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07 декабря, 09:50

Дадли: ставка ФРС будет скоро повышена

Аргументы в пользу повышения процентной ставки стали более убедительными для ФРС. Такое заявление сделал президент Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.

07 декабря, 09:50

Дадли: ставка ФРС будет скоро повышена

Аргументы в пользу повышения процентной ставки стали более убедительными для ФРС. Такое заявление сделал президент Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.

06 декабря, 18:30

Stock Market News for December 06, 2016

Benchmarks started the week on a higher note with the Dow finishing at another all-time record high after concerns regarding Italian referendum were offset by solid domestic economic data.

06 декабря, 15:42

Диапазон 2190 - 2213 пунктов по S&P500 не будет преодолен до следующей среды

Американские индексы уверенно стартовали в начале торгов в понедельник и продержались в "зеленой" зоне до самого закрытия (S&P500: +0,58%). Данные по активности в секторе услуг США подтвердили предположения об усилении национальной экономики. Наибольший рост продемонстрировали акции компаний финансового и технологического секторов. Dow установил свежий рекорд. Доллар заметно снизился по отношению к евро, EUR/USD: +1,95% (1,0757). Цена на нефть марки Brent на торгах в Лондоне в понедельник впервые за 16 месяцев преодолела отметку в $55 за баррель на фоне заключенной на прошлой неделе ОПЕК сделки по снижению объемов добычи "черного золота" на 1,2 млн баррелей в сутки. С момента заключения соглашения 30 ноября Brent прибавил уже 19%. Энергетический сектор в последние две недели является одним из лидеров роста. ФРС сейчас находится недалеко от достижения своих макроэкономических целей, заявил президент Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.

06 декабря, 14:36

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Dips; US Stock Futures And Dollar Flat

European and Asian markets rose, while U.S. index futures were little changed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average pushing for yet another record, as traders digested the Italian referendum news, await the ECB's Thursday announcement and reflect in a notably quieter overnight session.  Oil slipped from a 16-month high after 4 straight days of gains, as doubts emerged about how OPEC will implement the first supply curbs in eight years. European bonds gained with stocks. The euro held firm on Tuesday, having seen a wild 3-cent swing in the wake of Italy's referendum, while the region's bond yields dipped in line with U.S. peers as oil saw its first fall for five days. Asian stocks saw their strongest day for 2 weeks overnight after Wall Street's Dow Jones index hit a record high, and Europe's main bourses struggled into positive territory as bumper German data helped settle an early wobble. As concerns about Italy subsided for the time being, Italian bond yields were back below levels seen before Sunday's referendum defeat for the government, while the euro held at $1.0767 having bounced strongly from as low as $1.0505 on Monday, two days ahead of an ECB decision in which Mario Draghi is expected to extend QE by 6 months with little other adjustments.  "The referendum result could put the ECB under pressure not to taper the asset purchase program but to extend it for six months beyond March (in its current form)," ING strategist Benjamin Schroeder said. European shares rose on news that German industrial orders soared at the fastest pace for more than two years, stoking hopes that Europe's largest economy is set for an acceleration in the coming months.  Factories saw demand climb 4.9 percent on the month despite bulk orders being lower than usual, the German economy ministry said. That was the biggest increase since July 2014 and far above the Reuters consensus forecast for a 0.6 percent rise.  "The reading was very strong even without large-scale orders and that suggests it's more than just a flash in the pan," BayernLB economist Stefan Kipar said, noting that some firms might have brought orders forward. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 0.3%, adding to its 0.6% advance from Monday. Italy’s FTSE MIB Index gained ground, up 1.3%, helped by gains of more than 3 percent each by UniCredit SpA and Mediobanca SpA. Stoxx 600 energy producers tracked declines in oil prices, which retreated from the highest close in 16 months. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index jumped 0.9 percent.  Financial shares in China weakened again, however, after the country's insurance regulator suspended an unlisted firm from selling some products a day after a warning about "barbaric" share acquisitions by asset managers. In emerging markets, Turkey, where the lira has slumped to record lows in recent weeks, saw a warning from the head of the central bank that the weakness could cause the bank to miss its inflation targets early next year. In Asia, gold nudged off a 10-month low. MSCI's broadest index for the region bounced 0.7 percent, its biggest daily rise since Nov. 22, as Korea climbed 1.4 percent and Japan rose 0.4 percent. The Australian dollar led declines among major economies, falling 0.5 percent to 74.38 U.S. cents, after the nation’s central bank central bank kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In an otherwise quiet session, where E-minis are currently unchanged before Tuesday’s release of factory and durable goods orders, which may confirm the U.S. economy is gaining strength and giving the Federal Reserve more reason to raise interest rates, and after the Dow Average swung back to gains Monday, increasing 0.2 percent to an all-time high, early trader focus was on crude. Ending a 4-day winning streak, oil prices slipped on Tuesday as crude output rose in virtually every major export region despite plans by OPEC and Russia to cut production, triggering fears that a fuel glut that has dogged markets for over two years might last well into 2017. Brent futures were trading at $54.64 per barrel at 0935 GMT, down 30 cents from Monday's close; WTI was at $51.39 a barrel, down 40 cents. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters said the boost from last week's decision by OPEC to cut crude production had faded and the cartel's promise had been undermined by data showing rising production from within its member countries and Russia. "Most of the position adjustments that the OPEC decision forced upon traders have now run their course and it leaves the market exposed to profit taking," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, citing surveys pointing to record production from OPEC during November. "What's troubling is that the rise is coming from African producers, two of which are exempt from cutting production," he said. "The meeting on Saturday between OPEC and non-OPEC producers will be crucial in order to maintain the bullish sentiment seen since last Wednesday." OPEC's oil output set another record high in November, rising to 34.19 million barrels per day (bpd) from 33.82 million bpd in October, according to a Reuters survey based on shipping data and information from industry sources. “It’s a headache for OPEC in terms of increase in production for Libya and Nigeria, definitely that’s a tricky part,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Markets. “A lot of buying went on following the OPEC decision and now it’s sort of taking it quietly.” In rates, Italy’s 10-year bond yield declined six basis points to 1.93 percent, almost erasing Monday’s increase of eight basis points. Yields on Portugal’s bonds with a similar due date decreased nine basis points to 3.61 percent, while Germany’s rose one basis point to 0.34 percent. Almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the ECB to announce on Thursday that its bond-buying program will be extended after March, and most foresee an extension of about six months at the current 80 billion euros ($85 billion) a month. Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 2.39%. * * * Bulletin Market Summary From RanSquawk European indices are mixed this morning with more news filtering through from the Italian banking sector A much calmer FX market today, but we continue to see Cable pushing higher, with a view to challenging the post Brexit lows seen just under 1.2800 Looking ahead, highlights include US Factory Orders and API Crude Oil Inventories Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2205.5 Stoxx 600 up 0.3% to 342 FTSE 100 down less than 0.1% to 6742 DAX up 0.1% to 10698 German 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 0.34% Italian 10Yr yield down 7bps to 1.92% Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.5% S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 389.6 MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.8% to 136 Nikkei 225 up 0.5% to 18361 Hang Seng up 0.8% to 22675 Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3200 S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5429 US 10-yr yield down 1bp to 2.38% Dollar Index unchanged at 100.09 WTI Crude futures down 0.4% to $51.59 Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $54.91 Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,172 Silver spot up 0.4% to $16.82 Top Headlines: Sanofi Said to Mull Counterbid for Actelion Amid J&J Talks: French drugmaker said to work with advisers to weigh options Utilities Entitled to Damages for Germany’s Atomic Exit: German constitutional court issues ruling in landmark case Total, ExxonMobil, Cnooc, Pemex Win Mexico Deep-Water Blocks: Oil majors win blocks in Mexico’s first competitive deep-water oil auction Drugmaker Genfit Said to Explore Options Including a Sale: NASH treatment maker said in talks with other drug companies SoftBank’s Son Said to Plan Meeting With Trump in New York: Japanese tech company had sought to merge Sprint and T- Mobile Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Hike See Path Tied to Fiscal Policies: Fed presidents from New York, Chicago, St. Louis spoke Monday, indicating Fed is close to meeting inflation, job goals South Africa to Allow U.S. GM Corn Imports for First Time: Import clearance comes after worst drought since records began South Korea’s Park Is Willing to Resign in April, Party Says: Opposition lawmakers still pressing for Park’s impeachment United Technologies CEO Says Government Ties Affected Trump Deal: Regulatory, tax reform would benefit company, CEO Hayes says Lookinag at Asian markets, stocks carried on the momentum from Wall St where Dow posted fresh record highs amid strength in tech and financials, while contagion fears in Europe had also dissipated. ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded higher and was led higher by the materials and mining sectors, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) was underpinned by financials. Chinese markets were mixed with Hang Seng (+0.8%) outperforming, while Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) lagged following a weak liquidity operation by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded lower amid the heightened risk appetite in the region, with demand also dampened following an enhanced liquidity auction for 20yr, 30yr and 40yr JGBs which drew a lower b/c and wider spreads. RBA kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 1.50% as unanimously expected and stated that maintaining policy is consistent with sustainable economic growth and achieving the inflation target over time. RBA commented that the economy is continuing its transition from the mining investment boom and that some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again. Top Asian News Singapore and Australia Margin Rules to Start in March 2017: Australia has six-month transition period for variation margin ICAP Showing Yuan Tumbling 8.8% Against Dollar Fuels Jitters: CFETS data show onshore spot rate rose amid weakening dollar Samsung’s Lee in Crosshairs as Tycoons Grilled Over Scandal: Tycoons testify in connection with influence-peddling case China’s Robot Boom Raises Yaskawa’s Prospects and Profile: Yaskawa President says he’s rejected several deal offers RBA Holds Key Rate as Commodity Upswing Outweighs Slowdown: Annual growth figures predicted to slow in 3Q Half-Point India Rate Cut Seen by Economist Amid Cash Chaos: Call by IIFL’s Datar is more aggressive than consensus outlook In Europe, indices are slightly higher this morning (EUROSTOXX 50 +0.2%) with more news filtering through from the Italian banking sector, as sources suggest that Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) (-2.2%) board meeting is said to be delayed until Wednesday Or Thursday. Elsewhere, financials are bouncing back after losses seen yesterday, but this did coincide with broker upgrades for HSBC and SocGen. Also in equity markets spreadbetters are taking a hit (IG Group -30%) after FCA look to announce new rules for CFD trading accounts including increased margins and amendments to new customer bonus rules.In fixed income markets, Bunds trade largely flat this morning as participants await the ECB meeting. Today we have also seen outperformance in peripheral yields and some narrowing of the German/French spread following reports of more French government stability as Bernard Cazeneuve named is French PM. Top European News EU Said to Mull Seeking Post-Brexit Deal Before Transition Talk: Consensus forming on bloc’s Brexit position, EU officials say ABN Amro to Sell $20 Billion of Private Banking Assets to LGT: ABN Amro agreed to sell its private-banking assets in Asia and the Middle East to Liechtenstein-based LGT to focus on its European operations Monte Paschi Recapitalization Hangs in Balance After Debt Swap: Troubled lender releases final results of debt conversion, set to decide in coming days whether to proceed with plan In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed after falling 0.4 percent Monday. The euro traded at $1.0773 after ending Monday up 0.9 percent, erasing an earlier slide of as much as 1.5 percent in the wake of the Italian vote. The Australian dollar led declines among major economies, falling 0.5 percent to 74.38 U.S. cents, after the nation’s central bank central bank kept interest rates unchanged and Governor Philip Lowe said “some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely.” In commodities, oil prices slipped on Tuesday as crude output rose in virtually every major export region despite plans by OPEC and Russia to cut production, triggering fears that a fuel glut that has dogged markets for over two years might last well into 2017. Brent futures were trading at $54.64 per barrel at 0935 GMT, down 30 cents from Monday's close; WTI was at $51.39 a barrel, down 40 cents. Traders and analysts cited by Reuters said the boost from last week's decision by OPEC to cut crude production had faded and the cartel's promise had been undermined by data showing rising production from within its member countries and Russia. "Most of the position adjustments that the OPEC decision forced upon traders have now run their course and it leaves the market exposed to profit taking," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank, citing surveys pointing to record production from OPEC during November. "What's troubling is that the rise is coming from African producers, two of which are exempt from cutting production," he said. Aluminum fell 1.2 percent to $1,713 a metric ton, the biggest drop in a week. The metal will probably tumble next month as an “irrational” increase in prices prompts companies to restart plants, while new capacity also ramps up in the world’s largest supplier, according to China’s top metals industry group. Copper lost 1.4 percent and zinc slid 0.7 percent. Looking at the day ahead, the early data out this morning in Europe came from Germany where the October factory orders data was released, and came in an unexpectedly hot 6.3% Y/Y vs Exp. 1.6%, up from 2.9%. The final revisionsto Q3 GDP in the Euro area also came in and as expected, it remained at +0.3% qoq. In the US we’ll get the October trade balance reading, with the final Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data also scheduled for release. Factory orders data for the month of October is also due along with this month’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index reading. Lastly, final durable and capital goods orders revisions for October will be released. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Trade Balance, Oct., est. -$42.0b (prior -$36.4b) 8:30am: Non-farm Productivity, 3Q F, est. 3.3% (prior 3.1%) 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales 10am: Factory Orders, Oct., est. 2.6% (prior 0.3%) ; Durable Goods Orders, Oct. F, est. 3.4% (prior 4.8%); Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Aircraft, Oct F (prior 0.4%) 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Dec. (est. 51.4) 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Had you known in advance the outcomes of all the three big events of the year (Brexit, US elections and the Italian referendum) would it have helped you make money? It's not obvious that it would, especially if your timing was slightly off. Clearly there are some assets where the impact would have been fairly obvious but the wider markets have been more difficult to second guess. For us the Italy 'no' result was relatively well priced in given the likely immediate ramifications but we still would have expected the jitters for longer than the 2 minutes the European markets took to bottom out yesterday morning. With Italy it's still possible that post the rejection everything stays similar in the government apart from PM Renzi who as we know tendered his resignation yesterday. So the market is giving Italy the benefit of the doubt for now even if there was some underperformance of Italian risk yesterday. Indeed the FTSE MIB initially dropped -2.20% at the open but that fall proved short lived with the index then rebounding and peaking a shade above +1.50% a short time later. Thereafter, the index swung in and out of positive and negative territory before finishing the day down a modest -0.21%. That was in the context of a +0.56% gain for the Stoxx 600 and an impressive +1.63% jump for the DAX. Unsurprisingly much of the focus was on how banks would fare. While the Stoxx 600 banks index closed up a fairly resilient +0.76% there were notable heavy falls for the likes of Banco Popolare di Milano (-7.91%), Banco Popolare (-7.44%), Mediobanca (-4.24%) and Unicredit (-3.36%) as the market questioned the likelihood of some of the ongoing bank recapitalisation plans going ahead.It was a similar story in credit markets although the underperformance of financials generally was more obvious. The iTraxx Main index ended the day little changed but did wipe out an early 3bp move wider, while the iTraxx Crossover index finished 5bps tighter. Senior financials did end 3bps wider however while subordinated financials were over 6bps wider by the end of play. Of the four Italian banks within the latter index, Mediobanca spreads were 3bps wider while spreads for Intesa Sanpaolo, Generali and Unicredit were 8bps to 10bps wider. So some underperformance but as we mentioned at the top perhaps some signs that the market is giving Italy the benefit of the doubt for now. Over in sovereign bond markets 10y BTP yields finished the day 8.3bps higher at 1.981% which compares to a 5.0bp move higher for similar maturity Bund yields. The remainder of the periphery was actually little changed. Elsewhere the Euro traded in a near 3% range. After tumbling as much as -1.50% early in the Asia session it then rallied as Europe kicked into gear and actually closed up +0.94% on the day. The US session was for the most part a reflection of the reasonably positive sentiment. The S&P 500 closed up +0.58% and 10y Treasury yields ended a modest 1bp higher at a shade below 2.400%.While we expect the political situation to move fairly swiftly it’s still worth considering the medium-term consequences for Italy in the wake of the result. In his note following the result yesterday, DB’s Marco Stringa made the important reminder that the referendum was a catalyst rather than the cause of Italy’s complex situation. The complexity is due to disappointing growth, concerns about the banking system and the rise of populist and euro-sceptic parties. At least initially, Marco does not expect to revise down GDP projections as the "No" outcome was his central case scenario. The likelihood of a systemic solution for the NPL issue will influence the medium-term evolution of the Italian banking sector and banks' ability to support investment growth. Marco expects no pro-active systemic solution for the banking sector before the next election. He also expects a new electoral law for both Houses of the Parliament. In his opinion, it is important that a compromise on a new electoral law does not lead to a system that encourages the formation of governments supported by overly heterogeneous coalitions. Politics was the overwhelmingly dominating theme throughout yesterday. Along with digesting the Italian referendum outcome, there was also some focus on a Sunday Times article confirming the UK Government’s plans to potentially pay into the EU budget for access to the single market, something which PM May is calling a ‘grey Brexit’, i.e. in between the black and white demands of leave and remain hardliners. So further evidence that the UK government is becoming increasingly pragmatic from the early hard line stance. As a reminder the Supreme Court hearing continues today. Elsewhere, news also tricked in late in the day that Eurozone finance ministers had agreed to provide short term debt relief measures for Greece prepared by the European Stability Mechanism, although they seemingly failed to form a consensus on a broader accord for various reform targets and measures. Significantly, the participation of the IMF in the bailout program appears to still be up in the air with talks breaking up last night over splits in the various reform targets. According to the FT, Eurogroup President, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, confirmed that getting the IMF on board by the end of the year is unlikely and that instead talks will continue into the New Year. Meanwhile over in France, the latest update there is that Prime Minister Manuel Valls has declared that he will run for presidency as had been somewhat expected following the news that Hollande had ruled himself out of contention. Refreshing our screens this morning it’s been a broadly positive session in Asia this morning. Markets have largely followed the lead from the moves in Europe and on Wall Street last night with the Nikkei (+0.53%), Hang Seng (+0.86%), Shanghai Comp (+0.08%), Kospi (+1.32%) and ASX (+0.81%) all edging higher. EM currencies are also generally a touch stronger, while the Aussie Dollar has weakened modestly (about -0.17% as type) after the RBA left rates on hold as expected. Moving on. As far as the economic data was concerned yesterday, it was on the whole relatively positive. The primary focus in the US was on the November ISM non-manufacturing print which was reported as rising 2.4pts to 57.2 and well exceeding expectations for a rise to 55.5. That is in fact the best reading since October 2015 and whilst the details revealed a modest decline in new orders (by 0.7pts to 57.0) there were gains across components of business activity, employment and new export orders. It was noted that the employment component in particular, which came in at 58.2, is the 5th largest print since the start of the series in 1997. Meanwhile, the final services PMI reading for November was revised down a modest 0.1pts to 54.6 which puts the composite at 54.9 and unchanged versus October. Lastly the labour market conditions index for November was reported as rising by 1.5pts in November which is the best monthly gain since July. In Europe the data was focused on the final November PMI readings. There was a bit of disappointment in the final services revision for the Euro area which was revised down from 54.1 to 53.8 largely as a result of a 1pt downward revision in France to 51.6. Putting it in context however that reading for the Euro area is still the highest this year while the composite level of 53.9 is also the highest in 2016. The most interesting takeaway was the data for the non-core and specifically Italy where the services reading printed at a bumper 53.3 (vs. 51.6 expected), up 2.3pts from October and the highest level since February. Our European economists highlighted that, should the data for the Euro area remain unchanged in December, then the composite PMI would point to GDP growth of +0.4% qoq in Q4 and so represents some upside to their current estimate. Before we look at today’s calendar, yesterday also marked the last day for Fedspeak prior the blackout period kicking in, although again there was little new that could move the dial. NY Fed President William Dudley opined that ‘it is important that fiscal and monetary policy are well aligned going forward’ and that ‘there appears to be few imbalances in the economy that could lead to the current expansion ending’. Perhaps more interestingly, Dudley acknowledged the recent tightening in financial conditions but also suggested that that he does not see this as prompting great concern and instead said that it seems broadly consistent given that it’s being driven by a greater likelihood of stronger near-term aggregate demand and less downside risk to the growth outlook. Meanwhile Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the Fed needs to be patient to ‘see what fiscal program emerges’ but that he see’s every reason to think that the economy is to ‘stay strong for the next few years given Trump administration’s planned policies’. Looking at the day ahead, the early data out this morning in Europe comes from Germany where the October factory orders data will be released. Later this morning we’ll get the final revisions to Q3 GDP in the Euro area along with the growth components. No change from the +0.3% qoq flash print is expected. This afternoon in the US we’ll firstly get the October trade balance reading, with the final Q3 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs data also scheduled for release. Factory orders data for the month of October is also due along with this month’s IBD/TIPP economic optimism index reading. Lastly, final durable and capital goods orders revisions for October will be released.

06 декабря, 11:35

Диапазон 2190 - 2213 пунктов по S&P500 не будет преодолен до следующей среды

Американские индексы уверенно стартовали в начале торгов в понедельник и продержались в "зеленой" зоне до самого закрытия (S&P500: +0,58%). Данные по активности в секторе услуг США подтвердили предположения об усилении национальной экономики. Наибольший рост продемонстрировали акции компаний финансового и технологического секторов. Dow установил свежий рекорд. Доллар заметно снизился по отношению к евро, EUR/USD: +1,95% (1,0757). Цена на нефть марки Brent на торгах в Лондоне в понедельник впервые за 16 месяцев преодолела отметку в $55 за баррель на фоне заключенной на прошлой неделе ОПЕК сделки по снижению объемов добычи "черного золота" на 1,2 млн баррелей в сутки. С момента заключения соглашения 30 ноября Brent прибавил уже 19%. Энергетический сектор в последние две недели является одним из лидеров роста. ФРС сейчас находится недалеко от достижения своих макроэкономических целей, заявил президент Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.

06 декабря, 11:06

Links for 12-06-16

To Repeat: Medicare Isn’t Going “Bankrupt” - CBPP The U.S. Is a Low-Tax Nation - Justin Fox The Road Forward on Climate - Al Gore It’s Time for a Reset - Larry Summers The Future is Uncertain, but So Is...

05 декабря, 18:30

Дадли из ФРС выступает за постепенное повышение ставок

Уильям Дадли, член ФРС, отметил, что выступает за постепенное повышение ставок, если рост сохранится на текущих уровнях.Источник: FxTeam

05 декабря, 18:04

Фондовые индексы США растут в понедельник, Dow Jones опять обновляет рекорды

Американские фондовые индексы поднимаются в начале торгов в понедельник, причем индекс Dow Jones Industrial Average в очередной раз обновляет рекордные максимумы.

05 декабря, 16:43

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which already appears to have been largely digested by the market, despite a variety of unknown consequences still to emerge. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting. As BofA notes, Mario Draghi's interview in El Pais on the last day before the ECB starts its pre-meeting "quiet period" sets the landscape quite clearly. The decisions will come next week (in direct contrast with those who advocated waiting until January), tapering "proper" (i.e., winding down the programme) is not on the table, and the discussion on QE ultimately boils down to either continuing with the current pace of buying of EUR80bn for a relatively short period of time, or reducing the pace but buying for a longer period of time. Draghi did not hint at any personal preference there. It seems that both options would be consistent with "preserving the very substantial degree of monetary accommodation" that is needed. BofA, as well as Goldman and many other banks, expect Draghi to continue monetizing debt at a pace of €80bn per month until Sept. 2017 at the earliest, with flexibility on the capital key and moving the issue limit on non-CAC bonds. Back to key economic events, the breakdown is as follows: In the US we have ISM survey, trade balance, durable goods, wholesale inventories and U.Michigan index. Fed speakers currently on schedule are concentrated on Monday. In the Eurozone, beyond the Italian referendum result and the ECB important releases include Eurozone PMIs (Final), October retail sales and 3Q GDP (Final). In the UK, the main releases are PMIs, industrial production, trade balance and housing. We also highlight the court hearings concerning government’s appeal against A50 ruling. In Australia, the focus is on the RBA meeting as well as on the economic releases including trade balance, GDP and foreign reserves. In Japan, we await releases on PMIs, GDP, trade balance and money supply. In China, the main releases are trade balance and inflation. * * * A quick look at the global week ahead on a daily basis: This morning in Europe we’re kicking off the week with the remainder of the November PMI’s which includes the final services and composite revisions for the Euro area, Germany and France, as well as a first look at the data for the UK and non-core. Euro area retail sales data for the month of October is also out today. In the US we’ll get the remaining PMI’s as well as the ISM non-manufacturing print for November and labour market conditions index. Tuesday kicks off in Germany with the latest factory orders data before we then get the final Q3 GDP reading for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the October trade balance reading, Q3 unit labour costs and nonfarm productivity, October factory orders, December IBD/TIPP economic optimism reading and the final durable and capital goods orders revisions. Germany gets things going again on Wednesday when we’ll get the latest industrial production report. French trade data and UK industrial and manufacturing production will also be released. The only data due out in the US on Wednesday is JOLTS job openings and consumer credit for October. China will also release November foreign reserves data at some stage. The early data to get things going on Thursday comes from Japan where the final Q3 GDP reading will be released. China will then be following with important November trade data. There’s no data in Europe on Thursday but all eyes will be on the main event of the week, the ECB policy meeting outcome just after midday. The only data out of the US on Thursday will be initial jobless claims. We close out the week in Asia on Friday with the November CPI and PPI prints in China. In Europe we’ll get trade data in Germany, industrial production data in France and trade data in the UK. Over in the US we’ll get the final October wholesale inventories report along with a first look at the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. Away from the data the Fedspeak this week all comes today with Dudley, Evans and Bullard scheduled. * * * Finally, here is a full summary of key US events, together with consensus and estimates from Goldman Sachs Monday, December 5 08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Association for a Better New York. 09:11 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the Executives’ Club of Chicago’s CEO Breakfast. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Services PMI, November final (consensus 54.7, last 54.7) 10:00 AM Labor market conditions index, November (consensus -0.2, last +0.7) 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing, November (GS 55.0, consensus 55.5, last 54.8): We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to edge up to 55.0 in the November report, up from 54.8. While non-manufacturing surveys were mixed at the headline level, underlying details from the reports suggest that business activity improved modestly on net in November. The Dallas Fed (+9.6pt to +12.6) and the New York Fed (+6.4pt to -6.8, not seasonally adjusted) service sector surveys both strengthened, while the Philly Fed (-10.7pt to +10.6) and Richmond Fed (-4pt to +3) surveys softened. The Markit Services PMI also ticked down in November. Our non-manufacturing tracker stands at 53.3 for November, from 52.9 in October. 02:05 PM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the W.P. Carey School of Business’ Economic Forecast luncheon at Arizona State University. Media Q&A is expected. Tuesday, December 6 08:30 AM Trade balance, October (GS -$41.1bn, consensus -$42.0bn, last -$36.4bn): We expect the trade balance to widen in October to -$41.1bn. The Census Bureau’s new Advance Economic Indicators report showed a larger than anticipated trade deficit in October. 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 final (GS +3.4%, consensus +3.3%, last +3.1%): Unit labor costs (qoq), Q3 final (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%): We expect Q3 nonfarm productivity to be revised up to +3.4% (qoq ar) from 3.1%, primarily reflecting upward revisions to output. Unit labor costs are likely to be revised up to 0.8%. 10:00 AM Factory orders, October (GS +2.9%, consensus +2.5%, last +0.3%): Factory orders likely moved up in October, following last week’s durable goods report which showed new durable goods orders were firmer than expected. 10:00 AM Durable goods orders, October final (consensus +4.8%, last +4.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, October final (last +1.0%); Core capital goods orders, October final (last +0.4%); Core capital goods shipments, October final (last +0.2%) Wednesday, December 7 10:00 AM JOLTS job openings, October (consensus 5,445, last 5,486): Consensus expects job openings to edge down in October following a slight gain in the September report. The layoff and discharge rate moved down to an all-time low for the series. 03:00 PM Consumer credit, October (consensus $18.5bn, last $19.3bn) Thursday, December 8 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended December 3 (GS 260k, consensus 255k, last 268k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 26 (consensus 2,048k, last 2,081k): We expect initial jobless claims to decrease to 260k from 268k last week. Last week, initial claims rose more than expected, most likely due to temporary volatility resulting from the Thanksgiving holiday during the reference week. Friday, December 9 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, October final (consensus -0.4%, last -0.4%) 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, December preliminary (GS 94.5, consensus 94.4, last 93.8): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to increase further to 94.5 in the December preliminary estimate, following an improvement in the November report. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to a new cyclical high in the December report. Source: BofA, Goldman, DB

29 ноября, 14:31

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация двух важных показателей

Во вторник, 29 ноября, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация двух важных макроэкономических показателей. Так, в 16:30 МСК выйдут пересмотренные данные по ВВП за третий квартал. Согласно нашим ожиданиям, ВВП в рассматриваемом периоде вырос на 3,0% к/к по сравнению с предварительной оценкой повышения на 2,9% к/к. В 18:00 МСК станет известно ноябрьское значение индекса потребительского доверия. Мы ожидаем, что показатель составит 101,2 пункта по сравнению с 98,6 пункта в октябре. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить ценовой индекс потребления и прибыль корпораций за третий квартал, а также индекс сопоставимых продаж крупнейших розничных сетей (Красная книга) и сентябрьское значение индекса цен на жилье S&P Case-Shiller в 20 столичных регионах. Кроме того, в 17:15 МСК выступит президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли. В календаре корпоративных отчетностей значатся компании Tiffany & Co.

29 ноября, 11:02

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 10:00 GMT Италия проведет размещение 10-летних бондов В 14:15 GMT Член FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью В 17:40 GMT Член FOMC Джером Пауэлл выступит с речью В 20:00 GMT Отчет о финансовой стабильности РБНЗИсточник: FxTeam

29 ноября, 09:02

Сегодня в США ожидается публикация двух важных показателей

Во вторник, 29 ноября, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация двух важных макроэкономических показателей. Так, в 16:30 МСК выйдут пересмотренные данные по ВВП за третий квартал. Согласно нашим ожиданиям, ВВП в рассматриваемом периоде вырос на 3,0% к/к по сравнению с предварительной оценкой повышения на 2,9% к/к. В 18:00 МСК станет известно ноябрьское значение индекса потребительского доверия. Мы ожидаем, что показатель составит 101,2 пункта по сравнению с 98,6 пункта в октябре. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить ценовой индекс потребления и прибыль корпораций за третий квартал, а также индекс сопоставимых продаж крупнейших розничных сетей (Красная книга) и сентябрьское значение индекса цен на жилье S&P Case-Shiller в 20 столичных регионах. Кроме того, в 17:15 МСК выступит президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли. В календаре корпоративных отчетностей значатся компании Tiffany & Co.

28 ноября, 17:25

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday. Perhaps the most important geopolitical event with material consequences for global markets, will be the OPEC meeting on Wednesday, when the cartel is expected to announce production cuts. While doubts have crept up that OPEC can swing a deal, Bank of America and others, is confident that OPEC will go with a 500 thousand b/d or 1 million b/d supply cut announcement. Should OPEC just deliver a half a million barrel deal, the banks sees prices staying around the current levels. For prices to firmly break over $50/bbl, OPEC would have to deliver a 1 mn b/d cut announcement. If the cut comes with firm quotas and a tight control mechanism, WTI prices could average $59/bbl. A looser agreement that does not incorporate detailed country quotas would probably shave $5 off this number. The most consequential event for the US economy will be this Friday's payrolls report, the last one before the Fed's December decision which the market is now certain will be a rate hike. In the Eurozone, we get inflation data and final prints of consumer confidence index and PMI (manufacturing). In the UK, data releases include mortgage approvals, M4 money supply and PMIs. In Australia, building approvals, private sector credit, private capital expenditure and retail sales are in focus. In Japan, we get labor data, retail sales, industrial production and capital spending. In Canada, GDP and labor data are the only releases of note. * * * Main global events broken down by day, courtesy of DB: In Europe we’ll get the latest M3 money supply data for the Euro along with the latest OECD economic outlook while in the US the sole release is the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey. Tuesday kicks off early in Japan with the latest jobless rate, retail sales and household spending data. Closer to home we’ll get Q3 GDP in France, Germany CPI for November, UK money and credit aggregates data and also the latest confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the US tomorrow all eyes are on the second revision to Q3 GDP while the November consumer confidence print is also due out, along with the latest S&P/Case-Shiller house price index. We start in Japan again on Wednesday where the latest industrial production data is due, along with housing starts data. China will also release the MNI consumer sentiment reading while the UK will release its latest consumer confidence print. During the European session we’ll get the latest CPI print out of France and also the Euro area, along with unemployment data in Germany. There’s important data in the US on Wednesday too with the ADP employment change print, personal income and spending reports for October and also the PCE core and deflator readings for last month too. Pending home sales data and the Chicago PMI will also be released followed by the Fed’s Beige Book in the evening. Turning to Thursday, China will get things going with the November PMI data, while during the European session we’ll also get the manufacturing PMI’s including a first look at the data for the UK and the periphery. In the US it’s another busy session with initial jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and vehicles sales data all due out. It’s a quiet end to the week in Asia and Europe on Friday with PPI data for the Euro area the sole release. In the US it’s all eyes on the November employment report including the latest payrolls print. Away from the data, in terms of Fedspeak this week we’ve got Dudley and Powell due to speak tomorrow, Kaplan and Powell on Wednesday, Kaplan again on Thursday and Brainard on Friday. In Europe today we’ll hear from ECB President Draghi this afternoon at European Parliament, while Coeure will also speak before him. Draghi will then speak again on Wednesday. The BoE will also publish its Financial Stability Report on Wednesday with BoE Governor Carney due to speak after. The other big event this week and which may end up being the focus for the week is the aforementioned OPEC meeting in Vienna on Wednesday where ministers are due to discuss finalizing the September accord to curb oil production. * * * Focusing just on the US, here is the full breakdown of main events by day - together with consensus estiamtes - from Goldman: Monday, November 28 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, November (consensus +1.0, last -1.5) Tuesday, November 29 07:45 AM Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give a speech to The Clearing House annual conference, in New York. 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q3 (GS +3.0%, consensus +3.0%, last +2.9%); Personal consumption, Q3 (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.3%, last +2.1%); Consensus expects GDP and personal consumption to be revised up to 3.0% and 2.3% in Q3, respectively. 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, September (consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%): The Case-Shiller home price index appears to have been influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges recently. Consensus expects a 0.4% increase after the index rose 0.2% in August. Over the past year, the 20-city index has increased by 5.1%. 09:15 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley will give a speech on opportunities for economic growth in Puerto Rico. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, November (GS 101.5, consensus 101.3, last 98.6): We expect consumer confidence to rise in November after the index declined by more than expected in October, reversing recent gains in prior months. US equity prices moved higher and the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment improved notably in November. 12:40 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Indiana’s luncheon in Indianapolis. Wednesday, November 30 08:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan will give a speech on the economic conditions and the limitations of monetary policy at a breakfast sponsored by the Economic Club of New York. Media Q&A is expected. 08:15 AM ADP employment report, November (GS +160k, consensus +160k, last +147k): The ADP report introduced methodological changes this month, and will now offer more details by sector. We find that while the ADP employment report holds limited value for forecasting the BLS’s nonfarm payrolls report, large ADP payroll deviations from consensus forecasts are directionally correlated with NFP surprises. We expect a 160k gain in ADP payroll employment in November. 08:30 AM Personal income, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.3%): Personal spending, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); PCE price index, October (GS +0.28%, consensus +0.30%, last +0.20%); Core PCE price index, October (GS +0.15%, consensus +0.10%, last +0.10%);PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.2%); Core PCE price index (yoy), October (GS +1.8%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%): We expect personal income to rise by 0.4% and personal spending to rise by 0.5% in October. We also expect core PCE prices to increase by 0.15% in October, or 1.8% from a year ago. In the October report, core CPI increased by 0.15% month-over-month, or 2.2% from a year ago. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, November (GS 52.5, consensus 52.0, last 50.6): We expect the Chicago PMI to rise by 1.9pt to 52.5 in the November report. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, October (consensus +0.1%, last +1.5%): Consensus expects pending home sales to rise by 0.1% in October following a 1.5% gain in September. We have found pending home sales—based on contract signings rather than closings—to be a decent leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. 11:45 AM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks:Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will participate in a discussion titled “The View from the Fed” at an event sponsored by the Brookings Institution on “Understanding Fedspeak” in Washington D.C. 12:35 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at a lunch sponsored by the African American Chamber of Commerce of Western Pennsylvania. Media Q&A is expected. 02:00 PM Beige Book, December FOMC meeting period: The Fed's Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The November Beige Book reported that activity continued to expand across most districts, and the pace of growth improved in the few districts reporting a slowdown in the prior report. The November Beige Book additionally reported continued labor market tightening and an improvement in credit conditions. Wage growth held steady, while consumer spending and manufacturing activity were both mixed. In the December Beige Book, we will look for additional anecdotes related to wage growth, manufacturing activity, and consumer spending. Thursday, December 1 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 26 (GS 245k, consensus 253k, last 251k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 19 (consensus 2,040k, last 2,043k); We expect initial jobless claims to decrease to 245k from 251k. Initial claims picked up to 251k last week, most likely reflecting a rebound from the prior week’s decline due to seasonal effects related to the Veterans Day holiday. 08:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give opening remarks at the "Innovation, Market Structure, and Financial Stability" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Treasury Department Office of Financial Research. No Q&A is expected. 09:45 AM Markit manufacturing PMI, November final (consensus 53.9, preliminary 53.9): Consensus expects the Markit services survey to be in line with its flash estimate. Most responses to the survey are received by the time of the preliminary release, and revisions in the final release tend to be fairly minor. 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, November (GS 52.5, consensus 52.2, last 51.9): Regional manufacturing surveys so far have mostly improved in November, and we expect ISM manufacturing to increase to 52.5. The Richmond Fed survey (+8pt to +4) and the Empire State survey (+8.3pt to +1.5) both rose, while the Kansas City Fed survey softened (-5pt to +1). The Philly City Fed survey softened a bit (-2.1pt to +7.6), but continues to suggest a moderate expansion in manufacturing activity. On net, our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM Index—increased to 52.8 (vs. 51.9 in October). 10:00 AM Construction spending, October (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.4%): We expect construction spending to improve in October. Construction spending softened by 0.4% in the September report, while earlier months were revised up. 04:00 PM Total vehicle sales, November (GS 17.4mn, consensus 17.7mn, last 17.9mn): Domestic vehicle sales, November (GS 14.0mn, consensus 14.0mn, last 14.1mn) Friday, December 2 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, November (GS +180k, consensus +175k, last +161k); Private payroll employment, November (GS +165k, consensus +170k, last +142k); Average hourly earnings (mom), November (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), November (GS +2.7%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.8%); Unemployment rate, November (GS 4.8%, consensus 4.9%, last 4.9%): We expect an October nonfarm payrolls gain of 180k, after a 161k increase in October. Measures of consumer confidence improved, while the employment components of regional Fed service sector surveys were mostly better. Initial claims picked up slightly in November, but still remain near post-crisis lows. The unemployment rate is likely to edge down one-tenth to 4.8%. We expect average hourly earnings to increase 0.1% month over month and rise 2.7% year over year. 12:30 PM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will give the keynote speech at the "Innovation, Market Structure, and Financial Stability" conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Treasury Department Office of Financial Research. Source: DB, BofA, GS

18 ноября, 22:01

President Trump: To Jumpstart the U.S. Economy, Please Honor Your Promise to Break Up the Big Banks!

Donald Trump and the Republican Platform Called for Restoring Glass-Steagall and Breaking Up the Too Big to Fails The Republican platform under Donald Trump called for restoring the Glass-Steagall separation between traditional depository banking and speculative investment banking.  Trump himself has called for it. This would lead to the break up of the giant banks. The New York Times explains: The Republican Party platform calls for breaking up the large banks by restoring the New Deal-era Glass-Steagall Act, which required a separation of investment from commercial banking. The People Want Them Broken Up As Minneapolis Fed President Kaskari points out, a lot of the populist anger which got Donald Trump elected is based on allowing the too big to fail banks to survive: Mr. Kashkari said he traced some of the nation’s current political anger and polarization to how the government responded to the financial crisis — which allowed large banks to survive while thousands of Americans struggled to keep their homes and find new jobs.   “The bailouts violated a core belief that has been handed down from generation to generation in our society that if you take a risk you bear the rewards and consequences of that risk,” he said. “We had to tear that up during the crisis because the biggest banks were going to fail and bring down the U.S. economy. And when you violate the core beliefs of society it does lead to anger and a feeling that this wasn’t fair.” Most Americans opposed the bailouts of the giant banks, and want them broken up. Indeed, the IMF has warned that bank bailouts were so unpopular, that a revolution could occur if more bailouts were given. So Do Economists and Financial Experts Economists and financial experts from across the political spectrum agree that we’ve got to rein in the “too big to fail” banks. Why do so many top bankers, economists, financial experts and politicians say that the big banks should be broken up? Because they’re no longer acting like banks, and are destroying the economy. The best way to jumpstart the economy would be to restore Glass-Steagall and break up the bloated banks. Here’s a sample of economists and financial experts calling for the too big to fails to be broken up or dramatically reined in: Current chair of the Federal reserve, Janet Yellen (and see this) Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker Current President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis – who oversaw the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Financial Stability – Neel Kashkari Former Secretary of the Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson Former Secretary of Labor, Robert Reich Current Vice Chair and director of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – and former 20-year President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City – Thomas Hoenig (and see this) Nobel prize-winning economist, Joseph Stiglitz Nobel prize-winning economist, Ed Prescott Nobel prize-winning economist, Paul Krugman Chief Stability Officer at the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane (and see this and this) Former Federal Reserve Bank of New York economist and Salomon Brothers vice chairman, Henry Kaufman Dean and professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School, and chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush, R. Glenn Hubbard Former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, Simon Johnson (and see this) Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher (and see this) President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard Deputy Treasury Secretary, Neal S. Wolin The Congressional panel overseeing the bailout (and see this) The former head of the FDIC, Sheila Bair The head of the Bank of England, Mervyn King The Bank of International Settlements (the “Central Banks’ Central Bank”) The International Monetary Fund The leading monetary economist and co-author with Milton Friedman of the leading treatise on the Great Depression, Anna Schwartz Economics professor and senior regulator during the S & L crisis, William K. Black Leading British economist, John Kay Economics professor, Nouriel Roubini Economist, Marc Faber Professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the Chicago Booth School of Business, Luigi Zingales Economics professor, Thomas F. Cooley Economist Dean Baker Economist Arnold Kling Chairman of the Commons Treasury, John McFall The Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Harvey Rosenblum Director, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Bonn, and Professor of Economics, University of Bonn, Martin Hellwig And the head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank – and former Goldman Sachs chief economist – William Dudley says that we should not tolerate a financial system in which certain financial institutions are deemed to be too big to fail. Federal Reserve Board governor Daniel Tarullo also backs a cap on the size of banks, and Former Treasury secretary under Reagan and George H.W. Bush, Nicolas Brady, says that we need to put a cap on leverage. Top Bankers Call for Big Banks to Be Broken Up While you might assume that bankers themselves don’t want the giant banks to be broken up, many are in fact calling for a break up, including: Former Citi CEO Sandy Weill Former Citi CEO John Reed Former Citi chairman Richard Parsons Former Merrill Lynch chairman and CEO David Komansky Former Morgan Stanley CEO Philip Purcell Former managing director of Goldman Sachs – and head of the international analytics group at Bear Stearns in London- Nomi Prins Numerous other bankers within the mega-banks (see this, for example) Founder and chairman of Signature Bank, Scott Shay Former Natwest and Schroders investment banker, Philip Augar The President of the Independent Community Bankers of America, Camden Fine

18 ноября, 16:54

К вечеру продажи на рынке акций могут усилиться - "Открытие Брокер"

В 17:30 мск выступят президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли и президент ФРБ Канзаса Эстер Джордж, в 18:00 мск будут опубликованы опережающие экономические индикаторы США, в 21:00 мск - статистика Baker Hughes по активным буровым установкам. К закрытию дня могут усилиться продажи на российском рынке акций. С другой стороны, отмечает аналитик "Открытие Брокер" Андрей Кочетков, кроме возможного провала нефти поводов для существенного движения вниз нет. Более того, американский доллар оказался чрезмерно перегретым, что может намекать на грядущую коррекцию, которая поддержит интерес к рискованным активам, включая нефть.

18 ноября, 14:43

Золото и серебро вблизи важных уровней поддержки

Влияние на рынок:1Devata TsengЗолотоЗолото снизилось в цене на 5.18% после президентских выборов в США за счёт резкого разворота доллара. 11-го ноября был сломлен психологически важный уровень поддержки на 1250.Выступление Йеллен вчера ещё больше подняло рыночные ожидания повышения ставки. Индекс доллара обновил многолетние максимумы в 101.435, что ещё больше надавило на цену золота.К настоящему момент спот на золото находится вблизи важного среднесрочного уровня поддержки на 1200. Вблизи этой отметки медвежий импульс, вероятно, потеряет силу.На графиках дневных свечей Стохастик ниже 20, предполагая откат.Уровень сопротивления на 1210, далее идёт 1215 и 1220.Уровень поддержки на 1207, далее идёт 1205 и 1200.Сегодня в 14:30 GMT выступают президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли и Канзаса – Истер Джордж. Также стоит обратить внимание на публикацию индекса опережающих индикаторов по США, выходящего в 15:00 GMT. Эти события могут оказать влияние на силу доллара и тренд цен золота.СереброПосле выборов в США серебро существенно потеряло, снизившись на 9.78%, не без влияния роста курса доллара. 11-го ноября были сразу сломлены две важные поддержки – на 18.00 и 17.00. Вчерашнее выступление также оказало негативное влияние на котировки этого металла.В настоящий момент серебро приближается к важному долгосрочному уровню поддержки на 16. Вблизи этой отметки медвежий импульс, вероятно, потеряет силу.На графиках дневных свечей Стохастик ниже 20, предполагая откат.Уровень сопротивления на 17.00, далее идёт 17.40 и 17.80.Уровень поддержки на 16.50, далее идёт 16.30 и 16.00.Сегодня в 14:30 GMT выступают президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли и Канзаса – Истер Джордж. Также стоит обратить внимание на публикацию индекса опережающих индикаторов по США, выходящего в 15:00 GMT. Эти события могут оказать влияние на силу доллара и тренд цен серебра.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/market-snapshots/18112016-zoloto-i-serebro-vblizi-vazhnyih-urovney-podderzhki/ ..Источник: FxTeam

17 ноября, 16:45

Доллар выше 70 рублей не пойдет, но уровни 67-68 по паре USD/RUB вполне реалистичны

Единой динамики на рынке акций не наблюдается, но вместе с тем индекс ММВБ открылся слабым ростом. Позитивный эффект оказывают акции экспорт-ориентированных компаний, большинство которых торгуются в положительной зоне, а также акции сектора электроэнергетики. С другой стороны, несколько слабо выглядят бумаги финансового и потребительского сектора. Большая часть торговой сессии в России, скорее всего, пройдет довольно ровно, но вместе с открытием Америки можно будет увидеть усиление колебаний индикаторов. Сегодня в Конгрессе, впервые после президентских выборов, предстоит выступить с речью Джаннет Йеллен, также на конференции в Нью-Йорке выступят члены FOMC Уильям Дадли и Лайел Брейнард. В целом закрытие четверга, скорее всего, пройдет в районе 2030-2040 пунктов по индексу ММВБ. А предстоящую неделю можно охарактеризовать как неделю ожиданий, внимание большинства участников рын

14 ноября, 15:46

"A Barrage Of Fed Speakers": The Key Events In The Coming Very Busy Week

The key economic releases this week are retail sales on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Yellen’s testimony before Congress on Thursday. As markets continue to digest the implications of the US election outcome, there is a host of data and Central Bank communication adding to the running narrative with Fed speakers appearing on every single day of the week. In addition to barrage of daily Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get US inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed. But it's not the data that will be the primary focus this week, it's the Fed speakers who are as follows: Monday: Kaplan; Lacker; Williams Tuesday: Rosengren; Tarullo; Fischer Wednesday: Bullard; Kashkari; Harker Thursday: Dudley; Yellen; Brainard; Evans Friday: Bullard; George; Kaplan; Powell In data: In the US focus will be on inflation data and retail sales, while across the pond we get labor market, inflation and retail sales data from the UK. The Euro area releases are more backward looking so focus will tilt towards ECB communication. Meanwhile in Australia, while the RBA Minutes are unlikely to add much new information, the labor market report will likely show employment growth falling for the third consecutive quarter. This should be an important reminder for the RBA policy outlook that there is still spare capacity in the labor market and weak wages growth. In Central Bank speakers: A wealth of Central Bank speakers on the calendar this week should keep markets busy looking for hints on their intentions and reactions to the US election result. Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee and speeches from ECB President Draghi and BoJ Governor Kuroda will likely gain the most attention. In the US, in addition to a number of Fed speakers, including Chair Yellen, we get inflation data, retail sales, housing data, empire manufacturing, industrial production and the Philly Fed. In the Eurozone, data will be predominantly backward looking with the second estimate of EZ 3Q GDP and a first look at Q3 for Germany and Italy. Multiple ECB speakers on the calendar including President Draghi. In the UK, this week's three key data releases are labor market, inflation and retail sales. We also hear from Carney and Shafik testifying on the November QIR. In Australia, the RBA releases the minutes of the November meeting, but labor market data will be more significant. In New Zealand we get a range of activity data – house sales (Oct), retail volumes (3Q), job ads and consumer confidence. In Japan, Q3 GDP the only release of note, but we do hear from BoJ Governor Kuroda. In Canada, inflation and factory sales are the main data releases. * * * DB's Jim Reid breaks down the main events in the coming busy week by day: In terms of data, it’s a very quiet start to the week today with the only data this morning in Europe being the industrial production report for the Euro area. There’s nothing due out in the US this afternoon. We kick off tomorrow morning in Germany where the preliminary Q3 GDP report will be released. Shortly after that we get CPI in France and the full inflation data dump in the UK. Thereafter we get Q3 GDP for the Euro area and the November ZEW survey out of Germany. We’ve got important data in the US tomorrow too with October retail sales, September business inventories, November empire manufacturing and also the October import price index. Turning to Wednesday, the early data comes from the UK again with the September and October employment report. It’s another busy session in the US on Wednesday with October PPI, industrial and manufacturing production and also the NAHB housing market index print for this month. We kick off Thursday in France again where we’ll get Q3 employment numbers. Thereafter the UK reports October retail sales data before we get the final October CPI revisions for the Euro area. Over in the US on Thursday the big focus will be on the October CPI report, while housing starts, building permits, initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed PMI round off another busy day. Friday morning it’s the turn of China where the October property prices data will be out. Over in Europe the only data of note is the PPI report in Germany while in the US we finish the week with the leading index and Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. Away from the data, it’s an absolutely packed week for Fedspeak. Today we have Kaplan, Lacker and Williams all speaking tonight. Tomorrow we have Rosengren, Tarullo, Fischer and Kaplan all speaking from midday. On Wednesday it’s the turns of Bullard, Kashkari and Harker. Thursday is the big one with Fed Chair Yellen testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, while Brainard will also speak. On Friday we’ve also got Bullard, George and Kaplan on the cards. Meanwhile, over at the ECB we will hear from President Draghi today when he attends an event in Rome. With it also being Euro Finance week there is a steady stream of speakers throughout the week in Frankfurt. This year’s conference is called “Brexit, Banking, Bubbles – Chances and Risks in the New Normal”. If that wasn’t enough, in the UK BoE Governor Carney is scheduled to testify before Parliament on Tuesday. The other event to note is the scheduled meeting between President-elect Trump and Japanese PM Abe on Thursday. * * * Focuing only on the US, here is Goldman with a detailed breakdown of US events and expectations: Monday, November 14 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, Q4 01:20 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A focused on the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve at the Wichita Falls Annual Economic Forum in Texas. President Kaplan will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. 05:00 PM Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks:  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will take part in a panel discussion on the topic “Our Fiscal Health: How the National Debt Could Impact the Future of America’s Youth” at Washington College in Maryland. Media Q&A is scheduled in advance of the event at 4:30 PM. 06:30 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will take part in a panel discussion at the Bay Area Council in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected. Tuesday, November 15 07:30 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren will give the keynote address on “The Economy’s Progress and Outlook” at the Portland Chamber of Commerce in Maine. 08:30 AM Retail sales, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%); Retail sales ex-auto, October (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Core retail sales, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): We expect headline retail sales to rise 0.5% after gasoline prices continued to rise in October. Core retail sales are likely to increase by 0.3% after a soft September figure which reflected modest weakness in a number of categories. For Q3, core retail sales growth slowed notably, rising at an annualized rate of 1.1%, versus 6.7% in Q2. 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, November (consensus -2.0, last -6.8): Consensus expects the Empire manufacturing survey to move up but remain at contractionary levels in November. In the October report, the Empire manufacturing survey weakened and most of the underlying components remained at contractionary levels. 08:30 AM Import price index, October (consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%): Consensus expects the import price index to increase by 0.4% in October. In September, the headline index advanced 0.1%, boosted by higher fuel prices. 9:00 AM Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo will give a speech on “Finance and the Economy” at The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council in Washington. 10:00 AM Business inventories, September (consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%): Consensus expects a 0.2% increase in inventory levels in September. 01:30 PM Federal Reserve Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give the keynote speech at a Brookings Institution event on the topic, “Do we have a liquidity problem post-crisis?” in Washington D.C. 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter speaks): Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Kaplan will give a speech at the North American Strategy for Competitiveness Conference in Dallas, Texas. Wednesday, November 16 03:45 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will participate in a panel on “Monetary Policy after QE: Helicopter Money or Back to Raising Rates?” at the UBS European Conference 2016 in London. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 07:30 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech at the New York Economic Club. President Kashkari will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. 08:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We expect PPI to increase by 0.3% after a firmer than expected September report. The headline PPI index moved higher in part due to higher energy and goods prices. 09:15 AM Industrial production, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%):;  Manufacturing production, October (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); Capacity utilization, October (GS 75.5%, consensus 75.5%, last 75.4%): We expect industrial production to increase 0.3% (mom) in October following a 0.1% gain in the prior month. 10:00 AM Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations, November (last +1.7%) 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, October (consensus 63, last 63): The NAHB Housing Market Index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—declined in September but remained near post-crisis highs. Consensus expects the index to be unchanged in October. 4:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows, September (last +$73.8bn) 05:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will give a speech on the purposes and function of the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia. Audience and media Q&A is expected. President Harker will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. Thursday, November 17 08:30 AM CPI (mom), October (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.40%, last +0.29%): Core CPI (mom), October (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.20%, last +0.11%); CPI (yoy), October (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.5%) ;Core CPI (yoy), October (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.2%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.21% in October or 2.2% on a year-on-year basis. In September, core CPI rose by a smaller than expected 0.11%, due to a decline in apparel and wireless telephone prices. We estimate headline consumer prices increased by 0.37% last month, partially driven by higher energy prices, after CPI rose 0.29%. On a year-on-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 1.7%. 08:30 AM Housing starts, October (GS +11.0%, consensus +10.3%, last -9.0%); Building permits, October (consensus -2.9%, last +6.3%); We expect that housing starts recovered by 11.0% in October, following a substantial 9.0% decline in September that was largely driven by a 38% drop in the volatile multifamily starts category. Consensus expects new permits to decline by 2.9% after a stronger than expected 6.3% gain in September. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 12 (GS 255k, consensus 256k, last 254k);  Continuing jobless claims, week ended November 5 (last 2,041k): We expect initial jobless claims to tick up to 255k from 254k. Last week, claims declined by more than anticipated. Much of the decline last week was accounted for by drops in Missouri and Kentucky after auto plant shutdowns in the prior week led to a temporary boost in claims. 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, November (GS +8.0, consensus +8.0, last +9.7): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to edge down to +8.0 in November after the index declined by 3.1pt to +9.7 in November. 08:50 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give opening remarks at the New York Fed’s Global Research Forum on International Macroeconomics and Finance. 10:00 AM Federal Reserve Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee on the economic outlook. 12:30 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “The Evolution of Work and the Increase in Alternative Work Arrangements” at the Forum on the Evolution of Work event sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Board of Governors, Freelancers Union, and New York Fed. 02:45 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans will give opening remarks at the 11th Annual Community Bankers Symposium in Chicago. President Evans will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. Friday, November 18 05:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard will give a speech at the Frankfurt European Banking Congress. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 09:30 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George will give a speech at a joint conference held by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City on “Oil and the Economy: Adapting to a New Reality” in Houston, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Leading indicators, October (consensus +0.1%, last +0.2%) 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, November (last +6) 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will give a speech at the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City’s joint conference on “Oil and the Economy: Adapting to a New Reality” in Houston, Texas. Audience Q&A is expected. President Kaplan will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2017. 09:45 PM Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will give a speech on “The Global Trade Slowdown and Its Implications for Emerging Asia” at the Center for Pacific Basin Studies 2016 Research Conference held in San Francisco. * * * Source: BofA, DB. GS

05 ноября, 13:46

Как Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка совершил ошибку в отношении кражи денег у Банка Бангладеш

Когда хакеры попытались украсть почти 1 миллиард долларов из центрального банка Бангладеш, Федеральный резервный банк Нью-Йорка не заметил настораживающих признаков и почти позволил уйти всем деньгам. В статье представлена информация из первых рук о том, что произошло.

12 октября 2015, 23:05

ФРС может опустить ставки ниже 0% при новом кризисе

В руководстве Федеральной резервной системы рассматривают возможность использования отрицательных процентных ставок, в случае если американская экономика вновь столкнется с серьезным кризисом.