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United Technologies
09 декабря, 15:27

Thy Hypocrisy Of Corporate Welfare: It's Bigger Than Trump

To paraphrase the famous Claude Raines line from Casablanca, “I am shocked—shocked—to find that corporate bribes are going on here!” Alarms are ringing from left, right and center over the $7 million grant by the state of Indiana to induce Carrier to keep 800 (not 1,100) jobs from moving to Mexico. (This downward revision comes from the Carrier Steelworkers local union president Chuck Jones who courageously called Trump out for inflating the numbers. Trump has tweeted back twice to attack Jones, who now is receiving threatening calls from anonymous Trump supporters.) Conservative pundits, so lost in their free market fictions, claim that Trump is interfering with the pristine operation of this system. He is picking winners and losers! He will ignite a trade war with his reckless tariffs! He will drive up prices of consumer goods! He will destroy more jobs than he will save! “This is the sort of package Republicans have traditionally loathed,” reports the New York Times. Hogwash. The “bribe” for Carrier is barely a rounding error in the tens of billions of dollars in public money and tax breaks lavished upon corporations each and every day by Republicans and Democrats alike. Profits deeply depend on the well-honed corporate art of playing states and countries against each other in order to feast at the public trough. The conservatives’ beloved free enterprise system has never been free of corporate bribes and corporate job blackmail. How big is the American Corporate Welfare Trough? Very Big The nonprofit research organization, Good Jobs First has developed a corporate welfare tracker that goes back to 1976. There are 34 corporate welfare recipients who received over $1 billion (not million) in corporate welfare for a total of $84.5 billion in tax breaks and subsidies of the kind Carrier will receive: Here are the top 10. Boeing $14,397,024,137 Intel $5,964,288,316 GM $5,832,287,385 Alcoa $5,798,922,493 Ford $4,044,067,895 NRG Energy $2,738,480,245 Sempra Energy $2,576,755,550 Tesla Motors $2,406,805,253 NextEra Energy $2,385,022,879 Iberdrola $2,248,534,669 The Alcoa-New York State Deal For just one example among thousands, let’s look at Alcoa, #4 on the corporate bribe list. In 2015, the company was scheduled to eliminate 600 jobs at its aluminum facility in upstate New York (500 layoffs and another 100 positions that would not be filled.) Low and behold, Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic senator Charles Schumer, came to the rescue with $38.8 million in capital and operation expenses from the state’s economic development arm, and another $30 million in energy cost assistance. Alcoa promises to keep the jobs in New York State for at least three years. “I heard last night: Alcoa said they were going to keep the plant open,” Schumer, who turned 65 a day earlier said. “That was the best birthday present I could have received.” The War Between the States Not only do state and local governments worry about jobs evaporating or shifting abroad, but they are equally petrified about relocations to other U.S. states. New Jersey and Connecticut, for example, are in a cutthroat war to hold onto their own enterprises, while also luring other corporations to move jobs their way. New Jersey’s largess, under a Republican governor, knows no bounds, reports the Wall Street Journal. In fact, its corporate tax incentives, loans and cash bribes are rising rapidly. Connecticut Bribes Multi-Billion Dollar Hedge Funds Perhaps the most nauseating examples of corporate welfare are occurring in “The Constitution State,” the plush exurbia home to many Wall Street hedge funds. Granted it’s a stretch to claim that any hedge fund contributes positive economic value to society, given that often their goal is simply to siphon wealth away from the rest of the economy and put it into the pockets of the super rich. Also, it’s hard to make the case that saving high paying hedge fund jobs somehow benefits working people and the middle class. But from the state’s perspective, hedge funds bring revenues and economic activity to the state and therefore are coveted. Since hedge funds can operate wherever they place their people and computers, these jobs are mobile. One leafy suburb near New York and the Hamptons is as good as another. Therefore Connecticut is an easy target for some good old corporate blackmail coming from the richest of the rich. Here are two egregious examples, this time under a Democratic governor: 1. Bridgewater Associates LP, the world’s largest hedge fund gets $22 million: Supposedly this package announced in May 2016 was to induce Bridgewater, a $150 billion hedge fund, to keep 1,400 jobs in Connecticut, and then possibly to add 700 more by 2021. This deal is nothing short of obscene. Ray Dalio, the founder and CEO of Bridgewater, had a reported income of $1.4 billion in 2014. His net worth is $14.1 billion. So the subsidy from the state to his firm amounts to 0.16% of his net worth ― about one tenth of a penny on every wealth dollar. Worse still is that Dalio gets an enormous tax break called “carried interest.” Instead of being liable for a federal tax of 35 percent― before deductions ― on his $1.4 billion ($490 million), his liability is only 20 percent ($280 million). So this hedge fund mogul takes advantage of a needless $210 million federal tax loophole and then still has the nerve to shake down the state for another $22 million. One wonders how Dalio justifies this level of greed. 2. AQR Capital Management gets a new state subsidy of $35 million: Once you bribe one billionaire hedge fund manager, get ready to do it again and again. On November 16, 2016, Connecticut announced a $35 million package of subsidies to another hedge fund that only has 540 jobs in the state but promises to add 600 more over the next ten years. Its CEO, Clifford Asness has a reported net worth of $4 billion. So let’s do the simple math on these corporate bribes: 600 Alcoa = $114,667 per job. 1,400 Bridgewater jobs = $15,714 per job. AQR’s 540 jobs = $64,815 per job Carrier’s $7 million for 800 jobs = $8,750 per job. I hate to say this, but Trump got a deal. Faulty Logic, Flagrant Greed It’s not just conservatives who are using faulty logic and wishful thinking to belittle the jobs saved at Carrier (and perhaps Rexnord too.) For example, Obama’s press secretary Josh Earnest said, “If he [Trump] is successful in doing that 804 more times, then he will meet the record of manufacturing jobs created in the United States while President Obama was in office.” Say what? Earnest should know that new jobs created by the Obama administration aren’t going to the Carrier workers or to most other workers dislocated due to outsourcing. Economy wide job creation is an entirely different process than stopping jobs from moving to Mexico ― something no administration has done since NAFTA. Also, the human experience of losing a decent paying job is one of the most life wrenching events imaginable, and not comparable to finding a new job. Job insecurity correlates with a significant rise in disease and death. You can’t wish that away with macro-statistics. Unfetter Greed and Stock Buybacks Steven Rattner, a liberal Wall Streeter with close ties to the Democratic Party, also ignores the unconscionable greed that is fueling the rush to low-wage labor. He argues that losing Carrier jobs is inevitable, and therefore it is folly to try to save them. “The vast preponderance of American job losses,” he writes in the New York Times, “has come simply because emerging-market countries have gotten much better at making stuff with workers earning far less.” Further, he argues that working people actually benefit by the export of jobs to low wage areas because the goods we import from those countries are far cheaper, thereby increasing the standard of living of all Americans. So some people lose their jobs so that the rest of us can purchase cheaper products and make our declining incomes travel further. Meanwhile Rattner chooses to ignore the prime beneficiaries of moving production abroad: the top executives and their hedge fund partners who drive the process. For example, United Technologies, the parent company of Carrier, is not worried about foreign competition. Rather, its top executives and hedge fund investors are seeking more cash flow to finance the $10 billion stock buyback plan they instituted last year. Stock buybacks always raise share prices to enrich top executives and hedge funds. They are the key to runaway inequality. Instead of justifying Carrier-like job loss, all of these pundits should explain to the America public how those same stock buybacks were illegal before 1982. That’s because they were considered stock manipulation! (Yes, in free markets, you’re not supposed to be able to manipulate the price of anything.) Since the Reagan administration legalized them, stock buybacks jumped from 2% of all corporate profits in 1980 to a whopping 75% of all corporate profits by 2007. There’s nothing inevitable about that. Is protecting middle-class jobs a just cause? One senses hesitancy within the liberal-left community about the righteousness of saving decent paying American jobs. After all if Trump is for it, it must be suspect, no? In a recent Rolling Stone interview Senator Sanders was asked why liberal-minded people should support economic nationalism ― a policy of “our jobs first.” Instead, isn’t it a good thing that jobs from wealthy nations go to raising the standard of living for poor people in Mexico, and other developing nations? Sanders’ response is worth noting: “....I am deeply concerned about poverty in countries around the world, and I believe that the United States and other major countries have got to work to address those issues. But you do not have to sacrifice the American middle class in order to do that. I find it ironic that the billionaire class says, “We’re worried about the poor people in Vietnam, and that’s why we’re sending your job to Vietnam.” That’s the billionaire class talking. Clearly we know what that is about. And you have some “liberals” who echo that point of view.... .... How you create a sustainable global economy that protects the poorest people in the world is a very important issue for me. But you surely do not have to do that by wiping out the middle class of this country. I think we have a right in this country to hold corporate America accountable for gaining the benefits of being an American corporation, while at the same time turning their backs on the American working class and the consumers who helped create their profits and their wealth.” Will Trump Ride the Outsourcing Issue into a Second term? If Trump continues to prevent jobs from fleeing abroad, he will gain increasing support from working class voters, and not just from white people. At Carrier, African-Americans make up 50% of the workforce. Ten percent are immigrants. Half of the assembly line workers are women. These dues-paying members of the United Steelworkers, are not likely to forget who saved their jobs. Outsourcing should be a progressive cause. Conservatives and their corporate backers hate any effort to suppress it. Wall Street elites want us to believe job outsourcing is an act of God, while they line their pockets with stock buybacks. Trump deserves to be attacked for many reasons, but not because he has saved 800 Carrier jobs. We should mobilize around the job outsourcing issue rather than letting him capture it. We should unmask the hypocrites who praise their precious free market while lavishing billions of tax dollars on thousands of corporations. To counter Carrier-like outsourcing, we should be building a movement to again outlaw massive stock buybacks. (For a more detailed plan see here.) (This post originally appeared on Alternet.org) Les Leopold, the director of the Labor Institute, is currently working with unions and community organizations to build the educational infrastructure of a new anti-Wall Street movement. His latest book Runaway Inequality: An Activist Guide to Economic Justice serves as a text for this campaign. All proceeds go to support these educational efforts.   -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

09 декабря, 15:27

Thy Hypocrisy Of Corporate Welfare: It's Bigger Than Trump

To paraphrase the famous Claude Raines line from Casablanca, “I am shocked—shocked—to find that corporate bribes are going on here!” Alarms are ringing from left, right and center over the $7 million grant by the state of Indiana to induce Carrier to keep 800 (not 1,100) jobs from moving to Mexico. (This downward revision comes from the Carrier Steelworkers local union president Chuck Jones who courageously called Trump out for inflating the numbers. Trump has tweeted back twice to attack Jones, who now is receiving threatening calls from anonymous Trump supporters.) Conservative pundits, so lost in their free market fictions, claim that Trump is interfering with the pristine operation of this system. He is picking winners and losers! He will ignite a trade war with his reckless tariffs! He will drive up prices of consumer goods! He will destroy more jobs than he will save! “This is the sort of package Republicans have traditionally loathed,” reports the New York Times. Hogwash. The “bribe” for Carrier is barely a rounding error in the tens of billions of dollars in public money and tax breaks lavished upon corporations each and every day by Republicans and Democrats alike. Profits deeply depend on the well-honed corporate art of playing states and countries against each other in order to feast at the public trough. The conservatives’ beloved free enterprise system has never been free of corporate bribes and corporate job blackmail. How big is the American Corporate Welfare Trough? Very Big The nonprofit research organization, Good Jobs First has developed a corporate welfare tracker that goes back to 1976. There are 34 corporate welfare recipients who received over $1 billion (not million) in corporate welfare for a total of $84.5 billion in tax breaks and subsidies of the kind Carrier will receive: Here are the top 10. Boeing $14,397,024,137 Intel $5,964,288,316 GM $5,832,287,385 Alcoa $5,798,922,493 Ford $4,044,067,895 NRG Energy $2,738,480,245 Sempra Energy $2,576,755,550 Tesla Motors $2,406,805,253 NextEra Energy $2,385,022,879 Iberdrola $2,248,534,669 The Alcoa-New York State Deal For just one example among thousands, let’s look at Alcoa, #4 on the corporate bribe list. In 2015, the company was scheduled to eliminate 600 jobs at its aluminum facility in upstate New York (500 layoffs and another 100 positions that would not be filled.) Low and behold, Democratic governor Andrew Cuomo and Democratic senator Charles Schumer, came to the rescue with $38.8 million in capital and operation expenses from the state’s economic development arm, and another $30 million in energy cost assistance. Alcoa promises to keep the jobs in New York State for at least three years. “I heard last night: Alcoa said they were going to keep the plant open,” Schumer, who turned 65 a day earlier said. “That was the best birthday present I could have received.” The War Between the States Not only do state and local governments worry about jobs evaporating or shifting abroad, but they are equally petrified about relocations to other U.S. states. New Jersey and Connecticut, for example, are in a cutthroat war to hold onto their own enterprises, while also luring other corporations to move jobs their way. New Jersey’s largess, under a Republican governor, knows no bounds, reports the Wall Street Journal. In fact, its corporate tax incentives, loans and cash bribes are rising rapidly. Connecticut Bribes Multi-Billion Dollar Hedge Funds Perhaps the most nauseating examples of corporate welfare are occurring in “The Constitution State,” the plush exurbia home to many Wall Street hedge funds. Granted it’s a stretch to claim that any hedge fund contributes positive economic value to society, given that often their goal is simply to siphon wealth away from the rest of the economy and put it into the pockets of the super rich. Also, it’s hard to make the case that saving high paying hedge fund jobs somehow benefits working people and the middle class. But from the state’s perspective, hedge funds bring revenues and economic activity to the state and therefore are coveted. Since hedge funds can operate wherever they place their people and computers, these jobs are mobile. One leafy suburb near New York and the Hamptons is as good as another. Therefore Connecticut is an easy target for some good old corporate blackmail coming from the richest of the rich. Here are two egregious examples, this time under a Democratic governor: 1. Bridgewater Associates LP, the world’s largest hedge fund gets $22 million: Supposedly this package announced in May 2016 was to induce Bridgewater, a $150 billion hedge fund, to keep 1,400 jobs in Connecticut, and then possibly to add 700 more by 2021. This deal is nothing short of obscene. Ray Dalio, the founder and CEO of Bridgewater, had a reported income of $1.4 billion in 2014. His net worth is $14.1 billion. So the subsidy from the state to his firm amounts to 0.16% of his net worth ― about one tenth of a penny on every wealth dollar. Worse still is that Dalio gets an enormous tax break called “carried interest.” Instead of being liable for a federal tax of 35 percent― before deductions ― on his $1.4 billion ($490 million), his liability is only 20 percent ($280 million). So this hedge fund mogul takes advantage of a needless $210 million federal tax loophole and then still has the nerve to shake down the state for another $22 million. One wonders how Dalio justifies this level of greed. 2. AQR Capital Management gets a new state subsidy of $35 million: Once you bribe one billionaire hedge fund manager, get ready to do it again and again. On November 16, 2016, Connecticut announced a $35 million package of subsidies to another hedge fund that only has 540 jobs in the state but promises to add 600 more over the next ten years. Its CEO, Clifford Asness has a reported net worth of $4 billion. So let’s do the simple math on these corporate bribes: 600 Alcoa = $114,667 per job. 1,400 Bridgewater jobs = $15,714 per job. AQR’s 540 jobs = $64,815 per job Carrier’s $7 million for 800 jobs = $8,750 per job. I hate to say this, but Trump got a deal. Faulty Logic, Flagrant Greed It’s not just conservatives who are using faulty logic and wishful thinking to belittle the jobs saved at Carrier (and perhaps Rexnord too.) For example, Obama’s press secretary Josh Earnest said, “If he [Trump] is successful in doing that 804 more times, then he will meet the record of manufacturing jobs created in the United States while President Obama was in office.” Say what? Earnest should know that new jobs created by the Obama administration aren’t going to the Carrier workers or to most other workers dislocated due to outsourcing. Economy wide job creation is an entirely different process than stopping jobs from moving to Mexico ― something no administration has done since NAFTA. Also, the human experience of losing a decent paying job is one of the most life wrenching events imaginable, and not comparable to finding a new job. Job insecurity correlates with a significant rise in disease and death. You can’t wish that away with macro-statistics. Unfetter Greed and Stock Buybacks Steven Rattner, a liberal Wall Streeter with close ties to the Democratic Party, also ignores the unconscionable greed that is fueling the rush to low-wage labor. He argues that losing Carrier jobs is inevitable, and therefore it is folly to try to save them. “The vast preponderance of American job losses,” he writes in the New York Times, “has come simply because emerging-market countries have gotten much better at making stuff with workers earning far less.” Further, he argues that working people actually benefit by the export of jobs to low wage areas because the goods we import from those countries are far cheaper, thereby increasing the standard of living of all Americans. So some people lose their jobs so that the rest of us can purchase cheaper products and make our declining incomes travel further. Meanwhile Rattner chooses to ignore the prime beneficiaries of moving production abroad: the top executives and their hedge fund partners who drive the process. For example, United Technologies, the parent company of Carrier, is not worried about foreign competition. Rather, its top executives and hedge fund investors are seeking more cash flow to finance the $10 billion stock buyback plan they instituted last year. Stock buybacks always raise share prices to enrich top executives and hedge funds. They are the key to runaway inequality. Instead of justifying Carrier-like job loss, all of these pundits should explain to the America public how those same stock buybacks were illegal before 1982. That’s because they were considered stock manipulation! (Yes, in free markets, you’re not supposed to be able to manipulate the price of anything.) Since the Reagan administration legalized them, stock buybacks jumped from 2% of all corporate profits in 1980 to a whopping 75% of all corporate profits by 2007. There’s nothing inevitable about that. Is protecting middle-class jobs a just cause? One senses hesitancy within the liberal-left community about the righteousness of saving decent paying American jobs. After all if Trump is for it, it must be suspect, no? In a recent Rolling Stone interview Senator Sanders was asked why liberal-minded people should support economic nationalism ― a policy of “our jobs first.” Instead, isn’t it a good thing that jobs from wealthy nations go to raising the standard of living for poor people in Mexico, and other developing nations? Sanders’ response is worth noting: “....I am deeply concerned about poverty in countries around the world, and I believe that the United States and other major countries have got to work to address those issues. But you do not have to sacrifice the American middle class in order to do that. I find it ironic that the billionaire class says, “We’re worried about the poor people in Vietnam, and that’s why we’re sending your job to Vietnam.” That’s the billionaire class talking. Clearly we know what that is about. And you have some “liberals” who echo that point of view.... .... How you create a sustainable global economy that protects the poorest people in the world is a very important issue for me. But you surely do not have to do that by wiping out the middle class of this country. I think we have a right in this country to hold corporate America accountable for gaining the benefits of being an American corporation, while at the same time turning their backs on the American working class and the consumers who helped create their profits and their wealth.” Will Trump Ride the Outsourcing Issue into a Second term? If Trump continues to prevent jobs from fleeing abroad, he will gain increasing support from working class voters, and not just from white people. At Carrier, African-Americans make up 50% of the workforce. Ten percent are immigrants. Half of the assembly line workers are women. These dues-paying members of the United Steelworkers, are not likely to forget who saved their jobs. Outsourcing should be a progressive cause. Conservatives and their corporate backers hate any effort to suppress it. Wall Street elites want us to believe job outsourcing is an act of God, while they line their pockets with stock buybacks. Trump deserves to be attacked for many reasons, but not because he has saved 800 Carrier jobs. We should mobilize around the job outsourcing issue rather than letting him capture it. We should unmask the hypocrites who praise their precious free market while lavishing billions of tax dollars on thousands of corporations. To counter Carrier-like outsourcing, we should be building a movement to again outlaw massive stock buybacks. (For a more detailed plan see here.) (This post originally appeared on Alternet.org) Les Leopold, the director of the Labor Institute, is currently working with unions and community organizations to build the educational infrastructure of a new anti-Wall Street movement. His latest book Runaway Inequality: An Activist Guide to Economic Justice serves as a text for this campaign. All proceeds go to support these educational efforts.   -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

09 декабря, 15:19

DEMS threaten shutdown -- EXCLUSIVE: New DCCC comms director; top candidates for DSCC E.D. -- GOP jockeying to replace CMR -- ROMNEY spotted near Trump Tower -- B’DAY: Terry Moran

Listen to Playbook in 90 Seconds http://bit.ly/2gjREEC … Subscribe on iTunes http://apple.co/2eX6EayGood Friday morning. 42 days until Donald Trump is president.WELCOME TO THE WORLD -- Savannah Guthrie and Mike Feldman welcomed Charles Max Feldman into the world. Pictures, courtesy @TODAYshow http://on.today.com/2gIDdWGYOUR FRIDAY MUST READ -- “10 Crucial Decisions That Reshaped America: Nothing about the most dramatic campaign in memory was a foregone conclusion. The inside story of the pivotal choices that got us to President Trump,” by Glenn Thrush http://politi.co/2hsu0BO **SUBSCRIBE to Playbook: http://politi.co/1M75UbXTO SHUT DOWN, OR NOT TO SHUT DOWN? -- “Dem blockade threatens brief government shutdown,” by Burgess Everett, Seung Min Kim, and Ben Weyl: “Democrats are pushing the government to the brink of a shutdown, with coal country Senate Democrats leading a strategy to oppose a GOP spending bill if their demands aren’t met for a longer extension of expiring health care benefits for coal miners. Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Sherrod Brown (Ohio), two senators up for reelection in 2018 from states won by Donald Trump, are leading the charge to get a better deal from Republican leaders. And their push helped hardened resistance to the GOP throughout the rest of the 46-member Democratic caucus as the day went on. “But Republicans say they will not renegotiate a four-month extension of coal miner health benefits and that Democrats have lost all leverage after the House passed the spending bill, 326-96, and then promptly left town. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell set in motion votes to pass the bill, leaving Democrats only procedural tactics to delay the measure through Friday's funding deadline — which would put Senate Democrats in line to be blamed for a potential government shutdown. Flanked by coal miners during a bitingly cold outdoor press conference on Thursday evening Manchin insisted this is ‘not a shutdown issue’ and maintained he has a ‘strong commitment’ from his Democratic colleagues to stand firm and demand a year-long health care extension.” http://politi.co/2hcbxwV-- Worth noting: House Republicans have taken their last vote of the year, and left down. They passed a bill that would fund the government through April 28.THERE’S BUZZ that Donald Trump will tap Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) to be Interior secretary. If he does, it would have the unintended consequence of sparking what could be one of the most competitive races for House Republican leadership in recent memory. Since McMorris Rodgers -- known in D.C. as CMR -- is the only woman in the top rung of Republican leadership, there would be pressure to replace her with another woman. PEOPLE YOU SHOULD WATCH: Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks, California Rep. Mimi Walters, Tennessee Rep. Marsha Blackburn and Utah Rep. Mia Love. Rachael Bade and Kyle Cheney http://politi.co/2h3XFUT. DSCC EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR -- Sen.-elect Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) has started to interview candidates to run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee -- incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is sitting in on the interviews. Top picks Democrats are talking about: Paul Tencher, who most recently ran Evan Bayh’s race; Brandon Davis, former SEIU political director and DNC chief of staff; Dan McNally, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet 2016 campaign manager; Addisu Demissie, who worked for the Clinton campaign; Mindy Myers, who ran the DSCC I.E.; and Anne Caprara from Priorities. BREAKING OVERNIGHT -- From AP in Seoul, “South Korean president is impeached in stunning fall”: “South Korean lawmakers on Friday impeached President Park Geun-hye, a stunning and swift fall for the country's first female leader amid protests that drew millions into the streets in united fury. After the vote, parliamentary officials hand-delivered formal documents to the presidential Blue House that stripped Park of her power and allowed her No. 2, Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, to assume leadership until the country's Constitutional Court rules on whether Park must permanently step down. The court has up to six months to decide.” http://apne.ws/2grFEPyFOR YOUR RADAR -- “Republicans ready to launch wide-ranging probe of Russia, despite Trump’s stance,” by WaPo’s Karoun Demirjan http://wapo.st/2grIkNkCABINET TALK -- “Trump builds a brass Cabinet: Infatuated with military swagger and Hollywood’s Patton, the president-elect sets outlines of military-run civilian government,” by Shane Goldmacher: “As President-elect Donald Trump began building the top tier of his administration, he has turned to friends and advisers to ask just how many generals would be too many — suggesting he may want to tap as many as five — to fill his Cabinet and the highest rungs of the White House … Even before all his picks are finalized, Trump is on pace to assemble the most military-heavy White House and civilian administration since at least World War II. Military leaders have long held a special allure for Trump, according to people who have spoken to the president-elect both during the formation of his Cabinet and in the years before, including some Hollywood portrayals.” http://politi.co/2haGe2t-- “Trump on Cabinet: ‘I want people that made a fortune’,” by Ken Vogel and Madeline Conway in Des Moines, Iowa: “Donald Trump on Thursday brushed aside concerns that he had tapped too many super-rich people for his cabinet, saying ‘I want people that made a fortune!’ and boasting that he was ‘putting together one of the great cabinets that has ever been assembled in the history of our nation.’ In a campaign-style speech at a convention center here, he playfully rejected criticism that his nominees - a group that includes four billionaires with Thursday's appointment of former wrestling executive Linda McMahon to head the Small Business Administration - are not reflective of the American public. Seemingly focusing on those who would renegotiate trade deals on behalf of his administration, Trump said ‘some of the people I’ve put on to negotiate ... are some of the most successful people in the world.’” http://politi.co/2hc4ww9-- “Romney spotted near Trump Tower amid cabinet talks,” by Page Six’s Emily Smith: “Mitt Romney, still in the running for President-elect Donald Trump’s secretary of state, is certainly hustling for the job. A sharp-suited, carefully coiffed Romney was seen with a briefcase briskly walking on 56th Street, near Fifth Avenue, on Thursday. A witness said, ‘Romney was walking away from Trump Tower and seemed in a hurry, like he didn’t want to be seen.’” http://nyp.st/2gjLi7STRUMP TOWER INTRIGUE -- GABE SHERMAN in NYMag.com, “Trump’s Transition Team ‘Is Like Game of Thrones’”: “According to interviews with seven transition officials and senior Republicans in recent days, the question of whether senior counselor and chief strategist Steve Bannon or chief of staff Reince Priebus — represented by Trump as ‘equal partners’ in the White House — has more power is one that is being widely discussed in Trumpworld. ‘In this administration, titles will not matter,’ one transition staffer said. ‘It’s like Game of Thrones.’ ... Some Trump advisers are dismayed by Priebus’s influence because they question the Washington insider’s loyalty to the president-elect. Three sources told me that shortly after the Access Hollywood tape leaked in early October, Priebus went to Trump’s penthouse and advised the candidate to get out of the race. Priebus told Trump that if he didn’t, he ‘will go down with a worse election loss than Barry Goldwater’s.’” http://nym.ag/2gjdfNa-- @maggieNYT: “The challenge of covering Trump isn’t just whether people are telling truth to reporters. It’s that advisers are at times lying to each other”WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE … -- “Trump ‘originals’ say they’re getting frozen out,” by Alex Isenstadt and Ken Vogel: “[A]s President-elect Donald Trump builds out his administration, the loyalists who helped launch his campaign and powered its stunning early victories are growing worried they won’t be getting plum jobs. Many of them say they’ve heard nothing about their career prospects and, during furtive huddles, have been commiserating with one another about how they can’t seem to get their calls to top Trump transition brass returned. Some are convinced that party establishment figures who’ve taken the reins of the transition are giving them short shrift ...“That includes people like George Gigicos, Trump’s director of advance; Michael Glassner, the former deputy campaign manager; and Stuart Jolly, the former national field director. The staffers who led Trump’s campaign in early primary states — like Matt Ciepielowski, Charles Munoz and James Merrill — haven’t been offered positions, either. Nor has Mike Rubino, who oversaw Trump’s campaign in several states, or Stephanie Milligan, who ran his Oklahoma campaign.” http://politi.co/2gjdAiX HOW ABOUT THAT… -- “Trump Paid Nearly $2.9 Million to Family-Owned Businesses as Campaign Wound Down: Trump also gave $10 million to his campaign in the final weeks of the election,” by WSJ’s Rebecca Ballhaus. http://on.wsj.com/2hsvsEg RNC WATCH -- “Trump zeroes in on RNC chair pick,” by Eliana Johnson, Ken Vogel and Alex Isenstadt: “The Republican National Committee may sit on Capitol Hill, but its fate is being decided in Manhattan, where the field of contenders to run it has narrowed to two leading candidates, Michigan GOP chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel and Nick Ayers, a Republican operative currently serving as an aide to Vice President-elect Mike Pence. High in Trump Tower, dueling factions in President-elect Donald Trump’s orbit have lined up behind each of the candidates, according to half a dozen people familiar with the discussions. The situation is fluid, transition sources cautioned: Others in the mix include RNC official Matt Pinnell and veteran Bush operative Mercedes Schlapp, whose names are being floated as potential co-chairs as the two sides work toward a solution.” http://politi.co/2hmqjlcHILL WATCH -- “Free-market Republicans contort to defend Trump: Lawmakers who slammed Barack Obama’s stimulus say they’re fine with Trump’s — among other ideological accommodations they’re making for the president-elect,” by Rachael Bade and Jake Sherman. http://politi.co/2hsohfp AARON SCHOCK will not be silenced! The former congressman, who has been indicted on 24 criminal counts that essentially allege he used his public office to make money, filed opposition to a gag order requested by the government ahead of his arraignment next week. Our favorite line: “[T]he government suggested that Mr. Schock sought to ‘screen himself’ from public scrutiny and turn himself into a ‘super-citizen, immune from criminal responsibility.’ … Comments such as these were picked up and repeated in the media, where coverage has been extensively one-sided.”FIRST IN PLAYBOOK -- ANDY KEISER, former deputy national security adviser for the Trump for America transition team, is joining Navigators Global as a principal of the firm. Keiser also served as chief of staff to former House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) and senior adviser to the committee. -- MEREDITH KELLY, the DCCC’s national press secretary last cycle and an alum of Sen. Chuck Schumer’s communications shop, has signed on to be the party committee’s communications director for the 2018 cycle. From DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján: “Meredith is a smart tactician and her aggressive approach put House Republicans on defense last cycle. I know that she will play a crucial role in driving strategy that protects our incumbents and maximizes House Democratic gains in 2018.”BUZZ -- Tim Huelskamp, who lost his primary in Kansas, is talking about running for Rep. Mike Pompeo’s House seat. Pompeo is Trump’s nominee for CIA director.HOT DOCS -- Marlene Ricketts gave Speaker Paul Ryan’s main political committee $100,000 on Oct. 25. Facnudo Bacardi gave him $25,000 on Oct. 24… Hotelier Andre Balazs gave Hillary Clinton $100,000 on Oct. 27 … New York supermarket magnate John Catsimatidis gave Clinton $50,000 on Oct. 25 … Ted Leonsis, the owner of the Capitals and Wizards, and his wife gave Clinton $100,000 on Oct. 28 … Trump’s victory fund got $249,000 from Robert Johnson of the Johnson Company … Bridget Rooney Koch gave Trump’s victory effort $50,000 … Ray Washburne kicked in $50,000-- FINAL TALLY by POLITICO’s Isaac Arnsdorf: “Clinton and her allies, including her joint committees with the Democratic Party and the super PACs supporting her, raised more than $1.2 billion for the full [2016] cycle, according to the last reports filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission. Trump and his allies collected about $600 million.” http://politi.co/2hcDrXbHAPPENING TODAY -- Donald Trump is holding a rally in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, at 10 a.m. followed by a 7 p.m. rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan. … Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel will participate in a Brookings Institution discussion on cities in the age of Trump and Brexit at 10 a.m. today http://brook.gs/2h3TkRI VIDEO DU JOUR -- “Harry Reid Senate Farewell Speech 12/8/16” http://bit.ly/2hdnsIp FIRST PERSON – CHUCK JONES in the WaPo, “I’m the union leader Donald Trump attacked. I’m tired of being lied to about our jobs”: “Though Trump said he’d saved 1,100 jobs, he hadn’t. Carrier told us that 550 people would get laid off. Trump didn’t tell people that, though. When he spoke at our plant, he acted like no one was going to lose their job. People went crazy for him. They thought, because of Trump, I’m going to be able to provide for my family. All the while, I’m sitting there, thinking that’s not what the damn numbers say.” http://wapo.st/2gI91uV --“Carrier to ultimately cut some of jobs Trump saved,” by CNN Money’s Chris Isidore: “The company’s deal with President-elect Donald Trump to keep a furnace plant from moving to Mexico also calls for a $16 million investment in the facility. But that has a big down side for some of the workers in Indianapolis. Most of that money will be invested in automation said to Greg Hayes, CEO of United Technologies, Carrier’’ corporate parent. And that automation will replace some of the jobs that were just saved.” http://cnnmon.ie/2hc1Ezi MUST READ -- “This is what happens when Donald Trump attacks a private citizen on Twitter,” by WaPo’s Jenna Johnson: “About a year ago, 18-year-old college student Lauren Batchelder stood up at a political forum in New Hampshire and told Donald Trump that she didn’t think he was ‘a friend to women.’ The next morning, Trump fired back on Twitter — calling Batchelder an ‘arrogant young woman’ and accusing her of being a ‘plant’ from a rival campaign. Her phone began ringing with callers leaving threatening messages that were often sexual in nature. Her Facebook and email inboxes filled with similar messages. As her addresses circulated on social media and her photo flashed on the news, she fled home to hide. ... This is what happens when Trump targets a private citizen who publicly challenges him.” http://wapo.st/2hc1wzD REMEMBERING JOHN GLENN -- NYT’s John Noble Wilford, who also wrote the Times front-page moon landing story (!) in 1969: “John Glenn, a freckle-faced son of Ohio who was hailed as a national hero and a symbol of the space age as the first American to orbit Earth, then became a national political figure for 24 years in the Senate, died on Thursday in Columbus, Ohio. ... In just five hours on Feb. 20, 1962, Mr. Glenn joined a select roster of Americans whose feats have seized the country’s imagination and come to embody a moment in its history, figures like Lewis and Clark, the Wright brothers and Charles Lindbergh. To the America of the 1960s, Mr. Glenn was a clean-cut, good-natured, well-grounded Midwesterner, raised in Presbyterian rectitude, nurtured in patriotism and tested in war, who stepped forward to risk the unknown and succeeded spectacularly, lifting his country’s morale and restoring its self-confidence.” http://nyti.ms/2grl4in TRUMP INC. -- “Donald Trump to Remain Executive Producer on ‘Celebrity Apprentice,’” by Variety’s Cynthia Littleton: “NBC’s ‘Celebrity Apprentice’ ... is returning Jan. 2 after a two-year hiatus with new host Arnold Schwarzenegger. MGM confirmed to Variety that Trump has retained his EP credit on the series. ... The larger issue for MGM, NBC, and the White House is the payment that Trump will receive for the series. It’s unclear what his per-episode fee is, but it is likely to be in the low five-figures, at minimum.” http://bit.ly/2hmbzCO … Trailer for the new season http://bit.ly/2gIAM6FK-FILE – “Michael Flynn once claimed Arabic signs on southern border guide ‘radicalized Muslims’ into US,” by CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski: http://cnn.it/2grhbdqHMM -- C.T. POST: “Report: Bobby Valentine pitched as Japan ambassador”: Bobby Valentine as U.S. ambassador to Japan? WEEI.com reports that multiple sources are telling the Boston station that Valentine is on a short-list of candidates for the job of United States Ambassador to Japan. The 66-year-old, who currently serves as Sacred Heart University’s athletics director, has engaged in ‘preliminary discussions’ with President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team regarding the position. When contacted Thursday night, Valentine refused comment.” http://bit.ly/2grKzAb -- NOTE: Valentine is a former manager of the Mets and Red Sox. He also managed a team in Japan and is from Stamford, Connecticut.DAVID CORN in Mother Jones, “Does Donald Trump Believe Nuclear War Is Inevitable? The man about to take control of US nukes has a very fatalistic view”: “During a 1990 interview with Playboy, he was asked about running for president (yes, even then) and to describe what ‘would be some of President Trump's longer-term views of the future.’ Trump replied, ‘I think of the future, but I refuse to paint it. Anything can happen. But I often think of nuclear war.’” http://bit.ly/2haiQSH … The interview http://bit.ly/2hcedKKICYMI -- “How Trump got yanked into GOP’s IRS impeachment fight,” by John Bresnahan and Rachael Bade: “In the frenzied hours as the impeachment showdown neared, multiple conversations ensued between Priebus and Freedom Caucus leaders. There are conflicting accounts of where the outgoing Republican Party chairman came down. GOP leaders say Priebus remained opposed to [John] Koskinen’s impeachment. Freedom Caucus sources counter that Priebus called them back several times to retract any such opposition and say Trump’s inner circle would remain neutral.” http://politi.co/2han2Ss LIVE FROM WALL STREET -- “Eric Cantor column: Rebuilding a responsive Virginia GOP” in the Richmond Times Dispatch with the header “Turn Virginia Red Again” http://bit.ly/2gjMZlN FRED SMITH SPEAKS -- From our Morning Trade colleagues: “The free-traders are fighting back. In a speech this morning at the National Competitiveness Forum, Fedex Chairman Fred Smith extols the benefits of trade and free trade agreements in sunnily optimistic terms that stand in stark contrast to President-elect Donald Trump’s dark view of the pacts. ‘Trade has made America great, and expanding trade has been a bi-partisan pursuit for over 80 years,’ Smith plans to tell the Washington meeting, according to excerpts … The 72-year-old business leader warns that withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement, as Trump has threatened to do, ‘would be catastrophic for the U.S. economy’ and expresses hope the 23-year-old pact will be ‘updated and strengthened’ instead.”HILLARY ALUMNI -- “Former Clinton staffer launches new anti-Trump site: corrupt.af,” by Blake Hounshell: “Matt Ortega, who served as Clinton’s digital director for communications until he left the campaign in June, told POLITICO that he launched the site ‘completely on my own and out of my own pocket.’ Officially, the ‘af’ in the site’s web address is the country code for Afghanistan ... Unofficially, in the abbreviated argot of texting and online chatting, ‘af’ stands for ‘as f***.’” http://politi.co/2hs3V5S PRESIDENT OBAMA will appear next Monday on “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah,” in an interview that will be taped at the White House. http://on.cc.com/2gqB2t8MEGATRENDS – “Barely Half of 30-Year-Olds Earn More Than Their Parents,” by WSJ’s Bob Davis: “In 1970, 92% of American 30-year-olds earned more than their parents did at a similar age, they found. In 2014, that number fell to 51%.” http://on.wsj.com/2hdnUX2 MEDIAWATCH -- “Could a Last-Minute Suitor Woo Megyn Kelly Away from Fox News?” by Vanity Fair’s Sarah Ellison: “Within the last month, according to a person familiar with the discussions, ABC has renewed, and perhaps sweetened, its effort to woo Kelly. At one point, in an overture, Kelly was shown a recruitment presentation depicting the so-called legends of ABC, which started, oddly enough, with an image of Willy Wonka, and ended with one of Kelly.” http://bit.ly/2hmd1VM --“Clinton decries fake news ‘epidemic,’” by Elana Schor: “‘This is not about politics or partisanship,’ Clinton said during remarks at a tribute to retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). ‘Lives are at risk.’” http://politi.co/2gI9mxw --The owner of Comet Ping Pong has created a GoFundMe campaign http://bit.ly/2grn0Yp --NYT Business Day front, “Nonprofit Journalism Groups Are Gearing Up With Flood of Donations,” by Nicholas Fandos: “At the Center for Public Integrity in Washington and its international investigative arm, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, individual donations are up about 70 percent compared to the same period last year. ... From local public radio affiliates to established watchdog groups to start-ups that focus on a single issue, nonprofit, nonpartisan media is having a moment.” http://nyti.ms/2hdmo7a --BuzzFeed has hired Anthony Cormier, most recently an investigative reporter at the Tampa Bay Times, and Nancy Youssef, currently of the Daily Beast and formerly with McClatchy. http://politi.co/2hmGWx8 -- “The Washington Post honors David Fahrenthold with inaugural Ben Bradlee Prize”: http://wapo.st/2h3VxfITHE LEGENDARY JOHN MARKOFF on Medium, “I Covered Tech for the Times for 28 Years, And Now My Time Is Over”: http://bit.ly/2hc9rNESPOTTED: Ronan Farrow with Rich McHugh at the Ritz yesterday ... The Denver Nuggets staying at the Ritz Carlton in the West End … Frank Luntz at DCA boarding a 10:25 a.m. flight to Charlotte … Jay Carney last night at the Smithsonian’s American Ingenuity Awards at the National Portrait Gallery (Jeff Bezos was one of the winners) -- Mary Jordan, Jay Newton-Small, Kimball Stroud, Chris Wilson, Nika Nour, and Suhail Khan also attendedOUT AND ABOUT -- SPOTTED at the VIP grand opening party for the MGM National Harbor last night: former Speaker John Boehner, Geoff Freeman, Michael Steele, Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD), former Sen. John Warner (R-Va.), CBC chair Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), Rep.-elect Ruben Kiheun (D-Nev.), former Ambassador Andrew Young, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Maryland Senate President Mike Miller, Baltimore Mayor, Stephanie Rawlings–Blake, Roger Dow, Wolf and Lynn Blitzer, Jerome Bettis, Sarah Jessica Parker, Marcus Samuelsson, Jose Andrés, Tom Burr, Jeffrey Ballou, Ryan Zimmerman, Heather Zimmerman, Tammy Haddad, Marc Adelman, Ambassador Peter Selfridge, Franco Nuschese, Andrea Roane, Steve Chenevey, Jim Murren, Erin Como, Chris Smith, Kate Bennett. Pic of Boehner http://bit.ly/2hsmGGi ... Two pix by Dan Swartz – outside of the hotel: http://bit.ly/2hmGsXD ... View of the hotel tower through the skyglass of the casino atrium http://bit.ly/2hsELnP SUNDAY SO FAR -- “Fox News Sunday”: Exclusive with Donald Trump ... Panel: George Will ... Julie Pace, Jason Riley, Charles LaneCNN’s “State of the Union”: Exclusive with Vice President Joe Biden ... Panel: Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Dana Loesch, Marc Morial--CNN’s “Inside Politics,” anchored by John King: Jen Jacobs, Mary Katharine Ham, Matt Viser, Manu Raju--ABC’s “This Week”: Reince Priebus ... panel: E.J. Dionne, Sarah Huckabee, Rich Lowry, Jamal Simmons--CBS’ “Face the Nation”: Kellyanne Conway, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)--NBC’s “Meet the Press”: Gov. Jerry Brown (D-Calif.) ... Mike Rowe ... panel: Michael Lewis ... Rick Stengel ... Kimberley StrasselOBAMA ALUMNI -- MIKE BLAKE, a N.Y. State assemblyman, is running for DNC vice chairman. He was the Iowa caucus deputy political director for Obama in 2008, and then worked in the Office of Intergovernmental Affairs and Public Engagement in the White House. Press release http://politi.co/2gjjJvx WELCOME TO THE WORLD – Ed Mullen, partner at The Georgetown Group and Erin Book Mullen, principal at Williams and Jensen, on Wednesday welcomed Caroline Caldwell “CC” Mullen. Her big sister Amelia turns two later this month. Pic http://politi.co/2hajLCJ-- Richard VanOrnum, a director in APCO Worldwide’s DC office, just welcomed a new addition to his family. “We checked into the hospital Monday at 4:00 pm and welcomed baby Hunter into the world about 30 hours [on Tuesday] night! He was born 8lbs, 14 oz. and is an alert, happy, healthy (and hungry!) baby.” Pic http://bit.ly/2h8JJJQ OUT AND ABOUT -- CNN’s Jake Tapper, Sam Feist, Ed O’Keefe, Rachel Smolkin and Brian Stelter last night celebrated the first book by CNN Politics, “Unprecedented: The Election That Changed Everything” (out Dec. 6), with a party at Del Frisco’s Double Eagle. Pre-order -- $25.47 on Amazon http://amzn.to/2gIpsaB SPOTTED: Jonathan Martin, Betsy Fischer Martin, Al Cardenas, Mike Shields, Jeffrey Lord, John Tass-Parker, Armstrong Williams, Sergio Gor, Ashley Parker, Ben Ginsberg, Alice Stewart, Ana Navarro, Amanda Carpenter, Brittany Bramell, Bill Press, Steven Sloan, Amos Snead, Lauren Pratapas, Jennifer Tapper, Polson Kanneth, Ben Ginsberg, Rob Collins, Juana Summers, David Chalian, Roger Simon. HOLIDAY PARTY CIRCUIT -- Bruce Josten celebrated his last Chamber holiday party after 42 years of service. SPOTTED: President and CEO Tom Donohue, Jack Howard, Sen. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, Rick and Debbie Hohlt, Elizabeth Hays Taylor, Josh Holmes, John Ashbrook, Lauren Ehrsam, Jared Parks, Tommy Joyce, Michael Duncan, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga), Kevin McLaughlin, Zach Graves, Chris Merida, Bill Behrens, Stephen Aaron, Carl Hulse, Alex Conant, Gregg Nunziata, Eli Yokley, Robert Flock, Evan Hollander, Lauren Weber, Patrick Kilcur, Reid Wilson.-- SPOTTED at the Blair House (“The President’s Guest House”) State Department holiday party last night: Peter Selfridge, Tom Kartsotis, Tammy Haddad, Ben Chang, Jeannie Rangel, Lena Lee, Larry La and Alisa La, Tim Lowery and Michael Zingali, Natalie Jones, Mike Hammer, Thomas Debass, Gary Lee, Kate Gage, Marc Adelman, Fran Holuba, Amy Selco, Ann Stock. Pics -- the recipe for George and Martha Washington’s holiday eggnog: http://bit.ly/2h4eDT5 … The gingerbread house http://bit.ly/2ghNJmV --PIC from Wednesday night’s White House holiday press party - reunion shot of party attendees who have worked for Obama: http://bit.ly/2grN855BGR GROUP celebrated its 25th anniversary at the St Regis Hotel on Thursday evening. Former Gov. Haley Barbour, a founder of the firm, joked in his remarks that as a lawyer, politician and lobbyist he had achieved the “trifecta.”SPOTTED: North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, Harold Ickes, Texas Rep. Mike Burgess, Ted Olson, Susie DeFrancis, former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, North Dakota Sen. John Hoeven, West Virginia Rep. Evan Jenkins and Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, Tammy Haddad, Ted Olson.BIRTHDAYS OF THE DAY: former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.) is 69 -- he’s celebrating with his team from The Daschle Group over lunch and then having a nice dinner with his wife Linda, and some friends -- read his Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2gjJcFh ... Terry Moran, chief foreign correspondent for ABC News, celebrating at home with his wife and four kids – Playbook Plus Q&A: http://politi.co/2gIA213BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) is 5-0 ... Nathan Daschle (h/t dad Tom) … Samantha Tubman (h/t Meredith Carden) … Treasury alum Neal Wolin, now a senior counselor for Brunswick Group, is 55 … Jonathan Wald, EP at “CNN Tonight” ... N.H. political reporter James Pindell of the Boston Globe and the pride of New Castle, Ind. ... Jeff Smith, “Mr. Smith Goes to Prison” author and proud St. Louis native, is 43 … Cris Turner, VP and head of office of Americas gov’t affairs at Dell ... Kyle Roberts, president of Smart Media Group ... Treasury's John E. Smith (h/t Peter Baker) ... Politico alum Emily Kopp ... Okla. Gov. Mary Fallin is 62 ... Rep. Pete Olson (R-Tex.) is 54 ... former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Tex.) is 7-0 ... Levick VP Andrew Ricci ... Laena Fallon, VP of comms. at the Financial Services Forum, a Cantor and Judd Gregg alum and a native Granite Stater … Kathryn Cameron Porter ... Fernando Lujan ... Richard Allen Smith ... Graham Wilson, DLCC’s national field director ... Veronique “media maven” Rodman … Arlington Commonwealth’s Attorney Josh Katcher … … Ryan Whalen, once a Chuck Schumer body guy, Mayor Bloomberg alum, and now director of initiatives and strategy at The Rockefeller Foundation … Pie Sister Alli Blakely Sydnor is 37 (h/t Ed Cash) ... Karen Harbert, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber’s Institute for 21st Century Energy (h/t Blair Latoff Holmes) ... Megan Devlin of the Meridian International Center, formerly at the Atlantic (h/t Ben Chang) ... Shoshana Weissmann, digital director at Opportunity Lives and Weekly Standard alum, is 24 ... Roll Call’s Eric Garcia, a National Journal alum, is 26 (h/t Tara Jeffries) ... Dottie Suggs ... Tricia Enright (h/ts Jon Haber) ... Derrick Johnson … Bush 43 WH alum Anne Dudro, now a senior associate at HCM Strategists ... Richard Wachtel is 34 ... Rhett Dawson ... Rick Horten is 48 ... Dawn Wilson ... Diane Kopp ... Robert Kraig (h/ts Teresa Vilmain) ... Kirk Douglas is 100 … Dame Judi Dench is 82 … Beau Bridges is 75 … John Malkovich is 63 (h/ts AP)

09 декабря, 01:16

Defense Stock Roundup: Boeing, Lockheed Martin Steal the Show; United Tech Clinches a Big Win

The majority of the prime defense securities put up a mixed show last week.

08 декабря, 23:35

Основные фондовые индексы США в последний час торгуются в зеленой зоне:

Компоненты индекса DOW преимущественно в минусе (16 из 30). Больше остальных выросли акции The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS, +2.30%). Аутсайдером являются акции United Technologies Corporation (UTX, -1.08%). Большинство сектора индекса S&P в плюсе. Лидером является сектор конгломератов (+1.7%). Больше всего упал сектор промышленных товаров (-0.3%). Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

08 декабря, 21:18

Rexnord Workers Worry Trump's Feud With Union President Could Cost Jobs

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); John Feltner was working his shift as a machinist at the Rexnord ball bearings factory in Indianapolis Wednesday night when word spread that President-elect Donald Trump had sent mean tweets about the union’s president.   Feltner said workers were upset that Chuck Jones, president of the United Steelworkers Local 1999, had gotten onto Trump’s bad side, since many believe the president-elect is their only hope of not getting fired next year.  “There was a lot of dissent in the plant that politics are replacing the task at hand as far as saving jobs,” Feltner said. “Everybody was in the plant going, ‘What the hell’s he doing?’”  Feltner and several other Rexnord workers told The Huffington Post they were stunned last week when Carrier Corporation, which owns a furnace plant about a mile from their bearings factory, announced that Trump had convinced the company not to close the plant and send all its jobs ― roughly 1,400 ― to Mexico.  The announcement gave Rexnord workers hope for their own jobs, which the company has also been planning to shift to Mexico next year. A key reason for their hope is that Carrier and Rexnord workers are both represented by Jones and the Local 1999. (The union had been shut out of the negotiations.)  Trump posted a tweet about Rexnord’s “vicious” layoffs on Friday, though the company hasn’t been talking to the press and appears to be proceeding with its Mexico plans.  Jones has praised Trump, but he’s also criticized the president-elect for exaggerating the number of jobs saved by his intervention with Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies. Jones said earlier this week that Trump “lied his ass off” by claiming the deal, which included state tax breaks for the company, preserved 1,100 Carrier positions. The real number is actually 800, meaning at least 500 Carrier workers will still be losing their jobs. Despite what Trump himself has said, a Trump spokesman confirmed the numbers to HuffPost last week.  On Wednesday night, shortly after Jones explained the jobs numbers on CNN, Trump tweeted that Jones has “done a terrible job representing workers.” The tweet also blamed manufacturing job losses on unions, even though Trump spent the entire campaign blaming them on bad trade deals. Trump didn’t say Jones was wrong.  Though he wished Trump hadn’t gotten mad at Jones, Feltner said Jones was still right about the numbers. So did other Rexnord workers.  “I voted for Trump, but Trump’s the one who said he was gonna keep those jobs here in the country,” Tim Mathis said, noting that more people are still getting laid off than having their jobs saved.  “I stand with Chuck. Chuck’s exactly right,” said Mathis, who has worked as a machinist at Rexnord for 12 years. “President-elect Trump needs to use a little more caution as far as attacking people on Twitter.”  The stakes are high. Mathis said supervisors from Rexnord’s Mexico facility have been touring the Indianapolis plant and that the company wants its workers to train their replacements in return for their severance packages. The factory is slated to close next year.  “That’s a kick in the pants,” Mathis said. “Tensions are starting to get high in the shop.” Don Zering, who is the president of Local 1999 workers at Rexnord, said it’s important for people following the story to know that while the union is thrilled Trump saved 800 jobs, it’s not happy that 300 people are getting laid off from Rexnord, 500 from Carrier, and 700 from another United Technologies subsidiary in Huntington, Indiana.  “We’re talking about families losing their livelihood,” Zering said.  Jones, for his part, said he’s been getting threatening phone calls from Trump supporters since Tuesday, and that the messages “kicked up” a bit after Trump tweeted. But he doesn’t regret standing up to Trump.  “If I had to do it all over again, maybe I would use little better choice of words ― but probably not,” he said. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

08 декабря, 21:18

Rexnord Workers Worry Trump's Feud With Union President Could Cost Jobs

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); John Feltner was working his shift as a machinist at the Rexnord ball bearings factory in Indianapolis Wednesday night when word spread that President-elect Donald Trump had sent mean tweets about the union’s president.   Feltner said workers were upset that Chuck Jones, president of the United Steelworkers Local 1999, had gotten onto Trump’s bad side, since many believe the president-elect is their only hope of not getting fired next year.  “There was a lot of dissent in the plant that politics are replacing the task at hand as far as saving jobs,” Feltner said. “Everybody was in the plant going, ‘What the hell’s he doing?’”  Feltner and several other Rexnord workers told The Huffington Post they were stunned last week when Carrier Corporation, which owns a furnace plant about a mile from their bearings factory, announced that Trump had convinced the company not to close the plant and send all its jobs ― roughly 1,400 ― to Mexico.  The announcement gave Rexnord workers hope for their own jobs, which the company has also been planning to shift to Mexico next year. A key reason for their hope is that Carrier and Rexnord workers are both represented by Jones and the Local 1999. (The union had been shut out of the negotiations.)  Trump posted a tweet about Rexnord’s “vicious” layoffs on Friday, though the company hasn’t been talking to the press and appears to be proceeding with its Mexico plans.  Jones has praised Trump, but he’s also criticized the president-elect for exaggerating the number of jobs saved by his intervention with Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies. Jones said earlier this week that Trump “lied his ass off” by claiming the deal, which included state tax breaks for the company, preserved 1,100 Carrier positions. The real number is actually 800, meaning at least 500 Carrier workers will still be losing their jobs. Despite what Trump himself has said, a Trump spokesman confirmed the numbers to HuffPost last week.  On Wednesday night, shortly after Jones explained the jobs numbers on CNN, Trump tweeted that Jones has “done a terrible job representing workers.” The tweet also blamed manufacturing job losses on unions, even though Trump spent the entire campaign blaming them on bad trade deals. Trump didn’t say Jones was wrong.  Though he wished Trump hadn’t gotten mad at Jones, Feltner said Jones was still right about the numbers. So did other Rexnord workers.  “I voted for Trump, but Trump’s the one who said he was gonna keep those jobs here in the country,” Tim Mathis said, noting that more people are still getting laid off than having their jobs saved.  “I stand with Chuck. Chuck’s exactly right,” said Mathis, who has worked as a machinist at Rexnord for 12 years. “President-elect Trump needs to use a little more caution as far as attacking people on Twitter.”  The stakes are high. Mathis said supervisors from Rexnord’s Mexico facility have been touring the Indianapolis plant and that the company wants its workers to train their replacements in return for their severance packages. The factory is slated to close next year.  “That’s a kick in the pants,” Mathis said. “Tensions are starting to get high in the shop.” Don Zering, who is the president of Local 1999 workers at Rexnord, said it’s important for people following the story to know that while the union is thrilled Trump saved 800 jobs, it’s not happy that 300 people are getting laid off from Rexnord, 500 from Carrier, and 700 from another United Technologies subsidiary in Huntington, Indiana.  “We’re talking about families losing their livelihood,” Zering said.  Jones, for his part, said he’s been getting threatening phone calls from Trump supporters since Tuesday, and that the messages “kicked up” a bit after Trump tweeted. But he doesn’t regret standing up to Trump.  “If I had to do it all over again, maybe I would use little better choice of words ― but probably not,” he said. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

08 декабря, 18:09

Will Trump's Victory Spell Doom for Lockheed Martin's F-35?

Lockheed Martin Corp.'s (LMT) F-35 has been in the headlines for quite some time, on account of consistently underperforming in key tests.

08 декабря, 16:33

Are Carrier Jobs In Indianapolis The First Stage Of A Manufacturing Upswing Under Trump?

President-elect Donald Trump announced last week that air conditioner maker Carrier Corp., a division of United Technologies, would keep hundreds of factory jobs in Indianapolis rather than shutting down the plant there and shifting the jobs to Mexico as planned. Employees of Carrier watch as President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect [...]

07 декабря, 22:37

Donald Trump Said He Can Call Every Company Planning To Leave The U.S.

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― President-elect Donald Trump has asked his chief of staff to get him a list of every American company that has plans to shift production to another country. “Hey, Reince, I want to get a list of companies that have announced they’re leaving,” Trump said to Reince Priebus last week in the middle of an on-the-record interview with Time magazine that was published on Wednesday. “I can call them myself,” Trump said. “Five minutes apiece. They won’t be leaving. O.K.?” Trump had just struck a deal with Carrier Corporation to stop the company from closing its factory in Indiana, saving 800 American jobs. As part of the process, Trump had called up the CEO of United Technologies, Carrier’s parent company, and asked him to reconsider.  If Trump is going to spend five minutes on the phone with every CEO of every company that’s planning to shift production abroad, he’s going to be on the phone for many hours, because Carrier’s case is not at all unusual. Rexnord Corporation is a symbol of the challenge confronting Trump. The company, which owns a plant about a mile from Carrier’s furnace factory, is planning to lay off 300 workers and close the factory next year.  Trump has already put Rexnord on notice, firing a warning shot via Twitter on Friday.  “Rexnord of Indiana is moving to Mexico and rather viciously firing all of its 300 workers,” Trump tweeted. “This is happening all over our country. No more!” The company has not responded to repeated requests for comment.  Draper Alumbaugh, who has worked at Rexnord for 13 years, said the company’s Mexico plan is pure corporate greed, since the company is profitable. He voted for the president-elect because of Trump’s promise to stop companies from offshoring jobs, and he’s grateful for Trump’s efforts so far ― but even after the Carrier deal he’s skeptical that Rexnord can be stopped. “I don’t think he’ll save the jobs. I just don’t think there’s enough of us,” Alumbaugh, 37, said in an interview.   Another problem Alumbaugh sees is that Rexnord doesn’t do nearly as much federal contracting as United Technologies does, meaning Trump will have less leverage in the form of threatening to withhold revenue.  “I think that he might make an attempt, because how bad would it look if he didn’t? I mean we’re in the same union, a half a block away from Carrier,” Alumbaugh said.  The United Steelworkers Local 1999 represents workers at both companies. Chuck Jones, president of the Local 1999, said he believes Trump’s public statements about stopping Rexnord and companies like it from offshoring jobs amount to a clear promise to Rexnord workers. “President-elect Trump said numerous times that none of these companies are gonna leave this country, so we’re gonna hold him to his word on that,” Jones said in an interview. “We haven’t gave up the fight by no means on Rexnord or the remaining jobs at Carrier.” United Technologies is still planning to lay off more than 1,000 workers next year, despite the agreement with Trump, which included tax breaks from the state of Indiana.  It’s a scenario playing out across the country. This year, the U.S. Labor Department has certified petitions for Trade Adjustment Assistance for workers at more than 1,000 firms cutting jobs due to foreign trade. Some of the petitions are for workers whose jobs or hours have been cut because of cheaper imports, but most are for workers at firms shifting production abroad. The trade assistance certifications give laid off workers access to unemployment insurance and retraining programs.  Instead of spending hours and hours on the phone, a shortcut for Trump would be to impose tariffs on imports from companies that offshore jobs, something he has said he would do. But economists say such a strategy would cause other countries to impose tariffs on U.S. exports, starting a trade war that would cost millions of jobs. Economists also generally blame automation for manufacturing job losses more than they blame foreign trade.  Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), who has pleaded with Trump not to ignore workers losing their jobs at other Indiana plants, told The Huffington Post he’s still hopeful about Rexnord. Last month, he said, he had a meeting with the company but didn’t make much headway.  “I appreciate President-elect Trump’s working together with us on this and we’re hoping to get it done,” Donnelly said.   -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 декабря, 22:37

Donald Trump Said He Can Call Every Company Planning To Leave The U.S.

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― President-elect Donald Trump has asked his chief of staff to get him a list of every American company that has plans to shift production to another country. “Hey, Reince, I want to get a list of companies that have announced they’re leaving,” Trump said to Reince Priebus last week in the middle of an on-the-record interview with Time magazine that was published on Wednesday. “I can call them myself,” Trump said. “Five minutes apiece. They won’t be leaving. O.K.?” Trump had just struck a deal with Carrier Corporation to stop the company from closing its factory in Indiana, saving 800 American jobs. As part of the process, Trump had called up the CEO of United Technologies, Carrier’s parent company, and asked him to reconsider.  If Trump is going to spend five minutes on the phone with every CEO of every company that’s planning to shift production abroad, he’s going to be on the phone for many hours, because Carrier’s case is not at all unusual. Rexnord Corporation is a symbol of the challenge confronting Trump. The company, which owns a plant about a mile from Carrier’s furnace factory, is planning to lay off 300 workers and close the factory next year.  Trump has already put Rexnord on notice, firing a warning shot via Twitter on Friday.  “Rexnord of Indiana is moving to Mexico and rather viciously firing all of its 300 workers,” Trump tweeted. “This is happening all over our country. No more!” The company has not responded to repeated requests for comment.  Draper Alumbaugh, who has worked at Rexnord for 13 years, said the company’s Mexico plan is pure corporate greed, since the company is profitable. He voted for the president-elect because of Trump’s promise to stop companies from offshoring jobs, and he’s grateful for Trump’s efforts so far ― but even after the Carrier deal he’s skeptical that Rexnord can be stopped. “I don’t think he’ll save the jobs. I just don’t think there’s enough of us,” Alumbaugh, 37, said in an interview.   Another problem Alumbaugh sees is that Rexnord doesn’t do nearly as much federal contracting as United Technologies does, meaning Trump will have less leverage in the form of threatening to withhold revenue.  “I think that he might make an attempt, because how bad would it look if he didn’t? I mean we’re in the same union, a half a block away from Carrier,” Alumbaugh said.  The United Steelworkers Local 1999 represents workers at both companies. Chuck Jones, president of the Local 1999, said he believes Trump’s public statements about stopping Rexnord and companies like it from offshoring jobs amount to a clear promise to Rexnord workers. “President-elect Trump said numerous times that none of these companies are gonna leave this country, so we’re gonna hold him to his word on that,” Jones said in an interview. “We haven’t gave up the fight by no means on Rexnord or the remaining jobs at Carrier.” United Technologies is still planning to lay off more than 1,000 workers next year, despite the agreement with Trump, which included tax breaks from the state of Indiana.  It’s a scenario playing out across the country. This year, the U.S. Labor Department has certified petitions for Trade Adjustment Assistance for workers at more than 1,000 firms cutting jobs due to foreign trade. Some of the petitions are for workers whose jobs or hours have been cut because of cheaper imports, but most are for workers at firms shifting production abroad. The trade assistance certifications give laid off workers access to unemployment insurance and retraining programs.  Instead of spending hours and hours on the phone, a shortcut for Trump would be to impose tariffs on imports from companies that offshore jobs, something he has said he would do. But economists say such a strategy would cause other countries to impose tariffs on U.S. exports, starting a trade war that would cost millions of jobs. Economists also generally blame automation for manufacturing job losses more than they blame foreign trade.  Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), who has pleaded with Trump not to ignore workers losing their jobs at other Indiana plants, told The Huffington Post he’s still hopeful about Rexnord. Last month, he said, he had a meeting with the company but didn’t make much headway.  “I appreciate President-elect Trump’s working together with us on this and we’re hoping to get it done,” Donnelly said.   -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 декабря, 21:12

Trump's Carrier Deal Is Mildly Popular

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― Nearly half of Americans believe President-elect Donald Trump has already stopped U.S. jobs from being shipped abroad. In a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted after the announcement of the Carrier deal, 46 percent of Americans said that Trump has stopped some jobs from being offshored since the Nov. 8 election, while 24 percent said he has not. Another 29 percent weren’t sure. Responses appeared to be largely driven by partisanship. Eighty-one percent of Americans who voted for Trump said that he’s managed to save jobs, but just 35 percent of those who backed Hillary Clinton said the same. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly bashed Carrier for its plans to close a furnace factory in Indiana, lay off 1,400 workers and make the furnaces in Mexico instead. Trump promised to stop Carrier’s plan and said he would prevent companies from offshoring in general with the threat of a 35 percent tax. Last week, Carrier announced 800 jobs would remain in the U.S. thanks to a deal with Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president-elect. Americans remain overall somewhat dubious about Trump’s ability to combat outsourcing, and unsure about the steep tariffs he’s suggested would be part of his plan for doing so. Just about a third say they think the president-elect will mostly succeed in stopping companies from moving jobs abroad, while 30 percent think he’ll be unsuccessful and another 14 percent think he won’t even attempt to do so. Nearly 4 in 10 say that they’re not sure whether the U.S. government should replace free trade agreements with taxes of up to 35 percent on goods imported from countries like China and Mexico. Thirty-three percent of people say they’d support such a policy, while 27 percent say they’d oppose it. Other polls asking specifically about Carrier have delivered mixed results about the public’s reaction. A recent Morning Consult survey found that the deal left 60 percent of voters feeling more favorably toward Trump, while an Economist/YouGov poll found that just 38 percent of Americans approved of the deal. Some of that difference likely comes down to how each of the questions was framed. The Morning Consult poll described the deal in broadly upbeat terms, telling voters that Carrier had “decided to keep roughly 1,000 manufacturing jobs in the state of Indiana rather than moving them to Mexico after forming an agreement with President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence.” The Economist/YouGov survey, in contrast, asked about “a deal Donald Trump negotiated with Carrier, an air conditioning equipment manufacturer, to reduce the number of jobs the company had planned to relocate from a plant in Indiana to Mexico.” Notably, the Morning Consult survey also asks readers how the deal reflects on Trump, while the Economist/YouGov poll asks for opinions about the deal itself. It’s not unusual for a survey question’s wording to have a significant effect on the results, especially when it involves news events that Americans may not have been following closely. But in this case, the variation underscores the importance of Trump’s showmanship in presenting the deal as a major personal coup. As The Huffington Post’s Sam Stein has noted, President Barack Obama’s stimulus package also helped to rescue Indiana jobs, but garnered less political credit. Trump has vowed to continue pressuring companies that plan to offshore jobs, both via his tariff threats and by making personal phone calls to CEOs. The agreement with Carrier included $7 million worth of tax breaks from the state of Indiana, though there may have been a stick in addition to the carrot. Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies, earns billions from federal contracts that Trump could threaten to take away. The company said that it hoped the Trump administration would be more business-friendly, with lower taxes and fewer regulations. Despite the deal, United Technologies is still planning to lay off 500 Carrier workers and 700 from another subsidiary in Indiana. The issue of outsourcing remains a largely hypothetical problem for many Americans. Fourteen percent of those polled in the HuffPost/YouGov survey say that they or someone in their family has lost a job because it was moved overseas. Just 7 percent say that their community has been hit harder than the rest of the U.S. by outsourcing, with 34 percent saying it’s about as much of an issue in their community as it is in other places, and 28 percent saying it’s a smaller problem in their community than elsewhere. Those who’ve been most directly affected are largely receptive to Trump’s message. Americans who say that they or a family member have seen their jobs offshored support his tariff proposal by about a 2-to-1 margin. Sixty-four percent of people in that group say Trump has already helped to keep some jobs in the U.S.  The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted Dec. 1-2 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population. The Huffington Post has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here. Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample, rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 декабря, 21:12

Trump's Carrier Deal Is Mildly Popular

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); WASHINGTON ― Nearly half of Americans believe President-elect Donald Trump has already stopped U.S. jobs from being shipped abroad. In a HuffPost/YouGov survey conducted after the announcement of the Carrier deal, 46 percent of Americans said that Trump has stopped some jobs from being offshored since the Nov. 8 election, while 24 percent said he has not. Another 29 percent weren’t sure. Responses appeared to be largely driven by partisanship. Eighty-one percent of Americans who voted for Trump said that he’s managed to save jobs, but just 35 percent of those who backed Hillary Clinton said the same. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly bashed Carrier for its plans to close a furnace factory in Indiana, lay off 1,400 workers and make the furnaces in Mexico instead. Trump promised to stop Carrier’s plan and said he would prevent companies from offshoring in general with the threat of a 35 percent tax. Last week, Carrier announced 800 jobs would remain in the U.S. thanks to a deal with Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, Trump’s vice president-elect. Americans remain overall somewhat dubious about Trump’s ability to combat outsourcing, and unsure about the steep tariffs he’s suggested would be part of his plan for doing so. Just about a third say they think the president-elect will mostly succeed in stopping companies from moving jobs abroad, while 30 percent think he’ll be unsuccessful and another 14 percent think he won’t even attempt to do so. Nearly 4 in 10 say that they’re not sure whether the U.S. government should replace free trade agreements with taxes of up to 35 percent on goods imported from countries like China and Mexico. Thirty-three percent of people say they’d support such a policy, while 27 percent say they’d oppose it. Other polls asking specifically about Carrier have delivered mixed results about the public’s reaction. A recent Morning Consult survey found that the deal left 60 percent of voters feeling more favorably toward Trump, while an Economist/YouGov poll found that just 38 percent of Americans approved of the deal. Some of that difference likely comes down to how each of the questions was framed. The Morning Consult poll described the deal in broadly upbeat terms, telling voters that Carrier had “decided to keep roughly 1,000 manufacturing jobs in the state of Indiana rather than moving them to Mexico after forming an agreement with President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence.” The Economist/YouGov survey, in contrast, asked about “a deal Donald Trump negotiated with Carrier, an air conditioning equipment manufacturer, to reduce the number of jobs the company had planned to relocate from a plant in Indiana to Mexico.” Notably, the Morning Consult survey also asks readers how the deal reflects on Trump, while the Economist/YouGov poll asks for opinions about the deal itself. It’s not unusual for a survey question’s wording to have a significant effect on the results, especially when it involves news events that Americans may not have been following closely. But in this case, the variation underscores the importance of Trump’s showmanship in presenting the deal as a major personal coup. As The Huffington Post’s Sam Stein has noted, President Barack Obama’s stimulus package also helped to rescue Indiana jobs, but garnered less political credit. Trump has vowed to continue pressuring companies that plan to offshore jobs, both via his tariff threats and by making personal phone calls to CEOs. The agreement with Carrier included $7 million worth of tax breaks from the state of Indiana, though there may have been a stick in addition to the carrot. Carrier’s parent company, United Technologies, earns billions from federal contracts that Trump could threaten to take away. The company said that it hoped the Trump administration would be more business-friendly, with lower taxes and fewer regulations. Despite the deal, United Technologies is still planning to lay off 500 Carrier workers and 700 from another subsidiary in Indiana. The issue of outsourcing remains a largely hypothetical problem for many Americans. Fourteen percent of those polled in the HuffPost/YouGov survey say that they or someone in their family has lost a job because it was moved overseas. Just 7 percent say that their community has been hit harder than the rest of the U.S. by outsourcing, with 34 percent saying it’s about as much of an issue in their community as it is in other places, and 28 percent saying it’s a smaller problem in their community than elsewhere. Those who’ve been most directly affected are largely receptive to Trump’s message. Americans who say that they or a family member have seen their jobs offshored support his tariff proposal by about a 2-to-1 margin. Sixty-four percent of people in that group say Trump has already helped to keep some jobs in the U.S.  The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted Dec. 1-2 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population. The Huffington Post has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here. Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample, rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 декабря, 19:53

Economic Extortion Right v Austerity Left

"You load sixteen tons, what do you get Another day older and deeper in debt Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go I owe my soul to the company store" from "16 Tons" by Merle Travis, 1946 The deal with Carrier is about huge tax breaks to it and its parent, United Technologies. They're worth much more than the wages of the jobs saved. And several hundred of the jobs will still go to Mexico, with "technological upgrades" to improve "competitiveness" at home. Worse yet: the precedent will tempt many more companies to pursue such economic blackmail, while making loyal corporations less competitive. Newt Gingrich already spins it as "economic blackmail*" by the gov't in the interest of America to keep the jobs. *presumably a 'good kind' of extortion, because Trump is doing it. Weapons of mass distraction prevail again. And then the real war against workers, which uses austerity as its weapon of choice, continues to be waged by both parties. This is one thing Demoncats and Repugnicants have agreed on since the mid 1970's. "... The New Democrats are so eager to attack Trump's 'mountains of debt' that they are about to launch a new offensive against the working class in the New Democrats' long war against the working class via economically and politically illiterate austerity...." http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/bill-black-jobs-jobs-jobs-not-austerity.html

07 декабря, 19:09

Automation destroyed 20 million manufacturing jobs, by Scott Sumner

I am becoming increasingly frustrated by all the articles I'm reading about how trade is supposedly decimating jobs in US manufacturing. I went to the FRED data set, and they have manufacturing output (real) going back to the first quarter of 1987. So let's start there. Their series shows total manufacturing output rising from 69.789 in 1987 to 129.129 in the most recent quarter. That's an 85% gain. At the same time, manufacturing employment has fallen, from 17.499 million to 12.275 million. This represents a decline from 17.3% of total employment to only 8.5% of total employment. That's the figure that has people so upset. But the cause is not trade; it's automation. What people forget is that an increase in imports tend to cause an increase in exports. It's true that imports may currently exceed exports, but that gap is not caused by trade, it reflects saving/investment imbalances. But let's say I'm wrong. Let's say trade does cause the current account deficit. In that case, how many jobs have been lost to trade since 1987? Zero. Not because the CA deficit is zero; it's 2.26% of GDP in the most recent quarter. However in the first quarter of 1987 it was 3.19% of GDP. So the trade deficit has shrunk over that period. If you really believed that trade deficits caused unemployment (I don't) you'd be forced to conclude that, in net terms, trade has added jobs to US manufacturing since 1987. After all, the deficit has gotten smaller. When people say they are upset about trade, I think that what really bothers them is that automation is allowing us to produce 85% more manufactured goods with far fewer workers. That transition has been painful for many workers, but it's not about trade---except in one respect. Trade allows the US to concentrate in industries where we have a comparative advantage (aircraft, chemicals, agricultural products, high tech goods, movies, pharmaceuticals, coal, etc.) We then import cars, toys, sneakers, TVs, clothing, furniture and lots of other goods. It's likely that our productivity is higher in the industries where we export as compared to the industries where we import. So in that sense, trade may be speeding up the pace by which automation costs jobs. But probably only slightly; in previous posts I've shown that even within a given industry, such as steel, the job loss is overwhelmingly about automation, not trade. Why do so may people blame trade? Cognitive illusions. It seems like imports would reduce aggregate demand, and that this would reduce employment. Those effects are highly visible. It's human nature to demonize foreigners. But even Paul Krugman rejects that argument, at least when we are not at the zero bound. The Fed would simply offset any reduction to AD due to trade. Even if you thought it was depressing output during the recent recession, the effect would have gone away once we exited the zero bound. But the jobs are still not there in manufacturing. The bottom line is that to the extent trade is a problem, it has nothing to do with aggregate demand. The real problem is frictional unemployment, the difficulty of transitioning from dying industries to growing industries. Business Insider has an excellent article discussing a recent interview with Carrier (United Technologies) CEO Greg Hayes, by Jim Cramer: The result of keeping the plant in Indiana open is a $16 million investment to drive down the cost of production, so as to reduce the cost gap with operating in Mexico. What does that mean? Automation. What does that mean? Fewer jobs, Hayes acknowledged. From the transcript (emphasis added): GREG HAYES: Right. Well, and again, if you think about what we talked about last week, we're going to make a $16 million investment in that factory in Indianapolis to automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive. Now is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost of labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we'll make the capital investments there. JIM CRAMER: Right. GREG HAYES: But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs. The general theme here is something we've been writing about a lot at Business Insider. Yes, low-skilled jobs are being lost to other countries, but they're also being lost to technology. Everyone from liberal, Nobel-winning economist Paul Krugman to Republican Sen. Ben Sasse has noted that technological developments are a bigger threat to American workers than trade. Viktor Shvets, a strategist at Macquarie, has called it the "third industrial revolution." One by one we are repeating all the mistakes of the Great Depression. We are falling prey to fallacies that were adopted in the 1930s, but rejected by the 1990s. Now they are all coming back: 1. The belief that financial crisis caused the Great Depression (rather than vice versa). 2. The view that the Fed was out of ammo. 3. The view that interest rates measure the stance of monetary policy. 4. The view that exchange rate depreciation is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. 5. The view that fiscal stimulus is needed in recessions. 6. The view that a higher minimum wage could boost the economy. 7. The view that mercantilist policies are justified. I spent much of my life studying the intellectual climate during the 1930s, including reading all of the New York Times from 1929-38. I can't tell you how depressing it is to see today's intellectual climate reverting back to the vulgar Keynesianism of the 1930s. To see us making all of the same mistakes. But opposition to free trade might be the worst of all, as it's based on pure innumeracy. That's why even Keynesians like Krugman don't buy the argument. Unfortunately, the innumerates are probably in the majority. PS. About the title of the post. The US did not even have 20 million manufacturing jobs in 1987. So how could we lose that many? I derived this figure by first assuming that our current manufacturing output was produced with the same level of productivity as in 1987---in which case employment would have risen by 85%. That would have required an extra 15 million workers. Then I noted that actual manufacturing employment has fallen by 5 million. The gap is 20 million. Is that a ridiculous comparison? Of course it is. But so are all the estimates of jobs lost from trade. So what's all this really about? Perhaps the "feminization" of America. When farm work was wiped out by automation, uneducated farmers generally found factory jobs in the city. Now factory workers are being asked to transition to service sector jobs that have been traditionally seen as "women's work". Even worse, the culture is pushing back against a lot of traditionally masculine character traits (especially on campuses). The alt-right is overtly anti-feminist, and Trump ran a consciously macho themed campaign. This all may seem to be about trade, but it's actually about automation and low-skilled men who feel emasculated. (26 COMMENTS)

07 декабря, 15:51

Watsco Increases Stake in Carrier Enterprise Joint Venture

Watsco, Inc. (WSO) has raised its stake by 10% in Carrier Enterprise Northeast LLC, a joint venture with Carrier Corporation.

07 декабря, 02:46

More on Trump’s Carrier Deal

(Don Boudreaux) TweetIn my latest Pittsburgh Tribune-Review column, I reflect more on Trump’s Carrier deal.  (When I wrote this column several days ago the reported number of jobs saved was 1,000.  Now that estimated number is down to 800.  Also, I’ve since learned that the products that those 800 workers in America help to produce are furnaces.) […]

07 декабря, 01:42

Trump's tweet shaming startles corporate America

The president-elect is quickly putting the bully in the bully pulpit.

07 декабря, 00:33

Trump Spokesman Claims The President-Elect Sold All His Stocks, But Provides No Evidence

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); President-elect Donald Trump’s spokesman said on Tuesday that Trump had sold off all his investments in the stock market more than five months ago, but the Trump transition team has yet to offer any evidence to substantiate this claim. The statement came during the team’s daily conference call with reporters. Asked about a tweet that Trump had sent out earlier Tuesday morning accusing Boeing of overcharging for two new Air Force One planes, spokesman Jason Miller said Trump “sold all of his stock back in June.” At the time, Miller seemed to be saying that the president-elect had sold his shares in Boeing. But Miller later told at least two media outlets that Trump had sold his shares in all public companies, not just Boeing. In his May 2016 financial disclosure report, filed with the Federal Election Commission, Trump had declared ownership of more than $20 million worth of stocks and bonds, through scores of different investment funds and family trusts. It’s unclear if Miller’s comment also applied to those bonds. Earlier this month, Trump spokesman Hope Hicks said that in January, he had sold bonds issued by United Technologies, the parent company of Carrier Corp. ― the company with whom he struck a deal to save some 800 U.S. jobs using a $7 million state tax break and the bully pulpit. (Carrier is still planning to lay off 600 workers.) Last month, Hicks told The Washington Post that Trump in June sold the stock he owned in Energy Transfer Partners, which owns the majority of the Dakota Access pipeline project. But the Trump transition team has yet to provide any evidence to substantiate Miller’s much broader claim, despite numerous requests from the media, including The Huffington Post. Nor did the team respond to HuffPost’s questions about what Trump did with the proceeds from the supposed sales. If it were true, such a disinvestment would represent a step in the right direction from Trump, who is poised to take office in January saddled with more conflicts of interest, actual and potential, than any other president in American history. Sale of stocks would remove one avenue for these conflicts and could help the president-elect build public trust in his new administration. But without any confirmation that the sales had happened, Tuesday’s announcement from Miller had the opposite effect, serving only to further invigorate the questions around Trump’s opaque financial holdings. As a candidate, the real estate mogul refused to release his tax returns, leaving the public almost entirely in the dark as to how much income he made last year, how much he gave to charity, and how much he owes to banks and investors. Some $20 million in public stocks and bonds is also a comparatively minor asset next to the president-elect’s privately held business, the Trump Organization. Trump has said he will address the conflicts between his business and his public office in a speech on December 15th. He has previously said that he will cede control of his own company to his three oldest children, calling this arrangement a “blind trust,” which it is not. But now it appears as though his daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, are moving to Washington, D.C., and could each play a significant role in his administration ― which raises fresh questions about how the family business might be run. As long as Trump’s relatives are still running his company, the arrangement is not a blind trust in any sense of the term. A real blind trust would be administered by an unrelated third party, such as an independent lawyer, who would manage Trump’s assets while he was in office. In theory, Trump would not know how those assets were handled ― which ones were sold, which ones were held, what new assets were bought. (Given the highly public nature of many of Trump’s properties, it’s not clear how even this could be done, short of selling off all his holdings from the start.) Since Trump knows his assets at least as well as his children, and since their financial interests naturally dovetail with his own, any arrangement in which they retain control does virtually nothing to solve potential conflicts. Moreover, Trump’s older children are intimately involved in their father’s political work. Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump are all part of the official transition executive committee.   On Nov. 17, when the president-elect met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ivanka Trump was in the room, photos distributed by the Japanese press show. Ivanka’s presence at the meeting came after Trump’s transition team said that she and her two brothers would run the family business. Since his Election Day triumph, there have been a string of examples of Trump himself mixing business with politics. He met with Indian real estate developers who are licensing his name. On a congratulatory call with Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri, Trump reportedly asked for a favor related to permits for an office tower bearing his name in Buenos Aires, according to an Argentine journalist. Spokespeople for Macri and Trump later strongly denied that the permitting issue was raised, but Marci did tell a Japanese newspaper that Ivanka had been on the call. And the developers running the Buenos Aires project had access to the Trumps throughout the campaign: Felipe Yaryura and Moses Yellati of the YY Development Group were at the Trump victory party on election night and both men attended the debates between Trump and Hillary Clinton. Trump also touted his Turkish business partner in a call with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Nov. 9, according to independent Turkish newspaper Diken. Trump told Erdogan that his business partner was a “close friend” and “your great admirer.” -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

07 декабря, 00:33

Trump Spokesman Claims The President-Elect Sold All His Stocks, But Provides No Evidence

function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); President-elect Donald Trump’s spokesman said on Tuesday that Trump had sold off all his investments in the stock market more than five months ago, but the Trump transition team has yet to offer any evidence to substantiate this claim. The statement came during the team’s daily conference call with reporters. Asked about a tweet that Trump had sent out earlier Tuesday morning accusing Boeing of overcharging for two new Air Force One planes, spokesman Jason Miller said Trump “sold all of his stock back in June.” At the time, Miller seemed to be saying that the president-elect had sold his shares in Boeing. But Miller later told at least two media outlets that Trump had sold his shares in all public companies, not just Boeing. In his May 2016 financial disclosure report, filed with the Federal Election Commission, Trump had declared ownership of more than $20 million worth of stocks and bonds, through scores of different investment funds and family trusts. It’s unclear if Miller’s comment also applied to those bonds. Earlier this month, Trump spokesman Hope Hicks said that in January, he had sold bonds issued by United Technologies, the parent company of Carrier Corp. ― the company with whom he struck a deal to save some 800 U.S. jobs using a $7 million state tax break and the bully pulpit. (Carrier is still planning to lay off 600 workers.) Last month, Hicks told The Washington Post that Trump in June sold the stock he owned in Energy Transfer Partners, which owns the majority of the Dakota Access pipeline project. But the Trump transition team has yet to provide any evidence to substantiate Miller’s much broader claim, despite numerous requests from the media, including The Huffington Post. Nor did the team respond to HuffPost’s questions about what Trump did with the proceeds from the supposed sales. If it were true, such a disinvestment would represent a step in the right direction from Trump, who is poised to take office in January saddled with more conflicts of interest, actual and potential, than any other president in American history. Sale of stocks would remove one avenue for these conflicts and could help the president-elect build public trust in his new administration. But without any confirmation that the sales had happened, Tuesday’s announcement from Miller had the opposite effect, serving only to further invigorate the questions around Trump’s opaque financial holdings. As a candidate, the real estate mogul refused to release his tax returns, leaving the public almost entirely in the dark as to how much income he made last year, how much he gave to charity, and how much he owes to banks and investors. Some $20 million in public stocks and bonds is also a comparatively minor asset next to the president-elect’s privately held business, the Trump Organization. Trump has said he will address the conflicts between his business and his public office in a speech on December 15th. He has previously said that he will cede control of his own company to his three oldest children, calling this arrangement a “blind trust,” which it is not. But now it appears as though his daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, are moving to Washington, D.C., and could each play a significant role in his administration ― which raises fresh questions about how the family business might be run. As long as Trump’s relatives are still running his company, the arrangement is not a blind trust in any sense of the term. A real blind trust would be administered by an unrelated third party, such as an independent lawyer, who would manage Trump’s assets while he was in office. In theory, Trump would not know how those assets were handled ― which ones were sold, which ones were held, what new assets were bought. (Given the highly public nature of many of Trump’s properties, it’s not clear how even this could be done, short of selling off all his holdings from the start.) Since Trump knows his assets at least as well as his children, and since their financial interests naturally dovetail with his own, any arrangement in which they retain control does virtually nothing to solve potential conflicts. Moreover, Trump’s older children are intimately involved in their father’s political work. Ivanka, Donald Jr. and Eric Trump are all part of the official transition executive committee.   On Nov. 17, when the president-elect met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Ivanka Trump was in the room, photos distributed by the Japanese press show. Ivanka’s presence at the meeting came after Trump’s transition team said that she and her two brothers would run the family business. Since his Election Day triumph, there have been a string of examples of Trump himself mixing business with politics. He met with Indian real estate developers who are licensing his name. On a congratulatory call with Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri, Trump reportedly asked for a favor related to permits for an office tower bearing his name in Buenos Aires, according to an Argentine journalist. Spokespeople for Macri and Trump later strongly denied that the permitting issue was raised, but Marci did tell a Japanese newspaper that Ivanka had been on the call. And the developers running the Buenos Aires project had access to the Trumps throughout the campaign: Felipe Yaryura and Moses Yellati of the YY Development Group were at the Trump victory party on election night and both men attended the debates between Trump and Hillary Clinton. Trump also touted his Turkish business partner in a call with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Nov. 9, according to independent Turkish newspaper Diken. Trump told Erdogan that his business partner was a “close friend” and “your great admirer.” -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.