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Уильям Дадли
19 января, 08:32

Йеллен vs Трамп: битва за доллар

Противостояние Дональда Трампа и Джанет Йеллен началось еще задолго до выборов в США. Сейчас, когда до инаугурации избранного президента остается всего один день, эта битва гигантов становится как никогда актуальной.

19 января, 08:32

Йеллен vs Трамп: битва за доллар

Противостояние Дональда Трампа и Джанет Йеллен началось еще задолго до выборов в США. Сейчас, когда до инаугурации избранного президента остается всего один день, эта битва гигантов становится как никогда актуальной.

17 января, 20:26

США: комментарии Трампа обеспокоили рынок акций

Во вторник, 17 января, фондовый рынок Соединенных Штатов в первой половине торговой сессии демонстрирует умеренно негативную динамику основных индексов. Инвесторов насторожили комментарии Дональда Трампа одному из изданий – по словам будущего президента США, курс доллара "слишком высок", а Китай поддерживает низкий курс юаня и тем самым "убивает" американский бизнес. Экспрессивные изречения Трампа доставили инвестиционному сообществу определенный дискомфорт, вылившийся в просадку индексов даже несмотря на то, что после биржевых выходных (вчера в США был государственный праздник) акции обычно укрепляются. "Вербальная интервенция" Трампа также оказала давление на объект его комментариев – долларовый индекс резко просел. Стоит отметить, что президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли сегодня также высказался о минусах сильного доллара и о не слишком высокой важности инфляции как показателя в принятии решений по монетарной политике.

17 января, 20:24

Дадли: ФРС не откажется трех повышений ставки в 2017

Приглушенная динамика инфляции и экономического роста означает, что ФРС США вряд ли откажется от агрессивного повышения процентных ставок, заявил президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.

17 января, 20:24

Дадли: ФРС не откажется 3-х повышений ставки в 2017

Приглушенная динамика инфляции и экономического роста означают, что ФРС США вряд ли отменит откажется от агрессивного повышения процентных ставок, заявил президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли.

Выбор редакции
17 января, 16:48

Dollar pares losses after comments from New York Fed President William Dudley

This is a Real-time headline. These are breaking news, delivered the minute it happens, delivered ticker-tape style. Visit www.marketwatch.com or the quote page for more information about this breaking news.

17 января, 15:57

Рубль обновляет очередные максимумы с 2015 года - "Открытие Брокер"

"Рубль обновляет очередные максимумы с 2015 года. К середине московских торгов баррель Brent стоил около 3335 рублей. Однодневная ставка MosPrime подросла до 10,37% при сохранении недельной ставки на уровне 10,42% и снижении недельной ставки до 10,46%. Это явно указывает на дефицит краткосрочной ликвидности. К тому же в МЭР ожидают, что к концу января инфляция замедлится до 5,0-5,2%, что повышает актуальность действий со стороны ЦБ РФ. Если же снижение ставки станет очевидным, это обеспечит новый приток спекулятивных средств на рынок ОФЗ и, соответственно, дальнейшую поддержку отечественной валюте. К 15:18 мск валютная пара USD/RUB снизилась на 1,15% - до 59,18, EUR/RUB — на 0,28% - до 63,3. В 16:30 мск будет обнародован индекс деловой активности ФРБ Нью-Йорка или Empire State Index, в 16:45 мск выступает глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли. Вечерний отрезок торгов может оказаться достаточно бурным. Движения в валютах в течение дня были весьма существенными. Вербальная политика остаётся главным двигателем волатильности на рынках", - комментирует ситуацию аналитик "Открытие Брокер" Андрей Кочетков.

17 января, 10:35

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 13:45 GMT Член FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью В 15:00 GMT Министр финансов Джейкоб Лью выступит c речью В 15:00 GMT Член FOMC Лайель Брайнард выступит с речью В 15:00 GMT Премьер-министр Тереза Мэй выступит с речью В 23:00 GMT Член FOMC Джон Уильямс выступит с речью Ежегодный мировой экономический форум в Давосе. День 1 Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

17 января, 00:30

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

Во вторник, 17 января, ожидается публикация нескольких отслеживаемых нами показателей. Так, в 07:30 МСК будут опубликованы окончательные ноябрьские данные по промышленному производству Японии. Стоит отметить, что, по предварительным данным, показатель вырос на 1,5%. В 12:30 МСК любителям британского фунта стоит обратить внимание на информацию по инфляции в Великобритании за декабрь. Мы ожидаем, что индекс потребительских цен вырос на 0,3% м/м после повышения на 0,2% м/м месяцем ранее, а в годовом исчислении повысился на 1,4% при росте на 1,2% г/г в ноябре. В 14:00 МСК состоится выступление члена совета управляющих ЕЦБ Эвальда Новотны, которое может оказать влияние на динамику евро. Тем временем, в США в 16:45 МСК выступит с речью представитель ФРС Уильям Дадли. Также в течение дня свою речь представит премьер-министр Великобритании Тереза Мэй, на слова которой в последнее время фунт стерлинга реагирует особенно чутко.

16 января, 16:43

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead promises to be a full one, with a plethora of events coming up. The Word Economic Forum in Davos could generate some headlines, with particular focus on Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will be the first Chinese president to attend. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech, while of course Friday marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. We will also be keeping a weather eye out for the Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for its announcement. Central Banks: ECB and BOC No policy change is expected from either the ECB or the BoC, but both press conferences will draw attention, particularly that of President Draghi. The market is convinced that Draghi will do his best to be boring. China Economic Update There is a barrage of Chinese data out on Friday, where the most closely followed number will be China's Real GDP for 4Q will be released in China, as well as IP, retail sales, FAI and December property prices. On Monday, Xi Jinping said China's 2016 GDP is expected to be 6.7%. US: CPI, Industrial Production, Housing, Trump Inauguration There is a busy US calendar ahead, with CPI, Empire Manufacturing, industrial production, housing data and Philly Fed reports. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including two by Chair Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday. The Beige Book for the January FOMC period will be released on Wednesday. The week culminates in the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Cabinet confirmation hearings will also be continuing during the week. Eurozone and UK In the Eurozone, the ECB will be the main event, with the German ZEW and final inflation prints the only data releases of note. In the UK, there is an important week ahead with Theresa May’s speech on Brexit the main focus, but also releases of inflation data, retail sales and the labor market report. Keep an eye out out for the UK Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for the release. Others In Japan, we get machine orders, PPI, tertiary industry index, the final print of November IP and a speech from the BoJ’s Nakaso. In Australia, labor force data is the key release in the week ahead, while housing finance approvals and consumer confidence in both Australia and New Zealand will also be of interest. In Canada, focus will be on the BoC monetary policy meeting, but we also get CPI and retail sales data. It  should be a very quiet week ahead in Switzerland and the Scandies, although we do hear from Norges Bank Governor Olsen, and of course Switzerland hosts the WEF in Davos. There will be monetary policy meetings in Chile, Malaysia and Indonesia. Earnings Earnings will also be in the spotlight with Morgan Stanley tomorrow, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Netflix on Wednesday, IBM on Thursday and Schlumberger and General Electric on Friday due. Davos And Trump Away from that world leaders will also congregate in Davos this week for the World Economic Forum while UK PM Theresa May is due to outline Brexit plans on Tuesday. Clearly the other big focus this week is the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on Friday. * * * A look at key events by day courtesy of DB: With markets closed in the US today for Martin Luther King Day it’s an unsurprisingly quiet start to the week with just the Euro area trade balance reading in November due. Tuesday kicks off in Japan where industrial production data is due. In Europe there will be plenty of focus on the ECB’s bank lending survey due early on, while the December inflation report in the UK will also be under the spotlight. The January ZEW survey for Germany is also due out. Over in the US tomorrow the only data due out is the January Empire manufacturing print. Turning to Wednesday, Germany and the Euro area will release the final revisions  to December CPI reports while the UK will release the latest labour market data. Over in the US inflation data will also be the focus with the December report due out. Industrial and manufacturing production, as well as the NAHB housing market index will also be due. With little else of note on Thursday morning the main focus will be on the ECB policy meeting. In the US we’ll get housing starts and building permits data as well initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook print. It’s a blockbuster end to the week in China on Friday with the Q4 GDP print due along with December activity indicators including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. During the European session we’ll get PPI in Germany and retail sales in the UK. There’s nothing of note in the US on Friday except for Trump's inauguration of course. There’s also plenty of Fedspeak this week. Both Dudley and Williams are scheduled to speak tomorrow, before Kashkari and Yellen speak on Wednesday. The latter is taking part in a discussion at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco however is also expected to give an economic assessment. The Fed Chair then speaks again on Friday, along with Harker and Williams. The ECB’s Villeroy and Praet also speak today along with the BoE’s Carney while we’ll also get the usual ECB press conference on Thursday. * * * Finally, here is a full breakdown of just US events, together with consensus estimates, courtesy of Goldman Sachs The key economic release this week is CPI on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including two by Chair Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday. The Beige Book for the January FOMC period will be released on Wednesday. Monday, January 16 US markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. There will be no economic data releases. Tuesday, January 17 08:45 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give a speech on “Evolving Consumer Behavior: A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York” at an event sponsored by the National Retail Federation. 08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, January (consensus +8.5, last +9.0) 10:00 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Monetary Policy” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 06:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote speech at the Sacramento Business Review Economic Forecast at Sacramento State University in California. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Wednesday, January 18 08:30 AM CPI (mom), December (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.30%, last +0.20%); Core CPI (mom), December (GS +0.20%, consensus +0.20%, last +0.15%); CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.7%); Core CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.1%): We expect that core CPI rose by 0.20% in December or 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. In the November report, core inflation was softer than expected, mainly due to lower inflation in the categories of apparel, medical care, airfares, and lodging away from home. We expect some payback in the apparel category, in part related to colder-than-average December temperatures. Headline consumer prices likely increased by 0.29% in December. On a year-over-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 2.1%. 09:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a panel discussion on “Confidence in Uncertain Times”. Media and audience Q&A is expected. President Kaplan is a voting member of the FOMC this year. 09:15 AM Industrial production, December (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.4%): Manufacturing production, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.1%); Capacity utilization, December (GS 75.8%, consensus 75.4%, last 75.0%): We expect industrial production to rebound by 1.1% in the December report following two months of weakness, based on our expectation of a rebound in the weather-sensitive utilities category. 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, January (consensus 69, last 70): Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—to tick down to 69, though still near post-crisis highs. 11:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on economic opportunity and inclusive growth at an event hosted by the Minneapolis Urban League. Audience and media Q&A is expected. President Kashkari will be a voting member on the FOMC this year. 02:00 PM Beige Book, January-February FOMC meeting period: The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The December Beige Book reported modestly slower activity in a few districts, stronger consumer spending and residential investment, and mixed manufacturing activity. In the January-February Beige Book, we will look for additional anecdotes related to the state of manufacturing activity, price inflation, and wage growth. 03:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech on “The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them” in front of the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected. 04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows (last +$18.8bn) Thursday, January 19 08:30 AM Housing starts, December (GS +12.0%, consensus +8.6%, last -18.7%); Building permits, December (consensus +1.1%, last -3.8%): We expect housing starts to rebound 12% in December, following a 19% drop in November led by the volatile multifamily category. Despite colder-than-usual December temperatures, favorable single-family fundamentals and a rising backlog of approved permits suggest scope for a meaningful rebound. Consensus expects a more modest rise of 8.6% for housing starts and looks for a 1.1% increase in building permits. 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 14 (GS 265k, consensus 251k, last 247k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 7 (last 2,087k): We expect initial jobless claims to rebound 18k to 265k, following two consecutive readings not far from the cycle low. We remain in a period where seasonal adjustment is difficult, and we are hesitant to infer a drop in the trend pace of layoffs based on the most recent two reports. Seasonality-related uncertainty will affect the data for at least two more weeks, and accordingly, confidence around our 265k forecast is low. The drop in initial claims has not yet been mirrored in continuing claims, which have actually risen relative to the levels in early December (as of the week ending December 31). 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, January (GS +16.0, consensus +16.0, last +19.7): We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to pull back to +16.0 following last month’s increase to +19.7, remaining at levels signaling expansion in manufacturing activity. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducted its annual historical revision and calculation of new seasonal adjustment factors. For December, the index was revised down modestly to +19.7 from +21.5. 10:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote address at the Solano Economic Development Corporation’s Annual Luncheon Meeting in Fairfield, California. Audience Q&A is expected. 08:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech on the economic outlook and US monetary policy at an event hosted by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Audience Q&A is expected. Friday, January 20 09:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will participate in a discussion on the economic outlook at the New Jersey Bankers Association’s 6th Annual NJ Economic Leadership Forum. Media Q&A is expected. Last week, President Harker reiterated his support for three rate hikes this year. 01:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give closing remarks at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute’s 10th Annual Economic Forecast event in San Francisco. Audience Q&A is expected. Remarks will likely be similar to those from his speaking engagement on Tuesday. Source: BofA, DB, Goldman

16 января, 13:44

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

Во вторник, 17 января, ожидается публикация нескольких отслеживаемых нами показателей. Так, в 07:30 МСК будут опубликованы окончательные ноябрьские данные по промышленному производству Японии. Стоит отметить, что, по предварительным данным, показатель вырос на 1,5%. В 12:30 МСК любителям британского фунта стоит обратить внимание на информацию по инфляции в Великобритании за декабрь. Мы ожидаем, что индекс потребительских цен вырос на 0,3% м/м после повышения на 0,2% м/м месяцем ранее, а в годовом исчислении повысился на 1,4% при росте на 1,2% г/г в ноябре. В 14:00 МСК состоится выступление члена совета управляющих ЕЦБ Эвальда Новотны, которое может оказать влияние на динамику евро. Тем временем, в США в 16:45 МСК выступит с речью представитель ФРС Уильям Дадли. Также в течение дня свою речь представит премьер-министр Великобритании Тереза Мэй, на слова которой в последнее время фунт стерлинга реагирует особенно чутко.

11 января, 18:28

All Eye On Trump

All Eye On Trump

11 января, 18:07

Market Awaits Speeches Aplenty

President-elect Trump and NY Fed President Dudley will address finance reform today, and tomorrow we hear from 4 more Fed officials plus Fed Chair Yellen.

11 января, 14:27

Сегодня в США ожидается пресс-конференция Трампа

В среду, 11 января, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 18:30 МСК нам предстоит узнать недельные данные по запасам нефти, рассчитываемые EIA. Согласно прогнозам, показатель увеличился на 1,162 млн баррелей после снижения на 7,051 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить ряд показателей по ипотечному рынку, а также недельную динамику запасов бензина и дистиллятов. Кроме того, сегодня состоится первая большая пресс-конференция избранного президента США Дональда Трампа, а в 21:20 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Нью-Йрка Уильям Дадли. К 14:12 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повышением на 0,02%.

11 января, 10:15

Сегодня в США ожидается пресс-конференция Трампа

В среду, 11 января, в Соединенных Штатах Америки ожидается публикация лишь одного важного макроэкономического показателя. Так, в 18:30 МСК нам предстоит узнать недельные данные по запасам нефти, рассчитываемые EIA. Согласно прогнозам, показатель увеличился на 1,162 млн баррелей после снижения на 7,051 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Из второстепенной статистики можно отметить ряд показателей по ипотечному рынку, а также недельную динамику запасов бензина и дистиллятов. Кроме того, сегодня состоится первая большая пресс-конференция избранного президента США Дональда Трампа, а в 21:20 МСК выступит глава ФРБ Нью-Йрка Уильям Дадли. К 14:12 МСК фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 торгуются с повышением на 0,02%.

11 января, 10:07

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 10:30 GMT Германия проведет аукцион по продаже 10-летних бондов В 14:15 GMT Губернатор Банка Англии Марк Карни выступит с речью В 16:00 GMT Президент Дональд Трамп выступит с речью В 18:01 GMT США проведет аукцион по продаже 10-летних бондов В 18:20 GMT Член FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

11 января, 00:30

Статистика. Что сегодня ожидать?

В среду, 11 января, ожидается публикация небольшого количества важной для валютного рынка статистики. В 12:30 МСК будет опубликовано сразу два показателя, на которые советуем обратить внимание любителям британского фунта стерлингов. Так, в это время станет известно сальдо торгового баланса Великобритании за ноябрь, а также ноябрьская динамика промышленного производства страны. Согласно нашим прогнозам, дефицит торгового баланса увеличился с 9,711 млрд фунтов стерлингов в октябре до 11,20 млрд фунтов в ноябре, а промышленное производство, скорее всего, возросло на 0,8% м/м и 0,6% г/г. В 18:30 МСК появится недельная динамика по запасам нефти от EIA. Ожидается, что запасы "черного золота" поднялись на 1,162 млн баррелей после снижения на 7,051 млн баррелей неделей ранее. Кроме того, сегодня состоится первая большая пресс-конференция избранного президента США Дональда Трампа, а в 21:20 МСК выступит представитель ФРС Уильям Дадли.

20 декабря 2016, 21:34

Hawkish Fed Dot Plot Adds Fuel To Recent Market Trends

The Federal Reserve followed script this week by raising interest rates, but added fuel to recent bond weakness and dollar strength with a more-hawkish-than-expected monetary policy forecast for 2017. By the time the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision rolled around Thursday, a rate hike was priced into markets. Implied probability of a 25 basis point increase was 100% and odds of a 50 basis point rise had even climbed to 10%. The only remaining question pertained to the Fed's dot plot. Long-term rate projections had been falling steadily since 2012, but a rise in inflation expectations following Donald Trump's election victory led to speculation about a faster pace of tightening. Indeed, the committee elected to increase its forecast from two hikes to three hikes in 2017, also raising its long-run rate to 3.2%. When the Fed hiked the Fed Funds Rate last December, the market's reaction was muted. This time around, the fallout in bond and foreign exchange markets was much more significant. By the end of the day Thursday the Dollar Index had surged more than 1%, taking its gains in the last three quarters of 2016 to more than 9%. Yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury climbed another 15 basis points to 2.60% (where it closed Friday). Early in the week, the dollar and bond yields were retreating after three U.S. central bankers--New York, Chicago and St. Louis Fed Presidents William Dudley, Charles Evans and James Bullard--expressed hesitancy about the pace of future rate hikes given uncertainty regarding the new administration's economic policies. However, Thursday's hawkish turn by the Fed--an aberration in post-crisis monetary policy--exacerbated recent post-election trends. Contributing to that sentiment was discussion about the eventual reduction in size of the Fed's balance sheet. In the FOMC statement and post-decision press conference, Chairwoman Yellen took a victory lap on the strength of the U.S. economy. "It's important for households and businesses to understand that my colleagues and I have judged the course of the U.S. economy to be strong. We have a strong labor market and we have a resilient economy," she said. While refusing to comment specifically on the president-elect's agenda, Yellen said the economy might not even need significant fiscal policy anymore to reach achieve full employment and the Fed's 2% inflation target. "There may be some additional slack in labor markets, but I would judge that the degree of slack has diminished. So I would say at this point that fiscal policy is not obviously needed to provide stimulus to help us get back to full employment," she said. Perhaps the only surprise in the market's post-decision reaction was the resilience of U.S. stocks. An exceptionally strong dollar poses two main risks to the American economy: 1) hurts exports and erodes profits for U.S. multinationals, and 2) Raises dollar-denominated funding costs worldwide, especially concerning for emerging markets. Only in 1999 and 1984 have we seen a persistently strong dollar and strong risk appetite harmoniously co-exist. DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach believes this is just the beginning of the sell-off in U.S. treasuries. In a webcast Tuesday on his firm's flagship Total Return Bond Fund, Gundlach said he believes 10-year yields will top 3% next year, which would "start to have a real impact on market liquidity in corporate bonds and junk bonds" and "bring into question some of the aspects of the stock market and of the housing market in particular." While his portfolio still has a shorter duration and less risk than the benchmark Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, Gundlach said he has started to increase the average duration of his holdings since July. The Fed adjusted its policy outlook based on still-hypothetical future growth and inflation. In the first quarter of 2017 we'll get better indications about whether that decision was justified. Italy's Caretaker Government Faces Decision On Bank Bailouts Italy's beleaguered banks, under a caretaker government, continue to pursue last-gasp efforts to avoid state-sponsored bailouts. Italian President Sergio Mattarella tapped Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni to take the reins as prime minister following Matteo Renzi's post-referendum resignation, with fresh elections on hold until the legislature adopts a new electoral law. The new government's most urgent priority is finding a solution to rescue the country's debt-laden banks. On Tuesday, Unicredit, Italy's largest bank, unveiled its long-anticipated recapitalization plan. It will attempt to raise 13 billion euros while shedding 17.7 billion euros worth of bad loans (more than expected) and cutting an additional 6,500 jobs (bringing the total to 14,000). Investors liked the plan, with Unicredit stock rallying 16%, the most in six years (although it is still down 44% on the year). Fortress Investment Group and Pimco are taking majority stakes in the units buying the portfolio of non-performing loans. Unicredit also raised additional Tier 1 capital by announcing the sale of asset manager Pioneer to Amundi for 3.5 billion euros. While analysts give Unicredit a reasonable chance of avoiding state aid, Monte Dei Paschi (MPS) is in much more dire straits. Europe's oldest bank insists it will plow ahead with a 5 billion euro private capital raise, which it must complete in the next two weeks after regulators rejected its request for an extension. MPS shares rallied 8% on the news, but observers remain highly pessimistic about a successful private rescue. Qatar Investment Authority, the anchor tenant of Monte Dei Paschi's equity offering, has refused to comment on its plans. On Thursday, reports reemerged that Italian officials are preparing to inject public capital into MPS, in addition to other regional banks. The caretaker government has apparently drafted an emergency decree allowing for state aid as part of a so-called precautionary capital increase. An official announcement is expected next week. If the Italian government can kick the can down the road with a rescue plan for its troubled banking system, it would provide an additional bullish input for resurgent global markets. Strong Dollar Sends Chinese Assets Tumbling China was among the biggest losers in the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy forecast. Immediately following Thursday's announcement Chinese government bond futures fell to their daily loss limit (with 10-year government debt yield surging 22 basis points, the most on record) and the yuan testing eight year lows versus the dollar (to the key psychological of level of 7 CNY/USD). China's benchmark equity index finished the week down 3.5%. Dollar appreciation makes it more expensive for China to prop up the yuan and for companies to service their massive debt pile. The latest greenback rally could trigger additional capital outflows despite recent preventive measures. Calls continue to grow louder for a large one-time renminbi devaluation, but the government is prioritizing economic stability ahead of next year's Communist Party Politburo. By some measures, their plan is working. In November, retail sales grew 10.8% and industrial production rose 6.2%, while for the first 11 months of the year fixed-asset investment climbed 8.3% (all greater than expected). However, risks could also be rising as November brought a surprise increase in shadow banking activity. Shadow credit, the shifting of liabilities to more opaque securities like trust loans and bank-acceptance bills, skyrocketed to 479 billion yuan after having fallen to 55 billion in October. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has promised better oversight of off-balance-sheet wealth management products, but again faces a dilemma between liberalization and stability. Ironically (given the rhetoric of the U.S. president-elect), the yuan right now is the most expensive trade-weighted currency in the world. The centrally-planned economy has so far been able to avert a hard landing, but if the dollar continues to strengthen, Beijing could have to call an audible on its multi-decade economic playbook. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

12 декабря 2016, 23:36

Fed Watch: December FOMC Preview

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