Banks should put more of the burdens of fines on management rather than have the entire burden on shareholders, New York Fed President and CEO William Dudley said today.
It's a busy, holiday-shortened week for US data and Fed speakers: we get consumer confidence, the Case-Shiller house price index, final print of GDP and U. Michigan sentiment, advance goods trade balance, pending home sales, personal income & spending, core PCE and Chicago PMI. Consumer confidence on Tues is expected to stay at elevated levels, driven by higher take-home pays and a strong labor market. After five consecutive months of a widening in the goods trade deficit, totaling $11.6bn, on Wed the deficit is expected to narrow to $74.4bn in February from $75.3bn in January. Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 230,000, holding steady from the prior week's reading of 229,000. Core PCE inflation is likely to rise 0.2% (0.199% unrounded) in February, edging up yoy inflation to 1.6% (1.552% unrounded). Real consumption should be flat. Fed Presidents Dudley, Mester, Quarles, Bostic, and Harker all speak this week. But the most notable event this week has nothing to do with macro, but instead with another record deluge of bond supply from the US Treasury, or as Bloomberg puts it, an "unprecedented wave of issuance" as the Treasury auctions off $294 billion of bills and notes this week, its largest slate of supply ever. The $30 billion two-year note sale is the biggest since 2014, and comes as the maturity posted just its fourth weekly gain in the last six months. The three- and six-month bill offerings remain at record sizes. “These larger auctions are more difficult to digest,” said Thomas Simons, a money-market economist at Jefferies. “But the auctions do OK when they have a concession. It’s even more necessary than it was in the past.” Elsewhere, the EU-Turkey summit is expected to takes place on Mon, with EU hope to release of a second tranche of the refugee deal and Turkey to press on customs union upgrade. Egypt begins a three-day presidential election on Mon. China's four biggest banks to post annual earnings with potential highlight of bad loan and capital condition. A full breakdown of key events day by day, courtesy of Deutsche Bank: Monday: The main highlights to kick the week off will likely be comments from various central bankers including the ECB's Weidmann in the morning and the Fed's Dudley and Mester in the evening. The only notable data releases due on Monday are the final Q4 GDP revisions in France and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity print in the US for March. Away from this, UK and EU negotiators are due to meet to discuss post-Brexit Irish border issues. Tuesday: Overnight, the Fed's Quarles is due to speak at an event in Atlanta. There's no notable data to highlight in Asia while in Europe the main focus will likely be the March confidence indicators for the Euro area. In the US we'll also get the March consumer confidence print, as well the March Richmond Fed manufacturing PMI and January S&P/Case-Shiller house price index readings. The Fed's Bostic will then speak at a conference in the late afternoon, while the BoE is due to publish the record of its Financial Policy Committee meeting. Wednesday: Early in the morning on Wednesday we should hear from the new PBOC deputy governor Pan Gongsheng. Datawise all eyes will be on the US with the third and final revisions due to be made for Q4 GDP, while the February advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales data are also due out. The Fed's Bostic is due to again make comments in the late afternoon. In Europe consumer confidence prints in Germany and France, and March CBI retail sales data in the UK is due. Thursday: A busy day for data highlighted by the February PCE data in the US, and personal income and spending reports. The latest weekly initial jobless claims reading, March Chicago PMI and final revisions to the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading is also due. In Europe the main highlight will likely be the flash March CPI report in Germany. Money and credit aggregates data in the UK along with the final Q4 GDP revision is also due. Away from the data, in the early evening the Fed's Harker is due to speak. Friday: With most major markets shut for the long weekend holiday it should be a quiet end to the week. Industrial production and housing starts data is due in Japan for February while in Europe we'll get the flash March CPI reports in France and Italy. There is nothing due in the US. Finally, here is Goldman with a focus on US events this week, together with consensus estimates. The key economic releases next week are the third vintage of Q4 GDP on Wednesday and the personal income and spending report on Thursday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week Monday, March 26 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +33.5, last +37.2) 12:30 PM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech on regulatory reform at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:30 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester will give a speech on monetary policy at Princeton University. Audience Q&A is expected. 07:10 PM Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will discuss “The Roles of Consumer Protection and Small Business Access to Credit in Financial Inclusion” at the HOPE Global Forums annual meeting in Atlanta. Questions from a moderator are expected. Tuesday, March 27 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%); We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 0.6% in the January report in line with the December pace. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which ticked down one tenth to 6.3% in December. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, March (GS 129.0, consensus 131.0, last 130.8); We expect consumer confidence declined 1.8 points to 129.0. The February level of consumer confidence was elevated—both on an absolute basis and relative to other sentiment measures. Additionally, the stock market pullback and the rise in policy uncertainty likely weighed on consumer confidence this month. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +22, last +28) 11:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will participate in a conversation at the HOPE Global Forums annual meeting in Atlanta. Wednesday, March 28 08:30 AM GDP (third), Q4 (GS +2.5%, consensus +2.7%, last +2.5%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +3.8%, consensus +3.8%, last +3.8%): The BEA will publish the third vintage of Q4 GDP, which we expect to remain at +2.5%. However, we believe that the risks to this estimate are skewed to the upside, and we note the possibility of an upward revision to the inventory component. 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advanced goods trade balance, February (GS -$75.5bn, consensus -$74.2bn, last -$75.3bn); Wholesale inventories, February preliminary (last +0.8%): The expect the goods trade deficit to rise in February (+$0.2bn to $75.5bn), adding to the sharp increases in recent months. Our forecast reflects a surge in inbound container traffic, likely related to this year’s later-than-usual Chinese New Year. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, February (GS -1.5%, consensus +2.0%, last -4.7%): Regional housing data released so far suggested another step down in contract signings, and we estimate pending home sales fell 1.5% in February. If realized, this would suggest scope for existing homes sales to resume their declines in March following a February rebound (pending home sales are a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag). 11:30 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will participate in a discussion at an event hosted by the Atlanta Society of Finance and Investment Professionals in Atlanta. Audience Q&A is expected. Thursday, March 29 8:30 AM Personal income, February (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Personal spending, February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PCE price index, February (GS +0.18%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.37%); Core PCE price index, February (GS +0.22%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.27%); PCE price index (yoy), February (GS +1.73%, consensus +1.70%, last +1.65%); Core PCE price index (yoy), February (GS +1.58%, consensus +1.6%, last +1.52%): Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose +0.22% month-over-month in February, or 1.6% from a year ago. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.18% in February, or 1.7% from a year earlier. We expect a 0.5% increase in February personal income and a 0.3% rise in personal spending. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 24 (GS 230k, consensus 230k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 17 (consensus 1,865k, last 1,828k): We estimate initial jobless claims edged up 1k 230k in the week ended March 24. Jobless claims have remained low in recent weeks, and while claims in New York look somewhat elevated and could normalize, we nonetheless expect another low reading. Continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—fell to a new cycle low in the prior week. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, March (GS 62.5, consensus 62.0, last 61.9): We expect the Chicago PMI increased 0.6pt to 62.5 in March following a 3.8pt drop in February. The index is likely to remain at a level consistent with solid manufacturing growth, consistent with incoming reports from other regional manufacturing surveys. 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, March final (GS 101.5, consensus 102.0, last 102.0): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to decline 0.5pt to 101.5 in the March final estimate, reflecting the pullback in the stock market in the second half of the month. The University of Michigan’s survey of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations was stable at 2.5% in the preliminary March report. 01:00 PM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC non-voter) speaks; Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker will participate in a discussion on the economic outlook at an event hosted by the New York Association of Business Economics in New York. Audience Q&A is expected. Friday, March 30 US equity and bond markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. Source: BofA, DB, Goldman
It seems that "Black Monday" has been averted, with global risk sentiment making a full reversal to start the week, and the precipitous selloff from Thursday and (Black) Friday turning into a furious rally on Monday, starting in Asian markets and proceeding to Europe and US stock futures, which are up 1.4%, and back over the key 2,610 support level. In other words, once again the 200DMA at 2,585 has proven a key support for the S&P500. “It was the week when one bad thing led to another, it was a perfect storm,” said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management. “You took the starch out of the FANGs, you saw banks, industrials, discretionary companies reacting to negative news. What investors are not pricing in is a potential impact on companies’ profit margins." On Monday, the perfect storm had faded, although it remained to be seen if this was just the eye of the hurricane. What prompted the surge: the most commonly cited reason is that jitters over brewing trade tensions between the U.S. and China have again eased, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Fox News that he’s "cautiously hopeful" the U.S. can reach a trade deal with China that will avert the need for Trump to impose up to $60BN in tariffs on China - of course, what else would he say? There was also renewed optimism that the United States and China are set to begin negotiations on trade, following reports in both the FT and WSJ, further easing fears about a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. MSCI’s world equity index turned positive on the day, having earlier hit its lowest level since February 9, after a Wall Street Journal report that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin was considering a visit to Beijing to begin negotiations. “I don’t think that long-term the tariffs will continue to be enforced,” Scot Lance, managing director at California-based Titus Wealth Management, said by phone. “They’ll pull them off the table at some point, I just don’t know if that will be a week, a month, a quarter? Could it last a whole year? I don’t necessarily think it’ll last for a long time.” All of the uncertainty has kept the once-reliable dip buyers on the sidelines this time. Consider: as Bloomberg notes, the S&P 500 has closed lower than the midpoint of its daily range for 10 straight days, the longest stretch since at least 1982. That suggests traders are finding reasons to dump shares in the afternoon rather than buy dips. That sentiment may have reversed this morning, however: "It appears that the market is not expecting a full-blown trade war, and a currency war for competitive advantage is not a likely option at this moment," said Mizuho's Ken Cheung, who will clearly retract and say the opposite should futures reverse their gain and slump. "Risk sentiment, as being reflected by Asian equities, and further responses from the Chinese authorities to the trade war will drive the market." Also overnight, as we reported previously, the U.S. and South Korea reached an agreement on revising their trade deal, with South Korea avoiding steel tariff, which was also to be expected, as the target of Trump's trade war - it has become especially obvious by now - is not Europe, and not all of Asia, but simply China. As a result, S&P futures are sharply higher in early trade, and the S&P trying to undo all of its 2.1% losses from Friday, although it may have a harder time to offset last week's 6% loss, which was the biggest weekly drop since early 2016. European shares headed for their first gain in four days as investors assess the latest developments in a trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. European bourses are higher across the board (Eurostoxx +0.4%) with the exception of the FTSE MIB (-0.3%), shrugging off Friday's negative sentiment. Sectors are making broad gains, healthcare is outperforming after a positive drug update from Roche (+1.6%) and energy is underpinned despite slightly softer oil prices. Asian markets also stabilized, with the ASX 200 down -0.5% led lower by its largest-weighted financials sector after the harsher losses seen in its US counterparts, while the Nikkei 225 fell to a near 6-month low, before staging a late rally back into positive territory, closing 0.6% higher after dropping -1.3%. Elsewhere, Shanghai the Shanghai Composite dropped -0.6%, weighed by trade tensions and rising Chinese money market rates (HKD 12-month HIBOR at 9-year high), while the KOSPI (+0.8%) bucked the trend after news that US and South Korea agreed in principal to a revised FTA and with South Korea to be exempted from US tariffs. In macro and FX, the risk on sentiment sent the yen sliding from a 16-month high as calm returned, if only for the time being, to world markets amid signs U.S.-China trade frictions may be easing. The USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 105.10 after earlier falling to 104.56, lowest since November 2016. "Risk aversion seems to have come a full circle with the first reaction to U.S.-China trade tensions last week, and it may be difficult to buy up the yen further without additional negative factors,” said Koji Fukaya, CEO at FPG Securities. On the other side, Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo said that “markets are now in the phase of waiting for Nikkei stock average to fall below 20,000 and USD/JPY to drop towards 100, so it’s meaningless to give specific projections before those levels." Meanwhile, bond markets this week will see another deluge of issuance, and bond traders will be tested this week as the Treasury will auction about $294 billion of bills and notes, the largest slate of supply ever. China last week did not rule out scaling back its purchases of U.S. debt as part of its response to proposed tariffs. The 10-year yield held near 2.84%. Concerns over the formation of a new anti-establishment government in Italy weighed on Southern European debt on Monday, though this was counterbalanced to an extent by a ratings upgrade for Spain late on Friday. Italian bonds underperformed, with 10-year yields rising as much as 4.5 basis points in early trade, on further signs the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the anti-migrant League might explore an alliance to form a government. But the euro was still on a positive trajectory, hitting a 10-day high of $1.2393 at one stage. In commodities, international Brent crude futures opened above $70 per barrel for the first time since January but the gains could not be sustained as the ongoing trade disputes weighed on global markets. Spot gold had hit five-week highs early but turned negative as the session wore on and was marginally lower on the day at $1,345. In M&A, Smurfit Kappa rejected International Paper’s revised takeover bid, while the U.K.’s JD Sports Fashion agreed to buy Finish Line in a $558 million deal. Red Hat and Paychex are among companies reporting earnings today. Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European bourses shrug off trade concerns with China looking to step up efforts in trade negotiations with the US A softer USD has seen EUR/USD and GBP/USD reclaim 1.2400 and 1.4200 to the upside respectively Looking ahead, highlights include ECB’s Weidmann, Fed’s Dudley and Mester Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures up 1.35% to 2,632.50 MSCI Asia Pac up 0.4% to 172.60 MSCI Asia Pac ex Japan up 0.5% to 567.49 Nikkei up 0.7% to 20,766.10 Topix up 0.4% to 1,671.32 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 30,548.77 Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,133.72 Sensex up 1% to 32,924.47 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,790.47 Kospi up 0.8% to 2,437.08 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 367.17 German 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.536% Euro up 0.3% to $1.2388 Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.622% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 1.259% Brent Futures down 0.2% to $70.30/bbl Gold spot little changed at $1,347.94 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 89.28 Top Overnight News China and the U.S. are said to quietly have started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, the WSJ reported, with talks being led by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide, Liu He, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, and U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer Mnuchin says he is ‘hopeful’ that a truce can be reached with China on trade; WSJ reports that China and U.S. quietly started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, according to sources China is conducting research on second and third lists of U.S. imports subject to the tariffs, China Daily reports; likely to cover airplanes, computer chips and tourism industry SF Fed’s Williams is the leading candidate to become next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, WSJ reports, citing sources Italy’s Northern League leader Salvini says that he’s ready to start govt. talks with everyone including Five Star Trump is preparing to expel dozens of Russian diplomats from the U.S. in response to the nerve-agent poisoning of a former Russian spy in the U.K; likely to be announced today according to people familiar Guo Shuqing, a high-profile banking regulator and ally of Jinping in cleaning up the financial system, is said to have been appointed as Communist Party secretary of the People’s Bank of China China launched its first ever crude-futures contract as the world’s biggest oil buyer seeks to wield greater power over pricing and challenge benchmarks in the U.S. and Europe New Zealand’s central bank agreed to target maximum employment alongside price stability in anticipation of a dual mandate being enshrined in law later this year League leader Matteo Salvini said he would start talks with Luigi Di Maio of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and other party leaders on forming Italy’s next government, with pension reform, tax cuts and curbs on immigration as his priorities U.S. President Donald Trump is poised to take his most aggressive actions yet against Russia on Monday, when he’s likely to announce the expulsion of dozens of diplomats in response to the nerve-gas attack on a former Russian spy living in the U.K. Asian stocks began the week mostly negative as trade concerns remained at the forefront of market focus and following last week’s losses on Wall St where stocks posted their worst weekly performance in over 2 years and the DJIA slipped into correction territory. ASX 200 (-0.5%) was negative with the index led lower by its largest-weighted financials sector after the harsher losses seen in its US counterparts, while Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) fell to a near 6-month low, before staging a late rally back into positive territory. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-0.6%) was weighed by trade tensions and rising Chinese money market rates (HKD 12-month HIBOR at 9-year high), while KOSPI (+0.8%) bucked the trend after news that US and South Korea agreed in principal to a revised FTA and with South Korea to be exempted from US tariffs. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued as prices failed to benefit from a risk-averse tone with demand dampened amid a lack of Rinban announcement by the BoJ, while a tier-1 US firm was said to be cautious on 2yr JGBs amid expectations for an increase in auction supply. Top Asian News The Builder of One of the World’s Largest Airports Revives IPO TPG Said to Near Deal for $1.2 Billion Indian Hospital Chain In Xi’s China Even the Central Bank Has a Party Boss at the Helm Thailand’s Red Bull Rival Slumps From Top to Bottom of World European equities are higher across the board (Eurostoxx +0.3%) with the exception of the FTSE MIB (-0.3%), shrugging off the negative sentiment on Wall Street and Asia dictated by looming trade disputes between China and the US. Sectors are making broad gains, healthcare is outperforming after a positive drug update from Roche (+1.6%) and energy is underpinned despite slightly softer oil prices. In terms of individual movers, Fresnillo (+5.5%) is the outperformer in the FTSE100 after an upgrade from Goldman Sachs whereas Smurfit Kappa (-4.3%) is the laggard following its refusal of the takeover offer from International Paper. Top European News Catalan Separatists Face Reality Check After Puigdemont Detained Givaudan Taps Organic Food Trend With $1.6 Billion Naturex Deal Murray & Roberts Jumps by Record on Unsolicited Takeover Bid In FX, Nzd/Usd nudging back up towards the 0.7300 level on a surprise NZ trade surplus and broader uptick in risk sentiment overnight as global trade war fears wane somewhat, with market contacts also reporting some decent buy orders in Nzd/Jpy as Usd/Jpy bounces off new recent lows not far off 104.50 to just over 105.00. Note, however, the headline pair has been capped amidst hefty option expiry interest at the big figure today and on Tuesday (around 2.5 bn in total). Aud/Usd is back above 0.7700 and approaching 0.7750 despite a couple of short trades of the week via crosses (vs Jpy and Cad), while Cable has breached the 1.4200 level on a mixture of hawkish BoE impulses and Brexit transition deal optimism. On that note, contacts also note some stopsales in Eur/Gbp from circa 0.8730 to 0.8723, which is the low of the range up to 0.8743. Nevertheless, Eur/Usd remains firm and has popped above 1.2400 on extended gains from trend-line support (1.2349) and its 30 DMA (1.2337). Usd/Cad looking at bids near and under 1.2850 amidst a broadly soft Greenback as the DXY remains sub-89.500 and trade/protectionism concerns continue to weigh. In commodities, oil futures are modestly lower, albeit remaining in close proximity to recent highs, as price action is centred around China with WTI crude futures failing to hold above USD 66/bbl with demand sapped as the debut of CNY-denominated oil futures contracts stole the limelight and rose 6% in early trade. In the metals bloc, gold is range-bound at around 5-week highs as a subdued greenback and risk-averse tone kept the safe-haven afloat, while copper weakened alongside losses in Chinese metals prices in which Shanghai Rebar dropped to its lowest since July. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.1 10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 33.5, prior 37.2 12:30pm: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on the Future of Financial Regulation 4:30pm: Fed’s Mester Speaks on Monetary Policy 7:10pm: Fed’s Quarles to Speak in Atlanta DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well that was a week that most won’t forget in a hurry. For anyone that was lucky enough to escape to a desert island last week, switched your phone off and only returned this morning then this is a 125-word summary of what you’ve missed: The seeds for the opening salvo of a trade war appear to have now been sown with President Trump and China trading blows, and it feels like it’s only the start with China signaling a willingness to go toe-to-toe. This transpired in a week in which the Fed showed that it remained committed to staying on a gradual rate hike course, concerns that global growth could be starting to roll over following the latest flash PMIs, the centre of the bull market – the tech sector – roiled by data leakage accusations at the hands of Facebook, and finally the White House revolving door continuing with the appointment of John Bolton – a man who had strongly supported an invasion of Iraq - as the national security advisor. That perfect storm of events resulted in some of the worst weeks for risk assets in years. Using the S&P 500 as an example, the index fell -5.95% last week, the biggest weekly decline since January 2016. Every sector closed lower so there was nowhere to hide although tech fell a fairly staggering -7.88%. The broader index is now easily in the red again for the year (-3.19%) and it also means that we have seen three separate 5% dips for the index in the last two months. What perhaps stood out the most about the price action last week was that any buy the dip mentality appeared to just disappear. In fact, that has been the case for the last two weeks with the S&P closing lower than the midpoint of its intraday range every single day. That’s the longest streak since at least 1982. Across other markets, the Nasdaq 100 – which bore the brunt of the Facebook news - fell -7.29% and the most since August 2015. The export heavy Nikkei and DAX fell -4.88% and -4.06% respectively. The Shanghai Comp was down -3.58%. Indeed, it’s now difficult to find a market which is positive YTD, although the FTSE MIB is one which can still just claim that. Meanwhile, it might not have been the volatility spike of early February but the VIX still rose over 9pts last week and closed just below 25 on Friday which is the highest since February 13th. Remember that the VIX average through the whole of 2017 was about 11. Elsewhere, credit certainly wasn’t immune. Moves for CDS indices are complicated by the rolls however CDX IG was still 15bps wider last week and is now at the widest since December 2016, while iTraxx Main and Crossover were 12bps and 41bps wider last week, respectively. Cash European and US high yield spreads were 21bps and 14bps wider. Given all the above, you might have thought that Treasury yields would be markedly lower. However, 10y yields were just 3bps lower last week having closed at 2.814%, and in fact they have closed with a 2.8% handle for 21 straight days which is fairly remarkable all things considered. Bunds were ‘only’ 4bps lower last week however it’s worth noting that they are now 24bps off their YTD yield highs. Unsurprisingly, the weekend news flow is filled with reaction to last week’s trade war developments. China’s Vice Premier Liu He, following a phone call with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, said that “China is prepared and has the ability to defend its national interests”. China has also suggested that it may issue an official complaint to the WTO about Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, with China not exempt from the levies. Remember that Trump has already threatened to remove the US from the WTO. Interestingly, Mnuchin has also been reported as saying that he is hopeful that the US and China can come to an agreement that will “forestall the need to impose the tariff’s that Trump has ordered on at least $50bn of goods” according to Bloomberg. The article quotes an interview Mnuchin had with Fox News, with the Treasury Secretary also quoted as saying that the US will proceed with the tariffs “unless we have an acceptable agreement that the President signs off on”. So perhaps some signs of a softening stance. This morning, the US and South Korea have reached an agreement on the principles of amending their bilateral trade deal, which includes the US permanently exempting South Korea from the steel tariffs. In return, South Korea will set quotas for steel exports to the US and will be more flexible on imposing safety / environment regulations on US made cars. In Asia, the Kospi is up +0.34% while other bourses have pared back steeper losses with the Nikkei (-0.33%), Hang Seng (-0.57%), ASX 200 (-0.45%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.64%) all down as we type. There’s better news for US equity futures with the S&P 500 currently up +0.55%, while Treasury yields are also up close to 2bps. There’s also been some non-tariff talk over the weekend with the newly appointed PBOC Governor Yi noting that China has three major tasks for the financial system – “i) implement prudent monetary policy, ii) push forward financial reforms and opening up and iii) win the battle against financial risks”. He added that the “opening up of the financial sector must be accompanied by the development of financial regulations” and it will proceed in coordination with reforms in China’s FX rate mechanism and capital account convertibility. Elsewhere, the WSJ has reported John Williams is the front runner to succeed William Dudley as the Head of the NY Fed. So, while it’s hard to see anything other than trade war developments really dominating markets this week, it’s worth noting that we do also have some inflation data due out in the holiday-shortened four days ahead. Specifically, Thursday’s PCE report in the US is scheduled. In terms of what to expect, the consensus is for a +0.2% mom core and deflator reading for February. The former would imply a jump of one-tenth in the annual rate to +1.6% yoy. Our economists also expect a +0.2% core print and they note that the report should take on a little more focus given the recent upgrade in the Fed’s forecast to above 2% core PCE for 2019. As a reminder too, the March data is when we see the wireless services print annualized which should add about 20bps and 10bps to the annual core CPI and PCE prints, respectively. Away from that we also have some flash March CPI data due in Europe this week with Germany on Thursday and France and Italy both reporting on Friday. Other than that, there is a decent flow of Fedspeak this week which if anything could help shape where FOMC participants’ median dots are now. Dudley (neutral) and Mester (hawk) kick things off today, followed by Quarles (neutral) and Bostic (neutral) on Tuesday, Bostic again on Wednesday and then Harker (dove) on Thursday. So expect the market to be looking out for where their rate expectations lie. Quickly recapping Friday, in terms of central bankers speak, the Fed’s Bostic and Kaplan both noted their base case was three rate hikes for this year (i.e. 2 more), but are “open minded and we’ll see how the year unfolds”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kashkari noted he supports the recent rate hike because it “represented continuity” at Powell’s first meeting, but added that the data does not support a rate hike at this point. In the UK, BOE’s Vlieghe noted “the current central outlook is….consistent with one or two 25bp rate increase per year over the forecast period”. Datawise, in the US, the February core durable goods orders (+1.2% mom vs. +0.5% expected) and core capital goods orders (+1.8% mom vs. +0.9% expected) were both above consensus. The February new home sales print fell -0.6% mom to 618k (vs. 620k expected) while the final reading for France’s 4Q wages growth was slightly higher at +0.2% qoq (vs. +0.1% expected).
В 10:40 GMT Германия проведет аукцион по продаже 5-ти летних бондов В 12:00 GMT ЦБ Польши опубликует свое решение по ставке В 13:00 GMT представитель FOMC Рафаэль Бостик выступит с речью В 13:20 GMT представитель FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam
It's a busy week with everything from politics (what's next for Italy), central banks (the ECB and BOJ), China's NPC, and US payrolls, where all eyes will be on the average hourly wages print, the catalyst that started the latest period of market volatility one month ago. A key event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday, where most economists believe policy will remain unchanged, but expect the ECB will begin to gradually change their language by dropping the easing bias to QE, especially since any especially adverse developments from the Italian elections or German SPD vote this weekend were avoided. Given this base case, BofA's rates strategists anticipate a selloff in Bunds and tightening of swap spreads. Friday's BoJ meeting should be a less exciting affair with the status quo maintained. Perhaps of most interest will be whether or not policy board member Goushi Kataoka officially puts forward his proposal for another easing. Also look out for rates meetings in Japan, Canada and Australia, where central banks are expected to remain on hold. There are also monetary policy meetings in Turkey, Poland, Malaysia, Peru and Kazakhstan. Sovereign rating review in Kazakhstan. Real GDP release in South Africa. CPI inflation data in China, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey. China's National People's Congress starts on Monday and continues through to March There are ten issues for investors to watch, summarized last night, including an amendment of the constitution, growth target, fiscal and monetary policy, property market regulation, financial regulation, personnel and institutional arrangement, industrial policies, further loosening in the birth policy, trade and opening up the service sector and finally environmental protection. The main event, however, will be the US nonfarm payrolls print where consensus expects an unchanged 200k payrolls print in February, although BofA expects a slowdown from 200K to 160K due to sectors such as trade, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade experiencing negative payback after a strong January. They also believe the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.1% for the fifth month in a row. Remember though that it was the bumper average hourly earnings print last time out (+0.3% mom) which dominated headlines. The consensus is for another +0.3% mom in February however base effects mean that the YoY rate would hold at +2.9% if that is the case. A visual recap of the week's main events from BofA: A detailed breakdown of daily events from Deutsche Bank: Monday: Politics should dominate the start to the week for markets. In China the National People’s Congress is due to begin in Beijing, with Premier Li due to present a draft of his work plan for 2018 (continues to March 20th). Away from politics, the main data releases on Monday will be the final February services and composite PMIs around the globe, along with Euro area retail sales for January, the Sentix investor confidence reading for March and the February ISM non-manufacturing in the US. Elsewhere BOJ Deputy Governor nominee's confirmation hearing will begin, while the Fed's Quarles is also due to speak. It's worth also highlighting that EU Council President Donald Tusk may circulate draft negotiating guidelines about the future relationship between the EU and UK on Monday. Tuesday: Tuesday’s diary is a bit quieter by comparison. With nothing of note in Europe, the main focus should be on the US where we are due to receive January factory orders data along with final revisions to durable and capital goods orders. Over at the Fed, Dudley is due to speak at 12.30pm GMT. Wednesday: A relatively busy day for data releases with the highlight in the European session being the final revisions to Q4 GDP for the Euro area. UK house price data for February and France trade data will also be released. In the US the main focus should be on the February ADP employment change reading, while final Q4 revisions for nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs are due, as well as the January trade balance reading and consumer credit print. Away from the data, the Fed’s Brainard (12am GMT), Kaplan (1.30am GMT), Dudley (1pm GMT) and Bostic (1pm GMT) are all due to speak, while the Fed will also release the Beige Book. It’s worth noting that late in the evening Japan will release final revisions to Q4 GDP. Brexit will again be a focus with ambassadors from all EU countries excluding the UK due to meet to hold their first discussion on draft guidelines about the future relationship between the UK and EU. Thursday: The big highlight on Thursday will be the ECB meeting at 12.45pm GMT, followed by President Draghi’s press conference. In terms of data, China’s trade stats for February will most likely warrant the closest attention, while January factory orders in Germany and the latest weekly initial jobless claims reading in the US are also due. Friday: It should be an interesting end to the week on Friday. Overnight the main focus will be on the BoJ meeting outcome, however China’s CPI and PPI reports for February will also be closely watched. In Europe January trade data in Germany will be due along with January industrial production reports for Germany, France and the UK. Finally the week ends in the US with the February employment report including the ever important nonfarm payrolls print. Average hourly earnings data will be just as closely watched however. Following that report, the Fed’s Rosengren and Evans will speak at 5.00pm GMT and 5.45pm GMT on monetary policy. Finally, looking at just the US... ... the key economic releases next week are the ISM nonmanufacturing index on Monday and the employment report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. A full breakdown from Goldman Sachs: Monday, March 5 09:45 AM Markit US Services PMI, February (last 55.9): Markit US Composite PMI, February (last 55.9) 10:00 AM ISM non-manufacturing index, February (GS 58.9, consensus 58.8, last 59.9): We estimate the ISM non-manufacturing index edged 1.0pt lower to 58.9 in February after the index rose to a new cycle high in the prior month. Regional surveys were mixed, as the Philly Fed and Richmond Fed service sector surveys strengthened while the New York Fed and Dallas Fed surveys pulled back. On net, our non-manufacturing survey tracker moved up 0.3pt to 58.0. Overall, the report is likely to continue to point toward a solid pace of growth in the service sector. 01:15 PM Vice Chairman for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will give a speech on foreign bank regulation at the Institute of International Bankers annual conference in Washington. Audience Q&A is expected. Tuesday, March 6 07:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President Dudley will participate in a discussion on last year’s hurricanes’ impact on the local economy in St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM Factory orders, January (GS -0.9%, consensus -1.2%, last +1.7%); Durable goods orders, January final (last -3.70%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, January final (last -0.3%); Core capital goods orders, January final (last -0.2%); Core capital goods shipments, January final (last +0.1%): We estimate factory orders fell 0.9% in January following 1.7% increases in November and December. Core measures for durable goods were fairly weak in January, with a small pullback in core capital goods orders and a 0.1% increase in core capital goods shipments. 07:00 PM Federal Reserve Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on the outlook for monetary policy and the economy at the Money Marketeers forum in New York. Audience Q&A is expected. 08:30 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A at the CERAWeek event in Houston. Audience Q&A is expected. Wednesday, March 7 08:00 AM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will give a speech in Fort Lauderdale, FL. Audience Q&A is expected. 08:15 AM ADP employment report, February (GS +220k, consensus +195k, last +234k): We expect a 220k increase in ADP payroll employment in February. While we believe the ADP employment report holds limited value for forecasting the BLS's nonfarm payrolls report, we find that large ADP surprises vs. consensus forecasts are directionally correlated with nonfarm payroll surprises. 08:20 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a presentation on the economic situation in Puerto Rico at an event in San Juan. Audience Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity (qoq saar), Q4 final (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%): Unit labor costs, Q4 final (GS +2.0%, consensus +2.0%, last +2.0%): We estimate non-farm productivity will remain at -0.1% in the second vintage, below the +0.75% trend achieved on average during this expansion. Similarly, we expect Q4 unit labor costs – compensation per hour divided by output per hour – to remain at +2.0% (qoq saar). 08:30 AM Trade balance, January (GS -$55.1bn, consensus -$55.0bn, last -$53.1bn): We expect the trade balance to widen by $2.0bn to -$55.1bn in January. The Advance Economic Indicators report last week showed the trade deficit in goods increased to its widest level since 2008. 02:00 PM Beige Book, March FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The January Beige Book noted that economic activity continued to expand across all districts. Labor market conditions were widely characterized as “tight” in most districts, an apparent downgrade from the widespread labor market tightness reported in the previous three Beige Books. In the March Beige Book, we look for additional anecdotes about the state of consumption, price inflation, and wage growth. 03:00 PM Consumer credit, January (consensus +$19.0bn, last +$18.4bn) Thursday, March 8 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 3 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 210k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 24 (consensus 1,919k, last 1,931k): We estimate initial jobless claims moved back up 15k to 225k in the week ended March 3, after a sizeable decline in the prior week. The trend in initial claims appears to be falling, and we look for another low reading. Continuing claims—the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs—rebounded by 57k in the prior week. Friday, March 9 08:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, February (GS +210k, consensus +205k, last +200k); Private payroll employment, February (GS +200k, consensus +195k, last +196k); Average hourly earnings (mom), February (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), February (GS +2.8%, consensus +2.8%, last +2.9%); Unemployment rate, February (GS 4.0%, consensus 4.0%, last 4.1%): We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose 210k in February, compared to a consensus forecast of +205k. Our forecast reflects warmer weather and unseasonably light snow in the month of February. Following a fourth 4.1% reading in a row, we estimate the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.0% in February as the underlying job growth trend likely remained strong; labor market perceptions improved, and initial claims continued to decline. For average hourly earnings, we estimate a +0.3% month-over-month gain (with risks tilted to the downside) and +2.8% from a year ago, reflecting favorable calendar effects. 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, January final (consensus +0.7%, last +0.7%) 12:45 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Federal Reserve President Evans will give a speech on economic conditions and monetary policy at an event titled “The Fed’s Return to Normalcy” at the Manhattan Institute in New York. Source: BofA, DB, Goldman
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Председатель Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) США Джером Пауэлл заявил, что экономика США не сталкивается с перегревом, даже когда влиятельный глава Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка предложил ускорить темпы роста ставок уже в 2018 г.
Председатель Федеральной резервной системы (ФРС) США Джером Пауэлл заявил, что экономика США не сталкивается с перегревом, даже когда влиятельный глава Федерального резервного банка Нью-Йорка предложил ускорить темпы роста ставок уже в 2018 году.
Рубль сегодня проведет торги в диапазоне Рубль снова отыгрывает внешние сигналы, которые сегодня не однозначны: снижение доллара не сопровождается ростом акций и цен на нефть, поскольку вызвано вновь исключительно политическими новостями из Вашингтона. Речь идет об усилении американского протекционизма администрацией Трампа, что накануне раскритиковал глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли, назвав это тупиком. Таким образом, если отбросить внутренние факторы, которы читать далее…
В четверг, 1 марта, фондовый рынок Соединенных Штатов завершил торговую сессию существенным снижением основных индексов. Американский рынок акций в третью сессию кряду понес потери более 1%, чему поспособствовало заявление президента США Дональда Трампа о намерении ввести пошлины на импорт стали и алюминия на следующей неделе, вызвавшее обеспокоенность инвестиционного сообщества. Выступления представителей ФРС, в свою очередь, вызвали смешанные эмоции игроков. Новый глава Федрезерва Джером Пауэлл во второй части своего доклада перед конгрессменами отметил, что не видит признаков перегрева американской экономики, а это было воспринято рынком как намек на менее оперативное повышение ключевой ставки. Тем временем, глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли, напротив, выступил в поддержку дальнейшего монетарного ужесточения достаточными темпами. Что касается опубликованной м
Вчера индекс ММВБ закрыл день без значительных изменений. Нынешнее послание президента России Владимира Путина Федеральному собранию имеет минимальное влияние на фондовый рынок. За полторы недели до выборов оно имело предвыборный характер. Население услышало про рост ВВП на душу населения в 1,5 раза к середине 2020-х годов, предприниматели про прорывные реформы, военные и работники ВПК про новые ракеты, пенсионеры услышали про повышение продолжительности жизни… Жизнь покажет какие прорывные реформы в экономике нас ожидают. Точно можно сказать, что по итогам послания сильные акции не стали слабыми и наоборот и техническую поддержку 2275 на графике индекса ММВБ послание не стерло. Призраки торговый войн несутся к Земле Снижение американского фондового рынка продолжилось. В четверг по итогам торгового дня индексы Dow Jones Industrial Average и S&P-500 показали падение более 1% в третий раз подряд. Дональд Трамп сообщил о решении увеличить таможенные пошлины на сталь и алюминий. Это вызвало беспокойства среди участников рынка на счет потенциального роста цен на сырье и риска начала торговой войны.В результате индекс волатильности VIX от Чикагской опционной биржи оказался на самом высоком уровне за период после 13 февраля. Акции крупных потребителей стали и алюминия, в том числе компаний по производству автомобилей, продолжили активно падать после того, как Трамп сообщил о решении установить на следующей неделе ввозные пошлины в США в размере 25% на сталь и 10% на алюминий. На фоне этой новости подскочили в цене акции американских компаний по производству стали и добыче алюминия. По итогам четверга акции GeneralMotors потеряли 3,99%, а FordMotor – 2,97%. Промышленные компании-тежеловесы, такие как Boeing и Caterpillar, тоже пострадали, так как инвесторы были обеспокоены на счет увеличения цен на сырье и введения торговых барьеров. Акции Boeing упали на 3,46%, а Caterpillar – на 2,84%.«В таких случаях всегда встает вопрос о том, какими могут быть ответные меры. Когда происходят торговые войны, можно ждать увеличения инфляции, так как предполагается, что цены будут расти», – сказал CEO Horizon Investment Services Чак Карлсон. Рост инфляции и доходности облигаций Казначейства США были главным фактором беспокойства на американском фондовом рынке в последний день февраля. Февраль стал очень турбулентным месяцем, а для индексов Dow Jones Industrial Average и S&P-500 он стал худшим месяцем за период после января 2016 года. По результатам торговой сессии четверга, Dow Jones Industrial Average упал на 1,68% до 24608,98, S&P 500 потерял 1,33% и остановился на отметке 2677,67, а Nasdaq Composite понизился на 1,27% до 7180,56.Глава ФРС Джером Пауэлл пытался смягчить тональность своих комментариев после сделанных во вторник заявлений, которые увеличили беспокойства на фондовом рынке касательно возможности четырех повышений процентных ставок в этом году вместо прогнозируемых ФРС трех повышений. В ходе выступления перед Банковским комитетом Сената, Пауэллсказал, что не видит признаков «перегрева» экономики США. Но глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли в ходе своего выступления в Бразилии высказался более резко, заявив, что четыре повышения ставок – это было бы «постепенным» ужесточением политики.Тем не менее, согласно комментариям ряда участников фондового рынка, в большей степени массовым продажам на рынке во второй половине дня поспопобствовала новость о введении новых пошлин. «Опасность, которую несет в себе введение этих пошлин, заключается в том, что они провоцируют ответные меры со стороны наших торговых партнеров, особенно Китая», – сказал главный инвестиционный стратег в американской компании Janney Montgomery Scott Марк Лучини. Вчера участники американского фондового рынка увидали призрак торговой войны, а торговые войны обычно мгновенно распространятся по всему миру. Успешных торгов!
New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley slammed protectionist actions as "destructive" to an economy. The speech came as President Trump is mulling tariffs on steel and aluminum.
New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley lambasted tariffs and other protectionist trade policies on Thursday.
Перед открытием рынка фьючерс S&P находится на уровне 2,709.75 (-0.17%), фьючерс NASDAQ снизился на 0.09% до уровня 6,858.75. Внешний фон негативный. Основные фондовые индексы Азии завершили сессию разнонаправленно. Основные фондовые индексы Европы на текущий момент демонстрируют негативную динамику. Nikkei 21,724.47 -343.77 -1.56% Hang Seng 31,044.25 +199.53 +0.65% Shanghai 3,273.76 +14.35 +0.44% S&P/ASX 5,973.30 -42.70 -0.71% FTSE 7,183.52 -48.39 -0.67% CAC 5,270.92 -49.57 -0.93% DAX 12,259.22 -176.63 -1.42% Апрельские нефтяные фьючерсы Nymex WTI в данный момент котируются по $61.26 за баррель (-0.62%) Золото торгуется по $1,307.30 за унцию (-0.80%) Фьючерсы на основные фондовые индексы США на премаркете демонстрируют незначительное снижение, так как инвесторы ожидают продолжения выступления председателя ФРС Джерома Пауэлла в Конгрессе. Сегодня глава американского центробанка выступит перед Банковским комитетом Сената. Напомним, во вторник Пауэлл заявил, что экономические ожидания улучшились со времени декабрьского заседания Комитета по открытым рынкам ФРС (FOMC). Этот комментарий спровоцировал распродажу на рынке акций, так как вновь всколыхнул опасения относительно ускорения темпов повышения ставок федрезервом. Пауэлл начнет свое выступление в 15:00 GMT. В фокусе внимания участников рынка также находятся данные по личным доходам/расходам потребителей за январь и еженедельная статистика по первичным обращениям за пособием по безработице. Как сообщило Министерства торговли США, личные доходы американцев выросли на 0.4% м/м в январе (против прогноза экономистов +0.3%) после повышения на 0.4% м/м в декабре. В то же время личные расходы увеличились на 0.2% м/м в январе (средний прогноз экономистов +0.2%) после роста на 0.4% в декабре. Отчет Министерства труда показал, что число американцев, подавших заявки на пособие по безработице, упало на прошлой неделе до самого низкого уровня с декабря 1969 года. Согласно отчету, первичные обращения за пособиями по безработице снизились на 10 000 до 210 000 человек за неделю, закончившуюся 24 февраля. Это является самым низким уровнем для данного показателя с недели, закончившейся 6 декабря 1969 года. Экономисты ожидали 226 000 новых заявок на прошлой неделе. Важных сообщений корпоративного характера, способных оказать влияние на динамику широкого рынка, на премаркете отмечено не было. После начала торгов влияние на их ход, помимо выступления Пауэлла, могут оказать данные по производственному индекс от ISM (15:00 GMT), а также выступление президента ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли (16:00 GMT).Источник: FxTeam
Authored by Nomi Prins via The Daily Reckoning, This month’s stock market correction is still fresh in everyone’s mind. Many have even begun to wonder if the era of dark money was truly over. How will the recent correction affect the Fed’s dark money policies? The consensus explanation for the correction was that inflation was rising and that would precipitate faster rate increases. The Feb. 2 unemployment report gave the impression that higher worker wages could lead to a higher inflationary trend. I don’t buy this at all. I believe these fears of inflation are overblown. As my colleague Jim Rickards has explained, the Feb. 2 report revealed that total weekly wages were actually declining and that labor force participation was unchanged. And the year-over-year gain in wages only seemed impressive compared with the extremely weak wage growth of recent years. After accounting for existing inflation, Jim argued, the real gain was only 0.9%. That’s weak relative to the 3% or even 4% real wage gains typically associated with economic expansions since the end of World War II. In short, Jim concludes, “the story about the “hot” economy with inflation right around the corner does not hold water.” I agree. Meanwhile, the latest report on U.S Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2017 was nothing to write home about. At 2.6% annual growth, it was 0.3% lower than expectations. That’s not the sign of an overheating economy. But those in the financial media considered it positive because it showed 2.80% growth in real personal consumption. But if you look beneath the surface, what you’d see is that consumers aren’t actually doing well across three core areas that “govern the ability of individuals to spend.” While the Fed would have you believe that real GDP rose by $421 billion over the past four quarters, the truth behind the numbers paint a very different picture. As analyst Michael Lebowitz notes, “If we adjust consumption to more normal levels of spending and credit usage, the increase in GDP is a mere 0.71%, hardly robust.” First, there’s income and wages. On that score, fourth quarter real disposable income only “grew at a 1.80% year over year rate.” The report found that “80% of workers continue to see flat to declining growth in their wages.” And last month the U.S savings rate fell to near its lowest recorded levels in the past 70 years. The only time it hovered so low was just before the recent financial crisis. Second, there’s credit card debt. Over the last four quarters it has increased by about 6% annually. That’s three times faster than its rate during the years following the financial crisis, and double the increase of income. What this means for those on Main Street is that they are keeping up with expenses by sinking into greater debt. What this also means is that the Fed’s massive injections of dark money since the financial crisis have not helped real people in the real economy. They’ve simply inflated a massive stock market bubble. Unfortunately, that reality is not going to stop them from perpetuating dark money policies. Despite the Fed’s “tough love” language, they don’t want markets diving. They are all too aware that media hyped, government constructed “growth” isn’t real. Before the stock market woes, there was widespread speculation the Fed would raise rates four times in 2018. Of course, once the correction happened, some at the Fed sprang to action to assure markets that the Fed was sticking to its game plan. William Dudley, president of New York Fed, characterized the recent stock market decline as “small potatoes” relative to its gains. Meanwhile, Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, who didn’t want a hike at the last meeting, said he would support “three or even four” rate increases this year. His statement was based on whether inflation really is moving up, and provides wiggle room for fewer hikes if it isn’t. There’s another way to interpret the comment that “the Fed is most likely to stay the course.” You can read that two ways; one, that hikes will continue as planned; and two, that if the Fed feels pressured they will pull the brakes on hiking rates. It’s all about market signals, not the real economy. But new Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has the most important opinion. And we have a good indication how he will act… He previously echoed outgoing Fed chair Janet Yellen’s caution against hiking rates too aggressively. Under Yellen’s leadership, the Fed kept rates near record lows and continued both a dark money-quantitative easing program. There’s no reason to expect he’ll change his views now. Wall Street and the financial markets are now daring Jerome Powell to reconsider any inclinations to raise rates more aggressively. The correction sent a clear warning against further tightening. What that means for you is that the Fed will be thinking twice going forward. They know the inflated stock market is all they have to show for all their efforts these past years. So you can expect the markets to continue receiving their injections of dark money if the market stumbles again. It’s the Fed’s only proven trick. So expect stock markets to move higher overall. Of course, there will be more volatility in the days ahead. The most common measure of market volatility is the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX. Last year, the VIX fell to a historic low of 8.56 in November. On Feb. 6, it hit a 2.5-year high of 50.30. After that, it dropped to 17.60. Today it’s back under 17. Volatility has hit junk bonds, emerging-market equities and Treasury bonds. In the Treasury market, 10-year yields hit four-year highs. And you can expect the bond market to also continue exhibiting more trauma on even the slightest rate hike rumors because the deluge of debt is not sustainable. The seesaw movement in the VIX indicates that this volatility of volatility is here for the long haul this year. Why? Because stocks are fundamentally being lifted on a steady diet of dark money. Based on the trends, expect this to become the new normal. This plays out in multiple versions. The clearest way is that every time dark money looks like it will be removed, the markets fall, and then when major central banks indicate that’s not really the case, markets rise again. While this may not be the end of the storm, expect rising volatility to present opportunities in the future. And there’s a lot more to come.
Paroling the Spanish Prisoner (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman The Making of Lehman Brothers II - Simon Johnson Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability - FRBSF Three questions for Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell - FT Options of Last Resort -...
That’s the title of a paper with David Greenlaw, Managing Director of Morgan Stanley, Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, and Kenneth West, professor of economics at the University of Wisconsin, which we presented at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum annual conference in New York on Friday. Assets […]
After a relatively quiet, holiday-shortened week, the coming five days are shaping up to be volatile and extremely busy on the political, data and speaker front, where a barrage of economic updates is set to hit in both the US and across the globe, while Fed Chair Jay Powell will dominate the highlights on Tuesday with his testimony before the House, the week will culminate on March 4 with the Italian election and the SPD "Grand Coalition" vote. On the political side, while many expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favour of a Grand Coalition in Germany, uncertainty remains high. Meanwhile, in the US, Fed chair Powell's testimony will be closely watched on Tuesday, as will Draghi's appearance in Brussels on Monday. Core inflation in the euro area should rise slightly while confidence should fall, while spending in the US could see a weak start to the year. In the US: Fed Chair Powell's first semi-annual monetary policy testimony is on Tues. The speech will likely have a similar tone as the FOMC minutes, noting that growth has picked up and the FOMC has become more convinced of continued momentum. Powell is expected to sound cautiously optimistic, reiterating the need for patience when it comes to the hiking cycle. This will not be the place for Powell to hint at 4 hikes for this year. Meanwhile, there are a number of data releases this week, with the most important being Thursday’s personal income report. Real spending may have posted a drop in January, which would get Q1 real GDP off to a weak start versus consensus expectations of a sustained 3% pace this year. Euro area: Italian and German politics to take the limelight away from muted inflation This week looks set to be a long wait for the Italian election and the German SPD vote on a new Grand Coalition on Sunday. While most analysts expect a hung parliament in Italy and a small majority in favour in Germany, uncertainty remains high. Euro area headline inflation is likely to continue to decrease for a third straight month to 1.2% yoy in February, which would be the trough this year. Otherwise, credit growth should accelerate above 3.0% yoy. United Kingdom: Finally, the Brexit plan? The long-awaited speech by the Prime Minister, finally spelling out the “Road to Brexit: A Future Partnership” will surely be delivered this week. It was originally scheduled for last week, but, like so many of the UK’s plans on Brexit, has been delayed. Time is running out. Trade talks are meant to start after the 22, 23 March EU summit. Emerging Markets: There are monetary policy meetings in Korea, Israel and Ukraine. Sovereign rating reviews in Romania and Lebanon. Real GDP releases in Brazil, India and Poland. Bloomberg highlights the key weekly events: ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels on Monday. Bank of Korea has policy decision and briefing on Tuesday. Powell testifies before a House panel on Tuesday. He’ll discuss the Fed’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and the state of the economy. Powell returns on March 1 before a Senate committee. Companies announcing earnings this week include: Vale, BASF, Standard Chartered, Bayer, Lowe’s, Galaxy Entertainment Group, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Peugeot, WPP, and London Stock Exchange Group. U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech on Britain’s relationship with the European Union after Brexit. A barrage of data is expected out of Japan including retail sales and industrial production Wednesday, and capital spending Thursday. In China, the official and Caixin purchasing managers’ indexes on Wednesday and Thursday respectively may show growth momentum slowed slightly in February, though the signal may be clouded by the holidays. Deutsche Bank with its usual breakdown of key daily events: Monday: We start the week with the UK’s January Finance loans for housing. Across the pond, the January Chicago Fed National activity, February Dallas Fed manufacturing index and new home sales data are also due. Onto other events, the ECB’s Draghi will addresses the EU Parliament while the incoming ECB VP Mr De Guindos will also attend his confirmation hearing at the Parliament. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Coeure, BOE’s Cunliffe and the Fed’s Bullard will speak. The UK’s opposition leader Corbyn is expected to set out the Labour Party’s Brexit position today with the party set to announce that they would stay in the Customs Union. This will cause problems for Mrs May who has said the country will leave. Parliament is generally in favour of staying so this raises the possibility of a lost vote somewhere down the line. Tuesday: Germany’s flash February CPI and the Euro area’s money supply and credit aggregates are due. Then a range of February confidence indicators are due for the Euro area, France and Italy. In the US, the February Richmond Fed and CB consumer confidence index are due. Further, a range of data including: January advanced goods trade balance, wholesale and retail inventories, durable and capital goods orders along with the December FHFA and S&P corelogic house price index are also due. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell testifies in front of the House Financial services committee. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Weidmann and Mersch as well as BOE’s Sam Woods will speak. The Brookings Institution will host a conversation with the former Fed Governor Yellen and Bernanke. Finally, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief European affairs ministers. Wednesday: Overnight, Japan’s January IP and retail sales along with China’s February composite and manufacturing PMI will be out. In early morning, the GfK consumer confidence index for the UK (Feb.) and Germany (March) are also due. Later on, the flash February CPI readings for the Euro area, France and Italy will also be out. Elsewhere, France’s January PPI and 4Q GDP along with Germany’s February unemployment rate are also due. In the US, the February Chicago PMI, second reading on the 4Q GDP and Core PCE as well the January pending home sales data will be due. Onto other events, the EU negotiator Barnier will brief permanent EU representatives on Brexit and the withdrawal text is also expected to be published. Thursday: In Asia, the February manufacturing PMI for Japan (Nikkei) and China (Caixin) along with Japan’s consumer confidence index will be due. Then the final readings on February manufacturing PMIs across Europe are also due. Elsewhere, the Euro area and Italy January unemployment rate will be out. In the UK, the January net consumer credit lending and mortgage approvals along with the February flash manufacturing PMI are all due. In the US, a range of data will be out, including: January PCE Core, February ISM manufacturing index, personal income and spending, weekly initial jobless claims and continuing claims. Onto other events, the Fed’s Powell is back again in front of the US Senate while the US Transportation Secretary Ms Chao also testifies before the Senate on Trump’s infrastructure plan. The ECB’s Nouy and Lane along with the BOJ’s Kataoka will speak. Elsewhere, senior officials from Euro area finance ministries discuss the banking union and the future role of the ESM. Friday: Overnight, Japan’s January unemployment rate and February CPI will be out. Then the Euro area’s January PPI, Germany retail sales and the final reading for Italy’s 4Q GDP are due. In the US, the final reading for the February Uni. of Michigan’s consumer sentiment will also be out. Onto other events, the BOE’s Carney and the ECB’s Mersch will speak. The UK’s PM May is expected to outline her vision for a post Brexit trade deal with the EU. Then on Saturday, China’s annual national legislative meetings will start and expected to run for two more weeks. Finally, here is Goldman with a detailed look at the key US events together with consensus estimates: The key economic releases this week are the second vintage of Q4 GDP on Wednesday and ISM manufacturing on Thursday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including Chair Powell’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress on Tuesday and Thursday. Monday, February 26 08:00 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speaks: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will give a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at the 34th annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, January (GS +4.0%, consensus +3.6%, last -9.3%): We expect new home sales to rebound 4.0% in January, following a 9.3% drop last month that we believe was partially weather-related. We expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the solid trend in single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. 10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, February (consensus +30.0, last +33.4) 03:15 PM Vice Chair for Supervision Quarles (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Randal Quarles will give a speech titled “An Assessment of the U.S. Economy” at the 34th annual NABE Economic Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. Q&A is expected. Tuesday, February 27 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, January preliminary (GS -1.3%, consensus -2.5%, last +2.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, January preliminary (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Core capital goods orders, January preliminary (GS +0.9%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.6%); Core capital goods shipments, January preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus flat, last +0.4%): We estimate durable goods orders fell 1.3% in January, reflecting a sharp pullback in commercial aircraft orders. However, we expect the core measures to firm, reflecting the timing of the Chinese New Year and the scope for core orders to rebound. Industrial production of the capex-sensitive business equipment was also quite strong in January. 08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Report on Advance Economic Indicators; Advanced goods trade balance, January (GS -$71.0bn, consensus -$72.0bn, last -$72.3bn); Wholesale inventories, January preliminary (last +0.4%): We expect the goods trade deficit to narrow $1.3bn to $71.0bn in January, reflecting a pullback in imports related to the relatively late Chinese New Year, which is likely shifting the timing of imports from January to February/March and could also pull forward some capital goods exports. 09:00 AM S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, December (GS +1.0%, consensus +0.6%, last +0.7%): We expect the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to rise 1.0% in the December report following a 0.7% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which climbed to 6.4% in November. 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, December (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% month-over-month, in line with the December pace. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose at a 6.5% pace in November. 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell appears before the House Financial Services Committee: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the House Financial Services Committee in the first of two days of testimony to deliver the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and answer questions from lawmakers. The text of his prepared remarks will be released at 8:30 AM ahead of his testimony. 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, February (GS 127.0, consensus 126.0, last 125.4); We expect consumer confidence to move up 1.6pt to 127.0 in February. Our forecast reflects encouraging consumer sentiment measures in February as well as a rebound in the stock market. 10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing index, February (consensus +15, last +14) Wednesday, February 28 08:30 AM GDP (second), Q4 (GS +2.4%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.6%); Personal consumption, Q4 (GS +3.7%, consensus +3.6%, last 3.8%): We expect a two-tenths downward revision in the second estimate of Q4 GDP to +2.4%, featuring a one tenth downward revision to personal consumption (to +3.7%) and additional downward revisions to government spending and exports. 09:45 AM Chicago PMI, February (GS 65.5, consensus 65.0, last 65.7); We expect the Chicago PMI to decline 0.2pt to 65.5 after moving down 2.1pt in the January report. Our above-consensus forecast reflects the mixed performance of manufacturing surveys balanced against firmer business confidence reports and encouraging commentary from industrial firms. 10:00 AM Pending home sales, January (GS flat, consensus +0.4%, last +0.5%): Regional housing data released so far were mixed in January. We estimate pending home sales were flat in January, and we note the current level looks elevated relative to other home sales measures. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag. Thursday, March 1 8:30 AM Personal income, January (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, January (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); PCE price index, January (GS +0.39%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, January (GS +0.30%, consensus +0.3, last +0.2%); PCE price index (yoy), January (GS +1.7%, consensus +1.7%, last +1.7%); Core PCE price index (yoy), January (GS +1.5%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.5%): Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we forecast that the core PCE price index rose +0.30% month-over-month in January, which would leave the year-over-year rate unchanged at 1.5%. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index increased 0.39% in January, or 1.7% from a year earlier. We forecast a 0.3% increase in January personal income and a 0.2% gain in personal spending. 09:45 AM Markit US Manufacturing PMI, February (last 55.9) 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended February 24 (GS 225k, consensus 226k, last 222k): Continuing jobless claims, week ended February 17 (consensus 1,915k, last 1,875k); We estimate initial jobless claims moved back up 3k to 225k in the week ended February 24, after a sizeable decline in the prior week. The trend in initial claims appears to be falling, and we look for another low reading. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined sharply by 73k in the prior week. 10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, February (GS 59.2, consensus 59.0, last 59.1): Regional manufacturing surveys were mixed in February, and we expect ISM manufacturing to tick up to 59.2 in the February report. The Philly Fed (+3.6pt to 25.8) and Kansas City Fed (+1pt to 17) manufacturing sector surveys both strengthened while the Empire State manufacturing survey pulled back (-4.6pt to 13.1). On net, our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—edged down 0.3pt to 58.7. 10:00 AM Construction spending, January (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.7%): We expect construction spending to increase 0.6% in February, following a 0.7% increase in December that reflected stronger total private construction and public nonresidential construction activity. 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell appears before the Senate Banking Committee: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee in the second day of testimony to deliver the Fed’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress and answer questions from lawmakers. 11:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech on trade and globalization at an event hosted by the Central Bank of Brazil. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:00 PM Total vehicle sales, February (GS 17.3mn, consensus 17.2mn, last 17.1mn): Domestic vehicle sales, February (consensus 13.2mn, last 13.1mn) Friday, March 2 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, February final (GS 100.0, consensus 99.0, last 99.9): We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge up 0.1pt to 100 in the February final estimate, reflecting continued improvement among more timely measures of consumer confidence as well as the favorable stock market performance over the last two weeks. The University of Michigan’s survey of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations was stable at 2.5% in the preliminary February report. Source: SocGen, Deutsche bank, BofA, Goldman
В пятницу, 23 февраля, ожидается публикация небольшого количества важной для валютного рынка статистики. В 02:30 МСК любителям йены советуем обратить внимание на индекс потребительских цен и базовый индекс потребительских цен Японии за январь. С прогнозами по этим и другим показателям Вы можете ознакомиться на нашем сайте в разделе "Календарь статистики". В 10:00 МСК выйдут окончательные данные по ВВП Германии за четвертый квартал. Ожидается, что темпы роста показателя были пересмотрены с 0,7% к/к до 0,6% к/к и с 2,8% г/г до 2,9% г/г. В 13:00 МСК появятся окончательные данные по индексу потребительских цен еврозоны за январь. Согласно прогнозам, показатель увеличился на 1,3% г/г, но снизился на 0,9% м/м. Кроме того, сегодня выступят Уильям Дадли (в 18:15 МСК), Лоретта Местер (в 21:30 МСК) и Джон Уильямс (в 23:40 МСК).
В руководстве Федеральной резервной системы рассматривают возможность использования отрицательных процентных ставок, в случае если американская экономика вновь столкнется с серьезным кризисом.