Этот День защиты детей европейцы запомнят надолго. Потому что их сделали, как детей. «Это – торговая война», – шумят европейцы. «Нет, – успокаивают их из-за океана, – вот если рискнете ответить, тогда война». «Евросоюз должен объединиться перед лицом этой угрозы». «...
Решение США по пошлинам на сталь и алюминий не оставляет Евросоюзу иного выбора, кроме как начать вводить ответные меры, заявил глава Еврокомиссии Жан-Клод Юнкер. «ЕС считает эти односторонние тарифы США неоправданными и противоречащими правилам Всемирной торговой организации. Это протекционизм...
As narrative-ending as it may be to nattering naybobs, President Trump is not the first, and will not be the last, to enforce major trade policies. As Goldman Sachs points out in this fully annotated chart, the US has a long history of trade interventionism, and - as the WSJ recently pointed out - what Trump has done is merely respond to China's own protectionist policies. Source: Goldman Sachs Incidentally, while it is far less discussed, we showed at the start of March that there have been extensive tariffs levied against China under both Obama's administration, and those prior, they just didn't get nearly as much air time. As BofAML details in the table below, Presidents Obama, Bush, and Reagan have all imposed sizable tariffs on steel in the past: In this context, some have accused Trump of being all bark and no bite, and of being a flip-flopper on this - and other - issues. For those who remain unsure of where President Trump stands on trade, here are thirty years of his quotes on the topic: Source: Goldman Sachs On the heels of Wilbur Ross' comments imploring investors to "act rationally, not hysterically," Goldman notes that, all told, their strategists expect asset implications to be modest and largely contained to specific sectors/companies with exposure to targeted products. But as GS global economists Jari Stehn and Nicholas Fawcett explain, "the global macro costs become significant only when a trade war really heats up, with retaliation from all sides." With that in mind, the key questions are: What is the risk that the situation escalates further, and what might retaliation look like? So far, numerous temporary exemptions from US metals tariffs have substantially diminished the prospect of retaliation and escalation from some of the US’ largest trading partners. And China’s response has been measured, with Washington and Beijing reportedly in the midst of talks to defuse the situation. For now, the questions remain: the US has yet to publish its official product list for Section 301-related tariffs on Chinese goods, and is still likely to announce restrictions on Chinese investment in the US—both of which the Chinese have yet to address, and detail just how they will retaliate.
Калифорния продолжает свое противостояние с администрацией Дональда Трампа в контексте миграционного вопроса. С 1 января Сенат Калифорния утвердил новый билль, который запрещает правоохранительным органам штата исполнять федеральные миграционные законы и вообще каким-либо образом помогать Миграционн...
Just when investors thought trade war tantrums were ebbing... Despite warnings overnight from Beijing that US should "not open pandora's box" with regard trade tariffs, US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross confirmed on Bloomberg TV this morning that President Trump will announce sweeping China tariffs, aimed at countering IP theft, shortly. The US "is not strong-arming" China, Ross argued, "we're defending ourselves." This comment follows Reuters reports that China warned the United States on Thursday against sparking a flurry of protectionist practices across the globe, even as Beijing pointed to U.S. goods that it could target in a deepening Sino-U.S. trade dispute. “The malicious practices of the United States are like opening Pandora’s Box, and there is a danger of triggering a chain reaction that will spread the virus of trade protectionism across the globe,” a commerce ministry spokesman said. While stocks took an initial hit from AMZN, they are legging lower on the Ross trade-war confirmation. Clearly aware of the impact the administration's trade-war antics are having, Ross concluded his interview by urging investors to: "act rationally, not hysterically."
Curt Mills Security, Americas Is this a good deal for Washington? As the world turned its attention to the mysterious green train arriving in Beijing, later confirmed to be carrying North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, the White House on Tuesday night announced a new trade regime with Pyongyang’s neighbor to the south. As tensions heat up with China, Russia, Iran and the North Koreas, the Trump administration, the most outwardly protectionist team at 1600 Pennsylvania in decades, repeatedly emphasized their view of South Korean trade as a “national-security issue.” Washington and Seoul have reached “an agreement in principle,” a senior administration official said Tuesday night, “That will significantly strengthen both the economic and the national-security relationship between the United States and South Korea. This is a good deal for both countries.” The senior official later became more pointed: “This agreement is visionary and innovative and it underscores a pattern of failure by previous administrations to negotiate fair and reciprocal trade deals that benefit both countries.” South Korea-U.S. free trade relations were originally proposed under George W. Bush and then inked under Barack Obama late last decade. President Trump has been deeply critical of both administrations—especially and consistently on the issue of trade. The effort at a revamp was spearheaded by the U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and his South Korean counterpart, Trade Minister Kim Hyun-chong, the White House said. This is the first successful negotiation of a trade agreement in history, the administration emphasized. And it’s another step in the White House’s firmly hawkish tact on trade in the early months of 2018. In February, Peter Navarro, director of the national trade council, and his ally, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, won a power struggle against National Economic Council Chair Gary Cohn, and White House Staff Secretary Rob Porter. Neither Cohn nor Porter work in the administration any longer (although Porter’s exodus was far more compelled by revelations of violence against his ex-wives). Read full article
The decision announced late Monday night by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has already triggered legal challenges from California and New York, with the latter promising a “multi-state” lawsuit challenging the administration.
With several weeks remaining until steel and aluminum tariffs introduced a few weeks ago by the Trump administration take effect, the US and its largest trading partners are mired in behind-the-scenes negotiations to strike a deal that could win them an exemption from some or all of the tariffs. And while recent leaks have focused primarily on the talks between Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin,Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese economy czar Liu He, Bloomberg today reported that there's a growing rift between Germany and France regarding how they should respond to the US tariffs. Germany is willing to offer the US some concessions to protect its export-led economy; however, other EU members - including France - believe the bloc should offer no concessions. The EU is still trying to work out a common response to the Trump tariffs. At stake is a trade relationship worth some $640 billion in 2016. Germany is in favor of any EU deal covering new rules on tariffs for a series of products including cars, machinery, foodstuffs and pharmaceuticals. That stance is not shared by France, which wants to focus on pressuring China over issues such as subsidies and overcapacity in the steel industry. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her government are already feeling out the German car industry and whether they might be able to convince it to support a reduction to the EU's 10% tariff on auto imports. Carmakers reportedly responded positively to the idea. "Dialogue with the US must continue at the highest political level," the VDA German car industry body said in a statement when asked about the report. "We advocate sustainable and reliable agreements that are WTO-compliant. In the interests of fair and free trade, it is necessary to dismantle each other’s trade barriers and to agree a new framework." German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier, who met last week with US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, recently told reporters that he hadn't made an offer. He later denied reports that he pitched lowering auto tariffs. "It is only the EU which negotiates, united and together. I have neither made any offers nor any promises," he said. A spokeswoman for his ministry added that he had kept EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom fully informed on the discussions. Trump spoke on Tuesday with both Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, according to separate statements from the White House. Trump and Merkel discussed joining forces to counter China. Macron reminded Trump that European steel and aluminum exports are not a security threat to the US. Trump has largely predicated his protectionist push on national security concerns. Merkel is trying to persuade Trump to give up on forging bilateral agreements with each European state and instead agree to common EU guidelines in accordance with WTO rules. Under those rules, countries can only offer concessions that lower trade barriers below the WTO standard if the reduction covers "substantially all" commerce - not individual products and sectors. The average EU tariff on US imports is around 3%, while the US average duty is around 2.4%.
California's Attorney General, Xavier Becerra (D) said a new question included on the 2020 census asking for citizenship status is illegal, and he will sue the Trump administration to remove it. "We're prepared to do what we must to protect California from a deficient Census. Including a citizenship question on the 2020 census is not just a bad idea — it is illegal," said Becerra in a statement. #BREAKING: Filing suit against @realdonaldtrump's Administration over decision to add #citizenship question on #2020Census. Including the question is not just a bad idea — it is illegal: https://t.co/vW8sa7khq9 — Xavier Becerra (@AGBecerra) March 27, 2018 "Including a citizenship question on the 2020 census is not just a bad idea — it is illegal," Becerra wrote in a Monday San Francisco Chronicle opinion piece along with California Secretary of State Alex Padilla. "The size of your child’s kindergarten class. Homeland security funds for your community. Natural disaster preparation. Highway and mass transit resources. Health care and emergency room services. Vital services such as these would be jeopardized and our voice in government diminished if the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2020 count resulted in an undercount" -Xavier Becerra In other words - the U.S. government shouldn't be allowed to ask if U.S. residents are legal citizens, because it may lead to underreporting and therefore fewer benefits and Congressional representation would go to regions with high concentrations of illegal aliens. Becerra argues that the Constitution requires the government conduct an "actual enumeration" of the total population - which, the California AG argues, should be conducted regardless of citizenship. The census has a specific constitutional purpose: to provide an accurate count of all residents, which then allows for proper allotment of congressional representatives to the states. The Census Bureau has a long history of working to ensure the most accurate count of the U.S. population in a nonpartisan manner, based on scientific principles. Separately, former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder announced that he is also filing a lawsuit to stop the citizenship question from being included in the 2020 census. "We will litigate to stop the Administration from moving forward with this irresponsible decision," Holder said in a Tuesday morning statement. "The addition of a citizenship question to the census questionnaire is a direct attack on our representative democracy. This question will lower the response rate and undermine the accuracy of the count, leading to devastating, decade-long impacts on voting rights and the distribution of billions of dollars in federal funding. By asking this question, states will not have accurate representation and individuals in impacted communities will lose out on state and federal funding for health care, education, and infrastructure." Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the reinstatement of the citizenship question in a post to the department's website (here). The question last appeared on the 1950 census. As The Hill notes, the DOJ under Attorney General Jeff Sessions pushed for the inclusion of the question - arguing that it would allow Justice to better enforce the Voting Rights Act. The census question has led lawmakers and pundits alike to opine on the legality, morality and practicality of such a move: Kamala: The census is just trying to find all your voters (illegal). https://t.co/DBWYxx0tWz — thebradfordfile (@thebradfordfile) March 27, 2018 U.S. Department of Commerce Announces Reinstatement of Citizenship Question to the 2020 Decennial Census | The Left is going ballistic because they don't want Americans to know the full extent of the illegal alien invasion. https://t.co/OyXyLRPRzu — Tom Fitton (@TomFitton) March 27, 2018 So liberals say asking about citizenship in the census is illegal, but they won't say illegal immigrants being here is illegal? — Liz Wheeler (@Liz_Wheeler) March 27, 2018 The federal census is NOT a tool to rally the President’s base. It’s a constitutionally mandated count of every single PERSON living in this country. More important than ever to pass my bill to prevent this w/ @CoryBooker @maziehirono & many @SenateDems https://t.co/RbU1Z2wEPk https://t.co/VC8Wfu1r7A — Senator Bob Menendez (@SenatorMenendez) March 27, 2018 By adding a citizenship question to the #2020Census, @SecretaryRoss has succumbed to the hateful, nativist views that are the hallmark of this administration & deliberately compromised the integrity of the #Census for political purposes. https://t.co/fVMRJYtiqK — Carolyn B. Maloney (@RepMaloney) March 27, 2018 #CitizenshipMatters Apportionment for Congressional seats and electoral votes should be based on citizens, not on residents. Otherwise citizens are underrepresented... For example, California gets roughly three extra members of Congress based on estimates of illegal residents. https://t.co/Acq02zM4Ev — Warren Davidson (@WarrenDavidson) March 27, 2018 It will be interesting to see how this is somehow spun as a Russian trick by the usual suspects...
Today was yesterday's alternative ending... Only NASDAQ remains marginally green on the year... Today's fun and games started with comments from Wilbur Ross on "emergency" curbs on Chinese investment but then a series of headlines on megatech - NVDA self-driving car suspension, TSLA NTSB probe, FB hearings and more headlines, and GOOGL and TWTR being dragged into the furore. All in all - a bloodbath! What goes up (on low volume) collapses on heavy volume... (Nasdaq - green, was worst; The Dow - blue, managed to hold some gains)... Cash markets saw Nasdaq and Small Caps erase all of yesterday's gains... Equity market momentum was massacred today... The S&P 500 failed to get back to its 100DMA (blue) and tumbled back towards its 200DMA (red)... The Dow is back below its Fib 38.2 Retrace level... VIX spiked back above 23... FANGMAN Stocks were a total bloodbath... US bank stocks collapsed back to reality today... Fading yesterday's outperformance of European banks... Credit stress continues to build... HY and IG smashed wider... Bonds led stocks... Bond yields tumbled today... Real and BEs collapsed... 10Y Yields broke their 24 day streak of closing with a 2.8x% handle... to the downside, closing at 2.78% - lowest close since Feb 5th... And the yield curve collapsed to fresh 11 year lows... As bonds catch down to Copper/Gold's disinflationary reality... The Dollar Index rebounded grandly overnight but stalled once the US session started... Cryptos had another tough day... It seems that Bitcoin is leading tech lower once again... Commodities were all lower today on the stronger dollar, led by crude... The energy complex was all hit hard today... What next?
LAWFARE: California to sue Trump admin over citizenship question in 2020 census. California Attorney General Xavier Becerra announced the suit against the administration late Monday on Twitter, saying the measure would be unlawful. “Filing suit against @realdonaldtrump’s Administration over decision to add #citizenship question on #2020Census. Including the question is not just a bad idea […]
The Dow and S&P have erased overnight gains (and Nasdaq is sliding fast) as traders sell the cash open following headlines from Wilbur Ross and China's Global Times that suggest the trade war is far from over... Treasury yields are tumbling... And the dollar index is rapidly fading after spiking since Asia's close.
Update: Confirming Wilbur Ross' earlier comments, Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration is considering a crackdown on Chinese investments in technologies the U.S. considers sensitive by employing a law reserved for national emergencies, among other options, according to people familiar with the matter. The investment curbs would be the latest step in President Donald Trump’s plan to punish China for what the U.S. sees as violations of American intellectual-property rights. And stocks have plunged back into the red... Goodbye China M&A Premium!! * * * As we detailed earlier, after all the hard work of Mnuchin and Navarro 'happy-talking' stocks higher yesterday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross may have begun the process of reality-checking as he confirms US will announce curbs on Chinese investements. When asked about U.S. retaliation against China’s alleged violation of intellectual property, Ross told Fox News "It’s not my practice to get ahead ahead of the president and what he announces. There will be limitations on foreign investment... CFIUS, which is the entity that regulates foreign investment, has new legislation pending both in the House and in the Senate, so that will be part of it... And then some other action by the president will be the other part of it. He’s going to be making some announcements about it." And while the reaction is modest for now, the epic ramp from yesterday is starting to fade into the open...
Москва, 27 марта - "Вести.Экономика". Президент США Дональд Трамп, объявивший о введении заградительных пошлин на импорт стали и алюминия, заявил о проведении переговоров со странами, которые пострадали от этого решения. В итоге "все буду счастливы".
Генпрокурор американского штата Калифорния Ксавье Бесерра заявил о намерении обратиться в суд с иском на администрацию президента США Дональда Трампа в связи с решением включить в анкету переписи населения 2020 года вопрос о гражданстве. «Подаю иск против администрации Дональда Трампа в связи с решением добавить вопрос о гражданстве в анкету переписи 2020 года. Включение этого вопроса не просто плохая идея, это незаконно», – цитирует генпрокурора Калифорнии РИА «Новости». В газете San Francisco Chronicle Ксавье Бесерра поясняет, что если «подсчет будет неправильным, каждый штат, каждый район может не получить равную долю федерального финансирования для своих жителей и налогоплательщиков». Как пишет Hill, представители Демократической партии опасаются, что внесение в анкету вопроса о гражданстве приведет к неточному пересчету населения, потому что иммигранты могут отказаться участвовать в переписи. О том, что анкета переписи населения 2020 года будет включать вопрос о гражданстве, ранее сообщил глава минторга США Уилбур Росс. Он, в частности, напомнил, что вопрос о гражданстве включался в перепись населения вплоть до 1950 года.
The California AG quickly filed a legal complaint, while New York's Schneiderman said he would lead a multi-state lawsuit.
Американский президент Дональд Трамп согласился с рекомендациями своих советников и готов выслать российских дипломатов из США в связи с происшествием в британском Солсбери, передает Bloomberg со ссылкой на осведомленные источники. «По словам двух человек, знакомых с ситуацией, президент Дональд Трамп готовится выслать десятки российских дипломатов из США в ответ на отравление нервно-паралитическим ядом бывшего российского разведчика в Соединенном Королевстве», – говорится в публикации. По данным Bloomberg, Трамп может объявить о высылке российских дипломатов в понедельник, передает РИА «Новости». При этом собеседники информационного агентства выразили опасения тем, что решение Трампа не окончательное. По их словам, перед тем, как выслать россиян, Трамп хочет быть уверенным, что европейские союзники США также предпримут шаги в отношении России. Bloomberg добавляет, что высылку российских дипломатов Трамп в пятницу обсуждал с американским послом в Москве Джоном Хантсманом, министром финансов Стивеном Мнучином, министром торговли Уилбуром Россом, министром юстиции Джеффом Сешнсом, главой Пентагона Джеймсом Мэттисом, главой Нацразведки США Дэниелом Коутсом и Гербертом Макмастером, который вскоре покинет пост помощника Трампа по национальном безопасности. «США твердо выступают на стороне Соединенного Королевства в осуждении возмутительных действий России», – заявил представитель Белого дома Радж Шах. По его словам, Трамп всегда рассматривал возможность «привлечения России к ответственности в ответ на ее враждебные действия». По поводу сообщений о грядущей высылке российских дипломатов он сказал: «У нас нет заявлений на данный момент». В марте Сергей Скрипаль, осужденный в 2006 году на 13 лет за шпионаж в пользу Британии и освобожденный в обмен на российских разведчиков, и его дочь Юлия были отравлены в британском городе Солсбери. Отношения Лондона и Москвы резко ухудшились на фоне того, что Британия обвинила Россию в применении химического оружия, в результате чего якобы и был отравлен Скрипаль. Лондон выслал 23 российских дипломата, такие же меры уже анонсировали Латвия и Эстония.
President Donald Trump said Friday his administration was “very close” to finalizing trade talks with South Korea — suggesting that his broader concerns over the free trade agreement between the two countries could also be resolved soon."We’re going to have a wonderful deal with a wonderful ally. We’re getting very close to it," Trump said. "It was a deal that was causing a lot of problems for our country in terms of employment and in terms of lots of other things."Trump, who has repeatedly blasted the trade agreement between the U.S. and its Asian ally, made the comment at a press conference to mark his signing of a $1.3 trillion spending bill averting a government shutdown. Disagreements over the trade pact have undermined the relationship between Seoul and Washington at a time when North Korea’s nuclear weapons tests have threatened to destabilize the region.Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who also spoke at the event, said the administration was nearing a “pretty comprehensive resolution“ with South Korea. He said the agreement would encompass Trump's new tariffs on steel and aluminum imports as well as "broader trade talks."“We hope by some time next week to be able to have a real announcement,“ Ross added.The White House on Thursday night temporarily exempted South Korea from the new steel and aluminum tariffs, which were imposed under a rarely used trade law that allows the president to take trade action to protect national security interests. That exemption is pending a successful conclusion of talks to amend the 2007 free trade agreement between the U.S. and South Korea, which took effect six years ago, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said earlier this week.Lighthizer initiated a process last July under the U.S.-South Korea trade deal to negotiate changes to the pact to address market access issues and the trade imbalance between the two countries — one of Trump's chief complaints about the deal.