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Всемирная метеорологическая организация
26 октября, 19:37

China Can Slash Energy Use and Emissions at Net Economic Benefit

By Jon Creyts and Jules Kortenhorst, Rocky Mountain Institute In September, set among Hangzhou's ancient gardens and shimmering new buildings, China and the U.S. announced that they were formally joining the Paris agreement to combat climate change. It was the latest demonstration of joint leadership by the two countries on global climate and environmental issues. This week the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) informed us that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere had surged past an important threshold. "The 400 parts per million benchmark was broken globally for the first time in recorded history in 2015. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2016 will likely be the first full year to exceed the mark." For China to meet its climate targets--especially peaking carbon emissions by 2030--it must aggressively transition away from an economy built on fossil fuels. Back in June 2014, President Xi Jinping called for "a revolution in the production and consumption of energy." And a revolution is needed. The country holds too many undesirable titles in a world recently committed to leaning its fossil fuel diet: the world's largest carbon emitter, largest coal consumer, and largest net importer of oil. But the call for a revolution comes at a challenging moment for China; between 2010 and 2030, China will need to reduce its emissions, transition nearly an entire U.S. population from rural to urban living, and grow its economy several times over, in accordance with its planning goals. Re-Inventing Fire in China Back in 2011, Rocky Mountain Institute published a roadmap for the U.S. to kick its dependence on fossil fuels by 2050, entitled Reinventing Fire. In 2013, we started on similar research for China by partnering with three leading organizations: the Energy Research Institute of China's National Development and Reform Commission (ERI), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), and Energy Foundation China (EF China). Key Findings Reinventing Fire: China answers President Xi's call with detailed, scientific research that supports a revolutionary pathway toward a sustainable, clean energy system. This groundbreaking publication--the result of an unprecedented cross-Pacific collaboration--demonstrates how China can reduce its carbon emissions by 42 percent below 2010 levels by 2050 and grow its economy 600 percent while saving a net $3.1 trillion over the investments required. Three years of research by 50 scientists lay out a pathway in which: 1) China can peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2025. China is the world's largest carbon emitter. Yet per capita carbon emissions remain low compared with more developed economies, such as the U.S. This means that as China's economy grows, carbon emissions could follow. Peaking China's carbon emissions is vital to combat climate change. In Reinventing Fire: China, we show a pathway for China to decouple economic growth from carbon emissions. China can peak emissions 11 years earlier and 30 percent lower than the reference scenario. To do so, China must take advantage of cost-effective and commercially available technology (Reinventing Fire: China does not include far-fetched ideas or immature technologies; in fact, we only considered technologies that make commercial sense today). 2) China can decouple its economic growth from intense energy use. As China's economy grew by leaps and bounds over the past 35 years, so did its energy use. Averting similar future energy growth is a prerequisite to peaking carbon emissions and putting the country on a low-carbon pathway. Although the country has vast coal resources, it is a net importer of oil and natural gas. Burning dirty fuels not only pollutes China's air and water, relying on imports of these fuels is a national security risk. Reinventing Fire: China lays a path for China to use the same amount of energy in 2050 as it did in 2010, while still growing its economy six times and providing a better standard of living for its people. This is accomplished by reducing end-use demand in the three main sectors of the economy--industry, buildings, and transportation--and using smart growth strategies as the country becomes wealthier and continues to urbanize. 3) China can significantly increase use of non-fossil energy. Stemming the growth of energy use is just the first step. The next step is to dramatically increase the use of non-fossil energy resources. Replacing fossil-based energy with clean alternatives, such as wind, solar, and hydropower, shifts China's electric grid from being over three-fourths fossil generation in 2010 to being 82 percent non-emitting by 2050. As the electric grid is powered more by clean energy, it also makes more sense for China to electrify its economy as an accelerant to decarbonization. For example, a cleaner grid means electric vehicles powered off it would be fueled by the wind and sun rather than gasoline, making it easier for China to achieve its peaking goals. Beyond these energy benefits, this shift has numerous additional, tangible effects that are not valued in our analysis but are worth mentioning: Specifically, we did not put an economic value on the positive impacts to public health or the environment. 4) China can dramatically reduce its coal consumption. In 2050, with the same energy demand as 2010 but substantially more non-fossil energy use, China can largely abandon the coal that plagues its cities, rivers, and skies. Though the country has an abundance of the fuel, the continued use of coal puts the entire world in jeopardy. By fuel switching--the process of replacing dirty fuels with cleaner sources--China can use 60 percent less coal in 2050 than it did in 2010. As the largest single user of coal, any cuts China makes in coal use have a substantial impact on global emissions. Similarly, oil demand, which grew by double digits over the past few decades, is 22 percent lower in 2050 than in 2010 and natural gas demand is 61 percent lower. 5) China's transition to low-carbon development is a net benefit to the economy. The results laid out above would be unattainable if they weren't practical, driven by today's commercially available technology, and economic. In fact, the results of the Reinventing Fire: China pathway are a boost for the economy, providing a net savings of 21 trillion RMB ($3.1 trillion) between 2010 and 2050. But the Reinventing Fire: China pathway is not the business-as-usual scenario; it requires upfront investment of 35 trillion RMB ($5.2 trillion), which in turn, yields savings of 56 trillion RMB ($8.3 trillion). As a result of the announcements by China, the U.S., and others, a renewed optimism that the world can unite to fight climate change prevails. But, as President Xi declared at the summit, we all must move from talk to action. Reinventing Fire: China provides a practical roadmap with steps China can take to tackle climate change while simultaneously spurring economic growth. It shows how efficiency paired with renewables is a compelling path to start on today--a path worth following not just for China, but for every country committed to achieving the Paris vision and possessing a Hangzhou-style readiness for action. Download the Reinventing Fire: China Executive Summary, the most sophisticated model of China's energy use to date and a roadmap to slash carbon emissions and energy use by 2050, all at a net economic benefit. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

26 октября, 14:05

Все течения Мирового океана могут изменить направление

Ученые из Института океанологии РАН создали компьютерную модель мирового океана и раскрыли с ее помощью аномалии в переносе тепла Северо-Атлантическим течением, влияющим на погоду в России зимой, говорится в статье, опубликованной в журнале «Океанология», передает пресс-служба Российского научного фонда.

26 октября, 00:20

The Planet Just Crossed Another Major Carbon Milestone

Last year’s average carbon dioxide concentration crossed a major milestone and will likely stay at or above that level for several generations, the World Meteorological Organization announced Monday. In 2015, average global CO2 levels for the year surpassed 400 parts per million for the first time, the WMO revealed in its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Many scientists regard that measurement, which indicates the ratio of carbon dioxide to other gases in the atmosphere, as a climate change touchstone ― though it’s not considered a tipping point.  And the uptick is happening at an alarming rate. “The increase of CO2 from 2014 to 2015 was larger than that observed from 2013 to 2014 and that averaged over the past 10 years,” the report noted. function onPlayerReadyVidible(e){'undefined'!=typeof HPTrack&&HPTrack.Vid.Vidible_track(e)}!function(e,i){if(e.vdb_Player){if('object'==typeof commercial_video){var a='',o='m.fwsitesection='+commercial_video.site_and_category;if(a+=o,commercial_video['package']){var c='&m.fwkeyvalues=sponsorship%3D'+commercial_video['package'];a+=c}e.setAttribute('vdb_params',a)}i(e.vdb_Player)}else{var t=arguments.callee;setTimeout(function(){t(e,i)},0)}}(document.getElementById('vidible_1'),onPlayerReadyVidible); CO2 concentrations last year were about 144 percent higher than pre-industrial levels. Other emissions measured in the report, methane and nitrous oxide, were up 256 percent and 121 percent from pre-industrial levels, respectively. Among those, however, CO2 contributes the most to warming and is responsible for about 81 percent of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade. The increase was in part fueled by last winter’s El Niño event, which contributed to droughts that reduce the ability of forests and other carbon sinks to absorb excess CO2, but the bulk of the increase is due to unbridled human activities ranging from “growing population, intensified agricultural practices, increase in land use and deforestation, industrialization and associated energy use from fossil sources,” the report noted. “The year 2015 ushered in a new era of optimism and climate action with the Paris climate change agreement. But it will also make history as marking a new era of climate change reality with record high greenhouse gas concentrations,” WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said with the release of the report. “The El Niño event has disappeared. Climate change has not.” Lowering CO2 emissions, which stay in the atmosphere and oceans for thousands of years, is crucial to keeping global temperatures from crossing the 2 degrees Celsius threshold, the amount of warming that climate experts indicate as the “point of no return.”  The report follows recent findings that CO2 concentrations last month remained above 400 ppm for the entire month of September, when levels are usually at their lowest following months of spring and summer plant growth absorbing emissions.  “[I]t already seems safe to conclude that we won’t be seeing a monthly value below 400 ppm this year ― or ever again for the indefinite future,” scientist Ralph Keeling, who runs the Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s carbon dioxide monitoring program, wrote in a blog post following the September findings. The WMO’s report comes at a crucial time; next month, world leaders will meet in Marrakech, Morocco, for the United Nations climate change negotiations.  -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.

25 октября, 15:58

Ученые заявили о «новой эре» в процессе изменения климата

Ученые заявили о том, что уровень содержания СО2 в атмосфере преодолел важную отметку и обозначил тем самым «новую эру» в процессах изменения климата. Об этом сообщает ZN.UA со ссылкой на ВВС. Снижение уровня углекислого газа […]

25 октября, 15:31

Carbon dioxide levels reach a new peak

The World Meteorological Organization announces an alarming new milestone.

25 октября, 11:46

Ученые заявили о "новой эре" в процессе изменения климата

Содержание углекислого газа в атмосфере преодолело важную отметку и не будет снижаться на протяжении "многих поколений".

25 октября, 08:12

Уровень СО2 в атмосфере бьет в 2016-ом все рекорды

Показатели концентрации углекислого газа в атмосфере Земли бьют в 2016 году все рекорды. В заявлении Всемирной метеорологической организации говорится, что это произошло на фоне мощного природного явления Эль-Ниньо - тёплого сезонного течения поверхностных вод пониженной солёности в Тихом океане. Температура воды при этом повышается на 10-12 градусов. Эксперты напоминают, что уровень СО2 и ранее достигал отметки в 400 ppm (400 долей на миллион). Однако никогда еще этот уровень не держался в… ЧИТАТЬ ДАЛЕЕ: http://ru.euronews.com/2016/10/24/co2-emissions-in-earth-s-atmosphere-hit-important-threshold euronews: самый популярный новостной канал в Европе. Подписывайтесь! http://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=euronewsru euronews доступен на 13 языках: https://www.youtube.com/user/euronewsnetwork/channels На русском: Сайт: http://ru.euronews.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/euronews Twitter: http://twitter.com/euronewsru Google+: https://plus.google.com/u/0/b/101036888397116664208/100240575545901894719/posts?pageId=101036888397116664208 VKontakte: http://vk.com/ru.euronews

24 октября, 19:01

Greenhouse gas level is new reality

Greenhouse gases rose to a symbolic milestone in 2015, taking climate change into a new phase which could last generations even if governments act to curb man-made global warming, the UN World Meteorological

24 октября, 18:55

Концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере достигла исторического максимума

Усредненная концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере Земли выросла до рекордной отметки в 2015-2016 годах, достигнув существенного значения в 400 частей на миллион, говорится в ежегодном Бюллетене Всемирной метеорологической организации (ВМО) по парниковым газам.

24 октября, 16:33

Концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере достигла беспрецедентного уровня - ВМО

Концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере Земли выросла в 2016 году до рекордных величин на фоне мощного природного явления Эль-Ниньо. Об этом заявила сегодня Всемирная метеорологическая организация (ВМО). Подробнее читайте на нашем сайте www.oilru.com

24 октября, 16:31

Концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере достигла исторического максимума

Усредненная концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере Земли выросла до рекордной отметки в 2015-2016 годах, достигнув существенного значения в 400 частей на миллион, говорится в ежегодном Бюллетене Всемирной метеорологической организации (ВМО) по парниковым газам. Согласно данным ВМО, уровни CO2 ранее достигали пороговой отметки в 400 частей на миллион в определенные месяцы года и в определенных точках планеты, однако никогда прежде этот уровень не наблюдался в глобальном среднем масштабе за целый год. По прогнозам станции мониторинга парниковых газов на Мауна-Лоа (Гавайи), концентрации CO2 останутся на уровне выше 400 частей на миллион в течение всего 2016 года, и не опустятся ниже этой отметки в течение жизни многих поколений, сообщает РИА «Новости». Причиной такого скачка СО2 метеорологи называют мощное явление Эль-Ниньо, которое послужило толчком для развития засух в тропических регионах и уменьшению способности лесов, растительности и океанов поглощать углекислый газ. Эти поглотители в настоящее время вбирают в себя примерно половину выбросов CO2, однако существует риск их насыщения, что приведет к увеличению доли выбрасываемой двуокиси углерода, которая остается в атмосфере. Помимо сокращения потенциала растительности поглощать CO2, Эль-Ниньо также привел к увеличению объема выбросов углекислого газа в результате лесных пожаров. Объем выбросов CO2 в экваториальной Азии, где в августе-сентябре 2015 года в Индонезии наблюдались масштабные лесные пожары, был более чем вдвое выше средних значений за 1997-2015 годы. «Без решения проблемы выбросов CO2 мы не сможем решить проблему изменения климата и удержать повышение температуры на уровне ниже 2 °С в сравнении со значениями доиндустриального периода. В этой связи крайне важно, чтобы Парижское соглашение действительно вступило в силу со значительным опережением графика 4 ноября, а также чтобы мы ускорили его осуществление»,– заявил генсек ВМО Петтери Таалас. На двуокись углерода приходится около 65% от общего объема радиационного воздействия долгоживущих парниковых газов. Уровень концентрации СО2 в доиндустриальный уровень составлял 278 частей на миллион. Рост среднегодовых концентраций CO2 в 2015 году составил 144 % от доиндустриальных уровней, достигнув отметки в 400 частей на миллион. Прирост CO2 с 2014 года по 2015 года был больше, чем в среднем за предыдущие 10 лет. Напомним, в августе Всемирный фонд дикой природы сообщал, что человечество использовало с начала года 100% возобновляемых ресурсов, которые Земля способна воспроизвести за год. По данным экологов, самой быстрорастущей составляющей «экологического долга» человечества являются выбросы углекислого газа. На них приходится 60% общего спроса человечества на возобновляемые биологические ресурсы, которые принято называть экологическим следом. В ноябре 2015 года президент Владимир Путин заявил, что усилия России позволили на год затормозить потепление на Земле. «В атмосферу не попало около 40 млрд тонн эквивалента углекислого газа. Для сравнения скажу, что выбросы всех стран мира в 2012 году составили 46 млрд тонн. Можно сказать, что усилия России позволили затормозить глобальное потепление почти на год»,– заявил он.

24 октября, 16:15

Эль-Ниньо душит Землю

Количество углекислого газа в атмосфере Земли увеличилось в 2016 г. до рекордных величин в результате воздействия Эль-Ниньо. Об этом заявила Всемирная метеорологическая организация (ВМО). В бюллетене ВМО сказано, что концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере достигла значения в 400 частей на миллион впервые в 2015 г. и вновь резко возросла в 2016-м в результате воздействия Эль-Ниньо. Уровни СО2 в определенное время и

24 октября, 08:00

Концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере в 2015 году достигла рекордной отметки

Концентрация углекислого газа в атмосфере достигла в 2015 году рекордного уровня - 400 частиц на миллион. Если в предыдущие годы этот показатель был зарегистрирован только в отдельные месяцы, то в минувшем году средний глобальный уровень выбросов держался на отметке 400 частиц на миллион в течение всего года. Об этом сообщается в докладе Всемирной метеорологической организации.

20 октября, 10:17

В тропиках Тихого океана возможно развитие Ла-Нинья

С июня 2016 года температура поверхности воды в центре и на востоке тропической зоны Тихого океана приближалась и местами достигала критерия слабого Ла-Нинья. К началу июля аномалия ТПО приближалась к -0,5° и оставалась близкой к этому значению до начала октября, что близко к критерию слабого Ла-Нинья. Тем не менее ясной атмосферной составляющей этого явления до последних недель не наблюдалось. В начале октября пассаты над тропиками Тихого океана начали усиливаться, сигнализируя, что атмосферная циркуляция, соответствующая эпизоду Ла-Нинья, может развиться. По прогнозу ансамбля моделей и мнению экспертов с вероятностью 50-60 % слабый Ла-Нинья разовьется в последнем квартале 2016 года и просуществует в начале 2017 года.

17 октября, 13:27

10 самых жарких мест на Земле

Лето — долгожданная пора для большинства жителей Земли. Но есть такие места, где жара чересчур интенсивна, а дождя ждут как манны небесной

05 октября, 08:00

Парижское соглашение по климату вступит в законную силу 4 ноября этого года

Парижское соглашение по климату вступит в законную силу уже 4 ноября. Об этом сегодня объявил Генеральный секретарь ООН Пан Ги Мун. 5 октября к кругу его участников присоединились Канада, Боливия, Непал, Европейский союз и ряд стран ЕС. Накануне среди государств, ратифицировавших соглашение, появилась Новая Зеландия.

03 октября, 10:31

Чубайс: Российский бизнес осознал серьезность проблемы глобального потепления

Российский бизнес осознал серьезность проблемы глобального потепления, в то же время вопрос ратификации Россией Парижского соглашения ООН осложнился, выразил мнение председатель правления Роснано Анатолий Чубайс, который принимает участие в «Международном форуме науки и технологии в обществе» (STS) в Киото. «Россия это соглашение подписала, но еще не ратифицировала. Ситуация в этом смысле по политике сильно продвинулась вперед, но по реальностям российским она существенно осложнилась, потому что бизнес осознал, что это – тема серьезная, а не просто абстрактное обсуждение», – сообщил Чубайс в интервью ТАСС. По его словам, именно осознание того, что «государственное регулирование выбросов СО2 может закончиться какими-то элементами финансовой ответственности», создало противников ратификации этого документа. «Да, появились оппоненты. В Российском союзе промышленников и предпринимателей (РСПП) была очень сложная дискуссия, – рассказал Чубайс. – РСПП принял документ, с которым я не согласен – и был единственным проголосовавшим против этого документа». По словам Чубайса начинается серьезная дискуссия в бизнесе о том, как правильно действовать властям. «Правительство поручило разработать план действий по исполнению подписанных соглашений. Вот то, что попадет в этот план – и есть сейчас предмет обсуждения бизнеса и правительства», – подчеркнул председатель правления Роснано. В то же время Чубайс признал, что вопрос российской ратификации не будет носить такого исторического характера в отличие от Киотского протокола. «Потому что Киотский протокол вступил в силу именно благодаря ратификации России», – напомнил он. Но политик выразил уверенность, что борьба с глобальным потеплением – «благородная миссия для человечества». «Россия не должна быть в стороне от нее», – подчеркнул Чубайс. «Есть наивные представления, что для России глобальное потепление означает теплую зиму и более жаркое лето. Но последствия процесса такого масштаба – колоссальные, – подчеркнул Чубайс. – Мы это понимаем, когда слышим про смерч в Смоленске, наводнения в Приморье, град размером с яйцо на Кавказе или ледяной дождь в Подмосковье. Или вдруг на Ямале сибирская язва, которой там не было полвека». Развивая тему эпидемии сибирской язвы на Ямале, Чубайс объяснил причины ее возникновения. «Там было аномально теплое лето, при котором вечная мерзлота разморозилась на полтора метра – такого никогда не было, – пояснил он. – И вирус, пролежавший десятилетия у погибших от сибирской язвы оленей, вдруг оживает и приводит к возрождению этого страшного заболевания». Председатель правления Роснано подчеркнул всю серьезность этой проблемы, обратив внимание на то, что ее решением занимаются все – «от министра здравоохранения до министерства обороны». «Так что последствия глобального потепления огромны – начиная от подъема уровня мирового океана и кончая тяжелыми эпидемиями. Не видеть этого, забывать об этом, ждать, что само рассосется – наивно», – выразил уверенность Чубайс. Ранее директор Гидрометцентра России Роман Вильфанд сообщил, что лето 2016 года в северном полушарии оказалось самым жарким за всю историю. В ноябре прошлого года Всемирная метеорологическая организация (ВМО) заявляла, что 2015 год стал самым теплым за всю историю наблюдений, что связано с деятельностью человека, глобальным потеплением и усилением явления Эль-Ниньо. Отмечалось, что 2016 год может стать еще теплее. Однако перед этим председатель Тюменского научного центра СО РАН академик Владимир Мельников заявлял, что планета вступает в 30-летний холодный цикл. Напомним также, 22 апреля в ходе церемонии в штаб-квартире ООН в Нью-Йорке 175 стран подписали Парижское соглашение по борьбе с изменением климата. Россия также подписала Парижское соглашение по климату. Правительство России одобрило документ 14 апреля. Напомним, на парижской конференции ООН по климату 196 стран определили общую цель – сдержать повышение температуры на Земле в пределах 2 градусов к 2100 году от уровня доиндустриальной эпохи, а также приложить усилия по сдерживанию повышения температуры в пределах 1,5 градусов. Для выполнения взятых на себя обязательств по итогам Конференции ООН по климату в Париже Минприроды России утвержден план мероприятий по обеспечению к 2020 году сокращения объема выбросов парниковых газов. Он предусматривает введение отчетности хозяйствующими субъектами по объемам выбросов парниковых газов, что явится предпосылкой создания внутрироссийской системы регулирования этих выбросов. Как заявил руководитель программы «Климат и энергетика» Всемирного фонда дикой природы (WWF) России Алексей Кокорин, многие положения итогового документа конференции по климату в Париже были внесены российскими переговорщиками, потому соглашение является заслугой дипломатии России. Закладки:

02 октября, 08:00

Присоединившись к Парижскому соглашению по климату, Индия приблизила момент его вступления в силу

В воскресенье Индия стала 62-м государством, присоединившимся к Парижскому соглашению по климату . Таким образом, повышается вероятность того, что Соглашение вступит в силу уже до конца этого года. Генеральный секретарь ООН Пан Ги Мун приветствовал этот шаг Индии, который, по его словам, свидетельствует о дальновидности правительства.

29 сентября, 00:06

FACT SHEET: United States Hosts First-Ever Arctic Science Ministerial to Advance International Research Efforts

Science Ministers from 25 governments and the European Union gathered at the White House to discuss Arctic research priorities and sign a Joint Statement on increased international collaboration on Arctic science and inclusion of Indigenous peoples in understanding and responding to changes in the Arctic The Arctic environment is changing at an unprecedented pace, posing threats to livelihoods and ecosystems. One year after President Obama’s visit to Alaska, and building on his unwavering commitment to advance understanding of changes occurring in the Arctic and their global consequences, today the White House hosted the first-ever Arctic Science Ministerial (ASM). Science Ministers, or their representatives, from 25 governments—Canada, the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Greenland, Iceland, India, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, the Russian Federation, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America—and the European Union and representatives from Arctic Indigenous peoples’ organizations gathered to discuss collective efforts to increase the pace of international scientific collaboration in the Arctic. A capstone of the ASM was the signing and release of a Joint Statement by the delegations gathered today. The Joint Statement recognizes that international collaboration and the inclusion of Arctic Indigenous peoples in science and decision-making are essential to advancing research in the Arctic. The Joint Statement and the ASM help chart a new collective approach in Arctic science that will inform national policies concerning climate-change mitigation and resilience, Arctic development, stewardship, and the needs of the region’s Indigenous peoples.  The Ministers used the occasion of the ASM to highlight several new initiatives. They include: Today, the United States released the first ever Arctic-wide digital elevation model (DEM). The result of a collaboration between the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and the National Science Foundation, this digital representation of the Arctic land surface has an unprecedented high resolution of 8 m. A 2 m resolution Arctic DEM is to be created during the next 12 months and will be an important baseline for assessing future land surface changes. The European Union will initiate a new 5-year project (2016-2021) coordinated by Norway to develop an Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS). The project, with a €15.5 million budget, will involve scientists in 14 European countries (Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greenland, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom), as well as in a number of countries elsewhere in the world (Canada, the Peoples’ Republic of China, the Russian Federation, and the United States, with other countries expected to join). The United States is among the countries that will work with the INTAROS scientists. In 2017, the U.S. Office of Naval Research will initiate a 5-year project—Arctic Mobile Observing System (AMOS)—that will develop new sensors, platforms, and techniques for mobile-observing systems that drift with the moving sea-ice cover, or operate autonomously in the ocean below the ice. The European Union will also initiate two new projects to understand the impact of the changing Arctic on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere. The projects APPLICATE (Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with a Changing Arctic climate) (2016-2020, €8 million budget) and Blue-Action (2016-2021, €7.5 million budget) will involve scientists in 13 European countries (Belgium, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom), as well as in a number of countries elsewhere in the world (Canada, the Peoples’ Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the United States). In 2017, the United Kingdom will begin fieldwork for the “Changing Arctic Ocean Programme”, a five-year research effort to explore the effects of changes to the physical environment (ice and ocean) on the marine ecosystem and the associated biogeochemical functioning of the Arctic Ocean. The United States will support “EyesNorth,” a U.S. National Science Foundation research-coordination network of community-based observing initiatives in the Arctic and beyond. Involving scientists and northern residents in Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, Sweden, the United States, and elsewhere, EyesNorth will expand the science of community-based observing, including the use of Indigenous knowledge and local place-based knowledge, and provide a critical connection between observing environmental change and community preparedness and response. “EyesNorth” will contribute to the work of SAON—Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks—a joint effort of the Arctic Council (through its Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme) and the International Arctic Science Committee. In a further contribution to SAON, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will open a U.S. SAON Office. It will foster interagency and international collaboration in the development of Arctic observing and data systems, as well as the delivery of higher-level data and information to the scientific community and policymakers.  The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will advance STEM education and empower citizens through Arctic STEM cooperative partnerships with the Local Environmental Observer (LEO) Network—a network of local environmental observers and topic experts who apply traditional knowledge, science and technology to document significant, unusual environmental events in Alaska. The U.S. Department of Energy will develop a design-support tool for remote off-grid microgrids in the Arctic; and the Office of Naval Research will support the Alaska Network of Energy Education and Employment (ANEEE). In 2017, the U.S. National Science Foundation will announce new awards for projects that promote public participation in Arctic research. The Smithsonian Institution, in collaboration with the embassies of Denmark and the Russian Federation, will open a new exhibit—Narwhal: Revealing an Arctic Legend—in spring 2017 at the National Museum of Natural History in Washington, DC.  Finland and the United States will collaborate to organize an international Arctic STEM Education Summit during the Finnish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2017–2019). The summit will bring together senior government officials, students, educators, researchers, technologists, and other experts to share best practices and develop new educational partnerships that enhance STEM education. It will facilitate information and resource sharing, foster new education networks, and promote a legacy of formal and informal STEM education and lifelong learning both inside and outside the Arctic. The ASM seeks to deepen international collaborations that enable nations to address large-scale research questions and increase the pace of discovery. Existing national and international observing and research efforts are impressive, but they are not able to meet the demand for comprehensive and integrated information in the Arctic. People in the Arctic are already experiencing significant impacts from climate change. The scale and pace of research must increase to move beyond documenting changes to increasing knowledge and understanding, developing predictive capabilities that inform decision and policy making, and increasing the resilience of Arctic communities and ecosystems. The White House organized the ASM around four themes that reach across national boundaries and provide opportunities to advance understanding of and ability to respond to rapid environmental change in the Arctic. The four themes of the Ministerial and the Joint Statement are: Arctic-Science Challenges and Their Regional and Global Implications Strengthening and Integrating Arctic Observations and Data-Sharing Applying Expanded Scientific Understanding of the Arctic to Build Regional Resilience and to Shape Global Responses Empowering Citizens through Science Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education Leveraging Arctic Science Today’s Arctic Science Ministerial will facilitate progress on each of these themes, described in more detail below. A broad call for deliverables that support the four themes realized more than 150 contributions describing some of the many Arctic science activities of foreign governments and U.S. departments and agencies. Many contributions, described below by theme, are continuing investments that support research efforts critical to long-term and sustained measurements essential to understanding the Arctic. Other contributions, highlighted today at the ASM and summarized above, are new efforts that build on existing work, and address gaps in information critical to advancing new understanding of the Arctic. Theme I: Arctic Science Challenges and Their Regional and Global Consequences The annual average air temperature in the Arctic is rising at more than twice the rate of the annual average global air temperature. This rapid transition in the atmosphere is reflected in rapid transitions on land and in the ocean. The dramatic changes are having a profound impact on Arctic cultures, communities, and ecosystems, and they also have global consequences. Some of the most dramatic changes are occurring in the cryosphere: sea ice, freshwater ice, snow cover, land ice sheets, glaciers, and permafrost. Permafrost is warming and thawing, changing landscape, drainage patterns, and habitats, and increasing the potential for the release of potent greenhouse gases that will amplify Arctic and global warming. Glaciers, mountain ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet are shrinking and contributing to worldwide sea-level rise. Sea-ice extent, thickness, and volume are decreasing, resulting in larger ocean surface waves and greater coastal erosion, compounding the challenges of Indigenous communities that hunt ice-dependent marine mammals. There is also growing evidence that the diminishing sea ice is contributing to changing atmospheric circulation patterns that are affecting weather—including some kinds of extremes—in lower-latitude regions. There is therefore an urgent need for increased monitoring and research to better understand the causes and consequences of the rapidly changing Arctic environmental system. There is also a need for increased effort to incorporate the growing data and knowledge base into improved computer models for enhanced forecasting of weather, water, and ice on hourly to weekly time scales, as well as improved projections of the state of the Arctic System and global climate over yearly to decadal time scales. In recognition of these needs, the tempo of research sponsored by Arctic and non-Arctic countries has already been increasing for some time, with impetus from the eight-nation Arctic Council, the International Arctic Science Committee, the World Meteorological Organization, and a growing number of national centers for polar research. The existing national research efforts and collaborations among them will be the building blocks for expanded international cooperation going forward, facilitated by the information exchanges and networking at the Ministerial and future such meetings expected to follow. Among the existing efforts highlighted at the Ministerial under the “Arctic Science Challenges” theme were: The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is working with scientists in Canada, and with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), to carry out a large, multi-year combined fieldwork and remote-sensing campaign to investigate ecosystem vulnerability and greenhouse gas emissions from boreal forests and tundra in the Arctic region. Italy and the Netherlands are using advanced synthetic aperture radar remote sensing techniques to measure land-surface elevation changes occurring in response to permafrost degradation. Iceland, India, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Spain, and Switzerland are each studying different aspects of how Arctic glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet are losing mass to the ocean and contributing to sea-level rise. The “Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise 2 (IMBIE-2),” a collaboration between scientists supported by the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, provides a framework for assessing recent changes in the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, and has an explicit aim to widen participation to enable the entire scientific community to become involved. The U.S. Office of Naval Research “Stratified Ocean Dynamics of the Arctic” is a 5-year (2016-2021) project that supports scientists in the United States, Republic of Korea, and the United Kingdom to study changes in ocean circulation, stratification, and the flow of heat and their collective impact on sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean. Theme II: Strengthening and Integrating Arctic Observations and Data-Sharing On September 10, Arctic sea-ice reached its annual minimum extent, which tied with 2007 as the second-lowest in the period of satellite observations that began in 1979. All ten of the lowest minimum sea-ice extent values in that period have occurred during the last ten summers (2007–2016) exemplifying the dramatic changes that are occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system. Observations and observation platforms, systems, and networks confirm that the sea ice and other components of the Arctic environmental system—permafrost; snow cover; glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet; terrestrial and marine ecosystems—are all changing at unprecedented rates. Nonetheless, the Arctic remains under-observed and data-sparse. The current observing capabilities need to be sustained and new capabilities need to be added to deliver a comprehensive view of the Arctic environmental system. To maximize the benefits of enhanced Arctic-observing capabilities there needs to be full and open access to data and the value-added information and products derived from the data. Data sharing is essential. Observations are vital for the research described in Theme I. They are also needed for improving weather, water, and sea-ice forecasting, and for projecting how changes in the Arctic will affect conditions around the world and how the Arctic will evolve under different global-emissions scenarios. The current inadequacy of Arctic observing is one of the main reasons for the uncertainties in sea-ice and climate predictions and in projections of climate-change impacts on people, communities, and ecosystems. Since the last International Polar Year began in 2007 there has been a growing awareness of the urgent need to improve Arctic observing capabilities and develop data policies that promote sharing through full and open access. This recognition is reflected in a number of ongoing projects and collaborations that were reviewed at the meeting, including:                                                                   Canada, the Peoples’ Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the United States, working together through the Pacific Arctic Group of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), share responsibility for the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO), a biophysical change detection array in the northernmost Bering Sea and the Chukchi and Beaufort seas. Germany is working with multiple countries to carry out the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) between October 2019 and October 2020. The centerpiece of MOSAiC is the icebreaker “Polarstern”, operated by the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany, which will support year-round observations of the physics of the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean and the biogeochemistry of the ice and ocean as the ship drifts with the moving sea ice. The Russian Federation is developing and improving methods, models, and technologies for hydrometeorological prediction. The World Meteorological Organization has launched the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), which is actually a two-year project running from mid-2017 to mid-2019, aimed at achieving a significant improvement in environmental-prediction capabilities for the polar region and beyond. The Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany hosts the YOPP international coordination office. As contributions to YOPP, Canada is developing a high-resolution coupled environmental prediction system that will enhance the accuracy of high-impact weather event predictions in the North, and the European Space Agency Arctic Earth Observation Impact Assessment is addressing the combination of Earth Observation data streams with a numerical model of the Arctic Ocean sea-ice system using advanced data-assimilation techniques to construct a highly flexible system for Arctic Mission Benefit Analysis (ArcMBA). With support from Norway, the Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) initiative promotes the vision of well-defined, long-lived observing networks that provide users with full and open access to high-quality data that can realize pan-Arctic and global value-added services and societal benefits.   As a contribution to SAON, Norway is establishing SIOS (Svalbard Integrated Arctic Earth Observing System), a research infrastructure coordination organization of 26 partners from Europe and Asia. SIOS promotes more openness, better access, data sharing and knowledge management for the international research community. Canada and the United States continue to collaborate in mapping the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Department of the Interior, Department of State, Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the U.S. Geological Survey are working with Canada and Finland to expand the Local Environmental Observer (LEO) Network into a pan-Arctic network. Theme III: Applying Expanded Scientific Understanding of the Arctic to Build Regional Resilience and to Shape Global Responses Arctic peoples and communities face long-standing challenges that are compounded by environmental, social, and economic changes that are occurring in the Arctic, driven above all by global climate change and its accentuation in the Arctic region. These changes are testing the resilience and sustainability of people and communities. Rapid environmental change, such as degrading permafrost and increasing coastal erosion, is affecting critical infrastructure—buildings; roads, railways and bridges; airports, harbors and ports; and energy-supply chains—and the health and well-being of Arctic residents. It is also exposing the shortcomings of existing capabilities to forecast environmental conditions that affect economic activities and the daily lives of Arctic residents—maritime and air transportation, energy and mines, fisheries, and tourism. In some cases, growing economic activity is challenging the traditional ways of life of Indigenous society. It will be essential to apply the improved scientific understanding and forecasting capabilities sought under Themes 1 and 2 to the development of integrated strategies to meet the basic needs of Arctic people and increase regional resilience and adaptation capacity.  At the same time, improved understanding of how the effects of rapid climate change in the Arctic are affecting both the pace of global climate change and its impacts, including weather patterns and extremes across the Northern Hemisphere, will be important both to motivating increased ambition around climate-change mitigation and to shaping resilience strategies in countries around the globe. Efforts reviewed at the Ministerial under Theme 3 include: Canada will address the topic of coping with a changing environment at local and regional levels by examining case studies of capacity building and partnership development with “Big Science”. Nordforsk—an intergovernmental organization under the Nordic Council of Ministers—supports a Nordic Centre of Excellence that is investigating climate-change effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and impacts on northern societies. NordForsk also supports three additional Nordic Centres of Excellence to collectively focus research on resilience, adaptation, and sustainability as they relate to communities, reindeer husbandry, and resource extraction. In 2015, Japan initiated the 5-year “Arctic Challenges for Sustainability (ArCS)” project. The Netherlands and the Russian Federation are also investing in Arctic sustainable development research. The U.S. Geological Survey is assessing historical shoreline change and Arctic coastal vulnerability, and mapping coastal flooding to develop a database of historical and future wave and storm-surge conditions across the Arctic Ocean for use in development and mitigation planning of infrastructure, communities, and natural-resource management. The Russian Federation is undertaking a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of its Arctic coastal systems and infrastructure for spatial planning of maritime activities and socio-economic development. Norway is studying climate change and its impacts on the Arctic environment and human activities in order to improve the existing integrated management of northern waters. The U.S. Department of Transportation is conducting climate-change vulnerability-assessments and developing adaptation options for Alaska transportation infrastructure. Japan is investigating the predictability of Arctic weather and sea ice in consultation with forecast users such as shipping companies. India is studying the role of the Arctic in modulating the Indian Monsoon over seasonal to millennial time scales. The Republic of Korea is investigating the relationship between Arctic warming and sub-Arctic winter weather in order to enhance prediction capability; Singapore is interested in identifying sensitivities and feedbacks between Arctic change and vulnerable regions of southeast Asia, and is assessing the viability of trans-Arctic shipping routes and analyzing their impact on maritime transportation. Spain is improving process understanding of the large-scale atmospheric response to changing sea ice and assessing the impact of the rapidly changing Arctic on non-Arctic countries, and conducting research into the sustainability of fisheries in the Barents Sea region. China is studying Arctic amplification of warming and the global consequences of sea-ice retreat. Canada, Denmark, the United States and other countries are collaborating to refine, develop and implement the World Meteorological Organization Arctic Polar Regional Climate Center (PRCC) Network concept. It will develop and deliver improved climate products and services in response to the defined needs of Arctic clients and stakeholders for climate information in support of decision-making. Theme IV: Empowering Citizens through Science Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education Leveraging Arctic Science STEM education is essential for sustainable development in the Arctic and vital for preparing young people in the Arctic to face challenges arising from continuing environmental, social, and economic change. Engagement with Arctic science, combined with Arctic Indigenous and local knowledge, will enhance the delivery of education to students in the region, and inclusion of more Arctic science in STEM education in the region will inspire a new generation of locally educated experts to solve Arctic and global-science challenges and empower the citizens of the Arctic to enjoy full participation in decision-making that improves the quality of their lives. Arctic science can also be a catalyst for enhancing STEM education outside of the Arctic. The Arctic can serve as a real-world laboratory to train the next generation of scientists and engineers in a variety of Arctic-relevant disciplines. Activities such as virtual participation in field projects, development of high-impact multimedia educational web content, and student engagement in competitions and summer schools in Arctic locations are all known to be effective tools for education and learning. Activities undertaken as part of the International Polar Year demonstrated that student and public engagement in science can strengthen learning through observations and research about the changing Arctic and how it affects the rest of the world. Efforts reviewed at the Ministerial under this theme include:                                                                                           Norway is supporting the development of a “One Stop Shop for Arctic Knowledge” by the University of the Arctic (UArctic). It unites more than 170 research-focused universities, colleges, and institutes around the circumpolar North of the eight Arctic states, as well as Arctic Council observer states. UARctic will create four new “mini MOOCs” (Massive Open Online Courses) that will provide a basic introduction to the Arctic for a broad audience, and a catalogue of Arctic courses and study programs, and research infrastructure. UArctic will also use web-based, big-data analytics to create an online directory of Arctic-wide research institutions, researchers and research projects, publications, and research trends and gaps to foster international research and education collaboration. The European Union EDU-ARCTIC project supports researchers and educators in the Faroe Islands, France, Iceland, Norway, and Poland to develop an innovative educational program to attract young people to natural sciences and polar research. The Arctic Warrior project in Spain uses educational transmedia and game-design elements to promote Arctic environmental protection. Singapore is working to increase awareness in the Tropics of the changes in the Arctic by convening seminars and conferences. The “Japan-Russia Expert Education Project” will continue to nurture professionals to play leading roles in creating a sustainable future in the Russian Far East and the Arctic. The U.S. Department of the Interior will continue its support for the Alaska Native Science and Engineering Program (ANSEP) at the University of Alaska Anchorage, which is effecting systemic change in STEM education and capacity-building among Alaska Native students. 

28 сентября, 08:00

Президент ВМО призвал учредить Арктическую обсерваторию

Беспрецедентное потепление в Арктике оборачивается повышением уровня моря и негативными последствиями для окружающей среды по всему миру. Вместе с тем таяние арктических льдов открывает новые возможности в сфере транспорта и туризма, сокращает транспортные маршруты между Европой и Восточной Азией. Об этом говорили участники совещания в Белом доме, посвященного арктическим изменениям. Оно прошло под эгидой Всемирной метеорологической организации (ВМО).