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Транстихоокеанское партнерство
Транстихоокеанское партнерство
TPP Full Text Транстихоокеанское партнёрство (ТТП или ТЭП; Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP) — планируемая к созданию международная торгово-экономическая организация, целью которой является создание зоны свободной торговли в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Организация создаётся на основе ...

TPP Full Text

Транстихоокеанское партнёрство (ТТП или ТЭП; Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP) — планируемая к созданию международная торгово-экономическая организация, целью которой является создание зоны свободной торговли в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе. Организация создаётся на основе разрабатываемого торгового соглашения между её участниками.

Данная структура должна стать альтернативой АСЕАН и АТЭС, её создание является продолжением американской политики по сохранению контроля над Тихоокеанской зоной, созданию экономического блока для противостояния растущему влиянию Китая и России.

По прогнозам, доля стран ТТП (вместе с Японией) в мировом ВВП может достигнуть 38—40 % и четверть оборота мировой торговли (при этом лидируя по объёму доли в ВВП, но уступая в обороте мировой торговли торговому блоку АСЕАН+6 при условии участия Китая в АСЕАН).

 

 

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28 марта, 02:04

For Life & Liberty: REPEAL Bureaucracy

When government becomes destructive of our life and liberty, it is our right and duty to alter or abolish it. That’s why ObamaCare must be abolished. Trump was right to kill TPP instead of trying to tweak the details. ObamaCare has to be repealed, not “fixed” by a Health Czar at HHS. “Fixing” ObamaCare the way Rayn proposed would fix it in place as a Washington fixture. Follow David on Twitter - https://twitter.com/libertytarian Help us spread the word about the liberty movement, we're reaching millions help us reach millions more. Share the free live video feed link with your friends & family: http://www.infowars.com/show Follow Alex on TWITTER - https://twitter.com/RealAlexJones Like Alex on FACEBOOK - https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones Infowars on G+ - https://plus.google.com/+infowars/ :Web: http://www.infowars.com/ http://www.prisonplanet.com/ http://www.infowars.net/ :Subscribe and share your login with 20 friends: http://www.prisonplanet.tv http://www.InfowarsNews.com Visit http://www.InfowarsLife.com to get the products Alex Jones and his family trust, while supporting the growth of our expanding media operation. [http://bit.ly/2dhnhbS] Biome Defense™ [http://bit.ly/2bnEj91] Bio-True Selenium™ [http://bit.ly/1WYw8jp] Vitamin Mineral Fusion™ [http://bit.ly/1QYBNBv] Joint Formula™ [http://bit.ly/1nNuR3r] Anthroplex™ [http://bit.ly/1ljfWfJ] Living Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1Iobcj2] Deep Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1DsyQ6i] Knockout™ [http://bit.ly/1Kr1yfz] Brain Force™ [http://bit.ly/1R5gsqk] Liver Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1cOwQix] ProstaGuard™ [http://bit.ly/1mnchEz3] Child Ease™ [http://bit.ly/1xs9F6t] WinterSunD3™ [http://bit.ly/1L3gDSO] Ancient Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1EHbA6E] Secret-12™ [http://bit.ly/1txsOge] Oxy Powder™ [http://bit.ly/1s6cphV] Occu Power™ [http://bit.ly/1rGOLsG] DNA Force™ [http://bit.ly/1nIngBb] X2 Survival Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1kaXxKL] Super Female Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1mhAKCO] Lung Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1mGbikx] Silver-Bullet - Colloidal Silver™ [http://bit.ly/1xcoUfo] Super Male Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1z5BCP9] Survival Shield - Nascent Iodine™ [http://bit.ly/1o4sQtc] Patriot Blend 100% Organic Coffee™ [http://bit.ly/1iVL6HB] Immune Support 100% Organic Coffee™ All available at - http://www.infowarsshop.com/ INFOWARS HEALTH - START GETTING HEALTHY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE - http://www.infowarshealth.com/ Newsletter Sign up / Infowars Underground Insider : http://www.infowars.com/newsletter The Alex Jones Show © copyright, Free Speech Systems .LLC 1995 - 2017 All Rights Reserved. May use for fair use and educational purposes

27 марта, 19:36

Trumponomics: End globalization and bring the jobs home

from L. Randall Wray Trump has put forward a number of proposals related to the theme of ending globalization – including renegotiating NAFTA and pulling out of the TPP – many of which were directed at China and other exporters. Like many American politicians, Trump has claimed that China is a “currency manipulator” and promises to […]

27 марта, 12:39

What Kevin Brady thinks of Trump's trade agenda

In an interview, Congress's top trade legislator says NAFTA is Trump's first big test and lays out his own agenda.

27 марта, 08:17

Трамп: уже полное поражение или только начало конца? США покидают мировую арену. Дональд Трамп и грязная политика США

  Борьба американских элит за власть подобна шахматной дуэли, ведущейся на нескольких досках сразу. С чисто политической точки зрения это борьба за симпатии широких масс народа, бесконечная предвыборная гонка, здесь в порядке вещей невыполнимые обещания, патетические речи и прочие рекламно-маркетинговые фокусы. С другой стороны, власть в стране развитого капитализма немыслима без поддержки финансовых тяжеловесов, заинтересовать которых способны только реальные и очень большие деньги. Еще одна «доска» — это американское сверхсложное и постоянно мутирующее правовое поле, которое игроки используют для достижения своих целей и блокирования маневров противника. Есть и четвертое пространство — политическое закулисье, но оно темно и непроглядно для непосвященных, а анализ его чаще всего подменяется гаданием или теориями заговора. Дональд Трамп пришел в американскую политику с четким планом партии, который до недавнего времени по большей части удавалось притворить в жизнь. В ходе предвыборной кампании ему удалось воспламенить надеждой молчаливое большинство, он привлек на свою сторону давно находящихся в упадке капиталистов — промышленников, он дискредитировал Клинтон, использовав ее проблемы с законом, он всеми правдами и неправдами заставил партию объединиться вокруг него. Трамп буквально метался по стране выступая перед толпами сторонников, встречаясь с бизнесменами и чиновниками всех уровней. Семидесятилетний делец шел на всевозможные ужимки и прыжки, даже дал подергать себя за волосы, лишь бы достигнуть заветной цели. Все что он делал и говорил невозможно перечислить, но все это было радикально. Радикальные слова. Радикальная политика. Радикальный президент. Именно такого Трампа выбрали американцы через коллегию выборщиков, именно за таким стоят промышленники, именно такого поддержала в конечном итоге и партия. Он обещал радикальные перемены, он всем видом излучал радикализм. Умеренности ему не простят.  

27 марта, 06:30

1776: An HHS Czar Can’t Fix ObamaCare

1776 began over a 3% tax on tea. It wasn’t the tax rate — it was the dictatorial nature of the taxation without representation. Ryan’s strategy to “fix” ObamaCare would in fact, make it a permanent fixture. Like TPP, Trump must repeal it completely, not tinker with it. Phase 2 illustrates very clearly why ObamaCare must be ripped out before it takes root. Phase 2 would have Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Tom Price exercise dictatorial power to alter our health care by czar-like fiat. What do we do when the next Democrat Health Czar takes office? Help us spread the word about the liberty movement, we're reaching millions help us reach millions more. Share the free live video feed link with your friends & family: http://www.infowars.com/show Follow Alex on TWITTER - https://twitter.com/RealAlexJones Like Alex on FACEBOOK - https://www.facebook.com/AlexanderEmerickJones Infowars on G+ - https://plus.google.com/+infowars/ :Web: http://www.infowars.com/ http://www.prisonplanet.com/ http://www.infowars.net/ :Subscribe and share your login with 20 friends: http://www.prisonplanet.tv http://www.InfowarsNews.com Visit http://www.InfowarsLife.com to get the products Alex Jones and his family trust, while supporting the growth of our expanding media operation. [http://bit.ly/2dhnhbS] Biome Defense™ [http://bit.ly/2bnEj91] Bio-True Selenium™ [http://bit.ly/1WYw8jp] Vitamin Mineral Fusion™ [http://bit.ly/1QYBNBv] Joint Formula™ [http://bit.ly/1nNuR3r] Anthroplex™ [http://bit.ly/1ljfWfJ] Living Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1Iobcj2] Deep Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1DsyQ6i] Knockout™ [http://bit.ly/1Kr1yfz] Brain Force™ [http://bit.ly/1R5gsqk] Liver Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1cOwQix] ProstaGuard™ [http://bit.ly/1mnchEz3] Child Ease™ [http://bit.ly/1xs9F6t] WinterSunD3™ [http://bit.ly/1L3gDSO] Ancient Defense™ [http://bit.ly/1EHbA6E] Secret-12™ [http://bit.ly/1txsOge] Oxy Powder™ [http://bit.ly/1s6cphV] Occu Power™ [http://bit.ly/1rGOLsG] DNA Force™ [http://bit.ly/1nIngBb] X2 Survival Shield™ [http://bit.ly/1kaXxKL] Super Female Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1mhAKCO] Lung Cleanse™ [http://bit.ly/1mGbikx] Silver-Bullet - Colloidal Silver™ [http://bit.ly/1xcoUfo] Super Male Vitality™ [http://bit.ly/1z5BCP9] Survival Shield - Nascent Iodine™ [http://bit.ly/1o4sQtc] Patriot Blend 100% Organic Coffee™ [http://bit.ly/1iVL6HB] Immune Support 100% Organic Coffee™ All available at - http://www.infowarsshop.com/ INFOWARS HEALTH - START GETTING HEALTHY BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE - http://www.infowarshealth.com/ Newsletter Sign up / Infowars Underground Insider : http://www.infowars.com/newsletter The Alex Jones Show © copyright, Free Speech Systems .LLC 1995 - 2017 All Rights Reserved. May use for fair use and educational purposes

26 марта, 19:12

The Democratic Party’s Death by Identity Politics

The Democratic Party’s Death by Identity Politics Guest Column by Michael Hudson Read it. It is superb. http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46733.htm Wall Street First By Michael Hudson March 24, 2017 “Information Clearing House” –   Nobody yet can tell whether Donald Trump is an agent of change with a specific policy in mind, or merely a catalyst heralding an… The post The Democratic Party’s Death by Identity Politics appeared first on PaulCraigRoberts.org.

26 марта, 19:01

No plans to ‘choose sides’

NEW Zealand did not plan to “choose sides” on trade between the United States and China, it said yesterday as Premier Li Keqiang arrived. Trade Minister Todd McClay said closer ties with Beijing need

25 марта, 01:29

President Trump Delivers on Jobs for the American People

“Today we take one more step in putting the jobs, wages, and economic security of American citizens first.” – President Donald J. Trump FROM 8 YEARS OF OBSTRUCTION TO 8 WEEKS OF ACTION: Today, President Donald J. Trump announced TransCanada would receive a Presidential permit to build the Keystone XL pipeline. Despite complying with every requirement and study, including relocating the route, the Keystone XL pipeline faced eight years of obstruction. In his first week in office, President Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum to clear roadblocks to construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline. The Keystone XL pipeline is a $8 billion investment that will move 800,000 barrels of oil per day to Gulf Coast refineries, reducing the United States’ dependency on foreign oil. Constructing the Keystone XL pipeline is expected to support 42,100 jobs across the country for up to two years, 16,100 would be directly related to the project. The Keystone XL pipeline is expected to contribute approximately $3.4 billion to the United States GDP. Under the Trump administration, Government bureaucracy is getting out of the way so this $8 billion investment can finally get started. PARTNERING WITH PRIVATE SECTOR: Today, President Trump joined Charter Communications in announcing their commitment to invest in American jobs. Charter will be opening a brand new call center in McAllen, Texas, where the company will create 600 new American jobs. Charter will invest $25 billion in its United States infrastructure. Over the next four years, Charter will hire 20,000 American workers and is committed to on-shore 100 percent of the foreign call center and technical support roles it inherited from Time Warner Cable. MAKING JOB CREATION A PRIORITY: President Donald J. Trump is looking out for the American workers who Washington has left behind. President Trump has worked with the private sector to deliver tens of thousands of new jobs for Americans. President Trump ordered the United States to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement and negotiations. President Trump signed legislation, House Joint Resolution 38, to prevent the burdensome “Stream Protection Rule” from causing further harm to the coal industry. President Trump ordered the review of the “Clean Water Rule: Definition of Waters of the United States,” known as the WOTUS rule, to evaluate whether it is stifling economic growth or job creation. THE PRESIDENT FULFILLING HIS PROMISE: President Trump promised the American people he would put their interests first. In his “Contract with the American Voter,” President Trump promised he would lift “roadblocks and allow vital energy infrastructure projects, like the Keystone Pipeline, to move forward.” As a candidate, Mr. Trump promised “I am going to bring back the jobs that have been stripped away from you and your country.”

23 марта, 00:40

Press Briefing by Press Secretary Sean Spicer, 3/22/2017, #26

James S. Brady Briefing Room 1:41 P.M. EDT MR. SPICER:  Good afternoon.  First, at the top, I wanted to note that the President has been briefed on the situation in London.  He just spoke to Prime Minister May, and we’ll have a readout on that situation and that call soon.  We obviously condemn today’s attack in Westminster, which the United Kingdom is treating as an act of terrorism.  And we applaud the quick response that the British police and their first responders made to the situation.  The victims in this are in our thoughts and our prayers. The City of London and Her Majesty's government have the  full support of the U.S. government in responding to the attack and bringing those to justice who are responsible.  We will provide you with further updates as warranted and, as I mentioned, a readout of the President's call with the Prime Minister. Turning to the events of today -- this morning, the President received his daily intelligence briefing.  He stopped by the Women in Healthcare panel hosted by Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Systems Administrator, Seema Verma.  And also, that event was attended by the Vice President and the Health and Human Services Secretary, Dr. Tom Price. Healthcare professionals have seen the challenges of implementing Obamacare firsthand.  They're a valuable asset to the President and his team as we continue to consider and enact policies, like the American Health Care Act, that will make healthcare more accessible and affordable for everyone.  The women who were at the roundtable today represent the physicians, nurses, pharmacists, and administrators who make sure that people around the country receive the necessary preventative and lifesaving care that they need every day. The doctors who attend to the patients in the family practices, emergency rooms, and clinics -- and those who support them on the administrative and technical sides -- are one of our country’s most treasured resources. With the passage of the American Health Care Act and the rest of the President’s healthcare reform agenda, everyone, regardless of their financial situation, will be able to take full advantage of this resource. That’s why, at last count, over 40 major associations have expressed their support for the American Health Care Act, with several of them, including the U.S. Chamber [of Commerce], the National Federation of Independent Businesses, and, just today, the National Taxpayers Union calling it a key vote. Following his appearance at the panel, the President and his legislative affairs team hosted several members of the House of Representatives for another meeting on the American Health Care Act.  The President acknowledged, as he has before, that the AHCA is only one step in the larger process of fixing the broken healthcare system created by Obamacare, but it’s an essential first step. Undoing and fixing all of the misguided policies is going to require a holistic, multistep process.  And that’s why the President and his team are fully committed to maintaining an open line of communication with Capitol Hill leadership throughout this entire process.  Throughout the weeks since the AHCA was first introduced, they have been meeting with Republican members from across the political spectrum, many of whom we’ve seen move from “no” to “yes,” as they learn more about the legislation and amendments that have been adopted.  Continued coordination between administrative and legislative actions will ensure that our new healthcare system is effective and efficient. This afternoon, the President will meet with the Congressional Black Caucus’s Executive Committee.  The President has brought in and will continue to hear from representatives of all interests as he continues to note that he is the President of all Americans.  Diversity makes our nation strong, and it also means that we don't necessarily agree on every policy item but that we continue to have a dialogue towards productive policies that help America move forward. The President looks forward to discussing the CBC’s policy priorities and finding ways that they can work together where those priorities align. This evening, the President will have dinner with Secretary  of State Tillerson.  Today at the State Department, Secretary Tillerson hosted the foreign ministers and senior leaders of the Global Coalition working to defeat ISIS for the first meeting of the full coalition of 68 members since December 2014.  This meeting follows up on the defense ministerial Secretary Mattis hosted last month in Brussels. The coalition is united in the fight against ISIS, and this meeting seeks to accelerate international efforts to defeat ISIS in the remaining areas it holds in Iraq and Syria, while maximizing pressure on its branches, affiliates, and networks. This meeting is a part of our whole-of-government approach to defeating ISIS.  The Trump administration will use all of the tools of national power, in coordination with our international powers [partners], to cut off ISIS’s funding, expand intelligence sharing, and deny ISIS geographic and online safe havens. Also today, over on the Hill, Judge Gorsuch [is] in his second day of questioning by the Senate Judiciary Committee.  During his nearly 12 hours of questioning yesterday -- now at least I know how someone else feels -- (laughter) -- the judge continued to prove himself an enormously qualified jurist that Americans will all be proud to see on the Supreme Court.  It’s not surprising that Senate Democrats are failing to gain traction for any of their potshots and opposition to Judge Gorsuch.  There’s simply not enough politicizing the Senate Democrats can do to hide the fact that Judge Gorsuch is an immensely qualified and thoughtful jurist with a lifelong dedication to our Constitution. A few administrative notes here before I take your questions:  Last night, we formally announced that the President will travel to Brussels for the May 25th meeting of NATO heads of state and government.  During this meeting, the President looks forward to reaffirming our strong commitment to NATO and discussing critical issues to the Alliance, especially Allied responsibility-sharing and NATO’s role against -- the fight against terrorism. The President will also host NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg to the White House on April 12th. Today, the President declared a major disaster exists in the state of Wyoming and ordered federal assistance to supplement state, tribal, and local recovery efforts in the areas affected by a severe winter storm and straight-line winds that occurred in February. We also announced that the President will deliver this year’s commencement address at Liberty University on May 13th. The President is proud to call Liberty’s president, Jerry Falwell, his wife Becki and their entire family, his friends, and looks forward to celebrating the success of this amazing graduating class on such a momentous occasion. Finally, a few minutes ago, many of you may have seen that the Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, gave remarks on the surveillance collected on individuals associated with the President.  Let me quote him directly: “I recently confirmed that on numerous occasions the intelligence community incidentally collected information about U.S. citizens involved in the Trump transition.  Details about U.S. persons associated with the incoming administration, details with little or no apparent foreign intelligence value, were widely disseminated in the intelligence community reporting.  And third, I have confirmed that additional names of Trump transition team members were unmasked.  And fourth and finally, I want to be clear, none of this surveillance was related to Russia or the investigation of Russian activities or [of] the Trump team.” My understanding is that Chairman Nunes is coming to the White House later to brief the President on this development, and we will have a readout for that meeting once it occurs. With that, I'll be glad to take your questions.  Mara. Q    Two questions.  One on Nunes and then healthcare.  Is your understanding that this -- none of these unmasked names were leaked? MR. SPICER:  I don’t know.  I literally read the statement -- or heard the statement, came out and briefed it.  It was wrapping up as we were beginning this. Q    Okay.  Today in the pool spray, the President said "keep your doctor, keep your plan" didn't work out that way.  You didn't get your doctor.  You don't get your plan.  This is one of the reasons we have to repeal Obamacare.   Is the President assuring people who currently like their plan or like their doctor that under the American Health Care Act they can keep their doctor and their plan? MR. SPICER:  Well, that's the hope.  And what I mean by that is not to be cute, but last time they were promised something that didn't turn out.  I can't promise something that a doctor stays in a plan or a plan stays there.  But that's a bit different.   We understand that we're letting market forces come into play here.  Competition.  Doctors can change what insurances they take.  Plans can come in and out of markets. What I think we can be assured of is a couple of things.  One is that currently under Obamacare, premiums are set to continue to skyrocket.  We've seen an average of 25 percent.  We've noted before in Arizona, they've gone up 116 percent.  I think there’s no question that the additional competition and amendments that have been brought into this discussion will help lower the trajectory of that, number one. Number two is I think that they're going to see greater choice.  So I think those are the things that we're willing to talk about being part of this plan because you can't -- where they erred last time is went out and made promises that they couldn’t keep.  And I think that one of the problems that they did is that they’ve tried to suppress market forces and competition.  And instead of lowering costs and increasing choice, which is what they sought to do, it did the opposite.  So that's where this is headed, and I think that's important. John. Q    Thanks a lot, Sean.  On the AHCA, Mark Meadows, who appears to be a firm no in terms of his opposition to the replacement bill, said that 25 members of the Freedom Caucus are opposed to this replacement bill.  Do you dispute those numbers? MR. SPICER:  I’m not going to share our whip count.  I know we saw Lou Barletta, who was a hard no, come out and say he’s yes.  Steve King I believe had been a no; he’s a yes.  Member by member we're seeing tremendous support flow in our direction, and the count keeps getting stronger for us.  So I’m not going to start to get into yes or nos.  But I would just say that former Congressman Mulvaney, now Director of OMB Mulvaney, who is a leader in that caucus, has been a very strong advocate of this policy.  As you know, he’s been up on the Hill talking to his former colleagues, assuring them of the effort and why the process has to go the way it does. But I’m optimistic in the sense of what we're seeing and the trajectory that this is going, and the number of votes that are flowing our way, not the other way. Q    And on the confirmation hearing for Judge Neil Gorsuch, I have not seen any Democrat come out in support of Judge Gorsuch just yet.  Do you anticipate that you’ll get Democratic support on this particular nomination?  MR. SPICER:  I hope and believe so.  I think that there have been several that have been spoken very positively.  I think he’s been extremely impressive throughout this confirmation process, and you've heard members both in the Senate, on the committee, and then a lot of outside voices comment on how well he’s done, how qualified he is.  And I think it’s tough for anybody to say that he’s not immensely qualified for this position.  Alexis. Q    Sean, related to Congressman Nunes, can you explain why the White House has agreed to meet with him at all about what his findings are?  And the reason I ask that is because the minute that Director Comey said that there was an official investigate, it might appear as if the White House is interfering with the investigation.  And Congressman Nunes should present his information not to the White House but to the FBI.  So why is anyone here at the White House agreeing to meet with him about his findings?  MR. SPICER:  We’ll have a readout for you after that meeting.  I think he did this press conference.  He made the announcement that he was coming up to see the President to share these findings.  I don't know who else he’s shared them with.  I don't know -- to your question, I don't know if he’s briefed anyone else on it in terms of the intelligence community -- either Admiral Rogers or Comey -- of whether this is something they shared with him.   But I think after the meeting, hopefully depending on the classification level, we may be able to share more on that with you. Q    Can I just add, is the President concerned at all that there will be an appearance immediately, today that he has interfered with an ongoing investigation -- whether it’s a congressional investigation or the executive branch investigation by meeting privately with a congressman who says he has information? MR. SPICER:  So let me get this straight.  Number one, we asked -- as you know, two weeks ago, we said this was the appropriate venue.   Number two, you guys have asked us over and over again, why aren’t we meeting with certain individuals.  The chairman of the committee that -- one of the two committees that we asked to look into this -- wants to share his findings, or what he knows.  I think that is exactly how we’ve talked about this working.  But I would leave it to Congressman Nunes to come up, and to brief and share his thoughts.  I don’t know what his plan is.  Obviously, he sat -- he briefed the media before he briefed us.  He went down and talked about what he had found.   So, you know, it’s interesting, I didn’t see any complaints from you guys when he went down and held a press conference for the umpteenth time talking about his findings and what he's found.  There is no complaints from the media when he shares what he has found with you guys.  But when he wants to come up here and tell us, this is where the investigation stands and here’s what I've unloaded -- or excuse me, learned -- there’s seems to be a little bit of an interesting double standard on that. Q    Just to close the loop, because the President said that he had additional information that he believed the White House or he or his representatives would present, related to this investigation, what Congressman Nunes has is not related to that? MR. SPICER:  I don’t -- you’re asking me questions that -- he has not briefed us.  He has not briefed the President.  You guys, as I noted -- he actually went down and spoke to the media before he shared this with us.   So I would ask the colleagues that of yours that ask questions, more than you have -- you've had -- collectively, the media has more of an opportunity to ask questions and to hear what he has to say than we do at this point.  So once we have more to understand what he said, to the extent that we can, I’m sure we’ll be glad to share it with you.  But the media has more information than we do at this point. Jon. Q    Sean, staying on that, didn’t we already know that there was incidental collection of intelligence involving some members of the transition team?  And I point to -- MR. SPICER:  Not the way you guys ask the questions.  I mean, you questioned us every day about what we knew, and now you’re coming back to me saying, didn’t we already know this.  Well -- I’m doing somewhat of an effective job. Q    No, but didn’t we already know that Flynn was monitored in his conversations with Kislyak? MR. SPICER:  Right.   Q    So we know -- MR. SPICER:  Again, I guess my point, John, is I don’t know.  He made a statement, went down to the press.  Until we get briefed on this, until the President gets briefed, I don’t know what he knows.  And so to ask -- until that occurs, and until we have the ability to share some of that in an unclassified nature, I don’t want to get ahead of it.  I don’t know what he knows.  That’s why, apparently, he’s coming up to share his findings with the President.  At least that’s what he said.  Again, let’s wait and see how this unfolds. Q    And on the American Health Care Act, Mark Meadows says they don’t have the votes, they need to start over and do a new bill.  That sounds like you’re in pretty serious trouble. MR. SPICER:  No, that sounds like one member’s opinion.  As I mentioned -- Q    Who represents a large contingent of people who oppose the bill. MR. SPICER:  No, no, no, but again, I just named a few of the members that are part of that caucus that have come on board.  I think that -- look, every day, you see more and more of those members from that caucus and throughout the entire conference express their support for the bill.  The President was up yesterday for a while talking to them.   We’ve had members -- and the Vice President has been actively engaged -- Mick Mulvaney, Reince Priebus, Marc Short and Rick Dearborn, who lead our leg affairs team.  These guys have been flooding the Hill.  They’ve been on the phone, having meetings with them.  There’s been a series of members up here all day.  I think the trajectory is going very well for us. Q    And Heritage Action says you can easily fix this bill simply by removing the regulatory framework -- the tax credits and all of that -- and you’ll get massive buy-in from conservatives.  But can you do that? MR. SPICER:  There are certain constraints that we have in the reconciliation process.  And for those who are steeped in the arcane rules of the Senate, there's a thing called the Byrd Rule, and it does not allow policy to be recreated.  It has to do with the budgetary nature of that vehicle to get -- that’s sustainable at 50 votes.  Right now, there are certain things that I think a lot of people would like but that will not potentially get ruled in order by the Senate parliamentarian.   So I understand what people want, but I think that we have created a vehicle to get this done.  This is the only way that we will repeal and replace Obamacare.  And again, I think people have to recognize that there is a three-step process to doing this.  This is exactly how the Democrats enacted it, and this is exactly how we will unwind it and implement a much better system.  That’s it, plain and simple.   Margaret.  Q    Sean, I know you can’t get ahead of Nunes, but what he said was, incidental, legal surveillance using a FISA warrant, which would -- MR. SPICER:  I don’t believe he said FISA warrant. Q    He did. MR. SPICER:  Did he?  Okay. Q    He did.  And that’s why I’m asking this question, which is, does the Trump administration have the presumption that foreign leaders or foreign nationals will not be surveilled when they are in contact with -- MR. SPICER:  No, look, again, as I said, I don’t want to start talking or guessing what he may say or may not say, or explain this.  I think that we will have more information, or I hope to have more information once the President is briefed, and to find out what else has gone on in terms of additional information on this.  But I do think it is a startling revelation and there's a lot of questions that need to get asked.  I think it's interesting all of the questions are in the presumptive negative towards us, as opposed to "why was this taking place, why were people surveilled ostensibly; they were involved in the campaign."  Because it's not -- Q    Well, that's why I'm trying to clarify that -- MR. SPICER:  No, no, the question is -- the question -- Q    -- was your presumption that foreign nationals -- MR. SPICER:  No, no, it's not a presumption.  Actually, I'm not the one -- Q    (Inaudible.) MR. SPICER:  Right.  Respectfully, I'm not the one with the presumption -- you guys are.  I didn’t come up here presuming anything.  I actually started my comments off by saying that -- Q    Well, I would presume that foreign nationals are being monitored by U.S. intelligence when they are talking to anyone.   MR. SPICER:  And then the question -- I think there's a series of questions, which is, how many times was an individual picked up?  Why were they picked up?  Were they unmasked?  Again, a lot of this, if they're picked up during a FISA warrant, is that American citizens are prohibited by law from being unmasked, from "having their name put out there."  Why would someone's name get put out there?  What ways were they described?  There's a lot of questions that need to get asked.  Those are the relevant issues that need to get asked.  How many times was one individual followed?  Did their name get unmasked, and why?  But there's a lot of things that need to get followed up on.  We're not at that position yet, as I've said now multiple times.  The Chairman is going to come up here, brief the President, I don’t know to what extent and to what detail.  But hopefully, as we move forward, we will have more.   Q    Is this what you've been -- because you've said there's more information to come, more information to come.  Is this what you've been gesturing towards? MR. SPICER:  I don’t know.  For the eighth time, there is no -- we don’t know what he's going to come up here and explain and share.  And until that happens, for me to talk about where we think this is headed -- again, we're not in the business of trying to get to this point yet.  We say, this is what they have.  We've asked that the investigation be conducted and that people gather up information.  What they have and to what extent, we'll know soon.  April.  Q    Sean, I have a series of questions on a topic.  Gwen Carr, the mother of Eric Garner, met with an official here at the White House yesterday.  She's looking for fairness and justice in her son's case.  What should we expect to come out of that meeting with this White House official?  Should there be a push to make sure that there is an indictment of the police officer's -- MR. SPICER:  I mean, that's a Department of Justice question.  For us to get involved in a case, a specific case, would be highly inappropriate in terms of trying to guess what the outcome of a case should be. Q    Well, along that line, the official, according to Ms. Carr, reached out to the Department of Justice, the civil rights division, had the wrong number; called another department, had the right number.  Now, in previous administrations, to include the Obama administration and other administrations, the Department of Justice had limited the numbers of people to call over to the Department of Justice.  Has the Attorney General, this Attorney General Sessions, changed that memo?  What has he done? MR. SPICER:  Well, it would have to be reissued.  That's a separate issue in terms of -- every Attorney General issues a memo going back to, I think, Mukasey was the first one -- post-Watergate -- I'm trying to remember who issued the first one.  But it has been a practice of I think almost every Attorney General to issue a memo spelling out the procedures that officials in the Justice Department contact the White House and who they can contact, and the nature of which and what their exceptions are, et cetera.  Those memos get crafted by each administration, by each new Attorney General.  I would refer you back to the Department of Justice on the status of that under this Attorney General. Q    So how many officials here have that right, to call the Department of Justice, even if it's for -- MR. SPICER:  I don’t know the answer.  I would refer you to the Department of Justice. Q    But was there wrongdoing in this effort to call over to the Department of Justice? MR. SPICER:  I don’t know.  I don’t know the nature of -- I'll have to look into what you're asking.  But I would, again, refer you back to the Department of Justice. Hunter. Q    Yes.  Thank you, Sean.  I have two quick questions.  Last November, President Trump dismissed reports he was trying to obtain security clearances for his children as "a typically false news story."  Now there are reports Ivanka Trump is indeed attempting to obtain a clearance.  What changed there? MR. SPICER:  Well, at the time, it was not true.  I mean, she wasn’t obtaining a security clearance, so it was not accurate then.  There was no -- I think we addressed it during the transition.  An official had actually just inquired.  There was no actual attempt at the time.  The official in question was removed from the transition team.  They had merely made an inquiry into what it would take to get an SF-86 process moving forward.  No paperwork was ever drawn, no account was opened, and that official was let go. At this time, as I mentioned yesterday, Ivanka has decided to go above and beyond, and act in certain ways to ensure that she complies with certain rules by maintaining the Federal Records Act, getting a security clearance so that if she is privy to any information that is classified, she has to abide by the same rules and regulations in terms of being in a room and how it's handled, et cetera.  We have taken appropriate measures to do that.  I mentioned the statement yesterday and will stick by it. Q    And then the second question on Paul Manafort.  The Associated Press has published a report based on documents that he had a plan to "benefit" Vladimir Putin for a client.  And with him back in the headlines, I'm just wondering if you still stand by the comment that he had a "limited role" on the campaign.  And if you could explain a little bit more about how spending months as the campaign's top official is a limited role. MR. SPICER:  Yeah, thank you.  I've tried to avoid commenting.  I know I've talked to a lot of you about the individual stories, but I think obviously this one has started to catch a lot of buzz.  So to comment briefly on this, I think nothing in this morning's report referenced any actions by the President, the White House, or any Trump administration official.  I think that's got to be clear from the get-go.   The report is entirely focused on actions that Paul took a decade ago regarding -- he's a former advisor of the campaign, and the actions that came to light this morning are about a client that he had last decade.   I know I commented on this the other day, and clearly I should have been more precise with respect to Paul's role.  So let me clarify this and kind of go through the facts.  Paul was hired to oversee the campaign's delegate operation.  He had played a significant role in the convention and delegate operations of four previous Republican nominees -- Bob Dole, former Presidents George H. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford.  And to be clear, he got the job done on the delegates.  The President won the Republican nomination after months of speculation after a potentially contested contest -- convention. In total, he was involved with the campaign for a total of just under five months.  He was first hired on March 28th to oversee delegate operations.  He was made the chief strategist and campaign chairman on May 19th.  And his relationship with the campaign ended on August 19th.   The AP story focuses on his activities from the last decade.  And to place in to context, Paul represented many foreign clients, according to publicly available data, in the Caribbean, Asia, Africa and Europe.  His representation of foreign clients is public and similar to the work of Tony Podesta, a Clinton campaign fundraiser, whose brother John chaired Hillary Clinton's campaign. Last year -- not last decade -- Tony Podesta lobbied against sanctions for Russia's largest bank.  And John Podesta, Clinton's campaign chair, sat on the board of a Russian-based energy company.  This was something tied to Hillary Clinton, who was the face of the failed Russia reset policy.  So it's not even close -- what we're talking about now isn't even close to her most significant role with respect to Russia. As Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, along with the Obama administration, approved a deal that gave Russia one-fifth of America's uranium reserves.  Hillary's husband, former President Bill Clinton, received over half a million dollars by a paid speech by a bank connected to the uranium deal.  And Vladimir Putin personally called the former President and thanked him for giving the speech. So an individual who worked for less than -- the campaign for five months for the President's two-year long campaign, who worked with a Russian entity a decade ago, is the subject of rampant media speculation all day long, even though the Clintons had much more expensive -- extensive ties, while Secretary of State Hillary was crafting a policy she said was designed "strengthen Russia." And to be clear, the President has no personal financial dealings with Russia.  His ties are limited to hosting a contest in Russia once, and selling a Palm Beach home to a businessman in 2005.  That's it.   And for members of the media trying to conflate Paul's role in activities with Monday's hearing, I have another reminder:  Numerous individuals, including former Obama Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, and acting CIA Director Mike Morrell and members of the intelligence community from both parties who have been briefed have said across the board that they have seen zero evidence of any collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian officials.  And that's not going to be changed by former business dealings of a campaign staffer from a decade ago. Sara. Q    Thanks, Sean.  You and other senior administration officials have sought to assure skeptical Republican lawmakers that phase two of these regulatory modifications will address some of their concerns.  So what is Secretary Tom Price waiting for?  Why not roll out phase two now if the vote is looking like it's going to be a very close marker? MR. SPICER:  I think in some of those cases -- and it's tied to -- it's all one package, and that's why I think you saw some of the stuff he is working on, some of the stuff he is doing.  But I think the important piece is to get the phase-one part of it done.  He has assured them and talked to them about different administrative actions.   Again, part of this is sequencing.  I mean, the same way that in Obamacare they didn’t just have Kathleen Sebelius then go out and start implementing things.  They passed the bill first through the reconciliation process, got that done, and then she did the administrative piece.  We're doing the same process because of how some of the sequencing has to occur.  And then the same thing on the legislative front, we've introduced in the House -- all those pieces of legislation have been done.  Leader McCarthy has started to talk about the, that do all of the prong -- three steps.   So a lot of it is coming together, but part of it is, is a sequencing aspect that needs to get taken care of.  But we are moving in the right direction. Can I go to John (inaudible) for the first question on Skype? Q    Yes.  Good afternoon, Sean, from (inaudible) in Newport.  Sean, you have a lot of members of the media saying that President Trump -- the President to all the people.  What does the President say -- (inaudible)?  Yesterday, you had (inaudible) White House grandstanding at the confirmation hearing.  We've had Elizabeth Warren (inaudible), the Boston Globe condemning the (inaudible).  You had Rhode Island Governor, Gina Raimondo, boycott.  You had (inaudible) while she fundraised around the country.  What's the President saying to frustrated Trump supporters who don’t feel they're getting proper representation (inaudible) and in Congress? MR. SPICER:  Well, I mean, I think with respect to Judge Gorsuch, which is I think -- pretty clear that's where you're headed on this -- Q    Yes. MR. SPICER:  Thank you.  I just -- I mean, when you look at the praise, I mean, obviously I would love for it to be universal.  And while we've gotten bipartisan praise from pundits and former law clerks in both parties, high number of jurists and former people -- legal scholars, members of Congress, we're not going to win everybody.  And I think that Democrats have tried to score some points on the committee.  They've largely fallen by the wayside.  And we've seen very high praise for him. So I would just suggest that anybody who's got a problem with him, I'd love to hear it, because so far most of the issues -- no one seems to have a problem with his academic credentials, his record or anything else.  So I'm pretty buoyed by a lot of what we've seen come out of Capitol Hill with respect to him. Blake. Q    Sean, thanks.  Do you take the House Freedom Caucus at their word, Mark Meadows at their word?  There are at least two dozen or so who are "nos."  So how do you get from this point right now policy-wise to tomorrow -- something, anything that maybe might flip that? MR. SPICER:  I think we're doing it.  I mean, piece by piece, member by member, we're getting there, and we're getting much closer.  The last couple days we've continued to do that.  But then today alone, I mentioned a couple of the other members.  Slowly but surely we're getting there, and I feel confident that when the vote comes up, we'll have the votes. Q    And let me ask you today, Patrick McHenry, congressman, deputy whip, described the President, as members of Congress were coming in here to the White House, as the "closer."  Do you embrace that label? MR. SPICER:  He is the closer. Q    Do you embrace that label here as it relates to healthcare? MR. SPICER:  Absolutely.  Ayesha. Q    You just said that you're confident that the healthcare bill will pass tomorrow.  I want to get a sense of how confident you are.  I don’t know if you want to rate your percentage on it.  Like, how confident are you that the bill will pass?  And if it doesn’t pass, is there a plan B? MR. SPICER:  No, there is no plan B.  There's plan A and plan A.  We're going to get this done. Q    And so you're confident -- 100 percent confident? MR. SPICER:  We're going to get it done.  That's it -- plain and simple. Q    Thanks, Sean.  I know you said you didn’t know what information you were going to find out today from Chairman Nunes, but my question for you is, when did the President know about this surveillance that the Congressman brought up today on Capitol Hill?  He spoke late last week about -- we'll find out more information that would support these wiretapping claims.  Is this the information he was talking about? MR. SPICER:  Until Chairman Nunes briefs him, we don’t know what he knows versus what the President has been made aware of.  And so how that jives, I don’t know.  I hope to have more for you later. Q    And a quick follow-up on healthcare and just a quick follow-up on Asia.  Does the President believe the healthcare bill will pass the House tomorrow? MR. SPICER:  Yes. Jonathan. Q    Two questions on Paul Manafort.  Did the President know that he had worked to advance Putin’s interests previous to becoming the campaign chairman? MR. SPICER:  No, the President was not aware of Paul’s clients from last decade.  No. Q    But is that a problem?  You know, now that all this is coming out and there is a whole lot scrutiny -- MR. SPICER:  No, no, but what is coming up?  What else don’t we know?  I mean, where he went to school, what grades he got, who played he played with in the sandbox? Q    Well, you didn’t know that Michael Flynn was -- MR. SPICER:  Okay, I -- thanks, Peter.  I’m answering a question --  Q    We're all part of the conversation.   MR. SPICER:  No, you’re not, actually. The answer to your question is, I think to talk about someone having a client from 10 years ago that had a consulting company with clients from around the world -- Q    He paid millions of dollars to advance Putin’s interests.  I mean, that’s enough --  MR. SPICER:  Well, I don’t know what he got paid to.  If you listen to what Paul -- Q    The documents said -- MR. SPICER:  Hold on.  I understand.  I’m going to answer your question, if you give me a second.  That he was a consultant, he had clients from around the world.  There is no suggestion that he did anything improper.  But to suggest that that President knew who his clients were from a decade ago is a bit insane.  There is not -- he was not a government employee.  He didn’t fill out any paperwork attesting to something.  There is nothing that he did that suggests, at this point, that anything was nefarious.  He was hired to do a job; he did it.  That’s it -- plain and simple. Q    I’m just saying, given that it was such a focus -- you brought it up just then with Hillary Clinton, that these were corrupt arrangements and that the Clinton Foundation was described as a criminal enterprise, and there was all this discussion of Russia.  And you've pointed out -- MR. SPICER:  There is a big difference between -- there was dollars -- hold on -- Q    I understand.  I'm not conflating the President.  I’m just asking, is he disappointed, now that he has found this out, that there was this -- MR. SPICER:  Found out what, Jonathan?  That he had a client over a -- Q    That he was working for Putin, for a lot of money. MR. SPICER:   -- in the past decade, he had a client, and you’re worried about what?  That he held -- I mean -- Q    That he was doing work to advance Putin’s interests. MR. SPICER:  I don’t know what work he was doing.  So to suggest that just because he had a client in the past decade that no one is suggesting was anything improper -- he was hired to count delegates, which is what he did, and he was successful at it, as he had done for George Herbert Walker Bush, Gerald Ford, and Bob Dole.  He was hired to do a job, and he did it, and he did it fine.  So -- Steven. Q    Sean, why did the President fire Paul Manafort? MR. SPICER:  Well, for two reasons.  One is, I think, that there were some issues coming up with his ties to Ukraine that were becoming a distraction.  And secondly, he was, I think, sixteen points down at the time.  And he was down in the 20s in women.  And I think the President recognized that he needed to make a change for those two reasons. Q    Second question on healthcare.  As confident and as optimistic as you are -- if at this point tomorrow you don’t have the magic number -- should the Speaker pull the bill from the floor? MR. SPICER:  No, this is it.  If you want to see Obamacare repealed and replaced, this is the vote, this is the time to act.  This is what people have told the American people is going to happen.  This vote needs to happen.  If you’re waiting for your chance, this is it.  We need to act. Cheryl. Q    Thank you.  Wall Street appears to be getting a little nervous about the possibility of tax reform this year.  Can you say definitively that the President will present a package of tax reforms this year? MR. SPICER:  Yes. Darlene. Q    What time is the President expected to meet with Chairman Nunes this afternoon?  MR. SPICER:  I don’t -- I was walking out as the Chairman was reiterating -- I literally heard him on the streaming -- like, on the -- you know, his comments -- as he was saying them.  So I don’t know that it was scheduled.  The President was wrapping up a call with Prime Minister May at the time that I walked out, so I don’t know what was scheduled. Q    And was there any consideration given to not meeting with the Chairman given the appearance -- MR. SPICER:  I don’t know.  I just know what the Chairman said he was doing.  I walked out of here before anything had been finalized.  He was still wrapping up the call with Theresa May at the time. Zeke. Q    Thanks, Sean.  You said the President is the closer, there is no plan B, tomorrow is it.  So if you -- MR. SPICER:  You’ve done a very good job, Zeke.  (Laughter.)  You guys better be careful, he’s going to put you out of work. Q    So if tomorrow night’s outcome doesn’t go your way, if the vote fails, what should we then read into the President’s ability to negotiate and close deals; the White House’s ability to plant any sort of legislation and a legislative -- MR. SPICER:  Look -- and I know what you’re trying to get me to -- but we feel very good about the trajectory of this.  Members continue to come with us.  The number is going higher and higher, not lower and lower.  So the trajectory is great.  As I mentioned, everybody is out there -- full court press on this, and this is opportunity for anybody who wants to see this done.   But I just want to be clear, we have a robust agenda -- tax reform, as I just mentioned, trade, immigration.  There’s a lot of other things that need to get done.  And I think there’s continued to be widespread support.  In a lot of cases, bipartisan support for the President’s agenda.  And so we’re going to continue to roll on in that.  But we feel very good about where we are now. Mark. Q    Sean, I was going to ask, in terms of after the vote tomorrow night, for those Republicans who decide to not support the White House, what kind of relationship -- any change in the relationship -- would they see going forward?  Would they expect to see maybe a primary challenge later on?  Or this is one of those things where they can vote their conscience if they really believe this isn’t the bill? MR. SPICER:  I think we’re obviously -- we believe that this is a great opportunity to achieve the principles that we laid out to the American people.  We’re not looking -- this is not -- the President made clear yesterday when he visited with the conference, he’s not there to threaten them; he’s there to explain political landscape to them, and to explain that -- I think that when you keep your promise, no matter what business you’re in, you tend to be rewarded -- whether it’s your customers or your friends, your family, your voters -- that Washington for too long has suffered a deficit of trust, and that we made very clear to the American people, if you gave us this opportunity and this honor to govern, that we would get certain things done.  And this was at the top of that list.   And this bill represents the best chance of repealing and replacing Obamacare and instilling a patient-centric healthcare system that increases choice and lowers cost, and that this is the only train leaving the station. Jonathan.  Q    Thank you, Sean.  Sean, would then-candidate Donald Trump have hired Paul Manafort, such an important and prominent position in his campaign, if he had known that he had had a $10 million contract with somebody so close to Vladimir Putin to “greatly benefit the Putin government”?  If he had known that, would he have hired him? MR. SPICER:  I don’t know.  I don’t want to -- Paul was hired, as I said, to count delegates.  That’s why he was brought in, as he had been for George W. Bush, Gerald Ford, Bob Dole.  He did his job.  That’s what he was there for.  And -- Q    And to run the campaign.  I mean, he was chairman of the campaign. MR. SPICER:  No, no.  After, what, May 19th or something.  But again, I’m not going to -- Q    And to run the convention.  I mean, you’ll notch it was a very prominent role. MR. SPICER:  Yeah -- as he had done for the other three.  He had held very significant -- look, so again, you’re basically saying, hey, the work that he did, he had a client a decade ago, would he have -- I don’t know the answer to that -- Q    $10 million to promote the interests of Vladimir Putin. MR. SPICER:  The answer to your question -- I don’t know.  To look back right now and to say, if we knew now what we know then, would we have done things different?  I don’t know.  That’s a question that the President would have to weigh at the time. Q    But he definitely didn’t know.   MR. SPICER:  No. Q    You’re saying he didn’t know. MR. SPICER:  No, he did not know.   Q    He had not idea that Manafort had done this. MR. SPICER:  Of course, not.  To suggest that he -- I mean, that’s like -- you can think about how many people are involved in a campaign of some sort.  And granted, in this campaign it was run lean and mean.  But to suggest that everybody knew everybody’s background -- did they pay their taxes, how much did they pay, what deductions did they take, who did they work for in the -- Q    Shouldn’t he have disclosed that?  I mean, he did work for -- MR. SPICER:  Disclosed what?  That he had done -- Q    He had worked on behalf of an adversary of the United States.  He got a $10 million contract.   MR. SPICER:  Again, I’m not here to vouch for what he did or how -- I don’t know. Q    -- but the President would want to know, wouldn’t he? MR. SPICER:  Maybe.  Maybe, maybe not.  I don’t know what the circumstances were at the time, and I don’t know what exactly -- so for me to start to infer that what he did or did not do was anything improper is not appropriate at this time.  I don’t know what work he did.  I know what he was hired to do, and he did his job. Shane. Q    I want to ask about Paul Manafort here, too.  Are you saying he wasn’t disappointed to learn, in the last 24 hours, that his chief strategist worked for Vladimir Putin’s -- MR. SPICER:  I don’t -- no, no -- because again, you’re -- Q    What was his reaction -- MR. SPICER:  I don’t know, because the story that came out this morning said that he had had client.  Paul has put out a statement that suggests this is what he did, this is how he handled it, there were -- I mean, you’ve all read the same.  We have not spent a ton of time going to investigate what he did for that client a decade ago. Q    Is the President disappointed to learn that this was -- MR. SPICER:  I really have not discussed the President’s -- I know what he has made very clear:  He hired him to do a job, he did the job well, he got him over the finish line.  On August 19th, he was let go of the campaign for the reasons that I have mentioned. Q    Can you say if Paul Manafort played any role in the hiring of any people in the federal government after the election?  Did he advise the President? MR. SPICER:  Not to my knowledge, at all. John. Q    Thank you, Sean.  Going back to the American Health Care Act, there was always nervousness that moving too quickly on it would leave some very dangerous points in the details.  Several publications, including Sara’s, reported today that as a result of a change of a few words, veterans who benefitted from a program called Veterans Affairs, or had the option of getting tax credits, would not get neither under the new legislation, and that 7 million veterans would be cost healthcare.  Is the administration following this, and is urging Congress to do anything about it? MR. SPICER:  Most veterans get their healthcare either through TRICARE or through Medicare, if they’re over 65 or a combination thereof, correct? Q    Well -- but there’s two programs.  One is the Veterans Affairs program, and the other is the option -- this is under the current law -- to have tax credits.  And my understanding, again, from Sara’s publication this morning and several others, is that 7 million veterans could possibly lose both under this program. MR. SPICER:  I would have to follow-up with you.  I’m not aware of any modifications to TRICARE in particular that would have that effect. Kristen. Q    Sean, thanks.  On Monday, the President accused former President Obama and Democrats of rushing through the healthcare law -- jamming it through -- when, in fact, they actually debated it for about a year.  This healthcare law was rolled out about 15 days ago.  So don’t you run the risk of rushing this through, of not giving it enough time for public debate? MR. SPICER:  I think Republicans have talked about repealing and replacing Obamacare since 2010.  We’ve campaigned on it in every election since.  The principles that are in a lot of these have been very public for a long time.  And -- Q    Understood.  But you just rolled out the specifics, Sean.  You just rolled out the actual -- MR. SPICER:  And it’s gone through three committees, two of which had unanimous Republican support. Q    Just a few days ago.   MR. SPICER:  I understand that.  But we’re working it through the process.  This was something the President campaigned on, told the American people would be his top priority.  Republicans who ran for the House and Senate said that it would be a top priority.  It’s something that they talked about for seven years, Kristen.  So to suggest that we’re rushing anything -- I think we’ve done this very, very, very deliberately, and very responsibly to make sure that people could read it.   So again, with all due respect to the folks who tackled this in the past, we actually put the bill online, let everyone in the entire world read it, didn’t jam it through and, to quote former Speaker Pelosi, say, if you want to read the bill, wait until we pass it.  We actually let the American people and the entire world read what was in it, watch the process occur, and I think that is a much more open and transparent process. Q    Let me just ask you a quick question about the terror attack.  You said that the President has been briefed.  He also spoke with Prime Minister Theresa May.  Can you give us any more information about who may have been behind it?  And should Americans have any concern, or are there any security changes that they should expect -- MR. SPICER:  No, that would be highly irresponsible at this point.  I know the British government is investigating this as an act of terrorism at this moment.  So for me to sort of get out and ahead of -- I know our homeland security team and our national security team are in contact with them.  Secretary Tillerson has issued a statement, as has Homeland Security Secretary Kelly. So we are continuing to monitor the situation.  We’re in touch with officials in the British government.  As I mentioned, as I was walking out here, the President was finishing up a call with Prime Minister May, and so we’ll try to have an additional readout to you, to the extent that that’s possible.  But we’re going to provide the assistance we can to the British government to help get to the bottom of this.  At this time, it would be highly irresponsible for us to get out in front of British officials.   Charlie. Q    You mentioned that there is no plan B, that plan A is the only vehicle -- the only train leaving the station, I believe you said.  Does that mean if the plan fails -- if the bill fails, will the President move on to other issues he’s concerned about, like trade, and leave Obamacare in place?  And if so, how long is he comfortable with leaving it in place? MR. SPICER:  Well, as I mentioned -- I mean, we’re not going to leave it in place because we’re going to repeal and replace it tomorrow, move it through the Senate, and the President will sign the bill.  We continue to see the enthusiasm and momentum coming to our direction.  So I’m not looking -- as I mentioned, we’re not looking at a plan B.  We have plan A, it’s going to pass, and we’re going to go from there. Jessica. Q    I’m going to talk about China for moment.  Do you now have the ability to formally announce the dates for when President Xi visits the United States? MR. SPICER:  I do not know at this time. Q    Why not? MR. SPICER:  Because that’s not how it works.  Because that’s something that we continue to work with President Xi and the Chinese government to coordinate the final dates and times.  And then obviously we coordinate the announcement with them as well.  But trust me, when we’re ready, we’ll let you and everyone else know. Q    And are you going to be prepared to talk about the parameters of the bilateral relationship at that time? MR. SPICER:  I’m sure that -- my guess is there will be a lot to discuss at that time. Jeff. Q    Sean, has the President asked the FBI director or the NSA or any other agencies involved to come here to the White House and brief him on this new information, or is it just the intel chair?  And if so, why not? MR. SPICER:  Well, Jeff, it just happened.  So it’s a silly question to ask me, literally as I’m walking out here, when the Chairman was wrapping up an event saying that he is announcing that he is coming down here.  It’s not like we picked up the phone and then called everyone else.  The first step is to actually hear what he has to say and to find out who else he’s briefed, where he’s got that information from, and then we’ll take the next steps going forward.   Q    Is this the first of several meetings, though?  Do you believe he would like to have the FBI director come in?  MR. SPICER:  I don’t know.  It’s literally -- it literally just happened as I was walking out here.  So to suggest that other steps have occurred, until that briefing occurs we’ll see what this leads to.  I don’t know. Q    What’s the state of his credibility tonight?  The Wall Street Journal, which has been very supportive of his candidacy and agenda, simply raised a question that he is not doing very well, and they said he could be on the verge of being a “fake President.”  What do you believe the state of his credibility is as we sit here today in week nine? MR. SPICER:  I think the President has made several promises to the American people, and he’s kept them.  He appointed Neil Gorsuch as the judge, which was one of 20 people on a list.  He withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.  He established a five-year lobbying ban and a foreign ban on -- lifetime, which is all what he said he was going to do.   He said he was going to cut regulations, and he did that.  He said he was going to start to bring back jobs -- he did that.  He said that he was going to start to pay real attention and respect taxpayers, bringing down costs.  He’s already done that.  He’s backed a plan to repeal and replace Obamacare.  We’ve talked about that ad nauseam.  He’s talked about putting forth a budget that puts defense first -- he did that.  He took action on Dakota and Keystone Pipeline -- he did that. I think when it comes to the President making promises to the American people and keeping them, he’s got a pretty high record of doing it. Peter. Q    Sean, if I could ask you about the conversation we’ve been having about Paul Manafort, but not specific to Paul Manafort.  When Michael Flynn’s name came up at the time, having not registered as a foreign agent, there was a lot of focus on the vetting process that goes into individuals.  Back then you said, “We trust people to fill out the appropriate forms that they need to.  He has been very” -- referring to the President -- “he has been very committed to making sure we institute high standards here and we’re held to them.” So given your words, is it sufficient to trust the information that the people you hire give you?  And can you say with certainty with right now that there isn’t anybody else that’s working in the interests of another foreign government working for this government right now? MR. SPICER:  It’s a good question, Peter, because there’s a big difference between working for a campaign or an entity where there’s no forms to fill out -- when you work for the United States government, especially here in the White House, you fill out a security clearance form, you fill out an employment form that asks certain questions under the penalty of law. Those questions --  Q    And Michael Flynn still got through, I guess.   MR. SPICER:  Hold on.  No, well -- but again, he filled out forms under the penalty of law.  I don’t know what was on his forms or what not was on his forms.  Remember, what the President let him go for was not being truthful to the Vice President, not necessarily for what was on a form, which I do not know what he filled out or did not fill out. If somebody fills out a form here, an SF-86, a security clearance form, or another employment document, and lies on that form or misleads, then they’re going to face the penalty of law on that.  That’s a big difference between saying when someone was hired on a campaign or another entity, that they should disclose everything in their past whether or not they -- who their clients were.  But again, I mean, if someone presented a résumé and it was faulty, sure, I think that if that was -- as you recall, there was another person during the transition that was named to a position that was discussed as not being truthful with some of their works.  We let them go. People write things.  They have jobs.  They describe themselves a certain way.  And every time that I’m aware of that we’ve had an incident where someone has not been forthright and truthful, we’ve let them go.  But when you work for the United States government, you actually fill out security clearance forms, employment forms under the penalty of law.  None of those cases occurred in the past.  And to dredge up someone’s work from a decade ago -- it’s not that Paul wasn’t truthful, just to be clear -- you’re trying to conflate something that’s there.  You’re trying to make the accusation that somehow he was dishonest or distruthful. Q    I’m not asking about Paul Manafort -- MR. SPICER:  No, you are. Q    I’m not asking about Paul Manafort at all. MR. SPICER:  Who are you asking about? Q    In fact, what I’m asking is, can you say with certainty that right now -- that there’s nobody working for this White House that is presently working in the interest of a foreign government? MR. SPICER:  I can tell you that every form has been filled out --  Q    So you trust that the information is -- MR. SPICER:  Absolutely.  You’ve got to -- people who are filling out forms -- so to sit here and ask me whether I can vouch for -- whatever it is -- a few hundred people that have filled out everything, that would be ridiculous for me to stand here and suggest that I possibly could. What I can tell you is, under the penalty of law, every single person has filled out a form that is being vetted by whatever level of classification that they need to get by the appropriate law enforcement agencies or HR entities.  But I can’t prevent somebody from fully disclosing everything on their taxes or filling out a form.  What I can tell you is that -- and if there is an instance brought to our attention where someone has misled it, either they will be referred to the appropriate law enforcement agency or dismissed, or appropriate action will be taken. But yes, there is no tolerance for that. Q    And then very quickly, in regards to Devin Nunes and the fact that he’s going to come today and the comments that you began the briefing by telling us -- on March 4th, the President tweeted:  “How low has President Obama gone to tapp my phones during the very sacred election process.  This is Nixon/Watergate.  Bad (or sick) guy!”  Does the President stand by his statement that President Obama is a “bad (or sick) guy”? MR. SPICER:  I think the President’s tweets stand for themselves. Q    So he thinks he’s a “bad (or sick) guy.” MR. SPICER:  I’m going to answer the question -- Q    Okay, but you said it stood for itself, so I was asking.   MR. SPICER:  I know.  I think the President’s tweets speak for themselves.  As for the rest of the tweets, let’s see, as we’ve mentioned before, how this process evolves and what information we can further gather up. Q    Thanks, Sean.  On the executive order on energy independence, that’s been delayed for several weeks now.  Can you -- MR. SPICER:  Hold on, why would it be delayed?  We never announced them. Q    Your office said that it was going to be released several weeks ago.  It wasn’t.  And then there were reports consequently that said it would be released, and it hasn’t been.  So can you give us -- MR. SPICER:  I don’t -- with all due respect, I don’t believe I ever announced that that was scheduled to come out. Q    Okay.  Can you tell us when it will be released? MR. SPICER:  No. Q    And also, in it, it addresses the Clean Power Plan, which is the Obama-era climate change regulation.  And there is apparently no replacement opportunity in that executive order. MR. SPICER:  Can I just -- I’m going to cut you off here.  We’ve discussed executive orders in the past.  I’ve told before -- until they’re ready to be announced, I don’t comment on the scheduling or the -- Q    This is a policy question -- MR. SPICER:  I know it is, but you’re asking me the contents of it.  It’s not a policy question. Q    No, no, I just haven’t been able to finish my question. MR. SPICER:  Okay. Q    Thank you.  So apparently there’s no replacement for it.  That is the answer to a Supreme Court ruling in 2007.  Does the administration feel that it is legally bound to regulate greenhouse gases? MR. SPICER:  Let’s wait and see what the executive order says or doesn’t say.  I don’t want to get into -- Q    (Inaudible.) MR. SPICER:  I understand the question.  I’m not getting ahead of this at this point. Q    Sean, will President Trump hold a news conference on the attack?  And also, on his upcoming travel, do you have any guidance on other rallies that he may have?  Because that’s where he sends his message out to the American people, including social media. MR. SPICER:  He sends his message out in a lot of ways.  If there are rallies, then I would refer you to the campaign website to get updates there.  As for future press conferences, stay tuned on when the next one is going to be. Q    Sean, when you learned that the members of the President’s team may have been in contact with someone who the intelligence community and a federal judge has deemed to be a little bit dodgy, does that give you any pause at all? MR. SPICER:  Who are you referring to? Q    The people who are subject to the FISA order. MR. SPICER:  I’m sorry, can you rephrase the question? Q    It’s a reference to Nunes.  Members of the President’s team, whether it’s the transition or the campaign, are said to have been in contact -- being picked up by when they were in contact with someone who was the subject of a FISA order.  Does that give you any pause at all given the things that you haven’t known before about Manafort and Flynn, et cetera? MR. SPICER:  Not until we know further details.  I think to get ahead of what we know -- until we know what the chairman is going to brief him on, for me to suggest what he is going to reveal to him about whom and when and how would be inappropriate, at this point, to comment on. I’m going to go to Elizabeth Crisp out of Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Q    Hi, Sean, thanks.  Last year, Louisiana suffered one of the worst flooding disasters in our nation’s history.  Today, thousands of people remain displaced, and communities are struggling to rebuild.  With support from the Obama administration, the state received about $1.6 billion in flood assistance through the CDBG program.  The state is seeking $2 billion more in federal aid, and our governor has asked for President Trump’s support. So my question is twofold.  What is the Trump administration’s position exactly on the federal government’s role in long-term disaster recovery efforts?  And also, can Louisiana count on this administration’s support for additional flood recovery assistance? MR. SPICER:  Thanks, Elizabeth.  I believe the process works such that the governor makes a request to FEMA; FEMA then puts it through the process.  I’m not aware of what the request is or where it stands in the process, and I would refer you back to FEMA on that. Q    This is actually -- this is aid separate from FEMA.  It’s the long-term part to this.   MR. SPICER:  Okay.  So I know that the budget that was just presented allows for substantial funding for humanitarian assistance, including disaster refugee program funding in priority areas.  I think at this point the budget process has just kicked off, and we will now begin the process of working with Congress on -- them draft a budget, and talk about our priorities and where they go forward.   The President will have a full budget out in May, and so that will be an appropriate time to do that.  But I would refer you back to the governor at this point, and figure out where that stands in the process. Cecilia. Q    Can you say today, with certainty, that Paul Manafort never tried to pressure or encourage the campaign to take on a more pro-Russia position on any issues? MR. SPICER:  Not that I’m aware of.  I can’t -- but there’s nothing that suggests that that was the case. Q    And on Nunes, from what you know about what he has said so far, is the White House viewing this, in any way, as vindication of the President’s wiretapping tweets? MR. SPICER:  I would refer you to his comment specifically.  Until we know what he is going to brief the President on, I don’t want to have to get ahead of this.  I think, obviously, the suggestion that he made that people were what they call “unmasked,” meaning that an American citizen who is caught up in a surveillance has, by rule of law, has their name protected; the idea that individuals’ names were unmasked and let known suggests -- raises serious questions:  Why was that name unmasked?  What was the intention of doing that?   There’s a lot of questions that I think his statement raises, and I hope that we can continue to get to the bottom of.  But right now, we just don’t -- we’re not there yet.  I think that there are a series of questions that need to get answered as to what happened, why it happened, and hopefully we will be able to share more with you going forward. Todd. Q    Thanks, Sean.  On the border wall, the President’s budget blueprint calls for a couple of dozen lawyers who are going to be dedicated to acquiring land.  And I think people are wondering just how aggressive the eminent domain effort is going to be, and how that squares with respect for private property rights. MR. SPICER:  As I recall, during the Bush administration similar efforts were undertaken to secure the appropriate property that would be where a fence or a wall, in this case, would be.  So this is nothing new.  This is the government doing what it has to do to protect its border.  I think there’s nobody in America, and I daresay the world, that didn’t believe that the President was committed to building a wall.  And I think that we’re going to take the steps necessary to fulfill that promise, to make sure that we have to. So I know that the steps are starting to be taken both in terms of the funding and the administrative steps, to see the President’s vision fulfilled on this pledge that he made to the American people.  And we’ll go from there. Q    Is there any update on how the wall will be financed? MR. SPICER:  I think both the 2017 supplemental has some initial funding in it.  The 2018 budget does, and has two -- Q    But that's general.  I’m talking about where the money will come from. MR. SPICER:  Right.  And I think that we’re going to continue to do it.  Right now, the initial funding that was put in place will allow it to begin.  The President has been very clear that using existing resources we’d go forward.  There would be continuing discussions about the financing of the wall, both in terms of how we will pay for it and who will be the source of that payment. Q    Has he given up on Mexico paying for it? MR. SPICER:  No, not at all. Thank you guys, very much.  I’ll see you tomorrow.  We’ll try to have updates on the subjects that are currently pending.  Thank you. END  2:40 P.M. EDT

22 марта, 21:23

Federal staffers panicked by conservative media attacks

A spate of stories in Breitbart and other outlets have singled out individual career employees, questioning their loyalty to Trump.

22 марта, 12:46

Hey, Here Are Some People Who Really, Really Should Not Run For President

March 2017 is probably far too early to start considering the next presidential election, and who the Democrats might send into the breach to take on Donald Trump (assuming he runs for re-election, of course). That said, there’s already an awful lot of rumor and sigh in the news transom about people having sudden-onset political stirrings, including those setting their sights on a 2020 presidential run. Some of them are the last vestiges of the Clinton network, still high on that old Third Way supply, banking on the belief that the country isn’t yet done with late-1990s nostalgia. But a new group of would-be candidates is on the rise ― extravagantly wealthy wannabes stirred both by the Clinton-era Democratic Party embrace of meritocratic elites and the success of Trump’s outsider run. And if they all have something in common, it’s that they are all the worst possible people for the Democrats to run for office, if you consider the lessons of the 2016 election. What were those lessons? Well, for one thing, 2016 was the year that the Democratic Party’s obsessions with the professional class finally caught up with it. Amid roaring calls for solutions to widely felt economic inequities, Hillary Clinton ran a campaign largely based on social niceties and boardroom diversification, with some incremental crumbs thrown the way of middle- and working-class strivers. None of it added up to a compelling enough case against the GOP’s con-man class-traitor to win the election. (And tellingly, some taken-for-granted Democratic strongholds fell to Trump at the exact moment Democrats needed them most.) But if there’s one thing both political parties share, it’s that they are slow to learn their lessons. The fear that the Democrats might stay the course, despite Clinton’s failings, suffused the atmosphere in the recent Democratic National Committee election ― and those who wanted a decisive change are still not sure they’re getting one with the election of former Obama Labor Secretary Tom Perez. That some of the Clinton family’s most dedicated hangers-on feel like they are the person to run for office in the Trump era likely won’t soothe their ravaged souls, either. And then there are the unfortunate side effects of Trump’s win itself, which has apparently touched off a whole new round of thinking as to whether it would be a good idea to examine this moment in history ― in which a brash billionaire-celebrity outsider has ascended to the highest political office in the world ― and consider whether the time is right to have more brash billionaire-celebrity outsiders try to run for president. That every single day of the Trump presidency has been a scintillating demonstration of the Peter Principle seems to not deter anybody. Instead, the event of a complete and utter billionaire buffoon with no political experience has suggested to a slew of other buffoons that, hey, why not me? A century or two of yawning inequality has left us with no shortage of such buffoons. Hundreds of these folks have ascended to the dizzying heights of our American oligarchy ― or were born there ― and now gaze downward, gripped with the firm conviction that they should run all that they see below. “Stay in your lane,” once the byword of America’s true and most successful innovators, is advice too easily chucked aside by today’s captains of industry. And so, “meritocracy” has become something of a dirty word. Nowadays, those who have found success in one area are just as likely not to think that their success is translatable to other endeavors. When this turns out not to be the case, comical hijinks ensue. Perhaps the apotheosis of this rich-people folly came when New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg thought it would be a good idea to appoint his friend, Hearst executive Cathleen Black, to the position of New York City schools chancellor ― despite the fact that her relevant experience could best be summed up as “not any.” It was a huge disaster, but did anyone learn a damn thing from this experience? (Hmmm, let me check: Oh, yeah, Betsy DeVos is the U.S. secretary of education. So, no, nobody did.) Still it’s one thing for Republicans to consider running the play ― they’ve obviously managed to make it work, at least in the narrow electoral sense. And their billionaire was no obscure figure. Entering the election with 100-percent name identification, and a years-long run in American living rooms as a fictional, all-knowing business leader, gave Trump legs up that your random billionaire lacks. Replicating either side of the last presidential election is a losing move for Democrats. But it’s a very tempting one: It’s a notion that allows the easy-breezy fantasy that a massive party overhaul isn’t necessary, and that all of their problems can be ameliorated by either billionaires with quick fixes and cash on-hand, or Clinton 2016-redux candidates with better data and marketing. With that in mind, here are a bunch of people whose political ambitions should be extinguished with all deliberate haste. Bob Iger: Who, pray tell, is Bob Iger? Well, for a while, he was a member of Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum, a collection of CEO heavyweights who were going to help Trump #MAGA, for which Iger was well suited as the chief executive of Walt Disney. SInce then, it’s been reported that he is mulling making a run for the White House in 2020. Hmmm, maybe he hasn’t thought through this whole politics thing? Apparently not, considering that his inspiration to maybe run for president stems from the fact that he says “a lot of people ― a lot ― have urged me to seek political office.” I mean, maybe set your sights a little lower, first time out? J.B. Pritzker: Having endeavored mightily to paint the past two Republican presidential nominees as out-of-touch wealthy elites ― and having failed to distinguish their own last presidential nominee as something different ― are Democrats stupid enough to make an about-face and run their own billionaire?No, J.B. Pritzker wouldn’t make it out of Iowa without a negative vote total. But even though he’s recently been sniffing around the possibility of running in the Illinois gubernatorial election, that hasn’t stopped him from floating to friends that he’s considering making a run for the White House as well ― or so we’re told by one recipient of such a flatulent flotation. Pritzker, an heir to the Hyatt Hotel fortune, had designs on being commerce secretary under Hillary Clinton, just as his sister Penny Pritzker was under Obama. Just stop. Sheryl Sandberg: According to some election-year rumors, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg was in the running to serve as Hillary Clinton’s treasury secretary. Since then, she’s been rumored to be considering a White House run, amid occasional denials. At the same time, she has recently been more open to Trump’s overtures. She was one of those Silicon Valley leaders who met with Trump prior to the inauguration. As Slate’s Helaine Owen notes, Sandberg made no public mention of the Women’s March that took place afterwards, a curious move for the “Lean In” maven ― at least until you consider the fact that “Lean In” is a disingenuous brand-washing scheme, and that Sandberg is especially unwilling to criticize her C-suite peers for crimes against women in the workforce. Howard Schultz: The Starbucks CEO has said “never say never” to a presidential run. Indeed, Schultz would be the fever-dream candidate of the No Labels set: his political “brand,” insofar that he has one, is essentially based around his core belief that everyone in politics should be a lot nicer to each other. This worldview most famously manifested itself in the short-lived March 2015 “Race Together” campaign, in which Schultz ― after having mostly eliminated manual espresso machines in Starbucks stores ― tasked baristas with bridging America’s racial divide. If you want a president who believes that all of America’s problems can be solved by constantly throwing corporate culture at them, he’s your guy. Mark Zuckerberg: Hey, let’s see: Do we really want the founder and CEO of Facebook ― a business that depends on learning as much about your private life as possible, more and more every single day, always probing and collecting, never ceasing in its sleepless drive to know everything about you, better than you could possibly know yourself, until the very idea of “privacy” becomes an obsolete concept and individual autonomy is subordinated to a set of bloodless algorithms and advertisers are straight-up living inside your dreams ― to be our president? I dunno, man. As Big Brother might say, that sounds doubleplusungood! Chelsea Clinton: Anyone else notice how after the election, Chelsea Clinton has been slowly creeping into our lives? There’s been this gradual ramping up of Total Chelsea Clinton Awareness, and along with it, the gradual ramping up of yet another Clinton’s political career ― even though, up until now, Chelsea Clinton has essentially been nothing more than a lodestar for other people’s money to find their way into Clinton bank accounts. (I read here that she was paid $600,000 to do journalism? Holy cats, how long did it take Jimmy Breslin to make $600,000?) Anyway, she’s been tweeting lately ― tweets that feel a little too clever, but not enough to be thought of as “edgy” ― the sort of social media output that makes you want to look for hidden wires. Hillary Clinton got a lot of stick ― unfairly so ― for lacking authenticity, but her daughter’s recent re-emergence feels like a ghost in the shell being willed into existence by a team of P.R. firms. We don’t suspect we have to fear a run in 2020 from Chelsea. But let’s please add every year in the future, ever, to that safe space. Terry McAuliffe: The biggest beneficiary of the Clinton family to not have actual Clinton family DNA (probably, anyway!), McAuliffe revived his political career by winning the 2013 gubernatorial election in Virginia. It was close. Too close, considering he was running against a throwback Christian conservative ideologue in the form of Ken Cuccinelli. During the 2016 campaign, McAuliffe distinguished himself by telling reporters at the Democratic National Convention that Hillary Clinton was definitely going to support the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal after the election. The TPP, if you recall, was the thing convention-goers booed and jeered more lustily than Donald Trump. McAuliffe and his spin-team later tried to walk this back, saying that it was just McAuliffe who supported the TPP, which ― is still not good? Anyway, he is basically kooky, has a lot of funny-money connections, and suffers from the fact that Virginia has a one-term term limit for governor, leaving him with an itch that has to be scratched, probably with a huge pile of donor money that could be put to any number of more productive purposes. Andrew Cuomo: The Clintons and Cuomos have never been particularly warm to each other, but the two political dynasties, eternally orbiting one another, have managed to seamlessly apply the transactional-slash-triangulating political style they share in common to their interpersonal relationships. Now, as rumors mount that Cuomo is considering a White House bid, he’s welcoming former Clinton campaign staff into his fold, where they’ll likely discover similarities to their natural habitat. Liberals have, in recent months, thrilled to Cuomo’s stance on fracking and his defense of immigrants, but they’re setting themselves up for huge disappointments. Cuomo, who is astonishingly petty and mean-minded, has done more to dampen the fortunes of New York’s Democratic Party than New York Republicans have. And he’s corrupt as all get-out to boot ― his most notable accomplishment as governor was to shut down the Moreland Commission anti-corruption inquiry as soon as the probe starting sniffing around targets with ties to the governor ― and getting away with it. That, right there, is a murderer’s row of the exact wrong candidates for the Democratic Party, who’d be better advised to begin the hard work of rebuilding their party’s foundations and restoring a deep bench of new policymakers with fresh ideas. This is not the moment to try to lock arms with a gaggle of dilettante 1-percenters, promising to do what Trump pulled off. And it’s certainly not the time to try to revive the fortunes of their political cousins ― the broken remnants of the Clinton machine. Drown these candidacies in the bathtub, right now. Ryan Grim contributed. ~~~~~ Jason Linkins edits “Eat The Press” for The Huffington Post and co-hosts the HuffPost Politics podcast “So, That Happened.” Subscribe here, and listen to the latest episode below.   -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

21 марта, 03:17

Tillerson Bumbles Around Asia

The secretary of state’s first big trip abroad did not go well.

19 марта, 09:18

ЕС ищет путь к торговле США

При этом ранее Германия также начала давить на G20 и требовать поддержать проект свободной торговли с США. Соглашение может быть подписано на фоне опасений и напряженной позиции со стороны Америки.

19 марта, 09:17

Тяжелая встреча Трампа и Меркель

Москва, 17 марта - "Вести.Экономика". Меркель - с точки зрения идеологии самый консервативный правитель одной из основных стран в ЕС. Но при всем при этом эта дама также близка к Железному канцлеру, как любой другой немецкий лидер со времен Бисмарка два столетия назад.

19 марта, 08:40

Трамп – Меркель: «Все, чего я хочу, – это честности»

Президент США Дональд Трамп не стал при журналистах пожимать руку канцлеру Германии Ангеле Меркель и не скрывал скуки при общении с ней. Тем не менее первая встреча политиков в Вашингтоне обошлась без громких скандалов и резких заявлений, а по ее итогам Меркель даже заявила о «необходимости улучшать отношения с Россией». О «столкновении цивилизаций», случившемся 17 марта, — в обзоре иностранных СМИ, подготовленном «БИЗНЕС Online».

18 марта, 20:59

Министры G20 отказались защищать свободную торговлю и бороться с протекционизмом

Министры финансов стран "Большой двадцатки" на ежегодной встрече не смогли договориться о защите свободной торговли и борьбу с протекционизмом после того, как США отказались подписывать документ. Об этом передает ВВС. В коммюнике, опубликованном по итогам встречи в немецком городе Баден-Баден, не было слов о том, что страны берут на себя обязательства в борьбе с протекционизмом...

18 марта, 17:18

Первое испытание для АТР в эпоху Трампа

В Винья-дель-Мар (Чили) проходит встреча представителей стран-членов Транстихоокеанского партнерства, которых Дональд Трамп во время президентской кампании успел обвинить во всех грехах и в первый же рабочий день на посту президента оставил на произвол судьбы.

18 марта, 11:05

Бывший глава Минфина США назвал выход из соглашения о ТТП грубой ошибкой

Бывший министр финансов США Генри Полсон осудил выход Соединенных Штатов из соглашения о Транстихоокеанском партнерстве (ТТП).

17 декабря 2016, 07:11

Заметки к некрологу Транстихоокеанскому партнерству

21 ноября избранный президент Дональд Трамп прекратил мучения марафонцев, продвигавших проект Транстихоокеанского партнерства. Он заявил, что в первый официальный день его президентства США выйдут из Соглашения о Транстихоокеанском партнерстве, которое было подписано в феврале этого года, но еще не было ратифицировано.По условиям Соглашения, если США его не ратифицируют, оно не вступает в силу даже при ратификации всеми остальными сторонами. То есть, заявление Трампа означает одно – попытка создать тихоокеанскую зону свободной торговли на кабальных условиях для всех участников по правилам, диктуемым США, провалилась.Одним из главных видимых «лоббистов» ТТП выступал «Центр стратегических и международных исследований», самая влиятельная в мире негосударственная аналитическая структура, работающая в области безопасности и оборонной политики, негласный хаб, связывающий оборонные структуры стран по второму каналу дипломатии. От CSIS проект формально курировал Майкл Грин, руководитель направления японских исследований.Майкл Грин. Источник: csis.orgДля того, чтобы понять, почему и для чего США вступили в инициативу, которую не они начали (первый вариант Соглашения в 2006 году подписала «Тихоокеанская четверка» – Бруней, Чили, Новая Зеландия и Перу, а США вступили лишь в 2008 году, Япония – и того позже), надо обратиться к их собственным заявлениям.Переговоры по ТТП все эти годы шли в режиме строгой секретности. Соглашение было подписано 4 февраля 2016 года в Окленде, Новая Зеландия. Страны-подписанты: Австралия, Бруней, Вьетнам, Канада, Малайзия, Мексика, Новая Зеландия, Перу, Сингапур, США, Чили, Япония.А в апреле 2016 года CSIS выпустил аналитическую записку по проекту, где предельно четко обозначил цели США в регионе и цель ТТП: «исследования показывают, что в Азии в центре находится неуверенность в связи с растущей мощью Китая, и наши союзники и партнеры рассчитывают на лидерство США в регионе». При этом, указал CSIS, в настоящий момент центр «борьбы за власть и влияние» сместился в Азию, и в таких условиях единственным способом обеспечить лидерство США в регионе и гарантировать способность устанавливать «новые правила региональной торговли и инвестиций» – это Транстихоокеанское партнерство, в котором главными стратегическими партнерами США являются Япония и Южная Корея.Для этой цели необходимо опереться на «три столпа», которые обеспечивали и обеспечивают лидерство США в азиатском регионе. К столпам относятся:1. сеть альянсов и военное присутствие США в Японии и Южной Корее с целью сдерживания потенциальных противников;2. ценности, которые укрепляют поддержку открытого регионального и глобального порядка, основанного на букве закона и ответственности участников. Под ценностями понимаются демократические нормы;3. обязательство расширять торговлю и экономическое взаимодействие (создание привлекательной зоны торговли, куда втягивались бы государства, ранее находившиеся в орбите России).Далее было сказано, что благодаря этим трем столпам стала возможной «победа над Советской империей». Во-первых, военное сдерживание, во-вторых, «распространение демократии в 1980-х годах высушило болота потенциальной коммунистической революции в государствах Азии», и, наконец, новый региональный порядок переманил к себе государства, откалывавшиеся от советского блока. Надо ли гадать, что это deja vu означает, что на месте СССР сейчас находится Китай, а схема работает на сдерживание его роста и экспансии.Дискуссия: а надо ли влезать в ТТП?Все последнее годы нарастали дебаты на тему, а стоит ли государствам на таких жестких условиях ввязываться в эфемерную «зону свободной торговли»? Противостояние было настолько серьезным, что в 2014 году был раздут скандал, в ходе которого CSIS обвинили в том, что он, действуя как иностранный агент, на японские деньги двигал проект Транстихоокеанского партнерства.Наибольшие вопросы вызывало несколько пунктов. Прежде всего, речь шла о привилегии транснациональных корпораций отстаивать свои права в международном суде, обходя судебную систему страны, в которой они ведут инвестиционную и производственную деятельность. То есть права инвесторов ставились выше прав принимающих государств. Эта практика получила название «Разрешение споров между инвестором и принимающей инвестиции страной» (Investor-state dispute settlement, «ISDS») и применяется при малейшем нарушении прав компаний против руководства тех стран, которые нарушили права. Под нарушением прав можно понимать что угодно вплоть до требования утилизировать отходы производства.Споры были настолько жаркими, что CSIS официально выпускал заявления, в которых утверждал, что процедура ISDS вполне рабочая. Так, 29 октября 2014 года CSIS выпустил рабочий документ под названием «Investor-State Dispute Settlement: A Reality Check», в котором было указано, что процедура успешно применялась американскими компаниями в Латинской Америке.Насколько успешно она применялась компаниями в Латинской Америке, можно понять из случая с компанией Renco Group Inc. миллиардера Айры Реннерта (Ira Rennert), которая имела горнодобывающие мощности в Перу (это потенциальный подписант ТТП, кстати). Перу на своей шкуре попробовало, чем обернется ТТП для его потенциальных членов, если они посмеют указывать инвесторам, приносящим деньги в их экономику.В ответ на требование властей снизить загрязнение окружающей среды и убрать свои отходы компания применила механизм ISDS и попыталась отсудить $800 млн. Непосредственным основанием для иска стал отзыв лицензии у завода Doe Run Peru в 2010 году. После пятилетнего разбирательства, 15 июля 2016 года суд Международного центра урегулирования инвестиционных споров (International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID)) отказал в удовлетворении иска американского миллиардера. Результат достигнут, хищнику дали по морде, но нервов измотано немало, производство закрыто, рабочие места потеряны, проблема загрязнения окружающей среды не решена.Среди других спорных моментов стоит назвать очень жесткие требования в части интеллектуальной собственности, тарифного регулирования, прав на изготовление генериков лекарств и т.д. и т.п.2 мая 2016 года нидерландское отделение Greenpeace слило в сеть тексты Соглашения, заставив Обаму огрызнуться: «Другие страны должны играть по правилам, которые устанавливает Америка и ее партнеры, и никак иначе. ТТП – как раз то, что позволит нам это сделать… Правила меняются. США, а не страны вроде Китая должны их писать». Вот на такой «дружественной волне» готовилась ратификация документа. О силе противостояния можно говорить уже потому, что стратегия «переориентации на Азию», принятая на вооружение администрацией Обамы, опиралась на Министерство обороны. Оно пропихивало через правительство военную доктрину для АТР, которую написали специалисты CSIS. Дабы не было сомнений в поддержке, Минобороны на своем сайте написало: «Обзор CSIS… отвечает общему подходу Министерства обороны к поддержке переориентации отношения США на АТР. Он поддерживает усилия США по укреплению, усилению и расширению наших альянсов и стимулирует создание сотрудничества в области обороны с региональными партнерами. Его рекомендации созвучны усилиям министерства в части обновления оперативных концепций и военных возможностей с целью обеспечения того, чтобы вооруженные силы в будущем сохранили способность к сдерживанию и доминированию в возможных конфликтах».В общем, лобби более чем мощное. Чем дело кончилосьИ тут Дональд Трамп говорит, что это все пойдет в утиль, а ставка будет сделана на двусторонние партнерские отношения. Дальше происходят еще более интересные вещи. Япония, поспешив, ратифицирует документ 10 декабря. И влипает в крайне щекотливую ситуацию.14 декабря Трамп назначает госсекретарем (внимание!) члена совета попечителей CSIS Рекса У. Тиллерсона, владельца Exxon Mobil Corporation. Для того, чтобы было понятно, надо пояснить, что по правилам, руководство Центром стратегических и международных исследований осуществляет не директор, а совет попечителей. Ситуация с Японией становится еще более щекотливой.Рекс Тиллерсон. Источник: vesti.ruВ тот же день CSIS выпустил аналитическую записку, в которой признал, что не больно-то и надо было, и отказался от дальнейшей борьбы за Транстихоокеанское партнерство. А потом выдал страшно оригинальный «План В»: послать куда подальше всех партнеров по ТТП и удовлетвориться двусторонним соглашением с Японией, которая единственная из всех участников является стратегическим партнером. А потому ей нельзя позволить ударить в грязь лицом. Кстати, своё тоже спасти не помешает, хотя полный комплект двусторонних, и даже трехсторонних соглашений у США имеется.Вот такое печальное окончание. Впрочем, «партнеры» не сильно расстроились, что первая попытка создания зоны свободной торговли без США не вышла. Да, США сами развалили то начинание, которое перехватили и возглавили (что, кстати, очень напоминает общепринятую практику защиты национальных интересов, когда ответственные лица и структуры, завидев угрозу, должны ее зафиксировать, обезвредить, или, если она не обезвреживается, уничтожить… см. специализацию CSIS). Но президент Перу незамедлительно выдвинул свой план, назовем его «План С», - Педро Кучински предложил заменить соглашение о ТТП договором стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона без США, но с привлечением России и Китая. Оправдывая тем самым «пугалки» CSIS о том, что в отсутствие ТТП правила торговли в азиатском регионе будут устанавливать другие региональные союзы. Так что, история продолжается.

09 сентября 2016, 15:24

ГЕОэкономика. Чем грозит мнимое спокойствие мировой экономики?

Мировая экономика, несмотря на внешнее спокойствие, на самом деле продолжает испытывать серьезные трудности в своем развитии. Усилиями мировых Центральных банков острая фаза кризиса 2008 года была купирована. Однако внутренние диспропорции мировой экономики не преодолены. И значит, в любой момент мы можем стать свидетелями очередных неприятных событий. Смогут ли представители крупнейших экономик мира договориться между собой, чтобы как-то исправить ситуацию? Об этом расскажет Александр Кареевский в программе "Геоэкономика".

11 октября 2015, 23:00

«Крупнейшее торговое соглашение США поставит под угрозу российский экспорт»

Российские экспортеры столкнутся с более жесткой конкуренцией в Тихоокеанском регионе из-за создания нового торгового блока во главе с США. Под угрозой могут оказаться поставки алюминия, других металлов, леса, удобрений.

09 октября 2015, 07:04

Программа "Геоэкономика" от 8 октября 2015 года

Лидер президентской гонки в США среди демократов Хиллари Клинтон заявила, что не поддерживает соглашение о Транстихоокеанском партнерстве между США и 11 странами АТР. Верховный лидер Ирана запретил какие-либо переговоры с США. Банк России изучает возможности введения в РФ исламского банкинга. Цены на нефть остаются недалеко от годовых минимумов. Страдают и производители в Латинской Америке. Будьте в курсе самых актуальных новостей! Подписка на офиц. канал Россия24: http://bit.ly/subscribeRussia24TV Последние новости - http://bit.ly/LatestNews15 Вести в 11:00 - https://bit.ly/Vesti11-00-2015 Вести. Дежурная часть - https://bit.ly/DezhChast2015 Большие вести в 20:00 - http://bit.ly/Vesti20-00-2015 Вести в 23:00 - https://bit.ly/Vesti23-00-2015 Вести-Москва с Зеленским - https://bit.ly/VestiMoskva2015 Вести в субботу с Брилёвым - http://bit.ly/VestiSubbota2015 Вести недели с Киселёвым - http://bit.ly/VestiNedeli2015 Специальный корреспондент - http://bit.ly/SpecKor Воскресный вечер с Соловьёвым - http://bit.ly/VoskresnyVecher Поединок - https://bit.ly/Poedinok2015 Интервью - http://bit.ly/InterviewPL Реплика - http://bit.ly/Replika2015 Агитпроп - https://bit.ly/AgitProp Война с Поддубным - http://bit.ly/TheWar2015 Военная программа Сладкова - http://bit.ly/MilitarySladkov Россия и мир в цифрах - http://bit.ly/Grafiki Документальные фильмы - http://bit.ly/DocumentalFilms Вести.net - http://bit.ly/Vesti-net Викторина с Киселевым - https://bit.ly/Znanie-Sila

05 октября 2015, 16:20

США удалось достичь крупнейшего торгового соглашения за 20 лет

Представители США и 11 государств Тихоокеанского пояса достигли соглашения по договору о Транстихоокеанском партнерстве. Как отмечает Bloomberg, эта договоренность является крупнейшей для США за последние 20 лет

01 октября 2015, 23:39

Программа "Геоэкономика" от 1 октября 2015 года

Минэнерго считает, что у российских нефтегазовых компаний есть все шансы вернуться к работе над своими проектами в Иране. Неожиданно выросло число противников выхода Великобритании из состава Европейского союза. Америка не оставляет попытки захватить рынки Европы. Будьте в курсе самых актуальных новостей! Подписка на офиц. канал Россия24: http://bit.ly/subscribeRussia24TV Последние новости - http://bit.ly/LatestNews15 Вести в 11:00 - https://bit.ly/Vesti11-00-2015 Вести. Дежурная часть - https://bit.ly/DezhChast2015 Большие вести в 20:00 - http://bit.ly/Vesti20-00-2015 Вести в 23:00 - https://bit.ly/Vesti23-00-2015 Вести-Москва с Зеленским - https://bit.ly/VestiMoskva2015 Вести в субботу с Брилёвым - http://bit.ly/VestiSubbota2015 Вести недели с Киселёвым - http://bit.ly/VestiNedeli2015 Специальный корреспондент - http://bit.ly/SpecKor Воскресный вечер с Соловьёвым - http://bit.ly/VoskresnyVecher Поединок - https://bit.ly/Poedinok2015 Интервью - http://bit.ly/InterviewPL Реплика - http://bit.ly/Replika2015 Агитпроп - https://bit.ly/AgitProp Война с Поддубным - http://bit.ly/TheWar2015 Военная программа Сладкова - http://bit.ly/MilitarySladkov Россия и мир в цифрах - http://bit.ly/Grafiki Документальные фильмы - http://bit.ly/DocumentalFilms Вести.net - http://bit.ly/Vesti-net Викторина с Киселевым - https://bit.ly/Znanie-Sila

01 сентября 2014, 18:38

Новое слово в науке стратегического прогнозирования

На днях Центр военно-политических исследований МГИМО(У) МИД России подготовил аналитический доклад «Военно-политические аспекты прогнозирования мирового развития». Этот доклад, составленный под редакцией и при ведущей роли директора ЦВПИ профессора А.И.Подберезкина, посвящен методологическим вопросам прогнозирования военно-политической и военно-стратегической обстановки вокруг РФ на долгосрочную перспективу. Данную работу по праву можно назвать новым словом в науке стратегического прогнозирования. Ее наиболее сильной стороной является научная методология стратегического прогнозирования, прежде всего, в военно-политической области. Однако при определенных корректировках эта же методология может быть применена и в других областях, например, в экономике. Надо отметить, что до сих пор стратегические прогнозы в различных областях, как у нас, так и на Западе носили преимущественно интуитивный характер. Они, как правило, основывались на эмпирическом знании определенной группы экспертов и их субъективном видении международной обстановки. В принципе, интуитивные прогнозы не обязательно должны быть ошибочными. Если они разрабатываются грамотными экспертами, то могут вполне адекватно отражать реальность и тенденции политического развития. Однако, такие прогнозы всегда будут иметь оттенок субъективизма и зачастую вести к ошибочным выводам. Так недавно произошло с прогнозом А.Дынкина и В.Барановского, где утверждалось, что в мировом окружении России в 2014 году не произойдет кардинальных изменений[1]. Однако через несколько месяцев последовали события на Украине и ситуация принципиально изменилась. Этот просчет случился именно потому, что данный прогноз основывался на изначально неверной посылке о преобладании тенденции к «потере значения военной силы» в отношениях между ведущими мировыми державами. Более того, абсолютное большинство публикуемых прогнозов, особенно американских, создается в пропагандистских целях, в интересах информационного воздействия на другие государства и народы, а также на аудиторию собственной страны. Целью таких прогнозов является повлиять на общественное сознание, подтолкнуть умонастроения людей в определенном желаемом направлении или дезориентировать потенциальных противников и конкурентов. В таких прогнозах фактура и аналитика носят эклектичный характер и подгоняются под уже заданный результат. Естественно, рассматривать такие прогнозы как основу для реального военного и политического планирования совершенно неуместно. Научный подход к прогнозированию сценариев развития ВПО и СО предполагает, что они должны базироваться на множестве объективных факторов и, прежде всего, на основных тенденциях мирового развития. Как показано в докладе ЦВПИ, выявление этих тенденций должно быть стартовой позицией, отправной точкой составления любого научного прогноза. При этом тенденции мирового развития должны браться не с потолка и не быть отражением субъективных предпочтений и личной фантазии авторов, а выявляться путем использования аналитических методов исследования, базироваться на объективных исходных данных, научном понятийном аппарате с применением системного подхода. По существу, выявление основных тенденций мирового развития должно быть построено на цельной научной теории, отражающей закономерности исторического процесса. В докладе ЦВПИ в основу составления прогноза положена теория развития и взаимодействия мировых цивилизаций. Эта теория появилась уже достаточно давно. У ее основ стояли выдающиеся русские мыслители Н.Я.Данилевский и К.Н.Леонтьев, а на Западе – О.Шпенглер и А.Тойнби. Впервые данную теорию для составления прогноза мирового развития применил в 90-х годах прошлого века консервативный американский политолог Самюэл Хантингтон. В своей нашумевшей книге «Столкновение цивилизаций» он выдвинул концепцию о том, что различные цивилизации, как высшая форма культурной идентичности, приобретают в наше время особую значимость при анализе потенциала международных конфликтов.[2] По словам Хантингтона, «основным источником конфликтов в этом новом мире будет преимущественно не идеология и не экономика». «Наибольшие разногласия среди человечества и преобладающие источники конфликтов будут носить культурный характер», - отмечал он. Далее Хантингтон, утверждал, что, хотя «национальные государства и останутся наиболее влиятельными игроками на мировой арене», но главные конфликты мировой политики будут происходить «между странами и группами стран, принадлежащими к разным цивилизациям». «Столкновение цивилизаций будет доминировать в глобальной политике. Линии противоречий между цивилизациями станут линиями фронта будущего», - предупреждал он[3]. В то же время, Хантингтон, избрав для основы своего прогноза научную теорию, не пошел дальше в применении научной методологии стратегического прогнозирования. Поэтому в целом в его прогнозе проявились элементы субъективизма и внутренние противоречия. Он, например, правильно определил главный водораздел конфликта цивилизаций, как конфликта между Западной цивилизацией и другими цивилизациями. Но убедительно обосновать данный вывод с научной точки зрения он не смог. А это позволило критикам из либерального лагеря сразу же поставить его в целом правильный прогноз под сомнение. Между тем, в докладе ЦВПИ подробно описывается как должен строится научный стратегический прогноз с опорой на «цивилизационную» теорию. Эта методология базируется на строгой логике, предусматривающий иерархический характер прогноза, когда каждый последующий сценарий вытекает из предыдущего. Развитие сценариев происходит в обязательном порядке «сверху вниз», – от вершины, под которой подразумевается общечеловеческая цивилизация, – к локальным цивилизациям и далее к системе международных отношений и военно-политической обстановке вокруг России. При этом на каждом нижестоящем уровне возможно несколько сценариев, что ведет к умножению возможных вариантов развития. Таким образом, численность сценариев развития международных отношений будет больше, чем сценариев развития человеческой цивилизации, а сценариев развития военно-политической обстановки – больше, чем сценариев развития международных отношений. В докладе указывается, что сценарии развития человеческой цивилизации определяются основными тенденциями мирового развития. Эти тенденции носят долговременный, глубинный характер, предопределяемый социально-экономическими процессами, охватывающими весь мир и затрагивающими миллиарды людей. Как таковые, тенденции мирового развития представляют собой явления объективного порядка, то есть не могут быть изменены субъективной волей отдельных личностей, включая даже руководителей мощных мировых держав. Действия этих руководителей, правительств, да и целых государств могут лишь повлиять на скорость данных процессов, а также те формы, в каких эти процессы будут протекать. Однако остановить или перенаправить тенденции мирового развития они не в состоянии. По этим причинам сценарии развития человеческой цивилизации не могут быть многочисленными. По существу, речь может идти об одном – двух, в крайнем случае – трех сценариях такого развития. Количество сценариев нижестоящих уровней увеличивается в несколько раз. Причем на каждом нижестоящем уровне роль субъективного фактора в реализации того или иного сценария возрастает. По ходу исследования методологии стратегического прогнозирования, авторы доклада анализируют возможные сценарии развитии человеческой цивилизации, международных отношений и военно-политической обстановки. Они также предлагают систему классификации этих сценариев. Так, в первую группу они включают «пессимистические» сценарии, которые представляет собой варианты конфронтационного развития человеческой цивилизации. Речь идет о нарастающем напряжении в международных отношениях, которое становится результатом обострения противостояния локальных цивилизаций, их систем ценностей и интересов. В практической политике это проявляется в усилении борьбы за природные ресурсы, транспортные коридоры и активном продвижении своих систем ценностей. По логике таких сценариев основные державы и возглавляемые ими коалиции готовятся к активному применению военной силы во всех ее формах. В докладе эта группа сценариев рассматривается как наиболее вероятная. Вторая группа включает «оптимистические» сценарии, которые подразумевают, что уже во втором десятилетии XXI века в развитии человечества будут доминировать тенденции сотрудничества и кооперации между различными цивилизациями. Будет происходить демилитаризация союзов, коалиций, блоков, сокращение военных расходов. «Позитивность» для России будет означать, что в мире будет создана евразийская военно-политическая коалиция во главе с «российским ядром», куда войдут не только страны ЕврАзЭС, но и, возможно, целый ряд других евразийских государств. Эта коалиция сможет нейтрализовать негативное влияние НАТО. Третья группа сценариев получила условное название «диалектическая», так как включает противоречивые процессы – как позитивные, так и негативные. Среди позитивных сценариев развития международной обстановки авторы выделяют сценарий «партнерские отношения». В основе этого сценария будет лежать упрочение мирового порядка на основе норм международного права, укрепления государственных суверенитетов, роли международных организаций и учета интересов других наций, государств и сообществ. Однако, по мнению авторов, данный сценарий является в настоящее время маловероятным, так как «реальная политика США, НАТО и ЕС свидетельствует, что этот сценарий в лучшем случае может рассматриваться как декларативно-медийный, а в худшем – как проявление целенаправленной информационной политики, ориентированной на маскировку действительных целей». Гораздо более вероятным представляется конфронтационный сценарий, связанный со стремлением США добиться мирового доминирования. С этой целью американцы, по мнению авторов, будут стремиться «окончательно подчинить своим интересам Европу»; «обеспечить нейтрализацию России» как самостоятельного цивилизационного центра Евразии, «способного быть альтернативой США»; обеспечить сдерживание КНР «с помощью объединенных сил Запада (Трансатлантического партнерства) и Востока (Транстихоокеанское партнерство)» и добиться «благожелательного нейтралитета» Индии, Бразилии и других крупных незападных государств. Этот сценарий допускает эскалацию противоборства между Россией и США вплоть до военного столкновения в той или иной форме, за исключением мировой ядерной войны. В конце доклада приводится развернутая характеристика нескольких возможных сценариев развития военно-политической обстановки: сценарий создания евразийской системы безопасности, сценарий геополитической поляризации, сценарий усиления роли геополитики, сценарий евразийской военно-политической интеграции, сценарий сохранения «ядерного сдерживания» в Евразии и сценарий развития стратегического неядерного оружия. Таким образом, доклад содержит много новых идей, весьма актуальных для нынешнего состояния международной обстановки. Подборка и систематизация материала в рамках доклада, сделанные в нем оценки и выводы позволят читателю получить целостную картину современных подходов к методологии стратегического прогнозирования. Доклад адресован как специалистам — политикам, политологам, журналистам, историкам, дипломатам — так и всем интересующимся вопросами военно-политического прогнозирования и планирования. Он также может служить хорошим подспорьем в практической работе министерств, ведомств, других государственных организаций и научных учреждений, занимающихся соответствующей проблематикой. Автор: М.В. Александров [1] Россия и мир: 2014. Экономика и внешняя политика. Ежегодный прогноз / Рук. Проекта – А.А. Дынкин, В.Г. Барановский. М.: ИМЭМО РАН, 2013. С. 89. [2] Huntington, Samuel P., The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order, New York, Simon & Schuster, 1996. [3] Huntington, Samuel P., The Clash of Civilizations? // Foreign Affairs, vol.72, no.3, Summer 1993 – p. 22   01.09.2014 Tweet Михаил Александровавгуст 2014

02 апреля 2014, 03:11

Битва за Тайвань

Экономическая конкуренция между Китаем и США в Тихоокеанском регионе принимает все более четкие и регламентированные формы. Тайвань сегодня – это государство, за которое одновременно борются и США с проектом Транстихоокеанского партнерства и Китай, предлагающий соглашение об экономическом сотрудничестве. Начиная с 1992 года, экономика Тайваня демонстрирует стремительный рост, превышающий в среднем 4,5% в год. ВВП на душу населения за 20 лет возрос с $ 9116 в 1992-м до $ 19 762 в 2012 году, сделав Тайвань сегодня 28-й самой богатой экономикой в мире и 6-й в Азии. Примечательно то, что Тайвань осуществил переход от диктатуры к демократическому устройству без потери уровня экономического роста, более того, пример Тайваня доказывает, что подобный переход способен в значительной степени увеличить общее благосостояние населения. На протяжении последних 20 лет основным двигателем экономического роста для Тайваня стала международная торговля. В 1992 году общий товарооборот составлял $ 180 млрд – 82% ВВП страны, к 2012 году эта сумма увеличилась до $ 650 млрд – 140% ВВП страны, что сделало Тайвань 19-й экономикой по объему торговли во всем мире. Залогом успеха «экономического чуда» Тайваня стала четкая специализация по производству высокотехнологичной продукции. До 99% экспорта из Тайваня – это продукция индустриального сектора и только 1% приходится на продукцию сельскохозяйственного сектора. Львиная доля экспорта из Тайваня, 70% – это компоненты высокотехнологичных товаров, которые в конечном виде выпускаются под маркой «Сделано в: США, Японии и ЕС». Тайвань производит 94% всех материнских плат и большую часть компьютерных чипов в мире. Помимо этого, Тайвань успешно конкурирует с гигантами отрасли, продвигая такие доморощенные бренды, как Acer и Asus. Тайвань осуществил мечту любой экономики – стать абсолютно незаменимым игроком глобальной производственной цепочки. С другой стороны, такая специализация определяет зависимость Тайваня от международной торговли и общемирового спроса на высокие технологии. Экономическая модель Тайваня определяет высокую степень привязки к другим крупным экономикам региона, в частности к экономике Китая. Роль Китая невозможно переоценить. В 1992 году Китай был лишь 26-м по важности торговым партнером Тайваня, с $ 748 млн торгового оборота. К 2002 году Китай стал 4-м партнером – $ 18,5 млрд. А к 2012 году Китай стал самым главным торговым партнером Тайваня, с общей суммой торгового оборота в $ 121,5 млрд. Соответственно, большая часть экспорта из Тайваня сегодня направляется в Китай. Китай также сегодня является самым важным инвестиционным партнером Тайваня. До 80% прямых иностранных инвестиций (ПИИ) из Тайваня направляются именно в Китай. Через свои инвестиции в производственные мощности Китая Тайвань полноценно включил Китай в свои производственные цепочки, делая экономики стран взаимодополняющими. Помимо значительного увеличения торговых связей с Китаем, Тайвань наращивает экономическое сотрудничество со странами АСЕАН. В 2002 году торговый оборот между Тайванем и странами АСЕАН достигал $ 33 млрд в год, к 2012 году эта сумма увеличилась до $ 88 млрд. Тайвань активно инвестирует в экономики Малайзии, Индонезии, Филиппин, Вьетнама и Таиланда. С 2002 по 2012 годы общая сумма ПИИ увеличилась с $ 503 млн до $ 6 млрд. Тайвань использует особенности каждой из региональных экономик: дешевая рабочая сила Вьетнама для производства технически несложных компонентов, и более продвинутое производство компонентов телекоммуникационной техники и компьютеров на Филиппинах и в Малайзии. Одновременно с ростом влияния экономик азиатского региона и в частности Китая роль США в экономическом развитии Тайваня постепенно падала. В 1992 году товарооборот между США и Тайванем составлял $ 40 млрд, в 2002 году $ 45,5 млрд и $ 56,5 млрд в 2012 году. США опустились с первого места на третье в списке международных торговых партнеров и сегодня составляют чуть меньше 10% общего торгового оборота Тайваня. Сегодня на повестке у Тайваня стоит вопрос стратегического выбора между углублением связей с Китаем и выстраиванием более независимой политической и экономической линии со странами АТР посредством соглашения о Транстихоокеанском партнерстве (ТТП). С одной стороны, Китай, выступая самым главным торговым партнером, предлагает соглашение по экономическому сотрудничеству (ECFA), от которого значительно большую выгоду получает Тайвань. Соглашение ECFA подразумевает многократные раунды переговоров, направленные на двустороннюю либерализацию торговли, увеличение взаимных инвестиций и de facto увеличение взаимозависимости. Еще до ратификации парламентом Тайваня Китай сделал огромное количество уступок, облегчив проникновение тайваньских товаров на свой рынок. По разным оценкам, ратификация соглашения приведет к созданию не менее 260 000 рабочих мест на Тайване и увеличению роста ВВП на 1,7% в год. Значительные уступки Китая по ECFA имеют в большей степени политическое обоснование, нежели экономическое. Конечная цель Китая, которую собственно, Пекин никогда и не скрывал, – это объединение Китая и Тайваня, который после революции 1949 года de facto является независимым государством. С другой стороны, Тайваню предлагается участие в Транстихоокеанском партнерстве – проекте, в значительной степени лоббируемым США. Проект ТТП подразумевает создание большой зоны свободной торговли между странами Тихоокеанского бассейна. Среди участников проекта представители Северной Америки – США, Мексика и Канада, Южной Америки – Чили и Перу, Австралия, Новая Зеландия и ряд азиатских стран. Политическая цель проекта отчасти включает создание противовеса зоне «сопроцветания» Китая. От участия в подобном проекте Тайвань получает значительное приращение потенциальных рынков сбыта своей продукции, а также возможность углубить и расширить производственные цепочки. Безусловно, Китай негативно относится к проекту ТТП, и участию Тайваня в подобного рода проекте для Китая явление крайне отрицательное. Совместить углубление связей с Китаем и развитие транс тихоокеанских связей для Тайваня будет невозможно, и поэтому рано или поздно Тайваню будет необходимо сделать выбор в пользу одной из сторон. Антон Барбашин