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24 марта, 19:38

Глава ФРБ Сент-Луиса не видит необходимости спешить с подъемом ставки в США

Председатель Федерального резервного банка (ФРБ) Сент-Луиса Джеймс Баллард не видит необходимости в агрессивном ужесточении кредитно-денежной политики Федрезервом.

24 марта, 12:40

Голосование по Obamacare отложено в связи с разногласиями республиканцев

Влияние на рынок:2Devata TsengГолосование по первому законопроекту Трампа об отмене и замене Obamacare новой системой медицинского страхования в США было внезапно перенесено с вечера четверга на пятницу в связи с серьёзными разногласиями внутри республиканской партии. Президент Трамп и республиканские лидеры пытаются убедить больше республиканцев поддержать новый законопроект. Тем не менее, похоже, что будет достаточно сложно развернуть ситуацию за короткий период. Трамп заявлял, что в случае провала отмены, он может оставить Obamacare (что идёт полностью вразрез с его предвыборными обещаниями). Партия республиканцев удерживает большинство в Конгрессе США, Палате представителей и Сенате. Демократическое меньшинство будет голосовать против законопроекта. Чтобы его утвердить, понадобится, по меньшей мере, 215 голосов из 430 текущих членов. Таким образом, максимальное количество “отступников” в партии ограничено 22 голосами из 237 представителей республиканцев. Индекс доллара колебался в диапазоне 99.30 – 99.80 в течение последних трёх дней. Если законопроект провалится, рынки потеряют доверие к администрации Трампа и его политическим намерениям (снижение налогов и реформа регуляции), что определённо скажется на долларе и американских акциях. Индекс доллара, вероятно, будет снижаться и протестирует важный уровень поддержки на 99.00. Председатель ФРС Йеллен выступила в четверг на Community Development Research. Неожиданно она в основном говорила о финансовом образовании детей и подростков, ничего не упоминая о денежно-кредитной политике и/или экономических перспективах. Президент ФРБ Далласа Роберт Каплан (голосующий член FOMC) заявил в четверг, что ФРС следует потенциально серьёзно задуматься об отказе от мягкой монетарной политики, так как американская экономика все же прогрессирует, условия на рынке труда улучшаются, и это указывает на три повышения процентных ставок в этом году”. С учётом всего сказанного, ФРС, вероятно, повысит процентные ставки дважды до конца этого года. И напротив, президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса Нил Кашкари (голосующий член FOMC) заявил, что “инфляция остаётся ниже целей ФРС”. Он был единственным противником повышения ставок FOMC на прошлой неделе. Шотландский парламент отложил утверждение второго шотландского референдума по независимости в связи с террористической атакой в Лондоне. Голосование было отложено до вторника 28 марта, таким образом, оно пройдёт всего за день до официального запуска процесса Brexit. В связи с этим можно ожидать роста волатильности по фунту и кроссам с валютой в течение этого периода. Сегодня мы увидим публикацию статистики по объёму заказов на товары длительного пользования в США, а также базовым заказам на товары длительного пользования за февраль вместе с индексом потребительских цен в Канаде, а также базовым индексом CPI за февраль в 12:30 GMT, Президенты ФРБ будут выступать сегодня в следующем порядке: 12:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Чикаго, голосующий член FOMC Чарльз Эванс, 13:05 GMT Президент ФРБ Сент-Луиса, голосующий член FOMC Джеймс Буллард, 14:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка, постоянный голосующий член FOMC Уильям Дадли.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/24032017-golosovanie-po-obamacare-otlozheno-v-svyazi-s-raznoglasiyami-respublikantsev/ ..Источник: FxTeam

24 марта, 12:12

Healthcare Vote Postponed Due To Republican Disagreement

The vote on President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office, to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the American Health Care Act, was postponed abruptly from Thursday evening to Friday March 24, due to severe disagreements within the Republican party. President Trump and Republican leaders have been attempting to convince more Republicans to support the new bill. However, it seems to be difficult to reverse the situation in a short time period. Trump stated that if the bill fails to pass he would leave the Obamacare in place (against his election pledge). The Republican party holds the majority in the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democratic minority will vote against the Bill. The Bill requires at least 215 votes to pass from the House’s 430 current members. Therefore, the maximum of defections is limited to 22 votes from the Republican party’s 237 representatives. The dollar index has been oscillating in a range between 99.30 – 99.80 set in the past two days. If the Bill fails to pass, markets would likely lose confidence in Trump’s administration and his other policies (such as tax-cuts and regulation reform) which will likely weigh on USD and US equities. The dollar index will likely fall and test the significant support level at 99.00. Fed Chair Yellen made a speech on Thursday at the Community Development Research. Unexpectedly, she mainly talked about financial education for children and teenagers without mentioning monetary policy and/or the economic outlook. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (an FOMC voting member) said on Thursday that “the Fed should patiently remove monetary policy accommodation, as the US economy is making progress and the job market is tight, and suggesting three rate hikes this year”. With that said, the Fed will likely raise rates two times more until the end of the year. Conversely, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (an FOMC voting member) commented that “inflation remains below the Fed’s target”. He was the only one who dissented a rate hike in last week’s FOMC rate decision. The Scottish parliament postponed a second Scottish independence referendum vote due to the terror attack at Westminster. The vote was postponed until Tuesday 28 March, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. We can expect volatility on GBP and GBP crosses over the period. Today we will see the release of US durable goods orders and core durable goods (Fed), accompanied by Canadian CPI and core CPI (Feb), at 12:30 GMT. Fed presidents are scheduled to deliver speeches today per the following schedule: 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, an FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, an FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, an FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley

24 марта, 12:12

Healthcare Vote Postponed Due To Republican Disagreement

The vote on President Trump’s first bill proposal since taking office, to repeal Obamacare and replace it with the American Health Care Act, was postponed abruptly from Thursday evening to Friday March 24, due to severe disagreements within the Republican party. President Trump and Republican leaders have been attempting to convince more Republicans to support the new bill. However, it seems to be difficult to reverse the situation in a short time period. Trump stated that if the bill fails to pass he would leave the Obamacare in place (against his election pledge). The Republican party holds the majority in the US Congress in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Democratic minority will vote against the Bill. The Bill requires at least 215 votes to pass from the House’s 430 current members. Therefore, the maximum of defections is limited to 22 votes from the Republican party’s 237 representatives. The dollar index has been oscillating in a range between 99.30 – 99.80 set in the past two days. If the Bill fails to pass, markets would likely lose confidence in Trump’s administration and his other policies (such as tax-cuts and regulation reform) which will likely weigh on USD and US equities. The dollar index will likely fall and test the significant support level at 99.00. Fed Chair Yellen made a speech on Thursday at the Community Development Research. Unexpectedly, she mainly talked about financial education for children and teenagers without mentioning monetary policy and/or the economic outlook. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (an FOMC voting member) said on Thursday that “the Fed should patiently remove monetary policy accommodation, as the US economy is making progress and the job market is tight, and suggesting three rate hikes this year”. With that said, the Fed will likely raise rates two times more until the end of the year. Conversely, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (an FOMC voting member) commented that “inflation remains below the Fed’s target”. He was the only one who dissented a rate hike in last week’s FOMC rate decision. The Scottish parliament postponed a second Scottish independence referendum vote due to the terror attack at Westminster. The vote was postponed until Tuesday 28 March, which is only one day ahead the triggering of the Brexit process. We can expect volatility on GBP and GBP crosses over the period. Today we will see the release of US durable goods orders and core durable goods (Fed), accompanied by Canadian CPI and core CPI (Feb), at 12:30 GMT. Fed presidents are scheduled to deliver speeches today per the following schedule: 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, an FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, an FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, an FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley

24 марта, 09:42

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 10:30 GMT Ключевая ставка Банка России В 12:00 GMT Член FOMC Чарльз Эванс выступит с речью В 13:05 GMT Член FOMC Джеймс Буллард выступит с речью В 14:00 GMT Член FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

22 марта, 14:01

Доллар снижается на неопределенности вокруг Трампа и закрытия позиций

Влияние на рынок:1Devata TsengДоллар падал во вторник, индекс доллара пробил важный уровень поддержки на 100.00 и далее тестирует следующий важный уровень поддержки на 99.50. Тренд на снижение временно удерживался выше этого уровня.На прошлой неделе индекс доллара снизился на 1.3%, показав худшую производительность за последние 8 месяцев. Несмотря на отскок в феврале, индекс доллара просел приблизительно на 2.1% с начала года из-за фиксации прибыли после роста следом за президентскими выборами.В последнее время несколько инвестиционных банков сменили свои взгляды на перспективы доллара с бычьих на медвежьи, а также сократили количество длинных позиций. Рыночные опасения в отношении неопределенности усиливаются действиями администрации Трампа. Недавние комментарии ФРС были не настолько ястребиными, насколько рассчитывал рынок. К тому же, недавний ястребиный тон ЕЦБ также надавил на доллар.Диапазон цен между 99.00 – 99.50 по индексу доллара, вероятно, обеспечит более сильную поддержку. Тем не менее, если эта зона будет пробита, вероятно, мы увидим дальнейшую распродажу американского доллара.Во вторник президент ФРС Нью-Йорка Уильям Дадли (постоянный голосующий член FOMC) заявлял о необходимости улучшения банковской культуры. Тем не менее, он не уточнил ничего о перспективах повышения процентных ставок.Этот комментарий последовал за выступлением президента ФРС Канзаса Истер Джордж (не голосующий член FOMC), которая заявила, что сейчас пришло время для ФРС отказаться от части денежно-кредитных стимулов, чтобы предотвратить перегрев экономики. Тем не менее, ФРС нужно быть осторожной с ужесточением политики. Она также не уточнила ничего в отношении перспектив для процентных ставок.Данные по британской инфляции за февраль были опубликованы во вторник 21 марта. Британский индекс потребительской инфляции CPI показал рост на 2.3%, тогда как базовый индекс инфляции вырос до 2.0%, впервые превысив целевые 2% с января и июля 2014 года. Британская инфляция в основном была движима слабым фунтом и ростом стоимости топлива.Пара GBP/USD были в состоянии ралли более чем на 70 пунктов после релиза данных, тестируя следующий важный уровень сопротивления на 1.2500. Фунт столкнулся с наиболее бычьей чередой роста с января за счет роста рыночных ожиданий в отношении перспектив для процентных ставок: член Комитета по денежно-кредитной политике Форбс проголосовала за повышение ставок в марте, в том числе из-за инфляции выше 2%. Тем не менее, слабый рост оплаты труда – одно из основных опасений для Банка Англии в контексте повышения процентных ставок.Британии все еще предстоит столкнуться с двумя годами политической неопределенности перед выработкой окончательной сделки с ЕС. Президент Банка Англии Карни заявил, что рынкам не следует чрезмерно реагировать на данные за один месяц. Потребуется более длительный период для оценки реальной производительности экономики Британии в ходе переговоров по Brexit.Сегодняшний экономический календарь будет относительно свободным. Данные по запасам нефти в США от EIA (за неделю по 17 марта) будут опубликованы в 14:30 GMT. Резервный Банк Новой Зеландии примет решение по процентным ставкам в 20:00 GMT.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/22032017-dollar-snizhaetsya-na-neopredelennosti-vokrug-trampa-i-zakryitiya-pozitsiy/ ..Источник: FxTeam

22 марта, 12:17

Dollar Tumbles on Trump Uncertainty and Position Closing

USD plunged on Tuesday, the dollar index breaking the significant support line at 100.00 and further testing the next major support at 99.50. The downtrend was held temporarily above that level. Last week the dollar index fell by 1.3%, marking the worst weekly performance in the past 8 months. Regardless of the rebound in February, the dollar index has retraced approximately 2.1% since the beginning of this year because of profit-taking pressure post the US presidential election surge. Recently, several investment banks have turned their USD outlook from bullish to bearish, and cut their USD long positions. Market concerns over the uncertainty arising from the Trump administration also pose downside risk on USD. The recent Fed comments were not as hawkish as markets expected. Additionally, the ECB’s recent hawkish tone also weighing on USD. The price range between 99.00 – 99.50 of the dollar index is likely to provide a stronger support. However, if this zone is broken, we will likely see a further USD sell-off. On Tuesday, New York Fed President William Dudley (a FOMC permanent voting member) stated that “bank culture needs to be improved”. However, he did not comment on the future prospective of rate hikes. This comment was followed by Kansas Fed President Esther George (a non-voting member) stated that “it is a critical time for the Fed to remove some of monetary stimulus to prevent the economy from overheating”. However, the Fed needs to be cautious on tightening. She also made no comment on future prospective rate hikes. UK inflation data for February was released on Tuesday March 21st. UK CPI rose to 2.3%, with core CPI rising to 2.0%, for the first time surpassing the central bank’s 2% target since January and July 2014 respectively. UK inflation has been mainly lifted by weak GBP and the rising cost of fuel. GBPUSD rallied more than 70 points after the release of the data testing the next significant resistance level at 1.2500. GBP has seen its longest bullish streak since January helped by the increased market expectations on a prospective rate hike led by the recent events: BoE’s MPC member Forbes voted for a rate hike in March, and the above 2% inflation readings. However, weak wage growth is one of the BoE’s major concerns over rate hike. The UK still needs to face 2-years of political uncertainty before the final Brexit deal is made with the EU. Bank of England President Carney commented that “markets shouldn’t overact on one month’s data”. It will take an extended period for the markets to have a broader scope for the UK economy performance during Brexit negotiation. Today is relatively light on economic data releases. US EIA crude oil inventory (the week ending March 17) will be released at 14:30 GMT. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, at 20:00 GMT.

22 марта, 12:16

Dollar Tumbles on Trump Uncertainty and Position Closing

USD plunged on Tuesday, the dollar index breaking the significant support line at 100.00 and further testing the next major support at 99.50. The downtrend was held temporarily above that level. Last week the dollar index fell by 1.3%, marking the worst weekly performance in the past 8 months. Regardless of the rebound in February, the dollar index has retraced approximately 2.1% since the beginning of this year because of profit-taking pressure post the US presidential election surge. Recently, several investment banks have turned their USD outlook from bullish to bearish, and cut their USD long positions. Market concerns over the uncertainty arising from the Trump administration also pose downside risk on USD. The recent Fed comments were not as hawkish as markets expected. Additionally, the ECB’s recent hawkish tone also weighing on USD. The price range between 99.00 – 99.50 of the dollar index is likely to provide a stronger support. However, if this zone is broken, we will likely see a further USD sell-off. On Tuesday, New York Fed President William Dudley (a FOMC permanent voting member) stated that “bank culture needs to be improved”. However, he did not comment on the future prospective of rate hikes. This comment was followed by Kansas Fed President Esther George (a non-voting member) stated that “it is a critical time for the Fed to remove some of monetary stimulus to prevent the economy from overheating”. However, the Fed needs to be cautious on tightening. She also made no comment on future prospective rate hikes. UK inflation data for February was released on Tuesday March 21st. UK CPI rose to 2.3%, with core CPI rising to 2.0%, for the first time surpassing the central bank’s 2% target since January and July 2014 respectively. UK inflation has been mainly lifted by weak GBP and the rising cost of fuel. GBPUSD rallied more than 70 points after the release of the data testing the next significant resistance level at 1.2500. GBP has seen its longest bullish streak since January helped by the increased market expectations on a prospective rate hike led by the recent events: BoE’s MPC member Forbes voted for a rate hike in March, and the above 2% inflation readings. However, weak wage growth is one of the BoE’s major concerns over rate hike. The UK still needs to face 2-years of political uncertainty before the final Brexit deal is made with the EU. Bank of England President Carney commented that “markets shouldn’t overact on one month’s data”. It will take an extended period for the markets to have a broader scope for the UK economy performance during Brexit negotiation. Today is relatively light on economic data releases. US EIA crude oil inventory (the week ending March 17) will be released at 14:30 GMT. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, at 20:00 GMT.

21 марта, 12:18

Brexit будет запущен 29 марта

Влияние на рынок:2Devata TsengВчера была окончательна утверждена дата официального старта процедуры Brexit.Премьер-министр Британии Тереза Мэй обратиться к 50 статье Лиссабонского договора в среду 29 марта, начав тем самым двухлетний процесс переговоров по выходу из состава ЕС. Утвержденная дата соответствует ее плану по началу “процесса развода” к концу марта.Тереза Мэй официальным письмом уведомит председателя Европейского Совета Дональда Туска в следующую среду. Туск, как ожидается, представит странам ЕС проект руководящих принципов Brexit в течение 48 часов после обращения к 50 статье. Государства-члены, как ожидается, проведут саммит Brexit в течение 4-6 недель.Следом за этими новостями фунт падал против доллара и евро. В среду пара GBP/USD просела примерно на 100 пунктов с максимального значения за 3 недели на уровне 1.2435, пробив уровень поддержки на 1.2400 и внутридневной минимум на 1.2334. Этим утром цена отскочила после тестирования уровня поддержки на 1.2340.Сегодня в 09:30 GMT выйдет серия данных по британской инфляции за февраль. Вероятно, они повлияют на динамику фунта и кроссов с валютой.На этой неделе запланированы выступления 9 президентов ФРС и членов FOMC по следующему графику:Вторник 21 марта 10:00 – 11:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка, постоянный член Федерального комитета открытого рынка (FOMC) с правом голоса Уильям Дадли 16:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Канзаса Истер Джордж 22:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Кливленда, член FOMC Местер Четверг 23 марта 12:00 GMT Председатель ФРБ Йеллен 18:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Миннеаполиса, член FOMC с правом голоса Нил Кашкари 23:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Далласа, голосующий член FOMC Роберт Каплан Пятница 24 марта 12:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Чикаго, голосующий член FOMC Чарльз Эванс 13:05 GMT Президент ФРБ Сент-Луиса, голосующий член FOMC Джеймс Буллард 14:00 GMT Президент ФРБ Нью-Йорка, член FOMC с постоянным правом голоса Уильям Дадли Президент ФРБ Чикаго Эванс заявил в понедельник, что “экономика на правильном пути”, и ФРС на пути ещё двух повышений ставки в этом году. При ускорении инфляции, возможны четыре повышения. Действия администрации Трампа и фискальная политика могут повлиять на перспективы дальнейшего повышения ставок. Эта неделя относительно свободная в контексте релизов данных. Таким образом, ястребиные / голубиные заявления президентов ФРС могут стать основным драйвером динамики доллара. Этим утром индекс доллара торгуется ниже важного уровня на 100.00. Ястребы ФРС Джордж и Местер, вероятно, усилят свою риторику сегодня. Несмотря на это, нисходящее давление на доллар все еще сильно.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/21032017-brexit-budet-zapushhen-29-marta/ ..Источник: FxTeam

21 марта, 12:03

Brexit to be Triggered on March 29

The date to officially start the Brexit procedure was finally confirmed yesterday. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. The timetable is in line with her plan to begin “divorce proceedings” by the end of March. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk, with a letter next Wednesday. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s 27 member states, within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. The member states are expected to hold a Brexit summit within 4-6 weeks. Following the news, GBP dropped against USD and EUR. On Monday, GBPUSD fell approximately 100 points from a 3-week high of 1.2435, breaking a support level at 1.2400, hitting the intra-day low of 1.2334. This morning the price has rebounded after testing the support line at 1.2340. Today, at 9:30 GMT, we will see the release of a series of UK inflation data for February. It will likely affect the strength of GBP and GBP crosses. There are 9 Fed presidents and FOMC members scheduled to have a speech this week per the following schedule: Tuesday March 21 10:00 – 11:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley 16:00 GMT Kansas Fed President, Esther George 22:00 GMT Cleveland Fed President, a FOMC member, Mester Thursday March 23 12:00 GMT The Fed Chair Yellen 18:00 GMT Minneapolis Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Neel Kashkari 23:00 GMT Dallas Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Robert Kaplan Friday March 24 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, a FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley Chicago Fed President Evans stated on Monday that “the economy is on a good course”, with the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. If inflation picks up, four consecutive rate hikes could be possible. President Trump’s administration and fiscal policy would add to further rate hikes. This week is relatively light on economic data releases. Therefore, the Fed presidents’ prospective hawkish / dovish comments are likely to become the major driver of USD moves. This morning, the USD index is trading below the significant level at 100.00. The Fed hawks, George and Mester, will likely make more hawkish comments today. Regardless, downward pressure on USD is still heavy.

21 марта, 12:03

Brexit to be Triggered on March 29

The date to officially start the Brexit procedure was finally confirmed yesterday. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty on Wednesday March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. The timetable is in line with her plan to begin “divorce proceedings” by the end of March. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk, with a letter next Wednesday. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to the European Union’s 27 member states, within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. The member states are expected to hold a Brexit summit within 4-6 weeks. Following the news, GBP dropped against USD and EUR. On Monday, GBPUSD fell approximately 100 points from a 3-week high of 1.2435, breaking a support level at 1.2400, hitting the intra-day low of 1.2334. This morning the price has rebounded after testing the support line at 1.2340. Today, at 9:30 GMT, we will see the release of a series of UK inflation data for February. It will likely affect the strength of GBP and GBP crosses. There are 9 Fed presidents and FOMC members scheduled to have a speech this week per the following schedule: Tuesday March 21 10:00 – 11:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley 16:00 GMT Kansas Fed President, Esther George 22:00 GMT Cleveland Fed President, a FOMC member, Mester Thursday March 23 12:00 GMT The Fed Chair Yellen 18:00 GMT Minneapolis Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Neel Kashkari 23:00 GMT Dallas Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Robert Kaplan Friday March 24 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, a FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley Chicago Fed President Evans stated on Monday that “the economy is on a good course”, with the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. If inflation picks up, four consecutive rate hikes could be possible. President Trump’s administration and fiscal policy would add to further rate hikes. This week is relatively light on economic data releases. Therefore, the Fed presidents’ prospective hawkish / dovish comments are likely to become the major driver of USD moves. This morning, the USD index is trading below the significant level at 100.00. The Fed hawks, George and Mester, will likely make more hawkish comments today. Regardless, downward pressure on USD is still heavy.

21 марта, 11:03

(English) Brexit to be Triggered on March 29

Влияние на рынок:3Devata TsengThe date to officially start the Brexit procedure was finally confirmed yesterday. The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, will trigger Article 50 of Lisbon treaty on March 29, starting the 2-year Brexit negotiation process with the EU. The timetable is in line with her plan. Theresa May will formally notify the EU Council President, Donald Tusk, with a letter next Wednesday. Tusk is expected to present draft Brexit guidelines to EU 27 member states, within 48 hours of the UK triggering Article 50. The EU 27 are expected to hold a Brexit summit within 4-6 weeks. Following the news, Sterling dropped against the dollar and the Euro. On Monday, GBP/USD fell around 100 points, from a 3-week high of 1.2435, breaking the level at 1.2400, hitting the intra-day low of 1.2334. This morning the price has rebounded after testing the support line at 1.2340. Today we will see the release of a series of UK inflation data for February, at 09:30 GMT. It will likely affect the strength of GBP and GBP crosses. There are 9 Fed presidents and FOMC members scheduled to have a speech this week as below : Tuesday March 21 10:00 – 11:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley 16:00 GMT Kansas Fed President, Esther George 22:00 GMT Cleveland Fed President, a FOMC member, Mester Thursday March 23 12:00 GMT The Fed Chair Yellen 18:00 GMT Minneapolis Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Neel Kashkari 23:00 GMT Dallas Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Robert Kaplan Friday March 24 12:00 GMT Chicago Fed President, a FOMC voting member, Charles Evans 13:05 GMT St Louis Fed President, a FOMC member, James Bullard 14:00 GMT New York Fed President, a FOMC permanent voting member, William Dudley The Chicago Fed President Evans stated on Monday that the economy is on a good course, the Fed is on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. If inflation picks up, four times of rate hikes could be possible. Trump administration’s fiscal policy would affect rate hike outlook too. This week is relatively light on economic data releases. Therefore, the Fed presidents’ prospective hawkish / dovish comments are likely to become the major driver of the dollar moves. This morning, the dollar index is trading below the significant level at 100.00. The Fed hawks, George and Mester, will likely make a hawkish comment today. However, the selling pressure on the dollar is still heavy.Статья взята с Блога FxPro - http://blog.fxpro.ru/daily-forex-outlook/21032017-brexit-to-be-triggered-on-march-29/ ..Источник: FxTeam

21 марта, 10:25

События сегодняшнего дня:

В 10:00 GMT Член FOMC Уильям Дадли выступит с речью В 10:00 GMT Встреча совета министров финансов стран Евросоюза В 10:30 GMT Губернатор Банка Англии Марк Карни выступит с речью В 16:00 GMT Член FOMC Истер Джордж выступит с речью В 19:45 GMT Заместитель губернатора Банка Канады Лоуренс Шембри выступит с речью В 22:00 GMT Член FOMC Лоретта Местер выступит с речью Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

20 марта, 15:53

Key Events In The Coming Week

The week ahead sees focus in Europe turn back to the French elections with the first presidential debate coming up on Monday, while in the US we get plenty of Fedspeak to parse, including from Chair Yellen.  On the US economic docket, the key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday. The UK also remains on the radar, with an important data week ahead bringing updates on inflation and retail sales, and also bringing us one week closer to the triggering of A50, which will be done on March 29.  In G10 Central Banks, only the RBNZ coming up, which we expect to remain on hold, despite Q4 GDP significantly disappointing their forecast.   Elsewhere: There will be monetary policy meetings in Russia, Colombia, Taiwan and The Philippines. We forecast Colombia's Banrep to cut 25bp. Rating reviews in Saudi Arabia and Georgia. In the US, the main focus will be on durable goods as well as a host of Fed speakers including NY Fed President Dudley and Chair Yellen. We also get existing & new home sales and the current account balance. In the Eurozone, focus is back on PMIs, where we expect a marginal decrease. Recent data continue to reflect a disconnect between 'soft' survey data and 'hard 'activity data. We also get the final TLTRO II announcement, where we expect a large take-up. Lastly, there is also a Eurogroup meeting where Greece will be discussed among other things. A busy data week for the UK, with inflation and retail sales the main focus, though we also get public finances data, which should be of little interest given the recent Budget . In Japan, a light calendar ahead - trade balance, BoJ minutes and BoJ's Funo on the agenda. In Canada the main data releases are inflation and retail sales. The week's daily breakdown courtesy of DB's Jim Reid: It looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index. On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading. Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales. The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI. Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with  Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece. * * * Finally, here is a focus on just the US courtesy of Goldman Sachs: Monday, March 20 08:30 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will discuss current economic conditions and monetary policy in a live TV interview on Fox Business News with Maria Bartiromo during “Mornings with Maria”. 01:10 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans will give a speech at the New York National Association for Business Economics Luncheon in New York. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Tuesday, March 21 06:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will participate in a panel discussion with Bank of England Governor Carney on ethics and culture in banking at an event hosted by the BoE in London. 08:30 AM Current account balance, Q4 (consensus -$128.1bn, last -$113.0bn) 09:45 AM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the 12th Asia-Pacific High Level Meeting on banking supervision in Bali, Indonesia. 12:00 PM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Esther George will give a speech on the US economic outlook and monetary policy at the Women in Housing and Finance luncheon in Washington D.C. Audience Q&A is expected. 06:00 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will give a speech as part of the Robins School of Business Executive Speaker series at the University of Richmond. Wednesday, March 22 09:00 AM FHFA house price index, January (consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%): Consensus expects the FHFA house price index to rise 0.4% in January, in line with the pace of growth in December. The FHFA house price index has a wider geographic coverage than the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, but is based only on properties financed with conforming mortgages. On a year-over-year basis, FHFA home prices rose 6.2% in December. 10:00 AM Existing home sales, February (GS -3.0%, consensus -2.4%, last +3.3%): We look for a 3.0% decline in February existing homes sales, following last month’s 3.3% increase. Regional housing data released so far suggest a moderate slowdown in closed homes sales, consistent with the 2.8% drop in January pending homes sales (which represent contract signings), and we suspect some of this weakness reflects the impact of higher mortgage rates. Existing home sales are an input into the brokers' commissions component of residential investment in the GDP report. Thursday, March 23 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended March 18 (GS 235k, consensus 240k, last 241k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended March 11 (last 2,030k): We expect initial jobless claims to decline 6k to 235k, somewhat below its recent trend, reflecting some additional normalization in New York following several volatile weeks affected by the timing of school holidays. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – declined at its fastest pace since mid-January in the most recent report (30k to 2,030k), suggestive of additional labor market improvement. Lastly, we note the year-to-date improvement in several energy-producing states, where initial jobless claims increased modestly last week but remain at a low level. 08:45 AM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give opening remarks at the 2017 Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. No Q&A is expected. 10:00 AM New home sales, February (GS +3.0%, consensus +1.8%, last +3.7%): We expect new home sales to rise 3.0% in February, adding to the 3.7% increase last month, reflecting unseasonably warm weather and limited snowfall. We also expect a favorable fundamental backdrop and the elevated level of single-family building permits to mitigate the negative impact of higher mortgage rates on new homes sales activity. On the negative side, sales of new homes in the Northeast region appeared elevated in January and seem likely to retrench. 11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, March (consensus +14.0, last +14.0) 12:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on US education outcomes and achievement gaps at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. Media Q&A is expected. At the March FOMC meeting, President Kashkari was the one dissenter in the committee’s decision to raise the federal funds rate target. 07:00 PM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan will participate in a moderated Q&A session on “Tailwinds and Headwinds: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Audience and media Q&A is expected. Friday, March 24 08:00 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Evans will give opening remarks at the 2017 Community Development Research Conference in Washington D.C. 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, February preliminary (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.2%, last +2.0%): Durable goods orders ex-transportation, February preliminary (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.6%, last flat); Core capital goods orders, February preliminary (GS +0.6%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.1%); Core capital goods shipments, February preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +0.1%, last -0.4%): We expect durable goods orders to rise 2.0%, driven by higher non-defense aircraft orders indicated by stronger company-reported data. We also believe the details of the report are likely to be strong, reflecting further improvement in manufacturing surveys, solid February industrial production data, encouraging commentary from industrial firms, and Chinese New Year effects that alone could add much as 1.4pp to core capital goods orders. Accordingly, we expect a 0.6% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.7% increase in core capital goods shipments. We expect durable goods orders ex-transportation to rise 0.8%. 08:30 AM St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC non-voter) speak: St. Louis Fed President Bullard will give a speech to the Economic Club of Memphis. Audience and media Q&A is expected. 08:30 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President John Williams will participate in a discussion on a paper titled, "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest" at the Brookings Institution's Papers on Economic Activity spring conference. 09:45 AM Markit Flash US Manufacturing PMI, March preliminary (consensus 54.7, last 54.2) 10:00 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President William Dudley will take part in a fireside chat at York College with business and economics students. Audience Q&A is expected. Source: DB. BofA. GS  

20 марта, 13:41

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide Spooked By G20 Protectionist Shift; Dollar Drops For 4th Day

Global markets start the week mixed with Asian stocks rising (Japan was closed for holiday), European stocks sliding, weighed down by declines in oil-and-gas shares and banks, and S&P500 futures also down. The dollar fell to a six-week low, falling four days in a row for the first time since early November as G20 leaders scrap a long-standing commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism, suggesting the "weak Dollar" camp in Trump's inner circle is winning. Equities retreated in Europe, Australia and New Zealand, as did S&P 500 Index futures. Japan’s stock market was closed Monday for a holiday. Indexes rose in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Thailand. The Australian 10-year yield resumed a retreat after rising at the end of last week. The yen touched its strongest in three weeks, while the Korean won was the highest in five months. Oil fell for the ninth day in 11. "European equity markets have started the week with a heavy risk-off sentiment after the G20 communiqué explicitly reflected U.S. intentions to establish trade protectionist measures," Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, told Reuters. "As the world's number one economy is preparing to set significant barriers against the world, investors are increasingly worried," she said. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose almost 0.4 percent to hit its highest level in more than two years on Monday. As a result, MSCI's global benchmark equity index was little changed. On Friday, Wall Street was flat to negative, dragged lower by bank shares that fell along with Treasury yields. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were down 0.1 percent. The underlying gauge rose 0.2 percent last week.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.2 percent. The FTSE 100 and Dax index were also both down 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.4 percent. The Hang Seng Index advanced 0.8 percent, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4 percent. New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index slid 1.4 percent, the most since November, dragged lower by Fletcher Building Ltd., which identified more expected losses in its construction division. For those readers who missed the weekend's big news, the G20 omitted a pledge to resist all forms of protectionism in its communique from its meeting in Germany over the weekend. That shift followed hours of wrangling that kept officials in suspense on whether the G-20 would even mention trade, with occasional doubts that a communique might be produced at all. Despite some modest weakness, global stocks are coming off their best week since January, even as the dollar has slumped 1.7% after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on March 15 yet didn’t accelerate the timeline for future tightening. The dollar index of its value against a basket of six currencies fell to a six-week low of 100.02 on Monday.  It fell 0.2 percent against the yen before recovering to trade flat on the day at 112.70 yen JPY=D4, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0770 EUR=.  Citi became the latest major bank to abandon its headline forecast for a fall in the euro to below parity with the dollar, upping its prediction for the single currency over the next six to 12 months to $1.04 from $0.98 previously. The dollar index of its value against a basket of six currencies fell to a six-week low of 100.02 on Monday. It fell 0.2 percent against the yen before recovering to trade flat on the day at 112.70 yen, while the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.0770. Volatility remains low across markets from equities to currencies and fixed-income as investors strive to assess how sustainable the nascent global economic recovery is.  As the chart below shows, following the recent volley of central bnk announcements, FX volatility has tumbled. The greenback extended its recent decline, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index touching its lowest level since November, pressured by investors who kept the latest bearish trend intact. A Japanese holiday and the previously noted Group-of-20 meeting that left most business unfinished suppressed flows in the major currencies; dropping a reference from the G-20 statement to resist trade protectionism weighed on the dollar, with macro and leveraged accounts adding to shorts positions, according to a London-based trader. Volumes were near the lowest they have been in March, a Europe-based trader noted. The Bloomberg dollar index, the BBDXY dropped, as much as 0.3% to 1223.95, lowest since Nov. 11, before paring decline; investors may look for guidance by speeches by Fed’s Dudley and Yellen expected later this week before meaningfully adjusting their current positioning. Currency markets will also be focused on a raft of speeches by Fed officials this week, including Chicago's Charles Evans on Tuesday and Friday, Chair Janet Yellen on Thursday, Dallas's Robert Kaplan and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari on Friday and New York's William Dudley on Saturday.  "Sentiment towards the dollar has deteriorated significantly," Societe Generale FX analysts said in a note to clients on Monday. In rates, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen around 10 basis points below 2.50 percent since the Fed raised rates last week for only the third time in over a decade. The gap between two- and 10-year yields has shrunk, meaning the yield curve has flattened. This suggests investors are skeptical growth and inflation will be strong enough to warrant a sustained cycle of rate hikes, and has subsequently weighed on the dollar. In commodities, oil prices continued their downward trend as OPEC supplies remained steady despite touted cuts and rising U.S. drilling contributed to concerns about a supply glut.  U.S. crude dropped 1% to $48.29 a barrel.  Global benchmark Brent fell 0.7% to $51.40.  The weaker dollar boosted gold which rose 0.4 percent at $1,233 an ounce, after touching a two-week high earlier in the session. Bulletin Headline summary from RanSquawk European equities trade modestly lower so far, with Deutsche Bank weighing on the financial sector has they begin their capital raising FX price action has been relatively muted amid light newsflow, while oil trades lower after lEA's Birol highlighted an increase in US oil output Highlights include, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Bundesbank Report and comments from Fed's Evans and BoE's Haldane. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2,371.00 MXAP up 0.2% to 148.64 MXAPJ up 0.4% to 481.53 Nikkei down 0.4% to 19,521.59 Topix down 0.4% to 1,565.85 Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 24,501.99 Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 3,250.81 Sensex down 0.5% to 29,516.48 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,778.91 Kospi down 0.4% to 2,157.01 STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 377.86 German 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 0.44% Euro up 0.3% to 1.0766 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.58/bbl Italian 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 2.357% Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.886% Brent Futures down 0.4% to $51.58/bbl Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,233.53 U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 100.15 Top Overnight News via BBG German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called for a concerted effort to defend free trade, expanding the list of economic powers joining together to counter the U.S. shift toward protectionism Money managers cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude by a record amount during the week ended March 14, while wagers on a further price drop doubled as oil remained below $50 a barrel Deutsche Bank to Raise $8.6 Billion After Pricing Share Sale Deutsche Bank Says Revenue to Stay ‘Broadly Flat’ This Year Cerberus-Backed Albertsons Said to Consider Merger With Sprouts Blackstone Venture Acquires $1.4 Billion of Hansteen Properties Hansteen Rises to Highest in 10 Years on Blackstone Asset Sale Alphapharm Begins Recall of Epipen Auto-Injector in Australia Ford’s Lincoln to Offer Its First Hybrid Model in China Arconic Reports Multi-Year Deal Supply With Toyota North America FDA Investigating Rate of Cardiac Events With Abbott’s BVS Cognizant Said to Likely Fire Over 6,000 Employees, ET Now Says In Asian markets, stocks traded mixed amid a lack of key drivers and with Japanese trade closed for the Spring Equinox public holiday, while ASX 200 (-0.5%) was led lower by telecoms and profit-taking in gold related stocks. China was positive with Hang Seng (+0.7%) the outperformer after a firm liquidity injection of CNY 100bIn by the PBoC and as participants digested earnings releases, while Shanghai Comp. (+0.4%) lagged after Chinese property prices continued to surge with Bejing prices up over 20% Y/Y, which could essentially attract funds away from stocks. Elsewhere, US equity futures were pressured and broke below Friday's lows, while Nikkei 225 remained shut due to the public holiday. Chinese Property Prices (Feb) Y/Y 11.8% (Prey. 12.2%). PBoC injected CNY 60bIn in 7-day reverse repos, CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 28-day reverse repos. Top Asian News Risk Appetite Goes Missing as Asia Starts the Week: Markets Wrap Yellen’s Shadow Looms Large Over China Central Bank Policy Selling Dollars Is Becoming The New Trump Trade: Markets Live Meitu Erases 28% Surge as Shares Seen Volatile Before Earnings China Said to Temporarily Suspend Beef Imports From Brazil Hong Kong Stocks Extend Weekly Rally as Shenhua Jumps on Payout Credit Suisse Co-Head of Asia Cash Equities Lee Said to Leave Malaysia Should Improve ‘Fragmented’ Military, Honeywell Says Morgan Stanley Said to Lose Second Senior M&A Banker in Asia European bourses have kicked off the week in tentative fashion with the calendar looking somewhat light. EU bourses are trading with minor losses amid slight weakness in the financial sector with Deutsche Bank commencing their EUR 8bIn capital raising plan, while UBS are set to go on trial in their tax case in France. Elsewhere, Vodafone initially saw telecoms as the only sector in the green after agreeing to merge their Indian unit with Idea Cellular, however with Co. shares paring the initial upside amid suggestions that the merger may struggle to pass through regulatory requirements. Price action in fixed income markets has been somewhat contained with Bunds only modestly lower, with slight underperformance observed in the belly of the curve. Ahead of the French TV debate in the presidential race, OATs had been underperforming for much of the morning with the German/French spread widening the most in 2 weeks. Top European News Deutsche Bank Says DoJ Closed Criminal Inquiry in FX Matter Merkel, Abe Call for EU-Japan Deal to Stem Trade Barriers Visco Says ECB Could Shorten Break Between QE Exit And Rate Hike Atos Denies Worldline Preparing Ingenico Bid, Reuters Says Hugo Boss Drops After Report Frere’s GBL Isn’t Shareholder Ingenico Rises After La Lettre Report Worldline Preparing Bid Troim’s Borr Buys Transocean’s Jack-Up Fleet for $1.35 Billion Paris Climate Accord Could Make the World $19 Trillion Richer Vodafone, Idea Agree on Merger to Create India Mobile Leader In currencies, the yen was little changed at 112.74 per dollar as of 8:26 a.m. in London after reaching its strongest since Feb. 28. The euro climbed 0.3 percent to $1.0769, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. The British pound gained 0.2 percent. The South Korean won jumped 1 percent to its highest since Oct. 20, leading gains in emerging Asian markets. The baht also reached its strongest level since October. The USD-index continues to weakn post the G20 meeting as finance leaders caved into pressure from the US and scrapped a commitment to reject all forms of trade protectionism. As such, the pullback in the greenback has supported its major counterparts, with GBP making a break above 1.2400. Additionally, from a UK stand point reports report have been circulating that PM May's closest have been calling for a potential snap election on May 4th in order to take seats from the SNP and reduce the likelihood of a second Scottish referendum. Another thing to keep an eye out for will be the French Election TV debate scheduled at 1900GMT, consequently, price action in EUR could be somewhat tame throughout the day, as has been the case so far, with the notable data of the morning coming I the form of Eurozone labour cost index, which was in line with Exp. ECB's Visco (Dove) said that deflation risk seems to have passed and that the ECB could shorten the time gap between exit from QE and first rate hike. In commodities, another rise in oil rigs continues to put the pressure on crude prices as WTI looks to test USD 48 to the downside, while lEA's Birol added to these concerns having noted that he expects a major boom in US oil output and shale gas volumes. Elsewhere, copper will be in focus after labour unions at Chile's Escondida mine slams new offer from management.  West Texas Intermediate crude slid 0.7 percent to $48.42 a barrel. It has dropped 10 percent this month, heading for the steepest one-month slide since July. Gold rose 0.3 percent to $1,232.97 an ounce, climbing for a fourth day. Base metals fell on the London Metal Exchange, with copper forwards down 0.2 percent and tin retreating 0.3 percent. US Event Calendar 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.03, prior -0.05 * * * DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Markets look set to be a little less interesting than my bedroom arrangements this week with perhaps the highlights being lots of Fed speakers, the first televised French Presidential debate tonight and the flash global PMIs on Friday. The Fed speakers will likely reinforce the message from the FOMC but watch for signs of increased confidence in their outlook. The French debates might start to lead to some bigger moves in the polls which have been relatively steady of late. As for the PMIs, volatility has been very subdued in the face of high political uncertainty due to continued strong data, especially survey data so the flash PMIs are often the best real time update of the global economic pulse. Over the weekend the G-20 meeting ended with the "resist all forms of protectionism" line dropped from the previous communiqué. The US were the stumbling block but it's still early days in the new Trump administration so for now it seems that markets will wait and see before becoming too scared by the implications. Indeed the more significant meeting may be the G-20 meeting in Hamburg in July by which time some of that uncertainty around the new US administration may have started to clear up. Aside from that the rest of the weekend news has been fairly light. The general view of the meeting between President Trump and Chancellor Merkel was that it was inconclusive with the President also tweeting after that “Germany owes vast sums of money to NATO and the United States must be paid for the powerful, and very expensive, defence it provides to Germany”. Over in markets there hasn’t been too much a reaction to the weekend headlines with bourses generally mixed in Asia, albeit with fairly modest moves. Indices in China are little changed while the Kospi (-0.52%) and ASX (-0.47%) are down. The Hang Seng (+0.53%) is up however and in doing so has passed the 24,000 level for the first time since 2015. Elsewhere, US equity index futures are down about -0.20% while in FX the USD is a smidgen weaker. Staying in Asia, there was also some data released in China over with the weekend with the release of the February house prices data. For new homes excluding subsidized housing, prices were reported as rising in 56 out of the 70 major cities which compares to 45 cities in January. It’s worth noting that Beijing’s municipal government on Friday increased the down payment requirement on second homes by 10% in an attempt to cool prices. The maximum length of a mortgage was also cut to 25 years from 30 years. The relatively quiet start this morning follows Friday’s session in which markets appeared to run out of steam following a packed week. That was certainly the case for equity markets where the S&P 500 closed with a modest -0.13% loss and so capping the weekly return at +0.24%. In Europe the Stoxx 600 did however end +0.16% despite Banks underperforming and so making the weekly return a solid +1.36%. Last week’s winner was EM however with the MSCI EM index rising every day last week, including a +0.25% gain on Friday, to finish +4.26% for the week and the strongest week since July last year. Meanwhile, over in bond markets and following those Nowotny comments late on Thursday suggesting that the ECB could raise the deposit rate before the main refinancing rate and also prior to QE ending, the front end of the Bund curve saw yields tick higher, with 2y yields up 1.8bps to -0.792% and to the highest since February 6th. 10y and 30y Bund yields on the other hand finished 1.4bps and 3.1bps lower. Our European fixed income strategy team highlighted in their weekly on Friday that the market is now pricing a significant probability of a oneoff hike in the deposit facility rate. They note that a 10bp hike is priced by Jan-18, a 15bp hike by May-18 and a 20bp hike by Aug-18. Indeed they believe that the sequencing of the ECB’s easing decisions since the start of QE suggests that a one-off hike in the deposit rate is likely, however at the same time could present some communication challenges highlighted by the steepening of the money market curve in the recent repricing of the timing of the first 10-20bp move in Eonia rates. Elsewhere 10y Treasury yields retraced much of the previous day’s move by falling 4bps to 2.501%. The Fed’s Kashkari spoke – who as a reminder was the lone dissenter at the FOMC vote last week – and said that relatively little change in recent data and his belief that the job market slack remains tilted his vote towards favouring not raising rates. While there wasn’t much particularly going on in markets, Friday was however another busy session for data releases in the US. The most anticipated was the February industrial production report which came in a  little disappointing with production flat during the month versus expectations for a +0.2% mom rise, while capacity utilization also ticked down one-tenth to 75.4%. Manufacturing production did however rise +0.5% mom during the month and matching consensus. Away from that the first look at the March University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading revealed a 1.3pt rise in the headline sentiment reading to 97.6 (vs. 97.0 expected). Most notable in the details was the 3pt rise in the current conditions index to a new high of 114.5. The expectations component on the other hand rose a much more modest 0.2pts to 86.7 while both 1y and 5-10y inflation expectations fell three-tenths each to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively. The other data out on Friday was the conference board’s leading index which rose +0.6% mom in February and the labour market conditions index which strengthened by 1.3 index points in February. All told the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP tracker remains unchanged at 0.9%. That continues to fly in the face of the NY Fed model which, while revised down 0.4% last week, still sits at 2.8%. Over to this week’s calendar now where, after all the excitement last week, it looks set to be a fair bit quieter this week. The lone data in Europe this morning is PPI in Germany while in the US the only data due is the Chicago Fed national activity index. On Tuesday the early focus is on the UK with both the February CPI/ PPI/RPI prints and also the CBI trends orders data and public sector net borrowing data for last month. In the US we’ll get the current account balance reading. Kicking off Wednesday is Japan where the latest trade data is due. There is nothing of note in Europe on Wednesday while in the US we’ll get the FHFA house price index and February existing home sales. The diary is a bit busier on Thursday with various confidence readings due in France and Germany in the morning along with UK retail sales data for February. Over in the US we will then get new home sales, initial jobless claims and the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index. We end the week with what looks set to be the busiest day on Friday. In the morning we will get the flash March manufacturing PMI in Japan before we then get the flash manufacturing, services and composite PMI’s in Europe. France GDP will also be released. In the US we then end with preliminary February durable and capital goods orders and also the flash manufacturing PMI. Away from the data this week’s Fedspeak consists of Evans this evening, Dudley, George and Mester on Tuesday, Fed Chair Yellen on Thursday along with Kashkari and Kaplan, and then Evans on Friday along with  Bullard. Bundesbank President Weidmann is also due to speak today and the ECB’S Lautenschlaeger on Thursday. The BoJ minutes from the January meeting are due out on Tuesday. Other events worth watching is the live televised debate between the French presidential candidates tonight and also the Euro area finance ministers meeting today, including a discussion on Greece.

15 марта, 12:26

What Trump could do to the Federal Reserve

His inner circle contains some radical monetary thinkers—and Wall Street bankers. Who will prevail?

14 марта, 09:04

Fed Watch: Shifting Dots

Tim Duy: Shifting Dots, bt Tim Duy: The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting today. The outcome of the meeting is no longer in debate. A 25bp rate hike is widely expected after a round of Fedspeak in the week...

12 марта, 08:40

Александр Виноградов: «Что же изменило намерения ФРС США?»

Вероятность повышения ставки ФРС на ближайшем заседании правления, которое состоится 15 марта, составляет без малого 90%, что практически гарантирует повышение, в результате чего коридор ставки будет смещен на 0,25 процентных пункта, и, соответственно, новая ставка будет составлять 0,75 - 1%. Причины и возможные последствия подобного решения анализирует экономический обозреватель «БИЗНЕС Online» Александр Виноградов.

08 марта, 14:41

Stocks Mixed As Treasuries Suffer Longest Losing Streak Since 2012, Dollar Pops Ahead Of ADP

Asian markets dropped following disappointing China trade and Japan GDP data, while European stocks rebounded for the first time in five sessions led by miners and banks. US futures were little changed as the dollar strenghtened, pressuring oil further below $53; sterling slid for the eighth day out of nine, dropping under 1.215 before the chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget. Treasuries are headed for their longest losing streak since 2012 ahead of a 10Y U.S. debt auction, and today's ADP private payrolls report. Following four sessions of losses, European shares edged up on Wednesday, with the Stoxx 600 index fractionally in the green, after minor gains driven by Chinese import data which signaled a recovering economy (just ignore the huge miss in exports), while the dollar rose before jobs numbers that could help cement expectations that U.S. interest rates will rise next week. Banks rose, while healthcare stocks fell after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he was developing a plan to encourage competition in the drug industry. Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.1% before finance minister Philip Hammond unveils his first budget since the UK voted to leave the European Union. Today's key event ahead of Friday's payroll report is the latest ADP report where expectations are for 189k. It's important only in so far as it will give us a guide to Friday's payrolls which in turn will be the last employment data before next week's FOMC meeting. With the probability of a hike now 96% (according to Bloomberg's calculator which overstates a bit) it seems that the only economic data that could cause this probability to reverse would be employment on Friday or US CPI on Wednesday - the day of the decision. However the numbers would have to be large outliers to shift expectations markedly now. Meanwhile, volatility for virtually all asset classes continues to slide. Ever since Donald Trump gave his speech to a joint session of Congress last week and Fed officials including New York Fed President William Dudley ramped up odds of an interest-rate hike this month, volatility metrics across the board have plunged. Most Asian stocks fell amid lower trading volume.  As noted last night, China's imports in February grew 44.7% from a year earlier on a yuan-denominated basis and 38.1% in dollar terms, accelerating from the previous month and leading to a rare trade deficit. Exports rose 4.2%, missing expectations of a 14.6% rebound, and down from the 15.9% January gain. On the other hand, as Goldman wrote after the report, the apparent weakness in export data seems to be inconsistent with (1) signs of stronger global growth (our global leading indicator is at a multi-year high), and (2) strong early readings of exports from neighboring economies such as Korea. Several factors might be at work, including The strength in global data has been more evident in terms of survey than hard data so far. However, the biggest culprit is said to be Chinese New Year distortions: Our seasonal adjustment process is supposed to correct for these distortions when calculating the level of sequential growth. However, these distortions are often changing and with a small and changing effective sample there are large uncertainties related to these estimates. March data is likely to look better as the Chinese New Year distortion reverses. If year-over-year growth bounces back to January level, 1Q growth will still reach a decent mid-single digit level, a long way up from the trough a year ago. China's trade data briefly pushed the MSCI Asia-Pac index ex-Japan higher, although it later traded flat. Mainland Chinese shares dipped but Hong Kong stocks rose 0.4 percent. The Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) dropped after Japan's Final Q4 GDP missed expectations. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were choppy after the PBoC drained liquidity via reverse repo operations, leading to a 10th consecutive day of net outflows. The Stoxx Europe 600 was fractionally in the green, rising 0.01 in latest trading, after declining a fourth straight session on Tuesday. S&P 500 Index futures pared earlier declines to trade little changed. The S&P500 lost 0.3% on Tuesday, completing the first back-to-back declines since January. Health-care shares declined after Republicans released details of a replacement for Obamacare and the president tweeted about lowering drug costs for Americans. In the US, The yield on 10-year U.S. notes climbed for an eighth session and most government debt in Europe followed suit according to Bloomberg. Bank and commodity producer shares responded positively, putting the Stoxx Europe 600 Index on course for its first gain in five days. The British pound slid for the eighth day out of nine before the chancellor of the exchequer delivers his spring budget. There’s “a bit of supply pressure but there are bigger issues going on,” Padhraic Garvey, London-based global head of strategy at ING Groep NV told Reuters. “The bigger issue is the realization that we’re facing into a Fed hike event and a reasonably positive environment from a European growth perspective.” In currencies, Sterling was an underperformer on currency markets, down 0.3 below $1.215. Below-forecast consumer spending data on Tuesday pushed the pound lower as it came after months of robust numbers and suggested the economy might be slowing. The euro weakened 0.1 percent to a day before a meeting of European Central bank policymakers. The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of currencies. It hit a seven-week high last week as a host of Federal Reserve officials talked up the chances of a rise in interest rates as soon as the March 14-15 meeting. Traders were waiting for Friday's U.S. jobs data as a final piece of evidence supporting a 25 basis point rise, which futures prices indicate is an 83 percent probability. The yen declined following the European open, trading up to 114.10. "Unless the market were to price in a significantly more upbeat picture for the US, which would imply the Fed might move much more dynamically than is currently priced in, whether they hike two time or three times this year isn't going to matter for the dollar," said Sonja Marten, FX strategist at DZ Bank in Frankfurt. Looking ar rates, attention has turned to the ECB ahead of the central bank's Thursday announcement whose ongoing monetization of German bunds and speculation of scarcity in German securities have pushed yields on short-dated German government bonds to record lows in recent weeks. Two-year yields edged down 1 basis point to minus 0.88 percent while 10-year yields rose 4 bps to 0.36 percent, taking the gap between them to 122 bps, its widest since July 2014. In commodities, oil prices fell in anticipation of data expected to show growing U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent fell 31 cents a barrel to $55.61, while WTI was back under $53. "Oil is range-bound. If prices dip below $50 a barrel, OPEC will cut more; if it goes above $55 the U.S. will produce more," said Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance in Sydney. Gold fell 0.3% to $1,211 an ounce, weighed down by the prospect of higher U.S. interest rates. Market Snapshot S&P 500 futures down 0.02% to 2,366.00 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.01% to 372.31 MXAP down 0.2% to 144.39 MXAPJ down 0.03% to 465.62 Nikkei down 0.5% to 19,254.03 Topix down 0.3% to 1,550.25 Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 23,782.27 Shanghai Composite down 0.05% to 3,240.67 Sensex down 0.3% to 28,904.36 Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.03% to 5,759.66 Kospi up 0.06% to 2,095.41 German 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 0.35% Euro down 0.1% to 1.0553 per US$ Brent Futures down 0.6% to $55.57/bbl Italian 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 2.192% Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 1.752% Brent Futures down 0.6% to $55.57/bbl Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,212.49 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 101.96 Top Overnight News Apollo Said to Seek $20 Billion by May for New Buyout Fund CSX Bets Up to $300 Million on CEO for Worst-to-First Turnaround CSX Says It’s Working With Authorities at Site of Deadly Crash Credit Agricole Said to Weigh $2.4 Billion Saudi Stake Sale Armstrong World 5.25m-Share Block Said Offered at $44.90-$45.40 Lockheed Unit Awarded $1b U.S. Air Force Contract Caterpillar Sees ‘Significant’ China Improvement, Stays Cautious Amgen Sues Coherus Biosciences for Alleged Trade Secret Theft Republicans Give Rich Investors a Tax Break in Obamacare Revamp Pertamina in Talks to Swap Part of Its U.S. LNG Cargoes Asia equity markets traded mixed as the region digested several disappointing data releases and after a downbeat close on Wall Street, where healthcare names suffered from US President Trump comments that he will work to lower drug prices. ASX 200 (Unch) was subdued amid weakness in commodities, while Nikkei 225 (-0.5%) was dampened after Japan's Final Q4 GDP missed expectations. Hang Seng (+0.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were choppy after the PBoC kept liquidity operations weak which led to a 10th consecutive day of net outflows and as participants mulled over the latest trade figures which showed weaker than expected exports and an unexpected trade deficit, while imports surged 44.7%. 10yr JGBs were slightly lower as a mild bid tone from weaker than expected GDP data and risk averse sentiment in Japan was overshadowed following a reserved Rinban buying operation in which the BoJ were in the market for a reserved JPY 750b1n of government debt. Top Asian News China Imports Surged in February as Exports Missed Estimates China Proposes North Korea-U.S. Compromise to Defuse Tensions Indonesia Gears Up for First Nickel Ore Exports Since 2014 Southeast Asian Startup Fave Buys Groupon Singapore Japan Post in Talks With Large Shippers to Raise Delivery Fees Yingde Gases Changes Venue for Both EGMs, External PR Says Yingde Shareholders Said to Reject Proposal to Oust Sun, Strutt CDB Aviation Set to Announce Order for 30 Boeing Max 8s: Reuters Equity markets are trading within a tight range this morning ahead of upcoming key risk events. There have been some notable stock stories this morning, with Adidas (+7.1 %) after reporting a rise in net income of 41 %. Elsewhere, EDF shares are subdued after the French utility company begins a EUR 4bn capital raising. In Fixed income markets, the PO-GE spread was initially wider with notable PGB underperformance. The 10Y PGB/Bono spread eyed 226bps ahead of impending supply which was later digested by the market . Today it's also worth looking at the 2/10Y spread which has fallen to-121.5bps as the short end outperforms. Bunds have broke through Mondays lows of 160.81 before being dealt a further blow by an uncovered Bobl auction. Top European News U.K. Budget Offers Sliding Bonds Chance of Respite Endesa Pares Gains After Enel Denies Takeover Report to Reuters Deutsche Post Shares Drop After Parcel Division Earnings Slowed Monte Paschi Said to Seek Fast Sale of Debt After EU Consent Cetinkaya Says Turkey Central Bank Will Tighten Policy If Needed Foxtons Warns London Home Sales Market Will Remain ‘Challenging’ Wilders Targets Turkey Amid Poll Slip Week Before Dutch Vote Inmarsat Rises After Winning In-Flight Web Access Deal From IAG French Worry More About Climate Change Than Neighbors Do EDF Drops as France Sells Capital-Increase Rights at Discount Slovenia’s NLB IPO May Boost East’s Capital Markets, EBRD Says In currencies the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2 percent, heading for a third day of gains. The British pound slipped 0.3 percent to $1.2163, falling for a third day, and the euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.0557. With the House of Lords adding to PM May's woes by voting for a 'meaningful' vote on the final Brexit terms, traders seem to be going with the negative impact on GBP. A few months ago, this would have been taken ion a positive light, but with Article 50 (triggering) now close, nervousness seems to be dictating, along with real money flow in thin market conditions. 1.2150 continues to hold in Cable, but looks vulnerable, with 1.2100-10 now the next target unless the tide turns later today — based on the UK budget or otherwise. With the 10yr UST yields testing the recent 2.55% high, USD/JPY has seen a modest pop after the European open, rising above 114.00. Still, the pair appears rangebound due to heavy Japanese exporter offers from 114.50 is deterring an aggressive push higher from 114.15-20 or so. EUR/USD remains hemmed inside 1.0500-1.0650, with ECB meeting on Thursday set to keep bids ahead of the lower limit intact given the 'risk' of a less dovish tone by president Draghi. AUD, more so than NZD has come under some pressure in early London after weak trade data out of China. Commodities have fallen further to also pull the spot rate back into the mid 0.7500's, while AUD/NZD is back under 1.0900 as NZD/USD losses slow in the mid 0.6900's. USD/CAD is probing higher into the 1.3400's again, as the USD (buying) shift works its way through the currency spectrum. In commodities, losses in base metals rest squarely on the Chinese trade data, which has shown a deficit of just over USD9bIn —the last deficit seen in early 2014. Copper prices have toppled to lows just shy of USD2.60, leading the way across the board. Steel exports have dropped to 3 year lows specifically, adding to the pressure. For precious metals, it is the same story running through the week, tracking US Treasuries to see Gold hit USD1211.00 and Silver just below USD17.40. Oil prices still in a range, with current inventory levels still having a modest impact on trade, though comments out of CERA suggest further/extension to production cuts are under question. Looking at the day ahead, the 2017 Budget in the UK will then be released just after midday. In the US we’ve got the ADP employment report as well as Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, and finally the January wholesale inventories and trade sales report. US Event Calendar 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 5.8% 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 187,000, prior 246,000 8:30am: Nonfarm Productivity, est. 1.5%, prior 1.3%; Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.6%, prior 1.7% 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 2.6% DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap While the general feeling is that today’s Budget is unlikely to throw up any real surprises, our economists note that the most interesting aspect of it from a market point of view is the positive fiscal performance in 2016/17 thanks largely to better than expected revenues, the benefit of which will by and large carry forward to the next fiscal year. This means that the Chancellor has a choice; either spend some of the additional fiscal space or increase the size of his £27bn rainy day fund. Our colleagues expect him to do a little of both, so worth keeping an eye on that especially with Brexit round the corner. As well as the UK Budget we have the latest ADP report in the US where expectations are for 189k (DB 185k). It's important only in so far as it will give us a guide to Friday's payrolls which in turn will be the last employment data before next week's FOMC meeting. With the probability of a hike now 96% (according to Bloomberg's calculator which overstates a bit) it seems that the only economic data that could cause this probability to reverse would be employment on Friday or US CPI on Wednesday - the day of the decision. However the numbers would have to be large outliers to shift expectations markedly now. Meanwhile over in Europe, data is not the main driver of short-end rates at the moment. The big move in European rates yesterday was in the front end of the bund curve with 2 and 5 year yields rallying 4.2bps and 3.7bps respectively and out-performing the equivalent maturities by 2-4bps across Europe. In turn this led to swap spreads widening around 3-4bps out to 5 years as the swap curve didn't move much. The reason for the move was the latest PSPP news on Monday showing that the average life of ECB bund purchases fell dramatically in February to 4.3 yrs from 9.4 in January and a peak of 12.1 in December. February was the first full month of the new purchasing rules but the scale of the dramatically shorter duration was a surprise and helps explain more why short dated bunds were squeezed so much in recent weeks. This squeeze was renewed yesterday. In the last hour we've published a credit bites entitled "Has the ECB just put pressure on credit spreads?" where we look at what impact this development might have on credit spreads. See the report for more details or email [email protected] if you haven't received it. Elsewhere in government bonds and in contrast to those moves for Bunds, following another bumper day for corporate issuance Treasury yields climbed higher yet again yesterday. 10y yields closed up for the seventh consecutive session, finishing 1.8bps higher at 2.519% which is the highest closing yield since December 27th (the peak intraday print this year is 2.553%). 2y yields also finished up 2.2bps at 1.328% and are now up over 19bps from the lows of last month. Yesterday’s moves mean that the 2y spread of Treasuries over Bunds has now reached 221bps which is in fact the largest since February 2000. The biggest spread since 1995 is 289bps which was reached in 1997. It’s probably not unfair to say that equity markets are a lot less exciting at the moment. The S&P 500 (-0.29%) closed lower for the second day in a row yesterday, the first time since January that that has happened. Energy stocks led losses which probably also helps to explain the underperformance of US credit (CDX IG +1.9bps versus iTraxx Main +0.5bps) after WTI Oil retreated a fairly modest -0.77% to just below $53/bbl. Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil minister suggesting that the OPEC production cuts were helping to sow “green shoots in the US” shale industry probably explained the weakness though. Healthcare stocks also struggled after President Trump said that his administration is working on a new system to boost competition in the drug industry. Elsewhere metals struggled once again with Copper (-1.45%), Zinc (-1.64%) and Nickel (-4.06%) all down sharply which also weighed on markets in Europe. The Stoxx 600 (-0.27%) in fact closed down for the fourth time in a row and eighth time in the last ten sessions. Meanwhile, in FX much of the focus was on Sterling which ended the day down -0.29% versus the Greenback and broke below $1.220 intraday for the first time since January 17th. Some softer than expected data didn’t help. The BRC’s retail monitor revealed a -0.4% yoy decline in same-store sales in February which compared to the consensus estimate of -0.1%. The Halifax house price index also revealed a smaller than expected rise in house prices in February (+0.1% mom vs. +0.4% expected) which as a result has seen the annual rate fall to +5.1% yoy from +5.7%. On top of that PM May was dealt another blow by the House of Lords after the upper house lawmakers voted in favour (by 366 to 268) of requiring the government to come back with the final Brexit terms to parliament for a “meaningful vote”. Brexit secretary David Davis called the defeat disappointing and confirmed that the government will seek to overturn the amendments in the House of Commons. Switching the focus now. This morning in Asia the most notable news is that concerning the latest trade numbers released in China where, in renminbi terms, exports were reported as rising just +4.2% yoy in  February which is down from +15.9% in January and well below consensus of +14.6%. Imports were also revealed as surging +44.7% yoy (vs. +23.1% expected) from +25.2% resulting in the first trade deficit in local currency terms since February 2014. However it is worth noting that it’s more than likely that the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday this year relative to last year has made for a big distortion of  year-over-year comparisons. The equivalent USD data is expected shortly. Bourses in China are currently flat for the day as we go to print but it’s been a fairly choppy session. Meanwhile in Japan the final Q4 GDP print was revised up one-tenth to +0.3% qoq on higher private capital investment, although that was actually a slight miss relative to consensus expectations for a rise to +0.4%. Annualized, growth in Q4 was +1.2%. The Nikkei (-0.53%) is weaker following the data and the Yen (+0.27%) slightly firmer. Elsewhere the Kospi is little changed and the ASX -0.15%. US equity index futures are also modestly in the red. In terms of the remaining data yesterday, in the US the trade deficit of $48.5bn in January was in line with where the consensus was and so confirming the largest deficit in real terms since March 2015. Imports came in at 8.3% yoy compared to exports of 7.5% yoy. Meanwhile consumer credit rose at a slightly less than expected $8.8bn in January. It’s worth noting that the Atlanta Fed has further cut their Q1 GDP growth forecast. They now estimate 1.3% growth according to their GDP tracker, and so furthering the gap versus the NY Fed’s estimate of 3.1%. Over in Europe yesterday Q4 GDP growth for the Euro area was confirmed at +0.4% qoq which was no change versus the initial flash estimate. Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we will be kicking off in Germany where the January industrial production data is released, before we then get the latest trade numbers out of France. The 2017 Budget in the UK will then be released just after midday. This afternoon in the US we’ve got the aforementioned ADP employment report as well as Q4 nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, and finally the January wholesale inventories and trade sales report.

07 марта, 17:30

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Hancock Holding, Bank of America, Eagle Bancorp Montana, Peoples Bancorp and Valley National Bancorp

The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: Hancock Holding, Bank of America, Eagle Bancorp Montana, Peoples Bancorp and Valley National Bancorp

12 октября 2015, 23:05

ФРС может опустить ставки ниже 0% при новом кризисе

В руководстве Федеральной резервной системы рассматривают возможность использования отрицательных процентных ставок, в случае если американская экономика вновь столкнется с серьезным кризисом.