Члены FOMC (Федерального комитета по открытым рынкам – Federal Open Market Committee) ФРС и Европейского ЦБ, выступавшие вчера вечером и сегодня в течение дня, проявили в своих выступлениях удивительную мягкость и гибкость. Мягкость в отношении возможного ужесточения монетарной политики и гибкость в формулировках, касающихся обсуждения данной темы. Члены FOMC Нил Кашкари и Уильям Дадли, а также члены ЕЦБ Бенуа Кёре и Питер Прат во главе со своим руководителем Марио Драги говорили много, но то ли слишком обтекаемо, то ли мы просто ничего не поняли. Впрочем, реакция зарубежных рынков свидетельствует больше в пользу первой версии. Единственным, кто более-менее внятно высказался за отказ от чрезмерной спешки, был Кашкари. Только что начала выступать и Джанет Йеллен. Посмотрим, как обстоят дела с твёрдостью у неё. Других новостей, способных существ
Update: In her prepared remarks, Yellen crucially said, “A more important issue from a policy standpoint is that some key assumptions underlying the baseline outlook could be wrong in ways that imply that inflation will remain low for longer than currently projected.” As Bloomberg explains, she is stating a bit more clearly than before that the FOMC doesn’t have a handle on why inflation is low and acknowledging that it may last longer than they predict. * * * As we detailed earlier, on the heels of Bostic ("we didn't blow any bubbles") Brainard ("some barriers to growth are structural") this morning and Kashkari ("no inflation"), Evans ("need more data"), and Dudley ("inflation's coming soon") yesterday; it is Fed Chair Janet Yellen's turn to speak this afternoon on "Inflation, Uncertainty and Monetary Policy" as the dollar extends its post-FOMC gains (to 1-month highs). Since The FOMC, Fed Speakers have been active... Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed president: "I actually don’t think that our policies are too easy in the sense of really facilitating some sort of asset bubble." Lael Brainard, Fed governor: Benefits of a lengthy U.S. recovery “can only go so far” and some barriers appear to be structural, sees "widening gulf" between large, small cities. Neel Kashkari, president Minneapolis, FOMC voter in 2017: “I don’t see inflation taking off so I see no need to tap the brakes.” Charles Evans, president Chicago Fed, voting member: “I think we need to see clear signs of building wage and price pressures before taking the next step in removing accommodation.” William Dudley, president New York Fed, permanent voter (and most notably considered to be closely aligned with Yellen's way of thinking): “With a firmer import price trend and the fading of effects from a number of temporary, idiosyncratic factors, I expect inflation will rise and stabilize around the FOMC’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.” As a reminder, the Fed Chair said that "we don't fully understand inflation" and added that the "shortfall of inflation this year is more of a mystery," but, while Yellen speaking would normally be must-watch, with only a few days having passed since her post-statement press conference, we wonder just how much flip-flopping is possible. At that appearance, the Fed chief also downplayed the significance of the weak core inflation data as the central bank set the start date for the reduction of its balance sheet and signaled that an additional rate hike this year remained appropriate. Additionally, though we doubt she will comment on it, Republican Senator Richard Shelby said he doesn’t think President Donald Trump will nominate Yellen for a second term at the helm of the U.S. central bank. Shelby said Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Vonnie Quinnthat he had spoken with the president about the Fed. “I believe he will appoint somebody else to take her place,” the No. 2 Republican on the Senate Banking Committee said. “But ultimately, that is up to the president.” Live Feed (from The National Association of Business Economics) click image for link to Bloomberg's Live Coverage Headlines include (via Reuters) YELLEN SEES 'CONSIDERABLE' ODDS THAT INFLATION WON'T STABILIZE AT 2-PCT OVER NEXT FEW YEARS FED'S YELLEN SAYS UNCERTAINTIES STRENGTHEN CASE FOR GRADUAL RATE HIKES YELLEN SAYS GRADUAL APPROACH TO RATE HIKES PARTICULARLY APPROPRIATE IN LIGHT OF SUBDUED INFLATION, LOW NEUTRAL RATE YELLEN SAYS THERE IS A RISK INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT AS WELL-ANCHORED AS THEY APPEAR YELLEN SAYS DATA SUGGESTS LABOR MARKET IS HEALTHY, WITHOUT SUBSTANTIAL SLACK AND NOT OVERHEATED YELLEN SAYS EVIDENCE ON LABOR MARKET NOT DEFINITIVE, MUST BE 'OPEN-MINDED' YELLEN SAYS WOULD BE IMPRUDENT TO LEAVE RATES ON HOLD UNTIL INFLATION REACHES 2 PCT YELLEN SAYS FED CAN STILL ACHIEVE 2-PCT INFLATION GOAL EVEN IF IT IS UNDERESTIMATING SLACK OR OVERESTIMATING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FED'S YELLEN SAYS LOW INFLATION LIKELY DUE TO TRANSITORY FACTORS, SEES MANY UNCERTAINTIES YELLEN SAYS DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION COULD PROVE UNEXPECTEDLY PERSISTENT YELLEN SAYS FED SHOULD BE `WARY OF MOVING TOO GRADUALLY' YELLEN SAYS WOULD BE IMPRUDENT TO LEAVE RATES ON HOLD UNTIL INFLATION REACHES 2 PCT Via Bloomberg: Fed Chair Janet Yellen said FOMC may have misjudged fundamental forces driving inflation and strength of labor market, and policy makers “stand ready to modify our views based on what we learn.” “We will need to stay alert” and adjust monetary policy as information comes in, Yellen said in text of speech Tuesday in Cleveland during annual meeting of National Association for Business Economics “My colleagues and I must be ready to adjust our assessments of economic conditions and the outlook when new data warrant it” Downward pressures on inflation “could prove to be unexpectedly persistent” Economic outlook is subject to “considerable uncertainty” FOMC’s understanding of the forces driving inflation is “imperfect,” policy makers recognize “something more persistent” may be responsible for current undershooting of long-run objective While inflation will most likely stabilize around 2% over the next few years, “odds that it could turn out to be noticeably different are considerable” There’s also risk that inflation expectations “may not be as well anchored as they appear and perhaps are not consistent with our 2 percent goal” Stabilizing inflation at around 2% “could prove to be more difficult than expected” Key assumptions underlying baseline outlook “could be wrong” in ways that imply inflation will remain low for longer than currently projected; for example, labor market conditions may not be as tight as they appear Under certain conditions, “continuing to revise our assessments in response to incoming data would naturally result in a policy path that is somewhat easier than that now anticipated” Significant uncertainties strengthen the case for gradual pace of tightening; however, Fed must also be wary of moving too gradually; “it would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2 percent” Actual value of long-run sustainable unemployment rate “could well be noticeably lower” than FOMC currently projects; can’t rule out possibility that some slack still remains in labor market Unemployment rate is probably “correct” in signaling that labor-market conditions have returned to pre-crisis levels; however, that doesn’t necessarily mean that economy is now at full employment Data suggest a generally healthy labor market, although can’t make “any definitive assessment”; policy makers “must remain open minded on this question” and its implications for reaching inflation goal
If you’re confused about the state of the US economy and what it means for monetary policy, you’re not alone. Speeches by Federal Reserve bank presidents on Monday outlined starkly different tones on the inflation outlook, which suggests that the case for more interest-rate hikes in the near term remains muddled. New York Fed President […]
В мире . Вчера в рамках выступления в Европарламенте глава ЕЦБ Марио Драги заявил, что волатильность европейской валюты вносит неопределенность в оценку уровня инфляции. Регулятор считает, что со временем инфляция приблизится к цели в 2%, однако для этого необходим значительный объем монетарных стимулов. Также, Драги подтвердил, что на заседании в октябре будет озвучен план сокращения программы количественного смягчения с текущих 60 млрд евро ежемесячно. Сокращение объема выкупа активов планируется начать в 2018 году. Рынок довольно сдержанно отреагировал на это заявления – в рынке уже заложены эти ожидания. Курс EURUSD опустился в район $1,18. Вчерашние выступления глав Федеральных резервных банков США оказывали на доллар США разнонаправленное влияние. Так, глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли заявил, что ускоряющийся рост экономики США окажет поддержку росту зарплат, и ФРС потребуется продолжить ужесточение монетарной политики.
ФРС плавно продолжит сворачивание стимулирующих мер, несмотря на временно снизившуюся инфляцию, считает глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли. Его точку зрения разделяют чиновники из ФРБ Канзас-Сити и Сан-Франциско, высказавшиеся за дальнейшее ужесточение монетарной политики на прошлой неделе. Для повышения ставки на декабрьском заседании, которое на текущий момент оценивается рынком порядка
При закреплении над отметкой 60$ нефтяные котировки смогут перейти в новый диапазон, - Сергей Дроздов,аналитик ГК "Финам"
ФРС плавно продолжит сворачивание стимулирующих мер, несмотря на временно снизившуюся инфляцию, считает глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли. Его точку зрения разделяют чиновники из ФРБ Канзас-Сити и Сан-Франциско, высказавшиеся за дальнейшее ужесточение монетарной политики на прошлой неделе. Для повышения ставки на декабрьском заседании, которое на текущий момент оценивается рынком порядка 60%, регулятор будет отслеживать динамику роста потребительских цен.
ФРС плавно продолжит сворачивание стимулирующих мер, несмотря на временно снизившуюся инфляцию, считает глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли. Его точку зрения разделяют чиновники из ФРБ Канзас-Сити и Сан-Франциско, высказавшиеся за дальнейшее ужесточение монетарной политики на прошлой неделе. Для повышения ставки на декабрьском заседании, которое на текущий момент оценивается рынком порядка 60%, регулятор будет отслеживать динамику роста потребительских цен. На прошедшей торговой сессии нефтяные котировки продемонстрировали бурный рост, сходу пробив сопротивление $57,50, и после его теста обновили многомесячные максимумы, закрывшись выше отметки $59. Такой динамике "черного золота" способствовала министерская встреча ОПЕК, прошедшая на прошлой неделе, участники которой смогли убедить рынки в том, что баланс спроса и предложения постепенно приходит в норму.
Американские фондовые индексы завершили снижением торги в понедельник из-за падения акций высокотехнологичных компаний и нового всплеска напряженности в отношениях между США и Северной Кореей.
В ходе выступления в понедельник глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли заявил, что усилению инфляции препятствует ряд временных идиосинкратических факторов, но их эффект не будет вечным, и в среднесрочной перспективе он ожидает роста инфляции и ее стабилизации у целевого уровня в 2%. Вкупе с продолжающимся ростом экономики США и ужесточением условий на рынке труда (рост экономики чуть выше тренда, по мнению Дадли, поддержит рост заработных плат) это означает, что ФРС потребуется п читать далее…
Федеральная резервная система (ФРС) США находится на пути к постепенному повышению процентных ставок, учитывая, что факторы, негативно влияющие на инфляцию, "угасают", а основы экономики США являются обоснованными, сказал глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.
Федеральная резервная система (ФРС) США находится на пути к постепенному повышению процентных ставок, учитывая, что факторы, негативно влияющие на инфляцию, "угасают", а основа экономики США являются обоснованными, сказал глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,496.75 (-0.11%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.35% до уровня 5,915.25. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют смешанную динамику. Nikkei 20,397.58 +101.13 +0.50% Hang Seng 27,500.34 -380.19 -1.36% Shanghai 3,340.81 -11.72 -0.35% S&P/ASX 5,683.73 +1.59 +0.03% FTSE 7,292.56 -18.08 -0.25% CAC 5,266.51 -14.78 -0.28% DAX 12,616.46 +24.11 +0.19% Ноябрьские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $50.66 за баррель (0.00%) Золото торгуется по $1,294.80 за унцию (-0.21%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительное снижение, так как инвесторы проявляют осторожность перед комментариями представителей ФРС, в том числе ее главы Джанет Йеллен, которая выступит во вторник в Кливленде (штат Огайо). Напомним, Федрезерв, как и ожидалось, оставил процентные ставки без изменений на своем сентябрьском заседании, но намекнул, что поддерживает еще одно повышение к концу года, несмотря на низкие показатели инфляции. Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли, который окончил свое выступление совсем недавно, отметил, что американская экономика растет "стабильно". В то же время он не комментировал ставки и перспективы экономики. Инвесторы теперь ожидают выступления президента Федерального резервного банка Чикаго Чарльза Эванса (16:40 GMT) и президента Федерального резервного банка Миннеаполиса Нила Кашкари (22:30 GMT). Важных статистических данных, которые смогли бы оказать влияние на настроения участников рынка, перед открытием не публиковалось. Значимых сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете также отмечено не было. В фокусе находятся акции General Motors (GM), которые подорожали на премаркете на 1.9% на фоне сообщения, что аналитики Deutsche Bank повысили их рейтинг до уровня Buy ("Покупать") с Hold ("Держать"). Акции компании Apple (AAPL) продолжают находиться под давлением (-1.3% на премаркете) так как продажи новых iPhone 8 в первый уик-энд оказались хуже, чем ожидалось.Источник: FxTeam
Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. We also get China PMIs, Japanese CPI and industrial production, the RBNZ meeting and Brexit negotiations (4th). Additionally, there will be monetary policy meetings in Mexico, Colombia, Czech Republic, Thailand and Egypt. Watch for Eurozone inflation and US data: In the Eurozone, Thursday's Spanish and German inflation releases are followed by Eurozone CPI the next day. BofA economists expect the latter to come in at 1.6% y/y in September up from 1.5% in August, as strength in oil is balanced by weaker food prices. They maintain a bearish view on core CPI, with expectations unchanged at 1.2% y/y, and do not see a sustained wages upswing, instead special factors explaining recent data. In the US the main data releases include PCE, home sales, durable goods, personal income and the final print for 2Q GDP. Core PCE is expected to increase 0.2% m/m in August while consensus expects new home sales at 588k. The impact of Hurricane Harvey and Irma prevented a recovery from July's decrease. Durable goods orders are expected at 1.0% m/m in August, supported by aircraft and motor vehicles. Expected a final 2Q GDP print of 3.1% q/q saar. Finally, August personal income is expected to come in at 0.2%. Additionally, we get the latest Chicago PMI and U.Mich. sentiment prints. Central bank speakers in the spotlight Two to look out for are Draghi on Monday, presenting the ECB perspective on economic and monetary developments, and Yellen on Tuesday, speaking about inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy. There is no change expected during the RBNZ meeting. A full summary of the key events in the coming week is shown in the following BofA chart below. DB's Jim Reid breaks down the week's key event on a daily basis: Today starts with Germany’s IFO indicators on business climate, expectations and current assessment. Over in the US, there is the Chicago Fed National and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. Onto Tuesday, Japan’s services producer price index will be out early in the morning. Then in France, there is manufacturing and business confidence indicators. In the UK, finance loans for housing are due. Over in the US, there is the CB consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, CoreLogic house price data for key cities as well as new home sales data. Turning to Wednesday, Italy’s July industrial orders along with confidence indicators on manufacturing, consumer and economic sentiment will be due. France’s consumer confidence and the Eurozone’s M3 money supply data are also due. Over in the US, there is durable and capital goods orders for August, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications. For Thursday, Germany’s September CPI (with state based CPI data) and GfK consumer confidence readings will be due. For the Eurozone, there is a range of confidence indicators including: consumers, business climate, economy and industrial. Over in the US, there is the third reading of 2Q GDP, Core PCE and personal consumption. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, August wholesale inventories and stats on continuing claims and initial jobless claims are also due. Finally on Friday, there will be numerous data out of Japan early in the morning, including: August national CPI, IP, jobless rate, retail sales and vehicle production. Further, China’s Caixin China PMI manufacturing index and UK’s GfK consumer confidence will also be out early. Then we have CPI for the Eurozone along with CPI & PPI for France and Italy. In Germany, there is unemployment change for September. In the UK, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP along with mortgage approvals and money supply M4 stats. Over in the US, there is PCE core for August, personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Onto other events, this week we have quite a few central bank speakers. Today, on the political front, Germany’s Merkel will comment on the election results, while Japan’s Abe is expected to announce a snap general election. Elsewhere, the UK Labour party conference will begin, while the next round of Brexit talks between EU and the UK will also begin. Moving onto central bankers. In the US, there are three Fed speakers, including Dudley, Evans and Kashkari. In Europe, ECB’s Draghi, Mersch and VP Constancio will also speak, while the ECB’s Coeure will chair a panel in Frankfurt. On Tuesday, there is the BOJ Minutes for its July meeting. In the US, the Fed’s Mester and Bostic will speak. Further, Mrs Yellen will speak on inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy. Back in the Europe, UK’s PM May and EU president Tusk will meet to discuss Brexit, while France’s Macron will outline his plans to reform the EU. Turning to Wednesday, we have three more Fed speakers, including: Bullard, Brainard and Rosengren. Then onto Thursday, we have two more Fed speakers, including George and Fischer. In the UK, the BOE will hosts the “20 years on” independence conference from the government, with BOE’s Carney, Praet and Lautenschlaeger due to speak. Finally, on Friday, there is BOJ’s summary of opinions for its September meeting. In the UK, IMF’s Lagarde, BOE’s Broadbent and Draghi will speak at the BOE conference. Over in the US, the Fed’s Harker will speak and round out the Fed speakers for the week. Finally, here is Goldman's focus only on the US, in which it notes that the key economic releases this week are the durable goods report on Wednesday and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Tuesday. Monday, September 25 08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech on workforce development at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, NY. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, September (GS, consensus 11.5, last 17.0) 12:40 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans will deliver a speech on the US economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Grand Rapids Luncheon Meeting in Michigan. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 06:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a town hall event in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Audience Q&A is expected. Tuesday, September 26 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to increase 0.4% in July, following a 0.1% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which was 5.7% in June. 09:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta will moderate a panel discussion on the global outlook at the NABE’s Conference on “Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals” in Cleveland, Ohio. 09:30 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans will give opening remarks at the 17th Annual Chicago Payments Symposium. 10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS +2.0%, consensus +3.3%, last -9.4%): We estimate new home sales rebounded just 2.0% in August, following a 9.4% drop in the prior month. While the level of new home sales looks depressed relative to single-family building permits, we note that Hurricane Harvey may have disrupted sales activity in the South region. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 119.5, consensus 120.0, last 122.9): We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index pulled back 3.4pt in September following a 5.6pt increase over the previous two months. Our forecast reflects sequential deterioration in higher frequency consumer surveys as well as scope for hurricane related weakness. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, September (consensus 13, last 14) 10:30 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on labor market disparities at a conference hosted by the Board of Governors, which will feature research on labor market outcomes in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected. 12:45 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be giving a speech titled “Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics’ annual meeting. Audience Q&A is expected. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting last week, Yellen downplayed the significance of the weak core inflation data. 12:30 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Atlanta Press Club. Audience Q&A is expected. Wednesday, September 27 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last -6.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods shipments, August preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.2%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 0.7% in the August report, reflecting a modest increase in commercial aircraft orders and continued firming in core measures. Orders commentary from industrial companies remains encouraging, and we estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation increased 0.5%. We also estimate firmer core capital goods orders (+0.4%). However, manufacturing production growth disappointed in August, suggesting scope for hurricane-related disruption to shipments. 09:15 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give welcoming remarks at the “Tribal Community Perspectives on Higher Education” event in Minneapolis. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, August (GS flat, consensus -0.5%, last -0.8%): Regional data we collect on contract signings were mixed in August, and we estimate pending home sales were unchanged in August, following a 0.7% decline in July. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. 02:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on labor market disparities, similar to her earlier remarks on Tuesday, at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed on “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers”. 07:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the Money Marketeers event in New York City. Thursday, September 28 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q2 (GS +3.0%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.0%); Personal consumption, Q2 (GS +3.3%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.3%): We do not expect a revision in the second vintage of Q2 GDP report (previously reported at +3.0% qoq saar). While we also forecast an unchanged reading for personal consumption (+3.3% qoq ar), we view the risks as skewed to the downside on account of the negative revisions to June retail sales. 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report; Advance goods trade balance, August preliminary (GS -$65.5bn, consensus -$65.1bn, last -$63.9bn): We estimate the goods trade deficit widened $1.6bn to $65.5bn in August. Regional port statistics suggest a slowdown in container volumes, and we expect the hurricane to weigh more heavily on export activity. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 23 (GS 255k, consensus 265k, last 259k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 16 (consensus 1,995k, last 1,980k): We estimate initial jobless claims fell 4k to 255k in the week ended September 23, reflecting a further rise in Florida filings related to Hurricane Irma that is more than offset by a further decline in Texas. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – rose sharply in the previous week, and could edge higher again reflecting storm effects. 09:45 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George will give a speech on the US economy and monetary policy at a forum titled “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers”. 10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give a speech on “Developments in Central Banking” at a conference hosted by the Bank of England in London. Audience Q&A is expected. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, September (last 16) Friday, September 29 06:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Federal Reserve will give a speech at a conference jointly hosted by Philly Fed and the Journal of Economics and Business on “Fintech: The Impact on Consumers, Banking, and Regulatory Policy”. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 8:30 AM Personal income, August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, August (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%); PCE price index, August (GS +0.26%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, August (GS +0.16%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (yoy), August (GS +1.47%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.4%); Core PCE price index (yoy), August (GS +1.34%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%): We estimate a 0.3% increase in August personal spending (nominal, mom sa), reflecting weakness in retail spending and utilities consumption likely related to Hurricane Harvey, partially offset by higher gas prices. Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index increased 0.16% month-over-month in August, or +1.34% from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index gained 0.26% in August, or +1.47% from a year earlier. We estimate a 0.3% increase in personal income. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, September (GS 59.5, consensus 58.7, last 58.9): Incoming regional manufacturing surveys have been better than expected in September, and we expect the Chicago PMI to rebound 0.6pt to 59.5 in the September report after a flat reading in July. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September final (GS 95.1, consensus 95.3, last 95.3): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge down 0.2pt to 95.1 in the final September estimate, reflecting sequential softness in higher frequency consumer surveys. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rose one-tenth to 2.6% in the preliminary reading, the top of its 12-month range. Source: BofA, DB, Goldman
"Наступившая неделя (наравне с факторами внутреннего спроса на рубль из-за налогов) насыщена событиями и выступлениями глав ключевых, центробанков на международной арене. Уже сегодня во второй половине дня выступят глава Европейского центрального банка Марио Драги и члены ФРС США Уильям Дадли и Чарлз Эванс. Движения на международном рынке Forex найдут отражения и на локальном валютном рынке. Общее позиционирование по российской валюте указывает на растущий спрос. По данным Комиссии по торговле товарными фьючерсами (CFTC), объем чистой длинной спекулятивной позиции во фьючерсах на рубль за неделю до 19 сентября вырос почти вдвое. Показатель составил 10 545 контрактов против 5 232 контрактов неделей ранее. Чистый "лонг" по российскому рублю нарастает уже третью неделю подряд после десятинедельного цикла чистого "шорта". В первой половине торговой сессии на Московской бирже доллар будет торговаться в зоне 57,30-58,80. Диапазон для евро сосредоточен в границах 68,30–69", - считает валютный стратег TeleTrade Александр Егоров.
In a recent op/ed in the Wall Street Journal, my former boss at the Council of Economic Advisers and Harvard economist Martin Feldstein points out that the data on real incomes in the United States systematically understate its growth. The article is titled "We're Richer Than We Realize," WSJ, September 8 (September 9-10 in the print edition.) An excerpt: Consider how the government handles manufactured products when their quality improves. Statisticians track a large number of products. For each, they ask the manufacturer two questions: Has the product changed since last year? If so, how much more does it cost to make this year's model than it would now cost to make last year's model? If there is no increase in the cost of production, the government concludes that there has been no increase in quality. And if the manufacturer reports an increase in the cost of production, the government assumes that the value of the product to consumers has increased in the same proportion. That's amazing! I knew, and have written about, the fact that the government understates improvements in quality. I had not known how naively the government did that. It reminds me of something I did know and reported on in "The Digital Economic Revolution," Red Herring, September 1, 1997. I wrote: Which brings us back to the government data. To compute labor productivity in an industry, the federal government's Bureau of Economic Analysis divides the output of an industry by the number of people employed. Not bad for, say, copper mining, where tons of copper mined is a pretty decent measure of output. But how do you think the federal government, with all its high-powered analysts and its multimillion-dollar budgets for gathering data, measures productivity in the banking industry? The number of transactions per employee? Or maybe the per-employee value of deposits and loans, adjusted for inflation? Neither. The Commerce Department's august Bureau of Economic Analysis measures output of banking by the number of people employed in banking. This means that if the number of banking employees rises by 10 percent, then the government's data crunchers simply assume that output rises by 10 percent. Therefore, the banking industry's productivity growth is zero, not by observation, but by definition. Of course, productivity in banking is growing. According to surveys by the Bank Administration Institute, the number of checks processed per hour, a measure of bank workers' productivity, rose from 265 items in 1971 to 825 in 1986, a rate of increase of 7.6 percent annually. Presumably computers were a factor in this productivity growth. And as noted by Martin Baily, an economist at the Brookings Institution, and Robert J. Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University, the per-check processing costs for electronic funds transfers (EFTs), which were made possible by the information technology revolution, are a fraction of the cost of conventional check processing. EFTs still constitute only a small percentage of transactions, but as this segment grows, productivity will increase. Marty points out another factor that understates growth: There are other problems that cause the official statistics to underestimate the true growth of real income. A basic government rule of GDP measurement is to count only goods and services that are sold in the market. Services like Google and Facebook are therefore excluded from GDP even though they are of substantial value to households. The increasing importance of such free services implies a further understatement of real income growth. Sadly, a number of commenters on the Journal's site failed to get his point. I'll quote three and, rather than tell you what's wrong with the commenters' statements, leave that as an exercise for the reader. Remember that these statements are made by people who, it is clear from tone, think they're challenging Marty's argument. matthew kimball writes: Another example is food has gone up and quality hasn't, gas has gone up, home price have gone up, clothing has gone up. All the essentials have gone up. Gregory Weinman writes: Telling me the LG G6 I bought to replace my LG G4 is far better is immaterial because both cost the same. John Callahan writes: Mr. Feldstein sounds much like New York Fed President William Dudley did half a decade ago--out of touch with the average American. Mr. Dudley was in Queens touting improvements in technology in regards to the cost of living- "Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful.... You have to look at the prices of all things." The residents of Queens were far more concerned about rapidly rising grocery and gasoline prices and rightfully so. As one resident noted, "You can't eat an iPad." [email protected] Francois Melese. (15 COMMENTS)
It is virtually guaranteed that on Wednesday the FOMC will make history by officially announcing the Fed's plan to begin shrinking its balance sheet through the gradual phasing out of bond reinvestments, which however in a world in which other central banks continue to pump $125 billion per month, will hardly by noticed by markets at least in the beginning. So aside from the start of balance sheet renormalization what else should traders expect tomorrow? Earlier today, we showed a cheat sheet from ING that broke down the various USD bullish and bearish permutations of how Yellen could still surprise the market, including the Fed's signalling on policy rates, economic projections, a shift in the "dots", comments on asset prices and, last but not least, whether Yellen will stay or leave when her term expires in Feb 2018. * * * For those seeking a more in-depth preview, here courtesy of RanSquawk, is the full "historic" September 20 FOMC Preview. FOMC likely to maintain rates between 1.00-1.25%; there will be focus on whether it flattens the rate hike trajectory The formal announcement of balance sheet reduction is expected; it’s unclear what size the Fed wants to return it to Growth and unemployment projections unlikely to see major changes; inflation may be trimmed again RATES Money markets price a very slim chance that the FOMC will hike rates this week, with an overwhelming 98.6% implied probability that the Federal Funds Rate target will remain between 1.00% to 1.25%. Looking ahead, markets now assign a 58% chance that rates will be lifted again in 2017. Federal Funds futures currently price in just two more hikes over the Fed’s current forecast horizon; the FOMC’s June forecasts pencilled in seven rate rises over that timeframe. Note, this week’s forecast will extend the horizon out to 2020. Given the cautious tone of comments from FOMC participants in recent weeks, it will be interesting to see whether the central bank lowers its trajectory for the rate path down, in line with the market’s view. However, analysts at Barclays do not expect a major revision to the median view of the rate profile, but sees the average falling: “We expect the median policy path to remain unchanged, but the average policy path should decline. We believe the average funds rate will decline by 15-25bp across the forecast horizon, and we believe as many as seven participants may signal that they prefer no further rate hikes this year (against nine participants who view one or more as appropriate).” BALANCE SHEET It is an almost a forgone conclusion that the FOMC will formally announce the start of its balance sheet programme; indeed, ‘several’ were ready to make the announcement in July. The Fed has also been given some leeway not that the debt ceiling has been extended until December. In June, the FOMC suggested a plan where it will allow $6bln of maturing Treasuries and $4bln of maturing MBS to roll-off per month for a three-month period; that amount would then be raised to $12bln for Treasuries and $8bln for MBS for another three months, and after a year, redemptions would be capped at $30bln for Treasuries and $20bln for MBS per month. The plan ensures the Fed wouldn’t have to outright sell any of its holdings immediately, which would cause a market reaction. In fact, Fed commentary suggests that the central bank wants to avoid any “shock and awe”; Loretta Mester (non-voter) said the intention is to set the policy, then “forget it”, suggesting that balance sheet would not be an active policy tool. Some questions remain unanswered; for instance, what size the FOMC is ultimately seeking to cut the balance sheet to. It is currently around $4.5trln; pre-crisis, it was around $800mln, but it is unlikely that the Fed intends to bring it down to that size. It seems as though the FOMC is still undecided: William Dudley (NY Fed, permanent voter) sees the balance sheet falling to between $2.4trln and $3.5trln – a wide range, but there doesn’t seem to be any firm consensus as yet. STAFF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS The Fed meets amid an improving tone in US economic data: The labour market has been ticking along nicely for some time, with the rate of joblessness beneath the Fed’s estimate of NAIRU. The second estimate of growth in Q2 was revised higher to 3.0%, well above the Fed’s longer-term view between 1.8% and 2.0%. Inflation has been the Achilles heel, but there are some signs of improvement here too. Recent CPI data showed upside surprises to headline and core rates; but the Fed’s preferred measure – core personal consumption expenditures – lingers at the lowest since Q4 2015 at (1.4% vs Fed’s June forecast of 1.7% in 2017); additionally, wage growth continues to disappoint, which may give the Fed ammunition to remain dovish. Analysts at Oxford Economics say “a key focus will be on the FOMC’s view of recent inflation readings and its degree of conviction about whether inflation will hit the 2% target over the medium-term,” adding “this in turn will underpin the committee’s decision about raising rates further this year and the pace of rate increases next year.” FOMC Chair Janet Yellen has previously attributed the weak inflation to temporary factors and called for patience. Many will look out for commentary on whether the Committee has reached a consensus on the extent to which low inflation is transitory, and how much patience should be extended. The likes of Neel Kashkari (voter, dovish) expressed outright concerns on inflation, whereas centrists like William Dudley see a return to target in the medium-term; others, like Robert Kaplan (voter) want to see more evidence before committing to a tighter monetary policy path. It is worth noting that the Fed’s forecast horizon will be extended out to 2020, and the FOMC’s June forecasts and the current market view are generally in line, with the exception of inflation, suggesting growth and unemployment forecasts will be little changed, though its short-term inflation views may be cut. PRESS CONFERENCE WITH CHAIR YELLEN Chair Janet Yellen will likely adopt her usual balanced approach in her press conference, according to SGH Macro Advisors, to ensure that the FOMC still has the option of a rate hike in 2017. “She will certainly give voice to dovish concerns over the persistence in low inflation and the possibility of a new inflation dynamic emerging,” SGH says, “but on balance, we still expect her to modestly tilt her remarks to a base rate path that would warrant a possible third-rate hike in December.” In addition to inflation, the Fed’s forecasts, and the immediacy of near-term rates hikes, Yellen may also be quizzed on FOMC personnel following the early resignation of Stanley Fischer. Tradition dictates that outgoing Governors do not usually attend the last meeting of their term; however, the Fed has confirmed that Fischer will be in attendance, though it is unclear whether he will be submitting economic forecasts. The upshot of Fischer’s resignation means that there would be four vacancies on the Fed’s Board of Governors; but additionally, there remains doubt around Chair Yellen’s own position when her term expires next year, and on top of that, the position of President of the Richmond Fed (which will have a vote in 2018) remains unfilled. * * * Finally, here are select sellside research takes on what to expect: Barclays: We believe the Fed will begin balance sheet normalization as described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee's Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. Beyond this, the committee will likely engage in extensive discussions about how much the underlying trend rate of inflation has slowed. We do not believe the committee will reach consensus on the extent to which slower inflation is transitory and, in turn, how much “patience” is needed before proceeding with further policy rate normalization or whether it is worth the risk to financial stability to run the domestic economy hotter. Yet, we believe some members will reflect their view that some of the slowing in inflation will be persistent and mark down modestly their inflation forecast for 2018. Although we do not expect the median policy rate path to change, we do expect the average federal funds rate projection to decline. Credit Suisse: We expect the Fed to keep the fed funds rate unchanged and to begin reducing the size of their balance sheet. We expect an announcement in line with their June policy normalization plan which stated that reinvestments are ended up to a gradually-increasing cap. The caps are likely to begin at a modest $10bn per month, but are scheduled to rise every quarter before levelling off at $50bn. Aside from the balance sheet reduction, we expect a dovish tone from the September meeting. Goldman Sachs: We expect the FOMC to officially announce next week that balance sheet runoff will begin in October. As the Fed has already communicated extensively about its plan for a gradual and predictable runoff, we expect markets to focus instead on the outlook for the federal funds rate. The key question is whether the committee’s expectations for the federal funds rate have declined in light of the surprising deceleration in the inflation data since the start of the year. Several Fed officials have expressed reduced confidence in the view that the recent decline is a blip and that inflation will reaccelerate. Despite this week’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, Fed officials will still be looking at year-over-year core PCE and CPI inflation rates that are three tenths and five tenths lower, respectively, than in March. We therefore look for lower core inflation in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and expect the “dot plot” to show a decline in the average projected funds rate path. While risks are tilted to the downside, we still expect the median projection to continue to show a third rate hike this year, 3 hikes in 2018 and a longer-run funds rate at 3%. Ultimately, there are three reasons why we expect only minor dovish changes. First, several influential FOMC members have highlighted that there is not yet enough data in hand to abandon the view that the economy is close to full employment and that diminishing spare capacity will gradually push inflation back up to the target. Second, growth momentum has remained very firm and while hurricanes will make the activity data noisier in the near term, they are unlikely to derail firm underlying trend growth. Third, financial conditions have continued to ease even as the FOMC moved to a path of quarterly tightening last December. ING: We think this may be one of the more difficult meetings and press conferences for Chair Yellen to navigate, not least because of the growing dichotomy within the FOMC over the appropriate near-term policy approach. Our base case is for the doves to prevail, with a lower conviction over the pace and extent of future policy tightening visible in the Fed's dot plot. While the median 2017 dot is still set to tentatively pencil in a Dec rate hike, we expect to see more members calling for a pause for the remainder of the year; anything more than five would suggest that hopes of a Dec hike stand on a fragile footing. More telling of a dovish shift would be if the 2018 dot also moves lower; here we require five or more members to downgrade their views over future policy hikes, a scenario that cannot be ruled out given the softer US inflation dynamics. What is highly likely is that we'll see the 2019 and longer-run dots moving lower – with Fed officials acknowledging that a 2% handle for the terminal Fed funds rate is more realistic in the prevailing US economic environment. Morgan Stanley: Our US economists expect the Fed to announce balance sheet normalization at its September meeting. They also expect the median dots to remain as they were in June, with the Fed adding a final rate hike in 2020 (see FOMC Preview: Auto Pilot). In our view, the risks to this outcome are that the 2018 median dot falls to 1.875% from 2.125% and the longer-run median dot falls to 2.75% from 3.00%. To assess the risks, we constructed the September 2017 dot-plot scenario in Exhibit 4. First, we attempted to match up dots in 2017 with dots in 2018. This allows us to create the following scenarios we felt were reasonable. We assume: 2 more FOMC participants pencil in no further hikes in 2017 and decrease the # of subsequent hikes in 2018 to 2from 3; 2 participants keep the third hike in 2017, but decrease the # of subsequent hikes in 2018 to 2 from 3;and 2 participants decrease the # of hikes in 2017 to 3 from 4, but keep 4 hikes in 2018. Given we assumed only 2 more participants join the "no more hikes in 2017" camp, the 2017 median dot remains at 1.375%. However, given our other assumptions, half of the Committee ends up with a 2018 dot below 2.00% and half ends up with a dot above 2.00% – leaving the median between 1.875 and 2.125% versus its 2.125% position in June. It is possible that Randal Quarles is confirmed by the Senate and sworn in before the meeting, thereby allowing a 17th dot to be added. But, at this point, the Senate has not scheduled his confirmation hearing. As a result of our scenario analysis, we think there is a reasonable risk that the 2018 median dot falls by 25bp,even though it's not our base case.
После нескольких лет утверждений о том, что инфляционные ожидания стабильны и прочно заякорены, представители ФРС начинают осознавать небольшое, но тревожное смягчение в прогнозах потребителей, бизнеса и инвесторов по ценам, пишет Bloomberg.
После нескольких лет утверждений о том, что инфляционные ожидания стабильны и прочно заякорены, представители ФРС начинают осознавать небольшое, но тревожное смягчение в прогнозах потребителей, бизнеса и инвесторов по ценам, пишет Bloomberg.
Бывший председатель Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) США Алан Гринспен признал, что терпение иногда является лучшей политикой, чем превентивное изменение процентных ставок, потому что "будущее порой может быть слишком непрозрачным", пишет Bloomberg.
В руководстве Федеральной резервной системы рассматривают возможность использования отрицательных процентных ставок, в случае если американская экономика вновь столкнется с серьезным кризисом.