Thursday, but CEO George Cope said the company's most critical play this quarter was launching a new television product targeted at cord cutters and 'cord nevers.' bit.ly/2v5bUxF Britain The Times The Financial Conduct Authority has been warned that it is failing to give financial firms a clear idea of how to prepare for Brexit with fewer than a fifth of respondents to a survey saying it was doing a good job. bit.ly/2fcLcPK Bob Mackenzie, the former chairman of the AA Plc who was sacked for "gross misconduct", is funding the cost of his own hospital stay after the roadside assistance group cancelled his private medical coverage. bit.ly/2fcX5oU The Guardian Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has predicted that the financial sector could double in size to be 20 times as big as GDP within the next 25 years, but warned that the government must hold its nerve and resist pressure to water down regulation after Brexit. bit.ly/2uoqJJD Julius Baer Gruppe AG, a Swiss bank that accepts only customers with at least 2 million pounds ($2.63 million) of assets, is defying Brexit with plans to expand in the United Kingdom through new offices in Manchester, Leeds, and Glasgow. bit.ly/2v1BoOl The Telegraph The government must set out a detailed vision for a Brexit "transitional" period or risk losing the confidence of business that it can successfully manage to move to a new relationship with the European Union, the Institute of Directors warns Friday. bit.ly/2u92ZxX Aviva Plz's boss has batted off the suggestion that he might relinquish the chief executive job anytime soon as the insurer he once compared to a "couch potato" continues to spring back to life. bit.ly/2vxlPiH Sky News OnTheMarket, the online property portal fighting a fierce battle with rivals Zoopla and Rightmove Plc, is to lift the veil on secret plans to demutualise and list its shares in a bumper stock market flotation. bit.ly/2wbi3IS Investor Forum, a shareholder body whose members manage assets worth 14 trillion pounds, has waded into the multi-billion pound takeover of Worldpay Group Plc, the FTSE-100 payments group. The Independent The Unite union has announced a further two-week strike by British Airways staff working for the Mixed Fleet operation at Heathrow. It will begin on Aug. 16, immediately after the current stoppage ends, and continue to Aug. 30. ind.pn/2u7ekyy
It took stocks only a few minute to "price in" the latest political shock out of Washington, and as of this morning Emini futures no longer care that Mueller has a grand jury, trading 0.08% in the green with European stocks and Asian shares all little changed as investors await the looming July jobs report, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring from 222K to 180K but will have little impact on either the Fed's thinking or the market. Stocks, gold and most metals headed for a fourth week of gains on Friday, as fresh political woes for U.S. President Donald Trump and the prospect of a trade war with China kept the dollar depressed ahead of payrolls. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index inched lower for a third day, hovering near the weakest in 15 months, while cable rose to $1.3154, the euro hit a fresh two-and-a-half year high against the dollar and oil retreated. Global stocks were just barely in the green this morning with the MSCI All-Country World Index rising less than 0.05%. In key overnight macro moves, the Aussie dollar gained against the greenback despite RBA warnings about currency’s strength, while the USD/JPY fell as much as 0.2% to 109.85, the weakest since June 15, before paring decline to 110.03. In Asia, Japan’s Topix index slid 0.2% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.3%. South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.5 percent after sliding 1.7 percent on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei ended the week little changed, dropping 0.4 percent on Friday as a stronger yen weighed. Wall Street was expected to start marginally higher, having seen the Dow index break through 22,000 points this week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was little changed, while the Shanghai Composite Index swung between gains and losses. European markets got off to an underwhelming start, with Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 all lower. The FTSE was on course for its best week in two months, boosted by the latest tumble in the pound. The Stoxx 600 traded sideways as Swiss Re AG’s profit drop weighed on insurers. The rising Euro, which ING now expects to rise as high as 1.20 in the next 4 weeks, has capped Stoxx gains in recent months, on concerns it will pressure exporter earnings. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained less than 0.05 percent to the highest in more than a week. Germany’s DAX Index jumped 0.1 percent. The dollar index, which has just recorded its worst run of monthly losses since early 2011, was 0.1 percent lower at 92.766 on the day and about 0.6 percent during a week in which it fell to a 15-month low of 92.548. "We think things are overdone in terms of negative sentiment around the dollar," said PineBridge Investments fund manager Hani Redha, quoted by Reuters. "Overall we think global growth is going to be quite solid but we think the leadership is going to change back towards the U.S.," he added, saying Trump was also likely to get at least some fiscal stimulus measures through in the coming months. As SocGen's Kit Juckes writes this morning, the US Treasury market is heading towards today's non-farm payroll data with 10s at 2.23%, in the bottom half of their 2.12-2.42 range. The RBA sees lower inflation thanks to the AUD's rise to date and a threat to growth from further appreciation, Japanese wages fell and even smoothed show the same lack of wage growth as we see everywhere, despite a tightening labour market. Just taking those three bits of information I get a now-familiar snapshot of the world. Anchored US rates and yields will make sure that capital goes on flowing out of dollars and into anything that's perceived as more interesting. Other central banks will grumble (at the very least) about the weaker dollar trend and in Japan, the need to reboot inflation expectations remains as clear as ever, the difficulty of doing so likewise, and the danger that anchored US yields drag USD/JPY down and is pretty clear too. Previewing today's payrolls report, the SocGen strategist writes that with consensus forecasts of +180k in NFP an 2.4% in average hourly earnings, "the BOJ, RBA and the ECB for that matter, will be hoping for an upside surprise. An NFP surprise would provide some relief, a huge upside surprise in wage growth would really help them a lot. That doesn't make it likely, sadly." WTI fell below $49, extending its weekly loss with the Baker Hughes rig count due later. "It was very natural on the technical side that we should see consolidation around the 200 day moving average," Torbjorn Kjus, chief oil economist at DNB Bank, told Bloomberg. Brent is trading below 200-day MA Friday after moving above that level last week and settling above the marker for past 2 sessions; WTI also below Friday In rates, Europe's 10-year benchmark government bond yield and U.S. equivalents were pinned near one-month lows of 0.45 and 2.23% respectively amid the U.S. political uncertainty. U.S. yields have been falling for most of 2017 as the President's travails have cooled expectations for growth and inflation. 10-year gilt yield +1bps to 1.16% after Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday. In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 0.8 percent to $48.66 a barrel, the lowest in a week. Gold was steady at $1,269 an ounce and set to score and modestly weekly rise, which will be its fourth in a row. Copper advanced 0.2 percent to $2.88 a pound. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.05% to 2,473 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.05% to 378.75 MSCI Asia up 0.01% to 160.92 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.2% to 529.07 Nikkei down 0.4% to 19,952.33 Topix down 0.2% to 1,631.45 Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 27,562.68 Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,262.08 Sensex down 0.04% to 32,225.85 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 5,720.58 Kospi up 0.4% to 2,395.45 EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.1880 USD/JPY: steady at 110.09 GBP/USD: +0.1% at 1.3154 German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.456% US 10-year yield +1bp to 2.23% Italian 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 1.697% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.468% Brent Futures down 0.8% to $51.62/bbl Gold spot up 0.06% to $1,269.40 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.75 Top Overnight News Payrolls May Show Stable Economy; Grand Jury Issues Russia Subpoenas; HNA Says It’s Not Raising Funds in N.Y. Toyota and Mazda to sell stakes to each other, worth about 50b yen each Special counsel Robert Mueller is using a federal grand jury in Washington to help collect information as he probes Russia’s meddling in the 2016 election and possible collusion by Trump campaign associates Pearson Plc made good on a pledge to cut costs, slashing 3,000 jobs and cutting its interim dividend to preserve cash as it works on a turnaround of its struggling education business Allianz SE and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board have agreed to buy a 20 percent stake in Spain’s Gas Natural SDG SA’s gas distribution business for 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) The world’s biggest pension fund posted its fourth-straight quarterly gain, as global stocks rose and a decline in the yen against both the dollar and the euro helped boost the value of its overseas investments Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.’s warning to investors that it may breach debt covenants if cash flow weakens triggered its biggest bond selloff on record “Passive investing is in danger of devouring capitalism,” billionaire Paul Singer wrote in his firm’s second-quarter letter dated July 27 BOE Is Said to Find Error Behind Spike in U.K. Mortgage Arrears Rosneft Aids Venezuela’s State Oil Producer With Prepayment Icahn-Backed Change in Biofuel Rule Is Said to Near EPA Rebuff McDonald’s Japan July Sales Helped by Desserts, Hawaiian Burgers Teva Debt Sells Off After Warning May Breach Covenants Asian equity markets traded mixed, with the region indecisive ahead of key risk NFP data and after a lacklustre close in US where energy underperformed and the Russian probe seemed to have stepped up a notch. This saw early losses in ASX 200 (-0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%), with financials the underperformer in Australia after big 4 bank CBA was accused of breaches to anti-money laundering and counter¬terrorism regulations. Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (+0.1%) were slightly positive after the PBoC upped its daily liquidity operations, although upside was capped as this still amounted to a net weekly liquidity drain. RBA Statement on Monetary Policy states recent AUD rise had modest effect on GDP and inflation forecast. Says: Holding policy steady consistent with growth and inflation target. Recent increase in AUD has modest dampening effect on economy. Further strength in AUD would reduce economic growth and inflation. RBA maintains inflation forecast for 2017 and 2018 at between 1.5%-2.5% for both, 2019 forecast kept at 2.0%-3.0%. Lowers GDP forecast for 2017 to 2.0%-3.0% from 2.5%-3.5%, 2018 forecast maintained at 2.75%-3.75%, while 2019 forecast was increased to 3.0%-4.0%. Top Asian News China Hedge Fund Says Most ‘Violent’ Deleveraging Phase Over China Millionaires in Jeans Spur Wealth Manager Push Abroad Abe’s New Cabinet Shows Continuity in Japanese Economic Policy Summit Announces $1 Billion LNG-to-Power Project in Bangladesh Indonesia Sees Room to Ease If Inflation, Forex Rate Manageable JT to Buy Karyadibya Mahardhika for $1b Enterprise Value China Bulls’ Resolve Tested as Stocks Struggle to Pass Key Level Indonesia Says Google Agrees to Monitor Negative YouTube Content Hong Kong Stock Rally Buoyed by Bullish Profit Projections The majority of EU bourses have come off worst levels, and now trade in marginal green territory. The biggest movers throughout the European morning have been UK Home Building names, with an overnight article from "PropertyWeek" circulating, which states that the Government is reviewing its 'Help to Buy' Scheme. Taylor Wimpey (TW LN) and Perisimmon (PSN LN) shares were both down over 5% for the session, as the former generated 45% of its sales from the Scheme. Later reports from a UK government spokesperson stated that it is incorrect to infer that the government are set to cancel the help to buy scheme, did see many of the loses retraced. NFP Friday trade has been evident in fixed income. markets today, with the 1 Oy bund holding its slim range. Underperformance has been seen in peripherals, with delays relaying slight profit taking in BTPs and Bonos. Corporate issuance once again came into fruition today, with Verizon printing AUD 2.2bn "kangaroo" bond, with BAT mandating banks for a multi-currency and multi-tranch bond deal. Top European News BOE Says Companies Need Clarity as Brexit Crimps Investment German Factory Orders Jump in Sign of Robust Economic Growth Allianz Buys LV= Unit in Deal Valued at as Much as $1.3 Billion RBS’s Investment Bank Drives Second-Quarter Profit Beat Constellium Is Said to Weigh Options After Takeover Interest Swiss Re Drops as Earnings Succumb to Market-Pricing Pressure U.K. Housebuilders Fall After Reports of ’Help to Buy’ Review BOE Is Said to Find Error Behind Spike in U.K. Mortgage Arrears Rosneft Aids Venezuela’s State Oil Producer With Prepayment In currencies, GBP has seen the majority of volatility this morning as EUR/GBP and GBP/USD both briefly broke out of the post EU trading range. Elsewhere, overnight volatility was seen in AUD, following the release of the RBA's statement of Monetary Policy, with no fears of an overvalued currency, AUD/USD begun to gain some bullish pressure, we have continued to see buying following the bounce of August's low, with bulls now looking to retest 0.80. USD & CAD will both await their jobs reports due at 13.30BST. However, it is worth noting the greenback did once again see concerning news as political tensions continue with US Special Counsel Mueller empanelling a Washington Grand Jury in Russia probe. In commodities, Asian oil demand has been seen to shift back to the Middle East and Russia in Q4 following the recent rise in Brent. Elsewhere, OPEC has delivered a record high adherence to its oil cut in 2017, struggles do remain with Iraq and the UAE yet to show how they can meet their targets. Trade yesterday saw the USD 50.00/bbl level hold once again and the rejection has leaked into trade today, with WTI now trading around USD 48.80. Precious metals all trade in marginal positive territory, likely abiding to the risk tone following the recent acceleration in the US Russian probe. Looking at the day ahead, Friday is relatively quiet day for data in both Asia and Europe with only German factory orders data for June due and Italy’s retail sales for June. The US will be in greater focus as the July nonfarm payrolls number is due (180k expected) along with other labor market data. Alongside that, we will also get the trade balance reading for June. Onto other events, the Baker Hughes US rig count will also be out. Notable US companies reporting include: Cigna, Berkshire Hathaway and CBOE. Notable European companies reporting include: Allianz, Swiss Re and Erste Group. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 180,000, prior 222,000; Change in Private Payrolls, est. 180,000, prior 187,000 Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 5,000, prior 1,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.4% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%; Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.4%, prior 2.5% Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 62.8% Underemployment Rate, prior 8.6% 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $44.5b deficit, prior $46.5b deficit DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Hello Payrolls Friday. On a day we pore over how many people have been employed and how much they've been paid in the US, I'm still trying to come to terms with the €222 million buy out clause activated for the transfer of Brazilian Neymar from Barcelona to PSG. This is broadly equivalent to the annual GDP of the equatorial Marshall Islands (population over 53k) which is around the 190th biggest nation in the world. If you include his wages over a 5 year contract you can nearly double this and you get close to the annual GDP of Tonga - home to over 100k people. The Marshall Islands aren't a hot bed of economic activity although I did note that their income tax rates are 8% and 12% and corporation tax is at 3%. Anyone coming with me to set up a company? Although make sure you can afford your current buy-out first though. Back to US jobs and consensus expectations are for a 180k gain (222k previous) today. Our US economists project a more optimistic figure of 200k for headline and private payrolls, which they expect to be sufficient to lower the unemployment rate a tenth to 4.3%. However, they note that the July ADP survey and the employment subcomponents of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISMs add some downside risks to their forecast as their payrolls model (which uses the first reported values of ADP and the ISM composite employment reading) projects private payroll gains of around 165k. Counterbalancing this risk however is the fact that private payrolls have recently fallen short of the levels implied by ADP and the ISMs, and payrolls (including revisions) have accelerated in the past following similar misses. On other detail aspects of the report, they expect that hours worked should remain steady at 34.5 along with a 0.3% gain in average hourly earnings (AHEs), which would lower the YoY growth rate of the series to 2.4% (with a risk of rounding up and remaining at 2.5%). However, as long as there is no material surprise in either direction, they do not expect this month's AHEs to meaningfully impact policymakers' intermediate-term inflation expectations. Finally, the team notes that even if July payrolls fall below their forecast, Amazon's hiring spree this month could result in an upside surprise in next month’s (August) data, which will likely factor more prominently into the Fed's decision process going into the September 20 meeting. So another report where the market will look for any life in inflation and a reason for bonds to sell-off. This report comes on the back of a sizeable bond rally yesterday which seemed to be kickstarted by a relatively downbeat outlook from Mr Carney on a day the BoE cut their growth and wages forecast. Before we review this it's worth highlighting that the Wall Street Journal reported 30 minutes before the US close that Special Counsel Robert Mueller was said to have impaneled a grand jury in the ongoing Russia probe. It led to a small spike lower in risk (see below) into the close and it's another cloud for the Trump presidency to contend with. Back to the BoE. As widely expected, the Bank left rates steady at 0.25% with the number of dissent votes declining from three to two, due to Kristin Forbes’ departure. The Bank reiterated future policy may need to be tightened slightly more than the current market yield curve implies (the first hike is priced in 2H18), but DB’s Mark Wall notes that Governor Carney made no attempt during the press conference to re-price dovish market expectations for this year. In Carney’s opinion, the UK was still experiencing exceptional circumstances ‘and would do so for some time’, with Brexit-related risks to the forefront. The bank has also cut its economic growth projections to 1.7% in 2017 (vs. 1.9% previous) and 1.6% in 2018 (vs. 1.7% previous). Looking ahead, with two new members on the MPC as of the September meeting, our team think it will be difficult for the hawks to gain a majority on the MPC without the support of the Governor. So our team continues to expect the BoE to NOT tighten monetary policy until Brexit related uncertainty has been sufficiently reduced. Post the BOE release, Gilt yields dropped ~5bps in 10 mins of trading and continued to fall to close 9bps lower for the day. The more dovish rates outlook and cautious comments from Carney had a similar impact across most government bond markets with Gilts (2Y: -6bp; 10Y: -9bps), USTs (2Y: -2bps; 10Y: -5bps) and German bunds (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: -3bps) yields mostly notably lower. Elsewhere changes were a bit more modest with Italian BTPs (2Y: unch; 10Y: -2bps) and OATs (2Y: +1; 10Y: -3bp). Turning to currencies there was a fair bit of intraday activity for Sterling after the meeting. It traded as high as 1.1202 in the morning session against the Euro, but then fell to as low as 1.1052 in the hours after the BoE announcement, before closing at 1.1069 for the day (-0.7% for the day). Sterling/USD also had similar intraday trends, before closing down -0.6% for the day. For other currencies, the USD dollar index dipped 0.2%, partly due to the softer ISM non-manufacturing data and the Euro/USD edged 0.1% higher. In commodities, WTI oil fell 1.3% as investors weighed up reports of rising US production against a decline in crude stockpiles. Elsewhere, precious metals were slightly up (Gold +0.1%, Silver +0.2%), copper was flat, but aluminium fell 0.8%. Onto equities, the S&P also had its share of intraday action. The index was trading in a tight range for most of the day, but then fell ~0.3% post the Mueller news and closed -0.2% down for the day. The VIX also responded, rising ~+5.5% around that time to 10.5 but closed a bit lower at 10.44. Elsewhere, the Dow edged up ~+0.1%, breaking another fresh all-time high for the 7th consecutive day. Within the S&P, modest gains in the industrials and utilities sectors were more than offset by losses in energy (-1.3%) and materials (-0.7%). European markets broadly strengthened, the Stoxx 600 edged up 0.1%, the FTSE 100 up 0.9% (helped by the fx move) and the CAC (+0.5%), but the DAX fell 0.2%, impacted by Siemens (-3%). Away from the markets, as noted earlier, the WSJ has reported that Special Counsel Mueller has impaneled a grand jury as part of his probe into Russia’s interference in the US election and possible ties with President Trump’s campaign. A grand jury suggests that the probe has gone beyond investigating what might have happened, to potentially charging people with crimes. Mueller’s office has declined to comment. However, a special counsel to the president (Ty Cobb) added later that he wasn’t aware that Mueller was using a grand jury, but also acknowledged that “…grand jury matters are typically secret…". Elsewhere, US senators have introduced two bipartisan bills aimed at protecting Mueller on concerns that Mr Trump may look to dismiss him. We shall no doubt see more news flow on this in the coming weeks. This morning in Asia, markets are mixed but little changed. The Nikkei is -0.4%, the Kospi recovering slightly (+0.2%) after yesterday’s -1.7% fall, with the Hang Seng flat and China slightly higher on balance. Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, data was in line to slightly soft. The ISM nonmanufacturing composite for July was below expectations at 53.9 (vs. 56.9 expected; 57.4 previous), which is the lowest level since a similar downward spike in August last year. Digging into the details, new orders index fell 5.4pt to 55.1 and the employment index fell 2.2pt to 53.6. However, even after factoring in the employment indices from the twin ISM reports together, DB’s economist believes the employment indicators are still consistent with decent payrolls growth (~200k per month). Elsewhere, factory orders for June was in line at 3%, initial jobless claims for July was slightly lower than expectations at 240k (vs. 243k) and continuing claims was at 1,968k (vs. 1,958k expected). The final durable goods order stat for June was reported higher at 6.4% (vs. 0% expected). Onto Europe and the June Eurozone retail sales were higher than expectations at 0.5% mom (vs. 0% expected) and 3.1% yoy (vs. 2.5% expected), while UK’s Markit services and composite PMI were also a tad higher than expectations at 53.8 (vs. 53.6) and 54.1 (vs. 53.8) respectively. Elsewhere, the final July services and composite PMI for the Eurozone (-0.1pt vs flash composite), France (-0.1pt) and Germany (-0.4pt) were also released and was slightly lower than the flash PMIs. Looking at the day ahead, Friday is relatively quiet day for data in both Asia and Europe with only German factory orders data for June due (0.5% mom, 4.4% yoy expected) and Italy’s retail sales for June (0.1% mom expected). The US will be in greater focus as the July nonfarm payrolls number is due (180k expected, DB 200k) along with other labour market data. Alongside that, we will also get the trade balance reading for June. Onto other events, the Baker Hughes US rig count will also be out. Notable US companies reporting include: Cigna, Berkshire Hathaway and CBOE. Notable European companies reporting include: Allianz, Swiss Re and Erste Group.
It was hard to find a bright spot for auto investors in July's auto sales figures released earlier today with GM down 15% YoY, Ford off 7% and Chrysler down 11%. The companies blamed the drops on lower fleet sales but GM’s retail sales also fell 14.4% from July 2016. Meanwhile, Ford and Fiat Chrysler retail sales had single-digit declines, and their fleet sales fell 26% and 35%, respectively. Here's a recap of how each of the largest OEM's made out in July: GM: Three of GM's four brands posted double-digit sales declines in July with Chevrolet down 15%, Cadillac down 22% and Buick plunging 31%. While GM blamed weak fleet sales for their abysmal month, their retail sales declined 14% as well. The Chevy Spark minicar withered, falling 81.9% to 764 units for the month, while the Chevy Sonic subcompact car declined 47.3% to 2,552. Ford: Ford retail sales fell 1% while fleet sales declined 26%. Ford's flagship brand fell 8%, while the luxury Lincoln brand declined 2.5%. Car sales were off 19%, including a 13% decline for the Ford Fiesta subcompact and a 42% decline for the Fusion mid-size car. Fiat Chrysler: All of Chrysler's major brands, except Ram, were down double digits. Jeep was down 12%, Chrysler 30%, Dodge 12% and Fiat 18%. Ram sales were flat. Retail sales were down 6%, while fleet sales were down 35%. Toyota: The Japanese automaker soared past expectations for a surprise sales gain. The company's flagship Toyota brand and luxury Lexus brand were each up 3.6%. With the strong sales performance, Toyota surpassed Ford in July as the nation's second-largest automaker for the month, behind only GM. Toyota's passenger cars were weak, down 12% for the month, while sales of crossovers, pickups and SUVs rose 17%. Despite the extreme declines at the domestic OEM's, the overall SAAR continued to hover around 17mm units, reaffirming, at least for now, Ford's assertion that sales will 'plateau' at current levels. That said, overall inventory levels remain elevated despite the fact that incentive spending set a new record of $3,876 per unit in the month of July. Per J.D. Power: Average incentive spending per unit to date in July is $3,876 per unit, a record for July, and surpassing the previous high for the month of $3,597, set in July 2016. Spending on trucks and SUVs is $3,700, up $194 from last year. Spending on cars is $4,174, up $436. Incentives as a percentage of MSRP are at 10.8% so far in July, exceeding the 10% level for 12th time in the past 13 months Meanwhile, GM's inventory continues to be the most bloated of all the OEMs with 939,831 cars still parked in dealer lots all across the country...equal to 104 days of supply. Of course, as silly as it may seem, some analysts still found a way to be upbeat about the industry. Per Detroit News: “The fundamentals in the industry are still very, very strong,” said Kelley Blue Book analyst Alec Gutierrez. Big-picture indicators like fuel prices, employment levels within the industry and customer satisfaction are all at healthy leavels. At a gathering of auto officials in Traverse City on Tuesday, several analysts delivered a similar message on the state of the industry: “The sky is not falling.” Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of global forecasting for LMC Automotive, said despite sales numbers out of North America, there are reasons for optimism overall. “Transaction prices are up, that’s a very positive thing…,” he said. “We’re looking at over $31,000 on average – up over a percent.” But Ford and GM shareholders are starting to lose faith... ...as are investors in the suppliers. Oh well, we're sure this is just a temporary pause...the second half is sure to be better.
S&P futures rose 0.1% on the last trading day of the month, trailing European and Asian markets boosted by China's July Mfg. PMI, which despite declining from from 51.7 to 51.4, and missing expecations of 51.5, saw the construction index rise to its highest level since December 13, sending Chinese iron ore futures surging and the European commodity sector broadly higher. DCE Iron ore futures +6.43% pic.twitter.com/z7TDGWHOkQ — Sunchartist (@Sunchartist) July 31, 2017 In equities, the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced 0.1%, and the MSCI Emerging Market Index increased 0.3%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan reversed early losses to rise 0.25%. Stocks have rebounding from Friday’s selloff spurred by raw-material producers on "optimism the global economy is gathering momentum" amid "evidence points to resilient global growth, with investors assessing numbers from the world’s top three economies" according to Bloomberg. As noted above, China’s official factory gauge showed continued expansion in June, even as it slipped amid government efforts to curb financial risks. Japan’s industrial output expanded in June, while data Friday showed the U.S. economy accelerating in the second quarter. Investors remained wary after North Korea conducted a missile test late on Friday that it said proved its ability to strike the U.S. mainland. The U.S. responded by flying two bombers over the Korean peninsula on Sunday. But early jitters dissipated somewhat, with the Korean won reversing losses. The dollar was down 0.2 percent at 1,120.7 won, after jumping almost 0.7% on Friday. South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.2%. "The geopolitical overhang will likely keep topside moves in check early in the week as the disorganized U.S. and China policy towards North Korea is not helping matters," Stephen Innes, head of Asia-Pacific trading at OANDA, wrote in a note. In Europe, Anglo American, Rio Tinto Plc and BHP Billiton helped underpin the advance in the Stoxx Euro 600 Index as miners also propelled the MSCI All Country World Index toward a ninth month of gains. HSBC shares jumped as much as 3.7% to the highest since November 2014 on a $2 billion buyback as profit rose. Shares have climbed 26% this year, with the lender accounting for 13% of Hang Seng Index’s 24% YTD gain, most after Tencent. Despite today's 0.3% gain, the Stoxx 600 is flat for the month of July, in contrast with a gain of 2% for S&P 500 over the same period, according to Bloomberg. European stocks have been hurt by a strengthening euro which has fueled concerns for European earnings. “Global expansion dynamics are well underway,” analysts at Candriam Investors Group wrote in a report. “The European recovery is well on track and is leading to above-trend growth in 2017-18. This has led us to increase our profit earnings expectations for euro-zone equities. The economic news flow is starting to become more supportive in the U.S., while emerging markets are benefiting from a good economic momentum.” There is however, a latent risk: as Citi notes, political headlines may manifest themselves "the proposed healthcare bill is on life-support, tax reform is back in the news (though not yet on the table), and we await further reaction from the Trump administration to the diplomatic spat with Russia and to North Korea’s latest missile test – which, according to Korean newswires, may be imminently followed by another launch." A quick look at the FX book shows the Canadian dollar is biggest loser within G-10, while the yen and euro are mixed. Sovereign yields are near unchanged with the T-note yield at 2.29%. Asian stocks are broadly higher led by Australia and China. Chinese shares rose 0.6%, buoyed by several leading companies' forecasts for strong mid-year earnings. The blue-chip index and the Shanghai Composite both rose 0.6 percent. Japan’s Topix index closed 0.2 percent lower after swinging between gains and losses. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 1.1 percent. HSBC was among the biggest contributors to the advance (more below). West Texas crude traded above $50 a barrel for the first time since May, while copper rose to a two-year high and iron ore surged. In the Asian session, the dollar index climbed with gains tempered by tensions over the weekend between U.S. and Russia, as wells as North Korea. In Europe, Euro, EGBs largely unchanged as euro area July inflation matches estimates. Pound slips against dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged higher, paring its fifth straight month of declines, as investors prepare for a data-heavy week that will culminate with the release of non-farm payrolls data for July, while Apple, Pfizer, Tesla and Berkshire Hathaway will report earnings. The euro began the week on a soft note as investors waited for second-quarter growth data due Tuesday. The Swiss franc was little changed against the euro, after posting its biggest weekly decline in more than two years; last week’s selloff was triggered by a host of factors, including stop losses and talk of initial public offer-related flows. The ruble slid 1.2% to 60.2550 per dollar, falling for a third day and the most among emerging-market currencies amid heightened geopolitical risks after Russia ordered expulsion of U.S. diplomats. Russian government bonds fell, driving the 10-year yield higher by 9bps. Also overnight, the BOJ maintained its govt bond purchase plans for August unchanged from July. Below are Bloomberg's comparisons between planned purchase ranges for August against those for July and the amounts BOJ offered to buy at the last operations: 1-to-3 years: 200b-300b yen vs 200b-300b yen for July, 280b yen on July 28 3-to-5 years: 250b-350b yen vs 250b-350b yen for July, 330b yen on July 28 5-to-10 years: 350b-550b yen vs 350b-550b yen for July, 470b yen July 28 10- to-25 years: 150b-250b yen vs 150b-250b yen for July, 200b yen on July 26 More than 25 years: 50b-150b yen vs 50b-150b yen for July, 100b yen on July 26 Up to 1 year: 50b-150b yen vs 50b-150b yen for July, 100b yen on July 26 U.S. crude futures climbed 0.3 percent to $49.87 a barrel, after earlier hitting $50.06, their first foray above $50 in two months. Brent crude advanced 0.5 percent to $52.78, adding to Friday's 2 percent surge. Gold was little changed at $1,268.26 an ounce, after earlier climbing to its highest since June 14. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced less than one basis point to 2.29%. Germany’s 10-year yield climbed one basis point. Britain’s 10-year yield fell less than one basis point. Copper climbed 1.1 percent to $2.91 a pound, the highest in more than two years. Zinc gained 1.1 percent, nickel 0.7 percent and tin 1 percent Gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,266.98 an ounce after rising to $1,271.23, the highest since June 14. Gold remains on course for its biggest monthly advance since Feb., with prices trading near highest level in more than six weeks, as speculation that Federal Reserve will go slow on raising interest rates hurts dollar. Bullion for immediate delivery +2.2% this month, most since Feb.’s +3.1%. “U.S. GDP data was weaker than expected and inflation remains subdued, which could damp Fed rate hike expectations,” Guotai Junan Futures says in note. “Gold has scope to rise further in the near term.” Markets are awaiting speeches by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President John Williams on Tuesday, for further insight into whether the central bank has turned more dovish in light of recently muted inflation. "It is easy for uncertainty to increase about the Fed's ability to raise rates next year if inflation remains low. We could see the dollar head below 110.00 yen under such circumstances," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior forex strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. The slew of corporate earnings continues. Apple Inc., Tesla Inc., Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. are all set to unveil results this week. Pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity is expected later on Monday, along with earnings reports from Stifel Financial, Loews and others. Overnight Bulletin Summary from RanSquawk European equities trade higher with outperformance in the FSTE (+0.4%) amid gains in HSBC USD-index has regained some ground against majors, while EUR inflation data saw the headline meet expectations Looking ahead, highlights include Chicago PMI and Pending Home Sales Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.11% to 2,473.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 379.46 MXAP up 0.3% to 160.20 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 529.01 Nikkei down 0.2% to 19,925.18 Topix down 0.2% to 1,618.61 Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 27,323.99 Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,273.03 Sensex up 0.5% to 32,479.54 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,720.59 Kospi up 0.07% to 2,402.71 US 10Y yield +0.35bps to 2.29% German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.541% Euro down 0.2% to 1.1726 per US$ Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 1.829% Spanish 10Y yield fell 3.1 bps to 1.494% Brent Futures up 0.2% to $52.61/bbl WTI up 0.2% to 49.80/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,266.39 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 93.51 Top Overnight News Inflation in the euro area remained well below the European Central Bank’s goal as policy makers prepare to discuss unwinding stimulus. After the collapse of Obamacare repeal, Republicans may have to choose between pursuing another health bill or pushing through a tax overhaul this year, because there’s almost certainly not enough time to do both. So how much did it end up taking after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi memorably said five years ago he’d do “whatever it takes” to save the euro? About 1.2 trillion euros. The Saudi-led alliance that severed ties with Qatar reinstated a list of 13 demands that must be met before talks to resolve the eight-week crisis could start, just as as fresh economic data highlighted the impact of the unprecedented boycott on the Gulf nation. Trump’s New Chief Has One Key Asset: Ivanka and Kushner’s Nod Trump Hints Ending Subsidies to Insurance Cos if No Bill Passed SoftBank Is Said to Plan Making Direct Offer for Charter; Charter Says Has No Interest in Acquiring Sprint India Needs 2,100 Planes Worth $290b in 20 Years, Boeing Says Astra’s Imfinzi Granted FDA Breakthrough Therapy in Lung Cancer J&J Granted FDA Orphan Drug Status for Bedaquiline Ford Takes Action to Help Address Concerns of First Responders Five Banks Reach $111.2m Total Pact Over FX case, Law Firm Says Lockheed Lands $3.69B Advance to Build 50 F-35s for Int’l Buyers Alaska Air Says Hacker Accessed Virgin America Worker Passwords Koch Network Readies Push for Lower Taxes After Border Tax Kill Raytheon’s Troubled GPS III Ground Control Network Slips Again Asia equity markets traded mixed ahead of this week's key risk events and as participants digested Chinese Manufacturing PMI and further provocation from North Korea. ASX 200 (+0.4%) was underpinned by commodity names amid strength in the metals complex coupled with WTI crude's brief reclaim of USD 50/bbl to the upside, while Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was dampened by broad-based JPY strength. Geopolitical concerns pressured the KOSPI (-0.3%) following another North Korean missile test on Friday which it claimed was capable of striking mainland US, while both Hang Seng (+1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were positive despite Official Chinese Manufacturing PMI data missing estimates, as the Construction sub-index rose to its highest since December 2013. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat and failed to benefit from the cautious risk tone in Japan, with demand subdued following a lacklustre BoJ Rinban announcement valued at just only JPY 325b1n of JGBs. PBoC injected CNY 160 bin 7-day reverse repos and CNY 80bln 14-day reverse repos. Chinese Official Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prey. 51.7). Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 54.5 (Prey. 54.90) Top Asian News China Is Said to Ask Waldorf Owner Anbang to Sell Assets Abroad BOJ Keeps August Bond Purchase Ranges Unchanged From July Biggest Indian Bank Surges as Deposit Rate Cut May Boost Profit Sumitomo Mitsui 1Q Net Income Rises 31% to 241.5b Yen SMFG Reports 1st Qtr Group Earnings Result Panasonic Reports 1st Qtr Group Earnings Result (IFRS) Tian Guoli Is Said to Be Named China Construction Bank Chairman European bourses are higher across the board this morning led through material names, following the Chinese Mfg. PMI data, in which the construction index rose to its highest level since Dec'13. Firm earnings and an announcement to plan a USD 2bln share buyback from Europe's largest bank, HSBC (+3%), has lifted financial names higher this morning with support for health care names also seen in the wake of earnings from Sanofi (+1.8%) whereby the Co. also raised their guidance. A cautious start was initially seen for German paper this morning ahead of this morning's Eurozone CPI data with prices relatively unreactive to the release which saw the headline match expectations with core slightly firmer than anticipated. Peripheral debt outperforming its German counterpart with the BTPSs and Bonos tighter by 3bps. Some suggest BTPs are set to benefit from large month-end extensions. Top European News U.K. Consumer Borrowing Cools After Bank of England Warning HSBC Rises as Second Quarter of Growth Backs Turnaround Story Putin Says Hopes Retaliation Ends Once 755 U.S. Staff Ousted Rolls- Royce Shares Fall; Is Said to Caution on Cash Flow to FT Greece’s Road to Bailout Exit: 140 Reforms Down, More to Go U.K. Takes Two Steps Forward, One Step Back on Brexit Plan Italian Unemployment Declines; Jobs Growth Led by Temporary Work In currencies, the USD-index begins the week slightly firmer, rising 0.1% overnight to pull off 15-months lows reached last week amid a raft of soft US data. USDCAD has been the notable mover with bargain hunting the likely catalyst, given Friday's 1% decline. Major support lies around 1.2400 with the pair testing stalling at 1.2410¬20 multiple times last week. The antipodeans (AUD,NZD) will be in focus this week, both currencies slightly tailing off their 2Y highs. Last week, AUD reached the highest level since May'15 at 0.8066, however the currency has pulled off somewhat with the Aussie back below 0.80. Focus will be on the RBA statement, in which the central bank may sharpen their language on the AUD to temper its recent surge. NZD hovers above 0.75 with participants likely to keep an eye for latest GDT auction and jobs data which will guide price action. Cable: Another central bank to announce their latest decision will be the BoE who will announce their latest economic projections. It is likely the central bank will keep rates unchanged with inflation cooling to 2.6% in June and growth remaining tepid, this has subsequently reduced speculation over a near term rate rise. Since the last meeting, GBP has risen over 3% with the currency now above 1.31. Resistance ahead at 1.3150-60 with additional offers situated at 1.32 (option barrier level). In commodities, Brent and WTI futures up a nudge this morning, the latter met resistance at USD 50. Over the weekend, Shell's Pernis oil refinery had been forced to close after reports of a fire at the 404k bpd refinery. Also, source reports indicate the US could announce oil related sanctions on Venezuela as soon as today in a response to Sunday's election. Industrial metals supported overnight from the Chinese PMI data, which saw Dalian iron ore futures hitting limit up in Asia, while steel rebar soared to a 3Y high. US could announce oil related sanctions on Venezuela as soon as today in a response to Sunday's election, according to sources. Sources added that US is considering banning sales of US oil and refined products to Venezuela, but are not expected to include a ban on Venezuelan oil shipments to the US. Looking at today's session, we will get the Chicago PMI number (60 expected; 65.7 previous), the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity reading (13 expected; 15 previous) for July and June pending home sales (1% expected). US Event Calendar 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 60, prior 65.7 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -0.8%; NSA YoY, prior 0.5% 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 13, prior 15 DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Welcome to the last day of July and the end of one life and start of a new one split between work and childcare, with nothing much in between. It’s likely that August will see a barbell of excitement with decent activity at either end but with a notable slowdown in the middle. This week we see the monthly PMIs/ISMs over the next couple of days which are a crucial barometer on realtime growth momentum, the BoE on Thursday (probably a lower key event after recent inflation numbers) and then payrolls on Friday which is always fun! Then a likely lull for 2-3 weeks before the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 24-26th with guest star Mr Draghi present for the first time since he attended and strongly hinted at QE three years ago. Will he tee-up further autumnal tapering and create some bond volatility? We saw a little bit of bond vol on Friday after stronger German CPI (HICP 1.5% yoy vs 1.4% expected) saw 10 year Bunds climb from 0.53% to 0.58% in the morning session where they stayed until a slightly weaker than expected US Q2 GDP print (2.6% vs 2.7% annualised QoQ expected) helped see them reverse course again to close at 0.54%. The US GDP print still represented a significant pick up from Q1 growth but that was revised down from 1.4% to 1.2%. The growth rebound was bolstered by strong Q2 consumer spending data that was in line with expectations at +2.8% SAAR (vs. +1.9% previous). Later in the day we got the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for July which was revised marginally higher from 93.2 to 93.4. This morning, China’s July manufacturing PMIs were a tad softer than expectations at 51.4 (vs. 51.5 expected; 51.7 previous), partly due to adverse weather conditions such as high temperatures in parts of China and floods in others as well as routine maintenance in some enterprises. There was also a small fall in the non-manufacturing PMI to 54.5 (54.9 previous). Focus will turn to the extent of economic growth in 2H, as China’s policy makers had previously indicated a preference for slower credit growth. Elsewhere, Japan’s industrial production for June beat expectations at 1.6% mom (vs. 1.5% expected; -3.6% previous). This morning in Asia, Chinese related bourses have all strengthened, with the Hang Seng (+0.7%) and the three Chinese markets up ~+0.6%. The Nikkei (-0.1%) and the Kospi (-0.3%) are both marginally weaker. Global equity markets were on the softer side on Friday as US equities (S&P -0.1%; NASDAQ -0.1%) mostly dipped on the slightly lower than expected Q2 growth. However the Dow bucked the global trend to climb 0.16% (supported by solid results from Chevron) and to another new record close - the third day in a row. Earlier European equities (STOXX -1.0%) struggled as the Euro strengthened on the day and auto makers continue to weaken. Tobacco stocks fell heavily on both sides of the Atlantic as news filtered through that the US Food & Drug Administration plans to look at regulating nicotine levels in cigarettes. Across the region, other markets also softened, with the DAX (-0.4%), FTSE 100 (-1%), CAC (-1%) and FTSE MIB (-0.9%). Over in government bonds, change in yields were modest for both US Treasuries (2Y: unch; 10Y: unch) and German Bunds (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: +1bp). Other sovereigns also had modest changes, although yields at 10Y slightly increased, while 2Y yields were marginally lower, with Gilts (2Y: -1bps; 10Y: +1bps), OATs (2Y: -1bps; 10Y: +1bps) and BTPs (2Y: +1bps; 10Y: +3bps). Turning to currency, the US dollar index fell 0.6% on the back of softer Q2 GDP data, but has recovered a little this morning. The Euro/USD strengthened 0.6% to a new 30-month high of 1.175 and Sterling/USD was also up 0.5% to a fresh 10 month high. Commodity markets saw another day of strong performance, with the energy segment broadly higher on the day as oil rose again (WTI +1.4%) to end the week up over 8%. Precious metals were broadly higher (Gold +0.8%; Silver +1.0%), while industrial metals were slightly lower (copper: -0.3%; Aluminium -0.4%). Agricultural commodities were broadly higher on the day as well. Away from the markets, voting efforts to repeal Obamacare have ended for now. Despite being health stricken, Senator McCain flew in last week to allow the senate to start the debate on healthcare legislation. In the end, it was McCain and two other senators that blocked the skinny repeal of Obamacare on a vote of 49-51 last Friday. Senate majority leader McConnell said “he’ll move on to other legislative business”, but Trump is not giving up, tweeting “…if a new HealthCare Bill is not approved quickly, BAILOUTS for Insurance Companies….will end very soon!” Trump is referring to ending subsidy payments to health insurance companies which help make insurance accessible to poorer Americans. The next payment is due 21 Aug and the Health and Humans Service Secretary Price has said on Sunday that “no decision (on the subsidy) has been made” either way. The North Korean situation will also be giving Mr Trump some headaches after the state fired off more intercontinental missiles over the weekend. China has condemned the latest tests, but fell short of more aggressive actions as desired by Mr Trump. Conversely, the US has sent bombers to joint military exercises with South Korea on Saturday and the US ambassador to the UN has said “the time for talk is over…China must decide whether it is finally willing to take this vital step (to resolve this situation)..” The Krw/USD was up 0.8% last Friday and is little changed this morning. Elsewhere, one thing appearing to head in a better direction for Mr Trump is tax reform. The Republicans are now more confident of overhauling the US tax code, with an outcome likely by the end of the year. This follows House speaker Ryan making a concession and ditching his controversial border adjusted tax last week, which was expected to raise $1trn of tax revenue over a decade. Obviously there is still a long way to go though. Taking a look now at some of the other data out on Friday, in Europe we got advanced reading of France Q2 GDP which increased marginally more than expected to +1.8% YoY (vs. +1.6% expected; 1.1% previous). We also got the preliminary July CPI readings for France which came in line with expectations at +0.8% YoY (-0.4% mom), while German inflation was higher than expected at 1.5% YoY (as discussed above) which was the main story of interest. We also saw a group of Eurozone confidence indicators for July where economic confidence (111.2 vs. 110.8 expected), services confidence (14.1 vs. 13.4 expected) and industrial confidence (4.5 vs. 4.4 expected) beat estimates although the business climate did disappoint (1.05 vs. 1.14 expected). The final reading for the July consumer confidence indicator also saw no revisions from the initial reading of -1.7 (as expected). Taking a look now at this week’s economic calendar. Today, we have German retail sales (+0.2% mom expected; +0.5% previous) and UK consumer credit data for June due, followed by the Eurozone unemployment rate (9.2% expected) for June and CPI estimate (+1.3% YoY expected) for July. In the US we will get the Chicago PMI number (60 expected; 65.7 previous), the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity reading (13 expected; 15 previous) for July and June pending home sales (1% expected). We kick off tomorrow in Asia where we will get the Caixin China manufacturing PMI reading and the final Nikkei Japan manufacturing PMI reading for July. In Europe we will get July data for the UK Nationwide House Price index, followed by a first look at the remaining manufacturing PMIs out of Europe and the final July manufacturing PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone as a whole. We will also get the advance estimate for Q2 Eurozone GDP. In the US we will get personal income and spending numbers for June and the ISM manufacturing PMI for July. Wednesday is a quiet day in both the Europe and the US with no real data of note outside of ADP and the Eurozone PPI. Thursday’s calendar will round out July PMI data for the week. In Asia we will get the July composite and services PMI numbers for China (Caixin) and Japan (Nikkei). In Europe we get the July PMIs with the final services and composite PMIs for France, Germany and the Eurozone due as well as a first look at some of the same data for the rest of Europe. Thereafter all focus should shift to the BoE policy meeting. Over in the US we should also get jobless claims data followed by the ISM non- manufacturing composite for July. Thereafter we will get factory orders data as well as the final readings for durable and capital goods orders for June. Friday is relatively quiet day for data in both Asia and Europe with only German factory orders data for June due. The US should be in greater focus as the July payrolls number is due along with other labour market data. Alongside that we will also get the trade balance reading for June. Onto other events, on Tuesday, trade ministers from the BRICS countries will meet in Shanghai. Then Wednesday, the Fed’s Mester will speak at a Community banking conference and the Fed’s Williams will speak in Las Vega’s on monetary
Жуткая авария произошла на 112 километре автодороги «Биробиджан-Амурзет» Ленинского района. По словам очевидцев, 25-летний местный житель, управляя автомобилем «Тойота Веросса», не справился с управлением и съехал в придорожный кювет.
В Академгородке Новосибирска столкнулись кроссовер BMW X3 и автомобиль Toyota Vitz, погиб один человек.
Пацаны, пишу продолжение моего отдыха в Абхазии. Начало здесь (часть 1). Итак, в пятницу утром в 8 часов выехали из Москвы на автомобиле- Тойота! Ехали по трассе М4. Дорога была более менее пустая. В воронежской области очень много платных участков. Для легкового транспорта минимальная цена.В общей сложности заплатили 1200 рублей. В Ростовской области и далее до Лазаревской (Краснодарский край) платных дорог не было. По пути останавливались два раза покушать в Понпончиковых точках питания. Это федеральная сеть питания. Цены дорогие. Чебурек -89 рублей, пончик -27 рублей. Чай- 300 грамм кипятка один пакетики 15 грамм сахара-57 рублей. Все это рассчитано на богатых смердов. Сливающие трейдеры даже и не суйтесь на федеральную трассу М4. Приехали в Лазаревскую в 13-00 в субботу. Мой водила два часа поспал перед Ростовом. На пути встретили четыре легкие аварии. Фура завалилась в кювет, и три штуки легковых машин поцеловались друг с другом и все это в Краснодарском крае. Квартирка у моего водилы хорошая, правда моря не видно, окна выходят на горы. Два балкона, большая кухня и прихожая. Можно сдавать отдыхающим. Пообедав и помывшись в душе я поехал своим ходом далее электричкой до Адлера, там автобусом до границы, перейдя границу, автолайном от границы до Пицунды. В субботу в 21 час я уже был в гостинице. Гостиница примерно 3 европейской звезды. Но сначала была торговля. За двухместный номер они запросили 3200 рублей. Я начал торговаться. Дошли до 2600 за сутки. Тут я попросил позвонить хозяину гостиницы. Хозяина не дали, но отвечал главный управляющий. Я ему объяснил ситуацию. Я сказал, что в Абхазии задрали цены, смерды все ломанулись в Турцию. Причем там дешевле. Потом у них в гостинке 50% номеров свободны. Потом я сказал, что я даже могу отказаться от включенного у них завтрака. Менеджер согласился на 2000 рублей. Причем он пока меня поселил на 14 ночей. Договор далее будем перерассматривать! Итак я получил свой унитаз, свой душ, койку 2-х местную, чайник, сейф в номере, два больших полотенца, два малых, мыло и шампунь, туалетную бумагу повышенной мягкости, кондишен, холодильник, Телевизор 36 дюймов, программы два стола, Шкаф для одежды, два стульчика и рлин на балконе. Зеркало размером 80 на 50 в комнате, другое в душевой. Две прикроватные тумбочки, шторы плоные и воздушные. Короче. Так должны жить успевающие трейдеры. Сливающие — даже не думайте о таком отдыхе. Для вас есть сараи и туалет на улице в 50 метрах. Итак я устроился на 15 дней. Наутро пошел купаться. Купался два часа. Потом обедал и отдыхал, смотрел морской парад! Теперь культурная программа. В Пицунде есть орган. Он расположен на территории храма ПИТИРИУМ. Я зашел в гостиницу при Храме и встретил старого знакомого Сергея Будкеева, профессора и преподавателя истории органистики в институте в Барнауле. Он в пятницу будет давать концерт в 17-00. Пригласил меня на концерт. Кстати, я в обед уже обедал с вокалисткой, лауреатом некоторых международных конкурсов Татьяной Сучкой. Рядом с ней была мама. Поговорили о классической музыке, Я сказал, что мой кумур в классической музыке — Это Анна Нетребко. Но у Татьяны Сучки меццо -сопрано, а у Анны лишь колоратурное сопрано. Хороший и преуспевающий трейдер должен знать эти различия в музыке для правильной торговли. И сказал, что с удовольствием завтра ее послушаю. Вечером поужинал и сейчас пишу отчет. Кстати, Сергей Будкеев приехал две недели назад в Абхазию и уже пару дней диареел. У меня же сутки пока прошли без диареи. Я решил не пить воду из фонтанчиков, чаще мыть руки. Хочу продержаться без поноса весь отдых. Надоело писать, пора и отдыхать. Если что- отвечу в комментариях. Я за дорогу заплатил до Лазаревской 4205 рублей ( бензин пополам — 3 800 водиле отдал, остальное общественному транспорту) Выводы: Отдыхающих в Пицунде мало. Столовая подорожала на 30 процентов с того года. Вода пока чистая. Но волнения моря. да, Из Самары здесь летал самолет. Катал отдыхающих. Так он три дня назад упал с неба. Погиб пилот и отец с сыночком. Беременная жена их ждала на аэродроме. И второй самолетик -вертолетик упал, но там множественные переломы тела. Вроде живы, но будут инвалидами. Успевающие трейдеры не должны летать на таких самолетиках. Пока все. Да, обучение трейденгу временно перенесено в Пицунду. Звоните, обучение трейдингу будем чередовать в купании в море. Все тот же самый S.Hamster
Волгоградская академия МВД России проведет проверку сведений о праздновании выпускного воспитанниками учебного заведения, сообщает пресс-служба вуза. Речь идет о резонансном видео, размещенном накануне в сети. Камера запечатлела проезд выпускников академии по городу на элитных внедорожниках Toyota Land Cruiser Prado.
Волгоградская академия МВД РФ проведет проверку сведений о шикарном выпускном воспитанников вуза. Камера зафиксировала заезд выпускников на внедорожниках Toyota Land Cruiser Prado
Волгоградская академия МВД России проводит проверку видео, на котором воспитанники учебного заведения, празднуя свой выпускной, проезжают по городу на внедорожниках Toyota Land Cruiser Prado. Об этом говорится в сообщении отделения информации и общественных связей вуза. «По указанию начальника Волгоградской академии МВД России генерал-майора полиции В.И. Третьякова проводится проверка сведений, размещенных в сети Интернет, о праздновании выпускного мероприятия», — говорится в сообщении.
Своей грустью и способами борьбы с ней Александр поделился с корреспондентами Sobesednik.ru
Новое видео позволяет увидеть погоню глазами полицейских.На записи видно, как полицейские гонятся за внедорожником. Операция по задержанию наркоторговцев планировалась более месяца и еще с мая сотрудники полиции уже готовились к планируемой сделке, согласно которой поставщик должен был привезти в уговоренное место несколько килограмм кокаина в обмен на 100 000 долларов США. Однако вместо обещанных денежных средств торговцев наркотиками ждали оперативные сотрудники отдела по борьбе с наркотиками, что и послужило поводом для попытки побега главных подозреваемых. В ходе погони правоохранителям удалось прострелить колеса джипа, который в итоге остановился. Атмосфера в их автомобиле оказалась захватывающей: на кадрах мелькает оружие, слышен рев сирен и бурные комментарии, удирающий внедорожник высекает сноп искр простреленным колесом. Один раз полицейским почти удалось прижать черную «Тойоту» к обочине, но ей удалось ускользнуть, и преследование продолжилось Я думал, они выскочат из автомобиля и попробуют скрыться, но нет. Из джипа никто не выходил. А через несколько секунд к нему подбежали уже полицейские и с оружием в руках начали кричать. Далее они открыли несколько дверей и практически одновременно вытащили всех на улицу, положив на землю. Спасибо, что смотрите мое видео! https://www.youtube.com/c/RS2000LT?sub_confirmation=1
Две автомашины столкнулись сегодня в Алатауском районе Алматы около 17:30, сообщает patrul.kz. Фото: patrul.kz Toyota Spacio под управлением женщины ехала в южном направлении по улице Байтенова (мкр Айгерим-2). Инкассаторский «УАЗ» двигался по улице Жеруйык на восток. Читайте также: В Алматы попавшая в ДТП "скорая" везла 3-летнего ребенка>> По «главной дороге» передвигалась Toyota. Водитель инкассаторского «бобика», по словам очевидцев, просто проигнорировал знак «Уступи дорогу» и выскочил на перекресток, на котором в «УАЗик» на полном ходу врезался японский автомобиль. От удара его развернуло в обратном направлении, почти на 180 градусов развернулась и спецмашина, которая в результате ДТП уперлась в забор близлежащего дома. В этой аварии пострадали две женщины – водитель и пассажирка Toyota Spacio. Их госпитализировали в больницы города. Фото: patrul.kz Фото: patrul.kz
АиФ.ru изучает результаты исследования надежности автомобилей с пробегом. Рейтинг — сплошная борьба «немцев» да «японцев» с легким вмешательством автопрома других стран.
Пока от России требовали перестать наносить удары по умеренным сирийским террористам, разрешив только избирательно бомбить НЕ-умеренных, вскрылось, что Госдеп США сам отправил в Сирию Toyota, которые как раз и оказались в руках неумеренных ИГИЛ через умеренных любимых "сукиных сынов" США.Ранее американские власти потребовали от Toyota объяснить наличие у боевиков ИГИЛ большого количества японских внедорожниковфото: REUTERS/StringerАмериканский Институт мира и процветания Рона Пола раскрыл загадку о том, откуда у боевиков ИГИЛ оказались в распоряжении сотни автомобилей марки Toyota. Оказалось, что в 2013–2014 годах Госдеп США и британское правительство поставляли эти джипы «Свободной сирийской армии», которая борется против режима Башара Асада. Политолог Тони Карталуччи ссылается на данные американского радио — Public Radio International и английской газеты The Independent. Ранее власти США потребовали объяснений у компании Toyota.Телеканал ABC News на прошлой неделе сообщил, что антитеррористический департамент минфина США обратился с запросом в компанию Toyota, желая выяснить, как у террористической группировки ИГИЛ оказалось большое количество новых пикапов и внедорожников японской марки — Toyota Land Cruiser, Hilux и др. На видеороликах, снятых в Сирии, Ливии и Ираке, боевики регулярно появляются на оснащенных оружием японских автомобилях.Однако в Toyota отрицают любую причастность к поставкам автомобилей террористам. В ответ на запрос властей США автоконцерн заявил, что не знает, каким образом террористическая организация получила в распоряжение их автомобили.Как пишет Институт мира и процветания Рона Пола, министерство финансов США должно было направить запрос не в Toyota, а в Государственный департамент США. Дело в том, что именно Госдеп отправил джипы марки Toyota в Сирию, как утверждалось, для «Свободной сирийской армии». Международное общественное радио (Public Radio International) в 2014 году опубликовало интервью с советником Национальной коалиции сирийских революционных и оппозиционных сил Оубаи Шахбандаром, где говорится, что Госдепартамент США возобновил отправку помощи сирийским повстанцам, включая 43 пикапа Toyota.«Hiluxes были в списке пожеланий «Свободной сирийской армии», — сообщает PRI.Правительство Великобритании также поставляло транспортные средства сирийским террористам. В 2013 году британская газета The Independent опубликовала материал под названием «Разоблачение: что Запад дал мятежникам Сирии», где говорится, что Великобритания направила оборудования на сумму около £8 млн, в соответствии с официальными бумагами, с которыми ознакомилась The Independent. Так, «помощь» состояла из пяти транспортных средств с баллистической защитой; 20 комплектов бронежилетов; четырех грузовиков (три 25-тонных и один 20-тонный); шести внедорожников; пяти небронированных пикапов; одной эвакуационной машины и пр.Институт мира и процветания Рона Пола заключил, что тайна того, как сотни одинаковых, новеньких автомобилей Toyota попали в Сирию, раскрыта — правительства США и Великобритании фактически собственными руками снабдили боевиков ИГИЛ новеньким автопарком. «Возможно, в Вашингтоне считают, что если правительство США задает вопрос о том, как террористам удалось получить автомобили, никто не будет подозревать, что они сыграли в этом определенную роль», — говорится в сообщении института.