Authored by Shannara Johnson via HardAssetAlliance.com, It all started pretty harmlessly: in December 2016, after about 12 months of deliberations, the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions (AAOIFI) and the World Gold Council announced a new “Shari’ah Standard on Gold.” The new standard was celebrated as a potentially big boost for global gold demand as it would give more than 2 billion Muslims in the world access to gold-based financial products that were previously forbidden to them. That included vaulted gold, gold accumulation plans, gold certificates, gold-backed ETFs like GLD, and gold mining stocks. Under Shari’ah law, physical gold was considered a “ribawi item,” which means it could only be used as a currency and worn as jewelry, but it couldn’t be traded for speculation or future value. However, Muslim investors were well aware that the $1.8 trillion Islamic finance business was missing out on important opportunities. Under the new standard, Shari’ah-compliance is guaranteed as long as physical gold is the underlying asset. And we didn’t have long to wait for a brand-new financial product coming from the Islamic world that combines the popularity of Bitcoin with the timeless value of physical gold: OneGram, a gold-backed, fully Shari’ah-compliant crypto currency. The new currency was announced on May 4 at the Ritz Carlton, Dubai International Financial Center—with the official ICO (Initial Coin Offering) following only 17 days later. “In recent years, the Middle East has seen incredible growth in fintech innovations including digital tokens and smart contracts,” said Ibrahim Mohammed, the founder and CEO of OneGram, in his first press release. “With OneGram, we’re excited to provide an opportunity for investors who care about Islamic financial markets and the security of commodity-backed investments to benefit from rapid technological advances in the blockchain industry.” According to OneGram’s website, initially each OneGram coin (OGC) is backed by one gram of gold and can be used for digital payments, just like Bitcoin. The total number of OGCs is fixed and won’t change after the ICO. The digital transaction fees (minus admin costs) will be reinvested to buy more gold. “Therefore,” states the website, “the amount of gold backing each OGC will increase with time.” Plus, of course, a rising gold price and the growing acceptance of OneGram in the market are also poised to pump up its value. Gold and crypto-currency experts are already speculating about the implications of the launch. A recent CoinDesk review stated: Bitcoin is often referred to as a “good” money because of its limited supply, relative fungibility and ease of exchange. If gold can also start to satisfy those requirements, a seismic shift from fiat to digital could be easier to “sell”—the public is predisposed to trust gold, certainly more so than cryptography. It could also open the door to the creation of a new global currency as an alternative to the dollar, something that Russia and China are rumored to be looking at. [Emphasis mine.] We sure do live in interesting times - and it is not all that far-fetched to think that OneGram, or another gold-backed crypto currency like it, could be a stealthy way to introduce a new global gold standard.
Сегодня рынки драгоценных металлов снижаются под влиянием укрепляющегося курса доллара США. Всеобщий оптимизм воцарился на американском фондовом рынке после вынесения на рассмотрение бюджета, предполагающего увеличение расходов на инфраструктурные объекты. Политическая нестабильность остается довольно высокой, но рынки не обращают особого внимания, в ожидании действий ФРС США в июне. Запасы в золотых, серебряных и платиновых ETF-фондах подросли, запасы в палладиевых ETF-фондах снизились. Цены на драгоценные металлы на бирже в Шанхае подросли, объемы торгов средние. Курс юаня к доллару США стабилен. Хороший спрос на физические металлы в настоящее время также поддерживает цены, особенно в Индии и Китае. По оценке Всемирного золотого совета спрос на золото в Индии в 2017 г. составит 650-750 тонн против 674 тонн в 2016 г. Снижение спроса после введения налога GST возможно, но отрасль приспособится к новому налогу в течение 12-18 месяцев.
Каждый месяц в Индию попадает до 10 тонн золота нелегальным способом. Ощутимый удар по контрабанде золота был нанесён в конце 2016 года, когда были введены ограничения на наличные платежи...
Минпромторг России направил на повторное согласование проект российско-китайского соглашения по освоению золоторудного месторождения Ключевское. К первоначальному варианту соглашения были претензии со стороны Минприроды, МИД и других ведомств. В 2016 году китайская госкомпания China National Gold Group заключила сделку с индийской SUN Gold Ltd. о покупке 70%-ной доли в проекте разработки золоторудного месторождения Ключевское в Забайкальском крае. Учитывая, что покупатель — китайская компания, а предмет сделки — рудник Западная — Ключи — имеет стратегическое значение для обеспечения обороны страны и безопасности России, потребовалось заключение межправительственного соглашения между Россией и Китаем. Первоначальный вариант соглашения был отправлен на доработку, а в новом, по словам источника в правительстве, были учтены замечания, которые направили различные министерства. В частности, доля оборудования российского производства, используемого на руднике, должна составлять не менее 40% от общей его стоимости, а переработка руды с извлечением металлов должна осуществляться на территории России. Интересно, что Минприроды в своём отзыве на проект соглашения предлагало увеличить долю используемого оборудования отечественного производства до 50%, но это предложение не нашло поддержки у Минпромторга. У МИД и вовсе возникли сомнения в целесообразности заключения соглашения. — В тексте отсутствуют положения, касающиеся предмета соглашения, т.е. непосредственного сотрудничества сторон, за исключением статьи 3, в которой речь идёт о продаже акций АО "Рудник Западная — Ключи" китайской компании, — отметили в МИД. Запасы Ключевского месторождения составляют по A+B+C1 — 47,8 тонны, С2 — 26,6 тонны, забалансовые — 4 тонны. Лицензией на его освоение владеет АО "Западное — Ключи". Добыча золота на месторождении более десяти лет назад была заморожена. Для эффективной отработки данного месторождения необходимо применять новые технологии вскрыши и производства золота. Содержание золота в рудах — до двух граммов на тонну, при этом драгметалл нужно извлекать из упорных первичных малосульфидных руд. Ранее "Западная — Ключи" планировала в 2006 году запустить на Ключевском месторождении золотоизвлекательную фабрику (ЗИФ), а также начать кучное выщелачивание. При выходе на проектную мощность предприятие рассчитывало добывать до двух тонн золота в год. China National Gold — единственная государственная золотодобывающая компания в Китае, возглавляет китайскую Ассоциацию золота и единственная из китайских компаний входит в World Gold Council.
Финансовые спекулянты окончательно потеряли интерес к золоту и избавляются от него рекордными темпами. Что будет с котировками драгоценного металла? На самом деле, всё намного проще...
Хедж-фонды, которые являются основными игроками на фьючерсном рынке золота, закрывают длинные позиции в контрактах рекордными темпами. Согласно последнему отчету Комиссии по торговле товарными фьючерсами (CFTC) длинная позиция фондов сократилась почти на $6 млрд, и это рекорд за всю историю наблюдений.
Финансовые спекулянты окончательно потеряли интерес к золоту и избавляются от него рекордными темпами. Что будет с котировками драгоценного металла?
Финансовые спекулянты окончательно потеряли интерес к золоту и избавляются от него рекордными темпами. Что будет с котировками драгоценного металла?
Interested in precious metals investing or storage? Contact us HERE The Traitors Abetting The Deep State's Dirty, Dying War on Gold Posted with permission and written by Stewart Dougherty CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL) Evidence is mounting that the Deep State (DS) is starting to lose the dirtiest financial war in history: their War on Gold. More deeply, it is a war against something the Deep State profoundly loathes: personal financial liberty. The War on Gold, which has raged for 37+ years, has generated more than $1 trillion in criminal profits for the Deep State plunderers, while costing the worldwide owners of physical gold multiple trillions of dollars. All of this is coming to an end. Due to its criminal hyper-manipulation, gold’s price has become a paradox: its weakness actually reflects its strength. With everything that has been thrown at it, it is astounding that its price is anything north of zero. The fact that it has been resilient at around $1,200.00 per ounce should concern the manipulators, because if this is as low as they can take it despite their full-spectrum, multi-billion dollar assault against it, then it is defeating them. Which is not surprising. By every conceivable, objective financial and monetary measure, gold is one of the most underpriced assets on earth. It is not going to stay that way. (Most of the dynamics we will discuss also apply to silver, but to streamline this article, we will focus on gold.) The Deep State’s first strategic objective in the War on Gold has been to steal as much money as possible by conspiratorially rigging its price. They have perpetrated this crime in the full knowledge that it will never be investigated or prosecuted, because it is state sponsored. The Deep State is the state, and never prosecutes itself for its own crimes, no matter how flagrant and egregious they are. The second, broader strategic objective has been to discredit gold as a monetary asset and safe financial haven throughout the west. The Deep State realized at the outset of the war that it would be impossible to achieve this in the east, which has a deep, cultural affinity for gold, so they have confined this gambit the west. There are eight primary tactics in the War on Gold. Seven of them are generally known by those who study the gold market; one of them is little known or appreciated. The unknown tactic is actually the most important and effective tactic of all, while also being the Deep State’s Achilles’ heel. The tactics in the War on Gold are: 1) Randomly and unpredictably attack the gold price in the futures markets, producing large price whipsaws, investor losses, and a generalized spirit of price uncertainty, danger and concern; over time, make existing and prospective investors view the market as a corrupt casino rigged against them, causing them to capitulate and leave the field; 2) Employ the most advanced, covert “Black Psychological Operations” (PsyOps) methods, customized for the financial sector by the CIA’s Division of Psychological Warfare, the Fed, the Treasury, the ECB and the BIS, to destroy gold sentiment in the west. As part of this campaign, use the Mainstream Financial Media (MFM) to conduct a continual propaganda campaign denigrating gold in every respect, destroying interest in it; 3) Fraudulently overstate official holdings to create the illusion of massive supply overhang; 4) Sterilize investment funds by steering them into non-auditable paper proxies (e.g., ETFs); 5) Weaken, then destroy the dealer network by killing product demand, spiking dealer costs (e.g., required hedging against relentless price volatility), causing large unhedged losses, demonizing dealers as money launderers and crooks, and wiping out profitability / business viability; 6) Financially weaken miners via crushed prices, making them dependent upon bullion bank (DS) financing and debt, and forcing them to comply with bullion bank orders; 7) Paint phony price charts that enable the “financial services industry” (stock brokers, investment advisers, bankers, etc.) to make gold investing appear stupid, and talk people out of buying gold, particularly in physical form; if this fails, sterilize investment funds by steering them into phony, paper gold; 8) Create a marketing blackout throughout the west (which is the Achilles’ heel). Tactics #1 and 8 are the subject of this article, because they are inextricably linked. It would be impossible for the Deep State to employ Tactic #1 if it were not for their simultaneous use of Tactic #8. As we know, Tactic #1 has been carried out by years’ worth of massive, unpredictably-timed, electronic, naked-short price attacks primarily conducted on the Comex, the Deep State’s captured and non-regulated Command and Control Center. GATA has long documented in exquisite and laudable detail the gold price-rigging scandal, and Deutsche Bank’s admission in late 2016 that they and numerous other major banks manipulated the gold market for years ended, once and for all, any possible doubt about gold market corruption. As is typical in Deep State-sponsored financial crimes, none of the Deep State criminals ever goes to jail; instead, they simply pay fines to the Deep State itself. Deep State criminality is a closed system of plunder from which the profits never leave; they merely circulate from one Deep State pocket to another. Tactic #8, the complete lack of industry-sponsored gold marketing throughout the west, is a crucial component of the War on Gold. Without Tactic #8, the Deep State would be incapable of employing Tactic #1, because the criminalized, fractional reserve gold exchanges, primarily the Comex, would no longer exist. They would no longer exist because they would be unable to source even the minimal amount of physical gold required to create the false illusion of legitimacy, which would fully expose them as being nothing but the paper metal frauds they already are for all intents and purposes. According to the Mainstream Financial Media, gold is a “commodity.” This deliberate mischaracterization of gold is intended to deflect attention away from its unparalleled monetary importance, and make it appear no different in nature from corn, natural gas or pork bellies. Rarely has a greater monetary lie ever been perpetuated. Gold is not a commodity; it is the world’s only natural and universal money, and therefore its pre-eminent consumer product. From the time of its discovery over 6,000 years ago, human beings have instinctively realized that gold is incomparable as pure, honest, incorruptible, reliable, functional, lasting, valuable, and true money and wealth. This is precisely why the Deep State swindlers despise it. It is the antithesis of the immoral, baseless, corrupt, predatory, fraudulent fiat currencies they endlessly and parasitically counterfeit into oblivion at extraordinary profit to themselves and crushing expense to their victims, the people. Providers of consumer products and services know that their offerings must be marketed. Not even the best of them sell themselves; they must be sold. In 2016 alone, corporate managements worldwide spent over $1 trillion to advertise and promote their goods and services. They paid this astronomical sum because they know that marketing is indispensable to commercial success. Marketing is not an expense; it is an investment in profit. We all recognize the phrases marketers have created to bring their products to life: “Just Do It,” “Don’t Leave Home without It,” “The Ultimate Driving Machine,” “Everywhere You Want to Be;” “Good to the Last Drop,” “Where’s the Beef?,” “Be All You Can Be,” “I Love New York,” “We Bring Good Things to Life,” “Think Different,” “Like a Good Neighbor, …;” “When it Absolutely, Positively Has to be There Overnight,” “We Try Harder,” “Diamonds are Forever,” among so many memorable others. There is only one consumer product industry we can identify that does absolutely nothing to develop its market: gold mining. For decades, the miners have refused to lift a finger to promote gold. (Their appointment long ago of the World Gold Council as a marketing agent has been a complete disaster, and its dreary saga could be an article all its own.) This refusal constitutes a colossal rejection by them of the most important business function of all and a total abdication of their fiduciary obligation to shareholders. As a result of the miners’ persistent and indefensible refusal to market gold, western consumer demand for it is a fraction of what it could and should be. We cannot find one senior gold mining corporation that includes in its top executive ranks a Chief Marketing Officer, or any role even resembling it. While we do find senior executives in: “Exploration,” “Operations,” “Investor Relations,” “Technology,” “Corporate Development,” “Regulatory Affairs,” Legal (“General Counsel,” “Compliance”), Finance (“Chief Financial Officer”), “Mergers and Acquisitions,” “Tax,” “Sustainability,” “Human Resources,” and “Strategy,” the marketing function is completely absent throughout senior miner top management. This is unprecedented in consumer commerce. The miners’ refusal to market their product is so idiotic that it must be deliberate. It is impossible that such self-destructive commercial stupidity could come naturally to even one senior mining executive, let alone the entire set of executives in the senior gold mining industry, particularly given its extremely negative consequences. This begs the questions: What is going on here? Why do the gold miners deliberately refuse to market gold, even though it is obvious that market demand and price for it have severely suffered as a result? Why do they deliberately destroy enterprise and shareholder value by ignoring the most important function in consumer commerce: marketing? Why do they willfully and knowingly repudiate their fiduciary obligations to shareholders, creating in the process potentially serious legal liabilities for themselves and their corporations? And why do all senior miners walk in such lunatic lock step when it comes to their refusal to market? Executives at the senior mining companies have a long history of enriching themselves with lavish pay, benefits, pensions and stock options while at the same time stabbing their shareholders in the back. For example, their “forward hedging strategy,” conducted at the behest of and in full collaboration with the bullion banks during the brutal, 22 year gold bear market (1980 – 2001) savaged the prices of gold and mining shares. All the while, rich, no-lose compensation packages for mining executives were written around pre-arranged and hedged gold prices. The shareholders got screwed as the executives got rich. As we can see today, nothing has changed. The miners’ excuse for their multi-decade failure to develop the gold market is that it is “just a commodity,” and no one markets those. Even if we agreed that gold is a commodity, which we adamantly do not for the reasons explained above, the excuse is not credible. In 1993, on a meager annual budget of only $23 million, one of the most successful advertising campaigns of all times was launched for a so-called commodity: “Got Milk?” If creative advertising could make milk exciting, which it did, imagine what it could do to increase interest in and demand for gold. So what’s the problem here? Why is no one in the gold mining industry willing to give marketing a try? What, possibly, have they got to lose, other than the dismal gold price and multi-billions of corporate losses their marketing incompetence has produced over the past 37 years? More specifically, what is it about marketing gold’s incomparable monetary virtues that paralyzes them? It is obvious that the senior mining executives are not working for shareholders. So for whom are they working? The only logical answer we can provide is that the senior miners are direct allies in the Deep State’s War on Gold. By employing Tactic #8, the traitorous miners have damaged gold demand as much as the criminals who use Tactic #1 have damaged its price. The financial cost of the senior miners’ complicity in the War on Gold is astronomical. From 1980 through 2016, excluding China and Russia, approximately 79,000 metric tonnes, or 2.5 billion ounces of gold were mined. During the 1980 – 2001 bear market, gold was virtually given away by the miners for nothing, reaching dirt-cheap, double-bottomed prices of only $250 per ounce in 1999 and 2001. In the bear market that started in 2011 and continues to this day, gold has plunged from an inflation adjusted 2011 high of $2,081 to today’s price around $1,200, which is close to its average, all-in production cost. In other words, 37+ years into the War on Gold, miners continue to give away their shareholders’ gold for a pittance, when they could easily increase its price simply by doing what every other consumer company does: market it. If we assume that the Deep State’s War on Gold has only shaved $100 per ounce off its price, the undervaluation of the gold mined from 1980 - 2016 is $250,000,000,000.00 ($250 billion). While this is an astounding sum, we believe the actual cost is much higher. According to our analysis, the underpricing of gold ranges between $1,000 and $3,000 per ounce, depending on the comparative metric we use (e.g., global money supply; global debt; global private savings; global GDP; global equities; inflation; and the like). By other metrics, it is even more, but we will be conservative. Therefore, the total undervaluation of the gold mined during the War on Gold ranges between $2,500,000,000,000.00 and $7,500,000,000,000.00 ($2.5 to $7.5 TRILLION). This is tantamount to theft from the owners of the mined gold, namely, shareholders. On a global basis, physical gold owned by individuals, businesses, religious organizations and sovereign institutions is currently undervalued by between $5.8 and $17.4 trillion dollars. This is the cost to the world, in gold undervaluation alone, of the Deep State’s criminality, corruption and avarice. Being the home and global headquarters of the Deep State, the United States is the only nation in the world whose #1 export, in currency value, is financial fraud. The War on Gold is suffering from the effects of the Law of Diminishing Returns: it requires more and more Deep State price-rigging to move the gold price down less and less. This is because available supplies of physical gold are rapidly disappearing from west to east, where demand is unquenchable. Tactic #1 is in trouble. In far greater trouble is Tactic #8. When Indian Prime Minister Modi announced his demonetization scheme at 8 PM on November 8, 2016, the social media network throughout India went supernova within minutes. Citizens who acted immediately were able to dump some or all of their “extinguished” rupee notes for food, medicine, gold and whatever else they could get their hands on from shops still open that evening. The next morning was too late, as the fangs of the scheme deeply sank into the nation’s flesh. Social media saved the day for those on the vanguard. Similarly, when the people in large numbers sense that something has become rotten in the state of their money and that their savings and financial well-being are at extreme risk, they will take to Social Media in droves to both seek and give advice on how to protect themselves. When this happens, decades’ worth of Deep State fraud and senior miner traitorousness will be washed away in a matter of hours. We already see in Bitcoin how “electronic currency” can go viral even well before a full-blown financial panic. The current Bitcoin phenomenon demonstrates that the people sense something in the air, and are mobilizing. When the wall of propaganda against gold starts to fall, the people will mobilize into it, as well. As pure money, gold simply has no true competitors. Increasingly, this will become self-evident to tens of millions of people in the west, who will create new demand for it. The physical gold market cannot accommodate such incremental demand at anywhere near the current price. At a certain point, the market will not be able to satisfy physical demand at all, as people realize there is no substitute for and hold on to it for dear life. Nothing on earth produces a price frenzy like a no-offer market. In our view, people will be richly compensated for front running the coming monetary mass awakening, something we view as being absolutely inevitable. Given the world’s exponentially compounding risks and troubles, the fact that we continue to enjoy halcyon, actionable days can only be regarded as an extraordinary gift from God, to all of us. Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts HERE. The Traitors Abetting The Deep State's Dirty, Dying War on Gold Posted with permission and written by Stewart Dougherty CLICK HERE FOR ORIGINAL)
Согласно рейтингу "Всемирного совета по золоту" ("World Gold Council"), казахстан занимает 21 место и з 100 стран - держателей крупнейших золотых запасов
Доброе утро! Доходы России от экспорта нефти в январе-марте 2017 года выросли на 64,68% по сравнению с январем-мартом 2016 года — до 23,209 миллиарда долларов, свидетельствуют данные Федеральной таможенной службы (ФТС) РФ. В физическом выражении РФ увеличила экспорт нефти на 0,78% — до 61,95 миллиона тонн. Экспорт в страны дальнего зарубежья вырос на 4,1% — до 56,085 миллиона тонн. В денежном выражении объем поставок составил 22,052 миллиарда долларов (на 68,6% больше, чем за январь-март 2016 года). Экспорт нефти в страны СНГ снизился на 30,9% — до 4,049 миллиона тонн, в денежном выражении показатель вырос на 13,9% — до 1,157 миллиарда долларов. Экспорт нефтепродуктов из РФ в январе-марте 2017 года вырос на 6,7% — до 41,107 миллиона тонн, в денежном выражении он составил 15,853 миллиарда долларов, что выше аналогичного показателя 2016 года на 66,3%. Экспорт нефтепродуктов в дальнее зарубежье вырос по сравнению с январем-мартом 2016 года на 5,9% — до 38,687 миллиона тонн, в денежном выражении — вырос на 68,8%, до 14,864 миллиарда долларов. Экспорт в страны СНГ вырос на 20,3% — до 2,419 миллиона тонн, в денежном выражении — на 35,98%, до 988,9 миллиона долларов. В том числе, бензина было вывезено 1,259 миллиона тонн, что на 4,4% меньше чем в январе-марте 2016 года; доходы составили 557,7 миллиона долларов (рост на 17,7%). В страны дальнего зарубежья экспорт бензина снизился на 7,58% — до 617,6 тысячи тонн, составив в денежном выражении 295,3 миллиона долларов (рост на 28%), в страны СНГ экспорт бензина снизился на 1,1% — до 642,1 тысяч тонн, доходы составили 262,4 миллиона долларов (рост на 7,9%). Экспорт дизельного топлива в январе-марте 2017 года вырос на 15,13% — до 13,758 миллиона тонн на 6,2 миллиарда долларов (рост на 67,47%). Экспорт в дальнее зарубежье вырос на 13,4% — до 12,76 миллиона тонн на 5,782 миллиарда долларов (рост на 68,1%). Экспорт в страны СНГ вырос на 42,9% — до 990 тысяч тонн на 425,2 миллиона долларов (рост на 58,5%). Во вторник агентство Рейтер сообщило со ссылкой на источник, что Saudi Aramco сократит поставки нефти в Азию примерно на 7 миллионов баррелей в июне. «Когда ОПЕК объявила о сокращении добычи, Саудовская Аравия быстро сообщила своим клиентам в Европе и Соединенных Штатах, что они получат меньшие объемы сырья», — пишет агентство. Нефть на торгах в среду прибавила порядка 3% на вышедшей лучше ожиданий статистики по запасам от EIA. На данный момент на пути роста барреля будет выступать отметка 51$. Инвесторов рынка акций в последнее время больше привлекают Европа и развивающиеся страны, в компании которых они вливают миллиарды долларов, тогда как приток средств в акции США резко сократился. Как пишет The Wall Street Journal, потенциал роста в Европе и на emerging markets на данный момент представляется участникам рынка более высоким, чем в США. Аналитики ожидают, что в ближайшие недели тенденция к перевложению средств из США в Европу лишь усилится. Макроэкономические данные из Европы последние месяцы были оптимистичными, а победа центриста Эммануэля Макрона на президентских выборах во Франции снижает политическую неопределенность, которая заставляла многих инвесторов подождать с вложением капиталов. За семь недель, завершившихся 3 мая, чистый отток средств из фондов акций США составил около $22,2 млрд, свидетельствуют данные EPFR Global. Опрос Bank of America Merrill Lynch показал, что вложения в акции США в апреле снизились до минимума за девять лет. Между тем чистый приток капитала в фонды акций стран Западной Европы в январе-апреле достиг максимума за два года, отмечает EPFR. Акции emerging markets также пользуются спросом у инвесторов благодаря сильным данным о производственной активности и внешней торговле: чистый приток в эти бумаги в первые четыре месяца 2017 года был максимальным с 2013 года. Глава Европейского центрального банка Марио Драги считает необходимым сохранить стимулирующие программы, несмотря на улучшение макроэкономических показателей в еврозоне в последние месяцы. «Пока слишком рано объявлять об успехе», — сказал М.Драги, отметив слабость базовой инфляции и роста зарплат в еврозоне. Основные разногласия касаются сроков сворачивания программы количественного смягчения, в рамках которой ЕЦБ выкупает активы на 60 млрд евро в месяц. В настоящий момент предполагается, что QE продлится как минимум до конца декабря и может быть продлена в случае необходимости. Так же на фоне снижения политических рисков в Европе после победы Макрона котировки золота продолжили снижение. Приток золота в ETF в апреле составил 24,5 тонны — WGC Объем золота в ETF (exchange traded funds — биржевые инвестиционные фонды) по состоянию на конец апреля составил 2 тыс. 277,5 тонны (73,2 млн унций), подсчитал World Gold Council (WGC). Это на 24,5 тонны (1%) больше уровня предыдущего месяца. В денежном выражении объем золота в ETF вырос на 3%, до $92,7 млрд. Основной приток пришелся на североамериканские фонды, объем золота там вырос на 25,4 тонны, до 1 тыс. 221,3 тонны. В том числе SPDR Gold Shares закупил 21 тонну золота (объем вырос до 853,4 тонны), iShares Gold Trust — 4,5 тонны (рост до 204,4 тонны). Европейские фонды прибавили 3,7 тонны, общий объем вырос до 946,2 тонны. В Азии наблюдался отток золота из ETF: объем сократился на 4,9 тонны, до 62,8 тонны. Индекс ММВБ закончил торговую сессию среды на положительной территории немного не дотянув до отметки 2030п. Здесь стоит отметить, что большую часть торогов инструмент рос за счет двух бумаг, Сбербанка (на фоне хорошей отчетности) и Лукойла. На данный момент зона продаж — смена тенденции расположена под отметкой 2010п, основные сопротивления 2055 — 2070п. фРТС ближайшая поддержка расположена в районе 110000п уход и закрепление под которой может снова отправить фьючерс в район 108000п, но здесь стоит отметить, что зона продаж на данный момент расположена под 109100п. Ближайшим сопротивлением выступает 112000 — 112500п. Для регулярного выхода утреннего обзора ставьте пожалуйста плюсы.
Импорт золота в Индию в апреле 2017 года вырос более чем в четыре раза, поскольку производители ювелирных изделий пополняли запасы в ожидании восстановления продаж во время свадебного сезона...
Индия в апреле нарастила импорт золота более чем в четыре раза в годовом выражении - до 98,3 тонны, пишет агентство Блумберг со ссылкой на источник, знакомый с предварительными данными министерства финансов.
Импорт золота в Индию в апреле вырос более чем в четыре раза, поскольку производители ювелирных изделий пополняли запасы в ожидании восстановления продаж во время свадебного сезона, который продлится до середины июня, сообщает Bloomberg.
Импорт золота в Индию в апреле вырос более чем в четыре раза, поскольку производители ювелирных изделий пополняли запасы в ожидании восстановления продаж во время свадебного сезона, который продлится до середины июня, сообщает Bloomberg.
Gold Coins and Bars Demand Rises 9% In Q1, 2017 - Global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t- Total demand -18% from record high levels in Q1, 2016- Demand for coins and bars up 9% yoy to 290 t- UK demand for coins, bars at highest since Q2 2013- ETF inflows fell by 2/3, account for overall -18% fall in demand- European uncertainty brings gold investors to market- Innovation continues to drive gold demand in China- Peak Gold: Mine production likely to drop Global gold demand driven by climb in bar and coin investment Uncertainty in Europe increased demand for gold investment products in the first quarter of the year, according to the World Gold Council's Gold Demand Trends Q1, 2017 report. Across the globe a mixture of festivities and renewed safe haven buying saw demand for gold bars and coins climb by 9%. Demand for physical investment products helped to reduce the the overall fall in gold demand, which came in at 18% yoy, across investment, jewellery and central bank demand. In all, global gold demand across a number of measures points towards a world that is uncertain and to ongoing safe haven demand. In some cases such as in the US, EU and China, demand remains robust whereas in the likes of Turkey demand is down from record levels. Much of this is thanks to geo-political uncertainty and political upheaval. Political uncertainty in Europe has helped to increase demand for gold bullion. Elections (upcoming and past) in the UK, Netherlands, France and Germany have helped to buoy investment in safe haven gold. German gold bar and coin demand had its strongest first quarter since 2011 - 13% yoy to 34.3t, but this must not take away from the UK which hit its highest level since Q2 2013. China (discussed in full below) was a major contributor to the uptick in demand for gold bars and coins, posting a 30% gain. As with its European counterparts, there is much uncertainty over the economic situation of the country and both investors and retailers alike are able to match these feelings with gold purchases. Politics, uncertainty and gold prices make for a mixed bag of jewellery When it comes to jewellery, demand was mixed across the board but overall very low, compared to recent years. Demand was 18% below the 587.7t five year quarterly average. The 9% climb in the USD gold price, meant that there is overall long-term weakness in the sector. Whilst uncertainty can be a positive driver for gold demand, this combined with a high gold price in Turkey saw demand for jewellery sink to a four year low of 7.7t. The looming referendum (held in April) combined with the fact that the price of gold in lira rose more than in any other currency during Q1 (+12%), meant that the fragile political and economic conditions continued to impact the sector. The WGC state that “The outlook for the [Turkish] market is weak” and this is expected to continue as both economic and political reforms keep both uncertainty and the gold price high. In the United States however, a feeling of relief following the US election propelled jewellery demand to its strongest Q1 since 2010 - it rose 3% to 22.9t. The WGC refers to a climb in ‘clicks and mortar’ (online) purchases. There is little doubt that the election hasn’t increased uncertainty, but it seems there is a calm before the storm element to purchasing decisions. In Europe, both the UK and France let the side down when it came to jewellery demand, which fell 6% in the Fifth Republic. Much of the fall was down to uncertainty in the run-up to elections and a spate of terrorist attacks. It seems many buyers are favouring ‘branded silver’ in their jewellery purchases. In the same way that silver coin and bar buyers see silver as better value than gold - it seems that jewellery buyers also may be attracted to getting better value with silver. Investment is better than jewellery - even for romantics On Valentine’s Day we discussed the problems with buying jewellery as an investment. Jewellery is a terrible investment due to the significant mark-up at the point of sale, 'valued added' (VAT) and sales taxes and it’s very poor resale value. We suggested that romantics buy gold coins and bars for their loved ones instead. This advice was perhaps heeded even after Valentine’s Day as gold bars and coins had an excellent quarter, with 289.8t of demand (+9% yoy). Much of this was thanks to China, where safe haven flows, tech innovation and Chinese New Year is helping to push demand (see below). The WGC accounts much of the increase in coin and bar demand to the ‘strength of the retail investment market’ internationally. Companies such as GoldCore are seeing very strong demand - particularly for allocated and segregated storage for risk averse investors looking to own in gold bars and coins. The feeling of uncertainty and uncertain outlook does appear to be driving demand and this is a trend we suspect we will continue to see. Whilst elections have been, or will soon be decided, that does not guarantee the economic result, investors are aware of this and stocking up on gold accordingly. Gold ETFs failed to benefit as much as physical gold Whilst ETF inflows did not experience the same surge as gold bar and coin demand, US demand was strong. As the WGC points out, geopolitical tensions were ‘more of a concern for European based investors than for their US counterparts.’ The report refers to the positivity in the US towards gold, and that the speculative buying seen in 2016 has been ‘reversed in the November/December washout’ leaving strategic investors behind. Having said that the only net inflows were in February, ‘sandwiched between’ outflows in January and March. Collectively in Europe we make for a worried bunch. Europeans increased inflows in gold ETFs, as we saw with gold bar and coin demand. As summarised by the WGC, we are surrounded by both economic and political uncertainty which, with some dips in the gold price, meant we could increase our exposure to gold: ‘On top of a fragile political environment, conditions in financial markets gave investors a further incentive to build their positions in gold-backed ETFs. Safe haven flows pushed two year German yields further into negative territory, reaching a record low of 0.95% in February. And European equity markets were subdued with volatility at multiyear lows. Negative real and nominal yields coupled with a period of relative calm in regional stock markets improved the appeal of gold, particularly as its price strengthened through the quarter. The dips in the euro denominated price of gold in January and March were also taken as a good opportunity to add it to portfolios.’ Gold ETF holdings grew tremendously in 2016. 2017 has failed to keep up as of yet. Inflows were just one-third of those seen in Q1 2016. Unsurprisingly the WGC do not seem unduly worried, despite pointing towards the fact that Q1’s figures might be pointing to a wider financial issue, ‘inflows of 109.1t are in line with quarterly average between Q1 2009 and Q4 2011 (108.7t), a period that encompassed the global financial crisis.’ Whilst calm is often seen settling across a market after a surge such as that seen in 2017, we wonder if we will continue to see a slow-down in ETF inflows, especially if averages such as these have not been since since the financial crisis. Earlier this week we wrote about the tenuous London property market and asked if this was an indicator of a bubble about to burst, setting off a domino affect around the world. This would obviously lead to even greater safe haven flows and demand. Innovation holds key to future of China’s gold market Whilst the gold market is one of the oldest in the world, it is markedly different from how it once began. Gold bullion dealers and jewellery sellers have made a concerted effort to keep up with innovations across the technological, investment and retail spaces. This is more important today than it has ever been. In China, there has long been concern that China’s millennial population will not look at gold in the same way as their elders do. The WGC cites research from Agility Research & Strategy which shows the top three priorities for young Chinese are ‘health, travel and spending time with the family’. This, combined with concerns over the economy, has prompted worries for the future of the world’s largest gold market. However, innovation both technological and in marketing suggests that the Chinese gold market has a resilient and fruitful future. As the WGC writes, “the industry is keen and determined to adapt – an attitude that should help stem any weakness.” In the jewellery space, where demand was slightly down by 2% thanks to high gold prices following Chinese New Year, sellers are providing services and products to keep up with today’s younger generations - such as more modern 18k gold jewellery pieces, rather than the traditional 22k gold designs. In a perhaps more reflective sign of the times, sellers of bridal jewellery are ‘offering customers a no-cost exchange option on jewellery from its bridal range.’ Jewellery demand may have experienced a small decline, but gold bars and coins saw a 30% increase (yoy), its fourth best quarter on record. We would generally expect the first quarter of the year to be a strong one for China, given their New Year, however it was this combined with concerns regarding the economy (falling yuan and property market) that drove demand to 105.9t. Some of this stellar demand can be attributed to the innovation appearing in the local gold market, namely interest-paying gold accounts, benchmarked on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE)’s AU9999 contract with a minimum entry point of one gram. It is traded online, with an option for physical delivery - all important for Chinese investors. Online developments continue with 800 million WeChat users being given access to MicroGold, a physical gold-backed product offered by ICBC. Digital gold can be traded between individuals, online, supporting festivals and culturally significant events with ‘red envelopes.’ These moves, combined with recent changes supported by the government have lead to an imbalance between supply and demand. Premiums have shot up over global gold price in recent month, they averaged $17/oz in Q4, 2016, and averaged down to US$14.2/oz. India, cashless push was merely a setback but innovation required India had a tumultuous year last year, the second-half of 2016 saw Modi take the country by surprise when he announced the removal of old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000, throwing millions of people into financial chaos. The announcement was particularly badly timed due to wedding season which is vital to the country’s gold industry. Since then gold demand has managed to find some calm. Whilst global jewellery demand remains weak with just a 1% increase in Q1 India has propped it up, despite rising gold prices, posting a 16% gain. The 16% gain isn’t really much to shout about, given it is only the third quarter this decade where demand has come in at less than 100t (92.3t). There is still some wariness in terms of how the next phase of remonetisation will play out, combined with uncertainty over the forthcoming Goods & Service Tax (GST), which is dampening demand somewhat. We would suggest that there is something to be learnt both at the business and political level when it comes to innovation in the gold market. This is perhaps coming to pass as the WGC’s field research found that not only are consumers gradually adopting cashless payments, but cashless transactions are ‘gathering momentum’. Retailers such as Tanishq reported a ‘quite significant recovery’ in Q1, on account of cashless transactions. At this point we should issue a word of warning, as we did when India announced its move to cashless and the topic became the point of discussion in economic circles. Whilst cashless is publicised as a way to make economies more efficient, to reduce tax evasion and to prevent other criminal activities it is also there to serve an ulterior motive - as we wrote a few month’s ago: “A cashless world means a transparent world, which is great if terrorists were the only ones using cash. But they’re really not, so a cashless world means transparent bank accounts which means restricted banks accounts.” This is perhaps yet another reason why gold demand is recovering in India. Trivial sales in Central Bank demand Whilst purchases buy central banks slowed, they remained robust - especially from Russia and China - and central bank sales remain nearly non existent and are set to do so. Quarterly net purchases were 76.3t (a six year low) and a 27% fall yoy. Russia and Kazakhstan were the main buyers in the quarter. China’s gold reserves still represent just 2% of their total reserves, despite not adding to the reserves since October 2016. The ratio hit 2.4% in Q1, its highest point since the early 2000s and the reason perhaps for no further purchases since 2016. It is also worth noting the pressure their FX reserves have felt for some time having dropped from US$3.2 trillion in January 2016 to US$3 trillion in January 2017. Peak Gold: Mine production likely to drop There are many tidbits of information in the WGC’s report about overall mine production in Q1 2017. Indonesia accounted for the largest impact on the fall in production, thanks to a fall on 8t from its Grasberg region. There were also some areas of growth, however physical gold investors mainly need to be aware of the following summary from the WGC: “Having plateaued in recent years, mine production will soon enter a period of decline. The production profile of currently operating mines shows a relatively steep drop-off over the next 5 to 10 years. Even factoring in high probability projects (those highly likely to reach commercial production), the fall in production is still significant.” The negative feeling from the WGC is attributed to cuts in capital expenditure but most importantly the fact that there just aren’t that many new discoveries of gold. “Inevitably, the supply pipeline will be squeezed…The speed at which production will fall is uncertain. As existing reserves are depleted, the current project pipeline will be unable to replace them fully. Over the longterm, the global production profile will depend on the trajectory of the gold price and potential exploration upside, particularly the speed with which brownfield exploration can be brought into production” Conclusion: Buy physical gold - not making much more of it The news that gold production is falling and the near certainty that production levels will fall in the coming months and years should be enough to encourage investors to buy gold. Even if political and economic turmoil weren’t a factor in every major country, gold demand would still be pertinent thanks to the issue of peak gold. However, it is the imminent feeling of uncertainty and growing instability which is driving investors to allocate more of their investment and pension portfolios to gold bars, coins and ETFs. The motto ‘Stay calm and carry on’ is no longer relevant, it should be ‘stay calm and buy gold’. News and Commentary Gold up on buying, euro strength after Macron’s win in France (Reuters.com) Euro Edges Higher as Macron Beats Le Pen in French Election (Bloomberg.com) Lower gold prices bolster gold demand; premiums rise in India, China (Reuters.com) Chinese demand for gold bars and coins soars in first quarter (People.cn) Hong Kong exchange operator hopes for third time lucky when it comes to gold futures (SCMP.com) China gold reserves unchanged at end-April (Reuters.com) Gold Demand Trends Q1 2017 (Gold.org) Gold-Futures Shorting Attacks (321Gold.com) Jaw-Dropping 4,700 Tonnes Of Paper Silver Sold In Just 2 Hours (KingWorldNews.com) Attacks on gold don't come from mere 'speculators' (Gata.org) Greatest Ponzi Scheme in History (DailyReckoning.com) Avoid Digital & ETF Gold – Key Gold Storage Must Haves Gold Prices (LBMA AM) 08 May: USD 1,229.70, GBP 948.71 & EUR 1,123.45 per ounce05 May: USD 1,239.40, GBP 958.06 & EUR 1,130.33 per ounce04 May: USD 1,235.85, GBP 958.15 & EUR 1,131.05 per ounce03 May: USD 1,253.95, GBP 971.18 & EUR 1,148.99 per ounce02 May: USD 1,255.80, GBP 974.25 & EUR 1,150.19 per ounce28 Apr: USD 1,265.55, GBP 978.40 & EUR 1,156.84 per ounce27 Apr: USD 1,264.30, GBP 980.21 & EUR 1,160.63 per ounce Silver Prices (LBMA) 08 May: USD 16.38, GBP 12.64 & EUR 14.96 per ounce05 May: USD 16.27, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.85 per ounce04 May: USD 16.50, GBP 12.80 & EUR 15.09 per ounce03 May: USD 16.85, GBP 13.04 & EUR 15.44 per ounce02 May: USD 16.95, GBP 13.12 & EUR 15.53 per ounce28 Apr: USD 17.41, GBP 13.45 & EUR 15.92 per ounce27 Apr: USD 17.46, GBP 13.53 & EUR 16.02 per ounce Recent Market Updates - Irish Property Bubble – 38pc Believe Housing Market Will Crash- Silver Bullion On Sale After 10.6% Fall In Two Weeks- London Property Bubble Vulnerable To Crash- Silver price manipulation, is regulation putting a stop to it?- Trump 100, Margin Debt Stock Bubble and Gold- Gold Bullion Imports Into China via Hong Kong More Than Doubles in March- LePen Euro Frexit Panic Over – “For Now”- Gold Sovereigns – ‘Treasure’ Trove Found In UK – Don’t Be The Piano Owner- Silver, Platinum and Palladium as Investments – Research Shows Diversification Benefits- When Trump Turns On “Enemy Within” Fed It May Create 1970s Style Stagflation- Silver Production Has “Huge Decline” In 2nd Largest Producer Peru- Gold Erases Post- Election Fall as Trump Wrong on Dollar- Perth Mint Silver Bullion Sales Rise 43% In March Access Award Winning Daily and Weekly Updates Here
Мировой спрос на золото в I квартале 2017 года упал на 18% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года - до 1,345 тонны. Об этом говорится в отчете World Gold Council (WGC). Во многом снижение связано с высокой базой сравнения: потребление золота в январе-марте 2016 года был рекордным для первого квартала. Приток золота в ETF (exchange traded funds - биржевые инвестиционные фонды) в I квартале 2017 года составил солидные 109,1 тонны, что, тем не менее, втрое меньше притока в I квартале 2016 года...