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17 апреля, 22:32

"Hell To Pay"

Authored by Economic Prism's MN Gordon, via Acting-Man.com, Behind the Curve Economic nonsense comes a dime a dozen.  For example, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen “think(s) we have a healthy economy now.”  She even told the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy so earlier this week.  Does she know what she’s talking about?   Somehow, this cartoon never gets old… If you go by a partial subset of the ‘official’ government statistics, perhaps, it appears she does.  The unemployment rate is at 4.5 percent, which is considered full employment.  What’s more, inflation is ‘reasonably close’ to the Fed’s 2-percent inflation target.  But what does this mean, really? According to Fed Chair Yellen, it means that now’s the time to tighten up the nation’s monetary policy.   Behold this display of awesomeness, citizen. Doesn’t it prove that central planning “works” after all? Unfortunately the ointment is never entirely fly-free, especially when one is pondering statistical aggregates – click to enlarge.   By now you’ve likely seen this upcoming – choice – quote from Yellen.  Nonetheless, we can’t resist repeating its remarkable idiocy.  For Yellen, who was in the greater Detroit metropolitan area, was kind enough to humor us all with a nifty automotive analogy to explain how to go about normalizing monetary policy.  Here Yellen elaborates with a variety of technical terms: “Whereas before we had our foot pressed down on the gas pedal trying to give the economy all the oomph we possibly could, now allowing the economy to kind of coast and remain on an even keel – to give it some gas but not so much that we are pressing down hard on the accelerator – that’s a better stance of monetary policy.  We want to be ahead of the curve and not behind it.” As far as we can tell, Yellen’s merely huffing and blowing gas.  What curve she wants to stay ahead of is unclear.  We assume she’s referring to the inflation curve, although this does seem a bit out of context. By our account, inflation of the money supply is, indeed, inflation.  Hence, the Fed fell behind the curve between September 2008 and December 2014 when it inflated its balance sheet from $905 billion to $4.5 trillion. By our back of the napkin calculation that tallies up to nearly a 400 percent inflation of the Fed’s balance sheet.  But what do we know?   The broad true US money supply TMS-2 vs. assets held by the Federal Reserve since the GFC. A few points worth noting: TMS-2 expanded by ~140% between January 2008 and January 2017. One way of looking at this statistic is “in the entire history of the US, an amount X of money was created until early 2008. Since then, the amount of money in the economy has increased by 2.4 times”. The money supply had doubled by November 2014, so it took a little less than six years to print as much money in the US than in its entire preceding history. Yes, this is quite a bit of inflation. The fact that it has “bought” the weakest recovery of the entire post WW2 era is apparently considered a surprise by many people, but it shouldn’t be (the capital theory of the Austrian School provides answers). Also noteworthy: since peaking at ~$12.64 trillion in January 2017, TMS-2 has actually declined by roughly $110 billion. Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen, but if it does, the weak recovery will turn into an outright bust – click to enlarge.   Economic Flatline Apparently, the Fed is so thrilled with the economy’s health that it wants to start shrinking its balance sheet later this year.  In fact, New York Fed President William Dudley wants to execute balance sheet shrinkage by ending reinvestment of maturing principal.  Easy come easy go, right? Unfortunately, Dudley’s plan ain’t gonna be easy.  When it comes down to it, it’s unlikely the Fed will ever be able to shrink its balance sheet in any meaningful way.  Quite frankly, both the economy and financial markets simply can’t afford it. Sure Yellen says that “we have a healthy economy now.”  However, the economy may not be nearly as healthy as she believes.  This becomes much more evident when looking beyond just the unemployment rate. In particular, as of 4th quarter 2016, GDP is increasing at a lethargic 2.1 percent.  Yet that’s not the half of it.  As of April 7, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s own GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 is just 0.6 percent.  By the time you read this they’ll have published an update. The point is, in the face of 0.6 percent GDP growth, Yellen’s statement that we have a healthy economy is patently absurd.  For all practical purposes, 0.6 percent GDP growth is at economic flatline. Clearly, it’s not the type of growth that will lighten the load of today’s massive public and private debt burden.  Nor is it the type of growth that propels first term presidents into a second term in high office.   Fresh from the Atlanta Fed: the latest GDP Now forecast for Q1 2017 stands at a paltry 0.5%. Keep in mind that GDP is a measure of economic activity that leaves a lot to be desired, but as is generally the case with such macroeconomic aggregates, it does give us a rough idea of general growth trends. It remains to be seen if the forecast turns out to be correct, but this particular model has so far worked quite well, so we would not dismiss it.   Hell To Pay President Trump doesn’t want 0.6 percent GDP growth.  He wants 4 percent GDP growth.  He demands it.  He’s even promised it. But promising something and then delivering on it are two entirely different things.  One takes cheap blather.  The other takes hard work, persistence, tenacity, and good luck. Like many of President Trump’s promises, we are certain the promise of 4 percent GDP growth will be broken.  But Trump’s only fault in the matter is promising it to begin with.  It’s been over 13 years since the U.S. economy had a single year of 4 percent GDP growth.  The simple fact is, the U.S. economy’s too larded over with debt and intervention to attain it. On top of that, Trump has the cards stacked against him.  The Fed’s plans to increase the federal funds rate and shrink its balance sheet, either simultaneously or in sequence, will likely be counterproductive to President Trump’s GDP target.  As the price of credit becomes more expensive, less borrowing and spending will occur.   A giant inflationary illusion: total credit market debt, federal debt, stocks and GDP (no points are awarded for guessing what comes dead last). A little aside: the Fed has stopped updating total credit market debt in late 2015. But fear not, the underlying data set keeps being updated. Thanks for nothing guys – now we will have to reconstruct this chart manually if we want to keep publishing it (if we understand this correctly, they simply removed one equation from their spreadsheet – the only effect is to make it more difficult to track, chart and compare this aggregate number. Honni soit qui mal y pense) click to enlarge.   Of course, over the long-term, less borrowing and spending is precisely what the economy and financial markets need.  Contracting credit.  Deflating asset prices.  Bankruptcy and default of marginal businesses.  Most of all, default of U.S. government debt.  Liquidate it all.   That’s just the federal debt bomb – and it’s less than a third of the total.   These are the solutions to an economy that’s been distorted so far out of balance – where a median income job doesn’t buy a median priced home.  This is also the solution to a government that’s gotten too big for its britches.  Cutting off the government’s overdrawn credit line will be the surest way to shrink it down to right size. No doubt, there’s hell to pay for 100 years of ever escalating financial insanity.  Take it in stride.  The downside is here and it’s not going away any time soon.

16 апреля, 08:55

Кредитное сжатие продолжается. ФРС планирует поднять ставку. Again. (Константин)

Недавно Трамп посетовал на сильный доллар и что его де надо бы понизить. На это купились некоторые (даже у нас на форуме), доллар и правду упал ненадолго после этого. Правда сейчас он уже отыграл 3/4 своего падения. ФРС тем не менее, заявляет совершенно обратное президенту США. Джаннет Йеллен, выступая в Детройте, прозрачно намекнула, что ФРС поднимет ставку "прекратив давить на газ". Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли намерен сократить баланс ФРС, прекратив реинвестировать средства, поступающие после погашения облигаций.30 комментариев

14 апреля, 01:01

Dow 30 Stock Roundup: Microsoft Buys Cloud Tech Firm, Disney's "Beauty and the Beast"

The index experienced an eventful and holiday shortened week, marked by growing geopolitical tensions.

12 апреля, 23:44

The Coming Red Line That Can't Be Crossed

Authored by Mark St.Cyr, We’re hearing a lot about red lines this week. And when those “lines” are posed at a near incessant pace coming from every corner of the media while including other items such as: chemical weapons, missiles, carrier group, troop movements, and more. It’s easy to see how one gets desensitized. It seems for anyone trying to actually pay attention to world events the task gets harder by the day. It makes one think that maybe Timothy Leary was on to something, but I digress. However with the above noted there is one “red line” which is currently below the horizon and has the potential to disrupt the globe in ways that everyone currently believes has been avoided. And much like the carrier group now steaming its way towards the Korean peninsula, it has the same amount of potential “firepower” to escalate things in ways we all hope can be avoided. That “red line” is not a military one, but rather, a “market” one. And if crossed everything changes, and I do mean everything. To wit: (chart source) The above is a weekly chart of the S&P 500™ as of Wed. before the opening bell. As you can see we have been in a near vertical assent since the election. It’s important to put these things into perspective for reasons as I highlighted on the above. First, as you can see there are two horizontals containing blue fields. Why is this area of importance? Because this area represents where we bounced within, incessantly, for months. Where the headlines of “New record highs!” dominated the mainstream financial/business media for months on end. That is, until about Aug. of that same year (2015.) As you can see that range which allowed for the generating of all those “headlines” and “great vibes” that poured out of every next in rotation fund manager, economist, or Fed. speaker suddenly became null-and-void when the “markets” began to nosedive, seemingly out of nowhere. (e.g., the resulting aftermath of the overnight devaluation of the Yuan.) That didn’t stop until Fed. officials (along with a note in James Cramer’s pocket) took to any media venue they could to shout from the skies on “the wings of doves” that they were “at the ready” with whatever new iteration of money printing may be needed. The “cooing” was always at its loudest as the “markets” approached (again, and again, and again) that now monikered “bottom.” This was, and has been, the BTFD genius trade in spades. For every-time the “markets” rolled over? The Fed. has scrambled to assure their dovish tones, and deeds, were standing at the ready. This (once again) was played (and I presume continues to be played) by Wall Street as I mentioned before – “in spades.” For if you look at that chart you’ll notice the “markets” were about to (once again) breach that all too familiar line and possibly resume its now familiar pattern of “It’s all falling apart! Someone do something!!!” And as the above shows (once again) a Fed official did just that when the Chair herself made what is now deemed one of the most contradictory speeches as to what the Fed. might be contemplating with her insinuation that running a “high pressure” policy may be the only way to alleviate the damage still residing within the economy. We were, as the above shows, once again, looking as to repeat the same old, same old. Some might be asking what’s so contradictory? Hint: “High pressure” insinuates a far more “dovish” monetary stance. (i.e., “Don’t worry boys, we’ll make sure Christmas isn’t cancelled.) This was in October. Within about 60 days of that speech Ms. Yellen would become the undisputed leader of the now gathering flock of “hawks are us.” The only thing that changed during that time besides the Fed’s posture? The election, imagine that. Since the election the “markets” have been on a one way trajectory, straight up, into record-breaking, after record-breaking, closes. In my opinion: Nosebleed territory is an understatement. Yet, what one must remember is this… The Fed. has seemingly done all it can other than openly scream, “We’re serious here, and still relevant!” about their intentions of further, and faster hiking, and/or their balance sheet reduction ideas. And so far, it’s all fallen on deaf ears. The “markets” currently are (possibly were) only concerned with the “Trumpflation” trade. i.e., If the economy gets what Trump promised as in: meaningful tax cuts, Obamacare repeal, incentives for manufacturing and more – the Fed. doesn’t matter. Only the economy and resulting GDP does, as it should. But there’s a problem. Suddenly it looks like all that campaign promising and rhetoric is turning into just that – rhetoric, and promises that can’t be kept. And the “markets” ears are now beginning to wonder if all that “screaming” about further hikes, balance sheet rundown, and more coming out of the Fed. which is emanating no longer on the “wings of doves” but rather from a concerted group of “hawks” should be given more thought. So “noticed” in fact, it seems to have taken the Fed. itself by surprise when none other than N.Y. Fed. president William Dudley after a speech where he expressed he favored gradual tapering of the balance sheet felt the need to take to the airwaves (sorry but, once again) only days later as to clarify what he meant by the word “pause” because of the adverse reaction given by Wall Street. Yes, the Fed. got it’s wish – Wall Street is once again “all ears.” And with that the Fed. suddenly found itself like that old joke of someone shouting over the ambient noise at a party to suddenly find the music stopping mid sentence while they’re still screaming. So comical was this knee-jerk reaction via a Fed. speaker as to make sure they clarified what “pause” truly implied, I nearly spit my coffee when I heard one of the hosts on Bloomberg™ make the observation: “Is this what its all come to? Needing to clarify the meaning of ‘pause?'” Yes, yes it has. However it’s been that way for quite some time, just no one cared to listen other than those of us relegated to mocking as the “doom crew” or “tin foiled” types. The real problem is – we’ve been right. It’s just that most are just beginning, including the media to catch on. The issue that goes with that hand-in-hand is this: possibly far too late. And here’s why… As I said in the beginning there’s a “red line” that needs to not be crossed in my opinion. I’ve marked on the above chart that line is, or about, the 2130ish area (give or take) on the S&P. If that line is crossed there will be a battle which I’ve delineated as the “battlefield area.” I would assume we will ping-pong back and forth (i.e., 2130 – 2085 respectively) within this area until the break of where we’re heading in the near future is made. If it breaks lower? All bets are off. And I mean just that: All. For this rally to hold and further gains to be promising that 2130 line needs to be avoided at all costs. Especially with the Fed’s current stance and policy implications. Much like a kinetic war, this “market” and monetary battle may have just as harsh ramifications if certain red lines are breached. The issue at hand is this: Just as fast, and unrelenting as the “Hopium” trade of reflation has been. It can reverse with the same characteristics as it started, and we could end up at that “moment of truth” before we know it. If we do start barreling there out-of-the-blue, and with some momentum? Your first signs for concern will be when you suddenly hear hawks cooing. Though that process (or metamorphosis) might already be underway. See Mr. Dudley for clues. Now it’s time to see how the “market” reacts. Or more importantly: Is the damage of 2 rate hikes in 90 days, and relentless jawboning for balance sheet reduction, along with the realization of potential reflation trade DOA damage already done?

10 апреля, 17:38

Stock Market News for April 10, 2017

Benchmarks declined only marginally on Friday, dragged down by weaker-than-expected March jobs data and President Trump???s surprise attack against an airbase near Homs, Syria

10 апреля, 15:40

Обзор европейской сессии: евро умеренно ослаб

Были опубликованы следующие данные: (время/страна/показатель/период/предыдущее значение/прогноз) 08:30 Еврозона Индикатор уверенности инвесторов от Sentix Апрель 20.7 20.1 23.9 12:15 Канада Число закладок новых фундаментов Март 210.2 216 254 Евро снизился против доллара в понедельник, что было вызвано нервозностью по поводу предстоящих президентских выборов во Франции, так как инвесторы подытожили недавние опросы, показывающие ужесточение гонки. За кампанией внимательно следят инвесторы, так как один из соперников - ультраправый кандидат Ле Пен - пригрозила вывести Францию ​​из Евросоюза, если она выиграет, подогревая проблемы развала блока после голосования в Великобритании о выходе из ЕС в прошлом году. «Есть общее беспокойство, которое... мы видим на (французских) опросах общественного мнения, что гонка, кажется, затягивается», - сказал Алвин Тан, валютный стратег в Societe Generale в Лондоне. Опросы в течение недель показали, что Ле Пен и центрист Эммануэль Макрон на пути к выходу из первого тура голосования 23 апреля и перейдут ко второму туру 7 мая. Волатильность пары евро/доллар от одной недели до одного года коснулась самого высокого уровня с момента сразу после голосования Брексита в Великобритании. Небольшую поддержку евро оказали данные по доверию инвесторов в еврозоне. Доверие инвесторов в еврозоне повысилось до самого высокого уровня почти за десятилетие в апреле, показали в понедельник данные опроса Sentix. Индекс настроений инвесторов неожиданно вырос до 23,9 в апреле с 20,7 в марте. Ожидалось, что показатель упадет до 20,2. Это был самый высокий балл с августа 2007 года. В апреле усилилась оценка текущей ситуации, а также ожиданий. Показатель текущих условий улучшился до 28,8 с 23,8. Это был четвертый рост подряд и достиг максимального уровня с января 2008 года. Аналогичным образом, индекс ожиданий составил 19,3 против 17,8 месяцем ранее. Доллар немного снизился в ходе европейской сессии после того, как коснулся трехнедельного максимума против корзины валют в Азии. Аналитики говорят, что движение в Азии стало продолжением пятницы, когда официальный представитель ФРС США подтвердил обязательство центрального банка продолжать повышать процентные ставки. Президент Федеральной резервной системы Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли заявил, что ФРС может избежать повышения процентных ставок в то же самое время, когда она начнет сокращать свой баланс, что приведет лишь к «небольшой паузе» в планах повышения ставок центрального банка. Геополитическая напряженность в Азии также была в центре внимания после решения США о переносе ударной группы ВМС на Корейский полуостров после провокационного испытания ракет Северной Кореей. «На заднем плане все еще существуют геополитические проблемы, такие как сирийская ситуация, и нет никаких новых стимулов или причин покупать доллар», - говорит Кумико Ишикава, аналитик валютного рынка в Sony Financial Holdings в Токио. EUR/USD: в течение европейской сессии пара снизилась до $1.0569 GBP/USD: в течение европейской сессии пара выросла до $1.2406 USD/JPY: в течение европейской сессии пара снизилась до Y111.18 В 14:00 GMT США представит индекс условий на рынке труда за март. В 20:00 GMT с речью выступит глава ФРС Джанет Йеллен. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

10 апреля, 08:47

Дадли полагает, что ФРС избежит чрезмерного ужесточения финансовых условий

Глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли полагает, что Федеральная резервная система избежит чрезмерного ужесточения финансовых условий. По его словам, Федрезерв может взять небольшую паузу в увеличении ставки по федеральным бондам, когда начнет сокращать баланс активов, поскольку такое сокращение заменит повышение краткосрочных ставок. Кроме того, Дадли отметил, что настало время пересмотреть ряд правил, включая правило Волкера, а также ежегодные стресс-тесты американских банков. По мнению Дадли, нецелесообразно применять правила, которые использовались в период финансового кризиса.

10 апреля, 08:17

Дадли полагает, что ФРС избежит чрезмерного ужесточения финансовых условий

Глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли полагает, что Федеральная резервная система избежит чрезмерного ужесточения финансовых условий. По его словам, Федрезерв может взять небольшую паузу в увеличении ставки по федеральным бондам, когда начнет сокращать баланс активов, поскольку такое сокращение заменит повышение краткосрочных ставок. Кроме того, Дадли отметил, что настало время пересмотреть ряд правил, включая правило Волкера, а также ежегодные стресс-тесты американских банков. По мнению Дадли, нецелесообразно применять правила, которые использовались в период финансового кризиса.

07 апреля, 08:18

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 09:00 GMT Губернатор Банка Англии Марк Карни выступит с речью В 12:00 GMT Встреча Еврогруппы В 12:00 GMT Встреча совета министров финансов стран Евросоюза В 16:15 GMT Член FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью В 17:00 GMT Число работающих буровых установок в США, по данным Baker Hughes Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

06 апреля, 22:20

BIS: Центробанкам необходим совместный план на случай нового кризиса финансирования

Основные центральные банки мира должны заранее планировать и работать более тесно вместе, чтобы обеспечить достаточное финансирование мирового банковского рынка в случае очередного финансового кризиса. Об этом в четверг заявил Банк международных расчетов (BIS). В новом отчете от BIS были определены восемь областей, которым необходимо уделить внимание, чтобы помочь уменьшить рыночную суматоху, и шесть из них касались более тесного сотрудничества и связи. Первым было то, что центральным банкам необходимо решить, какой из них отвечает за банки с операциями в нескольких странах. Остальные варьировались от обмена информацией, залога и валютных вопросов. "Основная идея всего доклада заключается в том, что нам необходимо подготовится в спокойное время, чтобы быть в состоянии эффективно оказывать помощь ликвидности в периоды стресса", - сказал представитель Федеральной резервной системой США Уильям Дадли, который возглавлял рабочую группу BIS на эту тему. "Одним из осложнений при предоставлении банкам финансирования на суммы миллиардов долларов или евро, что делали ФРС, ЕЦБ, Банк Японии и другие банки во время финансового кризиса, является то, что деньги могут затем "перетекать" куда угодно. Общий урок, который получен из обзора недавнего опыта центрального банка, заключается в том, что необходимо быть готовым к новым ситуациям, где может потребоваться помощь ликвидности", - сообщили в Банке международных расчетов. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

04 апреля, 23:25

The Fed Has Shifted (And The Market Missed It)

Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog, The Fed has a new message. So far the market is not listening, but it should be, as the shift will have a profound effect on financial markets. It started with the dissent at the last FOMC meeting from Neel Kashkari. In an unusual move, Kashkari published a blog piece explaining his dissent. Although he presented plenty of the usual reasons for not going along with the hike (mostly centered around the whole idea of the 2% inflation being a target, not a ceiling), Kashkari introduced the idea the Fed should be thinking about unwinding its balance sheet. Proving that stopped clocks are right twice a day, I have written about the possibility the Fed would shift their tightening bias through traditional Fed Funds raises, to balance sheet wind down - (The End of Calm Bond Markets). Continuing to raise rates while maintaining the large balance sheet could create a negative cash flow situation for the Federal Reserve. Given this worry, it makes no sense for them to tighten policy through rates when they can accomplish the same thing through the unwinding of their balance sheet. It looks as if the Fed has taken this idea to heart. From Business Insider: Today it was New York Fed President William Dudley’s job to hammer home the message. He’s one of the most influential members on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. His New York Fed deals with the securities that are on the Fed’s balance sheet as a result of QE. And he said the Fed might start reversing QE this year. With this call to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, he is following in the footsteps of other Fed heads, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, San Francisco Fed President John Williams, and most notably Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren – a former “dove” who has been publicly fretting about bubbles in commercial real estate and housing and the risks they pose to “financial stability.” So this theme unraveling QE, not in the foggy future but this year, is picking up momentum. I disagree with Business Insider that the theme is picking up momentum. The Fed is bashing the message over our heads with a stick. That’s not momentum, that’s a pedal to the metal press. The Federal Reserve is signaling that although they are not retracting the guidance for 3 hikes this year (meaning two more as we have already done one), any further tightening will be done from the unwinding of the Fed’s balance sheet. We had QE. Now we are going to have reverse QE. From Business Insider again - quoting NY Fed President Bill Dudley: “It wouldn’t surprise me if sometime later this year or sometime in 2018, should the economy perform in line with our expectations, that we’ll start to gradually let securities mature rather than reinvesting them.” “If we start to normalize the balance sheet, that’s a substitute for short-term rate hikes because it would also work in the direction of tightening financial conditions.” “If and when we decide to begin to normalize the balance sheet we might actually decide at the same time to take a little pause in terms of raising short-term interest rates.” BAM! There it is. The Fed will stop raising rates, and will instead start using the balance sheet to tighten policy. I can’t say I disagree with anything good old Bill has said so far, but then he trotted out this gem: And he is “not that worried that the markets are going to react to the changes in our balance sheet in a violent way because it’s already factored in.” Bullshit. This policy is not factored in at all. Not even close. This whole Fed communication push is the first attempt to have the market understand the policy shift. So what does it mean? And more importantly, how do we profit from it? Let’s start with the obvious trade. If the Federal Reserve shifts from tightening monetary policy through Fed Funds rate hikes to balance sheet wind down, short rates will not rise as much as would otherwise be the case. At its extreme, the Federal Reserve would also be selling long dated securities. All of this adds up to a steeper yield curve. Since Yellen has taken over as Fed Chairperson, the yield curve has been continually flattening as she has steadily withdrawn monetary accommodation. Market participants are convinced the Fed will continue with this policy for some time to come. Speculators have never been more short 3 month Eurodollar futures contracts. These contracts are not foreign exchange contracts and have nothing to do with the European currency, but instead represent the best way to hedge US dollar short term rates. So let me get this straight. Speculators are betting heavily on higher US short term rates, meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is signaling they might slow down rate hikes and replace it with balance sheet reduction? There are many different ways to play this potentail unwind, but I certainly wouldn’t want to be short any US dollar fixed income instrument shorter than five years. Yet yield curve shifts aren’t the only opportunities offered up from the Fed’s policy change. The Federal Reserve owns $2.4 trillion of US Treasuries and $1.8 trillion in mortgage backed bonds. If I were a member of the FOMC board, I would push to wind down the mortgage back bonds first, but even if they choose a pro-rata wind down, the Fed will no longer be purchasing a large amount of mortgage backed securities that they were previously rolling. Mortgage backed securities are different from US Treasuries. As rates decline, more homeowners refinance, so the mortgage instrument’s duration declines - right when you want the opposite to happen. When rates rise, fewer homeowners refinance, so the duration extends - again, right at the worse time. Mortgages are therefore negative volatility securities. When the Fed was buying mortgages, they were removing volatility from the bond market. Conversely, when they sell, they would be demanding volatility. This is a good argument for owning fixed income volatility, but there is another aspect to the Fed’s change that might present an even better opportunity. Ben Melkman from Light Sky Macro was recently interviewed on RealVision TV. There have been some really smart people on RealVision, but I think Ben might be at the top of my list. Instead of trying to rehash his point, here is his argument from that interview: “The Fed has been a whole flow of mortgages for many years. And when the Fed buys mortgages, they don’t hedge any of the extension duration characteristics of mortgages… If the Fed stops buying mortgages, the private sector will have to start buying those mortgages, just as yields are going higher (ie: away from the average coupon). As you do that, those mortgages extend pretty quickly in duration. In that environment, those private sector holders have to hedge that duration extension risk by paying swap. So not only is the Fed making the private sector buy more duration as the mortgages extend that increases rapidly, and so I think two things happen. The curve sells off and steepens, and this becomes a good catalyst for what has been a very distorted swap spread curve (usually swaps trade at a lower yield than bonds, LIBOR risk should trade at a higher risk than government risk.)” I have spoken about the strange anomalies in the swap market before - “How many other could never happens are out there?”. Heck, I even chronicled how, like an idiot, I was buying the swap spread “Only for the bravest and stupidest” Back then I didn’t have a reason to bet on a return to normalcy except that negative swap spreads were dumb. But now I have a catalyst. The Fed’s shift in policy should cause the previously negative swap spreads to expand back to more normal levels. Not only that, but there is another tailwind that Melkman did not mention. Theoretically swap spreads should never go negative. The counter party risk of the bank on the other side of the swap is higher than the risk free US treasuries. It makes no sense for swaps to trade lower than Treasuries. Yet they did. Although no one knows with certainty the reasons, the lack of bank balance sheet availability was definitely a contributing factor. After the great credit crisis 2008, as regulations tightened, banks were less willing to extend credit for swap trades. Therefore demand for swaps outpaced supply, pushing the yield below Treasuries. With Trump’s victory, it is safe to say that regulation is only headed one way. Banks are already opening up their balance sheets. And when combined with the recent rate rises, swaps have finally started to trade at levels more appropriate. US 5 year swap spreads have even gone from negative to positive levels once again. That means the US 5 year swap rate is above the 5 year treasury yield. Professor Malkiel can once again put that portion of the swap curve back into his lesson plan of efficient markets. Farther out the curve, swap spreads are doing their best, but have not yet crossed out of “illogical” levels. But, at the long end of the curve, the streams are still crossed. Putting it all together, with the Fed signaling a move away from rate hikes as their preferred method of removing accommodation towards letting their balance sheet wind down, this should mean a steeper yield curve with widening swap spreads. Buying the 5/30 steepener, but instead of shorting 30 year Treasuries, replacing it with short 30 year swaps, means you can pick up an extra 40 basis points (for us hacks that don’t have ISDA’s, there is a swap future you can trade. See my previous post about swaps to learn how to hedge it properly.) The Fed is communicating a big shift in policy. So far the market has not responded, but that just means there is more opportunity for those who understand how to profit from it.

04 апреля, 13:00

Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка предупреждает о растущем студенческом долге

Высокопоставленный чиновник ФРС предупредил в понедельник о долгосрочных последствиях влияния долгов студентов на владение недвижимостью, а также потребительские расходы, заявив, что доля студенческих кредитов с просроченными платежами оставалась на упорно высоком уровне. Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли заявил, что просрочки по студенческим кредитам в США сейчас выше, чем в любой другой категории домохозяйств: они выросли до 11.2% в течение последних трех месяцев 2016 года. Следующая категория в зоне риска - долги по кредитным картам с 7.1%. Серьезным нарушением по долгу считается просрочка на 90 дней и более. Совокупный объем студенческого долга составляет $1.3 трлн., таким образом, это прирост на 170% с 2006 года из-за того, что студенты стали получать более крупные кредиты после сокращения финансовой поддержки колледжей. Проблемы с выплатами особенно остро чувствуются в регионах с низким уровнем дохода. Дадли отказался комментировать какие-то конкретные действия в отношении государственной политики, однако заявил, что доступность кредитования на обучение для домохозяйств с средним доходом все же принесет свои плоды в будущем. Комментарии чиновника последовали за обрушившимся шквалом негодования на администрацию Трампа, когда они стали разворачивать усилия прошлой администрации по облегчению бремени студенческого долга. В прошлом месяце департамент образования намекал на то, что может перестать следовать программе прощения кредитов для госслужащих эпохи Буша по всем кредитам. Заемщикам говорили, что они подпадают под программу прощения кредитов после 10 лет работы в госсекторе, однако стали появляться судебные иски, из которых становится понятно, что департамент отказывается от выполнения этой программы. New York Fed chief warns on US student debt, FT, Apr 4Источник: FxTeam

04 апреля, 10:16

Рынок не верит в фантазии ФРС

Представители Федеральной резервной системы с завидной регулярностью появляются на публике и рассказывают о дальнейшем ужесточении свое политики, а также о том, как хорошо себя чувствует экономика. Но в это почти никто не верит.

04 апреля, 10:16

Рынок не верит в фантазии ФРС

Представители Федеральной резервной системы с завидной регулярностью появляются на публике и рассказывают о дальнейшем ужесточении свое политики, а также о том, как хорошо себя чувствует экономика. Но в это почти никто не верит.

Выбор редакции
03 апреля, 22:55

New York Fed's Dudley Admits Fed-Inspired Student Debt Bubble Is Headwind For Economy

Having confessed to the fact that Fed "forecasts" are as useless as any other guess (and not commitments), NY Fed's Bill Dudley admitted this morning that the Fed-inspired student-loan bubble is a debt overhang that both inhibits home ownership and is a headwind to economic growth. “If you look at the Summary of Economic Projections, it’s a forecast” and not a commitment, New York Fed President William Dudley says in New York at press conference on trends in household borrowing and student debt. We would tend to suggest it was not even that Mr. Dudley...   But the real headlines were for the research report his PhDs had created that suggested - shock, horror - that gorging one's self on cheap credit in the short-run to get an education that is worth less each day (because any Tom, Dick, or Dufus can now get to college - because it's fair and just and right) is potentially a bad thing and could hamper the long-run economy. No shit, we hear you cry. But let's let the PhDs explain... Student debt has more than doubled over the past decade to $1.3 trillion. But a significant minority of borrowers are defaulting on their student loans and in turn harming their credit and ability to purchase homes, the report shows. More than 1 in 10 borrowers are at least 90 days behind on their student debt. The delinquency rate for student loans is far higher than it is for other forms of credit, including mortgages, credit cards and auto loans.   Only about 5% of student-loan borrowers owe more than $100,000. But they account for almost a third of all outstanding student debt. Borrowers on average leave school owing about $34,000, up nearly 70% from a decade ago. Student debt appears to dampen homeownership rates among those with the same level of education, the report said. ...our analysis shows that for any given level of educational attainment, those with student debt are less likely to own a home in their early thirties than those who completed their education without taking on as much—or any—debt.   To the extent that the statistical associations we uncovered reflect a causal impact of debt on homeownership, they have important implications for the housing market and future spending behavior.   Homeownership represents an important means of wealth accumulation, with housing equity being the principal form of wealth for most households.   So, changes in the way we finance higher education, with an increased reliance on student debt, may have important implications for the housing market and the distribution of wealth. We expect to report new findings from ongoing research on this topic in the future. So after driving down rates to 5000 year record lows to force cheap credit on the world to inspire some as-yet-unsighted animal spirits real recovery, The Fed now suddenly sees the light and realizes that burdenning people with excess debt may not be the best idea after all. As far as Mr. Dudley's sudden discovery of the common-sense lobe of his brain, we have one word... "brilliant"

03 апреля, 16:19

Чиновники ФРС играют долларом

Динамика доллара на прошлой неделе определялась заявлениями чиновников ФРС на фоне неплохой американской статистики. Рост доллара с начала недели, начавшись как техническая коррекция из состояния перепроданности, получил в среду риторическую поддержку от президента ФРБ Бостона ЭрикаРозенгрена, который заявил, что ФРС должна быть готова, в случае необходимости, поднять ставки не три, а четыре раза в текущем году, чтобы не допустить перегрева экономики США. Ему вторил президент ФРБ Сан-Франциско Джон Уильямс.

03 апреля, 15:39

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Consensus expected 175K jobs to be added at Friday's US Nonfarm payrolls. Additionally, there will be updates on Eurozone industrial production data, a series of ECB speakers and the French election TV debate. In EM, there are monetary policy meetings in India, Israel, Peru, Poland and Romania as well as a series of rating reviews. Market participants will also be paying attention to the meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago. The US non-farm payrolls take center stage Economists think nonfarm payrolls grew by 175,000 in March, implying another strong month of job gains. Incoming data on the labor market in March have been positive: regional business surveys such as the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys suggest hiring activity picked up. Moreover, the labor market differential index from the Conference Board's consumer confidence report surged to 12 in March marking the highest reading since August 2001. Overall, while the risks to the forecast are balanced analysts don't believe an upside surprise has the potential to influence June rate hike pricing given the French elections. Fed and ECB minutes to also gather attention Also on this week's docket will be the March FOMC minutes where the balance of risks is skewed towards a more hawkish interpretation by the market - in potential contrast to the March FOMC dovish reaction to the lower than expected Fed dots path.  The ECB also releases its March meeting minutes where the market will try to get more insight over the precise points of dispute between hawks and doves concerning monetary policy tightening and the sequencing of instruments. Given the re-pricing of forwards following hike expectations pushback over the last week and the permanence of 5y premia pricing, there is limited scope for a drop in front-end rates. Emerging Markets There will be monetary policy meetings in India, Israel, Peru, Poland and Romania. Rating reviews in Belarus, Czech Republic, Morocco, Romania, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. Summary of key weekly data In the US beyond FOMC minutes and NFPs, we get ISM manufacturing, construction spending and trade balance. In the Eurozone, we have German industrial production and Eurozone retail sales & unemployment. We also note ECB's Draghi, Constancio, Coeure and Praet are to speak. Finally, we also highlight the second French presidential TV debate on Tuesday. In UK, PMIs, industrial production, construction data and trade balance are the focus. In Japan, we mainly await confidence surveys In Canada, main releases include labor data, PMI (manufacturing) and building permits. In China, we only highlight PMI manufacturing. Visually, courtesy of BofA: From DB's Jim Reid, here is a breakdown of key daily events: This morning we’re kicking off the week in Europe with the final manufacturing PMI’s for March as well as a first look at the data for the UK and periphery. Also due out is PPI and unemployment rate data for the Euro area. This afternoon in the US we’ll get the final manufacturing and composite PMI’s for March along with the ISM manufacturing print and February construction spending data. Later this evening we’ll also get the March vehicle sales data. During the Asia session tomorrow we’ll have the RBA meeting outcome where no change is expected. In Europe we’ve got retail sales data for the Euro area due while in the US we will get the final durable and capital goods orders data revisions for February, along with February’s trade balance reading and factory orders data. Wednesday looks set to be a busy data with the final March services and composite PMI’s due in Japan and then in Europe. We’ll also get the final services PMI in the US along with the ADP employment report for March and ISM non-manufacturing print. Also due out will be the March FOMC meeting minutes. Turning to Thursday, the early data is due out of China with the Caixin PMI’s. In Germany we’ll get factory orders data while the ECB meeting minutes will also be released around lunchtime. In the US on Thursday the calendar is quiet with just initial jobless claims data due. It looks set to be a busy end to the week on Friday. In Europe we are due to get industrial production reports and trade data for the UK, France and Germany. In the US all eyes will be on the March employment report including the all important payrolls print. Wholesale inventories and consumer credit will also be due out in the US. Away from the data the Fedspeakers this week include Dudley, Harker and Lacker today followed by Tarullo on Tuesday and Williams on Thursday. The ECB’s Coeure speaks today. Away from that, the second French presidential debate is due tomorrow night. As with the first debate it will be televised live. President Trump is also due to host China President Xi Jinping on Thursday and Friday. An informal EU finance ministers meeting is also due on Friday and Saturday. * * * Finally, a summary of all key US events with consensus expectations and highlights from Goldman Monday, April 3 09:45 AM Markit flash US manufacturing PMI, March final (consensus 53.5, last 53.4) 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, March (GS 57.0, consensus 57.2, last 57.7): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in March, and we expect ISM manufacturing to decrease by 0.7pt to 57.0 in the March report. The Philly Fed (-10.5pt to +32.8), Dallas Fed (-7.6pt to +16.9), and Empire State (-2.3pt to +16.4) manufacturing sector surveys declined while the Kansas City (+6pt to +20) and Richmond Fed (+5pt to +22) surveys moved higher. The Chicago PMI also edged up. Our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—remains roughly unchanged at 59.1 in March. 10:00 AM Construction spending, February (GS +1.1%, consensus +1.0%, last -1.0%): We expect construction spending to increase 1.1% in February, following a larger than expected 1.0% decline in January that reflected weaker public residential and nonresidential spending. Unseasonably warm weather is likely to contribute to a stronger February number. 10:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will host a press briefing on household borrowing, student debt trends, and the impact of student debt and educational attainment on homeownership. Q&A is expected. 03:00 Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will give a speech on financial technology at the University of Pennsylvania School of Engineering and Applied Science’s Technology, Business, and Government Lecture series. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 05:00 PM Total vehicle sales, March (GS 17.3mn, consensus 17.3mn, last 17.5mn): Domestic vehicle sales, March (GS 13.8mn, consensus 13.7mn, last 13.7mn) Tuesday, April 4 08:30 AM Trade balance, February (GS -$44.2bn, consensus -$44.5bn, last -$48.5bn): We estimate the trade deficit narrowed sharply in February. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed a reversal of January’s widening in the goods trade deficit—likely related to the relatively early Chinese New Year—and we forecast similar improvement in the broader trade balance in this week’s report. 10:00 AM Factory orders, February (GS +1.0%, consensus +1.0, last +1.2%); Durable goods orders, February final (consensus +1.9%, last +1.7%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods orders, February final (last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, February final (last +1.0%): We expect factory orders to rise 1.0% following a 1.2% increase in January. Last week’s durable goods report showed stronger new durable goods orders and a rebound in core capital goods orders. 04:30 PM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will give a speech titled “Departing Thoughts” at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University in New Jersey. Audience Q&A is expected. Wednesday, April 5 08:15 AM ADP employment report, March (GS +200k, consensus +195k, last +298k): We expect a 200k increase in ADP payroll employment in March, reflecting encouraging hiring trends partially offset by some net softness in the financial and economic indicators also utilized in the ADP model. The ADP report introduced methodological changes with the October release and now offers more details by sector. While we believe the ADP employment report holds limited value for forecasting the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report, we find that large ADP surprises vs. consensus forecasts are directionally correlated with nonfarm payroll surprises. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, March final (last 52.9): 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, March (GS 56.5, consensus 57.0, last 57.6): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing survey to decrease to 56.5 from 57.6 in the March report. Regional non-manufacturing surveys were on net softer in March, though they continue to signal moderate expansion in service-sector business activity. The Richmond Fed (-6pt to +9), New York Fed (-3.7pt to +11.5, SA by GS), and Dallas Fed (+2.4pt to +13.2) surveys all pulled back, while the Philly Fed non-manufacturing index strengthened (+6.1pt to +35.4). Overall, our non-manufacturing survey tracker ticked down to 56.7 in March (vs. 56.8 in February). 02:00 PM FOMC Minutes from the March 14-15 meeting: The FOMC raised the funds rate target range by 25bp at its March meeting and made minor revisions to its statement. The median dot in the Summary of Economic Projections continued to show three hikes in both 2017 and 2018. In the minutes, we will look for any hints about the plans for balance sheet normalization, timing of the next hike as well, as well as any comments about the FOMC’s evolving expectations for fiscal policy under the new administration. Thursday, April 6 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended April 1 (GS 245k, consensus 250k, last 258k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 25 (consensus 2,040k, last 2,052k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined 13k to 245k, reversing the elevated readings of the past two weeks that we believe reflected the impact of Winter Storm Stella, which hit the US during the week of March 18th. State-level details suggest that the storm raised jobless claims by about 15k in each week. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – have continued to trend down in recent months, suggestive of additional labor market improvement that we expect to continue. 09:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve President John Williams will participate in a moderated panel discussion at the annual ECB and its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. The topic of the panel is focused on the questions: “Do monetary policy frameworks need to be adjusted in a world of (potentially) low natural real interest rates? If so, how?”. Friday, April 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, March (GS +170k, consensus +175k, last +235k); Private payroll employment, March (GS +170k, consensus +180k, last +227k); Average hourly earnings (mom), March (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), March (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.8%); Unemployment rate, March (GS 4.7%, consensus 4.7%, last 4.7%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls increased 170k in March following a 235k increase in February and compared to a three-month moving average of +209k. While we expect underlying job growth to be supported by encouraging employment surveys, we believe a sharp drop in temperatures and the early-month winter storms will depress payroll growth in weather-sensitive categories. Winter Storm Stella impacted the Midwest and East Coast early in the payroll survey week, and we believe the weather impact could be particularly large in comparison to February, which exhibited unseasonably warm weather and limited snowfall. A second potential headwind this month is the federal hiring freeze announced in late January (excluding defense and public safety), which could weigh on government payrolls. The extent of the headwind on overall payroll growth may be mitigated by the ability of government departments to circumvent the hiring freeze, for example through reduced attrition or increased contracted hiring, and these employer strategies may help explain the minimal impact of the hiring freeze in last month’s report. We expect the unemployment rate to remain stable to 4.7%, as the pace of household employment growth has picked up sharply over the last few months and may be due a pause. Finally, we expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.2% month over month and 2.7% year over year, reflecting the interaction of firming wage growth with slightly negative calendar effects. 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, January final (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%) 12:15 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech titled “Remarks on the State of Financial Regulation and the Potential for Reform” at the Princeton Club of New York. Moderated Q&A is expected. 03:00 PM Consumer credit, February (consensus +$13.8bn, last +$8.8bn) Source: BofA, DB, GS

03 апреля, 13:44

Сегодня в США ожидается выход двух показателей и несколько выступлений

В понедельник, 3 апреля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация двух отслеживаемых нами показателей. Так, в 17:00 МСК мы узнаем мартовское значение индекса экономических условий ISM в производственной сфере. Ожидается, что показатель снизился с 57,7 пункта месяцем ранее до 57,0 пункта. Также в 17:00 МСК будут опубликованы февральские данные по расходам на строительство. Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель увеличился на 1,0% после снижения на аналогичную величину в предыдущем месяце. Из второстепенных показателей можно отметить индекс выплаченных цен ISM за март и мартовский блок данных по продажам автотранспорта. В календаре корпоративных отчетностей интересных имен сегодня нет. В 17:30 МСК свою речь представит глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли, а в 0:00 МСК начнется выступление главы ФРБ Ричмонда Джэфри Лэкера. К 13:38 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с понижением на 0,01%.

03 апреля, 13:05

Сегодня в США ожидается выход двух показателей и несколько выступлений

В понедельник, 3 апреля, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация двух отслеживаемых нами показателей. Так, в 17:00 МСК мы узнаем мартовское значение индекса экономических условий ISM в производственной сфере. Ожидается, что показатель снизился с 57,7 пункта месяцем ранее до 57,0 пункта. Также в 17:00 МСК будут опубликованы февральские данные по расходам на строительство. Согласно нашим прогнозам, показатель увеличился на 1,0% после снижения на аналогичную величину в предыдущем месяце. Из второстепенных показателей можно отметить индекс выплаченных цен ISM за март и мартовский блок данных по продажам автотранспорта. В календаре корпоративных отчетностей интересных имен сегодня нет. В 17:30 МСК свою речь представит глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли, а в 0:00 МСК начнется выступление главы ФРБ Ричмонда Джэфри Лэкера. К 13:40 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с понижением на 0,28%.

03 апреля, 11:20

Как президентские выборы во Франции повлияют на ЕС и евро?

Влияние на рынок:3Devata TsengПервый раунд президентских выборов во Франции пройдёт 23 апреля, второй раунд состоится 7 мая.Прогноз на итоги первого раунда по трём кандидатам следующий: Ле Пен, Макрон и Фийон 25.8%, 25.1% и 18.4% соответственно. Шансы Макрона и Ле Пен на попадание во второй раунд составляют 98% и 96% соответственно.Фийон оказался под существенным давлением, так как его жена под следствием из-за фиктивной парламентской должности.Избирательная кампания Ле Пен в центре внимания из-за её ультраправых взглядов и высокой вероятности победы. Она заняла позицию аналогичную Трампу, в центре её внимания прежде всего французская тематика, включая антиглобализацию, антииммиграцию, торговый протекционизм, выход Франции из состава ЕС, отказ от евро и пересчёт долгов страны.Многие французы поддерживают политику Ле Пен в связи с высоким уровнем безработицы, недавними террористическими атаками, вызвавшими существенные антииммигрантские настроения.Франция и Германия – крупнейшие экономики ЕС. Если Франция также покидает ЕС следом за Brexit, другие члены ЕС также могут последовать этому примеру, тогда есть вероятность распада всего блока, что выльется в обвал евро.Сегодня публикуется индекс деловой активности PMI от Markit для Британии в 09:30 BST. Индекс деловой активности в производственном секторе (PMI) от ISM, а также индекс цен в производственном секторе за март будут опубликованы в 15:00 BST с перспективной волатильности для доллара. Индекс доллара превысил максимум за 2 недели на уровне 100.49 в прошлую пятницу.Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли выступит в 15:30 BST, следом выступят член FOMC Харкер в 20:00 BST и президент ФРБ Ричмонда Джеффри Лэкер в 22:00 BST.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/03042017-kak-prezidentskie-vyiboryi-vo-frantsii-povliyayut-na-es-i-evro/ ..Источник: FxTeam

12 октября 2015, 23:05

ФРС может опустить ставки ниже 0% при новом кризисе

В руководстве Федеральной резервной системы рассматривают возможность использования отрицательных процентных ставок, в случае если американская экономика вновь столкнется с серьезным кризисом.