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29 марта, 19:51

Figuring Out Which Companies and Industries Will Be Most Damaged by Brexit

Now that Theresa May, the British prime minister, has announced that the UK will invoke Article 50, triggering a two-year countdown to withdrawal from the European Union, some things have become clearer. Though it is hard to predict how a bargaining game involving strong emotions as well as economics will play out, we can offer some conjectures about what will happen. These conjectures are mostly based on what I have called the law of distance — the observation that the interactions between two countries are proportional to their sizes (GDPs) and inversely proportional to the distance between them. Distance, in this sense, is not just physical distance but also cultural distance (e.g., whether two countries have different/similar official languages) and administrative distance (e.g., the absence or presence of a historical colony-colonizer link between the two). The law of distance has been associated with some of the most robust results in international economics, which is why it underpinned the UK Treasury’s generally well-regarded analysis, a year ago, of the long-term consequences of Brexit. The UK’s Natural Markets First, think of the claim, made repeatedly by the UKIP and other pro-Brexiteers: that the UK’s “real friends” (in Nigel Farage’s words) are better targets for British commercial policy than the EU. Or, as UKIP’s spokesman for the Commonwealth poetically put it, “Outside the EU, the world is our oyster, and the Commonwealth remains that precious pearl within.” How realistic is the assertion that the UK might be able to gain more from a free hand in negotiating with the Commonwealth — former British Empire states such as Canada, Australia, India, and South Africa — than it might lose in terms of access to the EU? Note, first of all, that the GDP of the rest of the Commonwealth is only 55% as large as that of the rest of the EU — a difference that seems to disfavor the assertion — as captured in the circle on the left in the graphic below. The middle circle shows this adjusted for the effect of physical distance, since the economic mass of the EU is 8.4 times closer than the Commonwealth. The blue circle in this part of the graphic uses a more generous estimate of distance-sensitivity, while the dashed line uses a more conservative one (drawn from hundreds of studies of merchandise exports). Using that more conservative measure reduces the estimated market potential for the Commonwealth versus the EU even further, to less than 2%. Of course, we also have to account for the cultural and administrative respects in which the Commonwealth might be intrinsically closer to the UK and the EU. The UK has a common official language (English) with 91% of the rest of the Commonwealth (on a GDP-weighted basis) and a colony-colonizer link with 99%, versus only 2% on both factors with the rest of the EU. Based on my estimates that a common language normally boosts trade by 2.2x and that a colony-colonizer link has a multiplier effect of 2.5x, the joint effect of the two (5.5x) in boosting market potential in the Commonwealth is substantial, as the blue circle on the right-hand side of the figure above shows. Even so, the predicted market opportunity in the rest of the EU remains several times larger. (Again, the dashed line is the more conservative estimate.) The joint effect of a common language and colony-colonizer link would have to be much larger than in any previous study of which I am aware to reverse the conclusion of a larger natural market in the EU. Additionally, it holds well beyond the realm of merchandise trade: It also applies to services trade and by extension foreign direct investment (FDI), which are particularly important for the UK. The snapshot nature of this analysis also skips over some of the dynamics of actually negotiating trade agreements with the 52 other countries in the Commonwealth — at a time when Britain has very few experienced trade negotiators (as of last summer, roughly 0.5 per Commonwealth country). Will the UK on its own really have the leverage to achieve better terms with the Commonwealth countries than it currently enjoys with the EU? Consider that Britain accounts for only 16% of EU GDP. One pessimistic perspective on the hope of real friendship trumping all else is provided by the generally disappointing results of Theresa May’s visit to India last November. While the British wanted more trade and investment ties, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, explicitly linked that to relaxation of British visa conditions for Indians intent on studying the UK. Like the EU, India has problems with British insistence on stringent controls over people inflows. Moreover, the tenor of the relationship between the UK and the EU is not good: Compare Britons insisting that the UK could exit without paying a “brass farthing” versus the EU’s claims for £50 billion or more. Consider the combative personalities of some of the key negotiators. Add in the consideration that Brexit, even if accomplished with a maximum rather than minimum of goodwill, will hurt Britain’s trade with the EU for purely technical reasons, and it seems safe to predict that there will be a deterioration of trading relationships with Britain’s largest natural market; the only question is to what extent. Industry Implications Given that relatively safe prediction, the natural next question is which industries and companies are likely to be hurt the most and therefore face the greatest need to reconsider their current operating models. In this context, what Brexit is likely to change the most is the administrative distance between the UK and its former partners in the EU. This suggests that industries with a high degree of sensitivity to administrative distance are likely to be affected the most — unless, of course, the provisions under which UK-based operations can access EU markets happen to be eased the most for them (which, at least from the perspective of EU concessions, looks implausible right now). Note that (correlated) indicators of administrative sensitivity include industries that are subject to high levels of regulation, produce staples or “entitlement” goods or services, are large employers or suppliers to the government, include national champions, are construed as vital to national security, control natural resources, or require large, irreversible, geographically specific investments. No wonder financial services firms with extensive cross-border operations, for whom the EU “financial passport” is very important, are rethinking the extent to which their European personnel are based in the UK or on the continent (e.g., Goldman Sachs’ announcement, earlier this week, that it would be will shifting jobs away from London while adding several hundred in Europe—during just the first stage of Brexit). Other markers of industry sensitivity to Brexit include high levels of scale economies that need to be amortized over (international) regional markets, rather than just by national markets (BMW’s discussions of whether to move the manufacture of the Mini outside the UK despite the very British image of that brand); high levels of trade-dependence on either the export or the import side (the EU is an even more important source for the UK’s imports than it is a destination for the UK’s exports); and belonging to the service sector (a sector of particular importance to Britain but one in which overcoming barriers often requires investment treaties as well as trade agreements). Company Implications At the company level, there are some additional attributes that seem likely to be associated with high degrees of exposure to Brexit. Companies with particularly high levels of export or import-dependency in relation to their competitors are likely to be hardest hit (think, in the U.S. context, of the asymmetric responses of New Balance and Nike to Trump’s scrapping of TPP — the former had stayed focused on local manufacture whereas the latter had built up international supply chains). Small firms that aren’t yet exporters or importers are also likely to be hurt more, at least in terms of a narrowing of their opportunity sets: Such firms typically look nearby for their first international transactions. And even where products or services aren’t flowing across borders, companies that use Britain, particularly London, as their regional headquarters for serving all of Europe (e.g., many U.S. multinationals) are likely to need to reconsider basing that role there — as may, for that matter, companies that use London as their global headquarters, especially if most of their business is outside the UK (e.g., Vodafone, which derives some 85% of its revenues from outside the UK, according to Bloomberg). The British companies that may have private reasons to cheer are those focused on the UK that are trying to hold off regional or even global competitors at home. Which is a reminder of the importance of granularity in forming such assessments — not all companies within the same industry, let alone all industries, will be affected in the same way. Similarly, in terms of what is to be done, once again, the appropriate response will be predicated on the specifics of a company’s situation. But given the separate tracks down which the UK and the EU seem to be moving, there is more cause than not to consider making changes to your strategy.

28 марта, 19:24

Иностранные инвесторы устремились в Иран

Западные компании заключили десятки соглашений с тех пор, как в 2015 г. с Ирана были сняты санкции благодаря международному соглашению об ограничении его ядерной программы. Французские Peugeot и Renault будут выпускать в Иране автомобили. Британская Vodafone вместе с местным партнером построит телекоммуникационную инфраструктуру. Крупные нефтяные компании, включая Royal Dutch Shell, подписали предварительные соглашения на добычу энергоресурсов. Siemens и другие инфраструктурные гиганты договорились о крупных проектах.

28 марта, 11:12

Укропия: Хроники нашего маразмария

Когда Великий Кормчий и, по совместительству – Верховный Главноторгующий говорит: «Запишите, завтра безвиз!» - никто уже не верит. Но, когда в парах державного перегара прозвучало: «Я недопущу досрочных выборов!», все, как это ни странно, поверили и… стали усиленно готовиться к этим самым очередным внеочередным выборам.

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24 марта, 20:46

Week in Review, March 25

Google faces backlash; Barclays, Baidu, Vodafone and Westinghouse also in the news

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23 марта, 20:10

Телеком-операторы договорились обменяться частотами для 4G

Киевстар, Vodafone, и Lifecell договорились об обмене радиочастотами в диапазоне 1800 МГц

23 марта, 12:08

Связь "Киевстар", "Vodafone Украина", lifecell и "Укртелеком" в Балаклее продолжает работать

ПАО "Укртелеком" продолжает предоставлять услуги фиксированной телефонии и интернета в городе Балаклея Харьковской области, неподалеку от которой происходит пожар на военных складах.

22 марта, 18:19

Африканские интернет-дроны как символ маразма ренессансной цивилизации

Solara приводится в движение двигателем с воздушным винтом большого диаметра, который подпитывается энергией солнечных батарей, встроенных по всей площади крыльев "атмосферного спутника". Солнечные батареи заряжают аккумуляторы, которые обеспечивают работу электромотора в ночное время суток.

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21 марта, 16:43

Vodafone Украина увеличил доход на 11% в 2016 году

Оператор мобильной связи Vodafone Украина по итогам 2016 года получил доход в раз мере 11,1 млрд гривен, что на 11% больше, чем за предыдущий год.

21 марта, 14:49

Frontrunning: March 21

Gorsuch Strives to Present Himself as Above Political Fray (WSJ) Investigation Could Hurt Trump’s Clout in Congress (WSJ) U.S. to Ban Laptops and Tablets in Cabins of Some Mideast Flights (BBG) Tillerson no-show at NATO renews European disquiet about Trump (Reuters) Don’t Blame Your Social Media Feed for the Growing Political Divide (BBG) High-Frequency Traders Fall on Hard Times (WSJ) Senate GOP Holdouts Split Into Rival Camps on Health Revamp  (BBG) California’s Wet Winter Points to Some Sorry-Looking Salads (WSJ) Exclusive: Trump administration weighing broad sanctions on North Korea (Reuters) U.K. Inflation Gains More Than Forecast, Breaching BOE Goal (BBG) French presidential debate lifts euro to six-week highs (Reuters) Shell’s Titanic Bet: Can Deep-Water Drilling Be Done on the Cheap? (WSJ) Meet the 13 Million Nerds That Apple's Counting On  (BBG) Macron on Top After First Debate of French Presidential Election  (BBG) Rookie Currency Traders Are Causing Trouble at Crucial Moments (BBG) Two in Five Americans Say They’ll Need $1 Million to Retire (BBG) Porsche SE has no information about Piech's stake sale talksa (Reuters) What the Biggest Banks Are Planning Once Brexit Starts (BBG) Merkel ally says Turkey's Erdogan 'not welcome' in Germany (Reuters)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ - SoftBank Group Corp scrapped a planned $100 million investment in a smartphone startup founded by the creator of Google's Android software, partly because of the Japanese investor's increasingly close relationship with Apple Inc, according to people familiar with the matter. http://on.wsj.com/2mOznOV - Costco Wholesale Corp, which improbably caused a frenzy in the golf world when it started selling low-priced but well-reviewed balls last year, filed a lawsuit against the parent company for Titleist, maker of the self-proclaimed "number one ball in golf." http://on.wsj.com/2mOzxpv - Vodafone Group Plc said it would merge its embattled Indian business with a local rival, a $24 billion move that would create India's largest wireless company and could strengthen the British telecommunication company's standing in a cutthroat market. http://on.wsj.com/2mOImzj - A rift between Political-news outlet Politico's co-founder and chief executive, Jim VandeHei, and its owner, Robert Allbritton, over its direction triggered VandeHei's abrupt departure, along with those of star reporter Mike Allen and three top executives. VandeHei warned various executives that a wave of additional exits might follow, two people familiar with the matter say. http://on.wsj.com/2mOMOyk - An executive for Alphabet Inc's Google apologized for commercials that appeared before extremist videos on its YouTube site and said it would simplify tools that enable advertisers to control where their ads appear. http://on.wsj.com/2mOzp9q - Alternative Bank Schweiz AG, the first Swiss bank to require all depositors to pay to leave money with it, posted a jump in 2016 profit, suggesting the strategy is working. http://on.wsj.com/2mONOT0 - Honda Motor Co's U.S. unit said in January it would shift its more-than-$500-million media-buying account from Mediavest Spark, a unit of advertising giant Publicis Groupe , to an independent agency. http://on.wsj.com/2mOKhUL - Qualcomm Inc is introducing a new product designed to bring faster wireless service to basic, lower-priced cellphones in emerging markets, an attempt to bolster the chip giant's reach among consumers who can't afford smartphones. http://on.wsj.com/2mOtDVq   FT * Uber is facing a new legal challenge in London's high court over its payment of value added tax. * Jeremy Fleming, the deputy director general of Britain's internal security service, will become the new head of intelligence eavesdropping service GCHQ. * Britain's Vodafone Group and Idea Cellular agreed on Monday to merge their Indian operations in a $23 billion deal, creating the country's biggest telecoms business after the entry of a new rival sparked a brutal price war. * Hedge fund Elliott Management Corp, which is in the throes of a proxy battle with Arconic Inc, demanded on Monday an independent review of the company's voting agreement with private equity firm Oak Hill Capital Partners. * Google apologised on Monday for allowing ads to appear alongside offensive videos on YouTube as more high-profile firms such as Marks & Spencer and HSBC pulled advertising for British markets from Google sites.   NYT - Walmart is expanding its e-commerce ambitions, and has tapped a Jet executive to help it build new start-ups within the company. Walmart announced on Monday that it had formed Store No 8, an internal venture meant to hatch new online retail businesses. http://nyti.ms/2nEN1YG - Bank of America has poached a top rainmaker for financial services companies from Morgan Stanley. Eric Bischof, who helped advise the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on matters related to the American International Group, will join Bank of America as co-head of its global financial institutions group, serving alongside Jim O'Neil in New York. http://nyti.ms/2mK8PNX - The British government said on Monday that it intended to formally notify the European Union on March 29 of its intention to leave the bloc, putting the country on track to complete a withdrawal by early 2019. http://nyti.ms/2mK7EOp   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL ** Wednesday's federal Liberal budget won't announce plans to sell off Canada's major airports, even though such a move could raise billions in one-time revenue for a government that has little room left for new spending. https://tgam.ca/2nhJDSR ** Rogers Communications Inc paid its outgoing CEO Guy Laurence a total of C$42.6 million ($32 million) for his three years with the company, according to a financial filing. https://tgam.ca/2nFSvT4 ** Alberta's Wildrose Party, which serves as the Official Opposition, has agreed to negotiate a reunification deal with the province's Progressive Conservatives, with both pledging not to dominate the talks as they kick off a polite power struggle. https://tgam.ca/2nhUrAd NATIONAL POST ** Canada's biggest banks will be among the first to use a digital identity network powered by blockchain when Toronto-based SecureKey Technologies — in partnership with IBM — launches it later this year. http://bit.ly/2nfAhXA ** Alberta Finance Minister Joe Ceci heard pointed criticism of his government's C$10.3 billion ($7.73 billion) budget deficit and rapidly rising debt levels Monday as he tried to allay the business community's concerns about the province's fiscal plan at a Calgary Chamber of Commerce breakfast. http://bit.ly/2nNlnFQ ** The EU is worried about a protectionist U.S. White House that appears to see trade as a game that some countries win and others lose. EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom told a meeting at the University of Toronto on Monday that trade agreements create benefits by lowering consumer prices and creating more jobs. http://bit.ly/2mLcNWl   Britain The Times Nearly 15 years after Tesco Plc bought One Stop it is still paying staff at the convenience chain less and charging customers more for products than in its Tesco Express outlets. http://bit.ly/2n7PSIf Aberdeen Asset Management Plc and Standard Life have given more details about how the joint chief executives of the enlarged business will split their roles in an attempt to head off investors' concern. http://bit.ly/2n84RlB The Guardian HSBC Holdings Plc , the Royal Bank of Scotland Plc , Lloyds Banking Group Plc , Barclays Plc and Coutts are among 17 banks based in the UK, or with branches here, that are facing questions over vast money-laundering operation run by Russian criminals with links to the Russian government and the KGB. http://bit.ly/2n7GFQ8 Theresa May has informed the European council that she will trigger article 50 on Wednesday 29 March, but European sources have made clear that Britain could be forced to wait until June to embark on formal talks. http://bit.ly/2n7KYei The Telegraph Arcadia Group chairman Philip Green "prioritised his loyal senior managers" with his 363 million pounds ($449.21 million)deal to help plug the BHS pension black hole, MPs scrutinising the agreement have concluded. http://on.wsj.com/2n7StSN Sports Direct International Plc has lost a trademark battle against a small online business despite claiming that the company, run by a husband and wife team, would confuse consumers about its burgeoning gym business. http://bit.ly/2n7QjSU Sky News Japan Tobacco International (JTI) and Imperial Brands Plc are examining whether to pump tens of millions of pounds into P&H in return for an equity stake. http://bit.ly/2n1fbtW George Osborne has defended his shock appointment as the new London Evening Standard editor after facing criticism for saying he will stay on as an MP while also heading up the newspaper from this May. http://bit.ly/2n7GzrT The Independent UK's ambassador to Europe Tim Barrow has warned that the EU will push for Britain to pay a hefty Brexit "divorce bill" after Theresa May triggers Article 50 on March 29. http://ind.pn/2n7O8yM  

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21 марта, 13:11

Samsonite защитил багаж от кражи

Американский производитель чемоданов Samsonite совместно с мобильным оператором Vodafone представил специальное устройство, при помощи которого можно отслеживать местоположение багажа — Track&Go. Если чемодан или сумка окажется слишком далеко, владелец получит сигнал на смартфон.

21 марта, 11:13

В Google сожалеют, что показывали YouTube-рекламу в экстремистских роликах

Мэтт Бриттин, глава европейского подразделения корпорации Google, принес извинения от имени компании рекламодателям за размещение их объявлений на YouTube вместе с роликами экстремистского содержания. Об этом пишет RNS со ссылкой на Reuters.

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21 марта, 00:32

Vodafone объявил о слиянии с Idea Cellular в Индии

Путь Vodafone на индийский рынок был непростым. В 2007 г. британская корпорация купила за 6 млрд фунтов стерлингов ($7,4 млрд) мажоритарный пакет акций Hutchison Essar, а пятью годами позже индийские налоговики потребовали от нее уплатить налоговую задолженность в размере $2,5 млрд. Vodafone оспорил это решение в международном арбитражном суде, и этот конфликт пока не исчерпан. Кроме того, индийский бизнес Vodafone пострадал от жесткой ценовой конкуренции – в 2010 и 2016 гг. Vodafone India пришлось списать активы на общую сумму 6,6 млрд фунтов стерлингов.

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20 марта, 21:58

YouTube is like the wild west – why won't Google pay to clean it up?

The tech giant has apologised for ads appearing next to extremist videos – but it needs to take action, not just rely on usersThe first rule of making an apology is simple: be clear about what you are apologising for. Matt Brittin, head of Google’s operations in Europe, failed the test. Was Google taking responsibility for allowing the company’s YouTube site to be polluted with extremist videos produced by terror preachers and racists? Or was he merely apologising to advertisers for the fact that some of their messages appeared alongside such offensive material? Continue reading...

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20 марта, 20:46

Here's How Amazon Is Expanding Prime Video In India

After launching Prime Video at a much cheaper rate compared to Netflix in India, Amazon is now moving fast with partnerships to expand its user base in the country. The company recently partnered with telecom provider Vodafone giving its customers access to Amazon Prime video at promotional rates.

20 марта, 18:29

Индия: слияние операторов Vodafone и Idea - economy

На рынке телекоммуникации Индии появится новый лидер. Британская компания Vodafone и индийский мобильным оператор Idea Cellular объявили о слиянии операций в Индии.Завершение сделки стоимостью в 23 миллиарда долларов состоится в следующим году. В результате слияния будет создана новая компания, в которой Vodafone получит 45,1%акционерного капитала. Клиентская база объединенной компании составит почти 400 миллионов пользователей, а рыночная доля -- 35%. Сделка указывает на трансформацию индустри… ЧИТАТЬ ДАЛЕЕ: http://ru.euronews.com/2017/03/20/vodafone-to-merger-indian-business-with-local-rival euronews: самый популярный новостной канал в Европе. Подписывайтесь! http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=euronewsru euronews доступен на 13 языках: https://www.youtube.com/user/euronewsnetwork/channels На русском: Сайт: http://ru.euronews.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/euronews Twitter: http://twitter.com/euronewsru Google+: https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/101036888397116664208/100240575545901894719/posts?pageId=101036888397116664208 VKontakte: http://vk.com/ru.euronews

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20 марта, 17:41

Vodafone-Idea: Will India's Biggest Telecom Disrupt the Disrupter

Vodafone in India faces a classic disrupter problem: What do you do when your competitor gives your product away for free?

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20 марта, 16:45

Индия: слияние операторов Vodafone и Idea

На рынке телекоммуникации Индии появится новый лидер.

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20 марта, 16:45

Индия: слияние операторов Vodafone и Idea

На рынке телекоммуникации Индии появится новый лидер.

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20 марта, 15:18

Vodafone Creates India's Biggest Telco, As Jio Races Ahead

India’s biggest telcos are in a massive price war to try and keep up with the rapid growth of Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio.

20 марта, 13:58

Vodafone и Idea Cellular договорились о слиянии

Британский оператор сотовой связи Vodafone договорился объединить свои операции в Индии с конкурирующей компанией Idea Cellular. Сделка позволит создать крупнейшую в стране телекоммуникационную компанию.