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17 сентября, 19:01

Automakers see promise in China car-sharing

Unable to afford a car, Shanghai university student Long Yi faces a lengthy, expensive commute across his vast city but has found a solution in the car-sharing schemes quickly gaining momentum in China. Essentially

17 сентября, 17:41

Here’s When BMW and Other Automakers Will Abandon Gasoline

Hybrids and EVs make up a small percentage of cars on the road. But that's going to change very soon. Here's when these automakers plan on going electric.

17 сентября, 10:50

Молодежный кубок мира по хоккею 2017 все новости. Подробные данные на 17.09.2017 г.

А что же Ford? В Старом Свете он в основном фокусируется на автоспорте, но с 1992 года компания является официальным спонсором Лиги чемпионов УЕФА (UEFA Champions League), и все говорит о том, что это партнерство продолжится и в будущем. Современный спорт – не только радость побед и горечь поражений. Это еще и крупнейшая отрасль мировой … Читать далее →

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15 сентября, 20:21

Uber's Road to IPO: Will It Live Up to the Hype?

Without a doubt, investors are eagerly awaiting an Uber IPO, and this particular debut would be massive for both the company and Wall Street. But when the ride hailing giant finally does go public, will it ever live up to the hype?

15 сентября, 16:45

Autoliv Stock Soars on Electronics Segment Split-Off Plan

Autoliv, Inc. (ALV) intends to split its two business segments -- Passive Safety and Electronics. This plan of separation lifted its shares.

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15 сентября, 15:00

Volvo назвала дату дебюта нового кроссовера и случайно рассекретила его

Официально заявлено, что до показа компактного вседорожника XC40 – еще как минимум неделя, и Volvo собирается с силами для некоего большого мероприятия. При этом благодаря не слишком аккуратным дилерам компании внешность кроссовера уже не является секретом.

15 сентября, 09:40

Франкфурт-2017: Будущее, от которого не по себе

Изучаем главные премьеры автосалона, где традиционно доминируют немцы

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15 сентября, 04:00

Богатые знаменитости, которые живут скромной жизнью

Некоторые знаменитости, не смотря на миллиарды на своих счетах, роскошные автомобили, шикарные пентхаусы и особняки, ведут очень скромный образ жизни. Холли Берри Холли Берри «Я очень благодарна за свою удачу, но одно из моих самых больших опасений заключается в том, что я могу потерять все это», — сказала Холли Берри. Как и всякая обычная домохозяйка, она покупает продукты со своим ребенком в супермаркетах. Одна из самых высокооплачиваемых актрис в Голливуде использует общественный транспорт и считает эту привычку абсолютно нормальной. Кейт Мидлтон Кейт Мидлтон Герцогиня Кембриджская предпочитает носить простые, но элегантные платья не только в обычной жизни, но и при посещении общественных мероприятий. Она считается одной из первых знаменитостей, которые начали носить одежду массового рынка и не испытывали никаких сомнений по этому поводу. Кейт несколько раз нарушала протокол, нося одно и то же платье более одного раза. Это отношение к вещам добавляет придает ей еще большую популярность. Читайте также: Родственники убитого костанайского психиатра требуют с виновных 6 млн тенге>> Сара Джессика Паркер Сара Джессика Паркер Одежда Сара Джессики Паркер в реальной жизни ничем не отличается от ее одежды в «Сексе в большом городе». Она предпочитает простые, но удобные наряды. И те же принципы она прививает своим детям. Мэтью МакКонахи Мэтью МакКонахи Трудно поверить, но обладатель Оскара Мэтью МакКонахи жил в трейлере — даже после того, как он сделал свои первые миллионы, играя в романтических комедиях. Он сказал, что его трейлер был связан с минимализмом в жизни, который является лучшим антистрессовым оружием, потому что большой дом требует большого внимания и энергии. Киану Ривз Киану Ривз Один из любимейших актеров мира не беспокоится о своих доходах от кинопроектов. Киану отдал почти 85% своих доходов от «Матрицы» команде по спецэффектам и костюмерам. «Деньги — это последнее, о чем я думаю. Я мог бы жить на то, что я уже заработал в течение следующих нескольких столетий», — сказал он в интервью. Очень часто его можно увидеть на общественном транспорте, покупающим одежду на распродажах или отдыхающим на скамейке в парке, а не в роскошном ресторане. Читайте также: В Уральске пассажирский поезд сбил женщину>> Джулия Робертс Джулия Робертс «У меня никогда не было платьев», — говорит Джулия. Одна из самых успешных и популярных актрис в Голливуде пользуется скромными нарядами, выращивает органические овощи в своем саду и вяжет одежду для своих детей. Дженнифер Лопес Дженифер Лопес Ходят слухи, что знаменитости тратят огромные суммы денег на покупку одежды для разных общественных мероприятий. Джей Ло разоблачила этот миф, одевшись в кружевное платье стоимостью 26 долларов на шоу American Idol. Интересно, что это был не единственный пример экономности певицы в ее выборе одежды. По данным Форбс, ее состояние составляет почти 34 миллиарда долларов. Ингвар Кампрад Ингвар Кампрад Основатель IKEA прочно засел в списке самых богатых людей на планете. Но он предпочитает рейсы эконом-класса, покупает подержанную одежду и управляет Volvo 1993 года. Некоторые люди называют его «мистер Скрудж» за его чрезвычайно скромный образ жизни. Читайте также: Рейс American Airlines отменили из-за скорпиона на борту>> Джоан Роулинг Джоан Роулинг В 2012 году доход знаменитой писательницы превысил 1 миллиард долларов, но позже большая часть была пожертвована благотворительным фондам. «Многие аспекты моей жизни совершенно обычны, можно даже назвать скучны, но это то, что мне нравится», — сказала Джоан Роулинг. Леди Гага Леди Гага Образ Леди Гаги стал синонимом «экстравагантного», но только на сцене. В реальной жизни она носит простые обычные наряды, которые она иногда покупает на распродажах. «Почему люди смотрят на меня так, как будто я сумасшедшая, когда я использую купоны в бакалейной лавке или пытаюсь торговаться на рынке?» - сказала как-то певица.

15 сентября, 01:43

Молодежный кубок мира по хоккею 2017 все новости. Последие сведения на 15.09.2017 г.

Другой бывший член Ford Premier Automotive Group, Jaguar Land Rover, также склоняется к поддержке «элитарных» видов спорта, хотя не чурается и массовыми. У себя на родине, в Англии, компания поддерживает и теннис, и конный спорт (включая поло), а также крикет и регби. А в РФ компания традиционно спонсирует Кубок Кремля по теннису и является … Читать далее →

15 сентября, 00:04

Tesla Is Overvalued: 5 Auto Stocks to Buy Instead

Here are 5 auto stocks you can sink your cash into.

13 сентября, 17:08

Первый пикап Mercedes и Volvo с движком 2400 л.с. показали на автосалоне COMTRANS в Москве. ФАН-ТВ

В выставочном центре «Крокус Экспо» в Москве прошел автосалон COMTRANS. Его посетители смогли увидеть выдающиеся новинки, которые представил Mercedes-Benz, Scania, Volvo, Foton и др. Собственный смотр техники провела съемочная группа ФАН-ТВ.

13 сентября, 12:55

Франция планирует покончить с добычей нефти и газа к 2040 г.

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До конца текущего года французские власти рассчитывают принять новый законопроект, предполагающий поэтапный запрет разведки и добычи углеводородов во Франции и ее заморских территориях. Это первая страна в мире, решившая пойти на такой радикальный шаг. Французский президент Эммануэль Макрон планирует таким образом нейтрализовать негативное воздействие выбросов парниковых газов к 2050 г. Однако опыт лидеров сегмента возобновляемой […]

12 сентября, 15:17

Китай намерен ввести запрет на продажи автомобилей, работающих на ископаемых видах топлива

Самая большая страна в мире призвала к переходу на электромобили. По мнению экспертов, возможно, наступит день, когда весь мир будет просто вынужден последовать примеру Китая

11 сентября, 15:42

Китай хочет запретить автомобили с бензиновыми и дизельными двигателями

Как сообщает CNNMoney, Китай готовится запретить автомобили с бензиновыми и дизельными двигателями автомобили. Чиновники говорят, что страна с крупнейшим в мире автомобильным рынком работает над планом запрета на производство и продажу транспортных средств, которые работают на ископаемых видах топлива. Китайское правительство идет по стопам таких стран, как Индия, Франция, Великобритания и Норвегия, которые уже объявили о планах полностью отказаться от автомобилей с автомобили с бензиновыми и дизельными двигателями в пользу более чистых автомобилей в ближайшие годы. По словам вице-министра промышленности Китая Синь Гуобина (Xin Guobin), регулирующие органы еще не решили, когда китайский запрет вступит в силу, но работа над планом началась. Он предупредил автопроизводителей, что им нужно адаптировать свои стратегии к меняющейся ситуации, сообщает государственное китайское информационное агентство Синьхуа (Xinhua). Власти будут предлагать субсидии на уровне 50% розничной стоимости электрических и некоторых гибридных транспортных средств, чтобы помочь поддержать производство, сообщает Синьхуа со ссылкой на чиновника из Министерства финансов Китая. Субсидии являются хорошей новостью для производителей электромобилей. Десятки моделей уже продаются во второй по величине экономике мира. И международные автогиганты, такие как Ford (F), General Motors (GM) и Volkswagen (VOW3), стремятся развить производство электромобилей в Китае. На китайском рынке уже доминируют отечественные производители, такие как BAIC и BYD (BYDDF), которые агрессивно развивали производство электромобилей. Акции BYD выросли на 4.6% в Гонконге в понедельник после комментариев китайских официальных лиц о возможном запрете, которые были озвучены на выходных. Китайская Volvo (VOLAF) объявила в июле, что, начиная с 2019 года, каждый автомобиль ее производства будет иметь электрический двигатель. Из-за загрязнения воздуха Китай оперативно принял эту технологию. По данным Международного энергетического агентства, в прошлом году на Китай приходилось более 40% всех 753 000 электромобилей, проданных в мире, что более чем в два раза превысило продажи в США. Но в то время как продажи электроэнергии в Китае быстро растут, страна по-прежнему остается рынком с доминантной позицией авто с бензиновыми и дизельными двигателями. По данным Международного энергетического агентства, из примерно 28 млн. автомобилей, проданных в Китае в прошлом году, лишь чуть более 1% были электрическими. По определению агентства, электромобили - это устройства, питаемые от батарей или гибридные автомобили, которые подключаются к источнику питания. Китайское правительство хочет к 2020 году 5 млн. электромобилей на дорогах страны. На премаркете акции Tesla (TSLA) повысились на 1.92% до $349.99, акции General Motors (GM) подорожали на 0.51% до $37.19, тогда как акции Ford (F) снизились на 0.26% до $11.33. Информационно-аналитический отдел TeleTradeИсточник: FxTeam

11 сентября, 14:16

Стив Маттин: «Мы совершили в России революцию в дизайне»

Главный дизайнер LADA рассказал АиФ.ru о том, в каких муках рождалось семейство «Весты» и как им удалось раскрыть секретный ДНК-код бренда.

08 сентября, 20:49

"10-Year Treasury Yields Headed To Zero Percent" - Saxo Bank CIO

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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, In his latest Email article, Steen Jakobsen, Saxo Bank Chief economist and CIO has a bold prediction about interest rates. With nearly everyone, even Janet Yellen at the Fed, predicting wage-induced inflation, Jakobsen makes a bold call in the opposite direction. This is a guest post by Steen Jakobsen Steen’s Chronicle: All Great Things are Simple, Except Right Now “All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honour, duty, mercy, hope” — Winston Churchill Let’s start with what is currently simple, and what has been simple all year. The US dollar has peaked and started a multi-year cycle lower as both US and world growth can’t work without a weaker dollar (a stronger dollar kills growth through debt service, emerging markets, and commodities). Everything is deflationary: demographics, technology, energy, and the debt mountain. The credit impulse peaked in late 2016/early 2017 leaving global growth vulnerable in the fourth quarter of 2016 and into Q1’17. US interest rates are headed to 0% in 10-year government yields by the end of 2018, early 2019. I am enclosing the word “simple” between a generously-sized pair of quotation marks because nothing is truly simple. But the themes outlined above have served us well throughout 2017 with the market having now given up on the Federal Reserve hiking rates beyond December.  This is because inflation in the US (and Europe) is more likely to hit 1% than 2%, and because growth – despite certain green shoots – remains considerably below historically normal recovery levels. Meanwhile, most central banks – most prominently the Fed – continue to believe in the old-school Phillips curve model, and through this mistake, they misguide markets on both inflation and growth – a classically dogmatic, bureaucratic way of thinking whose limits in a world of ever-changing technology are obvious. • New call: energy prices to fall by 50% over the next 10 years. For the balance of 2017 and into 2018, we will add that investors should expect considerably lower energy price levels to prevail as the electrification of cars goes mainstream. This will be led by China as electric cars represent a solution to the country’s pollution problems (viewed as “social priority number one” by authorities in Beijing). Petrol and diesel consumption by cars represents 55% of all oil consumption in the world and we deem the recent announcement by Volvo – now owned by China’s Geely (disclaimer: Geely also holds a 30% share in Saxo Bank) to be an indication of new industry standards. These being our main long-term macro themes, let’s look at the far more confusing short- and medium-term picture… USD, Trump  Disapproval Correlated 1:1 This probably comes as no great surprise but the correlation nevertheless confirms that even if Trump were successful in his policies, it would accelerate rather than slow the weakness of the dollar. The US runs an expanding current account deficit. It spends more money than it makes, and Trump says that this needs to be reduced. Fine… let’s do that, but let’s also realize that this would mean US living standards would fall as the current account deficit corrects. More precisely, the ability to spend money will fall as running a deficit is like living beyond your means. A surplus is the opposite. Sometimes facts and understanding can get in the way of politics. I know it’s sad, but a current account is one of the few things that can’t be manipulated as there is an offset with another country at the other end! Trump’s “America First” ethos is also anti-productivity as creating jobs for the mere sake of doing so is not the same as, and cannot compete with, creating productive jobs – and I apologize for stating the obvious! It’s clear that one of the few sectors in which the US remains competitive is technology, but the problem here also partly comes down to Trump. One of his key policies and longest-held views, after all, is that China is the “bad guy”. The US president seems committed to launching a trade war with China that, together with the US technology sector’s lack of a Chinese footprint, will give investors a wake-up call sooner rather than later. Right now, there are four billion people living in Asia (and the Indian subcontinent). By 2050, that number will have swelled to five billion – a five billion-strong market in which the US monopolies (Facebook, Google, and Amazon) have little or no market share. Good luck paying for 30 years of profit in a single share of Amazon given these conditions. Speaking of Amazon, I have to include this next chart. When listening to the younger traders on Saxo’s trading floor, it can seem like they forget that selloffs of 30-50% are the norm, not the exception, when looked at over a generation. This is my Nasdaq long-term chart combined with the crazy explosion of the Fed’s balance sheet. To understand the magnitude of the intervention made in 2008/09, look at the rate-of-change (ROC). Also, note how the Fed’s balance sheet no longer lends support to the market, but of course, negative convexity and reaching for yield carries the market forward by expanding P/Es into bubble territory … for now. BoC leads on bubbles, Phillips curve declared dead (by me!) The most interesting new development in central banking, however, is how some central banks are going it alone. Case in point? The Bank of Canada, which has now made two rate hikes independent of the Fed to deal with the country’s housing bubble. House prices in Canada are up 13% year-to-date and 200% since 2000; most of this is financed by 25-year amortization on five-year terms (i.e., rates are reset at five-year intervals). Two-year Canadian rates are now higher than their US equivalents for the first time ever, and the market is pricing in a 65% chance of another hike in December (and 40% in October). The point? Canada’s central bankers are clearly acting on bubbles and excess while the Fed and the European Central Bank continue to monitor the non-existent link between tight labour markets and inflation. This recent working paper from the Philadelphia Fed is interesting in terms of its relation to central bank policy and show even Fed’s own staff does not find support for the link between employment and inflation. Why is this relevant? Because central banks’ modus operandi is to peg policy to academic papers. Remember how I alerted you to pivot on the change in central banks’ quantitative easing consensus based on new evidence which found that QE without fiscal stimulus was inefficient? Well, I expect this paper to dictate a similar sea change away from reliance on Phillips curves and towards and increased focus on the deflationary effects of technology, demographics, and the debt burden. Don’t Believe Your eyes Don’t believe your eyes. The global economy is cooling. This is Saxo Bank’s global credit impulse monitor (the credit impulse is the “rate of change of change” of credit in the market = velocity of credit). Source: Saxo Bank This indicator leads markets by nine to twelve months and the magnitude of the current slowdown almost mirrors the equivalent slowdown in 2008/2009. I can already hear you protesting … “but the PMIs, the surveys, the data are improving!”. Sure, but these are all lagging indicators despite their fancy names and survey-based questions. Think of all economic and price data as having its own collective sine wave: These sine curves (data points) move forward and will have different peaks and troughs, but what’s interesting is when they all peak or bottom. What our credit impulse model says is that from the peak in Q4’16 there is a high probability of a big slowdown in the global economy 9-12 months later – so from October 2017 to March 2018. As I like to say, today’s economic data were created nine months ago by the amount of credit, the price of credit, and the energy prices seen following Donald Trump’s electoral win. The peak in activity seen in Q4’16/Q1’17, again, was created by massive credit creation post- the worst Q1 start in recent history (and one which drove the ECB and China to go full throttle on credit creation). This call for a significant slowdown coincides with several facts: the ECB’s QE programme will conclude by end-2017 and will at best be scaled down by €10 billion per ECB meeting in 2018. The Fed, for its part, will engage in quantitative tightening with its announced balance sheet runoff. All in all, the market already predicts significant tightening by mid-2018. We argue that the market is always late to the facts, hence the slowdown is now and is manifesting into a political situation where geopolitical risk continues to rise, where Trump is a lame-duck president, and where the debt mountain continues to grow while the repayment burden increases via “too low” inflation. This is a dangerous cocktail, particularly considering the high level of convexity and the low-volatility environment we are in. Asset allocation We have had the same positioning since Q1’17 (we use a Permanent Portfolio approach): Equities: 25% (respecting the momentum) Fixed income: 50% (see attached memo) Commodities: 25% (overweight gold and silver) Cash: zero We have recently reduced some of the risk as we are now: Equities: 10% (mainly gold mining stocks) Fixed Income: 25% (neutral weight) Commodities: 25% (neutral weight) Cash: 40% (overweight) The cash weighting, of course, is “too high” but we want to wait out September and Q4 to see how the credit impulse plays out. It’s been a good investor year and as J.P Morgan once said when asked how he became rich, “I took my profit too early” Conclusion I have purposely avoided discussing North Korea (where I think military escalation is inevitable); ECB tapering (which will be slow if at all); the Fed noise on Gary Cohn, Stanley Fischer and the lack of board members; the German election (major non-event); and Trump (lame-duck from here) to focus on what in my opinion truly drives the market: • The price of credit: Rising due to policy mistakes (read: Phillips curves)• The amount of credit: Dropping hard – contracting indicating slow-down from Q4-2017 into Q2-2018• Energy: The trend is clearly down and year-over-year changes dictate inflation inputs and direction So brace yourself and your portfolio for still-lower government yields, the flattening of yield curves (financial sector underperformance), and expected returns for stocks that on a good day with tailwinds will do 2-3% per annum versus 9-10% historically. When asked for the biggest lesson learned over more than 60 years in business, Vanguard founder John Bogle answered as follows: “reversion to the mean”. What’s hot today isn’t likely to be hot tomorrow, and the stock market reverts to fundamental returns over the long run. Is it simple? Hardly. If anything, we are moving further away from the simplicity embodied by five of Churchill’s six famous words.   We are moving away from freedom in terms of both markets and individual rights.   We are moving away from justice as monopolies continue to expand and inequality rises.   We are moving away from honour as mutual respect and common principles recede from view.   We are watching duty decline as our environment penalizes those who would stand by deals made and blocks those seeking to make necessary changes; increasingly, it even punishes those who would be accepting or merciful towards failure, In the final analysis, we are reduced to the last word: Hope. Here’s hoping. It could get worse before it gets better. Photo: Shutterstock -Steen Jakobsen is chief economist and CIO at Saxo Bank Mish Comments Asset deflation is coming. Price deflation will accompany or follow. Stocks are not priced for perfection, they are priced well beyond perfection. Reversion to the mean is a theory that I endorse. Stocks are headed for a major decline of 50% or more. How long the decline will take is the key variable. I don’t know, but I suspect many years rather than a 2008-2009 crash. A push is on for electric cars in China and Europe. Even if the US lags, demand for oil will decline. Add in a global slowdown, and the price of crude could easily collapse. I won’t be as bold as to predict 0% yield on 10-year Treasuries, but the idea has considerable merit. The Fed missed an excellent opportunity to hike and now pleads with the market to go along. I did not expect the Fed to get in more than two hikes. They got in four. Odds of a December rate hike, once near 70% are now around 33%. I stick with my prognosis: There won’t be another hike. The next move will be lower. A confrontation with North Korea may not be “inevitable” but any miscalculation by either side will make it so. It’s easy to be complacent about the chance of war, but if Seoul gets hits, an instant global recession will commence. Trump’s tariff policy is a disaster. The only saving grace is he hasn’t done much yet. Confidence in the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, and Bank of China will again come into question, in a major way. This will be good for gold. Gold vs Faith in Central Banks Related Articles Fed Study Shows Phillips Curve Is Useless: Admitting the Obvious North Korea Explodes Hydrogen Bomb, Triggers 6.3 Magnitude Earthquake: What’s Trump to Do? Disputing Trump’s NAFTA “Catastrophe” with Pictures: What’s the True Source of Trade Imbalances? Moral Outrage Over Low Wages: Canada Joins Trump With Threats of Walking Out on NAFTA Cummins New Electric Semi Truck Takes on Tesla: Another Cog in Autonomous Puzzle “Self Drive Act” Passes House Committee 54-0: Safety Standards Scrapped, 25,000 Driverless Cars Coming Right Up My key call: Asset deflation is coming. Price deflation will accompany or follow. The Fed is likely to panic. Trends in Sentiment, Asset Bubble, Gold As protection against Fed policies, it’s wise to own some gold. In case you missed it, please consider How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own? Finally, please consider my 38 slide powerpoint Venture Alliance Presentation on trends in sentiment, asset bubbles, and gold.

08 сентября, 15:16

Frontrunning: September 8

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Hurricane Irma threatens power losses for millions in Florida (Reuters) Back-to-Back Hurricanes to Test FEMA Reforms (WSJ) How Would the U.S. Defend Against a North Korean Nuclear Attack? (BBG) Russia says too early to decide on U.N. resolution on North Korea: Interfax (Reuters) Strongest Quake in a Century Hits Mexico, 15 Reported Dead (BBG) Ryan Bears Brunt of GOP Anger Over Trump’s Deal With Democrats (BBG) Trump’s Debt Deal Moves Forward, With Help From Democrats (WSJ) Houston CEOs Race to Mend a Storm-Battered Workforce (WSJ) Consumers Struggle to Get Answers From Equifax After Hack (BBG) Irma Batters Reinsurance Mutual Fund as Hurricane Nears Florida (BBG) Uber Faces FBI Probe Over?Program Targeting Rival Lyft (WSJ) Three Equifax Managers Sold Stock Before Cyber Hack Revealed (BBG) Trump anger at Cohn raises doubts about his White House tenure: sources (Reuters) U.S. Wants Shkreli Jailed After Offer of Clinton Hair Bounty (BBG) Erdogan urges U.S. to review 'political' charges against (Reuters) Israel Has a Playbook for Dealing With North Korea (BBG) Will Saudi Aramco deliver world record profit for next year's IPO? (Reuters) Monsanto fights to sell Arkansas farmers herbicide linked to crop damage (Reuters)   Overnight Media Digest WSJ - Amazon.com Inc on Thursday launched an plan to establish a second corporate headquarters in North America, creating up to 50,000 high-paying jobs, many in software development and most of them new. on.wsj.com/2wNapaV - President Donald Trump signaled he was open to making more deals with Democrats in Congress despite anger from fellow Republicans over a bipartisan agreement that passed the Senate Thursday. on.wsj.com/2wMN355 - Authorities on Thursday ordered more than 650,000 people to evacuate the Miami area as Hurricane Irma churned toward a possible collision with the mainland U.S. and after the Category 5 storm killed at least 11 people in the Caribbean. on.wsj.com/2wN0SAz - Guo Wengui, Chinese businessman who has alleged corruption among China's political and corporate elites, said he is seeking asylum in the U.S., Beijing tries to discredit him and try him on criminal charges. on.wsj.com/2wNhKaq - President Donald Trump refused to rule out military action against North Korea on Thursday, but he stopped short of answering a reporter's question as to whether he would tolerate a nuclearized North Korean state if the threat were contained. on.wsj.com/2wMKxf5 - Equifax Inc said Thursday that hackers gained access to some of its systems, potentially compromising the personal information of roughly 143 million U.S. consumers. on.wsj.com/2wMWJN9 - The Food and Drug Administration issued a scathing warning letter to a Pfizer Inc unit that manufactures the emergency auto-injector EpiPen, saying the company "failed to thoroughly investigate" product failures depsite patients' deaths. on.wsj.com/2wMWWQ8 - Eli Lilly Co announced plans on Thursday to cut roughly 8% of its global workforce, which includes 2,000 jobs in the U.S. on.wsj.com/2wMNIn5   FT * U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would prefer to avoid military action to deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat, but said previous diplomatic efforts have failed to pressure Pyongyang from developing its missiles. * British PR firm Bell Pottinger told its staff that it is likely to go under administration as early as next Monday after it failed to find a buyer, according to people familiar with the matter. * Saudi Arabia is revising parts of an economic development plan released a year ago but key policies, including fiscal reforms and a massive privatisation programme, according to an internal document seen by the Financial Times.   NYT - Equifax Inc, one of the three major consumer credit reporting agencies, said on Thursday hackers had gained access to company data that potentially compromised sensitive information for 143 million American consumers, including Social Security numbers and driver's license numbers. nyti.ms/2xTtBRI - Amazon.com Inc took the unusual step on Thursday of announcing it wants a second home outside Seattle, starting what is sure to be a fierce bidding war to lure Amazon — and the thousands of high-paying jobs it will bring to town — using a combination of tax breaks and other sweeteners. nyti.ms/2wMJ1sQ - Two planned streaming services of Walt Disney Co took clearer shape on Thursday, as the entertainment giant vowed to bring "Star Wars" and Marvel movies to one and proposed a novel approach to the other: sports á la carte. nyti.ms/2f7TyFJ - The Food and Drug Administration this week accused the drugmaker Pfizer Inc of failing to properly investigate reports of malfunctioning EpiPens, including incidents when patients died or became severely ill after the device failed to work. Pfizer manufactures the EpiPen, which treats allergic reactions, for the drugmaker Mylan NV. nyti.ms/2ePWWZ0   Canada THE GLOBE AND MAIL Veteran Canadian tech executive Les Rechan is joining Ottawa messaging and data-transfer technology firm Solace Corp as president and CEO, four months after the takeover of his previous company, Halogen Software Inc. (tgam.ca/2xQZud7) TransCanada Corp is seeking to halt a federal review of its C$15.7 billion ($12.97 billion) Energy East pipeline, raising the possibility the project could get scrapped in a move that would spare Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from having to make a politically charged decision on the project's fate. (tgam.ca/2xRwySm) The mayors of several Canadian cities are competing to become the home of Amazon.com Inc's second headquarters, a massive complex the company says comes with up to 50,000 jobs and more than $5-billion in investment over the next 15 years. (tgam.ca/2xRi0lk) NATIONAL POST Bell Media, the owner of TV networks CTV and TSN, on Thursday announced the promotion of three senior executives after its president of media sales, Steve Garvie, took a job as CEO of media investment firm GroupM's Canadian operations. (bit.ly/2xQZQAt)   Britain The Times - Eicher Motors Ltd, the Indian company that owns Royal Enfield, is set to make a binding bid to buy Volkswagen-owned Ducati of up to $2 billion by the deadline at the end of the month, according to a report in the Economic Times. bit.ly/2xaewxz - The votes of a single City investment house, Schroders Plc , saved Keith Hellawell, the Sports Direct International Plc chairman. Schroders confirmed that it had voted its 5.05 percent stake in support of Hellawell at the retail group's annual meeting on Wednesday. bit.ly/2xauKXg The Guardian - Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc has become the latest large carmaker to say it will stop launching new models solely powered by internal combustion engines, two months after Volvo AB pledged to do so. bit.ly/2xa18cE - Increases in payouts to victims of car crashes and botched operations are to be scaled back after a furious backlash by the insurance industry against Ministry of Justice plans. bit.ly/2xadNfv The Telegraph - Bovis Homes Group PLC's share price has soared more than 8 percent as its new Chief Executive Greg Fitzgerald updated investors on his strategic review. bit.ly/2xa38Sc - Charlotte Hogg, who resigned from the Bank of England earlier this year after failing to declare her brother's job at Barclays Plc, has been named the new head of Visa Inc's Europe business. bit.ly/2x9V1oy Sky News - Public relations firm Bell Pottinger Private Ltd is on the brink of collapsing into administration, just days after controversial work for a South African client led to its expulsion from its industry association. bit.ly/2xa9wZD - British Airways faces union opposition over its plans to address a "significant and growing" funding deficit by closing its main pension scheme. bit.ly/2xaachM The Independent - European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has sounded a warning about the rapid appreciation of the euro and said there were concerns expressed by "most members" of the ECB's governing council at its meeting this week over the euro exchange rate. ind.pn/2xabR75 - Consumer goods giant Unilever NV has snapped up tea group Pukka Herbs Ltd. ind.pn/2xasgbq  

01 сентября, 13:53

All Eyes On August Payrolls, As Global Stocks Rise In Bullish September Start; Yuan Surge Continues

With payrolls looming (our full preview is here), carbon-based traders around the globe are leery of putting on any major trades and so the overnight session has been rather dull, dominated by the now traditional overnight algo-mediated levitation, which means the VIX is lower and S&P futures are once again modest higher as European and Asian shares continue their ascent. “A decent payrolls number today would be the icing on the cake in a week that has seen some positive signs that the U.S. economy may be in better shape than was previously thought prior to Jackson Hole,” analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets writes in note. “Annual hourly wage growth is currently 2.5%, a little on the weak side for an economy supposedly at full employment, so a strong number here could increase the odds of another rate rise this year, most likely in December.” While we have penned a longer preview of today's jobs report, the only chart that may matter for today's payrolls print, expected at 180K, is the following from Morgan Stanley, which predicted the July print to the dot, and which anticipates a big miss in the August jobs number, at 136K vs the 180K expected (see full preview here). The Stocks Europe 600 Index is higher for a third day, the Stoxx 600 up 0.4%, starting off September with solid gains - after three months of strong Euro-driven declines -  with media companies among the winners after Vivendi SA sales beat estimates. the final Eurozone August manufacturing PMI printed as expected, and unchanged from the flash print, at 57.4. In a month traditionally reserved for time at the beach, euro- area factories increased output at one of the fastest rates since 2011. U.K. manufacturing expanded at the strongest pace in four months in August, lifted by both export orders and domestic demand. The Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 56.9 from a revised 55.3 in July, beating the consensus estimate of 55. The LME Index of six industrial metals soared to the highest in almost three years, with copper leading the charge following another strong Chinese PMI print overnight (see below). The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased 0.9 percent to the highest in more than two weeks. “European markets and U.S. futures are trading higher ahead of the most-watched economic data on the face of the Earth,” Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets U.K., said by email. “What traders have priced in very much in the market is that the Fed is going to struggle with respect to any further rate hike for this year.” Hawkish comments from ECB’s Nowotny on Friday morning briefly lifted EUR across the board and weighed on bund futures. Emerging market stocks were higher after still cheering their eighth straight month of gains as China’s yuan hit a fresh 14-month high and metals markets continued to rally. Industrial bellwether copper was up 0.4 percent at $6,818 a tonne. The LME contract price touched a peak of $6,872 on Thursday, the highest since September 2014. Japan’s benchmark bond yield fell below zero percent for the first time since November 16, sliding 1.5bps to -0.005%. The decline was unexpected as earlier in the session the Bank of Japan reduced its purchases of 3-to-5-year govt notes by 30b yen, to 300b yen from 330b yen on August 28 while keeping other maturity buckets unchanged. This marked a third open market purchase reduction in the past month, with cuts in the 5-to-10 year zone previously. Banks quickly jumped on the supply-shortage driven tapering bandwagon and, as Mitsubishi UFJ said "unless the BOJ cuts purchases further, the yield decline will deepen" while Makoto Suzuki, strategist at Okasan Securities, said that "even a further decrease in bond purchases is unlikely to cause a spike in yields." The drop in 10-year Japanese government bond yield below zero percent paves the way for further cuts in purchases at Bank of Japan’s next relevant market operation, said Akio Kato, general manager of trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. "Without a cut in purchases, yields will fall too low, given that the yield today fell below zero even as the BOJ reduced amount in 3-5 year zone" Kato added. "If the BOJ continues to cut a couple more times this month, annual buying would fall below 60t yen, calling into question the 80t yen annual monetary expansion target" the strategist said, cited by Bloomberg. Anyway, back to Asia ex Japan, where with the North Korean crisis forgotten, at least until the next time Kim lobs a handful of missiles over Japan and this time he hits something, South Korea’s won and China’s yuan gained while most other Asia’s emerging currencies were steady ahead of U.S. jobs data and amid holidays in some major Southeast Asian markets. The ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) were both supported at the open, but then pared some gains as the financial sector dragged alongside declining yields. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (flat) initially traded positive (Hang Seng pared gains heading into the close) despite a net weekly liquidity drain by the PBoC, as participants cheered better than expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which printed a 6-month high and showed New Orders and Exports components advanced at the fastest pace in multiple years. Government bonds were mixed while the MSCI EM Asia Index of shares advanced, supporting risk sentiment. “It’s hard to take any significant position before the U.S. jobs data,” Koji Fukaya, CEO at Tokyo-based FPG Securities, told Bloomberg. “The U.S. economy is solid and the Chinese economy has been stabilizing while the stocks are rising. Such a situation supports emerging currencies due to growing exports and portfolio inflows.” The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed following an overnight loss after a weak inflation report and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s comments that a weaker dollar is “somewhat better” for U.S. trade. The yen, the Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened even after Caixin China manufacturing PMI for August beat estimates. Speaking of China's "other" PMI indicator, one day after the official manufacturing survey sent commodities surging, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI printed at 51.6 for August, beating expectations of 51.0, and above July's. The New orders sub-index rose by fastest pacein more than 3 years and exports rose at the fastest pace in 7 years. Speaking of China, the onshore yuan headed for a 1.2% gain this week, the biggest advance since at least 2007. The CNY strengthened 0.5% to 6.5595 per dollar after the PBOC strengthened the yuan reference rate 0.15% to 6.5909 to the USD. The average year end forecast is 6.5896, according to 15 traders and analysts in a Bloomberg survey, so we are already below it. While Harvey continues to drift inland, its impact remains. Below is a summary courtesy of Bloomberg of what’s shaping the oil market on Friday: Explorer Pipeline planning to start lines over the weekend as full impact of storm Harvey on crude, product markets continues to play out. Petro-Logistics says OPEC’s August supply fell about 400k b/d. String of U.S. data due later, including nonfarm payrolls. Logjam grows to 29 oil tankers as 11 ports remain closed Total Port Arthur is said facing extended shutdown on power loss Texas storm bucks N.Y. traders with wild gasoline expiry swings NHC issues final advisory on Harvey; losing tropical character More worrying is what is coming after Harvey, which as we described yesterday, is Hurricane Irma, which one Weather Channel meteorologist described as having the "highest windspeed forecasts I've ever seen." Oil traders in particular will be closely following Irma's path, which some models see striking the Gulf of Mexico just two weeks after Harvey left historic damage and devastation in its wake. Speaking of oil, crude gave up much of Thursday’s increase, while gasoline remained at an elevated level after Tropical Storm Harvey knocked out a quarter of refining capacity. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.2 percent to $46.65 a barrel. Copper gained 0.3 percent to $6,807.50 per metric ton, the highest in almost three years. Gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,318.20 an ounce, the biggest fall in more than a week. In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 2.12 percent. Germany’s 10-year yield gained one basis point to 0.37 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield increased less than one basis point to 1.034 percent. Japan’s 10-year yield dropped one basis point to -0.001%. Friday's econ data include August employment and jobless rate, Markit manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing as well as July construction spending and August auto sales. The second round of negotiations for The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) begins in Mexico City Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk European equities kick-off the month on the front-foot as participants await today’s US jobs report FX markets remain tentative ahead of NFP, while energy markets pull-back modestly from yesterday’s gains Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, ISM Manufacturing and Baker Hughes Market Snapshot: S&P 500 futures up 0.07% to 2,471.75 VIX down 1.8%, or -0.21 to 10.38 STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 375.52 MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 161.18 MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.2% to 533.64 Nikkei up 0.2% to 19,691.47 Topix up 0.1% to 1,619.59 Hang Seng Index down 0.06% to 27,953.16 Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,367.12 Sensex up 0.5% to 31,880.62 Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,724.59 Kospi down 0.2% to 2,357.69 German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.359% Euro down 0.1% to $1.1897 Italian 10Y yield fell 3.3 bps to 1.753% Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 1.55% Brent Futures little-changed at $52.42/bbl Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,319.51 U.S. Dollar Index up 0.05% to 92.72 Top Overnight News: Trump Is Said to Weigh Tying Debt Limit Increase to Harvey Aid CEOs Urge Trump to Keep ‘Dreamers’ Program for Immigrants Trump Cuts to Obamacare’s Ads Threaten Law’s Fragile Markets World’s Most Important Chemical Made Rare Commodity by Harvey Boeing Tanker Fuel Hose Scraping Jets Raises Air Force Alarms Billionaire Birla Is Said to Weigh Constellium, Aleris Bids Lululemon FY Adj EPS View Beats Highest Est. PANW 1Q Rev. View Midpoint Beats Est.; Shares Rise 3.1% Russia’s Power Machines Vies With GE for Hungary Contract: RIA Macau Aug. Casino Rev. Rises 20.4% Y/y; Est. 18.5% Rise Coca-Cola Eyes Number Three Spot for India Globally, TOI Says Google Wins Approval of Email Privacy Class Action Settlement Former Goldman Compliance Chief to Advise SEC’s Clayton on MiFID Amazon Is Said to Plan Canada Prime Now Launch This Year: WSJ Southwest Air Rushes to Ensure Fuel Supply Amid Storm Damage Asia stocks traded mostly positive after the upbeat tone from Wall St where the Nasdaq printed a fresh record close and sentiment was lifted amid tax reform hopes amid comments from US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. Furthermore, the region also welcomed strong Chinese Caixin PMI data, although gains were mild amid the looming key-risk NFP release. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) were both supported at the open, but then pared some gains as the financial sector dragged alongside declining yields. Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) and Hang Seng (flat) initially traded positive (Hang Seng pare dgains heading into the close) despite a net weekly liquidity drain by the PBoC, as participants cheered better than expected Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI which printed a 6-month high and showed New Orders and Exports components advanced at the fastest pace in multiple years. 10yr JGBs were mildly higher amid a decline in Asia-Pac yields and with the BoJ also present in the market for an amount just shy of JPY 1tln in JGB with maturities ranging up to 10yrs. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 51.6 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.1). (Newswires) New orders sub-index rose by fastest pace in more than 3 years and exports rose at the fastest pace in 7 years. PBoC skipped open markets operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 280bln vs. last week's CNY 330bln drain. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5909 (Prev. 6.6010). Top Asian News Modi to Revamp Cabinet to Revive Economy Before Key India Polls Tencent Music Is Said to Seek Pre-IPO Funds at $10 Billion Value Chinese Billionaire Plots Rescue of a Great British Carmaker Caixin China Aug. Manufacturing PMI 51.6; Est. 51 Rupee Resilience After India GDP Miss ‘Surprising’: StanChart China Steel Futures Surge to Record as Plant Fire Fuels Gains European stocks up for September's first trading day after three consecutive months of losses. CAC 40 boosted by Vivendi shares which confirmed its outlook for the year and stated that its struggling Canal Plus pay TV was showing signs of improvement. Volvo shares also tracking higher after setting new financial targets. ECB's Constancio says Euro Area recovery becoming increasingly robust. ECB's Nowotny says that as long as inflation is low, he does not see the need for higher interest rates. Quiet trading overall with Bunds holding a relatively narrow range this morning. Peripherals performing better relative to core debt with the German-Portuguese spread tightening by some 2.7bps, Italy also narrower by circa 1.5bps. Top European News Stalled Brexit Talks Pile Pressure on May to Negotiate Deal U.K. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Accelerates to Four-Month High Ruble Defies August Curse, Sanctions for Monthly Gain: Chart Gemalto Slides; Bryan Garnier Sees Potential for Another Warning Europe Miners Gain; Steel Stocks Remain Volatile: Deutsche Bank Sophos Gains After Palo Alto Said Demand Environment ‘Solid’ ECB’s Nowotny Says Japan Shows EU Must Move Fast to Repair Banks In currencies, the EUR is marginally weaker this morning, largely following from yesterday’s ECB source reports over EUR appreciation, alongside the mild uptick in the greenback. The theme for EUR as we head towards the ECB meeting may well be on speculation that Draghi and Co. may highlight risks to the appreciating currency. As such, EUR could possibly be pressured ahead of the monetary policy decision. Today, there are chunky expiries that may magnetise price action with 2.6bln worth of vanilla options from 1.1870-1.1900. The US Dollar is slightly firmer this morning, ahead of the US job numbers (Exp. 180k), also as tensions between North Korea and the US has seemingly eased off since the beginning of the week. In turn, this has seen USD/JPY break back above 110.00 amid the slight improvement in risk sentiment. Cable received a small uptick from better than expected UK Mfg. PMI which also showed an upward revision. However, sentiment remains bearish for the currency with Brexit talks showing little signs of progress. In commodities, it is the same story for crude prices, with flooding at US refineries after Hurricane Harvey continuing to weigh on prices. Looking at the day ahead, the final August PMIs for Germany, Eurozone, UK, France and Italy are due this morning. In the US, the highlight is the employment report for August. The August ISM manufacturing print (56.4 expected) is also worth keeping an eye while the July construction spending and University of Michigan confidence isurvey is also due. Away from the data, ECB governing council member Nowotny joins a panel discussion and ECB VP Constancio will speak. Elsewhere, the second round of NAFTA negotiations begins in Mexico City. US event calendar 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 180,000, prior 209,000 Unemployment Rate, est. 4.3%, prior 4.3%; Underemployment Rate, prior 8.6% Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.5% Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5; Labor Force Participation Rate, prior 62.9% 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 52.5, prior 52.5 ISM Manufacturing, est. 56.5, prior 56.3 ISM Prices Paid, est. 62, prior 62 ISM New Orders, est. 60, prior 60.4 ISM Employment, prior 55.2 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97.5, prior 97.6; Current Conditions, est. 110.9, prior 111 10am: U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%; 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.5% 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -1.3% Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 16.6m, prior 16.7m; Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 12.9m, prior 13m DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap Well August has flown by in a hurry. It wasn’t quite the typical quiet final month of summer that we might have expected with the headlines out of Washington – namely the debt ceiling debate but also signs of  further friction in Trump’s inner circle – and North Korea being enough to keep markets on their toes. In the end though markets are heading into September on the front foot helped in part by some upbeat macro data in the last few days. A slight upside surprise in the July CPI data for the Eurozone yesterday continued the positive momentum, while inflation data in the US later in the afternoon, while far from spectacular, at least came in in-line with market expectations. More details on that later. As you’ll see in the day ahead at the end we’re ending the week today with a bit of a bang too. As always payrolls will likely be front and centre. For what it’s worth the market consensus is running at 180k for August following a 209k print in July. Following the decent ADP print on Wednesday (237k vs. 185k expected) our US economists revised up their payrolls estimate to 200k from 185k. They note that the details in the ADP suggest that the Amazon hiring spree proved an upside risk and as such that was the basis for their change in forecast. All that said we have been arguing that inflation and the debt ceiling have arguably taken over as the bigger issues for the Fed outlook right now so while not completely dampening down the importance of payrolls, it feels like the data is not quite as significant as it once was in the past. With that it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the associated wages data in the employment report (+0.2% mom and +2.6% yoy consensus). Later on we’ll also get the August ISMs while this morning we’ll get the final PMI revisions in Europe. So plenty to get through. As noted at the top, risk assets generally had a pretty decent final day of August. The S&P 500 closed +0.57% last night and with that took its run of consecutive daily gains to 5 days and the longest streak since the 7-day run in May. That came after the Stoxx 600 had closed +0.77% which means the index has rallied +1.47% in the last two sessions and the most in a month and a half. That move was once again partly helped by an early fall for the Euro which touched the lowest level since Friday, but then reversed and closed +0.22% higher for the day. The early driver appeared to be a Reuters report suggesting that the recent appreciation in the single currency was concerning a growing number of ECB policymakers, which in turn was building the pressure for a more gentle reduction in the pace of QE. Late in the afternoon the reversal came after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said “having a weaker USD is somewhat better for us (as it relates to trade)”. Following on, he also said that the additional spending needed to help Texas may reduce the amount of time Congress have to increase the debt ceiling limit by “a couple of days”. This ties in with reports that Trump is considering attaching an increase in the US debt limit to an initial request to  Congress for disaster relief funding of $6bn for Hurricane Harvey. Sterling was also a notable mover intraday, but like the Euro also ended slightly up (+0.04%) for the day at 1.2930 after the USD weakened. All the talk yesterday was about more signs of Brexit talks failing to progress with the EU saying the UK has not outlined its position clearly, while the UK hit back by saying that the EU is not being flexible. It appears that the key sticking point is agreeing on the UK’s financial settlement. There is no confirmed figure but the European Commission’s Juncker had suggested before it could be 60bn Euros after factoring in budget commitments, pensions and pledge contingencies. A recent poll by ICM showed 65% of British tax payers believed 20bn was already too much. Jumping over to Asia now where the Caixin manufacturing PMI for China in August was slightly stronger than expected at 51.6 (vs. 51.0 expected) and up from 51.1 in July. This confirms the manufacturing PMI earlier this week. While we’re with China, it’s worth noting a date in your diaries as later in the year on 18th October, 2,300 delegates will meet in Beijing for the 19th Communist Party Congress meeting where the focus will be on potential changes to leadership posts and a party report that will set out the key government policy for the next five years. This morning markets are for the most part flat to modestly firmer. The Hang Seng (+0.31%), Shanghai Comp (+0.58%) and ASX (+0.15%) are all up while the Kospi and Nikkei are flat. Moving onto yesterday’s macro data. With regards to that inflation data in the US, while the July core PCE was in line at +0.1% mom and +1.4% yoy, the annual rate is now the lowest since December 2015 and well below the Fed’s target of 2%. Elsewhere, the personal income data was solid. Personal income grew faster than expected at +0.4% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) but personal spending missed slightly at +0.3% mom (vs. +0.4% expected). Elsewhere initial jobless claims remained low at 236k and continuing claims at 1,942k. Meanwhile the Chicago PMI was higher than expected at 58.9 (vs. 58.5 expected) although flat versus last month, while pending home sales disappointed with a -0.8% mom decline (vs. +0.3% expected). Over in Europe, the Eurozone’s headline inflation was a tad higher, driven by energy costs, but core inflation was in line at +1.2% yoy, which is above the lows of recent years but unlikely to be enough to prompt  the ECB to alter course. Elsewhere, the inflation print for France was in line at +0.6% mom while Italy’s inflation was slightly higher than expected at +0.1% mom (vs. 0.0% expected). Elsewhere the unemployment rate for the Eurozone was in line at 9.1% yoy. Finally, Germany’s July retail sales remained volatile and was slightly lower than expected at -1.2% mom (vs. -0.6% expected). Looking at the day ahead, the final August PMIs for Germany, Eurozone, UK, France and Italy are due this morning. In the US, needless to say the highlight is the aforementioned employment report for August. The August ISM manufacturing print (56.4 expected) is also worth keeping an eye while the July construction spending and University of Michigan confidence isurvey is also due. Away from the data, ECB governing council member Nowotny joins a panel discussion and ECB VP Constancio will speak. Elsewhere, the second round of NAFTA negotiations begins in Mexico City.

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21 августа, 15:21

Fiat Chrysler Shares Soar After China's Great Wall Confirms Interest

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Last week AutomotiveNews reported rumors that at least one Chinese automaker had made a bid for Fiat Chrysler (FCA) at a slight premium to the company's prevailing market price though it was reported rejected.  While it's unclear whether an official bid was made, this morning Reuters is confirming that China's Great Wall Motor Company has expressed interest in acquiring FCA, sending the company's shares to a new 52-week high. China's Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is interested in bidding for Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA), a company official said on Monday, confirming reports it is pursuing all or part of the owner of the Jeep and Ram truck brands.   "With respect to this case, we currently have an intention to acquire. We are interested in (FCA)," an official at Great Wall Motor's press relations department told Reuters by phone. He declined to give his name and gave no further details.   In a statement, Fiat Chrysler said it had not been approached by Great Wall Motor, and was busy with implementing its current five-year business plan.   The industry publication cited a Great Wall spokesman confirming interest, but saying the Chinese automaker had not made a formal offer or met with FCA's board.   Not surprisingly, FCA's iconic Jeep brand, which Morgan Stanley figures is worth about 150% of FCA's overall market value all by itself, is the crown jewel the Great Wall covets. "Our strategic goal is to become the world's largest SUV maker," Automotive News quoted the spokesman as saying. "Acquiring Jeep, a global SUV brand, would enable us to achieve our goal sooner and better (than on our own)."   "Jeep is the most logical choice since (Great Wall) wants to be the largest SUV maker in the world," said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based consultancy Automotive Foresight.   Ram could be an option, but "the Jeep brand is recognized globally. I think Great Wall Motor is eyeing a global strategy, not just the United States," Zhang added.   Jeep, which traces its roots to the iconic World War Two military vehicle, targets sales of 2 million vehicles in 2018, up from 1.4 million in 2016. Marchionne has said deliveries from the SUV brand could eventually rise to as many as 7 million a year as demand for sporty vehicles is set to keep rising.   In a recent note, Morgan Stanley estimated Jeep's enterprise value at 23 billion euros ($27 billion) - nearly 150 percent of the whole of FCA's market value. Meanwhile, with a market value of almost $20 billion, an acquisition of FCA would be by far China's largest overseas automotive industry deal - and possibly one of its largest ever overseas purchases - dwarfing Geely's 2010 billion acquisition of Volvo cars.  And, of course, FCA shareholders are applauding the interest in pre-market trading.   Interest from China comes amid a push by the government to acquire international assets in order to gain further access to markets outside China. A government directive dubbed China Outbound pushes Chinese businesses to acquire international assets from their industries and operate them "to make their mark," much as Geely has done since acquiring Volvo in 2010. Bloomberg reported last week that Chinese companies plan to spend $1.5 trillion acquiring overseas companies over the next decade — a 70 percent increase from current levels.   "Right now, Chinese automakers enjoy the full support of the leadership in Beijing to go and make it happen," Dunne said. "That's something brand new, and it's really picked up since 2015."   Along with Volvo, Dunne pointed to Italian tire maker Pirelli and German robotics giant Kuka as Chinese acquisitions supported by the China Outbound policy. Of course, given Trump's focus on domestic auto production and intellectual property violations by China, something tells us this particular deal will be somewhat 'complicated' politically.

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14 августа, 16:15

Several Chinese Companies Reportedly Submit Bids For Fiat Chrysler

After learning over the weekend that Trump plans to call for an investigation into China over allegations that the nation violated U.S. intellectual property rights and forced technology transfers, we learn that several Chinese companies may have submitted bids for Fiat Chrysler (FCA) in a deal that would include the company's iconic Jeep brand.  According to AutomotiveNews, at least one Chinese automaker made a bid earlier this month for FCA at a slight premium to the company's prevailing market price but it was rejected for being too low. Representatives of a well-known Chinese automaker made at least one offer this month to buy Fiat Chrysler Automobiles at a small premium over its market value, Automotive News has learned. The offer was rejected for not being enough, a source said.   Meanwhile, other sources independently identified executives from other large Chinese automakers conducting their own due diligence on a potential purchase of FCA, including meeting last week with representatives of U.S. retail groups about a potential acquisition. A source said FCA executives have traveled to China to meet with Great Wall Motor Co. And Chinese delegations were seen last week at FCA's headquarters in Auburn Hills, Mich.   It's unclear which Chinese automaker or automakers are pursuing FCA. Different sources have pointed to involvement by different ones — Dongfeng Motor Corp., Great Wall, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group or FCA's current joint venture partner in China, Guangzhou Automobile Group. But it is also unclear which company or companies are likely to follow through or succeed.   Unsurprisingly, FCA isn't talking, nor are any of the four Chinese automakers. But if a sale proceeds, the quintessentially American Jeep brand — once owned by the Germans and most recently by the Italians/Dutch — may soon be owned by the Chinese.   According to AutoNews, any sale likely would involve FCA's highly profitable Jeep and Ram brands, as well as Chrysler, Dodge and Fiat, but would exclude Maserati and Alfa Romeo which would be spun off. Interest from China comes amid a push by the government to acquire international assets in order to gain further access to markets outside China. A government directive dubbed China Outbound pushes Chinese businesses to acquire international assets from their industries and operate them "to make their mark," much as Geely has done since acquiring Volvo in 2010. Bloomberg reported last week that Chinese companies plan to spend $1.5 trillion acquiring overseas companies over the next decade — a 70 percent increase from current levels.   "Right now, Chinese automakers enjoy the full support of the leadership in Beijing to go and make it happen," Dunne said. "That's something brand new, and it's really picked up since 2015."   Along with Volvo, Dunne pointed to Italian tire maker Pirelli and German robotics giant Kuka as Chinese acquisitions supported by the China Outbound policy. Of course, given Trump's focus on domestic auto production and intellectual property violations by China, something tells us this particular deal will be somewhat 'complicated' politically.  That said, FCAU shareholders seem to be somewhat optimistic this morning...

13 марта, 00:00

Женева-2017

Самые громкие премьеры Женевского автосалона. Серийные новинки: Alpine A110, Italdesign Zerouno, Lamborghini Huracan Performante, Mitsubishi Eclipse Sport, McLaren 720S, Range Rover Velar, Subaru XV, Volkswagen Arteon и Volvo XC60. Концепты: Airbus Pop.Up, Hyundai FE Fuel Cell, Mercedes-AMG GT и Volkswagen Sedric

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25 августа 2016, 08:37

В Сингапуре запустили беспилотное такси. Бесплатно

Сингапурская компания nuTonomy запустила первое беспилотное такси, при этом сервис впервые в мире предоставляется бесплатно.

28 сентября 2015, 11:30

Скандал с Volkswagen и его последствия

СМИ продолжают обсуждать разразившийся неделю назад скандал вокруг автомобильного концерна Volkswagen, в результате которого его акции упали на треть. Контролирующие службы США обнаружили, что производитель встраивал в автомобили с дизельным двигателем программное обеспечение, которое выдавало заниженные показатели по выбросам оксидов азота (NOx). Комментаторы пытаются проанализировать эту историю и предположить, как она скажется на дальнейшем развитии автомобильного производства. Скандалу предшествовала долгая история с расследованиями и опровержениями, рассказывает NY Times. А у этой истории, в свою очередь, были прецеденты. Когда в 1970-е гг. в США ужесточили требования по выбросам вредных веществ, некоторые производители начали адаптироваться к новым рыночным условиям путем фальсификаций. Volkswagen был первой из компаний, которые на этом поймали. Тогда его оштрафовали на $120 000.   Фото: stern.de Нынешняя история началась в 2013 г., когда одна американская некоммерческая организация решила проверить машины с дизельными двигателями на выбросы. Цели уличить Volkswagen в обмане не было. Наоборот, организация хотела собрать примеры эффективно работающих дизельных двигателей в США, чтобы потом этими данными можно было колоть глаза европейским экологам, у которых традиционно более низкие, чем в США, стандарты по выбросам NOx. Тогда впервые были замечены странные расхождения между показателями лабораторных и дорожных проверок. В лабораторных условиях, когда машина никуда не едет, показатели соответствовали стандартам. На дороге выбросы превышали допустимый объем в 10-40 раз. В 2014 г. власти Калифорнии сообщили о странностях Агентству по охране окружающей среды (EPA) и начали расследование. Volkswagen в ответ на претензии ссылался на возможные сбои показателей из-за  погодных условий, стиля вождения и прочих трудноконтролируемых факторов. Так продолжалось до сентября 2015 г., когда корпорации пригрозили отозвать сертификат на продажу подозрительных машин, и группа старших инженеров VW рассказала о том, что в дизельных автомобилях действительно устанавливали фальсфицирующий софт, позволявший им формально соответствовать требованиям американского рынка, где к тому моменту уже было продано почти полмиллиона таких автомобилей. Всего на мировом рынке этих машин порядка 11 млн. Wall Street Journal пишет об этой истории с большой осторожностью и пытается посмотреть на нее в более широком контексте. Конечно, если обвинения, выдвинутые американскими агентствами против VW справедливы, то производитель поплатился своей репутацией за дело. Тем не менее, остается множество вопросов, и их число по мере поступления новостей только растет. Например, непонятно, кто решил устанавливать этот софт и чем при этом руководствовался. Неизвестно, знало ли об этом руководство компании. Также можно задаться вопросом о том, есть ли у этих приборов иное назначение, помимо того, чтобы обойти американские требования по выбросам. Пока эти детали неизвестны, а картина в основном формируется на основе официальных правительственных отчетов. Устройства, которые фальсифицируют показатели, комментирует WSJ, - это отнюдь не новое изобретение, и пользуются им не только немцы. Более того, устройства, деактивирующие контроль над выбросами, в принципе могут использоваться в легальных целях (правда, в таких случаях производитель должен предупреждать о таких устройствах и сообщать, какие поправки нужно вносить в подсчеты). В 1995 г. штраф в размере $45 млн. за нелегальную установку таких устройств заплатил General Motors. В 1998 г. оштрафовали еще семь американских производителей, в том числе Volvo и Caterpillar. Обычно в таких случаях государственные службы пишут о выявлении фальсификации, но не пишут о том, какова первичная роль этих устройств в машинах. Между тем, эксперты утверждают, что их главная задача в том, чтобы оптимизировать сжигание топлива и действительно сократить объемы вредных выбросов – прежде всего, углекислого газа. Но двигатели, которые проектируются с расчетом на сокращение выбросов углекислого газа, обычно выбрасывают больше NOx. И да, возможный побочный эффект работы такого устройства – это неверное указание выбросов NOx. Американские экологические агентства предпочитают выражать праведное негодование, вместо того чтобы проанализировать свои собственные требования. Безусловно, заключает автор, VW«должен заплатить за все случаи преднамеренного введения в заблуждение, но остальные производители и вся страна должны знать, что на самом деле представляет собой эта история: великий обман, который подозревает EPA, или вариант известного побочного эффекта, за который просто впервые начали сурово преследовать». Подробный комментарий дает The Economist. По мнению автора, масштабы события таковы, оно может заметно повлиять на всю отрасль. В частности, это касается производства дизельных двигателей, которые как раз начали набирать популярность. Они эффективно и, соответственно, более экономично расходуют топливо, а также позволяют сократить объемы выброса углекислого газа. За счет этого они стали популярны в Европе, где много внимания уделяется именно этому показателю. Недостаток в том, что при этом они выбрасывают больше NOx, и сократить этот показатель труднее и дороже. NOx, в отличие от углекислого газа, практически не сказываются на процессе глобального потепления. Но они серьезно вредят местной флоре и создают смог. В итоге получилось так, что в США больше ограничений по выбросам NOx, а в ЕС – по выбросам углекислого газа. Таким образом, европейским стандартам VW условно соответствовал. Увеличение его доли на рынке в США было, прежде всего, обусловлено тем, что он убедил государство и потребителей в том, что дизельные двигатели тоже могут быть экологичными. После того как вскрылась фальсификация, в производстве дизельных двигателей могут начаться проблемы.   Фото: irishtimes.com Возникает вопрос, продолжает автор, почему VW в принципе пошел на такой риск. Можно предположить, что отчасти сыграла роль конкуренция с Toyota. Для того чтобы обогнать ее, требовалось значительно увеличить долю на рынке США. В принципе можно было бы устранить проблему, действительно сократив выбросы. Но это было бы дороже, плюс могло бы привести к сокращению мощности и снижению эффективности расхода топлива, что, в свою очередь, ослабило бы конкурентоспособность. Проще было отключить регистрацию ненужных показателей в лабораторных условиях. Очевидно, в VW были люди, которые считали, что эта махинация может пройти незамеченной. И, по всей видимости, у них на то были основания. Как минимум, это то, что такой трюк далеко не оригинален в автомобильной индустрии. Многие производители не дотягивают по сокращению объемов выброса NOx даже до сравнительно низких европейских стандартов, и это сходит им с рук, несмотря на протесты со стороны экологов. Отчасти это связано с тем, что в большинстве случаев европейское тестирующее оборудование устарело, и его изъянами можно пользоваться. Отчасти – с тем, что экспертизу обычно проводят «независимые» коммерческие компании, которые находятся друг с другом в отношениях конкуренции и стараются дружить с производителями автомобилей. Кроме того, в Европе обычно машины проверяют до того, как они выходят на рынок, а после ими уже никакие контролирующие инстанции не занимается. В США, по большому счету, тоже так, но есть еще EPA, которое время от времени устраивает случайные проверки продаваемым на рынке автомобилям. Скорее всего, случай с VW приведет к тому, что теперь автомобили будут тестировать более внимательно. Вполне может оказаться так, что и многие другие производители используют аналогичные способы фальсификации показателей. Это может привести к тому, что компаниям вообще придется отказаться от использования дизельных двигателей для массового автомобильного производства и придется искать другие способы, чтобы создавать не слишком дорогие автомобили, соответствующие при этом запросам покупателей. Это, в свою очередь, потребует больших вложений. Вся история с VW пришлась на тот момент, когда некоторые крупные корпорации, не имевшие прежде отношения к этой отрасли, начали задумываться о том, чтобы попробовать себя в автомобилестроении – как, например, Google и Apple. Это, считает автор, усилит конкуренцию и, вероятно, приведет к большим слияниям, которые изменят отрасль, перераспределив ее участников.