Уоррен Баффетт, инвестор, глава Berkshire Hathaway. "Важно, что ты знаешь, но еще важнее - кого ты знаешь": Свою уникальную концепцию инвестирования Уоррен Баффетт разработал, когда был еще совсем молод. Но его ноу-хау ничего не стоило - у него было слишком мало средств, чтобы в полной мере применить его на практике и делать большие инвестиции. Баффетт не смог разбогатеть, пока не преодолел свою застенчивость, не наработал сеть инвестиционных контактов и партнерств. Никто не становится богатым в одиночку.
A screen for low p/e value stocks trading below book yields 5 possibilities.
Warren Buffett and Forbes' Randall Lane flip through the very first - and only remaining - issue of Forbes Magazine before shooting the 100th anniversary cover. Photography by Martin Schoeller
Warren Buffett's investment vehicle executed several well-timed investments and a spectacular cash-in during the year.
Дети чувствуют себя неподготовленными к самостоятельной жизни, несмотря на отличное образование и стартовый капитал
Investing guru Warren Buffett has always been cautious about the tech sector. Earlier this week, regulatory filings showed that Buffett increased his holdings of AAPL stock by 3% during the third quarter to a total 134 million shares. To be sure, data on these purchases is somewhat outdated and it’s never a good idea to blindly follow anyone, even Warren Buffet, I think he is on to something.
Принесение извинений клиентам, сотрудникам и акционерам — это целое искусство. В современном мире, где репутационные кризисы обходятся дорого, руководство корпораций обязано им владеть. Впрочем, далеко не всегда процесс проходит гладко.
Amid the empty-vessel-driven "deep-learning", "artificial-intelligence", and "algorithmic" narratives-du-jour, more and more fund managers are jumping on the bandwagon. The latest is Finnish fund manager FIM, who is introducing the first investment fund in the Nordic region, where a self-learning algorithm gets to pick all the stocks. As Bloomberg reports, targeting returns of 3 percentage points above the MSCI World Index, the FIM Artificial Intelligence fund seeks to tease out patterns even an experienced fund manager may not detect, according to Chief Investment Officer Eelis Hein, who oversees 5.6 billion euros ($6.6 billion) in investments at FIM Asset Management. “This is the next revolution across society, including in investing,” Hein said in an interview in Helsinki. “Investors are hugely interested.” The “Warren in a box” technology, referring to famous value investor Warren Buffett, is a product of more than two years of work by Acatis Investment GmbH and NNaisense SA, a Lugano, Switzerland-based developer of artificial intelligence. That all sounds very exciting and 'new' and 'tech' and awesome. There's just one thing... Johnny-5 sucks at stock-picking... Remember what that AI Fund CEO said... “EquBot AI Technology with Watson has the ability to mimic an army of equity research analysts working around the clock, 365 days a year, while removing human error and bias from the process.” But hey FIM is not giving up, they drop some more complex words to 'splain away any potential doubts an investor may have... “AI may detect non-linear patterns that traditional quantitative analysis is not able to identify,” Hein at FIM said. “It has no emotions: it hasn’t felt fear during a crash nor euphoria when markets are up.”
Oracle reveals 3rd quarter buys and sales
Two weeks ago I posted five economic questions I'm frequently asked. Since then I've discussed: 1) Are house prices in a new bubble?2) Is a recession imminent (within the next 12 months)? 3) Is the stock market a bubble?Today I will discuss: Can investors use macro analysis?Macro is the analysis of the economy as a whole (GDP, Unemployment, inflation, demographics), as opposed to the analysis of individual companies (or individuals). Sometimes we can use macro trends to help with sector analysis.An example of the later would the apartment sector. It was in 2010 that I started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive. My analysis was based on three factors: low volume of new supply, a large cohort moving into their 20s (the prime renting age), and people moving from owning to renting (the foreclosure crisis). 2010 and 2011 was a great time to invest in apartments.Another example of macro sector analysis was in January 2009, when I wrote about the auto sector: Vehicle Sales. It was pretty easy to predict sales were near a bottom, and that auto sales would "increase significantly" going forward.We can also use macro analysis to follow the business cycle. However analysts have a poor track record in calling turns in the business cycle. As an example, ECRI called a recession in September 2011, and finally threw in the towel in May 2015. If investors sold when ECRI first made their recession call in Sept 2011, they would have missed close to a 75% increase in the market!Note: This is partially from a previous post and is NOT intended as investment advice.Why are investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in the S&P 500 (using average monthly prices) since 1970. Notice that the market usually declines YoY in a recession.Note: Because this is “year-over-year” there is a lag to the S&P 500 data. Click on graph for larger image.So calling a recession isn’t just an academic exercise, there is some opportunity to preserve capital.Not all downturns in the stock market are associated with recessions. As an example, the 1987 market crash was during an economic expansion. And the stock bubble collapse lasted from March 2000 through early 2003 – and the only official economic recession during that period was 7 months in 2001.Although I don’t give investment advice, I think investors should measure their performance with some index. Warren Buffett likes to use the S&P 500 index, so I also used the S&P 500 for this exercise.Imagine if we could call recessions in real time, and if we could predict recoveries in advance. The following table shows the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy (with dividend reinvestment), compared to a strategy of market timing based on 1) selling when a recession starts, and 2) buying 6 months before a recession ends.For the buy and sell prices, I averaged the S&P 500 closing price for the entire month (no cherry picking price – just cherry picking the timing with 20/20 hindsight).I assumed an investor started at five different times, in January of 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. S&P 500 Annualized Return, including dividendsAnnual Return from Start DateRecession Timing SensitivityStart InvestingBuy and HoldRecession TimingTwo Months EarlyOne Month EarlyOne Month LateTwo Months LateJan-709.3%13.3%12.4%13.0%13.2%12.7%Jan-8010.3%13.8%13.7%13.7%14.0%13.3%Jan-908.6%12.9%12.6%12.8%12.9%12.4%Jan-003.3%9.2%9.7%9.5%9.3%9.4%Jan-1014.2%14.2%------------The “recession timing” column gives the annualized return for each of the starting dates. Timing the recession correctly always outperforms buy-and-hold. The last four columns show the performance if the investor is two months early (both in and out), one month early, one month late, and two months late. The investor doesn’t have to be perfect!Note: This includes dividends, but not taxes. Also I assumed no interest earned when the investor is out of the market (money in the mattress).The second table provides the same information, but this time in dollars (assuming a $10,000 initial investment).. S&P 500: Value of $10,000 Investment, including dividendsValue based on Start DateRecession Timing SensitivityStart InvestingBuy and HoldRecession TimingTwo Months EarlyOne Month EarlyOne Month LateTwo Months LateJan-70$528,040$2,711,990$1,920,410$2,443,700$2,632,340$2,152,660Jan-80$307,240$907,270$869,690$870,620$955,130$779,090Jan-90$77,240$204,690$190,090$200,650$201,980$180,780Jan-00$16,260$36,960$39,370$38,270$37,490$38,080Jan-10$18,970$18,970------------Unfortunately forecasters have a terrible record of predicting downturns. The running joke is that forecasters have predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions! Although a forecaster doesn’t have to be perfect, they still have to be right. And that is very rare.As economist Victor Zarnowitz said way back in 1960: “The record of predicting turning points — changes in the direction of economic activity — is on the whole poor." Forecasting hasn't improved much since then.As an example, here are some comments from then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan in 1990 (a recession began in July 1990):“In the very near term there’s little evidence that I can see to suggest the economy is tilting over [into recession].” Chairman Greenspan, July 1990“...those who argue that we are already in a recession I think are reasonably certain to be wrong.” Greenspan, August 1990“... the economy has not yet slipped into recession.” Greenspan, October 1990I'd say he missed that downturn. Of course Wall Street and Fed Chairmen are notoriously bad at calling downturns. But the track record for calling recoveries isn’t much better. ... I was very lucky with the recent recession, but the key wasn’t calling the end in June 2009 (I thought it ended in July), but looking for the bottom in early 2009 (that is why I posted several times in early 2009 that I was looking for the sun).This is NOT intended as investment advice. I am NOT an investment advisor. Just some (hopefully) fun musing ...
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Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) has sold another large piece of its stake in IBM Corp (IBM.N), backing further away from an investment that the billionaire has admitted was not one of his best. Berkshire cut its IBM stake 32 percent in the third quarter to about 37 million shares worth $5.37 billion from 54.1 million shares worth $8.32 billion, according to a Tuesday regulatory filing detailing its U.S.-listed stock holdings. The IBM share stake has fallen by 54 percent since the end of 2016, when Berkshire owned roughly 81 million shares for which it paid about $13.8 billion.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc has sold another large piece of its stake in IBM Corp , backing further away from an investment that the billionaire has admitted was not one of his best.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc has sold another large piece of its stake in IBM Corp , backing further away from an investment that the billionaire has admitted was not...
Traditionally one of the most boring, and telegraphed 13-Fs, today's update of Berkshire holdings did not contain any major surprises, well maybe with one exception: while it was already well-known that at the end of June Buffett converted roughly 700 million Bank of America preferred shares into common, which now appear on Berkshire's 13F, there were two notable changes. First, Buffett continued to dump his IBM holdings, and as of the end of Q3, he held only 37 million IBM shares, down 31.5% from Q2, amounting to a little over $5 billion in notional value as of Sept 30. Berkshire also cut its stake in Wells Fargo (its biggest) modestly to 464 million shares, which is still just under $26 billion, and also trimmed his Charter Communications position. On the other end, Buffett added to his Apple holdings, increasing the total by 3.9 million shares to 134 million from 130.2 million at the end of last quarter. Buffett also added to his Synchrony Financial and Monsanto holdings. Finally, Berkshire exited its entire Wabco position.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc has sold another large piece of its stake in IBM Corp, backing further away from an investment that the billionaire has admitted was not one of his best.
Совокупный капитал восьми богатейших людей мира составляет сейчас $426 млрд. Точно такой же суммой располагает бедная половина человечества, то есть примерно 3,6 млрд человек. Это говорится в отчете международного объединения OXFAM.Вот эти восемь богатейших людей мира — Билл Гейтс ($75 млрд), Амансио Ортега ($67 млрд), Уоррен Баффет (60,8 млрд), Карлос Слима ($50 млрд), Джефф Безоса ($45,2 млрд), Марк Цукерберг ($44,6 млрд), Лари Эллисон ($43,6 млрд) и Майкл Блумберг ($40 млрд).По подсчетам авторов отчета, в 2009–2016 годах совокупный капитал 793 богатейших людей мира рос на 11% ежегодно, увеличившись с $2,4 трлн до 5 трлн. Если темпы роста останутся прежними, то уже в ближайшие 25 лет на Земле может появиться первый триллионер, прогнозируют эксперты OXFAM.По словам исполнительного директора OXFAM Винни Бьянима, ситуация, когда огромное богатство сосредоточено в руках нескольких человек, в то время как каждый десятый человек в мире живет меньше чем на $2 в день, просто непристойна. Кстати, Россия по этой непристойности является мировым лидером. Так 10% домохозяйств по данным банка Credit Suisse в России принадлежит 89% всего богатства страны, а 1% - 75%:А по индексу неравенства Джинни Россия входит в десятку антилидеров мира, соседствуя с Ботсваной, Украиной, Намибией и Замбией.