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Valiant Holding
03 января 2014, 16:03

Snow Day Market Summary

In a day that will be remembered for the first major snowstorm to hit New York in 2014 and test the clean up capabilities and resolve of the city's new populist mayor (not starting on a good note following reports that JFK airport will be closed at least until 8:30 am Eastern), it was only fitting that there was virtually no overnight news aside for the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI which dropped from 56.0 to 54.6, a new 4 month low. Still, following yesterday's ugly start to the new year, stocks in Europe traded higher this morning, in part driven by value related flows following the sell-off yesterday. Retailers led the move higher, with Next shares in London up as much as 11% which is the most since January 2009 and to its highest level since 1988 after the company lifted profit forecast after strong Christmas trading performance. Other UK based retailers with likes of AB Foods and M&S also advanced around 2%. Looking elsewhere, peripheral bonds continued to outperform their core counterparts, with IT/GE 10y spread below 200bps mark for the first time since July 2011 and SP/GE 10y spread below 200bps mark for the first time since May 2011. The recent flow into peripheral bonds said to have driven by domestic accounts, together with international real money accounts putting on new trades for 2014. A combination of a sharp drop in EONIA fixing, together with the release of better than expected UK macroeconomic data meant that GBP/USD outperformed EUR/USD. On that note, analysts have noted that sharp decline in EONIA fixing leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to the downside. In summary, the Italian and Dutch markets are the best-performing larger bourses, Swiss the worst. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Portuguese 10yr bond yields fall; Spanish yields decline. Commodities little changed, with zinc, nickel underperforming and silver outperforming. New York ISM, U.S. vehicle sales data released later. Looking at the day ahead, it will likely be a quiet end to the week with little on the data docket to note and inclement weather on the US east coast possibly preventing some market participants from returning to their desks. Today’s European data include Euroarea money supply and Spanish/Italian CPI readings. December auto sales is the main data release in the US. Bernanke, Lacker, Plosser and Stein are scheduled to speak at the American Economic Association annual meeting in Philadelphia although some may not make it due to the weather. Recap: S&P 500 futures down 0% to 1827.3 Stoxx 600 up 3% to 326.7 US 10Yr yield down 1bps to 2.98% German 10Yr yield down 1bps to 1.94% MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.4% to 140.3 Gold spot up 0.5% to $1231/oz EUROPE 17 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; retail, real estate outperform, insurance, basic resources underperform 67.5% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 29.8% decline Top Stoxx 600 gainers: Next PLC  +8.6%, Banco Espirito Santo SA  +5.1%, Dixons Retail PLC  +4.9%, Telecom Italia SpA +4.7%, Valiant Holding AG  +4.2%, Marks & Spencer Group PLC +4%, Debenhams PLC  +3.5%, Eutelsat Communications SA +3.5%, Hays PLC  +2.9%, Azimut Holding SpA  +2.9% Top Stoxx 600 decliners: International Personal Finance -2.7%, Swiss Re AG -2.7%, DKSH Holding AG -2.3%, Remy Cointreau SA -2.3%, Lonmin PLC -2.2%, Commerzbank AG -1.6%, Rexam PLC -1.3%, Rotork PLC -1.2%, Pearson PLC -1.2%, Coca- Cola HBC AG -1.2% ASIA Asian stocks fall with the Hang Seng underperforming. MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.4% to 140.3 Nikkei 225 closed, Hang Seng down 2.2%, Kospi down 1.1%,  Shanghai Composite down 1.2%, ASX down 0.3%, Sensex down 0.3% 2 out of 10 sectors rise with health care, consumer outperforming and energy, tech underperforming Gainers: ANTA Sports Products Ltd  +8.7%, Celltrion Inc +6.1%, Chongqing Changan Automobile C  +5.8%, Advanced Info Service PCL  +4.8%, Kasikornbank PCL   +4.7%, Kasikornbank PCL  +3.8%, Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd  +3.5%, OCI Co Ltd +3.4%, United Spirits Ltd  +3.3% Decliners: Thai Oil PCL -6.9%, China Taiping Insurance Holdin -6%, Eclat Textile Co Ltd -5.8%, Banpu PCL -5.4%, Belle International Holdings L -5.1%, Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT -4.9%, First Pacific Co Ltd/Hong Kong -4.9%, Adaro Energy Tbk PT -4.7%, CITIC Securities Co Ltd -4.7%, E-Mart Co Ltd -4.4% Overnight headline bulletin fromRanSquawk European stocks trade higher following yesterday's sell-off, with the peripheral markets outperforming as Italian and Spanish spreads continue yesterday's tightening. UK Mortgage Approvals came in at the highest since January 2008, with UK Nationwide House Prices showing the biggest rise since August 2009. Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest EIA Nat Gas Storage report, DoE data and US vehicle sales. Asian Headlines Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) M/M 54.6 (Prev. 56.0); 4-month low South Korean finance minister Hyun stated a need to closely monitor JPY's movements, adding that they may need to strengthen support measures for smaller companies following the weak JPY and that Japan may face international pressure on currency. EU & UK Headlines UK Mortgage Approvals (Nov) M/M 70.8K vs. Exp. 69.7K (Prev. 67.7K, Rev. to 68.0K) - highest since January 2008 - UK November net lending to non-financial businesses at GBP -4.656bln vs October GBP -1.121bln, biggest fall since series began in May 2011. UK PMI Construction (Dec) M/M 62.1 vs Exp. 62.0 (Prev. 62.6) UK Nationwide House PX (Dec) M/M 1.4% vs Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%) - Biggest rise since August 2009 - Nationwide House PX NSA (Dec) Y/Y 8.4% vs Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 6.5%) Spanish Unemployment Net ('000s) (Dec) M/M -107.6 (Prev. -2.5) Swiss PMI Manufacturing (Dec) M/M 53.9 vs 56.3 (Prev. 56.5) Analysts at UBS believe that any BoE rate increases may be as small as 5bps. Saying that the withdrawal will be cautious if inflation and wage growth remain subdued, suggests 5bps rate rises to emphasize that any more will be incremental and hesitant. German government will not increase taxes, according to draft of annual economic report of German government. No major Tier 1 data from the US data, with focus on the energy markets as today sees the release of the DoE Inventories and EIA Natural Gas Storage Change. US volumes today may be impeded by adverse weather conditions. According to the National Weather Service, a combination of storms will impact areas from the southern Appalachians into New England into Friday. Heaviest snow will fall from central New York to the Massachusetts coast. Blizzard conditions are possible for eastern Long Island and the Massachusetts coast. Bitter cold will move into the Midwest and East following the storm. Equities Following yesterday's sell-off in European equities, stocks have managed to trade with gains this morning, with Next in the UK being the notable outperformer. This follows the Co.'s pre-market update, with Q4 sales coming in significantly higher than expected. This news for Next has seen other UK stocks including AB foods and M&S trade higher for the session. Elsewhere, the periphery is leading the way across Europe, with Telecom Italia supporting the FTSE MIB after pre-market reports that Telefonica are to review the feasibility of Telecom Italia Brazil unit breakup next week. FX In FX markets overnight, the South Korean Finance Minister said that they need to closely monitor JPY's movements and that Japan may face international pressure on currency with USD/JPY then running through stops at 104.50 to the downside. Following the release of a better than expected UK PMI Construction, GBP/USD has outperformed EUR/USD, with EUR also under pressure from JPY strength. There is also market talk of real money accounts selling in EUR/GBP. Analysts at Credit Suisse say that any setbacks in GBP/USD towards 1.6320/00 offers a chance to re-establish long positions as med-term outlook remains bullish Commodities Nomura forecasts Brent oil average price at USD 100/bbl in 2014 and forecasts WTI crude average price at USD 90/bbl in 2014. Iraq starts fixing oil pipeline that was damaged by a bomb yesterday evening. There is no definite date to complete repairs as there was extensive damage according to North Oil. China's November copper products output rises 25% on year to 1.5 mil mt. * * * Finally, here is the complete overnight recap from DB's Jim Reid DM equities had a soft start to 2014 with both the S&P500 (-0.89%) and Stoxx600 (-0.74%) recording their worst opening day performances since 2008. S&P500 volumes were on the low-side, even for a first trading day of the year, and it may drop further today after winter storm Hercules hit the US north east late on Thursday prompting a state of emergency to be declared in New York State and New Jersey. There are reports of flight cancellations, highway closures and reduced transport services in major cities in the north east, while NYC is expected to receive up to 9 inches of snow on Thursday night/Friday morning accompanied by a sharp drop in temperatures. Coming back to markets, yesterday saw a partial reversal of one of the major themes of 2013, being that of stronger DM equities and subdued fixed income performance. All ten industry sectors in the S&P500 and Stoxx600 closed in the red yesterday, with utilities, financials and resources bearing the brunt of the selloff. On the fixed income side, peripheral European bonds had an impressive day with both Spain and Italian 10 year yields closing below the 4% mark. US treasury yields reached an early high 3.05% before rallying to close at 2.989% (-4bp on the day) - partially reversing some of the losses from the last trading day of 2013. The weaker-than-expected ISM data (more below) helped sentiment in USTs as did the weakness in US equities which opened lower and stayed low for the entire session. The USD had a strong start to the year (USD index +0.65%) while emerging market assets experienced the opposite as worries permeated across Turkey, Thailand and LATAM. The MSCI EM index fell 1.2% for its largest drop in more than a month and the TRY, BRL and MXN all struggled against the USD. Reviewing the data flow, the latest round of ISM/PMI surveys showed that manufacturing activity ended 2013 on a mixed note. The US manufacturing ISM for December fell 0.3pt from November’s levels to 57.0 but this was still slightly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 56.8. DB’s economists noted that this was a similar performance to the Chicago PMI which was released earlier in the week, but they also noted some positives in ISM report including the fact that both the new orders (64.2 vs. 63.6 previous) and employment components (56.9 vs. 56.5 previous) made new multi-year highs. The ISM data had minimal effect on markets though 10yr yields dropped a couple of basis points following its release. Across the Atlantic, the Euro-area manufacturing PMI for December came out in line with the flash estimate at 52.7 but the surprise was in the strength of the numbers in Spain (50.8 vs 49.8 forecast) and Italy (53.3 vs 51.7 forecast). Meanwhile in the core, the divergence between Germany and France continued to widen (+1.1 to 52.7 for & -1.4 to 47.0 respectively). Outside of the manufacturing data, US initial  jobless claims for the last full week of 2013 dropped -2k to 339k though the week-to-week numbers have been impacted by seasonal factors of late. Looking at overnight markets, Asian equities are taking the lead of the US and Europe with losses paced by the Hang Seng (-1.9%) and KOSPI (-1.1%). USDJPY remains under some pressure, dropping 0.6% early today while Japanese stock markets remain closed for New Year holidays. All eyes remain on the wobbles in EM and the latest data flow from China hasn’t helped sentiment there either. The official Chinese December services PMI (released overnight) came in at 54.6 which is a four-month low and is 1.4 pts lower than November’s reading. This follows the weaker-than-expected official manufacturing PMI (51.0 vs 51.2 expected) released earlier this week. Thailand’s SET equity index is faring better today (-0.7%) following yesterday’s 5.2% fall which brought the index to an 18-month low. Asian EM credit spreads are about 3-4bp wider in general. Chinese bank funding pressures remain of some concern but the 7-day repo rate has eased around 15bp this morning. Amid the recent worries about debt levels at Chinese local governments, there is talk that a number of local governments may tap onshore Chinese USD funding markets after Shanghai Chengtou Corp issued the first onshore USD-denominated bond by a local-government financing vehicle in China as yuan borrowing costs surge (Bloomberg). Returning to DM, 2013 will be partly remembered for being a robust year for M&A, leveraged financings and IPOs particularly in North America – and there are signs that 2014 will be another healthy year for corporate activity. The buyouts of Verizon Wireless, Heinz and Dell were amongst the standout buyout deals of 2013, and the first out of the gates this year is auto-maker Fiat who announced on New Year’s Day a $4.4bn deal to acquire the remaining 41% portion of Chrysler. The fully-merged Fiat-Chrysler group is aiming to list in New York within the year according to the Financial Times. Speaking of buyouts, it will be also interesting to track the LBO pipeline with the  improving optimism in that market evident in the latest buyout stats from Reuters that show that the median EBITDA multiple in US LBOs jumped to 9.8x in 2013 from 8.3x in 2012, citing data from market research firm Preqin. Thomson Reuters also notes that the US leveraged bank lending posted a record $510bn in volumes in 2013 (up 55% over 2012) and the average LBO debt levels crept up to 6.2x in 2013. So valuations and leverage levels crept upwards in 2013, supported by accommodative debt and equity funding markets - whether this can be sustained in 2014 is the big question. On a related note, following a gain of more than 30% in 2013, the S&P500 is predicted to gain around 5.5% in 2014 according to the average of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That outlook is the lowest forecast since 31 Dec 2004. Looking at the day ahead, it will likely be a quiet end to the week with little on the data docket to note and inclement weather on the US east coast possibly preventing some market participants from returning to their desks. Today’s European data include Euroarea money supply and Spanish/Italian CPI readings. December auto sales is the main data release in the US. Bernanke, Lacker, Plosser and Stein are scheduled to speak at the American Economic Association annual meeting in Philadelphia.        

Выбор редакции
20 января 2013, 20:48

Sports › Djokovic holds off Wawrinka; Sharapova advances

Novak Djokovic held off a valiant Swiss player for a 5-hour, five-set victory Sunday night, extending his winning streak to 18 matches at the Australian Open and then ripping off his shirt to celebrate. The big surprise: It was a fourth-round match against Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland, not a final…

22 августа 2012, 17:54

Guest Post: Syria And Iran Dominos Lead To World War

Submitted by Brandon Smith of Alt-Market blog, Almost three years ago I wrote an analytical piece on the concept of deliberately engineering wars, big and small, by elitists to distract the masses away from particular global developments that work to the benefit of the establishment power structure.  That article was entitled ‘Will The Globalists Trigger Yet Another World War?’:http://www.alt-market.com/neithercorp/press/2010/01/will-globalists-trigger-yet-another-world-war/ In that analysis, I concluded that since at least 2008, the power’s that be (whether posing as Republicans or Democrats) had set in a motion a series of events that revolved around Iran, and most disturbingly, Syria, which could be used to trigger a vast global war scenario.  Today, unfortunately, it seems my concerns were more than valid, and circumstances evolving in that particular region are dire indeed.  Now, some may argue that circumstances in the Middle East have always been “dire” and that it does not take much to predict a renewal of chaos.  Admittedly, for the past six years alone the American public has been treated to one propaganda campaign after the other testing the social waters to see if a sizable majority of the citizenry could be convinced to support strikes against Iran.  The U.S. and Israeli governments have come very close on several occasions in rhetoric and in the build up of arms, to just such an event.  However, I would submit that the previous threats of war that came and went are absolutely nothing in comparison to the danger today. Syria’s civil war has developed into something quite frightening, well beyond the blind insurrections of the so-called “Arab Spring”.  So many outside interests (especially U.S. interests) are involved in the conflict it is impossible to tell whether there are actually any real revolutionaries in Syria anymore.  This unsettling of the country’s foundation has taken a turn which I warned about recently, namely, the removal of UN monitors from the area, which was announced only days ago:http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/16/syria-crisis-idINL6E8JGDXH20120816 The removal of UN monitors is a sign that some kind of strike is near the horizon. Accusations of potential “chemical weapons stores” in Syria are being floated by the Department of Defense as a clear cut rationale for invasion, and Israel has essentially admitted that an attack on Iran is not only on the table but beyond planning stages into near implementation.  Even Israeli citizens are openly worried that their government is “serious” this time in its calls for preemptive attack, stockpiling gas masks and even protesting against the policy: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/israel-plans-for-iran-strike-as-citizens-say-government-serious.html The tension of the atmosphere surrounding this crisis is unlike anything the Middle East has seen in decades, and that includes the U.S. invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. But before we can understand the true gravity of this situation, we must first confront some misconceptions… Firstly, I realize that there are many people out there who have natural and conditioned inclinations towards the hatred of Muslim nations.  There are also just as many people out there who are inclined to distrust the intentions of the government of Israel.  Both sides make good points on occasion, and both sides also have a tendency to get lazy, painting with a ridiculously broad brush and blaming all the woes of the world on one side or the other so that they don’t have to think through the complexities of globalism and the one world technocratic club, or accept that “Al-Qaeda” is not the biggest threat to peace and stability.  It’s much easier to convict an entire race, or an entire religion, than it is to comprehend the mechanizations of an elite minority that plays both sides off each other. Whatever side you may favor, simply know that in the end the sides are irrelevant.  We could argue for months about who is just, who is right, who was there first, etc.  Again, it’s irrelevant.  What does matter, though, are the potential consequences of an exponential conflict in the region, which no one can afford. Sadly, there are still plenty of Americans out there that believe the U.S. is the “richest nation on the globe” and has finances beyond reckoning with which to wage endless wars.  Here are the facts.  Here is exactly what will happen if the U.S., NATO, or Israel, enter into a hot war with either Iran or Syria, and the results are not optimistic: 1)  Syria And Iran Will Join Forces In 2006, Iran and Syria signed a mutual defense treaty in response to the growing possibility of conflict with the West.  Both countries are highly inclined to fulfill this treaty, and it would seem that Iran is already doing so, at least financially, as Syria spirals into civil war.  In fact, the U.S. supported insurgency in Syria was likely developed in order to strain or test the mutual aid treaty.  Given that the CFR is now applauding Al-Qaeda for its efforts in destabilizing the country, I hardly find it outlandish to suggest that the entire rebellion is being at least loosely organized by NATO interests to either draw Iran into open military support of Assad and a weakening proxy war, or to remove Syria from the equation in preparation for a strike on Iran itself (take notice that whenever the mainstream media shows images of Syrian rebels, they are always smiling or looking valiant with guns held high; a typical subliminal tactic used to paint them as “the good guys”): http://www.cfr.org/syria/al-qaedas-specter-syria/p28782 2)  Iran Will Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz With all the grandstanding at the Department of Defense, you would think that the Hormuz is a non-issue.  This is a mistake.  The strait is around 21 miles wide at its narrowest point which lays right off the coast of Iran, however, of that 21 miles only two safe shipping lanes are available, each measuring a miniscule 2 miles across.  Hormuz is one of two of the most vital oil transit checkpoints in the world, and approximately 20% of all oil produced passes through it.  The logistics for blocking the two working shipping lanes on the strait are simple given the existence of the new Ghader Missile System, which Iran tested successfully this year.  The weapon is specifically designed as a “ship-killer” with the ability to travel at Mach 3, and evade most known radar methods: http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-01-01/iran-missile-test/52318422/1 In the tightly boxed in waterways of the Hormuz, a large scale and difficult to track missile attack would be devastating to any Navy present, and would turn the sea lanes into a junk yard impossible to navigate for oil tankers.  Result?  A catastrophic inflationary event in oil around the world, making gasoline unaffordable for most people and most uses.  The EU’s recent move to stockpile oil in preparation for an Iran strike reveals the seriousness of the situation:http://www.euractiv.com/energy/europe-starts-piling-oil-iran-wa-news-514340  3)  Israeli Action Will Draw In The U.S. Forget what the U.S. Joint Chief of Staff General Martin Dempsey says; the U.S. will absolutely involve itself militarily in Iran or Syria following an Israeli strike.  To begin with, there is no way around a supporting or primary role, especially when Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz.  With 20% of the world’s oil supply on hiatus, at least half of the American populace will be crying out for U.S. military involvement.  Guaranteed.  Dempsey’s claim that Israel may not get American support is simply a charade meant to infer that the subversion of Syria and Iran is not necessarily a joint venture, which it absolutely is.  There is zero chance that an Israeli strike will not be met with frantic calls by the Pentagon and the White House to open the floodgates of U.S. military might and protect one of our few “democratic allies” in the Middle East.      4)  Syria Will Receive Support From Russia And China The Russian government has clearly stated on numerous occasions that they will not step back during a strike against Syria, and has even begun positioning naval ships and extra troops at is permanent base off the coast of Tartus, a development which I have been warning about for years: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/us-syria-russia-navy-idUSBRE8720AO20120803 Tartus is Russia’s only naval base outside the periphery of its borders, and is strategically imperative to the nation.  Action by the U.S. or Israel against Syria would invariably ellicit, at the very least, economic retaliation, and at the most, Russian military involvement and possible widespread war. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/21/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8610SH20120821 China, on the other hand, will likely respond with full scale financial retaliation, up to and including a dump of U.S. Treasury Bonds (a move which they have been preparing for since 2005 anyway).  With oil prices skyrocketing due to increased Middle Eastern distress, multiple countries including the BRIC trading bloc nations and most of the ASEAN trading bloc will have the perfect excuse to dump the dollar, allowing for the introduction of the IMF’s newly revamped SDR (Special Drawing Rights) global currency mechanism to take hold.   Syria is the key to what I believe will be an attempt on the part of globalists within our government to actually coax a volatile conflict into being, a conflict that will create ample cover for the final push towards global currency, and eventually, global governance. 5)  Economic Implosion Will Become “Secondary”…To The Banksters’ Benefit In the minds of the general public, the economic distress that we will soon face regardless of whether or not there is ever a war with Iran and Syria will be an afterthought, at least for a time, if the threat of global combat becomes reality.  The fog of war is a fantastic cover for all kind of crime, most especially the economic kind.  Sizable wars naturally inhibit markets and cause erratic flux in capital flows.  Anything, and I mean anything, can be blamed on a war, even the destruction of the U.S. economy and the dollar.  Of course, the real culprits (international and central banks) which have been corrupting and dismantling the American fiscal structure for decades will benefit most from the distraction. Syria and Iran are, in a way, the first dominos in a long chain of terrible events.  This chain, as chaotic as it seems, leads to only one end result:  Third world status for almost every country on the planet, including the U.S., leaving the financial institutions, like monetary grim reapers, to swoop in and gather up the pieces that remain to be fashioned into a kind of Frankenstein economy.  A fiscal golem.  A global monstrosity that removes all sovereignty whether real or imagined and centralizes the decision making processes of humanity into the hands of a morally bankrupt few. For those on the side of Israel, the U.S., and NATO, and for those on the side of the Middle East, Russia China, etc., the bottom line is, there will be no winners.  There is no "best case scenario".  There will be no victory parade, for anyone.  There will be no great reformation or peace in the cradle of civilization.  The only people celebrating at the end of the calamitous hostilities will be the hyper-moneyed power addicted .01%, who will celebrate their global coup in private, laughing as the rest of the world burns itself out, and comes begging them for help.